Issues raised in the limitation, control and measurement of radiation risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dennis, J.A.

1989-01-01

Over the past few years a consistent set of quantities for ionising radiation measurements in radiological protection have been defined. The efforts being made by those concerned with radiation dosimetry to ensure the universal adoption and use of these quantities are now threatened by further developments in risk concepts. The most serious threats arise from changed perceptions about the quality factors appropriate for different radiations due to improved biological information about relative biological effectiveness, and the increased importance to be given to the cancer risk estimates derived from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors following the revised dose estimates. A change in the basis of quality factor specification will require careful consideration if it is not to produce further problems in obtaining agreement on the conceptual basis for radiological protection metrology. The change is primarily for adoption in the calculation of the risk quantity, effective dose equivalent. Some of the possible options for taking account of the change in regard to the measurement quantities are examined. (author)

RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming-Chang LEE

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

A Framework for Collateral Risk Control Determination

OpenAIRE

Didier Cossin; Zhijiang Huang; Daniel Aunon-Nerin; Fer nando González

2002-01-01

This paper derives a general framework for collateral risk control determination in repurchase transactions or repos. The objective is to treat consistently heterogeneous collateral so that the collateral taker has a similar risk exposure whatever the collateral pledged. The framework measures the level of risk with the probability of incurring a loss higher than a pre-specified level given two well-known parameters used to manage the intrinsic risk of collateral: marking to market and haircu...

Lifestyle Advice Combined with Personalized Estimates of Genetic or Phenotypic Risk of Type 2 Diabetes, and Objectively Measured Physical Activity: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Job G Godino

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Information about genetic and phenotypic risk of type 2 diabetes is now widely available and is being incorporated into disease prevention programs. Whether such information motivates behavior change or has adverse effects is uncertain. We examined the effect of communicating an estimate of genetic or phenotypic risk of type 2 diabetes in a parallel group, open, randomized controlled trial.We recruited 569 healthy middle-aged adults from the Fenland Study, an ongoing population-based, observational study in the east of England (Cambridgeshire, UK. We used a computer-generated random list to assign participants in blocks of six to receive either standard lifestyle advice alone (control group, n = 190 or in combination with a genetic (n = 189 or a phenotypic (n = 190 risk estimate for type 2 diabetes (intervention groups. After 8 wk, we measured the primary outcome, objectively measured physical activity (kJ/kg/day, and also measured several secondary outcomes (including self-reported diet, self-reported weight, worry, anxiety, and perceived risk. The study was powered to detect a between-group difference of 4.1 kJ/kg/d at follow-up. 557 (98% participants completed the trial. There were no significant intervention effects on physical activity (difference in adjusted mean change from baseline: genetic risk group versus control group 0.85 kJ/kg/d (95% CI -2.07 to 3.77, p = 0.57; phenotypic risk group versus control group 1.32 (95% CI -1.61 to 4.25, p = 0.38; and genetic risk group versus phenotypic risk group -0.47 (95% CI -3.40 to 2.46, p = 0.75. No significant differences in self-reported diet, self-reported weight, worry, and anxiety were observed between trial groups. Estimates of perceived risk were significantly more accurate among those who received risk information than among those who did not. Key limitations include the recruitment of a sample that may not be representative of the UK population, use of self-reported secondary outcome

Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunesen, Eva Rytter

This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk...... for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian...... and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...

Comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability risk ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Decision making for water resource planning is often related to social, economic and environmental factors. There are various methods for making decisions about water resource planning alternatives and measures with various shortcomings. A comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability risk analysis ...

Multiple shooting applied to robust reservoir control optimization including output constraints on coherent risk measures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Codas, Andrés; Hanssen, Kristian G.; Foss, Bjarne

2017-01-01

The production life of oil reservoirs starts under significant uncertainty regarding the actual economical return of the recovery process due to the lack of oil field data. Consequently, investors and operators make management decisions based on a limited and uncertain description of the reservoir....... In this work, we propose a new formulation for robust optimization of reservoir well controls. It is inspired by the multiple shooting (MS) method which permits a broad range of parallelization opportunities and output constraint handling. This formulation exploits coherent risk measures, a concept...

Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vaurio, Jussi K., E-mail: jussi.vaurio@pp1.inet.fi [Prometh Solutions, Hiihtaejaenkuja 3K, 06100 Porvoo (Finland)

2011-11-15

This paper describes roles, extensions and applications of importance measures of components and configurations for making risk-informed decisions relevant to system operations, maintenance and safety. Basic importance measures and their relationships are described for independent and mutually exclusive events and for groups of events associated with common cause failures. The roles of importances are described mainly in two groups of activities: (a) ranking safety significance of systems, structures, components and human actions for preventive safety assurance activities, and (b) making decisions about permissible permanent and temporary configurations and allowed configuration times for regulation, technical specifications and for on-line risk monitoring. Criticality importance and sums of criticalities turn out to be appropriate measures for ranking and optimization. Several advantages are pointed out and consistent ranking of pipe segments for in-service inspection is provided as an example. Risk increase factor and its generalization risk gain are most appropriately used to assess corrective priorities and acceptability of a situation when components are already failed or when planning to take one or more components out of service for maintenance. Precise definitions are introduced for multi-failure configurations and it is shown how they can be assessed under uncertainties, in particular when common cause failures or success states may be involved. A general weighted average method is compared to other candidate methods in benchmark cases. It is the preferable method for prediction when a momentary configuration is known or only partially known. Potential applications and optimization of allowed outage times are described. The results show how to generalize and apply various importance measures to ranking and optimization and how to manage configurations in uncertain multi-failure situations. - Highlights: > Rigorous methods developed for using importances

Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaurio, Jussi K.

2011-01-01

This paper describes roles, extensions and applications of importance measures of components and configurations for making risk-informed decisions relevant to system operations, maintenance and safety. Basic importance measures and their relationships are described for independent and mutually exclusive events and for groups of events associated with common cause failures. The roles of importances are described mainly in two groups of activities: (a) ranking safety significance of systems, structures, components and human actions for preventive safety assurance activities, and (b) making decisions about permissible permanent and temporary configurations and allowed configuration times for regulation, technical specifications and for on-line risk monitoring. Criticality importance and sums of criticalities turn out to be appropriate measures for ranking and optimization. Several advantages are pointed out and consistent ranking of pipe segments for in-service inspection is provided as an example. Risk increase factor and its generalization risk gain are most appropriately used to assess corrective priorities and acceptability of a situation when components are already failed or when planning to take one or more components out of service for maintenance. Precise definitions are introduced for multi-failure configurations and it is shown how they can be assessed under uncertainties, in particular when common cause failures or success states may be involved. A general weighted average method is compared to other candidate methods in benchmark cases. It is the preferable method for prediction when a momentary configuration is known or only partially known. Potential applications and optimization of allowed outage times are described. The results show how to generalize and apply various importance measures to ranking and optimization and how to manage configurations in uncertain multi-failure situations. - Highlights: → Rigorous methods developed for using importances

Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC Accidents at Power Plant

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Asmalia Che

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Power plant had a reputation of being one of the most hazardous workplace environments. Workers in the power plant face many safety risks due to the nature of the job. Although power plants are safer nowadays since the industry has urged the employer to improve their employees’ safety, the employees still stumble upon many hazards thus accidents at workplace. The aim of the present study is to investigate work related accidents at power plants based on HIRARC (Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control process. The data were collected at two coal-fired power plant located in Malaysia. The finding of the study identified hazards and assess risk relate to accidents occurred at the power plants. The finding of the study suggested the possible control measures and corrective actions to reduce or eliminate the risk that can be used by power plant in preventing accidents from occurred

Uses of risk importance measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankamo, T.; Poern, K.; Holmberg, J.

1991-05-01

Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frohwein, H.I.; Lambert, J.H.; Haimes, Y.Y.

1999-01-01

A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

Implementation of new legislative measures on industrial risks prevention and control in urban areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cahen, Bruno

2006-01-01

Incompatible at first sight, but vital to each other, the industry and the city have been developing a complex relationship for decades. From 1810 on in France, risk prevention and control in and around major industrial sites evolves step-by-step, learning from accidents. Land-use planning in the vicinity of SEVESO establishments becomes one of the key policies in the prevention of major industrial accident hazard on European level in 1996, focussing on historical situation of concern [M.D. Christou, S. Porter, Guidance on Land-use Planning as required by the Council Directive 96/82/EC. Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 1999]. The Toulouse (F) accidents, on 21 September 2001 evidenced the need for new tools to reinforce protective action and ease the situation of clusters of factories engulfed in the urban setting. In France, new legislative measures adopted on 30 July 2003 deeply modified the approach to land-use planning around the main dangerous facilities (622 establishments). The implementation of technological risk prevention plans [Fr. 'PPRT'] will limit the exposition of the population to the consequences of accidents. These plans, derived from the risk assessment (safety reports) produced by the operators of the hazardous facilities, will delineate areas within which requirements can be imposed on existing and future buildings and within which future building rights may be restricted. On the grounds of extremely serious danger that threatens human life, pre-existing constructions may be progressively expropriated. The financing of the corresponding measures, estimated a rough -bar 2-4 billions, will be defined by agreements among the Central Government, the industrial company and the local and regional bodies

Measuring Systemic Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

2017-01-01

We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

Risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szikszai, T.

1997-01-01

The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

Internal controls and credit risk relationship among banks in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The study purport to investigate the effectiveness of internal control mechanisms, investigate whether evidence of agency problem is found among banks in Europe and determine how internal controls affect credit risk. Design/methodology/approach: Panel data from 91 banks from 23 European Union countries were studied from 2008-2014. Hausman’s specification test suggest the use of fixed effects estimation technique of GLS. Quantitatively modelled data on 15 variables covering elements of internal controls, objectives of internal controls, agency problem, bank and country specific variables were used. Findings: There is still high credit risk in spite of measures being implemented by the European Central Bank. Banks have individual entity factors that increase or decrease credit risk. The study finds effective internal control systems because objectives of internal controls are achieved and significantly determine credit risk. Agency problem is confirmed due to significant positive relation with credit risk. There is significant effect of internal controls on credit risk with specific variables as risk assessment, return on average risk weighted assets, institutional ownership, bank size, inflation, interest rate and GDP. Research limitations/implications: Missing data prevented the use of strongly balanced panel. The lack of flexibility with using quantitative approach did not allow further scrutiny of the nature of variables. However, statistical tests were acceptable for the model used. The study has implications for management and owners of banks to be warry of agency problem because that provides incentive for reckless high risk transactions that may benefit the agent than the principal. Management must engage in actions that profile the company better and enhances value maximization. Rising default risk has tendency to impair corporate image leading to loss of reputational capital. Originality/value: The study provides the use of

Models of Credit Risk Measurement

OpenAIRE

Hagiu Alina

2011-01-01

Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

Risk management in customs control

OpenAIRE

Drobot, Elena; Klevleeva, Aziza

2016-01-01

The particularities of risk-management system implementation within customs control are discussed in the article. The authors single out the elements of risk-management system, evaluate effectiveness of risk-management in customs control. The main reasons for non-implementation of risk-management system in customs control are described, as well. Particular attention is paid to the benefits of customs risk management.

RISK MANAGEMENT IN CUSTOMS CONTROL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Valerievna Drobot

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Customs administrations operating in the modern global economy are faced with a complex range of challenges. The prime responsibilities remain the collection of revenues and the protection of the society, but these demanding tasks must be performed effectively and efficiently, whilst at the same time facilitating the flow of legitimate goods. Risk management is a logical and systematic method of identifying, analyzing and managing risks. Risk management can be associated with any activity, function or process within the organization and will enable the organization to take advantage of opportunities and minimize potential losses. Minimization of the human factor in customs control through the implementation of non-intrusive inspection equipment can be very useful. The particularities of risk-management system (RMS implementation within customs control are discussed in the article. The authors single out the elements of the risk-management system, evaluate the effectiveness of risk-management in customs control. The main reasons for non-implementation of the risk-management system in customs control are described as well. The particular attention is paid to the benefits of customs risk management. The authors’ hypothesis is that risk management in customs control must find a balance between costs and benefits to address all risks equally. Criteria are needed to decide what constitutes an acceptable or unacceptable risk. Thus, system analysis and risk management system are the effective mechanisms for acceleration of customs clearance and improve the quality of customs control. As a conclusion, the authors give recommendations for the improvement of the effectiveness of risk management system in customs control.

Safety control and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, J.

1987-01-01

The acceptable probability of major accidents in nuclear power is very small, and can not be determined from direct empirical evidence. Therefore, control of the level of safety is a complex problem. The difficulty is related to the fact that a variable, 'safety', which is not accessible to direct measurement, is to be tightly controlled. Control, therefore, depends on a systematic, analytical prediction of the target state, i.e., the level of safety, from indirect evidence. From a control theoretic point of view this means that safety is controlled by a system which includes openloop as well as closed loop control paths. The aim of the paper is to take a general systems view on the complex mechanisms involved in the control of safety of industrial installations like nuclear power. From this, the role of probabilistic risk analysis is evaluated and needs for further development discussed. (author)

[Safety evaluation and risk control measures of Cassiae Semen].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yi-Meng; Wu, Li; Zhang, Shuo; Zhang, Li; Gao, Xue-Min; Sun, Xiao-Bo; Wang, Chun

2017-11-01

In this study, the authors reviewed domestic and foreign literatures, conducted the textual research on origin and development of Cassia Semen, studied records in ancient books and ancient and modern literatures, clinical adverse reactions and relevant experimental studies in recent years, and summarized the clinical features and influencing factors related to the safety of Cassiae Semen. According to the findings,Cassia Semen's safety risks are mainly liver and kidney system damages, with the main clinical features of fatigue, anorexia, disgusting of oil, yellow urine and gray stool; digestive system injury, with the main clinical features of diarrhea, abdominal distension, nausea and loose stool; reproductive system damage, with the main clinical features of vaginal bleeding. Allergic reactions and clinical adverse events, with the main clinical features for numb mouth, itching skin, nausea and vomiting, diarrhea, wheezing and lip cyanosis were also reported. The toxicological studies on toxic components of Cassiae Semen obtusifolia were carried out through acute toxicity test, subacute toxicity test, subchronic toxicity test and chronic toxicity test. Risk factors might include patients, compatibility and physicians. Physicians should strictly abide by the medication requirements in the Pharmacopoeia, pay attention to rational compatibility, appropriate dosage,correct usage and appropriate processing, control the dosage below 15 g to avoid excessive intake, strictly control the course of treatment to avoid accumulated poisoning caused by long-term administration. At the same time, clinicians should pay attention to the latest research progress, update the knowledge structure, quickly find the latest and useful materials from clinical practice, scientific research and drug information and other literatures, make evaluation and judgment for the materials, establish a traditional Chinese medicine intelligence information library, and strengthen the control over

Case-control study of anthropometric measures and testicular cancer risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabrizio eGiannandrea

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The etiology of testicular germ cell tumors (TGCTs is poorly understood. Recent epidemiological findings suggest that TGCT risk is determined very early in life, although the available data are still conflicting. The rapid growth of the testes during puberty may be another period of vulnerability. Body size has received increasing attention as possible risk factor for TC. To clarify the relation of body size and its anthropometric variables to TGCT risk, the authors analyzed data from 272 cases and 382 controls with regard to height (cm, weight (Kg and body mass index (BMI; kg/m2. Overall, participants in the highest quartile of height were more likely to be diagnosed with TGCTs than participants in the lowest quartile of height, OR 2.22 (95% confidence intervals (CI: 1.25-3.93; adjusted; ptrend = 0.033. Moreover, histological seminoma subgroup was significantly associated with tallness, very tall men (>182 cm having a seminoma TGCT risk of OR=2.44 (95% confidence intervals (CI: 1.19-4.97; adjusted; ptrend = 0.011. There was also a significant inverse association of TGCT with increasing BMI (ptrend = 0.001; age-adjusted analysis and this association was equally present in both histological subgroups. These preliminary results indicate that testicular cancer is inversely associated with BMI and positively associated with height, in particular with seminoma subtype. Several studies have reported similar findings on body size. As adult height is largely determined by high-calorie intake in childhood and influenced by hormonal factors at puberty, increased attention to postnatal exposures in this interval may help elucidate the etiology of TGCTs.

Liver stiffness measured by magnetic resonance elastography as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma: a preliminary case-control study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Motosugi, Utaroh; Ichikawa, Tomoaki; Koshiishi, Tsuyota; Sano, Katsuhiro; Morisaka, Hiroyuki; Ichikawa, Shintaro; Araki, Tsutomu [University of Yamanashi, Department of Radiology, Yamanashi-ken (Japan); Enomoto, Nobuyuki [University of Yamanashi, 1st Department of Internal Medicine, Yamanashi (Japan); Matsuda, Masanori; Fujii, Hideki [University of Yamanashi, 1st Department of Surgery, Yamanashi (Japan)

2013-01-15

To examine if liver stiffness measured by magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic liver disease. By reviewing the records of magnetic resonance (MR) examinations performed at our institution, we selected 301 patients with chronic liver disease who did not have a previous medical history of HCC. All patients underwent MRE and gadoxetic acid-enhanced MR imaging. HCC was identified on MR images in 66 of the 301 patients, who were matched to controls from the remaining patients without HCC according to age. MRE images were obtained by visualising elastic waves generated in the liver by pneumatic vibration transferred via a cylindrical passive driver. Risk factors of HCC development were determined by the odds ratio with logistic regression analysis; gender and liver stiffness by MRE and serum levels of aspartate transferase, alanine transferase, alpha-fetoprotein, and protein induced by vitamin K absence-II. Multivariate analysis revealed that only liver stiffness by MRE was a significant risk factor for HCC with an odds ratio (95 % confidence interval) of 1.38 (1.05-1.84). Liver stiffness measured by MRE is an independent risk factor for HCC in patients with chronic liver disease. (orig.)

Risk measurement with equivalent utility principles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Denuit, M.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.

2006-01-01

Risk measures have been studied for several decades in the actuarial literature, where they appeared under the guise of premium calculation principles. Risk measures and properties that risk measures should satisfy have recently received considerable attention in the financial mathematics

Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

2006-03-01

For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

Modelling the ability of source control measures to reduce inundation risk in a community-scale urban drainage system

Science.gov (United States)

Mei, Chao; Liu, Jiahong; Wang, Hao; Shao, Weiwei; Xia, Lin; Xiang, Chenyao; Zhou, Jinjun

2018-06-01

Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers, in the context of rapid urbanization and climate change worldwide. In recent years, source control measures (SCMs) such as green roofs, permeable pavements, rain gardens, and vegetative swales have been implemented to address flood inundation in urban settings, and proven to be cost-effective and sustainable. In order to investigate the ability of SCMs on reducing inundation in a community-scale urban drainage system, a dynamic rainfall-runoff model of a community-scale urban drainage system was developed based on SWMM. SCMs implementing scenarios were modelled under six design rainstorm events with return period ranging from 2 to 100 years, and inundation risks of the drainage system were evaluated before and after the proposed implementation of SCMs, with a risk-evaluation method based on SWMM and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Results show that, SCMs implementation resulting in significantly reduction of hydrological indexes that related to inundation risks, range of reduction rates of average flow, peak flow, and total flooded volume of the drainage system were 28.1-72.1, 19.0-69.2, and 33.9-56.0 %, respectively, under six rainfall events with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years. Corresponding, the inundation risks of the drainage system were significantly reduced after SCMs implementation, the risk values falling below 0.2 when the rainfall return period was less than 10 years. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of SCMs on mitigating inundation, and quantified the potential of SCMs on reducing inundation risks in the urban drainage system, which provided scientific references for implementing SCMs for inundation control of the study area.

CEA - Risk control report 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verwaerde, Daniel; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

2015-06-01

After introductory presentations by CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: environment protection and control, facilities safety, health and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, sites protection, installations and assets, emergency response, legal risk management, internal inspections and audits. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk control sector, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

Application of Risk Management for Control and Monitoring Systems

CERN Document Server

Grau, S; Balda, F; Chouvelon, A

2001-01-01

This paper presents an application of the state of the art and new trends for risk management of safety-related control and monitoring systems, currently applied in the industry. These techniques not only enable to manage safety and reliability issues but they also help in the control of quality and economic factors affected by the availability and maintenance of the system. The method includes an unambiguous definition of the system in terms of functions and a systematic analysis of hazardous situations, undesired events and possible malfunctions. It also includes the identification and quantification of the risk associated to the system. The required risk reduction is specified in terms of safety integrity levels. The safety integrity level results in requirements, preventive measures, possible improvements and recommendations to assure the satisfactory management of the risk.

Study on the evaluation system for the coal safety management based on risk pre-control

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LI Xin-chun; XU Hai-xia; WANG Pei; SONG Xue-feng

2009-01-01

The new type of risk management is process management.First,the hazard sources are identified before coal mine accidents occur,and then the pre-control measure and information monitoring method based on classifying the hidden hazard sources are given.Lastly,the risk pre-alarm and risk control method are confirmed,the management standard and management measure are used to eliminate the hidden hazard sources.In this study,an evaluation system is built to evaluate the result of risk management.

Measuring Producers' Risk Preferences: A Global Risk Attitude Construct

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

2001-01-01

In applied agricultural economic research various risk-attitude elicitation techniques are used. Here, we investigate whether risk-attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to measures rooted in the multi-item scale framework. Using a second-order factor analytical

Objectively Measured Sedentary Time and Cardiovascular Risk Factor Control in US Hispanics/Latinos With Diabetes Mellitus: Results From the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL).

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xueyin; Strizich, Garrett; Hua, Simin; Sotres-Alvarez, Daniela; Buelna, Christina; Gallo, Linda C; Gellman, Marc D; Mossavar-Rahmani, Yasmin; O'Brien, Matthew J; Stoutenberg, Mark; Wang, Tao; Avilés-Santa, M Larissa; Kaplan, Robert C; Qi, Qibin

2017-05-25

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor control is a cornerstone of diabetes mellitus management. Little is known about relationships of objectively measured sedentary time and physical activity with major CVD risk factor control in individuals with diabetes mellitus. We examined associations of objectively measured sedentary time and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity with reaching major CVD risk factor control goals among US Hispanic/Latino adults with diabetes mellitus. This cross-sectional analysis included 1699 participants with diabetes mellitus from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (2008-2011). Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of meeting the following 5 major CVD risk factor control goals: hemoglobin A 1c 40/50 mg/dL for men/women. After adjustment for covariates including moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, less sedentary time was associated with increased odds of reaching hemoglobin A 1c (OR=1.76 [95% CI: 1.10, 2.82]) and triglyceride control goals (OR=2.16 [1.36, 3.46]), and reaching ≥3 CVD risk factor control goals (OR=2.08 [1.34, 3.23]) (all ORs for comparisons of extreme tertiles of sedentary time). Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity was not associated with reaching any CVD risk factor control goals. Substituting 60-min/day of sedentary time with light-intensity physical activity was associated with increased odds of reaching hemoglobin A 1c (OR=1.18 [1.04, 1.35]), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR=1.17 [1.04, 1.32]), and triglyceride (OR=1.20 [1.05, 1.36]) control goals. Among US Hispanic/Latino adults with diabetes mellitus, less sedentary time, but not moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, was associated with improved CVD risk factor control, specifically in reaching hemoglobin A 1c and triglyceride control goals. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vona Mate

2014-07-01

Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

The use of risk indicators for establishing inspection and control priorities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alzbutas, R.; Klimasauskas, A.; Nedzinskas, L.

2003-01-01

Risk-informed approach used to support decision-making related to in-service inspections was considered in order to identify ways for establishing inspection and control priorities. The in-service inspection of piping in the Ignalina NPP has been selected as the object for research application, The inspection process studied was modelled using the integration of deterministic and probabilistic analysis methods, In order to optimize the inspection process, the focus was set on the highest risk measured as the conditional core damage frequency, It was produced by quantitatively estimated probabilities of different degradation states and conditional failure consequence probabilities, Comprehensive databases for calculation of such indicators (measures) were collected and analyzed, The failure statistical analysis as well as the evaluation of inspection efficiency expressed by the probability of defect detection was also used, The databases were further investigated with a closer attention to the data variation and comparison of risk measures using the developed software, The developed software was used to perform and administrate all the risk evaluations and ensure the possibilities to compare different options and perform sensitivity analysis, The risk measures helped to define an adequate inspection program and to focus inspections on the more important locations of the study systems, This approach allowed an optimisation of the inspection program while the probabilistic and fundamental deterministic safety requirements were maintained, The approaches to define an acceptable level of the inspection program were also considered. These approaches to define an acceptable risk were considered together with the means to reduce the number of inspection sites and the cumulative radiation exposure to the NPP inspection personnel with a reduction of overall risk, The investigated issues provided a good basis for drawing conclusions about the inspection priorities, to

Offset Risk Minimization for Open-loop Optimal Control of Oil Reservoirs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Capolei, Andrea; Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Jørgensen, J. B.

2017-01-01

Simulation studies of oil field water flooding have demonstrated a significant potential of optimal control technology to improve industrial practices. However, real-life applications are challenged by unknown geological factors that make reservoir models highly uncertain. To minimize...... the associated financial risks, the oil literature has used ensemble-based methods to manipulate the net present value (NPV) distribution by optimizing sample estimated risk measures. In general, such methods successfully reduce overall risk. However, as this paper demonstrates, ensemble-based control strategies...... practices. The results suggest that it may be more relevant to consider the NPV offset distribution than the NPV distribution when minimizing risk in production optimization....

Measuring Normative Risk Preferences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G.A.G. Alserda (Gosse)

2017-01-01

textabstractThe results of eliciting risk preferences depend on the elicitation method. Different methods of measuring the same variable tend to produce different results. This raises the question whether normative risk preferences can be elicited at all. Using two types of manipulation, I assess

Legacy Risk Measure for Environmental Waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eide, S. A.; Nitschke, R. L.

2002-01-01

The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is investigating the development of a comprehensive and quantitative risk model framework for environmental management activities at the site. Included are waste management programs (high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, mixed low-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, and special nuclear materials), major environmental restoration efforts, major decontamination and decommissioning projects, and planned long-term stewardship activities. Two basic types of risk estimates are included: risks from environmental management activities, and long-term legacy risks from wastes/materials. Both types of risks are estimated using the Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) developed at the INEEL. Given these two types of risk calculations, the following evaluations can be performed: risk evaluation of an entire program (covering waste/material as it now exists through disposal or other e nd states); risk comparisons of alternative programs or activities; comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost for activities or entire programs; ranking of programs or activities by risk; ranking of wastes/materials by risk; evaluation of site risk changes with time as activities progress; and integrated performance measurement using indicators such as injury/death and exposure rates. This paper discusses the definition and calculation of legacy risk measures and associated issues. The legacy risk measure is needed to support three of the seven types of evaluations listed above: comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost, ranking of wastes/materials by risk, and evaluation of site risk changes with time

Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

2003-01-01

The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

Decision principles derived from risk measures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

2010-01-01

In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

Risk and reliability allocation to risk control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vojnovic, D.; Kozuh, M.

1992-01-01

The risk allocation procedure is used as an analytical model to support the optimal decision making for reliability/availability improvement planning. Both levels of decision criteria, the plant risk measures and plant performance indices, are used in risk allocation procedure. Decision support system uses the multi objective decision making concept. (author) [sl

Drug and alcohol crash risk : a case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-01

This study used a case-control design to estimate the risk of crashes involving drivers using drugs, alcohol or both. Data was collected in Virginia Beach, Virginia, for 20 months. The study obtained biological measures on more than 3,000 crash...

Automated and Clinical Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System Density Measures Predict Risk for Screen-Detected and Interval Cancers: A Case-Control Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kerlikowske, Karla; Scott, Christopher G; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir P; Ma, Lin; Winham, Stacey; Jensen, Matthew R; Wu, Fang Fang; Malkov, Serghei; Pankratz, V Shane; Cummings, Steven R; Shepherd, John A; Brandt, Kathleen R; Miglioretti, Diana L; Vachon, Celine M

2018-06-05

In 30 states, women who have had screening mammography are informed of their breast density on the basis of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) density categories estimated subjectively by radiologists. Variation in these clinical categories across and within radiologists has led to discussion about whether automated BI-RADS density should be reported instead. To determine whether breast cancer risk and detection are similar for automated and clinical BI-RADS density measures. Case-control. San Francisco Mammography Registry and Mayo Clinic. 1609 women with screen-detected cancer, 351 women with interval invasive cancer, and 4409 matched control participants. Automated and clinical BI-RADS density assessed on digital mammography at 2 time points from September 2006 to October 2014, interval and screen-detected breast cancer risk, and mammography sensitivity. Of women whose breast density was categorized by automated BI-RADS more than 6 months to 5 years before diagnosis, those with extremely dense breasts had a 5.65-fold higher interval cancer risk (95% CI, 3.33 to 9.60) and a 1.43-fold higher screen-detected risk (CI, 1.14 to 1.79) than those with scattered fibroglandular densities. Associations of interval and screen-detected cancer with clinical BI-RADS density were similar to those with automated BI-RADS density, regardless of whether density was measured more than 6 months to less than 2 years or 2 to 5 years before diagnosis. Automated and clinical BI-RADS density measures had similar discriminatory accuracy, which was higher for interval than screen-detected cancer (c-statistics: 0.70 vs. 0.62 [P automated and clinical BI-RADS categories: fatty, 93% versus 92%; scattered fibroglandular densities, 90% versus 90%; heterogeneously dense, 82% versus 78%; and extremely dense, 63% versus 64%, respectively. Neither automated nor clinical BI-RADS density was assessed on tomosynthesis, an emerging breast screening method. Automated and clinical BI

Measures of risk importance and their applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.; Denning, R.S.; Saltos, N.

1983-07-01

This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied

The effect of hemodialysis on balance measurements and risk of fall.

Science.gov (United States)

Erken, Ertugrul; Ozelsancak, Ruya; Sahin, Safak; Yılmaz, Emine Ece; Torun, Dilek; Leblebici, Berrin; Kuyucu, Yunus Emre; Sezer, Siren

2016-10-01

Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have increased risk of falls and fall-related complications. Other than aging and factors related to chronic kidney disease, treatment of hemodialysis may also contribute to this increased risk. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the impairment of balance after a session of hemodialysis with a quantitative assessment and reveal an increased fall risk that would possibly be related to treatment of hemodialysis for patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Fifty-six patients with ESRD on chronic hemodialysis program and 53 healthy individuals were involved in this study. Fall Index percentages were calculated, and fall risk categories were determined for all patients and healthy controls using Tetrax posturography device (Sunlight Medical Ltd Israel). The patient group was evaluated twice for balance, before and after a routine session of hemodialysis. Fall Index scores of healthy controls were lower than that of ESRD patients (p = 0.001). In the patient group, we found the mean Fall Index to be significantly higher at the post-dialysis assessment compared to the pre-dialysis assessment (p = 0.003). The number of patients with high risk of falling also increased at the post-dialysis assessment yet the difference did not reach significance. Fall Index was correlated with the increase in age only at the pre-dialysis balance measurement (p = 0.038). Patients with better dialysis adequacy had significantly lower Fall Index scores than the others at the pre-dialysis balance measurement (p = 0.004). The difference was not significant at the post-dialysis measurement. In the current study, we evaluated the balance of ESRD patients before and after a routine session of hemodialysis treatment. This is the first study to investigate the effect of hemodialysis on balance, using an electronic posturographic balance system. We found the Fall Index score to be significantly higher after hemodialysis, indicating a negative

Foot length measurements of newborns of high and low risk pregnancies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Karina Marques Salge

Full Text Available Abstract OBJECTIVE Comparing foot length measurements of newborns in high and low risk pregnancies at a public hospital in Goiânia, GO, Brazil. METHOD A cross-sectional study carried out between April, 2013 and May, 2015, with a sample consisting of 180 newborns; 106 infants of women from high-risk pregnancies and 74 of women from low-risk pregnancies. Data were descriptively analyzed. Foot length measurement was performed using a stiff transparent plastic ruler, graduated in millimeters. The length of both feet was measured from the tip of the hallux (big toe to the end of the heel. RESULTS A statistically significant relationship was found between the foot length and newborn’s weight, between the cephalic and thoracic perimeters in the high-risk group and between the cephalic perimeter in the control group. CONCLUSION There is a need for creating cut-off points to identify newborns with intrauterine growth disorders using foot length.

