WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk logistical problems

  1. Modeling risk and uncertainty in designing reverse logistics problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Nazari Gooran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Increasing attention to environmental problems and social responsibility lead to appear reverse logistic (RL issues in designing supply chain which, in most recently, has received considerable attention from both academicians and practitioners. In this paper, a multi-product reverse logistic network design model is developed; then a hybrid method including Chance-constrained programming, Genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation, are proposed to solve the developed model. The proposed model is solved for risk-averse and risk-seeking decision makers by conditional value at risk, sum of the excepted value and standard deviation, respectively. Comparisons of the results show that minimizing the costs had no direct relation with the kind of decision makers; however, in the most cases, risk-seeking decision maker gained more return products than risk-averse ones. It is clear that by increasing returned products to the chain, production costs of new products and material will be reduced and also by this act, environmental benefits will be created.

  2. SELECTED PROBLEMS OF REVERSE LOGISTICS IN POLAND

    OpenAIRE

    Agata Mesjasz-Lech

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the essence of reverse logistics and directions of physical and information flows between logistic network partners. It also analyses effects of implementation of the principles of reverse logistics in Poland in the years 2004-2007

  3. Space Station logistics policy - Risk management from the top down

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paules, Granville; Graham, James L., Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Considerations are presented in the area of risk management specifically relating to logistics and system supportability. These considerations form a basis for confident application of concurrent engineering principles to a development program, aiming at simultaneous consideration of support and logistics requirements within the engineering process as the system concept and designs develop. It is shown that, by applying such a process, the chances of minimizing program logistics and supportability risk in the long term can be improved. The problem of analyzing and minimizing integrated logistics risk for the Space Station Freedom Program is discussed.

  4. Assessment of Logistics Risk using Collective Artificial Intelligence

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    Skitsko Volodymyr I.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In substantiating management decisions in logistics, there can be used various economic and mathematical methods and models for quantitative risk assessment constructed with the help of a variety of instruments. Due to the increase in the processing power of computer equipment, economic and mathematical models become more complex, more precise, and the range of modeling tools expands. The current promising area in mathematical modeling is collective artificial intelligence, with the help of which it is possible to effectively solve weakly structured, multi-criteria, multi-purpose, complex economic problems. The mathematical model of the bat algorithm, the basic rules and steps of its functioning are presented, the application of the bat algorithm to solve the multi-index transport problem in the formulation of which the logistics risk is taken into account is shown, and the way to assess the logistics risk using the results of the functioning of the bat algorithm is shown.

  5. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  6. Constraint Optimization for Highly Constrained Logistic Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mochnacs, Maria Kinga; Tanaka, Meang Akira; Nyborg, Anders

    This report investigates whether propagators combined with branch and bound algorithm are suitable for solving the storage area stowage problem within reasonable time. The approach has not been attempted before and experiments show that the implementation was not capable of solving the storage ar...

  7. Problems of logistic systems sustainable development in delivery chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Realization of supply chains management paradigm, covering significantly more volumes of logistic space, logically leads to complication of logistic systems, which, in its turn, arises significant number of problems of both theoretical and practical character. In our opinion, not all the aspects of logistic systems design and their sustainable functioning have received by the present time corresponding coverage in scientific literature. More detailed consideration requires specific problems of logistic systems interaction with their environment. We can talk about formation of new scientific direction (which we suggest to name logistic environics, being applied addition to classical approach to design of logistic systems. Methods: the formalized description of interaction process for logistic systems with the environment was presented and discussed  from ecological, social, economical, organizational and technological, technical, natural scientific positions. Results and conclusions: There is an interaction between logistics systems and the environment, but formalized description of logistic systems interaction process with the environment requires performance of complex interdisciplinary research from many different positions.

  8. Location of Urban Logistic Terminals as Hub Location Problem

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    Jasmina Pašagić Škrinjar

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the problems of locating urban logistic terminals are studied as hub location problems that due to a large number of potential nodes in big cities belong to hard non-polynomial problems, the so-called NP-problems. The hub location problems have found wide application in physical planning of transport and telecommunication systems, especially systems of fast delivery, networks of logistic and distribution centres and cargo traffic terminals of the big cities, etc. The paper defines single and multiple allocations and studies the numerical examples. The capacitated single allocation hub location problems have been studied, with the provision of a mathematical model of selecting the location for the hubs on the network. The paper also presents the differences in the possibilities of implementing the exact and heuristic methods to solve the actual location problems of big dimensions i.e. hub problems of the big cities.

  9. Risk assessment of logistics outsourcing based on BP neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaofeng; Tian, Zi-you

    The purpose of this article is to evaluate the risk of the enterprises logistics outsourcing. To get this goal, the paper first analysed he main risks existing in the logistics outsourcing, and then set up a risk evaluation index system of the logistics outsourcing; second applied BP neural network into the logistics outsourcing risk evaluation and used MATLAB to the simulation. It proved that the network error is small and has strong practicability. And this method can be used by enterprises to evaluate the risks of logistics outsourcing.

  10. Computing group cardinality constraint solutions for logistic regression problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yong; Kwon, Dongjin; Pohl, Kilian M

    2017-01-01

    We derive an algorithm to directly solve logistic regression based on cardinality constraint, group sparsity and use it to classify intra-subject MRI sequences (e.g. cine MRIs) of healthy from diseased subjects. Group cardinality constraint models are often applied to medical images in order to avoid overfitting of the classifier to the training data. Solutions within these models are generally determined by relaxing the cardinality constraint to a weighted feature selection scheme. However, these solutions relate to the original sparse problem only under specific assumptions, which generally do not hold for medical image applications. In addition, inferring clinical meaning from features weighted by a classifier is an ongoing topic of discussion. Avoiding weighing features, we propose to directly solve the group cardinality constraint logistic regression problem by generalizing the Penalty Decomposition method. To do so, we assume that an intra-subject series of images represents repeated samples of the same disease patterns. We model this assumption by combining series of measurements created by a feature across time into a single group. Our algorithm then derives a solution within that model by decoupling the minimization of the logistic regression function from enforcing the group sparsity constraint. The minimum to the smooth and convex logistic regression problem is determined via gradient descent while we derive a closed form solution for finding a sparse approximation of that minimum. We apply our method to cine MRI of 38 healthy controls and 44 adult patients that received reconstructive surgery of Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) during infancy. Our method correctly identifies regions impacted by TOF and generally obtains statistically significant higher classification accuracy than alternative solutions to this model, i.e., ones relaxing group cardinality constraints. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Analysis of an Automated Vehicle Routing Problem in Logistics considering Path Interruption

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    Yong Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The application of automated vehicles in logistics can efficiently reduce the cost of logistics and reduce the potential risks in the last mile. Considering the path restriction in the initial stage of the application of automated vehicles in logistics, the conventional model for a vehicle routing problem (VRP is modified. Thus, the automated vehicle routing problem with time windows (AVRPTW model considering path interruption is established. Additionally, an improved particle swarm optimisation (PSO algorithm is designed to solve this problem. Finally, a case study is undertaken to test the validity of the model and the algorithm. Four automated vehicles are designated to execute all delivery tasks required by 25 stores. Capacities of all of the automated vehicles are almost fully utilised. It is of considerable significance for the promotion of automated vehicles in last-mile situations to develop such research into real problems arising in the initial period.

  12. Sequential Inverse Problems Bayesian Principles and the Logistic Map Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Lian; Farmer, Chris L.; Moroz, Irene M.

    2010-09-01

    Bayesian statistics provides a general framework for solving inverse problems, but is not without interpretation and implementation problems. This paper discusses difficulties arising from the fact that forward models are always in error to some extent. Using a simple example based on the one-dimensional logistic map, we argue that, when implementation problems are minimal, the Bayesian framework is quite adequate. In this paper the Bayesian Filter is shown to be able to recover excellent state estimates in the perfect model scenario (PMS) and to distinguish the PMS from the imperfect model scenario (IMS). Through a quantitative comparison of the way in which the observations are assimilated in both the PMS and the IMS scenarios, we suggest that one can, sometimes, measure the degree of imperfection.

  13. LOGISTICS RISK RESEARCH OF PREFABRICATED HOUSE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING BASED ON CREDIBILITY METHOD

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    Xiaoping Bai

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the prefabricated house industry has rapid development,.Because of fewer suppliers, higher demand transport scheme and complex quality test, the risks of construction engineering logistics links are relatively high. Studying how to effectively evaluate the risks of construction engineering logistics links is significant. According to the characteristics of the prefabricated house construction engineering, we analyse the construction engineering logistics risks and use the combined weights method to determine the weight of indexes which contains both subjective and objective factors, to improve the scientific value and the validity of the assessment. Based on credibility measure method, a new logistics risk evaluation model in prefabricated housing is established to estimate the risk during making prefabricated house construction engineering. The presented model can avoid the subjectivity of selecting the membership function and solve the problem of how to comprehensively assess the construction engineering logistics risk in a certain extent.

  14. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

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    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  15. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

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    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  16. Multistage Logistic Network Optimization under Disruption Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Rusman, Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    Getting over disruptions risk has been a challenging issue for many companies under the globalization that will link to potential external source such as demand uncertainties, natural disasters, and terrorist attacks. The disruption is an unexpected event that disturbs normal flows of products and materials within a supply chain. The disruption at one members of supply chain will propagate the offers and finally affect significant impacts on the entire chain. If we look back...

  17. Risk matrix model applied to the outsourcing of logistics' activities

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    Fouad Jawab

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper proposes the application of the risk matrix model in the field of logistics outsourcing. Such an application can serve as the basis for decision making regarding the conduct of a risk management in the logistics outsourcing process and allow its prevention. Design/methodology/approach: This study is based on the risk management of logistics outsourcing in the field of the retail sector in Morocco. The authors identify all possible risks and then classify and prioritize them using the Risk Matrix Model. Finally, we have come to four possible decisions for the identified risks. The analysis was made possible through interviews and discussions with the heads of departments and agents who are directly involved in each outsourced activity. Findings and Originality/value: It is possible to improve the risk matrix model by proposing more personalized prevention measures according to each company that operates in the mass-market retailing. Originality/value: This study is the only one made in the process of logistics outsourcing in the retail sector in Morocco through Label’vie as a case study. First, we had identified as thorough as we could all possible risks, then we applied the Risk Matrix Model to sort them out in an ascending order of importance and criticality. As a result, we could hand out to the decision-makers the mapping for an effective control of risks and a better guiding of the process of risk management.

  18. Solving Complex Logistics Problems with Multi-Artificial Intelligent System

    OpenAIRE

    Tse, Y.K.; Chan, T.M.; Lie, R.H.

    2009-01-01

    The economy, which has become more information intensive, more global and more technologically dependent, is undergoing dramatic changes. The role of logistics is also becoming more and more important. In logistics, the objective of service providers is to fulfill all customers? demands while adapting to the dynamic changes of logistics networks so as to achieve a higher degree of customer satisfaction and therefore a higher return on investment. In order to provide high quali...

  19. Solving Complex Logistics Problems with Multi-Artificial Intelligent System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.K. Tse

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The economy, which has become more information intensive, more global and more technologically dependent, is undergoing dramatic changes. The role of logistics is also becoming more and more important. In logistics, the objective of service providers is to fulfill all customers? demands while adapting to the dynamic changes of logistics networks so as to achieve a higher degree of customer satisfaction and therefore a higher return on investment. In order to provide high quality service, knowledge and information sharing among departments becomes a must in this fast changing market environment. In particular, artificial intelligence (AI technologies have achieved significant attention for enhancing the agility of supply chain management, as well as logistics operations. In this research, a multi-artificial intelligence system, named Integrated Intelligent Logistics System (IILS is proposed. The objective of IILS is to provide quality logistics solutions to achieve high levels of service performance in the logistics industry. The new feature of this agile intelligence system is characterized by the incorporation of intelligence modules through the capabilities of the case-based reasoning, multi-agent, fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks, achieving the optimization of the performance of organizations.

  20. Advanced colorectal neoplasia risk stratification by penalized logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yunzhi; Yu, Menggang; Wang, Sijian; Chappell, Richard; Imperiale, Thomas F

    2016-08-01

    Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States. To facilitate the efficiency of colorectal cancer screening, there is a need to stratify risk for colorectal cancer among the 90% of US residents who are considered "average risk." In this article, we investigate such risk stratification rules for advanced colorectal neoplasia (colorectal cancer and advanced, precancerous polyps). We use a recently completed large cohort study of subjects who underwent a first screening colonoscopy. Logistic regression models have been used in the literature to estimate the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia based on quantifiable risk factors. However, logistic regression may be prone to overfitting and instability in variable selection. Since most of the risk factors in our study have several categories, it was tempting to collapse these categories into fewer risk groups. We propose a penalized logistic regression method that automatically and simultaneously selects variables, groups categories, and estimates their coefficients by penalizing the [Formula: see text]-norm of both the coefficients and their differences. Hence, it encourages sparsity in the categories, i.e. grouping of the categories, and sparsity in the variables, i.e. variable selection. We apply the penalized logistic regression method to our data. The important variables are selected, with close categories simultaneously grouped, by penalized regression models with and without the interactions terms. The models are validated with 10-fold cross-validation. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the penalized regression models dominate the receiver operating characteristic curve of naive logistic regressions, indicating a superior discriminative performance. © The Author(s) 2013.

  1. Logistic regression for risk factor modelling in stuttering research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Phil; Wu, Yaqionq

    2013-06-01

    To outline the uses of logistic regression and other statistical methods for risk factor analysis in the context of research on stuttering. The principles underlying the application of a logistic regression are illustrated, and the types of questions to which such a technique has been applied in the stuttering field are outlined. The assumptions and limitations of the technique are discussed with respect to existing stuttering research, and with respect to formulating appropriate research strategies to accommodate these considerations. Finally, some alternatives to the approach are briefly discussed. The way the statistical procedures are employed are demonstrated with some hypothetical data. Research into several practical issues concerning stuttering could benefit if risk factor modelling were used. Important examples are early diagnosis, prognosis (whether a child will recover or persist) and assessment of treatment outcome. After reading this article you will: (a) Summarize the situations in which logistic regression can be applied to a range of issues about stuttering; (b) Follow the steps in performing a logistic regression analysis; (c) Describe the assumptions of the logistic regression technique and the precautions that need to be checked when it is employed; (d) Be able to summarize its advantages over other techniques like estimation of group differences and simple regression. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. THE MAIN PROBLEMS OF DEVELOPMENT OF LOGISTIC CENTERS IN RUSSIAN REGIONS

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    Sergey Kalenteev

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The article covers the problem of the formation of modern logistics centers in Russia: the absence of a common interpretation of the term "logistics center", the lack of legislative frameworks formation and operation of logistics infrastructure, the underestimation of the social significance of logistics centers. There are suggestions to set of measures to remove barriers to service quality logistics services in the article.

  3. Interrelationships of risks faced by third party logistics service providers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Govindan, Kannan; Chaudhuri, Atanu

    2016-01-01

    insights. Results show that arms-length relationship between the customer and the 3PLs has strong influence on other risks and there is a need for collaborative relationships between 3PLs and its customers. Moreover, analysis indicates that the 3PLs need to improve internal processes related to quality......This paper analyses the interrelationships between risks faced by third party logistics service providers (3PLs) in relation to one of its customers using DEMATEL. Novel analysis of both within and between risk categories and generation of threshold value to prioritize risks generate useful...... management, flexibility of its operations and also geographical coverage of their services....

  4. Modeling logistic performance in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijgersberg, Hajo; Tromp, Seth; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage times, temperatures, gas conditions, and their distributions) are determined. However, the logistic chain with its queues (storages, shelves) and mechanisms for ordering products is usually not taken into account. As a consequence, storage times-mutually dependent in successive steps in the chain-cannot be described adequately. This may have a great impact on the tails of risk distributions. Because food safety risks are generally very small, it is crucial to model the tails of (underlying) distributions as accurately as possible. Logistic performance can be modeled by describing the underlying planning and scheduling mechanisms in discrete-event modeling. This is common practice in operations research, specifically in supply chain management. In this article, we present the application of discrete-event modeling in the context of a QMRA for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh-cut iceberg lettuce. We show the potential value of discrete-event modeling in QMRA by calculating logistic interventions (modifications in the logistic chain) and determining their significance with respect to food safety.

  5. Evaluation of risk management status for Croatian logistic operators

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    Diana BOŽIĆ

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding organisational risks makes possible to control them and to change them into organisational strengths. Being known as “measure of uncertainty” in the business process, the risk is the uncertainty of achieving the organizational objectives. It may involve positive or negative consequences. There is a level of uncertainty in every supply chain while operating transportation and warehousing, positioning on the market, developing customer support, reducing cycle times or cutting costs. Therefore, the risk assessment should be one of the main tasks for any supply chain management team. It is required to develop formal risk assessment procedures, to identify the potential impacts to the supply chain operations and to develop a set of contingency plans to mitigate risks. This paper deals with supply chain risk assessment methodology, outlining the present risk management status of Croatian logistic operators.

  6. AREVA Logistics Business Unit Transportation Risk Management Initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anne, C.

    2009-01-01

    A safe, secure and reliable transportation organization is a key component for the success of the nuclear industry. With the forecasted increase of radioactive material transport flows in future and the changing environment, AREVA Logistic Business Unit (L-BU) must ensure that safety and security risks are minimized but also ensure of the chain supply for its various facilities (mines, conversion, enrichment, fuel manufacturing, reprocessing, etc). AREVA L-BU Unit is implementing a transportation risk management initiative for the radioactive shipments of the AREVA group across all the Business Unit involved in shipments of radioactive and nuclear materials. The paper will present the four main components of the risk management. (authors)

  7. PROGRAMMING OF METHODS FOR THE NEEDS OF LOGISTICS DISTRIBUTION SOLVING PROBLEMS

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    Andrea Štangová

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Logistics has become one of the dominant factors which is affecting the successful management, competitiveness and mentality of the global economy. Distribution logistics materializes the connesciton of production and consumer marke. It uses different methodology and methods of multicriterial evaluation and allocation. This thesis adresses the problem of the costs of securing the distribution of product. It was therefore relevant to design a software product thet would be helpful in solvin the problems related to distribution logistics. Elodis – electronic distribution logistics program was designed on the basis of theoretical analysis of the issue of distribution logistics and on the analysis of the software products market. The program uses a multicriterial evaluation methods to deremine the appropriate type and mathematical and geometrical method to determine an appropriate allocation of the distribution center, warehouse and company.

  8. A Novel Intensive Distribution Logistics Network Design and Profit Allocation Problem considering Sharing Economy

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    Mi Gan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid growth of logistics distribution highlights the problems including the imperfect infrastructure of logistics distribution network, the serious shortage of distribution capacity of each individual enterprise, and the high cost of distribution in China. While the development of sharing economy makes it possible to achieve the integration of whole social logistic resources, big data technology can grasp customer’s logistics demand accurately on the basis of analyzing the customer’s logistics distribution preference, which contributes to the integration and optimization of the whole logistics resources. This paper proposes a kind of intensive distribution logistics network considering sharing economy, which assumes that all the social logistics suppliers build a strategic alliance, and individual idle logistics resources are also used to deal with distribution needs. Analyzing customer shopping behavior by the big data technology to determine customer’s logistics preference on the basis of dividing the customer’s logistics preference into high speed, low cost, and low pollution and then constructing the corresponding objective function model according to different logistics preferences, we obtain the intensive distribution logistics network model and solve it with heuristic algorithm. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the mechanism of interest distribution of the participants in the distribution network and puts forward an improved interval Shapley value method considering both satisfaction and contribution, with case verifying the feasibility and effectiveness of the model. The results showed that, compared with the traditional Shapley method, distribution coefficient calculated by the improved model could be fairer, improve stakeholder satisfaction, and promote the sustainable development of the alliance as well.

  9. A simultaneous facility location and vehicle routing problem arising in health care logistics in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veenstra, Marjolein; Roodbergen, Kees Jan; Coelho, Leandro C.; Zhu, Stuart X.

    2018-01-01

    This paper introduces a simultaneous facility location and vehicle routing problem that arises in health care logistics in the Netherlands. In this problem, the delivery of medication from a local pharmacy can occur via lockers, from where patients that are within the coverage distance of a locker

  10. The waste collection vehicle routing problem with time windows in a city logistics context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buhrkal, Katja Frederik; Larsen, Allan; Røpke, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    Collection of waste is an important logistic activity within any city. In this paper we study how to collect waste in an efficient way. We study the Waste Collection Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Window which is concerned with finding cost optimal routes for garbage trucks such that all garbage...

  11. A Food Chain Algorithm for Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem with Recycling in Reverse Logistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Qiang; Gao, Xuexia; Santos, Emmanuel T.

    2015-12-01

    This paper introduces the capacitated vehicle routing problem with recycling in reverse logistics, and designs a food chain algorithm for it. Some illustrative examples are selected to conduct simulation and comparison. Numerical results show that the performance of the food chain algorithm is better than the genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization as well as quantum evolutionary algorithm.

  12. A Multi-Stage Reverse Logistics Network Problem by Using Hybrid Priority-Based Genetic Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jeong-Eun; Gen, Mitsuo; Rhee, Kyong-Gu

    Today remanufacturing problem is one of the most important problems regarding to the environmental aspects of the recovery of used products and materials. Therefore, the reverse logistics is gaining become power and great potential for winning consumers in a more competitive context in the future. This paper considers the multi-stage reverse Logistics Network Problem (m-rLNP) while minimizing the total cost, which involves reverse logistics shipping cost and fixed cost of opening the disassembly centers and processing centers. In this study, we first formulate the m-rLNP model as a three-stage logistics network model. Following for solving this problem, we propose a Genetic Algorithm pri (GA) with priority-based encoding method consisting of two stages, and introduce a new crossover operator called Weight Mapping Crossover (WMX). Additionally also a heuristic approach is applied in the 3rd stage to ship of materials from processing center to manufacturer. Finally numerical experiments with various scales of the m-rLNP models demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach by comparing with the recent researches.

  13. Comparing Linear Discriminant Function with Logistic Regression for the Two-Group Classification Problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Xitao; Wang, Lin

    The Monte Carlo study compared the performance of predictive discriminant analysis (PDA) and that of logistic regression (LR) for the two-group classification problem. Prior probabilities were used for classification, but the cost of misclassification was assumed to be equal. The study used a fully crossed three-factor experimental design (with…

  14. Optimization of Location-Routing Problem for Cold Chain Logistics Considering Carbon Footprint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Songyi; Tao, Fengming; Shi, Yuhe

    2018-01-06

    In order to solve the optimization problem of logistics distribution system for fresh food, this paper provides a low-carbon and environmental protection point of view, based on the characteristics of perishable products, and combines with the overall optimization idea of cold chain logistics distribution network, where the green and low-carbon location-routing problem (LRP) model in cold chain logistics is developed with the minimum total costs as the objective function, which includes carbon emission costs. A hybrid genetic algorithm with heuristic rules is designed to solve the model, and an example is used to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm. Furthermore, the simulation results obtained by a practical numerical example show the applicability of the model while provide green and environmentally friendly location-distribution schemes for the cold chain logistics enterprise. Finally, carbon tax policies are introduced to analyze the impact of carbon tax on the total costs and carbon emissions, which proves that carbon tax policy can effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions in cold chain logistics network.

  15. Optimization of Location–Routing Problem for Cold Chain Logistics Considering Carbon Footprint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Songyi; Tao, Fengming; Shi, Yuhe

    2018-01-01

    In order to solve the optimization problem of logistics distribution system for fresh food, this paper provides a low-carbon and environmental protection point of view, based on the characteristics of perishable products, and combines with the overall optimization idea of cold chain logistics distribution network, where the green and low-carbon location–routing problem (LRP) model in cold chain logistics is developed with the minimum total costs as the objective function, which includes carbon emission costs. A hybrid genetic algorithm with heuristic rules is designed to solve the model, and an example is used to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm. Furthermore, the simulation results obtained by a practical numerical example show the applicability of the model while provide green and environmentally friendly location-distribution schemes for the cold chain logistics enterprise. Finally, carbon tax policies are introduced to analyze the impact of carbon tax on the total costs and carbon emissions, which proves that carbon tax policy can effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions in cold chain logistics network. PMID:29316639

  16. Optimization of Location–Routing Problem for Cold Chain Logistics Considering Carbon Footprint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songyi Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to solve the optimization problem of logistics distribution system for fresh food, this paper provides a low-carbon and environmental protection point of view, based on the characteristics of perishable products, and combines with the overall optimization idea of cold chain logistics distribution network, where the green and low-carbon location–routing problem (LRP model in cold chain logistics is developed with the minimum total costs as the objective function, which includes carbon emission costs. A hybrid genetic algorithm with heuristic rules is designed to solve the model, and an example is used to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm. Furthermore, the simulation results obtained by a practical numerical example show the applicability of the model while provide green and environmentally friendly location-distribution schemes for the cold chain logistics enterprise. Finally, carbon tax policies are introduced to analyze the impact of carbon tax on the total costs and carbon emissions, which proves that carbon tax policy can effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions in cold chain logistics network.

  17. Solution Method of Multi-Product Two-Stage Logistics Problem with Constraints of Delivery Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ataka, Shinichiro; Gen, Mitsuo

    The logistics network design is one of the important phase of Supply Chain Management (SCM) and it is the problem that should be optimized for long-term promotion of efficiency of the whole supply chain. Usually a plant produces different type of products. Even if it is a factory of the same company, delivery is different by a kind of a produced product. The restrictions which this model has are deeply concerned with TP in the real world. In this paper, we consider the logistics network design problems with multi-products and constraints for delivery course. To solve the problem, we used a hybrid priority-based Genetic Algorithm (h-priGA), and we tried the comparison experiment with priority-based Genetic Algorithm (priGA)and h-priGA, we show it about the effectiveness of h-priGA.

  18. Applying Fuzzy Multiobjective Integrated Logistics Model to Green Supply Chain Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chui-Yu Chiu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is attempting to explore the optimal way of supply chain management within the domain of environmental responsibility and concerns. The background of this research involves the issue of green supply chain management (GSCM and the concept of the multiobjective integrated logistics model. More specifically, in this paper, we suggest the fuzzy multiobjective integrated logistics model with the transportation cost and demand fuzziness to solve green supply chain problems in the uncertain environment which is illustrated via the detailed numerical example. Results and the sensitivity analysis of the numerical example indicate that when the governmental subsidy value increased the profits of the reverse chain also increased. The finding shows that the governmental subsidy policy could remain of significant influence for used-product reverse logistics chain.

  19. The problem of risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerup, Per

    1989-01-01

    Communication of risk and risk decisions has always been a matter of great difficulty. A great deal of research has been devoted to improving either the understanding of people's perception of risk or people's understanding of risk itself. These achievements have, however, either failed or the results have not been properly introduced in risk communication. At least this is what can be deduced from recent very heated discussions of risk decisions concerning chemical industry in Denmark. It might thus be that the focus of our interest should be changed from improving already existing methods of risk analysis to improving our understanding of why risk communication very often fails - and fails with very severe consequences. In Denmark a working party set up by the Minister for the Environment has just concluded its work on these matters. This main problem seems to be that the authorities' very one-dimensional perception of risk simply do not reflect the concern of the public and that of many politicians. If this is true the problem is not just a matter of communication but a much more fundamental one which parameters should be introduced in risk evaluation in order to satisfy the need of the public - and how this can be done. (author)

  20. Risks Analysis of Logistics Financial Business Based on Evidential Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risks in logistics financial business are identified and classified. Making the failure of the business as the root node, a Bayesian network is constructed to measure the risk levels in the business. Three importance indexes are calculated to find the most important risks in the business. And more, considering the epistemic uncertainties in the risks, evidence theory associate with Bayesian network is used as an evidential network in the risk analysis of logistics finance. To find how much uncertainty in root node is produced by each risk, a new index, epistemic importance, is defined. Numerical examples show that the proposed methods could provide a lot of useful information. With the information, effective approaches could be found to control and avoid these sensitive risks, thus keep logistics financial business working more reliable. The proposed method also gives a quantitative measure of risk levels in logistics financial business, which provides guidance for the selection of financing solutions.

  1. Determination of osteoporosis risk factors using a multiple logistic regression model in postmenopausal Turkish women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkus, Zeki; Camdeviren, Handan; Celik, Fatma; Gur, Ali; Nas, Kemal

    2005-09-01

    To determine the risk factors of osteoporosis using a multiple binary logistic regression method and to assess the risk variables for osteoporosis, which is a major and growing health problem in many countries. We presented a case-control study, consisting of 126 postmenopausal healthy women as control group and 225 postmenopausal osteoporotic women as the case group. The study was carried out in the Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Dicle University, Diyarbakir, Turkey between 1999-2002. The data from the 351 participants were collected using a standard questionnaire that contains 43 variables. A multiple logistic regression model was then used to evaluate the data and to find the best regression model. We classified 80.1% (281/351) of the participants using the regression model. Furthermore, the specificity value of the model was 67% (84/126) of the control group while the sensitivity value was 88% (197/225) of the case group. We found the distribution of residual values standardized for final model to be exponential using the Kolmogorow-Smirnow test (p=0.193). The receiver operating characteristic curve was found successful to predict patients with risk for osteoporosis. This study suggests that low levels of dietary calcium intake, physical activity, education, and longer duration of menopause are independent predictors of the risk of low bone density in our population. Adequate dietary calcium intake in combination with maintaining a daily physical activity, increasing educational level, decreasing birth rate, and duration of breast-feeding may contribute to healthy bones and play a role in practical prevention of osteoporosis in Southeast Anatolia. In addition, the findings of the present study indicate that the use of multivariate statistical method as a multiple logistic regression in osteoporosis, which maybe influenced by many variables, is better than univariate statistical evaluation.

  2. The alarming problems of confounding equivalence using logistic regression models in the perspective of causal diagrams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanyuan Yu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Confounders can produce spurious associations between exposure and outcome in observational studies. For majority of epidemiologists, adjusting for confounders using logistic regression model is their habitual method, though it has some problems in accuracy and precision. It is, therefore, important to highlight the problems of logistic regression and search the alternative method. Methods Four causal diagram models were defined to summarize confounding equivalence. Both theoretical proofs and simulation studies were performed to verify whether conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential and then to select the optimum adjusting strategy, in which logistic regression model and inverse probability weighting based marginal structural model (IPW-based-MSM were compared. The “do-calculus” was used to calculate the true causal effect of exposure on outcome, then the bias and standard error were used to evaluate the performances of different strategies. Results Adjusting for different sets of confounding equivalence, as judged by identical Markov boundaries, produced different bias-reducing potential in the logistic regression model. For the sets satisfied G-admissibility, adjusting for the set including all the confounders reduced the equivalent bias to the one containing the parent nodes of the outcome, while the bias after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was not equivalent to them. In addition, all causal effect estimations through logistic regression were biased, although the estimation after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was nearest to the true causal effect. However, conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential under IPW-based-MSM. Compared with logistic regression, the IPW-based-MSM could obtain unbiased causal effect estimation when the adjusted confounders satisfied G-admissibility and the optimal

  3. The alarming problems of confounding equivalence using logistic regression models in the perspective of causal diagrams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yuanyuan; Li, Hongkai; Sun, Xiaoru; Su, Ping; Wang, Tingting; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Zhongshang; Liu, Yanxun; Xue, Fuzhong

    2017-12-28

    Confounders can produce spurious associations between exposure and outcome in observational studies. For majority of epidemiologists, adjusting for confounders using logistic regression model is their habitual method, though it has some problems in accuracy and precision. It is, therefore, important to highlight the problems of logistic regression and search the alternative method. Four causal diagram models were defined to summarize confounding equivalence. Both theoretical proofs and simulation studies were performed to verify whether conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential and then to select the optimum adjusting strategy, in which logistic regression model and inverse probability weighting based marginal structural model (IPW-based-MSM) were compared. The "do-calculus" was used to calculate the true causal effect of exposure on outcome, then the bias and standard error were used to evaluate the performances of different strategies. Adjusting for different sets of confounding equivalence, as judged by identical Markov boundaries, produced different bias-reducing potential in the logistic regression model. For the sets satisfied G-admissibility, adjusting for the set including all the confounders reduced the equivalent bias to the one containing the parent nodes of the outcome, while the bias after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was not equivalent to them. In addition, all causal effect estimations through logistic regression were biased, although the estimation after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was nearest to the true causal effect. However, conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential under IPW-based-MSM. Compared with logistic regression, the IPW-based-MSM could obtain unbiased causal effect estimation when the adjusted confounders satisfied G-admissibility and the optimal strategy was to adjust for the parent nodes of outcome, which

  4. Unified heuristics to solve routing problem of reverse logistics in sustainable supply chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anbuudayasankar, S. P.; Ganesh, K.; Lenny Koh, S. C.; Mohandas, K.

    2010-03-01

    A reverse logistics problem, motivated by many real-life applications, is examined where bottles/cans in which products are delivered from a processing depot to customers in one period are available for return to the depot in the following period. The picked-up bottles/cans need to be adjusted in the place of delivery load. This problem is termed as simultaneous delivery and pick-up problem with constrained capacity (SDPC). We develop three unified heuristics based on extended branch and bound heuristic, genetic algorithm and simulated annealing to solve SDPC. These heuristics are also designed to solve standard travelling salesman problem (TSP) and TSP with simultaneous delivery and pick-up (TSDP). We tested the heuristics on standard, derived and randomly generated datasets of TSP, TSDP and SDPC and obtained satisfying results with high convergence in reasonable time.

  5. Modeling Logistic Performance in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijgersberg, H.; Tromp, S.O.; Jacxsens, L.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage

  6. Peculiarities of solving the problems of modern logistics in high-rise construction and industrial production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubtsov, Anatoliy E.; Ushakova, Elena V.; Chirkova, Tamara V.

    2018-03-01

    Basing on the analysis of the enterprise (construction organization) structure and infrastructure of the entire logistics system in which this enterprise (construction organization) operates, this article proposes an approach to solve the problems of structural optimization and a set of calculation tasks, based on customer orders as well as on the required levels of insurance stocks, transit stocks and other types of stocks in the distribution network, modes of operation of the in-company transport and storage complex and a number of other factors.

  7. Comprehensive Logistics

    CERN Document Server

    Gudehus, Timm

    2012-01-01

    Modern logistics comprises operative logistics, analytical logistics and management of logistic networks. Central task of operative logistics is the efficient supply of required goods at the right place within the right time. Tasks of analytical logistics are designing optimal networks and systems, developing strategies for planning, scheduling and operation, and organizing efficient order and performance processes. Logistic management plans, implements and operates logistic networks and schedules orders, stocks and resources. This reference-book offers a unique survey of modern logistics. It contains proven strategies, rules and tools for the solution of a multitude of logistic problems. The analytically derived algorithms and formulas can be used for the computer-based planning of logistic systems and for the dynamic scheduling of orders and resources in supply networks. They enable significant improvements of performance, quality and costs. Their application is demonstrated by several examples from industr...

  8. Default Risk and Firm Value of Shipping & Logistics Firms in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun Jung Nam

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available As shipping and logistics industry is one of the core industries in Korea, the volume was ranked in the fifth highest in the world. However, shipping and logistics industry of Korea has suffered from default risk since Global Financial Crisis in 2008. This study examines the relationship between the default risk, as measured by the Altman K-Score, and firm value, as measured by the Return on Assets (ROA, of shipping and logistics firms in Korea and compares the impact of default risk on firm value between good financial health firms and poor financial health firms. As the trends of KScores over a ten-year periods, shipping and logistics firms in Korea register weak-to-moderate financial healthy rage. We find that Altman K-Score is significantly linked with firm value and also higher performing firms as measured by the ROA exhibit higher financial health as measured by KScore. Although nine years have been passed since Global Financial Crisis 2008, Korean shipping and logistics industry is still under the financial depression. This study proposes that systematic financial alert system of Korean shipping and logistics industry should be required to decrease default risk reflecting significance of Korean economy.

  9. A Location-Inventory-Routing Problem in Forward and Reverse Logistics Network Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunli Yuchi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a new problem of location-inventory-routing in forward and reverse logistic (LIRP-FRL network design, which simultaneously integrates the location decisions of distribution centers (DCs, the inventory policies of opened DCs, and the vehicle routing decision in serving customers, in which new goods are produced and damaged goods are repaired by a manufacturer and then returned to the market to satisfy customers’ demands as new ones. Our objective is to minimize the total costs of manufacturing and remanufacturing goods, building DCs, shipping goods (new or recovered between the manufacturer and opened DCs, and distributing new or recovered goods to customers and ordering and storage costs of goods. A nonlinear integer programming model is proposed to formulate the LIRP-FRL. A new tabu search (NTS algorithm is developed to achieve near optimal solution of the problem. Numerical experiments on the benchmark instances of a simplified version of the LIRP-FRL, the capacitated location routing problem, and the randomly generated LIRP-FRL instances demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed NTS algorithm in problem resolution.

  10. AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE BENEFITS AND THE RISKS OF OUTSOURCING LOGISTICS IN THE ROMANIAN INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mureºan Ioana

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Logistics outsourcing is considered to be an excellent source of competitive advantage for companies. Its benefits are long praised about in the specialty literature, but its risks are often briefly described. We believe that both the benefits and the risks of outsourcing logistics extremely important and must be regarded as a source of success or failure as it will be described in this paper. Our research objectives refer to investigating the main outsourcing risks and benefits in the contemporary Romanian industry sector, in order to be able to identify which are the most threatening risks and also the most wanted benefits in the opinion of the production companies. We regard logistics outsourcing as an exceedingly captivating and up-to-date topic, because it provides a satisfactory solution to various company issues that pertain to increased specialization, collaboration and integration in efficient and effective supply chains. The management of this activity with its main functions including the benefits and the risks will be approached in our research. The outsourcing of logistic services is a complex concept that our paper undertakes to discuss in some costs, access to new and costly technologies, scale economies, of its aspects. Our study is developed on 108 Romanian companies that have more than 50 employees. Based on our previous studies in Romanian industry, we decided that our research is best based mainly on quantitative methods. The instrument of our research is the structured questionnaire. The general goal of our research is to investigate the way in which companies manage the risks and the benefits both expected and attained in the process of outsourcing logistics. The implications of our research for the field of logistics refer to the fact that we were able to identify which are the most important and attainable outsourcing logistics benefits out of the large number stated in the international literature. Furthermore, we

  11. Risk Factors of Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: Logistic Regression Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Takashi; Noe, Douglas A.; Bailer, A. John

    2012-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: A novel logistic regression tree-based method was applied to identify fall risk factors and possible interaction effects of those risk factors. Design and Methods: A nationally representative sample of American older adults aged 65 years and older (N = 9,592) in the Health and Retirement Study 2004 and 2006 modules was used.…

  12. Appraisement and benchmarking of third-party logistic service provider by exploration of risk-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitin Kumar Sahu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present era, Reverse Logistics Support has monitored as a momentous realm, where stuffs are transferred from point of consumption to origin. The companies who provide the logistic equipments, i.e. Truck, Joseph Cyril Bomford, and Shipment, etc. to its partner’s firms called Third-Party Logistics (3PL service provider. Today, the feasible 3PL service provider evaluation-opt problem is yet an amorous dilemma. The appraisement and benchmarking of logistics service providers in extent of index; allied risk-based indices and their interrelated metrics; outlooked as a great tool for each international firm, in order that firm could obtain their core goals. The novelty of manuscript is that here, a hairy-based approach has been integrated and then implemented upon a novel developed multi hierarchical third-party logistics (3PL service providers appraisement index in purpose to umpire the 3PL provider for their strong and ill’s core indices. Moreover, the overall score (Si system has also been carried out for benchmarking the 3PL provider companies, where s1 has been found as the best 3PL service provider. The developed approach enabled the manager of firms to make the verdict towards the best inclusive evaluation process of 3PL performance appraisement and benchmarking. A numerical illustration has also been provided to validate the verdict support system.

  13. Construction of risk prediction model of type 2 diabetes mellitus based on logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to construct multi factor prediction model for the individual risk of T2DM, and to explore new ideas for early warning, prevention and personalized health services for T2DM. Methods: using logistic regression techniques to screen the risk factors for T2DM and construct the risk prediction model of T2DM. Results: Male’s risk prediction model logistic regression equation: logit(P=BMI × 0.735+ vegetables × (−0.671 + age × 0.838+ diastolic pressure × 0.296+ physical activity× (−2.287 + sleep ×(−0.009 +smoking ×0.214; Female’s risk prediction model logistic regression equation: logit(P=BMI ×1.979+ vegetables× (−0.292 + age × 1.355+ diastolic pressure× 0.522+ physical activity × (−2.287 + sleep × (−0.010.The area under the ROC curve of male was 0.83, the sensitivity was 0.72, the specificity was 0.86, the area under the ROC curve of female was 0.84, the sensitivity was 0.75, the specificity was 0.90. Conclusion: This study model data is from a compared study of nested case, the risk prediction model has been established by using the more mature logistic regression techniques, and the model is higher predictive sensitivity, specificity and stability.

  14. Scenario analysis and disaster preparedness for port and maritime logistics risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwesi-Buor, John; Menachof, David A; Talas, Risto

    2016-08-01

    System Dynamics (SD) modelling is used to investigate the impacts of policy interventions on industry actors' preparedness to mitigate risks and to recover from disruptions along the maritime logistics and supply chain network. The model suggests a bi-directional relation between regulation and industry actors' behaviour towards Disaster Preparedness (DP) in maritime logistics networks. The model also showed that the level of DP is highly contingent on forecast accuracy, technology change, attitude to risk prevention, port activities, and port environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Systemic Thinking and Requisite Holism in Mastering Logistics Risks: the Model for Identifying Risks in Organisations and Supply Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Borut Jereb; Teodora Ivanuša; Bojan Rosi

    2013-01-01

    Risks in logistic processes represent one of the major issues in supply chain management nowadays. Every organization strives for success, and uninterrupted operations are the key factors in achieving this goal, which cannot be achieved without efficient risk management. In the scope of supply chain risk research, we identified some key issues in the field, the major issue being the lack of standardization and models, which can make risk management in an organization easier and more efficient...

  16. The study of logistic regression of risk factor on the death cause of uranium miners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen Jinai; Yuan Liyun; Jiang Ruyi

    1999-01-01

    Logistic regression model has widely been used in the field of medicine. The computer software on this model is popular, but it is worth to discuss how to use this model correctly. Using SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Science) software, unconditional logistic regression method was adopted to carry out multi-factor analyses on the cause of total death, cancer death and lung cancer death of uranium miners. The data is from radioepidemiological database of one uranium mine. The result show that attained age is a risk factor in the logistic regression analyses of total death, cancer death and lung cancer death. In the logistic regression analysis of cancer death, there is a negative correlation between the age of exposure and cancer death. This shows that the younger the age at exposure, the bigger the risk of cancer death. In the logistic regression analysis of lung cancer death, there is a positive correlation between the cumulated exposure and lung cancer death, this show that cumulated exposure is a most important risk factor of lung cancer death on uranium miners. It has been documented by many foreign reports that the lung cancer death rate is higher in uranium miners

  17. Analyzing the systematic risk of logistics service providers : The influence of market, industry and company effects

    OpenAIRE

    Lampe, Kerstin; Hofmann, Erik

    2013-01-01

    With this paper we want to find out which factors influence beta coefficient of logistics service providers. The systematic risk (beta coefficient, ?) of LSPs becomes more and more important for strategic decision making of LSPs, as it helps calculating the cost of capital. The cost of capital is an important factor when assessing LSPs' (future) investments, strategies and performance.

  18. Detection of high GS risk group prostate tumors by diffusion tensor imaging and logistic regression modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ertas, Gokhan

    2018-07-01

    To assess the value of joint evaluation of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) measures by using logistic regression modelling to detect high GS risk group prostate tumors. Fifty tumors imaged using DTI on a 3 T MRI device were analyzed. Regions of interests focusing on the center of tumor foci and noncancerous tissue on the maps of mean diffusivity (MD) and fractional anisotropy (FA) were used to extract the minimum, the maximum and the mean measures. Measure ratio was computed by dividing tumor measure by noncancerous tissue measure. Logistic regression models were fitted for all possible pair combinations of the measures using 5-fold cross validation. Systematic differences are present for all MD measures and also for all FA measures in distinguishing the high risk tumors [GS ≥ 7(4 + 3)] from the low risk tumors [GS ≤ 7(3 + 4)] (P Logistic regression modelling provides a favorable solution for the joint evaluations easily adoptable in clinical practice. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Problems in the communication of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiedemann, P.M.; Hennen, L.

    1989-01-01

    The authors discuss the problems in the communication of technological risks. They show that - contrary to a current popular belief - acceptance problems are not attributable to information deficits: such problems are caused rather by the fact that risks are perceived differently by the various groups in science, industry, politics and the larger public. Nevertheless, improved information about technology may help to find acceptable compromises and, thus, to prevent social conflicts to erupt over technology and to geopardize the basic political consensus. (orig.) [de

  20. Three-Cycle Problem in the Logistic Map and Sharkovskii's Theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.H.

    2011-01-01

    In the logistic map a 3-cycle does not appear until after the end of stable 2k cycles. An impetus for analytical studies of 3-cycles is provided by Sharkovskii's theorem, according to which the existence of a 3-cycle means the existence of all other cycles, hence chaos. It is a rigorous definition of chaos. We give a simple and direct proof of the existence of 3-cycles. The logistic map at fully developed chaos is shown to be isomorphic to the dynamics of a harmonic oscillator chain at the thermodynamic limit. Chaos in the logistic map is signified by a 3-cycle and in the harmonic oscillator chain by the thermodynamic limit. (author)

  1. Risk factors for pedicled flap necrosis in hand soft tissue reconstruction: a multivariate logistic regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Xu; Cui, Jianli; Jiang, Ziping; Lu, Laijin; Li, Xiucun

    2018-03-01

    Few clinical retrospective studies have reported the risk factors of pedicled flap necrosis in hand soft tissue reconstruction. The aim of this study was to identify non-technical risk factors associated with pedicled flap perioperative necrosis in hand soft tissue reconstruction via a multivariate logistic regression analysis. For patients with hand soft tissue reconstruction, we carefully reviewed hospital records and identified 163 patients who met the inclusion criteria. The characteristics of these patients, flap transfer procedures and postoperative complications were recorded. Eleven predictors were identified. The correlations between pedicled flap necrosis and risk factors were analysed using a logistic regression model. Of 163 skin flaps, 125 flaps survived completely without any complications. The pedicled flap necrosis rate in hands was 11.04%, which included partial flap necrosis (7.36%) and total flap necrosis (3.68%). Soft tissue defects in fingers were noted in 68.10% of all cases. The logistic regression analysis indicated that the soft tissue defect site (P = 0.046, odds ratio (OR) = 0.079, confidence interval (CI) (0.006, 0.959)), flap size (P = 0.020, OR = 1.024, CI (1.004, 1.045)) and postoperative wound infection (P < 0.001, OR = 17.407, CI (3.821, 79.303)) were statistically significant risk factors for pedicled flap necrosis of the hand. Soft tissue defect site, flap size and postoperative wound infection were risk factors associated with pedicled flap necrosis in hand soft tissue defect reconstruction. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

  2. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR CALCULATION OF INFORMATION RISKS FOR INFORMATION AND LOGISTICS SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Korobeynikov

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Subject of research. The paper deals with mathematical model for assessment calculation of information risks arising during transporting and distribution of material resources in the conditions of uncertainty. Meanwhile information risks imply the danger of origin of losses or damage as a result of application of information technologies by the company. Method. The solution is based on ideology of the transport task solution in stochastic statement with mobilization of mathematical modeling theory methods, the theory of graphs, probability theory, Markov chains. Creation of mathematical model is performed through the several stages. At the initial stage, capacity on different sites depending on time is calculated, on the basis of information received from information and logistic system, the weight matrix is formed and the digraph is under construction. Then there is a search of the minimum route which covers all specified vertexes by means of Dejkstra algorithm. At the second stage, systems of differential Kolmogorov equations are formed using information about the calculated route. The received decisions show probabilities of resources location in concrete vertex depending on time. At the third stage, general probability of the whole route passing depending on time is calculated on the basis of multiplication theorem of probabilities. Information risk, as time function, is defined by multiplication of the greatest possible damage by the general probability of the whole route passing. In this case information risk is measured in units of damage which corresponds to that monetary unit which the information and logistic system operates with. Main results. Operability of the presented mathematical model is shown on a concrete example of transportation of material resources where places of shipment and delivery, routes and their capacity, the greatest possible damage and admissible risk are specified. The calculations presented on a diagram showed

  3. CREATING A RISK-BASED NETWORK FOR HAZMAT LOGISTICS BY ROUTE PRIORITIZATION WITH AHP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Watchara SATTAYAPRASERT

    2008-01-01

    A mathematical model, formulated by the criteria priority of each factor and its risk level was used for the prioritization. The results show that participants rank the risk of having a road accident as the top priority, followed by the risk of carriage unit explosion and the consequences of an incident (47.8%, 27.4% and 24.8% respectively. To examine this model, data for logistics of gasoline and diesel fuel in Rayong Province (Thailand were used for the model application. From the calculation, it was possible to reduce the risk of road accidents and the consequences by approximately 6.8% and 38.5% respectively by choosing the best alternative route instead of the current one.

  4. Investigating the Effect of Complexity Factors in Stoichiometry Problems Using Logistic Regression and Eye Tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Hui; Kirk, John; Pienta, Norbert J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper includes two experiments, one investigating complexity factors in stoichiometry word problems, and the other identifying students' problem-solving protocols by using eye-tracking technology. The word problems used in this study had five different complexity factors, which were randomly assigned by a Web-based tool that we developed. The…

  5. Logistic Problem Connected with Removing Asbestos as Dangerous Waste from Terrains of Country Communes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkitny, Waldemar; Wojcik, Weronika; Generowicz, Agnieszka

    2017-12-01

    Asbestos is a common term referring to certain mineral groups having the form of fibers with a length to fibre diameter of at least 100: 1. The specific properties of asbestos - flammability, mechanical strength and thermal and flexibility - meant that asbestos has been widely used in various types of industrial technologies. It is classified as hazardous waste and therefore requires special methods for collection, export and disposal. The article proposes a model of logistics exports of asbestos from selected villages, in order to guarantee the shortest route, while maintaining the ecological safety and the rules of transportation of hazardous waste.

  6. A Year of Fractures: a snapshot analysis of the logistics, problems and outcomes of a hospital-based fracture liaison service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaile, J H; Sullivan, L; Connor, D; Bleasel, J F

    2013-10-01

    Our fracture liaison service identifies patients with low trauma fractures, determines the need for osteoporosis therapy and instigates therapy if necessary. We describe the tracking and outcome of 768 patients attending our emergency department over 1 year and discuss the problems we encountered and potential solutions. Osteoporotic fractures result in substantial morbidity, mortality and economic cost, and patients sustaining a first fracture are known to be at higher risk of sustaining future fracture. Treatment of at-risk patients has been shown to assist in prevention of future fracture including hip fracture. We established a "First Fracture Project" to identify and treat these patients in 2003. We assessed "A Year of Fractures": the logistics, outcome and problems in tracking patients presenting to our emergency department with a low trauma fracture by our fracture liaison service, over 1 year from July 2008 to June 2009. Patients were tracked by our osteoporosis nurse and offered assessment, and treatment where necessary. In 1 year, 768 patients aged 50 or over were identified from emergency department records as attending with a low trauma fracture. About 84 % of patients eventually received assessment. Of the162 patients progressing through the entire process, 74 % had osteoporosis treatment planned and/or commenced. Our fracture liaison service was effective at identifying most low trauma fracture patients at risk of further fracture and providing access to osteoporosis assessment. There were many difficulties: we outline logistic and practical issues in delivering our service and suggest potential improvements.

  7. In-Space Propulsion, Logistics Reduction, and Evaluation of Steam Reformer Kinetics: Problems and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworske, D. A.; Palaszewski, B. A.; Kulis, M. J.; Gokoglu, S. A.

