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Sample records for risk factors predicted

  1. Shoulder dystocia: risk factors, predictability, and preventability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Shobha H; Sokol, Robert J

    2014-06-01

    Shoulder dystocia remains an unpredictable obstetric emergency, striking fear in the hearts of obstetricians both novice and experienced. While outcomes that lead to permanent injury are rare, almost all obstetricians with enough years of practice have participated in a birth with a severe shoulder dystocia and are at least aware of cases that have resulted in significant neurologic injury or even neonatal death. This is despite many years of research trying to understand the risk factors associated with it, all in an attempt primarily to characterize when the risk is high enough to avoid vaginal delivery altogether and prevent a shoulder dystocia, whose attendant morbidities are estimated to be at a rate as high as 16-48%. The study of shoulder dystocia remains challenging due to its generally retrospective nature, as well as dependence on proper identification and documentation. As a result, the prediction of shoulder dystocia remains elusive, and the cost of trying to prevent one by performing a cesarean delivery remains high. While ultimately it is the injury that is the key concern, rather than the shoulder dystocia itself, it is in the presence of an identified shoulder dystocia that occurrence of injury is most common. The majority of shoulder dystocia cases occur without major risk factors. Moreover, even the best antenatal predictors have a low positive predictive value. Shoulder dystocia therefore cannot be reliably predicted, and the only preventative measure is cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Predictive risk factors for persistent postherniotomy pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aasvang, Eske K; Gmaehle, Eliza; Hansen, Jeanette B

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Persistent postherniotomy pain (PPP) affects everyday activities in 5-10% of patients. Identification of predisposing factors may help to identify the risk groups and guide anesthetic or surgical procedures in reducing risk for PPP. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted in 464...... patients undergoing open or laparoscopic transabdominal preperitoneal elective groin hernia repair. Primary outcome was identification of risk factors for substantial pain-related functional impairment at 6 months postoperatively assessed by the validated Activity Assessment Scale (AAS). Data on potential...... risk factors for PPP were collected preoperatively (pain from the groin hernia, preoperative AAS score, pain from other body regions, and psychometric assessment). Pain scores were collected on days 7 and 30 postoperatively. Sensory functions including pain response to tonic heat stimulation were...

  3. Predictive risk factors for moderate to severe hyperbilirubinemia

    OpenAIRE

    Gláucia Macedo de Lima; Maria Amélia Sayeg Campos Porto; Arnaldo Prata Barbosa; Antonio José Ledo Alves da Cunha

    2007-01-01

    Objective: to describe predictive factors for severity of neonataljaundice in newborn infants treated at the University Neonatal Clinic,highlighting maternal, obstetric and neonatal factors. Methods: Acohort retrospective study by means of review of medical charts todefine risk factors associated with moderate and severe jaundice.The cohort consisted of newborns diagnosed with indirect neonatalhyperbilirubinemia and submitted to phototherapy. Risk was classifiedas maternal, prenatal, obstetri...

  4. PREDICTION OF SURGICAL TREATMENT WITH POUR PERITONITIS QUANTIFYING RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    І. К. Churpiy

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Explored the possibility of quantitative assessment of risk factors of complications in the treatment of diffuse peritonitis. Highlighted 53 groups of features that are important in predicting the course of diffuse peritonitis. The proposed scheme of defining the risk of clinical course of diffuse peritonitis can quantify the severity of the source of patients and in most cases correctly predict the results of treatment of disease.

  5. Predictive risk factors for moderate to severe hyperbilirubinemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gláucia Macedo de Lima

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to describe predictive factors for severity of neonataljaundice in newborn infants treated at the University Neonatal Clinic,highlighting maternal, obstetric and neonatal factors. Methods: Acohort retrospective study by means of review of medical charts todefine risk factors associated with moderate and severe jaundice.The cohort consisted of newborns diagnosed with indirect neonatalhyperbilirubinemia and submitted to phototherapy. Risk was classifiedas maternal, prenatal, obstetric and neonatal factors; risk estimationwas based on the odds ratio (95% confidence interval; a bi-variantmultivariate regression logistic analysis was applied to variables forp < 0.1. Results: Of 818 babies born during the studied period, 94(11% had jaundice prior to hospital discharge. Phototherapy was usedon 69 (73% patients. Predictive factors for severity were multiparity;prolonged rupture of membranes, dystocia, cephalohematoma, a lowApgar score, prematurity and small-for-date babies. Following birth,breastfeeding, sepsis, Rh incompatibility, and jaundice presentingbefore the third day of life were associated with an increased risk ofhyperbilirubinemia and the need for therapy. Conclusion: Other thanthose characteristics that are singly associated with phototherapy,we concluded that multiparity, presumed neonatal asphyxia, low birthweight and infection are the main predictive factors leading to moderateand severe jaundice in newborn infants in our neonatal unit.

  6. Prediction of postpartum blood transfusion – risk factors and recurrence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wikkelsø, Anne J; Hjortøe, Sofie; Gerds, Thomas A

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim was to find clinically useful risk factors for postpartum transfusion and to assess the joint predictive value in a population of women with a first and second delivery. METHODS: All Danish women with a first and second delivery from January 2001 to September 2009 who gave birt...

  7. Value of multiple risk factors in predicting coronary artery disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Zhengbin; Zhang Ruiyan; Zhang Qi; Yang Zhenkun; Hu Jian; Zhang Jiansheng; Shen Weifeng

    2008-01-01

    Objective: This study sought to assess the relationship between correlative comprehension risk factors and coronary arterial disease and to build up a simple mathematical model to evaluate the extension of coronary artery lesion in patients with stable angina. Methods: A total of 1024 patients with chest pain who underwent coronary angiography were divided into CAD group(n=625)and control group(n=399) based on at least one significant coronary artery narrowing more than 50% in diameter. Independent risk factors for CAD were evaluated and multivariate logistic regression model and receiver-operating characteristic(ROC) curves were used to estimate the independent influence factor for CAD and built up a simple formula for clinical use. Results: Multivariate regression analysis revealed that UACR > 7.25 μg/mg(OR=3.6; 95% CI 2.6-4.9; P 20 mmol/L(OR=3.2; 95% CI 2.3-4.4; P 2 (OR=2.3; 95% CI 1.4-3.8; P 2.6 mmol/L (OR 2.141; 95% CI 1.586-2.890; P 7.25 μg/mg + 1.158 x hsCRP > 20 mmol/L + 0.891 GFR 2 + 0.831 x LVEF 2.6 mmol/L + 0.676 x smoking history + 0.594 x male + 0.459 x diabetes + 0.425 x hypertension). Area under the curve was 0.811 (P < 0.01), and the optimal probability value for predicting severe stage of CAD was 0.977 (sensitivity 49.0%, specificity 92.7% ). Conclusions: Risk factors including renal insufficiency were the main predictors for CAD. The logistic regression model is the non-invasive method of choice for predicting the extension of coronary artery lesion in patients with stable agiana. (authors)

  8. Predictive Risk Factors in the Treatment of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lebriz Hale Aktun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective This study aims to investigate predictive risk factors in the treatment of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM. Patients and Methods A total of 256 pregnant women who underwent 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT during 24–28 weeks of pregnancy were included according to the World Health Organization criteria. Demographic characteristics of the patients, including age, parity, family history of diabetes, body weight before pregnancy, and body weight at the diagnosis of GDM, were recorded. Fasting insulin and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c values at the time of diagnosis were evaluated. The patients were divided into two groups: those requiring insulin treatment (insulin group, n = 89 and those receiving diet therapy (diet group, n = 167 during pregnancy according to the American Diabetes Association recommendations. Results A total of 34.76% of the pregnant women with GDM required insulin treatment. The mean age of these patients was significantly higher compared to the diet group (34.9 ± 0.6 years vs. 31.9 ± 0.6 years; P = 0.004. Body mass index before pregnancy was also significantly higher in the insulin group than that in the diet group (32 ± 0.9 kg/m 2 vs. 29 ± 0.7 kg/m 2 ; P = 0.004. Fasting blood glucose (FBG during OGTT was 105.6 ± 2.1 mg/dL and 96.7 ± 1.1 mg/dL in the insulin group and diet group, respectively ( P < 0.001. There was no significant difference in fasting plasma glucose during OGTT between the groups ( P = 0.069, while plasma glucose at two hours was 161.1 ± 6.8 mg/dL in the insulin group and 145.1 ± 3.7 mg/dL in the diet group ( P = 0.027. At the time of diagnosis, HbA1c values were significantly higher in the insulin group compared to the diet group (5.3 ± 0.1 vs. 4.9 ± 0.1; P = 0.001. There was no significant difference in FBG and homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance values between the groups ( P = 0.908, P = 0.073. Conclusion Our study results suggest that age, family history of diabetes, body

  9. The "polyenviromic risk score": Aggregating environmental risk factors predicts conversion to psychosis in familial high-risk subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padmanabhan, Jaya L; Shah, Jai L; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S

    2017-03-01

    Young relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e. youth at familial high-risk, FHR) are at increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, and show higher rates of psychiatric symptoms, cognitive and neurobiological abnormalities than non-relatives. It is not known whether overall exposure to environmental risk factors increases risk of conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Subjects consisted of a pilot longitudinal sample of 83 young FHR subjects. As a proof of principle, we examined whether an aggregate score of exposure to environmental risk factors, which we term a 'polyenviromic risk score' (PERS), could predict conversion to psychosis. The PERS combines known environmental risk factors including cannabis use, urbanicity, season of birth, paternal age, obstetric and perinatal complications, and various types of childhood adversity, each weighted by its odds ratio for association with psychosis in the literature. A higher PERS was significantly associated with conversion to psychosis in young, familial high-risk subjects (OR=1.97, p=0.009). A model combining the PERS and clinical predictors had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 96%. An aggregate index of environmental risk may help predict conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. School Violence in Taiwan: Examining How Western Risk Factors Predict School Violence in an Asian Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ji-Kang; Astor, Ron Avi

    2010-01-01

    The current study explores whether theorized risk factors in Western countries can be used to predict school violence perpetration in an Asian cultural context. The study examines the associations between risk factors and school violence perpetration in Taiwan. Data were obtained from a nationally representative sample of 14,022 students from…

  11. A study of risk factors and predictive factors in intraoperative floppy iris syndrome during phacoemulsification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie-Xin Yu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To determine the incidence of intraoperative floppy iris syndrome(IFISin patients undergoing phacoemulsification in a Chinese hospital, and to assess new risk factors and predictive factors for IFIS. METHODS: A prospective, observational case series. In the consecutive cataract surgeries performed in one year, the medicine administration, pupil size(PSbefore and after mydriasis, and signs of IFIS were recorded. RESULTS: Totally 807 patients(1 068 eyesunderwent cataract surgeries. Among the 1 068 eyes, signs of IFIS were noted in 34 eyes. Strong positive correlations were showed between finasteride(6.4%, OR=5.885, tamsulosin(25%, OR=21.578, reserpine(16.7%, OR=12.947, clozapine(66.7%, OR=139.467, post-panretinal photocoagulation(14.3%, OR=10.789and IFIS. Pupil size was inversely related to IFIS incidence(PPCONCLUSION: The incidence rate of IFIS was 3.18%. Reserpine, clozapine and post-panretinal photocoagulation emerged as new risk factors for IFIS. A small dilated pupil may imply IFIS occurrence.

  12. Psychological Factors Predicting Risk-Taking Propensity of Poultry ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using a correlational design, the following measures were used: Performance Failure Appraisal Inventory (PFAI), Need for achievement scale, Locus of Control Behaviour and Risk-taking propensity. Results indicate a significant joint influence of perceived of fear of failure, achievement motivation, locus of control, age and ...

  13. The prevalence, risk factors predicting injury and the severity of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Kathryn van Boom

    factors associated with injuries or return-to-play (RTP) time. Objectives: To .... metacarpal fractures contributing mostly to the prolonged recovery ... to recover from TBIs/hypoxia. This follows .... gear and the legality of knee and elbow strikes to.

  14. Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

    2015-12-01

    We present a new approach to population health, in which data-driven predictive models are learned for outcomes such as type 2 diabetes. Our approach enables risk assessment from readily available electronic claims data on large populations, without additional screening cost. Proposed model uncovers early and late-stage risk factors. Using administrative claims, pharmacy records, healthcare utilization, and laboratory results of 4.1 million individuals between 2005 and 2009, an initial set of 42,000 variables were derived that together describe the full health status and history of every individual. Machine learning was then used to methodically enhance predictive variable set and fit models predicting onset of type 2 diabetes in 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013. We compared the enhanced model with a parsimonious model consisting of known diabetes risk factors in a real-world environment, where missing values are common and prevalent. Furthermore, we analyzed novel and known risk factors emerging from the model at different age groups at different stages before the onset. Parsimonious model using 21 classic diabetes risk factors resulted in area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.75 for diabetes prediction within a 2-year window following the baseline. The enhanced model increased the AUC to 0.80, with about 900 variables selected as predictive (p differences between AUCs). Similar improvements were observed for models predicting diabetes onset 1-3 years and 2-4 years after baseline. The enhanced model improved positive predictive value by at least 50% and identified novel surrogate risk factors for type 2 diabetes, such as chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 3.71), high alanine aminotransferase (OR 2.26), esophageal reflux (OR 1.85), and history of acute bronchitis (OR 1.45). Liver risk factors emerge later in the process of diabetes development compared with obesity-related factors such as hypertension and high hemoglobin A1c. In conclusion, population-level risk

  15. PREDICTION OF SURGICAL TREATMENT WITH POUR PERITONITIS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT QUANTIFYING RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    І. К. Churpiy

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available There was investigated the possibility of quantitative assessment of risk factors of complications in the treatment of diffuse peritonitis. There were ditermined 70 groups of features that are important in predicting the course of diffuse peritonitis. The proposed scheme is the definition of risk clinical course of diffuse peritonitis can quantify the severity of the original patients and in most cases is correctly to predict the results of treatment of disease.

  16. Prediction of Adulthood Obesity Using Genetic and Childhood Clinical Risk Factors in the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyednasrollah, Fatemeh; Mäkelä, Johanna; Pitkänen, Niina; Juonala, Markus; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Lehtimäki, Terho; Viikari, Jorma; Kelly, Tanika; Li, Changwei; Bazzano, Lydia; Elo, Laura L; Raitakari, Olli T

    2017-06-01

    Obesity is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Early prediction of obesity is essential for prevention. The aim of this study is to assess the use of childhood clinical factors and the genetic risk factors in predicting adulthood obesity using machine learning methods. A total of 2262 participants from the Cardiovascular Risk in YFS (Young Finns Study) were followed up from childhood (age 3-18 years) to adulthood for 31 years. The data were divided into training (n=1625) and validation (n=637) set. The effect of known genetic risk factors (97 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) was investigated as a weighted genetic risk score of all 97 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (WGRS97) or a subset of 19 most significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (WGRS19) using boosting machine learning technique. WGRS97 and WGRS19 were validated using external data (n=369) from BHS (Bogalusa Heart Study). WGRS19 improved the accuracy of predicting adulthood obesity in training (area under the curve [AUC=0.787 versus AUC=0.744, P obesity. Predictive accuracy is highest among young children (3-6 years), whereas among older children (9-18 years) the risk can be identified using childhood clinical factors. The model is helpful in screening children with high risk of developing obesity. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  17. Predicting risk for childhood asthma by pre-pregnancy, perinatal, and postnatal factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Hui-Ju; Chiang, Tung-Liang; Lin, Shio-Jean; Guo, Yue Leon

    2015-05-01

    Symptoms of atopic disease start early in human life. Predicting risk for childhood asthma by early-life exposure would contribute to disease prevention. A birth cohort study was conducted to investigate early-life risk factors for childhood asthma and to develop a predictive model for the development of asthma. National representative samples of newborn babies were obtained by multistage stratified systematic sampling from the 2005 Taiwan Birth Registry. Information on potential risk factors and children's health was collected by home interview when babies were 6 months old and 5 yr old, respectively. Backward stepwise regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors of childhood asthma for predictive models that were used to calculate the probability of childhood asthma. A total of 19,192 children completed the study satisfactorily. Physician-diagnosed asthma was reported in 6.6% of 5-yr-old children. Pre-pregnancy factors (parental atopy and socioeconomic status), perinatal factors (place of residence, exposure to indoor mold and painting/renovations during pregnancy), and postnatal factors (maternal postpartum depression and the presence of atopic dermatitis before 6 months of age) were chosen for the predictive models, and the highest predicted probability of asthma in 5-yr-old children was 68.1% in boys and 78.1% in girls; the lowest probability in boys and girls was 4.1% and 3.2%, respectively. This investigation provides a technique for predicting risk of childhood asthma that can be used to developing a preventive strategy against asthma. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Identifying the necessary and sufficient number of risk factors for predicting academic failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucio, Robert; Hunt, Elizabeth; Bornovalova, Marina

    2012-03-01

    Identifying the point at which individuals become at risk for academic failure (grade point average [GPA] academic success or failure. This study focused on 12 school-related factors. Using a thorough 5-step process, we identified which unique risk factors place one at risk for academic failure. Academic engagement, academic expectations, academic self-efficacy, homework completion, school relevance, school safety, teacher relationships (positive relationship), grade retention, school mobility, and school misbehaviors (negative relationship) were uniquely related to GPA even after controlling for all relevant covariates. Next, a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff point for determining how many risk factors predict academic failure (GPA academic failure, which provides a way for early identification of individuals who are at risk. Further implications of these findings are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Predicts Mortality Risk in Older Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabbe, K.S.; Mortensen, E.L.; Avlund, K.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To test the hypothesis that low circulating brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), a secretory member of the neurotrophin family that has a protective role in neurodegeneration and stress responses and a regulatory role in metabolism, predicts risk of all-cause mortality in 85-year...

  20. Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... cells do not invade nearby tissues or spread. Risk Factors Key Points Factors That are Known to ... chemicals . Factors That are Known to Increase the Risk of Cancer Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Tobacco ...

  1. Beyond the first episode: candidate factors for a risk prediction model of schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Brendan P

    2010-01-01

    Many early psychosis services are financially compromised and cannot offer a full tenure of care to all patients. To maintain viability of services it is important that those with schizophrenia are identified early to maximize long-term outcomes, as are those with better prognoses who can be discharged early. The duration of untreated psychosis remains the mainstay in determining those who will benefit from extended care, yet its ability to inform on prognosis is modest in both the short and medium term. There are a number of known or putative genetic and environmental risk factors that have the potential to improve prognostication, though a multivariate risk prediction model combining them with clinical characteristics has yet to be developed. Candidate risk factors for such a model are presented, with an emphasis on environmental risk factors. More work is needed to corroborate many putative factors and to determine which of the established factors are salient and which are merely proxy measures. Future research should help clarify how gene-environment and environment-environment interactions occur and whether risk factors are dose-dependent, or if they act additively or synergistically, or are redundant in the presence (or absence) of other factors.

  2. Prediction of Febrile Neutropenia after Chemotherapy Based on Pretreatment Risk Factors among Cancer Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aagaard, Theis; Roen, Ashley; Daugaard, Gedske; Brown, Peter; Sengeløv, Henrik; Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens; Helleberg, Marie

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Background Febrile neutropenia (FN) is a common complication to chemotherapy associated with a high burden of morbidity and mortality. Reliable prediction of individual risk based on pretreatment risk factors allows for stratification of preventive interventions. We aimed to develop such a risk stratification model to predict FN in the 30 days after initiation of chemotherapy. Methods We included consecutive treatment-naïve patients with solid cancers and diffuse large B-cell lymphomas at Copenhagen University Hospital, 2010–2015. Data were obtained from the PERSIMUNE repository of electronic health records. FN was defined as neutrophils ≤0.5 × 10E9/L ​at the time of either a blood culture sample or death. Time from initiation of chemotherapy to FN was analyzed using Fine-Gray models with death as a competing event. Risk factors investigated were: age, sex, body surface area, haemoglobin, albumin, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and chemotherapy drugs. Parameter estimates were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The scores were grouped into four: low, intermediate, high and very high risk. Results Among 8,585 patients, 467 experienced FN, incidence rate/30 person-days 0.05 (95% CI, 0.05–0.06). Age (1 point if > 65 years), albumin (1 point if 2) and chemotherapy (range -5 to 6 points/drug) predicted FN. Median score at inclusion was 2 points (range –5 to 9). The cumulative incidence and the incidence rates and hazard ratios of FN are shown in Figure 1 and Table 1, respectively. Conclusion We developed a risk score to predict FN the first month after initiation of chemotherapy. The score is easy to use and provides good differentiation of risk groups; the score needs independent validation before routine use. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

  3. Risk factors predict post-traumatic stress disorder differently in men and women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elklit Ask

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background About twice as many women as men develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD, even though men as a group are exposed to more traumatic events. Exposure to different trauma types does not sufficiently explain why women are more vulnerable. Methods The present work examines the effect of age, previous trauma, negative affectivity (NA, anxiety, depression, persistent dissociation, and social support on PTSD separately in men and women. Subjects were exposed to either a series of explosions in a firework factory near a residential area or to a high school stabbing incident. Results Some gender differences were found in the predictive power of well known risk factors for PTSD. Anxiety predicted PTSD in men, but not in women, whereas the opposite was found for depression. Dissociation was a better predictor for PTSD in women than in men in the explosion sample but not in the stabbing sample. Initially, NA predicted PTSD better in women than men in the explosion sample, but when compared only to other significant risk factors, it significantly predicted PTSD for both men and women in both studies. Previous traumatic events and age did not significantly predict PTSD in either gender. Conclusion Gender differences in the predictive value of social support on PTSD appear to be very complex, and no clear conclusions can be made based on the two studies included in this article.

  4. Utility of Childhood Glucose Homeostasis Variables in Predicting Adult Diabetes and Related Cardiometabolic Risk Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Quoc Manh; Srinivasan, Sathanur R.; Xu, Ji-Hua; Chen, Wei; Kieltyka, Lyn; Berenson, Gerald S.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE This study examines the usefulness of childhood glucose homeostasis variables (glucose, insulin, and insulin resistance index [homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance {HOMA-IR}]) in predicting pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes and related cardiometabolic risk factors in adulthood. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This retrospective cohort study consisted of normoglycemic (n = 1,058), pre-diabetic (n = 37), and type 2 diabetic (n = 25) adults aged 19–39 years who were followed o...

  5. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Prediction of Adult Dyslipidemia Using Genetic and Childhood Clinical Risk Factors: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuotio, Joel; Pitkänen, Niina; Magnussen, Costan G; Buscot, Marie-Jeanne; Venäläinen, Mikko S; Elo, Laura L; Jokinen, Eero; Laitinen, Tomi; Taittonen, Leena; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka; Lehtimäki, Terho; Viikari, Jorma S; Juonala, Markus; Raitakari, Olli T

    2017-06-01

    Dyslipidemia is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We examined whether the addition of novel single-nucleotide polymorphisms for blood lipid levels enhances the prediction of adult dyslipidemia in comparison to childhood lipid measures. Two thousand four hundred and twenty-two participants of the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study who had participated in 2 surveys held during childhood (in 1980 when aged 3-18 years and in 1986) and at least once in a follow-up study in adulthood (2001, 2007, and 2011) were included. We examined whether inclusion of a lipid-specific weighted genetic risk score based on 58 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, 71 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and 40 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for triglycerides improved the prediction of adult dyslipidemia compared with clinical childhood risk factors. Adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, physical activity, and smoking in childhood, childhood lipid levels, and weighted genetic risk scores were associated with an increased risk of adult dyslipidemia for all lipids. Risk assessment based on 2 childhood lipid measures and the lipid-specific weighted genetic risk scores improved the accuracy of predicting adult dyslipidemia compared with the approach using only childhood lipid measures for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.806 versus 0.811; P =0.01) and triglycerides (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.740 versus area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.758; P dyslipidemia in adulthood. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  7. Perceived heart risk factors can predict experienced psychological stress in outpatient cardiac rehabilitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mozhgan Saeidi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The study was done to investigate the role of perceived heart risk factors (PHRFs in the prediction of psychological symptoms of cardiac rehabilitation (CR patients. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 124 CR patients referred to Kermanshah Hospital of Imam Ali were assessed during April–July 2015. PHRFs scale and Depression, Anxiety, and Stress scale-21 used for data collection. The data were analyzed using linear multiple regression analysis. Results: The mean age of samples (69.4% male was 58.9 ± 9.7 years. The results of regression analysis evidenced that there is no significant relationship between any of the PHRFs with depression and anxiety (P > 0.05; however, biological (P = 0.018 and psychological (P = 0.019 risk factors significantly can predict stress. The model generally can explain 6.4% of the stress variance. Conclusion: PHRFs are included some significant predictors for experienced stress among the CR patients. Given that the biological and psychological risk factors are more effective in experienced stress by the patients, it is recommended that specialists pay more attention to the potential psychological outcomes of this group of patients.

  8. Predictive Value of Braden Risk Factors in Pressure Ulcers of Outpatients With Spinal Cord Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fariba Sadeghi Fazel

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Pressure Ulcers (PUs remain among the most common complications after traumatic spinal cord Injuries (SCIs. The main goal of risk factor assessment with different tools has been to provisionally estimate the chance of developing pressure ulcers in patients with Spinal Cord Injury (SCI. Braden tool has been of good predictive value and most commonly employed in hospital communities for risk assessment of pressure sore development. The objective of this study was to determine the Braden risk factors as well as the prevalence of pressure injuries in SCI patients. This cross-sectional study was performed from June 2013 to December 2015 on 163 consecutive referred outpatients with chronic traumatic SCI in our tertiary SCI rehabilitation clinic. We assessed pressure induced skin injuries as well as their Braden risk factors and analyzed their association with stage and location of Pressure Ulcer (PU and calculated prevalence of PU. One hundred and sixty-three patients out of 580 were found to have active pressure sores, with a prevalence of 28.1%. In the multiple models, only the Braden scale had significant association with the presence of active pressure sore. Patients with severe and moderate Braden scores were 2.36 and 1.82 times, more at risk of pressure sore development, as compared with those having mild scores (P≤0.01. It may be deduced that in various stages of SCI rehabilitation, the Braden scale may be calculated, and patients with moderate and severe risks (according to Braden sale may need more attention and/or inpatient care for PU prevention.  

  9. Interactions between risk factors in the prediction of onset of eating disorders: Exploratory hypothesis generating analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stice, Eric; Desjardins, Christopher D

    2018-06-01

    Because no study has tested for interactions between risk factors in the prediction of future onset of each eating disorder, this exploratory study addressed this lacuna to generate hypotheses to be tested in future confirmatory studies. Data from three prevention trials that targeted young women at high risk for eating disorders due to body dissatisfaction (N = 1271; M age 18.5, SD 4.2) and collected diagnostic interview data over 3-year follow-up were combined to permit sufficient power to predict onset of anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and purging disorder (PD) using classification tree analyses, an analytic technique uniquely suited to detecting interactions. Low BMI was the most potent predictor of AN onset, and body dissatisfaction amplified this relation. Overeating was the most potent predictor of BN onset, and positive expectancies for thinness and body dissatisfaction amplified this relation. Body dissatisfaction was the most potent predictor of BED onset, and overeating, low dieting, and thin-ideal internalization amplified this relation. Dieting was the most potent predictor of PD onset, and negative affect and positive expectancies for thinness amplified this relation. Results provided evidence of amplifying interactions between risk factors suggestive of cumulative risk processes that were distinct for each disorder; future confirmatory studies should test the interactive hypotheses generated by these analyses. If hypotheses are confirmed, results may allow interventionists to target ultra high-risk subpopulations with more intensive prevention programs that are uniquely tailored for each eating disorder, potentially improving the yield of prevention efforts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Evaluation of easily measured risk factors in the prediction of osteoporotic fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brown Jacques P

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fracture represents the single most important clinical event in patients with osteoporosis, yet remains under-predicted. As few premonitory symptoms for fracture exist, it is of critical importance that physicians effectively and efficiently identify individuals at increased fracture risk. Methods Of 3426 postmenopausal women in CANDOO, 40, 158, 99, and 64 women developed a new hip, vertebral, wrist or rib fracture, respectively. Seven easily measured risk factors predictive of fracture in research trials were examined in clinical practice including: age (, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80+ years, rising from a chair with arms (yes, no, weight (≥ 57kg, maternal history of hip facture (yes, no, prior fracture after age 50 (yes, no, hip T-score (>-1, -1 to >-2.5, ≤-2.5, and current smoking status (yes, no. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted. Results The inability to rise from a chair without the use of arms (3.58; 95% CI: 1.17, 10.93 was the most significant risk factor for new hip fracture. Notable risk factors for predicting new vertebral fractures were: low body weight (1.57; 95% CI: 1.04, 2.37, current smoking (1.95; 95% CI: 1.20, 3.18 and age between 75–79 years (1.96; 95% CI: 1.10, 3.51. New wrist fractures were significantly identified by low body weight (1.71, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.90 and prior fracture after 50 years (1.96; 95% CI: 1.19, 3.22. Predictors of new rib fractures include a maternal history of a hip facture (2.89; 95% CI: 1.04, 8.08 and a prior fracture after 50 years (2.16; 95% CI: 1.20, 3.87. Conclusion This study has shown that there exists a variety of predictors of future fracture, besides BMD, that can be easily assessed by a physician. The significance of each variable depends on the site of incident fracture. Of greatest interest is that an inability to rise from a chair is perhaps the most readily identifiable significant risk factor for hip fracture and can be easily incorporated

  11. Risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

  12. Predictive risk factors for chronic low back pain in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozturk, Erhan Arif; Kocer, Bilge Gonenli

    2018-01-01

    Although previous studies have reported that the prevalence of low back pain in Parkinson's disease was over 50% and low back pain was often classified as chronic, risk factors of chronic low back pain have not been previously investigated. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive risk factors of chronic low back pain in Parkinson's disease. One hundred and sixty-eight patients with Parkinson's disease and 179 controls were consecutively included in the study. Demographic data of the two groups and disease characteristics of Parkinson's disease patient group were recorded. Low back pain lasting for ≥3 months was evaluated as chronic. Firstly, the bivariate correlations were calculated between chronic low back pain and all possible risk factors. Then, a multivariate regression was used to evaluate the impact of the predictors of chronic low back pain. The frequency of chronic low back pain in Parkinson's disease patients and controls were 48.2% and 26.7%, respectively (p chronic low back pain in Parkinson's disease were general factors including age (odds ratio = 1.053, p = 0.032) and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale - Depression subscore (odds ratio = 1.218, p = 0.001), and Parkinson's disease-related factors including rigidity (odds ratio = 5.109, p = 0.002) and posture item scores (odds ratio = 5.019, p = 0.0001). The chronic low back pain affects approximately half of the patients with Parkinson's disease. Prevention of depression or treatment recommendations for managing depression, close monitoring of anti- parkinsonian medication to keep motor symptoms under control, and attempts to prevent, correct or reduce abnormal posture may help reduce the frequency of chronic low back pain in Parkinson's disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Beyond Framingham risk factors and coronary calcification: does aortic valve calcification improve risk prediction? The Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kälsch, Hagen; Lehmann, Nils; Mahabadi, Amir A; Bauer, Marcus; Kara, Kaffer; Hüppe, Patricia; Moebus, Susanne; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Dragano, Nico; Schmermund, Axel; Stang, Andreas; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund

    2014-06-01

    Aortic valve calcification (AVC) is considered a manifestation of atherosclerosis. In this study, we investigated whether AVC adds to cardiovascular risk prediction beyond Framingham risk factors and coronary artery calcification (CAC). A total of 3944 subjects from the population based Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (59.3±7.7 years; 53% females) were evaluated for coronary events, stroke, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (including all plus CV death) over 9.1±1.9 years. CT scans were performed to quantify AVC. Cox proportional hazards regressions and Harrell's C were used to examine AVC as event predictor in addition to risk factors and CAC. During follow-up, 138 (3.5%) subjects experienced coronary events, 101 (2.6%) had a stroke, and 257 (6.5%) experienced CVD events. In subjects with AVC>0 versus AVC=0 the incidence of coronary events was 8.0% versus 3.0% (pAVC scores (pAVC scores (3rd tertile) remained independently associated with coronary events (HR 2.21, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.81) and CVD events (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.58). After further adjustment for CAC score, HRs were attenuated (coronary events 1.55, 95% CI 0.89 to 2.69; CVD events 1.29, 95% CI 0.83 to 2.00). When adding AVC to the model containing traditional risk factors and CAC, Harrell's C indices did not increase for coronary events (from 0.744 to 0.744) or CVD events (from 0.759 to 0.759). AVC is associated with incident coronary and CVD events independent of Framingham risk factors. However, AVC fails to improve cardiovascular event prediction over Framingham risk factors and CAC. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  14. Performance of genetic risk factors in prediction of trichloroethylene induced hypersensitivity syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Yufei; Chen, Ying; Huang, Hanlin; Zhou, Wei; Niu, Yong; Zhang, Mingrong; Bin, Ping; Dong, Haiyan; Jia, Qiang; Huang, Jianxun; Yi, Juan; Liao, Qijun; Li, Haishan; Teng, Yanxia; Zang, Dan; Zhai, Qingfeng; Duan, Huawei; Shen, Juan; He, Jiaxi; Meng, Tao; Sha, Yan; Shen, Meili; Ye, Meng; Jia, Xiaowei; Xiang, Yingping; Huang, Huiping; Wu, Qifeng; Shi, Mingming; Huang, Xianqing; Yang, Huanming; Luo, Longhai; Li, Sai; Li, Lin; Zhao, Jinyang; Li, Laiyu; Wang, Jun; Zheng, Yuxin

    2015-07-20

    Trichloroethylene induced hypersensitivity syndrome is dose-independent and potentially life threatening disease, which has become one of the serious occupational health issues and requires intensive treatment. To discover the genetic risk factors and evaluate the performance of risk prediction model for the disease, we conducted genomewide association study and replication study with total of 174 cases and 1761 trichloroethylene-tolerant controls. Fifty seven SNPs that exceeded the threshold for genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)) were screened to relate with the disease, among which two independent SNPs were identified, that is rs2857281 at MICA (odds ratio, 11.92; P meta = 1.33 × 10(-37)) and rs2523557 between HLA-B and MICA (odds ratio, 7.33; P meta = 8.79 × 10(-35)). The genetic risk score with these two SNPs explains at least 20.9% of the disease variance and up to 32.5-fold variation in inter-individual risk. Combining of two SNPs as predictors for the disease would have accuracy of 80.73%, the area under receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) scores was 0.82 with sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 85%, which was considered to have excellent discrimination for the disease, and could be considered for translational application for screening employees before exposure.

  15. Risk factors predicting the outcome of salvage radiotherapy in patients with biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinoshita, Hidefumi; Shimizu, Yosuke; Mizowaki, Takashi

    2013-01-01

    Salvage radiotherapy is the only curative treatment for patients with prostate cancer showing biochemical progression after radical prostatectomy. In this study, we evaluated the clinicopathological parameters that influence the outcome of salvage radiotherapy. Medical records of 49 patients who underwent salvage radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy from 1997 to 2008 at the Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, were retrospectively reviewed. Radiotherapy was carried out with 66 Gy on the prostatic bed. Biochemical progression-free survival after salvage radiotherapy at 2, 5 and 7 years was 51.0%, 42.2% and 42.2%, respectively. Significant parameters predicting biochemical progression after salvage radiotherapy by Cox regression analysis were prostatectomy Gleason score sum ≥8 (hazard ratio 0.08; 95% confidence interval 0.03-0.22; P=0.001), prostate-specific antigen nadir after radical prostatectomy ≥0.04 ng/mL (hazard ratio 0.30; 95% confidence interval 0.13-0.69; P=0.005) and negative surgical margin (hazard ratio 0.28; 95% confidence interval 0.12-0.70; P=0.006). When the patients were subgrouped by these risk factors, the 5-year progression-free survival rates after salvage radiotherapy were 77.8%, 50.0% and 6.7% in patients with 0, 1 and ≥2 predictors, respectively. In order to discriminate favorable candidates for salvage radiotherapy, Gleason score of prostatectomy, prostate-specific antigen nadir after prostatectomy and positive surgical margin represent independent predictors. Thus, progression-free survival might be more precisely predicted according to the presence/absence of these risk factors. The significance of this risk classification should be confirmed by large prospective studies. (author)

  16. Can Image-Defined Risk Factors Predict Surgical Complications in Localized Neuroblastoma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoneda, Akihiro; Nishikawa, Masanori; Uehara, Shuichiro; Oue, Takaharu; Usui, Noriaki; Inoue, Masami; Fukuzawa, Masahiro; Okuyama, Hiroomi

    2016-02-01

    Image-defined risk factors (IDRFs) have been propounded for predicting the surgical risks associated with localized neuroblastoma (NB) since 2009. In 2011, a new guideline (NG) for assessing IDRFs was published. According to the NG, the situation in which "the tumor is only in contact with renal vessels," should be considered to be "IDRF-present." Previously, this situation was diagnosed as "IDRF absent." In this study, we evaluated the IDRFs in localized NB patients to clarify the predictive capability of IDRFs for surgical complications, as well as the usefulness of the NG. Materials and A total of 107 localized patients with NB were included in this study. The enhanced computed tomography and magnetic resonance images from the time of their diagnoses were evaluated by a single radiologist. We also analyzed the association of clinical factors, including the IDRFs (before and after applying the NG), with surgical complications. Of the 107 patients, 33 and 74 patients were diagnosed as IDRF-present (OP group), and IDRF-absent (ON group) before the NG, respectively. According to the NG, there were 76 and 31 patients who were classified as IDRF-present (NP group) and IDRF absent (NN group), respectively. Thus, 43 (40%) patients in the ON group were reassigned to the NP group after the NG. Surgical complications were observed in 17 of 82 patients who underwent surgical resection. Of the patients who underwent secondary operations, surgical complication rates were 55% in the OP group and 44% in the NP group. According to a univariate analysis, non-INSS 1, IDRFs before and after the NG and secondary operations were significantly associated with surgical complications. In a multivariate analysis, non-INSS 1 status and IDRFs after the NG were significantly associated with surgical complications. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  17. [Acute kidney injury after pediatric cardiac surgery: risk factors and outcomes. Proposal for a predictive model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Bárbara; Laranjo, Sérgio; Gomes, Inês; Freitas, Isabel; Trigo, Conceição; Fragata, Isabel; Fragata, José; Pinto, Fátima

    2016-02-01

    To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day-18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients' age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  18. Predictive Risk Factors for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding with Simultaneous Myocardial Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I-Chen Wu

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this study were to: (1 evaluate the epidemiology of simultaneous upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB and myocardial injury using parameters including troponin I (TnI; and (2 investigate the predictive risk factors of this syndrome. One hundred and fifty-five patients (101 men, 54 women; mean age, 64.7 ± 10.4 years; range, 38–94 years at the emergency department (ED with the major diagnosis of UGIB were included. They underwent serial electrocardiography (ECG and cardiac enzyme follow-up. Emergent gastroendoscopy was performed within 24 hours in most patients except for those who refused or were contraindicated. Mild myocardial injury was defined as the presence of any of the following: typical ST-T change on ECG, elevated creatine kinase-MB (CK-MB > 12U/L, or TnI > 0.2ng/dL. Moderate myocardial injury was defined as the presence of any two of the previously mentioned conditions. In total, 51 (32.9% and 12 (7.74% patients developed mild and moderate myocardial injuries, respectively. Myocardial injury was more common among patients with variceal bleeding (20/25 = 80.0% than those with ulcer bleeding (23/112 = 20.5%. It could partially be attributed to a higher baseline TnI level in cirrhotic patients. After adjusting for significant risk factors revealed by the univariate analysis, UGIB patients with a history of liver cirrhosis and more than three cardiac risk factors comprised a high-risk group for simultaneously developing myocardial injury. Other factors including age, gender, the color of nasogastric tube irrigation fluid, history of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, vasopressin or terlipressin administration, vital signs, and creatinine recorded at the ED were not significant predictors. Those who developed myocardial injury had a longer hospital stay (mean duration, 8.73 ± 6.94 vs. 6.34 ± 2.66 days; p = 0.03 and required transfusion of more units of packed erythrocytes.

  19. DIAGNOSIS AND PREDICTION OF CHOLECYSTITIS DEVELOPMENT ON THE BASIS OF NEURAL NETWORK ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Lazarenko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To develop an artificial neural network for diagnosing and predicting the development of cholecystitis based on an analysis of data on risk factors, and to explore the possibilities of its application in real clinical practice.Materials and methods. The collection of materials was held in at the hospitals of the city of Kursk and included a survey of 488 patients with hepatopancreatoduodenal diseases. 203 patients were suffering from cholecystitis, in 285 patients the diagnosis of cholecystitis was excluded. Analysis of risk factors’ data (such as sex, age, bad habits, profession, family relationships, etc. was carried out using an internally developed artificial neural network (multilayer perceptron with hyperbolic tangent as the activation function. The computer program “System of Intellectual Analysis and Diagnosis of Diseases” was registered in accordance with established procedure (Certificate No. 2017613090.Results. The use of neural network analysis of data on risk factors in comparison with the processing of information that forms a clinical picture allows the diagnosis of a potential disease with cholecystitis before the onset of symptoms. The training of the artificial neural network with a quantitative output coding the age of probable hospitalization made it possible to generate an array of values, signifficantly (α ≤ 0.001 not differing from the empirical data. The difference between the mean calculated and mean empirical values was 0.45 for the training set and 1.75 for the clinical approbation group. The mean absolute error was within the range of 1.87–2.07 years.Conclusion. 1. The proposed new approach to the diagnosis and prognosis of cholecystitis has demonstrated its effectiveness, which is confirmed in clinical approbation by the levels of sensitivity (94.44%, m = 2.26 and specificity (80.6%, m = 3.9.2. The error in predicting the age of probable hospitalization of patients with cholecystitis did not

  20. Risk Factors at Birth Predictive of Subsequent Injury Among Japanese Preschool Children: A Nationwide 5-Year Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morioka, Hisayoshi; Itani, Osamu; Jike, Maki; Nakagome, Sachi; Otsuka, Yuichiro; Ohida, Takashi

    2018-03-19

    To identify risk factors at birth that are predictive of subsequent injury among preschool children. Retrospective analysis of population-based birth cohort data from the "Longitudinal Survey of Babies Born in the 21st Century" was performed from 2001 through 2007 in Japan (n = 47,015). The cumulative incidence and the total number of hospitalizations or examinations conducted at medical facilities for injury among children from birth up to the age of 5 years were calculated. To identify risk factors at birth that are predictive of injury, multivariate analysis of data for hospitalization or admission because of injury during a 5-year period (age, 0-5 years) was performed using the total number of hospital examinations as the dependent variable. The cumulative incidence (95% confidence interval) of hospital examinations for injury over the 5-year period was 34.8% (34.2%-35.4%) for boys and 27.6% (27.0%-28.2%) for girls. The predictive risk factors at birth we identified for injury among preschool children were sex (boys), heavy birth weight, late birth order, no cohabitation with the grandfather or grandmother, father's long working hours, mother's high education level, and strong intensity of parenting anxiety. Based on the results of this study, we identified a number of predictive factors for injury in children. To reduce the risk of injury in the juvenile population as a whole, it is important to pursue a high-risk or population approach by focusing on the predictive factors we have identified.

  1. Predictive Risk Factors for Impaired Quality of Life in Middle-Aged Women with Urinary Incontinence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youn-Jung Son

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose Urinary incontinence (UI has substantial and important impacts on quality of life (QoL. The purpose of this study was to identify the associated risk factors of QoL in middle-aged women with UI. Methods The participants were 127 women aged 40-64 years who experienced UI. Data were collected from October to November, 2008 using a self-reported questionnaires. The data were analyzed through t-test, one-way ANOVA, Scheffe test, and multiple linear regression with SPSS ver. 16.0 program. Results The distribution of UI severity was mild 18.1%, moderate 40.2% and severe 41.7%. In univariate analysis, differences in the score for QoL according to participants' characteristics were statistically significant on the type of delivery, number of births and severity of UI. In multiple linear regression analysis after adjustment of other variables, the most powerful predictor of QoL is severity of UI. Number of births was also significant predictor. These two variables explained 25% of variance in QoL of women with UI. Conclusions UI is highly prevalent and causes suffering and impaired QoL among middle-aged women, but it stands beyond our attention. The results of this study suggest that women with moderate to severe UI should be screened for QoL by health care providers regularly. Further research is needed to determine comprehensive factors including psychosocial factors predicting the QoL for incontinent women.

  2. Predicting Parent-Child Aggression Risk: Cognitive Factors and Their Interaction With Anger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Christina M

    2018-02-01

    Several cognitive elements have previously been proposed to elevate risk for physical child abuse. To predict parent-child aggression risk, the current study evaluated the role of approval of parent-child aggression, perceptions of children as poorly behaved, and discipline attributions. Several dimensions of attributions specifically tied to parents' discipline practices were targeted. In addition, anger experienced during discipline episodes was considered a potential moderator of these cognitive processes. Using a largely multiple-indicator approach, a sample of 110 mothers reported on these cognitive and affective aspects that may occur when disciplining their children as well as responding to measures of parent-child aggression risk. Findings suggest that greater approval of parent-child aggression, negative perceptions of their child's behavior, and discipline attributions independently predicted parent-child aggression risk, with anger significantly interacting with mothers' perception of their child as more poorly behaved to exacerbate their parent-child aggression risk. Of the discipline attribution dimensions evaluated, mothers' sense of external locus of control and believing their child deserved their discipline were related to increase parent-child aggression risk. Future work is encouraged to comprehensively evaluate how cognitive and affective components contribute and interact to increase risk for parent-child aggression.

  3. Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batterham, Philip J; Christensen, Helen; Mackinnon, Andrew J

    2009-11-22

    Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled from the community in the Canberra region, Australia. A decision tree methodology was used to predict the presence of major depressive disorder after four years of follow-up. The decision tree was compared with a logistic regression analysis using ROC curves. The decision tree was found to distinguish and delineate a wide range of risk profiles. Previous depressive symptoms were most highly predictive of depression after four years, however, modifiable risk factors such as substance use and employment status played significant roles in assessing the risk of depression. The decision tree was found to have better sensitivity and specificity than a logistic regression using identical predictors. The decision tree method was useful in assessing the risk of major depressive disorder over four years. Application of the model to the development of a predictive tool for tailored interventions is discussed.

  4. Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christensen Helen

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. Methods The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled from the community in the Canberra region, Australia. A decision tree methodology was used to predict the presence of major depressive disorder after four years of follow-up. The decision tree was compared with a logistic regression analysis using ROC curves. Results The decision tree was found to distinguish and delineate a wide range of risk profiles. Previous depressive symptoms were most highly predictive of depression after four years, however, modifiable risk factors such as substance use and employment status played significant roles in assessing the risk of depression. The decision tree was found to have better sensitivity and specificity than a logistic regression using identical predictors. Conclusion The decision tree method was useful in assessing the risk of major depressive disorder over four years. Application of the model to the development of a predictive tool for tailored interventions is discussed.

  5. Risk factors predicting onset and persistence of subthreshold expression of bipolar psychopathology among youth from the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tijssen, M J A; Van Os, J; Wittchen, H U; Lieb, R; Beesdo, K; Wichers, Marieke

    2010-09-01

    To examine factors increasing the risk for onset and persistence of subthreshold mania and depression. In a prospective cohort community study, the association between risk factors [a family history of mood disorders, trauma, substance use, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and temperamental/personality traits] and onset of manic/depressive symptoms was determined in 705 adolescents. The interaction between baseline risk factors and baseline symptoms in predicting 8-year follow-up symptoms was used to model the impact of risk factors on persistence. Onset of manic symptoms was associated with cannabis use and novelty seeking (NS), but NS predicted a transitory course. Onset of depressive symptoms was associated with a family history of depression. ADHD and harm avoidance (HA) were associated with persistence of depressive symptoms, while trauma and a family history of depression predicted a transitory course. Different risk factors may operate during onset and persistence of subthreshold mania and depression. The differential associations found for mania and depression dimensions suggest partly different underlying mechanisms.

  6. Gender and age effects on risk factor-based prediction of coronary artery calcium in symptomatic patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicoll, R; Wiklund, U; Zhao, Y

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The influence of gender and age on risk factor prediction of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in symptomatic patients is unclear. METHODS: From the European Calcific Coronary Artery Disease (EURO-CCAD) cohort, we retrospectively investigated 6309 symptomatic patients, 62......, diabetes and smoking were independently predictive of CAC presence in both genders. In addition to a progressive increase in CAC with age, the most important predictors of CAC presence were dyslipidaemia and diabetes (β = 0.64 and 0.63, respectively) in males and diabetes (β = 1.08) followed by smoking (β...... = 0.68) in females; these same risk factors were also important in predicting increasing CAC scores. There was no difference in the predictive ability of diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia in either gender for CAC presence in patients aged 70, only...

  7. A discriminant analysis prediction model of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate based on risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huixia; Luo, Miyang; Luo, Jiayou; Zheng, Jianfei; Zeng, Rong; Du, Qiyun; Fang, Junqun; Ouyang, Na

    2016-11-23

    A risk prediction model of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NSCL/P) was established by a discriminant analysis to predict the individual risk of NSCL/P in pregnant women. A hospital-based case-control study was conducted with 113 cases of NSCL/P and 226 controls without NSCL/P. The cases and the controls were obtained from 52 birth defects' surveillance hospitals in Hunan Province, China. A questionnaire was administered in person to collect the variables relevant to NSCL/P by face to face interviews. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the influencing factors of NSCL/P, and a stepwise Fisher discriminant analysis was subsequently used to construct the prediction model. In the univariate analysis, 13 influencing factors were related to NSCL/P, of which the following 8 influencing factors as predictors determined the discriminant prediction model: family income, maternal occupational hazards exposure, premarital medical examination, housing renovation, milk/soymilk intake in the first trimester of pregnancy, paternal occupational hazards exposure, paternal strong tea drinking, and family history of NSCL/P. The model had statistical significance (lambda = 0.772, chi-square = 86.044, df = 8, P Self-verification showed that 83.8 % of the participants were correctly predicted to be NSCL/P cases or controls with a sensitivity of 74.3 % and a specificity of 88.5 %. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.846. The prediction model that was established using the risk factors of NSCL/P can be useful for predicting the risk of NSCL/P. Further research is needed to improve the model, and confirm the validity and reliability of the model.

  8. History of preeclampsia is more predictive of cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risk factors than obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidema, Wieteke M; Scholten, Ralph R; Lotgering, Fred K; Spaanderman, Marc E A

    2015-11-01

    To determine to what extent a history of preeclampsia affects traditional cardiometabolic (insulin resistance and dyslipidemia) and cardiovascular (hypertension and micro-albuminuria) risk factors of the metabolic syndrome irrespective of BMI. In a retrospective case-control study we compared 90 formerly preeclamptic women, divided in 3 BMI-classes (BMI 19.5-24.9, 25.0-29.9, ≥30.0kg/m(2)) to 30 controls, matched for BMI, age and parity. Cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risk factors (WHO-criteria) were tested 6-18 months post partum. Statistical analysis included unpaired t-tests, Mann-Whitney U test, or Chi square test and two-way ANOVA. Constituents of the metabolic syndrome (glucose, insulin, HOMAIR, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, blood pressure, micro-albuminuria) were higher in formerly preeclamptic women than in BMI-matched controls. Resultantly, traditional risk factors were more prevalent in formerly preeclamptic women than in controls (insulin resistance 80% vs 30%, dyslipidemia 52% vs 3%, hypertension 24% vs 0%, micro-albuminuria 30% vs 0%). Cardiometabolic risk factors increased with BMI, to the same extent in both groups. Formerly preeclamptic women had metabolic syndrome more often than their BMI-matched controls (38% vs 3%, p<0.001). Traditional risk factors of the metabolic syndrome are more prevalent in formerly preeclamptic women than in BMI-matched controls and increase with BMI to the same extent in both groups. A history of preeclampsia seems to be a stronger indicator of cardiovascular risk than obesity per se. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Factors Motivating Individuals to Consider Genetic Testing for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Wessel

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to identify attitudes and perceptions of willingness to participate in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes (T2D risk prediction in the general population. Adults (n = 598 were surveyed on attitudes about utilizing genetic testing to predict future risk of T2D. Participants were recruited from public libraries (53%, online registry (37% and a safety net hospital emergency department (10%. Respondents were 37 ± 11 years old, primarily White (54%, female (69%, college educated (46%, with an annual income ≥$25,000 (56%. Half of participants were interested in genetic testing for T2D (52% and 81% agreed/strongly agreed genetic testing should be available to the public. Only 57% of individuals knew T2D is preventable. A multivariate model to predict interest in genetic testing was adjusted for age, gender, recruitment location and BMI; significant predictors were motivation (high perceived personal risk of T2D [OR = 4.38 (1.76, 10.9]; family history [OR = 2.56 (1.46, 4.48]; desire to know risk prior to disease onset [OR = 3.25 (1.94, 5.42]; and knowing T2D is preventable [OR = 2.11 (1.24, 3.60], intention (if the cost is free [OR = 10.2 (4.27, 24.6]; and learning T2D is preventable [OR = 5.18 (1.95, 13.7] and trust of genetic testing results [OR = 0.03 (0.003, 0.30]. Individuals are interested in genetic testing for T2D risk which offers unique information that is personalized. Financial accessibility, validity of the test and availability of diabetes prevention programs were identified as predictors of interest in T2D testing.

  10. Social-Relational Risk Factors for Predicting Elder Physical Abuse: An Ecological Bi-Focal Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Heydrich, Levente; Schiamberg, Lawrence B.; Chee, Grace

    2012-01-01

    Annually in the United States, 1 to 5 million older adults, 65 and above, are physically or sexually injured or mistreated by their caregivers in family settings. This study examined the prevalence and risk factors involved in elder physical abuse by adult child caregivers, moving from the immediate elderly parent/adult child relationship context…

  11. History of preeclampsia is more predictive of cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risk factors than obesity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heidema, W.M.; Scholten, R.R.; Lotgering, F.K.; Spaanderman, M.E.A.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine to what extent a history of preeclampsia affects traditional cardiometabolic (insulin resistance and dyslipidemia) and cardiovascular (hypertension and micro-albuminuria) risk factors of the metabolic syndrome irrespective of BMI. STUDY DESIGN: In a retrospective case-control

  12. Time Factor in the Theory of Anthropogenic Risk Prediction in Complex Dynamic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostreikovsky, V. A.; Shevchenko, Ye N.; Yurkov, N. K.; Kochegarov, I. I.; Grishko, A. K.

    2018-01-01

    The article overviews the anthropogenic risk models that take into consideration the development of different factors in time that influence the complex system. Three classes of mathematical models have been analyzed for the use in assessing the anthropogenic risk of complex dynamic systems. These models take into consideration time factor in determining the prospect of safety change of critical systems. The originality of the study is in the analysis of five time postulates in the theory of anthropogenic risk and the safety of highly important objects. It has to be stressed that the given postulates are still rarely used in practical assessment of equipment service life of critically important systems. That is why, the results of study presented in the article can be used in safety engineering and analysis of critically important complex technical systems.

  13. Risk factors that predicted problem drinking in Danish men at age thirty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knop, Joachim; Penick, Elizabeth C; Jensen, Per

    2003-01-01

    records and a series of structured interviews and psychometric tests at ages 19-20 and 30 years. The present analysis focuses on the degree to which premorbid differences between the high- and low-risk groups later predicted lifetime drinking problems at age 30 (n = 241). RESULTS: As expected lifetime...... alcohol abuse/dependence by age 30 was reported significantly more often in the high-risk group. Of the 394 premorbid variables tested, 68 were found to distinguish the high- from the low-risk group before any subjects had developed a drinking problem. Of these 68 variables, 28 (41%) were also associated...... with DSM-III-R alcohol abuse/dependence at age 30. These 28 putative markers were reduced to 12 that were entered into a multiple regression analysis to search for the most powerful unique predictors of alcoholism. Four of the 28 putative markers were independently associated with problem drinking at age...

  14. [Risk factors and clinical prediction of shoulder dystocia in non-macrosomia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Na; Li, Qiuling; Chang, Liang; Liu, Caixia

    2015-01-01

    To investigate the risk factors, clinical prediction and intrapartum management of shoulder dystocia in non-macrosomia. Totally 7 811 cases of vaginal delivery were retrospectively reviewed from Juanary 2009 to December 2013 in Shengjing Hospital. Shoulder dystocia was found in 11 cases (0.14% , 11/7 811), including 1 case of macrosomia and 10 cases of non-macrosomia (shoulder dystocia group). Each non-macrosomia shoulder dystocia case was matched with 10 cases of normal delivery in the same week, which were selected randomly as the control group. The tendency and risk factors of shoulder dystocia in macrosomia and non-macrosomia were analyzed, and the following data between the two groups were compared, including the height of uterus fundus, abdominal circumference of the pregnant woman, the increasing of body mass index (BMI), fetal biparietal diameter (BPD), fetal femur length (FL), duration of every stage of labor, birth weight of the newborn, head circumference and chest circumference of the newborn, Apgar score. (1) There were 213 macrosomias among the 7 811 vaginal deliveries, with the incidence of 2.73% (213/7 811). Only 1 shoulder dystocia was macrosomia (0.46%, 1/213); while the other 10 cases were non-macrosomia ( 0.13%, 10/7 598). (2) From 2009 to 2013, the macrosomia happened by 24 cases (2.32%, 24/1 034), 42 cases (3.61%, 42/1 164), 46 cases (2.60%, 46/1 772), 62 cases (3.01%, 62/2 060), 39 cases (2.19%, 39/1781), respectively. The incidence of macrosomia had no significant difference among these 5 years (P > 0.05). The shoulder dystosia occurrence without macrosia in these 5 years were 1 case ( 0.10% , 1/1 034), 3 cases (0.26%, 3/1 164), 2 cases ( 0.11%, 2/1 172), 2 cases (0.10%, 2/2 060), 2 cases ( 0.11%, 1/1 781), respectively. The incidence of shoulder dystocia without macrosomia had no significant difference among these 5 years (P > 0.05). (3) In the should dystocia group, 5 cases were complicated with premature rupture of membrane (5/10), 4

  15. Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach

    OpenAIRE

    Batterham, Philip J; Christensen, Helen; Mackinnon, Andrew J

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. Methods The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled fr...

