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Sample records for risk consistent estimate

  1. Consistency of extreme flood estimation approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, Guido; Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

    2017-04-01

    Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used for the planning of infrastructure as well as for determining the dimensions of flood protection measures. There are several well-established methodical procedures to estimate low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve, the "true value" of an extreme flood being not observable. Anyway, a detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In this study, the following three different approaches for estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical approach (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical approach based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic approach (physically based PMF estimation). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments. The results and some intermediate variables are used for assessing potential strengths and weaknesses of each method, as well as for evaluating the consistency of these methods.

  2. Consistent Estimation of Partition Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús E. García

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Partition Markov Model characterizes the process by a partition L of the state space, where the elements in each part of L share the same transition probability to an arbitrary element in the alphabet. This model aims to answer the following questions: what is the minimal number of parameters needed to specify a Markov chain and how to estimate these parameters. In order to answer these questions, we build a consistent strategy for model selection which consist of: giving a size n realization of the process, finding a model within the Partition Markov class, with a minimal number of parts to represent the process law. From the strategy, we derive a measure that establishes a metric in the state space. In addition, we show that if the law of the process is Markovian, then, eventually, when n goes to infinity, L will be retrieved. We show an application to model internet navigation patterns.

  3. Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

  4. Consistency of Trend Break Point Estimator with Underspecified Break Number

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjing Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the consistency of trend break point estimators when the number of breaks is underspecified. The consistency of break point estimators in a simple location model with level shifts has been well documented by researchers under various settings, including extensions such as allowing a time trend in the model. Despite the consistency of break point estimators of level shifts, there are few papers on the consistency of trend shift break point estimators in the presence of an underspecified break number. The simulation study and asymptotic analysis in this paper show that the trend shift break point estimator does not converge to the true break points when the break number is underspecified. In the case of two trend shifts, the inconsistency problem worsens if the magnitudes of the breaks are similar and the breaks are either both positive or both negative. The limiting distribution for the trend break point estimator is developed and closely approximates the finite sample performance.

  5. Consistent Estimation of Pricing Kernels from Noisy Price Data

    OpenAIRE

    Vladislav Kargin

    2003-01-01

    If pricing kernels are assumed non-negative then the inverse problem of finding the pricing kernel is well-posed. The constrained least squares method provides a consistent estimate of the pricing kernel. When the data are limited, a new method is suggested: relaxed maximization of the relative entropy. This estimator is also consistent. Keywords: $\\epsilon$-entropy, non-parametric estimation, pricing kernel, inverse problems.

  6. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schull, W.J.; Texas Univ., Houston, TX

    1992-01-01

    Estimation of the risk of cancer following exposure to ionizing radiation remains largely empirical, and models used to adduce risk incorporate few, if any, of the advances in molecular biology of a past decade or so. These facts compromise the estimation risk where the epidemiological data are weakest, namely, at low doses and dose rates. Without a better understanding of the molecular and cellular events ionizing radiation initiates or promotes, it seems unlikely that this situation will improve. Nor will the situation improve without further attention to the identification and quantitative estimation of the effects of those host and environmental factors that enhance or attenuate risk. (author)

  7. Bootstrap-Based Inference for Cube Root Consistent Estimators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cattaneo, Matias D.; Jansson, Michael; Nagasawa, Kenichi

    This note proposes a consistent bootstrap-based distributional approximation for cube root consistent estimators such as the maximum score estimator of Manski (1975) and the isotonic density estimator of Grenander (1956). In both cases, the standard nonparametric bootstrap is known...... to be inconsistent. Our method restores consistency of the nonparametric bootstrap by altering the shape of the criterion function defining the estimator whose distribution we seek to approximate. This modification leads to a generic and easy-to-implement resampling method for inference that is conceptually distinct...... from other available distributional approximations based on some form of modified bootstrap. We offer simulation evidence showcasing the performance of our inference method in finite samples. An extension of our methodology to general M-estimation problems is also discussed....

  8. Some new classes of consistent risk measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Dhaene, J.L.M.; Tang, Q.

    2004-01-01

    Many types of insurance premium principles and/or risk measures can be characterized by means of a set of axioms, which in many cases are rather arbitrarily chosen and not always in accordance with economic reality. In the present paper we generalize Yaari¿s risk measure by relaxing his axioms. In

  9. Quantifying IT estimation risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.

    2009-01-01

    A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be

  10. The cluster bootstrap consistency in generalized estimating equations

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang

    2013-03-01

    The cluster bootstrap resamples clusters or subjects instead of individual observations in order to preserve the dependence within each cluster or subject. In this paper, we provide a theoretical justification of using the cluster bootstrap for the inferences of the generalized estimating equations (GEE) for clustered/longitudinal data. Under the general exchangeable bootstrap weights, we show that the cluster bootstrap yields a consistent approximation of the distribution of the regression estimate, and a consistent approximation of the confidence sets. We also show that a computationally more efficient one-step version of the cluster bootstrap provides asymptotically equivalent inference. © 2012.

  11. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  12. SIMPLE ESTIMATOR AND CONSISTENT STRONGLY OF STABLE DISTRIBUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cira E. Guevara Otiniano

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Stable distributions are extensively used to analyze earnings of financial assets, such as exchange rates and stock prices assets. In this paper we propose a simple and strongly consistent estimator for the scale parameter of a symmetric stable L´evy distribution. The advantage of this estimator is that your computational time is minimum thus it can be used to initialize intensive computational procedure such as maximum likelihood. With random samples of sized n we tested the efficacy of these estimators by Monte Carlo method. We also included applications for three data sets.

  13. A New Heteroskedastic Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator using Deviance Measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuzhat Aftab

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this article we propose a new heteroskedastic consistent covariance matrix estimator, HC6, based on deviance measure. We have studied and compared the finite sample behavior of the new test and compared it with other this kind of estimators, HC1, HC3 and HC4m, which are used in case of leverage observations. Simulation study is conducted to study the effect of various levels of heteroskedasticity on the size and power of quasi-t test with HC estimators. Results show that the test statistic based on our new suggested estimator has better asymptotic approximation and less size distortion as compared to other estimators for small sample sizes when high level ofheteroskedasticity is present in data.

  14. Short-Cut Estimators of Criterion-Referenced Test Consistency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, James Dean

    1990-01-01

    Presents simplified methods for deriving estimates of the consistency of criterion-referenced, English-as-a-Second-Language tests, including (1) the threshold loss agreement approach using agreement or kappa coefficients, (2) the squared-error loss agreement approach using the phi(lambda) dependability approach, and (3) the domain score…

  15. Consistency of the Takens estimator for the correlation dimension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borovkova, S.; Burton, Robert; Dehling, H.

    Motivated by the problem of estimating the fractal dimension of a strange attractor, we prove weak consistency of U-statistics for stationary ergodic and mixing sequences when the kernel function is unbounded, extending by this earlier results of Aaronson, Burton, Dehling, Gilat, Hill and Weiss. We

  16. A New Bias Corrected Version of Heteroscedasticity Consistent Covariance Estimator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Munir Ahmed

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the presence of heteroscedasticity, different available flavours of the heteroscedasticity consistent covariance estimator (HCCME are used. However, the available literature shows that these estimators can be considerably biased in small samples. Cribari–Neto et al. (2000 introduce a bias adjustment mechanism and give the modified White estimator that becomes almost bias-free even in small samples. Extending these results, Cribari-Neto and Galvão (2003 present a similar bias adjustment mechanism that can be applied to a wide class of HCCMEs’. In the present article, we follow the same mechanism as proposed by Cribari-Neto and Galvão to give bias-correction version of HCCME but we use adaptive HCCME rather than the conventional HCCME. The Monte Carlo study is used to evaluate the performance of our proposed estimators.

  17. Dictionary-based fiber orientation estimation with improved spatial consistency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Chuyang; Prince, Jerry L

    2018-02-01

    Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) has enabled in vivo investigation of white matter tracts. Fiber orientation (FO) estimation is a key step in tract reconstruction and has been a popular research topic in dMRI analysis. In particular, the sparsity assumption has been used in conjunction with a dictionary-based framework to achieve reliable FO estimation with a reduced number of gradient directions. Because image noise can have a deleterious effect on the accuracy of FO estimation, previous works have incorporated spatial consistency of FOs in the dictionary-based framework to improve the estimation. However, because FOs are only indirectly determined from the mixture fractions of dictionary atoms and not modeled as variables in the objective function, these methods do not incorporate FO smoothness directly, and their ability to produce smooth FOs could be limited. In this work, we propose an improvement to Fiber Orientation Reconstruction using Neighborhood Information (FORNI), which we call FORNI+; this method estimates FOs in a dictionary-based framework where FO smoothness is better enforced than in FORNI alone. We describe an objective function that explicitly models the actual FOs and the mixture fractions of dictionary atoms. Specifically, it consists of data fidelity between the observed signals and the signals represented by the dictionary, pairwise FO dissimilarity that encourages FO smoothness, and weighted ℓ 1 -norm terms that ensure the consistency between the actual FOs and the FO configuration suggested by the dictionary representation. The FOs and mixture fractions are then jointly estimated by minimizing the objective function using an iterative alternating optimization strategy. FORNI+ was evaluated on a simulation phantom, a physical phantom, and real brain dMRI data. In particular, in the real brain dMRI experiment, we have qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated the reproducibility of the proposed method. Results demonstrate that

  18. Risk estimation using probability machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  19. Bootstrap consistency for general semiparametric M-estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang

    2010-10-01

    Consider M-estimation in a semiparametric model that is characterized by a Euclidean parameter of interest and an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter. As a general purpose approach to statistical inferences, the bootstrap has found wide applications in semiparametric M-estimation and, because of its simplicity, provides an attractive alternative to the inference approach based on the asymptotic distribution theory. The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical justifications for the use of bootstrap as a semiparametric inferential tool. We show that, under general conditions, the bootstrap is asymptotically consistent in estimating the distribution of the M-estimate of Euclidean parameter; that is, the bootstrap distribution asymptotically imitates the distribution of the M-estimate. We also show that the bootstrap confidence set has the asymptotically correct coverage probability. These general onclusions hold, in particular, when the nuisance parameter is not estimable at root-n rate, and apply to a broad class of bootstrap methods with exchangeable ootstrap weights. This paper provides a first general theoretical study of the bootstrap in semiparametric models. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

  20. Consistent estimation of Gibbs energy using component contributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elad Noor

    Full Text Available Standard Gibbs energies of reactions are increasingly being used in metabolic modeling for applying thermodynamic constraints on reaction rates, metabolite concentrations and kinetic parameters. The increasing scope and diversity of metabolic models has led scientists to look for genome-scale solutions that can estimate the standard Gibbs energy of all the reactions in metabolism. Group contribution methods greatly increase coverage, albeit at the price of decreased precision. We present here a way to combine the estimations of group contribution with the more accurate reactant contributions by decomposing each reaction into two parts and applying one of the methods on each of them. This method gives priority to the reactant contributions over group contributions while guaranteeing that all estimations will be consistent, i.e. will not violate the first law of thermodynamics. We show that there is a significant increase in the accuracy of our estimations compared to standard group contribution. Specifically, our cross-validation results show an 80% reduction in the median absolute residual for reactions that can be derived by reactant contributions only. We provide the full framework and source code for deriving estimates of standard reaction Gibbs energy, as well as confidence intervals, and believe this will facilitate the wide use of thermodynamic data for a better understanding of metabolism.

  1. Estimating Risk Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Aswath Damodaran

    1999-01-01

    Over the last three decades, the capital asset pricing model has occupied a central and often controversial place in most corporate finance analysts’ tool chests. The model requires three inputs to compute expected returns – a riskfree rate, a beta for an asset and an expected risk premium for the market portfolio (over and above the riskfree rate). Betas are estimated, by most practitioners, by regressing returns on an asset against a stock index, with the slope of the regression being the b...

  2. MAP estimators and their consistency in Bayesian nonparametric inverse problems

    KAUST Repository

    Dashti, M.

    2013-09-01

    We consider the inverse problem of estimating an unknown function u from noisy measurements y of a known, possibly nonlinear, map applied to u. We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem and work in a setting where the prior measure is specified as a Gaussian random field μ0. We work under a natural set of conditions on the likelihood which implies the existence of a well-posed posterior measure, μy. Under these conditions, we show that the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator is well defined as the minimizer of an Onsager-Machlup functional defined on the Cameron-Martin space of the prior; thus, we link a problem in probability with a problem in the calculus of variations. We then consider the case where the observational noise vanishes and establish a form of Bayesian posterior consistency for the MAP estimator. We also prove a similar result for the case where the observation of can be repeated as many times as desired with independent identically distributed noise. The theory is illustrated with examples from an inverse problem for the Navier-Stokes equation, motivated by problems arising in weather forecasting, and from the theory of conditioned diffusions, motivated by problems arising in molecular dynamics. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  3. MAP estimators and their consistency in Bayesian nonparametric inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dashti, M; Law, K J H; Stuart, A M; Voss, J

    2013-01-01

    We consider the inverse problem of estimating an unknown function u from noisy measurements y of a known, possibly nonlinear, map G applied to u. We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem and work in a setting where the prior measure is specified as a Gaussian random field μ 0 . We work under a natural set of conditions on the likelihood which implies the existence of a well-posed posterior measure, μ y . Under these conditions, we show that the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator is well defined as the minimizer of an Onsager–Machlup functional defined on the Cameron–Martin space of the prior; thus, we link a problem in probability with a problem in the calculus of variations. We then consider the case where the observational noise vanishes and establish a form of Bayesian posterior consistency for the MAP estimator. We also prove a similar result for the case where the observation of G(u) can be repeated as many times as desired with independent identically distributed noise. The theory is illustrated with examples from an inverse problem for the Navier–Stokes equation, motivated by problems arising in weather forecasting, and from the theory of conditioned diffusions, motivated by problems arising in molecular dynamics. (paper)

  4. Consistent Parameter and Transfer Function Estimation using Context Free Grammars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Daniel; Herrnegger, Mathew; Schulz, Karsten

    2017-04-01

    This contribution presents a method for the inference of transfer functions for rainfall-runoff models. Here, transfer functions are defined as parametrized (functional) relationships between a set of spatial predictors (e.g. elevation, slope or soil texture) and model parameters. They are ultimately used for estimation of consistent, spatially distributed model parameters from a limited amount of lumped global parameters. Additionally, they provide a straightforward method for parameter extrapolation from one set of basins to another and can even be used to derive parameterizations for multi-scale models [see: Samaniego et al., 2010]. Yet, currently an actual knowledge of the transfer functions is often implicitly assumed. As a matter of fact, for most cases these hypothesized transfer functions can rarely be measured and often remain unknown. Therefore, this contribution presents a general method for the concurrent estimation of the structure of transfer functions and their respective (global) parameters. Note, that by consequence an estimation of the distributed parameters of the rainfall-runoff model is also undertaken. The method combines two steps to achieve this. The first generates different possible transfer functions. The second then estimates the respective global transfer function parameters. The structural estimation of the transfer functions is based on the context free grammar concept. Chomsky first introduced context free grammars in linguistics [Chomsky, 1956]. Since then, they have been widely applied in computer science. But, to the knowledge of the authors, they have so far not been used in hydrology. Therefore, the contribution gives an introduction to context free grammars and shows how they can be constructed and used for the structural inference of transfer functions. This is enabled by new methods from evolutionary computation, such as grammatical evolution [O'Neill, 2001], which make it possible to exploit the constructed grammar as a

  5. Protective Factors, Risk Indicators, and Contraceptive Consistency Among College Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Leslie F; Sieving, Renee E; Pettingell, Sandra L; Hellerstedt, Wendy L; McMorris, Barbara J; Bearinger, Linda H

    2016-01-01

    To explore risk and protective factors associated with consistent contraceptive use among emerging adult female college students and whether effects of risk indicators were moderated by protective factors. Secondary analysis of National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health Wave III data. Data collected through in-home interviews in 2001 and 2002. National sample of 18- to 25-year-old women (N = 842) attending 4-year colleges. We examined relationships between protective factors, risk indicators, and consistent contraceptive use. Consistent contraceptive use was defined as use all of the time during intercourse in the past 12 months. Protective factors included external supports of parental closeness and relationship with caring nonparental adult and internal assets of self-esteem, confidence, independence, and life satisfaction. Risk indicators included heavy episodic drinking, marijuana use, and depression symptoms. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate relationships between protective factors and consistent contraceptive use and between risk indicators and contraceptive use. Self-esteem, confidence, independence, and life satisfaction were significantly associated with more consistent contraceptive use. In a final model including all internal assets, life satisfaction was significantly related to consistent contraceptive use. Marijuana use and depression symptoms were significantly associated with less consistent use. With one exception, protective factors did not moderate relationships between risk indicators and consistent use. Based on our findings, we suggest that risk and protective factors may have largely independent influences on consistent contraceptive use among college women. A focus on risk and protective factors may improve contraceptive use rates and thereby reduce unintended pregnancy among college students. Copyright © 2016 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses. Published

  6. Risk estimates for bone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlenker, R.A.

    1982-01-01

    Bone sarcoma data for 226 228 Ra and 224 Ra are analyzed within the dosage ranges where the observed risk is zero. The uncertainty in the risk may be effectively illustrated by using pairs of functions based on a statistically-based measure of confidence. For radiation protection, the appropriate measure of risk is cumulative incidence in the presence of competing risks, as this takes into account the reduction of radiation effects brought about by natural mortality

  7. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, P.B.

    1981-11-01

    This report outlines the major publications between 1976 and 1981 that have contributed to the evolution of the way in which radiation risks (cancer and hereditary birth defects) are assessed. The publications include the latest findings of the UNSCEAR, BEIR and ICRP committees, epidemiological studies at low doses and new assessments of the doses received by the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report is not a detailed critique of those publications, but it highlights the impact of their findings on risk assessment

  8. Ecological risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartell, S.M.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.

    1992-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment, the process that evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors, is being developed by the US EPA as a tool for decision making. This book presents one approach to risk assessment-that of applying laboratory toxicity data within an ecosystem model to predict the potential ecological consequences of toxic chemicals. Both Standard Water Column Model (SWACOM), using zooplankton and fish, and Monte Carlo simulations are discussed in detail, along with quantitative explanations for many responses. Simplifying assumptions are explicitly presented. The final chapter discusses strengths, weaknesses, and future directions of the approach. The book is appropriate for anyone who does or uses ecological risk assessment methodologies

  9. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  10. The need to estimate risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1980-01-01

    In an increasing number of situations, it is becoming possible to obtain and compare numerical estimates of the biological risks involved in different alternative sources of action. In some cases these risks are similar in kind, as for example when the risk of including fatal cancer of the breast or stomach by x-ray screening of a population at risk, is compared with the risk of such cancers proving fatal if not detected by a screening programme. In other cases in which it is important to attempt a comparison, the risks are dissimilar in type, as when the safety of occupations involving exposure to radiation or chemical carcinogens is compared with that of occupations in which the major risks are from lung disease or from accidental injury and death. Similar problems of assessing the relative severity of unlike effects occur in any attempt to compare the total biological harm associated with a given output of electricity derived from different primary fuel sources, with its contributions both of occupation and of public harm. In none of these instances is the numerical frequency of harmful effects alone an adequate measure of total biological detriment, nor is such detriment the only factor which should influence decisions. Estimations of risk appear important however, since otherwise public health decisions are likely to be made on more arbitrary grounds, and public opinion will continue to be affected predominantly by the type rather than also by the size of risk. (author)

  11. Radiation in space: risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fry, R.J.M.

    2002-01-01

    The complexity of radiation environments in space makes estimation of risks more difficult than for the protection of terrestrial population. In deep space the duration of the mission, position of the solar cycle, number and size of solar particle events (SPE) and the spacecraft shielding are the major determinants of risk. In low-earth orbit missions there are the added factors of altitude and orbital inclination. Different radiation qualities such as protons and heavy ions and secondary radiations inside the spacecraft such as neutrons of various energies, have to be considered. Radiation dose rates in space are low except for short periods during very large SPEs. Risk estimation for space activities is based on the human experience of exposure to gamma rays and to a lesser extent X rays. The doses of protons, heavy ions and neutrons are adjusted to take into account the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the different radiation types and thus derive equivalent doses. RBE values and factors to adjust for the effect of dose rate have to be obtained from experimental data. The influence of age and gender on the cancer risk is estimated from the data from atomic bomb survivors. Because of the large number of variables the uncertainties in the probability of the effects are large. Information needed to improve the risk estimates includes: (1) risk of cancer induction by protons, heavy ions and neutrons; (2) influence of dose rate and protraction, particularly on potential tissue effects such as reduced fertility and cataracts; and (3) possible effects of heavy ions on the central nervous system. Risk cannot be eliminated and thus there must be a consensus on what level of risk is acceptable. (author)

  12. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  13. Risk Management in Supply Chain using Consistent Fuzzy Preference Relations

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad Jafarnejad; Mehran Ebrahimi; Mohammad Ali Abbaszadeh; Seyed Mehdi Abtahi

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, supply chains are exposed to numerous risks. Thus, to success in risky business environment, it is imperative for firms to systematically manage supply chain risks. Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of supply chain risks. The purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive approach to risk management in supply chains. Thus, by an appropriate review of the literature, supply chain risk sources are identified in six areas. Then, a CFPR method is...

  14. A Benchmark Estimate for the Capital Stock. An Optimal Consistency Method

    OpenAIRE

    Jose Miguel Albala-Bertrand

    2001-01-01

    There are alternative methods to estimate a capital stock for a benchmark year. These methods, however, do not allow for an independent check, which could establish whether the estimated benchmark level is too high or too low. I propose here an optimal consistency method (OCM), which may allow estimating a capital stock level for a benchmark year and/or checking the consistency of alternative estimates of a benchmark capital stock.

  15. Comments on mutagenesis risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, W.L.

    1976-01-01

    Several hypotheses and concepts have tended to oversimplify the problem of mutagenesis and can be misleading when used for genetic risk estimation. These include: the hypothesis that radiation-induced mutation frequency depends primarily on the DNA content per haploid genome, the extension of this concept to chemical mutagenesis, the view that, since DNA is DNA, mutational effects can be expected to be qualitatively similar in all organisms, the REC unit, and the view that mutation rates from chronic irradiation can be theoretically and accurately predicted from acute irradiation data. Therefore, direct determination of frequencies of transmitted mutations in mammals continues to be important for risk estimation, and the specific-locus method in mice is shown to be not as expensive as is commonly supposed for many of the chemical testing requirements

  16. Residual risk over-estimated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    The way nuclear power plants are built practically excludes accidents with serious consequences. This is attended to by careful selection of material, control of fabrication and regular retesting as well as by several safety systems working independently. But the remaining risk, a 'hypothetic' uncontrollable incident with catastrophic effects is the main subject of the discussion on the peaceful utilization of nuclear power. The this year's 'Annual Meeting on Nuclear Engineering' in Mannheim and the meeting 'Reactor Safety Research' in Cologne showed, that risk studies so far were too pessimistic. 'Best estimate' calculations suggest that core melt-down accidents only occur if almost all safety systems fail, that accidents take place much more slowly, and that the release of radioactive fission products is by several magnitudes lower than it was assumed until now. (orig.) [de

  17. Risk aversion vs. the Omega ratio : Consistency results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balder, Sven; Schweizer, Nikolaus

    This paper clarifies when the Omega ratio and related performance measures are consistent with second order stochastic dominance and when they are not. To avoid consistency problems, the threshold parameter in the ratio should be chosen as the expected return of some benchmark – as is commonly done

  18. New risk estimates at low doses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fry, R.J.M.

    1992-01-01

    The age of molecular radiation epidemiology may be at hand. The techniques are available to establish with the degree of precision required to determine whether agent-specific mutations can be identified consistently. A concerted effort to examine radiation-induced changes in as many relevant genes as possible appears to be justified. Cancers in those exposed to low doses of ionizing radiation should be chosen for the investigation. Parallel studies of radiation-induced cancers in experimental animals would not only complement the human studies, but perhaps reveal approaches to extrapolation of risk estimates across species. A caveat should be added to this optimistic view of what molecular studies might contribute to the knotty problem of risk estimates at low doses. The suggestions are made by one with no expertise in the field of molecular biology

  19. An Economical Approach to Estimate a Benchmark Capital Stock. An Optimal Consistency Method

    OpenAIRE

    Jose Miguel Albala-Bertrand

    2003-01-01

    There are alternative methods of estimating capital stock for a benchmark year. However, these methods are costly and time-consuming, requiring the gathering of much basic information as well as the use of some convenient assumptions and guesses. In addition, a way is needed of checking whether the estimated benchmark is at the correct level. This paper proposes an optimal consistency method (OCM), which enables a capital stock to be estimated for a benchmark year, and which can also be used ...

  20. Psychological methods of subjective risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimolong, B.

    1980-01-01

    Reactions to situations involving risks can be divided into the following parts/ perception of danger, subjective estimates of the risk and risk taking with respect to action. Several investigations have compared subjective estimates of the risk with an objective measure of that risk. In general there was a mis-match between subjective and objective measures of risk, especially, objective risk involved in routine activities is most commonly underestimated. This implies, for accident prevention, that attempts must be made to induce accurate subjective risk estimates by technical and behavioural measures. (orig.) [de

  1. Consistent estimate of ocean warming, land ice melt and sea level rise from Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blazquez, Alejandro; Meyssignac, Benoît; Lemoine, Jean Michel

    2016-04-01

    Based on the sea level budget closure approach, this study investigates the consistency of observed Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) estimates from satellite altimetry, observed Ocean Thermal Expansion (OTE) estimates from in-situ hydrographic data (based on Argo for depth above 2000m and oceanic cruises below) and GRACE observations of land water storage and land ice melt for the period January 2004 to December 2014. The consistency between these datasets is a key issue if we want to constrain missing contributions to sea level rise such as the deep ocean contribution. Numerous previous studies have addressed this question by summing up the different contributions to sea level rise and comparing it to satellite altimetry observations (see for example Llovel et al. 2015, Dieng et al. 2015). Here we propose a novel approach which consists in correcting GRACE solutions over the ocean (essentially corrections of stripes and leakage from ice caps) with mass observations deduced from the difference between satellite altimetry GMSL and in-situ hydrographic data OTE estimates. We check that the resulting GRACE corrected solutions are consistent with original GRACE estimates of the geoid spherical harmonic coefficients within error bars and we compare the resulting GRACE estimates of land water storage and land ice melt with independent results from the literature. This method provides a new mass redistribution from GRACE consistent with observations from Altimetry and OTE. We test the sensibility of this method to the deep ocean contribution and the GIA models and propose best estimates.

  2. Methods for risk estimation in nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauvenet, A [CEA, 75 - Paris (France)

    1979-01-01

    The author presents methods for estimating the different risks related to nuclear energy: immediate or delayed risks, individual or collective risks, risks of accidents and long-term risks. These methods have attained a highly valid level of elaboration and their application to other industrial or human problems is currently under way, especially in English-speaking countries.

  3. A New Family of Consistent and Asymptotically-Normal Estimators for the Extremal Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Olmo

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The extremal index (θ is the key parameter for extending extreme value theory results from i.i.d. to stationary sequences. One important property of this parameter is that its inverse determines the degree of clustering in the extremes. This article introduces a novel interpretation of the extremal index as a limiting probability characterized by two Poisson processes and a simple family of estimators derived from this new characterization. Unlike most estimators for θ in the literature, this estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal and very stable across partitions of the sample. Further, we show in an extensive simulation study that this estimator outperforms in finite samples the logs, blocks and runs estimation methods. Finally, we apply this new estimator to test for clustering of extremes in monthly time series of unemployment growth and inflation rates and conclude that runs of large unemployment rates are more prolonged than periods of high inflation.

  4. Consistency in Estimation and Model Selection of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjie Li

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We examine the relationship between consistent parameter estimation and model selection for autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects. We find that the transformation of fixed effects proposed by Lancaster (2002 does not necessarily lead to consistent estimation of common parameters when some true exogenous regressors are excluded. We propose a data dependent way to specify the prior of the autoregressive coefficient and argue for comparing different model specifications before parameter estimation. Model selection properties of Bayes factors and Bayesian information criterion (BIC are investigated. When model uncertainty is substantial, we recommend the use of Bayesian Model Averaging to obtain point estimators with lower root mean squared errors (RMSE. We also study the implications of different levels of inclusion probabilities by simulations.

  5. Estimating True Short-Term Consistency in Vocational Interests: A Longitudinal SEM Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudron, Jean-Philippe; Vautier, Stephane

    2007-01-01

    This study aimed at estimating the correlation between true scores (true consistency) of vocational interest over a short time span in a sample of 1089 adults. Participants were administered 54 items assessing vocational, family, and leisure interests twice over a 1-month period. Responses were analyzed with a multitrait (MT) model, which supposes…

  6. A level playing field: Obtaining consistent cost estimates for advanced reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II; Rohm, H.H.; Humphreys, J.R. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    Rules and guidelines for developing cost estimates are given which provide a means for presenting cost estimates for advanced concepts on a consistent and equitable basis. For advanced reactor designs, the scope of a cost estimate includes the plant capital cost, the operating and maintenance cost, the fuel cycle cost, and the cost of decommissioning. Each element is subdivided as is necessary to provide a common reporting format for all power plant concepts. The total generation cost is taken to be a suitable choice for a summary figure of merit. To test the application of the rules and guidelines as well as developing reference costs for current technologies, several different sized coal and pressurized water reactor plant cost estimates have been prepared

  7. Mobile phone use and risk of intracranial tumors: a consistency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, Susanna; Röösli, Martin

    2014-02-01

    A meta-analysis of studies on intracranial tumors and mobile phone use published by the end of 2012 was performed to evaluate the overall consistency of findings, assess the sensitivity of results to changes in the dataset, and try to detect the sources of between-study heterogeneity. Twenty-nine papers met our inclusion criteria. These papers reported on 47 eligible studies (17 on glioma, 15 on meningioma, 15 on acoustic neuroma), consisting of either primary investigations or pooled analyses. Five combinations of non-overlapping studies per outcome were identified. The combined relative risks (cRRs) in long-term mobile phone users (≥10 years) ranged between 0.98 (0.75-1.28) and 1.11 (0.86-1.44) for meningioma, with little heterogeneity across studies. High heterogeneity was detected across estimates of glioma and acoustic neuroma risk in long term users, with cRRs ranging between 1.19 (95% CI 0.86-1.64) and 1.40 (0.96-2.04), and from 1.14 (0.65-1.99) to 1.33 (0.65-2.73), respectively. A meta-regression of primary studies showed that the methodological differences embedded in the variable "study-group" explained most of the overall heterogeneity in results. Summary risk estimates based on heterogeneous findings should not be over-interpreted. Overall, the results of our study detract from the hypothesis that mobile phone use affects the occurrence of intracranial tumors. However, reproducibility (or lack of) is just one clue in the critical appraisal of epidemiological evidence. Based on other considerations, such as the limited knowledge currently available on risk beyond 15 years from first exposure, or following mobile phone use started in childhood, the pursuance of epidemiological surveillance is warranted. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Child mortality estimation: consistency of under-five mortality rate estimates using full birth histories and summary birth histories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romesh Silva

    Full Text Available Given the lack of complete vital registration data in most developing countries, for many countries it is not possible to accurately estimate under-five mortality rates from vital registration systems. Heavy reliance is often placed on direct and indirect methods for analyzing data collected from birth histories to estimate under-five mortality rates. Yet few systematic comparisons of these methods have been undertaken. This paper investigates whether analysts should use both direct and indirect estimates from full birth histories, and under what circumstances indirect estimates derived from summary birth histories should be used.Usings Demographic and Health Surveys data from West Africa, East Africa, Latin America, and South/Southeast Asia, I quantify the differences between direct and indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates, analyze data quality issues, note the relative effects of these issues, and test whether these issues explain the observed differences. I find that indirect estimates are generally consistent with direct estimates, after adjustment for fertility change and birth transference, but don't add substantial additional insight beyond direct estimates. However, choice of direct or indirect method was found to be important in terms of both the adjustment for data errors and the assumptions made about fertility.Although adjusted indirect estimates are generally consistent with adjusted direct estimates, some notable inconsistencies were observed for countries that had experienced either a political or economic crisis or stalled health transition in their recent past. This result suggests that when a population has experienced a smooth mortality decline or only short periods of excess mortality, both adjusted methods perform equally well. However, the observed inconsistencies identified suggest that the indirect method is particularly prone to bias resulting from violations of its strong assumptions about recent mortality

  9. A level playing field-obtaining consistent cost estimates for advanced reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R.; Rohm, H.H.; Humphreys, J.R.

    1987-01-01

    A level playing field in sports is necessary to avoid a situation in which a team has an unfair advantage over its competition. Similarly, rules and guidelines for developing cost estimates can be established which, in effect, provide a level playing field whereby cost estimates for advanced power plant concepts can be presented on a consistent and equitable basis. As an example, consider the capital costs shown in Table 1. Both sets of cost are for the exact same power plant; Estimate 1 is expressed in constant dollars while Estimate 2 is presented in nominal or as-spent dollars. As shown, the costs in Table 1 are not directly comparable. Similar problems can be introduced as a result of differing assumptions in any number of parameters including the scope of the cost estimate, inflation/escalation and interest rates, contingency costs, and site location. Of course, the motivation for having consistent cost estimates is to permit comparison among various concepts. As the U.S. Department of Energy sponsors research and development work on several advanced reactor concepts in which expected cost is a key evaluation parameter, the emphasis in this particular endeavor has been in promoting the comparability of advanced reactor cost estimates among themselves and to existing power plant types. To continue with the analogy, the idea is to lay out the playing field and the rules of the contest such that each team participates in the match on an equal basis with the final score being solely determined by the inherent strengths and abilities of the teams. A description of the playing field and some of the more important rules will now be provided

  10. A Bayesian consistent dual ensemble Kalman filter for state-parameter estimation in subsurface hydrology

    KAUST Repository

    Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa; El Gharamti, Mohamad; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    Ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) is an efficient approach to addressing uncertainties in subsurface ground-water models. The EnKF sequentially integrates field data into simulation models to obtain a better characterization of the model's state and parameters. These are generally estimated following joint and dual filtering strategies, in which, at each assimilation cycle, a forecast step by the model is followed by an update step with incoming observations. The joint EnKF directly updates the augmented state-parameter vector, whereas the dual EnKF empirically employs two separate filters, first estimating the parameters and then estimating the state based on the updated parameters. To develop a Bayesian consistent dual approach and improve the state-parameter estimates and their consistency, we propose in this paper a one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing formulation of the state-parameter Bayesian filtering problem from which we derive a new dual-type EnKF, the dual EnKF(OSA). Compared with the standard dual EnKF, it imposes a new update step to the state, which is shown to enhance the performance of the dual approach with almost no increase in the computational cost. Numerical experiments are conducted with a two-dimensional (2-D) synthetic groundwater aquifer model to investigate the performance and robustness of the proposed dual EnKFOSA, and to evaluate its results against those of the joint and dual EnKFs. The proposed scheme is able to successfully recover both the hydraulic head and the aquifer conductivity, providing further reliable estimates of their uncertainties. Furthermore, it is found to be more robust to different assimilation settings, such as the spatial and temporal distribution of the observations, and the level of noise in the data. Based on our experimental setups, it yields up to 25% more accurate state and parameter estimations than the joint and dual approaches.

  11. A Bayesian consistent dual ensemble Kalman filter for state-parameter estimation in subsurface hydrology

    KAUST Repository

    Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa

    2016-08-12

    Ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) is an efficient approach to addressing uncertainties in subsurface ground-water models. The EnKF sequentially integrates field data into simulation models to obtain a better characterization of the model\\'s state and parameters. These are generally estimated following joint and dual filtering strategies, in which, at each assimilation cycle, a forecast step by the model is followed by an update step with incoming observations. The joint EnKF directly updates the augmented state-parameter vector, whereas the dual EnKF empirically employs two separate filters, first estimating the parameters and then estimating the state based on the updated parameters. To develop a Bayesian consistent dual approach and improve the state-parameter estimates and their consistency, we propose in this paper a one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing formulation of the state-parameter Bayesian filtering problem from which we derive a new dual-type EnKF, the dual EnKF(OSA). Compared with the standard dual EnKF, it imposes a new update step to the state, which is shown to enhance the performance of the dual approach with almost no increase in the computational cost. Numerical experiments are conducted with a two-dimensional (2-D) synthetic groundwater aquifer model to investigate the performance and robustness of the proposed dual EnKFOSA, and to evaluate its results against those of the joint and dual EnKFs. The proposed scheme is able to successfully recover both the hydraulic head and the aquifer conductivity, providing further reliable estimates of their uncertainties. Furthermore, it is found to be more robust to different assimilation settings, such as the spatial and temporal distribution of the observations, and the level of noise in the data. Based on our experimental setups, it yields up to 25% more accurate state and parameter estimations than the joint and dual approaches.

  12. Joint depth map and color consistency estimation for stereo images with different illuminations and cameras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heo, Yong Seok; Lee, Kyoung Mu; Lee, Sang Uk

    2013-05-01

    Abstract—In this paper, we propose a method that infers both accurate depth maps and color-consistent stereo images for radiometrically varying stereo images. In general, stereo matching and performing color consistency between stereo images are a chicken-and-egg problem since it is not a trivial task to simultaneously achieve both goals. Hence, we have developed an iterative framework in which these two processes can boost each other. First, we transform the input color images to log-chromaticity color space, from which a linear relationship can be established during constructing a joint pdf of transformed left and right color images. From this joint pdf, we can estimate a linear function that relates the corresponding pixels in stereo images. Based on this linear property, we present a new stereo matching cost by combining Mutual Information (MI), SIFT descriptor, and segment-based plane-fitting to robustly find correspondence for stereo image pairs which undergo radiometric variations. Meanwhile, we devise a Stereo Color Histogram Equalization (SCHE) method to produce color-consistent stereo image pairs, which conversely boost the disparity map estimation. Experimental results show that our method produces both accurate depth maps and color-consistent stereo images, even for stereo images with severe radiometric differences.

  13. Faecal consistency and risk factors for diarrhoea and constipation in cats in UK rehoming shelters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    German, Allison C; Cunliffe, Nigel A; Morgan, Kenton L

    2017-01-01

    Objectives The aim of the study was to describe faecal consistency, prevalence and risk factors for diarrhoea and constipation in a rescue cat population. Methods Faecal samples in litter trays from a stratified random sample of cats in pens at 25 UK rehoming centres were scored for consistency in two discrete time periods, summer and winter. A six-point scale was used, with diarrhoea ⩽3, severe diarrhoea ⩽2 and constipation as 6. The effect on faecal consistency of age, number of cats per pen and season was investigated using multivariable hierarchical logistic regression with centre and pen as random effects. Intraclass correlation coefficients were used to estimate the effect of pen and centre. Results Overall, 11.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]:10.4-13.7) of cats had diarrhoea, 2.4% (95% CI 1.6-3.7) had severe diarrhoea and 5.6% (95% CI 4.2-7.5) were constipated. The prevalence of diarrhoea (median 11.0%, interquartile range [IQR] 5.0-14.5%) and constipation (median 4.2%, IQR 1.8-5.9) varied at the centre level. Diarrhoea was associated with being a kitten (odds ratio [OR] 2.54, 95% CI 1.45-4.46; P = 0.001) and being in a multi-cat pen (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.48; P = 0.02) but not with season (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.55-1.77; P = 0.96). Severe diarrhoea was associated with senior cats (OR 4.66, 95% CI 1.25-17.44; P = 0.02). Constipation was associated with increasing age (OR 1.01; 95% CI 1.00-1.01; P = 0.02) and winter (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.21-0.89; P = 0.02). Both diarrhoea and constipation showed moderate correlation with pens within a centre. Conclusions and relevance From IQRs, we suggest acceptable levels for diarrhoea and constipation of 11% and 4%, respectively, targets of 5% and 2%, and intervention at 15% and 6%. Increasing age was associated with decreased risk of diarrhoea and increased risk of constipation. However, severe diarrhoea was associated with being a senior cat. Season (winter) was a risk factor for constipation; multi-cat pens were a risk

  14. Risk estimates for exposure to alpha emitters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-07-01

    The primary scope of this report is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer from occupational exposure to short-lived daughters of radon and thoron. The Subcommittee on Risk Estimates considers that inhalation of radon and thoron daughters is the major radiation hazard from alpha radiation in uranium mining. The secondary scope of this report is the consideration of the applicability of the risk estimates derived from miners to the general public. The risk to members of the public from radium-226 in drinking water is also considered. Some research requirments are suggested

  15. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  16. A Consistent Methodology Based Parameter Estimation for a Lactic Acid Bacteria Fermentation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spann, Robert; Roca, Christophe; Kold, David

    2017-01-01

    Lactic acid bacteria are used in many industrial applications, e.g. as starter cultures in the dairy industry or as probiotics, and research on their cell production is highly required. A first principles kinetic model was developed to describe and understand the biological, physical, and chemical...... mechanisms in a lactic acid bacteria fermentation. We present here a consistent approach for a methodology based parameter estimation for a lactic acid fermentation. In the beginning, just an initial knowledge based guess of parameters was available and an initial parameter estimation of the complete set...... of parameters was performed in order to get a good model fit to the data. However, not all parameters are identifiable with the given data set and model structure. Sensitivity, identifiability, and uncertainty analysis were completed and a relevant identifiable subset of parameters was determined for a new...

  17. Consistent Estimation of Continuous-Time Signals from Nonlinear Transformations of Noisy Samples,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-03-10

    t, then hn is given by (5) (with W = n) and represents the Szasz operator. Theorem 3.0, while guaranteeing mean-square consistency of the estimate Sw...t), provides no bounds on the rate of convergence. We shall derive such bounds for linear systems hW corresponding to the class of generalized Szasz ...operators [6] (see below) and to the Bernstein operator. While the Szasz operator (5) can be generated as in Proposition 3.0, the class of generalized

  18. Uranium mill tailings and risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, S.

    1984-04-01

    Work done in estimating projected health effects for persons exposed to mill tailings at vicinity properties is described. The effect of the reassessment of exposures at Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the risk estimates for gamma radiation is discussed. A presentation of current results in the epidemiological study of Hanford workers is included. 2 references

  19. Estimation of risks from medical irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, B.R.R.

    1983-01-01

    This paper discuss various concepts of quantifying risks from medical irradiation. The expected individual risk from specific medical examination can be derived by estimation the dose-equivalent in different organs and tissues and apply the risk factors recommended for these tissues. A more practical way is to estimate or measure the energy imparted which has been found to correlate quite well with the total risk derived by summing up the risks for the involved tissues. The effective dose-equivalent concept can be used to derive the collective effective dose-equivalent in a population in order to compare the contribution from medical exposure with the contribution from other sources of irradiation in the society. In many countries it is thus shown that medical exposures gives the largest man-made contribution to the population dose

  20. Cardiovascular risk estimation in older persons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cooney, Marie Therese; Selmer, Randi; Lindman, Anja

    2016-01-01

    .73 to 0.75). Calibration was also reasonable, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test: 17.16 (men), 22.70 (women). Compared with the original SCORE function extrapolated to the ≥65 years age group discrimination improved, p = 0.05 (men), p women). Simple risk charts were constructed. On simulated...... risk estimation systems, that risk factors function similarly in all age groups. We aimed to derive and validate a risk estimation function, SCORE O.P., solely from data from individuals aged 65 years and older. METHODS AND RESULTS: 20,704 men and 20,121 women, aged 65 and over and without pre...... model and were included in the SCORE O.P. model were: age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and diabetes. SCORE O.P. showed good discrimination; area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0...

  1. Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

  2. Estimation, assessment and management of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

    2005-01-01

    After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

  3. Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dankar Fida

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated. The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk.

  4. [The concept of risk and its estimation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A

    1996-01-01

    The concept of risk, in relation to human health, is a topic of primary interest for occupational health professionals. A new legislation recently established in Italy (626/94) according to European Community directives in the field of Preventive Medicine, called attention to this topic, and in particular to risk assessment and evaluation. Motivated by this context and by the impression that the concept of risk is frequently misunderstood, the present paper has two aims: the identification of the different meanings of the term "risk" in the new Italian legislation and the critical discussion of some commonly used definitions; and the proposal of a general definition, with the specification of a mathematical expression for quantitative risk estimation. The term risk (and risk estimation, assessment, or evaluation) has mainly referred to three different contexts: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects occurrence. Unfortunately, there are contexts in the legislation in which it is difficult to identify the true meaning of the term. This might cause equivocal interpretations and erroneous applications of the law because hazard evaluation, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects identification are completely different topics that require integrated but distinct approaches to risk management. As far as a quantitative definition of risk is of concern, we suggest an algorithm which connects the three basic risk elements (hazard, exposure, adverse health effects) by means of their probabilities of occurrence: the probability of being exposed (to a definite dose) given that a specific hazard is present (Pr(e[symbol: see text]p)), and the probability of occurrence of an adverse health effect as a consequence of that exposure (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)). Using these quantitative components, risk can be defined as a sequence of measurable events that starts with hazard identification and terminates with disease occurrence; therefore, the

  5. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamsen, E.B. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)], E-mail: eirik.abrahamsen@uis.no; Aven, T. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)

    2008-12-15

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory.

  6. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamsen, E.B.; Aven, T.

    2008-01-01

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory

  7. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

  8. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

  9. Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, F. R.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Roberts, J. B.; Reichle, R. H.; Adler, R.; Ricciardulli, L.; Berg, W.; Huffman, G. J.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal

  10. Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.

    1998-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics

  11. Precommitted Investment Strategy versus Time-Consistent Investment Strategy for a Dual Risk Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidong Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We are concerned with optimal investment strategy for a dual risk model. We assume that the company can invest into a risk-free asset and a risky asset. Short-selling and borrowing money are allowed. Due to lack of iterated-expectation property, the Bellman Optimization Principle does not hold. Thus we investigate the precommitted strategy and time-consistent strategy, respectively. We take three steps to derive the precommitted investment strategy. Furthermore, the time-consistent investment strategy is also obtained by solving the extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. We compare the precommitted strategy with time-consistent strategy and find that these different strategies have different advantages: the former can make value function maximized at the original time t=0 and the latter strategy is time-consistent for the whole time horizon. Finally, numerical analysis is presented for our results.

  12. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  13. Self-consistent technique for estimating the dynamic yield strength of a shock-loaded material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asay, J.R.; Lipkin, J.

    1978-01-01

    A technique is described for estimating the dynamic yield stress in a shocked material. This method employs reloading and unloading data from a shocked state along with a general assumption of yield and hardening behavior to estimate the yield stress in the precompressed state. No other data are necessary for this evaluation, and, therefore, the method has general applicability at high shock pressures and in materials undergoing phase transitions. In some special cases, it is also possible to estimate the complete state of stress in a shocked state. Using this method, the dynamic yield strength of aluminum at 2.06 GPa has been estimated to be 0.26 GPa. This value agrees reasonably well with previous estimates

  14. Precommitted Investment Strategy versus Time-Consistent Investment Strategy for a General Risk Model with Diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidong Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We mainly study a general risk model and investigate the precommitted strategy and the time-consistent strategy under mean-variance criterion, respectively. A lagrange method is proposed to derive the precommitted investment strategy. Meanwhile from the game theoretical perspective, we find the time-consistent investment strategy by solving the extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. By comparing the precommitted strategy with the time-consistent strategy, we find that the company under the time-consistent strategy has to give up the better current utility in order to keep a consistent satisfaction over the whole time horizon. Furthermore, we theoretically and numerically provide the effect of the parameters on these two optimal strategies and the corresponding value functions.

