WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk donor risk

  1. Being a Living Donor: Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to know FAQ Living donation What is living donation? Organs Types Being a living donor First steps Being ... are considering one of these types of living donation, please talk to your transplant center about the organ-specific risks. Psychological concerns You may also have ...

  2. Development of Organ-Specific Donor Risk Indices

    OpenAIRE

    Akkina, Sanjeev K.; Asrani, Sumeet K.; Peng, Yi; Stock, Peter; Kim, Ray; Israni, Ajay K.

    2012-01-01

    Due to the shortage of deceased donor organs, transplant centers accept organs from marginal deceased donors, including older donors. Organ-specific donor risk indices have been developed to predict graft survival using various combinations of donor and recipient characteristics. We will review the kidney donor risk index (KDRI) and liver donor risk index (LDRI) and compare and contrast their strengths, limitations, and potential uses. The Kidney Donor Risk Index has a potential role in devel...

  3. Development of Organ-Specific Donor Risk Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkina, Sanjeev K.; Asrani, Sumeet K.; Peng, Yi; Stock, Peter; Kim, Ray; Israni, Ajay K.

    2012-01-01

    Due to the shortage of deceased donor organs, transplant centers accept organs from marginal deceased donors, including older donors. Organ-specific donor risk indices have been developed to predict graft survival using various combinations of donor and recipient characteristics. We will review the kidney donor risk index (KDRI) and liver donor risk index (LDRI) and compare and contrast their strengths, limitations, and potential uses. The Kidney Donor Risk Index has a potential role in developing new kidney allocation algorithms. The Liver Donor Risk Index allows for greater appreciation of the importance of donor factors, particularly for hepatitis C-positive recipients; as the donor risk index increases, rates of allograft and patient survival among these recipients decrease disproportionately. Use of livers with high donor risk index is associated with increased hospital costs independent of recipient risk factors, and transplanting livers with high donor risk index into patients with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores Donor Risk Index has limited this practice. Significant regional variation in donor quality, as measured by the Liver Donor Risk Index, remains in the United States. We also review other potential indices for liver transplant, including donor-recipient matching and the retransplant donor risk index. While substantial progress has been made in developing donor risk indices to objectively assess donor variables that affect transplant outcomes, continued efforts are warranted to improve these indices to enhance organ allocation policies and optimize allograft survival. PMID:22287036

  4. Development of organ-specific donor risk indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkina, Sanjeev K; Asrani, Sumeet K; Peng, Yi; Stock, Peter; Kim, W Ray; Israni, Ajay K

    2012-04-01

    Because of the shortage of deceased donor organs, transplant centers accept organs from marginal deceased donors, including older donors. Organ-specific donor risk indices have been developed to predict graft survival with various combinations of donor and recipient characteristics. Here we review the kidney donor risk index (KDRI) and the liver donor risk index (LDRI) and compare and contrast their strengths, limitations, and potential uses. The KDRI has a potential role in developing new kidney allocation algorithms. The LDRI allows a greater appreciation of the importance of donor factors, particularly for hepatitis C virus-positive recipients; as the donor risk index increases, the rates of allograft and patient survival among these recipients decrease disproportionately. The use of livers with high donor risk indices is associated with increased hospital costs that are independent of recipient risk factors, and the transplantation of livers with high donor risk indices into patients with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores indices for liver transplantation, including donor-recipient matching and the retransplant donor risk index. Although substantial progress has been made in developing donor risk indices to objectively assess donor variables that affect transplant outcomes, continued efforts are warranted to improve these indices to enhance organ allocation policies and optimize allograft survival. Copyright © 2012 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  5. A simplified donor risk index for predicting outcome after deceased donor kidney transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Christopher J E; Johnson, Rachel J; Birch, Rhiannon; Collett, Dave; Bradley, J Andrew

    2012-02-15

    We sought to determine the deceased donor factors associated with outcome after kidney transplantation and to develop a clinically applicable Kidney Donor Risk Index. Data from the UK Transplant Registry on 7620 adult recipients of adult deceased donor kidney transplants between 2000 and 2007 inclusive were analyzed. Donor factors potentially influencing transplant outcome were investigated using Cox regression, adjusting for significant recipient and transplant factors. A United Kingdom Kidney Donor Risk Index was derived from the model and validated. Donor age was the most significant factor predicting poor transplant outcome (hazard ratio for 18-39 and 60+ years relative to 40-59 years was 0.78 and 1.49, respectively, Pinformed consent.

  6. Communicating identifiability risks to biobank donors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasperbauer, T. J.; Gjerris, Mickey; Waldemar, Gunhild

    2018-01-01

    Recent highly publicized privacy breaches in healthcare and genomics research have led many to question whether current standards of data protection are adequate. Improvements in de-identification techniques, combined with pervasive data sharing, have increased the likelihood that external parties...... concerns can be incorporated into either a detailed or a simplified method of communicating risks during the consent process....

  7. Are live kidney donors at risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamran, T.; Zaheer, K.; Hussain, S.W.; Zahid, K.H.; Akhtar, M.S.

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To share experience of live donor nephrectomy (including intraoperative variables, morbidity and ethical aspects) and to give an overview of surgical technique being practiced. Results: Majority of the donors (58.5%) were 31-50 years old and 70.6% were first-degree relatives. Left sided kidney was taken in 96.5% cases. Mean operative time was 145 minutes. Mean renal warm ischemia time from cross clamping of renal vessels to cold perfusion on the bench was 1.5 minutes per operation. Operative complications encountered were injury to lumbar veins in 5.1 % cases, slipping of satinsky clamp on vena cava stump in 1.7 % and accidental pleural damage in 5.1 % cases. Postoperative morbid complications found were urinary retention in 6.4 % cases, epididymo-orchitis in 1.7 %, prolonged lymph drain in 3.4 %, stitch infection in 1.7 % and prolonged wound discomfort in 5.1 % patients. Conclusions: Open live donor nepherectomy appears to be safe procedure for harvesting kidney. Related or emotionally related donors must be the choice in all cases. Non-related donors may be entertained in selected cases despite the probability of organ vending in our society. (author)

  8. Organ utilization from increased infectious risk donors: An observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    L'Huillier, Arnaud G; Humar, Atul; Payne, Clare; Kumar, Deepali

    2017-12-01

    Donors with an increased risk of transmitting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), or hepatitis C virus (HCV) (increased risk donors [IRDs]) are a potential source of organs for transplant. Organs from IRDs can be utilized with appropriate recipient consent and post-transplant follow-up. We reviewed the characteristics and utilization of IRDs in our Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) over a 2-year period. Donor information from April 1, 2013 to March 31, 2015 was obtained through the OPO database. Only consented donors were included. Donors were categorized as IRDs according to Health Canada/Canadian Standards Association (CSA) criteria. A total of 494 potential donors were identified, of which 92 (18.6%) were IRDs. Of these, at least one organ was transplanted from 76 (82.6%). Risk factors for IRDs included injection drug user (IDU) (12%), men having sex with men (MSM) (7%), commercial sex worker (CSW) (4%), and incarceration (24%). Fifty-nine percent (253/429) of IRD organs were utilized. The most frequently used organ was kidney, followed by liver. Median number of organs recovered per IRD was 3 (interquartile range: 2-5). Nucleic acid testing (NAT) was performed in 18.5% (17/92) of IRDs. Reasons for NAT were IDU (n = 2), MSM (n = 2), CSW (n = 2), and previous incarceration (n = 7). Organ utilization from donors that had NAT was similar to donors who did not (94% vs 80%, P = .29). Follow-up NAT was done in multiple factors contribute to the perception of infectious risk from such organs. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Frequency and risk factors for donor reactions in an anonymous blood donor survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, Mindy; Osmond, Lori; Yi, Qi-Long; Cameron-Choi, Keltie; O'Brien, Sheila F

    2013-09-01

    Adverse donor reactions can result in injury and decrease the likelihood of donor return. Reaction reports captured in the blood center's database provide an incomplete picture of reaction rates and risk factors. We performed an anonymous survey, mailed to 40,000 donors in 2008, including questions about symptoms, height, weight, sex, and donation status. Reaction rates were compared to those recorded in our database. Possible risk factors were assessed for various reactions. The response rate was 45.5%. A total of 32% of first-time and 14% of repeat donors reported having any adverse symptom, most frequently bruising (84.9 per 1000 donors) or feeling faint or weak (66.2 per 1000). Faint reactions were two to eight times higher than reported in our database, although direct comparison was difficult. Younger age, female sex, and first-time donation status were risk factors for systemic and arm symptoms. In females, low estimated blood volume (EBV) was a risk factor for systemic symptoms. Only 51% of donors who consulted an outside physician also called Canadian Blood Services. A total of 10% of first-time donors with reactions found adverse effects information inadequate. This study allowed us to collect more information about adverse reactions, including minor symptoms and delayed reactions. Based on our findings of the risk factors and frequency of adverse reactions, we are implementing more stringent EBV criteria for younger donors and providing more detailed information to donors about possible adverse effects and their management. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  10. Cancer risk in children born after donor ART.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C L; Bunch, K J; Murphy, M F G; Stiller, C A; Botting, B J; Wallace, W H; Davies, M C; Sutcliffe, A G

    2018-01-01

    Do children born after donor ART have an increased risk of developing childhood cancer in comparison to the general population? This study showed no overall increased risk of childhood cancer in individuals born after donor ART. Most large population-based studies have shown no increase in overall childhood cancer incidence after non-donor ART; however, other studies have suggested small increased risks in specific cancer types, including haematological cancers. Cancer risk specifically in children born after donor ART has not been investigated to date. This retrospective cohort study utilized record linkage to determine the outcome status of all children born in Great Britain (1992-2008) after donor ART. The cohort included 12 137 members who contributed 95 389 person-years of follow-up (average follow-up 7.86 years). Records of all children born in Great Britain (England, Wales, Scotland) after all forms of donor ART (1992-2008) were linked to the UK National Registry of Childhood Tumours (NRCT) to determine the number who subsequently developed cancer by 15 years of age, by the end of 2008. Rates of overall and type specific cancer (selected a priori) were compared with age, sex and calendar year standardized population-based rates, stratifying for potential mediating/moderating factors including sex, age at diagnosis, birth weight, multiple births, maternal previous live births, assisted conception type and fresh/ cryopreserved cycles. In our cohort of 12 137 children born after donor ART (52% male, 55% singleton births), no overall increased risk of cancer was identified. There were 12 cancers detected compared to 14.4 expected (standardized incidence ratio (SIR) 0.83; 95% CI 0.43-1.45; P = 0.50). A small, significant increased risk of hepatoblastoma was found, but the numbers and absolute risks were small (ART, the rarity of specific diagnostic subgroups of childhood cancer results in few cases and therefore wide CIs for such outcomes. As this is an

  11. High Center Volume Does Not Mitigate Risk Associated with Using High Donor Risk Organs in Liver Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beal, Eliza W; Black, Sylvester M; Mumtaz, Khalid; Hayes, Don; El-Hinnawi, Ashraf; Washburn, Kenneth; Tumin, Dmitry

    2017-09-01

    High-risk donor allografts increase access to liver transplant, but potentially reduce patient and graft survival. It is unclear whether the risk associated with using marginal donor livers is mitigated by increasing center experience. The United Network for Organ Sharing registry was queried for adult first-time liver transplant recipients between 2/2002 and 12/2015. High donor risk was defined as donor risk index >1.9, and 1-year patient and graft survival were compared according to donor risk index in small and large centers. Multivariable Cox regression estimated the hazard ratio (HR) associated with using high-risk donor organs, according to a continuous measure of annual center volume. The analysis included 51,770 patients. In 67 small and 67 large centers, high donor risk index predicted increased mortality (p = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, high-donor risk index allografts predicted greater mortality hazard at centers performing 20 liver transplants per year (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.22, 1.49; p donor risk index and center volume was not statistically significant (p = 0.747), confirming that the risk associated with using marginal donor livers was comparable between smaller and larger centers. Results were consistent when examining graft loss. At both small and large centers, high-risk donor allografts were associated with reduced patient and graft survival after liver transplant. Specific strategies to mitigate the risk of liver transplant involving high-risk donors are needed, in addition to accumulation of center expertise.

  12. Deceased Organ Donors and PHS Risk Identification: Impact on Organ Usage and Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruett, Timothy L; Clark, Marissa A; Taranto, Sarah E

    2017-07-01

    In 2013, the public health service (PHS) changed the criteria intended to identify organ donors that put the associated organ recipients at increased risk for acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV). The changing donor demographics, organ utilization, and outcomes associated with this change are not known. A review of the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database was performed to assess the impact of PHS donor designation on organ utilization and outcomes. After the 2013 modification, over 20% of all deceased organ donors in the United States were identified as PHS increased risk. Compared with the standard risk deceased organ donor, the PHS donor was younger, male, died from anoxia, more likely to be HCV and antibody reacting to hepatitis B core antigen+, and less likely to have diabetes or hypertension. Organs from the 18- to 34-year-old deceased donors with PHS risks (but relatively few medical comorbidities) and tested negative for HCV were less frequently transplanted compared with the standard risk donors (3.9 vs 4.2 organs transplanted per donor). However, the transplant patient and graft survival as well as risk of unexpected transmission of HIV, HBV, and HCV were equivalent, irrespective of PHS donor status. The rationale of using PHS donor designation that negatively impacts utilization of high-quality organs without the benefit of identifying the subset of organs with demonstrable proclivity to transmit HIV, HBV, or HCV needs to be reexamined.

  13. Risk for cancer in living kidney donors and recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Min; Zhang, Huai; Zhou, Dan; Qiao, Yong-Chao; Pan, Yan-Hong; Wang, Yan-Chao; Zhao, Hai-Lu

    2018-03-01

    Malignancy following renal transplantation remains inconsistent with the reported safety of kidney donation during the long-term follow-up. We conducted searches of the published literature which included healthy participants, recipients, living kidney donors (LKDs), and the availability of outcome data for malignancy. Eight from 938 potentially relevant studies were analyzed by means of fixed-effects model or random-effects model, as appropriately. In 48,950 participants, the follow-up range was 18 months to 20 years, and the mean age of the subjects was approximately 41 years. The incidence rate with 95% confidence interval (CI) for malignancy after kidney transplantation was 0.03 (0.01-0.05) in recipients and 0.03 (0.1-0.07) in LKDs, giving a pooled incidence rate of 0.03 (95% CI 0.02-0.04). LKDs contrasted nondonors by the overall odds ratio and 95% CI for total cancer of 2.80 (2.69-2.92). Kidney transplantation was associated with an increased risk of cancer during a long-term follow-up. Long-term risk for cancer in LKDs and kidney recipients should be monitored.

  14. Challenges of using HIV as a primary risk indicator: Need for integrated blood donor risk management model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mapako, T.; Parirewa, J.J.; Emmanuel, J.C.; Mvere, D.A.; Massundah, E.; Mavunganidze, G.; Marowa, L.M.; Postma, M.J.; Van Hulst, M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The use of risk modelling in blood safety is increasing getting momentum. NBSZ initiated blood donor risk profiling based on donation frequency (r-coding) since 1994 and in 2006 a generic risk classification model was developed (include age and donation venue) which was mainly based on

  15. Geographic exposure risk of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in US blood donors: a risk-ranking model to evaluate alternative donor-deferral policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hong; Huang, Yin; Gregori, Luisa; Asher, David M; Bui, Travis; Forshee, Richard A; Anderson, Steven A

    2017-04-01

    Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has been transmitted by blood transfusion (TTvCJD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommends deferring blood donors who resided in or traveled to 30 European countries where they may have been exposed to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) through beef consumption. Those recommendations warrant re-evaluation, because new cases of BSE and vCJD have markedly abated. The FDA developed a risk-ranking model to calculate the geographic vCJD risk using country-specific case rates and person-years of exposure of US blood donors. We used the reported country vCJD case rates, when available, or imputed vCJD case rates from reported BSE and UK beef exports during the risk period. We estimated the risk reduction and donor loss should the deferral be restricted to a few high-risk countries. We also estimated additional risk reduction by leukocyte reduction (LR) of red blood cells (RBCs). The United Kingdom, Ireland, and France had the greatest vCJD risk, contributing approximately 95% of the total risk. The model estimated that deferring US donors who spent extended periods of time in these three countries, combined with currently voluntary LR (95% of RBC units), would reduce the vCJD risk by 89.3%, a reduction similar to that achieved under the current policy (89.8%). Limiting deferrals to exposure in these three countries would potentially allow donations from an additional 100,000 donors who are currently deferred. Our analysis suggests that a deferral option focusing on the three highest risk countries would achieve a level of blood safety similar to that achieved by the current policy. © 2016 AABB.

  16. Analyzing actual risk in malaria-deferred donors through selective serologic testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Megan L; Goff, Tami; Gibble, Joan; Steele, Whitney R; Leiby, David A

    2013-08-01

    Approximately 150,000 US blood donors are deferred annually for travel to malaria-endemic areas. However, the majority do not travel to the high-risk areas of Africa associated with transfusion-transmitted malaria (TTM) but visit low-risk areas such as Mexico. This study tests for Plasmodium infection among malaria-deferred donors, particularly those visiting Mexico. Blood donors deferred for malaria risk (travel, residence, or previous infection) provided blood samples and completed a questionnaire. Plasma was tested for Plasmodium antibodies by enzyme immunoassay (EIA); repeat-reactive (RR) samples were considered positive and tested by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Accepted donors provided background testing data. During 2005 to 2011, a total of 5610 malaria-deferred donors were tested by EIA, including 5412 travel deferrals. Overall, 88 (1.6%) were EIA RR; none were PCR positive. Forty-nine (55.7%) RR donors previously had malaria irrespective of deferral category, including 34 deferred for travel. Among 1121 travelers to Mexico, 90% visited Quintana Roo (no or very low risk), but just 2.2% visited Oaxaca/Chiapas (moderate or high risk). Only two Mexican travelers tested RR; both previously had malaria not acquired in Mexico. Travel to Mexico represents a large percentage of US donors deferred for malaria risk; however, these donors primarily visit no- or very-low-risk areas. No malaria cases acquired in Mexico were identified thereby supporting previous risk estimates. Consideration should be given to allowing blood donations from U.S. donors who travel to Quintana Roo and other low-risk areas in Mexico. A more effective approach to preventing TTM would be to defer all donors with a history of malaria, even if remote. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  17. Risk of cancer after blood transfusion from donors with subclinical cancer: a retrospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edgren, Gustaf; Hjalgrim, Henrik; Reilly, Marie

    2007-01-01

    transmission from blood donors to recipients through blood transfusion. METHODS: We did a register-based retrospective cohort study of cancer incidence among patients who received blood from donors deemed to have a subclinical cancer at the time of donation. These precancerous donors were diagnosed......, and essentially complete, population and health-care registers. The risk of cancer in exposed recipients relative to that in recipients who received blood from non-cancerous donors was estimated with multivariate Poisson regression, adjusting for potential confounding factors. FINDINGS: Of the 354 094 transfusion...... recipients eligible for this analysis, 12,012 (3%) were exposed to blood products from precancerous donors. There was no excess risk of cancer overall (adjusted relative risk 1.00, 95% CI 0.94-1.07) or in crude anatomical subsites among recipients of blood from precancerous donors compared with recipients...

  18. Risk factors for delayed healing at the free anterolateral thigh flap donor site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshiro Abe

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background The free anterolateral thigh (ALT flap has been widely used for various kinds of reconstructions. However, delayed healing at the donor site occasionally occurs due to wound dehiscence or the partial loss of grafted skin at the donor site. The aim of the present study was to identify reliable predictive factors for delayed healing at the donor site after the harvest of a free ALT flap. Methods This study included 52 patients who underwent reconstructive procedures using free ALT flaps. The delayed healing group included patients with wounds at the donor site that had not healed over 3 weeks after surgery, and the normal healing group included patients who showed wound healing within 3 weeks after surgery. Multivariate logistic regression models were created to identify the risk factors for delayed healing at the ALT flap donor site. Results Among the 52 patients, 24 (46.2% showed delayed healing at the donor site, and 6 patients required additional operative treatment. A high preoperative body mass index (BMI, smoking, and skin grafting were found to be significantly associated with delayed healing at the ALT donor site. Of the 37 patients who underwent skin grafting, 23 (62% experienced delayed healing at the donor site. Conclusions A high preoperative BMI, smoking, and skin grafting were risk factors for delayed healing at the free ALT donor site. Skin grafting at the ALT donor site should be avoided in patients with a high BMI or a habit of smoking.

  19. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  20. Donation frequency, iron loss, and risk of cancer among blood donors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edgren, Gustaf; Reilly, Marie; Hjalgrim, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Long-term deleterious effects of repeated blood donations may be masked by the donors' healthy lifestyle. To investigate possible effects of blood donation and iron loss through blood donation on cancer incidence while minimizing "healthy donor effects," we made dose......-response comparisons within a cohort of Swedish and Danish blood donors. METHODS: We used a nested case-control study design, in which case patients were defined as all donors who were diagnosed with a malignancy between their first recorded blood donation and study termination (n = 10866). Control subjects (n...... plasma donors (> 25 vs 0 donations, OR = 2.14, 95% CI = 1.22 to 3.74). CONCLUSIONS: Repeated blood donation was not associated with increased or decreased risk of cancer overall. The lack of consistency across latency periods casts doubt on an apparent association between reduced cancer risk and iron...

  1. Deconstructing the risk for malaria in United States donors deferred for travel to Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Bryan; Kleinman, Steven; Custer, Brian; Cable, Ritchard; Wilkinson, Susan L; Steele, Whitney; High, Patrick M; Wright, David

    2011-11-01

    More than 66,000 blood donors are deferred annually in the United States due to travel to malaria-endemic areas of Mexico. Mexico accounts for the largest share of malaria travel deferrals, yet it has extremely low risk for malaria transmission throughout most of its national territory, suggesting a suboptimal balance between blood safety and availability. This study sought to determine whether donor deferral requirements might be relaxed for parts of Mexico without compromising blood safety. Travel destination was recorded from a representative sample of presenting blood donors deferred for malaria travel from six blood centers during 2006. We imputed to these donors reporting Mexican travel a risk for acquiring malaria equivalent to Mexican residents in the destination location, adjusted for length of stay. We extrapolated these results to the overall US blood donor population. Risk for malaria in Mexico varies significantly across endemic areas and is greatest in areas infrequently visited by study donors. More than 70% of blood donor deferrals were triggered by travel to the state of Quintana Roo on the Yucatán Peninsula, an area of very low malaria transmission. Eliminating the travel deferral requirement for all areas except the state of Oaxaca might result in the recovery of almost 65,000 blood donors annually at risk of approximately one contaminated unit collected every 20 years. Deferral requirements should be relaxed for presenting donors who traveled to areas within Mexico that confer exceptionally small risks for malaria, such as Quintana Roo. © 2011 American Association of Blood Banks.

  2. Inactivation of high-risk human papillomaviruses by Holder pasteurization: implications for donor human milk banking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donalisio, Manuela; Cagno, Valeria; Vallino, Marta; Moro, Guido E; Arslanoglu, Sertac; Tonetto, Paola; Bertino, Enrico; Lembo, David

    2014-01-01

    Several studies have recently reported the detection of oncogenic human papillomaviruses (HPV) in human milk of a minority of lactating mothers. These findings raised safety concerns in the context of human donor milk banking given the potential risk of HPV transmission to recipient infants. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the Holder pasteurization, a procedure currently in use in human donor milk banks for milk pasteurization, completely inactivates high-risk and low-risk HPV. HPV pseudoviruses (PsV) were generated, spiked into cell culture medium or donor human milk and subjected to thermal inactivation. HPV PsV infectivity and morphological integrity was analyzed by cell-based assay and by electron microscopy, respectively. The Holder pasteurization completely inactivated the infectivity of high-risk (types 16 and 18) and low-risk (type 6) HPV both in cell culture medium and in human milk causing PsV particle disassembly. The results presented here indicate that the Holder pasteurization is an efficient procedure to inactivate high-risk and low-risk HPV thus preventing the potential risk of their transmission through human donor milk.

  3. Living donor risk model for predicting kidney allograft and patient survival in an emerging economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, Mirza Naqi; Wong, Germaine; Aziz, Tahir; Abbas, Khawar; Adibul Hasan Rizvi, S

    2018-03-01

    Living donor kidney is the main source of donor organs in low to middle income countries. We aimed to develop a living donor risk model that predicts graft and patient survival in an emerging economy. We used data from the Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation (SIUT) database (n = 2283 recipients and n = 2283 living kidney donors, transplanted between 1993 and 2009) and conducted Cox proportional hazard analyses to develop a composite score that predicts graft and patient survivals. Donor factors age, creatinine clearance, nephron dose (estimated by donor/recipient body weight ratio) and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) match were included in the living donor risk model. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for graft failures among those who received a kidney with living donor scores (reference to donor score of zero) of 1, 2, 3 and 4 were 1.14 (95%CI: 0.94-1.39), 1.24 (95%CI:1.03-1.49), 1.25 (95%CI:1.03-1.51) and 1.36 (95%CI:1.08-1.72) (P-value for trend =0.05). Similar findings were observed for patient survival. Similar to findings in high income countries, our study suggests that donor characteristics such as age, nephron dose, creatinine clearance and HLA match are important factors that determine the long-term patient and graft survival in low income countries. However, other crucial but undefined factors may play a role in determining the overall risk of graft failure and mortality in living kidney donor transplant recipients. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

  4. Donor blood procurement and the risk of transfusion transmissible ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Blood and blood products are scarce commodities. The demand often outweighs the supply. This study is directed at investigating the blood procurement sources and the risk of viral transfusion transmissible infection. Materials and Methods: The records of the blood transfusion unit of a tertiary health facility in ...

  5. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  6. Objective identification of sexual risk behavior among blood donors in Croatia: is it reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miskulin, Maja; Puntaric, Dinko; Bozikov, Jadranka; Miskulin, Ivan; Ruzman, Natasa

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to determine the prevalence of blood donors positive for herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), to identify the patterns of sexual risk behavior responsible for HSV-2 positivity and to assess the reliability of HSV-2 positivity as a marker of sexual risk behavior in the study population. This cross-sectional study included 423 blood donors of both sexes from eastern Croatia. Their blood samples were tested by ELISA IgG test kit for HSV-2 IgG and Western blot. Data on sexual risk behavior were collected by use of an anonymous questionnaire. Western blot testing showed HSV-2 IgG antibodies in 14 of 423 (3.3%) donor blood samples. The most common patterns of sexual risk behavior potentially associated with test positivity were irregular condom use during sexual intercourse with new partners (294/423; 69.5%) and > or = 5 sexual partners during lifetime (213/423; 50.4%). The population of blood donors from eastern Croatia included subgroups of subjects characterized by sexual risk behavior. Study results pointed to a relationship between various forms of sexual risk behavior and HSV-2 positivity, which could therefore serve as a reliable marker of sexual risk behavior in the study population.

  7. Risk Factors for Hepatitis C Virus Infection among Blood Donors in Georgia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaller, Nickolas; Nelson, Kenrad E.; Aladashvili, Malvina; Badridze, Nino; Rio, Carlos del; Tsertsvadze, Tengiz

    2004-01-01

    Background: Growing awareness about the importance of blood safety for controlling the transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) has helped to decrease the spread of this virus in many settings. This study was conducted in order to evaluate potential risk factors for HCV infection among blood donors in Georgia. Methods: The study population consisted of 553 blood donors in three major Georgian cities; Tbilisi, the capital city and Batumi and Poti, naval port cities. Risk factors were examined using a behavior questionnaire. All blood samples were initially tested using 3rd generation anti-HCV enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and confirmed using recombinant immunoblot assays and nucleic acid testing. Results: Forty-three blood donors, 7.8%, were confirmed HCV positive. Significant risk factors included: drug injection ever (OR: 42; 95% CI: 3.2-550.7); history of hepatitis (OR: 25.9; 95% CI: 4.6-145.5); history of a previous surgical procedure (OR: 148.4; 95% CI: 26.9-817.4); blood transfusion (OR: 25.9; 95% CI: 3.2-210.9). Conclusions: This study found a very high prevalence of HCV among blood donors in Georgia. The main risk factor for HCV infection in this population of blood donors was previous contact with contaminated blood or blood products. Reliable screening of donors and their blood is critical for controlling the further spread of HCV in Georgia

  8. SYSTEMIC COMPLICATIONS AND THEIR RISK FACTORS AMONG TEHRANIAN BLOOD DONOR, 2005

    OpenAIRE

    F. Majlessi; S. Ghafari; A. Rahimi-Foroushani M. Maghsoodlou

    2008-01-01

    The systemic complications of blood donation are the first reasons why patients fail to return for further blood donation. This study was designed to determine the frequency of these complications and their associated risk factors among blood donors in Tehran. Also, we aimed to provide suitable methods to decrease the frequency of these adverse events, thereby eliminating the most important causes of withdrawal, while maintaining the health of the donors. This analytical descriptive cross-sec...

  9. Incidence and Residual Risk of HIV, HBV and HCV Infections Among Blood Donors in Tehran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saber, Hamid Reza; Tabatabaee, Seyed Morteza; Abasian, Ali; Jamali, Mostafa; SalekMoghadam, Ebadollah; Hajibeigi, Bashir; Alavian, Seyed Moayed; Mirrezaie, Seyed Mohammad

    2017-09-01

    Estimation of residual risk is essential to monitor and improve blood safety. Our epidemiologic knowledge in the Iranian donor population regarding transfusion transmitted viral infections (TTIs), is confined to a few studies based on prevalence rate. There are no reports on residual risk of TTIs in Iran. In present survey, a software database of donor records of Tehran Blood Transfusion Center (TBTC) was used to estimate the incidence and residual risk of hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections, by applying the incidence rate/window period (IR-WP) model. A total of 1,207,155 repeat donations was included in the analysis and represented a mean of 8.4 donations per donor over 6 years. The incidence amongst repeat donors was estimated by dividing the number of confirmed seroconverting donors by the total number of person-years at risk. The residual risk was calculated using the incidence/window period model. Incidence rate and residual risk for HBV, HCV and HIV infections were calculated for total (2005-2010) and two consecutive periods (2005-2007 and 2008-2010) of the study. According to the IR-WP model, overall residual risk for HIV and HCV in the total study period was 0.4 and 12.5 per million units, respectively and for HBV 4.57/100,000 donations. The incidence and residual risk of TTIs, calculated on TBTC's blood supply was low and comparable with developed countries for HIV infection but high for HCV and HBV infections. Blood safety may therefore be better managed by applying other techniques like nucleic acid amplification tests.

  10. Risk reduction strategies in laparoscopic donor nephrectomy: A comparative study

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    T Manohar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: As the advancements, modifications and standardization of laparoscopy are taking place, there is a need for the reduction in morbidity associated with laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy. This study was performed to determine and reconfirm the advantages of laparoscopic donor nephrectomy over its open counterpart. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two hundred open live donor nephrectomy (ODN cases were compared to 264 cases of laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy (LDN. Pretransplant functional and radiological evaluation was done routinely by excretory urogram and renal arteriography. In case of vascular variations, CT angiography was preferred. Open cases were done by conventional method and laparoscopic group underwent certain technical and surgical modifications, including meticulous planning for the port placement. Operative time, analgesia requirement, start of the orals, hospital stay, blood loss, late allograft function, incidence of rejection, complications and technical problems were analyzed. RESULTS: Operative time was 135.8 ± 43 and 165 ± 44.4 min ( P < 0.0001, requirement of analgesia was 60.5 ± 40 and 320 ± 120 mg ( P < 0.0001, hospital stay was 4 ± 0.04 and 5.7 ± 2.03 days ( P < 0.0001, warm ischemia time was 6.1 ± 2.0 and 4.1 ± 0.80 min ( P < 0.0001 and time taken for the serum creatinine to stabilize in the recipient was 4.1 ± 1.6 and 4.32 ± 1.40 days ( P =0.06 for LDN and ODN groups respectively. There was a significant reduction in the blood loss in LDN group ( P =0.0005. Overall complications were 6.81 and 14.5% and ureteric injury was seen in 0.37 and 1% in LDN and ODN respectively. CONCLUSION: Laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy can now be performed with low morbidity and mortality to both donors and recipients and is proving to be the preferred operation to open donor nephrectomy. Our continued innovations in technical modifications have made this novel operation successful.

  11. Emerging infectious disease outbreaks: estimating disease risk in Australian blood donors travelling overseas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coghlan, A; Hoad, V C; Seed, C R; Flower, R Lp; Harley, R J; Herbert, D; Faddy, H M

    2018-01-01

    International travel assists spread of infectious pathogens. Australians regularly travel to South-eastern Asia and the isles of the South Pacific, where they may become infected with infectious agents, such as dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses that pose a potential risk to transfusion safety. In Australia, donors are temporarily restricted from donating for fresh component manufacture following travel to many countries, including those in this study. We aimed to estimate the unmitigated transfusion-transmission (TT) risk from donors travelling internationally to areas affected by emerging infectious diseases. We used the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool, with travel and notification data, to estimate the TT risk from donors travelling to areas affected by disease outbreaks: Fiji (DENV), Bali (DENV), Phuket (DENV), Indonesia (CHIKV) and French Polynesia (ZIKV). We predict minimal risk from travel, with the annual unmitigated risk of an infected component being released varying from 1 in 1·43 million to disease outbreak areas to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach. © 2017 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  12. Heart transplant outcomes in recipients of Centers for Disease Control (CDC) high risk donors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsiouris, Athanasios; Wilson, Lynn; Sekar, Rajesh B; Mangi, Abeel A; Yun, James J

    2016-12-01

    A lack of donor hearts remains a major limitation of heart transplantation. Hearts from Centers for Disease Control (CDC) high-risk donors can be utilized with specific recipient consent. However, outcomes of heart transplantation with CDC high-risk donors are not well known. We sought to define outcomes, including posttransplant hepatitis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, in recipients of CDC high-risk donor hearts at our institution. All heart transplant recipients from August 2010 to December 2014 (n = 74) were reviewed. Comparison of 1) CDC high-risk donor (HRD) versus 2) standard-risk donor (SRD) groups were performed using chi-squared tests for nominal data and Wilcoxon two-sample tests for continuous variables. Survival was estimated with Kaplan-Meier curves. Of 74 heart transplant recipients reviewed, 66 (89%) received a SRD heart and eight (11%) received a CDC HRD heart. We found no significant differences in recipient age, sex, waiting list 1A status, pretransplant left ventricular assist device (LVAD) support, cytomegalovirus (CMV) status, and graft ischemia times (p = NS) between the HRD and SRD groups. All of the eight HRD were seronegative at the time of transplant. Postoperatively, there was no significant difference in rejection rates at six and 12 months posttransplant. Importantly, no HRD recipients acquired hepatitis or HIV. Survival in HRD versus SRD recipients was not significantly different by Kaplan-Meier analysis (log rank p = 0.644) at five years posttransplant. Heart transplants that were seronegative at the time of transplant had similar posttransplant graft function, rejection rates, and five-year posttransplant survival versus recipients of SRD hearts. At our institution, no cases of hepatitis or HIV occurred in HRD recipients in early follow-up. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Transmission of infectious agents from the donor to the recipient. Do we need change in the risk assessment?

    OpenAIRE

    S. V. Zhuravel; N. K. Kuznetsova; T. V. Chernenkaya; I. I. Utkina

    2015-01-01

    The article discusses the possible risks of infection by bacterial, fungal and viral infections the recipient of donor organs. Identified infectious diseases in which the reserve of donor organs is contraindicated for the recipient and the diseases for which it is possible to use donor organs.

