risk characterization studies: Topics by WorldWideScience.org

Sample records for risk characterization studies

A Risk Management Framework to Characterize Black Swan Risks: A Case Study of Lightning Effects on Insensitive High Explosives

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders, Gary A.

Effective and efficient risk management processes include the use of high fidelity modeling and simulation during the concept exploration phase as part of the technology and risk assessment activities, with testing and evaluation tasks occurring in later design development phases. However, some safety requirements and design architectures may be dominated by the low probability/high consequence "Black Swan" vulnerabilities that require very early testing to characterize and efficiently mitigate. Failure to address these unique risks has led to catastrophic systems failures including the space shuttle Challenger, Deepwater Horizon, Fukushima nuclear reactor, and Katrina dike failures. Discovering and addressing these risks later in the design and development process can be very costly or even lead to project cancellation. This paper examines the need for risk management process adoption of early hazard phenomenology testing to inform the technical risk assessment, requirements definition and conceptual design. A case study of the lightning design vulnerability of the insensitive high explosives being used in construction, mining, demolition, and defense industries will be presented to examine the impact of this vulnerability testing during the concept exploration phase of the design effort. While these insensitive high explosives are far less sensitive to accidental initiation by fire, impact, friction or even electrical stimuli, their full range of sensitivities have not been characterized and ensuring safe engineering design and operations during events such as lightning storms requires vulnerability testing during the risk assessment phase.
Scientific reporting is suboptimal for aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies: a review of published articles based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies statement.

Science.gov (United States)

Iglesias, Adriana I; Mihaescu, Raluca; Ioannidis, John P A; Khoury, Muin J; Little, Julian; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

2014-05-01

Our main objective was to raise awareness of the areas that need improvements in the reporting of genetic risk prediction articles for future publications, based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS) statement. We evaluated studies that developed or validated a prediction model based on multiple DNA variants, using empirical data, and were published in 2010. A data extraction form based on the 25 items of the GRIPS statement was created and piloted. Forty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. Overall, more than half of the evaluated items (34 of 62) were reported in at least 85% of included articles. Seventy-seven percentage of the articles were identified as genetic risk prediction studies through title assessment, but only 31% used the keywords recommended by GRIPS in the title or abstract. Seventy-four percentage mentioned which allele was the risk variant. Overall, only 10% of the articles reported all essential items needed to perform external validation of the risk model. Completeness of reporting in genetic risk prediction studies is adequate for general elements of study design but is suboptimal for several aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies such as description of the model construction. Improvements in the transparency of reporting of these aspects would facilitate the identification, replication, and application of genetic risk prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Health risk characterization of chlorpyrifos using epidemiological dose-response data and probabilistic techniques: a case study with rice farmers in Vietnam.

Science.gov (United States)

Phung, Dung Tri; Connell, Des; Yu, Qiming; Chu, Cordia

2013-09-01

Various methods for risk characterization have been developed using probabilistic approaches. Data on Vietnamese farmers are available for the comparison of outcomes for risk characterization using different probabilistic methods. This article addresses the health risk characterization of chlorpyrifos using epidemiological dose-response data and probabilistic techniques obtained from a case study with rice farmers in Vietnam. Urine samples were collected from farmers and analyzed for trichloropyridinol (TCP), which was converted into absorbed daily dose of chlorpyrifos. Adverse health response doses due to chlorpyrifos exposure were collected from epidemiological studies to develop dose-adverse health response relationships. The health risk of chlorpyrifos was quantified using hazard quotient (HQ), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), and overall risk probability (ORP) methods. With baseline (prior to pesticide spraying) and lifetime exposure levels (over a lifetime of pesticide spraying events), the HQ ranged from 0.06 to 7.1. The MCS method indicated less than 0.05% of the population would be affected while the ORP method indicated that less than 1.5% of the population would be adversely affected. With postapplication exposure levels, the HQ ranged from 1 to 32.5. The risk calculated by the MCS method was that 29% of the population would be affected, and the risk calculated by ORP method was 33%. The MCS and ORP methods have advantages in risk characterization due to use of the full distribution of data exposure as well as dose response, whereas HQ methods only used the exposure data distribution. These evaluations indicated that single-event spraying is likely to have adverse effects on Vietnamese rice farmers. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
The many faces of fear: a synthesis of the methodological variation in characterizing predation risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Moll, Remington J; Redilla, Kyle M; Mudumba, Tutilo; Muneza, Arthur B; Gray, Steven M; Abade, Leandro; Hayward, Matt W; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Montgomery, Robert A

2017-07-01

Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple
Tank Waste Remediation System Characterization Project Programmatic Risk Management Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baide, D.G.; Webster, T.L.

1995-12-01

The TWRS Characterization Project has developed a process and plan in order to identify, manage and control the risks associated with tank waste characterization activities. The result of implementing this process is a defined list of programmatic risks (i.e. a risk management list) that are used by the Project as management tool. This concept of risk management process is a commonly used systems engineering approach which is being applied to all TWRS program and project elements. The Characterization Project risk management plan and list are subset of the overall TWRS risk management plan and list
Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zoe M. King

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of
Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

King, Zoe M; Henshel, Diane S; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

2018-01-01

Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual's intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing malicious
Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

King, Zoe M.; Henshel, Diane S.; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G.; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

2018-01-01

Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing
Stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization of uncertainty and variability in risk assessments: A case study of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil at a petroleum-contaminated site in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Yan; Wang, Zesen; Wen, Jingya; Li, Yu

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Deal with environmental quality guidelines absence in risk characterization. • Quantitative represention of uncertainty from environmental quality guidelines. • Quantitative represention of variability from contaminant exposure concentrations. • Establishment of stochastic-fuzzy environmental risk characterization approach framework. - Abstract: Better decisions are made using risk assessment models when uncertainty and variability are explicitly acknowledged. Uncertainty caused by a lack of uniform and scientifically supported environmental quality guidelines and variability in the degree of exposure of environmental systems to contaminants are here incorporated in a stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization (SFERC) approach. The approach is based on quotient probability distribution and environmental risk level fuzzy membership function methods. The SFERC framework was used to characterize the environmental risks posed by 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil at a typical petroleum-contaminated site in China. This relied on integrating data from the literature and field and laboratory experiments. The environmental risk levels posed by the PAHs under four risk scenarios were determined using the SFERC approach, using “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental quality guidelines under “loose” and “strict” strictness parameters. The results showed that environmental risks posed by PAHs in soil are primarily caused by oil exploitation, traffic emissions, and coal combustion. The SFERC approach is an effective tool for characterizing uncertainty and variability in environmental risk assessments and for managing contaminated sites.
Stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization of uncertainty and variability in risk assessments: A case study of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil at a petroleum-contaminated site in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Yan [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environment Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Wang, Zesen [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Wen, Jingya [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Institute of Hydropower and Environment Research, Beijing 100012 (China); Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China)

2016-10-05

Highlights: • Deal with environmental quality guidelines absence in risk characterization. • Quantitative represention of uncertainty from environmental quality guidelines. • Quantitative represention of variability from contaminant exposure concentrations. • Establishment of stochastic-fuzzy environmental risk characterization approach framework. - Abstract: Better decisions are made using risk assessment models when uncertainty and variability are explicitly acknowledged. Uncertainty caused by a lack of uniform and scientifically supported environmental quality guidelines and variability in the degree of exposure of environmental systems to contaminants are here incorporated in a stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization (SFERC) approach. The approach is based on quotient probability distribution and environmental risk level fuzzy membership function methods. The SFERC framework was used to characterize the environmental risks posed by 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil at a typical petroleum-contaminated site in China. This relied on integrating data from the literature and field and laboratory experiments. The environmental risk levels posed by the PAHs under four risk scenarios were determined using the SFERC approach, using “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental quality guidelines under “loose” and “strict” strictness parameters. The results showed that environmental risks posed by PAHs in soil are primarily caused by oil exploitation, traffic emissions, and coal combustion. The SFERC approach is an effective tool for characterizing uncertainty and variability in environmental risk assessments and for managing contaminated sites.
Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

Science.gov (United States)

Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.
Impact of ground motion characterization on conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sewell, R.T.; Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K.

1996-07-01

This study evaluates the impact, on estimates of seismic risk and its uncertainty, of alternative methods in treatment and characterization of earthquake ground motions. The objective of this study is to delineate specific procedures and characterizations that may lead to less biased and more precise seismic risk results. This report focuses on sources of conservatism and variability in risk that may be introduced through the analytical processes and ground-motion descriptions which are commonly implemented at the interface of seismic hazard and fragility assessments. In particular, implication of the common practice of using a single, composite spectral shape to characterize motions of different magnitudes is investigated. Also, the impact of parameterization of ground motion on fragility and hazard assessments is shown. Examination of these results demonstrates the following. (1) There exists significant conservatism in the review spectra (usually, spectra characteristic of western U.S. earthquakes) that have been used in conducting past seismic risk assessments and seismic margin assessments for eastern U.S. nuclear power plants. (2) There is a strong dependence of seismic fragility on earthquake magnitude when PGA is used as the ground-motion characterization. When, however, magnitude-dependent spectra are anchored to a common measure of elastic spectral acceleration averaged over the appropriate frequency range, seismic fragility shows no important nor consistent dependence on either magnitude or strong-motion duration. Use of inelastic spectral acceleration (at the proper frequency) as the ground spectrum anchor demonstrates a very similar result. This study concludes that a single, composite-magnitude spectrum can generally be used to characterize ground motion for fragility assessment without introducing significant bias or uncertainty in seismic risk estimates
Impact of ground motion characterization on conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sewell, R.T.; Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K.

1996-07-01

This study evaluates the impact, on estimates of seismic risk and its uncertainty, of alternative methods in treatment and characterization of earthquake ground motions. The objective of this study is to delineate specific procedures and characterizations that may lead to less biased and more precise seismic risk results. This report focuses on sources of conservatism and variability in risk that may be introduced through the analytical processes and ground-motion descriptions which are commonly implemented at the interface of seismic hazard and fragility assessments. In particular, implication of the common practice of using a single, composite spectral shape to characterize motions of different magnitudes is investigated. Also, the impact of parameterization of ground motion on fragility and hazard assessments is shown. Examination of these results demonstrates the following. (1) There exists significant conservatism in the review spectra (usually, spectra characteristic of western U.S. earthquakes) that have been used in conducting past seismic risk assessments and seismic margin assessments for eastern U.S. nuclear power plants. (2) There is a strong dependence of seismic fragility on earthquake magnitude when PGA is used as the ground-motion characterization. When, however, magnitude-dependent spectra are anchored to a common measure of elastic spectral acceleration averaged over the appropriate frequency range, seismic fragility shows no important nor consistent dependence on either magnitude or strong-motion duration. Use of inelastic spectral acceleration (at the proper frequency) as the ground spectrum anchor demonstrates a very similar result. This study concludes that a single, composite-magnitude spectrum can generally be used to characterize ground motion for fragility assessment without introducing significant bias or uncertainty in seismic risk estimates.
Probabilistic environmental risk characterization of pharmaceuticals in sewage treatment plant discharges.

Science.gov (United States)

Christensen, Anne Munch; Markussen, Bo; Baun, Anders; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

2009-10-01

The occurrence of pharmaceuticals in different water bodies and the findings of effects on aquatic organisms in ecotoxicity tests have raised concerns about environmental risks of pharmaceuticals in receiving waters. Due to the fact that the amount of ecotoxicological studies has increased significantly during the last decade, probabilistic approaches for risk characterization of these compounds may be feasible. This approach was evaluated by applying it to 22 human-used pharmaceuticals covering both pharmaceuticals with a high volume and high ecotoxicity, using ecotoxicological effect data from laboratory studies and comparing these to monitoring data on the effluents from sewage treatment plants in Europe and pharmaceutical sales quantities. We found that for 19 of the 22 selected pharmaceuticals the existing data were sufficient for probabilistic risk characterizations. The subsequently modeled ratios between monitored concentrations and low-effect concentrations were mostly above a factor of 100. Compared to the current paradigm for EU environmental risk assessment where a safety factor of 10 or 100 might have been used it seems that for the modeled compounds there's a low environmental risk. However, similarly calculated ratios for five pharmaceuticals (propranolol, ibuprofen, furosemide, ofloxacin, and ciprofloxacin) were below 100, while ibuprofen and ciprofloxacin are considered to be of high concern due to lack of ecotoxicity studies. This paper shows that by applying probabilistic approaches, existing data can be used to execute a comprehensive study on probability of impacts, thereby contributing to a more comprehensive environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals.
Characterizing Stressors and Modifiable Health Risk Factors Among Homeless Smokers: An Exploratory Pilot Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kendzor, Darla E; Reitzel, Lorraine R; Businelle, Michael S

2015-10-01

This pilot study was conducted to explore the associations between stressors related to homelessness and modifiable health risk factors (poor diet, insufficient physical activity, and overweight/obesity) and to provide direction for future research. Participants (N = 57) were homeless adults enrolled in a smoking cessation program. Analyses were conducted to characterize the sample as well as the relations between relevant stressors (discrimination, chronic stress, and fear and mistrust) and health risk factors. Inadequate daily consumption of fruits, vegetables, and fiber was common. High-fat diet and insufficient physical activity were also prevalent, and the majority of participants were overweight/obese. Participants commonly endorsed discrimination, fear of victimization, mistrust of others, and several other stressors. Greater endorsement of stressors was associated with a high-fat diet. Results suggest that lifestyle interventions and policy changes may be warranted in homeless shelters to attenuate the potential effects of stressors on high-fat dietary consumption among smokers. © 2015 Society for Public Health Education.
Superfund risk assessment in soil contamination studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoddinott, K.B.

1992-01-01

This symposium was held in New Orleans, Louisiana on January 30-31, 1991. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of information on risk assessment associated with soil contamination. The conference included presentations in the following categories: site characterization; fate and transport; toxicity, exposures, and receptors; risk characterization/case studies; and establishing cleanup levels. Individual papers have been cataloged separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases
Sources of uncertainty in characterizing health risks from flare emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hrudey, S.E.

2000-01-01

The assessment of health risks associated with gas flaring was the focus of this paper. Health risk assessments for environmental decision-making includes the evaluation of scientific data to identify hazards and to determine dose-response assessments, exposure assessments and risk characterization. Gas flaring has been the cause for public health concerns in recent years, most notably since 1996 after a published report by the Alberta Research Council. Some of the major sources of uncertainty associated with identifying hazardous contaminants in flare emissions were discussed. Methods to predict human exposures to emitted contaminants were examined along with risk characterization of predicted exposures to several identified contaminants. One of the problems is that elemental uncertainties exist regarding flare emissions which places limitations of the degree of reassurance that risk assessment can provide, but risk assessment can nevertheless offer some guidance to those responsible for flare emissions
Overview of the Capstone Depleted Uranium Study of Aerosols from Impact with Armored Vehicles: Test Setup and Aerosol Generation, Characterization, and Application in Assessing Dose and Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parkhurst, MaryAnn; Guilmette, Raymond A.

2009-01-01

The Capstone Depleted Uranium (DU) Aerosol Characterization and Risk Assessment Study was conducted to generate data about DU aerosols generated during the perforation of armored combat vehicles with large-caliber DU penetrators, and to apply the data in assessments of human health risks to personnel exposed to these aerosols, primarily through inhalation, during the 1991 Gulf War or in future military operations. The Capstone study consisted of two components: (1) generating, sampling and characterizing DU aerosols by firing at and perforating combat vehicles and (2) applying the source-term quantities and characteristics of the aerosols to the evaluation of doses and risks. This paper reviews the background of the study including the bases for the study, previous reviews of DU particles and health assessments from DU used by the U.S. military, the objectives of the study components, the participants and oversight teams, and the types of exposures it was intended to evaluate. It then discusses exposure scenarios used in the dose and risk assessment and provides an overview of how the field tests and dose and risk assessments were conducted
Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

1991-01-01

In this study, rail and highway routes which may be used for shipments of high-level nuclear waste to a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada are characterized. This characterization facilitates three types of impact analysis: comparative study, limited worst-case assessment, and more sophisticated probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Data for relative and absolute impact measures are provided to support comparisons of routes based on selected characteristics. A worst-case scenario assessment is included to determine potentially critical and most likely places for accidents or incidents to occur. The assessment facilitated by the data in this study is limited because impact measures are restricted to the identification of potential areas or persons affected. No attempt is made to quantify the magnitude of these impacts. Most likely locations for accidents to occur are determined relative to other locations within the scope of this study. Independent factors and historical trends used to identify these likely locations are only proxies for accident probability
Identification and Characterization of Prodromal Risk Syndromes in Young Adolescents in the Community: A Population-Based Clinical Interview Study.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

2012-02-01

While a great deal of research has been conducted on prodromal risk syndromes in relation to help-seeking individuals who present to the clinic, there is a lack of research on prodromal risk syndromes in the general population. The current study aimed first to establish whether prodromal risk syndromes could be detected in non-help-seeking community-based adolescents and secondly to characterize this group in terms of Axis-1 psychopathology and general functioning. We conducted in-depth clinical interviews with a population sample of 212 school-going adolescents in order to assess for prodromal risk syndromes, Axis-1 psychopathology, and global (social\\/occupational) functioning. Between 0.9% and 8% of the community sample met criteria for a risk syndrome, depending on varying disability criteria. The risk syndrome group had a higher prevalence of co-occurring nonpsychotic Axis-1 psychiatric disorders (OR = 4.77, 95% CI = 1.81-12.52; P < .01) and poorer global functioning (F = 24.5, df = 1, P < .0001) compared with controls. Individuals in the community who fulfill criteria for prodromal risk syndromes demonstrate strong similarities with clinically presenting risk syndrome patients not just in terms of psychotic symptom criteria but also in terms of co-occurring psychopathology and global functioning.

Characterizing health risks associated with recreational swimming at Taiwanese beaches by using quantitative microbial risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Ching-Ping

2018-01-01

Taiwan is surrounded by oceans, and therefore numerous pleasure beaches attract millions of tourists annually to participate in recreational swimming activities. However, impaired water quality because of fecal pollution poses a potential threat to the tourists' health. This study probabilistically characterized the health risks associated with recreational swimming engendered by waterborne enterococci at 13 Taiwanese beaches by using quantitative microbial risk assessment. First, data on enterococci concentrations at coastal beaches monitored by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration were reproduced using nonparametric Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The ingestion volumes of recreational swimming based on uniform and gamma distributions were subsequently determined using MCS. Finally, after the distribution combination of the two parameters, the beta-Poisson dose-response function was employed to quantitatively estimate health risks to recreational swimmers. Moreover, various levels of risk to recreational swimmers were classified and spatially mapped to explore feasible recreational and environmental management strategies at the beaches. The study results revealed that although the health risks associated with recreational swimming did not exceed an acceptable benchmark of 0.019 illnesses daily at all beaches, they approached to this benchmark at certain beaches. Beaches with relatively high risks are located in Northwestern Taiwan owing to the current movements.
Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2009-04-01

The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.
Flood Risk Characterization for the Eastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Villarini, G.; Smith, J. A.; Ntelekos, A. A.

2009-04-01

Tropical cyclones landfalling in the eastern United States pose a major risk for insured property and can lead to extensive damage through storm surge flooding, inland flooding or extreme windspeeds. Current hurricane cat-models do not include calculations of inland flooding from the outer rainfall bands of tropical cyclones but the issue is becoming increasingly important for commercial insurance risk assessment. The results of this study could be used to feed into the next generation of hurricane cat-models and assist in the calculation of damages from inland hurricane flood damage. Annual maximum peak discharge records from more than 400 stations in the eastern United States with at least 75 years of record to examine the role of landfalling tropical cyclones in controlling the upper tail of inland flood risk for the eastern United States. In addition to examining tropical cyclone inland flood risk at specific locations, the spatial extent of extreme flooding from lanfalling tropical cyclones is analyzed. Analyses of temporal trends and abrupt changes in the mean and variance of annual flood peaks are performed. Change-point analysis is performed using the non-parametric Pettitt test. Two non-parametric (Mann-Kendall and Spearman) tests and one parametric (Pearson) test are applied to detect the presence of temporal trends. Flood risk characterization centers on assessments of the spatial variation in "upper tail" properties of annual flood peak distributions. The modeling framework for flood frequency analysis is provided by the Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS).
Epidemiological characterization and risk evaluation associated with the presence of Megninia spp. in posture farms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiago Mendonça de Oliveira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: This study was accomplished with the aim to evaluate and to characterize the risks for the presence of Megninia spp. in poultry farms from Minas Gerais, using for that Correspondence Analysis (CA. A secondary database was used and adapted for this study, with information from 402 chicken houses of 42 laying hens commercial properties. Variables used to compose the correspondence model were selected through tests of Qui-square being considered the significant result of P≤0,05. A risk index was built to the presence of Megninia spp. starting from variables considered as risk factors for the presence of those ectoparasites. The CA graph produced for the epidemiological characterization of the presence of Megninia spp. presented an accumulated qui-square value of 58,55%. There was an association of the risk index with the age ranges of the poultry, among the presence Megninia spp. and the use of mineral oil and acaricide in the ration and; finally, an association between the ruddy ground-dove (Columbina talpacoti presence and the absence of mites of the Megninia genus. The results supply knowledge on the epidemiology of Megninia spp. In addition, these information can contribute in the decision, reducing the risks of possible infestations in poultry farms and the negative effects of that parasitism.
Developing Hydrogeological Site Characterization Strategies based on Human Health Risk

Science.gov (United States)

de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.; Maxwell, R. M.

2013-12-01

In order to provide better sustainable groundwater quality management and minimize the impact of contamination in humans, improved understanding and quantification of the interaction between hydrogeological models, geological site information and human health are needed. Considering the joint influence of these components in the overall human health risk assessment and the corresponding sources of uncertainty aid decision makers to better allocate resources in data acquisition campaigns. This is important to (1) achieve remediation goals in a cost-effective manner, (2) protect human health and (3) keep water supplies clean in order to keep with quality standards. Such task is challenging since a full characterization of the subsurface is unfeasible due to financial and technological constraints. In addition, human exposure and physiological response to contamination are subject to uncertainty and variability. Normally, sampling strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on the overall system uncertainty. Therefore, quantifying the impact from each of these components (hydrogeological, behavioral and physiological) in final human health risk prediction can provide guidance for decision makers to best allocate resources towards minimal prediction uncertainty. In this presentation, a multi-component human health risk-based framework is presented which allows decision makers to set priorities through an information entropy-based visualization tool. Results highlight the role of characteristic length-scales characterizing flow and transport in determining data needs within an integrated hydrogeological-health framework. Conditions where uncertainty reduction in human health risk predictions may benefit from better understanding of the health component, as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization, are also discussed. Finally, results illustrate how different dose
Promise assessment: A corollary to risk assessment for characterizing benefits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sholtis, J.A. Jr.

1993-01-01

Decisions involving the use of hazardous technologies are often made based on risk-benefit considerations. This is the case for U.S. space mission use of nuclear power and propulsion systems, where launch decisions are made within the office of the President. A great deal of time and effort is spent characterizing the risk for each nuclear-powered space mission. However, this is not so for benefits, even though they are no less important. To correct this situation, a new technical term--promise--is defined, and a new methodology--promise assessment--is proposed. This paper introduces and advances this concept, addresses its future application, as a tool, can be developed sufficiently and applied to methodically identify and characterized benefits. Further, it can introduce a degree of balance when judgments concerning the use of hazardous technologies are involved
Treatment of Passive Component Reliability in Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization FY 2010 Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robert W Youngblood

2010-09-01

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) pathway is a set of activities defined under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The overarching objective of RISMC is to support plant life-extension decision-making by providing a state-of-knowledge characterization of safety margins in key systems, structures, and components (SSCs). A technical challenge at the core of this effort is to establish the conceptual and technical feasibility of analyzing safety margin in a risk-informed way, which, unlike conventionally defined deterministic margin analysis, is founded on probabilistic characterizations of SSC performance.
Motoric Cognitive Risk Syndrome and Falls Risk: A Multi-Center Study

Science.gov (United States)

Callisaya, Michele L.; Ayers, Emmeline; Barzilai, Nir; Ferrucci, Luigi; Guralnik, Jack M.; Lipton, Richard B.; Otahal, Petr; Srikanth, Velandai K.; Verghese, Joe

2016-01-01

Background The Motoric Cognitive Risk Syndrome (MCR) is characterized by slow gait speed and cognitive complaints. Objectives The objective of this study was to determine if the presence of MCR increases the risk of falls in older people. Methods Individual participant data (n = 6,204) from five longitudinal studies from three countries were used for this analysis. MCR diagnosis was defined as both the presence of objectively measured slow gait speed and subjective cognitive complaints in those without dementia or mobility disability. Falls were prospectively ascertained using phone calls or questionnaires. Log binomial regression was performed to determine if MCR increased the risk of falls separately in each cohort. Random effects meta-analysis was used to pool results from all cohorts. Results The mean age of participants was 74.9 (SD 6.8) years and 44% (n = 2728) were male. Overall 33.9% (n = 2104) reported a fall over follow-up. Pooled relative risk of MCR with any falls was RR 1.44 95% CI 1.16, 1.79. The components of MCR, slow gait (RR 1.30 95% CI 1.14, 1.47) and cognitive complaint (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07, 1.46) were also associated with an increased risk of any falls. In sub-analyses MCR was associated with any fall independent of previous falls (RR 1.29 95% CI 1.09, 1.53) and with multiple falls (RR 1.77, 95% CI 1.25, 2.51). Conclusion MCR is associated with an increased risk of falls. The increase in risk was higher than for its individual components. The simplicity of the MCR makes it an attractive falls risk screening tool for the clinic. PMID:27340851
Integrating mechanistic and polymorphism data to characterize human genetic susceptibility for environmental chemical risk assessment in the 21st century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mortensen, Holly M.; Euling, Susan Y.

2013-01-01

Response to environmental chemicals can vary widely among individuals and between population groups. In human health risk assessment, data on susceptibility can be utilized by deriving risk levels based on a study of a susceptible population and/or an uncertainty factor may be applied to account for the lack of information about susceptibility. Defining genetic susceptibility in response to environmental chemicals across human populations is an area of interest in the NAS' new paradigm of toxicity pathway-based risk assessment. Data from high-throughput/high content (HT/HC), including -omics (e.g., genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics) technologies, have been integral to the identification and characterization of drug target and disease loci, and have been successfully utilized to inform the mechanism of action for numerous environmental chemicals. Large-scale population genotyping studies may help to characterize levels of variability across human populations at identified target loci implicated in response to environmental chemicals. By combining mechanistic data for a given environmental chemical with next generation sequencing data that provides human population variation information, one can begin to characterize differential susceptibility due to genetic variability to environmental chemicals within and across genetically heterogeneous human populations. The integration of such data sources will be informative to human health risk assessment
Characterizing the genetic influences on risk aversion.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrati, Amal

2014-01-01

Risk aversion has long been cited as an important factor in retirement decisions, investment behavior, and health. Some of the heterogeneity in individual risk tolerance is well understood, reflecting age gradients, wealth gradients, and similar effects, but much remains unexplained. This study explores genetic contributions to heterogeneity in risk aversion among older Americans. Using over 2 million genetic markers per individual from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, I report results from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on risk preferences using a sample of 10,455 adults. None of the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are found to be statistically significant determinants of risk preferences at levels stricter than 5 × 10(-8). These results suggest that risk aversion is a complex trait that is highly polygenic. The analysis leads to upper bounds on the number of genetic effects that could exceed certain thresholds of significance and still remain undetected at the current sample size. The findings suggest that the known heritability in risk aversion is likely to be driven by large numbers of genetic variants, each with a small effect size.
Health risk characterization for exposure to benzene in service stations and petroleum refineries environments using human adverse response data.

Science.gov (United States)

Edokpolo, Benjamin; Yu, Qiming Jimmy; Connell, Des

2015-01-01

Health risk characterization of exposure to benzene in service stations and petroleum refineries has been carried out in previous studies using guideline values set by various agencies. In this work, health risk was characterized with the exposure data as cumulative probability distribution (CPD) plots but using human epidemiological data. This was achieved by using lowest observable adverse effects levels (LOAEL) data plotted as cumulative probability lowest effects distribution (CPLED). The health risk due to benzene was characterized by using probabilistic methods of hazard quotient (HQ 50/50 and HQ 95/5 ), Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) and overall risk probability (ORP). CPD relationships of adverse health effects relationships and exposure data were in terms of average daily dose (ADD) and lifetime average daily dose (LADD) for benzene. For service station environments HQ 50/50 and HQ 95/5 were in a range of 0.000071-0.055 and 0.0049-21, respectively. On the other hand, the risk estimated for petroleum refinery environments suggests higher risk with HQ 50/50 and HQ 95/5 values ranging from 0.0012 to 77 and 0.17 to 560, respectively. The results of Monte-Carlo risk probability (MRP) and ORP indicated that workers in petroleum refineries (MRP of 2.9-56% and ORP of 4.6-52% of the affected population) were at a higher risk of adverse health effects from exposure to benzene as compared to exposure to benzene in service station environments (MRP of 0.051 -3.4% and ORP of 0.35-2.7% affected population). The adverse effect risk probabilities estimated by using the Monte-Carlo simulation technique and the ORP method were found to be generally consistent.
Improved Safety Margin Characterization of Risk from Loss of Offsite Power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, Paul

2017-01-01

Original intent: The original intent of this task was ''support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characteristic (RISMC) methodology in order'' ''to address ... efficiency of computation so that more accurate and cost-effective techniques can be used to address safety margin characterizations'' (S. M. Hess et al., ''Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization,'' Procs. ICONE17, Brussels, July 2009, CD format). It was intended that ''in Task 1 itself this improvement will be directed toward upon the very important issue of Loss of Offsite Power (LOOP) events,'' more specifically toward the challenge of efficient computation of the multidimensional nonrecovery integral that has been discussed by many previous contributors to the theory of nuclear safety. It was further envisioned that ''three different computational approaches will be explored,'' corresponding to the three subtasks listed below; deliverables were tied to the individual subtasks.
Characterizing the genetic risk for Type 2 diabetes in a Malaysian multi-ethnic cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdullah, N; Abdul Murad, N A; Attia, J; Oldmeadow, C; Mohd Haniff, E A; Syafruddin, S E; Abd Jalal, N; Ismail, N; Ishak, M; Jamal, R; Scott, R J; Holliday, E G

2015-10-01

To characterize the association with Type 2 diabetes of known Type 2 diabetes risk variants in people in Malaysia of Malay, Chinese and Indian ancestry who participated in the Malaysian Cohort project. We genotyped 1604 people of Malay ancestry (722 cases, 882 controls), 1654 of Chinese ancestry (819 cases, 835 controls) and 1728 of Indian ancestry (851 cases, 877 controls). First, 62 candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with Type 2 diabetes were assessed for association via logistic regression within ancestral groups and then across ancestral groups using a meta-analysis. Second, estimated odds ratios were assessed for excess directional concordance with previously studied populations. Third, a genetic risk score aggregating allele dosage across the candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms was tested for association within and across ancestral groups. After Bonferroni correction, seven individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms were associated with Type 2 diabetes in the combined Malaysian sample. We observed a highly significant excess in concordance of effect directions between Malaysian and previously studied populations. The genetic risk score was strongly associated with Type 2 diabetes in all Malaysian groups, explaining from 1.0 to 1.7% of total Type 2 diabetes risk variance. This study suggests there is substantial overlap of the genetic risk alleles underlying Type 2 diabetes in Malaysian and other populations. © 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2015 Diabetes UK.
RISK-INFORMED SAFETY MARGIN CHARACTERIZATION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dinh, Nam; Szilard, Ronaldo

2009-01-01

The concept of safety margins has served as a fundamental principle in the design and operation of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). Defined as the minimum distance between a system's 'loading' and its 'capacity', plant design and operation is predicated on ensuring an adequate safety margin for safety-significant parameters (e.g., fuel cladding temperature, containment pressure, etc.) is provided over the spectrum of anticipated plant operating, transient and accident conditions. To meet the anticipated challenges associated with extending the operational lifetimes of the current fleet of operating NPPs, the United States Department of Energy (USDOE), the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) have developed a collaboration to conduct coordinated research to identify and address the technological challenges and opportunities that likely would affect the safe and economic operation of the existing NPP fleet over the postulated long-term time horizons. In this paper we describe a framework for developing and implementing a Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) approach to evaluate and manage changes in plant safety margins over long time horizons
Psychosocial risks evaluation factors: study with higher education teachers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara Lopes Borges

2018-02-01

Method: The study consisted of the administration of two instruments, one for the characterization of the sample and the other for assessing psychosocial risk factors — the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire — consisting of 76 items (5-point Likert scale, distributed in five dimensions, which measure indicators of exposure to psychosocial risks and their effects. Results: The study included 59 teachers, mostly men (50.8%, aged between 41 - 50 years (45.8%, with master's degree (59%, assistant professors (47.5%; with a stable employment relationship (68%, years of service between 14-17 years (18.7% and teaching between 11 - 17 hours a week (64.4%. The analysis of the various subscales revealed a psychosocial risk, showing that teachers are in a situation of vulnerability. There were significant differences between the risks experienced in public higher education and those experienced in private higher education. Gender, age, academic background, and professional category influenced the type of psychosocial risk. Conclusions: The study confirms the importance of the evaluation of psychosocial risk factors in the exercise of the teaching profession in higher education. It is recognized that it is necessary to assess and manage psychosocial risks in order to promote healthy working conditions, ensure respect and fair treatment, and encourage the promotion of work / family life balance, in order to minimize psychosocial risks and situations of vulnerability in higher education teachers.
Risk characterization of hospitalizations for mental illness and/or behavioral disorders with concurrent heat-related illness.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael T Schmeltz

Full Text Available Many studies have found significant associations between high ambient temperatures and increases in heat-related morbidity and mortality. Several studies have demonstrated that increases in heat-related hospitalizations are elevated among individuals with diagnosed mental illnesses and/or behavioral disorders (MBD. However, there are a limited number of studies regarding risk factors associated with specific mental illnesses that contribute, at least in part, to heat-related illnesses (HRI in the United States.To identify and characterize individual and environmental risk factors associated with MBD hospitalizations with a concurrent HRI diagnosis.This study uses hospitalization data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2001-2010. Descriptive analyses of primary and secondary diagnoses of MBDs with an HRI were examined. Risk ratios (RR were calculated from multivariable models to identify risk factors for hospitalizations among patients with mental illnesses and/or behavioral disorders and HRI.Nondependent alcohol/drug abuse, dementia, and schizophrenia were among the disorders that were associated with increased frequency of HRI hospitalizations among MBD patients. Increased risk of MBD hospitalizations with HRI was observed for Males (RR, 3.06, African Americans (RR, 1.16, Native Americans (RR, 1.70, uninsured (RR, 1.92, and those 40 years and older, compared to MBD hospitalizations alone.Previous studies outside the U.S. have found that dementia and schizophrenia are significant risk factors for HRI hospitalizations. Our results suggest that hospitalizations among substance abusers may also be an important risk factor associated with heat morbidity. Improved understanding of these relative risks could help inform future public health strategies.
Characterization of vascular disease risk in postmenopausal women and its association with cognitive performance.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N Maritza Dowling

Full Text Available While global measures of cardiovascular (CV risk are used to guide prevention and treatment decisions, these estimates fail to account for the considerable interindividual variability in pre-clinical risk status. This study investigated heterogeneity in CV risk factor profiles and its association with demographic, genetic, and cognitive variables.A latent profile analysis was applied to data from 727 recently postmenopausal women enrolled in the Kronos Early Estrogen Prevention Study (KEEPS. Women were cognitively healthy, within three years of their last menstrual period, and free of current or past CV disease. Education level, apolipoprotein E ε4 allele (APOE4, ethnicity, and age were modeled as predictors of latent class membership. The association between class membership, characterizing CV risk profiles, and performance on five cognitive factors was examined. A supervised random forest algorithm with a 10-fold cross-validation estimator was used to test accuracy of CV risk classification.The best-fitting model generated two distinct phenotypic classes of CV risk 62% of women were "low-risk" and 38% "high-risk". Women classified as low-risk outperformed high-risk women on language and mental flexibility tasks (p = 0.008 and a global measure of cognition (p = 0.029. Women with a college degree or above were more likely to be in the low-risk class (OR = 1.595, p = 0.044. Older age and a Hispanic ethnicity increased the probability of being at high-risk (OR = 1.140, p = 0.002; OR = 2.622, p = 0.012; respectively. The prevalence rate of APOE-ε4 was higher in the high-risk class compared with rates in the low-risk class.Among recently menopausal women, significant heterogeneity in CV risk is associated with education level, age, ethnicity, and genetic indicators. The model-based latent classes were also associated with cognitive function. These differences may point to phenotypes for CV disease risk. Evaluating
Identification of a dietary pattern characterized by high-fat food choices associated with increased risk of breast cancer: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Schulz, Mandy; Hoffmann, Kurt; Weikert, Cornelia; Nöthlings, Ute; Schulze, Matthias B; Boeing, Heiner

2008-11-01

Epidemiological studies conducted thus far have mainly used a single-nutrient approach which may not be sufficient in detecting diet-cancer relationships. The aim of the study was to examine the association of a food pattern based on explained variations in fatty acid intake by means of reduced rank regression with breast cancer risk. Study participants were female subjects (n 15,351) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam Study free of cancer at baseline and with complete dietary and outcome information followed for an average of 6.0 years. Among those, 137 incident cases of invasive breast cancer were identified. We identified a food pattern characterized by low consumption of bread, and fruit juices, and high consumption of processed meat, fish, butter and other animal fats, and margarine explaining >42 % of total variation in fatty acid intake (SFA, MUFA, n-3 PUFA, n-6 PUFA). Intake of all four fatty acid fractions was positively associated with the pattern score. Adherence to this food pattern adjusted for covariates was associated with a two-fold risk (hazard ratio 2.00; 95 % CI 1.30, 3.09) of breast cancer comparing extreme tertiles of the pattern score. There was no evidence of effect modification by menopausal status, overweight status and use of hormone replacement therapy, respectively. In conclusion, a food pattern characterized by high-fat food choices was significantly associated with increased risk of breast cancer. Given that the food pattern was high in all fatty acid fractions, we found evidence for total dietary fat rather than for specific fatty acids to be associated with breast cancer risk.
Endogenous Information, Risk Characterization, and the Predictability of Average Stock Returns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pradosh Simlai

2012-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper we provide a new type of risk characterization of the predictability of two widely known abnormal patterns in average stock returns: momentum and reversal. The purpose is to illustrate the relative importance of common risk factors and endogenous information. Our results demonstrates that in the presence of zero-investment factors, spreads in average momentum and reversal returns correspond to spreads in the slopes of the endogenous information. The empirical findings support the view that various classes of firms react differently to volatility risk, and endogenous information harbor important sources of potential risk loadings. Taken together, our results suggest that returns are influenced by random endogenous information flow, which is asymmetric in nature, and can be used as a performance attribution factor. If one fails to incorporate the existing asymmetric endogenous information hidden in the historical behavior, any attempt to explore average stock return predictability will be subject to an unquantified specification bias.
On the characterization of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tzur, Y.

