Risk Assessment and Clinical Risk Management for Young Antisocial Children: The Forgotten Group

OpenAIRE

Augimeri, Leena; Child Development Institute; Walsh, Margaret; Child Development Institute; Woods, Sarah; Child Development Institute; Jiang, Depeng; University of Manitoba

2012-01-01

Centre for Children Committing Offences (CCCO), at Child Development Institute (CDI) in Toronto, Canada, developed Early Assessment Risk Lists (EARL-20B for boys; EARL-21G for girls), for young children at-risk for future criminality. In this first EARL prospective longitudinal study, 573 boys and 294 girls who participated in SNAP®, a gender-specific evidencebased model for at-risk children (6-11 years), 8.2% of boys and 3.1% of girls had registered criminal offences at follow up (mean age 1...

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

ABO blood group and risk of cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vasan, Senthil K; Hwang, Jinseub; Rostgaard, Klaus

2016-01-01

groups and site-specific cancer risk in a large cohort of healthy blood donors from Sweden and Denmark. RESULTS: A total of 1.6 million donors were followed over 27 million person-years (20 million in Sweden and 7 million in Denmark). We observed 119,584 cancer cases. Blood groups A, AB and B were......INTRODUCTION: The associations between ABO blood group and cancer risk have been studied repeatedly, but results have been variable. Consistent associations have only been reported for pancreatic and gastric cancers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We estimated associations between different ABO blood...... associated either with increased or decreased risk of cancer at 13 anatomical sites (p≤0.05), compared to blood group O. Consistent with assessment using a false discovery rate approach, significant associations with ABO blood group were observed for cancer of the pancreas, breast, and upper gastrointestinal...

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

Development of a cumulative risk assessment for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory's waste area group 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burns, D.E.

1995-01-01

In 1989, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) was added to the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) National Priorities List of Superfund sites. A Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFA/CO) for the INEL was signed by the Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID), EPA, and the State of Idaho in December 1991. The goal of this agreement is to ensure that potential or actual INEL releases of hazardous substances to the environment are thoroughly investigated in accordance with the National Contingency Plan (NCP) and that appropriate response actions are taken as necessary to protect human health and the environment. The Test Reactor Area (TRA) is included as Waste Area Group (WAG) 2 of ten INEL WAGs identified in the FFA/CO. WAG 2 consists of 13 operable units (OUs) which include pits, tanks, rubble piles, ponds, cooling towers, wells, french drains, perched water and spill areas. OU 2-13 is the Comprehensive Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) for WAG 2. The study presented here is a preliminary evaluation of the comprehensive risk for WAG-2. This investigation will be used as the basis of the WAG-2 comprehensive baseline risk assessment (BRA), and it will serve as a model for other INEL comprehensive risk assessments. The WAG-2 preliminary risk evaluation consisted of two broad phases. These phases were (1) a site and contaminant screening that was intended to support the identification of COPCs and risk assessment data gaps, and (2) an exposure pathway analysis that evaluated the comprehensive human health risks associated with WAG-2. The primary purposes of the investigation were to screen WAG-2 release sites and contaminants, and to identify risk assessment data gaps, so the investigation will be referred to as the WAG-2 Screening and Data Gap Analysis (SDGA) for the remainder of this report

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

A comparative analysis of cardiovascular disease risk profiles of five Pacific ethnic groups assessed in New Zealand primary care practice: PREDICT CVD-13.

Science.gov (United States)

Grey, Corina; Wells, Sue; Riddell, Tania; Pylypchuk, Romana; Marshall, Roger; Drury, Paul; Elley, Raina; Ameratunga, Shanthi; Gentles, Dudley; Erick-Peletiy, Stephanie; Bell, Fionna; Kerr, Andrew; Jackson, Rod

2010-11-05

Data on the cardiovascular disease risk profiles of Pacific peoples in New Zealand is usually aggregated and treated as a single entity. Little is known about the comparability or otherwise of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk between different Pacific groups. To compare CVD risk profiles for the main Pacific ethnic groups assessed in New Zealand primary care practice to determine if it is reasonable to aggregate these data, or if significant differences exist. A web-based clinical decision support system for CVD risk assessment and management (PREDICT) has been implemented in primary care practices in nine PHOs throughout Auckland and Northland since 2002, covering approximately 65% of the population of these regions. Between 2002 and January 2009, baseline CVD risk assessments were carried out on 11,642 patients aged 35-74 years identifying with one or more Pacific ethnic groups (4933 Samoans, 1724 Tongans, 1366 Cook Island Maori, 880 Niueans, 1341 Fijians and 1398 people identified as Other Pacific or Pacific Not Further Defined). Fijians were subsequently excluded from the analyses because of a probable misclassification error that appears to combine Fijian Indians with ethnic Fijians. Prevalences of smoking, diabetes and prior history of CVD, as well as mean total cholesterol/HDL ratio, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and Framingham 5-year CVD risk were calculated for each Pacific group. Age-adjusted risk ratios and mean differences stratified by gender were calculated using Samoans as the reference group. Cook Island women were almost 60% more likely to smoke than Samoan women. While Tongan men had the highest proportion of smoking (29%) among Pacific men, Tongan women had the lowest smoking proportion (10%) among Pacific women. Tongan women and Niuean men and women had a higher burden of diabetes than other Pacific ethnic groups, which were 20-30% higher than their Samoan counterparts. Niuean men and women had lower blood pressure levels than all

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Risk factor scenario in an industrial set-up: Need for an effective screening tool to assess the high-risk group

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iyer Uma

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Industrial and technological revolution has resulted in nutrition transition. This calls for analyzing the risk factor scenario in the industrial population. Objective: The objective was to map the prevalence and assess the risk factors of industrial employees. Materials and Methods: The employees of a large petrochemical industry were enrolled (N=269 for the study. Risk factors were elicited through a structured questionnaire. Parameters monitored were fasting blood sugar and lipid profile. Relative risk was calculated to find out significant predictor variables. Results: The employees had high prevalence of overweight (27%, obesity (22%, central obesity (48.7%, prehypertension (43.2%, hypertension (36.6%, and dyslipidemia (41.4%. They had erroneous dietary habits such as low intake of fruits and vegetables and high fat intake. Most of the employees had low physical activity levels. The prevalence of smoking (13.5%, tobacco (28.2%, and alcohol use (22.2% were also high with 15.1% having multiple habits. One-fifth of the employees had metabolic syndrome (MS. Seven predictor variables, namely, family history, BMI, WHR, blood pressure, physical inactivity, TG, and TG/H were identified and used to develop the risk score card to identify people at high risk of CVD and DM. Conclusion: Multiple risk factor scenario among the industrial population studied calls for effective intervention strategies and policy changes to combat the burden of non-communicable diseases. The risk score card can be used to screen the high-risk group in the industrial population.

The results of an ecological risk assessment screening at the Idaho National Engineering's waste area group 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

VanHorn, R.

1995-01-01

The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) is a Department of Energy (DOE) facility located in southeastern Idaho and occupies approximately 890 square miles on the northwestern portion of the eastern Snake River Plain. INEL has been devoted to nuclear energy research and related activities since its establishment in 1949. In the process of fulfilling this mission, wastes were generated, including radioactive and hazardous materials. Most materials were effectively stored or disposed of, however, some release of contaminants to the environment has occurred. For this reason, the INEL was listed by the US environmental Protection Agency on the National Priorities List (NPL), in November, 1989. This report describes the results of an ecological risk assessment performed for the Waste Area Groups 2 (WAG 2) at the INEL. It also summarizes the performance of screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERA)

Gambling Risk Groups are Not All the Same: Risk Factors Amongst Sports Bettors.

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, Alex M T; Hing, Nerilee; Li, En; Vitartas, Peter

2018-03-20

Sports betting is increasing worldwide, with an associated increase in sports betting-related problems. Previous studies have examined risk factors for problem gambling amongst sports bettors and have identified demographic, behavioural, marketing, normative and impulsiveness factors. These studies have generally compared those in problem gambling, or a combination of moderate risk and problem gambling, groups to non-problem gamblers, often due to statistical power issues. However, recent evidence suggests that, at a population level, the bulk of gambling-related harm stems from low risk and moderate risk gamblers, rather than problem gamblers. Thus it is essential to understand the risk factors for each level of gambling-related problems (low risk, moderate risk, problem) separately. The present study used a large sample (N = 1813) to compare each gambling risk group to non-problem gamblers, first using bivariate and then multivariate statistical techniques. A range of demographic, behavioural, marketing, normative and impulsiveness variables were included as possible risk factors. The results indicated that some variables, such as gambling expenditure, number of accounts with different operators, number of different types of promotions used and impulsiveness were significantly higher for all risk groups, while others such as some normative factors, age, gender and particular sports betting variables only applied to those with the highest level of gambling-related problems. The results generally supported findings from previous literature for problem gamblers, and extended these findings to low risk and moderate risk groups. In the future, where statistical power allows, risk factors should be assessed separately for all levels of gambling problems.

Coronary heart disease risk assessment and characterization of coronary artery disease using coronary CT angiography: comparison of asymptomatic and symptomatic groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, Y.; Kim, Y.; Chung, I.-M.; Ryu, J.; Park, H.

2010-01-01

Aim: To evaluate the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) in relation to risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and assess plaque characteristics from coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography in asymptomatic and symptomatic patients. Materials and methods: Three hundred and ninety consecutive patients [asymptomatic group, n = 138; symptomatic group (atypical or non-anginal chest pain), n = 252] were retrospectively enrolled. They were subsequently classified into three CHD risk categories, based on the National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines, and 10 year risks of coronary events were calculated using Framingham risk score. CT was evaluated for stenosis, plaque composition, and coronary calcium scores. Results: CAD was observed in 42% of the asymptomatic group and 62% of the symptomatic group. In the former, the prevalence of CAD in low-, moderate- and high-risk subgroups was 21.4, 47.4 and 65%, respectively, and was 33.3, 74.4, and 72.4% in the symptomatic group. Framingham 10-year risks of coronary events were significantly higher in patients with CAD than in normal participants, and receiver operating characteristics curves showed that discriminatory power was poor in the asymptomatic group and symptomatic men, and good in symptomatic women. Of the participants in the asymptomatic group, 12% exhibited only non-calcified plaques and of the symptomatic group, 7% exhibited only non-calcified plaques. The coronary calcium score was significantly higher for significant stenosis than for non-significant stenosis in both groups. Conclusions: The prevalence of CAD was not negligible even in subgroups with low-to-moderate CHD risk. Additionally, the Framingham risk score was effective for predicting CAD only in symptomatic women. Coronary calcium scores correlated with significant stenosis; however, a sizeable percentage of both groups had only non-calcified plaques.

Resource handbook on transport risk assessment (invited paper)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; Luna, R.; Weiner, R.; Yoshimura, R.; Detrick, C.; Dunn, T.; Maheras, S.; Bhatnager, S.; Kapoor, A.K.

2003-01-01

The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program established the DOE Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group (TRAWG) to develop the Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment, published in July 2002. The working group is comprised of technical experts representing DOE national laboratories, the DOE Naval Reactors Program, and DOE contractors. The motivation behind preparing this handbook was to document and disseminate lessons learned and information accumulated from more than 20 years of experience by DOE and its contractors in preparing transport risk assessments that address the shipment of virtually all types of radioactive materials and wastes. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information on conducting transport risk assessments for shipments of radioactive materials or wastes under both normal and accident conditions. The paper provides an overview of the information contained in the handbook. It should be recognised that development of radioactive materials transport risk assessment is an ongoing process, and that the analysis methods are regularly improved. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment appears on the Web at www.ntp.doe.gov/transrisk_handbook.pdf. (author)

Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiu-ying LONG

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

The evolution of violence risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2014-10-01

Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

Remedial investigation report on Waste Area Grouping 5 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Volume 4: Appendix C, Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-03-01

Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 5 is part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and is located on the United States Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation (DOE-ORR). The site lies southeast of Haw Ridge in Melton Valley and comprises approximately 32 ha (80 ac) [12 ha (30 ac) of forested area and the balance in grassed fields]. The western and southern boundaries of WAG are contiguous with the WAG 2 area which includes White Oak Creek and Melton Branch and associated floodplains. Waste Area Grouping 5 consists of several contaminant source areas for the disposal of low-level radioactive, transuranic (TRU), and fissile wastes (1959 to 1973) as well as inorganic and organic chemical wastes. Wastes were buried in trenches and auger holes. Radionuclides from buried wastes are being transported by shallow groundwater to Melton Branch and White Oak Creek. Different chemicals of potential concern (COPCS) were identified (e.g., cesium-137, strontium-90, radium-226, thorium-228, etc.); other constituents and chemicals, such as vinyl chloride, bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate, trichloroethene, were also identified as COPCS. Based on the results of this assessment contaminants of concern (COCS) were subsequently identified. The human health risk assessment methodology used in this risk assessment is based on Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) (EPA 1989). First, the data for the different media are evaluated to determine usability for risk assessment. Second, through the process of selecting COPCS, contaminants to be considered in the BHHRA are identified for each media, and the representative concentrations for these contaminants are determined. Third, an assessment of exposure potential is performed, and exposure pathways are identified. Subsequently, exposure is estimated quantitatively, and the toxicity of each of the COPCs is determined. The results of the exposure and toxicity assessments are combined and summarized in the risk characterization section

Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, M.M.

2007-01-01

Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

The results of an ecological risk assessment screening at the Idaho National Engineering`s waste area group 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

VanHorn, R.

1995-11-01

The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) is a Department of Energy (DOE) facility located in southeastern Idaho and occupies approximately 890 square miles on the northwestern portion of the eastern Snake River Plain. INEL has been devoted to nuclear energy research and related activities since its establishment in 1949. In the process of fulfilling this mission, wastes were generated, including radioactive and hazardous materials. Most materials were effectively stored or disposed of, however, some release of contaminants to the environment has occurred. For this reason, the INEL was listed by the US environmental Protection Agency on the National Priorities List (NPL), in November, 1989. This report describes the results of an ecological risk assessment performed for the Waste Area Groups 2 (WAG 2) at the INEL. It also summarizes the performance of screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERA).

Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

OpenAIRE

Lefebvre, Nicolas

2007-01-01

This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

Science.gov (United States)

Tsabadze, Teimuraz

2017-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Assessment of risk from radiation sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

1976-01-01

Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

1984-01-01

Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

2017-07-01

OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Risk assessment does not explain high prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus in a large group of Sardinian women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zedda Pierina

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A very high prevalence (22.3% of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM was recently reported following our study on a large group of Sardinian women. In order to explain such a high prevalence we sought to characterise our obstetric population through the analysis of risk factors and their association with the development of GDM. Methods The prevalence of risk factors and their association with the development of GDM were evaluated in 1103 pregnancies (247 GDM and 856 control women. The association of risk factors with GDM was calculated according to logistic regression. Sensitivity and specificity of risk assessment strategy were also calculated. Results None of the risk factors evaluated showed an elevated frequency in our population. The high risk patients were 231 (20.9%. Factors with a stronger association with GDM development were obesity (OR 3.7, 95% CI 2.08–6.8, prior GDM (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.69–5.69, and family history of Type 2 diabetes (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.81–3.86. Only patients over 35 years of age were more represented in the GDM group (38.2% vs 22.6% in the non-GDM cases, P P Conclusion Such a high prevalence of GDM in our population does not seem to be related to the abnormal presence of some known risk factors, and appears in contrast with the prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in Sardinia. Further studies are needed to explain the cause such a high prevalence of GDM in Sardinia. The "average risk" definition is not adequate to predict GDM in our population.

Caries risk assessment in young adults

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

Combining social and genetic networks to study HIV transmission in mixing risk groups

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zarrabi, N.; Prosperi, M.C.F.; Belleman, R.G.; Di Giambenedetto, S.; Fabbiani, M.; De Luca, A.; Sloot, P.M.A.

2013-01-01

Reconstruction of HIV transmission networks is important for understanding and preventing the spread of the virus and drug resistant variants. Mixing risk groups is important in network analysis of HIV in order to assess the role of transmission between risk groups in the HIV epidemic. Most of the

A survey of ecological risk assessment at DOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnthouse, L.W.; Bascietto, J.; Joseph, T.; Bilyard, G.

1992-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Risk-Based Standards Working Group is studying standard-setting and remedial action based on realistic estimates of human health and ecological risks. Federal and state regulations require DOE to assess ecological risks due to present and past operation of DOE facilities and ecological damage caused by remedial actions. Unfortunately, little technical guidance has been provided by regulatory agencies about how these assessments should be performed or what constitutes an adequate assessment. Active ecological research, environmental characterization, and ecological risk assessment programs are already underway at many locations. Some of these programs were established more than 30 years ago. Because of the strength of its existing programs and the depth of expertise available within the DOE complex, the agency is in a position to lead in developing ecological risk assessment procedures that are fully consistent with the general principles defined by EPA and that will ensure environmentally sound and cost-effective restoration of its sites. As a prelude to guidance development, the working group conducted a survey of ecological risk assessment activities at a subset of major DOE facilities. The survey was intended to (1) identify approaches now being used in ecological risk assessments performed by DOE staff and contractors at each site, (2) record successes and failures of these approaches, (3) identify new technical developments with potential for general application to many DOE facilities, and (4) identify major data needs, data resources, and methodological deficiencies

Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saeed Asefzadeh

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

2013-10-01

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2015-04-01

Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

Analysis of dysphagia risk using the modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly.