  14. SYSTEMIC COMPLICATIONS AND THEIR RISK FACTORS AMONG TEHRANIAN BLOOD DONOR, 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Majlessi

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The systemic complications of blood donation are the first reasons why patients fail to return for further blood donation. This study was designed to determine the frequency of these complications and their associated risk factors among blood donors in Tehran. Also, we aimed to provide suitable methods to decrease the frequency of these adverse events, thereby eliminating the most important causes of withdrawal, while maintaining the health of the donors. This analytical descriptive cross-sectional study was performed on 554 blood donors who had donated blood from February 2005 through September 2005 in four fixed blood donation bases and four mobile blood collection buses. Each base was considered as a stratum, and a stratified random sampling proportional to size was done to select the donors. Results showed donor reaction rate to be 13.4%, the most common of which were blackout of vision (7%, dizziness (6.3%, fatigue (6.1% and nausea (1.8%. There was no significant relationship between the incidence of these complications and type of base blood donation or fasting at the time of blood donation. Logistic Regression analysis showed that sex, condition of blood donor, exercise or walking, duration of donation, and practice to recommendation had significant effects on the odds ratio of systemic complication. Regarding the frequency values derived for the different systemic complications it can be concluded that attention to risk factors of these complications and their control can help encourage donors to become repeated donors as well as to prevent their withdrawal for further blood donation.

  15. Risk disclosure and the recruitment of oocyte donors: are advertisers telling the full story?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberta, Hillary B; Berry, Roberta M; Levine, Aaron D

    2014-01-01

    This study analyzes 435 oocyte donor recruitment advertisements to assess whether entities recruiting donors of oocytes to be used for in vitro fertilization (IVF) procedures include a disclosure of risks associated with the donation process in their advertisements. Such disclosure is required by the self-regulatory guidelines of the American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM) and by law in California for advertisements placed in the state. We find very low rates of risk disclosure across entity types and regulatory regimes, although risk disclosure is more common in advertisements placed by entities subject to ASRM's self-regulatory guidelines. Advertisements placed in California are more likely to include risk disclosure, but disclosure rates are still quite low. California-based entities advertising outside the state are more likely to include risk disclosure than non-California entities, suggesting that California's law may have a modest "halo effect." Our results suggest that there is a significant ethical and policy problem with the status quo in light of the known and unknown risks of oocyte donation and the importance of risk disclosure to informed consent in the context of oocyte donation. © 2014 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

  16. Changing the paradigm of organ utilization from PHS increased-risk donors: an opportunity whose time has come?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibulesky, Lena; Javed, Imran; Reyes, Jorge D; Limaye, Ajit P

    2015-09-01

    Approximately 8-11% of all organ donors are classified by Public Health Service (PHS) as increased-risk. The proportion of PHS increased-risk donors is on the rise. At the University of Washington Medical Center, in 2014, the proportion of transplants from PHS increased-risk donors was 28% of liver transplants and 23% of kidney transplants. Nationally, transplant providers have been reluctant to use organs from PHS increased-risk donors because of concern for transmission of HIV, HCV, or HBV. There is also patient apprehension when these organs are being offered, and thus the discard rate of these otherwise good quality organs is high. Because of the organ shortage, preventing underutilization of such organs is essential. We provide data and considerations that should be used to guide the use of organs from PHS increased-risk donors. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Risk-Factor Profile of Living Kidney Donors: The Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Living Kidney Donor Registry 2004-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, Philip A; Saunders, John R; McDonald, Stephen P; Allen, Richard D M; Pilmore, Helen; Saunder, Alan; Boudville, Neil; Chadban, Steven J

    2016-06-01

    Recent literature suggests that living kidney donation may be associated with an excess risk of end-stage kidney disease and death. Efforts to maximize access to transplantation may result in acceptance of donors who do not fit within current guidelines, potentially placing them at risk of adverse long-term outcomes. We studied the risk profile of Australian and New Zealand living kidney donors using data from the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Living Kidney Donor Registry over 2004 to 2012. We compared their predonation profile against national guidelines for donor acceptance. The analysis included 2,932 donors (mean age 48.8 ± 11.2 years, range 18-81), 58% female and 87% Caucasian. Forty (1%) had measured glomerular filtration rate less than 80 mL/min; 32 (1%) had proteinuria >300 mg/day; 589 (20%) were hypertensive; 495 (18%) obese; 9 (0.3%) were diabetic while a further 55 (2%) had impaired glucose tolerance; and 218 (7%) were current smokers. Overall 767 donors (26%) had at least one relative contraindication to donation and 268 (9%) had at least one absolute contraindication according to national guidelines. Divergence of current clinical practice from national guidelines has occurred. In the context of recent evidence demonstrating elevated long-term donor risk, rigorous follow-up and reporting of outcomes are now mandated to ensure safety and document any change in risk associated with such a divergence.

  18. [Why defer blood donor candidates because of an exposure risk to Chagas disease?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garraud, O; Pelletier, B; Aznar, C

    2008-06-01

    Various infectious agents can be transmitted by blood exposure, which comprises of transfusion, of which hemoparasites that are commonly absent from European countries but that can have infected blood donor candidates born, raised or having been living in the Tropics. Among those hemoparasites is Trypanosoma cruzi, responsible for Chagas disease. T. cruzi is responsible for acute post-transfusion infections every year in endemic areas (South America) and also, more incidently, in North America. There are situations which expose European blood donors to this risk and the present essay discusses arguments which have now been taken into consideration by certain transfusion systems such as the French one.

  19. Risk factors for human immunodeficiency virus among blood donors in Cameroon: evidence for the design of an Africa-specific donor history questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagny, Claude T; Nguefack-Tsague, Georges; Fopa, Diderot; Ashu, Celestin; Tante, Estel; Ngo Balogog, Pauline; Donfack, Olivier; Mbanya, Dora; Laperche, Syria; Murphy, Edward

    2017-08-01

    In sub-Saharan Africa improving the deferral of at-risk blood donors would be a cost-effective approach to reducing transfusion-transmitted human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections. We performed a pilot case-control study to identify the risk factors for HIV infection and to develop an adapted donor history questionnaire (DHQ) for sub-Saharan Africa. We recruited 137 HIV-positive donors (cases) and 256 HIV-negative donors (controls) and gathered risk factor data using audio computer-assisted self-interview. Variables with univariate associations were entered into a logistic regression model to assess independent associations. A scoring scheme to distinguish between HIV-positive and HIV-negative donors was developed using receiver operating characteristics curves. We identified 16 risk factors including sex with sex worker, past history or treatment for sexually transmitted infections, and having a partner who used injected or noninjected illegal drugs. Two novel risks were related to local behavior: polygamy (odds ratio [OR], 22.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.9-86.7) and medical or grooming treatment on the street (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.0-3.0). Using the 16 selected items the mean scores (>100) were 82.6 ± 6.7 (range, 53.2-95.1) and 85.1 ± 5.2 for HIV-negative donors versus 77.9 ± 6.8 for HIV-positive ones (p = 0.000). Donors who scored between 80 and 90 were more likely to be HIV negative than those who scored less (OR, 31.4; 95% CI, 3.1-313.9). We identified both typical and novel HIV risk factors among Cameroonian blood donors. An adapted DHQ and score that discriminate HIV-negative donors may be an inexpensive means of reducing transfusion-transmitted HIV through predonation screening. © 2017 AABB.

  20. Impact of changes to policy for Mexican risk travel on Canadian blood donor deferrals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Sheila F; Uzicanin, Samra; Choquet, Karine; Yi, Qi-Long; Fan, Wenli; Goldman, Mindy

    2013-10-01

    Travel to malaria risk areas such as Mexico is a common source of donor deferral in Canada. On February 21st, 2011 the deferrable regions in Mexico were revised to permit donation if donors travelled to the state of Quintana Roo, Mexico, a popular ocean-side resort area. Canadian travel data and malaria deferral rates since 2007 were plotted to examine trends. Deferral records in one centre were accessed from January to April, 2011 to tabulate travel destinations of deferred donors immediately before and after the change. Travel to Mexico and the Caribbean accounts for 63% of general population travel, and travel to Mexico has been increasing (P <0.05). Deferral for short-term malaria risk travel has a strong seasonal trend with peaks in the winter and troughs in the summer. Approximately 36,000 fewer donations were lost following the change, a reduction of 37% from the previous year. Deferrals in one centre increased for Caribbean/Central America after the change (P <0.05) consistent with the seasonal trend, but decreased for Mexico (P <0.05). Deferrals for malaria risk travel are substantial. Careful revision and refinement of risk areas of travel can significantly reduce the burden of deferral.

  1. Online sperm donors: the impact of family, friends, personality and risk perception on behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whyte, Stephen; Savage, David A; Torgler, Benno

    2017-12-01

    As informal sperm donation becomes more prevalent worldwide, understanding donor psychology and interactions is critical in providing effective policy, equitable legislative frameworks and frontline health support to an ever-growing number of global participants. We analyse data of informal sperm donors who were members of the connection website PrideAngel to identify the role and effect of several factors, e.g. kinship, social networks, personality, and risk perception, on behaviour. A key strength of the study is the ability to analyse various factors, such as the level and history of informal donation, risk concerns, number of women to whom donations are informally made and the number of offspring. Our results indicate donors who have also been active in formal clinical settings (compared with those who exclusively donate informally), donate to more women in the informal market and realise more offspring. Donor's sexual orientation also affects activity. From a personality perspective, conscientiousness provides comparative advantage. It is possible this characteristic provides positive externalities, as more conscientious men may be more efficient or organised in a market that requires increased cooperation and communication. The importance of kin and social networks seems to affect frequency of donation only, possibly representing a time constraint (or opportunity cost). Copyright © 2017 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk factors for complications in donors at first and repeat whole blood donation: a cohort study with assessment of the impact on donor return.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiersum-Osselton, Johanna C; Marijt-van der Kreek, Tanneke; Brand, Anneke; Veldhuizen, Ingrid; van der Bom, Johanna G; de Kort, Wim

    2014-01-01

    First-time donation is among recognised risk factors for vasovagal reactions to blood donation and reactions are known to reduce donor return. We assessed associations between potential risk factors and vasovagal reactions and needle-related complications in first-time whole blood donation in comparison to repeat donation and analysed the impact of complications on donor return. We performed a cohort study on whole blood donations in The Netherlands from 1/1/2010 to 31/12/2010 using data extracted from the blood service information system. Donation data up to 31/12/2011 were used to ascertain donor return. In 2010 28,786 donors made first whole blood donations and there were 522,958 repeat donations. Vasovagal reactions occurred in 3.9% of first donations by males and 3.5% of first donations by females compared to in 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively, of repeat donations. Associations of vasovagal reactions with other factors including age, body weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure were similar in first-time and repeat donors. Needle-related complications occurred in 0.2% of male and 0.5% of female first-time donations and in 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, of repeat donations. Among first-time donors, the return rate within 1 year was 82% following an uncomplicated first donation, but 55% and 61% following vasovagal reactions and needle-related complications, respectively; the corresponding percentages among repeat donors were 86%, 58% and 82%. Among first-time donors, females suffered less than males from vasovagal reactions. Other risk factors had similar associations among first-time and repeat donors. Vasovagal reactions and needle-related complications in both first-time and repeat donors are followed by reduced donor return.

  3. Estimating the risk of parvovirus B19 infection in blood donors and pregnant women in Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koji Nabae

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Seroepidemiological study of parvovirus B19 has not taken place for some 20 years in Japan. To estimate the risk of parvovirus B19 infection in Japan among blood donors and pregnant women in this century, a seroepidemiological survey and statistical modeling of the force of infection were conducted. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The time- and age-specific seroprevalence data were suggestive of strong age-dependency in the risk of infection. Employing a piecewise constant model, the highest forces of infection of 0.05 and 0.12 per year were observed among those aged 0-4 and 5-9 years, respectively, while estimates among older individuals were less than 0.01 per year. Analyzing the antigen detection data among blood donors, the age-specific proportion positive was highest among those aged 30-39 years, agreeing with the presence of dip in seroprevalence in this age-group. Among pregnant women, up to 107 fetal deaths and 21 hydrops fetalis were estimated to have occurred annually across Japan. CONCLUSIONS: Seroepidemiological profiles of PVB19 infection in Japan was characterized with particular emphasis on the risk of infection in blood donors and the burden of infection among pregnant women. When a vaccine becomes available in the future, a similar seroepidemiological study is expected to play a key role in planning the appropriate immunization policy.

  4. Tattoos and transfusion-transmitted disease risk: implications for the screening of blood donors in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sérgio de A. Nishioka

    Full Text Available Having a tattoo has been associated with serological evidence of hepatitis B and C viruses, as well as human immunodeficiency virus infections and syphilis; all of these are known to be transmissible by blood transfusion. These associations are of higher magnitude for individuals with nonprofessionally-applied tattoos and with two or more tattoos. Tattoos are common among drug addicts and prisoners, conditions that are also associated with transfusion-transmitted diseases. We examined the implications of these associations for the screening of blood donors in Brazil. Numbers of individuals who would be correctly or unnecessarily deferred from blood donation on the basis of the presence of tattoos, and on their number and type, were calculated for different prevalence situations based on published odds ratios. If having a tattoo was made a deferral criterion, cost savings (due to a reduced need for laboratory testing and subsequent follow-up would accrue at the expense of the deferral of appropriate donors. Restricting deferral to more `at-risk' sub-groups of tattooed individuals would correctly defer less individuals and would also reduce the numbers of potential donors unnecessarily deferred. Key factors in balancing cost savings and unnecessary deferrals include the magnitude of the pool of blood donors in the population, the prevalence of individuals with tattoos and the `culture' of tattoos in the population. Tattoos can therefore be an efficient criterion for the screening of blood donors in certain settings, a finding that requires corroboration from larger population-based studies.

  5. Estimating the risk of dengue transmission from Dutch blood donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oei, W; Lieshout-Krikke, R W; Kretzschmar, M E; Zaaijer, H L; Coutinho, R A; Eersel, M; Jubithana, B; Halabi, Y; Gerstenbluth, I; Maduro, E; Tromp, M; Janssen, M P

    2016-05-01

    The risk of dengue transmitted by travellers is known. Methods to estimate the transmission by transfusion (TT) risk from blood donors travelling to risk areas are available, for instance, the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT). This study aimed to validate the estimated risk from travelling donors obtained from EUFRAT. Surveillance data on notified dengue cases in Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean islands (Aruba, Curaçao, St. Maarten, Bonaire, St. Eustatius and Saba) in 2001-2011 was used to calculate local incidence rates. Information on travel and donation behaviour of Dutch donors was collected. With the EUFRAT model, the TT risks from Dutch travelling donors were calculated. Model estimates were compared with the number of infections in Dutch travellers found by laboratory tests in the Netherlands. The expected cumulative number of donors becoming infected during travels to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean from 2001 to 2011 was estimated at 5 (95% CI, 2-11) and 86 (45-179), respectively. The infection risk inferred from the laboratory-based study was 19 (9-61) and 28 (14-92). Given the independence of the data sources, these estimates are remarkably close. The model estimated that 0·02 (0·001-0·06) and 0·40 (0·01-1·4) recipients would have been infected by these travelling donors. The EUFRAT model provided an estimate close to actual observed number of dengue infections. The dengue TT risk among Dutch travelling donors can be estimated using basic transmission, travel and donation information. The TT risk from Dutch donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean is small. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  6. The Risk of Transplant Failure With HLA Mismatch in First Adult Kidney Allografts 2: Living Donors, Summary, Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Robert C; Opelz, Gerhard; Weil, E Jennifer; McGarvey, Chelsea J; Chakkera, Harini A

    2017-05-01

    Allografts from living donors survive longer than those from deceased donors but the role of HLA mismatching in living kidney donation is still in question. We examined the effect of HLA compatibility on kidney allograft survival from living donors by studying all first adult kidney transplants performed in the United States over 25 years. Using the United Network for Organ Sharing data, we identified first kidney transplants between October 1, 1987, and December 31, 2013. Recipients were classified by their number of HLA mismatches and stratified by donor origin. Cox multivariate regression analyses adjusting for recipient and donor transplant characteristics were performed to determine impact of HLA compatibility on kidney allograft survival for all living donors and for living related and living unrelated subsets. There were 66 596 first adult transplants from living donors with 348 960 years of follow-up. We found a linear relationship between HLA mismatch and allograft survival. In adjusted analyses, among all living donors, 1 mismatch conferred a 44% higher risk, whereas 6 mismatches conferred a twofold higher risk of allograft failure. When using 0-mismatched full siblings as a reference, living-donor kidneys reduce the hazard of failure by approximately 34% when compared with deceased donors. Twenty-five years of transplant experience, stratified by donor source, was summarized and presented as a guide for allocation. These data reinforce the importance of optimizing HLA matching to further improve survival in first adult kidney allografts in the future, especially in living unrelated donations, when possible.

  7. [ALAT and viral RNA as risk factors in 68 blood donors with anti-hepatitis C antibodies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tullen, E; De Saussure, P; Soulier-Lauper, M

    1993-01-23

    Determine the risk factors in blood donors with anti hepatitis C antibodies (anti-HCV ab) possible liver involvement and evaluation of their infectious potential by a search for viral RNA in blood. Between July 1990 and October 1991, 19,632 blood donors were screened for hepatitis C. Antibodies to HCV were detected in 74 donors (2nd generation ELISA, Abbott). We evaluated the risk factors, determined ALAT levels and looked for circulating RNA virus by amplification of the non-coding region of the viral genome (RTPCR) in 68 of these 74 donors screened. A control was chosen arbitrarily from 103 donors with high ALAT levels, but with no antibodies to HCV nor detectable circulating viral DNA. The prevalence of anti-HCV ab in blood donors in 0.37%. No risk factor was found in 29 donors (43%). Parenteral exposure (former i.v. drug addiction and history of transfusions) was found to be the mode of transmission of hepatitis C in 23 donors (34%). History of NANB jaundice (non-post transfusion) was reported in 1 donor (1%). The remaining 15 donors (22%) were found to have minor risk factors - either isolated or in combination (exposure, tatoos, multiple sexual partners). Former i.v. drug addiction (p = 0.0000006) as well as a history of transfusions (p = 0.0071) are significantly more frequent in the group of donors with antibodies to HCV. None of the 35 sexual partners of the tested donors proved to be positive. 21 donors (30%) had high ALAT (+2 SD). Viral RNA was detected in blood of 26 donors (38%). The proportion of cases with positive viral RNA was 61% if only those donors with high ALAT levels were taken into consideration (13 positive of 21). Risk factors were found in 39 donors (57%) with antibodies to HCV. History of parenteral exposure was found to be significantly more frequent than in the control group (p = 0.0000054). Sexual transmission within couples was not demonstrated in the population tested. A positive PCR test is a probable indicator of a continuous

  8. HTLV-I/II and blood donors: determinants associated with seropositivity in a low risk population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernadette Catalan Soares

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Blood donors in Brazil have been routinely screened for HTLV-I/II since 1993. A study was performed to estimate the prevalence of HTLV-I/II infection in a low risk population and to better understand determinants associated with seropositivity. METHODS: HTLV-I/II seropositive (n=135, indeterminate (n=167 and seronegative blood donors (n=116 were enrolled in an open prevalence prospective cohort study. A cross-sectional epidemiological study of positive, indeterminate and seronegative HTLV-I/II subjects was conducted to assess behavioral and environmental risk factors for seropositivity. HTLV-I/II serological status was confirmed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EIA and Western blot (WB. RESULTS: The three groups were not homogeneous. HTLV-I/II seropositivity was associated to past blood transfusion and years of schooling, a marker of socioeconomic status, and use of non-intravenous illegal drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The study results reinforce the importance of continuous monitoring and improvement of blood donor selection process.

  9. Hepatitis C virus risk factors in blood donors from Sohag governorate, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Abdelaziz

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Egypt has the highest prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV worldwide. Most of data came from lower Egypt regions (Cairo and northern to it. So, we decided to study risk factors and prevalence of HCV transmission in our governorate. In this cross sectional study, we recruited 631 blood donors from April, 2011 to March 2012 who were tested for anti-HCV, HBs Ag, anti- HBc and anti-HIV. Fifty seven donors were excluded as they are HBs Ag and anti-HBc positive. We found 138 (24% HCV seropositive participants. Logistic regression final model demonstrated that endoscopy, hospital admission, socioeconomic status, IV drug use and age made a significant contribution to prediction (P=0.0001. The level of education also made significant contribution to prediction (P=0.014. In conclusion, it is wise to determine high HCV prevalence areas and risk factors for its seropositivity then build up a governorate suitable infection control program concentrating upon prevention more than treatment of HCV patients. Also, the introduction of pre-test and post-test counseling in blood banks will help in better donor selection and early detection of patients.

  10. Donor testing and risk: current prevalence, incidence, and residual risk of transfusion-transmissible agents in US allogeneic donations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Shimian; Stramer, Susan L; Dodd, Roger Y

    2012-04-01

    Over the past 20 years, there has been a major increase in the safety of the blood supply, as demonstrated by declining rates of posttransfusion infection and reductions in estimated residual risk for such infections. Reliable estimates of residual risk have been possible within the American Red Cross system because of the availability of a large amount of reliable and consistent data on donations and infectious disease testing results. Among allogeneic blood donations, the prevalence rates of infection markers for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus have decreased over time, although rates for markers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and human T-cell lymphotropic virus did not. The incidence (/100 000 person-years) of HIV and HCV among repeat donors showed apparent increases from 1.55 and 1.89 in 2000 through 2001 to 2.16 and 2.98 in 2007 through 2008. These observed fluctuations confirm the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation. The residual risk of HIV, HCV, and human T-cell lymphotropic virus among all allogeneic donations is currently below 1 per 1 million donations, and that of hepatitis B surface antigen is close to 1 per 300 000 donations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk Factors for Bloodstream Infection After Living-donor Liver Transplantation in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoji, Kensuke; Funaki, Takanori; Kasahara, Mureo; Sakamoto, Seisuke; Fukuda, Akinari; Vaida, Florin; Ito, Kenta; Miyairi, Isao; Saitoh, Akihiko

    2015-10-01

    Postoperative bloodstream infection (BSI) is the most important determinant of recipient morbidity and mortality after liver transplantation (LT). Children who underwent LT are at the highest risk of developing BSI because of the significant surgical intervention, use of multiple devices, and administration of immunosuppressive agents. However, information regarding the risk factors for BSI in children after LT is limited. We retrospectively reviewed 210 children who underwent living-donor LT at the largest pediatric LT center in Japan. Patients' characteristics, blood culture results and clinical outcomes were extracted from electronic medical records. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the risk factors for BSI. Among the 210 LT recipients, 53 (25%) recipients experienced 86 episodes of BSI during the observational period. The source of the BSI was identified only in 38%: catheter-related BSI (27%) peritonitis (7%), urinary tract infection (2%), pneumonia (1%) and infectious endocarditis (1%). A multivariate analysis demonstrated that body weight (P = 0.03), volume of blood loss during LT (P 24 months), blood loss and pediatric end-stage liver disease/model for end-stage liver disease versus positive CMV antigenemia. The volume of blood loss, postoperative CMV antigenemia positivity and body weight were associated with the development of BSI after LT in pediatric living-donor recipients. To identify the age-specific predictors of BSI in children who underwent LT, age-specific analyses are crucial.

  12. The Risk of Transplant Failure With HLA Mismatch in First Adult Kidney Allografts From Deceased Donors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Robert C; Opelz, Gerhard; McGarvey, Chelsea J; Weil, E Jennifer; Chakkera, Harini A

    2016-05-01

    Since the beginning of the technology, there has been active debate about the role of human leucocyte antigen (HLA) matching in kidney allograft survival. Recent studies have reported diminishing importance of HLA matching, which have, in turn, been challenged by reports that suggest the continuing importance of these loci. Given the controversies, we examined the effect of HLA compatibility on kidney allograft survival by studying all first adult kidney transplants in the United States from a deceased donor. Using the United Network for Organ Sharing data, we identified first deceased donor kidney transplants between October 1, 1987, and December 31, 2013. Recipients were classified by their number of HLA mismatches. Cox multivariate regression analyses adjusting for recipient and donor transplant characteristics were performed to determine the impact of HLA compatibility on kidney allograft survival. Study cohort included 189 141 first adult kidney alone transplants, with a total of 994 558 years of kidney allograft follow-up time. Analyses adjusted for recipient and donor characteristics demonstrated a 13% higher risk (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.21) with 1 mismatch and a 64% higher risk (hazard ratio, 1.64, 95% confidence interval, 1.56-1.73) with 6 mismatches. Dividing the mismatch categories into 27 ordered permutations, and testing their 57 within mismatch category differences, demonstrated that all but 1 were equal, independent of locus. A significant linear relationship of hazard ratios was associated with HLA mismatch and affects allograft survival even during the recent periods of increasing success in renal transplantation.

  13. Deferral for low hemoglobin is not associated with increased risk of infection in Danish blood donors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kotze, Sebastian Ranzi; Pedersen, Ole B; Petersen, Mikkel S

    2017-01-01

    Donations and Transfusions database, 497,390 donors were followed after 5,458,499 donations in health registers. With 1,339,362 person-years of follow-up, Andersen-Gill Cox regression was used to study the association of Hb levels below deferral thresholds, very low Hb levels (in the lowest 0.1 percentile......% CI, 0.88-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Neither Hb levels below deferral thresholds nor very low or declining Hb levels were associated with an increased risk of infection. This is reassuring, because blood donation can lead to lower Hb levels....

  14. Slow graft function and related risk factors in living donor kidney transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lesan Pezeshki M.

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: While excellent organ quality and ideal transplant conditions eliminate many of the known factors that compromise initial graft function (IGF, slow graft function (SGF, still occurs after living donor kidney transplantation (LDKT. The aim of our current study is determination SGF frequency and its risk factors in LDKT Methods: In this prospective study, between April 2004 and March 2006, data were collected on 340 LDKT, in Baghiyattallah Hospital, Tehran. Recipients were analyzed in two groups based on initial graft function (IGF: Creatinine <3 mg/dl 5 day after transplantation, SGF: Creatinine ≥ 3 mg/dl 5 day after transplantation with out dialysis in the first week. Donors' and recipients' characteristics and recipient lab. data were compared in two groups by chi-square, Mann-whitney & independent samples T-test.Results: The incidence of SGF was 22 (6.2% and IGF 318 (89.8%, Recipients' BMI in IGF were 22.1±3.9 and in SGF were 25.3±3.8 (P=0.001 95% Cl 1.097-1.401 OR= 1.24. SGF relative frequency in female donors is more than male donors. A multivariate analysis model confirms this significant difference. (P=0.044 95% Cl 1.028-7.971 OR= 2.862. SGF relative frequency in PRA (Panel Reactive Antibody positive recipients are more than negative ones. A multivariate analysis model confirms this significant difference. (P=0.007 95%Cl 1.755-35.280 OR= 7.849. Recipients' age and donors' BMI are significant in univariate analysis (P=0.002 & P=0.029 respectively but multivariate analysis model dose not confirm those significance. Serum ca & P & PTH levels don't have significant difference between IGF & SGF. Using calcium channels blockers have not a protective effect. Conclusions: We conclude that negative PRA and lower recipient BMI have protective effects on SGF. Recipients with female donors have higher chance to develop SGF. We recommend recipients reduce their BMI before transplantation. The male donors

  15. Demographic, risk factors and motivations among blood donors with reactive serologic tests for syphilis in São Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, S C; de Almeida-Neto, C; Nishiya, A S; Oliveira, C D L; Ferreira, J E; Alencar, C S; Levi, J E; Salles, N A; Mendrone, A; Sabino, E C

    2014-06-01

    To identify the demographic characteristics, risk factors and motivations for donating among blood donors with reactive serologic tests for syphilis. Post-donation interviews with syphilis seropositive blood donors improve recruitment and screening strategies. This case-control study compares 75 Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL) > 8, EIA+ (enzyme immunoassay) and FTA-ABS+ (fluorescent treponemal antibody); 80 VDRL-, EIA+ and FTA-ABS+; and 34 VDRL- and EIA- donors between 2004 and 2009. Donors were assessed by their demographic characteristics, sexual behaviour, history of alcohol and illicit drugs use, and motivations to donate. Donors with VDRL > 8 were more likely to be divorced [AOR = 12·53; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·30-120·81], to have had more than six sexual partners (AOR=7·1; 95% CI 1·12-44·62) and to report male-male-sex in the past 12 months (AOR=8·18; 95% CI 1·78-37·60). Donors with VDRL-, EIA+ and FTA-ABS+ were less likely to be female (AOR=0·26; 95% CI 0·07-0·96), more likely to be older (AOR=10·2; 95% CI 2·45-42·58 ≥ 39 and illicit drugs use; 30·7% (VDRL > 8) and 12·5% (VDRL-, EIA+ and FTA-ABS+) of donors reported that they had been at risk for HIV infection (P = 0·004). One-third of donors came to the blood bank to help a friend or a relative who needed blood. Although donors exposed to syphilis reported and recognised some high risk behaviour, most were motivated by direct appeal to donate blood. Monitoring the risk profile of blood donors can benefit public health and improve blood safety. © 2014 The Authors. Transfusion Medicine © 2014 British Blood Transfusion Society.

  16. Donor Human Milk for the High-Risk Infant: Preparation, Safety, and Usage Options in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The use of donor human milk is increasing for high-risk infants, primarily for infants born weighing Pasteurized donor milk may be considered in situations in which the supply of maternal milk is insufficient. The use of pasteurized donor milk is safe when appropriate measures are used to screen donors and collect, store, and pasteurize the milk and then distribute it through established human milk banks. The use of nonpasteurized donor milk and other forms of direct, Internet-based, or informal human milk sharing does not involve this level of safety and is not recommended. It is important that health care providers counsel families considering milk sharing about the risks of bacterial or viral contamination of nonpasteurized human milk and about the possibilities of exposure to medications, drugs, or herbs in human milk. Currently, the use of pasteurized donor milk is limited by its availability and affordability. The development of public policy to improve and expand access to pasteurized donor milk, including policies that support improved governmental and private financial support for donor milk banks and the use of donor milk, is important. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  17. Deceased-Donor Apolipoprotein L1 Renal-Risk Variants Have Minimal Effects on Liver Transplant Outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casey R Dorr

    Full Text Available Apolipoprotein L1 gene (APOL1 G1 and G2 renal-risk variants, common in populations with recent African ancestry, are strongly associated with non-diabetic nephropathy, end-stage kidney disease, and shorter allograft survival in deceased-donor kidneys (autosomal recessive inheritance. Circulating APOL1 protein is synthesized primarily in the liver and hydrodynamic gene delivery of APOL1 G1 and G2 risk variants has caused hepatic necrosis in a murine model.To evaluate the impact of these variants in liver transplantation, this multicenter study investigated the association of APOL1 G1 and G2 alleles in deceased African American liver donors with allograft survival. Transplant recipients were followed for liver allograft survival using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients.Of the 639 liver donors evaluated, 247 had no APOL1 risk allele, 300 had 1 risk allele, and 92 had 2 risk alleles. Graft failure assessed at 15 days, 6 months, 1 year and total was not significantly associated with donor APOL1 genotype (p-values = 0.25, 0.19, 0.67 and 0.89, respectively.In contrast to kidney transplantation, deceased-donor APOL1 G1 and G2 risk variants do not significantly impact outcomes in liver transplantation.

  18. The role of P24 antigen screening in reducing the risk of HIV transmission by scronegetive bone allograft donors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bryce, R.N.; Morgan, A.F.; Malhotra, R.

    1999-01-01

    Disease transmission is an infrequent but important risk associated with bone transplantation. Human immunodeficiency virus infection is particularly important because of delay in seroconversion of the potential donor. This is so-call 'window' period may extend for several months. Almost all human immunodeficiency virus transmission via the transplantation of blood or tissue since the implementation of anti-HIV screening in 1985 has been during this window period. The performance of newer assays to detect viral and serologic markers may reduce this risk of disease transmission. We present the strategy employed at the Queensland Bone Bank to minimise the risk of HIV transmission through an infected donor

  19. Risk Factors for Transfusion Transmissible Infections Elicited on Post Donation Counselling in Blood Donors: Need to Strengthen Pre-donation Counselling

    OpenAIRE

    Sachdev, Suchet; Mittal, Kshitija; Patidar, Gopal; Marwaha, Neelam; Sharma, Ratti Ram; Duseja, Ajay Kumar; Chawla, Yogesh Kumar; Arora, Sunil Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Donor notification and counselling transforms the legal and ethical requirement of disclosure of transfusion transmissible infection (TTI) in a blood donor into practice. The present study was done to assess the response to the disclosure of TTI reactivity results in blood donors, assess the risk factors in blood donors and follow the compliance of the disclosure and clinical referral in a population of blood donors who are difficult to convince that they may be harbouring infections apparent...

  20. Risk factors of hepatitis B virus infection among blood donors in Duhok city, Kurdistan Region, Iraq.

    Science.gov (United States)

    R Hussein, Nawfal

    2018-01-01

    Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a public health problem. The lack of information about the seroprevalence and risk factors is an obstacle for preventive public health plans to reduce the burden of viral hepatitis. Therefore, this study was conducted in Iraq, where no studies had been performed to determine the prevalence and risk factors of HBV infection. Blood samples were collected form 438 blood donors attending blood bank in Duhok city. Serum samples were tested for HBV core-antibodies (HBcAb) and HBV surface-antigen (HBsAg) by ELISA. Various risk factors were recorded and multivariate analysis was performed. 5/438 (1.14%) of the subjects were HBsAg positive (HBsAg and HBcAb positive) and 36/438 (8.2%) were HBcAb positive. Hence, 41 cases were exposed to HBV and data analysis was based on that. Univariate analysis showed that there were significant associations between history of illegitimate sexual contact, history of alcohol or history of dental surgeries and HBV exposure (p<0.05 for all). Then, multivariate analysis was conducted to find HBV exposure predictive factors. It was found that history of dental surgery was a predictive factor for exposure to the virus (P=0.03, OR: 2.397). This study suggested that the history of dental surgery was predictive for HBV transmission in Duhok city. Further population-based study is needed to determine HBV risk factors in the society and public health plan based on that should be considered.

  1. Results from a horizon scan on risks associated with transplantation of human organs, tissues and cells: from donor to patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herberts, C A; Park, M V D Z; Pot, J W G A; de Vries, C G J C A

    2015-03-01

    The successful transplantation of human materials such as organs, tissues and cells into patients does not only depend on the benefits, but also on the mitigation of risks. To gain insight into recent publications on risks associated with the process of transferring human materials from donor to recipient we performed a horizon scan by reviewing scientific literature and news websites of 2011 on this subject. We found there is ample information on how extended donor criteria, such as donor age, affect the survival rates of organs or patients. Interestingly, gender mismatch does not appear to be a major risk factor in organ rejection. Data on risks of donor tumor transmission was very scarce; however, risk categories for various tumor types have been suggested. In order to avoid rejection, a lot of research is directed towards engineering tissues from a patient's own tissues and cells. Some but not all of these developments have reached the clinic. Developments in the field of stem cell therapy are rapid. However, many hurdles are yet to be overcome before these cells can be applied on a large scale in the clinic. The processes leading to genetic abnormalities in cells differentiated from stem cells need to be identified in order to avoid transplantation of aberrant cells. New insights have been obtained on storage and preservation of human materials, a critical step for success of their clinical use. Likewise, quality management systems have been shown to improve the quality and safety of human materials used for transplantation.

