WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk control measures

  1. A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

    2009-01-01

    Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan’s current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 × 10−8 (95th percentile: 3.20 × 10−7). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures. PMID:19822125

  2. Lung function and functional capacity among foundry workers using effective risk control measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardes, Rosane Andrea Bretas; Chiavegato, Luciana Dias; de Moraes, Mônica Vasconcelos; Negreiros, Alexandher; Padula, Rosimeire Simprini

    2015-01-01

    Inhaled dust in the environment can trigger specific reactions in the airways and cause various respiratory diseases. Evaluate the lung function and functional capacity of foundry workers who are exposed to metals and use effective control measures. A cross-sectional study was realized with 108 workers at a bronze foundry and machining plant and in maintenance at a private university, both in Brazil. The workers were divided into two groups: the study group exposed to metals but using risk control measues and a control group not exposed to metal work. The Medical Research Council Questionnaire on Respiratory Symptoms and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire were administered, and lung function and functional capacity were evaluated. Comparative statistics were used to identify differences in the outcome measures between the two groups. The groups had similar personal and anthropometric characteristics and time on the job. Spirometry and peak expiratory flow presented no significant differences between the groups. And there was also no statistically significant difference between groups in functional capacity as assessed by performance on the six-minute walk test. Foundry industry workers in Brazil who were exposed to metal but used risk control measures had similar lung function and functional capacity when compared to the control group who were not exposed to metal. This is a positive results and maybe related to age, time exposure and control of occupational hazards. However, these workers need to continue being monitored in longitudinal studies.

  3. Legionella species colonization in cooling towers: risk factors and assessment of control measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouchtouri, Varvara A; Goutziana, Georgia; Kremastinou, Jenny; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos

    2010-02-01

    Cooling towers can be colonized by Legionella spp, and inhalation of aerosols generated by their operation may cause Legionnaires' disease in susceptible hosts. Environmental investigations of Legionnaires' disease outbreaks linked with cooling towers have revealed poorly maintained systems, lack of control measures, and failure of system equipment. The purpose of this study was to identify Legionella-contaminated cooling towers, identify risk factors for contamination, and assess the effectiveness of control measures. A total of 96 cooling towers of public buildings were registered and inspected, and 130 samples were collected and microbiologically tested. Microbiological test results were associated with characteristics of cooling towers, water samples, inspection results, and maintenance practices. Of the total 96 cooling towers examined, 47 (48.9%) were colonized by Legionella spp, and 22 (22.9%) required remedial action. A total of 65 samples (50.0%) were positive (> or = 500 cfu L(-1)), and 30 (23%) were heavily contaminated (> or = 10(4) cfu L(-1)). Of the 69 isolates identified, 55 strains (79.7.%) were L pneumophila. Legionella colonization was positively associated with the absence of training on Legionella control (relative risk [RR] = 1.66; P = .02), absence of regular Legionella testing (RR = 2.07: P = .002), absence of sunlight protection (RR = 1.63: P = .02), with samples in which the free residual chlorine level in the water sample was cooling towers (median, 17 years; interquartile range [IQR] =5.0 to 26.0 years) compared with noncolonized cooling towers (median age, 6 years; IQR =1.0 to 13.5 years). After the 22 legionellae-positive cooling towers were disinfected with chlorine, 2 (9%) of them remained positive for Legionella spp with a concentration > or = 1000 cfu L(-1). Cooling towers can be heavily colonized by Legionella spp and thus present a potential risk for infection. This study demonstrates the importance of a risk assessment and

  4. A quality control circle process to improve implementation effect of prevention measures for high-risk patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Haixia; Li, Guohong; Xu, Cuirong; Ju, Changping; Suo, Peiheng

    2017-12-01

    The aim of the study was to analyse the influence of prevention measures on pressure injuries for high-risk patients and to establish the most appropriate methods of implementation. Nurses assessed patients using a checklist and factors influencing the prevention of a pressure injury determined by brain storming. A specific series of measures was drawn up and an estimate of risk of pressure injury determined using the Braden Scale, analysis of nursing documents, implementation of prevention measures for pressure sores and awareness of the system both before and after carrying out a quality control circle (QCC) process. The overall scores of implementation of prevention measures ranged from 74.86 ± 14.24 to 87.06 ± 17.04, a result that was statistically significant (P prevention measure scores ranged from 11.48 ± 4.18 to 13.96 ± 3.92. Differences in all of the above results are statistically significant (P prevention measures for patients who are vulnerable to pressure sores and is of practical importance to their prevention and control. © 2017 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Risk control in the laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermeeren, H.P.W.; Zwaard, A.W.

    1986-01-01

    This volume contains the knowledge which is needed for safely working in a laboratory. With the help of the contents it is possible to come, after an evaluation of the risks, to practical measures (risk control). Not only exposure to chemicals but also to other burdening factors (radiation, sound, radioactive materials, micro-organisms) are discussed. A general strategy for risk control forms the central point in this book. 51 refs.; 67 figs.; 29 tabs

  6. Risk Informed Approach for Nuclear Security Measures for Nuclear and Other Radioactive Material out of Regulatory Control. Implementing Guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This publication provides guidance to States for developing a risk informed approach and for conducting threat and risk assessments as the basis for the design and implementation of sustainable nuclear security systems and measures for prevention of, detection of, and response to criminal and intentional unauthorised acts involving nuclear and other radioactive material out of regulatory control. It describes concepts and methodologies for a risk informed approach, including identification and assessment of threats, targets, and potential consequences; threat and risk assessment methodologies, and the use of risk informed approaches as the basis for informing the development and implementation of nuclear security systems and measures. The publication is an Implementing Guide within the IAEA Nuclear Security Series and is intended for use by national policy makers, law enforcement agencies and experts from competent authorities and other relevant organizations involved in the establishment, implementation, maintenance or sustainability of nuclear security systems and measures related to nuclear and other radioactive material out of regulatory control

  7. Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, Brandon Road Lock and Dam Invasive Species Control Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Decision makers must include control-measure monitoring and emergency “interventions” to insure safety. The Coast Guard operational commanders...system” incorporates a travelling car on a rail above the barge-loading wharf to prevent loading personnel, cargo surveyors, or others from falling...to the Gulf of Mexico . As “Loopers”, they will have already transited the CSSC electric barriers. Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, BRLD

  8. The comparison of various approach to evaluation erosion risks and design control erosion measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapicka, Jiri

    2015-04-01

    In the present is in the Czech Republic one methodology how to compute and compare erosion risks. This methodology contain also method to design erosion control measures. The base of this methodology is Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and their result long-term average annual rate of erosion (G). This methodology is used for landscape planners. Data and statistics from database of erosion events in the Czech Republic shows that many troubles and damages are from local episodes of erosion events. An extent of these events and theirs impact are conditional to local precipitation events, current plant phase and soil conditions. These erosion events can do troubles and damages on agriculture land, municipally property and hydro components and even in a location is from point of view long-term average annual rate of erosion in good conditions. Other way how to compute and compare erosion risks is episodes approach. In this paper is presented the compare of various approach to compute erosion risks. The comparison was computed to locality from database of erosion events on agricultural land in the Czech Republic where have been records two erosion events. The study area is a simple agriculture land without any barriers that can have high influence to water flow and soil sediment transport. The computation of erosion risks (for all methodology) was based on laboratory analysis of soil samples which was sampled on study area. Results of the methodology USLE, MUSLE and results from mathematical model Erosion 3D have been compared. Variances of the results in space distribution of the places with highest soil erosion where compared and discussed. Other part presents variances of design control erosion measures where their design was done on based different methodology. The results shows variance of computed erosion risks which was done by different methodology. These variances can start discussion about different approach how compute and evaluate erosion risks in areas

  9. Risk Control of Offshore Installations. A Framework for the Establishment of Risk Indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oeien, Knut

    2001-07-01

    Currently quantitative risk assessments are carried out to analyze the risk level of offshore installations and to evaluate whether or not the risk level is acceptable. By way of the quantitative risk analysis the risk status of a given installation is obtained. However, the risk status is obtained so infrequently that it is inadequate for risk control. It can be compared to economic control having the economic status presented about each fifth year, which is obviously inadequate. It is important to know the risk status because this may provide an early warning about the need for remedial actions. Without frequent information about the risk status, control of risk cannot be claimed. The main objective of this thesis has been the development of a framework for the establishment of risk indicators. These risk indicators provide a status of the risk level through measuring of changes in technical, operational and organizational factors important to risk, and is thus a means to control risk during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The framework consists of a technical methodology using the quantitative risk assessment as a basis, an organizational model, and an organizational quantification methodology. Technical risk indicators are established from the technical methodology covering the risk factors explicitly included in the quantitative risk assessment. Organizational risk indicators measure changes in the organizational risk factors included in the organizational model, but not included in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational model is an extension to the risk model in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational quantification methodology calculates the effect of the changes measured by the organizational risk indicators. The organizational model may also be applied as a qualitative tool for root cause analysis of incidents (process leaks). Other results are an intermediate-level expert judgment procedure applicable for

  10. Effectiveness of environmental control measures to decrease the risk of invasive aspergillosis in acute leukaemia patients during hospital building work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Combariza, J F; Toro, L F; Orozco, J J

    2017-08-01

    Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is a significant problem in acute leukaemia patients. Construction work near hospital wards caring for immunocompromised patients is one of the main risk factors for developing invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA). To assess the impact of environmental control measures used during hospital construction for the prevention of IA in acute leukaemia patients. A retrospective cohort study was developed to evaluate the IA incidence in acute leukaemia patients with different environmental control measures employed during hospital construction. We used European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) criterial diagnosis parameters for definition of IA. A total of 175 episodes of inpatient care were evaluated, 62 of which did not have any environmental control measures (when an outbreak occurred), and 113 that were subject to environmental control measures directed to preventing IA. The study showed an IA incidence of 25.8% for the group without environmental control measures vs 12.4% for those who did receive environmental control measures (P=0.024). The relative risk for IA was 0.595 (95% confidence interval: 0.394-0.897) for the group with environmental control measures. The current study suggests that the implementation of environmental control measures during a hospital construction has a positive impact for prevention of IA in patients hospitalized with acute leukaemia. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Simple anthropometric measures correlate with metabolic risk indicators as strongly as magnetic resonance imaging-measured adipose tissue depots in both HIV-infected and control subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherzer, Rebecca; Shen, Wei; Bacchetti, Peter; Kotler, Donald; Lewis, Cora E; Shlipak, Michael G; Heymsfield, Steven B; Grunfeld, Carl

    2008-06-01

    Studies in persons without HIV infection have compared percentage body fat (%BF) and waist circumference as markers of risk for the complications of excess adiposity, but only limited study has been conducted in HIV-infected subjects. We compared anthropometric and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based adiposity measures as correlates of metabolic complications of adiposity in HIV-infected and control subjects. The study was a cross-sectional analysis of 666 HIV-positive and 242 control subjects in the Fat Redistribution and Metabolic Change in HIV Infection (FRAM) study assessing body mass index (BMI), waist (WC) and hip (HC) circumferences, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), %BF, and MRI-measured regional adipose tissue. Study outcomes were 3 metabolic risk variables [homeostatic model assessment (HOMA), triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol]. Analyses were stratified by sex and HIV status and adjusted for demographic, lifestyle, and HIV-related factors. In HIV-infected and control subjects, univariate associations with HOMA, triglycerides, and HDL were strongest for WC, MRI-measured visceral adipose tissue, and WHR; in all cases, differences in correlation between the strongest measures for each outcome were small (r HDL, WC appeared to be the best anthropometric correlate of metabolic complications, whereas, for triglycerides, the best was WHR. Relations of simple anthropometric measures with HOMA, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol are approximately as strong as MRI-measured whole-body adipose tissue depots in both HIV-infected and control subjects.

  12. Investigation of the Effect of Control Measures on Reduction of Risk Events in an Edible Oil Factory in Tehran, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malihe Kolahdouzi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study: Identification of hazards is one of the first goals of risk analysis. Failure mode and effect analysis method (FMEA is universally defined as efficient procedures for finding potential failures aimed to remove or decrease the risk which is related to them. This study aimed to investigate the effect of control measures on reduction of risk events in an edible oil factory in Tehran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in an edible oil factory in Tehran, Iran. For this, a four-member team of safety engineer experts was formed. Some factory units were selected randomly. After that, in all units, probability, severity and detection probability of hazards in all processes and tasks were assessed based on FMEA method. Regarding to the RPN, some control measures were taken to reduce the risk of events. After 9 months, risk assessment was repeated; primary and secondary RPNs were compared with each other to investigate the effect of interventions. Results: The results showed that highest and lowest probability of hazard were related to installation and can production unit, respectively. The highest and lowest severity of hazard were related to tool and can production unit, respectively. There was a significant difference between the probability of hazard in can-making and filling units, before and after the interventions. There was a significant difference between the severity of hazard in can-making, filling and neutralization units, before and after the interventions. As well, total probability, severity and RPN had a significant difference in all parts of the factory before and after the interventions. Conclusions: According to the results of this study and the overall risk reduction caused by interventional measures, it can be concluded that, FMEA is a successful method for identifying hazards and risk control measures.

  13. Predictive value of ovarian stroma measurement for cardiovascular risk in polycyctic ovary syndrome: a case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loverro Giuseppe

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To verify the feasibility of ovarian stromal evaluation and correlate ovarian parameteres (echogenicity and volume with hyperandrogenism, and both cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors in PCOS. Methods Twenty four young PCOS patients and twelve age-matched control women were enrolled. Diagnosis of PCOS was based on the Rotterdam criteria. Ultrasound ovarian study included ovarian volume, stromal volume, stromal area and stromal area/total ovarian area ratio (S/A. Concerning hormones, insulin, LH, FSH, estradiol, androstenedione, testosterone, DHEAS, 17-hydroxy-progesterone, and SHBG were measured during the early follicular phase (days 2-5. Cardiovascular risk factors were represented by fasting plasma levels of glucose, lipids (total and HDL-cholesterol, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1, von-Willebrand factor (vWF, and adiponectin. Carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT was measured as a parameter of cardiovascular risk. Results A positive correlation between the S/A ratio and plasma levels of testosterone (p Conclusions This study shows that the ultrasound measurement of ovarian stroma is a predicting factor of hyperandrogenism degree, prothrombotic factors and cardiovascular risk in patients with PCOS.

  14. Metrology and process control: dealing with measurement uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potzick, James

    2010-03-01

    Metrology is often used in designing and controlling manufacturing processes. A product sample is processed, some relevant property is measured, and the process adjusted to bring the next processed sample closer to its specification. This feedback loop can be remarkably effective for the complex processes used in semiconductor manufacturing, but there is some risk involved because measurements have uncertainty and product specifications have tolerances. There is finite risk that good product will fail testing or that faulty product will pass. Standard methods for quantifying measurement uncertainty have been presented, but the question arises: how much measurement uncertainty is tolerable in a specific case? Or, How does measurement uncertainty relate to manufacturing risk? This paper looks at some of the components inside this process control feedback loop and describes methods to answer these questions.

  15. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

  16. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    1975-10-01

    'Risk of damage' and 'exposure risk' are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the 'exposure risk' on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Basing upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high 'exposure risk'. As a consequence the following recommendations are given for discussion: (a) occupationally exposed persons with small 'exposure risk' should be monitored using only a long-term dosimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence dosimeter), (b) in the case of internal exposure the surface and, if necessary, air contamination should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed. (author)

  17. Risk control and the minimum significant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented

  18. VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

  19. The risks of measuring risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, G.G.

    1982-01-01

    The author gives an overview of the Thirteenth Rochester International Conference on Environmental Toxicity, which examined both the logical soundness of the inference of risk and the validity of the environmental evidence of damage. Examples are itemized, concise introductions are given for each published paper in the proceedings, and an appropriate keynote is given by way of stating the established and alternate approach to risk measurement. The volume is described as ''more than a review of advance in measurement of risks to health . . . (but also) a landmark of a change in scientific opinion.''

  20. Simple anthropometric measures correlate with metabolic risk indicators as strongly as magnetic resonance imaging–measured adipose tissue depots in both HIV-infected and control subjects2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherzer, Rebecca; Shen, Wei; Bacchetti, Peter; Kotler, Donald; Lewis, Cora E; Shlipak, Michael G; Heymsfield, Steven B

    2008-01-01

    Background Studies in persons without HIV infection have compared percentage body fat (%BF) and waist circumference as markers of risk for the complications of excess adiposity, but only limited study has been conducted in HIV-infected subjects. Objective We compared anthropometric and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)–based adiposity measures as correlates of metabolic complications of adiposity in HIV-infected and control subjects. Design The study was a cross-sectional analysis of 666 HIV-positive and 242 control subjects in the Fat Redistribution and Metabolic Change in HIV Infection (FRAM) study assessing body mass index (BMI), waist (WC) and hip (HC) circumferences, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), %BF, and MRI-measured regional adipose tissue. Study outcomes were 3 metabolic risk variables [homeostatic model assessment (HOMA), triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol]. Analyses were stratified by sex and HIV status and adjusted for demographic, lifestyle, and HIV-related factors. Results In HIV-infected and control subjects, univariate associations with HOMA, triglycerides, and HDL were strongest for WC, MRI-measured visceral adipose tissue, and WHR; in all cases, differences in correlation between the strongest measures for each outcome were small (r ≤ 0.07). Multivariate adjustment found no significant difference for optimally fitting models between the use of anthropometric and MRI measures, and the magnitudes of differences were small (adjusted R2 ≤ 0.06). For HOMA and HDL, WC appeared to be the best anthropometric correlate of metabolic complications, whereas, for triglycerides, the best was WHR. Conclusion Relations of simple anthropometric measures with HOMA, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol are approximately as strong as MRI-measured whole-body adipose tissue depots in both HIV-infected and control subjects. PMID:18541572

  1. Issues raised in the limitation, control and measurement of radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, J.A.

    1989-01-01

    Over the past few years a consistent set of quantities for ionising radiation measurements in radiological protection have been defined. The efforts being made by those concerned with radiation dosimetry to ensure the universal adoption and use of these quantities are now threatened by further developments in risk concepts. The most serious threats arise from changed perceptions about the quality factors appropriate for different radiations due to improved biological information about relative biological effectiveness, and the increased importance to be given to the cancer risk estimates derived from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors following the revised dose estimates. A change in the basis of quality factor specification will require careful consideration if it is not to produce further problems in obtaining agreement on the conceptual basis for radiological protection metrology. The change is primarily for adoption in the calculation of the risk quantity, effective dose equivalent. Some of the possible options for taking account of the change in regard to the measurement quantities are examined. (author)

  2. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  3. A Framework for Collateral Risk Control Determination

    OpenAIRE

    Didier Cossin; Zhijiang Huang; Daniel Aunon-Nerin; Fer nando González

    2002-01-01

    This paper derives a general framework for collateral risk control determination in repurchase transactions or repos. The objective is to treat consistently heterogeneous collateral so that the collateral taker has a similar risk exposure whatever the collateral pledged. The framework measures the level of risk with the probability of incurring a loss higher than a pre-specified level given two well-known parameters used to manage the intrinsic risk of collateral: marking to market and haircu...

  4. Lifestyle Advice Combined with Personalized Estimates of Genetic or Phenotypic Risk of Type 2 Diabetes, and Objectively Measured Physical Activity: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Job G Godino

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Information about genetic and phenotypic risk of type 2 diabetes is now widely available and is being incorporated into disease prevention programs. Whether such information motivates behavior change or has adverse effects is uncertain. We examined the effect of communicating an estimate of genetic or phenotypic risk of type 2 diabetes in a parallel group, open, randomized controlled trial.We recruited 569 healthy middle-aged adults from the Fenland Study, an ongoing population-based, observational study in the east of England (Cambridgeshire, UK. We used a computer-generated random list to assign participants in blocks of six to receive either standard lifestyle advice alone (control group, n = 190 or in combination with a genetic (n = 189 or a phenotypic (n = 190 risk estimate for type 2 diabetes (intervention groups. After 8 wk, we measured the primary outcome, objectively measured physical activity (kJ/kg/day, and also measured several secondary outcomes (including self-reported diet, self-reported weight, worry, anxiety, and perceived risk. The study was powered to detect a between-group difference of 4.1 kJ/kg/d at follow-up. 557 (98% participants completed the trial. There were no significant intervention effects on physical activity (difference in adjusted mean change from baseline: genetic risk group versus control group 0.85 kJ/kg/d (95% CI -2.07 to 3.77, p = 0.57; phenotypic risk group versus control group 1.32 (95% CI -1.61 to 4.25, p = 0.38; and genetic risk group versus phenotypic risk group -0.47 (95% CI -3.40 to 2.46, p = 0.75. No significant differences in self-reported diet, self-reported weight, worry, and anxiety were observed between trial groups. Estimates of perceived risk were significantly more accurate among those who received risk information than among those who did not. Key limitations include the recruitment of a sample that may not be representative of the UK population, use of self-reported secondary outcome

  5. Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunesen, Eva Rytter

    This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk...... for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian...... and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...

  6. Comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Decision making for water resource planning is often related to social, economic and environmental factors. There are various methods for making decisions about water resource planning alternatives and measures with various shortcomings. A comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability risk analysis ...

  7. Multiple shooting applied to robust reservoir control optimization including output constraints on coherent risk measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Codas, Andrés; Hanssen, Kristian G.; Foss, Bjarne

    2017-01-01

    The production life of oil reservoirs starts under significant uncertainty regarding the actual economical return of the recovery process due to the lack of oil field data. Consequently, investors and operators make management decisions based on a limited and uncertain description of the reservoir....... In this work, we propose a new formulation for robust optimization of reservoir well controls. It is inspired by the multiple shooting (MS) method which permits a broad range of parallelization opportunities and output constraint handling. This formulation exploits coherent risk measures, a concept...

  8. Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaurio, Jussi K., E-mail: jussi.vaurio@pp1.inet.fi [Prometh Solutions, Hiihtaejaenkuja 3K, 06100 Porvoo (Finland)

    2011-11-15

    This paper describes roles, extensions and applications of importance measures of components and configurations for making risk-informed decisions relevant to system operations, maintenance and safety. Basic importance measures and their relationships are described for independent and mutually exclusive events and for groups of events associated with common cause failures. The roles of importances are described mainly in two groups of activities: (a) ranking safety significance of systems, structures, components and human actions for preventive safety assurance activities, and (b) making decisions about permissible permanent and temporary configurations and allowed configuration times for regulation, technical specifications and for on-line risk monitoring. Criticality importance and sums of criticalities turn out to be appropriate measures for ranking and optimization. Several advantages are pointed out and consistent ranking of pipe segments for in-service inspection is provided as an example. Risk increase factor and its generalization risk gain are most appropriately used to assess corrective priorities and acceptability of a situation when components are already failed or when planning to take one or more components out of service for maintenance. Precise definitions are introduced for multi-failure configurations and it is shown how they can be assessed under uncertainties, in particular when common cause failures or success states may be involved. A general weighted average method is compared to other candidate methods in benchmark cases. It is the preferable method for prediction when a momentary configuration is known or only partially known. Potential applications and optimization of allowed outage times are described. The results show how to generalize and apply various importance measures to ranking and optimization and how to manage configurations in uncertain multi-failure situations. - Highlights: > Rigorous methods developed for using importances

  9. Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, Jussi K.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes roles, extensions and applications of importance measures of components and configurations for making risk-informed decisions relevant to system operations, maintenance and safety. Basic importance measures and their relationships are described for independent and mutually exclusive events and for groups of events associated with common cause failures. The roles of importances are described mainly in two groups of activities: (a) ranking safety significance of systems, structures, components and human actions for preventive safety assurance activities, and (b) making decisions about permissible permanent and temporary configurations and allowed configuration times for regulation, technical specifications and for on-line risk monitoring. Criticality importance and sums of criticalities turn out to be appropriate measures for ranking and optimization. Several advantages are pointed out and consistent ranking of pipe segments for in-service inspection is provided as an example. Risk increase factor and its generalization risk gain are most appropriately used to assess corrective priorities and acceptability of a situation when components are already failed or when planning to take one or more components out of service for maintenance. Precise definitions are introduced for multi-failure configurations and it is shown how they can be assessed under uncertainties, in particular when common cause failures or success states may be involved. A general weighted average method is compared to other candidate methods in benchmark cases. It is the preferable method for prediction when a momentary configuration is known or only partially known. Potential applications and optimization of allowed outage times are described. The results show how to generalize and apply various importance measures to ranking and optimization and how to manage configurations in uncertain multi-failure situations. - Highlights: → Rigorous methods developed for using importances

  10. Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC Accidents at Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Asmalia Che

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Power plant had a reputation of being one of the most hazardous workplace environments. Workers in the power plant face many safety risks due to the nature of the job. Although power plants are safer nowadays since the industry has urged the employer to improve their employees’ safety, the employees still stumble upon many hazards thus accidents at workplace. The aim of the present study is to investigate work related accidents at power plants based on HIRARC (Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control process. The data were collected at two coal-fired power plant located in Malaysia. The finding of the study identified hazards and assess risk relate to accidents occurred at the power plants. The finding of the study suggested the possible control measures and corrective actions to reduce or eliminate the risk that can be used by power plant in preventing accidents from occurred

  11. Uses of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankamo, T.; Poern, K.; Holmberg, J.

    1991-05-01

    Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort

  12. Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frohwein, H.I.; Lambert, J.H.; Haimes, Y.Y.

    1999-01-01

    A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

  13. Implementation of new legislative measures on industrial risks prevention and control in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cahen, Bruno

    2006-01-01

    Incompatible at first sight, but vital to each other, the industry and the city have been developing a complex relationship for decades. From 1810 on in France, risk prevention and control in and around major industrial sites evolves step-by-step, learning from accidents. Land-use planning in the vicinity of SEVESO establishments becomes one of the key policies in the prevention of major industrial accident hazard on European level in 1996, focussing on historical situation of concern [M.D. Christou, S. Porter, Guidance on Land-use Planning as required by the Council Directive 96/82/EC. Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 1999]. The Toulouse (F) accidents, on 21 September 2001 evidenced the need for new tools to reinforce protective action and ease the situation of clusters of factories engulfed in the urban setting. In France, new legislative measures adopted on 30 July 2003 deeply modified the approach to land-use planning around the main dangerous facilities (622 establishments). The implementation of technological risk prevention plans [Fr. 'PPRT'] will limit the exposition of the population to the consequences of accidents. These plans, derived from the risk assessment (safety reports) produced by the operators of the hazardous facilities, will delineate areas within which requirements can be imposed on existing and future buildings and within which future building rights may be restricted. On the grounds of extremely serious danger that threatens human life, pre-existing constructions may be progressively expropriated. The financing of the corresponding measures, estimated a rough -bar 2-4 billions, will be defined by agreements among the Central Government, the industrial company and the local and regional bodies

  14. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

  15. Risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

  16. Internal controls and credit risk relationship among banks in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The study purport to investigate the effectiveness of internal control mechanisms, investigate whether evidence of agency problem is found among banks in Europe and determine how internal controls affect credit risk. Design/methodology/approach: Panel data from 91 banks from 23 European Union countries were studied from 2008-2014. Hausman’s specification test suggest the use of fixed effects estimation technique of GLS. Quantitatively modelled data on 15 variables covering elements of internal controls, objectives of internal controls, agency problem, bank and country specific variables were used. Findings: There is still high credit risk in spite of measures being implemented by the European Central Bank. Banks have individual entity factors that increase or decrease credit risk. The study finds effective internal control systems because objectives of internal controls are achieved and significantly determine credit risk. Agency problem is confirmed due to significant positive relation with credit risk. There is significant effect of internal controls on credit risk with specific variables as risk assessment, return on average risk weighted assets, institutional ownership, bank size, inflation, interest rate and GDP. Research limitations/implications: Missing data prevented the use of strongly balanced panel. The lack of flexibility with using quantitative approach did not allow further scrutiny of the nature of variables. However, statistical tests were acceptable for the model used. The study has implications for management and owners of banks to be warry of agency problem because that provides incentive for reckless high risk transactions that may benefit the agent than the principal. Management must engage in actions that profile the company better and enhances value maximization. Rising default risk has tendency to impair corporate image leading to loss of reputational capital. Originality/value: The study provides the use of

  17. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  18. Risk management in customs control

    OpenAIRE

    Drobot, Elena; Klevleeva, Aziza

    2016-01-01

    The particularities of risk-management system implementation within customs control are discussed in the article. The authors single out the elements of risk-management system, evaluate effectiveness of risk-management in customs control. The main reasons for non-implementation of risk-management system in customs control are described, as well. Particular attention is paid to the benefits of customs risk management.

  19. RISK MANAGEMENT IN CUSTOMS CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Valerievna Drobot

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Customs administrations operating in the modern global economy are faced with a complex range of challenges. The prime responsibilities remain the collection of revenues and the protection of the society, but these demanding tasks must be performed effectively and efficiently, whilst at the same time facilitating the flow of legitimate goods. Risk management is a logical and systematic method of identifying, analyzing and managing risks. Risk management can be associated with any activity, function or process within the organization and will enable the organization to take advantage of opportunities and minimize potential losses. Minimization of the human factor in customs control through the implementation of non-intrusive inspection equipment can be very useful. The particularities of risk-management system (RMS implementation within customs control are discussed in the article. The authors single out the elements of the risk-management system, evaluate the effectiveness of risk-management in customs control. The main reasons for non-implementation of the risk-management system in customs control are described as well. The particular attention is paid to the benefits of customs risk management. The authors’ hypothesis is that risk management in customs control must find a balance between costs and benefits to address all risks equally. Criteria are needed to decide what constitutes an acceptable or unacceptable risk. Thus, system analysis and risk management system are the effective mechanisms for acceleration of customs clearance and improve the quality of customs control. As a conclusion, the authors give recommendations for the improvement of the effectiveness of risk management system in customs control.

  20. Safety control and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, J.

    1987-01-01

    The acceptable probability of major accidents in nuclear power is very small, and can not be determined from direct empirical evidence. Therefore, control of the level of safety is a complex problem. The difficulty is related to the fact that a variable, 'safety', which is not accessible to direct measurement, is to be tightly controlled. Control, therefore, depends on a systematic, analytical prediction of the target state, i.e., the level of safety, from indirect evidence. From a control theoretic point of view this means that safety is controlled by a system which includes openloop as well as closed loop control paths. The aim of the paper is to take a general systems view on the complex mechanisms involved in the control of safety of industrial installations like nuclear power. From this, the role of probabilistic risk analysis is evaluated and needs for further development discussed. (author)

  1. [Safety evaluation and risk control measures of Cassiae Semen].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yi-Meng; Wu, Li; Zhang, Shuo; Zhang, Li; Gao, Xue-Min; Sun, Xiao-Bo; Wang, Chun

    2017-11-01

    In this study, the authors reviewed domestic and foreign literatures, conducted the textual research on origin and development of Cassia Semen, studied records in ancient books and ancient and modern literatures, clinical adverse reactions and relevant experimental studies in recent years, and summarized the clinical features and influencing factors related to the safety of Cassiae Semen. According to the findings,Cassia Semen's safety risks are mainly liver and kidney system damages, with the main clinical features of fatigue, anorexia, disgusting of oil, yellow urine and gray stool; digestive system injury, with the main clinical features of diarrhea, abdominal distension, nausea and loose stool; reproductive system damage, with the main clinical features of vaginal bleeding. Allergic reactions and clinical adverse events, with the main clinical features for numb mouth, itching skin, nausea and vomiting, diarrhea, wheezing and lip cyanosis were also reported. The toxicological studies on toxic components of Cassiae Semen obtusifolia were carried out through acute toxicity test, subacute toxicity test, subchronic toxicity test and chronic toxicity test. Risk factors might include patients, compatibility and physicians. Physicians should strictly abide by the medication requirements in the Pharmacopoeia, pay attention to rational compatibility, appropriate dosage,correct usage and appropriate processing, control the dosage below 15 g to avoid excessive intake, strictly control the course of treatment to avoid accumulated poisoning caused by long-term administration. At the same time, clinicians should pay attention to the latest research progress, update the knowledge structure, quickly find the latest and useful materials from clinical practice, scientific research and drug information and other literatures, make evaluation and judgment for the materials, establish a traditional Chinese medicine intelligence information library, and strengthen the control over

  2. Case-control study of anthropometric measures and testicular cancer risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio eGiannandrea

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The etiology of testicular germ cell tumors (TGCTs is poorly understood. Recent epidemiological findings suggest that TGCT risk is determined very early in life, although the available data are still conflicting. The rapid growth of the testes during puberty may be another period of vulnerability. Body size has received increasing attention as possible risk factor for TC. To clarify the relation of body size and its anthropometric variables to TGCT risk, the authors analyzed data from 272 cases and 382 controls with regard to height (cm, weight (Kg and body mass index (BMI; kg/m2. Overall, participants in the highest quartile of height were more likely to be diagnosed with TGCTs than participants in the lowest quartile of height, OR 2.22 (95% confidence intervals (CI: 1.25-3.93; adjusted; ptrend = 0.033. Moreover, histological seminoma subgroup was significantly associated with tallness, very tall men (>182 cm having a seminoma TGCT risk of OR=2.44 (95% confidence intervals (CI: 1.19-4.97; adjusted; ptrend = 0.011. There was also a significant inverse association of TGCT with increasing BMI (ptrend = 0.001; age-adjusted analysis and this association was equally present in both histological subgroups. These preliminary results indicate that testicular cancer is inversely associated with BMI and positively associated with height, in particular with seminoma subtype. Several studies have reported similar findings on body size. As adult height is largely determined by high-calorie intake in childhood and influenced by hormonal factors at puberty, increased attention to postnatal exposures in this interval may help elucidate the etiology of TGCTs.

  3. Liver stiffness measured by magnetic resonance elastography as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma: a preliminary case-control study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Motosugi, Utaroh; Ichikawa, Tomoaki; Koshiishi, Tsuyota; Sano, Katsuhiro; Morisaka, Hiroyuki; Ichikawa, Shintaro; Araki, Tsutomu [University of Yamanashi, Department of Radiology, Yamanashi-ken (Japan); Enomoto, Nobuyuki [University of Yamanashi, 1st Department of Internal Medicine, Yamanashi (Japan); Matsuda, Masanori; Fujii, Hideki [University of Yamanashi, 1st Department of Surgery, Yamanashi (Japan)

    2013-01-15

    To examine if liver stiffness measured by magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic liver disease. By reviewing the records of magnetic resonance (MR) examinations performed at our institution, we selected 301 patients with chronic liver disease who did not have a previous medical history of HCC. All patients underwent MRE and gadoxetic acid-enhanced MR imaging. HCC was identified on MR images in 66 of the 301 patients, who were matched to controls from the remaining patients without HCC according to age. MRE images were obtained by visualising elastic waves generated in the liver by pneumatic vibration transferred via a cylindrical passive driver. Risk factors of HCC development were determined by the odds ratio with logistic regression analysis; gender and liver stiffness by MRE and serum levels of aspartate transferase, alanine transferase, alpha-fetoprotein, and protein induced by vitamin K absence-II. Multivariate analysis revealed that only liver stiffness by MRE was a significant risk factor for HCC with an odds ratio (95 % confidence interval) of 1.38 (1.05-1.84). Liver stiffness measured by MRE is an independent risk factor for HCC in patients with chronic liver disease. (orig.)

  4. Risk measurement with equivalent utility principles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Denuit, M.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.

    2006-01-01

    Risk measures have been studied for several decades in the actuarial literature, where they appeared under the guise of premium calculation principles. Risk measures and properties that risk measures should satisfy have recently received considerable attention in the financial mathematics

  5. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  6. Modelling the ability of source control measures to reduce inundation risk in a community-scale urban drainage system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Chao; Liu, Jiahong; Wang, Hao; Shao, Weiwei; Xia, Lin; Xiang, Chenyao; Zhou, Jinjun

    2018-06-01

    Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers, in the context of rapid urbanization and climate change worldwide. In recent years, source control measures (SCMs) such as green roofs, permeable pavements, rain gardens, and vegetative swales have been implemented to address flood inundation in urban settings, and proven to be cost-effective and sustainable. In order to investigate the ability of SCMs on reducing inundation in a community-scale urban drainage system, a dynamic rainfall-runoff model of a community-scale urban drainage system was developed based on SWMM. SCMs implementing scenarios were modelled under six design rainstorm events with return period ranging from 2 to 100 years, and inundation risks of the drainage system were evaluated before and after the proposed implementation of SCMs, with a risk-evaluation method based on SWMM and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Results show that, SCMs implementation resulting in significantly reduction of hydrological indexes that related to inundation risks, range of reduction rates of average flow, peak flow, and total flooded volume of the drainage system were 28.1-72.1, 19.0-69.2, and 33.9-56.0 %, respectively, under six rainfall events with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years. Corresponding, the inundation risks of the drainage system were significantly reduced after SCMs implementation, the risk values falling below 0.2 when the rainfall return period was less than 10 years. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of SCMs on mitigating inundation, and quantified the potential of SCMs on reducing inundation risks in the urban drainage system, which provided scientific references for implementing SCMs for inundation control of the study area.

  7. CEA - Risk control report 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verwaerde, Daniel; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introductory presentations by CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: environment protection and control, facilities safety, health and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, sites protection, installations and assets, emergency response, legal risk management, internal inspections and audits. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk control sector, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  8. Application of Risk Management for Control and Monitoring Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Grau, S; Balda, F; Chouvelon, A

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents an application of the state of the art and new trends for risk management of safety-related control and monitoring systems, currently applied in the industry. These techniques not only enable to manage safety and reliability issues but they also help in the control of quality and economic factors affected by the availability and maintenance of the system. The method includes an unambiguous definition of the system in terms of functions and a systematic analysis of hazardous situations, undesired events and possible malfunctions. It also includes the identification and quantification of the risk associated to the system. The required risk reduction is specified in terms of safety integrity levels. The safety integrity level results in requirements, preventive measures, possible improvements and recommendations to assure the satisfactory management of the risk.

  9. Study on the evaluation system for the coal safety management based on risk pre-control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xin-chun; XU Hai-xia; WANG Pei; SONG Xue-feng

    2009-01-01

    The new type of risk management is process management.First,the hazard sources are identified before coal mine accidents occur,and then the pre-control measure and information monitoring method based on classifying the hidden hazard sources are given.Lastly,the risk pre-alarm and risk control method are confirmed,the management standard and management measure are used to eliminate the hidden hazard sources.In this study,an evaluation system is built to evaluate the result of risk management.

  10. Measuring Producers' Risk Preferences: A Global Risk Attitude Construct

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2001-01-01

    In applied agricultural economic research various risk-attitude elicitation techniques are used. Here, we investigate whether risk-attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to measures rooted in the multi-item scale framework. Using a second-order factor analytical

  11. Objectively Measured Sedentary Time and Cardiovascular Risk Factor Control in US Hispanics/Latinos With Diabetes Mellitus: Results From the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xueyin; Strizich, Garrett; Hua, Simin; Sotres-Alvarez, Daniela; Buelna, Christina; Gallo, Linda C; Gellman, Marc D; Mossavar-Rahmani, Yasmin; O'Brien, Matthew J; Stoutenberg, Mark; Wang, Tao; Avilés-Santa, M Larissa; Kaplan, Robert C; Qi, Qibin

    2017-05-25

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor control is a cornerstone of diabetes mellitus management. Little is known about relationships of objectively measured sedentary time and physical activity with major CVD risk factor control in individuals with diabetes mellitus. We examined associations of objectively measured sedentary time and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity with reaching major CVD risk factor control goals among US Hispanic/Latino adults with diabetes mellitus. This cross-sectional analysis included 1699 participants with diabetes mellitus from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (2008-2011). Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of meeting the following 5 major CVD risk factor control goals: hemoglobin A 1c 40/50 mg/dL for men/women. After adjustment for covariates including moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, less sedentary time was associated with increased odds of reaching hemoglobin A 1c (OR=1.76 [95% CI: 1.10, 2.82]) and triglyceride control goals (OR=2.16 [1.36, 3.46]), and reaching ≥3 CVD risk factor control goals (OR=2.08 [1.34, 3.23]) (all ORs for comparisons of extreme tertiles of sedentary time). Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity was not associated with reaching any CVD risk factor control goals. Substituting 60-min/day of sedentary time with light-intensity physical activity was associated with increased odds of reaching hemoglobin A 1c (OR=1.18 [1.04, 1.35]), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR=1.17 [1.04, 1.32]), and triglyceride (OR=1.20 [1.05, 1.36]) control goals. Among US Hispanic/Latino adults with diabetes mellitus, less sedentary time, but not moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, was associated with improved CVD risk factor control, specifically in reaching hemoglobin A 1c and triglyceride control goals. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  12. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  13. The use of risk indicators for establishing inspection and control priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Klimasauskas, A.; Nedzinskas, L.

    2003-01-01

    Risk-informed approach used to support decision-making related to in-service inspections was considered in order to identify ways for establishing inspection and control priorities. The in-service inspection of piping in the Ignalina NPP has been selected as the object for research application, The inspection process studied was modelled using the integration of deterministic and probabilistic analysis methods, In order to optimize the inspection process, the focus was set on the highest risk measured as the conditional core damage frequency, It was produced by quantitatively estimated probabilities of different degradation states and conditional failure consequence probabilities, Comprehensive databases for calculation of such indicators (measures) were collected and analyzed, The failure statistical analysis as well as the evaluation of inspection efficiency expressed by the probability of defect detection was also used, The databases were further investigated with a closer attention to the data variation and comparison of risk measures using the developed software, The developed software was used to perform and administrate all the risk evaluations and ensure the possibilities to compare different options and perform sensitivity analysis, The risk measures helped to define an adequate inspection program and to focus inspections on the more important locations of the study systems, This approach allowed an optimisation of the inspection program while the probabilistic and fundamental deterministic safety requirements were maintained, The approaches to define an acceptable level of the inspection program were also considered. These approaches to define an acceptable risk were considered together with the means to reduce the number of inspection sites and the cumulative radiation exposure to the NPP inspection personnel with a reduction of overall risk, The investigated issues provided a good basis for drawing conclusions about the inspection priorities, to

  14. Offset Risk Minimization for Open-loop Optimal Control of Oil Reservoirs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea; Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Jørgensen, J. B.

    2017-01-01

    Simulation studies of oil field water flooding have demonstrated a significant potential of optimal control technology to improve industrial practices. However, real-life applications are challenged by unknown geological factors that make reservoir models highly uncertain. To minimize...... the associated financial risks, the oil literature has used ensemble-based methods to manipulate the net present value (NPV) distribution by optimizing sample estimated risk measures. In general, such methods successfully reduce overall risk. However, as this paper demonstrates, ensemble-based control strategies...... practices. The results suggest that it may be more relevant to consider the NPV offset distribution than the NPV distribution when minimizing risk in production optimization....

  15. Measuring Normative Risk Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A.G. Alserda (Gosse)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThe results of eliciting risk preferences depend on the elicitation method. Different methods of measuring the same variable tend to produce different results. This raises the question whether normative risk preferences can be elicited at all. Using two types of manipulation, I assess

  16. Legacy Risk Measure for Environmental Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S. A.; Nitschke, R. L.

    2002-01-01

    The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is investigating the development of a comprehensive and quantitative risk model framework for environmental management activities at the site. Included are waste management programs (high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, mixed low-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, and special nuclear materials), major environmental restoration efforts, major decontamination and decommissioning projects, and planned long-term stewardship activities. Two basic types of risk estimates are included: risks from environmental management activities, and long-term legacy risks from wastes/materials. Both types of risks are estimated using the Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) developed at the INEEL. Given these two types of risk calculations, the following evaluations can be performed: risk evaluation of an entire program (covering waste/material as it now exists through disposal or other e nd states); risk comparisons of alternative programs or activities; comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost for activities or entire programs; ranking of programs or activities by risk; ranking of wastes/materials by risk; evaluation of site risk changes with time as activities progress; and integrated performance measurement using indicators such as injury/death and exposure rates. This paper discusses the definition and calculation of legacy risk measures and associated issues. The legacy risk measure is needed to support three of the seven types of evaluations listed above: comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost, ranking of wastes/materials by risk, and evaluation of site risk changes with time

  17. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  18. Decision principles derived from risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

  19. Risk and reliability allocation to risk control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vojnovic, D.; Kozuh, M.

    1992-01-01

    The risk allocation procedure is used as an analytical model to support the optimal decision making for reliability/availability improvement planning. Both levels of decision criteria, the plant risk measures and plant performance indices, are used in risk allocation procedure. Decision support system uses the multi objective decision making concept. (author) [sl

  20. Drug and alcohol crash risk : a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    This study used a case-control design to estimate the risk of crashes involving drivers using drugs, alcohol or both. Data was collected in Virginia Beach, Virginia, for 20 months. The study obtained biological measures on more than 3,000 crash...

  1. Automated and Clinical Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System Density Measures Predict Risk for Screen-Detected and Interval Cancers: A Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlikowske, Karla; Scott, Christopher G; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir P; Ma, Lin; Winham, Stacey; Jensen, Matthew R; Wu, Fang Fang; Malkov, Serghei; Pankratz, V Shane; Cummings, Steven R; Shepherd, John A; Brandt, Kathleen R; Miglioretti, Diana L; Vachon, Celine M

    2018-06-05

    In 30 states, women who have had screening mammography are informed of their breast density on the basis of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) density categories estimated subjectively by radiologists. Variation in these clinical categories across and within radiologists has led to discussion about whether automated BI-RADS density should be reported instead. To determine whether breast cancer risk and detection are similar for automated and clinical BI-RADS density measures. Case-control. San Francisco Mammography Registry and Mayo Clinic. 1609 women with screen-detected cancer, 351 women with interval invasive cancer, and 4409 matched control participants. Automated and clinical BI-RADS density assessed on digital mammography at 2 time points from September 2006 to October 2014, interval and screen-detected breast cancer risk, and mammography sensitivity. Of women whose breast density was categorized by automated BI-RADS more than 6 months to 5 years before diagnosis, those with extremely dense breasts had a 5.65-fold higher interval cancer risk (95% CI, 3.33 to 9.60) and a 1.43-fold higher screen-detected risk (CI, 1.14 to 1.79) than those with scattered fibroglandular densities. Associations of interval and screen-detected cancer with clinical BI-RADS density were similar to those with automated BI-RADS density, regardless of whether density was measured more than 6 months to less than 2 years or 2 to 5 years before diagnosis. Automated and clinical BI-RADS density measures had similar discriminatory accuracy, which was higher for interval than screen-detected cancer (c-statistics: 0.70 vs. 0.62 [P automated and clinical BI-RADS categories: fatty, 93% versus 92%; scattered fibroglandular densities, 90% versus 90%; heterogeneously dense, 82% versus 78%; and extremely dense, 63% versus 64%, respectively. Neither automated nor clinical BI-RADS density was assessed on tomosynthesis, an emerging breast screening method. Automated and clinical BI

  2. Measures of risk importance and their applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.; Denning, R.S.; Saltos, N.