    2015-01-01

    Human space missions generate waste materials. A 70-kg crewmember creates a waste stream of 1 kg per day, and a four-person crew on a deep space habitat for a 400+ day mission would create over 1600 kg of waste. Converted into methane, the carbon could be used as a fuel for propulsion or power. The NASA Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Logistics Reduction and Repurposing (LRR) project is investing in space resource utilization with an emphasis on repurposing logistics materials for useful purposes and has selected steam reforming among many different competitive processes as the preferred method for repurposing organic waste into methane. Already demonstrated at the relevant processing rate of 5.4 kg of waste per day, high temperature oxygenated steam consumes waste and produces carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen which can then be converted into methane catalytically. However, the steam reforming process has not been studied in microgravity. Data are critically needed to understand the mechanisms that allow use of steam reforming in a reduced gravity environment. This paper reviews the relevant literature, identifies gravity-dependent mechanisms within the steam gasification process, and describes an innovative experiment to acquire the crucial kinetic information in a small-scale reactor specifically designed to operate within the requirements of a reduced gravity aircraft flight. The experiment will determine if the steam reformer process is mass-transport limited, and if so, what level of forced convection will be needed to obtain performance comparable to that in 1-g.

  8. Computational Logistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pacino, Dario; Voss, Stefan; Jensen, Rune Møller

    2013-01-01

    This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Computational Logistics, ICCL 2013, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in September 2013. The 19 papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in the book. They are organized in to...... in topical sections named: maritime shipping, road transport, vehicle routing problems, aviation applications, and logistics and supply chain management.......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Computational Logistics, ICCL 2013, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in September 2013. The 19 papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in the book. They are organized...

  9. Computational Logistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Computational Logistics, ICCL 2013, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in September 2013. The 19 papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in the book. They are organized in to...... in topical sections named: maritime shipping, road transport, vehicle routing problems, aviation applications, and logistics and supply chain management.......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Computational Logistics, ICCL 2013, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in September 2013. The 19 papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in the book. They are organized...

  10. Remarks on Risk-Sensitive Control Problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menaldi, Jose-Luis; Robin, Maurice

    2005-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the discounted risk-sensitive control problem for periodic diffusion processes when the discount factor α goes to zero. If u α (θ,x) denotes the optimal cost function, θ being the risk factor, then it is shown that lim { α to 0}α u α (θ,x)=ξ(θ) where ξ(θ) is the average on ]0,θ[ of the optimal cost of the (usual) infinite horizon risk-sensitive control problem

  11. Systemic Thinking and Requisite Holism in Mastering Logistics Risks: the Model for Identifying Risks in Organisations and Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojan Rosi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Risks in logistic processes represent one of the major issues in supply chain management nowadays. Every organization strives for success, and uninterrupted operations are the key factors in achieving this goal, which cannot be achieved without efficient risk management. In the scope of supply chain risk research, we identified some key issues in the field, the major issue being the lack of standardization and models, which can make risk management in an organization easier and more efficient. Consequently, we developed a model, which captures and identifies risks in an organization and its supply chain. It is in accordance with the general risk management standard – ISO 31000, and incorporates some relevant recent findings from general and supply chain risk management, especially from the viewpoint of public segmentation. This experimental catalogue (which is also published online can serve as a checklist and a starting point of supply chain risk management in organizations. Its main idea is cooperation between experts from the area in order to compile an ever-growing list of possible risks and to provide an insight in the model and its value in practice, for which reason input and opinions of anyone who uses our model are greatly appreciated and included in the catalogue.

  12. Conceptual Aspects in the Modeling of Logistical Risk of the Networked Information Economy with the Use of Tools of Natural Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitlinskyy Valdemar V.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Information and communication tools and technologies are rapidly changing daily lives of people and business processes in economic activity primarily in the field of logistics. In particular, the innovative nature of these transformations leads to the emergence of new logistical risks, changing the essence of the existing ones, which needs to be taken into account in the management of logistics systems at various levels. Besides, the problem of Big Data has become increasingly urgent, which, on the one hand, can improve the validity of making managerial decisions, on the other hand — they (Big Data require modern tools for their production, processing and analysis. As such tools there can be used methods and models of natural computing. In the paper the basics of ant and bee algorithms, the particle swarm method, artificial immune systems are summarized; the possibilities of their application in the modeling of various types of logistical risk are demonstrated, the formalization of the problem of risk modeling with the use of an artificial immune system being given as a conditional example.

  13. A logistics sector’s perspective of factors and risks within the business environment that influence supply chains’ effectiveness: An explorative mixed method study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna A. Badenhorst-Weiss

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Supply chains in South Africa operate in a challenging business environment. This environment influences the efficiency and effectiveness of South African businesses and supply chains. These factors further influence the competitiveness of products produced in the country, the economic growth and development of South Africa. Objectives: The purpose of this study was two-fold: Firstly, to obtain insight into the main business environment risks and other factors, from a logistics perspective; and secondly, to demonstrate the use of methodology not often used in logistics research − the sequential mixed method. Method: The explorative study was conducted amongst logistics service providers and cargo owners in 2013 by means of a sequential mixed method study, consisting of a survey to determine the importance of risk factors in the business environment, followed by a qualitative study in the form of a focus group discussion to obtain richer data and insight into these risks and factors. The results of these two methods were integrated with industry literature. Results: It was found that increasing transportation costs, operational management of infrastructure and human resources-related problems pose the biggest challenges in the logistics industry. In addition, it was found that the mixed method research study has application possibilities in logistics research. Conclusion: The factors identified as particularly problematic for the logistics industry, namely ineffective operational management of infrastructure, the general conditions in the labour market and increasing costs (to some extent are outside the control of individual organisations. However, organisations can control how they react and mitigate these risk factors. It is shown that these factors and risks can change overnight. The use of the explorative mixed method in obtaining qualitative and quantitative inputs and integrating it with existing literature proved to be a

  14. Management of Logistics Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Bjørnar Aas; Stein W. Wallace

    2010-01-01

    Logistics problems are gradually becoming more complex and a better understanding of logistics management as a subject is a key to deal with the new challenges. A core element of logistics management is logistics planning, which substitutes for low customer service levels, high waste, and the use of buffers and slacks in the execution of logistic activities. Furthermore, the availability of information and problem-solving capabilities are established as the core parts of logistics planning. B...

  15. SOLVING TRANSPORT LOGISTICS PROBLEMS IN A VIRTUAL ENTERPRISE THROUGH ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE METHODS

    OpenAIRE

    PAVLENKO, Vitaliy; PAVLENKO, Tetiana; MOROZOVA, Olga; KUZNETSOVA, Anna; VOROPAI, Olena

    2017-01-01

    The paper offers a solution to the problem of material flow allocation within a virtual enterprise by using artificial intelligence methods. The research is based on the use of fuzzy relations when planning for optimal transportation modes to deliver components for manufactured products. The Fuzzy Logic Toolbox is used to determine the optimal route for transportation of components for manufactured products. The methods offered have been exemplified in the present research. The authors have b...

  16. SOLVING TRANSPORT LOGISTICS PROBLEMS IN A VIRTUAL ENTERPRISE THROUGH ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitaliy PAVLENKO

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper offers a solution to the problem of material flow allocation within a virtual enterprise by using artificial intelligence methods. The research is based on the use of fuzzy relations when planning for optimal transportation modes to deliver components for manufactured products. The Fuzzy Logic Toolbox is used to determine the optimal route for transportation of components for manufactured products. The methods offered have been exemplified in the present research. The authors have built a simulation model for component transportation and delivery for manufactured products using the Simulink graphical environment for building models.

  17. An Improved Distribution Policy with a Maintenance Aspect for an Urban Logistic Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ndhaief

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present an improved distribution plan supporting an urban distribution center (UDC to solve the last mile problem of urban freight. This is motivated by the need of UDCs to satisfy daily demand in time under a high service level in allocated urban areas. Moreover, these demands could not be satisfied in individual cases because the delivery rate can be less than daily demand and/or affected by random failure or maintenance actions of vehicles. The scope of our work is to focus on a UDC, which needs to satisfy demands in a finite horizon. To that end, we consider a distribution policy on two sequential plans, a distribution plan correlated to a maintenance plan using a subcontracting strategy with several potential urban distribution centers (UDCs and performing preventive maintenance to ensure deliveries for their allocated urban area. The choice of subcontractor will depend on distance, environmental and availability criteria. In doing so, we define a mathematical model for searching the best distribution and maintenance plans using a subcontracting strategy. Moreover, we consider delay for the next periods with an expensive penalty. Finally, we present a numerical example illustrating the benefits of our approach.

  18. Risk of Recurrence in Operated Parasagittal Meningiomas: A Logistic Binary Regression Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escribano Mesa, José Alberto; Alonso Morillejo, Enrique; Parrón Carreño, Tesifón; Huete Allut, Antonio; Narro Donate, José María; Méndez Román, Paddy; Contreras Jiménez, Ascensión; Pedrero García, Francisco; Masegosa González, José

    2018-02-01

    Parasagittal meningiomas arise from the arachnoid cells of the angle formed between the superior sagittal sinus (SSS) and the brain convexity. In this retrospective study, we focused on factors that predict early recurrence and recurrence times. We reviewed 125 patients with parasagittal meningiomas operated from 1985 to 2014. We studied the following variables: age, sex, location, laterality, histology, surgeons, invasion of the SSS, Simpson removal grade, follow-up time, angiography, embolization, radiotherapy, recurrence and recurrence time, reoperation, neurologic deficit, degree of dependency, and patient status at the end of follow-up. Patients ranged in age from 26 to 81 years (mean 57.86 years; median 60 years). There were 44 men (35.2%) and 81 women (64.8%). There were 57 patients with neurologic deficits (45.2%). The most common presenting symptom was motor deficit. World Health Organization grade I tumors were identified in 104 patients (84.6%), and the majority were the meningothelial type. Recurrence was detected in 34 cases. Time of recurrence was 9 to 336 months (mean: 84.4 months; median: 79.5 months). Male sex was identified as an independent risk for recurrence with relative risk 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.21-6.15), P = 0.014. Kaplan-Meier curves for recurrence had statistically significant differences depending on sex, age, histologic type, and World Health Organization histologic grade. A binary logistic regression was made with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test with P > 0.05; sex, tumor size, and histologic type were used in this model. Male sex is an independent risk factor for recurrence that, associated with other factors such tumor size and histologic type, explains 74.5% of all cases in a binary regression model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. An adaptive large neighborhood search heuristic for Two-Echelon Vehicle Routing Problems arising in city logistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemmelmayr, Vera C.; Cordeau, Jean-François; Crainic, Teodor Gabriel

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose an adaptive large neighborhood search heuristic for the Two-Echelon Vehicle Routing Problem (2E-VRP) and the Location Routing Problem (LRP). The 2E-VRP arises in two-level transportation systems such as those encountered in the context of city logistics. In such systems, freight arrives at a major terminal and is shipped through intermediate satellite facilities to the final customers. The LRP can be seen as a special case of the 2E-VRP in which vehicle routing is performed only at the second level. We have developed new neighborhood search operators by exploiting the structure of the two problem classes considered and have also adapted existing operators from the literature. The operators are used in a hierarchical scheme reflecting the multi-level nature of the problem. Computational experiments conducted on several sets of instances from the literature show that our algorithm outperforms existing solution methods for the 2E-VRP and achieves excellent results on the LRP. PMID:23483764

  20. Study on Multi-stage Logistics System Design Problem with Inventory Considering Demand Change by Hybrid Genetic Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Hisaki; Gen, Mitsuo

    The logistics model used in this study is 3-stage model employed by an automobile company, which aims to solve traffic problems at a total minimum cost. Recently, research on the metaheuristics method has advanced as an approximate means for solving optimization problems like this model. These problems can be solved using various methods such as the genetic algorithm (GA), simulated annealing, and tabu search. GA is superior in robustness and adjustability toward a change in the structure of these problems. However, GA has a disadvantage in that it has a slightly inefficient search performance because it carries out a multi-point search. A hybrid GA that combines another method is attracting considerable attention since it can compensate for a fault to a partial solution that early convergence gives a bad influence on a result. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid random key-based GA(h-rkGA) that combines local search and parameter tuning of crossover rate and mutation rate; h-rkGA is an improved version of the random key-based GA (rk-GA). We attempted comparative experiments with spanning tree-based GA, priority based GA and random key-based GA. Further, we attempted comparative experiments with “h-GA by only local search” and “h-GA by only parameter tuning”. We reported the effectiveness of the proposed method on the basis of the results of these experiments.

  1. An adaptive large neighborhood search heuristic for Two-Echelon Vehicle Routing Problems arising in city logistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemmelmayr, Vera C; Cordeau, Jean-François; Crainic, Teodor Gabriel

    2012-12-01

    In this paper, we propose an adaptive large neighborhood search heuristic for the Two-Echelon Vehicle Routing Problem (2E-VRP) and the Location Routing Problem (LRP). The 2E-VRP arises in two-level transportation systems such as those encountered in the context of city logistics. In such systems, freight arrives at a major terminal and is shipped through intermediate satellite facilities to the final customers. The LRP can be seen as a special case of the 2E-VRP in which vehicle routing is performed only at the second level. We have developed new neighborhood search operators by exploiting the structure of the two problem classes considered and have also adapted existing operators from the literature. The operators are used in a hierarchical scheme reflecting the multi-level nature of the problem. Computational experiments conducted on several sets of instances from the literature show that our algorithm outperforms existing solution methods for the 2E-VRP and achieves excellent results on the LRP.

  2. Department of Defense Energy and Logistics: Implications of Historic and Future Cost, Risk, and Capability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tisa, Paul C.

    Every year the DoD spends billions satisfying its large petroleum demand. This spending is highly sensitive to uncontrollable and poorly understood market forces. Additionally, while some stakeholders may not prioritize its monetary cost and risk, energy is fundamentally coupled to other critical factors. Energy, operational capability, and logistics are heavily intertwined and dependent on uncertain security environment and technology futures. These components and their relationships are less understood. Without better characterization, future capabilities may be significantly limited by present-day acquisition decisions. One attempt to demonstrate these costs and risks to decision makers has been through a metric known as the Fully Burdened Cost of Energy (FBCE). FBCE is defined as the commodity price for fuel plus many of these hidden costs. The metric encouraged a valuable conversation and is still required by law. However, most FBCE development stopped before the lessons from that conversation were incorporated. Current implementation is easy to employ but creates little value. Properly characterizing the costs and risks of energy and putting them in a useful tradespace requires a new framework. This research aims to highlight energy's complex role in many aspects of military operations, the critical need to incorporate it in decisions, and a novel framework to do so. It is broken into five parts. The first describes the motivation behind FBCE, the limits of current implementation, and outlines a new framework that aids decisions. Respectively, the second, third, and fourth present a historic analysis of the connections between military capabilities and energy, analyze the recent evolution of this conversation within the DoD, and pull the historic analysis into a revised framework. The final part quantifies the potential impacts of deeply uncertain futures and technological development and introduces an expanded framework that brings capability, energy, and

  3. Identifying environmental risk to male reproductive function by occupational sperm studies: logistics and design options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonde, J P; Giwercman, A; Ernst, E

    1996-01-01

    Malfunction of the male reproductive system might be a sensitive marker of environmental hazards, the effects of which may extend beyond reproductive function. The testis is more vulnerable to heat and ionising radiation than any other organ of the body and several xenobiotics are known to disrupt spermatogenesis after low level exposure. Studies of environmental impact on human health are often most informative and accurate when carried out in the workplace where exposures can be high and easy to document. Semen analysis provides readily obtainable information on testicular function. The main advantages in comparison with functional measures such as fertility rates and time taken to conceive are the possibilities to examine men independently of marriage and pregnancy, to find changes of fecundity with different exposures within the same person and to detect adverse effects when no alteration of fertility is yet taking place. In the implementation of an occupational sperm study considerable attention must be paid to logistic issues. A mobile laboratory unit for initial semen preparation and processing may in some situations increase worker compliance and the quality of sperm cell motility. The cross sectional design which has been used in almost all male reproductive studies so far has several severe limitations including selection bias because of differential participation, difficulties in defining a suitable reference group, and lack of information about the time dimension of the cause-effect relation. The longitudinal design deals adequately with most of these constraints. Semen samples are collected before, during, and possibly after exposure to the risk factor of interest and causal inferences are based upon change of semen variables within a man over time rather than upon differences between men. The logistics of the longitudinal study may benefit from pre-employment health examinations to enrol newly hired workers and require fewer participants to obtain

  4. A New TS Algorithm for Solving Low-Carbon Logistics Vehicle Routing Problem with Split Deliveries by Backpack—From a Green Operation Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Zhuo; Wang, Jiangtao

    2018-01-01

    In order to promote the development of low-carbon logistics and economize logistics distribution costs, the vehicle routing problem with split deliveries by backpack is studied. With the help of the model of classical capacitated vehicle routing problem, in this study, a form of discrete split deliveries was designed in which the customer demand can be split only by backpack. A double-objective mathematical model and the corresponding adaptive tabu search (TS) algorithm were constructed for solving this problem. By embedding the adaptive penalty mechanism, and adopting the random neighborhood selection strategy and reinitialization principle, the global optimization ability of the new algorithm was enhanced. Comparisons with the results in the literature show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. The proposed method can save the costs of low-carbon logistics and reduce carbon emissions, which is conducive to the sustainable development of low-carbon logistics. PMID:29747469

  5. A New TS Algorithm for Solving Low-Carbon Logistics Vehicle Routing Problem with Split Deliveries by Backpack-From a Green Operation Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Yangkun; Fu, Zhuo; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Wang, Jiangtao

    2018-05-10

    In order to promote the development of low-carbon logistics and economize logistics distribution costs, the vehicle routing problem with split deliveries by backpack is studied. With the help of the model of classical capacitated vehicle routing problem, in this study, a form of discrete split deliveries was designed in which the customer demand can be split only by backpack. A double-objective mathematical model and the corresponding adaptive tabu search (TS) algorithm were constructed for solving this problem. By embedding the adaptive penalty mechanism, and adopting the random neighborhood selection strategy and reinitialization principle, the global optimization ability of the new algorithm was enhanced. Comparisons with the results in the literature show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. The proposed method can save the costs of low-carbon logistics and reduce carbon emissions, which is conducive to the sustainable development of low-carbon logistics.

  6. Risk Assessment of Logistics Finance Based on AHP%基于AHP的物流金融风险评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    代剑环; 闫英; 付林

    2016-01-01

    根据物流金融风险影响因素的特点,从银行角度,运用层次分析法,构建物流金融风险评估体系与模型,对物流金融的风险来源进行归纳与总结,找出其中的关键因素,剖析影响因素及原因,为银行在开展物流金融业务的过程中识别、评价和规避风险提供依据,并为银行决策提供理论支持。%The paper established a risk assessment system and model of logistics finance,from the angle of the bank,utili-zing analytic hierarchy process according to the factors influnencing the risk of logistics finance,concluded the source of logistics finance risk,found out the major factors,analyzed the correlative elements and causes,providing justification for the bank to iden-tify,estimate as well as avoid risks in the process of providing logistics-financing business,and offering theoretical support for banking decision.

  7. Estimating Engineering and Manufacturing Development Cost Risk Using Logistic and Multiple Regression

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bielecki, John

    2003-01-01

    .... Previous research has demonstrated the use of a two-step logistic and multiple regression methodology to predicting cost growth produces desirable results versus traditional single-step regression...

  8. Mortality risk prediction in burn injury: Comparison of logistic regression with machine learning approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stylianou, Neophytos; Akbarov, Artur; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Buchan, Iain; Dunn, Ken W

    2015-08-01

    Predicting mortality from burn injury has traditionally employed logistic regression models. Alternative machine learning methods have been introduced in some areas of clinical prediction as the necessary software and computational facilities have become accessible. Here we compare logistic regression and machine learning predictions of mortality from burn. An established logistic mortality model was compared to machine learning methods (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forests and naïve Bayes) using a population-based (England & Wales) case-cohort registry. Predictive evaluation used: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; sensitivity; specificity; positive predictive value and Youden's index. All methods had comparable discriminatory abilities, similar sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values. Although some machine learning methods performed marginally better than logistic regression the differences were seldom statistically significant and clinically insubstantial. Random forests were marginally better for high positive predictive value and reasonable sensitivity. Neural networks yielded slightly better prediction overall. Logistic regression gives an optimal mix of performance and interpretability. The established logistic regression model of burn mortality performs well against more complex alternatives. Clinical prediction with a small set of strong, stable, independent predictors is unlikely to gain much from machine learning outside specialist research contexts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  9. Statistical problems in the assessment of nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easterling, R.G.

    1980-01-01

    Information on nuclear power plant risk assessment is presented concerning attitudinal problems; and methodological problems involving expert opinions, human error probabilities, nonindependent events, uncertainty analysis, and acceptable risk criteria

  10. Resolution of an uncertain closed-loop logistics model: an application to fuzzy linear programs with risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hsiao-Fan; Hsu, Hsin-Wei

    2010-11-01

    With the urgency of global warming, green supply chain management, logistics in particular, has drawn the attention of researchers. Although there are closed-loop green logistics models in the literature, most of them do not consider the uncertain environment in general terms. In this study, a generalized model is proposed where the uncertainty is expressed by fuzzy numbers. An interval programming model is proposed by the defined means and mean square imprecision index obtained from the integrated information of all the level cuts of fuzzy numbers. The resolution for interval programming is based on the decision maker (DM)'s preference. The resulting solution provides useful information on the expected solutions under a confidence level containing a degree of risk. The results suggest that the more optimistic the DM is, the better is the resulting solution. However, a higher risk of violation of the resource constraints is also present. By defining this probable risk, a solution procedure was developed with numerical illustrations. This provides a DM trade-off mechanism between logistic cost and the risk. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Exposure to child abuse and risk for mental health problems in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Renee; Baumrind, Nikki; Kimerling, Rachel

    2007-01-01

    Risk for adult mental health problems associated with child sexual, physical, or emotional abuse and multiple types of child abuse was examined. Logistic regression analyses were used to test study hypotheses in a population-based sample of women (N = 3,936). As expected, child sexual, physical, and emotional abuse were independently associated with increased risk for mental health problems. History of multiple types of child abuse was also associated with elevated risk for mental health problems. In particular, exposure to all three types of child abuse was linked to a 23-fold increase in risk for probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Findings underscore relations between child emotional abuse and adult mental health problems and highlight the need for mental health services for survivors of multiple types of child abuse.

  12. A robust optimization model for green regional logistics network design with uncertainty in future logistics demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezhi Zhang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes a new model to address the design problem of a sustainable regional logistics network with uncertainty in future logistics demand. In the proposed model, the future logistics demand is assumed to be a random variable with a given probability distribution. A set of chance constraints with regard to logistics service capacity and environmental impacts is incorporated to consider the sustainability of logistics network design. The proposed model is formulated as a two-stage robust optimization problem. The first-stage problem before the realization of future logistics demand aims to minimize a risk-averse objective by determining the optimal location and size of logistics parks with CO2 emission taxes consideration. The second stage after the uncertain logistics demand has been determined is a scenario-based stochastic logistics service route choices equilibrium problem. A heuristic solution algorithm, which is a combination of penalty function method, genetic algorithm, and Gauss–Seidel decomposition approach, is developed to solve the proposed model. An illustrative example is given to show the application of the proposed model and solution algorithm. The findings show that total social welfare of the logistics system depends very much on the level of uncertainty in future logistics demand, capital budget for logistics parks, and confidence levels of the chance constraints.

  13. Research on the Logistics Supply Chain in Port Logistics Transportation

    OpenAIRE

    Wang Yan-liang

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to improve and increase the logistics system effectiveness and to solve the problem of optimal movement of different flows. Logistics transport carrying the world on material resources transfer exchange important mission and economic development and our lives are closely linked, logistics chain logistics transport occupies an important position and in the e logistics chain in port logistics has play a decisive role. For many coastal countries port logistics is the eco...

  14. Mapping the inbound logistics of the refineries & terminals (plants) onshore at StatoilHydro, identify main problems and issues and suggest quick wins and possible solutions

    OpenAIRE

    Julien, Ane Sofie

    2011-01-01

    Master's thesis in Firm management The aim of this paper is to identify main problems and issues in the supply chain of the inbound logistics at StatoilHydro’s onshore plants. The identification will be based on a mapping of the chain, where value added activity is in focus. The problems and issues will be evaluated and prioritized according to suggested quick wins and possible solutions will be identified. The recommended solution will be based on the elaborated theory of muda...

  15. Warehouse Logistics

    OpenAIRE

    Panibratetc, Anastasiia

    2015-01-01

    This research is a review of warehouse logistics on the example of Kannustalo Oy, located in Kannus, Western region of Finland. Kannustalo is an international company of designing, manufacturing and assembling block and turn-key houses. The research subject is logistics process in warehouse system of industrial company. In my work I discussed about theoretical aspect of logistics, logistic functions and processes. Later I considered warehouse as a part of logistics system and provided inf...

  16. Transmission Risks of Schistosomiasis Japonica: Extraction from Back-propagation Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jun-Fang; Xu, Jing; Li, Shi-Zhu; Jia, Tia-Wu; Huang, Xi-Bao; Zhang, Hua-Ming; Chen, Mei; Yang, Guo-Jing; Gao, Shu-Jing; Wang, Qing-Yun; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2013-01-01

    Background The transmission of schistosomiasis japonica in a local setting is still poorly understood in the lake regions of the People's Republic of China (P. R. China), and its transmission patterns are closely related to human, social and economic factors. Methodology/Principal Findings We aimed to apply the integrated approach of artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression model in assessment of transmission risks of Schistosoma japonicum with epidemiological data collected from 2339 villagers from 1247 households in six villages of Jiangling County, P.R. China. By using the back-propagation (BP) of the ANN model, 16 factors out of 27 factors were screened, and the top five factors ranked by the absolute value of mean impact value (MIV) were mainly related to human behavior, i.e. integration of water contact history and infection history, family with past infection, history of water contact, infection history, and infection times. The top five factors screened by the logistic regression model were mainly related to the social economics, i.e. village level, economic conditions of family, age group, education level, and infection times. The risk of human infection with S. japonicum is higher in the population who are at age 15 or younger, or with lower education, or with the higher infection rate of the village, or with poor family, and in the population with more than one time to be infected. Conclusion/Significance Both BP artificial neural network and logistic regression model established in a small scale suggested that individual behavior and socioeconomic status are the most important risk factors in the transmission of schistosomiasis japonica. It was reviewed that the young population (≤15) in higher-risk areas was the main target to be intervened for the disease transmission control. PMID:23556015

  17. Solving a bi-objective mathematical model for location-routing problem with time windows in multi-echelon reverse logistics using metaheuristic procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghezavati, V. R.; Beigi, M.

    2016-12-01

    During the last decade, the stringent pressures from environmental and social requirements have spurred an interest in designing a reverse logistics (RL) network. The success of a logistics system may depend on the decisions of the facilities locations and vehicle routings. The location-routing problem (LRP) simultaneously locates the facilities and designs the travel routes for vehicles among established facilities and existing demand points. In this paper, the location-routing problem with time window (LRPTW) and homogeneous fleet type and designing a multi-echelon, and capacitated reverse logistics network, are considered which may arise in many real-life situations in logistics management. Our proposed RL network consists of hybrid collection/inspection centers, recovery centers and disposal centers. Here, we present a new bi-objective mathematical programming (BOMP) for LRPTW in reverse logistic. Since this type of problem is NP-hard, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) is proposed to obtain the Pareto frontier for the given problem. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm. Also, the present work is an effort to effectively implement the ɛ-constraint method in GAMS software for producing the Pareto-optimal solutions in a BOMP. The results of the proposed algorithm have been compared with the ɛ-constraint method. The computational results show that the ɛ-constraint method is able to solve small-size instances to optimality within reasonable computing times, and for medium-to-large-sized problems, the proposed NSGA-II works better than the ɛ-constraint.

  18. Ideas concerning the risk problem in technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, K.W.

    1975-01-01

    Scientific and technical development is primarily meant to improve the quality of life and to reduce mortality. The increased risk thus caused for the individual leads to a longer life expectation of man and to the ethical question of choosing the safety of a technical system. One must critically choose between justifiable effort and risk. Experience in reactor engineering (technical systems with hypothetical extreme risks) leads to considerations of the analysis to determine the risk of large chemical plants for inhabited neighbourhoods and attempts to design a conceptive and computer model for a safety analysis which can be of use in decisions regarding new planning. (HP/LH) [de

  19. Accounting for Epistemic Uncertainty in Mission Supportability Assessment: A Necessary Step in Understanding Risk and Logistics Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, Andrew; De Weck, Olivier L.; Stromgren, Chel; Goodliff, Kandyce; Cirillo, William

    2017-01-01

    Future crewed missions to Mars present a maintenance logistics challenge that is unprecedented in human spaceflight. Mission endurance – defined as the time between resupply opportunities – will be significantly longer than previous missions, and therefore logistics planning horizons are longer and the impact of uncertainty is magnified. Maintenance logistics forecasting typically assumes that component failure rates are deterministically known and uses them to represent aleatory uncertainty, or uncertainty that is inherent to the process being examined. However, failure rates cannot be directly measured; rather, they are estimated based on similarity to other components or statistical analysis of observed failures. As a result, epistemic uncertainty – that is, uncertainty in knowledge of the process – exists in failure rate estimates that must be accounted for. Analyses that neglect epistemic uncertainty tend to significantly underestimate risk. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced via operational experience; for example, the International Space Station (ISS) failure rate estimates are refined using a Bayesian update process. However, design changes may re-introduce epistemic uncertainty. Thus, there is a tradeoff between changing a design to reduce failure rates and operating a fixed design to reduce uncertainty. This paper examines the impact of epistemic uncertainty on maintenance logistics requirements for future Mars missions, using data from the ISS Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLS) as a baseline for a case study. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the impact of variations in failure rate estimates and epistemic uncertainty on spares mass. The results of these analyses and their implications for future system design and mission planning are discussed.

  20. Logistic regression and multiple classification analyses to explore risk factors of under-5 mortality in bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhowmik, K.R.; Islam, S.

    2016-01-01

    Logistic regression (LR) analysis is the most common statistical methodology to find out the determinants of childhood mortality. However, the significant predictors cannot be ranked according to their influence on the response variable. Multiple classification (MC) analysis can be applied to identify the significant predictors with a priority index which helps to rank the predictors. The main objective of the study is to find the socio-demographic determinants of childhood mortality at neonatal, post-neonatal, and post-infant period by fitting LR model as well as to rank those through MC analysis. The study is conducted using the data of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2007 where birth and death information of children were collected from their mothers. Three dichotomous response variables are constructed from children age at death to fit the LR and MC models. Socio-economic and demographic variables significantly associated with the response variables separately are considered in LR and MC analyses. Both the LR and MC models identified the same significant predictors for specific childhood mortality. For both the neonatal and child mortality, biological factors of children, regional settings, and parents socio-economic status are found as 1st, 2nd, and 3rd significant groups of predictors respectively. Mother education and household environment are detected as major significant predictors of post-neonatal mortality. This study shows that MC analysis with or without LR analysis can be applied to detect determinants with rank which help the policy makers taking initiatives on a priority basis. (author)

  1. Reverse Logistics

    OpenAIRE

    Kulikova, Olga

    2016-01-01

    This thesis was focused on the analysis of the concept of reverse logistics and actual reverse processes which are implemented in mining industry and finding solutions for the optimization of reverse logistics in this sphere. The objective of this paper was the assessment of the development of reverse logistics in mining industry on the example of potash production. The theoretical part was based on reverse logistics and mining waste related literature and provided foundations for further...

  2. METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF PRACTICAL RADIOGENIC RISK ESTIMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Т. Gubin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical ratios were established according to the description of the calculation procedure for the values of the nominal risk coefficient given in the ICRP Recommendations 2007. It is shown that the lifetime radiogenic risk is a linear functional from the distribution of the dose in time with a multiplier descending with age. As a consequence, application of the nominal risk coefficient in the risk calculations is justified in the case when prolonged exposure is practically evenly distributed in time, and gives a significant deviation at a single exposure. When using the additive model of radiogenic risk proposed in the UNSCEAR Report 2006 for solid cancers, this factor is almost linearly decreasing with the age, which is convenient for its practical application.

  3. Modelling the risk of Pb and PAH intervention value exceedance in allotment soils by robust logistic regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papritz, A.; Reichard, P.U.

    2009-01-01

    Soils of allotments are often contaminated by heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants. In particular, lead (Pb) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) frequently exceed legal intervention values (IVs). Allotments are popular in European countries; cities may own and let several thousand allotment plots. Assessing soil contamination for all the plots would be very costly. Soil contamination in allotments is often linked to gardening practice and historic land use. Hence, we predict the risk of IV exceedance from attributes that characterize the history and management of allotment areas (age, nearby presence of pollutant sources, prior land use). Robust logistic regression analyses of data of Swiss allotments demonstrate that the risk of IV exceedance can be predicted quite precisely without costly soil analyses. Thus, the new method allows screening many allotments at small costs, and it helps to deploy the resources available for soil contamination surveying more efficiently. - The contamination of allotment soils, expressed as frequency of intervention value exceedance, depends on the age and further attributes of the allotments and can be predicted by logistic regression.

  4. Logistic regression analysis of the risk factors of anastomotic fistula after radical resection of esophageal‐cardiac cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jinxi; Wang, Chenghu; Yuan, Weiwei; Zhang, Zhandong; Chen, Beibei; Zhang, Xiefu

    2017-01-01

    Background This study was conducted to investigate the risk factors of anastomotic fistula after the radical resection of esophageal‐cardiac cancer. Methods Five hundred and forty‐four esophageal‐cardiac cancer patients who underwent surgery and had complete clinical data were included in the study. Fifty patients diagnosed with postoperative anastomotic fistula were considered the case group and the remaining 494 subjects who did not develop postoperative anastomotic fistula were considered the control. The potential risk factors for anastomotic fistula, such as age, gender, diabetes history, smoking history, were collected and compared between the groups. Statistically significant variables were substituted into logistic regression to further evaluate the independent risk factors for postoperative anastomotic fistulas in esophageal‐cardiac cancer. Results The incidence of anastomotic fistulas was 9.2% (50/544). Logistic regression analysis revealed that female gender (P < 0.05), laparoscopic surgery (P < 0.05), decreased postoperative albumin (P < 0.05), and postoperative renal dysfunction (P < 0.05) were independent risk factors for anastomotic fistulas in patients who received surgery for esophageal‐cardiac cancer. Of the 50 anastomotic fistulas, 16 cases were small fistulas, which were only discovered by conventional imaging examination and not presenting clinical symptoms. All of the anastomotic fistulas occurred within seven days after surgery. Five of the patients with anastomotic fistulas underwent a second surgery and three died. Conclusion Female patients with esophageal‐cardiac cancer treated with endoscopic surgery and suffering from postoperative hypoproteinemia and renal dysfunction were susceptible to postoperative anastomotic fistula. PMID:28940985

  5. Risk factors for voice problems in teachers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooijman, P.G.C.; Jong, F.I.C.R.S. de; Thomas, G.; Huinck, W.J.; Donders, A.R.T.; Graamans, K.; Schutte, H.K.

    2006-01-01

    In order to identify factors that are associated with voice problems and voice-related absenteeism in teachers, 1,878 questionnaires were analysed. The questionnaires inquired about personal data, voice complaints, voice-related absenteeism from work and conditions that may lead to voice complaints

  6. Risk factors for voice problems in teachers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooijman, P. G. C.; de Jong, F. I. C. R. S.; Thomas, G.; Huinck, W.; Donders, R.; Graamans, K.; Schutte, H. K.

    2006-01-01

    In order to identify factors that are associated with voice problems and voice-related absenteeism in teachers, 1,878 questionnaires were analysed. The questionnaires inquired about personal data, voice complaints, voice-related absenteeism from work and conditions that may lead to voice complaints

  7. Risk factors for subclinical intramammary infection in dairy goats in two longitudinal field studies evaluated by Bayesian logistic regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koop, Gerrit; Collar, Carol A.; Toft, Nils

    2013-01-01

    Identification of risk factors for subclinical intramammary infections (IMI) in dairy goats should contribute to improved udder health. Intramammary infection may be diagnosed by bacteriological culture or by somatic cell count (SCC) of a milk sample. Both bacteriological culture and SCC are impe......Identification of risk factors for subclinical intramammary infections (IMI) in dairy goats should contribute to improved udder health. Intramammary infection may be diagnosed by bacteriological culture or by somatic cell count (SCC) of a milk sample. Both bacteriological culture and SCC...... are imperfect tests, particularly lacking sensitivity, which leads to misclassification and thus to biased estimates of odds ratios in risk factor studies. The objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors for the true (latent) IMI status of major pathogens in dairy goats. We used Bayesian logistic...... regression models that accounted for imperfect measurement of IMI by both culture and SCC. Udder half milk samples were collected from 530 Dutch and 438 California dairy goats in 10 herds on 3 occasions during lactation. Udder halves were classified as positive or negative for isolation of a major pathogen...

  8. Neighborhood Risk, Parental Socialization Styles, and Adolescent Conduct Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Gracia

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to analyze the influence of parental socialization styles (authoritarian, authoritative, indulgent and neglectful, and perceived neighborhood risk on three indicators of conduct problems in adolescence (school misconduct, delinquency, and drug use. The sample consists of 1,017 adolescents, aged between 12 and 17. Results from four multivariate factorial designs yielded only main effects of parenting styles and neighborhood risk. Adolescents from authoritative and indulgent families showed lower conduct problems than those with authoritarian and neglectful parents. Also, higher levels of perceived neighborhood risk were significantly associated with more conduct problems. There were no significant interaction effects between parenting styles and perceived neighborhood risk, but results yielded a significant interaction effect between neighborhood risk and sex. Overall, results do not support the idea that parenting styles are more effective under certain neighborhood risk conditions, and suggest that neighbourhood risk influences adolescents’ psychosocial adjustment beyond the influence of parental socialization styles.

  9. [Organisational problems in hospitals as risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    The organisational responsibility in a hospital lies with the individual who is actually (co-) responsible for the error (for example, the senior consultant, medical director, nursing manager, administrative director or manager of a hospital). According to the Federal Court of Justice (BGH), staff shortages are no excuse for the failure to adhere to the standard of care. According to a judgement of the Labour Court in Wilhelmshaven the Senior Consultant of a hospital is entitled to be provided with the necessary number of staff by the hospital owner who is obliged to provide a round-the-clock specialist care standard. Care should be taken that no employees be deployed who are overtired from working the previous night shift. Timely information of the follow-up physician about therapeutic issues resulting from the hospital treatment is demanded. Risk prevention strategies developed by an expert group as a form of risk management are reasonable and also requested by some liability insurances.

  10. Reproductive risk factors assessment for anaemia among pregnant women in India using a multinomial logistic regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perumal, Vanamail

    2014-07-01

    To assess reproductive risk factors for anaemia among pregnant women in urban and rural areas of India. The International Institute of Population Sciences, India, carried out third National Family Health Survey in 2005-2006 to estimate a key indicator from a sample of ever-married women in the reproductive age group 15-49 years. Data on various dimensions were collected using a structured questionnaire, and anaemia was measured using a portable HemoCue instrument. Anaemia prevalence among pregnant women was compared between rural and urban areas using chi-square test and odds ratio. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to determine risk factors. Anaemia prevalence was assessed among 3355 pregnant women from rural areas and 1962 pregnant women from urban areas. Moderate-to-severe anaemia in rural areas (32.4%) is significantly more common than in urban areas (27.3%) with an excess risk of 30%. Gestational age specific prevalence of anaemia significantly increases in rural areas after 6 months. Pregnancy duration is a significant risk factor in both urban and rural areas. In rural areas, increasing age at marriage and mass media exposure are significant protective factors of anaemia. However, more births in the last five years, alcohol consumption and smoking habits are significant risk factors. In rural areas, various reproductive factors and lifestyle characteristics constitute significant risk factors for moderate-to-severe anaemia. Therefore, intensive health education on reproductive practices and the impact of lifestyle characteristics are warranted to reduce anaemia prevalence. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Smart logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woensel, van T.

    2012-01-01

    This lecture focuses on Smart Logistics referring to these intelligent managerial decisions related to the design, operations and control of the transportation chain processes in an efficient and cost-effective way. The starting point for Smart Logistics is the key observation that the real-life

  12. Modeling the potential risk factors of bovine viral diarrhea prevalence in Egypt using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelfattah M. Selim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The present cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence and potential risk factors associated with Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV disease in cattle and buffaloes in Egypt, to model the potential risk factors associated with the disease using logistic regression (LR models, and to fit the best predictive model for the current data. Materials and Methods: A total of 740 blood samples were collected within November 2012-March 2013 from animals aged between 6 months and 3 years. The potential risk factors studied were species, age, sex, and herd location. All serum samples were examined with indirect ELIZA test for antibody detection. Data were analyzed with different statistical approaches such as Chi-square test, odds ratios (OR, univariable, and multivariable LR models. Results: Results revealed a non-significant association between being seropositive with BVDV and all risk factors, except for species of animal. Seroprevalence percentages were 40% and 23% for cattle and buffaloes, respectively. OR for all categories were close to one with the highest OR for cattle relative to buffaloes, which was 2.237. Likelihood ratio tests showed a significant drop of the -2LL from univariable LR to multivariable LR models. Conclusion: There was an evidence of high seroprevalence of BVDV among cattle as compared with buffaloes with the possibility of infection in different age groups of animals. In addition, multivariable LR model was proved to provide more information for association and prediction purposes relative to univariable LR models and Chi-square tests if we have more than one predictor.

  13. Logistic regression analysis of risk factors for postoperative recurrence of spinal tumors and analysis of prognostic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shanyong; Yang, Lili; Peng, Chuangang; Wu, Minfei

    2018-02-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the risk factors for postoperative recurrence of spinal tumors by logistic regression analysis and analysis of prognostic factors. In total, 77 male and 48 female patients with spinal tumor were selected in our hospital from January, 2010 to December, 2015 and divided into the benign (n=76) and malignant groups (n=49). All the patients underwent microsurgical resection of spinal tumors and were reviewed regularly 3 months after operation. The McCormick grading system was used to evaluate the postoperative spinal cord function. Data were subjected to statistical analysis. Of the 125 cases, 63 cases showed improvement after operation, 50 cases were stable, and deterioration was found in 12 cases. The improvement rate of patients with cervical spine tumor, which reached 56.3%, was the highest. Fifty-two cases of sensory disturbance, 34 cases of pain, 30 cases of inability to exercise, 26 cases of ataxia, and 12 cases of sphincter disorders were found after operation. Seventy-two cases (57.6%) underwent total resection, 18 cases (14.4%) received subtotal resection, 23 cases (18.4%) received partial resection, and 12 cases (9.6%) were only treated with biopsy/decompression. Postoperative recurrence was found in 57 cases (45.6%). The mean recurrence time of patients in the malignant group was 27.49±6.09 months, and the mean recurrence time of patients in the benign group was 40.62±4.34. The results were significantly different (Pregression analysis of total resection-related factors showed that total resection should be the preferred treatment for patients with benign tumors, thoracic and lumbosacral tumors, and lower McCormick grade, as well as patients without syringomyelia and intramedullary tumors. Logistic regression analysis of recurrence-related factors revealed that the recurrence rate was relatively higher in patients with malignant, cervical, thoracic and lumbosacral, intramedullary tumors, and higher Mc

  14. Familial risk and sibling mentalization: Links with preschoolers' internalizing problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Michelle; Binnoon-Erez, Noam; Prime, Heather; Perlman, Michal; Jenkins, Jennifer M

    2017-09-01

    The current study explored whether older sibling mentalization moderated the relationship between familial risk for internalizing symptoms and the development of future internalizing problems in the younger siblings, referred to as target children. Data were collected on 397 older siblings at Time 1 (T1) when target children were newborn and their older siblings were on average 2.61 years old (SD = .75). Target children were on average 1.60 years old at Time 2 (T2). Internalizing problems were assessed via mother and partner reports. Familial risk was operationalized as the average of all older siblings' level of internalizing problems. Older sibling mentalization, indexed by internal state talk and reasoning, was observed and coded during a sibling pretend-play interaction at T2. Results revealed a significant interaction between familial risk of internalizing problems and older siblings' mentalizing abilities, showing that familial risk was related to target children's internalizing problems in the absence of sibling mentalization. Familial risk was not associated with target children's internalizing problems when siblings demonstrated mentalizing abilities. Findings support the need to consider sibling mentalization as a protective factor for children's internalizing problems. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Logistical Worlds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ned Rossiter

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available As the managerial art and science of coordinating the movement of people, finance and things, logistical operations are central to contemporary capital. Despite its materiality in the form of communications and transport infrastructure, logistics remains an abstract machine for many. This is largely due to the compartmental structure of global supply chains and the invisibility of code. In registering the mediating force of logistics, the essay considers parametric politics as an architecture of intervention for both game design and software development. There are implications here not only for gameplay, but also the invention of method and governance of labour. How, for instance, might game design facilitate the production of a political knowledge of logistics? This becomes a matter to address for labour power vis-à-vis collective research on infrastructure, software and global supply chains.

  16. Alcohol-Related Problems And High Risk Sexual Behaviour In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There was a significant association between alcohol-related problems and risky sexual behavior. Alcohol-related problems are fairly common in people already infected with HIV/AIDS and are associated with high-risk sexual behavior. Thus, screening and treatment should be part of an effective HIV intervention program.

  17. Study of risk factors affecting both hypertension and obesity outcome by using multivariate multilevel logistic regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sepedeh Gholizadeh

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background:Obesity and hypertension are the most important non-communicable diseases thatin many studies, the prevalence and their risk factors have been performedin each geographic region univariately.Study of factors affecting both obesity and hypertension may have an important role which to be adrressed in this study. Materials &Methods:This cross-sectional study was conducted on 1000 men aged 20-70 living in Bushehr province. Blood pressure was measured three times and the average of them was considered as one of the response variables. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140 (and-or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 and obesity was defined as body mass index ≥25. Data was analyzed by using multilevel, multivariate logistic regression model by MlwiNsoftware. Results:Intra class correlations in cluster level obtained 33% for high blood pressure and 37% for obesity, so two level model was fitted to data. The prevalence of obesity and hypertension obtained 43.6% (0.95%CI; 40.6-46.5, 29.4% (0.95%CI; 26.6-32.1 respectively. Age, gender, smoking, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, fruit and vegetable consumption and physical activity were the factors affecting blood pressure (p≤0.05. Age, gender, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity and place of residence are effective on obesity (p≤0.05. Conclusion: The multilevel models with considering levels distribution provide more precise estimates. As regards obesity and hypertension are the major risk factors for cardiovascular disease, by knowing the high-risk groups we can d careful planning to prevention of non-communicable diseases and promotion of society health.

  18. Fertility problems and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Signe; Kjær, Susanne K; Jørgensen, M. E.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To determine whether women with a history of fertility problems have a higher risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) than women without a history of fertility problems after adjustment for maternal factors. Design Nationwide population-based cohort study. Setting Not applicable...... of diabetes, level of education, and smoking during pregnancy. Result(s) In total, 7,433 (2%) pregnant women received a diagnosis of GDM. Multivariate analysis showed that pregnant women with a history of fertility problems had a statistically significantly higher risk of GDM than pregnant women without...

  19. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  20. Risk Factors for Gambling Problems on Online Electronic Gaming Machines, Race Betting and Sports Betting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hing, Nerilee; Russell, Alex M; Browne, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    Growth of Internet gambling has fuelled concerns about its contribution to gambling problems. However, most online gamblers also gamble on land-based forms, which may be the source of problems for some. Studies therefore need to identify the problematic mode of gambling (online or offline) to identify those with an online gambling problem. Identifying most problematic form of online gambling (e.g., EGMs, race betting, sports betting) would also enable a more accurate examination of gambling problems attributable to a specific online gambling form. This study pursued this approach, aiming to: (1) determine demographic, behavioral and psychological risk factors for gambling problems on online EGMs, online sports betting and online race betting; (2) compare the characteristics of problematic online gamblers on each of these online forms. An online survey of 4,594 Australian gamblers measured gambling behavior, most problematic mode and form of gambling, gambling attitudes, psychological distress, substance use, help-seeking, demographics and problem gambling status. Problem/moderate risk gamblers nominating an online mode of gambling as their most problematic, and identifying EGMs ( n = 98), race betting ( n = 291) or sports betting ( n = 181) as their most problematic gambling form, were compared to non-problem/low risk gamblers who had gambled online on these forms in the previous 12 months ( n = 64, 1145 and 1213 respectively), using bivariate analyses and then logistic regressions. Problem/moderate risk gamblers on each of these online forms were then compared. Risk factors for online EGM gambling were: more frequent play on online EGMs, substance use when gambling, and higher psychological distress. Risk factors for online sports betting were being male, younger, lower income, born outside of Australia, speaking a language other than English, more frequent sports betting, higher psychological distress, and more negative attitudes toward gambling. Risk factors for

  1. Risk Factors for Gambling Problems on Online Electronic Gaming Machines, Race Betting and Sports Betting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nerilee Hing

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Growth of Internet gambling has fuelled concerns about its contribution to gambling problems. However, most online gamblers also gamble on land-based forms, which may be the source of problems for some. Studies therefore need to identify the problematic mode of gambling (online or offline to identify those with an online gambling problem. Identifying most problematic form of online gambling (e.g., EGMs, race betting, sports betting would also enable a more accurate examination of gambling problems attributable to a specific online gambling form. This study pursued this approach, aiming to: (1 determine demographic, behavioral and psychological risk factors for gambling problems on online EGMs, online sports betting and online race betting; (2 compare the characteristics of problematic online gamblers on each of these online forms. An online survey of 4,594 Australian gamblers measured gambling behavior, most problematic mode and form of gambling, gambling attitudes, psychological distress, substance use, help-seeking, demographics and problem gambling status. Problem/moderate risk gamblers nominating an online mode of gambling as their most problematic, and identifying EGMs (n = 98, race betting (n = 291 or sports betting (n = 181 as their most problematic gambling form, were compared to non-problem/low risk gamblers who had gambled online on these forms in the previous 12 months (n = 64, 1145 and 1213 respectively, using bivariate analyses and then logistic regressions. Problem/moderate risk gamblers on each of these online forms were then compared. Risk factors for online EGM gambling were: more frequent play on online EGMs, substance use when gambling, and higher psychological distress. Risk factors for online sports betting were being male, younger, lower income, born outside of Australia, speaking a language other than English, more frequent sports betting, higher psychological distress, and more negative attitudes toward gambling. Risk

  2. Crisis Management- Operational Logistics & Asset Visibility Technologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braunbeck, Richard A; Mastria, Michael F

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this MBA Project was to identify and explore logistical frameworks that leverage technology to overcome problems associated with coordinated logistics operations during crisis management...

  3. Maternal fertility problems and risk for transient neonatal diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hargreave, Marie; Kjaer, Susanne Krüger; Jørgensen, Marit Eika

    2017-01-01

    AIMS: The study of imprinting disorders in the context of infertility and its treatment is important, as studies have indicated an increased risk. In this study, we evaluated the risk of transient neonatal diabetes mellitus (TNDM), defined here as diabetes mellitus presenting within the first six...... for TNDM, after adjustment for birth year, maternal age at birth and parental history of diabetes, although this was not statistically significant (HR = 1.49; 95% CI 0.73-3.03). The risk of children born in the period 1994-2010 (a period with more comprehensive information on maternal fertility problems...... and with more invasive fertility treatment procedures) was increased almost twofold (HR = 1.92; 95% CI 0.92-4.00) but was still not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that children born to women with fertility problems, particularly after 1993, may be at an elevated risk for TNDM...

  4. Nuclear Power and Societal Problems in Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jens

    1999-01-01

    Presently, nuclear power is in focus of the public safety concern and several governments are forced to reconsider its continued role in the national power policy. In this situation it is mandatory for the utilities and the industry to present credible risk management strategies. Development...... in this, some basic problems in the present models of accident causation are described with their influence on risk management strategies. Some critical research problems are identified and illustrated by examples of accidents within shipping, aviation, etc.and parallels drawn to the conditions of nuclear...