  2. Prevalence, Incidence, and Residual Risks for Transfusion Transmitted HIV-1/2 Infection among Chinese Blood Donors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jingxing; Liu, Jing; Yao, Fuzhu; Wen, Guoxin; Li, Julin; Huang, Yi; Lv, Yunlai; Wen, Xiuqiong; Wright, David; Yu, Qilu; Guo, Nan; Ness, Paul; Shan, Hua

    2012-01-01

    Background There is little data on HIV prevalence, incidence or residual risks for transfusion transmitted HIV infection among Chinese blood donors. Methods Donations from five Chinese blood centers in 2008–2010 were screened using two rounds of ELISA testing for anti-HIV-1/2. A reactive result in either or both rounds led to Western Blot confirmatory testing. HIV prevalence and demographic correlates among first time donors, incidence rate and demographic correlates among repeat donors were examined. Weighted multivariable logistic regression analysis examined correlates of HIV confirmatory status among first time donors. Residual risks for transfusion transmitted HIV infection were evaluated based on incidence among repeat donors. Results Among 821,320 donations, 40% came from repeat donors.1,837 (0.34%) first time and 577 (0.17%) repeat donations screened reactive for anti-HIV-1/2, among which 1,310 and 419 were tested by Western Blot. 233 (17.7%) first time and 44 (10.5%) repeat donations were confirmed positive. Estimated prevalence was 66 infections per 100,000 (95% CI: 59–74) first time donors. Estimated incidence was 9/100,000 (95% CI: 7–12) person-years among repeat donors. Weighted multivariable logistic regression analysis indicate that first time donors 26–45 years old were 1.6–1.8 times likely to be HIV positive than those 25 years and younger. Donors with some college or above education were less likely to be HIV positive than those with middle school education, ORs ranging from 0.35 to 0.60. Minority were 1.6 times likely to be HIV positive than Han majority donors (OR: 1.6; CI: 1.2–2.1). No difference in prevalence was found between gender. Current HIV TTI residual risk was 5.4 (1.2–12.5) infections per million whole blood donations. Conclusion Despite the declining HIV epidemic China, estimated residual risks for transfusion transmitted HIV infection are still high, highlighting the potential blood safety yield of NAT implementation

  3. Predisposing risk factors for delirium in living donor liver transplantation patients in intensive care units.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szu-Han Wang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Delirium is one of the main causes of increased length of intensive care unit (ICU stay among patients who have undergone living donor liver transplantation (LDLT. We aimed to evaluate risk factors for delirium after LDLT as well as to investigate whether delirium impacts the length of ICU and hospital stay. METHODS: Seventy-eight patients who underwent LDLT during the period January 2010 to December 2012 at a single medical center were enrolled. The Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU scale was used to diagnose delirium. Preoperative, postoperative, and hematologic factors were included as potential risk factors for developing delirium. RESULTS: During the study period, delirium was diagnosed in 37 (47.4% patients after LDLT. The mean onset of symptoms occurred 7.0±5.5 days after surgery and the mean duration of symptoms was 5.0±2.6 days. The length of stay in the ICU for patients with delirium (39.8±28.1 days was significantly longer than that for patients without delirium (29.3±19.0 days (p<0.05. Risk factors associated with delirium included history of alcohol abuse [odds ratio (OR = 6.40, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.85-22.06], preoperative hepatic encephalopathy (OR = 4.45, 95% CI: 1.36-14.51, APACHE II score ≥16 (OR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.71-2.56, and duration of endotracheal intubation ≥5 days (OR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.52-2.23. CONCLUSIONS: History of alcohol abuse, preoperative hepatic encephalopathy, APACHE II scores ≥16 and endotracheal intubation ≥5 days were predictive of developing delirium in the ICU following liver transplantation surgery and were associated with increased length of ICU and hospital stay.

  4. Exploring the Role of Gender and Risk Perceptions in People's Decisions to Register as a Bone Marrow Donor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mclaren, Patrick J.; Hyde, Melissa K.; White, Katherine M.

    2012-01-01

    Increasing the number of bone marrow (BM) donors is important to ensure sufficient diversity on BM registries to meet the needs of patients. This study used an experimental approach to test the hypothesis that providing information about the risks of BM donation to allay unsubstantiated fears would reduce male and female participants' perceptions…

  5. A high risk of hepatitis C infection among Egyptian blood donors: the role of parenteral drug abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassily, S; Hyams, K C; Fouad, R A; Samaan, M D; Hibbs, R G

    1995-06-01

    To determine the prevalence and risk factors of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among Egyptian blood donors, 188 consecutive adult blood donors from four hospitals and one temporary donor center located in Cairo, Egypt were evaluated. Sera were tested for HCV antibodies (anti-HCV) using second-generation enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test kits. Sera that were repeatedly reactive by ELISA were further verified by a second-generation recombinant immunoblot assay (RIBA). Antibodies to HCV were detected by RIBA in 26.6% of the blood donors, which is higher than the 10-19% prevalence of antibody found in other studies of Egyptian blood donors. A history of selling blood (odds ratio [OR] = 12.1) and the use of illicit parenteral drugs (OR = 2.5) were significantly associated with anti-HCV seropositivity after controlling for age and gender. These data indicate that the use of illicit drugs may be one reason for high levels of reported HCV infection among Egyptian blood donors. These findings also indicate that Egyptian blood donors should be screened for anti-HCV and individuals who have a history of drug abuse should be deferred from donating blood.

  6. Risk Factors Associated with Ebola and Marburg Viruses Seroprevalence in Blood Donors in the Republic of Congo.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nanikaly Moyen

    Full Text Available Ebola and Marburg viruses (family Filoviridae, genera Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus cause haemorrhagic fevers in humans, often associated with high mortality rates. The presence of antibodies to Ebola virus (EBOV and Marburg virus (MARV has been reported in some African countries in individuals without a history of haemorrhagic fever. In this study, we present a MARV and EBOV seroprevalence study conducted amongst blood donors in the Republic of Congo and the analysis of risk factors for contact with EBOV.In 2011, we conducted a MARV and EBOV seroprevalence study amongst 809 blood donors recruited in rural (75; 9.3% and urban (734; 90.7% areas of the Republic of Congo. Serum titres of IgG antibodies to MARV and EBOV were assessed by indirect double-immunofluorescence microscopy. MARV seroprevalence was 0.5% (4 in 809 without any identified risk factors. Prevalence of IgG to EBOV was 2.5%, peaking at 4% in rural areas and in Pointe Noire. Independent risk factors identified by multivariate analysis were contact with bats and exposure to birds.This MARV and EBOV serological survey performed in the Republic of Congo identifies a probable role for environmental determinants of exposure to EBOV. It highlights the requirement for extending our understanding of the ecological and epidemiological risk of bats (previously identified as a potential ecological reservoir and birds as vectors of EBOV to humans, and characterising the protection potentially afforded by EBOV-specific antibodies as detected in blood donors.

  7. Deceased Organ Donors With a History of Increased Risk Behavior for the Transmission of Blood-Borne Viral Infection: The UK Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotter, Patrick B; Summers, Dominic M; Robb, Matthew; Hulme, William; Ushiro-Lumb, Ines; Watson, Christopher J E; Neuberger, James; Bradley, J Andrew

    2017-07-01

    Deceased organ donors are routinely screened for behaviors that increase the risk of transmissible blood-borne viral (BBV) infection, but the impact of this information on organ donation and transplant outcome is not well documented. Our aim was to establish the impact of such behavior on organ donation and utilization, as well transplant recipient outcomes. We identified all UK deceased organ donors from 2003 to 2015 with a disclosed history of increased risk behavior (IRB) including intravenous drug use (IVDU), imprisonment and increased risk sexual behavior. Of 17 262 potential donors, 659 (3.8%) had IRB for BBV and 285 (1.7%) were seropositive for BBV, of whom half had a history of IRB (mostly IVDU [78.5%]). Of actual donors with IRB, 393 were seronegative for viral markers at time of donation. A history of recent IVDU was associated with fewer potential donors proceeding to become actual organ donors (64% vs 75%, P = 0.007). Donors with IRB provided 1091 organs for transplantation (624 kidneys and 467 other organs). Transplant outcome was similar in recipients of organs from donors with and without IRB. There were 3 cases of unexpected hepatitis C virus transmission, all from an active IVDU donor who was hepatitis C virus seronegative at time of donation, but was found to be viremic on retrospective testing. Donors with a history of IRB provide a valuable source of organs for transplantation with good transplant outcomes and there is scope for increasing the use of organs from such donors.

  8. Ten years cardiovascular risk estimation according to Framingham score and non HDL-cholesterol in blood donors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graffigna, Mabel Nora; Berg, Gabriela; Migliano, Marta; Salgado, Pablo; Soutelo, Jimena; Musso, Carla

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is currently the primary cause of morbidity and mortality. (1) Assess the 10 years risk for CVD in Argentinean blood donors, according to Framingham score (updated by ATP III), (2) evaluate the prevalence of the MS, (3) evaluate non HDL-cholesterol level in this population as other risk for CVD. A prospective, epidemiological, transversal study was performed to evaluate 585 volunteer blood donors for two years. Non HDL-C was calculated as total cholesterol minus HDL-C and we evaluated the 10 years risk for CVD according to Framingham score (updated by ATP III). Metabolic syndrome prevalence was estimated according to ATP III and IDF criteria. Non HDL-C was (media±SD) 178.3±48.0 mg/dl in participants with MS and 143.7±39.3 mg/dl without MS (ATPIII) and 160.1±43.6 mg/dl in participants with MS and 139.8±43.1 mg/dl without MS (IDF). Participants with MS presented an OR of 3.1; IC 95% (2-5) of CVD according to de Framingham score. Individuals with MS and elevated non HDL-C are at a higher estimated risk for cardiovascular events in the next 10 years according to the Framingham risk score. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Comparison of risk factors among blood donors, volunteers and replacement individuals, infected or not by hepatitis C virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MJDB Felippe

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Hepatitis C is transmitted primarily parenterally by contaminated blood and is often associated with: intravenous drug abuse, invasive procedures, blood transfusions, acupuncture, tattooing, and alcohol and tobacco use. This study aimed to quantify and evaluate the risk factors among blood donors, volunteer blood donors and replacement individuals, infected or not by the C virus. The main transmission routes of C virus were identified in 55 men and 25 women (GI monitored by the Ambulatory Unit of the Department of Tropical Diseases, Botucatu Medical School, and in 24 men and 26 women (GII, all active blood donors at the Bauru State Hospital Transfusional Agency. Both groups were similar in: tobacco and alcohol consumption, sexual behavior, tattooing and illicit drug use. The duration of alcohol and tobacco consumption and blood transfusions in GI were longer, whereas the option for steady partners, condom use, disposable materials and piercings were predominant in GII. In conclusion, the risk factors for hepatitis C demonstrate the necessity of health policies that act on the primary and secondary prevention levels (respectively, reduction of infection incidence and hepatopathy risk.

  10. Renal transplantation across the donor-specific antibody barrier: Graft outcome and cancer risk after desensitization therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ching-Yao; Lee, Chih-Yuan; Yeh, Chi-Chuan; Tsai, Meng-Kun

    2016-06-01

    Desensitization regimens including use of intravenous immune globulin and rituximab have been reported to overcome renal transplant hyperacute rejection. A retrospective case-control study was performed to assess the results and complications of renal transplantation with desensitization therapy for donor-specific antibody (DSA) in a transplant center in Asia, where donor exchange was usually not allowed. Between January 2007 and December 2013, 22 patients with DSA received live-donor renal transplantation after desensitization (DSA group). During the same period, the DSA group was compared to the NSA group (152 renal transplants) who had no specific antibody to the donors (66 from deceased donors and 86 from living relatives). Rejection, renal function, graft and patient survival rates, infection, and cancer incidence were reviewed and analyzed from medical records. The DSA group (46.8%) had significantly higher acute rejection rates than the NSA group (13.7%) at the 1-year follow-up. The estimated renal function, 5-year graft, and patient survival rates were comparable between the groups. The DSA group (19.6%) had significantly higher 5-year de novo cancer incidence than the NSA group (8.5%; p = 0.028); three patients of the DSA group developed urothelial carcinoma 17.0 ± 3.0 months after transplantation. By using stepwise Cox regression analysis, desensitization therapy was identified as the sole independent risk factor for post-transplant urothelial carcinoma. When compared to renal transplantation without DSA, desensitization therapy for DSA resulted in equivalent renal transplant outcome but potentially increased risk of urothelial carcinoma after transplantation. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. Risk of Exposure to Zika Virus and Impact on Cord Blood Banking and Adult Unrelated Donors in Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation: The Canadian Blood Services Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Zachary; Morris, Gail; Campbell, Todd; Mostert, Karen; Dibdin, Nicholas; Fearon, Margaret; Elmoazzen, Heidi; Mercer, Dena; Young, Kimberly; Allan, David

    2018-04-01

    Zika virus has emerged as a potential threat to the Canadian blood supply system. Stem cell donors within Canadian Blood Services' Cord Blood Bank (CBB) and OneMatch Stem Cell and Marrow Network (OM) now undergo screening measures designed to reduce the risk of Zika virus transmission. The impact these screening measures have on cord blood and unrelated adult stem cell donations is currently unknown. Among 146 donor workups initiated by OM between July 2016 and May 2017, 102 were completed and 44 workups were canceled. There were 17 potential donors (11.6%) with a risk of Zika virus exposure identified by the donor questionnaire (13 completed, 4 canceled workups). None of the workups involved a donor diagnosed with confirmed Zika virus within the past 6 months. Only 1 of the 44 canceled workups (and only 1 of 4 cases with a risk of Zika transmission) was canceled because of the risk of Zika transmission, and a backup donor was selected. Canadian Blood Services' CBB identified 25 of 875 cord blood units (2.9%) from women who donated their infants' cord blood and underwent screening that otherwise met the initial cell number thresholds for banking and had at least 1 risk factor for exposure to Zika virus. No women were diagnosed with Zika virus at any point of their pregnancy. All 25 units were discarded. Unrelated donors at OM have a higher incidence of a risk of exposure to Zika virus compared with cord blood donors. Only rarely did transplant centers cancel donor workups due to potential Zika virus exposure. The impact of screening for Zika virus exposure risk on cord blood banking was minor. Continued vigilance and surveillance is recommended. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Mechanism of immune tolerance induced by donor derived immature dendritic cells in rat high-risk corneal transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu-Dong Zhao

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To study the role of immature dendritic cells (imDCs on immune tolerance in rat penetrating keratoplasty (PKP in high-risk eyes and to investigate the mechanism of immune hyporesponsiveness induced by donor-derived imDCs. METHODS: Seventy-five SD rats (recipient and 39 Wistar rats (donor were randomly divided into 3 groups: control, imDC and mature dendritic cell (mDC group respectively. Using a model of orthotopic corneal transplantation in which allografts were placed in neovascularized high-risk eyes of recipient rat. Corneal neovascularization was induced by alkaline burn in the central cornea of recipient rat. Recipients in imDC group or mDC group were injected donor bone marrow-derived imDCs or mDCs of 1×106 respectively 1 week before corneal transplantation via tail vein. Control rat received the same volume of PBS. In each group, 16 recipients were kept for determination of survival time and other 9 recipients were executed on day 3, 7 and 14 after transplantation. Cornea was harvested for hematoxylin-eosin staining and acute rejection evaluation, Western blot was used to detect the expression level of Foxp3. RESULTS: The mean survival time of imDC group was significantly longer than that of control and mDC groups (all P<0.05. The expression level of Foxp3 on CD4+CD25+T cells of imDC group (2.24±0.18 was significantly higher than that in the control (1.68±0.09 and mDC groups (1.46±0.13 (all P<0.05. CONCLUSION: Donor-derived imDC is an effective treatment in inducing immune hyporesponsiveness in rat PKP. The mechanism of immune tolerance induced by imDC might be inhibit T lymphocytes responsiveness by regulatory T cells.

  13. Incidence of and risk factors for bile duct stones after living donor liver transplantation: An analysis of 100 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senoo, Takemasa; Ichikawa, Tatsuki; Taura, Naota; Miyaaki, Hisamitsu; Miuma, Satoshi; Shibata, Hidetaka; Honda, Takuya; Takatsuki, Mitsuhisa; Hidaka, Masaaki; Soyama, Akihiko; Eguchi, Susumu; Nakao, Kazuhiko

    2015-09-01

    Although bile duct stone (BDS) is one of the biliary complications of liver transplantation, analytical studies, particularly on living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) cases, are rare. This study aimed to clarify the incidence of and risk factors for BDS following LDLT. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 100 patients who underwent LDLT at our institute from August 2000 to May 2012, and analyzed their clinical characteristics and risk factors for BDS. Of these, 10 patients (10.0%) developed BDS during the observation period. The median follow-up period to BDS diagnosis was 45.5 months (range, 5-84) after LDLT. Univariate analysis revealed male sex, right lobe graft and bile duct strictures as factors that significantly correlated with BDS formation. Multivariate analysis revealed bile duct strictures (odds ratio, 7.17; P = 0.011) and right lobe graft (odds ratio, 10.20; P = 0.040) to be independent risk factors for BDS formation. One patient with BDS and biliary strictures succumbed to sepsis from cholangitis. In the present study, right lobe graft and bile duct strictures are independent risk factors for BDS formation after LDLT. More careful observation and monitoring are required in the patients with high-risk factors. © 2014 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

  14. Decision-making and risk-assessment in living liver donation: how informed is the informed consent of donors? A qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papachristou, Christina; Walter, Marc; Marc, Walter; Frommer, Joerg; Frommer, Jeorg; Klapp, Burghard F

    2010-01-01

    The practice of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) has been increasing over the past 20 years. In LDLT, a healthy individual offers a substantial part of his or her liver (up to 60%) for the benefit of a terminally-ill recipient. The aim of the study was to identify decision-making and risk-assessment patterns of living liver donors and assess whether the principles of informed consent and decision autonomy are being met. The authors conducted semistructured clinical interviews with 28 donors before transplantation. The authors found that a decision was being reached before a decision-making process could take place. Surgery risks were perceived and processed in different ways, including the factors of risk-awareness, denial, limited acceptance, and fatalism. The authors assess concepts of informed consent and decision autonomy in LDLT, and offer suggestions for donor selection.

  15. Risk Factors for Transfusion Transmissible Infections Elicited on Post Donation Counselling in Blood Donors: Need to Strengthen Pre-donation Counselling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachdev, Suchet; Mittal, Kshitija; Patidar, Gopal; Marwaha, Neelam; Sharma, Ratti Ram; Duseja, Ajay Kumar; Chawla, Yogesh Kumar; Arora, Sunil Kumar

    2015-09-01

    Donor notification and counselling transforms the legal and ethical requirement of disclosure of transfusion transmissible infection (TTI) in a blood donor into practice. The present study was done to assess the response to the disclosure of TTI reactivity results in blood donors, assess the risk factors in blood donors and follow the compliance of the disclosure and clinical referral in a population of blood donors who are difficult to convince that they may be harbouring infections apparently in a healthy state today but with possible clinical disease consequences in the future. A retrospective study was conducted from April 2011 to November 2012. Screening was done using third generation ELISA kits used according to the manufacturer's directions; these kits were approved for use in blood banks by the Drug Controller General of India. Those testing repeat reactive were referred for further confirmation and management. The total number of TTI reactive donors was 787 (0.93 %, N = 83,865). The observed response rate in the present study is 21.6 % (167, N = 787). The risk factors for acquiring infections in TTI reactive donors were statistically significant history of high risk behaviour (20.3 %) for human immunodeficiency virus infection and history of jaundice in themselves, family or close contacts (16.1 %) for hepatitis B virus infection. One hundred and ten (65.8 %) of the referred donors were on outpatient clinical care when post-referral follow up was conducted. The study emphasises on continuing sensitization of blood donation camp organisers to the need of privacy during blood donor selection. The study also stresses the need to strengthen the pre-donation counselling at outdoor blood donation at the same time raise awareness amongst blood donors about the importance of post-donation counselling and follow up.

  16. Clinical Risk Scoring Models for Prediction of Acute Kidney Injury after Living Donor Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mi Hye Park

    Full Text Available Acute kidney injury (AKI is a frequent complication of liver transplantation and is associated with increased mortality. We identified the incidence and modifiable risk factors for AKI after living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT and constructed risk scoring models for AKI prediction. We retrospectively reviewed 538 cases of LDLT. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors for the prediction of AKI as defined by the RIFLE criteria (RIFLE = risk, injury, failure, loss, end stage. Three risk scoring models were developed in the retrospective cohort by including all variables that were significant in univariate analysis, or variables that were significant in multivariate analysis by backward or forward stepwise variable selection. The risk models were validated by way of cross-validation. The incidence of AKI was 27.3% (147/538 and 6.3% (34/538 required postoperative renal replacement therapy. Independent risk factors for AKI by multivariate analysis of forward stepwise variable selection included: body-mass index >27.5 kg/m2 [odds ratio (OR 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.32-4.55], serum albumin 20 (OR 2.01, 95%CI 1.17-3.44, operation time >600 min (OR 1.81, 95%CI 1.07-3.06, warm ischemic time >40 min (OR 2.61, 95%CI 1.55-4.38, postreperfusion syndrome (OR 2.96, 95%CI 1.55-4.38, mean blood glucose during the day of surgery >150 mg/dl (OR 1.66, 95%CI 1.01-2.70, cryoprecipitate > 6 units (OR 4.96, 95%CI 2.84-8.64, blood loss/body weight >60 ml/kg (OR 4.05, 95%CI 2.28-7.21, and calcineurin inhibitor use without combined mycophenolate mofetil (OR 1.87, 95%CI 1.14-3.06. Our risk models performed better than did a previously reported score by Utsumi et al. in our study cohort. Doses of calcineurin inhibitor should be reduced by combined use of mycophenolate mofetil to decrease postoperative AKI. Prospective randomized trials are required to address whether artificial modification of hypoalbuminemia, hyperglycemia

  17. A genetic risk factor for low serum ferritin levels in Danish blood donors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Erik; Grau, Katrine; Berg, Trine

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency is a frequent side effect of blood donation. In recent years, several studies have described genetic variants associated with iron concentrations. However, the impact of these variants on iron levels is unknown in blood donors. Knowledge of genetic variants....../or restless leg syndrome (RLS) were investigated in two groups of female blood donors. The first group had low iron stores (serum ferritin ≤ 12 µg/L, n = 657), and the second group had normal to high iron stores (serum ferritin > 30 µg/L, n = 645). Genotype distribution for each of the SNPs was compared......: A frequent polymorphism in BTBD9 was significantly associated with serum ferritin. This polymorphism has previously been associated with RLS, but not low iron stores in blood donors....

  18. Mitigation of the threat posed to transfusion by donors traveling to Zika-affected areas: a Canadian risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germain, Marc; Delage, Gilles; O'Brien, Sheila F; Grégoire, Yves; Fearon, Margaret; Devine, Dana

    2017-10-01

    The recent spread of the Zika virus to the Americas and the recognition that it can cause severe disease in the developing fetus has prompted the adoption of measures to mitigate the risk that this virus might pose to transfusion safety. In nonendemic countries, the risk to transfusion results from donors traveling to an endemic region. Canada implemented a 21-day temporary deferral for prospective donors who traveled to such regions. We present the rationale for this policy, including a quantitative risk assessment supported by a Monte Carlo simulation. The model considered the following parameters, each with specified values and ranges: the probability that a donor recently returned from a Zika-endemic region, the duration of travel to this region, the daily risk of acquiring Zika while in an endemic region, and the incubation and viremic periods. We ran the simulation 20 times, each with 10 million iterations. In the absence of any travel deferral, 32 donors (range, 20-46 donors) would be able to donate while still being at risk of transmitting Zika, corresponding to a rate of 1:312,500 (range, 1:217,000 to 1:500,000). None of these donors would be viremic beyond 21 days after returning from their travel, with a risk estimated at less than 1:200,000,000. A 21-day temporary travel deferral offers an extremely wide margin of safety for the possible transmission of Zika by a donation obtained from someone who recently returned from a country where the virus is circulating. © 2017 AABB.

  19. Disparate rates of acute rejection and donor-specific antibodies among high-immunologic risk renal transplant subgroups receiving antithymocyte globulin induction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Samir J; Suki, Wadi N; Loucks-DeVos, Jennifer; Graviss, Edward A; Nguyen, Duc T; Knight, Richard J; Kuten, Samantha A; Moore, Linda W; Teeter, Larry D; Gaber, Lillian W; Gaber, A Osama

    2016-08-01

    Lymphocyte-depleting induction lowers acute rejection (AR) rates among high-immunologic risk (HIR) renal transplant recipients, including African Americans (AAs), retransplants, and the sensitized. It is unclear whether different HIR subgroups experience similarly low rates of AR. We aimed to describe the incidence of AR and de novo donor-specific antibody (dnDSA) among HIR recipients categorized by age, race, or donor type. All received antithymocyte globulin (ATG) induction and triple maintenance immunosuppression. A total of 464 HIR recipients from 2007 to 2014 were reviewed. AR and dnDSA rates at 1 year for the entire population were 14% and 27%, respectively. AR ranged from 6.7% among living donor (LD) recipients to 30% in younger AA deceased donor (DD) recipients. De novo donor-specific antibody at 1 year ranged from 7% in older non-AA LD recipients to 32% in AAs. AA race remained as an independent risk factor for AR among DD recipients and for dnDSA among all HIR recipients. Development of both AR and dnDSA within the first year was associated with a 54% graft survival at 5 years and was an independent risk factor for graft loss. Despite utilization of recommended immunosuppression for HIR recipients, substantial disparities exist among subgroups, warranting further consideration of individualized immunosuppression in certain HIR subgroups. © 2016 Steunstichting ESOT.

  20. Risk of tumor transmission after thoracic allograft transplantation from adult donors with central nervous system neoplasm-A UNOS database study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hynes, Conor F; Ramakrishnan, Karthik; Alfares, Fahad A; Endicott, Kendal M; Hammond-Jack, Katrina; Zurakowski, David; Jonas, Richard A; Nath, Dilip S

    2017-04-01

    We analyzed the UNOS database to better define the risk of transmission of central nervous system (CNS) tumors from donors to adult recipients of thoracic organs. Data were procured from the Standard Transplant Analysis and Research dataset files. Donors with CNS tumors were identified, and recipients from these donors comprised the study group (Group I). The remaining recipients of organs from donors who did not have CNS tumors formed the control group (Group II). Incidence of recipient CNS tumors, donor-related malignancies, and overall survival were calculated and compared in addition to multivariable logistic regression. A cohort of 58 314 adult thoracic organ recipients were included, of which 337 received organs from donors who had documented CNS tumors (Group I). None of these recipients developed CNS tumors at a median follow-up of 72 months (IR: 30-130 months). Although overall mortality in terms of the percentage was higher in Group I than Group II (163/320=51% vs 22 123/52 691=42%), Kaplan-Meier curves indicate no significant difference in the time to death between the two groups (P=.92). There is little risk of transmission of the common nonaggressive CNS tumors to recipients of thoracic organs. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Renal transplantation across the donor-specific antibody barrier: Graft outcome and cancer risk after desensitization therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Yao Yang

    2016-06-01

    Conclusion: When compared to renal transplantation without DSA, desensitization therapy for DSA resulted in equivalent renal transplant outcome but potentially increased risk of urothelial carcinoma after transplantation.

  2. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Mcmanus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  3. Blood transfusion and iatrogenic risks in Mexico city: anti-Trypanosoma cruzi seroprevalence in 43,048 blood donors, evaluation of parasitemia, and electrocardiogram findings in seropositive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nidia Hernández-Becerril

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Iatrogenous transmission of Trypanosoma cruziby blood transfusion was suggested as a potential risk by Pellegrino (1949. Seropositive blood donors in Mexico were first reported in 1978, however, limited information is available due to small sampling, the use of heterogeneous serologic assays, and geographically limited studies. A wide survey carried out in 18 out of the 32 states of Mexico, showed a national mean of 1.6% seropositive among 64,969 donors, ranging from 0.2 to 2.8%. In the present study, we have screened 43,048 voluntary blood donors in a period of five years at the Instituto Nacional de Cardiología I. Chávez, a concentration hospital located in Mexico city which serves mainly the metropolitan area and accepts from all over the country. Standardized ELISA and IIF were used to identify seropositive individuals in addition to hemoculture, PCR and standard 12 lead ECG tests that were applied to a group of seropositive patients (29/161. The result showed a seropositivity of 0.37% (161/43,048. From the group of seropositive individuals 40% (12/29 were potential carriers of T. cruzi at the donation time and 5/29 had subclinical ECG abnormalities. Parasitological tests performed in 70 erythrocyte and platelet fractions from seropositive units (70/161 showed negative results. Our findings strongly support T. cruzi screening in the transfusion medicine practice and identify subclinical heart disease among seropositive blood donors.

  4. Concentration risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Concentration risk has been gaining a special dimension in the contemporary financial and economic environment. Financial institutions are exposed to this risk mainly in the field of lending, mostly through their credit activities and concentration of credit portfolios. This refers to the concentration of different exposures within a single risk category (credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk.

  5. Risk for Travelers

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... publish guidance in 1999 and 2002 outlining a geography-based donor deferral policy to reduce the risk ... supplies [the Over Thirty Month (OTM) rule], was applied in the UK and appeared to be highly ...

  6. The Risk of Transplant Failure With HLA Mismatch in First Adult Kidney Allografts 2: Living Donors, Summary, Guide

    OpenAIRE

    Williams, Robert C.; Opelz, Gerhard; Weil, E. Jennifer; McGarvey, Chelsea J.; Chakkera, Harini A.

    2017-01-01

    Background Allografts from living donors survive longer than those from deceased donors but the role of HLA mismatching in living kidney donation is still in question. We examined the effect of HLA compatibility on kidney allograft survival from living donors by studying all first adult kidney transplants performed in the United States over 25 years. Methods Using the United Network for Organ Sharing data, we identified first kidney transplants between October 1, 1987, and December 31, 2013. ...

  7. Equity and adequacy of international donor assistance for global malaria control: an analysis of populations at risk and external funding commitments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Robert W; Okiro, Emelda A; Gething, Peter W; Atun, Rifat; Hay, Simon I

    2010-10-23

    Financing for malaria control has increased as part of international commitments to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We aimed to identify the unmet financial needs that would be biologically and economically equitable and would increase the chances of reaching worldwide malaria-control ambitions. Populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax transmission were calculated for 2007 and 2009 for 93 malaria-endemic countries to measure biological need. National per-person gross domestic product (GDP) was used to define economic need. An analysis of external donor assistance for malaria control was done for the period 2002-09 to compute overall and annualised per-person at-risk-funding commitments. Annualised malaria donor assistance was compared with independent predictions of funding needed to reach international targets of 80% coverage of best practices in case-management and effective disease prevention. Countries were ranked in relation to biological, economic, and unmet needs to examine equity and adequacy of support by 2010. International financing for malaria control has increased by 166% (from $0·73 billion to $1·94 billion) since 2007 and is broadly consistent with biological needs. African countries have become major recipients of external assistance; however, countries where P vivax continues to pose threats to control ambitions are not as well funded. 21 countries have reached adequate assistance to provide a comprehensive suite of interventions by 2009, including 12 countries in Africa. However, this assistance was inadequate for 50 countries representing 61% of the worldwide population at risk of malaria-including ten countries in Africa and five in Asia that coincidentally are some of the poorest countries. Approval of donor funding for malaria control does not correlate with GDP. Funding for malaria control worldwide is 60% lower than the US$4·9 billion needed for comprehensive control in 2010; this includes

  8. CMV Serostatus of Donor-Recipient Pairs Influences the Risk of CMV Infection/Reactivation in HSCT Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia Jaskula

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available CMV donor/recipient serostatus was analyzed in 200 patients allografted in our institution from unrelated (122 patients donors and 78 sibling donors in the years 2002–2011 in relation to posttransplant complications. On a group basis independently of the CMV serostatus of donor-recipient pairs sibling transplantations and those from unrelated donors that matched 10/10 at allele level had a similar rate of CMV reactivation (17/78 versus 19/71, P=ns. The rate of CMV reactivation/infection was higher in patients grafted from donors accepted at the lower level of matching than 10/10 (18/38 versus 36/149, P=0.008. The incidence of aGvHD followed frequencies of CMV reactivation in the tested groups, being 40/156 and 25/44 in patients grafted from sibling or unrelated donors that 10/10 matched and in those grafted from donors taht HLA mismatched, respectively (P=0.001. Regarding the rate of reactivation in both groups seropositive patients receiving a transplant from seronegative donors had more frequently CMV reactivation as compared to those with another donor-recipient matching CMV serostatus constellation (22/43 versus 32/143, P=0<0.001. Multivariate analysis revealed that seropositivity of recipients with concomitant seronegativity of donors plays an independent role in the CMV reactivation/infection (OR=2.669, P=0.037; OR=5.322, P=0.078; OR=23.034, P=0.023 for optimally matched and mismatched patients and the whole group of patients, resp..

  9. Donor genotype in the Interleukin-7 receptor α-chain predicts risk of graft-versus-host disease and cytomegalovirus infection after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kielsen, Katrine; Enevold, Christian; Heilmann, Carsten

    2018-01-01

    The efficacy of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is challenged by acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD and cGVHD) and viral infections due to long-lasting immunodeficiency. Interleukin-7 (IL-7) is a cytokine essential for de novo T cell generation in thymus.......1-3.8, P = 0.034) and with significantly increased risk of extensive cGVHD (HR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.1-3.6, P = 0.025) after adjustment for potential risk factors. In addition, the TT genotype was associated with a higher risk of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection post-transplant (HR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.2-4.3, P.......7, 95% CI = 1.2-2.3, P = 0.0027) and increased treatment-related mortality (HR = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.3-4.0, P = 0.0047), but was not associated with the risk of relapse (P = 0.35). In conclusion, the IL-7Rα rs6897932 genotype of the donor is predictive of aGVHD and cGVHD, CMV infection, and mortality...