  15. MARKET RISK ESTIMATION IN (T+-TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radik B. Begov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Market risk analysis and estimation are presentedin T+ transactionsas they are used within the Moscow Exchange. There is a need to do so as a result of the cut-off of a new REPO product with Central Counterpartner (CCP. Here repurchase agreement goes through the National Clearing Center (NCC, the last being a bank and a clearing structure within the Moscow Exchange group.NCC actsas an intermediary (so called “Central Counterpartner” between trading participants.REPOs with CCP raisecontractor claims and commitments to the CCP which takes the risk of default on commitments from unfair contract side. The REPO with CCP cut-off made ready a technological platform to implement T+2 trades at the Moscow Exchange. As a result of it there appeared the possibility to enter security purchase/sell contracts partially collateralized. All these transactions (the REPO with CCP, T+ made it a must determining security market risks. The paper is aimed at presenting VaR-like risk estimates. The methods used are from the computer fi nance. Unusual TS rate of return indicator is proposed and applied to find optimal portfolios under the Markowitz approach and their VaRs (losses forecasts given the real “big” share price data and various horizons. Portfolio extreme rate and loss forecasting is our goal. To this end the forecasts are computed for three horizons (2, 5 and 10 days and for three significance levels.There were developed R-, Excel- and Bloomberg-basedsoftware tools as needed. The whole range of proposed computing steps and the tables with charts may be considered as candidates to be included in the future market risk standards.Paper results permit capital market participants to choose the correct (as to the required risk level common stocks.

  16. Gene-Environment Interplay in Internalizing Disorders: Consistent Findings across Six Environmental Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Brian M.; DiRago, Ana C.; Iacono, William G.; McGue, Matt

    2009-01-01

    Background Newer behavior genetic methods can better elucidate gene-environment (G-E) interplay in the development of internalizing (INT) disorders (i.e., major depression and anxiety disorders). However, no study to date has conducted a comprehensive analysis examining multiple environmental risks with the purpose of delineating how general G-E mechanisms influence the development of INT disorders. Methods The sample consisted of 1315 male and female twin pairs participating in the age 17 assessment of the Minnesota Twin Family Study. Quantitative G-E interplay models were used to examine how genetic and environmental risk for INT disorders changes as a function of environmental context. Multiple measures and informants were employed to construct composite measures of INT disorders and 6 environmental risk factors including: stressful life events, mother-child and father-child relationship problems, antisocial and prosocial peer affiliation, and academic achievement and engagement. Results Significant moderation effects were detected between each environmental risk factor and INT such that in the context of greater environmental adversity, nonshared environmental factors became more important in the etiology of INT symptoms. Conclusion Our results are consistent with the interpretation that environmental stressors have a causative effect on the emergence of INT disorders. The consistency of our results suggests a general mechanism of environmental influence on INT disorders regardless of the specific form of environmental risk. PMID:19594836

  17. NPP Boreal Forest: Consistent Worldwide Site Estimates, 1965-1995, R1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides estimates of above- and below-ground biomass, above- and below-ground NPP (ANPP and BNPP), and total NPP(TNPP) for selected North American and...

  18. Methods to estimate the genetic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehling, U.H.

    1989-01-01

    The estimation of the radiation-induced genetic risk to human populations is based on the extrapolation of results from animal experiments. Radiation-induced mutations are stochastic events. The probability of the event depends on the dose; the degree of the damage dose not. There are two main approaches in making genetic risk estimates. One of these, termed the direct method, expresses risk in terms of expected frequencies of genetic changes induced per unit dose. The other, referred to as the doubling dose method or the indirect method, expresses risk in relation to the observed incidence of genetic disorders now present in man. The advantage of the indirect method is that not only can Mendelian mutations be quantified, but also other types of genetic disorders. The disadvantages of the method are the uncertainties in determining the current incidence of genetic disorders in human and, in addition, the estimasion of the genetic component of congenital anomalies, anomalies expressed later and constitutional and degenerative diseases. Using the direct method we estimated that 20-50 dominant radiation-induced mutations would be expected in 19 000 offspring born to parents exposed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but only a small proportion of these mutants would have been detected with the techniques used for the population study. These methods were used to predict the genetic damage from the fallout of the reactor accident at Chernobyl in the vicinity of Southern Germany. The lack of knowledge for the interaction of chemicals with ionizing radiation and the discrepancy between the high safety standards for radiation protection and the low level of knowledge for the toxicological evaluation of chemical mutagens will be emphasized. (author)

  19. Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Shankar, D.

    yielded sea-level-rise estimates between 1.06–1.75 mm/ yrear-1 , with a regional average of 1.29 mm yr-1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data, with a regional average of 1.29 mm-1.. These estimates are consistent...

  20. Integrating field plots, lidar, and landsat time series to provide temporally consistent annual estimates of biomass from 1990 to present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren B. Cohen; Hans-Erik Andersen; Sean P. Healey; Gretchen G. Moisen; Todd A. Schroeder; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Zhiqiang Yang; Robert E. Kennedy; Stephen V. Stehman; Curtis Woodcock; Jim Vogelmann; Zhe Zhu; Chengquan. Huang

    2015-01-01

    We are developing a system that provides temporally consistent biomass estimates for national greenhouse gas inventory reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Our model-assisted estimation framework relies on remote sensing to scale from plot measurements to lidar strip samples, to Landsat time series-based maps. As a demonstration, new...

  1. The consistent estimation of income elasticity of environmental amenities in Uruguay

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel Miles; Andrés Pereyra; Máximo Rossi

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we are concerned with the estimation of income elasticities of environmental amenities. The novelty is the application of econometric methods that take into account the problem of measurement errors when estimating these elasticities, which is common in microeconomic data and is not usually considered in the applied literature related to this issue. Our aim is to discuss whether measurement errors have significant effects on income elasticities. Data from the { Expenditure Budge...

  2. Consistency of direct integral estimator for partially observed systems of ordinary differential equations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vujačić, Ivan; Dattner, Itai

    In this paper we use the sieve framework to prove consistency of the ‘direct integral estimator’ of parameters for partially observed systems of ordinary differential equations, which are commonly used for modeling dynamic processes.

  3. A review of radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-06-01

    Three authoritative reports (UNSCEAR-1988, BEIR-V-1990, and ICRP-1990 Recommendations) on risk estimates have been reviewed and compared to previous risk estimates published by the same organizations. The ICRP now uses the term 'probability' in place of the term 'risk'. For fatal cancers, the new ICRP probability estimates are 5.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 4.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For serious hereditary effects summarized over all generations, the ICRP probability coefficients are 1.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 0.6 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For prenatal irradiation, at 8 - 15 weeks after conception, there may be a decrease of 30 I.Q. points per Sv and a risk of cancer which may lie in the range of 2 to 10 x 10 -2 Sv -1 . Based mainly on the new probability estimates the ICRP recommends a limit on effective dose of 20 mSv per year, averaged over 5 years (100 mSv in 5 years) with the further provision that the effective dose should not exceed 50 mSv in any single year. For public exposure the ICRP recommends an annual limit on effective dose of 1 mSv. However, in special circumstances, a higher value of effective dose could be allowed in a single year provided that the average over 5 five years does not exceed 1 mSv per year. Once pregnancy has been declared, the conceptus should be protected by applying a supplementary equivalent dose limit to the surface of the woman's abdomen of 2 mSv for the remainder of the pregnancy and by limiting intakes of radionuclides to about 1/20 of the annual limit on intake. A brief survey of epidemiological studies of workers and the risks from radon and thoron progeny is also included. (110 refs, 29 tabs., 10 figs.)

  4. Are estimates of meaningful decline in mobility performance consistent among clinically important subgroups? (Health ABC Study).

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perera, S.; Studenski, S.; Newman, A.; Simonsick, E.; Harris, T.; Schwartz, A.; Visser, M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Meaningful change criteria help determine if function has improved or declined, but their magnitudes may vary across clinically relevant subgroups. We estimate meaningful decline in four common measures of physical performance in subgroups of older adults based on initial performance,

  5. Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, Carolyn; Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K

    2017-01-01

    Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature...... review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers...... and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality...

  6. Strong consistency of nonparametric Bayes density estimation on compact metric spaces with applications to specific manifolds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Abhishek; Dunson, David B

    2012-08-01

    This article considers a broad class of kernel mixture density models on compact metric spaces and manifolds. Following a Bayesian approach with a nonparametric prior on the location mixing distribution, sufficient conditions are obtained on the kernel, prior and the underlying space for strong posterior consistency at any continuous density. The prior is also allowed to depend on the sample size n and sufficient conditions are obtained for weak and strong consistency. These conditions are verified on compact Euclidean spaces using multivariate Gaussian kernels, on the hypersphere using a von Mises-Fisher kernel and on the planar shape space using complex Watson kernels.

  7. Estimating long-term volatility parameters for market-consistent models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Contemporary actuarial and accounting practices (APN 110 in the South African context) require the use of market-consistent models for the valuation of embedded investment derivatives. These models have to be calibrated with accurate and up-to-date market data. Arguably, the most important variable in the valuation of ...

  8. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  9. "A Comparison of Consensus, Consistency, and Measurement Approaches to Estimating Interrater Reliability"

    OpenAIRE

    Steven E. Stemler

    2004-01-01

    This article argues that the general practice of describing interrater reliability as a single, unified concept is..at best imprecise, and at worst potentially misleading. Rather than representing a single concept, different..statistical methods for computing interrater reliability can be more accurately classified into one of three..categories based upon the underlying goals of analysis. The three general categories introduced and..described in this paper are: 1) consensus estimates, 2) cons...

  10. Obtaining numerically consistent estimates from a mix of administrative data and surveys

    OpenAIRE

    de Waal, A.G.

    2016-01-01

    National statistical institutes (NSIs) fulfil an important role as providers of objective and undisputed statistical information on many different aspects of society. To this end NSIs try to construct data sets that are rich in information content and that can be used to estimate a large variety of population figures. At the same time NSIs aim to construct these rich data sets as efficiently and cost effectively as possible. This can be achieved by utilizing already available administrative d...

  11. A CONSISTENT ESTIMATE FOR THE IMPACT OF SINGAPORE'S EXCHANGE RATE ON COMPETITIVENESS

    OpenAIRE

    JANG PING THIA

    2010-01-01

    Services form a larger part of the Singapore economy. However, it is difficult to analyze the exchange rate impact on services due to the lack of price data. Regression of output or export on exchange rate, while highly intuitive, is likely to suffer from the endogeneity problem since Singapore's exchange rate is used as a counter-cyclical policy tool. This results in inconsistent estimates. I propose a novel approach to overcome these limitations by using Hong Kong as a control for Singapore...

  12. Estimators of internal consistency in health research: the use of the alpha coefficient

    OpenAIRE

    Cascaes da Silva, Fraciele; Centro de Ciencias de la Salud y del Deporte, Universidad del Estado de Santa Catarina, Santa Catarina, Brasil.; Gonçalves, Elizandra; Centro de Ciencias de la Salud y del Deporte, Universidad del Estado de Santa Catarina, Santa Catarina, Brasil.; Valdivia Arancibia, Beatriz Angélica; Centro de Ciencias de la Salud y del Deporte, Universidad del Estado de Santa Catarina, Santa Catarina, Brasil; Graziele Bento, Salma; Centro de Ciencias de la Salud y del Deporte, Universidad del Estado de Santa Catarina, Santa Catarina, Brasil.; da Silva Castro, Thiago Luis; Centro de Ciencias de la Salud y del Deporte, Universidad del Estado de Santa Catarina, Santa Catarina, Brasil; Soleman Hernandez, Salma Stephany; Centro de Ciencias de la Salud y del Deporte, Universidad del Estado de Santa Catarina, Santa Catarina, Brasil; da Silva, Rudney; Centro de Ciencias de la Salud y del Deporte, Universidad del Estado de Santa Catarina, Santa Catarina, Brasil

    2015-01-01

    Academic production has increased in the area of health, increasingly demanding high quality in publications of great impact. One of the ways to consider quality is through methods that increase the consistency of data analysis, such as reliability which, depending on the type of data, can be evaluated by different coefficients, especially the alpha coefficient. Based on this, the present review systematically gathers scientific articles produced in the last five years, which in a methodologi...

  13. Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

    2010-08-01

    *Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems.

  14. A generalized L1-approach for a kernel estimator of conditional quantile with functional regressors: Consistency and asymptotic normality

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Abstract A kernel estimator of the conditional quantile is defined for a scalar response variable given a covariate taking values in a semi-metric space. The approach generalizes the median?s L1-norm estimator. The almost complete consistency and asymptotic normality are stated. correspondance: Corresponding author. Tel: +33 320 964 933; fax: +33 320 964 704. (Lemdani, Mohamed) (Laksaci, Ali) mohamed.lemdani@univ-lill...

  15. Process of Integrating Screening and Detailed Risk-based Modeling Analyses to Ensure Consistent and Scientifically Defensible Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buck, John W.; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.

    2002-01-01

    To support cleanup and closure of these tanks, modeling is performed to understand and predict potential impacts to human health and the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a screening tool for the United States Department of Energy, Office of River Protection that estimates the long-term human health risk, from a strategic planning perspective, posed by potential tank releases to the environment. This tool is being conditioned to more detailed model analyses to ensure consistency between studies and to provide scientific defensibility. Once the conditioning is complete, the system will be used to screen alternative cleanup and closure strategies. The integration of screening and detailed models provides consistent analyses, efficiencies in resources, and positive feedback between the various modeling groups. This approach of conditioning a screening methodology to more detailed analyses provides decision-makers with timely and defensible information and increases confidence in the results on the part of clients, regulators, and stakeholders

  16. A consistent approach to CO{sub 2} storage capacity estimation for deep saline formations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dose, T. [DEA Mineraloel AG, Hamburg (Germany)

    2008-10-23

    Whereas the methodology of assessing pore volume is well established, a consistent methodology for calculating the pore volume efficiency (PVE) needs to be applied, e.g., as proposed in this paper. (1) Numerical simulations show, that CO{sub 2} storage sites are not restricted to geologic traps like anticlines. Also synclines and flat structures provide feasible storage structures, as long as no shortcut to the surface like leaking faults or wells exist. (2) Among active forces induced by CO{sub 2} injection, differential injection pressure and static pressure increase may turn out to be critical. This can lead to overlap with capillary displacement pressure, fracturing pressure, and exceeding the fault friction limit. (3) If differential injection pressure turns out to be critical, this can be balanced technically. Fault slippage can be avoided by selecting appropriate sites. (4) For the CO{sub 2} storage system to stay in balance, it is required that the static pressure increase stays below the capillary displacement pressure. (5) With this limiting conditions, scenarios show PVEs of 0.1-0.65% for a hydraulic system, mostly dependant on caprock quality and total compressibility. (6) Likely several possible storage sites exist for a hydraulic system. It is almost sure that the sum of the local storage potential will exceed the storage potential of the hydraulic system. (7) Regional pressure effects of CO{sub 2} storage can be significant. Different storage sites injecting at high rates into the same hydraulic system will need large distances between them. (9) Due to likely interference of storage sites and other fluid operations within a hydraulic system, close cooperations between operators may become necessary. (orig.)

  17. Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-09-01

    Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

  18. Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

    2011-07-01

    We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

  19. Bounds and self-consistent estimates for elastic constants of polycrystals composed of orthorhombics or crystals with higher symmetries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berryman, James G

    2011-04-01

    Methods for computing Hashin-Shtrikman bounds and related self-consistent estimates of elastic constants for polycrystals composed of crystals having orthorhombic symmetry have been known for about three decades. However, these methods are underutilized, perhaps because of some perceived difficulties with implementing the necessary computational procedures. Several simplifications of these techniques are introduced, thereby reducing the overall computational burden, as well as the complications inherent in mapping out the Hashin-Shtrikman bounding curves. The self-consistent estimates of the effective elastic constants are very robust, involving a quickly converging iteration procedure. Once these self-consistent values are known, they may then be used to speed up the computations of the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds themselves. It is shown furthermore that the resulting orthorhombic polycrystal code can be used as well to compute both bounds and self-consistent estimates for polycrystals of higher-symmetry tetragonal, hexagonal, and cubic (but not trigonal) materials. The self-consistent results found this way are shown to be the same as those obtained using the earlier methods, specifically those methods designed specially for each individual symmetry type. But the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds found using the orthorhombic code are either the same or (more typically) tighter than those found previously for these special cases (i.e., tetragonal, hexagonal, and cubic). The improvement in the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds is presumably due to the additional degrees of freedom introduced into the available search space.

  20. Bounds and self-consistent estimates for elastic constants of granular polycrystals composed of orthorhombics or crystal with higher symmetries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berryman, J. G.

    2011-02-01

    Methods for computing Hashin-Shtrikman bounds and related self-consistent estimates of elastic constants for polycrystals composed of crystals having orthorhombic symmetry have been known for about three decades. However, these methods are underutilized, perhaps because of some perceived difficulties with implementing the necessary computational procedures. Several simplifications of these techniques are introduced, thereby reducing the overall computational burden, as well as the complications inherent in mapping out the Hashin-Shtrikman bounding curves. The self-consistent estimates of the effective elastic constants are very robust, involving a quickly converging iteration procedure. Once these self-consistent values are known, they may then be used to speed up the computations of the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds themselves. It is shown furthermore that the resulting orthorhombic polycrystal code can be used as well to compute both bounds and self-consistent estimates for polycrystals of higher-symmetry tetragonal, hexagonal, and cubic (but not trigonal) materials. The self-consistent results found this way are shown to be the same as those obtained using the earlier methods, specifically those methods designed specially for each individual symmetry type. But the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds found using the orthorhombic code are either the same or (more typically) tighter than those found previously for these special cases (i.e., tetragonal, hexagonal, and cubic). The improvement in the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds is presumably due to the additional degrees of freedom introduced into the available search space.

  1. Two-Sample Two-Stage Least Squares (TSTSLS estimates of earnings mobility: how consistent are they?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Jerrim

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Academics and policymakers have shown great interest in cross-national comparisons of intergenerational earnings mobility. However, producing consistent and comparable estimates of earnings mobility is not a trivial task. In most countries researchers are unable to observe earnings information for two generations. They are thus forced to rely upon imputed data from different surveys instead. This paper builds upon previous work by considering the consistency of the intergenerational correlation (ρ as well as the elasticity (β, how this changes when using a range of different instrumental (imputer variables, and highlighting an important but infrequently discussed measurement issue. Our key finding is that, while TSTSLS estimates of β and ρ are both likely to be inconsistent, the magnitude of this problem is much greater for the former than it is for the latter. We conclude by offering advice on estimating earnings mobility using this methodology.

  2. A New Model for the Estimation of Breast Cancer Risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Giger, Maryellen Lissak

    2001-01-01

    ... for use in estimating risk of breast cancer. The specific aims include 1. Creating a database of mammograms, along with tabulated clinical information of women at low risk and high risk for breast cancer; 2...

  3. Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

    2015-01-01

    In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

  4. Cancer risk estimation from the A-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierce, D.A.; Vaeth, M.

    1989-10-01

    Generalizations regarding radiogenic cancer risks from the A-bomb survivor data of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation involve a large number of well-identified uncertainties and approximations. These include extrapolation to low doses and dose rates, projections in time, sampling variation, the quality of the data, extrapolation to other populations, and the use of simplifying conventions. This paper discusses some of these issues, with emphasis on the first three. Results are given regarding the maximum 'linear-quadratic' curvature consistent with these data, taking into account uncertainties in individual exposure estimates. Discussion is given regarding use of relative risk models and projection of lifetime risks, emphasizing results for those who were old enough at exposure to have been followed up for a major part of their lives by now, and stressing the speculative aspects of conclusions about those exposed as children. Combining these results, and brief discussion of other uncertainties itemized above, comment is made on the evolution of risk estimates over the past 15 years. (author)

  5. Transmission-less attenuation estimation from time-of-flight PET histo-images using consistency equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yusheng; Defrise, Michel; Metzler, Scott D.; Matej, Samuel

    2015-08-01

    In positron emission tomography (PET) imaging, attenuation correction with accurate attenuation estimation is crucial for quantitative patient studies. Recent research showed that the attenuation sinogram can be determined up to a scaling constant utilizing the time-of-flight information. The TOF-PET data can be naturally and efficiently stored in a histo-image without information loss, and the radioactive tracer distribution can be efficiently reconstructed using the DIRECT approaches. In this paper, we explore transmission-less attenuation estimation from TOF-PET histo-images. We first present the TOF-PET histo-image formation and the consistency equations in the histo-image parameterization, then we derive a least-squares solution for estimating the directional derivatives of the attenuation factors from the measured emission histo-images. Finally, we present a fast solver to estimate the attenuation factors from their directional derivatives using the discrete sine transform and fast Fourier transform while considering the boundary conditions. We find that the attenuation histo-images can be uniquely determined from the TOF-PET histo-images by considering boundary conditions. Since the estimate of the attenuation directional derivatives can be inaccurate for LORs tangent to the patient boundary, external sources, e.g. a ring or annulus source, might be needed to give an accurate estimate of the attenuation gradient for such LORs. The attenuation estimation from TOF-PET emission histo-images is demonstrated using simulated 2D TOF-PET data.

  6. Estimation of health risks from radiation exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randolph, M.L.

    1983-08-01

    An informal presentation is given of the cancer and genetic risks from exposures to ionizing radiations. The risks from plausible radiation exposures are shown to be comparable to other commonly encountered risks.

  7. Estimation of health risks from radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Randolph, M.L.

    1983-08-01

    An informal presentation is given of the cancer and genetic risks from exposures to ionizing radiations. The risks from plausible radiation exposures are shown to be comparable to other commonly encountered risks

  8. Review of the current status of radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, M.W.; Little, M.P.

    1988-10-01

    This report reviews the current status of radiation risk estimation for low linear energy transfer radiation. Recent statements by various national and international organisations regarding risk estimates are critically discussed. The recently published revised population risk estimates from the study of Japanese bomb survivors are also reviewed and used with some unpublished data from Japan to calculate risk figures for a general work force. (author)

  9. An application of extreme value theory in estimating liquidity risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Benito Muela

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The last global financial crisis (2007–2008 has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR as a measure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into estimations of market risk by adding the VaR of the spread to the risk price. The parametric model is the standard approach used to estimate liquidity risk. As this approach does not generate reliable VaR estimates, we propose estimating liquidity risk using more sophisticated models based on extreme value theory (EVT. We find that the approach based on conditional extreme value theory outperforms the standard approach in terms of accurate VaR estimates and the market risk capital requirements of the Basel Capital Accord.

  10. Toward a consistency cross-check of eddy covariance flux–based and biometric estimates of ecosystem carbon balance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luyssaert, S.; Reichstein, M.; Schulze, E.-D.

    2009-01-01

    Quantification of an ecosystem's carbon balance and its components is pivotal for understanding both ecosystem functioning and global cycling. Several methods are being applied in parallel to estimate the different components of the CO2 balance. However, different methods are subject to different...... sources of error. Therefore, it is necessary that site level component estimates are cross-checked against each other before being reported. Here we present a two-step approach for testing the accuracy and consistency of eddy covariance–based gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re...

  11. Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights

    OpenAIRE

    Pei Pei

    2010-01-01

    This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio VaR with estimation risk in an intrinsically multivariate framework. For the first time in the literature, it takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating the portfolio weights as well as that from estimating the multivariate dynamic model of asset returns make the existing methods in a univariate framew...

  12. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  13. BLACK HOLE MASS ESTIMATES BASED ON C IV ARE CONSISTENT WITH THOSE BASED ON THE BALMER LINES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Assef, R. J.; Denney, K. D.; Kochanek, C. S.; Peterson, B. M.; Kozlowski, S.; Dietrich, M.; Grier, C. J.; Khan, R. [Department of Astronomy, The Ohio State University, 140 W. 18th Ave., Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Ageorges, N.; Buschkamp, P.; Gemperlein, H.; Hofmann, R. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Extraterrestrische Physik, Giessenbachstr., D-85748 Garching (Germany); Barrows, R. S. [Arkansas Center for Space and Planetary Sciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701 (United States); Falco, E.; Kilic, M. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Feiz, C.; Germeroth, A. [Landessternwarte, ZAH, Koenigstuhl 12, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Juette, M.; Knierim, V. [Astron. Institut der Ruhr Univ. Bochum, Universitaetsstr. 150, D-44780 Bochum (Germany); Laun, W., E-mail: rjassef@astronomy.ohio-state.edu [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); and others

    2011-12-01

    Using a sample of high-redshift lensed quasars from the CASTLES project with observed-frame ultraviolet or optical and near-infrared spectra, we have searched for possible biases between supermassive black hole (BH) mass estimates based on the C IV, H{alpha}, and H{beta} broad emission lines. Our sample is based upon that of Greene, Peng, and Ludwig, expanded with new near-IR spectroscopic observations, consistently analyzed high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) optical spectra, and consistent continuum luminosity estimates at 5100 A. We find that BH mass estimates based on the full width at half-maximum (FWHM) of C IV show a systematic offset with respect to those obtained from the line dispersion, {sigma}{sub l}, of the same emission line, but not with those obtained from the FWHM of H{alpha} and H{beta}. The magnitude of the offset depends on the treatment of the He II and Fe II emission blended with C IV, but there is little scatter for any fixed measurement prescription. While we otherwise find no systematic offsets between C IV and Balmer line mass estimates, we do find that the residuals between them are strongly correlated with the ratio of the UV and optical continuum luminosities. This means that much of the dispersion in previous comparisons of C IV and H{beta} BH mass estimates are due to the continuum luminosities rather than to any properties of the lines. Removing this dependency reduces the scatter between the UV- and optical-based BH mass estimates by a factor of approximately two, from roughly 0.35 to 0.18 dex. The dispersion is smallest when comparing the C IV {sigma}{sub l} mass estimate, after removing the offset from the FWHM estimates, and either Balmer line mass estimate. The correlation with the continuum slope is likely due to a combination of reddening, host contamination, and object-dependent SED shapes. When we add additional heterogeneous measurements from the literature, the results are unchanged. Moreover, in a trial observation of a

  14. Panel data nonparametric estimation of production risk and risk preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    approaches for obtaining firm-specific measures of risk attitudes. We found that Polish dairy farmers are risk averse regarding production risk and price uncertainty. According to our results, Polish dairy farmers perceive the production risk as being more significant than the risk related to output price......We apply nonparametric panel data kernel regression to investigate production risk, out-put price uncertainty, and risk attitudes of Polish dairy farms based on a firm-level unbalanced panel data set that covers the period 2004–2010. We compare different model specifications and different...

  15. Estimation of mountain slope stability depending on ground consistency and slip-slide resistance changes on impact of dynamic forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayroyan, H. S.; Hayroyan, S. H.; Karapetyan, K. A.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, three types of clayish soils with different consistency and humidity properties and slip-slide resistance indexes are considered on impact of different cyclic shear stresses. The side-surface deformation charts are constructed on the basis of experimental data obtained testing cylindrical soil samples. It is shown that the fluctuation amplitude depends on time and the consistency index depends on the humidity condition in the soil inner contact and the connectivity coefficients. Consequently, each experiment is interpreted. The main result of this research is that it is necessary to make corrections in the currently active schemes of slip-hazardous slopes stability estimation, which is a crucial problem requiring ASAP solution.

  16. Consistent association of type 2 diabetes risk variants found in europeans in diverse racial and ethnic groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin M Waters

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available It has been recently hypothesized that many of the signals detected in genome-wide association studies (GWAS to T2D and other diseases, despite being observed to common variants, might in fact result from causal mutations that are rare. One prediction of this hypothesis is that the allelic associations should be population-specific, as the causal mutations arose after the migrations that established different populations around the world. We selected 19 common variants found to be reproducibly associated to T2D risk in European populations and studied them in a large multiethnic case-control study (6,142 cases and 7,403 controls among men and women from 5 racial/ethnic groups (European Americans, African Americans, Latinos, Japanese Americans, and Native Hawaiians. In analysis pooled across ethnic groups, the allelic associations were in the same direction as the original report for all 19 variants, and 14 of the 19 were significantly associated with risk. In summing the number of risk alleles for each individual, the per-allele associations were highly statistically significant (P<10(-4 and similar in all populations (odds ratios 1.09-1.12 except in Japanese Americans the estimated effect per allele was larger than in the other populations (1.20; P(het = 3.8×10(-4. We did not observe ethnic differences in the distribution of risk that would explain the increased prevalence of type 2 diabetes in these groups as compared to European Americans. The consistency of allelic associations in diverse racial/ethnic groups is not predicted under the hypothesis of Goldstein regarding "synthetic associations" of rare mutations in T2D.

  17. METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF PRACTICAL RADIOGENIC RISK ESTIMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Т. Gubin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical ratios were established according to the description of the calculation procedure for the values of the nominal risk coefficient given in the ICRP Recommendations 2007. It is shown that the lifetime radiogenic risk is a linear functional from the distribution of the dose in time with a multiplier descending with age. As a consequence, application of the nominal risk coefficient in the risk calculations is justified in the case when prolonged exposure is practically evenly distributed in time, and gives a significant deviation at a single exposure. When using the additive model of radiogenic risk proposed in the UNSCEAR Report 2006 for solid cancers, this factor is almost linearly decreasing with the age, which is convenient for its practical application.

  18. Radiation risk and its estimation for nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krueger, F.W.

    1979-01-01

    The level of knowledge achieved in estimating risks due to the operation of nuclear facilities is discussed. In this connection it is analyzed to what extent risk estimates may be used for establishing requirements for facilities and measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. At present, estimates of risks are subject to great uncertainties. However, the results attainable already permit to discern the causes of possible accidents and to develop effective measures for preventing such accidents. For the time being (and maybe in principle) risk estimation is possible only with more or less arbitrary premises. Within the foreseeable future, cost-benefit comparisons cannot compensate for discretionary decisions in establishing requirements for measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. In preparing such decisions based on experience, expert opinions, political and socio-economic reflections and views, comparison of the risk of novel technologies with existing ones or accepted risks may be a useful means. (author)

  19. A Combined Self-Consistent Method to Estimate the Effective Properties of Polypropylene/Calcium Carbonate Composites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongqiang Xiong

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, trying to avoid difficulty of application due to the irregular filler shapes in experiments, self-consistent and differential self-consistent methods were combined to obtain a decoupled equation. The combined method suggests a tenor γ independent of filler-contents being an important connection between high and low filler-contents. On one hand, the constant parameter can be calculated by Eshelby’s inclusion theory or the Mori–Tanaka method to predict effective properties of composites coinciding with its hypothesis. On the other hand, the parameter can be calculated with several experimental results to estimate the effective properties of prepared composites of other different contents. In addition, an evaluation index σ f ′ of the interactional strength between matrix and fillers is proposed based on experiments. In experiments, a hyper-dispersant was synthesized to prepare polypropylene/calcium carbonate (PP/CaCO3 composites up to 70 wt % of filler-content with dispersion, whose dosage was only 5 wt % of the CaCO3 contents. Based on several verifications, it is hoped that the combined self-consistent method is valid for other two-phase composites in experiments with the same application progress as in this work.

  20. A consistent NPMLE of the joint distribution function with competing risks data under the dependent masking and right-censoring model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiahui; Yu, Qiqing

    2016-01-01

    Dinse (Biometrics, 38:417-431, 1982) provides a special type of right-censored and masked competing risks data and proposes a non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) and a pseudo MLE of the joint distribution function [Formula: see text] with such data. However, their asymptotic properties have not been studied so far. Under the extention of either the conditional masking probability (CMP) model or the random partition masking (RPM) model (Yu and Li, J Nonparametr Stat 24:753-764, 2012), we show that (1) Dinse's estimators are consistent if [Formula: see text] takes on finitely many values and each point in the support set of [Formula: see text] can be observed; (2) if the failure time is continuous, the NPMLE is not uniquely determined, and the standard approach (which puts weights only on one element in each observed set) leads to an inconsistent NPMLE; (3) in general, Dinse's estimators are not consistent even under the discrete assumption; (4) we construct a consistent NPMLE. The consistency is given under a new model called dependent masking and right-censoring model. The CMP model and the RPM model are indeed special cases of the new model. We compare our estimator to Dinse's estimators through simulation and real data. Simulation study indicates that the consistent NPMLE is a good approximation to the underlying distribution for moderate sample sizes.

  1. Political risk in fair market value estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruy, H.J.; Hartsock, J.H.

    1996-01-01

    Political risk arises from unstable governments, commercial establishments and infrastructure as well as labor unrest. All these factors vary from country to country and from time to time. Banks and insurance companies quantify these risks, but they are reluctant to divulge their opinions for fear of alienating possible customers that have been assigned a high risk. An investment in a fixed property such as an oil and gas lease, concession or other mineral interest is subject to political risk. No one will deny that money to be received several years in the future has a greater value today in a country with a stable government, stable tax regime, a sound economy and reliable labor force than in a Third World country where a revolution is brewing. Even in stable countries, the risk of tax law changes, exorbitant environmental production regulations and cleanup costs may vary. How do these factors affect fair market value and how are these calculations made? An important consideration discussed in this paper is the treatment of capital investments

  2. The estimation of small probabilities and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalbfleisch, J.D.; Lawless, J.F.; MacKay, R.J.

    1982-01-01

    The primary contribution of statistics to risk assessment is in the estimation of probabilities. Frequently the probabilities in question are small, and their estimation is particularly difficult. The authors consider three examples illustrating some problems inherent in the estimation of small probabilities

  3. Estimation of extreme risk regions under multivariate regular variation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; de Haan, L.F.M.

    2011-01-01

    When considering d possibly dependent random variables, one is often interested in extreme risk regions, with very small probability p. We consider risk regions of the form {z ∈ Rd : f (z) ≤ β}, where f is the joint density and β a small number. Estimation of such an extreme risk region is difficult

  4. Probabilistic fuzzy systems in value-at-risk estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

    2009-01-01

    Value-at-risk (VaR) is a popular measure for quantifying the market risk that a financial institution faces into a single number. Owing to the complexity of financial markets, the risks associated with a portfolio varies over time. Consequently, advanced methods of VaR estimation use parametric

  5. Development of cancer risk estimates from epidemiologic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, E.W.

    1983-01-01

    Radiation risk estimates may be made for an increase in mortality from, or for an increase in incidence of, particular types of disease. For both endpoints, two numerical systems of risk expression are used: the absolute risk system (usually the excess deaths or cases per million persons per year per rad), and the relative risk system (usually excess deaths or cases per year per rad expressed as a percentage of those normally expected). Risks may be calculated for specific age groups or for a general population. An alternative in both risk systems is the estimation of cumulative of lifetime risk rather than annual risk (e.g. in excess deaths per million per rad over a specified long period including the remainder of lifespan). The derivation of both absolute and relative risks is illustrated by examples. The effects on risk estimates of latent period, follow-up time, age at exposure and age standardization within dose groups are illustrated. The dependence of the projected cumulative (lifetime) risk on the adoption of a constant absolute risk or constant relative risk is noted. The use of life-table data in the adjustment of cumulative risk for normal mortality following single or annual doses is briefly discussed

  6. Estimating Fire Risks at Industrial Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1999-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) has a wide variety of nuclear production facilities that include chemical processing facilities, machine shops, production reactors, and laboratories. Current safety documentation must be maintained for the nuclear facilities at SRS. Fire Risk Analyses (FRAs) are used to support the safety documentation basis. These FRAs present the frequency that specified radiological and chemical consequences will be exceeded. The consequence values are based on mechanistic models assuming specific fire protection features fail to function as designed

  7. Risk estimation for LCF crack initiation

    OpenAIRE

    Schmitz, Sebastian; Rollmann, Georg; Gottschalk, Hanno; Krause, Rolf

    2013-01-01

    An accurate risk assessment for fatigue damage is of vital importance for the design and service of today's turbomachinery components. We present an approach for quantifying the probability of crack initiation due to surface driven low-cycle fatigue (LCF). This approach is based on the theory of failure-time processes and takes inhomogeneous stress fields and size effects into account. The method has been implemented as a finite-element postprocessor which uses quadrature formulae of higher o...

  8. Epidemiological data and radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardis, E.

    2002-01-01

    The results of several major epidemiology studies on populations with particular exposure to ionizing radiation should become available during the first years of the 21. century. These studies are expected to provide answers to a number of questions concerning public health and radiation protection. Most of the populations concerned were accidentally exposed to radiation in ex-USSR or elsewhere or in a nuclear industrial context. The results will complete and test information on risk coming from studies among survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, particularly studies on the effects of low dose exposure and prolonged low-dose exposure, of different types of radiation, and environmental and host-related factors which could modify the risk of radiation-induced effects. These studies are thus important to assess the currently accepted scientific evidence on radiation protection for workers and the general population. In addition, supplementary information on radiation protection could be provided by formal comparisons and analyses combining data from populations with different types of exposure. Finally, in order to provide pertinent information for public health and radiation protection, future epidemiology studies should be targeted and designed to answer specific questions, concerning, for example, the risk for specific populations (children, patients, people with genetic predisposition). An integrated approach, combining epidemiology and studies on the mechanisms of radiation induction should provide particularly pertinent information. (author)

  9. Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

    1996-01-01

    Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

  10. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

  11. Combining ungrouped and grouped wildfire data to estimate fire risk

    KAUST Repository

    Hernandez-Magallanes, I.

    2013-10-11

    © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Frequently, models are required to combine information obtained from different data sources and on different scales. In this work, we are interested in estimating the risk of wildfire ignition in the USA for a particular time and location by merging two levels of data, namely, individual points and aggregate count of points into areas. The data for federal lands consist of the point location and time of each fire. Nonfederal fires are aggregated by county for a particular year. The probability model is based on the wildfire point process. Assuming a smooth intensity function, a locally weighted likelihood fit is used, which incorporates the group effect. A logit model is used under the assumption of the existence of a latent process, and fuel conditions are included as a covariate. The model assessment is based on a residual analysis, while the False Discovery Rate detects spatial patterns. A benefit of the proposed model is that there is no need of arbitrary aggregation of individual fires into counts. A map of predicted probability of ignition for the Midwest US in 1990 is included. The predicted ignition probabilities and the estimated total number of expected fires are required for the allocation of resources.

  12. Minimax estimation of qubit states with Bures risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Anirudh; Guţă, Mădălin

    2018-04-01

    The central problem of quantum statistics is to devise measurement schemes for the estimation of an unknown state, given an ensemble of n independent identically prepared systems. For locally quadratic loss functions, the risk of standard procedures has the usual scaling of 1/n. However, it has been noticed that for fidelity based metrics such as the Bures distance, the risk of conventional (non-adaptive) qubit tomography schemes scales as 1/\\sqrt{n} for states close to the boundary of the Bloch sphere. Several proposed estimators appear to improve this scaling, and our goal is to analyse the problem from the perspective of the maximum risk over all states. We propose qubit estimation strategies based on separate adaptive measurements, and collective measurements, that achieve 1/n scalings for the maximum Bures risk. The estimator involving local measurements uses a fixed fraction of the available resource n to estimate the Bloch vector direction; the length of the Bloch vector is then estimated from the remaining copies by measuring in the estimator eigenbasis. The estimator based on collective measurements uses local asymptotic normality techniques which allows us to derive upper and lower bounds to its maximum Bures risk. We also discuss how to construct a minimax optimal estimator in this setup. Finally, we consider quantum relative entropy and show that the risk of the estimator based on collective measurements achieves a rate O(n-1log n) under this loss function. Furthermore, we show that no estimator can achieve faster rates, in particular the ‘standard’ rate n ‑1.

  13. Estimating and comparing risks in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Llewellyn, Gareth

    1998-01-01

    The current position of power generation in UK is balanced. Recently 16 advanced gas cooled reactors are in operation. Privatisation of most power generation plants is done. Some trialing of environmental premia is performed. Environmental management is very strong. Nuclear power status in the UK is as follows: 16 Advanced gas cooled reactors, 1 Pressurised water reactor, Nuclear Electric/Scottish Nuclear in commercial operation; out of 18 Magnox reactors in operation 3 are decommissioned, 8 are due to stop operating before 2000. Non-nuclear fuel used are coal, oil, gas, hydropower. Besides carbon dioxide emissions emerging issue is rad waste disposal. This presentation deals with the strategic risk assessment in power generation sector

  14. An interim UK response to revised risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaver, P.F.; Bines, W.P.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the legal framework in place when the revised risk estimates were announced by the International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1987 and how an addition to that framework enabled the revised risk estimates to be taken into account when making decisions about radiation protection practice both at plant and individual worker level. It is suggested that this a may be an early example of the use of a constraint applied generically. (author)

  15. Local dark matter and dark energy as estimated on a scale of ~1 Mpc in a self-consistent way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernin, A. D.; Teerikorpi, P.; Valtonen, M. J.; Dolgachev, V. P.; Domozhilova, L. M.; Byrd, G. G.

    2009-12-01

    Context: Dark energy was first detected from large distances on gigaparsec scales. If it is vacuum energy (or Einstein's Λ), it should also exist in very local space. Here we discuss its measurement on megaparsec scales of the Local Group. Aims: We combine the modified Kahn-Woltjer method for the Milky Way-M 31 binary and the HST observations of the expansion flow around the Local Group in order to study in a self-consistent way and simultaneously the local density of dark energy and the dark matter mass contained within the Local Group. Methods: A theoretical model is used that accounts for the dynamical effects of dark energy on a scale of ~1 Mpc. Results: The local dark energy density is put into the range 0.8-3.7ρv (ρv is the globally measured density), and the Local Group mass lies within 3.1-5.8×1012 M⊙. The lower limit of the local dark energy density, about 4/5× the global value, is determined by the natural binding condition for the group binary and the maximal zero-gravity radius. The near coincidence of two values measured with independent methods on scales differing by ~1000 times is remarkable. The mass ~4×1012 M⊙ and the local dark energy density ~ρv are also consistent with the expansion flow close to the Local Group, within the standard cosmological model. Conclusions: One should take into account the dark energy in dynamical mass estimation methods for galaxy groups, including the virial theorem. Our analysis gives new strong evidence in favor of Einstein's idea of the universal antigravity described by the cosmological constant.

  16. Estimation of radiation risks at low dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-04-01

    The report presents a review of the effects caused by radiation in low doses, or at low dose rates. For the inheritable (or ''genetic''), as well as for the cancer producing effects of radiation, present evidence is consistent with: (a) a non-linear relationship between the frequency of at least some forms of these effects, with comparing frequencies caused by doses many times those received annually from natural sources, with those caused by lower doses; (b) a probably linear relationship, however, between dose and frequency of effects for dose rates in the region of that received from natural sources, or at several times this rate; (c) no evidence to indicate the existence of a threshold dose below which such effects are not produced, and a strong inference from the mode of action of radiation on cells at low dose rates that no such thresholds are likely to apply to the detrimental, cancer-producing or inheritable, effects resulting from unrepaired damage to single cells. 19 refs

  17. ICRP risk estimates - an alternative view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, K.Z.

    1987-01-01

    This criticism of the worth of the ICRP Main Commission spans 60 years, reviewed by a member of the Commission. Beginning in 1960 two serious radiation exposure problems (occupational exposure in uranium mines and population exposure from testing of nuclear weapons) came to their attention. One might have expected ICRP to be the first to try to reduce these exposures but it was conspicuous by its silence. In 1958 ICRP set limits of exposure for radiation workers and member of the public. Nineteen years later (1977) when it was realized that the risk of radiation induced cancer was ten to thirty times what it was perceived to be in 1958, ICRP might have been expected to recommend a major reduction in permissible exposure levels, but to the dismay of some it increased them. It was also a great disappointment when in 1977, levels of MPC of radionuclides in air, water and food were increased for a large fraction of the more dangerous radionuclides. The reactor accident at Chernobyl calls for a number of new ICRP recommendations. When can we expect them? (author)

  18. Gene-Environment Interplay in Internalizing Disorders: Consistent Findings across Six Environmental Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Brian M.; Dirago, Ana C.; Iacono, William G.; McGue, Matt

    2009-01-01

    Background: Behavior genetic methods can help to elucidate gene-environment (G-E) interplay in the development of internalizing (INT) disorders (i.e., major depression and anxiety disorders). To date, however, no study has conducted a comprehensive analysis examining multiple environmental risk factors with the purpose of delineating general…

  19. Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

    2017-08-01

    Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  1. Impact of microbial count distributions on human health risk estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ribeiro Duarte, Ana Sofia; Nauta, Maarten

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is influenced by the choice of the probability distribution used to describe pathogen concentrations, as this may eventually have a large effect on the distribution of doses at exposure. When fitting a probability distribution to microbial...... enumeration data, several factors may have an impact on the accuracy of that fit. Analysis of the best statistical fits of different distributions alone does not provide a clear indication of the impact in terms of risk estimates. Thus, in this study we focus on the impact of fitting microbial distributions...... on risk estimates, at two different concentration scenarios and at a range of prevalence levels. By using five different parametric distributions, we investigate whether different characteristics of a good fit are crucial for an accurate risk estimate. Among the factors studied are the importance...

