WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk estimation prevalence

  1. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  2. Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

  3. Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Congdon

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care areas.

  4. Spatially interpolated disease prevalence estimation using collateral indicators of morbidity and ecological risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-10-14

    This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas.

  5. Comparison of Paper-and-Pencil versus Web Administration of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS): Risk Behavior Prevalence Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Danice K.; Brener, Nancy D.; Kann, Laura; Denniston, Maxine M.; McManus, Tim; Kyle, Tonja M.; Roberts, Alice M.; Flint, Katherine H.; Ross, James G.

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined whether paper-and-pencil and Web surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent risk behavior prevalence estimates. Data were from a methods study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in spring 2008. Intact classes of 9th- or 10th-grade students were assigned randomly to complete a…

  6. National and subnational hypertension prevalence estimates for the Republic of Ireland: better outcome and risk factor data are needed to produce better prevalence estimates.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Barron, Steve

    2014-01-10

    Hypertension is a global public health challenge. National prevalence estimates can conceal important differences in prevalence in subnational areas. This paper aims to develop a consistent set of national and subnational estimates of the prevalence of hypertension in a country with limited data for subnational areas.

  7. The estimated risk for coronary heart disease and prevalence of dyslipidemia among workers of information technology industries in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shao-Chi; Chien, Kuo-Liong; Tsai, Wei-I; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Chen, Ming-Fong

    2011-03-18

    Individuals working in information technology (IT) industries suffer from high work stress, possibly causing adverse impacts on their health. However, studies of cardiovascular risk factors among these workers are lacking. The aims of this study were to evaluate the estimated risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and prevalence of dyslipidemia among IT workers. A total of 941 employees from 11 IT companies were enrolled and the anthropometrics and serum lipid profiles were measured. The 10-year risk for CHD was calculated based on the Framingham risk score. Compared with lipid profiles in a representative sample (n=6589), IT workers had a significantly higher prevalence of obesity, hypercholesterolemia, low level of HDL-C, and high level of LDL-C in each age group. Their overall estimated 10-year risk for CHD was higher than the average risk of an age- and gender-matched population (2.91% vs. 2.79%, p=0.027). Working for more than 10h/day was associated with a higher estimated CHD risk (3.62% vs. 2.54%, p<0.01). A higher prevalence of hyperlipidemia was noted among IT workers. Their estimated 10-year CHD risk was also higher than average. More aggressive interventions to reduce the risk of CHD in this population are needed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Seliske

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. Methods A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS. The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400–700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1, and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2. Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Results Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor, and an additional small community (Chatham for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. Conclusions This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex

  9. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a middle-income country and estimated cost of a treatment strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Anne

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We assessed the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD in a middle-income country in rapid epidemiological transition and estimated direct costs for treating all individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, i.e. following the so-called "high risk strategy". Methods Survey of risk factors using an age- and sex-stratified random sample of the population of Seychelles aged 25–64 in 2004. Assessment of CVD risk and treatment modalities were in line with international guidelines. Costs are expressed as US$ per capita per year. Results 1255 persons took part in the survey (participation rate of 80.2%. Prevalence of main risk factors was: 39.6% for high blood pressure (≥140/90 mmHg or treatment of which 59% were under treatment; 24.2% for high cholesterol (≥6.2 mmol/l; 20.8% for low HDL-cholesterol (2 and 22.1% for the metabolic syndrome. Overall, 43% had HBP, high cholesterol or diabetes and substantially increased CVD risk. The cost for medications needed to treat all high-risk individuals amounted to US $45.6, i.e. $11.2 for high blood pressure, $3.8 for diabetes, and $30.6 for dyslipidemia (using generic drugs except for hypercholesterolemia. Cost for minimal follow-up medical care and laboratory tests amounted to $22.6. Conclusion High prevalence of major risk factors was found in a rapidly developing country and costs for treatment needed to reduce risk factors in all high-risk individuals exceeded resources generally available in low or middle income countries. Our findings emphasize the need for affordable cost-effective treatment strategies and the critical importance of population strategies aimed at reducing risk factors in the entire population.

  10. Size estimation, HIV prevalence and risk behaviours of female sex workers in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altaf, A.; Aga, A.; McKinizie, M.H.; Abbas, Q.; Jafri, S.B.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To provide size estimation and to determine risky behaviours and HIV prevalence among female sex workers in Pakistan, which has progressed from a low to concentrated level of HIV epidemic. Methods: A cross-sectional study (geographic mapping and integrated behavioural and biological survey-IBBS) was conducted between August 2005 to January 2006 in Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur. A detailed questionnaire and dry blood spot (DBS) specimen for HIV testing were collected by trained interviewers after informed consent. The study was ethically approved by review boards in Canada and Pakistan. Results: About 14,900 female sex workers were estimated to be functional in Sindh. A total of 1158 of them were interviewed for the study. Average age of sex workers was 27.4+- 6.7 years, and the majority 787 (67.9%) were married, and uneducated 764 (65.9%). Sindhi (26.4%) was the predominant ethnicity. Mean number of paid clients was 2.1+-1.2. Three workers were confirmed HIV positive (0.75%, 95 percent CI 0.2-2.2%) from Karachi. Condom use at last sexual act was highest (68%) among brothel-based workers from Karachi, and the lowest in Sukkur where only 1.3% street-based workers reported using a condom at last sexual act. Overall use of illicit drugs through injections was negligible. Conclusion: HIV prevalence among female sex workers in Sindh, Pakistan is low but risky behaviours are present. Well organised service delivery programmes can help promoting safer practices. (author)

  11. Questionnaire layout and wording influence prevalence and risk estimates of respiratory symptoms in a population cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekerljung, Linda; Rönmark, Eva; Lötvall, Jan; Wennergren, Göran; Torén, Kjell; Lundbäck, Bo

    2013-01-01

    Results of epidemiological studies are greatly influenced by the chosen methodology. The study aims to investigate how two frequently used questionnaires (Qs), with partly different layout, influence the prevalence of respiratory symptoms. A booklet containing two Qs, the Global Allergy and Asthma European Network Q and the Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden Q, was mailed to 30,000 subjects aged 16-75years in West Sweden; 62% responded. Sixteen questions were included in the analysis: seven identical between the Qs, four different in set-up and five with the same layout but different wording. Comparisons were made using differences in proportions, observed agreement and Kappa statistics.  Identical questions yielded similar prevalences with high observed agreement and kappa values. Questions with different set-up or differences in wording resulted in significantly different prevalences with lower observed agreement and kappa values. In general, the use of follow-up questions, excluding subjects answering no to the initial question, resulted in 2.9-6.7% units lower prevalence. The question set-up has great influences on epidemiological results, and specifically questions that are set up to be excluded based on a previous no answer leads to lower prevalence compared with detached questions. Therefore, Q layout and exact wording of questions has to be carefully considered when comparing studies. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  12. Estimation of the prevalence and distribution of HPV genotypes and identification of related risk factors among Turkish women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Kulhan

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study : The present study aims to estimate the prevalence and distribution of HPV genotypes and identify related risk factors among Turkish women. Material and methods : 11 624 Turkish women attending our gynaecological clinic and expressing a desire for access to cervical cancer screening were assessed during the years 2014–2016. Cervical specimens were collected and transported using the HC2 HPV DNA Collection Device (consisting of a cervical brush and digene Specimen Transport Medium. Results : Among these 11 624 individuals, positive HPV test results were obtained for 325 (2.79%, and negative results were observed for 11 299 (97.2%. The vast majority of patients were between the 3rd and 5th decades and the mean age of the patients was 44 ±9.12 (range 27–66. Among the HPV-positive women, 205 were positive for a single HPV type (205/325 = 63.1% of HPV infections; 205/11624 = 1.76% of all samples and 120 were positive for multiple types (120/325 = 36.9% of HPV infections; 120/11624 = 1.03% of all samples. The four most prevalent high-risk types were HPV 16, 31, 51 and 52, with frequencies of 11.25%, 7.83%, 6.06% and 3.16%, respectively. Conclusions : There appears to be geographic variation in the distribution of HPV genotypes. In this study, the four most prevalent high-risk types were HPV 16, 31, 51 and 52, with frequencies of 11.25%, 7.83%, 6.06% and 3.16%, respectively.

  13. Prevalence Estimates for Pharmacological Neuroenhancement in Austrian University Students: Its Relation to Health-Related Risk Attitude and the Framing Effect of Caffeine Tablets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Dietz

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Pharmacological neuroenhancement (PN is defined as the use of illicit or prescription drugs by healthy individuals for cognitive-enhancing purposes. The present study aimed (i to investigate whether including caffeine tablets in the definition of PN within a questionnaire increases the PN prevalence estimate (framing effect, (ii to investigate whether the health-related risk attitude is increased in students who use PN.Materials and methods: Two versions of a paper-and-pencil questionnaire (first version included caffeine tablets in the definition of PN, the second excluded caffeine tablets were distributed among university students at the University of Graz, Austria. The unrelated question model (UQM was used to estimate the 12-month PN prevalence and the German version of the 30-item Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT scale to assess the health-related risk attitude. Moreover, large-sample z-tests (α = 0.05 were performed for comparing the PN prevalence estimates of two groups.Results: Two thousand four hundred and eighty-nine questionnaires were distributed and 2,284 (91.8% questionnaires were included in analysis. The overall PN prevalence estimate for all students was 11.9%. One-tailed large-sample z-tests revealed that the PN estimate for students with higher health-related risk attitude was significantly higher compared to students with lower health-related risk attitude (15.6 vs. 8.5%; z = 2.65, p = 0.004. Furthermore, when caffeine tablets were included into the example of PN, the prevalence estimate of PN was significantly higher compared to the version without caffeine tablets (14.9 vs. 9.0%; z = 2.20, p = 0.014.Discussion: This study revealed that the PN prevalence estimate increases when caffeine tablets are included in the definition of PN. Therefore, future studies investigating the prevalence of, and predictors for, PN should be performed and interpreted with respect to potential framing effects. This study further

  14. The risk of perinatal hepatitis B virus transmission: hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg prevalence estimates for all world regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ott Jördis J

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background HBeAg presence in childbearing-age women is a major determinant of perinatal hepatitis B virus (HBV transmission. The risk of developing chronic HBV infection and liver disease is highest at young age. Our aim was to assess perinatal HBV transmission risk by means of estimating age- and region-specific HBeAg prevalence. Methods Based on observed HBeAg seroprevalence data obtained from a systematic literature review, we modeled HBeAg prevalence using an empirical Bayesian hierarchical model. Age- and region-specific estimates were generated for 1990 and 2005. Results Globally, highest HBeAg prevalence of over 50 % was found in 0–9 years old girls. At reproductive age, HBeAg prevalence was 20-50 %. Prevalence was highest in young females in East Asia in 1990 (78 %, the infection was less common in Sub-Saharan and North Africa. Regional differences in prevalence were smaller in 2005. There was an overall decrease in HBeAg between 1990 and 2005, which was strongest among girls in Oceania (23.3 % decline, South and South-East Asia (14 % decline. However, in these regions, prevalence remained high at 67 % among young females in 2005. Smaller decreases were observed in women at reproductive age, at which 24-32 % of all HBsAg-positive women were HBeAg-positive in 2005, with lowest prevalence in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and highest prevalence in Oceania and South-East Asia. Conclusions HBeAg estimates are crucial for understanding the epidemiology of HBV and for prioritizing implementation of WHO`s prevention recommendations for all infants to receive the first dose of hepatitis B vaccine within 24 hours of birth. Results will have importance as access to treatment for chronic HBV infection is expanded.

  15. Estimating the prevalence of infertility in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bushnik, Tracey; Cook, Jocelynn L.; Yuzpe, A. Albert; Tough, Suzanne; Collins, John

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND Over the past 10 years, there has been a significant increase in the use of assisted reproductive technologies in Canada, however, little is known about the overall prevalence of infertility in the population. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of current infertility in Canada according to three definitions of the risk of conception. METHODS Data from the infertility component of the 2009–2010 Canadian Community Health Survey were analyzed for married and common-law couples with a female partner aged 18–44. The three definitions of the risk of conception were derived sequentially starting with birth control use in the previous 12 months, adding reported sexual intercourse in the previous 12 months, then pregnancy intent. Prevalence and odds ratios of current infertility were estimated by selected characteristics. RESULTS Estimates of the prevalence of current infertility ranged from 11.5% (95% CI 10.2, 12.9) to 15.7% (95% CI 14.2, 17.4). Each estimate represented an increase in current infertility prevalence in Canada when compared with previous national estimates. Couples with lower parity (0 or 1 child) had significantly higher odds of experiencing current infertility when the female partner was aged 35–44 years versus 18–34 years. Lower odds of experiencing current infertility were observed for multiparous couples regardless of age group of the female partner, when compared with nulliparous couples. CONCLUSIONS The present study suggests that the prevalence of current infertility has increased since the last time it was measured in Canada, and is associated with the age of the female partner and parity. PMID:22258658

  16. Advantages of video questionnaire in estimating asthma prevalence and risk factors for school children: findings from an asthma survey in American Indian youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Fawn; Rhoades, Everett R; Tarpay, Martha; Eichner, June E

    2010-09-01

    The aims of the present study were to estimate the prevalence and risk factors of asthma among a sample of American Indian youth and to evaluate survey instruments used in determining asthma prevalence and risk factors. Three hundred and fifty-two adolescents aged 9 to 21 years enrolled in an Indian boarding school completed an asthma screening. The survey instruments were a written questionnaire and a video-illustrated questionnaire prepared from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC), school health records, and a health questionnaire. Participants also underwent spirometry testing. The prevalence of self-reported asthma varied from 12.7% to 13.4% depending upon the instrument used and the questions asked. A history of hay fever, respiratory infections, and family history of asthma were found to be risk factors for asthma by all instruments. Female gender and living on a reservation were significantly associated with asthma by some, but not all, instruments. Airway obstruction was highly associated with one asthma symptom (wheeze) shown in the video questionnaire. Associations for most risk factors with asthma were strongest for the video questionnaire. The prevalence of self-reported asthma among these American Indian youth was similar to rates reported for other ethnic groups. The video-based questionnaire may be the most sensitive tool for identifying individuals at risk for asthma.

  17. Violence and Drug Use in Rural Teens: National Prevalence Estimates from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Andrew O.; Mink, Michael D.; Harun, Nusrat; Moore, Charity G.; Martin, Amy B.; Bennett, Kevin J.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare national estimates of drug use and exposure to violence between rural and urban teens. Methods: Twenty-eight dependent variables from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey were used to compare violent activities, victimization, suicidal behavior, tobacco use, alcohol use, and illegal drug use…

  18. Toxocara infection in the United States: the relevance of poverty, geography and demography as risk factors, and implications for estimating county prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter; Lloyd, Patsy

    2011-02-01

    To estimate Toxocara infection rates by age, gender and ethnicity for US counties using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). After initial analysis to account for missing data, a binary regression model is applied to obtain relative risks of Toxocara infection for 20,396 survey subjects. The regression incorporates interplay between demographic attributes (age, ethnicity and gender), family poverty and geographic context (region, metropolitan status). Prevalence estimates for counties are then made, distinguishing between subpopulations in poverty and not in poverty. Even after allowing for elevated infection risk associated with poverty, seropositivity is elevated among Black non-Hispanics and other ethnic groups. There are also distinct effects of region. When regression results are translated into county prevalence estimates, the main influences on variation in county rates are percentages of non-Hispanic Blacks and county poverty. For targeting prevention it is important to assess implications of national survey data for small area prevalence. Using data from NHANES, the study confirms that both individual level risk factors and geographic contextual factors affect chances of Toxocara infection.

  19. Translation of risk factor estimates into on-farm interventions and their effect on Campylobacter broiler flock prevalence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, Helle Mølgaard; Nauta, Maarten; Rosenquist, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    population estimations using logistic regression. To obtain population estimates per country, the predicted prevalence values were multiplied by the frequencies (no. of farms) in a reference population based on data from the risk factor study and a large questionnaire. The latter was included to improve...... improve further when the results are integrated with costs of interventions in a cost effectiveness study. The approach was developed for Campylobacter in broiler flocks, but it can also be applied to other pathogens and other farm animals, given that the required data are available....

  20. A population-based national estimate of the prevalence and risk factors associated with hypertension in Rwanda: implications for prevention and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahimana, Marie-Rosette; Nyandwi, Alypio; Muhimpundu, Marie Aimee; Olu, Olushayo; Condo, Jeanine Umutesi; Rusanganwa, Andre; Koama, Jean Baptiste; Ngoc, Candide Tran; Gasherebuka, Jean Bosco; Ota, Martin O; Okeibunor, Joseph C

    2017-07-10

    Hypertension is a leading cause of cardiovascular diseases and a growing public health problem in many developed and developing countries. However, population-based data to inform policy development are scarce in Rwanda. This nationally representative study aimed to determine population-based estimates of the prevalence and risk factors associated with hypertension in Rwanda. We conducted secondary epidemiological analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional population-based study to assess the risk factors for NCDs using the WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance of non-communicable diseases (STEPS). Adjusted odds ratios at 95% confidence interval were used to establish association between hypertension, socio-demographic characteristics and health risk behaviors. Of the 7116 study participants, 62.8% were females and 38.2% were males. The mean age of study participants was 35.3 years (SD 12.5). The overall prevalence of hypertension was 15.3% (16.4% for males and 14.4% for females). Twenty two percent of hypertensive participants were previously diagnosed. A logistic regression model revealed that age (AOR: 8.02, 95% CI: 5.63-11.42, p Rwanda, suggesting the need for prevention and control interventions aimed at decreasing the incidence taking into consideration the risk factors documented in this and other similar studies.

  1. Prevalence and characteristics of women at risk for an alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP) in the United States: estimates from the National Survey of Family Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Michael J; Guo, Jing; Denny, Clark H; Green, Patricia P; Miracle, Heidi; Sniezek, Joseph E; Floyd, R Louise

    2015-04-01

    Non-pregnant women can avoid alcohol-exposed pregnancies (AEPs) by modifying drinking and/or contraceptive practices. The purpose of this study was to estimate the number and characteristics of women in the United States who are at risk of AEPs. We analyzed data from in-person interviews obtained from a national probability sample (i.e., the National Survey of Family Growth) of reproductive-aged women conducted from January 2002 to March 2003. To be at risk of AEP, a woman had to have met the following criteria in the last month: (1) was drinking; (2) had vaginal intercourse with a man; and (3) did not use contraception. During a 1-month period, nearly 2 million U.S. women were at risk of an AEP (95 % confidence interval 1,760,079-2,288,104), including more than 600,000 who were binge drinking. Thus, 3.4 %, or 1 in 30, of all non-pregnant women were at risk of an AEP. Most demographic and behavioral characteristics were not clearly associated with AEP risk. However, pregnancy intention was strongly associated with AEP risk (prevalence ratio = 12.0, P alcohol spectrum disorders. For pregnant women and women intending a pregnancy, there is an urgent need for wider implementation of prevention programs and policy approaches that can reduce the risk for this serious public health problem.

  2. Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Prevalence and Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Large Untreated French Urban Population: The CARVAR 92 Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carma Karam

    Full Text Available Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs changes over the years in an untreated population-based study.Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated.The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002 and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001. The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001 and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113. The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001.Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population.

  3. prevalence and risk

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    owner

    2012-12-26

    Dec 26, 2012 ... increase the frequency of occurrence of hypoglycaemia. Hypoglycaemia is a ... not only in increased frequency of falciparum malaria, but also .... of illness before presentation. Table 3: Prevalence of hypoglycaemia according to time of last meal. Table 4, shows the higher the parasite density the greater.

  4. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schull, W.J.; Texas Univ., Houston, TX

    1992-01-01

    Estimation of the risk of cancer following exposure to ionizing radiation remains largely empirical, and models used to adduce risk incorporate few, if any, of the advances in molecular biology of a past decade or so. These facts compromise the estimation risk where the epidemiological data are weakest, namely, at low doses and dose rates. Without a better understanding of the molecular and cellular events ionizing radiation initiates or promotes, it seems unlikely that this situation will improve. Nor will the situation improve without further attention to the identification and quantitative estimation of the effects of those host and environmental factors that enhance or attenuate risk. (author)

  5. Impact of varying the definition of myopia on estimates of prevalence and associations with risk factors: time for an approach that serves research, practice and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumberland, Phillippa M; Bountziouka, Vasiliki; Rahi, Jugnoo S

    2018-02-03

    Refractive error is an increasing global public health concern that requires robust and reliable research to identify modifiable risk factors and provide accurate estimates of population burden. We investigated the impact of reclassification of individuals when using different threshold values of spherical equivalent (SE) to define myopia, on estimates of frequency, distribution and associations with risk factors, to inform current international initiatives to standardise definitions. A random sample of 1985 individuals from the 1958 British birth cohort, at age 44, had autorefraction and self-reported on educational attainment and social class.Refraction status assigned in three different models using SE: (A) moderate to high myopia -3 diopters (D) or more extreme (≤-3.00D), (B) hypermetropia +1.00D or more extreme (≥+1.00D) and (C) mild myopia using three different thresholds: -1.00D, -0.75D or -0.50D, hence reciprocal changes in definition of emmetropia. Frequency estimates and associations with risk factors altered significantly as the threshold value for myopia moved towards SE 0.0D: prevalence of mild myopia increased from 28% to 47%, the association with highest educational attainment attenuated and with higher social class strengthened, with changes in risk ratios of approximately 20%. Even small changes in the threshold definition of myopia (±0.25D) can significantly affect the conclusions of epidemiological studies, creating both false-positive and false-negative associations for specific risk factors. An international classification for refractive error, empirically evidenced and cognisant of the question(s) being addressed and the population(s) being studied, is needed to serve better translational research, practice and policy. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  6. Estimating the global prevalence of transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waddington‐Cruz, Márcia; Botteman, Marc F.; Carter, John A.; Chopra, Avijeet S.; Hopps, Markay; Stewart, Michelle; Fallet, Shari; Amass, Leslie

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT Introduction: This study sought to estimate the global prevalence of transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy (ATTR‐FAP). Methods: Prevalence estimates and information supporting prevalence calculations was extracted from records yielded by reference‐database searches (2005–2016), conference proceedings, and nonpeer reviewed sources. Prevalence was calculated as prevalence rate multiplied by general population size, then extrapolated to countries without prevalence estimates but with reported cases. Results: Searches returned 3,006 records; 1,001 were fully assessed and 10 retained, yielding prevalence for 10 “core” countries, then extrapolated to 32 additional countries. ATTR‐FAP prevalence in core countries, extrapolated countries, and globally was 3,762 (range 3639–3884), 6424 (range, 1,887–34,584), and 10,186 (range, 5,526–38,468) persons, respectively. Discussion: The mid global prevalence estimate (10,186) approximates the maximum commonly accepted estimate (5,000–10,000). The upper limit (38,468) implies potentially higher prevalence. These estimates should be interpreted carefully because contributing evidence was heterogeneous and carried an overall moderate risk of bias. This highlights the requirement for increasing rare‐disease epidemiological assessment and clinician awareness. Muscle Nerve 57: 829–837, 2018 PMID:29211930

  7. Quantifying IT estimation risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.

    2009-01-01

    A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be

  8. Prevalence of workplace bullying and risk groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ortega, Adriana; Høgh, Annie; Pejtersen, Jan Hyld

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of bullying and to identify risk groups in a representative population sample. METHODS: The data for this study was taken from the second Danish Psychosocial Work Environment Study (DPWES). The sample consisted of 3,429 employees between 20 and 59-years......: These findings suggest that types of work and gender ratio are risk factors in the onset of workplace bullying. Future studies should take into account the type of work and the gender ratio of the organization....

  9. Dutch diabetes prevalence estimates (DUDE-1)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleefstra, Nanne; Landman, Gijsw. D.; Van Hateren, Kornelis J. J.; Meulepas, Marianne; Romeijnders, Arnold; Rutten, Guy E. H.; Klomp, Maarten; Houweling, Sebastiaan T.; Bilo, Henk J. G.

    Background: Recent decades have seen a constant upward projection in the prevalence of diabetes. Attempts to estimate diabetes prevalence rates based on relatively small population samples quite often result in underestimation. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the Dutch

  10. Dutch diabetes prevalence estimates (DUDE-1)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleefstra, Nanne; Landman, Gijsw. D.; Van Hateren, Kornelis J. J.; Meulepas, Marianne; Romeijnders, Arnold; Rutten, Guy E. H.; Klomp, Maarten; Houweling, Sebastiaan T.; Bilo, Henk J. G.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Recent decades have seen a constant upward projection in the prevalence of diabetes. Attempts to estimate diabetes prevalence rates based on relatively small population samples quite often result in underestimation. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the Dutch

  11. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  12. Estimating Risk Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Aswath Damodaran

    1999-01-01

    Over the last three decades, the capital asset pricing model has occupied a central and often controversial place in most corporate finance analysts’ tool chests. The model requires three inputs to compute expected returns – a riskfree rate, a beta for an asset and an expected risk premium for the market portfolio (over and above the riskfree rate). Betas are estimated, by most practitioners, by regressing returns on an asset against a stock index, with the slope of the regression being the b...

  13. Prevalence and risk factors of latent Tuberculosis among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    termine the risk factors of prevalent LTBI. We used a mixed effects binomial model with a logarithmic link function to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) for risk fac- tors of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Ethical consideration. The study was approved by the Makerere University. School of Public Health–Higher Degrees and ...

  14. A comparison of prevalence estimates for selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the National Health Interview Survey, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chaoyang; Balluz, Lina S; Ford, Earl S; Okoro, Catherine A; Zhao, Guixiang; Pierannunzi, Carol

    2012-06-01

    To compare the prevalence estimates of selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions among three national health surveys in the United States. Data from adults aged 18 years or older who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=807,524), the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=44,262), and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) during 2007 and 2008 (n=5871) were analyzed. The prevalence estimates of current smoking, obesity, hypertension, and no health insurance were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.7% to 3.9% (relative differences: 2.3% to 20.2%). The prevalence estimate of poor or fair health from BRFSS was similar to that from NHANES, but higher than that from NHIS. The prevalence estimates of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.0% to 0.8% (relative differences: 0.2% to 17.1%). While the BRFSS continues to provide invaluable health information at state and local level, it is reassuring to observe consistency in the prevalence estimates of key health indicators of similar caliber between BRFSS and other national surveys. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Risk estimates for bone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlenker, R.A.

    1982-01-01

    Bone sarcoma data for 226 228 Ra and 224 Ra are analyzed within the dosage ranges where the observed risk is zero. The uncertainty in the risk may be effectively illustrated by using pairs of functions based on a statistically-based measure of confidence. For radiation protection, the appropriate measure of risk is cumulative incidence in the presence of competing risks, as this takes into account the reduction of radiation effects brought about by natural mortality

  16. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, P.B.

    1981-11-01

    This report outlines the major publications between 1976 and 1981 that have contributed to the evolution of the way in which radiation risks (cancer and hereditary birth defects) are assessed. The publications include the latest findings of the UNSCEAR, BEIR and ICRP committees, epidemiological studies at low doses and new assessments of the doses received by the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report is not a detailed critique of those publications, but it highlights the impact of their findings on risk assessment

  17. Ecological risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartell, S.M.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.

    1992-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment, the process that evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors, is being developed by the US EPA as a tool for decision making. This book presents one approach to risk assessment-that of applying laboratory toxicity data within an ecosystem model to predict the potential ecological consequences of toxic chemicals. Both Standard Water Column Model (SWACOM), using zooplankton and fish, and Monte Carlo simulations are discussed in detail, along with quantitative explanations for many responses. Simplifying assumptions are explicitly presented. The final chapter discusses strengths, weaknesses, and future directions of the approach. The book is appropriate for anyone who does or uses ecological risk assessment methodologies

  18. A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Congdon Peter

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. Methods A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. Results To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Conclusion Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states and for

  19. Prevalence, risk factors and risk perception of tuberculosis infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prevalence, risk factors and risk perception of tuberculosis infection among medical students and healthcare workers in Johannesburg, South Africa. A van Rie, K McCarthy, L Scott, A Dow, WDF Venter, WS Stevens ...

  20. Prevalence and risk factors for Ascaris and Cryptosporidium ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Diseases in particular parasitic infestation is among the drawbacks to profitable pig production since parasites compromise the production and reproduction performance of infested pigs. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence and associated risk factors for Ascaris and Cryptosporidium infestations in pigs ...

  1. Standardized binomial models for risk or prevalence ratios and differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David B; Kinlaw, Alan C; MacLehose, Richard F; Cole, Stephen R

    2015-10-01

    Epidemiologists often analyse binary outcomes in cohort and cross-sectional studies using multivariable logistic regression models, yielding estimates of adjusted odds ratios. It is widely known that the odds ratio closely approximates the risk or prevalence ratio when the outcome is rare, and it does not do so when the outcome is common. Consequently, investigators may decide to directly estimate the risk or prevalence ratio using a log binomial regression model. We describe the use of a marginal structural binomial regression model to estimate standardized risk or prevalence ratios and differences. We illustrate the proposed approach using data from a cohort study of coronary heart disease status in Evans County, Georgia, USA. The approach reduces problems with model convergence typical of log binomial regression by shifting all explanatory variables except the exposures of primary interest from the linear predictor of the outcome regression model to a model for the standardization weights. The approach also facilitates evaluation of departures from additivity in the joint effects of two exposures. Epidemiologists should consider reporting standardized risk or prevalence ratios and differences in cohort and cross-sectional studies. These are readily-obtained using the SAS, Stata and R statistical software packages. The proposed approach estimates the exposure effect in the total population. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  2. Prevalence and risk factors of low back pain among undergraduate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-03-09

    Mar 9, 2015 ... education institute in Tunisia, to determine the causes of the injuries, and to ... Sfax to estimate the prevalence of LBP and its relation to the type of sports. ... judo, handball, and volleyball were identified as high-risk sports for ...

  3. Prevalence and risk factors for Active Convulsive Epilepsy in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: epilepsy is common in sub-Saharan Africa, but there is little data in West Africa, to develop public health measures for epilepsy in this region. Methods: we conducted a three-stage cross-sectional survey to determine the prevalence and risk factors for active convulsive epilepsy (ACE), and estimated the ...

  4. The need to estimate risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1980-01-01

    In an increasing number of situations, it is becoming possible to obtain and compare numerical estimates of the biological risks involved in different alternative sources of action. In some cases these risks are similar in kind, as for example when the risk of including fatal cancer of the breast or stomach by x-ray screening of a population at risk, is compared with the risk of such cancers proving fatal if not detected by a screening programme. In other cases in which it is important to attempt a comparison, the risks are dissimilar in type, as when the safety of occupations involving exposure to radiation or chemical carcinogens is compared with that of occupations in which the major risks are from lung disease or from accidental injury and death. Similar problems of assessing the relative severity of unlike effects occur in any attempt to compare the total biological harm associated with a given output of electricity derived from different primary fuel sources, with its contributions both of occupation and of public harm. In none of these instances is the numerical frequency of harmful effects alone an adequate measure of total biological detriment, nor is such detriment the only factor which should influence decisions. Estimations of risk appear important however, since otherwise public health decisions are likely to be made on more arbitrary grounds, and public opinion will continue to be affected predominantly by the type rather than also by the size of risk. (author)

  5. Refusal bias in the estimation of HIV prevalence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssens, Wendy; van der Gaag, Jacques; Rinke de Wit, Tobias F.; Tanović, Zlata

    2014-01-01

    In 2007, UNAIDS corrected estimates of global HIV prevalence downward from 40 million to 33 million based on a methodological shift from sentinel surveillance to population-based surveys. Since then, population-based surveys are considered the gold standard for estimating HIV prevalence. However,

  6. Radiation in space: risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fry, R.J.M.

    2002-01-01

    The complexity of radiation environments in space makes estimation of risks more difficult than for the protection of terrestrial population. In deep space the duration of the mission, position of the solar cycle, number and size of solar particle events (SPE) and the spacecraft shielding are the major determinants of risk. In low-earth orbit missions there are the added factors of altitude and orbital inclination. Different radiation qualities such as protons and heavy ions and secondary radiations inside the spacecraft such as neutrons of various energies, have to be considered. Radiation dose rates in space are low except for short periods during very large SPEs. Risk estimation for space activities is based on the human experience of exposure to gamma rays and to a lesser extent X rays. The doses of protons, heavy ions and neutrons are adjusted to take into account the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the different radiation types and thus derive equivalent doses. RBE values and factors to adjust for the effect of dose rate have to be obtained from experimental data. The influence of age and gender on the cancer risk is estimated from the data from atomic bomb survivors. Because of the large number of variables the uncertainties in the probability of the effects are large. Information needed to improve the risk estimates includes: (1) risk of cancer induction by protons, heavy ions and neutrons; (2) influence of dose rate and protraction, particularly on potential tissue effects such as reduced fertility and cataracts; and (3) possible effects of heavy ions on the central nervous system. Risk cannot be eliminated and thus there must be a consensus on what level of risk is acceptable. (author)

  7. Risk estimation using probability machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  8. Prevalence of health risk factors among fishermen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frantzeskou, Elpida; Jensen, Olaf; Linos, Athena

    2014-01-01

    Background Studies have shown that fishermen have a higher mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer and accidents. The majority of cardiovascular disease is caused by external risk factors such as the diet, tobacco, alcohol and lack of physical activity. The purpose of this paper...... was to review the available information on the prevalence of these preventable risk factors in order to strengthen the preventive strategies. Methods A search for the last decade was done via Medline, Google and Google Scholar with the keywords "diet, tobacco, alcohol, physical exercise, overweight....... Of the Danish fishermen 25%-, 34% and 37% were obese in the 18-24, 25-44 and 45-64 years age groups. Conclusion Health risk factors among fishermen need to be highlighted and further investigated as they represent occupational risks of major impact to chronic diseases prevalence with projections to quality...

  9. [Using log-binomial model for estimating the prevalence ratio].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Rong; Gao, Yan-hui; Yang, Yi; Chen, Yue

    2010-05-01

    To estimate the prevalence ratios, using a log-binomial model with or without continuous covariates. Prevalence ratios for individuals' attitude towards smoking-ban legislation associated with smoking status, estimated by using a log-binomial model were compared with odds ratios estimated by logistic regression model. In the log-binomial modeling, maximum likelihood method was used when there were no continuous covariates and COPY approach was used if the model did not converge, for example due to the existence of continuous covariates. We examined the association between individuals' attitude towards smoking-ban legislation and smoking status in men and women. Prevalence ratio and odds ratio estimation provided similar results for the association in women since smoking was not common. In men however, the odds ratio estimates were markedly larger than the prevalence ratios due to a higher prevalence of outcome. The log-binomial model did not converge when age was included as a continuous covariate and COPY method was used to deal with the situation. All analysis was performed by SAS. Prevalence ratio seemed to better measure the association than odds ratio when prevalence is high. SAS programs were provided to calculate the prevalence ratios with or without continuous covariates in the log-binomial regression analysis.

  10. Estimating cardiovascular disease incidence from prevalence: a spreadsheet based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Feng Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disease incidence and prevalence are both core indicators of population health. Incidence is generally not as readily accessible as prevalence. Cohort studies and electronic health record systems are two major way to estimate disease incidence. The former is time-consuming and expensive; the latter is not available in most developing countries. Alternatively, mathematical models could be used to estimate disease incidence from prevalence. Methods We proposed and validated a method to estimate the age-standardized incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD, with prevalence data from successive surveys and mortality data from empirical studies. Hallett’s method designed for estimating HIV infections in Africa was modified to estimate the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI in the U.S. population and incidence of heart disease in the Canadian population. Results Model-derived estimates were in close agreement with observed incidence from cohort studies and population surveillance systems. This method correctly captured the trend in incidence given sufficient waves of cross-sectional surveys. The estimated MI declining rate in the U.S. population was in accordance with the literature. This method was superior to closed cohort, in terms of the estimating trend of population cardiovascular disease incidence. Conclusion It is possible to estimate CVD incidence accurately at the population level from cross-sectional prevalence data. This method has the potential to be used for age- and sex- specific incidence estimates, or to be expanded to other chronic conditions.

  11. Comments on mutagenesis risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, W.L.

    1976-01-01

    Several hypotheses and concepts have tended to oversimplify the problem of mutagenesis and can be misleading when used for genetic risk estimation. These include: the hypothesis that radiation-induced mutation frequency depends primarily on the DNA content per haploid genome, the extension of this concept to chemical mutagenesis, the view that, since DNA is DNA, mutational effects can be expected to be qualitatively similar in all organisms, the REC unit, and the view that mutation rates from chronic irradiation can be theoretically and accurately predicted from acute irradiation data. Therefore, direct determination of frequencies of transmitted mutations in mammals continues to be important for risk estimation, and the specific-locus method in mice is shown to be not as expensive as is commonly supposed for many of the chemical testing requirements

  12. Estimated prevalence of dengue viremia in Puerto Rican blood donations, 1995 through 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Lyle R; Tomashek, Kay M; Biggerstaff, Brad J

    2012-08-01

    Dengue virus (DENV) nucleic acid amplification testing of blood donations during epidemics in endemic locations, including Puerto Rico, has suggested possible sizable transfusion transmission risk. Estimates of the long-term prevalence of DENV viremic donations will help evaluate the potential magnitude of this risk in Puerto Rico. Estimates of the prevalence of DENV viremia in the Puerto Rican population at large from 1995 through 2010 were derived from dengue case reports and their onset dates obtained from islandwide surveillance, estimates of case underreporting, and extant data on the duration of DENV viremia and the unapparent-to-apparent dengue infection ratio. Under the assumptions that viremia prevalence in blood donors was similar to that of the population at large and that symptomatic persons do not donate, statistical resampling methods were used to estimate the prevalence of dengue viremia in blood donations. Over the 16-year period, the maximum and mean daily prevalences of dengue viremia (per 10,000) in blood donations in Puerto Rico were estimated at 45.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 36.5-55.4) and 7.0 (95% CI, 3.9-10.1), respectively. Prevalence varied considerably by season and year. These data suggest a substantial prevalence of DENV viremia in Puerto Rican blood donations, particularly during outbreaks. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  13. Residual risk over-estimated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    The way nuclear power plants are built practically excludes accidents with serious consequences. This is attended to by careful selection of material, control of fabrication and regular retesting as well as by several safety systems working independently. But the remaining risk, a 'hypothetic' uncontrollable incident with catastrophic effects is the main subject of the discussion on the peaceful utilization of nuclear power. The this year's 'Annual Meeting on Nuclear Engineering' in Mannheim and the meeting 'Reactor Safety Research' in Cologne showed, that risk studies so far were too pessimistic. 'Best estimate' calculations suggest that core melt-down accidents only occur if almost all safety systems fail, that accidents take place much more slowly, and that the release of radioactive fission products is by several magnitudes lower than it was assumed until now. (orig.) [de

  14. Prevalence and Risk Factors of High Risk Human Papillomavirus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cervical cancer is the most common female cancer in northern Nigeria, yet the pattern of infection with human papillomavirus, the principal aetiologic agent is unknown. This was a preliminary study conducted in two referral hospitals in order to establish base-line data on the prevalence and risk factors for the infection in ...

  15. Prevalence and Risk Factors Associated with Dyslipidemia in Chongqing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Li; Ding, Xianbin; Tang, Wenge; Li, Qin; Mao, Deqiang; Wang, Yulin

    2015-10-26

    The increasing prevalence of dyslipidemia has become a worldwide public health problem, and the prevalence varies widely according to socioeconomic, cultural and ethnic characteristics. Chongqing has experienced rapid economic development and is now the economic center of Southwestern China. There are scant data on serum lipid profile of residents in Chongqing, the largest municipality directly under the Central Government in China. We conducted a cross-sectional study in a representative sample of 5375 residents of Chongqing, aged ≥18 years, and estimated the prevalence of dyslipidemia and its associated risk factors. According to the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, the age-standardized prevalence of dyslipidemia was 35.5% (34.4% among men and 37.6% among women). Among the 2009 patients with dyslipidemia, 44.2% had isolated hypertriglyceridemia, 14.7% had isolated hypercholesterolemia, 13.2% had mixed hyperlipidemia, and 28.0% had isolated low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The peak prevalence of dyslipidemia in men was between 30 and 39 years (48.2%), and then declined gradually; in women, the prevalence of dyslipidemia increased with age, with the peak prevalence occurring after age 60 (46.3%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that dyslipidemia was associated with age, education level, physical activity, obesity and central obesity for both men and women. In conclusion, the results indicated dyslipidemia, particularly hypertriglyceridemia and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, are very common in Chongqing. To prevent dyslipidemia, it is essential to conduct appropriate intervention programs aimed at risk factor reduction and implement routine screening programs for blood lipid levels in Chongqing, China.

  16. Estimating Prevalence of Coronary Heart Disease for Small Areas Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Congdon

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Different indicators of morbidity for chronic disease may not necessarily be available at a disaggregated spatial scale (e.g., for small areas with populations under 10 thousand. Instead certain indicators may only be available at a more highly aggregated spatial scale; for example, deaths may be recorded for small areas, but disease prevalence only at a considerably higher spatial scale. Nevertheless prevalence estimates at small area level are important for assessing health need. An instance is provided by England where deaths and hospital admissions for coronary heart disease are available for small areas known as wards, but prevalence is only available for relatively large health authority areas. To estimate CHD prevalence at small area level in such a situation, a shared random effect method is proposed that pools information regarding spatial morbidity contrasts over different indicators (deaths, hospitalizations, prevalence. The shared random effect approach also incorporates differences between small areas in known risk factors (e.g., income, ethnic structure. A Poisson-multinomial equivalence may be used to ensure small area prevalence estimates sum to the known higher area total. An illustration is provided by data for London using hospital admissions and CHD deaths at ward level, together with CHD prevalence totals for considerably larger local health authority areas. The shared random effect involved a spatially correlated common factor, that accounts for clustering in latent risk factors, and also provides a summary measure of small area CHD morbidity.

  17. Psychological methods of subjective risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimolong, B.

    1980-01-01

    Reactions to situations involving risks can be divided into the following parts/ perception of danger, subjective estimates of the risk and risk taking with respect to action. Several investigations have compared subjective estimates of the risk with an objective measure of that risk. In general there was a mis-match between subjective and objective measures of risk, especially, objective risk involved in routine activities is most commonly underestimated. This implies, for accident prevention, that attempts must be made to induce accurate subjective risk estimates by technical and behavioural measures. (orig.) [de

  18. The metabolic syndrome: prevalence, CHD risk, and treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarti, Cinzia; Gallagher, John

    2006-01-01

    An increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality is associated with the metabolic syndrome, a condition characterized by the concomitant presence of several abnormalities, including abdominal obesity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, insulin resistance (with or without glucose intolerance or diabetes), microalbuminuria, prothrombotic, and proinflammatory states. Estimates of the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome indicate that this condition is now common and likely to increase dramatically over the coming decades, in parallel with greater rates of obesity and Type 2 diabetes. Risk factors for the metabolic syndrome are already present in obese children and adolescents. Thus, identifying and treating all affected individuals promptly and optimally are critical to ensure that this potentially challenging healthcare burden is minimized. Here, we review the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome, dyslipidemias, and CHD risk. Although changes in lifestyle are fundamental to reducing many of the CHD risk factors associated with the metabolic syndrome, pharmacologic interventions also play an important role. Retrospective subanalyses of the effects of statins on coronary event rates and lipid levels in patients with the metabolic syndrome included in clinical trials indicate that these agents are beneficial in correcting the extensive lipid abnormalities that are frequently present in these individuals. However, the optimal management of metabolic syndrome dyslipidemia will depend on the outcomes of future prospective clinical trials. This review examines the underlying causes and prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and its impact on CHD morbidity and mortality and discusses the role of statins in optimizing its management.

  19. The prevalence of disability among children: paradigms and estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudrick, Nancy R

    2002-11-01

    Every examination of disability among children must first grapple with definition of disability. The challenges to identifying disability among children involve not only determining the appropriate paradigm for defining disability, but also applying that paradigm to children in a meaningful way. This discussion of the prevalence of disability among children starts by examining the various paradigms utilized to identify disability and how they are interpreted when applied to children. Estimates of the prevalence of childhood disability, under different definitions of disability are presented. The goal of the discussion is to illustrate the sensitivity of the estimates of disability prevalence to the particular definition and data set used. Finally, the potential influence of the choice of paradigm on further measurement and service delivery is outlined.

  20. Prevalence estimates of chronic kidney disease in Canada: results of a nationally representative survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Paul; Vasa, Priya; Brenner, Darren; Iglar, Karl; McFarlane, Phil; Morrison, Howard; Badawi, Alaa

    2013-01-01

    Background: Chronic kidney disease is an important risk factor for death and cardiovascular-related morbidity, but estimates to date of its prevalence in Canada have generally been extrapolated from the prevalence of end-stage renal disease. We used direct measures of kidney function collected from a nationally representative survey population to estimate the prevalence of chronic kidney disease among Canadian adults. Methods: We examined data for 3689 adult participants of cycle 1 of the Canadian Health Measures Survey (2007–2009) for the presence of chronic kidney disease. We also calculated the age-standardized prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors by chronic kidney disease group. We cross-tabulated the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with albuminuria status. Results: The prevalence of chronic kidney disease during the period 2007–2009 was 12.5%, representing about 3 million Canadian adults. The estimated prevalence of stage 3–5 disease was 3.1% (0.73 million adults) and albuminuria 10.3% (2.4 million adults). The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and hypertriglyceridemia were all significantly higher among adults with chronic kidney disease than among those without it. The prevalence of albuminuria was high, even among those whose eGFR was 90 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or greater (10.1%) and those without diabetes or hypertension (9.3%). Awareness of kidney dysfunction among adults with stage 3–5 chronic kidney disease was low (12.0%). Interpretation: The prevalence of kidney dysfunction was substantial in the survey population, including individuals without hypertension or diabetes, conditions most likely to prompt screening for kidney dysfunction. These findings highlight the potential for missed opportunities for early intervention and secondary prevention of chronic kidney disease. PMID:23649413

  1. A prospective longitudinal study to estimate the prevalence of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A prospective longitudinal study to estimate the prevalence of obesity in Egyptian children with nocturnal enuresis and the association between body mass index and ... Egyptian Journal of Medical Human Genetics ... Response to the treatment was evaluated statistically and correlated with body mass index percentile.

  2. Disease prevalence estimations based on contact registrations in general practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogenveen, Rudolf; Westert, Gert; Dijkgraaf, Marcel; Schellevis, François; de Bakker, Dinny

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes how to estimate the prevalence of chronic diseases in a population using data from contact registrations in general practice with a limited time length. Instead of using only total numbers of observed patients adjusted for the length of the observation period, we propose the use

  3. Urban-Rural estimation of hepatitis c virus infection sero-prevalence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background/Objective: The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been partially described for at risk groups in urban communities in Nigeria. On the other hand, literature on the possible spread of the virus in rural Nigeria remains extremely scanty. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of ...

  4. Methods for risk estimation in nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauvenet, A [CEA, 75 - Paris (France)

    1979-01-01

    The author presents methods for estimating the different risks related to nuclear energy: immediate or delayed risks, individual or collective risks, risks of accidents and long-term risks. These methods have attained a highly valid level of elaboration and their application to other industrial or human problems is currently under way, especially in English-speaking countries.

  5. Prevalence and risk of injury in Europe by driving with alcohol, illicit drugs and medicines.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernhoft, I.M. Hels, T. Lyckegaard, A. Houwing, S. & Verstraete, A.G.

    2012-01-01

    Prevalence and injury risk of driving with alcohol, illicit drugs and medicines have been estimated as part of the DRUID (Driving under the Influence of Drugs, Alcohol and Medicines) project of FP6. Prevalence in the driving population was based on roadside surveys in thirteen European countries,

  6. Prevalence and risk factors for methicillin resistant Staphylococcus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prevalence and risk factors for methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus carriage among emergency department workers and bacterial contamination on touch surfaces in Erciyes University Hospital, Kayseri, Turkey.

  7. Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Chaimowicz

    Full Text Available The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries' populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil.We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815. Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%.The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations.

  8. Impact of microbial count distributions on human health risk estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ribeiro Duarte, Ana Sofia; Nauta, Maarten

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is influenced by the choice of the probability distribution used to describe pathogen concentrations, as this may eventually have a large effect on the distribution of doses at exposure. When fitting a probability distribution to microbial...... enumeration data, several factors may have an impact on the accuracy of that fit. Analysis of the best statistical fits of different distributions alone does not provide a clear indication of the impact in terms of risk estimates. Thus, in this study we focus on the impact of fitting microbial distributions...... on risk estimates, at two different concentration scenarios and at a range of prevalence levels. By using five different parametric distributions, we investigate whether different characteristics of a good fit are crucial for an accurate risk estimate. Among the factors studied are the importance...

  9. Estimating the global prevalence of zinc deficiency: results based on zinc availability in national food supplies and the prevalence of stunting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Ryan Wessells

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Adequate zinc nutrition is essential for adequate growth, immunocompetence and neurobehavioral development, but limited information on population zinc status hinders the expansion of interventions to control zinc deficiency. The present analyses were conducted to: (1 estimate the country-specific prevalence of inadequate zinc intake; and (2 investigate relationships between country-specific estimated prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and dietary patterns and stunting prevalence. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: National food balance sheet data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Country-specific estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake were calculated based on the estimated absorbable zinc content of the national food supply, International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group estimated physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, and demographic data obtained from United Nations estimates. Stunting data were obtained from a recent systematic analysis based on World Health Organization growth standards. An estimated 17.3% of the world's population is at risk of inadequate zinc intake. Country-specific estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake was negatively correlated with the total energy and zinc contents of the national food supply and the percent of zinc obtained from animal source foods, and positively correlated with the phytate: zinc molar ratio of the food supply. The estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake was correlated with the prevalence of stunting (low height-for-age in children under five years of age (r = 0.48, P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: These results, which indicate that inadequate dietary zinc intake may be fairly common, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, allow inter-country comparisons regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem. Data from these analyses should be used to determine

  10. Erectile dysfunction: prevalence, risk factors and involvement of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ISSN: 1596-5996 (print); 1596-9827 (electronic) ... Abstract. Purpose: To explore the literature regarding prevalance, risk factors and the involvement of ..... Cigarette smoking and other vascular risk factors in vasculogenic impotence. Urology.

  11. Infection prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni and associated risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bheema

    prevalence rate, identifying risk factors of infection and high-risk groups. ... other hand, the highest (31.2%) prevalence was recorded in children with ages ranging from 10 ..... School children and their teachers were acknowledged for ... transmission and infection with S. mansoni in village in the South eastern Brazil. Mem.

  12. Prevalence of diabetes mellitus and the associated behavioral risks ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: The prevalence of type 2 Diabetes is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, hence the need for early identification of risk factors. This study, therefore, aimed to determine the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and the associated behavioral risks among secondary school staff in Owo, Ondo State, Nigeria.

  13. Global prevalence and major risk factors of diabetic retinopathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yau, Joanne W Y; Rogers, Sophie L; Kawasaki, Ryo

    2012-01-01

    To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes.......To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes....

  14. Prevalence, Progression and Associated Risk Factors of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: The prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) ranges between 4.5% and 57% and is independently associated with cardiovascular disease burden irrespective of symptoms. Two thirds of cases are thought to be asymptomatic and may go unrecognised. Local prevalence and natural progression of ...

  15. Recreational nitrous oxide use: Prevalence and risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Amsterdam, Jan; Nabben, Ton; van den Brink, Wim

    2015-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O; laughing gas) is clinically used as a safe anesthetic (dentistry, ambulance, childbirth) and appreciated for its anti-anxiety effect. Since five years, recreational use of N2O is rapidly increasing especially in the dance and festival scene. In the UK, N2O is the second most popular recreational drug after cannabis. In most countries, nitrous oxide is a legal drug that is widely available and cheap. Last month prevalence of use among clubbers and ravers ranges between 40 and almost 80 percent. Following one inhalation, mostly from a balloon, a euphoric, pleasant, joyful, empathogenic and sometimes hallucinogenic effect is rapidly induced (within 10 s) and disappears within some minutes. Recreational N2O use is generally moderate with most users taking less than 10 balloons of N2O per episode and about 80% of the users having less than 10 episodes per year. Side effects of N2O include transient dizziness, dissociation, disorientation, loss of balance, impaired memory and cognition, and weakness in the legs. When intoxicated accidents like tripping and falling may occur. Some fatal accidents have been reported due to due to asphyxia (hypoxia). Heavy or sustained use of N2O inactivates vitamin B12, resulting in a functional vitamin B12 deficiency and initially causing numbness in fingers, which may further progress to peripheral neuropathy and megaloblastic anemia. N2O use does not seem to result in dependence. Considering the generally modest use of N2O and its relative safety, it is not necessary to take legal measures. However, (potential) users should be informed about the risk of vitamin B12-deficiency related neurological and hematological effects associated with heavy use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Estimated prevalence of compulsive buying behavior in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koran, Lorrin M; Faber, Ronald J; Aboujaoude, Elias; Large, Michael D; Serpe, Richard T

    2006-10-01

    Compulsive buying (uncontrolled urges to buy, with resulting significant adverse consequences) has been estimated to affect from 1.8% to 16% of the adult U.S. population. To the authors' knowledge, no study has used a large general population sample to estimate its prevalence. The authors conducted a random sample, national household telephone survey in the spring and summer of 2004 and interviewed 2,513 adults. The interviews addressed buying attitudes and behaviors, their consequences, and the respondents' financial and demographic data. The authors used a clinically validated screening instrument, the Compulsive Buying Scale, to classify respondents as either compulsive buyers or not. The rate of response was 56.3%, which compares favorably with rates in federal national health surveys. The cooperation rate was 97.6%. Respondents included a higher percentage of women and people ages 55 and older than the U.S. adult population. The estimated point prevalence of compulsive buying among respondents was 5.8% (by gender: 6.0% for women, 5.5% for men). The gender-adjusted prevalence rate was 5.8%. Compared with other respondents, compulsive buyers were younger, and a greater proportion reported incomes under 50,000 US dollars. They exhibited more maladaptive responses on most consumer behavior measures and were more than four times less likely to pay off credit card balances in full. A study using clinically valid interviews is needed to evaluate these results. The emotional and functional toll of compulsive buying and the frequency of comorbid psychiatric disorders suggests that studies of treatments and social interventions are warranted.