  10. Is basiliximab induction, a novel risk factor for new onset diabetes after transplantation for living donor renal allograft recipients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Narayan; Gurjer, Desraj; Bhadauria, Dharmender; Gupta, Amit; Srivastava, Aneesh; Kaul, Anupama; Jaiswal, Akhilesh; Yadav, Brijesh; Yadav, Subhash; Sharma, Raj K

    2014-04-01

    It was found that, by affecting populations of T lymphocytes and regulatory T cells, basiliximab also indirectly affects pancreatic β-cell function and glucose homeostasis. In this prospective observational study, we included all renal transplant recipients from 1 July 2007 to 31 July 2011. The overall incidence of hyperglycaemia (transient hyperglycaemia, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and new onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT)) was compared between patients with and without basiliximab induction. Of the 439 eligible study patients, 105 patients received basiliximab induction and 334 patients did not. Overall hyperglycaemia (transient hyperglycaemia, IFG, IGT and NODAT) was detected in 102/334 (30.5%) patients without induction and 44/105 (41.9%) patients with induction (P = 0.03). Of the 102 patients with hyperglycaemia in patients without basiliximab, 46 (45.1%) patients improved, while only 10 (22.7%) of the 44 patients with basiliximab improved (P = 0.016) at the end of 3 months. Finally, NODAT was observed in 56/334 (16.7%) patients without induction and 102/334 (30.5%) patients with induction. Relative risk of NODAT with basiliximab was 2.3 (95% CI 1.4-3.9) compared to that of patients without induction. Basiliximab and hepatitis C virus infection were independent risk factors for NODAT. Risk of NODAT remained high with basiliximab despite adjusting the acute rejections episodes. Basiliximab induction prevents acute rejection; however, it is associated with increased risk of NODAT. © 2014 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

  11. Risk and prevention of graft failure in patients with preexisting donor-specific HLA antibodies undergoing unmanipulated haploidentical SCT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshihara, S; Maruya, E; Taniguchi, K; Kaida, K; Kato, R; Inoue, T; Fujioka, T; Tamaki, H; Ikegame, K; Okada, M; Soma, T; Hayashi, K; Fujii, N; Onuma, T; Kusunoki, Y; Saji, H; Ogawa, H

    2012-04-01

    A role of donor-specific HLA antibodies (DSA) in graft failure after SCT has been suggested, but the relevance of DSA in unmanipulated haploidentical SCT (haplo-SCT) remains unknown. We prospectively examined HLA antibodies using the Luminex-based single Ag assay for 79 adult patients undergoing unmanipulated haplo-SCT. Among them, 16 (20.2%) were HLA Ab-positive, including five patients with antibodies not corresponding to donor HLA Ags and 11 DSA-positive patients. Of the 11 DSA-positive patients, five received treatments to decrease DSA levels, including two, who received plasma exchange and rituximab, two who received platelet transfusions from healthy-related donors having DSA-corresponding HLA Ags and one who received bortezomib. Platelet transfusion was the most simple and effective treatment option for class I DSA. The cumulative incidence of neutrophil recovery was significantly lower in pretransplant (post-treatment) DSA-positive patients than in DSA-negative patients (61.9 vs 94.4%, P=0.026). Notably, three of five patients with high levels of DSA had graft failure. Donors should be selected on the basis of an evaluation of HLA antibodies. If haplo-SCT from donors with HLA Ags that correspond to high levels of DSA must be performed, then recipients should be treated for DSA to improve the chances of successful donor engraftment.

  12. Evolution of human cytomegalovirus-seronegative donor/-seropositive recipient high-risk combination frequency in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantations at Institute of Hematology and Blood Transfusion during 1995-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeckova, S; Sroller, V; Stastna-Markova, M

    2016-04-01

    Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) establishes lifelong latent infection that can result in severe life-threatening disease in immunosuppressed patients after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). An HCMV-seropositive transplant recipient who receives a graft from a seronegative donor (R+/D-) is at high risk of recurrent HCMV reactivation. To assess the incidence of R+/D- combination, we retrospectively evaluated HCMV-seronegative donors for 746 allogeneic HSCT treatments carried out at our center during 1995-2014. In our cohort, 20% HCMV-seronegative HSCT recipients, 21% HCMV-seronegative related graft donors, and 52% HCMV-seronegative unrelated graft donors were included. Analyses of the HCMV serostatus of hematopoietic stem cell donors during 2 consecutive calendar periods (1995-2005 and 2006-2014) showed a significant increase in the proportion of seronegative donors (odds ratio [OR] = 1.947). In addition, the number of HSCT treatments using an unrelated donor increased (OR = 2.376). Finally, the use of grafts from countries with a very low HCMV prevalence increased. This increase in HCMV seronegativity in unrelated donors and the increased proportion of unrelated donors were responsible for the increased occurrence of the high-risk combination R+/D- (OR = 1.680). If the reduction in the rate of HCMV-seropositive graft donors continues, an increased frequency of HCMV reactivation events in our transplant recipients can be expected, because of the increasing occurrence of the high-risk R+/D- combination. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Zero risk tolerance costs lives: loss of transplantable organs due to human immunodeficiency virus nucleic acid testing of potential donors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, Teresa J; Schkade, David; Schkade, Lawrence; Geier, Steven S; Orlowski, Jeffrey P; Klintmalm, Goran

    2011-09-01

    Patients' deaths due to the organ donor shortage make it imperative that every suitable organ be transplanted. False-positive results of tests for infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) result in lost organs. A survey of US organ procurement organizations collected the numbers of donors and ruled-out potential donors who had a positive result on an HIV test from January 1,2006, to October 31, 2008. Sixty-two percent of US organ procurement organizations participated. Of the 12397 donor/nondonor cases, 56 (0.45%) had an initial positive result on an HIV antibody or HIV nucleic acid test, and only 8 (14.3%) of those were confirmed positive. Of the false-positive results, 50% were from HIV antibody tests and 50% were from HIV nucleic acid tests. Organs are a scarce, finite, and perishable resource. Use of HIV antibody testing has produced a remarkably safe track record of avoiding HIV transmission, with 22 years of nonoccurrence between transmissions. Because false positives occur with any test, including the HIV Ab test, adding nucleic acid testing to the standard donor testing panel doubles the number of false-positive HIV test results and thus the number of medically suitable donors lost. The required HIV antibody test is 99.99% effective in preventing transmission of the HIV virus. Adding the HIV nucleic acid test to routine organ donor screening could result in as many as 761 to 1551 unnecessary deaths of patients between HIV transmission events because medically suitable organs are wasted.

  14. Donor Diabetes and Prolonged Cold Ischemia Time Synergistically Increase the Risk of Graft Failure After Liver Transplantation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brüggenwirth, Isabel M A; Dolgin, Natasha H; Porte, Robert J; Bozorgzadeh, Adel; Martins, Paulo N A

    BACKGROUND: Both prolonged cold ischemia time (CIT) and donor history of diabetes mellitus (DM) are associated with reduced graft survival after liver transplantation. However, it is unknown whether the adverse effect of prolonged CIT on posttransplant graft survival is more pronounced after

  15. Recipient and donor thrombophilia and the risk of portal venous thrombosis and hepatic artery thrombosis in liver recipients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayala Rosa

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Vascular complications, such as HAT, are an important cause of graft loss and recipient mortality. We aimed to characterize post-transplant thrombotic events in a cohort of liver transplant recipients, and identify independent risk factors for these complications. Methods We conducted a thrombophilic study of 293 orthotopic liver transplants performed in the Digestive Surgery Department of the 12 de Octubre Hospital (Madrid, Spain between January 2001 and December 2006. Results The most frequent post-transplant thrombotic events were HAT (9% and PVT (1.7%. The one variable associated with post-transplant thrombotic event was a high fibrinogen level in the global cohort of liver transplantation. But toxicity as event post-OLT has been associated with post-transplant thrombotic event in the retrospective group and high fibrinogen level and low protein C levels were associated post-transplant thrombotic event in the prospective group. Liver disease relapse (HR 6.609, p In conclusion, high fibrinogen and decreased protein C levels were associated with allograft thrombosis. Further studies are required in order to assess the clinical relevance of these parameters in prospective studies and to study the effect of anticoagulation prophylaxis in this group of risk.

  16. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  17. Donor-Cell Origin High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome Synchronous with an Intracranial Meningioma-Like Tumor, 8 Years after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Brás

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Secondary neoplasias are well known consequences of radiotherapy or chemotherapy for a primary cancer. In this report, we describe two rare secondary neoplasias occurring in the same patient: a meningioma-like intracranial tumor and high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS of donor-cells origin, both diagnosed simultaneously, 8 years after an allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL. Due to an engraftment failure during the first allo-HSCT of a matched related donor for CLL treatment, the salvage treatment was a second allo-HSCT. At the moment of meningioma-like tumor diagnosis, the patient was pancytopenic due to high-risk MDS, so it was decided to postpone a surgical intervention until hematological improvement. For the high-risk MDS of donor-cells origin the chosen treatment was induction with intensive chemotherapy. Due to refractory disease, the patient was treated with 5-azacitidine and donor-lymphocytes infusion with no response and, finally, a third allo-HSCT of a matched unrelated donor was performed. The patient died 6 months after the third allo-HSCT, in cytogenetic remission but without hematological recovery, due to an intracranial hemorrhage with origin in the meningioma-like tumor.

  18. Surrounding Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Research in insurance and finance was always intersecting although they were originally and generally viewed as separate disciplines. Insurance is about transferring risks between parties such that the burdens of risks are borne by those who can. This makes insurance transactions a beneficial activity for the society. It calls on detection, modelling, valuation, and controlling of risks. One of the main sources of control is diversification of risks and in that respect it becomes an issue in itself to clarify diversifiability of risks. However, many diversifiable risks are not, by nature or by contract design, separable from non-diversifiable risks that are, on the other hand, sometimes traded in financial markets and sometimes not. A key observation is that the economic risk came before the insurance contract: Mother earth destroys and kills incidentally and mercilessly, but the uncertainty of economic consequences can be more or less cleverly distributed by the introduction of an insurance market.

  19. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  20. Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... cells do not invade nearby tissues or spread. Risk Factors Key Points Factors That are Known to ... chemicals . Factors That are Known to Increase the Risk of Cancer Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Tobacco ...

  1. Technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1998-01-01

    The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

  2. Technological risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O. [Center of Technology Assessment in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Stuttgart (Germany)

    1998-07-01

    The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

  3. Climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarre, D.; Favier, R.; Bourg, D.; Marchand, J.P.

    2005-04-01

    The climatic risks are analyzed in this book under the cross-vision of specialists of different domains: philosophy, sociology, economic history, law, geography, climatology and hydrology. The prevention of risks and the precautionary principle are presented first. Then, the relations between climatic risk and geography are analyzed using the notion of territoriality. The territory aspect is in the core of the present day debates about the geography of risks, in particular when the links between climate change and public health are considered. Then the main climatic risks are presented. Droughts and floods are the most damaging ones and the difficulties of prevention-indemnification coupling remain important. (J.S.)

  4. Risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

  5. Risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

  6. Industrial risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1981-01-01

    A brief look is taken at the status of progress, or the lack of it, towards a quantitative approach to the estimation and assessment of risk for several technologies in the United States. The increase of interest in the consideration of comparative risks in decision-making is also discussed. Finally, a recently proposed trial approach to quantitative safety goals for light-water nuclear power reactors is summarized. The approach is divided into two major tasks: the predominantly social and political task of setting safety criteria, and the technical task of estimating the risks and deciding whether the safety criteria have been met. The safety criteria include the following: limits on hazard states within the reactor; limits on risk to the individual; limits on societal risk; a cost-effectiveness criterion as low as reasonably achievable; a small element of risk aversion. (author)

  7. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  8. The risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olin, N.; Delmestre, A.; Baumont, G.; El Jammal, M.H.; Brucker, G.; Mettendorf, M.; Kervern, G.Y.; Amalberti, R.; Digoin, A.; Lagrange, V.; Duval, D.; Setbon, M.; Godard, O.; Lagadec, P.; Heriard Dubreuil, G.; Miserey, Y.; Delalonde, J.C.; Solomarska, E.

    2006-01-01

    In this issue is studied the risk analysis in nuclear industry. The different chapters are the risk, its perception and its control; the measure of the perception of risks; misunderstanding, a limit for transparency policy. About the running systems on risk, the practical applications of research on the science of danger are detailed; human factors approaches, errors and risk is tackled and also human factors at the centre of safety progress by taking expert methods and transforming them into practical tools for managers; an example is given through the technological risks analysis rule in Total industrial group, or how harmonizing the methods to increase the performance; Some thoughts about the risks and its perception, the principle of precaution, the emergencies and breaking situations on the borderline of chaos; the civil society at the heart of the governance of activities generating risks; two stories, one is about the difficulties to get information, including about the passage of the cloud from Chernobyl, the second one is the account of an inhabitant of Chernobyl. (N.C.)

  9. Risk determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The issue gives a survey of the legal, theological, statistical and health aspects of risk determination. It includes the opinions of physicians, epidemiologists, mathematicians, toxicologists, biologists, theologists and physicists who explain and illustrate the term of risk from their perspective. (orig./DG) [de

  10. Risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magne, L.

    1999-01-01

    There is always a risk of an accident occurring at a nuclear power plant, however small. The problem lies in estimating the probability of it occurring. The method of probabilistic safety assessment provides this estimate, and by identifying the sources of potential risk, makes it possible to prevent them from occurring. It is not, however, a substitute for other decision-making processes. (author)

  11. Exposure and risk factors to coxiella burnetii, spotted fever group and typhus group Rickettsiae, and Bartonella henselae among volunteer blood donors in Namibia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce H Noden

    Full Text Available The role of pathogen-mediated febrile illness in sub-Saharan Africa is receiving more attention, especially in Southern Africa where four countries (including Namibia are actively working to eliminate malaria. With a high concentration of livestock and high rates of companion animal ownership, the influence of zoonotic bacterial diseases as causes of febrile illness in Namibia remains unknown.The aim of the study was to evaluate exposure to Coxiella burnetii, spotted fever and typhus group rickettsiae, and Bartonella henselae using IFA and ELISA (IgG in serum collected from 319 volunteer blood donors identified by the Blood Transfusion Service of Namibia (NAMBTS. Serum samples were linked to a basic questionnaire to identify possible risk factors. The majority of the participants (64.8% had extensive exposure to rural areas or farms. Results indicated a C. burnetii prevalence of 26.1% (screening titre 1∶16, and prevalence rates of 11.9% and 14.9% (screening titre 1∶100 for spotted fever group and typhus group rickettsiae, respectively. There was a significant spatial association between C. burnetii exposure and place of residence in southern Namibia (P0.012, especially cattle (P>0.006, were also significantly associated with C. burnetii exposure. Males were significantly more likely than females to have been exposed to spotted fever (P<0.013 and typhus (P<0.011 group rickettsiae. Three (2.9% samples were positive for B. henselae possibly indicating low levels of exposure to a pathogen never reported in Namibia.These results indicate that Namibians are exposed to pathogenic fever-causing bacteria, most of which have flea or tick vectors/reservoirs. The epidemiology of febrile illnesses in Namibia needs further evaluation in order to develop comprehensive local diagnostic and treatment algorithms.

  12. Embracing risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross Cagan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available I entered the science field because I imagined that scientists were society's “professional risk takers”, that they like surfing out on the edge. I understood that a lot of science – perhaps even most science – has to be a solid exploration of partly understood phenomena. But any science that confronts a difficult problem has to start with risk. Most people are at least a bit suspicious of risk, and scientists such as myself are no exception. Recently, risk-taking has been under attack financially, but this Editorial is not about that. I am writing about the long view and the messages we send to our trainees. I am Senior Associate Dean of the graduate school at Mount Sinai and have had the privilege to discuss these issues with the next generation of scientists, for whom I care very deeply. Are we preparing you to embrace risk?

  13. Nuclear risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levenson, M.

    1989-01-01

    The title of our session, Nuclear Risk Versus Other Power Options, is provocative. It is also a title with different meanings to different people. To the utility chief executive officer, nuclear power is a high-risk financial undertaking because of political and economic barriers to cost recovery. To the utility dispatcher, it is a high-risk future power source since plant completion and start-up dates can be delayed for very long times due to uncertain legal and political issues. To the environmentalist, concerned about global effects such as greenhouse and acid rain, nuclear power is a relatively low risk energy source. To the financial people, nuclear power is a cash cow turned sour because of uncertainties as to what new plants will cost and whether they will even be allowed to operate. The statistics on risk are known and the results of probability risk assessment calculations of risks are known. The challenge is not to make nuclear power safer, it is already one of the safest, if not the safest, source of power currently available. The challenge is to find a way to communicate this to the public

  14. Risk theory

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidli, Hanspeter

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.

  15. Risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Catherine J; Connors, K C; Sheehan, Timothy J; Vaughan, James S

    2005-06-01

    Minimize surprises on your financial statement by adopting a model for integrated risk management that: Examines interrelationships among operations, investments, and financing. Incorporates concepts of the capital asset pricing model to manage unexpected volatility

  16. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  17. Technological risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dierkes, M; Coppock, R; Edwards, S

    1980-01-01

    The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized.

  18. Risk Appetite

    OpenAIRE

    Berlinger, Edina; Váradi, Kata

    2015-01-01

    Our article firstly examines to what extent empirical research confirms the model of decision making based on a stable utility function. To this end, we have summarised the fundamental theoretical correlations relating to risk appetite, then went on to present the main results of behavioural research, with special focus on prospect theory, the correlations between socio-demographic and cognitive characteristics and risk propensity, as well as other influencing physical, mental and psychologic...

  19. Technological risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dierkes, M.; Coppock, R.; Edwards, S.

    1980-01-01

    The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized. (DG)

  20. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  1. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  2. Engineering risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.; Werner, W.

    1991-01-01

    The book describes the methods of risk analysis and explains the procedures and results of a number of studies including the German Risk Study, Phase B and NUREG-1150. After defining basic concepts the methods of risk analysis are treated. In the field of nuclear energy studies for light water, fast breeder and high temperature reactors and for the nuclear fuel cycle are discussed; their relevant results are presented. Additionally, precursors to severe accidents are dealt with. Risk studies for process plants are described; their objectives and methods of analysis are examined. Furthermore, their approaches are compared with that of the German Risk Study, Phase A. Risk comparisons for nuclear, conventional and renewable energy sources are critically examined. Technical and legal aspects of the safety evaluation for nuclear power plants in the FRG and the potential of the combined use of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are discussed. The book concludes with an overview of probabilistic safety goals in different countries. (orig.) With 52 figs

  3. The risks of measuring risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, G.G.

    1982-01-01

    The author gives an overview of the Thirteenth Rochester International Conference on Environmental Toxicity, which examined both the logical soundness of the inference of risk and the validity of the environmental evidence of damage. Examples are itemized, concise introductions are given for each published paper in the proceedings, and an appropriate keynote is given by way of stating the established and alternate approach to risk measurement. The volume is described as ''more than a review of advance in measurement of risks to health . . . (but also) a landmark of a change in scientific opinion.''

  4. Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Multiple Myeloma: Focus on Longitudinal Assessment of Donor Chimerism, Extramedullary Disease, and High-Risk Cytogenetic Features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasche, Leo; Röllig, Christoph; Stuhler, Gernot; Danhof, Sophia; Mielke, Stephan; Grigoleit, Goetz Ulrich; Dissen, Lea; Schemmel, Lea; Middeke, Jan Moritz; Rücker, Viktoria; Schreder, Martin; Schetelig, Johannes; Bornhäuser, Martin; Einsele, Hermann; Thiede, Christian; Knop, Stefan

    2016-11-01

    Although generally not applied as first-line treatment of multiple myeloma, allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-SCT) can still be chosen as ultimate escalation approach in high-risk patients, preferentially within the framework of clinical trials. In this study, we investigated whether decreasing donor chimerism (DC) is predictive for relapse. In addition, we comprehensively determined the impact of several other disease- and treatment-related factors on outcome. One hundred fifty-five multiple myeloma patients whose DC status was followed serially by the short tandem repeat-based techniques at a single lab were included in this retrospective study. Outcome variables were studied in univariate and multivariable analyses. Available were 2.324 DC samples (median, 12 per patient). Loss of full DC was associated with shorter progression-free survival (PFS) (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.6) but did not impact overall survival. Two-thirds of patients with International Myeloma Working Group-defined relapses still displayed a full DC in peripheral blood or bone marrow. Extramedullary manifestations were observed in 33% of patients, accounting for the discrepancy between DC analysis and the actual disease status. In multivariable analysis, the 2 most relevant variables for an unfavorable PFS were progressive disease before allo-SCT (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.5 to 5.9) and allo-SCT at least the second relapse (HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.5 to 4.9), whereas for overall survival progressive disease or partial response before allo-SCT had the strongest negative effects (HR, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.9 to 9, and HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0 to 3.8, respectively). Adverse cytogenetics such as del17p, t(4,14) or amp(1q21) were not associated with shorter survival after allo-SCT. Extensive DC sampling beyond robust engraftment does not appear to provide additional information helpful for disease management in most patients and is challenged by a significant incidence of extramedullary disease. In our

  5. Risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dombrowsky, Wolf R.; Kiel Univ.

    2009-01-01

    The study on risk communication identifies the deficiencies concerning empirical and theoretical knowledge on objective radiation hazards of the acting personnel (managers, politicians, jurists, etc.) in administrations, governmental agencies, and business management. This is especially problematic with respect to emergency planning and estimations concerning the public behavior. The incident/accident information in Germany is discussed based on the legislative regulations revealing the controversial perception between industry, legislative and public interest. Further topics include the meandering of the modern safety semantics and the public opinion concerning catastrophic risk.

  6. Minimizing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.

    1991-01-01

    This article discusses ways to reduce the economic risk of independent energy projects. The topics of the article include risk categorization into areas of property, boiler and machinery, business income, and general liability, choosing a broker, choosing an insurer, and helping an insurer develop the best portfolio for the project. The author feels that attention to the guidelines for the right insurance coverage is as vital to a plant's economic stability as attention to the details of the blueprints is to its physical stability

  7. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  8. Perceived Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ost, David H.

    1995-01-01

    Perceived risk is a function of information, knowledge, values, and perception. This exercise is designed to illustrate that in many situations there is no correct answer, only best-alternative choices. The exercise has five parts in which students work in groups of five. (LZ)

  9. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  10. Residual risk

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    transfusion. Strategies which could be considered include: (z) an intensive campaign of education among potential blood donors as to ... Doyle PR. The Impact ofAIDS on the South African Population. (paper No. 23). Johannesburg: Centre for ...

  11. Risk Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Boutang , Jérôme; De Lara , Michel

    2016-01-01

    In a modern world increasingly perceived as uncertain, the mere purchase of a household cleaning product, or a seemingly harmless bottle of milk, conveys interrogations about potential hazards, from environmental to health impacts. The main purpose of this article is to suggest that risk could be considered as one of the major dimensions of choice for a wide range of concerns and markets, alongside aspiration/satisfaction, and tackled efficiently by mobilizing the recent findings of cognitive...

  12. Nuclear risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulkers, G.

    1988-01-01

    This file includes data on risks insured by the nuclear insurance pool in Belgium and on the Chernobyl accident covering injury, economic damage and compensation for the latter. Also included are the texts of the IAEA Conventions on Early Notification and on Assistance in Case of a Nuclear Accident as well as that of a Convention on long-distance transfrontier atmospheric pollution signed in Geneva [fr

  13. Risks of tobacco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Secondhand smoke - risks; Cigarette smoking - risks; Smoking and smokeless tobacco - risks; Nicotine - risks ... tobacco that are known to cause cancer. HEALTH RISKS OF SMOKING OR USING SMOKELESS TOBACCO Knowing the ...

  14. Heart disease - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

  15. Verbal risk in communicating risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.C. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). School of Communication; Reno, H.W. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Idaho National Engineering Lab.

    1993-03-01

    When persons in the waste management industry have a conversation concerning matters of the industry, thoughts being communicated are understood among those in the industry. However, when persons in waste management communicate with those outside the industry, communication may suffer simply because of poor practices such as the use of jargon, euphemisms, acronyms, abbreviations, language usage, not knowing audience, and public perception. This paper deals with ways the waste management industry can communicate risk to the public without obfuscating issues. The waste management industry should feel obligated to communicate certain meanings within specific contexts and, then, if the context changes, should not put forth a new, more appropriate meaning to the language already used. Communication of the waste management industry does not have to be provisional. The authors suggest verbal risks in communicating risk can be reduced significantly or eliminated by following a few basic communication principles. The authors make suggestions and give examples of ways to improve communication with the general public by avoiding or reducing jargon, euphemisms, and acronyms; knowing the audience; avoiding presumptive knowledge held by the audience; and understanding public perception of waste management issues.

  16. Risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahearne, J.F.

    1989-01-01

    Conflicts on technical issues frequently involve disagreements between the public and the technologists. This paper summarizes the major characteristics of three groups of technologists and four groups of the public which lead to many of the disagreements. To advance the mores of making decisions involving complex science or technology, technologists should develop an understanding of what information is needed for decisions, of the need for two-way communication with the public, and to become responsible for the accuracy and honesty of risk communication messages

  17. Publishing Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available “What is complicated is not necessarily insightful and what is insightful is not necessarily complicated: Risks welcomes simple manuscripts that contribute with insight, outlook, understanding and overview”—a quote from the first editorial of this journal [1]. Good articles are not characterized by their level of complication but by their level of imagination, innovation, and power of penetration. Creativity sessions and innovative tasks are most elegant and powerful when they are delicately simple. This is why the articles you most remember are not the complicated ones that you struggled to digest, but the simpler ones you enjoyed swallowing.

  18. Balancing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nygaard, Lene; Rossen, Camilla Blach; Buus, Niels

    2015-01-01

    This study explored how eight pregnant women diagnosed with depression managed the decision whether or not to take antidepressants during pregnancy. In total, 11 interviews were conducted and analysed by means of constructivist grounded theory. The major category constructed was Balancing risk......, with two minor categories: Assessing depression and antidepressants and Evaluating the impact of significant others. The participants tried to make the safest decision, taking all aspects of their life into consideration. They described successful decision-making in the context of managing social norms...

  19. Proliferation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carchon, R.

    1998-09-01

    The report gives an overview of different aspects related to safeguards of fissile materials. Existing treaties including the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the Tlatelolco and the Rarotonga Treaties are discussed. An overview of safeguards systems for the control of fissile materials as well as the role of various authorities is given. An overall overview of proliferation risks, the physical protection of fissile materials and the trade in fissile materials is given. Finally, the status in problem countries and de facto nuclear weapon states is discussed

  20. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

  1. Calculated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodricks, J.V.

    1992-01-01

    This book is a clear, practical, and balanced view of toxicology and risk management. The introduction argues the case for risks assessment and outlines the benefits and problems associated with chemical exposure. The first part of the book covers the basic science and the sources of human exposure to chemicals. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion are covered in some detail. The subsequent chapter gives a lively discussion of toxicity studies and then describes slow and fast poisons. The author gives the arguments for as well as against animal testing. There is much public bewilderment caused by reports of cancer-causing pesticides in apple juice and poisons emanating from nearby hazardous waste sites. The author believes that too much has been written in an attempt to expose governmental and corporate ignorance, negligence, and corruption. This book is less of a polemic, and more of a clear, unbiased clarification of the scientific basis for our concerns and uncertainties. It should serve to refocus the debate

  2. Volcanic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rancon, J.P.; Baubron, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    This project follows the previous multi-disciplinary studies carried out by the French Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM) on the two active volcanoes of the French lesser Antilles: Mt Pelee (Martinique) and Soufriere (Guadeloupe) for which geological maps and volcanic risk studies have been achieved. The research program comprises 5 parts: the study of pyroclastic deposits from recent eruptions of the two volcanoes for a better characterization of their eruptive phenomenology and a better definition of crisis scenarios; the study of deposits and structures of active volcanoes from Central America and the study of eruptive dynamics of andesite volcanoes for a transposition to Antilles' volcanoes; the starting of a methodological multi-disciplinary research (volcanology, geography, sociology...) on the volcanic risk analysis and on the management of a future crisis; and finally, the development of geochemical survey techniques (radon, CO 2 , H 2 O) on active volcanoes of Costa-Rica and Europe (Fournaise, Furnas, Etna) and their application to the Soufriere. (J.S.). 9 refs., 3 figs

  3. Seroprevalence and Associated Risk Factors for Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Healthy Blood Donors: A Cross-Sectional Study in Sonora, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado-Esquivel, Cosme; Rascón-Careaga, Antonio; Hernández-Tinoco, Jesús; Corella-Madueño, María Alba Guadalupe; Sánchez-Anguiano, Luis Francisco; Aldana-Madrid, María Lourdes; Velasquez-Vega, Edgar; Quizán-Plata, Trinidad; Navarro-Henze, José Luis; Badell-Luzardo, Joel Alberto; Gastélum-Cano, José María; Liesenfeld, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) can be transmitted by blood transfusion. We determined the prevalence of T. gondii infection in healthy blood donors in Hermosillo city, Mexico, and the association of infection with T. gondii with the sociodemographic, clinical, and behavioral characteristics of blood donors. Four hundred and eight blood donors who attended two public blood banks in Hermosillo city were examined for anti-T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies by using enzyme-linked immunoassays. Of the 408 blood donors (mean age 31.77 ± 9.52; range 18-60 years old) studied, 55 (13.5%) were positive for anti-T. gondii IgG antibodies, and 12 (21.8%) of them were also positive for anti-T. gondii IgM antibodies. Multivariate analysis showed that seropositivity to T. gondii was associated with age (OR = 1.74; 95% CI: 1.03-2.94; P = 0.03) and tobacco use (OR = 2.09; 95% CI: 1.02-4.29; P = 0.04). Seropositivity to T. gondii was correlated with the number of pregnancies, deliveries, and cesarean sections. The seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in blood donors in Sonora is the highest reported in blood donors in northern Mexico so far. This is the first report of an association of T. gondii exposure and tobacco use. Further research to confirm this association is needed.

  4. Impact of using different blood donor subpopulations and models on the estimation of transfusion transmission residual risk of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mapako, Tonderai; Janssen, Mart P; Mvere, David A; Emmanuel, Jean C; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Postma, Maarten J; van Hulst, Marinus

    2016-06-01

    Various models for estimating the residual risk (RR) of transmission of infections by blood transfusion have been published mainly based on data from high-income countries. However, to obtain the data required for such an assessment remains challenging for most developing settings. The National Blood Service Zimbabwe (NBSZ) adapted a published incidence-window period (IWP) model, which has less demanding data requirements. In this study we assess the impact of various definitions of blood donor subpopulations and models on RR estimates. We compared the outcomes of two published models and an adapted NBSZ model. The Schreiber IWP model (Model 1), an amended version (Model 2), and an adapted NBSZ model (Model 3) were applied. Variably the three models include prevalence, incidence, preseroconversion intervals, mean lifetime risk, and person-years at risk. Annual mean RR estimates and 95% confidence intervals for each of the three models for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) were determined using NBSZ blood donor data from 2002 through 2011. The annual mean RR estimates for Models 1 through 3 were 1 in 6542, 5805, and 6418, respectively for HIV; 1 in 1978, 2027, and 1628 for HBV; and 1 in 9588, 15,126, and 7750, for HCV. The adapted NBSZ model provided comparable results to the published methods and these highlight the high occurrence of HBV in Zimbabwe. The adapted NBSZ model could be used as an alternative to estimate RRs when in settings where two repeat donations are not available. © 2016 AABB.

  5. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  6. Radiation risks and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansweyer, C.J.M.

    1981-01-01

    The differences in acceptance of risks of different nature (industrial, in the home, on the road, use of drugs, alcohol, tobacco, coffee or other food stuffs) by the public are compared on the basis of life expectancy values of different categories of people. The safety of radiologic work for both personnel and patients is considered in connection with the basic principles underlying the ICRP recommendations. A computation of the effective body dose equivalent for a mean medical X-ray examination and a nuclear in vivo examination is given. (Auth.)

  7. Biofilm Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wirtanen, Gun Linnea; Salo, Satu

    2016-01-01

    This chapter on biofilm risks deals with biofilm formation of pathogenic microbes, sampling and detection methods, biofilm removal, and prevention of biofilm formation. Several common pathogens produce sticky and/or slimy structures in which the cells are embedded, that is, biofilms, on various...... surfaces in food processing. Biofilms of common foodborne pathogens are reviewed. The issue of persistent and nonpersistent microbial contamination in food processing is also discussed. It has been shown that biofilms can be difficult to remove and can thus cause severe disinfection and cleaning problems...... in food factories. In the prevention of biofilm formation microbial control in process lines should both limit the number of microbes on surfaces and reduce microbial activity in the process. Thus the hygienic design of process equipment and process lines is important in improving the process hygiene...

  8. Managing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nathwani, J.S.

    1993-01-01

    The three principles to guide regulating authorities are: Risks shall be managed to maximize the total expected net benefit to society; The safety benefit to be promoted is quality-adjusted life expectancy; Decisions for the public in regard to health and safety must be open and apply across the entire range of hazards to life and health. Based on the principle that excessive spending on health and safety, or lack of necessary development, may cause poverty and thereby actually decrease (adjusted) life expectancy, the author has developed a Life Product Index which gives comparable results to the Human Development Index promoted by the United Nations Development Program. These two social indicators can be used for purposes such as project evaluation, choosing between alternative technologies, or evaluation of health and safety programs

  9. ABO/Rh Blood Groups and Risk of HIV Infection and Hepatitis B Among Blood Donors of Abidjan, Côte D'ivoire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siransy, Liliane Kouabla; Nanga, Zizendorf Yves; Zaba, Flore Sandrine; Tufa, Nyasenu Yawo; Dasse, Sery Romuald

    2015-09-01

    Hepatitis B and HIV infection are two viral infections that represent real global public health problems. In order to improve their management, some hypotheses suggest that genetic predispositions like ABO and Rh blood groups would influence the occurrence of these diseases. The aim of the present study was to examine the association between ABO and Rhesus blood groups and the susceptibility to HIV infection and hepatitis B. We conducted a cross-sectional and analytical study in a population of voluntary blood donors in the Blood Transfusion Center of Abidjan. All blood donors who donated blood between January and June 2014 were tested for HBs antigen and anti-HIV antibodies (ELISA tests) and were ABO typed. The total number of examined blood donors during this period was 45,538, of which 0.32% and 8.07% were respectively infected with HIV and hepatitis B virus. O-group donors were more infected than non-O donors. Our study is an outline concerning the search for a link between ABO and Rh blood groups and hepatitis B and HIV infection. Further studies should be conducted to confirm the interaction between these two infections and contribute to the search for new therapeutic approaches.

  10. Effect of low-dose-rate irradiation on the division potential of cells in vitro. V. Human skin fibroblasts from donors with a high risk of cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diatloff, C.; Macieira-Coelho, A.

    1979-01-01

    Skin fibroblasts from normal donors, donors with ataxia-telanglectasia or Fanconi's anemia, and from 1 cancer patient were treated with repeated γ radiation at about 16 rads per hour. The remaining division potential of all fibroblasts, except for the Fanconi's anemia cells, was reduced to different extents by radiation. The growth potential of Fanconl's anemia cells was increased in all the irradiated cultures. The increase was 54% in the group that survived the longest. These results were identical to those obtained with fibroblasts from certain species that have a high probability of transformation

  11. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  12. Does radiation risk exist?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Passchier, W.

    1996-01-01

    Risk assessment and risk management are parts of a dynamic process with the objective to decide on the tolerability of risk and on measures to keep risk within accepted limits. It enables all relevant parties to express their concerns and preferences regarding the different options for the human action involved and regarding the relative importance of criteria to decide on the tolerability of risk. Risk assessment has three phases; problem definition, risk analysis and risk characterization. Risk analysis is primarily a technical and scientific endeavour. With regard to problem definition and ride characterization consultation between risk assessors and risk managers (and other parties concerned) is a must. (author)

  13. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  14. Risk from environmental chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somers, E [Environmental Health Directorate, Health Protection Branch, Health and Welfare Canada, Ontario

    1982-01-01

    The elements of risk assessment, namely risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and risk management, are described with respect to the control of environmental chemicals. The methodology of risk estimation is outlined and examples given of its application to regulatory decision-making for a number of chemicals in Canada. Finally, the extent and limitations of the process of risk evaluation are considered together with the need to recognize the importance of the public's perception of the level of risk.

  15. Screening mammography. A risk versus risk decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritenour, E.R.; Hendee, W.R.