  2. Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

  3. Estimating cancer risks to adults undergoing body CT examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huda, W.; He, W.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the study is to estimate cancer risks from the amount of radiation used to perform body computed tomography (CT) examination. The ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator was used to compute values of organ doses for adult body CT examinations. The radiation used to perform each examination was quantified by the dose-length product (DLP). Patient organ doses were converted into corresponding age and sex dependent cancer risks using data from BEIR VII. Results are presented for cancer risks per unit DLP and unit effective dose for 11 sensitive organs, as well as estimates of the contribution from 'other organs'. For patients who differ from a standard sized adult, correction factors based on the patient weight and antero-posterior dimension are provided to adjust organ doses and the corresponding risks. At constant incident radiation intensity, for CT examinations that include the chest, risks for females are markedly higher than those for males, whereas for examinations that include the pelvis, risks in males were slightly higher than those in females. In abdominal CT scans, risks for males and female patients are very similar. For abdominal CT scans, increasing the patient age from 20 to 80 resulted in a reduction in patient risks of nearly a factor of 5. The average cancer risk for chest/abdomen/pelvis CT examinations was ∼26 % higher than the cancer risk caused by 'sensitive organs'. Doses and radiation risks in 80 kg adults were ∼10 % lower than those in 70 kg patients. Cancer risks in body CT can be estimated from the examination DLP by accounting for sex, age, as well as patient physical characteristics. (authors)

  4. Perception of Climate Risk among Rural Farmers in Vietnam: Consistency within Households and with the Empirical Record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, Alison C; Anderson, C Leigh

    2017-03-01

    Rural farmers in Vietnamese communes perceive climate risk and potential impacts on livelihood within a complex context that may influence individual and household decisions. In a primary survey of 1,145 residents of the Thach Ha district of Ha Tinh province, we gathered data regarding perception about stability in climate, potential risks to livelihood, demographic characteristics, orientation toward risk, and interest in expanding economic activity. Temporal analysis of meteorological and economic indicator data forms an empirical basis for comparison with human perception. We ask the basic question: Are rural farmers' perceptions of climate consistent with the historical record and reproducible within households? We find that respondents do perceive climate anomalies, with some anchoring on recent extreme events as revealed by climate observational data, and further that spouses disproportionately share perceptions relative to randomly simulated pairings. To put climate-related risk perception in a larger context, we examine patterns across a range of risks to livelihood faced by farmers (livestock disease, pests, markets, health), using dimension reduction techniques. We find that our respondents distinguish among potential causes of low economic productivity, with substantial emphasis on climate-related impacts. They do not express uniform concern across risks, but rather average patterns reveal common modes and distinguish climate concern. Still, among those expressing concern about climate-related risks to livelihood we do not find an association with expressed intention to pursue changes in economic activity as a risk management response. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pere P Simarro

    Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

  6. Association between consistent purchase of anticonvulsants or lithium and suicide risk: a longitudinal cohort study from Denmark, 1995-2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eric G; Søndergård, Lars; Lopez, Ana Garcia; Andersen, Per Kragh; Kessing, Lars Vedel

    2009-10-01

    Prior studies suggest anticonvulsants purchasers may be at greater risk of suicide than lithium purchasers. Longitudinal, retrospective cohort study of all individuals in Denmark purchasing anticonvulsants (valproic acid, carbamazepine, oxcarbazepine or lamotrigine) (n=9952) or lithium (n=6693) from 1995-2001 who also purchased antipsychotics at least once (to select out nonpsychiatric anticonvulsant use). Poisson regression of suicides by medication purchased (anticonvulsants or lithium) was conducted, controlling for age, sex, and calendar year. Confounding by indication was addressed by restricting the comparison to individuals prescribed the same medication: individuals with minimal medication exposure (e.g., who purchased only a single prescription of anticonvulsants) were compared to those individuals with more consistent medication exposure (i.e., purchasing > or = 6 prescriptions of anticonvulsants). Demographics and frequency of anticonvulsant, lithium, or antipsychotic use were similar between lithium and anticonvulsant purchasers. Among patients who also purchased antipsychotic at least once during the study period, purchasing anticonvulsants more consistently (> or = 6 prescriptions) was associated with a substantial reduction in the risk of suicide (RR=0.22, 95% CI=0.11-0.42, panticonvulsant and consistent lithium purchasers were similar. Lack of information about diagnoses and potential confounders, as well as other covariates that may differ between minimal and consistent medication purchasers, are limitations to this study. In this longitudinal study of anticonvulsant purchasers likely to have psychiatric disorders, consistent anticonvulsant treatment was associated with decreased risk of completed suicide.

  7. A time consistent risk averse three-stage stochastic mixed integer optimization model for power generation capacity expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pisciella, P.; Vespucci, M.T.; Bertocchi, M.; Zigrino, S.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a multi-stage stochastic optimization model for the generation capacity expansion problem of a price-taker power producer. Uncertainties regarding the evolution of electricity prices and fuel costs play a major role in long term investment decisions, therefore the objective function represents a trade-off between expected profit and risk. The Conditional Value at Risk is the risk measure used and is defined by a nested formulation that guarantees time consistency in the multi-stage model. The proposed model allows one to determine a long term expansion plan which takes into account uncertainty, while the LCoE approach, currently used by decision makers, only allows one to determine which technology should be chosen for the next power plant to be built. A sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to the risk weighting factor and budget amount. - Highlights: • We propose a time consistent risk averse multi-stage model for capacity expansion. • We introduce a case study with uncertainty on electricity prices and fuel costs. • Increased budget moves the investment from gas towards renewables and then coal. • Increased risk aversion moves the investment from coal towards renewables. • Time inconsistency leads to a profit gap between planned and implemented policies.

  8. Estimation of cancer risks from radiotherapy of benign diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trott, K.R.; Kamprad, F.

    2006-01-01

    Background: The effective-dose method which was proposed by the ICRP (International Commission of Radiation Protection) for the estimation of risk to the general population from occupational or environmental, low-dose radiation exposure is not adequate for estimating the risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of malignant or nonmalignant diseases. Methods:The risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of benign diseases should be based on epidemiologic data directly derived from follow-up studies of patients who had been given radiotherapy for nonmalignant diseases in the past. Results: Risk factors were derived from epidemiologic studies of patients treated with irradiation for nonmalignant diseases to be used for selecting treatment options and optimizing treatment procedures. Conclusion: In most cases, cancer risks estimated by the effective-dose method may overestimate the true risks by one order of magnitude, yet in other cases even may underestimate it. The proposed method using organ-specific risk factors may be more suitable for treatment planning. (orig.)

  9. Risk estimates for the health effects of alpha radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, D.C.; McNeill, K.G.

    1981-09-01

    This report provides risk estimates for various health effects of alpha radiation. Human and animal data have been used to characterize the shapes of dose-response relations and the effects of various modifying factors, but quantitative risk estimates are based solely on human data: for lung cancer, on miners in the Colorado plateau, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, Ontario and Newfoundland; for bone and head cancers, on radium dial painters and radium-injected patients. Slopes of dose-response relations for lung cancer show a tendency to decrease with increasing dose. Linear extrapolation is unlikely to underestimate the excess risk at low doses by more than a factor of l.5. Under the linear cell-killing model, our best estimate

  10. Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

    2013-01-01

    Summary An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations. PMID:23914133

  11. Consistent dietary patterns identified from childhood to adulthood: the cardiovascular risk in Young Finns Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikkilä, V; Räsänen, L; Raitakari, O T; Pietinen, P; Viikari, J

    2005-06-01

    Dietary patterns are useful in nutritional epidemiology, providing a comprehensive alternative to the traditional approach based on single nutrients. The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study is a prospective cohort study with a 21-year follow-up. At baseline, detailed quantitative information on subjects' food consumption was obtained using a 48 h dietary recall method (n 1768, aged 3-18 years). The interviews were repeated after 6 and 21 years (n 1200 and n 1037, respectively). We conducted a principal component analysis to identify major dietary patterns at each study point. A set of two similar patterns was recognised throughout the study. Pattern 1 was positively correlated with consumption of traditional Finnish foods, such as rye, potatoes, milk, butter, sausages and coffee, and negatively correlated with fruit, berries and dairy products other than milk. Pattern 1 type of diet was more common among male subjects, smokers and those living in rural areas. Pattern 2, predominant among female subjects, non-smokers and in urban areas, was characterised by more health-conscious food choices such as vegetables, legumes and nuts, tea, rye, cheese and other dairy products, and also by consumption of alcoholic beverages. Tracking of the pattern scores was observed, particularly among subjects who were adolescents at baseline. Of those originally belonging to the uppermost quintile of pattern 1 and 2 scores, 41 and 38 % respectively, persisted in the same quintile 21 years later. Our results suggest that food behaviour and concrete food choices are established already in childhood or adolescence and may significantly track into adulthood.

  12. Current estimates of radiation risks and implications for dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.H.

    1989-01-01

    The publication of the 1988 report of UNSCEAR represents a major step forward in that there is an international consensus on the estimation of risk from exposure to ionising radiation. The estimates of fatal cancers in the UNSCEAR report are up to 4 times the values in the 1977 review. This paper will describe the reasons for the increase, the remaining uncertainties and the implications for dose limits in occupational and public exposure. (author)

  13. Estimation of risks to humans following intake of plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolphin, G.W.

    1979-01-01

    The lung cancer in humans induced by plutonium intake usually starts in bronchial epithelium. The main types of lung cancer are epidermoid or squamous cell carcinoma, small cell anaplastic carcinoma, carcinoid types and bronchio-loalveolar cell carcinoma. The data on cancer in the patients given intravascular injections of Thorotrast are the only source of data from which risk estimates can be made for liver cancer. In the beagles injected with plutonium citrate, the only type of liver tumors observed in cholangiosarcoma, and if this were the case for humans, then the appropriate risk estimate is 3 times lower in human patients. Bone sarcoma and the cancer of the epithelial surfaces close to bones have been reported extensively in workers and patients exposed to radium-226 and radium-224. In the case of plutonium, it is assumed for the purpose of risk estimates that the cancer of the epithelial surfaces near bones does not occur. Plutonium passes through guts following ingestion or following the clearance of particles initially deposited in respiratory tracts. In the case of all long-lived radionuclides, lower large intestines are the region which receive the greatest dose from the activity passing through guts. It is assumed that plutonium accumulates in bone marrows through the action of macrophages engulfing the plutonium resorbed from bone surfaces. The main uncertainty in estimating the annual limit of intake probably lies in the metabolic and dosimetric models, and to a lesser extent, in the estimate of risk. (Yamashita, S.)

  14. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  15. Psychological impact of providing women with personalised 10-year breast cancer risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, David P; Southworth, Jake; Howell, Anthony; Harvie, Michelle; Stavrinos, Paula; Watterson, Donna; Sampson, Sarah; Evans, D Gareth; Donnelly, Louise S

    2018-05-08

    The Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening (PROCAS) study estimated 10-year breast cancer risk for 53,596 women attending NHS Breast Screening Programme. The present study, nested within the PROCAS study, aimed to assess the psychological impact of receiving breast cancer risk estimates, based on: (a) the Tyrer-Cuzick (T-C) algorithm including breast density or (b) T-C including breast density plus single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), versus (c) comparison women awaiting results. A sample of 2138 women from the PROCAS study was stratified by testing groups: T-C only, T-C(+SNPs) and comparison women; and by 10-year risk estimates received: 'moderate' (5-7.99%), 'average' (2-4.99%) or 'below average' (<1.99%) risk. Postal questionnaires were returned by 765 (36%) women. Overall state anxiety and cancer worry were low, and similar for women in T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups. Women in both T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups showed lower-state anxiety but slightly higher cancer worry than comparison women awaiting results. Risk information had no consistent effects on intentions to change behaviour. Most women were satisfied with information provided. There was considerable variation in understanding. No major harms of providing women with 10-year breast cancer risk estimates were detected. Research to establish the feasibility of risk-stratified breast screening is warranted.

  16. The complex model of risk and progression of AMD estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Akopyan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to develop a method and a statistical model to estimate individual risk of AMD and the risk for progression to advanced AMD using clinical and genetic risk factors.Methods: A statistical risk assessment model was developed using stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. to estimate the population differences in the prevalence of allelic variants of genes and for the development of models adapted to the population of Moscow region genotyping and assessment of the influence of other risk factors was performed in two groups: patients with differ- ent stages of AMD (n = 74, and control group (n = 116. Genetic risk factors included in the study: polymorphisms in the complement system genes (C3 and CFH, genes at 10q26 locus (ARMS2 and HtRA1, polymorphism in the mitochondrial gene Mt-ND2. Clinical risk factors included in the study: age, gender, high body mass index, smoking history.Results: A comprehensive analysis of genetic and clinical risk factors for AMD in the study group was performed. Compiled statis- tical model assessment of individual risk of AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.5%, AUC = 0.76. Risk factors of late AMD, compiled a statistical model describing the probability of late AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.3%, AUC = 0.73. the developed system allows determining the most likely version of the current late AMD: dry or wet.Conclusion: the developed test system and the mathematical algorhythm for determining the risk of AMD, risk of progression to advanced AMD have fair diagnostic informative and promising for use in clinical practice.

  17. Summary of the BEIR V committee's estimates of genetic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grahn, D.

    1990-01-01

    The Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR V) was constituted in late 1986 to conduct a comprehensive review of the biological effects of ionizing radiations focusing on information reported since the conclusion of the 1980 BEIR study, and to provide new estimates of the risks of genetic and somatic effects in humans due to low-level exposures of ionizing radiation. The Committee preferred the doubling-dose method of genetic risk estimation over the direct method. Data from animal (mouse) studies provide a median value of 100 to 114 cGy for long-term low dose rate exposure doubling doses. These values are lower than the median from human studies. The BEIR Committee believed that a doubling dose of 100 cGy would be a prudent value leading to conservative estimates. The estimated risks themselves are not much different from those generated by previous BEIR committees, UNSCEAR, and other published estimates. The Committee estimates that between 100 and 200 added cases per million live births will be observed at genetic equilibrium if the population is exposed each generation to a dose of 0.01 Sv (1 rem). Nearly half ware attributed to clinically mild dominant defects, and the balance to congenital abnormalities. (L.L.) (2 tabs.)

  18. Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through comparative analysis of two alternative scenarios identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated fixed low-level waste currently stored at INEL. These two scenarios, the Base Case and the Delay Case, are realistic and based on actual data, but are not intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at INEL. Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios using the System Cost Model; resulting costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings for the Delay Case, cumulative life cycle costs eventually become much higher than costs for the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate the longer Delay Case schedule. Life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a new risk analysis method adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Relative risk of the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most economically

  19. Expanding the Reach of Participatory Risk Management: Testing an Online Decision-Aiding Framework for Informing Internally Consistent Choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessette, Douglas L; Campbell-Arvai, Victoria; Arvai, Joseph

    2016-05-01

    This article presents research aimed at developing and testing an online, multistakeholder decision-aiding framework for informing multiattribute risk management choices associated with energy development and climate change. The framework was designed to provide necessary background information and facilitate internally consistent choices, or choices that are in line with users' prioritized objectives. In order to test different components of the decision-aiding framework, a six-part, 2 × 2 × 2 factorial experiment was conducted, yielding eight treatment scenarios. The three factors included: (1) whether or not users could construct their own alternatives; (2) the level of detail regarding the composition of alternatives users would evaluate; and (3) the way in which a final choice between users' own constructed (or highest-ranked) portfolio and an internally consistent portfolio was presented. Participants' self-reports revealed the framework was easy to use and providing an opportunity to develop one's own risk-management alternatives (Factor 1) led to the highest knowledge gains. Empirical measures showed the internal consistency of users' decisions across all treatments to be lower than expected and confirmed that providing information about alternatives' composition (Factor 2) resulted in the least internally consistent choices. At the same time, those users who did not develop their own alternatives and were not shown detailed information about the composition of alternatives believed their choices to be the most internally consistent. These results raise concerns about how the amount of information provided and the ability to construct alternatives may inversely affect users' real and perceived internal consistency. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Revision of risk estimates and implications for dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.H.

    1989-01-01

    It has been apparent for some time that our estimates of the risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation must be increased above those values reported by UNSCEAR in 1977 an dused by ICRP to form their present recommendations. NRPB foresaw some of these changes and introduced interim advice within the UK to restrict exposures of wordkers and members of the public to levels below the existing limits. Since that advice was given, UNSCEAR has produced a 1988 report reviewing human data to provide new estimates of risks associated with exposure at high doses and high doserates. These risk figures are up to 4 times higher than when UNSCEAR reported in 1977. In this paper, the reasons for the changes in the estimates of risk will be described and the current NRPB guidelines for risk factors for protection purposes will be presented. The implications of these new risk factors for the setting of dose limits will then be discussed. (Author). 10 refs.; 2 tabs

  1. Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yoo, Ho Sik [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-10-15

    Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks.

  2. Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2008-01-01

    Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks

  3. An overview of coefficient alpha and a reliability matrix for estimating adequacy of internal consistency coefficients with psychological research measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponterotto, Joseph G; Ruckdeschel, Daniel E

    2007-12-01

    The present article addresses issues in reliability assessment that are often neglected in psychological research such as acceptable levels of internal consistency for research purposes, factors affecting the magnitude of coefficient alpha (alpha), and considerations for interpreting alpha within the research context. A new reliability matrix anchored in classical test theory is introduced to help researchers judge adequacy of internal consistency coefficients with research measures. Guidelines and cautions in applying the matrix are provided.

  4. Estimation of Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkis Vicente Sánchez

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: diabetes mellitus accelerates atherosclerotic changes throughout the vascular tree and consequently increases the risk of developing fatal acute events. Objective: to estimate the global cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: a cross-sectional study of a series of type 2 diabetic patients from the People's Council of Constancia, Abreus municipality, Cienfuegos province was conducted from July to December 2012. The universe comprised the 180 people with diabetes in the area. Variables studied were: age, sex, body mass index, nutritional assessment, blood pressure, toxic habits, associated chronic diseases, blood levels of glucose, lipids (total cholesterol and triglycerides and microalbuminuria. World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension prediction charts specific to the region of the Americas, in which Cuba is included, were used to estimate the cardiovascular risk. Results: mean age was 61.63 years and females predominated. Relevant risk factors were hypertension followed by obesity, smoking and dyslipidemia. Mean body mass index was 27.66kg/m2; waist circumference was 94.45 cm in women and 96.86 cm in men. Thirty point six percent had more than two uncontrolled risk factors and 28.3 % of the total presented a high to very high cardiovascular risk. Conclusions: cardiovascular risk prediction charts are helpful tools for making clinical decisions, but their interpretation must be flexible and allow the intervention of clinical reasoning.

  5. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks

  6. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

  7. Biomechanical Indices for Rupture Risk Estimation in Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leemans, Eva L.; Willems, Tineke P.; van der Laan, Maarten J.; Slump, Cornelis H.; Zeebregts, Clark J.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To review the use of biomechanical indices for the estimation of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture risk, emphasizing their potential use in a clinical setting. Methods: A search of the PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Compendex databases was made up to June 2015 to identify articles

  8. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  9. Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

  10. Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  11. Occupational and consumer risk estimates for nanoparticles emitted by laser printers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haenninen, Otto; Brueske-Hohlfeld, Irene; Loh, Miranda; Stoeger, Tobias; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Schmid, Otmar; Peters, Annette

    2010-01-01

    Several studies have reported laser printers as significant sources of nanosized particles ( -1 ; particle number 1.1-3.1 x 10 9 d -1 ) were estimated to correspond to 4-13 (mass) or 12-34 (number) deaths per million persons exposed on the basis of epidemiological risk estimates for ambient particles. These risks are higher than the generally used definition of acceptable risk of 1 x 10 -6 , but substantially lower than the estimated risks due to ambient particles. Toxicological studies on ambient particles revealed consistent values for lowest observed effect levels (LOELs) which were converted into equivalent daily uptakes using allometric scaling. These LOEL uptakes were by a factor of about 330-1,000 (mass) and 1,000-2,500 (particle surface area) higher than estimated uptakes from printers. This toxicological assessment would indicate no significant health risks due to printer particles. Finally, our study suggests that particle number (not mass) and mass (not surface area) are the most conservative risk metrics for the epidemiological and toxicological risks presented here, respectively.

  12. A Theoretically Consistent Method for Minimum Mean-Square Error Estimation of Mel-Frequency Cepstral Features

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jesper; Tan, Zheng-Hua

    2014-01-01

    We propose a method for minimum mean-square error (MMSE) estimation of mel-frequency cepstral features for noise robust automatic speech recognition (ASR). The method is based on a minimum number of well-established statistical assumptions; no assumptions are made which are inconsistent with others....... The strength of the proposed method is that it allows MMSE estimation of mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC's), cepstral mean-subtracted MFCC's (CMS-MFCC's), velocity, and acceleration coefficients. Furthermore, the method is easily modified to take into account other compressive non-linearities than...... the logarithmic which is usually used for MFCC computation. The proposed method shows estimation performance which is identical to or better than state-of-the-art methods. It further shows comparable ASR performance, where the advantage of being able to use mel-frequency speech features based on a power non...

  13. Neoplastic potential of gastric irradiation. IV. Risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griem, M.L.; Justman, J.; Weiss, L.

    1984-01-01

    No significant tumor increase was found in the initial analysis of patients irradiated for peptic ulcer and followed through 1962. A preliminary study was undertaken 22 years later to estimate the risk of cancer due to gastric irradiation for peptic ulcer disease. A population of 2,049 irradiated patients and 763 medically managed patients has been identified. A relative risk of 3.7 was found for stomach cancer and an initial risk estimate of 5.5 x 10(-6) excess stomach cancers per person rad was calculated. A more complete follow-up is in progress to further elucidate this observation and decrease the ascertainment bias; however, preliminary data are in agreement with the Japanese atomic bomb reports

  14. Best-Estimates in Bond Markets with Reinvestment Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne MacKay

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The concept of best-estimate, prescribed by regulators to value insurance liabilities for accounting and solvency purposes, has recently been discussed extensively in the industry and related academic literature. To differentiate hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks in a general case, recent literature defines best-estimates using orthogonal projections of a claim on the space of replicable payoffs. In this paper, we apply this concept of best-estimate to long-maturity claims in a market with reinvestment risk, since in this case the total liability cannot easily be separated into hedgeable and non-hedgeable parts. We assume that a limited number of short-maturity bonds are traded, and derive the best-estimate price of bonds with longer maturities, thus obtaining a best-estimate yield curve. We therefore use the multifactor Vasiˇcek model and derive within this framework closed-form expressions for the best-estimate prices of long-term bonds.

  15. Toward a consistency cross-check of eddy covariance flux-based and biometric estimates of ecosystem carbon balance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luyssaert, S.; Reichstein, M.; Schulze, E.D.; Janssens, I.A.; Law, B.E.; Papale, D.; Dragoni, D.; Goulden, M.L.; Granier, A.; Kutch, W.L.; Linder, S.; Matteucci, G.; Moors, E.J.; Munger, J.W.; Pilegaard, K.; Saunders, M.; Falge, E.M.

    2009-01-01

    Quantification of an ecosystem's carbon balance and its components is pivotal for understanding both ecosystem functioning and global cycling. Several methods are being applied in parallel to estimate the different components of the CO2 balance. However, different methods are subject to different

  16. The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luis, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)

  17. A sample design for globally consistent biomass estimation using lidar data from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sean P. Healey; Paul L. Patterson; Sassan S. Saatchi; Michael A. Lefsky; Andrew J. Lister; Elizabeth A. Freeman

    2012-01-01

    Lidar height data collected by the Geosciences Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) from 2002 to 2008 has the potential to form the basis of a globally consistent sample-based inventory of forest biomass. GLAS lidar return data were collected globally in spatially discrete full waveform "shots," which have been shown to be strongly correlated with aboveground forest...

  18. Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, D.R.

    1980-01-01

    Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes

  19. Model dependencies of risk aversion and working interest estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    Working interest, W, and risk adjusted value, RAV, are evaluated using both Cozzolino's formula for exponential dependence of risk aversion and also for a hyperbolic tangent dependence. In addition, the general method is given of constructing an RAV formula for any functional choice of risk aversion dependence. Two examples are given to illustrate how the model dependencies influence choices of working interest and risk adjusted value depending on whether the expected value of the project is positive or negative. In general the Cozzolino formula provides a more conservative position for risk than does the hyperbolic tangent formula, reflecting the difference in corporate attitudes to risk aversion. The commonly used Cozzolino formula is shown to have simple exact arithmetic expressions for maximum working interest and maximum RAV; the hyperbolic tangent formula has approximate analytic expressions. Both formulae also yield approximate analytical expressions for the working interest yielding a risk neutral RAV of zero. These arithmetic results are useful for making quick estimates of working interest ranges and risk adjusted values. (Author)

  20. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section...

  1. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  2. Methods for estimating risks to nuclear power plants from shipping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, D.H.; Hartman, M.G.; Robbins, T.R.

    1975-01-01

    Nuclear power plants sited on land near shipping lanes or offshore can be exposed to potential risks if there is nearby ship or barge traffic which involves the transport of hazardous cargo. Methods that have been developed for estimating the degree of risk are summarized. Of concern are any accidents which could lead to a release or spill of the hazardous cargo, or to an explosion. A probability of occurrence of the order of 10 -7 per year is a general guideline which has been used to judge whether or not the risk from hazards created by accidents is acceptable. This guideline has been followed in the risk assessment discussed in this paper. 19 references

  3. Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

    2017-02-01

    The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

  4. Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 2. Risk estimates of individuals from x-ray diagnosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T; Noda, Y; Iwai, K; Tateno, Y [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Nishizawa, K

    1981-01-01

    The risks of genetic, leukemia and malignant diseases from medical X-ray diagnostic examinations were estimated using the frequency of radiographic and fluoroscopic exposures per diagnostic examination, child expectancy, leukemia and malignancy significant factors, and using a weighting factor determined on the basis of data concerning the cancer mortality among atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki and of a recommendation of International Commission of Radiological Protection. The organ or tissue doses with respect to the stochastic risks were determined with ionization chambers and thermoluminescent dosimeters placed at the positions of the organs or tissues in a RANDO woman phantom which was exposed to diagnostic X-rays according to technical factors of typical radiographic and fluoroscopic examinations obtained from a nationwide survey. The resultant risks by age-group and type of radiographic and fluoroscopic examination are tabulated in terms of risk level of 10/sup -6/. In general, the total risk defined as the sum of genetic, leukemia and malignant risks was a high value for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs involving barium meal and barium enema. For example, the total risk for young age-group was 100 to 200 x 10/sup -6/ for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk from the chest radiography was lower value as compared with the risk from the X-ray diagnosis of other organs or tissues. On the contrary, the risk from the chest tomography was comparable to the risk from the diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk decreased with increasing of age for every X-ray diagnostic examination.

  5. Radiation-Induced Second Cancer Risk Estimates From Radionuclide Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarz, Bryan; Besemer, Abigail

    2017-09-01

    The use of radionuclide therapy in the clinical setting is expected to increase significantly over the next decade. There is an important need to understand the radiation-induced second cancer risk associated with these procedures. In this study the radiation-induced cancer risk in five radionuclide therapy patients was investigated. These patients underwent serial SPECT imaging scans following injection as part of a clinical trial testing the efficacy of a 131Iodine-labeled radiopharmaceutical. Using these datasets the committed absorbed doses to multiple sensitive structures were calculated using RAPID, which is a novel Monte Carlo-based 3D dosimetry platform developed for personalized dosimetry. The excess relative risk (ERR) for radiation-induced cancer in these structures was then derived from these dose estimates following the recommendations set forth in the BEIR VII report. The radiation-induced leukemia ERR was highest among all sites considered reaching a maximum value of approximately 4.5. The radiation-induced cancer risk in the kidneys, liver and spleen ranged between 0.3 and 1.3. The lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were also calculated, which ranged from 30 to 1700 cancers per 100,000 persons and were highest for leukemia and the liver for both males and females followed by radiation-induced spleen and kidney cancer. The risks associated with radionuclide therapy are similar to the risk associated with external beam radiation therapy.

  6. A Novel Degradation Estimation Method for a Hybrid Energy Storage System Consisting of Battery and Double-Layer Capacitor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanbin Yu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new method for battery degradation estimation using a power-energy (PE function in a battery/ultracapacitor hybrid energy storage system (HESS, and the integrated optimization which concerns both parameters matching and control for HESS has been done as well. A semiactive topology of HESS with double-layer capacitor (EDLC coupled directly with DC-link is adopted for a hybrid electric city bus (HECB. In the purpose of presenting the quantitative relationship between system parameters and battery serving life, the data during a 37-minute driving cycle has been collected and decomposed into discharging/charging fragments firstly, and then the optimal control strategy which is supposed to maximally use the available EDLC energy is presented to decompose the power between battery and EDLC. Furthermore, based on a battery degradation model, the conversion of power demand by PE function and PE matrix is applied to evaluate the relationship between the available energy stored in HESS and the serving life of battery pack. Therefore, according to the approach which could decouple parameters matching and optimal control of the HESS, the process of battery degradation and its serving life estimation for HESS has been summed up.

  7. Estimating Risk and Return Combinations for New Derivatives Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Bona

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Active funds are typically managed by placing bets against a well defined passive bench-mark. In this context, when examining the launching of a new actively managed fund with a target expected excess rate of return relative to the benchmark equal to µ, asset managers face the problem of estimating the risk σ of excess rates of return. This estimate is critical to examine whether the product is commercially feasible and to define risk limits for the manager, if the product is launched. This paper proceeds to examine the solution to this problem assuming an especial form of the binomial model, in the context of the market timing structure advanced by Merton (1981. The paper shows that two variables are relevant for the solution of the proposed problem. The first, and the most relevant, is the skill level of the manager. A ore skilled manager is able to operate a less risky product with the same target excess rate of return µ. The second relevant variable is the trade-off between risk and return determined by existing investment opportunities in the market. The smaller the increases in risk exposure required to obtain an increase in excess returns, the less risky the product will be After solving the problem under specific assumptions, the paper proceeds to test empirically their validity using a representative sample of hedge funds in the Brazilian market. The empirical results strongly support the validity of the required assumptions.

  8. Uncertainties in fatal cancer risk estimates used in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    1999-01-01

    Although ICRP and NCRP had not described the details of uncertainties in cancer risk estimates in radiation protection, NCRP, in 1997, firstly reported the results of uncertainty analysis (NCRP No.126) and which is summarized in this paper. The NCRP report pointed out that there are following five factors which uncertainty possessing: uncertainty in epidemiological studies, in dose assessment, in transforming the estimates to risk assessment, in risk prediction and in extrapolation to the low dose/dose rate. These individual factors were analyzed statistically to obtain the relationship between the probability of cancer death in the US population and life time risk coefficient (% per Sv), which showed that, for the latter, the mean value was 3.99 x 10 -2 /Sv, median, 3.38 x 10 -2 /Sv, GSD (geometrical standard deviation), 1.83 x 10 -2 /Sv and 95% confidential limit, 1.2-8.84 x 10 -2 /Sv. The mean value was smaller than that of ICRP recommendation (5 x 10 -2 /Sv), indicating that the value has the uncertainty factor of 2.5-3. Moreover, the most important factor was shown to be the uncertainty in DDREF (dose/dose rate reduction factor). (K.H.)

  9. Estimating pediatric general anesthesia exposure: Quantifying duration and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartels, Devan Darby; McCann, Mary Ellen; Davidson, Andrew J; Polaner, David M; Whitlock, Elizabeth L; Bateman, Brian T

    2018-05-02

    Understanding the duration of pediatric general anesthesia exposure in contemporary practice is important for identifying groups at risk for long general anesthesia exposures and designing trials examining associations between general anesthesia exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis to estimate pediatric general anesthesia exposure duration during 2010-2015 using the National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry. A total of 1 548 021 pediatric general anesthetics were included. Median general anesthesia duration was 57 minutes (IQR: 28-86) with 90th percentile 145 minutes. Children aged 3 hours. High ASA physical status and care at a university hospital were associated with longer exposure times. While the vast majority (94%) of children undergoing general anesthesia are exposed for risk for longer exposures. These findings may help guide the design of future trials aimed at understanding neurodevelopmental impact of prolonged exposure in these high-risk groups. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Estimating the risk of cardio vascular diseases among pakistani diabetics using uk pds risk engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moazzam, A.; Amer, J.

    2015-01-01

    The concept of risk estimation of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is helpful for clinician to identifying high risk populations for their effective treatment. Latest studies recommended only initiating cardio-protective treatment in diabetic patients based on personalized CHD risk estimates so as to reduce undue harm from overly aggressive risk factor modification. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UK PDS) Risk Engine is a widely used tool to assess the risk of Cardio Vascular diseases (CVD) in diabetics. The literature search so far did not reveal any study of risk assessment among Pakistani Diabetics. Methods: This descriptive study is based on the data of 470 type-2 diabetics seen in Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Services Institute of Medical Sciences, Lahore during 2011. The data of these 470 patients was analyzed through UKPDS Risk Engine. CHD risk was calculated. Results: The 10 years risk of CHD, fatal CHD, stroke and fatal stroke was 9.4%, 4.4%, 1.7% and 0.2% respectively. Conclusions: The present study show a lower risk of CVD occurring among Pakistani diabetics as compared to studies from western countries. (author)

  11. Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. te Linde

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine basin. To optimize spatial planning and flood management measures, studies are needed that quantify future flood risks and estimate their uncertainties. In this paper, we estimated the current and future fluvial flood risk in 2030 for the entire Rhine basin in a scenario study. The change in value at risk is based on two land-use projections derived from a land-use model representing two different socio-economic scenarios. Potential damage was calculated by a damage model, and changes in flood probabilities were derived from two climate scenarios and hydrological modeling. We aggregated the results into seven sections along the Rhine. It was found that the annual expected damage in the Rhine basin may increase by between 54% and 230%, of which the major part (~ three-quarters can be accounted for by climate change. The highest current potential damage can be found in the Netherlands (110 billion €, compared with the second (80 billion € and third (62 billion € highest values in two areas in Germany. Results further show that the area with the highest fluvial flood risk is located in the Lower Rhine in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, and not in the Netherlands, as is often perceived. This is mainly due to the higher flood protection standards in the Netherlands as compared to Germany.

  12. Estimating ages of white-tailed deer: Age and sex patterns of error using tooth wear-and-replacement and consistency of cementum annuli

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Michael D.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Beissel, Thomas; Richards, Bryan J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

    2014-01-01

    The age structure of harvested animals provides the basis for many demographic analyses. Ages of harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and other ungulates often are estimated by evaluating replacement and wear patterns of teeth, which is subjective and error-prone. Few previous studies however, examined age- and sex-specific error rates. Counting cementum annuli of incisors is an alternative, more accurate method of estimating age, but factors that influence consistency of cementum annuli counts are poorly known. We estimated age of 1,261 adult (≥1.5 yr old) white-tailed deer harvested in Wisconsin and Illinois (USA; 2005–2008) using both wear-and-replacement and cementum annuli. We compared cementum annuli with wear-and-replacement estimates to assess misclassification rates by sex and age. Wear-and-replacement for estimating ages of white-tailed deer resulted in substantial misclassification compared with cementum annuli. Age classes of females were consistently underestimated, while those of males were underestimated for younger age classes but overestimated for older age classes. Misclassification resulted in an impression of a younger age-structure than actually was the case. Additionally, we obtained paired age-estimates from cementum annuli for 295 deer. Consistency of paired cementum annuli age-estimates decreased with age, was lower in females than males, and decreased as age estimates became less certain. Our results indicated that errors in the wear-and-replacement techniques are substantial and could impact demographic analyses that use age-structure information. 

  13. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  14. Estimating twin concordance for bivariate competing risks twin data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Holst, Klaus K.; Hjelmborg, Jacob B.

    2014-01-01

    For twin time-to-event data, we consider different concordance probabilities, such as the casewise concordance that are routinely computed as a measure of the lifetime dependence/correlation for specific diseases. The concordance probability here is the probability that both twins have experience...... events with the competing risk death. We thus aim to quantify the degree of dependence through the casewise concordance function and show a significant genetic component...... the event of interest. Under the assumption that both twins are censored at the same time, we show how to estimate this probability in the presence of right censoring, and as a consequence, we can then estimate the casewise twin concordance. In addition, we can model the magnitude of within pair dependence...... over time, and covariates may be further influential on the marginal risk and dependence structure. We establish the estimators large sample properties and suggest various tests, for example, for inferring familial influence. The method is demonstrated and motivated by specific twin data on cancer...

  15. Estimation of unit risk for coke oven emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moolgavkar, S.H.; Luebeck, E.G.; Anderson, E.L.

    1998-01-01

    In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 microg/m 3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 x 10 -4 . This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 x 10 -4 with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 x 10 -4 --1.8 x 10 -4

  16. Estimation of foetus risk from x-ray pelvimetric examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iba, Shozo; Sato, Kazuichi

    1983-01-01

    X-ray pelvimetric examinations are carried out for the purpose of diagnosing the cephalo pelvic disproportion at terminal pregnancy and they are still an excellent method, being performed more often than other examinations. However the invitable fetal exposure is considered to be a significant dose and makes an estimation of stochastic fetal risk related to x-ray exposure and to investigate the methods of dose reduction. As the methods judging the exposure dose actually made in the hospitals, a questionnarie regarding the main technical factors of an x-ray examination was given to 26 hospitals, including 5 university hospitals, in Kantou district, and the answeres were analyzed. The estimated risks involving genetics, leukemia and malignant diseases were dependent on the exposure dose which could be calculated on the basis of the technical factors obtained. Total risks on the foetus ranged widely from 1.27 x 10 rad -1 to 1.19 x 10 rad -1 . So for as we have investigated, if all the hospitals used a grid ratio of 5:1, a tube voltage of 120 kV, intensitying screens with rare earth phosphors and green-sensitive orthomatic medical x-ray films for the x-ray pelvimetric examinations, it would be possible to reduce the present exposure dose by one-fourth. The ratio of the x-ray pelvimetry taken on pregnant patients ranged from 2 % to 33 %, having a mean value of 15 %. (author)

  17. Competing risk bias was common in Kaplan-Meier risk estimates published in prominent medical journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walraven, Carl; McAlister, Finlay A

    2016-01-01

    Risk estimates from Kaplan-Meier curves are well known to medical researchers, reviewers, and editors. In this study, we determined the proportion of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in prominent medical journals that are potentially biased because of competing events ("competing risk bias"). We randomly selected 100 studies that had at least one Kaplan-Meier analysis and were recently published in prominent medical journals. Susceptibility to competing risk bias was determined by examining the outcome and potential competing events. In susceptible studies, bias was quantified using a previously validated prediction model when the number of outcomes and competing events were given. Forty-six studies (46%) contained Kaplan-Meier analyses susceptible to competing risk bias. Sixteen studies (34.8%) susceptible to competing risk cited the number of outcomes and competing events; in six of these studies (6/16, 37.5%), the outcome risk from the Kaplan-Meier estimate (relative to the true risk) was biased upward by 10% or more. Almost half of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in medical journals are susceptible to competing risk bias and may overestimate event risk. This bias was found to be quantitatively important in a third of such studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  19. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  20. [Ionizing and non-ionizing radiation (comparative risk estimations)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigor'ev, Iu G

    2012-01-01

    The population has widely used mobile communication for already more than 15 years. It is important to note that the use of mobile communication has sharply changed the conditions of daily exposure of the population to EME We expose our brain daily for the first time in the entire civilization. The mobile phone is an open and uncontrollable source of electromagnetic radiation. The comparative risk estimation for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation was carried out taking into account the real conditions of influence. Comparison of risks for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation leads us to a conclusion that EMF RF exposure in conditions of wide use of mobile communication is potentially more harmful than ionizing radiation influence.

  1. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  2. Estimation of radiation cancer risk in CT-KUB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, M. K. A.; Hashim, S.; Bakar, K. A.; Bradley, D. A.; Ang, W. C.; Bahrudin, N. A.; Mhareb, M. H. A.

    2017-08-01

    The increased demand for computed tomography (CT) in radiological scanning examinations raises the question of a potential health impact from the associated radiation exposures. Focusing on CT kidney-ureter-bladder (CT-KUB) procedures, this work was aimed at determining organ equivalent dose using a commercial CT dose calculator and providing an estimate of cancer risks. The study, which included 64 patients (32 males and 32 females, mean age 55.5 years and age range 30-80 years), involved use of a calibrated CT scanner (Siemens-Somatom Emotion 16-slice). The CT exposures parameter including tube potential, pitch factor, tube current, volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded and analyzed using CT-EXPO (Version 2.3.1, Germany). Patient organ doses, including for stomach, liver, colon, bladder, red bone marrow, prostate and ovaries were calculated and converted into cancer risks using age- and sex-specific data published in the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII report. With a median value scan range of 36.1 cm, the CTDIvol, DLP, and effective dose were found to be 10.7 mGy, 390.3 mGy cm and 6.2 mSv, respectively. The mean cancer risks for males and females were estimated to be respectively 25 and 46 out of 100,000 procedures with effective doses between 4.2 mSv and 10.1 mSv. Given the increased cancer risks from current CT-KUB procedures compared to conventional examinations, we propose that the low dose protocols for unenhanced CT procedures be taken into consideration before establishing imaging protocols for CT-KUB.

  3. Estimated risks and optimistic self-perception of breast cancer risk in Korean women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, ChaeWeon; Lee, Suk Jeong

    2013-11-01

    To determine women's perceived personal and comparative risks of breast cancer, and to examine the relationships with risk factors. Despite the increasing incidence of breast cancer in younger women and the availability of screening, women's health behaviors have not advanced accordingly. A cross-sectional survey design utilized a convenience sample of 222 women in their 30s and 40s recruited from community settings in Seoul. Self-administered questionnaire data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, the chi-squared test, and ANOVA. Risk perception levels differed significantly by breast cancer risk factors. Half of the women were optimistic about their breast cancer risk, while perceived personal risk did not reflect women's own risk factors and comparative risk differed only by the practice of clinical breast exam. Women's knowledge and awareness of their breast cancer risk factors need to be improved for appropriate risk perception and health behaviors, and accurate risk estimation could be utilized to educate them in clinical settings. © 2013.

  4. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  5. Estimating the risk-return tradeoff in MENA Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim Lahmiri

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This study employs the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean (GARCH-M methodology to investigate the return generating process of Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA, Kuwait, and Morocco stock market indices. The tradeoff between returns and the conditional variance is found to be positive in all markets. In other words, the empirical findings show that investors are rewarded for their exposure to more risk in these financial markets. This result is consistent with both financial theory and empirical finance.

  6. Estimates of health risk from exposure to radioactive pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, R.E.; Nelson, N.S.; Ellett, W.H.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1981-11-01

    A dosimetric and health effects analysis has been performed for the Office of Radiation Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to assess potential hazards from radioactive pollutants. Contemporary dosimetric methods were used to obtain estimates of dose rates to reference organs from internal exposures due to either inhalation of contaminated air or ingestion of contaminated food, or from external exposures due to either immersion in contaminated air or proximity to contaminated ground surfaces. These dose rates were then used to estimate the number of premature cancer deaths arising from such exposures and the corresponding number of years of life lost in a cohort of 100,000 persons, all simultaneously liveborn and all going through life with the same risks of dying from competing causes. The risk of dying from a competing cause for a given year was taken to be the probability of dying from all causes as given in a recent actuarial life table for the total US popula six times larger than the first reservoir.onunding. Analytical work cthe Department of Energy

  7. Uncertainty estimation and risk prediction in air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garaud, Damien

    2011-01-01

    This work is about uncertainty estimation and risk prediction in air quality. Firstly, we build a multi-model ensemble of air quality simulations which can take into account all uncertainty sources related to air quality modeling. Ensembles of photochemical simulations at continental and regional scales are automatically generated. Then, these ensemble are calibrated with a combinatorial optimization method. It selects a sub-ensemble which is representative of uncertainty or shows good resolution and reliability for probabilistic forecasting. This work shows that it is possible to estimate and forecast uncertainty fields related to ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations or to improve the reliability of threshold exceedance predictions. The approach is compared with Monte Carlo simulations, calibrated or not. The Monte Carlo approach appears to be less representative of the uncertainties than the multi-model approach. Finally, we quantify the observational error, the representativeness error and the modeling errors. The work is applied to the impact of thermal power plants, in order to quantify the uncertainty on the impact estimates. (author) [fr

  8. Studies on risk estimation to public from medical radiation (III)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Hai Yong; Kim, Jong Hyung; Kim, Hyeog Ju; Kim, Ji Soon; Oh, Hyeon Joo; Kim, Cheol Hyeon; Yang, Hyun Kyu [Korea Food and Drug Administraion, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Chan Il [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-06-01

    A nationwide survey was conducted to give representative levels of effective doses to patient for 17 types of CT examination and also representative level of MGD (mean glandular dose) to standard breast for mammography X-ray equipment. The effective doses to patient from 16 CT scanners were estimated from measurement of CTDI (Computed Tomography Dose Index) in air by multiplying conversion coefficients which are specified by National Radiological Protection Board in United Kingdom. The lowest and hightest mean values of effective dose measured to patient from CT scanner were 0.05 mSv for IAM examination and 17.75 mSv for routine abdomen examination, respectively. The average values of 17 effective doses were lower than other results of foreign countrys' surveys. The mean glandular doses to a standard breast for 26 mammography units were estimated from measurement of the air kerma at the surface of a 40 mm plain Perspex phantom by applying conversion factors described in Report 59 of the Institute of Physical Sciences in Medicine of United Kingdom. The exposure factors for this measurement were those used clinically at each hospital. The average MGD to standard breast was 1.06 mGy in units with grid and 0.49 mGy in units without grid. These results are lower than guidance levels by IPSM and AAPM. These results will be used for risk estimation to the Korean public from the medical radiation.

  9. How to Estimate Epidemic Risk from Incomplete Contact Diaries Data?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrandrea, Rossana; Barrat, Alain

    2016-06-01

    Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts between individuals. The contact networks obtained from these different techniques are however quantitatively different. Here, we first show how these discrepancies affect the prediction of the epidemic risk when these data are fed to numerical models of epidemic spread: low participation rate, under-reporting of contacts and overestimation of contact durations in contact diaries with respect to sensor data determine indeed important differences in the outcomes of the corresponding simulations with for instance an enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions. Most importantly, we investigate if and how information gathered from contact diaries can be used in such simulations in order to yield an accurate description of the epidemic risk, assuming that data from sensors represent the ground truth. The contact networks built from contact sensors and diaries present indeed several structural similarities: this suggests the possibility to construct, using only the contact diary network information, a surrogate contact network such that simulations using this surrogate network give the same estimation of the epidemic risk as simulations using the contact sensor network. We present and compare several methods to build such surrogate data, and show that it is indeed possible to obtain a good agreement between the outcomes of simulations using surrogate and sensor data, as long as the contact diary information is complemented by publicly available data describing the heterogeneity of the durations of human contacts.

  10. Estimating risk using bounding calculations and limited data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COWLEY, W.L.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines

  11. Estimation of embrittlement damage risk at neutron embrittled vessel constructions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staevski, K.; Madzharov, D.; Detistov, P.; Petrova, T.

    1998-01-01

    In this work a methodology based on Damage mechanics criteria is proposed. This methodology serves for probability assessment of the brittle damage risk for the neutron embrittled vessel elements. The developed methodology is realised in RISK code and has been verified on the base of tough reliability of the pressure vessel, 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2. This investigation has been carried out at the given parameters of the possible defects on the vessel's weld 4 taking into account requirements of the western and Russian standards. The obtained values for ductile to brittle transition temperatures, defining the equipment life-time in the presence of maximal defect, are in good consistence with the experimentally determined ones. The analyses of results show that the pressure vessel of 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2 has got a high level of reliability from brittle damage risk point of view and that the western standards give more conservative evaluation. On the bases of the results a conclusion is made that the developed methodology enables analysing the influence of possible defects in the neutron embrittled elements on their to reliability and their remained life-time

  12. Estimating doses and risks associated with decontamination and decommissioning activities using the CRRIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.; Sjoreen, A.L.; Cotter, S.J.