Randomized Controlled Trial of an Educational Intervention Using an Online Risk Calculator for Knee Osteoarthritis: Effect on Risk Perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Losina, Elena; Michl, Griffin L; Smith, Karen C; Katz, Jeffrey N

2017-08-01

Young adults, in general, are not aware of their risk of knee osteoarthritis (OA). Understanding risk and risk factors is critical to knee OA prevention. We tested the efficacy of a personalized risk calculator on accuracy of knee OA risk perception and willingness to change behaviors associated with knee OA risk factors. We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 375 subjects recruited using Amazon Mechanical Turk. Subjects were randomized to either use a personalized risk calculator based on demographic and risk-factor information (intervention), or to view general OA risk information (control). At baseline and after the intervention, subjects estimated their 10-year and lifetime risk of knee OA and responded to contemplation ladders measuring willingness to change diet, exercise, or weight-control behaviors. Subjects in both arms had an estimated 3.6% 10-year and 25.3% lifetime chance of developing symptomatic knee OA. Both arms greatly overestimated knee OA risk at baseline, estimating a 10-year risk of 26.1% and a lifetime risk of 47.8%. After the intervention, risk calculator subjects' perceived 10-year risk decreased by 12.9 percentage points to 12.5% and perceived lifetime risk decreased by 19.5 percentage points to 28.1%. Control subjects' perceived risks remained unchanged. Risk calculator subjects were more likely to move to an action stage on the exercise contemplation ladder (relative risk 2.1). There was no difference between the groups for diet or weight-control ladders. The risk calculator is a useful intervention for knee OA education and may motivate some exercise-related behavioral change. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

Healthcare workers' challenges in the implementation of tuberculosis infection prevention and control measures in Mozambique.

Science.gov (United States)

Brouwer, Miranda; Coelho, Eliana; Mosse, Carla das Dores; Brondi, Luciana; Winterton, Laura; van Leth, Frank

2014-01-01

Healthcare Workers (HCWs) have a higher frequency of TB exposure than the general population and have therefore an occupational TB risk that infection prevention and control (IPC) measures aim to reduce. HCWs are crucial in the implementation of these measures. The objective of the study was to investigate Mozambican HCWs' perceptions of their occupational TB risk and the measures they report using to reduce this risk. In addition, we explored the challenges HCWs encounter while using these TBIPC measures. Focus group discussion. Analysis according content method. Four categories of HCWs: auxiliary workers, medical (doctors and clinical officers), nurses and TB program staff. HCWs are aware of their occupational TB risk and use various measures to reduce their risk of infection. HCWs find it challenging to employ measures that minimize such risks and a lack of clear guidelines contributes to these challenges. HCWs' and patient behavior further complicate the use of TBIPC measures. HCWs in Mozambique perceive a high occupational risk of TB infection. They report several challenges using measures to reduce this risk such as shortage of material, lack of clear guidelines, insufficient motivation and inadequate training. Robust training with motivational approaches, alongside supervision and support for HCWs could improve implementation of TBIPC measures. Healthcare management should address the areas for improvement that are beyond the individual HCW's control.

Use of the Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique can lead to more robust risk control options.

Science.gov (United States)

Card, Alan J; Simsekler, Mecit Can Emre; Clark, Michael; Ward, James R; Clarkson, P John

2014-01-01

Risk assessment is widely used to improve patient safety, but healthcare workers are not trained to design robust solutions to the risks they uncover. This leads to an overreliance on the weakest category of risk control recommendations: administrative controls. Increasing the proportion of non-administrative risk control options (NARCOs) generated would enable (though not ensure) the adoption of more robust solutions. Experimentally assess a method for generating stronger risk controls: The Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique. Participants generated risk control options in response to two patient safety scenarios. Scenario 1 (baseline): All participants used current practice (unstructured brainstorming). Scenario 2: Control group used current practice; intervention group used the GO-ARC Technique. To control for individual differences between participants, analysis focused on the change in the proportion of NARCOs for each group. Proportion of NARCOs decreased from 0.18 at baseline to 0.12. Intervention group: Proportion increased from 0.10 at baseline to 0.29 using the GO-ARC Technique. Results were statistically significant. There was no decrease in the number of administrative controls generated by the intervention group. The Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique appears to lead to more robust risk control options.

Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.

2013-01-01

We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk are special cases of φ-coherent and φ-convex measures of risk. Contrary to the classical use of coherent and convex

Measuring Systemic Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

Measurement control program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1981-01-01

A measurement control program for the model plant is described. The discussion includes the technical basis for such a program, the application of measurement control principles to each measurement, and the use of special experiments to estimate measurement error parameters for difficult-to-measure materials. The discussion also describes the statistical aspects of the program, and the documentation procedures used to record, maintain, and process the basic data. The purpose of the session is to enable participants to: (1) understand the criteria for this type of a measurement control program; (2) understand the kinds of physical standards required for the various measurement processes, e.g., weighing, analytical, NDA; (3) understand the need for and importance of a measurement control program; (4) understand the need for special experiments to provide an improved basis for the measurement of difficult-to-measure materials; (5) understand the general scope of the program's statistical aspects; and (6) understand the basis and scope of the documentation procedures

CONTINGENCIES FOR MEASUREMENT OF THE CREDIT RISK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marinela BARBULESCU

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Global Financial Crisis, which affected various banks, some of them very important banks, highlighted the importance of an accurate credit risk measurement in order to be able to overcome it. There are a variety of such credit risk measurement models, so we can say that banks face a real dilemma when having to choose the most appropriate one. The aim of this paper is to examine the most popular methods used to measure the credit risk and to identify the strengths and the weaknesses of each one of it. The research was accomplished from a double perspective, in which the conceptual methodological approach is correlated to a variety of references to practical actions aiming the measurement and the prevention of credit risk. The study includes the presentation of the objectives of credit risk analysis, the most appropriate moments for doing such an analysis, the steps that have to be done in order to measure the credit risk, the errors that can overcome in the credit risk measurement system, generated by the misclassifications of the studied company, and the presentation of the specific information of financial creditors. The findings expressed in this paper were mainly the result of a qualitative analysis which showed that there is no best model for credit risk measurement, each one having both strengths and weaknesses, some providing a comprehensive analysis of the individual customer’s financial strength others allowing banks permanently monitor fluctuating default risk and identify the possibly problems at an early stage.

Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior: A Longitudinal TRAILS Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

2017-01-01

Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this study we tested whether the imbalance between behavioral control and reward sensitivity underlies risk taking behavior in adolescence, using a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 715 adolescents, of which 66% revealed an increased risk for mental health problems. To assess behavioral control at age 11 we used both self-report (effortful control) as well as behavioral measures of cognitive control (i.e., working memory and response inhibition). Reward sensitivity was assessed with the Bangor Gambling Task. The main finding of this study was that effortful control at age 11 was the best predictor of risk taking behavior (alcohol and cannabis use) at age 16, particularly among adolescents who were more reward sensitive. Risk taking behavior in adolescents might be explained by relatively weak behavioral control functioning combined with high sensitivity for reward.

Developing risk management dashboards using risk and quality measures: A visual best practices approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Bunting, Robert F; Siegal, Dana

2017-10-01

Because quality measures are ubiquitous, health care risk management leaders often use them as a proxy for risk management measures. While certain quality measures adequately reflect some aspects of risk management, they are neither a perfect nor complete substitute for well-developed and comprehensive risk management measures. Using a comprehensive approach consisting of quality measures, risk measures, and measures that are less amenable to classification would be the best approach. Identifying the most powerful and informative measures, designing the most appropriate dashboards, and incorporating visual best practices are crucial steps required for evaluating the effectiveness and value of an enterprise risk management program. The authors explain the terms and concepts, review the measures available in the literature, propose new measures, discuss visual best practices, and provide sample dashboard components. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Examining Measures of Weight as Risk Factors for Sport-Related Injury in Adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah A. Richmond

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. To examine body mass index (BMI and waist circumference (WC as risk factors for sport injury in adolescents. Design. A secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial. Methods. Adolescents (n=1,040 at the ages of 11–15 years from two Calgary junior high schools were included. BMI (kg/m2 and WC (cm were measured from direct measures at baseline assessment. Categories (overweight/obese were created using validated international (BMI and national (WC cut-off points. A Poisson regression analysis controlling for relevant covariates (sex, previous injury, sport participation, intervention group, and aerobic fitness level estimated the risk of sport injury [incidence rate ratios (IRR with 95% confidence intervals (CI]. Results. There was an increased risk of time loss injury (IRR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.01–8.04 and knee injury (IRR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.00–6.94 in adolescents that were overweight/obese; however, increases in injury risk for all injury and lower extremity injury were not statistically significant. Estimates suggested a greater risk of time loss injury [IRR = 1.63 (95% CI: 0.93–2.47] in adolescents with high measures of WC. Conclusions. There is an increased risk of time loss injury and knee injury in overweight/obese adolescents. Sport injury prevention training programs should include strategies that target all known risk factors for injury.

Risk Metrics and Measures for an Extended PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wielenberg, A.; Loeffler, H.; Hasnaoui, C.; Burgazzi, L.; Cazzoli, E.; Jan, P.; La Rovere, S.; Siklossy, T.; Vitazkova, J.; Raimond, E.

2016-01-01

This report provides a review of the main used risk measures for Level 1 and Level 2 PSA. It depicts their advantages, limitations and disadvantages and develops some more precise risk measures relevant for extended PSAs and helpful for decision-making. This report does not recommend or suggest any quantitative value for the risk measures. It does not discuss in details decision-making based on PSA results neither. The choice of one appropriate risk measure or a set of risk measures depends on the decision making approach as well as on the issue to be decided. The general approach for decision making aims at a multi-attribute approach. This can include the use of several risk measures as appropriate. Section 5 provides some recommendations on the main risk metrics to be used for an extended PSA. For Level 1 PSA, Fuel Damage Frequency and Radionuclide Mobilization Frequency are recommended. For Level 2 PSA, the characterization of loss of containment function and a total risk measure based on the aggregated activity releases of all sequences rated by their frequencies is proposed. (authors)

Measuring Systemic Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heje Pedersen, Lasse

We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

Tychastic measure of viability risk

CERN Document Server

Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

2014-01-01

This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

A mathematical foundation for controlling radiation health risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumazawa, S.

2000-01-01

Radiation protection is to attain an adequate control of radiation health risk compared with other risks. Our society in the 21 st century is predicted by some experts to seek the high priority of safety for expanding activity of human beings. The law of controlling risks will be a key subject to serve the safety of human beings and their environment. The main principles of the ICRP system of radiological system are strongly relating to the general law of various risk controls. The individual-based protection concept clearly gives us a mathematical model of controlling risks in general. This paper discusses the simplest formulation of controlling risks in the ICRP system, including other relating systems. First, the basic characteristics of occupational exposure as a risk control is presented by analyzing the data compiled over half a century. It shows the relation ship between dose control levels and individually controlled doses. The individual-based control also exerts some influence on the resultant collective dose. The study of occupational exposure concludes the simple mathematical expression of controlling doses under the ICRP system as shown by Kumazawa and Numakunai. Second, the typical characteristics of biological effects with repair or recovery of bio-systems are given by analyzing the data published. Those show the relationship between dose and biologically controlled or regulated response. The bio-system is undoubtedly relating to cybernetics that contains many functions of controlling risks. Consequently radiation effects might somewhat express the feature of biological risk controls. The shouldered survival of irradiated cells shows cybernetic characteristics that are assumed to be the mathematical foundation of controlling risks. The dose-response relationship shows another type of cybernetic characteristics, which could be reduced to the same basic form of controlling risks. The limited study of radiation effects definitely confirms the two

The role of oral physiciand inpredicting the risk of obstructive sleep apnea: A case-control study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lavanya, Reddy; Babu, Dara Balaji Gandhi; Chavva, Sunandha; Boringi, Mamatha; Waghray, Shefali; Yeladandi, Mounica

2016-01-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common medical disorder with serious complications if untreated. Dentists play a vital role in the early diagnosis of this condition, thereby improving patients' prognoses. The purpose of this study was to identify patients with a high risk of OSA using simple cephalometric measurements in patients receiving routine dental care. The present study was conducted on 206 patients divided into a high-risk group and a control group after answering the Berlin questionnaire. Cephalometric analysis of a digital cephalogram was performed to measure the upper airway diameter (UAD) and mandibular-to-hyoid bone distance (MP-H) by 2 observers at 2 different times. Among 206 patients, 93 (45%) were included in the high-risk group and 113 (55%) were in the control group. No significant difference was present between the groups with regard to gender, and the patients ranged in age from 18 to 65 years. The UAD measurements in the high-risk group were significantly lower than in the control group, and the MP-H measurements were significantly higher in the high-risk group than in the control group. The UAD was lower in middle-aged patients in both groups. Our study found that the UAD was lower in individuals with a high risk of OSA. Also, we found that middle-aged individuals of both genders were more likely to develop OSA. Dentists play a vital role in diagnosing patients at a high risk for OSA via thorough clinical examinations, risk factor analyses, and simple cephalometric analyses

The role of oral physiciand inpredicting the risk of obstructive sleep apnea: A case-control study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavanya, Reddy; Babu, Dara Balaji Gandhi; Chavva, Sunandha; Boringi, Mamatha; Waghray, Shefali; Yeladandi, Mounica [Dept. of Oral Medicine and Radiology, Panineeya Institute of Dental Sciences and Research Centre, Hyderabad (India)

2016-09-15

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common medical disorder with serious complications if untreated. Dentists play a vital role in the early diagnosis of this condition, thereby improving patients' prognoses. The purpose of this study was to identify patients with a high risk of OSA using simple cephalometric measurements in patients receiving routine dental care. The present study was conducted on 206 patients divided into a high-risk group and a control group after answering the Berlin questionnaire. Cephalometric analysis of a digital cephalogram was performed to measure the upper airway diameter (UAD) and mandibular-to-hyoid bone distance (MP-H) by 2 observers at 2 different times. Among 206 patients, 93 (45%) were included in the high-risk group and 113 (55%) were in the control group. No significant difference was present between the groups with regard to gender, and the patients ranged in age from 18 to 65 years. The UAD measurements in the high-risk group were significantly lower than in the control group, and the MP-H measurements were significantly higher in the high-risk group than in the control group. The UAD was lower in middle-aged patients in both groups. Our study found that the UAD was lower in individuals with a high risk of OSA. Also, we found that middle-aged individuals of both genders were more likely to develop OSA. Dentists play a vital role in diagnosing patients at a high risk for OSA via thorough clinical examinations, risk factor analyses, and simple cephalometric analyses.

Risk indicators as a tool for risk control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oien, K.

2001-01-01

This paper presents a general methodology for the establishment of risk indicators that can be used as a tool for risk control during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The risk indicators established are based on the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). The general methodology is evaluated against comparable approaches both in offshore and nuclear industry. There are two distinct features of this methodology. The first is that it is truly risk-based with the intention of covering the total risk picture. The second is that the identification of the risk factors contributing most to the total risk is based on realistic changes of each factor assessed by the platform personnel, not a theoretically assumed change. The set of risk indicators for one specific installation is presented along with test results

Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Long, K. R.

2009-12-01

Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

1989-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

Nuclear safety risk control in the outage of CANDU unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Mingliang; Zheng Jianhua

2014-01-01

Nuclear fuel remains in the core during the outage of CANDU unit, but there are still nuclear safety risks such as reactor accidental criticality, fuel element failure due to inability to properly remove residual heat. Furthermore, these risks are aggravated by the weakening plant system configuration and multiple cross operations during the outage. This paper analyzes the phases where there are potential nuclear safety risks on the basis of the typical critical path arrangement of the outage of Qinshan NPP 3 and introduces a series of CANDU-specific risk control measures taken during the past plant outages to ensure nuclear safety during the unit outage. (authors)

Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.A.

2011-01-01

We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. We prove that convex, entropy convex and entropy coherent measures of risk emerge as certainty equivalents under variational, homothetic and multiple priors preferences,

Mapping the receptivity of malaria risk to plan the future of control in Somalia

Science.gov (United States)

Alegana, Victor Adagi; Patil, Anand Prabhakar; Moloney, Grainne; Borle, Mohammed; Yusuf, Fahmi; Amran, Jamal; Snow, Robert William

2012-01-01

Objectives To measure the receptive risks of malaria in Somalia and compare decisions on intervention scale-up based on this map and the more widely used contemporary risk maps. Design Cross-sectional community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data for the period 2007–2010 corrected to a standard age range of 2 to Somalia. Participants Randomly sampled individuals of all ages. Main outcome measure Cartographic descriptions of malaria receptivity and contemporary risks in Somalia at the district level. Results The contemporary annual PfPR2–10 map estimated that all districts (n=74) and population (n=8.4 million) in Somalia were under hypoendemic transmission (≤10% PfPR2–10). Of these, 23% of the districts, home to 13% of the population, were under transmission of 10%–50% PfPR2–10) and the rest as hypoendemic. Conclusion Compared with maps of receptive risks, contemporary maps of transmission mask disparities of malaria risk necessary to prioritise and sustain future control. As malaria risk declines across Africa, efforts must be invested in measuring receptivity for efficient control planning. PMID:22855625

Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

1991-01-01

A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tyrväinen, T.

2013-01-01

This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

Balance 2003 of the risks control at the Cea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-07-01

As a research center on the energy, the information and health technologies and the defense, the Cea activities are indissociable from the risk control notion. To organize the risks management, the Cea decided to create in july 2003 a special pole of risks control and management. This presentation is based on some major topics of the risks control: the environmental impact control, the occupational risks control, the installations safety control and the hazardous matter transport control. (A.L.B.)

Use of the Asthma Control Questionnaire to predict future risk of asthma exacerbation.

Science.gov (United States)

Meltzer, Eli O; Busse, William W; Wenzel, Sally E; Belozeroff, Vasily; Weng, Haoling H; Feng, JingYuan; Chon, Yun; Chiou, Chiun-Fang; Globe, Denise; Lin, Shao-Lee

2011-01-01

Direct correlation of assessments of a validated composite measure such as the Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) and risk of exacerbation has not been previously demonstrated in a randomized controlled trial. To evaluate the ability of the ACQ score over time to predict risk of a future asthma exacerbation. This analysis included data from a 12-week placebo-controlled trial (N = 292) of AMG 317, an IL-4 receptor α antagonist, in patients with moderate to severe atopic asthma. At baseline, patients had an ACQ score ≥1.5. Exacerbations were defined as requirement for systemic corticosteroids. A Cox proportional hazards model was used, with ACQ score as the time-dependent covariate. The analysis was repeated for individual components of the ACQ. Each 1-point increase in ACQ was associated with a 50% increased risk of exacerbation (hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.03-2.20) for the following 2-week period. Evaluation of individual ACQ components also demonstrated a similar trend, though each to a lesser degree than the full composite ACQ. Although based on a retrospective analysis, with small number of exacerbations, these findings support the utility of the composite ACQ score measurement to predict risk of future exacerbation in clinical trials and clinical practice. The composite ACQ score measurement was found to be a better predictor of future risk than individual ACQ components. Copyright © 2010 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Application and inspiration of risk control in dose control in Fukushima nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Shaoqing; Chen Yan; Chai Jianshe; Zhang Chunming

2013-01-01

The article introduced the basic concept of risk and risk control methods. Using the risk control methods, we analyzed and evaluated the actions to control dose of public and occupational radiation exposure in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident, especially found out the weak points of these actions, and finally discussed the application of the risk control methods in dose management during nuclear accidents. (authors)

The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Garsztka Przemysław

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

Risk measures in practical use: risk reduction has its price, but is it known?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reinertsen, Rune

1995-01-01

Different risk measures are discussed in order to decide which to use to best express the risk workers are exposed to. A new risk measure is introduced and advantages and disadvantages are presented. The need for a new risk measure (Expected Number of Fatalities Rate ENFR), is discussed and explained with the help of an example. The example also contains a comparison with the well-known FAR-value. Also some problems and benefits of introducing a measure of the kind: ΔRISK/Δ$ are discussed and conclusions made. The question of what amount of money should be used on risk reducing activities is also addressed

Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

Controlling operational risk: Concepts and practices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Tillaart, A.H.A.J.

2003-01-01

The subject of this thesis is controlling 'operational risk' in banks. Operational risk is defined as the risk of losses resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people, systems, or from external events. Within this very broad subject, we focus on the place of operational risk

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

1990-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

1989-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

2018-06-01

This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

Cascade reservoir flood control operation based on risk grading and warning in the Upper Yellow River

Science.gov (United States)

Xuejiao, M.; Chang, J.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Flood risk reduction with non-engineering measures has become the main idea for flood management. It is more effective for flood risk management to take various non-engineering measures. In this paper, a flood control operation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River was proposed to lower the flood risk of the water system with multi-reservoir by combining the reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) and flood early warning together. Specifically, a discharge control chart was employed to build the joint RFCO simulation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River. And entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to establish a multi-factorial risk assessment model for flood warning grade. Furthermore, after determining the implementing mode of countermeasures with future inflow, an intelligent optimization algorithm was used to solve the optimization model for applicable water release scheme. In addition, another model without any countermeasure was set to be a comparative experiment. The results show that the model developed in this paper can further decrease the flood risk of water system with cascade reservoirs. It provides a new approach to flood risk management by coupling flood control operation and flood early warning of cascade reservoirs.

Study of operational risk-based configuration control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

1991-08-01

This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

The use of risk assessment to support control of Salmonella in pork

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nauta, Maarten

Despite the effectivity of control measures in the past decade, domestic pork was estimated to be the most important food source for salmonellosis in Denmark in 2014 (Anonymous 2015). Therefore, there is a continued focus on the identification of effective intervention measures in the pig and pork...... of salmonellosis for the Danish population. The results of these projects illustrate how quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) can be applied to support the control of Salmonella in pork....

Basel III Liquidity Risk Measures and Bank Failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. N. P. Hlatshwayo

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Basel III banking regulation emphasizes the use of liquidity coverage and nett stable funding ratios as measures of liquidity risk. In this paper, we approximate these measures by using global liquidity data for 391 hand-selected, LIBOR-based, Basel II compliant banks in 36 countries for the period 2002 to 2012. In particular, we compare the risk sensitivity of the aforementioned Basel III liquidity risk measures to those of traditional measures such as the nonperforming assets ratio, return-on-assets, LIBOR-OISS, Basel II Tier 1 capital ratio, government securities ratio, and brokered deposits ratio. Furthermore, we use a discrete-time hazard model to study bank failure. In this regard, we find that Basel III risk measures have limited ability to predict bank failure when compared with their traditional counterparts. An important result is that a higher liquidity coverage ratio is associated with a higher bank failure rate. We also find that market-wide liquidity risk (proxied by LIBOR-OISS was the major predictor of bank failures in 2009 and 2010 while idiosyncratic liquidity risk (proxied by other liquidity risk measures was less. In particular, our contribution is the first to achieve these results on a global scale over a relatively long period for a variety of banks.

Risk, control and self-identity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fynbo, Lars

2014-01-01

AIM - This article explores how young Danish drunk (and drug) drivers relate to the risk of driving under the influence (DUI). DESIGN - The study is based on qualitative interviews with 25 convicted drunk drivers who in 2010 participated in mandatory alcohol and traffic safety courses. The analysis...... follows Stephen Lyng’s concept of “edgework”, focusing on volitional risk taking and its effect on the acting individual’s self-identity. RESULTS - Drawing on the interviewees’ accounts of being arrested for drunk driving, the analysis discusses three different categories of young drunk drivers. Those...... in the first category view a DUI arrest as a loss of control and a reminder of the risk of DUI. Those in the second present DUI as a reaction to what they perceive as untenable social demands. Those in the third see loss of control - such as causing a traffic accident - as the ultimate way of claiming control...

Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

1992-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

Remarks on Risk-Sensitive Control Problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menaldi, Jose-Luis; Robin, Maurice

2005-01-01

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the discounted risk-sensitive control problem for periodic diffusion processes when the discount factor α goes to zero. If u α (θ,x) denotes the optimal cost function, θ being the risk factor, then it is shown that lim { α to 0}α u α (θ,x)=ξ(θ) where ξ(θ) is the average on ]0,θ[ of the optimal cost of the (usual) infinite horizon risk-sensitive control problem

Risk factors and effectiveness of preventive measures against influenza in the community

Science.gov (United States)

Castilla, Jesús; Godoy, Pere; Domínguez, Ángela; Martín, Vicente; Delgado‐Rodríguez, Miguel; Martínez‐Baz, Iván; Baricot, Maretva; Soldevila, Nuria; Mayoral, José M.; Astray, Jenaro; Quintana, José M.; Cantón, Rafael; Castro, Ady; González‐Candelas, Fernando; Alonso, Jordi; Saez, Marc; Tamames, Sonia; Pumarola, Tomás

2012-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Castilla et al. (2013) Risk factors and effectiveness of preventive measures against influenza in the community. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(2) 177–183. Background  The role of different risk exposures and preventive measures against influenza has not been well established. Objective  The aim of this study was to evaluate risk factors and measures to prevent influenza infection in the community. Methods  We conducted a multicenter case–control study. Cases were 481 outpatients aged 18 years or older with laboratory‐confirmed influenza A(H1N1)09 in the 2009–2010 season in Spain. A control was selected for each case from outpatients from the same area matched by age and date of consultation. Information on risk situations, preventive measures and other variables was obtained by interview and review of the medical record. Results  In the multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis, the risk of a diagnosis of influenza increased with the number of cohabitants (compared with <3 cohabitants, three cohabitants had an OR = 1·80, 95% CI 1·12–2·89, and ≥5 cohabitants had an OR = 2·66, 95% CI 1·31–5·41) and for health care workers (OR = 2·94, 95% CI 1·53–5·66). The use of metropolitan public transport was associated with a lower frequency of a diagnosis of influenza (OR = 0·45, 95% CI 0·30–0·68) but not the use of taxis or long‐distance transport. The influenza A(H1N1)09 vaccine had a protective effect (OR = 0·13, 95% CI 0·04–0·48), unlike hand washing after touching contaminated surfaces or the use of alcohol‐based hand sanitizers. Conclusion  The home environment appears to play an important role in the spread of influenza in adults, but not the use of public transport. Health care workers have a higher risk of contracting influenza. Vaccination was the most effective preventive measure. PMID:22458533

Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed distributions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Daníelsson, J.; Jorgensen, B.N.; Sarma, M.; Vries, de C.G.

2006-01-01

Using regular variation to define heavy tailed distributions, we show that prominent downside risk measures produce similar and consistent ranking of heavy tailed risk. Thus, regardless of the particular risk measure being used, assets will be ranked in a similar and consistent manner for heavy

Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lathrop, J.W.

1978-01-01

The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations

12 CFR Appendix E to Part 225 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for Bank Holding Companies: Market Risk Measure

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...) The organization must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is...-based capital ratio numerator. Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes... techniques adequately measure associated market risk. 10 An organization's internal model may use any...

[Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Dejun; Fu, Xiaokuan; Kong, Fanling; Sui, Shaofeng; Jiang, Yuanyuan; Du, Yinglin; Zhou, Jingyang

2014-06-01

Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants were performed on an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons, based on improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, with consideration of actual situation in China and in the present project. With the use of engineering analysis and identification of occupational hazards in the improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, hazard rating (HR) and risk assessment were performed on chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons. The chemical toxicants in the isophorone nitrile device were mainly isophorone, hydrocyanic acid, methanol, phosphoric acid, sodium hydroxide, and sodium cyanide; the HR values were mild hazard (2), extreme hazard (5), mild hazard (2), mild hazard (2), moderate hazard (3), and extreme hazard (5), respectively, and the corresponding exposure rating (ER) values were 2.09, 2.72, 2.76, 1.68, 2.0, and 1.59, respectively. The risk of chemical toxicants in this project was assessed according to the formula Risk = [HR×ER](1/2). Hydrocyanic acid was determined as high risk, sodium hydroxide and sodium cyanide as medium risk, and isophorone, methanol, and phosphoric acid as low risk. Priority in handling of risks was determined by risk rating. The table of risk control measure was established for pre-assessment of occupational hazards. With risk assessment in this study, we concluded that the isophorone nitrile device with 5,000 ton annual production was a high-occupational hazard device. This device is a project of extreme occupational hazard. The improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method is a scientific and applicable method, and is especially suitable for pre-evaluation of on-site project with no analogy.

Linking Measured Risk Aversion to Individual Characteristics.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartog, J.; Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A.; Jonker, N.

2002-01-01

From the stated price of a specified lottery in three unrelated surveys we deduce individuals' Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion. We find that risk aversion indeed falls with income and wealth. Entrepreneurs are less risk averse than employees, civil servants are more risk averse than private

New Risk Measure and Idiosyncratic Risk in Taiwan Stock Market

OpenAIRE

Yin-Ching Jan; Su-Ling Chiu; Jerry M. C. Wang

2013-01-01

Under the model developed by Merton (1987), the idiosyncratic risk would be important to explain the expected stock return. We follow the approach of Daniel and Titman (1998), and use the risk measure developed by Jan and Wang (2012) to examine whether idiosyncratic risk can play an important role in explaining the expected return in Taiwan stock market. We find that beta can¡¯t explain the expected return, and that idiosyncratic risk has a positive relation to expected returns for stocks wit...

Control Measure Dataset

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The EPA Control Measure Dataset is a collection of documents describing air pollution control available to regulated facilities for the control and abatement of air...

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever: Risk factors and control measures for the infection abatement

Science.gov (United States)

ASLAM, SAADIA; LATIF, MUHAMMAD SHAHZAD; DAUD, MUHAMMAD; RAHMAN, ZIA UR; TABASSUM, BUSHRA; RIAZ, MUHAMMAD SOHAIL; KHAN, ANWAR; TARIQ, MUHAMMAD; HUSNAIN, TAYYAB

2016-01-01

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a vector-borne viral disease, widely distributed in different regions of the world. The fever is caused by the CCHF virus (CCHFV), which belongs to the Nairovirus genus and Bunyaviridae family. The virus is clustered in seven genotypes, which are Africa-1, Africa-2, Africa-3, Europe-1, Europe-2, Asia-1 and Asia-2. The virus is highly pathogenic in nature, easily transmissible and has a high case fatality rate of 10–40%. The reservoir and vector of CCHFV are the ticks of the Hyalomma genus. Therefore, the circulation of this virus depends upon the distribution of the ticks. The virus can be transmitted from tick to animal, animal to human and human to human. The major symptoms include headache, high fever, abdominal pain, myalgia, hypotension and flushed face. As the disease progresses, severe symptoms start appearing, which include petechiae, ecchymosis, epistaxis, bleeding gums and emesis. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, quantitative polymerase chain reaction, antigen detection, serum neutralization and isolation of the virus by cell culture are the diagnostic techniques used for this viral infection. There is no specific antiviral therapy available thus far. However, ribavirin has been approved by the World Health Organization for the treatment of CCHFV infection. Awareness campaigns regarding the risk factors and control measures can aid in reducing the spread of this disease to a greater extent, particularly in developing countries. PMID:26870327

Preference towards Control in Risk Taking: Control, No Control, or Randomize?

OpenAIRE

Li, King King

2010-01-01

This paper experimentally investigates preference towards different methods of control in risk taking. Participants are asked to choose between different ways for choosing which numbers to bet on for a gamble. They can choose the numbers themselves (control), let the experimenter choose (no control), or randomize. It is found that in addition to the more conventional preference for control, some participants prefer not to control, or randomization. These preferences are robust as participants...