    1983-07-01

    This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied

  3. The effect of hemodialysis on balance measurements and risk of fall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erken, Ertugrul; Ozelsancak, Ruya; Sahin, Safak; Yılmaz, Emine Ece; Torun, Dilek; Leblebici, Berrin; Kuyucu, Yunus Emre; Sezer, Siren

    2016-10-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have increased risk of falls and fall-related complications. Other than aging and factors related to chronic kidney disease, treatment of hemodialysis may also contribute to this increased risk. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the impairment of balance after a session of hemodialysis with a quantitative assessment and reveal an increased fall risk that would possibly be related to treatment of hemodialysis for patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Fifty-six patients with ESRD on chronic hemodialysis program and 53 healthy individuals were involved in this study. Fall Index percentages were calculated, and fall risk categories were determined for all patients and healthy controls using Tetrax posturography device (Sunlight Medical Ltd Israel). The patient group was evaluated twice for balance, before and after a routine session of hemodialysis. Fall Index scores of healthy controls were lower than that of ESRD patients (p = 0.001). In the patient group, we found the mean Fall Index to be significantly higher at the post-dialysis assessment compared to the pre-dialysis assessment (p = 0.003). The number of patients with high risk of falling also increased at the post-dialysis assessment yet the difference did not reach significance. Fall Index was correlated with the increase in age only at the pre-dialysis balance measurement (p = 0.038). Patients with better dialysis adequacy had significantly lower Fall Index scores than the others at the pre-dialysis balance measurement (p = 0.004). The difference was not significant at the post-dialysis measurement. In the current study, we evaluated the balance of ESRD patients before and after a routine session of hemodialysis treatment. This is the first study to investigate the effect of hemodialysis on balance, using an electronic posturographic balance system. We found the Fall Index score to be significantly higher after hemodialysis, indicating a negative

  4. Foot length measurements of newborns of high and low risk pregnancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Karina Marques Salge

    Full Text Available Abstract OBJECTIVE Comparing foot length measurements of newborns in high and low risk pregnancies at a public hospital in Goiânia, GO, Brazil. METHOD A cross-sectional study carried out between April, 2013 and May, 2015, with a sample consisting of 180 newborns; 106 infants of women from high-risk pregnancies and 74 of women from low-risk pregnancies. Data were descriptively analyzed. Foot length measurement was performed using a stiff transparent plastic ruler, graduated in millimeters. The length of both feet was measured from the tip of the hallux (big toe to the end of the heel. RESULTS A statistically significant relationship was found between the foot length and newborn’s weight, between the cephalic and thoracic perimeters in the high-risk group and between the cephalic perimeter in the control group. CONCLUSION There is a need for creating cut-off points to identify newborns with intrauterine growth disorders using foot length.

  5. Randomized Controlled Trial of an Educational Intervention Using an Online Risk Calculator for Knee Osteoarthritis: Effect on Risk Perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losina, Elena; Michl, Griffin L; Smith, Karen C; Katz, Jeffrey N

    2017-08-01

    Young adults, in general, are not aware of their risk of knee osteoarthritis (OA). Understanding risk and risk factors is critical to knee OA prevention. We tested the efficacy of a personalized risk calculator on accuracy of knee OA risk perception and willingness to change behaviors associated with knee OA risk factors. We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 375 subjects recruited using Amazon Mechanical Turk. Subjects were randomized to either use a personalized risk calculator based on demographic and risk-factor information (intervention), or to view general OA risk information (control). At baseline and after the intervention, subjects estimated their 10-year and lifetime risk of knee OA and responded to contemplation ladders measuring willingness to change diet, exercise, or weight-control behaviors. Subjects in both arms had an estimated 3.6% 10-year and 25.3% lifetime chance of developing symptomatic knee OA. Both arms greatly overestimated knee OA risk at baseline, estimating a 10-year risk of 26.1% and a lifetime risk of 47.8%. After the intervention, risk calculator subjects' perceived 10-year risk decreased by 12.9 percentage points to 12.5% and perceived lifetime risk decreased by 19.5 percentage points to 28.1%. Control subjects' perceived risks remained unchanged. Risk calculator subjects were more likely to move to an action stage on the exercise contemplation ladder (relative risk 2.1). There was no difference between the groups for diet or weight-control ladders. The risk calculator is a useful intervention for knee OA education and may motivate some exercise-related behavioral change. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

  6. Healthcare workers' challenges in the implementation of tuberculosis infection prevention and control measures in Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brouwer, Miranda; Coelho, Eliana; Mosse, Carla das Dores; Brondi, Luciana; Winterton, Laura; van Leth, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Healthcare Workers (HCWs) have a higher frequency of TB exposure than the general population and have therefore an occupational TB risk that infection prevention and control (IPC) measures aim to reduce. HCWs are crucial in the implementation of these measures. The objective of the study was to investigate Mozambican HCWs' perceptions of their occupational TB risk and the measures they report using to reduce this risk. In addition, we explored the challenges HCWs encounter while using these TBIPC measures. Focus group discussion. Analysis according content method. Four categories of HCWs: auxiliary workers, medical (doctors and clinical officers), nurses and TB program staff. HCWs are aware of their occupational TB risk and use various measures to reduce their risk of infection. HCWs find it challenging to employ measures that minimize such risks and a lack of clear guidelines contributes to these challenges. HCWs' and patient behavior further complicate the use of TBIPC measures. HCWs in Mozambique perceive a high occupational risk of TB infection. They report several challenges using measures to reduce this risk such as shortage of material, lack of clear guidelines, insufficient motivation and inadequate training. Robust training with motivational approaches, alongside supervision and support for HCWs could improve implementation of TBIPC measures. Healthcare management should address the areas for improvement that are beyond the individual HCW's control.

  7. Use of the Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique can lead to more robust risk control options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Card, Alan J; Simsekler, Mecit Can Emre; Clark, Michael; Ward, James R; Clarkson, P John

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment is widely used to improve patient safety, but healthcare workers are not trained to design robust solutions to the risks they uncover. This leads to an overreliance on the weakest category of risk control recommendations: administrative controls. Increasing the proportion of non-administrative risk control options (NARCOs) generated would enable (though not ensure) the adoption of more robust solutions. Experimentally assess a method for generating stronger risk controls: The Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique. Participants generated risk control options in response to two patient safety scenarios. Scenario 1 (baseline): All participants used current practice (unstructured brainstorming). Scenario 2: Control group used current practice; intervention group used the GO-ARC Technique. To control for individual differences between participants, analysis focused on the change in the proportion of NARCOs for each group. Proportion of NARCOs decreased from 0.18 at baseline to 0.12. Intervention group: Proportion increased from 0.10 at baseline to 0.29 using the GO-ARC Technique. Results were statistically significant. There was no decrease in the number of administrative controls generated by the intervention group. The Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique appears to lead to more robust risk control options.

  8. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk are special cases of φ-coherent and φ-convex measures of risk. Contrary to the classical use of coherent and convex

  9. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  10. Measurement control program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1981-01-01

    A measurement control program for the model plant is described. The discussion includes the technical basis for such a program, the application of measurement control principles to each measurement, and the use of special experiments to estimate measurement error parameters for difficult-to-measure materials. The discussion also describes the statistical aspects of the program, and the documentation procedures used to record, maintain, and process the basic data. The purpose of the session is to enable participants to: (1) understand the criteria for this type of a measurement control program; (2) understand the kinds of physical standards required for the various measurement processes, e.g., weighing, analytical, NDA; (3) understand the need for and importance of a measurement control program; (4) understand the need for special experiments to provide an improved basis for the measurement of difficult-to-measure materials; (5) understand the general scope of the program's statistical aspects; and (6) understand the basis and scope of the documentation procedures

  11. CONTINGENCIES FOR MEASUREMENT OF THE CREDIT RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela BARBULESCU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Global Financial Crisis, which affected various banks, some of them very important banks, highlighted the importance of an accurate credit risk measurement in order to be able to overcome it. There are a variety of such credit risk measurement models, so we can say that banks face a real dilemma when having to choose the most appropriate one. The aim of this paper is to examine the most popular methods used to measure the credit risk and to identify the strengths and the weaknesses of each one of it. The research was accomplished from a double perspective, in which the conceptual methodological approach is correlated to a variety of references to practical actions aiming the measurement and the prevention of credit risk. The study includes the presentation of the objectives of credit risk analysis, the most appropriate moments for doing such an analysis, the steps that have to be done in order to measure the credit risk, the errors that can overcome in the credit risk measurement system, generated by the misclassifications of the studied company, and the presentation of the specific information of financial creditors. The findings expressed in this paper were mainly the result of a qualitative analysis which showed that there is no best model for credit risk measurement, each one having both strengths and weaknesses, some providing a comprehensive analysis of the individual customer’s financial strength others allowing banks permanently monitor fluctuating default risk and identify the possibly problems at an early stage.

  12. Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior: A Longitudinal TRAILS Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

    2017-01-01

    Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this study we tested whether the imbalance between behavioral control and reward sensitivity underlies risk taking behavior in adolescence, using a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 715 adolescents, of which 66% revealed an increased risk for mental health problems. To assess behavioral control at age 11 we used both self-report (effortful control) as well as behavioral measures of cognitive control (i.e., working memory and response inhibition). Reward sensitivity was assessed with the Bangor Gambling Task. The main finding of this study was that effortful control at age 11 was the best predictor of risk taking behavior (alcohol and cannabis use) at age 16, particularly among adolescents who were more reward sensitive. Risk taking behavior in adolescents might be explained by relatively weak behavioral control functioning combined with high sensitivity for reward.

  13. Developing risk management dashboards using risk and quality measures: A visual best practices approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunting, Robert F; Siegal, Dana

    2017-10-01

    Because quality measures are ubiquitous, health care risk management leaders often use them as a proxy for risk management measures. While certain quality measures adequately reflect some aspects of risk management, they are neither a perfect nor complete substitute for well-developed and comprehensive risk management measures. Using a comprehensive approach consisting of quality measures, risk measures, and measures that are less amenable to classification would be the best approach. Identifying the most powerful and informative measures, designing the most appropriate dashboards, and incorporating visual best practices are crucial steps required for evaluating the effectiveness and value of an enterprise risk management program. The authors explain the terms and concepts, review the measures available in the literature, propose new measures, discuss visual best practices, and provide sample dashboard components. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  14. Examining Measures of Weight as Risk Factors for Sport-Related Injury in Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah A. Richmond

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To examine body mass index (BMI and waist circumference (WC as risk factors for sport injury in adolescents. Design. A secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial. Methods. Adolescents (n=1,040 at the ages of 11–15 years from two Calgary junior high schools were included. BMI (kg/m2 and WC (cm were measured from direct measures at baseline assessment. Categories (overweight/obese were created using validated international (BMI and national (WC cut-off points. A Poisson regression analysis controlling for relevant covariates (sex, previous injury, sport participation, intervention group, and aerobic fitness level estimated the risk of sport injury [incidence rate ratios (IRR with 95% confidence intervals (CI]. Results. There was an increased risk of time loss injury (IRR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.01–8.04 and knee injury (IRR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.00–6.94 in adolescents that were overweight/obese; however, increases in injury risk for all injury and lower extremity injury were not statistically significant. Estimates suggested a greater risk of time loss injury [IRR = 1.63 (95% CI: 0.93–2.47] in adolescents with high measures of WC. Conclusions. There is an increased risk of time loss injury and knee injury in overweight/obese adolescents. Sport injury prevention training programs should include strategies that target all known risk factors for injury.

  15. Risk Metrics and Measures for an Extended PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wielenberg, A.; Loeffler, H.; Hasnaoui, C.; Burgazzi, L.; Cazzoli, E.; Jan, P.; La Rovere, S.; Siklossy, T.; Vitazkova, J.; Raimond, E.

    2016-01-01

    This report provides a review of the main used risk measures for Level 1 and Level 2 PSA. It depicts their advantages, limitations and disadvantages and develops some more precise risk measures relevant for extended PSAs and helpful for decision-making. This report does not recommend or suggest any quantitative value for the risk measures. It does not discuss in details decision-making based on PSA results neither. The choice of one appropriate risk measure or a set of risk measures depends on the decision making approach as well as on the issue to be decided. The general approach for decision making aims at a multi-attribute approach. This can include the use of several risk measures as appropriate. Section 5 provides some recommendations on the main risk metrics to be used for an extended PSA. For Level 1 PSA, Fuel Damage Frequency and Radionuclide Mobilization Frequency are recommended. For Level 2 PSA, the characterization of loss of containment function and a total risk measure based on the aggregated activity releases of all sequences rated by their frequencies is proposed. (authors)

  16. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  17. Tychastic measure of viability risk

    CERN Document Server

    Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

  18. A mathematical foundation for controlling radiation health risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumazawa, S.

    2000-01-01

    Radiation protection is to attain an adequate control of radiation health risk compared with other risks. Our society in the 21 st century is predicted by some experts to seek the high priority of safety for expanding activity of human beings. The law of controlling risks will be a key subject to serve the safety of human beings and their environment. The main principles of the ICRP system of radiological system are strongly relating to the general law of various risk controls. The individual-based protection concept clearly gives us a mathematical model of controlling risks in general. This paper discusses the simplest formulation of controlling risks in the ICRP system, including other relating systems. First, the basic characteristics of occupational exposure as a risk control is presented by analyzing the data compiled over half a century. It shows the relation ship between dose control levels and individually controlled doses. The individual-based control also exerts some influence on the resultant collective dose. The study of occupational exposure concludes the simple mathematical expression of controlling doses under the ICRP system as shown by Kumazawa and Numakunai. Second, the typical characteristics of biological effects with repair or recovery of bio-systems are given by analyzing the data published. Those show the relationship between dose and biologically controlled or regulated response. The bio-system is undoubtedly relating to cybernetics that contains many functions of controlling risks. Consequently radiation effects might somewhat express the feature of biological risk controls. The shouldered survival of irradiated cells shows cybernetic characteristics that are assumed to be the mathematical foundation of controlling risks. The dose-response relationship shows another type of cybernetic characteristics, which could be reduced to the same basic form of controlling risks. The limited study of radiation effects definitely confirms the two

  19. The role of oral physiciand inpredicting the risk of obstructive sleep apnea: A case-control study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lavanya, Reddy; Babu, Dara Balaji Gandhi; Chavva, Sunandha; Boringi, Mamatha; Waghray, Shefali; Yeladandi, Mounica

    2016-01-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common medical disorder with serious complications if untreated. Dentists play a vital role in the early diagnosis of this condition, thereby improving patients' prognoses. The purpose of this study was to identify patients with a high risk of OSA using simple cephalometric measurements in patients receiving routine dental care. The present study was conducted on 206 patients divided into a high-risk group and a control group after answering the Berlin questionnaire. Cephalometric analysis of a digital cephalogram was performed to measure the upper airway diameter (UAD) and mandibular-to-hyoid bone distance (MP-H) by 2 observers at 2 different times. Among 206 patients, 93 (45%) were included in the high-risk group and 113 (55%) were in the control group. No significant difference was present between the groups with regard to gender, and the patients ranged in age from 18 to 65 years. The UAD measurements in the high-risk group were significantly lower than in the control group, and the MP-H measurements were significantly higher in the high-risk group than in the control group. The UAD was lower in middle-aged patients in both groups. Our study found that the UAD was lower in individuals with a high risk of OSA. Also, we found that middle-aged individuals of both genders were more likely to develop OSA. Dentists play a vital role in diagnosing patients at a high risk for OSA via thorough clinical examinations, risk factor analyses, and simple cephalometric analyses

  20. The role of oral physiciand inpredicting the risk of obstructive sleep apnea: A case-control study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavanya, Reddy; Babu, Dara Balaji Gandhi; Chavva, Sunandha; Boringi, Mamatha; Waghray, Shefali; Yeladandi, Mounica [Dept. of Oral Medicine and Radiology, Panineeya Institute of Dental Sciences and Research Centre, Hyderabad (India)

    2016-09-15

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common medical disorder with serious complications if untreated. Dentists play a vital role in the early diagnosis of this condition, thereby improving patients' prognoses. The purpose of this study was to identify patients with a high risk of OSA using simple cephalometric measurements in patients receiving routine dental care. The present study was conducted on 206 patients divided into a high-risk group and a control group after answering the Berlin questionnaire. Cephalometric analysis of a digital cephalogram was performed to measure the upper airway diameter (UAD) and mandibular-to-hyoid bone distance (MP-H) by 2 observers at 2 different times. Among 206 patients, 93 (45%) were included in the high-risk group and 113 (55%) were in the control group. No significant difference was present between the groups with regard to gender, and the patients ranged in age from 18 to 65 years. The UAD measurements in the high-risk group were significantly lower than in the control group, and the MP-H measurements were significantly higher in the high-risk group than in the control group. The UAD was lower in middle-aged patients in both groups. Our study found that the UAD was lower in individuals with a high risk of OSA. Also, we found that middle-aged individuals of both genders were more likely to develop OSA. Dentists play a vital role in diagnosing patients at a high risk for OSA via thorough clinical examinations, risk factor analyses, and simple cephalometric analyses.

  1. Risk indicators as a tool for risk control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oien, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a general methodology for the establishment of risk indicators that can be used as a tool for risk control during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The risk indicators established are based on the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). The general methodology is evaluated against comparable approaches both in offshore and nuclear industry. There are two distinct features of this methodology. The first is that it is truly risk-based with the intention of covering the total risk picture. The second is that the identification of the risk factors contributing most to the total risk is based on realistic changes of each factor assessed by the platform personnel, not a theoretically assumed change. The set of risk indicators for one specific installation is presented along with test results

  2. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  3. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

  4. Nuclear safety risk control in the outage of CANDU unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Mingliang; Zheng Jianhua

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear fuel remains in the core during the outage of CANDU unit, but there are still nuclear safety risks such as reactor accidental criticality, fuel element failure due to inability to properly remove residual heat. Furthermore, these risks are aggravated by the weakening plant system configuration and multiple cross operations during the outage. This paper analyzes the phases where there are potential nuclear safety risks on the basis of the typical critical path arrangement of the outage of Qinshan NPP 3 and introduces a series of CANDU-specific risk control measures taken during the past plant outages to ensure nuclear safety during the unit outage. (authors)

  5. Entropy Coherent and Entropy Convex Measures of Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, R.J.A.; Stadje, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    We introduce two subclasses of convex measures of risk, referred to as entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk. We prove that convex, entropy convex and entropy coherent measures of risk emerge as certainty equivalents under variational, homothetic and multiple priors preferences,

  6. Mapping the receptivity of malaria risk to plan the future of control in Somalia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alegana, Victor Adagi; Patil, Anand Prabhakar; Moloney, Grainne; Borle, Mohammed; Yusuf, Fahmi; Amran, Jamal; Snow, Robert William

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To measure the receptive risks of malaria in Somalia and compare decisions on intervention scale-up based on this map and the more widely used contemporary risk maps. Design Cross-sectional community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data for the period 2007–2010 corrected to a standard age range of 2 to Somalia. Participants Randomly sampled individuals of all ages. Main outcome measure Cartographic descriptions of malaria receptivity and contemporary risks in Somalia at the district level. Results The contemporary annual PfPR2–10 map estimated that all districts (n=74) and population (n=8.4 million) in Somalia were under hypoendemic transmission (≤10% PfPR2–10). Of these, 23% of the districts, home to 13% of the population, were under transmission of 10%–50% PfPR2–10) and the rest as hypoendemic. Conclusion Compared with maps of receptive risks, contemporary maps of transmission mask disparities of malaria risk necessary to prioritise and sustain future control. As malaria risk declines across Africa, efforts must be invested in measuring receptivity for efficient control planning. PMID:22855625

  7. Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  8. Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyrväinen, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

  9. Balance 2003 of the risks control at the Cea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-07-01

    As a research center on the energy, the information and health technologies and the defense, the Cea activities are indissociable from the risk control notion. To organize the risks management, the Cea decided to create in july 2003 a special pole of risks control and management. This presentation is based on some major topics of the risks control: the environmental impact control, the occupational risks control, the installations safety control and the hazardous matter transport control. (A.L.B.)

  10. Use of the Asthma Control Questionnaire to predict future risk of asthma exacerbation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meltzer, Eli O; Busse, William W; Wenzel, Sally E; Belozeroff, Vasily; Weng, Haoling H; Feng, JingYuan; Chon, Yun; Chiou, Chiun-Fang; Globe, Denise; Lin, Shao-Lee

    2011-01-01

    Direct correlation of assessments of a validated composite measure such as the Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) and risk of exacerbation has not been previously demonstrated in a randomized controlled trial. To evaluate the ability of the ACQ score over time to predict risk of a future asthma exacerbation. This analysis included data from a 12-week placebo-controlled trial (N = 292) of AMG 317, an IL-4 receptor α antagonist, in patients with moderate to severe atopic asthma. At baseline, patients had an ACQ score ≥1.5. Exacerbations were defined as requirement for systemic corticosteroids. A Cox proportional hazards model was used, with ACQ score as the time-dependent covariate. The analysis was repeated for individual components of the ACQ. Each 1-point increase in ACQ was associated with a 50% increased risk of exacerbation (hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.03-2.20) for the following 2-week period. Evaluation of individual ACQ components also demonstrated a similar trend, though each to a lesser degree than the full composite ACQ. Although based on a retrospective analysis, with small number of exacerbations, these findings support the utility of the composite ACQ score measurement to predict risk of future exacerbation in clinical trials and clinical practice. The composite ACQ score measurement was found to be a better predictor of future risk than individual ACQ components. Copyright © 2010 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Application and inspiration of risk control in dose control in Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shaoqing; Chen Yan; Chai Jianshe; Zhang Chunming

    2013-01-01

    The article introduced the basic concept of risk and risk control methods. Using the risk control methods, we analyzed and evaluated the actions to control dose of public and occupational radiation exposure in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident, especially found out the weak points of these actions, and finally discussed the application of the risk control methods in dose management during nuclear accidents. (authors)

  12. The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garsztka Przemysław

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

  13. Risk measures in practical use: risk reduction has its price, but is it known?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinertsen, Rune

    1995-01-01

    Different risk measures are discussed in order to decide which to use to best express the risk workers are exposed to. A new risk measure is introduced and advantages and disadvantages are presented. The need for a new risk measure (Expected Number of Fatalities Rate ENFR), is discussed and explained with the help of an example. The example also contains a comparison with the well-known FAR-value. Also some problems and benefits of introducing a measure of the kind: ΔRISK/Δ$ are discussed and conclusions made. The question of what amount of money should be used on risk reducing activities is also addressed

  14. Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

  15. Controlling operational risk: Concepts and practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Tillaart, A.H.A.J.

    2003-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is controlling 'operational risk' in banks. Operational risk is defined as the risk of losses resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people, systems, or from external events. Within this very broad subject, we focus on the place of operational risk

  16. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  17. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  18. Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

    2018-06-01

    This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

  19. Cascade reservoir flood control operation based on risk grading and warning in the Upper Yellow River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuejiao, M.; Chang, J.; Wang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Flood risk reduction with non-engineering measures has become the main idea for flood management. It is more effective for flood risk management to take various non-engineering measures. In this paper, a flood control operation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River was proposed to lower the flood risk of the water system with multi-reservoir by combining the reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) and flood early warning together. Specifically, a discharge control chart was employed to build the joint RFCO simulation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River. And entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to establish a multi-factorial risk assessment model for flood warning grade. Furthermore, after determining the implementing mode of countermeasures with future inflow, an intelligent optimization algorithm was used to solve the optimization model for applicable water release scheme. In addition, another model without any countermeasure was set to be a comparative experiment. The results show that the model developed in this paper can further decrease the flood risk of water system with cascade reservoirs. It provides a new approach to flood risk management by coupling flood control operation and flood early warning of cascade reservoirs.

  20. Study of operational risk-based configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1991-08-01

    This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

  1. The use of risk assessment to support control of Salmonella in pork

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    Despite the effectivity of control measures in the past decade, domestic pork was estimated to be the most important food source for salmonellosis in Denmark in 2014 (Anonymous 2015). Therefore, there is a continued focus on the identification of effective intervention measures in the pig and pork...... of salmonellosis for the Danish population. The results of these projects illustrate how quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) can be applied to support the control of Salmonella in pork....

  2. Basel III Liquidity Risk Measures and Bank Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. P. Hlatshwayo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Basel III banking regulation emphasizes the use of liquidity coverage and nett stable funding ratios as measures of liquidity risk. In this paper, we approximate these measures by using global liquidity data for 391 hand-selected, LIBOR-based, Basel II compliant banks in 36 countries for the period 2002 to 2012. In particular, we compare the risk sensitivity of the aforementioned Basel III liquidity risk measures to those of traditional measures such as the nonperforming assets ratio, return-on-assets, LIBOR-OISS, Basel II Tier 1 capital ratio, government securities ratio, and brokered deposits ratio. Furthermore, we use a discrete-time hazard model to study bank failure. In this regard, we find that Basel III risk measures have limited ability to predict bank failure when compared with their traditional counterparts. An important result is that a higher liquidity coverage ratio is associated with a higher bank failure rate. We also find that market-wide liquidity risk (proxied by LIBOR-OISS was the major predictor of bank failures in 2009 and 2010 while idiosyncratic liquidity risk (proxied by other liquidity risk measures was less. In particular, our contribution is the first to achieve these results on a global scale over a relatively long period for a variety of banks.

  3. Risk, control and self-identity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fynbo, Lars

    2014-01-01

    AIM - This article explores how young Danish drunk (and drug) drivers relate to the risk of driving under the influence (DUI). DESIGN - The study is based on qualitative interviews with 25 convicted drunk drivers who in 2010 participated in mandatory alcohol and traffic safety courses. The analysis...... follows Stephen Lyng’s concept of “edgework”, focusing on volitional risk taking and its effect on the acting individual’s self-identity. RESULTS - Drawing on the interviewees’ accounts of being arrested for drunk driving, the analysis discusses three different categories of young drunk drivers. Those...... in the first category view a DUI arrest as a loss of control and a reminder of the risk of DUI. Those in the second present DUI as a reaction to what they perceive as untenable social demands. Those in the third see loss of control - such as causing a traffic accident - as the ultimate way of claiming control...

  4. Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

  5. Remarks on Risk-Sensitive Control Problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menaldi, Jose-Luis; Robin, Maurice

    2005-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the discounted risk-sensitive control problem for periodic diffusion processes when the discount factor α goes to zero. If u α (θ,x) denotes the optimal cost function, θ being the risk factor, then it is shown that lim { α to 0}α u α (θ,x)=ξ(θ) where ξ(θ) is the average on ]0,θ[ of the optimal cost of the (usual) infinite horizon risk-sensitive control problem

  6. Risk factors and effectiveness of preventive measures against influenza in the community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilla, Jesús; Godoy, Pere; Domínguez, Ángela; Martín, Vicente; Delgado‐Rodríguez, Miguel; Martínez‐Baz, Iván; Baricot, Maretva; Soldevila, Nuria; Mayoral, José M.; Astray, Jenaro; Quintana, José M.; Cantón, Rafael; Castro, Ady; González‐Candelas, Fernando; Alonso, Jordi; Saez, Marc; Tamames, Sonia; Pumarola, Tomás

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Castilla et al. (2013) Risk factors and effectiveness of preventive measures against influenza in the community. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(2) 177–183. Background  The role of different risk exposures and preventive measures against influenza has not been well established. Objective  The aim of this study was to evaluate risk factors and measures to prevent influenza infection in the community. Methods  We conducted a multicenter case–control study. Cases were 481 outpatients aged 18 years or older with laboratory‐confirmed influenza A(H1N1)09 in the 2009–2010 season in Spain. A control was selected for each case from outpatients from the same area matched by age and date of consultation. Information on risk situations, preventive measures and other variables was obtained by interview and review of the medical record. Results  In the multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis, the risk of a diagnosis of influenza increased with the number of cohabitants (compared with <3 cohabitants, three cohabitants had an OR = 1·80, 95% CI 1·12–2·89, and ≥5 cohabitants had an OR = 2·66, 95% CI 1·31–5·41) and for health care workers (OR = 2·94, 95% CI 1·53–5·66). The use of metropolitan public transport was associated with a lower frequency of a diagnosis of influenza (OR = 0·45, 95% CI 0·30–0·68) but not the use of taxis or long‐distance transport. The influenza A(H1N1)09 vaccine had a protective effect (OR = 0·13, 95% CI 0·04–0·48), unlike hand washing after touching contaminated surfaces or the use of alcohol‐based hand sanitizers. Conclusion  The home environment appears to play an important role in the spread of influenza in adults, but not the use of public transport. Health care workers have a higher risk of contracting influenza. Vaccination was the most effective preventive measure. PMID:22458533

  7. Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daníelsson, J.; Jorgensen, B.N.; Sarma, M.; Vries, de C.G.

    2006-01-01

    Using regular variation to define heavy tailed distributions, we show that prominent downside risk measures produce similar and consistent ranking of heavy tailed risk. Thus, regardless of the particular risk measure being used, assets will be ranked in a similar and consistent manner for heavy

  8. Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lathrop, J.W.

    1978-01-01

    The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations

  9. 12 CFR Appendix E to Part 225 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for Bank Holding Companies: Market Risk Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) The organization must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is...-based capital ratio numerator. Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes... techniques adequately measure associated market risk. 10 An organization's internal model may use any...

  10. [Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dejun; Fu, Xiaokuan; Kong, Fanling; Sui, Shaofeng; Jiang, Yuanyuan; Du, Yinglin; Zhou, Jingyang

    2014-06-01

    Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants were performed on an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons, based on improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, with consideration of actual situation in China and in the present project. With the use of engineering analysis and identification of occupational hazards in the improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, hazard rating (HR) and risk assessment were performed on chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons. The chemical toxicants in the isophorone nitrile device were mainly isophorone, hydrocyanic acid, methanol, phosphoric acid, sodium hydroxide, and sodium cyanide; the HR values were mild hazard (2), extreme hazard (5), mild hazard (2), mild hazard (2), moderate hazard (3), and extreme hazard (5), respectively, and the corresponding exposure rating (ER) values were 2.09, 2.72, 2.76, 1.68, 2.0, and 1.59, respectively. The risk of chemical toxicants in this project was assessed according to the formula Risk = [HR×ER](1/2). Hydrocyanic acid was determined as high risk, sodium hydroxide and sodium cyanide as medium risk, and isophorone, methanol, and phosphoric acid as low risk. Priority in handling of risks was determined by risk rating. The table of risk control measure was established for pre-assessment of occupational hazards. With risk assessment in this study, we concluded that the isophorone nitrile device with 5,000 ton annual production was a high-occupational hazard device. This device is a project of extreme occupational hazard. The improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method is a scientific and applicable method, and is especially suitable for pre-evaluation of on-site project with no analogy.

  11. Linking Measured Risk Aversion to Individual Characteristics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartog, J.; Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A.; Jonker, N.

    2002-01-01

    From the stated price of a specified lottery in three unrelated surveys we deduce individuals' Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion. We find that risk aversion indeed falls with income and wealth. Entrepreneurs are less risk averse than employees, civil servants are more risk averse than private

  12. New Risk Measure and Idiosyncratic Risk in Taiwan Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Yin-Ching Jan; Su-Ling Chiu; Jerry M. C. Wang

    2013-01-01

    Under the model developed by Merton (1987), the idiosyncratic risk would be important to explain the expected stock return. We follow the approach of Daniel and Titman (1998), and use the risk measure developed by Jan and Wang (2012) to examine whether idiosyncratic risk can play an important role in explaining the expected return in Taiwan stock market. We find that beta can¡¯t explain the expected return, and that idiosyncratic risk has a positive relation to expected returns for stocks wit...

  13. Control Measure Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The EPA Control Measure Dataset is a collection of documents describing air pollution control available to regulated facilities for the control and abatement of air...

  14. Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever: Risk factors and control measures for the infection abatement

    Science.gov (United States)

    ASLAM, SAADIA; LATIF, MUHAMMAD SHAHZAD; DAUD, MUHAMMAD; RAHMAN, ZIA UR; TABASSUM, BUSHRA; RIAZ, MUHAMMAD SOHAIL; KHAN, ANWAR; TARIQ, MUHAMMAD; HUSNAIN, TAYYAB

    2016-01-01

    Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a vector-borne viral disease, widely distributed in different regions of the world. The fever is caused by the CCHF virus (CCHFV), which belongs to the Nairovirus genus and Bunyaviridae family. The virus is clustered in seven genotypes, which are Africa-1, Africa-2, Africa-3, Europe-1, Europe-2, Asia-1 and Asia-2. The virus is highly pathogenic in nature, easily transmissible and has a high case fatality rate of 10–40%. The reservoir and vector of CCHFV are the ticks of the Hyalomma genus. Therefore, the circulation of this virus depends upon the distribution of the ticks. The virus can be transmitted from tick to animal, animal to human and human to human. The major symptoms include headache, high fever, abdominal pain, myalgia, hypotension and flushed face. As the disease progresses, severe symptoms start appearing, which include petechiae, ecchymosis, epistaxis, bleeding gums and emesis. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, quantitative polymerase chain reaction, antigen detection, serum neutralization and isolation of the virus by cell culture are the diagnostic techniques used for this viral infection. There is no specific antiviral therapy available thus far. However, ribavirin has been approved by the World Health Organization for the treatment of CCHFV infection. Awareness campaigns regarding the risk factors and control measures can aid in reducing the spread of this disease to a greater extent, particularly in developing countries. PMID:26870327

  15. Preference towards Control in Risk Taking: Control, No Control, or Randomize?

    OpenAIRE

    Li, King King

    2010-01-01

    This paper experimentally investigates preference towards different methods of control in risk taking. Participants are asked to choose between different ways for choosing which numbers to bet on for a gamble. They can choose the numbers themselves (control), let the experimenter choose (no control), or randomize. It is found that in addition to the more conventional preference for control, some participants prefer not to control, or randomization. These preferences are robust as participants...

  16. A comprehensive Network Security Risk Model for process control networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Matthew H; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2009-02-01

    The risk of cyber attacks on process control networks (PCN) is receiving significant attention due to the potentially catastrophic extent to which PCN failures can damage the infrastructures and commodity flows that they support. Risk management addresses the coupled problems of (1) reducing the likelihood that cyber attacks would succeed in disrupting PCN operation and (2) reducing the severity of consequences in the event of PCN failure or manipulation. The Network Security Risk Model (NSRM) developed in this article provides a means of evaluating the efficacy of candidate risk management policies by modeling the baseline risk and assessing expectations of risk after the implementation of candidate measures. Where existing risk models fall short of providing adequate insight into the efficacy of candidate risk management policies due to shortcomings in their structure or formulation, the NSRM provides model structure and an associated modeling methodology that captures the relevant dynamics of cyber attacks on PCN for risk analysis. This article develops the NSRM in detail in the context of an illustrative example.

  17. A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Paula Colette Kuypers

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased.A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases/sampling (controls. The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161 and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301 were included in the study.Main findings were that 1 alcohol in general (all the concentrations together caused an elevated crash risk; 2 cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3 when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives.The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

  18. Some new classes of consistent risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Dhaene, J.L.M.; Tang, Q.

    2004-01-01

    Many types of insurance premium principles and/or risk measures can be characterized by means of a set of axioms, which in many cases are rather arbitrarily chosen and not always in accordance with economic reality. In the present paper we generalize Yaari¿s risk measure by relaxing his axioms. In

  19. A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

    2007-03-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

  20. The use of management controls to mitigate risk in strategic alliances: Field and survey evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anderson, S.W.; Christ, M.; Dekker, H.C.; Sedatole, K.L.

    2014-01-01

    Transaction cost economics (TCE) theory is widely used to study the governance and management control practices used to mitigate interfirm alliance risk. Following Williamson (1985, 1991), empirical studies typically measure transaction characteristics that proxy for risk in alliances (e.g., asset

  1. Control of System with Defined Risk Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavol Tomasov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In the following paper the basic requirements for system control with defined risk level is presented. The paper should be an introduction to describe of theoretical apparatus, which was created during some years of research work in the Department of information and safety systems in this area. It a modification or creation of new parts of Information theory, System theory, and Control theory means. This parts are necessary for the analysis and synthesis tasks in the systems where dominant attribute of control is defined risk level. The basic problem is the creation of protect mechanism again the threats from inside and from controlled system environs. For each risk reduction mechanism is needed some redundancy which should be into control algorithm to put by exactly determined way.

  2. Methodologies for measuring travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Shruti; Régner, Isabelle; Brouqui, Philippe; Gautret, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies in the past have stressed the importance of travelers' psychology and perception in the implementation of preventive measures. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the methodologies used in studies reporting on travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases. A systematic search for relevant literature was conducted according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. There were 39 studies identified. In 35 of 39 studies, the methodology used was that of a knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey based on questionnaires. One study used a combination of questionnaires and a visual psychometric measuring instrument called the 'pictorial representation of illness and self-measurement" or PRISM. One study used a self-representation model (SRM) method. Two studies measured psychosocial factors. Valuable information was obtained from KAP surveys showing an overall lack of knowledge among travelers about the most frequent travel-associated infections and associated preventive measures. This methodological approach however, is mainly descriptive, addressing knowledge, attitudes, and practices separately and lacking an examination of the interrelationships between these three components. Another limitation of the KAP method is underestimating psychosocial variables that have proved influential in health related behaviors, including perceived benefits and costs of preventive measures, perceived social pressure, perceived personal control, unrealistic optimism and risk propensity. Future risk perception studies in travel medicine should consider psychosocial variables with inferential and multivariate statistical analyses. The use of implicit measurements of attitudes could also provide new insights in the field of travelers' risk perception of travel-associated infectious diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. COMPLIANCE AS FACTORING BUSINESS RISK MANAGEMENT: CONTROL ASPECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.K. Makarovych

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Indetermination of modern economy conditions and the lack of theoretical knowledge gained by domestic scientists about risk in factoring business actualize the research concerning the methodology and technique of factoring companies’ risk management. The article examines compliance which is the technology innovative for Ukrainian market of factoring risk management technologies. It is determined that the compliance is the risk management process directed to free will correspondence to state, international legislation as well as to the ethics standards accepted in the field of regulated legal relations and to the traditions of business circulation to sustain the necessary regulations and standards of market behaviour, and to consolidate the image of a factoring company. Compliance risks should be understood as the risks of missed profit or losses caused by the conflicts of interests and the discrepancy of employees’ actions to internal and external standard documents. The attention is paid to the control over the compliance. The author singles out 3 kinds of the compliance control such as institutional, operational and the compliance control over the observance of conducting business professional ethics regulations which are necessary for providing of efficient management of factoring business risks. The paper shows the organizing process of factoring business compliance control (by the development of internal standard documents, a compliance program, the foundation of compliance control subdivision, monitoring of the risks cause the choice, made by management entities of a factoring company, of the management methods of risks for their business. The development of new and improvement of existed forms of compliance control organizing process help satisfy users’ information needs and requests of the risk management factoring company department. The suggestions proposed create the grounds for the transformation and improvement of factoring

  4. Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

    2015-04-01

    Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation

  5. 10 CFR 74.45 - Measurements and measurement control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Measurements and measurement control. 74.45 Section 74.45 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) MATERIAL CONTROL AND ACCOUNTING OF SPECIAL NUCLEAR MATERIAL Special Nuclear Material of Moderate Strategic Significance § 74.45 Measurements and measurement...

  6. Colon cancer controls versus population controls in case-control studies of occupational risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaerlev, Linda; Lynge, Elsebeth; Sabroe, Svend

    2004-01-01

    are interchangeable with the experience for population controls. Patient controls may even be preferable from population controls under certain conditions. In this study we examine if colon cancer patients can serve as surrogates for proper population controls in case-control studies of occupational risk factors...... about occupational, medical and life style conditions. RESULTS: No statistical significant difference for educational level, medical history or smoking status was seen between the two control groups. There was evidence of a higher alcohol intake, less frequent work as a farmer and less exposure...... to pesticides among colon cancer controls. CONCLUSIONS: Use of colon cancer controls may provide valid exposure estimates in studies of many occupational risk factors for cancer, but not for studies on exposure related to farming....

  7. Risk factors and potential preventive measures for nephropatia epidemica in Sweden 2011–2012: a case–control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alin Gherasim

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Nephropatia epidemica (NE, a relatively mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome caused by the Puumala virus (PUUV, is endemic in northern Sweden. We aim to study the risk factors associated with NE in this region. Methods: We conducted a matched case–control study between June 2011 and July 2012. We compared confirmed NE cases with randomly selected controls, matched by age, sex, and place of infection or residence. We analyzed the association between NE and several occupational, environmental, and behavioral exposures using conditional logistic regression. Results: We included in the final analysis 114 cases and 300 controls, forming 246 case–control pairs. Living in a house with an open space beneath, making house repairs, living less than 50 m from the forest, seeing rodents, and smoking were significantly associated with NE. Conclusion: Our results could orient public health policies targeting these risk factors and subsequently reduce the NE burden in the region.

  8. Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers how procedures can be used to control risks faced by an organization and proposes a means of recognizing if a particular procedure reduces risk or contributes to the organization's exposure. The proposed method was developed out of the review of work documents and the governing procedures performed in the wake of the Columbia accident by NASA and the Space Shuttle prime contractor, United Space Alliance, LLC. A technique was needed to understand the rules, or procedural controls, in place at the time in the context of how important the role of each rule was. The proposed method assesses procedural risks, the residual risk associated with a hazard after a procedure's influence is accounted for, by considering each clause of a procedure as a unique procedural control that may be beneficial or harmful. For procedural risks with consequences severe enough to threaten the survival of the organization, the method measures the characteristics of each risk on a scale that is an alternative to the traditional consequence/likelihood couple. The dual benefits of the substitute scales are that they eliminate both the need to quantify a relationship between different consequence types and the need for the extensive history a probabilistic risk assessment would require. Control Value is used as an analog for the consequence, where the value of a rule is based on how well the control reduces the severity of the consequence when operating successfully. This value is composed of two parts: the inevitability of the consequence in the absence of the control, and the opportunity to intervene before the consequence is realized. High value controls will be ones where there is minimal need for intervention but maximum opportunity to actively prevent the outcome. Failure Likelihood is used as the substitute for the conventional likelihood of the outcome. For procedural controls, a failure is considered to be any non-malicious violation of the rule, whether intended or

  9. Measuring your radon risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackmurdo, R.

    1994-01-01

    In its annual report for 1992/93, the NRPB has warned that tens of thousands of UK employees may be exposed to high levels of radon at work. In addition to those who work underground, employees at risk of radon-induced lung cancer are typically those who spend long periods indoors. This article reviews the implications for all employers especially those in low or unknown levels of radon who resist taking measurements in the belief that by not measuring, they are not liable. (UK)

  10. Combined Risk Measures: Representation Results and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Göttsche, O.E.

    2014-01-01

    The analysis and interpretation of risk play a crucial role in different areas of modern finance. This includes pricing of financial products, capital allocation and derivation of economic capital. Key to this analysis is the quantification of the risk via risk measures. A promising approach is to

  11. Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Balbás

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

  12. Critical Evaluation of the Linkage Between Tick-Based Risk Measures and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J.

    2018-01-01

    The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human–tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. PMID:27330093

  13. Mammographic density and risk of breast cancer by tumor characteristics: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Kavitha; Baglietto, Laura; Stone, Jennifer; McLean, Catriona; Southey, Melissa C; English, Dallas R; Giles, Graham G; Hopper, John L

    2017-12-16

    In a previous paper, we had assumed that the risk of screen-detected breast cancer mostly reflects inherent risk, and the risk of whether a breast cancer is interval versus screen-detected mostly reflects risk of masking. We found that inherent risk was predicted by body mass index (BMI) and dense area (DA) or percent dense area (PDA), but not by non-dense area (NDA). Masking, however, was best predicted by PDA but not BMI. In this study, we aimed to investigate if these associations vary by tumor characteristics and mode of detection. We conducted a case-control study nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study of 244 screen-detected cases matched to 700 controls and 148 interval cases matched to 446 controls. DA, NDA and PDA were measured using the Cumulus software. Tumor characteristics included size, grade, lymph node involvement, and ER, PR, and HER2 status. Conditional and unconditional logistic regression were applied as appropriate to estimate the Odds per Adjusted Standard Deviation (OPERA) adjusted for age and BMI, allowing the association with BMI to be a function of age at diagnosis. For screen-detected cancer, both DA and PDA were associated to an increased risk of tumors of large size (OPERA ~ 1.6) and positive lymph node involvement (OPERA ~ 1.8); no association was observed for BMI and NDA. For risk of interval versus screen-detected breast cancer, the association with risk for any of the three mammographic measures did not vary by tumor characteristics; an association was observed for BMI for positive lymph nodes (OPERA ~ 0.6). No associations were observed for tumor grade and ER, PR and HER2 status of tumor. Both DA and PDA were predictors of inherent risk of larger breast tumors and positive nodal status, whereas for each of the three mammographic density measures the association with risk of masking did not vary by tumor characteristics. This might raise the hypothesis that the risk of breast tumours with poorer prognosis

  14. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  15. Quality Risk Management: Putting GMP Controls First.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Kevin; Greene, Anne; Zwitkovits, Michael; Calnan, Nuala

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a practical way in which current approaches to quality risk management (QRM) may be improved, such that they better support qualification, validation programs, and change control proposals at manufacturing sites. The paper is focused on the treatment of good manufacturing practice (GMP) controls during QRM exercises. It specifically addresses why it is important to evaluate and classify such controls in terms of how they affect the severity, probability of occurrence, and detection ratings that may be assigned to potential failure modes or negative events. It also presents a QRM process that is designed to directly link the outputs of risk assessments and risk control activities with qualification and validation protocols in the GMP environment. This paper concerns the need for improvement in the use of risk-based principles and tools when working to ensure that the manufacturing processes used to produce medicines, and their related equipment, are appropriate. Manufacturing processes need to be validated (or proven) to demonstrate that they can produce a medicine of the required quality. The items of equipment used in such processes need to be qualified, in order to prove that they are fit for their intended use. Quality risk management (QRM) tools can be used to support such qualification and validation activities, but their use should be science-based and subject to as little subjectivity and uncertainty as possible. When changes are proposed to manufacturing processes, equipment, or related activities, they also need careful evaluation to ensure that any risks present are managed effectively. This paper presents a practical approach to how QRM may be improved so that it better supports qualification, validation programs, and change control proposals in a more scientific way. This improved approach is based on the treatment of what are called good manufacturing process (GMP) controls during those QRM exercises. A GMP control can be considered

  16. Mapping the receptivity of malaria risk to plan the future of control in Somalia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, Abdisalan Mohamed; Alegana, Victor Adagi; Patil, Anand Prabhakar; Moloney, Grainne; Borle, Mohammed; Yusuf, Fahmi; Amran, Jamal; Snow, Robert William

    2012-01-01

    To measure the receptive risks of malaria in Somalia and compare decisions on intervention scale-up based on this map and the more widely used contemporary risk maps. Cross-sectional community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data for the period 2007-2010 corrected to a standard age range of 2 to contemporary (2010) mean PfPR(2-10) and the maximum annual mean PfPR(2-10) (receptive) from the highest predicted PfPR(2-10) value over the study period as an estimate of receptivity. Randomly sampled communities in Somalia. Randomly sampled individuals of all ages. Cartographic descriptions of malaria receptivity and contemporary risks in Somalia at the district level. The contemporary annual PfPR(2-10) map estimated that all districts (n=74) and population (n=8.4 million) in Somalia were under hypoendemic transmission (≤10% PfPR(2-10)). Of these, 23% of the districts, home to 13% of the population, were under transmission of 10%-50% PfPR(2-10)) and the rest as hypoendemic. Compared with maps of receptive risks, contemporary maps of transmission mask disparities of malaria risk necessary to prioritise and sustain future control. As malaria risk declines across Africa, efforts must be invested in measuring receptivity for efficient control planning.

  17. Farmers' Risk Preferences in Rural China: Measurements and Determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jianjun; He, Rui; Gong, Haozhou; Xu, Xia; He, Chunyang

    2017-06-30

    This study measures farmers' risk attitudes in rural China using a survey instrument and a complementary experiment conducted in the field with the same sample of subjects. Using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks "in general", we found that the average response of our sample is slightly risk averse. Farmers' exogenous factors (age, gender, and height) and self-reported happiness have a significant impact on farmers' willingness to take risks. The experiment results show that approximately 44% of farmers in the study area are risk averse. We compare farmers' self-reported measures of risk preferences derived from the survey instrument to preferences elicited through the experimental task. Results show that answers to the general risk attitude question in the survey can predict farmers' behaviors in the experiment to a statistically significant degree. This paper can contribute to the empirical literature on comparing local farmers' risk attitudes across different risk preference measurement methods in the developing world.