  16. Heart disease - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

  17. Recurrence of Subdural Haematoma in a Population-Based Cohort - Risks and Predictive Factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linnea Schmidt

    Full Text Available To estimate the risks of and identify predictors for recurrent subdural haematoma in surgically and conservatively treated patients.The cohort comprised all individuals diagnosed with a first-time subdural hematoma in Denmark 1996-2011. Information on potential predictors was retrieved from the Danish health registers. Cumulative recurrence risks were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Rate ratios (RR were estimated using Poisson regression.Among 10,158 individuals with a subdural hematoma, 1,555 had a recurrent event. The cumulative risk of recurrent subdural hematoma was 9% at 4 weeks after the primary bleeding, increasing to and stabilising at 14% after one year. Predictors associated with recurrence were: Male sex (RR 1.60, 95% CI:1.43-1.80, older age (>70 years compared to 20-49 years; RR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.21-1.65, alcohol addiction (RR 1.20, 95% CI:1.04-1.37, surgical treatment (RR 1.76, 95% CI:1.58-1.96, trauma diagnoses (RR 1.14, 95% CI:1.03-1.27, and diabetes mellitus (RR 1.40, 95% CI:1.11-1.74. Out of a selected combination of risk factors, the highest cumulative 1-year recurrence risks for subdural hematoma of 25% (compared to 14% for all patients was found in surgically treated males with diabetes mellitus.The recurrence risk of subdural hematoma is largely limited to the first year. Patient characteristics including co-morbidities greatly influence the recurrence risk of SDH, suggesting that individualized prognostic guidance and follow-up is needed.

  18. Recurrence of Subdural Haematoma in a Population-Based Cohort – Risks and Predictive Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Linnea; Gørtz, Sanne; Wohlfahrt, Jan; Melbye, Mads; Munch, Tina Noergaard

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the risks of and identify predictors for recurrent subdural haematoma in surgically and conservatively treated patients. Methods The cohort comprised all individuals diagnosed with a first-time subdural hematoma in Denmark 1996–2011. Information on potential predictors was retrieved from the Danish health registers. Cumulative recurrence risks were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Rate ratios (RR) were estimated using Poisson regression. Results Among 10,158 individuals with a subdural hematoma, 1,555 had a recurrent event. The cumulative risk of recurrent subdural hematoma was 9% at 4 weeks after the primary bleeding, increasing to and stabilising at 14% after one year. Predictors associated with recurrence were: Male sex (RR 1.60, 95% CI:1.43–1.80), older age (>70 years compared to 20–49 years; RR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.21–1.65), alcohol addiction (RR 1.20, 95% CI:1.04–1.37), surgical treatment (RR 1.76, 95% CI:1.58–1.96), trauma diagnoses (RR 1.14, 95% CI:1.03–1.27), and diabetes mellitus (RR 1.40, 95% CI:1.11–1.74). Out of a selected combination of risk factors, the highest cumulative 1-year recurrence risks for subdural hematoma of 25% (compared to 14% for all patients) was found in surgically treated males with diabetes mellitus. Conclusions The recurrence risk of subdural hematoma is largely limited to the first year. Patient characteristics including co-morbidities greatly influence the recurrence risk of SDH, suggesting that individualized prognostic guidance and follow-up is needed. PMID:26465602

  19. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  20. Risk factors that predict severe injuries in university rugby sevens players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirsafaei Rizi, Rezvan; Yeung, Simon S; Stewart, Nathan J; Yeung, Ella W

    2017-07-01

    To investigate injury incidence and the influence of physical fitness parameters on the risk of severe injuries in players on rugby sevens university teams. Prospective cohort study. Rugby players from three universities (N=104; 90M:14F; 20.6±1.9years) were recruited before the beginning of the season. Players underwent pre-season assessments of power, strength, speed, agility, endurance, stability, and flexibility. Throughout the season, rugby-related injury and exposure data were collected. Potential predictor variables were analyzed using Cox proportional regression model to identify risk factors associated with severe injuries (time loss>28days). Thirty-one injuries occurred during the rugby season. The match and training injury incidence rates were 59.3 injuries and 3.3 injuries per 1000 player-hours, respectively. Lower limb injuries were most common and most severe. The ankle joint was the most prevalent site of injury, and ligamentous injury was most common (48.4%). Nine severe injuries were sustained resulting in an average time loss of 51.3±14.6days. Female (hazard ratio [HR]=8.35; 95% confidence intervals [CI]=2.01-34.8), slower (HR=3.51; 95% CI=1.17-10.5), and less agile (HR=2.22; 95% CI=1.26-3.92) players as well as those with hip flexors tightness (HR=1.12; 95% CI=1.00-1.25) were at significantly greater risk for sustaining severe injuries. Limited studies are available on risk factors associated with amateur rugby players in the Sevens version. The development of gender-specific injury prevention measures that emphasize speed and agility training, and improve hip flexor extensibility may be important to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

    2012-01-01

    Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

  2. Risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Catherine J; Connors, K C; Sheehan, Timothy J; Vaughan, James S

    2005-06-01

    Minimize surprises on your financial statement by adopting a model for integrated risk management that: Examines interrelationships among operations, investments, and financing. Incorporates concepts of the capital asset pricing model to manage unexpected volatility

  3. Pre-pregnancy high-risk factors at first antenatal visit: how predictive are these of pregnancy outcomes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tandu-Umba B

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Barthélémy Tandu-Umba, Muela Andy Mbangama, Kitenge Marc Brunel Kamongola , Tchawou Armel Georges Kamgang, Mawamfumu Perthus Kivuidi, Munene Sam Kasonga, Meke Irène Kambashi, Kabasele Oscar Kapuku, Bituemi Jackson Kondoli, Kibundila Rolly Kikuni, Kuzungu Simon KasikilaDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Clinics of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo Objective: To determine relationships between pre-pregnancy risk factors at first antenatal visit booking and pregnancy outcomes.Study design: This was a multicenter, cross-sectional study involving women admitted for singleton delivery from July 1 until October 31 (3 months, 2013, at nine major maternity clinics in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo. All women were checked for hereditary, community, and personal medical/surgical risk situations and mother/infant problems in previous pregnancies. Maternal and perinatal complications related to current/just-terminated pregnancy were analyzed according to pre-pregnancy risk factors in order to establish their prediction concerning maternal and perinatal complications related to current/just-terminated pregnancy (odds ratios. Results are given with 95% confidence intervals, and P<0.05 was considered significant.Results: The study sample comprised 2,086 women. Primiparity (36.5%, single relationship status (26.4%, and maternal age ≥35 years (18.3% were the most important non-pathologic risk factors, while arterial hypertension in family (34.3%, previous miscarriage (33.2%, overweight/obesity (21.9%, diabetes in family (21.1%, previous cesarean section (15.7%, previous postpartum hemorrhage (13.1%, low birth weight (10%, previous macrosomia (10%, and previous premature rupture of membranes (6.2% predominated among pathologic risk factors. Major adverse outcomes recurred in some women, with recurrence rates of 21/37 (57%, 111/208 (53%, 74/208 (36%, 191/598 (32%, 132/466 (28%, 24/130 (18%, and 4/65 (6% for prematurity

  4. Predictive value of body mass index to metabolic syndrome risk factors in Syrian adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Bachir, Mahfouz; Bakir, Mohamad Adel

    2017-06-25

    Obesity has become a serious epidemic health problem in both developing and developed countries. There is much evidence that obesity among adolescents contributed significantly to the development of type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease in adulthood. Very limited information exists on the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and associated metabolic risk factors among Syrian adolescents. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between obesity determined by body mass index and the major metabolic risk factors among Syrian adolescents. A cross-sectional study of a randomly selected sample of 2064 apparently healthy Syrian adolescents aged 18 to 19 years from Damascus city, in Syria, was performed. Body mass index and blood pressure were measured. Serum concentrations of glucose, triglycerides, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol were determined. Metabolic syndrome was defined using the national criteria for each determined metabolic risk factor. Individuals with a body mass index 25 to 29.9 were classified as overweight, whereas individuals with a body mass index ≥30 were classified as obese. A receiver operating characteristics curve was drawn to determine appropriate cut-off points of the body mass index for defining overweight and obesity, and to indicate the performance of body mass index as a predictor of risk factors. The obtained data showed that blood pressure and the overall mean concentrations of fasting blood sugar, triglycerides, cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and triglycerides/high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol were significantly higher in overweight and obese adolescent groups (p index and some metabolic risks, the data suggest the best body mass index cut-offs ranged between 23.25 and 24.35 kg/m 2 . A strong association between overweight and obesity as determined by body mass index and high concentrations of metabolic syndrome

  5. Identifying Risk Factors for Drug Use in an Iranian Treatment Sample: A Prediction Approach Using Decision Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirabadizadeh, Alireza; Nezami, Hossein; Vaughn, Michael G; Nakhaee, Samaneh; Mehrpour, Omid

    2018-05-12

    Substance abuse exacts considerable social and health care burdens throughout the world. The aim of this study was to create a prediction model to better identify risk factors for drug use. A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted in South Khorasan Province, Iran. Of the total of 678 eligible subjects, 70% (n: 474) were randomly selected to provide a training set for constructing decision tree and multiple logistic regression (MLR) models. The remaining 30% (n: 204) were employed in a holdout sample to test the performance of the decision tree and MLR models. Predictive performance of different models was analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve using the testing set. Independent variables were selected from demographic characteristics and history of drug use. For the decision tree model, the sensitivity and specificity for identifying people at risk for drug abuse were 66% and 75%, respectively, while the MLR model was somewhat less effective at 60% and 73%. Key independent variables in the analyses included first substance experience, age at first drug use, age, place of residence, history of cigarette use, and occupational and marital status. While study findings are exploratory and lack generalizability they do suggest that the decision tree model holds promise as an effective classification approach for identifying risk factors for drug use. Convergent with prior research in Western contexts is that age of drug use initiation was a critical factor predicting a substance use disorder.

  6. Non-genetic risk factors and predicting efficacy for docetaxel--drug-induced liver injury among metastatic breast cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zheng; Liang, Xu; Yu, Jing; Zheng, Xiaohui; Zhu, Yulin; Yan, Ying; Dong, Ningning; Di, Lijun; Song, Guohong; Zhou, Xinna; Wang, Xiaoli; Yang, Huabing; Ren, Jun; Lyerly, Herbert Kim

    2012-08-01

    Docetaxel has been chosen as one of the most popular anticancer drugs in the treatment of breast cancer for more than a decade. There is increasingly awareness for the occurrence of docetaxel and/or docetaxel-drug-induced liver injury (DILI), although the underlying mechanism of occurrence and its risk factors remain unclear. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to identify non-genetic risk factors for docetaxel-DILI among 647 metastasis breast cancer patients treated with docetaxel-containing regimens. Sixty-seven (10.36%) patients were diagnosed as docetaxel-DILI. By logistic regression analysis, premenopausal status (odds ratio [OR][95% confidence interval {CI}] = 2.24 [1.30-3.87]), past hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections (OR [95% CI] = 4.23 [1.57-11.42]), liver metastasis (OR [95% CI] = 3.70 [2.16-6.34]). The predominant occurrence of DILI was seen in groups with docetaxel combination regimens. (OR [95% CI] = 2.66 [1.59-4.55]). The potential increasing occurrence of docetaxel-DILI was associated with multiple risk factors in an exposure-response manner (P < 0.001), and patients with more than three risk factors would be exposed to a 36.61-fold risk of DILI (95% CI = 10.18-131.62). Further analysis by the risk score and area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) showed that those four factors contributed to an AUC of 0.7536 (95% CI = 0.70-0.81), with a predictive sensitivity of 74.63% and specificity of 65.17%. Docetaxel-DILI with a relatively higher incidence should be addressed among metastatic breast cancer patients. Four predominant risk factors, including premenopausal status, past HBV infection, liver metastasis, and docetaxel combination regimens, were potential predicators for DILI. © 2012 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  7. Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States–Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clyde, Merlise A.; Palmieri Weber, Rachel; Iversen, Edwin S.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Goodman, Marc T.; Ness, Roberta B.; Risch, Harvey A.; Rossing, Mary Anne; Terry, Kathryn L.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Bandera, Elisa V.; Berchuck, Andrew; Carney, Michael E.; Cramer, Daniel W.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Cushing-Haugen, Kara L.; Edwards, Robert P.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Goode, Ellen L.; Lurie, Galina; McGuire, Valerie; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Olson, Sara H.; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Pike, Malcolm C.; Rothstein, Joseph H.; Sellers, Thomas A.; Sieh, Weiva; Stram, Daniel; Thompson, Pamela J.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Wicklund, Kristine G.; Wu, Anna H.; Ziogas, Argyrios; Tworoger, Shelley S.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.

    2016-01-01

    Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted. PMID:27698005

  8. Delayed neuropsychological sequelae after carbon monoxide poisoning: predictive risk factors in the Emergency Department. A retrospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botti Primo

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Delayed neuropsychological sequelae (DNS commonly occur after recovery from acute carbon monoxide (CO poisoning. The preventive role and the indications for hyperbaric oxygen therapy in the acute setting are still controversial. Early identification of patients at risk in the Emergency Department might permit an improvement in quality of care. We conducted a retrospective study to identify predictive risk factors for DNS development in the Emergency Department. Methods We retrospectively considered all CO-poisoned patients admitted to the Emergency Department of Careggi University General Hospital (Florence, Italy from 1992 to 2007. Patients were invited to participate in three follow-up visits at one, six and twelve months from hospital discharge. Clinical and biohumoral data were collected; univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify predictive risk factors for DNS. Results Three hundred forty seven patients were admitted to the Emergency Department for acute CO poisoning from 1992 to 2007; 141/347 patients participated in the follow-up visit at one month from hospital discharge. Thirty four/141 patients were diagnosed with DNS (24.1%. Five/34 patients previously diagnosed as having DNS presented to the follow-up visit at six months, reporting a complete recovery. The following variables (collected before or upon Emergency Department admission were associated to DNS development at one month from hospital discharge in the univariate analysis: CO exposure duration >6 hours, a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS score Conclusions Our study identified several potential predictive risk factors for DNS. Treatment algorithms based on an appropriate risk-stratification of patients in the Emergency Department might reduce DNS incidence; however, more studies are needed. Adequate follow-up after hospital discharge, aimed at correct recognition of DNS, is also important.

  9. [Risk factors of venous thromboembolism recurrence and the predictive value of simplified pulmonary embolism severity index in medical inpatients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, C L; Zhou, H X; Tang, Y J; Wang, L; Yi, Q; Liang, Z A

    2016-04-12

    To explore the risk factors of venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence and the predictive value of simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) in medical inpatients. A total of 149 consecutive patients with first diagnosed VTE from the medical departments of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2011 and December 2012 were enrolled and followed-up for 24 months. The VTE recurrence rate was calculated and univariate and multivariate cox proportional hazards regression analysis were performed to identify the risk factors associated with VTE recurrence. All the patients were evaluated by sPESI, and survival analysis was used to explore its value in predicting VTE recurrence in these medical patients. Out of the included 149 patients, 23(15.4%) patients had VTE recurrence during the 2 years' follow-up and median recurrence time was 167 days. The univariate analysis showed bed rest, severe lung disease, nephrotic syndrome, inappropriate anticoagulant therapy, smoking, diabetes, and malignant neoplasm might be associated with VTE recurrence (P=0.043, 0.006, 0.009, 0.032, 0.098, 0.048, 0.021). Among these risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed severe lung disease, nephrotic syndrome, and malignant neoplasm were the independent risk factors (HR=3.45, 5.67, 3.60; P=0.020, 0.020, 0.047); while for inappropriate anticoagulant therapy, the P value was marginal (HR=3.94, 95% CI: 0.99-15.63, P=0.051). The median sPESI scores of the patients with VTE recurrence was higher than that of the patients without VTE recurrence[1(1, 2) vs 0(0, 1), P=0.001], and patients with sPESI≥1 were associated with 5.57-fold increased risk of VTE recurrence compared with patients with sPESI=0 (95%CI: 1.79-17.30, P=0.001). Survival analysis also showed that the 2-year cumulative VTE recurrence rate of patients with sPESI≥1 was significant higher than that of patients with sPESI=0 (38.4% vs 5.7%, P=0.001). The medical VTE patients have high VTE recurrence risk

  10. [Classical cardiovascular risk factors: predictive value and treatment of the elderly. The rocky road to evidence-based medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, H P

    2001-04-01

    Coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease are still the most common causes of death in Western countries. A number of risk factors have been identified in young and middle-aged adults, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes. Their prevalence and importance, however, are less clear in the elderly. In terms of dyslipedemia it is questionable whether hypercholesterolemia is a definite risk factor. On the other hand, mortality can be reduced by lowering LDL cholesterol, but the benefit in the oldest old is not yet known. Systolic blood pressure rises with age and is discussed controversely as a potential risk factor in the elderly. Some large trials could show a clear relationship between high blood pressure while others did not see any association. Similar to the treatment of hypercholesterolemia, antihypertensive drugs showed beneficial effects in elderly people until the age of 80. But the treatment of the oldest old cannot be recommended in general. Diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance are some of the most common diseases in elderly people. They are considered to be an important risk factor until the age of 75. Their role in the oldest old is still under debate. Until now, we do not know anything about possible treatment effects because of the lack of controlled trials. Elderly people seem to have a risk profile different from younger people; especially in extreme ages the predictive role of classical risk factors is unclear. On the other hand, drug treatment could reduce mortality and morbidity in patients with hypercholesterolemia or hypertension. There are no studies which investigated the effects of blood glucose control in the elderly. The collection of sufficient data is a geriatric challange in order to decide whether treatment is useful or not.

  11. Health risk factor modification predicts incidence of diabetes in an employee population: results of an 8-year longitudinal cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolando, Lori; Byrne, Daniel W; McGown, Paula W; Goetzel, Ron Z; Elasy, Tom A; Yarbrough, Mary I

    2013-04-01

    To understand risk factor modification effect on Type 2 diabetes incidence in a workforce population. Annual health risk assessment data (N = 3125) in years 1 through 4 were used to predict diabetes development in years 5 through 8. Employees who reduced their body mass index from 30 or more to less than 30 decreased their chances of developing diabetes (odds ratio = 0.22, 95% confidence interval: 0.05 to 0.93), while those who became obese increased their diabetes risk (odds ratio = 8.85, 95% confidence interval: 2.53 to 31.0). Weight reduction observed over a long period can result in clinically important reductions in diabetes incidence. Workplace health promotion programs may prevent diabetes among workers by encouraging weight loss and adoption of healthy lifestyle habits.

  12. Risk factors predictive of endogenous endophthalmitis among hospitalized patients with hematogenous infections in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaziri, Kamyar; Pershing, Suzann; Albini, Thomas A; Moshfeghi, Darius M; Moshfeghi, Andrew A

    2015-03-01

    To identify potential risk factors associated with endogenous endophthalmitis among hospitalized patients with hematogenous infections. Retrospective cross-sectional study. MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters, and Medicare Supplemental and Coordination of Benefit inpatient databases from the years 2007-2011 were obtained. Utilizing ICD-9 codes, logistic regression was used to identify potential predictors/comorbidities for developing endophthalmitis in patients with hematogenous infections. Among inpatients with hematogenous infections, the overall incidence rate of presumed endogenous endophthalmitis was 0.05%-0.4% among patients with fungemia and 0.04% among patients with bacteremia. Comorbid human immunodeficiency virus infection/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) (OR = 4.27; CI, 1.55-11.8; P = .005), tuberculosis (OR = 8.5; CI, 1.2-61.5; P = .03), endocarditis (OR = 8.3; CI, 4.9-13.9; P endogenous endophthalmitis. Patients aged 0-17 years (OR = 2.61; CI, 1.2-5.7; P = .02), 45-54 years (OR = 3.4; CI, 2.0-5.4; P endogenous endophthalmitis. Endogenous endophthalmitis is rare among hospitalized patients in the United States. Among patients with hematogenous infections, odds of endogenous endophthalmitis were higher for children and middle-aged patients, and for patients with endocarditis, bacterial meningitis, lymphoma/leukemia, HIV/AIDS, internal organ abscess, diabetes with ophthalmic manifestations, skin cellulitis/abscess, pyogenic arthritis, tuberculosis, longer hospital stays, and/or ICU/NICU admission. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  13. Malnutrition: a highly predictive risk factor of short-term mortality in elderly presenting to the emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentile, S; Lacroix, O; Durand, A C; Cretel, E; Alazia, M; Sambuc, R; Bonin-Guillaume, S

    2013-04-01

    To identify independent risk factors of mortality among elderly patients in the 3 months after their visit (T3) to an emergency department (ED). Prospective cohort study. University hospital ED in an urban setting in France. One hundred seventy-three patients aged 75 and older were admitted to the ED over two weeks (18.7% of the 924 ED visits). Of these, 164 patients (94.8%) were included in our study, and 157 (95.7%) of them were followed three months after their ED visit. During the inclusion period (T0), a standardized questionnaire was used to collect data on socio-demographic and environmental characteristics, ED visit circumstances, medical conditions and geriatric assessment including functional and nutritional status. Three months after the ED visits (T3), patients or their caregivers were interviewed to collect data on vital status, and ED return or hospitalization. Among the 157 patients followed at T3, 14.6% had died, 19.9% had repeated ED visits, and 63.1% had been hospitalized. The two independent predictive factors for mortality within the 3 months after ED visit were: malnutrition screened by the Mini Nutritional Assessment short-form (MNA-SF) (OR=20.2; 95% CI: 5.74-71.35; pMalnutrition is the strongest independent risk factor predicting short-term mortality in elderly patients visiting the ED, and it was easily detected by MNA-SF and supported from the ED visit.

  14. [Predictive factors of anxiety disorders].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domschke, K

    2014-10-01

    Anxiety disorders are among the most frequent mental disorders in Europe (12-month prevalence 14%) and impose a high socioeconomic burden. The pathogenesis of anxiety disorders is complex with an interaction of biological, environmental and psychosocial factors contributing to the overall disease risk (diathesis-stress model). In this article, risk factors for anxiety disorders will be presented on several levels, e.g. genetic factors, environmental factors, gene-environment interactions, epigenetic mechanisms, neuronal networks ("brain fear circuit"), psychophysiological factors (e.g. startle response and CO2 sensitivity) and dimensional/subclinical phenotypes of anxiety (e.g. anxiety sensitivity and behavioral inhibition), and critically discussed regarding their potential predictive value. The identification of factors predictive of anxiety disorders will possibly allow for effective preventive measures or early treatment interventions, respectively, and reduce the individual patient's suffering as well as the overall socioeconomic burden of anxiety disorders.

  15. Predicting erectile dysfunction following surgical correction of Peyronie's disease without inflatable penile prosthesis placement: vascular assessment and preoperative risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Frederick L; Abern, Michael R; Levine, Laurence A

    2012-01-01

    Surgical therapy remains the gold standard treatment for Peyronie's Disease (PD). Surgical options include plication, grafting, and placement of inflatable penile prosthesis (IPP). Postoperative erectile dysfunction (ED) is a potential complication for PD surgery without IPP. We present our large series follow-up to evaluate preoperative risk factors for postoperative ED. The aim of this study is to evaluate preoperative risk factors for the development of ED following surgical correction of PD taking into account the degree of curvature, graft size, surgical approach, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, smoking history, preoperative use of phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitors (PDE5), and preoperative duplex ultrasound findings including peak systolic and end diastolic velocities and resistive index. We identified 218 men undergoing either tunica albuginea plication (TAP) or partial plaque excision with pericardial grafting for PD following a previously published algorithm between November 1992 and April 2007. Preoperative and postoperative erectile function, curvature characteristics, presence of vascular risk factors, and duplex ultrasound findings were available on 109 patients. Our primary outcome measure is the development of ED after surgery for PD. Ten percent of TAP and 21% of plaque excision with grafting patients developed postoperative ED. Neither curve direction (P = 0.76), graft area (P = 0.78), surgical approach (P = 0.12), chronic hypertension (P = 0.51), hyperlipidemia (P = 0.87), diabetes (P = 0.69), nor smoking history (P = 0.99) were significant predictors of postoperative ED. No combination of risk factors was found to be predictive of postoperative ED. Preoperative use of PDE5 was not a significant predictor of postoperative ED (P = 0.33). Neither peak systolic, end diastolic, nor resistive index were significant predictors of ED (P = 0.28, 0.28, and 0.25, respectively). This long-term follow-up of a large published series suggests that neither

  16. A predictive score for retinopathy of prematurity by using clinical risk factors and serum insulin-like growth factor-1 levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeşim Coşkun

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To detect the impact of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1 and other risk factors for the early prediction of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP and to establish a scoring system for ROP prediction by using clinical criteria and serum IGF-1 levels. METHODS: The study was conducted with 127 preterm infants. IGF-1 levels in the 1st day of life, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th week of life was analyzed. The score was established after logistic regression analysis, considering the impact of each variable on the occurrences of any stage ROP. A validation cohort containing 107 preterm infants was included in the study and the predictive ability of ROP score was calculated. RESULTS: Birth weights (BW, gestational weeks (GW and the prevalence of breast milk consumption were lower, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS, bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD and necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC were more frequent, the duration of mechanical ventilation and oxygen supplementation was longer in patients with ROP (P<0.05. Initial serum IGF-1 levels tended to be lower in newborns who developed ROP. Logistic regression analysis revealed that low BW (<1250 g, presence of intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH and formula feeding increased the risk of ROP. Afterwards, the scoring system was validated on 107 infants. The negative predictive values of a score less than 4 were 84.3%, 74.7% and 79.8% while positive predictive values were 76.3%, 65.5% and 71.6% respectively. CONCLUSION: In addition to BW <1250 g and IVH, formula consumption was detected as a risk factor for the development of ROP. Breastfeeding is important for prevention of ROP in preterm infants.

  17. Risk Factors for Scleroderma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... You are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is ... what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does not tend to run in families ...

  18. Risk Factors and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Back to Patient Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Even people who look healthy and ... Blood Pressure , high cholesterol, diabetes, and thyroid disease. Risk Factors For Arrhythmias and Heart Disease The following ...

  19. Using Clinical Factors and Mammographic Breast Density to Estimate Breast Cancer Risk: Development and Validation of a New Predictive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tice, Jeffrey A.; Cummings, Steven R.; Smith-Bindman, Rebecca; Ichikawa, Laura; Barlow, William E.; Kerlikowske, Karla

    2009-01-01

    Background Current models for assessing breast cancer risk are complex and do not include breast density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer that is routinely reported with mammography. Objective To develop and validate an easy-to-use breast cancer risk prediction model that includes breast density. Design Empirical model based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results incidence, and relative hazards from a prospective cohort. Setting Screening mammography sites participating in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. Patients 1 095 484 women undergoing mammography who had no previous diagnosis of breast cancer. Measurements Self-reported age, race or ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, and history of breast biopsy. Community radiologists rated breast density by using 4 Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System categories. Results During 5.3 years of follow-up, invasive breast cancer was diagnosed in 14 766 women. The breast density model was well calibrated overall (expected–observed ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.06]) and in racial and ethnic subgroups. It had modest discriminatory accuracy (concordance index, 0.66 [CI, 0.65 to 0.67]). Women with low-density mammograms had 5-year risks less than 1.67% unless they had a family history of breast cancer and were older than age 65 years. Limitation The model has only modest ability to discriminate between women who will develop breast cancer and those who will not. Conclusion A breast cancer prediction model that incorporates routinely reported measures of breast density can estimate 5-year risk for invasive breast cancer. Its accuracy needs to be further evaluated in independent populations before it can be recommended for clinical use. PMID:18316752

  20. Early Risk and Resiliency Factors Predict Chronic Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Caregivers of Patients Admitted to a Neuroscience ICU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Karmel W; Shaffer, Kelly M; Zale, Emily L; Funes, Christopher J; Koenen, Karestan C; Tehan, Tara; Rosand, Jonathan; Vranceanu, Ana-Maria

    2018-05-01

    Informal caregivers-that is, close family and friends providing unpaid emotional or instrumental care-of patients admitted to ICUs are at risk for posttraumatic stress disorder. As a first step toward developing interventions to prevent posttraumatic stress disorder in ICU caregivers, we examined the predictive validity of psychosocial risk screening during admission for caregiver posttraumatic stress disorder at 3 and 6 months post hospitalization. An observational, prospective study. Ninety-nine caregivers were recruited as part of a longitudinal research program of patient-caregiver dyads in a neuroscience ICU. None. Caregiver posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms were assessed during admission (baseline), 3 months, and 6 months post hospitalization. We 1) characterized prevalence of clinically significant symptoms at each time point 2); calculated sensitivity and specificity of baseline posttraumatic stress disorder screening in predicting posttraumatic stress disorder at 3 and 6 months; and 3) used recursive partitioning to select potential baseline factors and examine the extent to which they helped predict clinically significant posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms at each time point. Rates of caregiver posttraumatic stress disorder remained relatively stable over time (16-22%). Screening for posttraumatic stress disorder at baseline predicted posttraumatic stress disorder at 3 and 6 months with moderate sensitivity (75-80%) and high specificity (92-95%). Screening for posttraumatic stress disorder at baseline was associated with caregiver anxiety, mindfulness (i.e., ability to be aware of one's thoughts and feelings in the moment), and bond with patient. Furthermore, baseline posttraumatic stress disorder screening was the single most relevant predictor of posttraumatic stress disorder at 3 and 6 months, such that other baseline factors did not significantly improve predictive ability. Screening neuroscience ICU caregivers for clinically significant

  1. Predictive risk factors of postoperative urinary incontinence following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate during the initial learning period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuichiro Kobayashi

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Purpose: To determine the predictive factors for postoperative urinary incontinence (UI following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP during the initial learning period. Patients and Methods: We evaluated 127 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia who underwent HoLEP between January 2011 and December 2013. We recorded clinical variables, including blood loss, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, and the presence or absence of UI. Blood loss was estimated as a decline in postoperative hemoglobin levels. The predictive factors for postoperative UI were determined using a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results: Postoperative UI occurred in 31 patients (24.4%, but it cured in 29 patients (93.5% after a mean duration of 12 weeks. Enucleation time >100 min (p=0.043 and blood loss >2.5g/dL (p=0.032 were identified as significant and independent risk factors for postoperative UI. Conclusions: Longer enucleation time and increased blood loss were independent predictors of postoperative UI in patients who underwent HoLEP during the initial learning period. Surgeons in training should take care to perform speedy enucleation maneuver with hemostasis.

  2. Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

    2015-09-01

    Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as 'dyslexic' or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by

  3. Recurrence of Subdural Haematoma in a Population-Based Cohort - Risks and Predictive Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Linnea; Gørtz, Sanne; Wohlfahrt, Jan

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To estimate the risks of and identify predictors for recurrent subdural haematoma in surgically and conservatively treated patients. METHODS: The cohort comprised all individuals diagnosed with a first-time subdural hematoma in Denmark 1996-2011. Information on potential predictors...... was retrieved from the Danish health registers. Cumulative recurrence risks were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Rate ratios (RR) were estimated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Among 10,158 individuals with a subdural hematoma, 1,555 had a recurrent event. The cumulative risk of recurrent...... subdural hematoma was 9% at 4 weeks after the primary bleeding, increasing to and stabilising at 14% after one year. Predictors associated with recurrence were: Male sex (RR 1.60, 95% CI:1.43-1.80), older age (>70 years compared to 20-49 years; RR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.21-1.65), alcohol addiction (RR 1.20, 95...

  4. Angiogenic factors for prediction of preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction onset in high-risk women: AngioPred study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raia-Barjat, Tiphaine; Prieux, Carole; Gris, Jean-Christophe; Chapelle, Céline; Laporte, Silvy; Chauleur, Céline

    2017-09-22

    The study aimed to compare the level of two angiogenic factors, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt1) and soluble endoglin (sEng), for the prediction of preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction in high-risk pregnant women. A prospective multicenter cohort study of 200 pregnant patients was conducted between June 2008 and October 2010. sFlt1 and sEng were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Forty-five patients developed a placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcome. Plasma levels of sFlt1 and sEng were higher in patients who will experience a preeclampsia at 28, 32, and 36 weeks compared with patients with no complication. The same results were observed for intrauterine growth restriction. Plasma levels of sFlt1 and sEng were not significantly different for patients with preeclampsia compare to patients with intrauterine growth restriction. Patients with early pre-eclampsia (PE) had very high rates of angiogenic factors at 20, 24, and 28 weeks. Patients with late PE and early and late intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) had high rates at 32 and 36 weeks. In high-risk women, angiogenic factors are disturbed before the onset of preeclampsia and this is true for intrauterine growth restriction.

  5. Risk factor analysis for predicting vertebral body re-collapse after posterior instrumented fusion in thoracolumbar burst fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Hae-Dong; Bang, Chungwon; Lee, Jae Chul; Soh, Jae-Wan; Choi, Sung-Woo; Cho, Hyeung-Kyu; Shin, Byung-Joon

    2018-02-01

    In the posterior instrumented fusion surgery for thoracolumbar (T-L) burst fracture, early postoperative re-collapse of well-reduced vertebral body fracture could induce critical complications such as correction loss, posttraumatic kyphosis, and metal failure, often leading to revision surgery. Furthermore, re-collapse is quite difficult to predict because of the variety of risk factors, and no widely accepted accurate prediction systems exist. Although load-sharing classification has been known to help to decide the need for additional anterior column support, this radiographic scoring system has several critical limitations. (1) To evaluate risk factors and predictors for postoperative re-collapse in T-L burst fractures. (2) Through the decision-making model, we aimed to predict re-collapse and prevent unnecessary additional anterior spinal surgery. Retrospective comparative study. Two-hundred and eight (104 men and 104 women) consecutive patients with T-L burst fracture who underwent posterior instrumented fusion were reviewed retrospectively. Burst fractures caused by high-energy trauma (fall from a height and motor vehicle accident) with a minimum 1-year follow-up were included. The average age at the time of surgery was 45.9 years (range, 15-79). With respect to the involved spinal level, 95 cases (45.6%) involved L1, 51 involved T12, 54 involved L2, and 8 involved T11. Mean fixation segments were 3.5 (range, 2-5). Pedicle screw instrumentation including fractured vertebra had been performed in 129 patients (62.3%). Clinical data using self-report measures (visual analog scale score), radiographic measurements (plain radiograph, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance image), and functional measures using the Oswestry Disability Index were evaluated. Body height loss of fractured vertebra, body wedge angle, and Cobb angle were measured in serial plain radiographs. We assigned patients to the re-collapse group if their body height loss progressed greater

  6. Identifying Risk Factors for the Prediction of Hospital Readmission among Older Persons with Cardiovascular Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Renee Annette

    Older persons (55 years and older) with cardiovascular disease are at increased risk for hospital readmission when compared to other subgroups of our population. This issue presents an economic problem, a concern for the quality and type of care provided, and an urgent need to implement innovative strategies designed to reduce the rising cost of…

  7. A Screening Tool Using Five Risk Factors Was Developed for Fall-Risk Prediction in Chinese Community-Dwelling Elderly Individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Li; Chen, Xiaoyu; Han, Peipei; Ma, Yixuan; Jia, Liye; Fu, Liyuan; Yu, Hairui; Wang, Lu; Hou, Lin; Yu, Xing; An, Zongyang; Wang, Xuetong; Li, Lu; Zhang, Yuanyuan; Zhao, Peng; Guo, Qi

    2018-01-22

    The objective of this study was to determine falls risk profiles to derive a falls risk prediction score and establish a simple and practical clinical screening tool for Chinese community-dwelling elderly individuals. This was a prospective cohort study (n = 619) among adults aged 60 years and older. Falls were ascertained at a 1-year follow-up appointment. Sociodemographic information, medical history, and physical performance data were collected. The mean age was 67.4 years; 57.7% were women. Female sex (odds ratios [ORs] 1.82; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.17-2.82), diabetes (OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.13-3.98), a Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT) ≥10.49 seconds (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.23-1.94), a history of falls (OR 3.15; 95% CI 1.72-5.79), and depression (Geriatric Depression Scale [GDS] ≥11, OR 2.51; 95% CI 1.36-4.63) were the strongest predictors. These predictors were used to establish a risk score. The area under the curve of the score was 0.748. From a clinical point of view, the most appropriate cutoff value was 7 (97.5% specificity, 70.7% positive predictive value, and 83.6% negative predictive value). For this cutoff, the fraction correctly classified was 82.5%. A cutoff score of 7 derived from a risk assessment tool using four risk factors (gender, falls history, diabetes, and depression) and the TUGT may be used in Chinese community-dwelling elderly individuals as an initial step to screen those at low risk for falls.

  8. Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

    2018-03-01

    While modifiable bleeding risks should be addressed in all patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), use of a bleeding risk score enables clinicians to 'flag up' those at risk of bleeding for more regular patient contact reviews. We compared a risk assessment strategy for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) based on modifiable bleeding risk factors (referred to as a 'MBR factors' score) against established bleeding risk stratification scores (HEMORR 2 HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT). A nationwide cohort study of 40,450 AF patients who received warfarin for stroke prevention was performed. The clinical endpoints included ICH and major bleeding. Bleeding scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (areas under the ROC curves [AUCs], or c-index) and the net reclassification index (NRI). During a follow up of 4.60±3.62years, 1581 (3.91%) patients sustained ICH and 6889 (17.03%) patients sustained major bleeding events. All tested bleeding risk scores at baseline were higher in those sustaining major bleeds. When compared to no ICH, patients sustaining ICH had higher baseline HEMORR 2 HAGES (p=0.003), HAS-BLED (pbleeding scores, c-indexes were significantly higher compared to MBR factors (pbleeding. C-indexes for the MBR factors score was significantly lower compared to all other scores (De long test, all pbleeding risk scores for major bleeding (all pbleeding risk scores had modest predictive value for predicting major bleeding but the best predictive value and NRI was found for the HAS-BLED score. Simply depending on modifiable bleeding risk factors had suboptimal predictive value for the prediction of major bleeding in AF patients, when compared to the HAS-BLED score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Prospective Evaluation of Nutritional Factors to Predict the Risk of Complications for Patients Undergoing Radical Cystectomy: A Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allaire, Janie; Léger, Caroline; Ben-Zvi, Tal; Nguilé-Makao, Molière; Fradet, Yves; Lacombe, Louis; Fradet, Vincent

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this study was to identify nutritional preoperative factors associated with complications after radical cystectomy (RC). We prospectively evaluated the Mini-Nutritional Assessment Score, body mass index (BMI), appetite, stool frequency, hydration, food intake, weight loss, albuminemia, and prealbuminemia of 144 patients who underwent RC between January 2011 and April 2014. Postoperative complications were defined as any adverse event reported in the patient's file up to 90 days after surgery. Each complication was classified according to the Clavien-Dindo and Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center systems. The adjusted relative risk (RR) computed through a Poisson regression model was used to identify nutritional risk factors associated with post-RC complications. A high BMI >27 kg/m 2 was associated with higher risk of low-grade complications (RR:1.47 [95% CI,1.09-2.00]) at 7 days and a four-fold increased risk of cardiac complications at 7 and 90 days (RR:3.77 [1.15-12.32] and RR:3.28 [1.35-7.98]). Decreased appetite was associated with low-grade (RR:1.43 [1.03-1.99] complications within 90 days. Preoperative weight loss >3 kg was associated with high-grade (RR:2.49 [1.23-5.05]) and wound (RR:2.51 [1.23-5.10]) complications within 90 days. This study showed that preoperative nutritional status of patients may predict the occurrence of complications up to 90 days post-RC. Development of preoperative nutritional interventions may reduce the deleterious impact of RC on patients' health.

  10. Gender and age effects on risk factor-based prediction of coronary artery calcium in symptomatic patients: A Euro-CCAD study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicoll, R; Wiklund, U; Zhao, Y; Diederichsen, A; Mickley, H; Ovrehus, K; Zamorano, J; Gueret, P; Schmermund, A; Maffei, E; Cademartiri, F; Budoff, M; Henein, M

    2016-09-01

    The influence of gender and age on risk factor prediction of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in symptomatic patients is unclear. From the European Calcific Coronary Artery Disease (EURO-CCAD) cohort, we retrospectively investigated 6309 symptomatic patients, 62% male, from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and USA. All of them underwent risk factor assessment and CT scanning for CAC scoring. The prevalence of CAC among females was lower than among males in all age groups. Using multivariate logistic regression, age, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, diabetes and smoking were independently predictive of CAC presence in both genders. In addition to a progressive increase in CAC with age, the most important predictors of CAC presence were dyslipidaemia and diabetes (β = 0.64 and 0.63, respectively) in males and diabetes (β = 1.08) followed by smoking (β = 0.68) in females; these same risk factors were also important in predicting increasing CAC scores. There was no difference in the predictive ability of diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia in either gender for CAC presence in patients aged 70, only dyslipidaemia predicted CAC presence in males and only smoking and diabetes were predictive in females. In symptomatic patients, there are significant differences in the ability of conventional risk factors to predict CAC presence between genders and between patients aged role of age in predicting CAC presence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Factors predicting the development of pressure ulcers in an at-risk population who receive standardized preventive care: secondary analyses of a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demarre, Liesbet; Verhaeghe, Sofie; Van Hecke, Ann; Clays, Els; Grypdonck, Maria; Beeckman, Dimitri

    2015-02-01

    To identify predictive factors associated with the development of pressure ulcers in patients at risk who receive standardized preventive care. Numerous studies have examined factors that predict risk for pressure ulcer development. Only a few studies identified risk factors associated with pressure ulcer development in hospitalized patients receiving standardized preventive care. Secondary analyses of data collected in a multicentre randomized controlled trial. The sample consisted of 610 consecutive patients at risk for pressure ulcer development (Braden Score Pressure ulcers in category II-IV were significantly associated with non-blanchable erythema, urogenital disorders and higher body temperature. Predictive factors significantly associated with superficial pressure ulcers were admission to an internal medicine ward, incontinence-associated dermatitis, non-blanchable erythema and a lower Braden score. Superficial sacral pressure ulcers were significantly associated with incontinence-associated dermatitis. Despite the standardized preventive measures they received, hospitalized patients with non-blanchable erythema, urogenital disorders and a higher body temperature were at increased risk for developing pressure ulcers. Improved identification of at-risk patients can be achieved by taking into account specific predictive factors. Even if preventive measures are in place, continuous assessment and tailoring of interventions is necessary in all patients at risk. Daily skin observation can be used to continuously monitor the effectiveness of the intervention. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Modelo Preditivo para Cesariana com Uso de Fatores de Risco Predictive Model using Risk Factors for Cesarean Section

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfredo de Almeida Cunha

    2002-01-01

    dependent variable was cesarean section (c-section. Independent variables were antepartum factors related to c-section. Logistic regression was used to develop a predictive model. Results: our model showed risk of c-section according to the following variables: maternal age under 20 years (OR = 0.396 and over 28 years (OR = 2.133; previous vaginal deliveries (OR = 0.626; previous c-section (OR = 4.576; prenatal care (OR = 2.346; breech presentation (OR = 4.174; twin pregnancies (OR = 14.065; late obstetrical hemorrhage (OR = 28.189; mild preeclampsia (OR = 2.180; severe preeclampsia OR=16.738; chronic hypertension OR=4.927 and other clinical problems (OR = 2.012. The predictive model had a concordance of 82.3% between probabilities and responses. Conclusions: our study identified 12 antepartum factors related to c-section. It was possible to develop a cesarean section predictive model taking into account all previously identified antepartum risk factors.

  13. Risk factors predicting mortality in patients with lung abscess in a public tertiary care center in Karachi, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghazal, Shaista; Kumar, Ashok; Shrestha, Binav; Sajid, Sana; Malik, Maria; Rizvi, Nadeen

    2013-01-01

    Lung abscess is a commonly encountered entity in South-East Asia but not much data regarding its outcome is available. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with increased mortality in patients diagnosed with lung abscess in a tertiary care center of Karachi, Pakistan. A retrospective case analysis was performed via hospital records, on patients admitted with lung abscess between January 2009 and January 2011 at the largest state-owned tertiary care centre in Karachi, Pakistan. Out of the 41 patients hospitalized, 17 could not survive and were evaluated for clinical, radiological and microbiological factors to determine association with heightened mortality. Mortality due to lung abscess stood at 41.4% (17 of 41 cases). Adult male patients were found to have higher mortality with 13 out of 17 (43%) dead patients being male. A majority (21/41, 51.2%) of the cases belonged to the 41-60 year old age group. Highest mortality was seen in patients200 mg/dL (56%) succumb to disease. Patients with a positive history of smoking, diabetes mellitus, and alcohol intake expressed mortality rates of 44%, 56%, and 50% respectively; while 29.4% of the mortalities were positive for Pseudomonas aeruginosa on sputum culture. A significant association was found with elevated mortality and low haemoglobin levels at time of admission; mortality was 58% (p=0.005) in patients with Hb less than or equal to 10 mg/dL. The risk factors involved with heightened mortality included male gender and history of smoking, diabetes and alcohol intake. High blood sugar levels and detection of Pseudomonas aeruginosa on sputum cultures were also implicated. Anemia (Hb level less than or equal to 10 mg/dl) was statistically significant predictive factor for increased mortality.

  14. Stroke - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... oxygen. Brain cells can die, causing lasting damage. Risk factors are things that increase your chance of ... a disease or condition. This article discusses the risk factors for stroke and things you can do ...

  15. Risk factors for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes retained from childhood to adulthood predict adult outcomes: the Princeton LRC Follow-up Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morrison John A

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pediatric risk factors predict adult cardiovascular disease (CVD and type 2 diabetes (T2DM, but whether they predict events independently of adult risk factors is not fully known. Objective Assess whether risk factors for CVD and T2DM retained from childhood to adulthood predict CVD and T2DM in young adulthood. Study design 770 schoolchildren, ages 5–20 (mean age 12, 26-yr prospective follow-up. We categorized childhood and adult risk factors and 26-year changes (triglycerides [TG], LDL cholesterol, BMI, blood pressure [BP] and glucose ≥, and HDL cholesterol Results Children who had high TG and retained high TG as adults had increased CVD events as adults (p = .0005. Children who had normal BMI and retained normal BMI as adults had reduced CVD events as adults (p = .02. Children who had high BP or high TG and retained these as adults had increased T2DM as adults (p = .0006, p = .003. Conclusions Risk factors for CVD and T2DM retained from childhood to adulthood predict CVD and T2DM in young adulthood and support universal childhood screening.

  16. Usefulness of Genetic Polymorphisms and Conventional Risk Factors to Predict Coronary Heart Disease in Patients With Familial Hypercholesterolemia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Net, Jeroen B.; Janssens, A. Cecile J. W.; Defesche, Joep C.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Sijbrands, Eric J. G.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

    2009-01-01

    Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is an autosomal dominant disorder with an associated high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). The considerable variation in age of onset of CHD in patients with FH is believed to arise from conventional risk factors, as well as genetic variation other than in the

  17. Modelo predictivo de "score" de calcio alto en pacientes con factores de riesgo cardiovascular Predictive model of high calcium score in patients with cardiovascular risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Franco

    2007-12-01

    prueba del score de calcio coronario a un paciente con factores de riesgo cardiovascular. Se puede observar que muchos de los factores de riesgo que se correlacionan con un valor elevado de "score" de calcio coronario pueden ser modificables: cesar el hábito de fumar o realizar ejercicio.Introduction: it has been found through multiple studies that coronary calcium score is a good predictor of coronary disease in asymptomatic individuals with one or more cardiovascular risk factors; therefore it would be ideal to perform this test in order to stratify its risk, but due to economic factors this is not possible in most cases. The model presented allows predicting the probability that a patient may have a high coronary calcium score by means of his cardiovascular risk factors. The originality of the model is that it also comprises "protector" factors that diminish such probability. Methods: study of cases and controls in asymptomatic patients with cardiovascular risk factors to whom a PCC had been performed. The cases are patients with coronary calcium score greater than percentile 75 for his age and gender; the control case relationship is 2:1. Results: ages ranged between 35 and 75 years; 14.4% were female; 44.4% had family history of CHD; 34.4% were hypertensive; 38.9% had high total cholesterol; 24.4% had HDL cholesterol under 40 mg/dl; 33.3% had LDL cholesterol greater than 160 mg/dl; 25.6% were cigarette smokers; 23.3% were sedentary; 13.3% were periodical alcohol consumers; 15.6% were obese (BMI > 30; 18.9% exercised periodically and 34.4% received statins. Cardiovascular risk factors correlated with high coronary calcium score are recorded in table 1. In the logistic regression model, factors having a p table 2 are obtained. Expression for the model would be: The values of ci values are 1, if the factor is present and 0 if it is not. Conclusions: this model does not pretend to replace stratification through Framinghan model; on the contrary, it is a complement that

  18. A longitudinal analysis of early risk factors for adult-onset offending: What predicts a delayed criminal career?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zara, Georgia; Farrington, David P

    2010-10-01

    Late-onset offending, at the age of 21 or thereafter, is an underexplored dimension of the criminal career. Our aims were to explore which factors are precursors of late-onset offending, and the extent to which adult criminality can be predicted in childhood and adolescence. This is the first study that defines late-onset offending based on a combination of official records and self-reports. Longitudinal data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) were used. Four hundred and three South London men, followed from ages 8-10 to ages 48-50, were divided into late-starters (LS, n = 51), early-starters (ES, n = 140) and non-offenders (NO, n = 212). LS men were more likely than NO men to have been neurotic, truants or in poor housing at ages 8-10. At ages 12-14, they tended to be neurotic, and at ages 16-18, they had high unemployment and spent time hanging about on the streets. Compared with ES, LS were nervous at ages 8-10, and at age 18 they were more likely to be sexual virgins. Overall, LS men were more similar to NO men before age 21, but more similar to ES men by age 32. Our hypotheses that late-onset offenders would be particularly characterised by neuroticism or nervousness, but that this would buffer rather than fully protect over the life course, were sustained. Intervention to increase the resilience of children and adolescents who are rated as high on neurotic characteristics may lessen the burden that these factors impose in adult life and reduce the risk of a deteriorating quality of life and late onset criminal careers. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. A Bayesian Stepwise Discriminant Model for Predicting Risk Factors of Preterm Premature Rupture of Membranes: A Case-control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li-Xia; Sun, Yang; Zhao, Hai; Zhu, Na; Sun, Xing-De; Jin, Xing; Zou, Ai-Min; Mi, Yang; Xu, Ji-Ru

    2017-10-20

    Preterm premature rupture of membrane (PPROM) can lead to serious consequences such as intrauterine infection, prolapse of the umbilical cord, and neonatal respiratory distress syndrome. Genital infection is a very important risk which closely related with PPROM. The preliminary study only made qualitative research on genital infection, but there was no deep and clear judgment about the effects of pathogenic bacteria. This study was to analyze the association of infections with PPROM in pregnant women in Shaanxi, China, and to establish Bayesian stepwise discriminant analysis to predict the incidence of PPROM. In training group, the 112 pregnant women with PPROM were enrolled in the case subgroup, and 108 normal pregnant women in the control subgroup using an unmatched case-control method. The sociodemographic characteristics of these participants were collected by face-to-face interviews. Vaginal excretions from each participant were sampled at 28-36+6 weeks of pregnancy using a sterile swab. DNA corresponding to Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Ureaplasma urealyticum (UU), Candida albicans, group B streptococci (GBS), herpes simplex virus-1 (HSV-1), and HSV-2 were detected in each participant by real-time polymerase chain reaction. A model of Bayesian discriminant analysis was established and then verified by a multicenter validation group that included 500 participants in the case subgroup and 500 participants in the control subgroup from five different hospitals in the Shaanxi province, respectively. The sociological characteristics were not significantly different between the case and control subgroups in both training and validation groups (all P > 0.05). In training group, the infection rates of UU (11.6% vs. 3.7%), CT (17.0% vs. 5.6%), and GBS (22.3% vs. 6.5%) showed statistically different between the case and control subgroups (all P case and control subgroups (P case and control subgroup were 84.1% and 86.8% in the training and validation groups, respectively

  20. 20. Prediction of 10-year risk of hard coronary events among Saudi adults based on prevalence of heart disease risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Adil Soofi

    2015-10-01

    Conclusions: Our study is the first to estimate the 10-year risk of HCE among adults in an emerging country and discovered a significant proportion of younger aged population are at risk for development of hard coronary events. Public awareness programs to control risk factors are warranted.

  1. Can body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and waist-height ratio predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liping

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Obesity is associated with metabolic risk factors. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio (WHR and waist-height ratio (WHtR are used to predict the risk of obesity related diseases. However, it has not been examined whether these four indicators can detect the clustering of metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects. Methods There are 772 Chinese subjects in the present study. Metabolic risk factors including high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, and glucose intolerance were identified according to the criteria from WHO. All statistical analyses were performed separately according to sex by using the SPSS 12.0. Results BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values were all significantly associated with blood pressure, glucose, triglyceride and also with the number of metabolic risk factors in both male and female subjects (all of P Conclusion The BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values can similarly predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects.

  2. Prevalence of cardiovascular risks factors and 10 year predictions of coronary heart disease in seafarers of Pertamina shipping (Indonesia)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Purnawarma, Irwin GNI; Jensen, Olaf Chresten; Canals, ML

    2011-01-01

    independent CHD risk factors were Obesity (BMI >25%, 56%), dislipidemia (TC >200mg/dL and/or TG >150mg/dL, 72.1%), Smoking (43.7%) and Lack of Exercise (43.7%). After adjusting age and comparison to BMI and Cholesterol levels, in older age group seafarers (50-55 yrs old), the risk of a cardiovascular event...

  3. Do Maternal Caregiver Perceptions of Childhood Obesity Risk Factors and Obesity Complications Predict Support for Prevention Initiatives Among African Americans?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Dayna S; Alfonso, Moya L; Cao, Chunhua; Wright, Alesha R

    2017-07-01

    Objectives African American maternal caregiver support for prevention of childhood obesity may be a factor in implementing, monitoring, and sustaining children's positive health behaviors. However, little is known about how perceptions of childhood obesity risk factors and health complications influence caregivers' support of childhood obesity prevention strategies. The objective of this study was to determine if childhood obesity risk factors and health complications were associated with maternal caregivers' support for prevention initiatives. Methods A convenience sample of maternal caregivers (N = 129, ages 22-65 years) completed the childhood obesity perceptions (COP) survey. A linear regression was conducted to determine whether perceptions about childhood obesity risk factors and subsequent health complications influenced caregivers' support for prevention strategies. Results Caregivers' perceptions of childhood obesity risk factors were moderate (M = 3.4; SD = 0.64), as were their perceptions of obesity-related health complications (M = 3.3; SD = 0.75); however, they perceived a high level of support for prevention strategies (M = 4.2; SD = 0.74). In the regression model, only health complications were significantly associated with caregiver support (β = 0.348; p obesity prevention efforts should emphasize health complications by providing education and strategies that promote self-efficacy and outcome expectations among maternal caregivers.

  4. Factors Affecting Retention Behavior: A Model To Predict At-Risk Students. AIR 1997 Annual Forum Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadler, William E.; Cohen, Frederic L.; Kockesen, Levent

    This paper describes a methodology used in an on-going retention study at New York University (NYU) to identify a series of easily measured factors affecting student departure decisions. Three logistic regression models for predicting student retention were developed, each containing data available at three distinct times during the first…

  5. The Role of Cognitive Factors in Predicting Balance and Fall Risk in a Neuro-Rehabilitation Setting

    OpenAIRE

    Saverino, A.; Waller, D.; Rantell, K.; Parry, R.; Moriarty, A.; Playford, E. D.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction\\ud \\ud There is a consistent body of evidence supporting the role of cognitive functions, particularly executive function, in the elderly and in neurological conditions which become more frequent with ageing. The aim of our study was to assess the role of different domains of cognitive functions to predict balance and fall risk in a sample of adults with various neurological conditions in a rehabilitation setting.\\ud \\ud Methods\\ud \\ud This was a prospective, cohort study conduct...