A comprehensive Network Security Risk Model for process control networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Matthew H; Haimes, Yacov Y

2009-02-01

The risk of cyber attacks on process control networks (PCN) is receiving significant attention due to the potentially catastrophic extent to which PCN failures can damage the infrastructures and commodity flows that they support. Risk management addresses the coupled problems of (1) reducing the likelihood that cyber attacks would succeed in disrupting PCN operation and (2) reducing the severity of consequences in the event of PCN failure or manipulation. The Network Security Risk Model (NSRM) developed in this article provides a means of evaluating the efficacy of candidate risk management policies by modeling the baseline risk and assessing expectations of risk after the implementation of candidate measures. Where existing risk models fall short of providing adequate insight into the efficacy of candidate risk management policies due to shortcomings in their structure or formulation, the NSRM provides model structure and an associated modeling methodology that captures the relevant dynamics of cyber attacks on PCN for risk analysis. This article develops the NSRM in detail in the context of an illustrative example.

A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kim Paula Colette Kuypers

Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased.A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases/sampling (controls. The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161 and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301 were included in the study.Main findings were that 1 alcohol in general (all the concentrations together caused an elevated crash risk; 2 cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3 when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives.The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

Some new classes of consistent risk measures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Dhaene, J.L.M.; Tang, Q.

2004-01-01

Many types of insurance premium principles and/or risk measures can be characterized by means of a set of axioms, which in many cases are rather arbitrarily chosen and not always in accordance with economic reality. In the present paper we generalize Yaari¿s risk measure by relaxing his axioms. In

A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

Science.gov (United States)

Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

2007-03-01

Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

The use of management controls to mitigate risk in strategic alliances: Field and survey evidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anderson, S.W.; Christ, M.; Dekker, H.C.; Sedatole, K.L.

2014-01-01

Transaction cost economics (TCE) theory is widely used to study the governance and management control practices used to mitigate interfirm alliance risk. Following Williamson (1985, 1991), empirical studies typically measure transaction characteristics that proxy for risk in alliances (e.g., asset

Control of System with Defined Risk Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavol Tomasov

2002-01-01

Full Text Available In the following paper the basic requirements for system control with defined risk level is presented. The paper should be an introduction to describe of theoretical apparatus, which was created during some years of research work in the Department of information and safety systems in this area. It a modification or creation of new parts of Information theory, System theory, and Control theory means. This parts are necessary for the analysis and synthesis tasks in the systems where dominant attribute of control is defined risk level. The basic problem is the creation of protect mechanism again the threats from inside and from controlled system environs. For each risk reduction mechanism is needed some redundancy which should be into control algorithm to put by exactly determined way.

Methodologies for measuring travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Sridhar, Shruti; Régner, Isabelle; Brouqui, Philippe; Gautret, Philippe

2016-01-01

Numerous studies in the past have stressed the importance of travelers' psychology and perception in the implementation of preventive measures. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the methodologies used in studies reporting on travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases. A systematic search for relevant literature was conducted according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. There were 39 studies identified. In 35 of 39 studies, the methodology used was that of a knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey based on questionnaires. One study used a combination of questionnaires and a visual psychometric measuring instrument called the 'pictorial representation of illness and self-measurement" or PRISM. One study used a self-representation model (SRM) method. Two studies measured psychosocial factors. Valuable information was obtained from KAP surveys showing an overall lack of knowledge among travelers about the most frequent travel-associated infections and associated preventive measures. This methodological approach however, is mainly descriptive, addressing knowledge, attitudes, and practices separately and lacking an examination of the interrelationships between these three components. Another limitation of the KAP method is underestimating psychosocial variables that have proved influential in health related behaviors, including perceived benefits and costs of preventive measures, perceived social pressure, perceived personal control, unrealistic optimism and risk propensity. Future risk perception studies in travel medicine should consider psychosocial variables with inferential and multivariate statistical analyses. The use of implicit measurements of attitudes could also provide new insights in the field of travelers' risk perception of travel-associated infectious diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

COMPLIANCE AS FACTORING BUSINESS RISK MANAGEMENT: CONTROL ASPECTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.K. Makarovych

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Indetermination of modern economy conditions and the lack of theoretical knowledge gained by domestic scientists about risk in factoring business actualize the research concerning the methodology and technique of factoring companies’ risk management. The article examines compliance which is the technology innovative for Ukrainian market of factoring risk management technologies. It is determined that the compliance is the risk management process directed to free will correspondence to state, international legislation as well as to the ethics standards accepted in the field of regulated legal relations and to the traditions of business circulation to sustain the necessary regulations and standards of market behaviour, and to consolidate the image of a factoring company. Compliance risks should be understood as the risks of missed profit or losses caused by the conflicts of interests and the discrepancy of employees’ actions to internal and external standard documents. The attention is paid to the control over the compliance. The author singles out 3 kinds of the compliance control such as institutional, operational and the compliance control over the observance of conducting business professional ethics regulations which are necessary for providing of efficient management of factoring business risks. The paper shows the organizing process of factoring business compliance control (by the development of internal standard documents, a compliance program, the foundation of compliance control subdivision, monitoring of the risks cause the choice, made by management entities of a factoring company, of the management methods of risks for their business. The development of new and improvement of existed forms of compliance control organizing process help satisfy users’ information needs and requests of the risk management factoring company department. The suggestions proposed create the grounds for the transformation and improvement of factoring

Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

Science.gov (United States)

Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

2015-04-01

Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation

10 CFR 74.45 - Measurements and measurement control.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Measurements and measurement control. 74.45 Section 74.45 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) MATERIAL CONTROL AND ACCOUNTING OF SPECIAL NUCLEAR MATERIAL Special Nuclear Material of Moderate Strategic Significance § 74.45 Measurements and measurement...

Colon cancer controls versus population controls in case-control studies of occupational risk factors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaerlev, Linda; Lynge, Elsebeth; Sabroe, Svend

2004-01-01

are interchangeable with the experience for population controls. Patient controls may even be preferable from population controls under certain conditions. In this study we examine if colon cancer patients can serve as surrogates for proper population controls in case-control studies of occupational risk factors...... about occupational, medical and life style conditions. RESULTS: No statistical significant difference for educational level, medical history or smoking status was seen between the two control groups. There was evidence of a higher alcohol intake, less frequent work as a farmer and less exposure...... to pesticides among colon cancer controls. CONCLUSIONS: Use of colon cancer controls may provide valid exposure estimates in studies of many occupational risk factors for cancer, but not for studies on exposure related to farming....

Risk factors and potential preventive measures for nephropatia epidemica in Sweden 2011–2012: a case–control study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alin Gherasim

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Nephropatia epidemica (NE, a relatively mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome caused by the Puumala virus (PUUV, is endemic in northern Sweden. We aim to study the risk factors associated with NE in this region. Methods: We conducted a matched case–control study between June 2011 and July 2012. We compared confirmed NE cases with randomly selected controls, matched by age, sex, and place of infection or residence. We analyzed the association between NE and several occupational, environmental, and behavioral exposures using conditional logistic regression. Results: We included in the final analysis 114 cases and 300 controls, forming 246 case–control pairs. Living in a house with an open space beneath, making house repairs, living less than 50 m from the forest, seeing rodents, and smoking were significantly associated with NE. Conclusion: Our results could orient public health policies targeting these risk factors and subsequently reduce the NE burden in the region.

Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

2010-01-01

This paper considers how procedures can be used to control risks faced by an organization and proposes a means of recognizing if a particular procedure reduces risk or contributes to the organization's exposure. The proposed method was developed out of the review of work documents and the governing procedures performed in the wake of the Columbia accident by NASA and the Space Shuttle prime contractor, United Space Alliance, LLC. A technique was needed to understand the rules, or procedural controls, in place at the time in the context of how important the role of each rule was. The proposed method assesses procedural risks, the residual risk associated with a hazard after a procedure's influence is accounted for, by considering each clause of a procedure as a unique procedural control that may be beneficial or harmful. For procedural risks with consequences severe enough to threaten the survival of the organization, the method measures the characteristics of each risk on a scale that is an alternative to the traditional consequence/likelihood couple. The dual benefits of the substitute scales are that they eliminate both the need to quantify a relationship between different consequence types and the need for the extensive history a probabilistic risk assessment would require. Control Value is used as an analog for the consequence, where the value of a rule is based on how well the control reduces the severity of the consequence when operating successfully. This value is composed of two parts: the inevitability of the consequence in the absence of the control, and the opportunity to intervene before the consequence is realized. High value controls will be ones where there is minimal need for intervention but maximum opportunity to actively prevent the outcome. Failure Likelihood is used as the substitute for the conventional likelihood of the outcome. For procedural controls, a failure is considered to be any non-malicious violation of the rule, whether intended or

Measuring your radon risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mackmurdo, R.

1994-01-01

In its annual report for 1992/93, the NRPB has warned that tens of thousands of UK employees may be exposed to high levels of radon at work. In addition to those who work underground, employees at risk of radon-induced lung cancer are typically those who spend long periods indoors. This article reviews the implications for all employers especially those in low or unknown levels of radon who resist taking measurements in the belief that by not measuring, they are not liable. (UK)

Combined Risk Measures: Representation Results and Applications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Göttsche, O.E.

2014-01-01

The analysis and interpretation of risk play a crucial role in different areas of modern finance. This includes pricing of financial products, capital allocation and derivation of economic capital. Key to this analysis is the quantification of the risk via risk measures. A promising approach is to

Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro Balbás

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

Critical Evaluation of the Linkage Between Tick-Based Risk Measures and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease Cases

Science.gov (United States)

Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J.

2018-01-01

The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human–tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. PMID:27330093

Mammographic density and risk of breast cancer by tumor characteristics: a case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnan, Kavitha; Baglietto, Laura; Stone, Jennifer; McLean, Catriona; Southey, Melissa C; English, Dallas R; Giles, Graham G; Hopper, John L

2017-12-16

In a previous paper, we had assumed that the risk of screen-detected breast cancer mostly reflects inherent risk, and the risk of whether a breast cancer is interval versus screen-detected mostly reflects risk of masking. We found that inherent risk was predicted by body mass index (BMI) and dense area (DA) or percent dense area (PDA), but not by non-dense area (NDA). Masking, however, was best predicted by PDA but not BMI. In this study, we aimed to investigate if these associations vary by tumor characteristics and mode of detection. We conducted a case-control study nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study of 244 screen-detected cases matched to 700 controls and 148 interval cases matched to 446 controls. DA, NDA and PDA were measured using the Cumulus software. Tumor characteristics included size, grade, lymph node involvement, and ER, PR, and HER2 status. Conditional and unconditional logistic regression were applied as appropriate to estimate the Odds per Adjusted Standard Deviation (OPERA) adjusted for age and BMI, allowing the association with BMI to be a function of age at diagnosis. For screen-detected cancer, both DA and PDA were associated to an increased risk of tumors of large size (OPERA ~ 1.6) and positive lymph node involvement (OPERA ~ 1.8); no association was observed for BMI and NDA. For risk of interval versus screen-detected breast cancer, the association with risk for any of the three mammographic measures did not vary by tumor characteristics; an association was observed for BMI for positive lymph nodes (OPERA ~ 0.6). No associations were observed for tumor grade and ER, PR and HER2 status of tumor. Both DA and PDA were predictors of inherent risk of larger breast tumors and positive nodal status, whereas for each of the three mammographic density measures the association with risk of masking did not vary by tumor characteristics. This might raise the hypothesis that the risk of breast tumours with poorer prognosis

Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

1990-01-01

The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

Quality Risk Management: Putting GMP Controls First.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Donnell, Kevin; Greene, Anne; Zwitkovits, Michael; Calnan, Nuala

2012-01-01

This paper presents a practical way in which current approaches to quality risk management (QRM) may be improved, such that they better support qualification, validation programs, and change control proposals at manufacturing sites. The paper is focused on the treatment of good manufacturing practice (GMP) controls during QRM exercises. It specifically addresses why it is important to evaluate and classify such controls in terms of how they affect the severity, probability of occurrence, and detection ratings that may be assigned to potential failure modes or negative events. It also presents a QRM process that is designed to directly link the outputs of risk assessments and risk control activities with qualification and validation protocols in the GMP environment. This paper concerns the need for improvement in the use of risk-based principles and tools when working to ensure that the manufacturing processes used to produce medicines, and their related equipment, are appropriate. Manufacturing processes need to be validated (or proven) to demonstrate that they can produce a medicine of the required quality. The items of equipment used in such processes need to be qualified, in order to prove that they are fit for their intended use. Quality risk management (QRM) tools can be used to support such qualification and validation activities, but their use should be science-based and subject to as little subjectivity and uncertainty as possible. When changes are proposed to manufacturing processes, equipment, or related activities, they also need careful evaluation to ensure that any risks present are managed effectively. This paper presents a practical approach to how QRM may be improved so that it better supports qualification, validation programs, and change control proposals in a more scientific way. This improved approach is based on the treatment of what are called good manufacturing process (GMP) controls during those QRM exercises. A GMP control can be considered

Mapping the receptivity of malaria risk to plan the future of control in Somalia.

Science.gov (United States)

Noor, Abdisalan Mohamed; Alegana, Victor Adagi; Patil, Anand Prabhakar; Moloney, Grainne; Borle, Mohammed; Yusuf, Fahmi; Amran, Jamal; Snow, Robert William

2012-01-01

To measure the receptive risks of malaria in Somalia and compare decisions on intervention scale-up based on this map and the more widely used contemporary risk maps. Cross-sectional community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data for the period 2007-2010 corrected to a standard age range of 2 to contemporary (2010) mean PfPR(2-10) and the maximum annual mean PfPR(2-10) (receptive) from the highest predicted PfPR(2-10) value over the study period as an estimate of receptivity. Randomly sampled communities in Somalia. Randomly sampled individuals of all ages. Cartographic descriptions of malaria receptivity and contemporary risks in Somalia at the district level. The contemporary annual PfPR(2-10) map estimated that all districts (n=74) and population (n=8.4 million) in Somalia were under hypoendemic transmission (≤10% PfPR(2-10)). Of these, 23% of the districts, home to 13% of the population, were under transmission of 10%-50% PfPR(2-10)) and the rest as hypoendemic. Compared with maps of receptive risks, contemporary maps of transmission mask disparities of malaria risk necessary to prioritise and sustain future control. As malaria risk declines across Africa, efforts must be invested in measuring receptivity for efficient control planning.

Farmers' Risk Preferences in Rural China: Measurements and Determinants.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Jianjun; He, Rui; Gong, Haozhou; Xu, Xia; He, Chunyang

2017-06-30

This study measures farmers' risk attitudes in rural China using a survey instrument and a complementary experiment conducted in the field with the same sample of subjects. Using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks "in general", we found that the average response of our sample is slightly risk averse. Farmers' exogenous factors (age, gender, and height) and self-reported happiness have a significant impact on farmers' willingness to take risks. The experiment results show that approximately 44% of farmers in the study area are risk averse. We compare farmers' self-reported measures of risk preferences derived from the survey instrument to preferences elicited through the experimental task. Results show that answers to the general risk attitude question in the survey can predict farmers' behaviors in the experiment to a statistically significant degree. This paper can contribute to the empirical literature on comparing local farmers' risk attitudes across different risk preference measurement methods in the developing world.

Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

CERN Document Server

Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

2017-01-01

This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

The moderating effect of control over work scheduling and overtime on the relationship between workload demands and perceived job risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Näswall, Katharina; Burt, Christopher D B; Pearce, Megan

2015-01-01

This study investigated the impact of workload demands on perceived job risk using the Job Demand-Control model as a research framework. The primary objective was to test the hypothesis that employee control over work scheduling and overtime would moderate the relationship between workload demands and perceived job risk. Ninety-six participants working in a variety of industries completed measures of workload demands, and of control over work scheduling and overtime, and a measure of perceived job risk. Workload demands predicted higher perceptions of job risk. However, the results also suggest that control over overtime moderated this relationship, where those with the combination of high workload demands and low control over overtime reported higher levels of perceived risk. The results indicate that the JDC model is applicable to safety research. The results suggest that employee control over workload demands is an important variable to consider in terms of managing workplace safety. The present study also points to important areas for future research to explore in order to further understand the connection between demands and safety.

Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laeven, Roger; Stadje, M.A.

2010-01-01

We introduce entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk and prove a collection of axiomatic characterization and duality results. We show in particular that entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk emerge as negative certainty equivalents in (the regular and a generalized

Risk and Control Developments in Corporate Governance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Claus; Laursen, Peter Birkholm

2007-01-01

Are the risk and control developments in corporate governance changing the role of the external auditor? This paper examines how the concepts of risk and control are incorporated in current corporate governance promulgations and analyses the implications for the role of the external auditor....... It is suggested that up till now the corporate governance debate has strengthened the position or role of the internal auditor in the advantage of the role of the external auditor. The promulgations have influenced the internal control mechanisms, and the control responsibilities have become more explicit....... Dominant determinants for the future role of the external auditor seem to be in conflict, namely the value adding function of the audit with an alignment of risk oriented efforts by the auditor and the company versus the notion of "back to basics". The external auditors ought to recognise that they must...

Assessment of balance control in relation to fall risk among older people

OpenAIRE

Nordin, Ellinor

2008-01-01

Falls and their consequences among older people are a serious medical and public health problem. Identifying individuals at risk of falling is therefore a major concern. The purpose of this thesis was to evaluate measurement tools of balance control and their predictive value when screening for fall risk in physically dependent individuals ≥65 years old living in residential care facilities, and physically independent individuals ≥75 years old living in the community. Following baseline asses...

Cumulative risk exposure moderates the association between parasympathetic reactivity and inhibitory control in preschool-age children.

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliano, Ryan J; Roos, Leslie E; Farrar, Jessica D; Skowron, Elizabeth A

2018-04-01

A child's cumulative risk for early exposure to stress has been linked to alterations of self-regulation outcomes, including neurobiological correlates of inhibitory control (IC). We examined whether children's ability to engage the parasympathetic nervous system impacts how risk affects IC. Children ages 3-5 years completed two laboratory measures of IC while respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) was measured, indexing parasympathetic activity. Children with greater risk demonstrated lower IC; risk also moderated associations between RSA reactivity and IC. For children with less risk, greater RSA withdrawal during IC tasks was associated with better IC. In contrast, greater risk was associated with poor IC, regardless of RSA withdrawal. Effects of risk were more pronounced for cumulative than individual measures. Results suggest that cumulative risk exposure disrupts connectivity between physiological and behavioral components of self-regulation in early childhood. Parasympathetic withdrawal to cognitive tasks may be less relevant for performance in developmental samples experiencing greater life stress. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Profit and Risk Measures in Oil Production Optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Capolei, Andrea; Foss, Bjarne; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2015-01-01

In oil production optimization, we usually aim to maximize a deterministic scalar performance index such as the profit over the expected reservoir lifespan. However, when uncertainty in the parameters is considered, the profit results in a random variable that can assume a range of values dependi...... pro and cons for each of them. Finally, among the presented risk measures, we identify two of them as appropriate risk measures when minimizing the risk....

Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ebert, S.; Wiesen, D.

Risk aversion—but also the higher-order risk preferences of prudence and temperance—are fundamental concepts in the study of economic decision making. We propose a method to jointly measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Our theoretical approach is to define risk

On risk measures and decisions in insurance and finance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

Radon in indoor air. Health risk, measurement methods and remedial measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strand, T.

1996-02-01

Radon in indoor air is the main source of ionizing radiation in Norway. The booklet contains a presentation of radon sources, measurement methods, indoor radon concentrations, action levels, health risk and remedial measures

Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, P J

2013-01-01

Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead

Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, P. J.

2013-09-01

Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead.

The effect of tobacco control measures during a period of rising cardiovascular disease risk in India: a mathematical model of myocardial infarction and stroke.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjay Basu

Full Text Available We simulated tobacco control and pharmacological strategies for preventing cardiovascular deaths in India, the country that is expected to experience more cardiovascular deaths than any other over the next decade.A microsimulation model was developed to quantify the differential effects of various tobacco control measures and pharmacological therapies on myocardial infarction and stroke deaths stratified by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2013 to 2022. The model incorporated population-representative data from India on multiple risk factors that affect myocardial infarction and stroke mortality, including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease. We also included data from India on cigarette smoking, bidi smoking, chewing tobacco, and secondhand smoke. According to the model's results, smoke-free legislation and tobacco taxation would likely be the most effective strategy among a menu of tobacco control strategies (including, as well, brief cessation advice by health care providers, mass media campaigns, and an advertising ban for reducing myocardial infarction and stroke deaths over the next decade, while cessation advice would be expected to be the least effective strategy at the population level. In combination, these tobacco control interventions could avert 25% of myocardial infarctions and strokes (95% CI: 17%-34% if the effects of the interventions are additive. These effects are substantially larger than would be achieved through aspirin, antihypertensive, and statin therapy under most scenarios, because of limited treatment access and adherence; nevertheless, the impacts of tobacco control policies and pharmacological interventions appear to be markedly synergistic, averting up to one-third of deaths from myocardial infarction and stroke among 20- to 79-y-olds over the next 10 y. Pharmacological therapies could also be considerably more potent with further health system

The effect of tobacco control measures during a period of rising cardiovascular disease risk in India: a mathematical model of myocardial infarction and stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Basu, Sanjay; Glantz, Stanton; Bitton, Asaf; Millett, Christopher

2013-01-01

We simulated tobacco control and pharmacological strategies for preventing cardiovascular deaths in India, the country that is expected to experience more cardiovascular deaths than any other over the next decade. A microsimulation model was developed to quantify the differential effects of various tobacco control measures and pharmacological therapies on myocardial infarction and stroke deaths stratified by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2013 to 2022. The model incorporated population-representative data from India on multiple risk factors that affect myocardial infarction and stroke mortality, including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease. We also included data from India on cigarette smoking, bidi smoking, chewing tobacco, and secondhand smoke. According to the model's results, smoke-free legislation and tobacco taxation would likely be the most effective strategy among a menu of tobacco control strategies (including, as well, brief cessation advice by health care providers, mass media campaigns, and an advertising ban) for reducing myocardial infarction and stroke deaths over the next decade, while cessation advice would be expected to be the least effective strategy at the population level. In combination, these tobacco control interventions could avert 25% of myocardial infarctions and strokes (95% CI: 17%-34%) if the effects of the interventions are additive. These effects are substantially larger than would be achieved through aspirin, antihypertensive, and statin therapy under most scenarios, because of limited treatment access and adherence; nevertheless, the impacts of tobacco control policies and pharmacological interventions appear to be markedly synergistic, averting up to one-third of deaths from myocardial infarction and stroke among 20- to 79-y-olds over the next 10 y. Pharmacological therapies could also be considerably more potent with further health system improvements. Smoke

Measurement control workshop instructional materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Harvel, Charles [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Clark, John [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gregg Protection Services, Lynchburg, VA (United States)

2012-09-01

An essential element in an effective nuclear materials control and accountability (MC&A) program is the measurement of the nuclear material as it is received, moved, processed and shipped. Quality measurement systems and methodologies determine the accuracy of the accountability values. Implementation of a measurement control program is essential to ensure that the measurement systems and methodologies perform as expected. A measurement control program also allows for a determination of the level of confidence in the accounting values.

Measurement control workshop instructional materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Harvel, Charles [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Clark, John [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gregg Protection Services, Lynchburg, VA (United States)

2011-12-01

An essential element in an effective nuclear materials control and accountability (MC&A) program is the measurement of the nuclear material as it is received, moved, processed and shipped. Quality measurement systems and methodologies determine the accuracy of the accountability values. Implementation of a measurement control program is essential to ensure that the measurement systems and methodologies perform as expected. A measurement control program also allows for a determination of the level of confidence in the ac counting values.

The New Friends Vignettes: Measuring Parental Psychological Control that Confers Risk for Anxious Adjustment in Preschoolers

Science.gov (United States)

McShane, Kelly E.; Hastings, Paul D.

2009-01-01

This investigation examined the links between preschoolers' internalizing problems and anxiety-related social difficulties and two aspects of maternal and paternal psychological control: overprotection and critical control. Some 115 mothers and 92 fathers completed the New Friends Vignettes (NFV), a new measure of psychological control and…

Risk measures on networks and expected utility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cerqueti, Roy; Lupi, Claudio

2016-01-01

In reliability theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. In this paper we elaborate on the concept of risk acceptance, and propose a theoretical framework based on network theory. In doing this, we deal with system reliability, where the interconnections among the random quantities involved in the decision process are explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, we explore the conditions to be satisfied for risk-acceptance criteria to be consistent with the axiomatization of standard expected utility theory within the network framework. In accordance with existing literature, we show that a risk evaluation criterion can be meaningful even if it is not consistent with the standard axiomatization of expected utility, once this is suitably reinterpreted in the light of networks. Finally, we provide some illustrative examples. - Highlights: • We discuss risk acceptance and theoretically develop this theme on the basis of network theory. • We propose an original framework for describing the algebraic structure of the set of the networks, when they are viewed as risks. • We introduce the risk measures on networks, which induce total orders on the set of networks. • We state conditions on the risk measures on networks to let the induced risk-acceptance criterion be consistent with a new formulation of the expected utility theory.

Assessment and Control of Spacecraft Charging Risks on the International Space Station

Science.gov (United States)

Koontz, Steve; Valentine, Mark; Keeping, Thomas; Edeen, Marybeth; Spetch, William; Dalton, Penni

2004-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) operates in the F2 region of Earth's ionosphere, orbiting at altitudes ranging from 350 to 450 km at an inclination of 51.6 degrees. The relatively dense, cool F2 ionospheric plasma suppresses surface charging processes much of the time, and the flux of relativistic electrons is low enough to preclude deep dielectric charging processes. The most important spacecraft charging processes in the ISS orbital environment are: 1) ISS electrical power system interactions with the F2 plasma, 2) magnetic induction processes resulting from flight through the geomagnetic field and, 3) charging processes that result from interaction with auroral electrons at high latitude. Recently, the continuing review and evaluation of putative ISS charging hazards required by the ISS Program Office revealed that ISS charging could produce an electrical shock hazard to the ISS crew during extravehicular activity (EVA). ISS charging risks are being evaluated in an ongoing measurement and analysis campaign. The results of ISS charging measurements are combined with a recently developed model of ISS charging (the Plasma Interaction Model) and an exhaustive analysis of historical ionospheric variability data (ISS Ionospheric Specification) to evaluate ISS charging risks using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods. The PRA combines estimates of the frequency of occurrence and severity of the charging hazards with estimates of the reliability of various hazard controls systems, as required by NASA s safety and risk management programs, to enable design and selection of a hazard control approach that minimizes overall programmatic and personnel risk. The PRA provides a quantitative methodology for incorporating the results of the ISS charging measurement and analysis campaigns into the necessary hazard reports, EVA procedures, and ISS flight rules required for operating ISS in a safe and productive manner.

Managerial Risk Accounting and Control – A German perspective

OpenAIRE

Winter, Peter

2007-01-01

Recent developments have sparked a renewed interest concerning risk related topics in nonfinancial companies. Risk management issues directly touch the domain of management accounting and control. In Germany, topics related to the support of corporate or enterprise risk management are commonly discussed under the label of “Risikocontrolling”, which will be translated as Managerial Risk Accounting and Control. However, the conceptual foundation of a risk oriented management accounting respecti...

Effect of balance training on postural balance control and risk of fall in children with diplegic cerebral palsy.

Science.gov (United States)

El-Shamy, Shamekh Mohamed; Abd El Kafy, Ehab Mohamed

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of balance training on postural control and fall risk in children with diplegic cerebral palsy. Thirty spastic diplegic cerebral palsied children (10-12 years) were included in this study. Children were randomly assigned into two equal-sized groups: control and study groups. Participants in both groups received a traditional physical therapy exercise program. The study group additionally received balance training on the Biodex balance system. Treatment was provided 30 min/d, 3 d/week for 3 successive months. To evaluate the limit of stability and fall risk, participated children received baseline and post-treatment assessments using the Biodex balance system. Overall directional control, total time to complete the test, overall stability index of the fall risk test and total score of the pediatric balance scale were measured. Children in both groups showed significant improvements in the mean values of all measured variables post-treatment (p control group (p postural balance control in children with diplegic cerebral palsy.

The effect of different cardiovascular risk presentation formats on intentions, understanding and emotional affect: a randomised controlled trial using a web-based risk formatter (protocol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Newcombe Robert

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The future risk of heart disease can be predicted with increasing precision. However, more research is needed into how this risk is conveyed and presented. The aim of this study is to compare the effects of presenting cardiovascular risk in different formats on individuals' intention to change behaviour to reduce risk, understanding of risk information and emotional affect. Methods/design A randomised controlled trial comprising four arms, with a between subjects design will be performed. There will be two intervention groups and two control groups. The first control comprises a pre-intervention questionnaire and presents risk in a bar graph format. The second control presents risk in a bar graph format without pre-intervention questionnaire. These two control groups are to account for the potential Hawthorne effect of thinking about cardiovascular risk before viewing actual risk. The two intervention groups comprise presenting risk in either a pictogram or metonym format (image depicting seriousness of having a myocardial infarction. 800 individuals' aged between 45 and 64 years, who have not been previously diagnosed with heart disease and have access to a computer with internet, will be given a link to a website comprising a risk calculator and electronic questionnaires. 10-year risk of having a coronary heart disease event will be assessed and presented in one of the three formats. A post-intervention questionnaire will be completed after viewing the risk format. Main outcome measures are (i intention to change behaviour, (ii understanding of risk information, (iii emotional affect and (iv worry about future heart disease. Secondary outcomes are the sub-components of the theory of planned behaviour: attitudes, perceived behavioural control and subjective norms. Discussion Having reviewed the literature, we are not aware of any other studies which have used the assessment of actual risk, in a trial to compare different

[High-grade pressure sores in frail older high-risk persons. A retrospective postmortem case-control-study].

Science.gov (United States)

Von Renteln-Kruse, W; Krause, T; Anders, J; Kühl, M; Heinemann, A; Püschel, K

2004-04-01

Some old persons at risk do develop, but others, at comparable risk, do not develop high-grade pressure sores. To evaluate potentially different risk factors, we performed a post mortem case-control study in old persons who developed high-grade pressure sores within six months until 14 days before death. Consecutive cases with pressure sores grade >/=3 and potential controls at comparably high risk for pressure sores were examined before cremation. After written informed consent had been obtained by the next relatives, all available nursing and medical records of the deceased were thoroughly evaluated. Cases and controls were matched according to age, gender, immobility, and cachexia.A total of 100 cases with 71 pressure sores grade 3 and 29 pressure sores grade 4 were compared to 100 controls with 27 pressure sores grade pressure sores in frail older high-risk persons. Sedative drug effects and impaired patient compliance with preventive and therapeutic measures may also be associated with the development of high-grade pressure sores in old persons at high risk.

Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Verbeke Sven

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

Auditing measurement control programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberts, F.P.; Brouns, R.J.

1979-10-01

Requirements and a general procedure for auditing measurement control programs used in special nuclear material accounting are discussed. The areas of measurement control that need to be examined are discussed and a suggested checklist is included to assist in the preparation and performance of the audit

Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

2016-11-01

Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

[Health risks from pest control products].

Science.gov (United States)

Pieper, C; Holthenrich, D; Schneider, H

2014-05-01

According to European biocide legislation, pest control products require assessment and authorization by the responsible national or European authorities. Biocidal products can only be authorized if they have no unacceptable effects on human health. The health risk assessment performed for authorization comprises (a) the derivation of reference values for the active substances and substances of concern contained in the biocidal product and (b) an exposure assessment. These parameters are required for risk characterization. No unacceptable health risks are expected if the determined exposure is less than the relevant reference value. In addition, the toxicological information is used for classification of the biocidal product. The assessment may, where necessary, result in specific conditions for use or other restrictions aimed at minimizing risk. The risk to human health from pest control products is mainly based on the toxicological properties of their active substances. Commonly, the coformulants used in pest control products are of less concern than the active substances (e.g., food ingredients and animal feed products). For example, most rodenticides belong to the group of anticoagulants, which are also effective in humans. Regarding intoxications through insecticides, the group of pyrethroids is of particular importance. Fumigants containing metal phosphides, hydrogen cyanide, or sulfuryl difluoride are particularly toxic. This toxicity is linked to the high acute inhalation toxicity of the gaseous active substances themselves or, in the case of phosphides, of the released gas phosphane. The aim of health risk assessment for the authorization of biocidal products is to ensure their safe application for users and all other persons involved, assuming an adequate and label-compliant use.