Science.gov (United States)

Byeon, Haewon

2016-09-01

[Purpose] The elderly are susceptible to dysphagia, and complications can be minimized if high-risk groups are screened in early stages and properly rehabilitated. This study provides basic material for the early detection and prevention of dysphagia by investigating the risks of dysphagia and related factors in community-dwelling elders. [Subjects and Methods] Participants included 325 community-dwelling elderly people aged 65 or older. The modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly was used to assess dysphagia risk. [Results] Approximately 52.6% (n=171) of participants belonged to the high-risk group for dysphagia. After adjusting for confounding variables, people aged 75+, who used dentures, and who needed partial help in daily living had a significantly higher risk of dysphagia. [Conclusion] It is necessary to develop guidelines for dysphagia for early detection and rehabilitation.

A Group Intervention for HIV/STI Risk Reduction among Indian Couples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ritu Nehra

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Background: HIV in India is transmitted primarily by heterosexual contact. The present study sought to test the feasibility of a group HIV/STI risk reduction intervention among heterosexual couples in India. Methods: Focus groups and key informant interviews were used in 2008 to culturally tailor the intervention. Thirty sexually active and HIV/STI negative couples were enrolled and assessed regarding risk behavior and sexual barrier acceptability. Gender-concordant group sessions used cognitive behavioral strategies for HIV/STI prevention. Results: At baseline, male condom use was low (36%; no participants reported use of female condoms or vaginal gels. HIV knowledge was low; women had more HIV knowledge and more positive attitudes towards condom use than men. Post-intervention, willingness to use all barrier products (t = 10.0, P< .001 and intentions to avoid risk behavior increased (t = 5.62, P< .001. Conclusion: This study illustrates the feasibility of utilizing a group intervention to enhance HIV/STI risk reduction among Indian couples.

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Assessment of the implementation risks for ALFRED demonstrator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Constantin, M.; Diaconu, D.

2016-01-01

The risks related to the implementation of ALFRED demonstrator in Romania are discussed. The assessment is based on the risk matrix approach. Two groups of experts were used in the investigation: participants in FP7 ARCADIA projects and members of the FALCON consortium. The results consist of the hierarchy of the risks obtained based on the appreciations of the two groups. They are comparatively presented and discussed in terms of the identified critical risks and possible measures for prevention and mitigation. Additionally, some elements derived from the experience of similar project such as SUSEN and ELI-NP are discussed. (authors)

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Aspects of human performance as perceived by the members of a joint probabilistic risk assessment working group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gubler, R.; Chakraborty, S.

1987-01-01

For the purpose of refining the basis for emergency planning a partial probabilistic risk assessment has been carried out for a large Swiss pressurized water reactor of German design. During the investigations on system reliability it became apparent that the most sensitive and also the most important subject to deal with in the working group was the quantification of the performance of the plant personnel. The discussions showed clearly, that different and sometimes antagonistic aspects of viewing the performance of the plant personnel exist. However, because of the limited data base in the field considered, impartiality is difficult. In order to handle these difficulties the analysis was carried out with close reliance on previously performed and accessible studies for similar tasks and situations in nuclear power plants. The procedure is illustrated by two examples, the first assessing the reliability of calibrating an instrument channel of the reactor protection systems, the second assessing the performance of operators during a small loss of coolant accident. (author)

Do pressure ulcer risk assessment scales improve clinical practice?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Kottner

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Jan Kottner1, Katrin Balzer21Department of Nursing Science, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; 2Nursing Research Group, Institute for Social Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, GermanyAbstract: Standardized assessment instruments are deemed important for estimating pressure ulcer risk. Today, more than 40 so-called pressure ulcer risk assessment scales are available but still there is an ongoing debate about their usefulness. From a measurement point of view pressure ulcer (PU risk assessment scales have serious limitations. Empirical evidence supporting the validity of PU risk assessment scale scores is weak and obtained scores contain varying amounts of measurement error. The concept of pressure ulcer risk is strongly related to the general health status and severity of illness. A clinical impact due do the application of these scales could also not be demonstrated. It is questionable whether completion of standardized pressure ulcer risk scales in clinical practice is really needed.Keywords: Braden pressure ulcer, prevention, risk assessment, nursing assessment, predictive value, clinical effectiveness, review

Research on the nutrition and cognition of high-risk stroke groups in community and the relevant factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, N-N; Zeng, K-X; Wang, Y-L; Sheng, P-J; Tang, C-Z; Xiao, P; Liu, X-W

2017-12-01

To investigate the prevalence rate of nutritional risk in high-risk stroke groups in community, analyze its influencing factors, and analyze and compare the relationship between nutritional risk or malnutrition assessed by different nutritional evaluation methods and cognitive function, so as to provide the basis and guidance for clinical nutritional assessment and support. A cross-sectional survey was performed for 1196 cases in high-risk stroke groups in community from December 2015 to January 2017. At the same time, the nutritional status of patients was evaluated using the mini nutritional assessment (MNA) and MNA-short form (MNA-SF), and the cognitive status of patients was evaluated using the mini-mental state examination (MMSE). Moreover, the relevant influencing factors of nutritional risk and MMSE score were analyzed and compared. High-risk stroke groups in community suffered from a high risk of malnutrition. MNA-SF had a higher specificity and lower false positive rate than MNA. Nutritional risk occurred more easily in high-risk stroke groups in community with a history of diabetes mellitus, less physical exercise or light manual labor, daily use of multiple drugs, and higher age. Those with a higher nutritional risk were more prone to cognitive impairment. High-risk stroke groups in community, complicated with hyperhomocysteinemia, daily use of three or more kinds of prescription drugs, and a previous history of stroke, were accompanied by cognitive impairment easily. MNA-SF can be used for the nutritional screening of high-risk stroke groups in community. For the high-risk stroke groups in community, the rational nutritional diet should be publicized, blood sugar should be controlled in a scientific manner and physical exercise should be moderately increased.

European Social Work Research Association SIG to Study Decisions, Assessment, and Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Brian; Killick, Campbell; Bertotti, Teresa; Enosh, Guy; Gautschi, Joel; Hietamäki, Johanna; Sicora, Alessandro; Whittaker, Andrew

2018-01-01

The increasing interest in professional judgement and decision making is often separate from the discourse about "risk," and the time-honored focus on assessment. The need to develop research in and across these topics was recognized in the founding of a Decisions, Assessment, and Risk Special Interest Group (DARSIG) by the European Social Work Research Association in 2014. The Group's interests include cognitive judgements; decision processes with clients, families, other professionals and courts; assessment tools and processes; the assessment, communication, and management of risk; and legal, ethical, and emotional aspects of these. This article outlines the founding and scope of DARSIG; gives an overview of decision making, assessment, and risk for practice; illustrates connections between these; and highlights future research directions. Professional knowledge about decision making, assessment, and risk complements knowledge about effectiveness of interventions. DARSIG promises to be a useful mechanism for the purpose.

Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

2010-01-01

The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Comparison of two instruments for assessing risk of postoperative nausea and vomiting.

Science.gov (United States)

Kapoor, Rachna; Hola, Eric T; Adamson, Robert T; Mathis, A Scott

2008-03-01

Two instruments for assessing patients' risk of postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) were compared. The existing protocol (protocol 1) assessed PONV risk using 16 weighted risk factors and was used for both adults and pediatric patients. The new protocol (protocol 2) included a form for adults and a pediatric-specific form. The form for adults utilized the simplified risk score, calculated using a validated, nonweighted, 4-point scale, and categorized patients' risk of PONV as low, moderate, or high. The form for pediatric patients used a 7-point, non-weighted scale and categorized patients' risk of PONV as moderate or high. A list was generated of all patients who had surgery during August 2005, for whom protocol 1 was used, and during April 2006, for whom protocol 2 was used. Fifty patients from each time period were randomly selected for data analysis. Data collected included the percentage of the form completed, the development of PONV, the number of PONV risk factors, patient demographics, and the appropriateness of prophylaxis. The mean +/- S.D. number of PONV risk factors was significantly lower in the group treated according to protocol 2 ( p = 0.001), but fewer patients in this group were categorized as low or moderate risk and more patients were identified as high risk (p < 0.001). More patients assessed by protocol 2 received fewer interventions than recommended (p < 0.001); however, the frequency of PONV did not significantly differ between groups. Implementation of a validated and simplified PONV risk-assessment tool appeared to improve form completion rates and appropriate risk assessment; however, the rates of PONV remained similar and fewer patients received appropriate prophylaxis compared with patients assessed by the existing risk-assessment tool.

Whither Risk Assessment: New Challenges and Opportunities a Third of a Century After the Red Book.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, Michael; Goldstein, Bernard D; Anderson, Elizabeth; Dourson, Michael; Landis, Wayne; North, D Warner

2015-11-01

Six multi-decade-long members of SRA reflect on the 1983 Red Book in order to examine the evolving relationship between risk assessment and risk management; the diffusion of risk assessment practice to risk areas such as homeland security and transportation; the quality of chemical risk databases; challenges from other groups to elements at the core of risk assessment practice; and our collective efforts to communicate risk assessment to a diverse set of critical groups that do not understand risk, risk assessment, or many other risk-related issues. The authors reflect on the 10 recommendations in the Red Book and present several pressing challenges for risk assessment practitioners. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A method of risk assessment for a multi-plant site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, R.F.

1983-06-01

A model is presented which can be used in conjunction with probabilistic risk assessment to estimate whether a site on which there are several plants (reactors or chemical plants containing radioactive materials) meets whatever risk acceptance criteria or numerical risk guidelines are applied at the time of the assessment in relation to various groups of people and for various sources of risk. The application of the multi-plant site model to the direct and inverse methods of risk assessment is described. A method is proposed by which the potential hazard rating associated with a given plant can be quantified so that an appropriate allocation can be made when assessing the risks associated with each of the plants on a site. (author)

New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

2016-01-01

Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment. Report of a Royal Society study group

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1983-01-01

The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines).

Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nielsen Louise Hjort

2015-12-01

Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

Johnson Space Center's Risk and Reliability Analysis Group 2008 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Valentine, Mark; Boyer, Roger; Cross, Bob; Hamlin, Teri; Roelant, Henk; Stewart, Mike; Bigler, Mark; Winter, Scott; Reistle, Bruce; Heydorn,Dick

2009-01-01

The Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate s Risk and Reliability Analysis Group provides both mathematical and engineering analysis expertise in the areas of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) analysis, and data collection and analysis. The fundamental goal of this group is to provide National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decisionmakers with the necessary information to make informed decisions when evaluating personnel, flight hardware, and public safety concerns associated with current operating systems as well as with any future systems. The Analysis Group includes a staff of statistical and reliability experts with valuable backgrounds in the statistical, reliability, and engineering fields. This group includes JSC S&MA Analysis Branch personnel as well as S&MA support services contractors, such as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and SoHaR. The Analysis Group s experience base includes nuclear power (both commercial and navy), manufacturing, Department of Defense, chemical, and shipping industries, as well as significant aerospace experience specifically in the Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), and Constellation Programs. The Analysis Group partners with project and program offices, other NASA centers, NASA contractors, and universities to provide additional resources or information to the group when performing various analysis tasks. The JSC S&MA Analysis Group is recognized as a leader in risk and reliability analysis within the NASA community. Therefore, the Analysis Group is in high demand to help the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) continue to fly safely, assist in designing the next generation spacecraft for the Constellation Program (CxP), and promote advanced analytical techniques. The Analysis Section s tasks include teaching classes and instituting personnel qualification processes to enhance the professional abilities of our analysts

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

Risk assessment and management approaches on mental health units.

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, P

2013-11-01

This exploratory and descriptive study took place in one Canadian province. The study aimed to: (1) to identify and describe the nature and extent of current risk assessment and management approaches used in the adult inpatient mental health and forensic units; and (2) to identify good practice and shortfalls in the nature and extent of the approaches currently utilized. Data were collected from 48 participants through nine focus groups. Participants reported that they used a clinical approach to risk assessment. They had also not considered risk assessment and management as a proactive structured process. Education and training was also limited and skills were developed over time through practice. Five keys issues are discussed as important: reliance on clinical judgement alone is not the best choice to make; the need to consider risk as a whole concept; risk management being more reactive than proactive; education and training; and client involvement in risk assessment. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment and management of suicide risk in primary care.

Science.gov (United States)

Saini, Pooja; While, David; Chantler, Khatidja; Windfuhr, Kirsten; Kapur, Navneet

2014-01-01

Risk assessment and management of suicidal patients is emphasized as a key component of care in specialist mental health services, but these issues are relatively unexplored in primary care services. To examine risk assessment and management in primary and secondary care in a clinical sample of individuals who were in contact with mental health services and died by suicide. Data collection from clinical proformas, case records, and semistructured face-to-face interviews with general practitioners. Primary and secondary care data were available for 198 of the 336 cases (59%). The overall agreement in the rating of risk between services was poor (overall κ = .127, p = .10). Depression, care setting (after discharge), suicidal ideation at last contact, and a history of self-harm were associated with a rating of higher risk. Suicide prevention policies were available in 25% of primary care practices, and 33% of staff received training in suicide risk assessments. Risk is difficult to predict, but the variation in risk assessment between professional groups may reflect poor communication. Further research is required to understand this. There appears to be a relative lack of suicide risk assessment training in primary care.

Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groer, P.G.

1980-01-01

New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Tsunami risk assessment for facility group over a wide area using inundation assessment method considering energy conservation law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukutani, Yo; Imamura, Fumihiko; Tokunaga, Takeshi; Sato, Ichiro

2015-01-01

We propose a quantitative evaluation method of overall tsunami risk that the entire facility group over a wide area holds. We considerably reduced the calculation cost for tsunami inundation depth by adopting the evaluation method using energy conservation law as compared with the evaluation method using non-linear long wave equation. For financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies with contractors over a wide area and business companies with multiple their assets and facilities in various places, the proposed evaluation method in this study could be a useful approach to implement their risk-based management decisions for tsunami risk. (author)

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Hepatitis C infection in risk groups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sead Ahmetagić

2006-11-01

Full Text Available Hepatitis C infection is important global health problem with wide spectrum of health, social and economic consequences. The goal of this research was to estimate prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection in risk groups, and to determine association hepatitis C virus (HCV infection and risk factors. Research included 4627 subjects divided in two groups. Test group included 2627 subjects divided in 4 subgroups with risk for HCV infection: those who received blood transfusion without screening on HCV (it was introduced in 1995 (700; intravenous drug users (60; patients on hemodialysis (168 and health care workers (1699. Control group included 2000 healthy volunteer blood donors. In all subjects anti-HCV antibodies were tested with third generation ELISA test. Positive serum samples were tested for presence of HCVRNA, using reaction of reverse transcription and polymerase chain reaction. In all anti-HCV positive subjects further epidemiological and clinical workup was performed. Prevalence of HCV infection in risk groups was: 4.6% in subjects who have received blood transfusions without HCV blood screening, 35% in intravenous drug users, 58.9% in patients on chronic dialysis, and 0.4% in health care workers. In control group prevalence was low (0.2%. In the group of 158 anti-HCV positive subjects, 73.4% had HCVRNA. The largest number of subjects with HCV infection was in the age group of 30-49 years (45.8%. This study showed that multiple blood transfusions before introducing the blood screening for HCV, longer duration of intravenous drug abuse, longer duration of hemodialysis treatment, larger number of accidental injuries in health care workers are independent and statistically significant risk factors for those groups examined. Results of this study confirm that general screening for HCV infection is recommended in risk groups for HCV infection in order to identify to prevent and to treat it.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

An exposure-based framework for grouping pollutants for a cumulative risk assessment approach: case study of indoor semi-volatile organic compounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Fournier, Kevin; Glorennec, Philippe; Bonvallot, Nathalie

2014-04-01

Humans are exposed to a large number of contaminants, many of which may have similar health effects. This paper presents a framework for identifying pollutants to be included in a cumulative risk assessment approach. To account for the possibility of simultaneous exposure to chemicals with common toxic modes of action, the first step of the traditional risk assessment process, i.e. hazard identification, is structured in three sub-steps: (1a) Identification of pollutants people are exposed to, (1b) identification of effects and mechanisms of action of these pollutants, (1c) grouping of pollutants according to similarity of their mechanism of action and health effects. Based on this exposure-based grouping we can derive "multi-pollutant" toxicity reference values, in the "dose-response assessment" step. The approach proposed in this work is original in that it is based on real exposures instead of a limited number of pollutants from a unique chemical family, as traditionally performed. This framework is illustrated by the case study of semi-volatile organic compounds in French dwellings, providing insights into practical considerations regarding the accuracy of the available toxicological information. This case study illustrates the value of the exposure-based approach as opposed to the traditional cumulative framework, in which chemicals with similar health effects were not always included in the same chemical class. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Severe accidents risk assessment as a basis for emergency preparedness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinka, D.; Mikulicic, V.

2000-01-01

The paper demonstrates, by example of the Republic of Croatia, the possibilities of implementing risk assessment as basis for nuclear accident emergency preparedness development. Individual risks of severe accidents for citizens of the biggest Croatian population centers, as well as collective risk for entire population have been assessed using the PRONEL method. The assessment covered 90 power reactors located at a distance up to 1.000 km. The conducted assessment shows the risks for various regions of the Republic of Croatia, and comparison between them. If risk would be taken as basic criterion in nuclear emergency planning, the results of assessment would directly indicate the necessary preparation level for each region. Furthermore, the assessment of risks from individual power plants and power plant types indicates to which facilities the greatest attention should be paid in nuclear accidents preparedness development. Risks from groups of power plants formed in accordance with their respective distance from exposure location shows what kind of tools for determining consequences and protective actions during a nuclear accident should be made available. (author)

Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Science.gov (United States)

Bayramov, A. A.