  6. Risk Factors and Predictive Model Development of Thirty-Day Post-Operative Surgical Site Infection in the Veterans Administration Surgical Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xinli; Nylander, William; Smith, Tracy; Han, Soonhee; Gunnar, William

    2018-04-01

    Surgical site infection (SSI) complicates approximately 2% of surgeries in the Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals. Surgical site infections are responsible for increased morbidity, length of hospital stay, cost, and mortality. Surgical site infection can be minimized by modifying risk factors. In this study, we identified risk factors and developed accurate predictive surgical specialty-specific SSI risk prediction models for the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) surgery population. In a retrospective observation study, surgical patients who underwent surgery from October 2013 to September 2016 from 136 VA hospitals were included. The Veteran Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) database was used for the pre-operative demographic and clinical characteristics, intra-operative characteristics, and 30-day post-operative outcomes. The study population represents 11 surgical specialties: neurosurgery, urology, podiatry, otolaryngology, general, orthopedic, plastic, thoracic, vascular, cardiac coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and cardiac valve/other surgery. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed for the 30-day post-operative SSIs. Among 354,528 surgical procedures, 6,538 (1.8%) had SSIs within 30 days. Surgical site infection rates varied among surgical specialty (0.7%-3.0%). Surgical site infection rates were higher in emergency procedures, procedures with long operative duration, greater complexity, and higher relative value units. Other factors associated with increased SSI risk were high level of American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification (level 4 and 5), dyspnea, open wound/infection, wound classification, ascites, bleeding disorder, chemotherapy, smoking, history of severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), radiotherapy, steroid use for chronic conditions, and weight loss. Each surgical specialty had a distinct combination of risk factors. Accurate SSI risk-predictive surgery specialty

  7. Predictive values of some atherogenic risk factors in young workers occupationally exposed to vinyl chloride and heavy metals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aziza Abdel Azim Saad

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional risk factors do not explain all of the risk for incident coronary heart disease (CHD events. Human susceptibility to atherosclerosis and consequently coronary heart disease is maximally exhibited when the environment is unfavorable, especially in workplace. Thus, the present work was undertaken to study the relation of lipoprotein (a to the other atherogenic risk factors in young workers occupationally exposed to vinyl chloride or some heavy metals by studying the effect of exposure to these agents on the lipid profiles, immunological parameters and the antioxidant defense enzyme system. The results of this study revealed that, in metalists, the cluster features of dyslipidemia, impairment in antioxidant defense mechanism and high levels of Lp (a, CICs, C3 and C4 represent unfortunate events on their cardiovascular system. In VCW, vinyl chloride metabolites caused severe oxidative stress reflected by impairment in the antioxidant defense accompanied by propagation of lipid peroxidation. Additionally, the elevated levels of Lp (a, CICs, C3 and C4 may point out to their role as atherogenic risk factors in those workers. In conclusion, young workers occupationally exposed to VC may be at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease in spite of having normolipidemia.

  8. A prospective investigation of predictive and modifiable risk factors for breast cancer in unaffected BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene carriers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guinan, Emer M; Hussey, Juliette; McGarrigle, Sarah A; Healy, Laura A; O’Sullivan, Jacintha N; Bennett, Kathleen; Connolly, Elizabeth M

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common female cancer worldwide. The lifetime risk of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer is approximately 12.5%. For women who carry the deleterious mutation in either of the BRCA genes, BRCA1 or BRCA2, the risk of developing breast or ovarian cancer is significantly increased. In recent years there has been increased penetrance of BRCA1 and BRCA2 associated breast cancer, prompting investigation into the role of modifiable risk factors in this group. Previous investigations into this topic have relied on participants recalling lifetime weight changes and subjective methods of recording physical activity. The influence of obesity-related biomarkers, which may explain the link between obesity, physical activity and breast cancer risk, has not been investigated prospectively in this group. This paper describes the design of a prospective cohort study investigating the role of predictive and modifiable risk factors for breast cancer in unaffected BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene mutation carriers. Participants will be recruited from breast cancer family risk clinics and genetics clinics. Lifestyle risk factors that will be investigated will include body composition, metabolic syndrome and its components, physical activity and dietary intake. PBMC telomere length will be measured as a potential predictor of breast cancer occurrence. Measurements will be completed on entry to the study and repeated at two years and five years. Participants will also be followed annually by questionnaire to track changes in risk factor status and to record cancer occurrence. Data will be analysed using multiple regression models. The study has an accrual target of 352 participants. The results from this study will provide valuable information regarding the role of modifiable lifestyle risk factors for breast cancer in women with a deleterious mutation in the BRCA gene. Additionally, the study will attempt to identify potential blood biomarkers which may be predictive

  9. [Risk factors of schizophrenia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suvisaari, Jaana

    2010-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a multifactorial, neurodevelopmental disorder caused by a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. Disturbances of brain development begin prenatally, while different environmental insults further affect postnatal brain maturation during childhood and adolescence. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have succeeded in identifying hundreds of new risk variants for common, multifactorial diseases. In schizophrenia research, GWAS have found several rare copy number variants that considerably increase the risk of schizophrenia, and have shown an association between schizophrenia and the major histocompatibility complex. Research on environmental risk factors in recent years has provided new information particularly on risk factors related to pregnancy and childhood rearing environment. Gene-environment interactions have become a central research topic. There is evidence that genetically susceptible children are more vulnerable to the effects of unstable childhood rearing environment and other environmental risk factors.

  10. Predicting type 2 diabetes using genetic and environmental risk factors in a multi-ethnic Malaysian cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, N; Abdul Murad, N A; Mohd Haniff, E A; Syafruddin, S E; Attia, J; Oldmeadow, C; Kamaruddin, M A; Abd Jalal, N; Ismail, N; Ishak, M; Jamal, R; Scott, R J; Holliday, E G

    2017-08-01

    Malaysia has a high and rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). While environmental (non-genetic) risk factors for the disease are well established, the role of genetic variations and gene-environment interactions remain understudied in this population. This study aimed to estimate the relative contributions of environmental and genetic risk factors to T2D in Malaysia and also to assess evidence for gene-environment interactions that may explain additional risk variation. This was a case-control study including 1604 Malays, 1654 Chinese and 1728 Indians from the Malaysian Cohort Project. The proportion of T2D risk variance explained by known genetic and environmental factors was assessed by fitting multivariable logistic regression models and evaluating McFadden's pseudo R 2 and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Models with and without the genetic risk score (GRS) were compared using the log likelihood ratio Chi-squared test and AUCs. Multiplicative interaction between genetic and environmental risk factors was assessed via logistic regression within and across ancestral groups. Interactions were assessed for the GRS and its 62 constituent variants. The models including environmental risk factors only had pseudo R 2 values of 16.5-28.3% and AUC of 0.75-0.83. Incorporating a genetic score aggregating 62 T2D-associated risk variants significantly increased the model fit (likelihood ratio P-value of 2.50 × 10 -4 -4.83 × 10 -12 ) and increased the pseudo R 2 by about 1-2% and AUC by 1-3%. None of the gene-environment interactions reached significance after multiple testing adjustment, either for the GRS or individual variants. For individual variants, 33 out of 310 tested associations showed nominal statistical significance with 0.001 variation in Malaysian population groups. If gene-environment interactions involving common genetic variants exist, they are likely of small effect, requiring substantially larger samples for

  11. Risk factors that predict mortality in patients with blunt chest wall trauma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battle, Ceri E; Hutchings, Hayley; Evans, Phillip A

    2012-01-01

    The risk factors for mortality following blunt chest wall trauma have neither been well established or summarised. To summarise the risk factors for mortality in blunt chest wall trauma patients based on available evidence in the literature. A systematic review of English and non-English articles using MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library from their introduction until May 2010. Additional studies were identified by hand-searching bibliographies and contacting relevant clinical experts. Grey literature was sought by searching abstracts from all Emergency Medicine conferences. Broad search terms and inclusion criteria were used to reduce the number of missed studies. A two step study selection process was used. All published and unpublished observational studies were included if they investigated estimates of association between a risk factor and mortality for blunt chest wall trauma patients. A two step data extraction process using pre-defined data fields, including study quality indicators. Each study was appraised using a previously designed quality assessment tool and the STROBE checklist. Where sufficient data were available, odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Mantel-Haenszel method for the risk factors investigated. The I(2) statistic was calculated for combined studies in order to assess heterogeneity. Age, number of rib fractures, presence of pre-existing disease and pneumonia were found to be related to mortality in 29 identified studies. Combined odds ratio of 1.98 (1.86-2.11, 95% CI), 2.02 (1.89-2.15, 95% CI), 2.43 (1.03-5.72, 95% CI) and 5.24 (3.51-7.82) for mortality were calculated for blunt chest wall trauma patients aged 65 years or more, with three or more rib fractures, pre-existing conditions and pneumonia respectively. The risk factors for mortality in patients sustaining blunt chest wall trauma were a patient age of 65 years or more, three or more rib fractures and the presence of pre-existing disease especially

  12. Cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Peter; Abildstrøm, Steen Z.; Jespersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Aim European society of cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in asymptomatic individuals is based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, which estimates individual 10-year risk of death from CVD. We assessed the potential...

  13. Maternal risk factors predicting child physical characteristics and dysmorphology in fetal alcohol syndrome and partial fetal alcohol syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Philip A; Tabachnick, Barbara G; Gossage, J Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene

    2011-12-01

    Previous research in South Africa revealed very high rates of fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), of 46-89 per 1000 among young children. Maternal and child data from studies in this community summarize the multiple predictors of FAS and partial fetal alcohol syndrome (PFAS). Sequential regression was employed to examine influences on child physical characteristics and dysmorphology from four categories of maternal traits: physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking. Then, a structural equation model (SEM) was constructed to predict influences on child physical characteristics. Individual sequential regressions revealed that maternal drinking measures were the most powerful predictors of a child's physical anomalies (R² = .30, p < .001), followed by maternal demographics (R² = .24, p < .001), maternal physical characteristics (R²=.15, p < .001), and childbearing variables (R² = .06, p < .001). The SEM utilized both individual variables and the four composite categories of maternal traits to predict a set of child physical characteristics, including a total dysmorphology score. As predicted, drinking behavior is a relatively strong predictor of child physical characteristics (β = 0.61, p < .001), even when all other maternal risk variables are included; higher levels of drinking predict child physical anomalies. Overall, the SEM model explains 62% of the variance in child physical anomalies. As expected, drinking variables explain the most variance. But this highly controlled estimation of multiple effects also reveals a significant contribution played by maternal demographics and, to a lesser degree, maternal physical and childbearing variables. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The Role of Cognitive Factors in Predicting Balance and Fall Risk in a Neuro-Rehabilitation Setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saverino, A; Waller, D; Rantell, K; Parry, R; Moriarty, A; Playford, E D

    2016-01-01

    There is a consistent body of evidence supporting the role of cognitive functions, particularly executive function, in the elderly and in neurological conditions which become more frequent with ageing. The aim of our study was to assess the role of different domains of cognitive functions to predict balance and fall risk in a sample of adults with various neurological conditions in a rehabilitation setting. This was a prospective, cohort study conducted in a single centre in the UK. 114 participants consecutively admitted to a Neuro-Rehabilitation Unit were prospectively assessed for fall accidents. Baseline assessment included a measure of balance (Berg Balance Scale) and a battery of standard cognitive tests measuring executive function, speed of information processing, verbal and visual memory, visual perception and intellectual function. The outcomes of interest were the risk of becoming a faller, balance and fall rate. Two tests of executive function were significantly associated with fall risk, the Stroop Colour Word Test (IRR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.03) and the number of errors on part B of the Trail Making Test (IRR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03-1.49). Composite scores of executive function, speed of information processing and visual memory domains resulted in 2 to 3 times increased likelihood of having better balance (OR 2.74 95% CI 1.08 to 6.94, OR 2.72 95% CI 1.16 to 6.36 and OR 2.44 95% CI 1.11 to 5.35 respectively). Our results show that specific subcomponents of executive functions are able to predict fall risk, while a more global cognitive dysfunction is associated with poorer balance.

  15. The Role of Cognitive Factors in Predicting Balance and Fall Risk in a Neuro-Rehabilitation Setting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Saverino

    Full Text Available There is a consistent body of evidence supporting the role of cognitive functions, particularly executive function, in the elderly and in neurological conditions which become more frequent with ageing. The aim of our study was to assess the role of different domains of cognitive functions to predict balance and fall risk in a sample of adults with various neurological conditions in a rehabilitation setting.This was a prospective, cohort study conducted in a single centre in the UK. 114 participants consecutively admitted to a Neuro-Rehabilitation Unit were prospectively assessed for fall accidents. Baseline assessment included a measure of balance (Berg Balance Scale and a battery of standard cognitive tests measuring executive function, speed of information processing, verbal and visual memory, visual perception and intellectual function. The outcomes of interest were the risk of becoming a faller, balance and fall rate.Two tests of executive function were significantly associated with fall risk, the Stroop Colour Word Test (IRR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.03 and the number of errors on part B of the Trail Making Test (IRR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03-1.49. Composite scores of executive function, speed of information processing and visual memory domains resulted in 2 to 3 times increased likelihood of having better balance (OR 2.74 95% CI 1.08 to 6.94, OR 2.72 95% CI 1.16 to 6.36 and OR 2.44 95% CI 1.11 to 5.35 respectively.Our results show that specific subcomponents of executive functions are able to predict fall risk, while a more global cognitive dysfunction is associated with poorer balance.

  16. Risk Factors in Preschool Children for Predicting Asthma During the Preschool Age and the Early School Age: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Yixia; Chen, Zhimin; Liu, Enmei; Xiang, Li; Zhao, Deyu; Hong, Jianguo

    2017-11-18

    The aim of this study was to identify risk factors of asthma among children asthma during the preschool age and early school age (≤ 10 years of age). MEDLINE, Cochrane, EMBASE, and Google Scholar databases were searched until June 30, 2017. Prospective or retrospective cohort and case-control studies were included. Studies had to have evaluated risk factors or a predictive model for developing asthma in children ≤ 6 years of age or persistent asthma in early school age. A total of 17 studies were included in the analysis. Factors associated with developing asthma in children ≤ 10 years of age (both pre-school and early school age) included male gender (pooled OR = 1.70, P asthma (pooled OR = 2.20, P asthma in early school age (pooled OR = 1.51, P = 0.030 and pooled OR = 2.59, P asthma predictive models (e.g., API, PIAMA, PAPS) had relatively low sensitivity (range, 21% to 71.4%) but high specificity (range, 69% to 98%). The study found that male gender, exposure to smoke, atopic dermatitis, family history of asthma, history of wheezing, and serum IgE level ≥ 60 kU/l or having specific IgE were significantly associated with developing asthma by either preschool or early school age. Asthma predictive models can be developed by those risk factors.

  17. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, K M; Paiva, L L; Sanchez, S E; Revilla, L; Lopez, T; Yasuda, M B; Yanez, N D; Gelaye, B; Williams, M A

    2011-01-24

    Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and visceral adiposity index (VAI) were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG). For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS.

  18. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Knowles

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP. Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC, body mass index (BMI, waist-hip ratio (WHR, waist-height ratio (WHtR, and visceral adiposity index (VAI were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG. For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS.

  19. Risk factors for neoplasms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

    1991-06-01

    A broad survey is given of risk factors for neoplasms. The main carcinogenic substances (including also ionizing radiation and air pollution) are listed, and are correlated with the risk factors for various cancers most frequently explained and discussed in the literature. The study is intended to serve as a basis for a general assessment of the incidence of neoplasms in children, and of cancer mortality in the entire population of Bavaria in the years 1983-1989, or 1979-1988, respectively, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment-related health survey. The study therefore takes into account not only ionizing radiation as a main risk factor, but also other risk factors detectable within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations and their effects, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or the social status. (orig./MG) [de

  20. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Tissue factor pathway inhibitor for prediction of placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes in high-risk women: AngioPred study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurélie Di Bartolomeo

    Full Text Available The study aimed to evaluate if the rate of tissue factor pathway inhibitor during pregnancy and following delivery could be a predictive factor for placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes in high-risk women.This was a prospective multicentre cohort study of 200 patients at a high risk of occurrence or recurrence of placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes conducted between June 2008 and October 2010. Measurements of tissue factor pathway inhibitor resistance (normalized ratio and tissue factor pathway inhibitor activity were performed for the last 72 patients at 20, 24, 28, 32, and 36 weeks of gestation and during the postpartum period.Overall, 15 patients presented a placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcome. There was no difference in normalized tissue factor pathway inhibitor ratios between patients with and without placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes during pregnancy and in the post-partum period. Patients with placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes had tissue factor pathway inhibitor activity rates that were significantly higher than those in patients without at as early as 24 weeks of gestation. The same results were observed following delivery.Among high-risk women, the tissue factor pathway inhibitor activity of patients with gestational vascular complications is higher than that in other patients. Hence, these markers could augment a screening strategy that includes an analysis of angiogenic factors as well as clinical and ultrasound imaging with Doppler measurement of the uterine arteries.

  2. Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniël B van Schalkwijk

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to investigate whether lipoprotein metabolism indicators can improve cardiovascular risk prediction and therapy management. METHODS AND RESULTS: We calculated lipoprotein metabolism indicators for 1981 subjects (145 cases, 1836 controls from the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort in which NMR lipoprotein profiles were measured. We applied a statistical learning algorithm using a support vector machine to select conventional risk factors and lipoprotein metabolism indicators that contributed to predicting risk for general cardiovascular disease. Risk prediction was quantified by the change in the Area-Under-the-ROC-Curve (ΔAUC and by risk reclassification (Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI. Two VLDL lipoprotein metabolism indicators (VLDLE and VLDLH improved cardiovascular risk prediction. We added these indicators to a multivariate model with the best performing conventional risk markers. Our method significantly improved both CVD prediction and risk reclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Two calculated VLDL metabolism indicators significantly improved cardiovascular risk prediction. These indicators may help to reduce prescription of unnecessary cholesterol-lowering medication, reducing costs and possible side-effects. For clinical application, further validation is required.

  3. Risk factors for predicting visual field progression in Chinese patients with primary open-angle glaucoma: A retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Kuo-Hsuan; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Liu, Catherine Jui-Ling

    2015-07-01

    Glaucoma is a leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide. It is characterized by progressive deterioration of the visual field (VF) that results in a complete loss of vision. This study aimed to determine the risk factors associated with VF progression in Chinese patients with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). We reviewed the charts of POAG patients who visited our clinic between July 2009 and June 2010. We included patients with five or more reliable VF tests using the Humphrey Field Analyzer (Humphrey Instruments, San Leandro, CA, USA) during a period of at least 2 years. The scoring system of the Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study (CIGTS) was used to code the VF. Progression was defined as an increasing score ≥3, compared to the averaged baseline data. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the risk factors of VF progression. There were 92 patients (representing 92 eyes) with an average of 8.9 reliable VFs over a mean follow up of 5.4 years. Multivariate logistic regression showed that eyes with more VF tests [odds ratio (OR) = 1.500, p < 0.010] and either increased peak intraocular pressure (IOP) (OR = 1.235, p = 0.044) or a wide IOP range (OR = 1.165, p = 0.041) favored VF progression. High myopia (less than -6.0 D) was not a risk factor (OR = 1.289, p = 0.698) for VF progression in this study. In addition to a greater number of VF tests, Chinese patients with treated POAG who experienced a high peak IOP or a wide range of IOP during follow up were more likely to have VF deterioration. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Taiwan.

  4. Prediction Effects of Personal, Psychosocial, and Occupational Risk Factors on Low Back Pain Severity Using Artificial Neural Networks Approach in Industrial Workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darvishi, Ebrahim; Khotanlou, Hassan; Khoubi, Jamshid; Giahi, Omid; Mahdavi, Neda

    2017-09-01

    This study aimed to provide an empirical model of predicting low back pain (LBP) by considering the occupational, personal, and psychological risk factor interactions in workers population employed in industrial units using an artificial neural networks approach. A total of 92 workers with LBP as the case group and 68 healthy workers as a control group were selected in various industrial units with similar occupational conditions. The demographic information and personal, occupational, and psychosocial factors of the participants were collected via interview, related questionnaires, consultation with occupational medicine, and also the Rapid Entire Body Assessment worksheet and National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index software. Then, 16 risk factors for LBP were used as input variables to develop the prediction model. Networks with various multilayered structures were developed using MATLAB. The developed neural networks with 1 hidden layer and 26 neurons had the least error of classification in both training and testing phases. The mean of classification accuracy of the developed neural networks for the testing and training phase data were about 88% and 96%, respectively. In addition, the mean of classification accuracy of both training and testing data was 92%, indicating much better results compared with other methods. It appears that the prediction model using the neural network approach is more accurate compared with other applied methods. Because occupational LBP is usually untreatable, the results of prediction may be suitable for developing preventive strategies and corrective interventions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. Constructing the Suicide Risk Index (SRI): does it work in predicting suicidal behavior in young adults mediated by proximal factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Maebh; Dooley, Barbara; Fitzgerald, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    Suicide is a key concern among young adults. The aim of the study was to (1) construct a suicide risk index (SRI) based on demographic, situational, and behavioral factors known to be linked to suicidal behavior and (2) investigate whether the association between the SRI and suicidal behavior was mediated by proximal processes (personal factors, coping strategies, and emotional states). Participants consisted of 7,558 individuals aged 17-25 years (M = 20.35, SD = 1.91). Nearly 22% (n = 1,542) reported self-harm and 7% (n = 499) had attempted suicide. Mediation analysis revealed both a direct effect (ß = .299, 95% CI = [.281, .317], p suicidal behavior. The strongest mediators were levels of self-esteem, depression, and avoidant coping. Interventions to increase self-esteem, reduce depression, and encourage adaptive coping strategies may prevent suicidal behavior in young people.

  6. Post-traumatic stress symptoms and post-traumatic growth in 223 childhood cancer survivors: predictive risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta eTremolada

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available With modern therapies and supportive care, survival rates of childhood cancer have increased considerably. However, there are long-term psychological sequelae of these treatments that may not manifest until pediatric survivors are into adulthood. The prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD in young adult survivors of childhood cancer ranges from 6.2% to 22%; associated risk factors are young age at the assessment, female gender, low education level and some disease-related factors. The aim of this study was to investigate, in adolescent and young adult (AYA survivors of childhood cancer, the incidence and severity of post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS, and to identify the risk factors and the associated post-traumatic growth (PTG index.Participants were 223 AYA cancer survivors recruited during follow-up visits in the Oncohematology Clinic of the Department of Child and Woman’s Health, University of Padua. Data were collected from self-report questionnaires on PTSS incidence, PTG mean score, perceived social support, and medical and socio-demographic factors. Ex-patients’ mean age at the assessment was 19.33 years (SD = 3.01, 15-25, 123 males and 100 females, with a mean of years off-therapy of 9.64 (SD=4.17. Most (52.5% had survived an hematological disorder and 47.5% a solid tumor when they were aged, on average, 8.02 years (SD=4.40.The main results indicated a moderate presence of clinical (≥9 symptoms: 9.4% and sub-clinical PTSS (6-8 symptoms: 11.2%, with the avoidance criterion most often encountered. Re-experience symptoms and PTG mean score were significantly associated (r=0.24 p=0.0001. A hierarchical regression model (R2 = 0.08; F = 1.46; p = 0.05 identified female gender (β = 0.16; p = 0.05 and less perceived social support (β = -0.43; p = 0.05 as risk factors to developing PTSS. Another hierarchical regression model assessed the possible predictors of the PTG total score (R2 = 0.36; F = 9.1; p = 0.0001, with

  7. HPV and high-risk gene expression profiles predict response to chemoradiotherapy in head and neck cancer, independent of clinical factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jong, Monique C. de; Pramana, Jimmy; Knegjens, Joost L.; Balm, Alfons J.M.; Brekel, Michiel W.M. van den; Hauptmann, Michael; Begg, Adrian C.; Rasch, Coen R.N.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to combine gene expression profiles and clinical factors to provide a better prediction model of local control after chemoradiotherapy for advanced head and neck cancer. Material and methods: Gene expression data were available for a series of 92 advanced stage head and neck cancer patients treated with primary chemoradiotherapy. The effect of the Chung high-risk and Slebos HPV expression profiles on local control was analyzed in a model with age at diagnosis, gender, tumor site, tumor volume, T-stage and N-stage and HPV profile status. Results: Among 75 patients included in the study, the only factors significantly predicting local control were tumor site (oral cavity vs. Pharynx, hazard ratio 4.2 [95% CI 1.4-12.5]), Chung gene expression status (high vs. Low risk profile, hazard ratio 4.4 [95% CI 1.5-13.3]) and HPV profile (negative vs. Positive profile, hazard ratio 6.2 [95% CI 1.7-22.5]). Conclusions: Chung high-risk expression profile and a negative HPV expression profile were significantly associated with increased risk of local recurrence after chemoradiotherapy in advanced pharynx and oral cavity tumors, independent of clinical factors.

  8. The prediction of the in-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients by electrocardiogram (ECG) dispersion mapping compared with established risk factors and predictive scores--a pilot study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kellett, John

    2011-08-01

    ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM) is a novel technique that analyzes low amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI). This study compared the ability of ECG-DM to predict in-hospital mortality with traditional risk factors such as age, vital signs and co-morbid diagnoses, as well as three predictive scores: the Simple Clinical Score (SCS)--based on clinical and ECG findings, and two Medical Admission Risk System scores--one based on vital signs and laboratory data (MARS), and one only on laboratory data (LD).

  9. Quadratic prediction of factor scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wansbeek, T

    1999-01-01

    Factor scores are naturally predicted by means of their conditional expectation given the indicators y. Under normality this expectation is linear in y but in general it is an unknown function of y. II is discussed that under nonnormality factor scores can be more precisely predicted by a quadratic

  10. [Risk factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Haixia; Tang, Yangjiang; Wang, Lan; Shi, Chaoli; Feng, Yulin; Yi, Qun

    2016-01-26

    To explore the risk factors associated with long-term mortality and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) for long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). A total of 234 patients with confirmed PE from the medical departments of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2010 and December 2012 were enrolled, and these meeting the inclusion criteria were followed-up for 2 years after discharge. The long-term mortality was calculated and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the risk factors associated with long-term mortality of PE. All the patients were assessed the comorbidity burden with the CCI, and survival analysis was used to study its value in predicting long-term mortality in patients with PE. A total of 176 PE patients were finally included in this study, and 53 patients died during the follow-up period, with 2 years' mortality 30.1%. The univariate analysis showed diabetes (P=0.034), malignant neoplasm (P=0.001), chronic lung disease (P=0.035), liver disease (P=0.048), in bed for a long time (P=0.049), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (P=0.016) were associated with the long-term mortality of PE patients. Among these risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed malignant neoplasm (OR=9.28, 95%CI: 2.85-31.00, P=0.003), chronic lung disease (OR=2.96, 95%CI: 1.15-7.62, P=0.024), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (OR=4.08, 95%CI: 1.64-10.20, P=0.003) were the independent risk factors. The median CCI scores for died PE patients during follow-up was higher than that for the survived PE patients ((2(1, 3) vs 1(0, 2), Prisk of long-term mortality compared with patients with no comorbidity (CCI=0) (95%CI: 1.14-6.00, P=0.024). The per 1-score increase of CCI was associated with 1.76-fold increased risk of long-term mortality in PE patients (95%CI: 1.04-2.97, P=0.035). Survival analysis showed that the 2-year cumulative survival of PE patients with CCI score≥1 was significant lower

  11. Magnetic Resonance Volumetry: Prediction of Subjective Memory Complaints and Mild Cognitive Impairment, and Associations with Genetic and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigbjørn Rogne

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Subjective memory complaints (SMC are strong predictors of mild cognitive impairment (MCI and subsequent Alzheimer’s disease. Our aims were to see if fully automated cerebral MR volume measurements could distinguish subjects with SMC and MCI from controls, and if probable parental late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD, apolipoprotein E ε4 genotype, total plasma homocysteine, and cardiovascular risk factors were associated with MR volumetric findings. Methods: 198 stroke-free subjects comprised the control (n = 58, the SMC (n = 25 and the MCI (n = 115 groups. Analysis of covariance and receiver operating characteristic curve was used to see if MR volumetry distinguished subjects with SMC and MCI from controls. Results: Subjects with SMC and MCI had significantly larger lateral ventricles and smaller hippocampal volumes than controls. The area under the curve in subjects with SMC and MCI compared to that of controls was less than 0.68 for all volumes of intracranial structures. There was an interaction between sex and probable parental LOAD for hippocampal volume, with a significant association between probable parental LOAD and hippocampal volume in women. Conclusions: Fully automated MR volumetry can distinguish subjects with SMC and MCI from controls in a general population, but insufficiently to assume a clear clinical role. Research on sporadic LOAD might benefit from a sex-specific search for genetic risk factors.

  12. Stroke survivors' endorsement of a "stress belief model" of stroke prevention predicts control of risk factors for recurrent stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, L Alison; Tuhrim, Stanley; Kronish, Ian M; Horowitz, Carol R

    2014-01-01

    Perceptions that stress causes and stress-reduction controls hypertension have been associated with poorer blood pressure (BP) control in hypertension populations. The current study investigated these "stress-model perceptions" in stroke survivors regarding prevention of recurrent stroke and the influence of these perceptions on patients' stroke risk factor control. Stroke and transient ischemic attack survivors (N=600) participated in an in-person interview in which they were asked about their beliefs regarding control of future stroke; BP and cholesterol were measured directly after the interview. Counter to expectations, patients who endorsed a "stress-model" but not a "medication-model" of stroke prevention were in better control of their stroke risk factors (BP and cholesterol) than those who endorsed a medication-model but not a stress-model of stroke prevention (OR for poor control=.54, Wald statistic=6.07, p=.01). This result was not explained by between group differences in patients' reported medication adherence. The results have implications for theory and practice, regarding the role of stress belief models and acute cardiac events, compared to chronic hypertension.

  13. Depressive symptoms and other risk factors predicting suicide in middle-aged men: a prospective cohort study among Korean Vietnam War veterans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Wook Yi

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. Few studies have prospectively examined whether depressive symptoms and other risk factors are associated with a higher risk of suicide death in individuals other than high-risk populations such as psychiatric patients and individuals with self-harm histories. The purpose of the study is to prospectively examine whether depressive symptoms assessed by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI are associated with greater risk of suicide death and whether depressive symptoms and other risk factors are independent predictors of suicide in general-risk populations. Another aim is to evaluate the sensitivity of the BDI for predicting suicide death.Methods. 10,238 Korean Vietnam War veterans (mean age: 56.3 years who participated in two surveys in 2001 were followed up for suicide mortality over 7.5 years.Results. 41 men died by suicide. Severely depressed participants had a higher adjusted hazard ratio (aHR = 3.4; 95% CI [1.5–7.7] of suicide than non-to-moderately depressed ones. Higher suicide risk was associated with more severe depressive symptoms (p for trend = 0.009. After adjustment for depressive symptoms and other factors, very poor health, low education, and past drinking were associated with higher suicide risk, while good health, body mass index, and marital status were not associated with suicide. The sensitivity at the cut-off score of 31 for detecting suicide was higher during the earlier 3.5 years of the follow-up (75%; 95% CI [50–90] than during the latter 4 years (60%; 95% CI [41–76].Conclusions. Depressive symptoms are a strong independent predictor and very poor health, low education, and drinking status may be independent predictors of future suicide. The BDI may have acceptable diagnostic properties as a risk assessment tool for identifying people with depression and suicidal potential among middle-aged men.

  14. Depressive symptoms and other risk factors predicting suicide in middle-aged men: a prospective cohort study among Korean Vietnam War veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Sang-Wook; Hong, Jae-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Background. Few studies have prospectively examined whether depressive symptoms and other risk factors are associated with a higher risk of suicide death in individuals other than high-risk populations such as psychiatric patients and individuals with self-harm histories. The purpose of the study is to prospectively examine whether depressive symptoms assessed by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) are associated with greater risk of suicide death and whether depressive symptoms and other risk factors are independent predictors of suicide in general-risk populations. Another aim is to evaluate the sensitivity of the BDI for predicting suicide death. Methods. 10,238 Korean Vietnam War veterans (mean age: 56.3 years) who participated in two surveys in 2001 were followed up for suicide mortality over 7.5 years. Results. 41 men died by suicide. Severely depressed participants had a higher adjusted hazard ratio (aHR = 3.4; 95% CI [1.5-7.7]) of suicide than non-to-moderately depressed ones. Higher suicide risk was associated with more severe depressive symptoms (p for trend = 0.009). After adjustment for depressive symptoms and other factors, very poor health, low education, and past drinking were associated with higher suicide risk, while good health, body mass index, and marital status were not associated with suicide. The sensitivity at the cut-off score of 31 for detecting suicide was higher during the earlier 3.5 years of the follow-up (75%; 95% CI [50-90]) than during the latter 4 years (60%; 95% CI [41-76]). Conclusions. Depressive symptoms are a strong independent predictor and very poor health, low education, and drinking status may be independent predictors of future suicide. The BDI may have acceptable diagnostic properties as a risk assessment tool for identifying people with depression and suicidal potential among middle-aged men.

  15. NT-proBNP is associated with coronary heart disease risk in healthy older women but fails to enhance prediction beyond established risk factors: results from the British Women's Heart and Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sattar, Naveed; Welsh, Paul; Sarwar, Nadeem; Danesh, John; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Davey Smith, George; Ebrahim, Shah; Lawlor, Debbie A

    2010-03-01

    Limited evidence suggests NT-proBNP improves prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) events but further data are needed, especially in people without pre-existing CHD and in women. We measured NT-proBNP in serum from 162 women with incident CHD events and 1226 controls (60-79 years) in a case-control study nested within the prospective British Women's Heart and Health Study. All cases and controls were free from CHD at baseline. We related NT-proBNP to CHD event risk, and determined to what extent NT-proBNP enhanced CHD risk prediction beyond established risk factors. The odds ratio for CHD per 1 standard deviation increase in log(e)NT-proBNP was 1.37 (95% CI: 1.13-1.68) in analyses adjusted for established CHD risk factors, social class, CRP and insulin. However, addition of log(e)NT-proBNP did not improve the discrimination of a prediction model including age, social class, smoking, physical activity, lipids, fasting glucose, waist:hip ratio, hypertension, statin and aspirin use, nor a standard Framingham risk score model; area under the receiver operator curve for the former model increased from 0.676 to 0.687 on inclusion of NT-proBNP (p=0.3). Furthermore, adding NT-proBNP did not improve calibration of a prediction model containing established risk factors, nor did inclusion more appropriately re-classify participants in relation to their final outcome. Findings were similar (independent associations, but no prediction improvement) for fasting insulin and CRP. These results caution against use of NT-proBNP for CHD risk prediction in healthy women and suggest a need for larger studies in both genders to resolve outstanding uncertainties.

  16. Prediction of difficult mask ventilation using a systematic assessment of risk factors vs. existing practice - a cluster randomised clinical trial in 94,006 patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørskov, A K; Wetterslev, J; Rosenstock, C V

    2017-01-01

    We compared implementation of systematic airway assessment with existing practice of airway assessment on prediction of difficult mask ventilation. Twenty-six departments were cluster-randomised to assess eleven risk factors for difficult airway management (intervention) or to continue with their......We compared implementation of systematic airway assessment with existing practice of airway assessment on prediction of difficult mask ventilation. Twenty-six departments were cluster-randomised to assess eleven risk factors for difficult airway management (intervention) or to continue...... with their existing airway assessment (control). In both groups, patients predicted as a difficult mask ventilation and/or difficult intubation were registered in the Danish Anaesthesia Database, with a notational summary of airway management. The trial's primary outcome was the respective incidence of unpredicted...... difficult and easy mask ventilation in the two groups. Among 94,006 patients undergoing mask ventilation, the incidence of unpredicted difficult mask ventilation in the intervention group was 0.91% and 0.88% in the control group; (OR) 0.98 (95% CI 0.66-1.44), p = 0.90. The incidence of patients predicted...

  17. Risk factors and a prediction model for lower limb lymphedema following lymphadenectomy in gynecologic cancer: a hospital-based retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroda, Kenji; Yamamoto, Yasuhiro; Yanagisawa, Manami; Kawata, Akira; Akiba, Naoya; Suzuki, Kensuke; Naritaka, Kazutoshi

    2017-07-25

    Lower limb lymphedema (LLL) is a chronic and incapacitating condition afflicting patients who undergo lymphadenectomy for gynecologic cancer. This study aimed to identify risk factors for LLL and to develop a prediction model for its occurrence. Pelvic lymphadenectomy (PLA) with or without para-aortic lymphadenectomy (PALA) was performed on 366 patients with gynecologic malignancies at Yaizu City Hospital between April 2002 and July 2014; we retrospectively analyzed 264 eligible patients. The intervals between surgery and diagnosis of LLL were calculated; the prevalence and risk factors were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods. We developed a prediction model with which patients were scored and classified as low-risk or high-risk. The cumulative incidence of LLL was 23.1% at 1 year, 32.8% at 3 years, and 47.7% at 10 years post-surgery. LLL developed after a median 13.5 months. Using regression analysis, body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m 2 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.616; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.030-2.535), PLA + PALA (HR, 2.323; 95% CI, 1.126-4.794), postoperative radiation therapy (HR, 2.469; 95% CI, 1.148-5.310), and lymphocyst formation (HR, 1.718; 95% CI, 1.120-2.635) were found to be independently associated with LLL; age, type of cancer, number of lymph nodes, retroperitoneal suture, chemotherapy, lymph node metastasis, herbal medicine, self-management education, or infection were not associated with LLL. The predictive score was based on the 4 associated variables; patients were classified as high-risk (scores 3-6) and low-risk (scores 0-2). LLL incidence was significantly greater in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group (HR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.440-3.324). The cumulative incidence at 5 years was 52.1% [95% CI, 42.9-62.1%] for the high-risk group and 28.9% [95% CI, 21.1-38.7%] for the low-risk group. The area under the receiver operator characteristics curve for the prediction model was 0.631 at 1 year, 0

  18. Human chorionic gonadotrophin regression rate as a predictive factor of postmolar gestational trophoblastic neoplasm in high-risk hydatidiform mole: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Bo Wook; Cho, Hanbyoul; Kim, Hyunki; Nam, Eun Ji; Kim, Sang Wun; Kim, Sunghoon; Kim, Young Tae; Kim, Jae-Hoon

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was early prediction of postmolar gestational trophoblastic neoplasm (GTN) after evacuation of high-risk mole, by comparison of human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) regression rates. Fifty patients with a high-risk mole initially and spontaneously regressing after molar evacuation were selected from January 1, 1996 to May 31, 2010 (spontaneous regression group). Fifty patients with a high-risk mole initially and progressing to postmolar GTN after molar evacuation were selected (postmolar GTN group). hCG regression rates represented as hCG/initial hCG were compared between the two groups. The sensitivity and specificity of these rates for prediction of postmolar GTN were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Multivariate analyses of associations between risk factors and postmolar GTN progression were performed. The mean regression rate of hCG between the two groups was compared. hCG regression rates represented as hCG/initial hCG (%) were 0.36% in the spontaneous regression group and 1.45% in the postmolar GTN group in the second week (p=0.003). Prediction of postmolar GTN by hCG regression rate revealed a sensitivity of 48.0% and specificity of 89.5% with a cut-off value of 0.716% and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.759 in the 2nd week (pfactor for postmolar GTN. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Immunological and cardiometabolic risk factors in the prediction of type 2 diabetes and coronary events: MONICA/KORA Augsburg case-cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Herder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: This study compares inflammation-related biomarkers with established cardiometabolic risk factors in the prediction of incident type 2 diabetes and incident coronary events in a prospective case-cohort study within the population-based MONICA/KORA Augsburg cohort. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Analyses for type 2 diabetes are based on 436 individuals with and 1410 individuals without incident diabetes. Analyses for coronary events are based on 314 individuals with and 1659 individuals without incident coronary events. Mean follow-up times were almost 11 years. Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC, changes in Akaike's information criterion (ΔAIC, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI and net reclassification index (NRI were calculated for different models. A basic model consisting of age, sex and survey predicted type 2 diabetes with an AUC of 0.690. Addition of 13 inflammation-related biomarkers (CRP, IL-6, IL-18, MIF, MCP-1/CCL2, IL-8/CXCL8, IP-10/CXCL10, adiponectin, leptin, RANTES/CCL5, TGF-β1, sE-selectin, sICAM-1; all measured in nonfasting serum increased the AUC to 0.801, whereas addition of cardiometabolic risk factors (BMI, systolic blood pressure, ratio total/HDL-cholesterol, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, parental diabetes increased the AUC to 0.803 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.111 [0.092-0.149] and 0.113 [0.093-0.149], respectively, compared to the basic model. The combination of all inflammation-related biomarkers and cardiometabolic risk factors yielded a further increase in AUC to 0.847 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.044 [0.028-0.066] compared to the cardiometabolic risk model. Corresponding AUCs for incident coronary events were 0.807, 0.825 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.018 [0.013-0.038] compared to the basic model, 0.845 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.038 [0.028-0.059] compared to the basic model and 0.851 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.006 [0.003-0.021] compared to the cardiometabolic risk model, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of multiple

  20. Cognitive and emotional factors predicting decisional conflict among high-risk breast cancer survivors who receive uninformative BRCA1/2 results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rini, Christine; O'Neill, Suzanne C; Valdimarsdottir, Heiddis; Goldsmith, Rachel E; Jandorf, Lina; Brown, Karen; DeMarco, Tiffani A; Peshkin, Beth N; Schwartz, Marc D

    2009-09-01

    To investigate high-risk breast cancer survivors' risk reduction decision making and decisional conflict after an uninformative BRCA1/2 test. Prospective, longitudinal study of 182 probands undergoing BRCA1/2 testing, with assessments 1-, 6-, and 12-months postdisclosure. Primary predictors were health beliefs and emotional responses to testing assessed 1-month postdisclosure. Main outcomes included women's perception of whether they had made a final risk management decision (decision status) and decisional conflict related to this issue. There were four patterns of decision making, depending on how long it took women to make a final decision and the stability of their decision status across assessments. Late decision makers and nondecision makers reported the highest decisional conflict; however, substantial numbers of women--even early and intermediate decision makers--reported elevated decisional conflict. Analyses predicting decisional conflict 1- and 12-months postdisclosure found that, after accounting for control variables and decision status, health beliefs and emotional factors predicted decisional conflict at different timepoints, with health beliefs more important 1 month after test disclosure and emotional factors more important 1 year later. Many of these women may benefit from decision making assistance. Copyright 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. Clinical risk factors predicting genital fungal infections with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor treatment: The ABCD nationwide dapagliflozin audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thong, Ken Yan; Yadagiri, Mahender; Barnes, Dennis Joseph; Morris, David Stuart; Chowdhury, Tahseen Ahmad; Chuah, Ling Ling; Robinson, Anthony Michael; Bain, Stephen Charles; Adamson, Karen Ann; Ryder, Robert Elford John

    2018-02-01

    Treatment of type 2 diabetes with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors may result in genital fungal infections. We investigated possible risk factors for developing such infections among patients treated with the SGLT2 inhibitor dapagliflozin. The Association of British Clinical Diabetologists (ABCD) collected data on patients treated with dapagliflozin in routine clinical practice from 59 diabetes centres. We assessed possible associations of patient's age, diabetes duration, body mass index, glycated haemoglobin, renal function, patient sex, ethnicity and prior genital fungal infection, urinary tract infection, urinary incontinence or nocturia, with the occurrence of ≥1 genital fungal infection within 26 weeks of treatment. 1049 out of 1116 patients (476 women, 573 men) were analysed. Baseline characteristics were, mean±SD, age 56.7±10.2years, BMI 35.5±6.9kg/m 2 and HbA 1c 9.4±1.5%. Only patient sex (13.2% women vs 3.3% men) and prior history of genital fungal infection (21.6% vs 7.3%) were found to be associated with occurrence of genital fungal infections after dapagliflozin treatment, adjusted OR 4.22 [95%CI 2.48,7.19], Prisks of developing genital fungal infections with dapagliflozin treatment. Copyright © 2017 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. All rights reserved.

  2. [Pathological gambling: risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouju, G; Grall-Bronnec, M; Landreat-Guillou, M; Venisse, J-L

    2011-09-01

    In France, consumption of gambling games increased by 148% between 1960 and 2005. In 2004, gamblers lost approximately 0.9% of household income, compared to 0.4% in 1960. This represents approximately 134 Euros per year and per head. In spite of this important increase, the level remains lower than the European average (1%). However, gambling practices may continue to escalate in France in the next few years, particularly with the recent announce of the legalisation of online games and sports betting. With the spread of legalised gambling, pathological gambling rates may increase in France in the next years, in response to more widely available and more attractive gambling opportunities. In this context, there is a need for better understanding of the risk factors that are implicated in the development and maintenance of pathological gambling. This paper briefly describes the major risk factors for pathological gambling by examining the recent published literature available during the first quarter of 2008. This documentary basis was collected by Inserm for the collective expert report procedure on Gambling (contexts and addictions). Seventy-two articles focusing on risk factors for pathological gambling were considered in this review. Only 47 of them were taken into account for analysis. The selection of these 47 publications was based on the guide on literature analysis established by the French National Agency for Accreditation and Assessment in Health (ANAES, 2000). Some publications from more recent literature have also been added, mostly about Internet gambling. We identify three major types of risk factors implicated in gambling problems: some of them are related to the subject (individual factors), others are related to the object of the addiction, here the gambling activity by itself (structural factors), and the last are related to environment (contextual or situational factors). Thus, the development and maintenance of pathological gambling seems to be

  3. Assessment of left atrial appendage function by transthoracic pulsed Doppler echocardiography: Comparing against transesophageal interrogation and predicting echocardiographic risk factors for stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wai, Shin Hnin; Kyu, Kyu; Galupo, Mary Joyce; Songco, Geronica G; Kong, William K F; Lee, Chi Hang; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Poh, Kian Keong

    2017-10-01

    Transesophageal echocardiographic (TEE) findings of left atrial appendage (LAA) thrombus, spontaneous echo contrast (SEC), and LAA dysfunction are established risk factors of cardioembolic stroke. The semi-invasive nature of TEE limits its utility as a routine risk stratification tool. We aim to correlate TEE and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) pulsed Doppler measurements of LAA flow velocities and use TTE measurements to predict TEE findings. We prospectively measured pulsed Doppler LAA flow velocities in 103 consecutive patients on TEE and TTE. There was a strong correlation between TEE and TTE LAA emptying velocity (LAA E) (r = .88, P < .001) and a moderate correlation between LAA filling velocities (r = .50, P < .001). TTE LAA E predicted the presence of thrombus or SEC independent of atrial fibrillation (AF). To predict the presence of thrombus or SEC, the optimal TTE LAA E cutoff was ≤30 cm/s in all patients (75% sensitive, 90% specific) and ≤31 cm/s in AF patients (80% sensitive, 79% specific). To predict LAA dysfunction (TEE E ≤ 20 cm/s), the optimal TTE LAA E cutoff was ≤27 cm/s (100% sensitive, 89% specific in all patients and 100% sensitive, 74% specific in AF patients). TTE assessment of LAA function is feasible and correlates well with the more invasive TEE method. It predicts the presence of thrombus, SEC, and LAA dysfunction on TEE. TTE LAA assessment has incremental value in thromboembolic risk stratification and should be utilized more frequently. © 2017, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Developmental Dyslexia: Predicting Individual Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Paul A.; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M.; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods: The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6…

  5. Clinical study on HAT and SEDAN score scales and related risk factors for predicting hemorrhagic transformation following thrombolysis in acute ischemic stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heng WEI

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective To investigate the value of HAT and SEDAN score scales in predicting hemorrhagic transformation (HT following the recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (rt-PA intravenous thrombolysis in acute ischemic stroke patients and risk factors affecting HT.  Methods A total of 143 patients with acute ischemic stroke underwent rt-PA intravenous thrombolysis within 4.50 h of onset and their clinical data were collected. According to head CT after thrombolysis, patients were divided into HT group (18 cases and non-HT group (125 cases. Single factor analysis was used to assess differences in HAT and SEDAN score scales and related risk factors of ischemic stroke in 2 groups, and further Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate independent predictors of HT. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was used to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of HAT and SEDAN score scales in predicting HT.  Results Univariate Logistic regression analysis showed that history of atrial fibrillation (AF, admission systolic blood pressure (SBP, admission blood glucose level, early low density of head CT, thrombolytic time window, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS, HAT and SEDAN scores were all risk factors for HT after thrombolysis (P < 0.05, for all. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that history of AF (OR = 1.677, 95% CI: 1.332-2.111; P = 0.000, admission SBP (OR = 1.102, 95% CI: 1.009-1.204; P = 0.031, admission blood glucose level (OR = 1.870, 95% CI: 1.119-3.125; P = 0.017, thrombolysis time window (OR = 1.030, 95%CI: 1.009-1.052; P = 0.005, NIHSS score (OR = 1.574, 95%CI: 1.186-2.090; P = 0.002, HAT score (OR = 2.515, 95%CI: 1.273-4.970;P = 0.008 and SEDAN score (OR = 2.413, 95%CI: 1.123-5.185; P = 0.024 were risk factors for HT after thrombolysis. ROC curve analysis showed that HAT score could predict HT with 94.40% sensitivity and 41.60% specificity, and area under curve (AUC was 0.70. SEDAN

  6. Utility of combinations of biomarkers, cognitive markers, and risk factors to predict conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease in patients in the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomar, Jesus J; Bobes-Bascaran, Maria T; Conejero-Goldberg, Concepcion; Davies, Peter; Goldberg, Terry E

    2011-09-01

    Biomarkers have become increasingly important in understanding neurodegenerative processes associated with Alzheimer disease. Markers include regional brain volumes, cerebrospinal fluid measures of pathological Aβ1-42 and total tau, cognitive measures, and individual risk factors. To determine the discriminative utility of different classes of biomarkers and cognitive markers by examining their ability to predict a change in diagnostic status from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease. Longitudinal study. We analyzed the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database to study patients with mild cognitive impairment who converted to Alzheimer disease (n = 116) and those who did not convert (n = 204) within a 2-year period. We determined the predictive utility of 25 variables from all classes of markers, biomarkers, and risk factors in a series of logistic regression models and effect size analyses. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative public database. Primary outcome measures were odds ratios, pseudo- R(2)s, and effect sizes. In comprehensive stepwise logistic regression models that thus included variables from all classes of markers, the following baseline variables predicted conversion within a 2-year period: 2 measures of delayed verbal memory and middle temporal lobe cortical thickness. In an effect size analysis that examined rates of decline, change scores for biomarkers were modest for 2 years, but a change in an everyday functional activities measure (Functional Assessment Questionnaire) was considerably larger. Decline in scores on the Functional Assessment Questionnaire and Trail Making Test, part B, accounted for approximately 50% of the predictive variance in conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease. Cognitive markers at baseline were more robust predictors of conversion than most biomarkers. Longitudinal analyses suggested that conversion appeared to be driven less by changes in the neurobiologic

  7. The EPOS-CC Score: An Integration of Independent, Tumor- and Patient-Associated Risk Factors to Predict 5-years Overall Survival Following Colorectal Cancer Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haga, Yoshio; Ikejiri, Koji; Wada, Yasuo; Ikenaga, Masakazu; Koike, Shoichiro; Nakamura, Seiji; Koseki, Masato

    2015-06-01

    Surgical audit is an essential task for the estimation of postoperative outcome and comparison of quality of care. Previous studies on surgical audits focused on short-term outcomes, such as postoperative mortality. We propose a surgical audit evaluating long-term outcome following colorectal cancer surgery. The predictive model for this audit is designated as 'Estimation of Postoperative Overall Survival for Colorectal Cancer (EPOS-CC)'. Thirty-one tumor-related and physiological variables were prospectively collected in 889 patients undergoing elective resection for colorectal cancer between April 2005 and April 2007 in 16 Japanese hospitals. Postoperative overall survival was assessed over a 5-years period. The EPOS-CC score was established by selecting significant variables in a uni- and multivariate analysis and allocating a risk-adjusted multiplication factor to each variable using Cox regression analysis. For validation, the EPOS-CC score was compared to the predictive power of UICC stage. Inter-hospital variability of the observed-to-estimated 5-years survival was assessed to estimate quality of care. Among the 889 patients, 804 (90%) completed the 5-years follow-up. Univariate analysis displayed a significant correlation with 5-years survival for 14 physiological and nine tumor-related variables (p model for the prediction of survival. Risk-adjusted multiplication factors between 1.5 (distant metastasis) and 0.16 (serum sodium level) were accorded to the different variables. The predictive power of EPOS-CC was superior to the one of UICC stage; area under the curve 0.87, 95% CI 0.85-0.90 for EPOS-CC, and 0.80, 0.76-0.83 for UICC stage, p < 0.001. Quality of care did not differ between hospitals. The EPOS-CC score including the independent variables age, performance status, serum sodium level, TNM stage, and lymphatic invasion is superior to the UICC stage in the prediction of 5-years overall survival. This higher accuracy might be explained by the

  8. Prediction of incidence and bio-psycho-socio-cultural risk factors of post-partum depression immediately after birth in an Iranian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdollahi, Fatemeh; Zarghami, Mehran; Sazlina, Shariff-Ghazali; Zain, Azhar Md; Mohammad, Asghari Jafarabadi; Lye, Munn-Sann

    2016-10-01

    Post-partum depression (PPD) is the most prevalent mental problem associated with childbirth. The purpose of the present study was to determine the incidence of early PPD and possible relevant risk factors among women attending primary health centers in Mazandaran province, Iran for the first time. A longitudinal cohort study was conducted among 2279 eligible women during weeks 32-42 of pregnancy to determine bio-psycho-socio-cultural risk factors of depression at 2 weeks post-partum using the Iranian version of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Univariate and hierarchical multiple logistic regression models were used for data analysis. Among 1,739 mothers whose EPDS scores were ≤ 12 during weeks 32-42 of gestation and at the follow-up study, the cumulative incidence rate of depression was 6.9% (120/1,739) at 2 weeks post-partum. In the multivariate model the factor that predicted depression symptomatology at 2 weeks post-partum was having psychiatric distress in pregnancy based on the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) (OR = 1.06, (95% CI: 1.04-1.09), p = 0.001). The risk of PPD also lower in those with sufficient parenting skills (OR = 0.78 (95% CI: 0.69-0.88), p = 0.001), increased marital satisfaction (OR = 0.94 (95% CI: 0.9-0.99), p = 0.03), increased frequency of practicing rituals (OR = 0.94 (95% CI: 0.89-0.99), p = 0.004) and in those whose husbands had better education (OR = 0.03 (95% CI: 0.88-0.99), p = 0.04). The findings indicated that a combination of demographic, sociological, psychological and cultural risk factors can make mothers vulnerable to PPD.

  9. Predictive factors for intrauterine growth restriction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albu, A R; Anca, A F; Horhoianu, V V; Horhoianu, I A

    2014-06-15

    Reduced fetal growth is seen in about 10% of the pregnancies but only a minority has a pathological background and is known as intrauterine growth restriction or fetal growth restriction (IUGR / FGR). Increased fetal and neonatal mortality and morbidity as well as adult pathologic conditions are often associated to IUGR. Risk factors for IUGR are easy to assess but have poor predictive value. For the diagnostic purpose, biochemical serum markers, ultrasound and Doppler study of uterine and spiral arteries, placental volume and vascularization, first trimester growth pattern are object of assessment today. Modern evaluations propose combined algorithms using these strategies, all with the goal of a better prediction of risk pregnancies.

  10. Traditional clinical risk factors predict clopidogrel hypo-responsiveness in unselected patients undergoing non-emergent percutaneous coronary intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ratcovich, Hanna; Holmvang, Lene; Johansson, Pär Inge

    2016-01-01

    patients with HPR and LPR. Nine hundred and twenty-three consecutive patients undergoing non-emergent PCI were enrolled. Platelet reactivity (PR) was determined using Multiplate assays. Patients were grouped into quintiles based on their PR values. Upper and lower quintiles defined HPR and LPR......, respectively, whereas quintiles 2-4 defined normal responders. All patients were assigned PREDICT score points in clinical categories (age > 65, reduced left ventricular function, reduced kidney function, acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and diabetes). We found an association between the cumulative number...... of PREDICT score variables and the incidence of HPR for clopidogrel (HPR (ADP)) (p 

  11. Prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease mortality in a nationally representative cohort using a set of risk factors from pooled cohort risk equations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zefeng Zhang

    Full Text Available The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association developed Pooled Cohort equations to estimate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD risk. It is unclear how well the equations predict ASCVD mortality in a nationally representative cohort. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1988-1994 and Linked Mortality through 2006 (n = 6,644. Among participants aged 40-79 years without ASCVD at baseline, we used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the 10-year probability of ASCVD death by sex and race-ethnicity (non-Hispanic white (NHW, non-Hispanic black (NHB and Mexican American (MA. We estimated the discrimination and calibration for each sex-race-ethnicity model. We documented 288 ASCVD deaths during 62,335 person years. The Pooled Cohort equations demonstrated moderate to good discrimination for ASCVD mortality, with modified C-statistics of 0.716 (95% CI 0.663-0.770, 0.794 (0.734-0.854, and 0.733 (0.654-0.811 for NHW, NHB and MA men, respectively. The corresponding C-statistics for women were 0.781 (0.718-0.844, 0.702 (0.633-0.771, and 0.789 (CI 0.721-0.857. Modified Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 suggested adequate calibration for NHW, NHB and MA men, and MA women (p-values: 0.128, 0.295, 0.104 and 0.163 respectively. The calibration was inadequate for NHW and NHB women (p<0.05. In this nationally representative cohort, the Pooled Cohort equations performed adequately to predict 10-year ASCVD mortality for NHW and NHB men, and MA population, but not for NHW and NHB women.