Predictability of cardiovascular risks by psychological measures

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šolcová, Iva; Kebza, V.

2008-01-01

Roč. 23, č. 1 (2008), s. 241-241 ISSN 0887-0446 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA406/06/0747 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : CVD risks * psychological measures * physiological risks Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

Risk-sensitive optimal feedback control accounts for sensorimotor behavior under uncertainty.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arne J Nagengast

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Many aspects of human motor behavior can be understood using optimality principles such as optimal feedback control. However, these proposed optimal control models are risk-neutral; that is, they are indifferent to the variability of the movement cost. Here, we propose the use of a risk-sensitive optimal controller that incorporates movement cost variance either as an added cost (risk-averse controller or as an added value (risk-seeking controller to model human motor behavior in the face of uncertainty. We use a sensorimotor task to test the hypothesis that subjects are risk-sensitive. Subjects controlled a virtual ball undergoing Brownian motion towards a target. Subjects were required to minimize an explicit cost, in points, that was a combination of the final positional error of the ball and the integrated control cost. By testing subjects on different levels of Brownian motion noise and relative weighting of the position and control cost, we could distinguish between risk-sensitive and risk-neutral control. We show that subjects change their movement strategy pessimistically in the face of increased uncertainty in accord with the predictions of a risk-averse optimal controller. Our results suggest that risk-sensitivity is a fundamental attribute that needs to be incorporated into optimal feedback control models.

A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Chenarani

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.

A comparison of five methods of measuring mammographic density: a case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Astley, Susan M; Harkness, Elaine F; Sergeant, Jamie C; Warwick, Jane; Stavrinos, Paula; Warren, Ruth; Wilson, Mary; Beetles, Ursula; Gadde, Soujanya; Lim, Yit; Jain, Anil; Bundred, Sara; Barr, Nicola; Reece, Valerie; Brentnall, Adam R; Cuzick, Jack; Howell, Tony; Evans, D Gareth

2018-02-05

High mammographic density is associated with both risk of cancers being missed at mammography, and increased risk of developing breast cancer. Stratification of breast cancer prevention and screening requires mammographic density measures predictive of cancer. This study compares five mammographic density measures to determine the association with subsequent diagnosis of breast cancer and the presence of breast cancer at screening. Women participating in the "Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening" (PROCAS) study, a study of cancer risk, completed questionnaires to provide personal information to enable computation of the Tyrer-Cuzick risk score. Mammographic density was assessed by visual analogue scale (VAS), thresholding (Cumulus) and fully-automated methods (Densitas, Quantra, Volpara) in contralateral breasts of 366 women with unilateral breast cancer (cases) detected at screening on entry to the study (Cumulus 311/366) and in 338 women with cancer detected subsequently. Three controls per case were matched using age, body mass index category, hormone replacement therapy use and menopausal status. Odds ratios (OR) between the highest and lowest quintile, based on the density distribution in controls, for each density measure were estimated by conditional logistic regression, adjusting for classic risk factors. The strongest predictor of screen-detected cancer at study entry was VAS, OR 4.37 (95% CI 2.72-7.03) in the highest vs lowest quintile of percent density after adjustment for classical risk factors. Volpara, Densitas and Cumulus gave ORs for the highest vs lowest quintile of 2.42 (95% CI 1.56-3.78), 2.17 (95% CI 1.41-3.33) and 2.12 (95% CI 1.30-3.45), respectively. Quantra was not significantly associated with breast cancer (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.67-1.54). Similar results were found for subsequent cancers, with ORs of 4.48 (95% CI 2.79-7.18), 2.87 (95% CI 1.77-4.64) and 2.34 (95% CI 1.50-3.68) in highest vs lowest quintiles of VAS, Volpara and Densitas

Temperature measurement and control

CERN Document Server

Leigh, JR

1988-01-01

This book treats the theory and practice of temperature measurement and control and important related topics such as energy management and air pollution. There are no specific prerequisites for the book although a knowledge of elementary control theory could be useful. The first half of the book is an application oriented survey of temperature measurement techniques and devices. The second half is concerned mainly with temperature control in both simple and complex situations.

Dopamine agonists and risk: impulse control disorders in Parkinson's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Voon, Valerie; Gao, Jennifer; Brezing, Christina; Symmonds, Mkael; Ekanayake, Vindhya; Fernandez, Hubert; Dolan, Raymond J; Hallett, Mark

2011-05-01

Impulse control disorders are common in Parkinson's disease, occurring in 13.6% of patients. Using a pharmacological manipulation and a novel risk taking task while performing functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the relationship between dopamine agonists and risk taking in patients with Parkinson's disease with and without impulse control disorders. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, subjects chose between two choices of equal expected value: a 'Sure' choice and a 'Gamble' choice of moderate risk. To commence each trial, in the 'Gain' condition, individuals started at $0 and in the 'Loss' condition individuals started at -$50 below the 'Sure' amount. The difference between the maximum and minimum outcomes from each gamble (i.e. range) was used as an index of risk ('Gamble Risk'). Sixteen healthy volunteers were behaviourally tested. Fourteen impulse control disorder (problem gambling or compulsive shopping) and 14 matched Parkinson's disease controls were tested ON and OFF dopamine agonists. Patients with impulse control disorder made more risky choices in the 'Gain' relative to the 'Loss' condition along with decreased orbitofrontal cortex and anterior cingulate activity, with the opposite observed in Parkinson's disease controls. In patients with impulse control disorder, dopamine agonists were associated with enhanced sensitivity to risk along with decreased ventral striatal activity again with the opposite in Parkinson's disease controls. Patients with impulse control disorder appear to have a bias towards risky choices independent of the effect of loss aversion. Dopamine agonists enhance sensitivity to risk in patients with impulse control disorder possibly by impairing risk evaluation in the striatum. Our results provide a potential explanation of why dopamine agonists may lead to an unconscious bias towards risk in susceptible individuals.

Efficacy of internal control and controlling business risks

OpenAIRE

IONESCU, Luminiţa

2010-01-01

Companies can gain additional efficiency in designing and implementing or assessing internal control by focusing on only those financial reporting objectives directly applicable to the company’s activities and circumstances, taking a risk based approach to internal control. It is important for any organization to have reliable financial data for internal decision-making purpose. Financial information is often useful in many internal decisions such as product or service pricing. This is why th...

A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality

Infectious diseases following natural disasters: prevention and control measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Kouadio, Isidore K; Aljunid, Syed; Kamigaki, Taro; Hammad, Karen; Oshitani, Hitoshi

2012-01-01

Natural disasters may lead to infectious disease outbreaks when they result in substantial population displacement and exacerbate synergic risk factors (change in the environment, in human conditions and in the vulnerability to existing pathogens) for disease transmission. We reviewed risk factors and potential infectious diseases resulting from prolonged secondary effects of major natural disasters that occurred from 2000 to 2011. Natural disasters including floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, tropical cyclones (e.g., hurricanes and typhoons) and tornadoes have been secondarily described with the following infectious diseases including diarrheal diseases, acute respiratory infections, malaria, leptospirosis, measles, dengue fever, viral hepatitis, typhoid fever, meningitis, as well as tetanus and cutaneous mucormycosis. Risk assessment is essential in post-disaster situations and the rapid implementation of control measures through re-establishment and improvement of primary healthcare delivery should be given high priority, especially in the absence of pre-disaster surveillance data.

Examining Measures of Weight as Risk Factors for Sport-Related Injury in Adolescents

OpenAIRE

Richmond, Sarah A.; Nettel-Aguirre, Alberto; Doyle-Baker, Patricia K.; Macpherson, Alison; Emery, Carolyn A.

2016-01-01

Objectives. To examine body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) as risk factors for sport injury in adolescents. Design. A secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial. Methods. Adolescents (n = 1,040) at the ages of 11?15 years from two Calgary junior high schools were included. BMI (kg/m2) and WC (cm) were measured from direct measures at baseline assessment. Categories (overweight/obese) were created using validated internati...

Posture control and the risk of industrial accident: a stabilographic investigation in a naval shipyard.

Science.gov (United States)

Moll van Charante, A W; Snijders, C J; Mulder, P G

1991-10-01

In a previous case-control study on the effect of impaired perceptual acuity on the risk of industrial injuries at a naval shipyard, three factors which might influence the perception and processing of sensory impressions--alcohol consumption, hearing loss exceeding 20 decibels (dB) and exposure to noise exceeding 82 dB(A)--were found to contribute to the risk of injury. According to recent reports, these factors can all lead to impaired posture control. Because in general about 40% of all accidents are associated with falling, tripping, slipping and the like, a supplementary study has been carried out to unravel possible confounding effects of posture control on these three risk factors. Cases (who had suffered two or more accidents during the preceding 4 years) and controls (who had been accident-free in the same period) were compared as regards posture control measured during silence or noise. No significant difference in posture control was found between cases and controls, either in silence or during exposure to heavy noise.

Improved process control, lowered costs and reduced risks through the use of non-destructive mobility and sheet carrier density measurements on GaAs and GaN wafers

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, D.; Hogan, K.; Blew, A.; Cordes, M.

2004-12-01

Improved process control, lowered costs and reduced risks can be realized through the use of non-destructive mobility and sheet charge density measurements during the fabrication of GaAs and GaN wafers. The results from this microwave-based technique are shown to agree with destructive van der Pauw Hall testing results to within ±5%. In addition, it has the ability to map wafer uniformity and provide separated 2DEG data for thick cap or multi-layered structures. As a result, this technique provides an efficient and cost-effective alternative to current process control metrology methods, while providing the user with important process control data.

Control measurement system in purex process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mani, V.V.S.

1985-01-01

The dependence of a bulk facility handling Purex Process on the control measurement system for evaluating the process performance needs hardly be emphasized. process control, Plant control, inventory control and quality control are the four components of the control measurement system. The scope and requirements of each component are different and the measurement methods are selected accordingly. However, each measurement system has six important elements. These are described in detail. The quality assurance programme carried out by the laboratory as a mechanism through which the quality of measurements is regularly tested and stated in quantitative terms is also explained in terms of internal and external quality assurance, with examples. Suggestions for making the control measurement system more responsive to the operational needs in future are also briefly discussed. (author)

Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

OpenAIRE

Loebnitz, K.

2011-01-01

Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenario analyses. In this thesis we present a more rigorous framework that allows us to measure a bank's liquidity risk within the standard economic capital and RAROC setting. In particular, we introduc...

Do measures of reactive balance control predict falls in people with stroke returning to the community?

Science.gov (United States)

Mansfield, A; Wong, J S; McIlroy, W E; Biasin, L; Brunton, K; Bayley, M; Inness, E L

2015-12-01

To determine if reactive balance control measures predict falls after discharge from stroke rehabilitation. Prospective cohort study. Rehabilitation hospital and community. Independently ambulatory individuals with stroke who were discharged home after inpatient rehabilitation (n=95). Balance and gait measures were obtained from a clinical assessment at discharge from inpatient stroke rehabilitation. Measures of reactive balance control were obtained: (1) during quiet standing; (2) when walking; and (3) in response to large postural perturbations. Participants reported falls and activity levels up to 6 months post-discharge. Logistic and Poisson regressions were used to identify measures of reactive balance control that were related to falls post-discharge. Decreased paretic limb contribution to standing balance control [rate ratio 0.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7 to 1.0; P=0.011], reduced between-limb synchronisation of quiet standing balance control (rate ratio 0.9, 95% CI 0.8 to 0.9; Pfall rates when controlling for age, stroke severity, functional balance and daily walking activity. Impaired reactive balance control in standing and walking predicted increased risk of falls post-discharge from stroke rehabilitation. Specifically, measures that revealed the capacity of both limbs to respond to instability were related to increased risk of falls. These results suggest that post-stroke rehabilitation strategies for falls prevention should train responses to instability, and focus on remediating dyscontrol in the more-affected limb. Copyright © 2015 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper; Belsky, Daniel W; Danese, Andrea; Harrington, HonaLee; Houts, Renate M; Poulton, Richie; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Caspi, Avshalom

2018-05-09

Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP). Participants with available plasma samples at age 38 were included (N = 837, 50.5% male). suPAR (mean 2.40 ng/ml; SD 0.91) was positively correlated with hsCRP (r 0.15, p childhood risks were aggregated into a Cumulative Childhood Risk index, and controlling for sex, BMI, and smoking, Cumulative Childhood Risk was associated with higher suPAR (b 0.10; SE 0.03; p = .002). Cumulative Childhood Risk predicted elevated suPAR, after controlling for hsCRP (b 0.18; SE 0.03; p childhood risk factors was associated with higher suPAR levels, independent of CRP. suPAR is a useful addition to studies connecting childhood risk to adult inflammatory burden. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Control beliefs and risk for 4-year mortality in older adults: a prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Duan-Porter, Wei; Hastings, Susan Nicole; Neelon, Brian; Van Houtven, Courtney Harold

2017-01-11

Control beliefs are important psychological factors that likely contribute to heterogeneity in health outcomes for older adults. We evaluated whether control beliefs are associated with risk for 4-year mortality, after accounting for established "classic" biomedical risk factors. We also determined if an enhanced risk model with control beliefs improved identification of individuals with low vs. high mortality risk. We used nationally representative data from the Health and Retirement Study (2006-2012) for adults 50 years or older in 2006 (n = 7313) or 2008 (n = 6301). We assessed baseline perceived global control (measured as 2 dimensions-"constraints" and "mastery"), and health-specific control. We also obtained baseline data for 12 established biomedical risk factors of 4-year mortality: age, sex, 4 medical conditions (diabetes mellitus, cancer, lung disease and heart failure), body mass index less than 25 kg/m 2 , smoking, and 4 functional difficulties (with bathing, managing finances, walking several blocks and pushing or pulling heavy objects). Deaths within 4 years of follow-up were determined through interviews with respondents' family and the National Death Index. After accounting for classic biomedical risk factors, perceived constraints were significantly associated with higher mortality risk (third quartile scores odds ratio [OR] 1.37, 95% CI 1.03-1.81; fourth quartile scores OR 1.45, 95% CI, 1.09-1.92), while health-specific control was significantly associated with lower risk (OR 0.69-0.78 for scores above first quartile). Higher perceived mastery scores were not consistently associated with decreased risk. The enhanced model with control beliefs found an additional 3.5% of participants (n = 222) with low predicted risk of 4-year mortality (i.e., 4% or less); observed mortality for these individuals was 1.8% during follow-up. Compared with participants predicted to have low mortality risk only by the classic biomedical model

On set-valued functionals: Multivariate risk measures and Aumann integrals

Science.gov (United States)

Ararat, Cagin

In this dissertation, multivariate risk measures for random vectors and Aumann integrals of set-valued functions are studied. Both are set-valued functionals with values in a complete lattice of subsets of Rm. Multivariate risk measures are considered in a general d-asset financial market with trading opportunities in discrete time. Specifically, the following features of the market are incorporated in the evaluation of multivariate risk: convex transaction costs modeled by solvency regions, intermediate trading constraints modeled by convex random sets, and the requirement of liquidation into the first m ≤ d of the assets. It is assumed that the investor has a "pure" multivariate risk measure R on the space of m-dimensional random vectors which represents her risk attitude towards the assets but does not take into account the frictions of the market. Then, the investor with a d-dimensional position minimizes the set-valued functional R over all m-dimensional positions that she can reach by trading in the market subject to the frictions described above. The resulting functional Rmar on the space of d-dimensional random vectors is another multivariate risk measure, called the market-extension of R. A dual representation for R mar that decomposes the effects of R and the frictions of the market is proved. Next, multivariate risk measures are studied in a utility-based framework. It is assumed that the investor has a complete risk preference towards each individual asset, which can be represented by a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Then, an incomplete preference is considered for multivariate positions which is represented by the vector of the individual utility functions. Under this structure, multivariate shortfall and divergence risk measures are defined as the optimal values of set minimization problems. The dual relationship between the two classes of multivariate risk measures is constructed via a recent Lagrange duality for set optimization. In

Sex differences in behavioral impulsivity in at-risk and non-risk drinkers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica eWeafer

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Mounting evidence from both animal and human studies suggests that females are more vulnerable to drug and alcohol abuse than males. Some of this increased risk may be related to behavioral traits, such as impulsivity. Here we examined sex differences in two forms of behavioral impulsivity (inhibitory control and impulsive choice in young men and women, in relation to their level of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems (at-risk or non-risk. Methods: Participants performed a go/no-go task to assess inhibitory control and a measure of delay discounting to assess impulsive choice. Results: On the measure of inhibitory control, at-risk women committed significantly more inhibitory errors than at-risk men, indicating poorer behavioral control among the women. By contrast, no sex differences were observed between at-risk men and women in delay discounting, or between the male and female non-risk drinkers on any measure. Conclusion: Heavy drinking women displayed poorer inhibitory control than heavy drinking men. It remains to be determined whether the sex differences in inhibitory control are the result of drinking, or whether they pre-dated the problematic drinking in these individuals.

The Basel II Accord on Measuring and Managing a Bank's Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Stancu

2007-11-01

Full Text Available The abundance of risk metrics stems from the effort to measure the difference between the expected and actual returns, under a hypothesis of normality. Under the assumption of risk aversion, investors are likely to quantify risk using metrics which measure returns lower than the expected average. These include the semi-variance of returns smaller than the average, the risk of loss – a return under a chosen level, usually 0%, and value-at-risk, for the greatest losses, with a probability of less than 1-5% in a given period of time. The Basel II accord improves on the way risks are measured, by allowing banks greater flexibility. There is an increase in the complexity of measuring credit risks, the market risks measurement methods remain the same, and the measurement of operational risk is introduced for the first time. The most advanced (and widely-used risk metrics are based on VaR. However, it must be noted that VaR calculations are statistical, and therefore unlikely to forecast extraordinary events. So the quality of a VaR calculation must be checked using back-testing, and if the VaR value fails in a percentage of 1-5% of the cases, then the premises of the model must be changed.

Properties of Risk Measures of Generalized Entropy in Portfolio Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rongxi Zhou

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper systematically investigates the properties of six kinds of entropy-based risk measures: Information Entropy and Cumulative Residual Entropy in the probability space, Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy and Sine Entropy in the fuzzy space, and Hybrid Entropy in the hybridized uncertainty of both fuzziness and randomness. We discover that none of the risk measures satisfy all six of the following properties, which various scholars have associated with effective risk measures: Monotonicity, Translation Invariance, Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency and Convexity. Measures based on Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy, and Sine Entropy all exhibit the same properties: Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency, and Convexity. These measures based on Information Entropy and Hybrid Entropy, meanwhile, only exhibit Sub-additivity and Consistency. Cumulative Residual Entropy satisfies just Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, and Convexity. After identifying these properties, we develop seven portfolio models based on different risk measures and made empirical comparisons using samples from both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China and the New York Stock Exchange of America. The comparisons show that the Mean Fuzzy Entropy Model performs the best among the seven models with respect to both daily returns and relative cumulative returns. Overall, these results could provide an important reference for both constructing effective risk measures and rationally selecting the appropriate risk measure under different portfolio selection conditions.

Healthcare workers' challenges in the implementation of tuberculosis infection prevention and control measures in Mozambique

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwer, Miranda; Coelho, Eliana; Mosse, Carla das Dores; Brondi, Luciana; Winterton, Laura; van Leth, Frank

2014-01-01

Healthcare Workers (HCWs) have a higher frequency of TB exposure than the general population and have therefore an occupational TB risk that infection prevention and control (IPC) measures aim to reduce. HCWs are crucial in the implementation of these measures. The objective of the study was to

Use of importance measures in risk-informed regulatory applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheok, Michael C.; Parry, Gareth W.; Sherry, Richard R.

1998-01-01

The use of importance measures to analyze PRA results is discussed. Commonly used importance measures are defined. Some issues that have been identified as potentially limiting their usefulness are addressed, namely: there is no simple relationship between importance measures evaluated at the single component level and those evaluated at the level of a group of components, and, as a result, some of the commonly used importance measures are not realistic measures of the sensitivity of the overall risk to parameter value changes; and, importance measures do not typically take into account parameter uncertainties which raises the question of the robustness of conclusions drawn from importance analyses. The issues are explored in the context of both ranking and categorization of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) with respect to risk-significance and safety-significance for use in risk-informed regulatory analyses

Safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murani, J.

1997-01-01

This paper dealt with the safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'. Problem specification contains: (1) to determine the effective strainer surface needed to be available in order to assure sufficient coolant volumes for a reliable operation of emergency systems; (2) to determine quantity and structure of insulation material which can be dislodged and can induce strained clogging; (3) to verify properties of insulation material with regard to its thermal degradation as a result of a long-term reactor unit operation; (4) to design and erect strainers so to assure sufficient congestion of emergency pump intake lines in post-accident regimes; (5) to design seismically resistant strainers with a capability to resist dynamic impacts from adjacent piping; (6) to assure monitoring of the strainer condition in real time with signals sent to the main control room

Risk-Sensitive Control with Near Monotone Cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biswas, Anup; Borkar, V. S.; Suresh Kumar, K.

2010-01-01

The infinite horizon risk-sensitive control problem for non-degenerate controlled diffusions is analyzed under a 'near monotonicity' condition on the running cost that penalizes large excursions of the process.

Potential sources of bias in the use of Escherichia coli to measure waterborne diarrhoea risk in low-income settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Ercumen, Ayse; Arnold, Benjamin F; Naser, Abu Mohd; Unicomb, Leanne; Colford, John M; Luby, Stephen P

2017-01-01

Escherichia coli is the standard water quality indicator for diarrhoea risk. Yet, the association between E. coli and diarrhoea is inconsistent across studies without a systematic assessment of methodological differences behind this variation. Most studies measure water quality cross-sectionally with diarrhoea, risking exposure misclassification and reverse causation. Studies use different recall windows for self-reported diarrhoea; longer periods increase potential outcome misclassification through misrecall. Control of confounding is inconsistent across studies. Additionally, diarrhoea measured in unblinded intervention trials can present courtesy bias. We utilised measurements from a randomised trial of water interventions in Bangladesh to assess how these factors affect the E. coli-diarrhoea association. We compared cross-sectional versus prospective measurements of water quality and diarrhoea, 2-versus 7-day symptom recall periods, estimates with and without controlling for confounding and using measurements from control versus intervention arms of the trial. In the control arm, 2-day diarrhoea prevalence, measured prospectively 1 month after water quality, significantly increased with log 10 E. coli (PR = 1.50, 1.02-2.20). This association weakened when we used 7-day recall (PR = 1.18, 0.88-1.57), cross-sectional measurements of E. coli and diarrhoea (PR = 1.11, 0.79-1.56) or did not control for confounding (PR = 1.20, 0.88-1.62). Including data from intervention arms led to less interpretable associations, potentially due to courtesy bias, effect modification and/or reverse causation. By systematically addressing potential sources of bias, our analysis demonstrates a clear relationship between E. coli in drinking water and diarrhoea, suggesting that the continued use of E. coli as an indicator of waterborne diarrhoea risk is justified. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Experience with multiple control groups in a large population-based case-control study on genetic and environmental risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Pomp, E R; Van Stralen, K J; Le Cessie, S; Vandenbroucke, J P; Rosendaal, F R; Doggen, C J M

2010-07-01

We discuss the analytic and practical considerations in a large case-control study that had two control groups; the first control group consisting of partners of patients and the second obtained by random digit dialling (RDD). As an example of the evaluation of a general lifestyle factor, we present body mass index (BMI). Both control groups had lower BMIs than the patients. The distribution in the partner controls was closer to that of the patients, likely due to similar lifestyles. A statistical approach was used to pool the results of both analyses, wherein partners were analyzed with a matched analysis, while RDDs were analyzed without matching. Even with a matched analysis, the odds ratio with partner controls remained closer to unity than with RDD controls, which is probably due to unmeasured confounders in the comparison with the random controls as well as intermediary factors. However, when studying injuries as a risk factor, the odds ratio remained higher with partner control subjects than with RRD control subjects, even after taking the matching into account. Finally we used factor V Leiden as an example of a genetic risk factor. The frequencies of factor V Leiden were identical in both control groups, indicating that for the analyses of this genetic risk factor the two control groups could be combined in a single unmatched analysis. In conclusion, the effect measures with the two control groups were in the same direction, and of the same order of magnitude. Moreover, it was not always the same control group that produced the higher or lower estimates, and a matched analysis did not remedy the differences. Our experience with the intricacies of dealing with two control groups may be useful to others when thinking about an optimal research design or the best statistical approach.

THE MEASURABILITY OF CONTROLLING PERFORMANCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Laval

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The urge to increase the performance of company processes is ongoing. Surveys indicate however, that many companies do not measure the controlling performance with a defined set of key performance indicators. This paper will analyze three categories of controlling key performance indicators based on their degree of measurability and their impact on the financial performance of a company. Potential measures to optimize the performance of the controlling department will be outlined and put in a logical order. The aligning of the controlling activity with the respective management expectation will be discussed as a key success factor of this improvement project.

Efficacy of internal control and controlling business risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luminiţa IONESCU

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Companies can gain additional efficiency in designing and implementing or assessing internal control by focusing on only those financial reporting objectives directly applicable to the company’s activities and circumstances, taking a risk based approach to internal control. It is important for any organization to have reliable financial data for internal decision-making purpose. Financial information is often useful in many internal decisions such as product or service pricing. This is why the most important function of the controller is to create and maintain the corporate financial control system. Today’s corporation operates in an increasingly complex environment and the controller’s role is to advice the management of current or future problems of the business environment or to prevent the fraud.

PERFORMANCE IN INTERNAL CONTROL AND RISK MANAGEMENT

OpenAIRE

JELER (POPA) IOANA; FOCŞAN ELEONORA IONELA; CORICI MARIAN CĂTĂLIN

2017-01-01

The purpose of this article is to highlight the importance of internal control and risk management. In practice, economic entities meet a variety of risks that have the origins from the internal environment or the external one. Although there are different of views on addressing the concept of risk - threats or opportunities, event or action, accordingly uncertain, proposed by specialists in risk management in this article we try to present these issues and identify techniques to ...

A Security Risk Measurement for the RAdAC Model

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Britton, David W; Brown, Ian A

2007-01-01

.... The intent is to quantify the risk involved in a single information transaction. Additionally, this thesis will attempt to identify the risk factors involved when calculating the total security risk measurement...

Homocysteine status and cardiovascular risk factors in patients with psoriasis: a case-control study.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Tobin, A-M

2012-02-01

BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a hyperproliferative, cutaneous disorder with the potential to lower levels of folate. This may result in raised levels of homocysteine, an independent risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVE: A study was conducted to compare levels of red-cell folate (RCF) and homocysteine in patients with psoriasis and in healthy controls. Levels of homocysteine were also examined in the context of other major cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: In total, 20 patients with psoriasis and 20 controls had their RCF, homo-cysteine and other conventional cardiovascular risk factors assessed. RESULTS: Patients with psoriasis had a trend towards lower levels of RCF. Significantly raised levels of homocysteine were found in patients with psoriasis compared with controls (P = 0.007). There was no correlation between homocysteine levels, RCF levels or disease activity as measured by the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index. Patients with psoriasis had higher body mass index (P < 0.004) and higher systolic blood pressure (P < 0.001) than controls. This may contribute to the excess cardiovascular mortality observed in patients with psoriasis.

Redundant measurements for controlling errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehinger, M.H.; Crawford, J.M.; Madeen, M.L.

1979-07-01

Current federal regulations for nuclear materials control require consideration of operating data as part of the quality control program and limits of error propagation. Recent work at the BNFP has revealed that operating data are subject to a number of measurement problems which are very difficult to detect and even more difficult to correct in a timely manner. Thus error estimates based on operational data reflect those problems. During the FY 1978 and FY 1979 R and D demonstration runs at the BNFP, redundant measurement techniques were shown to be effective in detecting these problems to allow corrective action. The net effect is a reduction in measurement errors and a significant increase in measurement sensitivity. Results show that normal operation process control measurements, in conjunction with routine accountability measurements, are sensitive problem indicators when incorporated in a redundant measurement program

Model Predictive Control for Integrating Traffic Control Measures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hegyi, A.

2004-01-01

Dynamic traffic control measures, such as ramp metering and dynamic speed limits, can be used to better utilize the available road capacity. Due to the increasing traffic volumes and the increasing number of traffic jams the interaction between the control measures has increased such that local

Soy consumption and risk of COPD and respiratory symptoms: a case-control study in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirayama, Fumi; Lee, Andy H; Binns, Colin W; Zhao, Yun; Hiramatsu, Tetsuo; Tanikawa, Yoshimasa; Nishimura, Koichi; Taniguchi, Hiroyuki

2009-06-26

To investigate the relationship between soy consumption, COPD risk and the prevalence of respiratory symptoms, a case-control study was conducted in Japan. A total of 278 eligible patients (244 men and 34 women), aged 50-75 years with COPD diagnosed within the past four years, were referred by respiratory physicians, while 340 controls (272 men and 68 women) were recruited from the community. All participants underwent spirometric measurements of respiratory function. Information on demographics, lifestyle characteristics and habitual food consumption was obtained using a structured questionnaire. Total soy consumption was positively correlated with observed lung function measures. The mean soy intake was significantly higher among controls (59.98, SD 50.23 g/day) than cases (44.84, SD 28.5 g/day). A significant reduction in COPD risk was evident for highest versus lowest quartile of daily intake of total soybean products, with adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.392, 95% CI 0.194-0.793, p for trend 0.001. Similar decreases in COPD risk were associated with frequent and higher intake of soy foods such as tofu and bean sprouts, whereas respiratory symptoms were inversely associated with high consumption of soy foods, especially for breathlessness (OR 0.989, 95% CI 0.982-0.996). Increasing soy consumption was associated with a decreased risk of COPD and breathlessness.

A hierarchical procedure for calculation of risk importance measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.; Dinsmore, S.C.

1987-01-01

Starting with a general importance definition based on conditional probabilities, a hierarchical process for calculating risk importance measures from a PSA's numerical results is developed. By the appropriate choice of events in the general definition, measures such as the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth can be calculated without requantifying the PSA's models. Required approximations are clearly defined and the subsequent constraints on the applicability of the process discussed. (orig.)

Computer controlled quality of analytical measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, J.P.; Huff, G.A.

1979-01-01

A PDP 11/35 computer system is used in evaluating analytical chemistry measurements quality control data at the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel Plant. This computerized measurement quality control system has several features which are not available in manual systems, such as real-time measurement control, computer calculated bias corrections and standard deviation estimates, surveillance applications, evaluaton of measurement system variables, records storage, immediate analyst recertificaton, and the elimination of routine analysis of known bench standards. The effectiveness of the Barnwell computer system has been demonstrated in gathering and assimilating the measurements of over 1100 quality control samples obtained during a recent plant demonstration run. These data were used to determine equaitons for predicting measurement reliability estimates (bias and precision); to evaluate the measurement system; and to provide direction for modification of chemistry methods. The analytical chemistry measurement quality control activities represented 10% of the total analytical chemistry effort

Work load, job control and risk of leaving work by sickness certification before delivery, Norway 1989.

Science.gov (United States)

Strand, K; Wergeland, E; Bjerkedal, T

1997-09-01

Sickness absence in pregnancy has been shown to be associated with strenuous working conditions and parity. So far, few studies have made adjustments for possible interaction and confounding. Such adjustments are needed to more precisely identify targets for preventive measures. We have, therefore, in a representative population of pregnant employees in Norway 1989, computed adjusted odds ratios for leaving work by sickness absence more than three (LSC > 3) and eight (LSC > 8) weeks before delivery according to working conditions identified as risk factors in earlier studies; adjusted for job control, domestic conditions and sickness absence the year prior to pregnancy. The cumulative percentage of LSC > 8 and LSC > 3 was 26.4 and 51.1. Ergonomically strenuous postures and heavy lifting increased the risk of both outcomes. In addition, shift work and hectic work pace increased the risk of LSC > 3. Influence on breaks reduced risk. Only para experienced reduced risk of LSC when working part-time. Sicklisting the year prior to pregnancy had no confounding effect, which suggest that pregnancy represents a new incompatibility with work. Preventive measures should address work postures and heavy lifting, as well as conditions influencing the woman's control with her time.