1980-01-01

The concept of risk is associated with the concepts of event, harmful consequence, and probability. Initiating events and their possible developments, together with their associated probabilities, induce a probability space on the space of consequences. The risk is defined as a probability density function (or distribution) on the space of harmful consequences. The risks involved in nuclear power plants are taken as an example. Possible presentations of the risk (e.g. radiation-dose space and health-effects space) are discussed and the relationship between them is analysed. The relationship of some presentations in common use (such as the presentation of the risk in the Rasmussen report) to the above definition of the risk is also discussed. Some of the implications of the definition are explored further and the different receptors of risk, social and personal risks, and the possibility (or impossibility) of comparing risks are discussed. Ways of refining the description of the risk in risk assessments are outlined as an application of the definition. It is argued that personal risk, social risk, and correlations between consequences are necessary. (author)

Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.
Health Risk Assessment for Uranium in Groundwater - An Integrated Case Study Based on Hydrogeological Characterization and Dose Calculation

Science.gov (United States)

Franklin, M. R.; Veiga, L. H.; Py, D. A., Jr.; Fernandes, H. M.

2010-12-01

The uranium mining and milling facilities of Caetité (URA) is the only active uranium production center in Brazil. Operations take place at a very sensitive semi-arid region in the country where water resources are very scarce. Therefore, any contamination of the existing water bodies may trigger critical consequences to local communities because their sustainability is closely related to the availability of the groundwater resources. Due to the existence of several uranium anomalies in the region, groundwater can present radionuclide concentrations above the world average. The radiological risk associated to the ingestion of these waters have been questioned by members of the local communities, NGO’s and even regulatory bodies that suspected that the observed levels of radionuclide concentrations (specially Unat) could be related to the uranium mining and milling operations. Regardless the origin of these concentrations the fear that undesired health effects were taking place (e.g. increase in cancer incidence) remain despite the fact that no evidence - based on epidemiological studies - is available. This paper intends to present the connections between the local hydrogeology and the radiological characterization of groundwater in the neighboring areas of the uranium production center to understand the implications to the human health risk due to the ingestion of groundwater. The risk assessment was performed, taking into account the radiological and the toxicological risks. Samples from 12 wells have been collected and determinations of Unat, Thnat, 226Ra, 228Ra and 210Pb were performed. The radiation-related risks were estimated for adults and children by the calculation of the annual effective doses. The potential non-carcinogenic effects due to the ingestion of uranium were evaluated by the estimation of the hazard index (HI). Monte Carlo simulations were used to calculate the uncertainty associated with these estimates, i.e. the 95% confidence interval
Sudbury soils study : summary of volume 3 : ecological risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2009-03-15

The Sudbury soils study was comprised of 3 volumes: (1) a background, study organization and 2001 soils survey; (2) a human health risk assessment; and (3) an ecological risk assessment (ERA). This document provided details of the ERA, which was conducted to characterize the current and future risks of chemicals of concern (COC) to terrestrial and ecosystem components from Sudbury smelter particulate emissions. The extent to which COC are preventing the recovery of regionally representative terrestrial plant communities was investigated. Risks to terrestrial wildlife populations and endangered species and communities were evaluated. Samples of soil, water, sediment, plants, terrestrial invertebrates, and fish tissue were collected. Data were then analyzed by scientists and independent consultants in order to assess the impacts of arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, lead, nickel and selenium. Results of the study indicated that terrestrial plant communities in the region continue to be impacted by COC in the soil, as well as by soil erosion, low nutrient levels, and a lack of soil organic matter. Direct impacts on wildlife populations were also observed. 5 refs., 7 tabs., 21 figs.
Quantifying Safety Margin Using the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grabaskas, David; Bucknor, Matthew; Brunett, Acacia; Nakayama, Marvin

2015-04-26

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC), developed by Idaho National Laboratory as part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability Project, utilizes a probabilistic safety margin comparison between a load and capacity distribution, rather than a deterministic comparison between two values, as is usually done in best-estimate plus uncertainty analyses. The goal is to determine the failure probability, or in other words, the probability of the system load equaling or exceeding the system capacity. While this method has been used in pilot studies, there has been little work conducted investigating the statistical significance of the resulting failure probability. In particular, it is difficult to determine how many simulations are necessary to properly characterize the failure probability. This work uses classical (frequentist) statistics and confidence intervals to examine the impact in statistical accuracy when the number of simulations is varied. Two methods are proposed to establish confidence intervals related to the failure probability established using a RISMC analysis. The confidence interval provides information about the statistical accuracy of the method utilized to explore the uncertainty space, and offers a quantitative method to gauge the increase in statistical accuracy due to performing additional simulations.
High-risk populations identified in Childhood Cancer Survivor Study investigations: implications for risk-based surveillance.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson, Melissa M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Bowers, Daniel C; Sklar, Charles A; Green, Daniel M; Donaldson, Sarah S; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Neglia, Joseph P; Meadows, Anna T; Robison, Leslie L

2009-05-10

Childhood cancer survivors often experience complications related to cancer and its treatment that may adversely affect quality of life and increase the risk of premature death. The purpose of this manuscript is to review how data derived from Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) investigations have facilitated identification of childhood cancer survivor populations at high risk for specific organ toxicity and secondary carcinogenesis and how this has informed clinical screening practices. Articles previously published that used the resource of the CCSS to identify risk factors for specific organ toxicity and subsequent cancers were reviewed and results summarized. CCSS investigations have characterized specific groups to be at highest risk of morbidity related to endocrine and reproductive dysfunction, pulmonary toxicity, cerebrovascular injury, neurologic and neurosensory sequelae, and subsequent neoplasms. Factors influencing risk for specific outcomes related to the individual survivor (eg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, attained age), sociodemographic status (eg, education, household income, health insurance) and cancer history (eg, diagnosis, treatment, time from diagnosis) have been consistently identified. These CCSS investigations that clarify risk for treatment complications related to specific treatment modalities, cumulative dose exposures, and sociodemographic factors identify profiles of survivors at high risk for cancer-related morbidity who deserve heightened surveillance to optimize outcomes after treatment for childhood cancer.
Falls in institutions for older adults: characterization of fall occurrences and associated risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Rosa Soares Lavareda Baixinho

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Falls are the main accident for older adults, with consequences on functionality. Older adults impose restrictions or have restrictions imposed on their activities for fear of new falls. This prospective longitudinal study was conducted with 104 institutionalized older adults during six months with the following goals: to determine the prevalence of falls, to characterize the falls according to place, time, resulting injuries, supervision of the older adult, action performed at the time of the fall, and to relate the occurrence of the fall to the risk of falling, medical diagnoses, number of medications in use, type of medication, degree of dependency, age, and gender. The prevalence of falls was 37.5%, and they happened mostly in the bedroom, while walking after getting up from the bed. Those under risk in the Morse Fall Scale (p=0.034 and on sedatives (p=0.007 face a higher prevalence of falls. This study enables the possibility of making suggestions for practice, training and investigation.
The Metabolic Syndrome and Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hess, Paul L; Al-Khalidi, Hussein R; Friedman, Daniel J; Mulder, Hillary; Kucharska-Newton, Anna; Rosamond, Wayne R; Lopes, Renato D; Gersh, Bernard J; Mark, Daniel B; Curtis, Lesley H; Post, Wendy S; Prineas, Ronald J; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Al-Khatib, Sana M

2017-08-23

Prior studies have demonstrated a link between the metabolic syndrome and increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. Whether the metabolic syndrome is associated with sudden cardiac death is uncertain. We characterized the relationship between sudden cardiac death and metabolic syndrome status among participants of the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study (1987-2012) free of prevalent coronary heart disease or heart failure. Among 13 168 participants, 357 (2.7%) sudden cardiac deaths occurred during a median follow-up of 23.6 years. Participants with the metabolic syndrome (n=4444) had a higher cumulative incidence of sudden cardiac death than those without it (n=8724) (4.1% versus 2.3%, P metabolic syndrome, the metabolic syndrome was independently associated with sudden cardiac death (hazard ratio, 1.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.37-2.12, P metabolic syndrome criteria components. The risk of sudden cardiac death varied according to the number of metabolic syndrome components (hazard ratio 1.31 per additional component of the metabolic syndrome, 95% confidence interval, 1.19-1.44, P metabolic syndrome was associated with a significantly increased risk of sudden cardiac death irrespective of sex or race. The risk of sudden cardiac death was proportional to the number of metabolic syndrome components. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.
Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Steinberg, S. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Rossi, M.; Riccio, G.; Romero, E.; Francisco, D.

2016-01-01

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and
EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

2000-01-01

Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations
Total petroleum hydrocarbons: Characterization of physico-chemical behaviour and risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gemoets, J.; Lookman, R.; Vanermen, G.; Houtven, D. van; Bertels, D.; Weltens, R.; Cornelis, C. [VITO, Mol (Belgium); Vries, P. de; Sterren, G. van der; Alphenaar, A. [TTE, Deventer (Netherlands)

2003-07-01

Several methods are available for the characterization of petroleum hydrocarbons. Recently, the TPHCWG (Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group) developed a method based upon a silica column separation of aromatics and aliphatics and a GC-FID subdivision into equivalent-carbon fractions (EC) ('TPH-method'). Within NOBIS (Dutch Research program Biological I-situ Remediation), another method was developed based upon an equilibrium-experiment of the oil-polluted soil with water (column recirculation), which was further developed by TTE ('TTE-method'). This method uses measured water solubilities of individual oil components and GC-retention times yielding a subdivision of the hydrocarbons into compound classes. The present study aims at a verification (reproducibility; accuracy) and optimization of both methods and a critical review on the relevance of the proposed fractions for the prediction of human health risks. Two 'umpire' methods were selected for reference: GS-MS in full scan mode and liquid state NMR. (orig.)
Study of Cardiovascular Risk Factors Among Transport Drivers In Rural Area Of Andhra Pradesh

OpenAIRE

Sharvanan Eshwaran Udayar, Rajesh Kumar K, Praveen Kumar BA, Sivachandiran Vairamuthu, Srinivas Thatuku

2015-01-01

"Background: Non-communicable diseases are the leading causes of death globally and recent studies had demonstrated that transport drivers are at greater risk of developing cardiovascular diseases due to an incorrect diet, sedentary behavior, unhealthy lifestyles and obesity. Objective: To characterize transport drivers working in shifts through the assessment of clinical and demographic variables and the presence of some cardiovascular risk factors. Materials and methods: Cross s...
Characterizing Stressors and Modifiable Health Risk Factors among Homeless Smokers: An Exploratory Pilot Study

Science.gov (United States)

Kendzor, Darla E.; Reitzel, Lorraine R.; Businelle, Michael S.

2015-01-01

This pilot study was conducted to explore the associations between stressors related to homelessness and modifiable health risk factors (poor diet, insufficient physical activity, and overweight/obesity) and to provide direction for future research. Participants (N = 57) were homeless adults enrolled in a smoking cessation program. Analyses were…
A risk characterization of safety research areas for integral fast reactor program planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Cahalan, J.E.; Hill, D.J.; Kramer, J.M.; Marchaterre, J.F.; Pedersen, D.R.; Sevy, R.H.; Tibbrook, R.W.; Wei, T.Y.; Wright, A.E.

1988-01-01

This paper characterizes the areas of integral fast reactor (IFR) safety research in terms of their importance in addressing the risk of core disruption sequences for innovative designs. Such sequences have traditionally been determined to constitute the primary risk to public health and safety. All core disruption sequences are folded into four fault categories: classic unprotected (unscrammed) events; loss of decay heat; local fault propagation; and failure to critical reactor structures. Event trees are used to describe these sequences and the areas in the IFR safety and related base technology research programs are discussed with respect to their relevance in addressing the key issues in preventing or delimiting core disruptive sequences. Thus a measure of potential for risk reduction is obtained for guidance in establishing research priorities
A risk characterization of safety research areas for Integral Fast Reactor program planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Cahalan, J.E.; Hill, D.J.

1988-01-01

This paper characterizes the areas of Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) safety research in terms of their importance in addressing the risk of core disruption sequences for innovative designs. Such sequences have traditionally been determined to constitute the primary risk to public health and safety. All core disruption sequences are folded into four fault categories: classic unprotected (unscrammed) events; loss of decay heat; local fault propagation; and failure of critical reactor structures. Event trees are used to describe these sequences and the areas in the IFR Safety and related Base Technology research programs are discussed with respect to their relevance in addressing the key issues in preventing or delimiting core disruptive sequences. Thus a measure of potential for risk reduction is obtained for guidance in establishing research priorites
Characterization of biological aerosol exposure risks from automobile air conditioning system.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jing; Li, Mingzhen; Shen, Fangxia; Zou, Zhuanglei; Yao, Maosheng; Wu, Chang-yu

2013-09-17

Although use of automobile air conditioning (AC) was shown to reduce in-vehicle particle levels, the characterization of its microbial aerosol exposure risks is lacking. Here, both AC and engine filter dust samples were collected from 30 automobiles in four different geographical locations in China. Biological contents (bacteria, fungi, and endotoxin) were studied using culturing, high-throughput gene sequence, and Limulus amebocyte lysate (LAL) methods. In-vehicle viable bioaerosol concentrations were directly monitored using an ultraviolet aerodynamic particle sizer (UVAPS) before and after use of AC for 5, 10, and 15 min. Regardless of locations, the vehicle AC filter dusts were found to be laden with high levels of bacteria (up to 26,150 CFU/mg), fungi (up to 1287 CFU/mg), and endotoxin (up to 5527 EU/mg). More than 400 unique bacterial species, including human opportunistic pathogens, were detected in the filter dusts. In addition, allergenic fungal species were also found abundant. Surprisingly, unexpected fluorescent peaks around 2.5 μm were observed during the first 5 min use of AC, which was attributed to the reaerosolization of those filter-borne microbial agents. The information obtained here can assist in minimizing or preventing the respiratory allergy or infection risk from the use of automobile AC system.
Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

Science.gov (United States)

Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

2005-10-01

The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.
Children's exposure to harmful elements in toys and low-cost jewelry: characterizing risks and developing a comprehensive approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Guney, Mert; Zagury, Gerald J

2014-04-30

Contamination problem in jewelry and toys and children's exposure possibility have been previously demonstrated. For this study, risk from oral exposure has been characterized for highly contaminated metallic toys and jewelry ((MJ), n=16) considering three scenarios. Total and bioaccessible concentrations of Cd, Cu, Ni, and Pb were high in selected MJ. First scenario (ingestion of parts or pieces) caused unacceptable risk for eight items for Cd, Ni, and/or Pb (hazard index (HI)>1, up to 75, 5.8, and 43, respectively). HI for ingestion of scraped-off material scenario was always 1 in three samples (two for Cd, one for Ni). Risk characterization identified different potentially hazardous items compared to United States, Canadian, and European Union approaches. A comprehensive approach was also developed to deal with complexity and drawbacks caused by various toy/jewelry definitions, test methods, exposure scenarios, and elements considered in different regulatory approaches. It includes bioaccessible limits for eight priority elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Sb). Research is recommended on metals bioaccessibility determination in toys/jewelry, in vitro bioaccessibility test development, estimation of material ingestion rates and frequency, presence of hexavalent Cr and organic Sn, and assessment of prolonged exposure to MJ. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

Science.gov (United States)

Gaitan, S.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2015-06-01

Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall, socioeconomic characteristics, and social sensing, may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several spatial datasets have been recently made available in the Netherlands, including rainfall-related incident reports made by citizens, spatially distributed rain depths, semidistributed socioeconomic information, and buildings age. Inspecting the potential of this data to explain the occurrence of rainfall related incidents has not been done yet. Multivariate analysis tools for describing communities and environmental patterns have been previously developed and used in the field of study of ecology. The objective of this paper is to outline opportunities for these tools to explore urban flooding risks patterns in the mentioned datasets. To that end, a cluster analysis is performed. Results indicate that incidence of rainfall-related impacts is higher in areas characterized by older infrastructure and higher population density.
Characterizing and reaching high-risk drinkers using audience segmentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Moss, Howard B; Kirby, Susan D; Donodeo, Fred

2009-08-01

Market or audience segmentation is widely used in social marketing efforts to help planners identify segments of a population to target for tailored program interventions. Market-based segments are typically defined by behaviors, attitudes, knowledge, opinions, or lifestyles. They are more helpful to health communication and marketing planning than epidemiologically defined groups because market-based segments are similar in respect to how they behave or might react to marketing and communication efforts. However, market segmentation has rarely been used in alcohol research. As an illustration of its utility, we employed commercial data that describes the sociodemographic characteristics of high-risk drinkers as an audience segment, including where they tend to live, lifestyles, interests, consumer behaviors, alcohol consumption behaviors, other health-related behaviors, and cultural values. Such information can be extremely valuable in targeting and planning public health campaigns, targeted mailings, prevention interventions, and research efforts. We described the results of a segmentation analysis of those individuals who self-reported to consume 5 or more drinks per drinking episode at least twice in the last 30 days. The study used the proprietary PRIZM (Claritas, Inc., San Diego, CA) audience segmentation database merged with the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) database. The top 10 of the 66 PRIZM audience segments for this risky drinking pattern are described. For five of these segments we provided additional in-depth details about consumer behavior and the estimates of the market areas where these risky drinkers resided. The top 10 audience segments (PRIZM clusters) most likely to engage in high-risk drinking are described. The cluster with the highest concentration of binge-drinking behavior is referred to as the "Cyber Millenials." This cluster is characterized as "the nation's tech
Expeditious Methods for Site Characterization and Risk Assessment at Department of Defense Hazardous Waste Sites in the Republic of Korea

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hartman, Dean

1999-01-01

...) with preferred innovative site characterization technologies and risk assessment methods to meet their needs in obtaining hazardous waste site data and then prioritizing those sites for remediation based upon risk...

Characterizing risk factors for pediatric lamp oil product exposures.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheikh, S; Chang, A; Kieszak, S; Law, R; Bennett, H K W; Ernst, E; Bond, G R; Spiller, H A; Schurz-Rogers, H; Chu, A; Bronstein, A C; Schier, J G

2013-11-01

Poisonings from lamp oil ingestion continue to occur worldwide among the pediatric population despite preventive measures such as restricted sale of colored and scented lamp oils. This suggests that optimal prevention practices for unintentional pediatric exposures to lamp oil have yet to be identified and/or properly implemented. To characterize demographic, health data, and potential risk factors associated with reported exposures to lamp oil by callers to poison centers (PCs) in the US and discuss their public health implications. This was a two part study in which the first part included characterizing all exposures to a lamp oil product reported to the National Poison Data System (NPDS) with regard to demographics, exposure, health, and outcome data from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010. Regional penetrance was calculated using NPDS data by grouping states into four regions and dividing the number of exposure calls by pediatric population per region (from the 2000 US census). Temporal analyses were performed on NPDS data by comparing number of exposures by season and around the July 4th holiday. Poisson regression was used to model the count of exposures for these analyses. In the second part of this project, in order to identify risk factors we conducted a telephone-based survey to the parents of children from five PCs in five different states. The 10 most recent lamp oil product exposure calls for each poison center were systematically selected for inclusion. Calls in which a parent or guardian witnessed a pediatric lamp oil product ingestion were eligible for inclusion. Data on demographics, exposure information, behavioral traits, and health were collected. A descriptive analysis was performed and Fisher's exact test was used to evaluate associations between variables. All analyses were conducted using SAS v9.3. Among NPDS data, 2 years was the most common patient age reported and states in the Midwestern region had the highest numbers of exposure calls compared to
Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)
Precipitation trends over the Korean peninsula: typhoon-induced changes and a typology for characterizing climate-related risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jong-Suk; Jain, Shaleen

2011-01-01

Typhoons originating in the west Pacific are major contributors to climate-related risk over the Korean peninsula. The current perspective regarding improved characterization of climatic risk and the projected increases in the intensity, frequency, duration, and power dissipation of typhoons during the 21st century in the western North Pacific region motivated a reappraisal of historical trends in precipitation. In this study, trends in the magnitude and frequency of seasonal precipitation in the five major river basins in Korea are analyzed on the basis of a separation analysis, with recognition of moisture sources (typhoon and non-typhoon). Over the 1966-2007 period, typhoons accounted for 21-26% of seasonal precipitation, with the largest values in the Nakdong River Basin. Typhoon-related precipitation events have increased significantly over portions of Han, Nakdong, and Geum River Basins. Alongside broad patterns toward increases in the magnitude and frequency of precipitation, distinct patterns of trends in the upper and lower quartiles (corresponding to changes in extreme events) are evident. A trend typology-spatially resolved characterization of the combination of shifts in the upper and lower tails of the precipitation distribution-shows that a number of sub-basins have undergone significant changes in one or both of the tails of the precipitation distribution. This broader characterization of trends illuminates the relative role of causal climatic factors and an identification of 'hot spots' likely to experience high exposure to typhoon-related climatic extremes in the future.
Depleted uranium risk assessment for Jefferson Proving Ground using data from environmental monitoring and site characterization. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebinger, M.H.; Hansen, W.R.

1996-10-01

This report documents the third risk assessment completed for the depleted uranium (DU) munitions testing range at Jefferson Proving Ground (JPG), Indiana, for the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation command. Jefferson Proving Ground was closed in 1995 under the Base Realignment and Closure Act and the testing mission was moved to Yuma Proving Ground. As part of the closure of JPG, assessments of potential adverse health effects to humans and the ecosystem were conducted. This report integrates recent information obtained from site characterization surveys at JPG with environmental monitoring data collected from 1983 through 1994 during DU testing. Three exposure scenarios were evaluated for potential adverse effects to human health: an occasional use scenario and two farming scenarios. Human exposure was minimal from occasional use, but significant risk were predicted from the farming scenarios when contaminated groundwater was used by site occupants. The human health risk assessments do not consider the significant risk posed by accidents with unexploded ordnance. Exposures of white-tailed deer to DU were also estimated in this study, and exposure rates result in no significant increase in either toxicological or radiological risks. The results of this study indicate that remediation of the DU impact area would not substantially reduce already low risks to humans and the ecosystem, and that managed access to JPG is a reasonable model for future land use options
Improved Safety Margin Characterization of Risk from Loss of Offsite Power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nelson, Paul [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

2017-11-07

Original intent: The original intent of this task was “support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characteristic (RISMC) methodology in order” “to address … efficiency of computation so that more accurate and cost-effective techniques can be used to address safety margin characterizations” (S. M. Hess et al., “Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization,” Procs. ICONE17, Brussels, July 2009, CD format). It was intended that “in Task 1 itself this improvement will be directed toward upon the very important issue of Loss of Offsite Power (LOOP) events,” more specifically toward the challenge of efficient computation of the multidimensional nonrecovery integral that has been discussed by many previous contributors to the theory of nuclear safety. It was further envisioned that “three different computational approaches will be explored,” corresponding to the three subtasks listed below; deliverables were tied to the individual subtasks.
Brain network characterization of high-risk preterm-born school-age children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elda Fischi-Gomez

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Higher risk for long-term cognitive and behavioral impairments is one of the hallmarks of extreme prematurity (EP and pregnancy-associated fetal adverse conditions such as intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR. While neurodevelopmental delay and abnormal brain function occur in the absence of overt brain lesions, these conditions have been recently associated with changes in microstructural brain development. Recent imaging studies indicate changes in brain connectivity, in particular involving the white matter fibers belonging to the cortico-basal ganglia-thalamic loop. Furthermore, EP and IUGR have been related to altered brain network architecture in childhood, with reduced network global capacity, global efficiency and average nodal strength. In this study, we used a connectome analysis to characterize the structural brain networks of these children, with a special focus on their topological organization. On one hand, we confirm the reduced averaged network node degree and strength due to EP and IUGR. On the other, the decomposition of the brain networks in an optimal set of clusters remained substantially different among groups, talking in favor of a different network community structure. However, and despite the different community structure, the brain networks of these high-risk school-age children maintained the typical small-world, rich-club and modularity characteristics in all cases. Thus, our results suggest that brain reorganizes after EP and IUGR, prioritizing a tight modular structure, to maintain the small-world, rich-club and modularity characteristics. By themselves, both extreme prematurity and IUGR bear a similar risk for neurocognitive and behavioral impairment, and the here defined modular network alterations confirm similar structural changes both by IUGR and EP at school age compared to control. Interestingly, the combination of both conditions (IUGR + EP does not result in a worse outcome. In such cases, the alteration
Assessing Freshwater Ecosystem Service Risk over Ecological, Socioeconomic, and Cultural Gradients: Problem Space Characterization and Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Harmon, T. C.; Villamizar, S. R.; Conde, D.; Rusak, J.; Reid, B.; Astorga, A.; Perillo, G. M.; Piccolo, M. C.; Zilio, M.; London, S.; Velez, M.; Hoyos, N.; Escobar, J.

2014-12-01

Freshwater ecosystems and the services they provide are under increasing anthropogenic pressure at local (e.g., irrigation diversions, wastewater discharge) and global scales (e.g., climate change, global trading). The impact depends on an ecosystem's sensitivity, which is determined by its geophysical and ecological settings, and the population and activities in its surrounding watershed. Given the importance of ecosystem services, it is critical that we improve our ability to identify and understand changes in aquatic ecosystems, and translate them to risk of service loss. Furthermore, to inspire changes in human behavior, it is equally critical that we learn to communicate risk, and pose risk mitigation strategies, in a manner acceptable to a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Quantifying the nature and timing of the risk is difficult because (1) we often fail to understand the connection between anthropogenic pressures and the timing and extent of ecosystem changes; and (2) the concept of risk is inherently coupled to human perception, which generally differs with cultural and socio-economic conditions. In this study, we endeavor to assess aquatic ecosystem risks across an international array of six study sites. The challenge is to construct a methodology capable of capturing the marked biogeographical, socioeconomic, and cultural differences among the sites, which include: (1) Muskoka River watershed in humid continental Ontario, Canada; (2) Lower San Joaquin River, an impounded snow-fed river in semi-arid Central California; (3) Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta, a tropical coastal lagoon in Colombia; (4) Senguer River basin in the semi-arid part of Argentina; (5) Laguna de Rocha watershed in humid subtropical Uruguay; and (6) Palomas Lake complex in oceanic Chilean Patagonia. Results will include a characterization of the experimental gradient over the six sites, an overview of the risk assessment methodology, and preliminary findings for several of the sites.
Risk characterization data manual for Category D inactive liquid low-level waste tank systems at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-04-01

This manual reports the results of a risk characterization of Category D inactive liquid low-level radioactive waste (LLLW) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The risk characterization is required by the Federal Facility Agreement between the Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations Office, the Environmental Protection Agency-Region IV, and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation. The intent of the risk characterization is to determine relative priorities for assessment and remediation. When the scores for all tanks had been weighted and summed, the tanks were ranked in descending order on the basis of their total scores. The highest possible score for a tank is 30. The descending order represents the recommended priorities for evaluation: the higher the score, the higher the priority for evaluation
Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Gaitan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall, socioeconomic characteristics, and social sensing, may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several spatial datasets have been recently made available in the Netherlands, including rainfall-related incident reports made by citizens, spatially distributed rain depths, semidistributed socioeconomic information, and buildings age. Inspecting the potential of this data to explain the occurrence of rainfall related incidents has not been done yet. Multivariate analysis tools for describing communities and environmental patterns have been previously developed and used in the field of study of ecology. The objective of this paper is to outline opportunities for these tools to explore urban flooding risks patterns in the mentioned datasets. To that end, a cluster analysis is performed. Results indicate that incidence of rainfall-related impacts is higher in areas characterized by older infrastructure and higher population density.
Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-03-01

The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.
Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-03-01

The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ''baseline'' risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site
Characterizing and Reaching High-Risk Drinkers Using Audience Segmentation

Science.gov (United States)

Moss, Howard B.; Kirby, Susan D.; Donodeo, Fred

2010-01-01

Background Market or audience segmentation is widely used in social marketing efforts to help planners identify segments of a population to target for tailored program interventions. Market-based segments are typically defined by behaviors, attitudes, knowledge, opinions, or lifestyles. They are more helpful to health communication and marketing planning than epidemiologically-defined groups because market-based segments are similar in respect to how they behave or might react to marketing and communication efforts. However, market segmentation has rarely been used in alcohol research. As an illustration of its utility, we employed commercial data that describes the sociodemographic characteristics of high-risk drinkers as an audience segment; where they tend to live, lifestyles, interests, consumer behaviors, alcohol consumption behaviors, other health-related behaviors, and cultural values. Such information can be extremely valuable in targeting and planning public health campaigns, targeted mailings, prevention interventions and research efforts. Methods We describe the results of a segmentation analysis of those individuals who self-report consuming five or more drinks per drinking episode at least twice in the last 30-days. The study used the proprietary PRIZM™ audience segmentation database merged with Center for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) database. The top ten of the 66 PRIZM™ audience segments for this risky drinking pattern are described. For five of these segments we provide additional in-depth details about consumer behavior and the estimates of the market areas where these risky drinkers reside. Results The top ten audience segments (PRIZM clusters) most likely to engage in high-risk drinking are described. The cluster with the highest concentration of binge drinking behavior is referred to as the “Cyber Millenials.” This cluster is characterized as “the nation's tech-savvy singles
Effects of alternative styles of risk information on EMF risk perception

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jesper Bo; Elstein, Arthur; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte

2010-01-01

Risk scenarios characterized by exposures to new technologies with unknown health effects, together with limited appreciation of benefits pose a challenge to risk communication. The present report illustrates this situation through a study of the perceived risk from mobile phones and mobile masts...... radiation from mobile phones and masts. The objective was to study whether different types of information were rated as equally useful, informative, comprehensible, and trustworthy. Moreover, an important issue was whether information would influence risk perception and intended behavior. The conclusion...
Children's exposure to harmful elements in toys and low-cost jewelry: Characterizing risks and developing a comprehensive approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guney, Mert; Zagury, Gerald J., E-mail: gerald.zagury@polymtl.ca

2014-04-01

Highlights: • Risk for children up to 3 years-old was characterized considering oral exposure. • Saliva mobilization, ingestion of parts and of scraped-off material were considered. • Ingestion of parts caused hazard index (HI) values >>for Cd, Ni, and Pb exposure. • HI were lower (but > for saliva mobilization and <1 for scraped material ingestion. • Comprehensive approach aims to deal with drawbacks of current toy safety approaches. - Abstract: Contamination problem in jewelry and toys and children's exposure possibility have been previously demonstrated. For this study, risk from oral exposure has been characterized for highly contaminated metallic toys and jewelry ((MJ), n = 16) considering three scenarios. Total and bioaccessible concentrations of Cd, Cu, Ni, and Pb were high in selected MJ. First scenario (ingestion of parts or pieces) caused unacceptable risk for eight items for Cd, Ni, and/or Pb (hazard index (HI) > 1, up to 75, 5.8, and 43, respectively). HI for ingestion of scraped-off material scenario was always <1. Finally, saliva mobilization scenario caused HI > 1 in three samples (two for Cd, one for Ni). Risk characterization identified different potentially hazardous items compared to United States, Canadian, and European Union approaches. A comprehensive approach was also developed to deal with complexity and drawbacks caused by various toy/jewelry definitions, test methods, exposure scenarios, and elements considered in different regulatory approaches. It includes bioaccessible limits for eight priority elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Sb). Research is recommended on metals bioaccessibility determination in toys/jewelry, in vitro bioaccessibility test development, estimation of material ingestion rates and frequency, presence of hexavalent Cr and organic Sn, and assessment of prolonged exposure to MJ.
Is risk analysis scientific?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
Regulatory cost-risk study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-04-01

This study is intended to provide some quantitative perspective by selecting certain examples of criteria for which estimates of risks and costs can be obtained, and the balance of the various risks, (i.e., internal versus external risks), can be put into perspective. 35 refs., 39 tabs
Comparisons and Characterizations of the Mean-Variance, Mean-VaR, Mean-CVaR Models for Portfolio Selection With Background Risk

OpenAIRE

Xu, Guo; Wing-Keung, Wong; Lixing, Zhu

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the impact of background risk on an investor’s portfolio choice in a mean-VaR, mean-CVaR and mean-variance framework, and analyzes the characterizations of the mean-variance boundary and mean-VaR efficient frontier in the presence of background risk. We also consider the case with a risk-free security.
Case Characterization, Clinical Features and Risk Factors in Drug-Induced Liver Injury

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aida Ortega-Alonso

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Idiosyncratic drug-induced liver injury (DILI caused by xenobiotics (drugs, herbals and dietary supplements presents with a range of both phenotypes and severity, from acute hepatitis indistinguishable of viral hepatitis to autoimmune syndromes, steatosis or rare chronic vascular syndromes, and from asymptomatic liver test abnormalities to acute liver failure. DILI pathogenesis is complex, depending on the interaction of drug physicochemical properties and host factors. The awareness of risk factors for DILI is arising from the analysis of large databases of DILI cases included in Registries and Consortia networks around the world. These networks are also enabling in-depth phenotyping with the identification of predictors for severe outcome, including acute liver failure and mortality/liver transplantation. Genome wide association studies taking advantage of these large cohorts have identified several alleles from the major histocompatibility complex system indicating a fundamental role of the adaptive immune system in DILI pathogenesis. Correct case definition and characterization is crucial for appropriate phenotyping, which in turn will strengthen sample collection for genotypic and future biomarkers studies.
Regulatory cost-risk study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1983-04-01

This study is intended to provide some quantitative perspective by selecting certain examples of criteria for which estimates of risks and costs can be obtained, and the balance of the various risks, (i.e., internal versus external risks), can be put into perspective. 35 refs., 39 tabs. (JDB)
Prevalence of risk factors for stuttering among boys: analytical cross-sectional study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristiane Moço Canhetti Oliveira

Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE:There have been few studies on the risk factors for subgroups of stuttering. The aim of this study was to characterize the risk factors for developmental familial stuttering among boys who stutter and who do not stutter, such as disfluency types, associated quality and communication factors, emotional and physical stress, familial attitudes and personal reactions.DESIGN AND SETTING:Analytical cross-sectional study with a control group, performed at the Fluency Studies Laboratory of the Department of Speech and Hearing Disorders of a public university.METHODS: The parents of 40 age-matched stuttering and non-stuttering boys took part in this study. The participants were divided into two groups: stuttering children (SC and non-stuttering children (NSC, with ages between 6 years 0 months and 11 years 11 months. Initially, all of the participants underwent a fluency assessment and then data were gathered using the Protocol for the Risk of Developmental Stuttering.RESULTS:There were no differences in the physical stress distribution factors and personal reactions between the groups. Inappropriate familial attitudes were presented by 95% of the SC and 30% of the NSC. Four risk factors analyzed were not shown by the NSC, namely stuttering-like disfluency, quality factors, physical stress and emotional stresses.CONCLUSIONS:The findings suggest that the presence of stuttering-like disfluency, associated quality and communication factors, emotional stress and inappropriate family attitudes are important risk factors for familial developmental stuttering among boys.