  12. Prediction of eyespot infection risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Váòová

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to design a prediction model for eyespot (Tapesia yallundae infection based on climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, air humidity. Data from experiment years 1994-2002 were used to study correlations between the eyespot infection index and individual weather characteristics. The model of prediction was constructed using multiple regression when a separate parameter is assigned to each factor, i.e. the frequency of days with optimum temperatures, humidity, and precipitation. The correlation between relative air humidity and precipitation and the infection index is significant.

  13. Injury rates in martial art athletes: anthropometric parameters and training volume, but not foot morphology indexes, are predictive risk factors for lower limb injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitale, Jacopo A; Bassani, Tito; Galbusera, Fabio; Bianchi, Alberto; Martinelli, Nicolò

    2017-09-22

    Previous studies attempted to identify possible risk factors for acute and overuse injuries in several sports disciplines such as running, gymnastics or team sports. Given the lack of scientific works focused on risk factors for lower limb injuries in martial arts, the present study was aimed to investigate foot anatomy, anthropometric measures, and other background information as possible risk factors of injury in barefoot athletes practicing judo, karate, kung fu, thai boxe, or aikido. In addition, the injury rates were evaluated in relation with the different martial art styles. One group of 130 martial artists was retrospectively evaluated. Data of three foot morphological variables were collected: navicular height (NH), navicular drop (ND) and the rear foot (RF). In addition, each participant filled an interview questionnaire providing the following information: age, sex, body weight, height, BMI, hours of training per week, the kind of injury occurred to the lower limbs in the preceding year. Of 130 subjects, 70 (53.8%) did not sustain injuries, 35 (27.0%) suffered an acute injury and the remaining 25 (19.2%) reported an overuse injury. No significant differences were observed in the injury rates in relation to style and kind of martial art. Age, training volume and BMI were found as significant predictors of injury, while NH, ND and RF were not able to predict acute or overuse injury at lower limbs. The injury rates were similar in karate, judo, kung fu, aikido, and thai boxe. The foot morphology variables were not related with the presence or absence of acute and overuse injuries. Conversely, older and heavier martial artists, performing more hours of barefoot training, are at higher risk of acute and overuse injury. Athletic trainers should strongly take into account the present information in order to develop more accurate and specific injury prevention programs for martial artists.

  14. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. Predicting Persistent Back Symptoms by Psychosocial Risk Factors: Validity Criteria for the ÖMPSQ and the HKF-R 10 in Germany.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Riewe

    Full Text Available 10% of all individuals in Germany develop persistent symptoms due to nonspecific back pain (NSBP causing up to 90% of direct and indirect expenses for health care systems. Evidence indicates a strong relationship between chronic nonspecific back pain and psychosocial risk factors. The Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (ÖMPSQ and the German Heidelberger Kurzfragebogen Rückenschmerz (HKF-R 10 are deemed valid in prediction of persistent pain, functional loss or amount of sick leave. This study provides and discusses validity criteria for these questionnaires using ROC-curve analyses. Quality measurements included sensitivity and specificity, likelihood-ratio related test-efficiencies and clinical utility in regard to predictive values.265 patients recruited from primary and secondary care units completed both questionnaires during the same timeframe. From the total, 133 patients returned a 6-month follow-up questionnaire to assess the validity criteria for outcomes of pain, function and sick leave.Based on heterogeneous cut-offs for the ÖMPSQ, sensitivity and specificity were moderate for outcome of pain (72%/75%. Very high sensitivity was observed for function (97%/57% and high specificity for sick leave (63%/85%. The latter also applied to the HKF-R 10 (pain 50%/84%. Proportions between sensitivity and specificity were unbalanced except for the ÖMPSQ outcome of pain. Likelihood-ratios and positive predictive values ranged from low to moderate.Although the ÖMPSQ may be considered useful in identification of long-term functional loss or pain, over- and underestimation of patients at risk of chronic noncspecific back pain led to limited test-efficiencies and clinical utility for both questionnaires. Further studies are required to quantify the predictive validity of both questionnaires in Germany.

  16. Longitudinal Risk and Resilience Factors Predicting Psychiatric Disruption, Mental Health Service Utilization & Military Retention in OIF National Guard Troops

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    attrition over time. By learning about what predicts psychiatric problems and what hampers the use of psychiatric services, we can develop new ways to...prior to deployment. Pre-deployment alcohol use was associated with younger age, fewer years of education , being unmarried, personality, and PTSD...Research Forum . Page 16 Polusny, M. A., Erbes, C. R., Arbisi, P. A., Thuras, P., Reddy, M. K., Erickson, D., Murdoch, M., Rath, M., & Courage, C. (2008

  17. Subclinical organ damage and cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Olsen, Michael H

    2010-01-01

    Traditional cardiovascular risk factors have poor prognostic value for individuals and screening for subclinical organ damage has been recommended in hypertension in recent guidelines. The aim of this review was to investigate the clinical impact of the additive prognostic information provided...... by measuring subclinical organ damage. We have (i) reviewed recent studies linking markers of subclinical organ damage in the heart, blood vessels and kidney to cardiovascular risk; (ii) discussed the evidence for improvement in cardiovascular risk prediction using markers of subclinical organ damage; (iii...

  18. Risk factors for cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyman, G.H.

    1992-01-01

    It is no longer reasonable to divide cancers into those that are genetic in origin and those that are environmental in origin. With rare exception, carcinogenesis involves environmental factors that directly or indirectly exert a change in the cell's genome. Virtually all causes of cancer are multifactorial, sometimes involving an inherited predisposition to the carcinogenic effects of environmental factors, which include chemicals, ionizing radiation, and oncogenic virus. Carcinogenesis is a multistep process including induction, promotion, and progression. Initiation requires an irreversible change in the cellular genome, whereas promotion is commonly associated with prolonged and reversible exposure. Tumor progression results in genotypic and phenotypic changes associated with tumor growth, invasion, and metastasis. Most information on human cancer risk is based on epidemiologic studies involving both exposed and unexposed individuals. The quality of such studies depends on their ability to assess the strength of any association of exposure and disease and careful attention to any potential bias. Few cancers are inherited in a Mendelian fashion. Several preneoplastic conditions, however, are clearly inherited and several malignancies demonstrate weak familial patterns. Environmental factors may exert their effect on DNA in a random fashion, but certain consistent changes, including specific translocations of genetic information, are often found. Currently, there is great interest in the close proximity of certain oncogenes governing growth control to the consistent chromosomal changes observed. Such changes may represent a final common pathway of action for environmental carcinogens. Sufficient laboratory and epidemiologic evidence exists to establish a causal association of several chemical agents with cancer

  19. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults

    OpenAIRE

    Knowles, K. M.; Paiva, L. L.; Sanchez, S. E.; Revilla, L.; Lopez, T.; Yasuda, M. B.; Yanez, N. D.; Gelaye, B.; Williams, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and visceral adiposity index (VAI) were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric mea...

  20. Brief report: Bifactor modeling of general vs. specific factors of religiousness differentially predicting substance use risk in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen; Longo, Gregory S; Holmes, Christopher J

    2015-08-01

    Religiousness is important to adolescents in the U.S., and the significant link between high religiousness and low substance use is well known. There is a debate between multidimensional and unidimensional perspectives of religiousness (Gorsuch, 1984); yet, no empirical study has tested this hierarchical model of religiousness related to adolescent health outcomes. The current study presents the first attempt to test a bifactor model of religiousness related to substance use among adolescents (N = 220, 45% female). Our bifactor model using structural equation modeling suggested the multidimensional nature of religiousness as well as the presence of a superordinate general religiousness factor directly explaining the covariation among the specific factors including organizational and personal religiousness and religious social support. The general religiousness factor was inversely related to substance use. After accounting for the contribution of the general religiousness factor, high organizational religiousness related to low substance use, whereas personal religiousness and religious support were positively related to substance use. The findings present the first evidence that supports hierarchical structures of adolescent religiousness that contribute differentially to adolescent substance use. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. [The monophasic pattern in oral glucose tolerance test as a predictive risk factor of type 2 diabetes in obese paediatric patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera-Martínez, Aura D; Enes, Patricia; Martín-Frías, María; Roldán, Belén; Yelmo, Rosa; Barrio, Raquel

    2017-10-01

    The onset of obesity at young ages is strongly associated with the early development of type 2diabetes (T2D). The shape of the curves of glucose and insulin curves during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) could predict the risk of developing T2D. To analyse the morphology of the OGTT and determine T2D risk factors in a mainly Caucasian population of children and adolescents. Observational retrospective study including 588 patients (309 males, 279 females) with a mean age of 11.1±2years, and of whom 90.3% were Caucasian. Risk factors for T2D were compared in patients with a monophasic or biphasic pattern during the performance of an OGTT, as well as anthropometric and biochemical variables, insulin resistance, and beta-cell function. The shape of the glucose curve was monophasic in 50.2% of patients (50.8% male), biphasic in 48.5% (47.6% males), and indeterminate in 1.3%. The monophasic pattern showed lower insulin-sensitivity and worse beta-cell function. Patients with a biphasic pattern had a higher BMI, waist circumference, and blood pressure, although the results were not significant. Latin-American patients had significantly lower serum glucose levels with higher insulin levels during the OGTT. The pattern of response to an OGTT reflects different metabolic phenotypes. Paediatric patients with a biphasic pattern have lower risk-profiling for T2D. The performing of an OGTT could be useful to implement early intervention strategies in children and adolescents with obesity, in order to prevent the development of pre-diabetes or T2D. Copyright © 2016 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  2. Adolescent oligomenorrhea (age 14-19) tracks into the third decade of life (age 20-28) and predicts increased cardiovascular risk factors and metabolic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glueck, Charles J; Woo, Jessica G; Khoury, Philip R; Morrison, John A; Daniels, Stephen R; Wang, Ping

    2015-04-01

    Assess whether adolescent oligomenorrhea (age 14-19) tracks into young adulthood (age 20-28) and predicts increased cardiometabolic risk factors, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and impaired fasting glucose-type II diabetes mellitus (IFG+T2DM). Prospective study of menstrual cyclicity and its metabolic effects in 865 black and white schoolgirls from age 9 to 19, and 605 of these 865 girls from age 20 to 28. Patterns of menstrual delays (oligomenorrhea) during ages 14-19 and ages 20-28 were closely related (ppolycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS, p=.049) predicted ages 20-28 menses delay. Menses delays during ages 14-19 and 20-28, and, their interaction product were correlated with IFG+T2DM and MetS at ages 20-28. Waist circumference (ages 20-28, prisk factor for future development of young adult IFG+T2DM, MetS, oligomenorrhea, and polycystic ovary syndrome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  4. Risk Factors Predicting Mortality in Patients with Lung Abscess in a Public Tertiary Care Center in Karachi, Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Shaista Ghazal; Ashok Kumar; Binav Shrestha; Sana Sajid; Maria Malik; Nadeen Rizvi

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Lung abscess is a commonly encountered entity in South-East Asia but not much data regarding its outcome is available. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with increased mortality in patients diagnosed with lung abscess in a tertiary care center of Karachi, Pakistan. Methods: A retrospective case analysis was performed via hospital records, on patients admitted with lung abscess between January 2009 and January 2011 at the largest state...

  5. Risk Factors in Pemphigus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gülşen Tükenmez Demirc

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and Design: There have been reports suggesting the involvement of environmental factors in the disease process of pemphigus. In this study, we aimed to find out the risk factors which could play role in the etiopathogenesis in our pemphigus patients.Material and method: A total of 42 patients (15 male and 27 female who were diagnosed as pemphigus with histopathological and direct immunoflurosence examinations in our clinic between the years 1998-2004, were interviewed for assessment of regarding with the subjects of the demographic properties, occupational groups, educational level, the number of pregnancies, stressfull life events, diet habits, smoking and alcohol consumption before the onset of the disease and the results were compared to 42 age and gender-matched controls with similar socioeconomic circumstances. Results: Working in agriculture and livestock, multi-parity, absence of smoking and stressfull life events were found to be statistically significant in pemphigus patients than in controls. Conclusion: Working in agriculture and livestock, multi-parity, absence of smoking and stressfull life events were assumed to play role in the etiopathogenesis and course of pemphigus.

  6. Perinatal risk factors for strabismus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torp-Pedersen, Tobias; Boyd, Heather A; Poulsen, Gry

    2010-01-01

    Little is known about the aetiological factors underlying strabismus. We undertook a large cohort study to investigate perinatal risk factors for strabismus, overall and by subtype.......Little is known about the aetiological factors underlying strabismus. We undertook a large cohort study to investigate perinatal risk factors for strabismus, overall and by subtype....

  7. Risk factors in school shootings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlinden, S; Hersen, M; Thomas, J

    2000-01-01

    Nine incidents of multiple-victim homicide in American secondary schools are examined and common risk factors are identified. The literature dealing with individual, family, social, societal, and situational risk factors for youth violence and aggression is reviewed along with existing risk assessment methods. Checklists of risk factors for serious youth violence and school violence are used in reviewing each school shooting case. Commonalties among the cases and implications for psychologists practicing in clinical and school settings are discussed.

  8. A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Ueda, Peter; Lu, Yuan

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Treatment of cardiovascular risk factors based on disease risk depends on valid risk prediction equations. We aimed to develop, and apply in example countries, a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease (consisting here of coronary heart disease and stroke) that can be reca...

  9. Does IQ predict total and cardiovascular disease mortality as strongly as other risk factors? Comparison of effect estimates using the Vietnam Experience Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batty, G D; Shipley, M J; Gale, C R

    2008-01-01

    To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality.......To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality....

  10. Psychological factors, including alexithymia, in the prediction of cardiovascular risk in HIV infected patients: results of a cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giustino Parruti

    Full Text Available Psychological factors are known predictors of cardiovascular disease in many clinical settings, but data are lacking for HIV infection. We carried out a prospective cohort study to evaluate potential psychological predictors of preclinical and clinical vascular disease in HIV patients.HIV patients were consecutively enrolled. Demographics, viral and immune parameters and traditional cardiovascular predictors were considered; Intima-Media Thickness (c-IMT, continuous measure and Carotid Plaques (CPs, focal thickening ≥1.5 mm were investigated by B-mode ultrasonography; depressive symptoms by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II, Type D personality (Distressed Personality or Type D by the DS14, alexithymia by the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20. Vascular outcomes included transient ischemic attacks or stroke, acute coronary syndrome, myocardial or other organ infarction. We enrolled 232 HIV subjects, 73.9% males, aged 44.5±9.9 y, 38.2% with AIDS diagnosis, 18.3% untreated. Mean Nadir CD4 T-cell counts were 237.5±186.2/mmc. Of them, 224 (96.5% attended IMT measurements; 201 (86.6% attended both IMT assessment and psychological profiling. Mean follow-up was 782±308 days. Fifty-nine patients (29.4% had CPs at baseline. Nineteen patients (9.5% had ≥1 vascular event; 12 (6.0% died due to such events (n = 4 or any cause. At baseline cross-sectional multivariate analysis, increasing age, total cholesterol, current smoking and Alexithymia score≥50 were significantly associated with both increased cIMT (linear regression and CPs (logistic regression. At follow-up analysis, log-rank tests and Cox's regression revealed that only older age (p = 0.001, current smoking (p = 0.019 and alexithymia score≥50 (p = 0.013 were independently associated with vascular events.In HIV-infected subjects, the Alexithymic trait emerges as a strong predictor of increased IMT, presence of CPs and vascular events. Such results are preliminary and require

  11. Pitfalls in Prediction Modeling for Normal Tissue Toxicity in Radiation Therapy: An Illustration With the Individual Radiation Sensitivity and Mammary Carcinoma Risk Factor Investigation Cohorts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mbah, Chamberlain, E-mail: chamberlain.mbah@ugent.be [Department of Basic Medical Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent (Belgium); Department of Mathematical Modeling, Statistics, and Bioinformatics, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent (Belgium); Thierens, Hubert [Department of Basic Medical Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent (Belgium); Thas, Olivier [Department of Mathematical Modeling, Statistics, and Bioinformatics, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent (Belgium); National Institute for Applied Statistics Research Australia, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales (Australia); De Neve, Jan [Department of Data Analysis, Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent (Belgium); Chang-Claude, Jenny; Seibold, Petra; Botma, Akke [Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg (Germany); West, Catharine [Translational Radiobiology Group, Institute of Cancer Sciences, Radiotherapy Related Research, Christie Hospital NHS Trust, University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom); De Ruyck, Kim [Department of Basic Medical Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent (Belgium)

    2016-08-01

    Purpose: To identify the main causes underlying the failure of prediction models for radiation therapy toxicity to replicate. Methods and Materials: Data were used from two German cohorts, Individual Radiation Sensitivity (ISE) (n=418) and Mammary Carcinoma Risk Factor Investigation (MARIE) (n=409), of breast cancer patients with similar characteristics and radiation therapy treatments. The toxicity endpoint chosen was telangiectasia. The LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) logistic regression method was used to build a predictive model for a dichotomized endpoint (Radiation Therapy Oncology Group/European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer score 0, 1, or ≥2). Internal areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (inAUCs) were calculated by a naïve approach whereby the training data (ISE) were also used for calculating the AUC. Cross-validation was also applied to calculate the AUC within the same cohort, a second type of inAUC. Internal AUCs from cross-validation were calculated within ISE and MARIE separately. Models trained on one dataset (ISE) were applied to a test dataset (MARIE) and AUCs calculated (exAUCs). Results: Internal AUCs from the naïve approach were generally larger than inAUCs from cross-validation owing to overfitting the training data. Internal AUCs from cross-validation were also generally larger than the exAUCs, reflecting heterogeneity in the predictors between cohorts. The best models with largest inAUCs from cross-validation within both cohorts had a number of common predictors: hypertension, normalized total boost, and presence of estrogen receptors. Surprisingly, the effect (coefficient in the prediction model) of hypertension on telangiectasia incidence was positive in ISE and negative in MARIE. Other predictors were also not common between the 2 cohorts, illustrating that overcoming overfitting does not solve the problem of replication failure of prediction models completely

  12. Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

  13. Stroke Risk Factors and Symptoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... » [ pdf, 433 kb ] Order Materials » Stroke Risk Factors and Symptoms Risk Factors for a Stroke Stroke prevention is still ... it. Treatment can delay complications that increase the risk of stroke. Transient ischemic attacks (TIAs). Seek help. ...

  14. Prediction of Small for Gestational Age Infants in Healthy Nulliparous Women Using Clinical and Ultrasound Risk Factors Combined with Early Pregnancy Biomarkers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lesley M E McCowan

    Full Text Available Most small for gestational age pregnancies are unrecognised before birth, resulting in substantial avoidable perinatal mortality and morbidity. Our objective was to develop multivariable prediction models for small for gestational age combining clinical risk factors and biomarkers at 15±1 weeks' with ultrasound parameters at 20±1 weeks' gestation.Data from 5606 participants in the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE cohort study were divided into Training (n = 3735 and Validation datasets (n = 1871. The primary outcomes were All-SGA (small for gestational age with birthweight <10th customised centile, Normotensive-SGA (small for gestational age with a normotensive mother and Hypertensive-SGA (small for gestational age with an hypertensive mother. The comparison group comprised women without the respective small for gestational age phenotype. Multivariable analysis was performed using stepwise logistic regression beginning with clinical variables, and subsequent additions of biomarker and then ultrasound (biometry and Doppler variables. Model performance was assessed in Training and Validation datasets by calculating area under the curve.633 (11.2% infants were All-SGA, 465(8.2% Normotensive-SGA and 168 (3% Hypertensive-SGA. Area under the curve (95% Confidence Intervals for All-SGA using 15±1 weeks' clinical variables, 15±1 weeks' clinical+ biomarker variables and clinical + biomarkers + biometry /Doppler at 20±1 weeks' were: 0.63 (0.59-0.67, 0.64 (0.60-0.68 and 0.69 (0.66-0.73 respectively in the Validation dataset; Normotensive-SGA results were similar: 0.61 (0.57-0.66, 0.61 (0.56-0.66 and 0.68 (0.64-0.73 with small increases in performance in the Training datasets. Area under the curve (95% Confidence Intervals for Hypertensive-SGA were: 0.76 (0.70-0.82, 0.80 (0.75-0.86 and 0.84 (0.78-0.89 with minimal change in the Training datasets.Models for prediction of small for gestational age, which combine biomarkers, clinical and

  15. Fracture Risk and Risk Factors for Osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schürer, Christian; Wallaschofski, Henri; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Schober, Hans-Christof; Hannemann, Anke

    2015-05-25

    As the population ages, diseases of the elderly are becoming more common, including osteoporosis. Ways to assess the risk of fracture and the distribution and effects of known risk factors for osteoporosis will be important in planning for future healthcare needs, as well as in the development of preventive strategies. The study population included 6029 men and women aged 20-90 who underwent examination in the second follow-up wave of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2) or in the basal SHIP-Trend Study. The risk of fracture was estimated on the basis of quantitative ultrasonography of the calcaneus. Prior fractures and risk factors for osteoporosis were ascertained in standardized interviews. 4.6% of the male subjects and 10.6% of the female subjects were judged to have an elevated risk of fracture. The corresponding percentages among subjects over age 65 were 8.8% for men and 28.2% for women. Even among subjects under age 55, risk factors for osteoporosis were associated with lower bone stiffness: the mean stiffness index was 103/98 (men/women) without risk factors, 99/96 with one risk factor, and 93/95 with more than one risk factor. Logistic regression analysis yielded an odds ratio of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.44-2.50; p<0.01) for prevalent fractures among subjects aged 75 and older compared to subjects under age 55. The data indicate a high prevalence of osteoporosis from age 65 onward. These findings are consistent with those of other studies from Germany and across Europe. Younger men and women should already begin taking steps to counteract modifiable risk factors.

  16. Prediction of Drug Attitude in Adolescents Based on Family Training Risk Factors for Mental Health in Society: Designing a Model for Prevention of Addiction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Parsian

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Substance abuse is one of the worst humanitarian issues in recent years which undermines the base and foundations of human society. Its prevention requires the application of multiple theories in various disciplines together with diverse methods and techniques. Several studies have been emphasized on the role of personal and familial variables as risk factors for substance use . However, this study was done in order to predict drug addiction attitude in adolescents according to the family training risk factors to prevent substance abuse and to design a model for the prevention of addiction .   Methods: This study is a descriptive and survey research performed on a sample of 373 male and female students selected randomly among the five high school students in Ghaemshahr city. Then a questionnaire including parenting styles, attitude to addiction and social problem solving skill as well as a socioeconomic questionnaire distributed among the students. For data analysis, the statistical method of descriptive statistics and path analysis has been used.   Results: Results of this study have shown that the component of parenting styles has a direct and positive impact on attitudes to drug addiction. In addition, there was a direct and positive non-significant relationship between the adaptive social problem solving skills and attitude to drug addiction and also direct and negative significant relationship between the non-adaptive social problem solving skills on this attitudes. A direct and negative significant relationship was also seen between parenting styles and attitude to drug addiction.   Conclusions: Based on the results of present study, the components of parenting styles have a direct and negative impact on attitudes to drug addiction. Also there is a direct and significant relationship between the components of non-adaptive social problem solving skills and the variable of social attitude in adolescents . But the

  17. The Multi-factor Predictive Seis &Gis Model of Ecological, Genetical, Population Health Risk and Bio-geodynamic Processes In Geopathogenic Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondarenko, Y.

    I. Goal and Scope. Human birth rate decrease, death-rate growth and increase of mu- tagenic deviations risk take place in geopathogenic and anthropogenic hazard zones. Such zones create unfavourable conditions for reproductive process of future genera- tions. These negative trends should be considered as a protective answer of the com- plex biosocial system to the appearance of natural and anthropogenic risk factors that are unfavourable for human health. The major goals of scientific evaluation and de- crease of risk of appearance of hazardous processes on the territory of Dnipropetrovsk, along with creation of the multi-factor predictive Spirit-Energy-Information Space "SEIS" & GIS Model of ecological, genetical and population health risk in connection with dangerous bio-geodynamic processes, were: multi-factor modeling and correla- tion of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes and those of human health; determination of indicators that show the risk of destruction structures appearance on different levels of organization and functioning of the city ecosystem (geophys- ical and geochemical fields, soil, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere); analysis of regularities of natural, anthropogenic, and biological rhythms' interactions. II. Meth- ods. The long spatio-temporal researches (Y. Bondarenko, 1996, 2000) have proved that the ecological, genetic and epidemiological processes are in connection with de- velopment of dangerous bio-geophysical and bio-geodynamic processes. Mathemat- ical processing of space photos, lithogeochemical and geophysical maps with use of JEIS o and ERDAS o computer systems was executed at the first stage of forma- tion of multi-layer geoinformation model "Dnipropetrovsk ARC View GIS o. The multi-factor nonlinear correlation between solar activity and cosmic ray variations, geophysical, geodynamic, geochemical, atmospheric, technological, biological, socio- economical processes and oncologic case rate frequency, general and primary

  18. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  19. Noncoronary Measures Enhance the Predictive Value of Cardiac CT Above Traditional Risk Factors and CAC Score in the General Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahabadi, Amir A; Lehmann, Nils; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Pundt, Noreen; Dykun, Iryna; Roggenbuck, Ulla; Moebus, Susanne; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund; Kälsch, Hagen

    2016-10-01

    volume, and TAC from non-contrast-enhanced cardiac CT improves the prediction of incident hard cardiovascular events above CAC and established risk factors, indicating that quantification of these noncoronary measures may improve the prognostic value of this imaging technology. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Risk factors for stress fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennell, K; Matheson, G; Meeuwisse, W; Brukner, P

    1999-08-01

    Preventing stress fractures requires knowledge of the risk factors that predispose to this injury. The aetiology of stress fractures is multifactorial, but methodological limitations and expediency often lead to research study designs that evaluate individual risk factors. Intrinsic risk factors include mechanical factors such as bone density, skeletal alignment and body size and composition, physiological factors such as bone turnover rate, flexibility, and muscular strength and endurance, as well as hormonal and nutritional factors. Extrinsic risk factors include mechanical factors such as surface, footwear and external loading as well as physical training parameters. Psychological traits may also play a role in increasing stress fracture risk. Equally important to these types of analyses of individual risk factors is the integration of information to produce a composite picture of risk. The purpose of this paper is to critically appraise the existing literature by evaluating study design and quality, in order to provide a current synopsis of the known scientific information related to stress fracture risk factors. The literature is not fully complete with well conducted studies on this topic, but a great deal of information has accumulated over the past 20 years. Although stress fractures result from repeated loading, the exact contribution of training factors (volume, intensity, surface) has not been clearly established. From what we do know, menstrual disturbances, caloric restriction, lower bone density, muscle weakness and leg length differences are risk factors for stress fracture. Other time-honoured risk factors such as lower extremity alignment have not been shown to be causative even though anecdotal evidence indicates they are likely to play an important role in stress fracture pathogenesis.

  1. Managing Multiple Risk Factors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lollis, Charlie

    1998-01-01

    ...) contribute to the racial differences in cardiovascular risk and events among women. High levels of socioeconomic stress, higher dietary fat intake and sedentary lifestyle are more prevalent among black than white women...

  2. Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenberg, Erik; Cao, Yang; Szabo, Eva; Näslund, Erik; Näslund, Ingmar; Ottosson, Johan

    2018-01-12

    Factors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently. This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these. Patients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015. Revision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-0.24, p prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low. Revision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.

  3. The prediction of the bankruptcy risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe DUMITRESCU

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The study research results of the bankruptcy risk in the actual economic crisis are very weak. This issue is very important for the economy of every country, no matter what their actual development level.The necessity of bankruptcy risk prediction appears in every company,but also in the related institutions like financial companies, investors, suppliers, customers.The bankruptcy risk made and makes the object of many studies of research that want to identify: the moment of the appearance of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete at the reach of this state, the indicators that express the best this orientation (to the bankruptcy.The threats to the firms impose the knowledge by the managers,permanently of the economic-financial situations, of the vulnerable areas and of those with potential of development. Thus, these must identify and gesture the threats that would stop the fulfillment of the established purposes.

  4. Hidden Risk Factors for Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... A.S.T. Quiz Hidden Stroke Risk Factors for Women Updated:Nov 22,2016 Excerpted from "What Women Need To Know About The Hidden Risk Factors ... 2012) This year, more than 100,000 U.S. women under 65 will have a stroke. Stroke is ...

  5. Risk Factors Analysis and Death Prediction in Some Life-Threatening Ailments Using Chi-Square Case-Based Reasoning (χ2 CBR) Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeniyi, D A; Wei, Z; Yang, Y

    2018-01-30

    A wealth of data are available within the health care system, however, effective analysis tools for exploring the hidden patterns in these datasets are lacking. To alleviate this limitation, this paper proposes a simple but promising hybrid predictive model by suitably combining the Chi-square distance measurement with case-based reasoning technique. The study presents the realization of an automated risk calculator and death prediction in some life-threatening ailments using Chi-square case-based reasoning (χ 2 CBR) model. The proposed predictive engine is capable of reducing runtime and speeds up execution process through the use of critical χ 2 distribution value. This work also showcases the development of a novel feature selection method referred to as frequent item based rule (FIBR) method. This FIBR method is used for selecting the best feature for the proposed χ 2 CBR model at the preprocessing stage of the predictive procedures. The implementation of the proposed risk calculator is achieved through the use of an in-house developed PHP program experimented with XAMP/Apache HTTP server as hosting server. The process of data acquisition and case-based development is implemented using the MySQL application. Performance comparison between our system, the NBY, the ED-KNN, the ANN, the SVM, the Random Forest and the traditional CBR techniques shows that the quality of predictions produced by our system outperformed the baseline methods studied. The result of our experiment shows that the precision rate and predictive quality of our system in most cases are equal to or greater than 70%. Our result also shows that the proposed system executes faster than the baseline methods studied. Therefore, the proposed risk calculator is capable of providing useful, consistent, faster, accurate and efficient risk level prediction to both the patients and the physicians at any time, online and on a real-time basis.

  6. Environmental risk factors and pressures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinda, J.; Lieskovska, Z.

    1998-01-01

    In this chapter the physical risk factors (as radiation [air contamination, contamination of the environment components and food contamination], radon and its radioactive decay products, radioactive wastes, noise), chemical risk factors [chemical substances, xenobiotics in the food chain the ozone depletion], wastes (waste generation, waste management, municipal waste management, import, export and transit of waste) and natural an technological hazards (water quality deterioration as a result of various accidents and fire risk) in the Slovak Republic in 1997 are reviewed

  7. Tail Risk Premia and Return Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Viktor; Xu, Lai

    The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may be attribu......The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may......-varying economic uncertainty and changes in risk aversion, or market fears, respectively....

  8. Cardiovascular risk factors and dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fillit, Howard; Nash, David T; Rundek, Tatjana; Zuckerman, Andrea

    2008-06-01

    Dementias, such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia, are disorders of aging populations and represent a significant economic burden. Evidence is accumulating to suggest that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be instrumental in the development of dementia. The goal of this review was to discuss the relationship between specific CVD risk factors and dementia and how current treatment strategies for dementia should focus on reducing CVD risks. We conducted a review of the literature for the simultaneous presence of 2 major topics, cardiovascular risk factors and dementia (eg, AD). Special emphasis was placed on clinical outcome studies examining the effects of treatments of pharmacologically modifiable CVD risk factors on dementia and cognitive impairment. Lifestyle risk factors for CVD, such as obesity, lack of exercise, smoking, and certain psychosocial factors, have been associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline and dementia. Some evidence suggests that effectively managing these factors may prevent cognitive decline/dementia. Randomized, placebo-controlled trials of antihypertensive medications have found that such therapy may reduce the risk of cognitive decline, and limited data suggest a benefit for patients with AD. Some small open-label and randomized clinical trials of statins have observed positive effects on cognitive function; larger studies of statins in patients with AD are ongoing. Although more research is needed, current evidence indicates an association between CVD risk factors--such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus--and cognitive decline/dementia. From a clinical perspective, these data further support the rationale for physicians to provide effective management of CVD risk factors and for patients to be compliant with such recommendations to possibly prevent cognitive decline/dementia.

  9. How well can post-traumatic stress disorder be predicted from pre-trauma risk factors? An exploratory study in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Ronald C; Rose, Sherri; Koenen, Karestan C; Karam, Elie G; Stang, Paul E; Stein, Dan J; Heeringa, Steven G; Hill, Eric D; Liberzon, Israel; McLaughlin, Katie A; McLean, Samuel A; Pennell, Beth E; Petukhova, Maria; Rosellini, Anthony J; Ruscio, Ayelet M; Shahly, Victoria; Shalev, Arieh Y; Silove, Derrick; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Angermeyer, Matthias C; Bromet, Evelyn J; de Almeida, José Miguel Caldas; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Jonge, Peter; Demyttenaere, Koen; Florescu, Silvia E; Gureje, Oye; Haro, Josep Maria; Hinkov, Hristo; Kawakami, Norito; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Lee, Sing; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Murphy, Samuel D; Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Piazza, Marina; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate; Torres, Yolanda; Carmen Viana, Maria

    2014-10-01

    Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) should be one of the most preventable mental disorders, since many people exposed to traumatic experiences (TEs) could be targeted in first response settings in the immediate aftermath of exposure for preventive intervention. However, these interventions are costly and the proportion of TE-exposed people who develop PTSD is small. To be cost-effective, risk prediction rules are needed to target high-risk people in the immediate aftermath of a TE. Although a number of studies have been carried out to examine prospective predictors of PTSD among people recently exposed to TEs, most were either small or focused on a narrow sample, making it unclear how well PTSD can be predicted in the total population of people exposed to TEs. The current report investigates this issue in a large sample based on the World Health Organization (WHO)'s World Mental Health Surveys. Retrospective reports were obtained on the predictors of PTSD associated with 47,466 TE exposures in representative community surveys carried out in 24 countries. Machine learning methods (random forests, penalized regression, super learner) were used to develop a model predicting PTSD from information about TE type, socio-demographics, and prior histories of cumulative TE exposure and DSM-IV disorders. DSM-IV PTSD prevalence was 4.0% across the 47,466 TE exposures. 95.6% of these PTSD cases were associated with the 10.0% of exposures (i.e., 4,747) classified by machine learning algorithm as having highest predicted PTSD risk. The 47,466 exposures were divided into 20 ventiles (20 groups of equal size) ranked by predicted PTSD risk. PTSD occurred after 56.3% of the TEs in the highest-risk ventile, 20.0% of the TEs in the second highest ventile, and 0.0-1.3% of the TEs in the 18 remaining ventiles. These patterns of differential risk were quite stable across demographic-geographic sub-samples. These results demonstrate that a sensitive risk algorithm can be created using

  10. Cardiovascular risk factors in men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gyllenborg, J; Rasmussen, S L; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

    2001-01-01

    Males have higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) than premenopausal females. Gonadal steroids are probably involved in the gender difference in CVD, but previous results have been conflicting. We investigated the associations between CVD risk factors and sex hormones in a cross-sectional de......Males have higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) than premenopausal females. Gonadal steroids are probably involved in the gender difference in CVD, but previous results have been conflicting. We investigated the associations between CVD risk factors and sex hormones in a cross...

  11. The strength of the multivariable associations of major risk factors predicting coronary heart disease mortality is homogeneous across different areas of the Seven Countries Study during 50-year follow-up

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menotti, Alessandro; Puddu, Paolo Emilio; Adachi, Hisashi; Kafatos, Anthony; Tolonen, Hanna; Kromhout, Daan

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: To compare the magnitude of multivariable coefficients and hazard ratios of four cardiovascular risk factors across five worldwide regions of the Seven Countries Study in predicting 50-year coronary deaths. Material and methods: A total of 13 cohorts of middle-aged men at entry (40–59

  12. Predicting Risk of Cognitive Decline in Very Old Adults Using Three Models: The Framingham Stroke Risk Profile; the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia Model; and Oxi-Inflammatory Biomarkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Stephanie L; de Craen, Anton J M; Kerse, Ngaire; Teh, Ruth; Granic, Antoneta; Davies, Karen; Wesnes, Keith A; den Elzen, Wendy P J; Gussekloo, Jacobijn; Kirkwood, Thomas B L; Robinson, Louise; Jagger, Carol; Siervo, Mario; Stephan, Blossom C M

    2017-02-01

    To examine the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP); the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia (CAIDE) risk score, and oxi-inflammatory load (cumulative risk score of three blood biomarkers-homocysteine, interleukin-6, C-reactive protein) for associations with cognitive decline using three cohort studies of very old adults and to examine whether incorporating these biomarkers with the risk scores can affect the association with cognitive decline. Three longitudinal, population-based cohort studies. Newcastle-upon-Tyne, United Kingdom; Leiden, the Netherlands; and Lakes and Bay of Plenty District Health Board areas, New Zealand. Newcastle 85+ Study participants (n = 616), Leiden 85-plus Study participants (n = 444), and Life and Living in Advanced Age, a Cohort Study in New Zealand (LiLACS NZ Study) participants (n = 396). FSRP, CAIDE risk score, oxi-inflammatory load, FSRP incorporating oxi-inflammatory load, and CAIDE risk score incorporating oxi-inflammatory load. Oxi-inflammatory load could be calculated only in the Newcastle 85+ and the Leiden 85-plus studies. Measures of global cognitive function were available for all three data sets. Domain-specific measures were available for the Newcastle 85+ and the Leiden 85-plus studies. Meta-analysis of pooled results showed greater risk of incident global cognitive impairment with higher FSRP (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.98), CAIDE (HR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.09-2.14), and oxi-inflammatory load (HR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.04-2.88) scores. Adding oxi-inflammatory load to the risk scores increased the risk of cognitive impairment for the FSRP (HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.17-2.33) and the CAIDE model (HR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.39-2.67). Adding oxi-inflammatory load to cardiovascular risk scores may be useful for determining risk of cognitive impairment in very old adults. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

  13. The preterm prediction study: risk factors for indicated preterm births. Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meis, P J; Goldenberg, R L; Mercer, B M; Iams, J D; Moawad, A H; Miodovnik, M; Menard, M K; Caritis, S N; Thurnau, G R; Bottoms, S F; Das, A; Roberts, J M; McNellis, D

    1998-03-01

    Preterm births occur for many different reasons. Most efforts to identify risk factors for preterm births either ignore cause and consider preterm births as a single entity or examine risk factors for spontaneous preterm births. We performed this study to examine risk factors for indicated preterm births, which constitute more than one quarter of all preterm births. The study included 2929 women evaluated at 24 weeks' gestation at 10 centers. Information was gathered about demographic factors, socioeconomic status, home and work environments, drug and alcohol use, and medical history. In addition vaginal samples were evaluated for fetal fibronectin and bacterial vaginosis and cervical length was measured by transvaginal ultrasonography. Associations with indicated preterm birth were evaluated by univariate tests and by multivariable analysis with logistic regression. Of the women studied at 24 weeks' gestation 15.3% were delivered of their infants at births. Risk factors in the final multivariable model were, in order of decreasing odds ratios, mullerian duct abnormality (odds ratio 7.02), proteinuria at history of chronic hypertension (odds ratio 4.06), history of previous indicated preterm birth (odds ratio 2.79), history of lung disease (odds ratio 2.52), previous spontaneous preterm birth (odds ratio 2.45), age >30 years (odds ratio 2.42), black ethnicity (odds ratio 1.56), and working during pregnancy (odds ratio 1.49). Alcohol use in pregnancy was actually associated with a lower risk of indicated preterm birth (odds ratio 0.35). The risk factors found in this analysis tend to be different from those associated with spontaneous preterm birth.

  14. Predicting Outcome in Patients With Work-Related Upper Extremity Disorders: A Prospective Study of Medical, Physical, Ergonomic, and Psychosocial Risk Factors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Huang, Grant D

    1999-01-01

    .... Over the past few decades, empirical investigations have found that medical, physical, ergonomic, and psychosocial factors are correlated with and/or predictive of these disorders (e.g., Armstrong et al., 1993; Bongers et al., 1993; Hales AND Bernard, 1996).

  15. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

  16. Risk factors and effective management of preeclampsia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    English FA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fred A English,1 Louise C Kenny,1 Fergus P McCarthy1,2 1Irish Centre for Fetal and Neonatal Translational Research (INFANT, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland; 2Women’s Health Academic Centre, King's Health Partners, St Thomas' Hospital, London, UK Abstract: Preeclampsia, a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy is estimated to complicate 2%–8% of pregnancies and remains a principal cause of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Preeclampsia may present at any gestation but is more commonly encountered in the third trimester. Multiple risk factors have been documented, including: family history, nulliparity, egg donation, diabetes, and obesity. Significant progress has been made in developing tests to predict risk of preeclampsia in pregnancy, but these remain confined to clinical trial settings and center around measuring angiogenic profiles, including placental growth factor or newer tests involving metabolomics. Less progress has been made in developing new treatments and therapeutic targets, and aspirin remains one of the few agents shown to consistently reduce the risk of developing preeclampsia. This review serves to discuss recent advances in risk factor identification, prediction techniques, and management of preeclampsia in antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal patients. Keywords: pregnancy, treatment, risk reduction, prediction

  17. EAMJ Risk Factors 10.indd

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-02-02

    Feb 2, 2010 ... Several factors have been suggested as independent risk factors for their development. Identification of these ... with age, gender or haematological test. ... A meta-analysis of prospective studies on ..... The marked difference may be because monthly .... and dyslipidemia among patients taking first-line,.

  18. Incremental Value of Repeated Risk Factor Measurements for Cardiovascular Disease Prediction in Middle-Aged Korean Adults: Results From the NHIS-HEALS (National Health Insurance System-National Health Screening Cohort).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, In-Jeong; Sung, Ji Min; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chung, Namsik; Kim, Hyeon Chang

    2017-11-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that repeatedly measured cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may have an additive predictive value compared with single measured levels. Thus, we evaluated the incremental predictive value of incorporating periodic health screening data for CVD prediction in a large nationwide cohort with periodic health screening tests. A total of 467 708 persons aged 40 to 79 years and free from CVD were randomly divided into development (70%) and validation subcohorts (30%). We developed 3 different CVD prediction models: a single measure model using single time point screening data; a longitudinal average model using average risk factor values from periodic screening data; and a longitudinal summary model using average values and the variability of risk factors. The development subcohort included 327 396 persons who had 3.2 health screenings on average and 25 765 cases of CVD over 12 years. The C statistics (95% confidence interval [CI]) for the single measure, longitudinal average, and longitudinal summary models were 0.690 (95% CI, 0.682-0.698), 0.695 (95% CI, 0.687-0.703), and 0.752 (95% CI, 0.744-0.760) in men and 0.732 (95% CI, 0.722-0.742), 0.735 (95% CI, 0.725-0.745), and 0.790 (95% CI, 0.780-0.800) in women, respectively. The net reclassification index from the single measure model to the longitudinal average model was 1.78% in men and 1.33% in women, and the index from the longitudinal average model to the longitudinal summary model was 32.71% in men and 34.98% in women. Using averages of repeatedly measured risk factor values modestly improves CVD predictability compared with single measurement values. Incorporating the average and variability information of repeated measurements can lead to great improvements in disease prediction. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02931500. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  19. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  7. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  8. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  10. [Risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia-Rombo, C A; Velasco-Lavín, M R; Nieto-Caldelas, A

    1993-09-01

    The purpose of the present study is to compare risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) between two group: group A, newborns with the disease and group B, newborns with other diseases different from NEC, in order to know if these risk factors are more frequent or not in the first group. We assessed the clinical records of all the patients hospitalized in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and Neonatology Service of the La Raza General Hospital between 1987 and 1991 with the diagnosis of NEC. They were compared with 65 clinical records chosen at random of patients hospitalized in the same Unit with other diagnosis at the same time, and who were discharged by improvement or deceased. In all of them were look for known risk factors for NEC generally accepted such as: prematurity, neonatal asphyxia, poliglobulia, cyanotic congenital heart disease, patent ductus arteriosus, respiratory distress syndrome, catheterization of umbilical vessels, early feeding of elevated formula increases, exchange exchange transfusion, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, infection, etc. Just 25 records of the possible 50 with the diagnosis of NEC full filled inclusion criteria. There were no statistically significant difference in weight, sex, mortality and known risk factors of NEC between both groups. Were concluded that NEC is a disease of unknown etiology that should be studied more thoroughly. The known risk factors must be avoided because the patient susceptibility probably play an important role.

  11. Cardiovascular risk prediction in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dis, van S.J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: In clinical practice, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk prediction functions and charts are used to identify persons at high risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), who are considered eligible for drug treatment of elevated blood pressure and serum cholesterol. These

  12. Risk factor for febrile seizures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odalović Dragica

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Febrile seizures are the most frequent neurological disorder in the childhood. According to American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP, they have been defined as seizures provoked by high temperature in children aged between 6 months and 5 years, without previous history of afebrile seizures, intracranial infections and other possible causes of seizures. Seizures can be typical and atypical, according to the characteristics. Pathogenesis of this disorder has not been clarified yet, and it is believed to be a combination of genetic factors, high body temperature and brain maturation. The risk factors for recurrence of febrile seizures are: age in which seizures appeared for the first time, epilepsy in the first degree relative, febrile seizures in the first degree relative, frequent diseases with fever and low body temperature on the beginning of seizures. The frequency of recurrent seizures The risk for occurrence of epilepsy in children with simple seizures is about 1-1.5%, which is slightly higher compared to general population, while it increases to 4-15% in patients with complex seizures. However, there is no evidence that therapy prevents occurrence of epilepsy. When the prevention of recurrent seizures is considered, it is necessary to separate simple from complex seizures. The aim of this paper was to analyze the most important risk factors for febrile seizures, and to evaluate their impact on occurrence of recurrent seizures. Our study included 125 children with febrile seizures, aged from 6 months to 5 years. The presence of febrile seizures and epilepsy in the first degree relative has been noted in 22% of children. Typical febrile seizures were observed in 76% of cases, and atypical in 24%. Most patients had only one seizure (73.6%. Children, who had seizure earlier in life, had more frequent recurrences. Both risk factors were present in 25% of patients, while 68% of patients had only one risk factor. For the children with febrile disease

  13. The risk factor of thyroid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusama, Tomoko

    1979-01-01

    For the purposes of radiation protection, the noteworthy risk of thyroid is carcinogenesis. The risk factor which ICRP presented in the publication-26 is 5 x 10 - 6 rem - 1 . This numerical value is based upon the estimated likelihood of inducing fatal thyroid cancer. On the other hand, the risk factor presented by the BEIR report is 4 x 10 - 6 yr - 1 . This value was decided after consideration of the risks of both fatal and non-fatal cancer of thyroid. The following features distinguished thyroid cancer from malignancy of other tissue from medical point of view. 1) A large difference between incidence and mortality in case of thyroid cancer is recognized, because the thyroid cancer could be successfully treated by surgical or radiological treatment. 2) The high prevalence of clinically silent tumor in thyroid gland has been reported. The incidence of thyroid cancer, therefore, is very dependent on methods of medical inspection. The prevalence of radiation induced thyroid cancer is modified by various factors such as age, sex, latency, dose and dose rate. The latent period is very important factors such as ave, sex, latency, dose and dose rate. The latent period is a very important factor in the estimation of accumulated total risk of thyroid malignancy. What is included in the risk caused by thyroid irradiation must be investigated. The risk of non-fatal cancer should be considered in the same way as that of fatal cancer. The dose-equivalent limit of thyroid in non-uniform irradiation caused by radioactive iodine is decided by the limit for non-stochastic effects. Therefore the further consideration of non-stochastic effects of thyroid is necessary. (author)

  14. Human Leptospirosis and risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanelis Emilia Tabío Henry

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The human leptospirosis is a zoonosis of world distribution, were risk factors exist that have favored the wild and domestic animal propagation and so man. A descpitive investigation was made with the objective of determining the behavior of risk factors in outpatients by human leptospirosis in “Camilo Cienfuegos“ University General Hospital from Sncti Spíritus In the comprised time period betwen december 1 st and 3 st , 2008.The sample of this study was conformed by 54 risk persons that keep inclusion criteria. Some variables were used:age, sex, risk factors and number of ill persons, according to the month. Some patients of masculine sex prevailed (61,9%, group of ages between 15-29 and 45-59 years (27,7%, patients treated since october to december (53,7%, the direct and indirect contact with animals (46,2 %. The risk factors cassually associated to human leptospirosis turned to be: the masculine sex, the contac with animals, the occupational exposition and the inmersion on sources of sweet water.

  15. Development of an attrition risk prediction tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, John; Norrie, Peter

    To review lecturers' and students' perceptions of the factors that may lead to attrition from pre-registration nursing and midwifery programmes and to identify ways to reduce the impact of such factors on the student's experience. Comparable attrition rates for nursing and midwifery students across various universities are difficult to monitor accurately; however, estimates that there is approximately a 25% national attrition rate are not uncommon. The financial and human implications of this are significant and worthy of investigation. A study was carried out in one medium-sized UK school of nursing and midwifery, aimed at identifying perceived factors associated with attrition and retention. Thirty-five lecturers were interviewed individually; 605 students completed a questionnaire, and of these, 10 were individually interviewed. Attrition data kept by the student service department were reviewed. Data were collected over an 18-month period in 2007-2008. Regression analysis of the student data identified eight significant predictors. Four of these were 'positive' factors in that they aided student retention and four were 'negative' in that they were associated with students' thoughts of resigning. Student attrition and retention is multifactorial, and, as such, needs to be managed holistically. One aspect of this management could be an attrition risk prediction tool.

  16. Risk Factors for Hyperglycaemia in Pregnancy in Tamil Nadu, India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Karoline Kragelund; Damm, Peter; Kapur, Anil

    2016-01-01

    . Objective: The aims of this observational study were to examine the role of potential risk factors for HIP, and to investigate whether any single or accumulated risk factor(s) could be used to predict HIP among women attending GDM screening at three centres in urban, semi-urban and rural Tamil Nadu, India...

  17. Sexual harassment: identifying risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hare, E A; O'Donohue, W

    1998-12-01

    A new model of the etiology of sexual harassment, the four-factor model, is presented and compared with several models of sexual harassment including the biological model, the organizational model, the sociocultural model, and the sex role spillover model. A number of risk factors associated with sexually harassing behavior are examined within the framework of the four-factor model of sexual harassment. These include characteristics of the work environment (e.g., sexist attitudes among co-workers, unprofessional work environment, skewed sex ratios in the workplace, knowledge of grievance procedures for sexual harassment incidents) as well as personal characteristics of the subject (e.g., physical attractiveness, job status, sex-role). Subjects were 266 university female faculty, staff, and students who completed the Sexual Experience Questionnaire to assess the experience of sexual harassment and a questionnaire designed to assess the risk factors stated above. Results indicated that the four-factor model is a better predictor of sexual harassment than the alternative models. The risk factors most strongly associated with sexual harassment were an unprofessional environment in the workplace, sexist atmosphere, and lack of knowledge about the organization's formal grievance procedures.

  18. An artificial neural network prediction model of congenital heart disease based on risk factors: A hospital-based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huixia; Luo, Miyang; Zheng, Jianfei; Luo, Jiayou; Zeng, Rong; Feng, Na; Du, Qiyun; Fang, Junqun

    2017-02-01

    An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to predict the risks of congenital heart disease (CHD) in pregnant women.This hospital-based case-control study involved 119 CHD cases and 239 controls all recruited from birth defect surveillance hospitals in Hunan Province between July 2013 and June 2014. All subjects were interviewed face-to-face to fill in a questionnaire that covered 36 CHD-related variables. The 358 subjects were randomly divided into a training set and a testing set at the ratio of 85:15. The training set was used to identify the significant predictors of CHD by univariate logistic regression analyses and develop a standard feed-forward back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model for the prediction of CHD. The testing set was used to test and evaluate the performance of the ANN model. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed on SPSS 18.0. The ANN models were developed on Matlab 7.1.The univariate logistic regression identified 15 predictors that were significantly associated with CHD, including education level (odds ratio  = 0.55), gravidity (1.95), parity (2.01), history of abnormal reproduction (2.49), family history of CHD (5.23), maternal chronic disease (4.19), maternal upper respiratory tract infection (2.08), environmental pollution around maternal dwelling place (3.63), maternal exposure to occupational hazards (3.53), maternal mental stress (2.48), paternal chronic disease (4.87), paternal exposure to occupational hazards (2.51), intake of vegetable/fruit (0.45), intake of fish/shrimp/meat/egg (0.59), and intake of milk/soymilk (0.55). After many trials, we selected a 3-layer BPNN model with 15, 12, and 1 neuron in the input, hidden, and output layers, respectively, as the best prediction model. The prediction model has accuracies of 0.91 and 0.86 on the training and testing sets, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and Yuden Index on the testing set (training set) are 0.78 (0.83), 0.90 (0.95), and 0

  19. The Clinical Features and Predictive Risk Factors for Reoperation in Patients With Perianal Crohn Diseases; A Multi-Center Study of a Korean Inflammatory Bowel Disease Study Group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae Bum; Yoon, Seo-Gue; Park, Kyu Joo; Lee, Kang Young; Kim, Dae Dong; Yoon, Sang Nam

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Perianal lesions are common in Crohn disease, but their clinical course is unpredictable. Nevertheless, predicting the clinical course after surgery for perianal Crohn disease (PCD) is important because repeated operations may decrease patient's quality of life. The aim of this study was to predict the risk of reoperation in patients with PCD. Methods From September 1994 to February 2010, 377 patients with PCD were recruited in twelve major tertiary university-affiliated hospitals and two specialized colorectal hospitals in Korea. Data on the patient's demographics, clinical features, and surgical outcomes were analyzed. Results Among 377 patients, 227 patients were ultimately included in the study. Among the 227 patients, 64 patients underwent at least one reoperation. The median period of reoperation following the first perianal surgery was 94 months. Overall 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year cumulative rates of reoperation-free individuals were 68.8%, 61.2%, and 50.5%, respectively. In multivariate analysis (Cox-regression hazard model), reoperation was significantly correlated with an age of onset less than 20 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-3.48; P = 0.03), history of abdominal surgery (HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.08-3.64; P = 0.03), and the type of surgery. Among types of surgery, fistulotomy or fistulectomy was associated with a decreased incidence of reoperation in comparison with incision and drainage (HR, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.09-0.42; P < 0.001). Conclusion Young age of onset and a history of abdominal surgery were associated with a high risk of reoperation for PCD, and the risk of reoperation were relatively low in fistulotomy or fistulectomy procedures. PMID:26576395

  20. Risk factors for undescended testis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwers, M.M.; Bruijne, L.M. de; Gier, R.P.E. de; Zielhuis, G.A.; Feitz, W.F.J.; Roeleveld, N.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To contribute to the understanding of the etiology of undescended testis (UDT), by exploring a wide range of potential risk factors in a case-referent study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Cases and referents were recruited at five hospitals and included 200 boys with surgically corrected UDT and

  1. Seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti-Soler, Helena; Gubelmann, Cédric; Aeschbacher, Stefanie

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a large set of population-based studies. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 24 population-based studies from 15 countries, with a total sample size of 237 979 subjects. CVRFs included Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist...

  2. Risk factors for congenital hydrocephalus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munch, Tina Noergaard; Rasmussen, Marie-Louise Hee; Wohlfahrt, Jan

    2014-01-01

    . Furthermore, to identify the risk factors unique for isolated CHC as compared to syndromic CHC. METHODS: We established a cohort of all children born in Denmark between 1978 and 2008. Information on CHC and maternal medical diseases were obtained from the National Patient Discharge Register, maternal intake...... increased risk of isolated CHC compared to unexposed children (RR 2.52, 95% CI 1.47 to 4.29) (1.5/1000 born children). Risk factors also found for syndromic CHC were: Male gender, multiples and maternal diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The higher risk for isolated CHC in first-born children as well as behavioural......-born children, we observed 1193 cases of isolated CHC (0.062/1000) born children. First-borns had an increased risk of isolated CHC compared to later-borns (1.32 95% CI 1.17 to 1.49) (0.72/1000 born children). First trimester exposure to maternal use of antidepressants was associated with a significantly...

  3. [Risk factors associated to preclampsia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Carbajal, Mario Joaquín; Manríquez-Moreno, María Esther; Gálvez-Camargo, Daniela; Ramírez-Jiménez, Evelia

    2012-01-01

    preeclampsia constitutes one of the main causes of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. The aim was to identify the risk factors associated to the developmental of preeclampsia mild-moderate and severe, as well as the force of association of these factors in a hospital of second-level medical care. study of cases and controls, a relation 1:1, in women withdrawn of the Service of Gynecology and Obstetrics during 2004 to 2007. Pregnant women with more than 20 weeks gestation were included. In the cases group we included patients with diagnosis of preeclampsia mild-moderate or severe (corroborated clinical and laboratory). In the controls group that had a normal childbirth without pathology during the pregnancy. 42 cases and 42 controls. The average age was of 27 years. The associated risk factors were overweight, obesity, irregular prenatal control, short or long intergenesic period, history of caesarean or preeclampsia in previous pregnancies. the knowledge of the risk factors will allow the accomplishment of preventive measures and decrease the fetal and maternal morbidity and mortality due to preeclampsia.