PERFORMANCE IN INTERNAL CONTROL AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JELER (POPA IOANA

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to highlight the importance of internal control and risk management. In practice, economic entities meet a variety of risks that have the origins from the internal environment or the external one. Although there are different of views on addressing the concept of risk - threats or opportunities, event or action, accordingly uncertain, proposed by specialists in risk management in this article we try to present these issues and identify techniques to counter risks occurrence. In this article we present also means managing risk and why needs to be implemented at institutional level a risk management. The paper concludes by highlight the role of efficient risk management in the company’s management and company's activities.

Effect of internal controls on credit risk among listed Spanish banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The paper examines the effectiveness of internal control systems, explores the exposure of Spanish banks to the dangers of default as a result of internal control systems and establishes a relationship between internal controls and credit risk. Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative research approach is used to test hypotheses on the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in Spain. Data from Bankscope and company websites from 2004-2013 were used. Generalized Least Squares (random effect econometric estimation technique was used for the model. Findings: We find that internal control systems are in place but their effectiveness cannot be guaranteed. This exposes Spanish listed banks to serious default situations. There is significant effect of internal controls on credit risk especially the control environment, risk management, control activities and monitoring. The non-disclosure of material internal control weakness is a contributory factor to the ineffective internal control systems. There is however a perceived board ineffectiveness which does not augur well for effective internal control systems. Board characteristics for Spanish banks confirm the agency theory. Research Limitations and Implications: Data unavailability for certain years, variables and many inactive banks did not permit a larger sample size than expected. The use of quantitative variables lacks flexibility. Practical Implications: Bank management will find the work useful to ensure strict enforcement of internal control mechanisms and see it as both credit risk and operational risk issues. Central bank should hurry to compel banks to disclose material internal control weakness as provided in the reviewed COSO framework. Social Implications: Ineffective internal controls lead to credit risks, bank closure and loss of investments. Society suffers a lot from such losses and contagion. Disclosure of material internal control

Measuring the quality of infection control in Dutch nursing homes using a standardized method; the Infection prevention RIsk Scan (IRIS)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Willemsen, I.; Nelson-Melching, J.; Hendriks, Y.; Mulders, A.; Verhoeff, S.; Kluytmans-Vandenbergh, M.; Kluytmans, J.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: We developed a standardised method to assess the quality of infection control in Dutch Nursing Home (NH), based on a cross-sectional survey that visualises the results. The method was called the Infection control RIsk Infection Scan (IRIS). We tested the applicability of this new tool in

Out-of-office blood pressure: from measurement to control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baguet JP

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Jean-Philippe Baguet1,21Department of Cardiology, University Hospital, 2Bioclinic Radiopharmaceutics Laboratory, INSERM U1039, Joseph Fourier University, Grenoble, FranceAbstract: Hypertension is an important risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease, and is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Traditionally, hypertension diagnosis and treatment and clinical evaluations of antihypertensive efficacy have been based on office blood pressure (BP measurements; however, there is increasing evidence that office measures may provide inadequate or misleading estimates of a patient’s true BP status and level of cardiovascular risk. The introduction, and endorsement by treatment guidelines, of 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring and self (or home BP monitoring has facilitated more reliable and reproducible estimations of true BP, including the identification of white-coat and masked hypertension, and evaluation of BP variability. In addition, ambulatory BP monitoring enables accurate assessment of treatment effectiveness over 24 hours and both ambulatory and self BP monitoring may lead to better tailoring of therapy according to BP profile and concomitant disease. This review describes the clinical benefits and limitations of out-of-office assessments and their applications for effective management of hypertension and attainment of BP control.Keywords: ambulatory, ABPM, SBPM, blood pressure measurement, hypertension

Risk factors associated with lipomyelomeningocele: a case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Esmaeili, Arash; Hanaei, Sara; Fadakar, Kaveh; Dadkhah, Sahar; Arjipour, Mahdi; Habibi, Zohreh; Nejat, Farideh; El Khashab, Mostafa

2013-01-01

In general, it seems that both genetic and environmental factors play important roles in the induction of neural tube defects. Lipomyelomeningocele (LipoMMC) is a rather common type of closed neural tube defect, but only limited studies have investigated the potential risk factors of this anomaly. Therefore, the purpose of this case-control study was to investigate the risk factors involved in LipoMMC formation. Various risk factors were evaluated in 35 children between 1 month and 10 years of age with LipoMMC in a hospital-based case-control study. The 2 control arms consisted of 35 children with myelomeningocele (MMC group) and 35 children with congenital anomalies other than central nervous system problems (control group). All groups were matched for age and visited the same hospital. A structured questionnaire was used for the collection of all data, including the mothers' weight and height during pregnancy, education, reproductive history, previous abortions, and socioeconomic status, as well as the parents' consanguinity and family history of the same anomalies. Univariate analysis of the children with LipoMMC compared to the control group showed that the use of periconceptional folic acid supplementation was significantly lower in the MMC and LipoMMC groups compared to the control group. In addition, comparison of the MMC and control groups revealed statistically significant differences regarding the use of folic acid and maternal obesity. In multivariate analysis, use of folic acid in the periconceptional period and during the first trimester was an independent risk factor for LipoMMC and MMC. Furthermore, maternal obesity was a significantly positive risk factor for MMC. The probable risk factors for LipoMMC were investigated in this case-control study. Consumption of folic acid in the periconceptional period and during the first trimester is an independent protective factor against LipoMMC. It seems that larger studies are needed to examine other possible

Beyond dual systems: A genetically-informed, latent factor model of behavioral and self-report measures related to adolescent risk-taking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Paige Harden

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The dual systems model posits that adolescent risk-taking results from an imbalance between a cognitive control system and an incentive processing system. Researchers interested in understanding the development of adolescent risk-taking use a diverse array of behavioral and self-report measures to index cognitive control and incentive processing. It is currently unclear whether different measures commonly interpreted as indicators of the same psychological construct do, in fact, tap the same underlying dimension of individual differences. In a diverse sample of 810 adolescent twins and triplets (M age = 15.9 years, SD = 1.4 years from the Texas Twin Project, we investigated the factor structure of fifteen self-report and task-based measures relevant to adolescent risk-taking. These measures can be organized into four factors, which we labeled premeditation, fearlessness, cognitive dyscontrol, and reward seeking. Most behavioral measures contained large amounts of task-specific variance; however, most genetic variance in each measure was shared with other measures of the corresponding factor. Behavior genetic analyses further indicated that genetic influences on cognitive dyscontrol overlapped nearly perfectly with genetic influences on IQ (rA = −0.91. These findings underscore the limitations of using single laboratory tasks in isolation, and indicate that the study of adolescent risk taking will benefit from applying multimethod approaches.

Risk Importance Measures in the Designand Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vrbanic I.; Samanta P.; Basic, I

2017-10-31

This monograph presents and discusses risk importance measures as quantified by the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models of nuclear power plants (NPPs) developed according to the current standards and practices. Usually, PRA tools calculate risk importance measures related to a single ?basic event? representing particular failure mode. This is, then, reflected in many current PRA applications. The monograph focuses on the concept of ?component-level? importance measures that take into account different failure modes of the component including common-cause failures (CCFs). In opening sections the roleof risk assessment in safety analysis of an NPP is introduced and discussion given of ?traditional?, mainly deterministic, design principles which have been established to assign a level of importance to a particular system, structure or component. This is followed by an overview of main risk importance measures for risk increase and risk decrease from current PRAs. Basic relations which exist among the measures are shown. Some of the current practical applications of risk importancemeasures from the field of NPP design, operation and regulation are discussed. The core of the monograph provides a discussion on theoreticalbackground and practical aspects of main risk importance measures at the level of ?component? as modeled in a PRA, starting from the simplest case, single basic event, and going toward more complexcases with multiple basic events and involvements in CCF groups. The intent is to express the component-level importance measures via theimportance measures and probabilities of the underlying single basic events, which are the inputs readily available from a PRA model andits results. Formulas are derived and discussed for some typical cases. The formulas and their results are demonstrated through some practicalexamples, done by means of a simplified PRA model developed in and run by RiskSpectrum? tool, which are presented in the appendices. The

Journal Afrika Statistika ISSN 0852-0305 Distortion risk measures ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

la somme et sur la structure de dépendance des risques, représentée par une copule. ... Key words: Coherence; Dependence structure; Distortion function; Risk measure; Risk theory; insurance; Wang ..... Weighted risk capital allocations.

A case-control study on risk of changing food consumption for colorectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Bing; Li, Xiangping; Nakama, Hidenori; Zhang, Xing; Wei, Ning; Zhang, Xiulan; Zhang, Leshan

2002-01-01

To investigate the relative risk factor of food items for colorectal cancer in four time periods through a case-control study in a Chinese rural area. Colorectal cancer patients diagnosed at a county cancer center, Hebei Province, China, and non-cancer outpatients with similar age, sex, and place of residence were selected for cases and controls, respectively. There were 102 (93.6%) colorectal cancer patients and 99 (90.8%) outpatients being the cases and controls, respectively in the present investigation, who agreed to be interviewed about their food intake, during a 20-year period, through a food frequency questionnaire. The risks of intake of different food items and lifestyle for colorectal cancer were compared between cases and controls. During the 20-year period, diets of both cases and controls changed with increase in intake of animal foods and fruits, and alcohol consumption tended to increase. In the food items, milk intake showed a protective effect in both males and females, and the odds ratios were 0.38 (95% CI 0.16-0.90) and 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.81) for males and females, respectively. A reduced risk of fruit intake could be seen in males, while a reduced risk of vegetables could be observed in females. Meat intake and saturated fats were the prominent risk factors for colorectal cancer in males and females, respectively. A comparison of life habits, showed that tea drinking had a consistent protective effect in females, and the odds ratios were 0.21 (0.08-0.58), 0.23 (0.08-0.67), 0.25 (0.10-0.64), and 0.11 (0.04-0.30) for periods of 20-, 10-, 5-years ago, and current time, respectively. These findings indicate that change in food consumption is strongly associated with a change in risk of colorectal cancer, and dietary meat has increased the risk of colorectal cancer. Increase in the consumption of milk and fruits may be a significant measure for colorectal cancer prevention in low-incidence areas.

Latent-failure risk estimates for computer control

Science.gov (United States)

Dunn, William R.; Folsom, Rolfe A.; Green, Owen R.

1991-01-01

It is shown that critical computer controls employing unmonitored safety circuits are unsafe. Analysis supporting this result leads to two additional, important conclusions: (1) annual maintenance checks of safety circuit function do not, as widely believed, eliminate latent failure risk; (2) safety risk remains even if multiple, series-connected protection circuits are employed. Finally, it is shown analytically that latent failure risk is eliminated when continuous monitoring is employed.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

Importance measures for use in PRAs and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt, E.R.; Jamali, K.M.; Parry, G.W.; Gibbon, S.H.

1985-01-01

There are many quantities estimated in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) to index the level of plant safety. If the PRA is to be used as a risk management tool to assist in the safe operation of the plant, it is essential that those elements of the plant design and its mode of operation that have the greatest impact on plant safety be identified. These elements may be identified by performing importance calculations. There are certain decisions that must be made before the importance calculation is carried out. The first is the definition of the events for which importance is to be evaluated; that is, to what level of resolution the analysis is to be performed. The second decision that must be made--and the major subject of this paper--is the choice of importance measure. Many measures of importance have been proposed; this discussion is restricted to three: the risk achievement (or degradation) worth, the risk reduction worth, and criticality importance. In the paper these measures of importance are defined, their interrelationships are discussed, and a generalized importance measure is introduced. The use of these three measures is compared and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed

Solution of resource allocation problem for identification of cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

2013-01-01

This report presents a methodology of selection of cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks. The methodology relies on a graded security model used in practice in different applications. The method is based on the controlled finite Markov chain approach set in combination with discrete dynamic programming and MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making) techniques that enables the expert to select the cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks depending on availability of resources. The analysis performed with different number of possible measures confirms the conclusions that the implementation of extra-large costs may not produce the required effect, and the increase in resources above a certain level does not appear sensitive. Diversification in improving the effectiveness of other measures seems more rational and efficient for the whole system than the unlimited improvement of the effectiveness of only one measure

Solution of resource allocation problem for identification of cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I. [Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering, Studgorodok 1, Obninsk, Kaluga region 249030 (Russian Federation)

2013-07-01

This report presents a methodology of selection of cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks. The methodology relies on a graded security model used in practice in different applications. The method is based on the controlled finite Markov chain approach set in combination with discrete dynamic programming and MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making) techniques that enables the expert to select the cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks depending on availability of resources. The analysis performed with different number of possible measures confirms the conclusions that the implementation of extra-large costs may not produce the required effect, and the increase in resources above a certain level does not appear sensitive. Diversification in improving the effectiveness of other measures seems more rational and efficient for the whole system than the unlimited improvement of the effectiveness of only one measure.

Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldschmidt, H.; Gorson, R.O.; Lassen, M.

1983-01-01

Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life

Temporal patterns of lung cancer risk from radon and smoking - consequences to remediation measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomasek, L.

2004-01-01

Studies of uranium miners conducted since the late 1960s demonstrated that the risk depends on cumulated exposure in terms of working level months (WLM) integrating both duration of exposure and concentration of radon. It has been also demonstrated that the risk from radon decreases with time since exposure. The present analysis of temporal changes of relative risk is based on a model where the total individual exposure is partitioned into components in dependence on time. Exposure to radon is studied in a cohort of 9411 Czech uranium miners with 766 cases of lung cancer and in a residential study of 11 803 inhabitants exposed to radon in houses with 218 cases. In addition, temporal patterns of the risk from smoking are analyzed in a case-control study of patients from a major Prague hospital including 566 cases. For both carcinogens, the relative risk decreases with time since exposure. The risk from exposures before 20-34 years is 36% and 34% in comparison to period 5-19 for smoking and radon, respectively. The effect of exposures from more distant periods 35-49 is only 5% for smoking and 14% for radon in comparison to 5-19 years. This substantial decrease of relative risk with time may contribute to a better evaluation of remediation measures taken in houses and in the cost effectiveness of remediation. Combined effect of smoking and radon is studied by a nested case-control approach including 434 cases and 962 controls. Analyses of the joint effects of smoking and radon, conducted in the occupational and the residential studies, suggest a sub-multiplicative interaction. The relative risk from radon among non-smokers is higher by a factor of 2-3 in comparison to smokers, suggesting different patterns of lung deposition and clearance among smokers and non-smokers. (author)

Automated Risk Control in Medical Imaging Equipment Management Using Cloud Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sally M. Ghanem

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Medical imaging equipment (MIE is the baseline of providing patient diagnosis in healthcare facilities. However, that type of equipment poses high risk for patients, operators, and environment in terms of technology and application. Considering risk management in MIE management is rarely covered in literature. The study proposes a methodology that controls risks associated with MIE management. The methodology is based on proposing a set of key performance indicators (KPIs that lead to identify a set of undesired events (UDEs, and through a risk matrix, a risk level is evaluated. By using cloud computing software, risks could be controlled to be manageable. The methodology was verified by using a data set of 204 pieces of MIE along 104 hospitals, which belong to Egyptian Ministry of Health. Results point to appropriateness of proposed KPIs and UDEs in risk evaluation and control. Thus, the study reveals that optimizing risks taking into account the costs has an impact on risk control of MIE management.

Prenatal and perinatal risk factors and testicular cancer: a hospital-based case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sonke, Gabe S; Chang, Shine; Strom, Sara S; Sweeney, Anne M; Annegers, J Fred; Sigurdson, Alice J

2007-01-01

Some evidence exists to support the hypothesis that elevated levels of circulating maternal estrogens during early pregnancy may increase risk of testicular germ cell cancer. However, the results from studies evaluating maternal factors have been mixed. We evaluated maternal factors, particularly those associated with excess estrogen levels, as risk factors for testicular cancer. We conducted a hospital-based case-control study at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas of 144 testicular cancer patients diagnosed between 1990 and 1996 and 86 friend controls matched to cases on age, race, and state of residence. Risk factor data about the mother, the son, and the pregnancy were obtained from the mothers by telephone interviews and from the sons by self-administered questionnaires. Extreme nausea during the first trimester of pregnancy was associated with an elevated risk of testicular cancer [odds ratio (OR) = 2.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.0-3.9]. Adjustment for potential confounders slightly lowered this risk (OR = 1.8; 95% CI = 0.9-3.8). Risks were modestly increased for other factors that are proxy measures for maternal estrogens, including preterm delivery (OR = 2.2; 95% CI = 0.4-12.9), birth weight 4000 g (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 0.9-3.2), albeit nonsignificantly so. Our finding that severe nausea was associated with increased testicular cancer risk adds evidence to support the in utero estrogen exposure hypothesis because nausea early in pregnancy is related to rising levels of circulating estrogens. For other factors, which are less direct measures of maternal estrogens, the modest associations found indicate a suggestive pattern in support of the excess estrogen hypothesis.

Use of risk importance measures in maintenance prioritization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dubreil Chambardel, A.; Ardorino, F.; Mauger, P.

1997-01-01

A RCM method has been developed at EDF since 1990 to optimize maintenance through a prioritization of resources for equipment that are important in terms of safety, availability and maintenance costs. In 1994, the Nuclear Power Plant Operations Division decided to apply this method to the most important systems of the French PWRs. About 50 systems are in the scope of the RCM. Those that have a role in safety were ranked depending on their contribution to the risk of core melt provided by PSAs. The RCM studies on the 20 most important to safety systems are performed by the Nuclear Power Plant Operations division, the other 30 systems are studied on sites. The RCM study consists first in the research of equipment and failures modes significant to safety, availability or maintenance costs and the evaluation of the performance of those equipment. Those studies lead to the distinction of equipment and failure modes that are critical or non critical to safety, availability and costs. The last part of the study consists in optimizing maintenance on those equipment. In this process, risk measures are used to help defining equipment and failure modes critical to safety. This is done by calculation of risk importance measures provided by PSAs. We explain in this paper which measures of risk have been defined, how PSAs allow calculation of those measures, and how we used those results in the RCM studies we processed. We give also extensions of the use of those measures in the process of defining optimized maintenance tasks. After having defined a RCM method for the French PWRs, the Nuclear Power plant Operations Division decided to start a generalized program of maintenance optimization for the most important systems. The three criteria on which the method relies are: safety, unit availability and maintenance costs. We present here the safety aspect of the method and more precisely these of risk importance measures in the RCM process. (author)

Measurement control program for nuclear material accounting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brouns, R.J.; Roberts, F.P.; Merrill, J.A.; Brown, W.B.

1980-06-01

A measurement control program for nuclear material accounting monitors and controls the quality of the measurments of special nuclear material that are involved in material balances. The quality is monitored by collecting data from which the current precision and accuracy of measurements can be evaluated. The quality is controlled by evaluations, reviews, and other administrative measures for control of selection or design of facilities, equipment and measurement methods and the training and qualification of personnel who perform SNM measurements. This report describes the most important elements of a program by which management can monitor and control measurement quality

Application of REVEAL-W to risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dezfuli, H.; Meyer, J.; Modarres, M.

1994-01-01

Over the past two years, the concept of risk-based configuration control has been introduced to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the nuclear industry. Converting much of the current, deterministically based regulation of nuclear power plants to risk-based regulation can result in lower levels of risk while relieving unnecessary burdens on power plant operators and regulatory staff. To achieve the potential benefits of risk-based configuration control, the risk models developed for nuclear power plants should be (1) flexible enough to effectively support necessary risk calculations, and (2) transparent enough to encourage their use by all parties. To address these needs, SCIENTECH, Inc., has developed the PC-based REVEAL W (formerly known as SMART). This graphic-oriented and user-friendly application software allows the user to develop transparent complex logic models based on the concept of the master plant logic diagram. The logic model is success-oriented and compact. The analytical capability built into REVEAL W is generic, so the software can support different types of risk-based evaluations, such as probabilistic safety assessment, accident sequence precursor analysis, design evaluation and configuration management. In this paper, we focus on the application of REVEAL W to support risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plants. (author)

Measuring device for control rod driving time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Kazuhiko; Hanabusa, Masatoshi.

1993-01-01

The present invention concerns a measuring device for control driving time having a function capable of measuring a selected control rod driving time and measuring an entire control rod driving time simultaneously. A calculation means and a store means for the selected rod control rod driving time, and a calculation means and a store means for the entire control rod driving time are disposed individually. Each of them measures the driving time and stores the data independent of each other based on a selected control rod insert ion signal and an entire control rod insertion signal. Even if insertion of selected and entire control rods overlaps, each of the control rod driving times can be measured reliably to provide an advantageous effect capable of more accurately conducting safety evaluation for the nuclear reactor based on the result of the measurement. (N.H.)

H. pylori seroprevalence and risk of diabetes: An ancillary case-control study nested in the diabetes prevention program.

Science.gov (United States)

Alzahrani, Saud; Nelson, Jason; Moss, Steven F; Paulus, Jessica K; Knowler, William C; Pittas, Anastassios G

2017-10-01

To determine the association between H. pylori infection and risk of incident diabetes in adults at high risk for diabetes who participated in the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) study. In a nested case-control study conducted among 421 adults with newly diagnosed diabetes and 421 matched controls, we examined the association between serological status of H. pylori at baseline and risk of incident diabetes over a mean follow-up period of 2.6years. Using data from the baseline visit of the DPP, we also examined the cross-sectional association between presence of H. pylori antibodies and insulin sensitivity, insulin secretion and the disposition index-like measure after a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). At baseline, H. pylori antibodies were present in 40% of participants who developed diabetes and 39% of controls. After adjusting for matching factors, there was no association between exposure to H. pylori and incident diabetes (odds ratio [OR] of 1.04 (95% CI, 0.77 to 1.40). In cross-sectional analyses, H. pylori status was not significantly associated with insulin sensitivity and disposition index-like measure from OGTT. In adults at high risk for diabetes, H. pylori seropositivity was not associated with risk of developing diabetes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Documentation of body mass index and control of associated risk factors in a large primary care network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grant Richard W

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Body mass index (BMI will be a reportable health measure in the United States (US through implementation of Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS guidelines. We evaluated current documentation of BMI, and documentation and control of associated risk factors by BMI category, based on electronic health records from a 12-clinic primary care network. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 79,947 active network patients greater than 18 years of age seen between 7/05 - 12/06. We defined BMI category as normal weight (NW, 18-24.9 kg/m2, overweight (OW, 25-29.9, and obese (OB, ≥ 30. We measured documentation (yes/no and control (above/below of the following three risk factors: blood pressure (BP ≤130/≤85 mmHg, low-density lipoprotein (LDL ≤130 mg/dL (3.367 mmol/L, and fasting glucose Results BMI was documented in 48,376 patients (61%, range 34-94%, distributed as 30% OB, 34% OW, and 36% NW. Documentation of all three risk factors was higher in obesity (OB = 58%, OW = 54%, NW = 41%, p for trend Conclusions In a large primary care network BMI documentation has been incomplete and for patients with BMI measured, risk factor control has been poorer in obese patients compared with NW, even in those with obesity and CVD or diabetes. Better knowledge of BMI could provide an opportunity for improved quality in obesity care.

Influences of Regional Development on Land Use of Nagara Basin and Flood Risk Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Banba Michiko

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Land developments, and construction of factories or logistic centers should be implemented with the wellconsidered land use plans by taking account of disaster risks to improve the resilience of region to mitigate damages. In this paper, the relationship between regional development and land use from the perspective of flood risk control. Nagara basin in Gifu prefecture (Gifu, Mino, and Seki City, where transportation network has been developed to raise the potential for more development, is selected as a case study site. First, changes of industrial structures of the region and its influences on land use were analyzed. Then, possible flood control measures were summarized, and issues from the land use perspective are analysed

A Risk Management Architecture for Emergency Integrated Aircraft Control

Science.gov (United States)

McGlynn, Gregory E.; Litt, Jonathan S.; Lemon, Kimberly A.; Csank, Jeffrey T.

2011-01-01

Enhanced engine operation--operation that is beyond normal limits--has the potential to improve the adaptability and safety of aircraft in emergency situations. Intelligent use of enhanced engine operation to improve the handling qualities of the aircraft requires sophisticated risk estimation techniques and a risk management system that spans the flight and propulsion controllers. In this paper, an architecture that weighs the risks of the emergency and of possible engine performance enhancements to reduce overall risk to the aircraft is described. Two examples of emergency situations are presented to demonstrate the interaction between the flight and propulsion controllers to facilitate the enhanced operation.

Importance of sustained and "tight" blood pressure control in patients with high cardiovascular risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Meredith, Peter A; Lloyd, Suzanne M; Ford, Ian; Elliott, Henry L

2016-01-01

A retrospective further analysis of the ACTION database evaluated the relationship between cardiovascular outcomes and the "quality" of the control of blood pressure (BP). The study population (n = 6287) comprised those patients with four BP measurements during year 1 subdivided according to the proportion of visits in which BP was controlled in relation to two BP targets: control groups for the major prespecified ACTION outcomes were investigated with Cox proportional hazards models. For all the prespecified cardiovascular endpoints the incidence declined as the proportion of visits with BP control increased. The greatest differences in outcomes between the different BP control groups were observed for the risk of stroke but were still apparent for all the other endpoints. For example, the risks for the primary outcome [hazard ratio (HR) 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.90] were significantly less in the group with >_75% of visits with BP control than in the group with control. There were no significant treatment-related differences. Retrospective analyses are not definitive but these results highlight the importance of the attainment of BP control targets and the consistency of BP control during long-term follow-up.

Improving measurement of injection drug risk behavior using item response theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Janulis, Patrick

2014-03-01

Recent research highlights the multiple steps to preparing and injecting drugs and the resultant viral threats faced by drug users. This research suggests that more sensitive measurement of injection drug HIV risk behavior is required. In addition, growing evidence suggests there are gender differences in injection risk behavior. However, the potential for differential item functioning between genders has not been explored. To explore item response theory as an improved measurement modeling technique that provides empirically justified scaling of injection risk behavior and to examine for potential gender-based differential item functioning. Data is used from three studies in the National Institute on Drug Abuse's Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. A two-parameter item response theory model was used to scale injection risk behavior and logistic regression was used to examine for differential item functioning. Item fit statistics suggest that item response theory can be used to scale injection risk behavior and these models can provide more sensitive estimates of risk behavior. Additionally, gender-based differential item functioning is present in the current data. Improved measurement of injection risk behavior using item response theory should be encouraged as these models provide increased congruence between construct measurement and the complexity of injection-related HIV risk. Suggestions are made to further improve injection risk behavior measurement. Furthermore, results suggest direct comparisons of composite scores between males and females may be misleading and future work should account for differential item functioning before comparing levels of injection risk behavior.

Toward risk assessment 2.0: Safety supervisory control and model-based hazard monitoring for risk-informed safety interventions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Favarò, Francesca M.; Saleh, Joseph H.

2016-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a staple in the engineering risk community, and it has become to some extent synonymous with the entire quantitative risk assessment undertaking. Limitations of PRA continue to occupy researchers, and workarounds are often proposed. After a brief review of this literature, we propose to address some of PRA's limitations by developing a novel framework and analytical tools for model-based system safety, or safety supervisory control, to guide safety interventions and support a dynamic approach to risk assessment and accident prevention. Our work shifts the emphasis from the pervading probabilistic mindset in risk assessment toward the notions of danger indices and hazard temporal contingency. The framework and tools here developed are grounded in Control Theory and make use of the state-space formalism in modeling dynamical systems. We show that the use of state variables enables the definition of metrics for accident escalation, termed hazard levels or danger indices, which measure the “proximity” of the system state to adverse events, and we illustrate the development of such indices. Monitoring of the hazard levels provides diagnostic information to support both on-line and off-line safety interventions. For example, we show how the application of the proposed tools to a rejected takeoff scenario provides new insight to support pilots’ go/no-go decisions. Furthermore, we augment the traditional state-space equations with a hazard equation and use the latter to estimate the times at which critical thresholds for the hazard level are (b)reached. This estimation process provides important prognostic information and produces a proxy for a time-to-accident metric or advance notice for an impending adverse event. The ability to estimate these two hazard coordinates, danger index and time-to-accident, offers many possibilities for informing system control strategies and improving accident prevention and risk mitigation

Introduction to control system performance measurements

CERN Document Server

Garner, K C

1968-01-01

Introduction to Control System Performance Measurements presents the methods of dynamic measurements, specifically as they apply to control system and component testing. This book provides an introduction to the concepts of statistical measurement methods.Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of the applications of automatic control systems that pervade almost every area of activity ranging from servomechanisms to electrical power distribution networks. This text then discusses the common measurement transducer functions. Other chapters consider the basic wave

Simplifying the audit of risk factor recording and control: A report from an international study in 11 countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Min; Cooney, Marie Therese; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin; Vaartjes, Ilonca; De Bacquer, Dirk; De Sutter, Johan; Reiner, Željko; Prescott, Eva; Faggiano, Pompilio; Vanuzzo, Diego; AlFaleh, Hussam; Menown, Ian Ba; Gait, Dan; Posogova, Nana; Sheu, Wayne H-H; Zhao, Dong; Zuo, Huijuan; Grobbee, Diederick E; Graham, Ian M

2016-07-01

To simplify the assessment of the recording and control of coronary heart disease risk factors in different countries and regions. The SUrvey of Risk Factors (SURF) is an international clinical audit. Data on consecutive patients with established coronary heart disease from countries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East were collected on a one-page collection sheet or electronically during routine clinic visits. Information on demographics, diagnostic category, risk factors, physical and laboratory measurements, and medications were included and key variables summarized in a Cardiovascular Health Index Score. Coronary heart disease patients (N = 10,186; 29% women) were enrolled from 79 centres in 11 countries. Recording of risk factors varied considerably: smoking was recorded in over 98% of subjects, while about 20% lacked data on laboratory measurements relevant to cardiovascular disease risk. Sixteen per cent of participants reported smoking, 29% were obese, and 46% had abdominal obesity. Sixty per cent of participants had blood pressure control of risk factors with substantial variation between countries, calling for development and implementation of clinical standards of secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. © The European Society of Cardiology 2016.

Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: 13 collaborative analyses of individual data from European case-control studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darby, S.; Hill, D.; Doll, R.; Auvinen, A.; Barros Dios, J.M.; Ruano Ravina, A.; Baysson, H.; Tirmarche, M.; Bochicchio, F.; Deo, H.; Falk, R.; Forastiere, F.; Hakama, M.; Heid, I.; Schaffrath Rosario, A.; Wichmann, H.E.; Kreienbrock, L.; Kreuzer, M.; Lagarde, F.; Pershagen, G.; Makelainen, I.; Ruosteenoja, E.; Muirhead, C.; Oberaigner, W.; TomaBek, L.; Whitley, E.

