Screening-Level Ecological Risk Assessment Methods, Revision 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mirenda, Richard J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2012-08-16

This document provides guidance for screening-level assessments of potential adverse impacts to ecological resources from release of environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory). The methods presented are based on two objectives, namely: to provide a basis for reaching consensus with regulators, managers, and other interested parties on how to conduct screening-level ecological risk investigations at the Laboratory; and to provide guidance for ecological risk assessors under the Environmental Programs (EP) Directorate. This guidance promotes consistency, rigor, and defensibility in ecological screening investigations and in reporting those investigation results. The purpose of the screening assessment is to provide information to the risk managers so informed riskmanagement decisions can be made. This document provides examples of recommendations and possible risk-management strategies.

Are Bavarian Forests (southern Germany) at risk from ground-level ozone? Assessment using exposure and flux based ozone indices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baumgarten, Manuela; Huber, Christian; Bueker, Patrick; Emberson, Lisa; Dietrich, Hans-Peter; Nunn, Angela J.; Heerdt, Christian; Beudert, Burkhard; Matyssek, Rainer

2009-01-01

Exposure and flux-based indices of O 3 risk were compared, at 19 forest locations across Bavaria in southern Germany from 2002 to 2005; leaf symptoms on mature beech trees found at these locations were also examined for O 3 injury. O 3 flux modelling was performed using continuously recorded O 3 concentrations in combination with meteorological and soil moisture data collected from Level II forest sites. O 3 measurements at nearby rural open-field sites proved appropriate as surrogates in cases where O 3 data were lacking at forest sites (with altitude-dependent average differences of about 10% between O 3 concentrations). Operational thresholds of biomass loss for both O 3 indices were exceeded at the majority of the forest locations, suggesting similar risk under long-term average climate conditions. However, exposure-based indices estimated higher O 3 risk during dry years as compared to the flux-based approach. In comparison, minor O 3 -like leaf injury symptoms were detected only at a few of the forest sites investigated. Relationships between flux-based risk thresholds and tree response need to be established for mature forest stands for validation of predicted growth reductions under the prevailing O 3 regimes. - Exposure- and flux-based ozone indices suggest Bavarian forests to be at risk from ozone; the flux-based index offers a means of incorporating stand-specific and ecological variables that influence risk.

Study on effectiveness of flood control based on risk level: case study of Kampung Melayu Village and Bukit Duri Village

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farid Mohammad

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, experiences flood which causes activities disruption and losses almost every year. Many studies have been done to mitigate the impact of flooding. Most of them focus on reducing the inundated area as an indicator of the effectiveness of flood control. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of several flood control alternatives based on risk level reduction. The case study is located in Kampung Melayu Village and Bukit Duri Village which are densely populated with several economic area and almost every year experiencing severe flooding in Jakarta. Risk level analysis was carried out by the method based on guidelines issued by the Head of National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB No. 2/2012 with few modifications. The analysis is conducted on five alternatives of flood control which are diversion channel to East Flood Canal (KBT, diversion channel to the West Flood Canal (KBB in Pasar Minggu, river improvement, capacity enhancement on all components, and capacity enhancement focusing on one component. From the results, it is showed that enhancing capacity which focus on preparedness component by two levels are the best in terms of investment value to risk level reduction.

An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn; Ebeling, Markus; Liu, Chun; Luttik, Robert; Mastitsky, Sergey; Nacci, Diane; Topping, Chris; Wang, Magnus

2016-01-01

This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used a hypothetical fungicide (FungicideX) in different scenarios: spraying in cereals (common vole, Microtus arvalis), spraying in orchards (field vole, Microtus agrestis), and cereal seed treatment (wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus). Each scenario used existing model landscapes, which differed greatly in size and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite differing internal model design and scenarios, results indicated in all 3 cases low population sensitivity unless FungicideX was applied at very high (×10) rates. Recovery from local population impacts was generally fast. Only when patch extinctions occured in simulations of intentionally high acute toxic effects, recovery periods, then determined by recolonization, were of any concern. Conclusions include recommendations for the most important input considerations, including the selection of exposure levels, duration of simulations, statistically robust number of replicates, and endpoints to report. However, further investigation and agreement are needed to develop recommendations for landscape attributes such as size, structure, and crop rotation to define appropriate regulatory risk assessment scenarios. Overall, the application of IBMs provides multiple advantages to higher tier ecological risk assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios. © 2015 SETAC.

Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

2015-01-01

Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

2000-09-26

The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deriot, S.

1992-10-01

This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

Exposure level of ergonomic risk factors in hotel industries

Science.gov (United States)

Nasrull Abdol Rahman, Mohd; Syahir Muhamad Jaffar, Mohd; Fahrul Hassan, Mohd; Zamani Ngali, Mohd; Pauline, Ong

2017-08-01

Ergonomic Risk Factors (ERFs) which contribute to Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs) among room attendants were considered as a problem or trouble since these ERFs would affect their work performance for hotel industries. The purpose of this study was to examine the exposure level of ERFs among room attendants in hotel industries. 65 of respondents were obtained from selected hotels in Peninsular Malaysia. Data were collected by direct observation via Workplace Ergonomic Risk Assessment (WERA) and Quick Exposure Checklist (QEC). There were 36 males and 29 females room attendants involved throughout the research. Most of room attendants experienced high exposure level for back, leg, forceful and vibration based on the exposure level evaluation through WERA while QEC results showed that all room attendants were found to have moderate exposure level for risk factors including back for movement use, shoulders/arms, wrists/hands and neck. All the results obtained showed that the related ERFs for MSDs were associated and essential ergonomic interventions are needed in order to eliminate risk of exposures to MSDs among room attendants in hotel industries.

Creating a strategy for science-based national policy: Addressing conflicting views on the health risk of low-level ionizing radiation. Final report, Wingspread Conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McClellan, Roger O.; Apple, Martin A.

1998-01-01

Significant cancer risk for adults exposed to more than 100 millisieverts (10 REM) of ionizing radiation. More research on low-level ionizing radiation is needed in molecular and cellular mechanisms of injury and ongoing exposed populations. Implementation costs should be considered in regulating low-level ionizing radiation. Comparative risk assessment is a powerful tool for risk-based policy formation, and conflicting legal statutes should become harmonized for radiation regulation. More public dialog on low-level radiation is needed. A high level commission should evaluate radiation hazard control practices

Taking risk assessment and management to the next level - 59395

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, Jerel; Morton, Russel Lee; Castillo, Carlos; Dyer, George; Johnson, Natalie; McSwain, James T.; Kruskall, Gary Nick

2012-01-01

Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell into two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact

County-level job automation risk and health: Evidence from the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Pankaj C; Devaraj, Srikant; Hicks, Michael J; Wornell, Emily J

2018-04-01

Previous studies have observed a positive association between automation risk and employment loss. Based on the job insecurity-health risk hypothesis, greater exposure to automation risk could also be negatively associated with health outcomes. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the county-level association between prevalence of workers in jobs exposed to automation risk and general, physical, and mental health outcomes. As a preliminary assessment of the job insecurity-health risk hypothesis (automation risk → job insecurity → poorer health), a structural equation model was used based on individual-level data in the two cross-sectional waves (2012 and 2014) of General Social Survey (GSS). Next, using county-level data from County Health Rankings 2017, American Community Survey (ACS) 2015, and Statistics of US Businesses 2014, Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression models were fitted to predict county-level health outcomes. Using the 2012 and 2014 waves of the GSS, employees in occupational classes at higher risk of automation reported more job insecurity, that, in turn, was associated with poorer health. The 2SLS estimates show that a 10% increase in automation risk at county-level is associated with 2.38, 0.8, and 0.6 percentage point lower general, physical, and mental health, respectively. Evidence suggests that exposure to automation risk may be negatively associated with health outcomes, plausibly through perceptions of poorer job security. More research is needed on interventions aimed at mitigating negative influence of automation risk on health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors and consequences of maternal anaemia and elevated haemoglobin levels during pregnancy: a population-based prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaillard, Romy; Eilers, Paul H C; Yassine, Siham; Hofman, Albert; Steegers, Eric A P; Jaddoe, Vincent W V

2014-05-01

To determine sociodemographic and life style-related risk factors and trimester specific maternal, placental, and fetal consequences of maternal anaemia and elevated haemoglobin levels in pregnancy. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 7317 mothers, we measured haemoglobin levels in early pregnancy [gestational age median 14.4 weeks (inter-quartile-range 12.5-17.5)]. Anaemia (haemoglobin ≤11 g/dl) and elevated haemoglobin levels (haemoglobin ≥13.2 g/dl) were defined according to the WHO criteria. Maternal blood pressure, placental function and fetal growth were measured in each trimester. Data on gestational hypertensive disorders and birth outcomes was collected from hospitals. Older maternal age, higher body mass index, primiparity and European descent were associated with higher haemoglobin levels (P pregnancy (mean differences 5.1 mmHg, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.8, 6.5 and 4.1 mmHg, 95% CI 3.0, 5.2, respectively) and with a higher risk of third trimester uterine artery notching (RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0, 1.7). As compared with maternal normal haemoglobin levels, not anaemia, but elevated haemoglobin levels were associated with fetal head circumference, length, and weight growth restriction from third trimester onwards (P pregnancy. Elevated haemoglobin levels are associated with increased risks of maternal, placental, and fetal complications. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using the Clinical Interview and Curriculum Based Measurement to Examine Risk Levels

Science.gov (United States)

Ginsburg, Herbert P.; Lee, Young-Sun; Pappas, Sandra

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the power of the computer guided clinical interview (CI) and new curriculum based measurement (CBM) measures to identify and help children at risk of low mathematics achievement. We use data from large numbers of children in Kindergarten through Grade 3 to investigate the construct validity of CBM risk categories. The basic…

Levelized cost-risk reduction prioritization of waste disposal options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkinson, V.K.; Young, J.M.

1992-01-01

The prioritization of solid waste disposal options in terms of reduced risk to workers, the public, and the environment has recently generated considerable governmental and public interest. In this paper we address the development of a methodology to establish priorities for waste disposal options, such as incineration, landfills, long-term storage, waste minimization, etc. The study is one result of an overall project to develop methodologies for Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) of non-reactor nuclear facilities for the US Department of Energy. Option preferences are based on a levelized cost-risk reduction analysis. Option rankings are developed as functions of disposal option cost and timing, relative long- and short-term risks, and possible accident scenarios. We examine the annual costs and risks for each option over a large number of years. Risk, in this paper, is defined in terms of annual fatalities (both prompt and long-term) and environmental restoration costs that might result from either an accidental release or long-term exposure to both plant workers and the public near the site or facility. We use event timing to weigh both costs and risks; near-term costs and risks are discounted less than future expenditures and fatalities. This technique levels the timing of cash flows and benefits by converting future costs and benefits to present value costs and benefits. We give an example Levelized Cost-Benefit Analysis of incinerator location options to demonstrate the methodology and required data

National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

2017-12-01

National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The

Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

Science.gov (United States)

van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

2014-02-01

Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Perception of mobile phone and base station risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegrist, Michael; Earle, Timothy C; Gutscher, Heinz; Keller, Carmen

2005-10-01

Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N = 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

Risk Levels of Toxic Cyanobacteria in Portuguese Recreational Freshwaters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carina Menezes

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Portuguese freshwater reservoirs are important socio-economic resources, namely for recreational use. National legislation concerning bathing waters does not include mandatory levels or guidelines for cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins. This is an issue of concern since cyanotoxin-based evidence is insufficient to change the law, and the collection of scientific evidence has been hampered by the lack of regulatory levels for cyanotoxins in bathing waters. In this work, we evaluate the profile of cyanobacteria and microcystins (MC in eight freshwater reservoirs from the center of Portugal, used for bathing/recreation, in order to determine the risk levels concerning toxic cyanobacteria occurrence. Three of the reservoirs did not pose a risk of MC contamination. However, two reservoirs presented a high risk in 7% of the samples according to the World Health Organization (WHO guidelines for MC in bathing waters (above 20 µg/L. In the remaining three reservoirs, the risk concerning microcystins occurrence was low. However, they exhibited recurrent blooms and persistent contamination with MC up to 4 µg/L. Thus, the risk of exposure to MC and potential acute and/or chronic health outcomes should not be disregarded in these reservoirs. These results contribute to characterize the cyanobacterial blooms profile and to map the risk of toxic cyanobacteria and microcystins occurrence in Portuguese inland waters.

Calculating background levels for ecological risk parameters in toxic harbor sediment

Science.gov (United States)

Leadon, C.J.; McDonnell, T.R.; Lear, J.; Barclift, D.

2007-01-01

Establishing background levels for biological parameters is necessary in assessing the ecological risks from harbor sediment contaminated with toxic chemicals. For chemicals in sediment, the term contaminated is defined as having concentrations above background and significant human health or ecological risk levels. For biological parameters, a site could be considered contaminated if levels of the parameter are either more or less than the background level, depending on the specific parameter. Biological parameters can include tissue chemical concentrations in ecological receptors, bioassay responses, bioaccumulation levels, and benthic community metrics. Chemical parameters can include sediment concentrations of a variety of potentially toxic chemicals. Indirectly, contaminated harbor sediment can impact shellfish, fish, birds, and marine mammals, and human populations. This paper summarizes the methods used to define background levels for chemical and biological parameters from a survey of ecological risk investigations of marine harbor sediment at California Navy bases. Background levels for regional biological indices used to quantify ecological risks for benthic communities are also described. Generally, background stations are positioned in relatively clean areas exhibiting the same physical and general chemical characteristics as nearby areas with contaminated harbor sediment. The number of background stations and the number of sample replicates per background station depend on the statistical design of the sediment ecological risk investigation, developed through the data quality objective (DQO) process. Biological data from the background stations can be compared to data from a contaminated site by using minimum or maximum background levels or comparative statistics. In Navy ecological risk assessments (ERA's), calculated background levels and appropriate ecological risk screening criteria are used to identify sampling stations and sites with contaminated

A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

2015-01-01

A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

COREDAR: COmmunicating Risk of sea level rise and Engaging stakeholDers in framing community based Adaptation stRategies

Science.gov (United States)

Amsad Ibrahim Khan, S. K.; Chen, R. S.; de Sherbinin, A. M.; Andimuthu, R.; Kandasamy, P.

2015-12-01

Accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) is a major long term outcome of climate change leading to increased inundation of low-lying areas. Particularly, global cities that are located on or near the coasts are often situated in low lying areas and these locations put global cities at greater risk to SLR. Localized flooding will profoundly impact vulnerable communities located in high-risk urban areas. Building community resilience and adapting to SLR is increasingly a high priority for cities. On the other hand, Article 6 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change addresses the importance of climate change communication and engaging stakeholders in decision making process. Importantly, Community Based Adaptation (CBA) experiences emphasize that it is important to understand a community's unique perceptions of their adaptive capacities to identify useful solutions and that scientific and technical information on anticipated coastal climate impacts needs to be translated into a suitable language and format that allows people to be able to participate in adaptation planning. To address this challenge, this study has put forth three research questions from the lens of urban community engagement in SLR adaptation, (1) What, if any, community engagement in addressing SLR occurring in urban areas; (2) What information do communities need and how does it need to be communicated, in order to be better prepared and have a greater sense of agency? and (3) How can government agencies from city to federal levels facilitate community engagement and action?. To answer these questions this study has evolved a framework "COREDAR" (COmmunicating Risk of sea level rise and Engaging stakeholDers in framing community based Adaptation StRategies) to communicate and transfer complex climate data and information such as projected SLR under different scenarios of IPCC AR5, predicted impact of SLR, prioritizing vulnerability, etc. to concerned stakeholders and local communities

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

1989-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

The TSH levels and risk of hypothyroidism: Results from a population based prospective cohort study in an Iranian adult's population.

Science.gov (United States)

Aminorroaya, Ashraf; Meamar, Rokhsareh; Amini, Massoud; Feizi, Awat; Nasri, Maryam; Tabatabaei, Azamosadat; Faghihimani, Elham

2017-06-01

The aim of current study was to assess the relationship between serum TSH levels and hypothyroidism risk in the euthyroid population. In a population-based cohort study, a total of 615 individuals with a normal baseline TSH, from of total population (n=2254) in 2006, were followed up for 6years. TSH, total T4, thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb), and thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) were measured. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated based on logistic regression. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis along with area under the curve (AUC) was used to prediction of future hypothyroidism. TSH level in 2006 was a significant predictor for overt hypothyroidism, in the total population (RR=3.5) and female (RR=1.37) (all, P valuehypothyroidism from euthyroid. However, this cut off was not observed when we included only negative TPO and TgAbs people in 2006. The RR of hypothyroidism increased gradually when TSH level increased from 2.06-3.6mIU/L to >3.6mIU/L in the total population and both sexes. In women, the risk of overt hypothyroidism was significantly higher in subjects with TSH above 3.6 than those subject with THS levels≤2.05 [RR: (CI95 %), 20.57(2.-207.04), P valuehypothyroidism in future. However, it was not applicable for people with negative TPOAb and negative TgAb. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Women with high early pregnancy urinary iodine levels have an increased risk of hyperthyroid newborns: the population-based Generation R Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Medici, Marco; Ghassabian, Akhgar; Visser, Willy; de Muinck Keizer-Schrama, Sabine M P F; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Visser, W Edward; Hooijkaas, Herbert; Hofman, Albert; Steegers, Eric A P; Bongers-Schokking, Jacoba J; Ross, H Alec; Tiemeier, Henning; Visser, Theo J; de Rijke, Yolanda B; Peeters, Robin P

2014-04-01

Iodine deficiency during pregnancy results in thyroid dysfunction and has been associated with adverse obstetric and foetal effects, leading to worldwide salt iodization programmes. As nowadays 69% of the world's population lives in iodine-sufficient regions, we investigated the effects of variation in iodine status on maternal and foetal thyroid (dys)function in an iodine-sufficient population. Urinary iodine, serum TSH, free T4 (FT4) and TPO-antibody levels were determined in early pregnancy (13·3 (1·9) week; mean (SD)) in 1098 women from the population-based Generation R Study. Newborn cord serum TSH and FT4 levels were determined at birth. The median urinary iodine level was 222·5 μg/l, indicating an iodine-sufficient population. 30·8% and 11·5% had urinary iodine levels 500 μg/l, respectively. When comparing mothers with urinary iodine levels 500 vs ≤500 μg/l, there were no differences in the risk of maternal increased or decreased TSH, hypothyroxinaemia or hyperthyroidism. Mothers with urinary iodine levels >500 μg/l had a higher risk of a newborn with decreased cord TSH levels (5·6 ± 1·4 (mean ± SE) vs 2·1 ± 0·5%, P = 0·04), as well as a higher risk of a hyperthyroid newborn (3·1 ± 0·9 vs 0·6 ± 0·3%, P = 0·02). These mothers had newborns with higher cord FT4 levels (21·7 ± 0·3 vs 21·0 ± 0·1 pm, P = 0·04). Maternal urinary iodine levels iodine-sufficient population, higher maternal urinary iodine levels are associated with an increased risk of a hyperthyroid newborn. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Household-level disparities in cancer risks from vehicular air pollution in Miami

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, Timothy W; Grineski, Sara E; Chakraborty, Jayajit

2015-01-01

Environmental justice (EJ) research has relied on ecological analyses of socio-demographic data from areal units to determine if particular populations are disproportionately burdened by toxic risks. This article advances quantitative EJ research by (a) examining whether statistical associations found for geographic units translate to relationships at the household level; (b) testing alternative explanations for distributional injustices never before investigated; and (c) applying a novel statistical technique appropriate for geographically-clustered data. Our study makes these advances by using generalized estimating equations to examine distributive environmental inequities in the Miami (Florida) metropolitan area, based on primary household-level survey data and census block-level cancer risk estimates of hazardous air pollutant (HAP) exposure from on-road mobile emission sources. In addition to modeling determinants of on-road HAP cancer risk among all survey participants, two subgroup models are estimated to examine whether determinants of risk differ based on disadvantaged minority (Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black) versus non-Hispanic white racial/ethnic status. Results reveal multiple determinants of risk exposure disparities. In the model including all survey participants, renter-occupancy, Hispanic and non-Hispanic black race/ethnicity, the desire to live close to work/urban services or public transportation, and higher risk perception are associated with greater on-road HAP cancer risk; the desire to live in an amenity-rich environment is associated with less risk. Divergent subgroup model results shed light on the previously unexamined role of racial/ethnic status in shaping determinants of risk exposures. While lower socioeconomic status and higher risk perception predict significantly greater on-road HAP cancer risk among disadvantaged minorities, the desire to live near work/urban services or public transport predict significantly greater risk among

Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

1992-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

12 CFR 652.65 - Risk-based capital stress test.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...) You will use Corporation loan-level data to implement the credit risk component of the risk-based... Service corporate income tax schedule, as further described in appendix A to this subpart. (b) Credit risk. The credit risk part estimates loan losses during a period of sustained economic stress. (1) For each...

Ferritin levels and risk of heart failure-the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Silvestre, Odilson M; Gonçalves, Alexandra; Nadruz, Wilson; Claggett, Brian; Couper, David; Eckfeldt, John H; Pankow, James S; Anker, Stefan D; Solomon, Scott D

2017-03-01

Severe iron overload is associated with cardiac damage, while iron deficiency has been related to worse outcomes in subjects with heart failure (HF). This study investigated the relationship between ferritin, a marker of iron status, and the incidence of HF in a community-based cohort. We examined 1063 participants who were free of heart failure from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study in whom ferritin serum levels were measured at baseline (1987-1989). The participants (mean age 52.7 ± 5.5 years, 62% women), were categorized in low (200 ng/mL in women and >300 ng/mL in men; n = 247) ferritin levels. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relationship between ferritin and incident HF. After 21 ± 4.6 years of follow-up, HF occurred in 144 (13.5%) participants. When compared with participants with normal ferritin levels, participants with low ferritin levels had a higher risk of HF [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-4.35; P = 0.02] as did those with high ferritin levels (HR = 1.81, 95% CI 1.01-3.25; P = 0.04), after adjusting for potential confounders. Notably, low ferritin levels remained associated with incident HF even after excluding subjects with anaemia (HR = 2.28, 95% CI 1.11-4.68; P = 0.03). Derangements in iron metabolism, either low or high ferritin serum levels, were associated with higher risk of incident HF in a general population, even without concurrent anaemia. These findings suggest that iron imbalance might play a role in the development of HF. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2016 European Society of Cardiology.

Risk newsboy: approach for addressing uncertainty in developing action levels and cleanup limits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger; MacDonell, Margaret

2007-01-01

Site cleanup decisions involve developing action levels and residual limits for key contaminants, to assure health protection during the cleanup period and into the long term. Uncertainty is inherent in the toxicity information used to define these levels, based on incomplete scientific knowledge regarding dose-response relationships across various hazards and exposures at environmentally relevant levels. This problem can be addressed by applying principles used to manage uncertainty in operations research, as illustrated by the newsboy dilemma. Each day a newsboy must balance the risk of buying more papers than he can sell against the risk of not buying enough. Setting action levels and cleanup limits involves a similar concept of balancing and distributing risks and benefits in the face of uncertainty. The newsboy approach can be applied to develop health-based target concentrations for both radiological and chemical contaminants, with stakeholder input being crucial to assessing 'regret' levels. Associated tools include structured expert judgment elicitation to quantify uncertainty in the dose-response relationship, and mathematical techniques such as probabilistic inversion and iterative proportional fitting. (authors)

Review of the controversy on risks from low levels of radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higson, D.

2001-01-01

The need for regulation of low levels of radiation exposure, and the estimation of risks from such exposures, are based on the assumption that risk is proportional to dose without a threshold, the 'linear no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis'. This assumption is not supported by scientific data. There is no clear evidence of harm from low levels of exposure, up to at least 20 mSv (acute dose) or total dose rates of at least 50 mSv per year. Even allowing for reasonable extrapolation from radiation levels at which harmful effects have been observed, the LNT assumption should not be used to estimate risks from doses less than 100 mSv. Laboratory and epidemiological evidence, and evolutionary expectations of biological effects from low level radiation, suggest that beneficial health effects (sometimes called 'radiation hormesis') are at least as likely as harmful effects from such exposures. Controversy on this matter strikes at the basis of radiation protection practice

Risk-based safety indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szikszai, T.

1997-01-01

The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

Science.gov (United States)

Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

2015-03-01

This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

Risk based modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

1993-01-01

Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

A risk-based sensor placement methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

2008-01-01

A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

Application of REVEAL-W to risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dezfuli, H.; Meyer, J.; Modarres, M.

1994-01-01

Over the past two years, the concept of risk-based configuration control has been introduced to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the nuclear industry. Converting much of the current, deterministically based regulation of nuclear power plants to risk-based regulation can result in lower levels of risk while relieving unnecessary burdens on power plant operators and regulatory staff. To achieve the potential benefits of risk-based configuration control, the risk models developed for nuclear power plants should be (1) flexible enough to effectively support necessary risk calculations, and (2) transparent enough to encourage their use by all parties. To address these needs, SCIENTECH, Inc., has developed the PC-based REVEAL W (formerly known as SMART). This graphic-oriented and user-friendly application software allows the user to develop transparent complex logic models based on the concept of the master plant logic diagram. The logic model is success-oriented and compact. The analytical capability built into REVEAL W is generic, so the software can support different types of risk-based evaluations, such as probabilistic safety assessment, accident sequence precursor analysis, design evaluation and configuration management. In this paper, we focus on the application of REVEAL W to support risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plants. (author)

Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

Science.gov (United States)

Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

2016-10-01

This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

1989-11-01

A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs.

Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

1989-11-01

A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs

Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

1993-01-01

OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: making water supply levels transparent to water users

Science.gov (United States)

Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens; Vuren Saskia, Van; der Vat Marnix, Van

2016-04-01

Improving Predictions and Management of Hydrological Extremes (IMPREX), running from 2016-2019, a consortium of the Dutch research institute Deltares and the Dutch water management consultant HKV will design and build a tool to support quantitative risk-informed decision-making for fresh water management for the Netherlands, in particular the decision on water supply service levels. The research will be conducted in collaboration with the Dutch Ministry for Infrastructure and Environment, the Freshwater Supply Programme Office, the Dutch governmental organisation responsible for water management (Rijkswaterstaat), the Foundation for Applied Water Research, (STOWA, knowledge centre of the water boards) and a number of water boards. In the session we will present the conceptual framework for a risk-based approach for water shortage management and share thoughts on how the proposed tool can be applied in the Dutch water management context.

Low-risk factor profile, estrogen levels, and breast cancer risk among postmenopausal women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rod, Naja Hulvej; Hansen, Ase Marie; Nielsen, Jens

2008-01-01

Obesity, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and postmenopausal hormone use are known modifiable risk factors for breast cancer. We aim to measure incidence rates of breast cancer for women with favorable levels on all 4 risk factors (BMI......Obesity, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and postmenopausal hormone use are known modifiable risk factors for breast cancer. We aim to measure incidence rates of breast cancer for women with favorable levels on all 4 risk factors (BMI...

Development of prolonged standing strain index to quantify risk levels of standing jobs.

Science.gov (United States)

Halim, Isa; Omar, Abdul Rahman

2012-01-01

Many occupations in industry such as metal stamping workers, electronics parts assembly operators, automotive industry welders, and lathe operators require working in a standing posture for a long time. Prolonged standing can contribute to discomfort and muscle fatigue particularly in the back and legs. This study developed the prolonged standing strain index (PSSI) to quantify the risk levels caused by standing jobs, and proposed recommendations to minimize the risk levels. Risk factors associated with standing jobs, such as working posture, muscles activity, standing duration, holding time, whole-body vibration, and indoor air quality, were the basis for developing the PSSI. All risk factors were assigned multipliers, and the PSSI was the product of those multipliers. Recommendations for improvement are based on the PSSI; however, extensive studies are required to validate their effectiveness. multipliers, and the PSSI was the product of those multipliers. Recommendations for improvement are based on the PSSI; however, extensive studies are required to validate their effectiveness.

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa

2013-01-01

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)

2013-07-15

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

Life-time risk of mortality due to different levels of alcohol consumption in seven European countries: implications for low-risk drinking guidelines.

Science.gov (United States)

Shield, Kevin D; Gmel, Gerrit; Gmel, Gerhard; Mäkelä, Pia; Probst, Charlotte; Room, Robin; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-09-01

Low-risk alcohol drinking guidelines require a scientific basis that extends beyond individual or group judgements of risk. Life-time mortality risks, judged against established thresholds for acceptable risk, may provide such a basis for guidelines. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate alcohol mortality risks for seven European countries based on different average daily alcohol consumption amounts. The maximum acceptable voluntary premature mortality risk was determined to be one in 1000, with sensitivity analyses of one in 100. Life-time mortality risks for different alcohol consumption levels were estimated by combining disease-specific relative risk and mortality data for seven European countries with different drinking patterns (Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy and Poland). Alcohol consumption data were obtained from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, relative risk data from meta-analyses and mortality information from the World Health Organization. The variation in the life-time mortality risk at drinking levels relevant for setting guidelines was less than that observed at high drinking levels. In Europe, the percentage of adults consuming above a risk threshold of one in 1000 ranged from 20.6 to 32.9% for women and from 35.4 to 54.0% for men. Life-time risk of premature mortality under current guideline maximums ranged from 2.5 to 44.8 deaths per 1000 women in Finland and Estonia, respectively, and from 2.9 to 35.8 deaths per 1000 men in Finland and Estonia, respectively. If based upon an acceptable risk of one in 1000, guideline maximums for Europe should be 8-10 g/day for women and 15-20 g/day for men. If low-risk alcohol guidelines were based on an acceptable risk of one in 1000 premature deaths, then maximums for Europe should be 8-10 g/day for women and 15-20 g/day for men, and some of the current European guidelines would require downward revision. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Pedestrian safety management using the risk-based approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romanowska Aleksandra

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a concept of a multi-level pedestrian safety management system. Three management levels are distinguished: strategic, tactical and operational. The basis for the proposed approach to pedestrian safety management is a risk-based method. In the approach the elements of behavioural and systemic theories were used, allowing for the development of a formalised and repeatable procedure integrating the phases of risk assessment and response to the hazards of road crashes involving pedestrians. Key to the method are tools supporting pedestrian safety management. According to the risk management approach, the tools can be divided into two groups: tools supporting risk assessment and tools supporting risk response. In the paper attention is paid to selected tools supporting risk assessment, with particular emphasis on the methods for estimating forecasted pedestrian safety measures (at strategic, national and regional level and identification of particularly dangerous locations in terms of pedestrian safety at tactical (regional and local and operational level. The proposed pedestrian safety management methods and tools can support road administration in making rational decisions in terms of road safety, safety of road infrastructure, crash elimination measures or reducing the consequences suffered by road users (particularly pedestrians as a result of road crashes.

Semantic risk estimation of suspected minefields based on spatial relationships analysis of minefield indicators from multi-level remote sensing imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Jonathan Cheung-Wai; Sahli, Hichem; Wang, Yuhang

2005-06-01

This paper presents semantic risk estimation of suspected minefields using spatial relationships of minefield indicators extracted from multi-level remote sensing. Both satellite image and pyramidal airborne acquisitions from 900m to 30m flying heights with resolutions from 1m to 2cm resolutions are used for identification of minefield indicators. R-Histogram [1] is a quantitative representation of spatial relationship between two objects in an image. Eight spatial relationships can be generated: 1) LEFT OF, 2) RIGHT OF, 3) ABOVE, 4) BELOW, 5) NEAR, 6) FAR, 7) INSIDE, 8) OUTSIDE. R-Histogram semantics are first generated from selected indicators and metrics such as topological proximity and directional relationships are trained for soft classification of risk index (normalized as 0-1). We presented a framework of how semantic metadata generated from remote sensing images are used in risk estimation. The resultant risk index identified seven out of twelve mine accidents occurred at high risk region. More importantly, comparison with ground truth obtained after mine clearance show that three out of the four identified pattern minefields falls into the area estimated at very high risk. A parcel-based per-field risk estimation can also be easily generated to show the usefulness of the risk index.

Serum iron levels and the risk of Parkinson disease: a Mendelian randomization study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irene Pichler

Full Text Available Although levels of iron are known to be increased in the brains of patients with Parkinson disease (PD, epidemiological evidence on a possible effect of iron blood levels on PD risk is inconclusive, with effects reported in opposite directions. Epidemiological studies suffer from problems of confounding and reverse causation, and mendelian randomization (MR represents an alternative approach to provide unconfounded estimates of the effects of biomarkers on disease. We performed a MR study where genes known to modify iron levels were used as instruments to estimate the effect of iron on PD risk, based on estimates of the genetic effects on both iron and PD obtained from the largest sample meta-analyzed to date.We used as instrumental variables three genetic variants influencing iron levels, HFE rs1800562, HFE rs1799945, and TMPRSS6 rs855791. Estimates of their effect on serum iron were based on a recent genome-wide meta-analysis of 21,567 individuals, while estimates of their effect on PD risk were obtained through meta-analysis of genome-wide and candidate gene studies with 20,809 PD cases and 88,892 controls. Separate MR estimates of the effect of iron on PD were obtained for each variant and pooled by meta-analysis. We investigated heterogeneity across the three estimates as an indication of possible pleiotropy and found no evidence of it. The combined MR estimate showed a statistically significant protective effect of iron, with a relative risk reduction for PD of 3% (95% CI 1%-6%; p = 0.001 per 10 µg/dl increase in serum iron.Our study suggests that increased iron levels are causally associated with a decreased risk of developing PD. Further studies are needed to understand the pathophysiological mechanism of action of serum iron on PD risk before recommendations can be made.

The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

OpenAIRE

Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim; Cockburn, Andrew; Dekant, Wolfgang; Hepburn, Paul; Houben, Geert F.; König, Jürgen; Nauta, Maarten; Schuermans, Jeroen; Bánáti, Diána

2015-01-01

BackgroundFood legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health.Scope and approachThe advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-ba...

Premenopausal Levels of Circulating Insulin-Like Growth Factor I and the Risk of Post-Menopausal Breast Cancer: A Population-Based, Nested Case-Control Study

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Newschaffer, Craig

2002-01-01

High levels of circulating IGF-l may be a risk factor for breast cancer. Only one population-based epidemiologic study of IGF-l and breast cancer measured circulating IGF-l in serum drawn prior to diagnosis...

Risk-based inspection in the context of nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soares, Wellington A.; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Rabello, Emerson G., E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: egr@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2015-07-01

Nuclear power plant owners have to consider several aspects like safety, availability, costs and radiation exposure during operation of nuclear power plants. They also need to demonstrate to regulatory bodies that risk assessment and inspection planning processes are being implemented in effective and appropriate manner. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is a methodology that, unlike time-based inspection, involves a quantitative assessment of both failure probability and consequence associated with each safety-related item. A correctly implemented RBI program classifies individual equipment by its risks and prioritizes inspection efforts based on this classification. While in traditional deterministic approach, the inspection frequencies are constant, in the RBI approach the inspection interval for each item depends on the risk level. Regularly, inspection intervals from RBI result in risk levels lower or equal than deterministic inspection intervals. According to the literature, RBI solutions improve integrity and reduce costs through a more effective inspection. Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI) is the equivalent term used in the nuclear area. Its use in nuclear power plants around world is briefly reviewed in this paper. Identification of practice methodologies for performing risk-based analyses presented in this paper can help both Brazilian nuclear power plant operator and regulatory body in evaluating the RI-ISI technique feasibility as a tool for optimizing inspections within nuclear plants. (author)

Risk-based inspection in the context of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, Wellington A.; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Rabello, Emerson G.

2015-01-01

Nuclear power plant owners have to consider several aspects like safety, availability, costs and radiation exposure during operation of nuclear power plants. They also need to demonstrate to regulatory bodies that risk assessment and inspection planning processes are being implemented in effective and appropriate manner. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is a methodology that, unlike time-based inspection, involves a quantitative assessment of both failure probability and consequence associated with each safety-related item. A correctly implemented RBI program classifies individual equipment by its risks and prioritizes inspection efforts based on this classification. While in traditional deterministic approach, the inspection frequencies are constant, in the RBI approach the inspection interval for each item depends on the risk level. Regularly, inspection intervals from RBI result in risk levels lower or equal than deterministic inspection intervals. According to the literature, RBI solutions improve integrity and reduce costs through a more effective inspection. Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI) is the equivalent term used in the nuclear area. Its use in nuclear power plants around world is briefly reviewed in this paper. Identification of practice methodologies for performing risk-based analyses presented in this paper can help both Brazilian nuclear power plant operator and regulatory body in evaluating the RI-ISI technique feasibility as a tool for optimizing inspections within nuclear plants. (author)

Assessment of cow and farm level risk factors associated with Ureaplasma diversum in pasture-based dairy systems - A field study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JOSEFA M. NASCIMENTO-ROCHA

2017-08-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Potential risk factors for Ureaplasma diversum in the vaginal mucus of 1,238 dairy cows were included in a multivariate logistic regression model, based on the cow level (i.e., granular vulvovaginitis [+GVV], yearly milk production [4500 kg or more], pregnancy, predominance of Bos taurus [+Bos Taurus], score of corporal condition [at least 2.5], concomitant positivity for Escherichia coli [+E.coli], and farm level i.e., milking room hygiene (-Milking room, dunghill location, and replacement female. Ureaplasma diversum was present in 41.1% of the samples. Independent risk factors for U. diversum were +GVV (odds ratio [OR], 1.31; +Mycoplasma spp (OR, 5.67; yearly milk production (4500 kg or more (OR, 1.99; +Bos taurus (OR, 1.68; +E. coli (OR, 4.96; -milking room (OR, 2.31; and replacement females (OR, 1.89. Ureaplasma diversum vaginal colonization was strongly associated with Mycoplasma spp., E. coli, and number of pregnant cows.