  4. Psychological Factors Linked to Risk Perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armaş, I.; Creãu, R. Z.; Stǎnciugelu, I.

    2012-04-01

    Risks are mental models, which allow people to cope with dangerous phenomena (Renn, 2008; Jasanoff, 1998). The term "risk" refers to the likelihood of an adverse effect resulting from an event. The aim of the present study is to identify the psychological factors that are most predictive of risk perception in relation with age, gender, educational level and socio-economical status. Earthquake hazard was considered, because it is an emerging danger for Bucharest. 80% of the laypeople sample are waiting for this event to happen in the next three years. By integrating all the research data, it was attempted to build a risk profile of the investigated population, which could be used by institutions responsible for earthquake risk mitigation situations in Bucharest. This research appealed to the social learning Rotter (1966), auto-effectiveness Bandura (1977; 1983), and anxiety and stress theories. We used psychological variables that measured stress, personal effectiveness and the belief in personal control. The multi-modal risk perception questionnaire was structured on a 49 items sequence. The sample was composed of 1.376 participants recruited on a voluntary basis. The characteristics of risk (like probability and magnitude, time scales) are perceived differently according to psychological factors that play a role also in biases in people's ability to draw inferences from probabilistic information (like cognitive dissonance). Since the 1970's, it has been argued that those who perceive life's events as being beyond their locus of control (external locus of control) are significantly more anxious and less adapted. In this research, strongest associations and significant differences were obtained between sex, age and income categories with Stress vulnerability factor and the External Locus of Control factor. The profile of the low risk perceiver is that of a young, more educated, male individual with a higher self- efficacy level and an internal locus of control.

  5. Disability as a risk factor?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Louise; Dammeyer, Jesper

    2013-01-01

    Empirical research has established that children with disabilities are more likely to develop psychopathology than children without disabilities. But too little is known about the association between disability and psychopathology. The aim of this article is to discuss developmental...... psychopathological models that conceptualize the connection between childhood disability and psychopathology. Empirical studies of psychopathology among children with a congenital hearing impairment and children with cerebral palsy will be reviewed, representing in-depth examples of association between disability...... and psychopathology. Both a congenital hearing impairment and cerebral palsy were found to be dominating risk factors for all types of psychopathology, but no relationship was identified between degree of disability and risk of psychopathology. The higher risk cannot be explained by biological impairments alone...

  6. Neurodevelopmental risk factors in schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lobato M.I.

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors review environmental and neurodevelopmental risk factors for schizophrenic disorders, with emphasis on minor physical anomalies, particularly craniofacial anomalies and dermatoglyphic variations. The high prevalence of these anomalies among schizophrenic subjects supports the neurodevelopmental theory of the etiology of schizophrenia, since they suggest either genetically or epigenetically controlled faulty embryonic development of structures of ectodermal origin like brain and skin. This may disturb neurodevelopment that in turn may cause these subjects to be at increased risk for the development of schizophrenia and related disorders. The precise confirmation of this theory, at least in some cases, will provide further understanding of these illnesses, allowing easy and inexpensive identification of subjects at risk and providing guidelines for the development of new pharmacological interventions for early treatment and even for primary prevention of the illness.

  7. Examining predictive relationships among consumer values: factors ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Examining predictive relationships among consumer values: factors influencing behavioural intentions in retail purchase in Ghana. ... Journal of Business Research ... effects of age and gender differentials on values among retail consumers.

  8. Risk factors and prediction of inflammatory complications and local secondary osteoporosis in the bone structure of jaws in dental intraosseous implantation in healthy subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mashchenko I.S.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available As a result of complex clinical, immunologic and biochemical investigations of 48 patients peculiarities of development of inflammatory com¬plications, local osteoporosis and destruction of bone tissue after performed dental intraosseous implantantion were first revealed. It was shown that multiple surgical traumas of soft tissues of jaws and bone tissue of alveolar processes with putting 4 or more implants simultaneously may lead to reducing biocidity of mucosa of jaw tissues; this promotes lesion of oral cavity hygiene and development of inflammatory process in zone of periimplant. It is set that massive accumulation of soft coat and dental calculus in the area of implant, superconstruction and marked deficit of sIgA production of oral mucosa promote development of periimplant mucositis in remote post-operative period. A sharp production of secretory ІL -1β is a risk factor in formation of general-destructive process in a periimplant zone, development of dental periimplant.

  9. Perinatal risk factors including malformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

    1991-10-01

    The study gives a survey of the factors most frequently mentioned in the literature as factors likely to adversely affect a pregnancy. One essential aspect is the discussion of those factors that can be counted among the causes of malformations, as among others, prenatal radiation exposure. The study prepared within the framework of the research project 'Radiobiological environmental monitoring in Bavaria' is intended to serve as a basis for a retrospective and prospective evaluation of infant mortality, perinatal conditions and occurrence of malformations in Bavaria, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment - related health survey. The study therefore, in addition to ionizing radiation also takes into account other detectable risks within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or urbanity. (orig./MG) [de

  10. Predictive factors on the efficacy and risk/intensity of tooth sensitivity of dental bleaching: A multi regression and logistic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezende, Márcia; Loguercio, Alessandro D; Kossatz, Stella; Reis, Alessandra

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study was to identify predictor factors associated with the whitening outcome and risk and intensity of bleaching-induced tooth sensitivity from pooled data of 11 clinical trials of dental bleaching performed by the same research group. The individual patient data of several published and ongoing studies about dental bleaching was collected and retrospectively analyzed. At the patient-level, independent variables (bleaching techniques [at-home and in-office protocols], sex, age and baseline tooth color in shade guide unit [SGU]) as well as dependent variables (color change in shade guide units (ΔSGU), color change in the CIEL*a*b* system (ΔE), risk and intensity of TS in a visual analog scale) were collected. Multivariable linear regression and multivariable logistic regression models were carried out using backward elimination whenever the p-values were higher than 0.05. A significant relationship between baseline color and age on color change estimates was detected (pwhitening degree of 0.07 for the final ΔSGU and 0.69 for the ΔE. The bleaching technique was shown to be a significant predictor of ΔSGU (prisk of TS for at-home bleaching was 51% (95% CI 41.4-60.6) and for the in-office 62.9% (95% CI 56.9-67.3). Younger patients with darker teeth reach a higher degree of whitening. Patient with darker teeth and submitted to at-home bleaching presents lower risk and intensity of TS. The baseline color of the teeth and the patient's age is directly related to the effectiveness of dental bleaching and TS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Factors Predicting Risk for Antibody-mediated Rejection and Graft Loss in Highly Human Leukocyte Antigen Sensitized Patients Transplanted After Desensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vo, Ashley A; Sinha, Aditi; Haas, Mark; Choi, Jua; Mirocha, James; Kahwaji, Joseph; Peng, Alice; Villicana, Rafael; Jordan, Stanley C

    2015-07-01

    Desensitization with intravenous immunoglobulin and rituximab (I+R) significantly improves transplant rates in highly sensitized patients, but antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) remains a concern. Between July 2006 and December 2012, 226 highly sensitized patients received transplants after desensitization. Most received alemtuzumab induction and standard immunosuppression. Two groups were examined: ABMR (n = 181) and ABMR (n = 45, 20%). Risk factors for ABMR, pathology, and outcomes were assessed. Significant risks for ABMR included previous transplants and pregnancies as sensitizing events, donor-specific antibody (DSA) relative intensity scores greater than 17, presence of both class I and II DSAs at transplant and time on waitlist. The ABMR showed a significant benefit for graft survival and glomerular filtration rate at 5 years (P desensitized with I+R who remain ABMR have long-term graft and patient survival. The ABMR patients have significantly reduced graft survival and glomerular filtration rate at 5 years, especially TMA. Severe ABMR episodes benefit from treatment with PLEX + Eculizumab. The DSA-relative intensity scores at transplant was a strong predictor of ABMR. Donor-specific antibody avoidance and reduction strategies before transplantation are critical to avoiding ABMR and improving long-term outcomes.

  12. Risk factors for tornado injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidson, M; Lybarger, J A; Parsons, J E; MacCormack, J N; Freeman, J I

    1990-12-01

    Tornadoes in North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984 caused 252 people to be injured seriously enough to require hospitalization and 59 to be killed. To evaluate risk factors, we gathered information on 238 (94%) of those hospitalized and 46 (78%) of those killed. Those hospitalized or deceased had statistically significantly more deep cuts, concussions, unconsciousness and broken bones than those with them at the time of the tornado who were not hospitalized or killed. People living in mobile homes were more likely to be hospitalized or die than people occupying conventional houses. Other risk factors for hospitalization or death included advanced age (60+ years), no physical protection (not having been covered with a blanket or other object), having been struck by broken window glass or other falling objects, home lifted off its foundation, collapsed ceiling or floor, or walls blown away. More awareness of the tornado risk before it strikes and better adherence to tornado protection guidelines could reduce injuries and deaths in the future.

  13. Risk factor management: antiatherogenic therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gielen, Stephan; Sandri, Marcus; Schuler, Gerhard; Teupser, Daniel

    2009-08-01

    Despite the advances in interventional techniques, the management of stable atherosclerosis remains the domain of optimal guideline-oriented therapy. Recent studies on the effects of aggressive lipid lowering on atheroma volume changes using intravascular ultrasound indicate that it is possible to achieve atherosclerosis regression by reaching low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels less than 75 mg/dl. The pleiotropic anti-inflammatory effects of statins contribute to the reduction of cardiovascular (CV) event observed with aggressive lipid lowering. As a second important strategy to prevent disease progression, lifestyle changes with regular physical exercise are capable of halting the atherosclerotic process and reducing angina symptoms and CV events. Optimal medical therapy, a healthy lifestyle with regular physical exercise, and coronary interventions are not mutually exclusive treatment strategies. Over the last few decades, both have proved to be effective in significantly reducing the CV mortality in the Western world. However, risk factor modification contributed to at least half the effect in the reduction of CV mortality. This figure provides an estimate of what could be achieved if we were to take risk factor modification more seriously - especially in the acute care setting. The knowledge is there: today we have a better understanding on how to stop progression and even induce regression of atherosclerosis. Much research still needs to be done and will be done. In the meantime, however, our primary focus should lie in implementing what is already known. In addition, it is essential not just to treat CV risk factors, but also to treat them to achieve the target values as set by the guidelines of European Society of Cardiology.

  14. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Psychosocial factors predicting risky sexual behaviour among long ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Social factors that included age, number of years of education, number of wives, number of intercourses in the last three months, number of partners apart from primary partners, and number of weeks spent outside home significantly jointly predicted sexual risk behaviour (R2 = .15, F(6, 147) = 4.39; p < .05) by accounting for ...

  16. Risk factors of teenage pregnancy

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Siettou; Maria Saridi

    2011-01-01

    Teenage pregnancy is a worldwide medical and social issue, associated with many physical, psychological and social consequences and can result in birth, miscarriage or abortion. Aim: The aim of the present study is to find those risk factors that contribute to teenage pregnancy. Results: In U.S.A., according to data from Unicef, the birth rate among teenagers touches the 52.1% and it is four times higher, than the corresponding rate recorded in the countries of Western Europe. The United King...

  17. Risk factors for interpersonal conflicts at work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Raeve, Lore; Jansen, Nicole Wh; van den Brandt, Piet A; Vasse, Rineke M; Kant, Ijmert

    2008-04-01

    The main goal of this study was to identify work-related risk factors for the onset of interpersonal conflicts at work. Longitudinal data from the Maastricht Cohort Study on "fatigue at work" (N=9241) were used. After the respondents who reported an interpersonal conflict at baseline were excluded, logistic regression analyses were used to determine the role of several work-related risk factors at baseline in the onset of a conflict with coworkers or supervisors after 1 year of follow-up. Higher psychological job demands, higher levels of role ambiguity, the presence of physical demands, higher musculoskeletal demands, a poorer physical work environment, shift work, overtime, and higher levels of job insecurity significantly predicted the onset of both a coworker conflict and a supervisor conflict. Higher levels of coworker and supervisor social support, more autonomy concerning the terms of employment, good overall job satisfaction, monetary gratification, and esteem reward significantly protected against the onset of both a coworker conflict and a supervisor conflict. Higher levels of decision latitude and more career opportunities also significantly protected against the onset of a supervisor conflict. Several factors in the work environment were related to the onset of interpersonal conflicts at work. Given the rather serious consequences of interpersonal conflicts at work with respect to health and well-being, the observed risk factors can serve as a starting point for effective prevention and intervention strategies in the workplace.

  18. Risk Factors in Derivatives Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the article is to analyse and present the classification of risks actual to derivative securities. The analysis is based on classical and modern literature findings and analysis of newest statistical data. The analysis led to the conclusion, that the main risks typical for derivatives contracts and their traders are market risk, liquidity risk, credit and counterparty risk, legal risk and transactions risk. Pricing risk and systemic risk is also quite important. The analysis showed that market risk is the most important kind of risk that in many situations influences the level of remaining risks.

  19. New risk factors for atherosclerosis and patient risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fruchart, Jean-Charles; Nierman, Melchior C.; Stroes, Erik S. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Duriez, Patrick

    2004-01-01

    Advances in our understanding of the ways in which the traditional cardiovascular risk factors, including standard lipid (eg, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and nonlipid (eg, hypertension) risk factors, interact to initiate

  20. Predicting risk and the emergence of schizophrenia.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Clarke, Mary C

    2012-09-01

    This article gives an overview of genetic and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia. The presence of certain molecular, biological, and psychosocial factors at certain points in the life span, has been linked to later development of schizophrenia. All need to be considered in the context of schizophrenia as a lifelong brain disorder. Research interest in schizophrenia is shifting to late childhood\\/early adolescence for screening and preventative measures. This article discusses those environmental risk factors for schizophrenia for which there is the largest evidence base.

  1. Complexity factors and prediction of performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braarud, Per Oeyvind

    1998-03-01

    Understanding of what makes a control room situation difficult to handle is important when studying operator performance, both with respect to prediction as well as improvement of the human performance. A factor analytic approach identified eight factors from operators' answers to an 39 item questionnaire about complexity of the operator's task in the control room. A Complexity Profiling Questionnaire was developed, based on the factor analytic results from the operators' conception of complexity. The validity of the identified complexity factors was studied by prediction of crew performance and prediction of plant performance from ratings of the complexity of scenarios. The scenarios were rated by both process experts and the operators participating in the scenarios, using the Complexity Profiling Questionnaire. The process experts' complexity ratings predicted both crew performance and plant performance, while the operators' rating predicted plant performance only. The results reported are from initial studies of complexity, and imply a promising potential for further studies of the concept. The approach used in the study as well as the reported results are discussed. A chapter about the structure of the conception of complexity, and a chapter about further research conclude the report. (author)

  2. Risk avoidance in sympatric large carnivores: reactive or predictive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broekhuis, Femke; Cozzi, Gabriele; Valeix, Marion; McNutt, John W; Macdonald, David W

    2013-09-01

    1. Risks of predation or interference competition are major factors shaping the distribution of species. An animal's response to risk can either be reactive, to an immediate risk, or predictive, based on preceding risk or past experiences. The manner in which animals respond to risk is key in understanding avoidance, and hence coexistence, between interacting species. 2. We investigated whether cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), known to be affected by predation and competition by lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta), respond reactively or predictively to the risks posed by these larger carnivores. 3. We used simultaneous spatial data from Global Positioning System (GPS) radiocollars deployed on all known social groups of cheetahs, lions and spotted hyaenas within a 2700 km(2) study area on the periphery of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana. The response to risk of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas was explored on three levels: short-term or immediate risk, calculated as the distance to the nearest (contemporaneous) lion or spotted hyaena, long-term risk, calculated as the likelihood of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas based on their cumulative distributions over a 6-month period and habitat-associated risk, quantified by the habitat used by each of the three species. 4. We showed that space and habitat use by cheetahs was similar to that of lions and, to a lesser extent, spotted hyaenas. However, cheetahs avoided immediate risks by positioning themselves further from lions and spotted hyaenas than predicted by a random distribution. 5. Our results suggest that cheetah spatial distribution is a hierarchical process, first driven by resource acquisition and thereafter fine-tuned by predator avoidance; thus suggesting a reactive, rather than a predictive, response to risk. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  3. Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... turn Javascript on. Feature: Skin Cancer Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment Past Issues / Summer 2013 Table ... Articles Skin Cancer Can Strike Anyone / Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment / Timely Healthcare Checkup Catches Melanoma ...

  4. 459 Preventing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors through ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    2011-01-18

    Jan 18, 2011 ... injury. Risk factors may be considered as characteristic indicators ... by examining the cardiovascular risk factors that are related to various forms .... Cross country race, Handball, Jogging, Rope jumping, Running Soccer,.

  5. Risk factors identified for certain lymphoma subtypes

    Science.gov (United States)

    In a large international collaborative analysis of risk factors for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), scientists were able to quantify risk associated with medical history, lifestyle factors, family history of blood or lymph-borne cancers, and occupation for 11

  6. Women's Heart Disease: Heart Disease Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page please turn JavaScript on. Feature: Women's Heart Disease Heart Disease Risk Factors Past Issues / Winter 2014 Table ... or habits may raise your risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). These conditions are known as risk ...

  7. Updating risk prediction tools: a case study in prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ankerst, Donna P; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G; Partin, Alan W; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M

    2012-01-01

    Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically, the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [-2]proPSA measured on an external case-control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  8. Water erosion risk prediction in eucalyptus plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayesse Aparecida da Silva

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Eucalyptus plantations are normally found in vulnerable ecosystems such as steep slope, soil with low natural fertility and lands that were degraded by agriculture. The objective of this study was to obtain Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE factors and use them to estimate water erosion risk in regions with eucalyptus planted. The USLE factors were obtained in field plots under natural rainfall in the Rio Doce Basin, MG, Brazil, and the model applied to assess erosion risk using USLE in a Geographic Information System. The study area showed rainfall-runoff erosivity values from 10,721 to 10,642 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Some soils (Latosols had very low erodibility values (2.0 x 10-4 and 1.0 x 10-4t h MJ-1 mm-1, the topographic factor ranged from 0.03 to 10.57 and crop and management factor values obtained for native forest, eucalyptus and planted pasture were 0.09, 0.12 and 0.22, respectively. Water erosion risk estimates for current land use indicated that the areas where should receive more attention were mainly areas with greater topographic factors and those with Cambisols. Planning of forestry activities in this region should consider implementation of other conservation practices beyond those already used, reducing areas with a greater risk of soil erosion and increasing areas with very low risk.

  9. Interleukin-5, interleukin-6, interleukin-8 and tumour necrosis factor-alpha levels obtained within 24-h of admission do not predict high-risk infection in children with febrile neutropenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Aggarwal

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Biomarkers that can predict the severity of febrile neutropenia (FN are potential tools for clinical practice. Objective: The objective of this study is to evaluate the reliability of plasma interleukin (IL levels as indicators of high-risk FN. Materials and Methods: Children with haematological malignancies and FN were enrolled prospectively. A blood sample was obtained within 24-h of admission for estimation of IL-5, IL-6, IL-8 and tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α level by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Patients were stratified into three groups. Group I (low-risk: No focus of infection; Group II: Clinical/radiological focus of infection; Group III: Microbiologically proven infection or FN related mortality. Groups II and III were analysed as high-risk. The cytokines were assessed at three different cut-off levels. Results: A total of 52 episodes of FN in 48 patients were evaluated. The mean age was 6 years (range: 2-13. Primary diagnosis included acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (82%, non-Hodgkin′s lymphoma (13% and acute myeloid leukaemia (5%. Absolute neutrophil count was < 200 cells/μl in half and 200-500 in 23%. Majority were categorised as Group I (69%, followed by Group II (16% and III (15%. The range of IL-5 was too narrow and similar in the two risk-groups to be of any relevance. The best sensitivity of TNF-α and IL-6 for high-risk group was 78% and 70%, respectively. The highest specificity observed was 35%. The negative predictive value of IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-α exceeded 80%. Conclusion: IL-5, IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-α failed as predictors of clinically localised or microbiologically documented infection in children with chemotherapy induced FN. However, IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-α could be useful in excluding the possibility of high-risk infection.

  10. Risk factors for venous thromboembolism during pregnancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Bo; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Grøn, Randi

    2013-01-01

    Pregnant women are at an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Risk factors for VTE among pregnant women are not sufficiently investigated.......Pregnant women are at an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Risk factors for VTE among pregnant women are not sufficiently investigated....

  11. Investigation on Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Using Physiological Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan-Hua Lin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death worldwide. Early prediction of CVD is urgently important for timely prevention and treatment. Incorporation or modification of new risk factors that have an additional independent prognostic value of existing prediction models is widely used for improving the performance of the prediction models. This paper is to investigate the physiological parameters that are used as risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular events, as well as summarizing the current status on the medical devices for physiological tests and discuss the potential implications for promoting CVD prevention and treatment in the future. The results show that measures extracted from blood pressure, electrocardiogram, arterial stiffness, ankle-brachial blood pressure index (ABI, and blood glucose carry valuable information for the prediction of both long-term and near-term cardiovascular risk. However, the predictive values should be further validated by more comprehensive measures. Meanwhile, advancing unobtrusive technologies and wireless communication technologies allow on-site detection of the physiological information remotely in an out-of-hospital setting in real-time. In addition with computer modeling technologies and information fusion. It may allow for personalized, quantitative, and real-time assessment of sudden CVD events.

  12. Molecular Risk Factors for Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modai, Shira; Shomron, Noam

    2016-03-01

    Schizophrenia (SZ) is a complex and strongly heritable mental disorder, which is also associated with developmental-environmental triggers. As opposed to most diagnosable diseases (yet similar to other mental disorders), SZ diagnosis is commonly based on psychiatric evaluations. Recently, large-scale genetic and epigenetic approaches have been applied to SZ research with the goal of potentially improving diagnosis. Increased computational analyses and applied statistical algorithms may shed some light on the complex genetic and epigenetic pathways contributing to SZ pathogenesis. This review discusses the latest advances in molecular risk factors and diagnostics for SZ. Approaches such as these may lead to a more accurate definition of SZ and assist in creating extended and reliable clinical diagnoses with the potential for personalized treatment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Examining Factors Predicting Students' Digital Competence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatlevik, Ove Edvard; Guðmundsdóttir, Gréta Björk; Loi, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine factors predicting lower secondary school students' digital competence and to explore differences between students when it comes to digital competence. Results from a digital competence test and survey in lower secondary school will be presented. It is important to learn more about and investigate what…

  14. Develop mental dyslexia: predicting individual risk

    OpenAIRE

    Thompson, PA; Hulme, C; Nash, HM; Gooch, Deborah; Hayiou-Thomas, E; Snowling, MJ

    2015-01-01

    Background Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited...

  15. Are low wages risk factors for hypertension?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leigh, J Paul; Du, Juan

    2012-12-01

    Socio-economic status (SES) is strongly correlated with hypertension. But SES has several components, including income and correlations in cross-sectional data need not imply SES is a risk factor. This study investigates whether wages-the largest category within income-are risk factors. We analysed longitudinal, nationally representative US data from four waves (1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005) of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The overall sample was restricted to employed persons age 25-65 years, n = 17 295. Separate subsamples were constructed of persons within two age groups (25-44 and 45-65 years) and genders. Hypertension incidence was self-reported based on physician diagnosis. Our study was prospective since data from three base years (1999, 2001, 2003) were used to predict newly diagnosed hypertension for three subsequent years (2001, 2003, 2005). In separate analyses, data from the first base year were used to predict time-to-reporting hypertension. Logistic regressions with random effects and Cox proportional hazards regressions were run. Negative and strongly statistically significant correlations between wages and hypertension were found both in logistic and Cox regressions, especially for subsamples containing the younger age group (25-44 years) and women. Correlations were stronger when three health variables-obesity, subjective measures of health and number of co-morbidities-were excluded from regressions. Doubling the wage was associated with 25-30% lower chances of hypertension for persons aged 25-44 years. The strongest evidence for low wages being risk factors for hypertension among working people were for women and persons aged 25-44 years.

  16. Population impact of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Holger J; Nielsen, Philip R; Pedersen, Carsten B

    2014-01-01

    Although several studies have examined the relative contributions of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, few have additionally examined the predictive power on the individual level and simultaneously examined the population impact associated with a wide range of familial...... 4.50-5.31). The study showed that risk factors with highest predictive power on the individual level have a relatively low population impact. The challenge in future studies with direct genetic data is to examine gene-environmental interactions that can move research beyond current approaches...... and environmental risk factors. The authors present rate ratios (IRR), population-attributable risks (PAR) and sex-specific cumulative incidences of the following risk factors: parental history of mental illness, urban place of birth, advanced paternal age, parental loss and immigration status. We established...

  17. Risk prediction of hepatotoxicity in paracetamol poisoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Anselm; Graudins, Andis

    2017-09-01

    Paracetamol (acetaminophen) poisoning is the most common cause of acute liver failure in the developed world. A paracetamol treatment nomogram has been used for over four decades to help determine whether patients will develop hepatotoxicity without acetylcysteine treatment, and thus indicates those needing treatment. Despite this, a small proportion of patients still develop hepatotoxicity. More accurate risk predictors would be useful to increase the early detection of patients with the potential to develop hepatotoxicity despite acetylcysteine treatment. Similarly, there would be benefit in early identification of those with a low likelihood of developing hepatotoxicity, as this group may be safely treated with an abbreviated acetylcysteine regimen. To review the current literature related to risk prediction tools that can be used to identify patients at increased risk of hepatotoxicity. A systematic literature review was conducted using the search terms: "paracetamol" OR "acetaminophen" AND "overdose" OR "toxicity" OR "risk prediction rules" OR "hepatotoxicity" OR "psi parameter" OR "multiplication product" OR "half-life" OR "prothrombin time" OR "AST/ALT (aspartate transaminase/alanine transaminase)" OR "dose" OR "biomarkers" OR "nomogram". The search was limited to human studies without language restrictions, of Medline (1946 to May 2016), PubMed and EMBASE. Original articles pertaining to the theme were identified from January 1974 to May 2016. Of the 13,975 articles identified, 60 were relevant to the review. Paracetamol treatment nomograms: Paracetamol treatment nomograms have been used for decades to help decide the need for acetylcysteine, but rarely used to determine the risk of hepatotoxicity with treatment. Reported paracetamol dose and concentration: A dose ingestion >12 g or serum paracetamol concentration above the treatment thresholds on the paracetamol nomogram are associated with a greater risk of hepatotoxicity. Paracetamol elimination half

  18. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzi, F; Patel, A; Gu, D; Sritara, P; Lam, T H; Rodgers, A; Woodward, M

    2007-02-01

    Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. 172,077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25,682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian

  19. Factors predicting dropout in student nursing assistants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Annemarie Lyng; Strøyer, Jesper; Ebbehøj, Niels Erik

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The dropout rate among student nursing assistants (NAs) in Danish health and social care education is high at >20%. AIMS: To explore if recent low back pain (LBP) history is a predictor of dropout among NA students, taking into account conventional risk factors for LBP, general health...

  20. Factors predicting dropout in student nursing assistants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, Annemarie Lyng; Strøyer, Jesper; Ebbehøj, Niels Erik; Mortensen, Ole Steen

    2008-12-01

    The dropout rate among student nursing assistants (NAs) in Danish health and social care education is high at >20%. To explore if recent low back pain (LBP) history is a predictor of dropout among NA students, taking into account conventional risk factors for LBP, general health and physical fitness. Prospective study with 14-month follow-up (the duration of the education) in two schools of health and social care in the Region of Copenhagen, Denmark. Participants completed a comprehensive questionnaire, and their physical fitness (balance, back extension endurance, back flexion endurance and sagittal flexibility) was assessed at baseline. Dropout was defined as failure to complete NA education. A total of 790 subjects, 87% of those invited, completed the questionnaire; 612 subjects also completed the physical tests and were included in the present study and 500 (83%) were women. Recent LBP was not an independent predictor of school dropout. However, only among women who had LBP were other factors (a history of previous exposure to heavy physical workload, a low mental health score and failure to pass the back extension endurance test) associated with risk of dropout, OR (95% CI)=2.5 (1.2-5.3). Among men, only low height was significantly associated with dropout risk. A recent LBP history was not an independent single predictor of dropout from NA education but was a risk factor in combination with other factors.

  1. Obstetric spinal hypotension: Preoperative risk factors and the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obstetric spinal hypotension: Preoperative risk factors and the development of a preliminary risk score – the PRAM score. ... We used empirical cut-point estimations in a logistic regression model to develop a scoring system for prediction of hypotension. Results. From 504 eligible patients, preoperative heart rate (odds ratio ...

  2. Survey of risk factors urinary tract infection

    OpenAIRE

    A Dehghani; M zahedi; M moezzi; M dafei; H Falahzadeh

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Women are very susceptible to urinary tract infections and pregnancy raises the risk of urinary tract infection. In general, little information on the risk factors of urinary tract infection in pregnancy is underway. Urinary tract infection in pregnancy is an important risk factor for pregnancy dire consequences. The purpose of this study is to find risk factors associated with urinary tract infection in pregnant women. Methods: The study was observational and retrospective ...

  3. Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

    2015-04-01

    This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Value of routine blood tests for prediction of mortality risk in hip fracture patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosfeldt, Mathias; Pedersen, Ole Birger Vesterager; Riis, Troels

    2012-01-01

    There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission.......There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission....

  5. New methods for fall risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ejupi, Andreas; Lord, Stephen R; Delbaere, Kim

    2014-09-01

    Accidental falls are the leading cause of injury-related death and hospitalization in old age, with over one-third of the older adults experiencing at least one fall or more each year. Because of limited healthcare resources, regular objective fall risk assessments are not possible in the community on a large scale. New methods for fall prediction are necessary to identify and monitor those older people at high risk of falling who would benefit from participating in falls prevention programmes. Technological advances have enabled less expensive ways to quantify physical fall risk in clinical practice and in the homes of older people. Recently, several studies have demonstrated that sensor-based fall risk assessments of postural sway, functional mobility, stepping and walking can discriminate between fallers and nonfallers. Recent research has used low-cost, portable and objective measuring instruments to assess fall risk in older people. Future use of these technologies holds promise for assessing fall risk accurately in an unobtrusive manner in clinical and daily life settings.

  6. Nonparametric predictive pairwise comparison with competing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen-Maturi, Tahani

    2014-01-01

    In reliability, failure data often correspond to competing risks, where several failure modes can cause a unit to fail. This paper presents nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for pairwise comparison with competing risks data, assuming that the failure modes are independent. These failure modes could be the same or different among the two groups, and these can be both observed and unobserved failure modes. NPI is a statistical approach based on few assumptions, with inferences strongly based on data and with uncertainty quantified via lower and upper probabilities. The focus is on the lower and upper probabilities for the event that the lifetime of a future unit from one group, say Y, is greater than the lifetime of a future unit from the second group, say X. The paper also shows how the two groups can be compared based on particular failure mode(s), and the comparison of the two groups when some of the competing risks are combined is discussed

  7. [Risk factor analysis of the patients with solitary pulmonary nodules and establishment of a prediction model for the probability of malignancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X; Xu, Y H; Du, Z Y; Qian, Y J; Xu, Z H; Chen, R; Shi, M H

    2018-02-23

    Objective: This study aims to analyze the relationship among the clinical features, radiologic characteristics and pathological diagnosis in patients with solitary pulmonary nodules, and establish a prediction model for the probability of malignancy. Methods: Clinical data of 372 patients with solitary pulmonary nodules who underwent surgical resection with definite postoperative pathological diagnosis were retrospectively analyzed. In these cases, we collected clinical and radiologic features including gender, age, smoking history, history of tumor, family history of cancer, the location of lesion, ground-glass opacity, maximum diameter, calcification, vessel convergence sign, vacuole sign, pleural indentation, speculation and lobulation. The cases were divided to modeling group (268 cases) and validation group (104 cases). A new prediction model was established by logistic regression analying the data from modeling group. Then the data of validation group was planned to validate the efficiency of the new model, and was compared with three classical models(Mayo model, VA model and LiYun model). With the calculated probability values for each model from validation group, SPSS 22.0 was used to draw the receiver operating characteristic curve, to assess the predictive value of this new model. Results: 112 benign SPNs and 156 malignant SPNs were included in modeling group. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, history of tumor, ground -glass opacity, maximum diameter, and speculation were independent predictors of malignancy in patients with SPN( P prediction model for the probability of malignancy as follow: p =e(x)/(1+ e(x)), x=-4.8029-0.743×gender+ 0.057×age+ 1.306×history of tumor+ 1.305×ground-glass opacity+ 0.051×maximum diameter+ 1.043×speculation. When the data of validation group was added to the four-mathematical prediction model, The area under the curve of our mathematical prediction model was 0.742, which is greater

  8. Risk Factors of Attempted Suicide in Bipolar Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, Frederick

    2011-01-01

    Suicide rates of bipolar patients are among the highest of any psychiatric disorder, and improved identification of risk factors for attempted and completed suicide translates into improved clinical outcome. Factors that may be predictive of suicidality in an exclusively bipolar population are examined. White race, family suicide history, and…

  9. Predictive factors for somatization in a trauma sample

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elklit, Ask; Christiansen, Dorte M

    2009-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Unexplained somatic symptoms are common among trauma survivors. The relationship between trauma and somatization appears to be mediated by posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, only few studies have focused on what other psychological risk factors may predispose...... a trauma victim towards developing somatoform symptoms. METHODS: The present paper examines the predictive value of PTSD severity, dissociation, negative affectivity, depression, anxiety, and feeling incompetent on somatization in a Danish sample of 169 adult men and women who were affected by a series...... of incompetence significantly predicted somatization in the trauma sample whereas dissociation, depression, and anxiety were not associated with degree of somatization. PTSD as a risk factor was mediated by negative affectivity....

  10. Prevalence, risk factors and risk perception of tuberculosis infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prevalence, risk factors and risk perception of tuberculosis infection among medical students and healthcare workers in Johannesburg, South Africa. A van Rie, K McCarthy, L Scott, A Dow, WDF Venter, WS Stevens ...

  11. Predictive factors for early menarche in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chie, W C; Liu, Y H; Chi, J; Wu, V; Chen, A

    1997-06-01

    The rapid increase of breast cancer in Taiwan has prompted the authors to evaluate the predictive factors of early menarche among contemporary Taiwanese girls. A total of 895 four-grade girls from eight elementary schools in Taipei City and County were identified as a closed cohort from the first semester of 1993. Data were collected from self-administered questionnaires and school records. A total of 799 girls who had not menstruated in the first year remained in the group through 1994. The effects of potential predictive factors were assessed by logistic regression. Among the 799 girls followed, 69 (8.6%) had first menstruation between the fourth and fifth grades. Height, weight, body mass index and maternal early onset of menarche were positively related to the onset of menarche within the preceding year. Energy consumption during exercise showed only moderate association after being adjusted for age and weight. Calorie intake from junk food was not associated with early menarche within the preceding year. Poor interpersonal family relationships and stressful life events also showed a moderate association with early menarche. The data obtained supported the hypothesis that height, weight, body mass index and maternal early menarche are positive predictive factors of early menarche. The effects of exercise and childhood stress are less prominent.

  12. Synthesizing Risk from Summary Evidence Across Multiple Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrier, Ian; Colditz, Graham A; Steele, Russell J

    2018-07-01

    Although meta-analyses provide summary effect estimates that help advise patient care, patients often want to compare their overall health to the general population. The Harvard Cancer Risk Index was published in 2004 and uses risk ratio estimates and prevalence estimates from original studies across many risk factors to provide an answer to this question. However, the published version of the formula only uses dichotomous risk factors and its derivation was not provided. The objective of this brief report was to provide the derivation of a more general form of the equation that allows the incorporation of risk factors with three or more levels.

  13. Cardiovascular risk factors in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraporti, Marisete Inês; Scherer Adami, Fernanda; Dutra Rosolen, Michele

    2017-10-01

    Systemic hypertension is one of the main risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Early diagnosis and treatment of hypertension in childhood can potentially have a significant impact on future adverse outcomes. To investigate the relationship of diastolic (DBP) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) with anthropometric data and area of residence of children in municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. This is a cross-sectional study of 709 children between six and nine years of age. Blood pressure, weight, height and waist circumference (WC) were measured. Statistical tests had a maximum significance level of 5% (p≤0.05) and the software used was SPSS version 13.0. Obesity was significantly associated with pre-hypertension, and stage 1 and 2 hypertension as assessed by DBP and SBP (≤0.05); high WC was significantly associated with a classification of pre-hypertension and stage 1 hypertension based on DBP and a classification of stage 1 and 2 hypertension based on SBP (≤0.01). Children living in urban areas had significantly higher mean SBP than those living in rural areas. Those with high WC presented higher SBP and DBP compared to children with normal WC. Obese children showed higher mean SBP and DBP compared to those who were overweight or normal weight and mean SBP and DBP also increased with older age and higher mean body mass index and WC. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  14. Comparing Bleeding Risk Assessment Focused on Modifiable Risk Factors Only Versus Validated Bleeding Risk Scores in Atrial Fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yutao; Zhu, Hang; Chen, Yundai

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUNDThere is uncertainty whether a focus on modifiable bleeding risk factors offers better prediction of major bleeding than other existing bleeding risk scores.METHODSThis study compared a score based on numbers of the modifiable bleeding risk factors recommended in the 2016 European...... guidelines ("European risk score") versus other published bleeding risk scores that have been derived and validated in atrial fibrillation subjects (HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and ORBIT) in a large hospital-based cohort of Chinese inpatients with atrial fibrillation.RESULTSThe European score had modest...... predictive ability for major bleeding (c-index 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.69) and intracranial hemorrhage (0.72, 0.65-0.79) but nonsignificantly (and poorly) predicted extracranial bleeding (0.55, 0.54-0.56; P = .361). The HAS-BLED score was superior to predict bleeding events compared...

  15. Risk Factors for Internet Gaming Disorder: Psychological Factors and Internet Gaming Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rho, Mi Jung; Lee, Hyeseon; Lee, Taek-Ho; Cho, Hyun; Jung, Dong Jin; Kim, Dai-Jin; Choi, In Young

    2017-12-27

    Background : Understanding the risk factors associated with Internet gaming disorder (IGD) is important to predict and diagnose the condition. The purpose of this study is to identify risk factors that predict IGD based on psychological factors and Internet gaming characteristics; Methods : Online surveys were conducted between 26 November and 26 December 2014. There were 3568 Korean Internet game users among a total of 5003 respondents. We identified 481 IGD gamers and 3087 normal Internet gamers, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-5) criteria. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify significant risk factors for IGD; Results : The following eight risk factors were found to be significantly associated with IGD: functional and dysfunctional impulsivity (odds ratio: 1.138), belief self-control (1.034), anxiety (1.086), pursuit of desired appetitive goals (1.105), money spent on gaming (1.005), weekday game time (1.081), offline community meeting attendance (2.060), and game community membership (1.393; p < 0.05 for all eight risk factors); Conclusions : These risk factors allow for the prediction and diagnosis of IGD. In the future, these risk factors could also be used to inform clinical services for IGD diagnosis and treatment.

  16. Risk Factors for Internet Gaming Disorder: Psychological Factors and Internet Gaming Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mi Jung Rho

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Understanding the risk factors associated with Internet gaming disorder (IGD is important to predict and diagnose the condition. The purpose of this study is to identify risk factors that predict IGD based on psychological factors and Internet gaming characteristics; Methods: Online surveys were conducted between 26 November and 26 December 2014. There were 3568 Korean Internet game users among a total of 5003 respondents. We identified 481 IGD gamers and 3087 normal Internet gamers, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-5 criteria. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify significant risk factors for IGD; Results: The following eight risk factors were found to be significantly associated with IGD: functional and dysfunctional impulsivity (odds ratio: 1.138, belief self-control (1.034, anxiety (1.086, pursuit of desired appetitive goals (1.105, money spent on gaming (1.005, weekday game time (1.081, offline community meeting attendance (2.060, and game community membership (1.393; p < 0.05 for all eight risk factors; Conclusions: These risk factors allow for the prediction and diagnosis of IGD. In the future, these risk factors could also be used to inform clinical services for IGD diagnosis and treatment.

  17. Risk Factors for Internet Gaming Disorder: Psychological Factors and Internet Gaming Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyeseon; Lee, Taek-Ho; Cho, Hyun; Kim, Dai-Jin; Choi, In Young

    2017-01-01

    Background: Understanding the risk factors associated with Internet gaming disorder (IGD) is important to predict and diagnose the condition. The purpose of this study is to identify risk factors that predict IGD based on psychological factors and Internet gaming characteristics; Methods: Online surveys were conducted between 26 November and 26 December 2014. There were 3568 Korean Internet game users among a total of 5003 respondents. We identified 481 IGD gamers and 3087 normal Internet gamers, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-5) criteria. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify significant risk factors for IGD; Results: The following eight risk factors were found to be significantly associated with IGD: functional and dysfunctional impulsivity (odds ratio: 1.138), belief self-control (1.034), anxiety (1.086), pursuit of desired appetitive goals (1.105), money spent on gaming (1.005), weekday game time (1.081), offline community meeting attendance (2.060), and game community membership (1.393; p < 0.05 for all eight risk factors); Conclusions: These risk factors allow for the prediction and diagnosis of IGD. In the future, these risk factors could also be used to inform clinical services for IGD diagnosis and treatment. PMID:29280953

  18. CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is a state-based system of health surveys that collects information on health risk behaviors, preventive...

  19. Predictions of space radiation fatality risk for exploration missions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A; To, Khiet; Cacao, Eliedonna

    2017-05-01

    In this paper we describe revisions to the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model focusing on updates to probability distribution functions (PDF) representing the uncertainties in the radiation quality factor (QF) model parameters and the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF). We integrate recent heavy ion data on liver, colorectal, intestinal, lung, and Harderian gland tumors with other data from fission neutron experiments into the model analysis. In an earlier work we introduced distinct QFs for leukemia and solid cancer risk predictions, and here we consider liver cancer risks separately because of the higher RBE's reported in mouse experiments compared to other tumors types, and distinct risk factors for liver cancer for astronauts compared to the U.S. The revised model is used to make predictions of fatal cancer and circulatory disease risks for 1-year deep space and International Space Station (ISS) missions, and a 940 day Mars mission. We analyzed the contribution of the various model parameter uncertainties to the overall uncertainty, which shows that the uncertainties in relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors at high LET due to statistical uncertainties and differences across tissue types and mouse strains are the dominant uncertainty. NASA's exposure limits are approached or exceeded for each mission scenario considered. Two main conclusions are made: 1) Reducing the current estimate of about a 3-fold uncertainty to a 2-fold or lower uncertainty will require much more expansive animal carcinogenesis studies in order to reduce statistical uncertainties and understand tissue, sex and genetic variations. 2) Alternative model assumptions such as non-targeted effects, increased tumor lethality and decreased latency at high LET, and non-cancer mortality risks from circulatory diseases could significantly increase risk estimates to several times higher than the NASA limits. Copyright © 2017 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR

  20. A classification of risk factors in serious juvenile offenders and the relation between patterns of risk factors and recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Eva; Brand, Eddy; Bullens, Ruud; Van Marle, Hjalmar

    2010-02-01

    There has been a lot of research on risk factors for recidivism among juvenile offenders, in general, and on individual risk factors, but less focus on subgroups of serious juvenile offenders and prediction of recidivism within these. To find an optimal classification of risk items and to test the predictive value of the resultant factors with respect to severity of recidivism among serious juvenile offenders. Seventy static and dynamic risk factors in 1154 juvenile offenders were registered with the Juvenile Forensic Profile. Recidivism data were collected on 728 of these offenders with a time at risk of at least 2 years. After factor analysis, independent sample t-tests were used to indicate differences between recidivists and non-recidivists. Logistic multiple linear regression analyses were used to test the potential predictive value of the factors for violent or serious recidivism. A nine-factor solution best accounted for the data. The factors were: antisocial behaviour during treatment, sexual problems, family problems, axis-1 psychopathology, offence characteristics, conscience and empathy, intellectual and social capacities, social network, and substance abuse. Regression analysis showed that the factors antisocial behaviour during treatment, family problems and axis-1 psychopathology were associated with seriousness of recidivism. The significance of family problems and antisocial behaviour during treatments suggest that specific attention to these factors may be important in reducing recidivism. The fact that antisocial behaviour during treatment consists mainly of dynamic risk factors is hopeful as these can be influenced by treatment. Consideration of young offenders by subgroup rather than as a homogenous population is likely to yield the best information about risk of serious re-offending and the management of that risk.

  1. CHILDHOOD RISK FACTORS PREDICT CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE, IMPAIRED FASTING GLUCOSE PLUS TYPE 2 DIABETES MELLITUS, AND HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE 26 YEARS LATER AT MEAN AGE 38: THE PRINCETON-LRC FOLLOW-UP STUDY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, John A; Glueck, Charles J.; Wang, Ping

    2012-01-01

    Objective Assess whether pediatric risk factors predict cardiovascular disease (CVD), impaired fasting glucose (IFG) + type 2 diabetes (T2DM), and high blood pressure (HBP) in young adulthood. Materials/Methods Prospective follow-up of 909 public-parochial suburban schoolchildren first studied at ages 6–18 and 26 years later at mean age 38. Pediatric triglycerides (TG), blood pressure, LDL cholesterol (LDLC), BMI, and glucose above and HDL cholesterol (HDLC) below established pediatric cutoffs, along with race, cigarette smoking, family history of CVD, T2DM, and HBP were assessed as determinants of young adult CVD, a composite variable including IFG + T2DM, and HBP. Results By stepwise logistic regression, adult CVD (19 yes, 862 no) was associated with pediatric high TG, odds ratio (OR) 5.85, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 2.3–14.7. High TG in pediatric probands with young adult CVD was familial, and was associated with early CVD in their high TG parents. Adult IFG + T2DM (114 yes, 535 no) was associated with parental T2DM (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.38–3.6), high childhood glucose (OR 4.43, 95% CI 2–9.7), and childhood cigarette smoking (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.03–2.61). Adult HBP (133 yes, 475 no) was associated with pediatric high BMI (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.7–4.3) and HBP (OR=2.5, 95% CI 1.5–4.3). Conclusions Pediatric risk factors are significantly, independently related to young adult CVD, IFG+T2DM, and HBP. Identification of pediatric risk factors for CVD, IFG+T2DM, and HBP facilitates initiation of primary prevention programs to reduce development of adult CVD, IFG+T2DM, and HBP. PMID:22001337

  2. Predicting frequency distribution and influence of sociodemographic and behavioral risk factors of Schistosoma mansoni infection and analysis of co-infection with intestinal parasites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla V.V. Rollemberg

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Geospatial analysis was used to study the epidemiology of Schistosoma mansoni, intestinal parasites and co-infections in an area (Ilha das Flores in Sergipe, Brazil. We collected individually georeferenced sociodemographic, behavioral and parasitological data from 500 subjects, analyzed them by conventional statistics, and produced risk maps by Kernel estimation. The prevalence rates found were: S. mansoni (24.0%, Trichuris trichiura (54.8%, Ascaris lumbricoides (49.2%, Hookworm (17.6% and Entamoeba histolytica (7.0%. Only 59/500 (11.8% individuals did not present any of these infections, whereas 279/500 (55.8% were simultaneously infected by three or more parasites. We observed associations between S. mansoni infection and various variables such as male gender, being rice farmer or fisherman, low educational level, low income, water contact and drinking untreated water. The Kernel estimator indicated that high-risk areas coincide with the poorest regions of the villages as well as with the part of the villages without an adequate sewage system. We also noted associations between both A. lumbricoides and hookworm infections with low education and low income. A. lumbricoides infection and T. trichiura infection were both associated with drinking untreated water and residential open-air sewage. These findings call for an integrated approach to effectively control multiple parasitic infections.

  3. Risk factors for corneal ectasia after LASIK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabbara, Khalid F; Kotb, Amgad A

    2006-09-01

    To establish a grading system that helps identify high-risk individuals who may experience corneal ectasia after LASIK. Retrospective, comparative, interventional case series. One hundred forty-eight consecutive patients (148 eyes) were included in this study. Thirty-seven patients who underwent LASIK at other refractive centers experienced corneal ectasia in 1 eye after LASIK. One hundred eleven eyes of 111 patients who underwent successful LASIK during the same period were age and gender matched and served as controls. All patients underwent preoperative and postoperative topographic analysis of the cornea. The follow-up period in both groups of patients ranged from 2 to 5 years, with a mean follow-up of 3.6 years. All patients underwent LASIK for myopia (spherical equivalent, -4.00 to -8.00 diopters). Corneal keratometry, oblique cylinder, pachymetry, posterior surface elevation, difference between the inferior and superior corneal diopteric power, and posterior best sphere fit (BSF) over anterior BSF were given a grade of 1 to 3 each. An ectasia grading system was established, and the cumulative risk score was assessed. Patients who had a grade of 7 or less showed no evidence of corneal ectasia, whereas 16 (59%) of 27 patients who had a grade of 8 to 12 had corneal ectasia. Twenty-one (100%) of 21 patients with a grade of more than 12 had corneal ectasia after LASIK (P<0.0001). A risk score may help in the prediction of patients who are at risk of experiencing corneal ectasia after LASIK. A prospective clinical study is needed to assess the validity of these risk factors.

  4. Risk Factors and Biomarkers of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Nathan G.; Singh, Malkit K.; ElShelmani, Hanan; Mansergh, Fiona C.; Wride, Michael A.; Padilla, Maximilian; Keegan, David; Hogg, Ruth E.; Ambati, Balamurali K.

    2016-01-01

    A biomarker can be a substance or structure measured in body parts, fluids or products that can affect or predict disease incidence. As age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the developed world, much research and effort has been invested in the identification of different biomarkers to predict disease incidence, identify at risk individuals, elucidate causative pathophysiological etiologies, guide screening, monitoring and treatment parameters, and predict disease outcomes. To date, a host of genetic, environmental, proteomic, and cellular targets have been identified as both risk factors and potential biomarkers for AMD. Despite this, their use has been confined to research settings and has not yet crossed into the clinical arena. A greater understanding of these factors and their use as potential biomarkers for AMD can guide future research and clinical practice. This article will discuss known risk factors and novel, potential biomarkers of AMD in addition to their application in both academic and clinical settings. PMID:27156982

  5. Cumulative interpersonal traumas and social support as risk and resiliency factors in predicting PTSD and depression among inner-city women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumm, Jeremiah A; Briggs-Phillips, Melissa; Hobfoll, Stevan E

    2006-12-01

    This study represents one of the largest examinations of how child abuse, adult rape, and social support impact inner-city women (N = 777). Using retrospective self-report, the effects of interpersonal trauma were shown to be cumulative such that women who experienced either child abuse or adult rape were 6 times more likely to have probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), whereas women who experienced both child abuse and rape were 17 times more likely to have probable PTSD. High social support predicted lower PTSD severity for women who experienced both child abuse and adult rape, but not for women who reported one or none of these traumas. Results suggest that social support, when left intact, might buffer the cumulative impact of child and adult interpersonal traumas.

  6. Predictive factors for oropharyngeal dysphagia after prolonged orotracheal intubation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Ana Carolina Martins de; Friche, Amélia Augusta de Lima; Salomão, Marina Silva; Bougo, Graziela Chamarelli; Vicente, Laélia Cristina Caseiro

    2017-09-13

    Lesions in the oral cavity, pharynx and larynx due to endotracheal intubation can cause reduction in the local motility and sensitivity, impairing the swallowing process, resulting in oropharyngeal dysphagia. To verify the predictive factors for the development of oropharyngeal dysphagia and the risk of aspiration in patients with prolonged orotracheal intubation admitted to an intensive care unit. This is an observational, analytical, cross-sectional and retrospective data collection study of 181 electronic medical records of patients submitted to prolonged orotracheal intubation. Data on age; gender; underlying disease; associated comorbidities; time and reason for orotracheal intubation; Glasgow scale on the day of the Speech Therapist assessment; comprehension; vocal quality; presence and severity of dysphagia; risk of bronchoaspiration; and the suggested oral route were collected. The data were analyzed through logistic regression. The level of significance was set at 5%, with a 95% Confidence Interval. The prevalence of dysphagia in this study was 35.9% and the risk of aspiration was 24.9%. As the age increased, the altered vocal quality and the degree of voice impairment increased the risk of the presence of dysphagia by 5-; 45.4- and 6.7-fold, respectively, and of aspiration by 6-; 36.4- and 4.8-fold. The increase in the time of orotracheal intubation increased the risk of aspiration by 5.5-fold. Patients submitted to prolonged intubation who have risk factors associated with dysphagia and aspiration should be submitted to an early speech-language/audiology assessment and receive appropriate and timely treatment. The recognition of these predictive factors by the entire multidisciplinary team can minimize the possibility of clinical complications inherent to the risk of dysphagia and aspiration in extubated patients. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda.

  7. Can Childhood Factors Predict Workplace Deviance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piquero, Nicole Leeper; Moffitt, Terrie E

    2014-07-01

    Compared to the more common focus on street crime, empirical research on workplace deviance has been hampered by highly select samples, cross-sectional research designs, and limited inclusion of relevant predictor variables that bear on important theoretical debates. A key debate concerns the extent to which childhood conduct-problem trajectories influence crime over the life-course, including adults' workplace crime, whether childhood low self-control is a more important determinant than trajectories, and/or whether each or both of these childhood factors relate to later criminal activity. This paper provides evidence on this debate by examining two types of workplace deviance: production and property deviance separately for males and females. We use data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, a birth cohort followed into adulthood, to examine how childhood factors (conduct-problem trajectories and low self-control) and then adult job characteristics predict workplace deviance at age 32. Analyses revealed that none of the childhood factors matter for predicting female deviance in the workplace but that conduct-problem trajectories did account for male workplace deviance.

  8. Cardiovascular risk-factor knowledge and risk perception among HIV-infected adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cioe, Patricia A; Crawford, Sybil L; Stein, Michael D

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as a major cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected adults. Research in noninfected populations has suggested that knowledge of CVD risk factors significantly influences perceptions of risk. This cross-sectional study describes CVD risk factor knowledge and risk perception in HIV-infected adults. We recruited 130 HIV-infected adults (mean age = 48 years, 62% male, 56% current smokers, mean years since HIV diagnosis, 14.7). The mean CVD risk factor knowledge score was fairly high. However, controlling for age, CVD risk factor knowledge was not predictive of perceived risk [F(1, 117) = 0.13, p > .05]. Estimated risk and perceived risk were weakly but significantly correlated; r (126) = .24, p = .01. HIV-infected adults are at increased risk for CVD. Despite having adequate risk-factor knowledge, CVD risk perception was inaccurate. Improving risk perception and developing CVD risk reduction interventions for this population are imperative. Copyright © 2014 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Do Psychosocial Factors Predict Readmission among Diabetic Elderly Patients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alavi, Mousa; Baharlooei, Omeleila; AdelMehraban, Marzieh

    2017-01-01

    Despite advances in diabetes treatment, the rate of readmission is still relatively high among these patients, especially in older population. Various factors may predict readmission in these patients; hence, the aim of this study was to assess the role of psychosocial factors in predicting readmission among diabetic elderly hospitalized in selected hospitals of Isfahan. In this cross-sectional study conducted from January to September 2016, 150 diabetic elderly hospitalized in selected hospitals affiliated with Isfahan University of medical sciences were chosen using a convenient sampling method. The initial information was collected by a three-part questionnaire consisting of (a) demographic characteristics, (b) 21-item depression, anxiety, and stress scale (DASS-21), and (c) multidimensional scale of perceived social support (MSPSS). Further information about readmission was gathered 3 months after completing the questionnaires through a phone call follow-up. Descriptive and inferential statistics (discriminant function analysis test) were used to analyze the data. During 3 months after discharge, 44% of hospitalized diabetic elderly were readmitted. Analytical model predicted the readmission status of 109 individuals (of total 150 persons) in the studied units (success rate of 72.2%). Among predicting factors, depression and social support had the most and the least important roles in predicting readmission rate, respectively. Interventions to improve mental status (i.e., decreasing levels of depression, anxiety, and stress) and develop social support are suggested to reduce the risk of readmission among diabetic elderly patients. Nevertheless, future studies are needed to verify the value of such interventions.