2007-01-01

Objective: To determine the risk of lung cancer associated with exposure at home to the radioactive disintegration products of naturally occurring radon gas. Design: Collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 case-control studies of residential radon and lung cancer. Setting: Nine European countries. Subjects: 7148 cases of lung cancer and 14 208 controls. Main outcome measures: Relative risks of lung cancer and radon gas concentrations in homes inhabited during the previous 5-34 years measured in becquerels (radon disintegrations per second) per cubic metre (Bq/m3) of household air. Results: The mean measured radon concentration in homes of people in the control group was 97 Bq/m3, with 11% measuring > 200 and 4% measuring > 400 Bq/m3. For cases of lung cancer the mean concentration was 104 Bq/m3. The risk of lung cancer increased by 8.4% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 15.8%) per 100 Bq/m3 increase in measured radon (P=0.0007). This corresponds to an increase of 16% (5% to 31%) per 100 Bq/m3 increase in usual radon- that is, after correction for the dilution caused by random uncertainties in measuring radon concentrations. The dose-response relation seemed to be linear with no threshold and remained significant (P = 0.04) in analyses limited to individuals from homes with measured radon < 200 Bq/m3. The proportionate excess risk did not differ significantly with study, age, sex, or smoking. In the absence of other causes of death, the absolute risks of lung cancer by age 75 years at usual radon concentrations of 0, 100, and 400 Bq/m3 would be about 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.7%, respectively, for lifelong non-smokers, and about 25 times greater (10%, 12%, and 16%) for cigarette smokers. Conclusions: Collectively, though not separately, these studies show appreciable hazards from residential radon, particularly for smokers and recent ex-smokers, and indicate that it is responsible for about 2% of all deaths from cancer in Europe. (author)

Risk management in architectural design control of uncertainty over building use and maintenance

CERN Document Server

Martani, Claudio

2015-01-01

This book analyzes the risk management process in relation to building design and operation and on this basis proposes a method and a set of tools that will improve the planning and evaluation of design solutions in order to control risks in the operation and management phase. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between design choices and the long-term performance of buildings in meeting requirements expressing user and client needs. A risk dashboard is presented as a risk measurement framework that identifies and addresses areas of uncertainty surrounding the satisfaction of particularly relevant requirements over time. This risk dashboard will assist both designers and clients. It will support designers by enabling them to improve the maintainability of project performance and will aid clients both in devising a brief that emphasizes the most relevant aspects of maintainability and in evaluating project proposals according to long-term risks. The results of assessment of the proposed method and...

Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Ari S; Reid, Kim R; Pollock, Margaret C; Campleman, Sharan L

2012-01-01

Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate

Radiation measurements and quality control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McLaughlin, W.L.

1977-01-01

Accurate measurements are essential to research leading to a successful radiation process and to the commissioning of the process and the facility. On the other hand, once the process is in production, the importance to quality control of measuring radiation quantities (i.e., absorbed dose, dose rate, dose distribution) rather than various other parameters of the process (i.e. conveyor speed, dwell time, radiation field characteristics, product dimensions) is not clearly established. When the safety of the product is determined by the magnitude of the administered dose, as in radiation sterilization, waste control, or food preservation, accuracy and precision of the measurement of the effective dose are vital. Since physical dose measurements are usually simpler, more reliable and reproducible than biological testing of the product, there is a trend toward using standardized dosimetry for quality control of some processes. In many industrial products, however, such as vulcanized rubber, textiles, plastics, coatings, films, wire and cable, the effective dose can be controlled satisfactorily by controlling process variables or by product testing itself. In the measurement of radiation dose profiles by dosimetry, it is necessary to have suitable dose meter calibrations, to account for sources of error and imprecision, and to use correct statistical procedures in specifying dwell times or conveyor speeds and source and product parameters to achieve minimum and maximum doses within specifications. (author)

Prevalence of malaria and use of malaria risk reduction measures among resettled pregnant women in South Sudan

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dræbel, Tania; Gueth Kueil, Bill; Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf

2013-01-01

Background: The study assessed aspects of malaria infection, prevention and treatment in a population of resettled pregnant women in South Sudan. Methods: During April and May 2008, a cross-sectional study was carried out to estimate malaria prevalence and to assess the use of malaria risk...... ¼ 3.20, 95% CI 1.26–8.16; p ¼ 0.015). Conclusions: The results suggest that educational attainment need not be very advanced to affect practices of malaria prevention and treatment. Primary school attendance was a stronger predictor for use of malaria risk reduction measures than any of the other...... selected background characteristics. Educational attainment, information and communication about malaria prevention and control play a pivotal role in increasing and improving use of malaria risk reduction measures....

One Idea of Portfolio Risk Control Focusing on States of Correlation

Science.gov (United States)

Nishiyama, Noboru

2004-04-01

In the modern portfolio theory there are 2 major risk parameters that mean and variance. Correlations should be playing important role as well but variance is thought to be most important risk parameter for risk control in the theory. I focused on states of correlation to calculate eigen values as risk control parameter.

Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Loebnitz, K.

2011-01-01

Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and

On the interplay between distortion, mean value and Haezendonck-Goovaerts risk measures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goovaerts, M.J.; Linders, D.; van Weert, K.; Tank, F.

2012-01-01

In the actuarial research, distortion, mean value and Haezendonck-Goovaerts risk measures are concepts that are usually treated separately. In this paper we indicate and characterize the relation between these different risk measures, as well as their relation to convex risk measures. While it is

Risk factors for gallbladder cancer: a case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Kajal; Sreenivas, V; Velpandian, T; Kapil, Umesh; Garg, Pramod Kumar

2013-04-01

Risk factors for gallbladder cancer (GBC) except gallstones are not well known. The objective was to study the risk factors for GBC. In a case-control study, 200 patients with GBC, 200 healthy controls and 200 gallstones patients as diseased controls were included prospectively. The risk factors studied were related to socioeconomic profile, life style, reproduction, diet and bile acids. On comparing GBC patients (mean age 51.7 years; 130 females) with healthy controls, risk factors were chemical exposure [odd ratios (OR): 7.0 (2.7-18.2); p < 0.001)], family history of gallstones [OR: 5.3 (1.5-18.9); p < 0.01)], tobacco [OR: 4.1 (1.8-9.7); p < 0.001)], fried foods [OR: 3.1 (1.7-5.6); p < 0.001], joint family [OR: 3.2 (1.7-6.2); p < 0.001], long interval between meals [OR: 1.4 (1.2-1.6); p < 0.001] and residence in Gangetic belt [OR: 3.3 (1.8-6.2); p < 0.001]. On comparing GBC cases with gallstone controls, risk factors were female gender [OR: 2.4 (1.3-4.3); p = 0.004], residence in Gangetic belt [OR: 2.3 (1.2-4.4); p = 0.012], fried foods [OR: 2.5 (1.4-4.4); p < 0.001], diabetes [OR: 2.7 (1.2-6.4); p = 0.02)], tobacco [OR 3.8 (1.7-8.1); p < 0.001)] and joint family [OR: 2.1 (1.2-3.4); p = 0.004]. The ratio of secondary to primary bile acids was significantly higher in GBC cases than gallstone controls (20.8 vs. 0.44). Fried foods, tobacco, chemical exposure, family history of gallstones, residence in Gangetic belt and secondary bile acids were significant risk factors for GBC. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

Comparison of atherogenic risk factors among poorly controlled and well-controlled adolescent phenylketonuria patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Gündüz, Mehmet; Çakar, Sevim; Kuyum, Pınar; Makay, Balahan; Arslan, Nur

2016-06-01

Previous studies investigating the known risk factors of atherosclerosis in phenylketonuria patients have shown conflicting results. The primary aim of our study was to investigate the serum atherogenic markers in adolescent classical phenylketonuria patients and compare these parameters with healthy peers. The secondary aim was to compare these atherogenic markers in well-controlled and poorly controlled patients. A total of 59 patients (median age: 12.6 years, range: 11-17 years) and 44 healthy controls (median age: 12.0 years, range: 11-15 years) were enrolled in our study. Phenylketonuria patients were divided into two groups: well-controlled (serum phenylalanine levels below 360 µmol/L; 24 patients) and poorly controlled patients (serum phenylalanine levels higher than 360 µmol/L). The mean high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of well-controlled patients (1.0±0.2 mmol/L) were significantly lower compared with poorly controlled patients and controls (1.1±0.2 mmol/L, p=0.011 and 1.4±0.2 mmol/L, pphenylketonuria patients. In particular, these changes were more prominent in well-controlled patients. We conclude that phenylketonuria patients might be at risk for atherosclerosis, and therefore screening for atherosclerotic risk factors should be included in the phenylketonuria therapy and follow-up in addition to other parameters.

Frequency Control Performance Measurement and Requirements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Illian, Howard F.

2010-12-20

Frequency control is an essential requirement of reliable electric power system operations. Determination of frequency control depends on frequency measurement and the practices based on these measurements that dictate acceptable frequency management. This report chronicles the evolution of these measurements and practices. As technology progresses from analog to digital for calculation, communication, and control, the technical basis for frequency control measurement and practices to determine acceptable performance continues to improve. Before the introduction of digital computing, practices were determined largely by prior experience. In anticipation of mandatory reliability rules, practices evolved from a focus primarily on commercial and equity issues to an increased focus on reliability. This evolution is expected to continue and place increased requirements for more precise measurements and a stronger scientific basis for future frequency management practices in support of reliability.

Optimal control of quantum measurement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Egger, Daniel; Wilhelm, Frank [Theoretical Physics, Saarland University, 66123 Saarbruecken (Germany)

2015-07-01

Pulses to steer the time evolution of quantum systems can be designed with optimal control theory. In most cases it is the coherent processes that can be controlled and one optimizes the time evolution towards a target unitary process, sometimes also in the presence of non-controllable incoherent processes. Here we show how to extend the GRAPE algorithm in the case where the incoherent processes are controllable and the target time evolution is a non-unitary quantum channel. We perform a gradient search on a fidelity measure based on Choi matrices. We illustrate our algorithm by optimizing a measurement pulse for superconducting phase qubits. We show how this technique can lead to large measurement contrast close to 99%. We also show, within the validity of our model, that this algorithm can produce short 1.4 ns pulses with 98.2% contrast.

Measurement control program for NDA instruments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsue, S.T.; Marks, T.

1983-01-01

Measurement control checks for nondestructive assay instruments have been a constant and continuing concern at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This paper summarizes the evolution of the measurement control checks in the various high-resolution gamma systems we have developed. In-plant experiences with these systems and checks will be discussed. Based on these experiences, a set of measurement control checks is recommended for high-resolution gamma-ray systems

A systematic review of risk factors associated with accidental falls, outcome measures and interventions to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, Laura A; Ousley, Cherita; Sosnoff, Jacob J

2015-01-01

To systematically review peer-reviewed literature pertaining to risk factors, outcome measures and interventions managing fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Twenty-one papers were selected for inclusion from databases including PubMed/Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Cochrane Library, Scopus, Consumer Health Complete and Web of Science. Selected studies involved a description of fall related risk factors, outcomes to assess fall risk and intervention studies describing protocols to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Studies were selected by two reviewers and consultation provided by a third reviewer. The most frequently cited risk factors/characteristics associated with falls included: wheelchair related characteristics, transfer activities, impaired seated balance and environmental factors. The majority of the outcomes were found to evaluate seated postural control. One intervention study was identified describing a protocol targeting specific problems of individual participants. A global fall prevention program was not identified. Several risk factors associated with falls were identified and must be understood by clinicians to better serve their clients. To improve objective assessment, a comprehensive outcome assessment specific to non-ambulatory adults is needed. Finally, additional research is needed to examine the impact of structured protocols to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Falls are a common health concern for non-ambulatory adults. Risk factors commonly associated with falls include wheelchair related characteristics, transfer activities, impaired seated balance and environmental factors. Limited outcome measures are available to assess fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Clinicians must be aware of the known risk factors and provide comprehensive education to their clients on the potential for falls. Additional research is needed to develop and evaluate protocols to clinically manage fall

Reports of wins and risk taking: an investigation of the mediating effect of the illusion of control.

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Frédéric; Le Floch, Valérie; Gaffié, Bernard; Villejoubert, Gaëlle

2011-06-01

Two experiments examined the relationships between the knowledge that another person has won in a gamble, the illusion of control and risk taking. Participants played a computer-simulated French roulette game individually. Before playing, some participants learnt that another person won a large amount of money. Results from a first experiment (n = 24) validated a causal model where the knowledge of another person's win increased the illusion of control, measured with betting times, expectancy and self-reports on scales, which in turn encourages risk taking. In the second experiment (n = 36), some participants were told the previous player acknowledged the win to be fortuitous. The suppression of the belief that the previous winner had himself exerted control over the outcome resulted in lower rates of risk-taking behaviors. This suggests that it was not the knowledge of another person's win in itself that increased risk taking, but rather, the belief that the other person had some control over the gamble's outcome. Theoretical implications for the study of social mechanisms involved in gambling behavior are discussed.

Tuberculosis in healthcare workers and infection control measures at primary healthcare facilities in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Claassens, Mareli M; van Schalkwyk, Cari; du Toit, Elizabeth; Roest, Eline; Lombard, Carl J; Enarson, Donald A; Beyers, Nulda; Borgdorff, Martien W

2013-01-01

Challenges exist regarding TB infection control and TB in hospital-based healthcare workers in South Africa. However, few studies report on TB in non-hospital based healthcare workers such as primary or community healthcare workers. Our objectives were to investigate the implementation of TB infection control measures at primary healthcare facilities, the smear positive TB incidence rate amongst primary healthcare workers and the association between TB infection control measures and all types of TB in healthcare workers. One hundred and thirty three primary healthcare facilities were visited in five provinces of South Africa in 2009. At each facility, a TB infection control audit and facility questionnaire were completed. The number of healthcare workers who had had TB during the past three years was obtained. The standardised incidence ratio of smear positive TB in primary healthcare workers indicated an incidence rate of more than double that of the general population. In a univariable logistic regression, the infection control audit score was significantly associated with reported cases of TB in healthcare workers (OR=1.04, 95%CI 1.01-1.08, p=0.02) as was the number of staff (OR=3.78, 95%CI 1.77-8.08). In the multivariable analysis, the number of staff remained significantly associated with TB in healthcare workers (OR=3.33, 95%CI 1.37-8.08). The high rate of TB in healthcare workers suggests a substantial nosocomial transmission risk, but the infection control audit tool which was used did not perform adequately as a measure of this risk. Infection control measures should be monitored by validated tools developed and tested locally. Different strategies, such as routine surveillance systems, could be used to evaluate the burden of TB in healthcare workers in order to calculate TB incidence, monitor trends and implement interventions to decrease occupational TB.

Tuberculosis in Healthcare Workers and Infection Control Measures at Primary Healthcare Facilities in South Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Claassens, Mareli M.; van Schalkwyk, Cari; du Toit, Elizabeth; Roest, Eline; Lombard, Carl J.; Enarson, Donald A.; Beyers, Nulda; Borgdorff, Martien W.

2013-01-01

Background Challenges exist regarding TB infection control and TB in hospital-based healthcare workers in South Africa. However, few studies report on TB in non-hospital based healthcare workers such as primary or community healthcare workers. Our objectives were to investigate the implementation of TB infection control measures at primary healthcare facilities, the smear positive TB incidence rate amongst primary healthcare workers and the association between TB infection control measures and all types of TB in healthcare workers. Methods One hundred and thirty three primary healthcare facilities were visited in five provinces of South Africa in 2009. At each facility, a TB infection control audit and facility questionnaire were completed. The number of healthcare workers who had had TB during the past three years was obtained. Results The standardised incidence ratio of smear positive TB in primary healthcare workers indicated an incidence rate of more than double that of the general population. In a univariable logistic regression, the infection control audit score was significantly associated with reported cases of TB in healthcare workers (OR=1.04, 95%CI 1.01-1.08, p=0.02) as was the number of staff (OR=3.78, 95%CI 1.77-8.08). In the multivariable analysis, the number of staff remained significantly associated with TB in healthcare workers (OR=3.33, 95%CI 1.37-8.08). Conclusion The high rate of TB in healthcare workers suggests a substantial nosocomial transmission risk, but the infection control audit tool which was used did not perform adequately as a measure of this risk. Infection control measures should be monitored by validated tools developed and tested locally. Different strategies, such as routine surveillance systems, could be used to evaluate the burden of TB in healthcare workers in order to calculate TB incidence, monitor trends and implement interventions to decrease occupational TB. PMID:24098461

Developing a national programme of flood risk management measures: Moldova

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramsbottom David

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A Technical Assistance project funded by the European Investment Bank has been undertaken to develop a programme of flood risk management measures for Moldova that will address the main shortcomings in the present flood management system, and provide the basis for long-term improvement. Areas of significant flood risk were identified using national hydraulic and flood risk modelling, and flood hazard and flood risk maps were then prepared for these high risk areas. The flood risk was calculated using 12 indicators representing social, economic and environmental impacts of flooding. Indicator values were combined to provide overall estimates of flood risk. Strategic approaches to flood risk management were identified for each river basin using a multi-criteria analysis. Measures were then identified to achieve the strategic approaches. A programme of measures covering a 20-year period was developed together with a more detailed Short-Term Investment Plan covering the first seven years of the programme. Arrangements are now being made to implement the programme. The technical achievements of the project included national hydrological and hydraulic modelling covering 12,000 km of river, the development of 2-dimensional channel and floodplain hydraulic models from a range of topographic and bathymetric data, and an integrated flood risk assessment that takes account of both economic and non-monetary impacts.

Combining quantitative and qualitative breast density measures to assess breast cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Kerlikowske, Karla; Ma, Lin; Scott, Christopher G; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir P; Jensen, Matthew R; Sprague, Brian L; Henderson, Louise M; Pankratz, V Shane; Cummings, Steven R; Miglioretti, Diana L; Vachon, Celine M; Shepherd, John A

2017-08-22

Accurately identifying women with dense breasts (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System [BI-RADS] heterogeneously or extremely dense) who are at high breast cancer risk will facilitate discussions of supplemental imaging and primary prevention. We examined the independent contribution of dense breast volume and BI-RADS breast density to predict invasive breast cancer and whether dense breast volume combined with Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model factors (age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, and BI-RADS breast density) improves identifying women with dense breasts at high breast cancer risk. We conducted a case-control study of 1720 women with invasive cancer and 3686 control subjects. We calculated ORs and 95% CIs for the effect of BI-RADS breast density and Volpara™ automated dense breast volume on invasive cancer risk, adjusting for other BCSC risk model factors plus body mass index (BMI), and we compared C-statistics between models. We calculated BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk, incorporating the adjusted ORs associated with dense breast volume. Compared with women with BI-RADS scattered fibroglandular densities and second-quartile dense breast volume, women with BI-RADS extremely dense breasts and third- or fourth-quartile dense breast volume (75% of women with extremely dense breasts) had high breast cancer risk (OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.84-4.47, and OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.87-3.52, respectively), whereas women with extremely dense breasts and first- or second-quartile dense breast volume were not at significantly increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.53, 95% CI 0.75-3.09, and OR 1.50, 95% CI 0.82-2.73, respectively). Adding continuous dense breast volume to a model with BCSC risk model factors and BMI increased discriminatory accuracy compared with a model with only BCSC risk model factors (C-statistic 0.639, 95% CI 0.623-0.654, vs. C-statistic 0.614, 95% CI 0.598-0.630, respectively; P breasts and fourth

Measurement control program at model facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, R.A.

1984-01-01

A measurement control program for the model plant is described. The discussion includes the technical basis for such a program, the application of measurement control principles to each measurement, and the use of special experiments to estimate measurement error parameters for difficult-to-measure materials. The discussion also describes the statistical aspects of the program, and the documentation procedures used to record, maintain, and process the basic data

Weight, height, body mass index and risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women: a case-control study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vahdaninia Mariam

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many women in Iran have a relatively high body mass index. To investigate whether the condition contributes to excess breast cancer cases, a case-control study was conducted to assess the relationships between anthropometric variables and breast cancer risk in Tehran, Iran. Methods All incident cases of breast cancer in the Iranian Centre for Breast Cancer (ICBC were identified through the case records. Eligible cases were all postmenopausal women with histological confirmed diagnosis of breast cancer during 1996 to year 2000. Controls were randomly selected postmenopausal women attending the ICBC for clinical breast examination during the same period. The body mass index (BMI was calculated based on weights and heights as measured by the ICBC nursing staff. Both tests for trend and logistic regression analysis were performed to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals as measures of relative risk. Results In all, 116 breast cancer cases and 116 controls were studied. There were no significant differences between cases and control with regard to most independent variables studied. However, a significant difference was observed between cases and controls indicating that the mean BMI was higher in cases as compared to controls (P = 0.004. Performing logistic regression analysis while controlling for age, age at menopause, family history of breast cancer and parity, the results showed that women with a BMI in the obese range had a three fold increased risk of breast cancer [odds ratio (OR = 3.21, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.15–8.47]. Conclusion The results suggest that obesity in postmenopausal women could increase risk of breast cancer and it merits further investigation in populations such as Iran where it seems that many women are short in height, and have a relatively high body mass index.

Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barend Prinsloo

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in SouthAfrica, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

The incremental value of brachial flow-mediated dilation measurements in risk stratification for incident cardiovascular events: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Sanne A E; den Ruijter, Hester M; Bots, Michiel L

2012-06-01

Abstract Adequate risk assessment for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is essential as a guide to initiate drug treatment. Current methods based on traditional risk factors could be improved considerably. Although brachial flow-mediated dilation (FMD) predicts subsequent cardiovascular events, its predictive value on top of traditional risk factors is unknown. We performed a systematic review to evaluate the incremental predictive value of FMD on top of traditional risk factors in asymptomatic individuals. Using PubMed and reference tracking, three studies were identified that reported on the incremental value of FMD using change in the area under the curve (AUC). Two large cohort studies found no improvement in AUC when FMD was added to traditional risk prediction models, whereas one small case-control study found an improvement. One study used the net reclassification improvement (NRI) to assess whether FMD measurement leads to correct risk stratification in risk categories. Although this study did not find an improvement in AUC, the NRI was statistically significant. Based on the reclassification results of this study, FMD measurement might be helpful in risk prediction. Evidence supporting the use of FMD measurement in clinical practice for risk stratification for CVD on top of traditional risk factors is limited, and future studies are needed.

Equivalent risky allocation: The new ERA of risk measurement for heterogeneous investors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Plunus, S.; Gillet, R.; Hübner, G.M.B.J.

2015-01-01

This paper introduces an investor-specific risk measure derived from the linear-exponential (linex) utility function. It combines the notions of risk perception and risk aversion. To make this measure interpretable and comparable with others like variance or value-at-risk, it is translated into an

Risk factors for cataract: A case control study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ughade Suresh

1998-01-01

Full Text Available The present study was designed as a hospital-based, group-matched, case-control investigation into the risk factors associated with age-related cataract in central India. The study included 262 cases of age-related cataract and an equal number of controls. A total of 21 risk factors were evaluated: namely, low socioeconomic status (SES, illiteracy, marital status, history of diarrhoea, history of diabetes, glaucoma, use of cholinesterase inhibitors, steroids, spironolactone, nifedipine, analgesics, myopia early in life, renal failure, heavy smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, hypertension, low body mass index (BMI, use of cheaper cooking fuel, working in direct sunlight, family history of cataract, and occupational exposure. In univariate analysis, except marital status, low BMI, renal failure, use of steroids, spironolactone, analgesics, and occupational exposure, all 14 other risk factors were found significantly associated with age-related cataract. Unconditional multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed the significance of low SES, illiteracy, history of diarrhoea, diabetes, glaucoma, myopia, smoking, hypertension and cheap cooking fuel. The etiological role of these risk factors in the outcome of cataract is confirmed by the estimates of attributable risk proportion. The estimates of population attributable risk proportion for these factors highlight the impact of elimination of these risk factors on the reduction of cataract in this population.

Risk-sensitive control of stochastic hybrid systems on infinite time horizon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Runolfsson Thordur

1999-01-01

Full Text Available A risk-sensitive optimal control problem is considered for a hybrid system that consists of continuous time diffusion process that depends on a discrete valued mode variable that is modeled as a Markov chain. Optimality conditions are presented and conditions for the existence of optimal controls are derived. It is shown that the optimal risk-sensitive control problem is equivalent to the upper value of an associated stochastic differential game, and insight into the contributions of the noise input and mode variable to the risk sensitivity of the cost functional is given. Furthermore, it is shown that due to the mode variable risk sensitivity, the equivalence relationship that has been observed between risk-sensitive and H ∞ control in the nonhybrid case does not hold for stochastic hybrid systems.

Sunway Medical Laboratory Quality Control Plans Based on Six Sigma, Risk Management and Uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Jairaman, Jamuna; Sakiman, Zarinah; Li, Lee Suan

2017-03-01

Sunway Medical Centre (SunMed) implemented Six Sigma, measurement uncertainty, and risk management after the CLSI EP23 Individualized Quality Control Plan approach. Despite the differences in all three approaches, each implementation was beneficial to the laboratory, and none was in conflict with another approach. A synthesis of these approaches, built on a solid foundation of quality control planning, can help build a strong quality management system for the entire laboratory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-based configuration control: Application of PSA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

1992-01-01

Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur, then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, to minimize the risk from components being unavailable, becomes difficult, because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. Controlling plant configuration from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser controls in areas unimportant to risk. Risk-based configuration control approaches can be used to replace parts of nuclear power plant Technical Specifications. With the advances in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technology, such approaches to improve Technical Specifications and operational safety are feasible. In this paper, we present an analysis of configuration risks, and a framework for risk-based configuration control to achieve the desired control of risk-significant configurations during plant operation

Outbreak of resistant Acinetobacter baumannii- measures and proposal for prevention and control.

Science.gov (United States)

Romanelli, Roberta Maia de Castro; Jesus, Lenize Adriana de; Clemente, Wanessa Trindade; Lima, Stella Sala Soares; Rezende, Edna Maria; Coutinho, Rosane Luiza; Moreira, Ricardo Luiz Fontes; Neves, Francelli Aparecida Cordeiro; Brás, Nelma de Jesus

2009-10-01

Acinetobacter baumannii colonization and infection, frequent in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients, is commonly associated with high morbimortality. Several outbreaks due to multidrug-resistant (MDR) A. baumanii have been reported but few of them in Brazil. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with colonization and infection by MDR and carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii strains isolated from patients admitted to the adult ICU at HC/UFMG. A case-control study was performed from January 2007 to June 2008. Cases were defined as patients colonized or infected by MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii, and controls were patients without MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii isolation, in a 1:2 proportion. For statistical analysis, due to changes in infection control guidelines, infection criteria and the notification process, this study was divided into two periods. During the first period analyzed, from January to December 2007, colonization or infection by MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii was associated with prior infection, invasive device utilization, prior carbapenem use and clinical severity. In the multivariate analysis, prior infection and mechanical ventilation proved to be statistically significant risk factors. Carbapenem use showed a tendency towards a statistical association. During the second study period, from January to June 2008, variables with a significant association with MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii colonization/infection were catheter utilization, carbapenem and third-generation cephalosporin use, hepatic transplantation, and clinical severity. In the multivariate analysis, only CVC use showed a statistical difference. Carbapenem and third-generation cephalosporin use displayed a tendency to be risk factors. Risk factors must be focused on infection control and prevention measures considering A. baumanni dissemination.

Outbreak of resistant Acinetobacter baumannii: measures and proposal for prevention and control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberta Maia de Castro Romanelli

Full Text Available Acinetobacter baumannii colonization and infection, frequent in Intensive Care Unit (ICU patients, is commonly associated with high morbimortality. Several outbreaks due to multidrug-resistant (MDR A. baumanii have been reported but few of them in Brazil. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with colonization and infection by MDR and carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii strains isolated from patients admitted to the adult ICU at HC/UFMG. A case-control study was performed from January 2007 to June 2008. Cases were defined as patients colonized or infected by MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii, and controls were patients without MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii isolation, in a 1:2 proportion. For statistical analysis, due to changes in infection control guidelines, infection criteria and the notification process, this study was divided into two periods. During the first period analyzed, from January to December 2007, colonization or infection by MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii was associated with prior infection, invasive device utilization, prior carbapenem use and clinical severity. In the multivariate analysis, prior infection and mechanical ventilation proved to be statistically significant risk factors. Carbapenem use showed a tendency towards a statistical association. During the second study period, from January to June 2008, variables with a significant association with MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii colonization/infection were catheter utilization, carbapenem and third-generation cephalosporin use, hepatic transplantation, and clinical severity. In the multivariate analysis, only CVC use showed a statistical difference. Carbapenem and third-generation cephalosporin use displayed a tendency to be risk factors. Risk factors must be focused on infection control and prevention measures considering A. baumanni dissemination.

[Control of major cardiovascular risk factors of ischemic heart disease in secondary prevention in Aragón: COCINA study].

Science.gov (United States)

Cucalon Arenal, J M; Buisac Ramón, C; Marin Ibáñez, A; Castan Ruiz, S; Blay Cortes, M G; Barrasa Villar, J I

2016-01-01

Ischemic heart disease remains a leading cause of death in Spain. According to the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) and European national societies, secondary prevention for these patients consists of control of major cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and suitable lifestyle habits. To determine the degree of control of CVRF in the Aragonese population in secondary prevention. Cross-sectional study of a sample of 705 patients of Aragon who had suffered a cardiac event, selected opportunistically in consultations of family physicians participating in the 3 provinces of Aragon. The study was conducted in the second half of 2012. To measure the degree of control of different FRVC and lifestyle habits in this population. Anthropometric, different cardiovascular risk factors, treatment and lifestyle. 58% of men and 52% of women met criteria for monitoring of measured variables. The best result was obtained with smoking cessation and the worst with BMI. Hypertension, Dyslipidemia and Diabetes Mellitus achieve poor control results. The results show that the degree of control of CVRF is still low, especially in variables such as dyslipidemia and Diabetes Mellitus. Only 16.5% of control patients met criteria given the pharmacologically-modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Restricted Coherent Risk Measures and Actuarial Solvency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christos E. Kountzakis

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We prove a general dual representation form for restricted coherent risk measures, and we apply it to a minimization problem of the required solvency capital for an insurance company.

Meta-Analysis: Risk of Tics Associated With Psychostimulant Use in Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Stephanie C; Mulqueen, Jilian M; Ferracioli-Oda, Eduardo; Stuckelman, Zachary D; Coughlin, Catherine G; Leckman, James F; Bloch, Michael H

2015-09-01

Clinical practice currently restricts the use of psychostimulant medications in children with tics or a family history of tics for fear that tics will develop or worsen as a side effect of treatment. Our goal was to conduct a meta-analysis to examine the risk of new onset or worsening of tics as an adverse event of psychostimulants in randomized, placebo-controlled trials. We conducted a PubMed search to identify all double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials examining the efficacy of psychostimulant medications in the treatment of children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). We used a fixed effects meta-analysis with risk ratio of new onset or worsening tics in children treated with psychostimulants compared to placebo. We used stratified subgroup analysis and meta-regression to examine the effects of stimulant type, dose, duration of treatment, recorder of side effect data, trial design, and mean age of participants on the measured risk of tics. We identified 22 studies involving 2,385 children with ADHD for inclusion in our meta-analysis. New onset tics or worsening of tic symptoms were commonly reported in the psychostimulant (event rate = 5.7%, 95% CI = 3.7%-8.6%) and placebo groups (event rate = 6.5%, 95% CI = 4.4%-9.5%). The risk of new onset or worsening of tics associated with psychostimulant treatment was similar to that observed with placebo (risk ratio = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.78-1.27, z = -0.05, p = .962). Type of psychostimulant, dose, duration of treatment, recorder, and participant age did not affect risk of new onset or worsening of tics. Crossover studies were associated with a significantly greater measured risk of tics with psychostimulant use compared to parallel group trials. Meta-analysis of controlled trials does not support an association between new onset or worsening of tics and psychostimulant use. Clinicians may want to consider rechallenging children who report new onset or worsening of tics with psychostimulant

Fundamental data analyses for measurement control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, K.; Barlich, G.L.; Fazal, B.; Strittmatter, R.B.

1989-01-01

An important aspect of a complete measurement control program for special nuclear materials is the analysis of data from periodic control measurements of known standards. This chapter covers the following topics: basic algorithms including an introduction and terminology, the standard case (known mean and standard deviation), Shewart control charts, and sequential test for bias; modifications for nonstandard cases including modification for changing (decaying) standard value, modifications for deteriorating measurement precision, and modifications when repeated measurements are made; maintenance information including estimation of historical standard deviation (standard case), estimation of historical standard deviation (changing with time), normality and outliners, and other tests of randomness

Volatility and correlation-based systemic risk measures in the US market

Science.gov (United States)

Civitarese, Jamil

2016-10-01

This paper deals with the problem of how to use simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. Using three simple examples taken from previous literature, one based on raw and partial correlations, another based on the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix and the last one based on an eigenvalue entropy, a Granger-causation analysis revealed some of them are not always a good measure of risk in the S&P 500 and in the VIX. The measures selected do not Granger-cause the VIX index in all windows selected; therefore, in the sense of risk as volatility, the indicators are not always suitable. Nevertheless, their results towards returns are similar to previous works that accept them. A deeper analysis has shown that any symmetric measure based on eigenvalue decomposition of correlation matrices, however, is not useful as a measure of "correlation" risk. The empirical counterpart analysis of this proposition stated that negative correlations are usually small and, therefore, do not heavily distort the behavior of the indicator.