  18. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  19. The moderating effect of control over work scheduling and overtime on the relationship between workload demands and perceived job risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Näswall, Katharina; Burt, Christopher D B; Pearce, Megan

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the impact of workload demands on perceived job risk using the Job Demand-Control model as a research framework. The primary objective was to test the hypothesis that employee control over work scheduling and overtime would moderate the relationship between workload demands and perceived job risk. Ninety-six participants working in a variety of industries completed measures of workload demands, and of control over work scheduling and overtime, and a measure of perceived job risk. Workload demands predicted higher perceptions of job risk. However, the results also suggest that control over overtime moderated this relationship, where those with the combination of high workload demands and low control over overtime reported higher levels of perceived risk. The results indicate that the JDC model is applicable to safety research. The results suggest that employee control over workload demands is an important variable to consider in terms of managing workplace safety. The present study also points to important areas for future research to explore in order to further understand the connection between demands and safety.

  20. Entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, Roger; Stadje, M.A.

    2010-01-01

    We introduce entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk and prove a collection of axiomatic characterization and duality results. We show in particular that entropy coherent and entropy convex measures of risk emerge as negative certainty equivalents in (the regular and a generalized

  1. Risk and Control Developments in Corporate Governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Claus; Laursen, Peter Birkholm

    2007-01-01

    Are the risk and control developments in corporate governance changing the role of the external auditor? This paper examines how the concepts of risk and control are incorporated in current corporate governance promulgations and analyses the implications for the role of the external auditor....... It is suggested that up till now the corporate governance debate has strengthened the position or role of the internal auditor in the advantage of the role of the external auditor. The promulgations have influenced the internal control mechanisms, and the control responsibilities have become more explicit....... Dominant determinants for the future role of the external auditor seem to be in conflict, namely the value adding function of the audit with an alignment of risk oriented efforts by the auditor and the company versus the notion of "back to basics". The external auditors ought to recognise that they must...

  2. Assessment of balance control in relation to fall risk among older people

    OpenAIRE

    Nordin, Ellinor

    2008-01-01

    Falls and their consequences among older people are a serious medical and public health problem. Identifying individuals at risk of falling is therefore a major concern. The purpose of this thesis was to evaluate measurement tools of balance control and their predictive value when screening for fall risk in physically dependent individuals ≥65 years old living in residential care facilities, and physically independent individuals ≥75 years old living in the community. Following baseline asses...

  3. Cumulative risk exposure moderates the association between parasympathetic reactivity and inhibitory control in preschool-age children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliano, Ryan J; Roos, Leslie E; Farrar, Jessica D; Skowron, Elizabeth A

    2018-04-01

    A child's cumulative risk for early exposure to stress has been linked to alterations of self-regulation outcomes, including neurobiological correlates of inhibitory control (IC). We examined whether children's ability to engage the parasympathetic nervous system impacts how risk affects IC. Children ages 3-5 years completed two laboratory measures of IC while respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) was measured, indexing parasympathetic activity. Children with greater risk demonstrated lower IC; risk also moderated associations between RSA reactivity and IC. For children with less risk, greater RSA withdrawal during IC tasks was associated with better IC. In contrast, greater risk was associated with poor IC, regardless of RSA withdrawal. Effects of risk were more pronounced for cumulative than individual measures. Results suggest that cumulative risk exposure disrupts connectivity between physiological and behavioral components of self-regulation in early childhood. Parasympathetic withdrawal to cognitive tasks may be less relevant for performance in developmental samples experiencing greater life stress. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Profit and Risk Measures in Oil Production Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea; Foss, Bjarne; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2015-01-01

    In oil production optimization, we usually aim to maximize a deterministic scalar performance index such as the profit over the expected reservoir lifespan. However, when uncertainty in the parameters is considered, the profit results in a random variable that can assume a range of values dependi...... pro and cons for each of them. Finally, among the presented risk measures, we identify two of them as appropriate risk measures when minimizing the risk....

  5. Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ebert, S.; Wiesen, D.

    Risk aversion—but also the higher-order risk preferences of prudence and temperance—are fundamental concepts in the study of economic decision making. We propose a method to jointly measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Our theoretical approach is to define risk

  6. On risk measures and decisions in insurance and finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

  7. Radon in indoor air. Health risk, measurement methods and remedial measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strand, T.

    1996-02-01

    Radon in indoor air is the main source of ionizing radiation in Norway. The booklet contains a presentation of radon sources, measurement methods, indoor radon concentrations, action levels, health risk and remedial measures

  8. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead

  9. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead.

  10. The effect of tobacco control measures during a period of rising cardiovascular disease risk in India: a mathematical model of myocardial infarction and stroke.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Basu

    Full Text Available We simulated tobacco control and pharmacological strategies for preventing cardiovascular deaths in India, the country that is expected to experience more cardiovascular deaths than any other over the next decade.A microsimulation model was developed to quantify the differential effects of various tobacco control measures and pharmacological therapies on myocardial infarction and stroke deaths stratified by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2013 to 2022. The model incorporated population-representative data from India on multiple risk factors that affect myocardial infarction and stroke mortality, including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease. We also included data from India on cigarette smoking, bidi smoking, chewing tobacco, and secondhand smoke. According to the model's results, smoke-free legislation and tobacco taxation would likely be the most effective strategy among a menu of tobacco control strategies (including, as well, brief cessation advice by health care providers, mass media campaigns, and an advertising ban for reducing myocardial infarction and stroke deaths over the next decade, while cessation advice would be expected to be the least effective strategy at the population level. In combination, these tobacco control interventions could avert 25% of myocardial infarctions and strokes (95% CI: 17%-34% if the effects of the interventions are additive. These effects are substantially larger than would be achieved through aspirin, antihypertensive, and statin therapy under most scenarios, because of limited treatment access and adherence; nevertheless, the impacts of tobacco control policies and pharmacological interventions appear to be markedly synergistic, averting up to one-third of deaths from myocardial infarction and stroke among 20- to 79-y-olds over the next 10 y. Pharmacological therapies could also be considerably more potent with further health system

  11. The effect of tobacco control measures during a period of rising cardiovascular disease risk in India: a mathematical model of myocardial infarction and stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Sanjay; Glantz, Stanton; Bitton, Asaf; Millett, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    We simulated tobacco control and pharmacological strategies for preventing cardiovascular deaths in India, the country that is expected to experience more cardiovascular deaths than any other over the next decade. A microsimulation model was developed to quantify the differential effects of various tobacco control measures and pharmacological therapies on myocardial infarction and stroke deaths stratified by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2013 to 2022. The model incorporated population-representative data from India on multiple risk factors that affect myocardial infarction and stroke mortality, including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease. We also included data from India on cigarette smoking, bidi smoking, chewing tobacco, and secondhand smoke. According to the model's results, smoke-free legislation and tobacco taxation would likely be the most effective strategy among a menu of tobacco control strategies (including, as well, brief cessation advice by health care providers, mass media campaigns, and an advertising ban) for reducing myocardial infarction and stroke deaths over the next decade, while cessation advice would be expected to be the least effective strategy at the population level. In combination, these tobacco control interventions could avert 25% of myocardial infarctions and strokes (95% CI: 17%-34%) if the effects of the interventions are additive. These effects are substantially larger than would be achieved through aspirin, antihypertensive, and statin therapy under most scenarios, because of limited treatment access and adherence; nevertheless, the impacts of tobacco control policies and pharmacological interventions appear to be markedly synergistic, averting up to one-third of deaths from myocardial infarction and stroke among 20- to 79-y-olds over the next 10 y. Pharmacological therapies could also be considerably more potent with further health system improvements. Smoke

  12. Measurement control workshop instructional materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Harvel, Charles [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Clark, John [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gregg Protection Services, Lynchburg, VA (United States)

    2012-09-01

    An essential element in an effective nuclear materials control and accountability (MC&A) program is the measurement of the nuclear material as it is received, moved, processed and shipped. Quality measurement systems and methodologies determine the accuracy of the accountability values. Implementation of a measurement control program is essential to ensure that the measurement systems and methodologies perform as expected. A measurement control program also allows for a determination of the level of confidence in the accounting values.

  13. Measurement control workshop instructional materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Harvel, Charles [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Clark, John [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gregg Protection Services, Lynchburg, VA (United States)

    2011-12-01

    An essential element in an effective nuclear materials control and accountability (MC&A) program is the measurement of the nuclear material as it is received, moved, processed and shipped. Quality measurement systems and methodologies determine the accuracy of the accountability values. Implementation of a measurement control program is essential to ensure that the measurement systems and methodologies perform as expected. A measurement control program also allows for a determination of the level of confidence in the ac counting values.

  14. The New Friends Vignettes: Measuring Parental Psychological Control that Confers Risk for Anxious Adjustment in Preschoolers

    Science.gov (United States)

    McShane, Kelly E.; Hastings, Paul D.

    2009-01-01

    This investigation examined the links between preschoolers' internalizing problems and anxiety-related social difficulties and two aspects of maternal and paternal psychological control: overprotection and critical control. Some 115 mothers and 92 fathers completed the New Friends Vignettes (NFV), a new measure of psychological control and…

  15. Risk measures on networks and expected utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerqueti, Roy; Lupi, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    In reliability theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. In this paper we elaborate on the concept of risk acceptance, and propose a theoretical framework based on network theory. In doing this, we deal with system reliability, where the interconnections among the random quantities involved in the decision process are explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, we explore the conditions to be satisfied for risk-acceptance criteria to be consistent with the axiomatization of standard expected utility theory within the network framework. In accordance with existing literature, we show that a risk evaluation criterion can be meaningful even if it is not consistent with the standard axiomatization of expected utility, once this is suitably reinterpreted in the light of networks. Finally, we provide some illustrative examples. - Highlights: • We discuss risk acceptance and theoretically develop this theme on the basis of network theory. • We propose an original framework for describing the algebraic structure of the set of the networks, when they are viewed as risks. • We introduce the risk measures on networks, which induce total orders on the set of networks. • We state conditions on the risk measures on networks to let the induced risk-acceptance criterion be consistent with a new formulation of the expected utility theory.

  16. Assessment and Control of Spacecraft Charging Risks on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koontz, Steve; Valentine, Mark; Keeping, Thomas; Edeen, Marybeth; Spetch, William; Dalton, Penni

    2004-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) operates in the F2 region of Earth's ionosphere, orbiting at altitudes ranging from 350 to 450 km at an inclination of 51.6 degrees. The relatively dense, cool F2 ionospheric plasma suppresses surface charging processes much of the time, and the flux of relativistic electrons is low enough to preclude deep dielectric charging processes. The most important spacecraft charging processes in the ISS orbital environment are: 1) ISS electrical power system interactions with the F2 plasma, 2) magnetic induction processes resulting from flight through the geomagnetic field and, 3) charging processes that result from interaction with auroral electrons at high latitude. Recently, the continuing review and evaluation of putative ISS charging hazards required by the ISS Program Office revealed that ISS charging could produce an electrical shock hazard to the ISS crew during extravehicular activity (EVA). ISS charging risks are being evaluated in an ongoing measurement and analysis campaign. The results of ISS charging measurements are combined with a recently developed model of ISS charging (the Plasma Interaction Model) and an exhaustive analysis of historical ionospheric variability data (ISS Ionospheric Specification) to evaluate ISS charging risks using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods. The PRA combines estimates of the frequency of occurrence and severity of the charging hazards with estimates of the reliability of various hazard controls systems, as required by NASA s safety and risk management programs, to enable design and selection of a hazard control approach that minimizes overall programmatic and personnel risk. The PRA provides a quantitative methodology for incorporating the results of the ISS charging measurement and analysis campaigns into the necessary hazard reports, EVA procedures, and ISS flight rules required for operating ISS in a safe and productive manner.

  17. Managerial Risk Accounting and Control – A German perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Winter, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Recent developments have sparked a renewed interest concerning risk related topics in nonfinancial companies. Risk management issues directly touch the domain of management accounting and control. In Germany, topics related to the support of corporate or enterprise risk management are commonly discussed under the label of “Risikocontrolling”, which will be translated as Managerial Risk Accounting and Control. However, the conceptual foundation of a risk oriented management accounting respecti...

  18. Effect of balance training on postural balance control and risk of fall in children with diplegic cerebral palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Shamy, Shamekh Mohamed; Abd El Kafy, Ehab Mohamed

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of balance training on postural control and fall risk in children with diplegic cerebral palsy. Thirty spastic diplegic cerebral palsied children (10-12 years) were included in this study. Children were randomly assigned into two equal-sized groups: control and study groups. Participants in both groups received a traditional physical therapy exercise program. The study group additionally received balance training on the Biodex balance system. Treatment was provided 30 min/d, 3 d/week for 3 successive months. To evaluate the limit of stability and fall risk, participated children received baseline and post-treatment assessments using the Biodex balance system. Overall directional control, total time to complete the test, overall stability index of the fall risk test and total score of the pediatric balance scale were measured. Children in both groups showed significant improvements in the mean values of all measured variables post-treatment (p control group (p postural balance control in children with diplegic cerebral palsy.

  19. The effect of different cardiovascular risk presentation formats on intentions, understanding and emotional affect: a randomised controlled trial using a web-based risk formatter (protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Newcombe Robert

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The future risk of heart disease can be predicted with increasing precision. However, more research is needed into how this risk is conveyed and presented. The aim of this study is to compare the effects of presenting cardiovascular risk in different formats on individuals' intention to change behaviour to reduce risk, understanding of risk information and emotional affect. Methods/design A randomised controlled trial comprising four arms, with a between subjects design will be performed. There will be two intervention groups and two control groups. The first control comprises a pre-intervention questionnaire and presents risk in a bar graph format. The second control presents risk in a bar graph format without pre-intervention questionnaire. These two control groups are to account for the potential Hawthorne effect of thinking about cardiovascular risk before viewing actual risk. The two intervention groups comprise presenting risk in either a pictogram or metonym format (image depicting seriousness of having a myocardial infarction. 800 individuals' aged between 45 and 64 years, who have not been previously diagnosed with heart disease and have access to a computer with internet, will be given a link to a website comprising a risk calculator and electronic questionnaires. 10-year risk of having a coronary heart disease event will be assessed and presented in one of the three formats. A post-intervention questionnaire will be completed after viewing the risk format. Main outcome measures are (i intention to change behaviour, (ii understanding of risk information, (iii emotional affect and (iv worry about future heart disease. Secondary outcomes are the sub-components of the theory of planned behaviour: attitudes, perceived behavioural control and subjective norms. Discussion Having reviewed the literature, we are not aware of any other studies which have used the assessment of actual risk, in a trial to compare different

  20. [High-grade pressure sores in frail older high-risk persons. A retrospective postmortem case-control-study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Renteln-Kruse, W; Krause, T; Anders, J; Kühl, M; Heinemann, A; Püschel, K

    2004-04-01

    Some old persons at risk do develop, but others, at comparable risk, do not develop high-grade pressure sores. To evaluate potentially different risk factors, we performed a post mortem case-control study in old persons who developed high-grade pressure sores within six months until 14 days before death. Consecutive cases with pressure sores grade >/=3 and potential controls at comparably high risk for pressure sores were examined before cremation. After written informed consent had been obtained by the next relatives, all available nursing and medical records of the deceased were thoroughly evaluated. Cases and controls were matched according to age, gender, immobility, and cachexia.A total of 100 cases with 71 pressure sores grade 3 and 29 pressure sores grade 4 were compared to 100 controls with 27 pressure sores grade pressure sores in frail older high-risk persons. Sedative drug effects and impaired patient compliance with preventive and therapeutic measures may also be associated with the development of high-grade pressure sores in old persons at high risk.

  1. Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verbeke Sven

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

  2. Auditing measurement control programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, F.P.; Brouns, R.J.

    1979-10-01

    Requirements and a general procedure for auditing measurement control programs used in special nuclear material accounting are discussed. The areas of measurement control that need to be examined are discussed and a suggested checklist is included to assist in the preparation and performance of the audit

  3. Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

    2016-11-01

    Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

  4. [Health risks from pest control products].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieper, C; Holthenrich, D; Schneider, H

    2014-05-01

    According to European biocide legislation, pest control products require assessment and authorization by the responsible national or European authorities. Biocidal products can only be authorized if they have no unacceptable effects on human health. The health risk assessment performed for authorization comprises (a) the derivation of reference values for the active substances and substances of concern contained in the biocidal product and (b) an exposure assessment. These parameters are required for risk characterization. No unacceptable health risks are expected if the determined exposure is less than the relevant reference value. In addition, the toxicological information is used for classification of the biocidal product. The assessment may, where necessary, result in specific conditions for use or other restrictions aimed at minimizing risk. The risk to human health from pest control products is mainly based on the toxicological properties of their active substances. Commonly, the coformulants used in pest control products are of less concern than the active substances (e.g., food ingredients and animal feed products). For example, most rodenticides belong to the group of anticoagulants, which are also effective in humans. Regarding intoxications through insecticides, the group of pyrethroids is of particular importance. Fumigants containing metal phosphides, hydrogen cyanide, or sulfuryl difluoride are particularly toxic. This toxicity is linked to the high acute inhalation toxicity of the gaseous active substances themselves or, in the case of phosphides, of the released gas phosphane. The aim of health risk assessment for the authorization of biocidal products is to ensure their safe application for users and all other persons involved, assuming an adequate and label-compliant use.

  5. Predictability of cardiovascular risks by psychological measures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šolcová, Iva; Kebza, V.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 1 (2008), s. 241-241 ISSN 0887-0446 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA406/06/0747 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : CVD risks * psychological measures * physiological risks Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

  6. Risk-sensitive optimal feedback control accounts for sensorimotor behavior under uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arne J Nagengast

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Many aspects of human motor behavior can be understood using optimality principles such as optimal feedback control. However, these proposed optimal control models are risk-neutral; that is, they are indifferent to the variability of the movement cost. Here, we propose the use of a risk-sensitive optimal controller that incorporates movement cost variance either as an added cost (risk-averse controller or as an added value (risk-seeking controller to model human motor behavior in the face of uncertainty. We use a sensorimotor task to test the hypothesis that subjects are risk-sensitive. Subjects controlled a virtual ball undergoing Brownian motion towards a target. Subjects were required to minimize an explicit cost, in points, that was a combination of the final positional error of the ball and the integrated control cost. By testing subjects on different levels of Brownian motion noise and relative weighting of the position and control cost, we could distinguish between risk-sensitive and risk-neutral control. We show that subjects change their movement strategy pessimistically in the face of increased uncertainty in accord with the predictions of a risk-averse optimal controller. Our results suggest that risk-sensitivity is a fundamental attribute that needs to be incorporated into optimal feedback control models.

  7. A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chenarani

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.

  8. A comparison of five methods of measuring mammographic density: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astley, Susan M; Harkness, Elaine F; Sergeant, Jamie C; Warwick, Jane; Stavrinos, Paula; Warren, Ruth; Wilson, Mary; Beetles, Ursula; Gadde, Soujanya; Lim, Yit; Jain, Anil; Bundred, Sara; Barr, Nicola; Reece, Valerie; Brentnall, Adam R; Cuzick, Jack; Howell, Tony; Evans, D Gareth

    2018-02-05

    High mammographic density is associated with both risk of cancers being missed at mammography, and increased risk of developing breast cancer. Stratification of breast cancer prevention and screening requires mammographic density measures predictive of cancer. This study compares five mammographic density measures to determine the association with subsequent diagnosis of breast cancer and the presence of breast cancer at screening. Women participating in the "Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening" (PROCAS) study, a study of cancer risk, completed questionnaires to provide personal information to enable computation of the Tyrer-Cuzick risk score. Mammographic density was assessed by visual analogue scale (VAS), thresholding (Cumulus) and fully-automated methods (Densitas, Quantra, Volpara) in contralateral breasts of 366 women with unilateral breast cancer (cases) detected at screening on entry to the study (Cumulus 311/366) and in 338 women with cancer detected subsequently. Three controls per case were matched using age, body mass index category, hormone replacement therapy use and menopausal status. Odds ratios (OR) between the highest and lowest quintile, based on the density distribution in controls, for each density measure were estimated by conditional logistic regression, adjusting for classic risk factors. The strongest predictor of screen-detected cancer at study entry was VAS, OR 4.37 (95% CI 2.72-7.03) in the highest vs lowest quintile of percent density after adjustment for classical risk factors. Volpara, Densitas and Cumulus gave ORs for the highest vs lowest quintile of 2.42 (95% CI 1.56-3.78), 2.17 (95% CI 1.41-3.33) and 2.12 (95% CI 1.30-3.45), respectively. Quantra was not significantly associated with breast cancer (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.67-1.54). Similar results were found for subsequent cancers, with ORs of 4.48 (95% CI 2.79-7.18), 2.87 (95% CI 1.77-4.64) and 2.34 (95% CI 1.50-3.68) in highest vs lowest quintiles of VAS, Volpara and Densitas

  9. Temperature measurement and control

    CERN Document Server

    Leigh, JR

    1988-01-01

    This book treats the theory and practice of temperature measurement and control and important related topics such as energy management and air pollution. There are no specific prerequisites for the book although a knowledge of elementary control theory could be useful. The first half of the book is an application oriented survey of temperature measurement techniques and devices. The second half is concerned mainly with temperature control in both simple and complex situations.

  10. Dopamine agonists and risk: impulse control disorders in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voon, Valerie; Gao, Jennifer; Brezing, Christina; Symmonds, Mkael; Ekanayake, Vindhya; Fernandez, Hubert; Dolan, Raymond J; Hallett, Mark

    2011-05-01

    Impulse control disorders are common in Parkinson's disease, occurring in 13.6% of patients. Using a pharmacological manipulation and a novel risk taking task while performing functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the relationship between dopamine agonists and risk taking in patients with Parkinson's disease with and without impulse control disorders. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, subjects chose between two choices of equal expected value: a 'Sure' choice and a 'Gamble' choice of moderate risk. To commence each trial, in the 'Gain' condition, individuals started at $0 and in the 'Loss' condition individuals started at -$50 below the 'Sure' amount. The difference between the maximum and minimum outcomes from each gamble (i.e. range) was used as an index of risk ('Gamble Risk'). Sixteen healthy volunteers were behaviourally tested. Fourteen impulse control disorder (problem gambling or compulsive shopping) and 14 matched Parkinson's disease controls were tested ON and OFF dopamine agonists. Patients with impulse control disorder made more risky choices in the 'Gain' relative to the 'Loss' condition along with decreased orbitofrontal cortex and anterior cingulate activity, with the opposite observed in Parkinson's disease controls. In patients with impulse control disorder, dopamine agonists were associated with enhanced sensitivity to risk along with decreased ventral striatal activity again with the opposite in Parkinson's disease controls. Patients with impulse control disorder appear to have a bias towards risky choices independent of the effect of loss aversion. Dopamine agonists enhance sensitivity to risk in patients with impulse control disorder possibly by impairing risk evaluation in the striatum. Our results provide a potential explanation of why dopamine agonists may lead to an unconscious bias towards risk in susceptible individuals.

  11. Efficacy of internal control and controlling business risks

    OpenAIRE

    IONESCU, Luminiţa

    2010-01-01

    Companies can gain additional efficiency in designing and implementing or assessing internal control by focusing on only those financial reporting objectives directly applicable to the company’s activities and circumstances, taking a risk based approach to internal control. It is important for any organization to have reliable financial data for internal decision-making purpose. Financial information is often useful in many internal decisions such as product or service pricing. This is why th...

  12. A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

    2018-01-01

    One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality

  13. Infectious diseases following natural disasters: prevention and control measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouadio, Isidore K; Aljunid, Syed; Kamigaki, Taro; Hammad, Karen; Oshitani, Hitoshi

    2012-01-01

    Natural disasters may lead to infectious disease outbreaks when they result in substantial population displacement and exacerbate synergic risk factors (change in the environment, in human conditions and in the vulnerability to existing pathogens) for disease transmission. We reviewed risk factors and potential infectious diseases resulting from prolonged secondary effects of major natural disasters that occurred from 2000 to 2011. Natural disasters including floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, tropical cyclones (e.g., hurricanes and typhoons) and tornadoes have been secondarily described with the following infectious diseases including diarrheal diseases, acute respiratory infections, malaria, leptospirosis, measles, dengue fever, viral hepatitis, typhoid fever, meningitis, as well as tetanus and cutaneous mucormycosis. Risk assessment is essential in post-disaster situations and the rapid implementation of control measures through re-establishment and improvement of primary healthcare delivery should be given high priority, especially in the absence of pre-disaster surveillance data.

  14. Examining Measures of Weight as Risk Factors for Sport-Related Injury in Adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Richmond, Sarah A.; Nettel-Aguirre, Alberto; Doyle-Baker, Patricia K.; Macpherson, Alison; Emery, Carolyn A.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To examine body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) as risk factors for sport injury in adolescents. Design. A secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial. Methods. Adolescents (n = 1,040) at the ages of 11?15 years from two Calgary junior high schools were included. BMI (kg/m2) and WC (cm) were measured from direct measures at baseline assessment. Categories (overweight/obese) were created using validated internati...

  15. Posture control and the risk of industrial accident: a stabilographic investigation in a naval shipyard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moll van Charante, A W; Snijders, C J; Mulder, P G

    1991-10-01

    In a previous case-control study on the effect of impaired perceptual acuity on the risk of industrial injuries at a naval shipyard, three factors which might influence the perception and processing of sensory impressions--alcohol consumption, hearing loss exceeding 20 decibels (dB) and exposure to noise exceeding 82 dB(A)--were found to contribute to the risk of injury. According to recent reports, these factors can all lead to impaired posture control. Because in general about 40% of all accidents are associated with falling, tripping, slipping and the like, a supplementary study has been carried out to unravel possible confounding effects of posture control on these three risk factors. Cases (who had suffered two or more accidents during the preceding 4 years) and controls (who had been accident-free in the same period) were compared as regards posture control measured during silence or noise. No significant difference in posture control was found between cases and controls, either in silence or during exposure to heavy noise.

  16. Improved process control, lowered costs and reduced risks through the use of non-destructive mobility and sheet carrier density measurements on GaAs and GaN wafers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, D.; Hogan, K.; Blew, A.; Cordes, M.

    2004-12-01

    Improved process control, lowered costs and reduced risks can be realized through the use of non-destructive mobility and sheet charge density measurements during the fabrication of GaAs and GaN wafers. The results from this microwave-based technique are shown to agree with destructive van der Pauw Hall testing results to within ±5%. In addition, it has the ability to map wafer uniformity and provide separated 2DEG data for thick cap or multi-layered structures. As a result, this technique provides an efficient and cost-effective alternative to current process control metrology methods, while providing the user with important process control data.

  17. Control measurement system in purex process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mani, V.V.S.

    1985-01-01

    The dependence of a bulk facility handling Purex Process on the control measurement system for evaluating the process performance needs hardly be emphasized. process control, Plant control, inventory control and quality control are the four components of the control measurement system. The scope and requirements of each component are different and the measurement methods are selected accordingly. However, each measurement system has six important elements. These are described in detail. The quality assurance programme carried out by the laboratory as a mechanism through which the quality of measurements is regularly tested and stated in quantitative terms is also explained in terms of internal and external quality assurance, with examples. Suggestions for making the control measurement system more responsive to the operational needs in future are also briefly discussed. (author)

  18. Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

    OpenAIRE

    Loebnitz, K.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenario analyses. In this thesis we present a more rigorous framework that allows us to measure a bank's liquidity risk within the standard economic capital and RAROC setting. In particular, we introduc...

  19. Do measures of reactive balance control predict falls in people with stroke returning to the community?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, A; Wong, J S; McIlroy, W E; Biasin, L; Brunton, K; Bayley, M; Inness, E L

    2015-12-01

    To determine if reactive balance control measures predict falls after discharge from stroke rehabilitation. Prospective cohort study. Rehabilitation hospital and community. Independently ambulatory individuals with stroke who were discharged home after inpatient rehabilitation (n=95). Balance and gait measures were obtained from a clinical assessment at discharge from inpatient stroke rehabilitation. Measures of reactive balance control were obtained: (1) during quiet standing; (2) when walking; and (3) in response to large postural perturbations. Participants reported falls and activity levels up to 6 months post-discharge. Logistic and Poisson regressions were used to identify measures of reactive balance control that were related to falls post-discharge. Decreased paretic limb contribution to standing balance control [rate ratio 0.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7 to 1.0; P=0.011], reduced between-limb synchronisation of quiet standing balance control (rate ratio 0.9, 95% CI 0.8 to 0.9; Pfall rates when controlling for age, stroke severity, functional balance and daily walking activity. Impaired reactive balance control in standing and walking predicted increased risk of falls post-discharge from stroke rehabilitation. Specifically, measures that revealed the capacity of both limbs to respond to instability were related to increased risk of falls. These results suggest that post-stroke rehabilitation strategies for falls prevention should train responses to instability, and focus on remediating dyscontrol in the more-affected limb. Copyright © 2015 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper; Belsky, Daniel W; Danese, Andrea; Harrington, HonaLee; Houts, Renate M; Poulton, Richie; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Caspi, Avshalom

    2018-05-09

    Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP). Participants with available plasma samples at age 38 were included (N = 837, 50.5% male). suPAR (mean 2.40 ng/ml; SD 0.91) was positively correlated with hsCRP (r 0.15, p childhood risks were aggregated into a Cumulative Childhood Risk index, and controlling for sex, BMI, and smoking, Cumulative Childhood Risk was associated with higher suPAR (b 0.10; SE 0.03; p = .002). Cumulative Childhood Risk predicted elevated suPAR, after controlling for hsCRP (b 0.18; SE 0.03; p childhood risk factors was associated with higher suPAR levels, independent of CRP. suPAR is a useful addition to studies connecting childhood risk to adult inflammatory burden. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  1. Control beliefs and risk for 4-year mortality in older adults: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan-Porter, Wei; Hastings, Susan Nicole; Neelon, Brian; Van Houtven, Courtney Harold

    2017-01-11

    Control beliefs are important psychological factors that likely contribute to heterogeneity in health outcomes for older adults. We evaluated whether control beliefs are associated with risk for 4-year mortality, after accounting for established "classic" biomedical risk factors. We also determined if an enhanced risk model with control beliefs improved identification of individuals with low vs. high mortality risk. We used nationally representative data from the Health and Retirement Study (2006-2012) for adults 50 years or older in 2006 (n = 7313) or 2008 (n = 6301). We assessed baseline perceived global control (measured as 2 dimensions-"constraints" and "mastery"), and health-specific control. We also obtained baseline data for 12 established biomedical risk factors of 4-year mortality: age, sex, 4 medical conditions (diabetes mellitus, cancer, lung disease and heart failure), body mass index less than 25 kg/m 2 , smoking, and 4 functional difficulties (with bathing, managing finances, walking several blocks and pushing or pulling heavy objects). Deaths within 4 years of follow-up were determined through interviews with respondents' family and the National Death Index. After accounting for classic biomedical risk factors, perceived constraints were significantly associated with higher mortality risk (third quartile scores odds ratio [OR] 1.37, 95% CI 1.03-1.81; fourth quartile scores OR 1.45, 95% CI, 1.09-1.92), while health-specific control was significantly associated with lower risk (OR 0.69-0.78 for scores above first quartile). Higher perceived mastery scores were not consistently associated with decreased risk. The enhanced model with control beliefs found an additional 3.5% of participants (n = 222) with low predicted risk of 4-year mortality (i.e., 4% or less); observed mortality for these individuals was 1.8% during follow-up. Compared with participants predicted to have low mortality risk only by the classic biomedical model

  2. On set-valued functionals: Multivariate risk measures and Aumann integrals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ararat, Cagin

    In this dissertation, multivariate risk measures for random vectors and Aumann integrals of set-valued functions are studied. Both are set-valued functionals with values in a complete lattice of subsets of Rm. Multivariate risk measures are considered in a general d-asset financial market with trading opportunities in discrete time. Specifically, the following features of the market are incorporated in the evaluation of multivariate risk: convex transaction costs modeled by solvency regions, intermediate trading constraints modeled by convex random sets, and the requirement of liquidation into the first m ≤ d of the assets. It is assumed that the investor has a "pure" multivariate risk measure R on the space of m-dimensional random vectors which represents her risk attitude towards the assets but does not take into account the frictions of the market. Then, the investor with a d-dimensional position minimizes the set-valued functional R over all m-dimensional positions that she can reach by trading in the market subject to the frictions described above. The resulting functional Rmar on the space of d-dimensional random vectors is another multivariate risk measure, called the market-extension of R. A dual representation for R mar that decomposes the effects of R and the frictions of the market is proved. Next, multivariate risk measures are studied in a utility-based framework. It is assumed that the investor has a complete risk preference towards each individual asset, which can be represented by a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Then, an incomplete preference is considered for multivariate positions which is represented by the vector of the individual utility functions. Under this structure, multivariate shortfall and divergence risk measures are defined as the optimal values of set minimization problems. The dual relationship between the two classes of multivariate risk measures is constructed via a recent Lagrange duality for set optimization. In

  3. Sex differences in behavioral impulsivity in at-risk and non-risk drinkers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica eWeafer

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Mounting evidence from both animal and human studies suggests that females are more vulnerable to drug and alcohol abuse than males. Some of this increased risk may be related to behavioral traits, such as impulsivity. Here we examined sex differences in two forms of behavioral impulsivity (inhibitory control and impulsive choice in young men and women, in relation to their level of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems (at-risk or non-risk. Methods: Participants performed a go/no-go task to assess inhibitory control and a measure of delay discounting to assess impulsive choice. Results: On the measure of inhibitory control, at-risk women committed significantly more inhibitory errors than at-risk men, indicating poorer behavioral control among the women. By contrast, no sex differences were observed between at-risk men and women in delay discounting, or between the male and female non-risk drinkers on any measure. Conclusion: Heavy drinking women displayed poorer inhibitory control than heavy drinking men. It remains to be determined whether the sex differences in inhibitory control are the result of drinking, or whether they pre-dated the problematic drinking in these individuals.

  4. The Basel II Accord on Measuring and Managing a Bank's Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The abundance of risk metrics stems from the effort to measure the difference between the expected and actual returns, under a hypothesis of normality. Under the assumption of risk aversion, investors are likely to quantify risk using metrics which measure returns lower than the expected average. These include the semi-variance of returns smaller than the average, the risk of loss – a return under a chosen level, usually 0%, and value-at-risk, for the greatest losses, with a probability of less than 1-5% in a given period of time. The Basel II accord improves on the way risks are measured, by allowing banks greater flexibility. There is an increase in the complexity of measuring credit risks, the market risks measurement methods remain the same, and the measurement of operational risk is introduced for the first time. The most advanced (and widely-used risk metrics are based on VaR. However, it must be noted that VaR calculations are statistical, and therefore unlikely to forecast extraordinary events. So the quality of a VaR calculation must be checked using back-testing, and if the VaR value fails in a percentage of 1-5% of the cases, then the premises of the model must be changed.

  5. Properties of Risk Measures of Generalized Entropy in Portfolio Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongxi Zhou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper systematically investigates the properties of six kinds of entropy-based risk measures: Information Entropy and Cumulative Residual Entropy in the probability space, Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy and Sine Entropy in the fuzzy space, and Hybrid Entropy in the hybridized uncertainty of both fuzziness and randomness. We discover that none of the risk measures satisfy all six of the following properties, which various scholars have associated with effective risk measures: Monotonicity, Translation Invariance, Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency and Convexity. Measures based on Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy, and Sine Entropy all exhibit the same properties: Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency, and Convexity. These measures based on Information Entropy and Hybrid Entropy, meanwhile, only exhibit Sub-additivity and Consistency. Cumulative Residual Entropy satisfies just Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, and Convexity. After identifying these properties, we develop seven portfolio models based on different risk measures and made empirical comparisons using samples from both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China and the New York Stock Exchange of America. The comparisons show that the Mean Fuzzy Entropy Model performs the best among the seven models with respect to both daily returns and relative cumulative returns. Overall, these results could provide an important reference for both constructing effective risk measures and rationally selecting the appropriate risk measure under different portfolio selection conditions.

  6. Healthcare workers' challenges in the implementation of tuberculosis infection prevention and control measures in Mozambique

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, Miranda; Coelho, Eliana; Mosse, Carla das Dores; Brondi, Luciana; Winterton, Laura; van Leth, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Healthcare Workers (HCWs) have a higher frequency of TB exposure than the general population and have therefore an occupational TB risk that infection prevention and control (IPC) measures aim to reduce. HCWs are crucial in the implementation of these measures. The objective of the study was to

  7. Use of importance measures in risk-informed regulatory applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheok, Michael C.; Parry, Gareth W.; Sherry, Richard R.

    1998-01-01

    The use of importance measures to analyze PRA results is discussed. Commonly used importance measures are defined. Some issues that have been identified as potentially limiting their usefulness are addressed, namely: there is no simple relationship between importance measures evaluated at the single component level and those evaluated at the level of a group of components, and, as a result, some of the commonly used importance measures are not realistic measures of the sensitivity of the overall risk to parameter value changes; and, importance measures do not typically take into account parameter uncertainties which raises the question of the robustness of conclusions drawn from importance analyses. The issues are explored in the context of both ranking and categorization of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) with respect to risk-significance and safety-significance for use in risk-informed regulatory analyses

  8. Safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murani, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper dealt with the safety measure S 05 'Sump clogging risk'. Problem specification contains: (1) to determine the effective strainer surface needed to be available in order to assure sufficient coolant volumes for a reliable operation of emergency systems; (2) to determine quantity and structure of insulation material which can be dislodged and can induce strained clogging; (3) to verify properties of insulation material with regard to its thermal degradation as a result of a long-term reactor unit operation; (4) to design and erect strainers so to assure sufficient congestion of emergency pump intake lines in post-accident regimes; (5) to design seismically resistant strainers with a capability to resist dynamic impacts from adjacent piping; (6) to assure monitoring of the strainer condition in real time with signals sent to the main control room

  9. Risk-Sensitive Control with Near Monotone Cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biswas, Anup; Borkar, V. S.; Suresh Kumar, K.

    2010-01-01

    The infinite horizon risk-sensitive control problem for non-degenerate controlled diffusions is analyzed under a 'near monotonicity' condition on the running cost that penalizes large excursions of the process.

  10. Potential sources of bias in the use of Escherichia coli to measure waterborne diarrhoea risk in low-income settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercumen, Ayse; Arnold, Benjamin F; Naser, Abu Mohd; Unicomb, Leanne; Colford, John M; Luby, Stephen P

    2017-01-01

    Escherichia coli is the standard water quality indicator for diarrhoea risk. Yet, the association between E. coli and diarrhoea is inconsistent across studies without a systematic assessment of methodological differences behind this variation. Most studies measure water quality cross-sectionally with diarrhoea, risking exposure misclassification and reverse causation. Studies use different recall windows for self-reported diarrhoea; longer periods increase potential outcome misclassification through misrecall. Control of confounding is inconsistent across studies. Additionally, diarrhoea measured in unblinded intervention trials can present courtesy bias. We utilised measurements from a randomised trial of water interventions in Bangladesh to assess how these factors affect the E. coli-diarrhoea association. We compared cross-sectional versus prospective measurements of water quality and diarrhoea, 2-versus 7-day symptom recall periods, estimates with and without controlling for confounding and using measurements from control versus intervention arms of the trial. In the control arm, 2-day diarrhoea prevalence, measured prospectively 1 month after water quality, significantly increased with log 10 E. coli (PR = 1.50, 1.02-2.20). This association weakened when we used 7-day recall (PR = 1.18, 0.88-1.57), cross-sectional measurements of E. coli and diarrhoea (PR = 1.11, 0.79-1.56) or did not control for confounding (PR = 1.20, 0.88-1.62). Including data from intervention arms led to less interpretable associations, potentially due to courtesy bias, effect modification and/or reverse causation. By systematically addressing potential sources of bias, our analysis demonstrates a clear relationship between E. coli in drinking water and diarrhoea, suggesting that the continued use of E. coli as an indicator of waterborne diarrhoea risk is justified. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Experience with multiple control groups in a large population-based case-control study on genetic and environmental risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomp, E R; Van Stralen, K J; Le Cessie, S; Vandenbroucke, J P; Rosendaal, F R; Doggen, C J M

    2010-07-01

    We discuss the analytic and practical considerations in a large case-control study that had two control groups; the first control group consisting of partners of patients and the second obtained by random digit dialling (RDD). As an example of the evaluation of a general lifestyle factor, we present body mass index (BMI). Both control groups had lower BMIs than the patients. The distribution in the partner controls was closer to that of the patients, likely due to similar lifestyles. A statistical approach was used to pool the results of both analyses, wherein partners were analyzed with a matched analysis, while RDDs were analyzed without matching. Even with a matched analysis, the odds ratio with partner controls remained closer to unity than with RDD controls, which is probably due to unmeasured confounders in the comparison with the random controls as well as intermediary factors. However, when studying injuries as a risk factor, the odds ratio remained higher with partner control subjects than with RRD control subjects, even after taking the matching into account. Finally we used factor V Leiden as an example of a genetic risk factor. The frequencies of factor V Leiden were identical in both control groups, indicating that for the analyses of this genetic risk factor the two control groups could be combined in a single unmatched analysis. In conclusion, the effect measures with the two control groups were in the same direction, and of the same order of magnitude. Moreover, it was not always the same control group that produced the higher or lower estimates, and a matched analysis did not remedy the differences. Our experience with the intricacies of dealing with two control groups may be useful to others when thinking about an optimal research design or the best statistical approach.

  12. THE MEASURABILITY OF CONTROLLING PERFORMANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Laval

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The urge to increase the performance of company processes is ongoing. Surveys indicate however, that many companies do not measure the controlling performance with a defined set of key performance indicators. This paper will analyze three categories of controlling key performance indicators based on their degree of measurability and their impact on the financial performance of a company. Potential measures to optimize the performance of the controlling department will be outlined and put in a logical order. The aligning of the controlling activity with the respective management expectation will be discussed as a key success factor of this improvement project.

  13. Efficacy of internal control and controlling business risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luminiţa IONESCU

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Companies can gain additional efficiency in designing and implementing or assessing internal control by focusing on only those financial reporting objectives directly applicable to the company’s activities and circumstances, taking a risk based approach to internal control. It is important for any organization to have reliable financial data for internal decision-making purpose. Financial information is often useful in many internal decisions such as product or service pricing. This is why the most important function of the controller is to create and maintain the corporate financial control system. Today’s corporation operates in an increasingly complex environment and the controller’s role is to advice the management of current or future problems of the business environment or to prevent the fraud.

  14. PERFORMANCE IN INTERNAL CONTROL AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    JELER (POPA) IOANA; FOCŞAN ELEONORA IONELA; CORICI MARIAN CĂTĂLIN

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to highlight the importance of internal control and risk management. In practice, economic entities meet a variety of risks that have the origins from the internal environment or the external one. Although there are different of views on addressing the concept of risk - threats or opportunities, event or action, accordingly uncertain, proposed by specialists in risk management in this article we try to present these issues and identify techniques to ...

  15. A Security Risk Measurement for the RAdAC Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Britton, David W; Brown, Ian A

    2007-01-01

    .... The intent is to quantify the risk involved in a single information transaction. Additionally, this thesis will attempt to identify the risk factors involved when calculating the total security risk measurement...

  16. Homocysteine status and cardiovascular risk factors in patients with psoriasis: a case-control study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Tobin, A-M

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a hyperproliferative, cutaneous disorder with the potential to lower levels of folate. This may result in raised levels of homocysteine, an independent risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVE: A study was conducted to compare levels of red-cell folate (RCF) and homocysteine in patients with psoriasis and in healthy controls. Levels of homocysteine were also examined in the context of other major cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: In total, 20 patients with psoriasis and 20 controls had their RCF, homo-cysteine and other conventional cardiovascular risk factors assessed. RESULTS: Patients with psoriasis had a trend towards lower levels of RCF. Significantly raised levels of homocysteine were found in patients with psoriasis compared with controls (P = 0.007). There was no correlation between homocysteine levels, RCF levels or disease activity as measured by the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index. Patients with psoriasis had higher body mass index (P < 0.004) and higher systolic blood pressure (P < 0.001) than controls. This may contribute to the excess cardiovascular mortality observed in patients with psoriasis.

  17. Redundant measurements for controlling errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehinger, M.H.; Crawford, J.M.; Madeen, M.L.

    1979-07-01

    Current federal regulations for nuclear materials control require consideration of operating data as part of the quality control program and limits of error propagation. Recent work at the BNFP has revealed that operating data are subject to a number of measurement problems which are very difficult to detect and even more difficult to correct in a timely manner. Thus error estimates based on operational data reflect those problems. During the FY 1978 and FY 1979 R and D demonstration runs at the BNFP, redundant measurement techniques were shown to be effective in detecting these problems to allow corrective action. The net effect is a reduction in measurement errors and a significant increase in measurement sensitivity. Results show that normal operation process control measurements, in conjunction with routine accountability measurements, are sensitive problem indicators when incorporated in a redundant measurement program

  18. Model Predictive Control for Integrating Traffic Control Measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hegyi, A.

    2004-01-01

    Dynamic traffic control measures, such as ramp metering and dynamic speed limits, can be used to better utilize the available road capacity. Due to the increasing traffic volumes and the increasing number of traffic jams the interaction between the control measures has increased such that local

  19. Soy consumption and risk of COPD and respiratory symptoms: a case-control study in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirayama, Fumi; Lee, Andy H; Binns, Colin W; Zhao, Yun; Hiramatsu, Tetsuo; Tanikawa, Yoshimasa; Nishimura, Koichi; Taniguchi, Hiroyuki

    2009-06-26

    To investigate the relationship between soy consumption, COPD risk and the prevalence of respiratory symptoms, a case-control study was conducted in Japan. A total of 278 eligible patients (244 men and 34 women), aged 50-75 years with COPD diagnosed within the past four years, were referred by respiratory physicians, while 340 controls (272 men and 68 women) were recruited from the community. All participants underwent spirometric measurements of respiratory function. Information on demographics, lifestyle characteristics and habitual food consumption was obtained using a structured questionnaire. Total soy consumption was positively correlated with observed lung function measures. The mean soy intake was significantly higher among controls (59.98, SD 50.23 g/day) than cases (44.84, SD 28.5 g/day). A significant reduction in COPD risk was evident for highest versus lowest quartile of daily intake of total soybean products, with adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.392, 95% CI 0.194-0.793, p for trend 0.001. Similar decreases in COPD risk were associated with frequent and higher intake of soy foods such as tofu and bean sprouts, whereas respiratory symptoms were inversely associated with high consumption of soy foods, especially for breathlessness (OR 0.989, 95% CI 0.982-0.996). Increasing soy consumption was associated with a decreased risk of COPD and breathlessness.

  20. A hierarchical procedure for calculation of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.; Dinsmore, S.C.

    1987-01-01

    Starting with a general importance definition based on conditional probabilities, a hierarchical process for calculating risk importance measures from a PSA's numerical results is developed. By the appropriate choice of events in the general definition, measures such as the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth can be calculated without requantifying the PSA's models. Required approximations are clearly defined and the subsequent constraints on the applicability of the process discussed. (orig.)