    1986-01-01

    The Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System (CRRIS) is applicable to determining doses and risks from a variety of decontamination and decommissioning activities. For example, concentrations in air from resuspended radionuclides initially deposited on the ground surface and the concentrations of deposited radionuclides in various soil layers can be obtained. The CRRIS will estimate exposure to radon and its progeny in terms of working-level months, and will compute the resulting health risks. The CRRIS consists of seven integrated computer codes that stand alone or are run as a system to calculate environmental transport, doses, and risks. PRIMUS output provides other CRRIS codes the capability to handle radionuclide decay chains. ANEMOS and RETADD-II calculate atmospheric dispersion and deposition for local and regional distances, respectively. Multiple ANEMOS runs for sources within a small area are combined on a master grid by SUMIT. MLSOIL is used to estimate effective ground surface concentrations for dose computations. TERRA calculates food chain transport, and ANDROS calculates individual or population exposures, doses, and risks. Applications of the CRRIS to decontamination problems are discussed. 16 refs., 1 fig

  13. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  14. Environmental risk assessment of selected organic chemicals based on TOC test and QSAR estimation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Yulang; Zhang, Huanteng; Huang, Qiansheng; Lin, Yi; Ye, Guozhu; Zhu, Huimin; Dong, Sijun

    2018-02-01

    Environmental risks of organic chemicals have been greatly determined by their persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity (PBT) and physicochemical properties. Major regulations in different countries and regions identify chemicals according to their bioconcentration factor (BCF) and octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow), which frequently displays a substantial correlation with the sediment sorption coefficient (Koc). Half-life or degradability is crucial for the persistence evaluation of chemicals. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) estimation models are indispensable for predicting environmental fate and health effects in the absence of field- or laboratory-based data. In this study, 39 chemicals of high concern were chosen for half-life testing based on total organic carbon (TOC) degradation, and two widely accepted and highly used QSAR estimation models (i.e., EPI Suite and PBT Profiler) were adopted for environmental risk evaluation. The experimental results and estimated data, as well as the two model-based results were compared, based on the water solubility, Kow, Koc, BCF and half-life. Environmental risk assessment of the selected compounds was achieved by combining experimental data and estimation models. It was concluded that both EPI Suite and PBT Profiler were fairly accurate in measuring the physicochemical properties and degradation half-lives for water, soil, and sediment. However, the half-lives between the experimental and the estimated results were still not absolutely consistent. This suggests deficiencies of the prediction models in some ways, and the necessity to combine the experimental data and predicted results for the evaluation of environmental fate and risks of pollutants. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  15. Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Amarenco, Pierre; LaRosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J. M.; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; de Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L. J.

    2016-01-01

    Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and residual

  16. Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Van Der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J G; Kastelein, John J P; Amarenco, Pierre; Larosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J M; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; De Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L J

    2016-01-01

    Background: Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and

  17. Radiation-Induced Leukemia at Doses Relevant to Radiation Therapy: Modeling Mechanisms and Estimating Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuryak, Igor; Sachs, Rainer K.; Hlatky, Lynn; Mark P. Little; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Brenner, David J.

    2006-01-01

    Because many cancer patients are diagnosed earlier and live longer than in the past, second cancers induced by radiation therapy have become a clinically significant issue. An earlier biologically based model that was designed to estimate risks of high-dose radiation induced solid cancers included initiation of stem cells to a premalignant state, inactivation of stem cells at high radiation doses, and proliferation of stem cells during cellular repopulation after inactivation. This earlier model predicted the risks of solid tumors induced by radiation therapy but overestimated the corresponding leukemia risks. Methods: To extend the model to radiation-induced leukemias, we analyzed in addition to cellular initiation, inactivation, and proliferation a repopulation mechanism specific to the hematopoietic system: long-range migration through the blood stream of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) from distant locations. Parameters for the model were derived from HSC biologic data in the literature and from leukemia risks among atomic bomb survivors v^ ho were subjected to much lower radiation doses. Results: Proliferating HSCs that migrate from sites distant from the high-dose region include few preleukemic HSCs, thus decreasing the high-dose leukemia risk. The extended model for leukemia provides risk estimates that are consistent with epidemiologic data for leukemia risk associated with radiation therapy over a wide dose range. For example, when applied to an earlier case-control study of 110000 women undergoing radiotherapy for uterine cancer, the model predicted an excess relative risk (ERR) of 1.9 for leukemia among women who received a large inhomogeneous fractionated external beam dose to the bone marrow (mean = 14.9 Gy), consistent with the measured ERR (2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 6.4; from 3.6 cases expected and 11 cases observed). As a corresponding example for brachytherapy, the predicted ERR of 0.80 among women who received an inhomogeneous low

  18. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Madsen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  19. Soil-ecological risks for soil degradation estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonova, Tatiana; Shirkin, Leonid; Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga

    2016-04-01

    Soil degradation includes the processes of soil properties and quality worsening, primarily from the point of view of their productivity and decrease of ecosystem services quality. Complete soil cover destruction and/or functioning termination of soil forms of organic life are considered as extreme stages of soil degradation, and for the fragile ecosystems they are normally considered in the network of their desertification, land degradation and droughts /DLDD/ concept. Block-model of ecotoxic effects, generating soil and ecosystem degradation, has been developed as a result of the long-term field and laboratory research of sod-podzol soils, contaminated with waste, containing heavy metals. The model highlights soil degradation mechanisms, caused by direct and indirect impact of ecotoxicants on "phytocenosis- soil" system and their combination, frequently causing synergistic effect. The sequence of occurring changes here can be formalized as a theory of change (succession of interrelated events). Several stages are distinguished here - from heavy metals leaching (releasing) in waste and their migration downward the soil profile to phytoproductivity decrease and certain phytocenosis composition changes. Phytoproductivity decrease leads to the reduction of cellulose content introduced into the soil. The described feedback mechanism acts as a factor of sod-podzolic soil self-purification and stability. It has been shown, that using phytomass productivity index, integrally reflecting the worsening of soil properties complex, it is possible to solve the problems dealing with the dose-reflecting reactions creation and determination of critical levels of load for phytocenosis and corresponding soil-ecological risks. Soil-ecological risk in "phytocenosis- soil" system means probable negative changes and the loss of some ecosystem functions during the transformation process of dead organic substance energy for the new biomass composition. Soil-ecological risks estimation is

  20. Maximum likelihood estimation of semiparametric mixture component models for competing risks data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sangbum; Huang, Xuelin

    2014-09-01

    In the analysis of competing risks data, the cumulative incidence function is a useful quantity to characterize the crude risk of failure from a specific event type. In this article, we consider an efficient semiparametric analysis of mixture component models on cumulative incidence functions. Under the proposed mixture model, latency survival regressions given the event type are performed through a class of semiparametric models that encompasses the proportional hazards model and the proportional odds model, allowing for time-dependent covariates. The marginal proportions of the occurrences of cause-specific events are assessed by a multinomial logistic model. Our mixture modeling approach is advantageous in that it makes a joint estimation of model parameters associated with all competing risks under consideration, satisfying the constraint that the cumulative probability of failing from any cause adds up to one given any covariates. We develop a novel maximum likelihood scheme based on semiparametric regression analysis that facilitates efficient and reliable estimation. Statistical inferences can be conveniently made from the inverse of the observed information matrix. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators. We validate small sample properties with simulations and demonstrate the methodology with a data set from a study of follicular lymphoma. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  1. Longtime napping is associated with cardiovascular risk estimation according to Framingham risk score in postmenopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Sun, Kan; Lin, Diaozhu; Qi, Yiqin; Li, Yan; Yan, Li; Ren, Meng

    2016-09-01

    Menopause can affect the physiological timing system, which could result in circadian rhythm changes and development of napping habits. Whether longtime napping in postmenopausal women is associated with cardiovascular disease is, however, still debated. The present study aims to investigate this association. We conducted a population-based study in 4,616 postmenopausal Chinese women. Information on sleep duration was self-reported. The Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score was calculated and used to identify participants at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Increased daytime napping hours were positively associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors in postmenopausal women, such as age, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting glucose, postload glucose, and hemoglobin A1C (all P for trend napping hours, and was 3.7%, 4.3%, and 6.9% in the no daytime napping group, the 0.1 to 1 hour group, and the more than 1 hour group, respectively (P for trend = 0.005). Compared with the no daytime napping group, postmenopausal women with daytime napping more than 1 hour had higher risk of CHD in both univariate (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI, 1.29-2.95) and multivariate (odds ratio 1.61, 95% CI, 1.03-2.52) logistic regression analyses. No statistically significant association was detected between night sleeping hours and high risk of CHD in postmenopausal participants. Daytime napping is positively associated with estimated 10-year CHD risk in postmenopausal Chinese women.

  2. How much does HDL cholesterol add to risk estimation? A report from the SCORE Investigators.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2009-06-01

    Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), the risk estimation system recommended by the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention, estimates 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality based on age, sex, country of origin, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and either total cholesterol (TC) or TC\\/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio. As, counterintuitively, these two systems perform very similarly, we have investigated whether incorporating HDL-C and TC as separate variables improves risk estimation.

  3. Risk estimation of radiation exposure in early pregnancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumeister, K.; Waesser, S.

    1977-01-01

    The biomedical effects of radiation exposure (occupational, by X-ray diagnosis or examinations in nuclear medicine) to low doses on early pregnancy have been subject of a research work dealing with the dose level which, in case of exceeding, may lead to somatic damage (1.5 to 10 rem), and with the type of radiation injuries (malformations, functional disorder, cancer induction, increase in morbidity rate, genetic damage). A pilot study was the basis for the programme which will record such cases from all over the GDR. Within the scope of the health centre at the National Board of Nuclear Safety and Radiation Protection of the GDR, medical opinion on the interruption or preservation of pregnancy at its early stage, after exposure, was delivered in more than 50 cases. Exposure of the foetus was exactly determined. These children were re-investigated at the age of 1 to 3 years by applying pediatric and genetic examinations. The latter were based on clinical and biochemical methods as well as chromosome analyses. From these results, the risk of exposure in early pregnancy is estimated and adequate dose limits are suggested. In case these limits are exceeded, an interruption should be advised

  4. Accounting for individualized competing mortality risks in estimating postmenopausal breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schonberg, Mara A.; Li, Vicky W.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Davis, Roger B.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; McCarthy, Ellen P.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Ngo, Long H.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. Methods We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors), 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency), and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women’s Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Results Within 5 years, 1.8% of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0% in WHI-ES, p=0.02) and 6.6% experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2% in WHI-ES, prisk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model’s c-statistic was 0.61 (95% CI [0.60–0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55–0.58) in WHI-ES. On average our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88–0.97]). Conclusions We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women’s individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk. PMID:27770283

  5. Association between consistent purchase of anticonvulsants or lithium and suicide risk: a longitudinal cohort study from Denmark, 1995-2001

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, Eric G; Søndergård, Lars; Lopez, Ana Garcia

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Prior studies suggest anticonvulsants purchasers may be at greater risk of suicide than lithium purchasers. METHODS: Longitudinal, retrospective cohort study of all individuals in Denmark purchasing anticonvulsants (valproic acid, carbamazepine, oxcarbazepine or lamotrigine) (n=9952...

  6. Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

  7. Validation of temporal and spatial consistency of facility- and speed-specific vehicle-specific power distributions for emission estimation: A case study in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Zhiqiang; Song, Guohua; Lu, Hongyu; He, Weinan; Yu, Lei

    2017-09-01

    Vehicle-specific power (VSP) has been found to be highly correlated with vehicle emissions. It is used in many studies on emission modeling such as the MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) model. The existing studies develop specific VSP distributions (or OpMode distribution in MOVES) for different road types and various average speeds to represent the vehicle operating modes on road. However, it is still not clear if the facility- and speed-specific VSP distributions are consistent temporally and spatially. For instance, is it necessary to update periodically the database of the VSP distributions in the emission model? Are the VSP distributions developed in the city central business district (CBD) area applicable to its suburb area? In this context, this study examined the temporal and spatial consistency of the facility- and speed-specific VSP distributions in Beijing. The VSP distributions in different years and in different areas are developed, based on real-world vehicle activity data. The root mean square error (RMSE) is employed to quantify the difference between the VSP distributions. The maximum differences of the VSP distributions between different years and between different areas are approximately 20% of that between different road types. The analysis of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission factor indicates that the temporal and spatial differences of the VSP distributions have no significant impact on vehicle emission estimation, with relative error of less than 3%. The temporal and spatial differences have no significant impact on the development of the facility- and speed-specific VSP distributions for the vehicle emission estimation. The database of the specific VSP distributions in the VSP-based emission models can maintain in terms of time. Thus, it is unnecessary to update the database regularly, and it is reliable to use the history vehicle activity data to forecast the emissions in the future. In one city, the areas with less data can still

  8. Interface Consistency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staunstrup, Jørgen

    1998-01-01

    This paper proposes that Interface Consistency is an important issue for the development of modular designs. Byproviding a precise specification of component interfaces it becomes possible to check that separately developedcomponents use a common interface in a coherent matter thus avoiding a very...... significant source of design errors. Awide range of interface specifications are possible, the simplest form is a syntactical check of parameter types.However, today it is possible to do more sophisticated forms involving semantic checks....

  9. Value-at-risk estimation with fuzzy histograms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

    2008-01-01

    Value at risk (VaR) is a measure for senior management that summarises the financial risk a company faces into one single number. In this paper, we consider the use of fuzzy histograms for quantifying the value-at-risk of a portfolio. It is shown that the use of fuzzy histograms provides a good

  10. Impact of ground motion characterization on conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sewell, R.T.; Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K.

    1996-07-01

    This study evaluates the impact, on estimates of seismic risk and its uncertainty, of alternative methods in treatment and characterization of earthquake ground motions. The objective of this study is to delineate specific procedures and characterizations that may lead to less biased and more precise seismic risk results. This report focuses on sources of conservatism and variability in risk that may be introduced through the analytical processes and ground-motion descriptions which are commonly implemented at the interface of seismic hazard and fragility assessments. In particular, implication of the common practice of using a single, composite spectral shape to characterize motions of different magnitudes is investigated. Also, the impact of parameterization of ground motion on fragility and hazard assessments is shown. Examination of these results demonstrates the following. (1) There exists significant conservatism in the review spectra (usually, spectra characteristic of western U.S. earthquakes) that have been used in conducting past seismic risk assessments and seismic margin assessments for eastern U.S. nuclear power plants. (2) There is a strong dependence of seismic fragility on earthquake magnitude when PGA is used as the ground-motion characterization. When, however, magnitude-dependent spectra are anchored to a common measure of elastic spectral acceleration averaged over the appropriate frequency range, seismic fragility shows no important nor consistent dependence on either magnitude or strong-motion duration. Use of inelastic spectral acceleration (at the proper frequency) as the ground spectrum anchor demonstrates a very similar result. This study concludes that a single, composite-magnitude spectrum can generally be used to characterize ground motion for fragility assessment without introducing significant bias or uncertainty in seismic risk estimates

  11. Impact of ground motion characterization on conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sewell, R.T.; Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K.

    1996-07-01

    This study evaluates the impact, on estimates of seismic risk and its uncertainty, of alternative methods in treatment and characterization of earthquake ground motions. The objective of this study is to delineate specific procedures and characterizations that may lead to less biased and more precise seismic risk results. This report focuses on sources of conservatism and variability in risk that may be introduced through the analytical processes and ground-motion descriptions which are commonly implemented at the interface of seismic hazard and fragility assessments. In particular, implication of the common practice of using a single, composite spectral shape to characterize motions of different magnitudes is investigated. Also, the impact of parameterization of ground motion on fragility and hazard assessments is shown. Examination of these results demonstrates the following. (1) There exists significant conservatism in the review spectra (usually, spectra characteristic of western U.S. earthquakes) that have been used in conducting past seismic risk assessments and seismic margin assessments for eastern U.S. nuclear power plants. (2) There is a strong dependence of seismic fragility on earthquake magnitude when PGA is used as the ground-motion characterization. When, however, magnitude-dependent spectra are anchored to a common measure of elastic spectral acceleration averaged over the appropriate frequency range, seismic fragility shows no important nor consistent dependence on either magnitude or strong-motion duration. Use of inelastic spectral acceleration (at the proper frequency) as the ground spectrum anchor demonstrates a very similar result. This study concludes that a single, composite-magnitude spectrum can generally be used to characterize ground motion for fragility assessment without introducing significant bias or uncertainty in seismic risk estimates.

  12. Patients with Testicular Cancer Undergoing CT Surveillance Demonstrate a Pitfall of Radiation-induced Cancer Risk Estimates: The Timing Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Lee, Richard J.; Gilmore, Michael E.; Turan, Ekin A.; Singh, Sarabjeet; Kalra, Mannudeep K.; Liu, Bob; Kong, Chung Yin; Gazelle, G. Scott

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To demonstrate a limitation of lifetime radiation-induced cancer risk metrics in the setting of testicular cancer surveillance—in particular, their failure to capture the delayed timing of radiation-induced cancers over the course of a patient’s lifetime. Materials and Methods: Institutional review board approval was obtained for the use of computed tomographic (CT) dosimetry data in this study. Informed consent was waived. This study was HIPAA compliant. A Markov model was developed to project outcomes in patients with testicular cancer who were undergoing CT surveillance in the decade after orchiectomy. To quantify effects of early versus delayed risks, life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to testicular cancer were compared with life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to radiation-induced cancers from CT. Projections of life expectancy loss, unlike lifetime risk estimates, account for the timing of risks over the course of a lifetime, which enabled evaluation of the described limitation of lifetime risk estimates. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the uncertainty of the results. Results: As an example of evidence yielded, 33-year-old men with stage I seminoma who were undergoing CT surveillance were projected to incur a slightly higher lifetime mortality risk from testicular cancer (598 per 100 000; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 302, 894) than from radiation-induced cancers (505 per 100 000; 95% UI: 280, 730). However, life expectancy loss attributable to testicular cancer (83 days; 95% UI: 42, 124) was more than three times greater than life expectancy loss attributable to radiation-induced cancers (24 days; 95% UI: 13, 35). Trends were consistent across modeled scenarios. Conclusion: Lifetime radiation risk estimates, when used for decision making, may overemphasize radiation-induced cancer risks relative to short-term health risks. © RSNA, 2012 Supplemental material: http

  13. Comparative estimates of risks arising from storage of intermediate level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, D.

    1986-04-01

    Estimates are presented of risks arising from accidents occuring during storage of nine types of conditioned intermediate level waste. Additional data are introduced relating to the risks from accidents affecting raw waste, and to risks associated with the occupational doses received during normal operation of a waste store. Risks in all three categories are shown to be extremely small. (author)

  14. Risks of circulatory diseases among Mayak PA workers with radiation doses estimated using the improved Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moseeva, Maria B.; Azizova, Tamara V.; Grigoryeva, Evgenia S. [Southern Urals Biophysics Institute (SUBI), Ozyorsk, Chelyabinsk Region (Russian Federation); Haylock, Richard [Public Health of England, London (United Kingdom)

    2014-05-15

    The new Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008 (MWDS-2008) was published in 2013 and supersedes the Doses-2005 dosimetry system for Mayak Production Association (PA) workers. It provides revised external and internal dose estimates based on the updated occupational history data. Using MWDS-2008, a cohort of 18,856 workers first employed at one of the main Mayak PA plants during 1948-1972 and followed up to 2005 was identified. Incidence and mortality risks from ischemic heart disease (IHD) (International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 codes 410-414) and from cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) (ICD-9 codes 430-438) were examined in this cohort and compared with previously published risk estimates in the same cohort based on the Doses-2005 dosimetry system. Significant associations were observed between doses from external gamma-rays and IHD and CVD incidence and also between internal doses from alpha-radiation and IHD mortality and CVD incidence. The estimates of excess relative risk (ERR)/Gy were consistent with those estimates from the previous studies based on Doses-2005 system apart from the relationship between CVD incidence and internal liver dose where the ERR/Gy based on MWDS-2008 was just over three times higher than the corresponding estimate based on Doses-2005 system. Adjustment for smoking status did not show any effect on the estimates of risk from internal alpha-particle exposure. (orig.)

  15. Risk information in support of cost estimates for the Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR). Section 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gelston, G.M.; Jarvis, M.F.; Warren, B.R.; Von Berg, R.

    1995-06-01

    The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL)(1) effort on the overall Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) project consists of four installation-specific work components performed in succession. These components include (1) development of source terms, 92) collection of data and preparation of environmental settings reports, (3) calculation of unit risk factors, and (4) utilization of the unit risk factors in Automated Remedial Action Methodology (ARAM) for computation of target concentrations and cost estimates. This report documents work completed for the Nevada Test Site, Nevada, for components 2 and 3. The product of this phase of the BEMR project is the development of unit factors (i.e., unit transport factors, unit exposure factors, and unit risk factors). Thousands of these unit factors are gene rated and fill approximately one megabyte of computer information per installation. The final unit risk factors (URF) are transmitted electronically to BEMR-Cost task personnel as input to a computer program (ARAM). Abstracted files and exhibits of the URF information are included in this report. These visual formats are intended to provide a sample of the final task deliverable (the URF files) which can be easily read without a computer

  16. Latent-failure risk estimates for computer control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, William R.; Folsom, Rolfe A.; Green, Owen R.

    1991-01-01

    It is shown that critical computer controls employing unmonitored safety circuits are unsafe. Analysis supporting this result leads to two additional, important conclusions: (1) annual maintenance checks of safety circuit function do not, as widely believed, eliminate latent failure risk; (2) safety risk remains even if multiple, series-connected protection circuits are employed. Finally, it is shown analytically that latent failure risk is eliminated when continuous monitoring is employed.

  17. An assessment of ecological and case-control methods for estimating lung cancer risk due to indoor radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stidley, C.A.; Samet, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    Studies of underground miners indicate that indoor radon is an important cause of lung cancer. This finding has raised concern that exposure to radon also causes lung cancer in the general population. Epidemiological studies, including both case-control and ecological approaches, have directly addressed the risks of indoor residential radon; many more case-control studies are in progress. Ecological studies that associate lung-cancer rates with typical indoor radon levels in various geographic areas have not consistently shown positive associations. The results of purportedly negative ecological studies have been used as a basis for questioning the hazards of indoor radon exposure. Because of potentially serious methodologic flaws for testing hypotheses, we examined the ecological method as a tool for assessing lung-cancer risk from indoor radon exposure. We developed a simulation approach that utilizes the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) radon survey data to assign exposures to individuals within counties. Using the computer-generated data, we compared risk estimates obtained by ecological regression methods with those obtained from other regression methods and with the open-quotes trueclose quotes risks used to generate the data. For many of these simulations, the ecological models, while fitting the summary data well, gave risk estimates that differed considerably from the true risks. For some models, the risk estimates were negatively correlated with exposure, although the assumed relationship was positive. Attempts to improve the ecological models by adding smoking variables, including interaction terms, did not always improve the estimates of risk, which are easily affected by model misspecification. Because exposure situations used in the simulations are realistic, our results show that ecological methods may not accurately estimate the lung-cancer risk associated with indoor radon exposure

  18. Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

    2018-06-01

    Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    te Linde, A.H.; Bubeck, P.; Dekkers, J.E.C.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2011-01-01

    In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine

  20. Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gerald G.; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai

    2017-01-01

    The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical

  1. Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gerald G.

    2017-08-02

    The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical

  2. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  3. Estimation of second primary cancers risk based on the treatment planning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Chufeng; Sun Guangyao; Liu Hui; Zheng Huaqing; Cheng Mengyun; Li Gui; Wu Yican; FDS Team

    2011-01-01

    Estimates of second primary cancers risk after radiotherapy has become increasingly important for comparative treatment planning. A new method based on the treatment planning system to estimate the risk of second primary cancers was introduced in this paper. Using the Advanced/Accurate Radiotherapy Treatment System(ARTS), a treatment planning system developed by the FDS team,the risk of second primary cancer was estimated over two treatment plans for a patient with pancreatic cancer. Based on the second primary cancer risk, the two plans were compared. It was found that,kidney and gall-bladder had higher risk to develop second primary cancer. A better plan was chosen by the analysis of second primary cancer risk. The results showed that this risk estimation method we developed could be used to evaluate treatment plans. (authors)

  4. Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joppa, Lucas N; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steve P; Akçakaya, H Resit; Moat, Justin F; Böhm, Monika; Holland, Robert A; Newton, Adrian; Polidoro, Beth; Hughes, Adrian

    2016-04-01

    In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species' distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11-13% for all species combined (14-15% for mammals, 7-8% for birds, and 12-15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  5. Estimating the incremental net health benefit of requirements for cardiovascular risk evaluation for diabetes therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Anita J; Mytelka, Daniel S; McBride, Stephan D; Nellesen, Dave; Elkins, Benjamin R; Ball, Daniel E; Kalsekar, Anupama; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P

    2014-03-01

    To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of pre-approval requirements for safety data to detect cardiovascular (CV) risk contained in the December 2008 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance for developing type 2 diabetes drugs compared with the February 2008 FDA draft guidance from the perspective of diabetes population health. We applied the incremental net health benefit (INHB) framework to quantify the benefits and risks of investigational diabetes drugs using a common survival metric (life-years [LYs]). We constructed a decision analytic model for clinical program development consistent with the requirements of each guidance and simulated diabetes drugs, some of which had elevated CV risk. Assuming constant research budgets, we estimate the impact of increased trial size on drugs investigated. We aggregate treatment benefit and CV risks for each approved drug over a 35-year horizon under each guidance. The quantitative analysis suggests that the December 2008 guidance adversely impacts diabetes population health. INHB was -1.80 million LYs, attributable to delayed access to diabetes therapies (-0 .18 million LYs) and fewer drugs (-1.64 million LYs), but partially offset by reduced CV risk exposure (0.02 million LYs). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. The health outcomes impact of all potential benefits and risks should be evaluated in a common survival measure, including health gain from avoided adverse events, lost health benefits from delayed or for gone efficacious products, and impact of alternative policy approaches. Quantitative analysis of the December 2008 FDA guidance for diabetes therapies indicates that negative impact on patient health will result. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Estimated risk contribution for dry spent fuel storage cask

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, C.; Kirk, M.T.; Abramson, L.; Guttmann, J.; Hackett, E.; Simonen, F.A.

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is pursuing means to risk-inform its regulations and programs for dry storage of spent nuclear fuel. In pursuit of this objective, the NRC will develop safety goals and probabilistic risk assessments for implementing risk-informed programs. This paper provides one example method for calculating the risk of a dry spent fuel storage cask under normal and accident conditions. The example is on the HI-STORM 100 cask at a proposed site containing four thousand such casks. The paper evaluates the risk to the public by determining the likelihood a welded stainless steel container will leak. In addition, the study addresses the risk at a site where 4,000 casks may be stored until the U.S. Department of Energy accepts the casks for placement in a repository. The methods used employ the PRODIGAL computer code to assess the probability of a faulty weld on a stainless steel-welded canister. These analyses are only the initial stages of a comprehensive risk study that the NRC is performing in support of its regulatory initiatives. (author)

  7. keV-Scale sterile neutrino sensitivity estimation with time-of-flight spectroscopy in KATRIN using self-consistent approximate Monte Carlo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinbrink, Nicholas M. N.; Behrens, Jan D.; Mertens, Susanne; Ranitzsch, Philipp C.-O.; Weinheimer, Christian

    2018-03-01

    We investigate the sensitivity of the Karlsruhe Tritium Neutrino Experiment (KATRIN) to keV-scale sterile neutrinos, which are promising dark matter candidates. Since the active-sterile mixing would lead to a second component in the tritium β-spectrum with a weak relative intensity of order sin ^2θ ≲ 10^{-6}, additional experimental strategies are required to extract this small signature and to eliminate systematics. A possible strategy is to run the experiment in an alternative time-of-flight (TOF) mode, yielding differential TOF spectra in contrast to the integrating standard mode. In order to estimate the sensitivity from a reduced sample size, a new analysis method, called self-consistent approximate Monte Carlo (SCAMC), has been developed. The simulations show that an ideal TOF mode would be able to achieve a statistical sensitivity of sin ^2θ ˜ 5 × 10^{-9} at one σ , improving the standard mode by approximately a factor two. This relative benefit grows significantly if additional exemplary systematics are considered. A possible implementation of the TOF mode with existing hardware, called gated filtering, is investigated, which, however, comes at the price of a reduced average signal rate.

  8. Explaining behavior change after genetic testing: the problem of collinearity between test results and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanshawe, Thomas R; Prevost, A Toby; Roberts, J Scott; Green, Robert C; Armstrong, David; Marteau, Theresa M

    2008-09-01

    This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed epsilon4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in epsilon4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving epsilon4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and epsilon4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an epsilon4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates.

  9. Estimating cancer risk from outdoor concentrations of hazardous air pollutants in 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodruff, T.J.; Caldwell, J.; Cogliano, V.J.; Axelrad, D.A.

    2000-03-01

    A public health concern regarding hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) is their potential to cause cancer. It has been difficult to assess potential cancer risks from HAPs, due primarily to lack of ambient concentration data for the general population. The Environmental Protection Agency's Cumulative Exposure Project modeled 1990 outdoor concentrations of HAPs across the United States, which were combined with inhalation unit risk estimates to estimate the potential increase in excess cancer risk for individual carcinogenic HAPs. These were summed3d to provide an estimate of cancer risk from multiple HAPs. The analysis estimates a median excess cancer risk of 18 lifetime cancer cases per 100,000 people for all HAP concentrations. About 75% of estimated cancer risk was attributable to exposure to polycyclic organic matter, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, benzene, and chromium. Consideration of some specific uncertainties, including underestimation of ambient concentrations, combining upper 95% confidence bound potency estimates, and changes to potency estimates, found that cancer risk may be underestimated by 15% or overestimated by 40--50%. Other unanalyzed uncertainties could make these under- or overestimates larger. This analysis used 1990 estimates of concentrations and can be used to track progress toward reducing cancer risk to the general population.

  10. Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure

    2008-01-01

    ... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.

  11. Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2013-01-01

    This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on

  12. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Fournier, Mathieu

    -neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

  13. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris

    -neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models' performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

  14. Insulin Sensitivity and Mortality Risk Estimation in Patients with Type ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-07-15

    Jul 15, 2016 ... density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), triglycerides (TG), high‑density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), urinary albumin‑to‑creatinine ratio ... the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance.

  15. The Program Module of Information Risk Numerical Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Stepanova

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The algorithm of information risks analysis realized in the program module on the basis of threats matrixes and fuzzy cognitive maps describing potential threats on resources is offered in this paper.

  16. The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gething Peter W

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution, LandScan (~1 km, UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km, and GPW3 (~5 km. More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was

  17. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Heesen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic

  18. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians

  19. Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

    2016-04-01

    A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

  20. Estimating cancer risks induced by CT screening for Korea population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Hye Jeong; Yang, Won Seok

    2016-01-01

    Computed Tomography(CT) has been used to diagnose early stages of cancer and other diseases. Since the number of CT screening has been increasing, there is now a debate about the possible benefits and risks of CT screening on asymptomatic individuals. CT screening has definite benefits, however the radiation risk of screening an asymptomatic individual is a serious problem that cannot be overlooked. Despite its potential risks, CT screening for asymptomatic individual has been gradually increased in Korea and it is attributed to increase collective effective dose. Therefore, we reported the risk level of each organ which is included in scan field for CT screening and analyzed and then evaluated the risk level of Korean population comparison to others, Hong Kong, U.S. and U.K. populations. LARs are lower with older ages for all populations of both sexes. We recommend CT screening after the age of 40 because from that age, LAR decreases and the danger of top 5 cancer increases.

  1. How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2011-12-01

    Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

  2. Estimating lung cancer risks of indoor radon: applications for prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klotz, J.B.

    1986-01-01

    The epidemiologic evidence for a serious lung cancer hazard from radon exposure is very strong, and cumulative exposures accrued in residences may frequently overlap those accrued in underground miners. However, many uncertainties exist in extrapolating from mining to indoor risks because of differences in the populations, in radon exposure variables, and in other exposures. Risks are also considered for indoor radon exposures outside the home. There is already suggestive evidence of an association of lung cancer with radon levels in community settings, and several large-scale investigations are in progress. Some important questions regarding quantifying risk may not be approached, however; some further research needs are outlined including development of techniques for preventing or postponing lung cancer in individuals previously exposed to high radon levels. 31 references, 2 tables

  3. Probabilistic methodology for estimating radiation-induced cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Williams, L.R.

    1981-01-01

    The RICRAC computer code was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to provide a versatile and convenient methodology for radiation risk assessment. The code allows as input essentially any dose pattern commonly encountered in risk assessments for either acute or chronic exposures, and it includes consideration of the age structure of the exposed population. Results produced by the analysis include the probability of one or more radiation-induced cancer deaths in a specified population, expected numbers of deaths, and expected years of life lost as a result of premature fatalities. These calculatons include consideration of competing risks of death from all other causes. The program also generates a probability frequency distribution of the expected number of cancers in any specified cohort resulting from a given radiation dose. The methods may be applied to any specified population and dose scenario

  4. Including pathogen risk in life cycle assessment of wastewater management. 1. Estimating the burden of disease associated with pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harder, Robin; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Peters, Gregory M

    2014-08-19

    The environmental performance of wastewater and sewage sludge management is commonly assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA), whereas pathogen risk is evaluated with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This study explored the application of QMRA methodology with intent to include pathogen risk in LCA and facilitate a comparison with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA. Pathogen risk was estimated for a model wastewater treatment system (WWTS) located in an industrialized country and consisting of primary, secondary, and tertiary wastewater treatment, anaerobic sludge digestion, and land application of sewage sludge. The estimation was based on eight previous QMRA studies as well as parameter values taken from the literature. A total pathogen risk (expressed as burden of disease) on the order of 0.2-9 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per year of operation was estimated for the model WWTS serving 28,600 persons and for the pathogens and exposure pathways included in this study. The comparison of pathogen risk with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA is detailed in part 2 of this article series.

  5. Model-Based Estimation of Collision Risks of Predatory Birds with Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Eichhorn

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of renewable energies, such as wind power, is a promising way of mitigating climate change. Because of the risk of collision with rotor blades, wind turbines have negative effects on local bird populations, particularly on raptors such as the Red Kite (Milvus milvus. Appropriate assessment tools for these effects have been lacking. To close this gap, we have developed an agent-based, spatially explicit model that simulates the foraging behavior of the Red Kite around its aerie in a landscape consisting of different land-use types. We determined the collision risk of the Red Kite with the turbine as a function of the distance between the wind turbine and the aerie and other parameters. The impact function comprises the synergistic effects of species-specific foraging behavior and landscape structure. The collision risk declines exponentially with increasing distance. The strength of this decline depends on the raptor's foraging behavior, its ability to avoid wind turbines, and the mean wind speed in the region. The collision risks, which are estimated by the simulation model, are in the range of values observed in the field. The derived impact function shows that the collision risk can be described as an aggregated function of distance between the wind turbine and the raptor's aerie. This allows an easy and rapid assessment of the ecological impacts of (existing or planned wind turbines in relation to their spatial location. Furthermore, it implies that minimum buffer zones for different landscapes can be determined in a defensible way. This modeling approach can be extended to other bird species with central-place foraging behavior. It provides a helpful tool for landscape planning aimed at minimizing the impacts of wind power on biodiversity.

  6. Estimates of eddy turbulence consistent with seasonal variations of atomic oxygen and its possible role in the seasonal cycle of mesopause temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Vlasov

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available According to current understanding, adiabatic cooling and heating induced by the meridional circulation driven by gravity waves is the major process for the cold summer and warm winter polar upper mesosphere. However, our calculations show that the upward/downward motion needed for adiabatic cooling/heating of the summer/winter polar mesopause simultaneously induces a seasonal variation in both the O maximum density and the altitude of the [O] peak that is opposite to the observed variables generalized by the MSISE-90 model. It is usually accepted that eddy turbulence can produce the [O] seasonal variations. Using this approach, we can infer the eddy diffusion coefficient for the different seasons. Taking these results and experimental data on the eddy diffusion coefficient, we consider in detail and estimate the heating and cooling caused by eddy turbulence in the summer and winter polar upper mesosphere. The seasonal variations of these processes are similar to the seasonal variations of the temperature and mesopause. These results lead to the conclusion that heating/cooling by eddy turbulence is an important component in the energy budget and that adiabatic cooling/heating induced by upward/downward motion cannot dominate in the mesopause region. Our study shows that the impact of the dynamic process, induced by gravity waves, on [O] distributions must be included in models of thermal balance in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT for a consistent description because (a the [O] distribution is very sensitive to dynamic processes, and (b atomic oxygen plays a very important role in chemical heating and infrared cooling in the MLT. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to consider this aspect of the problem.

  7. Estimating Bird / Aircraft Collision Probabilities and Risk Utilizing Spatial Poisson Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-10

    ESTIMATING BIRD/AIRCRAFT COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE...AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE RESEARCH PAPER Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences...COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES Brady J. Vaira, BS, MS Major, USAF Approved

  8. Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olver, Mark E; Mundt, James C; Thornton, David; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Kingston, Drew A; Sowden, Justina N; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Wong, Stephen C P

    2018-04-30

    The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Estimating ToE Risk Level using CVSS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houmb, S.H.; Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.

    2009-01-01

    Security management is about calculated risk and requires continuous evaluation to ensure cost, time and resource effectiveness. Parts of which is to make future-oriented, cost-benefit investments in security. Security investments must adhere to healthy business principles where both security and

  10. Transfusion complications:Estimate of the residual risk of transfusion ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Sub-Saharan Africa remains the epicenter of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pan- demic. However, there is a lack of multicenter data on the risk of transfusion-transmitted HIV from blood centers in sub-Saharan Africa. Study design and methods: The incidence of HIV infections in the blood donations ...

  11. Estimation of risks associated to land transport of uranium hexafluoride

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pages, P.; Tomachevsky, E.

    1987-01-01

    The system analysed concerns the packaging 48Y containing about 12 tons of hexafluoride, 1000 tons/year are forecasted for 1990 on the 900 km road Pierrelatte-Le Havre (France). Probabilities are given by the accident file, container failure by impact or fire and sanitary consequences are analysed. Risk is evaluated and discussed [fr

  12. A new estimation technique of sovereign default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Ali Soytaş

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Using the fixed-point theorem, sovereign default models are solved by numerical value function iteration and calibration methods, which due to their computational constraints, greatly limits the models' quantitative performance and foregoes its country-specific quantitative projection ability. By applying the Hotz-Miller estimation technique (Hotz and Miller, 1993- often used in applied microeconometrics literature- to dynamic general equilibrium models of sovereign default, one can estimate the ex-ante default probability of economies, given the structural parameter values obtained from country-specific business-cycle statistics and relevant literature. Thus, with this technique we offer an alternative solution method to dynamic general equilibrium models of sovereign default to improve upon their quantitative inference ability.

  13. Estimation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Krymsky, V.; Kozine, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen technologies such as hydrogen fuelled vehicles and refuelling stations are being tested in practice in a number of projects (e.g. HyFleet-Cute and Whistler project) giving valuable information on the reliability and maintenance requirements. In order to establish refuelling stations the ...... probability and the NUSAP concept to quantify uncertainties of new not fully qualified hydrogen technologies and implications to risk management.......Hydrogen technologies such as hydrogen fuelled vehicles and refuelling stations are being tested in practice in a number of projects (e.g. HyFleet-Cute and Whistler project) giving valuable information on the reliability and maintenance requirements. In order to establish refuelling stations...... the permitting authorities request qualitative and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) to show the safety and acceptability in terms of failure frequencies and respective consequences. For new technologies not all statistical data might be established or are available in good quality causing assumptions...

  14. Estimation of Employee Turnover with Competing Risks Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzenda Wioletta

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Employee turnover accompanies every business organization, regardless of the industry and size. Nowadays, many companies struggle with problems related to the lack of sufficient information about the nature of employee turnover processes. Therefore, comprehensive analysis of these processes is necessary. This article aims to examine the turnover of employees from a big manufacturing company using competing risks models with covariates and without covariates. This technique allows to incorporate the information about the type of employment contract termination. Moreover, Cox proportional hazard model enables the researcher to analyse simultaneously multiple factors that affect employment duration. One of the major observations is that employee remuneration level differentiates most strongly the risk of job resignation.

  15. Dose dependence on stochastic radiobiological effect in radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komochkov, M.M.

    1999-01-01

    The analysis of the results in dose -- effect relationship observation has been carried out on the cell and organism levels, with the aim to obtain more precise data on the risk coefficients at low doses. The results are represented by two contrasting groups of dose dependence on effect: a downwards concave and a J-shaped curve. Both types of dependence are described by the equation solutions of an assumed unified protective mechanism, which comprises two components: constitutive and adaptive or inducible ones. The latest data analysis of the downwards concave dependence curves shows a considerable underestimation of radiation risk in all types of cancer, except leukemia, for a number of critical groups in a population, at low doses comparing to the ICRP recommendations. With the dose increase, the decrease of the effect value per dose unit is observed. It may be possibly related to the switching of the activity of the adaptive protective mechanism, with some threshold dose values being exceeded

  16. Identification and risk estimation of movement strategies during cutting maneuvers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Sina; Komnik, Igor; Peters, Markus; Funken, Johannes; Potthast, Wolfgang

    2017-12-01

    Approximately 70% of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries occur in non-contact situations during cutting and landing maneuvers. Parameters such as footstrike patterns and trunk orientation were found to influence ACL relevant knee loading, however, the relationship between the whole body movement and injury risk is debated. This study identifies whole body movement strategies that increase injury risk, and provides training recommendations to reduce this risk or enable a save return to sports after injury. Experimental cross-sectional study design. Three dimensional movement analysis was carried out to investigate 50 participants performing anticipated 90° cutting maneuvers. To identify and characterize movement strategies, footstrike pattern, knee valgus moment, knee internal rotation moment, angle of attack, shoulder and pelvis axis were analyzed using statistical parametric mapping. Three different movement strategies were identified. One strategy included rearfoot striking in combination with a relatively upright body position which generated higher knee joint loads than the second strategy, forefoot striking in combination with more backwards leaning and pre-rotation of the trunk towards the new movement direction. A third strategy combined forefoot striking with less preorientation which increased the ACL relevant knee joint load compared to the second strategy. The identified movement strategies clearly pre-determine the injury risk during non-contact situations with the third strategy as the most unfavorable one. Compared to the study of isolated parameters, the analysis of the whole body movement allowed for detailed separation of more risky from less risky cutting strategies. These results give practical recommendations for the prevention of ACL injury. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Electricity markets volatility: estimates, regularities and risk management applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakamura, Masao [Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, 2053 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6 T 1Z2 (Canada)]. E-mail: masao.nakamura@sauder.ubc.ca; Nakashima, Tomoaki [Powerex Corp., Vancouver, BC, V6C 2X8 (Canada); Niimura, Takahide [TNC Systems Technologies, Burnaby, BC, V5 H 2W4 (Canada)

    2006-09-15

    The recent deregulation of the market for electric power in many parts of the US and Canada has expanded the set of potential tools for managing the types of risks faced by both generators and consumers of electric power. In particular manufacturing and other firms whose operations are powered by electricity now face, on a continuing basis, the engineering management decisions concerning whether they should buy or produce electricity, and if they are to buy or sell electricity, what types of contracts are optimum. These types of risk management decisions typically involve futures, forwards, options and other financial derivatives. The price and volatility of electric power are known to play an essential role in determining which of these instruments should be used. However, electricity as a commodity possesses certain special features not shared by other commodities and hence its risk properties are not yet well understood. In this paper we consider and test certain hypotheses about the properties of electricity price using recent market data. We find that electricity prices possess certain volatility and other systematic properties that can be characterized by the type and method of delivery of electricity. These properties can be used by firms in formulating their optimal demand and supply schedules of electric power.

  18. Electricity markets volatility: estimates, regularities and risk management applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Masao; Nakashima, Tomoaki; Niimura, Takahide

    2006-01-01

    The recent deregulation of the market for electric power in many parts of the US and Canada has expanded the set of potential tools for managing the types of risks faced by both generators and consumers of electric power. In particular manufacturing and other firms whose operations are powered by electricity now face, on a continuing basis, the engineering management decisions concerning whether they should buy or produce electricity, and if they are to buy or sell electricity, what types of contracts are optimum. These types of risk management decisions typically involve futures, forwards, options and other financial derivatives. The price and volatility of electric power are known to play an essential role in determining which of these instruments should be used. However, electricity as a commodity possesses certain special features not shared by other commodities and hence its risk properties are not yet well understood. In this paper we consider and test certain hypotheses about the properties of electricity price using recent market data. We find that electricity prices possess certain volatility and other systematic properties that can be characterized by the type and method of delivery of electricity. These properties can be used by firms in formulating their optimal demand and supply schedules of electric power

  19. ESTIMATING RISK ON THE CAPITAL MARKET WITH VaR METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinisa Bogdan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The two basic questions that every investor tries to answer before investment are questions about predicting return and risk. Risk and return are generally considered two positively correlated sizes, during the growth of risk it is expected increase of return to compensate the higher risk. The quantification of risk in the capital market represents the current topic since occurrence of securities. Together with estimated future returns it represents starting point of any investment. In this study it is described the history of the emergence of VaR methods, usefulness in assessing the risks of financial assets. Three main Value at Risk (VaR methodologies are decribed and explained in detail: historical method, parametric method and Monte Carlo method. After the theoretical review of VaR methods it is estimated risk of liquid stocks and portfolio from the Croatian capital market with historical and parametric VaR method, after which the results were compared and explained.

  20. An exploration of spatial risk assessment for soil protection: estimating risk and establishing priority areas for soil protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibblewhite, M G; Bellamy, P H; Brewer, T R; Graves, A R; Dawson, C A; Rickson, R J; Truckell, I; Stuart, J

    2014-03-01

    Methods for the spatial estimation of risk of harm to soil by erosion by water and wind and by soil organic matter decline are explored. Rates of harm are estimated for combinations of soil type and land cover (as a proxy for hazard frequency) and used to estimate risk of soil erosion and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) for 1 km(2)pixels. Scenarios are proposed for defining the acceptability of risk of harm to soil: the most precautionary one corresponds to no net harm after natural regeneration of soil (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance of exceeding an erosion rate of soils and a carbon stock decline of 0 tha(-1)y(-1) for organic soils). Areas at higher and lower than possible acceptable risk are mapped. The veracity of boundaries is compromised if areas of unacceptable risk are mapped to administrative boundaries. Errors in monitoring change in risk of harm to soil and inadequate information on risk reduction measures' efficacy, at landscape scales, make it impossible to use or monitor quantitative targets for risk reduction adequately. The consequences for priority area definition of expressing varying acceptable risk of harm to soil as a varying probability of exceeding a fixed level of harm, or, a varying level of harm being exceeded with a fixed probability, are discussed. Soil data and predictive models for rates of harm to soil would need considerable development and validation to implement a priority area approach robustly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Jumps and Betas: A New Framework for Disentangling and Estimating Systematic Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Todorov, Viktor; Bollerslev, Tim

    market portfolio, we find the estimated diffusive and jump betas with respect to the market to be quite dif- ferent for many of the stocks. Our findings have direct and important implications for empirical asset pricing finance and practical portfolio and risk management decisions.......We provide a new theoretical framework for disentangling and estimating sensitivity towards systematic diffusive and jump risks in the context of factor pricing models. Our estimates of the sensitivities towards systematic risks, or betas, are based on the notion of increasingly finer sampled...