In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

Chemical Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

Risk communication discourse among ecological risk assessment professionals and its implications for communication with nonexperts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hunka, Agnieszka; Palmqvist, Annemette; Thorbek, Pernille

2013-01-01

Risk communication, especially to the general public and end users of plant protection products, is an important challenge. Currently, much of the risk communication the general public receives is via the popular press, and risk managers face the challenge of presenting their decisions...... and their scientific basis to the general public in an understandable way. Therefore, we decided to explore the obstacles in risk communication, as done by expert risk assessors and managers. Using the discourse analysis framework and readability tests, we studied perspectives of 3 stakeholder groups......—regulators, industry representatives, and academics across Europe. We conducted 30 confidential interviews (10 participants in each group), with part of the interview guide focused on communication of pesticide risk to the general public and the ideas experts in the field of risk assessment and management hold...

Nutritional risk assessment in critically ill cancer patients: systematic review

Science.gov (United States)

Fruchtenicht, Ana Valéria Gonçalves; Poziomyck, Aline Kirjner; Kabke, Geórgia Brum; Loss, Sérgio Henrique; Antoniazzi, Jorge Luiz; Steemburgo, Thais; Moreira, Luis Fernando

2015-01-01

Objective To systematically review the main methods for nutritional risk assessment used in critically ill cancer patients and present the methods that better assess risks and predict relevant clinical outcomes in this group of patients, as well as to discuss the pros and cons of these methods according to the current literature. Methods The study consisted of a systematic review based on analysis of manuscripts retrieved from the PubMed, LILACS and SciELO databases by searching for the key words “nutritional risk assessment”, “critically ill” and “cancer”. Results Only 6 (17.7%) of 34 initially retrieved papers met the inclusion criteria and were selected for the review. The main outcomes of these studies were that resting energy expenditure was associated with undernourishment and overfeeding. The high Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment score was significantly associated with low food intake, weight loss and malnutrition. In terms of biochemical markers, higher levels of creatinine, albumin and urea were significantly associated with lower mortality. The worst survival was found for patients with worse Eastern Cooperative Oncologic Group - performance status, high Glasgow Prognostic Score, low albumin, high Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment score and high alkaline phosphatase levels. Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index values < 87 were significantly associated with mortality. A high Prognostic Inflammatory and Nutritional Index score was associated with abnormal nutritional status in critically ill cancer patients. Among the reviewed studies that examined weight and body mass index alone, no significant clinical outcome was found. Conclusion None of the methods reviewed helped to define risk among these patients. Therefore, assessment by a combination of weight loss and serum measurements, preferably in combination with other methods using scores such as Eastern Cooperative Oncologic Group - performance status, Glasgow Prognostic

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murphy, Patrick [Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XI, Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection (Belgium)

1992-07-01

In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, Patrick

1992-01-01

In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

Evaluation of a novel risk assessment method for self-harm associated with Borderline Personality Disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, Sathya; Broadbear, Jillian H; Thompson, Katherine; Correia, Anna; Preston, Martin; Katz, Paul; Trett, Robert

2017-10-01

Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is associated with frequent self-harm and suicidal behaviours. This study compared physician-assessed self-harm risk and intervention choice according to a (i) standard risk assessment and (ii) BPD-specific risk assessment methods. Forty-five junior and senior mental health physicians were assigned to standard or BPD-specific risk training groups. The assessment utilized a BPD case vignette containing four scenarios describing high/low lethality self-harm and chronic/new patterns of self-harm behaviour. Participants chose from among four interventions, each corresponding to a risk category. Standard and BPD-specific groups were alike in their assessment of self-harm risk. Divergence occurred on intervention choice for assessments of low lethality, chronic risk ( pself harm-associated risk, BPD-specific training raised awareness of BPD-appropriate interventions, particularly in the context of chronic patterns of self-harm behaviour. Wider dissemination of BPD-specific risk training may enhance the confidence of mental health clinicians in identifying the nature of self-harm risk as well as the most clinically appropriate interventions for clients with BPD.

Effect of standardized training on the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool: a prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

da Costa, Bruno R; Beckett, Brooke; Diaz, Alison; Resta, Nina M; Johnston, Bradley C; Egger, Matthias; Jüni, Peter; Armijo-Olivo, Susan

2017-03-03

The Cochrane risk of bias tool is commonly criticized for having a low reliability. We aimed to investigate whether training of raters, with objective and standardized instructions on how to assess risk of bias, can improve the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias tool. In this pilot study, four raters inexperienced in risk of bias assessment were randomly allocated to minimal or intensive standardized training for risk of bias assessment of randomized trials of physical therapy treatments for patients with knee osteoarthritis pain. Two raters were experienced risk of bias assessors who served as reference. The primary outcome of our study was between-group reliability, defined as the agreement of the risk of bias assessments of inexperienced raters with the reference assessments of experienced raters. Consensus-based assessments were used for this purpose. The secondary outcome was within-group reliability, defined as the agreement of assessments within pairs of inexperienced raters. We calculated the chance-corrected weighted Kappa to quantify agreement within and between groups of raters for each of the domains of the risk of bias tool. A total of 56 trials were included in our analysis. The Kappa for the agreement of inexperienced raters with reference across items of the risk of bias tool ranged from 0.10 to 0.81 for the minimal training group and from 0.41 to 0.90 for the standardized training group. The Kappa values for the agreement within pairs of inexperienced raters across the items of the risk of bias tool ranged from 0 to 0.38 for the minimal training group and from 0.93 to 1 for the standardized training group. Between-group differences in Kappa for the agreement of inexperienced raters with reference always favored the standardized training group and was most pronounced for incomplete outcome data (difference in Kappa 0.52, p training on risk of bias assessment may significantly improve the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias tool.

Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

2010-04-01

Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

1996-01-01

As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

Guidance Manual for Conducting Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessments at the INEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; R. C. Morris

1995-06-01

This document presents reference material for conducting screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERAs)for the waste area groups (WAGs) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included in this document are discussions of the objectives of and processes for conducting SLERAs. The Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework is closely followed. Guidance for site characterization, stressor characterization, ecological effects, pathways of contaminant migration, the conceptual site model, assessment endpoints, measurement endpoints, analysis guidance, and risk characterization are included.

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

7 CFR 407.17 - Group risk plan for wheat.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Group risk plan for wheat. 407.17 Section 407.17..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GROUP RISK PLAN OF INSURANCE REGULATIONS § 407.17 Group risk plan for wheat. The provisions of the Group Risk Plan for Wheat for the 2000 and succeeding crop years are as follows: 1...

7 CFR 407.11 - Group risk plan for corn.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Group risk plan for corn. 407.11 Section 407.11..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GROUP RISK PLAN OF INSURANCE REGULATIONS § 407.11 Group risk plan for corn. The provisions of the Group Risk Plan for Corn for the 2000 and succeeding crop years are as follows: 1...

Assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk: an original multi-criteria modeling approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sylvie Briand

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Yellow fever (YF virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with "exposure" to virus/vector and one with "susceptibility" of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. CONCLUSION: This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors.

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

Giving in to Group Pressure: The Impact of Socialization and Risk on Perceived Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

McIntyre, Katharine A.; Platania, Judith

2009-01-01

The current study applies the perspective of decision theory to understanding how choices are made in an in-group setting involving social pressure and risk. Two hundred sixty-one undergraduate students provided assessments of consequences associated with illegally consuming alcohol in different environments with differing degrees of risk. In…

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

A counterfactual p-value approach for benefit-risk assessment in clinical trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Donglin; Chen, Ming-Hui; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Wei, Rachel; Ding, Beiying; Ke, Chunlei; Jiang, Qi

2015-01-01

Clinical trials generally allow various efficacy and safety outcomes to be collected for health interventions. Benefit-risk assessment is an important issue when evaluating a new drug. Currently, there is a lack of standardized and validated benefit-risk assessment approaches in drug development due to various challenges. To quantify benefits and risks, we propose a counterfactual p-value (CP) approach. Our approach considers a spectrum of weights for weighting benefit-risk values and computes the extreme probabilities of observing the weighted benefit-risk value in one treatment group as if patients were treated in the other treatment group. The proposed approach is applicable to single benefit and single risk outcome as well as multiple benefit and risk outcomes assessment. In addition, the prior information in the weight schemes relevant to the importance of outcomes can be incorporated in the approach. The proposed CPs plot is intuitive with a visualized weight pattern. The average area under CP and preferred probability over time are used for overall treatment comparison and a bootstrap approach is applied for statistical inference. We assess the proposed approach using simulated data with multiple efficacy and safety endpoints and compare its performance with a stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis approach.

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Depleted uranium risk assessment at Aberdeen Proving Ground

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebinger, M.H.; Myers, O.B.; Kennedy, P.L.; Clements, W.H.

1993-01-01

The Environmental Science Group at Los Alamos and the Test and Evaluation Command (TECOM) are assessing the risk of depleted uranium (DU) testing at Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG). Conceptual and mathematical models of DU transfer through the APG ecosystem have been developed in order to show the mechanisms by which DU migrates or remains unavailable to different flora and fauna and to humans. The models incorporate actual rates of DU transfer between different ecosystem components as much as possible. Availability of data on DU transport through different pathways is scarce and constrains some of the transfer rates that can be used. Estimates of transfer rates were derived from literature sources and used in the mass-transfer models when actual transfer rates were unavailable. Objectives for this risk assessment are (1) to assess if DU transports away from impact areas; (2) to estimate how much, if any, DU migrates into Chesapeake Bay; (3) to determine if there are appreciable risks to the ecosystems due to DU testing; (4) to estimate the risk to human health as a result of DU testing

Cancer risk assessments and environmental regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scroggin, D.G.

1990-01-01

Governmental regulation of toxic substances, such as carcinogens and radiation, prompts both legal and scientific controversies. Industry, environmental activist groups, government regulators, and the general public are all concerned with the question of how environmental risk to public health is to be measured and what level of risk warrants government action under the environmental laws. Several recent events shed light on the fundamental scientific and legal problems inherent in such regulation, and these events may affect the direction of future developments. These events include implementation of generic Risk Assessment Guidelines by the US EPA, litigation challenging EPA's regulation of carcinogenic substances, new scientific understanding of the relative risks from human exposure to natural and man-made sources, and the continuing growth of toxic tort litigation in which victims of cancer seek large damages from industrial emitters of pollution

Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.

2002-10-01

The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

2002-10-01

The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

New assessment for advanced age: Italian study protocol on the assessment of surgical risk in the over-75-year age-group.

Science.gov (United States)

Pilleri, Annarita; Scorcu, Giampaolo

2017-07-18

The role of age in the risk stratification of patients candidate for non-cardiac surgery is still today an unresolved issue. European guidelines, in contrast to American guidelines, do not attribute to age an independent role in increasing the risk, and the indices for assessment of perioperative cardiovascular risk are based on studies that were carried out on middle-aged subgroups of the population without specific attention to the elderly patient. While the indices of geriatric assessment have still not yet gained a standardized role in the risk stratification of patients candidate to non-cardiac surgery, their need is becoming increasingly urgent considering the epidemiological impact of elderly patients with multi-comorbidities who more and more in the future will undergo such interventions. The European guidelines themselves identify an "evidence gap" concerning frailty which requires a deeper evaluation. The aim of the multicenter observational study VALUTA-75 is to verify if the indices of risk stratification routinely used by the cardiologist integrated with those of physical and cognitive performance of specific geriatric pertinence can improve the ability to predict perioperative cardiovascular and non cardiovascular events, with the scope of improving the therapeutic process.

Component fragility analysis methodology for seismic risk assessment projects. Proven PSA safety document processing and assessment procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolar, Ladislav

2013-03-01

The seismic risk task assessment task should be structured as follows: (i) Define all reactor unit building structures, components and equipment involved in the creation of an initiating event (IE) induced by an seismic event or contributing to the reliability of reactor unit response to an IE; (ii) construct and estimate of the fragility curves for the building and component groups sub (i); (iii) determine the HCLPF for each group of buildings, components or equipment; (iv) determine the nuclear source's seismic resistance (SME) as the minimum HCLPF from the group of equipment in the risk-dominant scenarios; (v) define the risk-limiting group of components, equipment and building structures to the SME value; (vi) based on the fragility levels, identify component groups for which a more detailed fragility analysis is needed; and (vii) recommend groups of equipment or building structures that should be taken into account with respect to the seismic risk, i.e. such groups of equipment or building structures as exhibit a low seismic resistance (HCLPF) and, at the same time, are involved to a significant extent in the reactor unit's seismic risk (are present in the dominant risk scenarios). (P.A.)

Multi-factor evaluation indicator method for the risk assessment of atmospheric and oceanic hazard group due to the attack of tropical cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Peng; Du, Mei

2018-06-01

China's southeast coastal areas frequently suffer from storm surge due to the attack of tropical cyclones (TCs) every year. Hazards induced by TCs are complex, such as strong wind, huge waves, storm surge, heavy rain, floods, and so on. The atmospheric and oceanic hazards cause serious disasters and substantial economic losses. This paper, from the perspective of hazard group, sets up a multi-factor evaluation method for the risk assessment of TC hazards using historical extreme data of concerned atmospheric and oceanic elements. Based on the natural hazard dynamic process, the multi-factor indicator system is composed of nine natural hazard factors representing intensity and frequency, respectively. Contributing to the indicator system, in order of importance, are maximum wind speed by TCs, attack frequency of TCs, maximum surge height, maximum wave height, frequency of gusts ≥ Scale 8, rainstorm intensity, maximum tidal range, rainstorm frequency, then sea-level rising rate. The first four factors are the most important, whose weights exceed 10% in the indicator system. With normalization processing, all the single-hazard factors are superposed by multiplying their weights to generate a superposed TC hazard. The multi-factor evaluation indicator method was applied to the risk assessment of typhoon-induced atmospheric and oceanic hazard group in typhoon-prone southeast coastal cities of China.

A Novel Dynamic Algorithm for IT Outsourcing Risk Assessment Based on Transaction Cost Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guodong Cong

2015-01-01

Full Text Available With the great risk exposed in IT outsourcing, how to assess IT outsourcing risk becomes a critical issue. However, most of approaches to date need to further adapt to the particular complexity of IT outsourcing risk for either falling short in subjective bias, inaccuracy, or efficiency. This paper proposes a dynamic algorithm of risk assessment. It initially forwards extended three layers (risk factors, risks, and risk consequences of transferring mechanism based on transaction cost theory (TCT as the framework of risk analysis, which bridges the interconnection of components in three layers with preset transferring probability and impact. Then, it establishes an equation group between risk factors and risk consequences, which assures the “attribution” more precisely to track the specific sources that lead to certain loss. Namely, in each phase of the outsourcing lifecycle, both the likelihood and the loss of each risk factor and those of each risk are acquired through solving equation group with real data of risk consequences collected. In this “reverse” way, risk assessment becomes a responsive and interactive process with real data instead of subjective estimation, which improves the accuracy and alleviates bias in risk assessment. The numerical case proves the effectiveness of the algorithm compared with the approach forwarded by other references.

Analysis of dysphagia risk using the modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly

OpenAIRE

Byeon, Haewon

2016-01-01

[Purpose] The elderly are susceptible to dysphagia, and complications can be minimized if high-risk groups are screened in early stages and properly rehabilitated. This study provides basic material for the early detection and prevention of dysphagia by investigating the risks of dysphagia and related factors in community-dwelling elders. [Subjects and Methods] Participants included 325 community-dwelling elderly people aged 65 or older. The modified dysphagia risk assessment for the communit...

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-04-01

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

Occurrence and ecological risk assessment of emerging organic chemicals in urban rivers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peng, Fengjiao; Pan, Chang Gui; Zhang, Min

2017-01-01

at the suburb area. A screening-level risk assessment showed that 4-nonylphenol and triclosan (TCS) pose potential risks to aquatic organisms in most sampling sites. For individual taxa, 4-NP may pose risks to various groups of aquatic organisms, while TCS only might pose high risks to algae....

Community Risk Assessment of Rainfall Variability under Rain-fed ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2016-10-02

Oct 2, 2016 ... Department of Planning and Management ... Risk Assessment (CRA) and local knowledge as a bottom-up approach to community-based .... (Care International, 2010; Ghana, 2011; World Bank Group [WBG], 2010). Forecast ...

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Strategy for integrated CERCLA/NEPA risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Peterson, J.M.; Blunt, D.A.; Fingleton, D.J.; Picel, M.H.