Assessment of cow and farm level risk factors associated with Ureaplasma diversum in pasture-based dairy systems - A field study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nascimento-Rocha, Josefa M; Oliveira, Benedito D DE; Arnhold, Emannuel; Pôrto, Regiani N G; Lima, Svetlana F; Gambarini, Maria Lucia

2017-01-01

Potential risk factors for Ureaplasma diversum in the vaginal mucus of 1,238 dairy cows were included in a multivariate logistic regression model, based on the cow level (i.e., granular vulvovaginitis [+GVV], yearly milk production [4500 kg or more], pregnancy, predominance of Bos taurus [+Bos Taurus], score of corporal condition [at least 2.5], concomitant positivity for Escherichia coli [+E.coli]), and farm level i.e., milking room hygiene (-Milking room), dunghill location, and replacement female). Ureaplasma diversum was present in 41.1% of the samples. Independent risk factors for U. diversum were +GVV (odds ratio [OR], 1.31); +Mycoplasma spp (OR, 5.67); yearly milk production (4500 kg or more) (OR, 1.99); +Bos taurus (OR, 1.68); +E. coli (OR, 4.96); -milking room (OR, 2.31); and replacement females (OR, 1.89). Ureaplasma diversum vaginal colonization was strongly associated with Mycoplasma spp., E. coli, and number of pregnant cows.

Average County-Level IQ Predicts County-Level Disadvantage and Several County-Level Mortality Risk Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, J. C.; Beaver, Kevin M.; Boutwell, Brian B.

2013-01-01

Research utilizing individual-level data has reported a link between intelligence (IQ) scores and health problems, including early mortality risk. A growing body of evidence has found similar associations at higher levels of aggregation such as the state- and national-level. At the same time, individual-level research has suggested the…

Serum osteoprotegerin levels and mammographic density among high-risk women.

Science.gov (United States)

Moran, Olivia; Zaman, Tasnim; Eisen, Andrea; Demsky, Rochelle; Blackmore, Kristina; Knight, Julia A; Elser, Christine; Ginsburg, Ophira; Zbuk, Kevin; Yaffe, Martin; Narod, Steven A; Salmena, Leonardo; Kotsopoulos, Joanne

2018-06-01

Mammographic density is a risk factor for breast cancer but the mechanism behind this association is unclear. The receptor activator of nuclear factor κB (RANK)/RANK ligand (RANKL) pathway has been implicated in the development of breast cancer. Given the role of RANK signaling in mammary epithelial cell proliferation, we hypothesized this pathway may also be associated with mammographic density. Osteoprotegerin (OPG), a decoy receptor for RANKL, is known to inhibit RANK signaling. Thus, it is of interest to evaluate whether OPG levels modify breast cancer risk through mammographic density. We quantified serum OPG levels in 57 premenopausal and 43 postmenopausal women using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Cumulus was used to measure percent density, dense area, and non-dense area for each mammographic image. Subjects were classified into high versus low OPG levels based on the median serum OPG level in the entire cohort (115.1 pg/mL). Multivariate models were used to assess the relationship between serum OPG levels and the measures of mammographic density. Serum OPG levels were not associated with mammographic density among premenopausal women (P ≥ 0.42). Among postmenopausal women, those with low serum OPG levels had higher mean percent mammographic density (20.9% vs. 13.7%; P = 0.04) and mean dense area (23.4 cm 2 vs. 15.2 cm 2 ; P = 0.02) compared to those with high serum OPG levels after covariate adjustment. These findings suggest that low OPG levels may be associated with high mammographic density, particularly in postmenopausal women. Targeting RANK signaling may represent a plausible, non-surgical prevention option for high-risk women with high mammographic density, especially those with low circulating OPG levels.

[Physical process based risk assessment of groundwater pollution in the mining area].

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Fa-Sheng; Cheng, Pin; Zhang, Bo

2014-04-01

Case studies of groundwater pollution risk assessment at home and abroad generally start from groundwater vulnerability, without considering the influence of characteristic pollutants on the consequences of pollution too much. Vulnerability is the natural sensitivity of the environment to pollutants. Risk assessment of groundwater pollution should reflect the movement and distribution of pollutants in groundwater. In order to improve the risk assessment theory and method of groundwater pollution, a physical process based risk assessment methodology for groundwater pollution was proposed in a mining area. According to the sensitivity of the economic and social conditions and the possible distribution of pollutants in the future, the spatial distribution of risk levels in aquifer was ranged before hand, and the pollutant source intensity corresponding to each risk level was deduced accordingly. By taking it as the criterion for the classification of groundwater pollution risk assessment, the groundwater pollution risk in the mining area was evaluated by simulating the migration of pollutants in the vadose zone and aquifer. The result show that the risk assessment method of groundwater pollution based on physical process can give the concentration distribution of pollutants and the risk level in the spatial and temporal. For single punctuate polluted area, it gives detailed risk characterization, which is better than the risk assessment method that based on aquifer intrinsic vulnerability index, and it is applicable to the risk assessment of existing polluted sites, optimizing the future sites and providing design parameters for the site construction.

Low-level radiation risks in people

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goloman, M.; Filjushkin, V. lgor

1993-01-01

Using the limited human data plus the relationships derived from the laboratory, a leukemia risk model has been developed as well as a suggested model for other cancers in people exposed to low levels of radiation. Theoretical experimental and epidemiological evidence will be presented in an integrated stochastic model for projection of radiation-induced cancer risks

Risk perception of tsunami in the community of Arauco, Chile - a contribution of risk perception to disaster risk management at local level

Science.gov (United States)

Kubisch, M. Sc. Susanne; Edilia Jaque Castillo, Dra.; Braun, JProf. Andreas Ch., ,, Dr.

2017-04-01

The research was carried out in the city center of the coastal community of Arauco, Central Chile. The community of Arauco was one of the most affected communities of the tsunami in Chile, the 27th of February 2010. For the data evaluation, the affected inhabitants of the community have been surveyed via standardized questionnaires. Furthermore experts of different fields, amongst others, Disaster Risk Management (DRM), risk education, urban and regional planning, as well as geology have been consulted in form of expert interviews. The results revealed a high risk perception part of the affected community and a weakness of DRM especially at local level, which opens a gap between the evaluation and treatment of risk by experts and risk perception of the affected community. The risk perception of the affected community, here, is predominantly determined by ecological vulnerability, expressed in direct and indirect experience of a tsunami and by institutional vulnerability, expressed among others by a weakness of DRM at local level and a mistrust in responsible institutions for DRM. Due to the institutional vulnerability and the mistrust in responsible institutions we recommend a Community Based Approach (CBA) to strengthen DRM at local level and to take advantage of the high risk perception and knowledge of the affected community. Involving the community in DRM, we assume to close the gap between risk evaluation of experts and risk perception of the inhabitants and to come up with the unique necessities and conditions at local level. Especially in centralized countries, DRM is less effective, because at the one hand, decisions are made distant from the affected communities, so that measures often do not come up with the unique conditions and necessities at local level, and on the other hand measures often do not find acceptance by the affected community. Furthermore centralized DRM is often not effective and quick in response in case of emergency. Another obstacle

Association Between Educational Level and Risk of Cancer in HIV-infected Individuals and the Background Population: Population-based Cohort Study 1995-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Legarth, Rebecca; Omland, Lars H; Dalton, Susanne O; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S; Pedersen, Court; Pedersen, Gitte; Gerstoft, Jan; Obel, Niels

2015-11-15

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals have increased risk of cancer. To our knowledge, no previous study has examined the impact of socioeconomic position on risk and prognosis of cancer in HIV infection. Population-based cohort-study, including HIV-infected individuals diagnosed (without intravenous drug abuse or hepatitis C infection) (n = 3205), and a background population cohort matched by age, gender, and country of birth (n = 22 435) were analyzed. Educational level (low or high) and cancer events were identified in Danish national registers. Cumulative incidences, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and survival using Kaplan-Meier methods were estimated. Low educational level was associated with increased risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to population controls: all (adjusted-IRRs: 1.4 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.1-1.7] vs 1.1 [95% CI, .9-1.2]), tobacco- and alcohol-related (2.1 [95% CI, 1.3-3.4] vs 1.3 [95% CI, 1.1-1.6]), and other (1.7 [95% CI, 1.1-2.8] vs 0.9 [95% CI, .7-1.0]). Educational level was not associated with infection-related or ill-defined cancers. One-year-survival was not associated with educational level, but HIV-infected individuals with low educational level had lower 5-year-survival following infection-related and ill-defined cancers. Education is associated with risk and prognosis of some cancers in HIV infection, and diverges from what is observed in the background population. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk-based environmental assessment for uranium mines – Some Canadian and Australian experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phaneuf, M.; McKee, M.; Woods, P.

2014-01-01

The Risk-Based Approach to Environmental Assessment in Australia: • This has emerged over the last 2 decades; • Currently usually based around the Australian and New Zealand standard (AS4360:1999) for risk assessment: • Potential impact events; • Inherent risk levels (e.g. low, moderate) using a matrix approach; • Design and operational control measures; • Residual risk levels; • Outcomes to be achieved; • Outcomes measurement criteria - • Leading to ‘compliance’ monitoring; • Leading indicator criteria - • Leading to ‘early warning’ monitoring

Development of a low-level waste risk methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, J.E.; Falconer, K.L.

1984-01-01

A probabilistic risk assessment method is presented for performance evaluation of low-level waste disposal facilities. The associated program package calculates the risk associated with postulated radionuclide release and transport scenarios. Risk is computed as the mathematical product of two statistical variables: the dose consequence of a given release scenario, and its occurrence probability. A sample risk calculation is included which demonstrates the method. This PRA method will facilitate evaluation of facility performance, including identification of high risk scenarios and their mitigation via optimization of site parameters. The method is intended to be used in facility licensing as a demonstration of compliance with the performance objectives set forth in 10 CFR Part 61, or in corresponding state regulations. The Low-Level Waste Risk Methodology is being developed under sponsorship of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP LEVEL AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN

OpenAIRE

Isaiah, Chioma; Li, Meng (Emma)

2017-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between the level of institutional ownership andrisk-adjusted return on stocks. We find a significant positive relationship between the level ofinstitutional ownership on a stock and its risk-adjusted return. This result holds both in the longrun and in shorter time periods. Our findings suggest that all things being equal, it is possible toobtain risk-adjusted return by going short on the stocks with low institutional ownership andgoing long on those with...

Cancer risk in relation to serum copper levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Coates, R J; Weiss, N S; Daling, J R; Rettmer, R L; Warnick, G R

1989-08-01

A nested, matched case-control study was conducted to assess the relationship between serum levels of copper and the subsequent risk of cancer. One hundred thirty-three cases of cancer were identified during 1974-1984 among 5000 members of a northwest Washington State employee cohort from whom serum specimens had been previously obtained and stored. Two hundred forty-one controls were selected at random from the cohort and were matched to the cases on the basis of age, sex, race, and date of blood draw. Serum copper levels were measured by atomic absorption spectrometry. Risk of a subsequent diagnosis of cancer was positively associated with serum copper levels, but only among those cases diagnosed within 4 years of the time the serum specimens were collected. Among cases diagnosed more than 4 years after specimen collection, there was no consistent association between serum copper levels and risk. Adjustment for age, sex, race, occupational status, cigarette smoking, family history of cancer, alcohol consumption, and, among females, use of exogenous hormones had no appreciable effect on these relationships. The findings suggest that the presence of cancer may increase serum copper levels several years prior to its diagnosis. They are less supportive of the hypothesis that serum copper levels affect cancer risk.

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

Science.gov (United States)

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jidong Chen

2015-12-01

Full Text Available With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions. To extend the fraud risk prevention ability to external customers, Alibaba also built up a big data based fraud prevention product called AntBuckler. AntBuckler aims to identify and prevent all flavors of malicious behaviors with flexibility and intelligence for online merchants and banks. By combining large amount data of Alibaba and customers', AntBuckler uses the RAIN score engine to quantify risk levels of users or transactions for fraud prevention. It also has a user-friendly visualization UI with risk scores, top reasons and fraud connections.

Level of anxiety in parents of high-risk premature twins.

Science.gov (United States)

Zanardo, V; Freato, F; Cereda, C

1998-01-01

We attempted to define parental anxiety in a population of parents of high-risk premature twins (mean birth weight 1,493 +/- 227 kg; mean gestational age 33 +/- 3.5 weeks), admitted to III level NICU. We specifically examined the following factors; gestational age of the twins, whether or not the twins had ventilatory support, pulmonary sequelae, major malformations or intra-ventricular hemorrhage, parental gender and highest level of education obtained by the parent. In the immediate pre-discharge period and a month later, a questionnaire (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory) was given to all parents of premature twins presenting for the discharge. The parents of 30 twins entered the study twice, at the discharge of their first twin (mean postnatal age 40 +/- 32 days), and one month later. They included 15 mothers and 11 fathers, aged 33 +/- 5.5 and 33 +/- 4.2 years, and at the second evaluation 11 mothers and 10 fathers, respectively. As case-controls we examined parental anxiety of fifteen consecutive singleton high-risk prematures, with equal gestational age, discharged immediately after. Our results indicate that the parents of high-risk twin and singleton prematures present an elevated, lasting state-trait anxiety level. Pre- and post-discharge parental anxiety is more elevated (not significant) in twinning with respect to the prematurity alone. When assessed separately by parental gender, in both these groups an increased (not significant) anxiety was persistently found in the mothers. We recommend that, although neonatologists generally define the discharge of the high-risk premature based upon the acquired stabilization of vital parameters, they pay special attention to the twin group we have identified which is at increased risk for predischarge parental anxiety.

Alternative approaches to risk-based technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.; Liner, R.T.; Lofgren, E.V.

1987-01-01

Four alternative risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications are identified. These are: a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) oriented approach; a reliability goal-oriented approach; an approach based on configuration control; a data-oriented approach. Based on preliminary results, the PRA-oriented approach, which has been developed further than the other approaches, seems to offer a logical, quantitative basis for setting Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) for some plant components and systems. The most attractive feature of this approach is that it directly links the AOTs and STIs with the risk associated with the operation of the plant. This would focus the plant operator's and the regulatory agency's attention on the most risk-significant components of the plant. A series of practical issues related to the level of detail and content of the plant PRAs, requirements for the review of these PRAs, and monitoring cf the plant's performance by the regulatory agency must be resolved before the approach could be implemented. Future efforts will examine the other three approaches and their practicality before firm conclusions are drawn regarding the viability of any of these approaches

Communicating Flood Risk with Street-Level Data

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders, B. F.; Matthew, R.; Houston, D.; Cheung, W. H.; Karlin, B.; Schubert, J.; Gallien, T.; Luke, A.; Contreras, S.; Goodrich, K.; Feldman, D.; Basolo, V.; Serrano, K.; Reyes, A.

2015-12-01

Coastal communities around the world face significant and growing flood risks that require an accelerating adaptation response, and fine-resolution urban flood models could serve a pivotal role in enabling communities to meet this need. Such models depict impacts at the level of individual buildings and land parcels or "street level" - the same spatial scale at which individuals are best able to process flood risk information - constituting a powerful tool to help communities build better understandings of flood vulnerabilities and identify cost-effective interventions. To measure understanding of flood risk within a community and the potential impact of street-level models, we carried out a household survey of flood risk awareness in Newport Beach, California, a highly urbanized coastal lowland that presently experiences nuisance flooding from high tides, waves and rainfall and is expected to experience a significant increase in flood frequency and intensity with climate change. Interviews were completed with the aid of a wireless-enabled tablet device that respondents could use to identify areas they understood to be at risk of flooding and to view either a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood map or a more detailed map prepared with a hydrodynamic urban coastal flood model (UCI map) built with grid cells as fine as 3 m resolution and validated with historical flood data. Results indicate differences in the effectiveness of the UCI and FEMA maps at communicating the spatial distribution of flood risk, gender differences in how the maps affect flood understanding, and spatial biases in the perception of flood vulnerabilities.

77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-30

...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

Circulating Cholesterol Levels May Link to the Factors Influencing Parkinson’s Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lijun Zhang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available ObjectivesA growing literature suggests that circulating cholesterol levels have been associated with Parkinson’s disease (PD. In this study, we investigated a possible causal basis for the cholesterol-PD link.MethodsFasting plasma cholesterol levels were obtained from 91 PD and 70 age- and gender-matched controls from an NINDS PD Biomarkers Program cohort at the Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine. Based on the literature, genetic polymorphisms in selected cholesterol management genes (APOE, LDLR, LRP1, and LRPAP1 were chosen as confounding variables because they may influence both cholesterol levels and PD risk. First, the marginal structure model was applied, where the associations of total- and LDL-cholesterol levels with genetic polymorphisms, statin usage, and smoking history were estimated using linear regression. Then, potential causal influences of total- and LDL-cholesterol on PD occurrence were investigated using a generalized propensity score approach in the second step.ResultsBoth statins (p < 0.001 and LRP1 (p < 0.03 influenced total- and LDL-cholesterol levels. There also was a trend for APOE to affect total- and LDL-cholesterol (p = 0.08 for both, and for LRPAR1 to affect LDL-cholesterol (p = 0.05. Conversely, LDLR did not influence plasma cholesterol levels (p > 0.19. Based on propensity score methods, lower total- and LDL-cholesterol were significantly linked to PD (p < 0.001 and p = 0.04, respectively.ConclusionThe current study suggests that circulating total- and LDL-cholesterol levels potentially may be linked to the factor(s influencing PD risk. Further studies to validate these results would impact our understanding of the role of cholesterol as a risk factor in PD, and its relationship to recent public health controversies.

The effect of decentralized behavioral decision making on system-level risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaivanto, Kim

2014-12-01

Certain classes of system-level risk depend partly on decentralized lay decision making. For instance, an organization's network security risk depends partly on its employees' responses to phishing attacks. On a larger scale, the risk within a financial system depends partly on households' responses to mortgage sales pitches. Behavioral economics shows that lay decisionmakers typically depart in systematic ways from the normative rationality of expected utility (EU), and instead display heuristics and biases as captured in the more descriptively accurate prospect theory (PT). In turn, psychological studies show that successful deception ploys eschew direct logical argumentation and instead employ peripheral-route persuasion, manipulation of visceral emotions, urgency, and familiar contextual cues. The detection of phishing emails and inappropriate mortgage contracts may be framed as a binary classification task. Signal detection theory (SDT) offers the standard normative solution, formulated as an optimal cutoff threshold, for distinguishing between good/bad emails or mortgages. In this article, we extend SDT behaviorally by rederiving the optimal cutoff threshold under PT. Furthermore, we incorporate the psychology of deception into determination of SDT's discriminability parameter. With the neo-additive probability weighting function, the optimal cutoff threshold under PT is rendered unique under well-behaved sampling distributions, tractable in computation, and transparent in interpretation. The PT-based cutoff threshold is (i) independent of loss aversion and (ii) more conservative than the classical SDT cutoff threshold. Independently of any possible misalignment between individual-level and system-level misclassification costs, decentralized behavioral decisionmakers are biased toward underdetection, and system-level risk is consequently greater than in analyses predicated upon normative rationality. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk-based safety indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sedlak, J.

2001-12-01

The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

Exposure level from selected base station tower around Kuala Nerus

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Health risk due to RF radiation exposure from base station tower (BST) has been debated for years leading to public concerns. Thus, this preliminary study aims to measure, evaluate and analyze the exposure level on three selected BST around Kuala Nerus. The measurement of exposure level in terms of voltage ...

The risk-based approach to anti-money laundering: problems and solutions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonova, Anna

2011-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper, which is a part of a PhD thesis, is to detect problems associated with the risk-based approach to anti-money laundering (AML), as well as present ways to improve the risk-based approach. Design/methodology/approach – The method is law and economics. The Ph......D thesis itself is also based on a comparative analysis of the Danish and British AML regimes. Findings – The main findings are: failure to develop adequate risk-based AML systems, taking into account varying levels of money laundering risk, is not only to be considered in the context of legal risk...... but also and more importantly in the context of integrity risk; anti-money laundering (AML) has to be made part of financial and non-financial institutions' corporate social responsibility policies; the Risk Analysis Manual provided by the Central Bank of The Netherlands lists very specific...

Design Life Level: Quantifying risk in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Rootzén, Holger; Katz, Richard W.

2013-09-01

In the past, the concepts of return levels and return periods have been standard and important tools for engineering design. However, these concepts are based on the assumption of a stationary climate and do not apply to a changing climate, whether local or global. In this paper, we propose a refined concept, Design Life Level, which quantifies risk in a nonstationary climate and can serve as the basis for communication. In current practice, typical hydrologic risk management focuses on a standard (e.g., in terms of a high quantile corresponding to the specified probability of failure for a single year). Nevertheless, the basic information needed for engineering design should consist of (i) the design life period (e.g., the next 50 years, say 2015-2064); and (ii) the probability (e.g., 5% chance) of a hazardous event (typically, in the form of the hydrologic variable exceeding a high level) occurring during the design life period. Capturing both of these design characteristics, the Design Life Level is defined as an upper quantile (e.g., 5%) of the distribution of the maximum value of the hydrologic variable (e.g., water level) over the design life period. We relate this concept and variants of it to existing literature and illustrate how they, and some useful complementary plots, may be computed and used. One practically important consideration concerns quantifying the statistical uncertainty in estimating a high quantile under nonstationarity.

Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

1996-01-01

Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an 'expert panel.' The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC's increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the open-quotes expert panelclose quotes and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate

Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

1996-12-01

Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an `expert panel.` The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC`s increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the {open_quotes}expert panel{close_quotes} and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate.

Spirometry, questionnaire and electronic medical record based COPD in a population survey: Comparing prevalence, level of agreement and associations with potential risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Borlée, Floor; Yzermans, C Joris; Krop, Esmeralda; Aalders, Bernadette; Rooijackers, Jos; Zock, Jan-Paul; van Dijk, Christel E; Maassen, Catharina B M; Schellevis, François; Heederik, Dick; Smit, Lidwien A M

2017-01-01

COPD-diagnosis is confirmed by post-bronchodilator (BD) spirometry. However, epidemiological studies often rely on pre-BD spirometry, self-reports, or medical records. This population-based study aims to determine COPD-prevalence based on four different operational definitions and their level of agreement, and to compare associations between COPD-definitions and risk factors. COPD-prevalence in 1,793 adults from the general Dutch population (aged 18-70 years) was assessed based on self-reported data, Electronic Medical Records (EMR), and post-BD spirometry: using the FEV1/FVC below the lower limit of normal (LLN) and GOLD fixed cut-off (FEV1/FVC spirometry as a reference, sensitivity was calculated for self-reported and EMR-based COPD. Associations between COPD and known risk factors were assessed with logistic regression. Data were collected as part of the cross-sectional VGO study (Livestock Farming and Neighboring Residents' Health Study). The highest prevalence was found based on spirometry (GOLD: 10.9%, LLN: 5.9%), followed by self-report (4.6%) and EMR (2.9%). Self-reported or EMR-based COPD identified less than 30% of all COPD-cases based on spirometry. The direction of association between known risk factors and COPD was similar across the four definitions, however, magnitude and significance varied. Especially indicators of allergy were more strongly associated with self-reported COPD compared to the other definitions. COPD-prevalence varied depending on the used definition. A substantial number of subjects with spirometry-based COPD cannot be identified with questionnaires or medical records which can cause underestimation of COPD-prevalence. The influence of the different COPD-definitions on associations with known risk factors was limited.

Genetic variation in the base excision repair pathway, environmental risk factors, and colorectal adenoma risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roman Corral

Full Text Available Cigarette smoking, high alcohol intake, and low dietary folate levels are risk factors for colorectal adenomas. Oxidative damage caused by these three factors can be repaired through the base excision repair pathway (BER. We hypothesized that genetic variation in BER might modify colorectal adenoma risk. In a sigmoidoscopy-based study, we examined associations between 182 haplotype tagging SNPs in 14 BER genes, and colorectal adenoma risk, and examined their potential role as modifiers of the effect cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, and dietary folate levels. Among all individuals, no statistically significant associations between BER SNPs and adenoma risk persisted after correction for multiple comparisons. However, among Asian-Pacific Islanders we observed two SNPs in FEN1 and one in NTHL1, and among African-Americans one SNP in APEX1 that were associated with colorectal adenoma risk. Significant associations were also observed between SNPs in the NEIL2 gene and rectal adenoma risk. Three SNPS modified the effect of smoking (MUTYH interaction p = 0.002; OGG1 interaction p = 0.013; FEN1 interaction p = 0.013, one SNP in LIG3 modified the effect of alcohol consumption (interaction p = 0.024 and two SNPs in LIG3 modified the effect of dietary folate (interaction p = 0.001 and p = 0.08 on colorectal adenoma risk. These findings support a role for genetic variants in the BER pathway as potential modifiers of colorectal adenoma risk. Our findings strengthen the role of oxidative damage induced by key lifestyle and dietary risk factors in colorectal adenoma formation.

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Donnelly, K.C.; Safe, S.H. [Texas A& M Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Randerath, K.; Randerath, E. [College Station and Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX (United States)

1994-12-31

To compare the standard chemical-based risk assessment with in vitro genotoxicity assays, two complex environmental mixtures from a wood preserving site were analyzed in the Salmonella/microsome and E. coli prophage induction assays. Using GC/MS, sample 003 was found to contain relatively low levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PNAs) and elevated levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), while sample 005 had higher levels of PNAs and relatively low levels of PCDDs. The complex mixtures were sequentially extracted with methylene chloride and methanol for analysis in Salmonella, or extracted with 1:1 hexane: acetone mixture for analysis in the prophage induction assay. At a dose of 1.0 mg/plate in Salmonella strain TA98 with metabolic activation, the methanol extract of sample 003 induced 197 net revertants, while sample 005 induced 436 net revertants. In the prophage induction assay, with activation, the hexane:acetone extract of sample 003 induced a fold increase that was slightly lower than that observed with sample 005. The estimated incremental carcinogenic risk for dermal adsorption and ingestion was 1.5E-3 for sample 003, while for sample 005 the estimated risk was 1.5E-2. Thus, the sample which induced the maximum response in both bioassays also had the highest estimated cancer risk. However, the frequency of PNA-DNA adducts in both skin and liver tissues was appreciably higher with sample 005 than with sample 003.

Screening Level Risk Assessment for the New Waste Calcining Facility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

M. L. Abbott; K. N. Keck; R. E. Schindler; R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; M. B. Heiser

1999-05-01

This screening level risk assessment evaluates potential adverse human health and ecological impacts resulting from continued operations of the calciner at the New Waste Calcining Facility (NWCF) at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC), Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). The assessment was conducted in accordance with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, Guidance for Performing Screening Level Risk Analyses at Combustion Facilities Burning Hazardous Waste. This screening guidance is intended to give a conservative estimate of the potential risks to determine whether a more refined assessment is warranted. The NWCF uses a fluidized-bed combustor to solidify (calcine) liquid radioactive mixed waste from the INTEC Tank Farm facility. Calciner off volatilized metal species, trace organic compounds, and low-levels of radionuclides. Conservative stack emission rates were calculated based on maximum waste solution feed samples, conservative assumptions for off gas partitioning of metals and organics, stack gas sampling for mercury, and conservative measurements of contaminant removal (decontamination factors) in the off gas treatment system. Stack emissions were modeled using the ISC3 air dispersion model to predict maximum particulate and vapor air concentrations and ground deposition rates. Results demonstrate that NWCF emissions calculated from best-available process knowledge would result in maximum onsite and offsite health and ecological impacts that are less then EPA-established criteria for operation of a combustion facility.

The Association between the Lipids Levels in Blood and Risk of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

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Yafeng Wang

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Lipid metabolism may be involved in the pathogenic mechanism of age-related macular degeneration (AMD. However, conflicting results have been reported in the associations of AMD with blood lipids. We performed a meta-analysis including a total of 19 studies to evaluate associations between blood lipids and this disease. The result reported that the high level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C obtained with an increment of 1 mmol/L could result in a significantly increase in the AMD risk of approximately 18% (relative risk (RR, 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI, 1.01 to 1.35; I2 = 53.8%; p = 0.007. High levels of total cholesterol (TC, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, and triglycerides (TG were significantly associated with a decreased risk of AMD (RRs ranging from 0.92 to 0.95; all p < 0.05. The stratified analysis based on AMD subtypes showed that these blood lipids were only significantly associated with the risk of early AMD (all p < 0.05. The association between the blood lipids and AMD risk did not differ substantially based on the other characteristics of the participants. A high HDL-C level was associated with an increased AMD risk, whereas participants with high TC, LDL-C, and TG concentrations may show a decreased risk for this disease. Further well-designed large studies are warranted to confirm the conclusions.

Toward a Safety Risk-Based Classification of Unmanned Aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2016-01-01

There is a trend of growing interest and demand for greater access of unmanned aircraft (UA) to the National Airspace System (NAS) as the ongoing development of UA technology has created the potential for significant economic benefits. However, the lack of a comprehensive and efficient UA regulatory framework has constrained the number and kinds of UA operations that can be performed. This report presents initial results of a study aimed at defining a safety-risk-based UA classification as a plausible basis for a regulatory framework for UA operating in the NAS. Much of the study up to this point has been at a conceptual high level. The report includes a survey of contextual topics, analysis of safety risk considerations, and initial recommendations for a risk-based approach to safe UA operations in the NAS. The next phase of the study will develop and leverage deeper clarity and insight into practical engineering and regulatory considerations for ensuring that UA operations have an acceptable level of safety.

Control of System with Defined Risk Level

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Pavol Tomasov

2002-01-01

Full Text Available In the following paper the basic requirements for system control with defined risk level is presented. The paper should be an introduction to describe of theoretical apparatus, which was created during some years of research work in the Department of information and safety systems in this area. It a modification or creation of new parts of Information theory, System theory, and Control theory means. This parts are necessary for the analysis and synthesis tasks in the systems where dominant attribute of control is defined risk level. The basic problem is the creation of protect mechanism again the threats from inside and from controlled system environs. For each risk reduction mechanism is needed some redundancy which should be into control algorithm to put by exactly determined way.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among adult patients with primary hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital, Kenya: a criteria-based clinical audit.

Science.gov (United States)

Mwita, Clifford Chacha; Akello, Walter; Sisenda, Gloria; Ogoti, Evans; Tivey, David; Munn, Zachary; Mbogo, David

2013-06-01

Appropriate management of hypertension reduces the risk of death from stroke and cardiac disease and includes routine assessment for target organ damage and estimation of cardiovascular risk. However, implementation of evidence-based hypertension management guidelines is unsatisfactory. We explore the use of audit and feedback as a quality improvement (QI) strategy for reducing the knowledge practice gap in hypertension care in a resource poor setting. The aim of this study is to determine the level of compliance to evidence-based guidelines on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among patients with hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital in central Kenya and to implement best practice with regard to evidence utilisation among clinicians in the hospital. A retrospective clinical audit done in three phases spread over 5 months. Phase one involved identifying five audit criteria on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage in patients with hypertension and conducting a baseline audit in which compliance to audit criteria, blood pressure control and drug prescription practices were assessed. Phase two involved identifying barriers to compliance to audit criteria and strategies to overcoming these barriers. The third phase was a follow-up audit. There was no use of a cardiovascular risk assessment tool in both audits (0% vs. 0%; P = 1.00). Testing urine for haematuria and proteinuria reduced from 13% to 8% (P = 0.230) while taking a blood sample for measuring blood glucose, electrolytes and creatinine levels improved from 11% to 17% (P = 0.401). Performance of fundoscopy and electrocardiography remained unchanged at 2% and 8%, respectively (P = 0.886 and P = 0.898). High patient load was identified as the biggest barrier to implementation of best practice. Blood pressure control improved from 33% to 70% (P ≤ 0.001), whereas the proportion of patients on two or more recommended antihypertensive drugs rose

A spatial scan statistic for nonisotropic two-level risk cluster.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiao-Zhou; Wang, Jin-Feng; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Li, Zhong-Jie; Lai, Sheng-Jie

2012-01-30

Spatial scan statistic methods are commonly used for geographical disease surveillance and cluster detection. The standard spatial scan statistic does not model any variability in the underlying risks of subregions belonging to a detected cluster. For a multilevel risk cluster, the isotonic spatial scan statistic could model a centralized high-risk kernel in the cluster. Because variations in disease risks are anisotropic owing to different social, economical, or transport factors, the real high-risk kernel will not necessarily take the central place in a whole cluster area. We propose a spatial scan statistic for a nonisotropic two-level risk cluster, which could be used to detect a whole cluster and a noncentralized high-risk kernel within the cluster simultaneously. The performance of the three methods was evaluated through an intensive simulation study. Our proposed nonisotropic two-level method showed better power and geographical precision with two-level risk cluster scenarios, especially for a noncentralized high-risk kernel. Our proposed method is illustrated using the hand-foot-mouth disease data in Pingdu City, Shandong, China in May 2009, compared with two other methods. In this practical study, the nonisotropic two-level method is the only way to precisely detect a high-risk area in a detected whole cluster. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suicide Mortality Risk in Kermanshah Province, Iran: A County-level Spatial Analysis

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Mehran Rostami

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Kermanshah province has one of the highest suicide rates in Iran. The aim of this study is to explore spatial variations in the relative risk of suicide across the counties of Kermanshah province. Methods: This is an applied ecological study in which county-level counts of suicide deaths recorded by the forensic medicine organization of Kermanshah province during the period March 21, 2006 to March 20, 2013 have been used. Following a Bayesian approach, Besag, York and Mollie's (BYM model was fitted to the number of suicide deaths of males, females and all persons to make inference about the relative risk of suicide across the counties of the province. Results: Over the study period and based on 95% credible intervals, Kangavar, Harsin and Sonqor counties had significantly lower relative risks of suicide for both males and females, Slas-Babajani, Paveh, Javanrud and Ravansar counties had significantly lower relative risks of suicide only for males and Kermanshah county had a significantly higher relative risk of suicide only for males. The relative risk of suicide for the other counties were not significantly different from the province’s overall risk neither for males nor females. Conclusion: The counties of Kermanshah province can be classified into four categories by the level of relative risk of suicide: low relative risk for both males and females, low relative risk only for males, high relative risk only for males and average relative risk. Findings from this study could be used to specify priority counties for suicide prevention initiatives.

A model for assessing the risk of human trafficking on a local level

Science.gov (United States)

Colegrove, Amanda

Human trafficking is a human rights violation that is difficult to quantify. Models for estimating the number of victims of trafficking presented by previous researchers depend on inconsistent, poor quality data. As an intermediate step to help current efforts by nonprofits to combat human trafficking, this project presents a model that is not dependent on quantitative data specific to human trafficking, but rather profiles the risk of human trafficking at the local level through causative factors. Businesses, indicated by the literature, were weighted based on the presence of characteristics that increase the likelihood of trafficking in persons. The mean risk was calculated by census tract to reveal the multiplicity of risk levels in both rural and urban settings. Results indicate that labor trafficking may be a more diffuse problem in Missouri than sex trafficking. Additionally, spatial patterns of risk remained largely the same regardless of adjustments made to the model.

Differences in cardiovascular risk profile based on relationship between post-load plasma glucose and fasting plasma levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Succurro, Elena; Marini, Maria Adelaide; Grembiale, Alessandro; Lugarà, Marina; Andreozzi, Francesco; Sciacqua, Angela; Hribal, Marta Letizia; Lauro, Renato; Perticone, Francesco; Sesti, Giorgio

2009-05-01

It has been shown that subjects with normal glucose tolerance (NGT), whose plasma glucose (PG) levels do not return to their fasting PG level within 2 h during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) (Group I), have a significantly higher risk to develop type 2 diabetes than NGT subjects whose 2-h glucose returns to, or drops below, the fasting level (Group I). However, it is still unsettled whether individuals in Group II have a more atherogenic profile than Group I subjects. To address this issue, we examined 266 non-diabetic offspring of type 2 diabetic patients, recruited in the context of EUGENE2 cross-sectional study. All subjects underwent an euglycaemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp to assess glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity. Furthermore, cardiovascular risk factors and ultrasound measurement of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) were evaluated. Individuals in Group II exhibited significantly higher waist circumference, blood pressure, triglycerides, 2-h post-load PG, hsC-reactive protein, interleukin-6, insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), IMT, and lower insulin sensitivity than subjects in Group I. Subjects with NGT, whose PG concentration does not return to their fasting PG level within 2 h during OGTT, have an atherogenic profile, suggesting that performing OGTT with measurement of PG every 30 min may be useful to assess the risk for cardiovascular disease in glucose-tolerant subjects.

Higher blood 25(OHD level may reduce the breast cancer risk: evidence from a Chinese population based case-control study and meta-analysis of the observational studies.

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Peizhan Chen

Full Text Available Experimental data suggest a protective effect of vitamin D on breast cancer; however, epidemiologic results remain inclusive. With a Chinese population-based case-control study and meta-analysis of the observational studies, we here systematically evaluated the association of blood 25(OHD level and breast cancer risk. With 593 breast cancer cases and 580 cancer-free controls from Shanghai, China, we found that 80% of the normal women had severe vitamin D deficiency (less than 20 ng/mL and 15.2% had mild deficiency (20 to 30 ng/mL and only 4.8% of women had sufficient vitamin D level (>30 ng/mL while the proportion was 96.1%, 3.2% and 0.7% respectively for the breast cancer patients. Compared to those with the lowest quartile of plasma 25(OHD level, women with highest quartile 25(OHD level showed a significant decreased breast cancer risk (Q4 vs.Q1: OR = 0.10, 95% CI = 0.06-0.15 and every 1 ng/ml increment of plasma 25(OHD level led to a 16% lower odds of breast cancer (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.81-0.87; P<0.001. From the meta-analysis of the observational studies, we found that women with highest quantile of blood 25(OHD level was associated with a significantly reduced breast cancer risk compared to those with lowest quantile of blood 25(OHD level for the 11 nested case-control and retrospective studies (pooled OR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.75-1.00 and 10 case-control studies (7 population based, OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.24-0.52; 3 hospital based, OR = 0.08, 95% CI = 0.02-0.33. These results suggest that vitamin D may have a chemo-preventive effect against breast cancer.

The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Barlow, S.M.; Boobis, A.R.; Bridges, J.; Cockburn, A.; Dekant, W.; Hepburn, P.; Houben, G.F.; König, J.; Nauta, M.J.; Schuermans, J.; Bánáti, D.

2015-01-01

Background: Food legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management

Multimedia risk-based soil cleanup at a gasoline-contaminated site using vapor extraction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, W.B.; Johnson, K.M.; Liu, S.; Loh, J.Y.; Lew, C.S.