    1989-01-01

    The potential risk of a radiologic procedure often is compared with the potential benefit of the procedure. While risk vs. benefit analysis has been useful as a step toward increased communication and understanding among radiologists, referring physicians, and the general public, it has the disadvantage that risk and benefit are fundamentally different quantities. Hence, their juxtaposition for purposes of comparison presents contextual difficulties. In this article, the concept is presented of comparing the risk of doing a procedure with the risk of choosing not to do the procedure. An example of risk vs. risk analysis of screening mammography for women over the age of 50 is given, with the conclusion that the risk of having yearly mammograms is less than 1/10 the risk of early death caused by failure to diagnose breast cancer by x-ray mammography. This approach to risk analysis would yield interesting data for examinations that are part of more complicated diagnostic pathways.19 references

  16. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  17. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  18. Enterprise risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eaton, C. [Enbridge, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a relative new, holistic and strategic approach for managing risks in modern organizations. ERM builds on and extends traditional risk management (RM). Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives - positive and/or negative. Risk management is a set of practices used to understand and address risk. ERM is a form of RM that emphasizes risk aggregation and integration. Risk aggregation is combining individual risks into categories ({sup r}olled up{sup )}. risk integration is embedding RM into organizational contexts ({sup b}uilt in{sup )}.

  19. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  20. Risk and risk aversion in our society

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, B L [Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA)

    1985-01-01

    The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks with which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks.

  1. Risk and risk aversion in our society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1985-01-01

    The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks

  2. Downside Variance Risk Premium

    OpenAIRE

    Feunou, Bruno; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad; Okou, Cedric

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new decomposition of the variance risk premium in terms of upside and downside variance risk premia. The difference between upside and downside variance risk premia is a measure of skewness risk premium. We establish that the downside variance risk premium is the main component of the variance risk premium, and that the skewness risk premium is a priced factor with significant prediction power for aggregate excess returns. Our empirical investigation highlights the positive and s...

  3. Risk control and the minimum significant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented

  4. Risk and risk acceptance by society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statt, C.

    1977-01-01

    Various dimensions of risk are identified which relate to the manner in which risk is perceived and evaluated, and several self-consistent risk characteristics are explored. Factors which are thought to influence the perception of risk include the degree of personal control over the risk, the potential of episodic events, and the probable severity of injury if a risk event occurs. Risk-benefit analysis can be applied to three problems: the allocation of resources for safety expenditures, the setting of standards, and societal risk taking decisions. Calculations of benefit are needed for the third area of application, methods for the other two frequently do not require such a measure. (orig./RW) [de

  5. Recruitment of feces donors among blood donors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl Jørgensen, Simon Mark; Erikstrup, Christian; Dinh, Khoa Manh

    2018-01-01

    As the use of fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) has gained momentum, an increasing need for continuous access to healthy feces donors has developed. Blood donors constitute a healthy subset of the general population and may serve as an appropriate group for recruitment. In this study, we...... investigated the suitability of blood donors as feces donors. In a prospective cohort study, we recruited blood donors onsite at a public Danish blood bank. Following their consent, the blood donors underwent a stepwise screening process: First, blood donors completed an electronic pre-screening questionnaire...... to rule out predisposing risk factors. Second, eligible blood donors had blood and fecal samples examined. Of 155 blood donors asked to participate, 137 (88%) completed the electronic pre-screening questionnaire, 16 declined, and 2 were excluded. Of the 137 donors who completed the questionnaire, 79 (58...

  6. Risk and reliability allocation to risk control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vojnovic, D.; Kozuh, M.

    1992-01-01

    The risk allocation procedure is used as an analytical model to support the optimal decision making for reliability/availability improvement planning. Both levels of decision criteria, the plant risk measures and plant performance indices, are used in risk allocation procedure. Decision support system uses the multi objective decision making concept. (author) [sl

  7. Lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van den Brand, Jan A J G; Pippias, Maria; Stel, Vianda S

    2017-01-01

    Background: Upcoming KDIGO guidelines for the evaluation of living kidney donors are expected to move towards a personal risk-based evaluation of potential donors. We present the age and sex-specific lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease in 10 European...

  8. Risk Factors for Scleroderma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... You are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is ... what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does not tend to run in families ...

  9. Risk Factors and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Back to Patient Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Even people who look healthy and ... Blood Pressure , high cholesterol, diabetes, and thyroid disease. Risk Factors For Arrhythmias and Heart Disease The following ...

  10. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  11. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  12. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  13. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  14. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  15. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  16. On portfolio risk diversification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, Hellinton H.; Stern, Julio M.

    2017-06-01

    The first portfolio risk diversification strategy was put into practice by the All Weather fund in 1996. The idea of risk diversification is related to the risk contribution of each available asset class or investment factor to the total portfolio risk. The maximum diversification or the risk parity allocation is achieved when the set of risk contributions is given by a uniform distribution. Meucci (2009) introduced the maximization of the Rényi entropy as part of a leverage constrained optimization problem to achieve such diversified risk contributions when dealing with uncorrelated investment factors. A generalization of the risk parity is the risk budgeting when there is a prior for the distribution of the risk contributions. Our contribution is the generalization of the existent optimization frameworks to be able to solve the risk budgeting problem. In addition, our framework does not possess any leverage constraint.

  17. VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

  18. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  19. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  20. Identifying and Managing Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Janice M.

    1999-01-01

    The role of the college or university chief financial officer in institutional risk management is (1) to identify risk (physical, casualty, fiscal, business, reputational, workplace safety, legal liability, employment practices, general liability), (2) to develop a campus plan to reduce and control risk, (3) to transfer risk, and (4) to track and…

  1. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  2. Risk management and safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.; Novegno, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk assessment, including probabilistic analyses, has made great progress over the past decade. In spite of the inherent uncertainties it has now become possible to utilize methods and results for decision making at various levels. This paper will, therefore, review risk management in industrial installations, risk management for energy safety policy and prospects of risk management in highly industrialized areas. (orig.) [de

  3. Man, technology and risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-06-01

    Using the instruments of empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severeness of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks. (Translated from German, original report Juel-Spez--67).

  4. Catalog of risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, B L; Lee, I S [Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA). Dept. of Physics

    1979-06-01

    Information on risks is collected from various sources and converted into loss of life expectancy throughout life and in various age ranges. Risks included are radiation, accidents of various types, various diseases, overweight, tobacco use, alcohol and drugs, coffee, saccharin, and The Pill, occupational risks, socioeconomic factors, marital status, geography, serving in U.S. armed forces in Vietnam, catastrophic events, energy production, and technology in general. Information is also included on methods for reducing risks, risks in individual actions, very-hazardous activities, and priorities and perspective. Risks of natural and occupational radiation and exposure to radioactivity from the nuclear industry are compared with risks of similar or competing activities.

  5. A catalog of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.; Lee, I.S.

    1979-01-01

    Information on risks is collected from various sources and converted into loss of life expectancy throughout life and in various age ranges. Risks included are radiation, accidents of various types, various diseases, overweight, tobacco use, alcohol and drugs, coffee, saccharin, and The Pill, occupational risks, socioeconomic factors, marital status, geography, serving in U.S. armed forces in Vietnam, catastrophic events, energy production, and technology in general. Information is also included on methods for reducing risks, risks in individual actions, very-hazardous activities, and priorities and perspective. Risks of natural and occupational radiation and exposure to radioactivity from the nuclear industry are compared with risks of similar or competing activities. (author)

  6. Obesity and risk of infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Kathrine Agergård; Pedersen, Ole Birger Vesterager; Petersen, Mikkel Steen

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It is well known that obesity complicates the course of several diseases. However, it is unknown whether obesity affects the risk of infection among healthy individuals. METHODS: We included 37,808 healthy participants from the Danish Blood Donor Study, who completed a questionnaire...... on health-related items. Obesity was defined as a body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m(2). Infections among participants were identified by relevant ICD-10 codes in the Danish National Patient Register and Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) codes in the Danish Prescription Register. Multivariable Cox proportional...... prescription of antimicrobials. Obesity was associated with risk of hospital-based treatment for infection (women: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.1, 1.9; men: HR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.2, 1.9). For specific infections, obesity was associated with increased risk of abscesses (both sexes...

  7. Rethinking risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloman, H.F.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to bring together the ideas of those who currently practice the many different forms of risk management on a global basis. These forms include guidance of public policy on macro risks, risk financing and insurance for many larger commercial organizations, managing credit, currency and interest rate risks for financial institutions, plus other extensions of risk management including security, quality control, and quality assurance in a health-care environment

  8. A background of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffiths, R.F.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is reviewed under the headings: introduction (historical and general description of harm, hazards and risk and attempts to define them); expressions of risk (individual risk; fatal accident frequency rate; expressions of risk in terms of deaths suffered per unit of activity; loss of life expectancy; frequency vs consequence lines); comparability of risks. The examples include some references to radiation hazards and reactor accidents. (U.K.)

  9. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  10. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  11. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  12. Risk perception versus seismic risk: An introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubeddu, Francesca

    2015-01-01

    A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it

  13. Chagas disease risk in Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Sahotra; Strutz, Stavana E; Frank, David M; Rivaldi, Chissa-Louise; Sissel, Blake; Sánchez-Cordero, Victor

    2010-10-05

    Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, remains a serious public health concern in many areas of Latin America, including México. It is also endemic in Texas with an autochthonous canine cycle, abundant vectors (Triatoma species) in many counties, and established domestic and peridomestic cycles which make competent reservoirs available throughout the state. Yet, Chagas disease is not reportable in Texas, blood donor screening is not mandatory, and the serological profiles of human and canine populations remain unknown. The purpose of this analysis was to provide a formal risk assessment, including risk maps, which recommends the removal of these lacunae. The spatial relative risk of the establishment of autochthonous Chagas disease cycles in Texas was assessed using a five-stage analysis. 1. Ecological risk for Chagas disease was established at a fine spatial resolution using a maximum entropy algorithm that takes as input occurrence points of vectors and environmental layers. The analysis was restricted to triatomine vector species for which new data were generated through field collection and through collation of post-1960 museum records in both México and the United States with sufficiently low georeferenced error to be admissible given the spatial resolution of the analysis (1 arc-minute). The new data extended the distribution of vector species to 10 new Texas counties. The models predicted that Triatoma gerstaeckeri has a large region of contiguous suitable habitat in the southern United States and México, T. lecticularia has a diffuse suitable habitat distribution along both coasts of the same region, and T. sanguisuga has a disjoint suitable habitat distribution along the coasts of the United States. The ecological risk is highest in south Texas. 2. Incidence-based relative risk was computed at the county level using the Bayesian Besag-York-Mollié model and post-1960 T. cruzi incidence data. This risk is concentrated in south Texas. 3. The

  14. Chagas disease risk in Texas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahotra Sarkar

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, remains a serious public health concern in many areas of Latin America, including México. It is also endemic in Texas with an autochthonous canine cycle, abundant vectors (Triatoma species in many counties, and established domestic and peridomestic cycles which make competent reservoirs available throughout the state. Yet, Chagas disease is not reportable in Texas, blood donor screening is not mandatory, and the serological profiles of human and canine populations remain unknown. The purpose of this analysis was to provide a formal risk assessment, including risk maps, which recommends the removal of these lacunae. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The spatial relative risk of the establishment of autochthonous Chagas disease cycles in Texas was assessed using a five-stage analysis. 1. Ecological risk for Chagas disease was established at a fine spatial resolution using a maximum entropy algorithm that takes as input occurrence points of vectors and environmental layers. The analysis was restricted to triatomine vector species for which new data were generated through field collection and through collation of post-1960 museum records in both México and the United States with sufficiently low georeferenced error to be admissible given the spatial resolution of the analysis (1 arc-minute. The new data extended the distribution of vector species to 10 new Texas counties. The models predicted that Triatoma gerstaeckeri has a large region of contiguous suitable habitat in the southern United States and México, T. lecticularia has a diffuse suitable habitat distribution along both coasts of the same region, and T. sanguisuga has a disjoint suitable habitat distribution along the coasts of the United States. The ecological risk is highest in south Texas. 2. Incidence-based relative risk was computed at the county level using the Bayesian Besag-York-Mollié model and post-1960 T. cruzi incidence data. This

  15. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  16. Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sjoeberg, L

    1992-10-01

    Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs.

  17. Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, L.

    1992-10-01

    Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs

  18. Preferences over Social Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten; Rutström, E. Elisabet

    2013-01-01

    that subjects systematically reveal different risk attitudes in a social setting with no prior knowledge about the risk preferences of others compared to when they solely bear the consequences of the decision. However, we also find that subjects are significantly more risk averse when they know the risk......We elicit individual preferences over social risk. We identify the extent to which these preferences are correlated with preferences over individual risk and the well-being of others. We examine these preferences in the context of laboratory experiments over small, anonymous groups, although...... the methodological issues extend to larger groups that form endogenously (e.g., families, committees, communities). Preferences over social risk can be closely approximated by individual risk attitudes when subjects have no information about the risk preferences of other group members. We find no evidence...

  19. Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky......We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...

  20. Diversity in Risk Communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agung Nur Probohudono

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the communication of the five major categories of risk (business, strategy, market and credit risk disclosure over the volatile 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC time period in key South East Asian countries’ manufacturing listed companies. This study is important as it contributes to the literature by providing insights into the voluntary risk disclosure practices using sample countries with different economic scenarios. Key findings are that business risk is the most disclosed category and strategy risk is the least disclosed. Business and credit risk disclosure consistently increase over the three year period, while operating, market and strategy risk disclosure increase in 2008, but then decrease slightly in 2009. Statistical analysis reveals that country of incorporation and size help predict risk disclosure levels. The overall low disclosure levels (26-29% highlight the potential for far higher communication of key risk factors.

  1. Risk, Resources and Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyng Jensen, Jesper; Ponsaing, Claus Due; Thrane, Sof

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we describe a basic mechanism by which risk events can induce indirect value losses to the risk owner: a value loss arising from a risk event interfering with activities that have no logical connection with the risk event other than that of having the same owner; a mechanism we...... to large risk events is to mitigate the consequences of the risk event through negotiating with the environment. If such negotiations fail, the subject will have no alternative but to let other activities and projects under direct control of the risk owner suffer. We end the article with conjectures....... The risk cost component presented in this article, whose existence has previously been argued in the risk literature, has been documented in a single factorial experiment with a unique simulation device named Risky Business. Through our experiments, we have shown that the first response of subjects exposed...

  2. Risk management overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGovern, S.

    1995-01-01

    Launching of the first natural gas contract by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in April 1990 was a huge success which allowed natural gas to surpass crude oil as the most successful launch of any commodity contract. Despite this unprecedented initial success it must be kept in mind that in a competitive marketplace there are risks of many kinds (market risks, price risks, basis risks, currency risks and timing risks), that parties must deal with in everyday operations. The concept of risk management was defined, techniques and issues in risk management were explained, a glossary of fully explained industry terms, and basic financial tools most often used in risk management, were provided. 11 figs

  3. Fracture Risk and Risk Factors for Osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schürer, Christian; Wallaschofski, Henri; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Schober, Hans-Christof; Hannemann, Anke

    2015-05-25

    As the population ages, diseases of the elderly are becoming more common, including osteoporosis. Ways to assess the risk of fracture and the distribution and effects of known risk factors for osteoporosis will be important in planning for future healthcare needs, as well as in the development of preventive strategies. The study population included 6029 men and women aged 20-90 who underwent examination in the second follow-up wave of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2) or in the basal SHIP-Trend Study. The risk of fracture was estimated on the basis of quantitative ultrasonography of the calcaneus. Prior fractures and risk factors for osteoporosis were ascertained in standardized interviews. 4.6% of the male subjects and 10.6% of the female subjects were judged to have an elevated risk of fracture. The corresponding percentages among subjects over age 65 were 8.8% for men and 28.2% for women. Even among subjects under age 55, risk factors for osteoporosis were associated with lower bone stiffness: the mean stiffness index was 103/98 (men/women) without risk factors, 99/96 with one risk factor, and 93/95 with more than one risk factor. Logistic regression analysis yielded an odds ratio of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.44-2.50; p<0.01) for prevalent fractures among subjects aged 75 and older compared to subjects under age 55. The data indicate a high prevalence of osteoporosis from age 65 onward. These findings are consistent with those of other studies from Germany and across Europe. Younger men and women should already begin taking steps to counteract modifiable risk factors.

  4. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  5. Project Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jr., R. F. Miles

    1995-01-01

    Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

  6. Risk, Uncertainty, and Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

    2016-01-01

    21288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler. Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss...... aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique...... feature of entrepreneurs: their willingness to risk losses....

  7. Risk, Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

    . Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore...... entrepreneurs to managers – a suitable comparison group – and employees (n = 2288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler...... suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique feature of entrepreneurs; their willingness to risk losses....

  8. Gender, risk and journalism

    OpenAIRE

    Harris, Janet; Mosdell, Nicholas; Griffiths, James

    2016-01-01

    Are female journalists more at risk in covering conflict than their male colleagues? \\ud Beck states ‘risk is the anticipation of the catastrophe – so it is existent and non-existent’. Is the contention that female journalists are more at risk, knowledge, or a construction of knowledge? Are Editors and journalists who decide that women are more at risk merely anticipating a catastrophe? There is no certainty that women would be more at risk, but the fear that women are more at risk can preven...

  9. Cyber risk in banking

    OpenAIRE

    Linert, Jan

    2015-01-01

    The bachelor thesis deals with the cyber risk in banking industry. Its main goal is to stress the imporatance of cyber risk both verbally and numericaly and review the approach of banks to this risk. The first part of this thesis specifies what cyber risk is and how it fits among other operational risks, presents the common cyber-attacks and archetypes of cyber criminals, later it delves into the cyber risk in Czech Republic and at the end of this part it mentions the legislation that covers ...

  10. Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

    2017-04-01

    Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

  11. Risk management and energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlevaro, F.; Romerio, F.

    1992-01-01

    In five sessions the following topics were dealt with: risk problems, risk analysis and evaluation tools, risks in industrial societies, risks of energy production, technological risks, ethics and political-social consensus. figs., tabs., refs

  12. Risk and society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tubiana, M.; Vrousos, C.; Pages, J.P.; Carde, C.

    1999-01-01

    This book brings together the communications presented at the colloquium 'risk and society' held in Paris (France) on November 1998. During this colloquium, the various aspects of risk and of its management were discussed by medical specialists, historians, industrialists, engineers, philosophers, lawyers, politicians and administration representatives. The first theme concerns the controversies generated by the development of some activities (genetics, bio-technologies, nuclear and radiations use). The second theme concerns the management of risks and the way to conciliate the point of view of authorities and citizens (confidence of the public with respect to experts, scientists, industrialists, government and administrative representatives, role played by the media). The debates that took place during the colloquium have shown that the public opinion concerning the nuclear activities or the new technologies greatly depends on the ideological attitudes and on the public's likes and dislikes with respect to some categories of actors (distrust with respect to public decisions, fears with respect to changes and future, nostalgia of the past). The following aspects are reviewed: Notions of risk and hazard (risk and health, risk in today's society, medicine and society, the point of view of the industrialists and of the scientific and technical specialists); from the psychological aspects of the risk to its social aspects (survey of the risk assessment battlefield, social attenuation and amplification of risk, the feeling of risks in Europe, insecurity and delinquency, controversies around radioactivity and health); the negotiation and communication about risks (risk and public health, negotiation around risks, risks and information dissemination about the public debate, communication and crisis, evolution of risk communication, comparison between American and European approaches, the Seveso directive); the public debate and the evolution of risks management (the

  13. Risk management guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briscoe, G.J.

    1977-06-01

    Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

  14. Risk management at university

    OpenAIRE

    Ivanova, H.; Abramovich, S.

    2013-01-01

    This article observes the basic recommendations for the risk management system in higher education as an example Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno. Consider the risk-management standard that based in a process approach

  15. Technical risk and society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindackers, K.H.

    1983-01-01

    The report explains the possibilities and limits of risk analysis, risk assessment by the citizen, especially in hearings in the course of licensing procedures, and decisive causes why assessments on the part of the citizens may fail. (HP) [de

  16. Management of business risks

    OpenAIRE

    BAZARBAY A.

    2015-01-01

    The article presents methodological ideas concerning the problem of risk management. Special attention is paid to increasing of enterprises' operating efficiency by means of risk-management system development in business organizations.

  17. Fuzzy risk matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markowski, Adam S.; Mannan, M. Sam

    2008-01-01

    A risk matrix is a mechanism to characterize and rank process risks that are typically identified through one or more multifunctional reviews (e.g., process hazard analysis, audits, or incident investigation). This paper describes a procedure for developing a fuzzy risk matrix that may be used for emerging fuzzy logic applications in different safety analyses (e.g., LOPA). The fuzzification of frequency and severity of the consequences of the incident scenario are described which are basic inputs for fuzzy risk matrix. Subsequently using different design of risk matrix, fuzzy rules are established enabling the development of fuzzy risk matrices. Three types of fuzzy risk matrix have been developed (low-cost, standard, and high-cost), and using a distillation column case study, the effect of the design on final defuzzified risk index is demonstrated

  18. Canadian nuclear risk experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamel, P.E.

    1982-05-01

    Risk assessment in the Canadian nuclear fuel cycle is a very important and complex subject. Many levels of government are involved in deciding the acceptable limits for the risks, taking into account the benefits for society [fr

  19. [Global risk management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

    2015-08-01

    Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  20. Stroke - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... oxygen. Brain cells can die, causing lasting damage. Risk factors are things that increase your chance of ... a disease or condition. This article discusses the risk factors for stroke and things you can do ...

  1. Risk and cognition

    CERN Document Server

    Faucher, Colette

    2015-01-01

    This book presents recent research using cognitive science to apprehend risk situations and elaborate new organizations, new systems and new methodological tools in response. The book demonstrates the reasons, advantages and implications of the association of the concepts of cognition and risk. It is shown that this association has strong consequences on how to apprehend critical situations that emerge  within various activity domains, and how to elaborate responses to these critical situations.. The following topics are covered by the book: ·     Influence of the culture in risk management, ·     Influence of the risk communication in risk management, ·     User-centred design to improve risk situation management, ·     Designing new tools to assist risk situation management, ·     Risk prevention in industrial activities.

  2. Risk a multidisciplinary introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Straub, Daniel; Welpe, Isabell

    2014-01-01

    This is a unique book addressing the integration of risk methodology from various fields. It stimulates intellectual debate and communication across disciplines, promotes better risk management practices and contributes to the development of risk management methodologies. Book chapters explain fundamental risk models and measurement, and address risk and security issues from diverse areas such as finance and insurance, health sciences, life sciences, engineering and information science. Integrated Risk Sciences is an emerging field, that considers risks in different fields aiming at a common language, and at sharing and improving methods developed in different fields. Readers should have a Bachelor degree and at least one basic university course in statistics and probability. The main goal of the book is to provide basic knowledge on risk and security in a common language; the authors have taken particular care to ensure that each chapter can be understood by doctoral students and researchers across disciplin...

  3. Risk in International Business

    OpenAIRE

    Canavan, Deirdre; Sharkey Scott, Pamela

    2012-01-01

    Risk in international business can stress risk adverse behaviour to counteract foreign market uncertainty or individual entrepreneurial risk taking behaviour dependent on the characteristics of both the business sector and the individual. International business theory would suggest that the perception of risk may differ in situations including where new market entry is incremental, is taken in larger or earlier stages, or indeed whether it may be experienced in a continually fluctuating manne...

  4. Risk estimates for bone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlenker, R.A.

    1982-01-01

    Bone sarcoma data for 226 228 Ra and 224 Ra are analyzed within the dosage ranges where the observed risk is zero. The uncertainty in the risk may be effectively illustrated by using pairs of functions based on a statistically-based measure of confidence. For radiation protection, the appropriate measure of risk is cumulative incidence in the presence of competing risks, as this takes into account the reduction of radiation effects brought about by natural mortality

  5. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

  6. Credit risk transfer

    OpenAIRE

    Bank for International Settlements

    2003-01-01

    Executive summary Techniques for transferring credit risk, such as financial guarantees and credit insurance, have been a long-standing feature of financial markets. In the past few years, however, the range of credit risk transfer (CRT) instruments and the circumstances in which they are used have widened considerably. A number of factors have contributed to this growth, including: greater focus by banks and other financial institutions on risk management; a more rigorous approach to risk/re...

  7. Risk management for whales

    OpenAIRE

    Cont, R; Wagalath, L

    2016-01-01

    We propose framework for modeling portfolio risk which integrates market risk with liquidation costs which may arise in stress scenarios. Our model provides a systematic method for computing liquidation-adjusted risk measures for a portfolio. Calculation of Liquidation-adjusted VaR (LVaR) for sample portfolios reveals a substantial impact of liquidation costs on portfolio risk for portfolios with large concentrated positions.

  8. Risks and perceptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, T.

    1987-01-01

    The article on the risks and perceptions of nuclear power was previously published in the Times Higher Education Supplement, May 1987. The public attitude towards risks associated with nuclear power, compared with other risks in everyday life, is examined. Results of psychological studies of the perceived risk of nuclear power are also discussed. The author argues that fear of nuclear catastrophe is not one which can be brushed aside by statistics or punditry. (UK)

  9. Communication about risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    The conditions, difficulties and possibilities of communication on technological risks are detailed here. There is a description of the types and levels of argument on risks and the risk-concept itself, of the research field of risk communication, of the conceptional frame-work of the working-party, of the research programme and of the chances for a long-term prospect from the group. (DG) [de

  10. IT Risk register

    OpenAIRE

    Kohout, Karel

    2011-01-01

    The theoretical part of the thesis analyzes several selected methodologies and best-practices related to information technology risks management, with focus on documents and guidance developed by ISACA. It builds a set of ideas and basic requirements for effective model of an IT risk register. Strong emphasis is placed on mapping CobiT 4.1 based Risk IT to COBIT 5. The practical part describes implementation of an exploratory web-based IT risk register in Python programming language utilizing...

  11. Nuclear benefits and risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saunders, P

    1987-03-01

    The paper reviews the broader issues that affect nuclear power in a world energy context. The importance of nuclear power as an energy source is described, as well as the environmental effects of different energy sources. The risks associated with the nuclear industry are discussed with respect to: risks due to radiation exposure, risks to workers in the nuclear industry, and risks to the public due to discharges from nuclear installations. (U.K.).

  12. Perception of radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.

    1992-01-01

    Perception of risks by people depends on many factors, either characterizing the individuals, or specific to the risk sources. The risk concept, which confuses the issue, is precised first. Second, the perception phenomenon is presented as an interactive process involving the individual, the hazard, and the social context. Third, dimensions of perception are listed and used to describe the perception of radiation risks. Finally, the relation between perception and attitude is clarified. (author) 50 refs

  13. Modern bank's credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk is the most important risk banks have to face with. It occurs due to an obligation created because of debtors' capital and interest rate nonpayment. Debtors obligations non-fulfilment may lead to great losses and insolvency in bank's business. Credit risk is the crucial reason of bank's insolvency. Over 80% of bank's balance sheet is exposed to credit risk.

  14. Cardiovascular risk calculation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    James A. Ker

    2014-08-20

    Aug 20, 2014 ... smoking and elevated blood sugar levels (diabetes mellitus). These risk ... These are risk charts, e.g. FRS, a non-laboratory-based risk calculation, and ... for hard cardiovascular end-points, such as coronary death, myocardial ...

  15. Business history and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Terry Gourvish

    2003-01-01

    CARR, in association with the Centre for Business History, University of Leeds, held a successful workshop on 'Business History and Risk' on 20 February 2002. The workshop, which was sponsored by the ESRC, brought together business historians, economists, accountants and risk analysts to develop an interdisciplinary discussion on understandings of risk by employers, workers and governments in different historical settings.

  16. Cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Peter; Abildstrøm, Steen Z.; Jespersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Aim European society of cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in asymptomatic individuals is based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, which estimates individual 10-year risk of death from CVD. We assessed the potential...

  17. Readings in risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Glickman, Theodore S; Gough, Michael

    1990-01-01

    ... from Resources for the Future are distributed worldwide by The Johns Hopkins University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Readings in risk I Theodore S. Glickman and Michael Gough, editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-915707-55-1 (alk. paper) 1. Technology-Risk assessment. 2. Health risk assessment....

  18. Contact Lens Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... There is a risk of eye infection from bacteria in swimming pool water, hot tubs, lakes and the ocean Replace your contact lens storage case every 3 months or as directed by your eye care professional. Other Risks of Contact Lenses Other risks of contact lenses include pink eye ( ...

  19. Financial Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Catalin-Florinel Stanescu; Laurentiu Mircea Simion

    2011-01-01

    Concerns about the financial risk is increasing. In this climate, companies of all types and sizes want a robust framework for financial risk management to meet compliance requirements, contribute to better decision making and increase performance. Financial risk management professionals working with financial institutions and other corporate clients to achieve these objectives.

  20. Business risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cosby, C.

    2015-01-01

    Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.

  1. Business risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cosby, C., E-mail: Christine.cosby@brucepower.com [Bruce Power, Tiverton, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.

  2. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  3. Decreasing relative risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    2007-01-01

    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

  4. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  5. Synthetic risks, risk potency, and carcinogen regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viscusi, W K; Hakes, J K

    1998-01-01

    This article analyzes a comprehensive sample of over 350 chemicals tested for carcinogenicity to assess the determinants of the probability of regulation. Controlling for differences in the risk potency and noncancer risks, synthetic chemicals have a significantly higher probability of regulation overall: this is due to the greater likelihood of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulation. Measures of risk potency increase the probability of regulation by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have a somewhat weaker positive effect on regulation by the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), and decrease the likelihood of regulation by the FDA. The overall regulatory pattern is one in which the FDA targets synthetic chemicals and chemicals that pose relatively minor cancer risk. The EPA particularly performed more sensibly than many critics have suggested.

  6. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  7. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  8. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  9. Individual Property Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael S. Finke

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews household property risk management and estimates normatively optimal choice under theoretical assumptions. Although risk retention limits are common in the financial planning industry, estimates of optimal risk retention that include both financial and human wealth far exceed limits commonly recommended. Households appear to frame property losses differently from other wealth losses leading to wealth-reducing, excess risk transfer. Possible theoretical explanations for excess sensitivity to loss are reviewed. Differences between observed and optimal risk management imply a large potential gain from improved choice.

  10. Life without risk?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hohlneicher, G.; Raschke, E.

    1989-01-01

    Mankind's sensitivity to new, global threats, to chemical and radioactive pollution and to interventions in the biological process actually gives rise to a one-sided and narrow range of reactions. Demands for zero-risk make one forget that a reduced risk many possibly lead to a far more dangerous risk in another place. That no uniform view of things can arise in this way is shown by these articles, from the areas of science, politics and the arts, on questions of world population, waste management, climatic change, genetic manipulation, philosophical and ethical problems of risk acceptance as well as the responsibility for risks. (DG) [de

  11. Agile risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Moran, Alan

    2014-01-01

    This work is the definitive guide for IT managers and agile practitioners. It elucidates the principles of agile risk management and how these relate to individual projects. Explained in clear and concise terms, this synthesis of project risk management and agile techniques is illustrated using the major methodologies such as XP, Scrum and DSDM.Although the agile community frequently cites risk management, research suggests that risk is often narrowly defined and, at best, implicitly treated, which in turn leads to an inability to make informed decisions concerning risk and reward and a poor u

  12. FOREIGN CURRENCY RISK HEDGING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela SUDACEVSCHI

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the traditional types of exchange rate risk faced by firms and some of principal methods of exchange risk management that a company which make foreign currency operations can use. Foreign currency risk management involves both assessing the risk faced by the companies and adopting measures for the risk hedging or reduce the damage it may cause. The damages result from the company’s unfavorable difference between the exchange rates of the currencies in which the transactions are made.

  13. riskRegression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ozenne, Brice; Sørensen, Anne Lyngholm; Scheike, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    In the presence of competing risks a prediction of the time-dynamic absolute risk of an event can be based on cause-specific Cox regression models for the event and the competing risks (Benichou and Gail, 1990). We present computationally fast and memory optimized C++ functions with an R interface...... for predicting the covariate specific absolute risks, their confidence intervals, and their confidence bands based on right censored time to event data. We provide explicit formulas for our implementation of the estimator of the (stratified) baseline hazard function in the presence of tied event times. As a by...... functionals. The software presented here is implemented in the riskRegression package....

  14. Risk management in Takaful

    OpenAIRE

    Akhter, Waheed

    2010-01-01

    Risk management is of vital importance in Islam and Takāful provides a way to manage risks in business according to Sharī’ah principles. This research paper attempts to identify various types of risks involved in Takāful business that affect operational and investment functions of Takāful operators across the globe. It lays down criteria for Takāful operator to manage those risks effectively. However, Takāful operators often face difficulty in managing market and credit risks as Sharī’ah comp...

  15. MASTERING SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borut Jereb

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Risks in supply chains represent one of the major business issues today. Since every organizationstrives for success and uninterrupted operations, efficient supply chain risk management is crucial.During supply chain risk research at the Faculty of Logistics in Maribor (Slovenia some keyissues in the field were identified, the major being the lack of instruments which can make riskmanagement in an organization easier and more efficient. Consequently, a model which captures anddescribes risks in an organization and its supply chain was developed. It is in accordance with thegeneral risk management and supply chain security standards, the ISO 31000 and ISO 28000families. It also incorporates recent finding from the risk management field, especially from theviewpoint of segmenting of the public.The model described in this paper focuses on the risks itself by defining them by different keydimensions, so that risk management is simplified and can be undertaken in every supply chain andorganizations within them. Based on our mode and consequent practical research in actualorganizations, a freely accessible risk catalog has been assembled and published online from the risksthat have been identified so far. This catalog can serve as a checklist and a starting point in supplychain risk management in organizations. It also incorporates experts from the field into a community,in order to assemble an ever growing list of possible risks and to provide insight into the model andits value in practice.

  16. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  17. Perception of nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Hubert, Ph.

    1996-01-01

    Many factors are involved in the perception of a risk by individuals. Some are individual related (psychology, knowledge, experience), others describe the social environment (culture, ideology), others at end precise the nature of the risk. The word risk has various meanings and is understood differently by the three main categories involved in risk management, that is engineers, administrators and lay public. Several models which describe the perception phenomenon are presented. The dimensions affecting perception are listed. Based on public opinion poll data, a risk taxonomy is proposed, perceived nuclear risks are compared with other risks, and results are given concerning trust in the information diffused and the credibility of those in charge of nuclear activities. (author)

  18. Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunesen, Eva Rytter

    This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk...... for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian...... and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...

  19. Low Risk Anomalies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

    This paper shows theoretically and empirically that beta- and volatility-based low risk anomalies are driven by return skewness. The empirical patterns concisely match the predictions of our model that endogenizes the role of skewness for stock returns through default risk. With increasing downside...... risk, the standard capital asset pricing model (CAPM) increasingly overestimates expected equity returns relative to firms' true (skew-adjusted) market risk. Empirically, the profitability of betting against beta/volatility increases with firms' downside risk, and the risk-adjusted return differential...... of betting against beta/volatility among low skew firms compared to high skew firms is economically large. Our results suggest that the returns to betting against beta or volatility do not necessarily pose asset pricing puzzles but rather that such strategies collect premia that compensate for skew risk...

  20. Social amplification of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasperson, R.E.; Renn, O.; Slovic, P.; Kasperson, J.X.; Emani, S.