  1. Computer controlled quality of analytical measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.P.; Huff, G.A.

    1979-01-01

    A PDP 11/35 computer system is used in evaluating analytical chemistry measurements quality control data at the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel Plant. This computerized measurement quality control system has several features which are not available in manual systems, such as real-time measurement control, computer calculated bias corrections and standard deviation estimates, surveillance applications, evaluaton of measurement system variables, records storage, immediate analyst recertificaton, and the elimination of routine analysis of known bench standards. The effectiveness of the Barnwell computer system has been demonstrated in gathering and assimilating the measurements of over 1100 quality control samples obtained during a recent plant demonstration run. These data were used to determine equaitons for predicting measurement reliability estimates (bias and precision); to evaluate the measurement system; and to provide direction for modification of chemistry methods. The analytical chemistry measurement quality control activities represented 10% of the total analytical chemistry effort

  2. Work load, job control and risk of leaving work by sickness certification before delivery, Norway 1989.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strand, K; Wergeland, E; Bjerkedal, T

    1997-09-01

    Sickness absence in pregnancy has been shown to be associated with strenuous working conditions and parity. So far, few studies have made adjustments for possible interaction and confounding. Such adjustments are needed to more precisely identify targets for preventive measures. We have, therefore, in a representative population of pregnant employees in Norway 1989, computed adjusted odds ratios for leaving work by sickness absence more than three (LSC > 3) and eight (LSC > 8) weeks before delivery according to working conditions identified as risk factors in earlier studies; adjusted for job control, domestic conditions and sickness absence the year prior to pregnancy. The cumulative percentage of LSC > 8 and LSC > 3 was 26.4 and 51.1. Ergonomically strenuous postures and heavy lifting increased the risk of both outcomes. In addition, shift work and hectic work pace increased the risk of LSC > 3. Influence on breaks reduced risk. Only para experienced reduced risk of LSC when working part-time. Sicklisting the year prior to pregnancy had no confounding effect, which suggest that pregnancy represents a new incompatibility with work. Preventive measures should address work postures and heavy lifting, as well as conditions influencing the woman's control with her time.

  3. PERFORMANCE IN INTERNAL CONTROL AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JELER (POPA IOANA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to highlight the importance of internal control and risk management. In practice, economic entities meet a variety of risks that have the origins from the internal environment or the external one. Although there are different of views on addressing the concept of risk - threats or opportunities, event or action, accordingly uncertain, proposed by specialists in risk management in this article we try to present these issues and identify techniques to counter risks occurrence. In this article we present also means managing risk and why needs to be implemented at institutional level a risk management. The paper concludes by highlight the role of efficient risk management in the company’s management and company's activities.

  4. Effect of internal controls on credit risk among listed Spanish banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The paper examines the effectiveness of internal control systems, explores the exposure of Spanish banks to the dangers of default as a result of internal control systems and establishes a relationship between internal controls and credit risk. Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative research approach is used to test hypotheses on the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in Spain. Data from Bankscope and company websites from 2004-2013 were used. Generalized Least Squares (random effect econometric estimation technique was used for the model. Findings: We find that internal control systems are in place but their effectiveness cannot be guaranteed. This exposes Spanish listed banks to serious default situations. There is significant effect of internal controls on credit risk especially the control environment, risk management, control activities and monitoring. The non-disclosure of material internal control weakness is a contributory factor to the ineffective internal control systems. There is however a perceived board ineffectiveness which does not augur well for effective internal control systems. Board characteristics for Spanish banks confirm the agency theory. Research Limitations and Implications: Data unavailability for certain years, variables and many inactive banks did not permit a larger sample size than expected. The use of quantitative variables lacks flexibility. Practical Implications: Bank management will find the work useful to ensure strict enforcement of internal control mechanisms and see it as both credit risk and operational risk issues. Central bank should hurry to compel banks to disclose material internal control weakness as provided in the reviewed COSO framework. Social Implications: Ineffective internal controls lead to credit risks, bank closure and loss of investments. Society suffers a lot from such losses and contagion. Disclosure of material internal control

  5. Measuring the quality of infection control in Dutch nursing homes using a standardized method; the Infection prevention RIsk Scan (IRIS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willemsen, I.; Nelson-Melching, J.; Hendriks, Y.; Mulders, A.; Verhoeff, S.; Kluytmans-Vandenbergh, M.; Kluytmans, J.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We developed a standardised method to assess the quality of infection control in Dutch Nursing Home (NH), based on a cross-sectional survey that visualises the results. The method was called the Infection control RIsk Infection Scan (IRIS). We tested the applicability of this new tool in

  6. Out-of-office blood pressure: from measurement to control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baguet JP

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Jean-Philippe Baguet1,21Department of Cardiology, University Hospital, 2Bioclinic Radiopharmaceutics Laboratory, INSERM U1039, Joseph Fourier University, Grenoble, FranceAbstract: Hypertension is an important risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease, and is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Traditionally, hypertension diagnosis and treatment and clinical evaluations of antihypertensive efficacy have been based on office blood pressure (BP measurements; however, there is increasing evidence that office measures may provide inadequate or misleading estimates of a patient’s true BP status and level of cardiovascular risk. The introduction, and endorsement by treatment guidelines, of 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring and self (or home BP monitoring has facilitated more reliable and reproducible estimations of true BP, including the identification of white-coat and masked hypertension, and evaluation of BP variability. In addition, ambulatory BP monitoring enables accurate assessment of treatment effectiveness over 24 hours and both ambulatory and self BP monitoring may lead to better tailoring of therapy according to BP profile and concomitant disease. This review describes the clinical benefits and limitations of out-of-office assessments and their applications for effective management of hypertension and attainment of BP control.Keywords: ambulatory, ABPM, SBPM, blood pressure measurement, hypertension

  7. Risk factors associated with lipomyelomeningocele: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmaeili, Arash; Hanaei, Sara; Fadakar, Kaveh; Dadkhah, Sahar; Arjipour, Mahdi; Habibi, Zohreh; Nejat, Farideh; El Khashab, Mostafa

    2013-01-01

    In general, it seems that both genetic and environmental factors play important roles in the induction of neural tube defects. Lipomyelomeningocele (LipoMMC) is a rather common type of closed neural tube defect, but only limited studies have investigated the potential risk factors of this anomaly. Therefore, the purpose of this case-control study was to investigate the risk factors involved in LipoMMC formation. Various risk factors were evaluated in 35 children between 1 month and 10 years of age with LipoMMC in a hospital-based case-control study. The 2 control arms consisted of 35 children with myelomeningocele (MMC group) and 35 children with congenital anomalies other than central nervous system problems (control group). All groups were matched for age and visited the same hospital. A structured questionnaire was used for the collection of all data, including the mothers' weight and height during pregnancy, education, reproductive history, previous abortions, and socioeconomic status, as well as the parents' consanguinity and family history of the same anomalies. Univariate analysis of the children with LipoMMC compared to the control group showed that the use of periconceptional folic acid supplementation was significantly lower in the MMC and LipoMMC groups compared to the control group. In addition, comparison of the MMC and control groups revealed statistically significant differences regarding the use of folic acid and maternal obesity. In multivariate analysis, use of folic acid in the periconceptional period and during the first trimester was an independent risk factor for LipoMMC and MMC. Furthermore, maternal obesity was a significantly positive risk factor for MMC. The probable risk factors for LipoMMC were investigated in this case-control study. Consumption of folic acid in the periconceptional period and during the first trimester is an independent protective factor against LipoMMC. It seems that larger studies are needed to examine other possible

  8. Beyond dual systems: A genetically-informed, latent factor model of behavioral and self-report measures related to adolescent risk-taking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Paige Harden

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The dual systems model posits that adolescent risk-taking results from an imbalance between a cognitive control system and an incentive processing system. Researchers interested in understanding the development of adolescent risk-taking use a diverse array of behavioral and self-report measures to index cognitive control and incentive processing. It is currently unclear whether different measures commonly interpreted as indicators of the same psychological construct do, in fact, tap the same underlying dimension of individual differences. In a diverse sample of 810 adolescent twins and triplets (M age = 15.9 years, SD = 1.4 years from the Texas Twin Project, we investigated the factor structure of fifteen self-report and task-based measures relevant to adolescent risk-taking. These measures can be organized into four factors, which we labeled premeditation, fearlessness, cognitive dyscontrol, and reward seeking. Most behavioral measures contained large amounts of task-specific variance; however, most genetic variance in each measure was shared with other measures of the corresponding factor. Behavior genetic analyses further indicated that genetic influences on cognitive dyscontrol overlapped nearly perfectly with genetic influences on IQ (rA = −0.91. These findings underscore the limitations of using single laboratory tasks in isolation, and indicate that the study of adolescent risk taking will benefit from applying multimethod approaches.

  9. Risk Importance Measures in the Designand Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrbanic I.; Samanta P.; Basic, I

    2017-10-31

    This monograph presents and discusses risk importance measures as quantified by the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models of nuclear power plants (NPPs) developed according to the current standards and practices. Usually, PRA tools calculate risk importance measures related to a single ?basic event? representing particular failure mode. This is, then, reflected in many current PRA applications. The monograph focuses on the concept of ?component-level? importance measures that take into account different failure modes of the component including common-cause failures (CCFs). In opening sections the roleof risk assessment in safety analysis of an NPP is introduced and discussion given of ?traditional?, mainly deterministic, design principles which have been established to assign a level of importance to a particular system, structure or component. This is followed by an overview of main risk importance measures for risk increase and risk decrease from current PRAs. Basic relations which exist among the measures are shown. Some of the current practical applications of risk importancemeasures from the field of NPP design, operation and regulation are discussed. The core of the monograph provides a discussion on theoreticalbackground and practical aspects of main risk importance measures at the level of ?component? as modeled in a PRA, starting from the simplest case, single basic event, and going toward more complexcases with multiple basic events and involvements in CCF groups. The intent is to express the component-level importance measures via theimportance measures and probabilities of the underlying single basic events, which are the inputs readily available from a PRA model andits results. Formulas are derived and discussed for some typical cases. The formulas and their results are demonstrated through some practicalexamples, done by means of a simplified PRA model developed in and run by RiskSpectrum? tool, which are presented in the appendices. The

  10. Journal Afrika Statistika ISSN 0852-0305 Distortion risk measures ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    la somme et sur la structure de dépendance des risques, représentée par une copule. ... Key words: Coherence; Dependence structure; Distortion function; Risk measure; Risk theory; insurance; Wang ..... Weighted risk capital allocations.

  11. A case-control study on risk of changing food consumption for colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bing; Li, Xiangping; Nakama, Hidenori; Zhang, Xing; Wei, Ning; Zhang, Xiulan; Zhang, Leshan

    2002-01-01

    To investigate the relative risk factor of food items for colorectal cancer in four time periods through a case-control study in a Chinese rural area. Colorectal cancer patients diagnosed at a county cancer center, Hebei Province, China, and non-cancer outpatients with similar age, sex, and place of residence were selected for cases and controls, respectively. There were 102 (93.6%) colorectal cancer patients and 99 (90.8%) outpatients being the cases and controls, respectively in the present investigation, who agreed to be interviewed about their food intake, during a 20-year period, through a food frequency questionnaire. The risks of intake of different food items and lifestyle for colorectal cancer were compared between cases and controls. During the 20-year period, diets of both cases and controls changed with increase in intake of animal foods and fruits, and alcohol consumption tended to increase. In the food items, milk intake showed a protective effect in both males and females, and the odds ratios were 0.38 (95% CI 0.16-0.90) and 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.81) for males and females, respectively. A reduced risk of fruit intake could be seen in males, while a reduced risk of vegetables could be observed in females. Meat intake and saturated fats were the prominent risk factors for colorectal cancer in males and females, respectively. A comparison of life habits, showed that tea drinking had a consistent protective effect in females, and the odds ratios were 0.21 (0.08-0.58), 0.23 (0.08-0.67), 0.25 (0.10-0.64), and 0.11 (0.04-0.30) for periods of 20-, 10-, 5-years ago, and current time, respectively. These findings indicate that change in food consumption is strongly associated with a change in risk of colorectal cancer, and dietary meat has increased the risk of colorectal cancer. Increase in the consumption of milk and fruits may be a significant measure for colorectal cancer prevention in low-incidence areas.

  12. Latent-failure risk estimates for computer control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, William R.; Folsom, Rolfe A.; Green, Owen R.

    1991-01-01

    It is shown that critical computer controls employing unmonitored safety circuits are unsafe. Analysis supporting this result leads to two additional, important conclusions: (1) annual maintenance checks of safety circuit function do not, as widely believed, eliminate latent failure risk; (2) safety risk remains even if multiple, series-connected protection circuits are employed. Finally, it is shown analytically that latent failure risk is eliminated when continuous monitoring is employed.

  13. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  14. Importance measures for use in PRAs and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, E.R.; Jamali, K.M.; Parry, G.W.; Gibbon, S.H.

    1985-01-01

    There are many quantities estimated in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) to index the level of plant safety. If the PRA is to be used as a risk management tool to assist in the safe operation of the plant, it is essential that those elements of the plant design and its mode of operation that have the greatest impact on plant safety be identified. These elements may be identified by performing importance calculations. There are certain decisions that must be made before the importance calculation is carried out. The first is the definition of the events for which importance is to be evaluated; that is, to what level of resolution the analysis is to be performed. The second decision that must be made--and the major subject of this paper--is the choice of importance measure. Many measures of importance have been proposed; this discussion is restricted to three: the risk achievement (or degradation) worth, the risk reduction worth, and criticality importance. In the paper these measures of importance are defined, their interrelationships are discussed, and a generalized importance measure is introduced. The use of these three measures is compared and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed

  15. Solution of resource allocation problem for identification of cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-01-01

    This report presents a methodology of selection of cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks. The methodology relies on a graded security model used in practice in different applications. The method is based on the controlled finite Markov chain approach set in combination with discrete dynamic programming and MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making) techniques that enables the expert to select the cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks depending on availability of resources. The analysis performed with different number of possible measures confirms the conclusions that the implementation of extra-large costs may not produce the required effect, and the increase in resources above a certain level does not appear sensitive. Diversification in improving the effectiveness of other measures seems more rational and efficient for the whole system than the unlimited improvement of the effectiveness of only one measure

  16. Solution of resource allocation problem for identification of cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I. [Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering, Studgorodok 1, Obninsk, Kaluga region 249030 (Russian Federation)

    2013-07-01

    This report presents a methodology of selection of cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks. The methodology relies on a graded security model used in practice in different applications. The method is based on the controlled finite Markov chain approach set in combination with discrete dynamic programming and MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making) techniques that enables the expert to select the cost-effective measures to reduce nuclear proliferation risks depending on availability of resources. The analysis performed with different number of possible measures confirms the conclusions that the implementation of extra-large costs may not produce the required effect, and the increase in resources above a certain level does not appear sensitive. Diversification in improving the effectiveness of other measures seems more rational and efficient for the whole system than the unlimited improvement of the effectiveness of only one measure.

  17. Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldschmidt, H.; Gorson, R.O.; Lassen, M.

    1983-01-01

    Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life

  18. Temporal patterns of lung cancer risk from radon and smoking - consequences to remediation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomasek, L.

    2004-01-01

    Studies of uranium miners conducted since the late 1960s demonstrated that the risk depends on cumulated exposure in terms of working level months (WLM) integrating both duration of exposure and concentration of radon. It has been also demonstrated that the risk from radon decreases with time since exposure. The present analysis of temporal changes of relative risk is based on a model where the total individual exposure is partitioned into components in dependence on time. Exposure to radon is studied in a cohort of 9411 Czech uranium miners with 766 cases of lung cancer and in a residential study of 11 803 inhabitants exposed to radon in houses with 218 cases. In addition, temporal patterns of the risk from smoking are analyzed in a case-control study of patients from a major Prague hospital including 566 cases. For both carcinogens, the relative risk decreases with time since exposure. The risk from exposures before 20-34 years is 36% and 34% in comparison to period 5-19 for smoking and radon, respectively. The effect of exposures from more distant periods 35-49 is only 5% for smoking and 14% for radon in comparison to 5-19 years. This substantial decrease of relative risk with time may contribute to a better evaluation of remediation measures taken in houses and in the cost effectiveness of remediation. Combined effect of smoking and radon is studied by a nested case-control approach including 434 cases and 962 controls. Analyses of the joint effects of smoking and radon, conducted in the occupational and the residential studies, suggest a sub-multiplicative interaction. The relative risk from radon among non-smokers is higher by a factor of 2-3 in comparison to smokers, suggesting different patterns of lung deposition and clearance among smokers and non-smokers. (author)

  19. Automated Risk Control in Medical Imaging Equipment Management Using Cloud Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sally M. Ghanem

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Medical imaging equipment (MIE is the baseline of providing patient diagnosis in healthcare facilities. However, that type of equipment poses high risk for patients, operators, and environment in terms of technology and application. Considering risk management in MIE management is rarely covered in literature. The study proposes a methodology that controls risks associated with MIE management. The methodology is based on proposing a set of key performance indicators (KPIs that lead to identify a set of undesired events (UDEs, and through a risk matrix, a risk level is evaluated. By using cloud computing software, risks could be controlled to be manageable. The methodology was verified by using a data set of 204 pieces of MIE along 104 hospitals, which belong to Egyptian Ministry of Health. Results point to appropriateness of proposed KPIs and UDEs in risk evaluation and control. Thus, the study reveals that optimizing risks taking into account the costs has an impact on risk control of MIE management.

  20. Prenatal and perinatal risk factors and testicular cancer: a hospital-based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonke, Gabe S; Chang, Shine; Strom, Sara S; Sweeney, Anne M; Annegers, J Fred; Sigurdson, Alice J

    2007-01-01

    Some evidence exists to support the hypothesis that elevated levels of circulating maternal estrogens during early pregnancy may increase risk of testicular germ cell cancer. However, the results from studies evaluating maternal factors have been mixed. We evaluated maternal factors, particularly those associated with excess estrogen levels, as risk factors for testicular cancer. We conducted a hospital-based case-control study at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas of 144 testicular cancer patients diagnosed between 1990 and 1996 and 86 friend controls matched to cases on age, race, and state of residence. Risk factor data about the mother, the son, and the pregnancy were obtained from the mothers by telephone interviews and from the sons by self-administered questionnaires. Extreme nausea during the first trimester of pregnancy was associated with an elevated risk of testicular cancer [odds ratio (OR) = 2.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.0-3.9]. Adjustment for potential confounders slightly lowered this risk (OR = 1.8; 95% CI = 0.9-3.8). Risks were modestly increased for other factors that are proxy measures for maternal estrogens, including preterm delivery (OR = 2.2; 95% CI = 0.4-12.9), birth weight 4000 g (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 0.9-3.2), albeit nonsignificantly so. Our finding that severe nausea was associated with increased testicular cancer risk adds evidence to support the in utero estrogen exposure hypothesis because nausea early in pregnancy is related to rising levels of circulating estrogens. For other factors, which are less direct measures of maternal estrogens, the modest associations found indicate a suggestive pattern in support of the excess estrogen hypothesis.

  1. Use of risk importance measures in maintenance prioritization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubreil Chambardel, A.; Ardorino, F.; Mauger, P.

    1997-01-01

    A RCM method has been developed at EDF since 1990 to optimize maintenance through a prioritization of resources for equipment that are important in terms of safety, availability and maintenance costs. In 1994, the Nuclear Power Plant Operations Division decided to apply this method to the most important systems of the French PWRs. About 50 systems are in the scope of the RCM. Those that have a role in safety were ranked depending on their contribution to the risk of core melt provided by PSAs. The RCM studies on the 20 most important to safety systems are performed by the Nuclear Power Plant Operations division, the other 30 systems are studied on sites. The RCM study consists first in the research of equipment and failures modes significant to safety, availability or maintenance costs and the evaluation of the performance of those equipment. Those studies lead to the distinction of equipment and failure modes that are critical or non critical to safety, availability and costs. The last part of the study consists in optimizing maintenance on those equipment. In this process, risk measures are used to help defining equipment and failure modes critical to safety. This is done by calculation of risk importance measures provided by PSAs. We explain in this paper which measures of risk have been defined, how PSAs allow calculation of those measures, and how we used those results in the RCM studies we processed. We give also extensions of the use of those measures in the process of defining optimized maintenance tasks. After having defined a RCM method for the French PWRs, the Nuclear Power plant Operations Division decided to start a generalized program of maintenance optimization for the most important systems. The three criteria on which the method relies are: safety, unit availability and maintenance costs. We present here the safety aspect of the method and more precisely these of risk importance measures in the RCM process. (author)

  2. Measurement control program for nuclear material accounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brouns, R.J.; Roberts, F.P.; Merrill, J.A.; Brown, W.B.

    1980-06-01

    A measurement control program for nuclear material accounting monitors and controls the quality of the measurments of special nuclear material that are involved in material balances. The quality is monitored by collecting data from which the current precision and accuracy of measurements can be evaluated. The quality is controlled by evaluations, reviews, and other administrative measures for control of selection or design of facilities, equipment and measurement methods and the training and qualification of personnel who perform SNM measurements. This report describes the most important elements of a program by which management can monitor and control measurement quality

  3. Application of REVEAL-W to risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dezfuli, H.; Meyer, J.; Modarres, M.

    1994-01-01

    Over the past two years, the concept of risk-based configuration control has been introduced to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the nuclear industry. Converting much of the current, deterministically based regulation of nuclear power plants to risk-based regulation can result in lower levels of risk while relieving unnecessary burdens on power plant operators and regulatory staff. To achieve the potential benefits of risk-based configuration control, the risk models developed for nuclear power plants should be (1) flexible enough to effectively support necessary risk calculations, and (2) transparent enough to encourage their use by all parties. To address these needs, SCIENTECH, Inc., has developed the PC-based REVEAL W (formerly known as SMART). This graphic-oriented and user-friendly application software allows the user to develop transparent complex logic models based on the concept of the master plant logic diagram. The logic model is success-oriented and compact. The analytical capability built into REVEAL W is generic, so the software can support different types of risk-based evaluations, such as probabilistic safety assessment, accident sequence precursor analysis, design evaluation and configuration management. In this paper, we focus on the application of REVEAL W to support risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plants. (author)

  4. Measuring device for control rod driving time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Kazuhiko; Hanabusa, Masatoshi.

    1993-01-01

    The present invention concerns a measuring device for control driving time having a function capable of measuring a selected control rod driving time and measuring an entire control rod driving time simultaneously. A calculation means and a store means for the selected rod control rod driving time, and a calculation means and a store means for the entire control rod driving time are disposed individually. Each of them measures the driving time and stores the data independent of each other based on a selected control rod insert ion signal and an entire control rod insertion signal. Even if insertion of selected and entire control rods overlaps, each of the control rod driving times can be measured reliably to provide an advantageous effect capable of more accurately conducting safety evaluation for the nuclear reactor based on the result of the measurement. (N.H.)

  5. H. pylori seroprevalence and risk of diabetes: An ancillary case-control study nested in the diabetes prevention program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alzahrani, Saud; Nelson, Jason; Moss, Steven F; Paulus, Jessica K; Knowler, William C; Pittas, Anastassios G

    2017-10-01

    To determine the association between H. pylori infection and risk of incident diabetes in adults at high risk for diabetes who participated in the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) study. In a nested case-control study conducted among 421 adults with newly diagnosed diabetes and 421 matched controls, we examined the association between serological status of H. pylori at baseline and risk of incident diabetes over a mean follow-up period of 2.6years. Using data from the baseline visit of the DPP, we also examined the cross-sectional association between presence of H. pylori antibodies and insulin sensitivity, insulin secretion and the disposition index-like measure after a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). At baseline, H. pylori antibodies were present in 40% of participants who developed diabetes and 39% of controls. After adjusting for matching factors, there was no association between exposure to H. pylori and incident diabetes (odds ratio [OR] of 1.04 (95% CI, 0.77 to 1.40). In cross-sectional analyses, H. pylori status was not significantly associated with insulin sensitivity and disposition index-like measure from OGTT. In adults at high risk for diabetes, H. pylori seropositivity was not associated with risk of developing diabetes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Documentation of body mass index and control of associated risk factors in a large primary care network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grant Richard W

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Body mass index (BMI will be a reportable health measure in the United States (US through implementation of Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS guidelines. We evaluated current documentation of BMI, and documentation and control of associated risk factors by BMI category, based on electronic health records from a 12-clinic primary care network. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 79,947 active network patients greater than 18 years of age seen between 7/05 - 12/06. We defined BMI category as normal weight (NW, 18-24.9 kg/m2, overweight (OW, 25-29.9, and obese (OB, ≥ 30. We measured documentation (yes/no and control (above/below of the following three risk factors: blood pressure (BP ≤130/≤85 mmHg, low-density lipoprotein (LDL ≤130 mg/dL (3.367 mmol/L, and fasting glucose Results BMI was documented in 48,376 patients (61%, range 34-94%, distributed as 30% OB, 34% OW, and 36% NW. Documentation of all three risk factors was higher in obesity (OB = 58%, OW = 54%, NW = 41%, p for trend Conclusions In a large primary care network BMI documentation has been incomplete and for patients with BMI measured, risk factor control has been poorer in obese patients compared with NW, even in those with obesity and CVD or diabetes. Better knowledge of BMI could provide an opportunity for improved quality in obesity care.

  7. Influences of Regional Development on Land Use of Nagara Basin and Flood Risk Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banba Michiko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Land developments, and construction of factories or logistic centers should be implemented with the wellconsidered land use plans by taking account of disaster risks to improve the resilience of region to mitigate damages. In this paper, the relationship between regional development and land use from the perspective of flood risk control. Nagara basin in Gifu prefecture (Gifu, Mino, and Seki City, where transportation network has been developed to raise the potential for more development, is selected as a case study site. First, changes of industrial structures of the region and its influences on land use were analyzed. Then, possible flood control measures were summarized, and issues from the land use perspective are analysed

  8. A Risk Management Architecture for Emergency Integrated Aircraft Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlynn, Gregory E.; Litt, Jonathan S.; Lemon, Kimberly A.; Csank, Jeffrey T.

    2011-01-01

    Enhanced engine operation--operation that is beyond normal limits--has the potential to improve the adaptability and safety of aircraft in emergency situations. Intelligent use of enhanced engine operation to improve the handling qualities of the aircraft requires sophisticated risk estimation techniques and a risk management system that spans the flight and propulsion controllers. In this paper, an architecture that weighs the risks of the emergency and of possible engine performance enhancements to reduce overall risk to the aircraft is described. Two examples of emergency situations are presented to demonstrate the interaction between the flight and propulsion controllers to facilitate the enhanced operation.

  9. Importance of sustained and "tight" blood pressure control in patients with high cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meredith, Peter A; Lloyd, Suzanne M; Ford, Ian; Elliott, Henry L

    2016-01-01

    A retrospective further analysis of the ACTION database evaluated the relationship between cardiovascular outcomes and the "quality" of the control of blood pressure (BP). The study population (n = 6287) comprised those patients with four BP measurements during year 1 subdivided according to the proportion of visits in which BP was controlled in relation to two BP targets: control groups for the major prespecified ACTION outcomes were investigated with Cox proportional hazards models. For all the prespecified cardiovascular endpoints the incidence declined as the proportion of visits with BP control increased. The greatest differences in outcomes between the different BP control groups were observed for the risk of stroke but were still apparent for all the other endpoints. For example, the risks for the primary outcome [hazard ratio (HR) 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.90] were significantly less in the group with >_75% of visits with BP control than in the group with control. There were no significant treatment-related differences. Retrospective analyses are not definitive but these results highlight the importance of the attainment of BP control targets and the consistency of BP control during long-term follow-up.

  10. Improving measurement of injection drug risk behavior using item response theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janulis, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Recent research highlights the multiple steps to preparing and injecting drugs and the resultant viral threats faced by drug users. This research suggests that more sensitive measurement of injection drug HIV risk behavior is required. In addition, growing evidence suggests there are gender differences in injection risk behavior. However, the potential for differential item functioning between genders has not been explored. To explore item response theory as an improved measurement modeling technique that provides empirically justified scaling of injection risk behavior and to examine for potential gender-based differential item functioning. Data is used from three studies in the National Institute on Drug Abuse's Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. A two-parameter item response theory model was used to scale injection risk behavior and logistic regression was used to examine for differential item functioning. Item fit statistics suggest that item response theory can be used to scale injection risk behavior and these models can provide more sensitive estimates of risk behavior. Additionally, gender-based differential item functioning is present in the current data. Improved measurement of injection risk behavior using item response theory should be encouraged as these models provide increased congruence between construct measurement and the complexity of injection-related HIV risk. Suggestions are made to further improve injection risk behavior measurement. Furthermore, results suggest direct comparisons of composite scores between males and females may be misleading and future work should account for differential item functioning before comparing levels of injection risk behavior.

  11. Toward risk assessment 2.0: Safety supervisory control and model-based hazard monitoring for risk-informed safety interventions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Favarò, Francesca M.; Saleh, Joseph H.

    2016-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a staple in the engineering risk community, and it has become to some extent synonymous with the entire quantitative risk assessment undertaking. Limitations of PRA continue to occupy researchers, and workarounds are often proposed. After a brief review of this literature, we propose to address some of PRA's limitations by developing a novel framework and analytical tools for model-based system safety, or safety supervisory control, to guide safety interventions and support a dynamic approach to risk assessment and accident prevention. Our work shifts the emphasis from the pervading probabilistic mindset in risk assessment toward the notions of danger indices and hazard temporal contingency. The framework and tools here developed are grounded in Control Theory and make use of the state-space formalism in modeling dynamical systems. We show that the use of state variables enables the definition of metrics for accident escalation, termed hazard levels or danger indices, which measure the “proximity” of the system state to adverse events, and we illustrate the development of such indices. Monitoring of the hazard levels provides diagnostic information to support both on-line and off-line safety interventions. For example, we show how the application of the proposed tools to a rejected takeoff scenario provides new insight to support pilots’ go/no-go decisions. Furthermore, we augment the traditional state-space equations with a hazard equation and use the latter to estimate the times at which critical thresholds for the hazard level are (b)reached. This estimation process provides important prognostic information and produces a proxy for a time-to-accident metric or advance notice for an impending adverse event. The ability to estimate these two hazard coordinates, danger index and time-to-accident, offers many possibilities for informing system control strategies and improving accident prevention and risk mitigation

  12. Introduction to control system performance measurements

    CERN Document Server

    Garner, K C

    1968-01-01

    Introduction to Control System Performance Measurements presents the methods of dynamic measurements, specifically as they apply to control system and component testing. This book provides an introduction to the concepts of statistical measurement methods.Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of the applications of automatic control systems that pervade almost every area of activity ranging from servomechanisms to electrical power distribution networks. This text then discusses the common measurement transducer functions. Other chapters consider the basic wave

  13. Simplifying the audit of risk factor recording and control: A report from an international study in 11 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Min; Cooney, Marie Therese; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin; Vaartjes, Ilonca; De Bacquer, Dirk; De Sutter, Johan; Reiner, Željko; Prescott, Eva; Faggiano, Pompilio; Vanuzzo, Diego; AlFaleh, Hussam; Menown, Ian Ba; Gait, Dan; Posogova, Nana; Sheu, Wayne H-H; Zhao, Dong; Zuo, Huijuan; Grobbee, Diederick E; Graham, Ian M

    2016-07-01

    To simplify the assessment of the recording and control of coronary heart disease risk factors in different countries and regions. The SUrvey of Risk Factors (SURF) is an international clinical audit. Data on consecutive patients with established coronary heart disease from countries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East were collected on a one-page collection sheet or electronically during routine clinic visits. Information on demographics, diagnostic category, risk factors, physical and laboratory measurements, and medications were included and key variables summarized in a Cardiovascular Health Index Score. Coronary heart disease patients (N = 10,186; 29% women) were enrolled from 79 centres in 11 countries. Recording of risk factors varied considerably: smoking was recorded in over 98% of subjects, while about 20% lacked data on laboratory measurements relevant to cardiovascular disease risk. Sixteen per cent of participants reported smoking, 29% were obese, and 46% had abdominal obesity. Sixty per cent of participants had blood pressure control of risk factors with substantial variation between countries, calling for development and implementation of clinical standards of secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. © The European Society of Cardiology 2016.

  14. Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: 13 collaborative analyses of individual data from European case-control studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darby, S.; Hill, D.; Doll, R.; Auvinen, A.; Barros Dios, J.M.; Ruano Ravina, A.; Baysson, H.; Tirmarche, M.; Bochicchio, F.; Deo, H.; Falk, R.; Forastiere, F.; Hakama, M.; Heid, I.; Schaffrath Rosario, A.; Wichmann, H.E.; Kreienbrock, L.; Kreuzer, M.; Lagarde, F.; Pershagen, G.; Makelainen, I.; Ruosteenoja, E.; Muirhead, C.; Oberaigner, W.; TomaBek, L.; Whitley, E.

    2007-01-01

    Objective: To determine the risk of lung cancer associated with exposure at home to the radioactive disintegration products of naturally occurring radon gas. Design: Collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 case-control studies of residential radon and lung cancer. Setting: Nine European countries. Subjects: 7148 cases of lung cancer and 14 208 controls. Main outcome measures: Relative risks of lung cancer and radon gas concentrations in homes inhabited during the previous 5-34 years measured in becquerels (radon disintegrations per second) per cubic metre (Bq/m3) of household air. Results: The mean measured radon concentration in homes of people in the control group was 97 Bq/m3, with 11% measuring > 200 and 4% measuring > 400 Bq/m3. For cases of lung cancer the mean concentration was 104 Bq/m3. The risk of lung cancer increased by 8.4% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 15.8%) per 100 Bq/m3 increase in measured radon (P=0.0007). This corresponds to an increase of 16% (5% to 31%) per 100 Bq/m3 increase in usual radon- that is, after correction for the dilution caused by random uncertainties in measuring radon concentrations. The dose-response relation seemed to be linear with no threshold and remained significant (P = 0.04) in analyses limited to individuals from homes with measured radon < 200 Bq/m3. The proportionate excess risk did not differ significantly with study, age, sex, or smoking. In the absence of other causes of death, the absolute risks of lung cancer by age 75 years at usual radon concentrations of 0, 100, and 400 Bq/m3 would be about 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.7%, respectively, for lifelong non-smokers, and about 25 times greater (10%, 12%, and 16%) for cigarette smokers. Conclusions: Collectively, though not separately, these studies show appreciable hazards from residential radon, particularly for smokers and recent ex-smokers, and indicate that it is responsible for about 2% of all deaths from cancer in Europe. (author)

  15. Risk management in architectural design control of uncertainty over building use and maintenance

    CERN Document Server

    Martani, Claudio

    2015-01-01

    This book analyzes the risk management process in relation to building design and operation and on this basis proposes a method and a set of tools that will improve the planning and evaluation of design solutions in order to control risks in the operation and management phase. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between design choices and the long-term performance of buildings in meeting requirements expressing user and client needs. A risk dashboard is presented as a risk measurement framework that identifies and addresses areas of uncertainty surrounding the satisfaction of particularly relevant requirements over time. This risk dashboard will assist both designers and clients. It will support designers by enabling them to improve the maintainability of project performance and will aid clients both in devising a brief that emphasizes the most relevant aspects of maintainability and in evaluating project proposals according to long-term risks. The results of assessment of the proposed method and...

  16. Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Ari S; Reid, Kim R; Pollock, Margaret C; Campleman, Sharan L

    2012-01-01

    Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate

  17. Radiation measurements and quality control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLaughlin, W.L.

    1977-01-01

    Accurate measurements are essential to research leading to a successful radiation process and to the commissioning of the process and the facility. On the other hand, once the process is in production, the importance to quality control of measuring radiation quantities (i.e., absorbed dose, dose rate, dose distribution) rather than various other parameters of the process (i.e. conveyor speed, dwell time, radiation field characteristics, product dimensions) is not clearly established. When the safety of the product is determined by the magnitude of the administered dose, as in radiation sterilization, waste control, or food preservation, accuracy and precision of the measurement of the effective dose are vital. Since physical dose measurements are usually simpler, more reliable and reproducible than biological testing of the product, there is a trend toward using standardized dosimetry for quality control of some processes. In many industrial products, however, such as vulcanized rubber, textiles, plastics, coatings, films, wire and cable, the effective dose can be controlled satisfactorily by controlling process variables or by product testing itself. In the measurement of radiation dose profiles by dosimetry, it is necessary to have suitable dose meter calibrations, to account for sources of error and imprecision, and to use correct statistical procedures in specifying dwell times or conveyor speeds and source and product parameters to achieve minimum and maximum doses within specifications. (author)

  18. Prevalence of malaria and use of malaria risk reduction measures among resettled pregnant women in South Sudan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dræbel, Tania; Gueth Kueil, Bill; Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf

    2013-01-01

    Background: The study assessed aspects of malaria infection, prevention and treatment in a population of resettled pregnant women in South Sudan. Methods: During April and May 2008, a cross-sectional study was carried out to estimate malaria prevalence and to assess the use of malaria risk...... ¼ 3.20, 95% CI 1.26–8.16; p ¼ 0.015). Conclusions: The results suggest that educational attainment need not be very advanced to affect practices of malaria prevention and treatment. Primary school attendance was a stronger predictor for use of malaria risk reduction measures than any of the other...... selected background characteristics. Educational attainment, information and communication about malaria prevention and control play a pivotal role in increasing and improving use of malaria risk reduction measures....

  19. One Idea of Portfolio Risk Control Focusing on States of Correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiyama, Noboru

    2004-04-01

    In the modern portfolio theory there are 2 major risk parameters that mean and variance. Correlations should be playing important role as well but variance is thought to be most important risk parameter for risk control in the theory. I focused on states of correlation to calculate eigen values as risk control parameter.

  20. Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loebnitz, K.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and

  1. On the interplay between distortion, mean value and Haezendonck-Goovaerts risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Linders, D.; van Weert, K.; Tank, F.

    2012-01-01

    In the actuarial research, distortion, mean value and Haezendonck-Goovaerts risk measures are concepts that are usually treated separately. In this paper we indicate and characterize the relation between these different risk measures, as well as their relation to convex risk measures. While it is

  2. Risk factors for gallbladder cancer: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Kajal; Sreenivas, V; Velpandian, T; Kapil, Umesh; Garg, Pramod Kumar

    2013-04-01

    Risk factors for gallbladder cancer (GBC) except gallstones are not well known. The objective was to study the risk factors for GBC. In a case-control study, 200 patients with GBC, 200 healthy controls and 200 gallstones patients as diseased controls were included prospectively. The risk factors studied were related to socioeconomic profile, life style, reproduction, diet and bile acids. On comparing GBC patients (mean age 51.7 years; 130 females) with healthy controls, risk factors were chemical exposure [odd ratios (OR): 7.0 (2.7-18.2); p < 0.001)], family history of gallstones [OR: 5.3 (1.5-18.9); p < 0.01)], tobacco [OR: 4.1 (1.8-9.7); p < 0.001)], fried foods [OR: 3.1 (1.7-5.6); p < 0.001], joint family [OR: 3.2 (1.7-6.2); p < 0.001], long interval between meals [OR: 1.4 (1.2-1.6); p < 0.001] and residence in Gangetic belt [OR: 3.3 (1.8-6.2); p < 0.001]. On comparing GBC cases with gallstone controls, risk factors were female gender [OR: 2.4 (1.3-4.3); p = 0.004], residence in Gangetic belt [OR: 2.3 (1.2-4.4); p = 0.012], fried foods [OR: 2.5 (1.4-4.4); p < 0.001], diabetes [OR: 2.7 (1.2-6.4); p = 0.02)], tobacco [OR 3.8 (1.7-8.1); p < 0.001)] and joint family [OR: 2.1 (1.2-3.4); p = 0.004]. The ratio of secondary to primary bile acids was significantly higher in GBC cases than gallstone controls (20.8 vs. 0.44). Fried foods, tobacco, chemical exposure, family history of gallstones, residence in Gangetic belt and secondary bile acids were significant risk factors for GBC. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

  3. Comparison of atherogenic risk factors among poorly controlled and well-controlled adolescent phenylketonuria patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gündüz, Mehmet; Çakar, Sevim; Kuyum, Pınar; Makay, Balahan; Arslan, Nur

    2016-06-01

    Previous studies investigating the known risk factors of atherosclerosis in phenylketonuria patients have shown conflicting results. The primary aim of our study was to investigate the serum atherogenic markers in adolescent classical phenylketonuria patients and compare these parameters with healthy peers. The secondary aim was to compare these atherogenic markers in well-controlled and poorly controlled patients. A total of 59 patients (median age: 12.6 years, range: 11-17 years) and 44 healthy controls (median age: 12.0 years, range: 11-15 years) were enrolled in our study. Phenylketonuria patients were divided into two groups: well-controlled (serum phenylalanine levels below 360 µmol/L; 24 patients) and poorly controlled patients (serum phenylalanine levels higher than 360 µmol/L). The mean high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of well-controlled patients (1.0±0.2 mmol/L) were significantly lower compared with poorly controlled patients and controls (1.1±0.2 mmol/L, p=0.011 and 1.4±0.2 mmol/L, pphenylketonuria patients. In particular, these changes were more prominent in well-controlled patients. We conclude that phenylketonuria patients might be at risk for atherosclerosis, and therefore screening for atherosclerotic risk factors should be included in the phenylketonuria therapy and follow-up in addition to other parameters.

  4. Frequency Control Performance Measurement and Requirements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Illian, Howard F.

    2010-12-20

    Frequency control is an essential requirement of reliable electric power system operations. Determination of frequency control depends on frequency measurement and the practices based on these measurements that dictate acceptable frequency management. This report chronicles the evolution of these measurements and practices. As technology progresses from analog to digital for calculation, communication, and control, the technical basis for frequency control measurement and practices to determine acceptable performance continues to improve. Before the introduction of digital computing, practices were determined largely by prior experience. In anticipation of mandatory reliability rules, practices evolved from a focus primarily on commercial and equity issues to an increased focus on reliability. This evolution is expected to continue and place increased requirements for more precise measurements and a stronger scientific basis for future frequency management practices in support of reliability.

  5. Optimal control of quantum measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egger, Daniel; Wilhelm, Frank [Theoretical Physics, Saarland University, 66123 Saarbruecken (Germany)

    2015-07-01

    Pulses to steer the time evolution of quantum systems can be designed with optimal control theory. In most cases it is the coherent processes that can be controlled and one optimizes the time evolution towards a target unitary process, sometimes also in the presence of non-controllable incoherent processes. Here we show how to extend the GRAPE algorithm in the case where the incoherent processes are controllable and the target time evolution is a non-unitary quantum channel. We perform a gradient search on a fidelity measure based on Choi matrices. We illustrate our algorithm by optimizing a measurement pulse for superconducting phase qubits. We show how this technique can lead to large measurement contrast close to 99%. We also show, within the validity of our model, that this algorithm can produce short 1.4 ns pulses with 98.2% contrast.

  6. Measurement control program for NDA instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsue, S.T.; Marks, T.

    1983-01-01

    Measurement control checks for nondestructive assay instruments have been a constant and continuing concern at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This paper summarizes the evolution of the measurement control checks in the various high-resolution gamma systems we have developed. In-plant experiences with these systems and checks will be discussed. Based on these experiences, a set of measurement control checks is recommended for high-resolution gamma-ray systems

  7. A systematic review of risk factors associated with accidental falls, outcome measures and interventions to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Laura A; Ousley, Cherita; Sosnoff, Jacob J

    2015-01-01

    To systematically review peer-reviewed literature pertaining to risk factors, outcome measures and interventions managing fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Twenty-one papers were selected for inclusion from databases including PubMed/Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Cochrane Library, Scopus, Consumer Health Complete and Web of Science. Selected studies involved a description of fall related risk factors, outcomes to assess fall risk and intervention studies describing protocols to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Studies were selected by two reviewers and consultation provided by a third reviewer. The most frequently cited risk factors/characteristics associated with falls included: wheelchair related characteristics, transfer activities, impaired seated balance and environmental factors. The majority of the outcomes were found to evaluate seated postural control. One intervention study was identified describing a protocol targeting specific problems of individual participants. A global fall prevention program was not identified. Several risk factors associated with falls were identified and must be understood by clinicians to better serve their clients. To improve objective assessment, a comprehensive outcome assessment specific to non-ambulatory adults is needed. Finally, additional research is needed to examine the impact of structured protocols to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Falls are a common health concern for non-ambulatory adults. Risk factors commonly associated with falls include wheelchair related characteristics, transfer activities, impaired seated balance and environmental factors. Limited outcome measures are available to assess fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Clinicians must be aware of the known risk factors and provide comprehensive education to their clients on the potential for falls. Additional research is needed to develop and evaluate protocols to clinically manage fall

  8. Reports of wins and risk taking: an investigation of the mediating effect of the illusion of control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Frédéric; Le Floch, Valérie; Gaffié, Bernard; Villejoubert, Gaëlle

    2011-06-01

    Two experiments examined the relationships between the knowledge that another person has won in a gamble, the illusion of control and risk taking. Participants played a computer-simulated French roulette game individually. Before playing, some participants learnt that another person won a large amount of money. Results from a first experiment (n = 24) validated a causal model where the knowledge of another person's win increased the illusion of control, measured with betting times, expectancy and self-reports on scales, which in turn encourages risk taking. In the second experiment (n = 36), some participants were told the previous player acknowledged the win to be fortuitous. The suppression of the belief that the previous winner had himself exerted control over the outcome resulted in lower rates of risk-taking behaviors. This suggests that it was not the knowledge of another person's win in itself that increased risk taking, but rather, the belief that the other person had some control over the gamble's outcome. Theoretical implications for the study of social mechanisms involved in gambling behavior are discussed.

  9. Tuberculosis in healthcare workers and infection control measures at primary healthcare facilities in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claassens, Mareli M; van Schalkwyk, Cari; du Toit, Elizabeth; Roest, Eline; Lombard, Carl J; Enarson, Donald A; Beyers, Nulda; Borgdorff, Martien W

    2013-01-01

    Challenges exist regarding TB infection control and TB in hospital-based healthcare workers in South Africa. However, few studies report on TB in non-hospital based healthcare workers such as primary or community healthcare workers. Our objectives were to investigate the implementation of TB infection control measures at primary healthcare facilities, the smear positive TB incidence rate amongst primary healthcare workers and the association between TB infection control measures and all types of TB in healthcare workers. One hundred and thirty three primary healthcare facilities were visited in five provinces of South Africa in 2009. At each facility, a TB infection control audit and facility questionnaire were completed. The number of healthcare workers who had had TB during the past three years was obtained. The standardised incidence ratio of smear positive TB in primary healthcare workers indicated an incidence rate of more than double that of the general population. In a univariable logistic regression, the infection control audit score was significantly associated with reported cases of TB in healthcare workers (OR=1.04, 95%CI 1.01-1.08, p=0.02) as was the number of staff (OR=3.78, 95%CI 1.77-8.08). In the multivariable analysis, the number of staff remained significantly associated with TB in healthcare workers (OR=3.33, 95%CI 1.37-8.08). The high rate of TB in healthcare workers suggests a substantial nosocomial transmission risk, but the infection control audit tool which was used did not perform adequately as a measure of this risk. Infection control measures should be monitored by validated tools developed and tested locally. Different strategies, such as routine surveillance systems, could be used to evaluate the burden of TB in healthcare workers in order to calculate TB incidence, monitor trends and implement interventions to decrease occupational TB.

  10. Tuberculosis in Healthcare Workers and Infection Control Measures at Primary Healthcare Facilities in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claassens, Mareli M.; van Schalkwyk, Cari; du Toit, Elizabeth; Roest, Eline; Lombard, Carl J.; Enarson, Donald A.; Beyers, Nulda; Borgdorff, Martien W.