  10. Lung cancer in never smokers Epidemiology and risk prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, William J.; Meza, Rafael; Jeon, Jihyoun; Moolgavkar, Suresh

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter we review the epidemiology of lung cancer incidence and mortality among never smokers/ nonsmokers and describe the never smoker lung cancer risk models used by CISNET modelers. Our review focuses on those influences likely to have measurable population impact on never smoker risk, such as secondhand smoke, even though the individual-level impact may be small. Occupational exposures may also contribute importantly to the population attributable risk of lung cancer. We examine the following risk factors in this chapter: age, environmental tobacco smoke, cooking fumes, ionizing radiation including radon gas, inherited genetic susceptibility, selected occupational exposures, preexisting lung disease, and oncogenic viruses. We also compare the prevalence of never smokers between the three CISNET smoking scenarios and present the corresponding lung cancer mortality estimates among never smokers as predicted by a typical CISNET model. PMID:22882894

  11. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  12. Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

    2016-08-01

    Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The role of social networks and media receptivity in predicting age of smoking initiation: a proportional hazards model of risk and protective factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, J B; Chen, X

    1999-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of adolescent smoking demonstrates the need to identify factors associated with early smoking initiation. Previous studies have shown that smoking by social network members and receptivity to pro-tobacco marketing are associated with smoking among adolescents. It is not clear, however, whether these variables also are associated with the age of smoking initiation. Using data from 10,030 California adolescents, this study identified significant correlates of age of smoking initiation using bivariate methods and a multivariate proportional hazards model. Age of smoking initiation was earlier among those adolescents whose friends, siblings, or parents were smokers, and among those adolescents who had a favorite tobacco advertisement, had received tobacco promotional items, or would be willing to use tobacco promotional items. Results suggest that the smoking behavior of social network members and pro-tobacco media influences are important determinants of age of smoking initiation. Because early smoking initiation is associated with higher levels of addiction in adulthood, tobacco control programs should attempt to counter these influences.

  14. Early dropout predictive factors in obesity treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelini, Ilaria; Falchi, Anna Giulia; Muggia, Chiara; Grecchi, Ilaria; Montagna, Elisabetta; De Silvestri, Annalisa; Tinelli, Carmine

    2014-02-01

    Diet attrition and failure of long term treatment are very frequent in obese patients. This study aimed to identify pre-treatment variables determining dropout and to customise the characteristics of those most likely to abandon the program before treatment, thus making it possible to modify the therapy to increase compliance. A total of 146 outpatients were consecutively enrolled; 73 patients followed a prescriptive diet while 73 followed a novel brief group Cognitive Behavioural Treatment (CBT) in addition to prescriptive diet. The two interventions lasted for six months. Anthropometric, demographic, psychological parameters and feeding behaviour were assessed, the last two with the Italian instrument VCAO Ansisa; than, a semi-structured interview was performed on motivation to lose weight. To identify the baseline dropout risk factors among these parameters, univariate and multivariate logistic models were used. Comparison of the results in the two different treatments showed a higher attrition rate in CBT group, despite no statistically significant difference between the two treatment arms (P = 0.127). Dropout patients did not differ significantly from those who did not dropout with regards to sex, age, Body Mass Index (BMI), history of cycling, education, work and marriage. Regardless of weight loss, the most important factor that determines the dropout appears to be a high level of stress revealed by General Health Questionnaire-28 items (GHQ-28) score within VCAO test. The identification of hindering factors during the assessment is fundamental to reduce the dropout risk. For subjects at risk, it would be useful to dedicate a stress management program before beginning a dietary restriction.

  15. Risk Factors for Depression : Differential Across Age?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaakxs, Roxanne; Comijs, Hannie C; van der Mast, Roos C; Schoevers, Robert A; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Penninx, Brenda W J H

    INTRODUCTION: The occurrence of well-established risk factors for depression differs across the lifespan. Risk factors may be more strongly associated with depression at ages when occurrence, and therefore expectance, is relatively low ("on-time off-time" hypothesis). This large-scale study examined

  16. Physical risk factors for neck pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ariëns, Geertje A M; Van Mechelen, Willem; Bongers, Paulien M.; Bouter, Lex M.; Van Der Wal, Gerrit

    2000-01-01

    To identify physical risk factors for neck pain, a systematic review of the literature was carried out. Based on methodological quality and study design, 4 levels of evidence were defined to establish the strength of evidence for the relationship between risk factors and neck pain. Altogether, 22

  17. Data collection on risk factors in pregnancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zetstra-van der Woude, Alethea Priscilla

    2016-01-01

    This thesis aims to investigate the different methods of data collection of risk factors in pregnancy. Several observational epidemiologic study designs were used to assess associations between risk factors and negative birth outcomes. We especially looked at the use of folic acid around pregnancy

  18. Predictive Factors for Death After Snake Envenomation in Myanmar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, Kyi-Phyu; Thanachartwet, Vipa; Soe, Chit; Desakorn, Varunee; Chamnanchanunt, Supat; Sahassananda, Duangjai; Supaporn, Thanom; Sitprija, Visith

    2018-06-01

    Factors predictive for death from snake envenomation vary between studies, possibly due to variation in host genetic factors and venom composition. This study aimed to evaluate predictive factors for death from snake envenomation in Myanmar. A prospective study was performed among adult patients with snakebite admitted to tertiary hospitals in Yangon, Myanmar, from May 2015 to August 2016. Data including clinical variables and laboratory parameters, management, and outcomes were evaluated. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to evaluate factors predictive for death at the time of presentation to the hospital. Of the 246 patients with snake envenomation recruited into the study, 225 (92%) survived and 21 (8%) died during hospitalization. The snake species responsible for a bite was identified in 74 (30%) of the patients; the majority of bites were from Russell's vipers (63 patients, 85%). The independent factors predictive for death included 1) duration from bite to arrival at the hospital >1 h (odds ratio [OR]: 9.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-75.2; P=0.04); 2) white blood cell counts >20 ×10 3 cells·μL -1 (OR: 8.9, 95% CI: 2.3-33.7; P=0.001); and 3) the presence of capillary leakage (OR: 3.7, 95% CI: 1.2-11.2; P=0.02). A delay in antivenom administration >4 h increases risk of death (11/21 deaths). Patients who present with these independent predictive factors should be recognized and provided with early appropriate intervention to reduce the mortality rate among adults with snake envenomation in Myanmar. Copyright © 2018 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Malnutrition predicting factors in hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahromi, Soodeh Razeghi; Hosseini, Saeed; Razeghi, Effat; Meysamie, Ali pasha; Sadrzadeh, Haleh

    2010-09-01

    Malnutrition is a predictor of increased mortality in chronic hemodialysis (HD) patients. Various factors may contribute to malnutrition in these patients including energy and protein intake, inflammation, and comorbidity. To determine the importance of these factors in malnutrition of chronic HD patients, we studied 112 chronic HD patients in two centers was evaluated with the Dialysis Malnutrition Score (DMS) and anthropometric and biochemical indices. Seventy six (67.8%) patients were classified as malnourished. According to DMS score, poor protein intake (r= -0.34, Penergy intake (r= - 0.18, Pmalnutrition in descending order of importance. Multiple regression analysis showed that only poor protein intake was the explanatory variable of anthropometric measurements decline including body mass index, triceps skin fold thick-ness, mid arm circumference, mid arm muscle circumference, fat free mass, fat mass, albumin, creatinine and transferrine. None of the mentioned factors predicted the decrease of biochemical markers. We conclude that the frequency of malnutrition is high in our population and poor protein intake is the primary contributing factor for this condition. Therefore, providing enough protein may be a simple and effective way in preventing malnutrition in these patients.

  20. Examining Factors Predicting Students’ Digital Competence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ove Edvard Hatlevik

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to examine factors predicting lower secondary school students’ digital competence and to explore differences between students when it comes to digital competence. Results from a digital competence test and survey in lower secondary school will be presented. It is important to learn more about and investigate what characterizes students’ digital competence. A sample of 852 ninth-grade Norwegian students from 38 schools participated in the study. The students answered a 26 item multiple-choice digital competence test and a self-report questionnaire about family background, motivation, and previous grades. Structural equation modeling was used to test a model of the hypothesised relationship between family background, mastery orientation, previous achievements, and digital competence. The results indicate variation in digital competence among the ninth-graders. Further, analyses showed that students’ conditions at home, i.e., language integration and cultural capital, together with mastery orientation and academic achievements predict students digital competence. This study indicates that that there is evidence of digital diversity between lower secondary students. It does not seem like the development of digital competence among the students happens automatically. Students’ family background and school performance are the most important factors. Therefore, as this study shows, it is necessary to further investigate how schools can identify students’ level of competence and to develop plans and actions for how schools can help to try to equalize differences.

  1. Transient risk factors of acute occupational injuries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østerlund, Anna H; Lander, Flemming; Nielsen, Kent

    2017-01-01

    Objectives The objectives of this study were to (i) identify transient risk factors of occupational injuries and (ii) determine if the risk varies with age, injury severity, job task, and industry risk level. Method A case-crossover design was used to examine the effect of seven specific transient...... risk factors (time pressure, disagreement with someone, feeling sick, being distracted by someone, non-routine task, altered surroundings, and broken machinery and materials) for occupational injuries. In the study, 1693 patients with occupational injuries were recruited from a total of 4002...... in relation to sex, age, job task, industry risk level, or injury severity. Conclusion Use of a case-crossover design identified several worker-related transient risk factors (time pressure, feeling sick, being distracted by someone) that led to significantly increased risks for occupational injuries...

  2. Risk predictive modelling for diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kengne, Andre Pascal; Masconi, Katya; Mbanya, Vivian Nchanchou; Lekoubou, Alain; Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin Basile; Matsha, Tandi E

    2014-02-01

    Absolute risk models or clinical prediction models have been incorporated in guidelines, and are increasingly advocated as tools to assist risk stratification and guide prevention and treatments decisions relating to common health conditions such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus. We have reviewed the historical development and principles of prediction research, including their statistical underpinning, as well as implications for routine practice, with a focus on predictive modelling for CVD and diabetes. Predictive modelling for CVD risk, which has developed over the last five decades, has been largely influenced by the Framingham Heart Study investigators, while it is only ∼20 years ago that similar efforts were started in the field of diabetes. Identification of predictive factors is an important preliminary step which provides the knowledge base on potential predictors to be tested for inclusion during the statistical derivation of the final model. The derived models must then be tested both on the development sample (internal validation) and on other populations in different settings (external validation). Updating procedures (e.g. recalibration) should be used to improve the performance of models that fail the tests of external validation. Ultimately, the effect of introducing validated models in routine practice on the process and outcomes of care as well as its cost-effectiveness should be tested in impact studies before wide dissemination of models beyond the research context. Several predictions models have been developed for CVD or diabetes, but very few have been externally validated or tested in impact studies, and their comparative performance has yet to be fully assessed. A shift of focus from developing new CVD or diabetes prediction models to validating the existing ones will improve their adoption in routine practice.

  3. Prediction of tension-type headache risk in adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Stepanchenko

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Tension-type headache is the actual problem of adolescent neurology, which is associated with the prevalence of the disease, the tendency of the disease to the chronic course and a negative impact on performance in education, work capacity and quality of patients’ life. The aim. To develop a method for prediction of tension-type headache occurrence in adolescents. Materials and methods. 2342 adolescent boys and girls at the age of 13-17 years in schools of Kharkiv were examined. We used questionnaire to identify the headache. A group of adolescents with tension-type headache - 1430 people (61.1% was selected. The control group included 246 healthy adolescents. Possible risk factors for tension-type headache formation were divided into 4 groups: genetic, biomedical, psychosocial and social. Mathematical prediction of tension-type headache risk in adolescents was performed using the method of intensive indicators normalization of E.N. Shigan, which was based on probabilistic Bayesian’s method. The result was presented in the form of prognostic coefficients. Results. The most informative risk factors for tension-type headache development were the diseases, from which the teenager suffered after 1 year (sleep disorders, gastrointestinal diseases, autonomic disorders in the family history, traumatic brain injury, physical inactivity, poor adaptation of the patient in the kindergarten and school, stresses. Diagnostic scale has been developed to predict the risk of tension-type headache. It includes 23 prognostic factors with their gradation and meaning of integrated risk indicator, depending on individual factor strength influence. The risk of tension-type headache development ranged from 25,27 to 81,43 values of prognostic coefficient (low probability (25,27-43,99, the average probability (43,99-62,71 and high probability (62,71- 81,43. Conclusion. The study of tension-type headache risk factors, which were obtained by using an assessed and

  4. Risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter ruptures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jangö, Hanna; Langhoff-Roos, J; Rosthøj, Steen

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Jangö H, Langhoff-Roos J, Rosthøj S, Sakse A. Risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter ruptures: a population-based cohort study. BJOG 2012;00:000-000 DOI: 10.1111/j.1471-0528.2012.03486.x. Objective  To determine the incidence and risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter...... were used to determine risk factors of recurrent ASR. Main outcome measures  The incidence of recurrent ASR and odds ratios for possible risk factors of recurrent ASR: age, body mass index, grade of ASR, birthweight, head circumference, gestational age, presentation, induction of labour, oxytocin...... augmentation, epidural, episiotomy, vacuum extraction, forceps, shoulder dystocia, delivery interval and year of second delivery. Results  Out of 159 446 women, 7336 (4.6%) experienced an ASR at first delivery, and 521 (7.1%) had a recurrent ASR (OR 5.91). The risk factors of recurrent ASR in the multivariate...

  5. Contextual factors in liquidity risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonner, C.; van Lelyveld, I.P.P.; Zymek, R.

    2015-01-01

    We assess the determinants of banks’ liquidity holdings using data for nearly 7000 banks from 25 OECD countries. We highlight the role of several bank-specific, institutional and policy variables in shaping banks’ liquidity risk management. Our main question is whether liquidity regulation

  6. Predicting the risk of rheumatoid arthritis and its age of onset through modelling genetic risk variants with smoking.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian C Scott

    Full Text Available The improved characterisation of risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA suggests they could be combined to identify individuals at increased disease risks in whom preventive strategies may be evaluated. We aimed to develop an RA prediction model capable of generating clinically relevant predictive data and to determine if it better predicted younger onset RA (YORA. Our novel modelling approach combined odds ratios for 15 four-digit/10 two-digit HLA-DRB1 alleles, 31 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs and ever-smoking status in males to determine risk using computer simulation and confidence interval based risk categorisation. Only males were evaluated in our models incorporating smoking as ever-smoking is a significant risk factor for RA in men but not women. We developed multiple models to evaluate each risk factor's impact on prediction. Each model's ability to discriminate anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA-positive RA from controls was evaluated in two cohorts: Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC: 1,516 cases; 1,647 controls; UK RA Genetics Group Consortium (UKRAGG: 2,623 cases; 1,500 controls. HLA and smoking provided strongest prediction with good discrimination evidenced by an HLA-smoking model area under the curve (AUC value of 0.813 in both WTCCC and UKRAGG. SNPs provided minimal prediction (AUC 0.660 WTCCC/0.617 UKRAGG. Whilst high individual risks were identified, with some cases having estimated lifetime risks of 86%, only a minority overall had substantially increased odds for RA. High risks from the HLA model were associated with YORA (P<0.0001; ever-smoking associated with older onset disease. This latter finding suggests smoking's impact on RA risk manifests later in life. Our modelling demonstrates that combining risk factors provides clinically informative RA prediction; additionally HLA and smoking status can be used to predict the risk of younger and older onset RA, respectively.

  7. Intrinsic Risk Factors of Falls in Elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasmin Amatullah

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Falls are common geriatric problems. The risk factors of falls are the intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors. Studies on falls are scarcely conducted in Indonesia, especially in Bandung. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify the intrinsic risk factors of falls among elderly. Methods: A descriptive study was carried out from August to October 2013 at the Geriatric Clinic of Dr. Hasan Sadikin General Hospital Bandung. Fifty three participants were selected according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria using consecutive sampling. The determined variables in this study were classification of the risk of falls, demographic profile, history of falls, disease, and medications. After the selection, the participants were tested by Timed up-and-go test (TUGT. Moreover, an interview and analysis of medical records were carried out to discover the risk factors of falls. The collected data were analyzed and presented in the form of percentages shown in tables. Results: From 53 patients, women (35.66% were considered to have higher risk of fall than men (18.34%. The majority of patients (66% with the risk of fall were from the age group 60–74 years. The major diseases suffered by patients were hypertension, osteoarthritis and diabetes mellitus. Drugs that were widely used were antihypertensive drugs; analgesic and antipyretic drugs and antidiabetic drugs. Conclusions: There are various intrinsic risk factors of falls in elderly and each of the elderly has more than one intrinsic risk factor of falls.

  8. Factors predicting dysphagia after anterior cervical surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tao; Ma, Lei; Yang, Da-Long; Wang, Hui; Bai, Zhi-Long; Zhang, Li-Jun; Ding, Wen-Yuan

    2017-01-01

    Abstract A multicenter retrospective study. The purpose of this study was to explore risk factors of dysphagia after anterior cervical surgery and factors affecting rehabilitation of dysphagia 2 years after surgery. Patients who underwent anterior cervical surgery at 3 centers from January 2010 to January 2013 were included. The possible factors included 3 aspects: demographic variables—age, sex, body mass index (BMI): hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, smoking, alcohol use, diagnose (cervical spondylotic myelopathy or ossification of posterior longitudinal ligament), preoperative visual analogue scale (VAS), Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA), surgical-related variables—surgical option (ACDF, ACCF, ACCDF, or Zero profile), operation time, blood loss, operative level, superior fusion segment, incision length, angle of C2 to C7, height of C2 to C7, cervical circumference, cervical circumference/height of C2 to C7. The results of our study indicated that the rate of dysphagia at 0, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after surgery was 20%, 5.4%, 2.4%, 1.1%, and 0.4%, respectively. Our results showed that age (58.8 years old), BMI (27.3 kg/m2), course of disease (11.6 months), operation time (103.2 min), blood loss (151.6 mL), incision length (9.1 cm), cervical circumference (46.8 cm), angle of C2 to C7 (15.3°), cervical circumference/height of C2 to C7 (4.8), preoperative VAS (7.5), and ODI (0.6) in dysphagia group were significantly higher than those (52.0, 24.6, 8.6, 88.2, 121.6, 8.6, 42.3, 12.6, 3.7, 5.6, and 0.4, respectively) in nondysphagia group; however, height of C2 to C7 (9.9 vs 11.7 cm) and preoperative JOA (8.3 vs 10.7) had opposite trend between 2 groups. We could also infer that female, smoking, diabetes, ossification of posterior longitudinal ligament, ACCDF, multilevel surgery, and superior fusion segment including C2 to C3 or C6 to C7 were the risk factors for dysphagia after surgery immediately. However

  9. Smoking among American adolescents: a risk and protective factor analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scal, Peter; Ireland, Marjorie; Borowsky, Iris Wagman

    2003-04-01

    Cigarette smoking remains a substantial threat to the current and future health of America's youth. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk and protective factors for cigarette smoking among US adolescents. Data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health was used, comparing the responses of all non-smokers at Time 1 for their ability to predict the likelihood of smoking at Time 2, one year later. Data was stratified into four gender by grade group cohorts. Cross-cutting risk factors for smoking among all four cohorts were: using alcohol, marijuana, and other illicit drugs; violence involvement; having had sex; having friends who smoke and learning problems. Having a higher grade point average and family connectedness were protective across all cohorts. Other gender and grade group specific risk and protective factors were identified. The estimated probability of initiating smoking decreased by 19.2% to 54.1% both in situations of high and low risk as the number of protective factors present increased. Of the factors that predict or protect against smoking some are influential across all gender and grade group cohorts studied, while others are specific to gender and developmental stage. Prevention efforts that target both the reduction of risk factors and enhancement of protective factors at the individual, family, peer group and community are likely to reduce the likelihood of smoking initiation.

  10. A Novel Risk Scoring System Reliably Predicts Readmission Following Pancreatectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, Vicente; Grimm, Joshua C.; Kilic, Arman; Lewis, Russell L.; Tosoian, Jeffrey J.; He, Jin; Griffin, James; Cameron, John L.; Weiss, Matthew J.; Vollmer, Charles M.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    Background Postoperative readmissions have been proposed by Medicare as a quality metric and may impact provider reimbursement. Since readmission following pancreatectomy is common, we sought to identify factors associated with readmission in order to establish a predictive risk scoring system (RSS). Study Design A retrospective analysis of 2,360 pancreatectomies performed at nine, high-volume pancreatic centers between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Forty-five factors strongly associated with readmission were identified. To derive and validate a RSS, the population was randomly divided into two cohorts in a 4:1 fashion. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and scores were assigned based on the relative odds ratio of each independent predictor. A composite Readmission After Pancreatectomy (RAP) score was generated and then stratified to create risk groups. Results Overall, 464 (19.7%) patients were readmitted within 90-days. Eight pre- and postoperative factors, including prior myocardial infarction (OR 2.03), ASA Class ≥ 3 (OR 1.34), dementia (OR 6.22), hemorrhage (OR 1.81), delayed gastric emptying (OR 1.78), surgical site infection (OR 3.31), sepsis (OR 3.10) and short length of stay (OR 1.51), were independently predictive of readmission. The 32-point RAP score generated from the derivation cohort was highly predictive of readmission in the validation cohort (AUC 0.72). The low (0-3), intermediate (4-7) and high risk (>7) groups correlated to 11.7%, 17.5% and 45.4% observed readmission rates, respectively (preadmission following pancreatectomy. Identification of patients with increased risk of readmission using the RAP score will allow efficient resource allocation aimed to attenuate readmission rates. It also has potential to serve as a new metric for comparative research and quality assessment. PMID:25797757

  11. Kindergarten risk factors, cognitive factors, and teacher judgments as predictors of early reading in Dutch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gijsel, Martine A R; Bosman, Anna M T; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2006-01-01

    This study focused on the predictive value of risk factors, cognitive factors, and teachers' judgments in a sample of 462 kindergartners for their early reading skills and reading failure at the beginning of Grade 1. With respect to risk factors, enrollment in speech-language therapy, history of dyslexia or speech-language problems in the family, and the role of gender were considered. None of these risk factors were significantly related to reading performance. Cognitive factors in this study included letter knowledge, rapid naming ability, and nonword repetition skills. Of these skills, letter knowledge seemed to have the highest correlation with reading. Kindergarten teachers' judgments, including a task assignment scale and teachers' predictions, demonstrated a significant relationship with reading. Finally, to judge whether these predictors could identify reading disabilities, the discriminatory power of all predictors was assessed and appeared to be insufficient. Implications for screening purposes are discussed.

  12. Quantifying Cardiometabolic Risk Using Modifiable Non–Self-Reported Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Pencina, Michael J.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Berkman, Lisa F.; Buxton, Orfeu M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Sensitive general cardiometabolic risk assessment tools of modifiable risk factors would be helpful and practical in a range of primary prevention interventions or for preventive health maintenance. Purpose To develop and validate a cumulative general cardiometabolic risk score that focuses on non–self-reported modifiable risk factors such as glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and BMI so as to be sensitive to small changes across a span of major modifiable risk factors, which may not individually cross clinical cut off points for risk categories. Methods We prospectively followed 2,359 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free subjects from the Framingham offspring cohort over a 14–year follow-up. Baseline (fifth offspring examination cycle) included HbA1c and cholesterol measurements. Gender–specific Cox proportional hazards models were considered to evaluate the effects of non–self-reported modifiable risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high–density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, BMI, and HbA1c) on general CVD risk. We constructed 10–year general cardiometabolic risk score functions and evaluated its predictive performance in 2012–2013. Results HbA1c was significantly related to general CVD risk. The proposed cardiometabolic general CVD risk model showed good predictive performance as determined by cross-validated discrimination (male C-index=0.703, 95% CI=0.668, 0.734; female C-index=0.762, 95% CI=0.726, 0.801) and calibration (lack-of-fit χ2=9.05 [p=0.338] and 12.54 [p=0.128] for men and women, respectively). Conclusions This study presents a risk factor algorithm that provides a convenient and informative way to quantify cardiometabolic risk based on modifiable risk factors that can motivate an individual’s commitment to prevention and intervention. PMID:24951039

  13. Quantifying cardiometabolic risk using modifiable non-self-reported risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Berkman, Lisa F; Buxton, Orfeu M

    2014-08-01

    Sensitive general cardiometabolic risk assessment tools of modifiable risk factors would be helpful and practical in a range of primary prevention interventions or for preventive health maintenance. To develop and validate a cumulative general cardiometabolic risk score that focuses on non-self-reported modifiable risk factors such as glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and BMI so as to be sensitive to small changes across a span of major modifiable risk factors, which may not individually cross clinical cut-off points for risk categories. We prospectively followed 2,359 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free subjects from the Framingham offspring cohort over a 14-year follow-up. Baseline (fifth offspring examination cycle) included HbA1c and cholesterol measurements. Gender-specific Cox proportional hazards models were considered to evaluate the effects of non-self-reported modifiable risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, BMI, and HbA1c) on general CVD risk. We constructed 10-year general cardiometabolic risk score functions and evaluated its predictive performance in 2012-2013. HbA1c was significantly related to general CVD risk. The proposed cardiometabolic general CVD risk model showed good predictive performance as determined by cross-validated discrimination (male C-index=0.703, 95% CI=0.668, 0.734; female C-index=0.762, 95% CI=0.726, 0.801) and calibration (lack-of-fit chi-square=9.05 [p=0.338] and 12.54 [p=0.128] for men and women, respectively). This study presents a risk factor algorithm that provides a convenient and informative way to quantify cardiometabolic risk on the basis of modifiable risk factors that can motivate an individual's commitment to prevention and intervention. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Smoldering multiple myeloma risk factors for progression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørrig, Rasmus; Klausen, Tobias W; Salomo, Morten

    2016-01-01

    Several risk scores for disease progression in Smoldering Multiple Myeloma (SMM) patients have been proposed, however, all have been developed using single center registries. To examine risk factors for time to progression (TTP) to Multiple Myeloma (MM) for SMM we analyzed a nationwide population......-based cohort of 321 newly diagnosed SMM patients registered within the Danish Multiple Myeloma Registry between 2005 and 2014. Significant univariable risk factors for TTP were selected for multivariable Cox regression analyses. We found that both an M-protein ≥ 30g/l and immunoparesis significantly influenced......-high risk of transformation to MM. Using only immunoparesis and M-protein ≥ 30g/l, we created a scoring system to identify low, intermediate and high risk SMM. This first population-based study of SMM patients confirms that an M-protein ≥ 30g/l and immunoparesis remain important risk factors for progression...

  15. Risk Factors of Entry in Out-of-Home Care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejrnæs, Mette; Ejrnæs, Niels Morten; Frederiksen, Signe

    2011-01-01

    . The mother’s characteristics are more important risk factors than the corresponding risk factors of the father. The results, the applied method and the epidemiological inspired analysis make an opportunity to discuss the central concepts and methods of calculation of statistical association, risk, prediction......This paper presents the results of research on children’s risk of being placed in out-of-home care. The purpose is: firstly, to compare children placed in out-of-home care with non-placed children, secondly, to estimate the children’s risk of entry into care and finally, to compare the results...... of this study with the results from similar studies. The study is based on register data from the Statistics Denmark. The sample includes all children with Danish citizenship who were born 1981–2003. In order to estimate the risk of being placed in out-of-home care, we use information about the child...

  16. Musculoskeletal Risk Factors in the Young Athlete.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moskwa, C A; Nicholas, J A; Goldberg, B

    1989-11-01

    In brief: Many children and adolescents participate in sports that put them at risk for musculoskeletal injuries. Underlying physical conditions, or risk factors, may predispose them to particular types of sports injuries. Research shows that these risk factors fall into five categories: body type, flexibility, muscle strength, inadequate rehabilitation of a previous injury, and skeletal malalignment and anomalies. Some findings show, for example, that youthful football players who are also heavy have an increased rate of injury, sprains and strains are less common in flexible athletes, and patellar pain or subluxation may be related to a variety of malalignment factors. The authors recommend using a systematic, integrated approach to risk assessment of the athlete, both for detecting risk factors and determining their potential for con tribu ting to a sports injury.

  17. A risk prediction model for xerostomia: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa, Alessandro; Nordio, Francesco; Gohel, Anita

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the prevalence of xerostomia in dental patients and built a xerostomia risk prediction model by incorporating a wide range of risk factors. Socio-demographic data, past medical history, self-reported dry mouth and related symptoms were collected retrospectively from January 2010 to September 2013 for all new dental patients. A logistic regression framework was used to build a risk prediction model for xerostomia. External validation was performed using an independent data set to test the prediction power. A total of 12 682 patients were included in this analysis (54.3%, females). Xerostomia was reported by 12.2% of patients. The proportion of people reporting xerostomia was higher among those who were taking more medications (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.08-1.13) or recreational drug users (OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.1-1.9). Rheumatic diseases (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.88-2.51), psychiatric diseases (OR = 2.34, 95% CI = 2.05-2.68), eating disorders (OR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.55-3.36) and radiotherapy (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.43-2.80) were good predictors of xerostomia. For the test model performance, the ROC-AUC was 0.816 and in the external validation sample, the ROC-AUC was 0.799. The xerostomia risk prediction model had high accuracy and discriminated between high- and low-risk individuals. Clinicians could use this model to identify the classes of medications and systemic diseases associated with xerostomia. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S and The Gerodontology Association. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. HUMAN PROSTATE CANCER RISK FACTORS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostate cancer has the highest prevalence of any non-skin cancer in the human body, with similar likelihood of neoplastic foci found within the prostates of men around the world regardless of diet, occupation, lifestyle, or other factors. Essentially all men with circulating an...

  19. Psychological Risk Factors in Headache

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Robert A.; Houle, Timothy T.; Rhudy, Jamie L.; Norton, Peter J.

    2008-01-01

    Headache is a chronic disease that occurs with varying frequency and results in varying levels of disability. To date, the majority of research and clinical focus has been on the role of biological factors in headache and headache-related disability. However, reliance on a purely biomedical model of headache does not account for all aspects of headache and associated disability. Using a biopsychosocial framework, the current manuscript expands the view of what factors influence headache by considering the role psychological (i.e., cognitive and affective) factors have in the development, course, and consequences of headache. The manuscript initially reviews evidence showing that neural circuits responsible for cognitive–affective phenomena are highly interconnected with the circuitry responsible for headache pain. The manuscript then reviews the influence cognitions (locus of control and self-efficacy) and negative affect (depression, anxiety, and anger) have on the development of headache attacks, perception of headache pain, adherence to prescribed treatment, headache treatment outcome, and headache-related disability. The manuscript concludes with a discussion of the clinical implications of considering psychological factors when treating headache. PMID:17371358

  20. Seismic Risk Perception compared with seismic Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Pessina, Vera; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Peruzza, Laura

    2016-04-01

    The communication of natural hazards and their consequences is one of the more relevant ethical issues faced by scientists. In the last years, social studies have provided evidence that risk communication is strongly influenced by the risk perception of people. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. A theory that offers an integrative approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing. To explain risk perception, it is necessary to consider several perspectives: social, psychological and cultural perspectives and their interactions. This paper presents the results of the CATI survey on seismic risk perception in Italy, conducted by INGV researchers on funding by the DPC. We built a questionnaire to assess seismic risk perception, with a particular attention to compare hazard, vulnerability and exposure perception with the real data of the same factors. The Seismic Risk Perception Questionnaire (SRP-Q) is designed by semantic differential method, using opposite terms on a Likert scale to seven points. The questionnaire allows to obtain the scores of five risk indicators: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, People and Community, Earthquake Phenomenon. The questionnaire was administered by telephone interview (C.A.T.I.) on a statistical sample at national level of over 4,000 people, in the period January -February 2015. Results show that risk perception seems be underestimated for all indicators considered. In particular scores of seismic Vulnerability factor are extremely low compared with house information data of the respondents. Other data collected by the questionnaire regard Earthquake information level, Sources of information, Earthquake occurrence with respect to other natural hazards, participation at risk reduction activities and level of involvement. Research on risk perception aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by

  1. Risk factors of coercion among psychiatric inpatients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Christoffer; Starkopf, Liis; Hastrup, Lene Halling

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: Reducing the use of coercion among patients with mental disorders has long been a political priority. However, risk factors for coercive measures have primarily been investigated in smaller studies. To reduce the use of coercion, it is crucial to identify people at risk which we aim to do...... and having children, reduced the risk of being subjected to coercive measure (all p risk factors associated with coercive measures. Our findings can assist researchers in identifying patients at risk of coercion and thereby help...... measure (21.9%). Clinical characteristics were the foremost predictors of coercion and patients with organic mental disorder had the highest increased risk of being subjected to a coercive measure (OR = 5.56; 95% CI = 5.04, 6.14). The risk of coercion was the highest in the first admission and decreased...

  2. Aerobic fitness related to cardiovascular risk factors in young children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K

    2012-01-01

    Low aerobic fitness (maximum oxygen uptake (VO(2PEAK))) is predictive for poor health in adults. In a cross-sectional study, we assessed if VO(2PEAK) is related to a composite risk factor score for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in 243 children (136 boys and 107 girls) aged 8 to 11 years. VO(2PEAK...

  3. Thrombocytopenia in neonatal sepsis: Incidence, severity and risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ree, Isabelle M. C.; Fustolo-Gunnink, Suzanne F.; Bekker, Vincent; Fijnvandraat, Karin J.; Steggerda, Sylke J.; Lopriore, Enrico

    2017-01-01

    Thrombocytopenia is a frequent problem in neonatal sepsis and is among the most predictive, independent risk factors for sepsis-associated mortality. This study aims to clarify the occurrence, severity and duration of thrombocytopenia in neonatal sepsis. A cohort study was carried out among all

  4. Risk Factors for Suicidality among Clients with Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Robert C.; Cohen, Benjamin N.

    2001-01-01

    Investigates risk factors for current suicidality in clients diagnosed with schizophrenia (N=223). Results indicate that severity of depressive symptoms most strongly correlated with degree of suicidality. Younger age and recent traumatic stress each significantly predicted suicidality independent of depressive symptoms. Suggests that the…

  5. Prevalence and predictive factors of post-traumatic hypopituitarism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klose, M; Juul, A; Poulsgaard, L

    2007-01-01

    To estimate the prevalence and predictive factors of hypopituitarism following traumatic brain injury (TBI).......To estimate the prevalence and predictive factors of hypopituitarism following traumatic brain injury (TBI)....

  6. Childhood Risk Factors for Lifetime Anorexia Nervosa by Age 30 Years in a National Birth Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Dasha E.; Viner, Russell M.

    2009-01-01

    Whether previously identified childhood risk factors for anorexia nervosa (AN) predict self-reported lifetime AN by age 30 is examined. The cohort confirmed four risk and two protective factors out of the 22 suggested risk factors. The study used data from the 1970 British Cohort Study.

  7. Putative Risk Factors in Developmental Dyslexia: A Case-Control Study of Italian Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascheretti, Sara; Marino, Cecilia; Simone, Daniela; Quadrelli, Ermanno; Riva, Valentina; Cellino, Maria Rosaria; Maziade, Michel; Brombin, Chiara; Battaglia, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Although dyslexia runs in families, several putative risk factors that cannot be immediately identified as genetic predict reading disability. Published studies analyzed one or a few risk factors at a time, with relatively inconsistent results. To assess the contribution of several putative risk factors to the development of dyslexia, we conducted…

  8. Epidemiology and risk factors of schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janoutová, Jana; Janácková, Petra; Serý, Omar; Zeman, Tomás; Ambroz, Petr; Kovalová, Martina; Varechová, Katerina; Hosák, Ladislav; Jirík, Vitezslav; Janout, Vladimír

    2016-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder that affects approximately one percent of the general population. The pathogenesis of schizophrenia is influenced by many risk factors, both environmental and genetic. The environmental factors include the date of birth, place of birth and seasonal effects, infectious diseases, complications during pregnancy and delivery, substance abuse and stress. At the present time, in addition to environmental factors, genetic factors are assumed to play a role in the development of the schizophrenia. The heritability of schizo- phrenia is up to 80%. If one parent suffers from the condition, the probability that it will be passed down to the offspring is 13%. If it is present in both parents, the risk is more than 20%. The opinions are varied as to the risk factors affecting the development of schizophrenia. Knowing these factors may greatly contribute to prevention of the condition.

  9. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

  10. Meta-analysis of the predictive factors of postpartum fatigue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badr, Hanan A; Zauszniewski, Jaclene A

    2017-08-01

    Nearly 64% of new mothers are affected by fatigue during the postpartum period, making it the most common problem that a woman faces as she adapts to motherhood. Postpartum fatigue can lead to serious negative effects on the mother's health and the newborn's development and interfere with mother-infant interaction. The aim of this meta-analysis was to identify predictive factors of postpartum fatigue and to document the magnitude of their effects using effect sizes. We used two search engines, PubMed and Google Scholar, to identify studies that met three inclusion criteria: (a) the article was written in English, (b) the article studied the predictive factors of postpartum fatigue, and (c) the article included information about the validity and reliability of the instruments used in the research. Nine articles met these inclusion criteria. The direction and strength of correlation coefficients between predictive factors and postpartum fatigue were examined across the studies to determine their effect sizes. Measurement of predictor variables occurred from 3days to 6months postpartum. Correlations reported between predictive factors and postpartum fatigue were as follows: small effect size (r range =0.10 to 0.29) for education level, age, postpartum hemorrhage, infection, and child care difficulties; medium effect size (r range =0.30 to 0.49) for physiological illness, low ferritin level, low hemoglobin level, sleeping problems, stress and anxiety, and breastfeeding problems; and large effect size (r range =0.50+) for depression. Postpartum fatigue is a common condition that can lead to serious health problems for a new mother and her newborn. Therefore, increased knowledge concerning factors that influence the onset of postpartum fatigue is needed for early identification of new mothers who may be at risk. Appropriate treatments, interventions, information, and support can then be initiated to prevent or minimize the postpartum fatigue. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

  11. Diabetic ketoacidosis: risk factors, mechanisms and management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Diabetic ketoacidosis: risk factors, mechanisms and management strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: a review. ... ketoacidosis is the most common hyperglycaemic emergency in patients with diabetes mellitus, especially type 1 diabetes.

  12. risk factors for abnormal tubal hysterosalpingographic findings

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    So many presumed risk factors for female tubal infertility are seen among. Nigerian women. ... strategies such as health awareness campaigns against unwanted pregnancy, promotion of responsible ..... of CT findings in acute pyogenic pelvic.

  13. Shoulder Dystocia: Incidence and Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouzounian, Joseph G

    2016-12-01

    Shoulder dystocia complicates ∼1% of vaginal births. Although fetal macrosomia and maternal diabetes are risk factors for shoulder dystocia, for the most part its occurrence remains largely unpredictable and unpreventable.

  14. Risk Factors for Developing Atopic Dermatitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    G. Carson, Charlotte

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this thesis was to investigate possible risk factors affecting the development of AD. AD is a frequent disease among children and has a substantial impact on the lives of both the child and its family. A better understanding of the disease would enable better treatment, prevention...... and information to the families involved. Previous risk factor studies have been hampered by an unsuitable study design and/or difficulties in standardization when diagnosing AD, which limit their conclusions. In paper I, we conducted a traditional cross-sectional analysis testing 40 possible risk factors...... exposure to dog was the only environmental exposure that significantly reduced the disease manifestation, suggesting other, yet unknown environmental factors affecting the increasing prevalence of AD in children. Length at birth was shown to be inversely associated with the risk of later developing AD...

  15. Awareness of risk factors for cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lagerlund, Magdalena; Hvidberg, Line; Hajdarevic, Senada

    2015-01-01

    Background: Sweden and Denmark are neighbouring countries with similarities in culture, healthcare, and economics, yet notable differences in cancer statistics. A crucial component of primary prevention is high awareness of risk factors in the general public. We aimed to determine and compare...... awareness of risk factors for cancer between a Danish and a Swedish population sample, and to examine whether there are differences in awareness across age groups. Methods: Data derive from Module 2 of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. Telephone interviews were conducted with 3000 adults...... in Denmark and 3070 in Sweden using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer measure. Data reported here relate to awareness of 13 prompted risk factors for cancer. Prevalence ratios with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated to examine associations between country, age, and awareness of risk factors...

  16. THE RISK FACTORS FOR INITIAL REPRODUCTIVE LOSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Екатерина Игоревна Лебедева

    2017-09-01

    Conclusion. Mixed somatic and gynecological pathology, abnormalities in hemostasis, combination of inherited and acquired thrombogenic risk factors dominates in women with initial reproductive loss, though only 37,3 % such pregnancies have favorable outcome.

  17. Clinical presentation and risk factors of osteoradionecrosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chronopoulos, Aristeidis

    2015-03-26

    alcohol consumption (OR: 5.428, 95% Cl: 1.622-18.171) and dental treatment/ local pathological condition (OR: 0.237, 95% Cl: 0.086-0.655) as significant predictors for stage III necrosis. Tumor size (T) (p<0.001), stage of the tumor (UICC) (p=0.001), concomitant chemotherapy (p<0.001), dental examination and treatment prior to RT (p<0.001) and the different causes of ORN (p=0.03) were statistically significantly associated with the severity of ORN. Conclusion: The aforementioned factors are predictive of ORN severity and can guide its prophylaxis and management. Based on these findings, prospective studies should be conducted in order to better understand risk factors associated with the development, severity and pathophysiology of ORN and improve treatment strategies for this complication of RT.

  18. Clinical presentation and risk factors of osteoradionecrosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chronopoulos, Aristeidis

    2015-01-01

    alcohol consumption (OR: 5.428, 95% Cl: 1.622-18.171) and dental treatment/ local pathological condition (OR: 0.237, 95% Cl: 0.086-0.655) as significant predictors for stage III necrosis. Tumor size (T) (p<0.001), stage of the tumor (UICC) (p=0.001), concomitant chemotherapy (p<0.001), dental examination and treatment prior to RT (p<0.001) and the different causes of ORN (p=0.03) were statistically significantly associated with the severity of ORN. Conclusion: The aforementioned factors are predictive of ORN severity and can guide its prophylaxis and management. Based on these findings, prospective studies should be conducted in order to better understand risk factors associated with the development, severity and pathophysiology of ORN and improve treatment strategies for this complication of RT.

  19. Personal and couple level risk factors: Maternal and paternal parent-child aggression risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Meagan C; Rodriguez, Christina M; Baker, Levi R

    2017-07-01

    Previous literature examining parent-child aggression (PCA) risk has relied heavily upon mothers, limiting our understanding of paternal risk factors. Moreover, the extent to which factors in the couple relationship work in tandem with personal vulnerabilities to impact PCA risk is unclear. The current study examined whether personal stress and distress predicted PCA risk (child abuse potential, over-reactive discipline style, harsh discipline practices) for fathers as well as mothers and whether couple functioning mediated versus moderated the relation between personal stress and PCA risk in a sample of 81 couples. Additionally, the potential for risk factors in one partner to cross over and affect their partner's PCA risk was considered. Findings indicated higher personal stress predicted elevated maternal and paternal PCA risk. Better couple functioning did not moderate this relationship but partially mediated stress and PCA risk for both mothers and fathers. In addition, maternal stress evidenced a cross-over effect, wherein mothers' personal stress linked to fathers' couple functioning. Findings support the role of stress and couple functioning in maternal and paternal PCA risk, including potential cross-over effects that warrant further inquiry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Preventing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors through Aerobic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper focused on the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk factors, through aerobic exercises. The central argument here is that through exercise there is the tendency for increased strength of the heart muscles. When this is the case, what follows is a reduction in body weight and ultimately less risk on the ...

  1. Risk factors in prevention of drug dependences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orosova, Ol'ga; Gajdosova, Beata; Madarasova-Geckova, Andrea; Van Dijk, Jitse P.

    2007-01-01

    The study presents the state-of-art of knowledge of risk factors of drug use as a form of risk behaviour in adolescents in individual, interpersonal, and environmental domain (family, school, society). The attention is paid to general deviation syndrome and to the construct of general tendency to

  2. Risk factors for QTc interval prolongation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemskerk, Charlotte P.M.; Pereboom, Marieke; van Stralen, Karlijn; Berger, Florine A.; van den Bemt, Patricia M.L.A.; Kuijper, Aaf F.M.; van der Hoeven, Ruud T M; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K.; Becker, Matthijs L

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: Prolongation of the QTc interval may result in Torsade de Pointes, a ventricular arrhythmia. Numerous risk factors for QTc interval prolongation have been described, including the use of certain drugs. In clinical practice, there is much debate about the management of the risks involved. In

  3. Osteoporosis Risk Factors in Eighth Grade Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lysen, Victoria C.; Walker, Robert

    1997-01-01

    Presents findings from food frequency questionnaires and surveys of 138 Midwestern eighth-grade student-parent pairs. The study examined the incidence of modifiable and nonmodifiable osteoporosis risk factors and compared gender differences. Data analysis indicated that many adolescents possessed several modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors…

  4. A Bayesian network model for predicting type 2 diabetes risk based on electronic health records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jiang; Liu, Yan; Zeng, Xu; Zhang, Wu; Mei, Zhen

    2017-07-01

    An extensive, in-depth study of diabetes risk factors (DBRF) is of crucial importance to prevent (or reduce) the chance of suffering from type 2 diabetes (T2D). Accumulation of electronic health records (EHRs) makes it possible to build nonlinear relationships between risk factors and diabetes. However, the current DBRF researches mainly focus on qualitative analyses, and the inconformity of physical examination items makes the risk factors likely to be lost, which drives us to study the novel machine learning approach for risk model development. In this paper, we use Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the relationship between physical examination information and T2D, and to quantify the link between risk factors and T2D. Furthermore, with the quantitative analyses of DBRF, we adopt EHR and propose a machine learning approach based on BNs to predict the risk of T2D. The experiments demonstrate that our approach can lead to better predictive performance than the classical risk model.

  5. Risk Factors for Homelessness Among US Veterans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Jack; Rosenheck, Robert A.

    2015-01-01

    Homelessness among US veterans has been a focus of research for over 3 decades. Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, this is the first systematic review to summarize research on risk factors for homelessness among US veterans and to evaluate the evidence for these risk factors. Thirty-one studies published from 1987 to 2014 were divided into 3 categories: more rigorous studies, less rigorous studies, and studies comparing homeless veterans with homeless nonveterans. The strongest and most consistent risk factors were substance use disorders and mental illness, followed by low income and other income-related factors. There was some evidence that social isolation, adverse childhood experiences, and past incarceration were also important risk factors. Veterans, especially those who served since the advent of the all-volunteer force, were at greater risk for homelessness than other adults. Homeless veterans were generally older, better educated, and more likely to be male, married/have been married, and to have health insurance coverage than other homeless adults. More studies simultaneously addressing premilitary, military, and postmilitary risk factors for veteran homelessness are needed. This review identifies substance use disorders, mental illness, and low income as targets for policies and programs in efforts to end homelessness among veterans. PMID:25595171

  6. Risk factors predisposing to congenital heart defects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ul Haq, Faheem; Jalil, Fatima; Hashmi, Saman; Jumani, Maliha Iqbal; Imdad, Aamer; Jabeen, Mehnaz; Hashmi, Javad Tauseef; Irfan, Furqan Bin; Imran, Muhammad; Atiq, Mehnaz

    2011-01-01

    Congenital heart disease (CHD) is associated with multiple risk factors, consanguinity may be one such significant factor. The role of consanguinity in the etiology of CHD is supported by inbreeding studies, which demonstrate an autosomal recessive pattern of inheritance of some congenital heart defects. This study was done to find out the risk factors for CHD. A case-control study was done on pediatric patients at a tertiary care hospital, Aga Khan University Hospital, located in Karachi, Pakistan. A total of 500 patients, 250 cases and 250 controls were included in the study. Amongst the 250 cases (i.e. those diagnosed with CHD), 122 patients (48.8%) were born of consanguineous marriages while in the controls (i.e. non-CHD) only 72 patients (28.9%) showed a consanguinity amongst parents. On multivariate analysis, consanguinity emerged as an independent risk factor for CHD; adjusted odds ratio 2.59 (95% C. I. 1.73 - 3.87). Other risk factors included low birth weight, maternal co-morbidities, family history of CHD and first born child. On the other hand, medications used by the mother during the index pregnancy, maternal age and gender of the child did not significantly increase the risk of developing CHD. Analyses of our results show that parental consanguinity, family history of CHD, maternal co-morbidities, first born child and low birth weight are independent risk factors for CHD

  7. Testing the Predictive Validity of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Hyesil; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

    2018-03-01

    Cumulative data on patient fall risk have been compiled in electronic medical records systems, and it is possible to test the validity of fall-risk assessment tools using these data between the times of admission and occurrence of a fall. The Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scores assessed during three time points of hospital stays were extracted and used for testing the predictive validity: (a) upon admission, (b) when the maximum fall-risk score from admission to falling or discharge, and (c) immediately before falling or discharge. Predictive validity was examined using seven predictive indicators. In addition, logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that significantly affect the occurrence of a fall. Among the different time points, the maximum fall-risk score assessed between admission and falling or discharge showed the best predictive performance. Confusion or disorientation and having a poor ability to rise from a sitting position were significant risk factors for a fall.

  8. Atrial fibrillation and bleeding complication - risk factors and risk marker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breithardt, G.; Ravens, U.; Kirchhof, P.; van Gelder, I. C.

    2012-01-01

    The development of atrial fibrillation (AF) is closely linked to risk factors like hypertension and heart failure, diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction and valvular heart disease. These factors partly overlap with those which determine the progression of atrial fibrillation and the incidence of

  9. Modifiable risk factors for schizophrenia and autism--shared risk factors impacting on brain development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlyn, Jess; Duhig, Michael; McGrath, John; Scott, James

    2013-05-01

    Schizophrenia and autism are two poorly understood clinical syndromes that differ in age of onset and clinical profile. However, recent genetic and epidemiological research suggests that these two neurodevelopmental disorders share certain risk factors. The aims of this review are to describe modifiable risk factors that have been identified in both disorders, and, where available, collate salient systematic reviews and meta-analyses that have examined shared risk factors. Based on searches of Medline, Embase and PsycINFO, inspection of review articles and expert opinion, we first compiled a set of candidate modifiable risk factors associated with autism. Where available, we next collated systematic-reviews (with or without meta-analyses) related to modifiable risk factors associated with both autism and schizophrenia. We identified three modifiable risk factors that have been examined in systematic reviews for both autism and schizophrenia. Advanced paternal age was reported as a risk factor for schizophrenia in a single meta-analysis and as a risk factor in two meta-analyses for autism. With respect to pregnancy and birth complications, for autism one meta-analysis identified maternal diabetes and bleeding during pregnancy as risks factors for autism whilst a meta-analysis of eight studies identified obstetric complications as a risk factor for schizophrenia. Migrant status was identified as a risk factor for both autism and schizophrenia. Two separate meta-analyses were identified for each disorder. Despite distinct clinical phenotypes, the evidence suggests that at least some non-genetic risk factors are shared between these two syndromes. In particular, exposure to drugs, nutritional excesses or deficiencies and infectious agents lend themselves to public health interventions. Studies are now needed to quantify any increase in risk of either autism or schizophrenia that is associated with these modifiable environmental factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc

  10. Risk factors in neuroleptic malignant syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Vinay; Magon, Rakesh; Mishra, B P; Sidhu, G B S; Mahajan, Ranjiv

    2003-01-01

    Neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS) is an uncommon but potentially serious idiosyncratic response to neuroleptic antipsychotics. It usually affects young males, but the risk has been seen to increase with certain factors including the administration practices of antipsychotic neuroleptics in these individuals. Even though no predictors for NMS are yet known, this article highlights the findings on certain risk factors as seen from a series of fifteen patients who developed NMS. Cautious use of neuroleptics in those at risk, early recognition and institution of immediate management is important.

  11. [Encopresis--predictive factors and outcome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehler-Wex, Claudia; Scheuerpflug, Peter; Peschke, Nicole; Roth, Michael; Reitzle, Karl; Warnke, Andreas

    2005-10-01

    comparison of diagnostic, clinical and therapeutic features and their predictive value for the outcome of encopresis in children and adolescents. 85 children and adolescents (aged 9.6 +/- 3.2 years) with severe encopresis (ICD 10: F98.1) were investigated during inpatient treatment and 35 of them again 5.5 +/- 1.8 years later. Mentally retarded patients were excluded. Inpatient therapy consisted of treating constipation and/or stool regulation by means of laxatives, behavioural approaches, and the specific therapy of comorbid psychiatric disorders. During inpatient treatment 22% of the patients experienced total remission, 8% an unchanged persistence of symptoms. Of the 35 patients studied at follow-up 5.5 years later, 40% were symptom-free. As main result, prognostic outcome depended significantly on sufficient treatment of obstipation. Another important factor was the specific therapeutic approach to psychiatric comorbidity, especially to ADHD. The outcome for patients with comorbid ICD 10: F43 was significantly better than for the other patients. Those who were symptom-free at discharge had significantly better long-term outcomes. Decisive to the success of encopresis treatment were the stool regulation and the specific therapy of associated psychiatric illnesses, in particular of ADHD. Inpatient treatment revealed significantly better long-term outcomes where total remission had been achieved by the time of discharge from hospital.

  12. Vocal fold hemorrhage: factors predicting recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennon, Christen J; Murry, Thomas; Sulica, Lucian

    2014-01-01

    Vocal fold hemorrhage is an acute phonotraumatic injury treated with voice rest; recurrence is a generally accepted indication for surgical intervention. This study aims to identify factors predictive of recurrence based on outcomes of a large clinical series. Retrospective cohort. Retrospective review of cases of vocal fold hemorrhage presenting to a university laryngology service. Demographic information was compiled. Videostroboscopic exams were evaluated for hemorrhage extent, presence of varix, mucosal lesion, and/or vocal fold paresis. Vocal fold hemorrhage recurrence was the main outcome measure. Follow-up telephone survey was used to complement clinical data. Forty-seven instances of vocal fold hemorrhage were evaluated (25M:22F; 32 professional voice users). Twelve of the 47 (26%) patients experienced recurrence. Only the presence of varix demonstrated significant association with recurrence (P = 0.0089) on multivariate logistic regression. Vocal fold hemorrhage recurred in approximately 26% of patients. Varix was a predictor of recurrence, with 48% of those with varix experiencing recurrence. Monitoring, behavioral management and/or surgical intervention may be indicated to treat patients with such characteristics. © 2013 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  13. Epidemiology and risk factors of schizophrenia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Janoutová, J.; Janáčková, P.; Šerý, Omar; Zeman, T.; Ambrož, P.; Kovalová, M.; Vařechová, K.; Hosák, L.; Jiřík, V.; Janout, V.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 1 (2016), s. 1-8 ISSN 0172-780X R&D Projects: GA MZd NT14504 Institutional support: RVO:67985904 Keywords : schizophrenia * risk factors * epidemiology Subject RIV: FQ - Public Health Care, Social Medicine Impact factor: 0.918, year: 2016

  14. Osteonecrosis. Part 1. Risk factors and pathogenesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina Valeriyevna Ilyinykh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers different risk factors for osteonecrosis (ON and some aspects of its pathogenesis: impairments in the differentiation of stromal cells, the vascular provision of intraand extravasal genesis, the quality of proper bone tissue due to generalized or local osteoporosis, intravascular coagulation factors contributing to microthrombogenesis. The basic types of ON are identified.

  15. Cardiovascular risk factors and collateral artery formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Groot, D; Pasterkamp, G; Hoefer, I E

    2009-12-01

    Arterial lumen narrowing and vascular occlusion is the actual cause of morbidity and mortality in atherosclerotic disease. Collateral artery formation (arteriogenesis) refers to an active remodelling of non-functional vascular anastomoses to functional collateral arteries, capable to bypass the site of obstruction and preserve the tissue that is jeopardized by ischaemia. Hemodynamic forces such as shear stress and wall stress play a pivotal role in collateral artery formation, accompanied by the expression of various cytokines and invasion of circulating leucocytes. Arteriogenesis hence represents an important compensatory mechanism for atherosclerotic vessel occlusion. As arteriogenesis mostly occurs when lumen narrowing by atherosclerotic plaques takes place, presence of cardiovascular risk factors (e.g. hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes) is highly likely. Risk factors for atherosclerotic disease affect collateral artery growth directly and indirectly by altering hemodynamic forces or influencing cellular function and proliferation. Adequate collateralization varies significantly among atherosclerotic patients, some profit from the presence of extensive collateral networks, whereas others do not. Cardiovascular risk factors could increase the risk of adverse cardiovascular events in certain patients because of the reduced protection through an alternative vascular network. Likewise, drugs primarily thought to control cardiovascular risk factors might contribute or counteract collateral artery growth. This review summarizes current knowledge on the influence of cardiovascular risk factors and the effects of cardiovascular medication on the development of collateral vessels in experimental and clinical studies.

  16. Prevalence of health risk factors among fishermen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frantzeskou, Elpida; Jensen, Olaf; Linos, Athena

    2014-01-01

    Background Studies have shown that fishermen have a higher mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer and accidents. The majority of cardiovascular disease is caused by external risk factors such as the diet, tobacco, alcohol and lack of physical activity. The purpose of this paper...... was to review the available information on the prevalence of these preventable risk factors in order to strengthen the preventive strategies. Methods A search for the last decade was done via Medline, Google and Google Scholar with the keywords "diet, tobacco, alcohol, physical exercise, overweight....... Of the Danish fishermen 25%-, 34% and 37% were obese in the 18-24, 25-44 and 45-64 years age groups. Conclusion Health risk factors among fishermen need to be highlighted and further investigated as they represent occupational risks of major impact to chronic diseases prevalence with projections to quality...