  2. Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Paudel

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on these results, flood insurance premiums are estimated using two different practical methods that each account in different ways for an insurer's risk aversion and the dispersion rate of loss data. This study is of practical relevance because insurers have been considering the introduction of flood insurance in the Netherlands, which is currently not generally available.

  3. Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2013-03-01

    This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on these results, flood insurance premiums are estimated using two different practical methods that each account in different ways for an insurer's risk aversion and the dispersion rate of loss data. This study is of practical relevance because insurers have been considering the introduction of flood insurance in the Netherlands, which is currently not generally available.

  4. A Generic Algorithm to Estimate LAI, FAPAR and FCOVER Variables from SPOT4_HRVIR and Landsat Sensors: Evaluation of the Consistency and Comparison with Ground Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjuan Li

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The leaf area index (LAI and the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by green vegetation (FAPAR are essential climatic variables in surface process models. FCOVER is also important to separate vegetation and soil for energy balance processes. Currently, several LAI, FAPAR and FCOVER satellite products are derived moderate to coarse spatial resolution. The launch of Sentinel-2 in 2015 will provide data at decametric resolution with a high revisit frequency to allow quantifying the canopy functioning at the local to regional scales. The aim of this study is thus to evaluate the performances of a neural network based algorithm to derive LAI, FAPAR and FCOVER products at decametric spatial resolution and high temporal sampling. The algorithm is generic, i.e., it is applied without any knowledge of the landcover. A time series of high spatial resolution SPOT4_HRVIR (16 scenes and Landsat 8 (18 scenes images acquired in 2013 over the France southwestern site were used to generate the LAI, FAPAR and FCOVER products. For each sensor and each biophysical variable, a neural network was first trained over PROSPECT+SAIL radiative transfer model simulations of top of canopy reflectance data for green, red, near-infra red and short wave infra-red bands. Our results show a good spatial and temporal consistency between the variables derived from both sensors: almost half the pixels show an absolute difference between SPOT and LANDSAT estimates of lower that 0.5 unit for LAI, and 0.05 unit for FAPAR and FCOVER. Finally, downward-looking digital hemispherical cameras were completed over the main land cover types to validate the accuracy of the products. Results show that the derived products are strongly correlated with the field measurements (R2 > 0.79, corresponding to a RMSE = 0.49 for LAI, RMSE = 0.10 (RMSE = 0.12 for black-sky (white sky FAPAR and RMSE = 0.15 for FCOVER. It is concluded that the proposed generic algorithm provides a good

  5. Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    1990-01-01

    Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

  6. Estimates o the risks associated with dam failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayyaswamy, P.; Hauss, B.; Hseih, T.; Moscati, A.; Hicks, T.E.; Okrent, D.

    1974-03-01

    The probabilities and potential consequences of dam failure in California, primarily due to large earthquakes, was estimated, taking as examples eleven dams having a relatively large population downstream. Mortalities in the event of dam failure range from 11,000 to 260,000, while damage to property may be as high as $720 million. It was assumed that an intensity IX or X earthquake (on the Modified Mercalli Scale) would be sufficient to completely fail earthen dams. Predictions of dam failure were based on the recurrence times of such earthquakes. For the dams studied, the recurrence intervals for an intensity IX earthquake varied between 20 and 800 years; for an intensity X between 50 and 30,000 years. For the Lake Chabot and San Pablo dams (respectively 20, 30 years recurrent earthquake times for a intensity X) the associated consequences are: 34,000 (Lake Chabot) and 30,000 (San Pablo) people killed; damage $140 million and $77 million. Evaculation was found to ameliorate the consequences slightly in most cases because of the short time available. Calculations are based on demography, and assume 10 foot floodwaters will drown all in their path and destroy all one-unit homes in the flood area. Damage estimates reflect losses incurred by structural damage to buildings and do not include loss of income. Hence the economic impact is probably understated.

  7. Estimates of health risks associated with uranium transportation by air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, M.; Skagius, K.; Ericsson, A.M.; Karlsson, L.G.; Markstroem, A.

    1989-01-01

    There is today an increased interest for air transport of large quantities of uranium compounds. In this report the health risks from an aircrash where uraniumhexafluoride, uraniumdioxide powder, low enriched unirradiated fuel used in Swedish power reactors and unirradiated MTR-fuel used in the research reactor in Studsvik, is analysed. The radiation doses to personnel and the general public is calculated as well as the ground contamination from the spreaded material. Also air concentration of hydrogenflouride, from uraniumhexaflouride reacting with moisture in the air, is calculated. A number of intermediate results are presented. (authors) (69 refs.)

  8. Multifactorial diseases and risk estimations: special reference of mutation component

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasuda, Norikazu

    1995-01-01

    Genetic effects of radiation in man have been tractable such aspects as genes, chromosomes, genomes, individuals and populations. In spite of enormous interest from an academic view point on the mechanism studies, it is rather a little study on incidence or prevalence of genetic diseases as hereditary effects when human population in general have been exposed by radiation. Such studies are valuable for radiation protection as well as radiation public health. In this review, I have attempted to reconcile some fragments evidences to derive an important conclusion: the hereditary effects of radiation could not be detected from examination of disease incidence (or prevalence) for the genetic risk. (J.P.N.)

  9. Comparison of prospective risk estimates for postoperative complications: human vs computer model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasgow, Robert E; Hawn, Mary T; Hosokawa, Patrick W; Henderson, William G; Min, Sung-Joon; Richman, Joshua S; Tomeh, Majed G; Campbell, Darrell; Neumayer, Leigh A

    2014-02-01

    Surgical quality improvement tools such as NSQIP are limited in their ability to prospectively affect individual patient care by the retrospective audit and feedback nature of their design. We hypothesized that statistical models using patient preoperative characteristics could prospectively provide risk estimates of postoperative adverse events comparable to risk estimates provided by experienced surgeons, and could be useful for stratifying preoperative assessment of patient risk. This was a prospective observational cohort. Using previously developed models for 30-day postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, cardiac, thromboembolic, pulmonary, renal, and surgical site infection (SSI) complications, model and surgeon estimates of risk were compared with each other and with actual 30-day outcomes. The study cohort included 1,791 general surgery patients operated on between June 2010 and January 2012. Observed outcomes were mortality (0.2%), overall morbidity (8.2%), and pulmonary (1.3%), cardiac (0.3%), thromboembolism (0.2%), renal (0.4%), and SSI (3.8%) complications. Model and surgeon risk estimates showed significant correlation (p risk for overall morbidity to be low, the model-predicted risk and observed morbidity rates were 2.8% and 4.1%, respectively, compared with 10% and 18% in perceived high risk patients. Patients in the highest quartile of model-predicted risk accounted for 75% of observed mortality and 52% of morbidity. Across a broad range of general surgical operations, we confirmed that the model risk estimates are in fairly good agreement with risk estimates of experienced surgeons. Using these models prospectively can identify patients at high risk for morbidity and mortality, who could then be targeted for intervention to reduce postoperative complications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifter, Atilla

    2011-06-01

    This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

  11. Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coresh, Josef; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H; Appel, Lawrence J; Arima, Hisatomi; Chadban, Steven J; Cirillo, Massimo; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Green, Jamie A; Heine, Gunnar H; Inker, Lesley A; Irie, Fujiko; Ishani, Areef; Ix, Joachim H; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Marks, Angharad; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Shalev, Varda; Shankar, Anoop; Wen, Chi Pang; de Jong, Paul E; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Stengel, Benedicte; Gansevoort, Ron T; Levey, Andrew S

    2014-06-25

    The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2

  12. Uncertainty Estimation Cheat Sheet for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Paul T.; Al Hassan, Mohammad; Ring, Robert W.

    2017-01-01

    "Uncertainty analysis itself is uncertain, therefore, you cannot evaluate it exactly," Source Uncertain Quantitative results for aerospace engineering problems are influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables as well as through the propagation of these uncertainties up to the result. Uncertainty can be thought of as a measure of the 'goodness' of a result and is typically represented as statistical dispersion. This paper will explain common measures of centrality and dispersion; and-with examples-will provide guidelines for how they may be estimated to ensure effective technical contributions to decision-making.

  13. An Estimation of Risk Impact of Anticipated Transients without Scram for a KSNP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Seok Jung; Yang Joon Eon

    2006-07-15

    Anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) event is an accident sequence with large risk impact, while it is a beyond design basis accident (BDBA). We have estimated a risk due to an ATWS accident sequence for the KSNP in consideration of the recent accident analysis results. The SECY-83-293's model for the CE type plants has been used in a risk estimation of ATWS. A risk estimation due to an ATWS for the KSNP has been performed in consideration of the recent ATWS accident analysis results and plant information. We reviewed influence factors in the SECY-83-293's model, these factors have been re-estimated by using current information and PSA results for a KSNP. A risk due to an ATWS has been estimated as 3.6E-6/yr of CDF by using domestic aspect and recent KSNP information. A sensitivity study for the UET variation has been performed. As the results of the sensitivity analysis, the overall risk spectrum by the UET variation is bounded between 7.80E-7/yr to 8.00E-6/yr of CDF. As the result of the current study, the risk due to an ATWS accident sequence has been identified as a considerable impact on the entire risk of a KSNP, so the risk estimation of that plant should be upgraded by considering the recent information like the ATWS accident analysis results. Finally, we expect that this study can become a basis for the entire risk estimation of the referred plant.

  14. R2 TRI facilities with 1999-2011 risk related estimates throughout the census blockgroup

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset delineates the distribution of estimate risk from the TRI facilities for 1999 - 2011 throughout the census blockgroup of the region using Office of...

  15. Effect of water resource development and management on lymphatic filariasis, and estimates of populations at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlanger, Tobias E; Keiser, Jennifer; Caldas De Castro, Marcia; Bos, Robert; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2005-09-01

    Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating disease overwhelmingly caused by Wuchereria bancrofti, which is transmitted by various mosquito species. Here, we present a systematic literature review with the following objectives: (i) to establish global and regional estimates of populations at risk of LF with particular consideration of water resource development projects, and (ii) to assess the effects of water resource development and management on the frequency and transmission dynamics of the disease. We estimate that globally, 2 billion people are at risk of LF. Among them, there are 394.5 million urban dwellers without access to improved sanitation and 213 million rural dwellers living in close proximity to irrigation. Environmental changes due to water resource development and management consistently led to a shift in vector species composition and generally to a strong proliferation of vector populations. For example, in World Health Organization (WHO) subregions 1 and 2, mosquito densities of the Anopheles gambiae complex and Anopheles funestus were up to 25-fold higher in irrigated areas when compared with irrigation-free sites. Although the infection prevalence of LF often increased after the implementation of a water project, there was no clear association with clinical symptoms. Concluding, there is a need to assess and quantify changes of LF transmission parameters and clinical manifestations over the entire course of water resource developments. Where resources allow, integrated vector management should complement mass drug administration, and broad-based monitoring and surveillance of the disease should become an integral part of large-scale waste management and sanitation programs, whose basic rationale lies in a systemic approach to city, district, and regional level health services and disease prevention.

  16. Use of doubling doses for the estimation of genetic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Searle, A.G.

    1977-01-01

    Doubling dose estimates derived from radiation experiments in mice are proving of great value for the assessment of genetic hazards to man from extra radiation exposure because they allow the latest information on mutation frequencies and the incidence of genetic disease in man to be used in the assessment process. The similarity in spectra of 'spontaneous' and induced mutations increases coincidence in the validity of this approach. Data on rates of induction of dominant and recessive mutations, translocations and X-chromosome loss are used to derive doubling doses for chronic exposures to both low and high-LET radiations. Values for γ and X-rays, derived from both male and female germ-cells, fall inside a fairly small range and it is felt that the use of an overall figure of 100 rads is justifiable for protection purposes. Values for neutrons and α-particles, obtained from male germ-cells, varied according to neutron energy etc. but clustered around a value of 5 rads for fission neutrons

  17. Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Kirk R; Stansfield, Richard

    2017-08-01

    To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Estimation of lung cancer risk from environmental exposure to airborne plutonium from the Rocky Flats Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutherland, J.V.

    1983-01-01

    A three-phase study was undertaken to (1) determine the nature of disagreement among scientists concerning risk of environmental release of plutonium, (2) develop an analytic procedure for determining risk based on clearly stated principles defensible by reference to the literature, and (3) develop estimates of radiation dose to the lung from exposure to plutonium in ambient air for the purpose of evaluating risk to an individual with a specified age and smoking history. Eleven epidemiologists, biostatisticians and radiation scientists participated in Phase I of the study. It was shown that no clearly stated analytical principles for risk estimation were in common use, resulting in widely divergent risk estimates. Five of these disagreeing scientists in Phase I (including all cancer epidemiologists in the Denver metropolitan area) were chosen for Phase II of the study. A single analytic procedure was developed which was unanimously agreed upon. This procedure was dependent on the estimate of dose to the lung from ambient air levels of Rocky Flats plutonium. In Phase III of the study, a panel of four radiation scientists developed a procedure for estimation of dose to the lung from chronic exposure to plutonium ambient air levels. Results from all phases of the study were used to develop a method for estimation of relative risk of lung cancer for an individual, given plutonium dose to the lung, age, smoking history and other radiation exposure

  19. Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniyama, Yukari; Katanoda, Kota; Charvat, Hadrien; Hori, Megumi; Ohno, Yuko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2017-11-01

    To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category. Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method. The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively. Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  20. The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

    2017-12-01

    Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

  1. Estimation of baseline lifetime risk of developed cancer related to radiation exposure in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xiaoliang; Niu Haowei; Sun Quanfu; Ma Weidong

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To introduce the general international method for estimation of lifetime risk of developed cancer, and to estimate the lifetime risk baseline values of several kinds of cancers related to radiation exposures in China. Methods: The risk estimation was based on the data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report (2010) and China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook (2009), and made according to the method previously published by National Cancer Institute (NCI) in USA. Results: The lifetime risk of all cancer in China in 2007 was estimated to be 27.77%, that of lung cancer 5.96%, that of breast cancer for female 3.34%, that of all leukemia 0.14%, that of thyroid cancer 0.37%. The lifetime risks of all cancer were estimated to be 32.74% for males and 24.73% for females, and that was 36.47% for urban residents and 26.79% for rural people. Conclusions: The lifetime risk of all cancer for males in 2007 was about 1.25 times as much as that for females. The value of all cancer for urban residents was about 1.35 times as much as that for rural residents. The lifetime risk of developed cancers in 2007 in China is lower than that in the developed countries,such as Japan. (authors)

  2. Crossover effect of spouse weekly working hours on estimated 10-years risk of cardiovascular disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo-Yeol Kang

    Full Text Available To investigate the association between spouse weekly working hours (SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD.This cross-sectional study was based on the data obtained from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2012. Data of 16,917 participants (8,330 husbands, 8,587 wives were used for this analysis. The participants' clinical data were collected to estimate the 10-years risk of CVD, as well as weekly working hours. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to investigate the association between SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of CVD. We also performed a stratified analysis according to each participant's and their spouse's employment status.Compared to those whose spouses worked 30 hours per week, estimated 10-years risk of CVD was significantly higher as SWWH increase among those whose spouses worked >30 hours per week. After adjusting for covariates, the odds ratio for high CVD risk was found to increase as SWWH increased, up to 2.52 among husbands and 2.43 among wives. We also found that the association between SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of CVD varied according to the employment status. Analysis of each component included in the CVD appraisal model showed that SWWH had close relationship with diabetes in men, and smoking habits in women.Spouse's long working hours are associated with individual's risk of CVD in future, especially among husbands.

  3. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

    2011-06-22

    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

  4. An update on standards for radiation in the environment and associated estimates of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kocher, D.C.

    1989-01-01

    This presentation reviews current and proposed standards, recommendations, and guidances for limiting routine radiation exposures of the public, and estimates the risk corresponding to standards, recommendations, and guidances. These estimates provide a common basis for comparing different criteria for limiting public exposures to radiation, as well as hazardous chemicals

  5. REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainti...

  6. Estimation of breast doses and breast cancer risk associated with repeated fluoroscopic chest examinations of women with tuberculosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boice, J.D. Jr.; Rosenstein, M.; Trout, E.D.

    1978-01-01

    A methodology is presented to estimate cumulative breast dose and breast cancer risk for women exposed to repeated fluoroscopic chest examinations during air collapse therapy for pulmonary tuberculosis. Medical record abstraction, physician interview, patient contact, machine exposure measurements, and absorbed dose computations were combined to estimate average breast doses for 1047 Massachusetts women who were treated between 1930 and 1954. The methodology presented considers breast size and composition, patient orientation, x-ray field size and location, beam quality, type of examination, machine exposure rate, and exposure time during fluoroscopic examinations. The best estimate for the risk of radiation-induced cancer for the women living longer than 10 years after initial fluoroscopic exposure is 6.2 excess breast cancers per million woman-year-rad with 90% confidence limits of 2.8 and 10.7 cancers/10 6 WY-rad. When breast cancer risk is considered as a function of absorbed dose in the breast, instead of as a function of the number of fluoroscopic examinations, a linear dose--response relationship over the range of estimated doses is consistent with the data. However, because of the uncertainty due to small-sample variability and because of the wide range of assumptions regarding certain fluoroscopy conditions, other dose--response relationships are compatible with the data

  7. A framework for consistent estimation of leaf area index, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, and surface albedo from MODIS time-series data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xiao, Zhiqiang; Liang, Shunlin; Wang, Jindi

    2015-01-01

    -series MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data. If the reflectance data showed snow-free areas, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique was used to estimate leaf area index (LAI) for a two-layer canopy reflectance model (ACRM) by combining predictions from a phenology...... model and the MODIS surface reflectance data. The estimated LAI values were then input into the ACRM to calculate the surface albedo and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR). For snow-covered areas, the surface albedo was calculated as the underlying vegetation canopy...... albedo plus the weighted distance between the underlying vegetation canopy albedo and the albedo over deep snow. The LAI/FAPAR and surface albedo values estimated using this framework were compared with MODIS collection 5 eight-day 1-km LAI/FAPAR products (MOD15A2) and 500-m surface albedo product (MCD43...

  8. Cancer risks in BRCA2 families: estimates for sites other than breast and ovary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asperen, C. J.; Brohet, R. M.; Meijers-Heijboer, E. J.; Hoogerbrugge, N.; Verhoef, S.; Vasen, H. F. A.; Ausems, M. G. E. M.; Menko, F. H.; Gomez Garcia, E. B.; Klijn, J. G. M.; Hogervorst, F. B. L.; van Houwelingen, J. C.; van't Veer, L. J.; Rookus, M. A.; van Leeuwen, F. E.

    2005-01-01

    In BRCA2 mutation carriers, increased risks have been reported for several cancer sites besides breast and ovary. As most of the families included in earlier reports were selected on the basis of multiple breast/ovarian cancer cases, it is possible that risk estimates may differ in mutation carriers

  9. Validating diagnoses from hospital discharge registers change risk estimates for acute coronary syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Albert Marni; Schmidt, E.B.; Dethlefsen, Claus

    2007-01-01

    of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) diagnoses identified in a hospital discharge register changed the relative risk estimates of well-established risk factors for ACS. Methods All first-time ACS diagnoses (n=1138) in the Danish National Patient Registry were identified among male participants in the Danish...

  10. Stroke risk estimation across nine European countries in the MORGAM project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borglykke, Anders; Andreasen, Anne H; Kuulasmaa, Kari

    2010-01-01

    Previous tools for stroke risk assessment have either been developed for specific populations or lack data on non-fatal events or uniform data collection. The purpose of this study was to develop a stepwise model for the estimation of 10 year risk of stroke in nine different countries across Europe....

  11. Insulin sensitivity and mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: There is at present the dearth of information on the possible contribution of insulin resistance to scores obtained from mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Aim: This study determined the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance.

  12. The additivity of radionuclide and chemical risk estimates in performance evaluation of mixed-waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Till, J.E.; Meyer, K.R.

    1990-01-01

    Methods for assessing radioactive waste sites that contain chemical constituents are in the formative stages. In evaluating these sites, a key concern will be the hazard to personnel involved in cleanup work and to the general population. This paper focuses on what we have learned from pathway analysis and risk assessment about providing a combined estimate of risk from exposure to both chemicals and radionuclides. Quantitative radiation risk assessment involves a high degree of uncertainty. Chemical risk assessment generally does not provide quantitative results. Thus, it is not currently possible to develop a useful, quantitative combined risk assessment for mixed-waste sites

  13. Estimating radiation-induced cancer risk using MVK two-stage model for carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, M.; Kusama, T.; Aoki, Y.

    1993-01-01

    Based on the carcinogenesis model as proposed by Moolgavkar et al., time-dependent relative risk models were derived for projecting the time variation in excess relative risk. If it is assumed that each process is described by time-independent linear dose-response relationship, the time variation in excess relative risk is influenced by the parameter related with the promotion process. The risk model based carcinogenesis theory would play a marked role in estimating radiation-induced cancer risk in constructing a projection model or transfer model

  14. Value-at-Risk analysis using ARMAX GARCHX approach for estimating risk of banking subsector stock return’s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike

    2018-03-01

    Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.

  15. Aspects of risk analysis application to estimation of nuclear accidents and tests consequences and intervention management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demin, V.F.; Hedemann-Jensen, P.; Rolevich, I.V.; Schneider, T.S.; Sobolev, B.G.

    1996-01-01

    For assessment of accident consequences and a post-accident management a risk analysis methodology and data bank (BARD) with allowance for radiation and non-radiation risk causes should be developed and used. Aspects of these needs and developments are considered. Some illustrative results of health risk estimation made with BARD for the Bryansk region territory with relatively high radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl accident are presented

  16. Assessing the risk of Legionnaires' disease: the inhalation exposure model and the estimated risk in residential bathrooms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azuma, Kenichi; Uchiyama, Iwao; Okumura, Jiro

    2013-02-01

    Legionella are widely found in the built environment. Patients with Legionnaires' disease have been increasing in Japan; however, health risks from Legionella bacteria in the environment are not appropriately assessed. We performed a quantitative health risk assessment modeled on residential bathrooms in the Adachi outbreak area and estimated risk levels. The estimated risks in the Adachi outbreak approximately corresponded to the risk levels exponentially extrapolated into lower levels on the basis of infection and mortality rates calculated from actual outbreaks, suggesting that the model of Legionnaires' disease in residential bathrooms was adequate to predict disease risk for the evaluated outbreaks. Based on this model, the infection and mortality risk levels per year in 10 CFU/100 ml (100 CFU/L) of the Japanese water quality guideline value were approximately 10(-2) and 10(-5), respectively. However, acceptable risk levels of infection and mortality from Legionnaires' disease should be adjusted to approximately 10(-4) and 10(-7), respectively, per year. Therefore, a reference value of 0.1 CFU/100 ml (1 CFU/L) as a water quality guideline for Legionella bacteria is recommended. This value is occasionally less than the actual detection limit. Legionella levels in water system should be maintained as low as reasonably achievable (<1 CFU/L). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The Boehringer Ingelheim employee study (Part 2): 10-year cardiovascular diseases risk estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempf, K; Martin, S; Döhring, C; Dugi, K; Haastert, B; Schneider, M

    2016-10-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) may cause an economic burden to companies, but CVD risk estimations specific to working populations are lacking. To estimate the 10-year CVD risk in the Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) employee cohort and analyse the potential effect of hypothetical risk reduction interventions. We estimated CVD risk using the Framingham (FRS), PROCAM (PRS) and Reynolds (RRS) risk scores, using cross-sectional baseline data on BI Pharma employees collected from 2005 to 2011. Results were compared using Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon tests. The predictive ability of the score estimates was assessed using receiver-operating characteristics analyses. Among the 4005 study subjects, we estimated 10-year CVD risks of 35% (FRS), 9% (PRS) and 6% (RRS) for men and 10% (FRS), 4% (PRS) and 1% (RRS) for women. One hundred and thirty-four (6%) men and 111 (6%) women employees had current CVD. The best predictors of prevalent CVD were the FRS and the RRS for men [area-under-the-curve 0.62 (0.57-0.67) for both]. A hypothetical intervention that would improve systolic blood pressure, HbA1c (for diabetes), C-reactive protein, triglycerides and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 10% each would potentially reduce expected CVD cases by 36-41% in men and 30-45% in women, and if smoking cessation is incorporated, by 39-45% and 30-55%, respectively, depending on the pre-intervention risk score. There was a substantial risk of developing CVD in this working cohort. Occupational health programmes with lifestyle interventions for high-risk individuals may be an effective risk reduction measure. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

  19. A risk adjustment approach to estimating the burden of skin disease in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Henry W; Collins, Scott A B; Resneck, Jack S; Bolognia, Jean; Hodge, Julie A; Rohrer, Thomas A; Van Beek, Marta J; Margolis, David J; Sober, Arthur J; Weinstock, Martin A; Nerenz, David R; Begolka, Wendy Smith; Moyano, Jose V

    2018-01-01

    Direct insurance claims tabulation and risk adjustment statistical methods can be used to estimate health care costs associated with various diseases. In this third manuscript derived from the new national Burden of Skin Disease Report from the American Academy of Dermatology, a risk adjustment method that was based on modeling the average annual costs of individuals with or without specific diseases, and specifically tailored for 24 skin disease categories, was used to estimate the economic burden of skin disease. The results were compared with the claims tabulation method used in the first 2 parts of this project. The risk adjustment method estimated the direct health care costs of skin diseases to be $46 billion in 2013, approximately $15 billion less than estimates using claims tabulation. For individual skin diseases, the risk adjustment cost estimates ranged from 11% to 297% of those obtained using claims tabulation for the 10 most costly skin disease categories. Although either method may be used for purposes of estimating the costs of skin disease, the choice of method will affect the end result. These findings serve as an important reference for future discussions about the method chosen in health care payment models to estimate both the cost of skin disease and the potential cost impact of care changes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The use of chemical and radionuclide risk estimates in site performance evaluation of mixed waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Till, J.E.; Meyer, K.R.

    1988-01-01

    Many radioactive waste sites contain not only radioactive material but also varying amounts of chemical waste. The use of such procedures implies some risk at any exposure level, and thus requires that an exposure level be determined that corresponds to an acceptable risk to an individual or a population. Although the uncertainties and limitations of these methods are of concern, the assumption has been generally adopted that the human dose response for all carcinogens is linear, with no threshold occurring at low levels of exposure. With the move toward decontamination programs and clean-up of various mixed waste sites throughout the US, there is interest in the possibility that risk estimates calculated individually for radionuclides and for chemicals may be combined to reflect the total risk for each site. The purpose of this paper is to examine the feasibility of combining risk estimates during risk/benefit analyses. For a variety of reasons, the state of radiation risk assessment is more advanced than that of chemical risk assessment. The reasons for this disparity are summarized in this paper. Quantitative radiation risk assessment is currently being performed, but involves a high degree of uncertainty. Chemical risk assessment in general does not allow quantitative results bracketed by uncertainty analysis. Therefore, it is concluded that it is currently not possible to develop a useful, quantitative combined risk assessment for a mixed waste site, but that it may be possible to develop such a capability in the future

  1. Method of risk estimates for genetic, leukemogenic and carcinogenic effects from medical and occupational exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)

    1980-12-01

    For the risk estimate of fatal malignancies, an effective dose was proposed on the basis of the assumption that the risk should be equal whether the whole body irradiated uniformly or whether there is non-uniform irradiation. The effective dose was defined by the product of organ or tissue doses and a weighting factor representing the proportion of risk factor for a fatal malignancy resulting from organ or tissue irradiation to the total malignant factor. The risk of malignancies can be derived by multiplying the malignant significant factor by the product of the risk factor and the effective dose. For the genetic risk, a significant factor was a relative child expectancy and organ or tissue doses were gonad doses. And, for the leukemogenic risk, a significant factor was the leukemia significant factor and organ or tissue dose was mean bone marrow dose. The present method makes it easy to estimate the risk for individuals and population from medical and occupational exposures. The variation with age and sex of risk rates for stochastic effects was discussed, and the present data on risk rates were compared with the variation of risk rates recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection.

  2. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  3. The impact of advances in human molecular biology on radiation genetic risk estimation in man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sankaranarayanan, K.

    1996-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the conceptual framework, the data base, methods and assumptions used thus far to assess the genetic risks of exposure of human populations to ionising radiation. These are then re-examined in the contemporary context of the rapidly expanding knowledge of the molecular biology of human mendelian diseases. This re-examination reveals that (i) many of the assumptions used thus far in radiation genetic risk estimation may not be fully valid and (ii) the current genetic risk estimates are probably conservative, but provide an adequate margin of safety for radiological protection. The view is expressed that further advances in the field of genetic risk estimation will be largely driven by advances in the molecular biology of human genetic diseases. (author). 37 refs., 5 tabs

  4. Effects of risk estimation tendency on risk perception at the Tohoku Disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakagawa, Yuri; Tsuchida, Shoji; Tsujikawa, Norifumi; Shiotani, Takamasa

    2012-01-01

    The Tohoku Disaster showed the underlying risks of earthquake, tsunami, nuclear power plant accidents and debris removal. The ability to understand the risk and act appropriately has been widely discussed among the professionals as well within the community. In Oct 2011, an Online survey. Using the correspondence analysis approach, the data collected the free-answer question 'What do you remember most regarding news on the Tohoku Disaster' was analyzed. The relationship between the cognitive trade-off factors, zero-risk factors and elaboration tendency factors, and risk perception among the people following the Tohoku Disaster were discussed. (author)

  5. Association between subjective risk perception and objective risk estimation in patients with atrial fibrillation: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zweiker, David; Zweiker, Robert; Winkler, Elisabeth; Roesch, Konstantina; Schumacher, Martin; Stepan, Vinzenz; Krippl, Peter; Bauer, Norbert; Heine, Martin; Reicht, Gerhard; Zweiker, Gudrun; Sprenger, Martin; Watzinger, Norbert

    2017-09-25

    Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is state-of-the-art therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common arrhythmia worldwide. However, little is known about the perception of patients with AF and how it correlates with risk scores used by their physicians. Therefore, we correlated patients' estimates of their own stroke and bleeding risk with the objectively predicted individual risk using CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores. Cross-sectional prevalence study using convenience sampling and telephone follow-up. Eight hospital departments and one general practitioner in Austria. Patients' perception of stroke and bleeding risk was opposed to commonly used risk scoring. Patients with newly diagnosed AF and indication for anticoagulation. Comparison of subjective risk perception with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores showing possible discrepancies between subjective and objective risk estimation. Patients' judgement of their own knowledge on AF and education were also correlated with accuracy of subjective risk appraisal. Ninety-one patients (age 73±11 years, 45% female) were included in this study. Subjective stroke and bleeding risk estimation did not correlate with risk scores (ρ=0.08 and ρ=0.17). The majority of patients (57%) underestimated the individual stroke risk. Patients feared stroke more than bleeding (67% vs 10%). There was no relationship between accurate perception of stroke and bleeding risks and education level. However, we found a correlation between the patients' judgement of their own knowledge of AF and correct assessment of individual stroke risk (ρ=0.24, p=0.02). During follow-up, patients experienced the following events: death (n=5), stroke (n=2), bleeding (n=1). OAC discontinuation rate despite indication was 3%. In this cross-sectional analysis of OAC-naive patients with AF, we found major differences between patients' perceptions and physicians' assessments of risks and benefits of OAC. To ensure shared decision-making and informed

  6. Comparison of Paper-and-Pencil versus Web Administration of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS): Risk Behavior Prevalence Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Danice K.; Brener, Nancy D.; Kann, Laura; Denniston, Maxine M.; McManus, Tim; Kyle, Tonja M.; Roberts, Alice M.; Flint, Katherine H.; Ross, James G.

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined whether paper-and-pencil and Web surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent risk behavior prevalence estimates. Data were from a methods study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in spring 2008. Intact classes of 9th- or 10th-grade students were assigned randomly to complete a…

  7. Dynamic Estimation of Volatility Risk Premia and Investor Risk Aversion from Option-Implied and Realized Volatilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Gibson, Michael; Zhou, Hao

    experiment confirms that the procedure works well in practice. Implementing the procedure with actual S&P500 option-implied volatilities and high-frequency five-minute-based realized volatilities indicates significant temporal dependencies in the estimated stochastic volatility risk premium, which we in turn...

  8. Geostatistical risk estimation at waste disposal sites in the presence of hot spots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komnitsas, Kostas; Modis, Kostas

    2009-01-01

    The present paper aims to estimate risk by using geostatistics at the wider coal mining/waste disposal site of Belkovskaya, Tula region, in Russia. In this area the presence of hot spots causes a spatial trend in the mean value of the random field and a non-Gaussian data distribution. Prior to application of geostatistics, subtraction of trend and appropriate smoothing and transformation of the data into a Gaussian form were carried out; risk maps were then generated for the wider study area in order to assess the probability of exceeding risk thresholds. Finally, the present paper discusses the need for homogenization of soil risk thresholds regarding hazardous elements that will enhance reliability of risk estimation and enable application of appropriate rehabilitation actions in contaminated areas.

  9. Scoring Systems for Estimating the Risk of Anticoagulant-Associated Bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, Anna L; Fang, Margaret C

    2017-07-01

    Anticoagulant medications are frequently used to prevent and treat thromboembolic disease. However, the benefits of anticoagulants must be balanced with a careful assessment of the risk of bleeding complications that can ensue from their use. Several bleeding risk scores are available, including the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and HEMORR 2 HAGES risk assessment tools, and can be used to help estimate patients' risk for bleeding on anticoagulants. These tools vary by their individual risk components and in how they define and weigh clinical factors. However, it is not yet clear how best to integrate bleeding risk tools into clinical practice. Current bleeding risk scores generally have modest predictive ability and limited ability to predict the most devastating complication of anticoagulation, intracranial hemorrhage. In clinical practice, bleeding risk tools should be paired with a formal determination of thrombosis risk, as their results may be most influential for patients at the lower end of thrombosis risk, as well as for highlighting potentially modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Use of bleeding risk scores may assist clinicians and patients in making informed and individualized anticoagulation decisions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  10. Cardiovascular risk estimation by professionally active cardiovascular nurses: results from the Basel 2005 Nurses Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholte op Reimer, Wilma J M; Moons, Philip; De Geest, Sabina; Fridlund, Bengt; Heikkilä, Johanna; Jaarsma, Tiny; Lenzen, Mattie; Martensson, Jan; Norekvål, Tone M; Smith, Karen; Stewart, Simon; Strömberg, Anna; Thompson, David R

    2006-12-01

    Nurses play a key role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and one would, therefore, expect them to have a heightened awareness of the need for systematic screening and their own CVD risk profile. The aim of this study was to examine personal awareness of CVD risk among a cohort of cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference. Of the 340 delegates attending the 5th annual Spring Meeting on Cardiovascular Nursing (Basel, Switzerland, 2005), 287 (83%) completed a self-report questionnaire to assess their own risk factors for CVD. Delegates were also asked to give an estimation of their absolute total risk of experiencing a fatal CVD event in the next 10 years. Level of agreement between self-reported CVD risk estimation and their actual risk according to the SCORE risk assessment system was compared by calculating weighted Kappa (kappa(w)). Overall, 109 responders (38%) self-reported having either pre-existing CVD (only 2%), one or more markedly raised CVD risk factors, a high total risk of fatal CVD (> or =5% in 10 years) or a strong family history of CVD. About half of this cohort (53%) did not know their own total cholesterol level. Less than half (45%) reported having a 10-year risk of fatal CVD of or =5%. Based on the SCORE risk function, the estimated 10-year risk of a fatal CVD event was or =5% risk of such an event. Overall, less than half (46%) of this cohort's self-reported CVD risk corresponded with that calculated using the SCORE risk function (kappa(w)=0.27). Most cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference in 2005 poorly understood their own CVD risk profile, and the agreement between their self-reported 10-year risk of a fatal CVD and their CVD risk using SCORE was only fair. Given the specialist nature of this conference, our findings clearly demonstrate a need to improve overall nursing awareness of the role and importance of systematic CVD risk assessment.

  11. Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Massad

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections, from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived straightforwardly. Further derivations allow the calculation of the latent and susceptible mosquitoes' densities, the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes' density. The method is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue infested areas but the same procedures apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like Zika and chikungunya viruses.

  12. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabedo, J.D.; Moya, I.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach. developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification. (author)

  13. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David Cabedo, J.; Moya, Ismael

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach, developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification

  14. Schistosomiasis and water resources development: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimates of people at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinmann, Peter; Keiser, Jennifer; Bos, Robert; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2006-07-01

    An estimated 779 million people are at risk of schistosomiasis, of whom 106 million (13.6%) live in irrigation schemes or in close proximity to large dam reservoirs. We identified 58 studies that examined the relation between water resources development projects and schistosomiasis, primarily in African settings. We present a systematic literature review and meta-analysis with the following objectives: (1) to update at-risk populations of schistosomiasis and number of people infected in endemic countries, and (2) to quantify the risk of water resources development and management on schistosomiasis. Using 35 datasets from 24 African studies, our meta-analysis showed pooled random risk ratios of 2.4 and 2.6 for urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively, among people living adjacent to dam reservoirs. The risk ratio estimate for studies evaluating the effect of irrigation on urinary schistosomiasis was in the range 0.02-7.3 (summary estimate 1.1) and that on intestinal schistosomiasis in the range 0.49-23.0 (summary estimate 4.7). Geographic stratification showed important spatial differences, idiosyncratic to the type of water resources development. We conclude that the development and management of water resources is an important risk factor for schistosomiasis, and hence strategies to mitigate negative effects should become integral parts in the planning, implementation, and operation of future water projects.

  15. Estimation of transient increases in bleeding risk associated with physical activity in children with haemophilia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Latimer Jane

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although it is widely appreciated that vigorous physical activity can increase the risk of bleeding episodes in children with haemophilia, the magnitude of the increase in risk is not known. Accurate risk estimates could inform decisions made by children with haemophilia and their parents about participation in physical activity and aid the development of optimal prophylactic schedules. The aim of this study is to provide an accurate estimate of the risks of bleeding associated with vigorous physical activity in children with haemophilia. Methods/Design The study will be a case-crossover study nested within a prospective cohort study. Children with moderate or severe haemophilia A or B, recruited from two paediatric haematology departments in Australia, will participate in the study. The child, or the child's parent or guardian, will report bleeding episodes experienced over a 12-month period. Following a bleeding episode, the participant will be interviewed by telephone about exposures to physical activity in the case period (8 hours before the bleed and 2 control periods (an 8 hour period at the same time on the day preceding the bleed and an 8 hour period two days preceding the bleed. Conditional logistic regression will be used to estimate the risk of participating in vigorous physical activity from measures of exposure to physical activity in the case and control periods. Discussion This case-control study will provide estimates of the risk of participation in vigorous physical activity in children with haemophilia.

  16. Report on some methods of determining the state of convergence of Monte Carlo risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orford, J.L.; Hufton, D.; Johnson, K.

    1991-05-01

    The Department of the Environment is developing a methodology for assessing potential sites for the disposal of low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. Computer models are used to simulate the groundwater transport of radioactive materials from a disposal facility back to man. Monte Carlo methods are being employed to conduct a probabilistic risk assessment (pra) of potential sites. The models calculate time histories of annual radiation dose to the critical group population. The annual radiation dose to the critical group in turn specifies the annual individual risk. The distribution of dose is generally highly skewed and many simulation runs are required to predict the level of confidence in the risk estimate i.e. to determine whether the risk estimate is converged. This report describes some statistical methods for determining the state of convergence of the risk estimate. The methods described include the Shapiro-Wilk test, calculation of skewness and kurtosis and normal probability plots. A method for forecasting the number of samples needed before the risk estimate is converged is presented. Three case studies were conducted to examine the performance of some of these techniques. (author)

  17. The impact on radiation risk estimates of effect modifiers and confounders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharp, G.B.; Cologne, J.B.; Pierce, D.A.; Tokuoka, S.

    2003-01-01

    We have conducted studies of the joint effects of radiation with other risk factors for liver, lung, and breast cancer in the cohort of Japanese survivors of the 1945 atomic bombings. Based on follow-up of 45,113 subjects from 1958 through 1994, of whom 592 developed lung cancer, we found the effects of smoking and radiation to be significantly non-multiplicative and consistent with additivity. Adjustment for smoking reduced the female:male ratio of radiation risk estimates for lung cancer in this cohort from 5.8 to 1.6, a ratio more similar to that for all solid cancers. We conducted cross sectional and case control studies within the A-bomb survivor cohort to assess the joint effects of radiation with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and C virus (HCV) infections on the etiology of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our study of 268 pathologist-confirmed cirrhosis cases and 843 subjects without cirrhosis, found no relationship between A-bomb radiation and cirrhosis after adjustment for viral hepatitis. In terms of HCC, our study of 238 pathologist-confirmed cases and 894 controls showed super-multiplicative interaction between radiation and HCV infections. Our results suggest that while chronic radiation exposure acts as a complete carcinogen for HCC, acute irradiation may act in concert with an agent such as HCV that is associated with liver cell proliferation. Studies in progress of the joint effects of radiation with insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) and IGF Binding Protein 3 (IGFBP-3), and total estradiol on the etiology of breast cancer, a particularly radiogenic tumor, will also be discussed

  18. Estimating risk at a Superfund site contaminated with radiological and chemical wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Temeshy, A.; Liedle, J.M.; Sims, L.M.; Efird, C.R.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the method and results for estimating carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic effects at a Superfund site that is radiologically and chemically contaminated. Risk to receptors from disposal of waste in soil and resulting contamination of groundwater, air, surface water, and sediment is quantified. Specific risk assessment components which are addressed are the exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and the resulting risk characterization. In the exposure assessment, potential exposure pathways are identified using waste disposal inventory information for soil and modeled information for other media. Models are used to calculate future radionuclide concentrations in groundwater, soil, surface water and air. Chemical exposure concentrations are quantified using site characterization data. Models are used to determine concentrations of chemicals in surface water and in air. Toxicity parameters used to quantify the dose-response relationship associated with the carcinogenic contaminants are slope factors and with noncarcinogenic contaminants are reference doses. In the risk characterization step, results from the exposure assessment and toxicity assessment are summarized and integrated into quantitative risk estimates for carcinogens and hazard induces for noncarcinogens. Calculated risks for carcinogenic contaminants are compared with EPA's target risk range. At WAG 6, the risk from radionuclides and chemicals for an on-WAG homesteader exceeds EPA's target risk range. Hazard indices are compared to unity for noncarcinogenic contaminants. At WAG 6, the total pathway hazard index for the on-WAG homesteader exceeds unity

  19. Estimating the Health Risk Associated with the Use of Ecological Sanitation Toilets in Malawi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Save Kumwenda

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Use of Ecological Sanitation (EcoSan sludge is becoming popular due to increasing price of organic fertilizers in Malawi; however, there is little evidence on the associated risks. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA was done to determine health risks associated with use of EcoSan. Pathogens considered included Escherichia coli (E. coli, Salmonella, and soil transmitted helminths (STHs. Exponential and Beta Poisson models were used to estimate the risk from helminthic and bacterial pathogens, respectively. Main exposure pathways were through poor storage of sludge, contamination of foods during drying, walking barefoot on the ground contaminated with sludge, pit emptying without protection, and application of sludge in the fields. Estimated annual risk for Ascaris lumbricoides, Taenia, and hookworms was approximately over 5.6 × 10−1 for both Fossa Alternas (FAs and Urine Diverting Dry Toilet (UDDTs. Risk from E. coli and Salmonella was 8.9 × 10−2 and above. The risks were higher than WHO acceptable risk for use of faecal sludge in crops of 10−4 infections per year. Promoters and users of EcoSan latrines need to consider advocating for strict guidelines to reduce the risk.

  20. Obesity phenotype and coronary heart disease risk as estimated by the Framingham risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Yong Soon; Kim, Jun-Su

    2012-03-01

    There are conflicting data as to whether general or abdominal obesity is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk. This cross-sectional study involved 4,573 subjects aged 30 to 74 yr who participated in the Fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted in 2008. Obesity phenotype was classified by means of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and participants were categorized into 4 groups. Individuals' 10-yr risk of coronary heart diseases (CHD) was determined from the Framingham risk score. Subjects with obese WC had a higher proportion of high risk for CHD compared to the normal WC group, irrespective of BMI level. Relative to subjects with normal BMI/normal WC, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of normal BMI/obese WC group (OR 2.93 [1.70, 5.04] and OR 3.10 [1.49, 6.46]) for CHD risk in male were higher than obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.91 [1.40, 2.61] and OR 1.70 [1.16, 2.47]), whereas the adjusted ORs of obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.94 [1.24, 3.04] and OR 3.92 [1.75, 8.78]) were higher than the others in female. Subjects with obese BMI/normal WC were not significantly associated with 10-yr CHD risk in men (P = 0.449 and P = 0.067) and women (P = 0.702 and P = 0.658). WC is associated with increased CHD risk regardless of the level of BMI. Men with normal BMI and obese WC tend to be associated with CHD risk than those with obese BMI and obese WC.

  1. Some statistical considerations related to the estimation of cancer risk following exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Land, C.E.; Pierce, D.A.