    2013-01-01

    Background Challenges exist regarding TB infection control and TB in hospital-based healthcare workers in South Africa. However, few studies report on TB in non-hospital based healthcare workers such as primary or community healthcare workers. Our objectives were to investigate the implementation of TB infection control measures at primary healthcare facilities, the smear positive TB incidence rate amongst primary healthcare workers and the association between TB infection control measures and all types of TB in healthcare workers. Methods One hundred and thirty three primary healthcare facilities were visited in five provinces of South Africa in 2009. At each facility, a TB infection control audit and facility questionnaire were completed. The number of healthcare workers who had had TB during the past three years was obtained. Results The standardised incidence ratio of smear positive TB in primary healthcare workers indicated an incidence rate of more than double that of the general population. In a univariable logistic regression, the infection control audit score was significantly associated with reported cases of TB in healthcare workers (OR=1.04, 95%CI 1.01-1.08, p=0.02) as was the number of staff (OR=3.78, 95%CI 1.77-8.08). In the multivariable analysis, the number of staff remained significantly associated with TB in healthcare workers (OR=3.33, 95%CI 1.37-8.08). Conclusion The high rate of TB in healthcare workers suggests a substantial nosocomial transmission risk, but the infection control audit tool which was used did not perform adequately as a measure of this risk. Infection control measures should be monitored by validated tools developed and tested locally. Different strategies, such as routine surveillance systems, could be used to evaluate the burden of TB in healthcare workers in order to calculate TB incidence, monitor trends and implement interventions to decrease occupational TB. PMID:24098461

  11. Developing a national programme of flood risk management measures: Moldova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramsbottom David

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A Technical Assistance project funded by the European Investment Bank has been undertaken to develop a programme of flood risk management measures for Moldova that will address the main shortcomings in the present flood management system, and provide the basis for long-term improvement. Areas of significant flood risk were identified using national hydraulic and flood risk modelling, and flood hazard and flood risk maps were then prepared for these high risk areas. The flood risk was calculated using 12 indicators representing social, economic and environmental impacts of flooding. Indicator values were combined to provide overall estimates of flood risk. Strategic approaches to flood risk management were identified for each river basin using a multi-criteria analysis. Measures were then identified to achieve the strategic approaches. A programme of measures covering a 20-year period was developed together with a more detailed Short-Term Investment Plan covering the first seven years of the programme. Arrangements are now being made to implement the programme. The technical achievements of the project included national hydrological and hydraulic modelling covering 12,000 km of river, the development of 2-dimensional channel and floodplain hydraulic models from a range of topographic and bathymetric data, and an integrated flood risk assessment that takes account of both economic and non-monetary impacts.

  12. Combining quantitative and qualitative breast density measures to assess breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlikowske, Karla; Ma, Lin; Scott, Christopher G; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir P; Jensen, Matthew R; Sprague, Brian L; Henderson, Louise M; Pankratz, V Shane; Cummings, Steven R; Miglioretti, Diana L; Vachon, Celine M; Shepherd, John A

    2017-08-22

    Accurately identifying women with dense breasts (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System [BI-RADS] heterogeneously or extremely dense) who are at high breast cancer risk will facilitate discussions of supplemental imaging and primary prevention. We examined the independent contribution of dense breast volume and BI-RADS breast density to predict invasive breast cancer and whether dense breast volume combined with Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model factors (age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, and BI-RADS breast density) improves identifying women with dense breasts at high breast cancer risk. We conducted a case-control study of 1720 women with invasive cancer and 3686 control subjects. We calculated ORs and 95% CIs for the effect of BI-RADS breast density and Volpara™ automated dense breast volume on invasive cancer risk, adjusting for other BCSC risk model factors plus body mass index (BMI), and we compared C-statistics between models. We calculated BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk, incorporating the adjusted ORs associated with dense breast volume. Compared with women with BI-RADS scattered fibroglandular densities and second-quartile dense breast volume, women with BI-RADS extremely dense breasts and third- or fourth-quartile dense breast volume (75% of women with extremely dense breasts) had high breast cancer risk (OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.84-4.47, and OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.87-3.52, respectively), whereas women with extremely dense breasts and first- or second-quartile dense breast volume were not at significantly increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.53, 95% CI 0.75-3.09, and OR 1.50, 95% CI 0.82-2.73, respectively). Adding continuous dense breast volume to a model with BCSC risk model factors and BMI increased discriminatory accuracy compared with a model with only BCSC risk model factors (C-statistic 0.639, 95% CI 0.623-0.654, vs. C-statistic 0.614, 95% CI 0.598-0.630, respectively; P breasts and fourth

  13. Measurement control program at model facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    A measurement control program for the model plant is described. The discussion includes the technical basis for such a program, the application of measurement control principles to each measurement, and the use of special experiments to estimate measurement error parameters for difficult-to-measure materials. The discussion also describes the statistical aspects of the program, and the documentation procedures used to record, maintain, and process the basic data

  14. Weight, height, body mass index and risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women: a case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahdaninia Mariam

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many women in Iran have a relatively high body mass index. To investigate whether the condition contributes to excess breast cancer cases, a case-control study was conducted to assess the relationships between anthropometric variables and breast cancer risk in Tehran, Iran. Methods All incident cases of breast cancer in the Iranian Centre for Breast Cancer (ICBC were identified through the case records. Eligible cases were all postmenopausal women with histological confirmed diagnosis of breast cancer during 1996 to year 2000. Controls were randomly selected postmenopausal women attending the ICBC for clinical breast examination during the same period. The body mass index (BMI was calculated based on weights and heights as measured by the ICBC nursing staff. Both tests for trend and logistic regression analysis were performed to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals as measures of relative risk. Results In all, 116 breast cancer cases and 116 controls were studied. There were no significant differences between cases and control with regard to most independent variables studied. However, a significant difference was observed between cases and controls indicating that the mean BMI was higher in cases as compared to controls (P = 0.004. Performing logistic regression analysis while controlling for age, age at menopause, family history of breast cancer and parity, the results showed that women with a BMI in the obese range had a three fold increased risk of breast cancer [odds ratio (OR = 3.21, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.15–8.47]. Conclusion The results suggest that obesity in postmenopausal women could increase risk of breast cancer and it merits further investigation in populations such as Iran where it seems that many women are short in height, and have a relatively high body mass index.

  15. Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barend Prinsloo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in SouthAfrica, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

  16. The incremental value of brachial flow-mediated dilation measurements in risk stratification for incident cardiovascular events: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Sanne A E; den Ruijter, Hester M; Bots, Michiel L

    2012-06-01

    Abstract Adequate risk assessment for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is essential as a guide to initiate drug treatment. Current methods based on traditional risk factors could be improved considerably. Although brachial flow-mediated dilation (FMD) predicts subsequent cardiovascular events, its predictive value on top of traditional risk factors is unknown. We performed a systematic review to evaluate the incremental predictive value of FMD on top of traditional risk factors in asymptomatic individuals. Using PubMed and reference tracking, three studies were identified that reported on the incremental value of FMD using change in the area under the curve (AUC). Two large cohort studies found no improvement in AUC when FMD was added to traditional risk prediction models, whereas one small case-control study found an improvement. One study used the net reclassification improvement (NRI) to assess whether FMD measurement leads to correct risk stratification in risk categories. Although this study did not find an improvement in AUC, the NRI was statistically significant. Based on the reclassification results of this study, FMD measurement might be helpful in risk prediction. Evidence supporting the use of FMD measurement in clinical practice for risk stratification for CVD on top of traditional risk factors is limited, and future studies are needed.

  17. Equivalent risky allocation: The new ERA of risk measurement for heterogeneous investors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plunus, S.; Gillet, R.; Hübner, G.M.B.J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces an investor-specific risk measure derived from the linear-exponential (linex) utility function. It combines the notions of risk perception and risk aversion. To make this measure interpretable and comparable with others like variance or value-at-risk, it is translated into an

  18. Risk factors for cataract: A case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ughade Suresh

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study was designed as a hospital-based, group-matched, case-control investigation into the risk factors associated with age-related cataract in central India. The study included 262 cases of age-related cataract and an equal number of controls. A total of 21 risk factors were evaluated: namely, low socioeconomic status (SES, illiteracy, marital status, history of diarrhoea, history of diabetes, glaucoma, use of cholinesterase inhibitors, steroids, spironolactone, nifedipine, analgesics, myopia early in life, renal failure, heavy smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, hypertension, low body mass index (BMI, use of cheaper cooking fuel, working in direct sunlight, family history of cataract, and occupational exposure. In univariate analysis, except marital status, low BMI, renal failure, use of steroids, spironolactone, analgesics, and occupational exposure, all 14 other risk factors were found significantly associated with age-related cataract. Unconditional multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed the significance of low SES, illiteracy, history of diarrhoea, diabetes, glaucoma, myopia, smoking, hypertension and cheap cooking fuel. The etiological role of these risk factors in the outcome of cataract is confirmed by the estimates of attributable risk proportion. The estimates of population attributable risk proportion for these factors highlight the impact of elimination of these risk factors on the reduction of cataract in this population.

  19. Risk-sensitive control of stochastic hybrid systems on infinite time horizon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Runolfsson Thordur

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available A risk-sensitive optimal control problem is considered for a hybrid system that consists of continuous time diffusion process that depends on a discrete valued mode variable that is modeled as a Markov chain. Optimality conditions are presented and conditions for the existence of optimal controls are derived. It is shown that the optimal risk-sensitive control problem is equivalent to the upper value of an associated stochastic differential game, and insight into the contributions of the noise input and mode variable to the risk sensitivity of the cost functional is given. Furthermore, it is shown that due to the mode variable risk sensitivity, the equivalence relationship that has been observed between risk-sensitive and H ∞ control in the nonhybrid case does not hold for stochastic hybrid systems.

  20. Sunway Medical Laboratory Quality Control Plans Based on Six Sigma, Risk Management and Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jairaman, Jamuna; Sakiman, Zarinah; Li, Lee Suan

    2017-03-01

    Sunway Medical Centre (SunMed) implemented Six Sigma, measurement uncertainty, and risk management after the CLSI EP23 Individualized Quality Control Plan approach. Despite the differences in all three approaches, each implementation was beneficial to the laboratory, and none was in conflict with another approach. A synthesis of these approaches, built on a solid foundation of quality control planning, can help build a strong quality management system for the entire laboratory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk-based configuration control: Application of PSA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1992-01-01

    Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur, then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, to minimize the risk from components being unavailable, becomes difficult, because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. Controlling plant configuration from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser controls in areas unimportant to risk. Risk-based configuration control approaches can be used to replace parts of nuclear power plant Technical Specifications. With the advances in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technology, such approaches to improve Technical Specifications and operational safety are feasible. In this paper, we present an analysis of configuration risks, and a framework for risk-based configuration control to achieve the desired control of risk-significant configurations during plant operation

  2. Outbreak of resistant Acinetobacter baumannii- measures and proposal for prevention and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanelli, Roberta Maia de Castro; Jesus, Lenize Adriana de; Clemente, Wanessa Trindade; Lima, Stella Sala Soares; Rezende, Edna Maria; Coutinho, Rosane Luiza; Moreira, Ricardo Luiz Fontes; Neves, Francelli Aparecida Cordeiro; Brás, Nelma de Jesus

    2009-10-01

    Acinetobacter baumannii colonization and infection, frequent in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients, is commonly associated with high morbimortality. Several outbreaks due to multidrug-resistant (MDR) A. baumanii have been reported but few of them in Brazil. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with colonization and infection by MDR and carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii strains isolated from patients admitted to the adult ICU at HC/UFMG. A case-control study was performed from January 2007 to June 2008. Cases were defined as patients colonized or infected by MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii, and controls were patients without MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii isolation, in a 1:2 proportion. For statistical analysis, due to changes in infection control guidelines, infection criteria and the notification process, this study was divided into two periods. During the first period analyzed, from January to December 2007, colonization or infection by MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii was associated with prior infection, invasive device utilization, prior carbapenem use and clinical severity. In the multivariate analysis, prior infection and mechanical ventilation proved to be statistically significant risk factors. Carbapenem use showed a tendency towards a statistical association. During the second study period, from January to June 2008, variables with a significant association with MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii colonization/infection were catheter utilization, carbapenem and third-generation cephalosporin use, hepatic transplantation, and clinical severity. In the multivariate analysis, only CVC use showed a statistical difference. Carbapenem and third-generation cephalosporin use displayed a tendency to be risk factors. Risk factors must be focused on infection control and prevention measures considering A. baumanni dissemination.

  3. Outbreak of resistant Acinetobacter baumannii: measures and proposal for prevention and control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Maia de Castro Romanelli

    Full Text Available Acinetobacter baumannii colonization and infection, frequent in Intensive Care Unit (ICU patients, is commonly associated with high morbimortality. Several outbreaks due to multidrug-resistant (MDR A. baumanii have been reported but few of them in Brazil. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with colonization and infection by MDR and carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii strains isolated from patients admitted to the adult ICU at HC/UFMG. A case-control study was performed from January 2007 to June 2008. Cases were defined as patients colonized or infected by MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii, and controls were patients without MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii isolation, in a 1:2 proportion. For statistical analysis, due to changes in infection control guidelines, infection criteria and the notification process, this study was divided into two periods. During the first period analyzed, from January to December 2007, colonization or infection by MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii was associated with prior infection, invasive device utilization, prior carbapenem use and clinical severity. In the multivariate analysis, prior infection and mechanical ventilation proved to be statistically significant risk factors. Carbapenem use showed a tendency towards a statistical association. During the second study period, from January to June 2008, variables with a significant association with MDR/carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii colonization/infection were catheter utilization, carbapenem and third-generation cephalosporin use, hepatic transplantation, and clinical severity. In the multivariate analysis, only CVC use showed a statistical difference. Carbapenem and third-generation cephalosporin use displayed a tendency to be risk factors. Risk factors must be focused on infection control and prevention measures considering A. baumanni dissemination.

  4. [Control of major cardiovascular risk factors of ischemic heart disease in secondary prevention in Aragón: COCINA study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucalon Arenal, J M; Buisac Ramón, C; Marin Ibáñez, A; Castan Ruiz, S; Blay Cortes, M G; Barrasa Villar, J I

    2016-01-01

    Ischemic heart disease remains a leading cause of death in Spain. According to the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) and European national societies, secondary prevention for these patients consists of control of major cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and suitable lifestyle habits. To determine the degree of control of CVRF in the Aragonese population in secondary prevention. Cross-sectional study of a sample of 705 patients of Aragon who had suffered a cardiac event, selected opportunistically in consultations of family physicians participating in the 3 provinces of Aragon. The study was conducted in the second half of 2012. To measure the degree of control of different FRVC and lifestyle habits in this population. Anthropometric, different cardiovascular risk factors, treatment and lifestyle. 58% of men and 52% of women met criteria for monitoring of measured variables. The best result was obtained with smoking cessation and the worst with BMI. Hypertension, Dyslipidemia and Diabetes Mellitus achieve poor control results. The results show that the degree of control of CVRF is still low, especially in variables such as dyslipidemia and Diabetes Mellitus. Only 16.5% of control patients met criteria given the pharmacologically-modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Restricted Coherent Risk Measures and Actuarial Solvency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos E. Kountzakis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We prove a general dual representation form for restricted coherent risk measures, and we apply it to a minimization problem of the required solvency capital for an insurance company.

  6. Meta-Analysis: Risk of Tics Associated With Psychostimulant Use in Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Stephanie C; Mulqueen, Jilian M; Ferracioli-Oda, Eduardo; Stuckelman, Zachary D; Coughlin, Catherine G; Leckman, James F; Bloch, Michael H

    2015-09-01

    Clinical practice currently restricts the use of psychostimulant medications in children with tics or a family history of tics for fear that tics will develop or worsen as a side effect of treatment. Our goal was to conduct a meta-analysis to examine the risk of new onset or worsening of tics as an adverse event of psychostimulants in randomized, placebo-controlled trials. We conducted a PubMed search to identify all double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials examining the efficacy of psychostimulant medications in the treatment of children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). We used a fixed effects meta-analysis with risk ratio of new onset or worsening tics in children treated with psychostimulants compared to placebo. We used stratified subgroup analysis and meta-regression to examine the effects of stimulant type, dose, duration of treatment, recorder of side effect data, trial design, and mean age of participants on the measured risk of tics. We identified 22 studies involving 2,385 children with ADHD for inclusion in our meta-analysis. New onset tics or worsening of tic symptoms were commonly reported in the psychostimulant (event rate = 5.7%, 95% CI = 3.7%-8.6%) and placebo groups (event rate = 6.5%, 95% CI = 4.4%-9.5%). The risk of new onset or worsening of tics associated with psychostimulant treatment was similar to that observed with placebo (risk ratio = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.78-1.27, z = -0.05, p = .962). Type of psychostimulant, dose, duration of treatment, recorder, and participant age did not affect risk of new onset or worsening of tics. Crossover studies were associated with a significantly greater measured risk of tics with psychostimulant use compared to parallel group trials. Meta-analysis of controlled trials does not support an association between new onset or worsening of tics and psychostimulant use. Clinicians may want to consider rechallenging children who report new onset or worsening of tics with psychostimulant

  7. Fundamental data analyses for measurement control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, K.; Barlich, G.L.; Fazal, B.; Strittmatter, R.B.

    1989-01-01

    An important aspect of a complete measurement control program for special nuclear materials is the analysis of data from periodic control measurements of known standards. This chapter covers the following topics: basic algorithms including an introduction and terminology, the standard case (known mean and standard deviation), Shewart control charts, and sequential test for bias; modifications for nonstandard cases including modification for changing (decaying) standard value, modifications for deteriorating measurement precision, and modifications when repeated measurements are made; maintenance information including estimation of historical standard deviation (standard case), estimation of historical standard deviation (changing with time), normality and outliners, and other tests of randomness

  8. Volatility and correlation-based systemic risk measures in the US market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Civitarese, Jamil

    2016-10-01

    This paper deals with the problem of how to use simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. Using three simple examples taken from previous literature, one based on raw and partial correlations, another based on the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix and the last one based on an eigenvalue entropy, a Granger-causation analysis revealed some of them are not always a good measure of risk in the S&P 500 and in the VIX. The measures selected do not Granger-cause the VIX index in all windows selected; therefore, in the sense of risk as volatility, the indicators are not always suitable. Nevertheless, their results towards returns are similar to previous works that accept them. A deeper analysis has shown that any symmetric measure based on eigenvalue decomposition of correlation matrices, however, is not useful as a measure of "correlation" risk. The empirical counterpart analysis of this proposition stated that negative correlations are usually small and, therefore, do not heavily distort the behavior of the indicator.

  9. Risk-based configuration control: Application of PRA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations form a risk perspective. The configurations of particular interest involve components which are down during power operation. Controlling plant configurations from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser control in areas unimportant to risk

  10. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the m otivational density , to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

  11. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

  12. Protecting the autonomy of states to enact tobacco control measures under trade and investment agreements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Andrew; Sheargold, Elizabeth

    2015-06-01

    Since the adoption of the WHO's WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, governments have been pursuing progressively stronger and more wide-reaching tobacco control measures. In response, tobacco companies are frequently using international trade and investment agreements as tools to challenge domestic tobacco control measures. Several significant new trade and investment agreements that some fear may provide new legal avenues to the tobacco industry to challenge health measures are currently under negotiation, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (a 12 party agreement of Asia-Pacific regional countries) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (an agreement between the USA and the European Union). This commentary examines different options for treaty provisions that the parties could employ in these agreements to minimise legal risks relating to tobacco control measures. It recommends that parties take a comprehensive approach, combining provisions that minimise the potential costs of litigation with provisions that increase the likelihood of a state successfully defending tobacco control measures in such litigation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  13. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

  14. Tuberculosis and mass gatherings-opportunities for defining burden, transmission risk, and the optimal surveillance, prevention, and control measures at the annual Hajj pilgrimage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumla, Alimuddin; Saeed, Abdulaziz Bin; Alotaibi, Badriah; Yezli, Saber; Dar, Osman; Bieh, Kingsley; Bates, Matthew; Tayeb, Tamara; Mwaba, Peter; Shafi, Shuja; McCloskey, Brian; Petersen, Eskild; Azhar, Esam I

    2016-06-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) is now the most common infectious cause of death worldwide. In 2014, an estimated 9.6 million people developed active TB. There were an estimated three million people with active TB including 360000 with multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) who were not diagnosed, and such people continue to fuel TB transmission in the community. Accurate data on the actual burden of TB and the transmission risk associated with mass gatherings are scarce and unreliable due to the small numbers studied and methodological issues. Every year, an estimated 10 million pilgrims from 184 countries travel to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) to perform the Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages. A large majority of pilgrims come from high TB burden and MDR-TB endemic areas and thus many may have undiagnosed active TB, sub-clinical TB, and latent TB infection. The Hajj pilgrimage provides unique opportunities for the KSA and the 184 countries from which pilgrims originate, to conduct high quality priority research studies on TB under the remit of the Global Centre for Mass Gatherings Medicine. Research opportunities are discussed, including those related to the definition of the TB burden, transmission risk, and the optimal surveillance, prevention, and control measures at the annual Hajj pilgrimage. The associated data are required to develop international recommendations and guidelines for TB management and control at mass gathering events. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

  16. Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test...... the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). METHODS: Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin...... Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high...

  17. Aspects of control measures in occupational hygiene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lumens, M.

    1997-01-01


    This thesis focuses on two aspects which are of major importance in the broad field of control measures in occupational hygiene: the selection of control measures in a structured way and the impact of factors modifying the effectiveness of these control measures.

    The main

  18. Banding the world together; the global growth of control banding and qualitative occupational risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalk, David M; Heussen, Ga Henri

    2011-12-01

    Control Banding (CB) strategies to prevent work-related illness and injury for 2.5 billion workers without access to health and safety professionals has grown exponentially this last decade. CB originates from the pharmaceutical industry to control active pharmaceutical ingredients without a complete toxicological basis and therefore no occupational exposure limits. CB applications have broadened into chemicals in general - including new emerging risks like nanomaterials and recently into ergonomics and injury prevention. CB is an action-oriented qualitative risk assessment strategy offering solutions and control measures to users through "toolkits". Chemical CB toolkits are user-friendly approaches used to achieve workplace controls in the absence of firm toxicological and quantitative exposure information. The model (technical) validation of these toolkits is well described, however firm operational analyses (implementation aspects) are lacking. Consequentially, it is often not known if toolkit use leads to successful interventions at individual workplaces. This might lead to virtual safe workplaces without knowing if workers are truly protected. Upcoming international strategies from the World Health Organization Collaborating Centers request assistance in developing and evaluating action-oriented procedures for workplace risk assessment and control. It is expected that to fulfill this strategy's goals, CB approaches will continue its important growth in protecting workers.

  19. Banding the World Together; The Global Growth of Control Banding and Qualitative Occupational Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Zalk

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Control Banding (CB strategies to prevent work-related illness and injury for 2.5 billion workers without access to health and safety professionals has grown exponentially this last decade. CB originates from the pharmaceutical industry to control active pharmaceutical ingredients without a complete toxicological basis and therefore no occupational exposure limits. CB applications have broadened into chemicals in general - including new emerging risks like nanomaterials and recently into ergonomics and injury prevention. CB is an action-oriented qualitative risk assessment strategy offering solutions and control measures to users through “toolkits”. Chemical CB toolkits are user-friendly approaches used to achieve workplace controls in the absence of firm toxicological and quantitative exposure information. The model (technical validation of these toolkits is well described, however firm operational analyses (implementation aspects are lacking. Consequentially, it is often not known if toolkit use leads to successful interventions at individual workplaces. This might lead to virtual safe workplaces without knowing if workers are truly protected. Upcoming international strategies from the World Health Organization Collaborating Centers request assistance in developing and evaluating action-oriented procedures for workplace risk assessment and control. It is expected that to fulfill this strategy’s goals, CB approaches will continue its important growth in protecting workers.

  20. ABO blood group and esophageal carcinoma risk: from a case-control study in Chinese population to meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Liu, Lei; Wang, Zhiwei; Lu, Xiaopeng; Wei, Min; Lin, Tianlong; Zhang, Yixin; Jiang, Songqi; Wang, Qiang; Cao, Ziang; Shi, Minxin

    2014-10-01

    The association between ABO blood group and the risk of esophageal carcinoma (EC) in previously published studies is uncertain and conflicting. The aim of the current study was to determine the correlation of ABO blood group with EC risk via a case-control study and meta-analysis. We performed a population-based case-control study of 3,595 cases and 41,788 controls in Chinese population to evaluate the association between ABO blood group and EC risk. Then, a comprehensive meta-analysis combining our original data and previously published data was conducted to clearly discern the real relationship. The strength of association was measured by odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). In our case-control study, the risk of EC in blood group B was significantly higher than that in non-B groups (A, O, and AB) (OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.09-1.21). Compared with non-O groups (A, B, and AB), individuals with blood group O demonstrated a reduced risk of EC (OR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.85-0.94). The meta-analysis also indicated that blood group B was associated with significantly higher EC risk (OR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.10-1.31), and people with blood group O had a decreased EC risk (OR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99). Neither the case-control study nor the meta-analysis produced any significant association of blood group A or AB with EC risk. Results from our case-control study and the followed meta-analysis confirmed that there was an increased risk of EC in blood group B individuals, whereas a decreased risk of EC was observed in blood group O individuals.

  1. A case-control study to assess the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assi, Valentina; Massat, Nathalie J; Thomas, Susan; MacKay, James; Warwick, Jane; Kataoka, Masako; Warsi, Iqbal; Brentnall, Adam; Warren, Ruth; Duffy, Stephen W

    2015-05-15

    Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer, but its potential application in risk management is not clear, partly due to uncertainties about its interaction with other breast cancer risk factors. We aimed to quantify the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer (average lifetime risk of 23%), in particular in premenopausal women, and to investigate its relationship with other breast cancer risk factors in this population. We present the results from a case-control study nested with the FH01 cohort study of 6,710 women mostly aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer. One hundred and three cases of breast cancer were age-matched to one or two controls. Density was measured by semiautomated interactive thresholding. Absolute density, but not percent density, was a significant risk factor for breast cancer in this population after adjusting for area of nondense tissue (OR per 10 cm(2) = 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, p = 0.04). The effect was stronger in premenopausal women, who made up the majority of the study population. Absolute density remained a significant predictor of breast cancer risk after adjusting for age at menarche, age at first live birth, parity, past or present hormone replacement therapy, and the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate of breast cancer. Absolute density can improve breast cancer risk stratification and delineation of high-risk groups alongside the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate. © 2014 UICC.

  2. Hospitalisation for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and risk of suicide: a population-based case–control study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strid, JM; Christiansen, Christian Fynbo; Olsen, Morten Smærup

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To examine risk of suicide among individuals with hospitalised chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and to profile differences according to sex, age, psychiatric history, and recency and frequency of COPD hospitalisations. Design Nested case–control study. Setting Data were...... retrieved from Danish national registries. Participants All suicide cases aged 40–95 years deceased between 1981 and 2006 in Denmark (n=19 869) and up to 20 live population controls per case matched on sex and date of birth (n=321 867 controls). Main outcome measures The relative risk of suicide associated...... with COPD was computed using conditional logistic regression and adjusted for effects of psychiatric history and important sociodemographic factors. Results In our study population, 3% of suicide cases had been hospitalised for COPD compared with 1% of matched population controls. Thus, a hospitalised COPD...

  3. Risk Management and Viability of Public Organizations. Development of a Risk Measurement Tool: The Case of Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iordanis Eleftheriadis

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper provides an important contribution towards the development of a valid, reliable and cost-effective instrument that reduces operational and economic risk levels in public sector organizations. Design/methodology/approach: A quantitative methodology based on the collection of primary data via a questionnaire has been adopted in this research. Findings: The research results showed that the measurement tool selected, applied, presented and proposed is comprised of three (3 scales. The reliability analysis proved that all three scales are reliable; therefore, they are suitable for use as a risk measurement instrument. Research limitations/implications: The study's academic contribution is the application and testing of the aforementioned measurement instruments, which can now be utilised by researchers in the field of risk management, to further advance the study of risk management in public organizations in Greece. On the empirical level, the implementation of these three measurement instruments can assist public organizations in Greece via an easy and fast assessment of economic and operational risks. Originality/value: This tool can help public organizations gain insight into the level of risk they face at any given point in time in order plan their actions accordingly. At the same time, central state administration will have the necessary tools to monitor and support the organizations it evaluates.

  4. CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Mbachu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

  5. Rationale and design of INTERSTROKE: a global case-control study of risk factors for stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Donnell, M; Serpault, Damien Xavier; Diener, C

    2010-01-01

    with a first stroke within 72 h of hospital presentation in whom CT or MRI is performed. Proxy respondents are used for cases unable to communicate. Etiological and topographical stroke subtype is documented for all cases. Controls are hospital- and community-based, matched for gender, ethnicity and age (+/-5...... years). A questionnaire (cases and controls) is used to acquire information on known and proposed risk factors for stroke. Cardiovascular (e.g. blood pressure) and anthropometric (e.g. waist-to-hip ratio) measurements are obtained at the time of interview. Nonfasting blood samples and random urine......-income countries is inadequate, where a very large burden of stroke occurs. Accordingly, a similar epidemiological study is required for stroke, to inform effective population-based strategies to reduce the risk of stroke. Methods: INTERSTROKE is an international, multicenter case-control study. Cases are patients...

  6. Risk Management And Organisational Profitability | Ukandu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Findings revealed that certain measures like: risk reduction/prevention, risk avoidance, risk sharing, risk retention, risk modification, etc. could be adopted to reduce the impact of risk on production. The paper posits that if the proper risk control measures and effective planning techniques are applied, the impact of risk ...

  7. Urinary strontium and the risk of breast cancer: A case-control study in Guangzhou, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Li-Juan [The School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080 (China); Tang, Lu-Ying [The School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080 (China); The Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630 (China); He, Jian-Rong [The School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080 (China); Guangzhou Women and Children' s Medical Center, Guangzhou 510623 (China); Su, Yi; Cen, Yu-Ling; Yu, Dan-Dan [The School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080 (China); Wu, Bang-Hua [The Guangdong Prevention and Treatment Center for Occupational Diseases, Guangzhou 510300 (China); Lin, Ying [The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080 (China); Chen, Wei-Qing [The School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080 (China); Song, Er-Wei, E-mail: songerwei02@yahoo.com.cn [The Second Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West, Guangzhou 510120 (China); Ren, Ze-Fang, E-mail: renzef@mail.sysu.edu.cn [The School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080 (China)

    2012-01-15

    Strontium has been widely used in industries like electronic and pharmacy. It has a carcinogenic potential, however, and no study has been conducted to evaluate its effects on cancer risk. The aim of this study was to explore the possible association between strontium and breast cancer risk in a case-control study including 240 incident invasive breast cancer patients and 246 age-matched controls. We measured the urinary concentrations of strontium by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and conducted face-to-face interviews to obtain information on potential breast cancer risk factors. Multivariable analysis was used to estimate the association. Creatinine-adjusted levels [median (25th, 75th) {mu}g/g] of strontium were 155.59 (99.05, 230.70) in the breast cancer patients and 119.62 (81.97, 163.76) in the controls. Women in the highest tertile of strontium showed 124% increased risk of breast cancer, when compared with those in the lowest tertile after adjustment for the potential risk factors [OR (95% CI): 2.24 (1.42-3.81)]. This association was particularly strong for HER2 positive breast cancer [OR (95% CI): 10.92 (3.53-33.77)], and only occurred among premenopausal women. These results suggest a potential role of strontium in the development of breast cancer and urge further studies on the environmental contamination and the physiological and pathological mechanisms of strontium.

  8. Canadian Cancer Risk Management Model: evaluation of cancer control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, William K; Wolfson, Michael C; Flanagan, William M; Shin, Janey; Goffin, John; Miller, Anthony B; Asakawa, Keiko; Earle, Craig; Mittmann, Nicole; Fairclough, Lee; Oderkirk, Jillian; Finès, Philippe; Gribble, Stephen; Hoch, Jeffrey; Hicks, Chantal; Omariba, D Walter R; Ng, Edward

    2013-04-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a decision support tool to assess the potential benefits and costs of new healthcare interventions. The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (CPAC) commissioned the development of a Cancer Risk Management Model (CRMM)--a computer microsimulation model that simulates individual lives one at a time, from birth to death, taking account of Canadian demographic and labor force characteristics, risk factor exposures, and health histories. Information from all the simulated lives is combined to produce aggregate measures of health outcomes for the population or for particular subpopulations. The CRMM can project the population health and economic impacts of cancer control programs in Canada and the impacts of major risk factors, cancer prevention, and screening programs and new cancer treatments on population health and costs to the healthcare system. It estimates both the direct costs of medical care, as well as lost earnings and impacts on tax revenues. The lung and colorectal modules are available through the CPAC Web site (www.cancerview.ca/cancerrriskmanagement) to registered users where structured scenarios can be explored for their projected impacts. Advanced users will be able to specify new scenarios or change existing modules by varying input parameters or by accessing open source code. Model development is now being extended to cervical and breast cancers.

  9. Neuromuscular Control Deficits and the Risk of Subsequent Injury after a Concussion: A Scoping Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, David R; Lynall, Robert C; Buckley, Thomas A; Herman, Daniel C

    2018-05-01

    An emerging area of research has identified that an increased risk of musculoskeletal injury may exist upon returning to sports after a sport-related concussion. The mechanisms underlying this recently discovered phenomenon, however, remain unknown. One theorized reason for this increased injury risk includes residual neuromuscular control deficits that remain impaired despite clinical recovery. Thus, the objectives of this review were: (1) to summarize the literature examining the relationship between concussion and risk of subsequent injury and (2) to summarize the literature for one mechanism with a theorized association with this increased injury risk, i.e., neuromuscular control deficits observed during gait after concussion under dual-task conditions. Two separate reviews were conducted consistent with both specified objectives. Studies published before 9 December, 2016 were identified using PubMed, Web of Science, and Academic Search Premier (EBSCOhost). Inclusion for the objective 1 search included dependent variables of quantitative measurements of musculoskeletal injury after concussion. Inclusion criteria for the objective 2 search included dependent variables pertaining to gait, dynamic balance control, and dual-task function. A total of 32 studies were included in the two reviews (objective 1 n = 10, objective 2 n = 22). According to a variety of study designs, athletes appear to have an increased risk of sustaining a musculoskeletal injury following a concussion. Furthermore, dual-task neuromuscular control deficits may continue to exist after patients report resolution of concussion symptoms, or perform normally on other clinical concussion tests. Therefore, musculoskeletal injury risk appears to increase following a concussion and persistent motor system and attentional deficits also seem to exist after a concussion. While not yet experimentally tested, these motor system and attentional deficits may contribute to the risk of sustaining a

  10. Testing the efficacy of a brief sexual risk reduction intervention among high-risk American Indian adults: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Chambers

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background American Indian adults are more likely to experience co-occurring mental health and substance use disorders than adults of other racial/ethnic groups and are disproportionately burdened by the most common sexually transmitted infections, namely chlamydia and gonorrhea. Several behavioral interventions are proven efficacious in lowering risk for sexually transmitted infection in various populations and, if adapted to address barriers experienced by American Indian adults who suffer from mental health and substance use problems, may be useful for dissemination in American Indian communities. The proposed study aims to examine the efficacy of an adapted evidence-based intervention to increase condom use and decrease sexual risk-taking and substance use among American Indian adults living in a reservation-based community in the Southwestern United States. Methods/Design The proposed study is a randomized controlled trial to test the efficacy of an adapted evidence-based intervention compared to a control condition. Participants will be American Indian adults ages 18–49 years old who had a recent episode of binge substance use and/or suicide ideation. Participants will be randomized to the intervention, a two-session risk-reduction counseling intervention or the control condition, optimized standard care. All participants will be offered a self-administered sexually transmitted infection test. Participants will complete assessments at baseline, 3 and 6 months follow-up. The primary outcome measure is condom use at last sex. Discussion This is one of the first randomized controlled trials to assess the efficacy of an adapted evidence-based intervention for reducing sexual risk behaviors among AI adults with substance use and mental health problems. If proven successful, there will be an efficacious program for reducing risk behaviors among high-risk adults that can be disseminated in American Indian communities as well as other

  11. Poverty Measurement Under Income Risk. Armutsmessung bei Einkommensrisiken

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weikard, H.P.

    2004-01-01

    Poverty indices are usually calculated on the basis of (cross section) income data from the past. As past income is fixed and future income is uncertain such measurement does not reflect the ex ante risk of falling into poverty. This paper presents refinements of commonly used poverty measures to

  12. Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijleveld, F.D. Commandeur, J.J.F. Gould, P. & Koopman, S.J.

    2006-01-01

    Risk is at the center of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning counter- measures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers on a daily basis and the risk of infection

  13. Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

    2003-01-01

    Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures…

  14. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  15. Business Process Risk Management, Compliance and Internal Control: A Research Agenda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rikhardsson, Pall M.; Best, Peter; Green, Peter

    (COSO). Based on an inductive methodological approach using literature review and interviews with managers engaged in risk management and internal control projects, this paper identifies three main areas that currently have management attention. These are business process risk management, compliance......Integration of risk management and management control is emerging as an important area in the wake of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and with ongoing development of frameworks such as the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework from the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission...... management and internal control development. This paper discusses these areas and identifies a series of research questions regarding these critical issues....

  16. Measuring and controlling greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourrier, Herve; LAFONT, Bruno; Fischer, Severin; Leonard, Damien; Tutenuit, Claire

    2011-05-01

    As providing a reporting of their greenhouse gas emissions has become mandatory for a large number of French companies, this publication proposes a methodology to perform an assessment or measurement, and a control of such emissions. In its first part, it explains why measurements are required: indication of concerned gases, international consensus to limit temperature rise, definition and chronology of the main steps adopted at the international level and which must be considered in the approach adopted by enterprises in this respect. It outlines the benefits of such a measurement for the enterprise in terms of competitiveness, personnel commitment, new markets and products, image, compliance with the law, operational and financial aspects, and so on. It identifies the various stakeholders to be informed: civil society, financial community, public authorities, clients and consumers, personnel, suppliers. It outlines the diversity and evolution of legal frameworks at the international level as well as at national levels. While evoking many examples of French companies (SNCF, EDF, Seche Environnement, RTE, Michelin, Arcelormittal, AREVA, Air France, EADS-Airbus, AXA, Veolia, and so on), the next part addresses how to measure emissions. It outlines the complexity of the methodological landscape with its various criteria, evokes the various existing standards, outlines the distinction between organisation-based, product-based and project-based approaches, and the distinction between direct and indirect emissions in relationship with the notion of scope. It comments the existence of sector-based methodologies and guidelines, and discusses some difficulties and methodological decisions. The third part proposes some lessons learned from the experience which could lead to a harmonisation of methodologies, proposes a synthesis of reporting approaches, outlines risks and opportunities related to communication

  17. Measurement of biofilm thickness. An effective Legionella risk assessment tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foret, Christophe [BKG France, Arnage (France); Martemianov, Serguei [Poitiers Univ. (FR). Lab. of Thermal Study (LET); Moscow Univ. (Russian Federation). Frumkin Inst. of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry; Hater, Wolfgang [BK Giulini GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany); Merlet, Nicole; Chaussec, Guenole; Tribollet, Bernard

    2010-02-15

    The best way to prevent the risk of bacterial growth in water systems is to monitor and control the microorganisms (biofilm) attached to pipe walls. Three years of laboratory research led two Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (French National Center for Scientific Research) teams (UMR 6008 and UPR 15) to develop a tool designed to determine the average biofilm thickness. The average biofilm thickness measurements carried out on pilot plants fed with natural water were sufficiently accurate and sensitive to monitor the formation and development of biofilm in a water system and to determine the efficiency of the applied treatments. The implementation of appropriate treatments (type and dose of the treatment product) leads to a significant reduction in or even complete removal of the porous layer on the material surface. A reduction of the attached biomass, measured by the sensor, is connected to a decrease in the density of the bacterial attached to the material (viable flora in the plate count agar environment). (orig.)

  18. Association of Anthropometric Measurement Methods with Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaan Sözmen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study is to compare the predic­tive power of anthropometric indices for risk of developing Coronary Heart Disease (CHD or CHD death. Methods: We used cross-sectional data from nationally representative Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Sur­vey conducted by the Ministry of Health in 2011. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, waist to height ratio (WHtR, body adiposity index (BAI and A Body Shape Index (ABSI formed the anthropometric measures. For each participant risk of de­veloping CHD or dying from CVDs were calculated based on Framingham and SCORE risk equations. Predictive ability of anthropometric measurements was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results: Anthropometric measurements of central obe­sity recorded higher area under the ROC curve (AUC values than BMI in both men and women. While ABSI had the highest AUC values for Framingham 10-year pre­dicted risk (FRS for CHD death (AUC = 0.613, SCORE 10-year risk for CVD death (AUC = 0.633, in women AUC for ABSI was the highest for only SCORE risk threshold (AUC = 0.705. Among women, WHtR was found to be the best indicator for estimating CHD incidence (AUC = 0.706 and death from CVD (AUC = 0.696. Conclusion: Compared to traditional anthropometric measurements such as BMI, ABSI was a better indicator for given thresholds for estimating the risk of developing CHD and CVD death in men. Among women WHtR made better predictions for FRS thresholds, however, ABSI was better for predicting 10-year risk of CVD death calculated by SCORE risk equation.

  19. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M. M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364248149; Raben, I. M E; Ramírez, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Spruijt, M. P N; Faaij, A. P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures

  20. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO 2pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M.M.J.; Raben. I.M.E.; Ramírez, A.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design,costs and routing of CO2pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2pipelinetransport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is

  1. Protocol for the 'e-Nudge trial': a randomised controlled trial of electronic feedback to reduce the cardiovascular risk of individuals in general practice [ISRCTN64828380

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Tim A; Thorogood, Margaret; Griffiths, Frances; Munday, Stephen

    2006-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease (including coronary heart disease and stroke) is a major cause of death and disability in the United Kingdom, and is to a large extent preventable, by lifestyle modification and drug therapy. The recent standardisation of electronic codes for cardiovascular risk variables through the United Kingdom's new General Practice contract provides an opportunity for the application of risk algorithms to identify high risk individuals. This randomised controlled trial will test the benefits of an automated system of alert messages and practice searches to identify those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease in primary care databases. Design Patients over 50 years old in practice databases will be randomised to the intervention group that will receive the alert messages and searches, and a control group who will continue to receive usual care. In addition to those at high estimated risk, potentially high risk patients will be identified who have insufficient data to allow a risk estimate to be made. Further groups identified will be those with possible undiagnosed diabetes, based either on elevated past recorded blood glucose measurements, or an absence of recent blood glucose measurement in those with established cardiovascular disease. Outcome measures The intervention will be applied for two years, and outcome data will be collected for a further year. The primary outcome measure will be the annual rate of cardiovascular events in the intervention and control arms of the study. Secondary measures include the proportion of patients at high estimated cardiovascular risk, the proportion of patients with missing data for a risk estimate, and the proportion with undefined diabetes status at the end of the trial. PMID:16646967

  2. Protocol for the 'e-Nudge trial': a randomised controlled trial of electronic feedback to reduce the cardiovascular risk of individuals in general practice [ISRCTN64828380

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Griffiths Frances

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (including coronary heart disease and stroke is a major cause of death and disability in the United Kingdom, and is to a large extent preventable, by lifestyle modification and drug therapy. The recent standardisation of electronic codes for cardiovascular risk variables through the United Kingdom's new General Practice contract provides an opportunity for the application of risk algorithms to identify high risk individuals. This randomised controlled trial will test the benefits of an automated system of alert messages and practice searches to identify those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease in primary care databases. Design Patients over 50 years old in practice databases will be randomised to the intervention group that will receive the alert messages and searches, and a control group who will continue to receive usual care. In addition to those at high estimated risk, potentially high risk patients will be identified who have insufficient data to allow a risk estimate to be made. Further groups identified will be those with possible undiagnosed diabetes, based either on elevated past recorded blood glucose measurements, or an absence of recent blood glucose measurement in those with established cardiovascular disease. Outcome measures The intervention will be applied for two years, and outcome data will be collected for a further year. The primary outcome measure will be the annual rate of cardiovascular events in the intervention and control arms of the study. Secondary measures include the proportion of patients at high estimated cardiovascular risk, the proportion of patients with missing data for a risk estimate, and the proportion with undefined diabetes status at the end of the trial.

  3. Risk and Management Control: A Partial Least Square Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Pontoppidan, Iens Christian

    Risk and economic theory goes many year back (e.g. to Keynes & Knight 1921) and risk/uncertainty belong to one of the explanations for the existence of the firm (Coarse, 1937). The present financial crisis going on in the past years have re-accentuated risk and the need of coherence...... and interrelations between risk and areas within management accounting. The idea is that management accounting should be able to conduct a valid feed forward but also predictions for decision making including risk. This study reports the test of a theoretical model using partial least squares (PLS) on survey data...... and a external attitude dimension. The results have important implications for both management control research and for the management control systems design for the way accountants consider the element of risk in their different tasks, both operational and strategic. Specifically, it seems that different risk...

  4. Vibration perception threshold in relation to postural control and fall risk assessment in elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Mettelinge, Tine Roman; Calders, Patrick; Palmans, Tanneke; Vanden Bossche, Luc; Van Den Noortgate, Nele; Cambier, Dirk

    2013-09-01

    This study investigates (i) the potential discriminative role of a clinical measure of peripheral neuropathy (PN) in assessing postural performance and fall risk and (ii) whether the integration of a simple screening vibration perception threshold (VPT) for PN in any physical (fall risk) assessment among elderly should be recommended, even if they do not suffer from DM. One hundred and ninety-five elderly were entered in a four-group model: DM with PN (D+; n = 75), DM without PN (D-; n = 28), non-diabetic elderly with idiopathic PN (C+; n = 31) and non-diabetic elderly without PN (C-; n = 61). Posturographic sway parameters were captured during different static balance conditions (AMTI AccuGait, Watertown, MA). VPT, fall data, Mini-Mental State Examination and Clock Drawing Test were registered. Two-factor repeated-measures ANOVA was used to compare between groups and across balance conditions. The groups with PN demonstrated a strikingly comparable, though bigger sway, and a higher prospective fall incidence than their peers without PN. The indication of PN, irrespective of its cause, interferes with postural control and fall incidence. The integration of a simple screening for PN (like bio-thesiometry) in any fall risk assessment among elderly is highly recommended. Implications for Rehabilitation The indication of peripheral neuropathy (PN), irrespective of its cause, interferes with postural control and fall incidence. Therefore, the integration of a simple screening for PN (like bio-thesiometry) in any fall risk assessment among elderly is highly recommended. It might be useful to integrate somatosensory stimulation in rehabilitation programs designed for fall prevention.

  5. Risk Measurement of Equity Markets and Private Investor Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav Škapa

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this article: The aim of this paper is to evaluate and determine risk profile of equities markets and conclude consequency for private investor portfolios. There is summarized broad issue of risk measuremen with a focuse on downside risk measurement principle and giving into context with expected utility theory and loss aversion theory. Methodology/methods: The suitable statistical methods (mainly robust statistical methods have been used for estimation of selected characteristics and ratios. There is used a computer intensive method (a bootstrap method for estimating risk characteristics for equity markets, indicators and ratios. Scientific aim: The main scientific aim is to use a complex of more sophisticated and theoretically advanced statistical techniques and apply them on on the finding of the expected utility theory and the loss aversion theory. Findings: A main finding should be reckon a using of results of loss aversion theory applied into empirical evidence of risk profile of equity markets which led to the finding that more reliable and more suitable evaluation of risk of equity markets is downside risk and Sortino ratio from the perpective of private investor. Conclusion: Using downside risk measurement is revealing as it lays bare the “true” risk of investing in stock markets mainly for risk averse private investors. A bootstrap method with down side risk metric can evaluate risk in more appropriate way, and it is also more suitable if statistical characteristics do not fulfil a normal distribution assumption (mostly because of fat tails or outliers. And lastly in general, investors in emerging market (e.g. Visegrad´s countries are rewarded with higher return, but if things go wrong, the damage can be severe and detrimental to performance.

  6. Measurement error and timing of predictor values for multivariable risk prediction models are poorly reported.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittle, Rebecca; Peat, George; Belcher, John; Collins, Gary S; Riley, Richard D

    2018-05-18

    Measurement error in predictor variables may threaten the validity of clinical prediction models. We sought to evaluate the possible extent of the problem. A secondary objective was to examine whether predictors are measured at the intended moment of model use. A systematic search of Medline was used to identify a sample of articles reporting the development of a clinical prediction model published in 2015. After screening according to a predefined inclusion criteria, information on predictors, strategies to control for measurement error and intended moment of model use were extracted. Susceptibility to measurement error for each predictor was classified into low and high risk. Thirty-three studies were reviewed, including 151 different predictors in the final prediction models. Fifty-one (33.7%) predictors were categorised as high risk of error, however this was not accounted for in the model development. Only 8 (24.2%) studies explicitly stated the intended moment of model use and when the predictors were measured. Reporting of measurement error and intended moment of model use is poor in prediction model studies. There is a need to identify circumstances where ignoring measurement error in prediction models is consequential and whether accounting for the error will improve the predictions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. University building safety index measurement using risk and implementation matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, A.; Arumsari, F.; Maryani, A.