  5. Logistics costs of the enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Rosová

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The article describe a problem of specification and systematization of enterprise’s logistics costs. With in a growing division of labour, also logistics costs increase their part in enterprises total costs.Almost all decisions about products and production in general, influence logistics processes even logistics costs and performances.In present is not clear enough, which of the cost-particles are relevant fot logistics costs, because some of logistics cost-particles accounts within overhead are charged together with costs of other sorts.Substantive step in the process of the monitoring and evidence of logistics costs is definition of this, that costs of enterprise´s processes will be inclusive in logistics costs and determining points of contact with the others departments (acquisition, production, sale etc.. After the specification of meditation processes, there is a need to choose applicable parameters for the expression of logistics performances. Besides logistics costs is needed to know logistics performances equivalent herewith at a cost of, therefore from the control side have for enterprise bigger value indices expressive correlation costs and performances(e.g. share of logistics unit costs performance.At the proposal and evidence of logistics costs and performances is needed consistently entertain an individual conditions of enterprise. Because the area of processes included strongly affects the size of account logistics costs and its share part in total costs of enterprise. Logistics costs are flow line between economy and logistics of the enterprise.

  6. Neighborhood Risk, Parental Socialization Styles, and Adolescent Conduct Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Enrique Gracia; Mª Castillo Fuentes; Fernando García

    2010-01-01

    This article aims to analyze the influence of parental socialization styles (authoritarian, authoritative, indulgent and neglectful), and perceived neighborhood risk on three indicators of conduct problems in adolescence (school misconduct, delinquency, and drug use). The sample consists of 1,017 adolescents, aged between 12 and 17. Results from four multivariate factorial designs yielded only main effects of parenting styles and neighborhood risk. Adolescents from authoritative and indulgent...

  7. Early childhood risk and resilience factors for behavioural and emotional problems in middle childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabaj, Jason L; McDonald, Sheila W; Tough, Suzanne C

    2014-07-01

    Mental disorders in childhood have a considerable health and societal impact but the associated negative consequences may be ameliorated through early identification of risk and protective factors that can guide health promoting and preventive interventions. The objective of this study was to inform health policy and practice through identification of demographic, familial and environmental factors associated with emotional or behavioural problems in middle childhood, and the predictors of resilience in the presence of identified risk factors. A cohort of 706 mothers followed from early pregnancy was surveyed at six to eight years post-partum by a mail-out questionnaire, which included questions on demographics, children's health, development, activities, media and technology, family, friends, community, school life, and mother's health. Although most children do well in middle childhood, of 450 respondents (64% response rate), 29.5% and 25.6% of children were found to have internalising and externalising behaviour problem scores in the lowest quintile on the NSCLY Child Behaviour Scales. Independent predictors for problem behaviours identified through multivariable logistic regression modelling included being male, demographic risk, maternal mental health risk, poor parenting interactions, and low parenting morale. Among children at high risk for behaviour problems, protective factors included high maternal and child self-esteem, good maternal emotional health, adequate social support, good academic performance, and adequate quality parenting time. These findings demonstrate that several individual and social resilience factors can counter the influence of early adversities on the likelihood of developing problem behaviours in middle childhood, thus informing enhanced public health interventions for this understudied life course phase.

  8. Green Maritime Logistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.

    2014-01-01

    Typical problems in maritime logistics include, among others, optimal ship speed, ship routing and scheduling, fleet deployment, fleet size and mix, weather routing, intermodal network design, modal split, transshipment, queuing at ports, terminal management, berth allocation, and total supply...... chain management. The traditional analysis of these problems has been in terms of cost- benefit and other optimization criteria from the point of view of the logistics provider, carrier, shipper, or other end-user. Such traditional analysis by and large either ignores environmental issues, or considers...... them of secondary importance. Green maritime logistics tries to bring the environmental dimension into the problem, and specifically the dimension of emissions reduction, by analyzing various trade-offs and exploring ‘win-win’ solutions. This talk takes a look at the trade-offs that are at stake...

  9. Problem Gambling in Chinese American Adolescents: Characteristics and Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Eddie Yu-Wai; Woo, Kent

    2012-01-01

    This preliminary study examined the characteristics and risk factors of problem gambling among Chinese American adolescents. A total of 192 Chinese American students (aged 13-19) from 9th to 12th grades were recruited from three high schools in San Francisco, California. Students were administered the South Oaks Gambling Screen Revised for…

  10. Probabilistic risk analysis: its possible use in safeguards problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, N.C.

    1976-01-01

    This paper reviews the methodology which was used in the Reactor Safety Study and in the WASH-1400 report. Its application to the safeguards problem is discussed. It is concluded that, while there are possible applications, an overall quantitative risk assessment of the safeguards issues is at present beyond the capability of the methodology

  11. Safety from physical viewpoint: ''two-risk model in multiple risk problem''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuz'Min, I.I.; Akimov, V.A.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the problem of safety provision for people and environment within the framework of a certain socio-economic system (SES) as a problem of managing a great number of interacting risks characterizing numerous hazards (natural, manmade, social, economic once, etc.) inherent in the certain SES has been discussed. From the physical point of view, it can be considered a problem of interaction of many bodies which has no accurate mathematical solution even if the laws of interaction of this bodies are known. In physics, to solve this problem, an approach based on the reduction of the above-mentioned problem of the problem of two-body interaction which can be solved accurately in mathematics has been used. The report presents a similar approach to the problem of risk management in the SES. This approach includes the subdivision of numerous hazards inherent within the framework of the SES into two classes of hazards, so that each of the classes could be considered an integrated whole one, each of them being characterized by the appropriate risk. Consequently, problem of 'multiple-risk' management (i.e. the problem of many bodies, as represented in physics) can be reduced to the 'two-risk' management problem (that is, to the problem two-bodies). Within the framework of the two-risk model the optimization of costs to reduce the two kinds of risk, that is, the risk inherent in the SES as a whole, as well as the risk potentially provoked by lots of activities to be introduced in the SES economy has been described. The model has made it possible to formulate and prove the theorem of equilibrium in risk management. Using the theorem, a relatively simple and practically applicable procedure of optimizing the threshold costs to reduce diverse kinds of risk has been elaborated. The procedure provides to assess the minimum value of the cost that can be achieved regarding the socio-economic factors typical of the SES under discussion. The aimed

  12. Multiagent Systems in Logistics Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kumara, R

    2000-01-01

    ... the cost added to the price of the products. This is a typical logistics problem. Under some assumptions, this problem can be solved through negotiation in a forum of candidate transportation companies...

  13. The Cyber Threat to Military Just-in-Time Logistics: Risk Mitigation and the Return to Forward Basing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-26

    the US military, demand-driven or JIT logistics is a supply chain model that minimizes the presence of large stockpiles by managing the flow of...affects- global - logistics /. 56 John P. Mello, Jr., “Windows XP Hacked, Supply Chain Poisoned,” Tech News World, July 16, 2014, accessed September 4, 2016...Lee Leiphart, “Creating a Military Supply Chain Management Model,” Army Logistician 33, no. 4 (August 7, 2001): 36. 46 Merriam-Webster Dictionary, s.v

  14. Empirical Study of E-logistics System Based on Tibet Logistics Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Yu

    2013-01-01

    With the rapid growth of E-logistics in the global logistics industry, it is important to get insight into E-logistics system in Chinese logistics industry. Regarding the current situation of E-logistics of Chinese logistics industry, there are still many problems to be concerned and resolved. This paper will review the concepts and theoretical background of E-logistics System from previous researches. After acknowledging the essential issues on E-logistics System, a research model is designe...

  15. Risk Factors for Gambling Problems: An Analysis by Gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hing, Nerilee; Russell, Alex; Tolchard, Barry; Nower, Lia

    2016-06-01

    Differences in problem gambling rates between males and females suggest that associated risk factors vary by gender. Previous combined analyses of male and female gambling may have obscured these distinctions. This study aimed to develop separate risk factor models for gambling problems for males and for females, and identify gender-based similarities and differences. It analysed data from the largest prevalence study in Victoria Australia (N = 15,000). Analyses determined factors differentiating non-problem from at-risk gamblers separately for women and men, then compared genders using interaction terms. Separate multivariate analyses determined significant results when controlling for all others. Variables included demographics, gambling behaviour, gambling motivations, money management, and mental and physical health. Significant predictors of at-risk status amongst female gamblers included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on private betting, electronic gaming machines (EGMs), scratch tickets or bingo, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. For males, risk factors included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, low education, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on EGMs, table games, races, sports or lotteries, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. High risk groups requiring appropriate interventions comprise young adults, especially males; middle-aged female EGM gamblers; non-English speaking populations; frequent EGM, table games, race and sports gamblers; and gamblers motivated by escape.

  16. Simulation Integrated Design for Logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veeke, H.P.M.

    2003-01-01

    The design of an innovative logistic system is a complex problem in the solution of which many disciplines are involved. Each discipline developed its own way of conceptual modeling for a logistic system based on a mono disciplinary perception. In essence this leads to a communication problem

  17. Risk of mental health problems in adolescents skipping meals: The Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2010 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Gyungjoo; Han, Kyungdo; Kim, Hyunju

    Adolescents frequently skip meals, doing so even more than once per day. This is associated with more mental health problems. This study identified mental health problems' associations with skipping meals and the frequency thereof among adolescents. This cross-sectional population-based study used a data set of 1,413 adolescents from the 2010 to 2012 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Hierarchical multivariable logistic regression was conducted to determine the risk of mental health problems, including stress, depressive mood, and suicidal ideation in relation to skipping meals and the frequency thereof per day. Breakfast skipping significantly increased the risks of stress and depressive mood. Stress, depressive mood, and suicidal ideation were significantly prevalent as the daily frequency of skipping meals increased. Specific strategies should be developed at government or school level to decrease the frequency of skipping meals per day, associated with serious mental health problems in adolescents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. NATO Logistics Handbook

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2007-01-01

    ...), is intended as a simple guide to logistics in NATO. It does not attempt to examine current issues or provide answers to the problems that logisticians will face, but it rather aims at introducing them to some of the basic principles, policies...

  19. Logistics, Management and Efficiency

    OpenAIRE

    Mircea UDRESCU; Sandu CUTURELA

    2014-01-01

    The problem related to the efficiency of the management for organization is general being the concern off all managers. In the present essay we consider that the efficacy of the organization begins from the structural systemization of the organizational management into general management, management of logistics and management of production which demands a new managerial process, more competitive based on economic efficiency.

  20. Heading off boundary problems: clinical supervision as risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, R; Clark, J J

    1999-11-01

    The effective management of risk in clinical practice includes steps to limit harm to clients resulting from ethical violations or professional misconduct. Boundary problems constitute some of the most damaging ethical violations. The authors propose an active use of clinical supervision to anticipate and head off possible ethical violations by intervening when signs of boundary problems appear. The authors encourage a facilitative, Socratic method, rather than directive approaches, to help supervisees maximize their learning about ethical complexities. Building on the idea of a slippery slope, in which seemingly insignificant acts can lead to unethical patterns of behavior, the authors discuss ten cues to potential boundary problems, including strong feelings about a client; extended sessions with clients; gift giving between clinician and client; loans, barter, and sale of goods; clinician self-disclosures; and touching and sex. The authors outline supervisory interventions to be made when the cues are detected.

  1. Violence Victimization in Korean Adolescents: Risk Factors and Psychological Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Subin; Lee, Yeeun; Jang, Hyesue; Jo, Minkyung

    2017-05-19

    We examined the risk factors for and psychological problems associated with violence victimization in a nationwide representative sample of Korean adolescents. Data from the 2016 Korean Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey was used. Participants were asked about their experience of being a victim of violence that required medical treatment during the past 12 months, as well as their perceived health, happiness, sleep satisfaction, stress, depressed mood, and suicidality. The 12-month prevalence of violence victimization requiring medical treatment was 2.4%. The results indicated that adolescents were at an increased risk for violence victimization if they were male, older, had parents of a foreign nationality, did not reside with their family, worked part time, resided in small cities or rural areas, were high or low in socioeconomic status (SES), exhibited high or low levels of academic performance, used alcohol or tobacco, and were sexually active. In addition, while violence victimization was negatively associated with perceived health and happiness, it was positively associated with perceived stress, depressed mood, and suicidality. The results indicate that a social disadvantage, involvement in risky behavior, and psychological problems are associated with violence victimization. Effective violence prevention efforts should thus target high-risk groups, and clinical attention is needed to address the psychological costs associated with violence victimization.

  2. Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, Donovan L.; Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Go, Susie

    2014-01-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

  3. Violence Victimization in Korean Adolescents: Risk Factors and Psychological Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subin Park

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available We examined the risk factors for and psychological problems associated with violence victimization in a nationwide representative sample of Korean adolescents. Data from the 2016 Korean Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey was used. Participants were asked about their experience of being a victim of violence that required medical treatment during the past 12 months, as well as their perceived health, happiness, sleep satisfaction, stress, depressed mood, and suicidality. The 12-month prevalence of violence victimization requiring medical treatment was 2.4%. The results indicated that adolescents were at an increased risk for violence victimization if they were male, older, had parents of a foreign nationality, did not reside with their family, worked part time, resided in small cities or rural areas, were high or low in socioeconomic status (SES, exhibited high or low levels of academic performance, used alcohol or tobacco, and were sexually active. In addition, while violence victimization was negatively associated with perceived health and happiness, it was positively associated with perceived stress, depressed mood, and suicidality. The results indicate that a social disadvantage, involvement in risky behavior, and psychological problems are associated with violence victimization. Effective violence prevention efforts should thus target high-risk groups, and clinical attention is needed to address the psychological costs associated with violence victimization.

  4. Education in logistics and training of non-logistic personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko D. Andrejić

    2011-01-01

    the logistics structure in the defense system and its horizontal connections and relations with civil surroundings where economic aspects are dominant. This structure has influence on decision-making (logistics aspects of decision-making in various aspects of their lives and work. Through logistics content in non-logistics subjects, non-logistic personnel should acquire knowledge referring to the support of their decision-making processes in various aspects of their lives and work where combat aspects and factors are predominant. Approach to the adoption of logistics content In the process of adoption of logistics content, a combination of traditional and modern ways of studying should be applied, emphasizing active participation of cadets in the process of learning. Cadets should be motivated to use different sources of knowledge (people, documents, space, time… and they should apply them adequately. They should be helped to learn how to make optimal decisions and to solve typical problems in particular situations, considering logistical aspects of decision-making, to learn the art of gathering and classification of information from different areas and sources, art of selection and analysis of information, to learn how to find possibilities of problem-solving and acting according to their own choice (not insisting on conventional solutions, to connect their own experiences and their education as well as to learn and explore on their own. Institutional framework for enhancing education and training Enhancement of quality of logistics education and training should be incorporated in a long-term concept of development of education and training in the defense system and society, considering the technology of education and training process. There should not be a search for fast, cheap and high quality solutions in education since such solutions do not exist either in theory or practice. Education should not be considered as an expense but as an investment seriously

  5. Evaluating risk factors for endemic human Salmonella Enteritidis infections with different phage types in Ontario, Canada using multinomial logistic regression and a case-case study approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varga Csaba

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Identifying risk factors for Salmonella Enteritidis (SE infections in Ontario will assist public health authorities to design effective control and prevention programs to reduce the burden of SE infections. Our research objective was to identify risk factors for acquiring SE infections with various phage types (PT in Ontario, Canada. We hypothesized that certain PTs (e.g., PT8 and PT13a have specific risk factors for infection. Methods Our study included endemic SE cases with various PTs whose isolates were submitted to the Public Health Laboratory-Toronto from January 20th to August 12th, 2011. Cases were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire that included questions pertaining to demographics, travel history, clinical symptoms, contact with animals, and food exposures. A multinomial logistic regression method using the Generalized Linear Latent and Mixed Model procedure and a case-case study design were used to identify risk factors for acquiring SE infections with various PTs in Ontario, Canada. In the multinomial logistic regression model, the outcome variable had three categories representing human infections caused by SE PT8, PT13a, and all other SE PTs (i.e., non-PT8/non-PT13a as a referent category to which the other two categories were compared. Results In the multivariable model, SE PT8 was positively associated with contact with dogs (OR=2.17, 95% CI 1.01-4.68 and negatively associated with pepper consumption (OR=0.35, 95% CI 0.13-0.94, after adjusting for age categories and gender, and using exposure periods and health regions as random effects to account for clustering. Conclusions Our study findings offer interesting hypotheses about the role of phage type-specific risk factors. Multinomial logistic regression analysis and the case-case study approach are novel methodologies to evaluate associations among SE infections with different PTs and various risk factors.

  6. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead

  7. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead.

  8. Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turturro, A; Hart, R W

    1987-01-01

    A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

  9. The syndemic condition of psychosocial problems and HIV risk among male sex workers in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biello, Katie B; Colby, Donn; Closson, Elizabeth; Mimiaga, Matthew J

    2014-07-01

    In Vietnam, the co-occurrence (i.e., "syndemic") of psychosocial factors (e.g., depression and substance use) may disproportionately burden male sex workers and increase their HIV risk. A comprehensive survey was conducted among 300 male sex workers in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam in 2010. We performed logistic regression to examine the association between the syndemic variable-a count score of the number of five psychosocial conditions endorsed-and unprotected anal sex (UAS) in the past. One-third of participants reported any UAS, and 42 % reported ≥2 psychosocial health problems. In multivariable models, experiencing ≥4 psychosocial health problems was significantly associated with UAS. Every unit increase in number of psychosocial health problems was associated with a 25-30 % increase in odds of UAS. Understanding the syndemic condition and its association with HIV risk among male sex workers in Vietnam may lead to the development of more effective, comprehensive interventions.

  10. The residual risk problem from the medical point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pott, F.

    1980-01-01

    Definitions of health and desease are discussed as well as the problems of establishing limits, especially as regards determining what are acceptable concentrations of pollutants in the environment and the workplace. It is obvious that individual protection cannot be fundamentally guaranteed. A further development and harmonization of the established ethically- and economically-based value system of individual needs as well as a coordination of this system with the requirements of society is necessary in order to be able to clearly define acceptable risks and detrimental effects. (orig.) [de

  11. Perceived risk of mental health problems in primary care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constança ePaúl

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In the face of limited resources and an ageing population with increasingly care needs, healthcare systems must identify community-dwelling older adults with mental health problems at higher risk of adverse outcomes such as institutionalisation, hospitalisation and death, in order to deliver timely and efficient care. The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of mental health concerns and the associated perceived risk of adverse outcomes in a large sample of older patients in primary care. We trained general practitioners and nurses to use the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC to rank perceived risk of mental health concerns (including neurocognitive and mood disorders from 1 (mild to 3 (Severe. The mean age of the 4499 people assessed was 76.3 years (sd=7.3 and 2645 (58.8% were female. According to the primary care team 1616 (35.9% were perceived to have mental health concerns of whom 847 (52.4% were mild, 559 (34.6% were moderate and 210 (13% were severe. Patients with mental health concerns had higher odds of perceived risk of adverse outcomes (OR=2.22, 95% CI 1.83-2.69 for institutionalisation; OR=1.66, 95% CI 1.41-1.94 for hospitalisation; OR=1.69, 95% CI 1.42-2.01 for death. These results suggest a high prevalence of mental health concerns among older adults and supports the need for early identification of patients at high-risk of adverse healthcare outcomes.

  12. Perceived risk of mental health problems in primary care.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2015-01-01

    In the face of limited resources and an aging population with increasingly care needs, healthcare systems must identify community-dwelling older adults with mental health problems at higher risk of adverse outcomes such as institutionalization, hospitalization and death, in order to deliver timely and efficient care. The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of mental health concerns and the associated perceived risk of adverse outcomes in a large sample of older patients in primary care (PC). We trained general practitioners and nurses to use the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community to rank perceived risk of mental health concerns (including neurocognitive and mood disorders) from 1 (mild) to 3 (severe). The mean age of the 4499 people assessed was 76.3 years (SD = 7.3) and 2645 (58.8%) were female. According to the PC team 1616 (35.9%) were perceived to have mental health concerns of whom 847 (52.4%) were mild, 559 (34.6%) were moderate and 210 (13%) were severe. Patients with mental health concerns had higher odds of perceived risk of adverse outcomes (OR = 2.22, 95% CI 1.83-2.69 for institutionalization; OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.41-1.94 for hospitalization; OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.42-2.01 for death). These results suggest a high prevalence of mental health concerns among older adults and supports the need for early identification of patients at high-risk of adverse healthcare outcomes.

  13. Nanomaterials in consumer's goods: the problems of risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanotechnology and engineered nanomaterials are currently used in wide variety of cosmetic products, while their use in food industry, packaging materials, household chemicals etc. still includes a limited number of items and does not show a significant upward trend. However, the problem of priority nanomaterials associated risks is relevant due to their high production volumes and an constantly growing burden on the environment and population. In accordance with the frequency of use in mass-produced consumer goods, leading priority nanomaterials are silver nanoparticles (NPs) and (by a wide margin) NPs of gold, platinum, and titanium dioxide. Frequency of nanosized silica introduction into food products as a food additive, at the moment, seems to be underestimated, since the use of this nanomaterial is not declared by manufacturers of products and objective control of its content is difficult. Analysis of literature data on toxicological properties of nanomaterials shows that currently accumulated amount of information is sufficient to establish the safe doses of nanosized silver, gold and titanium dioxide. Data have been provided in a series of studies concerning the effect of oral intake of nanosized silica on the condition of laboratory animals, including on the performance of the immune system. The article examines the existing approaches to the assessment of population exposure to priority nanomaterials, characteristics of existing problems and risk management.

  14. Adverse life events as risk factors for behavioural and emotional problems in a 7-year follow-up of a population-based child cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Cathrine Skovmand; Nielsen, Louise Gramstrup; Petersen, Dorthe Janne

    2014-01-01

    on emotional and behavioural problems was obtained from parents filling in the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) when the child was 8-9 and again when 15 years old. Data on risk factors was drawn from Danish registers. Analysis used was logistic regression for crude and adjusted change. Results: Parental divorce......Background and aim: The aim of the study was to identify risk factors for significant changes in emotional and behavioural problem load in a community-based cohort of Danish children aged 9-16 years, the risk factors being seven parental and two child-related adverse life events. Methods: Data...... significantly raised the odds ratio of an increase in emotional and behavioural problems; furthermore, the risk of deterioration in problem behaviour rose significantly with increasing number of adverse life events. By dividing the children into four groups based on the pathway in problem load (increasers...

  15. POISSON, Analysis Solution of Poisson Problems in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froehner, F.H.

    1986-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: Purpose of program: Analytic treatment of two-stage Poisson problem in Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Input: estimated a-priori mean failure rate and error factor of system considered (for calculation of stage-1 prior), number of failures and operating times for similar systems (for calculation of stage-2 prior). Output: a-posteriori probability distributions on linear and logarithmic time scale (on specified time grid) and expectation values of failure rate and error factors are calculated for: - stage-1 a-priori distribution, - stage-1 a-posteriori distribution, - stage-2 a-priori distribution, - stage-2 a-posteriori distribution. 2 - Method of solution: Bayesian approach with conjugate stage-1 prior, improved with experience from similar systems to yield stage-2 prior, and likelihood function from experience with system under study (documentation see below under 10.). 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Up to 100 similar systems (including the system considered), arbitrary number of problems (failure types) with same grid

  16. Energy use and related risk management problems in CEE countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ney, R.; Michna, J.; Ekmanis, J.; Zeltins, N.; Zebergs, V.

    2008-01-01

    Nowadays, the efficiency of energy use in the Central and East-European (CEE) countries is insufficient, being much lower than in the 'Old Europe'. The problem becomes increasingly pressing due to non-stop increasing prices of energy carriers (especially of crude oil). The authors trace the development of research activities in this sphere, classifying the revealed changes in parameters of energy consumption processes in particular time intervals into deterministic, probabilistic, and fuzzy. The paper presents a thorough analysis of decision-making in the energy management at its different levels normative, strategic, and operative. Particular attention is given to the management under uncertainty conditions - i.e. to the risk management. The most wanted research directions in this area proposed by the energy and environment policy (EEP) Center specially created for CEE countries concern management under risk connected with innovations, international activities, loss of reputation, etc.. The authors consider in detail the risk management with insufficient knowledge (non-knowledge) and under chaos. Much consideration is given to the scenario management and the game theory principles as related to the sphere of energy use. (Authors)

  17. A Generalization of the Aumann-Shapley Value for Risk Capital Allocation Problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonen, T.J.; De Waegenaere, A.M.B.; Norde, H.W.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: This paper analyzes risk capital allocation problems. For risk capital allocation problems, the aim is to allocate the risk capital of a firm to its divisions. Risk capital allocation is of central importance in risk-based performance measurement. We consider a case in which the aggregate

  18. Managing in-country transportation risks in humanitarian supply chains by logistics service providers: Insights from the 2015 Nepal earthquake

    OpenAIRE

    Baharmand, Hossein; Comes, Tina; Lauras, Matthieu

    2017-01-01

    Humanitarian supply chains (HSCs) play a central role in effective and efficient disaster relief operations. Transportation has a critical share in HSCs and managing its risks helps to avoid further disruptions in relief operations. However, there is no common approach to or culture of risk management that its applicability has been studied through recent cases. This paper incorporates an empirical research design and makes a threefold contribution: first, it identifies in-country transportat...

  19. Comparative Analysis of Potential Risk Factors for at-Risk Gambling, Problem Gambling and Gambling Disorder among Current Gamblers—Results of the Austrian Representative Survey 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sven Buth

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The risk of developing a problem gambling behavior is distributed unequally among the population. For example, individuals who report stressful life events, show impairments of mental health or belong to a socio-economically deprived group are affected more frequently by gambling problems. The aim of our study is to investigate whether these risk factors are equally relevant for all gambling groups (social = 0 DSM-5 criteria, at risk = 1 DSM-5 criterion, problem = 2–3 DSM-5 criteria, disordered = 4–9 DSM-5 criteria.Methods: Of a total of 10,000 participants in the representative gambling survey in Austria in 2015, 4,082 individuals reported gambling during the last 12 months and were allocated to the four gambling groups according to DSM-5. With social gamblers as the reference group, relevant risk factors for the other three groups were identified by means of bi- and multivariate multinomial logistic regression.Results: Significant risk factors for gambling disorder are at-risk alcohol use (OR = 4.9, poor mental health (OR = 5.9, young age (≤26 years, OR = 2.1, a low level of formal education (OR = 2.4, having grown up with a single parent (OR = 2.5, parents with addiction problems (OR = 2.3 and belonging to the working class (OR = 2.9. Risk factors for problem gambling are parents with addiction problems (OR = 3.8, poor mental health (OR = 2.6 and a young age (OR = 2.2. With regard to at-risk gambling, only growing up with a single parent was relevant (OR = 2.4.Conclusion: Overall, the results of this study suggest, that the number and the influence of the included risk factors differ between gambling problem groups. Apparently, the development of severe gambling problems is to a lesser extent facilitated by specific risk factors than by their cumulative presence. Therefore, future prevention and treatment measures should place a particular focus on individuals who have experienced growing up in a difficult family situation

  20. Comparative Analysis of Potential Risk Factors for at-Risk Gambling, Problem Gambling and Gambling Disorder among Current Gamblers-Results of the Austrian Representative Survey 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buth, Sven; Wurst, Friedrich M; Thon, Natasha; Lahusen, Harald; Kalke, Jens

    2017-01-01

    Background: The risk of developing a problem gambling behavior is distributed unequally among the population. For example, individuals who report stressful life events, show impairments of mental health or belong to a socio-economically deprived group are affected more frequently by gambling problems. The aim of our study is to investigate whether these risk factors are equally relevant for all gambling groups (social = 0 DSM-5 criteria, at risk = 1 DSM-5 criterion, problem = 2-3 DSM-5 criteria, disordered = 4-9 DSM-5 criteria). Methods: Of a total of 10,000 participants in the representative gambling survey in Austria in 2015, 4,082 individuals reported gambling during the last 12 months and were allocated to the four gambling groups according to DSM-5. With social gamblers as the reference group, relevant risk factors for the other three groups were identified by means of bi- and multivariate multinomial logistic regression. Results: Significant risk factors for gambling disorder are at-risk alcohol use (OR = 4.9), poor mental health (OR = 5.9), young age (≤26 years, OR = 2.1), a low level of formal education (OR = 2.4), having grown up with a single parent (OR = 2.5), parents with addiction problems (OR = 2.3) and belonging to the working class (OR = 2.9). Risk factors for problem gambling are parents with addiction problems (OR = 3.8), poor mental health (OR = 2.6) and a young age (OR = 2.2). With regard to at-risk gambling, only growing up with a single parent was relevant (OR = 2.4). Conclusion: Overall, the results of this study suggest, that the number and the influence of the included risk factors differ between gambling problem groups. Apparently, the development of severe gambling problems is to a lesser extent facilitated by specific risk factors than by their cumulative presence. Therefore, future prevention and treatment measures should place a particular focus on individuals who have experienced growing up in a difficult family situation, have poor

  1. Social Orientation: Problem Behavior and Motivations Toward Interpersonal Problem Solving Among High Risk Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuperminc, Gabriel P.; Allen, Joseph P.

    2006-01-01

    A model of problematic adolescent behavior that expands current theories of social skill deficits in delinquent behavior to consider both social skills and orientation toward the use of adaptive skills was examined in an ethnically and socioeconomically diverse sample of 113 male and female adolescents. Adolescents were selected on the basis of moderate to serious risk for difficulties in social adaptation in order to focus on the population of youth most likely to be targeted by prevention efforts. Structural equation modeling was used to examine cross-sectional data using multiple informants (adolescents, peers, and parents) and multiple methods (performance test and self-report). Adolescent social orientation, as reflected in perceived problem solving effectiveness, identification with adult prosocial values, and self-efficacy expectations, exhibited a direct association to delinquent behavior and an indirect association to drug involvement mediated by demonstrated success in using problem solving skills. Results suggest that the utility of social skill theories of adolescent problem behaviors for informing preventive and remedial interventions can be enhanced by expanding them to consider adolescents’ orientation toward using the skills they may already possess. PMID:16929380

  2. COSTS FOR IMPLEMENTING LOGISTICS INTO THE COMPANY

    OpenAIRE

    Mariana Man; Maria Nowicka-Skowron

    2010-01-01

    The ways of approaching the logistic problems need the use of some varied techniques and means, and the elaboration of a logistic project – which would aim the entire company – mobilises multiple personnel for a period of a few months and claims the intervention of logisticians within the logistic consultancy office, whom shall also act after putting the logistic project into practice. The accomplishment of any logistic wide change within the company needs an array of activities that may be g...

  3. Adverse life events as risk factors for behavioural and emotional problems in a 7-year follow-up of a population-based child cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Cathrine Skovmand; Nielsen, Louise Gramstrup; Petersen, Dorthe Janne; Christiansen, Erik; Bilenberg, Niels

    2014-04-01

    The aim of the study was to identify risk factors for significant changes in emotional and behavioural problem load in a community-based cohort of Danish children aged 9-16 years, the risk factors being seven parental and two child-related adverse life events. Data on emotional and behavioural problems was obtained from parents filling in the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) when the child was 8-9 and again when 15 years old. Data on risk factors was drawn from Danish registers. Analysis used was logistic regression for crude and adjusted change. Parental divorce significantly raised the odds ratio of an increase in emotional and behavioural problems; furthermore, the risk of deterioration in problem behaviour rose significantly with increasing number of adverse life events. By dividing the children into four groups based on the pathway in problem load (increasers, decreasers, high persisters and low persisters), we found that children with a consistently high level of behavioural problems also had the highest number of adverse life events compared with any other group. Family break-up was found to be a significant risk factor. This supports findings in previous studies. The fact that no other risk factor proved to be of significance might be due to lack of power in the study. Children experiencing high levels of adverse life events are at high risk of chronic problem behaviour. Thus these risk factors should be assessed in daily clinical practice.

  4. Assessing the Credit Risk of Corporate Bonds Based on Factor Analysis and Logistic Regress Analysis Techniques: Evidence from New Energy Enterprises in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanxin Liu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, new energy sources have ushered in tremendous opportunities for development. The difficulties to finance new energy enterprises (NEEs can be estimated through issuing corporate bonds. However, there are few scientific and reasonable methods to assess the credit risk of NEE bonds, which is not conducive to the healthy development of NEEs. Based on this, this paper analyzes the advantages and risks of NEEs issuing bonds and the main factors affecting the credit risk of NEE bonds, constructs a hybrid model for assessing the credit risk of NEE bonds based on factor analysis and logistic regress analysis techniques, and verifies the applicability and effectiveness of the model employing relevant data from 46 Chinese NEEs. The results show that the main factors affecting the credit risk of NEE bonds are internal factors involving the company’s profitability, solvency, operational ability, growth potential, asset structure and viability, and external factors including macroeconomic environment and energy policy support. Based on the empirical results and the exact situation of China’s NEE bonds, this article finally puts forward several targeted recommendations.

  5. A FRAMEWORK FOR STRUCTURING CITY LOGISTICS INITIATIVES

    OpenAIRE

    Snežana Tadić; Slobodan Zečević

    2016-01-01

    Interest in the problems and conceptual solutions for city logistics is increasing each year. City is the place of largest concentration of economic and social activities, and logistics is very important for the sustainability and the economy of the city. Numerous research projects indicate that the state of urban logistics is quite critical. City logistics system is extremely complex, with a large number of participants with different roles, problems, interests and goals. They all want an at...

  6. An application in identifying high-risk populations in alternative tobacco product use utilizing logistic regression and CART: a heuristic comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Yang; Nollen, Nikki; Ahluwahlia, Jasjit S; Yu, Qing; Mayo, Matthew S

    2015-04-09

    Other forms of tobacco use are increasing in prevalence, yet most tobacco control efforts are aimed at cigarettes. In light of this, it is important to identify individuals who are using both cigarettes and alternative tobacco products (ATPs). Most previous studies have used regression models. We conducted a traditional logistic regression model and a classification and regression tree (CART) model to illustrate and discuss the added advantages of using CART in the setting of identifying high-risk subgroups of ATP users among cigarettes smokers. The data were collected from an online cross-sectional survey administered by Survey Sampling International between July 5, 2012 and August 15, 2012. Eligible participants self-identified as current smokers, African American, White, or Latino (of any race), were English-speaking, and were at least 25 years old. The study sample included 2,376 participants and was divided into independent training and validation samples for a hold out validation. Logistic regression and CART models were used to examine the important predictors of cigarettes + ATP users. The logistic regression model identified nine important factors: gender, age, race, nicotine dependence, buying cigarettes or borrowing, whether the price of cigarettes influences the brand purchased, whether the participants set limits on cigarettes per day, alcohol use scores, and discrimination frequencies. The C-index of the logistic regression model was 0.74, indicating good discriminatory capability. The model performed well in the validation cohort also with good discrimination (c-index = 0.73) and excellent calibration (R-square = 0.96 in the calibration regression). The parsimonious CART model identified gender, age, alcohol use score, race, and discrimination frequencies to be the most important factors. It also revealed interesting partial interactions. The c-index is 0.70 for the training sample and 0.69 for the validation sample. The misclassification

  7. A technique for determining the optimum mix of logistics service providers of a make-to-order supply chain by formulating and solving a constrained nonlinear cost optimization problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mrityunjoy Roy

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a technique has been developed to determine the optimum mix of logistic service providers of a make-to-order (MTO supply chain. A serial MTO supply chain with different stages/ processes has been considered. For each stage different logistic service providers with different mean processing lead times, but same lead time variances are available. A realistic assumption that for each stage, the logistic service provider who charges more for his service consumes less processing lead time and vice-versa has been made in our study. Thus for each stage, for each service provider, a combination of cost and mean processing lead time is available. Using these combinations, for each stage, a polynomial curve, expressing cost of that stage as a function of mean processing lead time is fit. Cumulating all such expressions of cost for the different stages along with incorporation of suitable constraints arising out of timely delivery, results in the formulation of a constrained nonlinear cost optimization problem. On solving the problem using mathematica, optimum processing lead time for each stage is obtained. Using these optimum processing lead times and by employing a simple technique the optimum logistic service provider mix of the supply chain along with the corresponding total cost of processing is determined. Finally to examine the effect of changes in different parameters on the optimum total processing cost of the supply chain, sensitivity analysis has been carried out graphically.

  8. Managing Reverse Logistics or Reversing Logistics Management?

    OpenAIRE

    Brito, Marisa

    2004-01-01

    textabstractIn the past, supply chains were busy fine-tuning the logistics from raw material to the end customer. Today an increasing flow of products is going back in the chain. Thus, companies have to manage reverse logistics as well.This thesis contributes to a better understanding of reverse logistics. The thesis brings insights on reverse logistics decision-making and it lays down theoretical principles for reverse logistics as a research field.In particular it puts together a framework ...

  9. Steganalysis using logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubenko, Ivans; Ker, Andrew D.

    2011-02-01

    We advocate Logistic Regression (LR) as an alternative to the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers commonly used in steganalysis. LR offers more information than traditional SVM methods - it estimates class probabilities as well as providing a simple classification - and can be adapted more easily and efficiently for multiclass problems. Like SVM, LR can be kernelised for nonlinear classification, and it shows comparable classification accuracy to SVM methods. This work is a case study, comparing accuracy and speed of SVM and LR classifiers in detection of LSB Matching and other related spatial-domain image steganography, through the state-of-art 686-dimensional SPAM feature set, in three image sets.

  10. Quality of investments in logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borut Jereb

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The issue problem of paper is that base on researches connected with analysis of investments in logistics based on the review of 100 pooled manuscripts from different sources (scientific journals and online magazines from 1996 to 2012 it was showed that there don't exist quality as well as leadership has no a good overview of the investment in logistics. It was claimed that the quality point of view should be demanding part of investments in logistics. Val Log was proposed as an answer to the issues of managing quality of investments in logistics at the tactical level in organizations. By Val Log it is possible to overcome the myth that logistics projects cost money while business projects bring money. Val Log also provides detailed instructions for goals and metrics for each process. By doing changes the quality should be the obvious pillar of our affords doing it.

  11. Application of a General Risk Management Model to Portfolio Optimization Problems with Elliptical Distributed Returns for Risk Neutral and Risk Averse Decision Makers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Kaynar; S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper portfolio problems with linear loss functions and multivariate elliptical distributed returns are studied. We consider two risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Value-at-Risk, and two types of decision makers, risk neutral and risk averse. For Value-at-Risk, we show

  12. Hip fracture risk assessment: artificial neural network outperforms conditional logistic regression in an age- and sex-matched case control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Wo-Jan; Hung, Li-Wei; Shieh, Jiann-Shing; Abbod, Maysam F; Lin, Jinn

    2013-07-15

    Osteoporotic hip fractures with a significant morbidity and excess mortality among the elderly have imposed huge health and economic burdens on societies worldwide. In this age- and sex-matched case control study, we examined the risk factors of hip fractures and assessed the fracture risk by conditional logistic regression (CLR) and ensemble artificial neural network (ANN). The performances of these two classifiers were compared. The study population consisted of 217 pairs (149 women and 68 men) of fractures and controls with an age older than 60 years. All the participants were interviewed with the same standardized questionnaire including questions on 66 risk factors in 12 categories. Univariate CLR analysis was initially conducted to examine the unadjusted odds ratio of all potential risk factors. The significant risk factors were then tested by multivariate analyses. For fracture risk assessment, the participants were randomly divided into modeling and testing datasets for 10-fold cross validation analyses. The predicting models built by CLR and ANN in modeling datasets were applied to testing datasets for generalization study. The performances, including discrimination and calibration, were compared with non-parametric Wilcoxon tests. In univariate CLR analyses, 16 variables achieved significant level, and six of them remained significant in multivariate analyses, including low T score, low BMI, low MMSE score, milk intake, walking difficulty, and significant fall at home. For discrimination, ANN outperformed CLR in both 16- and 6-variable analyses in modeling and testing datasets (p?hip fracture are more personal than environmental. With adequate model construction, ANN may outperform CLR in both discrimination and calibration. ANN seems to have not been developed to its full potential and efforts should be made to improve its performance.

  13. Adverse Events Following Immunization in Brazil: Age of Child and Vaccine-Associated Risk Analysis Using Logistic Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sílvia R.C. Lopes

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Vaccines are effective in controlling and eradicating infectious diseases. However, adverse events following immunization (AEFI can occur in susceptible individuals. The objective of this study was to analyze the Brazilian AEFI database and compare eight vaccines in order to profile risks of AEFIs related to the mandated pediatric schedule of immunization, considering the age and sex of the child, type of vaccine, and reported adverse events. Methods: We analyzed the Brazilian AEFI database integrating reports between 2005 and 2010 for children less than 10-years old immunized with eight mandated vaccines: diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, Haemophilus influenzae type b (TETRA; diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP; Bacillus Calmette–Guerin (BCG; oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV; measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR; oral rotavirus vaccine (ORV; hepatitis B (HB; and yellow fever (YF. We compared the children’s age regarding types of AEFI, evaluated AEFI factors associated with the chance of hospitalization of the child, and estimated the chance of notification of an AEFI as a function of the type of vaccine. In total, 47,105 AEFIs were observed for the mandated vaccines. Results: The highest AEFI rate was for the TETRA vaccine and the lowest was for the OPV vaccine, with 60.1 and 2.3 events per 100,000 inoculations, respectively. The TETRA vaccine showed the highest rate of hypotonic hyporesponsive episode, followed by convulsion and fever. The MMR and YF vaccines were associated with generalized rash. BCG was associated with enlarged lymph glands but showed the largest negative (protective association with hyporesponsive events and seizures. Compared with children aged 5–9-years old, young children (<1 year showed significantly higher odds of hospitalization. Conclusions: The Brazilian AEFI registry is useful to compare the magnitude and certain characteristics of adverse events associated with mandated pediatric vaccines.

  14. 儿童情绪障碍相关因素的LOGISTIC回归分析%Logistic Regression Analysis of Related Risk Factors of Emotional Disorders in Children

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高鸿云; 冯金英; 徐俊冕; 郑士俊

    2001-01-01

    Objective: To identify the related psychosocial risk factors of emotional disorders in children. Methods:To use case-control approach in which. Diagnosis was made by clinical interview according to ICD-10 criteria. Eighty eight cases and controls separately filled out general condition inventory. The results were put into Logistic regression model for analysis. Results: The children with timid personality, without kindergarten education, or with parents who were administrative or technical personnel, were apt to have emotional disorders. The children who were usually counseled by their mothers had less emotional disorders than those were beaten. Conclusion: The emotional disorders were the results of multiple factors. Prevention of children's emotional disorders should be focused on the children's personality and family education.

  15. INFORMATION SECURITY IN LOGISTICS COOPERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Małkus

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Cooperation of suppliers of raw materials, semi-finished products, finished products, wholesalers, retailers in the form of the supply chain, as well as outsourcing of specialized logistics service require ensuring adequate support of information. It concerns the use of appropriate computer tools. The security of information in such conditions of collaboration becomes the important problem for parties of contract. The objective of the paper is to characterize main issues relating to security of information in logistics cooperation.

  16. LOGISTICS OPTIMIZATION USING ONTOLOGIES

    OpenAIRE

    Hendi , Hayder; Ahmad , Adeel; Bouneffa , Mourad; Fonlupt , Cyril

    2014-01-01

    International audience; Logistics processes involve complex physical flows and integration of different elements. It is widely observed that the uncontrolled processes can decline the state of logistics. The optimization of logistic processes can support the desired growth and consistent continuity of logistics. In this paper, we present a software framework for logistic processes optimization. It primarily defines logistic ontologies and then optimize them. It intends to assist the design of...

  17. Cyber and Traditional Bullying Victimization as a Risk Factor for Mental Health Problems and Suicidal Ideation in Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannink, Rienke; Broeren, Suzanne; van de Looij – Jansen, Petra M.; de Waart, Frouwkje G.; Raat, Hein

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To examine whether traditional and cyber bullying victimization were associated with adolescent's mental health problems and suicidal ideation at two-year follow-up. Gender differences were explored to determine whether bullying affects boys and girls differently. Methods A two-year longitudinal study was conducted among first-year secondary school students (N = 3181). Traditional and cyber bullying victimization were assessed at baseline, whereas mental health status and suicidal ideation were assessed at baseline and follow-up by means of self-report questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess associations between these variables while controlling for baseline problems. Additionally, we tested whether gender differences in mental health and suicidal ideation were present for the two types of bullying. Results There was a significant interaction between gender and traditional bullying victimization and between gender and cyber bullying victimization on mental health problems. Among boys, traditional and cyber bullying victimization were not related to mental health problems after controlling for baseline mental health. Among girls, both traditional and cyber bullying victimization were associated with mental health problems after controlling for baseline mental health. No significant interaction between gender and traditional or cyber bullying victimization on suicidal ideation was found. Traditional bullying victimization was associated with suicidal ideation, whereas cyber bullying victimization was not associated with suicidal ideation after controlling for baseline suicidal ideation. Conclusions Traditional bullying victimization is associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation, whereas traditional, as well as cyber bullying victimization is associated with an increased risk of mental health problems among girls. These findings stress the importance of programs aimed at reducing bullying behavior, especially

  18. Cyber and traditional bullying victimization as a risk factor for mental health problems and suicidal ideation in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannink, Rienke; Broeren, Suzanne; van de Looij-Jansen, Petra M; de Waart, Frouwkje G; Raat, Hein

    2014-01-01

    To examine whether traditional and cyber bullying victimization were associated with adolescent's mental health problems and suicidal ideation at two-year follow-up. Gender differences were explored to determine whether bullying affects boys and girls differently. A two-year longitudinal study was conducted among first-year secondary school students (N = 3181). Traditional and cyber bullying victimization were assessed at baseline, whereas mental health status and suicidal ideation were assessed at baseline and follow-up by means of self-report questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess associations between these variables while controlling for baseline problems. Additionally, we tested whether gender differences in mental health and suicidal ideation were present for the two types of bullying. There was a significant interaction between gender and traditional bullying victimization and between gender and cyber bullying victimization on mental health problems. Among boys, traditional and cyber bullying victimization were not related to mental health problems after controlling for baseline mental health. Among girls, both traditional and cyber bullying victimization were associated with mental health problems after controlling for baseline mental health. No significant interaction between gender and traditional or cyber bullying victimization on suicidal ideation was found. Traditional bullying victimization was associated with suicidal ideation, whereas cyber bullying victimization was not associated with suicidal ideation after controlling for baseline suicidal ideation. Traditional bullying victimization is associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation, whereas traditional, as well as cyber bullying victimization is associated with an increased risk of mental health problems among girls. These findings stress the importance of programs aimed at reducing bullying behavior, especially because early-onset mental health problems

  19. Cyber and traditional bullying victimization as a risk factor for mental health problems and suicidal ideation in adolescents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rienke Bannink

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To examine whether traditional and cyber bullying victimization were associated with adolescent's mental health problems and suicidal ideation at two-year follow-up. Gender differences were explored to determine whether bullying affects boys and girls differently. METHODS: A two-year longitudinal study was conducted among first-year secondary school students (N = 3181. Traditional and cyber bullying victimization were assessed at baseline, whereas mental health status and suicidal ideation were assessed at baseline and follow-up by means of self-report questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess associations between these variables while controlling for baseline problems. Additionally, we tested whether gender differences in mental health and suicidal ideation were present for the two types of bullying. RESULTS: There was a significant interaction between gender and traditional bullying victimization and between gender and cyber bullying victimization on mental health problems. Among boys, traditional and cyber bullying victimization were not related to mental health problems after controlling for baseline mental health. Among girls, both traditional and cyber bullying victimization were associated with mental health problems after controlling for baseline mental health. No significant interaction between gender and traditional or cyber bullying victimization on suicidal ideation was found. Traditional bullying victimization was associated with suicidal ideation, whereas cyber bullying victimization was not associated with suicidal ideation after controlling for baseline suicidal ideation. CONCLUSIONS: Traditional bullying victimization is associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation, whereas traditional, as well as cyber bullying victimization is associated with an increased risk of mental health problems among girls. These findings stress the importance of programs aimed at reducing bullying

  20. Logistic Risk Model for the Unique Effects of Inherent Aerobic Capacity on (+)G(sub z) Tolerance Before and After Simulated Weightlessness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, David A.; Convertino, Victor A.; Goldwater, Danielle J.; Sandler, Harold

    1987-01-01

    Small sample size (n less than 1O) and inappropriate analysis of multivariate data have hindered previous attempts to describe which physiologic and demographic variables are most important in determining how long humans can tolerate acceleration. Data from previous centrifuge studies conducted at NASA/Ames Research Center, utilizing a 7-14 d bed rest protocol to simulate weightlessness, were included in the current investigation. After review, data on 25 women and 22 men were available for analysis. Study variables included gender, age, weight, height, percent body fat, resting heart rate, mean arterial pressure, Vo(sub 2)max and plasma volume. Since the dependent variable was time to greyout (failure), two contemporary biostatistical modeling procedures (proportional hazard and logistic discriminant function) were used to estimate risk, given a particular subject's profile. After adjusting for pro-bed-rest tolerance time, none of the profile variables remained in the risk equation for post-bed-rest tolerance greyout. However, prior to bed rest, risk of greyout could be predicted with 91% accuracy. All of the profile variables except weight, MAP, and those related to inherent aerobic capacity (Vo(sub 2)max, percent body fat, resting heart rate) entered the risk equation for pro-bed-rest greyout. A cross-validation using 24 new subjects indicated a very stable model for risk prediction, accurate within 5% of the original equation. The result for the inherent fitness variables is significant in that a consensus as to whether an increased aerobic capacity is beneficial or detrimental has not been satisfactorily established. We conclude that tolerance to +Gz acceleration before and after simulated weightlessness is independent of inherent aerobic fitness.

  1. Complex logistics audit system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Marková

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Complex logistics audit system is a tool for realization of logistical audit in the company. The current methods for logistics auditare based on “ad hok” analysis of logisticsl system. This paper describes system for complex logistics audit. It is a global diagnosticsof logistics processes and functions of enterprise. The goal of logistics audit is to provide comparative documentation for managementabout state of logistics in company and to show the potential of logistics changes in order to achieve more effective companyperformance.

  2. Some problems of risk balancing for regulating environmental hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, T.L.