  17. Prevalence and risk factors of dry eye disease in a British female cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vehof, Jelle; Kozareva, Diana; Hysi, Pirro G.; Hammond, Christopher J.

    2014-01-01

    Background/aims To estimate the prevalence and risk factors of dry eye disease (DED) in a female cohort in the UK. Methods Population-based cross-sectional association study of 3824 women from the TwinsUK cohort aged 20-87 years. A questionnaire was used to evaluate DED and several risk factors.

  18. The importance of estimating selection bias on prevalence estimates shortly after a disaster.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grievink, Linda; Velden, Peter G van der; Yzermans, C Joris; Roorda, Jan; Stellato, Rebecca K

    2006-01-01

    PURPOSE: The aim was to study selective participation and its effect on prevalence estimates in a health survey of affected residents 3 weeks after a man-made disaster in The Netherlands (May 13, 2000). METHODS: All affected adult residents were invited to participate. Survey (questionnaire) data

  19. The importance of estimating selection bias on prevalence estimates, shortly after a disaster.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grievink, L.; Velden, P.G. van der; Yzermans, C.J.; Roorda, J.; Stellato, R.K.

    2006-01-01

    PURPOSE: The aim was to study selective participation and its effect on prevalence estimates in a health survey of affected residents 3 weeks after a man-made disaster in The Netherlands (May 13, 2000). METHODS: All affected adult residents were invited to participate. Survey (questionnaire) data

  20. Risk estimates for exposure to alpha emitters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-07-01

    The primary scope of this report is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer from occupational exposure to short-lived daughters of radon and thoron. The Subcommittee on Risk Estimates considers that inhalation of radon and thoron daughters is the major radiation hazard from alpha radiation in uranium mining. The secondary scope of this report is the consideration of the applicability of the risk estimates derived from miners to the general public. The risk to members of the public from radium-226 in drinking water is also considered. Some research requirments are suggested

  1. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  2. [Estimated prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in the Canary Islands].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortea Sevilla, M S; Escandell Bermúdez, M O; Castro Sánchez, J J

    2013-12-01

    To make an initial estimate of the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) among children in the province of Las Palmas (Spain). Descriptive study was conducted on 1,796 children between the ages of 18 and 30 months of age, all part of the Child Health Surveillance of the Canary Islands, more specifically the province of Las Palmas, with a population of 1,090,605. The parents of children involved completed the Spanish version of the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT/ES) in the paediatric clinic. The positive cases were then diagnosed by experts by means of the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADIR) and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS). A 0.61% prevalence of ASDs was determined, similar to that reported in previous studies using the same tools. The ratio was six girls for every five boys. This was contrary to the results of previous studies which suggested more boys than girls were affected. This may have been due to the sample size, which will have to be increased in future studies to confirm this outcome. An increased sample size and also spread to other age ranges should be used in order to obtain a more reliable estimate of prevalence. As regards the gender ratio, this could be a result of the small size of the sample researched, and should therefore be confirmed by further studies. Copyright © 2012 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  3. Salmonella risk to consumers via pork is related to the Salmonella prevalence in pig feed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rönnqvist, M; Välttilä, V; Ranta, J; Tuominen, P

    2018-05-01

    Pigs are an important source of human infections with Salmonella, one of the most common causes of sporadic gastrointestinal infections and foodborne outbreaks in the European region. Feed has been estimated to be a significant source of Salmonella in piggeries in countries of a low Salmonella prevalence. To estimate Salmonella risk to consumers via the pork production chain, including feed production, a quantitative risk assessment model was constructed. The Salmonella prevalence in feeds and in animals was estimated to be generally low in Finland, but the relative importance of feed as a source of Salmonella in pigs was estimated as potentially high. Discontinuation of the present strict Salmonella control could increase the risk of Salmonella in slaughter pigs and consequent infections in consumers. The increased use of low risk and controlled feed ingredients could result in a consistently lower residual contamination in pigs and help the tracing and control of the sources of infections. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Uranium mill tailings and risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, S.

    1984-04-01

    Work done in estimating projected health effects for persons exposed to mill tailings at vicinity properties is described. The effect of the reassessment of exposures at Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the risk estimates for gamma radiation is discussed. A presentation of current results in the epidemiological study of Hanford workers is included. 2 references

  5. Estimating the prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma mansoni infection among rural communities in Western Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bakuza, Jared S.; Denwood, Matthew J.; Nkwengulila, Gamba

    2017-01-01

    with sex or age. Conclusions/Significance Overall, our data suggest a more widespread distribution of S. mansoni in this part of Tanzania than was previously thought. The apparent prevalence estimates substantially under-estimated the true prevalence as determined by the ZINB models, and the two types......) models with explanatory variables of site, sex, and age. The ZINB models indicated that a substantial proportion of the observed zero FWEC reflected a failure to detect eggs in truly infected individuals, meaning that the estimated true prevalence was much higher than the apparent prevalence...... of sampling strategies also resulted in differing conclusions regarding prevalence of infection. We therefore recommend that future surveillance programmes designed to assess risk factors should use active sampling whenever possible, in order to avoid the self-selection bias associated with passive sampling....

  6. Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

  7. Prevalence and risk factors of obesity and high blood pressure ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: The prevalence of diet-related chronic diseases like hypertension and obesity among others has become a public health concern. Risk factors for these diseases have been well studied in high income countries but less studied in developing countries. Objective: The study was to document the prevalence and ...

  8. Prevalence of camel tuberculosis and associated risk factors in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A cross sectional abattoir based study was conducted from February 2014 to October, 2015 on camels slaughtered at Akaki municipality abattoir to determine the prevalence of Tuberculosis in camels and assess the association of risk factors with the prevalence of Tuberculosis in camels using single intra-dermal ...

  9. Prevalence and risk factors of workplace violence against health ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Emergency department is one of the high-risk areas, where violence against health care workers (HCWs) is a prevalent and serious problem. Violence has negative effects on HCWs, and therefore on the quality of care provided in emergency department. This study aimed to determine the prevalence, types, ...

  10. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in an African, Urban inner ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The object of this community based study was to determine the prevalence of selected cardiovascular risk factors in an urban inner city community which had been followed up prospectively from 1993 to 1998. Results show that the prevalence of hypertension (Blood Pressure BP > 160/95 mm Hg) was 12.4 percent with an ...

  11. Prevalence of Risk Factors for Coronary Artery Disease in Southern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    (48.5 %), fatty food consumption (47.5 %), obesity (38 %) and smoking (37 %), respectively. Other less ... Keywords: Risk factors, Prevalence, Coronary artery disease, Diabetes, Southern Punjab ... developing world, including Pakistan [1]. The.

  12. Prevalence, distribution and risk factors associated with taeniid ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prevalence, distribution and risk factors associated with taeniid cestode infections of trade dogs, in Dawaki, Plateau State, Nigeria. ... and the control of these cestode infections requires improved management practices and public education.

  13. Knowledge and prevalence of risk factors for hypertension among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Knowledge and prevalence of risk factors for hypertension among workers in the banking industry in ... Tropical Journal of Health Sciences ... hours, with little physical activity could predispose bank workers to developing hypertension.

  14. Prevalence of early childhood caries and associated risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Javier Aguilar-Ayala

    2014-08-01

    Conclusion: due to the high prevalence of white spots, is necessary to create prevention programs that educate mothers or caregivers about the caries risk factors and its control, promoting self-care as a preven- tion strategy.

  15. Prevalence of Risk Factors for Coronary Artery Disease in Southern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    CAD) in Southern Punjab, Pakistan. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted for the prevalence of risk factors for CAD among 200 patients admitted at the different hospitals of Southern Punjab, Pakistan from December 2012 to April ...

  16. Prevalence and risk factors for brucellosis in prolonged fever ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ifiable risk factors for the infection in humans in post conflict Northern Uganda. Methods: The study ... human brucellosis control. Keywords: Brucellosis, human, fever, prevalence, Uganda, zoonosis. ..... lution and taxonomy. Vet Microbiol. 2002 ...

  17. The prevalence and risk factors associated with anaemia among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The prevalence and risk factors associated with anaemia among HIV patients ... haematological complications of HIV, and most of the studies in Nigeria and outside ... Methods: This was a cross – sectional study conducted over a period of 6 ...

  18. Estimation of risks from medical irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, B.R.R.

    1983-01-01

    This paper discuss various concepts of quantifying risks from medical irradiation. The expected individual risk from specific medical examination can be derived by estimation the dose-equivalent in different organs and tissues and apply the risk factors recommended for these tissues. A more practical way is to estimate or measure the energy imparted which has been found to correlate quite well with the total risk derived by summing up the risks for the involved tissues. The effective dose-equivalent concept can be used to derive the collective effective dose-equivalent in a population in order to compare the contribution from medical exposure with the contribution from other sources of irradiation in the society. In many countries it is thus shown that medical exposures gives the largest man-made contribution to the population dose

  19. Republic of Georgia estimates for prevalence of drug use: Randomized response techniques suggest under-estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirtadze, Irma; Otiashvili, David; Tabatadze, Mzia; Vardanashvili, Irina; Sturua, Lela; Zabransky, Tomas; Anthony, James C

    2018-06-01

    Validity of responses in surveys is an important research concern, especially in emerging market economies where surveys in the general population are a novelty, and the level of social control is traditionally higher. The Randomized Response Technique (RRT) can be used as a check on response validity when the study aim is to estimate population prevalence of drug experiences and other socially sensitive and/or illegal behaviors. To apply RRT and to study potential under-reporting of drug use in a nation-scale, population-based general population survey of alcohol and other drug use. For this first-ever household survey on addictive substances for the Country of Georgia, we used the multi-stage probability sampling of 18-to-64-year-old household residents of 111 urban and 49 rural areas. During the interviewer-administered assessments, RRT involved pairing of sensitive and non-sensitive questions about drug experiences. Based upon the standard household self-report survey estimate, an estimated 17.3% [95% confidence interval, CI: 15.5%, 19.1%] of Georgian household residents have tried cannabis. The corresponding RRT estimate was 29.9% [95% CI: 24.9%, 34.9%]. The RRT estimates for other drugs such as heroin also were larger than the standard self-report estimates. We remain unsure about what is the "true" value for prevalence of using illegal psychotropic drugs in the Republic of Georgia study population. Our RRT results suggest that standard non-RRT approaches might produce 'under-estimates' or at best, highly conservative, lower-end estimates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Mental health of a police force: estimating prevalence of work-related depression in Australia without a direct national measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Katrina J; Rodwell, John J; Noblet, Andrew J

    2012-06-01

    The risk of work-related depression in Australia was estimated based on a survey of 631 police officers. Psychological wellbeing and psychological distress items were mapped onto a measure of depression to identify optimal cutoff points. Based on a sample of police officers, Australian workers, in general, are at risk of depression when general psychological wellbeing is considerably compromised. Large-scale estimation of work-related depression in the broader population of employed persons in Australia is reasonable. The relatively high prevalence of depression among police officers emphasizes the need to examine prevalence rates of depression among Australian employees.

  1. [Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

    2017-03-10

    To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

  2. Cardiovascular risk estimation in older persons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cooney, Marie Therese; Selmer, Randi; Lindman, Anja

    2016-01-01

    .73 to 0.75). Calibration was also reasonable, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test: 17.16 (men), 22.70 (women). Compared with the original SCORE function extrapolated to the ≥65 years age group discrimination improved, p = 0.05 (men), p women). Simple risk charts were constructed. On simulated...... risk estimation systems, that risk factors function similarly in all age groups. We aimed to derive and validate a risk estimation function, SCORE O.P., solely from data from individuals aged 65 years and older. METHODS AND RESULTS: 20,704 men and 20,121 women, aged 65 and over and without pre...... model and were included in the SCORE O.P. model were: age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and diabetes. SCORE O.P. showed good discrimination; area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0...

  3. Prevalence of estimated GFR reporting among US clinical laboratories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Accetta, Nancy A; Gladstone, Elisa H; DiSogra, Charles; Wright, Elizabeth C; Briggs, Michael; Narva, Andrew S

    2008-10-01

    Routine laboratory reporting of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) may help clinicians detect kidney disease. The current national prevalence of eGFR reporting in clinical laboratories is unknown; thus, the extent of the situation of laboratories not routinely reporting eGFR with serum creatinine results is not quantified. Observational analysis. National Kidney Disease Education Program survey of clinical laboratories conducted in 2006 to 2007 by mail, web, and telephone follow-up. A national random sample, 6,350 clinical laboratories, drawn from the Federal Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments database and stratified by 6 major laboratory types/groupings. Laboratory reports serum creatinine results. Reporting eGFR values with serum creatinine results. Percentage of laboratories reporting eGFR along with reporting serum creatinine values, reporting protocol, eGFR formula used, and style of reporting cutoff values. Of laboratories reporting serum creatinine values, 38.4% report eGFR (physician offices, 25.8%; hospitals, 43.6%; independents, 38.9%; community clinics, 47.2%; health fair/insurance/public health, 45.5%; and others, 43.2%). Physician office laboratories have a reporting prevalence lower than other laboratory types (P laboratories reporting eGFR, 66.7% do so routinely with all adult serum creatinine determinations; 71.6% use the 4-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation; and 45.3% use the ">60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)" reporting convention. Independent laboratories are least likely to routinely report eGFR (50.6%; P laboratories across all strata are more likely to report eGFR (P laboratories, federal database did not have names of laboratory directors/managers (intended respondents), assumed accuracy of federal database for sample purposes. Routine eGFR reporting with serum creatinine values is not yet universal, and laboratories vary in their reporting practices.

  4. Estimation, assessment and management of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

    2005-01-01

    After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

  5. Prevalence of some risk factors associated with hypertension among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hypertension is fast becoming a public health problem and has been associated with certain risk factors that have been found to contribute to the increasing rates of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Sub Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of some risk factors associated with ...

  6. Prevalence and awareness of hypertension and associated risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Hypertension is largely asymptomatic and common among adult Nigerians, and considered to be of public health importance. Banking work is associated with stress, a risk for hypertension. Aim: To evaluate the prevalence and awareness of hypertension and its associated risk factors among bankers in Owerri.

  7. Low prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among primary school ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Identification of obesity and other risk factors for cardiovascular disease in childhood is strongly recommended for prevention of the diseases in adulthood. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of the conventional cardiovascular risk factors among primary school children aged 6-15 years in Urban Dar es ...

  8. Prevalence and risk factors of latent Tuberculosis among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Latent Tuberculosis treatment is a key tuberculosis control intervention. Adolescents are a high risk group that is not routinely treated in low income countries. Knowledge of latent Tuberculosis (TB) burden among adolescents may influence policy. Objectives: We determined the prevalence and risk factors of ...

  9. College Students' Perceived Disease Risk versus Actual Prevalence Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Matthew Lee; Dickerson, Justin B.; Sosa, Erica T.; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Ory, Marcia G.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To compare college students' perceived disease risk with disease prevalence rates. Methods: Data were analyzed from 625 college students collected with an Internet-based survey. Paired t-tests were used to separately compare participants' perceived 10-year and lifetime disease risk for 4 diseases: heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and…

  10. Prevalence and risk factors for Staphylococcus aureus and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prevalence and risk factors for Staphylococcus aureus and methicillin‑resistant Staphylococcus aureus nasal carriage inpatients in a tertiary care hospital's chest clinic in Turkey. ... of the participants and risk factors for carriage. Fisher's exact test, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used. A P < 0.05 ...

  11. Comparison of Prevalence- and Smoking Impact Ratio-Based Methods of Estimating Smoking-Attributable Fractions of Deaths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung Ae Kong

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Smoking is a major modifiable risk factor for premature mortality. Estimating the smoking-attributable burden is important for public health policy. Typically, prevalence- or smoking impact ratio (SIR-based methods are used to derive estimates, but there is controversy over which method is more appropriate for country-specific estimates. We compared smoking-attributable fractions (SAFs of deaths estimated by these two methods. Methods: To estimate SAFs in 2012, we used several different prevalence-based approaches using no lag and 10- and 20-year lags. For the SIR-based method, we obtained lung cancer mortality rates from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS and from the United States-based Cancer Prevention Study-II (CPS-II. The relative risks for the diseases associated with smoking were also obtained from these cohort studies. Results: For males, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were similar to those obtained using prevalence-based methods. For females, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were markedly greater than all prevalence-based SAFs. Differences in prevalence-based SAFs by time-lag period were minimal among males, but SAFs obtained using longer-lagged prevalence periods were significantly larger among females. SAFs obtained using CPS-II-based SIRs were lower than KCPS-based SAFs by >15 percentage points for most diseases, with the exceptions of lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Conclusions: SAFs obtained using prevalence- and SIR-based methods were similar for males. However, neither prevalence-based nor SIR-based methods resulted in precise SAFs among females. The characteristics of the study population should be carefully considered when choosing a method to estimate SAF.

  12. The complex model of risk and progression of AMD estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Akopyan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to develop a method and a statistical model to estimate individual risk of AMD and the risk for progression to advanced AMD using clinical and genetic risk factors.Methods: A statistical risk assessment model was developed using stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. to estimate the population differences in the prevalence of allelic variants of genes and for the development of models adapted to the population of Moscow region genotyping and assessment of the influence of other risk factors was performed in two groups: patients with differ- ent stages of AMD (n = 74, and control group (n = 116. Genetic risk factors included in the study: polymorphisms in the complement system genes (C3 and CFH, genes at 10q26 locus (ARMS2 and HtRA1, polymorphism in the mitochondrial gene Mt-ND2. Clinical risk factors included in the study: age, gender, high body mass index, smoking history.Results: A comprehensive analysis of genetic and clinical risk factors for AMD in the study group was performed. Compiled statis- tical model assessment of individual risk of AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.5%, AUC = 0.76. Risk factors of late AMD, compiled a statistical model describing the probability of late AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.3%, AUC = 0.73. the developed system allows determining the most likely version of the current late AMD: dry or wet.Conclusion: the developed test system and the mathematical algorhythm for determining the risk of AMD, risk of progression to advanced AMD have fair diagnostic informative and promising for use in clinical practice.

  13. Mycoplasma genitalium: prevalence and behavioural risk factors in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Berit; Sokolowski, Ineta; Østergaard, Lars

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Mycoplasma genitalium has been shown to cause urethritis in men and cervicitis in women and may also be a causative agent in female infertility. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of urogenital M genitalium infection and identify sexual behavioural risk factors in the general...

  14. Prevalence and risk factors for HIV among people aged 50 years ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: It is estimated that over ten percent of the 36.7 million people living with HIV (PLWHIV) globally, are those aged ≥50 years. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and risk factors for HIV among adult aged 50 years and above in Rombo district, northern Tanzania. Methods: This cross ...

  15. Prevalence, Progression and Associated Risk Factors of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    early intervention and reducing their increased risk of cardiovascular-related mortality (1,9,10). The primary non-invasive screening test for PAD is the. Ankle Brachial Index (ABI), an accurate, reliable and easily assessable, though poorly utilised tool in general practice (11,12). Ankle Brachial Index (ABI) detects peripheral ...

  16. [The concept of risk and its estimation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A

    1996-01-01

    The concept of risk, in relation to human health, is a topic of primary interest for occupational health professionals. A new legislation recently established in Italy (626/94) according to European Community directives in the field of Preventive Medicine, called attention to this topic, and in particular to risk assessment and evaluation. Motivated by this context and by the impression that the concept of risk is frequently misunderstood, the present paper has two aims: the identification of the different meanings of the term "risk" in the new Italian legislation and the critical discussion of some commonly used definitions; and the proposal of a general definition, with the specification of a mathematical expression for quantitative risk estimation. The term risk (and risk estimation, assessment, or evaluation) has mainly referred to three different contexts: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects occurrence. Unfortunately, there are contexts in the legislation in which it is difficult to identify the true meaning of the term. This might cause equivocal interpretations and erroneous applications of the law because hazard evaluation, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects identification are completely different topics that require integrated but distinct approaches to risk management. As far as a quantitative definition of risk is of concern, we suggest an algorithm which connects the three basic risk elements (hazard, exposure, adverse health effects) by means of their probabilities of occurrence: the probability of being exposed (to a definite dose) given that a specific hazard is present (Pr(e[symbol: see text]p)), and the probability of occurrence of an adverse health effect as a consequence of that exposure (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)). Using these quantitative components, risk can be defined as a sequence of measurable events that starts with hazard identification and terminates with disease occurrence; therefore, the

  17. An estimate of the prevalence of developmental phonagnosia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilowich, Bryan E; Biederman, Irving

    2016-08-01

    A web-based survey estimated the distribution of voice recognition abilities with a focus on determining the prevalence of developmental phonagnosia, the inability to identify a familiar person based on their voice. Participants matched clips of 50 celebrity voices to 1-4 named headshots of celebrities whose voices they had previously rated for familiarity. Given a strong correlation between rated familiarity and recognition performance, a residual was calculated based on the average familiarity rating on each trial, which thus constituted each respondent's voice recognition ability that could not be accounted for by familiarity. 3.2% of the respondents (23 of 730 participants) had residual recognition scores 2.28 SDs below the mean (whereas 8 or 1.1% would have been expected from a normal distribution). They also judged whether they could imagine the voice of five familiar celebrities. Individuals who had difficulty in imagining voices were also generally below average in their accuracy of recognition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Prevalence Data (2010 and Prior)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2002-2010. BRFSS SMART MMSA Prevalence land line only data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance...

  19. Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) County Prevalence Data (2010 and prior)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2002-2010. BRFSS SMART County Prevalence land line only data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance...

  20. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

  1. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

  2. [Prevalence of asthma and determination of symptoms as risk indicators].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancilla-Hernández, Eleazar; Medina-Ávalos, Miguel Alejandro; Barnica-Alvarado, Raúl Humberto; Soto-Candia, Diego; Guerrero-Venegas, Rosario; Zecua-Nájera, Yahvéh

    2015-01-01

    Asthma is a chronic inflammatory airway disease whose prevalence has increased, especially in developed countries; the results of studies of asthma prevalence vary in different populations and even within the same country; in Mexico we observed fluctuations in prevalence of asthma from 7% to 33%. To determine the prevalence of asthma and severity of symptoms as risk indicators in school population in cities in various states of Mexico. A descriptive study of detection of asthma prevalence and analytical-comparative observational study of determination of symptoms of asthma. The surveys were applied to preschool, elementary, middle and high school population, in the cities of Puebla, Puebla; Tulancingo, Hidalgo; Tlaxcala, Tlaxcala, and Cancún, Quintana Roo; new validated questionnaire was used as instrument: Asthma Diagnostic Questionnaire for Epidemiologic Studies, consisting of eight questions with summation value for diagnosis. 8,754 surveys showed a 14% prevalence in Puebla, 17% in Tulancingo, 7% in Tlaxcala, and 14% in Cancún; average in four cities surveyed was 13%; the strength of association with asthma symptoms in descending order with significant odds ratio were: recurrent wheezing, breathlessness, chest tightness, recurrent cough, cough cold, recurrent cold symptoms, predominantly nocturnal cough, cough that increases with exercise. The average prevalence of asthma in the surveyed cities was 13% and the main symptoms indicators of risk of asthma in school children were: recurrent wheezing, breathlessness, chest tightness and recurrent cough.

  3. Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.

    1998-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics

  4. Estimation of HPV prevalence in young women in Scotland; monitoring of future vaccine impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanagh, Kimberley; Sinka, Katy; Cuschieri, Kate; Love, John; Potts, Alison; Pollock, Kevin G J; Cubie, Heather; Donaghy, Martin; Robertson, Chris

    2013-11-05

    Estimation of pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV and distribution of HPV types is fundamental to understanding the subsequent impact of HPV vaccination. We describe the type specific prevalence of HPV in females aged 20-21 in Scotland who attended or defaulted from cervical screening using three specimen types; from attenders liquid based cytology and from defaulters urine or self-taken swabs. Residual liquid based cytology samples (n = 2148), collected from women aged 20-21 attending for their first smear were genotyped for HPV. A sample (n = 709) from women who had defaulted from screening was also made available for HPV testing through the use of postal testing kits (either urine samples (n = 378) or self-taken swabs (n = 331)). Estimates of prevalence weighted by deprivation, and for the postal testing kit, also by reminder status and specimen type were calculated for each HPV type. The distribution of HPV types were compared between specimen types and the occurrence of multiple high-risk infections examined. The influence of demographic factors on high-risk HPV positivity and multiple infections was examined via logistic regression. The prevalence of any HPV in young women aged 20-21 was 32.2% for urine, 39.5% for self-taken swab, and 49.4% for LBC specimens. Infection with vaccine specific types (HPV 16, 18) or those associated with cross-protection (HPV 31, 33, 45, 51) was common. Individuals were more likely to test positive for high-risk HPV if they resided in an area of high deprivation or in a rural area. The overall distribution of HPV types did not vary between defaulters and attenders. Multiple infections occurred in 48.1% of high-risk HPV positive individuals. Excluding vaccine types the most common pairing was HPV 56 and 66. Understanding of the pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV in young women puts Scotland in a prime position to assess the early effect of vaccination as the first highly vaccinated cohorts of individuals enter the screening

  5. Prevalence of DSM-IV Disorder in a Representative, Healthy Birth Cohort at School Entry: Sociodemographic Risks and Social Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Alice S.; Wagmiller, Robert J.; Gray, Sarah A. O.; McCarthy, Kimberly J.; Horwitz, Sarah M.; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The aims of this paper are as follows: to present past-year prevalence data for DSM-IV disorders in the early elementary school years; to examine the impact of impairment criteria on prevalence estimates; to examine the relation of sociodemographic and psychosocial risk factors to disorders; and to explore associations between…

  6. The Co-Occurrence of Autism and Birth Defects: Prevalence and Risk in a Population-Based Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schendel, Diana E.; Autry, Andrew; Wines, Roberta; Moore, Cynthia

    2009-01-01

    Aim: To estimate the prevalence of major birth defects among children with autism, the prevalence of autism in children with birth defects, and the risk for autism associated with having birth defects. Method: Retrospective cohort including all children born in Atlanta, GA, USA, 1986 to 1993, who survived to age 3 years and were identified through…

  7. Prevalence of and risk factors for age-related macular degeneration in a multiethnic Asian cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Chui Ming Gemmy; Tai, E Shyong; Kawasaki, Ryo; Tay, Wan Ting; Lee, Jeannette L; Hamzah, Haslina; Wong, Tien Y

    2012-04-01

    To describe the prevalence of and risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in a multiethnic Asian cohort of Chinese, Malay, and Indian persons. In this population-based study, 3172 persons of Chinese, Malay, and Indian ethnicities 40 years and older were included. Participants underwent comprehensive systemic and ocular examination, retinal photography, and laboratory investigations. Early and late AMD signs were graded from retinal photographs. Age-standardized prevalence estimates were calculated using the 2010 Singapore adult population as the standard population. Association with a range of systemic risk factors was analyzed. Of 3172 participants, AMD was present in 211 subjects. Age-standardized prevalence of AMD was 7.0% in persons 40 years and older. The age-standardized prevalence was similar in all 3 Asian ethnic groups: Chinese, 7.3%; Malay, 7.7%; and Indian, 5.7% (P value = .44). The prevalence increased with age and was higher in men. Of the range of risk factors evaluated, only myopic refractive error (Chinese men. The prevalence of AMD was similar in the 3 major ethnic groups in Asia and comparable with white populations. Myopic refractive error was associated with reduced risk of AMD in Chinese men.

  8. New risk estimates at low doses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fry, R.J.M.

    1992-01-01

    The age of molecular radiation epidemiology may be at hand. The techniques are available to establish with the degree of precision required to determine whether agent-specific mutations can be identified consistently. A concerted effort to examine radiation-induced changes in as many relevant genes as possible appears to be justified. Cancers in those exposed to low doses of ionizing radiation should be chosen for the investigation. Parallel studies of radiation-induced cancers in experimental animals would not only complement the human studies, but perhaps reveal approaches to extrapolation of risk estimates across species. A caveat should be added to this optimistic view of what molecular studies might contribute to the knotty problem of risk estimates at low doses. The suggestions are made by one with no expertise in the field of molecular biology

  9. HIV prevalence and sexual risk behaviour among non-injection drug users in Tijuana, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deiss, Robert G; Lozada, Remedios M; Burgos, Jose Luis; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Gallardo, Manuel; Cuevas, Jazmine; Garfein, Richard S

    2012-01-01

    Prior studies estimate HIV prevalence of 4% among injection drug users (IDUs), compared with 0.8% in the general population of Tijuana, Mexico. However, data on HIV prevalence and correlates among non-injecting drug users (NIDUs) are sparse. Individuals were recruited through street outreach for HIV testing and behavioural risk assessment interviews to estimate HIV prevalence and identify associated sexual risk behaviours among NIDUs in Tijuana. Descriptive statistics were used to characterise 'low-risk' NIDUs (drug users who were not commercial sex workers or men who have sex with men). Results showed that HIV prevalence was 3.7% among low-risk NIDUs. During the prior six months, 52% of NIDUs reported having >1 casual partner; 35% reported always using condoms with a casual partner; and 13% and 15%, respectively, reported giving or receiving something in exchange for sex. Women were significantly more likely than men to have unprotected sex with an IDU (pTijuana. Broad interventions including HIV testing, condom promotion and sexual risk reduction should be offered to all drug users in Tijuana.

  10. Metabolic syndrome among urban Indian young adults: prevalence and associated risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manjunath, Dinaker; Uthappa, Chengapp Kechamada; Kattula, Sri Rama; Allam, Ramesh Reddy; Chava, Nalini; Oruganti, Ganesh

    2014-09-01

    We estimated the prevalence of metabolic syndrome among urban Indian young adults (18-25 years) as defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III), Internation Diabetes Federation (IDF), and Indian consensus statement criteria. We included 473 urban young adults through simple random sampling methodology to estimate the prevalence and associated risk factors for metabolic syndrome. Prevalence of metabolic syndrome was estimated to be 3.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2-5.8], 6.6% (95% CI 4.6-9.1), and 8.7% (95% CI 6.4-11.6) using the NCEP ATP III, IDF, and Indian consensus statement criteria, respectively. Men had significantly higher waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, and triglycerides, whereas mean concentrations of both high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and total cholesterol were significantly higher among women. Low HDL-C (38.9%), high blood pressure (26%), and central obesity (16.1%) were the most common component risk factors. Although less than 4% of normal weight adults met the criteria for metabolic syndrome, rates increased in overweight individuals and reached a prevalence of 87% in the obese participants. In all, 61.3% of the total population had one or more risk factors for metabolic syndrome. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome is high among urban young adults in India, and it increased with increase in body mass index (BMI). Each component risk factor in isolated form-increased BMI, smoking, and history of hypertension--is an associated risk factor for metabolic syndrome. Although it is unclear whether metabolic syndrome screening in young Indians as a means to prevent adverse cardiovascular health outcomes is appropriate, healthy lifestyles should nevertheless be encouraged, and young adults should be considered as an important group for cardiovascular risk reduction programs.

  11. MARKET RISK ESTIMATION IN (T+-TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radik B. Begov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Market risk analysis and estimation are presentedin T+ transactionsas they are used within the Moscow Exchange. There is a need to do so as a result of the cut-off of a new REPO product with Central Counterpartner (CCP. Here repurchase agreement goes through the National Clearing Center (NCC, the last being a bank and a clearing structure within the Moscow Exchange group.NCC actsas an intermediary (so called “Central Counterpartner” between trading participants.REPOs with CCP raisecontractor claims and commitments to the CCP which takes the risk of default on commitments from unfair contract side. The REPO with CCP cut-off made ready a technological platform to implement T+2 trades at the Moscow Exchange. As a result of it there appeared the possibility to enter security purchase/sell contracts partially collateralized. All these transactions (the REPO with CCP, T+ made it a must determining security market risks. The paper is aimed at presenting VaR-like risk estimates. The methods used are from the computer fi nance. Unusual TS rate of return indicator is proposed and applied to find optimal portfolios under the Markowitz approach and their VaRs (losses forecasts given the real “big” share price data and various horizons. Portfolio extreme rate and loss forecasting is our goal. To this end the forecasts are computed for three horizons (2, 5 and 10 days and for three significance levels.There were developed R-, Excel- and Bloomberg-basedsoftware tools as needed. The whole range of proposed computing steps and the tables with charts may be considered as candidates to be included in the future market risk standards.Paper results permit capital market participants to choose the correct (as to the required risk level common stocks.

  12. Methods to estimate the genetic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehling, U.H.

    1989-01-01

    The estimation of the radiation-induced genetic risk to human populations is based on the extrapolation of results from animal experiments. Radiation-induced mutations are stochastic events. The probability of the event depends on the dose; the degree of the damage dose not. There are two main approaches in making genetic risk estimates. One of these, termed the direct method, expresses risk in terms of expected frequencies of genetic changes induced per unit dose. The other, referred to as the doubling dose method or the indirect method, expresses risk in relation to the observed incidence of genetic disorders now present in man. The advantage of the indirect method is that not only can Mendelian mutations be quantified, but also other types of genetic disorders. The disadvantages of the method are the uncertainties in determining the current incidence of genetic disorders in human and, in addition, the estimasion of the genetic component of congenital anomalies, anomalies expressed later and constitutional and degenerative diseases. Using the direct method we estimated that 20-50 dominant radiation-induced mutations would be expected in 19 000 offspring born to parents exposed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but only a small proportion of these mutants would have been detected with the techniques used for the population study. These methods were used to predict the genetic damage from the fallout of the reactor accident at Chernobyl in the vicinity of Southern Germany. The lack of knowledge for the interaction of chemicals with ionizing radiation and the discrepancy between the high safety standards for radiation protection and the low level of knowledge for the toxicological evaluation of chemical mutagens will be emphasized. (author)

  13. The prevalence of suicidal behaviour and associated risk factors in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The prevalence of suicidal behaviour and associated risk factors in grade 8 learners in ... of youth who do not present for mental health care in developing countries. ... demographic questionnaires and various psychometric assessment scales. ... Healthcare providers and other professionals, such as school counsellors, ...

  14. Original Article Studies on Prevalence and Risk Factors for Hepatitis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-12-20

    Dec 20, 2011 ... Risk factors such as blood transfusion was 32.0% among male ... females. Unfortunately, the prevalence of HBV appears high among the studied ... form of both acute and chronic viral hepatitis ... of expression for this disease, at this phase the .... Alcohol consumption .... Hepatitis B virus Infection in China.

  15. Prevalence and risks factors of overweight/obesity among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obesity and overweight are lifestyle conditions affecting more than half of the younger adult population. This study determined the prevalence and risks factors of obesity and overweight among undergraduate students in Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana. This institutional based ...

  16. Fibrillin-1 genotype and risk of prevalent hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Jørgen; Berg, Nikolaj D; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Objective. Mutations in the fibrillin-1 gene are the cause of Marfan syndrome. We wanted to investigate the relationship between a mutation in this gene and risk of prevalent hypertension. Methods. In a cross-sectional study, the effect of a G-A substitution in intron 27 in the fibrillin-1 gene (rs...

  17. Prevalence of Cervical Dysplasia and Associated Risk Factors ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Aim: To asess the prevalence and risk factors for abnormal cervical cancer screening amongst patients of ..... IV. 101 (36.1). V. 40 (14.3). Income. Above the poverty line (>4500 naira monthly) ..... and hence tend to have nutritional deficiency of Vitamins A,. C .... Edwards SK, Sonnex C. Influence of genital infection on cervical.

  18. Prevalence and risk factors of hepatitis B virus transmission among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sharing of toothbrushes among siblings was found to be a significantly associated risk factor. Only 6.4% of mothers knew their hepatitis B status. Conclusion: There is a gradual fall in the prevalence of HBsAg in our environment due to HB immunization. Sharing of toothbrushes may be a potent means of transmission of HBV ...

  19. The prevalence and risk factors for gestational diabetes and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: To determine the common diabetes risk factors (or OGTT; the prevalence of GDM; and the maternal and perinatal outcomes of GDM pregnancies in a Nigerian urban antenatal population. Patients and Methods: A retrospective study of pregnant women, who attended antenatal clinic, screened for diabetes ...

  20. Prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors among staff of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-05-19

    May 19, 2014 ... The prevalence of CV risk factors were as follows: Hypertension 84 (40.8%), visceral obesity. 92 (44.7%) .... the university including health center, security unit and ..... and Salako. in a population survey about two decades ago.

  1. Trachoma Prevalence and Risk Factors in Eight Local Government ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    is worst in Anka LGA (7%); whereas knowledge of how to prevent trachoma is generally poor in all the LGAs. Trachoma prevalence and risk factors in eight local government areas of Zamfara state. The burden of active trachoma (TF) in children is low in the surveyed LGAs with the exception of Bungudu and Maradun that ...

  2. Prevalence and risk factors of erectile dysfunction in Niger delta ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Erectile Dysfunction (ED) is one of the major social problems causing significant distress in men. Despite the increasing difficulty in management, knowledge, and understanding of factors responsible for its development are important for prevention and care. Objectives: To assess the prevalence and risk ...

  3. Prevalence, severity and risk factors of allergic disorders among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: To find out the prevalence and risk factors of allergic disorders. Methods: Data ..... with being continuously alert to their eating habits due to fear of allergic ... and fish.6,13,20,23 Genetic factors are known to be incrim- inated with ...

  4. Prevalence and Risk Factors for Brucellosis in Jazan Province ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: Brucellosis is responsible for considerable public health issues involving economic losses due to abortion, loss of milk production and infertility in adult males. The purpose of this study was to determine the sero-prevalence of brucellosis in Jazan Province, Saudi Arabia and assess the possible risk factors.

  5. Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors of Intestinal Helminth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This studydetermined the prevalence and associated risk factors of intestinal helminth infections among school-aged children. ... Using logistic regression, the following factors showed significant effect (p<0.05) as predisposing factors to intestinal helminth infections: water treatment, sanitary habits, refuse disposal, parental ...

  6. Global prevalence and major risk factors of diabetic retinopathy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.W.Y. Yau (Joanne W.); S.L. Rogers (Sophie); Y. Kawasaki; E.L. Lamoureux (Ecosse); J.W. Kowalski (Jonathan); T. Bek (Toke); S.-J. Chen (Shih-Jen); J.M. Dekker (Jacqueline); A.E. Fletcher (Astrid E.); J. Grauslund (Jakob); R.C.G. Haffner; U. Hamman (Ute); M.K. Ikram (Kamran); T. Kayama (Takamasa); B.E.K. Klein (Barbara); B.E.K. Klein (Barbara); S. Krishnaiah (Sannapaneni); K. Mayurasakorn (Korapat); J.P. O'Hare (Joseph); T. Orchard; M. Porta; M. Rema (Mohan); M.S. Roy (Monique); T. Sharma (Tarun); S-M. Saw (Seang-Mei); H. Taylor (Hugh); J.M. Tielsch (James); D. Varma (Dhiraj); J.J. Wang (Jie Jin); N. Wang (Ningli); S. West (Sheila); L. Zu (Liang); M. Yasuda (Maya); X. Zhang (Xinzhi); P. Mitchell (Paul); T.Y. Wong (Tien Yin)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVE - To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - A pooled analysis using individual participant data from population-based studies

  7. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Depression in Ethiopia: A Review ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Depression is the most common and disabling mental illness in the globe. It accounts for about 6.5% of the burden of diseases in Ethiopia. Regardless of its severity and relapse rate, there are no synthesized evidences about its prevalence and potential risk factors in Ethiopia. The aim of this review was thus to ...

  8. Prevalence and risk factors of asymptomatic malaria among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Enhanced malaria control has resulted in its reduction in some areas of Sub Saharan Africa including Rwanda. However, asymptomatic hosts serve as a reservoir for the malaria parasite for communities. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of malaria parasites and risk factors associated ...

  9. Prevalence and associated risk factors of ante‑partum hemorrhage ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and associated risk factors of antepartum hemorrhage (APH) in the third trimester of Arab women residing in Qatar and their neonatal outcome. Design and Setting: A prospective hospital‑based study was conducted in the Women's Hospital and Maternity ...

  10. Sero-prevalence and associated risk factors of contagious Caprine ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sero-prevalence and associated risk factors of contagious Caprine pleuropneumonia in goats in selected districts of bale zone pastoral area, south eastern Ethiopia. ... Multivariable logistic regression statistical analysis revealed that age category, flock size, newly introduced goats and accessibility to veterinary service ...

  11. Serological prevalence and associated risk factors of Salmonella ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... to identify risk factors associated with Salmonella infections in chickens. The overall sero-prevalence established using serum plate agglutination test was 16.7% (98/588). Using a univariate logistic analysis, factors significantly associated with Salmonella infections at p < 0.05 were presence of other birds in poultry farms ...

  12. Prevalence and Risk Factors for Enuresis in Children | Adekanmbi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using logistic regression, maternal history, sibling history of bedwetting, snoring and heavy supper are strong determinants of bedwetting. Enuresis is a common problem among primary school pupils. Intensive public enlightenment is needed. Key words: Enuresis, risk factors, prevalence, children, social-stigma ...

  13. Prevalence of camel Trypanosomosis and its associated risk factors ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A cross-sectional study coupled with questionnaire survey was conducted to determine the prevalence of camel trypanosomosis and assess associated risk factors in Moyale district, Borena Zone, Oromia region, southern Ethiopia from November 2014 to April 2015. Blood samples were collected from randomly selected ...

  14. Constraints to estimating the prevalence of trypanosome infections in East African zebu cattle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cox Andrew P

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In East Africa, animal trypanosomiasis is caused by many tsetse transmitted protozoan parasites including Trypanosoma vivax, T. congolense and subspecies of T. brucei s.l. (T. b. brucei and zoonotic human infective T. b. rhodesiense that may co-circulate in domestic and wild animals. Accurate species-specific prevalence measurements of these parasites in animal populations are complicated by mixed infections of trypanosomes within individual hosts, low parasite densities and difficulties in conducting field studies. Many Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR based diagnostic tools are available to characterise and quantify infection in animals. These are important for assessing the contribution of infections in animal reservoirs and the risk posed to humans from zoonotic trypanosome species. New matrices for DNA capture have simplified large scale field PCR analyses but few studies have examined the impact of these techniques on prevalence estimations. Results The Whatman FTA matrix has been evaluated using a random sample of 35 village zebu cattle from a population naturally exposed to trypanosome infection. Using a generic trypanosome-specific PCR, prevalence was systematically evaluated. Multiple PCR samples taken from single FTA cards demonstrated that a single punch from an FTA card is not sufficient to confirm the infectivity status of an individual animal as parasite DNA is unevenly distributed across the card. At low parasite densities in the host, this stochastic sampling effect results in underestimation of prevalence based on single punch PCR testing. Repeated testing increased the estimated prevalence of all Trypanosoma spp. from 9.7% to 86%. Using repeat testing, a very high prevalence of pathogenic trypanosomes was detected in these local village cattle: T. brucei (34.3%, T. congolense (42.9% and T. vivax (22.9%. Conclusions These results show that, despite the convenience of Whatman FTA cards and specific PCR based

  15. Constraints to estimating the prevalence of trypanosome infections in East African zebu cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Andrew P; Tosas, Olga; Tilley, Aimee; Picozzi, Kim; Coleman, Paul; Hide, Geoff; Welburn, Susan C

    2010-09-06

    In East Africa, animal trypanosomiasis is caused by many tsetse transmitted protozoan parasites including Trypanosoma vivax, T. congolense and subspecies of T. brucei s.l. (T. b. brucei and zoonotic human infective T. b. rhodesiense) that may co-circulate in domestic and wild animals. Accurate species-specific prevalence measurements of these parasites in animal populations are complicated by mixed infections of trypanosomes within individual hosts, low parasite densities and difficulties in conducting field studies. Many Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) based diagnostic tools are available to characterise and quantify infection in animals. These are important for assessing the contribution of infections in animal reservoirs and the risk posed to humans from zoonotic trypanosome species. New matrices for DNA capture have simplified large scale field PCR analyses but few studies have examined the impact of these techniques on prevalence estimations. The Whatman FTA matrix has been evaluated using a random sample of 35 village zebu cattle from a population naturally exposed to trypanosome infection. Using a generic trypanosome-specific PCR, prevalence was systematically evaluated. Multiple PCR samples taken from single FTA cards demonstrated that a single punch from an FTA card is not sufficient to confirm the infectivity status of an individual animal as parasite DNA is unevenly distributed across the card. At low parasite densities in the host, this stochastic sampling effect results in underestimation of prevalence based on single punch PCR testing. Repeated testing increased the estimated prevalence of all Trypanosoma spp. from 9.7% to 86%. Using repeat testing, a very high prevalence of pathogenic trypanosomes was detected in these local village cattle: T. brucei (34.3%), T. congolense (42.9%) and T. vivax (22.9%). These results show that, despite the convenience of Whatman FTA cards and specific PCR based detection tools, the chronically low parasitaemias in

  16. A review of radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-06-01

    Three authoritative reports (UNSCEAR-1988, BEIR-V-1990, and ICRP-1990 Recommendations) on risk estimates have been reviewed and compared to previous risk estimates published by the same organizations. The ICRP now uses the term 'probability' in place of the term 'risk'. For fatal cancers, the new ICRP probability estimates are 5.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 4.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For serious hereditary effects summarized over all generations, the ICRP probability coefficients are 1.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 0.6 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For prenatal irradiation, at 8 - 15 weeks after conception, there may be a decrease of 30 I.Q. points per Sv and a risk of cancer which may lie in the range of 2 to 10 x 10 -2 Sv -1 . Based mainly on the new probability estimates the ICRP recommends a limit on effective dose of 20 mSv per year, averaged over 5 years (100 mSv in 5 years) with the further provision that the effective dose should not exceed 50 mSv in any single year. For public exposure the ICRP recommends an annual limit on effective dose of 1 mSv. However, in special circumstances, a higher value of effective dose could be allowed in a single year provided that the average over 5 five years does not exceed 1 mSv per year. Once pregnancy has been declared, the conceptus should be protected by applying a supplementary equivalent dose limit to the surface of the woman's abdomen of 2 mSv for the remainder of the pregnancy and by limiting intakes of radionuclides to about 1/20 of the annual limit on intake. A brief survey of epidemiological studies of workers and the risks from radon and thoron progeny is also included. (110 refs, 29 tabs., 10 figs.)

  17. Estimation of the Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in South Korea, Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantelis, Peter C.; Kennedy, Daniel P.

    2016-01-01

    Two-phase designs in epidemiological studies of autism prevalence introduce methodological complications that can severely limit the precision of resulting estimates. If the assumptions used to derive the prevalence estimate are invalid or if the uncertainty surrounding these assumptions is not properly accounted for in the statistical inference…

  18. Prevalence of Gestational Diabetes and Risk of Progression to Type 2 Diabetes: a Global Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yeyi; Zhang, Cuilin

    2016-01-01

    Despite the increasing epidemic of diabetes mellitus affecting populations at different life stages, the global burden of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is not well assessed. Systematically synthesized data on global prevalence estimates of GDM are lacking, particularly among developing countries. The hyperglycemic intrauterine environment as exemplified in pregnancies complicated by GDM might not only reflect but also fuel the epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We comprehensively reviewed available data in the past decade in an attempt to estimate the contemporary global prevalence of GDM by country and region. We reviewed the risk of progression from GDM to T2DM as well. Synthesized data demonstrate wide variations in both prevalence estimates of GDM and the risk of progression from GDM to T2DM. Direct comparisons of GDM burden across countries or regions are challenging given the great heterogeneity in screening approaches, diagnostic criteria, and underlying population characteristics. In this regard, collaborative efforts to estimate global GDM prevalence would be a large but important leap forward. Such efforts may have substantial public health implications in terms of informing health policy makers and healthcare providers for disease burden and for developing more targeted and effective diabetes prevention and management strategies globally.

  19. Cardiovascular Risks Associated with Incident and Prevalent Periodontal Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yau-Hua; Chasman, Daniel I; Buring, Julie E; Rose, Lynda; Ridker, Paul M

    2014-01-01

    Aim While prevalent periodontal disease associates with cardiovascular risk, little is known about how incident periodontal disease influences future vascular risk. We compared effects of incident versus prevalent periodontal disease in developing major cardiovascular diseases (CVD), myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke and total CVD. Material and Methods In a prospective cohort of 39863 predominantly white women, age ≥ 45 years and free of cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed for an average of 15.7 years. Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying periodontal status (prevalent [18%], incident [7.3%] vs. never [74.7%]) were used to assess future cardiovascular risks. Results Incidence rates of all CVD outcomes were higher in women with prevalent or incident periodontal disease. For women with incident periodontal disease, risk factor adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.42 (95% CI, 1.14–1.77) for major CVD, 1.72 (1.25–2.38) for MI, 1.41(1.02–1.95) for ischemic stroke, and 1.27(1.06–1.52) for total CVD. For women with prevalent periodontal disease, adjusted HRs were 1.14 (1.00–1.31) for major CVD, 1.27 (1.04–1.56) for MI, 1.12(0.91–1.37) for ischemic stroke, and 1.15(1.03–1.28) for total CVD. Conclusion New cases of periodontal disease, not just those that are pre-existing, place women at significantly elevated risks for future cardiovascular events. PMID:25385537

  20. Gambling Disorder and Minority Populations: Prevalence and Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okuda, Mayumi; Liu, Weiwei; Cisewski, Jodi A; Segura, Luis; Storr, Carla L; Martins, Silvia S

    2016-09-01

    Previous studies demonstrate disparities in health and health services including gambling disorders (GD) among ethnic and racial minority groups. In this review, we summarize studies examining the prevalence of GD across different ethnic and racial minorities. We describe the sociodemographic subgroup variations at heightened risk for GD and factors associated with GD in racial and ethnic minority groups including gambling availability, comorbid substance use, psychiatric conditions, stress, acculturation, and differences in cultural values and cognitions. We found that research of GD among minority groups is scant, and the prevalence of GD among these groups is at a magnitude of concern. Racial and ethnic minority status in it of itself is not a risk factor for GD but may be a proxy for underlying potential risk factors. The need for prevention and treatment programs for different cultural group remains unmet.

  1. Prevalence and risk factors of asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghafarnezhad M

    2001-07-01

    Full Text Available Asymptomatic bacteriuria is prevalent during pregnancy. It can lead to pyelonephritis, premature pregnancy and low birth weight. In this prospective study, to determine prevalence and risk factors of asymptomatic bacteriuria, 205 consecutive pregnant women who visited our prenatal care clinic in Mirza-Koochakkhan Hospital and had no urinary symptom were entered. Patients data were recorded using a questionnaire and urine samples were obtained for urinalysis and urine culture. We analysed data by using fisher exact and chi-squared test. 14 cases had positive urine culture (6.8%. Significant correlation was seen between asymptomatic bacteriuria and age, parity, past history of kidney stone, pyelonephritis, urinary tract infection, preterm delivery and pyuria pvalue <0.05. We suggest routine urine culture in first visit of high risk and 16th week of low risk pregnancies.

  2. Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

    2018-06-01

    Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Prevalence and Risk Factor of Neck Pain in Elderly Korean Community Residents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Kyeong Min; Cho, Nam H.; Lim, Seung Hun

    2013-01-01

    Neck pain is a common musculoskeletal condition, which causes substantial medical cost. In Korea, prevalence of neck pain in community based population, especially in elderly subjects, has scarcely been reported. We evaluated the prevalence, the severity and the risk factors of neck pain in elderly Korean community residents. Data for neck pain were collected for 1,655 subjects from a rural farming community. The point, 6-months and cumulative lifetime prevalence of neck pain was obtained in addition to the measurement of the severity of neck pain. The mean age of the study subjects was 61 yr and 57% were females. The lifetime prevalence of neck pain was 20.8% with women having a higher prevalence. The prevalence did not increase with age, and the majority of individuals had low-intensity/low-disability pain. Subjects with neck pain had a significantly worse SF-12 score in all domains except for mental health. The prevalence of neck pain was significantly associated with female gender, obesity and smoking. This is the first large-scale Korean study estimating the prevalence of neck pain in elderly population. Although the majority of individuals had low-intensity/low-disability pain, subjects with neck pain had a significantly worse SF-12 score indicating that neck pain has significant health impact. PMID:23678258

  4. Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, Carolyn; Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K

    2017-01-01

    Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature...... review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers...... and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality...

  5. Prevalence and risk factors of syphilis infection among drug addicts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuhlmann Thomas

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent epidemiological data show an increased trend of official estimates for syphilis infection in the general population. Many of the infected cases remain undetected leaving an underestimation of the true prevalence of syphilis in the general population, but also among subpopulations such as illicit drug users. There is limited epidemiological data published on the proportion and risk factors of syphilis infections associated with illicit drug abuse. Methods Illicit drug addicts (n = 1223 in inpatients units in Germany were screened (2000–01 for syphilis and interviewed regarding patterns of drug use and sexual behaviour. TPHA-test for initial screening and FTA-ABS-IgM test in TPHA-positive patients were used. Results In total, TPHA-tests were positive in 39 (3.3% and 7 patients (0.6% were IgM positive. The prevalence rate for syphilis in males was 1.9% and for women it was 8.5%. Female patients were 4.56 (CI 95% 2.37–8.78 times more likely to have a positive TPHA test than males. Sexual behaviours such as high number of sexual partners, sex for drugs/money, sex on the first day were associated with syphilis infection only in women. Females with frequent sex for drugs or money had 4.31 (CI 95% 2.32–8.52 times more likely a reactive TPHA test than remaining patients. Neither the sociodemographic factors nor sexual behaviour were statistically significant associated with syphilis infection among men at all. Conclusion Our data suggest the need for screening for syphilis among these illicit drug users in inpatient settings, in particular among sexual active women. This conclusion is corroborated by the finding of increasing numbers of syphilis infections in the general population. The identification of syphilis cases among drug addicts would give treatment options to these individuals and would help to reduce the spread of infection in this population, but also a spread into heterosexual populations related to

  6. Chronic kidney disease in dogs in UK veterinary practices: prevalence, risk factors, and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, D G; Elliott, J; Church, D B; McGreevy, P D; Thomson, P C; Brodbelt, D C

    2013-01-01

    The prevalence for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dogs varies widely (0.05-3.74%). Identified risk factors include advancing age, specific breeds, small body size, and periodontal disease. To estimate the prevalence and identify risk factors associated with CKD diagnosis and survival in dogs. Purebred dogs were hypothesized to have higher CKD risk and poorer survival characteristics than crossbred dogs. A merged clinical database of 107,214 dogs attending 89 UK veterinary practices over a 2-year period (January 2010-December 2011). A longitudinal study design estimated the apparent prevalence (AP) whereas the true prevalence (TP) was estimated using Bayesian analysis. A nested case-control study design evaluated risk factors. Survival analysis used the Kaplan-Meier survival curve method and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. The CKD AP was 0.21% (95% CI: 0.19-0.24%) and TP was 0.37% (95% posterior credibility interval 0.02-1.44%). Significant risk factors included increasing age, being insured, and certain breeds (Cocker Spaniel, Cavalier King Charles Spaniel). Cardiac disease was a significant comorbid disorder. Significant clinical signs included halitosis, weight loss, polyuria/polydipsia, urinary incontinence, vomiting, decreased appetite, lethargy, and diarrhea. The median survival time from diagnosis was 226 days (95% CI 112-326 days). International Renal Interest Society stage and blood urea nitrogen concentration at diagnosis were significantly associated with hazard of death due to CKD. Chronic kidney disease compromises dog welfare. Increased awareness of CKD risk factors and association of blood biochemistry results with survival time should facilitate diagnosis and optimize case management to improve animal survival and welfare. Copyright © 2013 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  7. A prospective longitudinal study to estimate the prevalence of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sally S. Zahra

    2016-05-13

    May 13, 2016 ... reasoning, abstract/visual reasoning, quantitative reasoning and short term ... bined TolterodineTM-selective anticholinergic (tablets 2mg) taken orally one hour ..... The result of almost similar prevalence of overweight and obesity among ... However, we must draw attention that although our results show a ...