  17. Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants : risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.

    Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on

  18. Cardiovascular disease risk factors and cognitive impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, David T; Fillit, Howard

    2006-04-15

    The role of cardiovascular disease risk factors in the occurrence and progression of cognitive impairment has been the subject of a significant number of publications but has not achieved widespread recognition among many physicians and educated laymen. It is apparent that the active treatment of certain of these cardiovascular disease risk factors is accompanied by a reduced risk for cognitive impairment. Patients with hypertension who are treated experience fewer cardiovascular disease events as well as less cognitive impairment than similar untreated patients. Patients who exercise may present with less cognitive impairment, and obesity may increase the risk for cognitive impairment. Lipid abnormalities and genetic markers are associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease and cognitive impairment. Autopsy studies have demonstrated a correlation between elevated levels of cholesterol and amyloid deposition in the brain. Research has demonstrated a relation between atherosclerotic obstruction lesions in the circle of Willis and dementia. Diabetes mellitus is associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease and cognitive impairment. A number of nonpharmacologic factors have a role in reducing the risk for cognitive impairment. Antioxidants, fatty acids, and micronutrients may have a role, and diets rich in fruits and vegetables and other dietary approaches may improve the outlook for patients considered at risk for cognitive impairment.

  19. [Environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilain, J; Galliot, A-M; Durand-Roger, J; Leboyer, M; Llorca, P-M; Schürhoff, F; Szöke, A

    2013-02-01

    Evidence of variations in schizophrenia incidence rates has been found in genetically homogenous populations, depending on changes within time or space of certain environmental characteristics. The consideration of the impact of environmental risk factors in etiopathogenic studies has put the environment in the forefront of research regarding psychotic illnesses. Various environmental factors such as urbanicity, migration, cannabis, childhood traumas, infectious agents, obstetrical complications and psychosocial factors have been associated with the risk of developing schizophrenia. These risk factors can be biological, physical, psychological as well as social and may operate at different times in an individual's life (fetal period, childhood, adolescence and early adulthood). Whilst some of these factors act on an individual level, others act on a populational level, modulating the individual risk. These factors can have a direct action on the development of schizophrenia, or on the other hand act as markers for directly implicated factors that have not yet been identified. This article summarizes the current knowledge on this subject. An extensive literature search was conducted via the search engine Pubmed. Eight risk factors were selected and developed in the following paper: urbanicity (or living in an urban area), cannabis, migration (and ethnic density), obstetrical complications, seasonality of birth, infectious agents (and inflammatory responses), socio-demographic factors and childhood traumas. For each of these factors, we provide information on the importance of the risk, the vulnerability period, hypotheses made on the possible mechanisms behind the factors and the level of proof the current research offers (good, medium, or insufficient) according to the amount, type, quality and concordance of the studies at hand. Some factors, such as cannabis, are "unique" in their influence on the development of schizophrenia since it labels only one risk factor

  20. [Predictive factors of the outcomes of prenatal hydronephrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragagnini, Paolo; Estors, Blanca; Delgado, Reyes; Rihuete, Miguel Ángel; Gracia, Jesús

    2016-12-01

    To determine prenatal and postnatal independent predictors of poor outcome, spontaneous resolution, or the need for surgery in patients with prenatal hydronephrosis. We performed a retrospective study of patients with prenatal hydronephrosis. The renal pelvis APD was measured in the third prenatal trimester ultrasound, as well as in the first and second postnatal ultrasound. Other variables were taken into account, both prenatal and postnatal. For statistical analysis we used Student t-test, chi-square test, survival analysis, logrank test, and ROC curves. We included 218 patients with 293 renal units (RU). Of these, 147/293 (50.2%) RU were operated. 76/293 (25.9%) RU had spontaneous resolution and other 76/293 (25.9%) RU had poor outcome. As risk factors for surgery we found low birth weight (OR 3.84; 95% CI 1.24-11.84), prematurity (OR 4.17; 95% CI 1.35-12.88), duplication (OR 4.99; 95% CI 2.21-11.23) and the presence of nephrourological underlying pathology (OR 53.54; 95% CI 26.23-109.27). For the non-spontaneous resolution, we found as risk factors the alterations of amniotic fluid volume (RR 1.46; 95% CI 1.33-1.60) as well as the underlying nephrourological pathology and duplication. In the poor outcome, we found as risk factors the alterations of amniotic fluid volume (OR 4.54; 95% CI 1.31-15.62), the presence of nephrourological pathology (OR 4.81 95% CI 2.60-8.89) and RU that was operated (OR 4.23, 95% CI 2.35-7.60). The APD of the renal pelvis in all three ultrasounds were reliable for surgery prediction (area under the curve 0.65; 0.82; 0.71) or spontaneous resolution (area under the curve 0.80; 0.91; 0.80), only the first postnatal ultrasound has predictive value in the poor outcome (area under the curve 0.73). The higher sensitivity and specificity of the APD as predictor value was on the first postnatal ultrasound, 14.60 mm for surgery; 11.35 mm for spontaneous resolution and 15.50 mm for poor outcome. The higher APD in the renal pelvis in any of the

  1. Predictive analytics for supply chain collaboration, risk management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    management, and (2) supply chain risk management predicted financial .... overhead costs, delivery of ever-increasing customer value, flexibility with superior ... risk exposure, relationship longevity, trust and communication are considered as.

  2. Cardiovascular risk factors and disease in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Sharon K

    2015-05-01

    Coronary artery disease and stroke predominantly affect older women as opposed to younger women, but the risk factors that contribute to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk often start in young women. Young women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), with migraine, and who use oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) have short-term increases in thrombotic complications that can result in coronary events or stroke. Attention should be focused on risk reduction in women of all ages. Screening for and discussing diabetes, hypertension, obesity, smoking, migraine, PCOS, and pregnancy complication history and discussing the pros and cons of hormone and statin medications are part of reducing cardiovascular risk for women. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Utilizing Genomics through Family Health History with the Theory of Planned Behavior: Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes Risk Factors and Preventive Behavior in an African American Population in Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seaborn, Cynthia; Suther, Sandra; Lee, Torhonda; Kiros, Gebre-Egziabher; Becker, Alan; Campbell, Ellen; Collins-Robinson, Jackie

    2016-01-01

    African Americans are disproportionately affected by type 2 diabetes. The purpose of this study was to assess to what extent African Americans' knowledge and awareness of family health history and related risk factors for developing type 2 diabetes influence their likelihood of adopting a preventive behavior. This study employed an anonymous pencil-and-paper, self-administered survey consisting of two sections. Section 1 was a modified version of the US Surgeon General's Family Health History Initiative and the American Diabetes Association Diabetes Risk Factor Survey. Section 2 of the survey was based on the constructs of the theory of planned behavior. Over 394 African American participants completed the survey. 'Perceived behavioral control' was the strongest predictor of 'likelihood of adopting preventive behavior'. Participants were aware of their family history as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes, but it was not a significant predictor of behavior modifications based on that knowledge. The lack of perceived risk in this population shows the importance of not only knowing one's risk factors but translating those risk factors to a more personalized form that fits into the current lifestyle of the individual in a meaningful way. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

  5. Risk factors for recurrent spontaneous epistaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrich, Victor; Brozek, Annabelle; Boyle, Timothy R; Chyou, Po-Huang; Yale, Steven H

    2014-12-01

    To identify risk factors associated with spontaneous recurrent epistaxis. This was a retrospective cohort study assessing patients in the Marshfield Clinic system diagnosed as having epistaxis between January 1, 1991, and January 1, 2011. There were 461 cases with at least 2 episodes of spontaneous epistaxis within 3 years and 912 controls with only 1 episode in the same time frame. More than 50 potential risk factors were investigated, including demographic features, substance use, nasal anatomical abnormalities, nasal infectious and inflammatory processes, medical comorbidities, medications, and laboratory values. A Cox proportional hazards regression modeling approach was used to calculate hazard ratios of epistaxis recurrence. Traditional risk factors for epistaxis, including nasal perforation, nasal septum deviation, rhinitis, sinusitis, and upper respiratory tract infection, did not increase the risk of recurrence. Significant risk factors for recurrent epistaxis included congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and a history of anemia. Warfarin use increased the risk of recurrence, independent of international normalized ratio. Aspirin and clopidogrel were not found to increase the risk of recurrence. Few major adverse cardiovascular events were observed within 30 days of the first epistaxis event. Congestive heart failure is an underappreciated risk factor for recurrent epistaxis. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus may induce atherosclerotic changes in the nasal vessels, making them friable and more at risk for bleeding. Patients with recurrent epistaxis may also be more susceptible to developing anemia. Physicians should promote antiplatelet and antithrombotic medication adherence despite an increased propensity for recurrent epistaxis to prevent major adverse cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2014 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. External risk factors affecting construction costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mubarak, Husin, Saiful; Oktaviati, Mutia

    2017-11-01

    Some risk factors can have impacts on the cost, time, and performance. Results of previous studies indicated that the external conditions are among the factors which give effect to the contractor in the completion of the project. The analysis in the study carried out by considering the conditions of the project in the last 15 years in Aceh province, divided into military conflict phase (2000-2004), post tsunami disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction phase (2005-2009), and post-rehabilitation and reconstruction phase (2010-present). This study intended to analyze the impact of external risk factors, primarily related to the impact on project costs and to investigate the influence of the risk factors and construction phases impacted the project cost. Data was collected by using a questionnaire distributed in 15 large companies qualification contractors in Aceh province. Factors analyzed consisted of socio-political, government policies, natural disasters, and monetary conditions. Data were analyzed using statistical application of severity index to measure the level of risk impact. The analysis results presented the tendency of impact on cost can generally be classified as low. There is only one variable classified as high-impact, variable `fuel price increases', which appear on the military conflict and post tsunami disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction periods. The risk impact on costs from the factors and variables classified with high intensity needs a serious attention, especially when the high level impact is followed by the high frequency of occurrences.

  7. [Identification of risk factors for congenital malformations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canals C, Andrea; Cavada C, Gabriel; Nazer H, Julio

    2014-11-01

    The relative importance of congenital malformations as a cause of death in the first year of life is increasing along with the control of preventable causes of perinatal mortality. To identify risk factors for congenital malformations. Retrospective case-control study of births registered in the database of The Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations (ECLAMC), in the period 2001-2010. Birth weight and gestational age were significantly lower in cases than controls, behaving as risk factors and associated with a greater severity of congenital malformations. The risk and severity of congenital malformations increased along with mother's age. Fetal growth retardation, a history of congenital malformations in the family, physical factors and acute illnesses of the mother in the first trimester of pregnancy were also significant risk factors for congenital malformations and their severity. The educational level of the mother was a protective factor for congenital malformations and their severity. Variables previously identified as risk factors for congenital malformations, were significantly related with the occurrence of congenital malformations and their severity.

  8. Biological risk factors for deep vein trombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vayá, Amparo; Mira, Yolanda; Martínez, Marcial; Villa, Piedad; Ferrando, Fernando; Estellés, Amparo; Corella, Dolores; Aznar, Justo

    2002-01-01

    Hypercoagulable states due either to inherited or acquired thrombotic risk factors are only present in approximately half of cases of DVT, but the causes in the other half, remain unknown. The importance of biological risk factors such as hyperlipidemia, hypofibrinolysis and hemorheological alterations in the pathogenesis of DVT has not been well established. In order to ascertain whether the above mentioned biological factors are associated with DVT and could constitute independent risk factors, we carried out a case-control study in 109 first DVT patients in whom inherited or acquired thrombophilic risk factors had been ruled out and 121 healthy controls age (42+/-15 years) and sex matched. From all the biological variables analyzed (cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, fibrinogen, erythrocyte aggregation, hematocrit, plasma viscosity and PAI-1) only fibrinogen concentration reached a statistically significant difference on the comparison of means (290+/-73 mg/dl in cases vs 268+/-58 mg/dl in controls, p220 mg/dl, hematocrit >45% and fibrinogen >300 mg/dl was higher in cases than in controls: 38% vs 22%; p30 ng/ml, 37% vs 25% was borderline significant; p=0.055. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that cholesterolemia >220 mg/dl and fibrinogen >300 mg/dl constitute independent predictors of venous thrombotic risk. The adjusted OR's were 2.03 (95% CI; 1.12-3.70) for cholesterolemia and 1.94 (95% CI; 1.07-3.55) for fibrinogen. When these two variables combined DVT risk rose about fourfold (3.96; p<0.05). Our results suggest that hypercholesterolemia and hyperfibrinogenemia should be added to the list of known DVT risk factors and we recommend adopting measures to decrease these variables in the population with a high risk of DVT.

  9. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (CoP) motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS); and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM) CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ) were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24), prospective all fallers (42), prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple), and prospective non-fallers (47). Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity—0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity—2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity) and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for older

  10. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D; Kofman, Jonathan; McIlroy, William E

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (CoP) motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS); and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM) CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ) were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24), prospective all fallers (42), prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple), and prospective non-fallers (47). Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity-0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity-2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity) and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for older

  11. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Howcroft

    Full Text Available Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP and medial-lateral (ML center of pressure (CoP motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS; and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24, prospective all fallers (42, prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple, and prospective non-fallers (47. Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity-0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity-2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for

  12. Investigating Contingency Risk Factors of Brain Tumor in Children and Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Nazemi

    2014-12-01

    Conclusion: According to research results, several preventable and predictable factors are linked to pediatric brain tumors. Therefore, children prone to brain tumors are recommended to be examined and screened for these risk factors.

  13. Risk factors of non-specific spinal pain in childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szita, Julia; Boja, Sara; Szilagyi, Agnes; Somhegyi, Annamaria; Varga, Peter Pal; Lazary, Aron

    2018-05-01

    Non-specific spinal pain can occur at all ages and current evidence suggests that pediatric non-specific spinal pain is predictive for adult spinal conditions. A 5-year long, prospective cohort study was conducted to identify the lifestyle and environmental factors leading to non-specific spinal pain in childhood. Data were collected from school children aged 7-16 years, who were randomly selected from three different geographic regions in Hungary. The risk factors were measured with a newly developed patient-reported questionnaire (PRQ). The quality of the instrument was assessed by the reliability with the test-retest method. Test (N = 952) and validity (N = 897) datasets were randomly formed. Risk factors were identified with uni- and multivariate logistic regression models and the predictive performance of the final model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method. The final model was built up by seven risk factors for spinal pain for days; age > 12 years, learning or watching TV for more than 2 h/day, uncomfortable school-desk, sleeping problems, general discomfort and positive familiar medical history (χ 2  = 101.07; df = 8; p < 0.001). The probabilistic performance was confirmed with ROC analysis on the test and validation cohorts (AUC = 0.76; 0.71). A simplified risk scoring system showed increasing possibility for non-specific spinal pain depending on the number of the identified risk factors (χ 2  = 65.0; df = 4; p < 0.001). Seven significant risk factors of non-specific spinal pain in childhood were identified using the new, easy to use and reliable PRQ which makes it possible to stratify the children according to their individual risk. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.

  14. Industrial risk factors for colorectal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lashner, B.A.; Epstein, S.S.

    1990-01-01

    Colorectal cancer is the second most common malignancy in the United States, and its incidence rates have sharply increased recently, especially in males. Industrial exposures, both occupational and environmental, are important colorectal cancer risk factors that are generally unrecognized by clinicians. Migration studies have documented that colorectal cancer is strongly associated with environmental risk factors. The causal role of occupational exposures is evidenced by a substantial literature associating specific work practices with increased colorectal cancer risks. Industrially related environmental exposures, including polluted drinking water and ionizing radiation, have also been associated with excess risks. Currently, there is a tendency to attribute colorectal cancer, largely or exclusively, to dietary and other lifestyle factors, thus neglecting these industrially related effects. Concerted efforts are needed to recognize the causal role of industrial risk factors and to encourage government and industry to reduce carcinogenic exposures. Furthermore, cost-effective screening programs for high-risk population groups are critically needed to further reduce deaths from colorectal cancer. 143 references

  15. Threat and error management for anesthesiologists: a predictive risk taxonomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruskin, Keith J.; Stiegler, Marjorie P.; Park, Kellie; Guffey, Patrick; Kurup, Viji; Chidester, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Purpose of review Patient care in the operating room is a dynamic interaction that requires cooperation among team members and reliance upon sophisticated technology. Most human factors research in medicine has been focused on analyzing errors and implementing system-wide changes to prevent them from recurring. We describe a set of techniques that has been used successfully by the aviation industry to analyze errors and adverse events and explain how these techniques can be applied to patient care. Recent findings Threat and error management (TEM) describes adverse events in terms of risks or challenges that are present in an operational environment (threats) and the actions of specific personnel that potentiate or exacerbate those threats (errors). TEM is a technique widely used in aviation, and can be adapted for the use in a medical setting to predict high-risk situations and prevent errors in the perioperative period. A threat taxonomy is a novel way of classifying and predicting the hazards that can occur in the operating room. TEM can be used to identify error-producing situations, analyze adverse events, and design training scenarios. Summary TEM offers a multifaceted strategy for identifying hazards, reducing errors, and training physicians. A threat taxonomy may improve analysis of critical events with subsequent development of specific interventions, and may also serve as a framework for training programs in risk mitigation. PMID:24113268

  16. Factors predicting labor induction success: a critical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crane, Joan M G

    2006-09-01

    Because of the risk of failed induction of labor, a variety of maternal and fetal factors as well as screening tests have been suggested to predict labor induction success. Certain characteristics of the woman (including parity, age, weight, height and body mass index), and of the fetus (including birth weight and gestational age) are associated with the success of labor induction; with parous, young women who are taller and lower weight having a higher rate of induction success. Fetuses with a lower birth weight or increased gestational age are also associated with increased induction success. The condition of the cervix at the start of induction is an important predictor, with the modified Bishop score being a widely used scoring system. The most important element of the Bishop score is dilatation. Other predictors, including transvaginal ultrasound (TVUS) and biochemical markers [including fetal fibronectin (fFN)] have been suggested. Meta-analyses of studies identified from MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE and published from 1990 to October 2005 were performed evaluating the use of TVUS and fFN in predicting labor induction success in women at term with singleton gestations. Both TVUS and Bishop score predicted successful induction [likelihood ratio (LR)=1.82, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.51-2.20 and LR=2.10, 95%CI=1.67-2.64, respectively]. As well, fFN and Bishop score predicted successful induction (LR=1.49, 95%CI=1.20-1.85, and LR=2.62, 95%CI=1.88-3.64, respectively). Although TVUS and fFN predicted successful labor induction, neither has been shown to be superior to Bishop score. Further research is needed to evaluate these potential predictors and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), another potential biochemical marker.

  17. Risk and protective factors for suicidal ideation among Taiwanese adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ruey-Hsia; Lai, Hsiao-Jung; Hsu, Hsiu-Yueh; Hsu, Min-Tao

    2011-01-01

    : Suicide is the ninth leading cause of death in adolescents aged 15-19 years in Taiwan. Suicidal ideation is an important predictor of committing suicide among adolescents. : The aim of this study was to examine the important risk factors, the protective factors, and the role of protective factors on the relationship of risk factors to suicidal ideation among Taiwanese adolescents aged 15-19 years. : By adopting a cross-sectional study, senior high school students (n = 577) aged 15-19 years in southern Taiwan were recruited for this study. An anonymous self-reported questionnaire was used to collect demographic characteristics, risk factors, protective factors, and suicidal ideation of the sample. Hierarchical logistic regression was used to identify the important risk and protective factors and the interaction between risk and protective factors on suicidal ideation. : Nearly 18% (n = 101) of the participants reported having suicidal ideation during the past 12 months. Gender (female; odds ratio [OR] = 4.23), life stress (OR = 1.03), depression (OR = 3.44), peer suicidal ideation (OR = 4.15), and bullying victimization (OR = 1.81) were important risk factors of suicidal ideation among the targeted sample. In addition, self-esteem (OR = 0.92) and emotional adaptation (OR = 0.88) were important protective factors of suicidal ideation. Self-esteem and emotional adaptation were not used to moderate the negative effects of life stress, depression, perceived peer suicidal ideation, and bullying victimization on suicidal ideation. The final model explained 40.6% of the total variance in suicidal ideation and correctly predicted 86.1% of participants with suicidal ideation. : Suicidal ideation prevention programs should be targeted to female adolescents. School-based efforts that provide adolescents with self-esteem enhancement, emotional regulation skills training, positive peer norms for life, coping skills for managing stress and depression, and antibullying programs

  18. Psychosocial risk factors and heart failure hospitalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rod, Naja Hulvej; Andersen, Ingelise; Prescott, Eva

    2011-01-01

    Prospective studies on the role of psychosocial factors in heart failure development are virtually nonexistent. The authors aimed to address the effect of psychosocial factors on the risk of heart failure hospitalization in men and women free of cardiovascular disease. In 1991-1993, the 8......-fourth of the population reported some degree of vital exhaustion. The vital exhaustion score was associated with a higher risk of heart failure in a dose-response manner (P risk of heart failure in both men (hazard ratio = 1.93, 95% confidence...... in the population, even a modestly higher risk of heart failure associated with vital exhaustion may be of importance in the planning of future preventive strategies for heart failure....

  19. EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS IN ACUTE STROKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putta

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cerebrovascular disease is the third most common cause of death in the developed world after cancer and ischemic heart disease. In India, community surveys have shown a crude prevalence rate of 200 per 100000 population for hemiplegia. Aims and objectives: Identification of risk factors for c erebrovascular disease. Materials and Methods: Inclusion Criteria: Cases of acute stroke admitted in S.V.R.R.G.G.H, Tirupati were taken for the study. Exclusion Criteria: Head injury cases, neoplasm cases producing cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Re sults: Stroke was more common in male, 54% patients were male 46% were female. It was more common in 6 th and 7 th decade. More common risk factors were hypertension followed by smoking, diabetes mellitus. More common pathology was infarction. Conclusion: Com mon risk factors for acute stroke are hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, obesity, cardiac disease. Stroke was confirmed by CT scan of brain.

  20. Vitamin D, cardiovascular disease and risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaaby, Tea; Thuesen, Betina H.; Linneberg, Allan

    2017-01-01

    of vitamin D effects from a cardiovascular health perspective. It focuses on vitamin D in relation to cardiovascular disease, i.e. ischemic heart disease, and stroke; the traditional cardiovascular risk factors hypertension, abnormal blood lipids, obesity; and the emerging risk factors hyperparathyroidism......, microalbuminuria, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Meta-analyses of observational studies have largely found vitamin D levels to be inversely associated with cardiovascular risk and disease. However, Mendelian randomization studies and randomized, controlled trials...... (RCTs) have not been able to consistently replicate the observational findings. Several RCTs are ongoing, and the results from these are needed to clarify whether vitamin D deficiency is a causal and reversible factor to prevent cardiovascular disease....

  1. Preoperative modifiable risk factors in colorectal surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Rooijen, Stefanus; Carli, Francesco; Dalton, Susanne O

    2017-01-01

    in higher mortality rates and greater hospital costs. The number and severity of complications is closely related to patients' preoperative performance status. The aim of this study was to identify the most important preoperative modifiable risk factors that could be part of a multimodal prehabilitation...... program. METHODS: Prospectively collected data of a consecutive series of Dutch CRC patients undergoing colorectal surgery were analyzed. Modifiable risk factors were correlated to the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI) and compared within two groups: none or mild complications (CCI ... complications (CCI ≥20). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was done to explore the combined effect of individual risk factors. RESULTS: In this 139 patient cohort, smoking, malnutrition, alcohol consumption, neoadjuvant therapy, higher age, and male sex, were seen more frequently in the severe...

  2. Psychosocial risk factors for the metabolic syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jolene Masters; Lund, Rikke; Andersen, Ingelise

    2016-01-01

    Background/Objectives: Metabolic deregulations and development of metabolic syndrome may be an important pathway underlying the relationship between stress and cardiovascular disease. We aim to estimate the effect of a comprehensive range of psychosocial factors on the risk of developing metabolic.......11) to be risk factors for developing the metabolic syndrome in women, while vital exhaustion (OR 2.09, 95% CI 0.95 to 4.59) and intake of sleep medications (OR 2.54, 95% CI 0.92 to 5.96) may play a more important role in men. Conclusions: Experiencing major life events in work and adult life and....../or dysfunctional social networks is a risk factor for metabolic syndrome in women, and stress reactions such as vital exhaustion and intake of sleep medications may play a more important role in the development of metabolic syndrome men....

  3. Cardiovascular risk factors in subjects with psoriasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Peter; Thyssen, Jacob P; Zachariae, Claus

    2013-01-01

    Background Epidemiological data have established an association between cardiovascular disease and psoriasis. Only one general population study has so far compared prevalences of cardiovascular risk factors among subjects with psoriasis and control subjects. We aimed to determine the prevalence...... of cardiovascular risk factors in subjects with and without psoriasis in the general population. Methods During 2006-2008, a cross-sectional study was performed in the general population in Copenhagen, Denmark. A total of 3471 subjects participated in a general health examination that included assessment of current...... between subjects with and without psoriasis with regard to traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Our results contrast with the hitherto-reported increased prevalence of metabolic syndrome in subjects with psoriasis in the general US population. However, our results agree with those of other...

  4. Early life risk factors for testicular cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piltoft, Johanne Spanggaard; Larsen, Signe Benzon; Dalton, Susanne Oksbjerg

    2017-01-01

    of this study is to utilize data from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register (CSHRR) to evaluate cryptorchidism, birth weight and birth order as risk factors for testicular cancer. METHODS: The study population consisted of 408 cases of testicular cancer identified by a government issued identification...... in crude analyses [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.60, 95% CI 2.79-4.65]. Birth weight was inversely associated with testicular cancer and no clear association with birth order was observed. The positive association between cryptorchidism and testicular cancer was only slightly attenuated controlling for birth......PURPOSE: One established risk factors for testicular cancer is cryptorchidism. However, it remains unclear whether cryptorchidism is a risk factor in itself or whether the two conditions share common causes in early life (estrogen hypothesis), such as birth weight and birth order. The objective...

  5. Cardiovascular disease risk factors: a childhood perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praveen, Pradeep A; Roy, Ambuj; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2013-03-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide including in developing countries like India. Indians are known to be predisposed to CVD, which occur almost a decade earlier in them. Though these diseases manifest in the middle age and beyond, it is now clear that the roots of CVD lie in childhood and adolescence. Many of the conventional risk factors of CVD such as high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, tobacco use, unhealthy diet and obesity have their beginnings in childhood and then track overtime. It is thus important to screen and identify these risk factors early and treat them to prevent onset of CVD. Similarly community based strategies to prevent onset of these risk factors is imperative to tackle this burgeoning public health crisis especially in countries like ours with limited resources.

  6. Factors predicting recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rohit Saxena

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Recurrence after successful treatment of amblyopia is known and understanding the risk factors could help effective management. Aim: To measure incidence of recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia and evaluate factors predicting it. Settings and Design: Cohort Study at a tertiary level institution. Materials and Methods: Successfully treated anisometropic amblyopes aged 4−12 years were followed up for 1 year after stopping therapy. Best corrected visual acuity (BCVA, refractive error, stereoacuity and contrast sensitivity were evaluated at baseline and follow-up. Statistical Analysis: Intergroup analysis with appropriate tests: Chi-square test, Fisher′s exact test, Wilcoxon rank sum test and paired t-test. Results: One hundred and two patients with mean age at diagnosis 7.06 μ 1.81 years were followed-up for a mean duration of 1.0 μ 0.2 years. The mean pre-treatment BCVA (LogMAR score at diagnosis was 0.73 μ 0.36 units which improved to 0.20 μ 0.00 with treatment and after 1 year of stopping treatment was 0.22 μ 0.07. Thirteen (12.74% patients showed amblyopia recurrence during follow-up. Risk of recurrence was higher with older age of onset of treatment (6.64 μ 1.77 years without recurrence v/s 8.53 μ 1.39 years with recurrence, P = 0.0014. Greater extent of improvement of VA (P = 0.048 and final VA at stopping occlusion (P = 0.03 were associated with higher recurrence. Binocularity status or stereoacuity changes were not associated with risk of recurrence. Conclusions: Significant numbers of children suffer recurrence of amblyopia after stopping therapy. Older age, better BCVA after stopping therapy and greater magnitude of improvement in BCVA are important risk factors for recurrence. Careful follow-up is essential for early detection and management of recurrence.

  7. Factors predicting recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Rohit; Puranik, Shraddha; Singh, Digvijay; Menon, Vimla; Sharma, Pradeep; Phuljhele, Swati

    2013-01-01

    Context: Recurrence after successful treatment of amblyopia is known and understanding the risk factors could help effective management. Aim: To measure incidence of recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia and evaluate factors predicting it. Settings and Design: Cohort Study at a tertiary level institution. Materials and Methods: Successfully treated anisometropic amblyopes aged 4−12 years were followed up for 1 year after stopping therapy. Best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), refractive error, stereoacuity and contrast sensitivity were evaluated at baseline and follow-up. Statistical Analysis: Intergroup analysis with appropriate tests: Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, Wilcoxon rank sum test and paired t-test. Results: One hundred and two patients with mean age at diagnosis 7.06 ± 1.81 years were followed-up for a mean duration of 1.0 ± 0.2 years. The mean pre-treatment BCVA (LogMAR score) at diagnosis was 0.73 ± 0.36 units which improved to 0.20 ± 0.00 with treatment and after 1 year of stopping treatment was 0.22 ± 0.07. Thirteen (12.74%) patients showed amblyopia recurrence during follow-up. Risk of recurrence was higher with older age of onset of treatment (6.64 ± 1.77 years without recurrence v/s 8.53 ± 1.39 years with recurrence, P = 0.0014). Greater extent of improvement of VA (P = 0.048) and final VA at stopping occlusion (P = 0.03) were associated with higher recurrence. Binocularity status or stereoacuity changes were not associated with risk of recurrence. Conclusions: Significant numbers of children suffer recurrence of amblyopia after stopping therapy. Older age, better BCVA after stopping therapy and greater magnitude of improvement in BCVA are important risk factors for recurrence. Careful follow-up is essential for early detection and management of recurrence. PMID:24343594

  8. Factors predicting recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Rohit; Puranik, Shraddha; Singh, Digvijay; Menon, Vimla; Sharma, Pradeep; Phuljhele, Swati

    2013-11-01

    Recurrence after successful treatment of amblyopia is known and understanding the risk factors could help effective management. To measure incidence of recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia and evaluate factors predicting it. Cohort Study at a tertiary level institution. Successfully treated anisometropic amblyopes aged 4-12 years were followed up for 1 year after stopping therapy. Best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), refractive error, stereoacuity and contrast sensitivity were evaluated at baseline and follow-up. Intergroup analysis with appropriate tests: Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, Wilcoxon rank sum test and paired t-test. One hundred and two patients with mean age at diagnosis 7.06 μ 1.81 years were followed-up for a mean duration of 1.0 μ 0.2 years. The mean pre-treatment BCVA (LogMAR score) at diagnosis was 0.73 μ 0.36 units which improved to 0.20 μ 0.00 with treatment and after 1 year of stopping treatment was 0.22 μ 0.07. Thirteen (12.74%) patients showed amblyopia recurrence during follow-up. Risk of recurrence was higher with older age of onset of treatment (6.64 μ 1.77 years without recurrence v/s 8.53 μ 1.39 years with recurrence, P = 0.0014). Greater extent of improvement of VA (P = 0.048) and final VA at stopping occlusion (P = 0.03) were associated with higher recurrence. Binocularity status or stereoacuity changes were not associated with risk of recurrence. Significant numbers of children suffer recurrence of amblyopia after stopping therapy. Older age, better BCVA after stopping therapy and greater magnitude of improvement in BCVA are important risk factors for recurrence. Careful follow-up is essential for early detection and management of recurrence.

  9. Persistent postsurgical pain: risk factors and prevention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kehlet, Henrik; Jensen, Troels Staehelin; Woolf, Clifford J.

    2006-01-01

    therapy for postoperative pain should be investigated, since the intensity of acute postoperative pain correlates with the risk of developing a persistent pain state. Finally, the role of genetic factors should be studied, since only a proportion of patients with intraoperative nerve damage develop...... chronic pain. Based on information about the molecular mechanisms that affect changes to the peripheral and central nervous system in neuropathic pain, several opportunities exist for multimodal pharmacological intervention. Here, we outline strategies for identification of patients at risk...

  10. Drug response prediction in high-risk multiple myeloma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vangsted, A J; Helm-Petersen, S; Cowland, J B

    2018-01-01

    from high-risk patients by GEP70 at diagnosis from Total Therapy 2 and 3A to predict the response by the DRP score of drugs used in the treatment of myeloma patients. The DRP score stratified patients further. High-risk myeloma with a predicted sensitivity to melphalan by the DRP score had a prolonged...

  11. Risk stratification in upper gastrointestinal bleeding; prediction, prevention and prognosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, N.L.

    2013-01-01

    In the first part of this thesis we developed a novel prediction score for predicting upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding in both NSAID and low-dose aspirin users. Both for NSAIDs and low-dose aspirin use risk scores were developed by identifying the five most dominant predictors. The risk of upper

  12. Survey of risk factors urinary tract infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Dehghani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Women are very susceptible to urinary tract infections and pregnancy raises the risk of urinary tract infection. In general, little information on the risk factors of urinary tract infection in pregnancy is underway. Urinary tract infection in pregnancy is an important risk factor for pregnancy dire consequences. The purpose of this study is to find risk factors associated with urinary tract infection in pregnant women. Methods: The study was observational and retrospective analysis was carried on in the winter of which 310 pregnant women participated in 11 health centers in Shahrekord. Of these 155 cases (patients and 155 controls (healthy that were matched for age Information required from the health records of pregnant women and complete Czech list of researcher whose validity was confirmed by experts were gathered. Information needed by pregnant women health records and complete list researcher was collected. Czech list contains a number of possible risk factors for illness and demographic characteristics of the study participants was Statistical analysis software spss version 16 by using chi square tests and logistic regression and t analysis was performed. Results: Among the variables vomiting (p = 0/00 a history of urinary tract infection in a previous pregnancy (P =.001, CI = 1.508-4.408, OR = 2.578 abortion own history (P =.014, CI = 1.165 -3.847, OR = 2.117, respectively, the most important risk factors for urinary tract infection in pregnant women were determined. Conclusion: Prevention and treatment of vomiting in pregnancy prevention of urinary tract infections during pregnancy. Prevention of abortion can play an important role in the prevention of urinary tract infection and its complications in pregnancy. The study also revealed a number of factors can have an impact on urinary tract infection in pregnancy that has not been enough attention and it is necessary that more attention be placed on health programs and

  13. Application of cardiovascular disease risk prediction models and the relevance of novel biomarkers to risk stratification in Asian Indians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanjilal, S; Rao, V S; Mukherjee, M; Natesha, B K; Renuka, K S; Sibi, K; Iyengar, S S; Kakkar, Vijay V

    2008-01-01

    The increasing pressure on health resources has led to the emergence of risk assessment as an essential tool in the management of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Concern exists regarding the validity of their generalization to all populations. Existing risk scoring models do not incorporate emerging 'novel' risk factors. In this context, the aim of the study was to examine the relevance of British, European, and Framingham predictive CVD risk scores to the asymptomatic high risk Indian population. Blood samples drawn from the participants were analyzed for various 'traditional' and 'novel' biomarkers, and their CVD risk factor profiling was also done. The Framingham model defined only 5% of the study cohort to be at high risk, which appears to be an underestimation of CVD risk in this genetically predisposed population. These subjects at high risk had significantly elevated levels of lipid, pro-inflammatory, pro-thrombotic, and serological markers. It is more relevant to develop risk predictive scores for application to the Indian population. This study substantiates the argument that alternative approaches to risk stratification are required in order to make them more adaptable and applicable to different populations with varying risk factor and disease patterns.

  14. Metabolite Signatures of Metabolic Risk Factors and their Longitudinal Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, X.; Subramanian, S.; Willinger, C.M.; Chen, G.; Juhasz, P.; Courchesne, P.; Chen, B.H.; Li, X.; Hwang, S.J.; Fox, C.S.; O'Donnell, C.J.; Muntendam, P.; Fuster, V.; Bobeldijk-Pastorova, I.; Sookoian, S.C.; Pirola, C.J.; Gordon, N.; Adourian, A.; Larson, M.G.; Levy, D.

    2016-01-01

    Context: Metabolic dysregulation underlies key metabolic risk factors—obesity, dyslipidemia, and dysglycemia. Objective: To uncover mechanistic links between metabolomic dysregulation and metabolic risk by testing metabolite associations with risk factors cross-sectionally and with risk factor

  15. Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Freire da Silva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A major cause of morbidity and mortality in the context of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS is the occurrence of thrombotic events. Besides the pathogenic roles of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL, other risk factors and medical conditions, which are conditions for traditional risk of an individual without the APS, can coexist in this patient, raising their risk of developing thrombosis. Therefore, the clinical and laboratory investigation of comorbidities known to increase cardiovascular risk in patients with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome is crucial for the adoption of a more complete and effective treatment. Experimental models and clinical studies show evidence of association between APS and premature formation of atherosclerotic plaques. Atherosclerosis has major traditional risk factors: hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, dyslipidemia, smoking, and sedentary lifestyle that may be implicated in vascular involvement in patients with APS. The influence of nontraditional risk factors as hyperhomocysteinemia, increased lipoprotein a, and anti-oxLDL in the development of thromboembolic events in APS patients has been studied in scientific literature. Metabolic syndrome with all its components also has been recently studied in antiphospholipid syndrome and is associated with arterial events.

  16. Risk factors for post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikoma, Ryo; Sakane, Sayaka; Niwa, Kazutomo; Kanetaka, Sayaka; Kawano, Toshiro; Oridate, Nobuhiko

    2014-08-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the rate of post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage (PTH) in a single institution and to evaluate the clinical risk factors for PTH. We reviewed the records of 692 patients who underwent tonsillectomy (TE) at Yokohama Minami Kyosai Hospital in Japan. PTH grades were grouped into three categories according to the severity of the hemorrhagic episode: (I) minimal hemorrhage that stopped after noninvasive treatment, (II) hemorrhage requiring treatment with local anesthesia, and (III) hemorrhage requiring reoperation under general anesthesia in the operating room. Clinical risk factors such as sex, age (adults vs. children), TE indication, surgeon's skill level, operative time, ligature type, and duration of antibiotic administration for PTH were investigated. Among the 692 patients, 80 (11.6%) showed PTH, with primary and secondary hemorrhage accounting for 1.6% and 10.0%, respectively. A category III PTH was observed in 18 patients; thus, the overall risk of reoperation was 2.6%. The PTH episode most frequently occurred on postoperative days 5 and 6. The frequency of PTH was significantly higher in male patients and in adults (Pdefinition of PTH. Clinical risk factors for PTH were adult age and male gender. The surgeon's skill level was an additional risk factor for category III PTH. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Reproductive factors and Parkinson's disease risk in Danish women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greene, N; Lassen, C F; Rugbjerg, K

    2014-01-01

    and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: After adjusting for smoking, caffeine and alcohol use, education, age, and family Parkinson's disease history, inverse associations between Parkinson's disease and early menarche (first period at ≤11 years), oral contraceptives, high parity (≥4 children) and bilateral...... and fertile life length, age at menopause or post-menopausal hormone treatment was found. CONCLUSIONS: Reproductive factors related to women's early- to mid-reproductive lives appear to be predictive of subsequent Parkinson's disease risk whereas factors occurring later in life seem less important....

  18. Lung cancer incidence and risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bairakova, A.

    1993-01-01

    The possibility of developing lung cancer (lc) as a consequence of inhaling hot particles from the Chernobyl accident is discussed. The risk from various factors is reviewed in order to assess the rate of contribution for any of them to carcinogenic process. The conclusions are based on data reported by National Centre of Oncology, Sofia (BG). A total of 2873 new cases have been recorded in 1990. The data for the period 1970-1990 show a crude increase for males and tend to stabilization for females. The similar pattern is obtained in other countries and geographic areas with steady rise of lc cases with about 0.5% per year. The contribution of particular risk factor and its interaction with other factors is assessed on the basis of large number of epidemiologic and experimental studies. The risk of cigarette smoking, as the principal cause for lc, is discussed in various aspects - age, duration, possible dropping the habit. The assessment of another risk factor - exposure to relatively high doses of natural radon daughter products - is more complicated. As an occupational hazard in uranium mines radon and its progeny reveals an increase in excess lc incidence. Regarding radon and its daughters as an environmental risk factor in dwellings, no clear positive relationship between exposure and lc incidence has been observed. In this case the assessment for population living in areas with higher concentration of radon products have to rely on data from uranium mines. Non radiation factors as asbestos, ethers, chromates, metallic iron, nickel, beryllium and arsenic, are also considered. The combined effect of all these factors, as well as of pathological cell processes, viruses, malfunctions of immune system, is mentioned as well. The possibility of interpreting the findings from epidemiological studies within the framework of theoretical multistage models of carcinogenic process is pointed out. (author)

  19. Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong, Bin-Yan; He, Shi-Cheng; Zhu, Hai-Dong; Wu, Chun-Gen; Fang, Wen; Chen, Li; Guo, Jin-He; Deng, Gang; Zhu, Guang-Yu; Teng, Gao-Jun

    2017-01-01

    PurposeWe aim to determine the predictors of new adjacent vertebral fractures (AVCFs) after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) and to construct a risk prediction score to estimate a 2-year new AVCF risk-by-risk factor condition.Materials and MethodsPatients with OVCFs who underwent their first PVP between December 2006 and December 2013 at Hospital A (training cohort) and Hospital B (validation cohort) were included in this study. In training cohort, we assessed the independent risk predictors and developed the probability of new adjacent OVCFs (PNAV) score system using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The accuracy of this system was then validated in both training and validation cohorts by concordance (c) statistic.Results421 patients (training cohort: n = 256; validation cohort: n = 165) were included in this study. In training cohort, new AVCFs after the first PVP treatment occurred in 33 (12.9%) patients. The independent risk factors were intradiscal cement leakage and preexisting old vertebral compression fracture(s). The estimated 2-year absolute risk of new AVCFs ranged from less than 4% in patients with neither independent risk factors to more than 45% in individuals with both factors.ConclusionsThe PNAV score is an objective and easy approach to predict the risk of new AVCFs.

  20. Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhong, Bin-Yan; He, Shi-Cheng; Zhu, Hai-Dong [Southeast University, Department of Radiology, Medical School, Zhongda Hospital (China); Wu, Chun-Gen [Shanghai Jiao Tong University Affiliated Sixth People’s Hospital, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology (China); Fang, Wen; Chen, Li; Guo, Jin-He; Deng, Gang; Zhu, Guang-Yu; Teng, Gao-Jun, E-mail: gjteng@vip.sina.com [Southeast University, Department of Radiology, Medical School, Zhongda Hospital (China)

    2017-02-15

    PurposeWe aim to determine the predictors of new adjacent vertebral fractures (AVCFs) after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) and to construct a risk prediction score to estimate a 2-year new AVCF risk-by-risk factor condition.Materials and MethodsPatients with OVCFs who underwent their first PVP between December 2006 and December 2013 at Hospital A (training cohort) and Hospital B (validation cohort) were included in this study. In training cohort, we assessed the independent risk predictors and developed the probability of new adjacent OVCFs (PNAV) score system using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The accuracy of this system was then validated in both training and validation cohorts by concordance (c) statistic.Results421 patients (training cohort: n = 256; validation cohort: n = 165) were included in this study. In training cohort, new AVCFs after the first PVP treatment occurred in 33 (12.9%) patients. The independent risk factors were intradiscal cement leakage and preexisting old vertebral compression fracture(s). The estimated 2-year absolute risk of new AVCFs ranged from less than 4% in patients with neither independent risk factors to more than 45% in individuals with both factors.ConclusionsThe PNAV score is an objective and easy approach to predict the risk of new AVCFs.

  1. Risk factors for acute renal failure: inherent and modifiable risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblanc, Martine; Kellum, John A; Gibney, R T Noel; Lieberthal, Wilfred; Tumlin, James; Mehta, Ravindra

    2005-12-01

    Our purpose is to discuss established risk factors in the development of acute renal failure and briefly overview clinical markers and preventive measures. Findings from the literature support the role of older age, diabetes, underlying renal insufficiency, and heart failure as predisposing factors for acute renal failure. Diabetics with baseline renal insufficiency represent the highest risk subgroup. An association between sepsis, hypovolemia, and acute renal failure is clear. Liver failure, rhabdomyolysis, and open-heart surgery (especially valve replacement) are clinical conditions potentially leading to acute renal failure. Increasing evidence shows that intraabdominal hypertension may contribute to the development of acute renal failure. Radiocontrast and antimicrobial agents are the most common causes of nephrotoxic acute renal failure. In terms of prevention, avoiding nephrotoxins when possible is certainly desirable; fluid therapy is an effective prevention measure in certain clinical circumstances. Supporting cardiac output, mean arterial pressure, and renal perfusion pressure are indicated to reduce the risk for acute renal failure. Nonionic, isoosmolar intravenous contrast should be used in high-risk patients. Although urine output and serum creatinine lack sensitivity and specificity in acute renal failure, they remain the most used parameters in clinical practice. There are identified risk factors of acute renal failure. Because acute renal failure is associated with a worsening outcome, particularly if occurring in critical illness and if severe enough to require renal replacement therapy, preventive measures should be part of appropriate management.

  2. Sociomedical risk factors for male infecundity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Epanchintseva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Subjects and methods. A total of 917 men from infertile couples with abnormal ejaculate indicators were examined. Their age was 34.1 ± 6.3 years; the infertility period was 4.6 ± 3.9 years. A retrospective analysis of their case histories, clinical examination, questioning to identify risk factors for infertility, and anthropometric measurements of weight and height were made. Weight was rated normal at a body mass index (BMI of ≤ 24.9 kg/m2 ; overweight at 25.0–29.9 kg/m2 , and obesity at ≥ 30 kg/m2 . When identifying infertility risk factors, the investigators kept in mind 24 risk factors at the moment of examination or in the patient histories, which were grouped into 3 clusters: 1 – environmental factors and occupational hazards; 2 – evidence of congenital and acquired abnormalities; 3 – social and quality-of-life factors; this cluster also includes history and examination evidence of tuberculosis, sexually transmitted diseases, and other social diseases, such as hepatitis B and C, or human immunodeficiency infection. Then the men who did not show an exacerbation of somatic diseases, genetic anomalies associated with reproductive disorders, or an exacerbation of social diseases at the moment of examination were selected from the total sample. These were divided into 2 groups: normal weight and obese patients. The frequency of the above mentioned infertility risk factors and additionally the proportion of persons engaged in intellectual or manual labor were calculated in each group.Results and discussion. In the total sample, the frequency of infertility risk factors including occupational hazards and environmental factors was < 20 %; the incidence of congenital and acquired abnormalities was 1–39 %. The highest frequency of risk factors was noted in cluster 3. Among them, alcohol consumption (75 % occupied the first place; next were the rate of sexually transmitted infections (59 %, emotional stress (44 %, and smoking (42

  3. Prevalence and Risk Factors of High Risk Human Papillomavirus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cervical cancer is the most common female cancer in northern Nigeria, yet the pattern of infection with human papillomavirus, the principal aetiologic agent is unknown. This was a preliminary study conducted in two referral hospitals in order to establish base-line data on the prevalence and risk factors for the infection in ...

  4. Changes in risk factors during adolescence: implications for risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Put, C.E.; Deković, M.; Stams, G.J.J.M.; van der Laan, P.H.; Hoeve, M.; van Amelsfort, L.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined to what extent the significance of both static and dynamic risk factors for recidivism changes in the course of adolescence. For this purpose, file and interview data of 1,396 juveniles charged with a criminal offense were analyzed. This study showed that the impact of almost all

  5. Risk factors in the internationalization process of SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lea Kubíčková

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available At the present time characterized by globalizing market, increasing competition, accelerating change and the occurrence of many risks it is necessary for businesses, which want to remain competitive, to be able to respond flexibly to the changes in a timely manner and to identify and manage risks. Companies try to diversify business risks, such as the loss of market share in the domestic market, by entering the foreign markets and participating in international trade. Involvement in the internationalization process cannot be understood only as an opportunity to achieve greater profits and a competitive advantage, it is necessary to consider potential risks accompanying this process, because engaging in the internationalization process may bring the companies many different specific risks. It would be useful for companies to identify the factors of failure resulting from internationalization. Identifying the barriers to internationalization, the main risk factors associated with it and designing their possible prevention or elimination could provide SMEs an impetus to enter foreign markets. Although the risk is a frequently discussed issue in the international discussion, only few studies were strictly focused on risk management in the internationalization process. Risk management is a broad discipline that requires a specific knowledge in practice. However, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises are often unable to identify the potential risks of the internationalization process and therefore are not able to manage the risks. This is due to the fact that SMEs usually do not have managers with a deep knowledge of risk management and, moreover, these managers also often lack experience with foreign markets. Unfortunately, the surveys of SMEs conclude that the poorly predicted risks of entering foreign markets are one of the most common causes of failure of SMEs internationalization process.The main objective of this paper is to identify

  6. Predictability of cardiovascular risks by psychological measures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šolcová, Iva; Kebza, V.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 1 (2008), s. 241-241 ISSN 0887-0446 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA406/06/0747 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : CVD risks * psychological measures * physiological risks Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

  7. Predicting risk of cancer during HIV infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borges, Álvaro H; Silverberg, Michael J; Wentworth, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the relationship between inflammatory [interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP)] and coagulation (D-dimer) biomarkers and cancer risk during HIV infection.......To investigate the relationship between inflammatory [interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP)] and coagulation (D-dimer) biomarkers and cancer risk during HIV infection....

  8. [Psychosocial risk factors at work as predictors of mobbing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meseguer de Pedro, Mariano; Soler Sánchez, María I; García-Izquierdo, Mariano; Sáez Navarro, M C; Sánchez Meca, Julio

    2007-05-01

    This work analyses the way in which various psychosocial risk indicators may predict mobbing. A sample of 638 workers, 168 men and 470 women, from the fruit-and-vegetable sector was evaluated. An anonymous questionnaire was administered to all employees who were present on the evaluation days in the companies comprising the study. After analysing the data obtained with the mobbing questionnaire NAQ-RE (Sáez, García-Izquierdo, and Llor, 2003) and with the psychosocial risk factors evaluation method of the INSHT (Martín and Pérez, 1997), using canonical regression, we found that several psychosocial factors such as role definition, mental workload, interest in the workers, and supervision / participation predict two types of mobbing: personal mobbing and work-performance-related mobbing.

  9. Risk factors for goiter and thyroid nodules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, N.; Laurberg, P.; Perrild, H.

    2002-01-01

    is probably dependent on iodine status, because it seems that the zenith of goiter prevalence appears earlier in life the more severe iodine deficiency the population is exposed to. The association with individual risk factors has been investigated in some studies, especially the association with tobacco......The occurrence of thyroid diseases is determined by interplay between genetic and environmental factors. The major environmental factor that determines goiter prevalence is iodine status, but other environmental factors influencing entire populations have been identified such as goitrogens in food...... and drinking water. Less focus has been on individual environmental factors and the interplay between factors. The goiter prevalence is higher in certain groups in the population. The variation in goiter prevalence between the genders is well known with a higher occurrence among women. The association with age...

  10. Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Aloosh, Arash

    2014-01-01

    In a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility and frictionless markets, I express expected forex returns as a function of consumption growth variances and stock variance risk premiums (VRPs)—the difference between the risk-neutral and statistical expectations of market return variation. This provides a motivation for using the forward-looking information available in stock market volatility indices to predict forex returns. Empirically, I find that stock VRPs predict forex returns at a ...

  11. Psychosocial risk factors and personality disorders in outpatient cardiology setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Suárez-Bagnasco

    2015-01-01

    Psychological risk factors and personality disorders comorbidities are more frequent than psychological risk factors only or personality disorders only in outpatient cardiology setting without cardiovascular diseases.

  12. Exploring Risk Factors for Follicular Lymphoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander J. Ambinder

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Follicular lymphoma (FL is an indolent malignancy of germinal center B cells with varied incidence across racial groups and geographic regions. Improvements in the classification of non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes provide an opportunity to explore associations between environmental exposures and FL incidence. Our paper found that aspects of Western lifestyle including sedentary lifestyle, obesity, and diets high in meat and milk are associated with an increased risk of FL. Diets rich in fruits and vegetables, polyunsaturated fatty acids, vitamin D, and certain antioxidants are inversely associated with FL risk. A medical history of Sjogren's syndrome, influenza vaccination, and heart disease may be associated with FL incidence. Associations between FL and exposure to pesticides, industrial solvents, hair dyes, and alcohol/tobacco were inconsistent. Genetic risk factors include variants at the 6p21.32 region of the MHC II locus, polymorphisms of the DNA repair gene XRCC3, and UV exposure in individuals with certain polymorphisms of the vitamin D receptor. Increasing our understanding of risk factors for FL must involve integrating epidemiological studies of genetics and exposures to allow for the examination of risk factors and interactions between genes and environment.

  13. Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

    2014-05-21

    Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

  14. Risk Factors for Suicide Attempt in Drug Abusers

    OpenAIRE

    farideh faraji; Neda Kakayi; Mohammad Kazem Atef Vahid; Ahmad Sohraby; Samira Purghorbani

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The present study was conducted to identify risk and prediction factors of suicide attempts among drug abusers. Method: This causal-comparative study was conducted on 91 drug abusers that included 42 male and female suicide attempters and 49 male and female counterparts. Millon multi-axial personality inventory-II (MCMI-II), Dass-42 (depression, anxiety, stress), and coping styles inventory were used for data collection purposes. Results: The highest rate of suicide attempt was fou...

  15. Risk Factors for Smoking Behaviors among Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Sung Suk; Joung, Kyoung Hwa

    2014-01-01

    Many students in Korea begin to use tobacco and develop a regular smoking habit before they reach adulthood. Yet, little is known about various signs contributing to the transition of the student smoking behaviors. This study used a national sample to explore and compare risk factors for smoking behaviors. Three types of smoking behaviors were…

  16. Risk factors for meningitis after transsphenoidal surgery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Aken, M. O.; de Marie, S.; van der Lely, A. J.; Singh, R.; van den Berge, J. H.; Poublon, R. M.; Fokkens, W. J.; Lamberts, S. W.; de Herder, W. W.

    1997-01-01

    To evaluate possible risk factors for meningitis, we retrospectively reviewed 228 transsphenoidal operations (in which a standard regimen of amoxicillin prophylaxis was used) for sellar pathology. The incidence of meningitis was 3.1% (seven of 228 cases). Cultures of preoperative specimens from the

  17. Risk factors in oil and gas lending

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.; Kipp, J.M.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that with the increasing internationalization of the petroleum industry, lenders to the industry must understand and overcome several new credit risk factors. As a result, new financial products are now available to reserve-based borrowers. Traditional project financing now also may include futures hedging, swaps, and collar elements

  18. Risk factors associated with oesophageal malignancy among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk factors associated with oesophageal malignancy among Ethiopian patients: a case control study. ... The PDF file you selected should load here if your Web browser has a PDF reader plug-in installed (for example, a recent version of Adobe Acrobat Reader). If you would like more information about how to print, save, ...

  19. Risk factors for feline diabetes mellitus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slingerland, L.I.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304830917

    2008-01-01

    The chapters of Part I of the thesis describe the development of techniques that can be used in the assessment of risk factors for the development of diabetes mellitus (DM) in cats. The hyperglycemic glucose clamp (HGC) was developed for use in conscious cats, equipped with arterial catheters for

  20. Risk Factors for Depression in Early Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacPhee, Angela R.; Andrews, Jac J. W.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify salient risk factors for depression in early adolescence from a group of common predictors. The following nine predictors were examined: (1) perceived quality of peer relationships, (2) perceived parental nurturance, (3) perceived parental rejection, (4) self-esteem, (5) body image, (6) pubertal status,…

  1. [Risk factors found in suicide attempters].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa-Manzano, Alberto Iram; Robles-Romero, Miguel Angel; Gutiérrez-Román, Elsa Armida; Martínez-Arriaga, María Guadalupe; Valadez-Toscano, Francisco Javier; Cabrera-Pivaral, Carlos E

    2009-01-01

    A better understanding of risk factors for suicide in general population is crucial for the design of suicide prevention programs. Our objective was to identify personal and family risk factors in suicide attempters. Case-control design. We searched in patients with an acute intoxication, those subjects with and intoxication attributable to suicide attempt. These patients were matched with controls by gender and the date of intoxication. We use a structured questionnaire to identify personal characteristics, family features and network support. Odds ratio (OR) and 95 % confidence interval were obtained. 25 cases and 25 controls were evaluated. The risk factors associated with suicide attempt adjusted by age, were being a student and smoking habits. Family violence background showed OR = 3.8 (IC 95 % = 1.1-13), family disintegration a OR = 8.5 (IC 95 % = 2.1-35), critical events background OR = 8.8 (IC 95 % = 2.1-36), poor self-esteem OR = 8.2 (IC 95 % 2-35), depression OR = 22 (IC 95 % = 3-190), anxiety OR = 9 (IC 95 % = 2-47), family dysfunction OR = 25 (IC 95 % = 4-151). The principal risk factor for suicide attempt was family dysfunction and psychological traits.