1996-01-01

At a utility service center, gasoline from an underground storage tank had leaked into subsurface vadose zone soils for several years. To remediate the site, a soil vapor extraction (SVE) system was installed and operated. At the completion of the SVE operation, gasoline-containing residues in several confirmation soil borings exceeded agency-mandated cleanup levels. Rather than continue with SVE, a risk-based approach was developed to evaluate what levels of gasoline-containing residues could be left in the soil and still protect human health. The risk-based approach consisted of simulating the fate of chemical residues through the vadose zone and then into both the ground water and atmosphere. Receptor point concentrations were predicted, and health risks were assessed. The risk assessment concluded that ingestion of contaminated ground water and inhalation of air while showering were the largest potential contributors to risk, and that risks associated with inhalation of vapor-containing ambient air are small. However, all predicted risks are below the acceptable risk levels of 10 -6 individual cancer risk probability and 1.0 hazard index. Therefore, the lead agency accepted the recommendation that the site requires no further remediation. The service center continues normal operations today

A source term and risk calculations using level 2+PSA methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, S. I.; Jea, M. S.; Jeon, K. D.

2002-01-01

The scope of Level 2+ PSA includes the assessment of dose risk which is associated with the exposures of the radioactive nuclides escaping from nuclear power plants during severe accidents. The establishment of data base for the exposure dose in Korea nuclear power plants may contribute to preparing the accident management programs and periodic safety reviews. In this study the ORIGEN, MELCOR and MACCS code were employed to produce a integrated framework to assess the radiation source term risk. The framework was applied to a reference plant. Using IPE results, the dose rate for the reference plant was calculated quantitatively

The role of perceived air pollution and health risk perception in health symptoms and disease: a population-based study combined with modelled levels of PM10.

Science.gov (United States)

Orru, Kati; Nordin, Steven; Harzia, Hedi; Orru, Hans

2018-03-31

Adverse health impact of air pollution on health may not only be associated with the level of exposure, but rather mediated by perception of the pollution and by top-down processing (e.g. beliefs of the exposure being hazardous), especially in areas with relatively low levels of pollutants. The aim of this study was to test a model that describes interrelations between air pollution (particles pollution, health risk perception, health symptoms and diseases. A population-based questionnaire study was conducted among 1000 Estonian residents (sample was stratified by age, sex, and geographical location) about health risk perception and coping. The PM 10 levels were modelled in 1 × 1 km grids using a Eulerian air quality dispersion model. Respondents were ascribed their annual mean PM 10 exposure according to their home address. Path analysis was performed to test the validity of the model. The data refute the model proposing that exposure level significantly influences symptoms and disease. Instead, the perceived exposure influences symptoms and the effect of perceived exposure on disease is mediated by health risk perception. This relationship is more pronounced in large cities compared to smaller towns or rural areas. Perceived pollution and health risk perception, in particular in large cities, play important roles in understanding and predicting environmentally induced symptoms and diseases at relatively low levels of air pollution.

An approach for determining the acceptable levels of nuclear risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-03-01

The objective of this study was to develop a methodology for determining the acceptable levels of risk with respect to nuclear energy. It was concluded that the Atomic Energy Control Board should identify the interest groups that affect its choice of an acceptable level of risk, determine their expectations, and balance the expectations of the various groups such that the resulting acceptable level of risk is still acceptable to the Board. This would be done by interviewing experts on the subject of nuclear safety, developing and pretesting a public questionnaire, and surveying the public on acceptable cost-risk combinations

Risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szikszai, T.

1997-01-01

The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

Winner's Curse Correction and Variable Thresholding Improve Performance of Polygenic Risk Modeling Based on Genome-Wide Association Study Summary-Level Data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianxin Shi

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Recent heritability analyses have indicated that genome-wide association studies (GWAS have the potential to improve genetic risk prediction for complex diseases based on polygenic risk score (PRS, a simple modelling technique that can be implemented using summary-level data from the discovery samples. We herein propose modifications to improve the performance of PRS. We introduce threshold-dependent winner's-curse adjustments for marginal association coefficients that are used to weight the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in PRS. Further, as a way to incorporate external functional/annotation knowledge that could identify subsets of SNPs highly enriched for associations, we propose variable thresholds for SNPs selection. We applied our methods to GWAS summary-level data of 14 complex diseases. Across all diseases, a simple winner's curse correction uniformly led to enhancement of performance of the models, whereas incorporation of functional SNPs was beneficial only for selected diseases. Compared to the standard PRS algorithm, the proposed methods in combination led to notable gain in efficiency (25-50% increase in the prediction R2 for 5 of 14 diseases. As an example, for GWAS of type 2 diabetes, winner's curse correction improved prediction R2 from 2.29% based on the standard PRS to 3.10% (P = 0.0017 and incorporating functional annotation data further improved R2 to 3.53% (P = 2×10-5. Our simulation studies illustrate why differential treatment of certain categories of functional SNPs, even when shown to be highly enriched for GWAS-heritability, does not lead to proportionate improvement in genetic risk-prediction because of non-uniform linkage disequilibrium structure.

Risk-Based Maintenance Assessment in the Manufacturing Industry: Minimisation of Suboptimal Prioritisation

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Ratnayake R.M. Chandima

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Manufacturing firms continuously strive to increase the efficiency and effectiveness in the maintenance management processes. Focus is placed on eliminating the unexpected failures which cause unnecessary costs and the production losses. Risk-based maintenance (RBM strategies enable to address the above through the identification of probability and consequences of potential failures whilst providing a way for prioritisation of maintenance actions based on the risk of possible failures. Such prioritisations enable to identify the optimal maintenance strategy, intervals of maintenance tasks, and optimal level of spare parts inventory. However, the risk assessment activities are performed with the support of a risk matrix. Suboptimal classifications and/or prioritisations arise due to the inherent nature of the risk matrix. This is caused by the fact that there are no means to incorporate actual circumstances at the boundary of the input ranges or at the levels of linguistic data and risk categories. In this paper, a risk matrix is first developed in collaboration with one of the manufacturing firms in Poland. Then, it illustrates the use of fuzzy logic for minimisation of suboptimal prioritisation and/or classifications using a fuzzy inference system (FIS together with illustrative membership functions and a rule base. Finally, an illustrative risk assessment is also demonstrated to illustrate the methodology.

A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

Science.gov (United States)

Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

2013-11-01

In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.

Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cloninger, T.H.

1997-01-01

This presentation was made by an executive in the utility which operates the South Texas Project reactors, and summarizes their perspective on probabilistic safety analysis, risk-based operation, and risk-based regulation. They view it as a tool to help them better apply their resources to maintain the level of safety necessary to protect the public health and safety. South Texas served as one of the pilot plants for the application of risk-based regulation to the maintenance rule. The author feels that the process presents opportunities as well as challenges. Among the opportunities is the involvement of more people in the process, and the sense of investment they take in the decisions, in addition to the insight they can offer. In the area of challenges there is the need for better understanding of how to apply what already is known on problems, rather than essentially reinventing the wheel to address problems. Research is needed to better understand when some events are not truly of a significant safety concern. The demarcation between deterministic decisions and the appropriate application of risk-based decisions must be better defined, for the sake of the operator as well as the public observing plant operation

Risk-based decision making: The East Fork Poplar Creek case study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moore, D.R.J.; Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W.; Parkhurst, B.R.; Teed, R.S.

1999-12-01

A probabilistic risk assessment revealed that methylmercury released from the US Department of Energy (DOE) Y-12 weapons facility at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, poses moderate risks to mink and kingfishers residing near the receiving waters of East Fork Poplar Creek. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) released from this facility pose severe risks to mink but little risk to kingfishers. The objective of this study was to use a risk-based decision-making approach to select remedial cleanup levels for each of these contaminants. The authors conducted Monte Carlo simulations to estimate total daily intakes of each contaminant by mink (mercury and PCBs) and kingfishers (PCBs only) for a range of exposure-reduction scenarios. The resulting exposure distributions were then integrated with their respective dose-response curves to estimate postremediation risks. The results indicated that total mercury levels in surface water would need to be reduced from current levels (mean = 0.225 {micro}g/L) to 0.03 to 0.05 {micro}g/L to reduce risks to very low levels (<5% probability of {ge}20% mortality) for both mink and kingfishers. If interested parties define acceptable risk as, for example, a 20% probability of {gt} 10% mortality, then mercury levels would need to be reduced to 0.14 {micro}g/L. The PCBs analysis indicated that reducing water-borne exposures would produce only a modest reduction in risk to mink because much of the current exposure is through terrestrial exposure pathways.

Association of Folate Level in Blood with the Risk of Schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Yujie; Ju, Mingliang; He, Lin; Chen, Wenzhong

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between folate level and the risk of schizophrenia and to identify possible biomarker for schizophrenia. Data about folate were extracted from 16 high quality studies. The association of folate level in blood and schizophrenia was evaluated using standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Totally 1183 (52.1%) cases and 1089 (47.9%) controls were included in the current metaanalysis. Folate level in schizophrenia patients was significantly lower than that in healthy controls (SMD= -0.65; 95% CI: [-0.86, -0.45]; P 0.05). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that these results were stable and reliable, no publication bias existed in our meta-analysis based on Egger's and Begg's tests (P=0.48 and 0.30, respectively). These results suggest that decreased folate may be a risk factor for schizophrenia. More epidemiological and biochemistry studies are required to describe how folate or folate supplementation play roles in the progress of schizophrenia. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bari, R.A.

1995-01-01

Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Science.gov (United States)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-01-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

2016-04-19

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk-based fault detection using Self-Organizing Map

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Garaniya, Vikram

2015-01-01

The complexity of modern systems is increasing rapidly and the dominating relationships among system variables have become highly non-linear. This results in difficulty in the identification of a system's operating states. In turn, this difficulty affects the sensitivity of fault detection and imposes a challenge on ensuring the safety of operation. In recent years, Self-Organizing Maps has gained popularity in system monitoring as a robust non-linear dimensionality reduction tool. Self-Organizing Map is able to capture non-linear variations of the system. Therefore, it is sensitive to the change of a system's states leading to early detection of fault. In this paper, a new approach based on Self-Organizing Map is proposed to detect and assess the risk of fault. In addition, probabilistic analysis is applied to characterize the risk of fault into different levels according to the hazard potential to enable a refined monitoring of the system. The proposed approach is applied on two experimental systems. The results from both systems have shown high sensitivity of the proposed approach in detecting and identifying the root cause of faults. The refined monitoring facilitates the determination of the risk of fault and early deployment of remedial actions and safety measures to minimize the potential impact of fault. - Highlights: • A new approach based on Self-Organizing Map is proposed to detect faults. • Integration of fault detection with risk assessment methodology. • Fault risk characterization into different levels to enable focused system monitoring

Physical activity level and fall risk among community-dwelling older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Low, Sok Teng; Balaraman, Thirumalaya

2017-07-01

[Purpose] To find the physical activity level and fall risk among the community-dwelling Malaysian older adults and determine the correlation between them. [Subjects and Methods] A cross-sectional study was conducted in which, the physical activity level was evaluated using the Rapid Assessment of Physical Activity questionnaire and fall risk with Fall Risk Assessment Tool. Subjects recruited were 132 community-dwelling Malaysian older adults using the convenience sampling method. [Results] The majority of the participants were under the category of under-active regular light-activities and most of them reported low fall risk. The statistical analysis using Fisher's exact test did not show a significant correlation between physical activity level and fall risk. [Conclusion] The majority of community-dwelling Malaysian older adults are performing some form of physical activity and in low fall risk category. But this study did not find any significant correlation between physical activity level and fall risk among community-dwelling older adults in Malaysia.

The Association between Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Parental Educational Level in Portuguese Children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael J. Duncan

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine any differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk in Portuguese children split by parental educational level. A cross-sectional school-based study was conducted in 2011 on 359 Portuguese children (202 girls and 157 boys aged 10 to 17 years (mean age ± SD = 13.9 ± 1.98 years. Height and body mass were assessed to determine body mass index (BMI. Parental education level (PEL was used as a surrogate for socioeconomic status (SES. Capillary blood sampling was used to determine: Total Cholesterol (TC, Triglycerides (TG, Fasting Glucos (GLUC, High and Low Density Lipoprotein (HDL/LDL. These measurements were combined with measures of systolic blood pressure and cardiorespiratory fitness as z-scores. CVD risk was constructed by summing the z-scores. Analysis of covariance, controlling for BMI, indicated that CVD risk was significantly different across PEL groups (p = 0.01, with CVD risk score being significantly lower in low (p = 0.04 and middle (p = 0.008 PEL groups, compared to high PEL. Moreover, the covariate, BMI was also significant (p = 0.0001, β = 0.023, evidencing a significant positive association between BMI and CVD risk, with higher BMI associated with greater CVD risk. In Portuguese children, significantly greater CVD risk was found for children of high PEL, while higher BMI was associated with greater CVD risk.

Association of Practice-Level Social and Medical Risk With Performance in the Medicare Physician Value-Based Payment Modifier Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lena M; Epstein, Arnold M; Orav, E John; Filice, Clara E; Samson, Lok Wong; Joynt Maddox, Karen E

2017-08-01

Medicare recently launched the Physician Value-Based Payment Modifier (PVBM) Program, a mandatory pay-for-performance program for physician practices. Little is known about performance by practices that serve socially or medically high-risk patients. To compare performance in the PVBM Program by practice characteristics. Cross-sectional observational study using PVBM Program data for payments made in 2015 based on performance of large US physician practices caring for fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in 2013. High social risk (defined as practices in the top quartile of proportion of patients dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid) and high medical risk (defined as practices in the top quartile of mean Hierarchical Condition Category risk score among fee-for-service beneficiaries). Quality and cost z scores based on a composite of individual measures. Higher z scores reflect better performance on quality; lower scores, better performance on costs. Among 899 physician practices with 5 189 880 beneficiaries, 547 practices were categorized as low risk (neither high social nor high medical risk) (mean, 7909 beneficiaries; mean, 320 clinicians), 128 were high medical risk only (mean, 3675 beneficiaries; mean, 370 clinicians), 102 were high social risk only (mean, 1635 beneficiaries; mean, 284 clinicians), and 122 were high medical and social risk (mean, 1858 beneficiaries; mean, 269 clinicians). Practices categorized as low risk performed the best on the composite quality score (z score, 0.18 [95% CI, 0.09 to 0.28]) compared with each of the practices categorized as high risk (high medical risk only: z score, -0.55 [95% CI, -0.77 to -0.32]; high social risk only: z score, -0.86 [95% CI, -1.17 to -0.54]; and high medical and social risk: -0.78 [95% CI, -1.04 to -0.51]) (P risk only performed the best on the composite cost score (z score, -0.52 [95% CI, -0.71 to -0.33]), low risk had the next best cost score (z score, -0.18 [95% CI, -0.25 to -0.10]), then

76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-11

... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

Correlation of plasma B-type natriuretic peptide levels with metabolic risk markers.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahued-Ortega, José Armando; León-García, Plácido Enrique; Hernández-Pérez, Elizabeth

2018-04-17

Natriuretic peptide type B (BNP) is a marker of myocardium injury. This peptide has been associated with metabolic risk markers, although controversy exists in this regard. The aim of the present study was to determine the correlation of plasma BNP levels with metabolic risk parameters. A retrospective, observational study that included 152 patients, who were classified according to their clinical diagnosis as patients with metabolic syndrome. Plasma BNP levels and clinical metabolic parameters were assessed by using Spearmańs rank correlation coefficient. A significant inverse association with weight (r=-.408; p<.0001) and BMI (r=-.443; p<.001) was obtained. While a positive significant association with systolic pressure (r=.324; p<.001) was observed. A significant decrease was found in BNP levels and components of metabolic syndrome. (p<.05). Based on the results from this study, we can conclude that BNP determination could be an adequate metabolic marker. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Childhood leukaemia and low-level radiation - are we underestimating the risk?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wakeford, R.

1996-01-01

The Seascale childhood leukaemia 'cluster' can be interpreted as indicating that the risk of childhood leukaemia arising from low-level exposure to ionising radiation has been underestimated. Indeed, several variants of such an interpretation have been advanced. These include exposure to particular radionuclides, an underestimation of the radiation risk coefficient for childhood leukaemia, and the existence of a previously unrecognized risk of childhood leukaemia from the preconceptional irradiation of fathers. However, the scientific assessment of epidemiological associations is a complex matter, and such associations must be interpreted with caution. It would now seem most likely that the Seascale 'cluster' does not represent an unanticipated effect of the exposure to ionising radiation, but rather the effect of unusual population mixing generated by the Sellafield site which has produced an increase in the infection-based risk of childhood leukaemia. This episode in the history of epidemiological research provides a timely reminder of the need for great care in the interpretation-of novel statistical associations. (author)

Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

1987-01-01

The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

Mercury levels and potential risk from subsistence foods from the Aleutians.

Science.gov (United States)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Jeitner, Christian; Burke, Sean; Stamm, Tim; Snigaroff, Ronald; Snigaroff, Dan; Patrick, Robert; Weston, Jim

2007-10-01

Considerable attention has been devoted to contaminants (mainly PCBs and mercury) in subsistence foods (particularly fish) from various parts of the world. However, relatively little attention has been devoted to examining mercury levels in a full range of subsistence foods from a particular region. While managers and scientists compute risk based on site-specific data on contaminant levels and consumption rates, a first step in making risk decisions by subsistence peoples is knowledge about the relative levels of mercury in the foods they eat. This study examined levels of mercury in subsistence foods (edible components) from several islands in the western Aleutians of Alaska, including algae (4 species), invertebrates (9 species), fish (15 species) and birds (5 species). Samples were gathered by both subsistence hunters/fishers and by scientists using the same equipment. Another objective was to determine if there were differences in mercury levels in subsistence foods gathered from different Aleutian islands. We tested the null hypotheses that there were no interspecific and interisland differences in mercury levels. Because of variation in distribution and the nature of subsistence hunting and fishing, not all organisms were collected from each of the islands. There were significant and important differences in mercury levels among species, but the locational differences were rather small. There was an order of magnitude difference between algae/some invertebrates and fish/birds. Even within fish, there were significant differences. The highest mean mercury levels were in flathead sole (Hippoglossoides elassodon, 0.277 ppm), yellow irish lord (Hemilepidotus jardani, 0.281 ppm), great sculpin (Myoxocephalus polyacanthocephalus, 0.366 ppm), glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens, 0.329 ppm) and its eggs (0.364 ppm), and pigeon guillemot (Cepphus columba, 0.494 ppm). Mercury levels increased with increasing weight of the organisms for limpets (Tectura scutum

RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

OpenAIRE

Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

2011-01-01

Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based Requirements Prioritization method (RiskREP) that extends misuse case-based methods with IT architecture based risk assessment and countermeasure definition and prioritization. Countermeasure prioritizati...

Plasma levels of n-3 fatty acids and risk of coronary heart disease among Japanese: The Japan Public Health Center-based (JPHC) study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamazaki, Kei; Iso, Hiroyasu; Eshak, Ehab S; Ikehara, Satoyo; Ikeda, Ai; Iwasaki, Motoki; Hamazaki, Tomohito; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2018-05-01

Higher intake of fish or n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) has been associated with reduced risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). However, it is unclear whether increased blood levels of n-3 PUFAs are associated with reduced risk of CHD in the Japanese population. The relationship between circulating levels of n-3 PUFAs (eicosapentaenoic acid + docosapentaenoic acid + docosahexaenoic acid) and risk of CHD was examined in a nested case-control study among participants in the Japan Public Health Center (JPHC)-based Study Cohort. Plasma n-3 PUFA phospholipid levels were measured at baseline by gas chromatography in 209 cases with CHD and 418 controls matched for sex, age, date of blood draw, time elapsed since last meal before blood collection, and study location. The CHD cases (n = 209) comprised 168 cases of myocardial infarction and 41 of sudden cardiac death, otherwise classified as 157 non-fatal and 52 fatal coronary events, respectively. Mean duration of follow-up was 13.5 years. Multivariate conditional logistic analysis showed no significant association between n-3 PUFAs and risk of total CHD. The odds ratio (OR) for the highest versus lowest quartiles of plasma n-3 PUFAs was 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.41-1.51, p for trend = 0.51). Subtype analysis of CHD revealed that the multivariate ORs for the highest versus lowest quartiles for n-3 PUFAs were 0.91 (95% CI: 0.43-1.89, p for trend = 0.90) for myocardial infarction, 0.08 (95% CI: 0.01-0.88, p for trend = 0.04) for sudden cardiac death, 0.89 (95% CI: 0.42-1.89, p for trend = 0.97) for nonfatal coronary events, and 0.12 (95% CI: 0.02-0.75, p for trend = 0.03) for fatal coronary events. Plasma n-3 PUFA levels were not associated with risk of total CHD but were inversely associated with risks of sudden cardiac death and fatal coronary events among middle-aged Japanese individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

OpenAIRE

Neumann, James; Ludwig, Lindsay; Verly, Caroleen; Emanuel, Kerry Andrew; Ravela, Srinivas

2015-01-01

This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam an area already known to be highly vulnerable to coastal risks. By combining a range of sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with the simulated storm surge level for the 100-year storm surge, we analyze permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones. As is well-established in the literature, sea level rise will increase the risk of storms by raising the base sea level from which surg...

Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

2007-01-01

Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

1992-01-01

When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

The Two C”s of the Risk-Based Approach to Goal based Standards: Challenges and Caveats

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Zachariadis, Panos

2007-01-01

industry has begun to move from a reactive to a proactive approach to safety through “Formal Safety Assessment” (FSA) and “Goal Based Standards” (GBS). FSA was introduced by the IMO as “a rational and systematic process for accessing the risk related to maritime safety and the protection of the marine...... environment and for evaluating the costs and benefits of IMO’s options for reducing these risks”. The recent GBS approach aims to be another proactive instrument, and there has been recent discussion in the IMO on the possible links between FSA and GBS. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used......, but confusing to many, notions such as Risk Based Rulemaking vs. Risk Based Design, and IMO's GBS Traditional Approach vs. Safety Level Approach, and the implications of their use, or misuse, to future ship rulemaking, design and safety. The paper elaborates on some identified weaknesses of the risk based...

Breast cancer screening in an era of personalized regimens: a conceptual model and National Cancer Institute initiative for risk-based and preference-based approaches at a population level.

Science.gov (United States)

Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F; Sprague, Brian L; Barlow, William E; Haas, Jennifer S; Tosteson, Anna N A; D Schnall, Mitchell; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L; Conant, Emily F

2014-10-01

Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women's health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for "overdiagnosis," and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a "1-size-fits-all" guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women's risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Increased risk for diabetes development in subjects with large variation in total cholesterol levels in 2,827,950 Koreans: A nationwide population-based study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eun-Jung Rhee

Full Text Available Recent studies suggest a role for hyperlipidemia in the development of diabetes. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between variations of total cholesterol (TC levels and the risk for type 2 diabetes development from a Korean nationwide population-based database.We examined the General Health Check-up sub-dataset of the Korean National Health Insurance Service (NHIS of 2,827,950 participants who had at least three health check-ups between 2002 and 2007, and were not reported to have diabetes during that time. The variations of TC levels between the examinations were calculated as follows: [Formula: see text]. The examinees were divided into 10 groups according to TC variation, and the hazard ratio for diabetes development from 2007 to 2013, were analyzed.During the follow-up period, 3.4% of the participants had developed diabetes. The hazard ratio (HR for diabetes development relative to the overall risk in the whole study population started to be higher than 1.0 from eighth decile of TC variation. The highest decile group showed an increased HR for diabetes development after adjustment for confounding variables (1.139; 95% confidence interval 1.116~1.163. These results were similar regardless of the use of anti-hyperlipidemic medication and baseline TC levels.The participants with a large variation in TC levels showed an increased risk for diabetes development, independent of the use of anti-hyperlipidemic medications. These results suggest a relationship between fluctuations in lipid levels and the development of type 2 diabetes.

Risks of low-level radiation - the evidence of epidemiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gloag, D.

1980-01-01

The difficulties involved in estimating risks from very low levels of radiation and the use of dose-response models for cancer incidence are discussed with reference to the third BEIR Committee report on the Effects on Populations of Exposure to low levels of Ionizing Radiation (1980). Cancer risk estimates derived from different epidemiological studies are reviewed. They include atom bomb survivors, medically irradiated groups and occupational groups. (36 references). (author)

Risk communication system for high level radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kugo, Akihide; Uda, Akinobu; Shimoda, Hirosi; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Ito, Kyoko; Wakabayashi, Yasunaga

2005-01-01

In order to gain a better understanding and acceptance of the task of implementing high level radioactive waste disposal, a study on new communication system about social risk information has been initiated by noticing the rapid expansion of Internet in the society. First, text mining method was introduced to identify the core public interest, examining public comments on the technical report of high level radioactive waste disposal. Then we designed the dialog-mode contents based on the theory of norm activation by Schwartz. Finally, the discussion board was mounted on the web site. By constructing such web communication system which includes knowledge base contents, introspective contents, and interactive discussion board, we conducted the experiment for verifying the principles such as that the basic technical knowledge and trust, and social ethics are indispensable in this process to close the perception gap between nuclear specialists and the general public. The participants of the experiment increased their interest in the topics with which they were not familiar and actively posted their opinions on the BBS. The dialog-mode contents were significantly more effective than the knowledge-based contents in promoting introspection that brought people into a greater awareness of problems such as social dilemma. (author)

[Evaluation of Suicide Risk Levels in Hospitals: Validity and Reliability Tests].

Science.gov (United States)

Macagnino, Sandro; Steinert, Tilman; Uhlmann, Carmen

2018-05-01

Examination of in-hospital suicide risk levels concerning their validity and their reliability. The internal suicide risk levels were evaluated in a cross sectional study of in 163 inpatients. A reliability check was performed via determining interrater-reliability of senior physician, therapist and the responsible nurse. Within the scope of the validity check, we conducted analyses of criterion validity and construct validity. For the total sample an "acceptable" to "good" interrater-reliability (Kendalls W = .77) of suicide risk levels were obtained. Schizophrenic disorders showed the lowest values, for personality disorders we found the highest level of interrater-reliability. When examining the criterion validity, Item-9 of the BDI-II is substantial correlated to our suicide risk levels (ρ m  = .54, p validity check, affective disorders showed the highest correlation (ρ = .77), compatible also with "convergent validity". They differed with schizophrenic disorders which showed the least concordance (ρ = .43). In-hospital suicide risk levels may represent an important contribution to the assessment of suicidal behavior of inpatients experiencing psychiatric treatment due to their overall good validity and reliability. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Association of dental enamel lead levels with risk factors for environmental exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Olympio, Kelly Polido Kaneshiro; Naozuka, Juliana; Oliveira, Pedro Vitoriano; Cardoso, Maria Regina Alves; Bechara, Etelvino José Henriques; Günther, Wanda Maria Risso

2010-10-01

To analyze household risk factors associated with high lead levels in surface dental enamel. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 160 Brazilian adolescents aged 1418 years living in poor neighborhoods in the city of Bauru, southeastern Brazil, from August to December 2008. Body lead concentrations were assessed in surface dental enamel acid-etch microbiopsies. Dental enamel lead levels were measured by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry and phosphorus levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. The parents answered a questionnaire about their children's potential early (05 years old) exposure to well-known lead sources. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between dental enamel lead levels and each environmental risk factor studied. Social and familial covariables were included in the models. The results suggest that the adolescents studied were exposed to lead sources during their first years of life. Risk factors associated with high dental enamel lead levels were living in or close to a contaminated area (OR = 4.49; 95% CI: 1.69;11.97); and member of the household worked in the manufacturing of paints, paint pigments, ceramics or batteries (OR = 3.43; 95% CI: 1.31;9.00). Home-based use of lead-glazed ceramics, low-quality pirated toys, anticorrosive paint on gates and/or sale of used car batteries (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 0.56;3.03) and smoking (OR = 1.66; 95% CI: 0.52;5.28) were not found to be associated with high dental enamel lead levels. Surface dental enamel can be used as a marker of past environmental exposure to lead and lead concentrations detected are associated to well-known sources of lead contamination.

Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

Science.gov (United States)

Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

2014-12-01

Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

Risk assessment and reliability for low level radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gregory, P.O.; Jones, G.A.

1986-01-01

The reliability of critical design features at low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities is a major concern in the licensing of these structures. To date, no systematic methodology has been adopted to evaluate the geotechnical reliability of Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) disposal facilities currently being designed and/or constructed. This paper discusses and critiques the deterministic methods currently used to evaluate UMTRA reliability. Because deterministic methods may not be applicable in some cases because of the unusually long design life of UMTRA facilities, it is proposed that a probabilistic risk assessment-based methodology be used as a secondary method to aid in the evaluating of geotechnical reliability of critical items. Similar methodologies have proven successful in evaluating the reliability of a variety of conventional earth structures. In this paper, an ''acceptable'' level of risk for UMTRA facilities is developed, an evaluation method is presented, and two example applications of the proposed methodology are provided for a generic UMTRA disposal facility. The proposed technique is shown to be a simple method which might be used to aid in reliability evaluations on a selective basis. Finally, other possible applications and the limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed

Risk-based and deterministic regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

1995-07-01

Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

Professional stress in general practitioners and psychiatrists: The level of psycologic distress and burnout risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vićentić Sreten

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. So far, studies of stress have shown that physicians are at a high risk of sickness from psychic and somatic disorders related to professional stress, that can lead to important disturbance of personal, familiar and professional functionating. The aim of this study was to investigate the doctors exposition level to professional stress, to compare stress level in general practitioners (GP group with that in the group of psychiatrists and risk level for the apperance of burnout syndrome. Methods. This cross-section study included subjects recruited by a random sample method. Thirty General Practice doctors and 30 psychiatrists (totally 60 doctors filled the set of 3 questionnaires: Sociodemographics features, General Health Questionnaire (GHQ; Goldberg D, 1991, and Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI; Maslach C, 1996. Appropriate statistical procedures (Pearson test, t-test, variance analysis in interpretation of the results were used. Results. A total level of psychic distress measured with the GHQ test in both groups of physicians was very low implying their good mental health. A difference in Burnout risk based on MBI test between the groups was statistically significant (χ2 = 4,286; p < 0.05 only at subscale Personal Accomplishment (MBI-PA; it was a consequence of a higher number of GPs with medium burnout risk (13.3 : 0.0%. However, even 35 physicians from the sample were affected with a high burnout risk measured with subscales Emotional Ehausation (MBI-EE and MBI-DP, showing that both groups of physicians had risk for the appearance of burnout syndrome. Conclusion. The obtained results showed a high burnout risk level in both, GPs and psychiatrists, groups. In both groups there was no presence of psychic disorders (anxiety, depression, insomnia, while there was a high level of emotional ehausation and overtension by job, and also a lower total personal accomplishment. Level of exposition to professional stress is higher in GPs

Neighborhood level health risk assessment of lead paint removal activities from elevated steel bridges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Conway, R.F.; Cohen, J.T.; Bowers, T.

1999-07-01

The New York City Department of Transportation (NYCDOT) has adopted strict containment and monitoring procedures during paint removal activities on its bridges because of the increasing awareness about lead poisoning in children in urban environments and the potential risk of lead-based paint releases during those activities. NYCDOT owns nearly 800 bridges scattered throughout New York City. Before undertaking paint removal activities as part of its ongoing preventive maintenance and rehabilitation program, NYCDOT recently conducted an analysis to determine the public health risk posed to children living near them. The analysis the first of its kind to assess the actual public health risk potential during both routine operations and upset conditions, or accidental releases evaluated the total and incremental blood lead levels from paint removal activities on more than 5,000 children from 6 months to 6 years old. Increases in baseline blood lead levels were estimated using several models, including EPA's Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model. This model estimates steady-state blood lead levels in children, reflecting exposure to lead in multiple media over an extended period of time. Increases in lead exposure from paint removal activities in the area surrounding the bridges was estimated using EPA's Industrial Source Complex (ISC3) model to calculate ambient air and deposition levels. Potential releases from the containment and ancillary equipment used in the paint removal process were modeled based on different release scenarios ranging from routine operations to complete failure of containment. To estimate the paint removal activities' contribution to long-term exterior dust lead levels (and its related interior component), a stochastic simulation model was developed for each block in the study area.

Concussions in Community-Level Rugby: Risk, Knowledge, and Attitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, R Kyle; Hrubeniuk, Travis J; Witiw, Christopher D; MacDonald, Peter; Leiter, Jeff

Rugby is a popular collision sport where participants are at risk of sustaining concussions. Most research focuses on elite-level or youth divisions. Comparatively, little is known about adult community rugby. The aim of this research was to estimate the risk of sustaining a concussion during participation in community-level rugby and summarize the collective knowledge and attitudes toward concussions. Concussion symptoms will be reported frequently among community-level rugby players and a substantial proportion will report a willingness to continue participation despite the risk. Cross-sectional analysis. Level 3. An anonymous, voluntary survey was administered to all 464 senior rugby players registered in the province of Manitoba in 2015. Two primary domains were assessed: (1) concussion history from the preceding season including occurrence, symptomatology, and impact on daily activities and (2) knowledge and attitudes toward concussion risks and management. In total, 284 (61.2%) rugby players responded. Concussive symptoms were reported by 106 (37.3%). Of those, 87% were formally diagnosed with a concussion and 27% missed school and/or work as a result. The danger of playing while symptomatic was recognized by 93.7% of participants, yet 29% indicated they would continue while symptomatic. Furthermore, 39% felt they were letting others down if they stopped playing due to a concussion. Concussive symptoms were common among the study cohort and had a notable impact on daily activities. A high proportion of players were willing to continue while experiencing symptoms despite recognizing the danger. The observed discord between knowledge and attitudes implicates a culture of "playing injured." Understanding the risk of injury may affect an individual's decision to participate in community-level rugby. Moreover, evidence of discord between the knowledge and attitudes of players may direct future research initiatives and league governance.

Extreme Bilirubin Levels as a Causal Risk Factor for Symptomatic Gallstone Disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stender, Stefan; Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth; Nordestgaard, Børge G

2013-01-01

In individuals without blockage of their bile ducts, levels of plasma bilirubin likely reflect levels of biliary bilirubin; higher biliary bilirubin levels may increase the risk of gallstone disease.......In individuals without blockage of their bile ducts, levels of plasma bilirubin likely reflect levels of biliary bilirubin; higher biliary bilirubin levels may increase the risk of gallstone disease....

China's community-based strategy of universal preconception care in rural areas at a population level using a novel risk classification system for stratifying couples´ preconception health status.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Qiongjie; Zhang, Shikun; Wang, Qiaomei; Shen, Haiping; Tian, Weidong; Chen, Jingqi; Acharya, Ganesh; Li, Xiaotian

2016-12-28

Preconception care (PCC) is recommended for optimizing a woman's health prior to pregnancy to minimize the risk of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the impact of strategy and a novel risk classification model of China´s "National Preconception Health Care Project" (NPHCP) in identifying risk factors and stratifying couples' preconception health status. We performed a secondary analysis of data collected by NPHCP during April 2010 to December 2012 in 220 selected counties in China. All couples enrolled in the project accepted free preconception health examination, risk evaluation, health education and medical advice. Risk factors were categorized into five preconception risk classes based on their amenability to prevention and treatment: A-avoidable risk factors, B- benefiting from targeted medical intervention, C-controllable but requiring close monitoring and treatment during pregnancy, D-diagnosable prenatally but not modifiable preconceptionally, X-pregnancy not advisable. Information on each couple´s socio-demographic and health status was recorded and further analyzed. Among the 2,142,849 couples who were enrolled to this study, the majority (92.36%) were from rural areas with low education levels (89.2% women and 88.3% men had education below university level). A total of 1463266 (68.29%) couples had one or more preconception risk factors mainly of category A, B and C, among which 46.25% were women and 51.92% were men. Category A risk factors were more common among men compared with women (38.13% versus 11.24%; P = 0.000). This project provided new insights into preconception health of Chinese couples of reproductive age. More than half of the male partners planning to father a child, were exposed to risk factors during the preconception period, suggesting that an integrated approach to PCC including both women and men is justified. Stratification based on the new risk classification model demonstrated that a majority of the

Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, D.R.

1980-01-01

Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes

Development of a risk-based approach to Hanford site cleanup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hesser, W.A.

1996-01-01

In response to a request from Mr. Thomas Grumbly, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environmental Management, the Hanford Site contractors developed a set of risk-based cleanup strategies that (1) protect the public, workers, and environment from unacceptable risks; (2) are executable technically; and (3) fit within currently expected annual funding profiles. These strategies were developed because (1) the U.S. Department of Energy and Hanford Site budgets are being reduced, (2) stakeholders are dissatisfied with the perceived rate of cleanup, (3) the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Department of Energy are increasingly focusing on risk and risk-reduction activities, (4) the present strategy is not integrated across the Site and is inconsistent in its treatment of similar hazards, (5) the present cleanup strategy is not cost-effective from a risk-reduction or future land use perspective, and (6) the milestones and activities in the Tri-Party Agreement cannot be achieved with an anticipated funding of 1.05 billion dollars, or less, annually. This analysis produced a framework and a set of tools that are available for dealing with changes to anticipated funding levels, changes in risk cleanup standards, and Congressional initiatives and inquiries. The tools include land-supply curves, cost profiles, risk profiles, mortgage reduction curves, and minimum operations costs. This paper describes the methodology used to develop mortgage-based, risk-based, and land-based cleanup strategies and how those strategies differ in terms of the work to be performed, its sequence, and the resulting end states

Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

1995-01-01

This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Jeng-Hsiang

2018-04-01

Flat earthquake premiums are 'uniformly' set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk-based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

Risk-based Optimization and Reliability Levels of Coastal Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, H. F.

Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure, in...... on the minimumcost reliability levels is investigated for different values of the real rate of interest, the service lifetime, the downtime costs due to malfunction and the decommission costs.......Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure...

Risk-based Optimization and Reliability Levels of Coastal Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, Hans F.

2005-01-01

 Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure, i...... on the minimumcost reliability levels is investigated for different values of the real rate of interest, the service lifetime, the downtime costs due to malfunction and the decommission costs....... Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure...

Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

Science.gov (United States)

Leitner, Jesse

2016-01-01

This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

Association of dental enamel lead levels with risk factors for environmental exposure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelly Polido Kaneshiro Olympio

2010-10-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To analyze household risk factors associated with high lead levels in surface dental enamel. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 160 Brazilian adolescents aged 14-18 years living in poor neighborhoods in the city of Bauru, southeastern Brazil, from August to December 2008. Body lead concentrations were assessed in surface dental enamel acid-etch microbiopsies. Dental enamel lead levels were measured by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry and phosphorus levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. The parents answered a questionnaire about their children's potential early (05 years old exposure to well-known lead sources. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between dental enamel lead levels and each environmental risk factor studied. Social and familial covariables were included in the models. RESULTS: The results suggest that the adolescents studied were exposed to lead sources during their first years of life. Risk factors associated with high dental enamel lead levels were living in or close to a contaminated area (OR = 4.49; 95% CI: 1.69;11.97; and member of the household worked in the manufacturing of paints, paint pigments, ceramics or batteries (OR = 3.43; 95% CI: 1.31;9.00. Home-based use of lead-glazed ceramics, low-quality pirated toys, anticorrosive paint on gates and/or sale of used car batteries (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 0.56;3.03 and smoking (OR = 1.66; 95% CI: 0.52;5.28 were not found to be associated with high dental enamel lead levels. CONCLUSIONS: Surface dental enamel can be used as a marker of past environmental exposure to lead and lead concentrations detected are associated to well-known sources of lead contamination.

Perceptions of industrial and nuclear risks. Stakes, negotiations and social development of levels of risk acceptance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernier, S.Ch.

2007-11-01

In this thesis we will question the perceptions of industrial risks in the occidental world at the beginning of the 21. century. For this purpose we will try to understand how concepts such as sustainable development, precautionary principle, liability, or even zero-risk bias have progressively developed around a thought model based on the scientific rationality. This model is now undermined by its incapacity to fully address the issues it raises and completely avoid the potential risks. However, despite consistent weaknesses, it remains a reference value moulded by past accidents which have led to the making of laws aiming mainly at defining liability and protecting those who are held liable. Thus, public information becomes a requirement for democracy and the protection of this thought model. In this context, the protagonists at stake are security-conscious, economical and political lobbies that constantly redefine the limits of risk acceptance. We come to the realization that our lifestyle and value system remain unchallenged even though undergoing a crisis. The specificity of this research lies into the importance we give to the local approach, dealing with registered Seveso sites and nuclear plants located in Indre et Loire. We have polled five categories of respondents through interviews or questionnaires in order to understand their opinion regarding situations involving technological risks. The result of this survey helps us understand and set the levels of risk acceptance that they define with regard to the industrial risks and show the complexity of a situation involving political stakes, environmental pressures, a profit-driven economy and security constraints, in a vague and complex context. This work gives us a contrasted picture of today's perceptions of risks. (author)

Plasma cathepsin S and cystatin C levels and risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm: a randomized population-based study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bing-Jie Lv

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Human abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA lesions contain high levels of cathepsin S (CatS, but are deficient in its inhibitor, cystatin C. Whether plasma CatS and cystatin C levels are also altered in AAA patients remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: Plasma samples were collected from 476 male AAA patients and 200 age-matched male controls to determine CatS and cystatin C levels by ELISA. Student's t test demonstrated higher plasma levels of total, active, and pro-CatS in AAA patients than in controls (P<0.001. ROC curve analysis confirmed higher plasma total, active, and pro-CatS levels in AAA patients than in controls (P<0.001. Logistic regression suggested that plasma total (odds ratio [OR] = 1.332, active (OR = 1.21, and pro-CatS (OR = 1.25 levels were independent AAA risk factors that associated positively with AAA (P<0.001. Plasma cystatin C levels associated significantly, but negatively, with AAA (OR = 0.356, P<0.001. Univariate correlation demonstrated that plasma total and active CatS levels correlated positively with body-mass index, diastolic blood pressure, and aortic diameter, but negatively with the lowest ankle-brachial index (ABI. Plasma cystatin C levels also correlated negatively with the lowest ABI. Multivariate linear regression showed that plasma total, active, and pro-CatS levels correlated positively with aortic diameter and negatively with the lowest ABI, whereas plasma cystatin C levels correlated negatively with aortic diameter and the lowest ABI, after adjusting for common AAA risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Correlation of plasma CatS and cystatin C with aortic diameter and the lowest ABI suggest these serological parameters as biomarkers for human peripheral arterial diseases and AAA.

Enhancing the effectiveness of IST through risk-based techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Floyd, S.D.

1996-12-01

Current IST requirements were developed mainly through deterministic-based methods. While this approach has resulted in an adequate level of safety and reliability for pumps and valves, insights from probabilistic safety assessments suggest a better safety focus can be achieved at lower costs. That is, some high safety impact pumps and valves are currently not tested under the IST program and should be added, while low safety impact valves could be tested at significantly greater intervals than allowed by the current IST program. The nuclear utility industry, through the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), has developed a draft guideline for applying risk-based techniques to focus testing on those pumps and valves with a high safety impact while reducing test frequencies on low safety impact pumps and valves. The guideline is being validated through an industry pilot application program that is being reviewed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NEI and the ASME maintain a dialogue on the two groups` activities related to risk-based IST. The presenter will provide an overview of the NEI guideline, discuss the methodological approach for applying risk-based technology to IST and provide the status of the industry pilot plant effort.

Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

Science.gov (United States)

Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

2012-05-01

A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

Hyperuricemia Is a Risk Factor for the Onset of Impaired Fasting Glucose in Men with a High Plasma Glucose Level: A Community-Based Study

Science.gov (United States)

Miyake, Teruki; Kumagi, Teru; Furukawa, Shinya; Hirooka, Masashi; Kawasaki, Keitarou; Koizumi, Mitsuhito; Todo, Yasuhiko; Yamamoto, Shin; Abe, Masanori; Kitai, Kohichiro; Matsuura, Bunzo; Hiasa, Yoichi

2014-01-01

Background It is not clear whether elevated uric acid is a risk factor for the onset of impaired fasting glucose after stratifying by baseline fasting plasma glucose levels. We conducted a community-based retrospective longitudinal cohort study to clarify the relationship between uric acid levels and the onset of impaired fasting glucose, according to baseline fasting plasma glucose levels. Methods We enrolled 6,403 persons (3,194 men and 3,209 women), each of whom was 18–80 years old and had >2 annual check-ups during 2003–2010. After excluding persons who had fasting plasma glucose levels ≥6.11 mM and/or were currently taking anti-diabetic agents, the remaining 5,924 subjects were classified into quartiles according to baseline fasting plasma glucose levels. The onset of impaired fasting glucose was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥6.11 mM during the observation period. Results In the quartile groups, 0.9%, 2.1%, 3.4%, and 20.2% of the men developed impaired fasting glucose, respectively, and 0.1%, 0.3%, 0.5%, and 5.6% of the women developed impaired fasting glucose, respectively (P trend fasting glucose in men with highest-quartile fasting plasma glucose levels (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.003; 95% confidence interval, 1.0001–1.005, P = 0.041). Conclusions Among men with high fasting plasma glucose, hyperuricemia may be independently associated with an elevated risk of developing impaired fasting glucose. PMID:25237894

Level, causes, and risk factors of stillbirth: a population-based case control study from Chandigarh, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Newtonraj, Ariarathinam; Kaur, Manmeet; Gupta, Madhu; Kumar, Rajesh

2017-11-13

Globally, India ranks first in the absolute number of stillbirths. Hence, the level, causes, and risk factors of stillbirths were estimated to facilitate designing of prevention strategy. Capture and recapture method was used to identify 301 stillbirths from 1st July 2013 to 31st August 2014 in Chandigarh Union Territory of India. Verbal autopsies (n = 181) were done at household level to identify causes of stillbirths. Risk factors were determined using case-control approach. Women who had a stillbirth in the past 3 months were enrolled as cases (n = 181) and those who had live-birth in same neighbourhood were included as controls (n = 181). Statistical differences in the distribution of characteristics of cases and controls were tested by t test and chi square test respectively for quantitative and categorical variables. In logistic regression models adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for various risk factors. Stillbirth rate was estimated to be 16/1000 birth. Antepartum causes were more common (68%) than intrapartum causes (32%). Among maternal conditions, hypertension (18.2%) and chorio-amnionitis (13.8%), and among foetal conditions, growth restriction (19.9%) and congenital anomalies (18.8%) were the leading causes. In about half of the stillbirths foetal (48%) and maternal (44.7%) causes were unidentifiable. Risk factors of stillbirths were: higher maternal age (aOR 1.1, 95%CI 1.0-1.2), vaginal delivery (aOR 8.1, 95%CI 2.6-26), induced labour (aOR 2.6, 95%CI 1.5-4.5), green or light brown liquor (aOR 2.0, 95%CI 1.1-3.8), preterm delivery (aOR 6.4, 95%CI 3.7-11) and smaller household size (aOR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3). Stillbirth rate was high in Chandigarh Union Territory of India. Major causes and risk factors amenable to interventions were infections, hypertension, congenital malformations, foetal growth restriction, pre-maturity and household size. Therefore, better maternity ante-natal and intra-natal care is

Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

Use of results of microbiological analyses for risk-based control of Listeria monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs.

Science.gov (United States)

Aarnisalo, Kaarina; Vihavainen, Elina; Rantala, Leila; Maijala, Riitta; Suihko, Maija-Liisa; Hielm, Sebastian; Tuominen, Pirkko; Ranta, Jukka; Raaska, Laura

2008-02-10

Microbial risk assessment provides a means of estimating consumer risks associated with food products. The methods can also be applied at the plant level. In this study results of microbiological analyses were used to develop a robust single plant level risk assessment. Furthermore, the prevalence and numbers of Listeria monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs in Finland were estimated. These estimates were based on information on the prevalence, numbers and genotypes of L. monocytogenes in 186 marinated broiler legs from 41 retail stores. The products were from three main Finnish producers, which produce 90% of all marinated broiler legs sold in Finland. The prevalence and numbers of L. monocytogenes were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation using WinBUGS, but the model is applicable to any software featuring standard probability distributions. The estimated mean annual number of L. monocytogenes-positive broiler legs sold in Finland was 7.2x10(6) with a 95% credible interval (CI) 6.7x10(6)-7.7x10(6). That would be 34%+/-1% of the marinated broiler legs sold in Finland. The mean number of L. monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs estimated at the sell-by-date was 2 CFU/g, with a 95% CI of 0-14 CFU/g. Producer-specific L. monocytogenes strains were recovered from the products throughout the year, which emphasizes the importance of characterizing the isolates and identifying strains that may cause problems as part of risk assessment studies. As the levels of L. monocytogenes were low, the risk of acquiring listeriosis from these products proved to be insignificant. Consequently there was no need for a thorough national level risk assessment. However, an approach using worst-case and average point estimates was applied to produce an example of single producer level risk assessment based on limited data. This assessment also indicated that the risk from these products was low. The risk-based approach presented in this work can provide estimation of public health risk

Conceptual Framework for Trait-Based Ecological Risk Assessment for Wildlife Populations Exposed to Pesticides

Science.gov (United States)

Between screening level risk assessments and complex ecological models, a need exists for practical identification of risk based on general information about species, chemicals, and exposure scenarios. Several studies have identified demographic, biological, and toxicological fa...

RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2002-01-01

Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

The pros and cons of ecological risk assessment based on data from different levels of biological organization

Science.gov (United States)

Rohr, Jason R.; Salice, Christopher J.; Nisbet, Roger M.

2016-01-01

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is the process used to evaluate the safety of manufactured chemicals to the environment. Here we review the pros and cons of ERA across levels of biological organization, including suborganismal (e.g. biomarkers), individual, population, community, ecosystem, and landscapes levels. Our review revealed that level of biological organization is often related negatively with ease at assessing cause-effect relationships, ease of high-throughput screening of large numbers of chemicals (it is especially easier for suborganismal endpoints), and uncertainty of the ERA because low levels of biological organization tend to have a large distance between their measurement (what is quantified) and assessment endpoints (what is to be protected). In contrast, level of biological organization is often related positively with sensitivity to important negative and positive feedbacks and context dependencies within biological systems, and ease at capturing recovery from adverse contaminant effects. Some endpoints did not show obvious trends across levels of biological organization, such as the use of vertebrate animals in chemical testing and ease at screening large numbers of species, and other factors lacked sufficient data across levels of biological organization, such as repeatability, variability, cost per study, and cost per species of effects assessment, the latter of which might be a more defensible way to compare costs of ERAs than cost per study. To compensate for weaknesses of ERA at any particular level of biological organization, we also review mathematical modeling approaches commonly used to extrapolate effects across levels of organization. Finally, we provide recommendations for next generation ERA, submitting that if there is an ideal level of biological organization to conduct ERA, it will only emerge if ERA is approached simultaneously from the bottom of biological organization up as well as from the top down, all while employing

The pros and cons of ecological risk assessment based on data from different levels of biological organization.

Science.gov (United States)

Rohr, Jason R; Salice, Christopher J; Nisbet, Roger M

2016-10-01

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is the process used to evaluate the safety of manufactured chemicals to the environment. Here we review the pros and cons of ERA across levels of biological organization, including suborganismal (e.g., biomarkers), individual, population, community, ecosystem and landscapes levels. Our review revealed that level of biological organization is often related negatively with ease at assessing cause-effect relationships, ease of high-throughput screening of large numbers of chemicals (it is especially easier for suborganismal endpoints), and uncertainty of the ERA because low levels of biological organization tend to have a large distance between their measurement (what is quantified) and assessment endpoints (what is to be protected). In contrast, level of biological organization is often related positively with sensitivity to important negative and positive feedbacks and context dependencies within biological systems, and ease at capturing recovery from adverse contaminant effects. Some endpoints did not show obvious trends across levels of biological organization, such as the use of vertebrate animals in chemical testing and ease at screening large numbers of species, and other factors lacked sufficient data across levels of biological organization, such as repeatability, variability, cost per study and cost per species of effects assessment, the latter of which might be a more defensible way to compare costs of ERAs than cost per study. To compensate for weaknesses of ERA at any particular level of biological organization, we also review mathematical modeling approaches commonly used to extrapolate effects across levels of organization. Finally, we provide recommendations for next generation ERA, submitting that if there is an ideal level of biological organization to conduct ERA, it will only emerge if ERA is approached simultaneously from the bottom of biological organization up as well as from the top down, all while employing

Proposal for the improvement of IRD safety culture based on risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aguiar, L.A.; Ferreira, P.R.R.; Silveira, C.S.

2017-01-01

The Safety Culture (SC) is a concept about the relationship of individuals and organizations towards the safety in a specific activity. Any organization that carries out activities with risks has a SC, even at minimum levels. People perceive different types of radiation risks in very different ways, therefore, to identify and to analysis of the possible radiation risks resulting from normal operation or accident conditions is an important issue in order to improve the SC in organization. The main is to present guidelines for the improvement of the safety culture in the Institute of Radiation Protection and Dosimetry - IRD through on risk-based approach. The methodology proposed here is: A) select a division of the IRD for case study; B) assess the level of the 10 culture safety basic elements of the IRD division selected; C) conduct a survey of the hazards and risks associated with the various activities developed by the division; D) reassess the level of the 10 basic elements of CS; And E) analyze the results and correlate the impact of risk knowledge on safety culture improvement. The expected result is improvement the safety and of safety culture by understanding of radiation risks and hazards relating to work and to the working environment; and thus enforce a collective commitment to safety by teams and individuals and raise the safety culture to higher levels. (author)

Proposal for the improvement of IRD safety culture based on risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aguiar, L.A.; Ferreira, P.R.R. [Instituto de Radioproteção e Dosimetria (DIRAD/IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Silveira, C.S., E-mail: laguiar@ird.gov.br [Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear (DRS/CGMI/CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2017-07-01

The Safety Culture (SC) is a concept about the relationship of individuals and organizations towards the safety in a specific activity. Any organization that carries out activities with risks has a SC, even at minimum levels. People perceive different types of radiation risks in very different ways, therefore, to identify and to analysis of the possible radiation risks resulting from normal operation or accident conditions is an important issue in order to improve the SC in organization. The main is to present guidelines for the improvement of the safety culture in the Institute of Radiation Protection and Dosimetry - IRD through on risk-based approach. The methodology proposed here is: A) select a division of the IRD for case study; B) assess the level of the 10 culture safety basic elements of the IRD division selected; C) conduct a survey of the hazards and risks associated with the various activities developed by the division; D) reassess the level of the 10 basic elements of CS; And E) analyze the results and correlate the impact of risk knowledge on safety culture improvement. The expected result is improvement the safety and of safety culture by understanding of radiation risks and hazards relating to work and to the working environment; and thus enforce a collective commitment to safety by teams and individuals and raise the safety culture to higher levels. (author)

Multi-level Governance in Environmental Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petra Hiller

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The article examines regulatory strategies in the field of ecological disaster management with reference to the sociology of risk. The risk perspective draws attention to the fact that political strategies of regulation are to be understood as processes of risk transformation. The behavior of regulatory agencies is related to their perception of risks and opportunities. From this point of view, efforts in the field of disaster management appear as processes that turn perceived environmental threats into risks and opportunities for the agencies involved. The article shows the course of such a governance process which transforms environmental disasters into organizational risks and opportunities. This leads to the following research question: Which types of organizations favor strategies of risk avoidance and which organizations rather allow active pursuit of opportunities? The empirical part of this study is based on data obtained by field research in a multi-level negotiation system set up for managing hazardous wastes. Empirical findings support the assumption that organizational stability is a central condition for active pursuit of opportunities whereas organizational instability supports an orientation towards the avoidance of organizational risk. El artículo examina las estrategias reguladoras en el ámbito de la gestión de los desastres ecológicos, haciendo referencia a la sociología del riesgo. La perspectiva de riesgo pone su atención sobre el hecho de que las estrategias políticas de regulación se deben entender como procesos de transformación de riesgos. El comportamiento de las agencias reguladoras se relaciona con su percepción de los riesgos y oportunidades. Desde este punto de vista, los esfuerzos en el campo de la gestión de catástrofes se convierten en procesos que transforman las amenazas medioambientales (percibidas en riesgos y oportunidades para las agencias involucradas. El artículo muestra el desarrollo de este

An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

2017-11-17

Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Toward risk assessment 2.0: Safety supervisory control and model-based hazard monitoring for risk-informed safety interventions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Favarò, Francesca M.; Saleh, Joseph H.

2016-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a staple in the engineering risk community, and it has become to some extent synonymous with the entire quantitative risk assessment undertaking. Limitations of PRA continue to occupy researchers, and workarounds are often proposed. After a brief review of this literature, we propose to address some of PRA's limitations by developing a novel framework and analytical tools for model-based system safety, or safety supervisory control, to guide safety interventions and support a dynamic approach to risk assessment and accident prevention. Our work shifts the emphasis from the pervading probabilistic mindset in risk assessment toward the notions of danger indices and hazard temporal contingency. The framework and tools here developed are grounded in Control Theory and make use of the state-space formalism in modeling dynamical systems. We show that the use of state variables enables the definition of metrics for accident escalation, termed hazard levels or danger indices, which measure the “proximity” of the system state to adverse events, and we illustrate the development of such indices. Monitoring of the hazard levels provides diagnostic information to support both on-line and off-line safety interventions. For example, we show how the application of the proposed tools to a rejected takeoff scenario provides new insight to support pilots’ go/no-go decisions. Furthermore, we augment the traditional state-space equations with a hazard equation and use the latter to estimate the times at which critical thresholds for the hazard level are (b)reached. This estimation process provides important prognostic information and produces a proxy for a time-to-accident metric or advance notice for an impending adverse event. The ability to estimate these two hazard coordinates, danger index and time-to-accident, offers many possibilities for informing system control strategies and improving accident prevention and risk mitigation

Risk-based indicators of Canadians' exposures to environmental carcinogens.

Science.gov (United States)

Setton, Eleanor; Hystad, Perry; Poplawski, Karla; Cheasley, Roslyn; Cervantes-Larios, Alejandro; Keller, C Peter; Demers, Paul A

2013-02-12

Tools for estimating population exposures to environmental carcinogens are required to support evidence-based policies to reduce chronic exposures and associated cancers. Our objective was to develop indicators of population exposure to selected environmental carcinogens that can be easily updated over time, and allow comparisons and prioritization between different carcinogens and exposure pathways. We employed a risk assessment-based approach to produce screening-level estimates of lifetime excess cancer risk for selected substances listed as known carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Estimates of lifetime average daily intake were calculated using population characteristics combined with concentrations (circa 2006) in outdoor air, indoor air, dust, drinking water, and food and beverages from existing monitoring databases or comprehensive literature reviews. Intake estimates were then multiplied by cancer potency factors from Health Canada, the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment to estimate lifetime excess cancer risks associated with each substance and exposure pathway. Lifetime excess cancer risks in excess of 1 per million people are identified as potential priorities for further attention. Based on data representing average conditions circa 2006, a total of 18 carcinogen-exposure pathways had potential lifetime excess cancer risks greater than 1 per million, based on varying data quality. Carcinogens with moderate to high data quality and lifetime excess cancer risk greater than 1 per million included benzene, 1,3-butadiene and radon in outdoor air; benzene and radon in indoor air; and arsenic and hexavalent chromium in drinking water. Important data gaps were identified for asbestos, hexavalent chromium and diesel exhaust in outdoor and indoor air, while little data were available to assess risk for substances in dust, food and beverages. The ability to

Risk-based management system development for the Advanced Test Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, M.L.; Eide, S.A.

1990-01-01

A Risk-Based Management System (RBMS) is being developed to facilitate the use of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment to support ATR operation. Most ATR RBMS questions can best be answered using the System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA) developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. However, some applications may require employment of the other four codes used to develop and report the PRA. These four codes include the Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS), SETS, ETA-II, and the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). The ATR RBMS will evolve over three years, and will include the results of the Level 3 and external events analysis

Risk factors for unstable blood glucose level: integrative review of the risk factors related to the nursing diagnosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andressa Magalhães Teixeira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to identify evidence in the literature on the possible risk factors for the risk of unstable blood glucose diagnosis in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and to compare them with the risk factors described by NANDA International. Method: an integrative literature review guided by the question: what are the risk factors for unstable blood glucose level in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus? Primary studies were included whose outcomes were variations in glycemic levels, published in English, Portuguese or Spanish, in PubMed or CINAHL between 2010 and 2015. Results: altered levels of glycated hemoglobin, body mass index>31 kg/m2, previous history of hypoglycemia, cognitive deficit/dementia, autonomic cardiovascular neuropathy, comorbidities and weight loss corresponded to risk factors described in NANDA International. Other risk factors identified were: advanced age, black skin color, longer length of diabetes diagnosis, daytime sleepiness, macroalbuminuria, genetic polymorphisms, insulin therapy, use of oral antidiabetics, and use of metoclopramide, inadequate physical activity and low fasting glycemia. Conclusions: risk factors for the diagnosis, risk for unstable blood glucose level, for persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus were identified, and 42% of them corresponded to those of NANDA International. These findings may contribute to the practice of clinical nurses in preventing the deleterious effects of glycemic variation.

Assessing public flood risk perception for understanding the level of risk preparedness - Evidence from a community-based survey (the Bend Subcarpathians, Romania)

Science.gov (United States)

Balteanu, Dan; Micu, Dana; Dumitrascu, Monica; Chendes, Viorel; Dragota, Carmen; Kucsicsa, Gheorghita; Grigorescu, Ines; Persu, Mihaela; Costache, Andra

2016-04-01

Floods (slow-onset and rapid) are among the costliest hydro-meteorological hazards in Romania, with strong societal and economic impacts, especially in small rural settlements, with a limited adaptive capacity to their adverse effects induced by the regional socio-economic context (e.g. aging population, low economic power). The study-area is located in the Bend Subcarpathians (Romania), a region with high tectonic mobility (the Seismic Vrancea Region), active slope processes (e.g. shallow and deep-seated landslides, mud flow, gully erosion) and increasing frequency of flash floods associated to heavy rainfalls. The study was conducted in the framework of the project "Vulnerability of the environment and human settlements to floods in the context of Global Environmental Change - VULMIN" (PN-II-PT-PCCA-2011-3.1-1587), funded by the Ministry of National Education over the 2012-2016 period (http://www.igar-vulmin.ro). Prior research derived valuable insights into the local population vulnerability to extreme hydro-meteorological events, revealing an increased individual experience to past hydrological events, a high level of worry associated to flood recurrence, a low rate of the perceived trustworthiness in national institutions and authorities, as well as evident differences between the perception of community members and local authorities in terms of risk preparedness. In the present study, an attempt has been made for developing an advanced understanding of the current level of flood risk preparedness within some communities strongly affected by the floods of 1970-1975, 2005 and 2010. The recent events had a significant impact on local communities and infrastructure in terms of the financial losses, causing a visible stress and even psychological trauma on some residents of the most affected households. The selected communities are located in areas affected by recurrent hydro-meteorological hazards (floods and flash floods), with return periods below 10 years. A

From which level of competition in clubs are adolescents at greater risk of injury compared with outside-of-clubs athletes? A school-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Luiggi, Maxime; Rindler, Victoria; Griffet, Jean

2018-02-01

Sport practice is a key factor in a person's physical and mental health but, for adolescent athletes, some injuries lead to health problems in the long term. The literature provides multiple factors for understanding injury but does not give information about injury risk related to each level of play in a large sample of multisport athletes. This study investigates this relationship in 14- to 19-year-old adolescents. The survey on adolescents and health was conducted in classrooms of France, from February to March 2015. Only sports players were included in the analyses (n = 986). The levels of play were divided into five categories: outside of a club/no competition, club player/no competition, club player/local level, club player/state level and club player/national and higher level. A three-step binary logistic regression analysis with age, sex, type of sport, weekly hours of exposure, and level of play was used. During the past year, 48.1% of the adolescents were injured. Age and sex were not risk factors. The injury risk associated with the increases in level of play is higher than those related to the hours of exposure per week or the type of sport. In clubs, adolescents who do not compete or play at a local level showed no evidence of greater injury risk whereas state-level and national- and higher-level athletes were at greater risk than outside-of-club players (OR = 2.18, 95%CI = 1.13-3.94 and OR = 3.89, 95%CI = 2.07-7.31, respectively). Adolescents who play sports in clubs are clearly more exposed to injury than those who play outside of a club, mainly from state level. Age and sex are not related to injury. Future epidemiological studies should control adolescents' level of play. Special attention should be accorded to the injury risk of athletes playing at these levels of competition.

Risk-Based School Inspections: Impact of Targeted Inspection Approaches on Dutch Secondary Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Ehren, Melanie C.; Shackleton, Nichola

2016-01-01

In most countries, publicly funded schools are held accountable to one inspectorate and are judged against agreed national standards. Many inspectorates of education have recently moved towards more proportional risk-based inspection models, targeting high-risk schools for visits, while schools with satisfactory student attainment levels are…

Stochastic Model for Population Exposed to Low Level Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merkle, J.M.

1996-01-01

In this paper the stochastic model for population size, i.e. calculation of the number of deaths due to lethal stochastic health effects caused by the exposure to low level ionising radiation is presented. The model is defined for subpopulation with parameter (a, b) being fixed. Using the corresponding density function, it is possible to find all the quantities of interest by averaging over whole possible values for (a, l). All processes ar at first defined for one radionuclide, exposure pathway and the health effect under consideration. The results obtained in this paper are the basic quantities in the risk assessment, loss of life expectancy etc. The results presented in this paper are also applicable to the other sources of low level risk, not only the radiation risk

RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming-Chang LEE

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

Health and environmental risk-related impacts of actinide burning on high-level waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forsberg, C.W.

1992-05-01

The potential health and environmental risk-related impacts of actinide burning for high-level waste disposal were evaluated. Actinide burning, also called waste partitioning-transmutation, is an advanced method for radioactive waste management based on the idea of destroying the most toxic components in the waste. It consists of two steps: (1) selective removal of the most toxic radionuclides from high-level/spent fuel waste and (2) conversion of those radionuclides into less toxic radioactive materials and/or stable elements. Risk, as used in this report, is defined as the probability of a failure times its consequence. Actinide burning has two potential health and environmental impacts on waste management. Risks and the magnitude of high-consequence repository failure scenarios are decreased by inventory reduction of the long-term radioactivity in the repository. (What does not exist cannot create risk or uncertainty.) Risk may also be reduced by the changes in the waste characteristics, resulting from selection of waste forms after processing, that are superior to spent fuel and which lower the potential of transport of radionuclides from waste form to accessible environment. There are no negative health or environmental impacts to the repository from actinide burning; however, there may be such impacts elsewhere in the fuel cycle

Serum magnesium and the risk of prediabetes: a population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kieboom, Brenda C T; Ligthart, Symen; Dehghan, Abbas; Kurstjens, Steef; de Baaij, Jeroen H F; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Zietse, Robert; Stricker, Bruno H; Hoorn, Ewout J

2017-05-01

Previous studies have found an association between serum magnesium and incident diabetes; however, this association may be due to reverse causation, whereby diabetes may induce urinary magnesium loss. In contrast, in prediabetes (defined as impaired fasting glucose), serum glucose levels are below the threshold for urinary magnesium wasting and, hence, unlikely to influence serum magnesium levels. Thus, to study the directionality of the association between serum magnesium levels and diabetes, we investigated its association with prediabetes. We also investigated whether magnesium-regulating genes influence diabetes risk through serum magnesium levels. Additionally, we quantified the effect of insulin resistance in the association between serum magnesium levels and diabetes risk. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, we used Cox models, adjusted for age, sex, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, kidney function, serum levels of electrolytes and diuretic use, to study the association between serum magnesium and prediabetes/diabetes. In addition, we performed two mediation analyses: (1) to study if common genetic variation in eight magnesium-regulating genes influence diabetes risk through serum magnesium levels; and (2) to quantify the proportion of the effect of serum magnesium levels on diabetes that is mediated through insulin resistance (quantified by HOMA-IR). A total of 8555 participants (mean age, 64.7 years; median follow-up, 5.7 years) with normal glucose levels (mean ± SD: 5.46 ± 0.58 mmol/l) at baseline were included. A 0.1 mmol/l decrease in serum magnesium level was associated with an increase in diabetes risk (HR 1.18 [95% CI 1.04, 1.33]), confirming findings from previous studies. Of interest, a similar association was found between serum magnesium levels and prediabetes risk (HR 1.12 [95% CI 1.01, 1.25]). Genetic variation in CLDN19, CNNM2, FXYD2, SLC41A2, and TRPM6 significantly influenced diabetes risk (p prediabetes 13.4% was

Nitrate in drinking water and colorectal cancer risk: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Schullehner, Jörg; Hansen, Birgitte; Thygesen, Malene; Pedersen, Carsten B; Sigsgaard, Torben

2018-07-01

Nitrate in drinking water may increase risk of colorectal cancer due to endogenous transformation into carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds. Epidemiological studies are few and often challenged by their limited ability of estimating long-term exposure on a detailed individual level. We exploited population-based health register data, linked in time and space with longitudinal drinking water quality data, on an individual level to study the association between long-term drinking water nitrate exposure and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Individual nitrate exposure was calculated for 2.7 million adults based on drinking water quality analyses at public waterworks and private wells between 1978 and 2011. For the main analyses, 1.7 million individuals with highest exposure assessment quality were included. Follow-up started at age 35. We identified 5,944 incident CRC cases during 23 million person-years at risk. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of nitrate exposure on the risk of CRC, colon and rectal cancer. Persons exposed to the highest level of drinking water nitrate had an HR of 1.16 (95% CI: 1.08-1.25) for CRC compared with persons exposed to the lowest level. We found statistically significant increased risks at drinking water levels above 3.87 mg/L, well below the current drinking water standard of 50 mg/L. Our results add to the existing evidence suggesting increased CRC risk at drinking water nitrate concentrations below the current drinking water standard. A discussion on the adequacy of the drinking water standard in regards to chronic effects is warranted. © 2018 UICC.

Methodological Bases for Describing Risks of the Enterprise Business Model in Integrated Reporting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nesterenko Oksana O.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to substantiate the methodological bases for describing the business and accounting risks of an enterprise business model in integrated reporting for their timely detection and assessment, and develop methods for their leveling or minimizing and possible prevention. It is proposed to consider risks in the process of forming integrated reporting from two sides: first, risks that arise in the business model of an organization and should be disclosed in its integrated report; second, accounting risks of integrated reporting, which should be taken into account by members of the cross-sectoral working group and management personnel in the process of forming and promulgating integrated reporting. To develop an adequate accounting and analytical tool for disclosure of information about the risks of the business model and integrated reporting, their leveling or minimization, in the article a terminological analysis of the essence of entrepreneurial and accounting risks is carried out. The entrepreneurial risk is defined as an objective-subjective economic category that characterizes the probability of negative or positive consequences of economic-social-ecological activity within the framework of the business model of an enterprise under uncertainty. The accounting risk is suggested to be understood as the probability of unfavorable consequences as a result of organizational, methodological errors in the integrated accounting system, which present threat to the quality, accuracy and reliability of the reporting information on economic, social and environmental activities in integrated reporting as well as threat of inappropriate decision-making by stakeholders based on the integrated report. For the timely identification of business risks and maximum leveling of the influence of accounting risks on the process of formation and publication of integrated reporting, in the study the place of entrepreneurial and accounting risks in

Planning of operation & maintenance using risk and reliability based methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2015-01-01

Operation and maintenance (OM) of offshore wind turbines contributes with a substantial part of the total levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The objective of this paper is to present an application of risk- and reliability-based methods for planning of OM. The theoretical basis is presented...

[Design and Application of High-risk Pregnancy Monitoring & Warning Internet Platform Based on Internet of Things].

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Heqing; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Li, Bin

2017-09-30

Through illustrating the designing of high-risk pregnancy maternal-fetal monitoring system based on the internet of things, this paper introduced the specific application of using wearable medical devices to provide maternal-fetal mobile medical services. With the help of big data and cloud obstetrics platform, the monitoring and warning network was further improved, the level-to-level administration of high-risk pregnancy was realized, the level of perinatal health care was enhanced and the risk of critical emergency of pregnancy decreased.

A simple data base for identification of risk profiles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Munganahalli, D.

1996-12-31

Sedco Forex is a drilling contractor that operates approximately 80 rigs on land and offshore worldwide. The HSE management system developed by Sedco Forex is an effort to prevent accidents and minimize losses. An integral part of the HSE management system is establishing risk profiles and thereby minimizing risk and reducing loss exposures. Risk profiles are established based on accident reports, potential accident reports and other risk identification reports (RIR) like the Du Pont STOP system. A rig could fill in as many as 30 accident reports, 30 potential accident reports and 500 STOP cards each year. Statistics are important for an HSE management system, since they are indicators of success or failure of HSE systems. It is however difficult to establish risk profiles based on statistical information, unless tools are available at the rig site to aid with the analysis. Risk profiles are then used to identify important areas in the operation that may require specific attention to minimize the loss exposure. Programs to address the loss exposure can then be identified and implemented with either a local or corporate approach. In January 1995, Sedco Forex implemented a uniform HSE Database on all the rigs worldwide. In one year companywide, the HSE database would contain information on approximately 500 accident and potential accident reports, and 10,000 STOP cards. This paper demonstrates the salient features of the database and describes how it has helped in establishing key risk profiles. It also shows a recent example of how risk profiles have been established at the corporate level and used to identify the key contributing factors to hands and finger injuries. Based on this information, a campaign was launched to minimize the frequency of occurrence and associated loss attributed to hands and fingers accidents.

Risk assessments for the disposal of high level radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, C.F.

1975-01-01

The risks associated with the disposal of high level wastes derive from the potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. The assessment of these risks requires a methodology for risk analysis, an identification of the radioactive sources, and a method by which to express the relative hazard of the various radionuclides that comprise the high level waste. The development of a methodology for risk analysis is carried out after a review of previous work in the area of probabilistic risk assessment. The methodology suggested involves the probabilistic analysis of a general accident consequence distribution. In this analysis, the frequency aspect of the distribution is treated separately from the normalized probability function. At the final stage of the analysis, the frequency and probability characteristics of the distribution are recombined to provide an estimate of the risk. The characterization of the radioactive source term is accomplished using the ORIGEN computer code. Calculations are carried out for various reactor types and fuel cycles, and the overall waste hazard for a projected thirty-five year nuclear power program is determined

Pilot task-based assessment of noise levels among firefighters.

Science.gov (United States)

Neitzel, Rl; Hong, O; Quinlan, P; Hulea, R

2013-11-01

Over one million American firefighters are routinely exposed to various occupational hazards agents. While efforts have been made to identify and reduce some causes of injuries and illnesses among firefighters, relatively little has been done to evaluate and understand occupational noise exposures in this group. The purpose of this pilot study was to apply a task-based noise exposure assessment methodology to firefighting operations to evaluate potential noise exposure sources, and to use collected task-based noise levels to create noise exposure estimates for evaluation of risk of noise-induced hearing loss by comparison to the 8-hr and 24-hr recommended exposure limits (RELs) for noise of 85 and 80.3 dBA, respectively. Task-based noise exposures (n=100 measurements) were measured in three different fire departments (a rural department in Southeast Michigan and suburban and urban departments in Northern California). These levels were then combined with time-at-task information collected from firefighters to estimate 8-hr noise exposures for the rural and suburban fire departments (n=6 estimates for each department). Data from 24-hr dosimetry measurements and crude self-reported activity categories from the urban fire department (n=4 measurements) were used to create 24-hr exposure estimates to evaluate the bias associated with the task-based estimates. Task-based noise levels were found to range from 82-109 dBA, with the highest levels resulting from use of saws and pneumatic chisels. Some short (e.g., 30 min) sequences of common tasks were found to result in nearly an entire allowable daily exposure. The majority of estimated 8-hr and 24-hr exposures exceeded the relevant recommended exposure limit. Predicted 24-hr exposures showed substantial imprecision in some cases, suggesting the need for increased task specificity. The results indicate potential for overexposure to noise from a variety of firefighting tasks and equipment, and suggest a need for further

Perspectives of decision-making and estimation of risk in populations exposed to low levels of ionizing radiations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1979-01-01

The setting of any permissible radiation level or guide remains essentially an arbitrary procedure. Based on the radiation risk estimates derived, any lack of precision does not minimize either the need for setting public health policies nor the conclusion that such risks are extremely small when compared with those avialable of alternative options, and those normally accepted by society as the hazards of everyday life. When compared with the benefits that society has established as goals derived from the necessary activities of medical care and energy production, it is apparent that society must establish appropriate standards and seek appropriate controlling procedures which continue to assure that its needs are being met with the lowest possible risks. This implies continuing decision-making processes in which risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness assessments must be taken into account. Much of the practical information necessary for determination of radiation protection standards for public health policy is still lacking. It is now assumed that any exposure to radiaion at low levels of dose carries some risk of deleterious effects. However, how low this level may be, or the probability, or magnitude of the risk, still are not known. Radiation and the public health becomes a societal and political problem and not solely a scientific one. Our best scientific knowledge and our best scientific advice are essential for the protection of the public health, for the effective application of new technologies in medicine, and for guidance in the production of energy in industry. Unless man wishes to dispense with those activities which inevitably involve exposure to low levels of ionizing radiations, he must recognize that some degree of risk, however small, exists. In the evaluation of such risks from radiation, it is necessary to limit the radiation exposure to a level at which the risk is acceptable both to the individual and to society.