    2018-04-01

    Many high rise building constructed in several universities in Indonesia. The high-rise building management must provide the safety planning and proper safety equipment in each part of the building. Unfortunately, most of the university in Indonesia have not been applying safety policy yet and less awareness on treating safety facilities. Several fire accidents in university showed that some significant risk should be managed by the building management. This research developed a framework for measuring the high rise building safety index in university The framework is not only assessed the risk magnitude but also designed modular building safety checklist for measuring the safety implementation level. The safety checklist has been developed for 8 types of the university rooms, i.e.: office, classroom, 4 type of laboratories, canteen, and library. University building safety index determined using risk-implementation matrix by measuring the risk magnitude and assessing the safety implementation level. Building Safety Index measurement has been applied in 4 high rise buildings in ITS Campus. The building assessment showed that the rectorate building in secure condition and chemical department building in beware condition. While the library and administration center building was in less secure condition.

  8. Increasing young adults' condom use intentions and behaviour through changing chlamydia risk and coping appraisals: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial of efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newby, Katie V; French, David P; Brown, Katherine E; Lecky, Donna M

    2013-05-30

    Chlamydia is the most commonly diagnosed sexually transmitted infection (STI) in England and has serious public health consequences. Young people carry a disproportionate burden of infection. A number of social cognition models identify risk appraisal as a primary motivator of behaviour suggesting that changing risk appraisals for STIs may be an effective strategy in motivating protective behaviour. Meta-analytic evidence indicates that the relationship between risk appraisal and health behaviour is small, but studies examining this relationship have been criticised for their many conceptual and methodological weaknesses. The effect of risk appraisal on health behaviour may therefore be of larger size. The proposed study aims to examine the efficacy of an intervention to increase condom use intentions and behaviour amongst young people through changing chlamydia risk and coping appraisals. Coping appraisal is targeted to avoid the intervention being counterproductive amongst recipients who do not feel able to perform the behaviour required to reduce the threat. An experimental design with follow-up, a conditional measure of risk appraisal, and analysis which controls for past behaviour, enable the relationship between risk appraisal and protective behaviour to be accurately assessed. The proposed study is a two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial using a waiting-list control design to test the efficacy of the intervention compared to a control group. Participants will be school pupils aged 13-16 years old recruited from approximately ten secondary schools. Schools will be randomised into each arm. Participants will receive their usual teaching on STIs but those in the intervention condition will additionally receive a single-session sex education lesson on chlamydia. Measures will be taken at baseline, post-intervention and at follow-up three months later. The primary outcome measure is intention to use condoms with casual sexual partners. As far as the authors

  9. 76 FR 38293 - Risk Management Controls for Brokers or Dealers With Market Access

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-30

    ... 3235-AK53 Risk Management Controls for Brokers or Dealers With Market Access AGENCY: Securities and... of risk management controls and supervisory procedures that, among other things, is reasonably... relevant risk management controls and supervisory procedures required under the Rule. DATES: The effective...

  10. Measuring Risk Structure Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zdeněk Konečný

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at proposing of an inovative method for calculating the shares of operational and financial risks. This methodological tool will support managers while monitoring the risk structure. The method is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM for calculation of equity cost, namely on determination of the beta coefficient, which is the only variable, that is dependent on entrepreneurial risk. There are combined both alternative approaches for calculation betas, which means, that there are accounting data used and there is distinguished unlevered beta and levered beta. The novelty of the proposed method is based on including of quantities for measuring operational and financial risks in beta calculation. The volatility of cash flow, as a quantity for measuring of operational risk, is included in the unlevered beta. Return on equity based on the cash flow and the indebtedness are variables used in calculation of the levered beta. This modification makes it possible to calculate the share of operational risk as the proportion of the unlevered/levered beta and the share of financial risk, which is the remainder of levered beta. The modified method is applied on companies from two sectors of the Czech economy. In the data set there are companies from one cyclical sector and from one neutral sector to find out potential differences in the risk structure. The findings show, that in both sectors the share of operational risk is over 50%, however, in the neutral sector is this more dominant.

  11. Functional Measures for Fall Risk in the Acute Care Setting: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, Alaina M; Siu, Ka-Chun; Honaker, Julie A

    2017-04-01

    This review explores the evidence pertaining to the use of functional ability measures for fall risk in the acute care setting. We included studies from six bibliographic databases that investigated fall risk functional ability measures in hospitalized older adults (≥55 years). We utilized the following search terms: acute care, subacute care, critical care, inpatient, fall, and fall prevention. Nineteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Timed "Up and Go" (TUG) was identified as a feasible fall risk functional ability measure for clinicians; it demonstrated clinical performance of fair sensitivity (56%-68%) and good specificity (74%-80%). Clinical performance of other measures (Berg Balance Scale and Functional Reach test) was not as favorable as the TUG. Functional ability measures are underutilized in the acute care setting, potentially due to limited knowledge and training on administration. Combining functional measures with subjective screening tools may optimize performance and accuracy of identifying fall risk identification.

  12. Perceived Barriers to Adherence to Tuberculosis Infection Control Measures among Health Care Workers in the Dominican Republic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Helena J; Veras-Estévez, Bienvenido A; Pomeranz, Jamie L; Pérez-Then, Eddy N; Marcelino, Belkys; Lauzardo, Michael

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Health care workers have an increased risk of infection due to occupational Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure, including multidrug-resistant strains. Health care workers' risk of developing tuberculosis is greater than that of the general population, whether in low-, intermediate- or high-incidence countries. Adherence to infection control measures (administrative controls, environmental controls, and personal respiratory protection) is essential to reduce risk of disease transmission between suspected tuberculosis patients and health care workers, but for different reasons, both objective and subjective, adherence is low. Identifying the causes of low adherence is a prerequisite to effective programming to reduce risk. OBJECTIVE Identify perceived barriers to adherence to tuberculosis infection control measures among health care workers in the Dominican Republic. METHODS During August 2014, a qualitative study was conducted in two tertiary-level hospitals in different regions of the Dominican Republic. A semi-structured interview guide of nine questions was developed, based on the scientific literature and with consensus of clinical experts. Nine semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of seven physicians (five men, two women) and two baccalaureate nurses (both women) working in the emergency medicine, internal medicine or nursing departments of those institutions. Question topics included clinical experience of M. tuberculosis infection and disease; knowledge of disease transmission and preventive practices; clinical management strategies; and perceptions of effectiveness of directly observed treatment, short-course, and disease coping strategies. RESULTS Perceived barriers were described as: 1) sense of invincibility of health care workers; 2) personal beliefs of health care workers related to direct patient communication; 3) low provider-to-patient ratios in hospitals; 4) absence of tuberculosis isolation units for

  13. Measurement control for plutonium isotopic measurements using gamma-ray spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleissner, J.G.

    1985-01-01

    A measurement control (MC) program should be an integral part of every nondestructive assay measurement system used for the assay of special nuclear materials. This report describes an MC program for plutonium isotopic composition measurements using high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy. This MC program emphasizes the standardization of data collection procedures along with the implementation of internal and external measurement control checks to provide the requisite measurement quality assurance. This report also describes the implementation of the MC program in the isotopic analysis code GRPAUT. Recommendations are given concerning the importance and frequency of the various MC checks in order to ensure a successful implementation of the MC procedures for the user's application

  14. Chaotic dynamic behavior analysis and control for a financial risk system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiao-Dan; Zheng Yuan; Liu Xiang-Dong; Liu Cheng

    2013-01-01

    According to the risk management process of financial markets, a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper. Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties, we obtain the conditions for stability and bifurcation of the system based on Hopf bifurcation theory of nonlinear dynamic systems. In order to make the system's chaos disappear, we select the feedback gain matrix to design a class of chaotic controller. Numerical simulations are performed to reveal the change process of financial market risk. It is shown that, when the parameter of risk transmission rate changes, the system gradually comes into chaos from the asymptotically stable state through bifurcation. The controller can then control the chaos effectively

  15. 75 FR 4007 - Risk Management Controls for Brokers or Dealers With Market Access

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-26

    ... 3235-AK53 Risk Management Controls for Brokers or Dealers With Market Access AGENCY: Securities and... or other persons, to implement risk management controls and supervisory procedures reasonably... access may not utilize any pre-trade risk management controls (i.e., ``unfiltered'' or ``naked'' access...

  16. Non interacting control by measurement feedback

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woude, van der J.W.

    1987-01-01

    In this paper we shall solve the problem of non interacting control by measurement feedback for systems that in addition to a control input and a measurement output have two exogenous inputs and two exogenous outputs. That is, we shall derive necessary and sufficient conditions that can actually be

  17. Avian influenza transmission risks: analysis of biosecurity measures and contact structure in Dutch poultry farming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ssematimba, A; Hagenaars, T J; de Wit, J J; Ruiterkamp, F; Fabri, T H; Stegeman, J A; de Jong, M C M

    2013-04-01

    In the 2003 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry, between-farm virus transmission continued for considerable time despite control measures. Gaining more insight into the mechanisms of this spread is necessary for the possible development of better control strategies. We carried out an in-depth interview study aiming to systematically explore all the poultry production activities to identify the activities that could potentially be related to virus introduction and transmission. One of the between-farm contact risks that were identified is the movement of birds between farms during thinning with violations of on-farm biosecurity protocols. In addition, several other risky management practices, risky visitor behaviours and biosecurity breaches were identified. They include human and fomite contacts that occurred without observing biosecurity protocols, poor waste management practices, presence of other animal species on poultry farms, and poor biosecurity against risks from farm neighbourhood activities. Among the detailed practices identified, taking cell phones and jewellery into poultry houses, not observing shower-in protocols and the exchange of unclean farm equipment were common. Also, sometimes certain protocols or biosecurity facilities were lacking. We also asked the interviewed farmers about their perception of transmission risks and found that they had divergent opinions about the visitor- and neighbourhood-associated risks. We performed a qualitative assessment of contact risks (as transmission pathways) based on contact type, corresponding biosecurity practices, and contact frequency. This assessment suggests that the most risky contact types are bird movements during thinning and restocking, most human movements accessing poultry houses and proximity to other poultry farms. The overall risk posed by persons and equipment accessing storage rooms and the premises-only contacts was considered to be medium. Most of the exposure

  18. Fundamental data analyses for measurement control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, K.; Barlich, G.L.; Fazal, B.; Strittmatter, R.B.

    1987-02-01

    A set of measurment control data analyses was selected for use by analysts responsible for maintaining measurement quality of nuclear materials accounting instrumentation. The analyses consist of control charts for bias and precision and statistical tests used as analytic supplements to the control charts. They provide the desired detection sensitivity and yet can be interpreted locally, quickly, and easily. The control charts provide for visual inspection of data and enable an alert reviewer to spot problems possibly before statistical tests detect them. The statistical tests are useful for automating the detection of departures from the controlled state or from the underlying assumptions (such as normality). 8 refs., 3 figs., 5 tabs

  19. Risk evaluation and control strategies for indoor radon: a brief discussion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nero, A.V. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Average risks of death estimated for radon are larger than those for many exposures in the outdoor environment, but similar to some in industrial settings. However, the indoor environment differs in regard to cost, benefit, responsibility, and distribution of risks from the outdoor and occupational settings, where frameworks for setting risk-limiting objectives and strategies have already been developed substantially. This indicates the need to develop a conceptual framework for evaluating risks in the indoor environment, within which the objectives of radon control strategies can be sensibly chosen. Nevertheless, the range of estimated radon risks and of recent radon control strategies suggest near-term elements of any strategy, i.e. accurate and effective public information, as well as reliable monitoring and control capabilities, and a focus on areas where most high residential levels occur. Developing a conceptual framework for evaluating indoor risks will permit the formulation of suitable aims on average indoor exposures and lower exposure situations. (author)

  20. Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

    2018-01-01

    In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

  1. No association between static and dynamic postural control and ACL injury risk among female elite handball and football players: a prospective study of 838 players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffen, Kathrin; Nilstad, Agnethe; Krosshaug, Tron; Pasanen, Kati; Killingmo, Aleksander; Bahr, Roald

    2017-02-01

    Research on balance measures as potential risk factors for ACL injury is limited. To assess whether postural control was associated with an increased risk for ACL injuries in female elite handball and football players. Premier league players were tested in the preseason and followed prospectively for ACL injury risk from 2007 through 2015. At baseline, we recorded player demographics, playing experience, ACL and ankle injury history. We measured centre of pressure velocity in single-leg stabilisation tests and reach distances in the Star Excursion Balance Test. To examine the stability of postural control measures over time, we examined their short-term and long-term reproducibility. We generated logistic regression models, 1 for each of the proposed risk factors. A total of 55 (6.6%) out of 838 players (age 21±4 years; height 170±6 cm; body mass 66±8 kg) sustained a non-contact ACL injury after baseline testing (1.8±1.8 years). When comparing normalised balance measures between injured and uninjured players in univariate analyses, none of the variables were statistically associated with ACL injury risk. Short-term and long-term reproducibility of the selected variables was poor. Players with a previous ACL injury had a 3-fold higher risk of sustaining a new ACL injury compared with previously uninjured players (OR 2.9, CI 1.4 to 5.7). None of postural control measures examined were associated with increased ACL injury risk among female elite handball and football players. Hence, as measured in the current investigation, the variables included cannot be used to predict ACL injury risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  2. Microneedle Manufacture: Assessing Hazards and Control Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Martin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Transdermal microneedles have captured the attention of researchers in relation to a variety of applications, and silicone-based moulds required to produce these systems are now widely available and can be readily manufactured on the lab bench. There is however some concern over the potential for accidental needlestick injuries and, as with any sharp hazard, the potential for blood-borne pathogen transmission must be considered. This follows from recent governmental concerns over the use of microneedle systems in dermabrasion. Despite the piercing nature of the microneedle patch sharing many similarities with conventional hypodermic needles, there are notable factors that mitigate the risk of contamination. A range of microneedle systems has been prepared using micromoulding techniques, and their puncture capability assessed. A critical assessment of the potential for accidental puncture and the control measures needed to ensure safe utilisation of the patch systems is presented.

  3. House dust mite control measures for asthma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtzsche, Peter C.; Johansen, Helle Krogh

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The major allergen in house dust comes from mites. Chemical, physical and combined methods of reducing mite allergen levels are intended to reduce asthma symptoms in people who are sensitive to house dust mites. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of reducing exposure to house dust mite...... antigens in the homes of people with mite-sensitive asthma. SEARCH STRATEGY: PubMed and The Cochrane Library (last searches Nov 2007), reference lists. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised trials of mite control measures vs placebo or no treatment in people with asthma known to be sensitive to house dust mites......), the standardised mean difference was 0.00 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.10 to 0.10). There were no statistically significant differences either in number of patients improved (relative risk 1.01, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.27), asthma symptom scores (standardised mean difference -0.04, 95% CI -0.15 to 0...

  4. Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina V. Tulupova

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

  5. Risk factors for unintentional poisoning in children aged 1-3 years in NSW Australia: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmertmann, Marcia; Williamson, Ann; Black, Deborah; Wilson, Leigh

    2013-05-24

    Unintentional poisoning in young children is an important public health issue. Age pattern studies have demonstrated that children aged 1-3 years have the highest levels of poisoning risk among children aged 0-4 years, yet little research has been conducted regarding risk factors specific to this three-year age group and the methodologies employed varied greatly. The purpose of the current study is to investigate a broad range of potential risk factors for unintentional poisoning in children aged 1-3 years using appropriate methodologies. Four groups of children, one case group (children who had experienced a poisoning event) and three control groups (children who had been 'injured', 'sick' or who were 'healthy'), and their mothers (mother-child dyads) were enrolled into a case-control study. All mother-child dyads participated in a 1.5-hour child developmental screening and observation, with mothers responding to a series of questionnaires at home. Data were analysed as three case-control pairs with multivariate analyses used to control for age and sex differences between child cases and controls. Five risk factors were included in the final multivariate models for one or more case-control pairs. All three models found that children whose mothers used more positive control in their interactions during a structured task had higher odds of poisoning. Two models showed that maternal psychiatric distress increased poisoning risk (poisoning-injury and poisoning-healthy). Individual models identified the following variables as risk factors: less proximal maternal supervision during risk taking activities (poisoning-injury), medicinal substances stored in more accessible locations in bathrooms (poisoning-sick) and lower total parenting stress (poisoning-healthy). The findings of this study indicate that the nature of the caregiver-child relationship and caregiver attributes play an important role in influencing poisoning risk. Further research is warranted to explore the

  6. Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Liebig

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

  7. Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

    2017-07-20

    For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

    2012-01-01

    Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose–response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials’ physical–chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

  9. Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

    2012-09-01

    Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose-response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials' physical-chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

  10. Effect of internal controls on credit risk among listed Spanish banks

    OpenAIRE

    Akwaa-Sekyi, Ellis Kofi; Moreno Gené, Jordi

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The paper examines the effectiveness of internal control systems, explores the exposure of Spanish banks to the dangers of default as a result of internal control systems and establishes a relationship between internal controls and credit risk. Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative research approach is used to test hypotheses on the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in Spain. Data from Bankscope and company websites from 2004-2013 were used...

  11. Poor sleep quality has an adverse effect on childhood asthma control and lung function measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheen, Youn Ho; Choi, Sun Hee; Jang, Sun Jung; Baek, Ji Hyeon; Jee, Hye Mi; Kim, Mi Ae; Chae, Kyu Young; Han, Man Yong

    2017-08-01

    It is unclear as to whether sleep respiratory breathing disorder (SRBD) is a risk factor for uncontrolled asthma in children. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate whether SRBD may have an adverse effect on childhood asthma control and lung function measures. This was a cross-sectional study of 220 children with well-controlled (n = 108), partly controlled (n = 92), and uncontrolled asthma (n = 20) according to the Global Initiative for Asthma guideline. SRBD was assessed using the Pediatric Sleep Questionnaire (PSQ). The association of SRBD with partly controlled/uncontrolled asthma was investigated on multivariate logistic regression analysis. Of 220 children with asthma, 43 (19.6%) had SRBD: well-controlled, 16.7% (18/108); partly controlled, 21.7% (20/92); and uncontrolled, 25.0% (5/20; P = 0.54). There was a significant difference in forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity (FEV 1 /FVC; P = 0.007) and childhood asthma control test (C-ACT) score (P asthma control status, but not in PSQ score (P = 0.18). Children with obstructive sleep apnea (PSQ >0.33) had a lower C-ACT score compared with controls (PSQ ≤0.33; 19.6 ± 5.1 vs 22.0 ± 4.2, P = 0.002). PSQ score was negatively correlated with FEV 1 /FVC (r = -0.16, P = 0.02). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, high PSQ score increased the odds of having partly controlled/uncontrolled asthma by 9.12 (95% CI: 1.04-79.72, P = 0.046) after adjusting for confounding factors. SRBD is an independent risk factor for partly controlled/uncontrolled asthma and has an adverse effect on lung function measures in children. Further research is warranted to determine whether the improvement of sleep quality may also enhance level of asthma control and lung function in children. © 2017 Japan Pediatric Society.

  12. Risk factors for chronic periodontitis in Sri Lankan adults: a population based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellapuli, Nimali; Ekanayake, Lilani

    2017-09-07

    To determine risk factors for chronic periodontitis in 30-60 year olds in Sri Lanka. Cases and controls for this population based unmatched case-control study were identified from a broader cross-sectional study which was conducted to determine the prevalence of chronic periodontitis in 30-60 year old adults in Colombo district Sri Lanka. The study included 694 cases and 706 controls. Data were collected by means of a pre-tested interviewer administered questionnaire to obtain information about socio-demographic and behavioural factors, a physical examination to record anthropometric measurements and an oral examination. Being a male, a Muslim, belonging to the 45-60 year old age group, having less than 12 years of education, using the finger to clean teeth, current smoking, current betel quid chewing, self-reported diabetes and hypertension emerged as risk factors for chronic periodontitis. Several socio-demographic and behavioural factors as well as co-morbid conditions emerged as independent risk factors for chronic periodontits in this population. The findings could be used for planning programmes to reduce the burden of chronic periodontits in Colombo district Sri Lanka.

  13. Vehicle rollover risk and electronic stability control systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLennan, P A; Marshall, T; Griffin, R; Purcell, M; McGwin, G; Rue, L W

    2008-06-01

    Electronic stability control (ESC) systems were developed to reduce motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) caused by loss of control. Introduced in Europe in 1995 and in the USA in 1996, ESC is designed to improve vehicle lateral stability by electronically detecting and automatically assisting drivers in unfavorable situations. To examine the relationship between vehicle rollover risk and presence of ESC using a large national database of MVCs. A retrospective cohort study for the period 1995 through 2006 was carried out using data obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System. All passenger cars and sport utility vehicles (SUVs)/vans of model year 1996 and later were eligible. Vehicle ESC (unavailable, optional, standard) was determined on the basis of make, model, and model year. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs were calculated to compare rollover risk by vehicle ESC group. For all crashes, vehicles equipped with standard ESC had decreased risk of rollover (RR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.77) compared with vehicles with ESC unavailable. The association was consistent for single-vehicle MVCs (RR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.82); passenger cars had decreased rollover risk (RR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.12), but SUVs/vans had a more dramatically decreased risk (RR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.61). This study supports previous results showing ESC to be effective in reducing the risk of rollover. ESC is more effective in SUVs/vans for rollovers related to single-vehicle MVCs.

  14. Controlling You Watching Me: Measuring Perception Control on Social Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keep, Melanie; Attrill-Smith, Alison

    2017-09-01

    Online self-presentation assumes that individuals intentionally control how others perceive them based on their online behaviors. Existing tools are limited in their ability to measure this notion of perception control and there is little understanding around factors which may affect the desire for perception control. This article reports on the development of a perception control scale and comparisons of perception control across age and between genders. A total of 222 participants completed an online survey with items measuring perception control and participant demographics. A principal component analysis revealed a one-factor, 12-item scale explaining 41.14% of the variance. Perception control was found to increase with age and did not differ between genders. Results are consistent with existing impression management research suggesting that while participants of both genders desire to control how others perceive them, as a person's sense of self stabilizes over time, they are less motivated to change their behaviors to control others' impressions of them.

  15. Simplifying the audit of risk factor recording and control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Min; Cooney, Marie Therese; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To simplify the assessment of the recording and control of coronary heart disease risk factors in different countries and regions. DESIGN: The SUrvey of Risk Factors (SURF) is an international clinical audit. METHODS: Data on consecutive patients with established coronary heart disease...

  16. The application of hazard analysis and critical control points and risk management in the preparation of anti-cancer drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Brigitte; Martelli, Nicolas; Berhoune, Malik; Maestroni, Marie-Laure; Havard, Laurent; Prognon, Patrice

    2009-02-01

    To apply the Hazard analysis and Critical Control Points method to the preparation of anti-cancer drugs. To identify critical control points in our cancer chemotherapy process and to propose control measures and corrective actions to manage these processes. The Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points application began in January 2004 in our centralized chemotherapy compounding unit. From October 2004 to August 2005, monitoring of the process nonconformities was performed to assess the method. According to the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points method, a multidisciplinary team was formed to describe and assess the cancer chemotherapy process. This team listed all of the critical points and calculated their risk indexes according to their frequency of occurrence, their severity and their detectability. The team defined monitoring, control measures and corrective actions for each identified risk. Finally, over a 10-month period, pharmacists reported each non-conformity of the process in a follow-up document. Our team described 11 steps in the cancer chemotherapy process. The team identified 39 critical control points, including 11 of higher importance with a high-risk index. Over 10 months, 16,647 preparations were performed; 1225 nonconformities were reported during this same period. The Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points method is relevant when it is used to target a specific process such as the preparation of anti-cancer drugs. This method helped us to focus on the production steps, which can have a critical influence on product quality, and led us to improve our process.

  17. Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Feilin; Zhong, Ping-An; Sun, Yimeng; Yeh, William W.-G.

    2017-12-01

    Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability.

  18. A holistic approach to control process safety risks: Possible ways forward

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasman, H.J.; Knegtering, B.; Rogers, W.J.

    2013-01-01

    system, the process industry is monitoring safety performance indicators. The critical intensity level upon which management must be alarmed is less simple. Risk assessment may be improved, made dynamic, and be a tool of process control by taking account of short-term risk fluctuations based on sensor signals and the influence of human factors with its long-term changes via indicators. Bayesian network can provide the infrastructure. The paper will describe various complexities when applying a holistic control of safety to a process plant in general, and it will more specifically focus on safeguarding measures such as barriers and other controls with some examples. -- Highlights: • Complexity of process installations makes risk control of a process challenging. • Erosive drift by cost pressure and efficiency increase may undermine safety level. • Resilience engineering in socio-psychological context analyzed this successfully. • There is prospect too to develop the technical side of process safety resilience. • Process safety performance indicator information may help to establish risk level

  19. Validation of parental reports of asthma trajectory, burden, and risk by using the pediatric asthma control and communication instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okelo, Sande O; Eakin, Michelle N; Riekert, Kristin A; Teodoro, Alvin P; Bilderback, Andrew L; Thompson, Darcy A; Loiaza-Martinez, Antonio; Rand, Cynthia S; Thyne, Shannon; Diette, Gregory B; Patino, Cecilia M

    2014-01-01

    Despite a growing interest, few pediatric asthma questionnaires assess multiple dimensions of asthma morbidity, as recommended by national asthma guidelines, or use patient-reported outcomes. To evaluate a questionnaire that measures multiple dimensions of parent-reported asthma morbidity (Direction, Bother, and Risk). We administered the Pediatric Asthma Control and Communication Instrument (PACCI) and assessed asthma control (PACCI Control), quality of life, and lung function among children who presented for routine asthma care. The PACCI was evaluated for discriminative validity. A total of 317 children participated (mean age, 8.2 years; 58% boys; 44% African American). As parent-reported PACCI Direction changed from "better" to "worse," we observed poorer asthma control (P < .001), mean Pediatric Asthma Caregiver Quality of Life Questionnaire (PACQLQ) scores (P < .001), and FEV1% (P = .025). Linear regression showed that, for each change in PACCI Direction, the mean PACQLQ score decreased by -0.6 (95% CI, -0.8 to -0.4). As parent-reported PACCI Bother changed from "not bothered" to "very bothered," we observed poorer asthma control (P < .001) and lower mean PACQLQ scores (P < .001). Linear regression showed that, for each change in PACCI Bother category, the mean PACQLQ score decreased by -1.1 (95% CI, -1.3 to -0.9). Any reported PACCI Risk event (emergency department visit, hospitalization, or use of an oral corticosteroid) was associated with poorer asthma control (P < .05) and PACQLQ scores (P < .01). PACCI Direction, Bother, and Risk are valid measures of parent-reported outcomes and show good discriminative validity. The PACCI is a simple clinical tool to assess multiple dimensions of parent-reported asthma morbidity, in addition to risk and control. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Establishing a volumetric measurement control program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holt, S.H.; Jenkins, E.W.

    1993-01-01

    At the Savannah River Site (SRS), several facilities have nearly all their special nuclear material in solution and therefore, volume measurements play a key role in the accountability of these materials. Normally, facilities rely on frequent instrument calibrations, periodic tank calibrations and proper instrument configuration to ensure measurement control. At SRS, methods have been employed that go beyond these basic steps to monitor the volume measurement systems and provide real time indication of measurement control. These methods can be used to indicate if a tank requires recalibration, if there is a sampling problem, or if there is an instrument problem. The methods include: sample density comparison, in-tank to laboratory density comparison, redundant instrument comparison and tank to tank transfer comparison. This paper describes these methods and the generation of control charts to track these comparisons in real time

  1. Application of a pilot control banding tool for risk level assessment and control of nanoparticle exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paik, Samuel Y; Zalk, David M; Swuste, Paul

    2008-08-01

    Control banding (CB) strategies offer simplified solutions for controlling worker exposures to constituents that are found in the workplace in the absence of firm toxicological and exposure data. These strategies may be particularly useful in nanotechnology applications, considering the overwhelming level of uncertainty over what nanomaterials and nanotechnologies present as potential work-related health risks, what about these materials might lead to adverse toxicological activity, how risk related to these might be assessed and how to manage these issues in the absence of this information. This study introduces a pilot CB tool or 'CB Nanotool' that was developed specifically for characterizing the health aspects of working with engineered nanoparticles and determining the level of risk and associated controls for five ongoing nanotechnology-related operations being conducted at two Department of Energy research laboratories. Based on the application of the CB Nanotool, four of the five operations evaluated in this study were found to have implemented controls consistent with what was recommended by the CB Nanotool, with one operation even exceeding the required controls for that activity. The one remaining operation was determined to require an upgrade in controls. By developing this dynamic CB Nanotool within the realm of the scientific information available, this application of CB appears to be a useful approach for assessing the risk of nanomaterial operations, providing recommendations for appropriate engineering controls and facilitating the allocation of resources to the activities that most need them.

  2. Case control study of the geographic variability of exposure to disinfectant byproducts and risk for rectal cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogerson Peter A

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Levels of byproducts that result from the disinfection of drinking water vary within a water distribution system. This prompted us to question whether the risk for rectal cancer also varies, depending upon one's long term geographic location within the system. Such a geographic distribution in rectal cancer risk would follow naturally from an association between level of byproduct and rectal cancer risk. We assess the effects of estimated geographic variability in exposure to some of the components of the trihalomethane group of disinfectant byproducts (DBPs on the odds ratios and probabilities for rectal cancer in white males in a case control study of 128 cases and 253 controls, conducted in Monroe County, Western New York State, U.S.A. The study was designed around health data initially collected at the University at Buffalo (Department of Social and Preventative Medicine as part of the Upstate New York Diet Study, and trihalomethane (THM data collected from a separate independent study of THMs conducted by Monroe County Department of Health. Case participants were chosen from hospital pathology records. The controls are disease-free white males between 35–90 years old, living in Monroe County, and chosen from control groups for studies from cancer of five other (unrelated sites. Using a combination of case control methodology and spatial analysis, the spatial patterns of THMs and individual measures of tap water consumption provide estimates of the effects of ingestion of specific amounts of some DBPs on rectal cancer risk. Trihalomethane (THM data were used to spatially interpolate levels at the taps of cases and controls, and odds ratios were estimated using logistic regression to assess the effects of estimated THM exposure dose on cancer risk, adjusting for alcohol, dietary beta carotene intake, tap water intake, and total caloric intake. Results Trihalomethane levels varied spatially within the county; although

  3. Customers and Markets: Both are Essential to Credit-Risk Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares credit models that incorporate a market component to those that are solely customerbased. We found that customer-only models understated credit risk during the Global Financial Crisis (GFCand do not adequately differentiate between industries. Models that focus too heavily on the market canoverstate credit risk in times of high volatility. We recommend a two-factor modelling approach thatincorporates both customer and market risk to improve the accuracy of credit-risk measurement as well asassist lenders with early risk detection.

  4. Learning from high risk industries may not be straightforward: a qualitative study of the hierarchy of risk controls approach in healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberati, Elisa G; Peerally, Mohammad Farhad; Dixon-Woods, Mary

    2018-02-01

    Though healthcare is often exhorted to learn from 'high-reliability' industries, adopting tools and techniques from those sectors may not be straightforward. We sought to examine the hierarchies of risk controls approach, used in high-risk industries to rank interventions according to supposed effectiveness in reducing risk, and widely advocated as appropriate for healthcare. Classification of risk controls proposed by clinical teams following proactive detection of hazards in their clinical systems. Classification was based on a widely used hierarchy of controls developed by the US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). A range of clinical settings in four English NHS hospitals. The four clinical teams in our study planned a total of 42 risk controls aimed at addressing safety hazards. Most (n = 35) could be classed as administrative controls, thus qualifying among the weakest type of interventions according to the HoC approach. Six risk controls qualified as 'engineering' controls, i.e. the intermediate level of the hierarchy. Only risk control qualified as 'substitution', classified as the strongest type of intervention by the HoC. Many risk controls introduced by clinical teams may cluster towards the apparently weaker end of an established hierarchy of controls. Less clear is whether the HoC approach as currently formulated is useful for the specifics of healthcare. Valuable opportunities for safety improvement may be lost if inappropriate hierarchical models are used to guide the selection of patient safety improvement interventions. Though learning from other industries may be useful, caution is needed. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care.

  5. The Trade-Off Between Risk and Control in Corporate Ownership

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manjon, M.C.

    2003-01-01

    This paper analyses the risk control trade o$ in corporate ownership. It presents a simple model in which large shareholders decide their share depending on their risk aversion, risk-neutral effects attached to rm size and the e$ectiveness of di$erent (external and internal) mechanisms for

  6. Risk control of surgical site infection after cardiothoracic surgery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Segers, P.; de Jong, A. P.; Kloek, J. J.; Spanjaard, L.; de Mol, B. A. J. M.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this prospective study was to investigate whether a risk control programme based on risk assessment, new treatment modalities and the presence of a surveillance programme reduces the incidence of surgical site infections (SSI). Between January 2001 and December 2003, 167 patients were

  7. The effects of zooprophylaxis and other mosquito control measures against malaria in Nouna, Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sié Ali

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the absence of large scale, organized vector control programmes, individual protective measures against mosquitoes are essential for reducing the transmission of diseases like malaria. Knowledge of the types and effectiveness of mosquito control methods used by households can aid in the development and promotion of preventive measures. Methods A matched, population-based case control study was carried out in the semi-urban region of Nouna, Burkina Faso. Surveys and mosquito captures were conducted for each participating household. Data were analysed using conditional logistic regression and Pearson's product-moment correlations. Results In Nouna, Burkina Faso, the main types of reported mosquito control measures used included sleeping under bed nets (insecticide-treated and untreated and burning mosquito coils. Most of the study households kept animals within the compound or house at night. Insecticide house sprays, donkeys, rabbits and pigs were significantly associated with a reduced risk of malaria only in univariate analyses. Conclusion Given the conflicting results of the effects of zooprophylaxis from previous studies, other community-based preventive measures, such as bed nets, coils and insecticide house-spraying, may be of more benefit.

  8. Business Process Risk Management, Compliance and Internal Control: A Research Agenda

    OpenAIRE

    Rikhardsson, Pall; Best, Peter; Green, Peter; Rosemann, Michael

    2006-01-01

    Integration of risk management and management control is emerging as an important area in the wake of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and with ongoing development of frameworks such as the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework from the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO). Based on an inductive methodological approach using literature review and interviews with managers engaged in risk management and internal control projects, this paper identifies three main ar...

  9. Framing risk in pandemic influenza policy and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seetoh, Theresa; Liverani, Marco; Coker, Richard

    2012-01-01

    This article explores differing understandings of 'risk' in relation to pandemic influenza policy and control. After a preliminary overview of methodological and practical problems in risk analysis, ways in which risk was framed and managed in three historical cases were examined. The interdependence between scientific empiricism and political decision-making led to the mismanagement of the 1976 swine influenza scare in the USA. The 2004 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in Thailand, on the other hand, was undermined by questions of national economic interest and concerns over global health security. Finally, the recent global emergency of pandemic influenza H1N1 in 2009 demonstrated the difficulties of risk management under a context of pre-established perceptions about the characteristics and inevitability of a pandemic. Following the analysis of these cases, a conceptual framework is presented to illustrate ways in which changing relationships between risk assessment, risk perception and risk management can result in differing policy strategies.

  10. Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša Žiković

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.

  11. Role of measurement in feedback-controlled quantum engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Juyeon; Kim, Yong Woon

    2018-01-01

    In feedback controls, measurement is an essential step in designing protocols according to outcomes. For quantum mechanical systems, measurement has another effect; to supply energy to the measured system. We verify that in feedback-controlled quantum engines, measurement plays a dual role; not only as an auxiliary to perform feedback control but also as an energy supply to drive the engines. We consider a specific engine cycle exploiting feedback control followed by projective measurement and show that the maximum bound of the extractable work is set by both the efficacy of the feedback control and the energy change caused by projective measurement. We take a concrete example of an engine using an immobile spin-1/2 particle as a working substance and suggest two possible scenarios for work extraction.

  12. Urinary flavonoid excretion and risk of acute coronary syndrome in a nested case-control study123

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bredsdorff, Lea; Obel, Tina; Dethlefsen, Claus

    2013-01-01

    Background: Epidemiologic studies have suggested that a higher intake of flavonoids may be associated with lower risk of ischemic heart disease. However, the traditional estimation of flavonoid intake by using dietary assessment methods is affected by subjective measures. Objective: We examined...... whether the objective measurement of dietary flavonoids excreted in urine is associated with lower risk of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Design: A case-control study was nested in the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort study. Cases were identified in participants who had received a first-time ACS...... diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Registry after the time of enrollment into the Diet, Cancer and Health study. The excretion of 10 flavonoids, which represent 5 subclasses, was measured in spot urine samples by using liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry. Results: A total of 393 eligible cases...

  13. Lifestyle Factors and Gender-Specific Risk of Stroke in Adults with Diabetes Mellitus: A Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jian; Guan, Tianjia; Shen, Ying; Chao, Baohua; Li, Mei; Wang, Longde; Liu, Yuanli

    2018-07-01

    The lifestyle interventions are effective preventive measures for stroke in general population, and the stroke risk with lifestyle factors may be modified by gender, health conditions, etc. Therefore, we conducted a case-control study to investigate the gender-specific association between stroke risk and lifestyle factors in adults with diabetes based on the China National Stroke Screening Survey. Structured questionnaires were used to collect demographic data and information regarding lifestyle factors, history of chronic medical conditions, and family history of stroke and the status of treatment. The case group comprised individuals diagnosed with first-ever stroke in 2013-2014 screening period. Their corresponding controls (frequency-matched for age group and urban/rural ratio) were randomly selected from individuals with diabetes without stroke. There were 170 total stroke cases (500 controls) and 152 ischemic stroke cases (456 controls) among men with diabetes, and 183 total stroke cases (549 controls) and 168 ischemic stroke cases (504 controls) among women with diabetes. We found that physical inactivity was significantly associated with increased risk of total stroke (odds ratio [OR] = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-2.21) and of ischemic stroke (OR = 1.57, 95% CI 1.04-2.36) in women with diabetes. We found no significant association of smoking, overweight/obesity, or physical inactivity with risk of total or ischemic stroke in men with diabetes. Among the lifestyle factors of smoking, overweight/obesity, and physical inactivity, physical inactivity might increase the risk of total and ischemic stroke in women with diabetes. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Quantitative background parenchymal uptake on molecular breast imaging and breast cancer risk: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hruska, Carrie B; Geske, Jennifer R; Swanson, Tiffinee N; Mammel, Alyssa N; Lake, David S; Manduca, Armando; Conners, Amy Lynn; Whaley, Dana H; Scott, Christopher G; Carter, Rickey E; Rhodes, Deborah J; O'Connor, Michael K; Vachon, Celine M

    2018-06-05

    Background parenchymal uptake (BPU), which refers to the level of Tc-99m sestamibi uptake within normal fibroglandular tissue on molecular breast imaging (MBI), has been identified as a breast cancer risk factor, independent of mammographic density. Prior analyses have used subjective categories to describe BPU. We evaluate a new quantitative method for assessing BPU by testing its reproducibility, comparing quantitative results with previously established subjective BPU categories, and determining the association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer risk. Two nonradiologist operators independently performed region-of-interest analysis on MBI images viewed in conjunction with corresponding digital mammograms. Quantitative BPU was defined as a unitless ratio of the average pixel intensity (counts/pixel) within the fibroglandular tissue versus the average pixel intensity in fat. Operator agreement and the correlation of quantitative BPU measures with subjective BPU categories assessed by expert radiologists were determined. Percent density on mammograms was estimated using Cumulus. The association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer (per one unit BPU) was examined within an established case-control study of 62 incident breast cancer cases and 177 matched controls. Quantitative BPU ranged from 0.4 to 3.2 across all subjects and was on average higher in cases compared to controls (1.4 versus 1.2, p Quantitative BPU was strongly correlated with subjective BPU categories (Spearman's r = 0.59 to 0.69, p quantitative BPU measure, assessed by intraclass correlation, was 0.92 and 0.98, respectively. Quantitative BPU measures showed either no correlation or weak negative correlation with mammographic percent density. In a model adjusted for body mass index and percent density, higher quantitative BPU was associated with increased risk of breast cancer for both operators (OR = 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-10.1, and 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.7). Quantitative

  15. One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiyama, N.

    2001-12-01

    Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

  16. Roadside air quality and implications for control measures: A case study of Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ai, Z. T.; Mak, C. M.; Lee, H. C.

    2016-07-01

    Traffic related air pollution is one of major environmental issues in densely populated urban areas including Hong Kong. A series of control measures has been implemented by Hong Kong government to cut traffic related air pollutants, including retrofitting the Euro II and Euro III buses with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) devices to lower nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions. In order to reveal the real-life roadside air quality and evaluate the effectiveness of the control measures, this study first analyzed the recent six-year data regarding concentrations of pollutants typically associated with traffic recorded in two governmental roadside monitoring stations and second conducted on-site measurements of concentration of pollutants at pedestrian level near five selected roads. Given that there is a possibility of ammonia leakage as a secondary pollutant from SCR devices, a special attention was paid to the measurements of ammonia level in bus stations and along roadsides. Important influencing factors, such as traffic intensity, street configuration and season, were analyzed. Control measures implemented by the government are effective to decrease the traffic emissions. In 2014, only NO2 cannot achieve the annual air quality objective of Hong Kong. However, it is important to find that particulate matters, rather than NO2, post potentially a short-term exposure risk to passengers and pedestrians. Based on the findings of this study, specific control measures are suggested, which are intended to further improve the roadside air quality.

  17. Acceptability of the Risk Importance Measures in Evaluation of a Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss insights gained from evaluating changes to plant design and operational practices. Evaluation of a change is performed in order to provide an answer to two fundamental questions: what is the impact and is the impact acceptable? In order to determine 'the acceptability of an impact', the risk-based technologies today provide various ranking schemes. They are based on the existing IPE studies or PSA models and use of standard risk importance measures. In 'ad hoc' applications of risk importance measures, the specific nature of the analyzed change is often neglected. This paper attempts to capture the most common problems in the application of importance measures, and defines the limits of this application. The authors' position is that the use of risk importance information as the sole basis to accept or reject with ranking results, after the basis for the rank is meaningfully established. (author)

  18. Tuberculosis control in big cities and urban risk groups in the European Union: a consensus statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hest, N A; Aldridge, R W; de Vries, G; Sandgren, A; Hauer, B; Hayward, A; Arrazola de Oñate, W; Haas, W; Codecasa, L R; Caylà, J A; Story, A; Antoine, D; Gori, A; Quabeck, L; Jonsson, J; Wanlin, M; Orcau, Å; Rodes, A; Dedicoat, M; Antoun, F; van Deutekom, H; Keizer, St; Abubakar, I

    2014-03-06

    In low-incidence countries in the European Union (EU), tuberculosis (TB) is concentrated in big cities, especially among certain urban high-risk groups including immigrants from TB high-incidence countries, homeless people, and those with a history of drug and alcohol misuse. Elimination of TB in European big cities requires control measures focused on multiple layers of the urban population. The particular complexities of major EU metropolises, for example high population density and social structure, create specific opportunities for transmission, but also enable targeted TB control interventions, not efficient in the general population, to be effective or cost effective. Lessons can be learnt from across the EU and this consensus statement on TB control in big cities and urban risk groups was prepared by a working group representing various EU big cities, brought together on the initiative of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. The consensus statement describes general and specific social, educational, operational, organisational, legal and monitoring TB control interventions in EU big cities, as well as providing recommendations for big city TB control, based upon a conceptual TB transmission and control model.

  19. Statistical method for quality control in presence of measurement errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauer-Peccoud, M.R.

    1998-01-01

    In a quality inspection of a set of items where the measurements of values of a quality characteristic of the item are contaminated by random errors, one can take wrong decisions which are damageable to the quality. So of is important to control the risks in such a way that a final quality level is insured. We consider that an item is defective or not if the value G of its quality characteristic is larger or smaller than a given level g. We assume that, due to the lack of precision of the measurement instrument, the measurement M of this characteristic is expressed by ∫ (G) + ξ where f is an increasing function such that the value ∫ (g 0 ) is known and ξ is a random error with mean zero and given variance. First we study the problem of the determination of a critical measure m such that a specified quality target is reached after the classification of a lot of items where each item is accepted or rejected depending on whether its measurement is smaller or greater than m. Then we analyse the problem of testing the global quality of a lot from the measurements for a example of items taken from the lot. For these two kinds of problems and for different quality targets, we propose solutions emphasizing on the case where the function ∫ is linear and the error ξ and the variable G are Gaussian. Simulation results allow to appreciate the efficiency of the different considered control procedures and their robustness with respect to deviations from the assumptions used in the theoretical derivations. (author)

  20. Reducing risk of closed loop control of blood glucose in artificial pancreas using fractional calculus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghorbani, Mahboobeh; Bogdan, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Healthcare costs in the US are among the highest in the world. Chronic diseases such as diabetes significantly contribute to these extensive costs. Despite technological advances to improve sensing and actuation devices, we still lack a coherent theory that facilitates the design and optimization of efficient and robust medical cyber-physical systems for managing chronic diseases. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model for capturing the complex dynamics of blood glucose time series (e.g., time dependent and fractal behavior) observed in real world measurements via fractional calculus concepts. Building upon our time dependent fractal model, we propose a novel model predictive controller for an artificial pancreas that regulates insulin injection. We verify the accuracy of our controller by comparing it to conventional non-fractal models using real world measurements and show how the nonlinear optimal controller based on fractal calculus concepts is superior to non-fractal controllers in terms of average risk index and prediction accuracy.

  1. DNA methylation changes measured in pre‐diagnostic peripheral blood samples are associated with smoking and lung cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baglietto, Laura; Ponzi, Erica; Haycock, Philip; Hodge, Allison; Bianca Assumma, Manuela; Jung, Chol‐Hee; Chung, Jessica; Fasanelli, Francesca; Guida, Florence; Campanella, Gianluca; Chadeau‐Hyam, Marc; Grankvist, Kjell; Johansson, Mikael; Ala, Ugo; Provero, Paolo; Wong, Ee Ming; Joo, Jihoon; English, Dallas R.; Kazmi, Nabila; Lund, Eiliv; Faltus, Christian; Kaaks, Rudolf; Risch, Angela; Barrdahl, Myrto; Sandanger, Torkjel M.; Southey, Melissa C.; Giles, Graham G.; Johansson, Mattias; Vineis, Paolo; Polidoro, Silvia; Relton, Caroline L.