    1984-01-01

    Rational regulation of environmental hazards may be based on the implicit underlying principles that government actions should enhance the average quality of life for those governed and maintain some degree of equity in the distribution of benefits, costs, and risks. Issues arising from these principles have practical implications for risk management policy in general and for the development and application of radiological protection criteria in particular. One of the issues is the appropriate distribution of expenditures for regulating different risks. The total resources available for risk regulation are finite; hence, minimizing the total risk subject to this constraint is an appropriate strategy for optimum risk management. Using a simple model, it is shown that this strategy leads to a distribution of expenditures between different risks such that a greater fraction is allocated to a risk with a higher cost of mitigation or control but the allocation is limited in such a manner that the fractional contribution of that risk to the total risk is also higher. The effect of deviating from this strategy is examined. It is shown that reducing a single risk of concern below the optimum value by a factor 1/F can increase the total risk by about F times the risk of concern. Taking into account the large uncertainties in risk assessment for establishing radiological protection criteria, it is argued that an optimum strategy for remedial action should (1) set basic risk limits as high as reasonable; (2) use realistic, case-specific data and analyses in deriving allowable residual contamination levels from basic risk limits; and (3) implement a policy of reducing residual contamination to levels that are as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) within the constraints imposed by optimum resource allocation. 10 references

  3. Problems of risk balancing for regulating environmental hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, T.L.

    1985-01-01

    Rational regulation of environmental hazards may be based on the implicit underlying principles that government actions should enhance the average quality of life for those governed and maintain some degree of equity in the distribution of benefits, costs, and risks. Issues arising from these principles have practical implications for risk management policy in general and for the development and application of radiological protection criteria in particular. One of the issues is the appropriate distribution of expenditures for regulating different risks. The total resources available for risk regulation are finite; hence, minimizing the total risk subject to this constraint is an appropriate strategy for optimum risk management. Using a simple model, it is shown that this strategy leads to a distribution of expenditures between different risks such that a greater fraction is allocated to a risk with a higher cost of mitigation or control but the allocation is limited in such a manner that the fractional contribution of that risk to the total risk is also higher. The effect of deviating from this strategy is examined. It is shown that reducing a single risk of concern below the optimum value by a factor 1/F can increase the total risk by about F times the risk of concern. Taking into account the large uncertainties in risk assessment for establishing radiological protection criteria, it is argued that an optimum strategy for remedial action should (1) set basic risk limits as high as reasonable; (2) use realistic, case-specific data and analyses in deriving allowable residual contamination levels from basic risk limits; and (3) implement a policy of reducing residual contamination to levels that are as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) within the constraints imposed by optimum resource allocation. 10 references, 1 figure

  4. Smoking During Adolescence as a Risk Factor for Attention Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treur, Jorien L; Willemsen, Gonneke; Bartels, Meike; Geels, Lot M; van Beek, Jenny H D A; Huppertz, Charlotte; van Beijsterveldt, Catharina E M; Boomsma, Dorret I; Vink, Jacqueline M

    2015-11-01

    Cigarette smoking and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are highly comorbid. One explanation is that individuals with ADHD use cigarettes as "self-medication" to alleviate their attention problems. However, animal studies reported that exposure to nicotine during adolescence influences the developing brain and negatively affects attention. This is the first human study exploring the effects of smoking during adolescence on attention problems. Longitudinal data on smoking and attention problems were available for 1987 adult and 648 adolescent monozygotic twin pairs from the Netherlands Twin Register. Twin pairs were classified as concordant/discordant for smoking and compared on attention problems. Within adult discordant pairs, the difference in attention problems between the smoking and never-smoking twins was first assessed cross-sectionally. In longitudinal analyses, the increase in attention problems from adolescence, when neither twin smoked, to adulthood was compared within discordant pairs. In subgroups with longitudinal data from childhood and adolescence, changes in smoking concordance and subsequent changes in attention problems were explored. Adult twins who ever smoked reported significantly more attention problems than their never-smoking co-twin. Longitudinal analyses showed a larger increase in attention problems from adolescence to adulthood in smoking twins than their never-smoking co-twin (p adolescence, smoking twins had more attention problems than their never-smoking co-twin, whereas scores were similar before smoking was initiated or after both twins started smoking (not significant in all groups). Results from this genetically informative study suggest smoking during adolescence leads to higher attention problem scores, lasting into adulthood. Copyright © 2015 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Risks in science and technology as a legal problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, H.

    1980-01-01

    The author critically examines the risk concepts and grades of risk published by other authors. In his view, scientists and engineers have primary technical competency in risk assessment. Risk evaluation as an overall process of comparing rights protected by law was reserved to the executive branch of government and to the courts of law. The residual risk to be tolerated from the legal point of view, without any provision being made for cases of damage, and the type and scope of such provisions should be limited by a comparison of rights protected by law conducted in the light of the purposes of legislation, by the principle of adequacy, and by comparative risk analyses. (HSCH) [de

  6. The intergenerational transmission of at-risk/problem gambling: The moderating role of parenting practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowling, Nicki A; Shandley, Kerrie A; Oldenhof, Erin; Affleck, Julia M; Youssef, George J; Frydenberg, Erica; Thomas, Shane A; Jackson, Alun C

    2017-10-01

    Although parenting practices are articulated as underlying mechanisms or protective factors in several theoretical models, their role in the intergenerational transmission of gambling problems has received limited research attention. This study therefore examined the degree to which parenting practices (positive parenting, parental involvement, and inconsistent discipline) moderated the intergenerational transmission of paternal and maternal problem gambling. Students aged 12-18 years (N = 612) recruited from 17 Australian secondary schools completed a survey measuring parental problem gambling, problem gambling severity, and parenting practices. Participants endorsing paternal problem gambling (23.3%) were 4.3 times more likely to be classified as at-risk/problem gamblers than their peers (5.4%). Participants endorsing maternal problem gambling (6.9%) were no more likely than their peers (4.0%) to be classified as at-risk/problem gamblers. Paternal problem gambling was a significant predictor of offspring at-risk/problem gambling after controlling for maternal problem gambling and participant demographic characteristics. The relationship between maternal problem gambling and offspring at-risk/problem gambling was buffered by parental involvement. Paternal problem gambling may be important in the development of adolescent at-risk/problem gambling behaviours and higher levels of parental involvement buffers the influence of maternal problem gambling in the development of offspring gambling problems. Further research is therefore required to identify factors that attenuate the seemingly greater risk of transmission associated with paternal gambling problems. Parental involvement is a potential candidate for prevention and intervention efforts designed to reduce the intergenerational transmission of gambling problems. (Am J Addict 2017;26:707-712). © 2017 American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  7. Logistic chain modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slats, P.A.; Bhola, B.; Evers, J.J.M.; Dijkhuizen, G.

    1995-01-01

    Logistic chain modelling is very important in improving the overall performance of the total logistic chain. Logistic models provide support for a large range of applications, such as analysing bottlenecks, improving customer service, configuring new logistic chains and adapting existing chains to

  8. Unstable values: A difficult problem for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischhoff, B.; Slovic, P.; Lichtenstein, S.

    1983-01-01

    People with somewhat rudimentary value concepts and those searching for values are compared to one another. In order to solve problems of instability the authors look into and evaluates problems like: psychophysics of concepts of values, definition of the object of the question, influencing the outlook of the persons interviewed, changes in the interviewed persons and sensitivity analysis. (DG) [de

  9. Managing Reverse Logistics or Reversing Logistics Management?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.P. de Brito (Marisa)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractIn the past, supply chains were busy fine-tuning the logistics from raw material to the end customer. Today an increasing flow of products is going back in the chain. Thus, companies have to manage reverse logistics as well.This thesis contributes to a better understanding of reverse

  10. Understanding the Relationship Between Sports-Relevant Gambling and Being At-Risk for a Gambling Problem Among American Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchica, Loredana; Zhao, Yaxi; Derevensky, Jeffrey; Ivoska, William

    2017-06-01

    Fantasy sports is a growing industry with a reported 56.8 million individuals participating in the United States and Canada alone in 2015. Whereas this activity has attracted considerable public attention, little research has examined its impact on adolescents in spite of their high rates of gambling. The current study examined the relationship between regular participation (more than once a month) in sport-relevant gambling activities among adolescents and those identified as being at-risk for a gambling problem. Questionnaire responses were collected from high school students (N = 6818; 49 % male) in Wood County, Ohio, United States. Statistical analyses revealed that regular involvement in sports betting, fantasy sports betting, and daily fantasy sports betting among adolescents was associated with a higher risk of gambling problems. Further, although males participate more frequently in these activities, females who participate have a stronger likelihood of being at-risk. Students aged 16-19 years old are at a higher risk for developing a gambling problem compared to younger adolescents when regularly engaging in sports-related gambling. Moreover, regularly participating in daily fantasy sports is the strongest predictor of at-risk gambling behavior in 13-15 year old students. A hierarchical logistic regression supports that controlling for gender and age, all forms of sport-relevant gambling activities are significant predictors of at-risk gambling. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of sports betting and fantasy sports on adolescents and establishes an initial step for future studies to further investigate these relationships.

  11. Obstetric Risk Factors and Subsequent Mental Health Problems in a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Studies suggest that obstetric complications are associated with several child psychiatric conditions. In planning for child psychiatric services it is important to monitor patterns of morbidity and associated risk factors. Identifying obstetric risk factors in a newly opened child psychiatric clinic population with ...

  12. Problems of job-profile for risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Compes, P.C.

    1984-01-01

    There is no job-profile for the risk analyst. It would be his job to detect and classify accident risks, i.e. make a diagnosis and type rationalization, and to subsequently analyse them with respect to their frequency and probability as well as to the extent of damage caused. (DG) [de

  13. Gestational age and chronic 'body-mind' health problems in childhood: dose-response association and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Frances M; Segurado, Ricardo; McAuliffe, Fionnuala M; Kelleher, Cecily C; Tremblay, Richard E

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the developmental course of all health issues associated with preterm birth is important from an individual, clinical and public health point-of-view. Both the number of preterm births and proportion of survivors have increased steadily in recent years. The UK Millennium Cohort Study (n = 18,818) was used to examine the association of gestational age with maternal ratings of general health and behavior problems at ages 5 and 11 years using binary and multinomial logistic regression analyses. The association between mothers' ratings of general health and behavior problems was relatively weak at each time point. Children rated as being in poor general health remained constant over time (4.0 % at age 5, 3.8 % at age 11), but children rated as having behavioral problems increased by almost 100 % (5.6 % at 5; 10.5 % at 11). A gradient of increasing risk with decreasing gestational age was observed for a composite health measure (general health problems and/or behavior problems) at age 5, amplified at age 11 and was strongest for those with chronic problems (poor health at both age 5 and age 11). This association was found to be compounded by child sex, maternal characteristics at birth (education, employment, marital status) and duration of breast feeding. Integrated support to at-risk families initiated during, or soon after pregnancy, may prevent chronic problems and might potentially reduce long term health costs for both the individual and health services.

  14. Case Study on Logistics Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahryar Sorooshian

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents research carried out at a medium‐size manufacturing organization in east Asia. The study tries to highlight the importance of supply chain management; specifically, our aim for this study is to understand logistics and performance measurement in the logistics and supply chain, and we include a theoretical discussion of online data collected and a case study of the logistic performance of a real organization. The study also examines the performance of the selected company, identifies the problems and provides recommendations for improvements. This study can be a guide for business advisers and those interested in analysing company performance, especially from a logistics viewpoint. We also suggest the methodology of this case study for those who want to have a better understanding of a business environment before starting their own business, or for benchmarking practice during strategic planning.

  15. Predictive factors on the efficacy and risk/intensity of tooth sensitivity of dental bleaching: A multi regression and logistic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezende, Márcia; Loguercio, Alessandro D; Kossatz, Stella; Reis, Alessandra

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study was to identify predictor factors associated with the whitening outcome and risk and intensity of bleaching-induced tooth sensitivity from pooled data of 11 clinical trials of dental bleaching performed by the same research group. The individual patient data of several published and ongoing studies about dental bleaching was collected and retrospectively analyzed. At the patient-level, independent variables (bleaching techniques [at-home and in-office protocols], sex, age and baseline tooth color in shade guide unit [SGU]) as well as dependent variables (color change in shade guide units (ΔSGU), color change in the CIEL*a*b* system (ΔE), risk and intensity of TS in a visual analog scale) were collected. Multivariable linear regression and multivariable logistic regression models were carried out using backward elimination whenever the p-values were higher than 0.05. A significant relationship between baseline color and age on color change estimates was detected (pwhitening degree of 0.07 for the final ΔSGU and 0.69 for the ΔE. The bleaching technique was shown to be a significant predictor of ΔSGU (prisk of TS for at-home bleaching was 51% (95% CI 41.4-60.6) and for the in-office 62.9% (95% CI 56.9-67.3). Younger patients with darker teeth reach a higher degree of whitening. Patient with darker teeth and submitted to at-home bleaching presents lower risk and intensity of TS. The baseline color of the teeth and the patient's age is directly related to the effectiveness of dental bleaching and TS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Fungible weights in logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeff A; Waller, Niels G

    2016-06-01

    In this article we develop methods for assessing parameter sensitivity in logistic regression models. To set the stage for this work, we first review Waller's (2008) equations for computing fungible weights in linear regression. Next, we describe 2 methods for computing fungible weights in logistic regression. To demonstrate the utility of these methods, we compute fungible logistic regression weights using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (2010) Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey, and we illustrate how these alternate weights can be used to evaluate parameter sensitivity. To make our work accessible to the research community, we provide R code (R Core Team, 2015) that will generate both kinds of fungible logistic regression weights. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Differential risk for late adolescent conduct problems and mood dysregulation among children with early externalizing behavior problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okado, Yuko; Bierman, Karen L

    2015-05-01

    To investigate the differential emergence of antisocial behaviors and mood dysregulation among children with externalizing problems, the present study prospectively followed 317 high-risk children with early externalizing problems from school entry (ages 5-7) to late adolescence (ages 17-19). Latent class analysis conducted on their conduct and mood symptoms in late adolescence revealed three distinct patterns of symptoms, characterized by: 1) criminal offenses, conduct disorder symptoms, and elevated anger ("conduct problems"), 2) elevated anger, dysphoric mood, and suicidal ideation ("mood dysregulation"), and 3) low levels of severe conduct and mood symptoms. A diathesis-stress model predicting the first two outcomes was tested. Elevated overt aggression at school entry uniquely predicted conduct problems in late adolescence, whereas elevated emotion dysregulation at school entry uniquely predicted mood dysregulation in late adolescence. Experiences of low parental warmth and peer rejection in middle childhood moderated the link between early emotion dysregulation and later mood dysregulation but did not moderate the link between early overt aggression and later conduct problems. Thus, among children with early externalizing behavior problems, increased risk for later antisocial behavior or mood dysfunction may be identifiable in early childhood based on levels of overt aggression and emotion dysregulation. For children with early emotion dysregulation, however, increased risk for mood dysregulation characterized by anger, dysphoric mood, and suicidality--possibly indicative of disruptive mood dysregulation disorder--emerges only in the presence of low parental warmth and/or peer rejection during middle childhood.

  18. Usefulness of the risk assessment technique in solving transportation problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, J.F.; Hall, R.J.

    1976-08-01

    The purpose was to develop and use a model to assess the risk associated with the shipment of nuclear and non-nuclear hazardous energy-related materials. The analysis method comprises the steps of describing the system, identifying the release sequence, evaluating the sequence, and calculating and assessing the risk. Plutonium shipment is used as an example. Uses of this method to improve transportation safety are discussed. 12 fig

  19. Eating disorders in ballet dancing students: problems and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toro, Josep; Guerrero, Marta; Sentis, Joan; Castro, Josefina; Puértolas, Carles

    2009-01-01

    To study the prevalence of symptoms of eating disorders and risk eating behaviours and the relationship between life at a dance school and the risk of developing an eating disorder (ED) in an adolescent population of Spanish dance students. Questionnaires were used to assess attitudes to eating, cultural influences on the body shape model, eating disorders (DSM-IV) and risk factors for eating disorders in 76 adolescent dance students (age 12-17 years) at the Barcelona Theatre Institute. Subjects were compared with a community sample of 453 female adolescents. To study the relationship between ED and characteristics of this particular school, an original questionnaire was administered to 105 students at the school aged from 12 to 21 years. The prevalence of eating disorders and several risk attitudes and behaviours were similar in the dance students and the female adolescents from the general population. Students at risk of eating disorders perceived greater pressure from coaches concerning eating, appearance, weight and artistic performance; they felt less satisfied with their weight and weighed themselves more often; they avoided performing so as not to exhibit their body in public, disliked comparing their body with their peers and believed that audiences paid a great deal of attention to their bodies. In contrast, Body Mass Index (BMI) had hardly any influence on these experiences. Depressive symptoms were associated almost exclusively with experience of stressors and aversive situations. Dance school students do not necessarily present a greater risk of ED than other girls of the same age. The risk of ED may be associated with greater pressure from coaches, with attitudes related to the ED itself, or with depressive symptoms, rather than with the BMI.

  20. Structured Parenting of Toddlers at High versus Low Genetic Risk: Two Pathways to Child Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leve, Leslie D.; Harold, Gordon T.; Ge, Xiaojia; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.; Shaw, Daniel; Scaramella, Laura V.; Reiss, David

    2009-01-01

    Objective: Little is known about how parenting might offset genetic risk to prevent the onset of child problems during toddlerhood. We used a prospective adoption design to separate genetic and environmental influences and test whether associations between structured parenting and toddler behavior problems were conditioned by genetic risk for…

  1. Risk Factors for Conduct Problems and Depressive Symptoms in a Cohort of Ukrainian Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drabick, Deborah A. G.; Beauchaine, Theodore P.; Gadow, Kenneth D.; Carlson, Gabrielle A.; Bromet, Evelyn J.

    2006-01-01

    Potential risk factors for conduct problems and depressive symptoms were tested in a cohort of 10- to 12-year-old Ukrainian children (N = 544, 47.6% male). Risk factors examined were child emotional lability, child attention problems, poor mother-child communication, coercive maternal discipline, maternal depression, and low marital satisfaction.…

  2. Structured parenting of toddlers at high versus low genetic risk: two pathways to child problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leve, Leslie D; Harold, Gordon T; Ge, Xiaojia; Neiderhiser, Jenae M; Shaw, Daniel; Scaramella, Laura V; Reiss, David

    2009-11-01

    Little is known about how parenting might offset genetic risk to prevent the onset of child problems during toddlerhood. We used a prospective adoption design to separate genetic and environmental influences and test whether associations between structured parenting and toddler behavior problems were conditioned by genetic risk for psychopathology. The sample included 290 linked sets of adoptive families and birth mothers and 95 linked birth fathers. Genetic risk was assessed via birth mother and birth father psychopathology (anxiety, depression, antisociality, and drug use). Structured parenting was assessed via microsocial coding of adoptive mothers' behavior during a cleanup task. Toddler behavior problems were assessed with the Child Behavior Checklist. Controlling for temperamental risk at 9 months, there was an interaction between birth mother psychopathology and adoptive mothers' parenting on toddler behavior problems at 18 months. The interaction indicated two pathways to child problems: structured parenting was beneficial for toddlers at high genetic risk but was related to behavior problems for toddlers at low genetic risk. This crossover interaction pattern was replicated with birth father psychopathology as the index of genetic risk. The effects of structured parenting on toddler behavior problems varied as a function of genetic risk. Children at genetic risk might benefit from parenting interventions during toddlerhood that enhance structured parenting.

  3. Minimal investment risk of a portfolio optimization problem with budget and investment concentration constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinzato, Takashi

    2017-02-01

    In the present paper, the minimal investment risk for a portfolio optimization problem with imposed budget and investment concentration constraints is considered using replica analysis. Since the minimal investment risk is influenced by the investment concentration constraint (as well as the budget constraint), it is intuitive that the minimal investment risk for the problem with an investment concentration constraint can be larger than that without the constraint (that is, with only the budget constraint). Moreover, a numerical experiment shows the effectiveness of our proposed analysis. In contrast, the standard operations research approach failed to identify accurately the minimal investment risk of the portfolio optimization problem.

  4. Probability problems in seismic risk analysis and load combinations for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, L.L.

    1983-01-01

    This workshop describes some probability problems in power plant reliability and maintenance analysis. The problems are seismic risk analysis, loss of load probability, load combinations, and load sharing. The seismic risk problem is to compute power plant reliability given an earthquake and the resulting risk. Component survival occurs if its peak random response to the earthquake does not exceed its strength. Power plant survival is a complicated Boolean function of component failures and survivals. The responses and strengths of components are dependent random processes, and the peak responses are maxima of random processes. The resulting risk is the expected cost of power plant failure

  5. Identifying risks for mental health problems in HIV positive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Mental health problems of adolescents are underserved in low and middle-income countries where they account for a significant proportion of disease burden. Perinatally infected HIV-positive adolescents have a high prevalence of mental health disorders; however, little is known about those retained in care in ...

  6. Logistic Fuel Processor Development

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Salavani, Reza

    2004-01-01

    The Air Base Technologies Division of the Air Force Research Laboratory has developed a logistic fuel processor that removes the sulfur content of the fuel and in the process converts logistic fuel...

  7. On problem of competing risks and their identification

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Volf, Petr

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 2015, 1-2 (2015), s. 85-92 ISSN 1210-8022 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-14445S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Survival analysis * competing risks * copula Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/SI/volf-0444645.pdf

  8. Death and danger at migratory stopovers: Problems with "predation risk"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lank, D.B.; Ydenberg, R.C.

    2003-01-01

    Dierschke (2003) recently published a paper entitled, ``Predation hazard during migratory stopover: are light or heavy birds under risk?¿¿ He measured the body condition of 11 species of passerine migrants depredated by feral cats and raptors at an offshore stopover site, and used these data to

  9. Technological risk: A problem of growing concern to government

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeckel, H.

    1980-01-01

    The enumeration of rudimentary technological risks alone shows that the governments of the European states must provide both diagnosis and therapy if the continent is not to degenerate into something between a fully automated chamber of horrors and a sordid refuse dump. Each of the European countries has introduced a great deal of valuable legislation. These laws are clearly inadequate. (DG)

  10. A risk-based approach to cleanup: Problems and pitfalls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anspaugh, L.

    1995-10-01

    This paper details information dealing with the meetings of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). Topics discussed include: Radtest program to summarize all data on radiation doses resulting from nuclear weapons testing; current status of US cleanup strategies; development of new milestones for the project due to reduced budgets; health hazards; and risk reduction

  11. Do adolescent delinquency and problem drinking share psychosocial risk factors? A literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curcio, Angela L; Mak, Anita S; George, Amanda M

    2013-04-01

    Despite the prevalence and damaging effects of adolescent problem drinking, relative to delinquency, far less research has focused on drinking using an integrated theoretical approach. The aim of the current research was to review existing literature on psychosocial risk factors for delinquency and problem drinking, and explore whether integrating elements of social learning theory with an established psychosocial control theory of delinquency could explain adolescent problem drinking. We reviewed 71 studies published post-1990 with particular focus on articles that empirically researched risk factors for adolescent problem drinking and delinquency in separate and concurrent studies and meta-analytic reviews. We found shared risk factors for adolescent delinquency and problem drinking that are encompassed by an extension of psychosocial control theory. The potential of an extended psychosocial control theory providing a parsimonious theoretical approach to explaining delinquency, problem drinking and other adolescent problem behaviours, along with suggestions for future investigations, is discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk analysis and solving the nuclear waste siting problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inhaber, H.

    1993-01-01

    In spite of millions of dollars and countless human resources being expended on finding nuclear wastes sites, the search has proved extremely difficult for the nuclear industry. This may be due to the approach followed, rather than inadequacies in research or funding. A new approach to the problem, the reverse Dutch auction, is suggested. It retains some of the useful elements of the present system, but it also adds new ones

  13. Psychological problems and family functioning as risk factors in addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agha, Sajida; Zia, Hamid; Irfan, Syed

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the present research was to determine the role of family functioning and psychological problems of drug addicts and non addicts by assessing the difference between the two groups. After detailed literature review it was hypothesized that scores on the variable of communication, affective expression and control among family members of addicts will be higher than non addicts. Furthermore scores on the variables of anger control problems, emotional distress and positive self will also be higher of addicts. This was a cohort study. A cluster sampling method was used. Sample of present research consisted of 240 adolescents divided into two groups of 120 addicts and 120 non-addicts each from different socio-economic status. General scale of Family Assessment Measure-Version III (FAM-III) was administered in order to measure the level of communication, value and norms whereas dyadic Relationship Scale was used to measure affective expression and control among the family members of addicts and non addicts. Renold Adolescent Adjustment Screening Inventory was administered in order to assess anger control problems, emotional distress and positive self in addicts and non addicts. t-test was calculated in order to determine the difference in the level of communication, value and norms, affective expression and control among families of addicts and non addicts. Furthermore difference in anger control problems, emotional distress and positive self between the addicts and non addicts was also determined by calculating t-test. Results showed significant differences in the variables among the family members and there is also a significant difference between addicts and non addicts. Avenues for further research have been suggested.

  14. Risk analysis and solving the nuclear waste siting problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inhaber, H.

    1993-12-01

    In spite of millions of dollars and countless human resources being expended on finding nuclear wastes sites, the search has proved extremely difficult for the nuclear industry. This may be due to the approach followed, rather than inadequacies in research or funding. A new approach to the problem, the reverse Dutch auction, is suggested. It retains some of the useful elements of the present system, but it also adds new ones.

  15. Reverse logistics - a framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.P. de Brito (Marisa); R. Dekker (Rommert)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we define and compare Reverse Logistics definitions. We start by giving an understanding framework of Reverse Logistics: the why-what-how. By this means, we put in context the driving forces for Reverse Logistics, a typology of return reasons, a classification of

  16. Logistics strategic decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steadie Seifi, M.; Farahani, R.Z.; Rezapour, S.; Kardar, L.

    2011-01-01

    Logistics has an important economic role because it swallows the biggest part of capital and supports the flow and movement of many economic transactions. Therefore, designing the best logistics strategies is vital. In this chapter, we take a look at different kinds of logistics decisions,

  17. Toward sustainable logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soysal, Mehmet; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, Jacqueline M.

    2017-01-01

    The fast evolution of sustainability leads to the development of a new fast-growing concept called sustainable logistics management. This research addresses recent business trends and challenges in logistics and their implications for sustainable logistics management. Additionally, we discuss policy

  18. Toward sustainable logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soysal, Mehmet; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, Jacqueline M.

    2018-01-01

    The fast evolution of sustainability leads to the development of a new fast-growing concept called sustainable logistics management. This research addresses recent business trends and challenges in logistics and their implications for sustainable logistics management. Additionally, we discuss policy

  19. Children with Internalizing Problems and Peer Problems : Risk Factors, Treatment Effectiveness, Moderation, and Mediation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, Saskia

    2014-01-01

    In this dissertation, internalizing and peer problems in children around the age of twelve were examined. These children were all about to make the transition to secondary school, or had just made that transition. The dissertation reports on four studies. First, we examined the extent to which the

  20. KSC ISS Logistics Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellado, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    The presentation contains a status of KSC ISS Logistics Operations. It basically presents current top level ISS Logistics tasks being conducted at KSC, current International Partner activities, hardware processing flow focussing on late Stow operations, list of KSC Logistics POC's, and a backup list of Logistics launch site services. This presentation is being given at the annual International Space Station (ISS) Multi-lateral Logistics Maintenance Control Panel meeting to be held in Turin, Italy during the week of May 13-16. The presentatiuon content doesn't contain any potential lessons learned.

  1. Total Logistic Plant Solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dusan Dorcak

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The Total Logistics Plant Solutions, plant logistics system - TLPS, based on the philosophy of advanced control processes enables complex coordination of business processes and flows and the management and scheduling of production in the appropriate production plans and planning periods. Main attributes of TLPS is to create a comprehensive, multi-level, enterprise logistics information system, with a certain degree of intelligence, which accepts the latest science and research results in the field of production technology and logistics. Logistic model of company understands as a system of mutually transforming flows of materials, energy, information, finance, which is realized by chain activities and operations

  2. Risk of alcohol dependence: prevalence, related problems and socioeconomic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Gabrielle Martins-Oliveira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The present study evaluated the possible alcohol dependence and related problems among adolescents and determined possible associations with socioeconomic factors and gender. A cross-sectional study was conducted with a representative sample of 936 adolescents aged 15 to 19 years enrolled at public and private schools in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Data related to alcohol consumption and associated problems were collected using the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT. The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI, mother's schooling and type of school were used to assess socioeconomic factors. Statistical analysis involved the chi-square test (p < 0.05 and Poisson regression. The prevalence of possible dependence was 16.4%, 52.1% reported concern of a family member regarding the adolescent's alcohol consumption. Female adolescents were less likely to exhibit possible dependence in comparison to males. Participants with living in a low vulnerability area were more likely to consume alcohol in comparison to those living in underprivileged areas. The results of the present study demonstrate that possible dependence was significantly associated with the male gender and low social vulnerability.

  3. Improving Healthcare Logistics Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feibert, Diana Cordes

    logistics processes in hospitals and aims to provide theoretically and empirically based evidence for improving these processes to both expand the knowledge base of healthcare logistics and provide a decision tool for hospital logistics managers to improve their processes. Case studies were conducted...... processes. Furthermore, a method for benchmarking healthcare logistics processes was developed. Finally, a theoretically and empirically founded framework was developed to support managers in making an informed decision on how to improve healthcare logistics processes. This study contributes to the limited...... literature concerned with the improvement of logistics processes in hospitals. Furthermore, the developed framework provides guidance for logistics managers in hospitals on how to improve their processes given the circumstances in which they operate....

  4. Assessment of perioperative mortality risk in patients with infective endocarditis undergoing cardiac surgery: performance of the EuroSCORE I and II logistic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madeira, Sérgio; Rodrigues, Ricardo; Tralhão, António; Santos, Miguel; Almeida, Carla; Marques, Marta; Ferreira, Jorge; Raposo, Luís; Neves, José; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-02-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) has been established as a tool for assisting decision-making in surgical patients and as a benchmark for quality assessment. Infective endocarditis often requires surgical treatment and is associated with high mortality. This study was undertaken to (i) validate both versions of the EuroSCORE, the older logistic EuroSCORE I and the recently developed EuroSCORE II and to compare their performances; (ii) identify predictors other than those included in the EuroSCORE models that might further improve their performance. We retrospectively studied 128 patients from a single-centre registry who underwent heart surgery for active infective endocarditis between January 2007 and November 2014. Binary logistic regression was used to find independent predictors of mortality and to create a new prediction model. Discrimination and calibration of models were assessed by receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The observed perioperative mortality was 16.4% (n = 21). The median EuroSCORE I and EuroSCORE II were 13.9% interquartile range (IQ) (7.0-35.0) and 6.6% IQ (3.5-18.2), respectively. Discriminative power was numerically higher for EuroSCORE II {area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-0.91]} than for EuroSCORE I [0.75 (95% CI, 0.66-0.85), P = 0.09]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good calibration for EuroSCORE II (P = 0.08) but not for EuroSCORE I (P = 0.04). EuroSCORE I tended to over-predict and EuroSCORE II to under-predict mortality. Among the variables known to be associated with greater infective endocarditis severity, only prosthetic valve infective endocarditis remained an independent predictor of mortality [odds ratio (OR) 6.6; 95% CI, 1.1-39.5; P = 0.04]. The new model including the EuroSCORE II variables and variables known to be associated with greater infective endocarditis severity showed an AUC of 0

  5. Radiation quality and radiation risks - some current problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kellerer, A.M.; Hahn, K.

    1989-01-01

    The newly evaluated cancer mortality data of the atomic bomb survivors suggest substantially enhanced risk estimates, and the various factors that are involved in the change are considered. The enhanced risk estimates have already led to added restrictions in the dose limits for radiation workers, and there may be a further tightening of regulations in the future. The impending revision of the quality factors in radiation protection may, therefore, lead to practical difficulties, and a careful consideration of the various aspects involved in a revision is required. A liaison group of ICRU and ICRP has proposed a reformulation of the quality factor that is related not to the LET, but to the microdosimetric variably y. The relation leads to increased quality factors for neutrons, but also to a quality factor for γ rays of only 0.5. Alternatives are presented that relate the quality factor to LET and that retain γ- rays as the reference radiation. One option corresponds to different quality factors for γ rays and X-rays, the other option sets the quality factor for photons approximately equal to unity, irrespective of energy. (author)

  6. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars, Based on Modeling Supply Chain Logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Franz, E.

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference

  7. Risk analysis and solving the nuclear waste siting problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inhaber, H.

    1994-01-01

    In spite of millions of dollars and countless human resources being expended on finding nuclear wastes sites, the search has proved extremely difficult for the nuclear industry. This may be due to the approach followed, rather than inadequacies in research or funding. A new approach to the problem, the reverse Dutch auction, is suggested. It retains some of the useful elements of the present system, but it also adds new ones. It allows natural market forces to set the level of compensation, rather than relying on close-door negotiations or theoretical calculations. Two flow charts show the pre-bid and post-bid steps of the reverse Duch auction system of Inhaber. It is assumed that a state wishes to site a waste facility somewhere in its boundaries. 22 refs., 3 figs

  8. International Production and Global Logistics Operations : Management Issues in Global Logistics with Offshored Production Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Korrmann, Franziska

    2011-01-01

    This paper is directed at discussing some of the management issues, problems and solutions of logistics in the context of offshored productive activities The introduction includes a discussion of the logistics topics and an introduction of the economic logic of offshoring. The main part analyses the logistics topics with regard to the internationally fragmented production. The topics of logistics include: Information flow and integration, transportation, inventory management, warehousing and ...

  9. Dari 'Logistic Management' Menuju 'Supply Chain Management' Dan Technology

    OpenAIRE

    Irawan, Judith Felicia

    2003-01-01

    To procure materials, maintain in-process inventory and delivery products to customers, companies provided traditional logistics activities. Operational traditional logistics included inbound logistics, intern logistics and outbound logistics, the flow of physical goods, are being managed separately. In the time being, companies cannot handle many problems such as customer service satisfaction. To solve many problems, synchronized management of the flow of physical goods and associated inform...

  10. Logistics service management; differentiating the logistics service

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veeken, van der D.J.M.; Rutten, W.G.M.M.

    1998-01-01

    In this article a model is described, which enables differentiation of the logistics service that a company offers to its customers. Differentiating this service is essential for businesses with a large variation within their customer and/or products portfolio. The model consists of four phases:

  11. R2E – identifying problems, mitigating risks

    CERN Document Server

    Anaïs Schaeffer

    2013-01-01

    During LS1, the R2E project team will be working on a task as painstaking as it is crucial: to achieve a sixfold reduction in the number of electronic malfunctions caused by radiation. On their success depends the ability of the accelerator to function correctly at nominal energy. No mean challenge, considering it comes on top of the tenfold reduction already achieved since 2009.   The graph plots the rate of LHC beam dumps due to single-event effects against beam luminosity. An indication of the challenge that faces the R2E project teams during LS1! The origins of the project known as R2E (Radiation to Electronics) go back to 2007, when the CNGS (CERN Neutrinos to Gran Sasso) experiment was being commissioned. "Right from the outset, some CNGS control systems were causing problems. They would regularly break down in operations with beam," recalls Markus Brugger, head of the R2E project. "Even though the beam intensity was very low, we began to suspect that radiati...

  12. Coalitions and family problem solving with preadolescents in referred, at-risk, and comparison families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuchinich, S; Wood, B; Vuchinich, R

    1994-12-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that the mother-father coalition, parent-child coalitions, and parental warmth expressed toward the child are associated with family problem solving in families with a preadolescent child referred for treatment of behavior problems (n = 30), families with a child at-risk for conduct disorder (n = 68), and a sample of comparison families (n = 90). Referred and at-risk families displayed less effective problem solving. A regression analysis, which controlled for gender of the child, family structure, family income, marital satisfaction, and severity of child problems, showed that strong parental coalitions were linked to low levels of family problem solving in at-risk and referred families. Parent-child coalitions had little apparent impact while parental warmth was highly correlated with better family problem solving. The results may be interpreted as evidence for a tendency for parents in at-risk and referred families to "scapegoat" a preadolescent during family problem-solving sessions. This may undermine progress on family problem solutions and may complicate family-based prevention and treatment programs that use family problem-solving sessions.

  13. Epistemological problems in assessing cancer risks at low radiation doses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walinder, G.

    1987-01-01

    Historically, biology has not been subjected to any epistemological analysis as has been the case with mathematics and physics. Our knowledge of the effects in biological systems of various stimuli proves to be dualistic in a complementary (although not mutually exclusive) way, which bears resemblance to the knowledge of phenomena in quantum physics. The dualistic limbs of biological knowledge are the action of stimuli and the response of the exposed, biological system. With regard to radiogenic cancer, this corresponds to the action of the ionizations and the response of the exposed mammal to that action, respectively. The following conclusions can be drawn from the present analysis: Predictions as to radiogenic cancer seem often if not always to have neglected the response variability (variations in radiosensitivity) in individuals or among individuals in populations, i.e. the predictions have been based exclusively on radiation doses and exposure conditions. The exposed individual or population, however, must be considered an open statistical system, i.e. a system in which predictions as to the effect of an agent are only conditionally possible. The knowledge is inverse to the size of the dose or concentration of the active agent. On epistemological grounds, we can not gain knowledge about the carcinogenic capacity of very low (non-dominant) radiation doses. Based on the same principle, we can not predict cancer risks at very low (non-dominant) radiation doses merely on the basis of models, or otherwise interpolated or extrapolated high-dose effects, observed under special exposure conditions

  14. Logistics Innovation Process Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gammelgaard, Britta; Su, Shong-Iee Ivan; Yang, Su-Lan

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to learn more about logistics innovation processes and their implications for the focal organization as well as the supply chain, especially suppliers. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical basis of the study is a longitudinal action research project...... that was triggered by the practical needs of new ways of handling material flows of a hospital. This approach made it possible to revisit theory on logistics innovation process. Findings – Apart from the tangible benefits reported to the case hospital, five findings can be extracted from this study: the logistics...... innovation process model may include not just customers but also suppliers; logistics innovation in buyer-supplier relations may serve as an alternative to outsourcing; logistics innovation processes are dynamic and may improve supplier partnerships; logistics innovations in the supply chain are as dependent...

  15. Type 1 diabetes risk in children born to women with fertility problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hargreave, Marie; Kjaer, Susanne K; Jørgensen, Marit E

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: While some studies have indicated that children born following fertility treatment are at an increased risk for insulin resistance and higher blood glucose levels, no study to date has investigated the risk of type 1 diabetes. In this large population-based cohort study we aim...... to assess the association between maternal fertility problems and the risk of type 1 diabetes in children. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Information on all children, born in Denmark from 1987 to 2010, was extracted from the Civil Registration System and linked with the Danish Infertility Cohort to identify maternal......%) were born to women with fertility problems. In all, 313 children born to women with fertility problems (0.36%) and 5176 children born to women without fertility problems (0.28%) were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. The risk of type 1 diabetes was not affected by maternal fertility status (hazard ratio...

  16. Skin problems in ostomy patients: a case-control study of risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nybaek, Hanne; Bang Knudsen, Dorte; Nørgaard Laursen, Troels

    2009-01-01

    Skin complications are frequent in ostomy patients and a number of risk factors have been suggested. The data on risk factors have, however, been documented mainly in single-centre studies and the actual importance of the suggested risk factors should therefore be verified in a group of ostomy...... patients broadly selected from the gene-ral population. All patients with permanent ostomies living in Roskilde County, Denmark, were invited to participate in the study. A total of 338 responded and 199 agreed to participate. Forty-five percent of all patients presented a skin problem. Less than half (43......%) of patients with a skin problem were aware of the skin problems, and less than 1 in 5 (16%) had sought treatment for their skin problem. Ileostomies, ostomies with leakage and ostomies in patients with body mass index >30 were associated with skin problems. In conclusion, ileostomy, leakage and obesity...

  17. LOGISTICS - EVOLUTION THROUGH INNOVATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrache Alexandru Constantin

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The current economic conditions, the rapidity with which the exchange of information, resources and products in the market takes place makes the logistics seem appreciably less significant. However, the importance of logistics has been presented in the military field, through strategies that have led to wining of the great wars that mankind has seen, through the supply of troops with food or moving military equipment. The literature in the field of logistics has numerous works on this topic. But while most focuses on efficient ways of carrying out the component activities of logistics or the strategies of organizations with regard to logistics or its functions, research on dynamics of logistics is underdeveloped. To be able to propose new methods or strategies of logistic activities is necessary to understand the development of this concept, determinant factors and economic and social conditions that gave rise to such developments. Thus, after a presentation of the main landmarks of the historical development of logistics we highlight the importance of the innovation within an organization's value chain innovation, in particular, and how to conduct the business in general. Using generations of innovation identified in the literature, we determine the generation of logistics development, taking into account innovation and how to conduct business. In addition for a better highlight of the own vision over the logistics generations identified, we will present the graphical concept for each generation in part. Last but not least, for each generation identified we try to allocate the chronological landmarks featured in order to reinforce the importance played by innovation in the development of the logistics industry and to give future directions of research within this topic. The study took into account the information presented in articles, books and websites of the relevant specialty in logistics and innovation to be able to build and expose a

  18. WAREOOUSE LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Drago Pupavac

    2012-01-01

    Warehouse Logistics Management involves the management of storage facilities and equipment, stock, employees and technology with the aim of efficient storage, accommodation, and distribution of goods and more importantly profitably. In conditions of economic crisis and lower inventory turns, logistics managers put emphasis on those measures as a function of storage logistics cost reductions that require minimal investment. Accordingly, the fundamental objective of this scientific paper is to ...

  19. Problems and fall risk determinants of quality of life in older adults with increased risk of falling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Sang-I; Chang, Ku-Chou; Lee, Hsuei-Chen; Yang, Yi-Ching; Tsauo, Jau-Yih

    2015-05-01

    Determine quality of life and its association with fall risk factors in older adults with increased risk of falling. A total of 597 community-dwelling Taiwanese older adults who were screened to have increased risk of falling participated in the present study. The fall risk factors included sociodemographics, physical and psychological function, Timed Up and Go, past fall/medical histories, fear of falling and medications. The Euro QOL EQ-5D was used to measure health-related quality of life. Pain/discomfort was the EQ-5D dimension most frequently reported to be impaired (35%), regardless of the level of fall risk or age groups, followed by mobility (25%). Hierarchical regression analysis showed that Geriatric Depression Scale, Mini-Mental State Examination, physiological function, up-and-go, fear of falling and psychotropic medication were independent predictors for total EQ-5D, explaining 68.37% of the variance. Logistic regression analysis showed that for the five EQ-5D dimensions, Geriatric Depression Scale and Up and Go time were the most common determinants. Pain/discomfort was the leading impairment, and greater Geriatric Depression Scale and longer up-and-go time were the main contributing factors in declines in quality of life in older adults with increased risk of falling. These factors are often modifiable, and their management might be considered a priority in falls prevention. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  20. Management and logistics

    OpenAIRE

    Jereb, Borut; Drašković, Mimo; Gorenak, Irena; Bauk, Sanja; Fošner, Maja; Rosi, Bojan; Pupavac, Drago; Topolšek, Darja; Dorokhov, Oleksandr; Kramar, Uroš; Ivanović, Željko; Sternad, Marjan; Knez, Matjaž; Mlaker Kač, Sonja; Malyaretz, Ludmila

    2018-01-01

    The scientific monograph titled Logistics and Management – selected topics is the result of a bilateral project, lasting from 2013 to 2015 and titled “Preparation of a joint scientific monograph in the field of logistics and management issued at the Faculty of Logistics in Celje and the Maritime Faculty of Kotor”. The project was managed by Professor Maja Fošner, PhD, from the Faculty of Logistics at the University of Maribor, and Professor Veselin Draskovic, PdD, from the Maritime Faculty of...

  1. Logistics engineering education from the point of view environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bányai, Ágota

    2010-05-01

    centres, connecting virtual logistic companies in a network; the environmental harmonisation of international transportation. The third large area is recycling logistics. Here the bodies of knowledge are as follows: the concept of developing a ‘closed-loop economy'; stages in the progress of products after discarding, connections between the uses of waste collection, processing, selection, deposition or reuse processes; features of European recommendations (e.g. EMAS), harmonisation of national practices and global solutions; presenting the logistics part-processes of recycling; presenting process organisation procedures for the foundation of designing one-route, multi-route, replacement container waste collecting and distributing part systems; recycling strategies with consideration of logistically serving the separation and storage of waste to be deposited, the technological processing systems of recyclable materials; presenting dismantling and product and material identification technologies, presenting logistics part-tasks, analysis of technical solutions; IT solutions for identifying products and their elements to be distributed and withdrawn from distribution after use (e.g. RFID systems) and monitoring their material flow; methodology of using efficiency analyses and incentive systems in the decision making processes of recycling processes, risk analysis for evaluating typical part processes; the methodology of recycling-oriented product design for specific product groups. Graduates of the Master programmes are able to use and utilise the knowledge obtained in practice, use problem-solving techniques; process the information, new problems and new phenomena arising in the border areas of the professional experience gained the discipline; formulate substantial criticism and opinions as far as possible, make decisions and draw conclusions; comprehending and solving the problems arising, suggesting original ideas; plan and perform tasks independently at a high

  2. Alexithymia predicts loss chasing for people at risk for problem gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bibby, Peter A; Ross, Katherine E

    2017-12-01

    Background and aims The aim of this research was to investigate the relationship between alexithymia and loss-chasing behavior in people at risk and not at risk for problem gambling. Methods An opportunity sample of 58 (50 males and 8 females) participants completed the Problem Gambling Severity Index and the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20). They then completed the Cambridge Gambling Task from which a measure of loss-chasing behavior was derived. Results Alexithymia and problem gambling risk were significantly positively correlated. Subgroups of non-alexithymic and at or near caseness for alexithymia by low risk and at risk for problem gambling were identified. The results show a clear difference for loss-chasing behavior for the two alexithymia conditions, but there was no evidence that low and at-risk problem gamblers were more likely to loss chase. The emotion-processing components of the TAS-20 were shown to correlate with loss chasing. Discussion and conclusion These findings suggest that loss-chasing behavior may be particularly prevalent in a subgroup of problem gamblers those who are high in alexithymia.

  3. Childhood socioeconomic status and longitudinal patterns of alcohol problems: Variation across etiological pathways in genetic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Peter B; Silberg, Judy; Dick, Danielle M; Maes, Hermine H

    2018-05-14

    Childhood socioeconomic status (SES) is an important aspect of early life environment associated with later life health/health behaviors, including alcohol misuse. However, alcohol misuse is modestly heritable and involves differing etiological pathways. Externalizing disorders show significant genetic overlap with substance use, suggesting an impulsivity pathway to alcohol misuse. Alcohol misuse also overlaps with internalizing disorders, suggesting alcohol is used to cope. These differing pathways could lead to different patterns over time and/or differential susceptibility to environmental conditions, such as childhood SES. We examine whether: 1) genetic risk for externalizing and internalizing disorders influence trajectories of alcohol problems across adolescence to adulthood, 2) childhood SES alters genetic risk these disorders on trajectories of alcohol problems, and 3) these patterns are consistent across sex. We find modest evidence of gene-environment interaction. Higher childhood SES increases the risk of alcohol problems in late adolescence/early adulthood, while lower childhood SES increases the risk of alcohol problems in later adulthood, but only among males at greater genetic risk of externalizing disorders. Females from lower SES families with higher genetic risk of internalizing or externalizing disorders have greater risk of developing alcohol problems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A Risk-Sensitive Portfolio Optimization Problem with Fixed Incomes Securities

    OpenAIRE

    Goel, Mayank; Kumar, K. Suresh

    2007-01-01

    We discuss a class of risk-sensitive portfolio optimization problems. We consider the portfolio optimization model investigated by Nagai in 2003. The model by its nature can include fixed income securities as well in the portfolio. Under fairly general conditions, we prove the existence of optimal portfolio in both finite and infinite horizon problems.

  5. Developmental Risk and Young Children's Regulatory Strategies: Predicting Behavior Problems at Age Five

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerstein, Emily D.; Pedersen y Arbona, Anita; Crnic, Keith A.; Ryu, Ehri; Baker, Bruce L.; Blacher, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Children with early developmental delays are at heightened risk for behavior problems and comorbid psychopathology. This study examined the trajectories of regulatory capabilities and their potentially mediating role in the development of behavior problems for children with and without early developmental delays. A sample of 231 children comprised…

  6. Lesion size affects diagnostic performance of IOTA logistic regression models, IOTA simple rules and risk of malignancy index in discriminating between benign and malignant adnexal masses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Legge, A; Testa, A C; Ameye, L; Van Calster, B; Lissoni, A A; Leone, F P G; Savelli, L; Franchi, D; Czekierdowski, A; Trio, D; Van Holsbeke, C; Ferrazzi, E; Scambia, G; Timmerman, D; Valentin, L

    2012-09-01

    To estimate the ability to discriminate between benign and malignant adnexal masses of different size using: subjective assessment, two International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) logistic regression models (LR1 and LR2), the IOTA simple rules and the risk of malignancy index (RMI). We used a multicenter IOTA database of 2445 patients with at least one adnexal mass, i.e. the database previously used to prospectively validate the diagnostic performance of LR1 and LR2. The masses were categorized into three subgroups according to their largest diameter: small tumors (diameter IOTA simple rules and the RMI were applied to each of the three groups. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio (LR+, LR-), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) were used to describe diagnostic performance. A moving window technique was applied to estimate the effect of tumor size as a continuous variable on the AUC. The reference standard was the histological diagnosis of the surgically removed adnexal mass. The frequency of invasive malignancy was 10% in small tumors, 19% in medium-sized tumors and 40% in large tumors; 11% of the large tumors were borderline tumors vs 3% and 4%, respectively, of the small and medium-sized tumors. The type of benign histology also differed among the three subgroups. For all methods, sensitivity with regard to malignancy was lowest in small tumors (56-84% vs 67-93% in medium-sized tumors and 74-95% in large tumors) while specificity was lowest in large tumors (60-87%vs 83-95% in medium-sized tumors and 83-96% in small tumors ). The DOR and the AUC value were highest in medium-sized tumors and the AUC was largest in tumors with a largest diameter of 7-11 cm. Tumor size affects the performance of subjective assessment, LR1 and LR2, the IOTA simple rules and the RMI in discriminating correctly between benign and malignant adnexal masses. The likely explanation, at least in part, is

  7. Smart logistics: an enterprise architecture perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Sinderen, Marten J.; Singh, Prince Mayurank; Wieringa, Roel J.

    Logistic enterprises are increasingly becoming smarter and more ecient by using real-time contextual data. A currently unsolved problem for small to medium sized logistic service providers (SMLSPs) is, how to use real time data in existing business processes & IT systems. Enterprise architecture can

  8. Voice problems among Slovenian physicians compared to the teachers: Prevalence and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maja Šereh Bahar

    2012-09-01

    Conclusions: The prevalence of voice disorders among outpatients’ physicians in Slovenia is high and is comparable to the incidence of voice problems in Slovenian teachers. URI is the most common cause of these voice problems. GERD, allergies and an age over 40 years were stated as the risk factors for voice disorders. In order to reduce the extent of voice problems, lessons on vocal hygiene, and additional information about diseases causing voice disorders should be included in their postgraduate education.

  9. Risk Factors in Adolescent Problem Behaviors Among Native and Nonnative Americans

    OpenAIRE

    Christensen, Roger B.

    1998-01-01

    The high incidence of adolescent problem behaviors in the United States raises major concerns. These problem behaviors include: sexually transmitted diseases, unintended pregnancies, suicide, depression, substance abuse, crime against persons and property, and delinquency. Consequently, there continues to be a high level of concern and interest in different ethnic populations of adolescents and their level of risk. This study evaluated the following problem behaviors: substance abuse, suic...

  10. Genetic Risk by Experience Interaction for Childhood Internalizing Problems: Converging Evidence across Multiple Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vendlinski, Matthew K.; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Essex, Marilyn J.; Goldsmith, H. Hill

    2011-01-01

    Background: Identifying how genetic risk interacts with experience to predict psychopathology is an important step toward understanding the etiology of mental health problems. Few studies have examined genetic risk by experience interaction (GxE) in the development of childhood psychopathology. Methods: We used both co-twin and parent mental…

  11. Problems of dosimetry and risk assessment associated with inhalation of fuel particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Repin, V.S.; Nechaev, S.Y.; Bondarenko, O.A.; Bykorez, A.I.; Kononenko, L.I.

    1995-01-01

    This work deals with the problems of dosimetry and risk assessment associated with inhalation of fuel particles. Radioactive emission parameters and potential for assessment of the lung cancer risk with inhalation penetration of hot particles are described. (O.L.). 10 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab

  12. Behavioral Operations in Logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. de Vries (Jelle)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractIn the world of logistics, a considerable share of all work is automated and performed by machines or robots. An examination of the existing logistics research reflects this image, since a substantial share of the studies focus on automated processes, and perfectly predictable

  13. Green Maritime Logistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.

    2016-01-01

    By green maritime logistics we mean achieving an acceptable environmental performance of the maritime transport logistical supply chain while at the same time respecting traditional economic criteria. In this paper the environmental focus is on maritime emissions. Achieving such goal may involve ...

  14. Problem formulation for risk assessment of combined exposures to chemicals and other stressors in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Keith R; Wilks, Martin F; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Moretto, Angelo; Pastoor, Timothy P; Phillips, Richard; Embry, Michelle R

    2016-11-01

    When the human health risk assessment/risk management paradigm was developed, it did not explicitly include a "problem formulation" phase. The concept of problem formulation was first introduced in the context of ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the pragmatic reason to constrain and focus ERAs on the key questions. However, this need also exists for human health risk assessment, particularly for cumulative risk assessment (CRA), because of its complexity. CRA encompasses the combined threats to health from exposure via all relevant routes to multiple stressors, including biological, chemical, physical and psychosocial stressors. As part of the HESI Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) Project, a framework for CRA was developed in which problem formulation plays a critical role. The focus of this effort is primarily on a chemical CRA (i.e., two or more chemicals) with subsequent consideration of non-chemical stressors, defined as "modulating factors" (ModFs). Problem formulation is a systematic approach that identifies all factors critical to a specific risk assessment and considers the purpose of the assessment, scope and depth of the necessary analysis, analytical approach, available resources and outcomes, and overall risk management goal. There are numerous considerations that are specific to multiple stressors, and proper problem formulation can help to focus a CRA to the key factors in order to optimize resources. As part of the problem formulation, conceptual models for exposures and responses can be developed that address these factors, such as temporal relationships between stressors and consideration of the appropriate ModFs.