Risk-based configuration control: Application of PRA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

1991-01-01

The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations form a risk perspective. The configurations of particular interest involve components which are down during power operation. Controlling plant configurations from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser control in areas unimportant to risk

The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, P J

2013-01-01

A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the m otivational density , to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, P. J.

2013-09-01

A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

Protecting the autonomy of states to enact tobacco control measures under trade and investment agreements.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Andrew; Sheargold, Elizabeth

2015-06-01

Since the adoption of the WHO's WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, governments have been pursuing progressively stronger and more wide-reaching tobacco control measures. In response, tobacco companies are frequently using international trade and investment agreements as tools to challenge domestic tobacco control measures. Several significant new trade and investment agreements that some fear may provide new legal avenues to the tobacco industry to challenge health measures are currently under negotiation, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (a 12 party agreement of Asia-Pacific regional countries) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (an agreement between the USA and the European Union). This commentary examines different options for treaty provisions that the parties could employ in these agreements to minimise legal risks relating to tobacco control measures. It recommends that parties take a comprehensive approach, combining provisions that minimise the potential costs of litigation with provisions that increase the likelihood of a state successfully defending tobacco control measures in such litigation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

2014-05-01

Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

Tuberculosis and mass gatherings-opportunities for defining burden, transmission risk, and the optimal surveillance, prevention, and control measures at the annual Hajj pilgrimage.

Science.gov (United States)

Zumla, Alimuddin; Saeed, Abdulaziz Bin; Alotaibi, Badriah; Yezli, Saber; Dar, Osman; Bieh, Kingsley; Bates, Matthew; Tayeb, Tamara; Mwaba, Peter; Shafi, Shuja; McCloskey, Brian; Petersen, Eskild; Azhar, Esam I

2016-06-01

Tuberculosis (TB) is now the most common infectious cause of death worldwide. In 2014, an estimated 9.6 million people developed active TB. There were an estimated three million people with active TB including 360000 with multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) who were not diagnosed, and such people continue to fuel TB transmission in the community. Accurate data on the actual burden of TB and the transmission risk associated with mass gatherings are scarce and unreliable due to the small numbers studied and methodological issues. Every year, an estimated 10 million pilgrims from 184 countries travel to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) to perform the Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages. A large majority of pilgrims come from high TB burden and MDR-TB endemic areas and thus many may have undiagnosed active TB, sub-clinical TB, and latent TB infection. The Hajj pilgrimage provides unique opportunities for the KSA and the 184 countries from which pilgrims originate, to conduct high quality priority research studies on TB under the remit of the Global Centre for Mass Gatherings Medicine. Research opportunities are discussed, including those related to the definition of the TB burden, transmission risk, and the optimal surveillance, prevention, and control measures at the annual Hajj pilgrimage. The associated data are required to develop international recommendations and guidelines for TB management and control at mass gathering events. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test...... the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). METHODS: Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin...... Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high...

Aspects of control measures in occupational hygiene

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lumens, M.

1997-01-01

This thesis focuses on two aspects which are of major importance in the broad field of control measures in occupational hygiene: the selection of control measures in a structured way and the impact of factors modifying the effectiveness of these control measures.

The main

Banding the world together; the global growth of control banding and qualitative occupational risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Zalk, David M; Heussen, Ga Henri

2011-12-01

Control Banding (CB) strategies to prevent work-related illness and injury for 2.5 billion workers without access to health and safety professionals has grown exponentially this last decade. CB originates from the pharmaceutical industry to control active pharmaceutical ingredients without a complete toxicological basis and therefore no occupational exposure limits. CB applications have broadened into chemicals in general - including new emerging risks like nanomaterials and recently into ergonomics and injury prevention. CB is an action-oriented qualitative risk assessment strategy offering solutions and control measures to users through "toolkits". Chemical CB toolkits are user-friendly approaches used to achieve workplace controls in the absence of firm toxicological and quantitative exposure information. The model (technical) validation of these toolkits is well described, however firm operational analyses (implementation aspects) are lacking. Consequentially, it is often not known if toolkit use leads to successful interventions at individual workplaces. This might lead to virtual safe workplaces without knowing if workers are truly protected. Upcoming international strategies from the World Health Organization Collaborating Centers request assistance in developing and evaluating action-oriented procedures for workplace risk assessment and control. It is expected that to fulfill this strategy's goals, CB approaches will continue its important growth in protecting workers.

Banding the World Together; The Global Growth of Control Banding and Qualitative Occupational Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David M. Zalk

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Control Banding (CB strategies to prevent work-related illness and injury for 2.5 billion workers without access to health and safety professionals has grown exponentially this last decade. CB originates from the pharmaceutical industry to control active pharmaceutical ingredients without a complete toxicological basis and therefore no occupational exposure limits. CB applications have broadened into chemicals in general - including new emerging risks like nanomaterials and recently into ergonomics and injury prevention. CB is an action-oriented qualitative risk assessment strategy offering solutions and control measures to users through “toolkits”. Chemical CB toolkits are user-friendly approaches used to achieve workplace controls in the absence of firm toxicological and quantitative exposure information. The model (technical validation of these toolkits is well described, however firm operational analyses (implementation aspects are lacking. Consequentially, it is often not known if toolkit use leads to successful interventions at individual workplaces. This might lead to virtual safe workplaces without knowing if workers are truly protected. Upcoming international strategies from the World Health Organization Collaborating Centers request assistance in developing and evaluating action-oriented procedures for workplace risk assessment and control. It is expected that to fulfill this strategy’s goals, CB approaches will continue its important growth in protecting workers.

ABO blood group and esophageal carcinoma risk: from a case-control study in Chinese population to meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Liu, Lei; Wang, Zhiwei; Lu, Xiaopeng; Wei, Min; Lin, Tianlong; Zhang, Yixin; Jiang, Songqi; Wang, Qiang; Cao, Ziang; Shi, Minxin

2014-10-01

The association between ABO blood group and the risk of esophageal carcinoma (EC) in previously published studies is uncertain and conflicting. The aim of the current study was to determine the correlation of ABO blood group with EC risk via a case-control study and meta-analysis. We performed a population-based case-control study of 3,595 cases and 41,788 controls in Chinese population to evaluate the association between ABO blood group and EC risk. Then, a comprehensive meta-analysis combining our original data and previously published data was conducted to clearly discern the real relationship. The strength of association was measured by odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). In our case-control study, the risk of EC in blood group B was significantly higher than that in non-B groups (A, O, and AB) (OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.09-1.21). Compared with non-O groups (A, B, and AB), individuals with blood group O demonstrated a reduced risk of EC (OR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.85-0.94). The meta-analysis also indicated that blood group B was associated with significantly higher EC risk (OR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.10-1.31), and people with blood group O had a decreased EC risk (OR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99). Neither the case-control study nor the meta-analysis produced any significant association of blood group A or AB with EC risk. Results from our case-control study and the followed meta-analysis confirmed that there was an increased risk of EC in blood group B individuals, whereas a decreased risk of EC was observed in blood group O individuals.

A case-control study to assess the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Assi, Valentina; Massat, Nathalie J; Thomas, Susan; MacKay, James; Warwick, Jane; Kataoka, Masako; Warsi, Iqbal; Brentnall, Adam; Warren, Ruth; Duffy, Stephen W

2015-05-15

Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer, but its potential application in risk management is not clear, partly due to uncertainties about its interaction with other breast cancer risk factors. We aimed to quantify the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer (average lifetime risk of 23%), in particular in premenopausal women, and to investigate its relationship with other breast cancer risk factors in this population. We present the results from a case-control study nested with the FH01 cohort study of 6,710 women mostly aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer. One hundred and three cases of breast cancer were age-matched to one or two controls. Density was measured by semiautomated interactive thresholding. Absolute density, but not percent density, was a significant risk factor for breast cancer in this population after adjusting for area of nondense tissue (OR per 10 cm(2) = 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, p = 0.04). The effect was stronger in premenopausal women, who made up the majority of the study population. Absolute density remained a significant predictor of breast cancer risk after adjusting for age at menarche, age at first live birth, parity, past or present hormone replacement therapy, and the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate of breast cancer. Absolute density can improve breast cancer risk stratification and delineation of high-risk groups alongside the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate. © 2014 UICC.

Hospitalisation for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and risk of suicide: a population-based case–control study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Strid, JM; Christiansen, Christian Fynbo; Olsen, Morten Smærup

2014-01-01

Objectives To examine risk of suicide among individuals with hospitalised chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and to profile differences according to sex, age, psychiatric history, and recency and frequency of COPD hospitalisations. Design Nested case–control study. Setting Data were...... retrieved from Danish national registries. Participants All suicide cases aged 40–95 years deceased between 1981 and 2006 in Denmark (n=19 869) and up to 20 live population controls per case matched on sex and date of birth (n=321 867 controls). Main outcome measures The relative risk of suicide associated...... with COPD was computed using conditional logistic regression and adjusted for effects of psychiatric history and important sociodemographic factors. Results In our study population, 3% of suicide cases had been hospitalised for COPD compared with 1% of matched population controls. Thus, a hospitalised COPD...

Risk Management and Viability of Public Organizations. Development of a Risk Measurement Tool: The Case of Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iordanis Eleftheriadis

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This paper provides an important contribution towards the development of a valid, reliable and cost-effective instrument that reduces operational and economic risk levels in public sector organizations. Design/methodology/approach: A quantitative methodology based on the collection of primary data via a questionnaire has been adopted in this research. Findings: The research results showed that the measurement tool selected, applied, presented and proposed is comprised of three (3 scales. The reliability analysis proved that all three scales are reliable; therefore, they are suitable for use as a risk measurement instrument. Research limitations/implications: The study's academic contribution is the application and testing of the aforementioned measurement instruments, which can now be utilised by researchers in the field of risk management, to further advance the study of risk management in public organizations in Greece. On the empirical level, the implementation of these three measurement instruments can assist public organizations in Greece via an easy and fast assessment of economic and operational risks. Originality/value: This tool can help public organizations gain insight into the level of risk they face at any given point in time in order plan their actions accordingly. At the same time, central state administration will have the necessary tools to monitor and support the organizations it evaluates.

CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jasper Mbachu

2014-12-01

Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

Rationale and design of INTERSTROKE: a global case-control study of risk factors for stroke

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

O'Donnell, M; Serpault, Damien Xavier; Diener, C

2010-01-01

with a first stroke within 72 h of hospital presentation in whom CT or MRI is performed. Proxy respondents are used for cases unable to communicate. Etiological and topographical stroke subtype is documented for all cases. Controls are hospital- and community-based, matched for gender, ethnicity and age (+/-5...... years). A questionnaire (cases and controls) is used to acquire information on known and proposed risk factors for stroke. Cardiovascular (e.g. blood pressure) and anthropometric (e.g. waist-to-hip ratio) measurements are obtained at the time of interview. Nonfasting blood samples and random urine......-income countries is inadequate, where a very large burden of stroke occurs. Accordingly, a similar epidemiological study is required for stroke, to inform effective population-based strategies to reduce the risk of stroke. Methods: INTERSTROKE is an international, multicenter case-control study. Cases are patients...

Risk Management And Organisational Profitability | Ukandu ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Findings revealed that certain measures like: risk reduction/prevention, risk avoidance, risk sharing, risk retention, risk modification, etc. could be adopted to reduce the impact of risk on production. The paper posits that if the proper risk control measures and effective planning techniques are applied, the impact of risk ...

Urinary strontium and the risk of breast cancer: A case-control study in Guangzhou, China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Li-Juan [The School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080 (China); Tang, Lu-Ying [The School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080 (China); The Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630 (China); He, Jian-Rong [The School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080 (China); Guangzhou Women and Children' s Medical Center, Guangzhou 510623 (China); Su, Yi; Cen, Yu-Ling; Yu, Dan-Dan [The School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080 (China); Wu, Bang-Hua [The Guangdong Prevention and Treatment Center for Occupational Diseases, Guangzhou 510300 (China); Lin, Ying [The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080 (China); Chen, Wei-Qing [The School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080 (China); Song, Er-Wei, E-mail: songerwei02@yahoo.com.cn [The Second Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West, Guangzhou 510120 (China); Ren, Ze-Fang, E-mail: renzef@mail.sysu.edu.cn [The School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080 (China)

2012-01-15

Strontium has been widely used in industries like electronic and pharmacy. It has a carcinogenic potential, however, and no study has been conducted to evaluate its effects on cancer risk. The aim of this study was to explore the possible association between strontium and breast cancer risk in a case-control study including 240 incident invasive breast cancer patients and 246 age-matched controls. We measured the urinary concentrations of strontium by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and conducted face-to-face interviews to obtain information on potential breast cancer risk factors. Multivariable analysis was used to estimate the association. Creatinine-adjusted levels [median (25th, 75th) {mu}g/g] of strontium were 155.59 (99.05, 230.70) in the breast cancer patients and 119.62 (81.97, 163.76) in the controls. Women in the highest tertile of strontium showed 124% increased risk of breast cancer, when compared with those in the lowest tertile after adjustment for the potential risk factors [OR (95% CI): 2.24 (1.42-3.81)]. This association was particularly strong for HER2 positive breast cancer [OR (95% CI): 10.92 (3.53-33.77)], and only occurred among premenopausal women. These results suggest a potential role of strontium in the development of breast cancer and urge further studies on the environmental contamination and the physiological and pathological mechanisms of strontium.

Canadian Cancer Risk Management Model: evaluation of cancer control.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, William K; Wolfson, Michael C; Flanagan, William M; Shin, Janey; Goffin, John; Miller, Anthony B; Asakawa, Keiko; Earle, Craig; Mittmann, Nicole; Fairclough, Lee; Oderkirk, Jillian; Finès, Philippe; Gribble, Stephen; Hoch, Jeffrey; Hicks, Chantal; Omariba, D Walter R; Ng, Edward

2013-04-01

The aim of this study was to develop a decision support tool to assess the potential benefits and costs of new healthcare interventions. The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (CPAC) commissioned the development of a Cancer Risk Management Model (CRMM)--a computer microsimulation model that simulates individual lives one at a time, from birth to death, taking account of Canadian demographic and labor force characteristics, risk factor exposures, and health histories. Information from all the simulated lives is combined to produce aggregate measures of health outcomes for the population or for particular subpopulations. The CRMM can project the population health and economic impacts of cancer control programs in Canada and the impacts of major risk factors, cancer prevention, and screening programs and new cancer treatments on population health and costs to the healthcare system. It estimates both the direct costs of medical care, as well as lost earnings and impacts on tax revenues. The lung and colorectal modules are available through the CPAC Web site (www.cancerview.ca/cancerrriskmanagement) to registered users where structured scenarios can be explored for their projected impacts. Advanced users will be able to specify new scenarios or change existing modules by varying input parameters or by accessing open source code. Model development is now being extended to cervical and breast cancers.

Neuromuscular Control Deficits and the Risk of Subsequent Injury after a Concussion: A Scoping Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Howell, David R; Lynall, Robert C; Buckley, Thomas A; Herman, Daniel C

2018-05-01

An emerging area of research has identified that an increased risk of musculoskeletal injury may exist upon returning to sports after a sport-related concussion. The mechanisms underlying this recently discovered phenomenon, however, remain unknown. One theorized reason for this increased injury risk includes residual neuromuscular control deficits that remain impaired despite clinical recovery. Thus, the objectives of this review were: (1) to summarize the literature examining the relationship between concussion and risk of subsequent injury and (2) to summarize the literature for one mechanism with a theorized association with this increased injury risk, i.e., neuromuscular control deficits observed during gait after concussion under dual-task conditions. Two separate reviews were conducted consistent with both specified objectives. Studies published before 9 December, 2016 were identified using PubMed, Web of Science, and Academic Search Premier (EBSCOhost). Inclusion for the objective 1 search included dependent variables of quantitative measurements of musculoskeletal injury after concussion. Inclusion criteria for the objective 2 search included dependent variables pertaining to gait, dynamic balance control, and dual-task function. A total of 32 studies were included in the two reviews (objective 1 n = 10, objective 2 n = 22). According to a variety of study designs, athletes appear to have an increased risk of sustaining a musculoskeletal injury following a concussion. Furthermore, dual-task neuromuscular control deficits may continue to exist after patients report resolution of concussion symptoms, or perform normally on other clinical concussion tests. Therefore, musculoskeletal injury risk appears to increase following a concussion and persistent motor system and attentional deficits also seem to exist after a concussion. While not yet experimentally tested, these motor system and attentional deficits may contribute to the risk of sustaining a

Testing the efficacy of a brief sexual risk reduction intervention among high-risk American Indian adults: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel Chambers

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background American Indian adults are more likely to experience co-occurring mental health and substance use disorders than adults of other racial/ethnic groups and are disproportionately burdened by the most common sexually transmitted infections, namely chlamydia and gonorrhea. Several behavioral interventions are proven efficacious in lowering risk for sexually transmitted infection in various populations and, if adapted to address barriers experienced by American Indian adults who suffer from mental health and substance use problems, may be useful for dissemination in American Indian communities. The proposed study aims to examine the efficacy of an adapted evidence-based intervention to increase condom use and decrease sexual risk-taking and substance use among American Indian adults living in a reservation-based community in the Southwestern United States. Methods/Design The proposed study is a randomized controlled trial to test the efficacy of an adapted evidence-based intervention compared to a control condition. Participants will be American Indian adults ages 18–49 years old who had a recent episode of binge substance use and/or suicide ideation. Participants will be randomized to the intervention, a two-session risk-reduction counseling intervention or the control condition, optimized standard care. All participants will be offered a self-administered sexually transmitted infection test. Participants will complete assessments at baseline, 3 and 6 months follow-up. The primary outcome measure is condom use at last sex. Discussion This is one of the first randomized controlled trials to assess the efficacy of an adapted evidence-based intervention for reducing sexual risk behaviors among AI adults with substance use and mental health problems. If proven successful, there will be an efficacious program for reducing risk behaviors among high-risk adults that can be disseminated in American Indian communities as well as other

Poverty Measurement Under Income Risk. Armutsmessung bei Einkommensrisiken

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weikard, H.P.

2004-01-01

Poverty indices are usually calculated on the basis of (cross section) income data from the past. As past income is fixed and future income is uncertain such measurement does not reflect the ex ante risk of falling into poverty. This paper presents refinements of commonly used poverty measures to

Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bijleveld, F.D. Commandeur, J.J.F. Gould, P. & Koopman, S.J.

2006-01-01

Risk is at the center of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning counter- measures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers on a daily basis and the risk of infection

Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

2003-01-01

Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures…

Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

2000-01-01

Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

Business Process Risk Management, Compliance and Internal Control: A Research Agenda

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rikhardsson, Pall M.; Best, Peter; Green, Peter

(COSO). Based on an inductive methodological approach using literature review and interviews with managers engaged in risk management and internal control projects, this paper identifies three main areas that currently have management attention. These are business process risk management, compliance......Integration of risk management and management control is emerging as an important area in the wake of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and with ongoing development of frameworks such as the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework from the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission...... management and internal control development. This paper discusses these areas and identifies a series of research questions regarding these critical issues....

Measuring and controlling greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourrier, Herve; LAFONT, Bruno; Fischer, Severin; Leonard, Damien; Tutenuit, Claire

2011-05-01

As providing a reporting of their greenhouse gas emissions has become mandatory for a large number of French companies, this publication proposes a methodology to perform an assessment or measurement, and a control of such emissions. In its first part, it explains why measurements are required: indication of concerned gases, international consensus to limit temperature rise, definition and chronology of the main steps adopted at the international level and which must be considered in the approach adopted by enterprises in this respect. It outlines the benefits of such a measurement for the enterprise in terms of competitiveness, personnel commitment, new markets and products, image, compliance with the law, operational and financial aspects, and so on. It identifies the various stakeholders to be informed: civil society, financial community, public authorities, clients and consumers, personnel, suppliers. It outlines the diversity and evolution of legal frameworks at the international level as well as at national levels. While evoking many examples of French companies (SNCF, EDF, Seche Environnement, RTE, Michelin, Arcelormittal, AREVA, Air France, EADS-Airbus, AXA, Veolia, and so on), the next part addresses how to measure emissions. It outlines the complexity of the methodological landscape with its various criteria, evokes the various existing standards, outlines the distinction between organisation-based, product-based and project-based approaches, and the distinction between direct and indirect emissions in relationship with the notion of scope. It comments the existence of sector-based methodologies and guidelines, and discusses some difficulties and methodological decisions. The third part proposes some lessons learned from the experience which could lead to a harmonisation of methodologies, proposes a synthesis of reporting approaches, outlines risks and opportunities related to communication

Measurement of biofilm thickness. An effective Legionella risk assessment tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Foret, Christophe [BKG France, Arnage (France); Martemianov, Serguei [Poitiers Univ. (FR). Lab. of Thermal Study (LET); Moscow Univ. (Russian Federation). Frumkin Inst. of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry; Hater, Wolfgang [BK Giulini GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany); Merlet, Nicole; Chaussec, Guenole; Tribollet, Bernard

2010-02-15

The best way to prevent the risk of bacterial growth in water systems is to monitor and control the microorganisms (biofilm) attached to pipe walls. Three years of laboratory research led two Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (French National Center for Scientific Research) teams (UMR 6008 and UPR 15) to develop a tool designed to determine the average biofilm thickness. The average biofilm thickness measurements carried out on pilot plants fed with natural water were sufficiently accurate and sensitive to monitor the formation and development of biofilm in a water system and to determine the efficiency of the applied treatments. The implementation of appropriate treatments (type and dose of the treatment product) leads to a significant reduction in or even complete removal of the porous layer on the material surface. A reduction of the attached biomass, measured by the sensor, is connected to a decrease in the density of the bacterial attached to the material (viable flora in the plate count agar environment). (orig.)

Association of Anthropometric Measurement Methods with Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaan Sözmen

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study is to compare the predic­tive power of anthropometric indices for risk of developing Coronary Heart Disease (CHD or CHD death. Methods: We used cross-sectional data from nationally representative Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Sur­vey conducted by the Ministry of Health in 2011. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, waist to height ratio (WHtR, body adiposity index (BAI and A Body Shape Index (ABSI formed the anthropometric measures. For each participant risk of de­veloping CHD or dying from CVDs were calculated based on Framingham and SCORE risk equations. Predictive ability of anthropometric measurements was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results: Anthropometric measurements of central obe­sity recorded higher area under the ROC curve (AUC values than BMI in both men and women. While ABSI had the highest AUC values for Framingham 10-year pre­dicted risk (FRS for CHD death (AUC = 0.613, SCORE 10-year risk for CVD death (AUC = 0.633, in women AUC for ABSI was the highest for only SCORE risk threshold (AUC = 0.705. Among women, WHtR was found to be the best indicator for estimating CHD incidence (AUC = 0.706 and death from CVD (AUC = 0.696. Conclusion: Compared to traditional anthropometric measurements such as BMI, ABSI was a better indicator for given thresholds for estimating the risk of developing CHD and CVD death in men. Among women WHtR made better predictions for FRS thresholds, however, ABSI was better for predicting 10-year risk of CVD death calculated by SCORE risk equation.

The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knoope, M. M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364248149; Raben, I. M E; Ramírez, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Spruijt, M. P N; Faaij, A. P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures

The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO 2pipelines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knoope, M.M.J.; Raben. I.M.E.; Ramírez, A.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Faaij, A.P.C.

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design,costs and routing of CO2pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2pipelinetransport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is

Protocol for the 'e-Nudge trial': a randomised controlled trial of electronic feedback to reduce the cardiovascular risk of individuals in general practice [ISRCTN64828380

Science.gov (United States)

Holt, Tim A; Thorogood, Margaret; Griffiths, Frances; Munday, Stephen

2006-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (including coronary heart disease and stroke) is a major cause of death and disability in the United Kingdom, and is to a large extent preventable, by lifestyle modification and drug therapy. The recent standardisation of electronic codes for cardiovascular risk variables through the United Kingdom's new General Practice contract provides an opportunity for the application of risk algorithms to identify high risk individuals. This randomised controlled trial will test the benefits of an automated system of alert messages and practice searches to identify those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease in primary care databases. Design Patients over 50 years old in practice databases will be randomised to the intervention group that will receive the alert messages and searches, and a control group who will continue to receive usual care. In addition to those at high estimated risk, potentially high risk patients will be identified who have insufficient data to allow a risk estimate to be made. Further groups identified will be those with possible undiagnosed diabetes, based either on elevated past recorded blood glucose measurements, or an absence of recent blood glucose measurement in those with established cardiovascular disease. Outcome measures The intervention will be applied for two years, and outcome data will be collected for a further year. The primary outcome measure will be the annual rate of cardiovascular events in the intervention and control arms of the study. Secondary measures include the proportion of patients at high estimated cardiovascular risk, the proportion of patients with missing data for a risk estimate, and the proportion with undefined diabetes status at the end of the trial. PMID:16646967

Protocol for the 'e-Nudge trial': a randomised controlled trial of electronic feedback to reduce the cardiovascular risk of individuals in general practice [ISRCTN64828380

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Griffiths Frances

2006-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (including coronary heart disease and stroke is a major cause of death and disability in the United Kingdom, and is to a large extent preventable, by lifestyle modification and drug therapy. The recent standardisation of electronic codes for cardiovascular risk variables through the United Kingdom's new General Practice contract provides an opportunity for the application of risk algorithms to identify high risk individuals. This randomised controlled trial will test the benefits of an automated system of alert messages and practice searches to identify those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease in primary care databases. Design Patients over 50 years old in practice databases will be randomised to the intervention group that will receive the alert messages and searches, and a control group who will continue to receive usual care. In addition to those at high estimated risk, potentially high risk patients will be identified who have insufficient data to allow a risk estimate to be made. Further groups identified will be those with possible undiagnosed diabetes, based either on elevated past recorded blood glucose measurements, or an absence of recent blood glucose measurement in those with established cardiovascular disease. Outcome measures The intervention will be applied for two years, and outcome data will be collected for a further year. The primary outcome measure will be the annual rate of cardiovascular events in the intervention and control arms of the study. Secondary measures include the proportion of patients at high estimated cardiovascular risk, the proportion of patients with missing data for a risk estimate, and the proportion with undefined diabetes status at the end of the trial.

Risk and Management Control: A Partial Least Square Modelling Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Steen; Pontoppidan, Iens Christian

Risk and economic theory goes many year back (e.g. to Keynes & Knight 1921) and risk/uncertainty belong to one of the explanations for the existence of the firm (Coarse, 1937). The present financial crisis going on in the past years have re-accentuated risk and the need of coherence...... and interrelations between risk and areas within management accounting. The idea is that management accounting should be able to conduct a valid feed forward but also predictions for decision making including risk. This study reports the test of a theoretical model using partial least squares (PLS) on survey data...... and a external attitude dimension. The results have important implications for both management control research and for the management control systems design for the way accountants consider the element of risk in their different tasks, both operational and strategic. Specifically, it seems that different risk...

Vibration perception threshold in relation to postural control and fall risk assessment in elderly.

Science.gov (United States)

de Mettelinge, Tine Roman; Calders, Patrick; Palmans, Tanneke; Vanden Bossche, Luc; Van Den Noortgate, Nele; Cambier, Dirk

2013-09-01

This study investigates (i) the potential discriminative role of a clinical measure of peripheral neuropathy (PN) in assessing postural performance and fall risk and (ii) whether the integration of a simple screening vibration perception threshold (VPT) for PN in any physical (fall risk) assessment among elderly should be recommended, even if they do not suffer from DM. One hundred and ninety-five elderly were entered in a four-group model: DM with PN (D+; n = 75), DM without PN (D-; n = 28), non-diabetic elderly with idiopathic PN (C+; n = 31) and non-diabetic elderly without PN (C-; n = 61). Posturographic sway parameters were captured during different static balance conditions (AMTI AccuGait, Watertown, MA). VPT, fall data, Mini-Mental State Examination and Clock Drawing Test were registered. Two-factor repeated-measures ANOVA was used to compare between groups and across balance conditions. The groups with PN demonstrated a strikingly comparable, though bigger sway, and a higher prospective fall incidence than their peers without PN. The indication of PN, irrespective of its cause, interferes with postural control and fall incidence. The integration of a simple screening for PN (like bio-thesiometry) in any fall risk assessment among elderly is highly recommended. Implications for Rehabilitation The indication of peripheral neuropathy (PN), irrespective of its cause, interferes with postural control and fall incidence. Therefore, the integration of a simple screening for PN (like bio-thesiometry) in any fall risk assessment among elderly is highly recommended. It might be useful to integrate somatosensory stimulation in rehabilitation programs designed for fall prevention.

Risk Measurement of Equity Markets and Private Investor Behaviour

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanislav Škapa

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this article: The aim of this paper is to evaluate and determine risk profile of equities markets and conclude consequency for private investor portfolios. There is summarized broad issue of risk measuremen with a focuse on downside risk measurement principle and giving into context with expected utility theory and loss aversion theory. Methodology/methods: The suitable statistical methods (mainly robust statistical methods have been used for estimation of selected characteristics and ratios. There is used a computer intensive method (a bootstrap method for estimating risk characteristics for equity markets, indicators and ratios. Scientific aim: The main scientific aim is to use a complex of more sophisticated and theoretically advanced statistical techniques and apply them on on the finding of the expected utility theory and the loss aversion theory. Findings: A main finding should be reckon a using of results of loss aversion theory applied into empirical evidence of risk profile of equity markets which led to the finding that more reliable and more suitable evaluation of risk of equity markets is downside risk and Sortino ratio from the perpective of private investor. Conclusion: Using downside risk measurement is revealing as it lays bare the “true” risk of investing in stock markets mainly for risk averse private investors. A bootstrap method with down side risk metric can evaluate risk in more appropriate way, and it is also more suitable if statistical characteristics do not fulfil a normal distribution assumption (mostly because of fat tails or outliers. And lastly in general, investors in emerging market (e.g. Visegrad´s countries are rewarded with higher return, but if things go wrong, the damage can be severe and detrimental to performance.

Measurement error and timing of predictor values for multivariable risk prediction models are poorly reported.

Science.gov (United States)

Whittle, Rebecca; Peat, George; Belcher, John; Collins, Gary S; Riley, Richard D

2018-05-18

Measurement error in predictor variables may threaten the validity of clinical prediction models. We sought to evaluate the possible extent of the problem. A secondary objective was to examine whether predictors are measured at the intended moment of model use. A systematic search of Medline was used to identify a sample of articles reporting the development of a clinical prediction model published in 2015. After screening according to a predefined inclusion criteria, information on predictors, strategies to control for measurement error and intended moment of model use were extracted. Susceptibility to measurement error for each predictor was classified into low and high risk. Thirty-three studies were reviewed, including 151 different predictors in the final prediction models. Fifty-one (33.7%) predictors were categorised as high risk of error, however this was not accounted for in the model development. Only 8 (24.2%) studies explicitly stated the intended moment of model use and when the predictors were measured. Reporting of measurement error and intended moment of model use is poor in prediction model studies. There is a need to identify circumstances where ignoring measurement error in prediction models is consequential and whether accounting for the error will improve the predictions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

University building safety index measurement using risk and implementation matrix

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, A.; Arumsari, F.; Maryani, A.