Perspectives of decision-making and estimation of risk in populations exposed to low levels of ionizing radiations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1979-01-01

The setting of any permissible radiation level or guide remains essentially an arbitrary procedure. Based on the radiation risk estimates derived, any lack of precision does not minimize either the need for setting public health policies nor the conclusion that such risks are extremely small when compared with those avialable of alternative options, and those normally accepted by society as the hazards of everyday life. When compared with the benefits that society has established as goals derived from the necessary activities of medical care and energy production, it is apparent that society must establish appropriate standards and seek appropriate controlling procedures which continue to assure that its needs are being met with the lowest possible risks. This implies continuing decision-making processes in which risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness assessments must be taken into account. Much of the practical information necessary for determination of radiation protection standards for public health policy is still lacking. It is now assumed that any exposure to radiaion at low levels of dose carries some risk of deleterious effects. However, how low this level may be, or the probability, or magnitude of the risk, still are not known. Radiation and the public health becomes a societal and political problem and not solely a scientific one. Our best scientific knowledge and our best scientific advice are essential for the protection of the public health, for the effective application of new technologies in medicine, and for guidance in the production of energy in industry. Unless man wishes to dispense with those activities which inevitably involve exposure to low levels of ionizing radiations, he must recognize that some degree of risk, however small, exists. In the evaluation of such risks from radiation, it is necessary to limit the radiation exposure to a level at which the risk is acceptable both to the individual and to society

Risk-based inspection of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masopust, R.

1995-01-01

A multidiscipline research programme was developed in the USA to establish risk-based inspections for NPP structures and equipment components. Based on this US research effort, the risk-based procedure for developing inspection guidelines for NPPs is described. The procedure includes the definition of systems, qualitative risk assessment, qualitative risk analysis and development of the inspection programme. The method, when adopted and modified, is recommended also for risk-based inspections of structures and equipment of WWER-type NPPs. A pilot application of the method to unit 1 of the Surry NPP is summarized. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig., 5 refs

A performance-oriented and risk-based regulation for containment testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dey, M.

1994-01-01

In August 1992, the NRC initiated a major initiative to develop requirements for containment testing that are less prescriptive, and more performance-oriented and risk-based. This action was a result of public comments and several studies that concluded that the economic burden of certain, present containment testing requirements are not commensurate with their safety benefits. The rulemaking will include consideration of relaxing the allowable containment leakage rate, increasing the interval for the integrated containment test, and establishing intervals for the local containment leak rate tests based on their performance. A study has been conducted to provide technical information for establishing the performance criteria for containment tests, the allowable leakage rate, commensurate with its significance to total public risk. The study used results of a recent comprehensive study conducted by the NRC, NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants,' to examine the sensitivity of containment leakage to public risk. Risk was found to be insensitive to containment leakage rate up to levels of about 100 percent-volume per day for certain types of containments. PRA methods have also been developed to establish risk-based intervals for containment tests based on their past experience. Preliminary evaluations show that increasing the interval for the integrated containment leakage test from three times to once every ten years would have an insignificant impact on public risk. Preliminary analyses of operational experience data for local leak rate tests show that performance-based testing, valves and penetrations that perform well are tested less frequently, is feasible with marginal impact on safety. The above technical studies are being used to develop efficient (cost-effective) requirements for containment tests. (author). 4 refs., 2 figs

Managing long-term polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contaminated soils: a risk-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Luchun; Naidu, Ravi; Thavamani, Palanisami; Meaklim, Jean; Megharaj, Mallavarapu

2015-06-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a family of contaminants that consist of two or more aromatic rings fused together. Soils contaminated with PAHs pose significant risk to human and ecological health. Over the last 50 years, significant research has been directed towards the cleanup of PAH-contaminated soils to background level. However, this achieved only limited success especially with high molecular weight compounds. Notably, during the last 5-10 years, the approach to remediate PAH-contaminated soils has changed considerably. A risk-based prioritization of remediation interventions has become a valuable step in the management of contaminated sites. The hydrophobicity of PAHs underlines that their phase distribution in soil is strongly influenced by factors such as soil properties and ageing of PAHs within the soil. A risk-based approach recognizes that exposure and environmental effects of PAHs are not directly related to the commonly measured total chemical concentration. Thus, a bioavailability-based assessment using a combination of chemical analysis with toxicological assays and nonexhaustive extraction technique would serve as a valuable tool in risk-based approach for remediation of PAH-contaminated soils. In this paper, the fate and availability of PAHs in contaminated soils and their relevance to risk-based management of long-term contaminated soils are reviewed. This review may serve as guidance for the use of site-specific risk-based management methods.

Risk-based remediation: Approach and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frishmuth, R.A.; Benson, L.A.

1995-01-01

The principle objective of remedial actions is to protect human health and the environment. Risk assessments are the only defensible tools available to demonstrate to the regulatory community and public that this objective can be achieved. Understanding the actual risks posed by site-related contamination is crucial to designing cost-effective remedial strategies. All to often remedial actions are overdesigned, resulting in little to no increase in risk reduction while increasing project cost. Risk-based remedial actions have recently been embraced by federal and state regulators, industry, government, the scientific community, and the public as a mechanism to implement rapid and cost-effective remedial actions. Emphasizing risk reduction, rather than adherence to ambiguous and generic standards, ensures that only remedial actions required to protect human health and the environment at a particular site are implemented. Two sites are presented as case studies on how risk-based approaches are being used to remediate two petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. The sites are located at two US Air Force Bases, Wurtsmith Air Force Base (AFB) in Oscoda, Michigan and Malmstrom AFB in Great Falls, Montana

A Semi Risk-Based Approach for Managing Urban Drainage Systems under Extreme Rainfall

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Salinas-Rodriguez

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Conventional design standards for urban drainage systems are not set to deal with extreme rainfall events. As these events are becoming more frequent, there is room for proposing new planning approaches and standards that are flexible enough to cope with a wide range of rainfall events. In this paper, a semi risk-based approach is presented as a simple and practical way for the analysis and management of rainfall flooding at the precinct scale. This approach uses various rainfall events as input parameters for the analysis of the flood hazard and impacts, and categorises the flood risk in different levels, ranging from very low to very high risk. When visualised on a map, the insight into the risk levels across the precinct will enable engineers and spatial planners to identify and prioritise interventions to manage the flood risk. The approach is demonstrated for a sewer district in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, using a one-dimensional (1D/two-dimensional (2D flood model. The risk level of this area is classified as being predominantly very low or low, with a couple of locations with high and very high risk. For these locations interventions, such as disconnection and lowering street profiles, have been proposed and analysed with the 1D/2D flood model. The interventions were shown to be effective in reducing the risk levels from very high/high risk to medium/low risk.

Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

2016-09-30

Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L.

1996-09-01

This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various open-quotes constraint levelsclose quotes have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the open-quotes costs close-quote of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria

Risk-Sensitive Multiagent Decision-Theoretic Planning Based on MDP and One-Switch Utility Functions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Zeng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In high stakes situations decision-makers are often risk-averse and decision-making processes often take place in group settings. This paper studies multiagent decision-theoretic planning under Markov decision processes (MDPs framework with considering the change of agent’s risk attitude as his wealth level varies. Based on one-switch utility function that describes agent’s risk attitude change with his wealth level, we give the additive and multiplicative aggregation models of group utility and adopt maximizing expected group utility as planning objective. When the wealth level approaches infinity, the characteristics of optimal policy are analyzed for the additive and multiplicative aggregation model, respectively. Then a backward-induction method is proposed to divide the wealth level interval from negative infinity to initial wealth level into subintervals and determine the optimal policy in states and subintervals. The proposed method is illustrated by numerical examples and the influences of agent’s risk aversion parameters and weights on group decision-making are also analyzed.

Level of Alkenylbenzenes in Parsley and Dill Based Teas and Associated Risk Assessment Using the Margin of Exposure Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alajlouni, Abdul; Al-Malahmeh, Amer J.; Isnaeni, Farida Nur; Wesseling, Sebas; Vervoort, Jacques; Rietjens, Ivonne M.C.M.

2016-01-01

Risk assessment of parsley and dill based teas that contain alkenylbenzenes was performed. To this end the estimated daily intake (EDI) of alkenylbenzenes resulting from use of the teas was quantified. Since most teas appeared to contain more than one alkenylbenzene, a combined risk assessment

Comprehensive risk assessment method of catastrophic accident based on complex network properties

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Zhen; Pang, Jun; Shen, Xiaohong

2017-09-01

On the macro level, the structural properties of the network and the electrical characteristics of the micro components determine the risk of cascading failures. And the cascading failures, as a process with dynamic development, not only the direct risk but also potential risk should be considered. In this paper, comprehensively considered the direct risk and potential risk of failures based on uncertain risk analysis theory and connection number theory, quantified uncertain correlation by the node degree and node clustering coefficient, then established a comprehensive risk indicator of failure. The proposed method has been proved by simulation on the actual power grid. Modeling a network according to the actual power grid, and verified the rationality of the proposed method.

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

A risk based model supporting long term maintenance and reinvestment strategy decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sand, Kjell; Montard, Julien; Tremoen, Tord H.

2010-02-15

This Technical Report is a product from the project Risk-Based Distribution System Asset Management (short: RISK DSAM) - Work Package 3 Risk exposure on company/strategic level. In the report a concept for portfolio distribution system asset management is presented. The approach comprises four main steps: 1. Decide the asset base. 2. Divide the asset base into relevant archetypes. 3. Develop or select relevant maintenance and reinvestment strategies for the different archetypes. 4. Estimate risks and costs for each archetype for the relevant strategies. For the different steps guidelines are given and a proposal for implementation of the concept is given in terms of a proposed IT system architecture.To evaluate the feasibility of such a concept, a prototype was developed in by using Visual Basic macros in Excel using real technical data from a small DSO. The experience from using the prototype shows that the concept is realistic. All assets are included and depending of the ambition of the risk analysis both simple simulation models and more advanced might be embedded. Presentations of the concept for a utility engineers have receive positive feedback indicating that the concept is regarded as a practical way to develop risk based asset management strategies for the asset fleet. It should be noted that the concept should be applied on a company strategic level and is thus not designed to be applied for a specific project or asset decisions. For this, more detailed models with area specific information, topology etc. are needed. (Author)

13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

Supplier Risk Assessment Based on Best-Worst Method and K-Means Clustering: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Merve Er Kara

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Supplier evaluation and selection is one of the most critical strategic decisions for developing a competitive and sustainable organization. Companies have to consider supplier related risks and threats in their purchasing decisions. In today’s competitive and risky business environment, it is very important to work with reliable suppliers. This study proposes a clustering based approach to group suppliers based on their risk profile. Suppliers of a company in the heavy-machinery sector are assessed based on 17 qualitative and quantitative risk types. The weights of the criteria are determined by using the Best-Worst method. Four factors are extracted by applying Factor Analysis to the supplier risk data. Then k-means clustering algorithm is applied to group core suppliers of the company based on the four risk factors. Three clusters are created with different risk exposure levels. The interpretation of the results provides insights for risk management actions and supplier development programs to mitigate supplier risk.

Adolescent obesity as a risk factor for high-level nicotine addiction in young women.

Science.gov (United States)

Hussaini, Aliya Esmail; Nicholson, Lisa Marie; Shera, David; Stettler, Nicolas; Kinsman, Sara

2011-11-01

Obesity and cigarette smoking are two of the most frequent and preventable causes of disease and death in the United States; both are often established during youth. We hypothesized that obese, adolescent girls would be at higher risk for nicotine addiction in young adulthood, and that particular individual and social factors would mediate this association. Students surveyed in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), a nationally representative school-based and in-home survey conducted in three waves, comprised the sample. More than 4,000 respondents were used for the multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses used to determine the association between obesity and level of nicotine addiction. Potential mediation effects of the association were also examined. Obesity doubled the risk of the highest level of nicotine addiction after controlling for demographic factors, parent and friend smoking, and baseline smoking (OR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.22-3.68). Family smoking was the strongest predictor of nicotine addiction (OR, 4.72; 95% CI, 2.89-7.72). Grade point average was a partial mediator of this relationship (OR, .48; 95% CI, .32-.74). Obese, adolescent females are at increased risk for high-level nicotine addiction in young adulthood as compared with their nonobese peers. Grade point average partially mediates the association, and may represent a confluence of factors including increased absenteeism, social marginalization, biases, and lack of confidence in academic ability. Obese, adolescent females may require targeted interventions to address their risk of subsequent high-level nicotine addiction, especially if risk factors such as parental smoking and poor school performance are present. Copyright © 2011 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Distribution and risk assessment of mercury species in soil of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Cheng; Chen, Hong; Wang, Ding-Yong; Sun, Rong-Guo; Zhang, Jin-Yang

2014-03-01

To investigate pollution level and ecological risk of mercury in soils of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, 192 surface soil samples from 14 counties (districts) in Chongqing were obtained. Concentrations of THg and Hg species, bioavailable Hg were analyzed and discussed. Geoaccumulation index (I(geo)) and Håkanson potential ecological risk index (E(r)) were applied to assess the pollution status and potential ecological risk of THg and Hg species, respectively. The results showed that significant differences in the concentration of THg were found in soils of water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir. The THg concentration ranged from 22.4 to 393.5 microg x kg(-1), with an average of (84.2 +/- 54.3) microg x kg(-1). 76.6% of the samples' THg content was higher than the soil background value in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. The percentage of five mercury species (water-soluble Hg, HCl-soluble Hg, KOH-soluble Hg, H2O2-soluble Hg, residue Hg) in soils were 4.1%, 15.5%, 18.3%, 10.9%, 51.3%, respectively. The average concentrations of bioavailable mercury varied between 19.7-36.6 microg x kg(-1), and the percentage of bioavailable Hg was 22.1%-51.6% of THg. According to the geoaccumulation index, the soils were lightly polluted by Hg. Håkanson single potential ecological risk index evaluation showed that Hg species had a low potential ecological risk, moreover, soils of water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir were at low ecological risk levels as evaluated by bioavailable Hg. While, the assessment results based on THg of soils was much higher than that based on the Hg species. Two methods of evaluation showed that the I(geo) and E(r) values calculated based on the Hg species better reflected the actual pollution levels of soils and its hazard to aquatic organisms.

Serum levels of nerve growth factor (NGF) in patients with major depression disorder and suicide risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiener, Carolina David; de Mello Ferreira, Sharon; Pedrotti Moreira, Fernanda; Bittencourt, Guilherme; de Oliveira, Jacqueline Flores; Lopez Molina, Mariane; Jansen, Karen; de Mattos Souza, Luciano Dias; Rizzato Lara, Diogo; Portela, Luiz Valmor; da Silva, Ricardo Azevedo; Oses, Jean Pierre

2015-09-15

Nerve growth factor (NGF) is an important member of the neurotrophins group and their involvement in the pathophysiology of major depression disorder (MDD) and suicide risk (SR) has been recently suggested. The aim of this study is to evaluate the changes in NGF serum levels in individuals with MDD and with or without risk of suicide, in subjects from a young population-based sample. This is a paired cross-sectional study nested in a population-based study. Individuals were rated for MDD and SR by a diagnostic interview--Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (M.I.N.I). The total population of the sample was comprised of 141 subjects distributed in three groups: 47 healthy controls, 47 subjects with current depressive episode without SR (MDD) and 47 subjects with current depressive episode and with SR (MDD + SR). NGF serum levels were significantly reduced in the MDD and MDD + SR groups when compared with controls (p ≤ 0.001). However, there were no differences in NGF levels between the MDD and MDD + SR groups (p = 1.000). These results suggest that reduced NGF serum levels can be a possible biomarker of MDD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabre J. Coleman

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

Respiratory cancer risks associated with low-level nickel exposure: an integrated assessment based on animal, epidemiological, and mechanistic data.

Science.gov (United States)

Seilkop, Steven K; Oller, Adriana R

2003-04-01

Increased lung and nasal cancer risks have been reported in several cohorts of nickel refinery workers, but in more than 90% of the nickel-exposed workers that have been studied there is little, if any evidence of excess risk. This investigation utilizes human exposure measurements, animal data from cancer bioassays of three nickel compounds, and a mechanistic theory of nickel carcinogenesis to reconcile the disparities in lung cancer risk among nickel-exposed workers. Animal data and mechanistic theory suggest that the apparent absence of risk in workers with low nickel exposures is due to threshold-like responses in lung tumor incidence (oxidic nickel), tumor promotion (soluble nickel), and genetic damage (sulfidic nickel). When animal-based lung cancer dose-response functions for these compounds are extrapolated to humans, taking into account interspecies differences in deposition and clearance, differences in particle size distributions, and human work activity patterns, the predicted risks at occupational exposures are remarkably similar to those observed in nickel-exposed workers. This provides support for using the animal-based dose-response functions to estimate occupational exposure limits, which are found to be comparable to those in current use.

Derivation of a No-Significant-Risk-Level (NSRL) for diethanolamine (DEA).

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bingxuan; Amacher, David E; Whittaker, Margaret H

2014-02-01

Diethanolamine (DEA) has been listed on the State of California's Proposition 65 List. This listing is based in part on tumors reported in a National Toxicology Program (NTP) 2-year dermal carcinogenicity study in mice which found clear evidence of carcinogenic activity in B6C3F₁ mice based on increased incidences of liver neoplasms in both sexes, and increased incidences of renal tubule neoplasms in males. Although considerable controversy exists on the relevance of the NTP study to humans, industries are obligated to comply with the Proposition 65 labeling requirement and drinking water discharge prohibition, unless they are able to demonstrate that DEA levels in their products are below a specific No Significant Risk Level (NSRL). The State of California has not published an NSRL for DEA. In this article, a NSRL of 5.6 μg/day and a life-stage-adjusted NSRL(adj) of 1.4 μg/day are derived from the NTP carcinogenicity study using a benchmark dose modeling method based on the incidence of hepatocellular carcinomas in female mice, in accordance with the guidelines of California EPA. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adversarial risk analysis with incomplete information: a level-k approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Rothschild, Casey; McLay, Laura; Guikema, Seth

2012-07-01

This article proposes, develops, and illustrates the application of level-k game theory to adversarial risk analysis. Level-k reasoning, which assumes that players play strategically but have bounded rationality, is useful for operationalizing a Bayesian approach to adversarial risk analysis. It can be applied in a broad class of settings, including settings with asynchronous play and partial but incomplete revelation of early moves. Its computational and elicitation requirements are modest. We illustrate the approach with an application to a simple defend-attack model in which the defender's countermeasures are revealed with a probability less than one to the attacker before he decides on how or whether to attack. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Sound Levels and Risk Perceptions of Music Students During Classes.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigues, Matilde A; Amorim, Marta; Silva, Manuela V; Neves, Paula; Sousa, Aida; Inácio, Octávio

2015-01-01

It is well recognized that professional musicians are at risk of hearing damage due to the exposure to high sound pressure levels during music playing. However, it is important to recognize that the musicians' exposure may start early in the course of their training as students in the classroom and at home. Studies regarding sound exposure of music students and their hearing disorders are scarce and do not take into account important influencing variables. Therefore, this study aimed to describe sound level exposures of music students at different music styles, classes, and according to the instrument played. Further, this investigation attempted to analyze the perceptions of students in relation to exposure to loud music and consequent health risks, as well as to characterize preventive behaviors. The results showed that music students are exposed to high sound levels in the course of their academic activity. This exposure is potentiated by practice outside the school and other external activities. Differences were found between music style, instruments, and classes. Tinnitus, hyperacusis, diplacusis, and sound distortion were reported by the students. However, students were not entirely aware of the health risks related to exposure to high sound pressure levels. These findings reflect the importance of starting intervention in relation to noise risk reduction at an early stage, when musicians are commencing their activity as students.

Generating tsunami risk knowledge at community level as a base for planning and implementation of risk reduction strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Wegscheider, Stephanie; Post, Joachim; Mück, Matthias; Zosseder, Kai; Muhari, Abdul; Anwar, Herryal Z.; Gebert, Niklas; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten

2010-05-01

More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunami-prone areas on the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Depending on the location of the tsunamigenic earthquake, in many cases the time to reach a tsunami-safe area is as short as 15 or 20 minutes. To increase the chances of a successful evacuation a comprehensive and thorough planning and preparation is necessary. For this purpose, detailed knowledge on potential hazard impact and safe areas, exposed elements such as people, critical facilities and lifelines, deficiencies in response capabilities and evacuation routes is crucial. The major aims of this paper are (i) to assess and quantify people's response capabilities and (ii) to identify high risk areas which have a high need of action to improve the response capabilities and thus to reduce the risk. The major factor influencing people's ability to evacuate successfully is the factor time. The estimated time of arrival of a tsunami at the coast which determines the overall available time for evacuation after triggering of a tsunami can be derived by analyzing modeled tsunami scenarios for a respective area. But in most cases, this available time frame is diminished by other time components including the time until natural or technical warning signs are received and the time until reaction follows a warning (understanding a warning and decision to take appropriate action). For the time to receive a warning we assume that the early warning centre is able to fulfil the Indonesian presidential decree to issue a warning within 5 minutes. Reaction time is difficult to quantify as here human intrinsic factors as educational level, believe, tsunami knowledge and experience play a role. Although we are aware of the great importance of this factor and the importance to minimize the reaction time, it is not considered in this paper. Quantifying the needed evacuation time is based on a GIS approach. This approach is relatively simple and enables local

Risk assessment of groundwater level variability using variable Kriging methods

Science.gov (United States)

Spanoudaki, Katerina; Kampanis, Nikolaos A.

2015-04-01

Assessment of the water table level spatial variability in aquifers provides useful information regarding optimal groundwater management. This information becomes more important in basins where the water table level has fallen significantly. The spatial variability of the water table level in this work is estimated based on hydraulic head measured during the wet period of the hydrological year 2007-2008, in a sparsely monitored basin in Crete, Greece, which is of high socioeconomic and agricultural interest. Three Kriging-based methodologies are elaborated in Matlab environment to estimate the spatial variability of the water table level in the basin. The first methodology is based on the Ordinary Kriging approach, the second involves auxiliary information from a Digital Elevation Model in terms of Residual Kriging and the third methodology calculates the probability of the groundwater level to fall below a predefined minimum value that could cause significant problems in groundwater resources availability, by means of Indicator Kriging. The Box-Cox methodology is applied to normalize both the data and the residuals for improved prediction results. In addition, various classical variogram models are applied to determine the spatial dependence of the measurements. The Matérn model proves to be the optimal, which in combination with Kriging methodologies provides the most accurate cross validation estimations. Groundwater level and probability maps are constructed to examine the spatial variability of the groundwater level in the basin and the associated risk that certain locations exhibit regarding a predefined minimum value that has been set for the sustainability of the basin's groundwater resources. Acknowledgement The work presented in this paper has been funded by the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (IKY), Fellowships of Excellence for Postdoctoral Studies (Siemens Program), 'A simulation-optimization model for assessing the best practices for the

Association of urinary metals levels with type 2 diabetes risk in coke oven workers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Bing; Feng, Wei; Wang, Jing; Li, Yaru; Han, Xu; Hu, Hua; Guo, Huan; Zhang, Xiaomin; He, Meian

2016-01-01

Background: Studies indicated that occupationally exposed to metals could result in oxidative damage and inflammation and increase cardiovascular diseases risk. However, epidemiological studies about the associations of metals exposure with diabetes risk among coke oven workers were limited. Objectives: This study aims to investigate the potential associations of 23 metals levels with the risk of diabetes among coke oven workers. Methods: The analysis was conducted in a cross-sectional study including 1493 participants. Urinary metals and urinary polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) metabolites levels were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer and gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer respectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate the associations of urinary metal levels with diabetes risk with adjustment for potential confounding factors including gender, age, BMI, education, smoking, drinking, physical activity, hypertension, hyperlipidemia and urinary PAHs metabolites levels. Results: Compared with the normoglycemia group, the levels of urinary copper, zinc, arsenic, selenium, molybdenum, and cadmium were significantly higher in the diabetes group (all p < 0.05). Participants with the highest tertile of urinary copper and zinc had 2.12 (95%CI: 1.12–4.01) and 5.43 (95%CI: 2.61–11.30) fold risk of diabetes. Similar results were found for hyperglycemia risk. Besides, participants with the highest tertile of manganese, barium, and lead had 1.65(1.22–2.23), 1.60(1.19–2.16) and 1.45(1.05–1.99) fold risk of hyperglycemia when compared with the lowest tertlie. Conclusion: The results indicated that the urinary copper and zinc levels were positively associated with the risk of diabetes and hyperglycemia among coke oven workers. Urinary manganese, barium and lead levels were also associated with increased risk of hyperglycemia independently of other traditional risk factors. These findings need further validation

Using reanalysis and drought indices to study portfolio-level climate risk in the industry sector

Science.gov (United States)

Bonnafous, L.

2017-12-01

Water-related hazards including flooding due to extreme rainfall, persistent drought and pollution, either due to industrial operations themselves, or to the failure of infrastructure have emerged as a potential risk for industrial operations. Most companies have risk management plans at each operational location to address these risks to a certain design level. The residual risk may or may not be managed, and is typically not quantified at a portfolio scale, i.e. across many sites. Given that climate is the driver of many of these extreme events, and there is evidence of quasi-periodic climate regimes at inter-annual and decadal timescales, it is possible that a portfolio is subject to persistent, multi-year exceedances of the design level. It is thus likely that there is correlation in the climate-induced portfolio water risk across its operational sites as multiple sites may experience a hazard beyond the design level in a given year. Therefore, a need exists for water risk indexes that allow for an exploration of the possible space and/or time clustering in exposure across many sites contained in a portfolio. Focusing on extreme daily rainfall amounts and monthly to yearly drought, and using examples from major mining companies, we illustrate how such indexes can be developed using reanalysis products as well as gridded datasets of drought indices based on climate data records. For the examples of mining companies provided, we note that the actual exposure is substantially higher than would be expected in the absence of space and time correlation of risk as is often tacitly assumed within the industry. We also find evidence for the increasing exposure to climate-induced risk, and for decadal variability in exposure. The relative vulnerability of different portfolios to multiple extreme events in a given year is also demonstrated.

A new active portfolio risk management for an electricity retailer based on a drawdown risk preference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charwand, Mansour; Gitizadeh, Mohsen; Siano, Pierluigi

2017-01-01

This paper addresses the deciding under uncertainty of an electricity retailer in order to maximise its total expected rate of return. The developed methodology is based on the modelling of the stochastic evolution of zonal prices that seeks to manage a portfolio of different contracts. Retailer's load and the price at each zone are forecasted using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and a clustering technique is used for scenario reduction. Supply sources include the pool, self-production facilities, forward and bilateral contracts. The risk of cost fluctuation due to uncertainties is explicitly modelled using the multi-scenario drawdown methodology. This risk function quantifies in aggregated format the frequency and magnitude of the portfolio drawdowns over planning horizon. In-sample and out-of-sample runs are performed for a portfolio allocation problem. Carried out experimental results on the basis of realistic data, show that imposing risk constraints improve the “real” performance of a portfolio management in out-of-sample runs. - Highlights: • A new drawdown-based method is introduced to retailer deciding under uncertainty. • This tool is used to assess the risk levels regarding retailer midterm strategies. • The methodology is based on the modeling of the stochastic evolution of zonal prices. • The risk function quantifies the frequency and magnitude of the portfolio drawdowns. • In-sample and out-of-sample runs are performed for a portfolio allocation problem.

Association between salivary level of infection with Streptococcus mutans/Lactobacilli and caries-risk factors in mothers.

Science.gov (United States)

Latifi-Xhemajli, B; Véronneau, J; Begzati, A; Bytyci, A; Kutllovci, T; Rexhepi, A

2016-03-01

Understanding factors in mothers associated with high and low salivary levels of Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacilli is an important strategy for early childhood caries prevention. Aim of the study was to identify the association between salivary levels of Streptococcus mutans/Lactobacillus and potential caries risk factors in mothers. Cross-sectional design used a voluntary sample of 300 mothers of young children. Close-ended questions and observations were used to identify mothers' potential caries risk factors. The presence of Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacilli was determined using the CRT bacteria test (Ivoclar Vivadent). All collected information was converted into frequency and proportion describing the prevalence factor in correlation with Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacilli cariogenic bacteria levels of infection. Results Sample participants showed a high caries risk based on socioeconomic, behavioural and clinical factors. also showed high levels (>105) of Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacilli infections among 28% of mothers. Three factors were significantly associated with Streptococcus mutans infection: level of education, past caries experiences, and observable dental plaque, whereas, a fourth factor, frequency of daily tooth brushing, was associated to Lactobacilli infection. This study showed that easily collectible informations such as maternal level of education, frequency of daily tooth brushing and past clinical factors tend to be associated with high level of Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacilli infections in caregivers.

Cancer risks and low-level radiation in U.S. shipyard workers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matanoski, Genevieve M.; Tonascia, James A.; Correa-Villasenor, Adolfo; Yates, Katherine C.; Fink, Nancy; Elliott, Elizabeth; Sanders, Bruce; Lantry, Deborah

2008-01-01

The risks for four cancers, leukemia, lymphopoietic cancers (LHC), lung cancer and mesothelioma, were studied in workers from shipyards involved in nuclear powered ship overhauls. The population represented a sample of all workers based on radiation dose at study termination. The final sample included 28,000 workers with ≥5.0 mSv, 10,462 workers with <5.0 mSv and 33,353 non-nuclear workers. Nuclear workers had lower mortality rates for leukemia and LHC than United States (US) white males but higher rates of lung cancer and a significant five-fold excess of mesothelioma. Dose-dependent analyses of risks in the high exposure group indicated that for each cancer the risk increased at exposures above 10.0 mSv. An internal comparison of workers with 50.0 mSv exposures to workers with exposures of 5.0-9.9 mSv indicated relative risks for leukemia of 2.41 (95% CI: 0.5, 23.8), for LHC, 2.94 (95% CI: 1.0, 12.0), for lung cancer, 1.26 (95% CI: 0.9, 1.9) and for mesothelioma, 1.61 (95% CI: 0.4, 9.7) for the higher exposure group. Except for LHC, these risks are not significant. However, the increasing risk with increasing exposure for these cancers, some of which are known to be related to radiation, suggests that low-level protracted exposures to gamma rays may be associated with these cancers. Other agents such as asbestos, which are common to shipyard work, may play a role especially in the risk of mesothelioma. Future follow up of the population would identify bounds on radiation risks for this population for comparison with similar risks estimated from other populations. (author)

WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

Science.gov (United States)

Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

2016-04-01

Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

A model-based risk management framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

2002-08-15

The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

Changes in Classes of Injury-Related Risks and Consequences of Risk-Level Drinking: a Latent Transition Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cochran, Gerald; Field, Craig; Caetano, Raul

2015-07-01

Risk-level drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related violence are risk factors that result in injuries. The current study sought to identify which subgroups of patients experience the most behavioral change following a brief intervention. A secondary analysis of data from a brief alcohol intervention study was conducted. The sample (N = 664) includes at-risk drinkers who experienced an injury and were admitted for care to a Level 1 trauma center. Injury-related items from the Short Inventory of Problems+6 were used to perform a latent transition analysis to describe class transitions participants experienced following discharge. Four classes emerged for the year before and after the current injury. Most individuals transitioned from higher-risk classes into those with lower risk. Some participants maintained risky profiles, and others increased risks and consequences. Drinking and driving remained a persistent problem among the study participants. Although a large portion of intervention recipients improved risks and consequences of alcohol use following discharge, more intensive intervention services may be needed for a subset of patients who showed little or no improvement.

Extreme lipoprotein(a) levels and risk of myocardial infarction in the general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kamstrup, Pia R; Benn, Marianne; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne

2008-01-01

Elevated lipoprotein(a) levels are associated with myocardial infarction (MI) in some but not all studies. Limitations of previous studies include lack of risk estimates for extreme lipoprotein(a) levels, measurements in long-term frozen samples, no correction for regression dilution bias, and lack...... of absolute risk estimates in the general population. We tested the hypothesis that extreme lipoprotein(a) levels predict MI in the general population, measuring levels shortly after sampling, correcting for regression dilution bias, and calculating hazard ratios and absolute risk estimates....

Risk comparison of different treatment and disposal strategies of high level liquid radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang Dong

1997-01-01

The risk of different treatment and disposal strategies of high level liquid radioactive waste from spent fuel reprocessing is estimated and compared. The conclusions obtained are that risk difference from these strategies is very small and high level liquid waste can be reduced to middle and low level waste, if the decontamination factor for 99 Tc is large enough, which is the largest risk contributor in the high level radioactive waste from spent fuel reprocessing. It is also shown that the risk of high level radioactive waste could be reduced by the technical strategy of combining partitioning and transmutation

An RES-Based Model for Risk Assessment and Prediction of Backbreak in Bench Blasting

Science.gov (United States)

Faramarzi, F.; Ebrahimi Farsangi, M. A.; Mansouri, H.

2013-07-01

Most blasting operations are associated with various forms of energy loss, emerging as environmental side effects of rock blasting, such as flyrock, vibration, airblast, and backbreak. Backbreak is an adverse phenomenon in rock blasting operations, which imposes risk and increases operation expenses because of safety reduction due to the instability of walls, poor fragmentation, and uneven burden in subsequent blasts. In this paper, based on the basic concepts of a rock engineering systems (RES) approach, a new model for the prediction of backbreak and the risk associated with a blast is presented. The newly suggested model involves 16 effective parameters on backbreak due to blasting, while retaining simplicity as well. The data for 30 blasts, carried out at Sungun copper mine, western Iran, were used to predict backbreak and the level of risk corresponding to each blast by the RES-based model. The results obtained were compared with the backbreak measured for each blast, which showed that the level of risk achieved is in consistence with the backbreak measured. The maximum level of risk [vulnerability index (VI) = 60] was associated with blast No. 2, for which the corresponding average backbreak was the highest achieved (9.25 m). Also, for blasts with levels of risk under 40, the minimum average backbreaks (<4 m) were observed. Furthermore, to evaluate the model performance for backbreak prediction, the coefficient of correlation ( R 2) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the model were calculated ( R 2 = 0.8; RMSE = 1.07), indicating the good performance of the model.

Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

2003-01-01

of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

ITIL Based Service Level Management if SLAs Cover Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomas Feglar

2005-08-01

Full Text Available Current level of information technology creates new perspectives for more IT service oriented market. Quality of these services requires slightly different approach then was applied for products including software. No IT services are delivered and supported in risk free environment. Risks would be considered consistently with IT services quality gaps from Service Level Management (SLM perspective. SLM is one of ITIL modules that are widely used within the IT service industry. We identified some weaknesses in how SLM is developed in ITIL environment if service level agreement (SLA has cover Security. We argue that in such cases Architecture modeling and risk assessment approach let us effectively control analytical effort that relates to risks identification and understanding. Risk driven countermeasures designed in a next step (Risk treatment have significant impact to the SLM especially from responsibility perspective. To demonstrate SLM's importance in real practice we analyze SLA synthesize process in CCI (Cyber Critical Infrastructure environment.

On risk assessment of high level radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, C.F.; Kastenberg, W.E.

1976-01-01

One of the major concerns with the continued growth of the nuclear power industry is the production of the high level radioactive wastes. The risks associated with the disposal of these wastes derives from the potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. The development of a methodology for risk analysis is carried out. The methodology suggested involves the probabilistic analysis of a general accident consequence distribution. In this analysis, the frequency aspect of the distribution is treated separately from the normalized probability function. In the final stage of the analysis, the frequency and probability characteristics of the distribution are recombined to provide an estimate of the risk. The characterization of the radioactive source term is accomplished using the ORIGEN computer code. Calculations are carried out for various reactor types and fuel cycles, and the overall waste hazard for a projected 35 year nuclear power program is determined. An index of relative nuclide hazard appropriate to problems involving the management of high level radioactive wastes is developed. As an illustration of the methodology, risk analyses are made for two proposed methods for waste management: extraterrestrial disposal and interim surface storage. The results of these analyses indicate that, within the assumptions used, the risks of these management schemes are small compared with natural background radiation doses. (Auth.)

Value at risk estimation with entropy-based wavelet analysis in exchange markets

Science.gov (United States)

He, Kaijian; Wang, Lijun; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

2014-08-01

In recent years, exchange markets are increasingly integrated together. Fluctuations and risks across different exchange markets exhibit co-moving and complex dynamics. In this paper we propose the entropy-based multivariate wavelet based approaches to analyze the multiscale characteristic in the multidimensional domain and improve further the Value at Risk estimation reliability. Wavelet analysis has been introduced to construct the entropy-based Multiscale Portfolio Value at Risk estimation algorithm to account for the multiscale dynamic correlation. The entropy measure has been proposed as the more effective measure with the error minimization principle to select the best basis when determining the wavelet families and the decomposition level to use. The empirical studies conducted in this paper have provided positive evidence as to the superior performance of the proposed approach, using the closely related Chinese Renminbi and European Euro exchange market.

Multi-Level Risk Factors for Suicidal Ideation Among at-Risk Adolescent Females: The Role of Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal Axis Responses to Stress

Science.gov (United States)

Calhoun, Casey D.; Hastings, Paul D.; Rudolph, Karen D.; Nock, Matthew K.; Prinstein, Mitchell J.