  15. International Logistics Science Conference

    CERN Document Server

    Hompel, Michael; Meier, J

    2014-01-01

    The importance of logistics in all its variations is still increasing. New technologies emerge, new planning methods and algorithms are developed, only to face a market with a growing complexity and the need of weighting monetary costs against ecological impact. Mastering these challenges requires a scientific viewpoint on logistics, but always with applications in mind. This volume presents up-to-date logistics research in all its diversity and interconnectedness. It grew out of the “International Logistics Science Conference” (ILSC) held in Dortmund in September 2013, bringing together leading scientists and young academics from nine different countries. The conference was jointly organized by the “Efficiency Cluster Logistics” and the “Fraunhofer Institute for Material Flow and Logistics”. The Program Committee used a double blind review process to choose the 12 strongest contributions, which were then grouped in four areas: - Sustainability logistics, including electric mobility, smart inform...

  16. SIMULATION OF LOGISTICS PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. Taranenko

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the theoretical basis of the simulation. The study shows the simulation of logistic processes in industrial countries is an integral part of many economic projects aimed at the creation or improvement of logistics systems. The paper was used model Beer Game for management of logistics processes in the enterprise. The simulation model implements in AnyLogic package. AnyLogic product allows us to consider the logistics processes as an integrated system, which allows reaching better solutions. Logistics process management involves pooling the sales market, production and distribution to ensure the temporal level of customer service at the lowest cost overall. This made it possible to conduct experiments and to determine the optimal size of the warehouse at the lowest cost.

  17. Prevalence and incidence of mental health problems among Dutch medical students and the study-related and personal risk factors: a longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borst, Jorien M; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Sluiter, Judith K

    2016-11-01

    A high prevalence of mental health problems (i.e. depression and/or anxiety) has been found in medical students in comparison with the general population. Therefore, the objective was first to study the prevalence and 1-year incidence of symptoms of depression, anxiety and any mental health problems among Dutch medical students and, second, to study which study-related and personal factors present a risk of these mental health problems. A 1-year prospective longitudinal study was performed among medical students of two medical faculties in the Netherlands (n=951). Health problems and study-related and personal factors were measured with an online questionnaire. Mental health problems were assessed by depression and/or anxiety symptoms (BSI-DEP and BSI-ANG). Univariate and multivariate hierarchical logistic regression analyses were performed to examine which of the study-related and personal factors predict mental health problems. At follow-up, 36%, 28% and 48% of the medical students reported symptoms of depression, anxiety and mental health problems, respectively. The incidence between 2010 and 2011 for depression was 20%, 17% for anxiety and 25% for mental health problems. Students who are worried about their own health during medical education are at an increased risk of future mental health problems (OR 2.0 [1.3-2.9], p=0.00). Excessive drinking behavior is a protective factor in this study (OR 0.7 [0.5-0.9], p=0.02). This study shows that only two out of nine factors are significantly associated with mental health problems among Dutch medical students, one risk factor and one protective factor.

  18. Quantification of the detriment and comparison of health risks. Methodological problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammet, H.

    1982-01-01

    Some of the methodological problems involved in the quantitative estimate of the health detriment of different energy sources and in risk comparison are described. First, the question of determining the detriment is discussed from the point of view of the distortions introduced in the quantification when dealing with risks for which the amount of information available varies widely. The main criteria applied to classifying types of detriment are then recalled. Finally, the problems involved in comparisons are outlined: spatial and temporal variations in the types of detriment, operation under normal and accident conditions, and the risks to the public and workers. (author)

  19. Logistics and logistics support in crisis management and citizen protection

    OpenAIRE

    HOLEJŠOVSKÝ, Jan

    2010-01-01

    ABSTRAKT LOGISTICS AND LOGISTICS SUPPORT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND CITIZEN PROTECTION The graduation thesis on topic "Logistics and logistics support in crisis management and citizen protection" is divided into several chapters, which in summary are a material presenting information about logistics and logistics support in crisis management and citizen protection. This was one of the aims at this work. Chapters I., II., III., IV. describe logistics and logistics support, crisis management, cit...

  20. Two Chaotic Patterns of Dynamic Risk Definition for Solving Hazardous Materials Routing Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abbas Mahmoudabadi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the case of determining routes for hazardous material transportation, risk is considered as a main attribute. Transport risk, which is usually combined with other attributes such as cost or travel time, plays a significant role in determining paths for hazardous materials transportation. Since, risk is chaotically affected by road incidents, decision makers are dealing with selecting a method for defining chaotic risk factors in hazmat transportation. In this paper, transport risk has been defined as a chaotic variable using two different methods of generating chaotic patterns. In an experimental road network, which consists of eighty-nine nodes and one hundred and one two-way links, two different methods of generating chaotic variables have been used for applying the proposed procedure. In addition, results for different amounts of risk and cost have also been analyzed in case study. Results revealed that different cost and risk priorities change the frequencies of selected paths determined for hazmat transportation, but the route convergence of the route to chaos method is better than that of the logistic map equation.

  1. Analysis of Jingdong Mall Logistics Distribution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Kang; Cheng, Feng

    In recent years, the development of electronic commerce in our country to speed up the pace. The role of logistics has been highlighted, more and more electronic commerce enterprise are beginning to realize the importance of logistics in the success or failure of the enterprise. In this paper, the author take Jingdong Mall for example, performing a SWOT analysis of their current situation of self-built logistics system, find out the problems existing in the current Jingdong Mall logistics distribution and give appropriate recommendations.

  2. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy green vegetables consumed at salad bars, based on modeling supply chain logistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; Franz, E

    2010-10-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference between simulating supply chain logistics (MOD) and assuming fixed storage times (FIX) in microbial risk estimation for the supply chain of fresh-cut leafy green vegetables destined for working-canteen salad bars. The results of the FIX model were previously published (E. Franz, S. O. Tromp, H. Rijgersberg, and H. J. van der Fels-Klerx, J. Food Prot. 73:274-285, 2010). Pathogen growth was modeled using stochastic discrete-event simulation of the applied logistics concept. The public health effects were assessed by conducting an exposure assessment and risk characterization. The relative growths of Escherichia coli O157 (17%) and Salmonella enterica (15%) were identical in the MOD and FIX models. In contrast, the relative growth of Listeria monocytogenes was considerably higher in the MOD model (1,156%) than in the FIX model (194%). The probability of L. monocytogenes infection in The Netherlands was higher in the MOD model (5.18×10(-8)) than in the FIX model (1.23×10(-8)). The risk of listeriosis-induced fetal mortality in the perinatal population increased from 1.24×10(-4) (FIX) to 1.66×10(-4) (MOD). Modeling the probabilistic nature of supply chain logistics is of additional value for microbial risk assessments regarding psychrotrophic pathogens in food products for which time and temperature are the postharvest preventive measures in guaranteeing food safety.

  3. Logistic control in automated transportation networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ebben, Mark

    2001-01-01

    Increasing congestion problems lead to a search for alternative transportation systems. Automated transportation networks, possibly underground, are an option. Logistic control systems are essential for future implementations of such automated transportation networks. This book contributes to the

  4. Risk communications : an important part of the solution to the problem of gas flaring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruk, G.E.

    1999-01-01

    The 'human' aspect of risk management as it relates to the problem of gas flaring was discussed in an effort to find an effective strategy for dealing with the problem. The 'human' aspect is important for both public consent and regulatory approval. The discipline of risk communications understands that the main issue is not the level of risk, but its acceptability to the public. The author believes that risk should be defined broadly so that it is not limited only to threats to public health and safety, but also to threats to the environment and quality of life. The five main strategic aspects of risk that influence the public's judgement of the level and acceptability of a risk are when: (1) the risk is created by organizations the public feels they cannot trust, (2) the risk is regarded as having been involuntarily imposed on them, (3) the public feels it has no personal control over project decisions, (4) the risk is viewed as unfair, and (5) the risk is managed by people who appear uncaring. A list of other influential factors was also provided. The ultimate objective of any risk communication strategy would be to enhance the affected public's ability to make an informed decision about the acceptability of the risk to which they are exposed. When dealing with the gas flaring problem, it is important to develop greater consensus of 'how safe is safe enough?' It was emphasized that trust is the most important factor in reducing public anxieties about risk and in strengthening relationships. The development of a strategy that has public support requires continuous stakeholder involvement

  5. Strategic fleet planning for city logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franceschetti, Anna; Honhon, Dorothee; Laporte, G.; van Woensel, T.; Fransoo, J.C.

    2017-01-01

    We study the strategic problem of a logistics service provider managing a (possibly heterogeneous) fleet of vehicles to serve a city in the presence of access restrictions. We model the problem as an area partitioning problem in which a rectangular service area has to be divided into sectors, each

  6. Security in Logistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cempírek, Václav; Nachtigall, Petr; Široký, Jaromír

    2016-12-01

    This paper deals with security of logistic chains according to incorrect declaration of transported goods, fraudulent transport and forwarding companies and possible threats caused by political influences. The main goal of this paper is to highlight possible logistic costs increase due to these fraudulent threats. An analysis of technological processes will beis provided, and an increase of these transport times considering the possible threatswhich will beis evaluated economic costs-wise. In the conclusion, possible threat of companies'` efficiency in logistics due to the costs`, means of transport and increase in human resources` increase will beare pointed out.

  7. Applied logistic regression

    CERN Document Server

    Hosmer, David W; Sturdivant, Rodney X

    2013-01-01

     A new edition of the definitive guide to logistic regression modeling for health science and other applications This thoroughly expanded Third Edition provides an easily accessible introduction to the logistic regression (LR) model and highlights the power of this model by examining the relationship between a dichotomous outcome and a set of covariables. Applied Logistic Regression, Third Edition emphasizes applications in the health sciences and handpicks topics that best suit the use of modern statistical software. The book provides readers with state-of-

  8. FEEDBACK AND LOGISTICS CONTROLLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehesne Berek Szilvia

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The following things led to that the feedback, the supervision and improvement of the processes have become more pronounced: continuous rise in the importance of logistics; increase in complexity of its content; its activity becoming more complex. These activities are necessary for the optimum information supply. The intensification of market competition requires the corporations to possess exact and up-to-date information about their activities. Complexity of the logistics system presumes a parallel application of an effective feedback, supervision and management system simultaneously with the given logistics system. The indispensability of logistics is also proved by the fact that it can be found sporadically (in the form of logistics departments or in a complex way in case of each organization. The logistical approach means a huge support in the management since it contains the complexity, the handling as a unit in order to ensure a harmony of the different corporate departments and part activities. In addition to the professional application of a logistics system, there is an opportunity to coordinate the relations inside an organization as well as between the organizations and to handle them as a unit. The sine qua non of the success of logistical processes is a harmony of the devices applied. The controlling system is a device for feeding back the processes of a corporate system. By means of the checkpoints intercalated into the processes, the logistics controlling provides information for the leadership which contributes even more to the complex approach of logistics system. By dint of the logistics controlling, the monitoring and coordination of every logistical part activity become possible with the help of information supply ensured by the logistics controlling. The logistics controlling reviews, assesses and coordinates; these activities have an effect on the cost and income management. Its reason is to be searched in the built

  9. The risk-based approach to anti-money laundering: problems and solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonova, Anna

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper, which is a part of a PhD thesis, is to detect problems associated with the risk-based approach to anti-money laundering (AML), as well as present ways to improve the risk-based approach. Design/methodology/approach – The method is law and economics. The Ph......D thesis itself is also based on a comparative analysis of the Danish and British AML regimes. Findings – The main findings are: failure to develop adequate risk-based AML systems, taking into account varying levels of money laundering risk, is not only to be considered in the context of legal risk...... but also and more importantly in the context of integrity risk; anti-money laundering (AML) has to be made part of financial and non-financial institutions' corporate social responsibility policies; the Risk Analysis Manual provided by the Central Bank of The Netherlands lists very specific...

  10. Demographic, Behavioural and Normative Risk Factors for Gambling Problems Amongst Sports Bettors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hing, Nerilee; Russell, Alex M T; Vitartas, Peter; Lamont, Matthew

    2016-06-01

    Sports betting is growing exponentially, is heavily marketed and successfully targets young adult males. Associated gambling problems are increasing. Therefore, understanding risk factors for problem gambling amongst sports bettors is an increasingly important area of research to inform the appropriate design and targeting of public health and treatment interventions. This study aimed to identify demographic, behavioural and normative risk factors for gambling problems amongst sports bettors. An online survey of 639 Australian sports bettors using online, telephone and retail betting channels was conducted. Results indicated that vulnerable sports bettors for higher risk gambling are those who are young, male, single, educated, and employed full-time or a full-time student. Risk of problem gambling was also found to increase with greater frequency and expenditure on sports betting, greater diversity of gambling involvement, and with more impulsive responses to betting opportunities, including in-play live action betting. Normative influences from media advertising and from significant others were also associated with greater problem gambling risk. The results of this study can inform a suite of intervention, protection and treatment initiatives targeted especially at young male adults and adolescents that can help to limit the harm from this gambling form.

  11. Oral health and oral health risk behaviour in children with and without externalising behaviour problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staberg, M; Norén, J G; Gahnberg, L; Ghaderi, A; Kadesjö, C; Robertson, A

    2018-05-15

    This was to study children with early detected externalising behaviour problems compared to matched controls regarding oral health, oral health risk behaviour and the parental evaluation of the child's oral health and dental care. Children aged 10-13 years and with externalising behaviour problems, were compared to matched controls. Behavioural characteristics were based on the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire. The children and their parents completed questionnaires regarding dental fear, tooth brushing, dietary habits and evaluation of oral health and dental care. Data on dental caries risk assessments, caries, behaviour management problems and dental trauma were obtained from dental files. There were no differences in caries prevalence in children with early detected externalising behaviour problems, compared to controls. However, the former group consumed more sweet drinks when thirsty and brushed their teeth fewer than twice daily; they also had more dental trauma in both dentitions and a higher risk range for dental fear, compared to controls. This study points out potential oral health risk factors in children with early-detected externalising behaviour problems. Although no difference in caries prevalence was observed, externalising behaviour may affect oral health. Therefore, dental professionals should support the families and the children to preserve dental health by offering increased prophylactic measures. There were no differences between children with externalising behaviour problems, compared with controls, regarding the parent evaluation of their child's dental health. However, more parents in the study group evaluated the dental care as poor or not functioning.

  12. Early-onset Conduct Problems: Predictions from daring temperament and risk taking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Sunhye; Lee, Steve S

    2017-12-01

    Given its considerable public health significance, identifying predictors of early expressions of conduct problems is a priority. We examined the predictive validity of daring, a key dimension of temperament, and the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART), a laboratory-based measure of risk taking behavior, with respect to two-year change in parent, teacher-, and youth self-reported oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), conduct disorder (CD), and antisocial behavior. At baseline, 150 ethnically diverse 6- to 10-year old (M=7.8, SD=1.1; 69.3% male) youth with ( n =82) and without ( n =68) DSM-IV ADHD completed the BART whereas parents rated youth temperament (i.e., daring); parents and teachers also independently rated youth ODD and CD symptoms. Approximately 2 years later, multi-informant ratings of youth ODD, CD, and antisocial behavior were gathered from rating scales and interviews. Whereas risk taking on the BART was unrelated to conduct problems, individual differences in daring prospectively predicted multi-informant rated conduct problems, independent of baseline risk taking, conduct problems, and ADHD diagnostic status. Early differences in the propensity to show positive socio-emotional responses to risky or novel experiences uniquely predicted escalating conduct problems in childhood, even with control of other potent clinical correlates. We consider the role of temperament in the origins and development of significant conduct problems from childhood to adolescence, including possible explanatory mechanisms underlying these predictions.

  13. Contextual risk, maternal parenting and adolescent externalizing behaviour problems: the role of emotion regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, A; Flouri, Eirini

    2010-03-01

    The objective of this study was to test if emotion regulation mediates the association between mothers' parenting and adolescents' externalizing behaviour problems (conduct problems and hyperactivity). The parenting dimensions were warmth, psychological control and behavioural control (measured with knowledge, monitoring and discipline). Adjustment was made for contextual risk (measured with the number of proximal adverse life events experienced), gender, age and English as an additional language. Data were from a UK community sample of adolescents aged 11-18 from a comprehensive school in a disadvantaged area. At the multivariate level, none of the parenting variables predicted hyperactivity, which was associated only with difficulties in emotion regulation, contextual risk and English as a first language. The parenting variables predicting conduct problems at the multivariate level were warmth and knowledge. Knowledge did not predict emotion regulation. However, warmth predicted emotion regulation, which was negatively associated with conduct problems. Contextual risk was a significant predictor of both difficulties in emotion regulation and externalizing behaviour problems. Its effect on conduct problems was independent of parenting and was not via its association with difficulties in emotion regulation. The findings add to the evidence for the importance of maternal warmth and contextual risk for both regulated emotion and regulated behaviour. The small maternal control effects on both emotion regulation and externalizing behaviour could suggest the importance of paternal control for adolescent outcomes.

  14. Logistics and Inventory System -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Logistics and Inventory System (LIS) is the agencys primary supply/support automation tool. The LIS encompasses everything from order entry by field specialists...

  15. Green Logistics Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yoon S.; Oh, Chang H.

    Nowadays, environmental management becomes a critical business consideration for companies to survive from many regulations and tough business requirements. Most of world-leading companies are now aware that environment friendly technology and management are critical to the sustainable growth of the company. The environment market has seen continuous growth marking 532B in 2000, and 590B in 2004. This growth rate is expected to grow to 700B in 2010. It is not hard to see the environment-friendly efforts in almost all aspects of business operations. Such trends can be easily found in logistics area. Green logistics aims to make environmental friendly decisions throughout a product lifecycle. Therefore for the success of green logistics, it is critical to have real time tracking capability on the product throughout the product lifecycle and smart solution service architecture. In this chapter, we introduce an RFID based green logistics solution and service.

  16. Measuring efficiency in logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Milovan Andrejić

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic market and environmental changes greatly affect operating of logistics systems. Logistics systems have to realize their activities and processes in an efficient way. The main objective of this paper is to analyze different aspects of efficiency measurement in logistics and to propose appropriate models of measurement. Measuring efficiency in logistics is a complex process that requires consideration of all subsystems, processes and activities as well as the impact of various financial, operational, environmental, quality and other factors. The proposed models have a basis in the Data Envelopment Analysis method. They could help managers in decision making and corrective actions processes. The tests and results of the model show the importance of input and output variables selection.

  17. Problem gambling among international and domestic university students in Australia: who is at risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Susan M; Thomas, Anna C; Kalé, Sudhir; Spence, Mark; Zlatevska, Natalina; Staiger, Petra K; Graffam, Joseph; Kyrios, Michael

    2013-06-01

    Young people are a high risk group for gambling problems and university (college) students fall into that category. Given the high accessibility of gambling in Australia and its association with entertainment, students from overseas countries, particularly those where gambling is restricted or illegal, may be particularly vulnerable. This study examines problem gambling and its correlates among international and domestic university students using a sample of 836 domestic students (286 males; 546 females); and 764 international students (369 males; 396 females) at three Australian universities. Our findings indicate that although most students gamble infrequently, around 5 % of students are problem gamblers, a proportion higher than that in the general adult population. Popular gambling choices include games known to be associated with risk (cards, horse races, sports betting, casino games, and gaming machines) as well as lotto/scratch tickets. Males are more likely to be problem gamblers than females, and almost 10 % of male international students could be classified as problem gamblers. Hierarchical regression analysis showed that male gender, international student status, financial stress, negative affect and frequency of gambling on sports, horses/dogs, table games, casino gaming machines, internet casino games and bingo all significantly predicted problem gambling. Results from this study could inform gambling-education programs in universities as they indicate which groups are more vulnerable and specify which games pose more risk of problem gambling.

  18. Alcohol's Collateral Damage: Childhood Exposure to Problem Drinkers and Subsequent Adult Mortality Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Richard G; Lawrence, Elizabeth M; Montez, Jennifer Karas

    2016-12-07

    The importance of childhood circumstances, broadly defined, for shaping adult health and longevity is well-established. But the significance of one of the most prevalent childhood adversities-exposure to problem drinkers-has been understudied from a sociological perspective and remains poorly understood. We address this gap by drawing on cumulative inequality theory, using data from the 1988-2011 National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files, and estimating Cox proportional hazards models to examine the relationship between exposure to problem drinkers in childhood and adult mortality risk. Childhood exposure to problem drinkers is common (nearly 1 in 5 individuals were exposed) and elevates adult overall and cause-specific mortality risk. Compared to individuals who had not lived with a problem drinker during childhood, those who had done so suffered 17 percent higher risk of death (prisk. Favorable socioeconomic status in adulthood does not ameliorate the consequences of childhood exposure to problem drinkers. The primary intervening mechanisms are risky behaviors, including adult drinking and smoking. The findings-which reveal that the influence of problem drinking is far-reaching and long-term-should inform policies to improve childhood circumstances, reduce detrimental effects of problem drinking, and increase life expectancy.

  19. Conference Logistics Management 2013

    CERN Document Server

    Haasis, Hans-Dietrich; Kopfer, Herbert; Kotzab, Herbert; Schönberger, Jörn

    2015-01-01

    This contributed volume contains the collected research papers presented at the Logistik-Management-Konferenz 2013 organized by the VHB Wissenschaftliche Kommission Logistik, held in Bremen 2013. The papers reflect the current state-of-the-art in logistics and supply chain management, focusing on environmental sustainability in logistics and supply chain network dynamics and control. The target audience primarily comprises research experts in the field as well as practitioners but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.

  20. Understanding logistic regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Sperandei, Sandro

    2014-01-01

    Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using ex...

  1. Predicting risk for portal vein thrombosis in acute pancreatitis patients: A comparison of radical basis function artificial neural network and logistic regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fei, Yang; Hu, Jian; Gao, Kun; Tu, Jianfeng; Li, Wei-Qin; Wang, Wei

    2017-06-01

    To construct a radical basis function (RBF) artificial neural networks (ANNs) model to predict the incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP)-induced portal vein thrombosis. The analysis included 353 patients with AP who had admitted between January 2011 and December 2015. RBF ANNs model and logistic regression model were constructed based on eleven factors relevant to AP respectively. Statistical indexes were used to evaluate the value of the prediction in two models. The predict sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy by RBF ANNs model for PVT were 73.3%, 91.4%, 68.8%, 93.0% and 87.7%, respectively. There were significant differences between the RBF ANNs and logistic regression models in these parameters (Plogistic regression model. D-dimer, AMY, Hct and PT were important prediction factors of approval for AP-induced PVT. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. END-OF-USE PRODUCTS IN REVERSE LOGISTICS

    OpenAIRE

    Marta Starostka-Patyk

    2007-01-01

    Reverse logistics is a very useful tool for enterprises which have to deal with end-of-use products. Forward logistics is not able to manage them, because they show up on the beginning of reverse supply chain. That is the reason for growing importance of reverse flows. Reverse logistics is quite new logistics system. This paper presents the idea of reverse logistics and end-of-use products problems.

  3. Risk factors that predicted problem drinking in Danish men at age thirty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knop, Joachim; Penick, Elizabeth C; Jensen, Per

    2003-01-01

    records and a series of structured interviews and psychometric tests at ages 19-20 and 30 years. The present analysis focuses on the degree to which premorbid differences between the high- and low-risk groups later predicted lifetime drinking problems at age 30 (n = 241). RESULTS: As expected lifetime...... alcohol abuse/dependence by age 30 was reported significantly more often in the high-risk group. Of the 394 premorbid variables tested, 68 were found to distinguish the high- from the low-risk group before any subjects had developed a drinking problem. Of these 68 variables, 28 (41%) were also associated...... with DSM-III-R alcohol abuse/dependence at age 30. These 28 putative markers were reduced to 12 that were entered into a multiple regression analysis to search for the most powerful unique predictors of alcoholism. Four of the 28 putative markers were independently associated with problem drinking at age...

  4. Mobile Robots for Hospital Logistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Özkil, Ali Gürcan

    services to maintain the quality of healthcare provided. Logistics is the most resource demanding service in a hospital. The scale of the transportation tasks is huge and the material flow in a hospital is comparable to that of a factory. We believe that these transportation tasks, to a great extent, can...... be and will be automated using mobile robots. This talk consequently addresses the key technical issues of implementing service robots in hospitals. In simple terms, a robotic system for automating hospital logistics has to be reliable, adaptable and scalable. Robots have to be semi-autonomous, and should reliably...... navigate in large and dynamic environments in the hospital. The complexity of the problem has to be manageable, and the solutions have to be flexible, so that the system can be applicable in real world settings. This talk summarizes the efforts to address these issues. Upon the analysis...

  5. The Problems of the Defining the Risk: The Case of Mountaineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviane Seigneur

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A central assumption in sociology is that the view on the risk is essentially a construction rather than a strictly objective perspective. However, this approach has a tendency to forget objective knowledge and tangible facts. Our research on risks in high mountains compares the available information on risks (scientific literature, safety information, media coverage and political discourse with our empiric observations. Our work shows that there are differences caused by lack of fundamental reflection on the definition of the risk as a social construction. We propose to reconsider the definition of the risk with concepts closely connected to risk such as: uncertainty, emotion, phobia and danger, and to point out problems of confusion in several works of authors (e.g. those dealing with sensational activity, such as bungee jumping, as if it was dangerous. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0601148

  6. Comparative study of suicide risk in depressive disorder patients with and without problem drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Toshihiko; Azekawa, Takaharu; Uchikado, Hirotake; Ozaki, Shigeru; Hasegawa, Naomi; Takekawa, Yoshikazu; Matsushita, Sachio

    2011-08-01

    The present study sought to determine whether the co-occurrence of problem drinking heightens suicide risk in individuals with depression in Japan, using a sample of 784 outpatients (287 men and 497 women) with depressive disorder. Female subjects with at least a moderate problem drinking showed significantly more severe depression and suicidality than those without, but no such difference was identified in men. © 2011 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2011 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

  7. Family Resources and Effects on Child Behavior Problem Interventions: A Cumulative Risk Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tømmerås, Truls; Kjøbli, John

    2017-01-01

    Family resources have been associated with health care inequality in general and with social gradients in treatment outcomes for children with behavior problems. However, there is limited evidence concerning cumulative risk-the accumulation of social and economic disadvantages in a family-and whether cumulative risk moderates the outcomes of evidence-based parent training interventions. We used data from two randomized controlled trials evaluating high-intensity ( n  = 137) and low-intensity ( n  = 216) versions of Parent Management Training-Oregon (PMTO) with a 50:50 allocation between participants receiving PMTO interventions or regular care. A nine-item family cumulative risk index tapping socioeconomic resources and parental health was constructed to assess the family's exposure to risk. Autoregressive structured equation models (SEM) were run to investigate whether cumulative risk moderated child behaviors at post-treatment and follow-up (6 months). Our results showed opposite social gradients for the treatment conditions: the children exposed to cumulative risk in a pooled sample of both PMTO groups displayed lower levels of behavior problems, whereas children with identical risk exposures who received regular care experienced more problems. Furthermore, our results indicated that the social gradients differed between PMTO interventions: children exposed to cumulative risk in the low-intensity (five sessions) Brief Parent Training fared equally well as their high-resource counterparts, whereas children exposed to cumulative risk in the high-intensity PMTO (12 sessions) experienced vastly better treatment effects. Providing evidence-based parent training seem to be an effective way to counteract health care inequality, and the more intensive PMTO treatment seemed to be a particularly effective way to help families with cumulative risk.

  8. Emotional and behavioural problems in childhood and distress in adult life: risk and protective factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, Ann; Flouri, Eirini; Ten Brinke, JoAnn

    2002-08-01

    To assess the relationship between risk and protective factors and the continuity of psychological problems from age 7 to age 33. Data on 5,591 cohort members of the National Child Development Study were used to track continuity and discontinuity between internalizing and externalizing problems at age 7, as assessed by the Rutter 'A' Health and Behaviour Checklist, and psychological distress at age 33, as assessed by the Malaise Inventory, controlling for risk and protective groupings present at age 7. There was no association between malaise in adulthood and internalizing problems in childhood. However, people who had externalizing problems in childhood were nearly twice as likely as those without such problems to have high Malaise scores in adulthood. A grouping of risk factors (police/probation experience by family, agency referral for difficulties in school, social services involvement, domestic tension) did not predict malaise in adulthood. Also a grouping of protective factors (outings with mother, father reads to child, good creative skills, good numeric skills) predicted that women were less likely to have high Malaise scores in adult life. Protective factors in childhood were strongly associated with lower Malaise scores in adulthood. Research on factors associated with discontinuity of psychological problems may prove fruitful.

  9. Instant ticket purchasing by Ontario baby boomers: increasing risk for problem gamblers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papoff, Katharine M; Norris, Joan E

    2009-06-01

    Instant ticket purchase gambling (ITPG) is pervasive in Ontario and has features that mimic slot machine play. Previous researchers have reported that ITPG is one preferred activity for at-risk/problem gamblers. In the general Canadian population, rate of participation in ITPG is second only to lottery ticket gambling. Both are particularly favored by youth and seniors. The next cohort of seniors will be Canada's baby boomers, one-third of whom live in Ontario. Secondary analysis of Statistics Canada data revealed that adults in this cohort who buy instant gambling tickets (N = 1781) are significantly different from the complete group of their age peers (N = 4266) in number of activities pursued and frequency of involvement. At-risk/problem gambling prevalence was 10.2% amongst Ontario baby boomers who participate in instant ticket gambling, significantly higher than the 6.7% found amongst the total group of baby boom gamblers. For those who reported experiencing one or more of the Canadian Problem Gambling Index indicators for problem gambling (N = 237), 73% were buying instant tickets. Future research should consider cohort effects and explore combinations of preferred gambling activities that may increase risk for problem gambling. Social policy recommendations include the use of all ITPG venues as key locations for promoting awareness of problem gambling treatment services.

  10. PROVIDING AGRICULTURAL RISKS IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA: TRENDS, PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulia CAPRIAN

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the author presents results of scientific researches on the problems which farmers of the Republic of Moldova are facing in the field of risk management and insurance. In conclusion, the author formulates recommendations on farm managers’ opportunities to benefit from subsidized insurance, but also some recommendations resulting from the research of the experience of other countries from the European Union aimed to ensure the entrepreneurial risks in agricultural entities.

  11. [nursing Diagnoses And Most Common Collaboration Problems In High-risk Pregnancy].

    OpenAIRE

    Gouveia, Helga Geremias; Lopes, Maria Helena Baena de Moraes

    2015-01-01

    This study identified the demographic profile, obstetric and clinical diagnoses, nursing diagnosis and most common collaboration problem among pregnant women subject to high-risk at a hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. Data were collected by means of a form based on Gordon's Functional Health Patterns. Nursing diagnoses were determined on the basis of the NANDA (North American Nursing Diagnosis Association) taxonomy. The nursing diagnoses found in 50% or more of the pregnant women were: risk for ...

  12. Binge drinking: a pattern associated with a risk of problems of alcohol use among university students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Bedendo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to evaluate problems associated with alcohol use among university students who reported binge drinking in comparison to students who consumed alcohol without binging. Method: a cross-sectional study among university students (N=2,408 who accessed the website about alcohol use. Logistic and linear regression models were included in the statistical analyzes. Results: alcohol use in the last three months was reported by 89.2% of university students; 51.6% reported binge drinking. Compared to students who did not binge drink, university students who presented this pattern were more likely to report all evaluated problems, among them: black out (aOR: 5.4; having academic problems (aOR: 3.4; acting impulsively and having regrets (aOR: 2.9; getting involved in fights (aOR: 2.6; drinking and driving (aOR: 2.6 and accepting a ride with someone who had drunk alcohol (aOR: 1.8. Students who binged also had higher scores on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (b=4.6; p<0.001, more negative consequences (b=1.0; p<0.001 and a reduced perception of the negativity of the consequences (b=-0.5; p<0.01. Conclusion: binge drinking was associated with an increase in the chances of manifesting problems related to alcohol use. The conclusions of this study cannot be generalized for all of the Brazilian population.

  13. Explicit solutions to correlation matrix completion problems, with an application to risk management and insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgescu, Dan I; Higham, Nicholas J; Peters, Gareth W

    2018-03-01

    We derive explicit solutions to the problem of completing a partially specified correlation matrix. Our results apply to several block structures for the unspecified entries that arise in insurance and risk management, where an insurance company with many lines of business is required to satisfy certain capital requirements but may have incomplete knowledge of the underlying correlation matrix. Among the many possible completions, we focus on the one with maximal determinant. This has attractive properties and we argue that it is suitable for use in the insurance application. Our explicit formulae enable easy solution of practical problems and are useful for testing more general algorithms for the maximal determinant correlation matrix completion problem.

  14. Efficiency and Logistics

    CERN Document Server

    Hompel, Michael; Klumpp, Matthias

    2013-01-01

    The „EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr“ was a winner in the Leading Edge Science Cluster competition run by the German federal Ministry of Education and Research. The mission and aim of the „EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr“ is to facilitate tomorrow’s individuality – in the sense of individual goods supply, mobility, and production – using 75 percent of today’s resources. Efficiency – both in economical and ecological terms – is enabled by state-of-the-art and innovative logistical solutions including transportation, production and intralogistics. These proceedings “Efficiency and Logistics” give first answers from 27 research projects as an insight into the current state of research of Europe’s leading research and development cluster in logistics and as a contribution to the discussion on how logistics as a science can help to cope with foreseeable resource shortage and sustainability as global challenges.

  15. Logistics innovation development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedrosa, Alex; Blazevic, Vera; Jasmand, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    to investigate the role of boundary-spanning employees in deepening and broadening customer knowledge while developing logistics service innovations. Findings The results show that boundary-spanning employees’ engage sequentially in deepening and broadening customer knowledge throughout the logistics innovation...... development process. In particular it shows that deepening customer knowledge tends to occur in one-to-one interactions. When boundary-spanning employees engage in broadening customer knowledge, they develop a rich understanding of current customer. Research limitations/implications (if applicable) In general......Purpose This paper aims to investigate the microfoundations—boundary-spanning employees activities and behaviors—of deepening and broadening customer knowledge during logistics innovation development. Design/methodology/approach A multiple case study approach (six case studies) was adopted...

  16. Applied simulation and optimization : in logistics, industrial and aeronautical practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mujica Mota, Miguel; De la Mota, Idalia Flores; Guimarans Serrano, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Presenting techniques, case-studies and methodologies that combine the use of simulation approaches with optimization techniques for facing problems in manufacturing, logistics, or aeronautical problems, this book provides solutions to common industrial problems in several fields, which range from

  17. Understanding logistic regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperandei, Sandro

    2014-01-01

    Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using examples to make it as simple as possible. After definition of the technique, the basic interpretation of the results is highlighted and then some special issues are discussed.

  18. Logistics of LEP installation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genier, C.; Capper, S.

    1988-01-01

    The size of the LEP project, coupled with the tight construction schedules, calls for organized planning, logistics, monitoring and control. This is being carried out at present using tools such as ORACLE the Relational Database Management System, running on a VAX cluster for data storage and transfer, micro-computers for on-site follow-up, and PC's running Professional ORACLE, DOS and XENIX linked to a communications network to receive data feedback concerning transport and handling means. Following over 2 years of installations, this paper presents the methods used for the logistics of installation and their results

  19. Rise of humanitarian logistics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Maspero, EL

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available but was described as fairly routine for a company of Walmart’s size with 117 distribution centres spread around the country. The nonchalant response by Rollin Ford, (Walmart’s executive vice president of logistics and supply chain) says it all, “that’s what we do...%20and%20challenges%22 [3] Boorstin, J. 2005. New lessons to learn. Fortune. 3 October. [4] Davidson, A.L. 2006. Key Performance Indicators in Humanitarian Logistics. MLOG Thesis, 2006. Viewed 24 October 2006. [5] http...

  20. Decision making under ambiguity but not under risk is related to problem gambling severity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brevers, Damien; Cleeremans, Axel; Goudriaan, Anna E.; Bechara, Antoine; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between problem gambling severity and decision-making situations that vary in two degrees of uncertainty (probability of outcome is known: decision-making under risk; probability of outcome is unknown: decision-making under ambiguity). For

  1. Social Information Processing in Preschool Children: Relations to Sociodemographic Risk and Problem Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziv, Yair; Sorongon, Alberto

    2011-01-01

    Using a multicomponent, process-oriented approach, the links between social information processing during the preschool years and (a) sociodemographic risk and (b) behavior problems in preschool were examined in a community sample of 196 children. Findings provided support for our initial hypotheses that aspects of social information processing in…

  2. Negative Peer Influence in Special Needs Classes--A Risk for Students with Problem Behaviour?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Christoph Michael

    2010-01-01

    Children and adolescents with aggressive and delinquent behaviours are often educated in special needs classes with others who exhibit the same kind of challenging behaviour. Beside the opportunities provided by this approach there are also risks, as several studies point to the problem of negative peer influence among this student population.…

  3. Problem-Based Teaching in International Management: A Political/Economic Risk Assessment Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Paula S.; White, Marion M.; Zisk, Daniel S.; Cavazos, David E.

    2013-01-01

    This article draws from the current literature to examine problem-based learning (PBL) as a management education tool, and provides an example of how to incorporate PBL into an undergraduate international management course. Also included are an explanation of, and specific guidelines for, a PBL exercise focused on the analysis of "country risk"…

  4. Taking Stock of Risk Factors for Child/Youth Externalizing Behavior Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hann, Della M., Ed.

    Research on child and adolescent conduct problems has proliferated over the past 15 years, resulting in an extensive array of risk factors, processes, and targets for intervention. To capitalize fully on this extensive research base and contribute effectively to public mental health, the field now needs to take stock of what is known about child…

  5. Family factors and life events as risk factors for behavioural and emotional problems in children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harland, P.; Reijneveld, S.A.; Brugman, E.; Verloove-Vanhorick, S.P.; Verhulst, F.C.

    2002-01-01

    Abstract The aim of this study was to identify groups of children at increased risk of behavioural or emotional problems on the basis of socio-demographic characteristics, family characteristics, and recent life events with a focus on unemployment and divorce or separation. We obtained data on the

  6. Why is risk communication hardly applied in Japan? Psychological problem of scientific experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosugi, Motoko; Tsuchiya, Tomoko; Taniguchi, Taketoshi

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the problems that impair to communicate about technological risks with the public in Japan, especially focusing on views of experts as a supplier of risk information. In this study, we also clarified through the questionnaire surveys that there were significant differences of risk perception and of information environment about science and technology between the public and scientific experts, as many previous studies showed. And most important fact is that experts perceive the difference in risk perception between the public and experts larger than the public does. We conclude that this experts' cognition impedes to take a first step toward communicating with the public about technological risks. (author)

  7. Relationship Between Green Logistics Tendency and Logistics Performance: A Comparative Case Study on Logistics Service Providers

    OpenAIRE

    Ayşenur DOĞRU; Cemile SOLAK FIŞKIN

    2016-01-01

    Increasing concerns related to environmental side effects of the logistics services and competition between the logistics service providers are two pressuring factors on logistics service providers. This study seeks to explore the relation between green logistics tendency and logistic performance from the perspective of logistics service providers. In order to reach this aim, two logistics service providers are investigated by comparative case study method. Findings showed the effects of g...

  8. Cooperation between partners in logistics outsourcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreja KRIŽMAN

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to present the research results from a study of impact of cooperation between logistics service providers (LSP and their customers on logistics outsourcing performance conducted in the Slovenian market. On the basis of the existing literature and some new argumentations, derived from in-depth interviews with logistics experts of providers and customers, the measurement and structural models were empirically analyzed. Existing measurement scales for the constructs of cooperation, and outsourcing performance were slightly modified for this analysis. Their purification and measurement for validity and reliability were performed. Multivariate statistical methods (EFA, CFA and SEM - Partial Least Squares were utilized and hypotheses were tested. Cooperation between partners has a significant impact on the relationship and reduces problems in logistics performance. Cooperation in the model explain 58.5% of the variance of goal achievement and 36.6% of the variance of goal exceedance logistics of outsourcing performance.

  9. Research on logistics scheduling based on PSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Huifang; Zhou, Linli; Liu, Lei

    2017-08-01

    With the rapid development of e-commerce based on the network, the logistics distribution support of e-commerce is becoming more and more obvious. The optimization of vehicle distribution routing can improve the economic benefit and realize the scientific of logistics [1]. Therefore, the study of logistics distribution vehicle routing optimization problem is not only of great theoretical significance, but also of considerable value of value. Particle swarm optimization algorithm is a kind of evolutionary algorithm, which is based on the random solution and the optimal solution by iteration, and the quality of the solution is evaluated through fitness. In order to obtain a more ideal logistics scheduling scheme, this paper proposes a logistics model based on particle swarm optimization algorithm.

  10. Activities and Education in Logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasmina Pašagić Škrinjar

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Logistic approach to traffic means new business policy,economy and ownership, new internal organization, externaland internal communication, different corporate cultures, humanresources management using scientific methods, trainingand education, changed management type and awarding system,knowledge of information technology, communicationskills, electronic commerce, etc. Education is part of all theseelements. The introduction of logistics in all the business activitieshas been imposed due to the following reasons: because ofthe life-cycle shortening of the product and its delivery, becauseof sudden technological development, because of productionand market globalization, because of the increase in competitiveness.This paper describes first various logistic activities with theindication of practical and scientific approaches. The logisticsapproach in the traffic activities requires upgrading of the professionaland scientific level to a higher one which means additionaltraining and acquiring of new skills as well as new technologiesfor the employees.The basic aim of research was to specifY the basic logisticsactivities and problems in order to indicate the need of differentforms of education. Fast technological and social changes requireconstant improvement and modification of professionalknowledge and acqui1ing of new scientific methods and skills.

  11. Combinatorial Algorithms for Portfolio Optimization Problems - Case of Risk Moderate Investor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juarna, A.

    2017-03-01

    Portfolio optimization problem is a problem of finding optimal combination of n stocks from N ≥ n available stocks that gives maximal aggregate return and minimal aggregate risk. In this paper given N = 43 from the IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange) group of the 45 most-traded stocks, known as the LQ45, with p = 24 data of monthly returns for each stock, spanned over interval 2013-2014. This problem actually is a combinatorial one where its algorithm is constructed based on two considerations: risk moderate type of investor and maximum allowed correlation coefficient between every two eligible stocks. The main outputs resulted from implementation of the algorithms is a multiple curve of three portfolio’s attributes, e.g. the size, the ratio of return to risk, and the percentage of negative correlation coefficient for every two chosen stocks, as function of maximum allowed correlation coefficient between each two stocks. The output curve shows that the portfolio contains three stocks with ratio of return to risk at 14.57 if the maximum allowed correlation coefficient between every two eligible stocks is negative and contains 19 stocks with maximum allowed correlation coefficient 0.17 to get maximum ratio of return to risk at 25.48.

  12. Solving portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots based on conditional-value-at-risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiawan, E. P.; Rosadi, D.

    2017-01-01

    Portfolio selection problems conventionally means ‘minimizing the risk, given the certain level of returns’ from some financial assets. This problem is frequently solved with quadratic or linear programming methods, depending on the risk measure that used in the objective function. However, the solutions obtained by these method are in real numbers, which may give some problem in real application because each asset usually has its minimum transaction lots. In the classical approach considering minimum transaction lots were developed based on linear Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), variance (like Markowitz’s model), and semi-variance as risk measure. In this paper we investigated the portfolio selection methods with minimum transaction lots with conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measure. The mean-CVaR methodology only involves the part of the tail of the distribution that contributed to high losses. This approach looks better when we work with non-symmetric return probability distribution. Solution of this method can be found with Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. We provide real examples using stocks from Indonesia stocks market.

  13. Risk-Controlled Multiobjective Portfolio Selection Problem Using a Principle of Compromise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Hasuike

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a multiobjective portfolio selection problem with most probable random distribution derived from current market data and other random distributions of boom and recession under the risk-controlled parameters determined by an investor. The current market data and information include not only historical data but also interpretations of economists’ oral and linguistic information, and hence, the boom and recession are often caused by these nonnumeric data. Therefore, investors need to consider several situations from most probable condition to boom and recession and to avoid the risk less than the target return in each situation. Furthermore, it is generally difficult to set random distributions of these cases exactly. Therefore, a robust-based approach for portfolio selection problems using the only mean values and variances of securities is proposed as a multiobjective programming problem. In addition, an exact algorithm is developed to obtain an explicit optimal portfolio using a principle of compromise.

  14. Logistics Reduction: RFID Enabled Autonomous Logistics Management (REALM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Logistics Reduction (LR) project Radio-frequency identification (RFID) Enabled Autonomous Logistics Management (REALM) task...

  15. Actual problems of environmental factors risk assessment on human health and ways to improve it

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.A. Rakhmanin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article provides an analysis of global trends and new areas of health risk assessment and analysis methodology caused by exposure to chemicals, environmental pollutants, and the contemporary issues of national assessment methodology. Most details are considered: risk assessment evidence base, modern methods and problems of carcinogenic risk assessment, hygienic regulation based on risk assessment, the economic aspects of the methodology. Particular attention is paid to reasons of recent years perceived gaps in the Russian methodological basis of the best foreign samples. The urgent measures to improve the national risk assessment methodology are proposed, the main of which are: legislative consolidation of the basic concepts of risk assessment, a further update of the methodology and the practice of hygienic regulation on the basis of risk assessment, improving the valuation of damage to human health, the tightening of the requirements to the developed regulatory guidance documents on risk assessment, as well as to the training and retraining of personnel in the risk assessment.

  16. LOGISTICS OF ECOLOGICAL SAMPLING ON LARGE RIVERS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objectives of this document are to provide an overview of the logistical problems associated with the ecological sampling of boatable rivers and to suggest solutions to those problems. It is intended to be used as a resource for individuals preparing to collect biological dat...

  17. The impact of internet gambling on gambling problems: a comparison of moderate-risk and problem Internet and non-Internet gamblers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gainsbury, Sally M; Russell, Alex; Hing, Nerilee; Wood, Robert; Blaszczynski, Alex

    2013-12-01

    Numerous studies have reported higher rates of gambling problems among Internet compared with non-Internet gamblers. However, little research has examined those at risk of developing gambling problems or overall gambling involvement. This study aimed to examine differences between problem and moderate-risk gamblers among Internet and non-Internet gamblers to determine the mechanisms for how Internet gambling may contribute to gambling problems. Australian gamblers (N = 6,682) completed an online survey that included measures of gambling participation, problem gambling severity, and help seeking. Compared with non-Internet gamblers, Internet gamblers were younger, engaged in a greater number of gambling activities, and were more likely to bet on sports. These differences were significantly greater for problem than moderate-risk gamblers. Non-Internet gamblers were more likely to gamble on electronic gaming machines, and a significantly higher proportion of problem gamblers participated in this gambling activity. Non-Internet gamblers were more likely to report health and psychological impacts of problem gambling and having sought help for gambling problems. Internet gamblers who experience gambling-related harms appear to represent a somewhat different group from non-Internet problem and moderate-risk gamblers. This has implications for the development of treatment and prevention programs, which are often based on research that does not cater for differences between subgroups of gamblers. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. Strategies on the Implementation of China's Logistics Information Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yahui; Li, Wei; Guo, Xuwen

    The economic globalization and trend of e-commerce network have determined that the logistics industry will be rapidly developed in the 21st century. In order to achieve the optimal allocation of resources, a worldwide rapid and sound customer service system should be established. The establishment of a corresponding modern logistics system is the inevitable choice of this requirement. It is also the inevitable choice for the development of modern logistics industry in China. The perfect combination of modern logistics and information network can better promote the development of the logistics industry. Through the analysis of Status of Logistics Industry in China, this paper summed up the domestic logistics enterprise logistics information system in the building of some common problems. According to logistics information systems planning methods and principles set out logistics information system to optimize the management model.

  19. Strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers differ on decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorains, Felicity K; Dowling, Nicki A; Enticott, Peter G; Bradshaw, John L; Trueblood, Jennifer S; Stout, Julie C

    2014-07-01

    To analyse problem gamblers' decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity, investigate underlying psychological factors associated with their choice behaviour and examine whether decision-making differed in strategic (e.g., sports betting) and non-strategic (e.g., electronic gaming machine) problem gamblers. Cross-sectional study. Out-patient treatment centres and university testing facilities in Victoria, Australia. Thirty-nine problem gamblers and 41 age, gender and estimated IQ-matched controls. Decision-making tasks included the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and a loss aversion task. The Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model was used to provide an explanation of cognitive, motivational and response style factors involved in IGT performance. Overall, problem gamblers performed more poorly than controls on both the IGT (P = 0.04) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.01), and their IGT decisions were associated with heightened attention to gains (P = 0.003) and less consistency (P = 0.002). Strategic problem gamblers did not differ from matched controls on either decision-making task, but non-strategic problem gamblers performed worse on both the IGT (P = 0.006) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.02). Furthermore, we found differences in the PVL model parameters underlying strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers' choices on the IGT. Problem gamblers demonstrated poor decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity. Strategic (e.g. sports betting, poker) and non-strategic (e.g. electronic gaming machines) problem gamblers differed in decision-making and the underlying psychological processes associated with their decisions. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  20. Bayesian logistic regression analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

  1. Logistics. Crucial link

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, M.

    1996-01-01

    The article relates to offshore cost reduction in the UK and Norwegian sectors. Improvements within logistics and industrial co-operation are discussed being inspired by the joint government and industry NORSOK programme and the similar UK CRINE programme. Examples on cost reduction in various projects are given. 1 fig

  2. and Multinomial Logistic Regression

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work presented the results of an experimental comparison of two models: Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for classifying students based on their academic performance. The predictive accuracy for each model was measured by their average Classification Correct Rate (CCR).

  3. Logistics innovation development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedrosa, Alex; Blazevic, Vera; Jasmand, Claudia

    2015-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the microfoundations of customer knowledge acquisition during logistics innovation development. Specifically, the authors explore the activities and behaviors of employees with customer contact (i.e. boundary-spanning employees (BSEs)) to deepen...

  4. Logistics Services Communication

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    Members of the personnel are invited to take note that only parcels corresponding to official orders or contracts will be handled at CERN. Individuals are not authorisedto have private merchandise delivered to them at CERN and private deliveries will not be accepted by the Goods Reception services. Thank you for your understanding. Logistics Services - FI Department - 79947

  5. Logistics Services Communication

    CERN Document Server

    2006-01-01

    Members of the personnel are invited to take note that only parcels corresponding to official orders or contracts will be handled at CERN. Individuals are not authorised to have private merchandise delivered to them at CERN and private deliveries will not be accepted by the Goods Reception services. Thank you for your understanding. Logistics Services - FI Department - 79947

  6. Logistics Takes Command

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marullo, F.

    2015-01-01

    The term "logistics" derives from the Greek logizomai standing for the art of reckoning, organising, planning. Through time it achieved a strict military connotation, dealing with the composition, lodging and movements of troops, the arrangement of provisions in hostile territories, the

  7. Pilot study risk assessment for selected problems at three US Department of Energy Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Pardi, R.; Rowe, M.D.; Sun, C.; Anspaugh, L.R.; Bogen, K.T.; Daniels, J.I.