    1983-01-01

    Statistical theory and methodology provide the logical structure for scientific inference about the cancer risk associated with exposure to ionizing radiation. Although much is known about radiation carcinogenesis, the risk associated with low-level exposures is difficult to assess because it is too small to measure directly. Estimation must therefore depend upon mathematical models which relate observed risks at high exposure levels to risks at lower exposure levels. Extrapolated risk estimates obtained using such models are heavily dependent upon assumptions about the shape of the dose-response relationship, the temporal distribution of risk following exposure, and variation of risk according to variables such as age at exposure, sex, and underlying population cancer rates. Expanded statistical models, which make explicit certain assumed relationships between different data sets, can be used to strengthen inferences by incorporating relevant information from diverse sources. They also allow the uncertainties inherent in information from related data sets to be expressed in estimates which partially depend upon that information. To the extent that informed opinion is based upon a valid assessment of scientific data, the larger context of decision theory, which includes statistical theory, provides a logical framework for the incorporation into public policy decisions of the informational content of expert opinion

  2. Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashizume, Tadashi; Maruyama, Takashi; Noda, Yutaka; Iwai, Kazuo; Fukuhisa, Kenjiro

    1981-01-01

    The genetically significant dose (GSD), per Caput mean bone marrow dose (CMD), leukemia significant dose (LSD) and malignancy significant dose (MSD) from medical diagnostic X-ray examinations in Japan were estimated based on a 1979 nationwide survey of randomly sampled hospitals and clinics. The population risk estimates were carried out using the resultant values of GSD, LSD and MSD. In the risk estimates, the significant factors, namely, the relative child expectancy, the leukemia significant factor and the malignancy significant factor, for patients were assumed to be same as those of general population. The risk factors used were 185 x 10 -6 rad -1 for genetic risk of all generations, 20 x 10 -6 rad -1 for fatal leukemia and 165 x 10 -6 rad -1 for fatal malignant diseases, respectively. The resultant annual population doses per person were 15 mrad (0.15 mGy) for GSD, 107 mrad (1.07 mGy) for CMD, 86 mrad (0.86 mGy) for LSD and 43 mrad (0.43 mGy) for MSD, respectively. The present data other than the MSD were compared with the data in 1960, 1969 and 1974. For example, the GSD of 1979 was approximately same as that of 1974, although the annual number of examinations in 1979 increased by about 30 percent as compared with those of 1974. The population risks from X-ray diagnosis were estimated to be 260 persons per year for genetic risk of all generations, 192 person per year for fatal leukemic risk and 825 person per year for malignant risk, respectively, for the whole population in Japan, assuming that the X-ray diagnosis in 1979 will be performed continuously in the future. The average risks per one exposure for X-ray radiography were estimated using the weighted average of the significant factor and the organ or tissue dose with the number of radiographic exposures by age and by type of examination. The average risks per radiographic exposure were 176 x 10 -9 for genetic risk, 285 x 10 -9 for leukemic risk and 1.75 x 10 -6 for malignant risk respectively. (author)

  3. A novel tool for user-friendly estimation of natural, diagnostic and professional radiation risk: Radio-Risk software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carpeggiani, Clara; Paterni, Marco; Caramella, Davide; Vano, Eliseo; Semelka, Richard C.; Picano, Eugenio

    2012-01-01

    Background: Awareness of radiological risk is low among doctors and patients. An educational/decision tool that considers each patient’ s cumulative lifetime radiation exposure would facilitate provider–patient communication. Aim: The purpose of this work was to develop user-friendly software for simple estimation and communication of radiological risk to patients and doctors as a part of the SUIT-Heart (Stop Useless Imaging Testing in Heart disease) Project of the Tuscany Region. Methods: We developed a novel software program (PC-platform, Windows OS fully downloadable at (http://suit-heart.ifc.cnr.it)) considering reference dose estimates from American Heart Association Radiological Imaging 2009 guidelines and UK Royal College of Radiology 2007 guidelines. Cancer age and gender-weighted risk were derived from Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation VII Committee, 2006. Results: With simple input functions (demographics, age, gender) the user selects from a predetermined menu variables relating to natural (e.g., airplane flights and geo-tracked background exposure), professional (e.g., cath lab workers) and medical (e.g., CT, cardiac scintigraphy, coronary stenting) sources. The program provides a simple numeric (cumulative effective dose in milliSievert, mSv, and equivalent number of chest X-rays) and graphic (cumulative temporal trends of exposure, cancer cases out of 100 exposed persons) display. Conclusions: A simple software program allows straightforward estimation of cumulative dose (in multiples of chest X-rays) and risk (in extra % lifetime cancer risk), with simple numbers quantifying lifetime extra cancer risk. Pictorial display of radiation risk may be valuable for increasing radiological awareness in cardiologists.

  4. A novel tool for user-friendly estimation of natural, diagnostic and professional radiation risk: Radio-Risk software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carpeggiani, Clara; Paterni, Marco [CNR, Institute of Clinical Physiology (Italy); Caramella, Davide [Radiology Department, Pisa University, Pisa (Italy); Vano, Eliseo [San Carlos Hospital, Radiology Department, Complutense University, Madrid (Spain); Semelka, Richard C. [University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Picano, Eugenio, E-mail: picano@ifc.cnr.it [CNR, Institute of Clinical Physiology (Italy)

    2012-11-15

    Background: Awareness of radiological risk is low among doctors and patients. An educational/decision tool that considers each patient' s cumulative lifetime radiation exposure would facilitate provider-patient communication. Aim: The purpose of this work was to develop user-friendly software for simple estimation and communication of radiological risk to patients and doctors as a part of the SUIT-Heart (Stop Useless Imaging Testing in Heart disease) Project of the Tuscany Region. Methods: We developed a novel software program (PC-platform, Windows OS fully downloadable at (http://suit-heart.ifc.cnr.it)) considering reference dose estimates from American Heart Association Radiological Imaging 2009 guidelines and UK Royal College of Radiology 2007 guidelines. Cancer age and gender-weighted risk were derived from Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation VII Committee, 2006. Results: With simple input functions (demographics, age, gender) the user selects from a predetermined menu variables relating to natural (e.g., airplane flights and geo-tracked background exposure), professional (e.g., cath lab workers) and medical (e.g., CT, cardiac scintigraphy, coronary stenting) sources. The program provides a simple numeric (cumulative effective dose in milliSievert, mSv, and equivalent number of chest X-rays) and graphic (cumulative temporal trends of exposure, cancer cases out of 100 exposed persons) display. Conclusions: A simple software program allows straightforward estimation of cumulative dose (in multiples of chest X-rays) and risk (in extra % lifetime cancer risk), with simple numbers quantifying lifetime extra cancer risk. Pictorial display of radiation risk may be valuable for increasing radiological awareness in cardiologists.

  5. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S. [School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2015-09-25

    The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  6. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-01

    The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  7. Estimating risks of radiotherapy complications as part of informed consent: the high degree of variability between radiation oncologists may be related to experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakespeare, Thomas Philip; Dwyer, Mary; Mukherjee, Rahul; Yeghiaian-Alvandi, Roland; Gebski, Val

    2002-01-01

    Purpose: Estimating the risks of radiotherapy (RT) toxicity is important for informed consent; however, the consistency in estimates has not been studied. This study aimed to explore the variability and factors affecting risk estimates (REs). Methods and Materials: A survey was mailed to Australian radiation oncologists, who were asked to estimate risks of RT complications given 49 clinical scenarios. The REs were assessed for association with oncologist experience, subspecialization, and private practice. Results: The REs were extremely variable, with a 50-fold median variability. The least variability (sevenfold) was for estimates of late, small intestinal perforation/obstruction after a one-third volume received 50 Gy with concurrent 5-fluorouracil (RE range 5-35%). The variation between the smallest and largest REs in 17 scenarios was ≥100-fold. The years of experience was significantly associated with REs of soft/connective-tissue toxicity (p=0.01) but inversely associated with estimates of neurologic/central nervous system toxicity (p=0.08). Ninety-six percent of respondents believed REs were important to RT practice; only 24% rated evidence to support their estimates as good. Sixty-seven percent believed national/international groups should pursue the issue further. Conclusion: Enormous variability exists in REs for normal tissue complications due to RT that is influenced by the years of experience. Risk estimation is perceived as an important issue without a good evidence base. Additional studies are strongly recommended

  8. Consolidating Risk Estimates for Radiation-Induced Complications in Individual Patient: Late Rectal Toxicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prior, Phillip; Devisetty, Kiran; Tarima, Sergey S.; Lawton, Colleen A.F.; Semenenko, Vladimir A.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To test the feasibility of a new approach to synthesize published normal tissue complication data using late rectal toxicity in prostate cancer as an example. Methods and Materials: A data survey was performed to identify the published reports on the dose–response relationships for late rectal toxicity. The risk estimates for Grade 1 or greater, Grade 2 or greater, and Grade 3 or greater toxicity were obtained for a test cohort of patients treated at our institution. The influence of the potential factors that might have affected the reported toxicity levels was investigated. The studies that did not conform to the general data trends were excluded, and single, combined risk estimates were derived for each patient and toxicity level. Results: A total of 21 studies of nonoverlapping patient populations were identified. Three studies provided dose–response models for more than one level of toxicity. Of these 21 studies, 6, 14, and 5 were used to derive the initial risk estimates for Grade 1, 2, and 3 or greater toxicity, respectively. A comparison of risk estimates between the studies reporting rectal bleeding and rectal toxicity (bleeding plus other symptoms) or between studies with follow-up <36 months and ≥36 months did not reveal significant differences (p ≥ .29 for all comparisons). After excluding three reports that did not conform to the general data trends, the combined risk estimates were derived from 5 reports (647 patients), 11 reports (3,369 patients), and 5 reports (1,330 patients) for Grade 1, 2, and 3 or greater toxicity, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed approach is feasible and allows for more systematic use of published dose–response data to estimate the complication risks for the individual patient.

  9. Consolidating Risk Estimates for Radiation-Induced Complications in Individual Patient: Late Rectal Toxicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prior, Phillip; Devisetty, Kiran [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States); Tarima, Sergey S. [Division of Biostatistics, Institute for Health and Society, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States); Lawton, Colleen A.F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States); Semenenko, Vladimir A., E-mail: vsemenenko@mcw.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Purpose: To test the feasibility of a new approach to synthesize published normal tissue complication data using late rectal toxicity in prostate cancer as an example. Methods and Materials: A data survey was performed to identify the published reports on the dose-response relationships for late rectal toxicity. The risk estimates for Grade 1 or greater, Grade 2 or greater, and Grade 3 or greater toxicity were obtained for a test cohort of patients treated at our institution. The influence of the potential factors that might have affected the reported toxicity levels was investigated. The studies that did not conform to the general data trends were excluded, and single, combined risk estimates were derived for each patient and toxicity level. Results: A total of 21 studies of nonoverlapping patient populations were identified. Three studies provided dose-response models for more than one level of toxicity. Of these 21 studies, 6, 14, and 5 were used to derive the initial risk estimates for Grade 1, 2, and 3 or greater toxicity, respectively. A comparison of risk estimates between the studies reporting rectal bleeding and rectal toxicity (bleeding plus other symptoms) or between studies with follow-up <36 months and {>=}36 months did not reveal significant differences (p {>=} .29 for all comparisons). After excluding three reports that did not conform to the general data trends, the combined risk estimates were derived from 5 reports (647 patients), 11 reports (3,369 patients), and 5 reports (1,330 patients) for Grade 1, 2, and 3 or greater toxicity, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed approach is feasible and allows for more systematic use of published dose-response data to estimate the complication risks for the individual patient.

  10. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jia; Hong, Bei; Jiang, Xuepeng; Chen, Qinghua

    2017-05-01

    With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  11. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui Jia

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  12. Economic estimation of risk and compensation of damage from accidents in power engineering objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesnykh, V.V.

    1996-01-01

    Place and basic peculiarities of the task relative to compensation of damage due to accidents in the problem on technical-economical studies of the power engineering objects, including NPPs, are analyzed. Certain approaches in the task of the risk economical estimates and basic provisions of the economical damage compensation system are presented. Description of imitated and analytical approach in the task of estimating financial state is given and certain study results are presented. 11 refs., 8 figs

  13. Estimation of enhanced cancer risk with 18FDG PET/CT investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaushik, Aruna; Mishra, Anil K.; Sharma, Rajnish; Mondal, Anupam; Dwarakanath, B.S.

    2014-01-01

    18 F-Fluorodeoxyglucose ( 18 FDG) Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography (PET/CT) investigation involves internal administration of 18 FDG and use of CT X-rays for the purpose of obtaining functional and anatomical information of a patient. However, the radiation exposure from undergoing PET/CT investigation may enhance the risk of cancer incidence as per the Linear-No-Threshold (LNT) model. The objective of the present study was to quantify the risk of cancer incidence associated with radiation exposure from 18 FDG PET/CT investigations. The organ doses from internally administered 18 FDG were estimated using OLINDA/EXM Code by performing dynamic PET scans in different regions of the body in a total of forty-nine patients. Organ doses from the CT component were calculated using the software CT-Expo. The associated cancer risk was calculated in terms of life time risk of cancer incidence resulting from a specified dose of ionizing radiation and was expressed in terms of Lifetime Attributable Risk (LAR). LAR values and the organ doses estimated for males and females were used to estimate the lifetime risk of cancer incidence from whole body 18 FDG PET/CT scan. Since from 18 FDG whole body PET/CT investigations, various tissues of the body receive substantially different doses, the site specific risk of cancer incidence was estimated and summed to obtain the total risk. This was compared with the baseline lifetime risk of cancer incidence in Indian population. LAR of cancer incidence was observed to be relatively higher in females as compared to males. The risk estimates ranged from 0.36% to 0.49% for a 20 year old male and 0.58% to 0.79% for a 20 year old female and were observed to be higher in younger ages and decreased with age. 18 FDG whole body PET/CT investigation was observed to be associated with non-negligible radiation risk as compared to the risks associated with other diagnostic modalities. (author)

  14. Estimates of radiation doses and cancer risk from food intake in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Eun Kyeong; Lee, Won Jin; Ha, Wi Ho; Seo, Song Won; Jin, Young Woo; Jeong, Kyu Hwan; Yoon, Hae Jung; Kim, Hyoung Soo; Hwang, Myung Sil; Choi, Hoon

    2016-01-01

    After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, a widespread public concern for radiation exposure through the contamination of domestic or imported food has continued worldwide. Because the internal exposure from contaminated food is an important consideration for human health effect, some studies for estimating radiation doses and cancer risk from the Fukushima nuclear accident have been conducted in several countries (1). The aims of the study is to estimate internal radiation dose and lifetime risks of cancer from food ingestion in Korean population. Our findings suggest no discernible increase n radiation doses or excess fatal cancer risk from food ingestion at this stage in Korea, and provide scientific evidence of the risk communication with general public associated with low-dose radiation exposure.

  15. RiD: A New Approach to Estimate the Insolvency Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Aurélio dos Santos Sanfins

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Given the recent international crises and the increasing number of defaults, several researchers have attempted to develop metrics that calculate the probability of insolvency with higher accuracy. The approaches commonly used, however, do not consider the credit risk nor the severity of the distance between receivables and obligations among different periods. In this paper we mathematically present an approach that allow us to estimate the insolvency risk by considering not only future receivables and obligations, but the severity of the distance between them and the quality of the respective receivables. Using Monte Carlo simulations and hypothetical examples, we show that our metric is able to estimate the insolvency risk with high accuracy. Moreover, our results suggest that in the absence of a smooth distribution between receivables and obligations, there is a non-null insolvency risk even when the present value of receivables is larger than the present value of the obligations.

  16. Estimates of radiation doses and cancer risk from food intake in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Eun Kyeong; Lee, Won Jin [Korea University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ha, Wi Ho; Seo, Song Won; Jin, Young Woo [Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jeong, Kyu Hwan [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Hae Jung; Kim, Hyoung Soo; Hwang, Myung Sil [Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, Cheongju (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Hoon [Wonkwang University, Iksan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-15

    After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, a widespread public concern for radiation exposure through the contamination of domestic or imported food has continued worldwide. Because the internal exposure from contaminated food is an important consideration for human health effect, some studies for estimating radiation doses and cancer risk from the Fukushima nuclear accident have been conducted in several countries (1). The aims of the study is to estimate internal radiation dose and lifetime risks of cancer from food ingestion in Korean population. Our findings suggest no discernible increase n radiation doses or excess fatal cancer risk from food ingestion at this stage in Korea, and provide scientific evidence of the risk communication with general public associated with low-dose radiation exposure.

  17. Estimation of stochastic effects risk in children from areas affected by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jova S, L.; Garcia L, O.; Valdes R, M.

    1996-01-01

    Radiation risk estimation of stochastic effect was evaluated in a group of children assisted in the Cuba Republic as part of the program for medical attention with children from areas affected by the Chernobyl accident . Doses, received from different sources, were estimated for risk evaluation. The study shows total detrimental effects between 0,02 - 0,01% for different groups; values lower than expected for developed country (17-20%). Fatal thyroid cancer increased up to 0,07% in one of the studied groups. (authors). 8 refs., 4 tabs

  18. Two-stage approach for risk estimation of fetal trisomy 21 and other aneuploidies using computational intelligence systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neocleous, A C; Syngelaki, A; Nicolaides, K H; Schizas, C N

    2018-04-01

    To estimate the risk of fetal trisomy 21 (T21) and other chromosomal abnormalities (OCA) at 11-13 weeks' gestation using computational intelligence classification methods. As a first step, a training dataset consisting of 72 054 euploid pregnancies, 295 cases of T21 and 305 cases of OCA was used to train an artificial neural network. Then, a two-stage approach was used for stratification of risk and diagnosis of cases of aneuploidy in the blind set. In Stage 1, using four markers, pregnancies in the blind set were classified into no risk and risk. No-risk pregnancies were not examined further, whereas the risk pregnancies were forwarded to Stage 2 for further examination. In Stage 2, using seven markers, pregnancies were classified into three types of risk, namely no risk, moderate risk and high risk. Of 36 328 unknown to the system pregnancies (blind set), 17 512 euploid, two T21 and 18 OCA were classified as no risk in Stage 1. The remaining 18 796 cases were forwarded to Stage 2, of which 7895 euploid, two T21 and two OCA cases were classified as no risk, 10 464 euploid, 83 T21 and 61 OCA as moderate risk and 187 euploid, 50 T21 and 52 OCA as high risk. The sensitivity and the specificity for T21 in Stage 2 were 97.1% and 99.5%, respectively, and the false-positive rate from Stage 1 to Stage 2 was reduced from 51.4% to ∼1%, assuming that the cell-free DNA test could identify all euploid and aneuploid cases. We propose a method for early diagnosis of chromosomal abnormalities that ensures that most T21 cases are classified as high risk at any stage. At the same time, the number of euploid cases subjected to invasive or cell-free DNA examinations was minimized through a routine procedure offered in two stages. Our method is minimally invasive and of relatively low cost, highly effective at T21 identification and it performs better than do other existing statistical methods. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright

  19. Estimating and controlling workplace risk: an approach for occupational hygiene and safety professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toffel, Michael W; Birkner, Lawrence R

    2002-07-01

    The protection of people and physical assets is the objective of health and safety professionals and is accomplished through the paradigm of anticipation, recognition, evaluation, and control of risks in the occupational environment. Risk assessment concepts are not only used by health and safety professionals, but also by business and financial planners. Since meeting health and safety objectives requires financial resources provided by business and governmental managers, the hypothesis addressed here is that health and safety risk decisions should be made with probabilistic processes used in financial decision-making and which are familiar and recognizable to business and government planners and managers. This article develops the processes and demonstrates the use of incident probabilities, historic outcome information, and incremental impact analysis to estimate risk of multiple alternatives in the chemical process industry. It also analyzes how the ethical aspects of decision-making can be addressed in formulating health and safety risk management plans. It is concluded that certain, easily understood, and applied probabilistic risk assessment methods used by business and government to assess financial and outcome risk have applicability to improving workplace health and safety in three ways: 1) by linking the business and health and safety risk assessment processes to securing resources, 2) by providing an additional set of tools for health and safety risk assessment, and 3) by requiring the risk assessor to consider multiple risk management alternatives.

  20. Development and prospective validation of a model estimating risk of readmission in cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Carl R; Hefner, Jennifer; McAlearney, Ann S; Graham, Lisa; Johnson, Kristen; Moffatt-Bruce, Susan; Huerta, Timothy; Pawlik, Timothy M; White, Susan

    2018-02-26

    Hospital readmissions among cancer patients are common. While several models estimating readmission risk exist, models specific for cancer patients are lacking. A logistic regression model estimating risk of unplanned 30-day readmission was developed using inpatient admission data from a 2-year period (n = 18 782) at a tertiary cancer hospital. Readmission risk estimates derived from the model were then calculated prospectively over a 10-month period (n = 8616 admissions) and compared with actual incidence of readmission. There were 2478 (13.2%) unplanned readmissions. Model factors associated with readmission included: emergency department visit within 30 days, >1 admission within 60 days, non-surgical admission, solid malignancy, gastrointestinal cancer, emergency admission, length of stay >5 days, abnormal sodium, hemoglobin, or white blood cell count. The c-statistic for the model was 0.70. During the 10-month prospective evaluation, estimates of readmission from the model were associated with higher actual readmission incidence from 20.7% for the highest risk category to 9.6% for the lowest. An unplanned readmission risk model developed specifically for cancer patients performs well when validated prospectively. The specificity of the model for cancer patients, EMR incorporation, and prospective validation justify use of the model in future studies designed to reduce and prevent readmissions. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. The use of importance sampling in a trial assessment to obtain converged estimates of radiological risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, K.; Lucas, R.

    1986-12-01

    In developing a methodology for assessing potential sites for the disposal of radioactive wastes, the Department of the Environment has conducted a series of trial assessment exercises. In order to produce converged estimates of radiological risk using the SYVAC A/C simulation system an efficient sampling procedure is required. Previous work has demonstrated that importance sampling can substantially increase sampling efficiency. This study used importance sampling to produce converged estimates of risk for the first DoE trial assessment. Four major nuclide chains were analysed. In each case importance sampling produced converged risk estimates with between 10 and 170 times fewer runs of the SYVAC A/C model. This increase in sampling efficiency can reduce the total elapsed time required to obtain a converged estimate of risk from one nuclide chain by a factor of 20. The results of this study suggests that the use of importance sampling could reduce the elapsed time required to perform a risk assessment of a potential site by a factor of ten. (author)

  2. [Estimation of relation between homocysteine concentration and selected lipid parameters and adhesion molecules concentration in children with atherosclerosis risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierakowska-Fijałek, Anna; Baj, Zbigniew; Kaczmarek, Piotr; Stepień, Mariusz; Rysz, Jacek

    2008-10-01

    Atherosclerosis begins in childhood. At present among numerous risk factors of atherosclerosis the role of hiperhomocysteinemia in development of cardiovascular heart disease is taken under consideration. Atherogenic effect of homocystein is related to its cytotoxin action, conducting to endothelial dysfunction and damage. It is correlated with increase of the lipid levels in the blood serum and change of expression of the soluble forms of adhesion molecules. The aim of this study was to estimate relations between the homocystein serum concentration, expression of the selected adhesion molecules and the lipid levels in the blood serum in children with atherosclerosis risk factors. The group consisted of 670 children, 76 of them had atherosclerosis risk factors. In further examination 48 children have taken a part, whose parents were agreed for theirs participation in the program. The comparative group composed of 25 children without the risk factors. We determined total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), LDL cholesterol fraction (LDL-C), HDL cholesterol fraction (HDL-C), serum homocysteine concentration (Hcy), the expression of the soluble forms of adhesion molecules (sCAM): sP-selectin and sVCAM-1 (vascular cell adhesion molecule-1). Obesity, hypertension and lipid disorders in the shape of higher concentration of TC, LDL-C, TG and lower HDL-C were the most frequent risk factors in the investigated children. No significant differences in serum homocysteine concentration were observed between the investigated groups. However, its concentration was significantly higher in children with two atherosclerosis risk factors. No significant differences in expression of s-VCAM-1 were observed in the investigated groups, concentration of sP-selectin was significantly higher in children with atherosclerosis risk factors (phomocysteine and chosen adhesion molecules in children with atherosclerosis risk factors might potentially constitute the marker of early

  3. FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: aclc@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10{sup -5} by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10{sup -4} by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10{sup -5} by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

  4. FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da

    2015-01-01

    Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10 -5 by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10 -4 by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10 -5 by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

  5. Estimation of the value-at-risk parameter: Econometric analysis and the extreme value theory approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mladenović Zorica

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper different aspects of value-at-risk estimation are considered. Daily returns of CISCO, INTEL and NASDAQ stock indices are analyzed for period: September 1996 - September 2006. Methods that incorporate time varying variability and heavy tails of the empirical distributions of returns are implemented. The main finding of the paper is that standard econometric methods underestimate the value-at-risk parameter if heavy tails of the empirical distribution are not explicitly taken into account. .

  6. Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling and census data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Arrighi

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The adoption of 2007/60/EC Directive requires European countries to implement flood hazard and flood risk maps by the end of 2013. Flood risk is the product of flood hazard, vulnerability and exposure, all three to be estimated with comparable level of accuracy. The route to flood risk assessment is consequently much more than hydraulic modelling of inundation, that is hazard mapping. While hazard maps have already been implemented in many countries, quantitative damage and risk maps are still at a preliminary level. A parsimonious quasi-2-D hydraulic model is here adopted, having many advantages in terms of easy set-up. It is here evaluated as being accurate in flood depth estimation in urban areas with a high-resolution and up-to-date Digital Surface Model (DSM. The accuracy, estimated by comparison with marble-plate records of a historic flood in the city of Florence, is characterized in the downtown's most flooded area by a bias of a very few centimetres and a determination coefficient of 0.73. The average risk is found to be about 14 € m−2 yr−1, corresponding to about 8.3% of residents' income. The spatial distribution of estimated risk highlights a complex interaction between the flood pattern and the building characteristics. As a final example application, the estimated risk values have been used to compare different retrofitting measures. Proceeding through the risk estimation steps, a new micro-scale potential damage assessment method is proposed. This is based on the georeferenced census system as the optimal compromise between spatial detail and open availability of socio-economic data. The results of flood risk assessment at the census section scale resolve most of the risk spatial variability, and they can be easily aggregated to whatever upper scale is needed given that they are geographically defined as contiguous polygons. Damage is calculated through stage–damage curves, starting from census data on building type and

  7. Estimated risk of radiation-induced cancer from paediatric chest CT: two-year cohort study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niemann, Tilo [Cantonal Hospital Baden, Department of Radiology, Baden (Switzerland); University Lille Nord de France, Department of Thoracic Imaging, Hospital Calmette, Lille (France); Colas, Lucie; Santangelo, Teresa; Faivre, Jean Baptiste; Remy, Jacques; Remy-Jardin, Martine [University Lille Nord de France, Department of Thoracic Imaging, Hospital Calmette, Lille (France); Roser, Hans W.; Bremerich, Jens [University of Basel Hospital, Clinic of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Medical Physics, Basel (Switzerland)

    2015-03-01

    The increasing absolute number of paediatric CT scans raises concern about the safety and efficacy and the effects of consecutive diagnostic ionising radiation. To demonstrate a method to evaluate the lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence/mortality due to a single low-dose helical chest CT in a two-year patient cohort. A two-year cohort of 522 paediatric helical chest CT scans acquired using a dedicated low-dose protocol were analysed retrospectively. Patient-specific estimations of radiation doses were modelled using three different mathematical phantoms. Per-organ attributable cancer risk was then estimated using epidemiological models. Additional comparison was provided for naturally occurring risks. Total lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence remains low for all age and sex categories, being highest in female neonates (0.34%). Summation of all cancer sites analysed raised the relative lifetime attributable risk of organ cancer incidence up to 3.6% in female neonates and 2.1% in male neonates. Using dedicated scan protocols, total lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence and mortality for chest CT is estimated low for paediatric chest CT, being highest for female neonates. (orig.)

  8. Application of multivariate probabilistic (Bayesian) networks to substance use disorder risk stratification and cost estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Lawrence; Radano, Todd A; Jack, Timothy; Kalina, Philip; Eberhardt, John S

    2009-09-16

    This paper explores the use of machine learning and Bayesian classification models to develop broadly applicable risk stratification models to guide disease management of health plan enrollees with substance use disorder (SUD). While the high costs and morbidities associated with SUD are understood by payers, who manage it through utilization review, acute interventions, coverage and cost limitations, and disease management, the literature shows mixed results for these modalities in improving patient outcomes and controlling cost. Our objective is to evaluate the potential of data mining methods to identify novel risk factors for chronic disease and stratification of enrollee utilization, which can be used to develop new methods for targeting disease management services to maximize benefits to both enrollees and payers. For our evaluation, we used DecisionQ machine learning algorithms to build Bayesian network models of a representative sample of data licensed from Thomson-Reuters' MarketScan consisting of 185,322 enrollees with three full-year claim records. Data sets were prepared, and a stepwise learning process was used to train a series of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). The BBNs were validated using a 10 percent holdout set. The networks were highly predictive, with the risk-stratification BBNs producing area under the curve (AUC) for SUD positive of 0.948 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.944-0.951) and 0.736 (95 percent CI, 0.721-0.752), respectively, and SUD negative of 0.951 (95 percent CI, 0.947-0.954) and 0.738 (95 percent CI, 0.727-0.750), respectively. The cost estimation models produced area under the curve ranging from 0.72 (95 percent CI, 0.708-0.731) to 0.961 (95 percent CI, 0.95-0.971). We were able to successfully model a large, heterogeneous population of commercial enrollees, applying state-of-the-art machine learning technology to develop complex and accurate multivariate models that support near-real-time scoring of novel payer

  9. SU-F-T-244: Radiotherapy Risk Estimation Based On Expert Group Survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koo, J; Yoon, M [Korea University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Chung, W; Chung, M; Kim, D [Kyung Hee University Hospital at Gangdong, Gangdong-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the reliability of RPN (Risk Priority Number) decided by expert group and to provide preliminary data for adapting FMEA in Korea. Methods: 1163 Incidents reported in ROSIS for 11 years were used as a real data to be compared with, and were categorized into 146 items. The questionnaire was composed of the 146 items and respondents had to valuate ‘occurrence (O)’, ‘severity (S)’, ‘detectability (D)’ of each item on a scale from 1 to 10 according to the proposed AAPM TG-100 rating scales. 19 medical physicists from 19 different organizations in Korea had participated in the survey. Because the number of ROSIS items was not evenly spread enough to be classified into 10 grades, 1–5 scale was chosen instead of 1–10 and survey result was also fit to 5 grades to compare. Results: The average O,S,D were 1.77, 3.50, 2.13, respectively and the item which had the highest RPN(32) was ‘patient movement during treatment’ in the survey. When comparing items ranked in the top 10 of each survey(O) and ROSIS database, two items were duplicated and ‘Simulation’ and ’Treatment’ were the most frequently ranked RT process in top 10 of survey and ROSIS each. The Chronbach α of each RT process were ranged from 0.74 to 0.99 and p-value was <0.001. When comparing O*D, the average difference was 1.4. Conclusion: This work indicates the deviation between actual risk and expectation. Considering that the respondents were Korean and ROSIS is mainly composed of incidents happened in European countries and some of the top 10 items of ROSIS cannot be applied in radiotherapy procedure in Korea, the deviation could have been came from procedural difference. Moreover, if expert group was consisted of experts from various parts, expectation might have been more accurate. Therefore, further research on radiotherapy risk estimation is needed.

  10. SU-F-T-244: Radiotherapy Risk Estimation Based On Expert Group Survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koo, J; Yoon, M; Chung, W; Chung, M; Kim, D

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the reliability of RPN (Risk Priority Number) decided by expert group and to provide preliminary data for adapting FMEA in Korea. Methods: 1163 Incidents reported in ROSIS for 11 years were used as a real data to be compared with, and were categorized into 146 items. The questionnaire was composed of the 146 items and respondents had to valuate ‘occurrence (O)’, ‘severity (S)’, ‘detectability (D)’ of each item on a scale from 1 to 10 according to the proposed AAPM TG-100 rating scales. 19 medical physicists from 19 different organizations in Korea had participated in the survey. Because the number of ROSIS items was not evenly spread enough to be classified into 10 grades, 1–5 scale was chosen instead of 1–10 and survey result was also fit to 5 grades to compare. Results: The average O,S,D were 1.77, 3.50, 2.13, respectively and the item which had the highest RPN(32) was ‘patient movement during treatment’ in the survey. When comparing items ranked in the top 10 of each survey(O) and ROSIS database, two items were duplicated and ‘Simulation’ and ’Treatment’ were the most frequently ranked RT process in top 10 of survey and ROSIS each. The Chronbach α of each RT process were ranged from 0.74 to 0.99 and p-value was <0.001. When comparing O*D, the average difference was 1.4. Conclusion: This work indicates the deviation between actual risk and expectation. Considering that the respondents were Korean and ROSIS is mainly composed of incidents happened in European countries and some of the top 10 items of ROSIS cannot be applied in radiotherapy procedure in Korea, the deviation could have been came from procedural difference. Moreover, if expert group was consisted of experts from various parts, expectation might have been more accurate. Therefore, further research on radiotherapy risk estimation is needed.

  11. Bayesian estimation of covariance matrices: Application to market risk management at EDF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jandrzejewski-Bouriga, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this thesis, we develop new methods of regularized covariance matrix estimation, under the Bayesian setting. The regularization methodology employed is first related to shrinkage. We investigate a new Bayesian modeling of covariance matrix, based on hierarchical inverse-Wishart distribution, and then derive different estimators under standard loss functions. Comparisons between shrunk and empirical estimators are performed in terms of frequentist performance under different losses. It allows us to highlight the critical importance of the definition of cost function and show the persistent effect of the shrinkage-type prior on inference. In a second time, we consider the problem of covariance matrix estimation in Gaussian graphical models. If the issue is well treated for the decomposable case, it is not the case if you also consider non-decomposable graphs. We then describe a Bayesian and operational methodology to carry out the estimation of covariance matrix of Gaussian graphical models, decomposable or not. This procedure is based on a new and objective method of graphical-model selection, combined with a constrained and regularized estimation of the covariance matrix of the model chosen. The procedures studied effectively manage missing data. These estimation techniques were applied to calculate the covariance matrices involved in the market risk management for portfolios of EDF (Electricity of France), in particular for problems of calculating Value-at-Risk or in Asset Liability Management. (author)

  12. A practical approach to risk-benefit estimation in pediatric drug research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koren, Gideon

    2015-02-01

    One of the most difficult challenges in pediatric drug research is in exposing children to risk, often without a balanced chance of benefits. While the concept of risk is similar in adult research, the adult patient can decide for himself/herself on an acceptable level of risk, whereas children have to accept the decisions of their guardians. This paper attempts to put the complexities of estimating risk in pediatric drug research into their practical perspective, and to familiarize the reader with the way such processes are conducted in different parts of the world. Although there are regional differences, all authorities typically quantify risks of pediatric research in general, and drug research in particular, in three levels: those experienced in day-to-day life; risks slightly above this 'baseline' risk; and risks substantially above 'baseline risk'. Proportionally, the diligence of the ethics process depends on these levels, as well as on the potential benefits (or lack of) to the child involved in the research. Importantly, risk is context dependent, and a particular intervention may be effective or safe in one setting but not in another, based on local experience, staffing levels, and similar variabilities.

  13. Identifying patient preferences for communicating risk estimates: A descriptive pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O'Connor Annette M

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients increasingly seek more active involvement in health care decisions, but little is known about how to communicate complex risk information to patients. The objective of this study was to elicit patient preferences for the presentation and framing of complex risk information. Method To accomplish this, eight focus group discussions and 15 one-on-one interviews were conducted, where women were presented with risk data in a variety of different graphical formats, metrics, and time horizons. Risk data were based on a hypothetical woman's risk for coronary heart disease, hip fracture, and breast cancer, with and without hormone replacement therapy. Participants' preferences were assessed using likert scales, ranking, and abstractions of focus group discussions. Results Forty peri- and postmenopausal women were recruited through hospital fliers (n = 25 and a community health fair (n = 15. Mean age was 51 years, 50% were non-Caucasian, and all had completed high school. Bar graphs were preferred by 83% of participants over line graphs, thermometer graphs, 100 representative faces, and survival curves. Lifetime risk estimates were preferred over 10 or 20-year horizons, and absolute risks were preferred over relative risks and number needed to treat. Conclusion Although there are many different formats for presenting and framing risk information, simple bar charts depicting absolute lifetime risk were rated and ranked highest overall for patient preferences for format.

  14. Estimating the value of a Country's built assets: investment-based exposure modelling for global risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Pomonis, Antonios; Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Gaspari, Maria; Lu, Xijie; Aubrecht, Christoph; Ungar, Joachim

    2017-04-01

    In order to quantify disaster risk, there is a demand and need for determining consistent and reliable economic value of built assets at national or sub national level exposed to natural hazards. The value of the built stock in the context of a city or a country is critical for risk modelling applications as it allows for the upper bound in potential losses to be established. Under the World Bank probabilistic disaster risk assessment - Country Disaster Risk Profiles (CDRP) Program and rapid post-disaster loss analyses in CATDAT, key methodologies have been developed that quantify the asset exposure of a country. In this study, we assess the complementary methods determining value of building stock through capital investment data vs aggregated ground up values based on built area and unit cost of construction analyses. Different approaches to modelling exposure around the world, have resulted in estimated values of built assets of some countries differing by order(s) of magnitude. Using the aforementioned methodology of comparing investment data based capital stock and bottom-up unit cost of construction values per square meter of assets; a suitable range of capital stock estimates for built assets have been created. A blind test format was undertaken to compare the two types of approaches from top-down (investment) and bottom-up (construction cost per unit), In many cases, census data, demographic, engineering and construction cost data are key for bottom-up calculations from previous years. Similarly for the top-down investment approach, distributed GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) data is also required. Over the past few years, numerous studies have been undertaken through the World Bank Caribbean and Central America disaster risk assessment program adopting this methodology initially developed by Gunasekera et al. (2015). The range of values of the building stock is tested for around 15 countries. In addition, three types of costs - Reconstruction cost

  15. Comparing cancer screening estimates: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, Ann Goding; Liu, Benmei; Siegel, Rebecca L; Jemal, Ahmedin; Fedewa, Stacey A

    2018-01-01

    Cancer screening prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), designed to provide state-level estimates, and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), designed to provide national estimates, are used to measure progress in cancer control. A detailed description of the extent to which recent cancer screening estimates vary by key demographic characteristics has not been previously described. We examined national prevalence estimates for recommended breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening using data from the 2012 and 2014 BRFSS and the 2010 and 2013 NHIS. Treating the NHIS estimates as the reference, direct differences (DD) were calculated by subtracting NHIS estimates from BRFSS estimates. Relative differences were computed by dividing the DD by the NHIS estimates. Two-sample t-tests (2-tails), were performed to test for statistically significant differences. BRFSS screening estimates were higher than those from NHIS for breast (78.4% versus 72.5%; DD=5.9%, pNHIS, each survey has a unique and important role in providing information to track cancer screening utilization among various populations. Awareness of these differences and their potential causes is important when comparing the surveys and determining the best application for each data source. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Paula Colette Kuypers

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased.A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases/sampling (controls. The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161 and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301 were included in the study.Main findings were that 1 alcohol in general (all the concentrations together caused an elevated crash risk; 2 cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3 when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives.The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

  17. Cancer risk estimation for mixtures of coal tars and benzo(a)pyrene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaylor, D.W.; Culp, S.J.; Goldstein, L.S.; Beland, F.A.

    2000-01-01

    Two-year chronic bioassays were conducted by using B6C3F1 female mice fed several concentrations of two different mixtures of coal tars from manufactured gas waste sites or benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The purpose of the study was to obtain estimates of cancer potency of coal tar mixtures, by using conventional regulatory methods, for use in manufactured gas waste site remediation. A secondary purpose was to investigate the validity of using the concentration of a single potent carcinogen, in this case benzo(a)pyrene, to estimate the relative risk for a coal tar mixture. The study has shown that BaP dominates the cancer risk when its concentration is greater than 6,300 ppm in the coal tar mixture. In this case the most sensitive tissue site is the forestomach. Using low-dose linear extrapolation, the lifetime cancer risk for humans is estimated to be: Risk -4 (ppm coal tar in total diet) + 240 x 10 -4 (ppm BaP in total diet), based on forestomach tumors. If the BaP concentration in the coal tar mixture is less than 6,300 ppm, the more likely case, then lung tumors provide the largest estimated upper limit of risk, Risk -4 (ppm coal tar in total diet), with no contribution of BaP to lung tumors. The upper limit of the cancer potency (slope factor) for lifetime oral exposure to benzo(a)pyrene is 1.2 x 10 -3 per microg per kg body weight per day from this Good Laboratory Practice (GLP) study compared with the current value of 7.3 x 10 -3 per microg per kg body weight per day listed in the US EPA Integrated Risk Information System

  18. Estimated risk from exposure to radon decay products in US homes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nero, A.V. Jr.

    1986-05-01

    Recent analyses now permit direct estimation of the risks of lung cancer from radon decay products in US homes. Analysis of data from indoor monitoring in single-family homes yields a tentative frequency distribution of annual-average 222 Rn concentrations averaging 55 Bq m -3 and having 2% of homes exceeding 300 Bq m -3 . Application of the results of occupational epidemiological studies, either directly or using recent advances in lung dosimetry, to indoor exposures suggests that the average indoor concentration entails a lifetime risk of lung cancer of 0.3% or about 10% of the total risk of lung cancer. The risk to individuals occupying the homes with 300 Bq m -3 or more for their lifetimes is estimated to exceed 2%, with risks from the homes with thousands of Bq m -3 correspondingly higher, even exceeding the total risk of premature death due to cigarette smoking. The potential for such average and high-level risks in ordinary homes forces development of a new perspective on environmental exposures

  19. Emerging infectious disease outbreaks: estimating disease risk in Australian blood donors travelling overseas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coghlan, A; Hoad, V C; Seed, C R; Flower, R Lp; Harley, R J; Herbert, D; Faddy, H M

    2018-01-01

    International travel assists spread of infectious pathogens. Australians regularly travel to South-eastern Asia and the isles of the South Pacific, where they may become infected with infectious agents, such as dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses that pose a potential risk to transfusion safety. In Australia, donors are temporarily restricted from donating for fresh component manufacture following travel to many countries, including those in this study. We aimed to estimate the unmitigated transfusion-transmission (TT) risk from donors travelling internationally to areas affected by emerging infectious diseases. We used the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool, with travel and notification data, to estimate the TT risk from donors travelling to areas affected by disease outbreaks: Fiji (DENV), Bali (DENV), Phuket (DENV), Indonesia (CHIKV) and French Polynesia (ZIKV). We predict minimal risk from travel, with the annual unmitigated risk of an infected component being released varying from 1 in 1·43 million to disease outbreak areas to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach. © 2017 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  20. Risk estimates of HIV and HBV infection to the dental operator via ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    RISK ESTIMATES OF HIV AND HBV INFECTION. TO THE DENTAL OPERATOR VIA. PRICK ACCIDENTS. W.H. van Palenstein Helderman. Department of Community and Preventive Dentistry,. Faculty of Dentistry, Muhirilbili University College of Health Sciences,. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. , Introduction. Intact skin provides ...

  1. Correction: No Child Left Alone: Moral Judgments about Parents Affect Estimates of Risk to Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley J. Thomas

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article details a correction to article Thomas, A. J., Stanford, P. K., & Sarnecka, B. W. (2016. No Child Left Alone: Moral Judgments about Parents Affect Estimates of Risk to Children. 'Collabra', 2(1, 10. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.33

  2. A simultaneous approach to the estimation of risk aversion and the subjective time discount rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, A.S.; van Praag, B.M.S.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we analyze a sample of 1832 individuals who responded to six randomly generated lottery questions that differ with respect to chance, prize and the timing of the draw. Using a model that explicitly allows for consumption smoothing, we obtain an estimate of relative risk aversion of 82.

  3. Nonparametric Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Functions for Competing Risks Data with Missing Cause of Failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Effraimidis, Georgios; Dahl, Christian Møller

    In this paper, we develop a fully nonparametric approach for the estimation of the cumulative incidence function with Missing At Random right-censored competing risks data. We obtain results on the pointwise asymptotic normality as well as the uniform convergence rate of the proposed nonparametric...

  4. Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogel, L.; Verschuure, H.; Ploeg, C.P.B. van der; Brug, J.; Raat, H.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives. We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. Methods. In 2007, 1512 adolescents

  5. Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Vogel (Ineke); H. Verschuure (Hans); C.P.B. van der Ploeg (Catharina); J. Brug (Hans); H. Raat (Hein)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractObjectives. We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. Methods. In 2007, 1512

  6. estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-03-03

    Mar 3, 2014 ... ESTIMATED GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE AND RISK OF SURVIVAL IN ACUTE STROKE. E. I. Okaka, MBBS, FWACP, F. A. Imarhiagbe, MBChB, FMCP, F. E. Odiase, MBBS, FMCP, O. C. A. Okoye, MBBS, FWACP,. Department of Medicine, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria.

  7. Artificial force fields for multi-agent simulations of maritime traffic and risk estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xiao, F.; Ligteringen, H.; Van Gulijk, C.; Ale, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    A probabilistic risk model is designed to estimate probabilities of collisions for shipping accidents in busy waterways. We propose a method based on multi-agent simulation that uses an artificial force field to model ship maneuvers. The artificial force field is calibrated by AIS data (Automatic

  8. A-BOMB SURVIVOR SITE-SPECIFIC RADIOGENIC CANCER RISKS ESTIMATES

    Science.gov (United States)

    A draft manuscript is being prepared that describes ways to improve estimates of risk from radiation that have been derived from A-bomb survivors. The work has been published in the journal Radiation Research volume 169, pages 87-98.

  9. Improved Radiation Dosimetry/Risk Estimates to Facilitate Environmental Management of Plutonium Contaminated Sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Bobby R.

    1999-01-01

    The objective of this research is to evaluate distributions of possible alpha radiation doses to the lung, bone, and liver, and associated health-risk distributions for plutonium (Pu) inhalation exposure scenarios relevant to environmental management of PuO2-contaminated sites. Currently available dosimetry/risk models do not apply to exposure scenarios where relatively small numbers of highly radioactive PuO2 particles are presented for inhalation (stochastic exposure [SE] paradigm). For the SE paradigm, distributions of possible risks are more relevant than point estimates of risk. The main goal of the project is to deliver a computer program that will allow evaluation of the indicated risk distributions for the SE paradigm. However, some of our work also relates to the deterministic exposure [DE] paradigm where large numbers of airborne particles (resuspended dust containing PuO2) are presented for inhalation to members of the public residing or working at a remediated Department of Energy (DOE) site

  10. Estimate of person-years at risk among A-bomb survivors, Hiroshima and Nagasaki

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hrubec, Z

    1964-11-19

    Using information from the Supplementary Schedules of the 1950 National Census and from the JNIH-ABCC Life Span Study, cumulative person-years at risk in 1950 to 1960 were estimated by age ATB, sex, distance from hypocenter, radiation dose and symptoms for A-bomb survivors resident in Hiroshima and Nagasaki cities. The number of person-years at risk in 1951 to 1958 was estimated by applying the survivorship in each age group of the Adult Health Study sample during the period 1951 to 1958 to the number of survivors in 1950. To determine the number of person-years at risk from 1959 to 1960, the average yearly loss was evaluated for each exposure group for the period 1955 to 1958 in Hiroshima and for 1953 to 1958 in Nagasaki which was then applied to 1959 and 1960, respectively. The estimate of person-years among the nonexposed groups for this period was obtained from the above estimates, the total population of both cities, and the number of persons born after the A-bombing. Estimates by other associated factors were obtained by the same procedure. 20 references, 25 tables.

  11. Effect of Using Different Vehicle Weight Groups on the Estimated Relationship Between Mass Reduction and U.S. Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area. Building Technology and Urban Systems Division

    2016-08-22

    This report recalculates the estimated relationship between vehicle mass and societal fatality risk, using alternative groupings by vehicle weight, to test whether the trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction as case vehicle mass increases, holds over smaller increments of the range in case vehicle masses. The NHTSA baseline regression model estimates the relationship using for two weight groups for cars and light trucks; we re-estimated the mass reduction coefficients using four, six, and eight bins of vehicle mass. The estimated effect of mass reduction on societal fatality risk was not consistent over the range in vehicle masses in these weight bins. These results suggest that the relationship indicated by the NHTSA baseline model is a result of other, unmeasured attributes of the mix of vehicles in the lighter vs. heavier weight bins, and not necessarily the result of a correlation between mass reduction and societal fatality risk. An analysis of the average vehicle, driver, and crash characteristics across the various weight groupings did not reveal any strong trends that might explain the lack of a consistent trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction in heavier vehicles.