  8. [Estimates of the prevalence of child malnutrition in Brazilian municipalities in 2006].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benício, Maria Helena D'Aquino; Martins, Ana Paula Bortoletto; Venancio, Sonia Isoyama; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de

    2013-06-01

    To estimate the prevalence of malnutrition in children for all Brazilian municipalities. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to estimate the individual probability of malnutrition in 5,507 Brazilian municipalities in 2006, in terms of predictive factors grouped according to hierarchical levels. The response variable was child malnutrition (children aged from six to 59 months with height for age and sex below -2 z-scores, according to the World Health Organization standard). The predictive variables were determinants of malnutrition measured similarly by the National Demographics and Health Survey-2006 and the Sample from the 2000 Demographic Census. At level 1 (individual): sex and age, level 2 (household): socioeconomic variables, water and indoor plumbing, urban or rural area and level 3 (municipal): location of the municipality and coverage of the Family Health Strategy (FHS) in 2006. The study detected a statistically significant chance of malnutrition in male children, those living in households with two or more individuals per room, those belonging to the lowest quintiles of the socioeconomic score, those with three or more children under five in the household, those with no access to running water or located in the North. There was a negative dose-response association between FHS coverage and the chance of malnutrition (p = 0.007). FHS coverage in the municipality equal to or greater than 70% showed a 45% reduction in the chance of infant malnutrition. Estimates of the prevalence of child malnutrition show that most of the cities have the risk of malnutrition under control, very low or low. Risks of greater magnitude exist only in 158 municipalities in the North Region. Childhood malnutrition as a public health problem is concentrated in the cities of the North region, where FHS coverage is lower. A protective effect of FHS in relation to child malnutrition was found in the country as a whole, irrespective of other determinants of the problem.

  9. Prevalence of risk factors for coronary artery disease in an urban Indian population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekhri, T; Kanwar, R S; Wilfred, R; Chugh, P; Chhillar, M; Aggarwal, R; Sharma, Y K; Sethi, J; Sundriyal, J; Bhadra, K; Singh, S; Rautela, N; Chand, Tek; Singh, M; Singh, S K

    2014-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD) in government employees across India. Methods The study population consisted of government employees in different parts of India ({n=10 642 men and n=1966 women; age 20–60 years}) and comprised various ethnic groups living in different environmental conditions. Recruitment was carried out in 20 cities across 14 states, and in one union territory. All selected individuals were subjected to a detailed questionnaire, medical examinations and anthropometric measurements. Blood samples were collected for blood glucose and serum lipid profile estimation, and resting ECG was recorded. Results were analysed using appropriate statistical tools. Results The study revealed that 4.6% of the study population had a family history of premature CAD. The overall prevalence of diabetes was 16% (5.6% diagnosed during the study and the remaining 10.4% already on medication). Hypertension was present in 21% of subjects. The prevalence of dyslipidemia was significantly high, with 45.6% of study subjects having a high total cholesterol/high density lipoprotein ratio. Overall, 78.6% subjects had two or more risk factors for CAD. Conclusions The present study demonstrates a high prevalence of CAD risk factors in the Indian urban population. Therefore, there is an immediate need to initiate measures to raise awareness of these risk factors so that individuals at high risk for future CAD can be managed. PMID:25488095

  10. A meta-regression analysis of 41 Australian problem gambling prevalence estimates and their relationship to total spending on electronic gaming machines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markham, Francis; Young, Martin; Doran, Bruce; Sugden, Mark

    2017-05-23

    Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM) and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs) and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by the models (I 2  ≥ 0.97; R 2  ≤ 0.01). The

  11. A meta-regression analysis of 41 Australian problem gambling prevalence estimates and their relationship to total spending on electronic gaming machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Markham

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. Methods A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Results Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by

  12. Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Prevalence Data (2011 to Present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to present. BRFSS SMART MMSA Prevalence combined land line and cell phone data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral...

  13. Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) County Prevalence Data (2011 to 2012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to 2012. BRFSS SMART County Prevalence combined land line and cell phone data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral...

  14. Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

    2010-08-01

    *Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems.

  15. Prevalence of cancer risk factors among women radiologists and radiology assistants in Lithuania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samerdokiene, V.; Kurtinaitis, J.; Atkocius, V. and others

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the work was to study potential cancer risk factors among radiologists and non-radiologists in Lithuania. Cancer risk factors were investigated among female medical staff at the departments of ionizing (243, 33.33%) and non-ionizing environment (486, 66.67%). The questionnaire covered the diet, lifestyle, reproductive factors as well as the demographic and physical characteristics. Univariate analysis was done separately for physicians and nurses. Each of risk factors was evaluated in stratified analysis for unequal ORs using Mantel-Haenszel estimate control for age and occupation. Evaluation of features of risk factors among radiologists vs. non-radiologists has shown that smoking was most the prevalent risk factor among radiologists and radiology assistants. Despite the relatively low prevalence, the questionnaire data showed the higher frequency of smoking among radiologists (OR = 2.78, 95% CI 1.12-6.87) and radiology assistants (OR = 2.25, 95% 1.38-3.66) compared to non-radiologists. The prevalence of non-users and occasional users was 74% to 66%, respectively. Alcohol use by smoking among radiologists was influenced insignificantly. The cohort of radiologists in Lithuania offer an opportunity for obtaining direct observational evidence on health effects associated with chronic low-dose radiation exposure. The data on possible cancer risk factors can be helpful for validation of the risks in future. (author)

  16. Prevalence and risk factors of urinary incontinence in Chinese women: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Jing; Yang, Peng; Zhang, Yi; Li, Xinyu; Wang, Quanyi; Lu, Yongxian

    2015-03-01

    To estimate the current prevalence rate of urinary incontinence (UI) and to identify risk factors in Chinese women, we conducted a population-based survey in 3058 women in Beijing, China, in 2009. The prevalence rate of UI was estimated to be 22.1%, with stress UI (12.9%) being more prevalent than urgency UI (1.7%) and mixed UI (7.5%). The prevalence rates of UI, urgency UI, and mixed UI increased with age, with the highest recorded in participants aged ≥70 years. However, stress UI was most commonly seen in participants aged 50 to 69 years. Risk factors for UI included aging, lower education background, older age of menarche, menstrual disorder, pregnancy history, episiotomy, chronic pelvic pain, gynecological disease, other chronic diseases, constipation, fecal incontinence, lower daily water intake, and frequency of high protein intake. UI is a common disorder in Chinese women, and many risk factors are able to affect the development of UI. © 2011 APJPH.

  17. Worldwide prevalence and risk factors for feline hyperthyroidism: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Joanne L; Lobetti, Remo G; Schoeman, Johan P

    2014-11-14

    Since first reported in the late 1970s, there has been a steady but dramatic increase in the worldwide prevalence of hyperthyroidism in cats. It is now regarded as the most common feline endocrine disorder, with diabetes mellitus coming a close second. Not only is there evidence for an increased worldwide prevalence of feline hyperthyroidism, but also for geographical variation in the prevalence of the disease. Despite its frequency, the underlying cause(s) of this common disease is or are not known, and therefore prevention of the disease is not possible. Due to the multiple risk factors that have been described for feline hyperthyroidism, however, it is likely that more than one factor is involved in its pathogenesis. Continuous, lifelong exposure to environmental thyroid-disruptor chemicals or goitrogens in food or water, acting together or in an additive fashion, may lead to euthyroid goitre and ultimately to autonomous adenomatous hyperplasia, thyroid adenoma and hyperthyroidism. This review aims to summarise the available published evidence for the changes observed in the worldwide prevalence of the disease, as well as risk factors that may contribute to development of hyperthyroidism in susceptible cats.

  18. Worldwide prevalence and risk factors for feline hyperthyroidism: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanne L. McLean

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Since first reported in the late 1970s, there has been a steady but dramatic increase in the worldwide prevalence of hyperthyroidism in cats. It is now regarded as the most common feline endocrine disorder, with diabetes mellitus coming a close second. Not only is there evidence for an increased worldwide prevalence of feline hyperthyroidism, but also for geographical variation in the prevalence of the disease. Despite its frequency, the underlying cause(s of this common disease is or are not known, and therefore prevention of the disease is not possible. Due to the multiple risk factors that have been described for feline hyperthyroidism, however, it is likely that more than one factor is involved in its pathogenesis. Continuous, lifelong exposure to environmental thyroid-disruptor chemicals or goitrogens in food or water, acting together or in an additive fashion, may lead to euthyroid goitre and ultimately to autonomous adenomatous hyperplasia, thyroid adenoma and hyperthyroidism. This review aims to summarise the available published evidence for the changes observed in the worldwide prevalence of the disease, as well as risk factors that may contribute to development of hyperthyroidism in susceptible cats.

  19. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Hepatitis B Virus Infection in Bahrain, 2000 through 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janahi, Essam M.

    2014-01-01

    Hepatitis B infection is one of the world's major infectious diseases with about 350 million chronic carriers. Because no data is published on the prevalence and risk factors of this important disease in Bahrain, this article evaluates the available data from 2000 to 2010 to estimate the prevalence of the infection and to evaluate the risk factors. Epidemiologic data on HBV cases were collected from the major hospitals and health centers in Bahrain and statistically analyzed. Over this indicated decade, 877,892 individuals were screened for HBV infection and 5055 positive cases were reported in Bahrain. The prevalence of HBV infection during that period was 0.58%. Although there was no significant difference in the prevalence over the period of 10 years, the actual number of positive cases has almost doubled in the later years especially in 2007 and 2008. The prevalence was significantly higher among males (62.3%; Pcountries which are highly endemic for HBV, namely India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia and Ethiopia. Dental procedures and surgical operations were the main risk factors of infection as 37.2% and 35.6% of the patients were probably infected through this route. The prevalence of hepatitis B virus infection in Bahrain indicates that Bahrain had low HBV endemicity for the last 10 years (2000–2010). Our study verifies the significant role played by expatriates/immigrants in the present epidemiology of hepatitis B in Bahrain. Increasing HBV vaccination of high risk groups, active educational and media campaign, screening HBV infection during pregnancy, and surveillance of hepatitis B infected individuals will further decrease the prevalence of the disease in Bahrain. PMID:24498341

  20. HIV in Indian prisons: Risk behaviour, prevalence, prevention & treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Dolan, Kate; Larney, Sarah

    2010-01-01

    Background & Objectives: HIV is a major health challenge for prison authorities. HIV in prisons has implications for HIV in the general community. The aim of this paper was to gather information on HIV risk, prevalence, prevention and treatment in prisons in India. Methods: Relevant published and unpublished reports and information were sought in order to provide a coherent picture of the current situation relating to HIV prevention, treatment and care in prisons in India. Information covered...

  1. Improving estimates of the prevalence of Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting among migrants in Western countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Livia Elisa Ortensi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting (FGM/C is an emerging topic in immigrant countries as a consequence of the increasing proportion of African women in overseas communities. Objective: While the prevalence of FGM/C is routinely measured in practicing countries, the prevalence of the phenomenon in western countries is substantially unknown, as no standardized methods exist yet for immigrant countries. The aim of this paper is to present an improved method of indirect estimation of the prevalence of FGM/C among first generation migrants based on a migrant selection hypothesis. A criterion to assess reliability of indirect estimates is also provided. Methods: The method is based on data from Demographic Health Surveys (DHS and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS. Migrants' Selection Hypothesis is used to correct national prevalence estimates and obtain an improved estimation of prevalence among overseas communities. Results: The application of the selection hypothesis modifies national estimates, usually predicting a lower occurrence of FGM/C among immigrants than in their respective practicing countries. A comparison of direct and indirect estimations confirms that the method correctly predicts the direction of the variation in the expected prevalence and satisfactorily approximates direct estimates. Conclusions: Given its wide applicability, this method would be a useful instrument to estimate FGM/C occurrence among first generation immigrants and provide corresponding support for policies in countries where information from ad hoc surveys is unavailable.

  2. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Central Venous Stenosis among Prevalent Hemodialysis Patients, a Single Center Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osman, Osama O; El-Magzoub, Abdul-Rahman A; Elamin, Sarra

    2014-01-01

    Central vein stenosis (CVS) is a common complication of central venous catheter (CVC) insertion. In this study we evaluated the prevalence and risk factors of CVS among hemodialysis (HD) patients in a single center in Sudan, using Doppler ultrasound as a screening tool. The study included 106 prevalent HD patients. For every patient, we performed Duplex Doppler for the right and left jugular, subclavian and femoral veins. A patient was considered to have hemodynamically significant stenosis if the pre-stenosis to the post-stenosis velocities ratio was ≥ 2.5 or they had complete vein occlusion. Overall, 28.3% of patients had Doppler detected CVS, including 25.5% with hemodynamically significant stenosis and 2.8% with compromised flow. The prevalence of CVS was 68.4% among symptomatic patients compared to 19.5% in asymptomatic patients. The prevalence of CVS among patients with history of 0-1, 2-3 and ≥ 4 central venous catheters was 3.4%, 29.4% and 53.8% respectively (p=0.00). CVS was not more common in patients with history of previous/current jugular or femoral vein catheterization compared to no catheter placement in these veins (28.3% vs 28.6% and 35% vs 26.7% respectively; p >0.1). However, CVS was significantly more common in patients with previous/ current subclavian vein catheterization compared to no catheter placement in this vein (47.8% vs 22.9%, p = 0.02). CVS is highly prevalent among studied HD patients, particularly in the presence of suggestive clinical signs. The number of HD catheter placements and subclavian vein utilization for dialysis access impose a significantly higher risk of CVS.

  3. National South African HIV prevalence estimates robust despite ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Approximately 18% of all people living with HIV in 2013 were estimated to live in South Africa (SA),[1] which ... 1 Research Department of Infection and Population Health, Institute for Global Health, University College London, UK.

  4. Augmented Cross-Sectional Prevalence Testing for Estimating HIV Incidence

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, R.; Lagakos, S. W.

    2010-01-01

    Estimation of an HIV incidence rate based on a cross-sectional sample of individuals evaluated with both a sensitive and less-sensitive diagnostic test offers important advantages to incidence estimation based on a longitudinal cohort study. However, the reliability of the cross-sectional approach has been called into question because of two major concerns. One is the difficulty in obtaining a reliable external approximation for the mean “window period” between detectability of HIV infection ...

  5. Scabies and impetigo prevalence and risk factors in Fiji: a national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romani, Lucia; Koroivueta, Josefa; Steer, Andrew C; Kama, Mike; Kaldor, John M; Wand, Handan; Hamid, Mohammed; Whitfeld, Margot J

    2015-03-01

    Scabies is recognised as a major public health problem in many countries, and is responsible for significant morbidity due to secondary bacterial infection of the skin causing impetigo, abscesses and cellulitis, that can in turn lead to serious systemic complications such as septicaemia, kidney disease and, potentially, rheumatic heart disease. Despite the apparent burden of disease in many countries, there have been few large-scale surveys of scabies prevalence or risk factors. We undertook a population-based survey in Fiji of scabies and impetigo to evaluate the magnitude of the problem and inform public health strategies. A total of 75 communities, including villages and settlements in both urban and rural areas, were randomly selected from 305 communities across the four administrative divisions, and all residents in each location were invited to participate in skin examination by trained personnel. The study enrolled 10,887 participants. The prevalence of scabies was 23.6%, and when adjusted for age structure and geographic location based on census data, the estimated national prevalence was 18.5%. The prevalence was highest in children aged five to nine years (43.7%), followed by children aged less than five (36.5%), and there was also an indication of prevalence increasing again in older age. The prevalence of scabies was twice as high in iTaukei (indigenous) Fijians compared to Indo-Fijians. The prevalence of impetigo was 19.6%, with a peak in children aged five to nine years (34.2%). Scabies was very strongly associated with impetigo, with an estimated 93% population attributable risk. As far as we are aware, this is the first national survey of scabies and impetigo ever conducted. We found that scabies occurs at high levels across all age groups, ethnicities, and geographical locations. Improved strategies are urgently needed to achieve control of scabies and its complications in endemic communities.

  6. Scabies and impetigo prevalence and risk factors in Fiji: a national survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia Romani

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Scabies is recognised as a major public health problem in many countries, and is responsible for significant morbidity due to secondary bacterial infection of the skin causing impetigo, abscesses and cellulitis, that can in turn lead to serious systemic complications such as septicaemia, kidney disease and, potentially, rheumatic heart disease. Despite the apparent burden of disease in many countries, there have been few large-scale surveys of scabies prevalence or risk factors. We undertook a population-based survey in Fiji of scabies and impetigo to evaluate the magnitude of the problem and inform public health strategies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 75 communities, including villages and settlements in both urban and rural areas, were randomly selected from 305 communities across the four administrative divisions, and all residents in each location were invited to participate in skin examination by trained personnel. The study enrolled 10,887 participants. The prevalence of scabies was 23.6%, and when adjusted for age structure and geographic location based on census data, the estimated national prevalence was 18.5%. The prevalence was highest in children aged five to nine years (43.7%, followed by children aged less than five (36.5%, and there was also an indication of prevalence increasing again in older age. The prevalence of scabies was twice as high in iTaukei (indigenous Fijians compared to Indo-Fijians. The prevalence of impetigo was 19.6%, with a peak in children aged five to nine years (34.2%. Scabies was very strongly associated with impetigo, with an estimated 93% population attributable risk. CONCLUSIONS: As far as we are aware, this is the first national survey of scabies and impetigo ever conducted. We found that scabies occurs at high levels across all age groups, ethnicities, and geographical locations. Improved strategies are urgently needed to achieve control of scabies and its complications in

  7. Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015–2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Molavi Vardanjani

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Materials and Methods: Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR reports for 2003–2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited–time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs. In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Results: Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051–18807, 20964 (15835–28268, and 14485 (11188–19293, respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150–134744 was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55–59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898 was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262–41638. Conclusion: A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

  8. Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015-2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Bagheri-Lankarani, Kamran; Hadipour, Maryam

    2018-01-01

    Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003-2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited-time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051-18807), 20964 (15835-28268), and 14485 (11188-19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150-134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55-59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262-41638). A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

  9. Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015–2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Bagheri-Lankarani, Kamran; Hadipour, Maryam

    2018-01-01

    Background: Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Materials and Methods: Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003–2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited–time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Results: Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051–18807), 20964 (15835–28268), and 14485 (11188–19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150–134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55–59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262–41638). Conclusion: A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors. PMID:29456991

  10. Narrative Review: Sexually Transmitted Diseases and Homeless Youth-What Do We Know About Sexually Transmitted Disease Prevalence and Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caccamo, Alexandra; Kachur, Rachel; Williams, Samantha P

    2017-08-01

    Homelessness affects an estimated 1.6 million US youth annually. Compared with housed youth, homeless youth are more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors, including inconsistent condom use, multiple sex partners, survival sex, and alcohol/drug use, putting them at increased sexually transmitted disease (STD) risk. However, there is no national estimate of STD prevalence among this population. We identified 10 peer-reviewed articles (9 unique studies) reporting STD prevalence among homeless US youth (2000-2015). Descriptive and qualitative analyses identified STD prevalence ranges and risk factors among youth. Eight studies reported specific STD prevalence estimates, mainly chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis. Overall STD prevalence among homeless youth ranged from 6% to 32%. STD rates for girls varied from 16.7% to 46%, and from 9% to 13.1% in boys. Most studies were conducted in the Western United States, with no studies from the Southeast or Northeast. Youths who experienced longer periods of homelessness were more likely to engage in high-risk sexual behaviors. Girls had lower rates of condom use and higher rates of STDs; boys were more likely to engage in anal and anonymous sex. Additionally, peer social networks contributed to protective effects on individual sexual risk behavior. Sexually transmitted disease prevalence estimates among homeless youth fluctuated greatly by study. Sexually transmitted disease risk behaviors are associated with unmet survival needs, length of homelessness, and influence of social networks. To promote sexual health and reduce STD rates, we need better estimates of STD prevalence, more geographic diversity of studies, and interventions addressing the behavioral associations identified in our review.

  11. Depression in Chinese men undergoing different assisted reproductive technique treatments: prevalence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Li; Zhang, Yuanzhen; Zeng, Dan; Li, Fei; Cui, Dan

    2013-09-01

    To explore the prevalence and risk factors for depression in men undergoing different assisted reproductive technique (ART) treatments in Chinese population. This was a prospective study of 844 men undergoing ART treatments. All men were distributed to four groups, according to they received treatments. The treatments included IUI (intrauterine insemination), IVF(in vitro fertilization), ICSI(intra cytoplasmatic sperm injection) and TESA/PESA (percutaneous epididymal sperm aspiration/testicular sperm aspiration). Their symptoms of depression were measured with use of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies of Depression scale(CES-D). Data were collected about age, BMI, education, duration of marriage, duration of infertility, smoking, type of infertility, infertility causes, history of ejaculation failure, and financial burden of the treatment. We estimated the prevalence of depressive symptom in men undergoing different ART and used logistic regression models to identify risk factors for depression in different groups. The overall prevalence of depression was 13.3 % for men undergoing ART treatments: 14.5 % of IUI group, 12.4 % of IVF group, 19.2 % of ICSI group and 6.2 % of TESA/PESA group. Prevalence of depression among IUI group, IVF group and ICSI group were not significantly different. For IUI group, the factors were found to increase depression risk were treatment financial burden and duration of marriage, to decrease depression risk was age. For IVF group, the risk factors independently associated with depression were both male and female infertility, unexplained infertility, and history of ejaculation failure. In a sample of Chinese men undergoing ART treatments, the prevalence of depression was higher than other country. The risk factors for depression varied in different ART treatments groups. when routine screening to identify the sub-group of vulnerable men which need counselling before ART treatments, we should also consider which pattern of ART

  12. Prevalence and risk factors of obesity among school-aged children in Xi'an, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Xiaoqing; Yin, Chunyan; Chang, Ming; Xiao, Yanfeng

    2012-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence and the risk factors associated with obesity among school-aged children in Xi'an city. The body mass index of 6,740 children aged 7-18 years was compared with the Working Group on Obesity in China cut-off value to estimate the prevalence of obesity. A case-control study of obese and non-obese children was carried out to study risk factors for obesity. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect information on possible risk factors causing obesity. Univariate analysis was performed first to compare the distribution of risk factors between cases and controls. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to assess independent risk factors of obesity. The results showed that the overall prevalence of obesity among school-aged children was 4.11% (4.63% for males and 3.57% for females). A total of 516 subjects (258 pairs of cases and controls) were included in the final analysis. High maternal education and a longer sleeping time were shown to be protective factors against obesity (odds ratio [OR] 0.148, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.074-0.296 and OR 0.472, 95% CI 0.342-0.652, respectively). Whereas family history of diabetes (OR 5.498, 95% CI 2.606-11.600), parental overweight (OR 3.720, 95% CI 2.068-6.689), and watching television, playing video games, and using computers (OR 1.564, 95% CI 1.133-2.159) were associated with a higher obesity risk. The prevalence of childhood obesity in Xi'an has become a concern, and sleeping time, sedentary behavior, and family factors have pronounced effects on the prevalence of obesity.

  13. Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-09-01

    Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

  14. Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

    2011-07-01

    We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

  15. A New Model for the Estimation of Breast Cancer Risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Giger, Maryellen Lissak

    2001-01-01

    ... for use in estimating risk of breast cancer. The specific aims include 1. Creating a database of mammograms, along with tabulated clinical information of women at low risk and high risk for breast cancer; 2...

  16. Multiple imputation to account for missing data in a survey: estimating the prevalence of osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kmetic, Andrew; Joseph, Lawrence; Berger, Claudie; Tenenhouse, Alan

    2002-07-01

    Nonresponse bias is a concern in any epidemiologic survey in which a subset of selected individuals declines to participate. We reviewed multiple imputation, a widely applicable and easy to implement Bayesian methodology to adjust for nonresponse bias. To illustrate the method, we used data from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study, a large cohort study of 9423 randomly selected Canadians, designed in part to estimate the prevalence of osteoporosis. Although subjects were randomly selected, only 42% of individuals who were contacted agreed to participate fully in the study. The study design included a brief questionnaire for those invitees who declined further participation in order to collect information on the major risk factors for osteoporosis. These risk factors (which included age, sex, previous fractures, family history of osteoporosis, and current smoking status) were then used to estimate the missing osteoporosis status for nonparticipants using multiple imputation. Both ignorable and nonignorable imputation models are considered. Our results suggest that selection bias in the study is of concern, but only slightly, in very elderly (age 80+ years), both women and men. Epidemiologists should consider using multiple imputation more often than is current practice.

  17. Prevalence and Extrinsic Risk Factors for Dental Erosion in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mafla, Ana C; Cerón-Bastidas, Ximena A; Munoz-Ceballos, Maria E; Vallejo-Bravo, Diana C; Fajardo-Santacruz, Maria C

    This manuscript examined the prevalence and extrinsic risk factors for dental erosion (DE) in early and middle adolescents in Pasto, Colombia. Dental erosion was evaluated in a random sample of 384 individuals aged 10-15 years attending three primary and high schools in this cross-sectional study. Clinical dental assessment for DE was done using O'Sullivan index. Data on general sociodemographic variables and extrinsic risks factors were obtained. Descriptive and univariate binary logistic regression analyses were performed. Dental erosion was observed in 57.3% of individuals. The univariate binary logistic regression analysis showed that frequency of drinking natural fruit juices (OR 2.670, 95% CI 1.346 - 5.295, P=0.004) and their pH (OR 2.303, 95% CI 1.292 - 4.107, P=0.004) were more associated with the odd of DE in early adolescence. However, a high SES (OR 10.360, 95% CI 3.700 - 29.010, P<0.001) and frequency of snacks with artificial lemon taste (OR 3.659, 95% CI 1.506 - 8.891, P=0.003) were highly associated with the risk of DE in middle adolescence. The results suggest that DE is a prevalent condition in adolescents living in a city in southern Colombia. The transition from early to middle adolescence implies new bio-psychosocial changes, which increase the risk for DE.

  18. [Prevalence of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk in an urban area of Murcia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Ruiz, Virginia E; Paniagua-Urbano, José A; Solé-Agustí, María; Ruiz-Sánchez, Alfonso; Gómez-Marín, José

    2014-11-01

    It is extensive scientific literature that has defined the metabolic syndrome as a precursor of cardiovascular disease. To estimate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk in the population of a basic health area of Murcia. Cross sectional study population of the district health "The Esparragal" random sample of the population between 18 and 86 years living in the area. Personal history were collected and held a relevant clinical, anthropometric data and analytics for the estimation of Metabolic Syndrome and Cardiovascular Risk following criteria dictated by the current literature, adjusted for sex and age. The mean age of the study population was 59.34 ± 14.79 years, with 52.5% males. The overall prevalence of metabolic syndrome criteria World Health Organization is presented 36.8%, a figure increased under International Diabetes Ferderation recommendations to 58.2% and according to National Cholesterol Education Program, an estimated 53.5%. The presentation of this syndrome is slightly higher in men (54.1 versus 52.8 %), and in parallel with increasing age (p < 0.001). The prevalence of people at high risk of cardiovascular disease is 32.1 % (95 % CI 29.4 to 34.8), with 45.2 % (95% CI 41.2 to 49.2) in men and 17.6% (95% CI 14.4 to 20.8) in women. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk in the study population is the highest found in Spain in population studies, indicating an invaluable population on which preventive measures. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  19. HIV in Indian prisons: risk behaviour, prevalence, prevention & treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, Kate; Larney, Sarah

    2010-12-01

    HIV is a major health challenge for prison authorities. HIV in prisons has implications for HIV in the general community. The aim of this paper was to gather information on HIV risk, prevalence, prevention and treatment in prisons in India. Relevant published and unpublished reports and information were sought in order to provide a coherent picture of the current situation relating to HIV prevention, treatment and care in prisons in India. Information covered prison management and population statistics, general conditions in prisons, provision of general medical care and the HIV situation in prison. No data on drug injection in prison were identified. Sex between men was reported to be common in some Indian prisons. A national study found that 1.7 per cent of inmates were HIV positive. Some prisons provided HIV education. Condom provision was considered illegal. A few prisoners received drug treatment for drug use, HIV infection or co-infection with sexually transmitted infections (STIs). HIV prevalence in prisons in India was higher than that in the general community. Regular monitoring of information on HIV risk behaviours and prevalence in Indian prisons is strongly recommended. Evidence based treatment for drug injectors and nation-wide provision of HIV prevention strategies are urgently required. Voluntary counselling, testing and treatment for HIV and STIs should be provided.

  20. Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

    2015-01-01

    In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

  1. HIV prevalence and risk behaviours among foreign migrant women residing in Cape Town, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Loraine; Giorgio, Maggie; Zembe, Yanga; Cheyip, Mireille; Mathews, Catherine

    2014-10-01

    HIV prevalence and risk behaviour among foreign migrants in South Africa has not been explored. This paper describes the effectiveness of respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to recruit foreign migrant women residing in Cape Town, reports HIV prevalence, and describes key characteristics among them. We conducted a biological and behavioural surveillance survey using RDS. After written informed consent, participants completed an audio computer assisted self-interview and provided a dried blood sample for HIV analysis. HIV prevalence was estimated to be 7 % (CI 4.9-9.5) among 935 women. HIV sero-positivity was associated with older age (p = 0.001), country of origin (p used a condom at last sex with a main partner (p = 0.007). Few women reported early sexual debut, or multiple sexual partners. RDS was successful in recruiting foreign migrant women.

  2. The SOGS-RA vs. the MAGS-7: prevalence estimates and classification congruence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhinrichsen-Rohling, Jennifer; Rohling, Martin L; Rohde, Paul; Seeley, John R

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the prevalence rate estimates and congruence in classification status derived from two popular measures of adolescent gambling (SOGS-RA and MAGS-7). Adolescents from three states (Alabama, Mississippi, and Oregon) completed an anonymous questionnaire ( n =1846 high school students total). Results indicate that the prevalence of probable adolescent pathological gambling varied both as a function of instrument and cut-off point utilized for classification (range 1.7%-8.2%). Classification groups (non-problem, at-risk, and problem gamblers) generated by both instruments were found to be associated with reports of gambling frequency, amount of money lost in one gambling occasion, and parental gambling problems. However, concern was raised because the MAGS-7 and the SOGS-RA had little congruence in their three-group classification decisions for specific individuals (e.g., only 20.5% agreement for problem gamblers). To improve clinical utility, an empirical case was made for using the SOGS-RA to generate a fourth group of adolescent gamblers, which we labeled "probable pathological gamblers" (SOGS-RA > or = 6). This group was differentiated from the remaining gambling groups on all the validity indices. The implications and limitations of these findings, as well as future directions, are discussed.

  3. Estimation of health risks from radiation exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randolph, M.L.

    1983-08-01

    An informal presentation is given of the cancer and genetic risks from exposures to ionizing radiations. The risks from plausible radiation exposures are shown to be comparable to other commonly encountered risks.

  4. Estimation of health risks from radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Randolph, M.L.

    1983-08-01

    An informal presentation is given of the cancer and genetic risks from exposures to ionizing radiations. The risks from plausible radiation exposures are shown to be comparable to other commonly encountered risks

  5. Review of the current status of radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, M.W.; Little, M.P.

    1988-10-01

    This report reviews the current status of radiation risk estimation for low linear energy transfer radiation. Recent statements by various national and international organisations regarding risk estimates are critically discussed. The recently published revised population risk estimates from the study of Japanese bomb survivors are also reviewed and used with some unpublished data from Japan to calculate risk figures for a general work force. (author)

  6. An application of extreme value theory in estimating liquidity risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Benito Muela

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The last global financial crisis (2007–2008 has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR as a measure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into estimations of market risk by adding the VaR of the spread to the risk price. The parametric model is the standard approach used to estimate liquidity risk. As this approach does not generate reliable VaR estimates, we propose estimating liquidity risk using more sophisticated models based on extreme value theory (EVT. We find that the approach based on conditional extreme value theory outperforms the standard approach in terms of accurate VaR estimates and the market risk capital requirements of the Basel Capital Accord.

  7. Urinary schistosomiasis among schoolchildren in Yemen: prevalence, risk factors, and the effect of a chemotherapeutic intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Waleedi, Ali A; El-Nimr, Nessrin A; Hasab, Ali A; Bassiouny, Hassan K; Al-Shibani, Latifa A

    2013-12-01

    Schistosomiasis is one of the most important public health problems in Yemen. The prevalence of urinary schistosomiasis varies considerably across different parts of Yemen and was estimated to be 10% among schoolchildren in Sana'a. Praziquantel (PZQ) is highly effective against all five major human species of schistosomes. The aim of the present work was to estimate the prevalence of urinary schistosomiasis, describe the risk factors associated with its endemicity, and implement and assess a chemotherapeutic intervention using PZQ in a village in Yemen. The sample included 696 schoolchildren from a village in Abyan Governorate. During the baseline school survey, personal, sociodemographic, and environmental data, and data on practices in relation to water contact were collected from each study participant using a predesigned structured questionnaire. Urine samples from each participant were examined for macrohematuria and the presence of Schistosoma haematobium eggs. The chemotherapeutic intervention was assessed 3 and 6 months after the treatment and certain indicators were calculated. The prevalence of S. haematobium was 18.1%. The main significant risk factors were male sex; proximity of houses to water ponds; and using pond water for swimming, agricultural activities, and for bathing in houses. PZQ treatment reduced the prevalence of infection and decreased the prevalence of high-intensity infection. Survival analysis showed that the probability of residual infection also dropped after the treatment intervention. Male sex and using pond water for various activities were the main significant risk factors associated with urinary schistosomiasis. PZQ is still a cornerstone drug in reducing or eliminating morbidity associated with schistosomiasis infection. Health education programs tailored for the community are required for the control and prevention of urinary schistosomiasis. To address schoolchildren, school curricula should include lessons about urinary

  8. Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights

    OpenAIRE

    Pei Pei

    2010-01-01

    This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio VaR with estimation risk in an intrinsically multivariate framework. For the first time in the literature, it takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating the portfolio weights as well as that from estimating the multivariate dynamic model of asset returns make the existing methods in a univariate framew...

  9. Estimating disease prevalence from two-phase surveys with non-response at the second phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Sujuan; Hui, Siu L.; Hall, Kathleen S.; Hendrie, Hugh C.

    2010-01-01

    SUMMARY In this paper we compare several methods for estimating population disease prevalence from data collected by two-phase sampling when there is non-response at the second phase. The traditional weighting type estimator requires the missing completely at random assumption and may yield biased estimates if the assumption does not hold. We review two approaches and propose one new approach to adjust for non-response assuming that the non-response depends on a set of covariates collected at the first phase: an adjusted weighting type estimator using estimated response probability from a response model; a modelling type estimator using predicted disease probability from a disease model; and a regression type estimator combining the adjusted weighting type estimator and the modelling type estimator. These estimators are illustrated using data from an Alzheimer’s disease study in two populations. Simulation results are presented to investigate the performances of the proposed estimators under various situations. PMID:10931514

  10. Gastrointestinal parasites in Danish goats - prevalence and risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sörensen, C.; Holm, S. A.; Thamsborg, S. M.

    2012-01-01

    The aims were to examine prevalence of gastrointestinal parasites in Danish goats, based on faecal examination, in relation to geographical distribution and risk factors, and to investigate the occurrence of anthelmintic resistance in nematodes in selected farms. In April 2012 all Danish goat farms...... with ≥10 female goats (N=132) according to the Central Husbandry Register, were invited to participate. Of these, 25 herds each submitted faecal samples, collected approximately 1 month after turn out, from 4‐12 kids born earlier the same year. During May‐July, a total of 232 samples were examined using...

  11. Global and regional estimates of COPD prevalence: Systematic review and meta–analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davies Adeloye

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD across many world regions is high. We aim to estimate COPD prevalence and number of disease cases for the years 1990 and 2010 across world regions based on the best available evidence in publicly accessible scientific databases. We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health for original, population–based studies providing spirometry–based prevalence rates of COPD across the world from January 1990 to December 2014. Random effects meta–analysis was conducted on extracted crude prevalence rates of COPD, with overall summaries of the meta–estimates (and confidence intervals reported separately for World Health Organization (WHO regions, the World Bank's income categories and settings (urban and rural. We developed a meta–regression epidemiological model that we used to estimate the prevalence of COPD in people aged 30 years or more. Our search returned 37 472 publications. A total of 123 studies based on a spirometry–defined prevalence were retained for the review. From the meta–regression epidemiological model, we estimated about 227.3 million COPD cases in the year 1990 among people aged 30 years or more, corresponding to a global prevalence of 10.7% (95% confidence interval (CI 7.3%–14.0% in this age group. The number of COPD cases increased to 384 million in 2010, with a global prevalence of 11.7% (8.4%–15.0%. This increase of 68.9% was mainly driven by global demographic changes. Across WHO regions, the highest prevalence was estimated in the Americas (13.3% in 1990 and 15.2% in 2010, and the lowest in South East Asia (7.9% in 1990 and 9.7% in 2010. The percentage increase in COPD cases between 1990 and 2010 was the highest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (118.7%, followed by the African region (102.1%, while the European region recorded the lowest increase (22.5%. In 1990, we estimated about 120.9 million COPD cases among urban dwellers

  12. HIV Prevalence and Risk Behaviors in Male to Female (MTF) Transgender Persons in Tijuana, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salas-Espinoza, Kristian Jesús; Menchaca-Diaz, Rufino; Patterson, Thomas L; Urada, Lianne A; Smith, Davey; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Pitpitan, Eileen V

    2017-12-01

    Compared to HIV research on men who have sex with men, less is known about the risks and vulnerabilities for HIV among Male to Female (MTF) transgender persons, particularly in different geographic regions like Mexico. In Tijuana, Mexico, a border city experiencing a dynamic HIV epidemic, no precedent data exists on the MTF transgender population. Our aims were to estimate HIV prevalence and examine the behaviors and characteristics of the population. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 100 MTF transgender persons recruited through time location sampling in 2012. Participants underwent interviewer-administered (paper and pen) surveys and rapid tests for HIV. Descriptive univariate analyses were conducted on various factors, including sociodemographics, substance use, accessing social services (requested vs. received), stigma, and sex behaviors. A total of 22% tested positive for HIV, a prevalence higher than other key populations at risk for HIV in Tijuana.

  13. [Maternal depressive symptomatology in México: National prevalence, care, and population risk profiles].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Castro, Filipa; Place, Jean Marie; Villalobos, Aremis; Allen-Leigh, Betania

    2015-01-01

    This study estimates the prevalence of depressive symptomatology (DS) in women with children younger than five years of age, examines detection and care rates and probabilities of developing DS based on specific risk profiles. The sample consists of 7 187 women with children younger than five drawn from the Ensanut 2012. DS prevalence is 19.91%, which means at least 4.6 million children live with mothers who experience depressive symptoms indicative of moderate to severe depression. Rates of detection (17.06%) and care (15.19%) for depression are low. DS is associated with violence (OR=2.34; IC95% 1.06-5.15), having ≥4 children, having a female baby, older age of the last child, low birth weight, food insecurity, and sexual debut Mexico associated with a well-defined set of risk factors that warrant attention and timely detection at various levels of care.

  14. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  15. Diabetes prevalence and its risk factors in rural area of Tamil Nadu

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gupta Sanjay

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To estimate the usefulness of the Indian diabetes risk score for detecting undiagnosed diabetes in the rural area of Tamil Nadu. Materials and Methods: The present study was conducted in the field practice area of rural health centers (Chunampett and Annechikuppam, Tamil Nadu, covering a population of 35000 from February to March 2008 by using a predesigned and pretested protocol to find out the prevalence and the risk of diabetes mellitus in general population by using Indian diabetes risk score. Results: 1936 respondents comprising 1167 (60.27% females and 769 (39.73% males were studied. Majority 1203 (62.50% were Hindus. 1220 (63.% had studied up to higher secondary. 1200 (62% belonged to lower and lower-middle socio-economic class. A large number of the subjects 948 (50% were below 35 years of age. Most of the respondents 1411 (73% indulged in mild to moderate physical activity. 1715 (87.91% had no family history of diabetes mellitus. 750 (39.64% individuals were in the overweight category (>25 BMI. Out of these overweight persons, 64% had high diabetic risk score. It is observed that chances of high diabetic score increase with the increase in BMI. Prevalence of diabetes in studied population was 5.99%; out of these, 56% known cases of diabetes mellitus had high (>60 IDRS. Co-relation between BMI and IDRS shows that, if BMI increases from less than 18.50 to more than 30, chances of high risk for developing diabetes mellitus also significantly increase. Conclusion: This study estimates the usefulness of simplified Indian diabetes risk score for identifying undiagnosed high risk diabetic subjects in India. This simplified diabetes risk score has categorized the risk factors based on their severity. Use of the IDRS can make mass screening for undiagnosed diabetes in India more cost effective.

  16. Prevalence and Risk Factors for Toxoplasmosis in Middle Java, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retmanasari, Annisa; Widartono, Barandi Sapta; Wijayanti, Mahardika Agus; Artama, Wayan Tunas

    2017-03-01

    Toxoplasmosis is a zoonosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii. Risk factors include consumption of undercooked meat, raw vegetables, and unfiltered water. This study aims to determine the seroprevalence and spatial distribution of toxoplasmosis in Middle Java, Indonesia, using an EcoHealth approach, combined with geographic information system (GIS). A total of 630 participants were randomly selected from seven districts. Each participant completed a questionnaire and provided a blood sample. The seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis was 62.5%. Of those who were seropositive, 90.1% were IgG+, and 9.9% were IgG+ and IgM+. Several risk factors were identified, including living at elevations of ≤200 m, compared with >200 m (OR = 56.2; P Java has a high prevalence of toxoplasmosis and identified some important environmental, ecological, and demographic risk factors. When researching diseases, such as toxoplasmosis, where animal hosts, human lifestyle, and environmental factors are involved in transmission, an EcoHealth method is essential to ensure a fully collaborative approach to developing interventions to reduce the risk of transmission in high-risk populations.

  17. Caprine arthritis encephalitis virus: prevalence and risk factors in Lebanon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabet, E; Hosri, C; Abi-Rizk, A

    2015-12-01

    An epidemiological survey, accompanied by a serological analysis,was conducted on samples taken from Lebanese goat herds in order to determine the prevalence of infection with the caprine arthritis encephalitis virus (CAEV) in Lebanon. The results of the survey provided information on various livestock production, animal health and herd management factors. Serum samplesfrom 952 goats, including the local breeds (Baladi and Damascene) and imported breeds (Alpine and Saneen), were taken from 60 farms distributed throughout Lebanon and tested for the presence of anti-CAEV antibodies. The data obtained were analysed using a statistical model to assess CAEV infection risk factors in Lebanon. In total, 125 samples proved to be positive, representing a prevalence in selected individuals of 13.1% and in selected herds of 51.7%. The Bekaa region had the highest number of herds with seropositive goats (90% of herds); the level was lower in Mount Lebanon, the North and the South (54%, 34% and 33%, respectively). The prevalence in relation to the livestock production system was 70% in herds in intensive systems, 54% in semi-intensive systems and 45% in extensive systems. The indigenous breeds were more resistant and tolerant of CAEV than the imported breeds. This study confirms the presence of CAEV in Lebanese goat herds and identifies the different livestock production practices likely to favour the rapid spread of the virus.

  18. Prevalence and risk factors for adult pulmonary tuberculosis in a metropolitan city of South India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baskaran Dhanaraj

    Full Text Available The present study measured the community prevalence and risk factors of adult pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB in Chennai city, and also studied geographical distribution and the presence of different M. tuberculosis strains in the survey area.A community-based cross sectional survey was carried out from July 2010 to October 2012 in Chennai city. Prevalence of bacteriologically positive PTB was estimated by direct standardization method. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to identify significant risk factors. Drug susceptibility testing and spoligotyping was performed on isolated M. tuberculosis strains. Mapping of PTB cases was done using geographic positioning systems.Of 59,957 eligible people, 55,617 were screened by X-ray and /or TB symptoms and the prevalence of smear, culture, and bacteriologically positive PTB was estimated to be 228 (95% CI 189-265, 259 (95% CI 217-299 and 349 (95% CI 330-428 per 100,000 population, respectively. Prevalence of smear, culture, and bacteriologically positive PTB was highest amongst men aged 55-64 years. Multivariate analysis showed that occurrence of both culture and bacteriologically positive PTB disease was significantly associated with: age >35 years, past history of TB treatment, BMI <18.5 Kgs/m2, solid cooking fuel, and being a male currently consuming alcohol. The most frequent spoligotype family was East African Indian. Spatial distribution showed that a high proportion of patients were clustered in the densely populated north eastern part of the city.Our findings demonstrate that TB is a major public health problem in this urban area of south India, and support the use of intensified case finding in high risk groups. Undernutrition, slum dwelling, indoor air pollution and alcohol intake are modifiable risk factors for TB disease.

  19. Prevalence and risk factors of frailty among home care clients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miettinen, Minna; Tiihonen, Miia; Hartikainen, Sirpa; Nykänen, Irma

    2017-11-17

    Frailty is a common problem among older people and it is associated with an increased risk of death and long-term institutional care. Early identification of frailty is necessary to prevent a further decline in the health status of home care clients. The aims of the present study were to determine the prevalence of frailty and associated factors among 75-year-old or older home care clients. The study participants were 75-year-old or older home care clients living in three cities in Eastern and Central Finland. Home care clients who had completed the abbreviated Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (aCGA) for frailty (n = 257) were included in the present study. Baseline data were obtained on functional status, cognitive status, depressive symptoms, self-rated health, ability to walk 400 m, nutritional status, drug use and comorbidities. Most of the home care clients (90%) were screened for frailty using the aCGA. Multivariate analysis showed that the risk of malnutrition or malnutrition (OR = 4.27, 95% CI = 1.56, 11.68) and a low level of education (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.07, 1.23) were associated with frailty. Frailty is a prevalent problem among home care clients. The risk of malnutrition or malnourishment and a lower level of education increase the risk of frailty. Screening for frailty should be done to detect the most vulnerable older people for further intervention to prevent adverse health problems. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02214758 .

  20. Legionella prevalence and risk of legionellosis in Hungarian hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barna, Zsófia; Kádár, Mihály; Kálmán, Emese; Róka, Eszter; Szax, Anita Sch; Vargha, Márta

    2015-12-01

    Nosocomial legionellosis is a growing concern worldwide. In Hungary, about 20% of the reported cases are health-care associated, but in the absence of legal regulation, environmental monitoring of Legionella is not routinely performed in hospitals. In the present study, 23 hospitals were investigated. The hot water distribution system was colonized by Legionella in over 90%; counts generally exceeded the public health limit value. Hot water temperature was critically low in all systems (Legionella prevalence (OR = 28.0, 27.3, 27.7, respectively). Risk management interventions (including thermal or chemical disinfection) were only efficient if the system operation was optimized. Though the risk factors were similar, in those hospitals where nosocomial legionellosis was reported, Legionella counts and the proportion of L. pneumophila sg 1 isolates were significantly higher. The results of environmental prevalence of legionellae in hospitals suggest that the incidence of nosocomial legionellosis is likely to be underreported. The observed colonization rates call for the introduction of a mandatory environmental monitoring scheme.

  1. Prevalence of Urinary Incontinence During Pregnancy and Associated Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinç, Ayten

    2017-07-04

    To investigate the prevalence of urinary incontinence during pregnancy and associated risk factors. The study is a cross-sectional and descriptive study. A questionnaire was conducted with a total of 750 pregnant women about their urinary incontinence complaints between April and December 2013. The prevalence of urinary incontinence during pregnancy was 300 in 750 (40%). Stress urinary incontinence was the most common type of incontinence during pregnancy. 41.7% of nulliparous women, 38% of primipara women, and 20.3% of multipara women experienced urinary incontinence. Among women reporting UI, 29.3% experienced leakage a few times a day and the amount of leakage was generally (59.7%) moderate. Factors significantly associated with urinary incontinence included age group, gestational age, parity, previous urinary incontinence, constipation, mode of delivery at last childbirth, previous urinary tract infection, body mass index during pregnancy. But on multivariable analysis, the risk factors for urinary incontinence during pregnancy were previous urinary tract infection (OR = 3.8, 95%CI 1.5-9.3), constipation (OR 3.1, 95%CI 1.7-5.6) and gestational age (OR 0.5, 95%CI 0.3-0.9). As a result of this study, urinary incontinence is a common condition during pregnancy. Results would help the design of more intensive training programs to prevent incontinence during pregnancy by increasing the awareness about urinary incontinence of healthcare staff engaging in the care of pregnant women. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  2. The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

  3. Gingival recession: prevalence and risk indicators among young greek adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrysanthakopoulos, Nikolaos A

    2014-07-01

    The aim of the current research was to assess the prevalence of gingival recession and to investigate possible associations among this condition, periodontal and epidemiological variables in a sample of young Greek adults in a general dental practice. A total of 1,430 young adults was examined clinically and interviewed regarding several periodontal and epidemiological variables. Collected data included demographic variables, oral hygiene habits and smoking status. Clinical examination included the recording of dental plaque, supragingival calculus presence, gingival status and buccal gingival recession. Multivariate logistic regression analysis model was performed to access the possible association between gingival recession and several periodontal and epidemiological variables as potential risk factors. The overall prevalence of gingival recession was 63.9%. The statistical analysis indicated that higher educational level [OR= 2.12, 95% CI= 0.53-8.51], cigarette smoking [OR= 1.97, 95% CI= 1.48-7.91], frequent tooth brushing [OR= 0.98, 95% CI= 0.56-1.96], presence of oral piercing [OR= 0.92, 95% CI= 0.38-1.58], presence of gingival inflammation [OR= 4.54, 95% CI= 1.68-7.16], presence of dental plaque [OR= 1.67, 95% CI= 0.68-2.83] and presence of supragingival calculus [OR=1.34, 95% CI= 0.59-1.88], were the most important associated factors of gingival recession. The observations of the current research supported the results from previous authors that several periodontal factors, educational level and smoking were significantly associated with the presence of gingival recession, while presence of oral piercing was a new factor that was found to be associated with gingival recession. Key words:Gingival recession, prevalence, risk factors, young adults.

  4. CTX-M ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae: estimated prevalence in adults in England in 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNulty, Cliodna A M; Lecky, Donna M; Xu-McCrae, Li; Nakiboneka-Ssenabulya, Deborah; Chung, Keun-Taik; Nichols, Tom; Thomas, Helen Lucy; Thomas, Mike; Alvarez-Buylla, Adela; Turner, Kim; Shabir, Sahida; Manzoor, Susan; Smith, Stephen; Crocker, Linda; Hawkey, Peter M

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Background ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBLPE) are increasing in prevalence worldwide and are more difficult to treat than non-ESBLPE. Their prevalence in the UK general population is unknown, as the only previous UK ESBLPE faecal colonization study involved patients with diarrhoea. Objectives To estimate the prevalence of CTX-M ESBLPE faecal colonization in the general adult population of England in 2014, and investigate risk factors. Methods A stratified random sample of 58 337 registered patients from 16 general practices within four areas of England were invited to participate by returning faeces specimens and self-completed questionnaires. Specimens were tested for ESBLPE and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE). Results 2430 individuals participated (4% of those invited). The estimated prevalence of colonization with CTX-M ESBLPE in England was 7.3% (95% CI 5.6%–9.4%) (Shropshire 774 participants, 4.9% colonization; Southampton City 740 participants, 9.2%; Newham 612 participants, 12.7%; Heart of Birmingham 234 individuals, 16.0%) and was particularly high in: those born in Afghanistan (10 participants, 60.0% colonization, 95% CI 29.7%–84.2%); those born on the Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka) (259 participants, 25.0% colonization, 95% CI 18.5%–32.9%); travellers to South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka or Nepal) in the last year (140 participants, 38.5% colonization, 95% CI 27.8%–50.5%); and healthcare domestics (8 participants, unweighted 37.5% colonization, 95% CI 8.5%–75.5%). Risk factors identified included: being born in the Indian subcontinent (aOR 5.4, 95% CI 3.0–9.7); travel to South Asia (aOR 2.9, 95% CI 1.8–4.8) or to Africa, China, South or Central America, South East or Pacific Asia or Afghanistan (aOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.7–4.1) in the last year; and working as a healthcare domestic (aOR 6.2, 95% CI 1.3–31). None of the 48 participants who took co-amoxiclav in

  5. Urinary incontinence: hospital-based prevalence and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzieh Nojomi

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available

    • BACKGROUND: This study was carried out to determine the prevalence and risk factors of urinary incontinence in women aged 30 to 70 years, who were attending to a gynecologic hospital.
    • METHODS: During 2006, married women (aged 30-70 years attending to a teaching gynecological hospital were assessed during their visits for any gynecologic diseases. We used a questionnaire with interview for collecting data. The potential risk factors were measured; i.e., the demographics, menopausal status, urinary symptoms (frequency, nocturia and urgency, urinary incontinence, (urgency, stress and mixed, body mass index, medical history (type of delivery, parity, gravidity, chronic illnesses, medication use, pelvic surgery and seeking medical care for their problem.
    • RESULTS: The mean age was 46.5 (± 8.4 years. The mean parity was 5.1 ± 1.5. 27% of the participants reported urinary incontinence. Out of 111 women with urinary incontinence, 77 (18.7%, CI: 14.7-22.7%, 17 (4.1%, CI: 2.2-5.8% and 17 (4.1%, CI: 2.2-5.8% were classified as having stress, urge and mixed urinary incontinence, respectively. The overall prevalence of urinary incontinence was 18.9% (34 subjects in women aged 30-44 years, 30.9% (46 subjects in those aged 45-54 years and 37.8% (31 subjects in those aged 55 years and older. Out of 117 menopause women, 39 (33.3% were incontinent. On average, women reported 4.4 (± 1.06 diurnal and 0.55 (± 0.66 nocturnal voidings in 24 hours. Diurnal and nocturnal frequencies were different between continent and incontinent women. The high parity, excessive birth weight, pelvic trauma, constipation, chronic illnesses (specially diabetes and gynecologic and other pelvic surgeries were known as risk factors for urinary incontinence.
    • CONCLUSIONS: There was a significant association between urinary incontinence and high parity, excessive birth weight, pelvic

    • Prevalence and risk factors for scrub typhus in South India.