    1989-01-01

    The risks associated with radioactive and other hazardous waste disposal may be expected to interact with societal processes to enlarge or attenuate the consequences of risks and risk events. This article summarizes a conceptual framework that depicts the social amplification of risk. Using a data base of 128 hazard events that have occurred largely over the past ten years, the authors examine the role of physical consequences, media coverage, and public perceptions of risk in generating social and economic impacts. The analysis concludes that social amplification processes substantially shape the nature and magnitude of those impacts but also that such social amplification appears to be systematically related to characteristics of the risks and risk events

  1. Limit lines for risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, D.C.; Baybutt, P.

    1982-01-01

    Approaches to the regulation of risk from technological systems, such as nuclear power plants or chemical process plants, in which potential accidents may result in a broad range of adverse consequences must take into account several different aspects of risk. These include overall or average risk, accidents posing high relative risks, the rate at which accident probability decreases with increasing accident consequences, and the impact of high frequency, low consequence accidents. A hypothetical complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF), with appropriately chosen parametric form, meets all these requirements. The Farmer limit line, by contrast, places limits on the risks due to individual accident sequences, and cannot adequately account for overall risk. This reduces its usefulness as a regulatory tool. In practice, the CCDF is used in the Canadian nuclear licensing process, while the Farmer limit line approach, supplemented by separate qualitative limits on overall risk, is employed in the United Kingdom

  2. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  3. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  4. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  5. Long-term risks of kidney living donation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maggiore, Umberto; Budde, Klemens; Heemann, Uwe

    2017-01-01

    Two recent matched cohort studies from the USA and Norway published in 2014 have raised some concerns related to the long-term safety of kidney living donation. Further studies on the long-term risks of living donation have since been published. In this position paper, Developing Education Science...... and Care for Renal Transplantation in European States (DESCARTES) board members critically review the literature in an effort to summarize the current knowledge concerning long-term risks of kidney living donation to help physicians for decision-making purposes and for providing information...... to the prospective live donors. Long-term risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) can be partially foreseen by trying to identify donors at risk of developing ‘de novo’ kidney diseases during life post-donation and by predicting lifetime ESRD risk. However, lifetime risk may be difficult to assess in young donors...

  6. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  7. Risk perception and risk communication: lessons learned

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baillif, L.; Sackur, J.

    1998-01-01

    Industry can master risks but it cannot master the representations people have of these risks. This is why distortions may occur, as the public perceives risks where they are not, or in a totally deformed way. To deal with this type of situation which is dangerous in the long run, both for society and industry, it is necessary to study in detail where and how the difference between real risks and perceived risks is introduced. It then becomes possible to determine what means of action are available to manage the representations and the perceptions of risks. We shall mention two rather different examples of type of direct contact with the industrial reality; in France, we have determined policy of visits of nuclear sites (more than 10 000 people visit Cogema- la Hague site yearly), mainly addressed to school children and people living in the vicinity of the site. During these visits there is of course no question of explaining the detailed operation of the facility or the risks it generates. The purpose is to make the representation of the nuclear industry just as familiar as the representation of another large-scale technology tool: trains, dams,. In a different manner, missions are organised by Cogema - B.N.F.L.- O.R.C. (Overseas reprocessing Committee) to de dramatize the transport of high level vitrified wastes from Europe to Japan. these missions travel through those countries the ship come close to. Here, again, although the target is more the relays of opinion, the effective presence of specialized transport ship is a crucial element in putting a halt to phantasmic representations, as they are born from the remoteness of the object. (N.C.)

  8. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  9. Risk Factors in Derivatives Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the article is to analyse and present the classification of risks actual to derivative securities. The analysis is based on classical and modern literature findings and analysis of newest statistical data. The analysis led to the conclusion, that the main risks typical for derivatives contracts and their traders are market risk, liquidity risk, credit and counterparty risk, legal risk and transactions risk. Pricing risk and systemic risk is also quite important. The analysis showed that market risk is the most important kind of risk that in many situations influences the level of remaining risks.

  10. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  11. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  12. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  13. Optimizing risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kindred, G.W.

    2000-01-01

    Commercial nuclear power plant management is focussed on the safe, efficient, economical production of electricity. To accomplish the safe aspect of the equation, risk must be determined for the operation and maintenance of the facility. To accomplish the efficient aspect of the equation, management must understand those risks and factor risk insights into their decision process. The final piece of the equation is economical which is accomplished by minimizing, plant outage durations and proper utilization of resources. Probabilistic Risk Assessment can provide the risk insights to accomplish all three; safety, efficiency, and economically. How? Safe production of electricity can be quantified by use of PRA modeling and other risk insights that can determine the core damage frequency. Efficient production of electricity can be influenced by providing management with quantified risk insights for use in decision making. And, one example of economical production of electricity is by not having over conservative deterministic based defense in depth approaches to system maintenance and availability. By using risk-informed insights nuclear safety can be quantified and risk can be managed. Confidence in this approach can be achieved by ensuring the content and quality of the PRA is standardized throughout the industry. The time has arrived for Probabilistic Risk Assessment to take an active position as a major role player in the safe, efficient, and economical operation of commercial nuclear power plants. (author)

  14. Risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inhaber, Herbert.

    1978-03-01

    Every human activity involves risk of accident or disease. Generation of energy is no exception. Although such risk has been considered for conventional systems (coal, oil and nuclear), a similar analysis for the so-called alternative or non-conventional systems (solar, wind, ocean thermal and methanol) has been lacking. This paper presents an evaluation of the risk, both occupational and to the public, of non-conventional energy systems. They are considered both in absolute terms and in relation to conventional systems. The risk of most non-conventional systems, per unit of energy output, is comparable to, and in some cases much higher than, the risk from coal and oil. This conclusion holds whether we consider deaths or injuries. Nuclear power and natural gas had the lowest overall risk of the ten technologies considered. Ocean thermal energy ranked third. The surprising result is that the other seven technologies considered were found to be up to 100 times less safe. The total risk is calculated by considering six components: material acquisition and construction, emissions caused by material production, operation and maintenance, energy back-up, energy storage, and transportation. In this way the risk of widely different systems can be fairly assessed. This methodology of 'risk accounting' will not tell us which energy technology to use. However, it can be employed to inform society of the risk inherent in competing energy systems. (author)

  15. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  16. Risk-informed regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, D.R.

    2003-01-01

    In assessing safety for nuclear facilities, regulators have traditionally used a deterministic approach. New techniques for assessing nuclear or radiological risks make it possible for regulators to incorporate risk insights into their regulations. By 'risk-informing' the regulatory processes, independent bodies tasked with protecting the health and safety of the public can focus on those design and operational issues most important to safety. Such an approach is a move away from prescriptive regulations that were based on conservative engineering judgments toward regulations focused on issues that contribute significantly to safety. Despite the availability of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools, organisations often struggle with how to best use this capability. Most international regulations are still based largely on deterministic analyses that were developed without the benefit of quantitative or measurable estimates of risk. PRA considers issues of risk in a more comprehensive manner by examining a wider spectrum of initiating events and their frequency, and considers the likelihood of events in a rigorous and comprehensive manner. In some countries, nuclear regulators are actively moving toward increasing the use of risk insights in a variety of strategic arenas, including risk-informed technical specifications (operating limits and conditions), in-service inspection and testing, programs, and assessment and enforcement actions. A risk-informed approach enhances the traditional deterministic approach by explicitly considering a broader range of safety challenges, focusing resources on the basis of risk significance, considering a broader range of counter measures to mitigate challenges, and explicitly identifying and quantifying uncertainties in analyses. (author)

  17. Managing risk at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Rutherford, W.A.

    1994-01-01

    Clearly, there is sufficient motivation from Washington for the Hanford community to pay particular attention to the risks associated with the substantial volumes of radiological, hazardous, and mixed waste at Hanford. But there is also another reason for emphasizing risk: Hanford leaders have come to realize that their decisions must consider risk and risk reduction if those decisions are to be technically sound, financially affordable, and publicly acceptable. The 560-square miles of desert land is worth only a few thousand dollars an acre (if that) -- hardly enough to justify the almost two billion dollars that will be spent at Hanford this year. The benefit of cleaning up the Hanford Site is not the land but the reduction of potential risk to the public and the environment for future generations. If risk reduction is our ultimate goal, decisions about priority of effort and resource allocation must consider those risks, now and in the future. The purpose of this paper is to describe how Hanford is addressing the issues of risk assessment, risk management, and risk-based decision making and to share some of our experiences in these areas

  18. Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

    2012-02-15

    The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

  19. The infectious disease blood safety risk of Australian hemochromatosis donations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoad, Veronica; Bentley, Peter; Bell, Barbara; Pathak, Praveen; Chan, Hiu Tat; Keller, Anthony

    2016-12-01

    It has been suggested that blood donors with hereditary hemochromatosis may pose an increased infectious disease risk and adversely affect recipient outcomes. This study compares the infectious disease risk of whole blood (WB) donors enrolled as therapeutic (T) donors to voluntary WB donors to evaluate the safety of blood products provided by the T donors. This was a retrospective cohort study of all WB donations at the Australian Red Cross Blood Service who donated between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2013, comparing a yearly mean of 11,789 T donors with 107,773 total donations and a yearly mean of 468,889 voluntary WB donors with 2,584,705 total donations. We compared postdonation notification of infectious illnesses, bacterial contamination screening results, and positive tests for blood borne viruses in T and WB donors. Rates of transfusion-transmissible infections in donations destined for component manufacture were significantly lower in therapeutic donations compared to voluntary donations (8.4 vs. 21.6 per 100,000 donations). Bacterial contamination (43.0 vs. 45.9 per 100,000 donations) and postdonation illness reporting (136.2 vs. 110.8 per 100,000 donations) were similar in both cohorts. The Australian therapeutic venisection program enables T donors to provide a safe and acceptable source of donated WB that has a low infectious disease risk profile. © 2016 AABB.

  20. Seismic risk perception test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Camassi, Romano; Pino, Nicola Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    The perception of risks involves the process of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of events, activities or technologies. In the natural sciences the term risk seems to be clearly defined, it means the probability distribution of adverse effects, but the everyday use of risk has different connotations (Renn, 2008). The two terms, hazards and risks, are often used interchangeably by the public. Knowledge, experience, values, attitudes and feelings all influence the thinking and judgement of people about the seriousness and acceptability of risks. Within the social sciences however the terminology of 'risk perception' has become the conventional standard (Slovic, 1987). The mental models and other psychological mechanisms which people use to judge risks (such as cognitive heuristics and risk images) are internalized through social and cultural learning and constantly moderated (reinforced, modified, amplified or attenuated) by media reports, peer influences and other communication processes (Morgan et al., 2001). Yet, a theory of risk perception that offers an integrative, as well as empirically valid, approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing". To understand the perception of risk is necessary to consider several areas: social, psychological, cultural, and their interactions. Among the various research in an international context on the perception of natural hazards, it seemed promising the approach with the method of semantic differential (Osgood, C.E., Suci, G., & Tannenbaum, P. 1957, The measurement of meaning. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press). The test on seismic risk perception has been constructed by the method of the semantic differential. To compare opposite adjectives or terms has been used a Likert's scale to seven point. The test consists of an informative part and six sections respectively dedicated to: hazard; vulnerability (home and workplace); exposed value (with reference to

  1. ABO blood group and risk of cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vasan, Senthil K; Hwang, Jinseub; Rostgaard, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    groups and site-specific cancer risk in a large cohort of healthy blood donors from Sweden and Denmark. RESULTS: A total of 1.6 million donors were followed over 27 million person-years (20 million in Sweden and 7 million in Denmark). We observed 119,584 cancer cases. Blood groups A, AB and B were......INTRODUCTION: The associations between ABO blood group and cancer risk have been studied repeatedly, but results have been variable. Consistent associations have only been reported for pancreatic and gastric cancers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We estimated associations between different ABO blood...... associated either with increased or decreased risk of cancer at 13 anatomical sites (p≤0.05), compared to blood group O. Consistent with assessment using a false discovery rate approach, significant associations with ABO blood group were observed for cancer of the pancreas, breast, and upper gastrointestinal...

  2. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  3. Price Risk and Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udo Broll

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This note studies the risk-management decisions of a risk-averse farmer. The farmer faces multiple sources of price uncertainty. He sells commodities to two markets at two prices, but only one of these markets has a futures market. We show that the farmer’s optimal commodity futures market position, i.e., a cross-hedge strategy, is actually an over-hedge, a full-hedge, or an under-hedge strategy, depending on whether the two prices are strongly positively correlated, uncorrelated, or negatively correlated, respectively.

  4. Nuclear safety research - risk and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossin, A.D.

    1982-01-01

    The nuclear power industry deals in many kinds of risks, complicated by political stress and communication problems. Power plant design must prepare for the unexpected attack, physical as well as psychological, but a zero-defects technology is not possible. The public has not been made sufficiently aware of the risk the US takes if there is not enough energy because nuclear power has been curtailed. Energy shortages could drive industry and jobs abroad, force the public to turn to government for a solution, drive the country to energy allocation, and cause a nuclear war. Policies that prevent closing the nuclear fuel cycle are ineffective in preventing proliferation and counterproductive to national needs

  5. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

  6. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  7. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  8. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  9. Ransomware: Minimizing the Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Justin

    2016-01-01

    This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so "clinician" is used to indicate all treatment team members.

  10. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  11. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  12. [Risk factors of schizophrenia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suvisaari, Jaana

    2010-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a multifactorial, neurodevelopmental disorder caused by a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. Disturbances of brain development begin prenatally, while different environmental insults further affect postnatal brain maturation during childhood and adolescence. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have succeeded in identifying hundreds of new risk variants for common, multifactorial diseases. In schizophrenia research, GWAS have found several rare copy number variants that considerably increase the risk of schizophrenia, and have shown an association between schizophrenia and the major histocompatibility complex. Research on environmental risk factors in recent years has provided new information particularly on risk factors related to pregnancy and childhood rearing environment. Gene-environment interactions have become a central research topic. There is evidence that genetically susceptible children are more vulnerable to the effects of unstable childhood rearing environment and other environmental risk factors.

  13. Entrepreneurs Facing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zichella, Giulio; Reichstein, Toke

    to choose risk vis-à-vis certainty. Drawing on prospect theory, we formulate hypotheses about the greater likelihood that entrepreneurs (compared to others) will choose risk immediately after a positive gain, but will shy away from risk compared to others as the degree of risk increases. The hypotheses......Theory conjectures that entrepreneurs are more likely than others to make risky choices. However, the empirical evidence is mixed. This paper offers new insights into entrepreneurs’ tendencies to make risky choices, by investigating the circumstances in which entrepreneurs are more/less likely...... are tested using data collected in laboratory-based real money games experiments. We find support for our hypotheses, indicating that entrepreneurs’ bias towards risk is circumstantial. These results have fundamental implications for our understanding of factors guiding entrepreneurial choices under risk...

  14. On risks and acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.

    1981-01-01

    A very attractive notion is that it should be possible not only to determine how much risk is associated with any particular activity, but also to determine if that risk is acceptable. Stated boldly this seems an entirely unobjectionable and indeed a very acceptable notion. There is, however, underlying this idea, a mistaken view of risk which we might refer to as the ''phlogiston'' theory of risk. In this paper, presented at the SRP meeting on Ethical and Legal Aspects of Radiological Protection, the phlogiston theory of risk is described; secondly, it will be argued that it is too simple a theory to be realistic or useful; and thirdly, the management of risk will be placed in a wider decision framework. Acceptability, it will be argued is highly dependent on context, and it is not possible, therefore, to lay down generally applicable notions of acceptability. (author)

  15. The risk game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    In the context of health, safety, and environmental decisions, the concept of risk involves value judgments that reflect much more than just the probability and consequences of the occurrence of an event. This article conceptualizes the act of defining and assessing risk as a game, in which the rules must be socially negotiated within the context of a specific problem. This contextualist view of risk provides insight into why technical approaches to risk management often fail with problems such as those involving radiation and chemicals, where scientific experts and the public disagree on the nature of the risks. It also highlights the need for allowing the interested and affected parties to define and play the game, thus emphasizing the importance of institutional, procedural, and societal processes in risk-management decisions

  16. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  17. Ransomware: Minimizing the Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Pope, Justin

    2016-01-01

    This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liabili...

  18. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  19. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de

  20. Value of risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Vik, Marie Amdal

    2012-01-01

    Master's thesis in Risk management The overall aim of this study was to discuss the validity of the hypothesis that risk management contributes with added value to projects and the enterprise holding the projects, and consequently to the enterprise’s stakeholders. To examine this hypothesis, a case study of three projects taken from the same portfolio at Statoil was selected. The projects were said to have an active risk management. Data was collected from the project’s documentation as...

  1. On Modeling Risk Shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Dorofeenko, Victor; Lee, Gabriel; Salyer, Kevin; Strobel, Johannes

    2016-01-01

    Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) and high-risk (relatively large second moment for productivity) and the fraction of both types is...

  2. Nuclear financial risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; George, V.P.

    1986-01-01

    This study examines the economy-wide financial risk associated with reactor accidents as a result of various regulatory response options that might be imposed after a serious accident, including partial or complete nuclear moratoria. The authors find that such risks may be two to three times greater than the plant-specific financial risk estimates that have previously been calculated by others (ie 500 million (1985) dollars per reactor year versus 5 to 50 million dollars). (author)

  3. Supply Cain Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Goodwin, Les

    2011-01-01

    “The management of supply chain risk is crucial to any business, more so to Rolls Royce who face an almost doubling of load within the next 10 years. So what is supply chain risk management and how well is it deployed within an operational business of Rolls Royce? What are the tools and techniques available and what are the key issues around implementing world class supply chain risk management with a Supply Chain Unit within Rolls Royce?”

  4. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  5. High-Risk List

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    economy. The World Bank has said that “corruption creates an unfavorable business environment by undermining the operation efficiency of firms and... Bank Began as ‘Ponzi Scheme,’” 11/27/2012. 64 Independent Joint Anti-Corruption Monitoring and Evaluation Committee, Unfinished Business : The Follow...HIGH RISK AREA 7: Oversight 51 HIGH-RISK AREA 8: Strategy and Planning 55 CONCLUSION HIGH RISK LIST I JANUARY 11, 2017 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  6. Supply chain risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Hollstein; Frank Himpel

    2013-01-01

    Background: Supply chain risk management increasingly gains prominence in many international industries. In order to strengthen supply chain structures, processes, and networks, adequate potentials for risk management need to be built (focus on effective logistics) and to be utilized (focus on efficient logistics). Natural-based disasters, such as the case of Fukushima, illustrate how crucial risk management is. Method: By aligning a theoretical-conceptual framework with empirical-induct...

  7. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schull, W.J.; Texas Univ., Houston, TX

    1992-01-01

    Estimation of the risk of cancer following exposure to ionizing radiation remains largely empirical, and models used to adduce risk incorporate few, if any, of the advances in molecular biology of a past decade or so. These facts compromise the estimation risk where the epidemiological data are weakest, namely, at low doses and dose rates. Without a better understanding of the molecular and cellular events ionizing radiation initiates or promotes, it seems unlikely that this situation will improve. Nor will the situation improve without further attention to the identification and quantitative estimation of the effects of those host and environmental factors that enhance or attenuate risk. (author)

  8. Risks: diagnosing and eliminating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuriy A. Tikhomirov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective to develop conceptual theoretical and legal provisions and scientific recommendations on the identification analysis and elimination of risk. Methods universal dialectic method of cognition as well as scientific and private research methods based on it. Results the system was researched of risks diagnostics in the legal sphere and mechanism of influencing the quotrisk situationsquot and their consequences damage to the environment and harm to society. The concept of risk in the legal sphere was formulated the author39s classification of risks in the legal sphere is presented. The rules of analysis evaluation and prevention of risks and the model risk management framework are elaborated. Scientific novelty the mechanism for the identification analysis and elimination of risk has been developed and introduced into scientific circulation the author has proposed the classification and types of risks the reasons and the conditions promoting the risk occurrence. Practical significance the provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in the scientific lawmaking and lawenforcement activity as well as in the educational process of higher educational establishments. nbsp

  9. Air quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Martin L

    2008-01-01

    Rather than attempt to provide a comprehensive account of air quality risk assessment, as might be found in a textbook or manual, this article discusses some issues that are of current importance in the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe, with special emphasis on risk assessment in the context of policy formulation, and emerging scientific knowledge. There are two pollutants of particular concern and that both pose challenges for risk assessment and policy, and they are particulate matter (PM) and ozone. The article describes some issues for health risk assessment and finally some forward-looking suggestions for future approaches to air quality management.

  10. Risks of energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pop-Jordanov, J.; Pop-Jordanova, N.

    1989-09-01

    The paper is devoted to comparative health and environmental risks of different energy sources and their influence to public perception, social acceptability and decision-making. The technical heights of the risks, expressed in the number of fatalities of labor and public per unit energy output, from fossil, nuclear and renewable sources are analysed and compared. The complete energy cycle from mining to waste disposal, as well as the future trends, are taken into account. A comparison of the risks of different energy systems with the anticipated global and national energy shares by source is also presented. Furthermore, detailed studies of the non-technical dimensions of the energy risks are performed. Using a modified attitude-behaviour model, the cognitive structure underlying the positions towards different energy options is investigated. Estimating the diverse acting of the risk components, the consequent changes in the rank ordering of the energy sources are deduced. Finally, adding the psychological components nuclear reaches the highest place. In this respect, a unified multidimensional space for the representation of various technological risks is introduced. It affords a comparison of the risks not only by their technical height, but also by other characteristics (involuntary, fearfulness etc.). Finally, it was pointed out that in considering the risk characteristics and constraints, as well as the external fields, a system approach has to be used, taking into account the risks simultaneously with the benefits. 12 refs, 4 figs, 2 tabs

  11. Facing reality minimizes risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallagher, J.L.

    1992-01-01

    Companies that provide technology or project management involving a wise range of risks will increasingly find much more complex contractual relationships with their customers. This is due largely to the pressures exerted on those relationships by third parties. This paper explores the relationships between private contractors and their customers (frequently government agencies) and how risks affect those relationships. Perceptions of risk sometimes outweigh genuine risks, and the distinction between the two is often irrelevant. Media, site neighbors, adversaries, regulators, and national officials often tip the balance between reality and perception

  12. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  13. Motivation for risk sports

    OpenAIRE

    Hlava, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Title: Motivation for risk sports Objectives: The aim of our thesis is to find out primary and secondary motives of athletes for the operation of high-risk sports and coming back to it. We also want to find out what is the starter for doing risk sports. Other questions are why athletes keep doing it and how perceive the potential risk. Methods: In our study, we chose qualitative investigation method and semistructured interview with eight respondents. For the interview, we drew up a list of q...

  14. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Certification and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villanueva Fernandez, M.

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays more organizations are increasingly aware of the importance of properly managing the uncertainty of its activities and build competitive advantages through the identification, assessment and management of risks that they face. Risk management is also an aspect of great importance within the new version of ISO fact it is one of the most innovative and also the most laborious, because an appropriate risk management achieves expected results and customer satisfaction. In conclusion, risk management is a new field of business and can be considered a cross-cutting component for other relevant factors of organizational change management. (Author)

  16. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  17. Risks in our society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1985-01-01

    This chapter summarizes quantitative information on risks from a wide variety of sources and analyzes it in terms of life expectancy reduction (LER). The data indicate that the greatest common risk in terms of LER, next to remaining unmarried, is cigarette smoking. When all of the effects of energy production and use (e.g., burning coal, reactor accidents) are totalled, the resulting LER is only about 25 days. It is pointed out that the risks to the residents of the Harrisburg area from radiation caused by the Three Mile Island accident is hundreds of thousands of times smaller than their risk from being overweight

  18. Approaches to acceptable risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whipple, C.

    1997-01-01

    Several alternative approaches to address the question open-quotes How safe is safe enough?close quotes are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made

  19. Mortgage Default Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chauvet, Marcelle; Gabriel, Stuart; Lutz, Chandler

    2016-01-01

    We use Google search query data to develop a broad-based and real-time index of mortgage default risk. Unlike established indicators, our Mortgage Default Risk Index (MDRI) directly reflects households’concerns regarding their risk of mortgage default. The MDRI predicts housing returns, mortgage ...... delinquency indicators, and subprime credit default swaps. These results persist both in- and out-of-sample and at multiple data frequencies. Together, research findings suggest internet search queries yield valuable new insights into household mortgage default risk....

  20. Agricultural risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens; Oksen, Arne; Larsen, Torben U.

    2005-01-01

    A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed...... and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don’t apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory....

  1. Managing power risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rudd, D.C.

    1999-01-01

    Issues regarding the management of financial risks in the electric power market were discussed. The nature of the risk was defined for electricity producers, local utilities, traders/dealers, and brokers, each of which are exposed to different types of risks with the exception of credit risk, which is common to all. The main features of options, swaps, CFDs, bilateral financial contracts, futures contracts and the terms of the NYMEX electricity contract were outlined. Basic derivative strategies, the role of the broker, the elements of emissions trading, and trading strategies for consumers were also explained. 3 fig

  2. General Concepts Regarding Risk Appetite

    OpenAIRE

    Ana-Maria Dinu

    2014-01-01

    Risk appetite is a very complex system, therefore one of the most important element of a company’s enterprise risk management (ERM) is the risk appetite defining. A proper risk management means making good choices towards the risks a company faces in order to achieve its objectives and measures to mitigate those risks, not to avoid them. Therefore, the moment risk appetite is understood and clearly defined can become a powerful tool both for managing the occurred risks and business performanc...

  3. Low Dose Risk, Decisions, and Risk Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flynn, James

    2002-01-01

    The overall research objective was to establish new levels of information about how people, groups, and communities respond to low dose radiation exposure. This is basic research into the social psychology of individual, group, and community responses to radiation exposures. The results of this research are directed to improving risk communication and public participation in management of environmental problems resulting from low dose radiation

  4. Moral value, risk and risk tolerance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, L.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

    1993-07-01

    In this paper, risk tolerance with regard to nuclear waste is investigated in two empirical studies. Earlier published data, based on home interviews, purporting to show that a majority of Swedes now would accept a local nuclear waste repository could not be replicated in a mail survey. Interviewer influence and implicit prompting were suggested as explanations of previous results, and a follow-up using implicit and explicit prompts showed that uncertain people were more likely to acquiesce in response to an implicit prompt. The acceptance of a local repository (measured as intention to vote in its favor in a local referendum) could not be well explained by a cost-benefit approach, neither by a risk perception model. Concern about the local community was an important determinant, however, and so were moral aspects. When these aspects were included in a model, about 60 per cent of the variance of risk perception and risk acceptance was accounted for. In further analyses, NIMBY respondents were identified, defined here as people who rejected a local repository in spite of having acknowledged substantial utility of nuclear power. NIMBYs were, however, only in a small minority of all opposition to a local repository. Cultural theory gave only a very small marginal level of explanation of perceived waste risk and acceptance. Few respondents stated that they would accept a local repository if they were to be given financial compensation. This fact may be related to nuclear power issues being conceived as general, rather than personal matters. Those who saw it as politically important also conceived of it in general rather than personal terms. 62 refs

  5. Are doctors risk takers?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pikkel D

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Dvora Pikkel,1 Yael Sara Pikkel Igal,2 Adi Sharabi-Nov,3,4 Joseph Pikkel2,51Risk Management and Patient Safety Unit, Assuta Medical Center, Ramat Hahayal, Tel Aviv, 2Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan University, 3Research Wing, Ziv Medical Center, Safed, 4Tel-Hai Academic College, Upper Galilee, 5Department of Ophthalmology, Ziv Medical Center, Safed, Israel Objective: Risk taking affects human behavior in general and decisions in medicine in particular. We used game theory to assess physicians' risk-taking tendencies. Methods: Physicians were recruited to the study by advertisement. It was explained that they would receive a sum of money for correct prediction of the flipping of a coin. They could try to sell their opportunity to flip the coin for an amount of money they determined. The sum offered by the participants was considered an indicator of risk taking. A demographic questionnaire assessed age, sex, seniority, and area of specialization of the participants. A multivariate analysis assessed associations between risk-taking behavior and, seniority, and specialization. Results: Sixty-two physicians participated, 36 males and 26 females, seniority 1–34 years. Of a possible range of 0–10, the mean score for risk taking was 5.5 – just slightly more than indifference. Negative correlations were found between risk taking and seniority, and between risk taking and age (β=–0.45, P<0.001 for both. Surgeons and anesthesiologists showed greater risk taking than did other physicians (β=0.69, P<0.05; and females less than males, though the latter correlation was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Understanding the tendency of physicians to risk taking may elucidate their decision-making processes and contribute to understanding of causes of adverse events and to the education of physicians. Keywords: risk taking, game theory, seniority, surgeons, anesthesiologists

  6. Risks from nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liljenzin, J.O.; Rydberg, J.

    1996-11-01

    The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs

  7. Radiological risk comparison guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallinan, E.J.; Muhlestein, L.D.; Brown, L.F.; Yoder, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    An important aspect of DOE safety analyses is estimating potential accident risk. The estimates are used to: determine if additional controls are needed, identify Safety Class Items, and demonstrate adequate risk reduction. Thus, guidelines are needed to measure comparative risks. The Westinghouse M ampersand O Nuclear Facility Safety Committee and the Safety Envelope Working Group have developed radiological risk guidelines for comparing the risks from individual accident analyses. These guidelines were prepared under contract with the US Department of Energy. These guidelines are based on historical DOE guidelines and current requirements, and satisfy DOE and technical community proposals. for goals that demonstrate acceptable risk. The guidelines consist of a frequency versus consequence curve for credible accidents. Offsite and onsite guidelines are presented. The offsite risk acceptance guidelines are presented in Figure 1. The guidelines are nearly isorisk for anticipated events where impacts are chronic, and provide additional reduction for unlikely events where impacts may be acute and risk uncertainties may be significant. The guidelines are applied to individual release accident scenarios where a discrete frequency and consequence has been estimated. The guideline curves are not to be used for total risk assessments. Common cause events are taken into consideration only for an individual facility. Frequencies outside the guideline range are considered to be local site option (analyst judgement) as far as assessments of risk acceptance are concerned. If the curve is exceeded, then options include either a more detailed analysis or imposing additional preventive or mitigative features. Another presentation discusses implementation in detail. Additional work is needed to provide risk comparison guidelines for releases from multiple facilities and for toxic releases

  8. Risks from nuclear waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liljenzin, J.O.; Rydberg, J. [Radiochemistry Consultant Group, Vaestra Froelunda (Sweden)

    1996-11-01

    The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs.

  9. Risk and Derivative Price

    OpenAIRE

    Yusuke Osaki

    2007-01-01

    We consider an asset market traded three types of assets: the risk–free asset, the market portfolio and derivatives written on the market portfolio return. We determine a sufficient condition to guarantee that noise risk monotonically changes their derivatives. The condition is that Arrow–Pratt absolute risk aversion is decreasing and convex.

  10. Risk Aversion and Emotions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, Y.; Noussair, C.N.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: We consider the relationship between emotions and decision-making under risk. Specifically, we examine the emotional correlates of risk-averse decisions. In our experiment, individuals' facial expressions are monitored with facereading software, as they are presented with risky lotteries.

  11. Commodity risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilary Till

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.

  12. [Prevention of psychosocial risks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalle, Édouard; Trichard-Salembier, Alexandra; Sobaszek, Annie

    2018-02-01

    The theme of psychosocial risks remains in the workplace. It is therefore essential that all members of a company are made aware of the terminology and specific prevention actions in this field. Distinguishing between the manifestations of these risks and their causes and consequences helps to improve prevention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  13. Nanocosmetics: benefits and risks

    OpenAIRE

    Shokri, Javad

    2017-01-01

    Summary Various nanomaterials/nanoparticles (NPs) have been used for the development of cosmetic products - a field so-called nanocosmetic formulations. These advanced materials offer some benefits, while their utilization in the cosmetic formulations may be associated with some risks. The main aim of this editorial is to highlight the benefits and risks of the nanomaterials used in the cosmetic products.

  14. Perception of Product Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, A.R.H.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter provides several explanations for consumer risk perception. For frequently repeated behavior that is seemingly under their own control, consumers tend to be overly optimistic. This occurs in spite of the general tendency of consumers to be risk averse. Specific dimensions of different

  15. Risk and response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warner, F [Cremer and Warner (UK)

    1981-01-01

    A discussion of nuclear power and public acceptability can quite properly begin with a general consideration of the nature of response to risk. Response follows perception, and builds up from the individual through group response to the judgement of society expressed in governmental decisions on what is acceptable. Various types of risk, and public reaction, are discussed.

  16. Quantifying IT estimation risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.

    2009-01-01

    A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be

  17. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  18. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. Social Discounting under Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jia; Pei, Guanxiong; Ma, Qingguo

    2017-01-01

    As a measure of how prosocial behavior depends on social distance, social discounting is defined as the decrease in generosity between the decision maker and the recipient as the social distance increases. While risk is a ubiquitous part of modern life, there is limited research on the relationship between risk and prosocial behavior. In the present experiment, we empirically test whether risk has an influence on social discounting. We use the choice titration procedure to examine this effect. Our data show that independent of risk, participants are less eager to forego money and exhibit more selfishness toward a specific person when the social distance increases; these findings are reflected in the hyperbolic model. Interestingly, risk influences the shape of the social discounting function, which is reflected in the notable different discount rates. Individuals who make decisions under risk yield a smaller discount rate than those who make decisions without risk, i.e., under risk subjects reduce less their generosity as a function of the social distance. Furthermore, this distinct type of generosity occurs typically among individuals with 10-distance recipients but not with the closest- and furthest-social-distance recipients.

  20. Reanalysis of Zion risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, C.K.; Unwin, S.D.; Cazzoli, E.; Tingle, A.; Chun, M.

    1988-01-01

    As part of the NUREG-1150 effort, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has undertaken a risk analysis of Zion Unit 1 adopting the methodology developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining Program. Resulting of the preliminary version of that analysis are reported here. Completion plans for the Zion study are described also

  1. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  2. Measuring Normative Risk Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A.G. Alserda (Gosse)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThe results of eliciting risk preferences depend on the elicitation method. Different methods of measuring the same variable tend to produce different results. This raises the question whether normative risk preferences can be elicited at all. Using two types of manipulation, I assess

  3. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  4. Environments at risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, D.

    1989-01-01

    The book is a product of the Canadian story in environmental management. Since the late 1960s the Canadian governments have reflected the growing environmental conscience and legislated many environmental controls. It is shown what has been achieved worldwide in environmental assessment an risk prediction. The 12 chapters include working concepts and examples for assessments, reducing risk, and self-help. (DG)

  5. Realized Volatility Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); M. Scharth (Marcel)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from highfrequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive.

  6. Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); M. Scharth (Marcel)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized

  7. Risks of Leveraged Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Di Cesare (Antonio)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractLeveraged investments have become a fundamental feature of modern economies. The new financial products allow people to take greater-than-usual exposures to risk factors. This thesis analyzes several different aspects of the risks involved by some frequently used leveraged products:

  8. Risk in social science

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinn, Jens; Taylor-Gooby, Peter

    2006-01-01

    ... for control. Advances in social science improve understanding of how people perceive and prioritise risks, broaden awareness of the bearing of a range of other issues (trust, experience during the life course, democratic expectations) on people's capacity to manage risks, and facilitate exploration of the ways in which people communicate abo...