Characterization of heavy-metal-contaminated sediment by using unsupervised multivariate techniques and health risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yeuh-Bin; Liu, Chen-Wuing; Wang, Sheng-Wei

2015-03-01

This study characterized the sediment quality of the severely contaminated Erjen River in Taiwan by using multivariate analysis methods-including factor analysis (FA), self-organizing maps (SOMs), and positive matrix factorization (PMF)-and health risk assessment. The SOMs classified the dataset with similar heavy-metal-contaminated sediment into five groups. FA extracted three major factors-traditional electroplating and metal-surface processing factor, nontraditional heavy-metal-industry factor, and natural geological factor-which accounted for 80.8% of the variance. The SOMs and FA revealed the heavy-metal-contaminated-sediment hotspots in the middle and upper reaches of the major tributary in the dry season. The hazardous index value for health risk via ingestion was 0.302. PMF further qualified the source apportionment, indicating that traditional electroplating and metal-surface-processing industries comprised 47% of the health risk posed by heavy-metal-contaminated sediment. Contaminants discharged from traditional electroplating and metal-surface-processing industries in the middle and upper reaches of the major tributary must be eliminated first to improve the sediment quality in Erjen River. The proposed assessment framework for heavy-metal-contaminated sediment can be applied to contaminated-sediment river sites in other regions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

Science.gov (United States)

Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

2015-01-01

The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336
Medication Desensitization: Characterization of Outcomes and Risk Factors for Reactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Taryn S; Rice, Todd W; Wheeler, Arthur P; Phillips, Elizabeth J; Dworski, Ryszard T; Stollings, Joanna L

2016-03-01

Although its mechanisms are poorly understood, desensitization has been used to induce a temporary state of immune unresponsiveness in patients who have IgE-, non-IgE-, or pharmacologically mediated reactions when a drug has no alternatives. The purpose of this study was to characterize the outcomes and identify risk factors for reactions during drug desensitization. A retrospective review of electronic medical records of adult patients undergoing drug desensitization from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2013, was conducted in 2 intensive care units at a tertiary medical center. We used multivariate analysis to determine if specified risk factors were associated with reacting during the desensitization. Reactions were classified according to the pretest probability prior to desensitization, and then, reactions during desensitization were classified based on the occurrence of cutaneous reactions as follows: successful with no reaction, mild reaction, moderate reaction, or failed. Failure could result from any systemic allergic or cutaneous reaction resulting in procedure termination. The desensitizations were also assessed to determine if the patient required de-escalation secondary to a reaction. A total of 88 desensitizations were performed in 69 patients. Desensitization was completed with no cutaneous reaction in 85% of patients. No baseline characteristic, medication class (P = 0.46), or indication for desensitization (P = 0.59) was associated with having a reaction. Reported histories of urticaria (P desensitization. However, neither history of urticaria nor labored breathing was independently associated with having a reaction in multivariate analysis (OR = 0.979, 95% CI = 0.325-2.952, P = 0.970, and OR = 1.626, 95% CI = 0.536-4.931, P = 0.739, respectively). Drug desensitization is safe for patients who have no alternative for therapy. Reported allergy histories of urticaria and labored breathing are both associated with having a reaction during the
Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

2018-01-01

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...
Non-invasive Characterization of the Histopathologic Features of Pulmonary Nodules of the Lung Adenocarcinoma Spectrum using Computer Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY) – a Pilot Study

Science.gov (United States)

Maldonado, Fabien; Boland, Jennifer M.; Raghunath, Sushravya; Aubry, Marie Christine; Bartholmai, Brian J.; deAndrade, Mariza; Hartman, Thomas E.; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Sykes, Anne-Marie; Yang, Ping; Yi, Eunhee S.; Robb, Richard A.; Peikert, Tobias

2013-01-01

Introduction Pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum are characterized by distinctive morphological and radiological features and variable prognosis. Non-invasive high-resolution computed-tomography (HRCT)-based risk stratification tools are needed to individualize their management. Methods Radiological measurements of histopathologic tissue invasion were developed in a training set of 54 pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum and validated in 86 consecutively resected nodules. Nodules were isolated and characterized by computer-aided analysis and data were analyzed by Spearman correlation, sensitivity, specificity as well as the positive and negative predictive values. Results Computer Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY) can non-invasively characterize pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Unsupervised clustering analysis of HRCT data identified 9 unique exemplars representing the basic radiologic building blocks of these lesions. The exemplar distribution within each nodule correlated well with the proportion of histologic tissue invasion, Spearman R=0.87,p < 0.0001 and 0.89,p < 0.0001 for the training and the validation set, respectively. Clustering of the exemplars in three-dimensional space corresponding to tissue invasion and lepidic growth was used to develop a CANARY decision algorithm, which successfully categorized these pulmonary nodules as “aggressive” (invasive adenocarcinoma) or “indolent” (adenocarcinoma in situ and minimally invasive adenocarcinoma). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of this approach for the detection of “aggressive” lesions were 95.4%, 96.8%, 95.4% and 96.8%, respectively in the training set and 98.7%, 63.6%, 94.9% and 87.5%, respectively in the validation set. Conclusion CANARY represents a promising tool to non-invasively risk stratify pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum. PMID:23486265
Risk communication. Risk studies in social science; Risk communication. Risk kenkyu eno shakai kagakuteki approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Asami, M. [Keio Univ., Tokyo (Japan)

1995-11-05

It is recently, that is, in and after the 1980s that socio-scientific approaches began to be made to studies on `risk`. It started to be made clear that the progress of the scientific technology does not necessarily bring about good news to man, and obvious estrangement has begun to appear between scientific evaluation and social evaluation of risk. The subject of risk communication (RC) study is to tackle a proposition whether the estrangement will continue to exist as estrangement or the estrangement can be made smaller by any means. This paper explains the recent trend of the study. For example, as for how each individual thinks about risk, that is, the risk perception, a new framework is trially being constructed by introduction of the quantitative method using psychometrics. A duty of RC is to serve to bridge the gap between scientific technology and society which are controlled by values which are incompatible with each other. Therefore, RC will be more and more important. 15 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.
Common risk indicators for oral diseases and obesity in 12-year-olds: a South Pacific cross sectional study

OpenAIRE

Tubert-Jeannin, Stéphanie; Pichot, Hélène; Rouchon, Bernard; Pereira, Bruno; Hennequin, Martine

2018-01-01

Background Despite the increasing need to prevent obesity and oral diseases in adolescents worldwide, few studies have investigated the link existing between these conditions and their common risk factors. This study aims to evaluate the oral health and weight status of New Caledonian Children (aged 6,9,12 years) and to identify, amongst 12-year-olds, risk indicators that may characterize the groups of children affected by oral diseases, obesity or both diseases. Methods This survey evaluated...
Modified social ecological model: a tool to guide the assessment of the risks and risk contexts of HIV epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Baral, Stefan; Logie, Carmen H; Grosso, Ashley; Wirtz, Andrea L; Beyrer, Chris

2013-05-17

Social and structural factors are now well accepted as determinants of HIV vulnerabilities. These factors are representative of social, economic, organizational and political inequities. Associated with an improved understanding of multiple levels of HIV risk has been the recognition of the need to implement multi-level HIV prevention strategies. Prevention sciences research and programming aiming to decrease HIV incidence requires epidemiologic studies to collect data on multiple levels of risk to inform combination HIV prevention packages. Proximal individual-level risks, such as sharing injection devices and unprotected penile-vaginal or penile-anal sex, are necessary in mediating HIV acquisition and transmission. However, higher order social and structural-level risks can facilitate or reduce HIV transmission on population levels. Data characterizing these risks is often far more actionable than characterizing individual-level risks. We propose a modified social ecological model (MSEM) to help visualize multi-level domains of HIV infection risks and guide the development of epidemiologic HIV studies. Such a model may inform research in epidemiology and prevention sciences, particularly for key populations including men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PID), and sex workers. The MSEM builds on existing frameworks by examining multi-level risk contexts for HIV infection and situating individual HIV infection risks within wider network, community, and public policy contexts as well as epidemic stage. The utility of the MSEM is demonstrated with case studies of HIV risk among PID and MSM. The MSEM is a flexible model for guiding epidemiologic studies among key populations at risk for HIV in diverse sociocultural contexts. Successful HIV prevention strategies for key populations require effective integration of evidence-based biomedical, behavioral, and structural interventions. While the focus of epidemiologic studies has traditionally been on
Characterization and classification of patients with different levels of cardiac death risk by using Poincaré plot analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, Javier; Voss, Andreas; Caminal, Pere; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Giraldo, Beatriz F

2017-07-01

Cardiac death risk is still a big problem by an important part of the population, especially in elderly patients. In this study, we propose to characterize and analyze the cardiovascular and cardiorespiratory systems using the Poincaré plot. A total of 46 cardiomyopathy patients and 36 healthy subjets were analyzed. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was used to stratify patients with low risk (LR: LVEF > 35%, 16 patients), and high risk (HR: LVEF ≤ 35%, 30 patients) of heart attack. RR, SBP and T Tot time series were extracted from the ECG, blood pressure and respiratory flow signals, respectively. Parameters that describe the scatterplott of Poincaré method, related to short- and long-term variabilities, acceleration and deceleration of the dynamic system, and the complex correlation index were extracted. The linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and the support vector machines (SVM) classification methods were used to analyze the results of the extracted parameters. The results showed that cardiac parameters were the best to discriminate between HR and LR groups, especially the complex correlation index (p = 0.009). Analising the interaction, the best result was obtained with the relation between the difference of the standard deviation of the cardiac and respiratory system (p = 0.003). When comparing HR vs LR groups, the best classification was obtained applying SVM method, using an ANOVA kernel, with an accuracy of 98.12%. An accuracy of 97.01% was obtained by comparing patients versus healthy, with a SVM classifier and Laplacian kernel. The morphology of Poincaré plot introduces parameters that allow the characterization of the cardiorespiratory system dynamics.
Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still
Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tilburt Jon C

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92% used an observational design and focused on women (70% with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although
Exploring Longitudinal Risk-return Relationships

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben J.; Bettis, Richard A.

2015-01-01

We study a longitudinal fit model of adaptation and its association with the longitudinal risk-return relationship. The model allows the firm to adjust its position in response to partial learning about a changing environment characterized by two path-dependent processes—a random walk and a stoch......We study a longitudinal fit model of adaptation and its association with the longitudinal risk-return relationship. The model allows the firm to adjust its position in response to partial learning about a changing environment characterized by two path-dependent processes—a random walk...... can lead to the inverse longitudinal risk-return relationships observed empirically. We discuss this apparent paradox and the possible resolution between mindless and conscious behavior as plausible causes of the longitudinal Bowman Paradox....
Aquatic characterization for resources at risk in eastern Canada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fraser, A S

1986-12-01

To ascertain quantitative estimates of resources at risk for eastern Canada, linkage must be made between geological terrain sensitivity to acid deposition and water chemistry. An evaluation has been made of watershed areas principally in the Province of Quebec to identify and characterize factors related to LRTAP effects. The watershed areas are geographically located within the bounds of the high sulphate deposition zone of the continental plume. To identify specific test watersheds for detailed analysis, alkalinity frequency distributions were computed. A selection of watersheds has been made that spans the Pre-Cambrian shield region of the Laurentian highlands, the St. Lawrence lowlands and the Gaspe Peninsula. There is evidence that areas in the far eastern areas of Quebec, removed from strong anthropogenic sources may be considered as approaching critical levels of alkalinity. Ionic composition for selected watersheds display similar chemical characteristics. These differences have been assessed in light of the common effects of sulphate deposition. 11 references.
Determination of Key Risk Supervision Areas around River-Type Water Sources Affected by Multiple Risk Sources: A Case Study of Water Sources along the Yangtze’s Nanjing Section

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qi Zhou

2017-02-01

Full Text Available To provide a reference for risk management of water sources, this study screens the key risk supervision areas around river-type water sources (hereinafter referred to as the water sources threatened by multiple fixed risk sources (the risk sources, and establishes a comprehensive methodological system. Specifically, it comprises: (1 method of partitioning risk source concentrated sub-regions for screening water source perimeter key risk supervision areas; (2 approach of determining sub-regional risk indexes (SrRI, which characterizes the scale of sub-regional risks considering factors like risk distribution intensity within sub-regions, risk indexes of risk sources (RIRS, characterizing the risk scale of risk sources and the number of risk sources; and (3 method of calculating sub-region’s risk threats to the water sources (SrTWS which considers the positional relationship between water sources and sub-regions as well as SrRI, and the criteria for determining key supervision sub-regions. Favorable effects are achieved by applying this methodological system in determining water source perimeter sub-regions distributed along the Yangtze’s Nanjing section. Results revealed that for water sources, the key sub-regions needing supervision were SD16, SD06, SD21, SD26, SD15, SD03, SD02, SD32, SD10, SD11, SD14, SD05, SD27, etc., in the order of criticality. The sub-region with the greatest risk threats on the water sources was SD16, which was located in the middle reaches of Yangtze River. In general, sub-regions along the upper Yangtze reaches had greater threats to water sources than the lower reach sub-regions other than SD26 and SD21. Upstream water sources were less subject to the threats of sub-regions than the downstream sources other than NJ09B and NJ03.
Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Wells, S. [Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States); Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K. [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

1995-02-01

Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report.
Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A.; Wells, S.; Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K.; Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

1995-02-01

Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report
Nutrient patterns and risk of cataract: a case-control study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatemeh Sedaghat

2017-04-01

Full Text Available AIM: To assess the relation between nutrient patterns and cataract risk. METHODS: This is a hospital-based case-control study with 97 cataract patients and 198 matched controls. Dietary consumption was collected through a valid food frequency questionnaire (FFQ. Nutrient patterns were detected by applying factor analysis. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratio (ORs and 95%CIs. RESULTS: We extracted 5 main nutrient patterns. Factor 1 included niacin, thiamin, carbohydrates, protein, zinc, vitamin B6 and sodium (sodium pattern. Factor 2 was characterized by oleic acid, monounsaturated fats, polyunsaturated fats, linoleic acid, trans fatty acid, linolenic acid, vitamin E and saturated fats (fatty acid pattern. The third factor represented high intake of vitamin B12, vitamin D, cholesterol and calcium (mixed pattern. The 4th pattern was high in intake of beta and alpha carotene, vitamin A and vitamin C (antioxidant pattern. Finally, the 5th pattern loaded heavily on docosahexaenoic acid (DHA and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA (omega-3 pattern. In crude and multivariate analysis, the sodium pattern was associated with increased risk of cataract (OR=1.97, 95%CI: 1.09-3.96. The fatty acid pattern elevated the risk of cataract (OR=1.94, 95%CI: 1.1-3.86. Antioxidant pattern was associated with a significant 79% reduced risk (2nd category compared with the 1st. Omega-3 pattern was significantly negatively associated with risk of cataract (P=0.04. CONCLUSION: These findings imply that nutrient patterns reflecting a combined consumption of nutrients might be important in the etiology of cataract. Additional studies with more efficient designs are warranted to confirm our findings.
Cardiovascular risk profile of high school students: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rocha, Teresa; Rocha, Evangelista; Alves, Ana Catarina; Medeiros, Ana Margarida; Francisco, Vânia; Silva, Sónia; Mendes Gaspar, Isabel; Rato, Quitéria; Bourbon, Mafalda

2014-09-01

Disease prevention should begin in childhood and lifestyles are important risk determinants of cardiovascular disease. Awareness and monitoring of risk is essential in preventive strategies. To characterize cardiovascular risk and the relationships between certain variables in adolescents. In a cross-sectional study, 854 adolescent schoolchildren were surveyed, mean age 16.3 ± 0.9 years. Data collection included questionnaires, physical examination, charts for 10-year relative risk of mortality, and biochemical assays. In the statistical analysis continuous variables were studied by the Student's t test and categorical variables by the chi-square test and Fisher's exact test, and each risk factor was entered as a dependent variable in logistic regression analysis. Physical activity was insufficient in 81% of students. The daily consumption of soup, salad or vegetables, and fruit was, respectively, 37%, 39% and 21%. A minority (6%) took ≤ 3 and 77% took ≥ 5 meals a day. The prevalence of each risk factor was as follows: overweight 16%; smoking 13%; hypertension 11%; impaired glucose metabolism 9%; hypertriglyceridemia 9%; and hypercholesterolemia 5%. Out-of-school physical activity, hypertension and overweight were more prevalent in males (p<0.001). Females had higher levels of cholesterol (p<0.005) and triglycerides (p<0.001). A quarter of the adolescents had a relative risk score for 10-year cardiovascular mortality of ≥ 2. Overweight showed a positive association with blood pressure, changes in glucose metabolism and triglycerides, and a negative association with number of daily meals. The results demonstrate the need for action in providing and encouraging healthy choices for adolescents, with an emphasis on behavioral and lifestyle changes aimed at individuals, families and communities. Copyright © 2013 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.
Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations
Neural measures of social attention across the first years of life: characterizing typical development and markers of autism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Luyster, Rhiannon J; Powell, Christine; Tager-Flusberg, Helen; Nelson, Charles A

2014-04-01

Few studies employing event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine infant perception/cognition have systematically characterized age-related changes over the first few years of life. Establishing a 'normative' template of development is important in its own right, and doing so may also better highlight points of divergence for high-risk populations of infants, such as those at elevated genetic risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The present investigation explores the developmental progression of the P1, N290, P400 and Nc components for a large sample of young children between 6 and 36 months of age, addressing age-related changes in amplitude, sensitivity to familiar and unfamiliar stimuli and hemispheric lateralization. Two samples of infants are included: those at low- and high-risk for ASD. The four components of interest show differential patterns of change over time and hemispheric lateralization; however, infants at low- and high-risk for ASD do not show significant differences in patterns of neural response to faces. These results will provide a useful point of reference for future developmental cognitive neuroscience research targeting both typical development and vulnerable populations. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Exploring public databases to characterize urban flood risks in Amsterdam

Science.gov (United States)

Gaitan, Santiago; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van de Giesen, Nick

2015-04-01

Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to decide upon investment to reduce their impacts. Obvious flooding factors affecting flood risk include sewer systems performance and urban topography. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall and socioeconomic characteristics may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several public databases were analyzed: complaints about flooding made by citizens, rainfall depths (15 min and 100 Ha spatio-temporal resolution), grids describing number of inhabitants, income, and housing price (1Ha and 25Ha resolution); and buildings age. Data analysis was done using Python and GIS programming, and included spatial indexing of data, cluster analysis, and multivariate regression on the complaints. Complaints were used as a proxy to characterize flooding impacts. The cluster analysis, run for all the variables except the complaints, grouped part of the grid-cells of central Amsterdam into a highly differentiated group, covering 10% of the analyzed area, and accounting for 25% of registered complaints. The configuration of the analyzed variables in central Amsterdam coincides with a high complaint count. Remaining complaints were evenly dispersed along other groups. An adjusted R2 of 0.38 in the multivariate regression suggests that explaining power can improve if additional variables are considered. While rainfall intensity explained 4% of the incidence of complaints, population density and building age significantly explained around 20% each. Data mining of public databases proved to be a valuable tool to identify factors explaining variability in occurrence of urban pluvial flooding, though additional variables must be considered to fully explain flood risk variability.
What characterizes persons with high levels of perceived stress in Denmark? A national representative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, Line; Curtis, Tine; Kristensen, Tage S; Rod Nielsen, Naja

2008-06-01

Stress is a growing public health problem, but there are only a few studies with national representative samples on the occurrence of stress. The aim of this study was to assess the level of stress, measured by the Perceived Stress Scale, in Denmark, and to identify and characterize the group with high levels of stress by factors measured at both the individual and neighbourhood levels in a national representative sample of the Danish population. The 10,022 participants in the National Health Interview Survey 2005 were asked about perceived stress and individual factors in a cross-sectional design. Information on neighbourhood factors was derived from a national registry. Data were analysed by means of logistic regression models. Low education, heavy smoking, physical inactivity, lack of social network and poor working conditions were associated with perceived stress. For women, living in a neighbourhood with low average education, and for men, living in a neighbourhood with a high rate of crime and a low degree of ethnic diversity, were associated with higher perceived stress. Perceived stress was also related to indicators of morbidity. The group with high perceived stress is characterized by individual and neighbourhood factors with negative impacts on quality of life and risk of illness. This knowledge can guide future stress prevention efforts. Additionally, the results suggest a negative social component where perceived stress, unhealthy lifestyle and low social status are accumulated, and perceived stress might be used as a measure to identify groups characterized by accumulation of risk factors.
Risk characterization data manual for Category D inactive liquid low-level waste tank systems at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

This manual reports the results of a risk characterization of Category D inactive liquid low-level radioactive waste (LLLW) underground storage tanks (Uses) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The risk characterization is required by the Federal Facility Agreement between the Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations Office, the Environmental Protection Agency-Region IV, and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation. The intent of the risk characterization is to determine relative priorities for assessment and remediation. A total of 55 FFA Category D inactive LLLW tanks are discussed in this manual. Of the 39 tanks at ORNL that have been accepted into the Environmental Restoration (ER) Program, all have been sampled for preliminary characterization, except for 5 tanks that were found to be empty plus I that was found not to exist. The remaining 16 tanks are in the Waste Management (WM) Program. Twelve were sampled for preliminary characterization, and four were found empty. Each sampled tank was scored on a scale of I to 5 on the basis of three criteria: (1) leak characteristics, (2) location, and (3) toxicological characteristics of residual sludges and liquids. Each criterion was assigned a weighing factor based on perceived importance. The criterion score multiplied by the weighting factor equaled the tank's total score for that criterion. The three weighted criterion scores for each tank were then summed for a total score for that tank. When the scores for all tanks had been weighted and summed, the tanks were ranked in descending order on the basis of their total scores. The highest possible score for a tank is 30. The descending rank order represents the recommended priorities for evaluation: the higher the score, the higher the priority for evaluation. Of the 54 tanks sampled in the risk characterization, 23 tanks scored 16 or higher, 11 scored between 10 and 15, 5 scored between 4 and 9, and 15 scored 3 or less
Risk characterization data manual for Category D inactive liquid low-level waste tank systems at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-07-01

This manual reports the results of a risk characterization of Category D inactive liquid low-level radioactive waste (LLLW) underground storage tanks (USTs) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The risk characterization is required by the Federal Facility Agreement between the Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations Office, the Environmental Protection Agency-Region IV, and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation. The intent of the risk characterization is to determine relative priorities for assessment and remediation. A total of 55 FFA Category D inactive LLLW tanks are discussed in this manual. Of the 39 tanks at ORNL that have been accepted into the Environmental Restoration (ER) Pregrain, all have been sampled for preliminary characterization, except for 5 tanks that were found to be empty plus 1 that was found not to exist. The remaining 16 tanks are in the Waste Management (WM) Program. Twelve were sampled for preliminary characterization, and four were found empty. Each sampled tank was scored on a scale of I to 5 on the basis of three criteria: (1) leak characteristics, (2) location, and (3) toxicological characteristics of residual sludges and liquids. Each criterion was assigned a weighing factor based on perceived importance. The criterion score multiplied by the weighting factor equaled the tank's total score for that criterion. The three weighted criterion scores for each tank were then summed for a total score for that tank. When the scores for all tanks had been weighted and summed, the tanks were ranked in descending order on the basis of their total scores. The highest possible score for a tank is 30. The descending rank order represents the recommended priorities for evaluation: the higher the score, the higher the priority for evaluation. Of the 54 tanks sampled in the risk characterization, 23 tanks scored 16 or higher, 11 scored between 10 and 15, 5 scored between 4 and 9, and 15 scored 3 or less
Adolescent perceptions of orthodontic treatment risks and risk information: A qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, John; Johnson, Ilona; Popat, Hashmat; Morgan, Maria Z; Gill, Paul

2018-04-24

For effective risk communication, clinicians must understand patients' values and beliefs in relation to the risks of treatment. This qualitative study aimed to explore adolescent perceptions of orthodontic treatment risks and risk information. Five focus groups were carried out with 32 school/college pupils aged 12-18 in Wales, UK. Participants were purposively selected and had all experienced orthodontic treatment. A thematic approach was used for analysis and data collection was completed at the point of data saturation. Four themes emerged from the data; (a) day-to-day risks of orthodontic treatment, (b) important orthodontic risk information, (c) engaging with orthodontic risk information and (d) managing the risks of orthodontic treatment. Day-to-day risks of orthodontic treatment that were affecting participants "here and now" were of most concern. Information about preventing the risks of treatment was deemed to be important. Participants did not actively seek risk information but engaged passively with information from convenient sources. Perceptions of risk susceptibility influenced participants' management of the risks of orthodontic treatment. This study demonstrates that adolescent patients can understand information about the nature and severity of orthodontic treatment risks. However, adolescent patients can have false perceptions if the risks are unfamiliar, perceived only to have a future impact or if seen as easy to control. Adolescent patients must be provided with timely and easily accessible risk information and with practical solutions to prevent the risks of treatment. The views and experiences gathered in this study can assist clinicians to better understand their young patients' beliefs about treatment risks, facilitate effective risk communication and contribute to improved patient-centred care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Diabetes mellitus defined by hemoglobin A1c value: Risk characterization for incidence among Japanese subjects in the JPHC Diabetes Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Masayuki; Takahashi, Yoshihiko; Matsushita, Yumi; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Inoue, Manami; Kadowaki, Takashi; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Noda, Mitsuhiko

2011-10-07

Aims/Introduction: Although several risk factors for type 2 diabetes have been identified, most of them have been identified in studies on Western populations, and they should be evaluated in a Japanese population. In 2010, new diagnostic criteria for diabetes mellitus using hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) were released and its use in epidemiological studies has many advantages. The aim of the present study was to evaluate risk factors for type 2 diabetes defined based on HbA1c values in a Japanese population. A total of 9223 subjects (3076 men and 6147 women) were followed up for 5 years. Diabetes was defined based on self-report or HbA1c value. Risk factors for diabetes were evaluated as odds ratios adjusted for potential confounding factors by logistic regression. During the 5-year follow-up period, we documented 518 incident cases of diabetes (232 men and 286 women). Of the 518 incident cases, 310 cases were diagnosed by HbA1c alone. Among the men, age, smoking (both past smoking and current smoking) and family history of diabetes significantly increased the risk of diabetes. Among the women, body mass index, family history of diabetes and hypertension significantly increased the risk of diabetes. These results did not change markedly after adjustment for the baseline HbA1c values, and the baseline HbA1c value itself was a significant risk factor for diabetes mellitus. Known risk factors for diabetes established in Western populations also increased the risk of diabetes in a Japanese population defined on the basis of HbA1c values. (J Diabetes Invest, doi: 10.1111/j.2040-1124.2011.00119.x, 2011).
Dietary risk factors for colorectal cancer in Brazil: a case control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Angelo, Sandro Nunes; Lourenço, Gustavo J; Magro, Daniéla O; Nascimento, Helvia; Oliveira, Rogério A; Leal, Raquel F; Ayrizono, Maria de Lourdes S; Fagundes, João J; Coy, Claudio S R; Lima, Carmen S P

2016-02-27

High meat intake and low consumption of vegetables, fruits and whole grains have been associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer in some relevant cohort studies conducted in distinct ethnic populations. The role of the dietary pattern on the risk of sporadic colorectal adenocarcinoma (SCA) in Brazil is unknown; therefore, it was the aim of the present study. The dietary patterns of 169 patients with SCA and 101 controls were analysed by food frequency recall. Crude odds ratios were calculated and given within 95 % confidence intervals. Patients reported higher average intakes of beef (32.0 ± 1.8 versus 23.7 ± 1.6, P = 0.0069), chicken (18.1 ± 0.9 versus 12.2 ± 0.8, P = 0.0002), and pork (8.9 ± 0.9 versus 3.4 ± 0.5, P < 0.0001). These individuals had a 1.025, 1.069, and 1.121-fold increased risk of SCA. Similar consumption of fish, vegetables, fruits and whole grains was reported by patients and controls. Meat consumption is greater in patients with SCA in the Brazilian population. Considering the study population - characterized by ethnic heterogeneity -, the environmental factor related to food habits may be associated with higher incidence of this disease in Brazil.
Does radiation risk exist?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Passchier, W.

1996-01-01

Risk assessment and risk management are parts of a dynamic process with the objective to decide on the tolerability of risk and on measures to keep risk within accepted limits. It enables all relevant parties to express their concerns and preferences regarding the different options for the human action involved and regarding the relative importance of criteria to decide on the tolerability of risk. Risk assessment has three phases; problem definition, risk analysis and risk characterization. Risk analysis is primarily a technical and scientific endeavour. With regard to problem definition and ride characterization consultation between risk assessors and risk managers (and other parties concerned) is a must. (author)
A combined field/remote sensing approach for characterizing landslide risk in coastal areas

Science.gov (United States)

Francioni, Mirko; Coggan, John; Eyre, Matthew; Stead, Doug

2018-05-01

Understanding the key factors controlling slope failure mechanisms in coastal areas is the first and most important step for analyzing, reconstructing and predicting the scale, location and extent of future instability in rocky coastlines. Different failure mechanisms may be possible depending on the influence of the engineering properties of the rock mass (including the fracture network), the persistence and type of discontinuity and the relative aspect or orientation of the coastline. Using a section of the North Coast of Cornwall, UK, as an example we present a multi-disciplinary approach for characterizing landslide risk associated with coastal instabilities in a blocky rock mass. Remotely captured terrestrial and aerial LiDAR and photogrammetric data were interrogated using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to provide a framework for subsequent analysis, interpretation and validation. The remote sensing mapping data was used to define the rock mass discontinuity network of the area and to differentiate between major and minor geological structures controlling the evolution of the North Coast of Cornwall. Kinematic instability maps generated from aerial LiDAR data using GIS techniques and results from structural and engineering geological surveys are presented. With this method, it was possible to highlight the types of kinematic failure mechanism that may generate coastal landslides and highlight areas that are more susceptible to instability or increased risk of future instability. Multi-temporal aerial LiDAR data and orthophotos were also studied using GIS techniques to locate recent landslide failures, validate the results obtained from the kinematic instability maps through site observations and provide improved understanding of the factors controlling the coastal geomorphology. The approach adopted is not only useful for academic research, but also for local authorities and consultancy's when assessing the likely risks of coastal instability.
ABO Blood Group and Dementia Risk--A Scandinavian Record-Linkage Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Senthil K Vasan

Full Text Available Dementia includes a group of neuro-degenerative disorders characterized by varying degrees of cognitive impairment. Recent data indicates that blood group AB is associated with impaired cognition in elderly patients. To date there are no large-scale studies that have examined the relationship between ABO blood group and dementia-related disorders in detail.We used data from the SCANDAT2 database that contains information on over 1.6 million blood donors from 1968 in Sweden and 1981 from Denmark. The database was linked with health outcomes data from nationwide patient and cause of death registers to investigate the relationship between blood groups and risk of different types of dementia. The incident rate ratios were estimated using log-linear Poisson regression models.Among 1,598,294 donors followed over 24 million person-years of observation we ascertained 3,615 cases of Alzheimer's disease, 1,842 cases of vascular dementia, and 9,091 cases of unspecified dementia. Overall, our study showed no association between ABO blood group and risk of Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia or unspecified dementia. This was also true when analyses were restricted to donors aged 70 years or older except for a slight, but significantly decreased risk of all dementia combined in subjects with blood group A (IRR, 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88-0.98, compared to those with blood group O.Our results provide no evidence that ABO blood group influences the risk of dementia.
German risk study of PWR's

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kafka, P.

1983-01-01

In this paper, first the status of German Risk Study is presented briefly. Specific reference is made to the investigations in Phase B of the study and related programs. Significant elements involved in the risk assessment for NPPs, mainly in the field of system and structural reliability analyses are mentioned. In particular, important outcomes and limiting facts in the process of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to evaluate the safety standard and above all the influence of individual components or subsystems on core melt frequency are discussed. (orig.)
Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erin E Conners

Full Text Available Increasingly, 'place', including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC, whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1 Participatory mapping; 2 Quantitative interviews; 3 Sex work venue field observation; 4 Time-location-activity diaries; 5 In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions.
Groundwater-based water wells characterization from Guinea Bissau (Western Africa): A risk evaluation for the local population.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrante, Margherita; Signorelli, Salvatore Santo; Ferlito, Santina Letizia; Grasso, Alfina; Dimartino, Angela; Copat, Chiara

2018-04-01

The study conducted in two regions of Guinea Bissau, Oio and Cacheu, focusing on the characterization of the groundwater supplies sampled during the dry season and their associated risks for human health. Twenty samples were collected in wells located nearby pit latrines. In situ analyses were conducted with Semi-quantitative test strips for the determination of turbidity, pH, chloride, carbonate, sulfites, ammonium, nitrite and nitrate. The analysis of metals was performed by an ICP-MS Elan DRC-e and an ICP-OES Optima 8000. The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) was applied to evaluate the risk of developing chronic systemic effects derived from exposure to metals. Values of concern of turbidity ammonium, and pH values were lower than the normal range for drinking water in most samples. From both regions, Fe and Al were occasionally found with values higher than the international thresholds fixed by the World Health Organization and by the European Commission for drinking water, while, only in one sample from Cacheu region Pb was found significantly above these limits. THQs resulted next to the level of risk (1) for the highest values found of Al, As, Fe and Mn. Of great concern is the resident risk obtained from a well water of Cacheu for the highest value of Pb (96.8μg/L), because the values of the resident risk found of 1 and 0.7 for child and adults respectively. The results obtained highlighted a close correlation between the chemistry of water and sediment and a correlation with the proximity of the water supplies with the latrines. This study evidenced the potential toxicity of the water supplies for the local populations and the risk of developing chronic systemic effects due to some physico-chemical parameters, the importance of functioning water pipeline system, the importance of maintaining adequate distance between latrines and drinking water access. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The impact of risk studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansson, B.

The report is a summary of the reports of various subprojects on nuclear safety. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the role and usefulness of major risk studies in societal opinion forming and decision making processes. The primary research material consisted in seven major risk studies, three of which were concerned with radioactive waste handling, two with reactor safety and two with comparative studies of various sources of energy. Special attention was given to the following four aspects: a) the way in which the studies were interpreted b)the extent to which these studies have clarified the risks they analyse c) the extent to which these studies have narrowed the scientific debate d) the degree to which these studies have actually influenced safety measures and regulatory policy. The picture which emerges is one of success in relation to the effects on the nuclear establishment and largely a failure as attempts at settling disputes and informing the public. (G.B.)
Characterization of the ecological interactions of Roundup Ready 2 Yield® soybean, MON 89788, for use in ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Horak, Michael J; Rosenbaum, Eric W; Phillips, Samuel L; Kendrick, Daniel L; Carson, David; Clark, Pete L; Nickson, Thomas E

2015-01-01

As part of an ecological risk assessment, Roundup Ready 2 Yield® soybean (MON 89788) was compared to a conventional control soybean variety, A3244, for disease and arthropod damage, plant response to abiotic stress and cold, effects on succeeding plant growth (allelopathic effects), plant response to a bacterial symbiont, and effects on the ability of seed to survive and volunteer in a subsequent growing season. Statistically significant differences between MON 89788 and A3244 were considered in the context of the genetic variation known to occur in soybean and were assessed for their potential impact on plant pest (weed) potential and adverse environmental impact. The results of these studies revealed no effects of the genetic modification that would result in increased pest potential or adverse environmental impact of MON 89788 compared with A3244. This paper illustrates how such characterization studies conducted in a range of environments where the crop is grown are used in an ecological risk assessment of the genetically modified (GM) crop. Furthermore, risk assessors and decision makers use this information when deciding whether to approve a GM crop for cultivation in-or grain import into-their country.
Fuzzy risk matrix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markowski, Adam S.; Mannan, M. Sam

2008-01-01

A risk matrix is a mechanism to characterize and rank process risks that are typically identified through one or more multifunctional reviews (e.g., process hazard analysis, audits, or incident investigation). This paper describes a procedure for developing a fuzzy risk matrix that may be used for emerging fuzzy logic applications in different safety analyses (e.g., LOPA). The fuzzification of frequency and severity of the consequences of the incident scenario are described which are basic inputs for fuzzy risk matrix. Subsequently using different design of risk matrix, fuzzy rules are established enabling the development of fuzzy risk matrices. Three types of fuzzy risk matrix have been developed (low-cost, standard, and high-cost), and using a distillation column case study, the effect of the design on final defuzzified risk index is demonstrated
Emerging Technological Risk Underpinning the Risk of Technology Innovation

CERN Document Server

Anderson, Stuart

2012-01-01

Classes of socio-technical hazards allow a characterization of the risk in technology innovation and clarify the mechanisms underpinning emergent technological risk. Emerging Technological Risk provides an interdisciplinary account of risk in socio-technical systems including hazards which highlight: · How technological risk crosses organizational boundaries, · How technological trajectories and evolution develop from resolving tensions emerging between social aspects of organisations and technologies and · How social behaviour shapes, and is shaped by, technology. Addressing an audience from a range of academic and professional backgrounds, Emerging Technological Risk is a key source for those who wish to benefit from a detail and methodical exposure to multiple perspectives on technological risk. By providing a synthesis of recent work on risk that captures the complex mechanisms that characterize the emergence of risk in technology innovation, Emerging Tec...
Study of International Standards of Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dykan Volodymyr L.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of the article lies in the study of existing international standards of risk management, an important factor of improvement of risk management in domestic corporations and enterprises and development of recommendations on application of international standards in Ukraine, in particular, within the framework of building corporate systems of risk management. The conducted study shows that approaches on organisation of the process of risk management, used in standards of risk management, are of general character and differ with the degree of detailing. Their undoubted value in development of risk management in Ukraine is identification of a general direction of building corporate systems of risk management in practice. The said approaches at the national and corporate levels of standardisation in Ukraine within the framework of building corporate systems of risk management would allow improvement of risk management in corporations and enterprises. The prospect of further studies of domestic specialists in the field of risk management is development of the domestic standard of risk management with consideration of modern domestic specific features of development of risk management in Ukraine and leading foreign experience.
Fracture risk in hepatitis C virus infected persons: results from the DANVIR cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Ann-Brit Eg; Omland, Lars Haukali; Krarup, Henrik; Obel, Niels

2014-07-01

The association between Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infection and fracture risk is not well characterized. We compared fracture risk between HCV-seropositive (HCV-exposed) patients and the general population and between patients with cleared and chronic HCV-infection. Outcome measures were time to first fracture at any site, time to first low-energy and first non-low-energy (other) fracture in 12,013 HCV-exposed patients from the DANVIR cohort compared with a general population control cohort (n=60,065) matched by sex and age. Within DANVIR, 4500 patients with chronic HCV-infection and 2656 patients with cleared HCV-infection were studied. Compared with population controls, HCV-exposed patients had increased overall risk of fracture [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 2.15, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.03-2.28], increased risk of low-energy fracture (aIRR 2.13, 95% CI: 1.93-2.35) and of other fracture (aIRR 2.18, 95% CI: 2.02-2.34). Compared with cleared HCV-infection, chronic HCV-infection was not associated with increased risk of fracture at any site (aIRR 1.08, 95% CI: 0.97-1.20), or other fracture (aIRR 1.04, 95% CI: 0.91-1.19). The aIRR for low-energy fracture was 1.20 (95% CI: 0.99-1.44). HCV-exposed patients had increased risk of all fracture types. In contrast, overall risk of fracture did not differ between patients with chronic vs. cleared HCV-infection, although chronic HCV-infection might be associated with a small excess risk of low-energy fractures. Our study suggests that fracture risk in HCV-infected patients is multi-factorial and mainly determined by lifestyle-related factors associated with HCV-exposure. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Brain structure in women at risk of postpartum psychosis: an MRI study.