  2. Risk factors for hearing loss in neonates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ni Luh Putu Maharani

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background An estimated 6 of 1,000 children with live births suffer from permanent hearing loss at birth or the neonatal period. At least 90% of cases occur in developing countries. Hearing loss should be diagnosed as early as possible so that intervention can be done before the age of 6 months. Objective To determine risk factors for hearing loss in neonates. Methods We performed a case-control study involving 100 neonates with and without hearing loss who were born at Sanglah Hospital, Denpasar from November 2012 to February 2013. Subjects were consisted of 2 groups, those with hearing loss (case group of 50 subjects and without hearing loss (control group of 50 subjects. The groups were matched for gender and birth weight. We assessed the following risk factors for hearing loss: severe neonatal asphyxia, hyperbilirubinemia, meningitis, history of aminoglycoside therapy, and mechanical ventilation by Chi-square analysis. The results were presented as odds ratio and its corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Results Seventy percent of neonates with hearing loss had history of aminoglycoside therapy. Multivariable analysis revealed that aminoglycoside therapy of 14 days or more was a significant risk factor for hearing loss (OR 2.7; 95%CI 1.1 to 6.8; P=0.040. There were no statistically significant associations between hearing loss and severe asphyxia, hyperbilirubinemia, meningitis, or mechanical ventilation. Conclusion Aminoglycoside therapy for >=14 days was identified as a risk factor for hearing loss in neonates.

  3. [Hepatitis caused by virus C. Risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garassini, M E; Pulgar, Y; Alvarado, M; Garassini, M A

    1995-01-01

    To establish the risk factors to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, we studied 120 patients divided in 2 groups: A first group of 40 patients with HCV infection, 24 (60%) with past medical history of blood transfusion, 14 (35%) of them also had hemodialysis and 3 Kidney transplant. 10 patients (25%) had mayor surgery without transfusion, 3 had frequent visits to the dentist and 3 month baby whose mother was HCV positive. In 4 patients we found no risk factors. A second group of 80 patients who visit our clinic for the first time, 2 were found positive for HCV (1.6%). 13 of them had blood transfusion, one was HCV+ (OR: 5.5, P = 0.73). 41 had history of mayor surgery, one HCV+ (OR: 0.95, P = 1.000). The risk factors related to HCV infection in our population were blood transfusion, hemodialysis and mayor surgery. The use of EV drugs, tatoos, sexual behavior, interfamiliar or vertical transmission were not risk factor in our population.

  4. Risk Factors for Domestic Violence in Curacao

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wijk, N. Ph. L.; de Bruijn, J. G. M.

    2012-01-01

    One out of three people (25% of men, 38% of women) in Curacao have experienced some form of domestic violence at some point in their adult lives. The most significant risk factors for domestic violence in Curacao are the female gender, a young age, low education, and experiencing domestic violence victimization in childhood. Divorce, single…

  5. Nutritional risk factors for postmenopausal osteoporosis | Berriche ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Osteoporosis is a bone disease that combines both a decrease in bone density and its internal architecture changes. Nutrition is one of the major determinants of osteoporosis. Aim: The purpose of our study was to identify nutritional risk factors of osteoporosis of two groups of osteoporotic women and ...

  6. Risk factors for falls of older citizens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boelens, C.; Hekman, E. E. G.; Verkerke, G. J.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Fall prevention is a major issue in the ageing society. This study provides an overview of all risk factors for falls of older citizens. METHOD: A literature search was conducted to retrieve studies of the past 25 years. All participants from the studies lived in the community or

  7. Risk Factors and Prodromal Eating Pathology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stice, Eric; Ng, Janet; Shaw, Heather

    2010-01-01

    Prospective studies have identified factors that increase risk for eating pathology onset, including perceived pressure for thinness, thin-ideal internalization, body dissatisfaction, dietary restraint, and negative affect. Research also suggests that body dissatisfaction and dietary restraint may constitute prodromal stages of the development of…

  8. Risk factors for domestic violence in Curacao

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijk, N.Ph.L.; de Bruijn, J.G.M.

    2012-01-01

    One out of three people (25% of men, 38% of women) in Curacao have experienced some form of domestic violence at some point in their adult lives. The most significant risk factors for domestic violence in Curacao are the female gender, a young age, low education, and experiencing domestic violence

  9. Psychosocial risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heuvel, S. van den

    2014-01-01

    It has been known for some time that risk factors in the workplace can have a negative effect on health. Ramazzini was one of the first scientists to identify occupational health hazards. He wrote about diseases of the musculoskeletal system caused by sudden and irregular movements and the adoption

  10. Self-management of vascular risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sol-de Rijk, B.G.M.

    2009-01-01

    Summary The aim of this thesis was to provide insight into the potential of a self-management approach in treatment of vascular risk factors and to develop a self-management intervention. Furthermore to examine if this intervention, based on self-efficacy promoting theory, is effective in reducing

  11. Depression: risk factor for cardiovascular disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuehl, L.K.; Penninx, B.W.J.H.; Otte, C.

    2012-01-01

    Major depression is an independent risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease. In patients with existing cardiovascular disease, major depression has a large impact on the quality of life and is associated with a poor course and prognosis. Potential mechanisms responsible for this

  12. Lifestyle factors and risk of cardiovascular diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoevenaar-Blom, M.P.

    2013-01-01

    Background

    Evidence is accumulating that lifestyle factors influence the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases (CVD). A healthy diet, being physically active, moderate alcohol consumption and not smoking are associated with a lower CVD risk. In

  13. Atherogenic Risk Factors and Hearing Thresholds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Thomas Winther; Ramlau-Hansen, Cecilia Høst; Stokholm, Zara Ann

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of atherogenic risk factors on hearing thresholds. In a cross-sectional study we analyzed data from a Danish survey in 2009-2010 on physical and psychological working conditions. The study included 576 white- and blue-collar workers from c...

  14. Recent development of risk-prediction models for incident hypertension: An updated systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongdong Sun

    Full Text Available Hypertension is a leading global health threat and a major cardiovascular disease. Since clinical interventions are effective in delaying the disease progression from prehypertension to hypertension, diagnostic prediction models to identify patient populations at high risk for hypertension are imperative.Both PubMed and Embase databases were searched for eligible reports of either prediction models or risk scores of hypertension. The study data were collected, including risk factors, statistic methods, characteristics of study design and participants, performance measurement, etc.From the searched literature, 26 studies reporting 48 prediction models were selected. Among them, 20 reports studied the established models using traditional risk factors, such as body mass index (BMI, age, smoking, blood pressure (BP level, parental history of hypertension, and biochemical factors, whereas 6 reports used genetic risk score (GRS as the prediction factor. AUC ranged from 0.64 to 0.97, and C-statistic ranged from 60% to 90%.The traditional models are still the predominant risk prediction models for hypertension, but recently, more models have begun to incorporate genetic factors as part of their model predictors. However, these genetic predictors need to be well selected. The current reported models have acceptable to good discrimination and calibration ability, but whether the models can be applied in clinical practice still needs more validation and adjustment.

  15. [Risk factors for post partum depression].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dois, Angelina; Uribe, Claudia; Villarroel, Luis; Contreras, Aixa

    2012-06-01

    Postpartum depression (PPD) is a public health problem with high prevalence in Chile. Many factors are associated with PPD. To analyze the factors associated with the incidence of depressive symptoms (SD) in women with low obstetric risk. Cross-sectional analytical study on a sample of 105 postpartum women with low obstetric risk assessed by the Edinburgh Depression Scale at the eighth week postpartum. A 37% prevalence of depressive symptoms was found. Univariate analysis showed that the perception of family functioning, overcrowding and number of siblings, were significantly associated with postpartum depressive symptoms. A multiple regression model only accepted family functioning as a predictor of depression. Perception of family functioning was the only variable that explained in part the presence of depressive symptoms in women with low obstetric risk.

  16. Chronic disease risk factors among hotel workers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawde, Nilesh Chandrakant; Kurlikar, Prashika R.

    2016-01-01

    Context: Non-communicable diseases have emerged as a global health issue. Role of occupation in pathogenesis of non-communicable diseases has not been explored much especially in the hospitality industry. Aims: Objectives of this study include finding risk factor prevalence among hotel workers and studying relationship between occupational group and chronic disease risk factors chiefly high body mass index. Settings and Design: A cross-sectional study was conducted among non-managerial employees from classified hotels in India. Materials and Methods: The study participants self-administered pre-designed pilot-tested questionnaires. Statistical analysis used: The risk factor prevalence rates were expressed as percentages. Chi-square test was used for bi-variate analysis. Overweight was chosen as ‘outcome’ variable of interest and binary multi-logistic regression analysis was used to identify determinants. Results: The prevalence rates of tobacco use, alcohol use, inadequate physical activity and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables were 32%, 49%, 24% and 92% respectively among hotel employees. Tobacco use was significantly common among those in food preparation and service, alcohol use among those in food service and security and leisure time physical activity among front office workers. More than two-fifths (42.7%) were overweight. Among the hotel workers, those employed in food preparation and security had higher odds of 1.650 (CI: 1.025 – 2.655) and 3.245 (CI: 1.296 – 8.129) respectively of being overweight. Conclusions: Prevalence of chronic disease risk factors is high among hotel workers. Risk of overweight is significantly high in food preparation and security departments and workplace interventions are necessary to address these risks PMID:27390474

  17. Chronic disease risk factors among hotel workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawde, Nilesh Chandrakant; Kurlikar, Prashika R

    2016-01-01

    Non-communicable diseases have emerged as a global health issue. Role of occupation in pathogenesis of non-communicable diseases has not been explored much especially in the hospitality industry. Objectives of this study include finding risk factor prevalence among hotel workers and studying relationship between occupational group and chronic disease risk factors chiefly high body mass index. A cross-sectional study was conducted among non-managerial employees from classified hotels in India. The study participants self-administered pre-designed pilot-tested questionnaires. The risk factor prevalence rates were expressed as percentages. Chi-square test was used for bi-variate analysis. Overweight was chosen as 'outcome' variable of interest and binary multi-logistic regression analysis was used to identify determinants. The prevalence rates of tobacco use, alcohol use, inadequate physical activity and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables were 32%, 49%, 24% and 92% respectively among hotel employees. Tobacco use was significantly common among those in food preparation and service, alcohol use among those in food service and security and leisure time physical activity among front office workers. More than two-fifths (42.7%) were overweight. Among the hotel workers, those employed in food preparation and security had higher odds of 1.650 (CI: 1.025 - 2.655) and 3.245 (CI: 1.296 - 8.129) respectively of being overweight. Prevalence of chronic disease risk factors is high among hotel workers. Risk of overweight is significantly high in food preparation and security departments and workplace interventions are necessary to address these risks.

  18. Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schalkwijk, D.B. van; Graaf, A.A. de; Tsivtsivadze, E.; Parnell, L.D.; Werff-van der Vat, B.J.C. van der; Ommen, B. van; Greef, J. van der; Ordovás, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to

  19. [Injuries in France: trends and risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, J-B; Thélot, B; Beck, F

    2013-06-01

    Whatever the type of injury considered, prevention requires an improvement in health services' awareness of risk factors. The Health Barometer is a general population survey conducted in France since 1992 to contribute to surveillance in this field. The survey's statistical power and the numerous health topics included in the questionnaire provide accurate information for healthcare professionals and decision-makers. The Health Barometer 2010 was a nationwide telephone survey of 9110 persons representative of the 15-85-year-old population. One part of the questionnaire detailed injuries which had occurred during the past year. The numerous variables recorded enabled application of logistic regression models to explore risk factors related to different types of injury by age group. The findings were compared with the Health Barometer 2005 data to search for temporal trends of injury prevalence. The data analysis showed that 10.3% of the 15-85-year-olds reported an injury during the past year. This rate was higher than recorded in 2005; the increase was mainly due to domestic accidents and injuries occurring during recreational activities. Both type of injury and risk factors exhibited age-related variability. Domestic accidents and injuries occurring during recreational activities predominated in the older population and were associated with physical or mental health problems (chronic disease, diability, sleep disorders). For younger people, injuries were related to cannabis use, drunkedness, and insufficient sleep. Risk factors were also depended on type of injury: occupational accident-related injuries were linked with social disadvantage (manual worker population) whereas sports injuries were more common in the socially advantaged population. This survey confirms established knowledge and highlights, at different stages of life, new risk factors that contribute to injuries in France. These findings should be helpful for the development of adapted injury

  20. Induction of labour: clinical predictive factors for success and failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batinelli, Laura; Serafini, Andrea; Nante, Nicola; Petraglia, Felice; Severi, Filiberto Maria; Messina, Gabriele

    2018-04-01

    Induction of labour (IOL) is a widely-used practice in obstetrics. Our aim was to evaluate predictors of vaginal delivery in postdate pregnancies induced with prostaglandins. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study with analytic component. A total of 145 women, admitted for IOL after the 41st week of gestation, were induced with a vaginal pessary releasing prostaglandins. Type of delivery, whether vaginal or caesarean, was the outcome. Several maternal and foetal variables were investigated. The Kaplan-Maier curves, monovariate and a multivariate logistic regression were carried out. In our population, 80.7% of women had vaginal delivery after the induction. Multiparity and a high Bishop score at the beginning of the IOL were protective factors for a vaginal delivery (respectively OR 0.16, p = .028 and OR 0.62, p = .034) while age >35 years, and the foetal birth weight >3500 g at the birth, resulted in being risk factors for caesarean section (respectively OR 4.20, p = .006 and OR 3.63, p = .013). IMPACT STATEMENT What is already known on this subject: Induction of labour (IOL) is a widely used practice in obstetrics. Scientific literature shows several predictors of successful induction, although there is no unanimity except for 'multiparity' and 'favourable Bishop score' which are associated with positive outcome of the induction. The main difficulty in finding other predictive factors is the heterogeneity of this field (different local protocols in each hospital, type of induction, populations and outcomes chosen in each study). In addition to that, populations are not always comparable due to the different gestation. For this reason, we decided to select a specific population of women, such as low risk postterm pregnancies induced with prostaglandins, in order to detect possible predictive factors for the success of the IOL for women with uncomplicated pregnancies. What the results of this study add: Our study agrees with existing

  1. Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

    2014-01-01

    A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks...... prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves...

  2. Behavior Risk Factors Among Russian Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anischenko, Aleksander; Arhangelskaya, Anna; Klenov, Michael; Burdukova, Ekaterina; Ogarev, Valrii; Ignatov, Nikolay; Osadchenko, Irina; Gurevich, Konstantin

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To analyze the prevalence of risk factors among Russian students. Methods In this study, 834 students were included from five Federal universities which were localized in four Federal regions of Russian Federation. Future doctors, school teachers, and wellness trainers were included in this study. Students were specifically asked about smoking, physical activity International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), and food preference. Waist, hip, weight, and height were measured. Results The region of study and ethnic group were not influenced with respect to age and body mass index ( p > .1), while all other factors had a significant influence ( p students in comparison with those in future teachers and wellness instructors ( p obesity (due to levels of body mass index and waist-hip ratio) were found in medical students. Perspective Special programs to prevent the most common behavior risk factors in future medical doctors have to be designed.

  3. Use of Repeated Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Measurements to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paige, Ellie; Barrett, Jessica; Pennells, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    The added value of incorporating information from repeated blood pressure and cholesterol measurements to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has not been rigorously assessed. We used data on 191,445 adults from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (38 cohorts from 17 countries with data...

  4. Organizational and Personality Factors Predicting Knowledge ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Findings indicated that need for achievement and need for affiliation significantly independently predicted knowledge sharing intention among bankers, whereas need for power, organizational culture and organizational trust did not. This implies that emphasis should not be placed on need for power, organizational culture, ...

  5. [Risk factors for malignant evolution of gastrointestinal stromal tumors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrei, S; Andrei, Adriana; Tonea, A; Andronesi, D; Becheanu, G; Dumbravă, Mona; Pechianu, C; Herlea, V; Popescu, I

    2007-01-01

    Gastrointestinal stromal tumors are the most frequent non-epithelial digestive tumors, being classified in the group of primitive mesenchymal tumors of the digestive tract. These tumors have a non predictable evolution and where stratified regarding the risk for malignant behavior in 4 categories: very low risk, low risk, intermediate risk and high risk. We performed a retrospective non randomised study including the patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors treated in the Department of General Surgery and Liver Transplantation of Fundeni Clinical Institute in the period January 2002 - June 2007, to define the epidemiological, clinico-paraclinical, histological and especially evolutive features of the gastrointestinal stromal tumors from this group, with a special regard to the risk factors for their malignant behavior. The most important risk factors in gastrointestinal stromal tumors are the tumor size and the mitotic index, based on them being realised the classification of Fletcher in the 4 risk categories mentioned above. In our group all the local advanced or metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumors, regardless of their location, were classified in the group of high risk for the malignant behavior. The gastric location and the epithelioid type were positive prognostic factors, and the complete resection of the tumor, an other important positive prognostic feature, was possible in about 80% of the cases, probably because the gastrointestinal stromal tumors in our study were diagnosed in less advanced evolutive situations, only about one third being metastatic and about 14% being locally advanced at the time of diagnose. The association with other neoplasias was in our cases insignificant, only 5% of the patients presenting concomitant malignant digestive tumors and 7.6% intraabdominal benign tumors. Gastrointestinal stromal tumors remain a challenge for the medical staff, regarding their diagnose and therapeutical management, the stratification of the

  6. Risk Factors for Brachial Plexus Birth Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louden, Emily; Marcotte, Michael; Mehlman, Charles; Lippert, William; Huang, Bin; Paulson, Andrea

    2018-01-01

    Over the course of decades, the incidence of brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI) has increased despite advances in healthcare which would seem to assist in decreasing the rate. The aim of this study is to identify previously unknown risk factors for BPBI and the risk factors with potential to guide preventative measures. A case control study of 52 mothers who had delivered a child with a BPBI injury and 132 mothers who had delivered without BPBI injury was conducted. Univariate, multivariable and logistic regressions identified risk factors and their combinations. The odds of BPBI were 2.5 times higher when oxytocin was used and 3.7 times higher when tachysystole occurred. The odds of BPBI injury are increased when tachysystole and oxytocin occur during the mother’s labor. Logistic regression identified a higher risk for BPBI when more than three of the following variables (>30 lbs gained during the pregnancy, stage 2 labor >61.5 min, mother’s age >26.4 years, tachysystole, or fetal malpresentation) were present in any combination. PMID:29596309

  7. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connell, Paul P; Keane, Pearse A; O'Neill, Evelyn C; Altaie, Rasha W; Loane, Edward; Neelam, Kumari; Nolan, John M; Beatty, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  8. Risk Factors for Age-Related Maculopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul P. Connell

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Age-related maculopathy (ARM is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  9. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Connell, Paul P

    2012-02-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715\\/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  10. Risk Factors for Brachial Plexus Birth Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Louden

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Over the course of decades, the incidence of brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI has increased despite advances in healthcare which would seem to assist in decreasing the rate. The aim of this study is to identify previously unknown risk factors for BPBI and the risk factors with potential to guide preventative measures. A case control study of 52 mothers who had delivered a child with a BPBI injury and 132 mothers who had delivered without BPBI injury was conducted. Univariate, multivariable and logistic regressions identified risk factors and their combinations. The odds of BPBI were 2.5 times higher when oxytocin was used and 3.7 times higher when tachysystole occurred. The odds of BPBI injury are increased when tachysystole and oxytocin occur during the mother’s labor. Logistic regression identified a higher risk for BPBI when more than three of the following variables (>30 lbs gained during the pregnancy, stage 2 labor >61.5 min, mother’s age >26.4 years, tachysystole, or fetal malpresentation were present in any combination.

  11. Psychosocial factors predicting severity of depression among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background and Objectives: Depression as major psychological sequelea of the HIV/AIDS infection has continued to attract investigation. With few studies in Nigeria, it is unclear whether levels of perceived stigma, sexual risk behaviors, and anticipated discrimination are differentially associated with severity of depression.

  12. Identifying perinatal risk factors for infant maltreatment: an ecological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hallisey Elaine J

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Child maltreatment and its consequences are a persistent problem throughout the world. Public health workers, human services officials, and others are interested in new and efficient ways to determine which geographic areas to target for intervention programs and resources. To improve assessment efforts, selected perinatal factors were examined, both individually and in various combinations, to determine if they are associated with increased risk of infant maltreatment. State of Georgia birth records and abuse and neglect data were analyzed using an area-based, ecological approach with the census tract as a surrogate for the community. Cartographic visualization suggested some correlation exists between risk factors and child maltreatment, so bivariate and multivariate regression were performed. The presence of spatial autocorrelation precluded the use of traditional ordinary least squares regression, therefore a spatial regression model coupled with maximum likelihood estimation was employed. Results Results indicate that all individual factors or their combinations are significantly associated with increased risk of infant maltreatment. The set of perinatal risk factors that best predicts infant maltreatment rates are: mother smoked during pregnancy, families with three or more siblings, maternal age less than 20 years, births to unmarried mothers, Medicaid beneficiaries, and inadequate prenatal care. Conclusion This model enables public health to take a proactive stance, to reasonably predict areas where poor outcomes are likely to occur, and to therefore more efficiently allocate resources. U.S. states that routinely collect the variables the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS defines for birth certificates can easily identify areas that are at high risk for infant maltreatment. The authors recommend that agencies charged with reducing child maltreatment target communities that demonstrate the perinatal risks

  13. Breast cancer epidemiology and risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broeders, M. J. M.; Verbeek, A. L. M.

    1997-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common malignancy among women in the Western society. Over the past decades it has become apparent that breast cancer incidence rates are increasing steadily, whereas the mortality rates for breast cancer have remained relatively constant. Information through the media on this rising number of cases has increased breast health awareness but has also introduced anxiety in the female population. This combination of factors has made the need for prevention of breast cancer an urgent matter. Breast cancer does not seem to be a single disease entity. A specific etiologic factor may therefore have more influence on one form may therefore have more influence on one form of breast cancer than another. So far though, as shown in their summary of current knowledge on established and dubious risk factors, no risk factors have been identified that can explain a major part of the incidence. Efforts to identify other ways for primary prevention have also been discouraging, even though breast cancer is one of the most investigated tumours world-wide. Thus, at this point i time, the most important strategy to reduce breast cancer mortality is early detection through individual counselling and organised breast screening programs. The recent isolation of breast cancer susceptibility genes may introduce new ways to reduce the risk of breast cancer in a small subset of women

  14. Recurrent Shoulder Dystocia: Risk Factors and Counseling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurewitsch Allen, Edith D

    2016-12-01

    A prior history of delivery complicated by shoulder dystocia confers a 6-fold to nearly 30-fold increased risk of shoulder dystocia recurrence in a subsequent vaginal delivery, with most reported rates between 12% and 17%. Whereas prevention of shoulder dystocia in the general population is neither feasible nor cost-effective, directing intervention efforts at the particular subgroup of women with a prior history of shoulder dystocia has merit. Potentially modifiable risk factors and individualized management strategies that may reduce shoulder dystocia recurrence and its associated significant morbidities are reviewed.

  15. Risk factors for adolescents' attempted suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Mogens; Poulsen, Henrik Day; Nielsen, Anne

    was also found among adolescents who had psychiatric disorder or a physical handicap, those who had been sentenced, were addicted to drugs, or had unstable education and unemployment records. A common feature of these significant risk factors seemed to be stigmatisation or social exclusion......This paper has been submitted to a journal for consideration, so please do not quote without permission. Adolescents' first-time suicide attempt tends to be characterized by parental psychiatric disorder or suicidal behaviour, family violence, especially child abuse and neglect. An increased risk...

  16. Risk factors for antenatal depression, postnatal depression and parenting stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milgrom Jeannette

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Given that the prevalence of antenatal and postnatal depression is high, with estimates around 13%, and the consequences serious, efforts have been made to identify risk factors to assist in prevention, identification and treatment. Most risk factors associated with postnatal depression have been well researched, whereas predictors of antenatal depression have been less researched. Risk factors associated with early parenting stress have not been widely researched, despite the strong link with depression. The aim of this study was to further elucidate which of some previously identified risk factors are most predictive of three outcome measures: antenatal depression, postnatal depression and parenting stress and to examine the relationship between them. Methods Primipara and multiparae women were recruited antenatally from two major hoitals as part of the beyondblue National Postnatal Depression Program 1. In this subsidiary study, 367 women completed an additional large battery of validated questionnaires to identify risk factors in the antenatal period at 26–32 weeks gestation. A subsample of these women (N = 161 also completed questionnaires at 10–12 weeks postnatally. Depression level was measured by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI. Results Regression analyses identified significant risk factors for the three outcome measures. (1. Significant predictors for antenatal depression: low self-esteem, antenatal anxiety, low social support, negative cognitive style, major life events, low income and history of abuse. (2. Significant predictors for postnatal depression: antenatal depression and a history of depression while also controlling for concurrent parenting stress, which was a significant variable. Antenatal depression was identified as a mediator between seven of the risk factors and postnatal depression. (3. Postnatal depression was the only significant predictor for parenting stress and also acted as a mediator

  17. Risk factors for antenatal depression, postnatal depression and parenting stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leigh, Bronwyn; Milgrom, Jeannette

    2008-04-16

    Given that the prevalence of antenatal and postnatal depression is high, with estimates around 13%, and the consequences serious, efforts have been made to identify risk factors to assist in prevention, identification and treatment. Most risk factors associated with postnatal depression have been well researched, whereas predictors of antenatal depression have been less researched. Risk factors associated with early parenting stress have not been widely researched, despite the strong link with depression. The aim of this study was to further elucidate which of some previously identified risk factors are most predictive of three outcome measures: antenatal depression, postnatal depression and parenting stress and to examine the relationship between them. Primipara and multiparae women were recruited antenatally from two major hoitals as part of the beyondblue National Postnatal Depression Program 1. In this subsidiary study, 367 women completed an additional large battery of validated questionnaires to identify risk factors in the antenatal period at 26-32 weeks gestation. A subsample of these women (N = 161) also completed questionnaires at 10-12 weeks postnatally. Depression level was measured by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). Regression analyses identified significant risk factors for the three outcome measures. (1). Significant predictors for antenatal depression: low self-esteem, antenatal anxiety, low social support, negative cognitive style, major life events, low income and history of abuse. (2). Significant predictors for postnatal depression: antenatal depression and a history of depression while also controlling for concurrent parenting stress, which was a significant variable. Antenatal depression was identified as a mediator between seven of the risk factors and postnatal depression. (3). Postnatal depression was the only significant predictor for parenting stress and also acted as a mediator for other risk factors. Risk factor profiles for

  18. Timed up and go test combined with self-rated multifactorial questionnaire on falls risk and sociodemographic factors predicts falls among community-dwelling older adults better than the timed up and go test on its own.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Azianah; Singh, Devinder Kaur Ajit; Shahar, Suzana; Omar, Mohd Azahadi

    2017-01-01

    Early detection of falls risk among older adults using simple tools may assist in fall prevention strategies. The aim of this study was to identify the best parameters associated with previous falls, either the timed up and go (TUG) test combined with sociodemographic factors and a self-rated multifactorial questionnaire (SRMQ) on falls risk or the TUG on its own. Falls risk was determined based on parameters associated with previous falls. This was a retrospective cohort study. The study was conducted in a community setting. The participants were 1,086 community-dwelling older adults, with mean age of 69.6±5.6 years. Participants were categorized into fallers and nonfallers based on their history of falls in the past 12 months. Participants' sociodemographic data was taken, and SRMQ consisting of five falls-related questions was administered. Participants performed the TUG test twice, and the mean was taken as the result. A total of 161 participants were categorized as fallers (14.8%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the model ( χ 2 (6)=61.0, p factors (gender, cataract/glaucoma and joint pain), as well as the SRMQ items "previous falls history" (Q1) and "worried of falls" (Q5), was more robust in terms of falls risk association compared to that with TUG on its own ( χ 2 (1)=10.3, p factors and SRMQ with TUG is more favorable as an initial falls risk screening tool among community-dwelling older adults. Subsequently, further comprehensive falls risk assessment may be performed in clinical settings to identify the specific impairments for effective management.

  19. Extensions of the Rosner-Colditz breast cancer prediction model to include older women and type-specific predicted risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Robert J; Colditz, Graham A; Tamimi, Rulla M; Chen, Wendy Y; Hankinson, Susan E; Willett, Walter W; Rosner, Bernard

    2017-08-01

    A breast cancer risk prediction rule previously developed by Rosner and Colditz has reasonable predictive ability. We developed a re-fitted version of this model, based on more than twice as many cases now including women up to age 85, and further extended it to a model that distinguished risk factor prediction of tumors with different estrogen/progesterone receptor status. We compared the calibration and discriminatory ability of the original, the re-fitted, and the type-specific models. Evaluation used data from the Nurses' Health Study during the period 1980-2008, when 4384 incident invasive breast cancers occurred over 1.5 million person-years. Model development used two-thirds of study subjects and validation used one-third. Predicted risks in the validation sample from the original and re-fitted models were highly correlated (ρ = 0.93), but several parameters, notably those related to use of menopausal hormone therapy and age, had different estimates. The re-fitted model was well-calibrated and had an overall C-statistic of 0.65. The extended, type-specific model identified several risk factors with varying associations with occurrence of tumors of different receptor status. However, this extended model relative to the prediction of any breast cancer did not meaningfully reclassify women who developed breast cancer to higher risk categories, nor women remaining cancer free to lower risk categories. The re-fitted Rosner-Colditz model has applicability to risk prediction in women up to age 85, and its discrimination is not improved by consideration of varying associations across tumor subtypes.

  20. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  1. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  2. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  3. Utilizing Dental Electronic Health Records Data to Predict Risk for Periodontal Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Vyawahare, Karnali; Darade, Pratiksha; Paranjape, Rhucha

    2015-01-01

    Periodontal disease is a major cause for tooth loss and adversely affects individuals' oral health and quality of life. Research shows its potential association with systemic diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and social habits such as smoking. This study explores mining potential risk factors from dental electronic health records to predict and display patients' contextualized risk for periodontal disease. We retrieved relevant risk factors from structured and unstructured data on 2,370 patients who underwent comprehensive oral examinations at the Indiana University School of Dentistry, Indianapolis, IN, USA. Predicting overall risk and displaying relationships between risk factors and their influence on the patient's oral and general health can be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians at the point of care.

  4. Online gaming and risks predict cyberbullying perpetration and victimization in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Fong-Ching; Chiu, Chiung-Hui; Miao, Nae-Fang; Chen, Ping-Hung; Lee, Ching-Mei; Huang, Tzu-Fu; Pan, Yun-Chieh

    2015-02-01

    The present study examined factors associated with the emergence and cessation of youth cyberbullying and victimization in Taiwan. A total of 2,315 students from 26 high schools were assessed in the 10th grade, with follow-up performed in the 11th grade. Self-administered questionnaires were collected in 2010 and 2011. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to examine the factors. Multivariate analysis results indicated that higher levels of risk factors (online game use, exposure to violence in media, internet risk behaviors, cyber/school bullying experiences) in the 10th grade coupled with an increase in risk factors from grades 10 to 11 could be used to predict the emergence of cyberbullying perpetration/victimization. In contrast, lower levels of risk factors in the 10th grade and higher levels of protective factors coupled with a decrease in risk factors predicted the cessation of cyberbullying perpetration/victimization. Online game use, exposure to violence in media, Internet risk behaviors, and cyber/school bullying experiences can be used to predict the emergence and cessation of youth cyberbullying perpetration and victimization.

  5. Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease: analysis of previously proposed risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Harlak

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease is a source of one of the most common surgical problems among young adults. While male gender, obesity, occupations requiring sitting, deep natal clefts, excessive body hair, poor body hygiene and excessive sweating are described as the main risk factors for this disease, most of these need to be verified with a clinical trial. The present study aimed to evaluate the value and effect of these factors on pilonidal disease. METHOD: Previously proposed main risk factors were evaluated in a prospective case control study that included 587 patients with pilonidal disease and 2,780 healthy control patients. RESULTS: Stiffness of body hair, number of baths and time spent seated per day were the three most predictive risk factors. Adjusted odds ratios were 9.23, 6.33 and 4.03, respectively (p<0.001. With an adjusted odds ratio of 1.3 (p<.001, body mass index was another risk factor. Family history was not statistically different between the groups and there was no specific occupation associated with the disease. CONCLUSIONS: Hairy people who sit down for more than six hours a day and those who take a bath two or less times per week are at a 219-fold increased risk for sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease than those without these risk factors. For people with a great deal of hair, there is a greater need for them to clean their intergluteal sulcus. People who engage in work that requires sitting in a seat for long periods of time should choose more comfortable seats and should also try to stand whenever possible.

  6. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography

    OpenAIRE

    Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D.; Kofman, Jonathan; McIlroy, William E.

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed w...

  7. Multimethod prediction of child abuse risk in an at-risk sample of male intimate partner violence offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Christina M; Gracia, Enrique; Lila, Marisol

    2016-10-01

    The vast majority of research on child abuse potential has concentrated on women demonstrating varying levels of risk of perpetrating physical child abuse. In contrast, the current study considered factors predictive of physical child abuse potential in a group of 70 male intimate partner violence offenders, a group that would represent a likely high risk group. Elements of Social Information Processing theory were evaluated, including pre-existing schemas of empathy, anger, and attitudes approving of parent-child aggression considered as potential moderators of negative attributions of child behavior. To lend methodological rigor, the study also utilized multiple measures and multiple methods, including analog tasks, to predict child abuse risk. Contrary to expectations, findings did not support the role of anger independently predicting child abuse risk in this sample of men. However, preexisting beliefs approving of parent-child aggression, lower empathy, and more negative child behavior attributions independently predicted abuse potential; in addition, greater anger, poorer empathy, and more favorable attitudes toward parent-child aggression also exacerbated men's negative child attributions to further elevate their child abuse risk. Future work is encouraged to consider how factors commonly considered in women parallel or diverge from those observed to elevate child abuse risk in men of varying levels of risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Risk factors for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingre, Caroline; Roos, Per M; Piehl, Fredrik; Kamel, Freya; Fang, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is the most common motor neuron disease. It is typically fatal within 2–5 years of symptom onset. The incidence of ALS is largely uniform across most parts of the world, but an increasing ALS incidence during the last decades has been suggested. Although recent genetic studies have substantially improved our understanding of the causes of ALS, especially familial ALS, an important role of non-genetic factors in ALS is recognized and needs further study. In this review, we briefly discuss several major genetic contributors to ALS identified to date, followed by a more focused discussion on the most commonly examined non-genetic risk factors for ALS. We first review factors related to lifestyle choices, including smoking, intake of antioxidants, physical fitness, body mass index, and physical exercise, followed by factors related to occupational and environmental exposures, including electromagnetic fields, metals, pesticides, β-methylamino-L-alanine, and viral infection. Potential links between ALS and other medical conditions, including head trauma, metabolic diseases, cancer, and inflammatory diseases, are also discussed. Finally, we outline several future directions aiming to more efficiently examine the role of non-genetic risk factors in ALS. PMID:25709501

  9. Does the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool Predict Discharge Disposition After Joint Replacement?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Viktor J.; Gromov, Kirill; Lebrun, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Payers of health services and policymakers place a major focus on cost containment in health care. Studies have shown that early planning of discharge is essential in reducing length of stay and achieving financial benefit; tools that can help predict discharge disposition would...... populations is unknown. A low RAPT score is reported to indicate a high risk of needing any form of inpatient rehabilitation after TJA, including short-term nursing facilities. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: This study attempts (1) to assess predictive accuracy of the RAPT on US patients undergoing total hip and knee....... Based on our findings, the risk categories in our populations should be high risk intermediate risk 7 to 10, and low risk > 10. CONCLUSIONS: The RAPT accurately predicted discharge disposition for high- and low-risk patients in our cohort. Based on our data, intermediate-risk patients should...

  10. Time trends in osteoporosis risk factor profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Jakob Præst; Hyldstrup, Lars; Jensen, Jens-Erik Beck

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this article was to identify prevalent osteoporosis risk factors, medications and comorbidities associated with bone mineral density (BMD). Furthermore to evaluate changes in risk factor profiles over 12 years. 6285 women consecutively referred to an osteoporosis specialist clinic were...... was established in a real-life setting. The prevalence of osteoporosis and proportion of patient's having comorbidity's associated with osteoporosis were increasing during the inclusion period (start 23.8 %, end 29.7 %). Increasing age (OR = 1.05), current smoking (OR = 1.18), estrogen deficiency (OR = 1.......7), hyperthyroidism (OR = 1.5), previous major osteoporotic fracture (OR = 1.7), former osteoporosis treatment (OR = 3.5), higher BMI (OR = 0.87), use of calcium supplementation (OR = 1.2), high exercise level (OR = 0.7), and use of thiazide diuretics (OR = 0.7) were identified as predictors of osteoporosis by DXA...

  11. Skin carcinoma and occupational risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linares Fernandez, Tomasa Maria; Correa Lozano, Zoila; Ibarra Fernandez de la Vega, Enrique Jose; Bonet Gorbea Mariano

    2014-01-01

    To identify the relative contribution of different occupational risk factors associated with the occurrence of skin cancer in the provinces of Havana City and Havana, Cuba , in 2006-2007. It was designed a case-control study of hospital base that included 112 cases of non-melanoma skin cancer and 448 witnesses, following the inclusion-exclusion criteria preset. We considered the totality of patients diagnosed with basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell histological study of skin biopsy or surgical excision. Risk factors with possible association with the disease were studied, such as sun exposure, ionizing and non-ionizing radiations and a wide range of chemical and biological substances potentially carcinogenic

  12. PREDICTION OF STRESS CONCENTRATION FACTORS IN

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES OBE

    consider the effect of brace spacing on strengths of tubular K joints without consideration of same effect on square section K Joints. This lack of studies design strengths of gapped square section K joints makes availability of information on stress concentration factors in same joints scarce. However, information on 'Hot Spot' ...

  13. Prognostic and predictive factors in colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolocan, A; Ion, D; Ciocan, D N; Paduraru, D N

    2012-01-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is an important public health problem; it is a leading cause of cancer mortality in the industrialized world, second to lung cancer: each year there are nearly one million new cases of CRC diagnosed worldwide and half a million deaths (1). This review aims to summarise the most important currently available markers for CRC that provide prognostic or predictive information. Amongst others, it covers serum markers such as CEA and CA19-9, markers expressed by tumour tissues, such as thymidylate synthase, and also the expression/loss of expression of certain oncogenes and tumour suppressor genes such as K-ras and p53. The prognostic value of genomic instability, angiogenesis and proliferative indices, such as the apoptotic index, are discussed. The advent of new therapies created the pathway for a personalized approach of the patient. This will take into consideration the complex genetic mechanisms involved in tumorigenesis, besides the classical clinical and pathological stagings. The growing number of therapeutic agents and known molecular targets in oncology lead to a compulsory study of the clinical use of biomarkers with role in improving response and survival, as well as in reducing toxicity and establishing economic stability. The potential predictive and prognostic biomarkers which have arisen from the study of the genetic basis of colorectal cancer and their therapeutical significance are discussed. RevistaChirurgia.

  14. Nutritional risk factors for postmenopausal osteoporosis

    OpenAIRE

    Olfa Berriche; Amrouche Chiraz; Rym Ben Othman; Hamdi Souheila; Ines Lahmer; Chaabani Wafa; Imen Sebai; Haifa Sfar; Feten Mahjoub; Henda Jamoussi

    2017-01-01

    Background: Osteoporosis is a bone disease that combines both a decrease in bone density and its internal architecture changes. Nutrition is one of the major determinants of osteoporosis. Aim: The purpose of our study was to identify nutritional risk factors of osteoporosis of two groups of osteoporotic women and witnesses. Methods: We conducted a comparative cross-sectional study including 60 postmenopausal women and screening for osteoporosis by a bone densitometry, recruited the outp...

  15. Risk factors for postpartum urinary incontinence

    OpenAIRE

    Lígia da Silva Leroy; Adélia Lúcio; Maria Helena Baena de Moraes Lopes

    2016-01-01

    Abstract OBJECTIVE: To investigate the risk factors for postpartum urinary incontinence (UI) and its characteristics. METHOD: This was a case-control study with 344 puerperal women (77 cases and 267 controls) with up to 90 days postpartum. In a single session, participants were given a questionnaire with sociodemographic and clinical data and two others that assessed urine leakage, leakage situations, and type of UI. RESULTS: Stress UI was present in 45.5% of the women, incidents of urine...

  16. Longitudinal Risk Factors for Cyberbullying in Adolescence

    OpenAIRE

    Sticca, Fabio; Ruggieri, Sabrina; Alsaker, Françoise; Perren, Sonja

    2013-01-01

    Cyberbullying has emerged as a new form of antisocial behaviour in the context of online communication over the last decade. The present study investigates potential longitudinal risk factors for cyberbullying. A total of 835 Swiss seventh graders participated in a short-term longitudinal study (two assessments 6 months apart). Students reported on the frequency of cyberbullying, traditional bullying, rule-breaking behaviour, cybervictimisation, traditional victimisation, and frequency of onl...

  17. Epidemiology and risk factors for drug allergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thong, Bernard Y-H; Tan, Teck-Choon

    2011-05-01

    The aim of this review was to describe the current evidence-based knowledge of the epidemiology, prevalence, incidence, risk factors and genetic associations of drug allergy. Articles published between 1966 and 2010 were identified in MEDLINE using the key words adult, adverse drug reaction reporting systems, age factors, anaphylactoid, anaphylaxis, anaesthetics, antibiotics, child, drug allergy, drug eruptions, ethnic groups, hypersensitivity, neuromuscular depolarizing agents, neuromuscular nondepolarizing agents, sex factors, Stevens Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis. Additional studies were identified from article reference lists. Relevant, peer-reviewed original research articles, case series and reviews were considered for review. Current epidemiological studies on adverse drug reactions (ADRs) have used different definitions for ADR-related terminology, often do not differentiate immunologically and non-immunologically mediated drug hypersensitivity, study different study populations (different ethnicities, inpatients or outpatients, adults or children), utilize different methodologies (spontaneous vs. non-spontaneous reporting, cohort vs. case-control studies), different methods of assessing drug imputability and different methods of data analyses. Potentially life-threatening severe cutaneous adverse reactions (SCAR) are associated with a high risk of morbidity and mortality. HLA associations for SCAR associated with allopurinol, carbamazepine and abacavir have been reported with the potential for clinical use in screening prior to prescription. Identification of risk factors for drug allergy and appropriate genetic screening of at-risk ethnic groups may improve the outcomes of drug-specific SCAR. Research and collaboration are necessary for the generation of clinically-relevant, translational pharmacoepidemiological and pharmacogenomic knowledge, and success of health outcomes research and policies on drug allergies. © 2011 The Authors

  18. Studying risk factors associated with Human Leptospirosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramachandra Kamath

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Leptospirosis is one of the most under diagnosed and underreported disease in both developed and developing countries including India. It is established that environmental conditions and occupational habit of the individuals put them at risk of acquiring disease, which varies from community to community. Various seroprevalence studies across the world have documented emerging situation of this neglected tropical disease, but limited have probed to identify the risk factors, especially in India. Objectives: The objective of this study was to identify the environmental and occupational risk factors associated with the disease in Udupi District. Materials and Methods: This population-based case-control study was carried out in Udupi, a District in Southern India from April 2012 until August 2012. Udupi is considered to be endemic for Leptospirosis and reported 116 confirmed cases in the year 2011. Seventy of 116 laboratory confirmed cases and 140 sex matched neighborhood healthy controls participated in the study. A predesigned, semi-structured and validated questionnaire was used for data collection through house to house visit and observations were noted about environmental conditions. Univariate analysis followed by multivariate analysis (back ward conditional logistic regression was performed by using STATA version 9.2 (StataCorp, College Station, TX, USA to identify potential risk factors. Results: Occupational factors such as outdoor activities (matched odds ratio [OR] of 3.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-13.0, presence of cut or wound at body parts during work (matched OR: 4.88, CI: 1.83-13.02 and environmental factors such as contact with rodents through using the food materials ate by rat (matched OR: 4.29, CI: 1.45-12.73 and contact with soil or water contaminated with urine of rat (matched OR: 4.58, CI: 1.43-14.67 were the risk factors identified to be associated with disease. Conclusion: Leptospirosis is still

  19. Risk Factors for Hemorrhoids on Screening Colonoscopy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne F Peery

    Full Text Available Constipation, a low fiber diet, sedentary lifestyle and gravidity are commonly assumed to increase the risk of hemorrhoids. However, evidence regarding these factors is limited. We examined the association between commonly cited risk factors and the prevalence of hemorrhoids.We performed a cross sectional study of participants who underwent a colonoscopy in a colorectal adenoma prevention trial and who had a detailed assessment of bowel habits, diet and activity. The presence of hemorrhoids was extracted from the subjects' colonoscopy reports. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals while adjusting for age and sex.The study included 2,813 participants. Of these, 1,074 had hemorrhoids recorded. Constipation was associated with an increased prevalence of hemorrhoids (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.11, 1.86. Of the fiber subtypes, high grain fiber intake was associated with a reduced risk (OR for quartile 4 versus quartile 1 = 0.78, 95% CI 0.62, 0.98. We found no association when comparing gravid and nulligravida women (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.62-1.40. Sedentary behavior was associated with a reduced risk (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.98, but not physical activity (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.66-1.03. Neither being overweight nor obese was associated with the presence of hemorrhoids (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.72-1.09 and OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.70-1.06.Constipation is associated with an increased risk of hemorrhoids. Gravidity and physical activity do not appear to be associated. High grain fiber intake and sedentary behavior are associated with a decreased risk of hemorrhoids.

  20. Risk Factors for Hemorrhoids on Screening Colonoscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peery, Anne F; Sandler, Robert S; Galanko, Joseph A; Bresalier, Robert S; Figueiredo, Jane C; Ahnen, Dennis J; Barry, Elizabeth L; Baron, John A

    2015-01-01

    Constipation, a low fiber diet, sedentary lifestyle and gravidity are commonly assumed to increase the risk of hemorrhoids. However, evidence regarding these factors is limited. We examined the association between commonly cited risk factors and the prevalence of hemorrhoids. We performed a cross sectional study of participants who underwent a colonoscopy in a colorectal adenoma prevention trial and who had a detailed assessment of bowel habits, diet and activity. The presence of hemorrhoids was extracted from the subjects' colonoscopy reports. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals while adjusting for age and sex. The study included 2,813 participants. Of these, 1,074 had hemorrhoids recorded. Constipation was associated with an increased prevalence of hemorrhoids (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.11, 1.86). Of the fiber subtypes, high grain fiber intake was associated with a reduced risk (OR for quartile 4 versus quartile 1 = 0.78, 95% CI 0.62, 0.98). We found no association when comparing gravid and nulligravida women (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.62-1.40). Sedentary behavior was associated with a reduced risk (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.98), but not physical activity (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.66-1.03). Neither being overweight nor obese was associated with the presence of hemorrhoids (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.72-1.09 and OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.70-1.06). Constipation is associated with an increased risk of hemorrhoids. Gravidity and physical activity do not appear to be associated. High grain fiber intake and sedentary behavior are associated with a decreased risk of hemorrhoids.

  1. Risk factors for fractures in the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacqmin-Gadda, H; Fourrier, A; Commenges, D; Dartigues, J F

    1998-07-01

    We report the results of a 5-year prospective cohort study of risk factors for fractures, including drinking fluoridated water, in a cohort of 3,216 men and women aged 65 years and older. We studied risk factors for hip fracture and fractures at other locations separately. We found a higher risk of hip fractures for subjects exposed to fluorine concentrations over 0.11 mg per liter but without a dose-effect relation (odds ratio (OR) = 3.25 for a concentration of 0.11-0.25 mg per liter; OR = 2.43 for > or = 0.25 mg per liter]. For higher thresholds (0.7 and 1 mg per liter), however, the OR was less than 1. We found no association between fluorine and non-hip fractures. Non-hip fractures were associated with polymedication rather than with specific drug use, whereas fracture was associated with polymedication and use of anxiolytic and antidepressive drugs. Subjects drinking spirits every day were more likely to have hip fractures. Tobacco consumption increased the risk for non-hip fractures.

  2. Maternal Risk Factors for Neonatal Necrotizing Enterocolitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    March, Melissa I.; Gupta, Munish; Modest, Anna M.; Wu, Lily; Hacker, Michele R.; Martin, Camilia R.; Rana, Sarosh

    2015-01-01

    Objective This study aimed to investigate the relationship between maternal hypertensive disease and other risk factors and the neonatal development of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). Methods This was a retrospective case control study of infants with NEC from 2008 to 2012. The primary exposure of interest was maternal hypertensive disease, which has been hypothesized to put infants at risk for NEC. Other variables collected included demographics, pregnancy complications, medications, and neonatal hospital course. Data was abstracted from medical records. Results 28 cases of singleton neonates with NEC and 81 matched controls were identified and analyzed. There was no significant difference in the primary outcome. Fetuses with an antenatal diagnosis of growth restriction were more likely to develop NEC (p=0.008). Infants with NEC had lower median birth weight than infants without NEC (p=0.009). Infants with NEC had more late-onset sepsis (p=0.01) and mortality before discharge (p=0.001). Conclusions The factors identified by this case-control study that increased the risk of neonatal NEC included intrauterine growth restriction and lower neonatal birth weight. The primary exposure, hypertensive disease, did not show a significantly increased risk of neonatal NEC, however there was a nearly two-fold difference observed. Our study was underpowered to detect the observed difference. PMID:25162307

  3. Fall risk factors in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, P; Hildebrand, K

    2000-08-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by tremor, rigidity, bradykinesia, gait disturbance, and postural instability. Patients with PD suffer frequent falls, yet little research has been done to identify risks specific to PD patients. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with falls for PD patients through the collection of demographic, environmental, and medical information as well as fall diaries completed during a 3-month period. Patients with a diagnosis of idiopathic PD, with and without falls, were included in the study provided they could stand and walk and had no other condition that could predispose them to falls. Of the 118 participants, 59% reported one or more falls. A total of 237 falls were reported. Duration and severity of PD symptoms, particularly freezing, involuntary movements, and walking and postural difficulties, were significantly associated with an increased risk of falls. Other factors associated with falls were postural hypotension and daily intake of alcohol. Forty percent of falls resulted in injury, but serious injury was rare. The findings have implications for reducing the risk of falls through patient education.

  4. Risk factors for developing diabetic foot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Estela Willrich Boell

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the present study is to identify the risk factors for developing diabetic foot. A cross-sectional study, with a convenience sample, developed with 70 individuals with diabetes mellitus (DM, registered in three basic health units in the municipality of Florianópolis/SC, Brazil, in the period from November 2010 to May 2011. Biometric data was collected regarding their sociodemographic, health and illness conditions. An assessment of the feet was also carried out. The average participant age was 66.17 years and time with diagnosed disease was under ten years (61.42%. The following risk factors were identified: advanced age; time of DM diagnosis; few years of schooling; overweight/obesity; inadequate diet; physical inactivity; inadequate metabolic control; lack of proper and specific foot care; and arterial hypertension. We conclude that the majority of the population presented one or more risk factors that favor the appearance of foot-related complications. doi: 10.5216/ree.v16i2.20460.

  5. Risk Factor and Comorbidity of Migraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woro Riyadina

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Migraine is a chronic daily headache which interfere a quality of life. The purpose of this research is to obtain the prevalence, risk factors, and comorbidity of migraine. Methods: A cross sectional study involving 4771 subjects in 5 villages in the district of Central Bogor, Bogor City 2011–2012. Data collection was performed using WHO STEPS (interview, measurement, physical examination, and laboratory test. Results: In this study, the migraine prevalence was 22.43%, with significant risk factors were sex, age, and stress (p < 0.05. Comorbidity of migraine was coronary heart diseases (p < 0.05. There was no significant correlation between migraine with marital status, level of education, smoking, hypertension, obesity, total cholesterol, LDL, HDL, trigliseride level, and diabetes mellitus (p > 0.05. Conclusions: Risk factors which have significant association with migraine are sex, age, and stress, whereas coronary heart disease existed as a comorbidity with migraine.

  6. Risk Factors for Dystocia in Pigtailed Macaques (Macaca nemestrina)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockinger, Diane E; Torrence, Anne E; Hukkanen, Renee R; Vogel, Keith W; Hotchkiss, Charlotte E; Ha, James C

    2011-01-01

    Dystocia (difficult labor) is an important component of the management of nonhuman primates and results in significant fetal and maternal morbidity and increased use of veterinary resources. Dystocias can arise from abnormalities of the maternal pelvis or fetus or uncoordinated uterine activity. Although risk factors for stillbirths have been established in nonhuman primates, risk factors for dystocias have not. The objective of this study was to determine maternal and fetal risk factors for dystocia in macaques. Retrospective data were collected from 83 pigtailed macaques (Macaca nemestrina) diagnosed with dystocia. The diagnosis of dystocia was made based on clinical or pathologic evidence. Maternal records of age, reproductive history, experimental history, clinical records, and fetal birth weight and any applicable fetal necropsy reports were reviewed. The gestational age of the fetus, the infant's birth weight, total previous births by the dam, and the proportions of both viable delivery (inverse effect) and surgical pregnancy interventions (direct effect) in the dam's history generated a model that maximized the experimental variance for predicting dystocia in the current pregnancy and explained 24% of the dystocia deliveries. The number of total previous births and proportion of previous cesarean sections accounted for the greatest effect. This model can identify individual dams within a colony that are at risk for dystocias and allow for changes in breeding colony management, more intense monitoring of dams at risk, or allocation of additional resources. PMID:21535929

  7. Joint modeling of genetically correlated diseases and functional annotations increases accuracy of polygenic risk prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiming Hu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of disease risk based on genetic factors is an important goal in human genetics research and precision medicine. Advanced prediction models will lead to more effective disease prevention and treatment strategies. Despite the identification of thousands of disease-associated genetic variants through genome-wide association studies (GWAS in the past decade, accuracy of genetic risk prediction remains moderate for most diseases, which is largely due to the challenges in both identifying all the functionally relevant variants and accurately estimating their effect sizes. In this work, we introduce PleioPred, a principled framework that leverages pleiotropy and functional annotations in genetic risk prediction for complex diseases. PleioPred uses GWAS summary statistics as its input, and jointly models multiple genetically correlated diseases and a variety of external information including linkage disequilibrium and diverse functional annotations to increase the accuracy of risk prediction. Through comprehensive simulations and real data analyses on Crohn's disease, celiac disease and type-II diabetes, we demonstrate that our approach can substantially increase the accuracy of polygenic risk prediction and risk population stratification, i.e. PleioPred can significantly better separate type-II diabetes patients with early and late onset ages, illustrating its potential clinical application. Furthermore, we show that the increment in prediction accuracy is significantly correlated with the genetic correlation between the predicted and jointly modeled diseases.

  8. Corneal Graft Rejection: Incidence and Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Baradaran-Rafii

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available

    PURPOSE: To determine the incidence and risk factors of late corneal graft rejection after penetrating keratoplasty (PKP. METHODS: Records of all patients who had undergone PKP from 2002 to 2004 without immunosuppressive therapy other than systemic steroids and with at least one year of follow up were reviewed. The role of possible risk factors such as demographic factors, other host factors, donor factors, indications for PKP as well as type of rejection were evaluated. RESULTS: During the study period, 295 PKPs were performed on 286 patients (176 male, 110 female. Mean age at the time of keratoplasty was 38±20 (range, 40 days to 90 years and mean follow up period was 20±10 (range 12-43 months. Graft rejection occurred in 94 eyes (31.8% at an average of 7.3±6 months (range, 20 days to 39 months after PKP. The most common type of rejection was endothelial (20.7%. Corneal vascularization, regrafting, anterior synechiae, irritating sutures, active inflammation, additional anterior segment procedures, history of trauma, uncontrolled glaucoma, prior graft rejection, recurrence of herpetic infection and eccentric grafting increased the rate of rejection. Patient age, donor size and bilateral transplantation had no significant influence on graft rejection. CONCLUSION: Significant risk factors for corneal graft rejection include

  9. Prevalence of undiagnosed cardiovascular risk factors and 10-year CVD risk in male steel industry workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Mellalieu, Stephen D; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

    2014-05-01

    To assess the prevalence of undiagnosed cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a cohort of male steelworkers in South Wales, UK. Male steel industry workers (n = 221) with no prior diagnosis of CVD or diabetes accepted a CVD risk assessment within the work environment. Demographic, anthropometric, family, and medical histories were all recorded and capillary blood samples obtained. The 10-year CVD risk was predicted using the QRISK2-2012 algorithm. Up to 81.5% of workers were either overweight or obese. More than 20% of workers were found to have diastolic hypertension, high total cholesterol, and/or a total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein ratio of six or more. Over one quarter of workers assessed had an increased 10-year CVD risk. Despite a physically demanding occupation, risk assessment in the workplace uncovered significant occult factors in CVD risk in a sample of male heavy industry workers.