    1994-01-01

    Objective and realistic human health risk assessments were performed for environmental problems at the Savannah River Site (SRS), the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP), and the Nevada Test Site (NTS). At the SRS, cancer mortality risks were analyzed for projected public exposure to 3 H and 137 Cs released into the Savannah River. For annual human exposures to SRS tritium in Savannah River water, calculated incremental individual lifetime risks in two human receptor populations were small (8x10 -7 ; upper 95 percentile point of the distribution). The 95th percentile point of the distribution for incremental individual lifetime risks from one year's exposure to 137 Cs is less than 10 -8 . No deaths are expected in either populations as a result of exposures to tritium or cesium released to the Savannah River. Routine releases of radon and radon progeny from the K-65 silos at FEMP resulted in individual lifetime risks greater than 1x10 -4 only for onsite workers and fenceline residents. Assessment of risks from exposure to uranium in ground water released by the FEMP predicted no toxic effects for human receptors. All estimated cancer risks were small. The largest predicted individual lifetime risk was for a well close to the facility. For various above-ground shot sites at the NTS, highest predicted lifetime cancer risks are for a resident farmer. At 50,000 and 100,000 y in the future, the predicted cancer risks are all below 10 -6 . In the assessment of exposure to radionuclides in ground water at the NTS, for an individual onsite near the site boundary, the geometric mean of the maximum potential excess lifetime risk of cancer mortality for an individual is 7x10 -3 . For an individual using water offsite, the geometric mean of the maximum potential excess lifetime risk of cancer mortality is 7x10 -7 . 40 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

  8. Helping nursing homes "at risk" for quality problems: a statewide evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rantz, Marilyn J; Cheshire, Debra; Flesner, Marcia; Petroski, Gregory F; Hicks, Lanis; Alexander, Greg; Aud, Myra A; Siem, Carol; Nguyen, Katy; Boland, Clara; Thomas, Sharon

    2009-01-01

    The Quality Improvement Program for Missouri (QIPMO), a state school of nursing project to improve quality of care and resident outcomes in nursing homes, has a special focus to help nursing homes identified as "at risk" for quality concerns. In fiscal year 2006, 92 of 492 Medicaid-certified facilities were identified as "at risk" using quality indicators (QIs) derived from Minimum Data Set (MDS) data. Sixty of the 92 facilities accepted offered on-site clinical consultations by gerontological expert nurses with graduate nursing education. Content of consultations include quality improvement, MDS, care planning, evidence-based practice, and effective teamwork. The 60 "at-risk" facilities improved scores 4%-41% for 5 QIs: pressure ulcers (overall and high risk), weight loss, bedfast residents, and falls; other facilities in the state did not. Estimated cost savings (based on prior cost research) for 444 residents who avoided developing these clinical problems in participating "at-risk" facilities was more than $1.5 million for fiscal year 2006. These are similar to estimated savings of $1.6 million for fiscal year 2005 when 439 residents in "at-risk" facilities avoided clinical problems. Estimated savings exceed the total program cost by more than $1 million annually. QI improvements demonstrate the clinical effectiveness of on-site clinical consultation by gerontological expert nurses with graduate nursing education.

  9. Space Station fluid management logistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominick, Sam M.

    1990-01-01

    Viewgraphs and discussion on space station fluid management logistics are presented. Topics covered include: fluid management logistics - issues for Space Station Freedom evolution; current fluid logistics approach; evolution of Space Station Freedom fluid resupply; launch vehicle evolution; ELV logistics system approach; logistics carrier configuration; expendable fluid/propellant carrier description; fluid carrier design concept; logistics carrier orbital operations; carrier operations at space station; summary/status of orbital fluid transfer techniques; Soviet progress tanker system; and Soviet propellant resupply system observations.

  10. Logistics in Namibia: Issues and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher J. Savage

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Logistics is perceived to be important for Namibia’s growth and development, but this may be a matter of conjecture as there is a dearth of documented information about the industry in Namibia. Furthermore, it is uncertain what the understanding of logistics is for key stakeholders in the country. This article reports on a project; the objectives were to address some of these issues and to lay the foundation for a more thorough investigation in the future. The findings of the initial project were disseminated in 2012 by: a conference paper showing the challenges and opportunities facing logistics in Namibia in 2012; a report; and through a Logistics and Transport Workshop held in Walvis Bay, Namibia in September 2012. These reports, additional interviews and subsequent discussions highlighted some potential opportunities and problems. This article summarises the project to date, showing the methodology and findings as updated by subsequent feedback and further interviews. The findings from key stakeholders of the logistics industry in Namibia include: universal agreement on the importance of logistics to Namibia; the variety in the understanding of the term logistics; the strength of the continuing influence of South Africa as the dominant economic power in southern Africa; and contrasting views on the main factors limiting logistics development, including infrastructure, attitude, government, customs, training, railways, corruption and driver shortage.

  11. Advanced Nuclear Measurements - Sensitivity Analysis Emerging Safeguards, Problems and Proliferation Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.

    1999-01-01

    During the past year this component of the Advanced Nuclear Measurements LDRD-DR has focused on emerging safeguards problems and proliferation risk by investigating problems in two domains. The first is related to the analysis, quantification, and characterization of existing inventories of fissile materials, in particular, the minor actinides (MA) formed in the commercial fuel cycle. Understanding material forms and quantities helps identify and define future measurement problems, instrument requirements, and assists in prioritizing safeguards technology development. The second problem (dissertation research) has focused on the development of a theoretical foundation for sensor array anomaly detection. Remote and unattended monitoring or verification of safeguards activities is becoming a necessity due to domestic and international budgetary constraints. However, the ability to assess the trustworthiness of a sensor array has not been investigated. This research is developing an anomaly detection methodology to assess the sensor array

  12. A framework for evaluating innovative statistical and risk assessment tools to solve environment restoration problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassig, N.L.; Gilbert, R.O.; Pulsipher, B.A.

    1991-09-01

    Environmental restoration activities at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site face complex issues due to history of varied past contaminant disposal practices. Data collection and analysis required for site characterization, pathway modeling, and remediation selection decisions must deal with inherent uncertainties and unique problems associated with the restoration. A framework for working through the statistical aspects of the site characterization and remediation selection problems is needed. This framework would facilitate the selection of appropriate statistical tools for solving unique aspects of the environmental restoration problem. This paper presents a framework for selecting appropriate statistical and risk assessment methods. The following points will be made: (1) pathway modelers and risk assessors often recognize that ''some type'' of statistical methods are required but don't work with statisticians on tools development in the early planning phases of the project; (2) statistical tools selection and development are problem-specific and often site-specific, further indicating a need for up-front involvement of statisticians; and (3) the right tool, applied in the right way can minimize sampling costs, get as much information as possible out of the data that does exist, provide consistency and defensibility for the results, and given structure and quantitative measures to decision risks and uncertainties

  13. Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

    2016-12-15

    With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM³ ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs.

  14. Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA for Environmental Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Li

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM3 ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs.

  15. Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

    2016-01-01

    With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM3 ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs. PMID:27983713

  16. Risk factors in equine transport-related health problems: A survey of the Australian equine industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padalino, B; Raidal, S L; Hall, E; Knight, P; Celi, P; Jeffcott, L; Muscatello, G

    2017-07-01

    Transportation can affect equine health and is a potential source of economic loss to the industry. To identify journey (duration, vehicle, commercial or noncommercial) and horse (sex, age, breed, use, amateur or professional status) characteristics associated with the development of transport-related health problems in horses. Cross-sectional online survey. An online survey was conducted targeting amateur and professional participants in the Australian equine industry; eligible respondents were required to organise horse movements at least monthly. Respondents provided details of the last case of a transport-related health problem that had affected their horse(s). Associations between type of health problem, journey and horse characteristics were examined with multivariable multinomial regression analysis. Based on 214 responses, health problems were classified as injuries, muscular problems, heat stroke, gastrointestinal and respiratory problems, and death or euthanasia. Respiratory problems were reported most frequently (33.7%), followed by gastrointestinal problems (23.8%) and traumatic injuries (16.3%). The type of health problem was associated with journey duration (Pproblems, and death or euthanasia) were more likely to occur on long journeys. Using Standardbreds as the reference group, Thoroughbreds, Arabians and Warmbloods were more likely to experience a severe illness than an injury. Self-selected participation in the study and the self-reported nature of transport-related problems. Horses undertaking journeys of longer than 24 h are at greater risk for the development of severe disease or death. Further studies on long-haul transportation effects are required to safeguard the welfare of horses moved over long distances. © 2016 EVJ Ltd.

  17. Risk in Nuclear Industry. Liability for Nuclear Damage. Status of the Problem in the Russian Federation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovalevich, Oleg M.; Gavrilov, Sergey D.; Voronov, Dmitry B.

    2001-01-01

    Russia is one of a few nuclear power states obtaining the whole number of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) components - from mining of uranium and on-site electricity production, from NPP spent nuclear fuel processing and extracted fissile materials and radionuclides, which are available in industry, in medicine and in other relevant areas, to radioactive waste processing and disposal. For this reason it is very important to solve the problem of nuclear fuel cycle safety as it is a single system task with an adequate approach for all cycle components. The problem is that NFC facilities are technologically various and refer to different industries (mining, machinery engineering, power engineering, chemistry, etc.). Besides, the above facilities need the development of various scientific bases. The most NFC facilities is directly connected with peaceful use of nuclear energy and with military nuclear industry, as the defense orders stimulated the development of NFC. The specific attention to safety problems at the beginning of nuclear complex foundation adversely affected the state attitude towards the risk in nuclear industry, it has left the traces at present. In our paper we touch upon the problems of risk and the liability for nuclear damage for the third persons. The problems of nuclear damage compensation for nuclear facilities personnel and for the owners (operating organizations) are beyond our subject

  18. Behavioral problems in people with intellectual disability: Basic facts, incidence and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buha Nataša

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In people with intellectual disabilities, behavioral problems result from the interaction of multiple risk factors of different origin, which undoubtedly indicates the importance of knowing their individual characteristics and life circumstances. Incidence, specific forms and topography of behavioral problems depend on different factors, both socio-demographic and inherent ones. Behavioral problems significantly impede acquiring new adaptive skills and have a negative influence on the interaction with the environment. Emotional and behavioral problems are a significant source of stress in children with intellectual disability, as well as their parents and professional staff. These difficulties, especially aggression and disruptiveness, have a big influence on the selection of education model, i.e. on how much the child will be involved in the educational process and the decision whether or not a person will be institutionalized. Better understanding of behavioral problems in people with intellectual disability is the basis of eliminating or reducing risk factors, as well as creating a comprehensive treatment model.

  19. The effects of anticipated regret on risk preferences of social and problem gamblers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Tochkov

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Anticipated regret is an important determinant in risky decision making, however only a few studies have explored its role in problem gambling. This study tested for differences in the anticipation of regret among social and problem gamblers and examined how these differences affect risk preferences in a gambling task. The extent of problem gambling was assessed using the South Oaks Gambling Screen and participants were randomly assigned to one of two conditions. In the risky feedback condition, the feeling of regret was avoided by choosing the risky gamble, whereas in the safe feedback condition the safe gamble was the regret-minimizing option. Problem gambling was associated with the choice of the risky gamble in both conditions indicating less sensitivity to anticipated regret. It was also associated with risk seeking across feedback conditions when the stakes of winning and loosing were higher. These findings suggest that less regret or the poor anticipation of regret might contribute to excessive gambling and thus need to be addressed in cognitive treatments of problem gambling.

  20. [Appliancation of logistics in resources management of medical asset].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miroshnichenko, Iu V; Goriachev, A B; Bunin, S A

    2011-06-01

    The usage of basic regulations of logistics in practical activity for providing joints and military units with medical asset is theoretically justified. The role of logistics in organizing, building and functioning of military (armed forces) medical supply system is found out. The methods of solving urgent problems of improvement the resources management of medical asset on the basis of logistics are presented.

  1. Optimalization of logistic costs by the controlling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarína Teplická

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Article deals with logistic cost problems, their following, reporting and evaluation in the firm. It gives basic information about possible access of the effective decreasing of the logistic cost by the way of controlling access, or evaluation of Balance Score Card. It indicates short algorithm of logistic costs reporting by the way of controlling.

  2. Optimalization of logistic costs by the controlling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Katarína Teplická

    2007-01-01

    Article deals with logistic cost problems, their following, reporting and evaluation in the firm. It gives basic information about possible access of the effective decreasing of the logistic cost by the way of controlling access, or evaluation of Balance Score Card. It indicates short algorithm of logistic costs reporting by the way of controlling.

  3. Waste acceptance and logistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, James H.

    1992-01-01

    There are three major components which are normally highlighted when the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program is discussed - the repository, the monitored retrievable storage facility, and the transportation system. These are clearly the major physical system elements and they receive the greatest external attention. However, there will not be a successful, operative waste management system without fully operational waste acceptance plans and logistics arrangements. This paper will discuss the importance of developing, on a parallel basis to the normally considered waste management system elements, the waste acceptance and logistics arrangements to enable the timely transfer of spent nuclear fuel from more than one hundred and twenty waste generators to the Federal government. The paper will also describe the specific activities the Program has underway to make the necessary arrangements. (author)

  4. The communication of the risk of coastal erosion in Portugal: a global problem, a local trouble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo BASTO

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the past two decades a set of instruments has been devised by the Portuguese authorities to handle the issue of coastal erosion. We argue that this legal apparatus not only lacks the internal integration necessary for its effectiveness, but it also fails to recognise the ways in which the problem materialises in the everyday life of coastal areas. Through a case study in the village of Furadouro in Western Portugal, we demonstrate how this top-down implementation of policies does not promote a true communication of risks, in the sense that the problem of coastal erosion is not “put in common” across levels of governance.

  5. Limitations and problems in deriving risk estimates for low-level radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1981-01-01

    Some of the problems in determining the cancer risk of low-level radiation from studies of exposed groups are reviewed and applied to the study of Hanford workers by Mancuso, Stewart, and Kneale. Problems considered are statistical limitations, variation of cancer rates with geography and race, the ''healthy worker effect,'' calendar year and age variation of cancer mortality, choosing from long lists, use of proportional mortality rates, cigarette smoking-cancer correlations, use of averages to represent data distributions, ignoring other data, and correlations between radiation exposure and other factors that may cause cancer. The current status of studies of the Hanford workers is reviewed

  6. Humanitarian logistics and sustainability

    CERN Document Server

    Leeuw, Sander; Regattieri, Alberto; Souza, Robert

    2015-01-01

    This contributed volume combines conceptual and strategic research articles dealing with the "why" and "to what end" of sustainable operations in humanitarian logistics, as well as operational research contributions regarding the "how" from the United Nations as well as from researchers and organizations from different countries (Germany, Australia, Singapore, Italy, Denmark, Jordan). The target audience primarily comprises research experts, decision makers  and practitioners in the field, but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.

  7. Knowledge Enabled Logistics (KEL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN...decentralization of work, globalization, telecommuting , emphasis on constant learning, and greater use of teams within the workplace. While these...visible within military Command and Control (C2) operations. The focus of the current report is on C2 within a logistics domain. 2.1

  8. Pilot study risk assessment for selected problems at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Meinhold, A.F.; Baxter, S.L.; Holtzman, S.; Morris, S.C.; Pardi, R.; Rowe, M.D.; Sun, C. (Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)); Anspaugh, L.; Layton, D. (Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States))

    1993-03-01

    Two important environmental problems at the USDOE Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) facility in Fernald, Ohio were studied in this human health risk assessment. The problems studied were radon emissions from the K-65 waste silos, and offsite contamination of ground water with uranium. Waste from the processing of pitchblende ore is stored in the K-65 silos at the FEMP. Radium-226 in the waste decays to radon gas which escapes to the outside atmosphere. The concern is for an increase in lung cancer risk for nearby residents associated with radon exposure. Monitoring data and a gaussian plume transport model were used to develop a source term and predict exposure and risk to fenceline residents, residents within 1 and 5 miles of the silos, and residents of Hamilton and Cincinnati, Ohio. Two release scenarios were studied: the routine release of radon from the silos and an accidental loss of one silo dome integrity. Exposure parameters and risk factors were described as distributions. Risks associated with natural background radon concentrations were also estimated.

  9. Assessing Risks to Wildlife Populations from Multiple Stressors: Overview of the Problem and Research Needs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne R. Munns, Jr.

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife populations are experiencing increasing pressure from human-induced changes in the landscape. Stressors including agricultural and urban land use, introduced invasive and exotic species, nutrient enrichment, direct human disturbance, and toxic chemicals directly or indirectly influence the quality and quantity of habitat used by terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. Governmental agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are required to assess risks to wildlife populations, in its broadest definition, that result from exposure to these stressors, yet considerable uncertainty exists with respect to how such assessments should be conducted. This uncertainty is compounded by questions concerning the interactive effects of co-occurring stressors, appropriate spatial scales of analysis, extrapolation of response data among species and from organisms to populations, and imperfect knowledge and use of limited data sets. Further, different risk problems require varying degrees of sophistication, methodological refinement, and data quality. These issues suggest a number of research needs to improve methods for wildlife risk assessments, including continued development of population dynamics models to evaluate the effects of multiple stressors at varying spatial scales, methods for extrapolating across endpoints and species with reasonable confidence, stressor-response relations and methods for combining them in predictive and diagnostic assessments, and accessible data sets describing the ecology of terrestrial and aquatic species. Case study application of models and methods for assessing wildlife risk will help to demonstrate their strengths and limitations for solving particular risk problems.

  10. Executive cognitive functions and impulsivity as correlates of risk taking and problem behavior in preadolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romer, Daniel; Betancourt, Laura; Giannetta, Joan M; Brodsky, Nancy L; Farah, Martha; Hurt, Hallam

    2009-11-01

    Initiation of drug use and other risky behavior in preadolescence is associated with poor developmental outcomes. In this research, we examine models that ascribe the trajectory to (a) weak executive cognitive function (ECF), (b) early manifestation of externalizing problems, or (c) heightened levels of trait impulsivity. We test the explanatory power of these factors in a structural equation model with a community sample of 387 preadolescents ages 10-12 years. Participants were tested with a computerized battery of tasks to assess three facets of ECF (working memory, cognitive control, and reward processing) as well as with an audio assisted computerized self-interview to obtain reports of impulsivity and risk behaviors (use of cigarettes and alcohol as well as engaging in fighting and gambling for money) and a self-administered questionnaire to assess externalizing and internalizing problems. The best fitting model explained both early risk taking and externalizing symptoms as the result of individual differences in impulsivity. Although no ECF was directly related to risk taking, working memory and one measure of reward processing performance (reversal learning) were inversely related to impulsivity. The results are discussed in regard to theories of early risk taking with particular focus on the potential relation between ECF and impulsive behavior tendencies and the implications for early intervention to prevent the dysfunctional trajectory associated with early risk behavior.

  11. Pilot study risk assessment for selected problems at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Meinhold, A.F.; Baxter, S.L.; Holtzman, S.; Morris, S.C.; Pardi, R.; Rowe, M.D.; Sun, C.; Anspaugh, L.; Layton, D.

    1993-03-01

    Two important environmental problems at the USDOE Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) facility in Fernald, Ohio were studied in this human health risk assessment. The problems studied were radon emissions from the K-65 waste silos, and offsite contamination of ground water with uranium. Waste from the processing of pitchblende ore is stored in the K-65 silos at the FEMP. Radium-226 in the waste decays to radon gas which escapes to the outside atmosphere. The concern is for an increase in lung cancer risk for nearby residents associated with radon exposure. Monitoring data and a gaussian plume transport model were used to develop a source term and predict exposure and risk to fenceline residents, residents within 1 and 5 miles of the silos, and residents of Hamilton and Cincinnati, Ohio. Two release scenarios were studied: the routine release of radon from the silos and an accidental loss of one silo dome integrity. Exposure parameters and risk factors were described as distributions. Risks associated with natural background radon concentrations were also estimated

  12. A logistics professional

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeaeskelaeinen, A.

    1998-01-01

    Finland's oil, chemicals, and energy company, Neste, has achieved an enviable standard of logistics serving the markets around the Baltic Rim. Neste's safe and efficient transportation services are handled by its own fleet of tankers, time-chartered vessels, contract road tankers, and rail. Neste's terminals play an important part in the company's logistics network. The company operates four terminals of its own in Finland, and works with other oil companies at three of their terminals. Neste's own terminals are located at the company's refineries at Porvoo and Naantali, and at Kokkola and Kemi on the Gulf of Bothnia. Outside Finland the completion of a new terminal at Riga in Latvia, to enhance the logistics services provided to Neste's network of service stations and direct sales customers in the Baltic countries. This joins a terminal at Muuga near Tallinn in Estonia, which has been operational for some five years. Construction work began on a terminal in St. Petersburg in December 1997 to serve customers in the St. Petersburg and Vyborg areas. Completion is scheduled for autumn 1999

  13. Logistic regression models

    CERN Document Server

    Hilbe, Joseph M

    2009-01-01

    This book really does cover everything you ever wanted to know about logistic regression … with updates available on the author's website. Hilbe, a former national athletics champion, philosopher, and expert in astronomy, is a master at explaining statistical concepts and methods. Readers familiar with his other expository work will know what to expect-great clarity.The book provides considerable detail about all facets of logistic regression. No step of an argument is omitted so that the book will meet the needs of the reader who likes to see everything spelt out, while a person familiar with some of the topics has the option to skip "obvious" sections. The material has been thoroughly road-tested through classroom and web-based teaching. … The focus is on helping the reader to learn and understand logistic regression. The audience is not just students meeting the topic for the first time, but also experienced users. I believe the book really does meet the author's goal … .-Annette J. Dobson, Biometric...

  14. The Directions for Development of Logistics Management in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avramenko Elena V.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at defining problems in the development of logistics management in Ukraine and identifying the main directions of the logistics development. The results of evaluation of the logistics efficiency by the World Bank on the LPI integral indicator were generalized, the dynamics of the main criteria for evaluating the efficiency of Ukrainian logistics for 2007-2016 were reviewed. The directions that will facilitate the development of logistics management in Ukraine have been formed according to the research by «Ukrainian Logistics Alliance».

  15. Logistic innovations in transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirosław Antonowicz

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The article discusses the issue of logistic innovations in transport. The essentials of logistic innovations in transport together with some examples of specific innovations are presented. The role of the client's needs in transport innovations is indicated. The most vital postulates affecting the innovativeness of shipping companies and derived from the author's experience as well as scholarly publications, are time, safety, reliability as well as comprehensiveness of service offer. Following the analysis of the issue, and on the grounds of Kaizen's and Lean's method, the concept of continuous innovations is suggested as very useful for the development of transport. The potential of clusters as the source of logistic innovations in transport is emphasised. Methods: The discussion of the issue was preceded by the author's analysis of written sources on innovativeness, the evaluation of ratings of innovativeness as well as the analysis of rewarded innovative solutions in transport subsequent to the businesses participation in the programme of innovative solutions in transport. The role of innovation practical business operations is argued following the analysis of some strategic documents such as: 2011 White Paper and the Strategy for the Development of Transport by 2020 adopted by the Polish government in 2013. Aim: The aim of the article is to present the role and significance of the issue of logistic innovations in transport and to cite instances of practical solutions implemented by shipping companies, the solutions which resulted in measurable effects. Following the author's observation of the instances of innovative solutions as well as his analysis of the ratings of innovativeness, the article aims to present the conclusions as for the specific kinds of activities which are indispensable to foster innovativeness in transport. Conclusions: The conclusions derived from the author's analyses and observations show that logistic

  16. Problems of making decisions with account of risk and safety factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larichev, O I

    1987-01-01

    New trends in making decisions on accidents when using large-scale technologies-NPPs, chemical plants etc., are considered. Three main directions in the investigations in this field are distinguished. One of them consists in risk measuring (its perception by people, ways of its quantitative determination). The second direction consists in increasing the safety of large-scale production systems. Here the following questions are considered: risk assessment (the safety standard statement), site selection for new systems, man-machine interaction problems, development of safer technologies, cost benefit safety analysis. The third direction is connected with the problem of accidents and their analysis. This direction includes considering the reasons and process of the accident development, preparing for the possible accidents, monitoring under extreme conditions, accident effect analysis.

  17. Problems of making decisions with account of risk and safety factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larichev, O.I.

    1987-01-01

    New trends in making decisions on accidents when using large-scale technologies-NPPs, chemical plants etc., are considered. Three main directions in the investigations in this field are distinguished. One of them consists in risk measuring (its perception by people, ways of its quantitative determination). The second direction consists in increasing the safety of large-scale production systems. Here the following questions are considered: risk assessment (the safety standard statement), site selection for new systems, man-machine interaction problems, development of safer technologies, cost benefit safety analysis. The third direction is connected with the problem of accidents and their analysis. This direction includes considering the reasons and process of the accident development, preparing for the possible accidents, monitoring under extreme conditions, accident effect analysis

  18. Identifying Children in Middle Childhood Who Are at Risk for Reading Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speece, Deborah L; Ritchey, Kristen D; Silverman, Rebecca; Schatschneider, Christopher; Walker, Caroline Y; Andrusik, Katryna N

    2010-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify and evaluate a universal screening battery for reading that is appropriate for older elementary students in a response to intervention model. Multiple measures of reading and reading correlates were administered to 230 fourth-grade children. Teachers rated children's reading skills, academic competence, and attention. Children were classified as not-at-risk or at-risk readers based on a three-factor model reflecting reading comprehension, word recognition/decoding, and word fluency. Predictors of reading status included group-administered tests of reading comprehension, silent word reading fluency, and teacher ratings of reading problems. Inclusion of individually administered tests and growth estimates did not add substantial variance. The receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis yielded an area under the curve index of 0.90, suggesting this model may both accurately and efficiently screen older elementary students with reading problems.

  19. The four Es of problem gambling: a psychological measure of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockloff, Matthew J; Dyer, Victoria

    2006-01-01

    A focus group of Reno area Gamblers Anonymous members identified four psychological traits contributing to risk for problem gambling, including: Escape, Esteem, Excess and Excitement. A panel of four experts authored 240 Likert-type items to measure these traits. By design, none of the items explicitly referred to gambling activities. Study 1 narrowed the field of useful items by employing a quasi-experimental design which compared the answers of Reno area Gamblers Anonymous members (N = 39) to a control sample (N = 34). Study 2 submitted successful items, plus new items authored with the knowledge gained from Study 1, to validation in a random sample telephone survey across Queensland, Australia (N=2577). The final 40 item Four Es scale (4Es) was reliable (alpha=.90); predicted gambling problems as measured by the Canadian Problem Gambling Index of Severity (PGSI, Ferris & Wynne (2001). The Canadian Problem Gambling Index: Final Report: Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse); and distinguished problem gamblers from persons with alcohol abuse problems. The new scale can provide a basis for further study in harm minimization, treatment, and theory development.

  20. Restrictive educational placements increase adolescent risks for students with early-starting conduct problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Christopher J; Bierman, Karen L; Coffman, Donna L

    2016-08-01

    Students with early-starting conduct problems often do poorly in school; they are disproportionately placed in restrictive educational placements outside of mainstream classrooms. Although intended to benefit students, research suggests that restrictive placements may exacerbate the maladjustment of youth with conduct problems. Mixed findings, small samples, and flawed designs limit the utility of existing research. This study examined the impact of restrictive educational placements on three adolescent outcomes (high school noncompletion, conduct disorder, depressive symptoms) in a sample of 861 students with early-starting conduct problems followed longitudinally from kindergarten (age 5-6). Causal modeling with propensity scores was used to adjust for confounding factors associated with restrictive placements. Analyses explored the timing of placement (elementary vs. secondary school) and moderation of impact by initial problem severity. Restrictive educational placement in secondary school (but not in elementary school) was iatrogenic, increasing the risk of high school noncompletion and the severity of adolescent conduct disorder. Negative effects were amplified for students with conduct problem behavior with less cognitive impairment. To avoid harm to students and to society, schools must find alternatives to restrictive placements for students with conduct problems in secondary school, particularly when these students do not have cognitive impairments that might warrant specialized educational supports. © 2015 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  1. Reference model analysis of suitability for logistics management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cezary Mańkowski

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Reference models are one of the many instruments aspiring to find into a set of different concepts, methods and techniques used in managing the logistics. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present the results of assessing the suitability of reference models for solving logistical problems. This evaluation indicates that they are universal, support the realization of all the logistics management function in various areas, such as logistics of manufacturing glass products.

  2. Family Chaos and Child Functioning in Relation to Sleep Problems Among Children at Risk for Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boles, Richard E; Halbower, Ann C; Daniels, Stephen; Gunnarsdottir, Thrudur; Whitesell, Nancy; Johnson, Susan L

    2017-01-01

    This study evaluated the influence of child and family functioning on child sleep behaviors in low-income minority families who are at risk for obesity. A cross-sectional study was utilized to measure child and family functioning from 2013 to 2014. Participants were recruited from Head Start classrooms while data were collected during home visits. A convenience sample of 72 low-income Hispanic (65%) and African American (32%) families of preschool-aged children were recruited for this study. We assessed the association of child and family functioning with child sleep behaviors using a multivariate multiple linear regression model. Bootstrap mediation analyses examined the effects of family chaos between child functioning and child sleep problems. Poorer child emotional and behavioral functioning related to total sleep behavior problems. Chaos associated with bedtime resistance significantly mediated the relationship between Behavioral and Emotional Screening System (BESS) and Bedtime Resistance. Families at high risk for obesity showed children with poorer emotional and behavioral functioning were at higher risk for problematic sleep behaviors, although we found no link between obesity and child sleep. Family chaos appears to play a significant role in understanding part of these relationships. Future longitudinal studies are necessary to establish causal relationships between child and family functioning and sleep problems to further guide obesity interventions aimed at improving child sleep routines and increasing sleep duration.

  3. [Risks and health problems caused by the use of video terminals].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamez González, Silvia; Ortiz-Hernández, Luis; Martínez-Alcántara, Susana; Méndez-Ramírez, Ignacio

    2003-01-01

    To evaluate the association between video display terminal (VDT) use and health hazards, occupational risks, and psychosocial factors, in newspaper workers. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 1998 in a representative sample (n = 68) drawn from a population of 218 VDT operators in Mexico City. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. Data were confirmed by performing physical examinations. The research hypothesis was that both the current and cumulative use of VDT are associated with visual, musculoskeletal system, and skin illnesses, as well as with fatigue and mental or psychosomatic disorders. Occupational health hazards were assessed (visual problems, postural risks, sedentary work, computer mouse use, excessive heat, and overcrowding), as well as psychosocial factors related to work organization (psychological demands, work control, and social support). Prevalence ratios were adjusted for confounding variables like age, sex and schooling. Women were more likely than men to have upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders (MSD), dermatitis, and seborrheic eczema. VDT use was associated with neuro-visual fatigue, upper extremity MSD, dermatitis, and seborrheic eczema. Computer mouse use and postural risks were significantly associated with health problems. Psychosocial factors were mainly associated with mental problems, psychosomatic disorders, and fatigue. Intense use of video screens has been found to cause musculoskeletal disorders of the hand. The diversification of tasks and control of labor processes itself had a protective effect against psychosomatic disorders and pathological fatigue.

  4. Ante partum depression and husband’s mental problem increased risk maternity blues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. I. Ismail

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Maternity blues disorder (MB is common, and it is usually undiagnosed. This study to identify several risk factors related to MB. Subjects were pregnant women who had antenatal and delivery at the Persahabatan Hospital (RSP Jakarta from 1 November 1999 to 15 August 2001. Consecutive sampling and was followed-up until two-week postpartum. Those who ever had psychiatric disorders (schizophrenia or other psychotic disorders were excluded. MB and ante partum depression (APD detected by using Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS. Husband’s mental status based on Symptom Check List-90 (SCL-90 respectively. Among 580 subjects, 25% suffering from MB. Compared with those who did not have APD, those who experienced it had more than three-fold increased risk to be MB [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR = 3.57; 95% confidence interval (CI = 2.54;5.03]. Those who had not healthy baby on the first 5 days afterbirth than who had healthy baby had twice increased risk to be MB (aHR = 2.21; 95% CI = 1.34 ; 3.66. Who had husband with problem in mental health had 1.9 increased risk to be MB (aHR = 1.91; 95% CI = 1.36 ; 2.68. Stress during pregnancy had 1.6 increased risk to be MB (aHR = 1.59; 95% CI = 1.14 ; 2.25. To control MB, special attention should be paid to women who had APD history, who had unhealthy baby on 5 first days afterbirth, who had husbands’ mental health problems, and who had stress during pregnancy. (Med J Indones 2006; 15:74-80Keywords: ante partum, maternity blues, depression, mental problem

  5. Maternal physiological dysregulation while parenting poses risk for infant attachment disorganization and behavior problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leerkes, Esther M; Su, Jinni; Calkins, Susan D; O'Brien, Marion; Supple, Andrew J

    2017-02-01

    The extent to which indices of maternal physiological arousal (skin conductance augmentation) and regulation (vagal withdrawal) while parenting predict infant attachment disorganization and behavior problems directly or indirectly via maternal sensitivity was examined in a sample of 259 mothers and their infants. Two covariates, maternal self-reported emotional risk and Adult Attachment Interview attachment coherence were assessed prenatally. Mothers' physiological arousal and regulation were measured during parenting tasks when infants were 6 months old. Maternal sensitivity was observed during distress-eliciting tasks when infants were 6 and 14 months old, and an average sensitivity score was calculated. Attachment disorganization was observed during the Strange Situation when infants were 14 months old, and mothers reported on infants' behavior problems when infants were 27 months old. Over and above covariates, mothers' arousal and regulation while parenting interacted to predict infant attachment disorganization and behavior problems such that maternal arousal was associated with higher attachment disorganization and behavior problems when maternal regulation was low but not when maternal regulation was high. This effect was direct and not explained by maternal sensitivity. The results suggest that maternal physiological dysregulation while parenting places infants at risk for psychopathology.

  6. A qualitative study of health problems, risk factors, and prevention among Emergency Medical Service workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dropkin, Jonathan; Moline, Jacqueline; Power, Paul M; Kim, Hyun

    2015-01-01

    Risk factors among Emergency Medical Service (EMS) workers are difficult to characterize and inconsistencies remain about their main health problems. To identify main work-related health problems among EMS workers in the United States; identify risk factors at the organizational, task, and exposure level; identify prevention strategies; examine these issues between participants (EMS workers and supervisors). Two types of qualitative research methods based on grounded theory were used: in-depth interviews with emergency medical technicians/paramedics (EMS workers) and focus groups (EMS workers and supervisors). Most participants reported similar health problems (musculoskeletal injuries) and the task related to these injuries, patient handling. Participants also reported similar physical exposures (ascending stairs with patients and patient weight). For organization/psychosocial factors, participants agreed that fitness, wages, breaks, and shift scheduling were linked with injuries, but overall, perceptions about these issues differed more than physical exposures. Lack of trust between EMS workers and supervisors were recurrent concerns among workers. However, not all organizational/psychosocial factors differed. EMS workers and supervisors agreed pre-employment screening could reduce injuries. Participants identified micro- and macro-level prevention opportunities. The grounded theory approach identified workers' main health problems, and the organizational factors and exposures linked with them. Perceptions about work organization/psychosocial exposures appeared more diverse than physical exposures. Prevention among all participants focused on mechanized equipment, but EMS workers also wanted more organizational support.

  7. Developmental transitions in presentations of externalizing problems among boys and girls at risk for child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villodas, Miguel T; Litrownik, Alan J; Thompson, Richard; Jones, Deborah; Roesch, Scott C; Hussey, Jon M; Block, Stephanie; English, Diana J; Dubowitz, Howard

    2015-02-01

    The present study examined the impact of children's maltreatment experiences on the emergence of externalizing problem presentations among children during different developmental periods. The sample included 788 youth and their caregivers who participated in a multisite, prospective study of youth at-risk for maltreatment. Externalizing problems were assessed at ages 4, 8, and 12, and symptoms and diagnoses of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, and conduct disorder were assessed at age 14, during interviews with youth and caregivers. Information about maltreatment allegations was coded from official records. Latent transition analysis identified three groups of youth with similar presentations of externalizing problems ("well adjusted," "hyperactive/oppositional," and "aggressive/rule-breaking") and transitions between groups from ages 4, 8, and 12. A "defiant/deceitful" group also emerged at age 12. Girls were generally more likely to present as well adjusted than boys. Children with recent physical abuse allegations had an increased risk for aggressive/rule-breaking presentations during the preschool and preadolescent years, while children with sexual abuse or neglect allegations had lower probabilities of having well-adjusted presentations during middle childhood. These findings indicate that persistently severe aggressive conduct problems, which are related to the most concerning outcomes, can be identified early, particularly among neglected and physically and sexually abused children.

  8. Sensitivity and specificity of a brief personality screening instrument in predicting future substance use, emotional, and behavioral problems: 18-month predictive validity of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; O'Leary-Barrett, Maeve; Sully, Laura; Conrod, Patricia

    2013-01-01

    This study assessed the validity, sensitivity, and specificity of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS), a measure of personality risk factors for substance use and other behavioral problems in adolescence. The concurrent and predictive validity of the SURPS was tested in a sample of 1,162 adolescents (mean age: 13.7 years) using linear and logistic regressions, while its sensitivity and specificity were examined using the receiver operating characteristics curve analyses. Concurrent and predictive validity tests showed that all 4 brief scales-hopelessness (H), anxiety sensitivity (AS), impulsivity (IMP), and sensation seeking (SS)-were related, in theoretically expected ways, to measures of substance use and other behavioral and emotional problems. Results also showed that when using the 4 SURPS subscales to identify adolescents "at risk," one can identify a high number of those who developed problems (high sensitivity scores ranging from 72 to 91%). And, as predicted, because each scale is related to specific substance and mental health problems, good specificity was obtained when using the individual personality subscales (e.g., most adolescents identified at high risk by the IMP scale developed conduct or drug use problems within the next 18 months [a high specificity score of 70 to 80%]). The SURPS is a valuable tool for identifying adolescents at high risk for substance misuse and other emotional and behavioral problems. Implications of findings for the use of this measure in future research and prevention interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  9. Risk-aware multi-armed bandit problem with application to portfolio selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Xiaoguang; Fu, Feng

    2017-11-01

    Sequential portfolio selection has attracted increasing interest in the machine learning and quantitative finance communities in recent years. As a mathematical framework for reinforcement learning policies, the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem addresses the primary difficulty in sequential decision-making under uncertainty, namely the exploration versus exploitation dilemma, and therefore provides a natural connection to portfolio selection. In this paper, we incorporate risk awareness into the classic multi-armed bandit setting and introduce an algorithm to construct portfolio. Through filtering assets based on the topological structure of the financial market and combining the optimal multi-armed bandit policy with the minimization of a coherent risk measure, we achieve a balance between risk and return.

  10. PROBLEMS AND OBSTACLES IN CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN INDIAN PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RENU ARORA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the credit risk management (CRM practices of Indian public sector banks in grant of commercial loans to find the grey areas which need review and restructuring to improve banks’ asset quality. Based on literature review, a conceptual model of credit risk management systems for commercial loans, of Indian public sector banks, has been developed. This model has been used to underline the problems areas and obstacles in credit risk management through comparison of large and small banks. The empirical comparison of CRM practices of Indian public sector banks has resulted into emergence of various grey areas, like insufficient training, data management, inappropriate IT support, system disintegration, inconsistent rating approaches, which need immediate attention and if tackled properly, can reduce their non-performing assets.

  11. SEPARATION PHENOMENA LOGISTIC REGRESSION

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    Ikaro Daniel de Carvalho Barreto

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an application of concepts about the maximum likelihood estimation of the binomial logistic regression model to the separation phenomena. It generates bias in the estimation and provides different interpretations of the estimates on the different statistical tests (Wald, Likelihood Ratio and Score and provides different estimates on the different iterative methods (Newton-Raphson and Fisher Score. It also presents an example that demonstrates the direct implications for the validation of the model and validation of variables, the implications for estimates of odds ratios and confidence intervals, generated from the Wald statistics. Furthermore, we present, briefly, the Firth correction to circumvent the phenomena of separation.

  12. Paradoxes and Opportunities in Logistic Outsourcing Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đurđica Stojanović

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Historically, very few logistic trends have caught the attention of academics and practitioners to the same extent as outsourcing. A comprehensive literature review reveals two reasons for this continual topicality. The problem complexity and the business environment dynamics – including an interaction with other main trends in logistics and modern supply chains – both led to a permanent literature gap, indicating the need to explore some new aspects of logistics outsourcing (LO. In this paper, a new LO research perspective has been explored by identifying some weaknesses in the main LO research streams and related common viewpoints which led to six ‘logistics outsourcing research paradoxes’. Each of these paradoxes is briefly described and their links with research streams and common views on LO discussed. Finally, the nature of some known opportunities for further research is better explained and some overlooked research opportunities are highlighted.

  13. Socioeconomic deprivation is an independent risk factor for behavioral problems in children with epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, Joanna; Weir, Andrew; Chin, Richard F; McLellan, Ailsa

    2015-04-01

    The aim of this study was to examine whether socioeconomic deprivation in children with epilepsy (CWE) increases risk for behavioral problems independent of seizure factors. A cross-sectional study was done in which parents of children attending a specialist epilepsy clinic were invited to complete a child behavior checklist (CBCL) questionnaire about their child. Medical and sociodemographic data on CWE were obtained through their pediatric neurologists. Home postal code was used to obtain quintiles of Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2012 (SIMD2012) scores for individuals. Lower (1-3) quintiles correspond to higher socioeconomic deprivation. Regression analysis was used to investigate whether a lower quintile was an independent risk factor for scores >63 (significant behavioral problem). Parents of 87 children (42 male, mean age of 10.5years) were enrolled. Fifty-nine percent had total scores >63. A higher proportion of children from quintiles 1-3 compared to those from quintiles 4-5 had externalizing (49% vs. 25%, p=0.02) and total (54% vs. 30%, p=0.02) scores >63. Adjusted OR of quintiles 1-3 vs. 4-5 for scores >63=14.8, 95% CI=3.0, 68.0. Fewer children with scores >63 and from quintiles 1-3 were known to the child and adolescent mental health service (CAMHS) compared to those in quintiles 4-5 (p=0.01). Socioeconomic deprivation was an independent risk factor for behavioral problems in CWE. Children with epilepsy and behavioral problems who lived in socioeconomically deprived areas received less help. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Maternal and anaesthesia-related risk factors and incidence of spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension in elective caesarean section: A multinomial logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakherpour, Atousa; Ghaem, Haleh; Fattahi, Zeinabsadat; Zaree, Samaneh

    2018-01-01

    Although spinal anaesthesia (SA) is nowadays the preferred anaesthesia technique for caesarean section (CS), it is associated with considerable haemodynamic effects, such as maternal hypotension. This study aimed to evaluate a wide range of variables (related to parturient and anaesthesia techniques) associated with the incidence of different degrees of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. This prospective study was conducted on 511 mother-infant pairs, in which the mother underwent elective CS under SA. The data were collected through preset proforma containing three parts related to the parturient, anaesthetic techniques and a table for recording maternal blood pressure. It was hypothesized that some maternal (such as age) and anaesthesia-related risk factors (such as block height) were associated with occurance of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. The incidence of mild, moderate and severe hypotension was 20%, 35% and 40%, respectively. Eventually, ten risk factors were found to be associated with hypotension, including age >35 years, body mass index ≥25 kg/m 2 , 11-20 kg weight gain, gravidity ≥4, history of hypotension, baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) 100 beats/min in maternal modelling, fluid preloading ≥1000 ml, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block height >T 4 in anaesthesia-related modelling ( P < 0.05). Age, body mass index, weight gain, gravidity, history of hypotension, baseline SBP and heart rate, fluid preloading, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block hieght were the main risk factors identified in the study for SA-induced hypotension during CS.

  15. Maternal and anaesthesia-related risk factors and incidence of spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension in elective caesarean section: A multinomial logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atousa Fakherpour

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Although spinal anaesthesia (SA is nowadays the preferred anaesthesia technique for caesarean section (CS, it is associated with considerable haemodynamic effects, such as maternal hypotension. This study aimed to evaluate a wide range of variables (related to parturient and anaesthesia techniques associated with the incidence of different degrees of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. Methods: This prospective study was conducted on 511 mother–infant pairs, in which the mother underwent elective CS under SA. The data were collected through preset proforma containing three parts related to the parturient, anaesthetic techniques and a table for recording maternal blood pressure. It was hypothesized that some maternal (such as age and anaesthesia-related risk factors (such as block height were associated with occurance of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. Results: The incidence of mild, moderate and severe hypotension was 20%, 35% and 40%, respectively. Eventually, ten risk factors were found to be associated with hypotension, including age >35 years, body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, 11–20 kg weight gain, gravidity ≥4, history of hypotension, baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP 100 beats/min in maternal modelling, fluid preloading ≥1000 ml, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block height >T4in anaesthesia-related modelling (P < 0.05. Conclusion: Age, body mass index, weight gain, gravidity, history of hypotension, baseline SBP and heart rate, fluid preloading, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block hieght were the main risk factors identified in the study for SA-induced hypotension during CS.

  16. Bias in logistic regression due to imperfect diagnostic test results and practical correction approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valle, Denis; Lima, Joanna M Tucker; Millar, Justin; Amratia, Punam; Haque, Ubydul

    2015-11-04

    Logistic regression is a statistical model widely used in cross-sectional and cohort studies to identify and quantify the effects of potential disease risk factors. However, the impact of imperfect tests on adjusted odds ratios (and thus on the identification of risk factors) is under-appreciated. The purpose of this article is to draw attention to the problem associated with modelling imperfect diagnostic tests, and propose simple Bayesian models to adequately address this issue. A systematic literature review was conducted to determine the proportion of malaria studies that appropriately accounted for false-negatives/false-positives in a logistic regression setting. Inference from the standard logistic regression was also compared with that from three proposed Bayesian models using simulations and malaria data from the western Brazilian Amazon. A systematic literature review suggests that malaria epidemiologists are largely unaware of the problem of using logistic regression to model imperfect diagnostic test results. Simulation results reveal that statistical inference can be substantially improved when using the proposed Bayesian models versus the standard logistic regression. Finally, analysis of original malaria data with one of the proposed Bayesian models reveals that microscopy sensitivity is strongly influenced by how long people have lived in the study region, and an important risk factor (i.e., participation in forest extractivism) is identified that would have been missed by standard logistic regression. Given the numerous diagnostic methods employed by malaria researchers and the ubiquitous use of logistic regression to model the results of these diagnostic tests, this paper provides critical guidelines to improve data analysis practice in the presence of misclassification error. Easy-to-use code that can be readily adapted to WinBUGS is provided, enabling straightforward implementation of the proposed Bayesian models.

  17. Logistics in Estonian business companies

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    A. Kiisler

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The article describes logistics survey in Estonia carried out in 2007 as a part of the LogOnBaltic project. The level of logistics in Estonian manufacturing, trading and logistics companies is explored through logistics costs, performance indicators, outsourcing, ICT use and logistics self-estimation of the companies responded. Responses from 186 Estonian companies were gathered through a web-based survey (38% of manufacturing, 38% of trading and 24% of logistics sector. Logistics costs as the percentage of turnover make in average 13.8% in manufacturing and 13.3% in trading. Transportation and inventory carrying cost form around 70% of overall logistics costs. Considering the logistics indicators surveyed, Estonian companies show up with relatively low perfect order fulfillment rates, short customer order fulfillment cycles and effective management of cash flows. The most widely outsourced logistics function is international transportation followed by domestic transportation, freight forwarding and reverse logistics. By 2010, the outsourcing of IT systems in logistics followed by inventory management, warehousing and product customization is expected to increase more substantially. The awareness of logistics importance is still low among Estonian companies. Only 27–44% of those agree that logistics has a considerable impact on profitability, competitive advantage, top management or customer service level.

  18. Nuclear power plant: West German management of risk - a problem analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paschen, H.; Bechmann, G.; Frederichs, G.

    1983-01-01

    The arguments concerning the risk of nuclear energy put forward in the press and in books, as well as in hearings and in courts of law, force experts and politicians to take a stand. Usually, these arguments concern the experience that problems of safety have so far always been solved, the high state of the art of safety technology, and the existence of comparable or much higher risks in other fields of technology and daily life. In all, no major progress has been made in this dialogue for years. Both sides repeat their arguments in a more or less stereotypical manner. This obvious talking past each other confirms the above-mentioned thesis that risk primarily has the function of symbolizing the opposing positions in a controversy whose causes are more complex than can be perceived under the narrow perspective of safety and risk. If this thesis proves correct, a consensus on the issue of risk will not be reached as long as the complex causes and underlying motives of the conflict remain effective

  19. The Third Party Logistics Partner Selection of B2C E-Commerce Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Wei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, with the rapid development of Internet, e-commerce enterprises in China is at an alarming rate of sustainable development, the B2C e-commerce in the online shopping market accounted for a large proportion, with the rapid change of the market and customer needs to establish a flexible distribution service is one of the many e-commerce companies need to solve. Using self logistics capital occupancy bigger; the logistics alliance, with the risk of internal information disclosure; and on the third party logistics, not only capital and manpower can be effectively used, helps enterprises to strengthen the core business. Therefore, it is very important to choose the appropriate third party logistics providers to reduce operating costs and improve the market influence. This paper analyses the existing problems in the third party logistics, the establishment of a more complete index system, according to the actual situation of the suppliers, using the improved AHP method and the entropy coefficient method to get the comprehensive weight, finally get the approximation method to meet the business requirements of the logistics service providers use the ideal, for commercial enterprises to third party logistics service provider selection and puts forward some available models.

  20. Greater involvement and diversity of Internet gambling as a risk factor for problem gambling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Alex; Blaszczynski, Alex; Hing, Nerilee

    2015-01-01

    Background: Concerns that Internet gambling has elevated the prevalence of problem gambling have not been substantiated; however, evidence suggests a subgroup of Internet gamblers do experience higher rates of gambling harms. Greater overall involvement in gambling appears to be predictive of harms. The purpose of this study was to examine differences between Internet gamblers with a single or multiple online gambling accounts, including their gambling behaviours, factors influencing their online gambling and risk of experiencing gambling problems. Methods: Internet gamblers (3178) responding to an online survey that assessed their gambling behaviour, and use of single or multiple online gambling accounts. Results: Results revealed that multiple account holders were more involved gamblers, gambling on more activities and more frequently, and had higher rates of gambling problems than single account holders. Multiple account holders selected gambling sites based on price, betting options, payout rates and game experience, whereas single account holders prioritized legality and consumer protection features. Conclusion: Results suggest two different types of Internet gamblers: one motivated to move between sites to optimize preferred experiences with a tendency to gamble in a more volatile manner; and a smaller, but more stable group less influenced by promotions and experiences, and seeking a reputable and safe gambling experience. As the majority of Internet gamblers use multiple accounts, more universal responsible gambling strategies are needed to assist gamblers to track and control their expenditure to reduce risks of harm. PMID:25745873

  1. Greater involvement and diversity of Internet gambling as a risk factor for problem gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gainsbury, Sally M; Russell, Alex; Blaszczynski, Alex; Hing, Nerilee

    2015-08-01

    Concerns that Internet gambling has elevated the prevalence of problem gambling have not been substantiated; however, evidence suggests a subgroup of Internet gamblers do experience higher rates of gambling harms. Greater overall involvement in gambling appears to be predictive of harms. The purpose of this study was to examine differences between Internet gamblers with a single or multiple online gambling accounts, including their gambling behaviours, factors influencing their online gambling and risk of experiencing gambling problems. Internet gamblers (3178) responding to an online survey that assessed their gambling behaviour, and use of single or multiple online gambling accounts. Results revealed that multiple account holders were more involved gamblers, gambling on more activities and more frequently, and had higher rates of gambling problems than single account holders. Multiple account holders selected gambling sites based on price, betting options, payout rates and game experience, whereas single account holders prioritized legality and consumer protection features. Results suggest two different types of Internet gamblers: one motivated to move between sites to optimize preferred experiences with a tendency to gamble in a more volatile manner; and a smaller, but more stable group less influenced by promotions and experiences, and seeking a reputable and safe gambling experience. As the majority of Internet gamblers use multiple accounts, more universal responsible gambling strategies are needed to assist gamblers to track and control their expenditure to reduce risks of harm. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  2. Understanding common risk analysis problems leads to better E and P decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.B.