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has established a policy whereby, for remedial actions, the procedural and documentational requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are integrated with those of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. However, the objectives of risk assessment under NEPA and CERCLA differ somewhat. Until its recent application at contaminated sites, NEPA analysis has typically been applied to impacts from taking actions at clean sites (e.g., for construction activities), and a somewhat loosely structured process has historically been used to estimate relative risks for NEPA analyses. Decisions such as cleanup levels were not made on the basis of the risk estimates, and they therefore tended to be conservative and were not discussed in detail. In contrast, risks estimated for Superfund (CERCLA) sites are used to focus the decision-making process for those sites and support national prioritization for cleanup, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a detailed framework for preparing baseline health risk assessments for these sites. The purpose of this paper is to discuss issues related to intergrating the CERCLA and NEPA approaches into the risk assessments that have been prepared for a DOE remedial action project at the Weldon Spring site near St. Charles, Missouri. These issues are grouped into three basic categories: general assumptions for the impact evaluation, data management, and presentation of the methodology and results. This paper is not intended to represent DOE policy and guidance, nor does it represent the only approach that can be used for integrated risk assessments. It merely discusses the process that was used for the Weldon Spring project, articulating the issues that were encountered and how they were addressed

Violent reinjury risk assessment instrument (VRRAI) for hospital-based violence intervention programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Erik J; Dodington, James; Hunt, Ava; Henderson, Terrell; Nwabuo, Adaobi; Dicker, Rochelle; Juillard, Catherine

2017-09-01

Violent injury is the second most common cause of death among 15- to 24-year olds in the US. Up to 58% of violently injured youth return to the hospital with a second violent injury. Hospital-based violence intervention programs (HVIPs) have been shown to reduce injury recidivism through intensive case management. However, no validated guidelines for risk assessment strategies in the HVIP setting have been reported. We aimed to use qualitative methods to investigate the key components of risk assessments employed by HVIP case managers and to propose a risk assessment model based on this qualitative analysis. An established academic hospital-affiliated HVIP served as the nexus for this research. Thematic saturation was reached with 11 semi-structured interviews and two focus groups conducted with HVIP case managers and key informants identified through snowball sampling. Interactions were analyzed by a four-member team using Nvivo 10, employing the constant comparison method. Risk factors identified were used to create a set of models presented in two follow-up HVIP case managers and leadership focus groups. Eighteen key themes within seven domains (environment, identity, mental health, behavior, conflict, indicators of lower risk, and case management) and 141 potential risk factors for use in the risk assessment framework were identified. The most salient factors were incorporated into eight models that were presented to the HVIP case managers. A 29-item algorithmic structured professional judgment model was chosen. We identified four tiers of risk factors for violent reinjury that were incorporated into a proposed risk assessment instrument, VRRAI. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Managing industrial risk--having a tested and proven system to prevent and assess risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, Stephen

2006-03-17

Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new

Caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

Structuring and self-competence: How they can make a difference in assessing and managing risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Virtu Chongtham

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Assessing risk is a mandatory part of standard mental health practice in the West, but is fraught with difficulties. Structuring and self-efficacy are important factors, but there is near absence of work on this aspect from India. This study aimed to determine how these two concepts can make a difference in assessing and managing risk. Methods: A prospective cross-sectional study over 2 months was conducted with 35 participants (dealing with patients with mental illnesses from Department of Psychiatry, Government Medical College and Hospital-32, Chandigarh and 30 participants in comparison group (dealing with people with intellectual disabilities from Regional Institute of Mentally Handicapped-31, Chandigarh using Risk Assessment and Management Self-efficacy Scale (RAMSES. Results : In overall sample (n = 65, only 17% reported using a screening instrument while 62% reported use of screening questions thereby making the total prevalence of use of screening instruments and/or questions as 79%. Total RAMSES score and mean score for all three domains was 7.14 and between 7 and 8 respectively for the study group; while for the comparison group, the total RAMSES score was 7.92 and the mean score for all three domains was between 7 and 9 respectively indicating above average level of reported self-efficacy. For the individual RAMSES items, a lower competency (<7 for study group and (<8 for comparison group was reported for formal or written process related to synthesis of risk assessment and risk management. The study group showed lower self-efficacy scores on majority of individual RAMSES items, 2/3 domains and overall score. Conclusions: Indian mental health professionals of different backgrounds with varying duration of experience reported reasonable degree of competence regarding risk assessment (primarily for the risk toward self and others. Hence, we recommend that they embrace the western concept of "risk assessment" by incorporating

Effect of standardized training on the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool: a study protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

da Costa, Bruno R; Resta, Nina M; Beckett, Brooke; Israel-Stahre, Nicholas; Diaz, Alison; Johnston, Bradley C; Egger, Matthias; Jüni, Peter; Armijo-Olivo, Susan

2014-12-13

The Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tool has been widely embraced by the systematic review community, but several studies have reported that its reliability is low. We aim to investigate whether training of raters, including objective and standardized instructions on how to assess risk of bias, can improve the reliability of this tool. We describe the methods that will be used in this investigation and present an intensive standardized training package for risk of bias assessment that could be used by contributors to the Cochrane Collaboration and other reviewers. This is a pilot study. We will first perform a systematic literature review to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that will be used for risk of bias assessment. Using the identified RCTs, we will then do a randomized experiment, where raters will be allocated to two different training schemes: minimal training and intensive standardized training. We will calculate the chance-corrected weighted Kappa with 95% confidence intervals to quantify within- and between-group Kappa agreement for each of the domains of the risk of bias tool. To calculate between-group Kappa agreement, we will use risk of bias assessments from pairs of raters after resolution of disagreements. Between-group Kappa agreement will quantify the agreement between the risk of bias assessment of raters in the training groups and the risk of bias assessment of experienced raters. To compare agreement of raters under different training conditions, we will calculate differences between Kappa values with 95% confidence intervals. This study will investigate whether the reliability of the risk of bias tool can be improved by training raters using standardized instructions for risk of bias assessment. One group of inexperienced raters will receive intensive training on risk of bias assessment and the other will receive minimal training. By including a control group with minimal training, we will attempt to mimic what many review authors

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

Associated Behavioral Risks in a Group of Women During Pregnancy from Mures District

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florina Ruţa

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Background. It is well-known that the exposure during pregnancy to lifestyle risk factors can affect thehealth both for the mother and the fetus. There are many risk factors for pregnancy, including: smoking, alcohol consumption, sedentary pattern, irregular daily meal serving plan, lack of knowledge regarding health prevention. The main objective of our study was to assess the practices, knowledge and attitudes towards lifestyle risk behaviors during pregnancy in a group of women from Tirgu-Mures area.

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterhouse, Rachel

1992-01-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

Transparency in risk assessments - Presenting the 'expectation value' of post-closure risks from radioactive waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.; Pollard, S.J.T.; Smith, R.E.; Yearsley, R.A.

1999-01-01

derived from site characterisation or laboratory experiments might be more suitably assessed through 'what-if' calculations outside the risk assessment. Transparency might be enhanced by a wide-ranging debate, involving developer, regulator and other stakeholders, about the types of low probability or speculative events and processes to be examined in this way. If there was a consensus view that a particular event or process of this nature should be given greater emphasis, steps might be taken to modify the safety case, and possibly the design of the facility. The developer would maintain a basis for proceeding, while stakeholders would have the assurance that a mechanism existed for addressing their concerns in the overall safety case presented to the regulator. The study also concluded that the uncertainties concerning future populations were likely to be too great for assessments of group risk to be useful in regulatory decision-making. Comparative analyses of group risk may however be beneficial in making and explaining design decisions

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

2012-01-01

Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose–response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials’ physical–chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

Science.gov (United States)

Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

2012-09-01

Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose-response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials' physical-chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgieva, R.

2009-01-01

Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

The relationship between health risks and health and productivity costs among employees at Pepsi Bottling Group.

Science.gov (United States)

Henke, Rachel M; Carls, Ginger S; Short, Meghan E; Pei, Xiaofei; Wang, Shaohung; Moley, Susan; Sullivan, Mark; Goetzel, Ron Z

2010-05-01

To evaluate relationships between modifiable health risks and costs and measure potential cost savings from risk reduction programs. Health risk information from active Pepsi Bottling Group employees who completed health risk assessments between 2004 and 2006 (N = 11,217) were linked to medical care, workers' compensation, and short-term disability cost data. Ten health risks were examined. Multivariate analyses were performed to estimate costs associated with having high risk, holding demographics, and other risks constant. Potential savings from risk reduction were estimated. High risk for weight, blood pressure, glucose, and cholesterol had the greatest impact on total costs. A one-percentage point annual reduction in the health risks assessed would yield annual per capita savings of $83.02 to $103.39. Targeted programs that address modifiable health risks are expected to produce substantial cost reductions in multiple benefit categories.

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Risk assessments ensure safer power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-02-19

A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

Assessing the risks of nuclear and chemical contamination in the former Soviet Union

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirk, J.

1996-01-01

In the first four chapters the focus is on risk assessment and the role of various segments of the society in defining risk criteria. In Chapter 2, the interface between science, policymaking, and environmental law is addressed. In chapter 3, the importance of including organizational and human factors in risk assessments is discussed. It is noted that risk assessment is also a matter for an informed public. Chapter 4 focuses on the specific application of technology to hazardous waste disposal. The most expensive high-tech equipment may not always be the best to solve a particular disposal problem. In Chapter 5 international efforts to determine the effects of nuclear testing are examined, moving on to question the methods used to define risk criteria. The last four chapters of the book focus on risk assessment and the role of various segments of the society in defining risk criteria. Chapter 6 is an introduction to the work done to assess the environmental and health affects of the 1986 accident at Chernobyl. Also the Ukrainian government's effort to assess additional natural and anthropogenic sources of radioactive contamination is discussed. In chapter 7, the efforts by the International Atomic Energy Agency and other organizations to assess the effects of Chernobyl are examined. The eighth chapter introduces the means by which nongovernmental environmental groups (NGO), e.g. Greenpeace, collect information on environmental threats and the role they play in informing the larger public about them. In this case, the dumping of radioactive waste in the Kara and Barents Seas is examined in detail. In Chapter 9 it is examined how interdisciplinary groups are required to assess the environmental and health effects of the dumping in the Kara and Barents Seas. The issues of reliable data and determining risk in the absence of data are discussed. In the final chapter, the major themes and results of the workshop are summarized, including a set of recommendations for

Risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

2010-01-01

International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

Caries risk assessment in pregnant women using cariogram

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dolić Olivera

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction/Objective. “Cariogram” takes into account interactions between caries-related factors and expresses a graphic assessment of the caries risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between caries risk and different variables of Cariogram in pregnant women. Methods. This study included 96 pregnant women. At baseline, data on general health, diet, oral hygiene, and fluoride exposure were obtained. DMFT (decayed, missing, and filled teeth index was calculated by clinical examination. Saliva analyses included mutans streptococci and lactobacilli counts, buffer capacity, and secretion rate. Scores were entered and caries risk was assessed. The women were divided into five groups according to their Cariogram caries risk. Results. The results of the study showed that 29.17% (28 of the pregnant women had high caries risk, 21.88% (21 – medium, 17.71% (17 – low, 16.67% (16 – very high, and 14.58% (14 – very low caries risk. In an average caries risk profile of pregnant women, the dominant sector was “Bacteria” (18.85% of the risk structure profile, followed by “Diet” (17.97%, “Circumstances” (15.68%, and “Susceptibility” sector (14.65%. Conclusion. Cariogram shows that pregnant women in Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina, had 46.14% chance of avoiding caries in the future. The Cariogram model can successfully determine caries risk profiles for pregnant women.

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

The Role of Cumulative Risk Assessment in Decisions about Environmental Justice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ken Sexton

2010-11-01

Full Text Available There is strong presumptive evidence that people living in poverty and certain racial and ethnic groups bear a disproportionate burden of environmental health risk. Many have argued that conducting formal assessments of the health risk experienced by affected communities is both unnecessary and counterproductive—that instead of analyzing the situation our efforts should be devoted to fixing obvious problems and rectifying observable wrongs. We contend that formal assessment of cumulative health risks from combined effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors is a valuable tool to aid decision makers in choosing risk management options that are effective, efficient, and equitable. If used properly, cumulative risk assessment need not impair decision makers’ discretion, nor should it be used as an excuse for doing nothing in the face of evident harm. Good policy decisions require more than good intentions; they necessitate analysis of risk-related information along with careful consideration of economic issues, ethical and moral principles, legal precedents, political realities, cultural beliefs, societal values, and bureaucratic impediments. Cumulative risk assessment can provide a systematic and impartial means for informing policy decisions about environmental justice.

Assessing Protective Factors for Violence Risk in U.K. General Mental Health Services Using the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Haines, Alina; Brown, Andrew; Javaid, Syed Fahad; Khan, Fayyaz; Noblett, Steve; Omodunbi, Oladipupo; Sadiq, Khurram; Zaman, Wahid; Whittington, Richard

2017-12-01

Violence risk assessment and management are key tasks in mental health services and should be guided by validated instruments covering both risk and protective factors. This article is part of an international effort to validate the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) for violence. The SAPROF, Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) and the Psychopathy Checklist-Screening Version (PCL-SV) were administered in a sample of 261 patients in U.K. forensic, general inpatient, and community mental health settings. There was significant variation between these groups on SAPROF scores with fewer protective factors in the forensic group. The prospective validity of the SAPROF for nonviolence in the general inpatient and community samples was moderate (area under the curve [AUC] = .60). Adoption of the SAPROF or similar instruments as a supplement to risk-focused assessments has the potential to improve awareness of protective factors and enhance therapeutic engagement in a range of mental health services.

Psychological impact of family history risk assessment in primary care: a mixed methods study.

Science.gov (United States)

Birt, Linda; Emery, Jon D; Prevost, A Toby; Sutton, Stephen; Walter, Fiona M

2014-08-01

Routine family history risk assessment for chronic diseases could enable primary care practitioners to efficiently identify at-risk patients and promote preventive management strategies. To investigate patients' understanding and responses to family history risk assessment in primary care. A mixed methods study set in 10 Eastern England general practices. Participants in a family history questionnaire validation study were triaged into population or increased risk for four chronic diseases (type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer, colorectal cancer). Questionnaires completed immediately prior to the family history consultation (baseline) and 4 weeks later (follow-up) assessed the psychological impact, including State-Trait Anxiety Inventory scores. Semi-structured interviews explored the meaning participants gave to their personal familial disease risk. Four hundred and fifty-three participants completed both baseline and follow-up questionnaires and 30 were interviewed. At follow-up, there was no increase in anxiety among either group, or differences between the groups [difference in mean change 0.02, 95% confidence interval -2.04, 2.08, P = 0.98]. There were no significant changes over time in self-rated health in either group. At follow-up, participants at increased risk (n = 153) were more likely to have recent changes to behaviour and they had stronger intentions to make changes to diet (P = 0.001), physical activity (P = 0.006) and to seek further information in the future than those at population risk (n = 300; P assessment for familial risk of chronic diseases may be undertaken in primary care without causing anxiety or reducing self-rated health. Patient responses to family history risk assessment may inform promotion of preventive management strategies. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Engineering measures and risk assessment against fault displacement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narabayashi, Tadashi; Okamoto, Koji; Dodo, Takashi; Kamiya, Masanobu

2017-01-01

A special committee on 'assessment on fault activities and engineering risk' was established at the Japan Atomic Energy Society. With a participation of the Japan Society of Maintenology, a study group on nuclear safety regulations was established at the Japan Society of Maintenology, and this theme has been examined. Among the technics for evaluating the effects of fault displacement on nuclear facilities, the concept of application of the safety margin evaluation method is shown. By applying this method, it is possible to evaluate nuclear safety against fault displacement, and it is also possible to obtain risk information such as the conditions of facilities and safety functions (retention or loss) as well as the safety margin against core damage, including the event exceeding prediction. Thus, it is possible to verify the effectiveness of accident management and to make decisions for further countermeasures to reduce risk through using the obtained risk information. The countermeasures prepared for large scale damage can also be effectively utilized. It is necessary not only the fault displacement targeted in this paper, but also the results of risk assessment obtained by safety margin assessment etc. are reflected on the improvement of accident management at the site, education and training, and assumption of various events and desk training, and are linked to safety improvement. Efforts for encouraging these actions are also required. (A.O.)

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Exploring the Life Course Perspective in Maternal and Child Health through Community-Based Participatory Focus Groups: Social Risks Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Salinas-Miranda, Abraham A; King, Lindsey M; Salihu, Hamisu M; Berry, Estrellita; Austin, Deborah; Nash, Susan; Scarborough, Kenneth; Best, Evangeline; Cox, Lillian; King, Georgette; Hepburn, Carrie; Burpee, Conchita; Richardson, Eugene; Ducket, Marlo; Briscoe, Richard; Baldwin, Julie

2017-01-01

Little is known about the patterns of risk factors experienced by communities of color and how diverse community contexts shape the health trajectory of women from the early childhood period to the time of their pregnancies. Thus, we conducted a focus group study to identify social risks over the life course that contribute to maternal and child health from the perspective of community members residing in low income urban areas. Ten community-based participatory focus groups were conducted with residents from selected communities in Tampa, Florida, from September to November 2013. We used the life course perspective to illuminate and explain the experiences reported by the interviewees. A total of 78 residents participated in the focus groups. Children and adolescents' health risks were childhood obesity, lack of physical activity, and low self-esteem. Women's health risks were low self-esteem, low educational level, low health literacy, inadequate parenting skills, and financial problems. Risks during pregnancy included stress, low self-esteem, inadequate eating patterns, lack of physical activity, healthcare issues, lack of social support, and lack of father involvement during pregnancy. Multiple risk factors contribute to maternal and child health in low income communities in Tampa Bay. The intersection of risk factors in different life periods suggest possible pathways, cumulative, and latent effects, which must be considered in future longitudinal studies and when developing effective maternal and child health programs and policies.

Risk assessment of transitional economies by multivariate and multicriteria approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomić-Plazibat Neli

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This article assesses country-risk of sixteen Central, Baltic and South-East European transition countries, for 2005 and 2007, using multivariate cluster analysis. It was aided by the appropriate ANOVA (analysis of variance testing and the multicriteria PROMETHEE method. The combination of methods makes for more accurate and efficient country-risk assessment. Country risk classifications and ratings involve evaluating the performance of countries while considering their economic and socio-political characteristics. The purpose of the article is to classify, and then find the comparative position of each individual country in the group of analyzed countries, in order to find out to which extent development of market economy and democratic society has been achieved.

Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-06-01

The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunyazova A.O.

2018-04-01

Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

Health Risk Assessment on Hazardous Ingredients in Household Deodorizing Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minjin Lee

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The inhalation of a water aerosol from a humidifier containing disinfectants has led to serious lung injuries in Korea. To promote the safe use of products, the Korean government enacted regulations on the chemicals in various consumer products that could have adverse health effects. Given the concern over the potential health risks associated with the hazardous ingredients in deodorizing consumer products, 17 ingredients were analyzed and assessed according to their health risk on 3 groups by the application type in 47 deodorizing products. The risk assessment study followed a stepwise procedure (e.g., collecting toxicological information, hazard identification/exposure assessment, and screening and detailed assessment for inhalation and dermal routes. The worst-case scenario and maximum concentration determined by the product purpose and application type were used as the screening assessment. In a detailed assessment, the 75th exposure factor values were used to estimate the assumed reasonable exposure to ingredients. The exposed concentrations of seven ingredients were calculated. Due to limitation of toxicity information, butylated hydroxyl toluene for a consumer’s exposure via the dermal route only was conducted for a detailed assessment. This study showed that the assessed ingredients have no health risks at their maximum concentrations in deodorizing products. This approach can be used to establish guidelines for ingredients that may pose inhalation and dermal hazards.

Health Risk Assessment on Hazardous Ingredients in Household Deodorizing Products

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Minjin; Kim, Joo-Hyon; Lee, Daeyeop; Kim, Jaewoo; Lim, Hyunwoo; Seo, Jungkwan; Park, Young-Kwon

2018-01-01

The inhalation of a water aerosol from a humidifier containing disinfectants has led to serious lung injuries in Korea. To promote the safe use of products, the Korean government enacted regulations on the chemicals in various consumer products that could have adverse health effects. Given the concern over the potential health risks associated with the hazardous ingredients in deodorizing consumer products, 17 ingredients were analyzed and assessed according to their health risk on 3 groups by the application type in 47 deodorizing products. The risk assessment study followed a stepwise procedure (e.g., collecting toxicological information, hazard identification/exposure assessment, and screening and detailed assessment for inhalation and dermal routes). The worst-case scenario and maximum concentration determined by the product purpose and application type were used as the screening assessment. In a detailed assessment, the 75th exposure factor values were used to estimate the assumed reasonable exposure to ingredients. The exposed concentrations of seven ingredients were calculated. Due to limitation of toxicity information, butylated hydroxyl toluene for a consumer’s exposure via the dermal route only was conducted for a detailed assessment. This study showed that the assessed ingredients have no health risks at their maximum concentrations in deodorizing products. This approach can be used to establish guidelines for ingredients that may pose inhalation and dermal hazards. PMID:29652814

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Rausand, Marvin

2011-01-01

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

Strategy for distribution of influenza vaccine to high-risk groups and children.

Science.gov (United States)

Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth

2005-02-15

Despite evidence that vaccinating schoolchildren against influenza is effective in limiting community-level transmission, the United States has had a long-standing government strategy of recommending that vaccine be concentrated primarily in high-risk groups and distributed to those people who keep the health system and social infrastructure operating. Because of this year's influenza vaccine shortage, a plan was enacted to distribute the limited vaccine stock to these groups first. This vaccination strategy, based on direct protection of those most at risk, has not been very effective in reducing influenza morbidity and mortality. Although it is too late to make changes this year, the current influenza vaccine crisis affords the opportunity to examine an alternative for future years. The alternative plan, supported by mathematical models and influenza field studies, would be to concentrate vaccine in schoolchildren, the population group most responsible for transmission, while also covering the reachable high-risk groups, who would also receive considerable indirect protection. In conjunction with a plan to ensure an adequate vaccine supply, this alternative influenza vaccination strategy would help control interpandemic influenza and be instrumental in preparing for pandemic influenza. The effectiveness of the alternative plan could be assessed through nationwide community studies.

The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

2004-01-01

This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Remedial investigation report on waste area grouping 5 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Volume 4, Appendix C, Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-09-01

Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 5 is part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and is located on the United States Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation (DOE-ORR). The site lies southeast of Haw Ridge in Melton Valley and comprises approximately 32 ha (80 ac) [12 ha (30 ac) of forested area and the balance in grassed fields]. Waste Area Grouping 5 consists of several contaminant source areas for the disposal of low-level radioactive, transuranic (TRU), and fissile wastes (1959 to 1973) as well as inorganic and organic chemical wastes. Wastes were buried in trenches and auger holes. Radionuclides from buried wastes are being transported by shallow groundwater to Melton Branch and White Oak Creek. Different chemicals of potential concern (COPCs) were identified (e.g., cesium-137, strontium-90, radium-226, thorium-228, etc.); other constituents and chemicals, such as vinyl chloride, bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate, trichloroethene, were also identified as COPCs. Based on the results of this assessment contaminants of concern (COCs) were subsequently identified. The objectives of the WAG 5 Baseline Human Health Risk Assessment (BHHRA) are to document the potential health hazards (i.e., risks) that may result from contaminants on or released from the site and provide information necessary for reaching informed remedial decisions. As part of the DOE-Oak Ridge Operations (ORO), ORNL and its associated waste/contamination sites fall under the auspices of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), also known as Superfund under the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA). The results of the BHHRA will (1) document and evaluate risks to human health, (2) help determine the need for remedial action, (3) determine chemical concentrations protective of current and future human receptors, and (4) help select and compare various remedial alternatives.

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Hrdová, Edita

2012-01-01

This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

[Fall risk assessment and knee extensor muscle activity in elderly people].

Science.gov (United States)

Oya, Yukiko; Nakamura, Masumi; Tabata, Emi; Morizono, Ryo; Mori, Sachiko; Kimuro, Yukari; Horikawa, Etsuo

2008-05-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze relationships between the history of falls, tripping, sway, and knee extensor muscle strengths as a tool for fall risk assessment in elderly people. We examined effective fall prevention measures. We investigated 102 elderly volunteers in the community. The subjects were classified according to history of falls, tripping, sway and 5 performance tests conducted to assess fall risk including Timed up-and-go test (TUG), Functional Reach test (FR), Hand grip and Reaction time (RT). In addition, the time serial data of the knee extensor muscle strength were acquired using a hand-held dynamometer. In comparison to the non-faller group, the faller group showed a significantly higher incident rate of tripping and sway. A frequency analysis using the Maximum Entropy Method revealed that the fallers group showed lower peak frequency (p=0.025). Also, the slope of the logarithmical spectrum was less steep in the fallers group (p=0.035). Also results from analysis of the peak force latency from the beginning of measurement to 50%, 80%, and 100% muscle strength, also showed that the faller group took more time for maximal voluntary contraction. The frequency analysis of the time series date of peak force latency of knee extensor muscle strength revealed that the muscle activity differs in faller compared to non-fallers. This study suggested that knee extensor muscle isometric performance could possibly be used as a new tool for fall risk assessment. We concluded that exercises to raise maximal muscle strength and muscle response speed are useful for the prevention of falls.

HTGR accident and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

1982-01-01

This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Risk assessment and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisk, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

Risk assessment and the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1988-01-01

A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

Science.gov (United States)

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, K.C.

1992-01-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

1992-07-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

Cyber security risk assessment for SCADA and DCS networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ralston, P A S; Graham, J H; Hieb, J L

2007-10-01

The growing dependence of critical infrastructures and industrial automation on interconnected physical and cyber-based control systems has resulted in a growing and previously unforeseen cyber security threat to supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and distributed control systems (DCSs). It is critical that engineers and managers understand these issues and know how to locate the information they need. This paper provides a broad overview of cyber security and risk assessment for SCADA and DCS, introduces the main industry organizations and government groups working in this area, and gives a comprehensive review of the literature to date. Major concepts related to the risk assessment methods are introduced with references cited for more detail. Included are risk assessment methods such as HHM, IIM, and RFRM which have been applied successfully to SCADA systems with many interdependencies and have highlighted the need for quantifiable metrics. Presented in broad terms is probability risk analysis (PRA) which includes methods such as FTA, ETA, and FEMA. The paper concludes with a general discussion of two recent methods (one based on compromise graphs and one on augmented vulnerability trees) that quantitatively determine the probability of an attack, the impact of the attack, and the reduction in risk associated with a particular countermeasure.

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

OpenAIRE

Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

2017-01-01

The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-04-01

The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Părăian Mihaela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

World-wide risk assessment of the transportation of radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ericsson, A.M.; Elert, M.

1983-01-01

The aim of the project reported in this paper is to develop the means and methods for a risk analysis of the transportation of radioactive materials throughout the world. The project was initiated by the Standing Advisory Group on the Safe Transport of Radioactive Materials (SAGSTRAM) of the IAEA. In 1979 the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the IAEA signed an agreement on the development of a model for calculation of the transport risk. Member States of the IAEA are invited to use the model for a risk assessment of the transportation of radioactive materials in their own country. These assessments will be collected and analyzed and a world-wide risk assessment performed. The IAEA has the overall responsibility for the project and administers it. Sweden manages the project and has performed the applied research with the assistance of research support groups which have supplied data and analyses and performed some other parts of the project. An Oversight Committee with participants from eight Member States has reviewed the progress and has given valuable recommendations. It was important that the model had the sophistication and flexibility required for its use by all Member States but still was easy to handle. The risk calculations are performed by the computer code INTERTRAN which is based on the American computer code RADTRAN II developed by Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM. The methodology of the RADTRAN II as well as data and format of the input and output was changed to make the code more internationally oriented. 2 references

Automated Risk Assessment for School Violence: a Pilot Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Barzman, Drew; Ni, Yizhao; Griffey, Marcus; Bachtel, Alycia; Lin, Kenneth; Jackson, Hannah; Sorter, Michael; DelBello, Melissa

2018-05-01

School violence has increased over the past ten years. This study evaluated students using a more standard and sensitive method to help identify students who are at high risk for school violence. 103 participants were recruited through Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center (CCHMC) from psychiatry outpatient clinics, the inpatient units, and the emergency department. Participants (ages 12-18) were active students in 74 traditional schools (i.e. non-online education). Collateral information was gathered from guardians before participants were evaluated. School risk evaluations were performed with each participant, and audio recordings from the evaluations were later transcribed and manually annotated. The BRACHA (School Version) and the School Safety Scale (SSS), both 14-item scales, were used. A template of open-ended questions was also used. This analysis included 103 participants who were recruited from 74 different schools. Of the 103 students evaluated, 55 were found to be moderate to high risk and 48 were found to be low risk based on the paper risk assessments including the BRACHA and SSS. Both the BRACHA and the SSS were highly correlated with risk of violence to others (Pearson correlations>0.82). There were significant differences in BRACHA and SSS total scores between low risk and high risk to others groups (p-values machine learning algorithm achieved an AUC of 91.02% when using the interview content to predict risk of school violence, and the AUC increased to 91.45% when demographic and socioeconomic data were added. Our study indicates that the BRACHA and SSS are clinically useful for assessing risk for school violence. The machine learning algorithm was highly accurate in assessing school violence risk.

Novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takeshi Yagyu

Full Text Available Patients with acute heart failure (AHF show various clinical courses during hospitalization. We aimed to identify time course predictors of in-hospital mortality and to establish a sequentially assessable risk model.We enrolled 1,035 consecutive AHF patients into derivation (n = 597 and validation (n = 438 cohorts. For risk assessments at admission, we utilized Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF risk scores. We examined significant predictors of in-hospital mortality from 11 variables obtained during hospitalization and developed a risk stratification model using multiple logistic regression analysis. Across both cohorts, 86 patients (8.3% died during hospitalization. Using backward stepwise selection, we identified five time-course predictors: catecholamine administration, minimum platelet concentration, maximum blood urea nitrogen, total bilirubin, and C-reactive protein levels; and established a time course risk score that could sequentially assess a patient's risk status. The addition of a time course risk score improved the discriminative ability of the GWTG-HF risk score (c-statistics in derivation and validation cohorts: 0.776 to 0.888 [p = 0.002] and 0.806 to 0.902 [p<0.001], respectively. A calibration plot revealed a good relationship between observed and predicted in-hospital mortalities in both cohorts (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistics: 6.049 [p = 0.642] and 5.993 [p = 0.648], respectively. In each group of initial low-intermediate risk (GWTG-HF risk score <47 and initial high risk (GWTG-HF risk score ≥47, in-hospital mortality was about 6- to 9-fold higher in the high time course risk score group than in the low-intermediate time course risk score group (initial low-intermediate risk group: 20.3% versus 2.2% [p<0.001], initial high risk group: 57.6% versus 8.5% [p<0.001].A time course assessment related to in-hospital mortality during the hospitalization of AHF patients can clearly categorize a patient's on

Ionizing radiation risk assessment, BEIR IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-10-01

This report of the Subpanel discusses the potential impact on Federal agencies and indicates individual risk factors that could be used by them in risk assessment. The approach used in this CIRRPC report was to consider the risk factors presented in BEIR IV for each radionuclide (or group radioelements) and to make some judgments regarding their validity and/or the uncertainties involved. The coverage of Radon-222 and its progeny dominated the BEIR IV report and this Subpanel felt is was proper to devote more attention to this radionuclide family. This risk factor presented in BEIR IV for radon is 350 cancer deaths per million person-working level months (WLM) of exposure for a lifetime. There is a range of opinions on the conversion from WLM to absorbed dose. As discussed in the text, the use of the WLM concept makes it difficult or infeasible to compare the risk factor for radon with that of other radionuclides which are based on organ dose. This report also includes a discussion of certain fundamental scientific and operational issues that may have decisive effect upon risk factor selection. These adjunct items are dealt with under separate headings and include discussions of threshold dose considerations, extrapolation to low doses, and age at exposure

Need assessment for HIV/AIDS Education: The level of knowledge about transmission in some risk groups in Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozcebe, H.

2002-01-01

Every year, the number of HIV/AIDS cases increases twice as much as the year before in Turkey. The authors anticipate that the actual numbers of HIV/AIDS cases in Turkey are higher than the number of cases diagnosed and reported. This review summarizes the results of some previous studies that were conducted among various risk groups, such as high school and university students, barbers, hair dressers, nurses, pharmacists and doctors, men and women engaged in sex trade and security workers in different regions of country. The responses of participants to similar questions of studies on the transmission of HIV/AIDS were evaluated in this review. The studies that have been conducted among different risk groups in different regions have shown that in spite of low prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Turkey, many risk groups still do not have adequate or correct information on the prevalence and transmission of disease. Effective and extensive health education on HIV/AIDS and the practice of healthy lifestyle would change the epidemiology of the disease in Turkey. (author)

Chlorine transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

1977-02-01

An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

Risk assessment in maritime transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

2001-01-01

A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

Framework for ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

1992-02-01

Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Managing the unmanageable: risk assessment and risk management in contemporary professional practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Raven, J; Rix, P

1999-07-01

This study sets out to investigate the theories and practices of risk assessment and management in the context of contemporary mental health practice. Although risk assessment and management policies are well established for those working in the field of community mental health care, there are noticeable anomalies and regional variations, in the criteria, procedures and decision-making strategies used. Focus group taped interviews were conducted with over 100 mental health professionals in one NHS Trust. These were compared with an extensive literature review on the topic. The main theme to emerge was lack of resources, which included time and staff in the context of a changing and increasing workload. Another important theme was the lack of access to centralized and accurate information about mental health service provision. It is essential that professionals, clients, their families and the public feel confident in professional judgements and practices to avoid a 'back to the asylum' lobby, for the care and treatment of seriously mentally ill individuals.

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

2016-12-01

A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

US DOE-EM On-Site Disposal Cell Working Group - Fostering Communication On Performance Assessment Challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seitz, Roger R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States); Suttora, Linda C. [U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Site Restoration, Germantown, MD (United States); Phifer, Mark [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States)

2014-03-01

On-site disposal cells are in use and being considered at several U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) sites as the final disposition for large amounts of waste associated with cleanup of contaminated areas and facilities. These facilities are typically developed with regulatory oversight from States and/or the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) in addition to USDOE. The facilities are developed to meet design standards for disposal of hazardous waste as well as the USDOE performance based standards for disposal of radioactive waste. The involvement of multiple and different regulators for facilities across separate sites has resulted in some differences in expectations for performance assessments and risk assessments (PA/RA) that are developed for the disposal facilities. The USDOE-EM Office of Site Restoration formed a working group to foster improved communication and sharing of information for personnel associated with these Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) disposal cells and work towards more consistent assumptions, as appropriate, for technical and policy considerations related to performance and risk assessments in support of a Record of Decision and Disposal Authorization Statement. The working group holds teleconferences, as needed, focusing on specific topics of interest. The topics addressed to date include an assessment of the assumptions used for performance assessments and risk assessments (PA/RAs) for on-site disposal cells, requirements and assumptions related to assessment of inadvertent intrusion, DOE Manual 435.1-1 requirements, and approaches for consideration of the long-term performance of liners and covers in the context of PAs. The working group has improved communication among the staff and oversight personnel responsible for onsite disposal cells and has provided a forum to identify and resolve common concerns.

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana G. Feoktistova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

[Risk assessment of work-related stress: the case of a public administration].