  9. ORGANIZATIONAL RISK COMMUNICATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ris communication tools in organizations differs in several ways from many of tools and techniques developed for public meetings. The traditional view of risk communication seeks to manage the public outrage ssociated with site-based issues. Organizational risk communication seek...

  10. Mind Your Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... ZIP 223KB Social Media Graphics Download .ZIP 293KB Social Media Graphics CAMPAIGN RESOURCES: SOCIAL MEDIA GRAPHICS Mind Your Risks® (MYR) ... ZIP 360KB Social Media Graphics Download .ZIP 433KB Social Media Graphics CAMPAIGN RESOURCES: SOCIAL MEDIA GRAPHICS Mind Your Risks® (MYR) ...

  11. Perspectives: Intellectual Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, James C.

    2013-01-01

    Ask a college administrator about students and risk management, and you're likely to get a quick and agitated speech about alcohol consumption and bad behavior or a meditation on mental health and campus safety. But in colleges and universities, we manage intellectual risk-taking too. Bring that up, and you'll probably get little out of that same…

  12. Risk Management and Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovmand, David

    2014-01-01

    Review of: Risk Management and Simulation / Aparna Gupta. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013, xxix + 491 pp., $99.95(H), ISBN: 978-1-4398-3594-4.......Review of: Risk Management and Simulation / Aparna Gupta. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013, xxix + 491 pp., $99.95(H), ISBN: 978-1-4398-3594-4....

  13. Taming agricultural risks

    OpenAIRE

    Oppedahl, David B.

    2014-01-01

    On November 19, 2013, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago held a conference to explore the key risks faced by agricultural producers and lenders, as well as the risk-management tools available to them, in today’s volatile environment.

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  15. Risks from radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doll, Richard

    1992-01-01

    The best estimate of risk to which everyone is exposed from natural radon in buildings is now obtained by extrapolation from observations on men exposed to radon in mines. The relationship between dose and effect derived by the US National Research Council implies that about 6% of the current life-time risk of developing the disease in the UK is attributable to radon, but for residents of some houses it will be much greater. This estimate is dependent on many assumptions, some of which are certainly wrong, and reliable estimates can be obtained only by direct observations on people living in different houses. It is possible that radon may also cause some risk of other cancers, notably leukaemia, but such risks, if real, are certainly small. Studies in progress should provide reliable estimates of all radon induced risks within a few years. (author)

  16. Insurance against nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dow, J.C.

    1976-01-01

    Virtually any type of nuclear risk is insurable in principle, providing, of course, that the necessary standards of safety and control are met. Some of the risks are of a relatively minor character and no more hazardous than a simple conventional risk. But insurers would not consider as a minor risk anything which involves the use of nuclear fuel or other nuclear materials which are in a critical state or capable of releasing dangerous levels of radioactivity. These would include nuclear reactors or, indeed, any type of assembly which can not be regarded as subcritical. Most insurers would also regard installations involved in the manufacturing, processing and enriching of nuclear fuel, and certainly those concerned with the reprocessing of irradiated fuel and plutonium extraction, as major risks. (HP) [de

  17. Risks in nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindackers, K.H.

    1982-01-01

    The German nuclear power plant risk assessment study has not contributed to a higher degree of acceptance of light-water reactors among the general public. One reason is the fact that its predictions are much too inaccurate, and the consequences from severe accidents, regardless of their possibly extremely small likelihood, speak for themselves. The work still to be done in Phase B of the risk analysis will only be useful, if the safety factors in risk assessments can be drastically increased. The results of the risk analysis cannot be used in legislation or the administration of justice, because they are too incomplete and inaccurate. Scientific findings in risk analysis show that new designs and new components complicate objective judgement of changes in reactor safety engineering considerably. Every change in the required precautionary safety measures must be carefully considered, and if need be tested under the appropriate conditions. (orig./HSCH) [de

  18. EMF and risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widemann, P.M.; Schuetz, H.

    1995-01-01

    There has lately been a greater responsivement in the media as well as the general public to the risk potential of high-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF). If the discussion continues to gain momentum, this could have grave consequences for companies offering the products or services under attack. The working group Man, Environment, Technology (MUT) at Juelich Research Centre has examined the question of how EMF risks are valuated by the public. The study centered on the following questions: How are EMF risk potentials perceived by the public and what factors influence the public discussion? What future course might the discussion on risks take and what critical events and conditions deserve particular attention? The authors present and discuss the results of this first German study on product-inherent risks. (orig.) [de

  19. Risk capital allocation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Smilgins, Aleksandrs

    Risk capital allocation problems have been widely discussed in the academic literature. We consider a company with multiple subunits having individual portfolios. Hence, when portfolios of subunits are merged, a diversification benefit arises: the risk of the company as a whole is smaller than...... the sum of the risks of the individual sub-units. The question is how to allocate the risk capital of the company among the subunits in a fair way. In this paper we propose to use the Lorenz set as an allocation method. We show that the Lorenz set is operational and coherent. Moreover, we propose a set...... of new axioms related directly to the problem of risk capital allocation and show that the Lorenz set satisfies these new axioms in contrast to other well-known coherent methods. Finally, we discuss how to deal with non-uniqueness of the Lorenz set....

  20. Fear, anger, and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, J S; Keltner, D

    2001-07-01

    Drawing on an appraisal-tendency framework (J. S. Lerner & D. Keltner, 2000), the authors predicted and found that fear and anger have opposite effects on risk perception. Whereas fearful people expressed pessimistic risk estimates and risk-averse choices, angry people expressed optimistic risk estimates and risk-seeking choices. These opposing patterns emerged for naturally occurring and experimentally induced fear and anger. Moreover, estimates of angry people more closely resembled those of happy people than those of fearful people. Consistent with predictions, appraisal tendencies accounted for these effects: Appraisals of certainty and control moderated and (in the case of control) mediated the emotion effects. As a complement to studies that link affective valence to judgment outcomes, the present studies highlight multiple benefits of studying specific emotions.

  1. Mapping of nitrogen risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Carstensen, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    risk mapping part of the tool, we combined a modelled root zone N leaching with a catchment-specific N reduction factor which in combination determines the N load to the marine recipient. N leaching was calculated using detailed information of agricultural management from national databases as well...... will be more effective if they are implemented in N loss hot spots or risk areas. Additionally, the highly variable N reduction in groundwater and surface waters needs to be taken into account as this strongly influences the resulting effect of mitigation measures. The objectives of this study were to develop...... and apply an N risk tool to the entire agricultural land area in Denmark. The purpose of the tool is to identify high risk areas, i.e. areas which contribute disproportionately much to diffuse N losses to the marine recipient, and to suggest cost-effective measures to reduce losses from risk areas. In the N...

  2. WHO risk communication seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The International EMF project organised by the WHO is now entering its third year. In addition to providing authoritative reviews of the scientific literature on the health effects of exposure to electric and magnetic fields, a key objective of the five year programme is to provide information on the perception, communication and management of risk, and how this relates to electric and magnetic fields. To this end, an International seminar on: Risk perception, risk communication and its application to EMF exposure, was held in Vienna on 22-23 October last year, bringing togehter an array of speakers from around the world to talk about perceptions of risk, how best to communicate risks to the public and present some practical examples. (author)

  3. Managing Risk and Opportunity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero

    outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment....... The underlying logic is built on the principles of financial economics where benefits derive from reducing bankruptcy costs and increasing future cash inflows. This provides a stringent framework for analyzing the effect of different risk management actions and behaviors in effective risk-taking organizations...

  4. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  5. LOW DOSE RISK, DECISIONS, and RISK COMMUNICATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flynn, James

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this project is to conduct basic research on how people receive, evaluate, and form positions on scientific information and its relationship to low-dose radiation exposure. There are three major areas of study in our research program. First is the development of theories, frameworks and concepts essential to guiding data collection and analysis. The second area is a program of experimental studies on risk perception, evaluation of science information, and the structure of individual positions regarding low-dose exposures. Third is the community-level studies to examine and record how the social conditions, under which science communications take place, influence the development of attitudes and opinions about: low-dose exposures, the available management options, control of radiation risks, and preferences for program and policy goals

  6. Communication of Audit Risk to Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alderman, C. Wayne; Thompson, James H.

    1986-01-01

    This article focuses on audit risk by examining it in terms of its components: inherent risk, control risk, and detection risk. Discusses applying audit risk, a definition of audit risk, and components of audit risk. (CT)

  7. Internal Audit and Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Constantin Nicolae Vasile; Alexandru Georgiana

    2011-01-01

    Internal audit and risk management have the same goal: the control of risk. There are various roles for the internal audit in respect of risk management. The main limitations of internal audit in respect of risk management regards assuming risk management tasks. One of the main issues regarding risk management is to make sure that the key risks are taken into consideration and that the management and the board of the organization take action as needed. Internal audit could give advice to mana...

  8. Society's general exposure to risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lidstone, R.F.

    1981-10-01

    Canadian and world experience with accidents and disease is reviewed in order to identify risk information that might extend the societal perspective on health risk beyond daily concerns. The level of exposure to catastrophic risks is compared to that associated with commonly experienced risks. An examination of current and historical levels of Canadian mortality risk is included. The association between mortality risk and Canadian industrial activity is also examined. Some prospects for utilizing these risk benchmarks are then discussed

  9. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-03-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  10. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  11. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-04-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  12. The risks of technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.; Werner, W.; Herttrich, M.

    1987-01-01

    The book presents a complete survey of the methods and procedures applied for risk assessment, referring in particular to the field of nuclear engineering, but dealing also with risk assessment in the sector of the chemical industry and of the power industry, comparing the risks of various technologies for energy production. The material presented shows that a risk assessment study requires information and knowledge from a great variety of subject fields, evaluating and merging the information collected into a complete survey being the main task of risk assessment. It also becomes clear that despite the strong commitment to research in this field, there still remain unresolved problems and phenomena, so that risk assessment bears a certain degree of uncertainty. The results and the mutual connections are represented in words only, so that the reader can do without mathematical knowledge. Many studies and their results are presented, and their explanation in the overall framework allows insight into the connections and an evaluation of usefulness. The status report on risk assessment prepared in August 1984 by the GRS (Society for Reactor Safety) on behalf of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, has been taken as a basis for this book which consists of many individual contributions. (orig./HP) With 45 figs [de

  13. Risk perception in planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roh, S K

    1987-01-01

    The general public's perception of the risks involved with hazardous industries is increasing, especially in countries that high environmental amenity characteristics. This increased public awareness of risk may be an important factor in the future of countries who produce a large quantity of petroleum and chemical products. However, existing decision-making processes for determining safety controls do not take sufficient account of the community perception of risk. Identification of perceived risk levels could contribute to the determination of safe land-use planning policies and practices. The objective of land-use planning for hazardous industries is to reduce the gap between the calculated or technical assessment of risk and the risk as perceived by the community. This also facilitates a balanced approach in the decision making process between meeting industry requirements and community concerns. The comprehensive analysis presented in this study, based on a questionnaire given to residents in each of the three study areas (Australia, Japan and Korea), focused on identifying and measuring the respondent's understanding of the risk posed by nearby hazardous industrial developments.

  14. Introduction: Learning about Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens O. Zinn

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The special issue "Learning about Risk" draws on the launch conference of the ESRC "Social Contexts and Responses to Risk" network (SCARR held at 28th – 29th January 2005 in Canterbury. The SCARR network is an interdisciplinary network on risk which examines perceptions of and responses to risk in a range of areas, including sexual behaviour and partnering choices, the mass media, faith and ethnicity, pensions and financial planning, industrial pollution, crime, transport, energy policy and environmental hazards. The network's launch conference reflected the interdisciplinary character of risk research including a range of different methods and approaches to risk, directed at diverse objects of interest. The idea of the special issue is to link together this diversity and interdisciplinarity in risk research, and to encourage perspectives that look beyond the boundaries of single disciplines and methodological approaches. The papers in this publication demonstrate the value of insights from different disciplinary backgrounds in this area and point to the opportunities and challenges in the work that remains to be done in drawing these several perspectives more closely together. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0601246

  15. 77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

  16. Contralateral breast cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unnithan, Jaya; Macklis, Roger M.

    2001-01-01

    The use of breast-conserving treatment approaches for breast cancer has now become a standard option for early stage disease. Numerous randomized studies have shown medical equivalence when mastectomy is compared to lumpectomy followed by radiotherapy for the local management of this common problem. With an increased emphasis on patient involvement in the therapeutic decision making process, it is important to identify and quantify any unforeseen risks of the conservation approach. One concern that has been raised is the question of radiation- related contralateral breast cancer after breast radiotherapy. Although most studies do not show statistically significant evidence that patients treated with breast radiotherapy are at increased risk of developing contralateral breast cancer when compared to control groups treated with mastectomy alone, there are clear data showing the amount of scattered radiation absorbed by the contralateral breast during a routine course of breast radiotherapy is considerable (several Gy) and is therefore within the range where one might be concerned about radiogenic contralateral tumors. While radiation related risks of contralateral breast cancer appear to be small enough to be statistically insignificant for the majority of patients, there may exist a smaller subset which, for genetic or environmental reasons, is at special risk for scatter related second tumors. If such a group could be predicted, it would seem appropriate to offer either special counselling or special prevention procedures aimed at mitigating this second tumor risk. The use of genetic testing, detailed analysis of breast cancer family history, and the identification of patients who acquired their first breast cancer at a very early age may all be candidate screening procedures useful in identifying such at- risk groups. Since some risk mitigation strategies are convenient and easy to utilize, it makes sense to follow the classic 'ALARA' (as low as reasonably

  17. UPDATING UNDER RISK CONDITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VĂDUVA CECILIA ELENA

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The foundation for future firm development is investment. Agents have a risk aversion requiring higher returns as the risks associated with the project will be greater. The investment decision determines the market firm's affirmation, increasing the market share, dominating the market. Making an investment at a certain point will determine certain cash flows throughout the life of the project, and a residual value can be obtained when it is taken out of service. The flows and payments for the investment project can be more easily tracked if we are proposing a constant update rate. We will be able to analyze, based on various factors, three techniques for determining the discount rate for investment projects: the opportunity cost, the risk-free rate, and a series of risk premiums, the weighted average cost of capital. People without financial training make value judgments for investment projects based on other market opportunities, comparing the returns that any investment offers to other pay options. An investor has a sum of money he wants to make - if he does not invest in a project, he will invest in another, that will bring him a certain amount of money, choosing the most advantageous project by comparison. All projects are characterized by identical risks, and the agents are considered indifferent to the risks. The answer given by financial theory and practice to the disadvantage of rates in the opportunity cost category is the discount rate calculated as a sum of the risk-free rate and a risk premium, defining the risk as a factor whose action may cause a possible decrease in cash of the available flows. Higher objectivity is presented by the opportunity cost update rates of update because it refers to known variables but cannot be perfectly matched to the performance of the investment process.

  18. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  19. Radiogenic risks from hysterosalpingography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perisinakis, Kostas; Damilakis, John; Theocharopoulos, Nicholas; Grammatikakis, John; Gourtsoyiannis, Nicholas

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine ovarian dose, effective dose and associated radiogenic risks from hysterosalpingography (HSG), and to provide data for the estimation of radiogenic risks related to HSG studies performed in any laboratory. The fluoroscopy time, number of radiographs taken and entrance surface dose were measured in a series of 78 consecutive patients undergoing HSG as part of their infertility work-up. Organ-dose values per radiograph and per minute of fluoroscopy were separately determined using an anthropomorphic phantom and thermoluminescence dosimetry. The radiogenic risk for deleterious effects on a possible future embryo and the radiogenic risk for cancer induction on the patient undergoing HSG were estimated. The average HSG procedure in our laboratory involves a mean fluoroscopic time of 0.3 min and a mean number of radiographs of 3.2. The dose to female gonads from an average HSG procedure was 2.7 mGy and the patient effective dose was 1.2 mSv. The risk for radiogenic anomalies in a future embryo of the woman undergoing an average HSG procedure and the risk for radiogenic fatal cancer induction in the exposed woman were estimated to be less than 10 -3 of the correspondent nominal risks. Radiation risks from a typical HSG are low, but they may be elevated if fluoroscopic and/or radiographic exposures are prolonged for any reason. Present data allow the estimation of radiogenic risks associated with HSG procedures performed in other laboratories with use of different equipment, screening time and number of radiographs taken. (orig.)

  20. Risk in pediatric anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Neil; Waterhouse, Peter

    2011-08-01

    Risk in pediatric anesthesia can be conveniently classified as minor or major. Major morbidity includes cardiac arrest, brain damage and death. Minor morbidity can be assessed by clinical audits with small patient samples. Major morbidity is rare. It is best assessed by very large clinical studies and by review of closed malpractice claims. Both minor and major morbidity occur most commonly in infants and children under three, especially those with severe co-morbidities. Knowledge of risk profiles in pediatric anesthesia is a starting point for the reduction of risk. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  2. Managing Risk and Opportunity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero

    outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment...

  3. PREVENTION OF COMPANY RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUCI U GHEORGHE

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A company’s manager has to create and maintain a healthy internal control system. An efficient internal control system implies the implementation in the company of risk management. Each company, but also each individual, who tries to attain certain objectives, establishes the activities which lead to the achievement of goals and, at the same time, tries to identify as many “threats” as possible, in order to take the necessary measures to eliminate them. Thus, even if one is not familiar with the concepts of risk and risk management, one acts, consciously or not, for that purpose.

  4. Credit Risk Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, David

    Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...... and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand...

  5. Social identities and risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders; Jensen, Mette; Kaltoft, Pernille

    2008-01-01

    Expert-based environmental and health risk regulation is widely believed to suffer from a lack of public understanding and legitimacy. On controversial issues such as genetically modified organisms and food-related chemicals, a "lay-expert discrepancy" in the assessment of risks is clearly visible...... of social identities. On the basis of qualitative interviews with citizens and experts, respectively, we focus on the multiple ways in which identities come to be employed in actors' risk accounts. Empirically, we identify salient characteristics of "typical" imagined experts and lay-people, while arguing...

  6. riskRegression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ozenne, Brice; Sørensen, Anne Lyngholm; Scheike, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    In the presence of competing risks a prediction of the time-dynamic absolute risk of an event can be based on cause-specific Cox regression models for the event and the competing risks (Benichou and Gail, 1990). We present computationally fast and memory optimized C++ functions with an R interface......-product we obtain fast access to the baseline hazards (compared to survival::basehaz()) and predictions of survival probabilities, their confidence intervals and confidence bands. Confidence intervals and confidence bands are based on point-wise asymptotic expansions of the corresponding statistical...

  7. Some thoughts about risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennekens, J.H.

    1986-05-01

    The author discusses how the concept of risk is perceived differently by the scientist and the man in the street, and mentions the problems that this can sometimes pose for the regulator. He also gives examples of inconsistencies and contradictions in various areas of risk management. He concludes by noting that so-called accidents usually do not occur by chance, but that system or component failures are always due to some form of human error. The objective of risk management is to ensure, by a process of rigorous analysis, that both the probability and consequences of such failures are minimized

  8. Alternative Perspectives on Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davison, Jeannie; Orasanu, J.; Connors, Mary M. (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    The goal of the commercial air transport system is to provide air transportation to the flying public at an acceptable cost with minimal risk. in an ideal situation these three goals would support each other. In fact, it is sometimes the case that the goals conflict: getting passengers to their destinations on time may conflict with fixing a minor mechanical malfunction that may or may not impact safety; flying a route that will avoid turbulence, thereby providing passengers with a more comfortable ride, may consume more fuel; managing traffic density may mean aircraft are delayed or must use an approach that will result in a long taxi to their gates, costing time and fuel. Various players in the system--pilots, dispatchers, controllers, as well as managers in the airline carriers and traffic management system--make decisions every day that involve trade-offs of benefits and costs. The prospect of revisions in the air traffic management system, with shifts in responsibilities from controllers to users, including airline operations center personnel and pilots, means that individuals may be performing either new jobs or old jobs under new guidance. It will be essential to know how the various players (a) perceive the risks and benefits associated with the decisions they will make under the old and new control structures, and (b) how much risk they are willing to accept in making decisions. Risk is here defined as the probability and magnitude of negative events (after Slovic, 1987). Of primary interest are risks associated with traffic, weather, and operational factors such as schedule, fuel consumption, and passenger service. Previous research has documented differences between groups in perceptions of risks associated with both everyday and aviation related situations. Risk perception varies as a function of familiarity with the situation, degree to which one is potentially affected by the risk, the level of control one has over the situation, and one's level of

  9. Governmental management of chemical risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, R.

    1990-01-01

    This book is organized under the following headings: risk management in the government context; legal and regulatory decrees and directives for managing chemical risk; incentive-based approaches for regulating risk; risk management in the federal system; and traditional approaches and new initiatives for managing chemical risk

  10. Value at Risk models for Energy Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Novák, Martin

    2010-01-01

    The main focus of this thesis lies on description of Risk Management in context of Energy Trading. The paper will predominantly discuss Value at Risk and its modifications as a main overall indicator of Energy Risk.

  11. [Chemical risk in farming].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moretto, Angelo

    2013-01-01

    The most important chemical risks in agriculture are plant protection products. Exposure evaluation in agriculture is not an easy task and cannot be carried out with the tools and methodologies of industrial exposures. However, toxicological studies on plant protection products, that are compulsory, provide a lot of useful information for actual risk assessment. Exposure evaluation can be carried out on the basis of exposure models and on semiquantitative measures based on the observation of the activity as it is carried our by the farmer. It is therefore possible to develop risk profiles that can guide exposure evaluation and health surveillance. Concentrated animal feeding operations are associated with several chemical risks including disinfectants, antibiotics, and gases such as ammonia and hydrogen sulfide, in addition to organic dusts and endotoxins.

  12. Nuclear insurance fire risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dressler, E.G.

    2001-01-01

    Nuclear facilities operate under the constant risk that radioactive materials could be accidentally released off-site and cause injuries to people or damages to the property of others. Management of this nuclear risk, therefore, is very important to nuclear operators, financial stakeholders and the general public. Operators of these facilities normally retain a portion of this risk and transfer the remainder to others through an insurance mechanism. Since the nuclear loss exposure could be very high, insurers usually assess their risk first-hand by sending insurance engineers to conduct a nuclear insurance inspection. Because a serious fire can greatly increase the probability of an off-site release of radiation, fire safety should be included in the nuclear insurance inspection. This paper reviews essential elements of a facility's fire safety program as a key factor in underwriting nuclear third-party liability insurance. (author)

  13. Radiation risks in pregnancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mossman, K.L.; Hill, L.T.

    1982-01-01

    A major contraindication of radiodiagnostic procedures is pregnancy. Approximately 1% of all pregnant women are given abdominal x-rays during the first trimester of pregnancy. Evaluation of radiation exposure should involve consideration of the types of examinations performed and when performed, as well as radiation dose and risk estimation. This information is then weighed against other possible risks of the pregnancy as well as personal factors. In the authors' experiences, radiation exposures usually result in doses to the embryo of less than 5 cGy (rad); the resulting radiation risks are usually small compared with other risks of pregnancy. Procedures to minimize diagnostic x-ray exposure of the fetus are also discussed

  14. Risk and fear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lerch, I [New York Univ., NY (USA). Medical Center

    1980-01-03

    It is shown that perception of risk often has a greater impact on our actions than does objective analysis of probabilities and that this factor dominates the whole tenor of the debate over nuclear power.

  15. Risk factors for neoplasms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

    1991-06-01

    A broad survey is given of risk factors for neoplasms. The main carcinogenic substances (including also ionizing radiation and air pollution) are listed, and are correlated with the risk factors for various cancers most frequently explained and discussed in the literature. The study is intended to serve as a basis for a general assessment of the incidence of neoplasms in children, and of cancer mortality in the entire population of Bavaria in the years 1983-1989, or 1979-1988, respectively, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment-related health survey. The study therefore takes into account not only ionizing radiation as a main risk factor, but also other risk factors detectable within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations and their effects, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or the social status. (orig./MG) [de

  16. Managing Multiple Risk Factors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lollis, Charlie

    1998-01-01

    ...) contribute to the racial differences in cardiovascular risk and events among women. High levels of socioeconomic stress, higher dietary fat intake and sedentary lifestyle are more prevalent among black than white women...

  17. The risk perception gap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frech, E.

    1995-01-01

    Most members of the public view the risks of nuclear power as uniquely hazardous. A survey in 1993 found that Canadians rank nuclear waste as the eleventh highest risk to their health. The trouble is that the public are not simply misinformed; rather, they view risk as something different from the product of probability of occurrence of an event multiplied by the measure of its harmful consequences. Among the 30 to 40 factors that influence public perception of risk, or acceptance of technology, are some that the scientific and technical community has hitherto failed to heed. Many of these factors can in fact be accommodated in the design, development and public presentation of nuclear projects. Such an accommodation of the public's views would involve dealing with factors like voluntariness, controllability, reversibility, equity and fairness, benefits, and trust in institutions. 9 refs

  18. Cultural differences in risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Do-Yeong Kim

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We compared South Koreans with Australians in order to characterize cultural differences in attitudes and choices regarding risk, at both the individual and group levels. Our results showed that Australians, when assessed individually, consistently self-reported higher preference for risk than South Koreans, regardless of gender. The data revealed that South Koreans, regardless of gender composition, were willing to take greater risks when making decisions in group decision-making situations than when they were alone. This is a different pattern from that seen in the Australian sample, in which a risky shift was noted only among males. This difference was attributed to the influence of various cultural orientations (independent vs. interdependent relationship styles. This study also provides a discussion of the implications of these results in terms of cultural differences in attitudes and decisions regarding risk.

  19. Fissile material proliferation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    The proliferation risk of a facility depends on the material attractiveness, level of safeguards, and physical protection applied to the material in conjunction with an assessment of the impact of the socioeconomic circumstances and threat environment. Proliferation risk is a complementary extension of proliferation resistance. The authors believe a better determination of nuclear proliferation can be achieved by establishing the proliferation risk for facilities that contain nuclear material. Developing a method that incorporates the socioeconomic circumstances and threat environment inherent to each country enables a global proliferation assessment. To effectively reduce the nuclear danger, a broadly based set of criteria is needed that provides the capability to relatively assess a wide range of nuclear related sites and facilities in different countries and still ensure a global decrease in proliferation risk for fissile material (plutonium and highly enriched uranium)

  20. Exchange Risk Management Policy

    CERN Document Server

    2005-01-01

    At the Finance Committee of March 2005, following a comment by the CERN Audit Committee, the Chairman invited the Management to prepare a document on exchange risk management policy. The Finance Committee is invited to take note of this document.

  1. Risks of mammograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartz, H.M.; Reichling, B.A.

    1977-01-01

    In summary, the following practical guidelines for mammography are offered: 1. Any woman, regardless of age, with signs or symptoms that indicate breast cancer should have a mammogram. 2. A woman who has a high risk for breast cancer (e.g., strong family history, no pregnancy before 30 years of age, or a previous breast cancer) should receive periodic screening examinations, including mammography. 3. Periodic screening for asymptomatic women over the age of 50 is indicated. 4. The value of periodic screening for asymptomatic women who are not considered to be at high risk and are under the age of 50 years is not established. Such screening should be carried out only when useful data can be collected on the benefits and risks of this procedure. 5. For any individual woman, the risk of inducing breast cancer by mammography is very low. 6. Mammograms should be made only with modern equipment and techniques designed to provide optimum information with minimal dose

  2. Obesity and Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Common Cancer Types Recurrent Cancer Common Cancer Types Bladder Cancer Breast Cancer Colorectal Cancer Kidney (Renal Cell) Cancer ... hormone therapy and for tumors that express hormone receptors . Obesity is also a risk factor for breast ...

  3. Econometrics of risk

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Suriya, Komsan

    2015-01-01

    This edited book contains several state-of-the-art papers devoted to econometrics of risk. Some papers provide theoretical analysis of the corresponding mathematical, statistical, computational, and economical models. Other papers describe applications of the novel risk-related econometric techniques to real-life economic situations. The book presents new methods developed just recently, in particular, methods using non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distributions, methods using non-Gaussian copulas to properly take into account dependence between different quantities, methods taking into account imprecise ("fuzzy") expert knowledge, and many other innovative techniques. This versatile volume helps practitioners to learn how to apply new techniques of econometrics of risk, and researchers to further improve the existing models and to come up with new ideas on how to best take into account economic risks.

  4. Histoplasmosis Risk and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Huprikar S, Azie N, Quan SP, Meier-Kriesche HU, Horn DL. Clinical characteristics and outcomes in 303 HIV- ... Slama TG, Norton JA, Kohler RB, Eitzen HE, French ML, et al. Risk factors for disseminated or ...

  5. Risks of underage drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... a higher risk of depression, anxiety, and low self-esteem. Drinking during puberty can also change hormones in ... the first to achieve this important distinction for online health information and services. Learn more about A. ...

  6. Risk Management Plan Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    RMP implements Section 112(r) of the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments, and requires facilities that use extremely hazardous substances to develop a Risk Management Plan and revise/resubmit every five years. Find guidance, factsheets, training, and assistance.

  7. Management of radiation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1996-01-01

    The need to control the risk from ionizing radiation can be tracked back to the eve of the twentieth century. However, as knowledge improved and practices expanded, the approaches to this control have evolved. No longer is the mere respect of some forms of exposure limits or safety related standards sufficient. Rather, it is widely admitted that there is a need for managing radiation risk, both by balancing the advantages and disadvantages of enhancing protection and by setting up a proper organization that allows handling of the risk. This paper describes the multiple aspects of radiation risk management and points out the main related issues. It critically analyzes ALARA and ICRP recommendations. 74 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs

  8. Resourceful or At Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højen-Sørensen, Anna-Katharina

    Introduction: Social categories are used to determine which individuals are at an increased risk of unfavorable outcomes and they are a vital tool for the development of targeted interventions. This presentation takes a critical look at the Resourceful and At Risk categories, that are often emplo...... employed in research and social work, and investigate the possible consequences of the preconceptions born out of these categories....

  9. Managing Chemical & Material Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Certification Program Acquisition, Technology and Logistics 9 DoD Hexavalent Chromium Risk Reduction Non- Chrome Primer II EXAVAJ ENT CHROM lrUMI...Royal Demolition eXplosive (RDX) • Cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine  Hexavalent Chromium (Cr6+) Naphthalene …pending downgrade to watch list Beryllium...T1me (secondo) 700 Acquisition, Technology and Logistics 10 Hexavalent Chromium Risk Management Actions • DoD minimization policy signed April

  10. Risk, ambiguity, and diversification

    OpenAIRE

    Sautua, Santiago-Ignacio

    2016-01-01

    Attitudes toward risk influence the decision to diversify among uncertain options. Yet, because in most situations the options are ambiguous, attitudes toward ambiguity may also play an important role. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect of ambiguity on the decision to diversify. I find that diversification is more prevalent and more persistent under ambiguity than under risk. Moreover, excess diversification under ambiguity is driven by participants who stick with a s...

  11. Risk communication: Nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, H.P.

    1991-01-01

    The emphasis is put on communication processes, here in particular with regard to nuclear energy. Not so much dealt with are questions concerning political regulation, the constellation of power between those becoming active and risk perception by the population. Presented are individual arguments, political positions and decision-making processes. Dealt with in particular are safety philosophies, risk debates, and attempts to 'channel' all sides to the subject of nuclear energy. (DG) [de

  12. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, P.B.

    1981-11-01

    This report outlines the major publications between 1976 and 1981 that have contributed to the evolution of the way in which radiation risks (cancer and hereditary birth defects) are assessed. The publications include the latest findings of the UNSCEAR, BEIR and ICRP committees, epidemiological studies at low doses and new assessments of the doses received by the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report is not a detailed critique of those publications, but it highlights the impact of their findings on risk assessment

  13. Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ávalos, Eloy

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

  14. Discounting and Expropriation Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Giovanni Immordino; Mario Padula

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the association between discounting and risk of expropriation and provides the theoretical conditions that make a positive association consistent with rationality. Moreover, using a national representative sample and a representative sample of the 50+ in eleven European countries, we show that discounting increases with expropriation risk. The two surveys give direct measures of discount rate as well as measures derived from households consumption decisions and provide...

  15. Risk management with options and futures under liquidity risk

    OpenAIRE

    Adam-Müller, A F A; Panaretou, A

    2009-01-01

    Futures hedging creates liquidity risk through marking to market. Liquidity risk matters if interim losses on a futures position have to be financed at a markup over the risk-free rate. This study analyzes the optimal risk management and production decisions of a firm facing joint price and liquidity risk. It provides a rationale for the use of options on futures in imperfect capital markets. If liquidity risk materializes, the firm sells options on futures in order to partly cover this liqui...

  16. Human milk pasteurization: benefits and risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Deborah L; Ewaschuk, Julia B; Unger, Sharon

    2015-05-01

    Recent findings substantiate that the optimal method of nourishing preterm, very low birth weight infants (VLBW, born pasteurized donor milk. The availability of donor milk for VLBW infants during initial hospitalization continues to increase with the launch of new milk banks in North America. The majority of North American neonatal ICUs now have written policies governing the provision of donor milk. The purpose of this review is to summarize recent evidence regarding the risks and benefits of pasteurization of human milk and outcomes associated with its provision to VLBW preterm infants. Studies investigating the impact of collection, storage and pasteurization on the bacteriostatic, immunologic and nutritional aspects of human milk continue to be published, generally revealing a partial, but not complete reduction in bioactivity. Risk of contamination of pasteurized donor human milk with pathogenic agents is mitigated through pasteurization. New pasteurization methods aiming to maintain the safety of pooled human milk while better preserving bioactivity are under investigation. Provision of a human milk-derived diet to preterm VLBW infants is associated with improved outcomes.

  17. Radiation risks in perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1987-01-01

    The problem of risk assessment is greater at the low effective dose rates now observed in the majority of all forms of exposure, usually of less than 3 mSv per year from natural causes, from occupational exposure, and from exposure of 'critical groups' of the general public. For most populations there are particular problems also in epidemiological studies at low dose, in addition to those due to the very large numbers of person-years that need to be studied and the long latencies of most radiation effects. Adequate estimates can, however, now be made of the carcinogenic risk of exposure at higher dose of various organs selectively and of the whole body uniformly, and of modes of inference to the risk at lower dose. Estimates can also be made of the risks of inducing major types of inheritable and developmental abnormality. An essential step in viewing the sum of all such radiation risks in the perspective of other occupational and public risks must now be to develop an informed consensus on the relative weight that is regarded as attaching to hazards of different kind and severity. (author)

  18. Regulatory risk coherence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Remick, F.J.

    1992-01-01

    As one of the most progressive users of risk assessment in decision making, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is in a position to play an important role in influencing the development of standard government wide policies for the application of risk assessment in decision making. The NRC, with the support of the nuclear industry, should use the opportunity provided by its experience with risk assessment to actively encourage the adoption of standard national and international health-based safety goals and at the same time accelerate its own efforts to implement the safety goals it has already developed for itself. There are signs of increased recognition of the need for consistency and coherence in the application of risk assessment in government decision making. The NRC and the nuclear industry have recently taken a great step toward establishing a consistant and coherent risk assessment-based culture in the US nuclear industry. As a result of Generic Letter 88-20, which asks each commercial nuclear power plant licensee to perform an individual plant examination by September 1992, for the first time a risk assessment characterizing initiating events in each plant will exist

  19. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  20. Radiation and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobi, W.