      Science.gov (United States)

      Trowbridge, Paul; P, Divya; Premkumar, Prasanna S; Varghese, George M

      2017-05-01

      To determine the prevalence and risk factors of scrub typhus in Tamil Nadu, South India. We performed a clustered seroprevalence study of the areas around Vellore. All participants completed a risk factor survey, with seropositive and seronegative participants acting as cases and controls, respectively, in a risk factor analysis. After univariate analysis, variables found to be significant underwent multivariate analysis. Of 721 people participating in this study, 31.8% tested seropositive. By univariate analysis, after accounting for clustering, having a house that was clustered with other houses, having a fewer rooms in a house, having fewer people living in a household, defecating outside, female sex, age >60 years, shorter height, lower weight, smaller body mass index and smaller mid-upper arm circumference were found to be significantly associated with seropositivity. After multivariate regression modelling, living in a house clustered with other houses, female sex and age >60 years were significantly associated with scrub typhus exposure. Overall, scrub typhus is much more common than previously thought. Previously described individual environmental and habitual risk factors seem to have less importance in South India, perhaps because of the overall scrub typhus-conducive nature of the environment in this region. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

    • Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

      Science.gov (United States)

      Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

      2011-01-01

      Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

    • Drug use and AIDS: estimating injection prevalence in a rural state.

      Science.gov (United States)

      Leukefeld, Carl G; Logan, T K; Farabee, David; Clayton, Richard

      2002-01-01

      This paper presents approaches used in one rural U.S. state to describe the level of injecting drug use and to estimate the number of injectors not receiving drug-user treatment. The focus is on two broad areas of estimation that were used to present the prevalence of injecting drug use in Kentucky. The first estimation approach uses available data from secondary data sources. The second approach involves three small community studies.

    • High prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in Asian Indians: A community survey - Chandigarh Urban Diabetes Study (CUDS

      Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

      Rama Walia

      2014-01-01

      Full Text Available Background & objectives: Studies conducted to assess the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV risk factors among different regions of the country show variation in risk factors in different age groups and urban and rural population. We undertook this study to determine the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among urban adults in a north Indian city. Methods: In a cross-sectional survey, 2227 subjects aged ≥ 20 yr were studied from April 2008 to June 2009 in Urban Chandigarh, a north Indian city. Demographic history, anthropometry and blood pressure were assessed. Fasting, and 2 h capillary plasma glucose after 75 g glucose load, HDL-C and triglycerides were estimated. Results: The most prevalent cardiovascular risk factors in the age group of 20-29 yr was sedentary lifestyle (63%, while from fourth decade and onwards, it was overweight/obesity (59-85%. The second most common prevalent cardiovascular risk factor in the age group of 20-29 yr was overweight/obesity, in 30-49 yr sedentary lifestyle, in 50-69 yr hypertension and in subjects ≥70 yr, it was hypertriglyceridaemia. The prevalence of overweight/obesity, hypertension, dysglycaemia and smoking was almost double in subjects in the fourth decade of life, as compared to those in the third decade of life. The prevalence of CV risk factors significantly increased with age irrespective of gender and prevalence of low HDL-C was significantly more common in women as compared to men. Interpretation & conclusions: Sedentary lifestyle, obesity and low HDL-C are the most prevalent CV risk factors in subjects in the third and fourth decade of life in this north Indian population and clustering of these cardiovascular risk factors increases with advancing age. Strategies need to be formulated to target this population to prevent the epidemic of cardiovascular disease.

    • Sero-prevalence, risk factors and distribution of sheep and goat pox in Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

      Science.gov (United States)

      Fentie, Tsegaw; Fenta, Nigusie; Leta, Samson; Molla, Wassie; Ayele, Birhanu; Teshome, Yechale; Nigatu, Seleshe; Assefa, Ashenafi

      2017-12-11

      Sheep pox and goat pox are contagious viral diseases of sheep and goats, respectively. The diseases result in substantial economic losses due to decreased milk and meat production, damage to hides and wool, and possible trade restriction. A study was undertaken in Amhara region of Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study design was used to estimate the sero-prevalence and identify associated risk factors, while retrospective study design was used to assess the temporal and spatial distribution of the disease. A total of 672 serum samples were collected from 30 Kebeles and tested using virus neutralization test. From a total of 672 sera tested, 104 (15.5%) were positive for sheep and goat pox virus antibody; from which 56 (17%) were sheep and 48 (14%) were goats. The diseases were prevalent in all study zones, the highest sero-prevalence was observed in South Gondar (20.9%) and the lowest in North Gondar and West Gojjam zones (11.9% each). From the potential risk factors considered (species, sex, age, agro-ecology and location); only sex and age were significantly associated (p pox is one of the most prevalent and widespread diseases of sheep and goats in the study area. Hence, annual mass vaccination program must be implemented for economic and viable control of sheep and goat pox diseases in the Amhara region in particular and at a national level in general.

    • Analyse of the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism in the patients with dyspnea

      International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

      Cao Yanxia; Su Jian; Wang Bingsheng; Wu Songhong; Dai Ruiting; Cao Caixia

      2005-01-01

      Objective: To analyse the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with dyspnea and to explore the predisposing causes and its early clinical manifestations. Methods: Retrospective analysis was done in 461 patients with dyspnea performed 99 Tc m -macroaggregated albumin (MAA) lung perfusion imaging and 99 Tc m -DTPA ventilation imaging or 99 Tc m -MAA perfusion imaging and chest X-ray examination. Among them, 48 cases without apparent disease were considered as control group, whereas the remaining patients with other underlying illnesses as patients group. PEMS statistics software package was used for estimation of prevalence rate, χ 2 test and PE risk factor analysis. Results: There were 251 PE patients among 461 patients, the prevalence rate [ (π)=95% confidence interval (CI) ] was: lower extremity thrombosis and varicosity (80.79-95.47 ), post cesarean section (55.64-87.12), lower extremity bone surgery or fracture (52.76-87.27 ), cancer operation (52.19-78.19), atrial fibrillation or heart failure (53.30-74.88), obesity (23.14-50.20), post abdominal surgery (20.23-59.43), diabetes (19.12-63.95), chronic bronchitis (1.80-23.06), normal control group (3.47-22.66). Except chronic bronchitis, PE prevalence rate between patients group and control group had significant difference (P 99 Tc m -MAA and DTPA lung imaging should be done as early as possible. (authors)

    • Global and Regional Estimates of Prevalent and Incident Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Infections in 2012.

      Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

      Katharine J Looker

      Full Text Available Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1 commonly causes orolabial ulcers, while HSV-2 commonly causes genital ulcers. However, HSV-1 is an increasing cause of genital infection. Previously, the World Health Organization estimated the global burden of HSV-2 for 2003 and for 2012. The global burden of HSV-1 has not been estimated.We fitted a constant-incidence model to pooled HSV-1 prevalence data from literature searches for 6 World Health Organization regions and used 2012 population data to derive global numbers of 0-49-year-olds with prevalent and incident HSV-1 infection. To estimate genital HSV-1, we applied values for the proportion of incident infections that are genital.We estimated that 3709 million people (range: 3440-3878 million aged 0-49 years had prevalent HSV-1 infection in 2012 (67%, with highest prevalence in Africa, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Assuming 50% of incident infections among 15-49-year-olds are genital, an estimated 140 million (range: 67-212 million people had prevalent genital HSV-1 infection, most of which occurred in the Americas, Europe and Western Pacific.The global burden of HSV-1 infection is huge. Genital HSV-1 burden can be substantial but varies widely by region. Future control efforts, including development of HSV vaccines, should consider the epidemiology of HSV-1 in addition to HSV-2, and especially the relative contribution of HSV-1 to genital infection.

    • The impact of fecal sample processing on prevalence estimates for antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli.

      Science.gov (United States)

      Omulo, Sylvia; Lofgren, Eric T; Mugoh, Maina; Alando, Moshe; Obiya, Joshua; Kipyegon, Korir; Kikwai, Gilbert; Gumbi, Wilson; Kariuki, Samuel; Call, Douglas R

      2017-05-01

      Investigators often rely on studies of Escherichia coli to characterize the burden of antibiotic resistance in a clinical or community setting. To determine if prevalence estimates for antibiotic resistance are sensitive to sample handling and interpretive criteria, we collected presumptive E. coli isolates (24 or 95 per stool sample) from a community in an urban informal settlement in Kenya. Isolates were tested for susceptibility to nine antibiotics using agar breakpoint assays and results were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We observed a 0.1). Prevalence estimates did not differ for five distinct E. coli colony morphologies on MacConkey agar plates (P>0.2). Successive re-plating of samples for up to five consecutive days had little to no impact on prevalence estimates. Finally, culturing E. coli under different conditions (with 5% CO 2 or micro-aerobic) did not affect estimates of prevalence. For the conditions tested in these experiments, minor modifications in sample processing protocols are unlikely to bias estimates of the prevalence of antibiotic-resistance for fecal E. coli. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    • Prevalence and risk factors of mucous retention cysts in a Brazilian population.

      Science.gov (United States)

      Rodrigues, C D; Freire, G F; Silva, L B; Fonseca da Silveira, M M; Estrela, C

      2009-10-01

      The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and analyse the risk factors of mucous retention cysts (MRCs) of the maxillary sinus. From November 2002 to May 2007, 6293 panoramic radiographs were taken and retrospectively reviewed to estimate the prevalence of MRCs and to analyse risk factors (month, relative air humidity and mean temperature). The months in which MRCs occurred were recorded and analysed. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was used to correlate MRCs with relative air humidity, environmental temperature and month (significance level R(2)>0.85). Of the 6293 radiographs analysed, 201 (3.19%) images were suggestive of MRCs. No significant correlation was found between MRCs and relative humidity (R(2) = 0.15) of the air or temperature (R(2) = 0.40). The months with the highest numbers of MRC cases were September, October and November. The prevalence of MRCs was low, and no statistical correlation was found between MRCs and relative humidity of the air, mean temperature or month.

    • Bayesian Estimation of Fish Disease Prevalence from Pooled Samples Incorporating Sensitivity and Specificity

      Science.gov (United States)

      Williams, Christopher J.; Moffitt, Christine M.

      2003-03-01

      An important emerging issue in fisheries biology is the health of free-ranging populations of fish, particularly with respect to the prevalence of certain pathogens. For many years, pathologists focused on captive populations and interest was in the presence or absence of certain pathogens, so it was economically attractive to test pooled samples of fish. Recently, investigators have begun to study individual fish prevalence from pooled samples. Estimation of disease prevalence from pooled samples is straightforward when assay sensitivity and specificity are perfect, but this assumption is unrealistic. Here we illustrate the use of a Bayesian approach for estimating disease prevalence from pooled samples when sensitivity and specificity are not perfect. We also focus on diagnostic plots to monitor the convergence of the Gibbs-sampling-based Bayesian analysis. The methods are illustrated with a sample data set.

    • Prevalence of and risk factors associated with ovine progressive pneumonia in Wyoming sheep flocks.

      Science.gov (United States)

      Gerstner, Shelley; Adamovicz, Jeffrey J; Duncan, John V; Laegreid, William W; Marshall, Katherine L; Logan, James R; Schumaker, Brant A

      2015-10-15

      To determine the prevalence of antibodies against small ruminant lentivirus (SRLV), the causative agent of ovine progressive pneumonia (OPP), and to identify risk factors associated with OPP in Wyoming sheep flocks. Cross-sectional study. 1,415 sheep from 54 flocks in Wyoming. Flocks were surveyed as part of the National Animal Health Monitoring System (NAHMS) 2011 sheep study. Serum samples obtained from sheep in Wyoming were analyzed for anti-SRLV antibodies by use of a competitive-inhibition ELISA. The prevalence of seropositive animals overall and within each flock was calculated. Respective associations between flock OPP status and various demographic and management variables were assessed. The estimated prevalence of sheep seropositive for anti-SRLV antibodies and OPP-infected flocks in Wyoming was 18.0% and 47.5%, respectively. Within OPP-infected flocks, the prevalence of seropositive sheep ranged from 3.9% to 96%. Flocks maintained on nonfenced range were more likely to be infected with OPP than were flocks maintained on fenced range (OR, 3.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 10.7). The estimated prevalence of OPP-infected flocks in Wyoming did not vary substantially from that at the regional or national level reported in the NAHMS 2001 sheep study. Compared with results of the NAHMS 2011 sheep study, Wyoming producers were more familiar with OPP than were other US sheep producers, but only 61% of Wyoming producers surveyed reported being very or somewhat familiar with the disease. Results indicated that OPP is prevalent in many Wyoming sheep flocks, which suggested that continued efforts are necessary to increase producer knowledge about the disease and investigate practices to minimize economic losses associated with OPP.

    • Global prevalence of diabetes: estimates for 2000 and projections for 2030

      DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

      Wild, Sarah; Roglic, Gojka; Green, Anders

      2004-01-01

      . The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people 65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS — These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence......OBJECTIVE — The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS — Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World...... of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence....

    • Dystocia in dromedary camels: Prevalence, forms, risks and hematobiochemical changes.

      Science.gov (United States)

      Ali, Ahmed; Derar, Derar; Tharwat, Mohamed; Zeitoun, Moustafa M; Alsobyil, Fahd A

      2016-07-01

      The objectives of this study were to investigate the prevalence of dystocia in camel herds, its forms in primi- and multipara, the risks to fetus and dam, and the associated hematobiochemical changes. A total of 1890 calvings were surveyed for the prevalence of dystocia. Cases with dystocia (n=107) were examined for causes and treated with traction, fetotomy or Cesarean section. Logistic regression was performed to identify risk factors. The dependent variables were the fetal and maternal mortality, while the independent variables were parity, duration of dystocia, causes of dystocia, and method of treatment. Blood samples were collected from all dystocia camels and six controls for hematology and concentrations of serum amyloid A (SAA), haptoglobin (Hp), estradiol-17β (E2), progesterone (P4), total protein, albumin, calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine and aspartate aminotransferase (AST). The overall prevalence of dystocia was 8.6%. Risk of dystocia was higher in camels managed in an intensive system than in those in a free system (Odds ratio=1.9, P=0.0003) and higher in primipara than in multipara (Odds ratio 1.7, P=0.005). Abnormal posture was the most important cause of dystocia (51.4%). Uterine torsion was the second most important cause (23.4%) and was mainly observed in multipara (P=0.0006). Dystocia was linked to high fetal mortality (87.9%). A significant relationship was found between fetal death and duration of dystocia (Odds ratio=8.04, P=0.005). The percentage of dam mortality was 17.8%. Significant associations were detected between dam mortality rate and the duration of dystocia (Odds ratio=4.74, P=0.03) and fetal viability (Odds ratio=5.82, P=0.02). Increasing duration of dystocia was associated with significant increases in SAA, Hp, BUN and AST, but with decreases in E2 (Pdystocia in dromedary camels, and fetal and maternal deaths were mainly associated with the duration of dystocia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B

    • Panel data nonparametric estimation of production risk and risk preferences

      DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

      Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

      approaches for obtaining firm-specific measures of risk attitudes. We found that Polish dairy farmers are risk averse regarding production risk and price uncertainty. According to our results, Polish dairy farmers perceive the production risk as being more significant than the risk related to output price......We apply nonparametric panel data kernel regression to investigate production risk, out-put price uncertainty, and risk attitudes of Polish dairy farms based on a firm-level unbalanced panel data set that covers the period 2004–2010. We compare different model specifications and different...

    • Social anxiety disorder in Saudi adolescent boys: Prevalence, subtypes, and parenting style as a risk factor.

      Science.gov (United States)

      Ghazwani, Jaafar Y; Khalil, Shamsun N; Ahmed, Razia A

      2016-01-01

      Available information on social anxiety disorder (SAD) in adolescents in Saudi Arabia is limited. The objective of the study was to estimate the prevalence, severity, and subtypes of SAD, and parenting style risk factors associated with SAD in the adolescent. This cross-sectional study was conducted in two secondary schools for boys in Abha, Saudi Arabia during the Academic year 2013. To collect the data, a questionnaire eliciting information on background characteristics and parenting style as well as the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale Test (LSAS), for the evaluation of SAD, were used. A total of 454 students participated in the study. The age of the participants ranged between 15 and 20 years with a mean of 17.4 years. The prevalence of SAD was 11.7%. Around 36% and 11.4% of the students respectively had severe and more severe forms of SAD. Parenting style such as parental anger, criticism particularly in front of others, exaggerated protection, maltreatment and family provocation emerged as a significant risk factor for SAD. The independent predictors of SAD were a parental provocation and physical or emotional maltreatment by the parent (odds ratio [OR] = 3.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.90-8.31 and OR = 2.67, 95% CI: 3.17-5.19, respectively). The prevalence of SAD in secondary school students at Abha is high. Parenting style risk factors for SAD are modifiable. In this context, a national program to improve mental health in this age group is crucial.

  1. Hepatitis C prevalence in Denmark -an estimate based on multiple national registers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Peer Brehm; Hay, Gordon; Jepsen, Peter

    2012-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: A national survey for chronic hepatitis C has not been performed in Denmark and the prevalence is unknown. Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C from public registers and the proportion of these patients who received specialized healthcare. METHODS...... by capture-recapture analysis. The population with undiagnosed hepatitis C was derived from the national register of drug users by comparing diagnosed and tested persons. RESULTS: A total of 6,935 patients diagnosed with chronic hepatitis C were identified in the four registers and the estimated population.......37-0.42) of the population over 15 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated prevalence of chronic hepatitis C in Denmark was 0.38%. Less than half of the patients with chronic hepatitis C in Denmark have been identified and among these patients, one in three has attended specialised care....

  2. Prevalence of stroke/cardiovascular risk factors in Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodo, M.; Sipos, K.; Thuroczy, G.; Panczel, G.; Ilias, L.; Szonyi, P.; Bodo, M., Jr.; Nebella, T.; Banyasz, A.; Nagy, Z.

    2010-04-01

    A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Hungary using the Cerberus system which includes: 1) a questionnaire addressing the risk factors for stroke/cardiovascular disease; 2) amplifiers to record the pulse waves of cerebral arteries (rheoencephalography) and peripheral arteries, electrocardiogram and electroencephalogram. Additionally, subjects were measured for carotid stenosis by Doppler ultrasound and 12-lead electrocardiogram; subjects were also screened for blood cholesterol, glucose, and triglyceride levels. Prevalence of the following stroke risk factors was identified: overweight, 63.25%; sclerotic brain arteries (by rheoencephalogram), 54.29%; heart disease, 37.92%; pathologic carotid flow, 34.24%; smoking, 30.55%; high blood cholesterol, 28.70%; hypertension, 27.83%; high triglyceride, 24.35%; abnormality in electrocardiogram, 20%; high glucose, 15.95%; symptoms of transient ischemic attack, 16.07%; alcohol abuse, 6.74%; and diabetes, 4.53%. The study demonstrates a possible model for primary cardiovascular disease/stroke prevention. This method offers a standardizable, cost effective, practical technique for mass screenings by identifying the population at high risk for cardiovascular disturbances, especially cerebrovascular disease (primary prevention). In this model, the rheoencephalogram can detect cerebrovascular arteriosclerosis in the susceptibility/presymptomatic phase, earlier than the Doppler ultrasound technique. The method also provides a model for storing analog physiological signals in a computer-based medical record and is a first step in applying an expert system to stroke prevention.

  3. METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF PRACTICAL RADIOGENIC RISK ESTIMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Т. Gubin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical ratios were established according to the description of the calculation procedure for the values of the nominal risk coefficient given in the ICRP Recommendations 2007. It is shown that the lifetime radiogenic risk is a linear functional from the distribution of the dose in time with a multiplier descending with age. As a consequence, application of the nominal risk coefficient in the risk calculations is justified in the case when prolonged exposure is practically evenly distributed in time, and gives a significant deviation at a single exposure. When using the additive model of radiogenic risk proposed in the UNSCEAR Report 2006 for solid cancers, this factor is almost linearly decreasing with the age, which is convenient for its practical application.

  4. Can administrative health utilisation data provide an accurate diabetes prevalence estimate for a geographical region?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Wing Cheuk; Papaconstantinou, Dean; Lee, Mildred; Telfer, Kendra; Jo, Emmanuel; Drury, Paul L; Tobias, Martin

    2018-05-01

    To validate the New Zealand Ministry of Health (MoH) Virtual Diabetes Register (VDR) using longitudinal laboratory results and to develop an improved algorithm for estimating diabetes prevalence at a population level. The assigned diabetes status of individuals based on the 2014 version of the MoH VDR is compared to the diabetes status based on the laboratory results stored in the Auckland regional laboratory result repository (TestSafe) using the New Zealand diabetes diagnostic criteria. The existing VDR algorithm is refined by reviewing the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the each of the VDR algorithm rules individually and as a combination. The diabetes prevalence estimate based on the original 2014 MoH VDR was 17% higher (n = 108,505) than the corresponding TestSafe prevalence estimate (n = 92,707). Compared to the diabetes prevalence based on TestSafe, the original VDR has a sensitivity of 89%, specificity of 96%, positive predictive value of 76% and negative predictive value of 98%. The modified VDR algorithm has improved the positive predictive value by 6.1% and the specificity by 1.4% with modest reductions in sensitivity of 2.2% and negative predictive value of 0.3%. At an aggregated level the overall diabetes prevalence estimated by the modified VDR is 5.7% higher than the corresponding estimate based on TestSafe. The Ministry of Health Virtual Diabetes Register algorithm has been refined to provide a more accurate diabetes prevalence estimate at a population level. The comparison highlights the potential value of a national population long term condition register constructed from both laboratory results and administrative data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. High blood pressure in school children: prevalence and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rivers Patrick A

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of high blood pressure (HBP and associated risk factors in school children 8 to 13 years of age. Methods Elementary school children (n = 1,066 were examined. Associations between HBP, body mass index (BMI, gender, ethnicity, and acanthosis nigricans (AN were investigated using a school based cross-sectional study. Blood pressure was measured and the 95th percentile was used to determine HBP. Comparisons between children with and without HBP were utilized. The crude and multiple logistic regression adjusted odds ratios were used as measures of association. Results Females, Hispanics, overweight children, and children with AN had an increased likelihood of HBP. Overweight children (BMI ≥ 85th percentile and those with AN were at least twice as likely to present with HBP after controlling for confounding factors. Conclusion Twenty one percent of school children had HBP, especially the prevalence was higher among the overweight and Hispanic group. The association identified here can be used as independent markers for increased likelihood of HBP in children.

  6. Prevalence and risk factors for tuberculosis infection among hospital workers in Hanoi, Viet Nam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, Luu Thi; Hang, Nguyen Thi Le; Kobayashi, Nobuyuki; Yanai, Hideki; Toyota, Emiko; Sakurada, Shinsaku; Thuong, Pham Huu; Cuong, Vu Cao; Nanri, Akiko; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Matsushita, Ikumi; Harada, Nobuyuki; Higuchi, Kazue; Tuan, Le Anh; Keicho, Naoto

    2009-08-27

    Transmission of tuberculosis (TB) to health care workers (HCWs) is a global issue. Although effective infection control measures are expected to reduce nosocomial TB, HCWs' infection has not been assessed enough in TB high burden countries. We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine the prevalence of TB infection and its risk factors among HCWs in Hanoi, Viet Nam. A total of 300 HCWs including all staff members in a municipal TB referral hospital received an interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA), QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube(TM), followed by one- and two-step tuberculin skin test (TST) and a questionnaire-based interview. Agreement between the tests was evaluated by kappa statistics. Risk factors for TB infection were analyzed using a logistic regression model. Among the participants aged from 20 to 58 years (median = 40), prevalence of TB infection estimated by IGRA, one- and two-step TST was 47.3%, 61.1% and 66.3% respectively. Although the levels of overall agreement between IGRA and TST were moderate, the degree of agreement was low in the group with BCG history (kappa = 0.29). Working in TB hospital was associated with twofold increase in odds of TB infection estimated by IGRA. Increased age, low educational level and the high body mass index also demonstrated high odds ratios of IGRA positivity. Prevalence of TB infection estimated by either IGRA or TST is high among HCWs in the hospital environment for TB care in Viet Nam and an infection control program should be reinforced. In communities with heterogeneous history of BCG vaccination, IGRA seems to estimate TB infection more accurately than any other criteria using TST.

  7. Prevalence and risk factors for tuberculosis infection among hospital workers in Hanoi, Viet Nam.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luu Thi Lien

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Transmission of tuberculosis (TB to health care workers (HCWs is a global issue. Although effective infection control measures are expected to reduce nosocomial TB, HCWs' infection has not been assessed enough in TB high burden countries. We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine the prevalence of TB infection and its risk factors among HCWs in Hanoi, Viet Nam. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 300 HCWs including all staff members in a municipal TB referral hospital received an interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA, QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube(TM, followed by one- and two-step tuberculin skin test (TST and a questionnaire-based interview. Agreement between the tests was evaluated by kappa statistics. Risk factors for TB infection were analyzed using a logistic regression model. Among the participants aged from 20 to 58 years (median = 40, prevalence of TB infection estimated by IGRA, one- and two-step TST was 47.3%, 61.1% and 66.3% respectively. Although the levels of overall agreement between IGRA and TST were moderate, the degree of agreement was low in the group with BCG history (kappa = 0.29. Working in TB hospital was associated with twofold increase in odds of TB infection estimated by IGRA. Increased age, low educational level and the high body mass index also demonstrated high odds ratios of IGRA positivity. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Prevalence of TB infection estimated by either IGRA or TST is high among HCWs in the hospital environment for TB care in Viet Nam and an infection control program should be reinforced. In communities with heterogeneous history of BCG vaccination, IGRA seems to estimate TB infection more accurately than any other criteria using TST.

  8. The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John

    2017-01-01

    Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco’s national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Methods Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. Results In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612–37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0–3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000–2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Conclusions Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal

  9. The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John; Korenromp, Eline L

    2017-01-01

    Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco's national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612-37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0-3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000-2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re

  10. High Prevalence of Diabetes and Prediabetes and Their Coexistence with Cardiovascular Risk Factors in a Hispanic Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto-Salgado, Marievelisse; Suárez, Erick; Guzmán, Manuel; Ortiz, Ana Patricia

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the prevalence and association of diabetes mellitus (DM) and prediabetes with cardiovascular risk factors among Puerto Ricans adults. Data from a household survey of 857 adults aged 21–79 years who underwent interviews, physical exams, and blood draws were analyzed. Prevalence of total DM and prediabetes was estimated using American Diabetes Association diagnostic criteria of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Poisson regression models were used to estimate the prevalence ratio for each cardiovascular risk factor under study. Age-standardized prevalence of total DM and prediabetes, detected by FPG and/or HbA1c, was 25.5 and 47.4 %, respectively. Compared with participants with normoglycemia, those with previously diagnosed DM, undiagnosed DM, and prediabetes had more adverse cardiovascular risk factor profiles, characterized by a higher prevalence of general and abdominal obesity, hypertension, low HDL cholesterol, elevated LDL cholesterol, elevated triglycerides, and elevated plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (p < 0.05). The high prevalence of DM and prediabetes calls for public health actions to plan and implement lifestyle interventions to prevent or delay the onset of DM and cardiovascular disease. PMID:24781780

  11. Estimating Contraceptive Prevalence Using Logistics Data for Short-Acting Methods: Analysis Across 30 Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Marc; Bock, Ariella; Brown, Niquelle; Sacher, Suzy; Hatch, Benjamin; Inglis, Andrew; Aronovich, Dana

    2015-09-01

    Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is a vital indicator used by country governments, international donors, and other stakeholders for measuring progress in family planning programs against country targets and global initiatives as well as for estimating health outcomes. Because of the need for more frequent CPR estimates than population-based surveys currently provide, alternative approaches for estimating CPRs are being explored, including using contraceptive logistics data. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 30 countries, population data from the United States Census Bureau International Database, and logistics data from the Procurement Planning and Monitoring Report (PPMR) and the Pipeline Monitoring and Procurement Planning System (PipeLine), we developed and evaluated 3 models to generate country-level, public-sector contraceptive prevalence estimates for injectable contraceptives, oral contraceptives, and male condoms. Models included: direct estimation through existing couple-years of protection (CYP) conversion factors, bivariate linear regression, and multivariate linear regression. Model evaluation consisted of comparing the referent DHS prevalence rates for each short-acting method with the model-generated prevalence rate using multiple metrics, including mean absolute error and proportion of countries where the modeled prevalence rate for each method was within 1, 2, or 5 percentage points of the DHS referent value. For the methods studied, family planning use estimates from public-sector logistics data were correlated with those from the DHS, validating the quality and accuracy of current public-sector logistics data. Logistics data for oral and injectable contraceptives were significantly associated (Plogistics data are strongly correlated with public-sector prevalence rates for short-acting methods, demonstrating the quality of current logistics data and their ability to provide relatively accurate prevalence estimates. The

  12. Subclinical ketosis in dairy cows: prevalence and risk factors in grazing production system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garro, C J; Mian, L; Cobos Roldán, M

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of Subclinical ketosis (SCK) between 4 and 19 days in milk (DIM) in a grazing production system and investigate the importance of potential risk factors for SCK. This cross-sectional study was conducted in dairy cows (n = 107), which had more of two parities. The concentration of β-hydroxybutyric (BHB) in blood was quantified through a hand-held meter. Potential risk factors evaluated were calving interval (CI), milk yield in previous lactation, metritis, dystocia, calf sex (male), parity (≤3 vs. ≥4) and pre-partum body condition score (BCS ≤ 3.5 vs. ≥3.75). Prevalence of SCK was 10.3% (95% CI 4.7-15) between 4 and 19 DIM. Risk factors identified were the occurrence of both metritis and pre-partum BCS ≥ 3.75. Cows with metritis had 4.9 (95% CI 1.17-20.98) times more risk of developing SCK than cows without metritis. And the cows with pre-partum BCS ≥ 3.75 had 5.25 (95% CI 1.32-21.11) times more risk of developing SCK than cows with pre-partum BCS ≤ 3.5. Metritis could induce a lower feed intake and promote the development of SCK. High pre-partum BCS could induce a greater mobilization of body reserves altering liver function and aggravating post-partum NEB. The results are indicative of the expected prevalence of SCK in grazing production system. Factors associated could help to identify cattle at risk of SCK and improve the management of strategies to limit the effects. Journal of Animal Physiology and Animal Nutrition © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  13. Primary headache disorders in the Republic of Georgia: prevalence and risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katsarava, Z; Dzagnidze, A; Kukava, M

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To estimate the 1-year prevalences of migraine and tension-type headache (TTH), and identify their principal risk factors, in the general population of the Republic of Georgia. METHODS: In a community-based door-to-door survey, 4 medical residents interviewed all biologically unrelated......, a remarkably high percentage of the population of Georgia have headache on >/=15 days/month. This study demonstrates the importance of socioeconomic factors in a developing country and unmasks the unmet needs of people with headache disorders....

  14. Prevalence of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors among tea garden and general population in Dibrugarh, Assam, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulika G. Mahanta

    2013-09-01

    Conclusion: High prevalence of modifiable risk factors like tobacco consumption, high salt intake and high prevalence of hypertension indicates the need for early implementation of preventive actions in this population.

  15. Amaurosis fugax: risk factors and prevalence of significant carotid stenosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kvickström P

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Pia Kvickström,1 Bertil Lindblom,2,3 Göran Bergström,4,5 Madeleine Zetterberg2,3 1Department of Ophthalmology, Skaraborg Hospital, Skövde, 2Department of Clinical Neuroscience/Ophthalmology, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, The Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, 3Department of Ophthalmology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Mölndal, 4Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, The Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, 5Department of Clinical Physiology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden Purpose: The purpose of this study was to describe clinical characteristics and prevalence of carotid stenosis in patients with amaurosis fugax (AF.Method: Patients diagnosed with AF and subjected to carotid ultrasound in 2004–2010 in Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg (n=302, were included, and data were retrospectively collected from medical records.Results: The prevalence of significant carotid stenosis was 18.9%, and 14.2% of the subjects were subjected to carotid endarterectomy. Significant associations with risk of having ≥70% stenosis were male sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.62; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.26–5.46, current smoking (aOR: 6.26; 95% CI: 2.62–14.93, diabetes (aOR: 3.68; 95% CI: 1.37–9.90 and previous vasculitis (aOR: 10.78; 95% CI: 1.36–85.5. A majority of the patients (81.4% was seen by an ophthalmologist prior to the first ultrasound. Only 1.7% of the patients exhibited retinal artery emboli at examination.Conclusion: The prevalence of carotid stenosis among patients with AF is higher than has previously been demonstrated in stroke patients. An association with previously reported vascular risk factors and with vasculitis is seen in this patient group. Ocular findings are scarce. Keywords: amaurosis fugax, carotid stenosis, carotid ultrasound, giant cell arteritis, transient ischemic attack, transient monocular visual loss

  16. Global prevalence of, and risk factors for, gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eusebi, Leonardo H; Ratnakumaran, Raguprakash; Yuan, Yuhong; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Bazzoli, Franco; Ford, Alexander C

    2018-03-01

    Gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms are common in the community, but there has been no definitive systematic review and meta-analysis of data from all studies to estimate their global prevalence, or potential risk factors for them. Medline, Embase and Embase Classic were searched (until September 2016) to identify population-based studies that reported the prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms in adults (≥15 years); gastro-oesophageal reflux was defined using symptom-based criteria or questionnaires. The prevalence was extracted for all studies, and according to the criteria used to define it. Pooled prevalence, according to study location and certain other characteristics, OR and 95% CIs were calculated. Of the 14 132 citations evaluated, 102 reported the prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms in 108 separate study populations, containing 460 984 subjects. Prevalence varied according to country (from 2.5% in China to 51.2% in Greece) and criteria used to define gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms. When only studies using a weekly frequency of heart burn or regurgitation to define presence were considered, pooled prevalence was 13.3% (95% CI 12.0% to 14.6%). Prevalence was higher in subjects ≥50 years (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.54), smokers (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.52), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID)/aspirin users (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.88) and obese individuals (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.46 to 2.06). The prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms varied strikingly among countries, even when similar definitions were used to define their presence. Prevalence was significantly higher in subjects ≥50 years, smokers, NSAID users and obese individuals, although these associations were modest. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  17. Prevalence of hearing impairment in a rural midwestern cohort: estimates from the Keokuk county rural health study, 1994 to 1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flamme, Gregory A; Mudipalli, V Ranjit; Reynolds, Stephen J; Kelly, Kevin M; Stromquist, Ann M; Zwerling, Craig; Burmeister, Leon F; Peng, Shu-Chen; Merchant, James A

    2005-06-01

    The current paper estimates the prevalence of hearing problems in a rural population, analyzes the prevalence of hearing problems across age groups, and compares the prevalence of hearing problems in this population with results obtained in other populations. Data were obtained from a random sample of the residents of a rural county, stratified by farm, rural non-farm, and town residence. Hearing test results were obtained from participants between the ages of 8 and 92 years (N = 1972; 47% male). Pure-tone thresholds were classified as normal or impaired using a number of metrics, including speech intelligibility index values. Selected comparisons of crude rates were made with previous population-based studies of hearing loss prevalence. Nearly all (99%) of the participants in this study had significant hearing impairment. Atypical hearing impairment is most prevalent at 6 kHz. In males, this excess impairment shifts to lower frequencies with age but monotonically decreases in females. Notched configurations were most common among those between 30 and 59 years old. In females, the prevalence of hearing impairments sufficient to interfere with speech understanding begins to rapidly increase in the 6th decade (4th decade in males). Comparisons with prior population-based studies in the United States and Great Britain identified few significant differences. Significant hearing impairment is common in rural populations. The high prevalence in this population is similar to that found in other population-based studies. Future studies are needed to examine (1) the risk factors for hearing impairment, (2) the natural course of hearing problems across the life span, and (3) the effect of programs for the prevention of hearing impairment and rehabilitation for persons with existing hearing impairments.

  18. Radiation risk and its estimation for nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krueger, F.W.

    1979-01-01

    The level of knowledge achieved in estimating risks due to the operation of nuclear facilities is discussed. In this connection it is analyzed to what extent risk estimates may be used for establishing requirements for facilities and measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. At present, estimates of risks are subject to great uncertainties. However, the results attainable already permit to discern the causes of possible accidents and to develop effective measures for preventing such accidents. For the time being (and maybe in principle) risk estimation is possible only with more or less arbitrary premises. Within the foreseeable future, cost-benefit comparisons cannot compensate for discretionary decisions in establishing requirements for measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. In preparing such decisions based on experience, expert opinions, political and socio-economic reflections and views, comparison of the risk of novel technologies with existing ones or accepted risks may be a useful means. (author)

  19. Prevalence and risk factors associated with nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musaiger, Abdulrahman O; Al-Hazzaa, Hazzaa M

    2012-01-01

    This paper reviews the current situation concerning nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases (N-NCDs) and the risk factors associated with these diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR). A systematic literature review of studies and reports published between January 1, 1990 and September 15, 2011 was conducted using the PubMed and Google Scholar databases. Cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, obesity, cancer, and osteoporosis have become the main causes of morbidity and mortality, especially with progressive aging of the population. The estimated mortality rate due to cardiovascular disease and diabetes ranged from 179.8 to 765.2 per 100,000 population, with the highest rates in poor countries. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was very high, ranging from 19% to 45%. The prevalence of overweight and obesity (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2) has reached an alarming level in most countries of the region, ranging from 25% to 82%, with a higher prevalence among women. The estimated mortality rate for cancer ranged from 61.9 to 151 per 100,000 population. Osteoporosis has become a critical problem, particularly among women. Several risk factors may be contributing to the high prevalence of N-NCDs in EMR, including nutrition transition, low intake of fruit and vegetables, demographic transition, urbanization, physical inactivity, hypertension, tobacco smoking, stunting of growth of preschool children, and lack of nutrition and health awareness. Intervention programs to prevent and control N-NCDs are urgently needed, with special focus on promotion of healthy eating and physical activity. PMID:22399864

  20. Prevalence and risk factors associated with nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Musaiger AO

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abdulrahman O Musaiger1, Hazzaa M Al-Hazzaa21Nutrition and Health Studies Unit, Deanship of Scientific Research, University of Bahrain, Bahrain, and Arab Center for Nutrition, Bahrain; 2Exercise Physiology Laboratory, Department of Physical Education and Movement Science, College of Education, and Scientific Board, Obesity Research Chair, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaAbstract: This paper reviews the current situation concerning nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases (N-NCDs and the risk factors associated with these diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR. A systematic literature review of studies and reports published between January 1, 1990 and September 15, 2011 was conducted using the PubMed and Google Scholar databases. Cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, obesity, cancer, and osteoporosis have become the main causes of morbidity and mortality, especially with progressive aging of the population. The estimated mortality rate due to cardiovascular disease and diabetes ranged from 179.8 to 765.2 per 100,000 population, with the highest rates in poor countries. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was very high, ranging from 19% to 45%. The prevalence of overweight and obesity (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 has reached an alarming level in most countries of the region, ranging from 25% to 82%, with a higher prevalence among women. The estimated mortality rate for cancer ranged from 61.9 to 151 per 100,000 population. Osteoporosis has become a critical problem, particularly among women. Several risk factors may be contributing to the high prevalence of N-NCDs in EMR, including nutrition transition, low intake of fruit and vegetables, demographic transition, urbanization, physical inactivity, hypertension, tobacco smoking, stunting of growth of preschool children, and lack of nutrition and health awareness. Intervention programs to prevent and control N-NCDs are urgently needed, with special focus

  1. Political risk in fair market value estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruy, H.J.; Hartsock, J.H.

    1996-01-01

    Political risk arises from unstable governments, commercial establishments and infrastructure as well as labor unrest. All these factors vary from country to country and from time to time. Banks and insurance companies quantify these risks, but they are reluctant to divulge their opinions for fear of alienating possible customers that have been assigned a high risk. An investment in a fixed property such as an oil and gas lease, concession or other mineral interest is subject to political risk. No one will deny that money to be received several years in the future has a greater value today in a country with a stable government, stable tax regime, a sound economy and reliable labor force than in a Third World country where a revolution is brewing. Even in stable countries, the risk of tax law changes, exorbitant environmental production regulations and cleanup costs may vary. How do these factors affect fair market value and how are these calculations made? An important consideration discussed in this paper is the treatment of capital investments

  2. The estimation of small probabilities and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalbfleisch, J.D.; Lawless, J.F.; MacKay, R.J.

    1982-01-01

    The primary contribution of statistics to risk assessment is in the estimation of probabilities. Frequently the probabilities in question are small, and their estimation is particularly difficult. The authors consider three examples illustrating some problems inherent in the estimation of small probabilities

  3. Prevalence of rearrangements in the 22q11.2 region and population-based risk of neuropsychiatric and developmental disorders in a Danish population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Line; Sparsø, Thomas; Weinsheimer, Shantel M

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although the pathogenic nature of copy number variants (CNVs) on chromosome 22q11.2 has been recognised for decades, unbiased estimates of their population prevalence, mortality, disease risks, and diagnostic trajectories are absent. We aimed to provide the true population prevalence ...

  4. Challenges associated with drunk driving measurement: combining police and self-reported data to estimate an accurate prevalence in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Tanara; Lunnen, Jeffrey C; Gonçalves, Veralice; Schmitz, Aurinez; Pasa, Graciela; Bastos, Tamires; Sripad, Pooja; Chandran, Aruna; Pechansky, Flavio

    2013-12-01

    Drunk driving is an important risk factor for road traffic crashes, injuries and deaths. After June 2008, all drivers in Brazil were subject to a "Zero Tolerance Law" with a set breath alcohol concentration of 0.1 mg/L of air. However, a loophole in this law enabled drivers to refuse breath or blood alcohol testing as it may self-incriminate. The reported prevalence of drunk driving is therefore likely a gross underestimate in many cities. To compare the prevalence of drunk driving gathered from police reports to the prevalence gathered from self-reported questionnaires administered at police sobriety roadblocks in two Brazilian capital cities, and to estimate a more accurate prevalence of drunk driving utilizing three correction techniques based upon information from those questionnaires. In August 2011 and January-February 2012, researchers from the Centre for Drug and Alcohol Research at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul administered a roadside interview on drunk driving practices to 805 voluntary participants in the Brazilian capital cities of Palmas and Teresina. Three techniques which include measures such as the number of persons reporting alcohol consumption in the last six hours but who had refused breath testing were used to estimate the prevalence of drunk driving. The prevalence of persons testing positive for alcohol on their breath was 8.8% and 5.0% in Palmas and Teresina respectively. Utilizing a correction technique we calculated that a more accurate prevalence in these sites may be as high as 28.2% and 28.7%. In both cities, about 60% of drivers who self-reported having drank within six hours of being stopped by the police either refused to perform breathalyser testing; fled the sobriety roadblock; or were not offered the test, compared to about 30% of drivers that said they had not been drinking. Despite the reduction of the legal limit for drunk driving stipulated by the "Zero Tolerance Law," loopholes in the legislation permit many

  5. Prevalence, trends and risk factors for the diabetes epidemic in China: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Hui; Shi, Zumin; Hussain, Akhtar

    2014-04-01

    To describe the prevalence and trends of diabetes and to quantitatively assess its risk factors in mainland China. Thirty-one epidemiological studies were identified by a systematic search of four databases. Prevalence estimates were mapped and summarized by meta-analysis in each region of China. The pooled ORs and 95% CIs of risk factors for diabetes were also calculated. There was a large geographical imbalance with regard to the prevalence of diabetes. Region-pooled prevalence was highest in the eastern region (8.0%, 95% CI: 6.1-10.0%) and lowest in the western region (4.6%, 95% CI: 3.3-6.0%), which was consistent with regional levels of economic development. The overall prevalence of diabetes has been increasing since 1980. Traditional risk factors such as age, family history of diabetes, obesity, hypertension and elevated triglycerides were found to be associated with diabetes. In addition, urban residence and being from ethnic minorities were also significantly associated. Based on the meta-analyses, we found that the prevalence of diabetes is different in different parts of China but it has been increasing sharply during the last three decades. Some risk factors were quantitatively derived in the study, which are free from the diversity of a single sample. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Prevalence and risk factors of dental erosion in American children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Mariam; Hottel, Timothy L; Hong, Liang

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence and characteristics of dental erosion in children aged 2-4 years old and 12 years old. 243 subjects were recruited from daycare centers, preschools, and grade schools; they received dental examinations assessing their condition of dental erosion, including both depth and area of tooth surface loss on four maxillary incisors. Questionnaires were given to the subjects to obtain socio-demographic, oral health behaviors at home, and access to dental care. Dental erosion was analyzed and risk factors were assessed using Chi-Square and logistic regression analysis. The subjects were 60% Caucasians, 31% Black, 7% Hispanic and others were 2%. 34% of children could not get the dental care they needed within the past 12 months and 61% of all children brushed their teeth twice or more daily. Overall, 12% of study children had dental erosion with 13% for 2-4 years old and 10% for 12 years old, with the majority of erosive lesions within enamel. Family income (OR 3.98, p = 0.021) and acidic fruit juice consumption (OR 2.38, p = 0.038) were significant risk factors for dental erosion, even after controlling for other factors, such as source of drinking water and oral hygiene using logistic regression analysis. Dental erosion is a relatively common problem among the children in this study and it is seen as a multi-factorial process.

  7. Prevalence and risk factors of CKD in Chinese patients with periodontal disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kejin Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Periodontal disease is common among adults and is associated with an increasing risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD. We aimed to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of CKD in patients with periodontal disease in China. METHODS: In the current cross-sectional study, patients with periodontal disease were included from Guangdong Provincial Stomatological Hospital between March 2011 and August 2011. CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2, the presence of albuminuria, or hematuria. All patients with periodontal disease underwent a periodontal examination, including periodontal probing pocket depth, gingival recession, and clinical attachment level by Florida Probe. They completed a questionnaire and had blood and urine samples taken. The adjusted prevalence of indicators of kidney damage was calculated and risk factors associated with CKD were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 1392 patients with periodontal disease were invited to participate this study and 1268 completed the survey and examination. After adjusting for age and sex, the prevalence of reduced eGFR, albuminuria, and hematuria was 2.7% (95% CI 1.7-3.7, 6.7% (95% CI 5.5-8.1 and 10.9% (95% CI 9.2-12.5, respectively. The adjusted prevalence of CKD was 18.2% (95% CI 16.2-20.3. Age, male, diabetes, hypertension, history of CKD, hyperuricemia, and interleukin-6 levels (≥7.54 ng/L were independent risk factors for reduced eGFR. Female, diabetes, hypertension, history of CKD, hyperuricemia, high level of cholesterol, and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP (≥ 1.03 mg/L and TNF-α levels (≥ 1.12 ng/L were independently associated with an increased risk of albuminuria. Female, lower education (risk factors for hematuria. CONCLUSIONS: 18.2% of Chinese patients with periodontal disease have proteinuria, hematuria, or reduced eGFR, indicating the presence of kidney damage

  8. Prevalence of bovine brucellosis and related risk behavior in the suburban area of Dakar, Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Tialla

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and the frequency of risk behaviors in the zoonotic transmission of bovine brucellosis in suburban Dakar. The individual serological status of 300 cattle distributed in thirty farms in this area was determined by the rose Bengal and complement fixation tests. The frequency of risk behaviors toward this zoonosis was determined using two epidemiological surveys that inventoried the known risk factors of brucellosis transmission between animals and humans. Taking into account the sensitivity and specificity of rose Bengal and complement fixation tests used in series, i.e. 85% and 98.75 %, respectively, the true prevalence was estimated to be 36.36%. At least one animal was infected in 96.6% of the herds. Positivity to the complement fixation test was significantly associated with age, breed, abortion and the presence of bursitis in cattle. The risk behaviors the most frequently observed in humans in this area were: assisting during calving and abortion, handling of aborted fetuses without gloves, and consuming unpasteurized raw or curd milk and fresh cheese. These results show that brucellosis is present in dairy cattle farms in suburban Dakar. Since the milk produced in these farms is used to supply the city of Dakar, measures must be developed to promote brucellosis prevention methods aimed at Dakar’s population.

  9. Prevalence of undiagnosed cardiovascular risk factors and 10-year CVD risk in male steel industry workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Mellalieu, Stephen D; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

    2014-05-01

    To assess the prevalence of undiagnosed cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a cohort of male steelworkers in South Wales, UK. Male steel industry workers (n = 221) with no prior diagnosis of CVD or diabetes accepted a CVD risk assessment within the work environment. Demographic, anthropometric, family, and medical histories were all recorded and capillary blood samples obtained. The 10-year CVD risk was predicted using the QRISK2-2012 algorithm. Up to 81.5% of workers were either overweight or obese. More than 20% of workers were found to have diastolic hypertension, high total cholesterol, and/or a total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein ratio of six or more. Over one quarter of workers assessed had an increased 10-year CVD risk. Despite a physically demanding occupation, risk assessment in the workplace uncovered significant occult factors in CVD risk in a sample of male heavy industry workers.

  10. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Infertility for Han, Uygur, and Kazakh Ethnicities in Xinjiang Rural Residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jing; Wang, Songfeng; Gao, Qi; Cai, Xia; La, Xiaolin

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the prevalence and associated factors of current infertility for Han, Uygur, and Kazakh ethnicities in Xinjiang rural residents. Chinese Uygur, Kazakh, and Han populations represent > 90% of the total population of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and their customs, culture, and food consumption are different. The effect of ethnic differences on infertility risk factors is rarely studied. A cross-sectional study of 5,086 married and common-law couples, with a female partner aged 18-49, living in Hami, Kuche, or Xinyuan counties in Xinjiang, China. General information for the study subjects, including demographic characteristics, life customs, sexual history, history of contraception use, and history of disease, was collected by questionnaire. General health, gynecologic examinations, and sociodemographic characteristics were also carried out. A total of 5,086 females from Xinjiang Province were surveyed, including 493 with infertility. The standardized prevalence rate of infertility was 9.7% (95% CI 8.9-10.5), and the prevalence of infertility in Han, Uygur, and Kazakh ethnicities was 6.8% (95% CI 5.7-7.9), 10.9% (95% CI 8.0-13.8), and 10.1% (95% CI 7.4-12.8), respectively. The present study suggests that the prevalence of infertility was lower in the Han as compared to the Kazakh and Uygur ethnicities.

  11. Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, H. Ross; Butland, Barbara K.; Donkelaar, Aaron Matthew Van; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; hide

    2012-01-01

    Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1deg × 0.1deg and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1deg × 1deg to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001-2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was -0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was -0.116 (95% CI: -0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was -0.139 (95% CI: -0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was -0.171 (95% CI: -0.275, -0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution, we did not find

  12. Estimation of extreme risk regions under multivariate regular variation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; de Haan, L.F.M.

    2011-01-01

    When considering d possibly dependent random variables, one is often interested in extreme risk regions, with very small probability p. We consider risk regions of the form {z ∈ Rd : f (z) ≤ β}, where f is the joint density and β a small number. Estimation of such an extreme risk region is difficult

  13. Probabilistic fuzzy systems in value-at-risk estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

    2009-01-01

    Value-at-risk (VaR) is a popular measure for quantifying the market risk that a financial institution faces into a single number. Owing to the complexity of financial markets, the risks associated with a portfolio varies over time. Consequently, advanced methods of VaR estimation use parametric

  14. Estimated prevalence of halitosis: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Manuela F; Leite, Fábio R M; Ferreira, Larissa B; Pola, Natália M; Scannapieco, Frank A; Demarco, Flávio F; Nascimento, Gustavo G

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to conduct a systematic review to determine the prevalence of halitosis in adolescents and adults. Electronic searches were performed using four different databases without restrictions: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and SciELO. Population-based observational studies that provided data about the prevalence of halitosis in adolescents and adults were included. Additionally, meta-analyses, meta-regression, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to synthesize the evidence. A total of 584 articles were initially found and considered for title and abstract evaluation. Thirteen articles met inclusion criteria. The combined prevalence of halitosis was found to be 31.8% (95% CI 24.6-39.0%). Methodological aspects such as the year of publication and the socioeconomic status of the country where the study was conducted seemed to influence the prevalence of halitosis. Our results demonstrated that the estimated prevalence of halitosis was 31.8%, with high heterogeneity between studies. The results suggest a worldwide trend towards a rise in halitosis prevalence. Given the high prevalence of halitosis and its complex etiology, dental professionals should be aware of their roles in halitosis prevention and treatment.