Science.gov (United States)

Loi, Michela; Bellò, Benedetta; Mattana, Veronica

2015-01-01

The paper describes a case study of work related stress assessment in a public administration, based on an objective methodology (Romano, 2009). The Ispes1 forms (2010) have been used to perform the assessment. They have been filled during some focus group in which 45 workers have been involved, divided into 7 homogeneous groups relying on their department, back-office vs front-office typology of work and the office collocation. According to the Grounded Theory perspective, through the content analysis three further risk factors arose, comparing to the Ispesl forms, such as: (a) the quality of communication, (b) the relationship among and with leaders and colleagues, (c) the presence of discriminatory behaviours. Hence, on the basis of the results, mostly for a deeper analysis of work related stress assessment in a public administration, we suggest to consider these further risk factors.

Impact of sickle cell trait on the thrombotic risk associated with non-O blood groups in northern Nigeria.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Sagir G; Kagu, Modu B; Ibrahim, Umma A; Bukar, Audu A

2015-10-01

The non-O blood group is an established risk factor for deep vein thrombosis (DVT), while controversy surrounds the role of sickle cell trait (SCT) as a risk factor for DVT. We hypothesised that if SCT is a risk factor for DVT, individuals with non-O blood groups and SCT (Hb AS) would have a higher risk of DVT than their counterparts with non-O blood groups and normal haemoglobin phenotype (Hb AA). We retrospectively analysed the prevalence of SCT and non-O blood groups among 148 DVT patients with control subjects in order to determine the role of SCT as a risk factor for DVT and its impact on the risk of DVT among patients with non-O blood groups. In comparison with control subjects, DVT patients had significantly higher prevalences of SCT (35.1% vs 27.7%, p=0.04) and non-O blood groups (68.9% vs 45.9%, p=0.02). The odds ratios for DVT due to SCT, non-O blood groups with normal Hb phenotype (Hb AA) and non-O blood groups with SCT (Hb AS) were 1.3, 2.4 and 3.5, respectively. These results suggest that SCT by itself is a weak risk factor for DVT but it has the potential of escalating the DVT risk among patients with non-O blood groups. The combined effects of elevated clotting factors (non-O group effect) and increased clotting factor activation (SCT effect) were responsible for the escalated DVT risk among patients with co-inheritance of non-O blood groups and SCT. Co-inheritance of SCT and non-O blood group is, therefore, an important mixed risk factor for DVT. This should be taken into account when assessing DVT risk profiles of patients in Africa and other parts of the world where the SCT is prevalent.

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Assessment of technical risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

1978-01-01

The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Use of nonstatistical techniques for pattern recognition to detect risk groups among liquidators of the Chernobyl NPP accident aftereffects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blinov, N.N.; Guslistyj, V.P.; Misyurev, A.V.; Novitskaya, N.N.; Snigireva, G.P.

1993-01-01

Attempt of using of the nonstatistical techniques for pattern recognition to detect the risk groups among liquidators of the Chernobyl NPP accident aftereffects was described. 14 hematologic, biochemical and biophysical blood serum parameters of the group of liquidators of the Chernobyl NPP accident impact as well as the group of donors free of any radiation dose (controlled group) were taken as the diagnostic parameters. Modification of the nonstatistical techniques for pattern recognition based on the assessment calculations were used. The patients were divided into risk group at the truth ∼ 80%

Proposal for the testing of a tool for assessing the risk of dehydration in the elderly patient.

Science.gov (United States)

Bulgarelli, Ketty

2015-09-09

Dehydration is now the most common fluid and electrolyte disorder in older people. Because it is often associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality, it requires careful control and prevention in the context of a thorough primary care. The main risk factor for dehydration was the low intake of water by mouth for several reasons, such as lack of autonomy, altered mental status, decreased sensation of thirst, social and environmental problems. To this may be added an increase in fluid loss caused by fever, vomiting, diarrhoea, bleeding etc., the use of diuretics or laxatives and the onset of diseases that induce an increase in the loss of urine (e.g. diabetes). This paper aims to locate a tool for assessing the risk among those reported in the literature that is easy to use for the nurse and to experiment with it on a sample of patients. An analysis of the literature showed the reliability of an instrument for assessing the risk of dehydration by the name of "Dehydration Risk Appraisal Checklist." In order to verify its usefulness in identifying the risk of dehydration, 2 groups of elderly persons at the OU Geriatrics and long-term care unit of the Azienda USL of Piacenza and the OU complex Geriatric Clinic of the University Hospital of Parma were investigated. Patients in both groups were assessed on admission by the assessment scale MNA (Mini Nutritional Assessment) and by the sheet of quantitative evaluation of the meal consumed. One group was considered as the "control group". Patients belonging to the other group, which was regarded as the "experimental group", in addition to the two above-mentioned instruments, were also assessed by the "Dehydration risk appraisal checklist". In both groups, the presence or absence of four indicators of dehydration measured at the time of and immediately before discharge was then detected. In the presence of each indicator of dehydration one point was awarded for a comprehensive evaluation. The data collected were

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-11-15

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Risk assessment - black art or science?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, G.

1988-01-01

Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

Can smoking initiation contexts predict how adult Aboriginal smokers assess their smoking risks? A cross-sectional study using the ‘Smoking Risk Assessment Target’

Science.gov (United States)

Gould, Gillian Sandra; Watt, Kerrianne; West, Robert; Cadet-James, Yvonne; Clough, Alan R

2016-01-01

Objectives Smoking prevalence is slow to reduce among Indigenous Australians of reproductive age. We analysed the relationships between age of smoking initiation, recalled initiation influences and self-assessment of smoking risks in Aboriginal smokers. Design, setting and participants A community-based cross-sectional survey of Aboriginal smokers aged 18–45 years (N=121; 58 men) was undertaken, using single-item measures. The Smoking Risk Assessment Target (SRAT) as the primary outcome measure enabled self-assessment of smoking risks from 12 options, recategorised into 3 groups. Participants recalled influences on their smoking initiation. Multinomial logistic regression modelling included age, gender, strength of urges to smoke, age at initiation (regular uptake) and statistically significant initiation influences on χ2 tests (‘to be cool’, alcohol and cannabis). Results Frequent initiation influences included friends (74%; SD 0.44), family (57%; SD 0.5) and alcohol (40%; SD 0.49). 54% (n=65) of smokers had the highest risk perception on the SRAT, selected by those who cared about the smoking risks and intended to quit soon. On multivariate analyses, compared with the highest level of SRAT, male gender, lower age of uptake and strong urges to smoke were significantly associated with the lowest level of SRAT, selected by those who refuted risks or thought they could not quit. Lower age of uptake and alcohol were associated with mid-level of SRAT, selected by those who cared about smoking risks, but did not consider quitting as a priority. Conclusions Characteristics of smoking initiation in youth may have far-reaching associations with how smoking risks are assessed by adults of reproductive age, and their intentions to quit smoking. Becoming a regular smoker at under the age of 16 years, and influences of alcohol on smoking uptake, were inversely associated with high-level assessment of smoking risks and intention to quit in regional Aboriginal smokers

Concerning ethical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeckle, F.

1991-01-01

After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

Ecological risk assessment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

2007-01-01

Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

Bruce NGS B risk assessment (BBRA) peer review process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaasalainen, S.; Crocker, W.P.; Webb, W.A.

2001-01-01

Risk-informed decision making is considered an effective approach to managing the risk of nuclear power plant operation in a competitive market. Hence, increased reliance on the station probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) to provide risk perspective inputs is inevitable. With increased reliance on the PRAs it is imperative that PRAs have the characteristics necessary to provide the required information. Recognizing the increased requirements on nuclear power plant PRAs the nuclear industry in the United States has expended significant effort over the past few years defining the required characteristics of a PRA for various applications. More recently several owners groups have drafted guidelines for PRA certification and several U.S. utilities have had their PRAs certified. During the year 2000 Ontario Power Generation, Nuclear (OPG,N) subjected the PRA of one of its stations to the U.S. style certification process. The PRA selected for this process was the Bruce B Risk Assessment (BBRA). BBRA was chosen for this process since it is the first OPG, N PRA to be used for risk-informed applications. However, the strengths of the BBRA identified from the certification process and the lessons learned are also largely applicable to the other OPG, N plant PRAs due to the use of similar methods and tools

Rational group decision making in risk situations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, M.H.

1987-01-01

Risk management has received increasing attention recently as methods of quantifying risk have been evolving. This is considered a legitimate tendency in the context of the entirety of risk evaluation which connotes both risk quantification and decisions making thereon. A risk-free society does not appear possible; neither could one have zero competing risks or cost versus benefit resulting out of a risk-abatement effort. What further complicates the risk-decision problem is that there exists more than a single decision maker, who claim their own interests associated with risk decision. Furthermore, their risk perceptions are not at all same that the threshold risk levels for a particular actions are varying. In this dissertation, a brief survey on existing action levels for various sort of risk situations including carcinogens, toxic chemicals, etc., is reported on, with emphasis on nuclear risk situation. A decision theoretic approach is then adopted in both individual and group-level risk management. For the purpose of exemplification, multiplicative utility theory is applied for nuclear power risk; attributes derived for this specific purpose are discussed

Risk assessment and the social response to nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otway, H.J.

1977-01-01

A theoretical framework for risk assessment studies is presented. Methodologies from various disciplines can be used within this framework to allow a scientific approach to the understanding of complex interactions between technological and social systems. A pilot application of an attitude-formation model to examine the underlying determinants of groups for and against nuclear power is summarized. (author)

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2001-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

Caries risk assessment in children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, S

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

2012-12-01

Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

Effect of e-learning program on risk assessment and pressure ulcer classification - A randomized study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bredesen, Ida Marie; Bjøro, Karen; Gunningberg, Lena; Hofoss, Dag

2016-05-01

Pressure ulcers (PUs) are a problem in health care. Staff competency is paramount to PU prevention. Education is essential to increase skills in pressure ulcer classification and risk assessment. Currently, no pressure ulcer learning programs are available in Norwegian. Develop and test an e-learning program for assessment of pressure ulcer risk and pressure ulcer classification. Forty-four nurses working in acute care hospital wards or nursing homes participated and were assigned randomly into two groups: an e-learning program group (intervention) and a traditional classroom lecture group (control). Data was collected immediately before and after training, and again after three months. The study was conducted at one nursing home and two hospitals between May and December 2012. Accuracy of risk assessment (five patient cases) and pressure ulcer classification (40 photos [normal skin, pressure ulcer categories I-IV] split in two sets) were measured by comparing nurse evaluations in each of the two groups to a pre-established standard based on ratings by experts in pressure ulcer classification and risk assessment. Inter-rater reliability was measured by exact percent agreement and multi-rater Fleiss kappa. A Mann-Whitney U test was used for continuous sum score variables. An e-learning program did not improve Braden subscale scoring. For pressure ulcer classification, however, the intervention group scored significantly higher than the control group on several of the categories in post-test immediately after training. However, after three months there were no significant differences in classification skills between the groups. An e-learning program appears to have a greater effect on the accuracy of pressure ulcer classification than classroom teaching in the short term. For proficiency in Braden scoring, no significant effect of educational methods on learning results was detected. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

Science.gov (United States)

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Assessment and management of cancer risks from radiological and chemical hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-01-01

A Joint Working Group was established in April 1995 by the President of the Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) and the Assistant Deputy Minister of the Health Protection Branch of Health Canada to examine the similarities, disparities and inconsistencies between the levels of risk considered acceptable for regulating ionizing radiation and those considered acceptable for regulating chemical and microbiological hazards. During the process of collecting, analysing and interpreting information, the Joint Working Group realized that its terms of reference as written presented a major difficulty because of the lack of consensus on acceptable levels of risk. Consequently it decided that the most reasonable way to proceed was to compare the risk assessment and management processes used to protect the public from radiation, chemicals and microbiological hazards. This report concentrates on the assessment and management of ionizing radiation and genotoxic chemicals (which both cause cancer by damaging the DNA in cells) and pays less attention to non-genotoxic effects and microbiological hazards. The report also examines public more than occupational exposures and exposures from man-made rather than naturally occurring agents. (author)

"The Dose Makes the Poison": Informing Consumers About the Scientific Risk Assessment of Food Additives.

Science.gov (United States)

Bearth, Angela; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Siegrist, Michael

2016-01-01

Intensive risk assessment is required before the approval of food additives. During this process, based on the toxicological principle of "the dose makes the poison,ˮ maximum usage doses are assessed. However, most consumers are not aware of these efforts to ensure the safety of food additives and are therefore sceptical, even though food additives bring certain benefits to consumers. This study investigated the effect of a short video, which explains the scientific risk assessment and regulation of food additives, on consumers' perceptions and acceptance of food additives. The primary goal of this study was to inform consumers and enable them to construct their own risk-benefit assessment and make informed decisions about food additives. The secondary goal was to investigate whether people have different perceptions of food additives of artificial (i.e., aspartame) or natural origin (i.e., steviolglycoside). To attain these research goals, an online experiment was conducted on 185 Swiss consumers. Participants were randomly assigned to either the experimental group, which was shown a video about the scientific risk assessment of food additives, or the control group, which was shown a video about a topic irrelevant to the study. After watching the video, the respondents knew significantly more, expressed more positive thoughts and feelings, had less risk perception, and more acceptance than prior to watching the video. Thus, it appears that informing consumers about complex food safety topics, such as the scientific risk assessment of food additives, is possible, and using a carefully developed information video is a successful strategy for informing consumers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

Vaccination rates among the general adult population and high-risk groups in the United States.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathy Annunziata

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In order to adequately assess the effectiveness of vaccination in helping to control vaccine-preventable infectious disease, it is important to identify the adherence and uptake of risk-based recommendations. METHODS: The current project includes data from five consecutive datasets of the National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS: 2007 through 2011. The NHWS is an annual, Internet-based health questionnaire, administered to a nationwide sample of adults (aged 18 or older which included items on vaccination history as well as high-risk group status. Vaccination rates and characteristics of vaccinees were reported descriptively. Logistic regressions were conducted to predict vaccination behavior from sociodemographics and risk-related variables. RESULTS: The influenza vaccination rate for all adults 18 years and older has increased significantly from 28.0% to 36.2% from 2007 to 2011 (ps<.05. Compared with those not at high risk (25.1%, all high-risk groups were vaccinated at a higher rate, from 36.8% (pregnant women to 69.7% (those with renal/kidney disease; however, considerable variability among high-risk groups was observed. Vaccination rates among high-risk groups for other vaccines varied considerably though all were below 50%, with the exception of immunocompromised respondents (57.5% for the hepatitis B vaccine and 52.5% for the pneumococcal vaccine and the elderly (50.4% for the pneumococcal. Multiple risk factors were associated with increased rate of vaccination for most vaccines. Significant racial/ethnic differences with influenza, hepatitis, and herpes zoster vaccination rates were also observed (ps<.05. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of influenza vaccination have increased over time. Rates varied by high-risk status, demographics, and vaccine. There was a pattern of modest vaccination rate increases for individuals with multiple risk factors. However, there were relatively low rates of vaccination for most risk-based recommendations

Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

Modeling for operational event risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

Science.gov (United States)

Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

2005-03-01

One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

The EPA's human exposure research program for assessing cumulative risk in communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D

2010-06-01

Communities are faced with challenges in identifying and prioritizing environmental issues, taking actions to reduce their exposures, and determining their effectiveness for reducing human health risks. Additional challenges include determining what scientific tools are available and most relevant, and understanding how to use those tools; given these barriers, community groups tend to rely more on risk perception than science. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and collaborators are developing and applying tools (models, data, methods) for enhancing cumulative risk assessments. The NERL's "Cumulative Communities Research Program" focuses on key science questions: (1) How to systematically identify and prioritize key chemical stressors within a given community?; (2) How to develop estimates of exposure to multiple stressors for individuals in epidemiologic studies?; and (3) What tools can be used to assess community-level distributions of exposures for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk reduction strategies? This paper provides community partners and scientific researchers with an understanding of the NERL research program and other efforts to address cumulative community risks; and key research needs and opportunities. Some initial findings include the following: (1) Many useful tools exist for components of risk assessment, but need to be developed collaboratively with end users and made more comprehensive and user-friendly for practical application; (2) Tools for quantifying cumulative risks and impact of community risk reduction activities are also needed; (3) More data are needed to assess community- and individual-level exposures, and to link exposure-related information with health effects; and (4) Additional research is needed to incorporate risk-modifying factors ("non-chemical stressors") into cumulative risk assessments. The products of this

Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birnbacher, D.

1991-01-01

Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2011-09-01

The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-01-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deriot, S.

1992-10-01

This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Fielder

2018-06-01

Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

The Association between ABO and Rh Blood Groups and Risk of Endometriosis in Iranian Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Malekzadeh, Farideh; Moini, Ashraf; Amirchaghmaghi, Elham; Daliri, Leila; Akhoond, Mohammad Reza; Talebi, Mehrak; Hosseini, Rihaneh

2018-06-01

Endometriosis is a common gynaecological disease that affects quality of life for women. Several studies have revealed that both environmental and genetic factors contribute to the development of endometriosis. The aim of this study was to investigate the distribution of ABO and Rh blood groups in Iranian women with endometriosis who presented to two referral infertility centers in Tehran, Iran. In this case-control study, women who referred to Royan Institute and Arash Women's Hospital for diagnostic laparoscopy between 2013 and 2014 were assessed. Based on the laparoscopy findings, we categorized the women into two groups: endometriosis and control (women without endometriosis and normal pelvis). Chi-square and logistic regression tests were used for data analysis. In this study, we assessed 433 women, of which 213 patients were assigned to the endometriosis group while the remaining 220 subjects comprised the control group. The most frequent ABO blood group was O (40.6%). The least frequent blood group was AB (4.8%). In terms of Rh blood group, Rh+ (90.1%) was more frequent than Rh- (9.9%). There was no significant correlation between ABO (P=0.091) and Rh (P=0.55) blood groups and risk of endometriosis. Also, there was no significant difference between the two groups with regards to the stage of endometriosis and distribution of ABO and Rh blood groups (P>0.05). Although the O blood group was less dominant in Iranian women with endometriosis, we observed no significant correlation between the risk of endometriosis and the ABO and Rh blood groups. Endometriosis severity was not correlated to any of these blood groups. Copyright© by Royan Institute. All rights reserved.