    2016-01-01

    DNA methylation changes are associated with cigarette smoking. We used the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 array to determine whether methylation in DNA from pre‐diagnostic, peripheral blood samples is associated with lung cancer risk. We used a case‐control study nested within the EPIC‐Italy cohort and a study within the MCCS cohort as discovery sets (a total of 552 case‐control pairs). We validated the top signals in 429 case‐control pairs from another 3 studies. We identified six CpGs for which hypomethylation was associated with lung cancer risk: cg05575921 in the AHRR gene (p‐valuepooled = 4 × 10−17), cg03636183 in the F2RL3 gene (p‐valuepooled = 2 × 10 − 13), cg21566642 and cg05951221 in 2q37.1 (p‐valuepooled = 7 × 10−16 and 1 × 10−11 respectively), cg06126421 in 6p21.33 (p‐valuepooled = 2 × 10−15) and cg23387569 in 12q14.1 (p‐valuepooled = 5 × 10−7). For cg05951221 and cg23387569 the strength of association was virtually identical in never and current smokers. For all these CpGs except for cg23387569, the methylation levels were different across smoking categories in controls (p‐valuesheterogeneity ≤ 1.8 x10 − 7), were lowest for current smokers and increased with time since quitting for former smokers. We observed a gain in discrimination between cases and controls measured by the area under the ROC curve of at least 8% (p‐values ≥ 0.003) in former smokers by adding methylation at the 6 CpGs into risk prediction models including smoking status and number of pack‐years. Our findings provide convincing evidence that smoking and possibly other factors lead to DNA methylation changes measurable in peripheral blood that may improve prediction of lung cancer risk. PMID:27632354

  2. Serum Taurine and Stroke Risk in Women: A Prospective, Nested Case-Control Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fen; Koenig, Karen L.; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Jonas, Saran; Afanasyeva, Yelena; Wójcik, Oktawia P.; Costa, Max; Chen, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Background Taurine (2-aminoethanesulfonic acid), a conditionally essential sulfur-containing amino acid, is mainly obtained from diet in humans. Experimental studies have shown that taurine’s main biological actions include bile salt conjugation, blood pressure regulation, anti-oxidation, and anti-inflammation. Methods We conducted a prospective case-control study nested in the New York University Women’s Health Study, a cohort study involving 14,274 women enrolled since 1985. Taurine was measured in pre-diagnostic serum samples of 241 stroke cases and 479 matched controls. Results There was no statistically significant association between serum taurine and stroke risk in the overall study population. The adjusted ORs for stroke were 1.0 (reference), 0.87 (95% CI, 0.59–1.28), and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.69–1.54) in increasing tertiles of taurine (64.3–126.6, 126.7–152.9, and 153.0–308.5 nmol/mL, respectively). A significant inverse association between serum taurine and stroke risk was observed among never smokers, with an adjusted OR of 0.66 (95% CI, 0.37–1.18) and 0.50 (95% CI, 0.26–0.94) for the second and third tertile, respectively (p for trend = 0.01), but not among past or current smokers (p for interaction taurine and stroke risk, although a protective effect was observed in never smokers, which requires further investigation. Taurine, Stroke, Epidemiology, Prospective, Case-control study, NYUWHS. PMID:26866594

  3. Control to goal of cardiometabolic risk factors among Nigerians ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-07-12

    Jul 12, 2011 ... Therapeutic goals used to define risk or poor control were values adopted by expert groups such as ... medical wards in urban healthcare centers showed that .... *Status of control was based on the mean observed value.

  4. Home-based exercise program and fall-risk reduction in older adults with multiple sclerosis: phase 1 randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosnoff, Jacob J; Finlayson, Marcia; McAuley, Edward; Morrison, Steve; Motl, Robert W

    2014-03-01

    To determine the feasibility, safety, and efficacy of a home-based exercise intervention targeting fall risk in older adults with multiple sclerosis. A randomized controlled pilot trial. A home-based exercise program. Participants were randomly allocated to either a home-based exercise intervention group (n = 13) or a waiting list control group (n = 14). The exercise group completed exercises targeting lower muscle strength and balance three times a week for 12 weeks. The control group continued normal activity. Fall risk (Physiological Profile Assessment scores), balance (Berg Balance Scale), and walking testing prior to and immediately following the 12-week intervention. Each outcome measure was placed in an analysis of covariance with group as the between-subject factor and baseline values as the covariate. Effect sizes were calculated. Twelve participants from the control group and ten from the exercise group completed the study. There were no related adverse events. Fall risk was found to decrease in the exercise group following the intervention (1.1 SD 1.0 vs. 0.6 SD 0.6) while there was an increase in fall risk in the control group (1.9 SD 1.5 vs. 2.2 SD 1.9). Effect sizes for most outcomes were large (η(2) > 0.15). Home-based exercise was found to be feasible, safe, and effective for reducing physiological fall risk in older adults with multiple sclerosis. Our findings support the implementation of a larger trial to reduce fall risk in persons with multiple sclerosis.

  5. Dopamine agonists and risk: impulse control disorders in Parkinson's; disease

    OpenAIRE

    Voon, Valerie; Gao, Jennifer; Brezing, Christina; Symmonds, Mkael; Ekanayake, Vindhya; Fernandez, Hubert; Dolan, Raymond J.; Hallett, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Impulse control disorders are common in Parkinson's; disease, occurring in 13.6% of patients. Using a pharmacological manipulation and a novel risk taking task while performing functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the relationship between dopamine agonists and risk taking in patients with Parkinson's; disease with and without impulse control disorders. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, subjects chose between two choices of equal expected value: a ‘Sure’ choice an...

  6. Project risk definition and measurement in a not-for-profit setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gapenski, L C

    1992-11-01

    The health care finance literature on capital investment decisions generally applies conventional market risk concepts without distinguishing between proprietary and not-for-profit forms of organization. Since proprietary firms have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, a project's relevant risk is its contribution to the riskiness of the equity investors' well diversified stock portfolios, or its market risk. However, not-for-profit organizations do not have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, and thus market risk concepts are not applicable. Rather, the relevant risk in a not-for-profit setting is a project's corporate risk; that is, the project's contribution to the riskiness of the organization. The difference in risk definition and measurement between proprietary and not-for-profit firms has two implications for managerial decisions: (1) in making capital investment decisions, a manager must define and measure a project's riskiness on the basis of the firm's organizational form; and (2) although diversification for the sole purpose of risk reduction is not a valid rationale for proprietary firms because stockholders can achieve the same result at less cost, risk-reducing diversification does make sense for not-for-profit firms.

  7. When tight blood pressure control is not for everyone: a new model for performance measurement in hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinman, Michael A; Goldstein, Mary K

    2010-04-01

    Many patients with hypertension have legitimate reasons to forego standard blood pressure targets yet are nonetheless included in performance measurement systems. An approach to performance measurement incorporating clinical reasoning was developed to determine which patients to include in a performance measure. A 10-member multispecialty advisory panel refined a taxonomy of situations in which the balance of benefits and harms of anti-hypertensive treatment does not clearly favor tight blood pressure control (measurement for blood pressure control. These included (1) patients who have suffered adverse effects from multiple classes of antihypertensive medications; (2) patients already taking four or more antihypertensive medications; (3) patients with terminal disease, moderate to severe dementia, or other conditions that overwhelmingly dominate the patient's clinical status; and (4) other patient factors, including comfort care orientation and poor medication adherence despite attempts to remedy adherence difficulties. Several general principles also emerged. Performance measurement should focus on patients for whom the benefits of treatment clearly outweigh the harms and should incorporate a longitudinal approach. In addition, the criteria for exempting a patient from performance measurement should be more strict in patients at higher risk of adverse health outcomes from hypertension and more lenient for patients at lower risk. Incorporating "real world" clinical principles and judgment into performance measurement systems may improve targeting of care and, by accounting for patient case mix, allow for better comparison of performance between institutions.

  8. Risk assessment and HbA1c measurement in Norwegian community pharmacies to identify people with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes – A feasibility study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjome, Reidun Lisbet Skeide; Sandberg, Sverre; Sølvik, Una Ørvim

    2018-01-01

    Objectives Determine the feasibility of using a diabetes risk assessment tool followed by HbA1c-measurement in a community-pharmacy setting in Norway. Methods In this longitudinal study two pharmacists in each of three community pharmacies were trained to perform risk assessments, HbA1c-measurements and counselling. Pharmacy customers who were > 18 years old and could understand and speak Norwegian or English were recruited in the pharmacies during a two-months-period. Information about the service was presented in local newspapers, social media, leaflets and posters at the pharmacy. Customers wishing to participate contacted the pharmacy staff. Participants completed a validated diabetes risk test and a background questionnaire including a validated instrument for self-rated health. A HbA1c measurement was performed for individuals with a moderate to high risk of developing diabetes. If HbA1c ≥ 6.5% they were recommended to visit their general practitioner for follow-up. The pharmacies performed internal and external quality control of the HbA1c instrument. Results Of the 211 included participants 97 (46%) were > 50 years old. HbA1c was measured for the 47 participants (22%) with high risk. Thirty-two (15%) had HbA1c values internal and external quality control for HbA1c were within set limits. Conclusion The pharmacists were able to perform the risk assessment and measurement of HbA1c, and pharmacy customers were willing to participate. The HbA1c measurements fulfilled the requirements for analytical quality. Thus, it is feasible to implement this service in community pharmacies in Norway. In a large-scale study the inclusion criteria should be increased to 45 years in accordance with the population the risk test has been validated for. PMID:29474501

  9. Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

    2011-11-01

    Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk and risk acceptance by society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statt, C.

    1977-01-01

    Various dimensions of risk are identified which relate to the manner in which risk is perceived and evaluated, and several self-consistent risk characteristics are explored. Factors which are thought to influence the perception of risk include the degree of personal control over the risk, the potential of episodic events, and the probable severity of injury if a risk event occurs. Risk-benefit analysis can be applied to three problems: the allocation of resources for safety expenditures, the setting of standards, and societal risk taking decisions. Calculations of benefit are needed for the third area of application, methods for the other two frequently do not require such a measure. (orig./RW) [de

  11. Performance expectations of measurement control programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammond, G.A.

    1985-01-01

    The principal index for designing and assessing the effectiveness of safeguards is the sensitivity and reliability of gauging the true status of material balances involving material flows, transfers, inventories, and process holdup. The measurement system must not only be capable of characterizing the material for gradation or intensity of protection, but also be responsive to needs for detection and localization of losses, provide confirmation that no diversion has occurred, and help meet requirements for process control, health and safety. Consequently, the judicious application of a measurement control and quality assurance program is vital to a complete understanding of the capabilities and limitations of the measurement system including systematic and random components of error for weight, volume, sampling, chemical, isotopic, and nondestructive determinations of material quantities in each material balance area. This paper describes performance expectations or criteria for a measurement control program in terms of ''what'' is desired and ''why'', relative to safeguards and security objectives

  12. A Stochastic Maximum Principle for Risk-Sensitive Mean-Field Type Control

    KAUST Repository

    Djehiche, Boualem; Tembine, Hamidou; Tempone, Raul

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we study mean-field type control problems with risk-sensitive performance functionals. We establish a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) for optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of mean-field type, in which the drift and the diffusion coefficients as well as the performance functional depend not only on the state and the control but also on the mean of the distribution of the state. Our result extends the risk-sensitive SMP (without mean-field coupling) of Lim and Zhou (2005), derived for feedback (or Markov) type optimal controls, to optimal control problems for non-Markovian dynamics which may be time-inconsistent in the sense that the Bellman optimality principle does not hold. In our approach to the risk-sensitive SMP, the smoothness assumption on the value-function imposed in Lim and Zhou (2005) needs not be satisfied. For a general action space a Peng's type SMP is derived, specifying the necessary conditions for optimality. Two examples are carried out to illustrate the proposed risk-sensitive mean-field type SMP under linear stochastic dynamics with exponential quadratic cost function. Explicit solutions are given for both mean-field free and mean-field models.

  13. A Stochastic Maximum Principle for Risk-Sensitive Mean-Field Type Control

    KAUST Repository

    Djehiche, Boualem

    2015-02-24

    In this paper we study mean-field type control problems with risk-sensitive performance functionals. We establish a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) for optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of mean-field type, in which the drift and the diffusion coefficients as well as the performance functional depend not only on the state and the control but also on the mean of the distribution of the state. Our result extends the risk-sensitive SMP (without mean-field coupling) of Lim and Zhou (2005), derived for feedback (or Markov) type optimal controls, to optimal control problems for non-Markovian dynamics which may be time-inconsistent in the sense that the Bellman optimality principle does not hold. In our approach to the risk-sensitive SMP, the smoothness assumption on the value-function imposed in Lim and Zhou (2005) needs not be satisfied. For a general action space a Peng\\'s type SMP is derived, specifying the necessary conditions for optimality. Two examples are carried out to illustrate the proposed risk-sensitive mean-field type SMP under linear stochastic dynamics with exponential quadratic cost function. Explicit solutions are given for both mean-field free and mean-field models.

  14. Risk factors for measles among adults in Tianjin, China: Who should be controls in a case-control study?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Abram L; Boulton, Matthew L; Gillespie, Brenda W; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Yaxing; Carlson, Bradley F; Luo, Xiaoyan; Montgomery, JoLynn P; Wang, Xiexiu

    2017-01-01

    Control groups in previous case-control studies of vaccine-preventable diseases have included people immune to disease. This study examines risk factors for measles acquisition among adults 20 to 49 years of age in Tianjin, China, and compares findings using measles IgG antibody-negative controls to all controls, both IgG-negative and IgG-positive. Measles cases were sampled from a disease registry, and controls were enrolled from community registries in Tianjin, China, 2011-2015. Through a best subsets selection procedure, we compared which variables were selected at different model sizes when using IgG-negative controls or all controls. We entered risk factors for measles in two separate logistic regression models: one with measles IgG-negative controls and the other with all controls. The study included 384 measles cases and 1,596 community controls (194 IgG-negative). Visiting a hospital was an important risk factor. For specialty hospitals, the odds ratio (OR) was 4.53 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.28, 16.03) using IgG-negative controls, and OR = 5.27 (95% CI: 2.73, 10.18) using all controls. Variables, such as age or length of time in Tianjin, were differentially selected depending on the control group. Individuals living in Tianjin ≤3 years had 2.87 (95% CI: 1.46, 5.66) times greater odds of measles case status compared to all controls, but this relationship was not apparent for IgG-negative controls. We recommend that case-control studies examining risk factors for infectious diseases, particularly in the context of transmission dynamics, consider antibody-negative controls as the gold standard.

  15. Developing of risk-hedging CO2-emission policy. Part II: risks associated with measures to limit emissions, synthesis and conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper is Part II of a two-part series in which the risk associated with unrestrained greenhouse-gas emissions, and with measures to limit emissions, are reviewed. The following risks associated with these efforts to limit CO 2 emissions are reviewed here: (1) resources might be diverted from other urgent needs; (2) economic growth might be reduced; (3) reduction measures might cost more than expected; (4) early action might cost more than later action; (5) reduction measures might have undesired side effects; (6) reduction measures might require heavy-handed government intervention; and (7) reduction measures might not work. With gradual implementation of a diversified portfolio of measures, these risks can be greatly reduced. Based on the review of risks associated with measures to limit emissions here, and the review of the risk associated with unrestrained emissions presented in Part I, it is concluded that a reasonable near-term (20-30 year) risk hedging strategy is one which seeks to stabilize global fossil CO 2 emissions at the present (early 1990s) level. This is turn implies an emission reduction of 26% for industrialized countries as a whole and 40-50% for Canada and the USA if developing country emissions are to increase by no more than 60%, which in itself would require major assistance from the industrialized countries. The framework and conclusions presented here are critically compared with so-called optimization frameworks. 82 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  16. Risk of malignant neoplasms in acromegaly: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolinski, K; Stangierski, A; Dyrda, K; Nowicka, K; Pelka, M; Iqbal, A; Car, A; Lazizi, M; Bednarek, N; Czarnywojtek, A; Gurgul, E; Ruchala, M

    2017-03-01

    Acromegaly is a chronic disease resulting from pathological oversecretion of growth hormone and subsequently insulin growth factor-1. Several complications of the disease have been reported, including cardiovascular diseases, respiratory disorders but also increased risk of benign and malignant neoplasms. The aim of the study was to evaluate the risk of malignant neoplasms in the patients with acromegaly in comparison with the control group. Medical documentation of acromegalic patients treated in one medical center between 2005 and 2016 has been analyzed. Results were compared with sex- and age-matched group of subjects with prolactinomas and hormonally inactive pituitary lesions hospitalized in the same department. Two hundred patients with acromegaly were included. Control group was composed of 145 patients. Any malignant neoplasm in anamnesis was present in 27 (13.5 %) patients with acromegaly and six (4.1 %) subjects from control group (p = 0.003). Thyroid cancer was present in 14 (7.0 %) patients with acromegaly and two (1.4 %) in control group (p = 0.02). Breast cancer was present in seven women (5.4 % of women) in acromegaly group but none of subjects in control group (p = 0.02). Colon cancer-4 (2.0 %) patients in acromegaly group and 0 in control group (p = 0.14). Malignant neoplasms are significantly more common in patients with acromegaly. Particularly, risk of thyroid cancer was increased over fivefold. Systematic screening for neoplastic diseases should be important part of follow-up in these patients. Further case-control studies are strongly indicated to evaluate which neoplasms are more common in acromegalic patients and what is the exact risk of malignancy.

  17. Aircrew radiation exposure: sources-risks-measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duftschmid, K.E.

    1994-05-01

    A short review is given on the actual aircrew exposure and its sources. The resulting risks for harmful effects to the health and discuss methods for in-flight measurements of exposure is evaluated. An idea for a fairly simple and economic approach to a practical, airborne active dosimeter for the assessment of individual crew exposure is presented. The exposure of civil aircrew to cosmic radiation, should not be considered a tremendous risk to the health, there is no reason for panic. However, being significantly higher than the average exposure to radiation workers, it can certainly not be neglected. As recommended by ICRP, aircrew exposure has to be considered occupational radiation exposure and aircrews are certainly entitled to the same degree of protection, as other ground-based radiation workers have obtained by law, since long time. (author)

  18. Research on Occupational Safety, Health Management and Risk Control Technology in Coal Mines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Lu-Jie; Cao, Qing-Gui; Yu, Kai; Wang, Lin-Lin; Wang, Hai-Bin

    2018-04-26

    This paper studies the occupational safety and health management methods as well as risk control technology associated with the coal mining industry, including daily management of occupational safety and health, identification and assessment of risks, early warning and dynamic monitoring of risks, etc.; also, a B/S mode software (Geting Coal Mine, Jining, Shandong, China), i.e., Coal Mine Occupational Safety and Health Management and Risk Control System, is developed to attain the aforementioned objectives, namely promoting the coal mine occupational safety and health management based on early warning and dynamic monitoring of risks. Furthermore, the practical effectiveness and the associated pattern for applying this software package to coal mining is analyzed. The study indicates that the presently developed coal mine occupational safety and health management and risk control technology and the associated software can support the occupational safety and health management efforts in coal mines in a standardized and effective manner. It can also control the accident risks scientifically and effectively; its effective implementation can further improve the coal mine occupational safety and health management mechanism, and further enhance the risk management approaches. Besides, its implementation indicates that the occupational safety and health management and risk control technology has been established based on a benign cycle involving dynamic feedback and scientific development, which can provide a reliable assurance to the safe operation of coal mines.

  19. Risk aversion and compliance in markets for pollution control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stranlund, John K

    2008-07-01

    This paper examines the effects of risk aversion on compliance choices in markets for pollution control. A firm's decision to be compliant or not is independent of its manager's risk preference. However, non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers will have lower violations than otherwise identical firms with risk-neutral managers. The violations of non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers are independent of differences in their profit functions and their initial allocations of permits if and only if their managers' utility functions exhibit constant absolute risk aversion. However, firm-level characteristics do impact violation choices when managers have coefficients of absolute risk aversion that are increasing or decreasing in profit levels. Finally, in the equilibrium of a market for emissions rights with widespread non-compliance, risk aversion is associated with higher permit prices, better environmental quality, and lower aggregate violations.

  20. Anticholinergic Exposure and Risk of Pneumonia in Persons with Alzheimer's Disease: A Nested Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampela, Pasi; Tolppanen, Anna-Maija; Tanskanen, Antti; Tiihonen, Jari; Hartikainen, Sirpa; Taipale, Heidi

    2017-01-01

    Risk of pneumonia is increased in persons with Alzheimer's disease (AD). In some studies, anticholinergic drugs (AC) have been associated with an increased pneumonia risk. We analyzed the risk of pneumonia associated with ACs in persons with AD. We performed a nested case-control study using register-based data from a Finnish nationwide MEDALZ cohort including all community-dwelling persons diagnosed with AD during 2005-2011. Cases were identified based on pneumonia diagnoses (n = 12,442) from hospital discharge and causes of death registers. Up to two controls without pneumonia were matched based on time since AD diagnoses, age, and gender for each case; AC use was measured using Anticholinergic Drug Scale. Use of AC was associated with an increased risk of pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.43). However, there was no increased pneumonia risk in persons using level 3 ACs. Incident use was associated with higher risk of pneumonia (OR 2.68, 95% CI 2.15-3.34) than prevalent use (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.40-1.57). Among persons using cholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs), risk of pneumonia was increased in persons using also ACs (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.66). ACs were associated with an increased risk of pneumonia in persons with AD, especially at the time of initiation of these drugs. AC use was associated with increased pneumonia risk also in persons using AChEIs. This risk should be carefully considered when treating AD patients.

  1. Preventable coronary heart disease events from control of cardiovascular risk factors in US adults with diabetes (projections from utilizing the UKPDS risk engine).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Nathan D; Patao, Christopher; Malik, Shaista; Iloeje, Uchenna

    2014-04-15

    Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) carries significant risks for coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined the potential US population impact of single and composite risk factor control. Among US adults with diagnosed T2DM aged≥30 years in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007 to 2012, we assessed CHD events preventable using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study CHD risk engine. We examined in all those not at goal the impact of statistical control of smoking, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, according to the predefined criteria setting risk factors at different levels of control representing (1) "All to Goal," (2) at "Nominal Control," or (3) at "Aggressive Control." Preventable CHD events represented the difference between the number of events estimated from the control of these risk factors versus current levels of the risk factors. Of 606 men (representing 6.2 million) and 603 women (6.3 million) with DM and no previous CHD, 1.3 million men and 0.7 million women would develop a CHD event within 10 years if left uncontrolled. Controlling all risk factors to goal was projected to prevent 35% and 45% of CHD events in men and women, respectively. Nominal risk factor control was projected to prevent 36% and 38% and aggressive control 51% and 61% of CHD events, respectively. In conclusion, a significant proportion of CHD events in adults with T2DM could be prevented from composite control of risk factors often not at goal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. [Self-esteem, resilience, locus of control and suicide risk in nursing students].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montes-Hidalgo, Javier; Tomás-Sábado, Joaquín

    2016-01-01

    Assuming that suicide is the result of a series of factors acting cumulatively, the aim of this paper was to study the association of self-esteem, resilience and locus of control with the risk of suicidal behavior in a sample of nursing students. Observational, cross-sectional and correlational study with 186 nursing students who answered a questionnaire that contained, in addition to demographic data, the Spanish forms of Rosenberg self-esteem scale, the brief resilient coping scale, the Plutchik scale of suicide risk and the Rotter's internal-external locus of control scale. The scores of males and females are very similar on all scales except Locus of Control, where a significantly greater tendency of females attributed to external control. 6.4% of students have scores indicating suicide risk. Suicide risk scores correlated negatively and significantly with self-esteem and resilience and positively with locus of control. The multiple linear regression analysis identified self-esteem as the main variable related to suicide risk. The results suggest that students who have low self-esteem, have difficulty in adjusting to adverse situations and tend to the external attribution of the consequences of their actions may have an increased risk of suicidal behavior. Furthermore, the identification of self-esteem as the important factor involved in suicide risk can help in designing prevention programs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  3. Provider-caregiver-child discussions about risks associated with asthma control medications: content and prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Chris; Blalock, Susan J; Rao, Jaya K; Williams, Dennis; Loughlin, Ceila E; Sleath, Betsy

    2014-08-01

    The objectives of this study were to: (1) describe the extent to which general pediatric providers discuss risks associated with asthma control medications with families, and (2) examine factors that are associated with risk discussions. This study was a cross-sectional secondary analysis of audio taped medical visits involving 35 pediatric providers and 248 children with asthma with their caregivers. Transcripts of the visits were coded for discussions about asthma medication risks. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the data. Providers discussed asthma control medication risks during 23% of visits. Risks were more likely to be discussed when the visit was longer and when the provider prescribed a new asthma control medication. When providers discussed asthma control medication risks, they were most likely to ask the family general questions and make general statements. Across all of the visits, caregivers asked a total of 16 questions and made a total of 20 statements about risks associated with asthma medications; children asked a total of 3 questions and made two statements about risks associated with asthma control medications. Providers discussed risks associated with asthma control medications in less than one-quarter of medical visits. Providers should involve families in discussions about risks associated with medications during every visit to assess potential barriers to medication adherence. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konova, Anna B.; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2018-01-01

    Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience) in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from) mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting —such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates— result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity. PMID:29373590

  5. Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Lopez-Guzman

    Full Text Available Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting -such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates- result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity.

  6. Risk preferences impose a hidden distortion on measures of choice impulsivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Guzman, Silvia; Konova, Anna B; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W

    2018-01-01

    Measuring temporal discounting through the use of intertemporal choice tasks is now the gold standard method for quantifying human choice impulsivity (impatience) in neuroscience, psychology, behavioral economics, public health and computational psychiatry. A recent area of growing interest is individual differences in discounting levels, as these may predispose to (or protect from) mental health disorders, addictive behaviors, and other diseases. At the same time, more and more studies have been dedicated to the quantification of individual attitudes towards risk, which have been measured in many clinical and non-clinical populations using closely related techniques. Economists have pointed to interactions between measurements of time preferences and risk preferences that may distort estimations of the discount rate. However, although becoming standard practice in economics, discount rates and risk preferences are rarely measured simultaneously in the same subjects in other fields, and the magnitude of the imposed distortion is unknown in the assessment of individual differences. Here, we show that standard models of temporal discounting -such as a hyperbolic discounting model widely present in the literature which fails to account for risk attitudes in the estimation of discount rates- result in a large and systematic pattern of bias in estimated discounting parameters. This can lead to the spurious attribution of differences in impulsivity between individuals when in fact differences in risk attitudes account for observed behavioral differences. We advance a model which, when applied to standard choice tasks typically used in psychology and neuroscience, provides both a better fit to the data and successfully de-correlates risk and impulsivity parameters. This results in measures that are more accurate and thus of greater utility to the many fields interested in individual differences in impulsivity.

  7. Reports of Wins and Risk Taking : An Investigation of the Mediating Effect of the Illusion of Control.

    OpenAIRE

    Martinez , Frederic; Le Floch , Valérie; Gaffié , Bernard; Villejoubert , Gaëlle

    2011-01-01

    International audience; Two experiments examined the relationships between the knowledge that another person has won in a gamble, the illusion of control and risk taking. Participants played a computer-simulated French roulette game individually. Before playing, some participants learnt that another person won a large amount of money. Results from a first experiment (n=24) validated a causal model where the knowledge of another person's win increased the illusion of control, measured with bet...

  8. Radon measurements in Ghana: health risk assesment at the Lake Bosomtwi basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andam, A.A.B.; Addison, E.C.K.; Nani, E.K.; Amankwah, E.A.

    2007-01-01

    The need to assess the risk of exposure to radon and its daughters stems from the reality, that radon is a potential carcinogenic. We report Radon-222 risk assessment, from measurements on soil and sediments taken from six towns along the Lake Bosomtwi basin at two levels of 10cm and 20cm. The current and future prospects of Lake Bosomtwi, the largest natural lake in Ghana, make this assessment imperative, since radon forms half of natural background radiation. Spatial Analyser Decision Assistant (SADA) algorithms were used to model the measured radon concentrations under two land-use scenarios, namely residential and recreational. Setting the data under a targeted risk of 1E-6,we found that the external exposure was below that of the maximum concentrations to the measurements. This indicates that the radon levels around those towns as of the time of the measurements is low and below limits which can cause carcinogenic threats. The mean risk associated with the sampled locations was found to be 9E-11 at the recreational areas and 2E-8 at residential centres. To confirm the authenticity of the point risk analysis, geospatial modelling based on inverse distance interpolation schemes were performed. The results tally closely with that of the measured point risk analysis with and error margin of 2% and 1.3 % for both land use scenarios at 10 cm and 20 cm depth respectively. (au)

  9. Foot length measurements of newborns of high and low risk pregnancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salge, Ana Karina Marques; Rocha, Érika Lopes; Gaíva, Maria Aparecida Munhoz; Castral, Thaíla Correa; Guimarães, Janaína Valadares; Xavier, Raphaela Maioni

    2017-03-09

    Comparing foot length measurements of newborns in high and low risk pregnancies at a public hospital in Goiânia, GO, Brazil. A cross-sectional study carried out between April, 2013 and May, 2015, with a sample consisting of 180 newborns; 106 infants of women from high-risk pregnancies and 74 of women from low-risk pregnancies. Data were descriptively analyzed. Foot length measurement was performed using a stiff transparent plastic ruler, graduated in millimeters. The length of both feet was measured from the tip of the hallux (big toe) to the end of the heel. A statistically significant relationship was found between the foot length and newborn's weight, between the cephalic and thoracic perimeters in the high-risk group and between the cephalic perimeter in the control group. There is a need for creating cut-off points to identify newborns with intrauterine growth disorders using foot length. Comparar as medidas do comprimento hálux-calcâneo de recém-nascidos em gestações de alto e baixo risco em um hospital público de Goiânia, GO. Estudo transversal, realizado no período de abril de 2013 a maio de 2015, cuja amostra constituiu-se de 180 recém-nascidos, 106 filhos de mulheres com gestação de alto risco e 74 de mulheres com gestação de baixo risco. Os dados foram analisados descritivamente. A medida do comprimento hálux-calcâneo foi realizada utilizando-se de régua plástica transparente rígida, graduada em milímetros. Foram medidos ambos os pés, aferindo-se o comprimento da ponta do hálux até a extremidade do calcâneo. Foi encontrada relação estatisticamente significante entre o comprimento hálux-calcâneo e o peso do recém-nascido, entre os perímetros cefálico e torácico no grupo de alto risco e entre o perímetro cefálico no grupo controle. Existe necessidade da criação de pontos de corte para identificar recém-nascidos com desvios de crescimento intrauterino utilizando-se do comprimento hálux-calcâneo. Comparar las mediciones

  10. Risk Management of Interest Rate Derivative Portfolios: A Stochastic Control Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos Kiriakopoulos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we formulate the Risk Management Control problem in the interest rate area as a constrained stochastic portfolio optimization problem. The utility that we use can be any continuous function and based on the viscosity theory, the unique solution of the problem is guaranteed. The numerical approximation scheme is presented and applied using a single factor interest rate model. It is shown how the whole methodology works in practice, with the implementation of the algorithm for a specific interest rate portfolio. The recent financial crisis showed that risk management of derivatives portfolios especially in the interest rate market is crucial for the stability of the financial system. Modern Value at Risk (VAR and Conditional Value at Risk (CVAR techniques, although very useful and easy to understand, fail to grasp the need for on-line controlling and monitoring of derivatives portfolio. The portfolios should be designed in a way that risk and return be quantified and controlled in every possible state of the world. We hope that this methodology contributes towards this direction.

  11. Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai

    2018-05-01

    Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

  12. Measuring Systemic Risk of Banking in Indonesia: Conditional Value at Risk Model Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harjum Muharam

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Systemic risk is a risk of collapse of the financial system that would cause the financial system is not functioning properly. Measurement of systemic risk in the financial institutions, especially banks are crucial, because banks are highly vulnerable to financial crisis. In this study, to estimate the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR used quantile regression. Samples in this study of 9 banks have total assets of the largest in Indonesia. Testing the correlation between VaR and ΔCoVaR in this study using Spearman correlation and Kendall's Tau. There are five banks that have a significant correlation between VaR and ΔCoVaR, meanwhile four others banks in the sample did not have a significant correlation. However, the correlation coefficient is below 0.50, which indicates that there is a weak correlation between VaR and CoVaR.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5296

  13. Is energy imparted a good measure of the radiation risk associated with CT examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huda, W.

    1984-01-01

    The dose distribution in a Rando phantom has been measured for typical EMI 5005 CT scans of the head, chest, abdomen and pelvis. These dose distributions have been used to generate quantitative estimates of the somatic and genetic radiation risks associated with these CT examinations and also to measure the total energy imparted during each scan. A comparison has been made between the radiation risk estimates and the energy imparted measurements. The energy imparted measurements are not a good indicator of the somatic and/or genetic risks when one type of CT scan is compared with another. However, for a given type of scan, the energy imparted may be a reasonable indicator of the relative somatic risks associated with different CT examinations. Considerable care should be taken when interpreting and using any measured value of energy imparted in a radiological examination since published values of the risk per unit energy imparted can significantly underestimate the radiation risk. (author)

  14. 77 FR 5155 - Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-02

    ... directors and management; appropriate IRR measurement and monitoring systems; good internal controls; and... Systems B. Risk Measurement Methods C. Components of IRR Measurement Methods V. Internal Controls VI... risk management and a program to effectively implement that policy, as part of their asset liability...

  15. Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  16. Risk assessment and HbA1c measurement in Norwegian community pharmacies to identify people with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes - A feasibility study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risøy, Aslaug Johanne; Kjome, Reidun Lisbet Skeide; Sandberg, Sverre; Sølvik, Una Ørvim

    2018-01-01

    Determine the feasibility of using a diabetes risk assessment tool followed by HbA1c-measurement in a community-pharmacy setting in Norway. In this longitudinal study two pharmacists in each of three community pharmacies were trained to perform risk assessments, HbA1c-measurements and counselling. Pharmacy customers who were > 18 years old and could understand and speak Norwegian or English were recruited in the pharmacies during a two-months-period. Information about the service was presented in local newspapers, social media, leaflets and posters at the pharmacy. Customers wishing to participate contacted the pharmacy staff. Participants completed a validated diabetes risk test and a background questionnaire including a validated instrument for self-rated health. A HbA1c measurement was performed for individuals with a moderate to high risk of developing diabetes. If HbA1c ≥ 6.5% they were recommended to visit their general practitioner for follow-up. The pharmacies performed internal and external quality control of the HbA1c instrument. Of the 211 included participants 97 (46%) were > 50 years old. HbA1c was measured for the 47 participants (22%) with high risk. Thirty-two (15%) had HbA1c values HbA1c ≥ 6.5%. Two participants with HbA1 ≥ 6.5% were diagnosed with diabetes by their general practitioner. The third was lost to follow-up. Results from internal and external quality control for HbA1c were within set limits. The pharmacists were able to perform the risk assessment and measurement of HbA1c, and pharmacy customers were willing to participate. The HbA1c measurements fulfilled the requirements for analytical quality. Thus, it is feasible to implement this service in community pharmacies in Norway. In a large-scale study the inclusion criteria should be increased to 45 years in accordance with the population the risk test has been validated for.

  17. Risk Level Based Management System: a control banding model for occupational health and safety risk management in a highly regulated environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zalk, D; Kamerzell, R; Paik, S; Kapp, J; Harrington, D; Swuste, P

    2009-05-27

    The Risk Level Based Management System (RLBMS) is an occupational risk management (ORM) model that focuses occupational safety, hygeiene, and health (OSHH) resources on the highest risk procedures at work. This article demonstrates the model's simplicity through an implementation within a heavily regulated research institution. The model utilizes control banding strategies with a stratification of four risk levels (RLs) for many commonly performed maintenance and support activities, characterizing risk consistently for comparable tasks. RLBMS creates an auditable tracking of activities, maximizes OSHH professional field time, and standardizes documentation and control commensurate to a given task's RL. Validation of RLs and their exposure control effectiveness is collected in a traditional quantitative collection regime for regulatory auditing. However, qualitative risk assessment methods are also used within this validation process. Participatory approaches are used throughout the RLBMS process. Workers are involved in all phases of building, maintaining, and improving this model. This work participation also improves the implementation of established controls.

  18. Integrated Approach Model of Risk, Control and Auditing of Accounting Information Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu BRANDAS

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of IT in the financial and accounting processes is growing fast and this leads to an increase in the research and professional concerns about the risks, control and audit of Ac-counting Information Systems (AIS. In this context, the risk and control of AIS approach is a central component of processes for IT audit, financial audit and IT Governance. Recent studies in the literature on the concepts of risk, control and auditing of AIS outline two approaches: (1 a professional approach in which we can fit ISA, COBIT, IT Risk, COSO and SOX, and (2 a research oriented approach in which we emphasize research on continuous auditing and fraud using information technology. Starting from the limits of existing approaches, our study is aimed to developing and testing an Integrated Approach Model of Risk, Control and Auditing of AIS on three cycles of business processes: purchases cycle, sales cycle and cash cycle in order to improve the efficiency of IT Governance, as well as ensuring integrity, reality, accuracy and availability of financial statements.

  19. The instability of downside risk measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varga-Haszonits, I; Kondor, I

    2008-01-01

    We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (value-at-risk, expected shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic issue, depending on the particular random sample, in all three cases. At a critical combination of the parameters of these problems we find an algorithmic phase transition, separating the phase where the optimization is feasible from the one where it is not. This transition is similar to the one discovered earlier for expected shortfall based on historical time series. We employ the replica method to compute the phase diagram, as well as to obtain the critical exponent of the estimation error that diverges at the critical point. The analytical results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations

  20. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  1. [Communication on health and safety risk control in contemporary society: an interdisciplinary approach].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangel-S, Maria Ligia

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses communication as a technology for risk control with health and safety protection and promotion, within the context of a "risk society". As a component of Risk Analysis, risk communication is a technology that appears in risk literature, with well defined objectives, principles and models. These aspects are described and the difficulties are stressed, taking into consideration the multiple rationales related to risks in the culture and the many different aspects of risk regulation and control in the so-called "late modernity". Consideration is also given to the complexity of the communications process, guided by theoretical and methodological discussions in the field. In order to understand the true value of the communications field for risk control with health and safety protection and promotion, this paper also offers an overview of communication theories that support discussions of this matter, proposing a critical approach to models that include the dimensions of power and culture in the context of a capitalist society.

  2. Serum organochlorine pesticide residues and risk of testicular germ cell carcinoma: a population-based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggs, Mary L; Davis, Mark D; Eaton, David L; Weiss, Noel S; Barr, Dana B; Doody, David R; Fish, Sherianne; Needham, Larry L; Chen, Chu; Schwartz, Stephen M

    2008-08-01

    Testicular germ cell carcinoma (TGCC) is the most common malignancy among men ages 20 to 34 years. Although the pathogenesis of TGCC is poorly understood, suboptimal androgen levels or impaired androgen signaling may play a role. Some persistent organochlorine pesticides commonly found in human tissue possess antiandrogenic properties. We examined whether the risk of TGCC is associated with serum levels of 11 organochlorine pesticides, including p,p'-DDE, and whether the p,p'-DDE-TGCC association is modified by CAG or GGN repeat polymorphisms in the androgen receptor gene. We conducted a population-based case-control study among 18- to 44-year-old male residents of three Washington State counties. Cases (n = 246) were diagnosed during 1999 to 2003 with a first, primary TGCC. Controls (n = 630) were men of similar age with no history of TGCC from the same population identified through random-digit telephone dialing. Questionnaires elicited information on demographic, medical, and lifestyle factors. A blood specimen provided serum for gas chromatography-high-resolution mass spectrometry analysis of organochlorine pesticide residues and DNA for genotyping. We observed no clear patterns between TGCC risk and concentrations of any of the organochlorines measured, nor did we observe that the risk associated with p,p'-DDE was modified by androgen receptor CAG ( or =23 repeats) or GGN ( or =17 repeats) genotype. This study does not provide support for the hypothesis that adult exposure to organochlorine pesticides is associated with risk of TGCC. Due to uncertainty regarding how well organochlorine levels measured in adulthood reflect exposures during early life, further research is needed using exposure measurements collected in utero or during infancy.

  3. A case-control study: occupational cooking and the risk of uveal melanoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marr Anja

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A European-wide population based case-control study (European rare cancer study undertaken in nine European countries examined risk factors for uveal melanoma. They found a positive association between cooks and the risk of uveal melanoma. In our study we examine whether cooks or people who worked in cook related jobs have an increased uveal melanoma risk. Methods We conducted a case-control study during 2002 and 2005. Overall, 1653 eligible subjects (age range: 20-74 years, living in Germany participated. Interviews were conducted with 459 incident uveal melanoma cases, 827 population controls, 180 ophthalmologist controls and 187 sibling controls. Data on occupational exposure were obtained from a self-administered postal questionnaire and a computer-assisted telephone interview. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios adjusting for the matching factors. Results Overall, we did not observe an increased risk of uveal melanoma among people who worked as cooks or who worked in cook related jobs. When we restricted the source population of our study to the population of the Federal State of Northrhine-Westphalia, we observed an increased risk among subjects who were categorized as cooks in the cases-control analysis. Conclusion Our results are in conflict with former results of the European rare cancer study. Considering the rarity of the disease laboratory in vitro studies of human uveal melanoma cell lines should be done to analyze potential exposure risk factors like radiation from microwaves, strong light from incandescent ovens, or infrared radiation.

  4. Suicide risk in placebo-controlled studies of major depression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Storosum, J. G.; van Zwieten, B. J.; van den Brink, W.; Gersons, B. P.; Broekmans, A. W.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if fear of an increased risk of attempted suicide in placebo groups participating in placebo-controlled studies is an argument against the performance of placebo-controlled trials in studies of major depression. All short-term and long-term,

  5. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  6. [Cardiovascular risk profile of uncontrolled hypertensive patients. The Control-Project study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Márquez-Contreras, Emilio; Coca, Antonio; de la Figuera von Wichmann, Mariano; Divisón, Juan Antonio; Llisterri, José Luis; Sobrino, Javier; Filozof, Claudia; Sánchez-Zamorano, Miguel Angel; Grigorian Shamagian, Lilian

    2007-01-27

    To assess absolute cardiovascular risk and co-morbidities in uncontrolled hypertensive patients (blood pressure [BP]>or=140/90 mmHg or>or=130/80 mmHg in diabetics) attending Primary Care Physicians in Spain, and to determine the attitudes of these physicians towards this problem. Cross-sectional, multicenter study involving 356 general practitioners around Spain. Absolute cardiovascular risk was assessed according to ESH-ESC 2003 Guidelines in a sample of 1,710 patients. Two hundred ninety seven patients were excluded by several reasons and a total of 1,413 hypertensive patients were valuable (mean age: 65.3+/-11.4 years; 56.7% women). Normal BP values (or=180/110 mmHg) by 7.9%. Associated cardiovascular risk factors were observed in 96.0% of patients (95% CI=94.7-97.2%), target organ damage in 34.5% (95% CI=31.6-36.5%), and cardiovascular clinical disease in 36.0% (95% CI=33.5-38.5%). According to ESH-ESC 2003 Guidelines 34.0% (CI=31.5-38.2%) were at very-high risk; 29.4% (95% CI=26.4-32.8%) at high risk; 30.4% (95% CI=27.2-33.7%) at moderate risk and 5.4% (95% CI=3.9-7.2%) at low risk of cardiovascular disease. Despite the high absolute risk, physicians did not do any therapeutic change in 30.4% (95% CI=28.2-33.5%) of uncontrolled hypertensive patients. Most of them (64.26%) considered that bad compliance to life style changes was the reason for inadequate BP control. The most frequent measure introduced was the association of additional drugs. Absolute cardiovascular risk in uncontrolled hypertensive patients attending Primary Care Physicians in Spain is very relevant. Sixty-five percent of these patients are at high or very high risk with a high prevalence of target organ damage or associated cardiovascular clinical disease. Therapeutic attitudes towards these patients are still very conservative although they are improving compared with previous studies.

  7. Epidemiologic measures of risk as a basis for legal compensation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeighami, E.A.; Walsh, P.J.; Morris, M.D.; Jones, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    The scientific basis for compensation of persons developing cancer who have a documented history of exposure to radiation or other carcinogens is an important legal issue. The measure Relative Attributable Risk (RAR) has been proposed as a basis for determining eligibility for compensation. The purpose of this report is to present results of an analysis of the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in the RAR measure. The range of 1/10 6 /rad-year to 6/10 6 /rad-year was chosen as a reasonable range of excess-risk estimates for thyroid cancer based on published estimates. The use of such a range in risk estimates produces very wide variability in RAR estimates. Uncertainty in underlying incidence levels and in dosimetry are other major factors contributing to large variability in estimated RAR levels

  8. Cancer and risk of cerebral venous thrombosis: a case-control study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silvis, S. M.; Hiltunen, S.; Lindgren, E.; Jood, K.; Zuurbier, S. M.; Middeldorp, S.; Putaala, J.; Cannegieter, S. C.; Tatlisumak, T.; Coutinho, J. M.

    2018-01-01

    Background: Cancer is an established risk factor for leg vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. Controlled studies assessing the risk of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) in patients with cancer have not been performed. Objective: To assess whether cancer is a risk factor for CVT. Patients/Methods:

  9. A new importance measure for risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2000-01-01

    Recently, several authors pointed out that the traditional importance measures had limitations. In this study, the problem through an analysis at the parameter level was investigated and a new measure was introduced. The measure was based on small parameter variations and is capable of accounting for the importance of a group of components/parameters. The definition, computational steps, and an application of a new importance measure for risk-informed decision making were presented here. Unlike traditional importance measures, differential importance measure (DIM) deals with changes in the various parameters that determine the unavailability/unreliability of a component, e.g., failure rates, common-cause failure rates, individual human errors. The importance of the component unavailability/unreliability can be calculated from the importance of the parameters. DIM can be calculated for the frequency of initiating events, while risk achievement worth (RAW) is limited to binary events, e.g., component unavailability. The changes in parameters are 'small'. This is more realistic than the drastic assumption in RAW that the component is always down. DIM is additive. This allows the evaluation of the impact of changes, such as the relaxation of quality assurance requirements, which affect groups of parameters, e.g., the failure rates of a group of pumps. (M.N.)

  10. Pandemic preparedness - Risk management and infection control for all respiratory infection outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nori, Annapurna; Williams, Mary-Anne

    2009-11-01

    There has been substantial effort and activity in regards to pandemic planning, preparedness and response, mainly in the realm of public health. However, general practitioners and other primary care providers are important players in the health response to a pandemic. To discuss the importance of general practice preparedness for managing respiratory infection outbreaks and to provide a model for the general practice response. Pandemic planning and preparedness in general practice is ultimately a crucial risk management exercise, the cornerstone of which is sound infection control. As planning will be significantly aided by, and should extend to, other respiratory outbreaks, we propose a framework for managing outbreaks of respiratory infections with a focus on planned, practised and habitual infection control measures, and a stepwise response according to the extent and severity of the outbreak.

  11. Decision making concept of risk control: integration of decision criteria, top level risk indices and plant performance indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vojnovic, D.; Mavko, B.; Kozuh, M.

    1993-01-01

    A support system for risk monitoring and control is suggested. The following concepts of system elements are briefly discussed: risk curve partitioning, the reliability cost function, the multi-objective optimization model, preference assessment, safety/risk indicators, and knowledge based systems. (Z.S.) 2 figs

  12. Statin use and risk of prostate cancer: a Danish population-based case-control study, 1997-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jespersen, Christina G; Nørgaard, Mette; Friis, Søren; Skriver, Charlotte; Borre, Michael

    2014-02-01

    Conflicting evidence has suggested that statins possess chemopreventive properties against prostate cancer (PCa). Therefore, we examined the association between statin use and risk of PCa in a Denmark-based case-control study. We identified 42,480 patients diagnosed with incident PCa during 1997-2010 from a national cancer registry. Five age-matched population controls (n=212,400) were selected for each case using risk-set sampling. Statin use from 1996 to the index date was obtained from the National Prescription Registry. Odds ratios (ORs) adjusted for age, comorbidity, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, and educational level for PCa associated with statin use, were computed using conditional logistic regression. Analyses were stratified by duration of statin use (0-1, 2-4, 5-9, or ≥10 years), stage of PCa (localized or advanced), and type of statin used (lipophilic or hydrophilic). In total, 7915 patients (19%) and 39,384 controls (19%) redeemed statin prescriptions prior to the index date. Overall, statin users had a 6% lower risk of PCa compared with non-users [adjusted OR (ORa), 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.91-0.97]. Risk estimates did not differ substantially by duration or type of statin used. Slightly larger statin use-associated risk reductions were observed for advanced PCa (ORa, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.85-0.96) and with statin use ≥10 years (ORa, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.65-0.95). Statin use was associated with a risk reduction overall (6%) and, specifically with advanced PCa (10%). Differences in diagnostic measures and residual confounding by socioeconomic parameters may have influenced our results. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Drinking without thinking: an implicit measure of alcohol motivation predicts failure to control alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostafin, Brian D; Marlatt, G Alan; Greenwald, Anthony G

    2008-11-01

    Addiction is characterized by dyscontrol - substance use despite intentions to restrain. Using a sample of at-risk drinkers, the present study examined whether an implicit measure of alcohol motivation (the Implicit Association Test [IAT]; Greenwald, A.G., McGhee, D.E., & Schwartz, J.L.K. (1998). Measuring individual differences in implicit cognition: the Implicit Association Test. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74, 1464-1480) would predict dyscontrol of alcohol use. Participants completed an IAT and, to elicit motivation to restrain alcohol use, were instructed that greater consumption in a taste test would impair performance on a later task for which they could win a prize. All participants viewed aversive slides and then completed a thought-listing task. Participants either exerted self-control by suppressing negative affect and thoughts regarding the slides or did not exert self-control. Post-manipulation, the groups did not differ in mood, urge to drink or motivation to restrain consumption. During the subsequent taste test, participants whose self-control resources were depleted consumed more alcohol than did those in the control group. Additionally, the IAT, but not an explicit measure of alcohol motivation, more strongly predicted alcohol use when self-control resources were depleted. The results indicate that the IAT may have utility in predicting dyscontrolled alcohol use.