2014-01-01

Adopting a multi-level approach, this study examined risk factors for adolescent suicidal ideation, with specific attention to (a) hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis stress responses and (b) the interplay between HPA-axis and other risk factors from multiple domains (i.e., psychological, interpersonal and biological). Participants were 138 adolescent females (Mage=14.13 years, SD=1.40) at risk for suicidal behaviors. At baseline, lifetime suicidal ideation and a number of risk factors were assessed (i.e., depressive symptoms, impulsiveness, pubertal status and peer stress). Participants were exposed to a psychosocial stress task and HPA-axis responses were assessed by measuring cortisol levels pre- and post-stressor. At 3 months post-baseline, suicidal ideation again was assessed. Using group-based trajectory modeling, three groups of cortisol stress-response patterns were identified (i.e., hyporesponsive, normative, and hyperresponsive). As compared to females in the normative and hyporesponsive group, females in the hyperresponsive group were more likely to report a lifetime history of suicidal ideation at baseline, above and beyond the effects of the other predictors. Moreover, as compared to females in the normative group, females in the hyperresponsive group were at increased risk for reporting suicidal ideation 3 months later, after controlling for prior ideation. No interactions between cortisol group and the other risk factors were significant, with the exception of a non-significant trend between impulsiveness and cortisol group on lifetime suicidal ideation. Findings highlight the importance of HPA-axis responses to acute stressors as a risk factor for suicidal ideation among adolescents. PMID:24958308

Development of new risk based regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, L.

1999-01-01

A short presentation of the oil and gas industry in Norway, and a brief overview of the regulatory regime in the petroleum sector in Norway is given. Risk analysis has been performed in Norway since 1981 and the various applications will be described. These risk analyses are quite different from a nuclear PSA and some of these differences will be commented. Risk based optimisation techniques such as RCM (Reliability Centred Maintenance) and Risk Based Inspection is used in the industry, with very limited support from the risk analysis. Some of the limitation that exist when such techniques are imported from other industries will be commented on. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) is revising our regulations and some of the future plants when it comes to risk informed regulatory requirements will be presented. (au)

Blood trihalomethane levels and the risk of total cancer mortality in US adults

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Min, Jin-Young; Min, Kyoung-Bok

2016-01-01

Background: Although animal data have suggested the carcinogenic activity of trihalomethanes (THMs), there is inconsistent evidence supporting the link between THM exposure and cancers in humans. Objectives: We investigated the association between specific and total blood THM levels with the risk of total cancer mortality in adults. Methods: We analyzed data from the 1999–2004 Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Linked Mortality File of the United States. A total of 933 adults (20–59 years of age) with available blood THM levels and no missing data for other variables were included. Four different THM species (chloroform, bromodichloromethane (BDCM), dibromochloromethane (DBCM) and bromoform) were included, and the codes associated with cancer (malignant neoplasm) were C00 through C97, based on the underlying causes of death listed in the International Classification of Disease 10the Revision. Results: Compared with adults in the lowest DBCM, bromoform, and total brominated THM tertiles, those in the highest DBCM, bromoform, and total brominated THM tertiles exhibited adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of total cancer mortality of 4.97 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.59–15.50), 4.94 (95% CI = 1.56–15.61), and 3.42 (95% CI = 1.21–15.43) respectively. The risk of total cancer mortality was not associated with increases in blood chloroform and total THM levels. Conclusions: We found that the baseline blood THM species, particularly brominated THMs, were significantly associated with total cancer mortality in adults. Although this study should be confirm by other studies, our findings suggest a possible link between THM exposures and cancer. - Highlights: • Trihalomethanes (THM) are classified as either probable or possible carcinogens. • Limited evidence on the link between THM and the incidence of cancer in humans. • We investigated the association between blood THM levels and the risk of total cancer mortality. • High

Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholls, Robert J.

2017-04-01

Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

Evaluating Partnerships to Enhance Disaster Risk Management using Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Application at the Pan-European Level

Science.gov (United States)

Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Lorant, Anna

2018-01-01

Disaster risk is increasingly recognized as a major development challenge. Recent calls emphasize the need to proactively engage in disaster risk reduction, as well as to establish new partnerships between private and public sector entities in order to decrease current and future risks. Very often such potential partnerships have to meet different objectives reflecting on the priorities of stakeholders involved. Consequently, potential partnerships need to be assessed on multiple criteria to determine weakest links and greatest threats in collaboration. This paper takes a supranational multi-sector partnership perspective, and considers possible ways to enhance disaster risk management in the European Union by better coordination between the European Union Solidarity Fund, risk reduction efforts, and insurance mechanisms. Based on flood risk estimates we employ a risk-layer approach to determine set of options for new partnerships and test them in a high-level workshop via a novel cardinal ranking based multi-criteria approach. Whilst transformative changes receive good overall scores, we also find that the incorporation of risk into budget planning is an essential condition for successful partnerships.

The persistence of risk levels of general equity funds in an emerging market economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rousseau Lötter

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The persistence of risk levels of local General Equity unit trusts is evaluated. Variations in absolute and market-adjusted returns are measured to determine whether investors can use historical risk as a proxy for future risk levels. The General Equity funds are fairly homogenous, and different funds should exhibit stable risk levels if the fund managers’ investment mandates and investment styles remain stable over time. The results indicate a degree of absolute and market-adjusted risk stability over time. The market-adjusted risk and return relationship remained stable through the 2008 global crises, indicating that, on average, the fund managers maintained their benchmark-related risk exposures. Both the absolute and market-adjusted results indicate no statistically significant relationship between risk and return for the 2000 to 2012 period.

The persistence of risk levels of general equity funds in an emerging market economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rousseau Lötter

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The persistence of risk levels of local General Equity unit trusts is evaluated. Variations in absolute and market-adjusted returns are measured to determine whether investors can use historical risk as a proxy for future risk levels. The General Equity funds are fairly homogenous, and different funds should exhibit stable risk levels if the fund managers’ investment mandates and investment styles remain stable over time. The results indicate a degree of absolute and market-adjusted risk stability over time. The market-adjusted risk and return relationship remained stable through the 2008 global crises, indicating that, on average, the fund managers maintained their benchmark-related risk exposures. Both the absolute and market-adjusted results indicate no statistically significant relationship between risk and return for the 2000 to 2012 period.

DEPENDENCE OF COUNTRY RISK COMPARED TO THE FOREIGN DEBT LEVEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelica BĂCESCU-CĂRBUNARU

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The article presents some of the fundamental aspects of country risk’dependence compared to foreign debt level. Starting from external debt burden we analyze the usage of foreign loans, foreign debt bearing capacity as well as the availability of data regarding the external debt. Country risk represents the exposure to losses which may occur in a business with a foreign partner, caused by specific events that are, at least partially, controlled by the partner country’ government. Macroeconomic analysis of economic and financial component of country risk involves how this risk is influenced by government policy, by the economic role of government, bypricing strategies, investment priorities, financial structures, macroeconomic policy, by the ability to obtain foreign funds, the level of external debt as well as the liquidity and cash flows in that country.

Maternal serum lead level during pregnancy is positively correlated with risk of preterm birth in a Chinese population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Jun; Wang, Hua; Hao, Jia-Hu; Chen, Yuan-Hua; Liu, Lu; Yu, Zhen; Fu, Lin; Tao, Fang-Biao; Xu, De-Xiang

2017-01-01

Lead (Pb) is a well-known developmental toxicant. The aim of the present study was to analyze the association between maternal serum Pb level and risk of preterm birth in a population-based birth cohort study. The present study analyzed a sub-study of the China-Anhui Birth Cohort that recruited 3125 eligible mother-and-singleton-offspring pairs. Maternal serum Pb level was measured by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. All subjects were classified into three groups by tertile division according to serum Pb level: Low-Pb (L-Pb, <1.18 μg/dl), Medium-Pb (M-Pb, 1.18–1.70 μg/dl), and High-Pb (H-Pb, ≥1.71 μg/dl). The rate of preterm birth was 2.8% among subjects with L-Pb, 6.1% among subjects with M-Pb, and 8.1% among subjects with H-Pb, respectively. After controlling confounding factors, the adjusted OR for preterm birth was 2.33 (95%CI: 1.49, 3.65) among subjects with M-Pb and 3.09 (95%CI: 2.01, 4.76) among subjects with H-Pb. Of interest, maternal Pb exposure in early gestational stage than in middle gestational stage was more susceptible to preterm birth. Moreover, maternal serum Pb level was only associated with increased risk of late preterm birth. The present study provides evidence that maternal serum Pb level during pregnancy is positively associated with risk of preterm birth in a Chinese population. - Highlights: • Environmental Pb exposure during pregnancy elevates risk of preterm birth. • Environmental Pb exposure during pregnancy elevates risk of moderate and late preterm birth. • Environmental Pb exposure at early or middle gestational stage elevates risk of preterm birth. - Maternal serum Pb level during pregnancy is positively associated with risk of preterm birth in a Chinese population.

The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dias, Cláudia Camila; Pereira Rodrigues, Pedro; Fernandes, Samuel; Portela, Francisco; Ministro, Paula; Martins, Diana; Sousa, Paula; Lago, Paula; Rosa, Isadora; Correia, Luis; Moura Santos, Paula; Magro, Fernando

2017-01-01

Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease known to carry a high risk of disabling and many times requiring surgical interventions. This article describes a decision-tree based approach that defines the CD patients' risk or undergoing disabling events, surgical interventions and reoperations, based on clinical and demographic variables. This multicentric study involved 1547 CD patients retrospectively enrolled and divided into two cohorts: a derivation one (80%) and a validation one (20%). Decision trees were built upon applying the CHAIRT algorithm for the selection of variables. Three-level decision trees were built for the risk of disabling and reoperation, whereas the risk of surgery was described in a two-level one. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the area under the curves (AUC) Was higher than 70% for all outcomes. The defined risk cut-off values show usefulness for the assessed outcomes: risk levels above 75% for disabling had an odds test positivity of 4.06 [3.50-4.71], whereas risk levels below 34% and 19% excluded surgery and reoperation with an odds test negativity of 0.15 [0.09-0.25] and 0.50 [0.24-1.01], respectively. Overall, patients with B2 or B3 phenotype had a higher proportion of disabling disease and surgery, while patients with later introduction of pharmacological therapeutic (1 months after initial surgery) had a higher proportion of reoperation. The decision-tree based approach used in this study, with demographic and clinical variables, has shown to be a valid and useful approach to depict such risks of disabling, surgery and reoperation.

Development in risk level in land-based installations in Norwegian petroleum industry. Phase 7 report 2006; Utvikling i risikonivaa i landbaserte anlegg i norsk petroleumsvirksomhet. Fase 7 rapport 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-04-15

The project's main objective is to establish and evaluate status and trends for the risk level for the petroleum industry as a whole. The report focuses on land-based installations, with emphasis on the six installations in normal operation. 2006 is the first year data has been collected from the land-based plants. Reports are therefore carried out in a limited extent, with the main focus on registration, analyses and evaluations of data according to defined risk and accident situations. There is a variation between the plants in the reporting of data. It has been considered extending the land-based part of the project in phase 8 with social science analyses in order to provide a broader picture of the health, security and environmental (HSE) conditions and to gain a complementary perspective at the conditions at the installations (ml)

Use of traits-based bioassessment approaches in biomonitoring and ecological risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brink, van den P.J.; Alexander, A.; Desrosiers, M.; Goedkoop, W.; Goethals, P.L.M.; Liess, M.; Dyer, S.

2011-01-01

We discuss the application of traits-based bioassessment approaches in retrospective bioassessment as well as in prospective ecological risk assessments in regulatory frameworks. Both approaches address the interaction between species and stressors and their consequences at different levels of

Biases in Farm-Level Yield Risk Analysis due to Data Aggregation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Finger, R.

2012-01-01

We investigate biases in farm-level yield risk analysis caused by data aggregation from the farm-level to regional and national levels using the example of Swiss wheat and barley yields. The estimated yield variability decreases significantly with increasing level of aggregation, with crop yield

Time-based collision risk modeling for air traffic management

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Alan E.

Since the emergence of commercial aviation in the early part of last century, economic forces have driven a steadily increasing demand for air transportation. Increasing density of aircraft operating in a finite volume of airspace is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the risk of collision, and in response to a growing number of incidents and accidents involving collisions between aircraft, governments worldwide have developed air traffic control systems and procedures to mitigate this risk. The objective of any collision risk management system is to project conflicts and provide operators with sufficient opportunity to recognize potential collisions and take necessary actions to avoid them. It is therefore the assertion of this research that the currency of collision risk management is time. Future Air Traffic Management Systems are being designed around the foundational principle of four dimensional trajectory based operations, a method that replaces legacy first-come, first-served sequencing priorities with time-based reservations throughout the airspace system. This research will demonstrate that if aircraft are to be sequenced in four dimensions, they must also be separated in four dimensions. In order to separate aircraft in four dimensions, time must emerge as the primary tool by which air traffic is managed. A functional relationship exists between the time-based performance of aircraft, the interval between aircraft scheduled to cross some three dimensional point in space, and the risk of collision. This research models that relationship and presents two key findings. First, a method is developed by which the ability of an aircraft to meet a required time of arrival may be expressed as a robust standard for both industry and operations. Second, a method by which airspace system capacity may be increased while maintaining an acceptable level of collision risk is presented and demonstrated for the purpose of formulating recommendations for procedures

Effect of risk-based payment model on caries inequalities in preschool children assessed by geo-mapping.

Science.gov (United States)

Holmén, Anders; Strömberg, Ulf; Håkansson, Gunnel; Twetman, Svante

2018-01-05

To describe, with aid of geo-mapping, the effects of a risk-based capitation model linked to caries-preventive guidelines on the polarization of caries in preschool children living in the Halland region of Sweden. The new capitation model was implemented in 2013 in which more money was allocated to Public Dental Clinics surrounded by administrative parishes inhabited by children with increased caries risk, while a reduced capitation was allocated to those clinics with a low burden of high risk children. Regional geo-maps of caries risk based on caries prevalence, level of education and the families purchasing power were produced for 3-6-year-old children in 2010 (n = 10,583) and 2016 (n = 7574). Newly migrated children to the region (n = 344 in 2010 and n = 522 in 2016) were analyzed separately. A regional caries polarization index was calculated as the ratio between the maximum and minimum estimates of caries frequency on parish-level, based on a Bayesian hierarchical mapping model. Overall, the total caries prevalence (dmfs > 0) remained unchanged from 2010 (10.6%) to 2016 (10.5%). However, the polarization index decreased from 7.0 in 2010 to 5.6 in 2016. Newly arrived children born outside Sweden had around four times higher caries prevalence than their Swedish-born peers. A risk-based capitation model could reduce the socio-economic inequalities in dental caries among preschool children living in Sweden. Although updated evidence-based caries-preventive guidelines were released, the total prevalence of caries on dentin surface level was unaffected 4 years after the implementation.

Incorporating stand level risk management options into forest decision support systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyle Eyvindson

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: To examine methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty to stand level forest decisions. Area of study: A case study examines a small forest holding from Jönköping, Sweden. Material and methods: We incorporate empirically estimated uncertainty into the simulation through a Monte Carlo approach when simulating the forest stands for the next 100 years. For the iterations of the Monte Carlo approach, errors were incorporated into the input data which was simulated according to the Heureka decision support system. Both the Value at Risk and the Conditional Value at Risk of the net present value are evaluated for each simulated stand. Main results: Visual representation of the errors can be used to highlight which decision would be most beneficial dependent on the decision maker’s opinion of the forest inventory results. At a stand level, risk preferences can be rather easily incorporated into the current forest decision support software. Research highlights: Forest management operates under uncertainty and risk. Methods are available to describe this risk in an understandable fashion for the decision maker.

Validation of risk-based performance indicators: Safety system function trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Azarm, M.A.; Carbonaro, J.F.; Usher, J.L.; Oden, N.

1989-10-01

This report describes and applies a process for validating a model for a risk-based performance indicator. The purpose of the risk-based indicator evaluated, Safety System Function Trend (SSFT), is to monitor the unavailability of selected safety systems. Interim validation of this indicator is based on three aspects: a theoretical basis, an empirical basis relying on statistical correlations, and case studies employing 25 plant years of historical data collected from five plants for a number of safety systems. Results using the SSFT model are encouraging. Application of the model through case studies dealing with the performance of important safety systems shows that statistically significant trends in, and levels of, system performance can be discerned which thereby can provide leading indications of degrading and/or improving performances. Methods for developing system performance tolerance bounds are discussed and applied to aid in the interpretation of the trends in this risk-based indicator. Some additional characteristics of the SSFT indicator, learned through the data-collection efforts and subsequent data analyses performed, are also discussed. The usefulness and practicality of other data sources for validation purposes are explored. Further validation of this indicator is noted. Also, additional research is underway in developing a more detailed estimator of system unavailability. 9 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

Doses of low level ionizing radiation; a misunderstood risk, however unavoidable

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicolli, D.

1988-01-01

The treatment given by international organizations and associations to the problems of radiation exposures, and the recommendations and norms for calculating risks of low level radiation are analysed. It is shown that there are not zero risks for nuclear energy, and emphasis is given to the risks of natural radiation from environment. (M.C.K.) [pt

Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

2012-01-01

Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

Risk prediction of cardiovascular death based on the QTc interval

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jonas B; Graff, Claus; Rasmussen, Peter V

2014-01-01

electrocardiograms from 173 529 primary care patients aged 50-90 years were collected during 2001-11. The Framingham formula was used for heart rate-correction of the QT interval. Data on medication, comorbidity, and outcomes were retrieved from administrative registries. During a median follow-up period of 6......AIMS: Using a large, contemporary primary care population we aimed to provide absolute long-term risks of cardiovascular death (CVD) based on the QTc interval and to test whether the QTc interval is of value in risk prediction of CVD on an individual level. METHODS AND RESULTS: Digital...

Effect of Area-Level Socioeconomic Deprivation on Risk of Cognitive Dysfunction in Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

McCann, Adrian; McNulty, Helene; Rigby, Jan; Hughes, Catherine F; Hoey, Leane; Molloy, Anne M; Cunningham, Conal J; Casey, Miriam C; Tracey, Fergal; O'Kane, Maurice J; McCarroll, Kevin; Ward, Mary; Moore, Katie; Strain, J J; Moore, Adrian

2018-02-12

To investigate the relationship between area-level deprivation and risk of cognitive dysfunction. Cross-sectional analysis. The Trinity, Ulster, and Department of Agriculture (TUDA) study from 2008 to 2012. Community-dwelling adults aged 74.0 ± 8.3 without dementia (N = 5,186; 67% female). Adopting a cross-jurisdictional approach, geo-referenced address-based information was used to map and link participants to official socioeconomic indicators of deprivation within the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. Participants were assigned an individual deprivation score related to the smallest administrative area in which they lived. These scores were categorized into comparable quintiles, that were then used to integrate the datasets from both countries. Cognitive health was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE); cognitive dysfunction was defined as a MMSE score of 24 or less. Approximately one-quarter of the cohort resided within the most-deprived districts in both countries. Greater area-level deprivation was associated with significantly lower MMSE scores; fewer years of formal education; greater anxiety, depression, smoking and alcohol use, and obesity; and more adverse outcomes, including higher blood pressure and diabetes risk. After adjustment for relevant covariates, area deprivation was associated with significantly higher risk of cognitive dysfunction (odds ratio =1.40, 95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.87, P = .02, for most vs least deprived). This analysis combining data from two health systems shows that area deprivation is an independent risk factor for cognitive dysfunction in older adults. Adults living in areas of greatest socioeconomic deprivation may benefit from targeted strategies aimed at improving modifiable risk factors for dementia. Further cross-national analysis investigating the impact of area-level deprivation is needed to address socioeconomic disparities and shape future policy to improve health outcomes in older

Monumental Masonry Buildings Pre-Assessment Method Based on Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meltem VATAN

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Depending on the construction period, geometrical typology, construction and organization of the structure, element size and construction material of historic monumental structures; constructed with bricks, stones, adobe and mortar, are diverse and very complicated. Structural safety is guaranteed by the codes, guidelines, and specifications for recently constructed concrete and steel buildings, but there is no specific criterion for evaluating the historic monumental buildings. This study presents a scoring system method for classifying the risk level of the historic monumental structures based on visual information. This method is based on the acquisition of visual data of the building by using the developed building inspection form, storage of the acquired data on the web database and evaluation of the risk score of the inspected building automatically by the computer database system.

Risk-Based Management of Contaminated Groundwater: The Role of Geologic Heterogeneity, Exposure and Cancer Risk in Determining the Performance of Aquifer Remediation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maxwell, R.M.; Carle, S.F.; Tompson, A.F.B.

2000-01-01

The effectiveness of aquifer remediation is typically expressed in terms of a reduction in contaminant concentrations relative to a regulated maximum contaminant level (MCL), and is usually confined by sparse monitoring data and/or simple model calculations. Here, the effectiveness of remediation is examined from a risk-based perspective that goes beyond the traditional MCL concept. A methodology is employed to evaluate the health risk to individuals exposed to contaminated household water that is produced from groundwater. This approach explicitly accounts for differences in risk arising from variability in individual physiology and water use, the uncertainty in estimating chemical carcinogenesis for different individuals, and the uncertainties and variability in contaminant concentrations within groundwater. A hypothetical contamination scenario is developed as a case study in a saturated, alluvial aquifer underlying a real Superfund site. A baseline (unremediated) human exposure and health risk scenario, as induced by contaminated groundwater pumped from this site, is predicted and compared with a similar estimate based upon pump-and-treat exposure intervention. The predicted reduction in risk in the remediation scenario is not an equitable one-that is, it is not uniform to all individuals within a population and varies according to the level of uncertainty in prediction. The importance of understanding the detailed hydrogeologic connections that are established in the heterogeneous geologic regime between the contaminated source, municipal receptors, and remediation wells, and its relationship to this uncertainty is demonstrated. Using two alternative pumping rates, we develop cost-benefit curves based upon reduced exposure and risk to different individuals within the population, under the presence of uncertainty

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

Science.gov (United States)

Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

1986-01-01

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

A risk-based approach to prioritize underground storage tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chidambariah, V.; Travis, C.C.; Trabalka, J.R.; Thomas, J.K.

1992-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present a risk-based approach for rapid prioritization of low level liquid radioactive waste underground storage tanks (LLLW USTs) for possible interim corrective measures and/or ultimate closure. The ranking of LLLW USTs is needed to ensure that tanks with the greatest potential for adverse impact on the environment and human health receive top priority for further evaluation and remediation. Wastes from the LLLW USTs at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) were pumped out at the time the tanks were removed from service. The residual liquids and sludge contain a mixture of radionuclides and chemicals. Contaminants of concern that were identified in the liquid phase of the inactive LLLW USTs include, the radionuclides, 9O Sr, 137 Cs and 233 U and the chemicals, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethene, tetrachloroethene, methyl ethyl ketone, mercury, lead and chromium. The risk-based approach for prioritization of the LLLW USTs is based upon three major criteria: (1) leaking characteristics of the tank; (2) location of the tanks; and (3) toxic potential of the tank contents

Managing Risk Areas in Software Development Offshoring: A CMMI Level 5 Case

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Persson, John Stouby; Schlichter, Bjarne Rerup

2015-01-01

Software companies are increasingly offshoring development to countries with high expertise at lower cost. Offshoring involves particular risk areas that if ignored increase the likelihood of failure. However, the offshoring client’s maturity level may influence the management of these risk areas....... Against this backdrop, we present an interpretive case study of how managers perceive and mitigate the risk areas in software development offshoring with a mature CMMI level 5 (Capability Maturity Model, Integrated) software company as the client. We find that managers perceive and mitigate most...

Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation according to optimal, borderline, or elevated levels of risk factors: cohort study based on longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study

Science.gov (United States)

Staerk, Laila; Wang, Biqi; Preis, Sarah R; Larson, Martin G; Lubitz, Steven A; Ellinor, Patrick T; McManus, David D; Ko, Darae; Weng, Lu-Chen; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Frost, Lars; Benjamin, Emelia J

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine the association between risk factor burdens—categorized as optimal, borderline, or elevated—and the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. Design Community based cohort study. Setting Longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study. Participants Individuals free of atrial fibrillation at index ages 55, 65, and 75 years were assessed. Smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, and history of heart failure or myocardial infarction were assessed as being optimal (that is, all risk factors were optimal), borderline (presence of borderline risk factors and absence of any elevated risk factor), or elevated (presence of at least one elevated risk factor) at index age. Main outcome measure Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation at index age up to 95 years, accounting for the competing risk of death. Results At index age 55 years, the study sample comprised 5338 participants (2531 (47.4%) men). In this group, 247 (4.6%) had an optimal risk profile, 1415 (26.5%) had a borderline risk profile, and 3676 (68.9%) an elevated risk profile. The prevalence of elevated risk factors increased gradually when the index ages rose. For index age of 55 years, the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 37.0% (95% confidence interval 34.3% to 39.6%). The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 23.4% (12.8% to 34.5%) with an optimal risk profile, 33.4% (27.9% to 38.9%) with a borderline risk profile, and 38.4% (35.5% to 41.4%) with an elevated risk profile. Overall, participants with at least one elevated risk factor were associated with at least 37.8% lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. The gradient in lifetime risk across risk factor burden was similar at index ages 65 and 75 years. Conclusions Regardless of index ages at 55, 65, or 75 years, an optimal risk factor profile was associated with a lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation of about one in five; this risk rose to more than one in three in individuals with at least

Can we define a tolerable level of risk in food allergy? Report from a EuroPrevall/UK Food Standards Agency workshop

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Allen, K. J.

2012-01-01

and that it is essential to address the current lack of agreed action levels for cross‐contamination with allergens if food allergen management practice is to be improved. The discussions also indicated that it was difficult to define and quantify a tolerable level of risk, although both the clinical and the industry......There is an emerging consensus that, as with other risks in society, zero risk for food‐allergic people is not a realistic or attainable option. Food allergy challenge data and new risk assessment methods offer the opportunity to develop quantitative limits for unintended allergenic ingredients...... which can be used in risk‐based approaches. However, a prerequisite to their application is defining a tolerable level of risk. This requires a value judgement and is ultimately a ‘societal’ decision that has to involve all relevant stakeholders. The aim of the workshop was to bring together key...

Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gee, Ken; Huynh, Loc C.; Manning, Ted

2014-01-01

A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

Screening Models for Cardiac Risk Evaluation in Emergency Abdominal Surgery. I. Evaluation of the Intraoperative Period Risk based on Data from the Preoperative Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikhail Matveev

2008-04-01

Full Text Available A classification of intraoperative cardio-vascular complications (CVC was performed, based on data from 466 patients subjected to emergency surgery, due to severe abdominal surgical diseases or traumas, in accordance with the severe criteria of ACC/AHA for CVC in noncardiac surgery. There were 370 intraoperative CVC registered, distributed as follows: groups with low risk (148, moderate risk (200, and high risk (22. Patient groups were formed, according to the CVC risk level, during the intraoperative period, for which the determinant factor for the group distribution of patients was the complication with the highest risk. Individual data was collected for each patient, based on 65 indices: age, physical status, diseases, surgical interventions, anaesthesiological information, intra and postoperative cardio-vascular complications, disease outcome, causes of death, cardiovascular disease anamnesis, anamnesis of all other nonsurgical diseases present, laboratory results, results from all imaging and instrumental examinations, etc. On the basis of these indices, a new distribution of the risk factors was implemented, into groups with different levels of risk of CVC during intraoperative period. This result is a solid argument, substantiating the proposal to introduce these adjustments for determining the severity of CVC in the specific conditions of emergency abdominal surgery.

Developing an objective evaluation method to estimate diabetes risk in community-based settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Kenya, Sonjia; He, Qing; Fullilove, Robert; Kotler, Donald P

2011-05-01

Exercise interventions often aim to affect abdominal obesity and glucose tolerance, two significant risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Because of limited financial and clinical resources in community and university-based environments, intervention effects are often measured with interviews or questionnaires and correlated with weight loss or body fat indicated by body bioimpedence analysis (BIA). However, self-reported assessments are subject to high levels of bias and low levels of reliability. Because obesity and body fat are correlated with diabetes at different levels in various ethnic groups, data reflecting changes in weight or fat do not necessarily indicate changes in diabetes risk. To determine how exercise interventions affect diabetes risk in community and university-based settings, improved evaluation methods are warranted. We compared a noninvasive, objective measurement technique--regional BIA--with whole-body BIA for its ability to assess abdominal obesity and predict glucose tolerance in 39 women. To determine regional BIA's utility in predicting glucose, we tested the association between the regional BIA method and blood glucose levels. Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat area were significantly correlated (r = 0.554, P < 0.003) with fasting glucose. When waist circumference and family history of diabetes were added to abdominal fat in multiple regression models, the association with glucose increased further (r = 0.701, P < 0.001). Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat may predict fasting glucose better than whole-body BIA as well as provide an objective assessment of changes in diabetes risk achieved through physical activity interventions in community settings.

Circulating soluble Fas levels and risk of ovarian cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akhmedkhanov, Arslan; Lenner, Per; Muti, Paola; Rinaldi, Sabina; Kaaks, Rudolf; Berrino, Franco; Hallmans, Göran; Toniolo, Paolo; Lundin, Eva; Guller, Seth; Lukanova, Annekatrin; Micheli, Andrea; Ma, Yuehong; Afanasyeva, Yelena; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Krogh, Vittorio

2003-01-01

Dysregulation of apoptosis, specifically overexpression of soluble Fas (sFas), has been proposed to play a role in the development of ovarian cancer. The main objective of the present study was to evaluate serum sFas as a potential biomarker of ovarian cancer risk. The association between serum sFas levels and the risk of ovarian cancer was examined in a case-control study nested within three prospective cohorts in New York (USA), Umeå (Sweden), and Milan (Italy). Case subjects were 138 women with primary invasive epithelial ovarian cancer diagnosed between 2 months and 13.2 years after the initial blood donation. Control subjects were 263 women who were free of cancer, and matched the case on cohort, menopausal status, age, and enrollment date. Serum sFas levels were determined using a quantitative sandwich enzyme immunoassay. Serum sFas levels were similar in women subsequently diagnosed with ovarian cancer (median, 6.5 ng/mL; range, 4.4 – 10.2) and in controls (median, 6.8 ng/mL; range, 4.5 – 10.1). Statistically significant trends of increasing serum sFas with age were observed among cases (r = 0.39, p < 0.0001) and controls (r = 0.42, p < 0.0001). Compared to women in the lowest third, women in the highest third of serum sFas were not at increased risk of ovarian cancer after adjustment for potential confounders (odd ratio (OR), 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.42 – 1.82). The results suggest that serum sFas may not be a suitable marker for identification of women at increased risk of ovarian cancer

Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

Science.gov (United States)

Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

Computer-based control of nuclear power information systems at international level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boniface, Ekechukwu; Okonkwo, Obi

2011-01-01

In most highly industrialized countries of the world information plays major role in anti-nuclear campaign. Information and discussions on nuclear power need critical and objective analysis before the structured information presentation to the public to avoid bias anti-nuclear information on one side and neglect of great risk in nuclear power. This research is developing a computer-based information system for the control of nuclear power at international level. The system is to provide easy and fast information highways for the followings: (1) Low Regulatory dose and activity limit as level of high danger for individuals and public. (2) Provision of relevant technical or scientific education among the information carriers in the nuclear power countries. The research is on fact oriented investigation about radioactivity. It also deals with fact oriented education about nuclear accidents and safety. A standard procedure for dissemination of latest findings using technical and scientific experts in nuclear technology is developed. The information highway clearly analyzes the factual information about radiation risk and nuclear energy. Radiation cannot be removed from our environment. The necessity of radiation utilizations defines nuclear energy as two-edge sword. It is therefore, possible to use computer-based information system in projecting and dissemination of expert knowledge about nuclear technology positively and also to use it in directing the public on the safety and control of the nuclear energy. The computer-based information highway for nuclear energy technology is to assist in scientific research and technological development at international level. (author)

Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-01

authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ Agencies. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR...COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2-20 contingent probabilities given their dependence on non-probabilistic emissions futures, have extended the ranges of...flood risk provides confidence in the associated projection as a true minimum value for risk management purposes. The contemporary rate observed by

Risk-based analysis methods applied to nuclear power plant technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

1989-01-01

A computer-aided methodology and practical applications of risk-based evaluation of technical specifications are described. The methodology, developed for use by the utility industry, is a part of the overall process of improving nuclear power plant technical specifications. The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a probabilistic risk assessment or a system-level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at the plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns and decreasing labor requirements for test and maintenance activities, with no adverse impacts on risk. The methodology and the SOCRATES computer program have been used extensively toe valuate several actual technical specifications in case studies demonstrating the methods. Summaries of these applications demonstrate the types of results achieved and the usefulness of the risk-based evaluation in improving the technical specifications

Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.

2002-01-01

In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for

Forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Guo, Qizhong; Chen, Yaqian; Lu, Mengxiong; Tinoco, Luis

2014-02-01

In order to reduce the losses by water pollution, forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory was studied. This model is built upon risk indexes in complex systems, proceeding from the whole structure and its components. In this study, the principal components analysis is used to screen out index systems. Hydrological model is employed to simulate index value according to the prediction principle. Bayes theory is adopted to obtain posterior distribution by prior distribution with sample information which can make samples' features preferably reflect and represent the totals to some extent. Forewarning level is judged on the maximum probability rule, and then local conditions for proposing management strategies that will have the effect of transforming heavy warnings to a lesser degree. This study takes Taihu Basin as an example. After forewarning model application and vertification for water pollution risk from 2000 to 2009 between the actual and simulated data, forewarning level in 2010 is given as a severe warning, which is well coincide with logistic curve. It is shown that the model is rigorous in theory with flexible method, reasonable in result with simple structure, and it has strong logic superiority and regional adaptability, providing a new way for warning water pollution risk.

Quantifying risks experienced by populations exposed to low levels of environmental contaminants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.

1985-05-01

The objective was to provide a direct assessment of risks associated with exposures at the actual levels of interest. There are several epidemiological studies of populations that have received occupational exposure to radiation including workers at the Hanford nuclear facility. This population was used as a typical example to illustrate methods of analyzing such data. The Hanford data appear to demonstrate directly that risk estimates obtained by linear extrapolation from data on populations exposed at high levels are unlikely to underestimate risks by a factor greater than three. 15 refs

Quantitative influence of risk factors on blood glucose level.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Songjing; Luo, Senlin; Pan, Limin; Zhang, Tiemei; Han, Longfei; Zhao, Haixiu

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to quantitatively analyze the influence of risk factors on the blood glucose level, and to provide theory basis for understanding the characteristics of blood glucose change and confirming the intervention index for type 2 diabetes. The quantitative method is proposed to analyze the influence of risk factors on blood glucose using back propagation (BP) neural network. Ten risk factors are screened first. Then the cohort is divided into nine groups by gender and age. According to the minimum error principle, nine BP models are trained respectively. The quantitative values of the influence of different risk factors on the blood glucose change can be obtained by sensitivity calculation. The experiment results indicate that weight is the leading cause of blood glucose change (0.2449). The second factors are cholesterol, age and triglyceride. The total ratio of these four factors reaches to 77% of the nine screened risk factors. And the sensitivity sequences can provide judgment method for individual intervention. This method can be applied to risk factors quantitative analysis of other diseases and potentially used for clinical practitioners to identify high risk populations for type 2 diabetes as well as other disease.

Risk of death from cardiovascular disease associated with low-level arsenic exposure among long-term smokers in a US population-based study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farzan, Shohreh F.; Chen, Yu; Rees, Judy R.; Zens, M. Scot; Karagas, Margaret R.

2015-01-01

High levels of arsenic exposure have been associated with increases in cardiovascular disease risk. However, studies of arsenic's effects at lower exposure levels are limited and few prospective studies exist in the United States using long-term arsenic exposure biomarkers. We conducted a prospective analysis of the association between toenail arsenic and cardiovascular disease mortality using longitudinal data collected on 3939 participants in the New Hampshire Skin Cancer Study. Using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders, we estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the risk of death from any cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, in relation to natural-log transformed toenail arsenic concentrations. In this US population, although we observed no overall association, arsenic exposure measured from toenail clipping samples was related to an increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality among long-term smokers (as reported at baseline), with increased hazard ratios among individuals with ≥ 31 total smoking years (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.27), ≥ 30 pack-years (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.45), and among current smokers (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.75). These results are consistent with evidence from more highly exposed populations suggesting a synergistic relationship between arsenic exposure and smoking on health outcomes and support a role for lower-level arsenic exposure in ischemic heart disease mortality. - Highlights: • Arsenic (As) has been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. • Little is known about CVD effects at lower levels of As exposure common in the US. • Few have investigated the joint effects of As and smoking on CVD in US adults. • We examine chronic low-level As exposure and smoking in relation to CVD mortality. • Arsenic exposure may increase ischemic heart disease mortality among smokers in US

Risk of death from cardiovascular disease associated with low-level arsenic exposure among long-term smokers in a US population-based study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farzan, Shohreh F. [Department of Epidemiology, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Lebanon, NH (United States); Departments of Population Health and Environmental Medicine, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY (United States); Chen, Yu [Departments of Population Health and Environmental Medicine, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY (United States); Rees, Judy R.; Zens, M. Scot [Department of Epidemiology, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Lebanon, NH (United States); Karagas, Margaret R., E-mail: margaret.r.karagas@dartmouth.edu [Department of Epidemiology, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Lebanon, NH (United States)

2015-09-01

High levels of arsenic exposure have been associated with increases in cardiovascular disease risk. However, studies of arsenic's effects at lower exposure levels are limited and few prospective studies exist in the United States using long-term arsenic exposure biomarkers. We conducted a prospective analysis of the association between toenail arsenic and cardiovascular disease mortality using longitudinal data collected on 3939 participants in the New Hampshire Skin Cancer Study. Using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders, we estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the risk of death from any cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, in relation to natural-log transformed toenail arsenic concentrations. In this US population, although we observed no overall association, arsenic exposure measured from toenail clipping samples was related to an increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality among long-term smokers (as reported at baseline), with increased hazard ratios among individuals with ≥ 31 total smoking years (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.27), ≥ 30 pack-years (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.45), and among current smokers (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.75). These results are consistent with evidence from more highly exposed populations suggesting a synergistic relationship between arsenic exposure and smoking on health outcomes and support a role for lower-level arsenic exposure in ischemic heart disease mortality. - Highlights: • Arsenic (As) has been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. • Little is known about CVD effects at lower levels of As exposure common in the US. • Few have investigated the joint effects of As and smoking on CVD in US adults. • We examine chronic low-level As exposure and smoking in relation to CVD mortality. • Arsenic exposure may increase ischemic heart disease mortality among smokers in US.