Science.gov (United States)

Fusté, Montserrat; Pauls, Astrid; Worker, Amanda; Reinders, Antje A T S; Simmons, Andrew; Williams, Steven C R; Haro, Josep M; Hazelgrove, Kate; Pawlby, Susan; Conroy, Susan; Vecchio, Costanza; Seneviratne, Gertrude; Pariante, Carmine M; Mehta, Mitul A; Dazzan, Paola

2017-12-18

Postpartum psychosis (PP) is the most severe psychiatric disorder associated with childbirth. The risk of PP is very high in women with a history of bipolar affective disorder or schizoaffective disorder. However, the neurobiological basis of PP remains poorly understood and no study has evaluated brain structure in women at risk of, or with, PP. We performed a cross-sectional study of 256 women at risk of PP and 21 healthy controls (HC) in the same postpartum period. Among women at risk, 11 who developed a recent episode of PP (PPE) (n = 2 with lifetime bipolar disorder; n = 9 psychotic disorder not otherwise specified) and 15 at risk women who did not develop an episode of PP (NPPE) (n = 10 with lifetime bipolar disorder; n = 1 with schizoaffective disorder; n = 1 with a history of PP in first-degree family member; n = 3 with previous PP). We obtained T1-weighted MRI scans at 3T and examined regional gray matter volumes with voxel-based morphometry and cortical thickness and surface area with Freesurfer. Women with PPE showed smaller anterior cingulate gyrus, superior temporal gyrus and parahippocampal gyrus compared to NPPE women. These regions also showed decreased surface area. Moreover, the NPPE group showed a larger superior and inferior frontal gyrus volume than the HC. These results should be interpreted with caution, as there were between-group differences in terms of duration of illness and interval between delivery and MRI acquisition. Nevertheless, these are the first findings to suggest that MRI can provide information on brain morphology that characterize those women at risk of PP more likely to develop an episode after childbirth.

What is the purpose of risk studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birkhofer, A.

1986-01-01

Over the past few years, more or less comprehensive risk analyses have been carried out for numerous nuclear power plants, especially in the USA. The first risk studies conducted, especially the Rasmussen Study and the 'German Risk Study,' investigated sequences of accidents up to their environmental impacts. Risk studies today are focused mostly on assessments of technical safety, which is why they are extended only as far as the determination of core meltdown frequencies or radionuclide releases. Studies of this type are also called probabilistic safety analyses. (orig.) [de
Application of value of information of tank waste characterization: A new paradigm for defining tank waste characterization requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fassbender, L.L.; Brewster, M.E.; Brothers, A.J.

1996-11-01

This report presents the rationale for adopting a recommended characterization strategy that uses a risk-based decision-making framework for managing the Tank Waste Characterization program at Hanford. The risk-management/value-of-information (VOI) strategy that is illustrated explicitly links each information-gathering activity to its cost and provides a mechanism to ensure that characterization funds are spent where they can produce the largest reduction in risk. The approach was developed by tailoring well-known decision analysis techniques to specific tank waste characterization applications. This report illustrates how VOI calculations are performed and demonstrates that the VOI approach can definitely be used for real Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) characterization problems
Application of value of information of tank waste characterization: A new paradigm for defining tank waste characterization requirements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fassbender, L.L.; Brewster, M.E.; Brothers, A.J. [and others

1996-11-01

This report presents the rationale for adopting a recommended characterization strategy that uses a risk-based decision-making framework for managing the Tank Waste Characterization program at Hanford. The risk-management/value-of-information (VOI) strategy that is illustrated explicitly links each information-gathering activity to its cost and provides a mechanism to ensure that characterization funds are spent where they can produce the largest reduction in risk. The approach was developed by tailoring well-known decision analysis techniques to specific tank waste characterization applications. This report illustrates how VOI calculations are performed and demonstrates that the VOI approach can definitely be used for real Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) characterization problems.
Probabilistic relationships in acceptable risk studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benjamin, J.R.

1977-01-01

Acceptable risk studies involve uncertainties in future events; consequences and associated values, the acceptability levels, and the future decision environment. Probabilistic procedures afford the basic analytical tool to study the influence of each of these parameters on the acceptable risk decision, including their interrelationships, and combinations. A series of examples are presented in the paper in increasing complexity to illustrate the principles involved and to quantify the relationships to the acceptable risk decision. The basic objective of such studies is to broaden the scientific basis of acceptable risk decision making. It is shown that rationality and consistency in decision making is facilitated by such studies and that rather simple relationships exist in many situations of interest. The variation in criteria associated with an increase in the state of knowledge or change in the level of acceptability is also discussed. (Auth.)
Probabilistic relationships in acceptable risk studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benjamin, J.R.

1977-01-01

Acceptable risk studies involve uncertainties in future events: consequences and associated values, the acceptability levels, and the future decision environment. Probabilistic procedures afford the basic analytical tool to study the influence of each of these parameters on the acceptable risk decision, including their interrelationships, and combinations. A series of examples are presented in the paper in increasing complexity to illustrate the principles involved and to quantify the relationships to the acceptable risk decision. The basic objective of such studies is to broaden the scientific basis of acceptable risk decision making. It is shown that rationality and consistency in decision making is facilitated by such studies and that rather simple relationships exist in many situations of interest. The variation in criteria associated with an increase in the state of knowledge or change in the level of acceptability is also discussed
Assessing the joint impact of DNAPL source-zone behavior and degradation products on the probabilistic characterization of human health risk

Science.gov (United States)

Henri, Christopher V.; Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; de Barros, Felipe P. J.

2016-02-01

The release of industrial contaminants into the subsurface has led to a rapid degradation of groundwater resources. Contamination caused by Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquids (DNAPLs) is particularly severe owing to their limited solubility, slow dissolution and in many cases high toxicity. A greater insight into how the DNAPL source zone behavior and the contaminant release towards the aquifer impact human health risk is crucial for an appropriate risk management. Risk analysis is further complicated by the uncertainty in aquifer properties and contaminant conditions. This study focuses on the impact of the DNAPL release mode on the human health risk propagation along the aquifer under uncertain conditions. Contaminant concentrations released from the source zone are described using a screening approach with a set of parameters representing several scenarios of DNAPL architecture. The uncertainty in the hydraulic properties is systematically accounted for by high-resolution Monte Carlo simulations. We simulate the release and the transport of the chlorinated solvent perchloroethylene and its carcinogenic degradation products in randomly heterogeneous porous media. The human health risk posed by the chemical mixture of these contaminants is characterized by the low-order statistics and the probability density function of common risk metrics. We show that the zone of high risk (hot spot) is independent of the DNAPL mass release mode, and that the risk amplitude is mostly controlled by heterogeneities and by the source zone architecture. The risk is lower and less uncertain when the source zone is formed mostly by ganglia than by pools. We also illustrate how the source zone efficiency (intensity of the water flux crossing the source zone) affects the risk posed by an exposure to the chemical mixture. Results display that high source zone efficiencies are counter-intuitively beneficial, decreasing the risk because of a reduction in the time available for the production
Advancing the Contribution of Occupational Epidemiology to Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vlaanderen, J.J.

2011-01-01

The identification and quantification of risk factors that are characterized by low exposure levels, moderately increased risks, and unspecific exposure-disease relations is a major challenge facing risk assessment today. Occupational epidemiological studies can play a role in addressing this
Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

1989-01-01

The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties
Seismic risk analyses in the German Risk Study, phase B

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosser, D.; Liemersdorf, H.

1991-01-01

The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants, Phase B. First simplified analyses in Phase A of the study allowed only a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in Phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in Phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behaviour and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications and model uncertainties. Some results for the PWR reference plant are given. (orig.)
Risk characterization of maternal and neonatal tetanus in view of tetanus vaccination campaigns in pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, E.A.; Rana, M.S.; Iqbal, M.T.; Farrukh, S.

2015-01-01

Pakistan is one of the remaining 24 countries which have not yet achieved Maternal and Neonatal Tetanus Elimination (MNTE). The country adopted high-risk approach for 56 out of 119 districts with country-wide Tetanus Toxoid (TT) provision in Routine Immunization (RI) during early 2000-2003. The TT's mass campaigns could only cover 13% of high risk districts for 2009-2011, and mostly for the Punjab province. To achieve MNT elimination, the country needs risk mapping for cost-effective intervention. Methods: We used both the quantitative and qualitative methods to conduct risk characterization. All the three available data sets (Reported EPI coverage data, PDHS 2012-13, and PSLM 2010-11) were assessed. A mix of core and surrogate indicators for risk categorization was used through ranking and scoring the aggregated data and considering the past tetanus campaigns coverage. Tetanus Toxoid (TT2+) coverage of pregnant women and delivery in health facility, both received more weightage in scoring. We based the higher and lower cuts off points for each indicator on data ranges. The districts with higher scores, i.e., 10.5 and above were ranked good followed by medium (5.5-10.4) and low performing (less than 5.5). Consultations with the national and provincial field officers were utilized to understand the local context. Results: In Pakistan, there are 139 districts out of which, 60 are the high risk districts for tetanus. Highest percentage is for Baluchistan (83%) followed by Sindh (52%), and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (40%). Most of the Punjab is at medium risk (55%), followed by KP (52%), and Sindh (39%). Conclusion: Pakistan is at medium to high risk of MNT with a great variation at the sub-national level. Campaigns aiming to these districts may bring the country closer to MNT elimination target. (author)
Characterization and risk factors for pressure ulcers in the hospitalized elderly

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chrystiany Plácido de Brito Vieira

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to identify the socio-demographic and clinical characteristics; obtain the risk factors for pressure ulcers identified in hospitalized senior citizens. This is a prospective, descriptive, and quantitative study. The sample consisted of 215 hospitalized elderly people in a public hospital in Teresina, PI, Brazil, in orthopedic, neurological, medical, and surgical clinics, and Intensive Care Units from November/2012 to February/2013. Data collection happened through interviews, physical examinations, and medical records. The average age was 71.8 years old, most patients were female (55.3%, with low education, and married. The majority were taken into orthopedics (42.3%. For the length of hospital stay, the average was of 12.4 days. The most prevalent risk factors were hypertension, use of analgesics, antihypertensives, and anticoagulants. Eighty-seven senior citizens (40.5% presented low risk. One highlights the importance of nursing care in the prevention and assessment of risk for pressure ulcers in order to reduce its incidence in hospitals.
Splenectomy is associated with a higher risk for venous thromboembolism: A prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Debora H; Barmparas, Galinos; Fierro, Nicole; Sun, Beatrice J; Ashrafian, Sogol; Li, Tong; Ley, Eric J

2015-12-01

Thrombocytosis following splenectomy is a common occurrence. Whether this thrombocytosis leads to a higher risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains unclear. This investigation aimed to determine if splenectomy increases the risk for VTE. This was a prospective study conducted in the SICU between 1/2011 and 11/2013 investigating the VTE risk in patients undergoing a splenectomy compared with those undergoing any other abdominal procedure. In total 2503 patients were admitted to the SICU: 37 (2%) after a splenectomy and 638 (26%) after any other abdominal surgery. Splenectomy patients had a higher incidence of VTE compared to patients undergoing any other abdominal procedure (29.7% vs. 12.1%, p splenectomy was associated with a higher adjusted risk for VTE compared to the no-splenectomy group (AOR [95% CI]: 2.6 [1.2, 5.9], p = 0.02). Reactive thrombocytosis did not predict the development of VTE. Splenectomy increases the risk for VTE, however reactive thrombocytosis is not associated with this higher incidence. Further investigations are required to characterize the pathophysiologic mechanisms of VTE development following splenectomy. Copyright © 2015 IJS Publishing Group Limited. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

1993-09-01

This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km 2 (570-mi 2 ) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation
Identification and characterization of CDH1 germline variants in sporadic gastric cancer patients and in individuals at risk of gastric cancer.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marica Garziera

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To screen and characterize germline variants for E-cadherin (CDH1 in non-hereditary gastric cancer (GC patients and in subjects at risk of GC. METHODS: 59 GCs, 59 first degree relatives (FDRs of GC, 20 autoimmune metaplastic atrophic gastritis (AMAGs and 52 blood donors (BDs were analyzed for CDH1 by direct sequencing, structural modelling and bioinformatics. Functional impact on splicing was assessed for intronic mutations. E-cadherin/β-catenin immunohistochemical staining and E-cadherin mRNA quantification using RT-PCR were performed. RESULTS: In GCs, 4 missense variants (p.G274S; p.A298T; p.T470I; p.A592T, 1 mutation in the 5'UTR (-71C>G and 1 mutation in the intronic IVS12 (c.1937-13T>C region were found. First pathogenic effect of p.A298T mutation was predicted by protein 3D modelling. The novel p.G274S mutation showed a no clear functional significance. Moreover, first, intronic IVS12 (c.1937-13T>C mutation was demonstrated to lead to an aberrant CDH1 transcript with exon 11 deletion. This mutation was found in 2 GCs and in 1 BD. In FDRs, we identified 4 variants: the polymorphic (p.A592T and 3 mutations in untranslated regions with unidentified functional role except for the 5'UTR (-54G>C that had been found to decrease CDH1 transcription. In AMAGs, we detected 2 alterations: 1 missense (p.A592T and 1 novel variant (IVS1 (c.48+7C>T without effect on CDH1 splicing. Several silent and polymorphic substitutions were found in all the groups studied. CONCLUSIONS: Overall our study improves upon the current characterization of CDH1 mutations and their functional role in GC and in individuals at risk of GC. Mutations found in untranslated regions and data on splicing effects deserve a particular attention like associated with a reduced E-cadherin amount. The utility of CDH1 screening, in addition to the identification of other risk factors, could be useful for the early detection of GC in subjects at risk (i.e. FDRs and AMAGs, and
Cigarette smoking and risk of ovarian cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faber, Mette T; Kjær, Susanne K; Dehlendorff, Christian

2013-01-01

The majority of previous studies have observed an increased risk of mucinous ovarian tumors associated with cigarette smoking, but the association with other histological types is unclear. In a large pooled analysis, we examined the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer associated with multiple...... measures of cigarette smoking with a focus on characterizing risks according to tumor behavior and histology....
Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu Guanquan; Wang Jinhui

2012-01-01

Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.
Gender-specific suicide risk factors: a case-control study of individuals with major depressive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalca, Ioana Mioara; McGirr, Alexander; Renaud, Johanne; Turecki, Gustavo

2013-12-01

Available information on risk for suicide completion in females is limited and often extrapolated from studies conducted in males. However, the validity of extending to females risk factors identified among male suicide cases is unclear. In this study, we aimed to investigate clinical and behavioral risk factors for suicide among female depressed patients and compare them to similar factors among male depressed patients. We identified 201 suicide completers (160 male and 41 female) who died during an episode of major depressive disorder (MDD). Cases were compared to 127 living patients with MDD (88 male and 39 female). All subjects were characterized for Axis I and II diagnoses using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders and Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis II Personality Disorders according to the DSM-IV, as well as behavioral and temperament dimensions using proxy-based interviews. The primary outcome was measures of impulsive and impulsive-aggressive behaviors. Compared to controls, male, but not female suicide cases had higher levels of impulsive aggression (P suicide cases from controls. However, nonimpulsive aggression and impulsive aggression were correlated constructs in males (r = 0.297; P suicide, such as alcohol and substance dependence, cluster B disorders, and elevated hostility and aggression, were replicated in the pooled-sex analyses, and, though not statistically significant in discriminating between suicide cases and controls by gender, maintained strong group differences. Males and females share many risk factors for suicide in MDD, yet alcohol dependence is much more specific though less sensitive among depressed females. Nonimpulsive aggression is part of a diathesis for suicide in females, which is distinct from the well-characterized impulsive aggression that is consistently reported in a portion of male suicide cases. © Copyright 2013 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.
Children's exposure to harmful elements in toys and low-cost jewelry: Characterizing risks and developing a comprehensive approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guney, Mert; Zagury, Gerald J.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Risk for children up to 3 years-old was characterized considering oral exposure. • Saliva mobilization, ingestion of parts and of scraped-off material were considered. • Ingestion of parts caused hazard index (HI) values >>for Cd, Ni, and Pb exposure. • HI were lower (but > for saliva mobilization and 1, up to 75, 5.8, and 43, respectively). HI for ingestion of scraped-off material scenario was always 1 in three samples (two for Cd, one for Ni). Risk characterization identified different potentially hazardous items compared to United States, Canadian, and European Union approaches. A comprehensive approach was also developed to deal with complexity and drawbacks caused by various toy/jewelry definitions, test methods, exposure scenarios, and elements considered in different regulatory approaches. It includes bioaccessible limits for eight priority elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Sb). Research is recommended on metals bioaccessibility determination in toys/jewelry, in vitro bioaccessibility test development, estimation of material ingestion rates and frequency, presence of hexavalent Cr and organic Sn, and assessment of prolonged exposure to MJ
Characterizing trabecular bone structure for assessing vertebral fracture risk on volumetric quantitative computed tomography

Science.gov (United States)

Nagarajan, Mahesh B.; Checefsky, Walter A.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Tsai, Halley; Wang, Xixi; Hobbs, Susan K.; Bauer, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas; Wismüller, Axel

2015-03-01

While the proximal femur is preferred for measuring bone mineral density (BMD) in fracture risk estimation, the introduction of volumetric quantitative computed tomography has revealed stronger associations between BMD and spinal fracture status. In this study, we propose to capture properties of trabecular bone structure in spinal vertebrae with advanced second-order statistical features for purposes of fracture risk assessment. For this purpose, axial multi-detector CT (MDCT) images were acquired from 28 spinal vertebrae specimens using a whole-body 256-row CT scanner with a dedicated calibration phantom. A semi-automated method was used to annotate the trabecular compartment in the central vertebral slice with a circular region of interest (ROI) to exclude cortical bone; pixels within were converted to values indicative of BMD. Six second-order statistical features derived from gray-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) and the mean BMD within the ROI were then extracted and used in conjunction with a generalized radial basis functions (GRBF) neural network to predict the failure load of the specimens; true failure load was measured through biomechanical testing. Prediction performance was evaluated with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) metric. The best prediction performance was observed with GLCM feature `correlation' (RMSE = 1.02 ± 0.18), which significantly outperformed all other GLCM features (p biomechanical strength prediction in spinal vertebrae can be significantly improved through characterization of trabecular bone structure with GLCM-derived texture features.
Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

1999-11-01

For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

A developmental study of heavy episodic drinking among college students: the role of psychosocial and behavioral protective and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Jessor, Richard; Costa, Frances M; Krueger, Patrick M; Turbin, Mark S

2006-01-01

A theory-based protection/risk model was applied to explain variation in college students' heavy episodic drinking. Key aims were (1) to establish that psychosocial and behavioral protective factors and risk factors can account for cross-sectional and developmental variation in heavy episodic drinking, and (2) to examine whether protection moderates the impact of risk on heavy episodic drinking. Random- and fixed-effects maximum likelihood regression analyses were used to examine data from a three-wave longitudinal study. Data were collected in fall of 2002, spring of 2003, and spring of 2004 from college students (N=975; 548 men) who were first-semester freshmen at Wave 1. Psychosocial and behavioral protective and risk factors accounted for substantial variation in college-student heavy episodic drinking, and protection moderated the impact of risk. Findings held for both genders and were consistent across the three separate waves of data. Key predictors of heavy episodic drinking were social and individual controls protection (e.g., parental sanctions for transgression and attitudinal intolerance of deviance, respectively); models risk (peer models for substance use); behavioral protection (attendance at religious services); and behavioral risk (cigarette smoking and marijuana use). Changes in controls protection, models risk, and opportunity risk were associated with change in heavy episodic drinking. An explanatory model based on both psychosocial and behavioral protective and risk factors was effective in accounting for variation in college-student heavy episodic drinking. A useful heuristic was demonstrated through the articulation of models, controls, support, opportunity, and vulnerability to characterize the social context, and of controls, vulnerability, and other behaviors to characterize individuals.
Characterizing the risk assessment of heavy metals and sampling uncertainty analysis in paddy field by geostatistics and GIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xingmei; Wu Jianjun; Xu Jianming

2006-01-01

For many practical problems in environmental management, information about soil heavy metals, relative to threshold values that may be of practical importance is needed at unsampled sites. The Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou (HJH) Plain has always been one of the most important rice production areas in Zhejiang province, China, and the soil heavy metal concentration is directly related to the crop quality and ultimately the health of people. Four hundred and fifty soil samples were selected in topsoil in HJH Plain to characterize the spatial variability of Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr and Cd. Ordinary kriging and lognormal kriging were carried out to map the spatial patterns of heavy metals and disjunctive kriging was used to quantify the probability of heavy metal concentrations higher than their guide value. Cokriging method was used to minimize the sampling density for Cu, Zn and Cr. The results of this study could give insight into risk assessment of environmental pollution and decision-making for agriculture. - Probability maps gave insight into risk assesment of environmental metals in a rice paddy field
Coronary Plaque Characterization in Psoriasis Reveals High-Risk Features That Improve After Treatment in a Prospective Observational Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lerman, Joseph B; Joshi, Aditya A; Chaturvedi, Abhishek; Aberra, Tsion M; Dey, Amit K; Rodante, Justin A; Salahuddin, Taufiq; Chung, Jonathan H; Rana, Anshuma; Teague, Heather L; Wu, Jashin J; Playford, Martin P; Lockshin, Benjamin A; Chen, Marcus Y; Sandfort, Veit; Bluemke, David A; Mehta, Nehal N

2017-07-18

Psoriasis, a chronic inflammatory disease associated with an accelerated risk of myocardial infarction, provides an ideal human model to study inflammatory atherogenesis in vivo. We hypothesized that the increased cardiovascular risk observed in psoriasis would be partially attributable to an elevated subclinical coronary artery disease burden composed of noncalcified plaques with high-risk features. However, inadequate efforts have been made to directly measure coronary artery disease in this vulnerable population. As such, we sought to compare total coronary plaque burden and noncalcified coronary plaque burden (NCB) and high-risk plaque (HRP) prevalence between patients with psoriasis (n=105), patients with hyperlipidemia eligible for statin therapy under National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines (n=100) who were ≈10 years older, and healthy volunteers without psoriasis (n=25). Patients underwent coronary computed-tomography angiography for total coronary plaque burden and NCB quantification and HRP identification, defined as low attenuation (1.10), and spotty calcification. A consecutive sample of the first 50 patients with psoriasis was scanned again 1 year after therapy. Despite being younger and at lower traditional risk than patients with hyperlipidemia, patients with psoriasis had increased NCB (mean±SD: 1.18±0.33 versus 1.11±0.32, P =0.02) and similar HRP prevalence ( P =0.58). Furthermore, compared to healthy volunteers, patients with psoriasis had increased total coronary plaque burden (1.22±0.31 versus 1.04±0.22, P =0.001), NCB (1.18±0.33 versus 1.03±0.21, P =0.004), and HRP prevalence beyond traditional risk (odds ratio, 6.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-31.7; P =0.03). Last, among patients with psoriasis followed for 1 year, improvement in psoriasis severity was associated with improvement in total coronary plaque burden (β=0.45, 0.23-0.67; P psoriasis had greater NCB and increased HRP prevalence than
Hyperthyroidism and risk for bipolar disorders: a nationwide population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Li-Yu; Shen, Cheng-Che; Hu, Yu-Wen; Chen, Mu-Hong; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Chiang, Huey-Ling; Yeh, Chiu-Mei; Wang, Wei-Shu; Chen, Pan-Ming; Hu, Tsung-Ming; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Su, Tung-Ping; Liu, Chia-Jen

2013-01-01

Thyroid disorders have long been associated with psychiatric illness, often with symptoms suggestive of mood disorders. The most common clinical features associated with hyperthyroidism are anxiety and depression. The risk of bipolar disorders, especially bipolar mania, among patients with thyroid disorders has not been well characterized. We explored the relationship of hyperthyroidism and the subsequent development of bipolar disorders, and examined the risk factors for bipolar disorders in patients with hyperthyroidism. We identified patients who were diagnosed with hyperthyroidism between 2000 and 2010 in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A comparison cohort without hyperthyroidism was matched based on age, sex, and comorbidities. The occurrence of bipolar disorders was evaluated in both cohorts based on diagnosis and the use of mood stabilizer drugs. The hyperthyroidism cohort consisted of 21, 574 patients, and the comparison cohort consisted of 21, 574 matched control patients without hyperthyroidism. The incidence of bipolar disorders (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 2.31, 95% CI 1.80-2.99, Phyperthyroidism patients than the control patients. Multivariate, matched regression models showed that women (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.34-3.05, P = .001), patients with alcohol use disorders (HR 3.03, 95% CI 1.58-5.79, P = .001), and those with asthma (HR 1.70, 95% CI 1.18-2.43, P = .004) were independent risk factors for the development of bipolar disorders in hyperthyroidism patients. Although a possibility that the diagnosis of bipolar disorders in this study actually includes "bipolar disorders due to hyperthyroidism" cannot be excluded, this study suggests that hyperthyroidism may increase the risk of developing bipolar disorders.
Hyperthyroidism and Risk for Bipolar Disorders: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Yu-Wen; Chen, Mu-Hong; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Chiang, Huey-Ling; Yeh, Chiu-Mei; Wang, Wei-Shu; Chen, Pan-Ming; Hu, Tsung-Ming; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Su, Tung-Ping; Liu, Chia-Jen

2013-01-01

Background Thyroid disorders have long been associated with psychiatric illness, often with symptoms suggestive of mood disorders. The most common clinical features associated with hyperthyroidism are anxiety and depression. The risk of bipolar disorders, especially bipolar mania, among patients with thyroid disorders has not been well characterized. Objective We explored the relationship of hyperthyroidism and the subsequent development of bipolar disorders, and examined the risk factors for bipolar disorders in patients with hyperthyroidism. Methods We identified patients who were diagnosed with hyperthyroidism between 2000 and 2010 in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A comparison cohort without hyperthyroidism was matched based on age, sex, and comorbidities. The occurrence of bipolar disorders was evaluated in both cohorts based on diagnosis and the use of mood stabilizer drugs. Results The hyperthyroidism cohort consisted of 21, 574 patients, and the comparison cohort consisted of 21, 574 matched control patients without hyperthyroidism. The incidence of bipolar disorders (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 2.31, 95% CI 1.80–2.99, Phyperthyroidism patients than the control patients. Multivariate, matched regression models showed that women (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.34–3.05, P = .001), patients with alcohol use disorders (HR 3.03, 95% CI 1.58–5.79, P = .001), and those with asthma (HR 1.70, 95% CI 1.18–2.43, P = .004) were independent risk factors for the development of bipolar disorders in hyperthyroidism patients. Conclusions Although a possibility that the diagnosis of bipolar disorders in this study actually includes "bipolar disorders due to hyperthyroidism" cannot be excluded, this study suggests that hyperthyroidism may increase the risk of developing bipolar disorders. PMID:24023669
Application of toxicogenomics in hepatic systems toxicology for risk assessment: Acetaminophen as a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kienhuis, Anne S.; Bessems, Jos G.M.; Pennings, Jeroen L.A.; Driessen, Marja; Luijten, Mirjam; Delft, Joost H.M. van

2011-01-01

Hepatic systems toxicology is the integrative analysis of toxicogenomic technologies, e.g., transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics, in combination with traditional toxicology measures to improve the understanding of mechanisms of hepatotoxic action. Hepatic toxicology studies that have employed toxicogenomic technologies to date have already provided a proof of principle for the value of hepatic systems toxicology in hazard identification. In the present review, acetaminophen is used as a model compound to discuss the application of toxicogenomics in hepatic systems toxicology for its potential role in the risk assessment process, to progress from hazard identification towards hazard characterization. The toxicogenomics-based parallelogram is used to identify current achievements and limitations of acetaminophen toxicogenomic in vivo and in vitro studies for in vitro-to-in vivo and interspecies comparisons, with the ultimate aim to extrapolate animal studies to humans in vivo. This article provides a model for comparison of more species and more in vitro models enhancing the robustness of common toxicogenomic responses and their relevance to human risk assessment. To progress to quantitative dose-response analysis needed for hazard characterization, in hepatic systems toxicology studies, generation of toxicogenomic data of multiple doses/concentrations and time points is required. Newly developed bioinformatics tools for quantitative analysis of toxicogenomic data can aid in the elucidation of dose-responsive effects. The challenge herein is to assess which toxicogenomic responses are relevant for induction of the apical effect and whether perturbations are sufficient for the induction of downstream events, eventually causing toxicity.
The Pesticide Risk Beliefs Inventory: A Quantitative Instrument for the Assessment of Beliefs about Pesticide Risks

OpenAIRE

LePrevost, Catherine E.; Blanchard, Margaret R.; Cope, W. Gregory

2011-01-01

Recent media attention has focused on the risks that agricultural pesticides pose to the environment and human health; thus, these topics provide focal areas for scientists and science educators to enhance public understanding of basic toxicology concepts. This study details the development of a quantitative inventory to gauge pesticide risk beliefs. The goal of the inventory was to characterize misconceptions and knowledge gaps, as well as expert-like beliefs, concerning pesticide risk. This...
Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Risk management executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

1994-02-01

This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This document is the first in a four volume series that comprise the risk management study for the retired, surplus facilities. Volume 2 is the risk evaluation work procedure; volume 3 provides the results for the risk evaluation; and volume 4 is the risk-reduction cost comparison
Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data
Significant interarm blood pressure difference predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: CoCoNet study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Su-A; Kim, Jang Young; Park, Jeong Bae

2016-06-01

There has been a rising interest in interarm blood pressure difference (IAD), due to its relationship with peripheral arterial disease and its possible relationship with cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to characterize hypertensive patients with a significant IAD in relation to cardiovascular risk. A total of 3699 patients (mean age, 61 ± 11 years) were prospectively enrolled in the study. Blood pressure (BP) was measured simultaneously in both arms 3 times using an automated cuff-oscillometric device. IAD was defined as the absolute difference in averaged BPs between the left and right arm, and an IAD ≥ 10 mm Hg was considered to be significant. The Framingham risk score was used to calculate the 10-year cardiovascular risk. The mean systolic IAD (sIAD) was 4.3 ± 4.1 mm Hg, and 285 (7.7%) patients showed significant sIAD. Patients with significant sIAD showed larger body mass index (P < 0.001), greater systolic BP (P = 0.050), more coronary artery disease (relative risk = 1.356, P = 0.034), and more cerebrovascular disease (relative risk = 1.521, P = 0.072). The mean 10-year cardiovascular risk was 9.3 ± 7.7%. By multiple regression, sIAD was significantly but weakly correlated with the 10-year cardiovascular risk (β = 0.135, P = 0.008). Patients with significant sIAD showed a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease, as well as an increase in 10-year cardiovascular risk. Therefore, accurate measurements of sIAD may serve as a simple and cost-effective tool for predicting cardiovascular risk in clinical settings.
An overview of the fire risk scoping study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nowlen, S.P.; Lambright, J.A.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

1989-01-01

The Fire Risk Scoping Study was sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and performed at Sandia National Laboratories. The study was initiated as a result of previous USNRC-sponsored fire research efforts that had identified certain fire risk issues that had not been addressed in previously completed commercial nuclear power plant fire risk analyses. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC-sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. 9 refs., 3 tabs
Plantar pitted keratolysis: a study from non-risk groups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asli Feride Kaptanoglu

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Pitted keratolysis is an acquired, superficial bacterial infection of the skin which is characterized by typical malodor and pits in the hyperkeratotic areas of the soles. It is more common in barefooted people in tropical areas, or those who have to wear occlusive shoes, such as soldiers, sailors and athletes. In this study, we evaluated 41 patients who had been diagnosed with plantar pitted keratolysis. The patients were of high socioeconomic status, were office-workers, and most had a university degree. Malodor and plantar hyperhydrosis were the most frequently reported symptoms. The weight-bearing metatarsal parts of the feet were those most affected. Almost half the women in the study gave a history of regular pedicure and foot care in a spa salon. Mean treatment duration was 19 days. All patients were informed about the etiology of the disease, predisposing factors and preventive methods. Recurrences were observed in only 17% of patients during the one year follow-up period. This study emphasizes that even malodorous feet among non-risk city dwellers may be a sign of plantar pitted keratolysis. A study of the real incidence of the disease in a large population-based series is needed.
Gastroesophageal reflux disease and risk for bipolar disorder: a nationwide population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Wan-Shan; Hu, Li-Yu; Liu, Chia-Jen; Hsu, Chih-Chao; Shen, Cheng-Che; Wang, Yen-Po; Hu, Yu-Wen; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yeh, Chiu-Mei; Chen, Pan-Ming; Su, Tung-Ping; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Lu, Ti

2014-01-01

Studies have shown that chronic inflammation may play a vital role in the pathophysiology of both gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and bipolar disorder. Among patients with GERD, the risk of bipolar disorder has not been well characterized. We explored the relationship between GERD and the subsequent development of bipolar disorder, and examined the risk factors for bipolar disorder in patients with GERD. We identified patients who were diagnosed with GERD in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A comparison cohort without GERD was matched according to age, sex, and comorbidities. The occurrence of bipolar disorder was evaluated in both cohorts based on diagnosis and the prescription of medications. The GERD cohort consisted of 21,674 patients, and the comparison cohort consisted of 21,674 matched control patients without GERD. The incidence of bipolar disorder (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.58-3.36, Pdisorder (HR 4.89, 95% CI 3.06-7.84, P = .004) were independent risk factors for the development of bipolar disorder among GERD patients. GERD may increase the risk of developing bipolar disorder. Based on our data, we suggest that attention should be focused on female patients younger than 60 years, and patients with alcohol use disorder, following a GERD diagnosis.
German risk study, phase (DRS-B)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Werner, W.

1992-01-01

The first risk investigations were primarily intended to estimate the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants and to compare it with other natural risk and civilization risks. The American reactor safety study WASH 1400 and the German risk study phase A (DRS-A) gave a detailed analyses of the offsite consequences of accidents, especially the magnitude and frequency of health damage for the population. Risk investigations today are primarily used to examine the design of safety systems and to further develop the entire safety concept. Safety investigations have shown that nuclear power plants still possess safety reserves if safety systems do not operate as planned. These safety reserves can be exploited in the sense of a further development of safety by plant internal emergency measures. One purpose of risk analyses is to identify such measures and to evaluate their feasibility and effectiveness. The most important goals of the investigations in DRS-B were: Identification of vulnerabilities and possible safety improvements; determination of safety reserves during accident sequences exceeding the design limits; evaluation of plant internal emergency measures. Thus, goals in phase B compared with phase A have changed from investigations of the magnitude of damage to detailed analysis of the plant systems response under accident conditions. The magnitude of possible fission product releases is also determined in phase B. However, no new accident consequence calculations are performed. Figs and tabs
Man, technology and risk: a study on intuitive risk assessment and attitudes towards nuclear energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renn, O

1981-06-01

Using the instruments of empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severeness of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks.
Characterizing users of new psychoactive substances using psychometric scales for risk-related behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vreeker, Annabel; van der Burg, Babette G.; van Laar, Margriet; Brunt, Tibor M.

2017-01-01

Studies investigating risk-related behavior in relation to new psychoactive substance (NPS) use are sparse. The current study investigated characteristics of NPS users by comparing risk-related behavior of NPS users to that of illicit drugs (ID) users and licit substances users and non-users (NLC)
Comparison of fall prediction by the Hessisch Oldendorf Fall Risk Scale and the Fall Risk Scale by Huhn in neurological rehabilitation: an observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hermann, Olena; Schmidt, Simone B; Boltzmann, Melanie; Rollnik, Jens D

2018-05-01

To calculate scale performance of the newly developed Hessisch Oldendorf Fall Risk Scale (HOSS) for classifying fallers and non-fallers in comparison with the Risk of Falling Scale by Huhn (FSH), a frequently used assessment tool. A prospective observational trail was conducted. The study was performed in a large specialized neurological rehabilitation facility. The study population ( n = 690) included neurological and neurosurgery patients during neurological rehabilitation with varying levels of disability. Around the half of the study patients were independent and dependent in the activities of daily living (ADL), respectively. Fall risk of each patient was assessed by HOSS and FSH within the first seven days after admission. Event of fall during rehabilitation was compared with HOSS and FSH scores as well as the according fall risk. Scale performance including sensitivity and specificity was calculated for both scales. A total of 107 (15.5%) patients experienced at least one fall. In general, fallers were characterized by an older age, a prolonged length of stay, and a lower Barthel Index (higher dependence in the ADL) on admission than non-fallers. The verification of fall prediction for both scales showed a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 64% for the HOSS scale, and a sensitivity of 98% with a specificity of 12% for the FSH scale, respectively. The HOSS shows an adequate sensitivity, a higher specificity and therefore a better scale performance than the FSH. Thus, the HOSS might be superior to existing assessments.
Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

2018-01-22

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.
ABO Blood Group and Dementia Risk--A Scandinavian Record-Linkage Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vasan, Senthil K; Rostgaard, Klaus; Ullum, Henrik

2015-01-01

,615 cases of Alzheimer's disease, 1,842 cases of vascular dementia, and 9,091 cases of unspecified dementia. Overall, our study showed no association between ABO blood group and risk of Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia or unspecified dementia. This was also true when analyses were restricted to donors......BACKGROUND: Dementia includes a group of neuro-degenerative disorders characterized by varying degrees of cognitive impairment. Recent data indicates that blood group AB is associated with impaired cognition in elderly patients. To date there are no large-scale studies that have examined...... the relationship between ABO blood group and dementia-related disorders in detail. METHODS: We used data from the SCANDAT2 database that contains information on over 1.6 million blood donors from 1968 in Sweden and 1981 from Denmark. The database was linked with health outcomes data from nationwide patient...
A literature-based preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luik, A.E.