  12. Multiple imputation for estimating the risk of developing dementia and its impact on survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S; Launer, Lenore

    2010-10-01

    Dementia, Alzheimer's disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. In this article we use multiple imputation to fit multi-state models for survival data with interval censoring and left truncation. This approach allows semi-Markov models in which survival after dementia depends on onset age. Such models can be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing dementia in the presence of the competing risk of dementia-free death. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the proposed method. Data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study are analyzed to estimate the age-specific and cumulative risks of dementia and to examine the effect of major risk factors on dementia onset and death.

  13. Value at risk estimation with entropy-based wavelet analysis in exchange markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Kaijian; Wang, Lijun; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

    2014-08-01

    In recent years, exchange markets are increasingly integrated together. Fluctuations and risks across different exchange markets exhibit co-moving and complex dynamics. In this paper we propose the entropy-based multivariate wavelet based approaches to analyze the multiscale characteristic in the multidimensional domain and improve further the Value at Risk estimation reliability. Wavelet analysis has been introduced to construct the entropy-based Multiscale Portfolio Value at Risk estimation algorithm to account for the multiscale dynamic correlation. The entropy measure has been proposed as the more effective measure with the error minimization principle to select the best basis when determining the wavelet families and the decomposition level to use. The empirical studies conducted in this paper have provided positive evidence as to the superior performance of the proposed approach, using the closely related Chinese Renminbi and European Euro exchange market.

  14. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  15. Model estimation of claim risk and premium for motor vehicle insurance by using Bayesian method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukono; Riaman; Lesmana, E.; Wulandari, R.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.

    2018-01-01

    Risk models need to be estimated by the insurance company in order to predict the magnitude of the claim and determine the premiums charged to the insured. This is intended to prevent losses in the future. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of risk model claims and motor vehicle insurance premiums using Bayesian methods approach. It is assumed that the frequency of claims follow a Poisson distribution, while a number of claims assumed to follow a Gamma distribution. The estimation of parameters of the distribution of the frequency and amount of claims are made by using Bayesian methods. Furthermore, the estimator distribution of frequency and amount of claims are used to estimate the aggregate risk models as well as the value of the mean and variance. The mean and variance estimator that aggregate risk, was used to predict the premium eligible to be charged to the insured. Based on the analysis results, it is shown that the frequency of claims follow a Poisson distribution with parameter values λ is 5.827. While a number of claims follow the Gamma distribution with parameter values p is 7.922 and θ is 1.414. Therefore, the obtained values of the mean and variance of the aggregate claims respectively are IDR 32,667,489.88 and IDR 38,453,900,000,000.00. In this paper the prediction of the pure premium eligible charged to the insured is obtained, which amounting to IDR 2,722,290.82. The prediction of the claims and premiums aggregate can be used as a reference for the insurance company’s decision-making in management of reserves and premiums of motor vehicle insurance.

  16. Flexible semiparametric joint modeling: an application to estimate individual lung function decline and risk of pulmonary exacerbations in cystic fibrosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Li

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiologic surveillance of lung function is key to clinical care of individuals with cystic fibrosis, but lung function decline is nonlinear and often impacted by acute respiratory events known as pulmonary exacerbations. Statistical models are needed to simultaneously estimate lung function decline while providing risk estimates for the onset of pulmonary exacerbations, in order to identify relevant predictors of declining lung function and understand how these associations could be used to predict the onset of pulmonary exacerbations. Methods Using longitudinal lung function (FEV1 measurements and time-to-event data on pulmonary exacerbations from individuals in the United States Cystic Fibrosis Registry, we implemented a flexible semiparametric joint model consisting of a mixed-effects submodel with regression splines to fit repeated FEV1 measurements and a time-to-event submodel for possibly censored data on pulmonary exacerbations. We contrasted this approach with methods currently used in epidemiological studies and highlight clinical implications. Results The semiparametric joint model had the best fit of all models examined based on deviance information criterion. Higher starting FEV1 implied more rapid lung function decline in both separate and joint models; however, individualized risk estimates for pulmonary exacerbation differed depending upon model type. Based on shared parameter estimates from the joint model, which accounts for the nonlinear FEV1 trajectory, patients with more positive rates of change were less likely to experience a pulmonary exacerbation (HR per one standard deviation increase in FEV1 rate of change = 0.566, 95% CI 0.516–0.619, and having higher absolute FEV1 also corresponded to lower risk of having a pulmonary exacerbation (HR per one standard deviation increase in FEV1 = 0.856, 95% CI 0.781–0.937. At the population level, both submodels indicated significant effects of birth

  17. A study on the estimation method of nuclear accident risk cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuji

    2016-01-01

    The methodology of estimating nuclear accident risk cost, as a part of nuclear power generation cost, has hardly been established due mainly to the extremely wide range of the estimation of the accident frequency. This study estimates the expected nuclear accident frequency for Japan, making use of the method of Bayesian statistics, which exploits both the information obtained by Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the observed historical accident frequencies. Using the PRA estimation of the Containment Failure Frequency (CFF) for Tomari nuclear power plant unit 3 of Hokkaido Electric Power Company (average: 2.1 x 10 -4 , 95th percentile: 7.7 x 10 -4 ) and the actual large-scale accident frequency (once in 1,460 reactor-years), the posterior CFF was estimated at 3.8 x 10 -4 . This study also took into account the 'external' factor causing unexpected nuclear accidents, concluding that such factor could result in higher CFF estimations, especially with larger observed accident numbers. (author)

  18. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

  19. Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashizume, Tadashi; Maruyama, Takashi; Noda, Yutaka; Iwai, Kazuo; Tateno, Y.; Nishizawa, Kanae.

    1981-01-01

    The risks of genetic, leukemia and malignant diseases from medical X-ray diagnostic examinations were estimated using the frequency of radiographic and fluoroscopic exposures per diagnostic examination, child expectancy, leukemia and malignancy significant factors, and using a weighting factor determined on the basis of data concerning the cancer mortality among atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki and of a recommendation of International Commission of Radiological Protection. The organ or tissue doses with respect to the stochastic risks were determined with ionization chambers and thermoluminescent dosimeters placed at the positions of the organs or tissues in a RANDO woman phantom which was exposed to diagnostic X-rays according to technical factors of typical radiographic and fluoroscopic examinations obtained from a nationwide survey. The resultant risks by age-group and type of radiographic and fluoroscopic examination are tabulated in terms of risk level of 10 -6 . In general, the total risk defined as the sum of genetic, leukemia and malignant risks was a high value for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs involving barium meal and barium enema. For example, the total risk for young age-group was 100 to 200 x 10 -6 for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk from the chest radiography was lower value as compared with the risk from the X-ray diagnosis of other organs or tissues. On the contrary, the risk from the chest tomography was comparable to the risk from the diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk decreased with increasing of age for every X-ray diagnostic examination. (author)

  20. We can do better than effective dose for estimating or comparing low-dose radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenner, D.J.

    2012-01-01

    The effective dose concept was designed to compare the generic risks of exposure to different radiation fields. More commonly these days, it is used to estimate or compare radiation-induced cancer risks. For various reasons, effective dose represents flawed science: for instance, the tissue-specific weighting factors used to calculate effective dose are a subjective mix of different endpoints; and the marked and differing age and gender dependencies for different health detriment endpoints are not taken into account. This paper suggests that effective dose could be replaced with a new quantity, ‘effective risk’, which, like effective dose, is a weighted sum of equivalent doses to different tissues. Unlike effective dose, where the tissue-dependent weighting factors are a set of generic, subjective committee-defined numbers, the weighting factors for effective risk are simply evaluated tissue-specific lifetime cancer risks per unit equivalent dose. Effective risk, which has the potential to be age and gender specific if desired, would perform the same comparative role as effective dose, be just as easy to estimate, be less prone to misuse, be more directly understandable, and would be based on solid science. An added major advantage is that it gives the users some feel for the actual numerical values of the radiation risks they are trying to control.

  1. Estimating young Australian adults' risk of hearing damage from selected leisure activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Elizabeth; Williams, Warwick; Gilliver, Megan

    2013-01-01

    Several previous studies have attempted to estimate the risk of noise-induced hearing loss from loud leisure noise. Some of these studies may have overestimated the risk because they used noise estimates taken from the higher end of reported levels. The aim of the present study was to provide a realistic estimate of the number of young Australian adults who may be at risk of hearing damage and eventual hearing loss from leisure-noise exposure. Average noise levels at five high-noise leisure activities, (1) nightclubs; (2) pubs, bars, and registered clubs; (3) fitness classes; (4) live sporting events; (5) concerts and live music venues, were calculated using 108 measurements taken from a large database of leisure noise measurements. In addition, an online survey was administered to a convenience sample of 1000 young adults aged 18 to 35 years, who reported the time spent at these leisure activities and the frequency with which they undertook the activities. They also answered questions about tinnitus and their perceived risk of hearing damage. Although the survey data cannot be considered representative of the population of young Australian adults, it was weighted to this population in respect of age, gender, education, and location. The survey data and the average noise levels were used to estimate each individual's annual noise exposure, and in turn, estimate those at risk of hearing damage from leisure-noise exposure. For the majority of participants (n = 868), the accumulated leisure noise level was within the acceptable workplace limit. However, 132 participants or 14.1% (population weighted) were exposed to an annual noise dose greater than the acceptable workplace noise limit. By far, the main source of high-risk leisure noise was from nightclubs. Those with more leisure-noise exposure experienced more tinnitus and perceived themselves to be more at risk than those with lower noise exposures. It is recommended that nightclub operators reduce noise levels

  2. Counselees’ expressed level of understanding of the risk estimate and surveillance recommendation are not associated with breast cancer surveillance adherence.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albada, A.; Dulmen, S. van; Dijkstra, H.; Wieffer, I.; Witkamp, A.; Ausems, M.G.E.M.

    2016-01-01

    We studied counselees’ expressed understanding of the risk estimate and surveillance recommendation in the final consultation for breast cancer genetic counseling in relation with their risk perception, worry and cancer surveillance adherence 1 year post-counseling. Consecutive counselees were

  3. Quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate the health risk from exposure to noroviruses in polluted surface water in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Abel, Nicole; Mans, Janet; Taylor, Maureen B

    2017-10-01

    This study assessed the risks posed by noroviruses (NoVs) in surface water used for drinking, domestic, and recreational purposes in South Africa (SA), using a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) methodology that took a probabilistic approach coupling an exposure assessment with four dose-response models to account for uncertainty. Water samples from three rivers were found to be contaminated with NoV GI (80-1,900 gc/L) and GII (420-9,760 gc/L) leading to risk estimates that were lower for GI than GII. The volume of water consumed and the probabilities of infection were lower for domestic (2.91 × 10 -8 to 5.19 × 10 -1 ) than drinking water exposures (1.04 × 10 -5 to 7.24 × 10 -1 ). The annual probabilities of illness varied depending on the type of recreational water exposure with boating (3.91 × 10 -6 to 5.43 × 10 -1 ) and swimming (6.20 × 10 -6 to 6.42 × 10 -1 ) being slightly greater than playing next to/in the river (5.30 × 10 -7 to 5.48 × 10 -1 ). The QMRA was sensitive to the choice of dose-response model. The risk of NoV infection or illness from contaminated surface water is extremely high in SA, especially for lower socioeconomic individuals, but is similar to reported risks from limited international studies.

  4. Methodology to estimate the cost of the severe accidents risk / maximum benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza, G.; Flores, R. M.; Vega, E.

    2016-09-01

    For programs and activities to manage aging effects, any changes to plant operations, inspections, maintenance activities, systems and administrative control procedures during the renewal period should be characterized, designed to manage the effects of aging as required by 10 Cfr Part 54 that could impact the environment. Environmental impacts significantly different from those described in the final environmental statement for the current operating license should be described in detail. When complying with the requirements of a license renewal application, the Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis is contained in a supplement to the environmental report of the plant that meets the requirements of 10 Cfr Part 51. In this paper, the methodology for estimating the cost of severe accidents risk is established and discussed, which is then used to identify and select the alternatives for severe accident mitigation, which are analyzed to estimate the maximum benefit that an alternative could achieve if this eliminate all risk. Using the regulatory analysis techniques of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) estimates the cost of severe accidents risk. The ultimate goal of implementing the methodology is to identify candidates for SAMA that have the potential to reduce the severe accidents risk and determine if the implementation of each candidate is cost-effective. (Author)

  5. Association of Type D personality with unhealthy lifestyle, and estimated risk of coronary events in the general Icelandic population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Svansdóttir, E.; Denollet, J.; Thorsson, B.; Gudnason, T.; Halldorsdottir, S.; Gudnason, V.; van den Broek, K.C.; Karlsson, D.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Type D personality is associated with an increased morbidity and mortality risk in cardiovascular disease patients, but the mechanisms explaining this risk are unclear. We examined whether Type D was associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors, estimated risk of developing

  6. Incorporation of formal safety assessment and Bayesian network in navigational risk estimation of the Yangtze River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, D.; Yan, X.P.; Yang, Z.L.; Wall, A.; Wang, J.

    2013-01-01

    Formal safety assessment (FSA), as a structured and systematic risk evaluation methodology, has been increasingly and broadly used in the shipping industry around the world. Concerns have been raised as to navigational safety of the Yangtze River, China's largest and the world's busiest inland waterway. Over the last few decades, the throughput of ships in the Yangtze River has increased rapidly due to the national development of the Middle and Western parts of China. Accidents such as collisions, groundings, contacts, oil-spills and fires occur repeatedly, often causing serious consequences. In order to improve the navigational safety in the Yangtze River, this paper estimates the navigational risk of the Yangtze River using the FSA concept and a Bayesian network (BN) technique. The navigational risk model is established by considering both probability and consequences of accidents with respect to a risk matrix method, followed by a scenario analysis to demonstrate the application of the proposed model

  7. Use of GIS in the estimation and development of risk reduction technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Jae Joo

    1998-03-01

    The occurrence probability of a severe accident in the nuclear power plant is very small because the safety of a plant and the public is considered in the design and operation of a nuclear power plant. However, if a severe accident occurs, the establishment of a reduction strategy of damages resulting from it is essential because the effect of it on the human and the environment is very large. The important criterion which determines the severity of an accident is risk, which is defined as the product of its frequently and the consequence. The establishment of countermeasures in order to estimate and reduce risks quantitatively can be a very powerful tool to minimize the effect of an accident on the human and the environment. The research on the establishment of a framework which integrates a geographic information system (GIS), a database management system (DBMS), and decision making support system (DMSS) is considered very actively. Based on these systems, we can accomplish the estimation and display of risks and the development of reduction methodologies which are essential parts of an accident management of a nuclear power plant. The GIS plays a role to support users to systematize and comprehend spatial relationships of information which are necessary for the decision making. Through the DBMS, we can establish and manage spatial and attribute data, and use them in the query and selection. The DMSS is a computer-based information system which makes a necessary decision easily. In this study, we reviewed the fundamental concepts of a GIS and examined the methodology for the use of it in the estimation and display of risks. Also, we established the fundamental GIS platform of a Yonggwang site and the necessary database systems for the estimation of risks. (author). 17 refs., 9 tabs., 34 figs

  8. Fatalities in high altitude mountaineering: a review of quantitative risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinbruch, Stephan; Nordby, Karl-Christian

    2013-12-01

    Quantitative estimates for mortality in high altitude mountaineering are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on the heterogeneity of the risk estimates and on confounding. Crude estimates for mortality are on the order of 1/1000 to 40/1000 persons above base camp, for both expedition members and high altitude porters. High altitude porters have mostly a lower risk than expedition members (risk ratio for all Nepalese peaks requiring an expedition permit: 0.73; 95 % confidence interval 0.59-0.89). The summit bid is generally the most dangerous part of an expedition for members, whereas most high altitude porters die during route preparation. On 8000 m peaks, the mortality during descent from summit varies between 4/1000 and 134/1000 summiteers (members plus porters). The risk estimates are confounded by human and environmental factors. Information on confounding by gender and age is contradictory and requires further work. There are indications for safety segregation of men and women, with women being more risk averse than men. Citizenship appears to be a significant confounder. Prior high altitude mountaineering experience in Nepal has no protective effect. Commercial expeditions in the Nepalese Himalayas have a lower mortality than traditional expeditions, though after controlling for confounding, the difference is not statistically significant. The overall mortality is increasing with increasing peak altitude for expedition members but not for high altitude porters. In the Nepalese Himalayas and in Alaska, a significant decrease of mortality with calendar year was observed. A few suggestions for further work are made at the end of the article.

  9. Performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yelland, Lisa N; Salter, Amy B; Ryan, Philip

    2011-10-15

    Modified Poisson regression, which combines a log Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation, is a useful alternative to log binomial regression for estimating relative risks. Previous studies have shown both analytically and by simulation that modified Poisson regression is appropriate for independent prospective data. This method is often applied to clustered prospective data, despite a lack of evidence to support its use in this setting. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data, by using generalized estimating equations to account for clustering. A simulation study is conducted to compare log binomial regression and modified Poisson regression for analyzing clustered data from intervention and observational studies. Both methods generally perform well in terms of bias, type I error, and coverage. Unlike log binomial regression, modified Poisson regression is not prone to convergence problems. The methods are contrasted by using example data sets from 2 large studies. The results presented in this article support the use of modified Poisson regression as an alternative to log binomial regression for analyzing clustered prospective data when clustering is taken into account by using generalized estimating equations.

  10. Comparison of robustness to outliers between robust poisson models and log-binomial models when estimating relative risks for common binary outcomes: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wansu; Shi, Jiaxiao; Qian, Lei; Azen, Stanley P

    2014-06-26

    To estimate relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes, the most popular model-based methods are the robust (also known as modified) Poisson and the log-binomial regression. Of the two methods, it is believed that the log-binomial regression yields more efficient estimators because it is maximum likelihood based, while the robust Poisson model may be less affected by outliers. Evidence to support the robustness of robust Poisson models in comparison with log-binomial models is very limited. In this study a simulation was conducted to evaluate the performance of the two methods in several scenarios where outliers existed. The findings indicate that for data coming from a population where the relationship between the outcome and the covariate was in a simple form (e.g. log-linear), the two models yielded comparable biases and mean square errors. However, if the true relationship contained a higher order term, the robust Poisson models consistently outperformed the log-binomial models even when the level of contamination is low. The robust Poisson models are more robust (or less sensitive) to outliers compared to the log-binomial models when estimating relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes. Users should be aware of the limitations when choosing appropriate models to estimate relative risks or risk ratios.

  11. Genetic impact of low-level ionizing radiation: risk estimates for first and subsequent generations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamson, S.

    1985-01-01

    This presentation is summarized as follows: (1) a discussion of the induced mutation rates/rad employed to derive central estimates for five major classes of genetic disease; (2) the expected first generation yield of mutations per million liveborn when both parents have received a gonadal exposure of 1 rad; (3) the expected yield of mutant offspring through all time from a single rad of parental exposure; (4) the impact in terms of effective years of life lost; and (5) a prediction of how many induced genetic disorders of each class should be found among the offspring of the A-bomb survivors using the risk estimates presented. 15 references, 6 tables

  12. Radiation dose and cancer risk estimates in helical CT for pulmonary tuberculosis infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeleye Bamise

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The preference for computed tomography (CT for the clinical assessment of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB infections has increased the concern about the potential risk of cancer in exposed patients. In this study, we investigated the correlation between cancer risk and radiation doses from different CT scanners, assuming an equivalent scan protocol. Radiation doses from three 16-slice units were estimated using the CT-Expo dosimetry software version 2.4 and standard CT scan protocol for patients with suspected PTB infections. The lifetime risk of cancer for each scanner was determined using the methodology outlined in the BEIR VII report. Organ doses were significantly different (P < 0.05 between the scanners. The calculated effective dose for scanner H2 is 34% and 37% higher than scanners H3 and H1 respectively. A high and statistically significant correlation was observed between estimated lifetime cancer risk for both male (r2 = 0.943, P < 0.05 and female patients (r2 = 0.989, P < 0.05. The risk variation between the scanners was slightly higher than 2% for all ages but was much smaller for specific ages for male and female patients (0.2% and 0.7%, respectively. These variations provide an indication that the use of a scanner optimizing protocol is imperative.

  13. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2015-01-01

    This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

  14. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiechen Tang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR and conditional value at risk (CVaR. Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

  15. Radiation dose and cancer risk estimates in helical CT for pulmonary tuberculosis infections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeleye, Bamise; Chetty, Naven

    2017-12-01

    The preference for computed tomography (CT) for the clinical assessment of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) infections has increased the concern about the potential risk of cancer in exposed patients. In this study, we investigated the correlation between cancer risk and radiation doses from different CT scanners, assuming an equivalent scan protocol. Radiation doses from three 16-slice units were estimated using the CT-Expo dosimetry software version 2.4 and standard CT scan protocol for patients with suspected PTB infections. The lifetime risk of cancer for each scanner was determined using the methodology outlined in the BEIR VII report. Organ doses were significantly different (P < 0.05) between the scanners. The calculated effective dose for scanner H2 is 34% and 37% higher than scanners H3 and H1 respectively. A high and statistically significant correlation was observed between estimated lifetime cancer risk for both male (r2 = 0.943, P < 0.05) and female patients (r2 = 0.989, P < 0.05). The risk variation between the scanners was slightly higher than 2% for all ages but was much smaller for specific ages for male and female patients (0.2% and 0.7%, respectively). These variations provide an indication that the use of a scanner optimizing protocol is imperative.

  16. Screening effects on thyroid cancer risk estimates for populations affected by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacob, P.; Kaiser, J. C.; Vavilov, S.E.; Bogdanova, T.; Tronko, N. D.

    2004-01-01

    Simulation calculations are performed in order to explore the ecological bias in studies as they are performed with settlement specific data in the aftemath of the Chernobyl accident. Based on methods, that were developed by Lubin for exploring the ecologic bias due to smoking in indoor radon studies of lung cancer, the influence of the introduction of ultrasound devices and enhanced medical surveillance on the detection and reporting of thyroid cancer cases was investigated. Calculations were performed by simulating thyroid doses of one million children in a total of 744 settlements and assuming a linear dependence of the risk on dose and various scenarios of the screening. The dose distributions simulate the distributions similar to those used in previous ecologic studies of the thyroid cancer risk in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. The ecologic bias was defined as the ratio of risk coefficients derived from an ecological study to the corresponding risk factor in the underlying risl model. the ecologic bias was estimated for each of the screening scenarios. Analytical equations were derived that allow the exact numerical compuation of the bias which is determined by covariance terms between the increased detection and reporting on one side and thyroid dose values (individual and averaged for the settlements) on the other side. Nested in th epopulation data, a cohort study was simulated with 10 000 individuals and an average thyroid dose of 0.3 Gy. the present study underlines the different scopes of the ecologic and cohort study designs perfomed in the aftermed of the Chernobyl accident. Whereas the ecologic studies give an estimate of the excess thyroid cancer risks per unit dose under the conditions of a health care system as it is typical for the affected countries after the Chernobyl accident, the cohort study gives risk estimates within a well screened cohort. Due to the strong screening effects, excess absoulte risks in the ecological study cohort are

  17. An adaptive spatio-temporal smoothing model for estimating trends and step changes in disease risk

    OpenAIRE

    Rushworth, Alastair; Lee, Duncan; Sarran, Christophe

    2014-01-01

    Statistical models used to estimate the spatio-temporal pattern in disease\\ud risk from areal unit data represent the risk surface for each time period with known\\ud covariates and a set of spatially smooth random effects. The latter act as a proxy\\ud for unmeasured spatial confounding, whose spatial structure is often characterised by\\ud a spatially smooth evolution between some pairs of adjacent areal units while other\\ud pairs exhibit large step changes. This spatial heterogeneity is not c...

  18. Risk-Cost Estimation of On-Site Wastewater Treatment System Failures Using Extreme Value Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Laura E; Silverstein, JoAnn; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2017-05-01

      Owner resistance to increasing regulation of on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), including obligatory inspections and upgrades, moratoriums and cease-and-desist orders in communities around the U.S. demonstrate the challenges associated with managing risks of inadequate performance of owner-operated wastewater treatment systems. As a result, determining appropriate and enforceable performance measures in an industry with little history of these requirements is challenging. To better support such measures, we develop a statistical method to predict lifetime failure risks, expressed as costs, in order to identify operational factors associated with costly repairs and replacement. A binomial logistic regression is used to fit data from public records of reported OWTS failures, in Boulder County, Colorado, which has 14 300 OWTS to determine the probability that an OWTS will be in a low- or high-risk category for lifetime repair and replacement costs. High-performing or low risk OWTS with repairs and replacements below the threshold of $9000 over a 40-year life are associated with more frequent inspections and upgrades following home additions. OWTS with a high risk of exceeding the repair cost threshold of $18 000 are further analyzed in a variation of extreme value analysis (EVA), Points Over Threshold (POT) where the distribution of risk-cost exceedance values are represented by a generalized Pareto distribution. The resulting threshold cost exceedance estimates for OWTS in the high-risk category over a 40-year expected life ranged from $18 000 to $44 000.

  19. National and subnational hypertension prevalence estimates for the Republic of Ireland: better outcome and risk factor data are needed to produce better prevalence estimates.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Barron, Steve

    2014-01-10

    Hypertension is a global public health challenge. National prevalence estimates can conceal important differences in prevalence in subnational areas. This paper aims to develop a consistent set of national and subnational estimates of the prevalence of hypertension in a country with limited data for subnational areas.

  20. Risk estimation by exposure to PM10 particles in the Toluca Valley

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores R, J.H.; Pena G, P.; Balcazar, M.; Lopez M, A.; Morelos M, J.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Risk estimation to PM10 in the Toluca valley and surrounding areas was estimated, for several return periods, evaluating the occurrence probability to several interval times (1, 5, 10, 12.5, 15, 17.5 and 20 years) using the extreme values of the Gumbel-1 distribution; those intervals were employed to predict and analyze the behaviour of maximum contaminant concentrations in the study region. A high degree of risk to health due to the mean concentration of these particles is obtained from statistical considerations. The evaluation took into consideration the eight monitoring years from the Automatic Atmospheric Monitoring Network (RAMAT) and its output predicts, if present conditions maintain, this statistical relation remain invariant between the next 20 years. Such particles affect the human respiratory system, besides, present a carcinogenic potential due to the volume of hydrocarbons combustion to the atmosphere. (Author)

  1. Non-sedating antihistamine drugs and cardiac arrhythmias -- biased risk estimates from spontaneous reporting systems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Bruin, M L; van Puijenbroek, E P; Egberts, A C G

    2002-01-01

    AIMS: This study used spontaneous reports of adverse events to estimate the risk for developing cardiac arrhythmias due to the systemic use of non-sedating antihistamine drugs and compared the risk estimate before and after the regulatory action to recall the over-the-counter status of some...... of these drugs. METHODS: All suspected adverse drug reactions (ADRs) reported until July 1999 to the Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Foundation Lareb were used to calculate the ADR reporting odds ratio, defined as the ratio of exposure odds among reported arrhythmia cases, to the exposure odds of other ADRs (non......-sedating antihistamines. In general non-sedating antihistamines are associated with cardiac arrhythmia to a higher extent in comparison with other drugs (ADR reporting odds ratio 2.05 [95% CI: 1.45, 2.89]). The association between arrhythmias and non-sedating antihistamine drugs calculated before 1998...

  2. A new technique for fire risk estimation in the wildland urban interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasgupta, S.; Qu, J. J.; Hao, X.

    A novel technique based on the physical variable of pre-ignition energy is proposed for assessing fire risk in the Grassland-Urban-Interface The physical basis lends meaning a site and season independent applicability possibilities for computing spread rates and ignition probabilities features contemporary fire risk indices usually lack The method requires estimates of grass moisture content and temperature A constrained radiative-transfer inversion scheme on MODIS NIR-SWIR reflectances which reduces solution ambiguity is used for grass moisture retrieval while MODIS land surface temperature emissivity products are used for retrieving grass temperature Subpixel urban contamination of the MODIS reflective and thermal signals over a Grassland-Urban-Interface pixel is corrected using periodic estimates of urban influence from high spatial resolution ASTER

  3. Reexamining financial and economic predictability with new estimators of realized variance and variance risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casas, Isabel; Mao, Xiuping; Veiga, Helena

    This study explores the predictive power of new estimators of the equity variance risk premium and conditional variance for future excess stock market returns, economic activity, and financial instability, both during and after the last global financial crisis. These estimators are obtained from...... time-varying coefficient models are the ones showing considerably higher predictive power for stock market returns and financial instability during the financial crisis, suggesting that an extreme volatility period requires models that can adapt quickly to turmoil........ Moreover, a comparison of the overall results reveals that the conditional variance gains predictive power during the global financial crisis period. Furthermore, both the variance risk premium and conditional variance are determined to be predictors of future financial instability, whereas conditional...

  4. Structural Consistency, Consistency, and Sequential Rationality.

    OpenAIRE

    Kreps, David M; Ramey, Garey

    1987-01-01

    Sequential equilibria comprise consistent beliefs and a sequentially ra tional strategy profile. Consistent beliefs are limits of Bayes ratio nal beliefs for sequences of strategies that approach the equilibrium strategy. Beliefs are structurally consistent if they are rationaliz ed by some single conjecture concerning opponents' strategies. Consis tent beliefs are not necessarily structurally consistent, notwithstan ding a claim by Kreps and Robert Wilson (1982). Moreover, the spirit of stru...

  5. Multiple Imputation for Estimating the Risk of Developing Dementia and Its Impact on Survival

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S.; Launer, Lenore J.

    2010-01-01

    Dementia, Alzheimer’s disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. I...

  6. ESTIMATION OF PROCESSES REALIZATION RISK AS A MANNER OF SAFETY MANAGEMENT IN THE INTEGRATED SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Karkoszka

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Realization of quality, environmental and occupational health and safety policy using the proposed model of processes' integrated risk estimation leads to the improvement of the analyzed productive processes by the preventive and corrective actions, and in consequence - to their optimization from the point of view of products' quality and in the aspect of quality of environmental influence and occupational health and safety.

  7. ESTIMATION OF PROCESSES REALIZATION RISK AS A MANNER OF SAFETY MANAGEMENT IN THE INTEGRATED SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Karkoszka

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Realization of quality, environmental and occupational health and safety policy using the proposed model of processes' integrated risk estimation leads to the improvement of the analyzed productive processes by the preventive and corrective actions, and in consequence - to their optimization from the point of view of products' quality and in the aspect of quality of environmental influence and occupational health and safety.

  8. An analytical method of estimating Value-at-Risk on the Belgrade Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obadović Milica D.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents market risk evaluation for a portfolio consisting of shares that are continuously traded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange, by applying the Value-at-Risk model - the analytical method. It describes the manner of analytical method application and compares the results obtained by implementing this method at different confidence levels. Method verification was carried out on the basis of the failure rate that demonstrated the confidence level for which this method was acceptable in view of the given conditions.

  9. Estimation of sport fish harvest for risk and hazard assessment of environmental contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poston, T.M.; Strenge, D.L.

    1989-01-01

    Consumption of contaminated fish flesh can be a significant route of human exposure to hazardous chemicals. Estimation of exposure resulting from the consumption of fish requires knowledge of fish consumption and contaminant levels in the edible portion of fish. Realistic figures of sport fish harvest are needed to estimate consumption. Estimates of freshwater sport fish harvest were developed from a review of 72 articles and reports. Descriptive statistics based on fishing pressure were derived from harvest data for four distinct groups of freshwater sport fish in three water types: streams, lakes, and reservoirs. Regression equations were developed to relate harvest to surface area fished where data bases were sufficiently large. Other aspects of estimating human exposure to contaminants in fish flesh that are discussed include use of bioaccumulation factors for trace metals and organic compounds. Using the bioaccumulation factor and the concentration of contaminants in water as variables in the exposure equation may also lead to less precise estimates of tissue concentration. For instance, muscle levels of contaminants may not increase proportionately with increases in water concentrations, leading to overestimation of risk. In addition, estimates of water concentration may be variable or expressed in a manner that does not truly represent biological availability of the contaminant. These factors are discussed. 45 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs

  10. Estimating the risk of parvovirus B19 infection in blood donors and pregnant women in Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koji Nabae

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Seroepidemiological study of parvovirus B19 has not taken place for some 20 years in Japan. To estimate the risk of parvovirus B19 infection in Japan among blood donors and pregnant women in this century, a seroepidemiological survey and statistical modeling of the force of infection were conducted. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The time- and age-specific seroprevalence data were suggestive of strong age-dependency in the risk of infection. Employing a piecewise constant model, the highest forces of infection of 0.05 and 0.12 per year were observed among those aged 0-4 and 5-9 years, respectively, while estimates among older individuals were less than 0.01 per year. Analyzing the antigen detection data among blood donors, the age-specific proportion positive was highest among those aged 30-39 years, agreeing with the presence of dip in seroprevalence in this age-group. Among pregnant women, up to 107 fetal deaths and 21 hydrops fetalis were estimated to have occurred annually across Japan. CONCLUSIONS: Seroepidemiological profiles of PVB19 infection in Japan was characterized with particular emphasis on the risk of infection in blood donors and the burden of infection among pregnant women. When a vaccine becomes available in the future, a similar seroepidemiological study is expected to play a key role in planning the appropriate immunization policy.

  11. Introduction to dosimetry and risk estimation of second cancer induction following radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, R.M.

    2013-01-01

    This brief review of dosimetry in second cancer dosimetry introduces work carried out by Working Group 9 (Radiation Protection Dosimetry in Medicine) of the European Radiation Dosimetry Group (EURADOS). The work described in the following papers in this edition was presented at a Workshop on Dosimetry for Second Cancer Risk Estimation given at the EURADOS Annual meeting in Vienna on February 8th 2012. The work concentrates on the measurement of out-of-field doses in water tanks and BOMAB-like phantoms using a variety of dosimeters to measure photon and neutron doses. These include optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), radiophotoluminescence (RPL) and thermoluminescence (TLD) dosimeters for photon dosimetry (together with ion chambers for reference measurements traceable to primary standards) and track etch and bubble detectors for neutron measurements. A discussion of the various phantoms available for these measurements is presented together with a brief introduction to a model for the relationship between organ doses and the risk of induction of second cancers. The estimation of second cancer risks is not trivial and involves processes which are currently incompletely understood. However, progress in this field requires a robust foundation and methodology for the measurement or calculation of organ doses following radiotherapy, so that risks can be placed in perspective, algorithms for out-of-field doses can be compared with measured data, and future epidemiological studies may have a reliable foundation of organ dosimetry for retrospective dosimetry studies. -- Highlights: ► Brief review of second cancer induction following radiotherapy. ► Out-of-field doses for estimating risks to remote organs. ► Introduction to dosimetry techniques and dosimeters used. ► Out-of-field dose measurements in phantoms

  12. Problems and solutions in the estimation of genetic risks from radiation and chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, W.L.

    1980-01-01

    Extensive investigations with mice on the effects of various physical and biological factors, such as dose rate, sex and cell stage, on radiation-induced mutation have provided an evaluation of the genetics hazards of radiation in man. The mutational results obtained in both sexes with progressive lowering of the radiation dose rate have permitted estimation of the mutation frequency expected under the low-level radiation conditions of most human exposure. Supplementing the studies on mutation frequency are investigations on the phenotypic effects of mutations in mice, particularly anatomical disorders of the skeleton, which allow an estimation of the degree of human handicap associated with the occurrence of parallel defects in man. Estimation of the genetic risk from chemical mutagens is much more difficult, and the research is much less advanced. Results on transmitted mutations in mice indicate a poor correlation with mutation induction in non-mammalian organisms

  13. Theoretical epidemiology applied to health physics: estimation of the risk of radiation-induced breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutherland, J.V.

    1983-01-01

    Indirect estimation of low-dose radiation hazards is possible using the multihit model of carcinogenesis. This model is based on cancer incidence data collected over many decades on tens of millions of people. Available data on human radiation effects can be introduced into the modeling process without the requirement that these data precisely define the model to be used. This reduction in the information demanded from the limited data on human radiation effects allows a more rational approach to estimation of low-dose radiation hazards and helps to focus attention on research directed towards understanding the process of carcinogenesis, rather than on repeating human or animal experiments that cannot provide sufficient data to resolve the low-dose estimation problem. Assessment of the risk of radiation-induced breast cancer provides an excellent example of the utility of multihit modeling procedures

  14. Medical radiological consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe in Russia. Estimation of radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, V.; Tsyb, A.; Ivanov, S.; Pokrovsky, V.

    2004-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident, one of the worst radiation-related disasters ever, occurred about 18 year ago. A lot has been done over the past years to mitigate the consequences of this accident, especially in the worst affected territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. The efforts to study health effects of the accident, however, need to be continued for many years to come, being an integral part of developing a general strategy for dealing with long-term effects. The question now arises: To what extent health consequences could be evaluated in 1986, given the existing scientific base of radiation epidemiology? The latest 20-30 years have seen a rapid development of radiation epidemiology, which was brought about, first of all, by the need to analyze long-term radiation effects of the 1945 atomic bombing in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It may now be considered as proved that high and medium radiation doses (above 0.3 Sv) lead to an increase in cancer incidence rates. Based on the Japanese data, the ICRP proposed mathematical models to be used for predicting long-term effects of radiation exposure. This brings up a question: Are radiation risks derived for Hiroshima and Nagasaki applicable to low doses (0.2 Sv)? An answer is critically important, as the overwhelming majority of emergency workers and the population exposed as a result of the Chernobyl accident received doses within this range. Actually, understanding of these issues is crucial for dealing with long-term radiation effects of the Chernobyl accident. Deriving radiation risk factors for the Japanese cohort with medium and high doses was based on large-scale epidemiological studies of 86.5 thousand people during a prolonged period. As of now, no other approaches exist to estimating long-term radiation effects. Following the Chernobyl accident the All-Union Distributed Registry of persons exposed to radiation was established as soon as in the summer 1986. The Research Institute of Medical Radiology (Medical

  15. Parametric estimation of P(X > Y) for normal distributions in the context of probabilistic environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Rianne; Bekker, Andriëtte A; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the risk, P(X > Y), in probabilistic environmental risk assessment of nanoparticles is a problem when confronted by potentially small risks and small sample sizes of the exposure concentration X and/or the effect concentration Y. This is illustrated in the motivating case study of aquatic risk assessment of nano-Ag. A non-parametric estimator based on data alone is not sufficient as it is limited by sample size. In this paper, we investigate the maximum gain possible when making strong parametric assumptions as opposed to making no parametric assumptions at all. We compare maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators with the non-parametric estimator and study the influence of sample size and risk on the (interval) estimators via simulation. We found that the parametric estimators enable us to estimate and bound the risk for smaller sample sizes and small risks. Also, the Bayesian estimator outperforms the maximum likelihood estimators in terms of coverage and interval lengths and is, therefore, preferred in our motivating case study.

  16. Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

    2015-02-01

    When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

    1984-05-01

    Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based on this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables

  18. Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

    1984-05-01

    Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based on this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables.

  19. Performance of models for estimating absolute risk difference in multicenter trials with binary outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Pedroza

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reporting of absolute risk difference (RD is recommended for clinical and epidemiological prospective studies. In analyses of multicenter studies, adjustment for center is necessary when randomization is stratified by center or when there is large variation in patients outcomes across centers. While regression methods are used to estimate RD adjusted for baseline predictors and clustering, no formal evaluation of their performance has been previously conducted. Methods We performed a simulation study to evaluate 6 regression methods fitted under a generalized estimating equation framework: binomial identity, Poisson identity, Normal identity, log binomial, log Poisson, and logistic regression model. We compared the model estimates to unadjusted estimates. We varied the true response function (identity or log, number of subjects per center, true risk difference, control outcome rate, effect of baseline predictor, and intracenter correlation. We compared the models in terms of convergence, absolute bias and coverage of 95 % confidence intervals for RD. Results The 6 models performed very similar to each other for the majority of scenarios. However, the log binomial model did not converge for a large portion of the scenarios including a baseline predictor. In scenarios with outcome rate close to the parameter boundary, the binomial and Poisson identity models had the best performance, but differences from other models were negligible. The unadjusted method introduced little bias to the RD estimates, but its coverage was larger than the nominal value in some scenarios with an identity response. Under the log response, coverage from the unadjusted method was well below the nominal value (<80 % for some scenarios. Conclusions We recommend the use of a binomial or Poisson GEE model with identity link to estimate RD for correlated binary outcome data. If these models fail to run, then either a logistic regression, log Poisson

  20. Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyeongah Nah

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background. An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV infection has attracted global attention. ZIKV is conveyed by a mosquito vector, Aedes species, which also acts as the vector species of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Methods. Arrival time of ZIKV importation (i.e., the time at which the first imported case was diagnosed in each imported country was collected from publicly available data sources. Employing a survival analysis model in which the hazard is an inverse function of the effective distance as informed by the airline transportation network data, and using dengue and chikungunya virus transmission data, risks of importation and local transmission were estimated. Results. A total of 78 countries with imported case(s have been identified, with the arrival time ranging from 1 to 44 weeks since the first ZIKV was identified in Brazil, 2015. Whereas the risk of importation was well explained by the airline transportation network data, the risk of local transmission appeared to be best captured by additionally accounting for the presence of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Discussion. The risk of importation may be high given continued global travel of mildly infected travelers but, considering that the public health concerns over ZIKV infection stems from microcephaly, it is more important to focus on the risk of local and widespread transmission that could involve pregnant women. The predicted risk of local transmission was frequently seen in tropical and subtropical countries with dengue or chikungunya epidemic experience.

  1. [Estimation of the risk of upper digestive tract bleeding in patients with portal cavernomatosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couselo, M; Ibáñez, V; Mangas, L; Gómez-Chacón, J; Vila Carbó, J J

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is to find out the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGB) after the diagnosis of portal cavernoma in children, and to investigate several potential risk factors. We analyzed retrospectively 13 cases of portal cavernoma and estimated the risk of UGB with the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. We calculated the incidence rate of the sample and the number of haemorrhages per year for each patient individually. From the moment of the diagnosis various parameters were recorded: age, platelets, leukocytes, hemoblobin, hematocrit, prothrombin time and number of bleedings. The relation between these parameters and the risk of bleeding was assessed with the Cox analysis. The patients were followed for a median period of 7.1 years. 10 patients (77%) presented at least 1 episode of UGB after the diagnosis. The median survival time until the first haemorrhage was 314 days. After the diagnosis the incidence rate of the sample was 0.43 episodes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding per person-year. The number of individual bleedings per person had a range of 0-2.2 episodes per year. There is very few data about the risk of bleeding in children with portal cavernoma. In our sample, we found out an incidence rate of 0.43 and a median survival time of 314 days until the first episode of bleeding after the diagnosis, but we were not able to find a statistically significant association between the studied variables and the risk of bleeding.

  2. Evidence that Risk Adjustment is Unnecessary in Estimates of the User Cost of Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego A. Restrepo-Tobón

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Investors value the  special attributes of monetary assets (e.g.,  exchangeability, liquidity, and safety  and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate. The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the  returns on illiquid risky assets and  those of safer liquid assets. A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the  differential risk of the  assets in question. We investigate the  impact that time  non-separable preferences has on the  estimation of the  risk-adjusted user cost of money. Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model  with money  in the utility function and  find that the  risk  adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible. Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the  user cost of money  in constructing monetary aggregate indexes.

  3. Long-term modelling for estimation of man-induced environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahura, A.; Baklanov, A.; Sorensen, J.H.; Tridvornov, A.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: As a part of the EU coordination action project ENVIRO-RISKS the long-term regional and transboundary atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition of atmospheric pollutants is investigated. Focus is on pollutants originating at nuclear and chemical risk sites of the NIS countries. Potential sources of atmospheric pollution include chemical and metallurgical enterprises and smelters, former testing polygons of nuclear weapons, and nuclear plants and facilities. These are situated within territories of Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Russia (the Siberian, Ural, Krasnoyarsk, and Kola regions). The atmospheric pollutants considered are radionuclides such as Cs-137, I-131, and Sr-90 as well as sulphates and heavy metals. The Danish Emergency Model for Atmosphere (DERMA) is employed for simulations using 3D meteorological fields from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The modeled concentration and deposition fields of atmospheric pollutants are used as input into further collaborative studies to estimate the man-induced environmental risks from regionally and remotely located potential sources with a focus on Siberian territories. The temporal and spatial variability of these fields and the probabilities and contribution of removal during atmospheric transport are evaluated. Possible approaches for further GIS integration and use of obtained results are discussed with respect to estimation of man-received doses and risks, impact on environment with a focus on forests, applicability for integrated systems for regional environmental monitoring and management, and others. (author)

  4. Estimate of the economy-wide financial risk associated with a serious nuclear reactor accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; George, V.P.

    1985-01-01

    Since the accident at Three Mile Island, considerable attention has focused on the financial risks associated with nuclear reactor accidents. Previous studies have calculated the plant-specific financial risk due to primarily off-site consequences, including most probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) beginning first with the Reactor Safety Study. Previous studies, however, have not studied the possible economy-wide costs of a severe reactor accident due to such considerations as adverse public opinion, enhanced concern in the financial community, and, particularly, regulatory constraints placed on the industry subsequent to an accident. These considerations could lead to a spectrum of scenarios, including partial or complete nuclear moratoria, which may have far reaching economy-wide effects. It is the purpose of this study to provide an estimate of these effects, and to compare these estimates with the plant-specific financial risks calculated earlier by others. First, a model is presented for including the impact of various regulatory response options on the nuclear industry, followed by a discussion of how the economy-wide costs associated with these options may be calculated. Then, results of series of calculations are presented, and finally, conclusions are given

  5. Aid decision algorithms to estimate the risk in congenital heart surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Fernández, Daniel; Monsalve Torra, Ana; Soriano-Payá, Antonio; Marín-Alonso, Oscar; Triana Palencia, Eddy

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, we have tested the suitability of using different artificial intelligence-based algorithms for decision support when classifying the risk of congenital heart surgery. In this sense, classification of those surgical risks provides enormous benefits as the a priori estimation of surgical outcomes depending on either the type of disease or the type of repair, and other elements that influence the final result. This preventive estimation may help to avoid future complications, or even death. We have evaluated four machine learning algorithms to achieve our objective: multilayer perceptron, self-organizing map, radial basis function networks and decision trees. The architectures implemented have the aim of classifying among three types of surgical risk: low complexity, medium complexity and high complexity. Accuracy outcomes achieved range between 80% and 99%, being the multilayer perceptron method the one that offered a higher hit ratio. According to the results, it is feasible to develop a clinical decision support system using the evaluated algorithms. Such system would help cardiology specialists, paediatricians and surgeons to forecast the level of risk related to a congenital heart disease surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, P.O. Box 2208, 71003 Iraklion, Crete (Greece); Lyraraki, Efrossyni [Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, University Hospital of Iraklion, 71110 Iraklion, Crete (Greece)

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10{sup −5} to 837.4 × 10{sup −5} depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10{sup −5}. The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10{sup −5} and 110.3 × 10{sup −5} for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10{sup −5}.Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by

  7. Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John; Lyraraki, Efrossyni

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10 −5 to 837.4 × 10 −5 depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10 −5 . The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10 −5 and 110.3 × 10 −5 for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10 −5 .Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by the treatment parameters, organ

  8. Risk and size estimation of debris flow caused by storm rainfall in mountain regions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHENG; Genwei

    2003-01-01

    Debris flow is a common disaster in mountain regions. The valley slope, storm rainfall and amassed sand-rock materials in a watershed may influence the types of debris flow. The bursting of debris flow is not a pure random event. Field investigations show the periodicity of its burst, but no directive evidence has been found yet. A risk definition of debris flow is proposed here based upon the accumulation and the starting conditions of loose material in channel. According to this definition, the risk of debris flow is of quasi-periodicity. A formula of risk estimation is derived. Analysis of relative factors reveals the relationship between frequency and size of debris flow. For a debris flow creek, the longer the time interval between two occurrences of debris flows is, the bigger the bursting event will be.