Commercial low-level radioactive waste transportation liability and radiological risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quinn, G.J.; Brown, O.F. II; Garcia, R.S.

1992-08-01

This report was prepared for States, compact regions, and other interested parties to address two subjects related to transporting low-level radioactive waste to disposal facilities. One is the potential liabilities associated with low-level radioactive waste transportation from the perspective of States as hosts to low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities. The other is the radiological risks of low-level radioactive waste transportation for drivers, the public, and disposal facility workers.

Commercial low-level radioactive waste transportation liability and radiological risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quinn, G.J.; Brown, O.F. II; Garcia, R.S.

1992-08-01

This report was prepared for States, compact regions, and other interested parties to address two subjects related to transporting low-level radioactive waste to disposal facilities. One is the potential liabilities associated with low-level radioactive waste transportation from the perspective of States as hosts to low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities. The other is the radiological risks of low-level radioactive waste transportation for drivers, the public, and disposal facility workers

The impact of health claims and food deprivation levels on health risk perceptions of fast-food restaurants.

Science.gov (United States)

Cadario, Romain

2016-01-01

We examined the effect of health claims and food deprivation levels on the health risk perceptions of fast-food restaurants. Consistent with previous research, we used a within-subjects experimental design to manipulate the health claims of fast-food restaurants using real brands: Subway, expressing strong health claims vs. McDonald's, expressing weak health claims. Participants who did not have access to nutrition information were asked to estimate the health risk associated with food items that were slightly more caloric for Subway than McDonald's (640 kcal vs. 600 kcal). We collected data through a web survey with a sample consisting of 414 American adults. Based on the USDA Food Insufficiency Indicator, participants were classified into two categorical food deprivation levels: food sufficiency and food insufficiency. We find that risk perceptions for obesity, diabetes and cardiac illnesses are lower (higher) for the restaurant with stronger (lower) health claims, i.e., Subway (McDonald's). Moreover, we also find that food deprivation levels moderate this effect, such that health risk underestimation is aggravated for individuals who suffer from food insufficiency. More precisely, we find that food insufficient individuals are more responsive to health claims, such that they perceive less health risk than food sufficient individuals for the restaurant with stronger health claims (Subway). Exploring the underlying mechanism of the latter effect, we found that dietary involvement mediates the relationship between food deprivation levels and health risk perceptions for the restaurant with stronger health claims (Subway). These results provide an interdisciplinary contribution in consumer psychology and public health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reevaluation of 1999 Health-Based Environmental Screening Levels (HBESLs) for Chemical Warfare Agents

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watson, Annetta Paule [ORNL; Dolislager, Fredrick G [ORNL

2007-05-01

This report evaluates whether new information and updated scientific models require that changes be made to previously published health-based environmental soil screening levels (HBESLs) and associated environmental fate/breakdown information for chemical warfare agents (USACHPPM 1999). Specifically, the present evaluation describes and compares changes that have been made since 1999 to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk assessment models, EPA exposure assumptions, as well as to specific chemical warfare agent parameters (e.g., toxicity values). Comparison was made between screening value estimates recalculated with current assumptions and earlier health-based environmental screening levels presented in 1999. The chemical warfare agents evaluated include the G-series and VX nerve agents and the vesicants sulfur mustard (agent HD) and Lewisite (agent L). In addition, key degradation products of these agents were also evaluated. Study findings indicate that the combined effect of updates and/or changes to EPA risk models, EPA default exposure parameters, and certain chemical warfare agent toxicity criteria does not result in significant alteration to the USACHPPM (1999) health-based environmental screening level estimates for the G-series and VX nerve agents or the vesicant agents HD and L. Given that EPA's final position on separate Tier 1 screening levels for indoor and outdoor worker screening assessments has not yet been released as of May 2007, the study authors find that the 1999 screening level estimates (see Table ES.1) are still appropriate and protective for screening residential as well as nonresidential sites. As such, risk management decisions made on the basis of USACHPPM (1999) recommendations do not require reconsideration. While the 1999 HBESL values are appropriate for continued use as general screening criteria, the updated '2007' estimates (presented below) that follow the new EPA protocols currently under development

A risk-based decision-aiding tool for waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiner, R.F.; Reiser, A.S.; Elcock, C.G.; Nevins, S.

1997-01-01

N-CART (the National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program Cost Analysis and Risk Tool) is being developed to aid in low-risk, cost-effective, timely management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and can therefore be used in management of mixed waste. N-CART provides evaluation of multiple alternatives and presents the consequences of proposed waste management activities in a clear and concise format. N-CART's decision-aiding analyses include comparisons and sensitivity analyses of multiple alternatives and allows the user to perform quick turn-around open-quotes what ifclose quotes studies to investigate various scenarios. Uncertainties in data (such as cost and schedule of various activities) are represented as distributions. N-CART centralizes documentation of the bases of program alternatives and program decisions, thereby supporting responses to stakeholders concerns. The initial N-CART design considers regulatory requirements, costs, and schedules for alternative courses of action. The final design will include risks (public health, occupational, economic, scheduling), economic benefits, and the impacts of secondary waste generation. An optimization tool is being incorporated that allows the user to specify the relative importance of cost, time risks, and other bases for decisions. The N-CART prototype can be used to compare the costs and schedules of disposal alternatives for mixed low-level radioactive waste (MLLW) and greater-than-Class-C (GTCC) waste, as well as spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and related scrap material

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

Prediagnostic plasma antibody levels to periodontopathic bacteria and risk of coronary heart disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Ueno, Masayuki; Izumi, Yuichi; Kawaguchi, Yoko; Ikeda, Ai; Iso, Hiroyasu; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2012-01-01

Many epidemiological studies have indicated that periodontitis is an important risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether plasma antibody levels to 3 major periodontal pathogens, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, and Prevotella intermedia predicted the risk of CHD events. A nested case-control research design (case: n = 191, control: n = 382), by matching gender, age, study area, date of blood collection, and time since last meal at blood collection, was employed in a large cohort of Japanese community residents.Antibody levels of periodontopathic bacteria were associated with risk of CHD after adjusting for BMI, smoking status, alcohol intake, history of hypertension, history of diabetes mellitus, exercise during leisure time, and perceived mental stress. The association was different by age subgroup. For subjects aged 40-55 years, the medium (31.7-184.9 U/mL) or high tertile plasma antibody level (> 184.9 U/mL) of A. actinomycetemcomitans showed higher risk of CHD (medium: OR = 3.72; 95% CI = 1.20-11.56, high: OR = 4.64; 95% CI = 1.52-14.18) than the low tertile level ( 414.1 U/mL) of P. intermedia was associated with higher risk of CHD (OR = 2.65; 95% CI = 1.18-5.94) in a dose-response fashion (P for trend = 0.007). The possible role of periodontopathic bacteria as a risk factor for CHD incidence was suggested by the results of this study by the elevated antibody level to these bacteria with the increased risk of CHD.

Body mass index in relation to serum prostate-specific antigen levels and prostate cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonn, Stephanie E; Sjölander, Arvid; Tillander, Annika; Wiklund, Fredrik; Grönberg, Henrik; Bälter, Katarina

2016-07-01

High Body mass index (BMI) has been directly associated with risk of aggressive or fatal prostate cancer. One possible explanation may be an effect of BMI on serum levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). To study the association between BMI and serum PSA as well as prostate cancer risk, a large cohort of men without prostate cancer at baseline was followed prospectively for prostate cancer diagnoses until 2015. Serum PSA and BMI were assessed among 15,827 men at baseline in 2010-2012. During follow-up, 735 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer with 282 (38.4%) classified as high-grade cancers. Multivariable linear regression models and natural cubic linear regression splines were fitted for analyses of BMI and log-PSA. For risk analysis, Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and natural cubic Cox regression splines producing standardized cancer-free probabilities were fitted. Results showed that baseline Serum PSA decreased by 1.6% (95% CI: -2.1 to -1.1) with every one unit increase in BMI. Statistically significant decreases of 3.7, 11.7 and 32.3% were seen for increasing BMI-categories of 25 prostate cancer risk although results were indicative of a positive association to incidence rates of high-grade disease and an inverse association to incidence of low-grade disease. However, findings regarding risk are limited by the short follow-up time. In conclusion, BMI was inversely associated to PSA-levels. BMI should be taken into consideration when referring men to a prostate biopsy based on serum PSA-levels. © 2016 UICC.

Effects of an LMR-based partitioning-transmutation system on US nuclear fuel cycle health risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michaels, G.E.; Reich, W.J.

1992-01-01

Health risks for the current US nuclear fuel cycle and for an illustrative partitioning and transmutation (P-T) fuel cycle based on Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR) technology are calculated and compared. Health risks are calculated for all non-reactor fuel cycle steps, including reprocessing, transportation, and high-level waste (HLW) disposal. Uranium mining and milling health risks have been updated to include recent occupational injury and death statistics, and the radiological health risk to the general public posed by the uranium mining overburden. In addition, the radiological health risks for transportation have been updated to include latent cancer fatalities associated with both normal transport and accidents. Given the assumptions of the study, it is shown that the deployment of an LMR-based P-T system is expected to reduce overall nuclear fuel cycle health risk

Risk factors for child maltreatment in an Australian population-based birth cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Doidge, James C; Higgins, Daryl J; Delfabbro, Paul; Segal, Leonie

2017-02-01

Child maltreatment and other adverse childhood experiences adversely influence population health and socioeconomic outcomes. Knowledge of the risk factors for child maltreatment can be used to identify children at risk and may represent opportunities for prevention. We examined a range of possible child, parent and family risk factors for child maltreatment in a prospective 27-year population-based birth cohort of 2443 Australians. Physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect and witnessing of domestic violence were recorded retrospectively in early adulthood. Potential risk factors were collected prospectively during childhood or reported retrospectively. Associations were estimated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions and combined into cumulative risk scores. Higher levels of economic disadvantage, poor parental mental health and substance use, and social instability were strongly associated with increased risk of child maltreatment. Indicators of child health displayed mixed associations and infant temperament was uncorrelated to maltreatment. Some differences were observed across types of maltreatment but risk profiles were generally similar. In multivariate analyses, nine independent risk factors were identified, including some that are potentially modifiable: economic disadvantage and parental substance use problems. Risk of maltreatment increased exponentially with the number of risk factors experienced, with prevalence of maltreatment in the highest risk groups exceeding 80%. A cumulative risk score based on the independent risk factors allowed identification of individuals at very high risk of maltreatment, while a score that incorporated all significant risk and protective factors provided better identification of low-risk individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[National health fund and morbidity-based risk structure equalization with focus on haemophilia].

Science.gov (United States)

König, T

2010-11-01

The Gesundheitsfonds (national health fund) was established in Germany on January 1st, 2009, in combination with the morbidity-based risk structure equalization (RSA) in order to manage the cash flow between the statutory health insurances. The RSA equalizes income differences due to the varying levels of contributory income of the members of a health insurance (basic wage totals) and expenditure differences due to varying distribution of morbidity risks across different health insurances, as well as the varying numbers of non-contributing insured family members. Additionally, insured persons are allocated to morbidity groups according to a classification model based upon diagnoses and prescriptions anticipating medical expenses in the subsequent year. Haemophilia falls, among 80 disease entities, in the morbidity group which generates the highest risk supplement. Matching of prescribed drugs with disease entities facilitates disease grading and improves the accuracy of risk supplements.

Low risk of concussions in top-level karate competition.

Science.gov (United States)

Arriaza, Rafael; Cierna, Dusana; Regueiro, Patricia; Inman, David; Roman, Franco; Abarca, Benjamin; Barrientos, Mercé; Saavedra, Miguel A

2017-02-01

Although it is well known that injuries occur in combat sports, the true incidence of concussions is not clearly defined in the literature for karate competition. To determine the incidence of concussions in top-level (World Karate Federation World Championships) karate competition. Injuries that took place in 4 consecutive World Karate Championships (from 2008 to 2014) were prospectively registered. A total of 4625 fights (2916 in the male category and 1709 in the female category) were scrutinised, and concussions were identified and analysed separately for frequency (rate per fight) and injury risk. A total of 4 concussions were diagnosed by the attending physicians after carrying out athlete examinations. Globally, there was 1 concussion in every 1156 fights, or 0.43/1000 athlete-exposures (AE). In male athletes, the rate of concussion was 1/5832 min of fighting, and in female athletes, it was 1/6836 min. OR for concussion in women is 0.57 (95% CI 0.06 to 5.47; z=0.489; p=0.6249) and risk ratio for concussions in men is RR 1.478 (95% CI 0.271 to 8.072), p=0.528, representing a higher risk of definite concussions in men than in women, but not statistically significant. There is not a significantly higher risk of concussions in team competition (no weight limit) when compared with individual competition (held with strict weight limits for each category). The risk of concussions in top-level karate competition is low, with a tendency for an increased risk for men and for competition without weight limits, but not statistically significant with respect to women or individual competition. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The risk of water scarcity at different levels of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Schewe, Jacob; Sharpe, Simon

2015-04-01

Water scarcity is a threat to human well-being and economic development in many countries today. Future climate change is expected to exacerbate the global water crisis by reducing renewable freshwater resources different world regions, many of which are already dry. Studies of future water scarcity often focus on most-likely, or highest-confidence, scenarios. However, multi-model projections of water resources reveal large uncertainty ranges, which are due to different types of processes (climate, hydrology, human) and are therefore not easy to reduce. Thus, central estimates or multi-model mean results may be insufficient to inform policy and management. Here we present an alternative, risk-based approach. We use an ensemble of multiple global climate and hydrological models to quantify the likelihood of crossing a given water scarcity threshold under different levels of global warming. This approach allows assessing the risk associated with any particular, pre-defined threshold (or magnitude of change that must be avoided), regardless of whether it lies in the center or in the tails of the uncertainty distribution. We show applications of this method on the country and river basin scale, illustrate the effects of societal processes on the resulting risk estimates, and discuss the further potential of this approach for research and stakeholder dialogue.

Application of the risk based inspection in chemical and nuclear installations: a critical evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sousa, Anna Leticia Barbosa de

2004-01-01

Risk-based Inspection (RBI) has arisen as an opportunity for the industry to give a specific treatment to items as equipment integrity, failures consequences and the level of risk of each piece of equipment in the inspection programs definitions. Risk-based inspection programs are replacing the traditional ones based on prescriptive requirements, for both the oil and nuclear industries. The aim of this thesis is to demonstrate how the nuclear industry has gotten over several difficulties in implementing risk-based programs considering that its safety design and regulations have traditionally been based on deterministic and prescriptive criteria and requirements. During the development of the work, the study has shown how the absence of a rigid regulation favored the dissemination of RBI diffusion in the oil industry, mainly in the USA, where such industries do not face those difficulties found by the European plants, as long as it is well known that in Europe there are complex interrelations among documents from different countries with diversity of regulation procedures. (author)

Changes in triglyceride levels and risk for coronary heart disease in young men.

Science.gov (United States)

Tirosh, Amir; Rudich, Assaf; Shochat, Tzippora; Tekes-Manova, Dorit; Israeli, Eran; Henkin, Yaakov; Kochba, Ilan; Shai, Iris

2007-09-18

Current triglyceride levels might be only a weak predictor of risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). To assess the association between changes over time in fasting triglyceride levels and CHD risk in young adults. Follow-up study over 5.5 years after 2 measurements of fasting triglycerides 5 years apart. The Staff Periodic Examination Center of the Israel Defense Forces, Zrifin, Israel. 13,953 apparently healthy, untreated, young men (age 26 to 45 years) with triglyceride levels less than 3.39 mmol/L (<300 mg/dL). Two triglyceride measurements (at enrollment [time 1] and 5 years later [time 2]), lifestyle variables, and incident cases of angiography-proven CHD. Within 5.5 years, 158 new cases of CHD were identified. The multivariate model was adjusted for age; family history; fasting glucose; high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; blood pressure; body mass index; and changes between time 1 and time 2 in body mass index, physical activity, smoking status, and habit of eating breakfast. Investigators categorized triglyceride levels according to low, intermediate, and high tertiles (as measured at time 1 and time 2 [expressed as tertile at time 1/tertile at time 2]). The risk for CHD in men with high-tertile triglyceride levels at time 1 changed depending on the tertile at time 2 (hazard ratios, 8.23 [95% CI, 2.50 to 27.13] for high/high, 6.84 [CI, 1.95 to 23.98] for high/intermediate, and 4.90 [CI, 1.01 to 24.55] for high/low, compared with the stable low/low group). The risk for CHD in men with low-tertile levels at time 1 also changed depending on the tertile at time 2 (hazard ratios, 3.81 [CI, 0.96 to 15.31] for low/intermediate and 6.76 [CI, 1.34 to 33.92] for low/high, compared with the stable low/low group). Participants were healthy and had a low incidence rate of CHD. The study was observational. Two triglyceride measurements obtained 5 years apart may assist in assessing CHD risk in young men. A decrease in initially elevated triglyceride levels is associated

Farmers prone to drought risk : why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

2015-01-01

This research investigates farmers’ cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer

Comparative estimates of risks arising from storage of intermediate level radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, D.

1986-04-01

Estimates are presented of risks arising from accidents occuring during storage of nine types of conditioned intermediate level waste. Additional data are introduced relating to the risks from accidents affecting raw waste, and to risks associated with the occupational doses received during normal operation of a waste store. Risks in all three categories are shown to be extremely small. (author)

[Ecological risk assessment of Taihu Lake basin based on landscape pattern].

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Xiao Ping; Chen, Zhi Cong; Wang, Fang; Bai, Mao Wei; Xu, Wen Yang

2017-10-01

Taihu Lake basin was selected as the study site. Based on the landscape data of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, the Markov and CLUE-S models were used to simulate the landscape types with different scenarios in 2030, and landscape ecological risk index was constructed. The shift of gravity center and spatial statistics were used to reveal landscape ecological risk of Taihu Lake basin with temporal and spatial characteristics. The results showed that the ecological risk mainly was at medium and low levels in Taihu Lake basin, and the higher ecological risk areas were mainly distributed at the Taihu Lake area during 2000 to 2015, and the low ecological risk was transferred from the southwest and south of Taihu Lake to the developed areas in the northern part of Taihu Lake area. Spatial analysis showed that landscape ecological risk had negative correlation with natural factors, which was weakened gradually, while the correlation with socioeconomic factors trended to become stronger, with human disturbance affecting the landscape ecological risk significantly. The impact of socioeconomic factors on landscape ecological risks differed in different urbanization stages. In the developing area, with the economic development, the landscape was increasingly fragmented and the ecological risk was correspondingly increased. While in the developed area, with the further development of the economy, the aggregation index was increased, and fragmentation and separation indexes were decreased, ecological construction was restored, and the landscape ecological risk began to decline. CLUE-S model simulation showed that the ecological risk of Taihu Lake basin would be reduced in future, mainly on the low and relatively low levels. Taihu Lake area, both in history and the future, is a high ecological risk zone, and its management and protection should be strengthened.

The API methodology for risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis for the petroleum and petrochemical industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, J.T.

1998-01-01

Twenty-one petroleum and petrochemical companies are currently sponsoring a project within the American Petroleum Institute (API) to develop risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology for application in the refining and petrochemical industry. This paper describes that particular RBI methodology and provides a summary of the three levels of RBI analysis developed by the project. Also included is a review of the first pilot project to validate the methodology by applying RBI to several existing refining units. The failure for pressure equipment in a process unit can have several undesirable effects. For the purpose of RBI analysis, the API RBI program categorizes these effects into four basic risk outcomes: flammable events, toxic releases, major environmental damage, and business interruption losses. API RBI is a strategic process, both qualitative and quantitative, for understanding and reducing these risks associated with operating pressure equipment. This paper will show how API RBI assesses the potential consequences of a failure of the pressure boundary, as well as assessing the likelihood (probability) of failure. Risk-based inspection also prioritizes risk levels in a systematic manner so that the owner-user can then plan an inspection program that focuses more resources on the higher risk equipment; while possibly saving inspection resources that are not doing an effective job of reducing risk. At the same time, if consequence of failure is a significant driving force for high risk equipment items, plant management also has the option of applying consequence mitigation steps to minimize the impact of a hazardous release, should one occur. The target audience for this paper is engineers, inspectors, and managers who want to understand what API Risk-Based Inspection is all about, what are the benefits and limitations of RBI, and how inspection practices can be changed to reduce risks and/or save costs without impacting safety risk. (Author)

Selecting a Risk-Based SQC Procedure for a HbA1c Total QC Plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Westgard, Sten A; Bayat, Hassan; Westgard, James O

2017-09-01

Recent US practice guidelines and laboratory regulations for quality control (QC) emphasize the development of QC plans and the application of risk management principles. The US Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) now includes an option to comply with QC regulations by developing an individualized QC plan (IQCP) based on a risk assessment of the total testing process. The Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) has provided new practice guidelines for application of risk management to QC plans and statistical QC (SQC). We describe an alternative approach for developing a total QC plan (TQCP) that includes a risk-based SQC procedure. CLIA compliance is maintained by analyzing at least 2 levels of controls per day. A Sigma-Metric SQC Run Size nomogram provides a graphical tool to simplify the selection of risk-based SQC procedures. Current HbA1c method performance, as demonstrated by published method validation studies, is estimated to be 4-Sigma quality at best. Optimal SQC strategies require more QC than the CLIA minimum requirement of 2 levels per day. More complex control algorithms, more control measurements, and a bracketed mode of operation are needed to assure the intended quality of results. A total QC plan with a risk-based SQC procedure provides a simpler alternative to an individualized QC plan. A Sigma-Metric SQC Run Size nomogram provides a practical tool for selecting appropriate control rules, numbers of control measurements, and run size (or frequency of SQC). Applications demonstrate the need for continued improvement of analytical performance of HbA1c laboratory methods.

Pollution characteristics and health risk assessment of heavy metals in the vegetable bases of northwest China.

Science.gov (United States)

Sawut, Rukeya; Kasim, Nijat; Maihemuti, Balati; Hu, Li; Abliz, Abdugheni; Abdujappar, Abdusalam; Kurban, Miradil

2018-06-17

The objective of this study was to investigate heavy metal contamination in four major vegetable bases and determine the health risks of residents in the vicinity of the highly urbanized city Urumqi in Xinjiang, China. In this paper, we determined the contents of six heavy metals (i.e., As, Zn, Cd, Cr, Hg, and Pb) in surface soil and groundwater to evaluate the levels of heavy metal pollution and human health risks using the pollution index (PI), the Nemerow integrated pollution index (NIPI), the ecological risk factor (E i r ), risk index (RI) and the health risk assessment model. The results showed that (1) The PI, NIPI, the ecological risk factor and risk index indicated that Cd and Hg were the primary pollutants in Sishihu village. These indices suggested moderate to slightly heavy potential ecological risks. In Anningqu town, Hg and Cd led to high levels of pollution and posed slightly heavy potential ecological risks. In Qinggedahu village, it was concluded that the metals Zn, Cr, Cd, Hg, and Pb caused moderate to heavy pollution. In Liushihu village, the pollution trends in the area were low. The results of the pollution level of the irrigation well water (i.e., groundwater) indicated that the well water was considerably safer than the soil, but Cr posed a slight pollution risk. (2) The non-carcinogenic risks for adults based on the HI values of these four vegetable bases were  Sishihu village > Anningqu town. For children, the carcinogenic risks posed by As through trough inhalation and ingestion were the main exposure pathways. From the TCR results, it can be seen that in Sishihu village, Anningqu town, and Qinggedahu village, the TCR values for adults and children were >1 × 10 -4 (unitless), and this degree of carcinogenic risk is unacceptable. (3) The identification of risk sources determined the main pollution sources affecting the vegetable bases were human activities and natural sources. Anthropogenic activities were most often related to

The minimum knowledge base for predicting organ-at-risk dose-volume levels and plan-related complications in IMRT planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Hao H; D'Souza, Warren D; Meyer, Robert R; Shi Leyuan

2010-01-01

IMRT treatment planning requires consideration of two competing objectives: achieving the required amount of radiation for the planning target volume and minimizing the amount of radiation delivered to all other tissues. It is important for planners to understand the tradeoff between competing factors so that the time-consuming human interaction loop (plan-evaluate-modify) can be eliminated. Treatment-plan-surface models have been proposed as a decision support tool to aid treatment planners and clinicians in choosing between rival treatment plans in a multi-plan environment. In this paper, an empirical approach is introduced to determine the minimum number of treatment plans (minimum knowledge base) required to build accurate representations of the IMRT plan surface in order to predict organ-at-risk (OAR) dose-volume (DV) levels and complications as a function of input DV constraint settings corresponding to all involved OARs in the plan. We have tested our approach on five head and neck patients and five whole pelvis/prostate patients. Our results suggest that approximately 30 plans were sufficient to predict DV levels with less than 3% relative error in both head and neck and whole pelvis/prostate cases. In addition, approximately 30-60 plans were sufficient to predict saliva flow rate with less than 2% relative error and to classify rectal bleeding with an accuracy of 90%.

The assessment of risks from exposure to low-levels of ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.

1992-06-01

This report is concerned with risk assessments for human populations receiving low level radiation doses; workers routinely exposed to radiation, Japanese victims of nuclear bombs, and the general public are all considered. Topics covered include risk estimates for cancer, mortality rates, risk estimates for nuclear site workers, and dosimetry

Elevated Potassium Levels in Patients With Congestive Heart Failure: Occurrence, Risk Factors, and Clinical Outcomes: A Danish Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomsen, Reimar Wernich; Nicolaisen, Sia Kromann; Hasvold, Pål; Garcia-Sanchez, Ricardo; Pedersen, Lars; Adelborg, Kasper; Egfjord, Martin; Egstrup, Kenneth; Sørensen, Henrik Toft

2018-05-22

Data on the true burden of hyperkalemia in patients with heart failure (HF) in a real-world setting are limited. Incidence rates of hyperkalemia (first blood test with a potassium level >5.0 mmol/L) in primary or hospital care were assessed in a population-based cohort of patients with incident HF diagnoses in northern Denmark from 2000 to 2012. Risk factors and clinical outcomes were compared in patients with HF with versus without hyperkalemia. Of 31 649 patients with HF, 39% experienced hyperkalemia (mean follow-up, 2.2 years). Risks of experiencing a second, third, or fourth event were 43%, 54%, and 60%, respectively. Among patients with HF with stage 3A, 3B, 4, or 5 kidney dysfunction, 26%, 35%, 44%, and 48% experienced hyperkalemia within the first year. Important hyperkalemia risk factors included chronic kidney disease (prevalence ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43-1.49), diabetes mellitus (prevalence ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.32-1.45), and spironolactone use (prevalence ratio, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.42-1.54). In patients with HF who developed hyperkalemia, 53% had any acute-care hospitalization 6 months before the hyperkalemia event, increasing to 74% 6 months after hyperkalemia (before-after risk ratio, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.38-1.44). Compared with matched patients with HF without hyperkalemia, adjusted 6-month hazard ratios in patients with hyperkalemia were 2.75-fold (95% CI, 2.65-2.85) higher for acute-care hospitalization and 3.39-fold (95% CI, 3.19-3.61) higher for death. Almost 4 in 10 patients with HF develop hyperkalemia, and many patients have recurrent hyperkalemia episodes. Hyperkalemia risk is strongly associated with degree of reduced kidney function and use of spironolactone. Hyperkalemia is associated with severe clinical outcomes and death in HF. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Heavy metals pollution levels and children health risk assessment of Yerevan kindergartens soils.

Science.gov (United States)

Tepanosyan, Gevorg; Maghakyan, Nairuhi; Sahakyan, Lilit; Saghatelyan, Armen

2017-08-01

Children, the most vulnerable urban population group, are exceptionally sensitive to polluted environments, particularly urban soils, which can lead to adverse health effects upon exposure. In this study, the total concentrations of Ag, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Ti, V, and Zn were determined in 111 topsoil samples collected from kindergartens in Yerevan. The objectives of this study were to evaluate heavy metal pollution levels of kindergarten's soils in Yerevan, compare with national legal and international requirements on heavy metal contents in kindergarten soil, and assess related child health risk. Multivariate geostatistical analyses suggested that the concentrations of Ag, As, Ba, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mo, Pb, and Zn observed in the kindergarten's topsoil may have originated from anthropogenic sources, while Co, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Ti, and V mostly come from natural sources. According to the Summary pollution index (Zc), 102 kindergartens belong to the low pollution level, 7 to the moderate and only 2 to the high level of pollution. Summary concentration index (SCI) showed that 109 kindergartens were in the allowable level, while 2 featured in the low level of pollution. The health risk assessment showed that in all kindergartens except for seven, non-carcinogenic risk for children was detected (HI>1), while carcinogenic risk from arsenic belongs to the very low (allowable) level. Cr and multi-element carcinogenic risk (RI) exceeded the safety level (1.0E- 06) in all kindergartens and showed that the potential of developing cancer, albeit small, does exist. Therefore, city's kindergartens require necessary remedial actions to eliminate or reduce soil pollution and heavy metal-induced health risks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Life cycle cost-based risk model for energy performance contracting retrofits

Science.gov (United States)

Berghorn, George H.

Buildings account for 41% of the primary energy consumption in the United States, nearly half of which is accounted for by commercial buildings. Among the greatest energy users are those in the municipalities, universities, schools, and hospitals (MUSH) market. Correctional facilities are in the upper half of all commercial building types for energy intensity. Public agencies have experienced reduced capital budgets to fund retrofits; this has led to the increased use of energy performance contracts (EPC), which are implemented by energy services companies (ESCOs). These companies guarantee a minimum amount of energy savings resulting from the retrofit activities, which in essence transfers performance risk from the owner to the contractor. Building retrofits in the MUSH market, especially correctional facilities, are well-suited to EPC, yet despite this potential and their high energy intensities, efficiency improvements lag behind that of other public building types. Complexities in project execution, lack of support for data requests and sub-metering, and conflicting project objectives have been cited as reasons for this lag effect. As a result, project-level risks must be understood in order to support wider adoption of retrofits in the public market, in particular the correctional facility sub-market. The goal of this research is to understand risks related to the execution of energy efficiency retrofits delivered via EPC in the MUSH market. To achieve this goal, in-depth analysis and improved understanding was sought with regard to ESCO risks that are unique to EPC in this market. The proposed work contributes to this understanding by developing a life cycle cost-based risk model to improve project decision making with regard to risk control and reduction. The specific objectives of the research are: (1) to perform an exploratory analysis of the EPC retrofit process and identify key areas of performance risk requiring in-depth analysis; (2) to construct a

Height, Weight, and Aerobic Fitness Level in Relation to the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Crump, Casey; Sundquist, Jan; Winkleby, Marilyn A; Sundquist, Kristina

2018-03-01

Tall stature and obesity have been associated with a higher risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), but there have been conflicting reports of the effects of aerobic fitness. We conducted a national cohort study to examine interactions between height or weight and level of aerobic fitness among 1,547,478 Swedish military conscripts during 1969-1997 (97%-98% of all 18-year-old men) in relation to AF identified from nationwide inpatient and outpatient diagnoses through 2012 (maximal age, 62 years). Increased height, weight, and aerobic fitness level (but not muscular strength) at age 18 years were all associated with a higher AF risk in adulthood. Positive additive and multiplicative interactions were found between height or weight and aerobic fitness level (for the highest tertiles of height and aerobic fitness level vs. the lowest, relative excess risk = 0.51, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40, 0.62; ratio of hazard ratios = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.34, 1.65). High aerobic fitness levels were associated with higher risk among men who were at least 186 cm (6 feet, 1 inch) tall but were protective among shorter men. Men with the combination of tall stature and high aerobic fitness level had the highest risk (for the highest tertiles vs. the lowest, adjusted hazard ratio = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.61, 1.80). These findings suggest important interactions between body size and aerobic fitness level in relation to AF and may help identify high-risk subgroups.

Can we define a tolerable level of risk in food allergy? Report from a EuroPrevall/UK Food Standards Agency workshop.

Science.gov (United States)

Madsen, C B; Hattersley, S; Allen, K J; Beyer, K; Chan, C-H; Godefroy, S B; Hodgson, R; Mills, E N C; Muñoz-Furlong, A; Schnadt, S; Ward, R; Wickman, M; Crevel, R

2012-01-01

There is an emerging consensus that, as with other risks in society, zero risk for food-allergic people is not a realistic or attainable option. Food allergy challenge data and new risk assessment methods offer the opportunity to develop quantitative limits for unintended allergenic ingredients which can be used in risk-based approaches. However, a prerequisite to their application is defining a tolerable level of risk. This requires a value judgement and is ultimately a 'societal' decision that has to involve all relevant stakeholders. The aim of the workshop was to bring together key representatives from the stakeholders (regulators, food industry, clinical researchers and patients), and for the first time ever discuss the definition of a tolerable level of risk with regard to allergic reactions to food. The discussions revealed a consensus that zero risk was not a realistic option and that it is essential to address the current lack of agreed action levels for cross-contamination with allergens if food allergen management practice is to be improved. The discussions also indicated that it was difficult to define and quantify a tolerable level of risk, although both the clinical and the industry groups tried to do so. A consensus emerged that doing nothing was not a viable option, and there was a strong desire to take action to improve the current situation. Two concrete actions were suggested: (1) Action levels should be derived from the data currently available. Different scenarios should be examined and further developed in an iterative process. On the basis of this work, a tolerable level of risk should be proposed. (2) 'One-dose' clinical trial with a low challenge dose should be performed in multiple centres to provide additional information about the general applicability of dose-distribution models and help validate the threshold levels derived. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thadani, A.C.

1997-01-01

This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

Risk of Debt-Based Financing in Indonesian Islamic Banking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kharisya Ayu Effendi

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to know the risk of debt-based financing in Islamic banking in Indonesia by using an accounting based calculation, those are NPF analysis, Credit risk Z-score and Altman Z-score. This study is telling about the risk of debt-based finacing on Indonesian Islamic banking using an accounting based measurement, those are NPF analysis, Credit Risk Z-score analysis and Altman Z-score analysis. The data was obtained from 2011 to 2015 from the website of each bank. The result is a risk on debt-based financing on Indonesian Islamic banking is low. The measurement using 3 accounting based measurement tool gives a consistent result, that is Indonesian Islamic banking use a debt-based financing have a high financial stability and a low risk.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.4821

14 CFR 91.861 - Base level.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Base level. 91.861 Section 91.861... level. (a) U.S. Operators. The base level of a U.S. operator is equal to the number of owned or leased... to paragraphs (a) (1) and (2). (1) The base level of a U.S. operator shall be increased by a number...

Visual privacy by context: proposal and evaluation of a level-based visualisation scheme.

Science.gov (United States)

Padilla-López, José Ramón; Chaaraoui, Alexandros Andre; Gu, Feng; Flórez-Revuelta, Francisco

2015-06-04

Privacy in image and video data has become an important subject since cameras are being installed in an increasing number of public and private spaces. Specifically, in assisted living, intelligent monitoring based on computer vision can allow one to provide risk detection and support services that increase people's autonomy at home. In the present work, a level-based visualisation scheme is proposed to provide visual privacy when human intervention is necessary, such as at telerehabilitation and safety assessment applications. Visualisation levels are dynamically selected based on the previously modelled context. In this way, different levels of protection can be provided, maintaining the necessary intelligibility required for the applications. Furthermore, a case study of a living room, where a top-view camera is installed, is presented. Finally, the performed survey-based evaluation indicates the degree of protection provided by the different visualisation models, as well as the personal privacy preferences and valuations of the users.

Establishment of Infrastructure for Domestic-Specific Level 3 PSA based on MACCS2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Seung-Cheol; Han, Seok-Jung; Choi, Sun-Yeong; Lee, Seung-Jun [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Wan-Seob [Korea Reliability Technology and System, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

Research activities related to the Level 3 PSA have naturally disappeared since the use of risk surrogates. Recently, Level 3 PSA was only performed to the extent of the purpose of operating license for the plant under construction. Since the Fukushima accident, concern about a comprehensive site-specific Level 3 PSA has been raised for some compelling reasons, especially the evaluation of the domestic multi-unit site risk effect including other site radiological sources (e.g., spent fuel pool, multi-units). Unfortunately, there are no domestic-specific consequence analysis code and input database required to perform a site-specific Level 3 PSA. The paper focuses on the development of the input data management system for domestic-specific Level 3 PSA based MACCS2 (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System). The authors call it KOSCA-MACCS2 (Korea Off-Site Consequence Analysis based in MACCS2). It serves as an integrated platform for a domestic-specific Level 3 PSA. Also, it provides the pre-processing modules to automatically generate MACCS2 input from diverse types of the domestic-specific data including numerical map data, e.g., meteorological data, numerical population map, digital land use map, economic statistics and so on. Note that some functions should be still developed and added on it, e.g., post-processing module to convert MACCS2 outputs to graphic report forms, and so on. Henceforth, it is necessary to develop a Korean-specific Level 3 PSA code as a substitution for the foreign software, MACCS2.