1990-04-01

The objectives of this study were to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitudes of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management system. The study, which was completed prior to passage of the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system envisioned by the DOE in the 1985 ''Mission Plant for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program.'' As such, there may be statements in this paper that are not consistent with current DOE positions. The scope of this paper includes the repository, the integral Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility, and the transportation system that supports the repository and the MRS facility. Based on the results of this analysis, it is concluded that the radiological risks in the waste management system are small relative to nonradiological risks and relative to the risks of exposure to natural background radiation. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

Rockfall risk evaluation using geotechnical survey, remote sensing data, and GIS: a case study from western Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Nikolakopoulos, Konstantinos; Depountis, Nikolaos; Vagenas, Nikolaos; Kavoura, Katerina; Vlaxaki, Eleni; Kelasidis, George; Sabatakakis, Nikolaos

2015-06-01

In this paper a specific example of the synergistic use of geotechnical survey, remote sensing data and GIS for rockfall risk evaluation is presented. The study area is located in Western Greece. Extensive rockfalls have been recorded along Patras - Ioannina highway just after the cable-stayed bridge of Rio-Antirrio, at Klokova site. The rockfalls include medium- sized limestone boulders with volume up to 1.5m3. A detailed engineering geological survey was conducted including rockmass characterization, laboratory testing and geological - geotechnical mapping. Many Rockfall trajectory simulations were done. Rockfall risk along the road was estimated using spatial analysis in a GIS environment.
Risk modelling study for carotid endarterectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuhan, G; Gardiner, E D; Abidia, A F; Chetter, I C; Renwick, P M; Johnson, B F; Wilkinson, A R; McCollum, P T

2001-12-01

The aims of this study were to identify factors that influence the risk of stroke or death following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and to develop a model to aid in comparative audit of vascular surgeons and units. A series of 839 CEAs performed by four vascular surgeons between 1992 and 1999 was analysed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to model the effect of 15 possible risk factors on the 30-day risk of stroke or death. Outcome was compared for four surgeons and two units after adjustment for the significant risk factors. The overall 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent (29 of 741). Heart disease, diabetes and stroke were significant risk factors. The 30-day predicted stroke or death rates increased with increasing risk scores. The observed 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent for both vascular units and varied from 3.0 to 4.2 per cent for the four vascular surgeons. Differences in the outcomes between the surgeons and vascular units did not reach statistical significance after risk adjustment. Diabetes, heart disease and stroke are significant risk factors for stroke or death following CEA. The risk score model identified patients at higher risk and aided in comparative audit.
Malaria risk factors and care-seeking behaviour within the private sector among high-risk populations in Vietnam: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ingrid; Thanh, Huong Ngo Thi; Lover, Andrew; Thao, Phung Thi; Luu, Tang Viet; Thang, Hoang Nghia; Thang, Ngo Duc; Neukom, Josselyn; Bennett, Adam

2017-10-16

Vietnam has successfully reduced malaria incidence by more than 90% over the past 10 years, and is now preparing for malaria elimination. However, the remaining malaria burden resides in individuals that are hardest to reach, in highly remote areas, where many malaria cases are treated through the informal private sector and are not reported to public health systems. This qualitative study aimed to contextualize and characterize the role of private providers, care-seeking behaviour of individuals at high risk of malaria, as well as risk factors that should be addressed through malaria elimination programmes in Vietnam. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 11 key informants in Hanoi, 30 providers, 9 potential patients, and 11 individuals at risk of malaria in Binh Phuoc and Kon Tum provinces. Audio recorded interviews were transcribed and uploaded to Atlas TI™, themes were identified, from which programmatic implications and recommendations were synthesized. Qualitative interviews revealed that efforts for malaria elimination in Vietnam should concentrate on reaching highest-risk populations in remote areas as well their care providers, in particular private pharmacies, private clinics, and grocery stores. Among these private providers, diagnosis is currently based on symptoms, leaving unconfirmed cases that are not reported to public health surveillance systems. Among at-risk individuals, knowledge of malaria was limited, and individuals reported not taking full courses of treatment, a practice that threatens selection for drug resistance. Access to insecticide-treated hammock nets, a potentially important preventive measure for settings with outdoor biting Anopheles vectors, was also limited. Malaria elimination efforts in Vietnam can be accelerated by targeting improved treatment, diagnosis, and reporting practices to private pharmacies, private clinics, and grocery stores. Programmes should also seek to increase awareness and
Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

1993-09-01

This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.
Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

2017-07-01

Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Changing Global Risk Landscape - Challenges for Risk Management (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Wenzel, F.

2009-12-01

The exponentially growing losses related to natural disasters on a global scale reflect a changing risk landscape that is characterized by the influence of climate change and a growing population, particularly in urban agglomerations and coastal zones. In consequence of these trends we witness (a) new hazards such as landslides due to dwindling permafrost, new patterns of strong precipitation and related floods, potential for tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean, sea level rise and others; (b) new risks related to large numbers of people in very dense urban areas, and risks related to the vulnerability of infrastructure such as energy supply, water supply, transportation, communication, etc. (c) extreme events with unprecedented size and implications. An appropriate answer to these challenges goes beyond classical views of risk assessment and protection. It must include an understanding of risk as changing with time so that risk assessment needs to be supplemented by risk monitoring. It requires decision making under high uncertainty. The risks (i.e. potentials for future losses) of extreme events are not only high but also very difficult to quantify, as they are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties relate to frequency, time of occurrence, strength and impact of extreme events but also to the coping capacities of society in response to them. The characterization, quantification, reduction in the extent possible of the uncertainties is an inherent topic of extreme event research. However, they will not disappear, so a rational approach to extreme events must include more than reducing uncertainties. It requires us to assess and rate the irreducible uncertainties, to evaluate options for mitigation under large uncertainties, and their communication to societal sectors. Thus scientist need to develop methodologies that aim at a rational approach to extreme events associated with high levels of uncertainty.
Environmental risk factors for REM sleep behavior disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Postuma, R B; Montplaisir, J Y; Pelletier, A

2012-01-01

Idiopathic REM sleep behavior disorder is a parasomnia characterized by dream enactment and is commonly a prediagnostic sign of parkinsonism and dementia. Since risk factors have not been defined, we initiated a multicenter case-control study to assess environmental and lifestyle risk factors...... for REM sleep behavior disorder....
Characterizing users of new psychoactive substances using psychometric scales for risk-related behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Vreeker, Annabel; van der Burg, Babette G; van Laar, Margriet; Brunt, Tibor M

2017-07-01

Studies investigating risk-related behavior in relation to new psychoactive substance (NPS) use are sparse. The current study investigated characteristics of NPS users by comparing risk-related behavior of NPS users to that of illicit drugs (ID) users and licit substances users and non-users (NLC) users. In this cross-sectional study we included 528 individuals across an age range of 18-72years. Using a web-based questionnaire we collected self-report data on substance use, sensation seeking, impulsivity, peer substance use and risk perception of substance use. NPS and ID users had a higher level of sensation seeking compared to NLC users (NPS users: pusers: pusers (pusers (p=0.16), had increased levels of impulsivity compared to NLC users. NPS users had significantly higher scores for sensation seeking (F 1,423 =51.52, pusers. Additionally, NPS users had significantly more peers who use substances compared to ID and NLC users. Also, NPS and ID users had lower risk perception for most substances than NLC users. NPS users had lower risk perception for most substances than ID users. The findings highlight that NPS users show substantial more risk-related behavior than both ID and NLC users. Therefore, NPS users might be considered as a distinctive group of substance users that need another approach in terms of prevention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
What characterizes persons with high levels of perceived stress in Denmark? A national representative study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Line; Curtis, Tine; Kristensen, Tage S

2008-01-01

perceived stress is characterized by individual and neighbourhood factors with negative impacts on quality of life and risk of illness. This knowledge can guide future stress prevention efforts. Additionally, the results suggest a negative social component where perceived stress, unhealthy lifestyle and low...
Site characterization studies in the NWTS program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shipler, D.; Evans, G.

1980-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has the responsibility to identify sites and construct and operate facilities for the storage or isolation of spent fuel and/or reprocessing radioactive wastes from commercial nuclear power plants. The National Waste Terminal Storage (NWTS) Program has been initiated by the DOE to develop the technology and demonstrate the feasibility of burial and isolation of high level radioactive waste in deep geologic formations. The NTWS Program plan which sets forth the criteria, procedures, and other considerations required to characterize and select a site in a comprehensive stepwise manner is discussed. The plan is not specific to any given geologic medium but serves as a guide for site selection in any geohydrologic system deemed appropriate for consideration for a deep geologic repository. The plan will be used by all NWTS Project Offices in the conduct of their site characterization program. The plan will be updated, as warranted, to reflect technology development, National policies, rulemakings by regulatory agencies, and other changing political, social, and institutional considerations. Site characterization begins with the identification of regions believed to have suitable geologic, hydrologic, and environmental characteristics for repository siting. This is followed by an iterative process of data collection and analysis to identify areas and locations which appear most suitable for further investigations. In addition, screening studies of the DOE's nuclear complexes has led to the selection of the Nevada Test Site and the Hanford Site for further characterization studies. The site characterization process results in a number of candidate sites from which a site will be selected and proposed to the NRC for licensing
Sun Exposure, Vitamin D Receptor Genetic Variants, and Risk of Breast Cancer in the Agricultural Health Study

Science.gov (United States)

Satagopan, Jaya; Sima, Camelia S.; Orlow, Irene; Mujumdar, Urvi; Coble, Joseph; Roy, Pampa; Yoo, Sarah; Sandler, Dale P.; Alavanja, Michael C.

2013-01-01

Background: Epidemiologic evidence suggests a negative relation between sunlight exposure and breast cancer risk. The hypothesized mechanism is sunlight-induced cutaneous synthesis of vitamin D. Objectives: Our goal was to examine sun exposure and its interaction with vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene variants on breast cancer risk. Methods: We examined sun exposure and breast cancer incidence among 31,021 private pesticide applicators’ wives, including 578 cases, enrolled in the prospective Agricultural Health Study cohort and followed 8.6 years on average. We estimated interactions between sun exposure, VDR variants, and breast cancer in a nested case–control study comprising 293 cases and 586 matched controls. Information on sun exposure was obtained by questionnaire at cohort enrollment. Relative risks were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression for the cohort data and conditional logistic regression for the nested case–control data. Results: We observed a small decrease in breast cancer risk in association with usual sun exposure of ≥ 1 hr/day (versus sun exposure may be associated with reduced risk of breast cancer, but we did not find clear evidence of modification by VDR variants. Larger studies are warranted, particularly among populations in whom low levels of usual sun exposure can be more precisely characterized. Citation: Engel LS, Satagopan J, Sima CS, Orlow I, Mujumdar U, Coble J, Roy P, Yoo S, Sandler DP, Alavanja MC. 2014. Sun exposure, vitamin D receptor genetic variants, and risk of breast cancer in the Agricultural Health Study. Environ Health Perspect 122:165–171; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1206274 PMID:24252436
Hybrid Risk Management Methodology: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacky Siu-Lun Ting

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Risk management is a decision-making process involving considerations of political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard. In the last decade, a number of risk management tools are introduced and employed to manage and minimize the uncertainty and threats realization to the organizations. However, the focus of these methodologies are different; in which companies need to adopt various risk management principles to visualize a full picture of the organizational risk level. Regarding to this, this paper presents a new approach of risk management that integrates Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM, Enterprise Risk Management (ERM and Business Recovery Planning (BCP for identifying and assessing risks as well as managing the consequences of realized residual risks. To illustrate the procedures of the proposed methodology, a logistic company ABC Limited is chosen to serve as a case study Through applying HHM and ERM to investigate and assess the risk, ABC Limited can be better evaluated the potential risks and then took the responsive actions (e.g. BCP to handle the risks and crisis in near future.
Risk management strategies by Australian farmers: two case studies

OpenAIRE

Nguyen, Nam C.; Wegener, Malcolm K.; Russell, Iean W.; Cameron, Donald; Coventry, David; Cooper, Ian M.

2007-01-01

Australian farmers operate in one of the most risky farming environments in the world. They have to cope with numerous sources of risk including weather uncertainty, variable market prices, and institutional changes in their business management. This paper reports results from two case studies undertaken to examine the issues of farming risks and risk management strategies in Australia. The first case study found that unpredictable weather, financial risk, marketing risk, and personal risk we...
Are engineered nano iron oxide particles safe? an environmental risk assessment by probabilistic exposure, effects and risk modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yan; Deng, Lei; Caballero-Guzman, Alejandro; Nowack, Bernd

2016-12-01

Nano iron oxide particles are beneficial to our daily lives through their use in paints, construction materials, biomedical imaging and other industrial fields. However, little is known about the possible risks associated with the current exposure level of engineered nano iron oxides (nano-FeOX) to organisms in the environment. The goal of this study was to predict the release of nano-FeOX to the environment and assess their risks for surface waters in the EU and Switzerland. The material flows of nano-FeOX to technical compartments (waste incineration and waste water treatment plants) and to the environment were calculated with a probabilistic modeling approach. The mean value of the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of nano-FeOX in surface waters in the EU for a worst-case scenario (no particle sedimentation) was estimated to be 28 ng/l. Using a probabilistic species sensitivity distribution, the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) was determined from ecotoxicological data. The risk characterization ratio, calculated by dividing the PEC by PNEC values, was used to characterize the risks. The mean risk characterization ratio was predicted to be several orders of magnitude smaller than 1 (1.4 × 10 - 4 ). Therefore, this modeling effort indicates that only a very limited risk is posed by the current release level of nano-FeOX to organisms in surface waters. However, a better understanding of the hazards of nano-FeOX to the organisms in other ecosystems (such as sediment) needs to be assessed to determine the overall risk of these particles to the environment.
[Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

2012-04-01

Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water.
Media and risk. A phase model elucidating media attention to nuclear energy risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristiansen, Silje

2017-01-01

In today's risk-filled society, it is vital to recognize not only the risks that we face every day, but also that knowledge of such risks spreads, above all, via mass media. Risk-related information contributes to our knowledge and affects how we perceive risks and what risk decisions we ultimately make. Among the most memorable disasters of risks taken in recent memory, the nuclear energy accident in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011 changed how the public, policymakers, and media outlets perceive and deliberate the risk of nuclear energy. In response, the research question of this study interrogates how media portrayed the risk of nuclear energy and how coverage of the technology changed after the accident at Fukushima. The study concentrates on how two Swiss newspapers covered nuclear energy between 2010 and early 2015. By using a broad definition of risk and an innovative empirical operationalization of the concept, the study identifies different risk attention phases in media coverage, each characterized by different focus on risk dimensions. Interestingly, results show that those media paid considerable attention to political decisions about the use of nuclear energy, and surprisingly, the detrimental dimension of risk was in focus even before the 2011 nuclear accident in Japan. Although the benefits of nuclear technology became obscured after Fukushima, they recuperated interest as early as a year later. Such results raise a question regarding risk decisions and the use of nuclear energy - namely, when do societies decide upon risks, and how do media portray the risk at that moment in time?
Media and risk. A phase model elucidating media attention to nuclear energy risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kristiansen, Silje

2017-07-01

In today's risk-filled society, it is vital to recognize not only the risks that we face every day, but also that knowledge of such risks spreads, above all, via mass media. Risk-related information contributes to our knowledge and affects how we perceive risks and what risk decisions we ultimately make. Among the most memorable disasters of risks taken in recent memory, the nuclear energy accident in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011 changed how the public, policymakers, and media outlets perceive and deliberate the risk of nuclear energy. In response, the research question of this study interrogates how media portrayed the risk of nuclear energy and how coverage of the technology changed after the accident at Fukushima. The study concentrates on how two Swiss newspapers covered nuclear energy between 2010 and early 2015. By using a broad definition of risk and an innovative empirical operationalization of the concept, the study identifies different risk attention phases in media coverage, each characterized by different focus on risk dimensions. Interestingly, results show that those media paid considerable attention to political decisions about the use of nuclear energy, and surprisingly, the detrimental dimension of risk was in focus even before the 2011 nuclear accident in Japan. Although the benefits of nuclear technology became obscured after Fukushima, they recuperated interest as early as a year later. Such results raise a question regarding risk decisions and the use of nuclear energy - namely, when do societies decide upon risks, and how do media portray the risk at that moment in time?.
Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…
Incorporation of Heavy metals bioavailability into risk characterization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ryu, Hyerim; Chung, Jae Shik; Nam, Taekwoo; Nam, Kyoungphile [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Moon, Hee Sun [School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2010-09-15

The bioavailability of field-aged Cd and Cu was calculated, and compared to the total concentrations determined by acid digestion. Only 0.60-4.15% for Cd and 0.59-9.43% for Cu were found to be bioavailable when determined by stomach-phase extraction. The incorporation of bioavailability reduced more than 90% of the calculated risk of the metals at the site of study. It should be noted that such a reduction may not be generalized and the site-specific bioavailability needs to be determined case by case. (Abstract Copyright [2010], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)
Characterization and assessment of potential environmental risk of tailings stored in seven impoundments in the Aries river basin, Western Romania

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background The objective of this study was to examine the potential environmental risk of tailings resulted after precious and base metal ores processing, stored in seven impoundments located in the Aries river basin, Romania. The tailings were characterized by mineralogical and elemental composition, contamination indices, acid rock drainage generation potential and water leachability of hazardous/priority hazardous metals and ions. Multivariate statistical methods were used for data interpretation. Results Tailings were found to be highly contaminated with several hazardous/priority hazardous metals (As, Cu, Cd, Pb), and pose potential contamination risk for soil, sediments, surface and groundwater. Two out of the seven studied impoundments does not satisfy the criteria required for inert wastes, shows acid rock drainage potential and thus can contaminate the surface and groundwater. Three impoundments were found to be highly contaminated with As, Pb and Cd, two with As and other two with Cu. The tailings impoundments were grouped based on the enrichment factor, geoaccumulation index, contamination factor and contamination degree of 7 hazardous/priority hazardous metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn) considered typical for the studied tailings. Principal component analysis showed that 47% of the elemental variability was attributable to alkaline silicate rocks, 31% to acidic S-containing minerals, 12% to carbonate minerals and 5% to biogenic elements. Leachability of metals and ions was ascribed in proportion of 61% to silicates, 11% to acidic minerals and 6% to the organic matter. A variability of 18% was attributed to leachability of biogenic elements (Na, K, Cl-, NO3-) with no potential environmental risk. Pattern recognition by agglomerative hierarchical clustering emphasized the grouping of impoundments in agreement with their contamination degree and acid rock drainage generation potential. Conclusions Tailings stored in the studied impoundments were found to

Characterization and assessment of potential environmental risk of tailings stored in seven impoundments in the Aries river basin, Western Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Levei Erika

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective of this study was to examine the potential environmental risk of tailings resulted after precious and base metal ores processing, stored in seven impoundments located in the Aries river basin, Romania. The tailings were characterized by mineralogical and elemental composition, contamination indices, acid rock drainage generation potential and water leachability of hazardous/priority hazardous metals and ions. Multivariate statistical methods were used for data interpretation. Results Tailings were found to be highly contaminated with several hazardous/priority hazardous metals (As, Cu, Cd, Pb, and pose potential contamination risk for soil, sediments, surface and groundwater. Two out of the seven studied impoundments does not satisfy the criteria required for inert wastes, shows acid rock drainage potential and thus can contaminate the surface and groundwater. Three impoundments were found to be highly contaminated with As, Pb and Cd, two with As and other two with Cu. The tailings impoundments were grouped based on the enrichment factor, geoaccumulation index, contamination factor and contamination degree of 7 hazardous/priority hazardous metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn considered typical for the studied tailings. Principal component analysis showed that 47% of the elemental variability was attributable to alkaline silicate rocks, 31% to acidic S-containing minerals, 12% to carbonate minerals and 5% to biogenic elements. Leachability of metals and ions was ascribed in proportion of 61% to silicates, 11% to acidic minerals and 6% to the organic matter. A variability of 18% was attributed to leachability of biogenic elements (Na, K, Cl-, NO3- with no potential environmental risk. Pattern recognition by agglomerative hierarchical clustering emphasized the grouping of impoundments in agreement with their contamination degree and acid rock drainage generation potential. Conclusions Tailings stored in the studied
Psychosocial Risks: Is Risk Management Strategic Enough in Business and Policy Making?

Science.gov (United States)

Langenhan, Melissa K.; Leka, Stavroula; Jain, Aditya

2013-01-01

Background In times of continuous change and volatile markets, organizations are increasingly characterized by downsizing, work intensification, and resource rationalization. This has resulted in diversification, and the emergence of new risks within the field of occupational health and safety, with an important impact. This paper focuses on one such type of risk in the modern workplace—psychosocial risks. The current study aimed to explore stakeholder perspectives, regarding the extent to which psychosocial risks are incorporated into strategic risk management practices, at both the business and policy level. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 14 professionals, representing employer, expert, policy maker, and trade union stakeholder perspectives. Results It was found that the majority of organizations do not sufficiently, if at all, understand and incorporate psychosocial risks into strategic decision making, whereby the key barrier related to practical difficulties of not knowing how to manage psychosocial risks adequately. Conclusion The study found that there is a need to close the gap between policy and practice on a number of levels. Future recommendations comprise a policy framework and infrastructure underpinned by educational initiatives, partnerships, and networks to drive a shift in attitudes toward recognizing the duality of the concept of risk (including both potential negative and positive outcomes) and moving beyond simple regulatory compliance. PMID:23961331
Psychosocial risks: is risk management strategic enough in business and policy making?

Science.gov (United States)

Langenhan, Melissa K; Leka, Stavroula; Jain, Aditya

2013-06-01

In times of continuous change and volatile markets, organizations are increasingly characterized by downsizing, work intensification, and resource rationalization. This has resulted in diversification, and the emergence of new risks within the field of occupational health and safety, with an important impact. This paper focuses on one such type of risk in the modern workplace-psychosocial risks. The current study aimed to explore stakeholder perspectives, regarding the extent to which psychosocial risks are incorporated into strategic risk management practices, at both the business and policy level. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 14 professionals, representing employer, expert, policy maker, and trade union stakeholder perspectives. It was found that the majority of organizations do not sufficiently, if at all, understand and incorporate psychosocial risks into strategic decision making, whereby the key barrier related to practical difficulties of not knowing how to manage psychosocial risks adequately. The study found that there is a need to close the gap between policy and practice on a number of levels. Future recommendations comprise a policy framework and infrastructure underpinned by educational initiatives, partnerships, and networks to drive a shift in attitudes toward recognizing the duality of the concept of risk (including both potential negative and positive outcomes) and moving beyond simple regulatory compliance.
Study on the risk-informed regulation of NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Chaogui

2007-01-01

The risk-informed regulation is a modern type of NPP safety management mode using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. It is necessary to entirely and systematically study the associated regulations, standards and practices in order to promote the developments of risk-informed regulations in China. This paper introduces the risk-informed regulation, gives out the basic principles, method and acceptance risk criteria of risk-informed decision,making, discusses the PSA requirements for risk-informed decision-making and makes some suggestions about the application of risk-informed regulations in Chinese NPP. (authors)
Integrating economic and environmental indicators in the assessment of desertification risk: A case study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salvati, L. [Piazza F. Morosini 12, Rome (Italy); Zitti, M.; Ceccarelli, T. [Ufficio Centrale di Ecologia Agraria, Rome (Italy)

2008-09-30

Desertification is a complex phenomenon which reduces the soil fertility involving ecological and economic processes that characterize the environment at different geographic scales. The most widely accepted definition of desertification is the one given by the United Nations Convention. It defines desertification as 'land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human actities'.Desertification involves many countries featuring different ecological, economic, and social conditions. In Mediterranean Europe, high human pressure, economic development, and climatic changes combine to produce land consumption, soil erosion, salinization, and fire risk, all considered as key factors to start desertification processes. For many years the term desertification has been strictly associated to geo-physical conditions, but in very complex ecosystems the study of the interaction of physical patterns with population and social characteristics is necessary to better delineate areas at risk. The aims of this paper are therefore (i) to review recent findings in term of desertification processes and risk assessment in the Mediterranean basin, (ii) to illustrate a simplified model in which social and economic variables may significantly accelerate land degradation leading to desertification, (iii) to suggest a set of demographic, economic, and institutional indicators suitable to contribute to the assessment of desertification risk in the Mediterranean basin, (iv) to built a synthetic index based on a multivariate approach and, finally, (v) to compare such index with a standard index of desertification risk only referring to geo-physical conditions. As a conclusion, new findings to be achieved in the context of human impact on environment as an original contribution to the study of desertification were delineated.
On the complementary presentation of results of risk studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehrhardt, J.; Bayer, A.

1983-01-01

The presentation of the loss of years of life provides the opportunity to illustrate in complementary way the mortality risks evaluated as part of risk studies. As phase A of the DRS (German risk study nuclear power plants) bears upon the results of the American ''Reactor Safety Study'' (WASH 1400) it does not contain that factor of failure which has only been determined in subsequent studies. Phase B intends to present the results of risk assessments increasingly in form of abridged lifetime. (orig.) [de
A retrospective study of the characterization of Rickettsia species in ticks collected from humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Blanda, Valeria; Torina, Alessandra; La Russa, Francesco; D'Agostino, Rosalia; Randazzo, Kety; Scimeca, Salvatore; Giudice, Elisabetta; Caracappa, Santo; Cascio, Antonio; de la Fuente, José

2017-06-01

Rickettsiae (family Rickettsiaceae, order Rickettsiales) are obligate intracellular bacteria transmitted by arthropod vectors. Several Rickettsia species causing vector-borne rickettsioses belong to the spotted fever group (SFG). Traditionally, Rickettsia conorii has been considered as the main etiologic agent of Mediterranean spotted fever. However, the molecular characterization of rickettsiae allowed identifying other species involved in spotted fever in the Mediterranean region. In this study, 42 ticks collected from humans were subjected to morphological identification and molecular characterization of Rickettsia species potentially involved in human rickettsiosis in Sicily. Fourteen ticks positive to at least two Rickettsia spp. molecular markers were used in the study. Identified Rickettsia spp. included R. conorii, found in Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato and Rhipicephalus turanicus, Rickettsia aeschlimannii found in Hyalomma marginatum, Hyalomma lusitanicum, Dermacentor marginatus and Ixodes ricinus, Rickettsia massiliae found in R. turanicus and R. sanguineus s.l., and Rickettsia slovaca found in D. marginatus and R. sanguineus s.l. Our results showed a great variety of zoonotic Rickettsia spp. in ticks collected from humans in Sicily. The Rickettsia spp. reported in this study were identified in previously recognized or new potential tick vectors in Europe, highlighting the risk of infection by different Rickettsia spp. for humans bitten by ticks in Sicily. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.
Combined 18F-Fluciclovine PET/MRI Shows Potential for Detection and Characterization of High-Risk Prostate Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Elschot, Mattijs; Selnæs, Kirsten M; Sandsmark, Elise; Krüger-Stokke, Brage; Størkersen, Øystein; Giskeødegård, Guro F; Tessem, May-Britt; Moestue, Siver A; Bertilsson, Helena; Bathen, Tone F

2018-05-01

The objective of this study was to investigate whether quantitative imaging features derived from combined 18 F-fluciclovine PET/multiparametric MRI show potential for detection and characterization of primary prostate cancer. Methods: Twenty-eight patients diagnosed with high-risk prostate cancer underwent simultaneous 18 F-fluciclovine PET/MRI before radical prostatectomy. Volumes of interest (VOIs) for prostate tumors, benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) nodules, prostatitis, and healthy tissue were delineated on T2-weighted images, using histology as a reference. Tumor VOIs were marked as high-grade (≥Gleason grade group 3) or not. MRI and PET features were extracted on the voxel and VOI levels. Partial least-squared discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) with double leave-one-patient-out cross-validation was performed to distinguish tumors from benign tissue (BPH, prostatitis, or healthy tissue) and high-grade tumors from other tissue (low-grade tumors or benign tissue). The performance levels of PET, MRI, and combined PET/MRI features were compared using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC). Results: Voxel and VOI features were extracted from 40 tumor VOIs (26 high-grade), 36 BPH VOIs, 6 prostatitis VOIs, and 37 healthy-tissue VOIs. PET/MRI performed better than MRI and PET alone for distinguishing tumors from benign tissue (AUCs of 87%, 81%, and 83%, respectively, at the voxel level and 96%, 93%, and 93%, respectively, at the VOI level) and high-grade tumors from other tissue (AUCs of 85%, 79%, and 81%, respectively, at the voxel level and 93%, 93%, and 91%, respectively, at the VOI level). T2-weighted MRI, diffusion-weighted MRI, and PET features were the most important for classification. Conclusion: Combined 18 F-fluciclovine PET/multiparametric MRI shows potential for improving detection and characterization of high-risk prostate cancer, in comparison to MRI and PET alone. © 2018 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular
Design issues in epidemiologic studies of indoor exposure to Rn and risk of lung cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lubin, J.H.; Samet, J.M.; Weinberg, C.

1990-01-01

Recent data on indoor air quality have indicated that Rn (222Rn) and its decay products are frequently present in domestic environments. Their presence in indoor air raises concerns about an increase in lung cancer risk for the general population. To directly evaluate lung cancer risk from domestic exposure to Rn and its decay products, as well as to evaluate risk assessments derived from studies of Rn-exposed underground miners, several epidemiologic studies of indoor Rn exposure have been initiated or are planned. This paper calculates sample sizes required for a hypothetical case-control study to address several important hypotheses and shows the impact of difficult problems associated with estimating a subject's Rn exposure. We consider the effects of subject mobility, choice of the exposure response trend which is used to characterize an alternative hypothesis, and errors in the estimation of exposure. Imprecise estimation of Rn exposure arises from errors in the measurement device, exposure to Rn decay products from sources outside the home, inability to measure exposures over time in current as well as previous residences, and the unknown relationship between measured concentration and lung dose of alpha energy from the decay of Rn and its progeny. These methodological problems can result in large discrepancies between computed and actual study power. Failure to anticipate these problems in the design of a study can result in inaccurate estimates of power. We conclude that case-control studies of indoor Rn and lung cancer may require substantial numbers of subjects in order to address the many questions of importance that burden current risk assessments with uncertainty. We suggest pooling data from studies with the largest numbers of cases and with the most precise estimates of Rn exposure as the best approach for meeting present research needs
The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.
The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.
Psychological and sociological approaches to study risk perception

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renn, O [Kernforschungsanlage Juelich G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.). Programmgruppe Technik und Gesellschaft; Swaton, E [International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria). Joint IAEA-IIASA Risk Assessment Group

1984-01-01

Technological progress and its impacts on humankind has caused an increasing awareness of risk, and objective, statistical estimations are often inadequate to alleviate the public's fright and fear. Research on risk perception using psychological and sociological approaches is trying to bridge this gap. As a first step, a distinction must be made between the technical definition of risk (probability x consequences) and the social definition, in which additional parameters (source, dimensions, timeframe, exposure) need to be included. The methodology of risk assessment, though objective by design, is limited in the interpretability of its results, if the calculation of consequences does not take public perceptions and social effects into account. The problems and advantages of risk assessment are discussed, and the key questions for risk perception research are presented. Various techniques are available to study risk perception and attitudes towards risk; selection of a specific technique is determined by the objective of the research, namely sociological implications or psychological cognitions. Several empirical studies in both areas are presented and the results discussed.
Psychological and sociological approaches to study risk perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, O.; Swaton, E.

1984-01-01

Technological progress and its impacts on humankind has caused an increasing awareness of risk, and objective, statistical estimations are often inadequate to alleviate the public's fright and fear. Research on risk perception using psychological and sociological approaches is trying to bridge this gap. As a first step, a distinction must be made between the technical definition of risk (probability x consequences) and the social definition, in which additional parameters (source, dimensions, timeframe, exposure) need to be included. The methodology of risk assessment, though objective by design, is limited in the interpretability of its results, if the calculation of consequences does not take public perceptions and social effects into account. The problems and advantages of risk assessment are discussed, and the key questions for risk perception research are presented. Various techniques are available to study risk perception and attitudes towards risk; selection of a specific technique is determined by the objective of the research, namely sociological implications or psychological cognitions. Several empirical studies in both areas are presented and the results discussed. (author)
Functional connectivity in the first year of life in infants at risk for autism spectrum disorder: an EEG study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giulia Righi

Full Text Available In the field of autism research, recent work has been devoted to studying both behavioral and neural markers that may aide in early identification of autism spectrum disorder (ASD. These studies have often tested infants who have a significant family history of autism spectrum disorder, given the increased prevalence observed among such infants. In the present study we tested infants at high- and low-risk for ASD (based on having an older sibling diagnosed with the disorder or not at 6- and 12-months-of-age. We computed intrahemispheric linear coherence between anterior and posterior sites as a measure of neural functional connectivity derived from electroencephalography while the infants were listening to speech sounds. We found that by 12-months-of-age infants at risk for ASD showed reduced functional connectivity compared to low risk infants. Moreover, by 12-months-of-age infants later diagnosed with ASD showed reduced functional connectivity, compared to both infants at low risk for the disorder and infants at high risk who were not later diagnosed with ASD. Significant differences in functional connectivity were also found between low-risk infants and high-risk infants who did not go onto develop ASD. These results demonstrate that reduced functional connectivity appears to be related to genetic vulnerability for ASD. Moreover, they provide further evidence that ASD is broadly characterized by differences in neural integration that emerge during the first year of life.
Functional connectivity in the first year of life in infants at risk for autism spectrum disorder: an EEG study.

Science.gov (United States)

Righi, Giulia; Tierney, Adrienne L; Tager-Flusberg, Helen; Nelson, Charles A

2014-01-01

In the field of autism research, recent work has been devoted to studying both behavioral and neural markers that may aide in early identification of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). These studies have often tested infants who have a significant family history of autism spectrum disorder, given the increased prevalence observed among such infants. In the present study we tested infants at high- and low-risk for ASD (based on having an older sibling diagnosed with the disorder or not) at 6- and 12-months-of-age. We computed intrahemispheric linear coherence between anterior and posterior sites as a measure of neural functional connectivity derived from electroencephalography while the infants were listening to speech sounds. We found that by 12-months-of-age infants at risk for ASD showed reduced functional connectivity compared to low risk infants. Moreover, by 12-months-of-age infants later diagnosed with ASD showed reduced functional connectivity, compared to both infants at low risk for the disorder and infants at high risk who were not later diagnosed with ASD. Significant differences in functional connectivity were also found between low-risk infants and high-risk infants who did not go onto develop ASD. These results demonstrate that reduced functional connectivity appears to be related to genetic vulnerability for ASD. Moreover, they provide further evidence that ASD is broadly characterized by differences in neural integration that emerge during the first year of life.
Well-done meat consumption, NAT1 and NAT2 acetylator genotypes and prostate cancer risk: the multiethnic cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Sangita; Cao, Xia; Wilkens, Lynne R; Yamamoto, Jennifer; Lum-Jones, Annette; Henderson, Brian E; Kolonel, Laurence N; Le Marchand, Loïc

2010-07-01

Prostate cancer (PC) is the most common male malignancy in the United States and disparities in risk exist among ethnic/racial groups. A high intake of well-done meat and the presence of the rapid NAT1 and slow NAT2 acetylator genotypes, as modifiers of the carcinogenic effect of heterocyclic amines, were hypothesized to increase PC risk and possibly explain these ethnic differences in risk. This study examined the associations between well-done (red) meat consumption, NAT1 and NAT2 acetylator genotypes, and PC risk among five ethnicities (African American, Native Hawaiian, Japanese American, Latino, and Caucasian) in a case-control study of PC nested within the Multiethnic Cohort study. Cases (n = 2,106) and controls (n = 2,063) were genotyped for eight single nucleotide polymorphisms in NAT1 and seven single nucleotide polymorphisms in NAT2 that characterized all common alleles for these genes. Well-done meat intake was computed based on responses to a detailed food frequency questionnaire including a question on meat preference. Conditional logistic regression was used in the analysis. There was no evidence of an increased risk associated with preference for well-done meat, intake of well-done meat, and NAT1 or NAT2 genotypes (jointly or separately). These results do not support the hypothesis that exposure to heterocyclic amines is associated with risk of PC. However, additional studies with more precise exposure measures are needed.
Frailty and cardiovascular risk in community-dwelling elderly: a population-based study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricci NA

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Natalia Aquaroni Ricci,1 Germane Silva Pessoa,1 Eduardo Ferriolli,2 Rosangela Correa Dias,3 Monica Rodrigues Perracini1 1Master’s and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy, Universidade Cidade de São Paulo (UNICID, São Paulo, 2Faculty of Medicine, Universidade de São Paulo (USP, Ribeirão Preto, 3Department of Physiotherapy, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG, Belo Horizonte, Brazil Background: Evidence suggests a possible bidirectional connection between cardiovascular disease (CVD and the frailty syndrome in older people.Purpose: To verify the relationship between CVD risk factors and the frailty syndrome in community-dwelling elderly.Methods: This population-based study used data from the Fragilidade em Idosos Brasileiros (FIBRA Network Study, a cross-sectional study designed to investigate frailty profiles among Brazilian older adults. Frailty status was defined as the presence of three or more out of five of the following criteria: unintentional weight loss, weakness, self-reported fatigue, slow walking speed, and low physical activity level. The ascertained CVD risk factors were self-reported and/or directly measured hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, waist circumference measurement, and smoking.Results: Of the 761 participants, 9.7% were characterized as frail, 48.0% as pre-frail, and 42.3% as non-frail. The most prevalent CVD risk factor was hypertension (84.4% and the lowest one was smoking (10.4%. It was observed that among those participants with four or five risk factors there was a higher proportion of frail and pre-frail compared with non-frail (Fisher’s exact test: P=0.005; P=0.021. Self-reported diabetes mellitus was more prevalent among frail and pre-frail participants when compared with non-frail participants (Fisher’s exact test: P≤0.001; P≤0.001. There was little agreement between self-reported hypertension and hypertension identified by blood pressure measurement.Conclusion: Hypertension was
Western dietary pattern increases risk of cardiovascular disease in Iranian adults: a prospective population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Mirmiran, Parvin; Bahadoran, Zahra; Vakili, Azita Zadeh; Azizi, Fereidoun

2017-03-01

Limited data are available regarding the association of major dietary patterns and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Middle Eastern countries. We aimed to evaluate the association of major dietary patterns, using factor analysis, with the risk of CVD. Participants without CVD (n = 2284) were recruited from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study and were followed for a mean of 4.7 years. Dietary intake of participants was assessed at baseline (2006-2008); biochemical variables were evaluated at baseline and follow-up examination. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models, adjusted for potential confounders, were used to estimate risk of CVD across tertiles of dietary pattern scores. Linear regression models were used to indicate association of dietary pattern scores with changes of CVD risk factors over the study period. Two major dietary patterns, Western and traditional, were identified. During a mean 4.7 ± 1.4 years of follow-up, 57 participants experienced CVD-related events. In the fully adjusted model, we observed an increased risk of CVD-related events in the highest compared to the lowest tertile category of Western dietary pattern score (HR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.03-4.18, P for trend = 0.01). Traditional dietary pattern was not associated with incidence of CVD or CVD risk factors. A significant association was observed between the Western dietary pattern and changes in serum insulin (β = 5.88, 95% CI = 0.34-11.4). Our findings confirm that the Western dietary pattern, characterized by higher loads of processed meats, salty snacks, sweets, and soft drinks, is a dietary risk factor for CVD in the Iranian population.
Characterization study of industrial waste glass as starting material ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In present study, an industrial waste glass was characterized and the potential to assess as starting material in development of bioactive materials was investigated. A waste glass collected from the two different glass industry was grounded to fine powder. The samples were characterized using X-ray fluorescence (XRF), ...
Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Haimes, Yacov Y

2018-01-01

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Characterization of Portuguese Centenarian Eating Habits, Nutritional Biomarkers, and Cardiovascular Risk: A Case Control Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Pereira da Silva

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Background and Aims. Eating habits may contribute to longevity. We characterized the eating habits and cardiovascular risk (CVR biomarkers in Portuguese centenarians (CENT compared to controls. Methods and Results. Centenarians (n=253, 100.26 ± 1.98 years, were compared with 268 controls (67.51 ± 3.25, low (LCR and high (HCR CVR (QRISK®2-2016. Anthropometric and body composition were evaluated by bioimpedance. Abdominal obesity, BMI, and fat mass (FM cut-offs were according to the WHO. Sarcopenia was defined by muscle mass index cut-off ≤ 16.7 kg/m2. Daily red meat intake, adjusted for age and gender, was sarcopenia protective (OR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.096–0.670, P=0.006; however, it contributes for FM excess (OR = 4.946, 95% CI = 1.471–16.626, P=0.01, overweight, and obesity (OR = 4.804, 95% CI = 1.666–13.851, P=0.004. This centenarian eating habit (2% contrasts to HCR (64.3%. The history of red meat (P<0.0001 and canned/industrialized food intakes (P<0.0001 was associated with HCR. Basal metabolism was lower in centenarians versus LCR/HCR (CENT = 1176.78 ± 201.98; LCR = 1356.54 ± 170.65; HCR = 1561.33 ± 267.85; P<0.0001, BMI (CENT = 21.06 ± 3.68; LCR = 28.49 ± 4.69; HCR = 29.56 ± 5.26; P<0.0001, waist circumference (CENT = 85.29 ± 10.83; LCR = 96.02 ± 11.71; HCR = 104.50 ± 11.84; P<0.0001, and waist-hip ratio (CENT = 0.88 ± 0.07; LCR = 0.92 ± 0.08; HCR = 1.01 ± 0.08; P<0.0001. CENT had lower total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol, and cholesterol/HDL ratio than controls. Conclusions. Frequent consumption of red meat, cholesterol, and heme iron rich may contribute to obesity and increased CVR. The low frequency of this consumption, observed in centenarians, although associated with sarcopenia, may be one of the keys to longevity.
Molecular Characterization of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus in Women in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso.