  9. Estimates of Present and Future Flood Risk in the Conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, O.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Johnson, K.; Fargione, J.; Morefield, P.

    2017-12-01

    Past attempts to estimate flood risk across the USA either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30m resolution model of the entire conterminous US (CONUS) with realistic flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. Socio-economic data of commensurate resolution are combined with these flood depths to estimate current and future flood risk. Future population and land-use projections from the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) are employed to indicate how flood risk might change through the 21st Century, while present-day estimates utilize the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Structure Inventory and a USEPA map of population distribution. Our data show that the total CONUS population currently exposed to serious flooding is 2.6 to 3.1 times higher than previous estimates; with nearly 41 million Americans living within the so-called 1 in 100-year (1% annual probability) floodplain, compared to only 13 million according to FEMA flood maps. Moreover, socio-economic change alone leads to significant future increases in flood exposure and risk, even before climate change impacts are accounted for. The share of the population living on the 1 in 100-year floodplain is projected to increase from 13.3% in the present-day to 15.6 - 15.8% in 2050 and 16.4 - 16.8% in 2100. The area of developed land within this floodplain, currently at 150,000 km2, is likely to increase by 37 - 72% in 2100 based on the scenarios selected. 5.5 trillion worth of assets currently lie on the 1% floodplain; we project that by 2100 this number will exceed 10 trillion. With this detailed spatial information on present-day flood risk, federal and state agencies can take appropriate action to mitigate losses. Use of USEPA population and land-use projections mean that particular attention can be

  10. Estimation of Hypertension Risk from Lifestyle Factors and Health Profile: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuoyuan Zheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Hypertension is a highly prevalent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and it can also lead to other diseases which seriously harm the human health. Screening the risks and finding a clinical model for estimating the risk of onset, maintenance, or the prognosis of hypertension are of great importance to the prevention or treatment of the disease, especially if the indicator can be derived from simple health profile. In this study, we investigate a chronic disease questionnaire data set of 6563 rural citizens in East China and find out a clinical signature that can assess the risk of hypertension easily and accurately. The signature achieves an accuracy of about 83% on the external test dataset, with an AUC of 0.91. Our study demonstrates that a combination of simple lifestyle features can sufficiently reflect the risk of hypertension onset. This finding provides potential guidance for disease prevention and control as well as development of home care and home-care technologies.

  11. Quantitative Estimation of Risks for Production Unit Based on OSHMS and Process Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyambayar, D.; Koshijima, I.; Eguchi, H.

    2017-06-01

    Three principal elements in the production field of chemical/petrochemical industry are (i) Production Units, (ii) Production Plant Personnel and (iii) Production Support System (computer system introduced for improving productivity). Each principal element has production process resilience, i.e. a capability to restrain disruptive signals occurred in and out of the production field. In each principal element, risk assessment is indispensable for the production field. In a production facility, the occupational safety and health management system (Hereafter, referred to as OSHMS) has been introduced to reduce a risk of accidents and troubles that may occur during production. In OSHMS, a risk assessment is specified to reduce a potential risk in the production facility such as a factory, and PDCA activities are required for a continual improvement of safety production environments. However, there is no clear statement to adopt the OSHMS standard into the production field. This study introduces a metric to estimate the resilience of the production field by using the resilience generated by the production plant personnel and the result of the risk assessment in the production field. A method for evaluating how OSHMS functions are systematically installed in the production field is also discussed based on the resilience of the three principal elements.

  12. Estimates of radiological risk from depleted uranium weapons in war scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durante, Marco; Pugliese, Mariagabriella

    2002-01-01

    Several weapons used during the recent conflict in Yugoslavia contain depleted uranium, including missiles and armor-piercing incendiary rounds. Health concern is related to the use of these weapons, because of the heavy-metal toxicity and radioactivity of uranium. Although chemical toxicity is considered the more important source of health risk related to uranium, radiation exposure has been allegedly related to cancers among veterans of the Balkan conflict, and uranium munitions are a possible source of contamination in the environment. Actual measurements of radioactive contamination are needed to assess the risk. In this paper, a computer simulation is proposed to estimate radiological risk related to different exposure scenarios. Dose caused by inhalation of radioactive aerosols and ground contamination induced by Tomahawk missile impact are simulated using a Gaussian plume model (HOTSPOT code). Environmental contamination and committed dose to the population resident in contaminated areas are predicted by a food-web model (RESRAD code). Small values of committed effective dose equivalent appear to be associated with missile impacts (50-y CEDE radiological risk. These computer simulations suggest that little radiological risk is associated to the use of depleted uranium weapons.

  13. Estimation of Esfarayen Farmers Risk Aversion Coefficient and Its Influencing Factors (Nonparametric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Nematollahi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Due to existence of the risk and uncertainty in agriculture, risk management is crucial for management in agriculture. Therefore the present study was designed to determine the risk aversion coefficient for Esfarayens farmers. Materials and Methods: The following approaches have been utilized to assess risk attitudes: (1 direct elicitation of utility functions, (2 experimental procedures in which individuals are presented with hypothetical questionnaires regarding risky alternatives with or without real payments and (3: Inference from observation of economic behavior. In this paper, we focused on approach (3: inference from observation of economic behavior, based on this assumption of existence of the relationship between the actual behavior of a decision maker and the behavior predicted from empirically specified models. A new non-parametric method and the QP method were used to calculate the coefficient of risk aversion. We maximized the decision maker expected utility with the E-V formulation (Freund, 1956. Ideally, in constructing a QP model, the variance-covariance matrix should be formed for each individual farmer. For this purpose, a sample of 100 farmers was selected using random sampling and their data about 14 products of years 2008- 2012 were assembled. The lowlands of Esfarayen were used since within this area, production possibilities are rather homogeneous. Results and Discussion: The results of this study showed that there was low correlation between some of the activities, which implies opportunities for income stabilization through diversification. With respect to transitory income, Ra, vary from 0.000006 to 0.000361 and the absolute coefficient of risk aversion in our sample were 0.00005. The estimated Ra values vary considerably from farm to farm. The results showed that the estimated Ra for the subsample existing of 'non-wealthy' farmers was 0.00010. The subsample with farmers in the 'wealthy' group had an

  14. Automatic and consistent registration framework for temporal pairs of mammograms in application to breast cancer risk assessment due to hormone replacement therapy (HRT)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karemore, Gopal Raghunath; Carreras, I. Arganda; Nielsen, Mads

    2009-01-01

     Purpose: Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer. However, whether changes in mammographic density due to HRT are associated with risk remains unclear. The aim of this study is to provide a framework for accurate interval change analysis in temporal pairs of mammograms of ...

  15. Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

  16. Estimating the Risk of ABO Hemolytic Disease of the Newborn in Lagos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanmu, Alani Sulaimon; Oyedeji, Olufemi Abiola; Adeyemo, Titilope Adenike; Ogbenna, Ann Abiola

    2015-01-01

    Background. ABO hemolytic disease of the newborn is the most common hemolytic consequence of maternofetal blood group incompatibility restricted mostly to non-group-O babies of group O mothers with immune anti-A or anti-B antibodies. Aim. We estimated the risk of ABO HDN with view to determining need for routine screening for ABO incompatibility between mother and fetus. Materials and Methods. Prevalence of ABO blood group phenotypes in blood donors at the donor clinic of the Lagos University Teaching Hospital and arithmetic methods were used to determine population prevalence of ABO genes. We then estimated proportion of pregnancies of group O mothers carrying a non-group-O baby and the risk that maternofetal ABO incompatibility will cause clinical ABO HDN. Results. Blood from 9138 donors was ABO typed. 54.3%, 23%, 19.4%, and 3.3% were blood groups O, A, B, and AB, respectively. Calculated gene frequencies were 0.1416, 0.1209, and 0.7375 for A, B, and O genes, respectively. It was estimated that 14.3% of deliveries will result in a blood group O woman giving birth to a child who is non-group-O. Approximately 4.3% of deliveries are likely to suffer ABO HDN with 2.7% prone to suffer from moderately severe to severe hemolysis. PMID:26491605

  17. Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Oliver E. J.; Bates, Paul D.; Smith, Andrew M.; Sampson, Christopher C.; Johnson, Kris A.; Fargione, Joseph; Morefield, Philip

    2018-03-01

    Past attempts to estimate rainfall-driven flood risk across the US either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30 m resolution model of the entire conterminous US with a 2D representation of flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard, which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. These flood depths are combined with exposure datasets of commensurate resolution to calculate current and future flood risk. Our data show that the total US population exposed to serious flooding is 2.6-3.1 times higher than previous estimates, and that nearly 41 million Americans live within the 1% annual exceedance probability floodplain (compared to only 13 million when calculated using FEMA flood maps). We find that population and GDP growth alone are expected to lead to significant future increases in exposure, and this change may be exacerbated in the future by climate change.

  18. The current contribution of molecular factors to risk estimation in neuroblastoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthold, F; Sahin, K; Hero, B; Christiansen, H; Gehring, M; Harms, D; Horz, S; Lampert, F; Schwab, M; Terpe, J

    1997-10-01

    The association of molecular characteristics with prognosis has been reported, but not their relationship with each other and their impact in the context of known clinical risk factors. In this study, data of 1249 consecutive intent-to-treat-neuroblastoma patients with more than 1 year follow-up were examined by multivariate analysis using loglinear and Cox proportional hazard regression models on a stage-related basis (stages 1-3: 600, 4S: 116, 4: 533). In a first step, risk factors were identified from 18 selected clinical variables, and risk groups defined. The second step investigated whether molecular characteristics (MYCN, LOH 1p, del 1p, CD44, N-ras, NGF-R, bcl-2, APO-1 (CD95)) contributed additional prognostic information to the model. The loglinear model demonstrated several interactions between clinical factors. By the Cox regression model, seven independent clinical risk factors were found for stages 1-3, seven for stage 4 and two for stage 4S. By subsequent introduction of all molecular variables, MYCN amplification only added significant prognostic information to the clinical factors in localised and stage 4 neuroblastoma. The models allowed the definition of risk groups for stages 1-3 patients by age (e beta = 5.09) and MYCN (e beta = 4.26), for stage 4 by MYCN (e beta = 2.78) and number of symptoms (e beta = 2.44) and for stage 4S by platelet count (e beta = 3.91) and general condition (e beta = 2.99). Molecular factors and in particular MYCN contribute significantly to risk estimation. In conjunction with clinical factors, they are powerful tools to define risk groups in neuroblastoma.

  19. Potential Risk Estimation Drowning Index for Children (PREDIC): a pilot study from Matlab, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borse, N N; Hyder, A A; Bishai, D; Baker, T; Arifeen, S E

    2011-11-01

    Childhood drowning is a major public health problem that has been neglected in many low- and middle-income countries. In Matlab, rural Bangladesh, more than 40% of child deaths aged 1-4 years are due to drowning. The main objective of this paper was to develop and evaluate a childhood drowning risk prediction index. A literature review was carried out to document risk factors identified for childhood drowning in Bangladesh. The Newacheck model for special health care needs for children was adapted and applied to construct a childhood drowning risk index called "Potential Risk Estimation Drowning Index for Children" (PREDIC). Finally, the proposed PREDIC Index was applied to childhood drowning deaths and compared with the comparison group from children living in Matlab, Bangladesh. This pilot study used t-tests and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve to analyze the results. The PREDIC index was applied to 302 drowning deaths and 624 children 0-4 years old living in Matlab. The results of t-test indicate that the drowned children had a statistically (t=-8.58, p=0.0001) significant higher mean PREDIC score (6.01) than those in comparison group (5.26). Drowning cases had a PREDIC score of 6 or more for 68% of the children however, the comparison group had 43% of the children with score of 6 or more which was statistically significant (t=-7.36, p<0.001). The area under the curve for the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was 0.662. Index score construction was scientifically plausible; and the index is relatively complete, fairly accurate, and practical. The risk index can help identify and target high risk children with drowning prevention programs. PREDIC index needs to be further tested for its accuracy, feasibility and effectiveness in drowning risk reduction in Bangladesh and other countries. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Improving risk estimates of runoff producing areas: formulating variable source areas as a bivariate process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xiaoya; Shaw, Stephen B; Marjerison, Rebecca D; Yearick, Christopher D; DeGloria, Stephen D; Walter, M Todd

    2014-05-01

    Predicting runoff producing areas and their corresponding risks of generating storm runoff is important for developing watershed management strategies to mitigate non-point source pollution. However, few methods for making these predictions have been proposed, especially operational approaches that would be useful in areas where variable source area (VSA) hydrology dominates storm runoff. The objective of this study is to develop a simple approach to estimate spatially-distributed risks of runoff production. By considering the development of overland flow as a bivariate process, we incorporated both rainfall and antecedent soil moisture conditions into a method for predicting VSAs based on the Natural Resource Conservation Service-Curve Number equation. We used base-flow immediately preceding storm events as an index of antecedent soil wetness status. Using nine sub-basins of the Upper Susquehanna River Basin, we demonstrated that our estimated runoff volumes and extent of VSAs agreed with observations. We further demonstrated a method for mapping these areas in a Geographic Information System using a Soil Topographic Index. The proposed methodology provides a new tool for watershed planners for quantifying runoff risks across watersheds, which can be used to target water quality protection strategies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Estimated drinking water fluoride exposure and risk of hip fracture: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Näsman, P; Ekstrand, J; Granath, F; Ekbom, A; Fored, C M

    2013-11-01

    The cariostatic benefit from water fluoridation is indisputable, but the knowledge of possible adverse effects on bone and fracture risk due to fluoride exposure is ambiguous. The association between long-term (chronic) drinking water fluoride exposure and hip fracture (ICD-7-9: '820' and ICD-10: 'S72.0-S72.2') was assessed in Sweden using nationwide registers. All individuals born in Sweden between January 1, 1900 and December 31, 1919, alive and living in their municipality of birth at the time of start of follow-up, were eligible for this study. Information on the study population (n = 473,277) was linked among the Swedish National In-Patient Register (IPR), the Swedish Cause of Death Register, and the Register of Population and Population Changes. Estimated individual drinking water fluoride exposure was stratified into 4 categories: very low, hip fracture. The risk estimates did not change in analyses restricted to only low-trauma osteoporotic hip fractures. Chronic fluoride exposure from drinking water does not seem to have any important effects on the risk of hip fracture, in the investigated exposure range.

  2. Quantifying and estimating the predictive accuracy for censored time-to-event data with competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Cai; Li, Liang

    2018-05-15

    This paper focuses on quantifying and estimating the predictive accuracy of prognostic models for time-to-event outcomes with competing events. We consider the time-dependent discrimination and calibration metrics, including the receiver operating characteristics curve and the Brier score, in the context of competing risks. To address censoring, we propose a unified nonparametric estimation framework for both discrimination and calibration measures, by weighting the censored subjects with the conditional probability of the event of interest given the observed data. The proposed method can be extended to time-dependent predictive accuracy metrics constructed from a general class of loss functions. We apply the methodology to a data set from the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension to evaluate the predictive accuracy of a prognostic risk score in predicting end-stage renal disease, accounting for the competing risk of pre-end-stage renal disease death, and evaluate its numerical performance in extensive simulation studies. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Risk Consideration and Cost Estimation in Construction Projects Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudius A. Peleskei

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects usually involve high investments. It is, therefore, a risky adventure for companies as actual costs of construction projects nearly always exceed the planed scenario. This is due to the various risks and the large uncertainty existing within this industry. Determination and quantification of risks and their impact on project costs within the construction industry is described to be one of the most difficult areas. This paper analyses how the cost of construction projects can be estimated using Monte Carlo Simulation. It investigates if the different cost elements in a construction project follow a specific probability distribution. The research examines the effect of correlation between different project costs on the result of the Monte Carlo Simulation. The paper finds out that Monte Carlo Simulation can be a helpful tool for risk managers and can be used for cost estimation of construction projects. The research has shown that cost distributions are positively skewed and cost elements seem to have some interdependent relationships.

  4. Estimation of risk map for cohort study of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors. 1970-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonda, Tetsuji; Satoh, Kenichi; Otani, Keiko; Sato, Yuya; Maruyama, Hirofomi; Kawakami, Hideshi; Tashiro, Satoshi; Hoshi, Masaharu; Ohtaki, Megu

    2012-01-01

    A risk map (map I) involving the effects of direct A-bomb exposure and of other confounding factors was estimated to analyze the death risk in the geographic distribution, and another risk map (map II) was also made by subtracting the direct exposure effect to see the confounder effect. The cohort was 37,382/157,327 survivors at Jan. 1, 1970, whose positional coordinates at the exposure were known, and was followed up until Dec. 31, 2009. For survival analysis, the endpoint was defined to be death (total 19,119) by regarding other 18,263 as censoring. Confounding factors were sex, age at the exposure, exposed dose and shielded condition. Maps I and II were depicted using the hazard ratio at the exposed position relative to the hypocenter, which was estimated by previously reported hazard model functions. Map I was found to be rather similar to concentric circle of the hypocenter, but to be tended a bit distorted toward northwest area. The distortion was clearer in the map II, indicating that death causes other than direct exposure existed. The confounder was thought to be the indirect exposure through the black rain, residual radiation and/or internal exposure, which awaiting future investigation. (T.T.)

  5. Relative risk estimation of Chikungunya disease in Malaysia: An analysis based on Poisson-gamma model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

    2015-05-01

    Disease mapping is a method to display the geographical distribution of disease occurrence, which generally involves the usage and interpretation of a map to show the incidence of certain diseases. Relative risk (RR) estimation is one of the most important issues in disease mapping. This paper begins by providing a brief overview of Chikungunya disease. This is followed by a review of the classical model used in disease mapping, based on the standardized morbidity ratio (SMR), which we then apply to our Chikungunya data. We then fit an extension of the classical model, which we refer to as a Poisson-Gamma model, when prior distributions for the relative risks are assumed known. Both results are displayed and compared using maps and we reveal a smoother map with fewer extremes values of estimated relative risk. The extensions of this paper will consider other methods that are relevant to overcome the drawbacks of the existing methods, in order to inform and direct government strategy for monitoring and controlling Chikungunya disease.

  6. Prospect theory based estimation of drivers' risk attitudes in route choice behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Lizhen; Zhong, Shiquan; Ma, Shoufeng; Jia, Ning

    2014-12-01

    This paper applied prospect theory (PT) to describe drivers' route choice behavior under Variable Message Sign (VMS), which presented visual traffic information to assist them to make route choice decisions. A quite rich empirical data from questionnaire and field spot was used to estimate parameters of PT. In order to make the parameters more realistic with drivers' attitudes, they were classified into different types by significant factors influencing their behaviors. Based on the travel time distribution of alternative routes and route choice results from questionnaire, the parameterized value function of each category was figured out, which represented drivers' risk attitudes and choice characteristics. The empirical verification showed that the estimates were acceptable and effective. The result showed drivers' risk attitudes and route choice characteristics could be captured by PT under real-time information shown on VMS. For practical application, once drivers' route choice characteristics and parameters were identified, their route choice behavior under different road conditions could be predicted accurately, which was the basis of traffic guidance measures formulation and implementation for targeted traffic management. Moreover, the heterogeneous risk attitudes among drivers should be considered when releasing traffic information and regulating traffic flow. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Portfolio Value at Risk Estimate for Crude Oil Markets: A Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kin Keung Lai

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In the increasingly globalized economy these days, the major crude oil markets worldwide are seeing higher level of integration, which results in higher level of dependency and transmission of risks among different markets. Thus the risk of the typical multi-asset crude oil portfolio is influenced by dynamic correlation among different assets, which has both normal and transient behaviors. This paper proposes a novel multivariate wavelet denoising based approach for estimating Portfolio Value at Risk (PVaR. The multivariate wavelet analysis is introduced to analyze the multi-scale behaviors of the correlation among different markets and the portfolio volatility behavior in the higher dimensional time scale domain. The heterogeneous data and noise behavior are addressed in the proposed multi-scale denoising based PVaR estimation algorithm, which also incorporatesthe mainstream time series to address other well known data features such as autocorrelation and volatility clustering. Empirical studies suggest that the proposed algorithm outperforms the benchmark ExponentialWeighted Moving Average (EWMA and DCC-GARCH model, in terms of conventional performance evaluation criteria for the model reliability.

  8. Estimates of lifetime infertility from three states: the behavioral risk factor surveillance system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Sara; Fussman, Chris; Bailey, Marie; Bernson, Dana; Jamieson, Denise J; Murray-Jordan, Melissa; Kissin, Dmitry M

    2015-07-01

    Knowledge of state-specific infertility is limited. The objectives of this study were to explore state-specific estimates of lifetime prevalence of having ever experienced infertility, sought treatment for infertility, types of treatments sought, and treatment outcomes. Male and female adult residents aged 18-50 years from three states involved in the States Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technology Collaborative (Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan) were asked state-added infertility questions as part of the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a state-based, health-related telephone survey. Analysis involved estimation of lifetime prevalence of infertility. The estimated lifetime prevalence of infertility among 1,285 adults in Florida, 1,302 in Massachusetts, and 3,360 in Michigan was 9.7%, 6.0%, and 4.2%, respectively. Among 736 adults in Florida, 1,246 in Massachusetts, and 2,742 in Michigan that have ever tried to get pregnant, the lifetime infertility prevalence was 25.3% in Florida, 9.9% in Massachusetts, and 5.8% in Michigan. Among those with a history of infertility, over half sought treatment (60.7% in Florida, 70.6% in Massachusetts, and 51.6% in Michigan), the most common being non-assisted reproductive technology fertility treatments (61.3% in Florida, 66.0% in Massachusetts, and 75.9% in Michigan). State-specific estimates of lifetime infertility prevalence in Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan varied. Variations across states are difficult to interpret, as they likely reflect both true differences in prevalence and differences in data collection questionnaires. State-specific estimates are needed for the prevention, detection, and management of infertility, but estimates should be based on a common set of questions appropriate for these goals.

  9. Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part II. Application to patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Toncheva, Greta; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Frush, Donald P. [Medical Physics Graduate Program, Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Department of Radiology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States); Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Department of Radiology, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Department of Physics, and Department of Biomedical Engineering, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States); Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Department of Radiology, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States); Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Department of Radiology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 and Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599 (United States); Department of Radiology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States); Duke Radiation Dosimetry Laboratory, Department of Radiology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States); Duke Radiation Dosimetry Laboratory, Department of Radiology, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States); Division of Pediatric Radiology, Department of Radiology, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States)

    2011-01-15

    Purpose: Current methods for estimating and reporting radiation dose from CT examinations are largely patient-generic; the body size and hence dose variation from patient to patient is not reflected. Furthermore, the current protocol designs rely on dose as a surrogate for the risk of cancer incidence, neglecting the strong dependence of risk on age and gender. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for estimating patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations. Methods: The study included two patients (a 5-week-old female patient and a 12-year-old male patient), who underwent 64-slice CT examinations (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis at our institution in 2006. For each patient, a nonuniform rational B-spine (NURBS) based full-body computer model was created based on the patient's clinical CT data. Large organs and structures inside the image volume were individually segmented and modeled. Other organs were created by transforming an existing adult male or female full-body computer model (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. A Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for dose simulation on the LightSpeed VCT scanner was used to estimate patient-specific organ dose, from which effective dose and risks of cancer incidence were derived. Patient-specific organ dose and effective dose were compared with patient-generic CT dose quantities in current clinical use: the volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI{sub vol}) and the effective dose derived from the dose-length product (DLP). Results: The effective dose for the CT examination of the newborn patient (5.7 mSv) was higher but comparable to that for the CT examination of the teenager patient (4.9 mSv) due to the size-based clinical CT protocols at our institution, which employ lower scan techniques for smaller

  10. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  11. The influence of climate change on flood risks in France - first estimates and uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumas, P.; Hallegatte, S.; Quintana-Seguì, P.; Martin, E.

    2013-03-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to project the possible evolution of river flood damages due to climate change, and applies it to mainland France. Its main contributions are (i) to demonstrate a methodology to investigate the full causal chain from global climate change to local economic flood losses; (ii) to show that future flood losses may change in a very significant manner over France; (iii) to show that a very large uncertainty arises from the climate downscaling technique, since two techniques with comparable skills at reproducing reference river flows give very different estimates of future flows, and thus of future local losses. The main conclusion is thus that estimating future flood losses is still out of reach, especially at local scale, but that future national-scale losses may change significantly over this century, requiring policy changes in terms of risk management and land-use planning.

  12. Stability basin estimates fall risk from observed kinematics, demonstrated on the Sit-to-Stand task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shia, Victor; Moore, Talia Yuki; Holmes, Patrick; Bajcsy, Ruzena; Vasudevan, Ram

    2018-04-27

    The ability to quantitatively measure stability is essential to ensuring the safety of locomoting systems. While the response to perturbation directly reflects the stability of a motion, this experimental method puts human subjects at risk. Unfortunately, existing indirect methods for estimating stability from unperturbed motion have been shown to have limited predictive power. This paper leverages recent advances in dynamical systems theory to accurately estimate the stability of human motion without requiring perturbation. This approach relies on kinematic observations of a nominal Sit-to-Stand motion to construct an individual-specific dynamic model, input bounds, and feedback control that are then used to compute the set of perturbations from which the model can recover. This set, referred to as the stability basin, was computed for 14 individuals, and was able to successfully differentiate between less and more stable Sit-to-Stand strategies for each individual with greater accuracy than existing methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

  14. Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Congdon

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care areas.

  15. The Additive Risk Model for Estimation of Effect of Haplotype Match in BMT Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Martinussen, T; Zhang, MJ

    2011-01-01

    leads to a missing data problem. We show how Aalen's additive risk model can be applied in this setting with the benefit that the time-varying haplomatch effect can be easily studied. This problem has not been considered before, and the standard approach where one would use the expected-maximization (EM......) algorithm cannot be applied for this model because the likelihood is hard to evaluate without additional assumptions. We suggest an approach based on multivariate estimating equations that are solved using a recursive structure. This approach leads to an estimator where the large sample properties can...... be developed using product-integration theory. Small sample properties are investigated using simulations in a setting that mimics the motivating haplomatch problem....

  16. Spatially interpolated disease prevalence estimation using collateral indicators of morbidity and ecological risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-10-14

    This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas.

  17. Model Selection and Risk Estimation with Applications to Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Frederik Vissing

    eective computational tools for estimating unknown structures in dynamical systems, such as gene regulatory networks, which may be used to predict downstream eects of interventions in the system. A recommended algorithm based on the computational tools is presented and thoroughly tested in various......Broadly speaking, this thesis is devoted to model selection applied to ordinary dierential equations and risk estimation under model selection. A model selection framework was developed for modelling time course data by ordinary dierential equations. The framework is accompanied by the R software...... package, episode. This package incorporates a collection of sparsity inducing penalties into two types of loss functions: a squared loss function relying on numerically solving the equations and an approximate loss function based on inverse collocation methods. The goal of this framework is to provide...

  18. Radiobiological risk estimates of adverse events and secondary cancer for proton and photon radiation therapy of pediatric medulloblastoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brodin, N. Patrik (Radiation Medicine Research Center, Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark); Niels Bohr Inst., Faculty of Sciences, Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark)), e-mail: brodin.patrik@gmail.com; Munck af Rosenschoeld, Per; Aznar, Marianne C.; Vogelius, Ivan R. (Radiation Medicine Research Center, Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark)); Kiil-Berthelsen, Anne (Radiation Medicine Research Center, Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark); Dept. of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine, Centre of Diagnostic Investigations, Rigshospitalet, Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark)); Nilsson, Per; Bjoerk-Eriksson, Thomas (Dept. of Oncology, Skaane Univ. Hospital and Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)); Lannering, Birgitta (Dept. of Paediatric Oncology, The Queen Silvia Children' s Hospital, Gothenburg (Sweden))

    2011-08-15

    Introduction. The aim of this model study was to estimate and compare the risk of radiation-induced adverse late effects in pediatric patients with medulloblastoma (MB) treated with either three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D CRT), inversely-optimized arc therapy (RapidArc (RA)) or spot-scanned intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT). The aim was also to find dose-volume toxicity parameters relevant to children undergoing RT to be used in the inverse planning of RA and IMPT, and to use in the risk estimations. Material and methods. Treatment plans were created for all three techniques on 10 pediatric patients that have been treated with craniospinal irradiation (CSI) at our institution in 2007-2009. Plans were generated for two prescription CSI doses, 23.4 Gy and 36 Gy. Risk estimates were based on childhood cancer survivor data when available and secondary cancer (SC) risks were estimated as a function of age at exposure and attained age according to the organ-equivalent dose (OED) concept. Results. Estimates of SC risk was higher for the RA plans and differentiable from the estimates for 3D CRT at attained ages above 40 years. The risk of developing heart failure, hearing loss, hypothyroidism and xerostomia was highest for the 3D CRT plans. The risks of all adverse effects were estimated as lowest for the IMPT plans, even when including secondary neutron (SN) irradiation with high values of the neutron radiation weighting factors (WR{sub neutron}). Conclusions. When comparing RA and 3D CRT treatment for pediatric MB it is a matter of comparing higher SC risk against higher risks of non-cancer adverse events. Considering time until onset of the different complications is necessary to fully assess patient benefit in such a comparison. The IMPT plans, including SN dose contribution, compared favorably to the photon techniques in terms of all radiobiological risk estimates

  19. Radiobiological risk estimates of adverse events and secondary cancer for proton and photon radiation therapy of pediatric medulloblastoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brodin, N. Patrik; Munck af Rosenschoeld, Per; Aznar, Marianne C.; Vogelius, Ivan R.; Kiil-Berthelsen, Anne; Nilsson, Per; Bjoerk-Eriksson, Thomas; Lannering, Birgitta

    2011-01-01

    Introduction. The aim of this model study was to estimate and compare the risk of radiation-induced adverse late effects in pediatric patients with medulloblastoma (MB) treated with either three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D CRT), inversely-optimized arc therapy (RapidArc (RA)) or spot-scanned intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT). The aim was also to find dose-volume toxicity parameters relevant to children undergoing RT to be used in the inverse planning of RA and IMPT, and to use in the risk estimations. Material and methods. Treatment plans were created for all three techniques on 10 pediatric patients that have been treated with craniospinal irradiation (CSI) at our institution in 2007-2009. Plans were generated for two prescription CSI doses, 23.4 Gy and 36 Gy. Risk estimates were based on childhood cancer survivor data when available and secondary cancer (SC) risks were estimated as a function of age at exposure and attained age according to the organ-equivalent dose (OED) concept. Results. Estimates of SC risk was higher for the RA plans and differentiable from the estimates for 3D CRT at attained ages above 40 years. The risk of developing heart failure, hearing loss, hypothyroidism and xerostomia was highest for the 3D CRT plans. The risks of all adverse effects were estimated as lowest for the IMPT plans, even when including secondary neutron (SN) irradiation with high values of the neutron radiation weighting factors (WR neutron ). Conclusions. When comparing RA and 3D CRT treatment for pediatric MB it is a matter of comparing higher SC risk against higher risks of non-cancer adverse events. Considering time until onset of the different complications is necessary to fully assess patient benefit in such a comparison. The IMPT plans, including SN dose contribution, compared favorably to the photon techniques in terms of all radiobiological risk estimates

  20. A Comparison Study on the Integrated Risk Estimation for Various Power Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Woon; Ha, J. J.; Kim, S. H.; Jeong, J. T.; Min, K. R.; Kim, K. Y.

    2007-06-01

    The objective of this study is to establish a system for the comparative analysis of the environmental impacts, risks, health effects, and social acceptance for various electricity generation systems and a computational framework and necessary databases. In this study, the second phase of the nuclear research and development program(2002-2004), the methodologies for the comparative analysis of the environmental impacts, risks, and health effects for various electricity generation systems was investigated and applied to reference power plants. The life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology as a comparative analysis tool for the environmental impacts was adopted and applied to fossil-fueled and nuclear power plants. The scope of the analysis considered in this study are the construction, operation/fuel cycle), and demolition of each power generation system. In the risk analysis part, the empirical and analytical methods were adopted and applied to fossil-fueled and nuclear power plants. In the empirical risk assessment part, we collected historical experiences of worldwide energy-related accidents with fatalities over the last 30 years. The scope of the analysis considered in this study are the construction, operation (fuel cycle), and demolition stages of each power generation systems. The risks for the case of nuclear power plants which have potential releases of radioactive materials were estimated In a probabilistic way (PSA) by considering the occurrence of severe accidents and compared with the risks of other electricity generation systems. The health effects testimated as external cost) resulting from the operation of nuclear, coal, and hydro power systems were estimated and compared by using the program developed by the IAEA. Regarding a comprehensive comparison of the various power systems, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is introduced to aggregate the diverse information under conflicting decision criteria. Social aspect is treated by a web

  1. The estimation ecological risk for ground ecosystems in case of nuclear power plant failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kremlenkov, D.Yu.; Kremlenkov, M.Yu.

    2004-01-01

    The results of probabilistic estimation of the damage for forest and agricultural ecosystems connected with cesium-137 and strontium-90 release during hypothetical accidents at NPPs are analyzed. The concept of radioecological risk including application of the models for radioactivity transport in atmosphere and calculation of of absorbed doses in ecosystem critical groups is used for the analysis. It is proved that the probable ecological damage expressed in terms of ecosystem destruction area depends on the scale of accidental radioisotope releases, meteorological conditions and radiation resistance of critical groups in plant associations. The conclusion is made that ecological risks expressed in the form of probable area of ecosystem destruction in the zone where dose loads lay in the range from minimal ecologically significant limit up to ecologically significant limit amount to 4-9% for conifers contaminated with cesium-137 and to 2-4% for agricultural crops contaminated with strontium-90 [ru

  2. Overall risk estimation for nonreactor nuclear facilities and implementation of safety goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyo S.; Bradley, R.F.

    1992-01-01

    A typical safety analysis report (SAR) contains estimated frequencies and consequences of various design basis accident (DBA) analyses. However, the results are organized and presented in such a way that they are not conducive for summing up with mathematical rigor to give total or overall risk. This paper describes a simple protocol and mathematical formalism to derive overall risk indicators. These indicators provide some insight into the capability of confinement barriers with characteristics of source terms, and provide comparison to the Safety Goals. The protocol makes maximum use of the results of DBA analyses typically available from an SAR. The mathematical formalism is based on the cumulative complementary distribution function (CCDF) or exceedance probability of radioactivity release fraction and individual radiation dose. An example case analysis is presented to illustrate how to use the proposed protocol and mathematical formalism. A discussion of the result is also presented in terms of confinement characteristic and compliance to Safety Goals

  3. Interactions of Lipid Genetic Risk Scores with Estimates of Metabolic Health in a Danish Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Johanne M; Allin, Kristine H; Sandholt, Camilla H

    2015-01-01

    Background—There are several well-established lifestyle factors influencing dyslipidemia and currently; 157 genetic susceptibility loci have been reported to be associated with serum lipid levels at genome-wide statistical significance. However, the interplay between lifestyle risk factors...... and these susceptibility loci has not been fully elucidated. We tested whether genetic risk scores (GRS) of lipid-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms associate with fasting serum lipid traits and whether the effects are modulated by lifestyle factors or estimates of metabolic health. Methods and Results—The single......-cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, or triglyceride, 4 weighted GRS were constructed. In a cross-sectional design, we investigated whether the effect of these weighted GRSs on lipid levels were modulated by diet, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and smoking or the individual metabolic health...

  4. Estimation of risk from environmental exposure to radon in Tehri Garhwal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramola, R.C.; Rawat, R.B.S.; Kandari, M.S.

    1995-01-01

    Some preliminary results from a radon survey carried out in mud houses in Tehri Garhwal are reported. The radon values recorded were found to be higher than the recommended value under normal ventilation conditions. The estimated total life time risk and attributed loss of life expectancy are found to be 0.58 per Bq/m 3 and 15 years, respectively. The abnormal values recorded in mud houses in Tehri Garhwal are of sufficient importance for initiating further investigations in this area. (author)

  5. Impact of a multifactorial treatment programme on clinical outcomes and cardiovascular risk estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Safai, Narges; Carstensen, Bendix; Vestergaard, Henrik

    2018-01-01

    ), blood pressure (BP) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol as well as proportion reaching treatment targets. Our secondary outcome was to investigate changes in antidiabetic, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment, together with the impact on estimated CVD risk. Linear mixed model....... SETTING: Tertiary diabetes centre in Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with type 2 diabetes (n=4299) referred to a programme with focus on treatment of hyperglycaemia, hypertension and dyslipidaemia between 1 January 2001 and 1 April 2016. OUTCOMES: Primary outcomes were changes in haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c...

  6. Possibility of use of plat test systems for estimation of degree risk at radiation influence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gogebashvili, M.E.; Ivanishvili, N.I.

    2010-01-01

    Full text : Now one of the major problems of radiobiology is studying of degree risks at influence of small doses of an ionizing radiation. It is known, that not tumoral forms of the remote pathology are not stochastic, threshold, reactions of an organism to beam influence, frequency and weight depend on a dose, while carcinogenic and genetic effects (stochastic reactions) - frequency raises with dose increase. Last years the general hypothesis for definition of the raised risk in the irradiated populations, based on the theoretical analysis of extensive researches of various biological objects and epidemiological data, assumes existence of difficult parities between a dose of an irradiation and frequency of investigated effect. In this aspect the special importance is got by biological models with which help reception of quantitative parameters of influence of modifying factors for creation of more exact systems of monitoring of the remote radiobiological effects is possible. One of such systems is reciprocal grows reaction of stamen threads of plant tradescantia. At the heart of action of the given biomodel that growth tradescantia threads occurs from one initial cell is, and level of its radiating damage is shown in number of the subsequent cellular generation during the postradiating period. For an estimation of adequacy of the given model we had been chose two kinds tradescantia - Tradescantia virginiana L. and Tradescantia rosea Vent. It is notes, that at identical quantity of chromosomes their volume interface nucleus composable at Tradescantia virginiana L. 63.7 μ 3 , and at T.rosea Vent. - 38.5 μ 3 . Thus at interpretation of data it was possible to estimate them with the target theory. In work two basic criteria of an estimation of radiating damage - quantity of viable pollen threads and quantity of viable cells in each of threads have been used. The received results have shown strict correlation of reciprocal postradiating effects between used variants

  7. Consistent high clinical pregnancy rates and low ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome rates in high-risk patients after GnRH agonist triggering and modified luteal support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iliodromiti, Stamatina; Blockeel, Christophe; Tremellen, Kelton P

    2013-01-01

    Are clinical pregnancy rates satisfactory and the incidence of OHSS low after GnRH agonist trigger and modified intensive luteal support in patients with a high risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS)?......Are clinical pregnancy rates satisfactory and the incidence of OHSS low after GnRH agonist trigger and modified intensive luteal support in patients with a high risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS)?...

  8. [Estimation of the excess of lung cancer mortality risk associated to environmental tobacco smoke exposure of hospitality workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, M José; Nebot, Manel; Juárez, Olga; Ariza, Carles; Salles, Joan; Serrahima, Eulàlia

    2006-01-14

    To estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with environmental tobacco (ETS) smoke exposure among hospitality workers. The estimation was done using objective measures in several hospitality settings in Barcelona. Vapour phase nicotine was measured in several hospitality settings. These measurements were used to estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure for a 40 year working life, using the formula developed by Repace and Lowrey. Excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure was higher than 145 deaths per 100,000 workers in all places studied, except for cafeterias in hospitals, where excess lung cancer mortality risk was 22 per 100,000. In discoteques, for comparison, excess lung cancer mortality risk is 1,733 deaths per 100,000 workers. Hospitality workers are exposed to ETS levels related to a very high excess lung cancer mortality risk. These data confirm that ETS control measures are needed to protect hospital workers.

  9. Risk estimation and decision making: the health effects on populations of exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1982-01-01

    Presented is a background for an understanding of the potential health effects in populations exposed to low-level radiation. Discussed is the knowledge about the health effects of low-level radiation. Comments on how the risks of radiation-induced cancer and genetically-related ill-health in man may be estimated, the sources of the scientific and epidemiological data, the dose-response models used, and the uncertainties which limit precise estimates of excess risks from radiation. Also discussed are the implications of numerical risk estimation for radiation protection and decision-making for public health policy

  10. Measurement Error Affects Risk Estimates for Recruitment to the Hudson River Stock of Striped Bass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis J. Dunning

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined the consequences of ignoring the distinction between measurement error and natural variability in an assessment of risk to the Hudson River stock of striped bass posed by entrainment at the Bowline Point, Indian Point, and Roseton power plants. Risk was defined as the probability that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more, relative to the equilibrium value, at least once during the time periods examined (1, 5, 10, and 15 years. Measurement error, estimated using two abundance indices from independent beach seine surveys conducted on the Hudson River, accounted for 50% of the variability in one index and 56% of the variability in the other. If a measurement error of 50% was ignored and all of the variability in abundance was attributed to natural causes, the risk that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more after 15 years was 0.308 at the current level of entrainment mortality (11%. However, the risk decreased almost tenfold (0.032 if a measurement error of 50% was considered. The change in risk attributable to decreasing the entrainment mortality rate from 11 to 0% was very small (0.009 and similar in magnitude to the change in risk associated with an action proposed in Amendment #5 to the Interstate Fishery Management Plan for Atlantic striped bass (0.006— an increase in the instantaneous fishing mortality rate from 0.33 to 0.4. The proposed increase in fishing mortality was not considered an adverse environmental impact, which suggests that potentially costly efforts to reduce entrainment mortality on the Hudson River stock of striped bass are not warranted.

  11. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen

    2016-07-01

    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction

  12. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information

  13. Developing an objective evaluation method to estimate diabetes risk in community-based settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenya, Sonjia; He, Qing; Fullilove, Robert; Kotler, Donald P

    2011-05-01

    Exercise interventions often aim to affect abdominal obesity and glucose tolerance, two significant risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Because of limited financial and clinical resources in community and university-based environments, intervention effects are often measured with interviews or questionnaires and correlated with weight loss or body fat indicated by body bioimpedence analysis (BIA). However, self-reported assessments are subject to high levels of bias and low levels of reliability. Because obesity and body fat are correlated with diabetes at different levels in various ethnic groups, data reflecting changes in weight or fat do not necessarily indicate changes in diabetes risk. To determine how exercise interventions affect diabetes risk in community and university-based settings, improved evaluation methods are warranted. We compared a noninvasive, objective measurement technique--regional BIA--with whole-body BIA for its ability to assess abdominal obesity and predict glucose tolerance in 39 women. To determine regional BIA's utility in predicting glucose, we tested the association between the regional BIA method and blood glucose levels. Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat area were significantly correlated (r = 0.554, P < 0.003) with fasting glucose. When waist circumference and family history of diabetes were added to abdominal fat in multiple regression models, the association with glucose increased further (r = 0.701, P < 0.001). Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat may predict fasting glucose better than whole-body BIA as well as provide an objective assessment of changes in diabetes risk achieved through physical activity interventions in community settings.

  14. Estimates of cancer deaths attributable to behavioural risk factors in Italy, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battisti, Francesca; Carreras, Giulia; Grassi, Tommaso; Chellini, Elisabetta; Gorini, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    "Non-communicable diseases cause more than 80% of deaths in europe and, among these, 20% are caused by cancer. Modifiable lifestyle factors considered in the italian national programme "Guadagnare salute" (Gaining health), such as tobacco smoking, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, overweight, and excessive alcohol use, are amongst the major causes of cancer deaths. The aims of this study was to estimate the number of deaths attributable to lifestyle factors for italy and for italian regions in 2013 and to describe its variation in relation to the regional prevalence of risk factors exposure. For Italy and for each italian region, deaths attributable to lifestyle factors were estimated using the methodology of the Global Burden of disease (GBd) study. italian mortality data of 2013 and risks attributable to these lifestyle factors for each cancer site for italy from the GBd study were used. Prevalence of exposure to lifestyles in Italy and in each Italian Region was collected for the period 2008-2013. In 2013, at least 66,605 cancer deaths in italy were attributable to lifestyle factors, accounting for 37.9% of all cancer deaths: 34.1% of cancer deaths in men and 9.0% in women were attributable to smoking; in men and women, respectively, 3.3% and 2.8% were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption; 5.3 % and 6.7% to overweight; 10.1% and 7.1% to dietary risk factors; 1.9% and 4.2% to physical inactivity. A moderate variability of percentage of deaths attributable to modifi able lifestyle factors by region was also detected due to different prevalence values of exposure to lifestyles occurred in last decades. At least 45,000 cancer deaths in men and 21,000 in women occurred in 2013 were attributable to modifi able risk factors, whose prevalence varied by region and which could be averted through the implementation of primary prevention interventions."

  15. Impact of Hydrogeological Uncertainty on Estimation of Environmental Risks Posed by Hydrocarbon Transportation Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciriello, V.; Lauriola, I.; Bonvicini, S.; Cozzani, V.; Di Federico, V.; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.

    2017-11-01

    Ubiquitous hydrogeological uncertainty undermines the veracity of quantitative predictions of soil and groundwater contamination due to accidental hydrocarbon spills from onshore pipelines. Such predictions, therefore, must be accompanied by quantification of predictive uncertainty, especially when they are used for environmental risk assessment. We quantify the impact of parametric uncertainty on quantitative forecasting of temporal evolution of two key risk indices, volumes of unsaturated and saturated soil contaminated by a surface spill of light nonaqueous-phase liquids. This is accomplished by treating the relevant uncertain parameters as random variables and deploying two alternative probabilistic models to estimate their effect on predictive uncertainty. A physics-based model is solved with a stochastic collocation method and is supplemented by a global sensitivity analysis. A second model represents the quantities of interest as polynomials of random inputs and has a virtually negligible computational cost, which enables one to explore any number of risk-related contamination scenarios. For a typical oil-spill scenario, our method can be used to identify key flow and transport parameters affecting the risk indices, to elucidate texture-dependent behavior of different soils, and to evaluate, with a degree of confidence specified by the decision-maker, the extent of contamination and the correspondent remediation costs.

  16. Estimating wildfire risk on a Mojave Desert landscape using remote sensing and field sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Linn, Peter F.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; DeFalco, Lesley A.; Inman, Richard D.; Abella, Scott R.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting wildfires that affect broad landscapes is important for allocating suppression resources and guiding land management. Wildfire prediction in the south-western United States is of specific concern because of the increasing prevalence and severe effects of fire on desert shrublands and the current lack of accurate fire prediction tools. We developed a fire