Microbial quality of reclaimed water for urban reuses: Probabilistic risk-based investigation and recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Chhipi-Shrestha, Gyan; Hewage, Kasun; Sadiq, Rehan

2017-01-15

Although Canada has abundant freshwater resources, many cities still experience seasonal water shortage. Supply-side and demand-side management is a core strategy to address this water shortage. Under this strategy, reclaimed water, which the Canadian public is willing to use for non-potable purposes, is an option. However, no universal guidelines exist for reclaimed water use. Despite the federal government's long-term goal to develop guidelines for many water reuse applications, guidelines have only been prescribed for reclaimed water use in toilet and urinal flushing in Canada. At the provincial level, British Columbia (BC) has promulgated guidelines for wide applications of reclaimed water but only at broad class levels. This research has investigated and proposed probabilistic risk-based recommended values for microbial quality of reclaimed water in various non-potable urban reuses. The health risk was estimated by using quantitative microbial risk assessment. Two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations were used in the analysis to include variability and uncertainty in input data. The proposed recommended values are based on the indicator organism E. coli. The required treatment levels for reuse were also estimated. In addition, the recommended values were successfully applied to three wastewater treatment effluents in the Okanagan Valley, BC, Canada. The health risks associated with other bacterial pathogens (Campylobacter jejuni and Salmonella spp.), virus (adenovirus, norovirus, and rotavirus), and protozoa (Cryptosporidium parvum and Giardia spp.), were also estimated. The estimated risks indicate the effectiveness of the E. coli-based water quality recommended values. Sensitivity analysis shows the pathogenic E. coli ratio and morbidity are the most sensitive input parameters for all water reuses. The proposed recommended values could be further improved by using national or regional data on water exposures, disease burden per case, and the susceptibility

Risk-based inspection--Development of guidelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-07-01

Effective inservice inspection programs can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. Most of the current inservice inspection programs for light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant components are based on experience and engineers' qualitative judgment. These programs include only an implicit consideration of risk, which combines the probability of failure of a component under its operation and loading conditions and the consequences of such failure, if it occurs. This document recommends appropriate methods for establishing a risk-based inspection program for LWR nuclear power plant components. The process has been built from a general methodology (Volume 1) and has been expanded to involve five major steps: defining the system; evaluating qualitative risk assessment results; using this and information from plant probabilistic risk assessments to perform a quantitative risk analysis; selecting target failure probabilities; and developing an inspection program for components using economic decision analysis and structural reliability assessment methods

A qualitative study on acceptable levels of risk for pregnant women in clinical research.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Zande, Indira S E; van der Graaf, Rieke; Oudijk, Martijn A; van Delden, Johannes J M

2017-05-15

There is ambiguity with regard to what counts as an acceptable level of risk in clinical research in pregnant women and there is no input from stakeholders relative to such research risks. The aim of our paper was to explore what stakeholders who are actively involved in the conduct of clinical research in pregnant women deem an acceptable level of risk for pregnant women in clinical research. Accordingly, we used the APOSTEL VI study, a low-risk obstetrical randomised controlled trial, as a case-study. We conducted a prospective qualitative study using 35 in-depth semi-structured interviews and one focus group. We interviewed healthcare professionals, Research Ethics Committee members (RECs) and regulators who are actively involved in the conduct of clinical research in pregnant women, in addition to pregnant women recruited for the APOSTEL VI case-study in the Netherlands. Three themes characterise the way stakeholders view risks in clinical research in pregnant women in general. Additionally, one theme characterises the way healthcare professionals and pregnant women view risks with respect to the case-study specifically. First, ideas on what constitutes an acceptable level of risk in general ranged from a preference for zero risk for the foetus up to minimal risk. Second, the desirability of clinical research in pregnant women in general was questioned altogether. Third, stakeholders proposed to establish an upper limit of risk in potentially beneficial clinical research in pregnant women in order to protect the foetus and the pregnant woman from harm. Fourth and finally, the case-study illustrates that healthcare professionals' individual perception of risk may influence recruitment. Healthcare professionals, RECs, regulators and pregnant women are all risk adverse in practice, possibly explaining the continuing underrepresentation of pregnant women in clinical research. Determining the acceptable levels of risk on a universal level alone is insufficient

Accounting for failure: risk-based regulation and the problems of ensuring healthcare quality in the NHS.

Science.gov (United States)

Beaussier, Anne-Laure; Demeritt, David; Griffiths, Alex; Rothstein, Henry

2016-05-18

In this paper, we examine why risk-based policy instruments have failed to improve the proportionality, effectiveness, and legitimacy of healthcare quality regulation in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Rather than trying to prevent all possible harms, risk-based approaches promise to rationalise and manage the inevitable limits of what regulation can hope to achieve by focusing regulatory standard-setting and enforcement activity on the highest priority risks, as determined through formal assessments of their probability and consequences. As such, risk-based approaches have been enthusiastically adopted by healthcare quality regulators over the last decade. However, by drawing on historical policy analysis and in-depth interviews with 15 high-level UK informants in 2013-2015, we identify a series of practical problems in using risk-based policy instruments for defining, assessing, and ensuring compliance with healthcare quality standards. Based on our analysis, we go on to consider why, despite a succession of failures, healthcare regulators remain committed to developing and using risk-based approaches. We conclude by identifying several preconditions for successful risk-based regulation: goals must be clear and trade-offs between them amenable to agreement; regulators must be able to reliably assess the probability and consequences of adverse outcomes; regulators must have a range of enforcement tools that can be deployed in proportion to risk; and there must be political tolerance for adverse outcomes.

A risk based approach for SSTO/TSTO comparisons

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, Joel S.

1996-03-01

An approach has been developed for performing early comparisons of transportation architectures explicitly taking into account quantitative measures of uncertainty and resulting risk. Risk considerations are necessary since the transportation systems are likely to have significantly different levels of risk, both because of differing degrees of freedom in achieving desired performance levels and their different states of development and utilization. The approach considers the uncertainty of achievement of technology goals, effect that the achieved technology level will have on transportation system performance and the relationship between system performance/capability and the ability to accommodate variations in payload mass. The consequences of system performance are developed in terms of nonrecurring, recurring, and the present value of transportation system life cycle costs.

Key outcomes from risk based assessment of pressure equipment in refineries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Firth, D.; Lichti, K.; Hill, T.; Thomas, C.; Widrig, J.; Simmonds, G.; Karstensen, A.

2012-01-01

Risk based assessment (RBA) has become the best industry practice for management of pressure equipment reliability. Application of RBA programs significantly reduces risk and gives opportunity to optimize inspection programs and produce long term financial benefits. Quest Integrity Group have implemented risk based inspection programs n a variety of industries including ammonia, methanol, geothermal power, :combined cycle power, gas turbines, gas production facilities and refineries. This paper outlines the semi quantitative RBA procedures that have been followed and lists some of the specific technical outcomes. Advanced inspection and life assessment methods used in support of RBI in refineries ire discussed. Piping in refineries is a key risk issue and it is not uncommon for piping failures to result in major incidents. Specific inspection programs are available to monitor differing damage processes such as flow assisted corrosion, hydrogen damage and corrosion under insulation. During assessment it s often found that numerous pipes have never been inspected especially underground smaller diameter pipes which are frequently considered to be un-piggable using conventional technologies and difficult to inspect. Advanced high accuracy flexible miniaturized ultrasonic intelligent pigging combined with fitness for service assessment such as Invista TM is recommended for inspection of critical pipelines which previously have been un-piggable. The processing of crude oil from a range of sources can result in significant variations in the levels of contaminants such as chlorides and sulfides. Major failures have occurred as a result of very rapid increases in corrosion rates in hydrotreating processes due to rapid changes in chemistry. The outcome of the assessment of plants that have potentially high and variable levels of contaminants often results in a review the process chemistry, how it is monitored and development of a detailed corrosion monitoring program. Fired

The Sydney playground project--levelling the playing field: a cluster trial of a primary school-based intervention aiming to promote manageable risk-taking in children with disability.

Science.gov (United States)

Bundy, Anita C; Wyver, Shirley; Beetham, Kassia S; Ragen, Jo; Naughton, Geraldine; Tranter, Paul; Norman, Richard; Villeneuve, Michelle; Spencer, Grace; Honey, Anne; Simpson, Judith; Baur, Louise; Sterman, Julia

2015-11-14

Providing children and adults with opportunities to engage in manageable risk taking may be a stepping stone toward closing the gap in life conditions currently experienced by young people with disabilities. We aim to demonstrate the effectiveness of a simple, innovative program for 1) changing the way parents and teachers view manageable risk-taking for children with disabilities and 2) increasing the level of responsibility that children take for their own actions, as seen on the school playground. We will employ a cluster repeated measures trial with six Sydney-area primary-school-based programs for children with disabilities. The intervention comprises two arms. 1) Risk-reframing--teachers and parents will participate together in small group intervention sessions focusing on the benefits of manageable risk-taking; 2) Introduction of play materials--materials without a defined purpose and facilitative of social cooperation will be introduced to the school playground for children to use at all break times. A control period will be undertaken first for two school terms, followed by two terms of the intervention period. Outcome measures will include playground observations, The Coping Inventory, qualitative field notes, and The Tolerance of Risk in Play Scale. New national programs, such as Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme, will place increasing demands on young people with disabilities to assume responsibility for difficult decisions regarding procuring services. Innovative approaches, commencing early in life, are required to prepare young people and their carers for this level of responsibility. This research offers innovative intervention strategies for promoting autonomy in children with disabilities and their carers. Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registration Number ACTRN12614000549628 (registered 22/5/2014).

Elevated serum pesticide levels and risk for Alzheimer disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Jason R; Roy, Ananya; Shalat, Stuart L; von Stein, Richard T; Hossain, Muhammad M; Buckley, Brian; Gearing, Marla; Levey, Allan I; German, Dwight C

2014-03-01

The causes of late-onset Alzheimer disease (AD) are not yet understood but likely include a combination of genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors. Limited epidemiological studies suggest that occupational pesticide exposures are associated with AD. Previously, we reported that serum levels of dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), the metabolite of the pesticide dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), were elevated in a small number of patients with AD (n=20). To evaluate the association between serum levels of DDE and AD and whether the apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype modifies the association. A case-control study consisting of existing samples from patients with AD and control participants from the Emory University Alzheimer's Disease Research Center and the University of Texas Southwestern Medical School's Alzheimer's Disease Center. Serum levels of DDE were measured in 79 control and 86 AD cases. Serum DDE levels, AD diagnosis, severity of AD measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination score, and interaction with APOE4 status. Levels of DDE were 3.8-fold higher in the serum of those with AD (mean [SEM], 2.64 [0.35] ng/mg cholesterol) when compared with control participants (mean [SEM], 0.69 [0.1] ng/mg cholesterol; P risk for AD (95% CI, 2.54-5.82; P risk for AD and carriers of an APOE4 ε4 allele may be more susceptible to the effects of DDE. Both DDT and DDE increase amyloid precursor protein levels, providing mechanistic plausibility for the association of DDE exposure with AD. Identifying people who have elevated levels of DDE and carry an APOE ε4 allele may lead to early identification of some cases of AD.

Prospectively measured triiodothyronine levels are positively associated with breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

Introduction The potential association between hypo- and hyperthyroid disorders and breast cancer has been investigated in a large number of studies during the last decades without conclusive results. This prospective cohort study investigated prediagnostic levels of thyrotropin (TSH) and triiodothyronine (T3) in relation to breast cancer incidence in pre- and postmenopausal women. Methods In the Malmö Preventive Project, 2,696 women had T3 and/or TSH levels measured at baseline. During a mean follow-up of 19.3 years, 173 incident breast cancer cases were retrieved using record linkage with The Swedish Cancer Registry. Quartile cut-points for T3 and TSH were based on the distribution among all women in the study cohort. A Cox's proportional hazards analysis was used to estimate relative risks (RR), with a confidence interval (CI) of 95%. Trends over quartiles of T3 and TSH were calculated considering a P-value < 0.05 as statistically significant. All analyses were repeated for pre- and peri/postmenopausal women separately. Results Overall there was a statistically significant association between T3 and breast cancer risk, the adjusted RR in the fourth quartile, as compared to the first, was 1.87 (1.12 to 3.14). In postmenopausal women the RRs for the second, third and fourth quartiles, as compared to the first, were 3.26 (0.96 to 11.1), 5.53 (1.65 to 18.6) and 6.87 (2.09 to 22.6), (P-trend: < 0.001). There were no such associations in pre-menopausal women, and no statistically significant interaction between T3 and menopausal status. Also, no statistically significant association was seen between serum TSH and breast cancer. Conclusions This is the first prospective study on T3 levels in relation to breast cancer risk. T3 levels in postmenopausal women were positively associated with the risk of breast cancer in a dose-response manner. PMID:20540734

Novel two-tiered approach of ecological risk assessment for pesticide mixtures based on joint effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Dayong; Mao, Haichen; Lv, Huichao; Zheng, Yong; Peng, Conghu; Hou, Shaogang

2018-02-01

Ecological risk assessments for mixtures have attracted considerable attention. In this study, 38 pesticides in the real environment were taken as objects and their toxicities to different organisms from three trophic levels were employed to assess the ecological risk of the mixture. The first tier assessment was based on the CA effect and the obtained sum of risk quotients (SRQ species-CA ) were 3.06-9.22. The second tier assessment was based on non-CA effects and the calculated SRQ species-TU are 5.37-9.29 using joint effects (TU sum ) as modified coefficients, which is higher than SRQ species-CA and indicates that ignoring joint effects might run the risk of underestimating the actual impact of pesticide mixtures. Due to the influences of synergistic and antagonistic effects, risk contribution of components to mixture risks based on non-CA effects are different from those based on the CA effect. Moreover, it was found that the top 8 dominating components explained 95.5%-99.8% of mixture risks in this study. The dominating components are similar in the two tiers for a given species. Accordingly, a novel two-tiered approach was proposed to assess the ecological risks of mixtures based on joint effects. This study provides new insights for ecological risk assessments with the consideration of joint effects of components in the pesticide mixtures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Daily total physical activity level and total cancer risk in men and women: results from a large-scale population-based cohort study in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, Manami; Yamamoto, Seiichiro; Kurahashi, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2008-08-15

The impact of total physical activity level on cancer risk has not been fully clarified, particularly in non-Western, relatively lean populations. The authors prospectively examined the association between daily total physical activity (using a metabolic equivalents/day score) and subsequent cancer risk in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. A total of 79,771 general-population Japanese men and women aged 45-74 years who responded to a questionnaire in 1995-1999 were followed for total cancer incidence (4,334 cases) through 2004. Compared with subjects in the lowest quartile, increased daily physical activity was associated with a significantly decreased risk of cancer in both sexes. In men, hazard ratios for the second, third, and highest quartiles were 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90, 1.11), 0.96 (95% CI: 0.86, 1.07), and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.96), respectively (p for trend = 0.005); in women, hazard ratios were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.05), 0.84 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.96), and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.97), respectively (p for trend = 0.007). The decreased risk was more clearly observed in women than in men, especially among the elderly and those who regularly engaged in leisure-time sports or physical exercise. By site, decreased risks were observed for cancers of the colon, liver, and pancreas in men and for cancer of the stomach in women. Increased daily physical activity may be beneficial in preventing cancer in a relatively lean population.

Levels and occupational health risk assessment of trace metals in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The levels of trace metals (Pb, Cu, Ni and Cd) were determined in soils from a major automobile repair workshop located in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. This was carried out to evaluate the potential occupational risk to operators working in and around the site. The mean of trace metal levels were: lead (14.52 mg/kg); ...

New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Sharma, Pavan K.; Santosh, T.V.; Hari Prasad, M.; Vaze, K.K.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Study looks into improving the consequence evaluation in risk based inspection. • Ways to revise the quantity factors used in qualitative approach. • New approach based on computational fluid dynamics along with probit mathematics. • Demonstrated this methodology along with a suitable case study for the said issue. - Abstract: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Consequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisation. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H 2 S based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the quantity of H 2 S released

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

1996-01-01

The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

2017-07-20

For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

Potential Occupational Exposures and Health Risks Associated with Biomass-Based Power Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Rohr, Annette C.; Campleman, Sharan L.; Long, Christopher M.; Peterson, Michael K.; Weatherstone, Susan; Quick, Will; Lewis, Ari

2015-01-01

Biomass is increasingly being used for power generation; however, assessment of potential occupational health and safety (OH&S) concerns related to usage of biomass fuels in combustion-based generation remains limited. We reviewed the available literature on known and potential OH&S issues associated with biomass-based fuel usage for electricity generation at the utility scale. We considered three potential exposure scenarios—pre-combustion exposure to material associated with the fuel, exposure to combustion products, and post-combustion exposure to ash and residues. Testing of dust, fungal and bacterial levels at two power stations was also undertaken. Results indicated that dust concentrations within biomass plants can be extremely variable, with peak levels in some areas exceeding occupational exposure limits for wood dust and general inhalable dust. Fungal spore types, identified as common environmental species, were higher than in outdoor air. Our review suggests that pre-combustion risks, including bioaerosols and biogenic organics, should be considered further. Combustion and post-combustion risks appear similar to current fossil-based combustion. In light of limited available information, additional studies at power plants utilizing a variety of technologies and biomass fuels are recommended. PMID:26206568

Potential Occupational Exposures and Health Risks Associated with Biomass-Based Power Generation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annette C. Rohr

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Biomass is increasingly being used for power generation; however, assessment of potential occupational health and safety (OH&S concerns related to usage of biomass fuels in combustion-based generation remains limited. We reviewed the available literature on known and potential OH&S issues associated with biomass-based fuel usage for electricity generation at the utility scale. We considered three potential exposure scenarios—pre-combustion exposure to material associated with the fuel, exposure to combustion products, and post-combustion exposure to ash and residues. Testing of dust, fungal and bacterial levels at two power stations was also undertaken. Results indicated that dust concentrations within biomass plants can be extremely variable, with peak levels in some areas exceeding occupational exposure limits for wood dust and general inhalable dust. Fungal spore types, identified as common environmental species, were higher than in outdoor air. Our review suggests that pre-combustion risks, including bioaerosols and biogenic organics, should be considered further. Combustion and post-combustion risks appear similar to current fossil-based combustion. In light of limited available information, additional studies at power plants utilizing a variety of technologies and biomass fuels are recommended.

Team based risk assessment in the South African mining industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turner, J.; Ashworth, G.; Webger, S.; Protheroe, B. [CSIR, Auckland Park (South Africa). MineRisk Africa Division

1996-12-31

Improved health and safety for the large mining workforce in South Africa is a priority. Risk Assessments will be mandatory following the promulgation of the new health and safety act, due out in mid 1996. There is also a strong demand for employee organizations for participation in regulating the work process, particularly in the aspects of health and safety. The concept of system safety is that safe production is achieved through four ingredients, being, competent and trained personnel working according to appropriate standard operating practices using fit-for-purpose equipment in a well-controlled environment. A deficiency in any one of these areas will lead to an increased chance of operating problems and consequently accidents. The Mine Risk processes for risk assessment and management provide a mechanism for adopting this concept in practical mining operations; they provide a framework for identifying the root cause of safety problems as a basis for defining changes which will contribute significantly towards improving safety. The Mine Risk processes are applied practively and systematically to identify hazards and evaluate the magnitude of the associated risk in a defined aspect of the mining operation using a participative team based approach. The team, whose membership consists of highly experienced personnel drawn from all relevant departments and from positions ranging from manager to operator, then determines practical controls to reduce priority risks to acceptable levels. Team building is a natural product of this process, and should lead to higher productivity levels which is also a cause for concern. By using this process, a number of objectives of all the stakeholders in the South African Mining industry are addressed. 3 tabs.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological Risk Based on Cloud Model: Taking Chengchao Iron Mine as Example

Science.gov (United States)

Ruan, Jinghua; Chen, Yong; Xiao, Xiao; Yong, Gan; Huang, Ranran; Miao, Zuohua

2018-01-01

Aimed at the fuzziness and randomness during the evaluation process, this paper constructed a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model. The evaluation index system was established based on the inherent risk, present level and control situation, which had been proved to be able to convey the main contradictions of ecological risk in mine on the macro level, and be advantageous for comparison among mines. The comment sets and membership functions improved by cloud model could reflect the uniformity of ambiguity and randomness effectively. In addition, the concept of fuzzy entropy was introduced to further characterize the fuzziness of assessments results and the complexities of ecological problems in target mine. A practical example in Chengchao Iron Mine evidenced that, the assessments results can reflect actual situations appropriately and provide a new theoretic guidance for comprehensive ecological risk evaluation of underground iron mine.

An inventory and risk-based prioritization of Steep Creek Fans in Alberta, Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Holm Kris

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In June 2013, heavy rainfall caused flooding on most rivers in the province of Alberta, Canada, producing one of Canada’s most expensive natural disasters with about $6 billion (CDN in damage. Flooding inundated several municipalities including downtown Calgary, the fourth-largest city in Canada. Debris flows and debris floods caused extensive highway closures and damages to development on alluvial fans. Following these events, the Government of Alberta requested an inventory of all fans intersecting municipal development, major roads and highways in Alberta. Such fans may be subject to debris flow, debris flood (mud flows, and/or flood hazards. The study area spans the entirety of the Alberta Rocky Mountains, approximately 51,000 km2 (7% of Alberta. We characterize 710 fans in terms of hazard level and presence and types of elements at risk. We statistically analyse watershed attributes to predict the dominant fan hydrogeomorphic process types. All fans under provincial jurisdiction are assigned priority ratings based on hazard levels and the presence and value of elements at risk. The prioritization is risk-based as it considers both hazards and potential consequences. Of the fans prioritized, 13% intersected parcels containing land and residential developments with an assessed value of $2.4 billion (CDN, and the remainder were crossed by roads, pipelines or transmission lines. We present the study results on an interactive, searchable web application that can support ongoing hazard and risk assessments and risk reduction planning.

Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cui Jia

2017-05-01

Full Text Available With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Jia; Hong, Bei; Jiang, Xuepeng; Chen, Qinghua

2017-05-01

With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

Salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase levels during an assessment procedure correlate differently with risk-taking measures in male and female police recruits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruud eVan Den Bos

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Recent laboratory studies have shown that men display more risk-taking behaviour in decision-making tasks following stress, whilst women are more risk-aversive or become more task-focussed. In addition, these studies have shown that sex differences are related to levels of the stress hormone cortisol (indicative of activation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical-axis: the higher the levels of cortisol the more risk-taking behaviour is shown by men, whereas women generally display more risk-aversive or task-focussed behaviour following higher levels of cortisol. Here, we assessed whether such relationships hold outside the laboratory, correlating levels of cortisol obtained during a job-related assessment procedure with decision-making parameters in the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT in male and female police recruits. The CGT allows for discriminating different aspects of reward-based decision-making. In addition, we correlated levels of alpha-amylase (indicative for activation of the sympatho-adrenomedullary-axis and decision-making parameters. In line with earlier studies men and women only differed in risk-adjustment in the CGT. Salivary cortisol levels correlated positively and strongly with risk-taking measures in men, which was significantly different from the weak negative correlation in women. In contrast, and less strongly so, salivary alpha-amylase levels correlated positively with risk-taking in women, which was significantly different from the weak negative correlation with risk-taking in men. Collectively, these data support and extend data of earlier studies indicating that risky decision-making in men and women is differently affected by stress hormones. The data are briefly discussed in relation to the effects of stress on gambling.

Association between Serum Osteopontin Levels and Cardiovascular Risk in Hypothyrodism

OpenAIRE

Türkan Mete; Gülhan Duman; Eda Melek Ertörer; Emre Bozkırlı; Okan Sefa Bakıner; Neslihan Başçıl Tütüncü

2016-01-01

Purpose: Cardiovascular effects of hypothyroidism are well known. Osteopontin (OPN) is a new inflammatory marker which was first isolated from the bone. Flow-mediated dilatation (FMD), a noninvasive technique to measure this endothelium-dependent function, has been used in several clinical studies to show cardiovascular risks. The aim of our study was to assess FMD value in hypothyroidism patients and to investigate whether plasma OPN level is a parameter which can predict cardiovascular risk...

TEACHING WRITING USING THINK-PAIR-SHARE VIEWED FROM STUDENTS’ LEVEL OF RISK-TAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ningtyas Orilina Argawati

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Writing is considered as the most difficult skill to master compared with the other skills because it involves many language elements such as content, organization, vocabulary, grammar and mechanics. The research examines the effect of two independent variables (Think-Pair-Share and Direct instruction method on dependent variable (Writing Descriptive skill. The samples were class A1 2016 as the experimental class and A3 2016 as the control class. Each class consisted of 32 students. The instruments used covered the risk-taking’s questionnaire and writing test. Before applying the questionnaire of risk-taking, it was tried out to class A2 2016 to find out the validity and the reliability of the instrument. Meanwhile, before conducting the writing test, it needs to test the readability of the writing instruction. The treatment was conducted in eight meetings, and the 9th meeting was allocated for the post-test. The data were then analyzed using ANOVA and Tukey test. From the analysis, it reveals that: (1 Think-Pair-Share is significantly different from direct instruction method to teach writing; (2 the students with high level of risk-taking have better writing than those with low level of risk-taking; and (3 there is an interaction between teaching methods and the students’ level of risk-taking. Even though Think-Pair-Share is effective to teach writing, teachers must consider about the students’ condition, in this case their level of risk-taking.

Risk Assessment of Nautical Navigational Environment Based on Grey Fixed Weight Cluster

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanfei Tian

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In order to set up a mathematical model suitable for nautical navigational environment risk evaluation and systematically master the navigational environment risk characteristics of the Qiongzhou Strait in a quantitative way, a risk assessment model with approach steps is set up based on the grey fixed weight cluster (GFWC. The evaluation index system is structured scientifically through both literature review and expert investigation. The relative weight of each index is designed to be obtained via fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP; Index membership degree of every grey class is proposed to be achieved by fuzzy statistics (FS to avoid the difficulty of building whiten weight functions. By using the model, nautical navigational environment risk of the Qiongzhou Strait is determined at a “moderate” level according to the principle of maximum membership degree. The comprehensive risk evaluation of the Qiongzhou Strait nautical navigational environment can provide theoretical reference for implementing targeted risk control measures. It shows that the constructed GFWC risk assessment model as well as the presented steps are workable in case of incomplete information. The proposed strategy can excavate the collected experts’ knowledge mathematically, quantify the weight of each index and risk level, and finally lead to a comprehensive risk evaluation result. Besides, the adoptions of probability and statistic theory, fuzzy theory, aiming at solving the bottlenecks in case of uncertainty, will give the model a better adaptability and executability.

Risk-Based Two-Stage Stochastic Optimization Problem of Micro-Grid Operation with Renewables and Incentive-Based Demand Response Programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pouria Sheikhahmadi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The operation problem of a micro-grid (MG in grid-connected mode is an optimization one in which the main objective of the MG operator (MGO is to minimize the operation cost with optimal scheduling of resources and optimal trading energy with the main grid. The MGO can use incentive-based demand response programs (DRPs to pay an incentive to the consumers to change their demands in the peak hours. Moreover, the MGO forecasts the output power of renewable energy resources (RERs and models their uncertainties in its problem. In this paper, the operation problem of an MGO is modeled as a risk-based two-stage stochastic optimization problem. To model the uncertainties of RERs, two-stage stochastic programming is considered and conditional value at risk (CVaR index is used to manage the MGO’s risk-level. Moreover, the non-linear economic models of incentive-based DRPs are used by the MGO to change the peak load. The numerical studies are done to investigate the effect of incentive-based DRPs on the operation problem of the MGO. Moreover, to show the effect of the risk-averse parameter on MGO decisions, a sensitivity analysis is carried out.

Risk-based performance indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

1987-01-01

The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

Elevated Serum Pesticide Levels and Risk for Alzheimer Disease

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Jason R.; Roy, Ananya; Shalat, Stuart L.; von Stein, Richard T.; Hossain, Muhammad M.; Buckley, Brian; Gearing, Marla; Levey, Allan I.; German, Dwight C.

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE The causes of late-onset Alzheimer disease (AD) are not yet understood but likely include a combination of genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors. Limited epidemiological studies suggest that occupational pesticide exposures are associated with AD. Previously, we reported that serum levels of dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), the metabolite of the pesticide dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), were elevated in a small number of patients with AD (n=20). OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between serum levels of DDE and AD and whether the apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype modifies the association. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A case-control study consisting of existing samples from patients with AD and control participants from the Emory University Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center and the University of Texas Southwestern Medical School’s Alzheimer’s Disease Center. Serum levels of DDE were measured in 79 control and 86 AD cases. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Serum DDE levels, AD diagnosis, severity of AD measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination score, and interaction with APOE4 status. RESULTS Levels of DDE were 3.8-fold higher in the serum of those with AD (mean [SEM], 2.64 [0.35] ng/mg cholesterol) when compared with control participants (mean [SEM], 0.69 [0.1] ng/mg cholesterol; P risk for AD (95% CI, 2.54–5.82; P risk for AD and carriers of an APOE4 ε4 allele may be more susceptible to the effects of DDE. Both DDT and DDE increase amyloid precursor protein levels, providing mechanistic plausibility for the association of DDE exposure with AD. Identifying people who have elevated levels of DDE and carry an APOE ε4 allele may lead to early identification of some cases of AD. PMID:24473795

Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

2009-03-01

This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

1991-01-01

A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Survey on the Technology Readiness Level of R and D projects for a Technical Risk Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, S. J.; Chang, J.; Lee, K. Y.

2008-01-01

The purpose of applying the Technology Readiness Level/Design Readiness Level (TRL/DRL) in technical risk management is to make technology assessments, and improve communication among researchers with a consistent, systematic technology readiness Technical risk management for the Nuclear Hydrogen Production project was adopted of experience assessed with Delphi Method from the Next Generation Nuclear Plant(NGNP)of the DOE to improve the poor contactor management of the major projects which experienced cost increases and/or schedule delays in long-term. In the current phase that is doing key technology research and development projects, the technology readiness level was reviewed and applied to the Nuclear Hydrogen Production project to prepare an input for the next design phases. Based on the previous works, pre-conceptional design and key R and D works for the Nuclear Hydrogen Design and Development(NHDD) projects and the results of key research and development projects, the TRL was applied to assess the levels and compared with the advanced design stages of Westinghouse Electric Co. With this process, several issues were identified to apply the design and technology level to the familiar steps of design process and research and development projects. In order to resolve these issues, it is needed to systematically adjust and modify the current process with TRLs

Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michalopoulos Evangelos

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

Community Level Risk Factors for Maternal Mortality in Madagascar

African Journals Online (AJOL)

AJRH Managing Editor

This paper explores the effect of risk and socioeconomic factors on maternal mortality at the ... to study maternal mortality, however, studying maternal mortality at the community ... causes of maternal mortality at the country level in ... Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, .... cyclones, and crime can be associated with.

Genetically elevated fetuin-A levels, fasting glucose levels, and risk of type 2 diabetes: the cardiovascular health study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Majken K; Bartz, Traci M; Djoussé, Luc; Kizer, Jorge R; Zieman, Susan J; Rimm, Eric B; Siscovick, David S; Psaty, Bruce M; Ix, Joachim H; Mukamal, Kenneth J

2013-10-01

Fetuin-A levels are associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes, but it is unknown if the association is causal. We investigated common (>5%) genetic variants in the fetuin-A gene (AHSG) fetuin-A levels, fasting glucose, and risk of type 2 diabetes. Genetic variation, fetuin-A levels, and fasting glucose were assessed in 2,893 Caucasian and 542 African American community-living individuals 65 years of age or older in 1992-1993. Common AHSG variants (rs4917 and rs2248690) were strongly associated with fetuin-A concentrations (Pfasting glucose concentrations (1.9 mg/dL [95% CI, 1.2-2.7] higher per SD in Caucasians), but Mendelian randomization analyses using both SNPs as unbiased proxies for measured fetuin-A did not support an association between genetically predicted fetuin-A levels and fasting glucose (-0.3 mg/dL [95% CI, -1.9 to 1.3] lower per SD in Caucasians). The difference between the associations of fasting glucose with actual and genetically predicted fetuin-A level was statistically significant (P=0.001). Results among the smaller sample of African Americans trended in similar directions but were statistically insignificant. Common variants in the AHSG gene are strongly associated with plasma fetuin-A concentrations, but not with risk of type 2 diabetes or glucose concentrations, raising the possibility that the association between fetuin-A and type 2 diabetes may not be causal.

Risk factors for child abuse: levels of knowledge and difficulties in family medicine. A mixed method study.

Science.gov (United States)

Regnaut, Océane; Jeu-Steenhouwer, Marie; Manaouil, Cécile; Gignon, Maxime

2015-10-30

Family physicians (FPs) have a central role in the detection and management of child abuse. According to the literature, only 2-5% of initial reports of child abuse come from the medical profession. The objective of this study was to assess levels of knowledge of risk factors for child abuse by Family Physicians (FPs) and the attention that the physicians pay to these risk factors. We conducted a mixed-method survey based on semi-structured interviews. 50 FPs practicing in the Somme County (northern France) were interviewed with closed and open questions. The FPs' level of knowledge of risk factors for child abuse and obstacles in the detection of child abuse were assessed. The FPs' level of knowledge of risk factors for child abuse was similar to that reported in the literature. However, FPs knew little about the significant role of prematurity. Likewise, the FP's training did not seem to influence their knowledge of risk factors. Fear of an incorrect diagnosis was the main obstacle to reporting a suspected case. The FPs considered that they were often alone in dealing with a difficult situation and considered that the judicial system and the social services were not sufficiently active. Few FPs had actually received specific training in the detection and management of child abuse but many stated their need for this type of training. FPs encounter many obstacles in the detection of child abuse, which sometimes make the FP reluctant to report a suspected or potential case. Medical education need to be improved in this field.

Risk-seeking for losses is associated with 5-HTTLPR, but not with transient changes in 5-HT levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Neukam, Philipp T; Kroemer, Nils B; Deza Araujo, Yacila I; Hellrung, Lydia; Pooseh, Shakoor; Rietschel, Marcella; Witt, Stephanie H; Schwarzenbolz, Uwe; Henle, Thomas; Smolka, Michael N

2018-05-05

Serotonin (5-HT) plays a key role in different aspects of value-based decision-making. A recent framework proposed that tonic 5-HT (together with dopamine, DA) codes future average reward expectations, providing a baseline against which possible choice outcomes are compared to guide decision-making. To test whether high 5-HT levels decrease loss aversion, risk-seeking for gains, and risk-seeking for losses. In a first session, 611 participants were genotyped for 5-HTTLPR and performed a mixed gambles (MGA) task and two probability discounting tasks for gains and losses, respectively (PDG/PDL). Afterwards, a subsample of 105 participants (44 with S/S, 6 with S/L, 55 with L/L genotype) completed the pharmacological study using a crossover design with tryptophan depletion (ATD), loading (ATL), and balanced (BAL) conditions. The same decision constructs were assessed. We found increased risk-seeking for losses in S/S compared to L/L individuals at the first visit (p = 0.002). Neither tryptophan depletion nor loading affected decision-making, nor did we observe an interaction between intervention and 5-HTTLPR genotype. Our data do not support the idea that transient changes of tonic 5-HT affect value-based decision-making. We provide evidence for an association of 5-HTTLPR with risk-seeking for losses, independent of acute 5-HT levels. This indicates that the association of 5-HTTLPR and risk-seeking for losses is mediated via other mechanisms, possibly by differences in the structural development of neural circuits of the 5-HT system during early life phases.

RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.

2010-01-01

Today, companies are required to be in control of the security of their IT assets. This is especially challenging in the presence of limited budgets and conflicting requirements. Here, we present Risk-Based Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (RiskREP), a method for managing IT security

Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

Science.gov (United States)

Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

2014-10-15

The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Awareness of risk factors for cancer among Omani adults--a community based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Azri, Mohammed; Al-Rasbi, Khadija; Al-Hinai, Mustafa; Davidson, Robin; Al-Maniri, Abdullah

2014-01-01

Cancer is the leading cause of mortality around the world. However, the majority of cancers occur as a result of modifiable risk factors; hence public awareness of cancer risk factors is crucial to reduce the incidence. The objective of this study was to identify the level of public awareness of cancer risk factors among the adult Omani population. A community based survey using the Cancer Awareness Measure (CAM) questionnaire was conducted in three areas of Oman to measure public awareness of cancer risk factors. Omani adults aged 18 years and above were invited to participate in the study. SPPSS (ver.20) was used to analyse the data. A total of 384 participated from 500 invited individuals (response rate =77%). The majority of respondents agreed that smoking cigarettes (320, 83.3%), passive smoking (279, 72.7%) and excessive drinking of alcohol (265, 69%) are risks factors for cancer. However, fewer respondents agreed that eating less fruit and vegetables (83, 21.6%), eating more red or processed meat (116, 30.2%), being overweight (BMI>25) (123, 32%), doing less physical exercise (119, 31%), being over 70 years old (72, 18.8%), having a close relative with cancer (134, 34.9%), infection with human papilloma virus (HPV) (117, 30.5%) and getting frequent sunburn during childhood (149, 38.8%) are risk factors for cancer. A significant association was found between participant responses and their educational level. The higher the educational level, the more likely that respondents identified cancer risk factors including smoking (paware of the common risk factors for cancer. It may be possible to reduce the incidence of cancers in Oman by developing strategies to educate the public about these risk factors.

A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

Science.gov (United States)

Thrush, M A; Pearce, F M; Gubbins, M J; Oidtmann, B C; Peeler, E J

2017-08-01

The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. © 2016 Crown copyright.

Methyldibromo glutaronitrile: clinical experience and exposure-based risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Zachariae, Claus; Rastogi, Suresh; Devantier, Charlotte; Menné, Torkil; Johansen, Jeanne Duus

2003-03-01

In the year 2000, the level of methyldibromo glutaronitrile (MDGN) allergy in dermatology clinics in Europe exceeded the level of allergies to all other preservatives, with a prevalence of 3.5%. In the present study, cases of primary sensitization and elicitation to MDGN due to cosmetic products were collected over an 8-month period at the Department of Dermatology, Gentofte University Hospital. The aim was to identify the products related to hand eczema, assess exposure to MDGN in these products and relate the findings to results from a newly developed updated risk assessment model for contact allergy. Out of 24 patients with a positive patch test to MDGN, 17 patients with hand eczema were identified. In 11 of these patients, cosmetic products used in relation to the onset of the disease were shown to contain MDGN (65%). In 8 of these 11 cases, primary sensitization was probable, 5 due to hand/body lotions and 3 due to lotions and/or liquid hand soap. Chemical analysis of 12 products showed that lotions contained 149-390 ppm of MDGN, liquid hand soap 144-399 ppm, a rinsing cream 293 ppm and shampoos 78-79 ppm. The shampoo exposure was not of certain relevance to the eczema. Applying the newly developed updated risk assessment model showed that the concentrations of MDGN in lotions of 149-390 ppm exceeded the calculated maximum acceptable exposure level for MDGN, which would be expected to lead to sensitization in consumers using such products, as seen in the current study. The present cases and updated exposure-based risk assessment process add to the evidence and need for re-defining safe-use concentrations of MDGN in cosmetic products.