Which population groups are most unaware of CVD risks associated with sitting time?

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Mitch J; Gilson, Nicholas; Vandelanotte, Corneel

2014-08-01

Prolonged sitting is an emerging risk factor for poor health yet few studies have examined awareness of the risks associated with sitting behaviours. This study identifies the population subgroups with the highest levels of unawareness regarding the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks associated with sitting behaviours. Adults (n=1256) living in Queensland, Australia completed a telephone-based survey in 2011, analysis conducted in 2013. The survey assessed participant's socio-demographic characteristics, physical activity, sitting behaviours and awareness of CVD risks associated with three sitting behaviours: 1) sitting for prolonged periods, 2), sitting for prolonged periods whilst also engaging in regular physical activity, and 3) breaking up periods of prolonged sitting with short activity breaks. Population sub-groups with the highest levels of unawareness were identified based on socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics using signal detection analysis. Unawareness ranged from 23.3% to 67.0%. Age was the most important variable in differentiating awareness levels; younger adults had higher levels of unawareness. Body mass index, physical activity, TV viewing, employment status and time spent at work also identified population sub-groups. Unawareness of CVD risk for prolonged sitting was moderately high overall. Younger adults had high levels of unawareness on all of the outcomes examined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors associated with repetition of self-harm in black and minority ethnic (BME) groups: a multi-centre cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Jayne; Steeg, Sarah; Webb, Roger; Stewart, Suzanne L K; Applegate, Eve; Hawton, Keith; Bergen, Helen; Waters, Keith; Kapur, Navneet

2013-06-01

Little information is available to inform clinical assessments on risk of self-harm repetition in ethnic minority groups. In a prospective cohort study, using data collected from six hospitals in England for self-harm presentations occurring between 2000 and 2007, we investigated risk factors for repeat self-harm in South Asian and Black people in comparison to Whites. During the study period, 751 South Asian, 468 Black and 15,705 White people presented with self-harm in the study centres. Repeat self-harm occurred in 4379 individuals, which included 229 suicides (with eight of these fatalities being in the ethnic minority groups). The risk ratios for repetition in the South Asian and Black groups compared to the White group were 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.7 and 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-0.8, respectively. Risk factors for repetition were similar across all three groups, although excess risk versus Whites was seen in Black people presenting with mental health symptoms, and South Asian people reporting alcohol use and not having a partner. Additional modelling of repeat self-harm count data showed that alcohol misuse was especially strongly linked with multiple repetitions in both BME groups. Ethnicity was not recorded in a third of cases which may introduce selection bias. Differences may exist due to cultural diversity within the broad ethnic groups. Known social and psychological features that infer risk were present in South Asian and Black people who repeated self-harm. Clinical assessment in these ethnic groups should ensure recognition and treatment of mental illness and alcohol misuse. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The NUREG-1150 probabilistic risk assessment for the Grand Gulf nuclear station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, T.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.

1992-01-01

This paper summarizes the findings of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station performed in support of NUREG-1150. The emphasis is on the 'back-end' analyses, that is, the acident progression, source term, consequence analsyes, and risk results obtained when the results of these analyses are combined with the accident frequency analysis. The offsite risk from internal initiating events was found to be quite low, both with respect to the safety goals and to the other plants analyzed in NUREG-1150. The offsite risk is dominated by short-term station blackout plant damage states. The long-term blackout group and the anticiptated transients without scram (ATWS) group contribute considerably less to risk. Transients in which the power conversion system is unavailable are very minor contributors to risk. The low values for risk can be attributed to low core damage frequency, good emergency response, and plant features that reduce the potential source term. (orig.)

Low bone mass prevalence and osteoporosis risk factor assessment in African American Wisconsin women.

Science.gov (United States)

Kidambi, Srividya; Partington, Susan; Binkley, Neil

2005-11-01

Post-menopausal osteoporosis is seen in all racial groups. With the increasing population and longevity of minority groups, osteoporosis is becoming an important health concern. Data regarding risk factors for, and prevalence of, low bone mass and awareness of osteoporosis risk in African American (AA) women are limited. This article evaluates the risk factors for, and prevalence of, low bone mass in a population of urban AA women in Wisconsin and assesses this group's perceived risk for osteoporosis. One hundred fifty consecutive community-dwelling AA women > or = 45 years old from Milwaukee, Wis were asked to complete a questionnaire based on currently accepted osteoporosis risk factors. Additionally, their perception of osteoporosis risk was assessed using a Likert scale. All subjects underwent quantitative calcaneal ultrasound. Subject mean age was 54 +/- 7 years. Mean T- and Z-scores were 0.5 and 0.4, respectively. Applying World Health Organization criteria, osteopenia (bone mineral density T-score 2 children), postmenopausal state, and current smoking were associated with lower calcaneal bone mass. Higher education and presence of diabetes were associated with a higher bone mass. Only 25% of the women surveyed thought they were at moderate to high risk for osteoporosis. Low bone mass was present in 33% of these AA women despite their relative young age. Many AA women do not perceive osteoporosis as a health risk. It is necessary to develop strategies to educate AA women regarding osteoporosis risk.

Mercury risk assessment combining internal and external exposure methods for a population living near a municipal solid waste incinerator.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Chunyan; Xie, Han; Ye, Xuejie; Zhang, Haoran; Liu, Maodian; Tong, Yindong; Ou, Langbo; Yuan, Wen; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

2016-12-01

Risk assessments for human health have been conducted for municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) in many western countries, whereas only a few risk assessments have been performed for MSWIs in developing countries such as China where the use of waste incineration is increasing rapidly. To assess the mercury exposure risks of a population living near the largest MSWI in South China, we combined internal exposure and external exposure assessment with an individual-specific questionnaire. The mercury concentrations in air, soil, and locally collected food around the MSWI were assessed. The total mercury (T-Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) of 447 blood samples from a control group, residential exposure group, and MSWI workers were measured. The internal and external exposures of the subject population were analyzed. Significant difference in MeHg concentrations was observed between the control group and the exposed group, between the control group and the MSWI workers, and between the exposed group and the MSWI workers (median levels: 0.70 μg/L, 0.81 μg/L, and 1.02 μg/L for the control group, exposed group, and MSWI workers, respectively). The MeHg/T-Hg ratio was 0.51 ± 0.19, 0.59 ± 0.17 and 0.58 ± 0.25, respectively. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that MeHg concentrations were positively correlated with the gaseous mercury in the air. Combining internal and external exposure assessment showed that the direct contribution of MSWI emissions was minor compared with the dietary contribution. The external and internal exposures were well matched with each other. This study also suggested that an integrated method combining internal and external exposure assessment with an individual-specific questionnaire is feasible to assess the risks for a population living near a MSWI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogata, Hiromitsu

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

Sovereign default risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

2013-01-01

We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

Social aspects of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

1977-01-01

Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

Quantitative assessment of exposure and risk for three carcinogenics in long-standing pollution sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wichmann, H.E.; Wuppertal Univ.; Ihme, W.; Mekel, O.C.L.; Wuppertal Univ.

1993-01-01

The project attempts a quantitative assessment of risks for three carcinogenics that are common in sites of long-standing pollution. Benzo(a)pyrene stands for the group of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, cadmium for heavy metals, and benzene for volatile aromatic compounds. The report discusses the general fundamentals of exposure and risk assessment. The exposure model is described in detail and applied to the three test substances. (orig./MG) [de

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

1996-01-01

A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

1987-06-01

Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

Risk assessment for transport operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

1990-01-01

The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason Dunham

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

2014-01-01

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

A framework for cumulative risk assessment in the 21st century.

Science.gov (United States)

Moretto, Angelo; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Solomon, Keith R; Pastoor, Timothy P; Wilks, Martin F; Embry, Michelle R

2017-02-01

The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) has developed a framework to support a transition in the way in which information for chemical risk assessment is obtained and used (RISK21). The approach is based on detailed problem formulation, where exposure drives the data acquisition process in order to enable informed decision-making on human health safety as soon as sufficient evidence is available. Information is evaluated in a transparent and consistent way with the aim of optimizing available resources. In the context of risk assessment, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) poses additional problems and questions that can be addressed using the RISK21 approach. The focus in CRA to date has generally been on chemicals that have common mechanisms of action. Recently, concern has also been expressed about chemicals acting on multiple pathways that lead to a common health outcome, and non-chemical other conditions (non-chemical stressors) that can lead to or modify a common outcome. Acknowledging that CRAs, as described above, are more conceptually, methodologically and computationally complex than traditional single-stressor risk assessments, RISK21 further developed the framework for implementation of workable processes and procedures for conducting assessments of combined effects from exposure to multiple chemicals and non-chemical stressors. As part of the problem formulation process, this evidence-based framework allows the identification of the circumstances in which it is appropriate to conduct a CRA for a group of compounds. A tiered approach is then proposed, where additional chemical stressors and/or non-chemical modulating factors (ModFs) are considered sequentially. Criteria are provided to facilitate the decision on whether or not to include ModFs in the formal quantitative assessment, with the intention to help focus the use of available resources to have the greatest potential to protect public health.

Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

Dietary patterns, food groups, and rectal cancer risk in Whites and African-Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Christina Dawn; Satia, Jessie A; Adair, Linda S; Stevens, June; Galanko, Joseph; Keku, Temitope O; Sandler, Robert S

2009-05-01

Associations between individual foods and nutrients and colorectal cancer have been inconsistent, and few studies have examined associations between food, nutrients, dietary patterns, and rectal cancer. We examined the relationship between food groups and dietary patterns and risk for rectal cancer in non-Hispanic Whites and African-Americans. Data were from the North Carolina Colon Cancer Study-Phase II and included 1,520 Whites (720 cases, 800 controls) and 384 African-Americans (225 cases, 159 controls). Diet was assessed using the Diet History Questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Among Whites, non-whole grains and white potatoes were associated with elevated risk for rectal cancer whereas fruit, vegetables, dairy, fish, and poultry were associated with reduced risk. In African-Americans, high consumption of other fruit and added sugar suggested elevated risk. We identified three major dietary patterns in Whites and African-Americans. The high fat/meat/potatoes pattern was observed in both race groups but was only positively associated with risk in Whites (odds ratio, 1.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-3.15). The vegetable/fish/poultry and fruit/whole grain/dairy patterns in Whites had significant inverse associations with risk. In African-Americans, there was a positive dose-response for the fruit/vegetables pattern (P(trend) pattern (P(trend) dietary patterns with rectal cancer risk differ between Whites and African-Americans, highlighting the importance of examining diet and cancer relationships in racially diverse populations.

Lipid profiles and ischemic stroke risk: variations by sex within racial/ethnic groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Gezmu, Tefera; Schneider, Dona; Demissie, Kitaw; Lin, Yong; Giordano, Christine; Gizzi, Martin S

2014-01-01

Evidence implicates lipid abnormalities as important but modifiable risk factors for stroke. This study assesses whether hypercholesterolemia can be used to predict the risk for etiologic subtypes of ischemic stroke between sexes within racial/ethnic groups. Data elements related to stroke risk, diagnosis, and outcomes were abstracted from the medical records of 3,290 acute stroke admissions between 2006 and 2010 at a regional stroke center. Sex comparison within racial/ethnic groups revealed that South Asian and Hispanic men had a higher proportion of ischemic stroke than women, while the inverse was true for Whites and African Americans (P=0.0014). All women, except South Asian women, had higher mean plasma total cholesterol and higher blood circulating low-density lipoprotein levels (≥100 mg/dL) than men at the time of their admissions. The incidence of large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) was more common among women than men, except among Hispanics, where men tended to have higher incidences. A regression analysis that considered patients diagnosed with either LAA or small-artery occlusion etiologic subtype as the outcomes and high-density lipoproteins and triglycerides as predictors showed inconsistent associations between lipid profiles and the incidence of these subtypes between the sexes within racial/ethnic groups. In conclusion, our investigation suggests that women stroke patients may be at increased risk for stroke etiologic subtype LAA than men. Although the higher prevalence of stroke risk factors examined in this study predicts the increase in the incidence of the disease, lack of knowledge/awareness and lack of affordable treatments for stroke risk factors among women and immigrants/non-US-born subpopulations may explain the observed associations.

Oximeter-based autonomic state indicator algorithm for cardiovascular risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Grote, Ludger; Sommermeyer, Dirk; Zou, Ding; Eder, Derek N; Hedner, Jan

2011-02-01

Cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment is important in clinical practice. An autonomic state indicator (ASI) algorithm based on pulse oximetry was developed and validated for CV risk assessment. One hundred forty-eight sleep clinic patients (98 men, mean age 50 ± 13 years) underwent an overnight study using a novel photoplethysmographic sensor. CV risk was classified according to the European Society of Hypertension/European Society of Cardiology (ESH/ESC) risk factor matrix. Five signal components reflecting cardiac and vascular activity (pulse wave attenuation, pulse rate acceleration, pulse propagation time, respiration-related pulse oscillation, and oxygen desaturation) extracted from 99 randomly selected subjects were used to train the classification algorithm. The capacity of the algorithm for CV risk prediction was validated in 49 additional patients. Each signal component contributed independently to CV risk prediction. The sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm to distinguish high/low CV risk in the validation group were 80% and 77%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for high CV risk classification was 0.84. β-Blocker treatment was identified as an important factor for classification that was not in line with the ESH/ESC reference matrix. Signals derived from overnight oximetry recording provide a novel potential tool for CV risk classification. Prospective studies are warranted to establish the value of the ASI algorithm for prediction of outcome in CV disease.

Differences in conventional cardiovascular risk factors in two ethnic groups in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Garg, Priyanka Rani; Kabita, Salam; Singh, Huidrom Suraj; Saraswathy, Kallur Nava; Sinha, Ekata; Kalla, Aloke Kumar; Chongtham, Dhanaraj Singh

2012-01-01

Studies have been carried out at national and international levels to assess ethnic variations in the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases and their risk factors. However, ethnic variations in the contribution of various risk factors to complex diseases have been scarcely studied. Our study examined such variations in two ethnic groups in India, namely, Meiteis of Manipur (northeast India) and Aggarwals of Delhi (north India). Through random sampling, we selected 635 participants from the Meitei community and 181 Aggarwals from the Aggarwal Dharmarth Hospital, Delhi. Patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and hypertension were identified based on their recent medical diagnostic history. Anthropometric parameters such as height, weight, waist and hip circumferences along with physiological parameters (blood pressures, both systolic and diastolic) and biochemical parameter (lipid profile) were measured for all study participants. Patient parameters were available from the medical reports recorded when patients were first diagnosed. Among CAD individuals, the Aggarwals showed higher mean values of weight, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TC), low density lipoprotein (LDL), and very low density lipoprotein (VLDL) but had lower high density lipoprotein (HDL) levels than the Meiteis. The same trend for weight, BMI and lipid parameters could be seen among hypertensive individuals. In step-wise regression analysis, SBP, LDL and TG were found to significantly contribute to the risk for CAD in the Aggarwals; whereas in the Meiteis, SBP, VLDL, HDL, TC and LDL were found to significantly contribute to the risk for CAD. In hypertensive Aggarwal participants, SBP, DBP and waist-to-hip ratio were significant contributors for hypertension; whereas SBP, DBP, and height contributed significantly to risk for hypertension among the Meiteis. We found marked differences in conventional risk

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

Risk assessment research and technology assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

1991-01-01

The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

Dose and risk assessment approach for the Fernald CERCLA D ampersand D Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Throckmorton, J.D.; Clark, T.R.; Waligora, S.J. Jr.; Haaker, R.F.

1994-01-01

At the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) the uranium processing facilities used from the 1952 through 1989 are near or beyond their intended design life. These current conditions present an increasing probability for future releases of hazardous substances to the environment. To support a decision by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to remediate the buildings, a dose and risk assessment was performed to determine the extent of exposure that would be associated with the controlled decontamination and dismantlement (D ampersand D) of the Fernald facilities. A conceptual risk assessment model was developed, with exposure mechanisms and associated pathways for each potential receptor. The three receptor groups were defined as: the remediation workers, other on-site workers (those not performing D ampersand D), and off-site residents. For use in the conceptual model, an airborne source term was developed through process knowledge, other historical information and data, and air sample data from within the facilities. Individual and collective doses and risks were developed for each receptor and for each population group. The risk assessment demonstrated that all exposures resulting from the action would be within the acceptable DOE administrative control level of 2.0 rem per year for occupational workers and the acceptable EPA risk range from 10 -6 to 10 -4 for the general public

A field study comparing two methods of transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harmon, M.F.; Brey, R.R.; Gesell, T.F.; Oberg, S.G.