    1994-01-01

    Many petroleum geologists, engineers and managers who have been introduced to petroleum risk analysis doubt that probability theory actually works in practice. Discovery probability estimates for exploration prospects always seem to be more optimistic than after-the-fact results. In general, probability estimates seem to be plucked from the air without any objective basis. Because of subtleties in probability theories, errors may result in applying risk analysis to real problems. Four examples have been selected to illustrate how misunderstanding in applying risk analysis may lead to incorrect decisions. Examples 1 and 2 show how falsely assuming statistical independence distorts probability calculations. Example 1 and 2 show how falsely assuming statistical independence distorts probability calculations. Example 3 discusses problems with related variable using the Monte Carlo method. Example 4 shows how subsurface data yields a probability value that is superior to a simple statistical estimate. The potential mistakes in the following examples would go unnoticed in analyses in most companies. Lack of objectivity and flawed theory would be blamed when fault actually would lies with incorrect application of basic probability principles

  3. [Nursing diagnoses and most common collaboration problems in high-risk pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouveia, Helga Geremias; Lopes, Maria Helena Baena de Moraes

    2004-01-01

    This study identified the demographic profile, obstetric and clinical diagnoses, nursing diagnosis and most common collaboration problem among pregnant women subject to high-risk at a hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. Data were collected by means of a form based on Gordon's Functional Health Patterns. Nursing diagnoses were determined on the basis of the NANDA (North American Nursing Diagnosis Association) taxonomy. The nursing diagnoses found in 50% or more of the pregnant women were: risk for infection (90.1%), altered health maintenance (84.5%), altered comfort (80.3%), risk of ineffective breastfeeding (59.2%), altered sexuality patterns (52.1%), fear (52.1%) and pain (50.7%). The collaboration problem found in 50% or more of the cases was: potential complication: preterm labor (62.0%), potential complication: maternal tachycardia (54,9%) and potential complication: hypotension (54,9%). Thus, these results will allow us to guide the nursing care rendered to these pregnant women.

  4. Índice de risco de mortalidade por endocardite infecciosa: um modelo logístico multivariado Risk index for death by infective endocarditis: a multivariate logistic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mário Augusto Cray da Costa

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Os objetivos do presente trabalho foram identificar variáveis preditivas de mortalidade hospitalar em endocardite infecciosa e criar fórmula matemática para cálculo do risco de óbito e um escore de risco, comparando os dois métodos com a curva ROC. MÉTODO: Foram estudados, retrospectivamente, 186 casos consecutivos de endocardite infecciosa (EI confirmados, divididos em dois grupos: alta (137 e óbito hospitalar (49. A partir das razões das chances obtidas em análise multivariada, foram criados: uma fórmula para cálculo do risco de óbito e um escore de risco. RESULTADOS: Fatores preditivos de maior mortalidade (análise multivariada e o escore de risco com seus respectivos pesos foram: idade > 40 anos (RC = 4.16-95%I.C. [1.63,10.80] - 4 pontos, insuficiência cardíaca classe IV ou choque cardiovascular (RC = 4.93 - 95%I.C. [1.86,13.05] - 5 pontos, sepsis não-controlada (RC =5.97 - 95%I.C. [1.95,18.35] - 6 pontos, distúrbio de condução (RC = 5.07-95%I.C. [1.67,15.35] - 5 pontos, arritmia (RC = 8.17 - 95%I.C. [2.60,25.71] - 8 pontos, valva com grande destruição ou abscesso ou prótese (RC = 4.77-95%I.C. [1.44,15.76] - 5 pontos, e vegetação grande e móvel (RC = 4.36-95%I.C. [1.55,12.90] - 4 pontos. Pacientes com escore entre 0 e 10 tiveram 5,26% de MT e maior que 20: 78,9%. CONCLUSÕES: Quanto maior o escore, maior é a mortalidade, complemente-se, ainda, que a estimativa de mortalidade obtida por cálculo ou pelo escore é semelhante. É possível utilizar software para facilitar a aplicação do escore e calcular risco de mortalidade por endocardite infecciosa.OBJECTIVE: This study aimed at identifying predictive variables for in-hospital mortality, calculating the probability of death and creating a risk index for death by infective endocarditis by comparing two methods using a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted of 186 consecutive cases of confirmed infective

  5. Empty Container Logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakov Karmelić

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Within the whole world container traffic, the largest share of containers is in the status of repositioning. Container repositioning results from the need for harmonization between the point of empty container accumulation and the point of demand, and waiting time for the availability of the first next transport of cargo. This status of containers on the container market is the consequence of imbalances in the worldwide trade distribution on most important shipping routes. The need for fast and effective reallocation of empty containers causes high costs and often represents an obstacle affecting the efficiency of port container terminals and inland carriers.In accordance with the above issue, this paper is mainly focused on the analysis of the data concerning global container capacities and the roots of container equipment imbalances, with the aim of determining the importance of empty container management and the need for empty container micro-logistic planning at the spread port area.

  6. Maternal mental health predicts risk of developmental problems at 3 years of age: follow up of a community based trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leew Shirley

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Undetected and untreated developmental problems can have a significant economic and social impact on society. Intervention to ameliorate potential developmental problems requires early identification of children at risk of future learning and behaviour difficulties. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of risk for developmental problems among preschool children born to medically low risk women and identify factors that influence outcomes. Methods Mothers who had participated in a prenatal trial were followed up three years post partum to answer a telephone questionnaire. Questions were related to child health and development, child care, medical care, mother's lifestyle, well-being, and parenting style. The main outcome measure was risk for developmental problems using the Parents' Evaluation of Developmental Status (PEDS. Results Of 791 children, 11% were screened by the PEDS to be at high risk for developmental problems at age three. Of these, 43% had previously been referred for assessment. Children most likely to have been referred were those born preterm. Risk factors for delay included: male gender, history of ear infections, a low income environment, and a mother with poor emotional health and a history of abuse. A child with these risk factors was predicted to have a 53% chance of screening at high risk for developmental problems. This predicted probability was reduced to 19% if the child had a mother with good emotional health and no history of abuse. Conclusion Over 10% of children were identified as high risk for developmental problems by the screening, and more than half of those had not received a specialist referral. Risk factors for problems included prenatal and perinatal maternal and child factors. Assessment of maternal health and effective screening of child development may increase detection of children at high risk who would benefit from early intervention. Trial registration Current

  7. Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil

    We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th...

  8. Planning and management of logistic cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Kudashkin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We are considering planning and managing of logistic cycle, its impact on the content of the main processes that comprise the cycle to implement the order for the supply of material resources for industrial consumption, as well as its practical use, effectiveness, and prospects.This research paper is made on the basis of the information, received from textbooks and scientific literature of domestic and foreign authors, as well as from other sources. The main methods, used in this work are as follows: method of system analysis, method of the theory of operations’ research, prognostics. Application of these methods allows forecasting material flows, creating the integrated management systems and controlling their movements, developing systems of logistic service, to optimize supply stock and solve a number of other tasks.A logistic approach to form a modern system of logistics will save time, reduce costs for the purchase of material resources, their delivery and storage.In modern conditions of the market economy, the considered time parameters of the logistic chain are essential for manufacturing enterprises because their records significantly increase the efficiency of the logistical system.Logistics is equipped with a special complex of economic and mathematical models, the main feature of which is the adaptability, i.e. ability to solve complex optimization problems in the operational mode and in the process of the management of material flows. The primary role of these models in a market economy is to identify quickly points of compromise.Dynamics to functional cycles gives the necessity to align resource needs «input» and «output». «Input» functional cycle is an order that specifies requirements for a product or service. Logistical system, which is able to complete fully the order of any size, as a rule, needs in the «combined» functional cycles, including different transactions and operations at different stages. The «output» of

  9. The prevalence of musculoskeletal problems and risk factors among women assembly workers in the semiconductor industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasakaran, A; Chee, H L; Rampal, K G; Tan, G L

    2003-12-01

    A cross-sectional study to determine work-related musculoskeletal problems and ergonomic risk factors was conducted among 529 women semiconductor workers. Overall, 83.4% had musculoskeletal symptoms in the last one year. Pain in the back (57.8%), lower leg (48.4%) and shoulder (44.8%) were the three most common musculoskeletal problems. Significant associations were found between prolonged standing and upper and lower leg pain, between prolonged sitting and neck and shoulder pain and between prolonged bending and shoulder arm, back and upper leg pain. The study therefore showed a clear association between work-related musculoskeletal pain and prolonged hours spent in particular postures and movements.

  10. Application of oil spill model to marine pollution and risk control problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aseev, Nikita; Agoshkov, Valery; Sheloput, Tatyana

    2017-04-01

    Oil transportation by sea induces challenging problems of environmental control. Millions of tonnes of oil are yearly released during routine ship operations, not to mention vast spills due to different accidents (e.g. tanker collisions, grounding, etc.). Oil pollution is dangerous to marine organisms such as plants, fish and mammals, leading to widespread damage to our planet. In turn, fishery and travel agencies can lose money and clients, and ship operators are obliged to pay huge penalties for environmental pollution. In this work we present the method of accessing oil pollution of marine environment using recently developed oil spill model. The model describes basic processes of the oil slick evolution: oil transport due to currents, drift under the action of wind, spreading on the surface, evaporation, emulsification and dispersion. Such parameters as slick location, mass, density of oil, water content, viscosity and density of "water-in-oil" emulsion can be calculated. We demonstrate how to apply the model to damage calculation problems using a concept of average damage to particular marine area. We also formulate the problem of oil spill risk control, when some accident parameters are not known, but their probability distribution is given. We propose a new algorithm to solve such problems and show results of our model simulations. The work can be interesting to broad environmental, physics and mathematics community. The work is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant 16-31-00510.

  11. Gratitude, hope, mindfulness and personal-growth initiative: buffers or risk factors for problem gambling?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasmine M Y Loo

    Full Text Available The majority of prevention and intervention research in problem gambling (PG has focused on identifying negative risk factors. However, not all at-risk individuals go on to develop anticipated disorders and many thrive in spite of them. In healthcare settings, PG and other disorders are typically conceptualized from the biomedical perspective that frame disorders as something negative residing within the individual and reduction in negativity is seen as success. Indeed, this problem-focused conceptualization may be adequate in many cases as reducing PG behaviour is undoubtedly an important outcome, but the focus on negativity alone is too narrow to capture the complexity of human behaviour. Hence, this study attempts to bridge the gap in literature by providing an evaluation of the predictive ability of the positive dispositions on problem gambling severity, gambling-related cognitions, and gambling urges. The positive psychological dispositions examined were curiosity, gratitude, hope, personal growth initiative, and mindfulness. Participants consisted of 801 Taiwanese Chinese students and community individuals (Mean age = 25.36 years. Higher levels of gratitude and hope have been found to predict lower PG, gambling-related cognitions, or gambling urges. Meanwhile, higher mindfulness predicted lower PG, but only among Chinese males. However, lower personal growth initiative predicted lower PG, gambling-related cognitions, and gambling urges. These analyses have small to medium effect sizes with significant predictions. Findings of this study have essential implications in understanding and treating Chinese problem gamblers. These positive dispositions should be addressed by mental health professionals in preventative and treatment programs among Chinese individuals. Further implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.

  12. Problematic Internet Use among Greek university students: an ordinal logistic regression with risk factors of negative psychological beliefs, pornographic sites, and online games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frangos, Christos C; Frangos, Constantinos C; Sotiropoulos, Ioannis

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationships between Problematic Internet Use (PIU) among university students in Greece and factors such as gender, age, family condition, academic performance in the last semester of their studies, enrollment in unemployment programs, amount of Internet use per week (in general and per application), additional personal habits or dependencies (number of coffees, alcoholic drinks drunk per day, taking substances, cigarettes smoked per day), and negative psychological beliefs. Data were gathered from 2,358 university students from across Greece. The prevalence of PIU was 34.7% in our sample, and PIU was significantly associated with gender, parental family status, grade of studies during the previous semester, staying or not with parents, enrollment of the student in an unemployment program, and whether the student paid a subscription to the Internet (p pornographic sites, chat rooms, advertisement sites, Google, Yahoo!, their e-mail, ftp, games, and blogs more than non-problematic Internet users. PIU was also associated with other potential addictive personal habits of smoking, drinking alcohol or coffee, and taking drugs. Significant risk factors for PIU were being male, enrolment in unemployment programs, presence of negative beliefs, visiting pornographic sites, and playing online games. Thus PIU is prevalent among Greek university students and attention should be given to it by health officials.

  13. Logistics Operations in Combat Operations Against an Insurgent Force

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hatcher, Clay

    2007-01-01

    .... The road networks are generally not secure and put soldiers at risk. How do we distribute supplies and reduce the risk or avoid the enemy's threat to our combat logistics patrols in an insurgent environment...

  14. A Mathematical Model to Improve the Performance of Logistics Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Izman Herdiansyah

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of logistics nowadays is expanding from just providing transportation and warehousing to offering total integrated logistics. To remain competitive in the global market environment, business enterprises need to improve their logistics operations performance. The improvement will be achieved when we can provide a comprehensive analysis and optimize its network performances. In this paper, a mixed integer linier model for optimizing logistics network performance is developed. It provides a single-product multi-period multi-facilities model, as well as the multi-product concept. The problem is modeled in form of a network flow problem with the main objective to minimize total logistics cost. The problem can be solved using commercial linear programming package like CPLEX or LINDO. Even in small case, the solver in Excel may also be used to solve such model.Keywords: logistics network, integrated model, mathematical programming, network optimization

  15. A Study on Reverse Logistics

    OpenAIRE

    Reddy, Dhananjaya

    2011-01-01

    In the competitive world of manufacturing, companies are often searching for new ways to improve their process, customer satisfaction and stay ahead in the game with their competitors. Reverse logistics has been considered a strategy to bring these things to life for the past decade or so. This thesis work tries to shed some light on the basics of reverse logistics and how reverse logistics can be used as a management strategy. This paper points out the fundamentals of reverse logistics and l...

  16. Toddlers with Early Behavioral Problems at Higher Family Demographic Risk Benefit the Most from Maternal Emotion Talk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brophy-Herb, Holly E; Bocknek, Erika London; Vallotton, Claire D; Stansbury, Kathy E; Senehi, Neda; Dalimonte-Merckling, Danielle; Lee, Young-Eun

    2015-09-01

    To test the hypothesis that toddlers at highest risk for behavioral problems from the most economically vulnerable families will benefit most from maternal talk about emotions. This study included 89 toddlers and mothers from low-income families. Behavioral problems were rated at 2 time points by masters-level trained Early Head Start home visiting specialists. Maternal emotion talk was coded from a wordless book-sharing task. Coding focused on mothers' emotion bridging, which included labeling emotions, explaining the context of emotions, noting the behavioral cues of emotions, and linking emotions to toddlers' own experiences. Maternal demographic risk reflected a composite score of 5 risk factors. A significant 3-way interaction between Time 1 toddler behavior problems, maternal emotion talk, and maternal demographic risk (p = .001) and examination of slope difference tests revealed that when maternal demographic risk was greater, more maternal emotion talk buffered associations between earlier and later behavior problems. Greater demographic risk and lower maternal emotion talk intensified Time 1 behavior problems as a predictor of Time 2 behavior problems. The model explained 54% of the variance in toddlers' Time 2 behavior problems. Analyses controlled for maternal warmth to better examine the unique contributions of emotion bridging to toddlers' behaviors. Toddlers at highest risk, those with more early behavioral problems from higher demographic-risk families, benefit the most from mothers' emotion talk. Informing parents about the use of emotion talk may be a cost-effective, simple strategy to support at-risk toddlers' social-emotional development and reduce behavioral problems.

  17. Pilot study risk assessment for selected problems at the Nevada Test Site (NTS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, J.I.; Andricevic, R.; Jacobson, R.L.

    1993-06-01

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) is located in southwestern Nevada, about 105 km (65 mi) northwest of the city of Las Vegas. A series of tests was conducted in the late 1950s and early 1960s at or near the NTS to study issues involving plutonium-bearing devices. These tests resulted in the dispersal of about 5 TBq of 239,24O Pu on the surficial soils at the test locations. Additionally, underground tests of nuclear weapons devices have been conducted at the NTS since late 1962; ground water beneath the NTS has been contaminated with radionuclides produced by these tests. These two important problems have been selected for assessment. Regarding the plutonium contamination, because the residual 239 Pu decays slowly (half-life of 24,110 y), these sites could represent a long-term hazard if they are not remediated and if institutional controls are lost. To investigate the magnitude of the potential health risks for this no-remediation case, three basic exposure scenarios were defined that could bring individuals in contact with 239,24O Pu at the sites: (1) a resident living in a subdivision, (2) a resident farmer, and (3) a worker at a commercial facility -- all located at a test site. The predicted cancer risks for the resident farmer were more than a factor of three times higher than the suburban resident at the median risk level, and about a factor of ten greater than the reference worker at a commercial facility. At 100 y from the present, the 5, 50, and 95th percentile risks for the resident farmer at the most contaminated site were 4 x 10 -6 , 6 x 10 -5 , and 5 x 10 -4 , respectively. For the assessment of Pu in surface soil, the principal sources of uncertainty in the estimated risks were population mobility, the relationship between indoor and outdoor contaminant levels, and the dose and risk factors for bone, liver, and lung

  18. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Voice Problems Among Primary School Teachers in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devadas, Usha; Bellur, Rajashekhar; Maruthy, Santosh

    2017-01-01

    Teachers are more prone to develop voice problems (VPs) when compared with other professional voice users. The aim of present study was to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of VPs among primary school teachers in India. Epidemiological cross-sectional survey. Self-reporting questionnaire data were collected from 1082 teachers. Out of 1082 teachers who participated in the present study, 188 teachers reported VPs that account for a prevalence rate of 17.4%. Tired voice after long hours of talking was the most frequently reported symptom, followed by sore/dry throat, strain in voice, neck muscle tension, and difficulty in projecting voice. The adjusted odds ratio values showed number of years of teaching, high background noise levels in the classroom, experiencing psychological stress while teaching classes, improper breath management (holding breath while speaking), poor focus of the tone (clenching jaw/teeth while speaking), upper respiratory tract infection, thyroid problems, and acid reflux as significant risk factors for the development of VPs in the current cohort of teachers. Current results suggest that teachers develop VPs due to multiple risk factors. These factors may be either biological, psychomotor, or environment-related factors. A holistic approach (which could include educating teachers about voice care during their training, and if they develop VP during their career, then managing the VP by taking into consideration different risk factors) addressing all these factors needs to be adopted to prevent VPs in primary school teachers. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Radon in the Gulf Coast area: Potential problem or exaggerated risk?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duex, T.W.

    1994-01-01

    Indoor air pollution from radon has been identified by the EPA as a serious health problem; estimates indicate that radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer (after smoking) and that high levels of radon may cause as many as 20,000 to 40,000 lung cancer deaths per year in the United States. Studies of the potential risk in the Gulf Coast have been sparse. This report summarizes over 7000 previously unreported radon analyses and relates them to geological information to identify possible problem areas for the Gulf Coast region of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. High levels of indoor radon are generally associated with older open-quotes crystallineclose quotes igneous and metamorphic bedrock; thus, most areas of the Gulf Coast are of relatively low risk because they are underlain by Cenozoic sedimentary rocks and unconsolidated deposits. However, some types of sedimentary deposits, such as open-quotes black shaleclose quotes and phosphate-rich rocks, can underlie areas of high risk. According to EPA indoor radon survey results the percentage of houses with screening levels greater than 4 pCi/1 (picocuries per liter) for given states is as follows: Alabama = 0.6%, Louisiana = 0.8%, Mississippi = 2.0%, and Texas = 4.0% (no data available for Florida). The data presented here for the percentage of houses with greater than 4 pCi/1 for given states is as follows: Alabama = 6.1 %, Louisiana = 0.6%, Mississippi = 2.0%, Texas = 1.6%, and Florida = 4.5%. The areas that appear to have the greatest risk are parts of northern Alabama and Mississippi, central Texas, and some areas in Florida

  20. Purposeful selection of variables in logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williams David Keith

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The main problem in many model-building situations is to choose from a large set of covariates those that should be included in the "best" model. A decision to keep a variable in the model might be based on the clinical or statistical significance. There are several variable selection algorithms in existence. Those methods are mechanical and as such carry some limitations. Hosmer and Lemeshow describe a purposeful selection of covariates within which an analyst makes a variable selection decision at each step of the modeling process. Methods In this paper we introduce an algorithm which automates that process. We conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of this algorithm with three well documented variable selection procedures in SAS PROC LOGISTIC: FORWARD, BACKWARD, and STEPWISE. Results We show that the advantage of this approach is when the analyst is interested in risk factor modeling and not just prediction. In addition to significant covariates, this variable selection procedure has the capability of retaining important confounding variables, resulting potentially in a slightly richer model. Application of the macro is further illustrated with the Hosmer and Lemeshow Worchester Heart Attack Study (WHAS data. Conclusion If an analyst is in need of an algorithm that will help guide the retention of significant covariates as well as confounding ones they should consider this macro as an alternative tool.

  1. The Emergence of City Logistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gammelgaard, Britta; Aastrup, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Many city logistics projects in Europe have failed. The purpose of this article is to increase understanding of how city logistics emerge. A better understanding of the complex organizational processes with many actors and stakeholders in city logistics projects may prevent further failu...

  2. Nanomaterials in consumer's goods: the problems of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gmoshinski, I V; Khotimchenko, S A

    2015-01-01

    Nanotechnology and engineered nanomaterials are currently used in wide variety of cosmetic products, while their use in food industry, packaging materials, household chemicals etc. still includes a limited number of items and does not show a significant upward trend. However, the problem of priority nanomaterials associated risks is relevant due to their high production volumes and an constantly growing burden on the environment and population. In accordance with the frequency of use in mass-produced consumer goods, leading priority nanomaterials are silver nanoparticles (NPs) and (by a wide margin) NPs of gold, platinum, and titanium dioxide. Frequency of nanosized silica introduction into food products as a food additive, at the moment, seems to be underestimated, since the use of this nanomaterial is not declared by manufacturers of products and objective control of its content is difficult. Analysis of literature data on toxicological properties of nanomaterials shows that currently accumulated amount of information is sufficient to establish the safe doses of nanosized silver, gold and titanium dioxide. Data have been provided in a series of studies concerning the effect of oral intake of nanosized silica on the condition of laboratory animals, including on the performance of the immune system. The article examines the existing approaches to the assessment of population exposure to priority nanomaterials, characteristics of existing problems and risk management. (paper)

  3. Logistical networking: a global storage network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, Micah; Moore, Terry

    2005-01-01

    The absence of an adequate distributed storage infrastructure for data buffering has become a significant impediment to the flow of work in the wide area, data intensive collaborations that are increasingly characteristic of leading edge research in several fields. One solution to this problem, pioneered under DOE's SciDAC program, is Logistical Networking, which provides a framework for a globally scalable, maximally interoperable storage network based on the Internet Backplane Protocol (IBP). This paper provides a brief overview of the Logistical Networking (LN) architecture, the middleware developed to exploit its value, and a few of the applications that some of research communities have made of it

  4. Common mental health problems in rural-to-urban migrant workers in Shenzhen, China: prevalence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, B L; Liu, T B; Chan, S S M; Jin, D; Hu, C Y; Dai, J; Chiu, H F K

    2018-06-01

    Rural-to-urban migrant workers are a large marginalised population in urban China. Prevalence estimates of common mental health problems (CMHPs) in previous studies varied widely and very few studies have investigated migration-related factors of CMHPs in migrant workers. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and risk factors of CMHPs among Chinese migrant workers. A random sample of 3031 migrant workers of ten manufacturing factories in Shenzhen, China, completed a standardised questionnaire containing socio-demographic and migration-related variables and the Chinese 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). A GHQ-12 score of three or higher was used to denote the presence of CMHPs. The prevalence of CMHPs was 34.4% in Chinese migrant workers. In multiple logistic regression, risk factors for CMHPs included being 16-25 years old (odd ratio [OR] 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28, 2.12), being 26-35 years old (OR 1.36, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.75), low monthly income (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.04, 1.92), poor living condition (OR: 1.76, 95% CI: 1.22, 2.54), physical illness in the past 2 weeks (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.43, 2.05), having worked in many cities (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.03, 1.74), infrequently visiting hometown (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.22, 1.99), poor Mandarin proficiency (OR 1.51, 95%CI 1.13, 2.01), a low level of perceived benefits of migration (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.14, 1.55) and working more than 8 h/day (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.14, 1.70). CMHPs are very prevalent among Chinese migrant workers. Given the large number of Chinese migrant workers, there is an urgent need to address the mental health burden of China's migrant worker population.

  5. Problems Solved, Problems Created: A Critical-Case Analysis of a Public-Private Partnership in Alternative Education for At-Risk Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callet, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to determine what problems are solved and created when two school districts and one charter school partnered with a private company to provide alternative education to at-risk students. The research also aimed to address lessons learned as well as principal advantages and disadvantages of the partnership. Data…

  6. Identifying community risk factors for HIV among South African adolescents with mental health problems: a qualitative study of parental perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagee, Ashraf; Donenberg, Geri; Davids, Alicia; Vermaak, Redwaan; Simbayi, Leickness; Ward, Catherine; Naidoo, Pamela; Mthembu, Jacky

    2014-01-01

    High risk sexual behaviour, alcohol and drug use, and mental health problems combine to yield high levels of HIV-risk behaviour among adolescents with mental health problems. In South Africa, little research has been conducted on parental perspectives of HIV-risk among this population. We conducted a series of focus group discussions with 28 mothers of adolescents receiving services at two mental health clinics in South Africa to identify, from their perspectives, the key community problems facing their children. Participants indicated that HIV remained a serious threat to their adolescent children's well-being, in addition to substance abuse, early sexual debut, and teenage pregnancy. These social problems were mentioned as external to their household dynamics, and thus seemingly beyond the purview of the parent-adolescent relationship. These data have implications for the design of family-based interventions to ameliorate the factors associated with HIV-risk among youth receiving mental health services.

  7. Debates—Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Modeling flood risk as a public policy problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gober, Patricia; Wheater, Howard S.

    2015-06-01

    Socio-hydrology views human activities as endogenous to water system dynamics; it is the interaction between human and biophysical processes that threatens the viability of current water systems through positive feedbacks and unintended consequences. Di Baldassarre et al. implement socio-hydrology as a flood risk problem using the concept of social memory as a vehicle to link human perceptions to flood damage. Their mathematical model has heuristic value in comparing potential flood damages in green versus technological societies. It can also support communities in exploring the potential consequences of policy decisions and evaluating critical policy tradeoffs, for example, between flood protection and economic development. The concept of social memory does not, however, adequately capture the social processes whereby public perceptions are translated into policy action, including the pivotal role played by the media in intensifying or attenuating perceived flood risk, the success of policy entrepreneurs in keeping flood hazard on the public agenda during short windows of opportunity for policy action, and different societal approaches to managing flood risk that derive from cultural values and economic interests. We endorse the value of seeking to capture these dynamics in a simplified conceptual framework, but favor a broader conceptualization of socio-hydrology that includes a knowledge exchange component, including the way modeling insights and scientific results are communicated to floodplain managers. The social processes used to disseminate the products of socio-hydrological research are as important as the research results themselves in determining whether modeling is used for real-world decision making.

  8. Tinnitus and other auditory problems - occupational noise exposure below risk limits may cause inner ear dysfunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindblad, Ann-Cathrine; Rosenhall, Ulf; Olofsson, Åke; Hagerman, Björn

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the investigation was to study if dysfunctions associated to the cochlea or its regulatory system can be found, and possibly explain hearing problems in subjects with normal or near-normal audiograms. The design was a prospective study of subjects recruited from the general population. The included subjects were persons with auditory problems who had normal, or near-normal, pure tone hearing thresholds, who could be included in one of three subgroups: teachers, Education; people working with music, Music; and people with moderate or negligible noise exposure, Other. A fourth group included people with poorer pure tone hearing thresholds and a history of severe occupational noise, Industry. Ntotal = 193. The following hearing tests were used: - pure tone audiometry with Békésy technique, - transient evoked otoacoustic emissions and distortion product otoacoustic emissions, without and with contralateral noise; - psychoacoustical modulation transfer function, - forward masking, - speech recognition in noise, - tinnitus matching. A questionnaire about occupations, noise exposure, stress/anxiety, muscular problems, medication, and heredity, was addressed to the participants. Forward masking results were significantly worse for Education and Industry than for the other groups, possibly associated to the inner hair cell area. Forward masking results were significantly correlated to louder matched tinnitus. For many subjects speech recognition in noise, left ear, did not increase in a normal way when the listening level was increased. Subjects hypersensitive to loud sound had significantly better speech recognition in noise at the lower test level than subjects not hypersensitive. Self-reported stress/anxiety was similar for all groups. In conclusion, hearing dysfunctions were found in subjects with tinnitus and other auditory problems, combined with normal or near-normal pure tone thresholds. The teachers, mostly regarded as a group exposed to noise

  9. Tinnitus and other auditory problems - occupational noise exposure below risk limits may cause inner ear dysfunction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann-Cathrine Lindblad

    Full Text Available The aim of the investigation was to study if dysfunctions associated to the cochlea or its regulatory system can be found, and possibly explain hearing problems in subjects with normal or near-normal audiograms. The design was a prospective study of subjects recruited from the general population. The included subjects were persons with auditory problems who had normal, or near-normal, pure tone hearing thresholds, who could be included in one of three subgroups: teachers, Education; people working with music, Music; and people with moderate or negligible noise exposure, Other. A fourth group included people with poorer pure tone hearing thresholds and a history of severe occupational noise, Industry. Ntotal = 193. The following hearing tests were used: - pure tone audiometry with Békésy technique, - transient evoked otoacoustic emissions and distortion product otoacoustic emissions, without and with contralateral noise; - psychoacoustical modulation transfer function, - forward masking, - speech recognition in noise, - tinnitus matching. A questionnaire about occupations, noise exposure, stress/anxiety, muscular problems, medication, and heredity, was addressed to the participants. Forward masking results were significantly worse for Education and Industry than for the other groups, possibly associated to the inner hair cell area. Forward masking results were significantly correlated to louder matched tinnitus. For many subjects speech recognition in noise, left ear, did not increase in a normal way when the listening level was increased. Subjects hypersensitive to loud sound had significantly better speech recognition in noise at the lower test level than subjects not hypersensitive. Self-reported stress/anxiety was similar for all groups. In conclusion, hearing dysfunctions were found in subjects with tinnitus and other auditory problems, combined with normal or near-normal pure tone thresholds. The teachers, mostly regarded as a group

  10. Competitiveness based on logistic management: a real case study

    OpenAIRE

    García Márquez, Fausto Pedro; Peña García Pardo, Isidro; Ramos M. Nieto, Marta

    2014-01-01

    An efficient and effective logistic system is a strategic objective in any produc- tive business. This paper presents a real case study of a routing problem in a food industry firm. This problem is solved as a Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) using the Neural Net- work (NN) and Tabu Search (TS) algorithms. A customer selection based on a profitability analysis was carried out. The aforementioned algorithms were then applied, leading to a considerable reduction in the total logistic costs. This r...

  11. Logistics centres development in Latvia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Kabashkin

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available In the situation where a large increase in trade and freight transport volumes in the Baltic Sea region (BSR is expected and in which the BSR is facing a major economic restructuring, eff orts to achieve more integrated and sustainable transport and communication links within the BSR are needed. One of these eff orts is the development of logistics centres (LCs and their networking, which will continue to have an impact on improving communication links, spatial planning practices and approaches, logistics chain development and the promotion of sustainable transport modes. These factors will refl ect on logistics processes both in major gateway cities and in remote BSR areas. The importance of logistics systems as a whole is not seen clearly enough. Logistics actors see that logistics operations are not appreciated as much as other fi elds of activity. In addition, logistics centres and the importance of logistics activities to the business life of areas and the employment rate should be brought up better. In the paper main goal and tasks of national approach to LCs development are discussed. Strategic focus of new activities in this area is on the integration of various networks within and between logistics centres in order to improve and develop the quality of logistics networks as well as to spatially widen the networking activities. The key objectives are to integrate the links between logistics centres, ports and other logistics operators in a functional and sustainable way, to promote spatial integration by creating sustainable and integrated approaches to spatial planning of logistics centres and transport infrastructure, to improve ICT-based networking and communication practices of the fi elds of transport and logistics and to increase the competence of logistics centres and associated actors by organising educational and training events. The current activities include, for example, the creation of measures for transport networking and

  12. Research on the optimization of vehicle distribution routes in logistics enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Zhigou; Ma, Mengkun

    2018-01-01

    With the rapid development of modern logistics, the vehicle routing problem has become one of the urgent problems in the logistics industry. The rationality of distribution route planning directly affects the efficiency and quality of logistics distribution. This paper first introduces the definition of logistics distribution and the three methods of optimizing the distribution routes, and then analyzes the current vehicle distribution route by using a representative example, finally puts forward the optimization schemes of logistics distribution route.

  13. The problem of "significant risk": exploring the public health impact of criminalizing HIV non-disclosure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mykhalovskiy, Eric

    2011-09-01

    Using criminal law powers to respond to people living with HIV (PHAs) who expose sexual partners to HIV or transmit the virus to them is a prominent global HIV public policy issue. While there are widespread concerns about the public health impact of HIV-related criminalization, the social science literature on the topic is limited. This article responds to that gap in knowledge by reporting on the results of qualitative research conducted with service providers and PHAs in Canada. The article draws on a studies in the social organization of knowledge perspective and insights from critical criminology and work on the "medico-legal borderland." It investigates the role played by the legal concept of "significant risk" in coordinating criminal law governance and its interface with public health and HIV prevention. In doing so, the article emphasizes that exploring the public health impact of criminalization must move past the criminal law--PHA dyad to address broader social and institutional processes relevant to HIV prevention. Drawing on individual and focus group interviews, this article explores how criminal law governance shapes the activities of providers engaged in HIV prevention counseling, conceptualized as a complex of activities linking clinicians, public health officials, front-line counselors, PHAs, and others. It emphasizes three key findings: (1) the concept of significant risk poses serious problems to risk communication in HIV counseling and contributes to contradictory advice about disclosure obligations; (2) criminalization discourages PHAs' openness about HIV non-disclosure in counseling relationships; and (3) the recontextualization of public health interpretations of significant risk in criminal proceedings can intensify criminalization. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Allocation and Location of Transport Logistics Centres

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mocková

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The facility allocation problem sets out to determine the optimal number of facilities to be opened. Based on multiple criteria evaluation, the optimal location of the facilities is usually solved subsequently. Several considerations, e.g. technical parameters, costs and finance must be taken into account. Economic analysis is carried out on the basis of the specific instance of the problem.Let us assume that the number of potentially located facilities is known. Then the problem of the optimal location of a given number of facilities in a network is referred to as the facility location problem. The solution to the problem is a set of facilities optimally located in an area such that this area is fully covered by the required services that the facilities provide. An example of a real-life problem of this type is the location of logistics centers. 

  15. Childhood Maltreatment, Emotional Lability, and Alcohol Problems in Young Adults At-Risk for ADHD: Testing Moderation and Moderated Moderation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunford, Nóra; Wymbs, Brian T; Dawson, Anne E; Shorey, Ryan C

    2017-01-01

    Childhood maltreatment and alcohol problems are common among young adults with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). However, little is known about the degree to which maltreatment and alcohol problems are associated; potential pertinent mediating or moderating mechanisms, such as emotional lability; and whether this association varies by sex. We examined, in a sample of adults at risk for ADHD (N = 122, 37% male), the association between childhood maltreatment and alcohol problems, whether emotional lability mediated or moderated this association, and whether either role of emotional lability differed between men and women. Emotional lability moderated the association between emotional neglect and alcohol problems; maltreatment increased risk for alcohol problems for those scoring high tovery high on emotional lability, but not for those with very low-moderate levels. The association between emotional abuse and alcohol problems depended both on emotional lability and sex; emotional abuse decreased the risk for alcohol problems among men very low/low on emotional lability, but not for men who were moderate to very high on emotional lability, or for women. These findings have implications for the way in which targeting maltreatment and emotional lability may be incorporated into prevention and intervention programs to prevent alcohol problems among men and women at risk for ADHD.

  16. Eating Problems and Their Risk Factors: A 7-Year Longitudinal Study of a Population Sample of Norwegian Adolescent Girls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansi, Juliska; Wichstrom, Lars; Bergman, Lars R.

    2005-01-01

    The longitudinal stability of eating problems and their relationships to risk factors were investigated in a representative population sample of 623 Norwegian girls aged 13-14 followed over 7 years (3 time points). Three eating problem symptoms were measured: Restriction, Bulimia-food preoccupation, and Diet, all taken from the 12-item Eating…

  17. Risk score for predicting adolescent mental health problems among children using parental report only : the TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burger, Huibert; Boks, Marco P.; Hartman, Catharina A.; Aukes, Maartje F.; Verhulst, Frank C.; Ormel, Johan; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To construct a risk score for adolescent mental health problems among children, using parental data only and without potentially stigmatizing mental health items. METHODS: We prospectively derived a prediction model for mental health problems at age 16 using data from parent report on

  18. Development and Validation of a POSIT-Short Form: Screening for Problem Behaviors among Adolescents at Risk for Substance Use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danseco, Evangeline R.; Marques, Paul R.

    2002-01-01

    The Problem-Oriented Screening Instrument for Teenagers (POSIT) screens for multiple problems among adolescents at risk for substance use. A shortened version of the POSIT was developed, using factor analysis, and correlational and reliability analyses. The POSIT-SF shows potential for a reliable and cost-efficient screen for youth with substance…

  19. Risk for Suicidal Ideation and Suicide Attempts Associated with Co-Occurring Depression and Conduct Problems in Early Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vander Stoep, Ann; Adrian, Molly; Mc Cauley, Elizabeth; Crowell, Sheila E.; Stone, Andrea; Flynn, Cynthia

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the early manifestation of co-occurring depression and conduct problems as a predictor of heightened risk for later suicidal ideation and behavior in a community sample of 521 adolescents. Self-reported symptoms of depression and conduct problems were evaluated in early 6th grade. Suicidal thoughts and behaviors were…

  20. AN INTERACTIVE LOGISTICS CENTRE INFORMATION INTEGRATION SYSTEM USING VIRTUAL REALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hong

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The logistics industry plays a very important role in the operation of modern cities. Meanwhile, the development of logistics industry has derived various problems that are urgent to be solved, such as the safety of logistics products. This paper combines the study of logistics industry traceability and logistics centre environment safety supervision with virtual reality technology, creates an interactive logistics centre information integration system. The proposed system utilizes the immerse characteristic of virtual reality, to simulate the real logistics centre scene distinctly, which can make operation staff conduct safety supervision training at any time without regional restrictions. On the one hand, a large number of sensor data can be used to simulate a variety of disaster emergency situations. On the other hand, collecting personnel operation data, to analyse the improper operation, which can improve the training efficiency greatly.

  1. An Interactive Logistics Centre Information Integration System Using Virtual Reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, S.; Mao, B.

    2018-04-01

    The logistics industry plays a very important role in the operation of modern cities. Meanwhile, the development of logistics industry has derived various problems that are urgent to be solved, such as the safety of logistics products. This paper combines the study of logistics industry traceability and logistics centre environment safety supervision with virtual reality technology, creates an interactive logistics centre information integration system. The proposed system utilizes the immerse characteristic of virtual reality, to simulate the real logistics centre scene distinctly, which can make operation staff conduct safety supervision training at any time without regional restrictions. On the one hand, a large number of sensor data can be used to simulate a variety of disaster emergency situations. On the other hand, collecting personnel operation data, to analyse the improper operation, which can improve the training efficiency greatly.

  2. Pilot study risk assessment for selected problems at the Nevada Test Site (NTS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels, J.I. [ed.; Anspaugh, L.R.; Bogen, K.T.; Daniels, J.I.; Layton, D.W.; Straume, T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Andricevic, R.; Jacobson, R.L. [Nevada Univ., Las Vegas, NV (United States). Water Resources Center; Meinhold, A.F.; Holtzman, S.; Morris, S.C.; Hamilton, L.D. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1993-06-01

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) is located in southwestern Nevada, about 105 km (65 mi) northwest of the city of Las Vegas. A series of tests was conducted in the late 1950s and early 1960s at or near the NTS to study issues involving plutonium-bearing devices. These tests resulted in the dispersal of about 5 TBq of {sup 239,24O}Pu on the surficial soils at the test locations. Additionally, underground tests of nuclear weapons devices have been conducted at the NTS since late 1962; ground water beneath the NTS has been contaminated with radionuclides produced by these tests. These two important problems have been selected for assessment. Regarding the plutonium contamination, because the residual {sup 239}Pu decays slowly (half-life of 24,110 y), these sites could represent a long-term hazard if they are not remediated and if institutional controls are lost. To investigate the magnitude of the potential health risks for this no-remediation case, three basic exposure scenarios were defined that could bring individuals in contact with {sup 239,24O}Pu at the sites: (1) a resident living in a subdivision, (2) a resident farmer, and (3) a worker at a commercial facility -- all located at a test site. The predicted cancer risks for the resident farmer were more than a factor of three times higher than the suburban resident at the median risk level, and about a factor of ten greater than the reference worker at a commercial facility. At 100 y from the present, the 5, 50, and 95th percentile risks for the resident farmer at the most contaminated site were 4 x 10{sup {minus}6}, 6 x 10{sup {minus}5}, and 5 x 10{sup {minus}4}, respectively. For the assessment of Pu in surface soil, the principal sources of uncertainty in the estimated risks were population mobility, the relationship between indoor and outdoor contaminant levels, and the dose and risk factors for bone, liver, and lung.

  3. Pilot study risk assessment for selected problems at the Nevada Test Site (NTS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels, J.I. (ed.)

    1993-06-01

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) is located in southwestern Nevada, about 105 km (65 mi) northwest of the city of Las Vegas. A series of tests was conducted in the late 1950s and early 1960s at or near the NTS to study issues involving plutonium-bearing devices. These tests resulted in the dispersal of about 5 TBq of [sup 239,24O]Pu on the surficial soils at the test locations. Additionally, underground tests of nuclear weapons devices have been conducted at the NTS since late 1962; ground water beneath the NTS has been contaminated with radionuclides produced by these tests. These two important problems have been selected for assessment. Regarding the plutonium contamination, because the residual [sup 239]Pu decays slowly (half-life of 24,110 y), these sites could represent a long-term hazard if they are not remediated and if institutional controls are lost. To investigate the magnitude of the potential health risks for this no-remediation case, three basic exposure scenarios were defined that could bring individuals in contact with [sup 239,24O]Pu at the sites: (1) a resident living in a subdivision, (2) a resident farmer, and (3) a worker at a commercial facility -- all located at a test site. The predicted cancer risks for the resident farmer were more than a factor of three times higher than the suburban resident at the median risk level, and about a factor of ten greater than the reference worker at a commercial facility. At 100 y from the present, the 5, 50, and 95th percentile risks for the resident farmer at the most contaminated site were 4 x 10[sup [minus]6], 6 x 10[sup [minus]5], and 5 x 10[sup [minus]4], respectively. For the assessment of Pu in surface soil, the principal sources of uncertainty in the estimated risks were population mobility, the relationship between indoor and outdoor contaminant levels, and the dose and risk factors for bone, liver, and lung.

  4. The Emergence of City Logistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gammelgaard, Britta

    2015-01-01

    is therefore to increase understanding of how city logistics emerge, and secondarily, to investigate whether such processes can be managed at all. Design/methodology/approach: – A paradigm shift in urban planning creates new ways of involving stakeholders in new sustainability measures such as city logistics...... dialectic forces were at play. City logistics schemes are still in an innovation phase. The biggest challenge in managing a process toward city logistics is to convince the many public and private stakeholders of their mutual interest and goals. Research limitations/implications: – Urban goods transport...... city logistics projects may fail. Thereby, cities become more environmentally and socially sustainable. Originality/value: – Insights into a city logistics project from a change management perspective has not previously been reported in literature....

  5. Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

    2014-08-01

    Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions.

  6. METHODS FOR DETERMINATION AND OPTIMIZATION OF LOGISTICS COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela STET

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper is dealing with the problems of logistics costs, highlighting some methods for estimation and determination of specific costs for different transport modes in freight distribution. There are highlighted, besides costs of transports, the other costs in supply chain, as well as costing methods used in logistics activities. In this context, there are also revealed some optimization means of transport costs in logistics chain.

  7. METHODS FOR DETERMINATION AND OPTIMIZATION OF LOGISTICS COSTS

    OpenAIRE

    Mihaela STET

    2016-01-01

    The paper is dealing with the problems of logistics costs, highlighting some methods for estimation and determination of specific costs for different transport modes in freight distribution. There are highlighted, besides costs of transports, the other costs in supply chain, as well as costing methods used in logistics activities. In this context, there are also revealed some optimization means of transport costs in logistics chain.

  8. Radiation accidents with global consequences for the population. Problems of risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasilev, G.; Doncheva, B.; Stoilova, S.; Miloslavov, V.; Tsenova, T.; Novkirishki, V.

    1987-01-01

    The theoretical problems concerning the delayed impacts as a result of considerable radiation accidents are discussed. The attention is paid to the maximum individual doses which are relatively low but many people are affected. In these cases, the risk evaluation is based on the cancerogenesis, genetic and teratogenetic consequences among the concerned population. The main equation of the linear threshold-free model 'dose effect' is subjected to analysis. Considering the real prognostic importance of this equation the following recommendations are made: further observation on epidemic diseases; investigation of teratogenetic consequences in connection with the radiation doses obtained during the antenatal development; radiation-hygienic standardization of the oral absorbtion of radionuclides for short and long periods of time; effective equivalent dose determination according to the irradiated organ or tissue (mammary glands, lungs, red marrow, gonads, skin); necessity of national system for in time announcement of radiation accidents, as well as suitable control of the internal and the external irradiation

  9. Reliability of Instruments Measuring At-Risk and Problem Gambling Among Young Individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edgren, Robert; Castrén, Sari; Mäkelä, Marjukka

    2016-01-01

    This review aims to clarify which instruments measuring at-risk and problem gambling (ARPG) among youth are reliable and valid in light of reported estimates of internal consistency, classification accuracy, and psychometric properties. A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Medline, and Psyc......Info covering the years 2009–2015. In total, 50 original research articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria: target age under 29 years, using an instrument designed for youth, and reporting a reliability estimate. Articles were evaluated with the revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool....... Reliability estimates were reported for five ARPG instruments. Most studies (66%) evaluated the South Oaks Gambling Screen Revised for Adolescents. The Gambling Addictive Behavior Scale for Adolescents was the only novel instrument. In general, the evaluation of instrument reliability was superficial. Despite...

  10. Innovative Activity in the Industry of Ukraine: Problems, Risks, Activization Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pidorycheva, I.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The general characteristic of a condition of innovative activity of the industrial enterprises in Ukraine and positive tendencies of the last years in this plane are shined. The key problems and demotivating factors of increase of interest of the industry in innovations are analyzed. Risks of preservation of available tendencies in the sphere of innovative and technological development of the industry, which can lead to preservation of outdated structure of national production are defined. Priorities and medium-term measures for overcoming of available restrictions in realization of new model of economic development, at the heart of which — investments into the innovative activity, new industrialization and industrial updating of the country are offered.

  11. Analytic Bayesian solution of the two-stage poisson-type problem in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frohner, F.H.

    1985-01-01

    The basic purpose of probabilistic risk analysis is to make inferences about the probabilities of various postulated events, with an account of all relevant information such as prior knowledge and operating experience with the specific system under study, as well as experience with other similar systems. Estimation of the failure rate of a Poisson-type system leads to an especially simple Bayesian solution in closed form if the prior probabilty implied by the invariance properties of the problem is properly taken into account. This basic simplicity persists if a more realistic prior, representing order of magnitude knowledge of the rate parameter, is employed instead. Moreover, the more realistic prior allows direct incorporation of experience gained from other similar systems, without need to postulate a statistical model for an underlying ensemble. The analytic formalism is applied to actual nuclear reactor data

  12. Outsourcing Operational Logistics: Buyer Beware

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-05-16

    This logistics system takes far too many people to conduct support missions and does not provide the desired customer performance in terms of...FINAL 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER OUTSOURCING OPERATIONAL LOGISTICS: BUYER BEWARE (U) 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c...Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) 1 (Unclassified Paper) NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Newport, R.I. OUTSOURCING OPERATIONAL LOGISTICS: BUYER BEWARE By LAMONT WOODY Lieutenant

  13. POLITICAL RISK ON THE FINANCIAL MARKET The problem of adequate scientific assessment of business operations - the naivety of economists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leszek Dziawgo

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the significant problems of a modern economy and economics is political risk. A destructive influence of politics on the financial market cannot be ignored. It is necessary to indicate some selected specific problems of the financial market connected with politics in the area of: public finance (including EU, monetary policy and capital market. Nowadays, the scale and dynamics of political interference in the economy and finance leads to the problem of rationality in business activities. Moreover, many hidden political factors change the political risk into immeasurable political uncertainty.

  14. Logistics Reduction: Heat Melt Compactor

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Logistics Reduction (LR) project Heat Melt Compactor (HMC) technology is a waste management technology. Currently, there are...

  15. Situational Awareness and Logistics Division

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Volpe's Situational Awareness and Logistics Division researches, develops, implements, and analyzes advanced systems to protect, enhance, and ensure resilienceof the...

  16. In-plant logistics optimalization

    OpenAIRE

    Maroušek, Jan

    2008-01-01

    In a theoretical part of this work there is introduced a general view on logistics and its development, than a view on creating value for customer, basics of lean production, lean thinking and following methods as Six Sigma and Value Stream Mapping. At the end of the theoretical part there is mentioned outsourcing of logistics services and view on relationship between logistics provider and a client. In a practical part there is introduced a project of in-plant logistics optimalization in a f...

  17. STUDY OF THE STATE OF LOGISTICS IN KAZAKHSTAN: PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT OF TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS CENTRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanarys RAIMBEKOV

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The creation and development of Kazakhstan as a trade, logistics and business hub of the region is on the agenda of the Government of Kazakhstan. To achieve this, central and local governments, private businesses invest in new infrastructure projects in logistics. The article investigates the problems of modern logistics infrastructure formation in the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The survey results show that the attractiveness of Kazakhstan as a transport and logistics hub will depend on the state of logistics infrastructure, service quality, and technology used. Further development will largely depend on its ability to diversify and create logistics facilities with high added value. Priorities and the need for multi-level transport logistic centres have been defined; their development in domestic, export and transit directions has been described, both at the national and international levels and at the enterprise level as well.

  18. Mother-Youth Acculturation Gaps and Health-Risking/Emotional Problems among Latin-American Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiesner, Margit; Arbona, Consuelo; Capaldi, Deborah M; Kim, Hyoun K; Kaplan, Charles D

    2015-07-20

    Second-generation Latin-American adolescents tend to show higher levels of various health-risking behaviors and emotional problems than first-generation Latin-American adolescents. This cross-sectional study of 40 mother-adolescent dyads examined the association of mother-youth acculturation gaps to youth adjustment problems. Intergenerational acculturation gaps were assessed as a bidimensional self-report component and a novel observational measurement component. The Latin-American adolescents were predominantly second-generation of Mexican descent (M age = 13.42 years, SD = 0.55). Most of the mothers were born in Mexico (M age = 39.18 years, SD = 5.17). Data were collected from mothers, adolescents, and coders, using questionnaires, structured interviews, and videotaped mother-youth interaction tasks. Findings revealed generally weak support for the acculturation gap-distress hypothesis. In addition, stronger relative adherence to their heritage culture by the adolescents was significantly (p acculturation processes. Mother-youth acculturation gaps in orientation to the heritage culture were the most salient dimension, changing the focus on the original formulation of the acculturation gap-distress hypothesis.

  19. HACCP-based quality risk management approach to udder health problems on dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noordhuizen, Jptm; Cannas da Silva, J

    2009-04-01

    Against the background of prevailing udder health problems on dairy farms, this paper discusses a new approach to mastitis control. Current udder health control programmes, such as the 'five-point plan', are highlighted and their drawbacks indicated. The concept and principles of hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP) are introduced. The eight core elements of this concept are dealt with by using the example of a dairy herd with a mastitis problem due to Staphylococcus aureus. The various steps to be taken in the development of a HACCP-based quality risk management programme are illustrated through the application of core elements. Finally, it is shown that the HACCP key words, structure, organisation, planning, communication and formalisation; which do not frequently appear in conventional herd health and production management programmes can contribute to better udder health. The role of the veterinarian can be paramount and of added value, if he/she is willing to invest in new knowledge and skills, such as the HACCP concept, farm economics, animal nutrition, and particularly the role of coach to the dairy farmer in the implementation of preventative measures in relation to udder health.