2018-04-01

Many high rise building constructed in several universities in Indonesia. The high-rise building management must provide the safety planning and proper safety equipment in each part of the building. Unfortunately, most of the university in Indonesia have not been applying safety policy yet and less awareness on treating safety facilities. Several fire accidents in university showed that some significant risk should be managed by the building management. This research developed a framework for measuring the high rise building safety index in university The framework is not only assessed the risk magnitude but also designed modular building safety checklist for measuring the safety implementation level. The safety checklist has been developed for 8 types of the university rooms, i.e.: office, classroom, 4 type of laboratories, canteen, and library. University building safety index determined using risk-implementation matrix by measuring the risk magnitude and assessing the safety implementation level. Building Safety Index measurement has been applied in 4 high rise buildings in ITS Campus. The building assessment showed that the rectorate building in secure condition and chemical department building in beware condition. While the library and administration center building was in less secure condition.

Increasing young adults' condom use intentions and behaviour through changing chlamydia risk and coping appraisals: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial of efficacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Newby, Katie V; French, David P; Brown, Katherine E; Lecky, Donna M

2013-05-30

Chlamydia is the most commonly diagnosed sexually transmitted infection (STI) in England and has serious public health consequences. Young people carry a disproportionate burden of infection. A number of social cognition models identify risk appraisal as a primary motivator of behaviour suggesting that changing risk appraisals for STIs may be an effective strategy in motivating protective behaviour. Meta-analytic evidence indicates that the relationship between risk appraisal and health behaviour is small, but studies examining this relationship have been criticised for their many conceptual and methodological weaknesses. The effect of risk appraisal on health behaviour may therefore be of larger size. The proposed study aims to examine the efficacy of an intervention to increase condom use intentions and behaviour amongst young people through changing chlamydia risk and coping appraisals. Coping appraisal is targeted to avoid the intervention being counterproductive amongst recipients who do not feel able to perform the behaviour required to reduce the threat. An experimental design with follow-up, a conditional measure of risk appraisal, and analysis which controls for past behaviour, enable the relationship between risk appraisal and protective behaviour to be accurately assessed. The proposed study is a two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial using a waiting-list control design to test the efficacy of the intervention compared to a control group. Participants will be school pupils aged 13-16 years old recruited from approximately ten secondary schools. Schools will be randomised into each arm. Participants will receive their usual teaching on STIs but those in the intervention condition will additionally receive a single-session sex education lesson on chlamydia. Measures will be taken at baseline, post-intervention and at follow-up three months later. The primary outcome measure is intention to use condoms with casual sexual partners. As far as the authors

76 FR 38293 - Risk Management Controls for Brokers or Dealers With Market Access

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-30

... 3235-AK53 Risk Management Controls for Brokers or Dealers With Market Access AGENCY: Securities and... of risk management controls and supervisory procedures that, among other things, is reasonably... relevant risk management controls and supervisory procedures required under the Rule. DATES: The effective...

Measuring Risk Structure Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zdeněk Konečný

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This article is aimed at proposing of an inovative method for calculating the shares of operational and financial risks. This methodological tool will support managers while monitoring the risk structure. The method is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM for calculation of equity cost, namely on determination of the beta coefficient, which is the only variable, that is dependent on entrepreneurial risk. There are combined both alternative approaches for calculation betas, which means, that there are accounting data used and there is distinguished unlevered beta and levered beta. The novelty of the proposed method is based on including of quantities for measuring operational and financial risks in beta calculation. The volatility of cash flow, as a quantity for measuring of operational risk, is included in the unlevered beta. Return on equity based on the cash flow and the indebtedness are variables used in calculation of the levered beta. This modification makes it possible to calculate the share of operational risk as the proportion of the unlevered/levered beta and the share of financial risk, which is the remainder of levered beta. The modified method is applied on companies from two sectors of the Czech economy. In the data set there are companies from one cyclical sector and from one neutral sector to find out potential differences in the risk structure. The findings show, that in both sectors the share of operational risk is over 50%, however, in the neutral sector is this more dominant.

Functional Measures for Fall Risk in the Acute Care Setting: A Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Bassett, Alaina M; Siu, Ka-Chun; Honaker, Julie A

2017-04-01

This review explores the evidence pertaining to the use of functional ability measures for fall risk in the acute care setting. We included studies from six bibliographic databases that investigated fall risk functional ability measures in hospitalized older adults (≥55 years). We utilized the following search terms: acute care, subacute care, critical care, inpatient, fall, and fall prevention. Nineteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Timed "Up and Go" (TUG) was identified as a feasible fall risk functional ability measure for clinicians; it demonstrated clinical performance of fair sensitivity (56%-68%) and good specificity (74%-80%). Clinical performance of other measures (Berg Balance Scale and Functional Reach test) was not as favorable as the TUG. Functional ability measures are underutilized in the acute care setting, potentially due to limited knowledge and training on administration. Combining functional measures with subjective screening tools may optimize performance and accuracy of identifying fall risk identification.

Perceived Barriers to Adherence to Tuberculosis Infection Control Measures among Health Care Workers in the Dominican Republic.

Science.gov (United States)

Chapman, Helena J; Veras-Estévez, Bienvenido A; Pomeranz, Jamie L; Pérez-Then, Eddy N; Marcelino, Belkys; Lauzardo, Michael

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION Health care workers have an increased risk of infection due to occupational Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure, including multidrug-resistant strains. Health care workers' risk of developing tuberculosis is greater than that of the general population, whether in low-, intermediate- or high-incidence countries. Adherence to infection control measures (administrative controls, environmental controls, and personal respiratory protection) is essential to reduce risk of disease transmission between suspected tuberculosis patients and health care workers, but for different reasons, both objective and subjective, adherence is low. Identifying the causes of low adherence is a prerequisite to effective programming to reduce risk. OBJECTIVE Identify perceived barriers to adherence to tuberculosis infection control measures among health care workers in the Dominican Republic. METHODS During August 2014, a qualitative study was conducted in two tertiary-level hospitals in different regions of the Dominican Republic. A semi-structured interview guide of nine questions was developed, based on the scientific literature and with consensus of clinical experts. Nine semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of seven physicians (five men, two women) and two baccalaureate nurses (both women) working in the emergency medicine, internal medicine or nursing departments of those institutions. Question topics included clinical experience of M. tuberculosis infection and disease; knowledge of disease transmission and preventive practices; clinical management strategies; and perceptions of effectiveness of directly observed treatment, short-course, and disease coping strategies. RESULTS Perceived barriers were described as: 1) sense of invincibility of health care workers; 2) personal beliefs of health care workers related to direct patient communication; 3) low provider-to-patient ratios in hospitals; 4) absence of tuberculosis isolation units for

Measurement control for plutonium isotopic measurements using gamma-ray spectrometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleissner, J.G.

1985-01-01

A measurement control (MC) program should be an integral part of every nondestructive assay measurement system used for the assay of special nuclear materials. This report describes an MC program for plutonium isotopic composition measurements using high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy. This MC program emphasizes the standardization of data collection procedures along with the implementation of internal and external measurement control checks to provide the requisite measurement quality assurance. This report also describes the implementation of the MC program in the isotopic analysis code GRPAUT. Recommendations are given concerning the importance and frequency of the various MC checks in order to ensure a successful implementation of the MC procedures for the user's application

Chaotic dynamic behavior analysis and control for a financial risk system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xiao-Dan; Zheng Yuan; Liu Xiang-Dong; Liu Cheng

2013-01-01

According to the risk management process of financial markets, a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper. Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties, we obtain the conditions for stability and bifurcation of the system based on Hopf bifurcation theory of nonlinear dynamic systems. In order to make the system's chaos disappear, we select the feedback gain matrix to design a class of chaotic controller. Numerical simulations are performed to reveal the change process of financial market risk. It is shown that, when the parameter of risk transmission rate changes, the system gradually comes into chaos from the asymptotically stable state through bifurcation. The controller can then control the chaos effectively

75 FR 4007 - Risk Management Controls for Brokers or Dealers With Market Access

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-26

... 3235-AK53 Risk Management Controls for Brokers or Dealers With Market Access AGENCY: Securities and... or other persons, to implement risk management controls and supervisory procedures reasonably... access may not utilize any pre-trade risk management controls (i.e., ``unfiltered'' or ``naked'' access...

Non interacting control by measurement feedback

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Woude, van der J.W.

1987-01-01

In this paper we shall solve the problem of non interacting control by measurement feedback for systems that in addition to a control input and a measurement output have two exogenous inputs and two exogenous outputs. That is, we shall derive necessary and sufficient conditions that can actually be

Avian influenza transmission risks: analysis of biosecurity measures and contact structure in Dutch poultry farming.

Science.gov (United States)

Ssematimba, A; Hagenaars, T J; de Wit, J J; Ruiterkamp, F; Fabri, T H; Stegeman, J A; de Jong, M C M

2013-04-01

In the 2003 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry, between-farm virus transmission continued for considerable time despite control measures. Gaining more insight into the mechanisms of this spread is necessary for the possible development of better control strategies. We carried out an in-depth interview study aiming to systematically explore all the poultry production activities to identify the activities that could potentially be related to virus introduction and transmission. One of the between-farm contact risks that were identified is the movement of birds between farms during thinning with violations of on-farm biosecurity protocols. In addition, several other risky management practices, risky visitor behaviours and biosecurity breaches were identified. They include human and fomite contacts that occurred without observing biosecurity protocols, poor waste management practices, presence of other animal species on poultry farms, and poor biosecurity against risks from farm neighbourhood activities. Among the detailed practices identified, taking cell phones and jewellery into poultry houses, not observing shower-in protocols and the exchange of unclean farm equipment were common. Also, sometimes certain protocols or biosecurity facilities were lacking. We also asked the interviewed farmers about their perception of transmission risks and found that they had divergent opinions about the visitor- and neighbourhood-associated risks. We performed a qualitative assessment of contact risks (as transmission pathways) based on contact type, corresponding biosecurity practices, and contact frequency. This assessment suggests that the most risky contact types are bird movements during thinning and restocking, most human movements accessing poultry houses and proximity to other poultry farms. The overall risk posed by persons and equipment accessing storage rooms and the premises-only contacts was considered to be medium. Most of the exposure

Fundamental data analyses for measurement control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, K.; Barlich, G.L.; Fazal, B.; Strittmatter, R.B.

1987-02-01

A set of measurment control data analyses was selected for use by analysts responsible for maintaining measurement quality of nuclear materials accounting instrumentation. The analyses consist of control charts for bias and precision and statistical tests used as analytic supplements to the control charts. They provide the desired detection sensitivity and yet can be interpreted locally, quickly, and easily. The control charts provide for visual inspection of data and enable an alert reviewer to spot problems possibly before statistical tests detect them. The statistical tests are useful for automating the detection of departures from the controlled state or from the underlying assumptions (such as normality). 8 refs., 3 figs., 5 tabs

Risk evaluation and control strategies for indoor radon: a brief discussion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nero, A.V. Jr.

1994-01-01

Average risks of death estimated for radon are larger than those for many exposures in the outdoor environment, but similar to some in industrial settings. However, the indoor environment differs in regard to cost, benefit, responsibility, and distribution of risks from the outdoor and occupational settings, where frameworks for setting risk-limiting objectives and strategies have already been developed substantially. This indicates the need to develop a conceptual framework for evaluating risks in the indoor environment, within which the objectives of radon control strategies can be sensibly chosen. Nevertheless, the range of estimated radon risks and of recent radon control strategies suggest near-term elements of any strategy, i.e. accurate and effective public information, as well as reliable monitoring and control capabilities, and a focus on areas where most high residential levels occur. Developing a conceptual framework for evaluating indoor risks will permit the formulation of suitable aims on average indoor exposures and lower exposure situations. (author)

Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

Science.gov (United States)

Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

2018-01-01

In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

No association between static and dynamic postural control and ACL injury risk among female elite handball and football players: a prospective study of 838 players.

Science.gov (United States)

Steffen, Kathrin; Nilstad, Agnethe; Krosshaug, Tron; Pasanen, Kati; Killingmo, Aleksander; Bahr, Roald

2017-02-01

Research on balance measures as potential risk factors for ACL injury is limited. To assess whether postural control was associated with an increased risk for ACL injuries in female elite handball and football players. Premier league players were tested in the preseason and followed prospectively for ACL injury risk from 2007 through 2015. At baseline, we recorded player demographics, playing experience, ACL and ankle injury history. We measured centre of pressure velocity in single-leg stabilisation tests and reach distances in the Star Excursion Balance Test. To examine the stability of postural control measures over time, we examined their short-term and long-term reproducibility. We generated logistic regression models, 1 for each of the proposed risk factors. A total of 55 (6.6%) out of 838 players (age 21±4 years; height 170±6 cm; body mass 66±8 kg) sustained a non-contact ACL injury after baseline testing (1.8±1.8 years). When comparing normalised balance measures between injured and uninjured players in univariate analyses, none of the variables were statistically associated with ACL injury risk. Short-term and long-term reproducibility of the selected variables was poor. Players with a previous ACL injury had a 3-fold higher risk of sustaining a new ACL injury compared with previously uninjured players (OR 2.9, CI 1.4 to 5.7). None of postural control measures examined were associated with increased ACL injury risk among female elite handball and football players. Hence, as measured in the current investigation, the variables included cannot be used to predict ACL injury risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Microneedle Manufacture: Assessing Hazards and Control Measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Martin

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Transdermal microneedles have captured the attention of researchers in relation to a variety of applications, and silicone-based moulds required to produce these systems are now widely available and can be readily manufactured on the lab bench. There is however some concern over the potential for accidental needlestick injuries and, as with any sharp hazard, the potential for blood-borne pathogen transmission must be considered. This follows from recent governmental concerns over the use of microneedle systems in dermabrasion. Despite the piercing nature of the microneedle patch sharing many similarities with conventional hypodermic needles, there are notable factors that mitigate the risk of contamination. A range of microneedle systems has been prepared using micromoulding techniques, and their puncture capability assessed. A critical assessment of the potential for accidental puncture and the control measures needed to ensure safe utilisation of the patch systems is presented.

House dust mite control measures for asthma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gøtzsche, Peter C.; Johansen, Helle Krogh

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: The major allergen in house dust comes from mites. Chemical, physical and combined methods of reducing mite allergen levels are intended to reduce asthma symptoms in people who are sensitive to house dust mites. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of reducing exposure to house dust mite...... antigens in the homes of people with mite-sensitive asthma. SEARCH STRATEGY: PubMed and The Cochrane Library (last searches Nov 2007), reference lists. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised trials of mite control measures vs placebo or no treatment in people with asthma known to be sensitive to house dust mites......), the standardised mean difference was 0.00 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.10 to 0.10). There were no statistically significant differences either in number of patients improved (relative risk 1.01, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.27), asthma symptom scores (standardised mean difference -0.04, 95% CI -0.15 to 0...

Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ekaterina V. Tulupova

2011-05-01

Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

Risk factors for unintentional poisoning in children aged 1-3 years in NSW Australia: a case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmertmann, Marcia; Williamson, Ann; Black, Deborah; Wilson, Leigh

2013-05-24

Unintentional poisoning in young children is an important public health issue. Age pattern studies have demonstrated that children aged 1-3 years have the highest levels of poisoning risk among children aged 0-4 years, yet little research has been conducted regarding risk factors specific to this three-year age group and the methodologies employed varied greatly. The purpose of the current study is to investigate a broad range of potential risk factors for unintentional poisoning in children aged 1-3 years using appropriate methodologies. Four groups of children, one case group (children who had experienced a poisoning event) and three control groups (children who had been 'injured', 'sick' or who were 'healthy'), and their mothers (mother-child dyads) were enrolled into a case-control study. All mother-child dyads participated in a 1.5-hour child developmental screening and observation, with mothers responding to a series of questionnaires at home. Data were analysed as three case-control pairs with multivariate analyses used to control for age and sex differences between child cases and controls. Five risk factors were included in the final multivariate models for one or more case-control pairs. All three models found that children whose mothers used more positive control in their interactions during a structured task had higher odds of poisoning. Two models showed that maternal psychiatric distress increased poisoning risk (poisoning-injury and poisoning-healthy). Individual models identified the following variables as risk factors: less proximal maternal supervision during risk taking activities (poisoning-injury), medicinal substances stored in more accessible locations in bathrooms (poisoning-sick) and lower total parenting stress (poisoning-healthy). The findings of this study indicate that the nature of the caregiver-child relationship and caregiver attributes play an important role in influencing poisoning risk. Further research is warranted to explore the

Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Markus Liebig

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

2017-07-20

For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

2012-01-01

Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose–response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials’ physical–chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

Science.gov (United States)

Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

2012-09-01

Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose-response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials' physical-chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

Effect of internal controls on credit risk among listed Spanish banks

OpenAIRE

Akwaa-Sekyi, Ellis Kofi; Moreno Gené, Jordi

2016-01-01

Purpose: The paper examines the effectiveness of internal control systems, explores the exposure of Spanish banks to the dangers of default as a result of internal control systems and establishes a relationship between internal controls and credit risk. Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative research approach is used to test hypotheses on the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in Spain. Data from Bankscope and company websites from 2004-2013 were used...

Poor sleep quality has an adverse effect on childhood asthma control and lung function measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheen, Youn Ho; Choi, Sun Hee; Jang, Sun Jung; Baek, Ji Hyeon; Jee, Hye Mi; Kim, Mi Ae; Chae, Kyu Young; Han, Man Yong

2017-08-01

It is unclear as to whether sleep respiratory breathing disorder (SRBD) is a risk factor for uncontrolled asthma in children. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate whether SRBD may have an adverse effect on childhood asthma control and lung function measures. This was a cross-sectional study of 220 children with well-controlled (n = 108), partly controlled (n = 92), and uncontrolled asthma (n = 20) according to the Global Initiative for Asthma guideline. SRBD was assessed using the Pediatric Sleep Questionnaire (PSQ). The association of SRBD with partly controlled/uncontrolled asthma was investigated on multivariate logistic regression analysis. Of 220 children with asthma, 43 (19.6%) had SRBD: well-controlled, 16.7% (18/108); partly controlled, 21.7% (20/92); and uncontrolled, 25.0% (5/20; P = 0.54). There was a significant difference in forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity (FEV 1 /FVC; P = 0.007) and childhood asthma control test (C-ACT) score (P asthma control status, but not in PSQ score (P = 0.18). Children with obstructive sleep apnea (PSQ >0.33) had a lower C-ACT score compared with controls (PSQ ≤0.33; 19.6 ± 5.1 vs 22.0 ± 4.2, P = 0.002). PSQ score was negatively correlated with FEV 1 /FVC (r = -0.16, P = 0.02). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, high PSQ score increased the odds of having partly controlled/uncontrolled asthma by 9.12 (95% CI: 1.04-79.72, P = 0.046) after adjusting for confounding factors. SRBD is an independent risk factor for partly controlled/uncontrolled asthma and has an adverse effect on lung function measures in children. Further research is warranted to determine whether the improvement of sleep quality may also enhance level of asthma control and lung function in children. © 2017 Japan Pediatric Society.

Risk factors for chronic periodontitis in Sri Lankan adults: a population based case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wellapuli, Nimali; Ekanayake, Lilani

2017-09-07

To determine risk factors for chronic periodontitis in 30-60 year olds in Sri Lanka. Cases and controls for this population based unmatched case-control study were identified from a broader cross-sectional study which was conducted to determine the prevalence of chronic periodontitis in 30-60 year old adults in Colombo district Sri Lanka. The study included 694 cases and 706 controls. Data were collected by means of a pre-tested interviewer administered questionnaire to obtain information about socio-demographic and behavioural factors, a physical examination to record anthropometric measurements and an oral examination. Being a male, a Muslim, belonging to the 45-60 year old age group, having less than 12 years of education, using the finger to clean teeth, current smoking, current betel quid chewing, self-reported diabetes and hypertension emerged as risk factors for chronic periodontitis. Several socio-demographic and behavioural factors as well as co-morbid conditions emerged as independent risk factors for chronic periodontits in this population. The findings could be used for planning programmes to reduce the burden of chronic periodontits in Colombo district Sri Lanka.

Vehicle rollover risk and electronic stability control systems.

Science.gov (United States)

MacLennan, P A; Marshall, T; Griffin, R; Purcell, M; McGwin, G; Rue, L W

2008-06-01

Electronic stability control (ESC) systems were developed to reduce motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) caused by loss of control. Introduced in Europe in 1995 and in the USA in 1996, ESC is designed to improve vehicle lateral stability by electronically detecting and automatically assisting drivers in unfavorable situations. To examine the relationship between vehicle rollover risk and presence of ESC using a large national database of MVCs. A retrospective cohort study for the period 1995 through 2006 was carried out using data obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System. All passenger cars and sport utility vehicles (SUVs)/vans of model year 1996 and later were eligible. Vehicle ESC (unavailable, optional, standard) was determined on the basis of make, model, and model year. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs were calculated to compare rollover risk by vehicle ESC group. For all crashes, vehicles equipped with standard ESC had decreased risk of rollover (RR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.77) compared with vehicles with ESC unavailable. The association was consistent for single-vehicle MVCs (RR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.82); passenger cars had decreased rollover risk (RR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.12), but SUVs/vans had a more dramatically decreased risk (RR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.61). This study supports previous results showing ESC to be effective in reducing the risk of rollover. ESC is more effective in SUVs/vans for rollovers related to single-vehicle MVCs.

Controlling You Watching Me: Measuring Perception Control on Social Media.

Science.gov (United States)

Keep, Melanie; Attrill-Smith, Alison

2017-09-01

Online self-presentation assumes that individuals intentionally control how others perceive them based on their online behaviors. Existing tools are limited in their ability to measure this notion of perception control and there is little understanding around factors which may affect the desire for perception control. This article reports on the development of a perception control scale and comparisons of perception control across age and between genders. A total of 222 participants completed an online survey with items measuring perception control and participant demographics. A principal component analysis revealed a one-factor, 12-item scale explaining 41.14% of the variance. Perception control was found to increase with age and did not differ between genders. Results are consistent with existing impression management research suggesting that while participants of both genders desire to control how others perceive them, as a person's sense of self stabilizes over time, they are less motivated to change their behaviors to control others' impressions of them.

Simplifying the audit of risk factor recording and control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Min; Cooney, Marie Therese; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: To simplify the assessment of the recording and control of coronary heart disease risk factors in different countries and regions. DESIGN: The SUrvey of Risk Factors (SURF) is an international clinical audit. METHODS: Data on consecutive patients with established coronary heart disease...

The application of hazard analysis and critical control points and risk management in the preparation of anti-cancer drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonan, Brigitte; Martelli, Nicolas; Berhoune, Malik; Maestroni, Marie-Laure; Havard, Laurent; Prognon, Patrice

2009-02-01

To apply the Hazard analysis and Critical Control Points method to the preparation of anti-cancer drugs. To identify critical control points in our cancer chemotherapy process and to propose control measures and corrective actions to manage these processes. The Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points application began in January 2004 in our centralized chemotherapy compounding unit. From October 2004 to August 2005, monitoring of the process nonconformities was performed to assess the method. According to the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points method, a multidisciplinary team was formed to describe and assess the cancer chemotherapy process. This team listed all of the critical points and calculated their risk indexes according to their frequency of occurrence, their severity and their detectability. The team defined monitoring, control measures and corrective actions for each identified risk. Finally, over a 10-month period, pharmacists reported each non-conformity of the process in a follow-up document. Our team described 11 steps in the cancer chemotherapy process. The team identified 39 critical control points, including 11 of higher importance with a high-risk index. Over 10 months, 16,647 preparations were performed; 1225 nonconformities were reported during this same period. The Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points method is relevant when it is used to target a specific process such as the preparation of anti-cancer drugs. This method helped us to focus on the production steps, which can have a critical influence on product quality, and led us to improve our process.

Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Feilin; Zhong, Ping-An; Sun, Yimeng; Yeh, William W.-G.

2017-12-01

Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability.

A holistic approach to control process safety risks: Possible ways forward

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pasman, H.J.; Knegtering, B.; Rogers, W.J.

2013-01-01

system, the process industry is monitoring safety performance indicators. The critical intensity level upon which management must be alarmed is less simple. Risk assessment may be improved, made dynamic, and be a tool of process control by taking account of short-term risk fluctuations based on sensor signals and the influence of human factors with its long-term changes via indicators. Bayesian network can provide the infrastructure. The paper will describe various complexities when applying a holistic control of safety to a process plant in general, and it will more specifically focus on safeguarding measures such as barriers and other controls with some examples. -- Highlights: • Complexity of process installations makes risk control of a process challenging. • Erosive drift by cost pressure and efficiency increase may undermine safety level. • Resilience engineering in socio-psychological context analyzed this successfully. • There is prospect too to develop the technical side of process safety resilience. • Process safety performance indicator information may help to establish risk level

Validation of parental reports of asthma trajectory, burden, and risk by using the pediatric asthma control and communication instrument.

Science.gov (United States)

Okelo, Sande O; Eakin, Michelle N; Riekert, Kristin A; Teodoro, Alvin P; Bilderback, Andrew L; Thompson, Darcy A; Loiaza-Martinez, Antonio; Rand, Cynthia S; Thyne, Shannon; Diette, Gregory B; Patino, Cecilia M

2014-01-01

Despite a growing interest, few pediatric asthma questionnaires assess multiple dimensions of asthma morbidity, as recommended by national asthma guidelines, or use patient-reported outcomes. To evaluate a questionnaire that measures multiple dimensions of parent-reported asthma morbidity (Direction, Bother, and Risk). We administered the Pediatric Asthma Control and Communication Instrument (PACCI) and assessed asthma control (PACCI Control), quality of life, and lung function among children who presented for routine asthma care. The PACCI was evaluated for discriminative validity. A total of 317 children participated (mean age, 8.2 years; 58% boys; 44% African American). As parent-reported PACCI Direction changed from "better" to "worse," we observed poorer asthma control (P < .001), mean Pediatric Asthma Caregiver Quality of Life Questionnaire (PACQLQ) scores (P < .001), and FEV1% (P = .025). Linear regression showed that, for each change in PACCI Direction, the mean PACQLQ score decreased by -0.6 (95% CI, -0.8 to -0.4). As parent-reported PACCI Bother changed from "not bothered" to "very bothered," we observed poorer asthma control (P < .001) and lower mean PACQLQ scores (P < .001). Linear regression showed that, for each change in PACCI Bother category, the mean PACQLQ score decreased by -1.1 (95% CI, -1.3 to -0.9). Any reported PACCI Risk event (emergency department visit, hospitalization, or use of an oral corticosteroid) was associated with poorer asthma control (P < .05) and PACQLQ scores (P < .01). PACCI Direction, Bother, and Risk are valid measures of parent-reported outcomes and show good discriminative validity. The PACCI is a simple clinical tool to assess multiple dimensions of parent-reported asthma morbidity, in addition to risk and control. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Establishing a volumetric measurement control program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holt, S.H.; Jenkins, E.W.

1993-01-01

At the Savannah River Site (SRS), several facilities have nearly all their special nuclear material in solution and therefore, volume measurements play a key role in the accountability of these materials. Normally, facilities rely on frequent instrument calibrations, periodic tank calibrations and proper instrument configuration to ensure measurement control. At SRS, methods have been employed that go beyond these basic steps to monitor the volume measurement systems and provide real time indication of measurement control. These methods can be used to indicate if a tank requires recalibration, if there is a sampling problem, or if there is an instrument problem. The methods include: sample density comparison, in-tank to laboratory density comparison, redundant instrument comparison and tank to tank transfer comparison. This paper describes these methods and the generation of control charts to track these comparisons in real time

Application of a pilot control banding tool for risk level assessment and control of nanoparticle exposures.

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Paik, Samuel Y; Zalk, David M; Swuste, Paul

2008-08-01

Control banding (CB) strategies offer simplified solutions for controlling worker exposures to constituents that are found in the workplace in the absence of firm toxicological and exposure data. These strategies may be particularly useful in nanotechnology applications, considering the overwhelming level of uncertainty over what nanomaterials and nanotechnologies present as potential work-related health risks, what about these materials might lead to adverse toxicological activity, how risk related to these might be assessed and how to manage these issues in the absence of this information. This study introduces a pilot CB tool or 'CB Nanotool' that was developed specifically for characterizing the health aspects of working with engineered nanoparticles and determining the level of risk and associated controls for five ongoing nanotechnology-related operations being conducted at two Department of Energy research laboratories. Based on the application of the CB Nanotool, four of the five operations evaluated in this study were found to have implemented controls consistent with what was recommended by the CB Nanotool, with one operation even exceeding the required controls for that activity. The one remaining operation was determined to require an upgrade in controls. By developing this dynamic CB Nanotool within the realm of the scientific information available, this application of CB appears to be a useful approach for assessing the risk of nanomaterial operations, providing recommendations for appropriate engineering controls and facilitating the allocation of resources to the activities that most need them.

Case control study of the geographic variability of exposure to disinfectant byproducts and risk for rectal cancer

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Rogerson Peter A

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Levels of byproducts that result from the disinfection of drinking water vary within a water distribution system. This prompted us to question whether the risk for rectal cancer also varies, depending upon one's long term geographic location within the system. Such a geographic distribution in rectal cancer risk would follow naturally from an association between level of byproduct and rectal cancer risk. We assess the effects of estimated geographic variability in exposure to some of the components of the trihalomethane group of disinfectant byproducts (DBPs on the odds ratios and probabilities for rectal cancer in white males in a case control study of 128 cases and 253 controls, conducted in Monroe County, Western New York State, U.S.A. The study was designed around health data initially collected at the University at Buffalo (Department of Social and Preventative Medicine as part of the Upstate New York Diet Study, and trihalomethane (THM data collected from a separate independent study of THMs conducted by Monroe County Department of Health. Case participants were chosen from hospital pathology records. The controls are disease-free white males between 35–90 years old, living in Monroe County, and chosen from control groups for studies from cancer of five other (unrelated sites. Using a combination of case control methodology and spatial analysis, the spatial patterns of THMs and individual measures of tap water consumption provide estimates of the effects of ingestion of specific amounts of some DBPs on rectal cancer risk. Trihalomethane (THM data were used to spatially interpolate levels at the taps of cases and controls, and odds ratios were estimated using logistic regression to assess the effects of estimated THM exposure dose on cancer risk, adjusting for alcohol, dietary beta carotene intake, tap water intake, and total caloric intake. Results Trihalomethane levels varied spatially within the county; although

Customers and Markets: Both are Essential to Credit-Risk Measurement

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David E. Allen

2011-03-01

Full Text Available This paper compares credit models that incorporate a market component to those that are solely customerbased. We found that customer-only models understated credit risk during the Global Financial Crisis (GFCand do not adequately differentiate between industries. Models that focus too heavily on the market canoverstate credit risk in times of high volatility. We recommend a two-factor modelling approach thatincorporates both customer and market risk to improve the accuracy of credit-risk measurement as well asassist lenders with early risk detection.

Learning from high risk industries may not be straightforward: a qualitative study of the hierarchy of risk controls approach in healthcare.

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Liberati, Elisa G; Peerally, Mohammad Farhad; Dixon-Woods, Mary

2018-02-01

Though healthcare is often exhorted to learn from 'high-reliability' industries, adopting tools and techniques from those sectors may not be straightforward. We sought to examine the hierarchies of risk controls approach, used in high-risk industries to rank interventions according to supposed effectiveness in reducing risk, and widely advocated as appropriate for healthcare. Classification of risk controls proposed by clinical teams following proactive detection of hazards in their clinical systems. Classification was based on a widely used hierarchy of controls developed by the US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). A range of clinical settings in four English NHS hospitals. The four clinical teams in our study planned a total of 42 risk controls aimed at addressing safety hazards. Most (n = 35) could be classed as administrative controls, thus qualifying among the weakest type of interventions according to the HoC approach. Six risk controls qualified as 'engineering' controls, i.e. the intermediate level of the hierarchy. Only risk control qualified as 'substitution', classified as the strongest type of intervention by the HoC. Many risk controls introduced by clinical teams may cluster towards the apparently weaker end of an established hierarchy of controls. Less clear is whether the HoC approach as currently formulated is useful for the specifics of healthcare. Valuable opportunities for safety improvement may be lost if inappropriate hierarchical models are used to guide the selection of patient safety improvement interventions. Though learning from other industries may be useful, caution is needed. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care.