1996-01-01

RADTRAN 4 is a computer code used for; assessing risks associated with the transportation of nuclear materials. The code employs the common modeling practice of using default values for input variables to simplify the modeling of complex scenarios, thus producing conservative final risk determinations. To better address local public concerns it is of interest to quantify the introduced conservatism by taking a site-specific approach to radiation risk assessment. With RISKIND, incident-free and accident condition doses were calculated for two suburban population groups using both default input parameters; and site-specific values to describe population demographics of regions in Pocatello, Idaho, along the I-15 corridor. The use of site-specific parameters resulted in incident-free doses ranging from the same order of magnitude to one order of magnitude less than the doses calculated with default input parameters. Correcting accident condition doses for the age distribution of the populations and employing site-specific weather data resulted in doses 1.1 times lower than estimated using default input parameters. Dose-risks calculated with RISKIND for the two population groups using site-specific data were of the same order of magnitude as the risk calculated using RADTRAN 4 for the suburban population described in DOE/EIS-0203-D. This study revealed in one specific application that use of default and site-specific parameters resulted in comparable dose estimates. If this tendency were to hold generally true over other environments and model variables, then risk assessors might prefer to select codes on the basis of criteria such as (1) the number of variables to select from; (2) ability to calculate consequences directly, and (3) outputs geared to addressing public concerns

[Safety Walkround as a risk assessment tool: the first Italian experience].

Science.gov (United States)

Levati, A; Amato, S; Adrario, E; De Flaviis, C; Delia, C; Milesi, S; Petrini, F; Bevilacqua, L

2009-01-01

In 2007 the Study Group "Clinical Risk Management" of the Italian Society of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care Unit (SIAARTI) performed a multicentric study in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to assess the feasibility and efficacy of the Safety WalkRound (SWR) as a tool for the risk assessment. As the environment and organization of ICU are more complex than anaesthesia ones, mainly due to the severity of patients, high number of involved healthcare givers and different kinds of procedures, the Study Group decided that a check list is not fit for ICU and , after a careful review of the literature, chose to test the Safety WalkRound. in four Italian General ICUs. The SWR was born in 2003 when Frankel plans a structured interview of 15 questions (about 50% open) to collect operators' opinion about rate and type of errors, near misses, communication, problems regarding the report of adverse events and suggestions to increase patient safety. Consequently SWR is a tool of risk assessment alternative to the Incident Reporting which is marked by a diffuse underreporting of operators. Although the SWR is a new tool not validated in Italian language neither published in Italy on PubMed journals , the Study Group has decided that it might be fit for the organization of Italian Healthcare System. A back translation of the validated model of Joint Commission was provided and the translated version has been lightly changed to be employed in hospitals with and without Incident Reporting . The questions have been changed or introduced on the basis of the organization vulnerabilities detected with observational techniques or Focus Group. The interview performed in Italy contains 16 questions classified into five groups: a) error, b) error prevention, c) communication, teamwork and leadership, d) error discussion and e) relationship with patients and their families. The answers collected have been analyzed to detect the vulnerabilities in the organizations and specify the improvements to

Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

2013-01-01

A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

Risk assessment of medical exposure in X-ray examinations of children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. G. Shatsky

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The use of the effective dose (the concept of which was developed for radiation protection of workers and public and the nominal risk coefficients, averaged by sex and age, to assess the radiation risks of medical exposure has some significant limitations. Age and sex distribution of the staff and the entire population may be quite different from the sex and age distribution of patients undergoing medical exposure. Moreover, the structure of the age and sex of patients may be different for various medical examinations. There are simplified methods for evaluating individual risk for patients undergoing medical exposure. The methods are based on the effective dose evaluation and those take in to account age and gender. A more accurate assessment of lifetime risk of delayed stochastic effects for health of the patient is achieved by using the organ doses and the age and gender risk factors. The aim of this work was evaluation of the lifetime risk of long-term stochastic health effects for different gender and age groups of children undergoing various radiographic investigations by using organ doses and the age and gender risk factors, and subsequent classification in accordance with generally accepted international risk scale. Data from surveys of33 X-ray units in 29 specialized pediatric health care organizations in Russia were used in the work. Organ doses and patient’s effective doses were calculated on the basis of the defined for each x-ray machine typical modes for the 12 radiographic procedures (X-ray exam of the skull, chest, cervical spine, thoracic spine, lumbar spine–all in two projections – of the abdomen and pelvis – both in one projectionusing a computer program PCXMC., Radiation risks for selected studies were estimated using the obtained organ doses and the age and gender risk factors calculated for the Russian population. The radiation risks were classified according to the international scale of the risks. It was found

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

Evaluating Referral, Screening, and Assessment Procedures for Middle School Trauma/Grief-Focused Treatment Groups

Science.gov (United States)

Grassetti, Stevie N.; Williamson, Ariel A.; Herres, Joanna; Kobak, Roger; Layne, Christopher M.; Kaplow, Julie B.; Pynoos, Robert S.

2018-01-01

There is a need to delineate best practices for referring, assessing, and retaining students suspected of posttraumatic stress (PTS) and maladaptive grief (MG) in school-based treatment. Evidence-based risk-screening procedures should accurately include students who are appropriate for group treatment and exclude students who do not require…

The relationship between modifiable health risks and group-level health care expenditures. Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Research Committee.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, D R; Whitmer, R W; Goetzel, R Z; Ozminkowski, R J; Dunn, R L; Wasserman, J; Serxner, S

2000-01-01

To assess the relationship between modifiable health risks and total health care expenditures for a large employee group. Risk data were collected through voluntary participation in health risk assessment (HRA) and worksite biometric screenings and were linked at the individual level to health care plan enrollment and expenditure data from employers' fee-for-service plans over the 6-year study period. The setting was worksite health promotion programs sponsored by six large private-sector and public-sector employers. Of the 50% of employees who completed the HRA, 46,026 (74.7%) met all inclusion criteria for the analysis. Eleven risk factors (exercise, alcohol use, eating, current and former tobacco use, depression, stress, blood pressure, cholesterol, weight, and blood glucose) were dichotomized into high-risk and lower-risk levels. The association between risks and expenditures was estimated using a two-part regression model, controlling for demographics and other confounders. Risk prevalence data were used to estimate group-level impact of risks on expenditures. Risk factors were associated with 25% of total expenditures. Stress was the most costly factor, with tobacco use, overweight, and lack of exercise also being linked to substantial expenditures. Modifiable risk factors contribute substantially to overall health care expenditures. Health promotion programs that reduce these risks may be beneficial for employers in controlling health care costs.

Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

1990-01-01

During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in prediction of risk of fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Guowei; Thabane, Lehana; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Adachi, Jonathan D

2015-08-01

A frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation could quantify and predict the risk of fractures based on the degree of frailty in the elderly. We aimed to compare the predictive powers between the FI and the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in predicting risk of major osteoporotic fracture (hip, upper arm or shoulder, spine, or wrist) and hip fracture, using the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 3-year Hamilton cohort. There were 3985 women included in the study, with the mean age of 69.4 years (standard deviation [SD] = 8.89). During the follow-up, there were 149 (3.98%) incident major osteoporotic fractures and 18 (0.48%) hip fractures reported. The FRAX and FI were significantly related to each other. Both FRAX and FI significantly predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.05) and 1.02 (95% CI: 1.01-1.04) for per-0.01 increment for the FRAX and FI respectively. The HRs were 1.37 (95% CI: 1.19-1.58) and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.12-1.42) for an increase of per-0.10 (approximately one SD) in the FRAX and FI respectively. Similar discriminative ability of the models was found: c-index = 0.62 for the FRAX and c-index = 0.61 for the FI. When cut-points were chosen to trichotomize participants into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups, a significant increase in fracture risk was found in the high-risk group (HR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.36-3.07) but not in the medium-risk group (HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 0.82-1.84) compared with the low-risk women for the FI, while for FRAX the medium-risk (HR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.09-3.68) and high-risk groups (HR = 2.61, 95% CI: 1.48-4.58) predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture significantly only when survival time exceeded 18months (550 days). Similar findings were observed for hip fracture and in sensitivity analyses. In conclusion, the FI is comparable with FRAX in the prediction of risk of future fractures, indicating that

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

Science.gov (United States)

Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.

1976-04-01

The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

Radiation protection standards: A practical exercise in risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clarke, Roger H [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

Within 12 months of the discovery of x-rays in 1895, it was reported that large doses of radiation were harmful to living human tissues. The first radiation protection standards were set to avoid the early effects of acute irradiation. By the 1950s, evidence was mounting for late somatic effects - mainly a small excess of cancers - in irradiated populations. In the late 1980's, sufficient human epidemiological data had been accumulated to allow a comprehensive assessment of carcinogenic radiation risks following the delivery of moderately high doses. Workers and the public are exposed to lower doses and dose-rates than the groups from whom good data are available so that risks have had to be estimated for protection purposes. However, in the 1990s, some confirmation of these risk factors has been derived occupationally exposed populations. If an estimate is made of the risk per unit dose, then in order to set dose limits, an unacceptable level of risk must be established for both workers and the public. There has been and continues to be a debate about the definitions of 'acceptable' and 'tolerable' and the attributing of numerical values to these definitions. This paper discusses the issues involved in the quantification of these terms and their application to setting dose limits on risk grounds. Conclusions are drawn about the present protection standards and the application of the methods to other fields of risk assessment. (author)

Radiation protection standards: A practical exercise in risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, Roger H.

1992-01-01

Within 12 months of the discovery of x-rays in 1895, it was reported that large doses of radiation were harmful to living human tissues. The first radiation protection standards were set to avoid the early effects of acute irradiation. By the 1950s, evidence was mounting for late somatic effects - mainly a small excess of cancers - in irradiated populations. In the late 1980's, sufficient human epidemiological data had been accumulated to allow a comprehensive assessment of carcinogenic radiation risks following the delivery of moderately high doses. Workers and the public are exposed to lower doses and dose-rates than the groups from whom good data are available so that risks have had to be estimated for protection purposes. However, in the 1990s, some confirmation of these risk factors has been derived occupationally exposed populations. If an estimate is made of the risk per unit dose, then in order to set dose limits, an unacceptable level of risk must be established for both workers and the public. There has been and continues to be a debate about the definitions of 'acceptable' and 'tolerable' and the attributing of numerical values to these definitions. This paper discusses the issues involved in the quantification of these terms and their application to setting dose limits on risk grounds. Conclusions are drawn about the present protection standards and the application of the methods to other fields of risk assessment. (author)

Seroprevalence of Brucellosis and Risk Factors Related to High Risk Occupational Groups in Kazeroon, South of Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Beheshti

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Brucellosis is a major zoonosis worldwide. Many people for their professions are at higher risk of contracting the disease. Objective: To determine the seroprevalence of brucellosis and its risk factors in a group of high risk professions. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, all personnel or students of veterinary schools, slaughters and butchers working in the city were invited to participate (n=141. A comparison group (n=44 randomly selected from patients who were selected at random from people attended our healthcare center for reasons other than the infectious diseases. Results: 4 veterinarians, 15 veterinary assistants, 42 veterinarian students, 52 butchers, 17 slaughters, 8 slaughterhouse workers and 3 chefs made the first group and 14 storekeepers, 5 students of engineering, 11 clerks, 13 freelance workers, and 1 high school student made the comparison group. While the rate of consumption of most of the studied dairy products was almost similar in both groups, comparison group patients consumed more often milk (p<0.001 and cream (p<0.001 than the high risk group. 11 (7.8%; 95% CI: 3.4%–12.2% cases from high risk group and none of the comparison group were found seropositive for Brucella. Conclusion: Profession is the main factor in seropositivity. Consumption of dairy products and raw milk is not associated with a higher risk of seropositivity.

Identifying important life stages for monitoring and assessing risks from exposures to environmental contaminants: results of a World Health Organization review.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen Hubal, Elaine A; de Wet, Thea; Du Toit, Lilo; Firestone, Michael P; Ruchirawat, Mathuros; van Engelen, Jacqueline; Vickers, Carolyn

2014-06-01

In this paper, we summarize exposure-related issues to consider in determining the most appropriate age ranges and life stages for risk assessment. We then propose a harmonized set of age bins for monitoring and assessing risks from exposures to chemicals for global use. The focus is on preconception through adolescence, though the approach should be applicable to additional life stages. A two-tiered set of early life age groups is recommended. The first tier involves the adoption of guidance similar to the childhood age groups recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, whereas the second tier consolidates some of those age groups to reduce the burden of developing age-specific exposure factors for different regions. While there is no single "correct" means of choosing a common set of age groups to use internationally in assessing early life exposure and risk, use of a set of defined age groups is recommended to facilitate comparisons of potential exposures and risks around the globe, the collection of data and analyses of aggregate exposure and cumulative risk. Application of these age groups for robust assessment of exposure and risk for specific populations will require region-specific exposure factors as well as local environmental monitoring data. Copyright © 2013 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

2006-01-01

Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

Development of a Quantitative Framework for Regulatory Risk Assessments: Probabilistic Approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.

2003-11-01

The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point and have been based on deterministic calculations. Recently introduced Swedish regulations have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. A recent review of the overall structure of risk assessments in safety cases concluded that there are a number of decisions and assumptions in the development of a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. Regulatory understanding of these issues, potentially supported by independent calculations, is important in preparing for review of a proponent's risk assessment. One approach to evaluating risk in performance assessments is to use the concept of probability to express uncertainties, and to propagate these probabilities through the analysis. This report describes the various approaches available for undertaking such probabilistic analyses, both as a means of accounting for uncertainty in the determination of risk and more generally as a means of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The report discusses the overall nature of probabilistic analyses and how they are applied to both the calculation of risk and sensitivity analyses. Several approaches are available, including differential analysis, response surface methods and simulation. Simulation is the approach most commonly used, both in assessments for radioactive waste disposal and in other subject areas, and the report describes the key stages of this approach in detail. Decisions relating to the development of input PDFs, sampling methods (including approaches to the treatment

The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marek Burda

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

Biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy in intermediate-risk group men increases with the number of risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nobuki Furubayashi

2017-01-01

Conclusion: The number of intermediate risk factors is significantly associated with the PSA failure-free survival rate after radical prostatectomy in the intermediate-risk group. Patients classified into the intermediate-risk group based on all three intermediate risk factors are less likely to achieve a complete cure through surgery alone.

Assessment of Technogenic Accident Risk of Industrial Building Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Baiburin, D. A.; Baiburin, A. Kh

2017-11-01

A methodology for assessing the risk of an industrial building accident was developed taking into account the damage caused by various localization of collapse. Before the beginning of the survey of a facility technical condition, groups including the same type of building structures are selected. Further, assessment is made for the reduction in their load-carrying capacity from the strength and stability conditions taking into account defects. The characteristics of the influence of defects and structural damage on a building safety is the degree of compliance with the standards expressed by the reliability level. Reliability levels assignment is carried out on the basis of calculations, operating experience and inspection of a particular type of structure according to the formalized rules. The risk of collapse according to a separate scenario is calculated for structures that are capable and incapable of causing a progressive ossification. The results of the technique application are based on the analysis of the accident risk at the welding shop “Vysota (Height) 239” of the Chelyabinsk Pipe Rolling Plant.

Eielson Air Force Base OU-1 baseline risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jarvis, M.T.; Jarvis, T.T.; Van Houten, N.C.; Lewis, R.E.

1993-09-01

This Baseline Risk Assessment report is the second volume in a set of three volumes for operable Unit 1 (OU-1). The companion documents contain the Remedial Investigation and the Feasibility Study. Operable Unit 1 (OU-1) is one of several groups of hazardous waste sites located at Eielson Air Force Base (AFB) near Fairbanks, Alaska. The operable units at Eielson are typically characterized by petroleum, oil, lubricant/solvent contamination, and by the presence of organics floating at the water table. In 1989 and 1990, firms under contract to the Air Force conducted field studies to gather information about the extent of chemical contamination in soil, groundwater, and soil air pore space (soil gas) at the site. This report documents the results of a baseline risk assessment, which uses the 1989 and 1991 site characterization database to quantify the potential human health risk associated with past Base industrial activities in the vicinity of OU-1. Background data collected in 1992 were also used in the preparation of this report

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

2017-01-01

surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs......), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR......) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated...

Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

2013-12-01

Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

2009-01-01

Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

Science.gov (United States)

Ebner, G.

2009-04-01

Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

1994-01-01

The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

Risk assessment and nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bodansky, D.

1982-01-01

The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

Risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

1990-09-01

The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

Risk and culture: variations in dioxin risk perceptions, behavioral preferences among social groups in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seohyun Park

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Objectives This study examined variations in the perceptions of dioxin risk among social groups defined by geographical living location, environmental education, and occupation. Dioxin risk perceptions were analyzed according to values, risk awareness, knowledge, and behavioral preferences. Methods A quasi-experimental survey was designed and conducted on individuals from seven experimental groups in Jeonju city, South Korea, including: people living near incineration facilities; people living far from incineration facilities; governmental experts; nongovernmental organization members; office workers in developmental institutes or banks; students who were enrolled in environmental-related classes; and students who were enrolled in business-related classes. Results The results show variations among groups in values, awareness and behavioral preferences. Particular attention should be given to the result that groups with higher connectedness- to-nature values show higher willingness-to-act (WTA for risk reduction. Result s can be summarized as follows. First, awareness is associated with one’s geographical setting. Second, values and WTA behaviors are related to one’s environmental-related education and occupation. Third, values are significantly related to WTA behaviors. Conclusions Different cultures, in terms of values or worldview, among groups influence their perceptions of dioxin risk and choices of risk reduction behaviors. It is important to consider values in communicating complicated long-term risk management involving public participation. Further research should be continuously conducted on the effects of multiple dimensions of values on one’s WTA for risk reduction behaviors.

Vibration perception threshold in relation to postural control and fall risk assessment in elderly.