  15. Development of cancer risk estimates from epidemiologic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, E.W.

    1983-01-01

    Radiation risk estimates may be made for an increase in mortality from, or for an increase in incidence of, particular types of disease. For both endpoints, two numerical systems of risk expression are used: the absolute risk system (usually the excess deaths or cases per million persons per year per rad), and the relative risk system (usually excess deaths or cases per year per rad expressed as a percentage of those normally expected). Risks may be calculated for specific age groups or for a general population. An alternative in both risk systems is the estimation of cumulative of lifetime risk rather than annual risk (e.g. in excess deaths per million per rad over a specified long period including the remainder of lifespan). The derivation of both absolute and relative risks is illustrated by examples. The effects on risk estimates of latent period, follow-up time, age at exposure and age standardization within dose groups are illustrated. The dependence of the projected cumulative (lifetime) risk on the adoption of a constant absolute risk or constant relative risk is noted. The use of life-table data in the adjustment of cumulative risk for normal mortality following single or annual doses is briefly discussed

  16. Prevalence of family violence in adults and children : Estimates using the capture-recapture method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterlee, A.; Vink, R.M.; Smit, F.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Reliable prevalence estimates of family violence in adults and children are difficult to obtain. Most are based on surveys or registration counts, whose research designs and methods are often questionable, making the results difficult to compare. This article presents an alternative

  17. Specific and unspecific gynecological alarm symptoms -prevalence estimates in different age groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balasubramaniam, Kirubakaran; Ravn, Pernille; Larsen, Pia V

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine prevalence estimates of gynecological alarm symptoms in different age groups and to describe common patterns of gynecological symptoms. DESIGN: Web-based cross-sectional survey study. SETTING: Nationwide in Denmark. POPULATION: A random sample of 51 090 women aged 20 years...

  18. HIV Risk, Prevalence, and Access to Care Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Lebanon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimer, Robert; Barbour, Russell; Khouri, Danielle; Crawford, Forrest W; Shebl, Fatma; Aaraj, Elie; Khoshnood, Kaveh

    2017-11-01

    Little is known about HIV prevalence and risk among men who have sex with men (MSM) in much of the Middle East, including Lebanon. Recent national-level surveillance has suggested an increase in HIV prevalence concentrated among men in Lebanon. We undertook a biobehavioral study to provide direct evidence for the spread of HIV. MSM were recruited by respondent-driven sampling, interviewed, and offered HIV testing anonymously at sites located in Beirut, Lebanon, from October 2014 through February 2015. The interview questionnaire was designed to obtain information on participants' sociodemographic situation, sexual behaviors, alcohol and drug use, health, HIV testing and care, and experiences of stigma and discrimination. Individuals not reporting an HIV diagnosis were offered optional, anonymous HIV testing. Among the 292 MSM recruited, we identified 36 cases of HIV (12.3%). A quarter of the MSM were born in Syria and recently arrived in Lebanon. Condom use was uncommon; 65% reported condomless sex with other men. Group sex encounters were reported by 22% of participants. Among the 32 individuals already aware of their infection, 30 were in treatment and receiving antiretroviral therapy. HIV prevalence was substantially increased over past estimates. Efforts to control future increases will have to focus on reducing specific risk behaviors and experience of stigma and abuse, especially among Syrian refugees.

  19. Prevalence estimates of combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder: critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Lisa K; Frueh, B Christopher; Acierno, Ronald

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to provide a critical review of prevalence estimates of combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among military personnel and veterans, and of the relevant factors that may account for the variability of estimates within and across cohorts, including methodological and conceptual factors accounting for differences in prevalence rates across nations, conflicts/wars, and studies. MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases were examined for literature on combat-related PTSD. The following terms were used independently and in combinations in this search: PTSD, combat, veterans, military, epidemiology, prevalence. The point prevalence of combat-related PTSD in US military veterans since the Vietnam War ranged from approximately 2% to 17%. Studies of recent conflicts suggest that combat-related PTSD afflicts between 4% and 17% of US Iraq War veterans, but only 3-6% of returning UK Iraq War veterans. Thus, the prevalence range is narrower and tends to have a lower ceiling among combat veterans of non-US Western nations. Variability in prevalence is likely due to differences in sampling strategies; measurement strategies; inclusion and measurement of the DSM-IV clinically significant impairment criterion; timing and latency of assessment and potential for recall bias; and combat experiences. Prevalence rates are also likely affected by issues related to PTSD course, chronicity, and comorbidity; symptom overlap with other psychiatric disorders; and sociopolitical and cultural factors that may vary over time and by nation. The disorder represents a significant and costly illness to veterans, their families, and society as a whole. Further carefully conceptualized research, however, is needed to advance our understanding of disorder prevalence, as well as associated information on course, phenomenology, protective factors, treatment, and economic costs.

  20. Risk factors and prevalence of burnout syndrome in the nursing profession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cañadas-De la Fuente, Guillermo A; Vargas, Cristina; San Luis, Concepción; García, Inmaculada; Cañadas, Gustavo R; De la Fuente, Emilia I

    2015-01-01

    The burnout syndrome is beginning to be regarded as an occupational illness of high prevalence among nursing in Spain. Individuals suffering from the syndrome manifest important health problems. More information about prevalence and risk factors for burnout is needed to prevent the syndrome and to determine the most appropriate clinical interventions when the disorder appears. Burnout levels were evaluated in a group of nurses. The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence of burnout, to identify the variables related to burnout and to propose a risk profile for this syndrome among the nursing personnel. The study was carried out in public health centers in Andalusia (Spain). The sample consisted of 676 nursing professionals from public health centers. Dependent variables were the three Burnout dimensions: emotional exhaustion, depersonalization and personal accomplishment. Independent variables were socio-demographic, organizational, personality-related variables. The nurses manifested average to high burnout levels. There were statistically significant differences in burnout levels associated with the following variables: age, gender, marital status, having children, level of healthcare, type of work shift, healthcare service areas and conducting administrative tasks. Burnout was also associated with personality-related variables. The prevalence of burnout among nursing professionals is high. Gender, age, marital status, level of healthcare, work shift and healthcare service areas predicted at least one of the dimensions of the syndrome. Neuroticism, agreeability, extraversion and conscientiousness are personality traits that predict at least two of the dimensions of burnout syndrome in nurses. Therefore, personality factors should be considered in any theory of risk profiles for developing burnout syndrome in the nursing profession. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Estimates of lifetime infertility from three states: the behavioral risk factor surveillance system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Sara; Fussman, Chris; Bailey, Marie; Bernson, Dana; Jamieson, Denise J; Murray-Jordan, Melissa; Kissin, Dmitry M

    2015-07-01

    Knowledge of state-specific infertility is limited. The objectives of this study were to explore state-specific estimates of lifetime prevalence of having ever experienced infertility, sought treatment for infertility, types of treatments sought, and treatment outcomes. Male and female adult residents aged 18-50 years from three states involved in the States Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technology Collaborative (Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan) were asked state-added infertility questions as part of the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a state-based, health-related telephone survey. Analysis involved estimation of lifetime prevalence of infertility. The estimated lifetime prevalence of infertility among 1,285 adults in Florida, 1,302 in Massachusetts, and 3,360 in Michigan was 9.7%, 6.0%, and 4.2%, respectively. Among 736 adults in Florida, 1,246 in Massachusetts, and 2,742 in Michigan that have ever tried to get pregnant, the lifetime infertility prevalence was 25.3% in Florida, 9.9% in Massachusetts, and 5.8% in Michigan. Among those with a history of infertility, over half sought treatment (60.7% in Florida, 70.6% in Massachusetts, and 51.6% in Michigan), the most common being non-assisted reproductive technology fertility treatments (61.3% in Florida, 66.0% in Massachusetts, and 75.9% in Michigan). State-specific estimates of lifetime infertility prevalence in Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan varied. Variations across states are difficult to interpret, as they likely reflect both true differences in prevalence and differences in data collection questionnaires. State-specific estimates are needed for the prevention, detection, and management of infertility, but estimates should be based on a common set of questions appropriate for these goals.

  2. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in postmenopausal women: A rural study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vishal R Tandon

    2010-01-01

    Conclusion: This study showed alarmingly high prevalence of most of the conventional CVRFs, especially diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, obesity, and other risk factors in postmenopausal women from rural areas.

  3. Estimating Steatosis Prevalence in Overweight and Obese Children: Comparison of Bayesian Small Area and Direct Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Khalkhali

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background Often, there is no access to sufficient sample size to estimate the prevalence using the method of direct estimator in all areas. The aim of this study was to compare small area’s Bayesian method and direct method in estimating the prevalence of steatosis in obese and overweight children. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, was conducted on 150 overweight and obese children aged 2 to 15 years referred to the Children's digestive clinic of Urmia University of Medical Sciences- Iran, in 2013. After Body mass index (BMI calculation, children with overweight and obese were assessed in terms of primary tests of obesity screening. Then children with steatosis confirmed by abdominal Ultrasonography, were referred to the laboratory for doing further tests. Steatosis prevalence was estimated by direct and Bayesian method and their efficiency were evaluated using mean-square error Jackknife method. The study data was analyzed using the open BUGS3.1.2 and R2.15.2 software. Results: The findings indicated that estimation of steatosis prevalence in children using Bayesian and direct methods were between 0.3098 to 0.493, and 0.355 to 0.560 respectively, in Health Districts; 0.3098 to 0.502, and 0.355 to 0.550 in Education Districts; 0.321 to 0.582, and 0.357 to 0.615 in age groups; 0.313 to 0.429, and 0.383 to 0.536 in sex groups. In general, according to the results, mean-square error of Bayesian estimation was smaller than direct estimation (P

  4. National South African HIV prevalence estimates robust despite substantial test non-participation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy Harling

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. South African (SA national HIV seroprevalence estimates are of crucial policy relevance in the country, and for the worldwide HIV response. However, the most recent nationally representative HIV test survey in 2012 had 22% test non-participation, leaving the potential for substantial bias in current seroprevalence estimates, even after controlling for selection on observed factors. Objective. To re-estimate national HIV prevalence in SA, controlling for bias due to selection on both observed and unobserved factors in the 2012 SA National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey. Methods. We jointly estimated regression models for consent to test and HIV status in a Heckman-type bivariate probit framework. As selection variable, we used assigned interviewer identity, a variable known to predict consent but highly unlikely to be associated with interviewees’ HIV status. From these models, we estimated the HIV status of interviewed participants who did not test. Results. Of 26 710 interviewed participants who were invited to test for HIV, 21.3% of females and 24.3% of males declined. Interviewer identity was strongly correlated with consent to test for HIV; declining a test was weakly associated with HIV serostatus. Our HIV prevalence estimates were not significantly different from those using standard methods to control for bias due to selection on observed factors: 15.1% (95% confidence interval (CI 12.1 - 18.6 v. 14.5% (95% CI 12.8 - 16.3 for 15 - 49-year-old males; 23.3% (95% CI 21.7 - 25.8 v. 23.2% (95% CI 21.3 - 25.1 for 15 - 49-year-old females. Conclusion. The most recent SA HIV prevalence estimates are robust under the strongest available test for selection bias due to missing data. Our findings support the reliability of inferences drawn from such data.

  5. Prevalence of major skin diseases of cattle and associated risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dermatophilosis was significantly (p<0.05) higher in animals 2-5 years of age, cross breed and semi-intensively managed cattle. Generally, the prevalence of tick was high, that of lice and mange mite was moderate prevalence whereas the prevalence of dermatophillosis, skin wart, LSD and photosensitization was low.

  6. Prevalence and risk factors of anemia in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristie Regine Klotz Zuffo

    2016-07-01

    pais, avaliação da ingestão de ferro por pesagem direta de alimentos e dosagem de hemoglobina por punção digital. Foram realizados testes de associação bivariados seguido pelo ajuste de uma regressão logística múltipla. Resultados: A prevalência de anemia foi de 34,7%. Os fatores associados à anemia foram: idade materna inferior a 28 anos (p = 0,03, crianças do sexo masculino (p = 0,02, com idade inferior a 24 meses (p = 0,01 e que não consumiam fontes alimentares de ferro (carne+feijão+verduras verdes escuras (p = 0,02. Não houve associação entre anemia e ingestão de ferro no CMEI. Porém, a ingestão de ferro foi bem abaixo do que recomenda a resolução do Fundo Nacional de Desenvolvimento da Educação, sendo possível observar maior prevalência de anemia nas crianças cuja ingestão de ferro, ferro heme e ferro não-heme apresentava-se abaixo da mediana. Conclusão: Em termos de saúde pública, a prevalência de anemia encontrada se caracteriza como um problema moderado na população estudada e demonstra a necessidade de articulação de ações interdisciplinares para a sua diminuição nos CMEIs. Keywords: Anemia, Risk factors, Infant nutrition, Iron, Palavras-chave: Anemia, Fatores de risco, Nutrição do lactente, Ferro

  7. Peripheral neuropathy in HIV: prevalence and risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Scott R.; Ellis, Ronald J.; Chen, Huichao; Yeh, Tzu-min; Lee, Anthony J.; Schifitto, Giovanni; Wu, Kunling; Bosch, Ronald J.; McArthur, Justin C.; Simpson, David M.; Clifford, David B.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives To estimate neuropathic sign/symptom rates with initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in HIV-infected ART-naive patients, and to investigate risk factors for: peripheral neuropathy and symptomatic peripheral neuropathy (SPN), recovery from peripheral neuropathy/SPN after neurotoxic ART (nART) discontinuation, and the absence of peripheral neuropathy/SPN while on nART. Design AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) Longitudinal Linked Randomized Trial participants who initiated cART in randomized trials for ART-naive patients were annually screened for symptoms/signs of peripheral neuropathy. ART use and disease characteristics were collected longitudinally. Methods Peripheral neuropathy was defined as at least mild loss of vibration sensation in both great toes or absent/hypoactive ankle reflexes bilaterally. SPN was defined as peripheral neuropathy and bilateral symptoms. Generalized estimating equation logistic regression was used to estimate associations. Results Two thousand, one hundred and forty-one participants were followed from January 2000 to June 2007. Rates of peripheral neuropathy/SPN at 3 years were 32.1/8.6% despite 87.1% with HIV-1RNA 400 copies/ml or less and 70.3% with CD4 greater than 350 cells/µl. Associations with higher odds of peripheral neuropathy included older patient age and current nART use. Associations with higher odds of SPN included older patient age, nART use, and history of diabetes mellitus. Associations with lower odds of recovery after nART discontinuation included older patient age. Associations with higher odds of peripheral neuropathy while on nART included older patient age and current protease inhibitor use. Associations with higher odds of SPN while on nART included older patient age, history of diabetes, taller height, and protease inhibitor use. Conclusion Signs of peripheral neuropathy remain despite virologic/immunologic control but frequently occurs without symptoms. Aging is a risk factor for

  8. Estimating Fire Risks at Industrial Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1999-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) has a wide variety of nuclear production facilities that include chemical processing facilities, machine shops, production reactors, and laboratories. Current safety documentation must be maintained for the nuclear facilities at SRS. Fire Risk Analyses (FRAs) are used to support the safety documentation basis. These FRAs present the frequency that specified radiological and chemical consequences will be exceeded. The consequence values are based on mechanistic models assuming specific fire protection features fail to function as designed

  9. Risk estimation for LCF crack initiation

    OpenAIRE

    Schmitz, Sebastian; Rollmann, Georg; Gottschalk, Hanno; Krause, Rolf

    2013-01-01

    An accurate risk assessment for fatigue damage is of vital importance for the design and service of today's turbomachinery components. We present an approach for quantifying the probability of crack initiation due to surface driven low-cycle fatigue (LCF). This approach is based on the theory of failure-time processes and takes inhomogeneous stress fields and size effects into account. The method has been implemented as a finite-element postprocessor which uses quadrature formulae of higher o...

  10. Gender-specific estimates of COPD prevalence: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ntritsos G

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Georgios Ntritsos,1 Jacob Franek,2 Lazaros Belbasis,1 Maria A Christou,1 Georgios Markozannes,1 Pablo Altman,3 Robert Fogel,3 Tobias Sayre,2 Evangelia E Ntzani,1 Evangelos Evangelou1,4 1Clinical and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece; 2Doctor Evidence, Client Solutions, Santa Monica, CA, USA; 3Global Medical Affairs, Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, East Hanover, NJ, USA; 4Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, UK Rationale: COPD has been perceived as being a disease of older men. However, >7 million women are estimated to live with COPD in the USA alone. Despite a growing body of literature suggesting an increasing burden of COPD in women, the evidence is limited. Objectives: To assess and synthesize the available evidence among population-based epidemiologic studies and calculate the global prevalence of COPD in men and women. Materials and methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis reporting gender-specific prevalence of COPD was undertaken. Gender-specific prevalence estimates were abstracted from relevant studies. Associated patient characteristics as well as custom variables pertaining to the diagnostic method and other important epidemiologic covariates were also collected. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was performed investigating gender-specific prevalence of COPD stratified by age, geography, calendar time, study setting, diagnostic method, and disease severity. Measurements and main results: Among 194 eligible studies, summary prevalence was 9.23% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 8.16%–10.36% in men and 6.16% (95% CrI: 5.41%–6.95% in women. Gender prevalences varied widely by the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease subregions, with the highest female prevalence found in North America (8.07% vs 7.30% and in participants in urban settings (13.03% vs 8.34%. Meta

  11. Epidemiological data and radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardis, E.

    2002-01-01

    The results of several major epidemiology studies on populations with particular exposure to ionizing radiation should become available during the first years of the 21. century. These studies are expected to provide answers to a number of questions concerning public health and radiation protection. Most of the populations concerned were accidentally exposed to radiation in ex-USSR or elsewhere or in a nuclear industrial context. The results will complete and test information on risk coming from studies among survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, particularly studies on the effects of low dose exposure and prolonged low-dose exposure, of different types of radiation, and environmental and host-related factors which could modify the risk of radiation-induced effects. These studies are thus important to assess the currently accepted scientific evidence on radiation protection for workers and the general population. In addition, supplementary information on radiation protection could be provided by formal comparisons and analyses combining data from populations with different types of exposure. Finally, in order to provide pertinent information for public health and radiation protection, future epidemiology studies should be targeted and designed to answer specific questions, concerning, for example, the risk for specific populations (children, patients, people with genetic predisposition). An integrated approach, combining epidemiology and studies on the mechanisms of radiation induction should provide particularly pertinent information. (author)

  12. Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

    1996-01-01

    Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

  13. Accuracy of Herdsmen Reporting versus Serologic Testing for Estimating Foot-and-Mouth Disease Prevalence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handel, Ian G.; Tanya, Vincent N.; Hamman, Saidou M.; Nfon, Charles; Bergman, Ingrid E.; Malirat, Viviana; Sorensen, Karl J.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. de C.

    2014-01-01

    Herdsman-reported disease prevalence is widely used in veterinary epidemiologic studies, especially for diseases with visible external lesions; however, the accuracy of such reports is rarely validated. Thus, we used latent class analysis in a Bayesian framework to compare sensitivity and specificity of herdsman reporting with virus neutralization testing and use of 3 nonstructural protein ELISAs for estimates of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence on the Adamawa plateau of Cameroon in 2000. Herdsman-reported estimates in this FMD-endemic area were comparable to those obtained from serologic testing. To harness to this cost-effective resource of monitoring emerging infectious diseases, we suggest that estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of herdsmen reporting should be done in parallel with serologic surveys of other animal diseases. PMID:25417556

  14. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

  15. HBV, HCV, and HIV infection prevalence among prison staff in the light of occupational risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Gańczak

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Objectives of the study: to assess the occupational risk for blood-borne infections (BBIs among prison staff (number/ circumstances of blood exposures and preventive methods used, and to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV, hepatitis C virus (HCV and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV. Material and Methods: The survey, which included serological testing with the use of 3-generation enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA was completed on active staff at a correctional facility in Goleniów, Poland, between June–July 2015. Results: Response rate was 38%, 87 participants (aged 22–64 years, median: 34 years agreed to participate. There were 88.5% males, correctional officers comprised 87.4% of the participants. Having had ≥ 1 blood exposure during professional career was reported by 28.7% respondents, 8% – sustained it in the preceding year. For correctional officers the last blood exposure was caused by a hollow-bore needle/razor blade during cell or manual searches. This was not reported by 83.3%. Participation rate in an infection control training was 85.1%. Hepatitis B virus vaccination uptake was 83.9%. Compliance with glove use was 75.9%, with protective eyewear – 28.7%. Regular use of both was reported by 9.2% of participants. The lack of their availability was the most common reason (79.7% for non-compliance. Anti-HBc (hepatitis B core antigen total/anti-HCV/anti-HIV prevalence was 2.3%, 1.1%, and 0%, respectively. Conclusions: Prison staff are at risk for occupational exposures to blood. Reporting of such incidents is poor, as well as compliance with personal protective equipment use, which place them at risk for acquiring BBIs. Anti-HCV prevalence is similar to that observed in the general population, anti-HBc total prevalence is lower, possibly due to high vaccination uptake, however, poor response rate limits precise prevalence estimates. Med Pr 2017;68(4:507–516

  16. Anxiety and dysthymia: local prevalence estimates based on drug prescriptions by general practitioners in Turin (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamo, C; Farina, E; Cicio, R; Fanì, M

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the study was to obtain local estimates of the prevalence of anxiety and dysthymic disorders among attendees of primary care at local level, useful to pursue a better management of the health care services. The study was conducted in the Health District no. 2 of Turin (industrial town in northwest Italy). The criteria for identification of cases were based on the drugs prescriptions made by general practitioners (GPs), selected in order to assure high specificity. The study involved 86 physicians (with 87,885 attendees). As expected, the crude and standardized prevalences were higher in women (anxiety: 2.9% vs 1.3% in men; dysthymia: 3.8% vs 1.7% in men), with a peak in women aged over 75 yrs (anxiety: 4.8%; dysthymia: 6.2%). In comparison to male GPs, female GPs had an higher prevalence of patients with anxious disorders, whereas the prevalences of dysthymia were similar. Despite the discussed limitations, the used methodology allows to obtain sufficiently reliable estimates of prevalence of common mental disorders at local level, providing informations useful for organizing the primary care in the Health district.

  17. Quantifying aggregated uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence and populations at risk via efficient space-time geostatistical joint simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Hay, Simon I

    2010-04-01

    Risk maps estimating the spatial distribution of infectious diseases are required to guide public health policy from local to global scales. The advent of model-based geostatistics (MBG) has allowed these maps to be generated in a formal statistical framework, providing robust metrics of map uncertainty that enhances their utility for decision-makers. In many settings, decision-makers require spatially aggregated measures over large regions such as the mean prevalence within a country or administrative region, or national populations living under different levels of risk. Existing MBG mapping approaches provide suitable metrics of local uncertainty--the fidelity of predictions at each mapped pixel--but have not been adapted for measuring uncertainty over large areas, due largely to a series of fundamental computational constraints. Here the authors present a new efficient approximating algorithm that can generate for the first time the necessary joint simulation of prevalence values across the very large prediction spaces needed for global scale mapping. This new approach is implemented in conjunction with an established model for P. falciparum allowing robust estimates of mean prevalence at any specified level of spatial aggregation. The model is used to provide estimates of national populations at risk under three policy-relevant prevalence thresholds, along with accompanying model-based measures of uncertainty. By overcoming previously unchallenged computational barriers, this study illustrates how MBG approaches, already at the forefront of infectious disease mapping, can be extended to provide large-scale aggregate measures appropriate for decision-makers.

  18. Pterygium in Indonesia: prevalence, severity and risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazzard, G; Saw, S-M; Farook, M; Koh, D; Widjaja, D; Chia, S-E; Hong, C-Y; Tan, D T H

    2002-01-01

    Aim: To determine prevalence rates, severity, and risk factors for pterygium in adults in provincial Indonesia and to validate a clinical grading scheme in a population based setting. Methods: A population based prevalence survey of 1210 adults aged 21 years and above was conducted in five rural villages and one provincial town in Riau province, Sumatra, Indonesia, an area near to the equator. A one stage household cluster sampling procedure was employed: 100 households were randomly selected from each village or town. Pterygia were graded for severity (T1 to T3, by visibility of episcleral vessels) and the basal and apical extent measured by an ophthalmologist (GG) with a hand held slit lamp. Refraction was measured by hand held autorefractor (Retinomax). Face to face household interviews assessed outdoor activity, occupation, and smoking. The participation rate was 96.7%. Results: The mean age was 36.6 years (SD 13.1), 612 were male. The age adjusted prevalence rate of any pterygium was 10.0% (95% confidence intervals (CI) 8.2 to 11.7) and of bilateral pterygia was 4.1% (95% CI 2.9 to 5.3). There was a significant dose-response relation with age (2.9% (95% CI 0.4 to 5.8) for 21–29 years versus 17.3% (95% CI 10.4 to 24.2) 50 years and above; p for trend <0.001) and occupations with more time outdoors (p for trend = 0.02). This was true for both sexes, all grades of lesion (T1 to T3), and bilateral disease. A multivariate logistic regression model showed pterygium was independently related to increasing age and outdoor activity 10 years earlier. The mean basal diameter = 3.3 mm (SD 1.51, range 0.1–9.5) and extent from limbus = 1.4 mm (SD 1.18, range 0.1–8.0). Higher grade pterygia were larger for basal and apical extent (p for trend <0.001). The presence of pterygium was associated with astigmatism (defined as cylinder at least −0.5 dioptres (D); p <0.001). This association increased with increasing grade of lesion (p for trend <0.001). Median cylinder for

  19. An estimation of the prevalence of genomic disorders using chromosomal microarray data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillentine, Madelyn A; Lupo, Philip J; Stankiewicz, Pawel; Schaaf, Christian P

    2018-04-24

    Multiple genomic disorders result from recurrent deletions or duplications between low copy repeat (LCR) clusters, mediated by nonallelic homologous recombination. These copy number variants (CNVs) often exhibit variable expressivity and/or incomplete penetrance. However, the population prevalence of many genomic disorders has not been estimated accurately. A subset of genomic disorders similarly characterized by CNVs between LCRs have been studied epidemiologically, including Williams-Beuren syndrome (7q11.23), Smith-Magenis syndrome (17p11.2), velocardiofacial syndrome (22q11.21), Prader-Willi/Angelman syndromes (15q11.2q12), 17q12 deletion syndrome, and Charcot-Marie-Tooth neuropathy type 1/hereditary neuropathy with liability to pressure palsy (PMP22, 17q11.2). We have generated a method to estimate prevalence of highly penetrant genomic disorders by (1) leveraging epidemiological data for genomic disorders with previously reported prevalence estimates, (2) obtaining chromosomal microarray data on genomic disorders from a large medical genetics clinic; and (3) utilizing these in a linear regression model to determine the prevalence of this syndromic copy number change among the general population. Using our algorithm, the prevalence for five clinically relevant recurrent genomic disorders: 1q21.1 microdeletion (1/6882 live births) and microduplication syndromes (1/6309), 15q13.3 microdeletion syndrome (1/5525), and 16p11.2 microdeletion (1/3021) and microduplication syndromes (1/4216), were determined. These findings will inform epidemiological strategies for evaluating those conditions, and our method may be useful to evaluate the prevalence of other highly penetrant genomic disorders.

  20. Leg disorders in broiler chickens: prevalence, risk factors and prevention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toby G Knowles

    Full Text Available Broiler (meat chickens have been subjected to intense genetic selection. In the past 50 years, broiler growth rates have increased by over 300% (from 25 g per day to 100 g per day. There is growing societal concern that many broiler chickens have impaired locomotion or are even unable to walk. Here we present the results of a comprehensive survey of commercial flocks which quantifies the risk factors for poor locomotion in broiler chickens. We assessed the walking ability of 51,000 birds, representing 4.8 million birds within 176 flocks. We also obtained information on approximately 150 different management factors associated with each flock. At a mean age of 40 days, over 27.6% of birds in our study showed poor locomotion and 3.3% were almost unable to walk. The high prevalence of poor locomotion occurred despite culling policies designed to remove severely lame birds from flocks. We show that the primary risk factors associated with impaired locomotion and poor leg health are those specifically associated with rate of growth. Factors significantly associated with high gait score included the age of the bird (older birds, visit (second visit to same flock, bird genotype, not feeding whole wheat, a shorter dark period during the day, higher stocking density at the time of assessment, no use of antibiotic, and the use of intact feed pellets. The welfare implications are profound. Worldwide approximately 2 x 10(10 broilers are reared within similar husbandry systems. We identify a range of management factors that could be altered to reduce leg health problems, but implementation of these changes would be likely to reduce growth rate and production. A debate on the sustainability of current practice in the production of this important food source is required.

  1. Binge drinking among adolescents: prevalence, risk practices and related variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golpe, Sandra; Isorna, Manuel; Barreiro, Carmen; Braña, Teresa; Rial, Antonio

    2017-09-29

    According to the last Survey on Drug Use among Secondary School Students (ESTUDES 2014-2015), consumption levels of alcohol and other substances have decreased in the last years in Spain. However, available data on binge drinking remain worrying, given the negative consequences related with this pattern. The aim of this paper is to analyse binge drinking among adolescents, providing updated data on prevalence in addition to information about the consequences and some predictive factors of binge drinking. A correlational method was used for this purpose, comprised of administering a survey to Compulsory Secondary School, High School and Vocational Training students. Based on a sample of 3,419 Galician adolescents aged between 12 and 18 years (M = 14.57; SD = 1.76), the results show that binge drinking is a common and global practice, with few socio-demographic differences but related with a wide range of risk practices. Furthermore, variables such as consumption expectancies, consumption by family and friends, as well as curfew time and allowance money have been identified as interesting predictive factors that should be taken into account at the preventive level.

  2. Obesity after pediatric liver transplantation: prevalence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundaram, Shikha S; Alonso, Estella M; Zeitler, Phil; Yin, Wanron; Anand, Ravinder

    2012-12-01

    Pediatric obesity has become a significant public health concern. The historical focus in pediatric liver transplant (LT) has been undernutrition, with limited knowledge regarding obesity. Therefore, we sought to determine the prevalence of obesity in pediatric LT, compare it to National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) data, and identify risk factors for obesity in pediatric LT. SPLIT, which collects pediatric LT data at 39 centers, was queried for subjects ages 2 to 18 years at follow-up, LT between 1995 and 2007, and with at least 1 body mass index measured 1 to 5 years after LT. Of 1706 individuals included, 44% had biliary atresia (47% boys, 58% white, mean age at LT 4.6 years). Of these individuals, 19% were obese at 1 year and 18% at 3 years, higher than in the general pediatric population reported by 2003-2004 NHANES, whereas 11% obesity at 5 years after LT was similar to NHANES data. Using logistic regression, Hispanic ethnicity (odds ratio [OR] 1.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-2.23), steroid use at follow-up (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.23-1.77), overweight (OR 4.34, 95% CI 2.91-6.68), and obesity (OR 10.62, 95% CI 5.9-19.65) at LT independently predicted post-LT obesity. These findings suggest a need to broaden standard care to include obesity assessment and intervention in routine pre- and posttransplant care.

  3. Comparing cancer screening estimates: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, Ann Goding; Liu, Benmei; Siegel, Rebecca L; Jemal, Ahmedin; Fedewa, Stacey A

    2018-01-01

    Cancer screening prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), designed to provide state-level estimates, and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), designed to provide national estimates, are used to measure progress in cancer control. A detailed description of the extent to which recent cancer screening estimates vary by key demographic characteristics has not been previously described. We examined national prevalence estimates for recommended breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening using data from the 2012 and 2014 BRFSS and the 2010 and 2013 NHIS. Treating the NHIS estimates as the reference, direct differences (DD) were calculated by subtracting NHIS estimates from BRFSS estimates. Relative differences were computed by dividing the DD by the NHIS estimates. Two-sample t-tests (2-tails), were performed to test for statistically significant differences. BRFSS screening estimates were higher than those from NHIS for breast (78.4% versus 72.5%; DD=5.9%, pNHIS, each survey has a unique and important role in providing information to track cancer screening utilization among various populations. Awareness of these differences and their potential causes is important when comparing the surveys and determining the best application for each data source. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Prevalence Rate and Risk Factors of Depression in Outpatients with Premature Ejaculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiansheng Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence rate and risk factors of depression in outpatients who were diagnosed with PE. Therefore, between September 2009 and September 2011, 1801 outpatients at andrology clinics were enrolled and consented to participate in our survey by completed a verbal questionnaire. It included the following: (1 demographic data (e.g., age, body mass index, (2 PE duration, medical history, and sexual history, (3 self-estimated intravaginal ejaculatory latency times, (4 the Zung Self-rating Depression Scale (SDS, and (5 the National Institute of Health Chronic Prostatitis Symptom Index (NIH-CPSI and (6 the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5. The results showed that a total of 1,206 patients were diagnosed with PE. The prevalence rate of depression in these PE patients was 26.78%. Depression was associated with PE duration, NIH-CPSI score, and IIEF-5 score. Risk factors for depression specifically included PE durations for 13–24, 25–60, or ≥61 months, CPSI scores of 15–30 or ≥31, and IIEF-5 scores <22. These findings suggested that several associated factors (PE duration, CPSI scores, and IIEF-5 scores were the risk factors of depression in men with PE.

  5. Maternal depressive symptomatology in México: National prevalence, care, and population risk profiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipa de Castro

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This study estimates the prevalence of depressive symptomatology (DS in women with children younger than five years of age, examines detection and care rates and probabilities of developing DS based on specific risk profiles. Materials and methods. The sample consists of 7 187 women with children younger than five drawn from the Ensanut 2012. Results. DS prevalence is 19.91%, which means at least 4.6 million children live with mothers who experience depressive symptoms indicative of moderate to severe depression. Rates of detection (17.06% and care (15.19% for depression are low. DS is associated with violence (OR=2.34; IC95% 1.06-5.15, having ≥4 children, having a female baby, older age of the last child, low birth weight, food insecurity, and sexual debut menor que 15 years old (p menor que 0.01. Accumulated probability of DS, taking into consideration all risk factors measured, is 69.76%. It could be reduced to 13.21% through prevention efforts focused on eliminating violence, food insecurity, bias against having a female baby, and low birth weight. Conclusions. DS is a compelling public health problem in Mexico associated with a well-defined set of risk factors that warrant attention and timely detection at various levels of care.

  6. Minimax estimation of qubit states with Bures risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Anirudh; Guţă, Mădălin

    2018-04-01

    The central problem of quantum statistics is to devise measurement schemes for the estimation of an unknown state, given an ensemble of n independent identically prepared systems. For locally quadratic loss functions, the risk of standard procedures has the usual scaling of 1/n. However, it has been noticed that for fidelity based metrics such as the Bures distance, the risk of conventional (non-adaptive) qubit tomography schemes scales as 1/\\sqrt{n} for states close to the boundary of the Bloch sphere. Several proposed estimators appear to improve this scaling, and our goal is to analyse the problem from the perspective of the maximum risk over all states. We propose qubit estimation strategies based on separate adaptive measurements, and collective measurements, that achieve 1/n scalings for the maximum Bures risk. The estimator involving local measurements uses a fixed fraction of the available resource n to estimate the Bloch vector direction; the length of the Bloch vector is then estimated from the remaining copies by measuring in the estimator eigenbasis. The estimator based on collective measurements uses local asymptotic normality techniques which allows us to derive upper and lower bounds to its maximum Bures risk. We also discuss how to construct a minimax optimal estimator in this setup. Finally, we consider quantum relative entropy and show that the risk of the estimator based on collective measurements achieves a rate O(n-1log n) under this loss function. Furthermore, we show that no estimator can achieve faster rates, in particular the ‘standard’ rate n ‑1.

  7. The prevalence and risk factors for gallstone disease in taiwanese vegetarians.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen-Chun Chen

    Full Text Available Gallstone disease (GSD and its complications are major public health issues globally. Although many community-based studies had addressed the risk factors for GSD, little is known about GSD prevalence and risk factors among Taiwanese vegetarians.This study included 1721 vegetarians who completed a questionnaire detailing their demographics, medical history, and life-styles. GSD was ascertained by ultrasonography or surgical history of cholecystectomy for GSD. The predictive probability of GSD for male and female vegetarians was estimated from the fitted model.The prevalence of GSD was 8.2% for both male and female vegetarians. The risk of GSD is similar in men and women across all age groups, and increases steadily with increasing age. For male vegetarians, age (OR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.00-1.08 and serum total bilirubin level (OR: 2.35; 95% CI: 1.31-4.22 predict risk for GSD. For female vegetarians, age (OR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05, BMI (OR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01-1.13, and alcohol consumption (OR: 7.85; 95% CI: 1.83-33.73 are associated with GSD. GSD is not associated with type of vegetarian diet, duration of vegetarianism, low education level, physical inactivity, diabetes, coronary artery disease, cerebral vascular accident, chronic renal failure, hepatitis C virus infection, and lipid abnormalities. GSD is also not associated with age at menarche, postmenopausal status, and multiparity in female vegetarians.Risk factors useful for predicting GSD in vegetarians are (1 age and total bilirubin level in men, and (2 age, BMI, and alcohol consumption in women. Many previously identified risk factors for general population does not seem to apply to Taiwanese vegetarians.

  8. The prevalence and risk factors for gallstone disease in taiwanese vegetarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yen-Chun; Chiou, Chia; Lin, Ming-Nan; Lin, Chin-Lon

    2014-01-01

    Gallstone disease (GSD) and its complications are major public health issues globally. Although many community-based studies had addressed the risk factors for GSD, little is known about GSD prevalence and risk factors among Taiwanese vegetarians. This study included 1721 vegetarians who completed a questionnaire detailing their demographics, medical history, and life-styles. GSD was ascertained by ultrasonography or surgical history of cholecystectomy for GSD. The predictive probability of GSD for male and female vegetarians was estimated from the fitted model. The prevalence of GSD was 8.2% for both male and female vegetarians. The risk of GSD is similar in men and women across all age groups, and increases steadily with increasing age. For male vegetarians, age (OR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.00-1.08) and serum total bilirubin level (OR: 2.35; 95% CI: 1.31-4.22) predict risk for GSD. For female vegetarians, age (OR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05), BMI (OR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01-1.13), and alcohol consumption (OR: 7.85; 95% CI: 1.83-33.73) are associated with GSD. GSD is not associated with type of vegetarian diet, duration of vegetarianism, low education level, physical inactivity, diabetes, coronary artery disease, cerebral vascular accident, chronic renal failure, hepatitis C virus infection, and lipid abnormalities. GSD is also not associated with age at menarche, postmenopausal status, and multiparity in female vegetarians. Risk factors useful for predicting GSD in vegetarians are (1) age and total bilirubin level in men, and (2) age, BMI, and alcohol consumption in women. Many previously identified risk factors for general population does not seem to apply to Taiwanese vegetarians.

  9. A scoping review of prevalence, incidence and risk factors for HIV infection amongst young people in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saffier, Igor Pedrosa; Kawa, Hélia; Harling, Guy

    2017-10-11

    Despite young people being a key population for HIV prevention, the HIV epidemic amongst young Brazilians is perceived to be growing. We therefore reviewed all published literature on HIV prevalence and risk factors for HIV infection amongst 10-25 year olds in Brazil. We searched Embase, LILACS, Proquest, PsycINFO, PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science for studies published up to March 2017 and analyzed reference lists of relevant studies. We included published studies from any time in the HIV epidemic which provided estimates specific to ages 10-25 (or some subset of this age range) for Brazilians on either: (a) HIV prevalence or incidence; or (b) the association between HIV and socio-demographic or behavioral risk factors. Forty eight publications met the inclusion criteria: 44 cross-sectional, two case-control, two cohort. Four studies analysed national data. Forty seven studies provided HIV prevalence estimates, largely for six population subgroups: Counselling and Testing Center attendees; blood donors; pregnant women; institutional individuals; men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) and female sex workers (FSW); four provided HIV incidence estimates. Twelve studies showed HIV status to be associated with a wide range of risk factors, including age, sexual and reproductive history, infection history, substance use, geography, marital status, mental health and socioeconomic status. Few published studies have examined HIV amongst young people in Brazil, and those published have been largely cross-sectional and focused on traditional risk groups and the south of the country. Despite these limitations, the literature shows raised HIV prevalence amongst MSM and FSW, as well as amongst those using drugs. Time trends are harder to identify, although rates appear to be falling for pregnant women, possibly reversing an earlier de-masculinization of the epidemic. Improved surveillance of HIV incidence, prevalence and risk factors is a key component of efforts to eliminate HIV in

  10. Estimating and comparing risks in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Llewellyn, Gareth

    1998-01-01

    The current position of power generation in UK is balanced. Recently 16 advanced gas cooled reactors are in operation. Privatisation of most power generation plants is done. Some trialing of environmental premia is performed. Environmental management is very strong. Nuclear power status in the UK is as follows: 16 Advanced gas cooled reactors, 1 Pressurised water reactor, Nuclear Electric/Scottish Nuclear in commercial operation; out of 18 Magnox reactors in operation 3 are decommissioned, 8 are due to stop operating before 2000. Non-nuclear fuel used are coal, oil, gas, hydropower. Besides carbon dioxide emissions emerging issue is rad waste disposal. This presentation deals with the strategic risk assessment in power generation sector

  11. Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniyama, Yukari; Katanoda, Kota; Charvat, Hadrien; Hori, Megumi; Ohno, Yuko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2017-11-01

    To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category. Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method. The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively. Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  12. Prevalence and risk of violence and the physical, mental, and sexual health problems associated with human trafficking: systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siân Oram

    Full Text Available There is very limited evidence on the health consequences of human trafficking. This systematic review reports on studies investigating the prevalence and risk of violence while trafficked and the prevalence and risk of physical, mental, and sexual health problems, including HIV, among trafficked people.We conducted a systematic review comprising a search of Medline, PubMed, PsycINFO, EMBASE, and Web of Science, hand searches of reference lists of included articles, citation tracking, and expert recommendations. We included peer-reviewed papers reporting on the prevalence or risk of violence while trafficked and/or on the prevalence or risk of any measure of physical, mental, or sexual health among trafficked people. Two reviewers independently screened papers for eligibility and appraised the quality of included studies. The search identified 19 eligible studies, all of which reported on trafficked women and girls only and focused primarily on trafficking for sexual exploitation. The review suggests a high prevalence of violence and of mental distress among women and girls trafficked for sexual exploitation. The random effects pooled prevalence of diagnosed HIV was 31.9% (95% CI 21.3%-42.4% in studies of women accessing post-trafficking support in India and Nepal, but the estimate was associated with high heterogeneity (I² = 83.7%. Infection prevalence may be related as much to prevalence rates in women's areas of origin or exploitation as to the characteristics of their experience. Findings are limited by the methodological weaknesses of primary studies and their poor comparability and generalisability.Although limited, existing evidence suggests that trafficking for sexual exploitation is associated with violence and a range of serious health problems. Further research is needed on the health of trafficked men, individuals trafficked for other forms of exploitation, and effective health intervention approaches.

  13. Prevalence and risk of violence and the physical, mental, and sexual health problems associated with human trafficking: systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oram, Siân; Stöckl, Heidi; Busza, Joanna; Howard, Louise M; Zimmerman, Cathy

    2012-01-01

    There is very limited evidence on the health consequences of human trafficking. This systematic review reports on studies investigating the prevalence and risk of violence while trafficked and the prevalence and risk of physical, mental, and sexual health problems, including HIV, among trafficked people. We conducted a systematic review comprising a search of Medline, PubMed, PsycINFO, EMBASE, and Web of Science, hand searches of reference lists of included articles, citation tracking, and expert recommendations. We included peer-reviewed papers reporting on the prevalence or risk of violence while trafficked and/or on the prevalence or risk of any measure of physical, mental, or sexual health among trafficked people. Two reviewers independently screened papers for eligibility and appraised the quality of included studies. The search identified 19 eligible studies, all of which reported on trafficked women and girls only and focused primarily on trafficking for sexual exploitation. The review suggests a high prevalence of violence and of mental distress among women and girls trafficked for sexual exploitation. The random effects pooled prevalence of diagnosed HIV was 31.9% (95% CI 21.3%-42.4%) in studies of women accessing post-trafficking support in India and Nepal, but the estimate was associated with high heterogeneity (I² = 83.7%). Infection prevalence may be related as much to prevalence rates in women's areas of origin or exploitation as to the characteristics of their experience. Findings are limited by the methodological weaknesses of primary studies and their poor comparability and generalisability. Although limited, existing evidence suggests that trafficking for sexual exploitation is associated with violence and a range of serious health problems. Further research is needed on the health of trafficked men, individuals trafficked for other forms of exploitation, and effective health intervention approaches.

  14. Donor testing and risk: current prevalence, incidence, and residual risk of transfusion-transmissible agents in US allogeneic donations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Shimian; Stramer, Susan L; Dodd, Roger Y

    2012-04-01

    Over the past 20 years, there has been a major increase in the safety of the blood supply, as demonstrated by declining rates of posttransfusion infection and reductions in estimated residual risk for such infections. Reliable estimates of residual risk have been possible within the American Red Cross system because of the availability of a large amount of reliable and consistent data on donations and infectious disease testing results. Among allogeneic blood donations, the prevalence rates of infection markers for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus have decreased over time, although rates for markers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and human T-cell lymphotropic virus did not. The incidence (/100 000 person-years) of HIV and HCV among repeat donors showed apparent increases from 1.55 and 1.89 in 2000 through 2001 to 2.16 and 2.98 in 2007 through 2008. These observed fluctuations confirm the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation. The residual risk of HIV, HCV, and human T-cell lymphotropic virus among all allogeneic donations is currently below 1 per 1 million donations, and that of hepatitis B surface antigen is close to 1 per 300 000 donations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Prevalence and risk factors for foot and mouth disease infection in small ruminants in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elnekave, Ehud; van Maanen, Kees; Shilo, Hila; Gelman, Boris; Storm, Nick; Berdenstain, Svetlane; Berke, Olaf; Klement, Eyal

    2016-03-01

    During the last decade, 27% of the foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Israel affected small ruminant (SR) farms. FMD outbreaks reoccur in Israel despite vaccination of all livestock and application of control measures. We performed a cross-sectional serological study, aimed at estimating the prevalence of FMD infection in SR in Israel and the possible risk factors for infection. Overall, 2305 samples of adult sheep (n=1948) and goats (n=357) were collected during 2011-14 in two separate surveys. One survey was based on random sampling of intensive management system farms and the other was originally aimed at the detection of Brucella melitensis at extensive and semi-intensive management system farms. Sera were tested by NS blocking ELISA (PrioCHECK(®)). The serological prevalence of antibodies against non structural proteins (NSP) of FMD virus was estimated at 3.7% (95% confidence interval (CI95%)=3.0% -4.5%). Additionally, a significantly lower infection prevalence (p value=0.049) of 1.0% (CI95%=0.1%-3.6%) was found in a small sample (197 sera) of young SR, collected during 2012. The positive samples from adult SR were scattered all over Israel, though two significant infection clusters were found by the spatial scan statistic. Occurrence of an outbreak on a non-SR farm within 5km distance was associated with a fifteen times increase in the risk of FMD infection of SR in the univariable analysis. Yet, this variable was not included in the multivariable analysis due to collinearities with the other independent variables. Multivariable logistic regression modeling found significantly negative associations (P valueIsrael SR pose only limited role in the transmission and dissemination of FMD. This conclusion may be applicable for other endemic countries in which, similar to Israel, all livestock are vaccinated against FMD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Worldwide prevalence and risk factors for feline hyperthyroidism: A review

    OpenAIRE

    Joanne L. McLean; Remo G. Lobetti; Johan P. Schoeman

    2014-01-01

    Since first reported in the late 1970s, there has been a steady but dramatic increase in the worldwide prevalence of hyperthyroidism in cats. It is now regarded as the most common feline endocrine disorder, with diabetes mellitus coming a close second. Not only is there evidence for an increased worldwide prevalence of feline hyperthyroidism, but also for geographical variation in the prevalence of the disease. Despite its frequency, the underlying cause(s) of this common disease is or are no...

  17. Estimates of Incidence and Prevalence of Visual Impairment, Low Vision, and Blindness in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Tiffany; Friedman, David S; Bradley, Chris; Massof, Robert

    2018-01-01

    Updated estimates of the prevalence and incidence rates of low vision and blindness are needed to inform policy makers and develop plans to meet the future demands for low vision rehabilitation services. To provide updated estimates of the incidence and prevalence of low vision and blindness in the United States. Visual acuity measurements as a function of age from the 2007-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with representation of racial and ethnic groups, were used to estimate the prevalence and incidence of visual impairments. Data from 6016 survey participants, ranging in age from younger than 18 years to older than 45 years, were obtained to estimate prevalence rates for different age groups. Incidence and prevalence rates of low vision (best-corrected visual acuity [BCVA] in the better-seeing eye of United States were estimated, using the 2010 US census data by age, from the rate models applied to the census projections for 2017, 2030, and 2050. Data were collected from November 1, 2007, to October 31, 2008. Data analysis took place from March 31, 2016, to March 19, 2017. Prevalence and incidence rates of low vision and blindness in the United States. Of the 6016 people in the study, 1714 (28.4%) were younger than 18 years of age, 2358 (39.1%) were 18 to 44 years of age, and 1944 (32.3%) were 45 years of age or older. There were 2888 male (48%) and 3128 female (52%) participants. The prevalence of low vision and blindness for older adults (≥45 years) in the United States in 2017 is estimated to be 3 894 406 persons (95% CI, 3 034 442-4 862 549 persons) with a BCVA less than 20/40, 1 483 703 persons (95% CI, 968 656-2 370 513 persons) with a BCVA less than 20/60, and 1 082 790 persons (95% CI, 637 771-1 741 864 persons) with a BCVA of 20/200 or less. The estimated 2017 annual incidence (projected from 2010 census data) of low vision and blindness among older adults (≥45 years) in the United States is 481

  18. Chronic kidney disease in Spain: Prevalence and impact of accumulation of cardiovascular risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorostidi, Manuel; Sánchez-Martínez, Mercedes; Ruilope, Luis M; Graciani, Auxiliadora; de la Cruz, Juan J; Santamaría, Rafael; Del Pino, María D; Guallar-Castillón, Pilar; de Álvaro, Fernando; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Banegas, José R

    2018-06-15

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a public health problem worldwide. We aimed to estimate the CKD prevalence in Spain and to examine the impact of the accumulation of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF). We performed a nationwide, population-based survey evaluating 11,505 individuals representative of the Spanish adult population. Information was collected through standardised questionnaires, physical examination, and analysis of blood and urine samples in a central laboratory. CKD was graded according to current KDIGO definitions. The relationship between CKD and 10CVRF was assessed (age, hypertension, general obesity, abdominal obesity, smoking, high LDL-cholesterol, low HDL-cholesterol, hypertriglyceridaemia, diabetes and sedentary lifestyle). Prevalence of CKD was 15.1% (95%CI: 14.3-16.0%). CKD was more common in men (23.1% vs 7.3% in women), increased with age (4.8% in 18-44 age group, 17.4% in 45-64 age group, and 37.3% in ≥65), and was more common in those with than those without cardiovascular disease (39.8% vs 14.6%); all P<.001. CKD affected 4.5% of subjects with 0-1CVRF, and then progressively increased from 10.4% to 52.3% in subjects with 2 to 8-10CVRF (P trend <.001). CKD affects one in seven adults in Spain. The prevalence is higher than previously reported and similar to that in the United States. CKD was particularly prevalent in men, older people and people with cardiovascular disease. Prevalence of CKD increased considerably with the accumulation of CVRF, suggesting that CKD could be considered as a cardiovascular condition. Copyright © 2018 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  19. Prevalence of Risk for Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome and Association With Risk Factors in Primary Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenia Vieira da Silva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS is a chronic, progressive disease with high morbidity and mortality. It is underdiagnosed, especially among women. Objective: To study the prevalence of high risk for OSAS globally and for the Berlin Questionnaire (BQ categories, and to evaluate the reliability of the BQ use in the population studied. Methods: Observational, cross-sectional study with individuals from the Niterói Family Doctor Program, randomly selected, aged between 45 and 99 years. The visits occurred between August/2011 and December/2012. Variables associated with each BQ category and with high risk for OSAS (global were included in logistic regression models (p < 0.05. Results: Of the total (616, 403 individuals (65.4% reported snoring. The prevalence of high risk for OSA was 42.4%, being 49.7% for category I, 10.2% for category II and 77.6% for category III. Conclusion: BQ showed an acceptable reliability after excluding the questions Has anyone noticed that you stop breathing during your sleep? and Have you ever dozed off or fallen asleep while driving?. This should be tested in further studies with samples mostly comprised of women and low educational level individuals. Given the burden of OSAS-related diseases and risks, studies should be conducted to validate new tools and to adapt BQ to better screen OSAS.

  20. Estimating incidence from prevalence in generalised HIV epidemics: methods and validation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy B Hallett

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available HIV surveillance of generalised epidemics in Africa primarily relies on prevalence at antenatal clinics, but estimates of incidence in the general population would be more useful. Repeated cross-sectional measures of HIV prevalence are now becoming available for general populations in many countries, and we aim to develop and validate methods that use these data to estimate HIV incidence.Two methods were developed that decompose observed changes in prevalence between two serosurveys into the contributions of new infections and mortality. Method 1 uses cohort mortality rates, and method 2 uses information on survival after infection. The performance of these two methods was assessed using simulated data from a mathematical model and actual data from three community-based cohort studies in Africa. Comparison with simulated data indicated that these methods can accurately estimates incidence rates and changes in incidence in a variety of epidemic conditions. Method 1 is simple to implement but relies on locally appropriate mortality data, whilst method 2 can make use of the same survival distribution in a wide range of scenarios. The estimates from both methods are within the 95% confidence intervals of almost all actual measurements of HIV incidence in adults and young people, and the patterns of incidence over age are correctly captured.It is possible to estimate incidence from cross-sectional prevalence data with sufficient accuracy to monitor the HIV epidemic. Although these methods will theoretically work in any context, we have able to test them only in southern and eastern Africa, where HIV epidemics are mature and generalised. The choice of method will depend on the local availability of HIV mortality data.