Science.gov (United States)

Traore, Ina Marie Angèle; Zohoncon, Théodora Mahoukèdè; Dembele, Adama; Djigma, Florencia W; Obiri-Yeboah, Dorcas; Traore, Germain; Bambara, Moussa; Ouedraogo, Charlemagne; Traore, Yves; Simpore, Jacques

2016-01-01

High-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) is found in over 99% of cervical cancers. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of HPV in a population of women in Bobo-Dioulasso and to identify the high-risk types present in these women. From May to June, 2015, 181 women who came for consultation at the Souro Sanou University Hospital of Bobo-Dioulasso have been included in this study. Uterine endocervical swabs have been taken in these women. DNA obtained by extraction from the samples thus collected was used to determine the prevalence of high-risk human papillomavirus genotypes through real-time PCR. The age of the women ranged from 20 to 56 years with a mean of 35.3 ± 8.1 years. The prevalence of infection by high-risk HPV types was 25.4% (46/181). The most common high-risk HPV genotypes were HPV 39 (18.5%), HPV 52 (16.7%), HPV 18 (14.8%), and HPV 35 (13.0%). HPV 16 which is included in the HPV vaccines was not found in the population studied. This type of study which is the first one in Bobo-Dioulasso has showed a high prevalence of genotypes HPV 39, HPV 52, and HPV 35 which are not yet covered by a vaccine.
RISK CONCEPT AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gamze CAN

2006-10-01

Full Text Available Basic aim of an epidemiological study is to quantify the association between the exposure and the outcome of interest. To achieve this, the incidence of disease in a group of individuals exposed to the putative risk factors must be compared with the incidence in a group of persons not exposed. This comparison can be summarized by calculating either the ratio of the measures of disease occurrence for the two groups, which indicates the likelihood of developing the disease in the exposed individuals relative to those unexposed, or the difference between the two, which provides information about the absolute effect of the exposure in those exposed compared with those unexposed. Some terms about relative risk were explained and examine with samples in this article. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2006; 5(5.000: 374-381
Realized Volatility Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); M. Scharth (Marcel)

2013-01-01

textabstractIn this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from highfrequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive.
An Epidemiological Study of Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease and Related Risk Factors in Urban Population of Mashhad, Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Vossoughinia, Hassan; Salari, Masoumeh; Mokhtari Amirmajdi, Elham; Saadatnia, Hassan; Abedini, Siavash; Shariati, Alireza; Shariati, Mohammadjavad; Khosravi Khorashad, Ahmad

2014-01-01

Background: Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) is a chronic and common disease, which is characterized by heartburn and regurgitation. In the last couple of decades, GERD has received much attention and studies have shown an increase in its prevalence. Although there have been a few studies on the prevalence of GERD in Iran, no study has yet been done in the northeastern part of the country. The aim of our study was to evaluate the prevalence of GERD and its risk factors in a population from Mashhad. Objectives: To evaluate the epidemiology of GERD based on a population study in Mashhad. Patients and Methods: This was a cross sectional descriptive study conducted in 2010. In total, 2500 participants were selected based on cluster sampling. Modified and validated Mayo Clinic questionnaire for GERD was used for data collection. Overall, 1685 questionnaires were retrieved. Fifty-one participants were excluded because of pregnancies, history of abdominal surgery and being less than 18 years old. We analyzed data using the SPSS software version 16. Prevalence of GERD and significant risk factors (P value < 0.05) were determined. Results: In total, 420 participants (25.7%) had GERD symptoms. Risk factors with significant effects consisted of smoking, consumption of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NASIDs), overeating, chronic diseases, tea and coffee consumption and GERD in spouse. Conclusions: The prevalence of GERD among people living in Mashhad was above the average prevalence in other cities of Iran. However, risk factors seemed to be similar to those reported by other studies. PMID:25763231
The long- and short-term impact of elevated body mass index on the risk of new atrial fibrillation the WHS (women's health study).

Science.gov (United States)

Tedrow, Usha B; Conen, David; Ridker, Paul M; Cook, Nancy R; Koplan, Bruce A; Manson, Joann E; Buring, Julie E; Albert, Christine M

2010-05-25

The purpose of this study was to characterize the relationship between changes in body mass index (BMI) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in a large cohort of women. Obesity and AF are increasing public health problems. The importance of dynamic obesity-associated AF risk is uncertain, and mediators are not well characterized. Cases of AF were confirmed by medical record review in 34,309 participants in the Women's Health Study. Baseline and updated measures of BMI were obtained from periodic questionnaires. During 12.9 +/- 1.9 years of follow-up, 834 AF events were confirmed. BMI was linearly associated with AF risk, with a 4.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.4 to 6.1, p WHS]: A Randomized Trial of Low-Dose Aspirin and Vitamin E in the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer; NCT00000479). Copyright (c) 2010 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Antiepileptic drugs and risk of suicide: a nationwide study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olesen, J.B.; Hansen, Peter Riis; Erdal, Jesper

2010-01-01

Purpose Patients with epilepsy or psychiatric diseases have increased risk of suicide, but whether the risk is influenced by antiepileptic drug (AED) treatment is unclear. Studies have suggested that AEDs in general increase the risk of suicidal behaviour shortly after initiation. This study inve...
Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, M.M.

2007-01-01

Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed
Decreasing relative risk premium

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Frank

2007-01-01

such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...
Diabetes, cardiac disorders and asthma as risk factors for severe organ involvement among adult dengue patients: A matched case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Pang, Junxiong; Hsu, Jung Pu; Yeo, Tsin Wen; Leo, Yee Sin; Lye, David C

2017-01-03

Progression to severe organ involvement due to dengue infection has been associated with severe dengue disease, intensive care treatment, and mortality. However, there is a lack of understanding of the impact of pre-existing comorbidities and other risk factors of severe organ involvement among dengue adults. The aim of this retrospective case-control study is to characterize and identify risk factors that predispose dengue adults at risk of progression with severe organ involvement. This study involved 174 dengue patients who had progressed with severe organ involvement and 865 dengue patients without severe organ involvement, matched by the year of presentation of the cases, who were admitted to Tan Tock Seng Hospital between year 2005 and 2008. Age group of 60 years or older, diabetes, cardiac disorders, asthma, and having two or more pre-existing comorbidities were independent risk factors of severe organ involvement. Abdominal pain, clinical fluid accumulation, and hematocrit rise and rapid platelet count drop at presentation were significantly associated with severe organ involvement. These risk factors, when validated in a larger study, will be useful for triage by clinicians for prompt monitoring and clinical management at first presentation, to minimize the risk of severe organ involvement and hence, disease severity.
Basic aspects and results of the German risk study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayer, A.; Heuser, F.W.

1981-01-01

This article presents an overview of the investigations and results of the German Risk Study (Phase A). Similar to its American counterpart [Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400)], the German Risk Study assesses the societal risks associated with potential accidents in nuclear power plants sited in the Federal Republic of Germany. The technical part of the analysis was performed for a representative pressurized-water-reactor nuclear power plant of the 1300-MW(e) class. For the risk assessment, 19 sites were considered, with a total of 25 reactor units presently in operation, under construction, or undergoing the licensing procedure. In the spring of 1981 a translation of the main report [German Risk Study-Main Report (EPRI-NP-1804-SR)], including the investigations and results of Phase A, was published by the Electric Power Research Institute
A historical perspective of risk-informed regulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campbell, P.L.

1996-12-01

In Federal studies, the process of using risk information is described as having two general components: (1) risk assessment - the application of credible scientific principles and statistical methods to develop estimates of the likely effects of natural phenomena and human factors and the characterization of these estimates in a form appropriate for the intended audience (e.g., agency decisionmakers, public); and (2) risk management - the process of weighing policy alternatives and selecting the most appropriate regulatory action, integrating the results of risk assessment with engineering data with social, economic, and political concerns to reach a decision. This paper discusses largely the second component.
A historical perspective of risk-informed regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, P.L.

1996-01-01

In Federal studies, the process of using risk information is described as having two general components: (1) risk assessment - the application of credible scientific principles and statistical methods to develop estimates of the likely effects of natural phenomena and human factors and the characterization of these estimates in a form appropriate for the intended audience (e.g., agency decisionmakers, public); and (2) risk management - the process of weighing policy alternatives and selecting the most appropriate regulatory action, integrating the results of risk assessment with engineering data with social, economic, and political concerns to reach a decision. This paper discusses largely the second component
Malaria risk in young male travellers but local transmission persists: a case-control study in low transmission Namibia.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jennifer L; Auala, Joyce; Haindongo, Erastus; Uusiku, Petrina; Gosling, Roly; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Mumbengegwi, Davis; Sturrock, Hugh J W

2017-02-10

A key component of malaria elimination campaigns is the identification and targeting of high risk populations. To characterize high risk populations in north central Namibia, a prospective health facility-based case-control study was conducted from December 2012-July 2014. Cases (n = 107) were all patients presenting to any of the 46 health clinics located in the study districts with a confirmed Plasmodium infection by multi-species rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Population controls (n = 679) for each district were RDT negative individuals residing within a household that was randomly selected from a census listing using a two-stage sampling procedure. Demographic, travel, socio-economic, behavioural, climate and vegetation data were also collected. Spatial patterns of malaria risk were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for malaria. Malaria risk was observed to cluster along the border with Angola, and travel patterns among cases were comparatively restricted to northern Namibia and Angola. Travel to Angola was associated with excessive risk of malaria in males (OR 43.58 95% CI 2.12-896), but there was no corresponding risk associated with travel by females. This is the first study to reveal that gender can modify the effect of travel on risk of malaria. Amongst non-travellers, male gender was also associated with a higher risk of malaria compared with females (OR 1.95 95% CI 1.25-3.04). Other strong risk factors were sleeping away from the household the previous night, lower socioeconomic status, living in an area with moderate vegetation around their house, experiencing moderate rainfall in the month prior to diagnosis and living young male travellers, who have a disproportionate risk of malaria in northern Namibia, to coordinate cross-border regional malaria prevention initiatives and to scale up coverage of prevention measures such as indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticide nets in high risk areas if
Dietary patterns and colorectal adenoma and cancer risk: a review of the epidemiological evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Paige E; Lesko, Samuel M; Muscat, Joshua E; Lazarus, Philip; Hartman, Terryl J

2010-01-01

A number of studies exploring associations between individual dietary components and colorectal adenoma or cancer risk have yielded conflicting results. The study of food-based dietary patterns in relation to chronic disease risk represents an alternative approach to the evaluation of single dietary exposures in epidemiological investigations. Results from prospective cohort and population-based case-control studies examining associations between dietary patterns and colorectal cancer or adenoma risk were evaluated and described in this review. Despite notable differences in population characteristics, study design, and methods used for characterizing dietary patterns across the different studies, two general dietary patterns were found to modestly predict colorectal adenoma and cancer risk. A healthier pattern consisting of greater intakes of fruits and vegetables, and lower intakes of red and processed meat, appeared protective against colorectal adenoma and cancer incidence. Findings also suggest that a less healthy pattern characterized by higher intakes of red and processed meat, as well as potatoes and refined carbohydrates, may increase risk. Continued research efforts are needed to evaluate the cumulative and interactive effects of numerous dietary exposures on colorectal cancer risk.
Putting risk analysis into perspective: a comparative review of major societal risk studies of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dooley, J.E.; Hansson, B.; Kaspersson, R.; ORiordan, T.; Paschen, H.

1983-04-01

The emphasis in this final report of the project Evaluation of major Swedish energy risk assessments in an international perspective is shifted towards the comparative aspect. The comprehensive nuclear risk study has been used as an instrument to satisfy many needs simultaneously. The research consisted of an examination of existing risk studies of five nations, namely West Germany, UK, US, Canada and Sweden. The effect of nuclear risk studies on society at large and on public attitude towards nuclear power in particular is discussed. Finally, the effect on the nuclear establishment is analysed. (G.B.)
Current Chemical Risk Management Activities

Science.gov (United States)

EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.
Characterizing genetic risk at known prostate cancer susceptibility loci in African Americans.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher A Haiman

2011-05-01

Full Text Available GWAS of prostate cancer have been remarkably successful in revealing common genetic variants and novel biological pathways that are linked with its etiology. A more complete understanding of inherited susceptibility to prostate cancer in the general population will come from continuing such discovery efforts and from testing known risk alleles in diverse racial and ethnic groups. In this large study of prostate cancer in African American men (3,425 prostate cancer cases and 3,290 controls, we tested 49 risk variants located in 28 genomic regions identified through GWAS in men of European and Asian descent, and we replicated associations (at p≤0.05 with roughly half of these markers. Through fine-mapping, we identified nearby markers in many regions that better define associations in African Americans. At 8q24, we found 9 variants (p≤6×10(-4 that best capture risk of prostate cancer in African Americans, many of which are more common in men of African than European descent. The markers found to be associated with risk at each locus improved risk modeling in African Americans (per allele OR = 1.17 over the alleles reported in the original GWAS (OR = 1.08. In summary, in this detailed analysis of the prostate cancer risk loci reported from GWAS, we have validated and improved upon markers of risk in some regions that better define the association with prostate cancer in African Americans. Our findings with variants at 8q24 also reinforce the importance of this region as a major risk locus for prostate cancer in men of African ancestry.
Feasibility study of component risk ranking for plant maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ushijima, Koji; Yonebayashi, Kenji; Narumiya, Yoshiyuki; Sakata, Kaoru; Kumano, Tetsuji

1999-01-01

Nuclear power is the base load electricity source in Japan, and reduction of operation and maintenance cost maintaining or improving plant safety is one of the major issues. Recently, Risk Informed Management (RIM) is focused as a solution. In this paper, the outline regarding feasibility study of component risk ranking for plant maintenance for a typical Japanese PWR plant is described. A feasibility study of component risk raking for plant maintenance optimization is performed on check valves and motor-operated valves. Risk ranking is performed in two steps using probabilistic analysis (quantitative method) for risk ranking of components, and deterministic examination (qualitative method) for component review. In this study, plant components are ranked from the viewpoint of plant safety / reliability, and the applicability for maintenance is assessed. As a result, distribution of maintenance resources using risk ranking is considered effective. (author)
Molecular Characterization of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus in Women in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ina Marie Angèle Traore

2016-01-01

Full Text Available High-risk human papillomavirus (HPV is found in over 99% of cervical cancers. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of HPV in a population of women in Bobo-Dioulasso and to identify the high-risk types present in these women. From May to June, 2015, 181 women who came for consultation at the Souro Sanou University Hospital of Bobo-Dioulasso have been included in this study. Uterine endocervical swabs have been taken in these women. DNA obtained by extraction from the samples thus collected was used to determine the prevalence of high-risk human papillomavirus genotypes through real-time PCR. The age of the women ranged from 20 to 56 years with a mean of 35.3±8.1 years. The prevalence of infection by high-risk HPV types was 25.4% (46/181. The most common high-risk HPV genotypes were HPV 39 (18.5%, HPV 52 (16.7%, HPV 18 (14.8%, and HPV 35 (13.0%. HPV 16 which is included in the HPV vaccines was not found in the population studied. This type of study which is the first one in Bobo-Dioulasso has showed a high prevalence of genotypes HPV 39, HPV 52, and HPV 35 which are not yet covered by a vaccine.

Implementation of condition-dependent probabilistic risk assessment using surveillance data on passive components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewandowski, Radoslaw; Denning, Richard; Aldemir, Tunc; Zhang, Jinsuo

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Condition-dependent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). • Time-dependent characterization of plant-specific risk. • Containment bypass involving in secondary system piping and SCC in SG tubes. - Abstract: A great deal of surveillance data are collected for a nuclear power plant that reflect the changing condition of the plant as it ages. Although surveillance data are used to determine failure probabilities of active components for the plant’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and to indicate the need for maintenance activities, they are not used in a structured manner to characterize the evolving risk of the plant. The present study explores the feasibility of using a condition-dependent PRA framework that takes a first principles approach to modeling the progression of degradation mechanisms to characterize evolving risk, periodically adapting the model to account for surveillance results. A case study is described involving a potential containment bypass accident sequence due to the progression of flow-accelerated corrosion in secondary system piping and stress corrosion cracking of steam generator tubes. In this sequence, a steam line break accompanied by failure to close of a main steam isolation valve results in depressurization of the steam generator and induces the rupture of one or more faulted steam generator tubes. The case study indicates that a condition-dependent PRA framework might be capable of providing early identification of degradation mechanisms important to plant risk.
Characterizing Contamination and Assessing Exposure, Risk and Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

EPA supports its responders' ability to characterize site contamination by developing sampling protocols, sample preparation methods, and analytical methods for chemicals, biotoxins, microbial pathogens, and radiological agents.
Range-finding risk assessment of inhalation exposure to nanodiamonds in a laboratory environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Koivisto, Antti J; Palomäki, Jaana E; Viitanen, Anna-Kaisa; Siivola, Kirsi M; Koponen, Ismo K; Yu, Mingzhou; Kanerva, Tomi S; Norppa, Hannu; Alenius, Harri T; Hussein, Tareq; Savolainen, Kai M; Hämeri, Kaarle J

2014-05-16

This study considers fundamental methods in occupational risk assessment of exposure to airborne engineered nanomaterials. We discuss characterization of particle emissions, exposure assessment, hazard assessment with in vitro studies, and risk range characterization using calculated inhaled doses and dose-response translated to humans from in vitro studies. Here, the methods were utilized to assess workers' risk range of inhalation exposure to nanodiamonds (NDs) during handling and sieving of ND powder. NDs were agglomerated to over 500 nm particles, and mean exposure levels of different work tasks varied from 0.24 to 4.96 µg·m(-3) (0.08 to 0.74 cm(-3)). In vitro-experiments suggested that ND exposure may cause a risk for activation of inflammatory cascade. However, risk range characterization based on in vitro dose-response was not performed because accurate assessment of delivered (settled) dose on the cells was not possible. Comparison of ND exposure with common pollutants revealed that ND exposure was below 5 μg·m(-3), which is one of the proposed exposure limits for diesel particulate matter, and the workers' calculated dose of NDs during the measurement day was 74 ng which corresponded to 0.02% of the modeled daily (24 h) dose of submicrometer urban air particles.
Range-Finding Risk Assessment of Inhalation Exposure to Nanodiamonds in a Laboratory Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antti J. Koivisto

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This study considers fundamental methods in occupational risk assessment of exposure to airborne engineered nanomaterials. We discuss characterization of particle emissions, exposure assessment, hazard assessment with in vitro studies, and risk range characterization using calculated inhaled doses and dose-response translated to humans from in vitro studies. Here, the methods were utilized to assess workers’ risk range of inhalation exposure to nanodiamonds (NDs during handling and sieving of ND powder. NDs were agglomerated to over 500 nm particles, and mean exposure levels of different work tasks varied from 0.24 to 4.96 µg·m−3 (0.08 to 0.74 cm−3. In vitro-experiments suggested that ND exposure may cause a risk for activation of inflammatory cascade. However, risk range characterization based on in vitro dose-response was not performed because accurate assessment of delivered (settled dose on the cells was not possible. Comparison of ND exposure with common pollutants revealed that ND exposure was below 5 μg·m−3, which is one of the proposed exposure limits for diesel particulate matter, and the workers’ calculated dose of NDs during the measurement day was 74 ng which corresponded to 0.02% of the modeled daily (24 h dose of submicrometer urban air particles.
Systemic use of antibiotics and risk of diabetes in adults: A nested case-control study of Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Ming; Robson, Paula J; Eurich, Dean T; Vena, Jennifer E; Xu, Jian-Yi; Johnson, Jeffrey A

2018-04-01

Previous observational studies using administrative health records have suggested an increased risk of diabetes with use of antibiotics. However, unmeasured confounding factors may explain these results. This study characterized the association between systemic use of antibiotics and risk of diabetes in a cohort of adults in Canada, accounting for both clinical and self-reported disease risk factors. In this nested case-control study, we used data from Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP), a longitudinal cohort study in Canada, and the linked administrative health records (2000-2015). Incident cases of diabetes were matched with up to 8 age and sex-matched controls per case. Conditional logistic regression was used to examine the association between antibiotic exposures and incident diabetes after sequentially adjusting for important clinical and lifestyle factors. This study included 1676 cases of diabetes and 13 401 controls. Although 17.9% of cases received more than 5 courses of antibiotics, compared to 13.8% of controls (P < .0001), the association between antibiotic use and risk of diabetes was progressively reduced as important clinical and lifestyle factors were accounted for. In fully adjusted models, compared to participants with 0 to 1 courses of antibiotics, participants receiving more antibiotics had no increased risk of diabetes [Odds Ratio, 0.97 (0.83-1.13) for 2 to 4 courses and 0.98 (0.82-1.18) for ≥5 courses]. After adjustment for clinical and difficult-to-capture lifestyle data, we found no association between systemic use of antibiotics and risk of diabetes. Our results suggest that those positive associations observed in previous studies using only administrative records might have been confounded. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Study of operational risk-based configuration control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

1991-08-01

This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.
Cultural differences in risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Do-Yeong Kim

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We compared South Koreans with Australians in order to characterize cultural differences in attitudes and choices regarding risk, at both the individual and group levels. Our results showed that Australians, when assessed individually, consistently self-reported higher preference for risk than South Koreans, regardless of gender. The data revealed that South Koreans, regardless of gender composition, were willing to take greater risks when making decisions in group decision-making situations than when they were alone. This is a different pattern from that seen in the Australian sample, in which a risky shift was noted only among males. This difference was attributed to the influence of various cultural orientations (independent vs. interdependent relationship styles. This study also provides a discussion of the implications of these results in terms of cultural differences in attitudes and decisions regarding risk.
Volcanic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rancon, J.P.; Baubron, J.C.

1995-01-01

This project follows the previous multi-disciplinary studies carried out by the French Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM) on the two active volcanoes of the French lesser Antilles: Mt Pelee (Martinique) and Soufriere (Guadeloupe) for which geological maps and volcanic risk studies have been achieved. The research program comprises 5 parts: the study of pyroclastic deposits from recent eruptions of the two volcanoes for a better characterization of their eruptive phenomenology and a better definition of crisis scenarios; the study of deposits and structures of active volcanoes from Central America and the study of eruptive dynamics of andesite volcanoes for a transposition to Antilles' volcanoes; the starting of a methodological multi-disciplinary research (volcanology, geography, sociology...) on the volcanic risk analysis and on the management of a future crisis; and finally, the development of geochemical survey techniques (radon, CO 2 , H 2 O) on active volcanoes of Costa-Rica and Europe (Fournaise, Furnas, Etna) and their application to the Soufriere. (J.S.). 9 refs., 3 figs
Risk appraisal and risk communication: Some empirical data from the Netherlands reviewed

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wiegman, O.; Gutteling, Jan M.

1995-01-01

A discrepancy is observed between the general public's subjective perception 'of environmental hazards, which is characterized by feelings of concern and insecurity, and "objective risk." In this article, theoretical notions about subjective risk perception are reviewed and illustrated with (our
Not all risks are created equal: A twin study and meta-analyses of risk taking across seven domains.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, X T Xiao-Tian; Zheng, Rui; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Chen, Jie; Li, Shu

2016-11-01

Humans routinely deal with both traditional and novel risks. Different kinds of risks have been a driving force for both evolutionary adaptations and personal development. This study explored the genetic and environmental influences on human risk taking in different task domains. Our approach was threefold. First, we integrated several scales of domain-specific risk-taking propensity and developed a synthetic scale, including both evolutionarily typical and modern risks in the following 7 domains: cooperation/competition, safety, reproduction, natural/physical risk, moral risk, financial risk, and gambling. Second, we conducted a twin study using the scale to estimate the contributions of genes and environment to risk taking in each of these 7 domains. Third, we conducted a series of meta-analyses of extant twin studies across the 7 risk domains. The results showed that individual differences in risk-taking propensity and its consistency across domains were mainly regulated by additive genetic influences and individually unique environmental experiences. The heritability estimates from the meta-analyses ranged from 29% in financial risk taking to 55% in safety. Supporting the notion of risk-domain specificity, both the behavioral and genetic correlations among the 7 domains were generally low. Among the relatively few correlations between pairs of risk domains, our analysis revealed a common genetic factor that regulates moral, financial, and natural/physical risk taking. This is the first effort to separate genetic and environmental influences on risk taking across multiple domains in a single study and integrate the findings of extant twin studies via a series of meta-analyses conducted in different task domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
Properties of Turkish Osteoporotic Women According to Risk Factor Assesment: A Multicenter Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Eryavuz

2002-03-01

Full Text Available Osteoporosis is a metabolic bone disease characterized by a decreased bone mass and a deterioration in bone microarchitecture which causes an enhanced fragility of the skeleton and creates a greater susceptibility to fractures. With increases in life expectancy and in the number of elderly people bone loss and fractures are becoming more common in the all over the world. The purpose of this study is to determine chracteristics and risk factors of Turkish osteoporotic women and to assess the effect of different geographic areas on risk factors. Nine hundred and five osteoporotic women who have lived 6 different geographic areas were included in this study. The study was completed in 26 different centers and its duration was 6 months. The mean age of patients were 62±9 years. Although sixty percent of those patients belived that they knew consequences of osteoporosis 35% did not know. The most known symptoms of osteoporosis were fractures (33%, kyphosis and low back pain (23%. Most of the physicians who diagnosed opteoporosis for the first time were physiatrists (86%. Being a physiatrist, we have a great deal of responsibilities in osteoporosis. Finally, we suggest that to determine the characteristics of Turkish osteoporotic women which depend on many factors such as differences of geographic factors, only will be possible by evaluation of great number of osteoporotic women.
Risk assessment. Report of a Royal Society study group

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1983-01-01

The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines).
Risk Characterization for Future Training Scenarios at the Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Zakikhani, Mansour

2004-01-01

This study was conducted to evaluate potential human and ecological health risks associated with emission of pyrotechnic compounds during future training exercises at the Massachusetts Military Reservation...
Characterizing the nature of home care work and occupational hazards: a developmental intervention study.

Science.gov (United States)

Markkanen, Pia; Quinn, Margaret; Galligan, Catherine; Sama, Susan; Brouillette, Natalie; Okyere, Daniel

2014-04-01

Home care (HC) aide is the fastest growing occupation, yet job hazards are under-studied. This study documents the context of HC aide work, characterizes occupational safety and health (OSH) hazards, and identifies preventive interventions using qualitative methods. We conducted 12 focus groups among aides and 26 in-depth interviews comprising 15 HC agency, union, and insurance company representatives as well as 11 HC recipients in Massachusetts. All focus groups and interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, and coded with NVIVO software. Major OSH concerns were musculoskeletal disorders from client care tasks and verbal abuse. Performing tasks beyond specified job duties may be an OSH risk factor. HC aides' safety and clients' safety are closely linked. Client handling devices, client evaluation, care plan development, and training are key interventions for both aides' and clients' safety. Promoting OSH in HC is essential for maintaining a viable workforce. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Identification of pain indicators for infants at risk for neurological impairment: A Delphi consensus study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camfield Carol

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A number of infant pain measures have been developed over the past 15 years incorporating behavioural and physiologic indicators; however, no reliable or valid measure exists for infants who are at risk for neurological impairments (NI. The objective of this study was to establish consensus about which behavioural, physiologic and contextual indicators best characterize pain in infants at high, moderate and low levels of risk for NI. Methods A 39- item, self-administered electronic survey that included infant physiologic, behavioral and contextual pain indicators was used in a two round Delphi consensus exercise. Fourteen pediatric pain experts were polled individually and anonymously on the importance and usefulness of the pain indicators for the 3 differing levels of risk for NI. Results The strength of agreement between expert raters was moderate in Round 1 and fair in Round 2. In general, pain indicators with the highest concordance for all three groups were brow bulge, facial grimace, eye squeeze, and inconsolability. Increased heart rate from baseline in the moderate and severe groups demonstrated high concordance. In the severe risk group, fluctuations in heart rate and reduced oxygen saturation were also highly rated. Conclusion These data constitute the first step in contributing to the development and validation of a pain measure for infants at risk for NI. In future research, we will integrate these findings with the opinions of (a health care providers about the importance and usefulness of infant pain indicators and (b the pain responses of infants at mild, moderate and high risk for NI.
Characterization of healing following atherosclerotic carotid plaque rupture in acutely symptomatic patients: an exploratory study using in vivo cardiovascular magnetic resonance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young Victoria E

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Carotid plaque rupture, characterized by ruptured fibrous cap (FC, is associated with subsequent cerebrovascular events. However, ruptured FC may heal following stroke and convey decreased risk of future events. This study aims to characterize the healing process of ruptured FC by assessing the lumen conditions, quantified by the lumen curvature and roughness, using in vivo carotid cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR. Methods Patients suffering from transient ischemic attack underwent high resolution carotid MR imaging within 72 hours of the acute cerebrovascular ischemic event. CMR imaging was repeated at 3 and 12 months in 26 patients, in whom FC rupture/erosion was observed on baseline images and subsequent cerebrovascular events were recorded during the follow-up period. Lumen curvature and roughness were quantified from carotid CMR images and changes in these values were monitored on follow-up imaging. Results Healing of ruptured plaque was observed in patients (23 out of 26 without any ischemic symptom recurrence as shown by the lumen surface becoming smoother during the follow-up period, characterized by decreasing maximum lumen curvature (p Conclusions Carotid plaque healing can be assessed by quantification of the lumen curvature and roughness and the incidence of recurrent cerebrovascular events may be high in plaques that do not heal with time. The assessment of plaque healing may facilitate risk stratification of recent stroke patients on the basis of CMR results.
Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

1996-01-01

The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures
Racial differences in risks for first cardiovascular events and noncardiovascular death: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, the Cardiovascular Health Study, and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Feinstein, Matthew; Ning, Hongyan; Kang, Joseph; Bertoni, Alain; Carnethon, Mercedes; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

2012-07-03

No studies have compared first cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and non-CVD death between races in a competing risks framework, which examines risks for numerous events simultaneously. We used competing Cox models to estimate hazards for first CVD events and non-CVD death within and between races in 3 multicenter, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-sponsored cohorts. Of 14 569 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants aged 45 to 64 years with mean follow-up of 10.5 years, 11.6% had CVD and 5.0% had non-CVD death as first events; among 4237 Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) study participants aged 65 to 84 years and followed for 8.5 years, these figures were 43.2% and 15.7%, respectively. Middle-aged blacks were significantly more likely than whites to experience any CVD as a first event; this disparity disappeared by older adulthood and after adjustment for CVD risk factors. The pattern of results was similar for Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants. Traditional Cox and competing risks models yielded different results for coronary heart disease risk. Black men appeared somewhat more likely than white men to experience coronary heart disease with use of a standard Cox model (hazard ratio 1.06; 95% CI 0.90, 1.26), whereas they appeared less likely than white men to have a first coronary heart disease event with use of a competing risks model (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60, 1.00). CVD affects blacks at an earlier age than whites; this may be attributable in part to elevated CVD risk factor levels among blacks. Racial disparities in first CVD incidence disappear by older adulthood. Competing risks analyses may yield somewhat different results than traditional Cox models and provide a complementary approach to examining risks for first CVD events.
RF EMF Risk Perception Revisited: Is the Focus on Concern Sufficient for Risk Perception Studies?

Science.gov (United States)

Wiedemann, Peter M; Freudenstein, Frederik; Böhmert, Christoph; Wiart, Joe; Croft, Rodney J

2017-06-08

An implicit assumption of risk perception studies is that concerns expressed in questionnaires reflect concerns in everyday life. The aim of the present study is to check this assumption, i.e., the extrapolability of risk perceptions expressed in a survey, to risk perceptions in everyday life. To that end, risk perceptions were measured by a multidimensional approach. In addition to the traditional focus on measuring the magnitude of risk perceptions, the thematic relevance (how often people think about a risk issue) and the discursive relevance (how often people think about or discuss a risk issue) of risk perceptions were also collected. Taking into account this extended view of risk perception, an online survey was conducted in six European countries with 2454 respondents, referring to radio frequency electromagnetic field (RF EMF) risk potentials from base stations, and access points, such as WiFi routers and cell phones. The findings reveal that the present study's multidimensional approach to measuring risk perception provides a more differentiated understanding of RF EMF risk perception. High levels of concerns expressed in questionnaires do not automatically imply that these concerns are thematically relevant in everyday life. We use thematic relevance to distinguish between enduringly concerned (high concern according to both questionnaire and thematic relevance) and not enduringly concerned participants (high concern according to questionnaire but no thematic relevance). Furthermore, we provide data for the empirical value of this distinction: Compared to other participants, enduringly concerned subjects consider radio frequency electromagnetic field exposure to a greater extent as a moral and affective issue. They also see themselves as highly exposed to radio frequency electromagnetic fields. However, despite these differences, subjects with high levels of thematic relevance are nevertheless sensitive to exposure reduction as a means for improving the
Advanced maternal age and risk perception: A qualitative study

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Advanced maternal age (AMA) is associated with several adverse pregnancy outcomes, hence these pregnancies are considered to be “high risk.” A review of the empirical literature suggests that it is not clear how women of AMA evaluate their pregnancy risk. This study aimed to address this gap by exploring the risk perception of pregnant women of AMA. Methods A qualitative descriptive study was undertaken to obtain a rich and detailed source of explanatory data regarding perceived pregnancy risk of 15 women of AMA. The sample was recruited from a variety of settings in Winnipeg, Canada. In-depth interviews were conducted with nulliparous women aged 35 years or older, in their third trimester, and with singleton pregnancies. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim, and content analysis was used to identify themes and categories. Results Four main themes emerged: definition of pregnancy risk, factors influencing risk perception, risk alleviation strategies, and risk communication with health professionals. Conclusions Several factors may influence women's perception of pregnancy risk including medical risk, psychological elements, characteristics of the risk, stage of pregnancy, and health care provider’s opinion. Understanding these influential factors may help health professionals who care for pregnant women of AMA to gain insight into their perspectives on pregnancy risk and improve the effectiveness of risk communication strategies with this group. PMID:22988825

Lifetime Prevalence, Age of Risk, and Genetic Relationships of Comorbid Psychiatric Disorders in Tourette Syndrome

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hirschtritt, Matthew E; Lee, Paul C; Pauls, David L; Dion, Yves; Grados, Marco A; Illmann, Cornelia; King, Robert A; Sandor, Paul; McMahon, William M; Lyon, Gholson J; Cath, Danielle C; Kurlan, Roger; Robertson, Mary M; Osiecki, Lisa; Scharf, Jeremiah M; Mathews, Carol A

IMPORTANCE: Tourette syndrome (TS) is characterized by high rates of psychiatric comorbidity; however, few studies have fully characterized these comorbidities. Furthermore, most studies have included relatively few participants (<200), and none has examined the ages of highest risk for each
Preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system based on information in the literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luick, A.E.; Fecht, B.A.; Nilson, S.A.; Sevigny, N.L.; Armstrong, G.R.; Hill, D.H.; Rowe, M.; Stern, E.