  14. The Use of Importance Measures for Quantification of Multi-unit Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Seung-Cheol; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    In this paper, we focus on the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies, i.e., conditional core damage probability (CCDP) for a MUI from the SUR model. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the interunit dependency, using importance measures. Note that the 1{sup st} and 2{sup nd} terms in the left hand side of the equation have different units of risk measure, i.e., reactor operating year and site operating year, respectively. The total risk of multi-unit reactor accidents concurred by the independent accident sequences each single-unit (the 1{sup st} term in the right-hand side of the Equation 1) can approximate the sum of n single-unit risk conservatively. It corresponds to the traditional multi-unit risk profile concept having used since post-PSA era. Simultaneously, the Equation 1 represent that multi-unit risk within a site with n units has been underestimated as much as the amount of the 2{sup nd} term (MUR by multi-unit initiators), which consists of three parts: 1) the frequency estimation of a MUI, , 2) the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies for a MUI, , and 3) the multi-unit consequence analysis for a MUI. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the inter-unit dependency, using importance measures. It can facilitate the treatment of the inter-unit dependencies in the multi-unit risk model and can give more comprehensive and more practicable technical platform for estimating multi-unit site risk.

  15. The Use of Importance Measures for Quantification of Multi-unit Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Seung-Cheol; Lim, Ho-Gon

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we focus on the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies, i.e., conditional core damage probability (CCDP) for a MUI from the SUR model. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the interunit dependency, using importance measures. Note that the 1 st and 2 nd terms in the left hand side of the equation have different units of risk measure, i.e., reactor operating year and site operating year, respectively. The total risk of multi-unit reactor accidents concurred by the independent accident sequences each single-unit (the 1 st term in the right-hand side of the Equation 1) can approximate the sum of n single-unit risk conservatively. It corresponds to the traditional multi-unit risk profile concept having used since post-PSA era. Simultaneously, the Equation 1 represent that multi-unit risk within a site with n units has been underestimated as much as the amount of the 2 nd term (MUR by multi-unit initiators), which consists of three parts: 1) the frequency estimation of a MUI, , 2) the quantification of the multi-unit accident sequences frequencies for a MUI, , and 3) the multi-unit consequence analysis for a MUI. The paper proposes a method for the estimation of the r-units CCDP considered the inter-unit dependency, using importance measures. It can facilitate the treatment of the inter-unit dependencies in the multi-unit risk model and can give more comprehensive and more practicable technical platform for estimating multi-unit site risk

  16. Risk factors for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: a reanalysis of case-control studies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.P.W.M. Wientjens (Dorothee); Z. Davanipour; K. Kondo; W.B. Matthews; R.G. Will (Robert); C.M. van Duijn (Cornelia); A. Hofman (Albert)

    1996-01-01

    textabstractTo review the evidence for risk factors of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), we pooled and reanalyzed the raw data of three case-control studies. The pooled data set comprised 178 patients and 333 control subjects. The strength of association between CJD and putative risk factors was

  17. Design and validation of a questionnaire for measuring perceived risk of skin cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Sánchez, M A; Peralta-Pedrero, M L; Domínguez-Gómez, M A

    2014-04-01

    A perceived risk of cancer encourages preventive behavior while the lack of such a perception is a barrier to risk reduction. There are no instruments in Spanish to measure this perceived risk and thus quantify response to interventions for preventing this disease at a population level. The aim of this study was to design and validate a self-administered questionnaire for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer. A self-administered questionnaire with a visual Likert-type scale was designed based on the results of the analysis of the content of a survey performed in 100 patients in the Dr. Ladislao de la Pascua Skin Clinic, Distrito Federal México, Mexico. Subsequently, the questionnaire was administered to a sample of 359 adult patients who attended the clinic for the first time. As no gold standard exists for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer, the construct was validated through factor analysis. The final questionnaire had 18 items. The internal consistency measured with Cronbach α was 0.824 overall. In the factor analysis, 4 factors (denoted as affective, behavioral, severity, and susceptibility) and an indicator of risk accounted for 65.133% of the variance. The psychometric properties of the scale were appropriate for measuring the perception of risk in adult patients (aged 18 years or more) who attended the dermatology clinic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

  18. Soya food intake and risk of endometrial cancer among Chinese women in Shanghai: population based case-control study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wang Hong; Zheng, Wei; Xiang, Yong Bing; Ruan, Zhi Xian; Cheng, Jia Rong; Dai, Qi; Gao, Yu Tang; Shu, Xiao Ou

    2004-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the association of intake of soya food, a rich source of phytoestrogens, with the risk of endometrial cancer. Design Population based case-control study, with detailed information on usual soya food intake over the past five years collected by face to face interview using a food frequency questionnaire. Setting Urban Shanghai, China. Participants 832 incident cases of endometrial cancer in women aged of 30 to 69 years diagnosed during 1997-2001 and identified from the Shanghai Cancer Registry; 846 control women frequency matched to cases on age and randomly selected from the Shanghai Residential Registry. Main outcome measures Odds ratios for risk of endometrial cancer in women with different intakes of soya foods. Results Regular consumption of soya foods, measured as amount of either soya protein or soya isoflavones, was inversely associated with the risk of endometrial cancer. Compared with women with the lowest quarter of intake, the adjusted odds ratio of endometrial cancer was reduced from 0.93 to 0.85 and 0.67 with increasing quarter of soya protein intake (P for trend 0.01). A similar inverse association was observed for soya isoflavones and soya fibre intake. The inverse association seemed to be more pronounced among women with high body mass index and waist:hip ratio. Conclusion Regular intake of soya foods is associated with a reduced risk of endometrial cancer. PMID:15136343

  19. Using the Clinical Interview and Curriculum Based Measurement to Examine Risk Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsburg, Herbert P.; Lee, Young-Sun; Pappas, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the power of the computer guided clinical interview (CI) and new curriculum based measurement (CBM) measures to identify and help children at risk of low mathematics achievement. We use data from large numbers of children in Kindergarten through Grade 3 to investigate the construct validity of CBM risk categories. The basic…

  20. Modifiable risk factors of ecstasy use: risk perception, current dependence, perceived control, and depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Kit Sang; Ben Abdallah, Arbi; Cottler, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    Risk perception, perceived behavioral control of obtaining ecstasy (PBC-obtaining), current ecstasy dependence, and recent depression have been associated with past ecstasy use, however, their utility in predicting ecstasy use has not been demonstrated. This study aimed to determine whether these four modifiable risk factors could predict ecstasy use after controlling for socio-demographic covariates and recent polydrug use. Data from 601 ecstasy users in the National Institute on Drug Abuse funded TriCity Study of Club Drug Use, Abuse and Dependence were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression. Participants were interviewed twice within a 2-week period using standardized instruments. Thirteen percent (n=80) of the participants reported using ecstasy between the two interviews. Low risk perception, high PBC-obtaining (an estimated ecstasy procurement time ecstasy dependence were statistically associated with ecstasy use between the two interviews. Recent depression was not a significant predictor. Despite not being a target predictor, recent polydrug use was also statistically associated with ecstasy use. The present findings may inform the development of interventions targeting ecstasy users. PMID:19880258

  1. Sugary food and beverage consumption and epithelial ovarian cancer risk: a population-based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Melony G; Olson, Sara H; Paddock, Lisa; Chandran, Urmila; Demissie, Kitaw; Lu, Shou-En; Parekh, Niyati; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Lorna; Bandera, Elisa V

    2013-02-27

    Ovarian cancer is the deadliest gynecologic cancer in the US. The consumption of refined sugars has increased dramatically over the past few decades, accounting for almost 15% of total energy intake. Yet, there is limited evidence on how sugar consumption affects ovarian cancer risk. We evaluated ovarian cancer risk in relation to sugary foods and beverages, and total and added sugar intakes in a population-based case-control study. Cases were women with newly diagnosed epithelial ovarian cancer, older than 21 years, able to speak English or Spanish, and residents of six counties in New Jersey. Controls met same criteria as cases, but were ineligible if they had both ovaries removed. A total of 205 cases and 390 controls completed a phone interview, food frequency questionnaire, and self-recorded waist and hip measurements. Based on dietary data, we computed the number of servings of dessert foods, non-dessert foods, sugary drinks and total sugary foods and drinks for each participant. Total and added sugar intakes (grams/day) were also calculated. Multiple logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for food and drink groups and total and added sugar intakes, while adjusting for major risk factors. We did not find evidence of an association between consumption of sugary foods and beverages and risk, although there was a suggestion of increased risk associated with sugary drink intake (servings per 1,000 kcal; OR=1.63, 95% CI: 0.94-2.83). Overall, we found little indication that sugar intake played a major role on ovarian cancer development.

  2. Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhairan Y Yunan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

  3. Antepartum risk factors for newborn encephalopathy: the Western Australian case-control study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawi, Nadia; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J; Keogh, John M; Alessandri, Louisa M; O’Sullivan, Fiona; Burton, Paul R; Pemberton, Patrick J; Stanley, Fiona J

    1998-01-01

    Objective To ascertain antepartum predictors of newborn encephalopathy in term infants. Design Population based, unmatched case-control study. Setting Metropolitan area of Western Australia, June 1993 to September 1995. Subjects All 164 term infants with moderate or severe newborn encephalopathy; 400 randomly selected controls. Main outcome measures Adjusted odds ratio estimates. Results The birth prevalence of moderate or severe newborn encephalopathy was 3.8/1000 term live births. The neonatal fatality was 9.1%. The risk of newborn encephalopathy increased with increasing maternal age and decreased with increasing parity. There was an increased risk associated with having a mother who was unemployed (odds ratio 3.60), an unskilled manual worker (3.84), or a housewife (2.48). Other risk factors from before conception were not having private health insurance (3.46), a family history of seizures (2.55), a family history of neurological disease (2.73), and infertility treatment (4.43). Risk factors during pregnancy were maternal thyroid disease (9.7), severe pre-eclampsia (6.30), moderate or severe bleeding (3.57), a clinically diagnosed viral illness (2.97), not having drunk alcohol (2.91); and placenta described at delivery as abnormal (2.07). Factors related to the baby were birth weight adjusted for gestational age between the third and ninth centile (4.37) or below the third centile (38.23). The risk relation with gestational age was J shaped with 38 and 39 weeks having the lowest risk. Conclusions The causes of newborn encephalopathy are heterogeneous and many of the causal pathways start before birth. Key messagesThe birth prevalence of moderate or severe newborn encephalopathy was 3.8 per 1000 term live births and the neonatal case fatality was 9.1%Independent risk factors before conception and in the antepartum period for newborn encephalopathy include socioeconomic status, family history of seizures or other neurological disease, conception after

  4. A risk-return based model to measure the performance of portfolio management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Vakili Fard

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The primary concern in all portfolio management systems is to find a good tradeoff between risk and expected return and a good balance between accepted risk and actual return indicates the performance of a particular portfolio. This paper develops “A-Y Model” to measure the performance of a portfolio and analyze it during the bull and the bear market. This paper considers the daily information of one year before and one year after Iran's 2013 precedential election. The proposed model of this paper provides lost profit and unrealized loss to measure the portfolio performance. The proposed study first ranks the resulted data and then uses some non-parametric methods to see whether there is any change because of the changes in markets on the performance of the portfolio. The results indicate that despite increasing profitable opportunities in bull market, the performance of the portfolio did not match the target risk. As a result, using A-Y Model as a risk and return base model to measure portfolio management's performance appears to reduce risks and increases return of portfolio.

  5. Neonatal risk factors for cerebral palsy in very preterm babies: case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, D. J.; Hope, P. L.; Johnson, A.

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To identify neonatal risk factors for cerebral palsy among very preterm babies and in particular the associations independent of the coexistence of antenatal and intrapartum factors. DESIGN: Case-control study. SETTING: Oxford health region. SUBJECTS: Singleton babies born between 1984 and 1990 at less than 32 weeks' gestation who survived to discharge from hospital: 59 with cerebral palsy and 234 randomly selected controls without cerebral palsy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Adverse neonatal factors expressed as odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Factors associated with an increased risk of cerebral palsy after adjustment for gestational age and the presence of previously identified antenatal and intrapartum risk factors were patent ductus arteriosus (odds ratio 2.3; 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 4.5), hypotension (2.3; 1.3 to 4.7), blood transfusion (4.8; 2.5 to 9.3), prolonged ventilation (4.8; 2.5 to 9.0), pneumothorax (3.5; 1.6 to 7.6), sepsis (3.6; 1.8 to 7.4), hyponatraemia (7.9; 2.1 to 29.6) and total parenteral nutrition (5.5; 2.8 to 10.5). Seizures were associated with an increased risk of cerebral palsy (10.0; 4.1 to 24.7), as were parenchymal damage (32; 12.4 to 84.4) and appreciable ventricular dilatation (5.4; 3.0 to 9.8) detected by cerebral ultrasound. CONCLUSION: A reduction in the rate of cerebral palsy in very preterm babies requires an integrated approach to management throughout the antenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal periods. PMID:9040385

  6. Methodology for risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valle, Antonio Torres; Oliva, Jose de Jesus Rivero

    2012-01-01

    The hazardous configurations control in Nuclear Power Plants is an application of a previous Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA). A more complete option would be the risk monitoring for the online detection of these configurations but expert personnel would be required to deal with the complexities of PSA and risk monitor. The paper presents a simpler but effective approach: a method of configuration control, based on dependencies matrixes. The algorithm is included in a computer code called SECURE A-Z. The configuration control is carried out in a qualitative way, without previous PSA results and not using a Risk Monitor. The simplicity of the method warrants its application to facilities where these tools have not been developed, allowing the detection of hazardous configurations during operation and increasing plant safety. This configuration control system was implemented in the Embalse Nuclear Power Plant in Argentina. The paper shows the application of the algorithm to the analysis of a simplified safety system. (author)

  7. Health insurance status and control of diabetes and coronary artery disease risk factors on enrollment into the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grogan, Mary; Jenkins, Margaret; Sansing, Veronica V; MacGregor, Joan; Brooks, Maria Mori; Julien-Williams, Patricia; Amendola, Angela; Abbott, J Dawn

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine measures of chronic disease severity and treatment according to insurance status in a clinical trial setting. Baseline insurance status of 776 patients with type 2 diabetes and stable coronary artery disease (CAD) enrolled in the United States in the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial was analyzed with regard to measures of metabolic and cardiovascular risk factor control. Compared with patients with private or public insurance, the uninsured were younger, more often female, and less often white non-Hispanic. Uninsured patients had the greatest burden of CAD. Patients with public insurance were treated with the greatest number of medications, had the greatest self-reported functional status, and the lowest mean glycosylated hemoglobin and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol values. Overall, for 5 measured risk factor targets, the mean number above goal was 2.49 ± 1.18. After adjustment for demographic and clinical variables, insurance status was not associated with a difference in risk factor control. In the BARI 2D trial, we did not observe a difference in baseline cardiovascular risk factor control according to insurance status. An important observation, however, was that risk factor control overall was suboptimal, which highlights the difficulty in treating type 2 diabetes and CAD irrespective of insurance status.

  8. A Matched Case-Control Study of Risk Factors for Breast Cancer Risk in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Nguyen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Vietnam has a low age-standardized incidence of breast cancer, but the incidence is rising rapidly with economic development. We report data from a matched case-control study of risk factors for breast cancer in the largest cancer hospital in Vietnam. Methods. 492 incident breast cancer cases unselected for family history or age at diagnosis and 1306 control women age 25–75 were recruited from the National Cancer Hospital (BVK, Hanoi. Structured interviews were conducted and pathology data was centrally reported at the National Cancer Hospital of Vietnam, in Hanoi. Results. Our analysis included 294 matched pairs. Mean age at diagnosis was 46.7 years. Lower mean parity, older age at first parity, increasing weight and BMI at age 18, and increasing BMI at diagnosis were positively correlated with breast cancer cases compared to controls. Age at first menarche and duration of breastfeeding were not statistically different between cases and controls. Conclusions. In this study we demonstrate that breast cancer in Vietnam is associated with some but not all of the published risk factors from Western populations. Our data is consistent with other studies of breast cancer in Asian populations.

  9. Knowledge of Risk Factors and Preventive Measures of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of the study was to elicit the knowledge of risk factors and preventive measures of hypertension among Child Bearing Mothers (CBMs) in Udenu Local Government Area of Enugu State, Nigeria. The study adopted the descriptive research design. Specifically, three objectives with three corresponding research ...

  10. Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Niemelae, I.

    1993-05-01

    The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

  11. Risk Factors For Ectopic Pregnancy : A Case Control Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deshmukh J.S

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Research question: Which are the risk factors for ectopic pregnancy . Objective: To study the strength of association between hypothesised risk factors and ectopic pregnancy. Study design: Unmatched case- control study. Setting: Government Medical College, Hospital, Nagpur. Participants: 133 cases of ectopic pregnancy and equal number of controls (non pregnant women admitted to study hospital. Study variables : Pelvic inflammatory diseases, sexually transmitted diseases, IUD use at conception , past use of IUD, prior ectopic pregnancy, OC pills use at the time of conception, past use of OC pills, induced abortion, spontaneous abortion, infertility and pelvic and abdominal surgery. Statistical analysis: Odds ratios & their 95% CI, Pearson’s chi square test, unconditional logistic regression analysis and population attributable risk proportion. Results : Use of IUD at conception, prior ectopic pregnancy , pelvic inflammatory disease, sexually transmitted diseases, infertility, OC pills use at the time of conception, past use of IUD and induced abortion were found to be significantly associated with ectopic pregnancy. Conclusion: Identification of these risk factors for etopic pregnancy shall help in early detection and appropriate management in an individual case and it may help in devising a comprehensive preventive strategy for ectopic pregnancy

  12. Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

  13. Risk Assessment Generated by Usage of ICT and Information Security Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilie TAMAS

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Information societies involve the usage of information technology and communications (ITC on a large scale. The dependence on ITC is an unquestionable problem in the present, because we assist to a generality of computers usage in all economic and social life activities. That is why organization information systems became accessible at the global level and there are permanently open for a quick exchange of information between different categories of users located by different geographical nods. The ITC usage involves the existing of some risks that should be known, evaluation and based on these, we must have information systems security measure. We consider that the risk is an indicator very important that must be permanently assess in the usage process of the information system based on ITC. Risk management suppose a permanently evaluation of these problems and also restrain by some practical actions who goes to the decrease of its effects. From the expose point of view, in this paper work it is presented the results of research based on specialty literature and current cases from practical activities, regarding the risks of ITC usage and their diminishing measure. There are distinguished the main factors (threat, vulnerability and impact who affect the information risk and on the other way, diminishing measure of the action to these factors for optimum working of an economic and social organism who use ITC. We consider that through proposed measures we assume safety in design process, implement and usage of the informational systems based on ITC.

  14. Farmers prone to drought risk : why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates farmers’ cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer

  15. TOWARDS MEASURES OF INTELLIGENCE BASED ON SEMIOTIC CONTROL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. JOSLYN

    2000-08-01

    We address the question of how to identify and measure the degree of intelligence in systems. We define the presence of intelligence as equivalent to the presence of a control relation. We contrast the distinct atomic semioic definitions of models and controls, and discuss hierarchical and anticipatory control. We conclude with a suggestion about moving towards quantitative measures of the degree of such control in systems.

  16. The effects of providing periodontal disease risk information on psychological outcomes - a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asimakopoulou, Koula; Newton, Jonathon Tim; Daly, Blánaid; Kutzer, Yvonne; Ide, Mark

    2015-04-01

    In a two arm randomized controlled trial this study compared the effects of a routine periodontal assessment consultation versus a routine consultation + individualized risk assessment communication intervention on patient thoughts and emotions about periodontal disease. Adults (N = 102) with moderate/advanced chronic periodontitis referred to a Periodontology Department of a large UK dental school, completed psychological measures before a periodontal assessment and again at the end of the visit. Intervention participants received an individualized calculation of their periodontal disease risk using PreViser Risk Calculator in addition to their routine assessment consultation. In routine care, patients' thoughts about periodontal disease seriousness (p periodontal disease. These effects were also seen in intervention participants. Additionally, the individualized risk communication intervention led to patients reporting i) periodontal disease treatment as more effective than they did pre-consultation (p periodontal management (p periodontal disease risk communication influences psychological variables that underpin adherence with periodontal instructions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Mother-child interactions in depressed children and children at high risk and low risk for future depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Laura J; Birmaher, Boris; Williamson, Douglas E; Silk, Jennifer S; Dahl, Ronald E; Axelson, David A; Ehmann, Mary; Ryan, Neal D

    2008-05-01

    To compare mother-child interactions and parenting styles in families of children with major depressive disorder, youths at high risk for depression, and healthy controls. Currently depressed (n = 43), high-risk (n = 28), and healthy control (n = 41) youths and their mothers engaged in a standardized videotaped problem-solving interaction. Measures of affect and behavior for both mothers and children were obtained, in addition to global measures of parenting. Depressed children demonstrated more negativity and less positivity in dyadic interactions than did children at high risk and control children. Mothers of depressed children were more disengaged than control mothers. Exploratory repeated-measures analyses in a subgroup of depressed children (n = 16) suggested mother-child interactions do not significantly change when children recover from depression. Children at high risk demonstrated less positivity in dyadic interactions than did controls. Mothers with a history of major depressive disorder and mothers with higher current depressive symptoms demonstrated patterns of disengagement and low control in interactions with children. Mother-child interactions in depressed youths are marked by maternal disengagement and low child positivity that may not improve when children recover. The bidirectional effects of maternal disengagement and low levels of child positivity may precede onset of major depressive disorder in children and serve as risk factors for recurrent depression in youths.

  18. A whole process quality control system for energy measuring instruments inspection based on IOT technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Bo; Liu, Li; Wang, Jiahan; Li, Xiran; Liu, Zhenbo; Li, Dewei; Wang, Jun; Liu, Lu; Wu, Jun; Xu, Tingting; Cui, He

    2017-10-01

    Electric energy measurement as a basic work, an accurate measurements play a vital role for the economic interests of both parties of power supply, the standardized management of the measurement laboratory at all levels is a direct factor that directly affects the fairness of measurement. Currently, the management of metering laboratories generally uses one-dimensional bar code as the recognition object, advances the testing process by manual management, most of the test data requires human input to generate reports. There are many problems and potential risks in this process: Data cannot be saved completely, cannot trace the status of inspection, the inspection process isn't completely controllable and so on. For the provincial metrology center's actual requirements of the whole process management for the performance test of the power measuring appliances, using of large-capacity RF tags as a process management information media, we developed a set of general measurement experiment management system, formulated a standardized full performance test process, improved the raw data recording mode of experimental process, developed a storehouse automatic inventory device, established a strict test sample transfer and storage system, ensured that all the raw data of the inspection can be traced back, achieved full life-cycle control of the sample, significantly improved the quality control level and the effectiveness of inspection work.

  19. Payload Safety: Risk and Characteristic-Based Control of Engineered Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou, Seraphin Chally; Saad, Maarouf

    2013-09-01

    In the last decade progress has been made to assist organizations that are developing payloads intended for flight on the International Space Station (ISS) and/or Space Shuttle. Collaboration programs for comprehensive risk assessment have been initiated between the U.S. and the European Union to generate requirements and data needed to comply with payloads safety and to perform risk assessment and controls guidance. Yet, substantial research gaps remain, as do challenges in the translation of these research findings to control for exposure to nanoscale material payloads, and the health effects. Since nanomaterial structures are different from traditional molecules, some standard material properties can change at size of 50nm or less. Changes in material properties at this scale challenge our understanding of hazards posed by nanomaterial payloads in the ISS realistic exposure conditions, and our ability to anticipate, evaluate, and control potential health issues, and safety. The research question addressed in this framework is: what kind of descriptors can be developed for nanomaterial payloads risks assessment? Methods proposed incorporate elements of characteristic- based risk an alysis: (1) to enable characterization of anthropogenic nanomaterials which can result in incidental from natural nanoparticles; and (2) to better understand safety attributes in terms of human health impacts from exposure to varying types of engineered nanomaterials.

  20. The four Es of problem gambling: a psychological measure of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockloff, Matthew J; Dyer, Victoria

    2006-01-01

    A focus group of Reno area Gamblers Anonymous members identified four psychological traits contributing to risk for problem gambling, including: Escape, Esteem, Excess and Excitement. A panel of four experts authored 240 Likert-type items to measure these traits. By design, none of the items explicitly referred to gambling activities. Study 1 narrowed the field of useful items by employing a quasi-experimental design which compared the answers of Reno area Gamblers Anonymous members (N = 39) to a control sample (N = 34). Study 2 submitted successful items, plus new items authored with the knowledge gained from Study 1, to validation in a random sample telephone survey across Queensland, Australia (N=2577). The final 40 item Four Es scale (4Es) was reliable (alpha=.90); predicted gambling problems as measured by the Canadian Problem Gambling Index of Severity (PGSI, Ferris & Wynne (2001). The Canadian Problem Gambling Index: Final Report: Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse); and distinguished problem gamblers from persons with alcohol abuse problems. The new scale can provide a basis for further study in harm minimization, treatment, and theory development.

  1. Measuring the systemic risk in the South African banking sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory M. Foggitt

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011 stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk. Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised. Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK of the South African (SA banking sector between 2001 and 2013. Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK. Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly. Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst

  2. Selection of controls in case-control studies on maternal medication use and risk of birth defects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.K.; de Walle, H.E.; Dequito, A.; van den Berg, P.B.; de Jong-van den Berg, L.T.

    BACKGROUND:: In case-control studies on teratogenic risks of maternal drug use during pregnancy, the use of normal or malformed controls may lead to recall-bias or selection bias. This can be avoided by using controls with a genetic disorder. However, researchers are hesitant to use these as

  3. Measuring strategic control in implicit learning: how and why?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Elisabeth

    2015-01-01

    Several methods have been developed for measuring the extent to which implicitly learned knowledge can be applied in a strategic, flexible manner. Examples include generation exclusion tasks in Serial Reaction Time (SRT) learning (Goschke, 1998; Destrebecqz and Cleeremans, 2001) and 2-grammar classification tasks in Artificial Grammar Learning (AGL; Dienes et al., 1995; Norman et al., 2011). Strategic control has traditionally been used as a criterion for determining whether acquired knowledge is conscious or unconscious, or which properties of knowledge are consciously available. In this paper I first summarize existing methods that have been developed for measuring strategic control in the SRT and AGL tasks. I then address some methodological and theoretical questions. Methodological questions concern choice of task, whether the measurement reflects inhibitory control or task switching, and whether or not strategic control should be measured on a trial-by-trial basis. Theoretical questions concern the rationale for including measurement of strategic control, what form of knowledge is strategically controlled, and how strategic control can be combined with subjective awareness measures.

  4. Measuring strategic control in implicit learning: How and why?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabeth eNorman

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Several methods have been developed for measuring the extent to which implicitly learned knowledge can be applied in a strategic, flexible manner. Examples include generation exclusion tasks in SRT learning (Destrebecqz & Cleeremans, 2001; Goschke, 1998 and 2-grammar classification tasks in AGL (Dienes, Altmann, Kwan, & Goode, 1995; Norman, Price, & Jones, 2011. Strategic control has traditionally been used as a criterion for determining whether acquired knowledge is conscious or unconscious, or which properties of knowledge is consciously available. In this paper I first summarize existing methods that have been developed for measuring strategic control in the SRT and AGL tasks. I then address some methodologial and theoretical questions. Methodological questions concern choice of task, whether the measurement reflects inhibitory control or task switching, and whether or not strategic control should be measured on a trial-by-trial basis. Theoretical questions concern the rationale for including measurement of strategic control, what form of knowledge is strategically controlled, and how strategic control can be combined with subjective awareness measures.

  5. Cumulative sum quality control for calibrated breast density measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heine, John J.; Cao Ke; Beam, Craig

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Breast density is a significant breast cancer risk factor. Although various methods are used to estimate breast density, there is no standard measurement for this important factor. The authors are developing a breast density standardization method for use in full field digital mammography (FFDM). The approach calibrates for interpatient acquisition technique differences. The calibration produces a normalized breast density pixel value scale. The method relies on first generating a baseline (BL) calibration dataset, which required extensive phantom imaging. Standardizing prospective mammograms with calibration data generated in the past could introduce unanticipated error in the standardized output if the calibration dataset is no longer valid. Methods: Sample points from the BL calibration dataset were imaged approximately biweekly over an extended timeframe. These serial samples were used to evaluate the BL dataset reproducibility and quantify the serial calibration accuracy. The cumulative sum (Cusum) quality control method was used to evaluate the serial sampling. Results: There is considerable drift in the serial sample points from the BL calibration dataset that is x-ray beam dependent. Systematic deviation from the BL dataset caused significant calibration errors. This system drift was not captured with routine system quality control measures. Cusum analysis indicated that the drift is a sign of system wear and eventual x-ray tube failure. Conclusions: The BL calibration dataset must be monitored and periodically updated, when necessary, to account for sustained system variations to maintain the calibration accuracy.

  6. Cumulative sum quality control for calibrated breast density measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heine, John J.; Cao Ke; Beam, Craig [Cancer Prevention and Control Division, Moffitt Cancer Center, 12902 Magnolia Drive, Tampa, Florida 33612 (United States); Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, 1603 W. Taylor St., Chicago, Illinois 60612 (United States)

    2009-12-15

    Purpose: Breast density is a significant breast cancer risk factor. Although various methods are used to estimate breast density, there is no standard measurement for this important factor. The authors are developing a breast density standardization method for use in full field digital mammography (FFDM). The approach calibrates for interpatient acquisition technique differences. The calibration produces a normalized breast density pixel value scale. The method relies on first generating a baseline (BL) calibration dataset, which required extensive phantom imaging. Standardizing prospective mammograms with calibration data generated in the past could introduce unanticipated error in the standardized output if the calibration dataset is no longer valid. Methods: Sample points from the BL calibration dataset were imaged approximately biweekly over an extended timeframe. These serial samples were used to evaluate the BL dataset reproducibility and quantify the serial calibration accuracy. The cumulative sum (Cusum) quality control method was used to evaluate the serial sampling. Results: There is considerable drift in the serial sample points from the BL calibration dataset that is x-ray beam dependent. Systematic deviation from the BL dataset caused significant calibration errors. This system drift was not captured with routine system quality control measures. Cusum analysis indicated that the drift is a sign of system wear and eventual x-ray tube failure. Conclusions: The BL calibration dataset must be monitored and periodically updated, when necessary, to account for sustained system variations to maintain the calibration accuracy.

  7. The application of the PSA important measures in risk-informed administrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yan; Fu Zhiwei; Jing Jianping; Zhang Chunming; Liu Hongquan

    2012-01-01

    The importance measures analyses of PSA are main approaches during the risk-informed administrations. This paper reviews kinds of importance measures, mainly researches the meaning of the FV and RAW importance measures, and introduces the applications of importance measures in the in-service testing and categorization of SSCs, finally, discusses the limitations of the importance measures analyses. (authors)

  8. Human chorionic gonadotropin, angiogenic factors, and preeclampsia risk: a nested case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asvold, Bjørn O; Eskild, Anne; Vatten, Lars J

    2014-05-01

    To study whether human chorionic gonadotropin concentrations during pregnancy or combinations of human chorionic gonadotropin and other angiogenic factors, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 and placental growth factor (PlGF), are associated with preeclampsia risk. Nested case-control study. Population cohort of pregnant women. A total of 121 cases of preterm (cases of term preeclampsia (≥37 weeks of gestation) and 356 women without preeclampsia (controls). Women with preeclampsia were identified by linkage to the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. Concentrations of human chorionic gonadotropin, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 and PlGF were measured in maternal serum samples collected in each trimester of pregnancy. Odds ratios of preterm and term preeclampsia. High human chorionic gonadotropin concentrations (highest quartile) in the first trimester were associated with reduced risk for preterm preeclampsia (OR 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-0.9), compared with low human chorionic gonadotropin (lowest quartile), whereas high human chorionic gonadotropin concentrations in the second trimester were associated with increased risk for preterm preeclampsia (OR 4.0, 95% CI 1.8-8.9). High human chorionic gonadotropin concentrations in the third trimester were associated with increased risk for term preeclampsia (OR 4.8, 95% CI 1.8-13.3). Concentrations of human chorionic gonadotropin above the median value combined with PlGF below the median in the second trimester were associated with very high risk for preterm preeclampsia (OR 36.9, 95% CI 8.2-165.8). The results suggest an important role of human chorionic gonadotropin in the pathophysiological processes that lead to preeclampsia. The combined association of human chorionic gonadotropin and PlGF indicates a possible synergism between underlying biological pathways. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  9. A measurement model of perinatal stressors: identifying risk for postnatal emotional distress in mothers of high-risk infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMier, R L; Hynan, M T; Hatfield, R F; Varner, M W; Harris, H B; Manniello, R L

    2000-01-01

    A measurement model of perinatal stressors was first evaluated for reliability and then used to identify risk factors for postnatal emotional distress in high-risk mothers. In Study 1, six measures (gestational age of the baby, birthweight, length of the baby's hospitalization, a postnatal complications rating for the infant, and Apgar scores at 1 and 5 min) were obtained from chart reviews of preterm births at two different hospitals. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that the six measures could be accounted for by three factors: (a) Infant Maturity, (b) Apgar Ratings, and (c) Complications. In Study 2, a modified measurement model indicated that Infant Maturity and Complications were significant predictors of postnatal emotional distress in an additional sample of mothers. This measurement model may also be useful in predicting (a) other measures of psychological distress in parents, and (b) measures of cognitive and motor development in infants.

  10. Real-time measurement and control at Jet. Experiment Control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felton, R.; Zabeo, L.; Sartori, F.; Piccolo, F.; Farthing, J.; Budd, T.; Dorling, S.; McCullen, P.; Harling, J.; Dalley, S.; Goodyear, A.; Stephen, A.; Card, P.; Bright, M.; Lucock, R.; Jones, E.; Griph, S.; Hogben, C.; Beldishevski, M.; Buckley, M.; Davis, J.; Young, I.; Hemming, O.; Wheatley, M.; Heesterman, P.; Lloyd, G.; Walters, M.; Bridge, R.; Leggate, H.; Howell, D.; Zastrow, K.D.; Giroud, C.; Coffey, I.; Hawkes, N.; Stamp, M.; Barnsley, R.; Edlington, T.; Guenther, K.; Gowers, C.; Popovichef, S.; Huber, A.; Ingesson, C.; Joffrin, E.; Mazon, D.; Moreau, D.; Murari, A.; Riva, M.; Barana, O.; Bolzonella, T.; Valisa, M.; Innocente, P.; Zerbini, M.; Bosak, K.; Blum, J.; Vitale, E.; Crisanti, F.; La Luna, E. de; Sanchez, J.

    2004-01-01

    Over the past few ears, the preparation of ITER-relevant plasma scenarios has been the main focus experimental activity on tokamaks. The development of integrated, simultaneous, real-time controls of plasma shape, current, pressure, temperature, radiation, neutron profiles, and also impurities, ELMs (edge localized modes) and MHD are now seen to be essential for further development of quasi-steady state conditions with feedback, or the stabilisation of transient phenomena with event-driven actions. For this thrust, the EFDA JET Real Time Project has developed a set of real-time plasma measurements, experiment control, and communication facilities. The Plasma Diagnostics used for real-time experiments are Far Infra Red interferometry, polarimetry, visible, UV and X-ray spectroscopy, LIDAR, bolometry, neutron and magnetics. Further analysis systems produce integrated results such as temperature profiles on geometry derived from MHD equilibrium solutions. The Actuators include toroidal, poloidal and divertor coils, gas and pellet fuelling, neutral beam injection, radiofrequency (ICRH) waves and microwaves (LH). The Heating/Fuelling Operators can either define a power or gas request waveform or select the real-time instantaneous power/gas request from the Real Time Experiment Central Control (RTCC) system. The Real Time Experiment Control system provides both a high-level, control-programming environment and interlocks with the actuators. A MATLAB facility is being developed for the development of more complex controllers. The plasma measurement, controller and plant control systems communicate in ATM network. The EFDA Real Time project is essential groundwork for future reactors such as ITER. It involves many staff from several institutions. The facility is now frequently used in experiments. (authors)

  11. Awareness of Measures for Reducing Health Risk of Using Low-Quality Irrigation Water in Morogoro, Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mayilla, Winfrida; Magayane, Flavianus; Konradsen, Flemming

    2016-01-01

    The study examined the awareness of farmers, vegetable traders, and consumers on the health risk reduction measures when using low-quality water in irrigated agriculture, and identifies farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of the health risk reduction measures. Data collection methods includ...... that health education targeting at specific exposed group and their social-demographic characteristics is the potential measure in raising awareness of the potential health risk reduction measures when using low-quality irrigation water in irrigated agriculture.......The study examined the awareness of farmers, vegetable traders, and consumers on the health risk reduction measures when using low-quality water in irrigated agriculture, and identifies farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of the health risk reduction measures. Data collection methods included...... a questionnaire survey with 60 farmers, 60 vegetable traders, and 70 consumers and four focus group discussions. General results show a low level of awareness of the health risk reduction measures in using low-quality irrigation water in all respondents’ categories. However, health protection measures...

  12. Risk assessment of main control board fire using fire dynamics simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il, E-mail: dikang@kaeri.re.kr [KAERI, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Yoo, Seong Yeon [Chungnam National University, 79, Daehagro, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a main control board (MCB) fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios. • Fire simulations using fire dynamics simulator (FDS) were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. • Non-propagating and propagating fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations. • The current study indicates that the quantification of the MCB fire risk should address the propagating fire and non-propagating fire scenarios if the MCB has no internal barriers between the panels. - Abstract: This paper presents the process and results of a risk assessment for a main control board (MCB) fire using fire dynamics simulator (FDS). A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a MCB fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios, and fire simulations using FDS were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. As a reference NPP for this study, Hanul unit 3 in Korea was selected and its core damage frequency (CDF) owing to the MCB fire was quantified. Two types of fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations: non-propagating fire scenarios occurring within a single MCB panel and propagating fire scenarios spreading from one control panel to the adjacent panels. Further, the fire scenarios were classified into fires with and without a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVACS). The fire simulation results showed that the major factor causing the MCR evacuation was the optical density irrelevant to the availability of the HVACS. The risk assessment results showed that the abandonment fire scenario risk was less than the non-abandonment fire scenario risk and the propagating fire scenario risk was greater than the non-propagating fire scenario risk.

  13. Risk assessment of main control board fire using fire dynamics simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol; Yoo, Seong Yeon

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a main control board (MCB) fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios. • Fire simulations using fire dynamics simulator (FDS) were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. • Non-propagating and propagating fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations. • The current study indicates that the quantification of the MCB fire risk should address the propagating fire and non-propagating fire scenarios if the MCB has no internal barriers between the panels. - Abstract: This paper presents the process and results of a risk assessment for a main control board (MCB) fire using fire dynamics simulator (FDS). A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a MCB fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios, and fire simulations using FDS were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. As a reference NPP for this study, Hanul unit 3 in Korea was selected and its core damage frequency (CDF) owing to the MCB fire was quantified. Two types of fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations: non-propagating fire scenarios occurring within a single MCB panel and propagating fire scenarios spreading from one control panel to the adjacent panels. Further, the fire scenarios were classified into fires with and without a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVACS). The fire simulation results showed that the major factor causing the MCR evacuation was the optical density irrelevant to the availability of the HVACS. The risk assessment results showed that the abandonment fire scenario risk was less than the non-abandonment fire scenario risk and the propagating fire scenario risk was greater than the non-propagating fire scenario risk

  14. Measuring the Balance Control System – Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitka Jančová

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Past studies of postural control during standing have employed wide range of procedures including the outcome measures use to quantify postural control, the duration of the sample collected, sampling frequency and methods for data processing. Due to these differences there remains little, if any, common grounds for comparisons between studies to establish a concrete understanding of the features and bouns which characterize normal healthy postural control. This article deals with terms such as reliability and repeatability of stabilometric measurements, stabilometric data quantification and analysis. To clear up those terms is suggested, by the author of this paper, very important. The stabilometric measurements remain, nevertheless, different when dealing with aging adults. Though, we notes some alterations of the aging systems, this article is not entirely dedicated to the seniors population. Measurements of COP and technical notes remain the main axis of present paper.

  15. Participatory ergonomics to reduce exposure to psychosocial and physical risk factors for low back pain and neck pain: results of a cluster randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driessen, Maurice T; Proper, Karin I; Anema, Johannes R; Knol, Dirk L; Bongers, Paulien M; van der Beek, Allard J

    2011-09-01

    This study investigated the effectiveness of the Stay@Work participatory ergonomics programme to reduce workers' exposure to psychosocial and physical risk factors. 37 departments (n=3047 workers) from four Dutch companies participated in this cluster randomised controlled trial; 19 (n=1472 workers) were randomised to an intervention group (participatory ergonomics) and 18 (n=1575 workers) to a control group (no participatory ergonomics). During a 6 h meeting guided by an ergonomist, working groups devised ergonomic measures to reduce psychosocial and physical workload and implemented them within 3months in their departments. Data on psychosocial and physical risk factors for low back pain and neck pain were collected at baseline and after 6 months. Psychosocial risk factors were measured using the Job Content Questionnaire and physical risk factors using the Dutch Musculoskeletal Questionnaire. Intervention effects were studied using multilevel analysis. Intervention group workers significantly increased on decision latitude (0.29 points; 95% CI 0.07 to 0.52) and decision authority (0.16 points; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.28) compared to control workers. However, exposure to awkward trunk working postures significantly increased in the intervention group (OR 1.86; 95% CI 1.15 to 3.01) compared to the control group. No significant differences between the intervention and control group were found for the remaining risk factors. After 6months, loss to follow-up was 35% in the intervention group and 29% in the control group. Participatory ergonomics was not effective in reducing exposure to psychosocial and physical risk factors for low back pain and neck pain among a large group of workers. ISRCTN27472278.

  16. Max-Plus Stochastic Control and Risk-Sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, Wendell H.; Kaise, Hidehiro; Sheu, Shuenn-Jyi

    2010-01-01

    In the Maslov idempotent probability calculus, expectations of random variables are defined so as to be linear with respect to max-plus addition and scalar multiplication. This paper considers control problems in which the objective is to minimize the max-plus expectation of some max-plus additive running cost. Such problems arise naturally as limits of some types of risk sensitive stochastic control problems. The value function is a viscosity solution to a quasivariational inequality (QVI) of dynamic programming. Equivalence of this QVI to a nonlinear parabolic PDE with discontinuous Hamiltonian is used to prove a comparison theorem for viscosity sub- and super-solutions. An example from mathematical finance is given, and an application in nonlinear H-infinity control is sketched.

  17. Colon cancer risk and different HRT formulations: a case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thai Do

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most studies have found no increased risk of colon cancer associated with hormone replacement therapy (HRT, or even a decreased risk. But information about the effects of different HRT preparations is lacking. Methods A case-control study was performed within Germany in collaboration with regional cancer registries and tumor centers. Up to 5 controls were matched to each case of colon cancer. Conditional logistic regression analysis was applied to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI. Stratified analyses were performed to get an impression of the risk associated with different estrogens and progestins. Results A total of 354 cases of colon cancer were compared with 1422 matched controls. The adjusted overall risk estimate for colon cancer (ColC associated with ever-use of HRT was 0.97 (0.71 – 1.32. No clinically relevant trends for ColC risk were observed with increasing duration of HRT use, or increasing time since first or last HRT use in aggregate. Whereas the overall risk estimates were stable, the numbers in many of the sub-analyses of HRT preparation groups (estrogens and progestins were too small for conclusions. Nevertheless, if the ColC risk estimates are taken at face value, most seemed to be reduced compared with never-use of HRT, but did not vary much across HRT formulation subgroups. In particular, no substantial difference in ColC risk was observed between HRT-containing conjugated equine estrogens (CEE or medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA and other formulations more common in Europe. Conclusion Ever-use of HRT was not associated with an increased risk of colon cancer. In contrary, most risk estimates pointed non-significantly toward a lower ColC risk in HRT ever user. They did not vary markedly among different HRT formulations (estrogens, progestins. However, the small numbers and the overlapping nature of the subgroups suggest cautious interpretation.

  18. Survey for the advertising effectiveness measurement of the website 'risk information navigator' and the risk message materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okawa, Masato; Arai, Yuki; Suenaga, Minoru

    2005-08-01

    Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (hereinafter referred to as JNC). The Risk Communication Study Team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with the local communities. Several communication tools such as poster panels, slide materials, videos, website contents and newsletters were developed as part of its risk communication activities. This paper describes the survey of the internet users in prefectures where nuclear power stations are located, for the advertising effectiveness measurement of nuclear risk information provided on the web site 'Risk Information Navigator' (http://ricotti.jnc.go.jp/risknavi/) and the risk message materials jointly produced by Tokai village's people and JNC. (author)

  19. Uptake of Rabies Control Measures by Dog Owners in Flores Island, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wera, Ewaldus; Mourits, Monique C. M.; Hogeveen, Henk

    2015-01-01

    Background Rabies has been a serious public health threat in Flores Island, Indonesia since it was introduced in 1997. To control the disease, annual dog vaccination campaigns have been implemented to vaccinate all dogs free of charge. Nevertheless, the uptake rate of the vaccination campaigns has been low. The objective of this paper is to identify risk factors associated with the uptake of rabies control measures by individual dog owners in Flores Island. Methodology/principal findings A total of 450 dog owners from 44 randomly selected villages in the Sikka and Manggarai regencies were interviewed regarding their socio-demographic factors, knowledge of rabies, and their uptake of rabies control measures. The majority of dog owners surveyed (>90%) knew that rabies is a fatal disease and that it can be prevented. Moreover, 68% of the dog owners had a high level of knowledge about available rabies control measures. Fifty-two percent of the dog owners had had at least one of their dogs vaccinated during the 2012 vaccination campaign. Vaccination uptake was significantly higher for dog owners who resided in Sikka, kept female dogs for breeding, had an income of more than one million Rupiah, and had easy access to their village. The most important reasons not to join the vaccination campaign were lack of information about the vaccination campaign schedule (40%) and difficulty to catch the dog during the vaccination campaign (37%). Conclusions/significance Dog owners in Flores Island had a high level of knowledge of rabies and its control, but this was not associated with uptake of the 2012 vaccination campaign. Geographical accessibility was one of the important factors influencing the vaccination uptake among dog owners. Targeted distribution of information on vaccination schedules and methods to catch and restrain dogs in those villages with poor accessibility may increase vaccination uptake in the future. PMID:25782019

  20. Risk Factors Profile of Shoulder Dystocia in Oman: A Case Control Study

    OpenAIRE

    Maha M. Al-Khaduri; Rania Mohammed Abudraz; Sayed G. Rizvi; Yahya M. Al-Fars