  1. An interim UK response to revised risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaver, P.F.; Bines, W.P.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the legal framework in place when the revised risk estimates were announced by the International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1987 and how an addition to that framework enabled the revised risk estimates to be taken into account when making decisions about radiation protection practice both at plant and individual worker level. It is suggested that this a may be an early example of the use of a constraint applied generically. (author)

  2. Prevalence and risk of violence against people with and without disabilities: findings from an Australian population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krnjacki, Lauren; Emerson, Eric; Llewellyn, Gwynnyth; Kavanagh, Anne M

    2016-02-01

    There are no population-based estimates of the prevalence of interpersonal violence among people with disabilities in Australia. The project aimed to: 1) estimate the prevalence of violence for men and women according to disability status; 2) compare the risk of violence among women and men with disabilities to their same-sex non-disabled counterparts and; 3) compare the risk of violence between women and men with disabilities. We analysed the 2012 Australian Bureau of Statistics Survey on Personal Safety of more than 17,000 adults and estimated the population-weighted prevalence of violence (physical, sexual and intimate partner violence and stalking/harassment) in the past 12 months and since the age of 15. Population-weighted, age-adjusted, logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of violence by disability status and gender. People with disabilities were significantly more likely to experience all types of violence, both in the past 12 months and since the age of 15. Women with disabilities were more likely to experience sexual and partner violence and men were more likely to experience physical violence. These results underscore the need to understand risk factors for violence, raise awareness about violence and to target policies and services to reduce violence against people with disabilities in Australia. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

  3. Accidental hypothermia in Poland – estimation of prevalence, diagnostic methods and treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosiński, Sylweriusz; Darocha, Tomasz; Gałązkowski, Robert; Drwiła, Rafał

    2015-02-06

    The incidence of hypothermia is difficult to evaluate, and the data concerning the morbidity and mortality rates do not seem to fully represent the problem. The aim of the study was to estimate the actual prevalence of accidental hypothermia in Poland, as well as the methods of diagnosis and management procedures used in emergency rooms (ERs). A specially designed questionnaire, consisting of 14 questions, was mailed to all the 223 emergency rooms (ER) in Poland. The questions concerned the incidence, methods of diagnosis and risk factors, as well as the rewarming methods used and available measurement instruments. The analysis involved data from 42 ERs providing emergency healthcare for the population of 5,305,000. The prevalence of accidental hypothermia may have been 5.05 cases per 100.000 residents per year. Among the 268 cases listed 25% were diagnosed with codes T68, T69 or X31, and in 75% hypothermia was neither included nor assigned a code in the final diagnosis. The most frequent cause of hypothermia was exposure to cold air alongside ethanol abuse (68%). Peripheral temperature was measured in 57%, core temperature measurement was taken in 29% of the patients. Peripheral temperature was measured most often at the axilla, while core temperature measurement was predominantly taken rectally. Mild hypothermia was diagnosed in 75.5% of the patients, moderate (32-28°C) in 16.5%, while severe hypothermia (less than 28°C) in 8% of the cases. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation was carried out in 7.5% of the patients. The treatment involved mainly warmed intravenous fluids (83.5%) and active external rewarming measures (70%). In no case was extracorporeal rewarming put to use. The actual incidence of accidental hypothermia in Polish emergency departments may exceed up to four times the official data. Core temperature is taken only in one third of the patients, the treatment of hypothermic patients is rarely conducted in intensive care wards and extracorporeal rewarming

  4. ICRP risk estimates - an alternative view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, K.Z.

    1987-01-01

    This criticism of the worth of the ICRP Main Commission spans 60 years, reviewed by a member of the Commission. Beginning in 1960 two serious radiation exposure problems (occupational exposure in uranium mines and population exposure from testing of nuclear weapons) came to their attention. One might have expected ICRP to be the first to try to reduce these exposures but it was conspicuous by its silence. In 1958 ICRP set limits of exposure for radiation workers and member of the public. Nineteen years later (1977) when it was realized that the risk of radiation induced cancer was ten to thirty times what it was perceived to be in 1958, ICRP might have been expected to recommend a major reduction in permissible exposure levels, but to the dismay of some it increased them. It was also a great disappointment when in 1977, levels of MPC of radionuclides in air, water and food were increased for a large fraction of the more dangerous radionuclides. The reactor accident at Chernobyl calls for a number of new ICRP recommendations. When can we expect them? (author)

  5. Multifactorial diseases and risk estimations: special reference of mutation component

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasuda, Norikazu

    1995-01-01

    Genetic effects of radiation in man have been tractable such aspects as genes, chromosomes, genomes, individuals and populations. In spite of enormous interest from an academic view point on the mechanism studies, it is rather a little study on incidence or prevalence of genetic diseases as hereditary effects when human population in general have been exposed by radiation. Such studies are valuable for radiation protection as well as radiation public health. In this review, I have attempted to reconcile some fragments evidences to derive an important conclusion: the hereditary effects of radiation could not be detected from examination of disease incidence (or prevalence) for the genetic risk. (J.P.N.)

  6. A Spanish multicenter study to estimate the prevalence and incidence of chronic pancreatitis and its complications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Enrique Domínguez-Muñoz

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective: No nation-wide epidemiological study on the incidence and prevalence of chronic pancreatitis (CP had been thus far carried out in Spain. Our goal is to estimate the prevalence and incidence of CP, as well as to determine the diagnostic and therapeutic criteria used in Spanish pancreas units. Methods: An observarional, descriptive study of hospital pancreas units in Spain. CP-related epidemiology, etiology, manifestations, diagnostic tests, functional complications, and treatments were all assessed using a structured questionnaire. Overall results were estimated by weighting cases in each site. Results: Information was collected from six pancreas units with a sample frame of 1,900,751 inhabitants. Overall prevalence was 49.3 cases per 10(5 population (95 % CI, 46 to 52 and incidence was 5.5 cases per 10(5 inhabitant-years (95 % CI, 5.4 to 5.6. Most common etiologies included tobacco and alcoholism, which were associated with three in every four cases. The most prevalent symptoms were recurring pain (48.8 % and chronic abdominal pain (30.6 %. The most widely used diagnostic method was echoendoscopy (79.8 %, CT (computerized tomography (58.7 %, and MRI (magnetic resonance imaging/MRCP (magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (55.9 %. Most prevalent morphologic findings included calcifications (35 % and pseudocysts (27 %. Exocrine (38.8 % and endocrine (35.2 % pancreatic insufficiency had both a similar frequency. Treatments used were rather heterogeneous among sites, with enzyme replacement therapy (40.7 % and insulin (30.9 % being most commonly used. Conclusions: Pancreas units amass a significant number of both prevalent and incident CP cases. Patients seen in these units share a similar typology, and differences between units are greater regarding diagnostic and therapeutic strategies.

  7. Prevalence of Elevated Cardiovascular Risks in Young Adults: A Cross-sectional Analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Krishna K; Taksler, Glen B; Hu, Bo; Rothberg, Michael B

    2017-06-20

    The 2013 cholesterol management guidelines from the American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) recommend lipid screening in all adults older than 20 years to identify those at increased risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Statins may be considered for patients with elevated 10-year risk (>5%) or a low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level of 4.92 mmol/L (190 mg/dL) or greater. To describe the prevalence of elevated ASCVD risk among nondiabetic adults younger than 50 years. Cross-sectional. NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), 1999 to 2000 through 2011 to 2012. Adults aged 30 to 49 years without known ASCVD or diabetes. 10-year ASCVD risk was estimated by using the 2013 ACC/AHA ASCVD risk calculator. Participants were subdivided by age, sex, and history of smoking and hypertension. The percentages of adults in each subgroup with a 10-year ASCVD risk greater than 5% and of those with an LDL-C level of 4.92 mmol/L (190 mg/dL) or greater were estimated. Low-prevalence subgroups were defined as those in which a greater than 1% prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk could be ruled out (that is, the upper 95% confidence bound for prevalence was ≤1%). Overall, 9608 NHANES participants representing 67.9 million adults were included, with approximately half (47.12%, representing 32 million adults) in low-prevalence subgroups. In the absence of smoking or hypertension, 0.09% (95% CI, 0.02% to 0.35%) of adult men younger than 40 years and 0.04% (CI, 0.0% to 0.26%) of adult women younger than 50 years had an elevated risk. Among other subgroups, 0% to 75.9% of participants had an increased risk. Overall, 2.9% (CI, 2.3% to 3.5%) had an LDL-C level of 4.92 mmol/L (190 mg/dL) or greater. No information was available regarding cardiovascular outcomes. In the absence of risk factors, the prevalence of increased ASCVD risk is low among women younger than 50 and men younger than 40 years. None.

  8. Prevalence and risk factors of urinary incontinence among Chinese women in Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Wang, Lei; Huang, Sheng-Song; Wu, Qiang; Wu, Deng-Long

    2014-01-01

    A group of healthy females were randomly sampled in Shanghai for the purpose of evaluating the prevalence of urinary incontinence (UI) among Chinese women and its associated risk factors. 5,467 registered female residents aged from 20 years were randomly sampled from four communities in Shanghai, and the Bristol Female Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms Questionnaire (the International Consultation Incontinence Questionnaire) was adopted. Detailed information regarding pregnancy, menstruation, and several demographic variables was also collected. Data were subsequently analyzed using McNemar's test, univariate analysis, multinomial logistic regression models, and binary logistic regression models. The prevalence rate of UI was estimated to be 23.3%. The rate of stress UI (SUI) was 14.0% (761/5433), which was more prevalent than the rate of urgency UI (UUI) and mixed UI (MUI), which were 3.0% (164/5433) and 6.3% (341/5433), respectively. The risk factors associated with developing UI included aging, lack of education, poor living environment (specifically in the rural area), intense manual labor, the absence of physical exercise, hyperlipemia, diabetes, nocturia, consumption of greasy food, divorce or widowing, chronic pelvic pain (CPP), pelvic organ prolapse (POP), frequent urinary tract infection, and vaginal delivery without episiotomy. We also observed that most Chinese women were not aware of UI, which prevented them from seeking early treatment. Urinary incontinence is a common disorder among Chinese women in Shanghai, and many risk factors contribute to the development of UI. Most Chinese women were not aware of UI, which prevented them from seeking early treatment.

  9. Social anxiety disorder in Saudi adolescent boys: Prevalence, subtypes, and parenting style as a risk factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaafar Y Ghazwani

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Available information on social anxiety disorder (SAD in adolescents in Saudi Arabia is limited. The objective of the study was to estimate the prevalence, severity, and subtypes of SAD, and parenting style risk factors associated with SAD in the adolescent. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in two secondary schools for boys in Abha, Saudi Arabia during the Academic year 2013. To collect the data, a questionnaire eliciting information on background characteristics and parenting style as well as the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale Test (LSAS, for the evaluation of SAD, were used. Results: A total of 454 students participated in the study. The age of the participants ranged between 15 and 20 years with a mean of 17.4 years. The prevalence of SAD was 11.7%. Around 36% and 11.4% of the students respectively had severe and more severe forms of SAD. Parenting style such as parental anger, criticism particularly in front of others, exaggerated protection, maltreatment and family provocation emerged as a significant risk factor for SAD. The independent predictors of SAD were a parental provocation and physical or emotional maltreatment by the parent (odds ratio [OR] = 3.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.90-8.31 and OR = 2.67, 95% CI: 3.17-5.19, respectively. Conclusion: The prevalence of SAD in secondary school students at Abha is high. Parenting style risk factors for SAD are modifiable. In this context, a national program to improve mental health in this age group is crucial.

  10. Prevalence and risk factors associated with retinopathy in diabetic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Diabetic retinopathy is the fifth leading cause of blindness worldwide accounting for nearly 5% of all blindness. However, most of the prevalence and incidence data is from developed countries, with very limited information from sub-Saharan Africa. The study sought to determine the prevalence of, and factors associated ...

  11. Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

    2017-08-01

    Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Population prevalence and control of cardiovascular risk factors: what electronic medical records tell us.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalán-Ramos, Arantxa; Verdú, Jose M; Grau, María; Iglesias-Rodal, Manuel; del Val García, José L; Consola, Alicia; Comin, Eva

    2014-01-01

    To analyze the prevalence, control, and management of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2). Cross-sectional analysis of all individuals attended in the Catalan primary care centers between 2006 and 2009. History of cardiovascular diseases, diagnosis and treatment of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, DM2, lipid profile, glycemia and blood pressure data were extracted from electronic medical records. Age-standardized prevalence and levels of management and control were estimated. Individuals aged 35-74 years using primary care databases. A total of 2,174,515 individuals were included (mean age 52 years [SD 11], 47% men). Hypertension was the most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor (39% in women, 41% in men) followed by hypercholesterolemia (38% and 40%) and DM2 (12% and 16%), respectively. Diuretics and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors were most often prescribed for hypertension control (women treated). Hypercholesterolemia was controlled (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol women with no history of cardiovascular disease, despite lipid-lowering treatment, primarily (90%) with statins. The percentage of women and men with DM2 and with glycated hemoglobin DM2 were adequately controlled; hypercholesterolemia control was particularly low. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  13. [Post-partum depressive symptoms: Prevalence, risk factors and relationship with quality of life].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherif, R; Feki, I; Gassara, H; Baati, I; Sellami, R; Feki, H; Chaabene, K; Masmoudi, J

    2017-10-01

    The objective of our study was to estimate the prevalence of the post-partum depressive symptomatology in a sample of Tunisian women, to study associated factors and to assess its relationship to quality of life. This is a prospective study carried out in two stages: during the first week (T1), then between sixth and eighth week post-partum (T2). Depressive symptomatology and quality of life were assessed respectively by the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and the World Health Organization Quality of Life scale. In the first stage, the prevalence of depressive symptomatology in the total sample (150 women) was 14.7% and was related to age above 35 years, low school level, personal psychiatric history, multiparity, caesarean delivery or forceps in the previous pregnancy and unplanned pregnancy. This prevalence was 19.8% among the 126 women reviewed in T2 and was correlated with the exaggerated sympathetic signs during pregnancy, namely perversion of taste and fatigue. Quality of life was strongly correlated with depressive symptoms in T1 and T2. Post-partum depressive symptoms were common in our sample and were correlated with quality of life. Therapeutic measures should be proposed for women with post-partum depressive symptoms and particularly with several risk factors in order to improve their quality of life. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  14. Helicobacter pylori-Negative Gastritis: Prevalence and Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordenstedt, Helena; Graham, David Y.; Kramer, Jennifer R.; Rugge, Massimo; Verstovsek, Gordana; Fitzgerald, Stephanie; Alsarraj, Abeer; Shaib, Yasser; Velez, Maria E.; Abraham, Neena; Anand, Bhupinderjit; Cole, Rhonda; El-Serag, Hashem B.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES Recent studies using histology alone in select patients have suggested that Helicobacter pylori-negative gastritis may be common. The objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of H. pylori among individuals with histologic gastritis. METHODS Subjects between 40 and 80 years underwent elective esophagogastroduodenoscopy at a VA Medical Center. Gastric biopsies were mapped from seven prespecified sites (two antrum, four corpus, and one cardia) and graded by two gastrointestinal pathologists, using the Updated Sydney System. H. pylori-negative required four criteria: negative triple staining at all seven gastric sites, negative H. pylori culture, negative IgG H. pylori serology, and no previous treatment for H. pylori. Data regarding tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug, and proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use were obtained by questionnaire. RESULTS Of the 491 individuals enrolled, 40.7% (200) had gastritis of at least grade 2 in at least one biopsy site or grade 1 in at least two sites. Forty-one (20.5%) had H. pylori-negative gastritis; most (30 or 73.2%) had chronic gastritis, five (12.2%) had active gastritis, and six (14.6%) had both. H. pylori-negative gastritis was approximately equally distributed in the antrum, corpus, and both antrum and corpus. Past and current PPI use was more frequent in H. pylori-negative vs. H. pylori-positive gastritis (68.2% and 53.8%; P = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS We used multiple methods to define non-H. pylori gastritis and found it in 21% of patients with histologic gastritis. While PPI use is a potential risk factor, the cause or implications of this entity are not known. PMID:23147524

  15. Prevalence and risk factors for infantile colic in District Mansehra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fazil, M.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Infantile colic is a common problem among infants age 3 days to 3 months. It may affect parental feelings negatively and the parents may undertake all kinds of actions to stop excessive crying. The objective of this study was to assess the incidence of infantile colic and its risk factors in infants born in District Mansehra. Methods: In this prospective study, all those newborn babies were included who were born at King Abdullah Teaching Hospital Mansehra between January 1 2008 and March 31, 2008, and those newborn babies who were brought to children OPD for routine check-up and EPI centre for vaccination of this hospital during this time period. For every infant, gender, mode of delivery, gestational age at birth, birth weight, birth order, and mother's reproductive history were collected. These babies were seen at least once in a week up to 12 weeks and history from the mothers about the duration of crying and fussiness behaviour was recorded. At the end of 3 months the infants were again assessed and additional information on infant nutritional source was obtained and any medication used for colic relief was identified. Cases of colic were identified by applying Wessel criteria to recorded data. Chi-square tests were used. Results: From total 512 infants, follow-up was completed for 426 infants. In total, 90 infants (21.77%) satisfied the Wessel criteria for infantile colic. No statistical significance was found between colicky and non-colicky infants according to sex, gestational age at birth, birth weight, type of delivery, and, infant's feeding pattern. However, firstborn infants had higher rate for developing colic (p=0.03). Conclusion: Prevalence of colic was 21.77% in this infant population of District Mansehra. Except for birth order, no other variable was significantly associated with infantile colic. (author)

  16. Helicobacter pylori-negative gastritis: prevalence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordenstedt, Helena; Graham, David Y; Kramer, Jennifer R; Rugge, Massimo; Verstovsek, Gordana; Fitzgerald, Stephanie; Alsarraj, Abeer; Shaib, Yasser; Velez, Maria E; Abraham, Neena; Anand, Bhupinderjit; Cole, Rhonda; El-Serag, Hashem B

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies using histology alone in select patients have suggested that Helicobacter pylori-negative gastritis may be common. The objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of H. pylori among individuals with histologic gastritis. Subjects between 40 and 80 years underwent elective esophagogastroduodenoscopy at a VA Medical Center. Gastric biopsies were mapped from seven prespecified sites (two antrum, four corpus, and one cardia) and graded by two gastrointestinal pathologists, using the Updated Sydney System. H. pylori-negative required four criteria: negative triple staining at all seven gastric sites, negative H. pylori culture, negative IgG H. pylori serology, and no previous treatment for H. pylori. Data regarding tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug, and proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use were obtained by questionnaire. Of the 491 individuals enrolled, 40.7% (200) had gastritis of at least grade 2 in at least one biopsy site or grade 1 in at least two sites. Forty-one (20.5%) had H. pylori-negative gastritis; most (30 or 73.2%) had chronic gastritis, five (12.2%) had active gastritis, and six (14.6%) had both. H. pylori-negative gastritis was approximately equally distributed in the antrum, corpus, and both antrum and corpus. Past and current PPI use was more frequent in H. pylori-negative vs. H. pylori-positive gastritis (68.2% and 53.8%; P=0.06). We used multiple methods to define non-H. pylori gastritis and found it in 21% of patients with histologic gastritis. While PPI use is a potential risk factor, the cause or implications of this entity are not known.

  17. Family caregiver mistreatment of the elderly: prevalence of risk and associated factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orfila, Francesc; Coma-Solé, Montserrat; Cabanas, Marta; Cegri-Lombardo, Francisco; Moleras-Serra, Anna; Pujol-Ribera, Enriqueta

    2018-01-22

    The detection of elder mistreatment is emerging as a public health priority; however, abusive behaviors exercised by caregivers are little known and rarely detected among primary health care professionals. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of risk of abuse against community-residing elderly with moderate to severe dependency whose caregivers are relatives. In addition, we aim to describe the association between such a risk and socio-demographic variables, cognitive and dependency state of the victim, and the scale of the caregiver's anxiety, depression, and burden. Cross-sectional study developed in 72 Primary Health Care teams from Barcelona, Spain. Participants were caregivers and their dependent care recipients (N = 829). Home interviews included the Caregiver Abuse Screen (CASE); self-reported abuse from care recipient; activities of daily living and cognitive state of the care recipient; anxiety and depression in caregivers and Caregiver Burden Scale. The relationship prior to the dependency, positive aspects of caregiving, and social support for the caregiver were also assessed. Multivariate analysis was performed using logistic regression with risk of abuse as dependent variable. Caregivers were mainly women (82.8%) with a mean age of 63.3 years. Caregivers and care recipients lived in the same household in 87.4% of cases, and 86.6% had enjoyed a good previous relationship. Care recipients were women (65.6%), with a mean age of 84.2 years, and 64.2% had moderate to severe cognitive impairment. CASE demonstrated a prevalence of 33.4% (95% CI: 30.3-36.7) of abuse risk by the caregiver. Logistic regression showed as statistically significant: caregiver burden (OR = 2.75; 95% CI: 1.74-4.33), caregiver anxiety (OR = 2.06; 95% CI: 1.40-3.02), caregiver perception of aggressive behavior in the care recipient (OR = 7.24; 95% CI: 4.99-10.51), and a bad previous relationship (OR = 4.66; 95% CI: 1.25-17.4). Prevalence of risk of abuse is

  18. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  19. Interpolation between spatial frameworks: an application of process convolution to estimating neighbourhood disease prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-04-01

    Health data may be collected across one spatial framework (e.g. health provider agencies), but contrasts in health over another spatial framework (neighbourhoods) may be of policy interest. In the UK, population prevalence totals for chronic diseases are provided for populations served by general practitioner practices, but not for neighbourhoods (small areas of circa 1500 people), raising the question whether data for one framework can be used to provide spatially interpolated estimates of disease prevalence for the other. A discrete process convolution is applied to this end and has advantages when there are a relatively large number of area units in one or other framework. Additionally, the interpolation is modified to take account of the observed neighbourhood indicators (e.g. hospitalisation rates) of neighbourhood disease prevalence. These are reflective indicators of neighbourhood prevalence viewed as a latent construct. An illustrative application is to prevalence of psychosis in northeast London, containing 190 general practitioner practices and 562 neighbourhoods, including an assessment of sensitivity to kernel choice (e.g. normal vs exponential). This application illustrates how a zero-inflated Poisson can be used as the likelihood model for a reflective indicator.

  20. HIV, STI prevalence and risk behaviours among women selling sex in Lahore, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaman Shakila

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background More than 340 million cases of curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs were estimated to have occurred worldwide in 1995. Previous studies have shown that the presence of other concomitant STIs increases the likelihood of HIV transmission. The first national study of STIs conducted in Pakistan in 2004 revealed a high burden of STIs among women selling sex. The HIV epidemic in Pakistan has thus far followed the "Asian epidemic model". Earlier studies among women selling sex have shown a low prevalence of HIV coupled with a low level of knowledge about AIDS. The aim of our study was to estimate the prevalence of HIV and STIs, and assess knowledge and risk behaviours related to HIV/STI, among women selling sex in Lahore, Pakistan. Methods A total of 730 participants were recruited through respondent-driven sampling. The participants were women selling sex in three areas (referred to as "A", "B", and "C" of Lahore. A structured questionnaire addressing demographic information, sexual life history, sexual contacts, and knowledge and practices related to HIV/STI prevention was administered by face-to-face interview. Biological samples were obtained from all participants and tested for HIV, Treponema pallidum, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Chlamydia trachomatis and Trichomonas vaginalis. Pearson's chi-square and multivariable logistic regression analysis were performed to test associations between potential risk factors and specified diagnosed infections. Results The prevalence of HIV infection was 0.7%, T pallidum 4.5%, N gonorrhoeae 7.5%, C trachomatis 7.7% and T vaginalis 5.1%. The participants had been selling sex for a median period of seven years and had a median of three clients per day. Sixty five percent of the participants reported that they "Always use condom". The median fee per sexual contact was Rs. 250 (3 Euro. Compared to Areas A and C, women selling sex in Area B had a significantly higher risk of chlamydial

  1. The Boehringer Ingelheim employee study (Part 2): 10-year cardiovascular diseases risk estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempf, K; Martin, S; Döhring, C; Dugi, K; Haastert, B; Schneider, M

    2016-10-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) may cause an economic burden to companies, but CVD risk estimations specific to working populations are lacking. To estimate the 10-year CVD risk in the Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) employee cohort and analyse the potential effect of hypothetical risk reduction interventions. We estimated CVD risk using the Framingham (FRS), PROCAM (PRS) and Reynolds (RRS) risk scores, using cross-sectional baseline data on BI Pharma employees collected from 2005 to 2011. Results were compared using Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon tests. The predictive ability of the score estimates was assessed using receiver-operating characteristics analyses. Among the 4005 study subjects, we estimated 10-year CVD risks of 35% (FRS), 9% (PRS) and 6% (RRS) for men and 10% (FRS), 4% (PRS) and 1% (RRS) for women. One hundred and thirty-four (6%) men and 111 (6%) women employees had current CVD. The best predictors of prevalent CVD were the FRS and the RRS for men [area-under-the-curve 0.62 (0.57-0.67) for both]. A hypothetical intervention that would improve systolic blood pressure, HbA1c (for diabetes), C-reactive protein, triglycerides and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 10% each would potentially reduce expected CVD cases by 36-41% in men and 30-45% in women, and if smoking cessation is incorporated, by 39-45% and 30-55%, respectively, depending on the pre-intervention risk score. There was a substantial risk of developing CVD in this working cohort. Occupational health programmes with lifestyle interventions for high-risk individuals may be an effective risk reduction measure. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dankar Fida

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated. The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk.

  3. Estimating prevalence of accumulated HIV-1 drug resistance in a cohort of patients on antiretroviral therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bannister, Wendy P; Cozzi-Lepri, Alessandro; Kjær, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the prevalence of accumulated HIV drug resistance in patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult due to lack of resistance testing at all occasions of virological failure and in patients with undetectable viral load. A method to estimate this for 6498 EuroSIDA patients...... who were under follow-up on ART at 1 July 2008 was therefore developed by imputing data on patients with no prior resistance test results, based on the probability of detecting resistance in tested patients with similar profiles....

  4. Ethnic disparities in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its risk factors in the Suriname Health Study: A cross-sectional population study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I.S.K. Krishnadath (Ingrid S.K.); J.R. Toelsie (Jerry R.); A. Hofman (Albert); V.W.V. Jaddoe (Vincent)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractBackground The metabolic syndrome (MetS) indicates increased risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. We estimated the overall and ethnic-specific prevalence of MetS and explored the associations of risk factors with MetS among Amerindian, Creole, Hindustani, Javanese, Maroon

  5. Prevalence and associated risk factors of chronic bronchitis in First Nations people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pahwa, Punam; Karunanayake, Chandima P; Rennie, Donna C; Lawson, Joshua A; Ramsden, Vivian R; McMullin, Kathleen; Gardipy, P Jenny; MacDonald, Judy; Abonyi, Sylvia; Episkenew, Jo-Ann; Dosman, James A

    2017-06-29

    Inadequate housing, low family income, household smoking, personal smoking status, and poor schooling are some of the conditions that have been significantly associated with the prevalence and incidence of chronic bronchitis. The aim of the current study was to determine the prevalence of chronic bronchitis (CB) and associated risk factors among First Nations people. An interviewer-administered survey was conducted as part of the First Nations Lung Health Project in 2012 and 2013 with 874 individuals from 406 households in two First Nations communities located in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada. The questionnaire collected information on individual and contextual determinants of health and a history of ever diagnosed with CB (outcome variable) from the two communities participating in the First Nations Lung Health Project. Clustering effect within households was adjusted using Generalized Estimating Equations. The prevalence of CB was 8.9% and 6.8% among residents (18 years and older) of community A and community B respectively and was not significantly different. CB prevalence was positively associated with odour or musty smell of mildew/mould in the house [OR adj (95% CI) = 2.33 (1.21, 4.50)], allergy to house dust [3.49 (1.75, 6.97)], an air conditioner in home [2.33 (1.18, 4.24)], and increasing age [0.99 (0.33, 2.95), 4.26 (1.74, 10.41), 6.08 (2.58, 14.33)]. An interaction exposure to environmental tobacco smoke in the house*body mass index showed that exposure to household smoke increased the risk of CB for overweight and obese participants (borderline). Some of the variables of interest were not significantly associated with the prevalence of CB in multivariable analysis, possibly due to small numbers. Our results suggest that significant determinants of CB were: increasing age; odour or musty smell of mildew/mould in the house; allergy to house dust; and, body mass index. Modifiable risk factors identified were: (i) community level

  6. Pre-conception counselling in primary care: Prevalence of risk factors among couples contemplating pregnancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pal van der-Bruin, K.M. de; Cessie, S. le; Elsinga, J.; Jong de-Potjer, L.C.; Haeringen, A. van; Knuistingh Neven, A.; Verloove-Vanhorick, S.P.; Assendelft, P.

    2008-01-01

    The outcome of pregnancy can be influenced by several risk factors. Women who are informed about these risks during pre-conception counselling (PCC) have an opportunity to take preventive measures in time. Several studies have shown that high-risk populations have a high prevalence of such risk

  7. Cardiovascular Disease Prevalence and Risk Factors of Persons with Mental Retardation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draheim, Christopher C.

    2006-01-01

    This paper reviews the recent literature on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevalence, CVD-related mortality, physiological CVD risk factors, and behavioral CVD risk factors in adults with mental retardation (MR). The literature on the potential influences of modifiable behavioral CVD risk factors and the physiological CVD risk factors are also…

  8. PREVALENCE AND RISK FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRRS VIRUS IN SEMEN OF BOARS IN PIG FARMS OF YUCATAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aremi Jordan-Craviotto

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of the present study were to estimate the prevalence of and to determine the risk factors associated with the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV, American strain in semen of boars in pig herds of Yucatan, Mexico. Ninety two boars from 26 herds were ejaculated once. Semen samples were processed by the RT-nPCR test using the ORF7 primer to detect the PRRS virus. The true prevalence estimated was 10.1% (95% CI = 4.1-16.1%. Significance of risk factors was determined by Fisher-exact test. The odds of detecting genetic material of the PRRSV was greater (OR = 9.2 in semen of boars used under natural mating than those used in artificial insemination. In herds where boar’s acclimatization was not practiced the odds of a positive boar was 4.3. Another risk factor (P < 0.05 was the origin of the animals. In conclusion, the prevalence of the PRRSV in boar semen was smaller to the notified in the literature and determinate in blood serum. Management practices, such as the use of the artificial insemination and acclimatization of the boar, could be useful in reducing the prevalence of the PRRS virus in the pig farms.

  9. A Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to estimate disease prevalence in hard-to-reach populations: hepatitis C in New York City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Tan

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV in New York City (NYC are limited in scope and fail to assess hard-to-reach subpopulations with highest risk such as injecting drug users (IDUs. To address these limitations, we employ a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis model to systematically combine multiple sources of data, account for bias in certain data sources, and provide unbiased HCV prevalence estimates with associated uncertainty. Our approach improves on previous estimates by explicitly accounting for injecting drug use and including data from high-risk subpopulations such as the incarcerated, and is more inclusive, utilizing ten NYC data sources. In addition, we derive two new equations to allow age at first injecting drug use data for former and current IDUs to be incorporated into the Bayesian evidence synthesis, a first for this type of model. Our estimated overall HCV prevalence as of 2012 among NYC adults aged 20–59 years is 2.78% (95% CI 2.61–2.94%, which represents between 124,900 and 140,000 chronic HCV cases. These estimates suggest that HCV prevalence in NYC is higher than previously indicated from household surveys (2.2% and the surveillance system (2.37%, and that HCV transmission is increasing among young injecting adults in NYC. An ancillary benefit from our results is an estimate of current IDUs aged 20–59 in NYC: 0.58% or 27,600 individuals. Keywords: Bayesian evidence synthesis, Disease prevalence estimation, Hard-to-reach populations, Injecting drug use, hepatitis C in New York City

  10. Potential Impact of DSM-5 Criteria on Autism Spectrum Disorder Prevalence Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maenner, Matthew J.; Rice, Catherine E.; Arneson, Carrie L.; Cunniff, Christopher; Schieve, Laura A.; Carpenter, Laura A.; Van Naarden Braun, Kim; Kirby, Russell S.; Bakian, Amanda V.; Durkin, Maureen S.

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE The DSM-5 contains revised diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) from the DSM-IV-TR. Potential impacts of the new criteria on ASD prevalence are unclear. OBJECTIVE To assess potential effects of the DSM-5 ASD criteria on ASD prevalence estimation by retrospectively applying the new criteria to population-based surveillance data collected for previous ASD prevalence estimation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Cross-sectional, population-based ASD surveillance based on clinician review of coded behaviors documented in children’s medical and educational evaluations from 14 geographically defined areas in the United States participating in the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network in 2006 and 2008. This study included 8-year-old children living in ADDM Network study areas in 2006 or 2008, including 644 883 children under surveillance, of whom 6577 met surveillance ASD case status based on the DSM-IV-TR. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Proportion of children meeting ADDM Network ASD criteria based on the DSM-IV-TR who also met DSM-5 criteria; overall prevalence of ASD using DSM-5 criteria. RESULTS Among the 6577 children classified by the ADDM Network as having ASD based on the DSM-IV-TR, 5339 (81.2%) met DSM-5 ASD criteria. This percentage was similar for boys and girls but higher for those with than without intellectual disability (86.6% and 72.5%, respectively; P DSM-5 ASD criteria but not current ADDM Network ASD case status. Based on these findings, ASD prevalence per 1000 for 2008 would have been 10.0 (95% CI, 9.6–10.3) using DSM-5 criteria compared with the reported prevalence based on DSM-IV-TR criteria of 11.3 (95% CI, 11.0–11.7). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates will likely be lower under DSM-5 than under DSM-IV-TR diagnostic criteria, although this effect could be tempered by future adaptation of diagnostic practices and documentation of behaviors to fit the new

  11. High prevalence of hypertension and its selected risk factors among adult tribal population in Central India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakma, Tapas; Kavishwar, Arvind; Sharma, Ravendra K; Rao, P Vinay

    2017-10-01

    A community based cross-sectional study was carried out to assess the prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors like salt intake, 24-h urinary sodium excretion and body mass index (BMI) among tribal population of Mandla District, Central India. A total of 3090 individuals, from 1258 house hold drawn from 33 sampled villages and 12 urban wards were studied for blood pressure measurements and clinical examination, while 414 urine samples were collected for estimation of 24-h sodium excretion. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to assess the associations of BMI, urinary sodium output and other risk factors with hypertension. Across the sample, 28.2% of males and 23.6% of females had either stage-I or stage-II hypertension. More than 8% of subjects  25 were considerably more to have high blood pressure. Salt intake is directly related to the hypertension. The prevalence of hypertension was significantly greater among those whose salt intake was more than 10 g per day. A positive association between urine sodium excretion and blood pressure was observed. The results of the present study show that the tribal population is also affected by the life style diseases at par with the non-tribal population.

  12. Medial epicondylitis in occupational settings: prevalence, incidence and associated risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descatha, Alexis; Leclerc, Annette; Chastang, Jean-François; Roquelaure, Yves

    2003-01-01

    As medial epicondylitis has not been studied alone, we investigated its links between personal and occupational factors in repetitive work, and its course. 1757 workers were examined by an occupational health physician in 1993–94. 598 of them were re-examined three years later. Prevalence was between 4 and 5%, with annual incidence estimated at 1.5%. Forceful work was a risk factor for medial epicondylitis (OR 1.95 CI [1.15–3.32]), but not exposure to repetitive work (OR 1.11, CI [0.59–2.10]). Workers with medial epicondylitis had a significantly higher prevalence of other work-related upper-limb musculoskeletal disorders (WRMD). Risk factors differed for medial and lateral epicondylitis. The prognosis for medial epicondylitis in this population was good with a three-year recovery rate at 81%. Medial epicondylitis was clearly associated with forceful work and other upper-limb WRMD, and its prognosis was good. PMID:14506342

  13. Prevalence and risk factors of bone spavin in Icelandic horses in Sweden: A radiographic field study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eksell, P.; Axelsson, M.; Brostroem, H.; Roneus, B.; Haeggstroem, J.; Carlsten, J.

    1998-01-01

    The present field study was performed to estimate the prevalence of radiographic signs of bone spavin (RSBS) and to evaluate some possible risk factors for RSBS in the Icelandic horse in Sweden. The survey included horses from 11 farms involving 379 horses, comprising 238 geldings, 125 mares and 16 stallions. Age ranged from 0 to 19 years with a mean age of 8.1 years. Horses were radiographed with a dorsolateral-plantaromedial-oblique projection of both tarsi. Information about age, gender, origin, working intensity, number of gaits and age when saddle broken were obtained by interviewing the owners. Features of each horse's conformation were obtained by measurement or inspection. Radiographic signs of bone spavin were found in 23% (n = 88) of the horses. Horses younger than 5 years did not show any RSBS and the prevalence increased from zero to 33% between 4 and 8 years of age. Using a multivariate logistic regression model increasing age and sickle hock conformation were found to be significantly associated with increased risk of RSBS. Age when saddle broken in combination with height at the withers also influenced the multivariate logistic regression model significantly

  14. Ethnic and Regional Differences in Prevalence and Correlates of Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors in Northern Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Joykrishna Sarkar, MSc; Lisa M. Lix, PhD; Sharon Bruce, PhD; T. Kue Young, MD, PhD

    2010-01-01

    IntroductionWe investigated ethnic and geographic variations in major chronic diseases and risk factors in northern Canada, an area that is undergoing rapid changes in its social, cultural, and physical environments.MethodsSelf-report data were obtained from the population-based Canadian Community Health Survey in 2000-2001 and 2005-2006 for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal respondents from the 3 regions of northern Canada: Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut. Crude prevalence estimates, a...

  15. PREVALENCE OF GDM AND THEIR RISK FACTORS IN A TERTIARY HOSPITAL- A PROSPECTIVE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ishwarya

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Detecting the evidence of gestational diabetes mellitus is a major challenge as the condition is associated with diverse range of adverse maternal and neonatal outcome. Also, women detected with gestational diabetes mellitus have an increased incidence of diabetes especially type 2 diabetes mellitus in the later life and future development of obesity and diabetes in the offspring. Studies conducted in different populations and with different methodologies consistently reported an increase in GDM prevalence. A true increase in the prevalence of GDM aside from its adverse consequences for the infant and newborn period might reflect or contribute to the ongoing pattern of increasing diabetes and obesity. 1&2 The aim of the study is to1. Validate the Diabetes in Pregnancy Study Group of India (DIPSI recommended 75 grams glucose test for the diagnosis of gestational mellitus by comparing with the WHO criteria and ADA criteria. 2. Study the prevalence of gestational diabetes in antenatal population attending Government Kilpauk Medical College Hospital. 3. Study the prevalence of following risk factors in GDM. MATERIALS AND METHODS This prospective study was conducted in 350 antenatal women of 24-28 weeks gestational age who attended antenatal clinic in Government Kilpauk Medical College Hospital, Chennai. This study was done after getting clearance from ethical committee of Government Kilpauk Medical College Hospital. RESULTS Incidence of GDM was 4%. DIPSI criteria had a diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of 98.86%, 100% and 98.82%. WHO criteria had a diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of 99.43%, 100% and 99.41%. In both, the negative predictive value was 100%. From binary logistic regression, the associated risk factors were previous history of GDM, polyhydramnios and recurrent pregnancy loss evolved as significant risk factors. Polyhydramnios has an odds ratio of 13, previous history of GDM has an odds ratio of

  16. Prevalence and risk factors of coronary heart disease in a rural population of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Abu Sayeed

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Coronary heart disease (CHD is a major global health problem with the majority of burden observed increasingly in the developing countries. There has been no estimate of CHD in Bangladesh. This study addresses the prevalence of CHD in a Bangladeshi rural population which also aimed to determine the risk factors related to CHD. Ten villages of Nandail sub-district under Mymensingh were selected purposively. All subjects of age ³20y were considered eligible and were interviewed about family income, family history of T2DM, CHD and HTN. The investigations included height, weight, waist-girth, hip-girth, systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP & DBP, fasting blood glucose (FBG, triglycerides (TG, cholesterol (Chol and high density lipoprotein (HDL. Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c and albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR were also estimated. Finally, electrocardiography (ECG was undertaken in all participants who had family history of diabetes or hypertension or CHD. Diagnosis of CHD was based on history of angina or changes in ECG or diagnosed by a cardiologist. A total of 6235 subjects were enlisted as eligible (age ³20y participants. Of them, 4141 (m / f: 1749 / 2392 subjects volunteered for the study. The age-adjusted (20-69y prevalence of CHD was 1.85 with 95% CI, 1.42 – 2.28. There was no significant difference between men and women. The mean (SD values of age (p<0.001, SBP (p<0.01, DBP (p<0.05, HbA1c (p<0.05 and ACR (p<0.01 were significantly higher among subjects with CHD than those without; whereas, there were no significant differences in BMI and WHR, TG, Chol and HDL. Logistic regression analysis showed that adjusted for age, sex, social class and obesity, the subjects with higher age (³45y, higher 2hBG (³7.0mmol/l, higher ACR (³17.2 and family history of CHD had significant risk for CHD. The prevalence of CHD is comparable with other Asian population. Family history of CHD and age over 45 years, and who had hyperglycemia and higher ACR were

  17. Prevalence and risk factors of anemia in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristie Regine Klotz Zuffo

    2016-07-01

    Conclusions: In terms of public health, the prevalence of anemia is characterized as a moderate problem in the studied population and demonstrates the need for coordination of interdisciplinary actions for its reduction in CMEI nurseries.

  18. Prevalence and Risk Factors for Brucellosis in Jazan Province ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    this study was to determine the sero-prevalence of brucellosis in Jazan Province, Saudi Arabia and assess the ... Conclusion: These results indicate the need for a vaccination program in Jazan Province and for public .... from blue to yellow.

  19. The prevalence of hypertension and its modifiable risk factors ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-10-06

    Oct 6, 2011 ... Conclusion: The prevalence of hypertension among the lecturers in the medical school was lower than that in the general .... pressures that serve as the blood pressure of the subject. The subjects were ..... Secondary. 25. 17.7.

  20. prevalence and risk factors for vaginal candidiasis among women

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    hi-tech

    2005-03-01

    Mar 1, 2005 ... Conculsion: The high prevalence of vaginal candidiasis among women with genital infections ... complaints of either abnormal vaginal discharge, lower abdominal or pelvic ..... is in keeping with the reports in literature (8). The.

  1. Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

  2. Prevalence of risk factors for HIV infection among Mexican migrants and immigrants: probability survey in the north border of Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gudelia Rangel M.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of risk factors for HIV infection among Mexican migrants and immigrants (MMIs in different geographic contexts, including the sending communities in Mexico, the receiving communities in the United States (US, and the Mexican North border region. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We conducted a probability survey among MMIs traveling through key border crossing sites in the Tijuana (Baja California, Mexico-San Diego (California, US border region (N=1 429. RESULTS: The survey revealed substantial rates of reported sexually transmitted infections, needle-sharing and sexual risk practices in all migration contexts. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated levels of HIV risk call for further binational research and preventive interventions in all key geographic contexts of the migration experience to identify and tackle the different personal, environmental, and structural determinants of HIV risk in each of these contexts.

  3. Estimating cancer risks to adults undergoing body CT examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huda, W.; He, W.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the study is to estimate cancer risks from the amount of radiation used to perform body computed tomography (CT) examination. The ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator was used to compute values of organ doses for adult body CT examinations. The radiation used to perform each examination was quantified by the dose-length product (DLP). Patient organ doses were converted into corresponding age and sex dependent cancer risks using data from BEIR VII. Results are presented for cancer risks per unit DLP and unit effective dose for 11 sensitive organs, as well as estimates of the contribution from 'other organs'. For patients who differ from a standard sized adult, correction factors based on the patient weight and antero-posterior dimension are provided to adjust organ doses and the corresponding risks. At constant incident radiation intensity, for CT examinations that include the chest, risks for females are markedly higher than those for males, whereas for examinations that include the pelvis, risks in males were slightly higher than those in females. In abdominal CT scans, risks for males and female patients are very similar. For abdominal CT scans, increasing the patient age from 20 to 80 resulted in a reduction in patient risks of nearly a factor of 5. The average cancer risk for chest/abdomen/pelvis CT examinations was ∼26 % higher than the cancer risk caused by 'sensitive organs'. Doses and radiation risks in 80 kg adults were ∼10 % lower than those in 70 kg patients. Cancer risks in body CT can be estimated from the examination DLP by accounting for sex, age, as well as patient physical characteristics. (authors)

  4. Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pere P Simarro

    Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

  5. Androgenetic alopecia in men aged 40-69 years: prevalence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severi, G; Sinclair, R; Hopper, J L; English, D R; McCredie, M R E; Boyle, P; Giles, G G

    2003-12-01

    The epidemiology of androgenetic alopecia (AGA) is not fully understood. Although a strong genetic basis has long been identified, little is known of its non-genetic causes. To estimate the prevalence of and to determine risk factors for AGA in men aged 40-69 years in Australia. Men (n = 1390) were recruited at random from the electoral rolls to serve as controls in a population-based case-control study of prostate cancer. All were interviewed in person and direct observations of AGA were made. Men were grouped into the following categories; no AGA, frontal AGA, vertex AGA and full AGA (frontal and vertex AGA). Epidemiological data collected from these men were used for an analysis of risk factors for each AGA category using unconditional logistic regression with AGA category as the response variable adjusting for age, education and country of birth. The prevalence of vertex and full AGA increased with age from 31% (age 40-55 years) to 53% (age 65-69 years). Conversely, the proportion of men with only frontal AGA was very similar across all age groups (31-33%). No associations were found between pubertal growth spurt or acne, reports of adult body size at time of interview, urinary symptom score, marital status, or current smoking status or duration of smoking and the risk of any form of AGA. The consumption of alcohol was associated with a significant increase in risk of frontal and vertex AGA but not full AGA. Men with vertex AGA had fewer female sexual partners but average ejaculatory frequency did not differ between men in different AGA categories. Reported weight and lean body mass at reaching maturity at about 21 years of age were negatively associated with vertex balding (P for trend body mass at age 21 years would be worthy of further research if they were able to be replicated in other studies.

  6. Hepatitis B virus in Pakistan: a systematic review of prevalence, risk factors, awareness status and genotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Muhammad; Idrees, Muhammad; Ali, Liaqat; Hussain, Abrar; Ur Rehman, Irshad; Saleem, Sana; Afzal, Samia; Butt, Sadia

    2011-03-06

    In Pakistan, there are estimated 7-9 million carriers of hepatitis B virus (HBV) with a carrier rate of 3-5%. This article reviews the available literature about the prevalence, risk factors, awareness status and genotypes of the HBV in Pakistan by using key words; HBV prevalence, risk factors, awareness status and genotypes in Pakistani population in PubMed, PakMediNet, Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ) and Google Scholar. One hundred and six different studies published from 1998 to 2010 were included in this study. Weighted mean and standard deviation were determined for each population group. The percentage of hepatitis B virus infection in general population was 4.3318% ± 1.644%, healthy blood donors (3.93% ± 1.58%), military recruits (4.276% ± 1.646%), healthcare persons (3.25% ± 1.202%), pregnant women (5.872% ± 4.984), prisoners (5.75% ± 0.212%), surgical patients (7.397% ± 2.012%), patients with cirrhosis (28.87% ± 11.90%), patients with HCC (22% ± 2.645%), patients with hepatitis (15.896% ± 14.824%), patients with liver diseases (27.54% ± 6.385%), multiple transfused patients (6.223% ± 2.121%), opthalmic patients (3.89% ± 1.004%) and users of injectable drugs (14.95% ± 10.536%). Genotype D (63.71%) is the most prevalent genotype in Pakistani population. Mass vaccination and awareness programs should be initiated on urgent basis especially in populations with HBV infection rates of more than 5%.

  7. Hepatitis B virus in Pakistan: A systematic review of prevalence, risk factors, awareness status and genotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afzal Samia

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In Pakistan, there are estimated 7-9 million carriers of hepatitis B virus (HBV with a carrier rate of 3-5%. This article reviews the available literature about the prevalence, risk factors, awareness status and genotypes of the HBV in Pakistan by using key words; HBV prevalence, risk factors, awareness status and genotypes in Pakistani population in PubMed, PakMediNet, Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ and Google Scholar. One hundred and six different studies published from 1998 to 2010 were included in this study. Weighted mean and standard deviation were determined for each population group. The percentage of hepatitis B virus infection in general population was 4.3318% ± 1.644%, healthy blood donors (3.93% ± 1.58%, military recruits (4.276% ± 1.646%, healthcare persons (3.25% ± 1.202%, pregnant women (5.872% ± 4.984, prisoners (5.75% ± 0.212%, surgical patients (7.397% ± 2.012%, patients with cirrhosis (28.87% ± 11.90%, patients with HCC (22% ± 2.645%, patients with hepatitis (15.896% ± 14.824%, patients with liver diseases (27.54% ± 6.385%, multiple transfused patients (6.223% ± 2.121%, opthalmic patients (3.89% ± 1.004% and users of injectable drugs (14.95% ± 10.536%. Genotype D (63.71% is the most prevalent genotype in Pakistani population. Mass vaccination and awareness programs should be initiated on urgent basis especially in populations with HBV infection rates of more than 5%.

  8. Refractory Hypertension: Determination of Prevalence, Risk Factors and Comorbidities in a Large, Population-Based Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calhoun, David A.; Booth, John N.; Oparil, Suzanne; Irvin, Marguerite R.; Shimbo, Daichi; Lackland, Daniel T.; Howard, George; Safford, Monika M.; Muntner, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Refractory hypertension is an extreme phenotype of antihypertensive treatment failure. Participants in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study, a large (n=30,239), population-based cohort were evaluated to determine the prevalence of refractory hypertension and associated cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities. Refractory hypertension was defined as uncontrolled blood pressure (systolic/diastolic ≥ 140/90 mm Hg) on ≥ 5 antihypertensive drug classes. Participants with resistant hypertension (systolic/diastolic ≥140/90 mm Hg on ≥ 3 orhypertensive participants served as comparator groups. Of 14,809 REGARDS participants receiving antihypertensive treatment, 78 (0.5%) had refractory hypertension. The prevalence of refractory hypertension was 3.6% among participants with resistant hypertension(n=2,144) and 41.7% among participants on 5 or more antihypertensive drug classes. Among all hypertensive participants, African American race, male gender, living in the stroke belt or buckle, higher body mass index, lower heart rate, reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate, albuminuria, diabetes and history of stroke and coronary heart disease were associated with refractory hypertension. Compared to resistant hypertension, prevalence ratios for refractory hypertension were increased for African Americans (3.00, 95% CI 1.68 – 5.37) and those with albuminuria (2.22, 95% CI 1.40 – 3.52) and diabetes (2.09, 95% CI 1.32 – 3.31). The median 10-year Framingham risk for coronary heart disease and stroke was higher among participants with refractory hypertension compared to either comparator group. These data indicate that while resistant hypertension is relatively common among treated hypertensive patients, true antihypertensive treatment failure is rare. PMID:24324035

  9. Calculation of prevalence estimates through differential equations: application to stroke-related disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mar, Javier; Sainz-Ezkerra, María; Moler-Cuiral, Jose Antonio

    2008-01-01

    Neurological diseases now make up 6.3% of the global burden of disease mainly because they cause disability. To assess disability, prevalence estimates are needed. The objective of this study is to apply a method based on differential equations to calculate the prevalence of stroke-related disability. On the basis of a flow diagram, a set of differential equations for each age group was constructed. The linear system was solved analytically and numerically. The parameters of the system were obtained from the literature. The model was validated and calibrated by comparison with previous results. The stroke prevalence rate per 100,000 men was 828, and the rate for stroke-related disability was 331. The rates steadily rose with age, but the group between the ages of 65 and 74 years had the highest total number of individuals. Differential equations are useful to represent the natural history of neurological diseases and to make possible the calculation of the prevalence for the various states of disability. In our experience, when compared with the results obtained by Markov models, the benefit of the continuous use of time outweighs the mathematical requirements of our model. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  10. Body dysmorphic disorder in different settings: A systematic review and estimated weighted prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veale, David; Gledhill, Lucinda J; Christodoulou, Polyxeni; Hodsoll, John

    2016-09-01

    Our aim was to systematically review the prevalence of body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) in a variety of settings. Weighted prevalence estimate and 95% confidence intervals in each study were calculated. The weighted prevalence of BDD in adults in the community was estimated to be 1.9%; in adolescents 2.2%; in student populations 3.3%; in adult psychiatric inpatients 7.4%; in adolescent psychiatric inpatients 7.4%; in adult psychiatric outpatients 5.8%; in general cosmetic surgery 13.2%; in rhinoplasty surgery 20.1%; in orthognathic surgery 11.2%; in orthodontics/cosmetic dentistry settings 5.2%; in dermatology outpatients 11.3%; in cosmetic dermatology outpatients 9.2%; and in acne dermatology clinics 11.1%. Women outnumbered men in the majority of settings but not in cosmetic or dermatological settings. BDD is common in some psychiatric and cosmetic settings but is poorly identified. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimation of cancer risks from radiotherapy of benign diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trott, K.R.; Kamprad, F.

    2006-01-01

    Background: The effective-dose method which was proposed by the ICRP (International Commission of Radiation Protection) for the estimation of risk to the general population from occupational or environmental, low-dose radiation exposure is not adequate for estimating the risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of malignant or nonmalignant diseases. Methods:The risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of benign diseases should be based on epidemiologic data directly derived from follow-up studies of patients who had been given radiotherapy for nonmalignant diseases in the past. Results: Risk factors were derived from epidemiologic studies of patients treated with irradiation for nonmalignant diseases to be used for selecting treatment options and optimizing treatment procedures. Conclusion: In most cases, cancer risks estimated by the effective-dose method may overestimate the true risks by one order of magnitude, yet in other cases even may underestimate it. The proposed method using organ-specific risk factors may be more suitable for treatment planning. (orig.)

  12. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  13. Risk estimates for the health effects of alpha radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, D.C.; McNeill, K.G.

    1981-09-01

    This report provides risk estimates for various health effects of alpha radiation. Human and animal data have been used to characterize the shapes of dose-response relations and the effects of various modifying factors, but quantitative risk estimates are based solely on human data: for lung cancer, on miners in the Colorado plateau, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, Ontario and Newfoundland; for bone and head cancers, on radium dial painters and radium-injected patients. Slopes of dose-response relations for lung cancer show a tendency to decrease with increasing dose. Linear extrapolation is unlikely to underestimate the excess risk at low doses by more than a factor of l.5. Under the linear cell-killing model, our best estimate

  14. Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

    2013-01-01

    Summary An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations. PMID:23914133

  15. Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Age-adjusted Prevalence Data (2011 to Present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to present. BRFSS SMART MMSA age-adjusted prevalence combined land line and cell phone data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the...