1992-01-01

This document presents preliminary information on the radiological and nonradiological risks in the nuclear waste management system. The objective of the study was to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitude of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management systems. The study examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system currently expected to be developed by the DOE. The scope of this document includes the potential repository, the integral MRS facility, and the transportation system that supports the potential repository and the MRS facility. Relevant literature was reviewed for several potential repository sites and geologic media. A wide range of ''risk categories'' are addressed in this report: (1) public and occupational risks from accidents that could release radiological materials, (2) public and occupational radiation exposure resulting from routine operations, (3) public and occupational risks from accidents involving hazards other than radioactive materials, and (4) public and occupational risks from exposure to nonradioactive hazardous materials during routine operations. The report is intended to provide a broad spectrum of risk-related information about the waste management system. This information is intended to be helpful for planning future studies
Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

1988-08-01

The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented
Characterizing Tumor Heterogeneity With Functional Imaging and Quantifying High-Risk Tumor Volume for Early Prediction of Treatment Outcome: Cervical Cancer as a Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayr, Nina A.; Huang Zhibin; Wang, Jian Z.; Lo, Simon S.; Fan, Joline M.; Grecula, John C.; Sammet, Steffen; Sammet, Christina L.; Jia Guang; Zhang Jun; Knopp, Michael V.; Yuh, William T.C.

2012-01-01

Purpose: Treatment response in cancer has been monitored by measuring anatomic tumor volume (ATV) at various times without considering the inherent functional tumor heterogeneity known to critically influence ultimate treatment outcome: primary tumor control and survival. This study applied dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) functional MRI to characterize tumors' heterogeneous subregions with low DCE values, at risk for treatment failure, and to quantify the functional risk volume (FRV) for personalized early prediction of treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: DCE-MRI was performed in 102 stage IB 2 –IVA cervical cancer patients to assess tumor perfusion heterogeneity before and during radiation/chemotherapy. FRV represents the total volume of tumor voxels with critically low DCE signal intensity ( 20, >13, and >5 cm 3 , respectively, significantly predicted unfavorable 6-year primary tumor control (p = 0.003, 7.3 × 10 −8 , 2.0 × 10 −8 ) and disease-specific survival (p = 1.9 × 10 −4 , 2.1 × 10 −6 , 2.5 × 10 −7 , respectively). The FRVs were superior to the ATVs as early predictors of outcome, and the differentiating power of FRVs increased during treatment. Discussion: Our preliminary results suggest that functional tumor heterogeneity can be characterized by DCE-MRI to quantify FRV for predicting ultimate long-term treatment outcome. FRV is a novel functional imaging heterogeneity parameter, superior to ATV, and can be clinically translated for personalized early outcome prediction before or as early as 2–5 weeks into treatment.
Nutrient patterns and risk of fracture in older subjects: results from the Three-City Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Samieri, C; Ginder Coupez, V; Lorrain, S; Letenneur, L; Allès, B; Féart, C; Paineau, D; Barberger-Gateau, P

2013-04-01

We investigated the association between nutrient patterns and risk of fractures in 1,482 older subjects. Patterns associated with higher intakes of Ca, P, vitamin B12, proteins and unsaturated fats, and moderate alcohol intake, provided by diets rich in dairies and charcuteries, were related to a lower risk of wrist and hip fractures. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between patterns of nutrient intake and the risk of fractures in older subjects. Among 1,482 participants from the Bordeaux sample of the Three-City (3C) Study who completed a 24-h dietary recall and a food frequency questionnaire, we examined the association between patterns of nutrient intake derived from principal component analysis and 8-year incidence of self-reported fractures of the hip, the wrist, and the vertebrae. A "nutrient-dense" pattern rich in Ca and P, iron, vitamins B including B12, vitamins C and E, alcohol, proteins, and unsaturated fats, and characterized by a higher consumption of fruits and vegetables, meats and fish, cheese and milk, charcuteries, cereals, rice, pasta, and potatoes, was associated with a 19% (95% CI 2-34%, P=0.03) lower risk of wrist fractures. The same pattern was associated with a 14% (95% CI 2-25%) lower risk of fractures at any site. A "south-western French" pattern rich in Ca, P, vitamins D and B12, retinol, alcohol, proteins, and fats-including unsaturated fats; poor in vitamins C, E, and K, carotenes, folates, and fibers; and related to a higher consumption of cheese, milk, and charcuterie and a lower consumption of fruits and vegetables was related to a 33% lower risk of hip fractures (95% CI 3-39%, P=0.03). Higher intakes of Ca, P, vitamin B12, proteins, and unsaturated fats and moderate alcohol, provided by dietary patterns rich in cheese, milk, and charcuteries, were related to a lower risk of wrist and hip fractures in our cohort.
Risk factors for cataract: A case control study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ughade Suresh

1998-01-01

Full Text Available The present study was designed as a hospital-based, group-matched, case-control investigation into the risk factors associated with age-related cataract in central India. The study included 262 cases of age-related cataract and an equal number of controls. A total of 21 risk factors were evaluated: namely, low socioeconomic status (SES, illiteracy, marital status, history of diarrhoea, history of diabetes, glaucoma, use of cholinesterase inhibitors, steroids, spironolactone, nifedipine, analgesics, myopia early in life, renal failure, heavy smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, hypertension, low body mass index (BMI, use of cheaper cooking fuel, working in direct sunlight, family history of cataract, and occupational exposure. In univariate analysis, except marital status, low BMI, renal failure, use of steroids, spironolactone, analgesics, and occupational exposure, all 14 other risk factors were found significantly associated with age-related cataract. Unconditional multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed the significance of low SES, illiteracy, history of diarrhoea, diabetes, glaucoma, myopia, smoking, hypertension and cheap cooking fuel. The etiological role of these risk factors in the outcome of cataract is confirmed by the estimates of attributable risk proportion. The estimates of population attributable risk proportion for these factors highlight the impact of elimination of these risk factors on the reduction of cataract in this population.
Polybrominated diphenyl ethers: a case study for using biomonitoring data to address risk assessment questions.

Science.gov (United States)

Birnbaum, Linda S; Cohen Hubal, Elaine A

2006-11-01

The use of biomonitoring data holds promise for characterizing exposure and informing risk assessment. Biomonitoring data have been used successfully to track population trends, identify susceptible populations, and provide indications of emerging environmental health issues. However, there remain challenges associated with interpreting biomonitoring data for risk assessment. An international biomonitoring workshop was convened in September 2004 to explore the use of biomonitoring data in the context of risk assessment. Six compounds were examined as case studies for this workshop, including polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). The PBDE case study was developed to provide an example of a persistent compound for which relatively few data are available for human exposure, biomonitoring, and health outcomes. PBDEs are used in hard plastics, electronics, textiles, and polyurethane foam products. The congener pattern downstream of production facilities often resembles the commercial mixture. However, because these compounds persist in the environment and in biota, the patterns of congeners evolve. PBDEs partition into body lipids, and direct measurement of bromodiphenyl ether congeners in biologic specimens provides a good marker of exposure. Data indicate significant variability (> 100-fold range) in lipid-adjusted levels for PBDEs in the general population. It is hypothesized that both exposure and pharmacokinetics may play a role in observed congener profiles. Significant gaps in our ability to interpret PBDE biomonitoring data to address public health and risk assessment questions include limited knowledge of environmental fate and transport of PBDE congeners, limited population-based data for adults, and lack of data for potentially vulnerable populations such as children.
Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

1988-08-01

The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented.
Characterization of Ictus in the Long-lived Patient: A Decade of Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yainelí Cutiño Maás

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: the increase of longevity, together non-transmissible diseases, support the prediction of the occurrence of ictus as cause of death. Objective: to characterize lomg-lived patients who have suffered from ictus. Methods: it is a descriptive study which included 456, 90 year old or more patients, with the diagnosis of ictus admitted at the Hospital Gustavo Aldereguía Lima, from January 2005 to December 2014. The variables included were: age, sex, kind of ictus, toxic habits, personal pathologic antecedents and condition at discharge. Results: 5,41 % of the total admissions due to ictus corresponded to long-lived patients. Female sex was more representative with 58,6 %. Ischemic etiology with 91,4 %. Arterial hypertension (76, 1 % and ischemic cardiopathy (43, 9 % were the most frequent risk factors. Hospital death rate was 35,7 %. Conclusion: there is a progressive increase of the presentation of ictus in long-lived with higher prevalence in the female sex and a high hospital death rate.
Risk factors of suicide mortality among multiple attempters: A national registry study in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, I-Ming; Liao, Shih-Cheng; Lee, Ming-Been; Wu, Chia-Yi; Lin, Po-Hsien; Chen, Wei J

2016-05-01

Little is known about the risk factors of suicide mortality among multiple attempters. This study aims to investigate the predictors of suicidal mortality in a prospective cohort of attempters in Taiwan, focusing on the time interval and suicide method change between the last two nonfatal attempts. The representative data retrieved from the National Suicide Surveillance System (NSSS) was linked with National Mortality Database to identify the causes of death in multiple attempters during 2006-2008. Cox-proportional hazard models were applied to calculate the hazard ratios for the predictors of suicide. Among the 55,560 attempters, 6485 (11.7%) had survived attempts ranging from one to 11 times; 861 (1.5%) eventually died by suicide. Multiple attempters were characterized by female (OR = 1.56, p suicidal death were identified as male, older age (≥ 45 years), shorter interval and not maintaining methods of low lethality in the last two nonfatal attempts. Receipt of nationwide aftercare was associated with lower risk of suicide but the effect was insignificant. The time interval of the last two nonfatal attempts and alteration in the lethality of suicide method were significant factors for completed suicide. Risk assessment involving these two factors may be necessary for multiple attempters in different clinical settings. Effective strategies for suicide prevention emphasizing this high risk population should be developed in the future. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Brain vs behavior: an effect size comparison of neuroimaging and cognitive studies of genetic risk for schizophrenia.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Rose, Emma Jane

2013-05-01

Genetic variants associated with increased risk for schizophrenia (SZ) are hypothesized to be more penetrant at the level of brain structure and function than at the level of behavior. However, to date the relative sensitivity of imaging vs cognitive measures of these variants has not been quantified. We considered effect sizes associated with cognitive and imaging studies of 9 robust SZ risk genes (DAOA, DISC1, DTNBP1, NRG1, RGS4, NRGN, CACNA1C, TCF4, and ZNF804A) published between January 2005-November 2011. Summary data was used to calculate estimates of effect size for each significant finding. The mean effect size for each study was categorized as small, medium, or large and the relative frequency of each category was compared between modalities and across genes. Random effects meta-analysis was used to consider the impact of experimental methodology on effect size. Imaging studies reported mostly medium or large effects, whereas cognitive investigations commonly reported small effects. Meta-analysis confirmed that imaging studies were associated with larger effects. Effect size estimates were negatively correlated with sample size but did not differ as a function of gene nor imaging modality. These observations support the notion that SZ risk variants show larger effects, and hence greater penetrance, when characterized using indices of brain structure and function than when indexed by cognitive measures. However, it remains to be established whether this holds true for individual risk variants, imaging modalities, or cognitive functions, and how such effects may be mediated by a relationship with sample size and other aspects of experimental variability.
Uniform risk functionals for characterization of strong earthquake ground motions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, J.G.; Trifunac, M.D.

1978-01-01

A uniform risk functional (e.g., Fourier spectrum, response spectrum, duration, etc.) is defined so that the probability that it is exceeded by some earthquake during a selected period of time is independent of the frequency of seismic waves. Such a functional is derived by an independent calculation, at each frequency, for the probability that the quantity being considered will be exceeded. Different aspects of the seismicity can control the amplitude of a uniform risk functional in different frequency ranges, and a uniform risk functional does not necessarily describe the strong shaking from any single earthquake. To be useful for calculating uniform risk functionals, a scaling relationship must provide an independent estimate of amplitudes of the functional in several frequency bands. The scaling relationship of Trifunac (1976) for Fourier spectra satisfies this requirement and further describes the distribution of spectral amplitudes about the mean trend; here, it is applied to find uniform risk Fourier amplitude spectra. In an application to finding the uniform risk spectra at a realistic site, this method is quite sensitive to the description of seismicity. Distinct models of seismicity, all consistent with our current level of knowledge of an area, can give significantly different risk estimates
RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services
The implications of the German Risk Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birkhofer, A.; Koeberlein, K.

1980-01-01

The methods and results of the German Risk Study published in 1979 are summarized and its implications for reactor safety are discussed. It has led to suggestions that risk analysis should be more widely used for nuclear and other technological systems. It has also identified the need for specific system modifications and confirmed trends in safety research. (author)
Czech miner studies of lung cancer risk from radon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomasek, L.

2002-01-01

Epidemiological evidence of lung cancer risk from radon is based mainly on studies of miners. Two such studies among Czech uranium miners were established in 1970 and 1980. A subcohort of 5002 miners and a nested-in case-control study contribute to a joint European project. In this paper, the subcohort of miners with 495 lung cancers is described. The excess relative risk depends linearly on cumulative exposure incurred more than 5 years before. The relative effect from exposures in the distant past decreases by 62% per decade. Simultaneously, the excess relative risk is lower by 43% per decade in dependence on age at exposure. The effect of smoking, partly analysed in the study, suggests a twofold elevation in the relative risk coefficient among non-smokers, but this difference is not significant. (author)
Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Hong; Li, Weixin; Qian, Xin

2015-08-21

Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI) to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution.
Risk Management and Insurance Decisions under Ambiguity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martínez-Correa, Jimmy

I study the impact of ambiguity on insurance decisions and the optimality of insurance contracts. My tractable approach allows me to study the interaction between risk and ambiguity attitudes. When insurance decisions are made independently of other assets, for a given increase in wealth, both risk...... portfolio theory that assumes Subjective Expected Utility theory; however, it provides hints to a possible solution of the under-diversification puzzle of households. I also identify conditions under which more risk or ambiguity aversion decreases the demand for coinsurance. Additionally, I show...... a counterexample to a classical result in insurance economics where an insurance contract with straight deductible is dominated by a coinsurance contract. Finally, I find that a modified Borch rule characterizes the optimal insurance contract with bilateral risk and ambiguity attitudes and heterogeneity in beliefs....
Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, L A; Ricci, P F

2005-04-01

Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.
Issuance of Final Guidance: Ecological Risk Assessment and Risk Management Principles for Superfund Sites, October 7, 1999

Science.gov (United States)

This guidance is intended to help Superfund risk managers make ecological risk management decisions that are based on sound science, consistent across Regions, and present a characterization of site risks that is transparent to the public.
Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); M. Scharth (Marcel)

2014-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
The Oncogenic Risks of Diagnostic CT Scam Studies in Children

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brent, R.

2004-01-01

Brenner et al (2001) reported that estimates of the exposure to children from CT scans indicates that the exposures are both higher than from conventional radiographic studies and higher than is necessary to obtain quality examinations. utilizing the oncogenic risk data from the RERF study in Japan, Brenner et al estimated that the oncogenic risk in this population of CT exposed children exposed each year would result in an additional 500 cases of cancer. This risk estimate is supported by the RERF epidemiological data obtained from the populations exposed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. the increased risks associated with the increased exposure from CT scans have raised concern and stimulated discussion. Although there is little doubt about the benefits of CT scans in improving the health care of children, there is concern about the estimated oncogenic risk, especially since the frequency of CT studies has been increasing. Applying the oncogenic risks of ionizing radiation from the RERF data may not be appropriate for all types of radiation exposure for accurately predicting the incidence of cancer in exposed children because of the impact of 1) partial versus whole-body irradiation, and 2) the protraction of the exposure. Other population of children who have been exposed to radiation and whose incidence of cancer has been studied will be presented and those studies indicate that the risk of cancer is much lower or not increased at all with exposures in the diagnostic range. finally, the dramatic impact of the use of CT scans in clinical pediatric practice saves lives and improves diagnostic accuracy. Therefore, it is crucial that a scholarly evaluation of the risks and benefits should be initiated. The radiology community and the manufacturers have already initiated programs to decrease the exposure significantly. But it is essential that well-planned, retrospective and prospective epidemiology studies should be initiated to study the oncogenic risks. If you want to
Perception of radiation risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brenot, J.

1992-01-01

Perception of risks by people depends on many factors, either characterizing the individuals, or specific to the risk sources. The risk concept, which confuses the issue, is precised first. Second, the perception phenomenon is presented as an interactive process involving the individual, the hazard, and the social context. Third, dimensions of perception are listed and used to describe the perception of radiation risks. Finally, the relation between perception and attitude is clarified. (author) 50 refs
The study of risk in pulmonary arterial hypertension

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerald Simonneau

2012-09-01

Full Text Available A growing body of published evidence exists on the risk factors for disease progression in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH. The Scientific Steering Committee for the Study of Risk in PAH was established to bring together leading clinical and statistical experts in PAH and risk modelling, for the purpose of advancing the understanding of the risk of development and progression of PAH. Herein, we discuss the impact of this information on three key areas: 1 clinical decision-making; 2 policy and reimbursement; and 3 future trials and research.
The programme of quality assurance relative to management and characterization of low activity wastes of Saclay nuclear study center

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cordero, G.; Perotin, J.P.

1988-05-01

The technique for inspection and characterization of solid wastes with a low or very low α activity and medium β or γ activity allows to guarantee ANDRA, the collecting authority, an accurate, but not perfect, knowledge of the wastes and to limit the risk of non-compliance to technical prescription to an acceptable value. Choice of sampling technique limits the number of analysis and automation limits cost and personnal risks [fr
A DASH dietary pattern and the risk of colorectal cancer in Canadian adults

OpenAIRE

Jones-McLean, E.; Hu, J.; Greene-Finestone, L. S.; de Groh, M.

2015-01-01

Introduction: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a high incidence cancer affecting many Canadian adults each year. Diet is important in the etiology of CRC with many dietary components identified as potential risk factors. The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet is a well-established pattern to characterize overall eating. The purpose of this study was to characterize a DASH pattern within the Canadian context and to assess its relationship to the risk of CRC in Canadian adults. Metho...
Lifestyle Risk Factors Increase the Risk of Hospitalization for Sciatica: Findings of Four Prospective Cohort Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Shiri, Rahman; Euro, Ulla; Heliövaara, Markku; Hirvensalo, Mirja; Husgafvel-Pursiainen, Kirsti; Karppinen, Jaro; Lahti, Jouni; Rahkonen, Ossi; Raitakari, Olli T; Solovieva, Svetlana; Yang, Xiaolin; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Lallukka, Tea

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of lifestyle risk factors on the risk of hospitalization for sciatica and to determine whether overweight or obesity modifies the effect of leisure-time physical activity on hospitalization for sciatica. We included 4 Finnish prospective cohort studies (Health 2000 Survey, Mobile Clinic Survey, Helsinki Health Study, and Young Finns Study) consisting of 34,589 participants and 1259 hospitalizations for sciatica during 12 to 30 years of follow-up. Sciatica was based on hospital discharge register data. We conducted a random-effects individual participant data meta-analysis. After adjustment for confounding factors, current smoking at baseline increased the risk of subsequent hospitalization for sciatica by 33% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13%-56%), whereas past smokers were no longer at increased risk. Obesity defined by body mass index increased the risk of hospitalization for sciatica by 36% (95% CI 7%-74%), and abdominal obesity defined by waist circumference increased the risk by 41% (95% CI 3%-93%). Walking or cycling to work reduced the risk of hospitalization for sciatica by 33% (95% CI 4%-53%), and the effect was independent of body weight and other leisure activities, while other types of leisure activities did not have a statistically significant effect. Smoking and obesity increase the risk of hospitalization for sciatica, whereas walking or cycling to work protects against hospitalization for sciatica. Walking and cycling can be recommended for the prevention of sciatica in the general population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Synthesis, characterization and antimicrobial studies of bio silica ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2018-05-16

May 16, 2018 ... Cynodon dactylon; green approach; silica nanoparticles; characterization; antimicrobial studies. 1. .... The obtained powder was well-ground with a mortar and ..... Inhalation of SiCl4 fumes irritates nose, throat and lungs.
Smoky River coal flood risk mapping study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-06-01

The Canada-Alberta Flood Damage Reduction Program (FDRP) is designed to reduce flood damage by identifying areas susceptible to flooding and by encouraging application of suitable land use planning, zoning, and flood preparedness and proofing. The purpose of this study is to define flood risk and floodway limits along the Smoky River near the former Smoky River Coal (SRC) plant. Alberta Energy has been responsible for the site since the mine and plant closed in 2000. The study describes flooding history, available data, features of the river and valley, calculation of flood levels, and floodway determination, and includes flood risk maps. The HEC-RAS program is used for the calculations. The flood risk area was calculated using the 1:100 year return period flood as the hydrological event. 7 refs., 11 figs., 7 tabs., 3 apps.
A Novel Multi-Approach Protocol for the Characterization of Occupational Exposure to Organic Dust-Swine Production Case Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Viegas, Carla; Faria, Tiago; Monteiro, Ana; Caetano, Liliana Aranha; Carolino, Elisabete; Quintal Gomes, Anita; Viegas, Susana

2017-12-27

Swine production has been associated with health risks and workers' symptoms. In Portugal, as in other countries, large-scale swine production involves several activities in the swine environment that require direct intervention, increasing workers' exposure to organic dust. This study describes an updated protocol for the assessment of occupational exposure to organic dust, to unveil an accurate scenario regarding occupational and environmental risks for workers' health. The particle size distribution was characterized regarding mass concentration in five different size ranges (PM0.5, PM1, PM2.5, PM5, PM10). Bioburden was assessed, by both active and passive sampling methods, in air, on surfaces, floor covering and feed samples, and analyzed through culture based-methods and qPCR. Smaller size range particles exhibited the highest counts, with indoor particles showing higher particle counts and mass concentration than outdoor particles. The limit values suggested for total bacteria load were surpassed in 35.7% (10 out of 28) of samples and for fungi in 65.5% (19 out of 29) of samples. Among Aspergillus genera, section Circumdati was the most prevalent (55%) on malt extract agar (MEA) and Versicolores the most identified (50%) on dichloran glycerol (DG18). The results document a wide characterization of occupational exposure to organic dust on swine farms, being useful for policies and stakeholders to act to improve workers' safety. The methods of sampling and analysis employed were the most suitable considering the purpose of the study and should be adopted as a protocol to be followed in future exposure assessments in this occupational environment.
A Novel Multi-Approach Protocol for the Characterization of Occupational Exposure to Organic Dust—Swine Production Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carla Viegas

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Swine production has been associated with health risks and workers’ symptoms. In Portugal, as in other countries, large-scale swine production involves several activities in the swine environment that require direct intervention, increasing workers’ exposure to organic dust. This study describes an updated protocol for the assessment of occupational exposure to organic dust, to unveil an accurate scenario regarding occupational and environmental risks for workers’ health. The particle size distribution was characterized regarding mass concentration in five different size ranges (PM0.5, PM1, PM2.5, PM5, PM10. Bioburden was assessed, by both active and passive sampling methods, in air, on surfaces, floor covering and feed samples, and analyzed through culture based-methods and qPCR. Smaller size range particles exhibited the highest counts, with indoor particles showing higher particle counts and mass concentration than outdoor particles. The limit values suggested for total bacteria load were surpassed in 35.7% (10 out of 28 of samples and for fungi in 65.5% (19 out of 29 of samples. Among Aspergillus genera, section Circumdati was the most prevalent (55% on malt extract agar (MEA and Versicolores the most identified (50% on dichloran glycerol (DG18. The results document a wide characterization of occupational exposure to organic dust on swine farms, being useful for policies and stakeholders to act to improve workers’ safety. The methods of sampling and analysis employed were the most suitable considering the purpose of the study and should be adopted as a protocol to be followed in future exposure assessments in this occupational environment.
Experimental study of canvas characterization for paintings

Science.gov (United States)

Cornelis, Bruno; Dooms, Ann; Munteanu, Adrian; Cornelis, Jan; Schelkens, Peter

2010-02-01

The work described here fits in the context of a larger project on the objective and relevant characterization of paintings and painting canvas through the analysis of multimodal digital images. We captured, amongst others, X-ray images of different canvas types, characterized by a variety of textures and weave patterns (fine and rougher texture; single thread and multiple threads per weave), including raw canvas as well as canvas processed with different primers. In this paper, we study how to characterize the canvas by extracting global features such as average thread width, average distance between successive threads (i.e. thread density) and the spatial distribution of primers. These features are then used to construct a generic model of the canvas structure. Secondly, we investigate whether we can identify different pieces of canvas coming from the same bolt. This is an important element for dating, authentication and identification of restorations. Both the global characteristics mentioned earlier and some local properties (such as deviations from the average pattern model) are used to compare the "fingerprint" of different pieces of cloth coming from the same or different bolts.
Using a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder to improve risk understanding by low numerates: a study of visual attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, Carmen

2011-07-01

Previous experimental research provides evidence that a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder is understood by low- and high-numerate individuals. It especially helps low numerates to better evaluate risk. In the present study, an eye tracker was used to capture individuals' visual attention to a familiar risk comparison, such as the risk associated with smoking. Two parameters of information processing-efficiency and level-were derived from visual attention. A random sample of participants from the general population (N= 68) interpreted a given risk level with the help of the risk ladder. Numeracy was negatively correlated with overall visual attention on the risk ladder (r(s) =-0.28, p= 0.01), indicating that the lower the numeracy, the more the time spent looking at the whole risk ladder. Numeracy was positively correlated with the efficiency of processing relevant frequency (r(s) = 0.34, p improving risk communication formats. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for in Natural and Processed Cheeses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heeyoung Lee

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model (r = 1.82×10−11 was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were 12.40±19.43 g and 19.46±14.39 g, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (α1 = 1, α2 = 91; α1 = 1, α2 = 309×uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8 to be −2.35 and −2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were 9.57×10−14 and 3.58×10−14, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens
Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment Methodology for Homeland Security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teagarden, Grant A.; Canavan, Kenneth T.; Nickell, Robert E.

2006-01-01

In response to increased interest in risk-informed decision making regarding terrorism, EPRI was selected by U.S. DHS and ASME to develop and demonstrate a nuclear sector specific methodology for owner / operators to utilize in performing a Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) assessment for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The objective is to characterize SNF transportation risk for risk management opportunities and to provide consistent information for DHS decision making. The method uses a characterization of risk as a function of Consequence, Vulnerability, and Threat. Worst reasonable case scenarios characterize risk for a benchmark set of threats and consequence types. A trial application was successfully performed and implementation is underway by one utility. (authors)
Risk concept and risk management in the field of power installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stein, Manfred; Barbulescu, Christiana; Anastasiu, Dan; Ionescu, Dumitru Cezar; Iliescu-Saligny, Paul; Iordache, Vasile

1996-01-01

The paper presents several opinions concerning general as well as specific aspects related to the risk management and the use of this concept in the field of power generation. Assessment possibilities of disturbing phenomena are analyzed including severe events leading to failures in power installations. Circumstances of occurring of such events are considered. This paper contains 4 sections. In the introduction the definition of the concept of risk is given. Risk is thus related to both events of a distinct nature with potentially dangerous consequences and events occurring in current operation of installations of different types. The risk notion is as important as other probabilistic indicators characterizing the power installation operation, i.e. availability, reliability, maintenance, etc. The section 2 approaches the concept of risk and argues for the necessity of quantifying it. Two probabilistic indicators are introduced, namely, the occurring probability of a disturbing event and the occurring frequency. To establish an algorithm of risk evaluation the risk notion should be dissociated into two components, the 'intrinsic' or 'initial' risk and the 'associated' risk. In turn, the latter could be divided into two types of risks, namely, the risk of an extant sustaining factor and the risk characterizing the exposure to the effects of the considered events. Applications of these notions for the cases of nuclear accidents, urban electricity or heating breakdown, energy supply breakdown in chemical facilities and others are given. The third section deals with risk management in power sector. Three objectives are here taken into account, i.e., ensuring the safety in operation of adopted systems, ensuring the safety of these systems from the consumers' standpoints and ensuring the environment protection. Examples for using the concepts introduced in case of electrical power stations or energy supply systems are given
Methods and models used in comparative risk studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Devooght, J.

1983-01-01

Comparative risk studies make use of a large number of methods and models based upon a set of assumptions incompletely formulated or of value judgements. Owing to the multidimensionality of risks and benefits, the economic and social context may notably influence the final result. Five classes of models are briefly reviewed: accounting of fluxes of effluents, radiation and energy; transport models and health effects; systems reliability and bayesian analysis; economic analysis of reliability and cost-risk-benefit analysis; decision theory in presence of uncertainty and multiple objectives. Purpose and prospect of comparative studies are assessed in view of probable diminishing returns for large generic comparisons [fr
Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC): Integrated Treatment of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in Safety Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Youngblood, R.W.

2010-01-01

The concept of 'margin' has a long history in nuclear licensing and in the codification of good engineering practices. However, some traditional applications of 'margin' have been carried out for surrogate scenarios (such as design basis scenarios), without regard to the actual frequencies of those scenarios, and have been carried out with in a systematically conservative fashion. This means that the effectiveness of the application of the margin concept is determined in part by the original choice of surrogates, and is limited in any case by the degree of conservatism imposed on the evaluation. In the RISMC project, which is part of the Department of Energy's 'Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program' (LWRSP), we are developing a risk-informed characterization of safety margin. Beginning with the traditional discussion of 'margin' in terms of a 'load' (a physical challenge to system or component function) and a 'capacity' (the capability of that system or component to accommodate the challenge), we are developing the capability to characterize probabilistic load and capacity spectra, reflecting both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in system response. For example, the probabilistic load spectrum will reflect the frequency of challenges of a particular severity. Such a characterization is required if decision-making is to be informed optimally. However, in order to enable the quantification of probabilistic load spectra, existing analysis capability needs to be extended. Accordingly, the INL is working on a next-generation safety analysis capability whose design will allow for much more efficient parameter uncertainty analysis, and will enable a much better integration of reliability-related and phenomenology-related aspects of margin.
Airborne lead levels in the Korean peninsula: characterization of temporal and spatial patterns and cancer risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mutlu, Atilla; Lee, Byeong-Kyu

2012-07-01

This study collected long-term airborne lead concentrations in the Korean peninsula and analyzed their temporal, spatial, and cancer risk characterization. Approximately, 12,000 airborne samples of total suspended particulate (TSP) were collected from 30 ambient air monitoring stations in inland (Daegu, Daejeon, Gwangju, and Seoul) cities and portal cities (Incheon, Busan, and Ulsan) over a period of 7 years (2004-2010). High volume air samplers were employed to collect daily TSP samples during the second week of the consecutive months throughout the entire study period. The concentrations of Pb extracted from the TSP samples were analyzed using either inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission or flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The long-term high mean Pb concentrations were observed in the port cities including Incheon (88 ± 18 ng/m(3)), Ulsan (61 ± 7 ng/m(3)), and Busan (58 ± 6 ng/m(3)). In the temporal analysis, seasonal mean Pb levels were relatively higher in winter and spring than those in summer and fall. In the spatial analysis, the mean Pb levels in spring, winter, and fall from Incheon, which showed the highest seasonal concentrations except summer, were 110 ± 19, 101 ± 18, and 76 ± 23 ng/m(3), respectively. In summer, the highest seasonal mean Pb level was observed in the largest industrial city and the second port city, Ulsan (78 ± 15 ng/m(3)), followed by Incheon (65 ± 13 ng/m(3)). The estimated excess cancer risk analysis showed that inhalation of Pb could result in cancer for one or two persons per million of population in the Korean peninsula.
Y-12 old salvage yard scrap metal characterization study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, L.M.; Melton, S.G.; Shaw, S.S.

1993-11-01

The purpose of the Y-12 Old Salvage Yard scrap metal Characterization Study is to make conservative estimates of the quantities of total uranium and the wt % 235 U contained in scrap metal. The original project scope included estimates of thorium, but due to the insignificant quantities found in the yards, thorium was excluded from further analysis. Metal in three of the four Y-12 scrap metal yards were characterized. The scrap metal yard east of the PIDAS fence is managed by the Environmental Restoration Program and therefore was not included in this study. For all Y-12 Plant scrap metal shipments, Waste Transportation, Storage, and Disposal (WTSD) personnel must complete a Request for Authorization to Ship Nuclear Materials, UCN-16409, which requires the grams of total uranium, the wt % 235 U, and the grams of 235 U contained in the shipment. This information is necessary to ensure compliance with Department of Transportation regulations, as well as to ensure that the receiving facility is adhering to its operating license. This characterization study was designed to provide a technical basis for determining these necessary radioactive quantities

Risk of falls after withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs: a prospective cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Velde, Nathalie; Stricker, Bruno H. Ch; Pols, Huib A. P.; van der Cammen, Tischa J. M.

2007-01-01

AIMS: Falling in older persons is a frequent and serious clinical problem. Several drugs have been associated with increased fall risk. The objective of this study was to identify differences in the incidence of falls after withdrawal (discontinuation or dose reduction) of fall-risk-increasing drugs
Risk perception, experience, and objective risk: a cross-national study with European emergency survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Knuth, Daniela; Kehl, Doris; Hulse, Lynn; Schmidt, Silke

2014-07-01

Understanding public risk perceptions and their underlying processes is important in order to learn more about the way people interpret and respond to hazardous emergency events. Direct experience with an involuntary hazard has been found to heighten the perceived risk of experiencing the same hazard and its consequences in the future, but it remains unclear if cross-over effects are possible (i.e., experience with one hazard influencing perceived risk for other hazards also). Furthermore, the impact of objective risk and country of residence on perceived risk is not well understood. As part of the BeSeCu (Behavior, Security, and Culture) Project, a sample of 1,045 survivors of emergencies from seven European countries (i.e., Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden, Spain, Turkey, and Italy) was drawn. Results revealed heightened perceived risk for emergency events (i.e., domestic and public fires, earthquakes, floods, and terrorist attacks) when the event had been experienced previously plus some evidence of cross-over effects, although these effects were not so strong. The largest country differences in perceived risk were observed for earthquakes, but this effect was significantly reduced by taking into account the objective earthquake risk. For fires, floods, terrorist attacks, and traffic accidents, only small country differences in perceived risk were found. Further studies including a larger number of countries are welcomed. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
Characterization strategy for the flammable gas safety issue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stewart, C.W.; Brewster, M.E.; Roberts, J.S.

1997-06-01

The characterization strategy for resolving the flammable gas safety issue for Hanford waste tanks is based on a structured logic diagram (SLD) that displays the outcomes necessary to reach the desired goal of making flammable gas risk acceptable. The diagram provides a structured path that can identify all information inputs, data as well as models, needed to achieve the goal. Tracing the path from need to outcome provides an immediate and clear justification and defense of a specific need. The diagram itself is a open-quote picture of a risk calculation close-quote and forms the basis for a quantitative model of risk. The SLID, with the risk calculation, identifies options for characterization, mitigation, and controls that have the maximum effect in reducing risk. It provides quantitative input to risk-based decision making so that options are chosen for maximum impact at least cost
Usefulness of Genetic Study by Next-generation Sequencing in High-risk Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz Salas, Amalio; Peña Hernández, José; Medina Palomo, Carmen; Barrera Cordero, Alberto; Cabrera Bueno, Fernando; García Pinilla, José Manuel; Guijarro, Ana; Morcillo-Hidalgo, Luis; Jiménez Navarro, Manuel; Gómez Doblas, Juan José; de Teresa, Eduardo; Alzueta, Javier

2018-03-29

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is an inherited cardiomyopathy characterized by progressive fibrofatty replacement of predominantly right ventricular myocardium. This cardiomyopathy is a frequent cause of sudden cardiac death in young people and athletes. The aim of our study was to determine the incidence of pathological or likely pathological desmosomal mutations in patients with high-risk definite ARVC. This was an observational, retrospective cohort study, which included 36 patients diagnosed with high-risk ARVC in our hospital between January 1998 and January 2015. Genetic analysis was performed using next-generation sequencing. Most patients were male (28 patients, 78%) with a mean age at diagnosis of 45 ± 18 years. A pathogenic or probably pathogenic desmosomal mutation was detected in 26 of the 35 index cases (74%): 5 nonsense, 14 frameshift, 1 splice, and 6 missense. Novel mutations were found in 15 patients (71%). The presence or absence of desmosomal mutations causing the disease and the type of mutation were not associated with specific electrocardiographic, clinical, arrhythmic, anatomic, or prognostic characteristics. The incidence of pathological or likely pathological desmosomal mutations in ARVC is very high, with most mutations causing truncation. The presence of desmosomal mutations was not associated with prognosis. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Human risk relationships derived from epidemiology and laboratory studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cuddihy, R.G.; Boecker, B.B.; Hahn, F.F.; McClellan, R.O.