    1983-01-01

    From the beginnings of the peaceful utilization of nuclear energy, the principles of prevention and optimization have greatly limited the emission of radioactive substances. In this way, the radiation exposure associated with emissions from nuclear power plants during normal operation has been kept low compared with natural radiation exposure and its variance. This also applies to the local public in the vicinities of such plants. The present health hazard to the public arising from ionizing radiation is only a small fraction of the man-made risk to which the public is exposed in this country. This is also due to the fact that radiation protection employs the principle of prevention, which has been laid down in legal regulations. In this respect, the concepts and criteria developed in radiation protection for evaluation, limitation and optimization may be useful examples to other areas of safety at work and environmental protection. The acceptance of nuclear power is decisively influenced by the remaining residual risk of accidents. Extremely careful inspection and supervision of the technical safety of such plants is indispensable to prevent major accidents. The German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants has made an important contribution to this end. It is being continued. However, risk research must always be accompanied by risk comparison to allow numerical risk data to be evaluated properly and important features to be distinguished from unimportant ones. (orig.) [de

  1. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  2. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  3. RISK TRANSFER AND RISK REDUCTION OF ATHLETES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko Vojinović

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the indispensable factors in sports is insurance. The accidents influence not only the health, permanently or temporarily,they also influence the financial resources, more or less, depending on the recovery time of the injuries. Insurer in this case pay the agreed amount (the agreed compensation to the insured. Each participant in the sporting competition should have personal insurance. The reasons for the theme are to find ways to explain how athletes can reduce the risks they are exposed to in doing their activities, training and competition, and other moments in life. Every man has a need for certainty in the future, regardless of the category in which he works, the values and skills available. The only difference is in absolute values and everyone has his own need. Athletes ,those from less successful to the most successful ones, whose transfers or fees are in millions, all think about the future and of course how to save and invest funds that are earned. They can find a solution in insurance, as an institution that takes over their risks, taking care of the invested money and benefits of those stakes. When there is uncertainty in our lives we seek security and see it as a basic need. Insurers claim that insurance offers just that - the security of property and life

  4. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  5. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  6. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  7. A Taxonomy of Operational Risks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gallagher, Brian P; Case, Pamela J; Creel, Rita C; Kushner, Susan; Williams, Ray C

    2005-01-01

    ... identification of risks associated with the development of a software-dependent project. Since then, this method also has been used in the Software Risk Evaluation process to identify risks associated with the development of software-intensive systems...

  8. Risks for Heart Disease & Stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Prevent Risks for Heart Disease & Stroke Risks for Heart Disease & Stroke About 1.5 million heart attacks and ... can’t change some of your risks for heart disease and stroke, but you can manage many of ...

  9. Impact of using different blood donor subpopulations and models on the estimation of transfusion transmission residual risk of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus in Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mapako, Tonderai; Janssen, Mart P.; Mvere, David A.; Emmanuel, Jean C.; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Postma, Maarten J.; van Hulst, Marinus

    BACKGROUND: Various models for estimating the residual risk (RR) of transmission of infections by blood transfusion have been published mainly based on data from high-income countries. However, to obtain the data required for such an assessment remains challenging for most developing settings. The

  10. Impact of using different blood donor subpopulations and models on the estimation of transfusion transmission residual risk of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus in Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mapako, Tonderai; Janssen, Mart P.; Mvere, David A.; Emmanuel, Jean C.; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Postma, Maarten J.; Van Hulst, Marinus

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Various models for estimating the residual risk (RR) of transmission of infections by blood transfusion have been published mainly based on data from high-income countries. However, to obtain the data required for such an assessment remains challenging for most developing settings. The

  11. INTERNAL AUDIT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Elena RUSE; Georgiana SUSMANSCHI (BADEA); Daniel DĂNECI-PĂTRĂU

    2014-01-01

    The existence of risk in economic activity can not be denied. In fact, the risk is a concept which exists in every activity, the term of risk being identified with uncertainty, respectively the (un)chance to produce an undesirable event. Internal audit and risk management aim at the same goal, namely the control of risks. Internal Audit performs several roles in risk management plan. The objectives of the internal audit function varies from company to company, but in all economic entities int...

  12. Credit risk management in banks

    OpenAIRE

    Pětníková, Tereza

    2014-01-01

    The subject of this diploma thesis is managing credit risk in banks, as the most significant risk faced by banks. The aim of this work is to define the basic techniques, tools and methods that are used by banks to manage credit risk. The first part of this work focuses on defining these procedures and describes the entire process of credit risk management, from the definition of credit risk, describing credit strategy and policy, organizational structure, defining the most used credit risk mi...

  13. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  14. Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

    2005-10-01

    The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

  15. Reputation and its risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eccles, Robert G; Newquist, Scott C; Schatz, Roland

    2007-02-01

    Regulators, industry groups, consultants, and individual companies have developed elaborate guidelines over the years for assessing and managing risks in a wide range of areas, from commodity prices to natural disasters. Yet they have all but ignored reputational risk, mostly because they aren't sure how to define or measure it. That's a big problem, say the authors. Because so much market value comes from hard-to-assess intangible assets like brand equity and intellectual capital, organizations are especially vulnerable to anything that damages their reputations. Moreover, companies with strong positive reputations attract better talent and are perceived as providing more value in their products and services, which often allows them to charge a premium. Their customers are more loyal and buy broader ranges of products and services. Since the market believes that such companies will deliver sustained earnings and future growth, they have higher price-earnings multiples and market values and lower costs of capital. Most companies, however, do an inadequate job of managing their reputations in general and the risks to their reputations in particular. They tend to focus their energies on handling the threats to their reputations that have already surfaced. That is not risk management; it is crisis management--a reactive approach aimed at limiting the damage. The authors provide a framework for actively managing reputational risk. They introduce three factors (the reputation-reality gap, changing beliefs and expectations, and weak internal coordination) that affect the level of such risks and then explore several ways to sufficiently quantify and control those factors. The process outlined in this article will help managers do a better job of assessing existing and potential threats to their companies' reputations and deciding whether to accept a particular risk or take actions to avoid or mitigate it.

  16. [Detecting high risk pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doret, Muriel; Gaucherand, Pascal

    2009-12-20

    Antenatal care is aiming to reduce maternal land foetal mortality and morbidity. Maternal and foetal mortality can be due to different causes. Their knowledge allows identifying pregnancy (high risk pregnancy) with factors associated with an increased risk for maternal and/or foetal mortality and serious morbidity. Identification of high risk pregnancies and initiation of appropriate treatment and/or surveillance should improve maternal and/or foetal outcome. New risk factors are continuously described thanks to improvement in antenatal care and development in biology and cytopathology, increasing complexity in identifying high risk pregnancies. Level of risk can change all over the pregnancy. Ideally, it should be evaluated prior to the pregnancy and at each antenatal visit. Clinical examination is able to screen for intra-uterin growth restriction, pre-eclampsia, threatened for preterm labour; ultrasounds help in the diagnosis of foetal morphological anomalies, foetal chromosomal anomalies, placenta praevia and abnormal foetal growth; biological exams are used to screen for pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, trisomy 21 (for which screening method just changed), rhesus immunisation, seroconversion for toxoplasmosis or rubeola, unknown infectious disease (syphilis, hepatitis B, VIH). During pregnancy, most of the preventive strategies have to be initiated during the first trimester or even before conception. Prevention for neural-tube defects, neonatal hypocalcemia and listeriosis should be performed for all women. On the opposite, some measures are concerning only women with risk factors such as prevention for toxoplasmosis, rhesus immunization (which recently changed), tobacco complications and pre-eclampsia and intra-uterine growth factor restriction.

  17. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  18. Current Chemical Risk Management Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  19. Live liver donors’ risk thresholds: risking a life to save a life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinari, Michele; Matz, Jacob; DeCoutere, Sarah; El-Tawil, Karim; Abu-Wasel, Bassam; Keough, Valerie

    2014-01-01

    Background There is still some controversy regarding the ethical issues involved in live donor liver transplantation (LDLT) and there is uncertainty on the range of perioperative morbidity and mortality risks that donors will consider acceptable. Methods This study analysed donors’ inclinations towards LDLT using decision analysis techniques based on the probability trade-off (PTO) method. Adult individuals with an emotional or biological relationship with a patient affected by end-stage liver disease were enrolled. Of 122 potential candidates, 100 were included in this study. Results The vast majority of participants (93%) supported LDLT. The most important factor influencing participants’ decisions was their wish to improve the recipient's chance of living a longer life. Participants chose to become donors if the recipient was required to wait longer than a mean ± standard deviation (SD) of 6 ± 5 months for a cadaveric graft, if the mean ± SD probability of survival was at least 46 ± 30% at 1 month and at least 36 ± 29% at 1 year, and if the recipient's life could be prolonged for a mean ± SD of at least 11 ± 22 months. Conclusions Potential donors were risk takers and were willing to donate when given the opportunity. They accepted significant risks, especially if they had a close emotional relationship with the recipient. PMID:24251593

  20. Risk communication. Risk studies in social science; Risk communication. Risk kenkyu eno shakai kagakuteki approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asami, M. [Keio Univ., Tokyo (Japan)

    1995-11-05

    It is recently, that is, in and after the 1980s that socio-scientific approaches began to be made to studies on `risk`. It started to be made clear that the progress of the scientific technology does not necessarily bring about good news to man, and obvious estrangement has begun to appear between scientific evaluation and social evaluation of risk. The subject of risk communication (RC) study is to tackle a proposition whether the estrangement will continue to exist as estrangement or the estrangement can be made smaller by any means. This paper explains the recent trend of the study. For example, as for how each individual thinks about risk, that is, the risk perception, a new framework is trially being constructed by introduction of the quantitative method using psychometrics. A duty of RC is to serve to bridge the gap between scientific technology and society which are controlled by values which are incompatible with each other. Therefore, RC will be more and more important. 15 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  1. Genetic risks from radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selby, P.B.

    Two widely-recognized committees, UNSCEAR and BEIR, have reevaluated their estimates of genetic risks from radiation. Their estimates for gene mutations are based on two different approaches, one being the doubling-dose approach and the other being a new direct approach based on an empirical determination of the amount of dominant induced damage in the skeletons of mice in the first generation following irradiation. The estimates made by these committees are in reasonably good agreement and suggest that the genetic risks from present exposures resultng from nuclear power production are small. There is room for much improvement in the reliability of the risk estimates. The relatively new approach of measuring the amount of induced damage to the mouse skeleton shows great promise of improving knowledge about how changes in the mutation frequency affect the incidence of genetic disorders. Such findings may have considerable influence on genetic risk estimates for radiation and on the development of risk estimates for other less-well-understood environmental mutagens. (author)

  2. Cancer risk from inorganics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swierenga, S.H.; Gilman, J.P.; McLean, J.R.

    1987-01-01

    Inorganic metals and minerals for which there is evidence of carcinogenicity are identified. The risk of cancer from contact with them in the work place, the general environment, and under conditions of clinical (medical) exposure is discussed. The evidence indicates that minerals and metals most often influence cancer development through their action as cocarcinogens. The relationship between the physical form of mineral fibers, smoking and carcinogenic risk is emphasized. Metals are categorized as established (As, Be, Cr, Ni), suspected (Cd, Pb) and possible carcinogens, based on the existing in vitro, animal experimental and human epidemiological data. Cancer risk and possible modes of action of elements in each class are discussed. Views on mechanisms that may be responsible for the carcinogenicity of metals are updated and analysed. Some specific examples of cancer risks associated with the clinical use of potentially carcinogenic metals and from radioactive pharmaceuticals used in therapy and diagnosis are presented. Questions are raised as to the effectiveness of conventional dosimetry in accurately measuring risk from radiopharmaceuticals. 302 references

  3. Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants : risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.

    Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on

  4. Sound construction of risk indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Peter Borgen; Kjær, Christian; Thomsen, Marianne

      In spite of the great effort in the area of environmental risk assessment of chemicals, a critical amount of uncertainty is still a reality due to high complexity of the governing risk problem. Unexpected adverse effects may thus take place event though the risk assessment predicts no-risk. Some...... chemicals are even lacking risk assessment due to a priori judgment based on risk screening methods that bypass further risk assessment activity. It is thus advisable to set up a safety net under the risk assessment of chemicals and this poster suggests a supporting paradigm using risk indicators...... that governs the method: HotSpot Driven Aggregation of Risk Indicators (HoSDARI) as described in Sørensen et al. (2008). The purpose of the risk assessment is to protect a defined target that has some value for protection. The target has a number of realizations each defined as a Protection Unit (PU...

  5. Self-perceived facture risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rothmann, M J; Ammentorp, J; Bech, M

    2015-01-01

    , and self-rated heath) and self-perceived fracture risk. Although women recognized the importance of some fracture risk factors, a number of significant risk factors appeared to be less well known. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study is to investigate women's self-perceived fracture risk and potential...... factors associated with this and to compare self-perceived risk with absolute fracture risk estimated by FRAX® in women aged 65-80 years. METHODS: Data from 20,905 questionnaires from the ROSE study were analyzed. The questionnaire included 25 items on osteoporosis, risk factors for fractures, and self...... their fracture risk significantly higher than their peers. No correlation between self-perceived risk and absolute risk was found. The ordered logistic regression model showed a significant association between high self-perceived fracture risk and previous fragility fracture, parental hip fracture, falls, self...

  6. Modelling allergenic risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birot, Sophie

    combines second order Monte-Carlo simulations with Bayesian inferences [13]. An alternative method using second order Monte-Carlo simulations was proposed to take into account the uncertainty from the inputs. The uncertainty propagation from the inputs to the risk of allergic reaction was also evaluated...... countries is proposed. Thus, the allergen risk assessment can be performed cross-nationally and for the correct food group. Then the two probabilistic risk assessment methods usually used were reviewed and compared. First order Monte-Carlo simulations are used in one method [14], whereas the other one......Up to 20 million Europeans suffer from food allergies. Due to the lack of knowledge about why food allergies developed or how to protect allergic consumers from the offending food, food allergy management is mainly based on food allergens avoidance. The iFAAM project (Integrated approaches to Food...

  7. Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation measures are nearly Gaussian, this unpredictability brings considerably more uncertainty to the empirically relevant ex ante distribution of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized volatility model, which incorporates the fact that realized volatility series are systematically more volatile in high volatility periods. Returns in this framework display time varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis. We provide a detailed account of the empirical advantages of the model using data on the S&P 500 index and eight other indexes and stocks.

  8. Risk of cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gejl, Michael; Starup-Linde, Jakob; Scheel-Thomsen, Jan

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: Type 2 diabetes (DM) increases the risk of cardiovascular disease. We investigated the effects of antidiabetic drugs on the composite endpoint (CE) of ischemic heart disease, heart failure or stroke in DM patients. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study. Cases were DM patients who......% CI: 16.88-24.12), neuropathy (OR=1.39, 95% CI: 1.05-1.85) and peripheral artery disease (OR=1.31, 95% CI: 1.02-1.69) increased the risk of CE. Biguanides (OR=0.62 95% CI; 0.54-0.71) and liraglutide (OR=0.48 95% CI; 0.38-0.62) significantly decreased the risk of CE as did statin treatment (OR=0.63, 95...

  9. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  10. Danger, hazard, risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kafka, P.

    1992-01-01

    The real conditions covered by technical safety studies are described better by the term 'risk' instead of such qualitative terms as 'danger' or 'hazard'. 'Risk' incorporates not only the type of damage, the onset of damage, the probability of damage occurring, but also the extent of damage. In reliability and safety engineering, a probabilistic safety analysis is able to describe a plant most comprehensively by these three elements: What can happen? How frequently will it occur? What are the impacts to be taken into account? PSA is meaningful not only when applied to such technical areas in which there is a risk potential; the holistic analytical process optimizes any kind of system and plant in terms of availability and technical safety. (orig.) [de

  11. Risk and response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warner, F

    1980-12-01

    There is little correlation between public response to perceived risks and the life-expectancy statistics for hazardous occupations. Case studies show that the public reacts more strongly to conflicting information from the warnings of experts and the media, giving more credence to individual situations than to statistical probabilities. The impact of a large-scale accident intensifies the perception of risk even though the situation may be safer over time. These factors affect the public's ability to accept nuclear power and its insistence on public debate, which may shift from the area of facts and documentation to that of values. Decision makers may need to compromise by shifting expenditures to actions that involve low levels of risk. 2 references, 1 figure, 2 tables. (DCK)

  12. Government Risk-Bearing

    CERN Document Server

    1993-01-01

    The u.s. government bulks large in the nation's financial markets. The huge volume of government-issued and -sponsored debt affects the pricing and volume ofprivate debt and, consequently, resource allocation between competing alternatives. What is often not fully appreciated is the substantial influence the federal government wields overresource allocation through its provisionofcreditandrisk-bearing services to the private economy. Because peopleand firms generally seekto avoid risk, atsomeprice they are willing to pay another party to assume the risk they would otherwise face. Insurance companies are a class of private-sector firms one commonly thinks of as providing these services. As the federal government has expanded its presence in the U.S. economy during this century, it has increasingly developed programs aimed at bearing risks that the private sector either would not take on at any price, or would take on but atapricethoughtto besogreatthatmostpotentialbeneficiarieswouldnotpurchase the coverage. To...

  13. Modified risk evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

  14. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  15. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  16. Risks from dental radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Tamara Goularte

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this research is to demonstrate the risks and consequences of exposure to dental X-ray. The methodology used was the survey of bibliographic literature on this matter. First, we tried to understand the operation and characteristics of dental X-rays. Afterwards, we tried to know about the risks that this procedure offers to workers and patients. And concluded with the consequences of such exposure. The results showed that dental x-rays only offer risks in prolonged exposure, can affect the worker or patient to pathologies such as cancer or a life-time decreased due to the stochastic effect. Therefore, radiological protection standards must be respected and practised. (author)

  17. Risks for radiation workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rotblat, J.

    1978-01-01

    The following topics are discussed: recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection; methods for determining dose limits to workers; use of data from survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki for estimating risk factors; use of data from survivors of nuclear explosions in Marshall Islands, uranium miners, and patients exposed to diagnostic and therapeutic radiation; risk factors for radioinduced malignancies; evidence that risk factors for persons exposed to partial-body radiation and Japanese survivors are too low; greater resistance of A-bomb survivors to radiation; and radiation doses received by U.K. medical workers and by U.K. fuel reprocessing workers. It is suggested that the dose limit for radiation workers should be reduced by a factor of 5

  18. Insurance of nuclear risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacroix, M.

    1976-01-01

    Insurance for large nuclear installations covers mainly four types of risk: third party liability which in accordance with the nuclear conventions, is borne by a nuclear operator following an incident occurring in his installation or during transport of nuclear substances; material damage to the installation itself, which precisely is not covered by third party liability insurance; machinery breakdown, i.e. accidental damage or interruption of operation. Only the first category must be insured. In view of the magnitude of the risk, nuclear insurance resorts to co-insurance and reinsurance techniques which results in a special organisation of the nuclear insurance market, based on national nuclear insurance pools and on the Standing Committee on Atomic Risk of the European Insurance Committee. Conferences of the chairmen of nuclear insurance pools are convened regularly at a worldwide level. (NEA) [fr

  19. The CPC Risk Calculator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røder, Martin Andreas; Berg, Kasper Drimer; Loft, Mathias Dyrberg

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It can be challenging to predict the risk of biochemical recurrence (BR) during follow-up after radical prostatectomy (RP) in men who have undetectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA), even years after surgery. OBJECTIVE: To establish and validate a contemporary nomogram that predicts...... on the necessity for further follow-up. The nomogram is the first to be available as a free app. PATIENT SUMMARY: We developed an easily interpretable nomogram to evaluate the risk of prostate-specific antigen elevation (cancer recurrence) following complete removal of the prostate (radical prostatectomy...... included. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Time to BR was defined as the first PSA result ≥0.2 ng/ml. BR risk was computed using multiple cause-specific Cox regression including preoperative PSA, pT category, RP Gleason score (GS), and surgical margin (R) status. Death without BR...

  20. Diagnostic radiation risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherwood, T [Addenbrooke' s Hospital, Cambridge (UK)

    1980-04-01

    A brief discussion on diagnostic radiation risks is given. First some fundamental facts on the concepts and units of radiation measurement are clarified. Medical diagnostic radiation doses are also compared to the radiation doses received annually by man from natural background radiation. The controversy concerning the '10-day rule' in X-raying women of child-bearing age is discussed; it would appear that the risk of malformation in an unborn child due to X-radiation is very much less than the natural level of risk of malformation. The differences in the radiographic techniques and thus the different X-ray doses needed to make adequate X-ray images of different parts of the body are considered. The radiation burden of nuclear medicine investigations compared to X-ray procedures is also discussed. Finally, the problems of using volunteers in radiation research are aired.

  1. Ecological risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartell, S.M.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.

    1992-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment, the process that evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors, is being developed by the US EPA as a tool for decision making. This book presents one approach to risk assessment-that of applying laboratory toxicity data within an ecosystem model to predict the potential ecological consequences of toxic chemicals. Both Standard Water Column Model (SWACOM), using zooplankton and fish, and Monte Carlo simulations are discussed in detail, along with quantitative explanations for many responses. Simplifying assumptions are explicitly presented. The final chapter discusses strengths, weaknesses, and future directions of the approach. The book is appropriate for anyone who does or uses ecological risk assessment methodologies

  2. Risk premium and insalubrity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Portela, Josmael; Figueira, Rosania Lucia

    2005-01-01

    The risk premium and insalubrity have been widely discussed in the legal universe/labor. The social and economic impacts interfere on the right of the professional exposed to ionizing radiation to have or not additional rights. Due to the large accidents, with world repercussion, which occurred in recent times, involving workers undergoing these radiation, these professionals are receiving special attention by the competent bodies on the right or not to risk premium and insalubrity. The professional who operates equipment that emit ionising radiation, or those working directly with radioisotopes are undoubtedly under imminent risk, even if they complied with all safety requirements, thus deserving a more careful analysis by our lawyers with respect to receive additional percentages. Recent decisions of higher Courts begin to consolidate a more just and logical reasoning on the subject

  3. Risk management versus incentives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, E.; Lovas, K.; Osmundsen, P.

    2006-01-01

    Portfolio theory indicates that risk management should take place at the group level. Hedging at the project level or in the individual business areas may lead to suboptimal results. However, the efficiency of a profit centre depends on its management's being able to influence factors that are crucial to the unit's financial results. Price hedging could be one such factor. In the wider perspective, this constitutes part of the balancing between centralisation and decentralisation. This article covers important elements of risk management and incentive design. It goes on to discuss the balancing of overall risk management at the group level and incentive design in profit centres and corporate units. Throughout the article, the oil industry serves as a case. (author)

  4. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  5. Panel data nonparametric estimation of production risk and risk preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    approaches for obtaining firm-specific measures of risk attitudes. We found that Polish dairy farmers are risk averse regarding production risk and price uncertainty. According to our results, Polish dairy farmers perceive the production risk as being more significant than the risk related to output price......We apply nonparametric panel data kernel regression to investigate production risk, out-put price uncertainty, and risk attitudes of Polish dairy farms based on a firm-level unbalanced panel data set that covers the period 2004–2010. We compare different model specifications and different...

  6. Innovation and environmental risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, L.; Weale, A.

    1991-01-01

    This book assembles the opinions of a number of authors to examine the issue of environmental impact and risk associated with innovation. Public, industrial and government responses to new technological developments are considered with respect to pesticides, genetic engineering, food technology and radiation protection. On the one hand innovation promises and delivers great benefits to society, but on the other hand it is increasingly perceived as a threat to the health and safety of its citizens and to the environment. This dilemma lead to a conference to discuss the benefits and risks of innovation. Papers given at the conference have been included in this book after discussion and revision. (UK)

  7. COMPANY ACTIVITY FINANCIAL RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caruntu Genu Alexandru

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In economic and financial activity, risk is an inherent financial decisions, encountered in daily agenda of managers of companies. Unexpected changes in the price of a product development not only affect the financial results of a company, but can cause even bankruptcy. In fact, the nature of financial decisions involve uncertainty. Financial decisions are made based on cash flows under future contracts, which are par excellence incerte.Activitatea an enterprise that holds any weight in the industry is subject to risks, since it can not predict with certainty different components of its outcome (cost, quantity, price and operating cycle (purchase, processing, sales.

  8. Are risks quantitatively determinable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buetzer, P.

    1985-01-01

    ''Chemical risks'' can only be determined with accurate figures in a few extraordinary cases. The difficulties lie, as has been shown by the example of the Flixborough catastrophe, mostly in the determination of the probabilities of occurrence. With a rough semiquantitative estimate of the potential hazards and the corresponding probabilities we can predict the risks with astonishing accuracy. Statistical data from incidents in the chemical industry are very useful, and they also show that ''chemical catastrophes'' are only to a very small extent initiated by uncontrolled chemical reactions. (orig.) [de

  9. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  10. Radiation. Doses, effect, risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vapirev, E.; Todorov, P.

    1994-12-01

    This book outlines in a popular form the topic of ionizing radiation impacts on living organisms. It contains data gathered by ICRP for a period of 35 years. The essential dosimetry terms and units are presented. Natural and artificial sources of ionizing radiation are described. Possible biological radiation effects and diseases as a consequence of external and internal irradiation at normal and accidental conditions are considered. An assessment of genetic risk for human populations is presented and the concept of 'acceptable risk' is discussed

  11. Risk, Affect and Emotion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens O. Zinn

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available For a long time theorising has underestimated the importance of affect and emotion in decision making and the management of risk and uncertainty. In relatively one-sided interpretations emotions were often interpreted as threats for rational decision making, and could be triggered by uncertainties, which would go along with social change. Recent interdisciplinary research has shown the importance to acknowledge the more complex link between reasoning and emotions. The article outlines different perspectives on emotion in risk research of economics, psychology and sociology and argues for further research. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0601293

  12. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  13. Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

    2012-08-01

    This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  15. The International Bleeding Risk Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Laine, L.; Dalton, H.

    2017-01-01

    The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding.......The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding....

  16. How the media report risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawkes, N.

    1999-01-01

    The difficulties involved in measuring risk, the differences between risk and the perception of risk, and the growing trend for irrationalism, all contribute to the problem of educating the public about the risks from nuclear power. This paper looks at these issues from a journalistic perspective. (author)

  17. Risk management of precious metals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Hammoudeh (Shawkat); F. Malik (Farooq); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines volatility and correlation dynamics in price returns of gold, silver, platinum and palladium, and explores the corresponding risk management implications for market risk and hedging. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is used to analyze the downside market risk associated with

  18. Risk Management in Cocurricular Activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Edward M.

    1988-01-01

    Discusses risk management for colleges' cocurricular activities. Discusses tort liability, contributory negligence, and assumption of risk. Provides six concrete steps for managing risks responsibly and professionally: adopting an educational mission statement, assigning risk to others, establishing safety standards, training club advisors,…

  19. Risk Management in Logystics Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Butrin, Andrey; Vikulov, Vladimir

    2013-01-01

    Article is devoted to risk management of supply chain. The authors considered indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers.

  20. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

  1. Improving Information Security Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anand

    2009-01-01

    manaOptimizing risk to information to protect the enterprise as well as to satisfy government and industry mandates is a core function of most information security departments. Risk management is the discipline that is focused on assessing, mitigating, monitoring and optimizing risks to information. Risk assessments and analyses are critical…

  2. Risk and information processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, J.

    1985-08-01

    The reasons for the current widespread arguments between designers of advanced technological systems like, for instance, nuclear power plants and opponents from the general public concerning levels of acceptable risk may be found in incompatible definitions of risk, in differences in risk perception and criteria for acceptance, etc. Of importance may, however, also be the difficulties met in presenting the basis for risk analysis, such as the conceptual system models applied, in an explicit and credible form. Application of modern information technology for the design of control systems and human-machine interfaces together with the trends towards large centralised industrial installations have made it increasingly difficult to establish an acceptable model framework, in particular considering the role of human errors in major system failures and accidents. Different aspects of this problem are discussed in the paper, and areas are identified where research is needed in order to improve not only the safety of advanced systems, but also the basis for their acceptance by the general public. (author)

  3. HIV Risk and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Prevention VIH En Español Get Tested Find an HIV testing site near you. Enter ZIP code or city Follow HIV/AIDS CDC HIV CDC HIV/AIDS See RSS | ... Email Updates on HIV Syndicated Content Website Feedback HIV Risk and Prevention Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share ...

  4. Industrial risk perceptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1988-01-01

    The risks of occupational exposure to radiation need fuller and more explicit characterization. They also need a more developed quantitative comparison with more familiar occupational hazards. To achieve this, some criterion is needed for establishing the amount of detriment one should attribute to different harmful effects, e.g., from accidents at work which cause death, temporary or permanent disability; from fatal and nonfatal cancers; from developmental abnormalities and any likely nonstochastic effects; and from a range of genetic defects. No such criterion for comparing incommensurable kinds of harm can be scientifically defined, but one is essential if occupational exposure standards are to be put into perspective. A comparison of the frequency of fatal cancers and severe genetic defects with that of accidental deaths at work is admittedly incomplete. One possible starting point is from a review of the average length of healthy life and activity lost as a result of nonfatal industrial accidents and some curable cancers, or of gross impairment during the course of an active disease or as a result of many types of genetic defect, or of life expectancy lost absolutely owing to fatal accidents and diseases. Estimates are discussed to emphasize the areas in which opinion is most needed to translate measures of risk based simply on total time lost into acceptable criteria of perceived detriment. Standards of industrial safety are reviewed on this basis, both for risk from accidents at work and from radiation exposure, with evidence on the rate at which both types of risk are being reduced

  5. Classical competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2001-01-01

    If something can fail, it can often fail in one of several ways and sometimes in more than one way at a time. There is always some cause of failure, and almost always, more than one possible cause. In one sense, then, survival analysis is a lost cause. The methods of Competing Risks have often been neglected in the survival analysis literature. Written by a leading statistician, Classical Competing Risks thoroughly examines the probability framework and statistical analysis of data of Competing Risks. The author explores both the theory of the subject and the practicalities of fitting the models to data. In a coherent, self-contained, and sequential account, the treatment moves from the bare bones of the Competing Risks setup and the associated likelihood functions through survival analysis using hazard functions. It examines discrete failure times and the difficulties of identifiability, and concludes with an introduction to the counting-process approach and the associated martingale theory.With a dearth of ...

  6. Risk Aversion and Religion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noussair, C.N.; Trautmann, S.T.; van de Kuilen, G.; Vellekoop, N.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Using a dataset for a demographically representative sample of the Dutch population, containing a revealed preference risk attitude measure, as well as very detailed information about participants’ religious background, we study three issues raised in previous literature. First, we find

  7. Cancer risks and prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vessey, M.P.; Gray, M.

    1985-01-01

    A series of essays in honour of Sir Richard Doll is presented. Chapters cover the preventability of cancer, geography, smoking, diet, occupation, radiation, infections and immune impairment, exogenous and endogenous hormones, other drugs, prevention through legislation and by education and cancer risks and prevention in the Third World. The chapter on radiation has been indexed separately. (UK)

  8. Risks of Breast Implants

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... have a risk of developing a type of cancer called breast implant-associated anaplastic large cell lymphoma (BIA-ALCL) in the breast tissue surrounding the implant. BIA-ALCL is not breast cancer. Women diagnosed with BIA-ALCL may need to ...

  9. Risk and response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warner, F W

    1980-12-01

    A discussion of nuclear power and public acceptability can quite properly begin with a general consideration of the nature of response to risk. Response follows perception and builds up from individual through group response to the judgement of society expressed in governmental decisions on what is acceptable. The subject is analysed in some detail, with examples.

  10. Society-ethics-risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruh, H.; Seiler, H.

    1993-01-01

    The aim of the workshops which was reported in this volume, was the interpretation and evaluation of catastrophic risks for society in an interdisciplinary dialogue between representation of society, ethics, as well as natural science and technology. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  11. Media, risk and science

    CERN Document Server

    Allan, Stuart

    2002-01-01

    How is science represented by the media? Who defines what counts as a risk, threat or hazard, and why? In what ways do media images of science shape public perceptions? What can cultural and media studies tell us about current scientific controversies? "Media, Risk and Science" is an exciting exploration into an array of important issues, providing a much needed framework for understanding key debates on how the media represent science and risk. In a highly effective way, Stuart Allan weaves together insights from multiple strands of research across diverse disciplines. Among the themes he examines are: the role of science in science fiction, such as "Star Trek"; the problem of 'pseudo-science' in "The X-Files"; and how science is displayed in science museums. Science journalism receives particular attention, with the processes by which science is made 'newsworthy' unravelled for careful scrutiny. The book also includes individual chapters devoted to how the media portray environmental risks, HIV-AIDS, food s...

  12. Risks of power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mostert, P.

    1981-01-01

    A comparison is made between the various ways of power generation in the Netherlands and the hazards attached to them. Tables are presented of fuels used, the quantities used per annum and in the course of the last 20 years, accidents and pollution types and percentages, as well as the toxicity and waste disposal risks. (Auth.)

  13. The relativity of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, R.H.

    1987-01-01

    The transport of radioactive material has long been a subject of emotive controversy. For a realistic assessment of the risks involved, however, they must be seen in the context of the transport of any hazardous cargoes, especially those which are energy-producing products

  14. Unraveling risk appetite

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. A.F. de Wild

    2013-01-01

    One of the most difficult choices that organizations face is the choice to spend resources today to reduce the probability or negative impact of events that may happen tomorrow. In hindsight, it seems to be a waste to spend organizational resources on reducing the risk of low probability events that

  15. Restricting wolves risks escape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L. David; Ballard, Warren; Bangs, Ed; Ream, Bob

    2010-01-01

    Implementing the proposal set forth by Licht and colleagues (BioScience 60: 147–153) requires restricting wolves to tiny "islands," areas that are magnitudes smaller than the ranges of most wolf populations. Wolves naturally have large ranges; restricting their spatial needs increases the risk of wolves escaping, exacerbating public relations and political and legal problems.

  16. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  17. Between Imperative and Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steen

    2011-01-01

    While companies from small neutral states are frequently more vulnerable to the risks of doing business with or under dictatorial regimes than are companies from great powers, they are not helpless. This article shows that the strategy that both Danish and Swedish companies selected according to ...

  18. Epistemological risk aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ardashkin I.B.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers risk in the context of the main characteristics of non-classical epistemology. It states that non-classical epistemology is characterized by transformation, according to which the major priority of cognitive activity shifts the focus from the present to the past. In this situation a subject is keen not on what he or she has learnt but on what can be learnt. Truth being a crucial criterion of scientific knowledge is becoming of less priority, while risk is becoming more and more significant and acts as one of the major epistemology measurements. Risk is gaining the status of epistemological phenomenon, which shows a growing degree of uncertainty as a cognitive process background and the necessity for a subject to learn the world (make decisions under the conditions of uncertainty degree strengthening. The author states that risk is a comprehensive notion and it obtains a base value for all other aspects of its application, specifically, in the role of epistemological phenomenon.

  19. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  20. Risks, uncertainty, vagueness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.; Renn, O.; Erdmann, G.

    1990-01-01

    The notion of 'risk' is discussed in its social and technological contexts, leading to an investigation of the terms factuality, hypotheticality, uncertainty, and vagueness, and to the problems of acceptance and acceptability especially in the context of political decision finding. (DG) [de