  16. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Hearing Loss Using the Korean Working Conditions Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Oh Jun

    2012-01-01

    Background and Objectives The hearing loss of workers can occur when they are affected by age, otologic disease, and work-related risks such as noise and chemicals. Based on the Korean Working Conditions Survey (KWCS) in 2010, this research aimed to estimate the prevalence rate of hearing loss and to identify the risk factors affecting its occurrence. Subjects and Methods The subjects were 10019 employees who completed an interview conducted as part of KWCS in 2010. The prevalence rate of hearing loss according to sex, age, education, income, smoking, drinking, hypertension, industrial type, occupations, employment status, working period, and hazards at the workplace were assessed. The factors that could affect the occurrence of hearing loss were investigated based on a logistic regression analysis. Results The prevalence rate of hearing loss was 2.7%. In a logistic multivariate analysis, sex, age, occupations, working period, noise, and exposure to chemicals showed statistically significant correlations to the occurrence of hearing loss. The adjusted odd ratios were as follows: 1.74 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-2.96] for males, 2.11 (95% CI, 1.14-3.89) for those in their 40s, 2.24 (95% CI, 1.19-4.20) for those in their 50s, 2.21 (95% CI, 1.18-4.15) for manage/professional works, 2.73 (95% CI, 1.69-4.41) for manufacturing, 2.07 (95% CI, 1.36-3.15) for those who have worked for more than 20 years, 1.72 (95% CI, 1.14-2.58) for noise exposure, 1.53 (95% CI, 1.02-2.30) for vibration exposure and 1.58 (95% CI, 1.11-2.24) for chemical exposure. Conclusions The overall occupational and non-occupational risk factors related to employees' hearing loss were reviewed. In addition to the exposure to noise, occupational risks of hearing loss, such as isolated exposure to vibration and chemicals, and combined exposure to noise and these hazards, were identified. Multiple exposure to hazards, along with prolonged noise exposure increased the risk of hearing loss. PMID

  17. Estimating the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake from national food balance sheets: effects of methodological assumptions.

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    K Ryan Wessells

    Full Text Available The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake in a population can be estimated by comparing the zinc content of the food supply with the population's theoretical requirement for zinc. However, assumptions regarding the nutrient composition of foods, zinc requirements, and zinc absorption may affect prevalence estimates. These analyses were conducted to: (1 evaluate the effect of varying methodological assumptions on country-specific estimates of the prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and (2 generate a model considered to provide the best estimates.National food balance data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Zinc and phytate contents of these foods were estimated from three nutrient composition databases. Zinc absorption was predicted using a mathematical model (Miller equation. Theoretical mean daily per capita physiological and dietary requirements for zinc were calculated using recommendations from the Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine and the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group. The estimated global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake varied between 12-66%, depending on which methodological assumptions were applied. However, country-specific rank order of the estimated prevalence of inadequate intake was conserved across all models (r = 0.57-0.99, P<0.01. A "best-estimate" model, comprised of zinc and phytate data from a composite nutrient database and IZiNCG physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, estimated the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake to be 17.3%.Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in this method, caution must be taken in the interpretation of the estimated prevalence figures. However, the results of all models indicate that inadequate zinc intake may be fairly common globally. Inferences regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem in different countries can be drawn based on the country

  18. Prevalence and herd-level risk factors for bovine tuberculosis in the State of Paraná, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria do Carmo Pessôa Silva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Bovine tuberculosis is a zoonosis with worldwide distribution. Its control has a direct impact on public health and livestock production. This study estimated the prevalence of infected herds and adult bovines and evaluated risk factors associated with the presence of tuberculosis within herds in the state of Paraná. The state was divided in seven livestock regions and independent sampling was performed. A total of 1,419 farms were sampled and 16,045 animals were tested using the intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin diagnostic test. The apparent and estimated prevalence rates in farms and adult bovine animals were 2.15% (95% CI: 1.31-3.00 and 0.42% (95% CI: 0.04-0.81, respectively. It was not possible to state with 95% confidence that the disease prevalence in any region was significantly different from that in other regions. There were no positive animals in the western region, and the prevalence of positive herds and animals in the other regions ranged from 1.03% to 3.89% and 0.17% to 1.08%, respectively. The logistic regression model identified larger herd size (OR = 2.4 and mechanical cmilking (OR = 5.18 as risk factors associated with the presence of bovine tuberculosis. The combination of low prevalence with risk factors associated to larger herds and more intensive dairy farming, renders the state of Paraná a good candidate for the implementation of industry-based free-herd accreditation schemes and makes a case for planning risk-based surveillance targeted at major dairy basins.

  19. [Overweight and obesity prevalence estimates in a population from Zaragoza by using different growth references].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasarte-Velillas, J J; Hernández-Aguilar, M T; Martínez-Boyero, T; Soria-Cabeza, G; Soria-Ruiz, D; Bastarós-García, J C; Gil-Hernández, I; Pastor-Arilla, C; Lasarte-Sanz, I

    2015-03-01

    To investigate the prevalence of overweight and obesity among our pediatric population and observe whether the use of different growth references for classification produce significant differences. A total of 35824 boys and girls aged between 2 and 14 years were included. Body mass index (BMI) was used to calculate the prevalence of overweight-obesity by age and sex. Prevalence was obtained by using a set of national references (Hernández's standards) and the references of World Health Organization (WHO standards). Prevalences were compared for each age and sex subset, as well as with the percentage of patients who had an overweight-obesity diagnosis in the clinical record. The overall prevalence of overweight-obesity among children aged 2 to 14 years was 17.0% (95% CI; 16.1%-18.0%) according to the Hernández standards vs 30.8% (95% CI; 29.9%-31.7%) according to WHO standards (10.1% vs 12.2% obese, and 6.9% vs 18.6% overweight). It was significantly higher in boys, by both standards, due to the higher prevalence of obesity. By using the Hernández standards the prevalence was significantly lower than by using WHO standards for all ages and for both sexes. A low percentage of patients were found to have an obesity-overweight diagnosis in the clinical record (from 3% to 22% at the ages of 2 and 14 years, respectively). The prevalence of overweight-obesity in our population is high, especially among boys. Using Hernández standards leads to an under-estimation of the problem, especially because it detects less overweight patients, thus we recommend using the WHO standards in our daily practice. The low number of overweight-obesity diagnoses in the clinical records might reflect that there is little awareness of the problem by the professionals. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  20. Prevalence and risk of pressure ulcers in acute care following implementation of practice guidelines: annual pressure ulcer prevalence census 1994-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanDenKerkhof, Elizabeth G; Friedberg, Elaine; Harrison, Margaret B

    2011-09-01

    Hospital-acquired pressure ulcers in the United States were estimated to cost US$2.2 to US$3.6 billion per year in 1999. In the early 1990s clinical practice guidelines for the prevention and treatment of pressure ulcers were introduced. The purpose of this study was to examine the epidemiology of pressure ulcers in acute care in Canada. The current study is based on 12,787 individuals who were inpatients during a 1-day annual census conducted in an acute care facility in Ontario between 1994 and 2008. The prevalence and incidence of pressure ulcer decreased slightly over time while the risk of pressure ulcer increased. The coccyx sacrum (~27%), heel (13%), ankle (~12%), and ischial tubersosity (~10%) were the most common ulcer sites. The implementation of clinical practice guidelines appears to have improved the quality of patient care, as demonstrated by increasing pressure ulcer risk while the prevalence and incidence of pressure ulcers has remained somewhat constant. From a policy perspective the importance of monitoring and tracking the risk and occurrence of this adverse event provides a general indicator of care, considering the many organizational aspects that may ameliorate risk. © 2011 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

  1. [Prevalence of mobbing in workers and factor risk associates].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina-Gómez, Oswaldo Sinoe

    2016-01-01

    In Mexico there is little research to know the magnitude of mobbing. To identify the prevalence of mobbing and characteristics associated in workers. A cross-sectional study of 499 workers who use medical unit. A questionnaire was used to determine the presence of mobbing and various instruments to know the personality, vulnerability to stress, self-esteem and depression. Prevalence odds ratio, dispersion, chi-square and Poisson regression were calculated. A prevalence of 36% was found; no significant differences between sex or school level in mobbing presence, 20.2%, were found. Sixty per cent women are perceived as victims of harassment high relative to men (p = 0.04). Workers with low self-esteem have a greater association with high mobbing (p mobbing and personality and emotional disorders were identified.

  2. Estimates of cancer deaths attributable to behavioural risk factors in Italy, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battisti, Francesca; Carreras, Giulia; Grassi, Tommaso; Chellini, Elisabetta; Gorini, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    "Non-communicable diseases cause more than 80% of deaths in europe and, among these, 20% are caused by cancer. Modifiable lifestyle factors considered in the italian national programme "Guadagnare salute" (Gaining health), such as tobacco smoking, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, overweight, and excessive alcohol use, are amongst the major causes of cancer deaths. The aims of this study was to estimate the number of deaths attributable to lifestyle factors for italy and for italian regions in 2013 and to describe its variation in relation to the regional prevalence of risk factors exposure. For Italy and for each italian region, deaths attributable to lifestyle factors were estimated using the methodology of the Global Burden of disease (GBd) study. italian mortality data of 2013 and risks attributable to these lifestyle factors for each cancer site for italy from the GBd study were used. Prevalence of exposure to lifestyles in Italy and in each Italian Region was collected for the period 2008-2013. In 2013, at least 66,605 cancer deaths in italy were attributable to lifestyle factors, accounting for 37.9% of all cancer deaths: 34.1% of cancer deaths in men and 9.0% in women were attributable to smoking; in men and women, respectively, 3.3% and 2.8% were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption; 5.3 % and 6.7% to overweight; 10.1% and 7.1% to dietary risk factors; 1.9% and 4.2% to physical inactivity. A moderate variability of percentage of deaths attributable to modifi able lifestyle factors by region was also detected due to different prevalence values of exposure to lifestyles occurred in last decades. At least 45,000 cancer deaths in men and 21,000 in women occurred in 2013 were attributable to modifi able risk factors, whose prevalence varied by region and which could be averted through the implementation of primary prevention interventions."

  3. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Hypertension in Adults in an Urban Slum, Tirupati, A.P.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reddy S

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Research question : What is the prevalence of hypertension and its risk factors among adults aged 20-60 years residing years residing in an urban slum area of Tirupati town, A.P.? Objective : To study the prevalence of hypertension and its risk factors as well as its extent of diagnosis and management among adults aged 20-60 years residing in an urban slum area of Tirupati. Study design : Cross sectional. Study setting : Channa Reddy Colony (Urban slum area in Tirupati town, A.P. Study subjects : 1000 adults in the age group of 20-60 years (Males-500; Females-500 residing in an urban slum area of Tirupati town, A.P. Study variables : Age, sex, occupation, family history of hypertension, history of cerebrovascular/cardiovascular events, diabetes mellitus, saturated fat intake, intake of excess salt, smoking, alcohol intake and regular physical exercise. Outcome Variables : Number of hypertensives and mean blood pressure level estimations. Statistical analysis : Proportions, Chi--square tests, ′F′ ratios, ′t′ tests, Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results : The overall prevalence of hypertension was found to be 8.6%. Out of the 86 hypertensives, 72 (83.7% were aware of their hypertension; all of those aware were under treatment; among the treated, only 30 (41.7% had satisfactory control of their hypertension. Higher prevalence of hypertension was found with history of cerbrovascular/cardiovascular events (50.0%, diabetes mellitus (33.3%, family history of hypertension (23.3%, smoking (22.4%, age more than 50 years (22.2%, alcohol intake (20.0%, lack of physical exercise (15.8%, B.M.I.>25 (14.9%, male sex (9.6, non-vegetarian diet (8.8% and saturated fat intake (8.8%. The mean systolic as well as diastolic blood pressures were found to be higher among men, higher age groups, and in business occupation of the respondents. Conclusions : Despite treatment, most of the hypertensives had not achieved satisfactory control of blood

  4. Erectile Dysfunction in Young Men-A Review of the Prevalence and Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hoang Minh Tue; Gabrielson, Andrew T; Hellstrom, Wayne J G

    2017-10-01

    Erectile dysfunction (ED) is an important health concern that can significantly affect a man's psychosocial well-being. ED has traditionally been considered a disease of old age; however, contemporary evidence suggests a growing incidence of ED in men younger than 40 years. The process of achieving an erection is multifaceted; there are many potential mechanisms that can be disrupted. It is critical to identify the specific causes of ED before proceeding with potentially costly and invasive therapeutic options. Advances in diagnostic and treatment modalities offer opportunities to identify and manage young men with ED. To provide an update on the prevalence and risk factors of ED in young men and to provide a framework to guide clinicians in identifying and managing the affected young man. Comprehensive review of the literature pertaining to ED in young men. ED in young men was assessed by outlining the prevalence according to recent epidemiologic studies. The pathophysiology, diagnostic considerations, risk factors, and etiologies were reviewed. Large multinational studies have estimated the prevalence of ED in young men to be as high as 30%. Several studies have stratified the etiologies of ED into psychogenic and organic causes. Psychogenic etiologies of ED include depression, anxiety, and partner-related difficulties. These patients tend to experience sudden onset of symptoms, with decreased libido and good quality of spontaneous or self-stimulated erections. Organic etiologies include vasculogenic, endocrinologic, neurogenic, iatrogenic, and structural components. These patients usually experience gradual onset of symptoms and a low to normal libido. Conservative treatments such as phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors continue to be the mainstay treatment. ED in young men is an increasingly common condition. A careful diagnostic evaluation should focus on the identification of any underlying etiology to ensure appropriate management of patients. Nguyen HMT

  5. Current estimates of radiation risks and implications for dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.H.

    1989-01-01

    The publication of the 1988 report of UNSCEAR represents a major step forward in that there is an international consensus on the estimation of risk from exposure to ionising radiation. The estimates of fatal cancers in the UNSCEAR report are up to 4 times the values in the 1977 review. This paper will describe the reasons for the increase, the remaining uncertainties and the implications for dose limits in occupational and public exposure. (author)

  6. Estimation of risks to humans following intake of plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolphin, G.W.

    1979-01-01

    The lung cancer in humans induced by plutonium intake usually starts in bronchial epithelium. The main types of lung cancer are epidermoid or squamous cell carcinoma, small cell anaplastic carcinoma, carcinoid types and bronchio-loalveolar cell carcinoma. The data on cancer in the patients given intravascular injections of Thorotrast are the only source of data from which risk estimates can be made for liver cancer. In the beagles injected with plutonium citrate, the only type of liver tumors observed in cholangiosarcoma, and if this were the case for humans, then the appropriate risk estimate is 3 times lower in human patients. Bone sarcoma and the cancer of the epithelial surfaces close to bones have been reported extensively in workers and patients exposed to radium-226 and radium-224. In the case of plutonium, it is assumed for the purpose of risk estimates that the cancer of the epithelial surfaces near bones does not occur. Plutonium passes through guts following ingestion or following the clearance of particles initially deposited in respiratory tracts. In the case of all long-lived radionuclides, lower large intestines are the region which receive the greatest dose from the activity passing through guts. It is assumed that plutonium accumulates in bone marrows through the action of macrophages engulfing the plutonium resorbed from bone surfaces. The main uncertainty in estimating the annual limit of intake probably lies in the metabolic and dosimetric models, and to a lesser extent, in the estimate of risk. (Yamashita, S.)

  7. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  8. Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

  9. Prevalence and risk factors for brucellosis in prolonged fever ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ifiable risk factors for the infection in humans in post conflict Northern Uganda. Methods: The .... models. Goodness of fit for the final model was assessed using Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit test. Results .... Quantifying risk factors.

  10. An examination of healthy aging across a conceptual continuum: prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Sara J; Jette, Alan M; Connell, Cathleen M

    2012-06-01

    Although the notion of healthy aging has gained wide acceptance in gerontology, measuring the phenomenon is challenging. Guided by a prominent conceptualization of healthy aging, we examined how shifting from a more to less stringent definition of healthy aging influences prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity. Data are from adults aged 65 years and older who participated in the Health and Retirement Study. We examined four operational definitions of healthy aging. For each, we calculated prevalence estimates and examined the odds of healthy aging by age, education, gender, and race-ethnicity in 2006. We also examined the association between healthy aging and both self-rated health and death. Across definitions, the prevalence of healthy aging ranged from 3.3% to 35.5%. For all definitions, those classified as experiencing healthy aging had lower odds of fair or poor self-rated health and death over an 8-year period. The odds of being classified as "healthy" were lower among those of advanced age, those with less education, and women than for their corresponding counterparts across all definitions. Moving across the conceptual continuum--from a more to less rigid definition of healthy aging--markedly increases the measured prevalence of healthy aging. Importantly, results suggest that all examined definitions identified a subgroup of older adults who had substantially lower odds of reporting fair or poor health and dying over an 8-year period, providing evidence of the validity of our definitions. Conceptualizations that emphasize symptomatic disease and functional health may be particularly useful for public health purposes.

  11. Summary of the BEIR V committee's estimates of genetic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grahn, D.

    1990-01-01

    The Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR V) was constituted in late 1986 to conduct a comprehensive review of the biological effects of ionizing radiations focusing on information reported since the conclusion of the 1980 BEIR study, and to provide new estimates of the risks of genetic and somatic effects in humans due to low-level exposures of ionizing radiation. The Committee preferred the doubling-dose method of genetic risk estimation over the direct method. Data from animal (mouse) studies provide a median value of 100 to 114 cGy for long-term low dose rate exposure doubling doses. These values are lower than the median from human studies. The BEIR Committee believed that a doubling dose of 100 cGy would be a prudent value leading to conservative estimates. The estimated risks themselves are not much different from those generated by previous BEIR committees, UNSCEAR, and other published estimates. The Committee estimates that between 100 and 200 added cases per million live births will be observed at genetic equilibrium if the population is exposed each generation to a dose of 0.01 Sv (1 rem). Nearly half ware attributed to clinically mild dominant defects, and the balance to congenital abnormalities. (L.L.) (2 tabs.)

  12. Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through comparative analysis of two alternative scenarios identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated fixed low-level waste currently stored at INEL. These two scenarios, the Base Case and the Delay Case, are realistic and based on actual data, but are not intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at INEL. Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios using the System Cost Model; resulting costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings for the Delay Case, cumulative life cycle costs eventually become much higher than costs for the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate the longer Delay Case schedule. Life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a new risk analysis method adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Relative risk of the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most economically

  13. Estimating disability prevalence among adults by body mass index: 2003-2009 National Health Interview Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Brian S; Courtney-Long, Elizabeth; Campbell, Vincent A; Wethington, Holly R

    2012-01-01

    Obesity is associated with adverse health outcomes in people with and without disabilities; however, little is known about disability prevalence among people who are obese. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence and type of disability among obese adults in the United States. We analyzed pooled data from sample adult modules of the 2003-2009 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to obtain national prevalence estimates of disability, disability type, and obesity by using 30 questions that screened for activity limitations, vision and hearing impairment, and cognitive, movement, and emotional difficulties. We stratified disability prevalence by category of body mass index (BMI, measured as kg/m(2)): underweight, less than 18.5; normal weight, 18.5 to 24.9; overweight, 25.0 to 29.9; and obese, 30.0 or higher. Among the 25.3% of adult men and 24.6% of women in our pooled sample who were obese, 35.2% and 46.9%, respectively, reported a disability. In contrast, 26.7% of men and 26.8% women of normal weight reported a disability. Disability was much higher among obese women than among obese men (46.9% vs 35.2%, P < .001). Movement difficulties were the most common disabilities among obese men and women, affecting 25.3% of men and 37.9% of women. This research contributes to the literature on obesity by including disability as a demographic in characterizing people by body mass index. Because of the high prevalence of disability among those who are obese, public health programs should consider the needs of those with disabilities when designing obesity prevention and treatment programs.

  14. Prevalence and risk indicators of depression in elderly nursing home patients : the AGED study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongenelis, K; Eisses, AMH; Beekman, ATF; Kluiter, H; Ribbe, MW

    2004-01-01

    Background: Depression is a common and disabling psychiatric disorder in later life. Particular frail nursing home patients seem to be at increased risk. Nursing home-based studies on risk indicators of depression are scarce. Methods: Prevalence and risk indicators of depression were assessed in 333

  15. Revision of risk estimates and implications for dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.H.

    1989-01-01

    It has been apparent for some time that our estimates of the risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation must be increased above those values reported by UNSCEAR in 1977 an dused by ICRP to form their present recommendations. NRPB foresaw some of these changes and introduced interim advice within the UK to restrict exposures of wordkers and members of the public to levels below the existing limits. Since that advice was given, UNSCEAR has produced a 1988 report reviewing human data to provide new estimates of risks associated with exposure at high doses and high doserates. These risk figures are up to 4 times higher than when UNSCEAR reported in 1977. In this paper, the reasons for the changes in the estimates of risk will be described and the current NRPB guidelines for risk factors for protection purposes will be presented. The implications of these new risk factors for the setting of dose limits will then be discussed. (Author). 10 refs.; 2 tabs

  16. Sexual assault incidents among college undergraduates: Prevalence and factors associated with risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude A Mellins

    Full Text Available Sexual assault on college campuses is a public health issue. However varying research methodologies (e.g., different sexual assault definitions, measures, assessment timeframes and low response rates hamper efforts to define the scope of the problem. To illuminate the complexity of campus sexual assault, we collected survey data from a large population-based random sample of undergraduate students from Columbia University and Barnard College in New York City, using evidence based methods to maximize response rates and sample representativeness, and behaviorally specific measures of sexual assault to accurately capture victimization rates. This paper focuses on student experiences of different types of sexual assault victimization, as well as sociodemographic, social, and risk environment correlates. Descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and logistic regression were used to estimate prevalences and test associations. Since college entry, 22% of students reported experiencing at least one incident of sexual assault (defined as sexualized touching, attempted penetration [oral, anal, vaginal, other], or completed penetration. Women and gender nonconforming students reported the highest rates (28% and 38%, respectively, although men also reported sexual assault (12.5%. Across types of assault and gender groups, incapacitation due to alcohol and drug use and/or other factors was the perpetration method reported most frequently (> 50%; physical force (particularly for completed penetration in women and verbal coercion were also commonly reported. Factors associated with increased risk for sexual assault included non-heterosexual identity, difficulty paying for basic necessities, fraternity/sorority membership, participation in more casual sexual encounters ("hook ups" vs. exclusive/monogamous or no sexual relationships, binge drinking, and experiencing sexual assault before college. High rates of re-victimization during college were reported across

  17. [Prevalence and risk factors for urinary incontinence in women living in the South Priaralye region].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaibullaev, A A; Iskandarova, G T; Abdurizaev, A A

    2016-04-01

    To estimate prevalence and types of urinary incontinence (UI) among women living in the South Priaralye region, and to analyze risk factors associated with UI. The population-based study was conducted by nested-typological method. Analysis was carried out on the data of 1487 women collected by a standard ICIQ-SF questionnaire, an assessment tool for female urinary incontinence recommended by the European Association of Urology. The study showed that the prevalence of UI among women aged 18 years and older in the South Priaralye region was 27%. The predominant type of the disease was stress UI since in 44.8% of women, the uncontrolled urine loss occurred during exercise. In 16.1% of women urgent type UI was observed, and in 38.6% mixed type of UI was found. The most significant risk factors for UI were recurrent urinary tract infection (odds ratio (OR) of 5.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.12-8.38), gynecological disease (OR 2.7 (95% CI 1.99-3.59), enuresis in childhood (OR 2.4 (95% CI 1.21-4.88), constipation (OR = 2.1 (95% CI 1.45-2.93) the number of births (OR = 1.2 (95% CI 1,05-1.28), and occupation, namely work involving physical strain (odds ratio of 1.2 (95% CI 1.04-1.43). In the area of the South Priaralye, more than a fourth of adult females were found to have a UI. Understanding the nature and risk factors for UI will allow planning the resources required to provide treatment and preventive measures in the future.

  18. Prevalence and risk factors for gender based violence during ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Gender Based Violence (GBV) is a pervasive and systemic public health problem affecting pregnant women but there is paucity of data on the magnitude of GBV during pregnancy and the factors associated with it in Kenya, particularly in areas where the prevalence of GBV in the general population is ...

  19. Severe Family Violence and Alzheimer's Disease: Prevalence and Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paveza, Gregory J.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Examined violence among 184 Alzheimer patients and their caregivers. Analysis of severe violence subscale of Conflict Tactics Scale indicated that 15.8 percent of patients had been violent in year since diagnosis; 5.4 percent of caregivers had been violent toward patient; and prevalence of violence was 17.4 percent. Variables most associated with…

  20. Prevalence and Risk Factors for Overweight and Obesity among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing in various populations, and is becoming a huge problem among occupational/professional groups that are perceived as preponderantly sedentary. An attendant acquisition or imposition of a lowered physical activity level and other lifestyle with such occupations may ...

  1. The prevalence of hypertension and its modifiable risk factors ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... that the effectiveness of patient education is linked to the healthy habits of the doctor. This study was conducted to find out the prevalence of hypertension and its ... study design was used, with the data collected using a modified form of the ...

  2. Prevalence of erectile dysfunction and possible risk factors among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Erectile dysfunction (ED) is currently one of the most common sexual dysfunctions worldwide but it is usually underestimated because it is not a life threatening condition. The associated stigma makes men who have it to suffer in silence. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of erectile ...

  3. Short communication Prevalence and risk factors of bovine mastitis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    semi-intensive (47.1%) and intensive (42.3%) than extensive (8.1%) management system. The present study indicated higher prevalence of mastitis linked with sev- ... due to zoonosis, food poisoning and antibiotic residue in the milk following ... Information on extrinsic factors such as management system (as extensive,.

  4. Estimating family planning coverage from contraceptive prevalence using national household surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Aluisio J D; Boerma, Ties; Hosseinpoor, Ahmad R; Restrepo-Méndez, María C; Wong, Kerry L M; Victora, Cesar G

    2015-01-01

    Contraception is one of the most important health interventions currently available and yet, many women and couples still do not have reliable access to modern contraceptives. The best indicator for monitoring family planning is the proportion of women using contraception among those who need it. This indicator is frequently called demand for family planning satisfied and we argue that it should be called family planning coverage (FPC). This indicator is complex to calculate and requires a considerable number of questions to be included in a household survey. We propose a model that can predict FPC from a much simpler indicator - contraceptive use prevalence - for situations where it cannot be derived directly. Using 197 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys from 82 countries, we explored least-squares regression models that could be used to predict FPC. Non-linearity was expected in this situation and we used a fractional polynomial approach to find the best fitting model. We also explored the effect of calendar time and of wealth on the models explored. Given the high correlation between the variables involved in FPC, we managed to derive a relatively simple model that depends only on contraceptive use prevalence but explains 95% of the variability of the outcome, with high precision for the estimated regression line. We also show that the relationship between the two variables has not changed with time. A concordance analysis showed agreement between observed and fitted results within a range of ±9 percentage points. We show that it is possible to obtain fairly good estimates of FPC using only contraceptive prevalence as a predictor, a strategy that is useful in situations where it is not possible to estimate FPC directly.

  5. Active case finding for carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in a teaching hospital: prevalence and risk factors for colonization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poole, K; George, R; Decraene, V; Shankar, K; Cawthorne, J; Savage, N; Welfare, W; Dodgson, A

    2016-10-01

    Over the past decade, the prevalence of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) has increased. Whilst basic infection prevention and control practices reduce the risk of transmission, cases of unrecognized carriage pose a potential risk of transmission. To estimate the prevalence of CPE and explore risk factors associated with colonization within a large teaching hospital with an established CPE outbreak. All inpatients that had not previously tested positive for CPE were offered testing. Demographic and hospital episode data were also collected, together with antibiotic and proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use in the preceding 24h. This study identified 70 CPE-positive cases (26 newly identified and 44 previously known) and 592 CPE-negative cases, giving a combined prevalence of 11% [95% confidence interval (CI) 8-13]. Medication (antibiotic and PPI use), previous admission, ethnicity and length of stay were assessed as risk factors for colonization, and none were found to be independently associated with CPE colonization. Using logistic regression, age [odds ratio (OR) 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.07] and antibiotic use (OR 2.55, 95% CI 1.08-6.03) were the only risk factors significantly associated with CPE colonization. This study has added to the evidence base by estimating the prevalence of CPE among inpatients in an acute hospital with an established CPE outbreak. A case-finding exercise was feasible and identified a number of new cases. Despite a small sample size, increasing age and prescription of an antibiotic on the day of testing were significantly associated with CPE colonization. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii IgG and IgM and associated risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii IgG and IgM and associated risk factors among HIV-positive and HIV-negative patients in Vhembe district of South Africa. ... shown a high prevalence of T. gondii (IgG) among patients attending different HIV clinics in the Vhembe district with no current infections among pregnant women.

  7. Prevalence and risk factors for anaemia in pregnant women: a population-based prospective cohort study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiaoyi; Li, Zhu; Ananth, Cande V

    2009-07-01

    Maternal anaemia is a common pregnancy complication in developing countries; however, its epidemiology remains largely unexplored in China. This study was designed to explore the epidemiology and risk factors of anaemia during pregnancy. A prospective cohort study was conducted, using data from a population-based pregnancy-monitoring system in 13 counties in East China (1993-96). Women who delivered singleton infants at 20-44 weeks with at least one haemoglobin assessment during pregnancy were included (n = 164 667). The prevalence of anaemia (haemoglobin pregnancy as well as in each trimester was estimated. Multivariable log-binomial regression models were used to evaluate risk factors. The overall prevalence of anaemia in pregnancy was 32.6%, with substantial variations across trimesters (11.2%, 20.1% and 26.2% in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd trimesters respectively). Risk factors for anaemia included older maternal age, education below junior high school (prevalence rate ratio [RR] 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08, 1.12), farming occupation (1.05, 95% CI 1.03, 1.06), and mild pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH) (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05, 1.13) and severe PIH (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06, 1.19). Peri-conception folic acid use was associated with a reduced risk for anaemia in the 1st trimester (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.72, 0.78). Initiating prenatal care after the 1st trimester was associated with increased risk of anaemia in the 2nd and 3rd trimesters. Our study found anaemia during pregnancy is highly prevalent in this indigenous Chinese population. The risk increases with the severity of hypertensive disorders. Folic acid supplementation during the peri-conception period is associated with reduced risk of 1st trimester anaemia.

  8. [Chronic kidney disease in Primary Health Care: prevalence and associated risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvador González, Betlem; Rodríguez Pascual, Mercedes; Ruipérez Guijarro, Laura; Ferré González, Antonia; Cunillera Puertolas, Oriol; Rodríguez Latre, Luisa M

    2015-04-01

    To determine the prevalence of chronic kidney disease and associated risk factors in subjects over 60 years of age, as well as its staging by determining the glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Cross-sectional observational study. Primary Health Care. Patients≥60 years of age who were seen in 40 Primary Health Care centres with serum creatinine measured in a central laboratory between January 1 and December 31, 2010. kidney transplant, home care. Social-demographic and anthropometric data, cardiovascular risk factors, and diseases established according to electronic clinical records. Serum creatinine was measured using standardised Jaffe kinetic method, and GFR estimated with MDRD-4-IDMS and CKD-EPI. A total of 97,665 subjects (57.3% women, median age 70.0 years [Q1: 65.0, Q3: 77.0]). GFR-MDRD prevalence<60=15.1% (16.6% in women, 13.2% in men; P<.001) and increased with age. Multivariate analysis showed a positive association between GFR-MDRD<60 and age (OR=1.74; 95% CI 1.70 to 1.77), hypertension (OR=2.18; 95% CI 2.08 to 2.30), heart failure (OR=2.03; 95% CI 1.83 to 2.25), atrial fibrillation (OR=1.57; 95% CI 1.41 to 1.76), ischaemic heart disease (OR=1.40; 95% CI 1.30 to 1.50), peripheral arterial disease (OR=1.31; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.57), dyslipidaemia (OR=1.28; 95% CI 1.23 to 1.33), diabetes (OR=1.26; 95% CI 1.17 to 1.34), and stroke (OR=1.17; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.25). The GFR-CKD-EPI model showed an increase in OR with age and male sex, that became significant as a chronic kidney disease risk factor. Chronic kidney disease has considerable prevalence in subjects≥60 years seen in Primary Health Care, more in women, and increasing with age. Hypertension, more than diabetes, was the main associated cardiovascular risk factor. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. Intimate partner violence in urban Pakistan: prevalence, frequency, and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tazeen S Ali

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Tazeen S Ali1,2, Nargis Asad3, Ingrid Mogren4, Gunilla Krantz51School of Nursing, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan; 2Department of Public Health Sciences, Division of Global Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; 3Department of Psychiatry, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan; 4Department of Clinical Science, Obstetrics and Gynecology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; 5Department of Public Health and Community Medicine/Social Medicine, The Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, SwedenBackground: Intimate partner violence (IPV is an important public health issue with severe adverse consequences. Population-based data on IPV from Muslim societies are scarce, and Pakistan is no exception. This study was conducted among women residing in urban Karachi, to estimate the prevalence and frequency of different forms of IPV and their associations with sociodemographic factors.Methods: This cross-sectional community-based study was conducted using a structured questionnaire developed by the World Health Organisation for research on violence. Community midwives conducted face-to-face interviews with 759 married women aged 25–60 years.Results: Self-reported past-year and lifetime prevalence of physical violence was 56.3 and 57.6%, respectively; the corresponding figures for sexual violence were 53.4% and 54.5%, and for psychological abuse were 81.8% and 83.6%. Violent incidents were mostly reported to have occurred on more than three occasions during the lifetime. Risk factors for physical violence related mainly to the husband, his low educational attainment, unskilled worker status, and five or more family members living in one household. For sexual violence, the risk factors were the respondent’s low educational attainment, low socioeconomic status of the family, and five or more family members in one household. For psychological violence, the risk factors were the husband being an unskilled worker and low

  10. Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yoo, Ho Sik [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-10-15

    Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks.

  11. Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2008-01-01

    Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks

  12. Obesity and prevalence of risk behaviour for eating disorders among young Danish women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waaddegaard, Mette; Davidsen, Michael; Kjøller, Mette

    2009-01-01

    AIMS: Danish women aged 16-29 from two nationwide, representative, cross-sectional interview/questionnaire surveys from 2000 and 2005 are analyzed for trends in prevalence of risk behaviour for developing eating disorders and associations to BMI and age. METHODS: Participants completed the Danish...... Health Interview Survey and an 8-item screen, RiBED-8, for risk behaviour for eating disorders. To analyze how the prevalence of risk behaviour depends on age, BMI, and year of survey, logistic regression analyses were applied. On acceptance of no interaction, the effect of each variable was tested...... and described using odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Women aged 16-19 or with a BMI of>25 had the greatest chance of reporting risk behaviour for eating disorders. However, many women in their 20s also had risk behaviour. Prevalence of risk behaviour for eating disorders did not change from...

  13. Prevalence and Risk Factors for Self-Reported Violence of Osaka and Seattle Male Youths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bui, Laura; Farrington, David P.; Ueda, Mitsuaki; Hill, Karl G.

    2013-01-01

    Traditionally, Japan has been regarded as a country with low crime. Comparative research has given insights into the extent of similarities and differences in crime between America and Japan. The importance of these studies is the examination of whether Western-established criminological knowledge is applicable to non- Western societies like Japan. Unfortunately, comparative self-report studies involving Japan and investigating youth offending are scarce. The current study investigates risk factors and self-reports of violence from Osaka and Seattle male youths. The findings reveal that Japanese male youths self-report a higher prevalence of violence than Seattle male youths. Risk factors for violence, issues of comparability, and prevalence versus strength of relationships of risk factors are examined. It is concluded that the higher prevalence of violence in Osaka is primarily a function of the higher prevalence of troubled peers and risk taking. The findings call for replication of this type of comparative research. PMID:24013769

  14. Prevalence and risk factors for HIV among people aged 50 years ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    JOHN

    reproductive and sexual health characteristics of the participants, knowledge on HIV ... Keywords: HIV, older adults, prevalence, knowledge, risk factors, Tanzania ... With increased availability of ART, people are living longer and age with HIV ...

  15. Population prevalence and control of cardiovascular risk factors: What electronic medical records tell us

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arantxa Catalán-Ramos

    2014-01-01

    Conclusions: Hypertension was the most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor in the Catalan population attended at primary care centers. About two thirds of individuals with hypertension or DM2 were adequately controlled; hypercholesterolemia control was particularly low.

  16. Prevalence of enteropathogenic bacteria in treated effluents and receiving water bodies and their potential health risks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Teklehaimanot, GZ

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available in developing countries for multiple purposes, which include drinking, recreation and agriculture. The current study investigated the prevalence and potential health risks of enteropathogenic bacteria (Salmonella typhimurium, Shigella dysenteriae and Vibrio...

  17. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) Prevalence Data (2010 and prior)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 1995-2010. BRFSS land line only prevalence data. BRFSS is a continuous, state-based surveillance system that collects information about modifiable risk factors for...

  18. Prevalence and risk factors for stillbirths in a tertiary hospital in Niger ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    work is properly cited. Prevalence and risk ... women. There were 309(53.1%) male stillbirths and 273(46.9%) female stillbirths. Male foetuses ... Key words: Stillbirth, miscarriage, perinatal mortality, anaemia in pregnancy, obstructed labour ...

  19. Estimates of global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and their association with the Human Development Index

    OpenAIRE

    Kamyar Mansori; Erfan Ayubi; Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani; Shiva Mansouri Hanis; Somayeh Khazaei; Mohadeseh Sani; Yousef Moradi; Salman Khazaei; Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi

    2017-01-01

    Background: HIV/AIDS is one of greatest global public health concerns today due to the high incidence, prevalence and mortality rates. The aim of this research was investigate and estimate the global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and explore their associations with the Human Development Index. Methods: The global age-standardized rates of mortality, prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS were obtained from the UNAIDS for different countries in 2015. The human developm...

  20. Adult current smoking: differences in definitions and prevalence estimates--NHIS and NSDUH, 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Heather; Trosclair, Angela; Gfroerer, Joe

    2012-01-01

    To compare prevalence estimates and assess issues related to the measurement of adult cigarette smoking in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). 2008 data on current cigarette smoking and current daily cigarette smoking among adults ≥18 years were compared. The standard NHIS current smoking definition, which screens for lifetime smoking ≥100 cigarettes, was used. For NSDUH, both the standard current smoking definition, which does not screen, and a modified definition applying the NHIS current smoking definition (i.e., with screen) were used. NSDUH consistently yielded higher current cigarette smoking estimates than NHIS and lower daily smoking estimates. However, with use of the modified NSDUH current smoking definition, a notable number of subpopulation estimates became comparable between surveys. Younger adults and racial/ethnic minorities were most impacted by the lifetime smoking screen, with Hispanics being the most sensitive to differences in smoking variable definitions among all subgroups. Differences in current cigarette smoking definitions appear to have a greater impact on smoking estimates in some sub-populations than others. Survey mode differences may also limit intersurvey comparisons and trend analyses. Investigators are cautioned to use data most appropriate for their specific research questions.

  1. Prevalence of risk factors for hepatitis C and associated factors: a population-based study in southern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvitko, David Timm; Bastos, Gisele Alsina Nader; Pinto, Maria Eugênia Bresolin

    2013-04-01

    The hepatitis C is a severe public health problem worldwide because its consequences. Studies which aim at determining the prevalence of risk factors are really important to understand the problem. To estimate the prevalence and factors associated with some risk factors for the disease in a community, called Restinga, located in the city of Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil. This paper is based on a population-based cross-sectional study, with systematic sampling and proportional to the size of census tracts in which 3,391 adults answered a standardized questionnaire. The prevalence of blood transfusion among the people who were interviewed was 14.98%, 60.83% of those had it before 1993. A total of 16.16% of the people had a tattoo, 7.23% wore a piercing, 1.09% said they had already injected illicit drugs and 12.39% reported previous hospitalization. Prevalence ratios showed that tattoos were more common among young people, piercings among women and illicit drugs among men. To summarize, the recognition of risk factors for hepatitis C enables proper screening of possible carriers of the hepatitis C virus, thus enabling a reduction in virus shedding. However, being only possible if health services are prepared to deal with hepatitis C virus, through education and public awareness.

  2. PREVALENCE OF RISK FACTORS FOR HEPATITIS C AND ASSOCIATED FACTORS: a population-based study in southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Timm KVITKO

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Context The hepatitis C is a severe public health problem worldwide because its consequences. Studies which aim at determining the prevalence of risk factors are really important to understand the problem. Objective To estimate the prevalence and factors associated with some risk factors for the disease in a community, called Restinga, located in the city of Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil. Method This paper is based on a population-based cross-sectional study, with systematic sampling and proportional to the size of census tracts in which 3,391 adults answered a standardized questionnaire. Results The prevalence of blood transfusion among the people who were interviewed was 14.98%, 60.83% of those had it before 1993. A total of 16.16% of the people had a tattoo, 7.23% wore a piercing, 1.09% said they had already injected illicit drugs and 12.39% reported previous hospitalization. Prevalence ratios showed that tattoos were more common among young people, piercings among women and illicit drugs among men. Conclusions To summarize, the recognition of risk factors for hepatitis C enables proper screening of possible carriers of the hepatitis C virus, thus enabling a reduction in virus shedding. However, being only possible if health services are prepared to deal with hepatitis C virus, through education and public awareness.

  3. Estimation of Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkis Vicente Sánchez

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: diabetes mellitus accelerates atherosclerotic changes throughout the vascular tree and consequently increases the risk of developing fatal acute events. Objective: to estimate the global cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: a cross-sectional study of a series of type 2 diabetic patients from the People's Council of Constancia, Abreus municipality, Cienfuegos province was conducted from July to December 2012. The universe comprised the 180 people with diabetes in the area. Variables studied were: age, sex, body mass index, nutritional assessment, blood pressure, toxic habits, associated chronic diseases, blood levels of glucose, lipids (total cholesterol and triglycerides and microalbuminuria. World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension prediction charts specific to the region of the Americas, in which Cuba is included, were used to estimate the cardiovascular risk. Results: mean age was 61.63 years and females predominated. Relevant risk factors were hypertension followed by obesity, smoking and dyslipidemia. Mean body mass index was 27.66kg/m2; waist circumference was 94.45 cm in women and 96.86 cm in men. Thirty point six percent had more than two uncontrolled risk factors and 28.3 % of the total presented a high to very high cardiovascular risk. Conclusions: cardiovascular risk prediction charts are helpful tools for making clinical decisions, but their interpretation must be flexible and allow the intervention of clinical reasoning.

  4. Association between subjective risk perception and objective risk estimation in patients with atrial fibrillation: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zweiker, David; Zweiker, Robert; Winkler, Elisabeth; Roesch, Konstantina; Schumacher, Martin; Stepan, Vinzenz; Krippl, Peter; Bauer, Norbert; Heine, Martin; Reicht, Gerhard; Zweiker, Gudrun; Sprenger, Martin; Watzinger, Norbert

    2017-09-25

    Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is state-of-the-art therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common arrhythmia worldwide. However, little is known about the perception of patients with AF and how it correlates with risk scores used by their physicians. Therefore, we correlated patients' estimates of their own stroke and bleeding risk with the objectively predicted individual risk using CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores. Cross-sectional prevalence study using convenience sampling and telephone follow-up. Eight hospital departments and one general practitioner in Austria. Patients' perception of stroke and bleeding risk was opposed to commonly used risk scoring. Patients with newly diagnosed AF and indication for anticoagulation. Comparison of subjective risk perception with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores showing possible discrepancies between subjective and objective risk estimation. Patients' judgement of their own knowledge on AF and education were also correlated with accuracy of subjective risk appraisal. Ninety-one patients (age 73±11 years, 45% female) were included in this study. Subjective stroke and bleeding risk estimation did not correlate with risk scores (ρ=0.08 and ρ=0.17). The majority of patients (57%) underestimated the individual stroke risk. Patients feared stroke more than bleeding (67% vs 10%). There was no relationship between accurate perception of stroke and bleeding risks and education level. However, we found a correlation between the patients' judgement of their own knowledge of AF and correct assessment of individual stroke risk (ρ=0.24, p=0.02). During follow-up, patients experienced the following events: death (n=5), stroke (n=2), bleeding (n=1). OAC discontinuation rate despite indication was 3%. In this cross-sectional analysis of OAC-naive patients with AF, we found major differences between patients' perceptions and physicians' assessments of risks and benefits of OAC. To ensure shared decision-making and informed

  5. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks

  6. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

  7. Biomechanical Indices for Rupture Risk Estimation in Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leemans, Eva L.; Willems, Tineke P.; van der Laan, Maarten J.; Slump, Cornelis H.; Zeebregts, Clark J.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To review the use of biomechanical indices for the estimation of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture risk, emphasizing their potential use in a clinical setting. Methods: A search of the PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Compendex databases was made up to June 2015 to identify articles

  8. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  9. Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

  10. Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  11. Prevalence Estimation and Validation of New Instruments in Psychiatric Research: An Application of Latent Class Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pence, Brian Wells; Miller, William C.; Gaynes, Bradley N.

    2009-01-01

    Prevalence and validation studies rely on imperfect reference standard (RS) diagnostic instruments that can bias prevalence and test characteristic estimates. The authors illustrate 2 methods to account for RS misclassification. Latent class analysis (LCA) combines information from multiple imperfect measures of an unmeasurable latent condition to…

  12. National HIV prevalence estimates for sub-Saharan Africa: controlling selection bias with Heckman-type selection models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Daniel R; Salomon, Joshua A; Canning, David; Hammitt, James K; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Bärnighausen, Till

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Population-based HIV testing surveys have become central to deriving estimates of national HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. However, limited participation in these surveys can lead to selection bias. We control for selection bias in national HIV prevalence estimates using a novel approach, which unlike conventional imputation can account for selection on unobserved factors. Methods For 12 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted from 2001 to 2009 (N=138 300), we predict HIV status among those missing a valid HIV test with Heckman-type selection models, which allow for correlation between infection status and participation in survey HIV testing. We compare these estimates with conventional ones and introduce a simulation procedure that incorporates regression model parameter uncertainty into confidence intervals. Results Selection model point estimates of national HIV prevalence were greater than unadjusted estimates for 10 of 12 surveys for men and 11 of 12 surveys for women, and were also greater than the majority of estimates obtained from conventional imputation, with significantly higher HIV prevalence estimates for men in Cote d'Ivoire 2005, Mali 2006 and Zambia 2007. Accounting for selective non-participation yielded 95% confidence intervals around HIV prevalence estimates that are wider than those obtained with conventional imputation by an average factor of 4.5. Conclusions Our analysis indicates that national HIV prevalence estimates for many countries in sub-Saharan African are more uncertain than previously thought, and may be underestimated in several cases, underscoring the need for increasing participation in HIV surveys. Heckman-type selection models should be included in the set of tools used for routine estimation of HIV prevalence. PMID:23172342

  13. Neoplastic potential of gastric irradiation. IV. Risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griem, M.L.; Justman, J.; Weiss, L.

    1984-01-01

    No significant tumor increase was found in the initial analysis of patients irradiated for peptic ulcer and followed through 1962. A preliminary study was undertaken 22 years later to estimate the risk of cancer due to gastric irradiation for peptic ulcer disease. A population of 2,049 irradiated patients and 763 medically managed patients has been identified. A relative risk of 3.7 was found for stomach cancer and an initial risk estimate of 5.5 x 10(-6) excess stomach cancers per person rad was calculated. A more complete follow-up is in progress to further elucidate this observation and decrease the ascertainment bias; however, preliminary data are in agreement with the Japanese atomic bomb reports

  14. Best-Estimates in Bond Markets with Reinvestment Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne MacKay

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The concept of best-estimate, prescribed by regulators to value insurance liabilities for accounting and solvency purposes, has recently been discussed extensively in the industry and related academic literature. To differentiate hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks in a general case, recent literature defines best-estimates using orthogonal projections of a claim on the space of replicable payoffs. In this paper, we apply this concept of best-estimate to long-maturity claims in a market with reinvestment risk, since in this case the total liability cannot easily be separated into hedgeable and non-hedgeable parts. We assume that a limited number of short-maturity bonds are traded, and derive the best-estimate price of bonds with longer maturities, thus obtaining a best-estimate yield curve. We therefore use the multifactor Vasiˇcek model and derive within this framework closed-form expressions for the best-estimate prices of long-term bonds.

  15. A Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to estimate disease prevalence in hard-to-reach populations: hepatitis C in New York City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Sarah; Makela, Susanna; Heller, Daliah; Konty, Kevin; Balter, Sharon; Zheng, Tian; Stark, James H

    2018-06-01

    Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV) in New York City (NYC) are limited in scope and fail to assess hard-to-reach subpopulations with highest risk such as injecting drug users (IDUs). To address these limitations, we employ a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis model to systematically combine multiple sources of data, account for bias in certain data sources, and provide unbiased HCV prevalence estimates with associated uncertainty. Our approach improves on previous estimates by explicitly accounting for injecting drug use and including data from high-risk subpopulations such as the incarcerated, and is more inclusive, utilizing ten NYC data sources. In addition, we derive two new equations to allow age at first injecting drug use data for former and current IDUs to be incorporated into the Bayesian evidence synthesis, a first for this type of model. Our estimated overall HCV prevalence as of 2012 among NYC adults aged 20-59 years is 2.78% (95% CI 2.61-2.94%), which represents between 124,900 and 140,000 chronic HCV cases. These estimates suggest that HCV prevalence in NYC is higher than previously indicated from household surveys (2.2%) and the surveillance system (2.37%), and that HCV transmission is increasing among young injecting adults in NYC. An ancillary benefit from our results is an estimate of current IDUs aged 20-59 in NYC: 0.58% or 27,600 individuals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Prevalence and associated risk factors of latent tuberculosis infection in a Spanish prison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López de Goicoechea-Saiz, M E; Sternberg, F; Portilla-Sogorb, J

    2018-01-01

    To determine the prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection (LTI) in a Spanish prison, analyze the main sociodemographic and clinical variables associated with this condition and estimate the percentage of individuals with LTI who have received chemoprophylactic treatment. Cross-sectional study including inmates hosted in the Madrid VI Prison on 16/07/2016. Exclusion criteria: history of tuberculosis; non-updated tuberculin test according to the Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Program in Prisons protocol. Information of the variables was collected from SANIT and SIP programs, and by checking the clinical records of inmates. Description of the participant population and comparison between the frequency of distribution of the independent variables in LTI present and absent groups were performed, the last calculating the p value with Ji2 and Mann-Whitney U tests. Bivariate and multivariate analysis have been carried out with a logistic regression model. 936 individuals have been included. The prevalence of LTI in prison is 54.6%. This condition has been linked to the sociodemographic variables age, sex and nationality of origin, being age the one that has shown the strongest association. Among the other factors analyzed, only HCV infection behaves as a predictor of LTI. 30.3% of the individuals with LTI have completed or are receiving chemoprophylactic treatment in the moment of the study. LTI prevalence is high in the Spanish current prison population. The results of the study emphasize the relevance of the LTI screening in the prison setting, specially among high risk groups, and point out the need of a greater effort in the indication and completion of the chemoprophylactic treatment.

  17. Prevalence and associated risk factors of latent tuberculosis infection in a Spanish prison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ME López de Goicoechea-Saiz

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim: To determine the prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection (LTI in a Spanish prison, analyze the main sociodemographic and clinical variables associated with this condition and estimate the percentage of individuals with LTI who have received chemoprophylactic treatment. Materials and methods: Cross-sectional study including inmates hosted in the Madrid VI Prison on 16/07/2016. Exclusion criteria: history of tuberculosis; non-updated tuberculin test according to the Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Program in Prisons protocol. Information of the variables was collected from SANIT and SIP programs, and by checking the clinical records of inmates. Description of the participant population and comparison between the frequency of distribution of the independent variables in LTI present and absent groups were performed, the last calculating the p value with Ji2 and Mann-Whitney U tests. Bivariate and multivariate analysis have been carried out with a logistic regression model. Results: 936 individuals have been included. The prevalence of LTI in prison is 54.6%. This condition has been linked to the sociodemographic variables age, sex and nationality of origin, being age the one that has shown the strongest association. Among the other factors analyzed, only HCV infection behaves as a predictor of LTI. 30.3% of the individuals with LTI have completed or are receiving chemoprophylactic treatment in the moment of the study. Discussion: LTI prevalence is high in the Spanish current prison population. The results of the study emphasize the relevance of the LTI screening in the prison setting, specially among high risk groups, and point out the need of a greater effort in the indication and completion of the chemoprophylactic treatment.

  18. Prevalence and risk factors of obesity among practicing nurses at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The need to foster healthy lifestyle is essential in health profession and pertinent to prevent obesity and future morbidity and mortality associated with cardiovascular metabolic risk factors. Journal of Medical and Biomedical Sciences (2016) 5(3), 45-55. Keywords: Obesity, overweight, risk, practicing Nurses, Kumasi ...

  19. Prevalence And Risk Factors For Human Pappiloma Virus Infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Human Pappiloma Virus (HPV) infection is a disease of global public health importance, culminating into a high risk of cervical cancer. Most of the risk factors are modifiable, thus making HPV itself preventable. Efforts towards community HPV prevention and vaccination have not yielded the desired results, most especially ...

  20. Awareness and prevalence of metabolic syndrome among high-risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MetS) in high-risk individuals attending 30 internal medicine clinics in Amman, Jordan, and also to evaluate the various factors associated with increased risk of MetS among them. Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional study was carried out ...

  1. Superficial fungal infection: prevalence and risk factors among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Some of the factors which were significantly associated with the risk of acquisition of dermatophytic infections include age of the child, past history of similar lesion, over-crowding in the home, normal sweat pattern and badly smelling socks among others. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that several risk factors are ...