  20. HACCP-based quality risk management approach to udder health problems on dairy farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noordhuizen JPTM

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Against the background of prevailing udder health problems on dairy farms, this paper discusses a new approach to mastitis control. Current udder health control programmes, such as the 'five-point plan', are highlighted and their drawbacks indicated. The concept and principles of hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP are introduced. The eight core elements of this concept are dealt with by using the example of a dairy herd with a mastitis problem due to Staphylococcus aureus. The various steps to be taken in the development of a HACCP-based quality risk management programme are illustrated through the application of core elements. Finally, it is shown that the HACCP key words, structure, organisation, planning, communication and formalisation; which do not frequently appear in conventional herd health and production management programmes can contribute to better udder health. The role of the veterinarian can be paramount and of added value, if he/she is willing to invest in new knowledge and skills, such as the HACCP concept, farm economics, animal nutrition, and particularly the role of coach to the dairy farmer in the implementation of preventative measures in relation to udder health.

  1. Attitudes, Risk Behavior, and Noise Exposure among Young Adults with Hearing Problems: Identifying a Typology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Abby

    2017-11-01

    This study explored attitudes toward leisure noise, use of hearing protection, and perceived susceptibility to leisure-noise damage in young adults with hearing problems. Twelve participants aged between 18 and 35 years took part in a semistructured interview. Data were analyzed using framework analysis. The results showed that a positive attitude to noise, a passion for loud music, a lack of knowledge of the consequences of noise damage, and perceived low risk of hearing problems were associated with people not using earplugs. The aesthetics, comfort, perceived effects on music quality and attitude of others were all barriers to earplug use. Of those who had used earplugs, previous hearing-related symptoms and concern about future hearing damage were the main motivators for use. Four types of people were identified to describe the variation in attitudes and behaviors: those who had no change in behavior or concern about damage; those who were concerned and used earplugs; those who were concerned and avoided loud venues; and those who were concerned about communication difficulties only. Considering the wide variability, it may be more effective to shift attention from trying to change individual attitudes and behaviors to considering systemic changes to protect hearing, through ensuring the music industry and relevant authorities take greater responsibility.

  2. A note on Verhulst's logistic equation and related logistic maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez, M Ranferi; Reyes, M A; Rosu, H C

    2010-01-01

    We consider the Verhulst logistic equation and a couple of forms of the corresponding logistic maps. For the case of the logistic equation we show that using the general Riccati solution only changes the initial conditions of the equation. Next, we consider two forms of corresponding logistic maps reporting the following results. For the map x n+1 = rx n (1 - x n ) we propose a new way to write the solution for r = -2 which allows better precision of the iterative terms, while for the map x n+1 - x n = rx n (1 - x n+1 ) we show that it behaves identically to the logistic equation from the standpoint of the general Riccati solution, which is also provided herein for any value of the parameter r.

  3. Risk factors for low birth weight according to the multiple logistic regression model. A retrospective cohort study in José María Morelos municipality, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco Monsreal, José; Tun Cobos, Miriam Del Ruby; Hernández Gómez, José Ricardo; Serralta Peraza, Lidia Esther Del Socorro

    2018-01-17

    Low birth weight has been an enigma for science over time. There have been many researches on its causes and its effects. Low birth weight is an indicator that predicts the probability of a child surviving. In fact, there is an exponential relationship between weight deficit, gestational age, and perinatal mortality. Multiple logistic regression is one of the most expressive and versatile statistical instruments available for the analysis of data in both clinical and epidemiology settings, as well as in public health. To assess in a multivariate fashion the importance of 17 independent variables in low birth weight (dependent variable) of children born in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Analytical observational epidemiological cohort study with retrospective temporality. Births that met the inclusion criteria occurred in the "Hospital Integral Jose Maria Morelos" of the Ministry of Health corresponding to the Maya municipality of Jose Maria Morelos during the period from August 1, 2014 to July 31, 2015. The total number of newborns recorded was 1,147; 84 of which (7.32%) had low birth weight. To estimate the independent association between the explanatory variables (potential risk factors) and the response variable, a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software. In ascending numerical order values of odds ratio > 1 indicated the positive contribution of explanatory variables or possible risk factors: "unmarried" marital status (1.076, 95% confidence interval: 0.550 to 2.104); age at menarche ≤ 12 years (1.08, 95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 1.84); history of abortion(s) (1.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.44 to 2.93); maternal weight < 50 kg (1.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 2.76); number of prenatal consultations ≤ 5 (1.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.94 to 3.66); maternal age ≥ 36 years (3.5, 95% confidence interval: 0.40 to 30.47); maternal age ≤ 19 years (3

  4. Nutritional problems in older adults with Alzheimer’s disease: Risk of malnutrition and sarcopenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle Rodrigues LECHETA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective Understand the nutritional problems and detect the presence of sarcopenia in older adults with Alzheimer’s disease. Methods Descriptive cross-sectional study carried out among elderly patients with Alzheimer’s disease receiving care at the Unidade de Saúde de Atenção ao Idoso (Elderly Care Unit in a capital city in Southern Brazil between November 2010 and July 2011. The Clinical Dementia Rating scale was used for the evaluation of staging severity of dementia. Participants’ nutritional status was classified using The Mini Nutritional Assessment. The following tests were used to diagnose sarcopenia: bioelectrical impedance, hand grip strength, and the Timed Up and Go test. Anthropometric measurements and laboratory tests (hemoglobin, lymphocytes, serum albumin, and total cholesterol were performed. Results Ninety-six older adults (mean age of 78 years were evaluated. It was observed prevalence of mild Alzheimer’s disease in 54.2% of the participants; 55.2% were at risk of malnutrition; unintentional weight loss was observed in 64.6%, 55.3% had lower number of lymphocytes, and 43.7% had severe sarcopenia. Conclusion The prevalence of risk of malnutrition and sarcopenia is high among older adults with Alzheimer’s disease. Future studies should focus on the evaluation of nutritional interventions aimed at maintaining the nutritional status and muscle mass in these individuals.

  5. Research Directions in Information Systems for Humanitarian Logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sangiamkul, Esther; van Hillegersberg, Jos

    2011-01-01

    This article systematically reviews the literature on using IT (Information Technology) in humanitarian logistics focusing on disaster relief operations. We first discuss problems in humanitarian relief logistics. We then identify the stage and disaster type for each article as well as the article’s

  6. Outsourcing Operational Logistics: Buyer Beware

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woody, Lamont

    2003-01-01

    One of the key tasks from U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld to his Service Chiefs is to reduce DOD's overall logistic cost and footprint while transforming the warfighter-to-logistics (tooth-to-tail) force structure...

  7. Logistic Regression: Concept and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cokluk, Omay

    2010-01-01

    The main focus of logistic regression analysis is classification of individuals in different groups. The aim of the present study is to explain basic concepts and processes of binary logistic regression analysis intended to determine the combination of independent variables which best explain the membership in certain groups called dichotomous…

  8. Information Logistics Research report 2

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, A.; Hajdasinski, A.K.; Willems, J.

    2009-01-01

    The goal of this research report is to further explore the concept of Information Logistics (IL), which refers to the usage and dispatch of information and methods of logistics able to support those processes. This report is based upon 6 questions that examine IL in organizations, healthcare

  9. Transport, logistics and the region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Langen, de P.W.

    2010-01-01

    Cargo transport and logistics have a huge impact on sustainable (regional) economic development. Two broad (policy) challenges are center stage: enhancing co-location of logistics activities and improving efficiency in intermodal transport chains. Academic research can provide relevant insights for

  10. Interpersonal Problem-Solving Skills, Executive Function and Learning Potential in Preadolescents with High/Low Family Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mata, Sara; Gómez-Pérez, M Mar; Molinero, Clara; Calero, M Dolores

    2017-10-30

    Situations generated by high family risk have a negative effect on personal development, especially during preadolescence. Growing up in the presence of risk factors can lead to negative consequences on mental health or on school performance. The objective of this study focuses on individual factors related to this phenomenon during preadolescence. Specifically, we seek to establish whether level of family risk (high vs. low risk) is related to interpersonal problem-solving skills, executive function and learning potential in a sample of preadolescents controlling age, sex, total IQ, verbal comprehension ability and the classroom influences. The participants were 40 children, 23 boys and 17 girls between the ages of 7 and 12, twenty of which had a record on file with the Social and Childhood Protection Services of Information deleted to maintain the integrity of the review process, and therefore, a high family risk situation. The other 20 participants had a low family risk situation. Results show that the preadolescents from high family risk performed worse on interpersonal solving-problem skills and executive function (p family risk. These results highlight the negative effects of high family risk situation in preadolescents and give value of taking into account protective factors such as learning potential when assessing preadolescents from high family risk.

  11. Actual problems of exposure risk assessment of finely dispersed aerosols and aerosols of nanoparticles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Sevalnev

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the study – analysis of the scientific literature on generalization of the data on domestic and foreign experience in risk assessment due to exposure to finely dispersed aerosols and aerosols of nanoparticles (NPs. The article summarizes data of long-term studies on the effect of nanomaterials and nanoparticles on the quality of human habitat and health. The domestic and foreign experience of harm health assessment, safety of new types of nanomaterials for the environment and work-related conditions have been analyzed. There are numerous studies of foreign and domestic scientists on the biological activity of nanoparticles and their effect on experimental animals, namely, on the specificity of their effect on various organs and systems of the body. Classification of nanomaterials, depending on their chemical composition, is presented. Attention is paid to the problems of nanosafety, namely, to the evaluation of nanotoxicity of substances and to the definition of the concept of a “dose” for nanoparticles. The data on the presence of finely dispersed and ultra-fine particles in the atmospheric air, which increase risk of respiratory system diseases among residents of large megacities, is given. There is special importance on assessing work conditions and occupational risks in production and use of materials which contain nanoparticles as well as in production processes with formation of the fine dust and nanoparticles indicated in the article. Due to the lack of a clear system for assessing health risks related to the action of nanoparticles, lack of common criteria of harmfulness and maximum allowable concentrations for most nanoparticles and uniform methods of their control, it is suggested to strictly adhere to protective measures in contact with nanomaterials and active improvement of nanosecurity measures. Conclusions. High toxicity and health hazards of finely dispersed and ultra-fine particles confirm need to control their

  12. 77 FR 39662 - Hazardous Materials; Reverse Logistics (RRR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-05

    ... logistics providers estimate that up to 7% of an enterprise's gross sales are return costs. The third-party... logistic shipments for hazardous materials? III. Issues To Be Considered As previously noted, the purpose... documentation costs to develop and maintain risk assessments and operational procedures? If so, what is a fair...

  13. High-risk versus low-risk football game weekends: differences in problem drinking and alcohol-related consequences on college campuses in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champion, Heather; Blocker, Jill N; Buettner, Cynthia K; Martin, Barbara A; Parries, Maria; Mccoy, Thomas P; Mitra, Ananda; Andrews, David W; Rhodes, Scott D

    2009-01-01

    Collegiate football games provide multiple social opportunities for alcohol use by students over the course of the weekend. The goal of this study was to examine alcohol use and alcohol-related consequences on football game weekends to determine differences based on characteristics of the game. A random sample of students from two large, public universities in the United States completed a survey on the Sunday-Friday following a high-risk weekend (HRW, important, home game) and low-risk weekend (LRW, no home game or game of importance) (N = 3,238 total). The survey measured the number of days students drank (0-3) and got drunk (0-3) over the weekend and whether 1+ consequences were experienced due to one's own drinking (yes/no) and due to others' drinking (yes/no). Ordinal logistic regression analyses revealed greater odds of drinking alcohol (OR = 1.70, CI = 1.46-1.97) and getting drunk (OR = 1.49, CI = 1.27-1.76) on HRW versus LRW. Logistic regression analyses revealed greater odds of experiencing 1+ consequences as a result of one's own drinking (OR = 1.38, CI = 1.16-1.63) and experiencing 1+ consequences as a result of others' drinking (OR = 1.52, CI = 1.30-1.78) on HRW versus LRW. These findings suggest that additional prevention efforts aimed at reducing risky drinking are needed over HRW and have implications for campus administrators, law enforcement, and substance abuse program coordinators.

  14. A problem-solving intervention for cardiovascular disease risk reduction in veterans: Protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieuwsma, Jason A; Wray, Laura O; Voils, Corrine I; Gierisch, Jennifer M; Dundon, Margaret; Coffman, Cynthia J; Jackson, George L; Merwin, Rhonda; Vair, Christina; Juntilla, Karen; White-Clark, Courtney; Jeffreys, Amy S; Harris, Amy; Owings, Michael; Marr, Johnpatrick; Edelman, David

    2017-09-01

    Health behaviors related to diet, tobacco usage, physical activity, medication adherence, and alcohol use are highly determinative of risk for developing cardiovascular disease. This paper describes a study protocol to evaluate a problem-solving intervention that aims to help patients at risk for developing cardiovascular disease address barriers to adopting positive health behaviors in order to reduce cardiovascular risk. Eligible patients are adults enrolled in Veterans Affairs (VA) health care who have not experienced a cardiovascular event but are at elevated risk based on their Framingham Risk Score (FRS). Participants in this two-site study are randomized to either the intervention or care as usual, with a target of 400 participants. The study intervention, Healthy Living Problem-Solving (HELPS), consists of six group sessions conducted approximately monthly interspersed with individualized coaching calls to help participants apply problem-solving principles. The primary outcome is FRS, analyzed at the beginning and end of the study intervention (6months). Participants also complete measures of physical activity, caloric intake, self-efficacy, group cohesion, problem-solving capacities, and demographic characteristics. Results of this trial will inform behavioral interventions to change health behaviors in those at risk for cardiovascular disease and other health conditions. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01838226. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Sparse logistic principal components analysis for binary data

    KAUST Repository

    Lee, Seokho; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Hu, Jianhua

    2010-01-01

    with a criterion function motivated from a penalized Bernoulli likelihood. A Majorization-Minimization algorithm is developed to efficiently solve the optimization problem. The effectiveness of the proposed sparse logistic PCA method is illustrated

  16. Optimisation of transport processes in city logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The problem of the rationalization of the flow of people and goods in urban areas is discussed in the presented paper. Due to the increasing traffic congestion, this is one of the most important problems of the effective city management, especially in line with the principles of the sustainable development. The paper presents local conditionings for urban agglomeration of Pozna?, with particular attention paid to difficulties of the distribution of goods in urban areas. The available sources for obtaining the good practice for local authorities are presented, e.g. European projects like SUGAR Project (Sustainable Urban Goods Logistics Achieved by Regional and local policies.

  17. Macroeconomic environment during infancy as a possible risk factor for adolescent behavioral problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanathan, Seethalakshmi; Balasubramanian, Natarajan; Krishnadas, Rajeev

    2013-02-01

    CONTEXT Economic difficulties at the individual level can lead to a number of behavioral problems, including substance abuse and delinquent behaviors. OBJECTIVE To examine the influence of a nationwide adverse economic environment during infancy, specifically, the high unemployment rates during and after the 1980 and 1981-1982 recessions, on rates of subsequent adolescent substance use and delinquent behaviors. DESIGN We used data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 and estimated logit regressions to examine the effect of changes in unemployment rates during infancy on the incidence of adolescent behavioral problems, controlling for known youth, family, and environmental risk factors. SETTING Adolescents living in the United States in 1997. PARTICIPANTS Nationally representative sample of 8984 adolescents born from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 1984. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Probability of engaging in substance use (marijuana, smoking, alcohol, and hard [ie, illegal] drugs) and delinquent behaviors (arrest, handgun use, gang affiliation, petty and major theft, property destruction, and assaultive behavior). RESULTS Exposure to a 1% deviation from mean regional unemployment rates at the age of 1 year was associated with an increase in the odds ratios of engaging in marijuana use (1.09 [95% CI, 1.04-1.14]), smoking (1.07 [1.03-1.11]), alcohol use (1.06 [1.02-1.10]), arrest (1.17 [1.09-1.25]), gang affiliation (1.09 [1.00-1.19]), and petty (1.06 [1.01-1.10]) and major theft (1.11 [1.05-1.18]). No significant associations were noted with use of hard drugs, property destruction, and assaultive behavior. CONCLUSIONS The macroeconomic environment during infancy can have serious long-term effects on substance use and delinquent behavior. These potential long-term effects can play an important role in policy making for adolescent mental health care.

  18. Network Design in Reverse Logistics: A Quantitative Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krikke, H.R.; Kooij, E.J.; Schuur, Peter; Speranza, M. Grazia; Stähly, Paul

    1999-01-01

    The introduction of (extended) producer responsibility forces Original Equipment Manufacturers to solve entirely new managerial problems. One of the issues concerns the physical design of the reverse logistic network, which is a problem that fits into the class of facility-location problems. Since

  19. Improved Collaborative Transport Planning at Dutch Logistics Service Provider Fritom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buijs, Paul; Lopez Alvarez, Jose Alejandro; Veenstra, Marjolein; Roodbergen, Kees Jan

    2016-01-01

    We study the collaborative transport planning for two autonomous business units of Fritom, a Dutch logistics service provider. This difficult planning problem does not fit any existing type of vehicle routing problem proposed in the academic literature; therefore, we define a new problem class, the

  20. 8th Workshop on Logistics and Supply Chain Management

    CERN Document Server

    Kaminsky, Phil; Müller, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    This contributed volume presents selected research papers from the 8th workshop on Logistics and Supply Chain Management, which was held in October 2013 in Berkeley, California. It focuses on the topical issue of quantitative approaches in logistics and supply chain management, mainly covering facility location and location routing; vehicle routing and scheduling; courier, express and parcel service network design; healthcare logistics as well as logistics risk management. The target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners in the field, but the book will also be beneficial to graduate students.

  1. Correlation between Novel Potential Indoor Risk Factors and Frequency of Doctor's Visit for Respiratory Problem in Taiwan's Tropical Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Hao Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: With a global rising trend in prevalence of allergic diseases, more attention has been paid to investigation of environmental risk factors. Many risk factors have so far been identified. However, novel risk factors specific to Taiwanese environment and lifestyle were still relatively unknown. Objective: To investigate the potential effects of a number of little-known indoor risk factors on the frequency of doctor's visit for respiratory problems in context of Taiwanese environment and lifestyle. Methods: A cross-sectional, population-based study was performed on a 861 participants around Kaohsiung area, Taiwan. Survey investigation was employed to assess the household environment and the frequency of doctor's visit for respiratory problems. Results: Participants who performed “daily cleaning” was shown to have a significantly (p=0.007 higher mean number of doctor's visits in comparison to those who did not. Similar observation was made for participants who periodically took out beddings (p=0.042. Age had a significant positive correlation (linear regression β 0.089 with frequency of respiratory problems. Conclusion: The habit of daily cleaning was implicated as a potential indoor risk factor due to the unique nature of Taiwanese cleaning habit and close contact with cleaning supplies, which could serve as chemical irritants. Bedding takeout was predicted to be an indicator of chronic allergies rather than an actual risk factor. However, both were controversial in their role as potential indoor risk factor, and required further examination.

  2. Logistics planning and logistics planning factors for humanitarian operations

    OpenAIRE

    Sullivan, Donna Marie.

    1995-01-01

    Due to the increasing demand on the military to conduct humanitarian operations, the need for logistics planning factors that are applicable to these operations has arisen. This thesis develops a model for humanitarian operations and employs the model to develop logistics planning factors for material consumption and a computer-assisted planning aid relating to the support of the victim population. U.S. Navy (U.S.N.) author.

  3. Planning model of purchasing logistics in outsourcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor JAKOMIN

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available It is often the case that when preparing their offers, potential outsourcers of logistic activities do not thoroughly research all the activities that have an influence on the process of logistics. Consequently, they prepare relatively expensive offers (that can later lead to greater unexpected costs which, in many cases, business partners decide against and persist with their own existing methods of doing business. The original contribution to science in this article is a model that will aid better understanding of dealing with problems and will, in practice, serve as a tool for the successful execution of business offers by outsourcers. Following research we have discovered, and are able to confirm, that despite the high start-up costs of the outsourcing, in the long term the company can reduce logistic costs. The model presented serves as an in-depth analysis of the company which enables the definition of favourable and optimal offers for outsourcing. The model shown helps to minimise the influence of mistrust and emphasises the importance of reducing the logistic costs with outsourcing.

  4. AN OVERVIEW ON RETAIL REVERSE LOGISTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana Olariu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This article is a theoretical approach on retail reverse logistics. Environmental concern and the current marketing strategy have spurred retailers to implement strategies to facilitate product returns from end customers. Reverse logistics, indicating the process of this return flow, encompasses such activities as the movement of returned products, facilities to accommodate returned items, and overall remedy process for returned items. The retail industry, under great competitive pressure, has used return policies as a competitive weapon. Grocery retailers were the first to begin to focus serious attention on the problem of returns and to develop reverse logistics innovations. Grocery retailers first developed innovations such as reclamation centers. Reclamation centers, in turn, led to the establishment of centralized return centers. Centralizing returns has led to significant benefits for most firms that have implemented them. Over the last several years, retailers have consolidated. Now, more than ever, reverse logistics is seen as being important. This reverse distribution activity can be crucial to the survival of companies, because the permanent goodwill of the company is at stake. Businesses succeed because they respond to both external and internal changes and adjust in an effective manner to remain competitive.

  5. Feasibility of a self-administered survey to identify primary care patients at risk of medication-related problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Makowsky MJ

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Mark J Makowsky,1 Andrew J Cave,2 Scot H Simpson1 1Faculty of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, 2Department of Family Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada Background and objectives: Pharmacists working in primary care clinics are well positioned to help optimize medication management of community-dwelling patients who are at high risk of experiencing medication-related problems. However, it is often difficult to identify these patients. Our objective was to test the feasibility of a self-administered patient survey, to facilitate identification of patients at high risk of medication-related problems in a family medicine clinic. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional, paper-based survey at the University of Alberta Hospital Family Medicine Clinic in Edmonton, Alberta, which serves approximately 7,000 patients, with 25,000 consultations per year. Adult patients attending the clinic were invited to complete a ten-item questionnaire, adapted from previously validated surveys, while waiting to be seen by the physician. Outcomes of interest included: time to complete the questionnaire, staff feedback regarding impact on workflow, and the proportion of patients who reported three or more risk factors for medication-related problems. Results: The questionnaire took less than 5 minutes to complete, according to the patient's report on the last page of the questionnaire. The median age (and interquartile range of respondents was 57 (45–69 years; 59% were women; 47% reported being in very good or excellent health; 43 respondents of 100 had three or more risk factors, and met the definition for being at high risk of a medication-related problem. Conclusions: Distribution of a self-administered questionnaire did not disrupt patients, or the clinic workflow, and identified an important proportion of patients at high risk of medication-related problems. Keywords: screening tool, pharmacists, primary

  6. Late-Life and Life History Predictors of Older Adults of High-Risk Alcohol Consumption and Drinking Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moos, Rudolf H.; Schutte, Kathleen K.; Brennan, Penny L.; Moos, Bernice S.

    2009-01-01

    Aims This prospective, longitudinal study focused on late-life and life history predictors of high-risk alcohol consumption and drinking problems during a 20-year interval as adults matured from age 55–65 to age 75–85. Design, Setting, Participants A sample of older community residents (N=719) who had consumed alcohol in the past year or shortly before was surveyed at baseline and 10 years and 20 years later. Measurements At each contact point, participants completed an inventory that assessed their alcohol consumption, drinking problems, and personal and life context factors. Participants also provided information about their life history of drinking and help-seeking. Results Older adults who, at baseline, had more friends who approved of drinking, relied on substances for tension reduction, and had more financial resources were more likely to engage in high-risk alcohol consumption and to incur drinking problems at 10-year and 20-year follow-ups. With respect to life history factors, drinking problems by age 50 were associated with a higher likelihood of late-life high-risk alcohol consumption and drinking problems; having tried to cut down on drinking and participation in Alcoholics Anonymous were associated with a lower likelihood of high-risk consumption and problems. Conclusion Specific late-life and life history factors can identify older adults likely to engage in excessive alcohol consumption 10 and 20 years later. Targeted screening that considers current alcohol consumption and life context, and history of drinking problems and help-seeking, could help identify older adults at higher risk for excessive or problematic drinking. PMID:19969428

  7. Late-life and life history predictors of older adults' high-risk alcohol consumption and drinking problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moos, Rudolf H; Schutte, Kathleen K; Brennan, Penny L; Moos, Bernice S

    2010-04-01

    This prospective, longitudinal study focused on late-life and life history predictors of high-risk alcohol consumption and drinking problems during a 20-year interval as adults matured from age 55-65 to 75-85. A sample of older community residents (N=719) who had consumed alcohol in the past year or shortly before was surveyed at baseline and 10 and 20 years later. At each contact point, participants completed an inventory that assessed their alcohol consumption, drinking problems, and personal and life context factors. Participants also provided information about their life history of drinking and help-seeking. Older adults who, at baseline, had more friends who approved of drinking, relied on substances for tension reduction, and had more financial resources were more likely to engage in high-risk alcohol consumption and to incur drinking problems at 10- and 20-year follow-ups. With respect to life history factors, drinking problems by age 50 were associated with a higher likelihood of late-life high-risk alcohol consumption and drinking problems; having tried to cut down on drinking and participation in Alcoholics Anonymous were associated with a lower likelihood of high-risk consumption and problems. Specific late-life and life history factors can identify older adults likely to engage in excessive alcohol consumption 10 and 20 years later. Targeted screening that considers current alcohol consumption and life context, and history of drinking problems and help-seeking, could help identify older adults at higher risk for excessive or problematic drinking. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  8. Development of logistics information systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Ž. Dronjak

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available An adequate logistics information system provides real time automated data processing, distribution and of information according to Terrain Commander's requirements, which leads to timely fulfillment of logistic demands of units. SAP ERP The SAP ERP application is the integrated (ERP software capable of working with complex organisational structures, personnel, equipment, and finance. It enables planning and combining forces for every type of operations. The system also enables the determination of the readiness status of modelled forces. ISL The Information System for Logistics (ISL is a comprehensive information system of the Ministry of Defence (MoD and the Army of the Czech Republic that covers many areas: acquisition, supply, ammunition and equipment maintenance, logistics, etc. The ISL provides support for military logistics in all important areas of consumer and acquisition logistics, satisfaying all kinds of Defence Forces needs in the country and abroad. LOGFAS The information system LOGFAS comprises Logistics Database (LOGBASE, Movement and Transportation software (M&T, Allied Command Europe Resource Optimisation Software System (ACROSS and Logistic Reporting System (LOGREP. The Logistics Database LOGBASE represents a logistics information source and also a database related to assets, forces, geography, infrastructure, targets, supplies, movements and medical data. The main software tools which rely on the LOGBASE are M&T, ACROSS and LOGREP. GCSS-Army The original impetus to create the SALE came in the mid-90s when the United States Department of Defense (DoD started a logistics modernisation programme. One of tasks was to build The Single Army Logistics Enterprise (SALE for the purpose of covering the whole organisational structure of the DoD. There are three components of the SALE: GCSS-Army, PLM+ and LMP. Each of them uses the commercial Enterprise Resource Planning SAP Software with a Web access. The main component, GCSS

  9. The system for statistical analysis of logistic information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khayrullin Rustam Zinnatullovich

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The current problem for managers in logistic and trading companies is the task of improving the operational business performance and developing the logistics support of sales. The development of logistics sales supposes development and implementation of a set of works for the development of the existing warehouse facilities, including both a detailed description of the work performed, and the timing of their implementation. Logistics engineering of warehouse complex includes such tasks as: determining the number and the types of technological zones, calculation of the required number of loading-unloading places, development of storage structures, development and pre-sales preparation zones, development of specifications of storage types, selection of loading-unloading equipment, detailed planning of warehouse logistics system, creation of architectural-planning decisions, selection of information-processing equipment, etc. The currently used ERP and WMS systems did not allow us to solve the full list of logistics engineering problems. In this regard, the development of specialized software products, taking into account the specifics of warehouse logistics, and subsequent integration of these software with ERP and WMS systems seems to be a current task. In this paper we suggest a system of statistical analysis of logistics information, designed to meet the challenges of logistics engineering and planning. The system is based on the methods of statistical data processing.The proposed specialized software is designed to improve the efficiency of the operating business and the development of logistics support of sales. The system is based on the methods of statistical data processing, the methods of assessment and prediction of logistics performance, the methods for the determination and calculation of the data required for registration, storage and processing of metal products, as well as the methods for planning the reconstruction and development

  10. City logistics initiatives aimed at improving sustainability by changing the context of urban area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadić Snežana R.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available City logistics is a field that attracts increasing attention of professionals and scientific community and international organizations. Research on problems of urban areas' logistics gives different results and practical solutions. City logistics flows are characterized by partiality, spatial dispersion of generators, diversity in terms of the logistics chains structure, frequency of a large number of smaller shipments, dynamism, stochasticity etc. Problems and the complexity of logistics in urban areas as well as significant decline in the quality of life in modern cities have caused the development of initiatives and concepts of city logistics which should allow the sustainable development of urban areas. The first part of this paper presents the problems of city logistics and impact of logistics activities on urban areas in terms of economic, environmental and social sustainability. The second part presents city logistics initiatives that involve the change of urban area context, in order to improve its sustainability.

  11. Reducing developmental risk for emotional/behavioral problems: a randomized controlled trial examining the Tools for Getting Along curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daunic, Ann P; Smith, Stephen W; Garvan, Cynthia W; Barber, Brian R; Becker, Mallory K; Peters, Christine D; Taylor, Gregory G; Van Loan, Christopher L; Li, Wei; Naranjo, Arlene H

    2012-04-01

    Researchers have demonstrated that cognitive-behavioral intervention strategies - such as social problem solving - provided in school settings can help ameliorate the developmental risk for emotional and behavioral difficulties. In this study, we report the results of a randomized controlled trial of Tools for Getting Along (TFGA), a social problem-solving universally delivered curriculum designed to reduce the developmental risk for serious emotional or behavioral problems among upper elementary grade students. We analyzed pre-intervention and post-intervention teacher-report and student self-report data from 14 schools, 87 classrooms, and a total of 1296 students using multilevel modeling. Results (effect sizes calculated using Hedges' g) indicated that students who were taught TFGA had a more positive approach to problem solving (g=.11) and a more rational problem-solving style (g=.16). Treated students with relatively poor baseline scores benefited from TFGA on (a) problem-solving knowledge (g=1.54); (b) teacher-rated executive functioning (g=.35 for Behavior Regulation and .32 for Metacognition), and proactive aggression (g=.20); and (c) self-reported trait anger (g=.17) and anger expression (g=.21). Thus, TFGA may reduce risk for emotional and behavioral difficulties by improving students' cognitive and emotional self-regulation and increasing their pro-social choices. Copyright © 2011 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Logistics in smallpox: the legacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickett, John; Carrasco, Peter

    2011-12-30

    Logistics, defined as "the time-related positioning of resources" was critical to the implementation of the smallpox eradication strategy of surveillance and containment. Logistical challenges in the smallpox programme included vaccine delivery, supplies, staffing, vehicle maintenance, and financing. Ensuring mobility was essential as health workers had to travel to outbreaks to contain them. Three examples illustrate a range of logistic challenges which required imagination and innovation. Standard price lists were developed to expedite vehicle maintenance and repair in Bihar, India. Innovative staffing ensured an adequate infrastructure for vehicle maintenance in Bangladesh. The use of disaster relief mechanisms in Somalia provided airlifts, vehicles and funding within 27 days of their initiation. In contrast the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) faces more complex logistical challenges. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Logistics Reduction and Repurposing Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The project enables a largely mission-independent, cradle-to-grave-to-cradle approach to minimize logistics contributions to total mission architecture mass. The...

  14. Defense Logistics Agency Revenue Eliminations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1996-01-01

    The issue of revenue eliminations was identified during our work on the Defense Logistics Agency portion of the Audit of Revenue Accounts in the FY 1996 Financial Statements of the Defense Business Operations Fund...

  15. Joint Logistics, Fact or Fiction?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Carroll, Walton

    1998-01-01

    ...) and the evolution of Joint doctrine to meet these new demands. The focus of this examination remains at the strategic level and the ability of the Services to meet the logistical demands of the modern theater battlefield...

  16. OWI transportation/logistics program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shappert, L.B.; Joy, D.S.; Heiskell, M.M.; Turner, D.W.

    1978-01-01

    In development of a comprehensive plan to assure the availability of a transport system by 1985 capable of moving commercial radioactive wastes to federal waste repositories, a series of concerns were identified as having the potential to interfere seriously with the overall objective. These are tabulated and briefly reviewed. Activities to counteract these concerns were formulated. Logistics models were then developed. The spent fuel logistics model is described

  17. NASA Space Rocket Logistics Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neeley, James R.; Jones, James V.; Watson, Michael D.; Bramon, Christopher J.; Inman, Sharon K.; Tuttle, Loraine

    2014-01-01

    The Space Launch System (SLS) is the new NASA heavy lift launch vehicle and is scheduled for its first mission in 2017. The goal of the first mission, which will be uncrewed, is to demonstrate the integrated system performance of the SLS rocket and spacecraft before a crewed flight in 2021. SLS has many of the same logistics challenges as any other large scale program. Common logistics concerns for SLS include integration of discreet programs geographically separated, multiple prime contractors with distinct and different goals, schedule pressures and funding constraints. However, SLS also faces unique challenges. The new program is a confluence of new hardware and heritage, with heritage hardware constituting seventy-five percent of the program. This unique approach to design makes logistics concerns such as commonality especially problematic. Additionally, a very low manifest rate of one flight every four years makes logistics comparatively expensive. That, along with the SLS architecture being developed using a block upgrade evolutionary approach, exacerbates long-range planning for supportability considerations. These common and unique logistics challenges must be clearly identified and tackled to allow SLS to have a successful program. This paper will address the common and unique challenges facing the SLS programs, along with the analysis and decisions the NASA Logistics engineers are making to mitigate the threats posed by each.

  18. Notes for a workshop on risk analysis and decision under uncertainty. The practical use of probabilistic and Bayesian methodology inreal life risk assessment and decision problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-01

    The use of probabilistic, and especially Bayesian, methods is explained. The concepts of risk and decision, and probability and frequency are elucidated. The mechanics of probability and probabilistic calculations is discussed. The use of the method for particular problems, such as the frequency of aircraft crashes at a specified nuclear reactor site, is illustrated. 64 figures, 20 tables. (RWR)

  19. Notes for a workshop on risk analysis and decision under uncertainty. The practical use of probabilistic and Bayesian methodology inreal life risk assessment and decision problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    The use of probabilistic, and especially Bayesian, methods is explained. The concepts of risk and decision, and probability and frequency are elucidated. The mechanics of probability and probabilistic calculations is discussed. The use of the method for particular problems, such as the frequency of aircraft crashes at a specified nuclear reactor site, is illustrated. 64 figures, 20 tables

  20. On logistic regression analysis of dichotomized responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Kaifeng

    2017-01-01

    We study the properties of treatment effect estimate in terms of odds ratio at the study end point from logistic regression model adjusting for the baseline value when the underlying continuous repeated measurements follow a multivariate normal distribution. Compared with the analysis that does not adjust for the baseline value, the adjusted analysis produces a larger treatment effect as well as a larger standard error. However, the increase in standard error is more than offset by the increase in treatment effect so that the adjusted analysis is more powerful than the unadjusted analysis for detecting the treatment effect. On the other hand, the true adjusted odds ratio implied by the normal distribution of the underlying continuous variable is a function of the baseline value and hence is unlikely to be able to be adequately represented by a single value of adjusted odds ratio from the logistic regression model. In contrast, the risk difference function derived from the logistic regression model provides a reasonable approximation to the true risk difference function implied by the normal distribution of the underlying continuous variable over the range of the baseline distribution. We show that different metrics of treatment effect have similar statistical power when evaluated at the baseline mean. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. The non-condition logistic regression analysis of the reason of hypothyroidism after hyperthyroidism with 131I treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dang Yaping; Hu Guoying; Meng Xianwen

    1994-01-01

    There are many opinions on the reason of hypothyroidism after hyperthyroidism with 131 I treatment. In this respect, there are a few scientific analyses and reports. The non-condition logistic regression solved this problem successfully. It has a higher scientific value and confidence in the risk factor analysis. 748 follow-up patients' data were analysed by the non-condition logistic regression. The results shown that the half-life and 131 I dose were the main causes of the incidence of hypothyroidism. The degree of confidence is 92.4%

  2. Problem drinking among at-risk college students: The examination of Greek involvement, freshman status, and history of mental health problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Haley S; Klanecky, Alicia K; McChargue, Dennis E

    2018-02-06

    Scarce research has examined the combined effect of mental health difficulties and demographic risk factors such as freshman status and Greek affiliation in understanding college problem drinking. The current study is interested in looking at the interaction among freshman status, Greek affiliation, and mental health difficulties. Undergraduate students (N = 413) from a private and public Midwestern university completed a large online survey battery between January 2009 and April 2013. Data from both schools were aggregated for the analyses. After accounting for gender, age, and school type, the three-way interaction indicated that the highest drinking levels were reported in freshman students who reported a history of mental health problems although were not involved in Greek life. Findings are discussed in the context of perceived social norms, as well as alcohol-related screenings and intervention opportunities on college campuses.

  3. The possibilities of applying a risk-oriented approach to the NPP reliability and safety enhancement problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Yu. A.

    2014-10-01

    An analysis and some generalizations of approaches to risk assessments are presented. Interconnection between different interpretations of the "risk" notion is shown, and the possibility of applying the fuzzy set theory to risk assessments is demonstrated. A generalized formulation of the risk assessment notion is proposed in applying risk-oriented approaches to the problem of enhancing reliability and safety in nuclear power engineering. The solution of problems using the developed risk-oriented approaches aimed at achieving more reliable and safe operation of NPPs is described. The results of studies aimed at determining the need (advisability) to modernize/replace NPP elements and systems are presented together with the results obtained from elaborating the methodical principles of introducing the repair concept based on the equipment technical state. The possibility of reducing the scope of tests and altering the NPP systems maintenance strategy is substantiated using the risk-oriented approach. A probabilistic model for estimating the validity of boric acid concentration measurements is developed.

  4. Research and application of genetic algorithm in path planning of logistics distribution vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yong; Zhou, Heng; Wang, Ying

    2017-08-01

    The core of the logistics distribution system is the vehicle routing planning, research path planning problem, provide a better solution has become an important issue. In order to provide the decision support for logistics and distribution operations, this paper studies the problem of vehicle routing with capacity constraints (CVRP). By establishing a mathematical model, the genetic algorithm is used to plan the path of the logistics vehicle to meet the minimum logistics and transportation costs.

  5. Effects of Intervention to Improve At-Risk Fourth Graders' Understanding, Calculations, and Word Problems with Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Lynn S.; Schumacher, Robin F.; Long, Jessica; Namkung, Jessica; Malone, Amelia S.; Wang, Amber; Hamlett, Carol L.; Jordan, Nancy C.; Siegler, Robert S.; Changas, Paul

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to (a) investigate the efficacy of a core fraction intervention program on understanding and calculation skill and (b) isolate the effects of different forms of fraction word-problem (WP) intervention. At-risk fourth graders (n = 213) were randomly assigned to the school's business-as-usual program, or one of two…

  6. Using the WHO-5 Well-Being Index to Identify College Students at Risk for Mental Health Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downs, Andrew; Boucher, Laura A.; Campbell, Duncan G.; Polyakov, Anita

    2017-01-01

    There is a clear need for colleges to do a better job of identifying students who may benefit from treatment and encouraging those students to actually seek help (Hunt & Eisenberg, 2010). Indeed, research suggests that population-based screening can encourage college students who are at risk for mental health problems to seek treatment (Kim,…

  7. Cumulative Risk and Adolescent's Internalizing and Externalizing Problems: The Mediating Roles of Maternal Responsiveness and Self-Regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doan, Stacey N.; Fuller-Rowell, Thomas E.; Evans, Gary W.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine longitudinal associations among maternal responsiveness, self-regulation, and behavioral adjustment in adolescents. The authors used structural equation modeling to test a model that demonstrates that the effects of early cumulative risk on behavioral problems is mediated by maternal responsiveness…

  8. Effects of Intervention to Improve At-Risk Fourth Graders' Understanding, Calculations, and Word Problems with Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Lynn S.; Schumacher, Robin F.; Long, Jessica; Namkung, Jessica; Malone, Amelia S.; Wang, Amber; Hamlett, Carol L.; Jordan, Nancy C.; Siegler, Robert S.; Changas, Paul

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to (a) investigate the efficacy of a core fraction intervention program on understanding and calculation skill and (b) isolate the effects of different forms of fraction word-problem (WP) intervention delivered as part of the larger program. At-risk 4th graders (n = 213) were randomly assigned at the individual…

  9. Substance Use and Mental Health Problems as Predictors of HIV Sexual Risk Behaviors among Adolescents in Foster Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ronald G., Jr.; Auslander, Wendy F.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between substance use, mental health problems, and HIV sexual risk behaviors among a sample of foster care adolescents. Data were collected through structured baseline interviews with 320 adolescents (ages 15 to 18 years) who resided in foster care placements and participated in a larger evaluation study of an…

  10. Determining risk factors for internalizing problem behavior: the Screening Instrument for Adolescents of Parents with Chronic Medical Condition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sieh, D.S.; Oort, F.J.; Visser-Meily, J.M.A.; Meijer, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    A large body of evidence suggests that the risk for adjustment difficulties in children of parents with a chronic medical condition (CMC) depend on a number of demographic, illness-related, child adaptational, and family characteristics. In particular, internalizing problems are common in children

  11. Number of Psychosocial Strengths Predicts Reduced HIV Sexual Risk Behaviors Above and Beyond Syndemic Problems Among Gay and Bisexual Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Trevor A; Noor, Syed W; Adam, Barry D; Vernon, Julia R G; Brennan, David J; Gardner, Sandra; Husbands, Winston; Myers, Ted

    2017-10-01

    Syndemics research shows the additive effect of psychosocial problems on high-risk sexual behavior among gay and bisexual men (GBM). Psychosocial strengths may predict less engagement in high-risk sexual behavior. In a study of 470 ethnically diverse HIV-negative GBM, regression models were computed using number of syndemic psychosocial problems, number of psychosocial strengths, and serodiscordant condomless anal sex (CAS). The number of syndemic psychosocial problems correlated with serodiscordant CAS (RR = 1.51, 95% CI 1.18-1.92; p = 0.001). When adding the number of psychosocial strengths to the model, the effect of syndemic psychosocial problems became non-significant, but the number of strengths-based factors remained significant (RR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.53-0.86; p = 0.002). Psychosocial strengths may operate additively in the same way as syndemic psychosocial problems, but in the opposite direction. Consistent with theories of resilience, psychosocial strengths may be an important set of variables predicting sexual risk behavior that is largely missing from the current HIV behavioral literature.

  12. Urban elders and casino gambling: Are they at risk of a gambling problem?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaranek, Rochelle R; Lichtenberg, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    This study examined gambling among older adults and explored the critical predictors of problem gambling behaviors. Relatively unknown and understudied is the extent, or prevalence, of problem gambling behaviors among urban elders and the factors associated with problem gambling. The sample consisted of 1410 randomly selected participants, aged 60 and older, who reside in the City of Detroit. Mental health, health, demographics, social activities, senior optimism, social support network, and frequency of casino visits were examined in order to predict problem gambling behaviors among elders. The survey implemented the Lie/Bet Questionnaire for Screening Probable pathological Gamblers. The results showed that the prevalence of problem gambling behaviors was 10.4% overall, and 18% of persons reporting any casino visitation. Predictors accounted for 16% of problem gambling behaviors. The findings from this study confirmed that gambling has the potential to become a serious health problem among elders. Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Logistics Management: New trends in the Reverse Logistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonyová, A.; Antony, P.; Soewito, B.

    2016-04-01

    Present level and quality of the environment are directly dependent on our access to natural resources, as well as their sustainability. In particular production activities and phenomena associated with it have a direct impact on the future of our planet. Recycling process, which in large enterprises often becomes an important and integral part of the production program, is usually in small and medium-sized enterprises problematic. We can specify a few factors, which have direct impact on the development and successful application of the effective reverse logistics system. Find the ways to economically acceptable model of reverse logistics, focusing on converting waste materials for renewable energy, is the task in progress.

  14. Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Abandoned Mine Lands as Signifcant Contamination Problem in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horvath, E.; Jordan, G.; Fugedi, U.; Bartha, A.; Kuti, L.; Heltai, G.; Kalmar, J.; Waldmann, I.; Napradean, I.; Damian, G.

    2009-04-01

    INTRODUCTION Wide-spread environmental contamination associated with historic mining in Europe has triggered social responses to improve related environmental legislation, the environmental assessment and management methods for the mining industry. Pollution by acid mine drainage (AMD) from ore and coal mining is the outstanding and most important source of mining-induced environmental pollution. Younger et al. (2002) estimates that watercourses polluted by coal mine drainage could be in the order of 2,000 to 3,000 km, and 1,000 to 1,500 km polluted by metal mine discharges for the EU 15 Member States (Younger et al. 2002). Significance of contamination risk posed by mining is also highlighted by mine accidents such as those in Baia Mare, Romania in 2002 and in Aznalcollar, Spain in 1999 (Jordan and D'Alessandro 2004). The new EU Mine Waste Directive (Directive 2006/21/EC) requires the risk-based inventory of abandoned mines in the EU. The cost-effective implementation of the inventory is especially demanding in countries with extensive historic mining and great number of abandoned mine sites, like Romania. The problem is further complicated in areas with trans-boundary effects. The objective of this investigation to carry out the risk-based contamination assessment of a mine site with possible trans-boundary effects in Romania. Assessment follows the source-pathway-receptor chain with a special attention to heavy metal leaching from waste dumps as sources and to transport modelling along surface water pathways. STUDY AREA In this paper the Baiut mine catchment located in the Gutai Mts., Romania, close to the Hungarian border is studied. The polymetallic deposites in the Tertiary Inner-Carpathian Volcanic Arc are exposed by a series of abandoned Zn and Pb mines first operated in the 14th century. Elevation in the high relief catchment ranges from 449m to 1044m. Geology is characterised by andesites hosting the ore deposits and paleogene sediments dominating at the

  15. Review of problems and methods for radiation risk assessment in the environment of a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grgic, M.

    1966-01-01

    Radiation impact on the nuclear power plant environment is a very important problem which has to be solved during design and construction. Damage that could be caused by release of radioactive material into the environment should be estimated and the magnitude of nuclear and radiation risk of the power plant should be evaluated. In general the accuracy of estimation is rather poor due to statistical fluctuations of the conditions which influence radioactivity expansion in the environment, especially in the air. Different uncertainties and unresolved problems influence the inaccuracy. Since any real risk should be extremely small compared to potential risk i.e. risk induced by nuclear power plant without any safety measures, even inaccurate estimations are very useful. Method for environmental radiation risk assessment is based on relatively simple models of radiation expansion in the environment and in the air. These models are theoretically solved but they are based on relatively limited number of experimental data. Assessment of the radiation effects on the population health and mortality is an important problem [sl

  16. Challenges of Green Logistics in Southeast Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Beškovnik, Bojan; Jakomin, Livio

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the trends towards green logistics in global aspect and challenges of adopting green logistics in the region of Southeast Europe. Modern logistics with supply chain management is experiencing a period of important evolution. From reversible logistics, we came to green logistics, which is a wider concept of environmentally friendly thinking. Reverse logistics includes processes of movements and transportation of waste from users to recycling plants; meanwhile, green logist...

  17. FUTURE CIRCULAR COLLIDER LOGISTICS STUDY

    CERN Document Server

    Beißert, Ulrike; Kuhlmann, Gerd; Nettsträter, Andreas; Prasse, Christian; Wohlfahrt, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at the European Organization for Nuclear Research CERN in Geneva is the largest and most powerful collider in the world. CERN and its research and experimental infrastructure is not only a focus for the science community but is also very much in the public eye. With the Future Circular Collider (FCC) Study, CERN has begun to examine the feasibility of a new underground accelerator ring with a length of approximately 100 kilometres. Logistics is of great importance for the construction, assembly and operation of the FCC. During the planning, construction and assembly of the LHC, logistics proved to be one of the key factors. As the FCC is even larger than the LHC, logistics will also become more and more significant. This report therefore shows new concepts, methods and analytics for logistics, supply chain and transport concepts as part of the FCC study. This report deals with three different logistics aspects for the planning and construction phase of FCC: 1. A discussion of d...

  18. Identifying at-risk profiles and protective factors for problem gambling: A longitudinal study across adolescence and early adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allami, Youssef; Vitaro, Frank; Brendgen, Mara; Carbonneau, René; Tremblay, Richard E

    2018-05-01

    Past studies have identified various risk and protective factors for problem gambling (PG). However, no study has examined the interplay between these factors using a combination of person-centered and variable-centered approaches embedded within a longitudinal design. The present study aimed to (a) identify distinct profiles in early adolescence based on a set of risk factors commonly associated with PG (impulsivity, depression, anxiety, drug-alcohol use, aggressiveness, and antisociality), (b) explore the difference in reported gambling problems between these profiles during midadolescence and early adulthood, and (c) identify family- and peer-related variables that could operate as protective or compensatory factors in this context. Two samples were used: (a) a population sample (N = 1,033) living in low socioeconomic-status neighborhoods and (b) a population sample (N = 3,017) representative of students attending Quebec schools. Latent profile analyses were conducted to identify at-risk profiles based on individual risk factors measured at age 12 years. Negative binomial regression models were estimated to compare profiles in terms of their reported gambling problems at ages 16 and 23. Finally, family- and peer-related variables measured at age 14 were included to test their protective or compensatory role with respect to the link between at-risk profiles and gambling problems. Four profiles were identified: well-adjusted, internalizing, externalizing, and comorbid. Compared to the well-adjusted profile, the externalizing and comorbid profiles reported more gambling problems at ages 16 and 23, but the internalizing profile did not differ significantly. Various protective and compensatory factors emerged for each profile at both time points. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. An allometric scaling relation based on logistic growth of cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Yanguang

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • An allometric scaling based on logistic process can be used to model urban growth. • The traditional allometry is based on exponential growth instead of logistic growth. • The exponential allometry represents a local scaling of urban growth. • The logistic allometry represents a global scaling of urban growth. • The exponential allometry is an approximation relation of the logistic allometry. - Abstract: The relationships between urban area and population size have been empirically demonstrated to follow the scaling law of allometric growth. This allometric scaling is based on exponential growth of city size and can be termed “exponential allometry”, which is associated with the concepts of fractals. However, both city population and urban area comply with the course of logistic growth rather than exponential growth. In this paper, I will present a new allometric scaling based on logistic growth to solve the above mentioned problem. The logistic growth is a process of replacement dynamics. Defining a pair of replacement quotients as new measurements, which are functions of urban area and population, we can derive an allometric scaling relation from the logistic processes of urban growth, which can be termed “logistic allometry”. The exponential allometric relation between urban area and population is the approximate expression of the logistic allometric equation when the city size is not large enough. The proper range of the allometric scaling exponent value is reconsidered through the logistic process. Then, a medium-sized city of Henan Province, China, is employed as an example to validate the new allometric relation. The logistic allometry is helpful for further understanding the fractal property and self-organized process of urban evolution in the right perspective

  20. REGIONAL LOGISTICS CENTER: FORMATION AND FUNCTIONING SPESIFIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Tkach

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this article the essence of the definition of logistics centers is defined, the main provisions concerning the formation of the logistics center are defined. The formation of a logistic hub is analyzed. The structure of the transport-logistic center is proposed. The basic requirements for the location of the regional logistics center and the principles of its operation are determined. The financial and financial mechanism of a typical logistics center and their effective functioning are presented. It is proved that the most important component of the logistics center is transport. Key words: logistics centers, logistics, hub, distribution centers, transport and logistics centers, regional logistic centers, logistics complex, transport, transport-logistic system.