  2. Elite athletes' estimates of the prevalence of illicit drug use: evidence for the false consensus effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Matthew; Thomas, Johanna O; Swift, Wendy; Burns, Lucinda

    2012-01-01

    The false consensus effect (FCE) is the tendency for people to assume that others share their attitudes and behaviours to a greater extent than they actually do. The FCE has been demonstrated for a range of health behaviours, including substance use. The study aimed to explore the relationship between elite athlete's engagement in recreational drug use and their consensus estimates (the FCE) and to determine whether those who engage in the behaviour overestimate the use of others around them. The FCE was investigated among 974 elite Australian athletes who were classified according to their drug use history. Participants tended to report that there was a higher prevalence of drug use among athletes in general compared with athletes in their sport, and these estimates appeared to be influenced by participants' drug use history. While overestimation of drug use by participants was not common, this overestimation also appeared to be influenced by athletes' drug use history. The results suggest that athletes who have a history of illicit drug use overestimate the prevalence of drug use among athletes. These findings may be helpful in the formulation of normative education initiatives. © 2011 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  3. The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luis, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)

  4. Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, incidence, and residual transmission risk in first-time and repeat blood donations in Zimbabwe: implications on blood safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mapako, Tonderai; Mvere, David A; Chitiyo, McLeod E; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Postma, Maarten J; van Hulst, Marinus

    2013-10-01

    National Blood Service Zimbabwe human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk management strategy includes screening and discarding of first-time donations, which are collected in blood packs without an anticoagulant (dry pack). To evaluate the impact of discarding first-time donations on blood safety the HIV prevalence, incidence, and residual risk in first-time and repeat donations (wet packs) were compared. Donor data from 2002 to 2010 were retrieved from a centralized national electronic donor database and retrospectively analyzed. Chi-square test was used to compare HIV prevalence with relative risk (RR), and the RR point estimates and 95% confidence interval (CI) are reported. Trend analysis was done using Cochran-Armitage trend test. HIV residual risk estimates were determined using published residual risk estimation models. Over the 9 years the overall HIV prevalence estimates are 1.29% (n = 116,058) and 0.42% (n = 434,695) for first-time and repeat donations, respectively. The overall RR was 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9-3.3; p donations in first-time was 1:7384 (range, 1:11,308-1:5356) and in repeat donors it was 1:5496 (range, 1:9943-1:3347). The significantly high HIV prevalence estimates recorded in first-time over repeat donations is indicative of the effectiveness of the HIV risk management strategy. However, comparable residual transmission risk estimates in first-time and repeat donors point to the need to further review the risk management strategies. Given the potential wastage of valuable resources, future studies should focus on the cost-effectiveness and utility of screening and discarding first-time donations. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

  5. Prehypertension--prevalence, health risks, and management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egan, Brent M; Stevens-Fabry, Sean

    2015-05-01

    Prehypertension (blood pressure 120-139/80-89 mmHg) affects ~25-50% of adults worldwide, and increases the risk of incident hypertension. The relative risk of incident hypertension declines by ~20% with intensive lifestyle intervention, and by 34-66% with single antihypertensive medications. To prevent one case of incident hypertension in adults with prehypertension and a 50% 5-year risk of hypertension, 10 individuals would need to receive intensive lifestyle intervention, and four to six patients would need to be treated with antihypertensive medication. The relative risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) is greater with 'stage 2' (130-139/85-89 mmHg) than 'stage 1' (120-129/80-84 mmHg) prehypertension; only stage 2 prehypertension increases cardiovascular mortality. Among individuals with prehypertension, the 10-year absolute CVD risk for middle-aged adults without diabetes mellitus or CVD is ~10%, and ~40% for middle-aged and older individuals with either or both comorbidities. Antihypertensive medications reduce the relative risk of CVD and death by ~15% in secondary-prevention studies of prehypertension. Data on primary prevention of CVD with pharmacotherapy in prehypertension are lacking. Risk-stratified, patient-centred, comparative-effectiveness research is needed in prehypertension to inform an acceptable, safe, and effective balance of lifestyle and medication interventions to prevent incident hypertension and CVD.

  6. A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Paula Colette Kuypers

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased.A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases/sampling (controls. The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161 and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301 were included in the study.Main findings were that 1 alcohol in general (all the concentrations together caused an elevated crash risk; 2 cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3 when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives.The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

  7. Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, D.R.

    1980-01-01

    Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes

  8. Model dependencies of risk aversion and working interest estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    Working interest, W, and risk adjusted value, RAV, are evaluated using both Cozzolino's formula for exponential dependence of risk aversion and also for a hyperbolic tangent dependence. In addition, the general method is given of constructing an RAV formula for any functional choice of risk aversion dependence. Two examples are given to illustrate how the model dependencies influence choices of working interest and risk adjusted value depending on whether the expected value of the project is positive or negative. In general the Cozzolino formula provides a more conservative position for risk than does the hyperbolic tangent formula, reflecting the difference in corporate attitudes to risk aversion. The commonly used Cozzolino formula is shown to have simple exact arithmetic expressions for maximum working interest and maximum RAV; the hyperbolic tangent formula has approximate analytic expressions. Both formulae also yield approximate analytical expressions for the working interest yielding a risk neutral RAV of zero. These arithmetic results are useful for making quick estimates of working interest ranges and risk adjusted values. (Author)

  9. Socioeconomic Impact on the Prevalence of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Wallonia, Belgium: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streel, Sylvie; Donneau, Anne-Françoise; Hoge, Axelle; Majerus, Sven; Kolh, Philippe; Chapelle, Jean-Paul; Albert, Adelin; Guillaume, Michèle

    2015-01-01

    Background. Monitoring the epidemiology of cardiovascular risk factors (CRFs) and their determinants is important to develop appropriate recommendations to prevent cardiovascular diseases in specific risk groups. The NESCaV study was designed to collect standardized data to estimate the prevalence of CRFs in relation to socioeconomic parameters among the general adult population in the province of Liège, Wallonia, Belgium. Methods. A representative stratified random sample of 1017 subjects, aged 20-69 years, participated in the NESCaV study (2010-2012). A self-administered questionnaire, a clinical examination, and laboratory tests were performed on participants. CRFs included hypertension, dyslipidemia, global obesity, abdominal obesity, diabetes, current smoking, and physical inactivity. Covariates were education and subjective and objective socioeconomic levels. Data were analyzed by weighted logistic regression. Results. The prevalence of hypertension, abdominal obesity, global obesity, current smoking, and physical inactivity was higher in subjects with low education and who considered themselves "financially in need." Living below poverty threshold also increased the risk of global and abdominal obesity, current smoking, and physical inactivity. Conclusion. The study shows that socioeconomic factors impact the prevalence of CRFs in the adult population of Wallonia. Current public health policies should be adjusted to reduce health inequalities in specific risk groups.

  10. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section...

  11. Prevalence and risk factors of Hepatitis C virus infection in Brazil, 2005 through 2009: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pereira Leila MMB

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hepatitis C chronic liver disease is a major cause of liver transplant in developed countries. This article reports the first nationwide population-based survey conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of HCV antibodies and associated risk factors in the urban population of Brazil. Methods The cross sectional study was conducted in all Brazilian macro-regions from 2005 to 2009, as a stratified multistage cluster sample of 19,503 inhabitants aged between 10 and 69 years, representing individuals living in all 26 State capitals and the Federal District. Hepatitis C antibodies were detected by a third-generation enzyme immunoassay. Seropositive individuals were retested by Polymerase Chain Reaction and genotyped. Adjusted prevalence was estimated by macro-regions. Potential risk factors associated with HCV infection were assessed by calculating the crude and adjusted odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI and p values. Population attributable risk was estimated for multiple factors using a case–control approach. Results The overall weighted prevalence of hepatitis C antibodies was 1.38% (95% CI: 1.12%–1.64%. Prevalence of infection increased in older groups but was similar for both sexes. The multivariate model showed the following to be predictors of HCV infection: age, injected drug use (OR = 6.65, sniffed drug use (OR = 2.59, hospitalization (OR = 1.90, groups socially deprived by the lack of sewage disposal (OR = 2.53, and injection with glass syringe (OR = 1.52, with a borderline p value. The genotypes 1 (subtypes 1a, 1b, 2b and 3a were identified. The estimated population attributable risk for the ensemble of risk factors was 40%. Approximately 1.3 million individuals would be expected to be anti-HCV-positive in the country. Conclusions The large estimated absolute numbers of infected individuals reveals the burden of the disease in the near future, giving rise to costs for the health care

  12. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  13. Estimating the Risk of ABO Hemolytic Disease of the Newborn in Lagos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanmu, Alani Sulaimon; Oyedeji, Olufemi Abiola; Adeyemo, Titilope Adenike; Ogbenna, Ann Abiola

    2015-01-01

    Background. ABO hemolytic disease of the newborn is the most common hemolytic consequence of maternofetal blood group incompatibility restricted mostly to non-group-O babies of group O mothers with immune anti-A or anti-B antibodies. Aim. We estimated the risk of ABO HDN with view to determining need for routine screening for ABO incompatibility between mother and fetus. Materials and Methods. Prevalence of ABO blood group phenotypes in blood donors at the donor clinic of the Lagos University Teaching Hospital and arithmetic methods were used to determine population prevalence of ABO genes. We then estimated proportion of pregnancies of group O mothers carrying a non-group-O baby and the risk that maternofetal ABO incompatibility will cause clinical ABO HDN. Results. Blood from 9138 donors was ABO typed. 54.3%, 23%, 19.4%, and 3.3% were blood groups O, A, B, and AB, respectively. Calculated gene frequencies were 0.1416, 0.1209, and 0.7375 for A, B, and O genes, respectively. It was estimated that 14.3% of deliveries will result in a blood group O woman giving birth to a child who is non-group-O. Approximately 4.3% of deliveries are likely to suffer ABO HDN with 2.7% prone to suffer from moderately severe to severe hemolysis. PMID:26491605

  14. Prevalence and risk factors for dysphagia: a U.S. community study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, So Yang; Choung, Rok Seon; Saito, Yuri A.; Schleck, Cathy D; Zinsmeister, Alan R; Locke, G. Richard; Talley, Nicholas J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Dysphagia is considered an alarm symptom but detailed population-based data on dysphagia are lacking. We aimed to estimate in a representative US Caucasian population the prevalence of dysphagia and potential risk factors. Methods A modified version of the previously validated Bowel Disease Questionnaire was mailed to a population based cohort (n=7640) of Olmsted County, MN. Dysphagia was measured by one validated question “In the last year, how often have you had difficulty swallowing (a feeling that food sticks in your throat or chest)?” The medical records were reviewed for organic causes of dysphagia. The associations of reported frequency of dysphagia with potential risk factors were assessed using logistic regression models. Results The sex-specific, age-adjusted (US White 2000) prevalence for dysphagia experienced at least weekly was 3.0 % (95% CI: 2.2, 3.7) in females and 3.0 % (95% CI: 2.0, 4.0) in males. Those with frequent heartburn [OR=5.9 (4.0, 8.6)] and acid regurgitation [OR=10.6 (6.8, 16.6)] were significantly more likely to report frequent dysphagia. PPI use was significantly associated with frequent (3.1, 95% CI 2.2, 4.4) and infrequent dysphagia (1.5, 955 CI 1.3, 1.8). GERD was the most common diagnosis in those reporting dysphagia on the medical record; other organic explanations were rare and only found in the frequent dysphagia group. Conclusions Frequent dysphagia is not rare in the community (3%), occurs in both women and men across all adult age groups, and is most likely to indicate underlying GERD. PMID:25376877

  15. Prevalence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Al-Darwish

    2014-07-01

    Conclusion: Results indicated that dental caries prevalence among school children in Qatar has reached critical levels, and is influenced by socio-demographic factors. The mean decayed, missing, and filled teeth values obtained in this study were the second highest detected in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

  16. Prevalence of Helicobacter pylori and risk factors among dyspepsia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    unhcc

    It is also an important risk factor for the development of gastric cancer and mucosal associated lymphoid tissue. (MALT) lymphoma. ..... dyspepsia, methodological weaknesses, including low ... In the current finding, a significant association was.

  17. Prevalence of Helicobacter pylori and risk factors among dyspepsia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Helicobacter pylori antibody conjugated with colloid gold nitrocellulose membrane strip and a structured face-to-face interview was also administered to assess risk factors for H. pylori infection. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. Logistic ...

  18. Prevalence and awareness of hypertension and associated risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MJP

    2015-12-12

    Dec 12, 2015 ... 17.7%.[9] However, among bankers in Ilorin, North. Central Nigeria, the ..... none took alcohol perhaps due to religious injunctions but smoking ... treatment, control and risk factors of hypertension in Korea: the Ansan study. J.

  19. Methods for estimating risks to nuclear power plants from shipping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, D.H.; Hartman, M.G.; Robbins, T.R.

    1975-01-01

    Nuclear power plants sited on land near shipping lanes or offshore can be exposed to potential risks if there is nearby ship or barge traffic which involves the transport of hazardous cargo. Methods that have been developed for estimating the degree of risk are summarized. Of concern are any accidents which could lead to a release or spill of the hazardous cargo, or to an explosion. A probability of occurrence of the order of 10 -7 per year is a general guideline which has been used to judge whether or not the risk from hazards created by accidents is acceptable. This guideline has been followed in the risk assessment discussed in this paper. 19 references

  20. Prevalence of Coronary Risk Factors among Population Aged 35 Years and Above From Rural Maharashtra, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhishek Singh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is predicted that cardiovascular diseases will be the most important cause of mortality in India by the year 2015. Since the key to combating the increased incidence of coronary artery disease (CAD is the control of known risk factors by a population based strategy aimed at comprehensive risk reduction, it is pertinent to study the magnitude of the risk. Aim: The present study was therefore conducted to assess the prevalence of certain coronary risk factors among rural population aged 35 years and above in Maharashtra. Methods: The present community based cross sectional survey was carried out in the rural area of Pune district on 272 subjects using a structured questionnaire, clinical examination followed by lab investigations. SPSS version 17.0 was used for analysis. Results: Tobacco consumption was found to be prevalent in 51.83% of the study subjects followed by physical inactivity which was prevalent among 31.61% whereas high diastolic blood pressure was found to be prevalent in 29.41% of the study subjects. Obesity and alcohol consumption were found to be prevalent among 13.97% of the study subjects. Among the biochemical parameters studied, hypertriglyceridemia was found to be prevalent in 22.05% followed by raised fasting blood sugar in 15.44% of the study subjects. Conclusion: Behaviour change communication strategies targeting these modifiable known high risk factors need to be emphasized to lower coronary heart disease (CHD related morbidity burden in the community.

  1. The prevalence of diagnosed chronic conditions and multimorbidity in Australia: A method for estimating population prevalence from general practice patient encounter data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Harrison

    Full Text Available To estimate the prevalence of common chronic conditions and multimorbidity among patients at GP encounters and among people in the Australian population. To assess the extent to which use of each individual patient's GP attendance over the previous year, instead of the average for their age-sex group, affects the precision of national population prevalence estimates of diagnosed chronic conditions.A sub-study (between November 2012 and March 2016 of the Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health program, a continuous national study of GP activity. Each of 1,449 GPs provided data for about 30 consecutive patients (total 43,501 indicating for each, number of GP attendances in previous year and all diagnosed chronic conditions, using their knowledge of the patient, patient self-report, and patient's health record.Hypertension (26.5% was the most prevalent diagnosed chronic condition among patients surveyed, followed by osteoarthritis (22.7%, hyperlipidaemia (16.6%, depression (16.3%, anxiety (11.9%, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GORD (11.3%, chronic back pain (9.7% and Type 2 diabetes (9.6%. After adjustment, we estimated population prevalence of hypertension as 12.4%, 9.5% osteoarthritis, 8.2% hyperlipidaemia, 8.0% depression, 5.8% anxiety and 5.2% asthma. Estimates were significantly lower than those derived using the previous method. About half (51.6% the patients at GP encounters had two or more diagnosed chronic conditions and over one third (37.4% had three or more. Population estimates were: 25.7% had two or more diagnosed chronic conditions and 15.8% had three or more.Of the three approaches we have tested to date, this study provides the most accurate method for estimation of population prevalence of chronic conditions using the GP as an expert interviewer, by adjusting for each patient's reported attendance.

  2. Estimating the prevalence of 26 health-related indicators at neighbourhood level in the Netherlands using structured additive regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Kassteele, Jan; Zwakhals, Laurens; Breugelmans, Oscar; Ameling, Caroline; van den Brink, Carolien

    2017-07-01

    Local policy makers increasingly need information on health-related indicators at smaller geographic levels like districts or neighbourhoods. Although more large data sources have become available, direct estimates of the prevalence of a health-related indicator cannot be produced for neighbourhoods for which only small samples or no samples are available. Small area estimation provides a solution, but unit-level models for binary-valued outcomes that can handle both non-linear effects of the predictors and spatially correlated random effects in a unified framework are rarely encountered. We used data on 26 binary-valued health-related indicators collected on 387,195 persons in the Netherlands. We associated the health-related indicators at the individual level with a set of 12 predictors obtained from national registry data. We formulated a structured additive regression model for small area estimation. The model captured potential non-linear relations between the predictors and the outcome through additive terms in a functional form using penalized splines and included a term that accounted for spatially correlated heterogeneity between neighbourhoods. The registry data were used to predict individual outcomes which in turn are aggregated into higher geographical levels, i.e. neighbourhoods. We validated our method by comparing the estimated prevalences with observed prevalences at the individual level and by comparing the estimated prevalences with direct estimates obtained by weighting methods at municipality level. We estimated the prevalence of the 26 health-related indicators for 415 municipalities, 2599 districts and 11,432 neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. We illustrate our method on overweight data and show that there are distinct geographic patterns in the overweight prevalence. Calibration plots show that the estimated prevalences agree very well with observed prevalences at the individual level. The estimated prevalences agree reasonably well with the

  3. Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

    2017-02-01

    The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

  4. Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 2. Risk estimates of individuals from x-ray diagnosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T; Noda, Y; Iwai, K; Tateno, Y [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Nishizawa, K

    1981-01-01

    The risks of genetic, leukemia and malignant diseases from medical X-ray diagnostic examinations were estimated using the frequency of radiographic and fluoroscopic exposures per diagnostic examination, child expectancy, leukemia and malignancy significant factors, and using a weighting factor determined on the basis of data concerning the cancer mortality among atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki and of a recommendation of International Commission of Radiological Protection. The organ or tissue doses with respect to the stochastic risks were determined with ionization chambers and thermoluminescent dosimeters placed at the positions of the organs or tissues in a RANDO woman phantom which was exposed to diagnostic X-rays according to technical factors of typical radiographic and fluoroscopic examinations obtained from a nationwide survey. The resultant risks by age-group and type of radiographic and fluoroscopic examination are tabulated in terms of risk level of 10/sup -6/. In general, the total risk defined as the sum of genetic, leukemia and malignant risks was a high value for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs involving barium meal and barium enema. For example, the total risk for young age-group was 100 to 200 x 10/sup -6/ for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk from the chest radiography was lower value as compared with the risk from the X-ray diagnosis of other organs or tissues. On the contrary, the risk from the chest tomography was comparable to the risk from the diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk decreased with increasing of age for every X-ray diagnostic examination.

  5. Prevalence of and risk factors for violent disciplinary practices at home in Viet Nam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappa, Claudia; Dam, Hang

    2014-02-01

    Data on parenting practices and the use of violence in child rearing remain scarce worldwide, hindering prevention efforts. This study examines disciplinary methods used on children at home in Viet Nam. It is based on data collected from 2010 to 2011 through the fourth round of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS4)-a household survey program supported by the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) that focuses on women and children in low- and middle-income countries. Respondents in the survey were asked 11 questions relating to disciplinary measures used in the preceding month on one randomly selected child (2-14 years old) in each household. A final question about attitudes probed adults' views on the need for physical punishment in child rearing. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to estimate the prevalence of violent and nonviolent forms of discipline, and to identify risk factors associated with violent punishment. Results showed that three in four children in Viet Nam are disciplined through violent means. The exposure of Vietnamese children to violent forms of discipline was significantly associated with varied characteristics of both children and their caregivers. Moreover, the use of violent disciplinary practices on children was strongly associated with positive attitudes toward corporal punishment. Risk factors for violent child discipline identified in this study can inform future interventions to promote positive practices and to protect Vietnamese children against violence in the home.

  6. Radiation-Induced Second Cancer Risk Estimates From Radionuclide Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarz, Bryan; Besemer, Abigail

    2017-09-01

    The use of radionuclide therapy in the clinical setting is expected to increase significantly over the next decade. There is an important need to understand the radiation-induced second cancer risk associated with these procedures. In this study the radiation-induced cancer risk in five radionuclide therapy patients was investigated. These patients underwent serial SPECT imaging scans following injection as part of a clinical trial testing the efficacy of a 131Iodine-labeled radiopharmaceutical. Using these datasets the committed absorbed doses to multiple sensitive structures were calculated using RAPID, which is a novel Monte Carlo-based 3D dosimetry platform developed for personalized dosimetry. The excess relative risk (ERR) for radiation-induced cancer in these structures was then derived from these dose estimates following the recommendations set forth in the BEIR VII report. The radiation-induced leukemia ERR was highest among all sites considered reaching a maximum value of approximately 4.5. The radiation-induced cancer risk in the kidneys, liver and spleen ranged between 0.3 and 1.3. The lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were also calculated, which ranged from 30 to 1700 cancers per 100,000 persons and were highest for leukemia and the liver for both males and females followed by radiation-induced spleen and kidney cancer. The risks associated with radionuclide therapy are similar to the risk associated with external beam radiation therapy.

  7. [Prevalence of cardiovascular diseases and cardiovascular risk factors in older than 65 years persons in an urban area: DERIVA study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Sánchez, Emiliano; García-Ortiz, Luis; Gómez-Marcos, Manuel A; Recio-Rodríguez, José I; Mora-Simón, Sara; Pérez-Arechaederra, Diana; Agudo-Conde, Cristina; Escribano-Hernández, Alfonso; Patino-Alonso, María C

    2013-01-01

    To estimate the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases, cardiovascular risk factors, and the psychosocial characteristics associated with them in an urban population aged 65 years and older. Descriptive cross-sectional study of the population. City of Salamanca (Spain). A total of 480 participants aged 65 and older were selected using a stratified randomized sampling method. A health questionnaire was completed in the participants' homes. Weight, height, waist circumference, arterial pressure, blood glucose and cholesterol, were measured, and the standardized prevalence for a European population was estimated. A total of 327 participants were interviewed (68.10% of those selected), mean age of participants was 76 (SD: 7.33). Of the total, 64.5% were women and 20.2% (15.8-24.5) had some cardiovascular disease. In males, the most prevalent cardiovascular disease was ischemic heart disease (12.1% [6.1-18]), while in females it was heart failure (10.4% [6.3-14.6]). Hypertension was the most frequent cardiovascular risk factor for males (63.8% [53.2-70.9]) and females (69.7%.[63.5-75.9]), followed by diabetes in males (36.2% [27.5-45]), and sedentary lifestyle in females (36.0% [29.5-42.5]). Those with cardiovascular diseases were more dependent and had a worse prognosis (Charlson's Comorbility Index). Ischemic heart disease is the most prevalent heart disease in males, while heart failure is the most prevalent disease for females. Almost 80% of the population aged 65 and older did not suffer any of the three cardiovascular diseases that are the main causes of mortality in this group of age. Participants who had a CVD were more dependent for activities of daily living. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  8. Prevalence and risk factors of ticks infesting cattle reared on the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    risk factors among cattle reared on dairy, beef and free-range grazing farms of Haramaya University .... guidelines using gross and stereomicroscopic examination. .... with the risk and differences in the farm management systems, prevalence of ... tick genera combinations infested animals with diversified tick genera in Ha-.

  9. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Adolescents Smoking: Difference Between Korean and Korean-Chinese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SoonBok E. Park, RN, PhD

    2011-09-01

    Conclusion: These results highlight the differences of smoking prevalence and risk factors between Korean-Chinese students and Korean students. The findings may help health educators and researchers to better understand adolescent smoking and risk factors cross culturally and aid in the development of more effective education programs, which could lead to preventing tobacco use among these populations.

  10. Prevalence of and risk factors for retinopathy of prematurity in a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Twenty-four previously reported risk factors for the development of ROP were identified for use in a multivariate logistic regression (MLR) analysis. Results. A total of 356 patients were included. The overall prevalence of ROP was 21.8% and that of clinically significant ROP (CSROP) 4.4%. The risk factors with a statistically ...

  11. Prevalence and Risk Factors for Mycobacterium bovis Infection in African Lions ( Panthera leo ) in the Kruger National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylvester, Tashnica Taime; Martin, Laura Elizabeth Rosen; Buss, Peter; Loxton, Andre Gareth; Hausler, Guy Anton; Rossouw, Leana; van Helden, Paul; Parsons, Sven David Charles; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Miller, Michele Ann

    2017-04-01

    Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (BTB), is endemic in the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. African lions ( Panthera leo ) are susceptible to BTB, but the impact of the disease on lion populations is unknown. In this study, we used a novel gene expression assay for chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 9 (CXCL9) to measure the prevalence of M. bovis infection in 70 free-ranging lions that were opportunistically sampled in the southern and central regions of the KNP. In the southern region of the KNP, the apparent prevalence of M. bovis infection was 54% (95% confidence interval [CI]=36.9-70.5%), compared with 33% (95% CI=18.0-51.8%) in the central region, an important difference (P=0.08). Prevalence of M. bovis infection in lions showed similar patterns to estimated BTB prevalence in African buffaloes ( Syncerus caffer ) in the same areas. Investigation of other risk factors showed a trend for older lions, males, or lions with concurrent feline immunodeficiency virus infection to have a higher M. bovis prevalence. Our findings demonstrate that the CXCL9 gene expression assay is a useful tool for the determination of M. bovis status in free-ranging lions and identifies important epidemiologic trends for future studies.

  12. Estimation of the prevalence and rate of acute transfusion reactions occurring in Windhoek, Namibia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meza, Benjamin P.L.; Lohrke, Britta; Wilkinson, Robert; Pitman, John P.; Shiraishi, Ray W.; Bock, Naomi; Lowrance, David W.; Kuehnert, Matthew J.; Mataranyika, Mary; Basavaraju, Sridhar V.

    2014-01-01

    Background Acute transfusion reactions are probably common in sub-Saharan Africa, but transfusion reaction surveillance systems have not been widely established. In 2008, the Blood Transfusion Service of Namibia implemented a national acute transfusion reaction surveillance system, but substantial under-reporting was suspected. We estimated the actual prevalence and rate of acute transfusion reactions occurring in Windhoek, Namibia. Methods The percentage of transfusion events resulting in a reported acute transfusion reaction was calculated. Actual percentage and rates of acute transfusion reactions per 1,000 transfused units were estimated by reviewing patients’ records from six hospitals, which transfuse >99% of all blood in Windhoek. Patients’ records for 1,162 transfusion events occurring between 1st January – 31st December 2011 were randomly selected. Clinical and demographic information were abstracted and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Healthcare Safety Network criteria were applied to categorize acute transfusion reactions1. Results From January 1 – December 31, 2011, there were 3,697 transfusion events (involving 10,338 blood units) in the selected hospitals. Eight (0.2%) acute transfusion reactions were reported to the surveillance system. Of the 1,162 transfusion events selected, medical records for 785 transfusion events were analysed, and 28 acute transfusion reactions were detected, of which only one had also been reported to the surveillance system. An estimated 3.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.3–4.4) of transfusion events in Windhoek resulted in an acute transfusion reaction, with an estimated rate of 11.5 (95% CI: 7.6–14.5) acute transfusion reactions per 1,000 transfused units. Conclusion The estimated actual rate of acute transfusion reactions is higher than the rate reported to the national haemovigilance system. Improved surveillance and interventions to reduce transfusion-related morbidity and mortality

  13. Brucellosis in a high risk occupational group: sero prevalence and analysis of risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukhtar, F.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: To estimate Brucella sero positivity among slaughterhouse workers of Lahore district and to elucidate risk factors associated with sero positivity to Brucella. Method: During the year 2008, a cross-sectional study was conducted in four slaughterhouses of Lahore district. A sample of 360 workers was selected from these slaughterhouses through stratified random sampling on proportional basis. Workers were interviewed using a structured questionnaire to obtain risk factor information and their blood samples were collected to be screened for the presence of anti-Brucella IgG using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) technique. Data management and analysis were performed using SPSS (statistical package for social sciences) version 16. Risk factors associated with sero positivity to anti-Brucella IgG were identified by constructing a logistic regression model. Results: Of the 360 serum samples tested, 21.7% (95% CI 17.44% - 25.96%) were positive by ELISA test. The logistic regression model identified age (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.99), assistance in parturition of animal (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.23-0.96), consuming raw milk (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.04-4.87) and handling sheep (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.09- 0.92) as risk factors for Brucella sero positivity among slaughterhouse workers of Lahore district. Conclusion: To reduce the burden of brucellosis, a national brucellosis control programme should be initiated with special emphasis on the high risk population of slaughterhouse workers. (author)

  14. prevalence and risk factors among secondary school students in Ido ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-09-03

    Sep 3, 2017 ... Male gender, having friends who engaged in sexual activities had association with early ... es young people's risk of infection with HIV and other ..... the influence of alcohol; almost a quarter, 12(20.3%), said .... Desire to win.

  15. Short communication Prevalence and risk factors of bovine mastitis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    risk factors of mastitis in dairy cows from November, 2012 to July, 2013 in Ambo town of West Shewa ... was made on all lactating cows for evidence of signs of clinical mastitis followed ... In Ethiopia, even if it is not well established, several studies in various parts of ..... Mastitis and genetic evaluation for somatic cell count. In ...

  16. Prevalence and risk factors of hepatitis B virus transmission among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-03-26

    Mar 26, 2015 ... accessing infants through pre-existing vaccine delivery systems and vaccinating individuals prior to their engag- ing in high risk behaviours14,15. Next is the use of antivi- ral drugs such as lamivudine, tenofovir, ribavirin etc. Then the .... intramuscular injections for one reason or the other as is depicted in ...

  17. Knowledge and prevalence of risk factors for arterial hypertension ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: High job strain, mental stress, sedentary lifestyle, increase in BMI are among the factors associated with significantly higher incidence of hypertension. The job of bank employees is both sedentary in nature and accompanies high mental stress. The aim of this study is to assess the level of knowledge of risk ...

  18. Prevalence and risk factors of diabetes mellitus foot syndrome ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Diabetic foot problems are common throughout the world, resulting in major economic consequences for the patients, their families, and thesociety. Diabetic foot ulcers are largely preventable by identifying people at risk of ulceration throughexamination of the feet, education and frequent follow-up of these ...

  19. Trachoma Prevalence and Risk Factors in Eight Local Government ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A regression analysis, however, showed that only access to latrine and knowledge of trachoma prevention remained significantly protective (OR < 1, P < 0.05). Conclusion: The risk factors for trachoma are endemic in the study areas, and active control measures are needed. The burden of the disease is, however, clustered ...

  20. Chronic Post Inguinal Herniorraphy Pain: Prevalence and Risk Factors

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Inguinal hernia is a common surgical condition. Whereas complications associated with hernia repair are well documented, chronic postoperative groin pain has received less attention. Objective: To review the frequency and associated risk factors for chronic post herniorrhaphy groin pain at a tertiary urban ...

  1. Prevalence and risk factors of arternal hypertension among urban ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thus there is a need to screen urban central Africans at workplace for environmental risk factors of hypertension. Method: A cross-sectional survey was conducted at the Kinshasa National Company of Electricity. A representative sample of 333 employees was screened. Tobacco, alcohol use and level of physical activity ...

  2. Prevalence and risk factors of low back pain among undergraduate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conclusion: LBP is frequent among undergraduate students of a sports and physical education institute in Tunisia. It is strongly associated with fatigue after the long periods of training in different sports. Gymnastics, judo, handball, and volleyball were identified as high-risk sports for causing LBP. Keywords: low back pain; ...

  3. Overweight or obesity prevalence, trends and risk factors among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using multivariable logistic regression analysis in the full model, the area of residence, wealth, religion and the number of household members were found to be significantly associated with being overweight/obese. In the adjusted model only the first three of these were still associated with a significantly increased risk.

  4. Women in Saudi Arabia and the Prevalence of Cardiovascular Risk Factors: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alshaikh, Mashael K; Filippidis, Filippos T; Baldove, Juren P; Majeed, Azeem; Rawaf, Salman

    2016-01-01

    Background . Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the leading causes of death in Saudi Arabia. Saudi women in particular are more susceptible as there are sociocultural restrictions on female physical activities that may lead to high prevalence of CVD risks, especially obesity, and physical inactivity. This study aims to systematically review the published articles related to the prevalence of CVD risk among women in Saudi Arabia. The search strategy covers all published articles that assess the risk factor of CVD in Saudi Arabia from January 2000 to December 2015, using the following sources: Medline, Embase, and PsycINFO. A total of 61 studies were included. Results. Prevalence among Saudi women of smoking ranged from 1.1% to 9.1%, hypertension was 21.8%, diabetes ranged from 9.6% to 27.6%, overweight was 27%, and obesity was 40.23%, and physical inactivity ranged from 53.2% to 98.1%. Hypercholesterolemia prevalence on Saudi women on average was 24.5%, while metabolic syndrome ranged from 13.6% to 40.3%. Conclusion . The prevalence of CVD risk factors is high among women in Saudi Arabia especially in obesity and physical inactivity. Public health authorities must implement solutions from a gender specific aspect to reverse the trend and decrease the prevalence of CVDs among Saudi women.

  5. Predicting high risk births with contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method-mix in an ecologic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perin, Jamie; Amouzou, Agbessi; Walker, Neff

    2017-11-07

    Increased contraceptive use has been associated with a decrease in high parity births, births that occur close together in time, and births to very young or to older women. These types of births are also associated with high risk of under-five mortality. Previous studies have looked at the change in the level of contraception use and the average change in these types of high-risk births. We aim to predict the distribution of births in a specific country when there is a change in the level and method of modern contraception. We used data from full birth histories and modern contraceptive use from 207 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys covering 71 countries to describe the distribution of births in each survey based on birth order, preceding birth space, and mother's age at birth. We estimated the ecologic associations between the prevalence and method-mix of modern contraceptives and the proportion of births in each category. Hierarchical modelling was applied to these aggregated cross sectional proportions, so that random effects were estimated for countries with multiple surveys. We use these results to predict the change in type of births associated with scaling up modern contraception in three different scenarios. We observed marked differences between regions, in the absolute rates of contraception, the types of contraceptives in use, and in the distribution of type of birth. Contraceptive method-mix was a significant determinant of proportion of high-risk births, especially for birth spacing, but also for mother's age and parity. Increased use of modern contraceptives is especially predictive of reduced parity and more births with longer preceding space. However, increased contraception alone is not associated with fewer births to women younger than 18 years or a decrease in short-spaced births. Both the level and the type of contraception are important factors in determining the effects of family planning on changes in distribution of

  6. Predicting high risk births with contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method-mix in an ecologic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie Perin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Increased contraceptive use has been associated with a decrease in high parity births, births that occur close together in time, and births to very young or to older women. These types of births are also associated with high risk of under-five mortality. Previous studies have looked at the change in the level of contraception use and the average change in these types of high-risk births. We aim to predict the distribution of births in a specific country when there is a change in the level and method of modern contraception. Methods We used data from full birth histories and modern contraceptive use from 207 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys covering 71 countries to describe the distribution of births in each survey based on birth order, preceding birth space, and mother’s age at birth. We estimated the ecologic associations between the prevalence and method-mix of modern contraceptives and the proportion of births in each category. Hierarchical modelling was applied to these aggregated cross sectional proportions, so that random effects were estimated for countries with multiple surveys. We use these results to predict the change in type of births associated with scaling up modern contraception in three different scenarios. Results We observed marked differences between regions, in the absolute rates of contraception, the types of contraceptives in use, and in the distribution of type of birth. Contraceptive method-mix was a significant determinant of proportion of high-risk births, especially for birth spacing, but also for mother’s age and parity. Increased use of modern contraceptives is especially predictive of reduced parity and more births with longer preceding space. However, increased contraception alone is not associated with fewer births to women younger than 18 years or a decrease in short-spaced births. Conclusions Both the level and the type of contraception are important factors in

  7. 10-year prevalence of contact allergy in the general population in Denmark estimated through the CE-DUR method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Uter, Wolfgang; Schnuch, Axel

    2007-01-01

    case') assumptions were based on patch test reading data in combination with an estimate of the number of persons eligible for patch testing each year based on sales data of the 'standard series'. The estimated 10-year prevalence of contact allergy ranged between 7.3% and 12.9% for adult Danes older...

  8. Prevalence and risk factors for osteopenia/osteoporosis in an HIV-infected male population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomazic, Janez; Ul, Katja; Volcansek, Gabriele; Gorensek, Samo; Pfeifer, Misa; Karner, Primoz; Prezelj, Janez; Vidmar, Gaj; Vidmar, Ludvik

    2007-01-01

    The objective of our investigation was to estimate the prevalence of osteopenia/osteoporosis in men with HIV/AIDS and evaluate the role of antiretroviral treatment (ART), HIV and other risk factors in reducing bone mineral density (BMD). All known Slovenian HIV-infected ART-naïve and treated males (infected or treated > 12 months) were invited to participate in a cross-sectional study. Data were collected on age, BMI, waist-hip ratio, family history of hip fracture, duration of infection, duration of ART, smoking, alcohol, exercise, viral load and CD4+ cells. BMD was measured using dual X-ray absorptiometry. A total of 96 patients (out of 133 who fulfilled the inclusion criteria) were assessed and allocated into three groups: group A (n = 24), ART-naïve; group B1 (n = 37), treated with non-protease-inhibitor (PI) containing ART; and group B2 (n = 35), treated with PI-containing ART. The prevalence of osteopenia/osteoporosis was 57/96 (59%): osteopenia 45/96 (47%) and osteoporosis 12/96 (12%). Significantly lower BMD was detected in group A (P = 0.020). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed ART to be an independent negative predictor for reduced BMD (P = 0.037; OR = 0.29, 95%CI 0.09-0.93). Vitamin D(3) deficiency was detected in 79 (82%) of the patients. The study group represented 72% of the national HIV-infected male population; this proportion being higher than in any other study reported to date. The prevalence of reduced BMD was notably higher than the national prevalence among men of comparable age. There was no association between reduced BMD and any specific ART. According to our results, absence of ART was confirmed as an independent predictor of osteopenia/osteoporosis. Targeted screening and early treatment present a reasonable strategy for preventing reduced BMD in HIV-infected patients, but correcting vitamin D(3) levels could also be an important component.

  9. Metabolic disorders in dairy Simmentals - prevalence risk and effect on subsequent daily milk traits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesna Gantner

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to analyse metabolic disorders in Simmental cows, 2.641.223 test-day records have been used. The metabolic disorders prevalence risk was indicated by the fat to protein (F/P ratio, while the subclinical disorder was demonstrated using the F/P ratio and daily production. In terms of the ketosis prevalence risk (KPR, the highest prevalence risks occurred at the 20th lactation day in all tested cows with exception of cows in parity P4+ which experienced peak prevalence risk at 25th lactation day. A steady decrease of KPR after peak prevalence was observed in all animals except the 3rd lactation cows which experienced the second peak prevalence at the 30th lactation day, after which the prevalence risk continued to decline. The highest acidosis prevalence risk (APR was detected among 4+ parity cows. Considering the lactation stage, the highest APR occurred within the first 10 days, with the indication from 16 to 23 %, depending on parity. The peak prevalence risk was followed by a considerable decline during the ensuing 20 days. The prevalence risk began to increase among all cows after the 25th lactation day. Furthermore, there was a considerable decrease in a daily milk yield and variation of daily milk contents due to subclinical disorders. The most noticeable drop in daily milk yield, for both ketosis/acidosis, was detected in cows in 4+ parity in the amounts of 7.45 kg/day and 2.73 kg/day respectively. There was also a production decline in the subsequent milk controls. Subclinical disorders can also substantially change daily milk contents. The daily fat content was considerably reduced by the subclinical ketosis and the same parameter was considerably increased by the subclinical acidosis. The opposite trends were detected for daily protein content. Since indication criteria was set on Holstein population and considering the fact that Simmental cows produce noticeably less, some adjustment is needed before a routine use of test

  10. Intimate partner violence among African American and African Caribbean women: prevalence, risk factors, and the influence of cultural attitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamila K. Stockman

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Women of African descent are disproportionately affected by intimate partner abuse; yet, limited data exist on whether the prevalence varies for women of African descent in the United States and those in the US territories. Objective: In this multisite study, we estimated lifetime and 2-year prevalence of physical, sexual, and psychological intimate partner abuse (IPA among 1,545 women of African descent in the United States and US Virgin Islands (USVI. We also examined how cultural tolerance of physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence (IPV influences abuse. Design: Between 2009 and 2011, we recruited African American and African Caribbean women aged 18–55 from health clinics in Baltimore, MD, and St. Thomas and St. Croix, USVI, into a comparative case-control study. Screened and enrolled women completed an audio computer-assisted self-interview. Screening-based prevalence of IPA and IPV were stratified by study site and associations between tolerance of IPV and abuse experiences were examined by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results: Most of the 1,545 screened women were young, of low-income, and in a current intimate relationship. Lifetime prevalence of IPA was 45% in St. Thomas, 38% in St. Croix, and 37% in Baltimore. Lifetime prevalence of IPV was 38% in St. Thomas, 28% in St. Croix, and 30% in Baltimore. Past 2-year prevalence of IPV was 32% in St. Thomas, 22% in St. Croix, and 26% in Baltimore. Risk and protective factors for IPV varied by site. Community and personal acceptance of IPV were independently associated with lifetime IPA in Baltimore and St. Thomas. Conclusions: Variance across sites for risk and protective factors emphasizes cultural considerations in sub-populations of women of African descent when addressing IPA and IPV in given settings. Individual-based interventions should be coupled with community/societal interventions to shape attitudes about use of violence in relationships and to

  11. High HIV Prevalence and Risk Among Male Clients of Female Sex Workers in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadol, Patrick; Hoang, Tran Vu; Le, Linh-Vi; Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Kaldor, John; Law, Matthew

    2017-08-01

    In Vietnam's concentrated HIV epidemic, female sex workers (FSWs) are at increased risk for acquiring and transmitting HIV, largely through their male clients. A high proportion of males in Vietnam report being clients of FSWs. Studying HIV-related risk factors and prevalence among male clients is important, particularly given the potential for male clients to be a 'bridge' of HIV transmission to the more general population or to sex workers. Time-location sampling was used to identify FSW in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's largest cities, in 2013-2014. Recruited FSWs were asked to refer one male client to the study. Demographic and risk behavior data were collected from FSWs and male clients by administered questionnaires. Biologic specimens collected from male clients were tested for HIV and opiates. Sampling weights, calculated based on the FSWs probability of being selected for enrolment, were applied to prevalence estimates for both FSWs and male clients. Logistic regression models were developed to obtain odds ratios for HIV infection among male clients. A total of 804 male clients were enrolled. Overall, HIV prevalence among male clients was 10.2%; HIV prevalence was 20.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 15.0-27.9%) among those reporting a history of illegal drug use and 32.4% (95% CI 20.2-47.7%) among those with opioids detected in urine. HIV prevalence among male clients did not differ across 'bridging' categories defined by condom use with FSWs and regular partners over the previous 6 months. HIV among male clients was associated with a reported history of illegal drug use (OR 3.76; 95% CI 1.87-7.56), current opioid use (OR 2.55; 95% CI 1.02-6.36), and being referred by an FSW who self-reported as HIV-positive (OR 5.37; 95% CI 1.46-19.75). Self-reported HIV prevalence among enrolled FSWs was 2.8%. Based on HIV test results of male clients and self-reported status from FSWs, an estimated 12.1% of male client-FSW pairs were sero-discordant. These

  12. Prevalence of Multiple Chronic Conditions Among US Adults: Estimates From the National Health Interview Survey, 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiller, Jeannine S.

    2013-01-01

    Preventing and ameliorating chronic conditions has long been a priority in the United States; however, the increasing recognition that people often have multiple chronic conditions (MCC) has added a layer of complexity with which to contend. The objective of this study was to present the prevalence of MCC and the most common MCC dyads/triads by selected demographic characteristics. We used respondent-reported data from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to study the US adult civilian noninstitutionalized population aged 18 years or older (n = 27,157). We categorized adults as having 0 to 1, 2 to 3, or 4 or more of the following chronic conditions: hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cancer, arthritis, hepatitis, weak or failing kidneys, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or current asthma. We then generated descriptive estimates and tested for significant differences. Twenty-six percent of adults have MCC; the prevalence of MCC has increased from 21.8% in 2001 to 26.0% in 2010. The prevalence of MCC significantly increased with age, was significantly higher among women than men and among non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black adults than Hispanic adults. The most common dyad identified was arthritis and hypertension, and the combination of arthritis, hypertension, and diabetes was the most common triad. The findings of this study contribute information to the field of MCC research. The NHIS can be used to identify population subgroups most likely to have MCC and potentially lead to clinical guidelines for people with more common MCC combinations. PMID:23618545

  13. Integrating environmental and self-report data to refine cannabis prevalence estimates in a major urban area of Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Been, Frederic; Schneider, Christian; Zobel, Frank; Delémont, Olivier; Esseiva, Pierre

    2016-10-01

    Cannabis consumption is a topical subject because of discussions about reviewing current regulations. In this context, having a more comprehensive approach to assess and monitor prevalence and consumption is highly relevant. The objective of this work was to refine current estimates about prevalence of cannabis use by combining self-report data and results derived from wastewater analysis. Self-report data was retrieved from surveys conducted in Switzerland and Europe. Wastewater samples were collected at the wastewater treatment plant of Lausanne, western Switzerland, over a 15 months period. The occurrence of 11-nor-9-carboxy-delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH), a specific metabolite of delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), was monitored. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate consumption, prevalence and number of cannabis users in the investigated area. According to survey data, 12-months prevalence in western Switzerland was estimated to 6.2% of the population aged 15 or older, with an estimated daily cannabis consumption of 8.1gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1) (at 11.2% purity). The integrative model comprising self-report and wastewater data substantially reduced the uncertainty in the estimates and suggested a last-year prevalence of 9.4%, with a daily cannabis consumption of 14.0gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1). Although in the same order of magnitude, consumption and prevalence estimates obtained with the integrative model were 78% and 52% higher compared to self-report figures, respectively. Interestingly, these figures are similar to discrepancies observed when comparing self-reported alcohol consumption and sales or tax data. The suggested integrative model allowed to account for known sources of uncertainty and provided refined estimates of cannabis prevalence in a major urban area of Switzerland. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Estimating wildfire risk on a Mojave Desert landscape using remote sensing and field sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Linn, Peter F.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; DeFalco, Lesley A.; Inman, Richard D.; Abella, Scott R.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting wildfires that affect broad landscapes is important for allocating suppression resources and guiding land management. Wildfire prediction in the south-western United States is of specific concern because of the increasing prevalence and severe effects of fire on desert shrublands and the current lack of accurate fire prediction tools. We developed a fire risk model to predict fire occurrence in a north-eastern Mojave Desert landscape. First we developed a spatial model using remote sensing data to predict fuel loads based on field estimates of fuels. We then modelled fire risk (interactions of fuel characteristics and environmental conditions conducive to wildfire) using satellite imagery, our model of fuel loads, and spatial data on ignition potential (lightning strikes and distance to roads), topography (elevation and aspect) and climate (maximum and minimum temperatures). The risk model was developed during a fire year at our study landscape and validated at a nearby landscape; model performance was accurate and similar at both sites. This study demonstrates that remote sensing techniques used in combination with field surveys can accurately predict wildfire risk in the Mojave Desert and may be applicable to other arid and semiarid lands where wildfires are prevalent.

  15. Prevalence and risk factors for Sick Building Syndrome among Italian correctional officers: A pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Chirico

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past two decades, numerous studies on indoor air and the Sick Building Syndrome (SBS have been conducted, mostly in office environments. However, there is little knowledge about SBS in police officers. This study was aimed to fill this gap. Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in 2016 at the Triveneto Penitentiary Center, Northern Italy. Chi-square was used to test the difference of prevalence between office workers (OWs and correctional officers (COs of personal characteristics, cases of SBS, and general and mucocutaneous symptoms associated with SBS. A binary logistic regression was used to identify among individual, environmental, and psychosocial characteristics, factors associated with correctional officers’ Sick Building Syndrome. Results: Chi-squared analyses revealed that there were statistically significant differences in the estimated prevalence of SBS general symptoms (χ2 (1 = 12.22, P < .05, SBS mucocutaneous symptoms (χ2 (1 = 9.04, P < .05, and cases of SBS (χ2 (1 = 4.39, P <.05 between COs and OWs. COs reported that their health had been affected by the passive smoking (β = 2.34, P < .05 and unpleasant odour (β = 2.51, P < .05 as environmental risk factors; work-family conflict (β = 2.14, P < .05, psychological and physical isolation (β = 2.07, P < .05, and negative public image (β = 2.06, P < .05 as psychosocial risk factors. Finally, atopy (β = 2.02, P < .05 and to be current smoker (β = 2.02, P < .05 were statistically significant behavioral predictors of SBS among correctional officers. Discussion: Our survey showed that symptoms compatible with the sick building syndrome are common in correctional officers and that psychosocial work climate and exposure to passive smoking could have a strong influence on the prevalence of both general and mucocutaneous symptoms associated with SBS. A health policy for passive tobacco smoking within prisons, and for work-related stress

  16. Problematic video game use: estimated prevalence and associations with mental and physical health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mentzoni, Rune Aune; Brunborg, Geir Scott; Molde, Helge; Myrseth, Helga; Skouverøe, Knut Joachim Mår; Hetland, Jørn; Pallesen, Ståle

    2011-10-01

    A nationwide survey was conducted to investigate the prevalence of video game addiction and problematic video game use and their association with physical and mental health. An initial sample comprising 2,500 individuals was randomly selected from the Norwegian National Registry. A total of 816 (34.0 percent) individuals completed and returned the questionnaire. The majority (56.3 percent) of respondents used video games on a regular basis. The prevalence of video game addiction was estimated to be 0.6 percent, with problematic use of video games reported by 4.1 percent of the sample. Gender (male) and age group (young) were strong predictors for problematic use of video games. A higher proportion of high frequency compared with low frequency players preferred massively multiplayer online role-playing games, although the majority of high frequency players preferred other game types. Problematic use of video games was associated with lower scores on life satisfaction and with elevated levels of anxiety and depression. Video game use was not associated with reported amount of physical exercise.

  17. Prevalence Estimates of Antibodies Towards Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Small Ruminants in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balinda, Sheila Nina; Tjørnehøj, Kirsten; Muwanika, Vincent B.

    2009-01-01

    summarizes results of serological investigations of sheep and goats for antibodies to FMDV from four districts in 2006 following an FMD outbreak in the region and from an attempted comprehensive random sampling in two districts in 2007. Antibodies were quantified and serotyped using competitive ELISA...... for antibodies towards non-structural proteins (NSP) and structural proteins towards serotype O, and blocking ELISA for antibodies towards the seven serotypes of FMD virus (FMDV). In 2006, sheep and goats in Bushenyi and Isingiro districts were free from antibodies towards FMDV, while herds in Kasese and Mbarara...... districts excluding Kahendero village were all positive for antibodies towards NSP and SP-O. In 2007, mean prevalence estimates of antibodies towards FMDV NSP was 14% in goats and 22% in sheep in Kasese district, while Bushenyi was still free. The difference between these two districts probably reflects...

  18. Estimating Risk and Return Combinations for New Derivatives Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Bona

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Active funds are typically managed by placing bets against a well defined passive bench-mark. In this context, when examining the launching of a new actively managed fund with a target expected excess rate of return relative to the benchmark equal to µ, asset managers face the problem of estimating the risk σ of excess rates of return. This estimate is critical to examine whether the product is commercially feasible and to define risk limits for the manager, if the product is launched. This paper proceeds to examine the solution to this problem assuming an especial form of the binomial model, in the context of the market timing structure advanced by Merton (1981. The paper shows that two variables are relevant for the solution of the proposed problem. The first, and the most relevant, is the skill level of the manager. A ore skilled manager is able to operate a less risky product with the same target excess rate of return µ. The second relevant variable is the trade-off between risk and return determined by existing investment opportunities in the market. The smaller the increases in risk exposure required to obtain an increase in excess returns, the less risky the product will be After solving the problem under specific assumptions, the paper proceeds to test empirically their validity using a representative sample of hedge funds in the Brazilian market. The empirical results strongly support the validity of the required assumptions.

  19. Uncertainties in fatal cancer risk estimates used in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    1999-01-01

    Although ICRP and NCRP had not described the details of uncertainties in cancer risk estimates in radiation protection, NCRP, in 1997, firstly reported the results of uncertainty analysis (NCRP No.126) and which is summarized in this paper. The NCRP report pointed out that there are following five factors which uncertainty possessing: uncertainty in epidemiological studies, in dose assessment, in transforming the estimates to risk assessment, in risk prediction and in extrapolation to the low dose/dose rate. These individual factors were analyzed statistically to obtain the relationship between the probability of cancer death in the US population and life time risk coefficient (% per Sv), which showed that, for the latter, the mean value was 3.99 x 10 -2 /Sv, median, 3.38 x 10 -2 /Sv, GSD (geometrical standard deviation), 1.83 x 10 -2 /Sv and 95% confidential limit, 1.2-8.84 x 10 -2 /Sv. The mean value was smaller than that of ICRP recommendation (5 x 10 -2 /Sv), indicating that the value has the uncertainty factor of 2.5-3. Moreover, the most important factor was shown to be the uncertainty in DDREF (dose/dose rate reduction factor). (K.H.)

  20. Cancer risk estimation from the A-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierce, D.A.; Vaeth, M.

    1989-10-01

    Generalizations regarding radiogenic cancer risks from the A-bomb survivor data of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation involve a large number of well-identified uncertainties and approximations. These include extrapolation to low doses and dose rates, projections in time, sampling variation, the quality of the data, extrapolation to other populations, and the use of simplifying conventions. This paper discusses some of these issues, with emphasis on the first three. Results are given regarding the maximum 'linear-quadratic' curvature consistent with these data, taking into account uncertainties in individual exposure estimates. Discussion is given regarding use of relative risk models and projection of lifetime risks, emphasizing results for those who were old enough at exposure to have been followed up for a major part of their lives by now, and stressing the speculative aspects of conclusions about those exposed as children. Combining these results, and brief discussion of other uncertainties itemized above, comment is made on the evolution of risk estimates over the past 15 years. (author)