1983-01-01

Proven techniques are needed for incorporating the results of laboratory toxicology studies into human risk assessments. Two sample calculations of lung cancer risk factors for inhaled radioactive particles and diesel engine exhaust are given here to illustrate a toxicology information matrix approach. This approach combines the results of epidemiology and laboratory animal studies of the substance or agent of principal concern, along with similar information on other surrogate substances. Beyond the estimates of lung cancer risk factors derived by using this approach, an additional advantage is gained by having estimates of uncertainty that can be obtained by incorporating all available toxicology information into the analysis. This approach is recommended for both risk assessment and in designing follow-on toxicology studies to improve preliminary assessments for new potentially harmful agents entering our environment
Gastroesophageal reflux disease and risk for bipolar disorder: a nationwide population-based study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wan-Shan Lin

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that chronic inflammation may play a vital role in the pathophysiology of both gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD and bipolar disorder. Among patients with GERD, the risk of bipolar disorder has not been well characterized. OBJECTIVE: We explored the relationship between GERD and the subsequent development of bipolar disorder, and examined the risk factors for bipolar disorder in patients with GERD. METHODS: We identified patients who were diagnosed with GERD in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A comparison cohort without GERD was matched according to age, sex, and comorbidities. The occurrence of bipolar disorder was evaluated in both cohorts based on diagnosis and the prescription of medications. RESULTS: The GERD cohort consisted of 21,674 patients, and the comparison cohort consisted of 21,674 matched control patients without GERD. The incidence of bipolar disorder (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.58-3.36, P<.001 was higher among GERD patients than among comparison cohort. Multivariate, matched regression models showed that the female sex (hazard ratio [HR] 1.78, 95% CI 1.76-2.74, P = .008, being younger than 60 years old (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.33-4.16, P = .003, and alcohol use disorder (HR 4.89, 95% CI 3.06-7.84, P = .004 were independent risk factors for the development of bipolar disorder among GERD patients. CONCLUSIONS: GERD may increase the risk of developing bipolar disorder. Based on our data, we suggest that attention should be focused on female patients younger than 60 years, and patients with alcohol use disorder, following a GERD diagnosis.
Variations of emission characterization of PAHs emitted from different utility boilers of coal-fired power plants and risk assessment related to atmospheric PAHs.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ruwei; Liu, Guijian; Zhang, Jiamei

2015-12-15

Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) represent important source of atmospheric PAHs, however, their emission characterization are still largely unknown. In this work, the concentration, distribution and gas-particle partitioning of PM10- and gas-phase PAHs in flue gas emitted from different coal-fired utility boilers were investigated. Moreover, concentration and distribution in airborne PAHs from different functional areas of power plants were studied. People's inhalatory and dermal exposures to airborne PAHs at these sites were estimated and their resultant lung cancer and skin cancer risks were assessed. Results indicated that the boiler capacity and operation conditions have significant effect on PAH concentrations in both PM10 and gas phases due to the variation of combustion efficiency, whereas they take neglected effect on PAH distributions. The wet flue gas desulphurization (WFGD) takes significant effect on the scavenging of PAH in both PM10 and gas phases, higher scavenging efficiency were found for less volatile PAHs. PAH partitioning is dominated by absorption into organic matter and accompanied by adsorption onto PM10 surface. In addition, different partitioning mechanism is observed for individual PAHs, which is assumed arising from their chemical affinity and vapor pressure. Risk assessment indicates that both inhalation and dermal contact greatly contribute to the cancer risk for CFPP workers and nearby residents. People working in workshop are exposed to greater inhalation and dermal exposure risk than people living in nearby vicinity and working office. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Ecological and health risk-based characterization of agricultural soils contaminated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the vicinity of a chemical plant in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Geng; Niu, Junjie; Guo, Wenjiong; An, Xiangsheng; Zhao, Long

2016-11-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from chemical plants can cause serious pollution of surrounding agricultural soils. A comprehensive study of agricultural soils was conducted in the vicinity of a chemical plant in China to characterize the soil PAH concentration, as well as their composition and sources. Human health and a screening-level ecological risk assessment were conducted for PAH contamination in agricultural soils. The results showed that the total concentrations of 16 priority PAHs ranged from 250.49 to 9387.26 ng g(-1), with an average of 2780.42 ng g(-1). High molecular weight PAHs (four to six rings) were the dominant component, accounting for more than 60% of all PAHs. Principal component analysis (PCA) and positive matrix factorization model (PMF) suggested that diesel emissions, coal combustion, coke ovens, and fuel combustion and gasoline emissions were the main sources of PAHs in agricultural soils. The ecological risk assessment results based on the effects range-low (ERL), the effects range-median (ERM), and the ecological screening levels (ESL) indicated that the exposure to ∑PAH16 was >ERL, >ERM, and ≥ERL and ESL at 78.1% of the soil sampling stations, and could induce biological effects in mammals. The Bapeq concentrations posed a potential carcinogenic risk to humans. Further risk management and control of soil PAHs in these agricultural soils is required to ensure the safety of the biocoenosis and human health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Risk factors for acute generalized exanthematous pustulosis (AGEP)-results of a multinational case-control study (EuroSCAR).

Science.gov (United States)

Sidoroff, A; Dunant, A; Viboud, C; Halevy, S; Bavinck, J N Bouwes; Naldi, L; Mockenhaupt, M; Fagot, J-P; Roujeau, J-C

2007-11-01

Acute generalized exanthematous pustulosis (AGEP) is a disease characterized by the rapid occurrence of many sterile, nonfollicular pustules usually arising on an oedematous erythema often accompanied by leucocytosis and fever. It is usually attributed to drugs. To evaluate the risk for different drugs of causing AGEP. A multinational case-control study (EuroSCAR) conducted to evaluate the risk for different drugs of causing severe cutaneous adverse reactions; the study included 97 validated community cases of AGEP and 1009 controls. Results Strongly associated drugs, i.e. drugs with a lower bound of the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the odds ratio (OR) > 5 were pristinamycin (CI 26-infinity), ampicillin/amoxicillin (CI 10-infinity), quinolones (CI 8.5-infinity), (hydroxy)chloroquine (CI 8-infinity), anti-infective sulphonamides (CI 7.1-infinity), terbinafine (CI 7.1-infinity) and diltiazem (CI 5.0-infinity). No significant risk was found for infections and a personal or family history of psoriasis (CI 0.7-2.2). Medications associated with AGEP differ from those associated with Stevens-Johnson syndrome or toxic epidermal necrolysis. Different timing patterns from drug intake to reaction onset were observed for different drugs. Infections, although possible triggers, played no prominent role in causing AGEP and there was no evidence that AGEP is a variant of pustular psoriasis.
Study on information dissemination for effective nuclear risk communication

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-08-15

The aim of this study are to develop an information system and guideline for nuclear risk communication between expert and citizens as well as between both experts in terms of lessons learned from serious disaster such as Fukushima Dai-ich NPP accident. Technical standards for disseminating a result and process of seismic/tsunami PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) of nuclear facility as well as nuclear risk information in an emergency, and risk communication in normal times are needed. Tins study examines the framework, contents, and technical basis for developing an information system for nuclear risk communication. In addition, this study identifies the communication issues of nuclear risk communication concerning the seismic/tsunami PRA through the testing information systems in areas around nuclear facilities and by providing effective implementation guidelines. JNES has developed the information system specified as Protection of Nuclear Power Plants against Tsunamis and Post Earthquake considerations in the External Zone (TiPEEZ) as part of IAEA International Seismic Safety Centre (ISSC) Extra Budgetary Programme (EBP). The EBP is currently preparing technical documents (TECDOC) regarding the implementation of the TiPEEZ. After the Fukushima accident, there has been increasing demand for disaster mitigation systems to share risk information between nuclear organizations and local municipalities. JNES and Niigata Institute of Technology conduct implementation of TiPEEZ for the practical use based on the corroborative works with Kashiwazaki city and citizens. (author)
Study on information dissemination for effective nuclear risk communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

The aim of this study are to develop an information system and guideline for nuclear risk communication between expert and citizens as well as between both experts in terms of lessons learned from serious disaster such as Fukushima Dai-ich NPP accident. Technical standards for disseminating a result and process of seismic/tsunami PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) of nuclear facility as well as nuclear risk information in an emergency, and risk communication in normal times are needed. Tins study examines the framework, contents, and technical basis for developing an information system for nuclear risk communication. In addition, this study identifies the communication issues of nuclear risk communication concerning the seismic/tsunami PRA through the testing information systems in areas around nuclear facilities and by providing effective implementation guidelines. JNES has developed the information system specified as Protection of Nuclear Power Plants against Tsunamis and Post Earthquake considerations in the External Zone (TiPEEZ) as part of IAEA International Seismic Safety Centre (ISSC) Extra Budgetary Programme (EBP). The EBP is currently preparing technical documents (TECDOC) regarding the implementation of the TiPEEZ. After the Fukushima accident, there has been increasing demand for disaster mitigation systems to share risk information between nuclear organizations and local municipalities. JNES and Niigata Institute of Technology conduct implementation of TiPEEZ for the practical use based on the corroborative works with Kashiwazaki city and citizens. (author)
Racing risk, gendering responsibility: a qualitative study of how ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Individuals' perceptions of risk have implications for whether and how they engage with protective strategies. This study investigated how sexual risk, specifically HIV and pregnancy and responsibility for these risks were constructed in discussions across five groups of youth in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The qualitative ...
Study on risk factors of PWR accidents beyond design basis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Seung Hoon; Nah, W. J.; Bang, Y. S.; Oh, D. Y.; Oh, S. H.

2005-01-01

Development of the regulatory guidelines for Beyond Design Basis Accidents (BDBA) with high risk requires a detailed investigation of major factors contributing to the event risk. In this study, each event was classified by the level of risk, based on the probabilistic safety assessment results, so that BDBA with high risk could be selected, with consideration of foreign and domestic regulations, and operating experiences. The regulatory requirements and technical backgrounds for the selected accidents were investigated, and effective regulatory approaches for risk reduction of the accidents. The following conclusions were drawn from this study: - Selected high risk BDBA is station blackout, anticipated without scram, total loss of feedwater. - Major contributors to the risk of selected events were investigated, and appropriate assessment of them was recommended for development of the regulatory guidelines
Updating risk prediction tools: a case study in prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Ankerst, Donna P; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G; Partin, Alan W; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M

2012-01-01

Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically, the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [-2]proPSA measured on an external case-control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Psychosocial stress as a risk factor for sepsis: a population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ojard, Connor; Donnelly, John P; Safford, Monika M; Griffin, Russell; Wang, Henry E

2015-01-01

To characterize the relationship between stress and future risk of sepsis. We also evaluated the role of depression in this relationship. We used population-based data on 30,183 participants in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke cohort, characterizing stress using the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) and depressive symptoms using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). We identified incident sepsis events as hospitalizations for a serious infection with the presence of at least two systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria. We assessed associations between PSS and incidence of sepsis for 1 and 10 years of follow-up, adjusting for demographics and chronic medical conditions and assessing the role of health behaviors and CES-D in these relationships. In 2003 to 2012, 1500 participants experienced an episode of sepsis. Mean PSS and CES-D scores were 3.2 (2.9) and 1.2 (2.1). PSS was associated with increased 1-year adjusted incidence of sepsis (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.21 per PSS standard deviation, 95% confidence interval = 1.06-1.38); multivariable adjustment for health behaviors and CES-D did not change this association (1.20, 1.03-1.39). PSS was also associated with increased 10-year adjusted incidence of sepsis (HR = 1.07 per PSS standard deviation; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.13). Multivariable adjustment showed that health behaviors did not affect this long-term association, whereas the addition of CES-D reduced the association between PSS and sepsis during 10-year follow-up (HR = 1.04, 0.98-1.11). Increased stress was associated with higher 1-year adjusted incidence of sepsis, even after accounting for depressive symptoms. The association between stress and 10-year adjusted incidence of sepsis was also significant, but this association was reduced when adjusting for depressive symptoms. Reduction of stress may limit short-term sepsis risk.
ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT RISK IN CRYPTOCURRENCY BITCOIN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kinga Kądziołka

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article was to evaluate the risks of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Particular attention was paid to the risk of investment on the Polish exchanges: Bitcurex, BitBay, BitMarket.pl and LocalBitcoins. To evaluate the risk there was used VaR measure. There were compared the risk of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency and the risk of investing in the selected "traditional" currencies. There was also paid attention to the effect of day of the week on the Bitcoin’s exchanges. The investment in cryptocurrency was characterized by higher risk than investing in “traditional” currencies. The Polish Bitcoin exchange LocalBitcoins was characterized by the highest risk and highest average daily rate of return.
Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation according to optimal, borderline, or elevated levels of risk factors: cohort study based on longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study

Science.gov (United States)

Staerk, Laila; Wang, Biqi; Preis, Sarah R; Larson, Martin G; Lubitz, Steven A; Ellinor, Patrick T; McManus, David D; Ko, Darae; Weng, Lu-Chen; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Frost, Lars; Benjamin, Emelia J

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine the association between risk factor burdens—categorized as optimal, borderline, or elevated—and the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. Design Community based cohort study. Setting Longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study. Participants Individuals free of atrial fibrillation at index ages 55, 65, and 75 years were assessed. Smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, and history of heart failure or myocardial infarction were assessed as being optimal (that is, all risk factors were optimal), borderline (presence of borderline risk factors and absence of any elevated risk factor), or elevated (presence of at least one elevated risk factor) at index age. Main outcome measure Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation at index age up to 95 years, accounting for the competing risk of death. Results At index age 55 years, the study sample comprised 5338 participants (2531 (47.4%) men). In this group, 247 (4.6%) had an optimal risk profile, 1415 (26.5%) had a borderline risk profile, and 3676 (68.9%) an elevated risk profile. The prevalence of elevated risk factors increased gradually when the index ages rose. For index age of 55 years, the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 37.0% (95% confidence interval 34.3% to 39.6%). The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 23.4% (12.8% to 34.5%) with an optimal risk profile, 33.4% (27.9% to 38.9%) with a borderline risk profile, and 38.4% (35.5% to 41.4%) with an elevated risk profile. Overall, participants with at least one elevated risk factor were associated with at least 37.8% lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. The gradient in lifetime risk across risk factor burden was similar at index ages 65 and 75 years. Conclusions Regardless of index ages at 55, 65, or 75 years, an optimal risk factor profile was associated with a lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation of about one in five; this risk rose to more than one in three in individuals with at least
Study on institutionalization of risk-informed performance-based regulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, M. G.; Hong, S. Y.; Seo, M. R. [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

2003-02-15

In this study, for the institutionalization of risk informed and performance based regulation in Korea, the latest technical movements of overseas countries are examined and reviewed. And the issues that was found when license change petition using risk information was submitted in Korean regulatory body are reviewed. Based on these review, the applicable areas to domestic situation will be found and proposed. This study can contribute to setting up the proper direction for the institutionalization of risk informed and performance based regulation.
RF EMF Risk Perception Revisited: Is the Focus on Concern Sufficient for Risk Perception Studies?

Science.gov (United States)

Wiedemann, Peter M.; Freudenstein, Frederik; Böhmert, Christoph; Wiart, Joe; Croft, Rodney J.

2017-01-01

An implicit assumption of risk perception studies is that concerns expressed in questionnaires reflect concerns in everyday life. The aim of the present study is to check this assumption, i.e., the extrapolability of risk perceptions expressed in a survey, to risk perceptions in everyday life. To that end, risk perceptions were measured by a multidimensional approach. In addition to the traditional focus on measuring the magnitude of risk perceptions, the thematic relevance (how often people think about a risk issue) and the discursive relevance (how often people think about or discuss a risk issue) of risk perceptions were also collected. Taking into account this extended view of risk perception, an online survey was conducted in six European countries with 2454 respondents, referring to radio frequency electromagnetic field (RF EMF) risk potentials from base stations, and access points, such as WiFi routers and cell phones. The findings reveal that the present study’s multidimensional approach to measuring risk perception provides a more differentiated understanding of RF EMF risk perception. High levels of concerns expressed in questionnaires do not automatically imply that these concerns are thematically relevant in everyday life. We use thematic relevance to distinguish between enduringly concerned (high concern according to both questionnaire and thematic relevance) and not enduringly concerned participants (high concern according to questionnaire but no thematic relevance). Furthermore, we provide data for the empirical value of this distinction: Compared to other participants, enduringly concerned subjects consider radio frequency electromagnetic field exposure to a greater extent as a moral and affective issue. They also see themselves as highly exposed to radio frequency electromagnetic fields. However, despite these differences, subjects with high levels of thematic relevance are nevertheless sensitive to exposure reduction as a means for improving the
The Role of the Gut Microbiome in Multiple Sclerosis Risk and Progression: Towards Characterization of the "MS Microbiome".

Science.gov (United States)

Pröbstel, Anne-Katrin; Baranzini, Sergio E

2018-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the prototypic complex disease, in which both genes and the environment contribute to its pathogenesis. To date, > 200 independent loci across the genome have been associated with MS risk. However, these only explain a fraction of the total phenotypic variance, suggesting the possible presence of additional genetic factors, and, most likely, also environmental factors. New DNA sequencing technologies have enabled the sequencing of all kinds of microorganisms, including those living in and around humans (i.e., microbiomes). The study of bacterial populations inhabiting the gut is of particular interest in autoimmune diseases owing to their key role in shaping immune responses. In this review, we address the potential crosstalk between B cells and the gut microbiota, a relevant scenario in light of recently approved anti-B-cell therapies for MS. In addition, we review recent efforts to characterize the gut microbiome in patients with MS and discuss potential challenges and future opportunities. Finally, we describe the international MS microbiome study, a multicenter effort to study a large population of patients with MS and their healthy household partners to define the core MS microbiome, how it is shaped by disease-modifying therapies, and to explore potential therapeutic interventions.

Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Yao

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution.
Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Hong; Li, Weixin; Qian, Xin

2015-01-01

Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI) to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution. PMID:26308032
Psychosocial risk factors, weight changes and risk of obesity: the Copenhagen City Heart Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Louise Bagger; Strandberg-Larsen, Katrine; Prescott, Eva

2012-01-01

The aim of the study was to establish the effects of a range of psychosocial factors on weight changes and risk of obesity. The study population consisted of the 4,753 participants in the third (1991-1994) and fourth wave (2001-2003) of the Copenhagen City Heart Study, Denmark. At baseline...... the participants were asked comprehensive questions on major life events, work stress, vital exhaustion, social network, economic hardship, and intake of sleep medication. Weight and height were measured by health professionals. Weight changes and incident obesity was used as outcome measures. The participants...... in the associations between social network, economic hardship and weight gain or obesity. The number of psychosocial risk factors, as an indicator for clustering, was not associated with weight gain or obesity. In conclusion, major life events and vital exhaustion seem to play a role for weight gain and risk...
Risk Management in Information Technology Project: An Empirical Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kornelius Irfandhi

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The companies are facing some risks due to changes in a dynamic environment. If risks are not managed properly, it will have some negative impacts on the companies at the present and the future. One important function of the Information Technology (IT governance is risk management. Risk management in IT project aims to provide a safe environment for IT projects undertaken. Risk management becomes an important process for the success of IT projects. This article discussed the risk of IT project and whether there was a relationship between risk management and the success of the project. The method used was performing a literature review of several scientific articles which published between 2010 and 2014. The results of this study are the presence of risk management and risk manager influence the success of the project. Risk analysis and risk monitoring and control also have a relationship with the subjective performance of IT projects. If risk management is applied properly, the chance of the success of the projects undertaken can be increased.
Pharmacokinetics and expert systems as aids for risk assessment in reproductive toxicology.

OpenAIRE

Mattison, D R; Jelovsek, F R

1987-01-01

A minimal approach to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology involves four components: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization. In practice, risk assessment in reproductive toxicology has been reduced to arbitrary safety factors or mathematical models of the dose-response relationship. These approaches obscure biological differences across species rather than using this important and frequently accessible information. Two approa...
Risk and return in oilfield asset holdings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kretzschmar, Gavin L.; Kirchner, Axel; Reusch, Hans

2008-01-01

Convention suggests that emerging market investment should provide commensurately lower risk or higher returns than comparable assets in developed countries. This study demonstrates that emerging markets contain regulatory specificities that challenge asset valuation model convergence and potentially invert risk return convention. 292 oilfield assets are used to provide evidence that, under upward oil prices, emerging markets are characterized by progressive state participation in oilfield cash flows. Specifically, this work advances the low oil price paradigm of prior oil and gas asset valuation studies and provides evidence that emerging market state participation terms limit the corporate value of globalization for the sector. (author)
Risk and return in oilfield asset holdings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kretzschmar, Gavin L.; Kirchner, Axel; Reusch, Hans [University of Edinburgh, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, The Management School (United Kingdom)

2008-11-15

Convention suggests that emerging market investment should provide commensurately lower risk or higher returns than comparable assets in developed countries. This study demonstrates that emerging markets contain regulatory specificities that challenge asset valuation model convergence and potentially invert risk return convention. 292 oilfield assets are used to provide evidence that, under upward oil prices, emerging markets are characterized by progressive state participation in oilfield cash flows. Specifically, this work advances the low oil price paradigm of prior oil and gas asset valuation studies and provides evidence that emerging market state participation terms limit the corporate value of globalization for the sector. (author)
Use of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS) for improving the accuracy of the risk classification of type 1 diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; Mahon, Jeffrey; Krischer, Jeffrey P; Greenbaum, Carla J; Rafkin, Lisa E; Beam, Craig A; Boulware, David C; Matheson, Della; Cuthbertson, David; Herold, Kevan C; Eisenbarth, George; Palmer, Jerry P

2014-04-01

OBJECTIVE We studied the utility of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS) for improving the accuracy of type 1 diabetes (T1D) risk classification in TrialNet Natural History Study (TNNHS) participants. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The cumulative incidence of T1D was compared between normoglycemic individuals with DPTRS values >7.00 and dysglycemic individuals in the TNNHS (n = 991). It was also compared between individuals with DPTRS values 7.00 among those with dysglycemia and those with multiple autoantibodies in the TNNHS. DPTRS values >7.00 were compared with dysglycemia for characterizing risk in Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) (n = 670) and TNNHS participants. The reliability of DPTRS values >7.00 was compared with dysglycemia in the TNNHS. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of T1D for normoglycemic TNNHS participants with DPTRS values >7.00 was comparable to those with dysglycemia. Among those with dysglycemia, the cumulative incidence was much higher (P 7.00 than for those with values 7.00). Dysglycemic individuals in DPT-1 were at much higher risk for T1D than those with dysglycemia in the TNNHS (P 7.00. The proportion in the TNNHS reverting from dysglycemia to normoglycemia at the next visit was higher than the proportion reverting from DPTRS values >7.00 to values <7.00 (36 vs. 23%). CONCLUSIONS DPTRS thresholds can improve T1D risk classification accuracy by identifying high-risk normoglycemic and low-risk dysglycemic individuals. The 7.00 DPTRS threshold characterizes risk more consistently between populations and has greater reliability than dysglycemia.
PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

1996-01-01

A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques
Power sector investment risk and renewable energy: A Japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharya, Anindya; Kojima, Satoshi

2012-01-01

The conventional pricing mechanism used for electricity systematically hides huge investment risks which are embedded in the overall cost of production. Although consumers are often unaware of these risks, they present a large financial burden on the economy. This study applies the portfolio optimization concepts from the field of finance to demonstrate the scope of greater utilization of renewable energies (RE) while reducing the embedded investment risk in the conventional electricity sector and its related financial burden. This study demonstrates that RE investment can compensate for the risks associated with the total input costs; such costs being external volatilities of fossil fuel prices, capital costs, operating and maintenance costs and the carbon costs. By means of example, this case study shows that Japan could in theory obtain up to 9% of its electricity supply from green sources, as compared to the present 1.37%, based on the utilization of a portfolio risk-analysis evaluation. Explicit comparison of the monetary values of the investment risks of conventional and renewable energy sources shows that renewable energies have high market competitiveness. The study concludes with a recommendation that, as a business objective, investors would benefit by focusing on electricity supply portfolio risk minimization instead of cost. This could also inherently increase the supply of renewable energy in the market. - Research highlights: ►Energy sector investors should not be bothered only about the absolute cost figures of the input factors like fossil fuels but should also be careful about the fluctuation of their costs while making the investment decisions. ►Inclusion of renewable energy in the investment portfolio can increase the cost apparently but can reduce the risk hedging costs, too. ►International carbon price may not be a good factor to encourage renewable energy investment in the market.
Racing risk, gendering responsibility: a qualitative study of how South African students talk about sexual risk and responsibility.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Riet, Mary; Nicholson, Tamaryn Jane

2014-01-01

Individuals' perceptions of risk have implications for whether and how they engage with protective strategies. This study investigated how sexual risk, specifically HIV and pregnancy and responsibility for these risks were constructed in discussions across five groups of youth in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The qualitative study used focus groups and interviews with a sample of 28 tertiary level students and 7 peri-urban youth. The constructions of risk intersected with raced and gendered narratives around sexual risk and responsibility. These constructions were used by the participants to assign and displace responsibility for the risks of HIV and pregnancy, rendering some groups immune to these risks. This constitutes a form of stigmatisation and also has implications for participants' prevention practices.
The rationale/design of the Guimarães/Vizela study: a multimodal population-based cohort study to determine global cardiovascular risk and disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunha, Pedro Guimarães; Cotter, Jorge; Oliveira, Pedro; Vila, Isabel; Sousa, Nuno

2014-06-01

Cardiovascular disease and dementia are growing medical and social problems in aging societies. Appropriate knowledge of cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline risk factors (RFs) are critical for global CVR health preventive intervention. Many epidemiological studies use case definition based on data collected/measured in a single visit, a fact that can overestimate prevalence rates and distant from clinical practice demanding criteria. Portugal displays an elevated stroke mortality rate. However, population's global CV risk characterization is limited, namely, considering traditional/nontraditional RF and new intermediate phenotypes of CV and renal disease. Association of hemodynamic variables (pulse wave velocity and central blood pressure) with global CVR stratification, cognitive performance, and kidney disease are practically inexistent at a dwelling population level. After reviewing published data, we designed a population-based cohort study to analyze the prevalence of these cardiovascular RFs and intermediate phenotypes, using random sampling of adult dwellers living in 2 adjacent cities. Strict definition of phenotypes was planned: subjects were observed twice, and several hemodynamic and other biological variables measured at least 3 months apart. Three thousand thirty-eight subjects were enrolled, and extensive data collection (including central and peripheral blood pressure, pulse wave velocity), sample processing, and biobank edification were carried out. One thousand forty-seven cognitive evaluations were performed. Seeking for CV risk reclassification, early identification of subjects at risk, and evidence of early vascular aging and cognitive and renal function decline, using the strict daily clinical practice criteria, will lead to better resource allocation in preventive measures at a population level.
Methods for Addressing Uncertainty and Variability to Characterize Potential Health Risk From Trichloroethylene-Contaminated Ground Water Beale Air Force Base in California: Integration of Uncertainty and Variability in Pharmacokinetics and Dose-Response; TOPICAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogen, K.T.

1999-01-01

Traditional estimates of health risk are typically inflated, particularly if cancer is the dominant endpoint and there is fundamental uncertainty as to mechanism(s) of action. Risk is more realistically characterized if it accounts for joint uncertainty and interindividual variability after applying a unified probabilistic approach to the distributed parameters of all (linear as well as nonlinear) risk-extrapolation models involved. Such an approach was applied to characterize risks to potential future residents posed by trichloroethylene (TCE) in ground water at an inactive landfill site on Beale Air Force Base in California. Variability and uncertainty were addressed in exposure-route-specific estimates of applied dose, in pharmacokinetically based estimates of route-specific metabolized fractions of absorbed TCE, and in corresponding biologically effective doses estimated under a genotoxic/linear (MA(sub g)) vs. a cytotoxic/nonlinear (MA(sub c)) mechanistic assumption for TCE-induced cancer. Increased risk conditional on effective dose was estimated under MA(sub G) based on seven rodent-bioassay data sets, and under MA, based on mouse hepatotoxicity data. Mean and upper-bound estimates of combined risk calculated by the unified approach were and lt;10(sup -6) and and lt;10(sup -4), respectively, while corresponding estimates based on traditional deterministic methods were and gt;10(sup -5) and and gt;10(sup -4), respectively. It was estimated that no TCE-related harm is likely occur due any plausible residential exposure scenario involving the site. The unified approach illustrated is particularly suited to characterizing risks that involve uncertain and/or diverse mechanisms of action
Reactor risk reference document: Appendices J-O, Draft for comment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-02-01

This document discusses the risks of severe accidents in a set of commercial nuclear power plants. This risk is characterized by the types and frequencies of accidents leading to severe core damage, the performance of containment structures under severe accident loadings, possible radioactive releases into the environment if the containment were to fail, and the offsite consequences of such releases. This volume provides discussions of NRC staff analyses of specific technical and regulatory issues, compares present risk results with those of other studies, and describes computer codes used in the risk analyses
Risk for Researchers Studying Social Deviance or Criminal Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia L. Brougham

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract: Researchers often encounter dangerous situations while conducting social research. The concept of risk to researchers refers to the possible harm that may occur to researchers while in the field or after leaving a research project. This study explores issues experienced by social scientists engaged in research on social deviance or criminal behavior. The goal of this research was to discover the types of risk experienced by social scientists and any mediating factors affecting the experience of risk. An online survey was conducted to gather data on issues experienced by social scientists. This study found that researchers experienced a variety of risks within the categories of physical/health, emotional, legal, and personal/professional. Each of the survey options for risk were reported by at least one respondent; however, the greatest number of risks reported were of an emotional or personal/professional nature. There were no mediating factors found to be significant in relation to the experience of risk. This was a surprising finding especially for the variable of gender as it is suggested that gender plays a role in the experience of difficulties.
Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

Science.gov (United States)

Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

2007-02-01

A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.
Recent case studies and advancements in probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1985-01-01

During the period from 1977 to 1984, Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc., had the lead in preparing several full scope probabilistic risk assessments for electric utilities. Five of those studies are discussed from the point of view of advancements and lessons learned. The objective and trend of these studies is toward utilization of the risk models by the plant owners as risk management tools. Advancements that have been made are in presentation ad documentation of the PRAs, generation of more understandable plant level information, and improvements in methodology to facilitate technology transfer. Specific areas of advancement are in the treatment of such issues as dependent failures, human interaction, and the uncertainty in the source term. Lessons learned cover a wide spectrum and include the importance of plant specific models for meaningful risk management, the role of external events in risk, the sensitivity of contributors to choice of risk index, and the very important finding that the public risk is extremely small. The future direction of PRA is to establish less dependence on experts for in-plant application. Computerizing the PRAs such that they can be accessed on line and interactively is the key
Effective return, risk aversion and drawdowns

Science.gov (United States)

Dacorogna, Michel M.; Gençay, Ramazan; Müller, Ulrich A.; Pictet, Olivier V.

2001-01-01

We derive two risk-adjusted performance measures for investors with risk averse preferences. Maximizing these measures is equivalent to maximizing the expected utility of an investor. The first measure, Xeff, is derived assuming a constant risk aversion while the second measure, Reff, is based on a stronger risk aversion to clustering of losses than of gains. The clustering of returns is captured through a multi-horizon framework. The empirical properties of Xeff, Reff are studied within the context of real-time trading models for foreign exchange rates and their properties are compared to those of more traditional measures like the annualized return, the Sharpe Ratio and the maximum drawdown. Our measures are shown to be more robust against clustering of losses and have the ability to fully characterize the dynamic behaviour of investment strategies.
Lifetime prevalence, age of risk, and genetic relationships of comorbid psychiatric disorders in Tourette syndrome

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hirschtritt, M.E.; Lee, P.C.; Pauls, D.L.; Dion, Y.; Grados, M.A.; Illmann, C.; King, R.A.; Sandor, P.; McMahon, W.M.; Lyon, G.J.; Cath, D.C.; Kurlan, R.; Robertson, M.M.; Osiecki, L.; Scharf, J.M.; Mathews, C.A.; Posthuma, D.; Singer, H.S.; Yu, D.; Cox, N.J.; Freimer, N.B.; Budman, C.L.; Chouinard, S.; Rouleau, G.; Barr, C.L.

2015-01-01

Importance: Tourette syndrome (TS) is characterized by high rates of psychiatric comorbidity; however, fewstudies have fully characterized these comorbidities. Furthermore, most studies have included relatively fewparticipants (< 200), and none has examined the ages of highest risk for each
Eielson Air Force Base OU-1 baseline risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jarvis, M.T.; Jarvis, T.T.; Van Houten, N.C.; Lewis, R.E.

1993-09-01

This Baseline Risk Assessment report is the second volume in a set of three volumes for operable Unit 1 (OU-1). The companion documents contain the Remedial Investigation and the Feasibility Study. Operable Unit 1 (OU-1) is one of several groups of hazardous waste sites located at Eielson Air Force Base (AFB) near Fairbanks, Alaska. The operable units at Eielson are typically characterized by petroleum, oil, lubricant/solvent contamination, and by the presence of organics floating at the water table. In 1989 and 1990, firms under contract to the Air Force conducted field studies to gather information about the extent of chemical contamination in soil, groundwater, and soil air pore space (soil gas) at the site. This report documents the results of a baseline risk assessment, which uses the 1989 and 1991 site characterization database to quantify the potential human health risk associated with past Base industrial activities in the vicinity of OU-1. Background data collected in 1992 were also used in the preparation of this report

Probabilistic environmental risk assessment of five nanomaterials (nano-TiO2, nano-Ag, nano-ZnO, CNT, and fullerenes).

Science.gov (United States)

Coll, Claudia; Notter, Dominic; Gottschalk, Fadri; Sun, Tianyin; Som, Claudia; Nowack, Bernd

2016-01-01

The environmental risks of five engineered nanomaterials (nano-TiO2, nano-Ag, nano-ZnO, CNT, and fullerenes) were quantified in water, soils, and sediments using probabilistic Species Sensitivity Distributions (pSSDs) and probabilistic predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). For water and soil, enough ecotoxicological endpoints were found for a full risk characterization (between 17 and 73 data points per nanomaterial for water and between 4 and 20 for soil) whereas for sediments, the data availability was not sufficient. Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNECs) were obtained from the pSSD and used to calculate risk characterization ratios (PEC/PNEC). For most materials and environmental compartments, exposure and effect concentrations were separated by several orders of magnitude. Nano-ZnO in freshwaters and nano-TiO2 in soils were the combinations where the risk characterization ratio was closest to one, meaning that these are compartment/ENM combinations to be studied in more depth with the highest priority. The probabilistic risk quantification allows us to consider the large variability of observed effects in different ecotoxicological studies and the uncertainty in modeled exposure concentrations. The risk characterization results presented in this work allows for a more focused investigation of environmental risks of nanomaterials by consideration of material/compartment combinations where the highest probability for effects with predicted environmental concentrations is likely.
Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of
The German risk study. Pt. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burkart, K.

1980-01-01

A severe nuclear power plant accident can be followed by a considerable release of radioactive effluents into the atmosphere. Due to atmospheric dispersion, areas of different sizes can be contaminated. The corresponding doses can cause early illnesses, early fatalities, latent effects and genetic effects. They are accompanied by economic effects. Within the consequence model of the German Risk Study, early and late fatalities and genetically significant doses are calculated. The calculations are based on real data or phenomena such as the population around 19, present or future German sites, or 115 real weather sequences, as well as on models such as an atmospheric dispersion model, a dose model, a model of protective actions or a health effects model. Within this lecture, the consequence model applied in the German Risk Study will be discussed in detail and the results will be presented. (orig./RW)
Automated Risk Assessment for School Violence: a Pilot Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Barzman, Drew; Ni, Yizhao; Griffey, Marcus; Bachtel, Alycia; Lin, Kenneth; Jackson, Hannah; Sorter, Michael; DelBello, Melissa

2018-05-01

School violence has increased over the past ten years. This study evaluated students using a more standard and sensitive method to help identify students who are at high risk for school violence. 103 participants were recruited through Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center (CCHMC) from psychiatry outpatient clinics, the inpatient units, and the emergency department. Participants (ages 12-18) were active students in 74 traditional schools (i.e. non-online education). Collateral information was gathered from guardians before participants were evaluated. School risk evaluations were performed with each participant, and audio recordings from the evaluations were later transcribed and manually annotated. The BRACHA (School Version) and the School Safety Scale (SSS), both 14-item scales, were used. A template of open-ended questions was also used. This analysis included 103 participants who were recruited from 74 different schools. Of the 103 students evaluated, 55 were found to be moderate to high risk and 48 were found to be low risk based on the paper risk assessments including the BRACHA and SSS. Both the BRACHA and the SSS were highly correlated with risk of violence to others (Pearson correlations>0.82). There were significant differences in BRACHA and SSS total scores between low risk and high risk to others groups (p-values machine learning algorithm achieved an AUC of 91.02% when using the interview content to predict risk of school violence, and the AUC increased to 91.45% when demographic and socioeconomic data were added. Our study indicates that the BRACHA and SSS are clinically useful for assessing risk for school violence. The machine learning algorithm was highly accurate in assessing school violence risk.
Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid identifying and characterizing the nature of multihazard risk at the global scale. For this...
Achieving the sustainable development goals: a case study of the complexity of water quality health risks in Malawi.

Science.gov (United States)

Holm, Rochelle; Wandschneider, Philip; Felsot, Allan; Msilimba, Golden

2016-07-15

Suppose 35 % of the households with children under 5 years of age in a low-income suburban neighborhood in a developing country have diarrhea where improved water sources are available. Clearly, something is amiss-but what? In addition to focusing on the need to examine water quality among water sources that meet the 'improved' category when assessing health risk, the relative importance of the range of transmission routes for diarrhea is unknown. In Malawi, relevant baseline data affecting human health are simply not available, and acquiring data is hampered by a lack of local analytical capacity for characterizing drinking water quality. The objective of this work is to develop a risk communication program with partnership among established regional development professionals for effectively meeting the sustainable development goals. A field study was conducted in the city of Mzuzu, Malawi, to study water quality (total coliform and Escherichia coli) and human dimensions leading to development of a public health risk communication strategy in a peri-urban area. A structured household questionnaire was administered to adult residents of 51 households, encompassing 284 individuals, who were using the 30 monitored shallow wells. The water quality data and human dimension questionnaire results were used to develop a household risk presentation. Sixty-seven percent and 50 % of well water and household drinking water samples, respectively, exceeded the WHO health guideline of zero detections of E. coli. Technology transfer was advanced by providing knowledge through household risk debriefing/education, establishing a water quality laboratory at the local university, and providing training to local technicians. Communicating the science of water quality and health risks in developing countries requires sample collection and analysis by knowledgeable personnel trained in the sciences, compiling baseline data, and, ultimately, an effective risk presentation back to
Education and hypertension: impact on global cardiovascular risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Chiara, Tiziana; Scaglione, Alessandra; Corrao, Salvatore; Argano, Christiano; Pinto, Antonio; Scaglione, Rosario

2017-10-01

Improving cardiovascular risk prediction continues to be a major challenge and effective prevention of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, several studies have recently reported on the role of cardiovascular risk education. This study was designed to evaluate the impact of education on global cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients. The study population consisted of 223 consecutive hypertensive outpatients. Their educational status was categorized according to the number of years of formal education as follows: (1) low education (less than 10 years) and (2) medium-high education (10-15 years). In both groups, cardiometabolic comorbidities, global cardiovascular risk and echocardiographic measurements were analysed. Less educated hypertensive subjects were characterized by a significantly higher prevalence of patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) (p educated hypertensive subjects. In the same subjects, a significant increase in microalbuminuria (MA) (p education (r = -0.45; p Education was independently (p education may be considered the best predictor of global cardiovascular risk in hypertensives and thus has to be evaluated in the strategies of hypertension and cardiovascular risk management.
An examination of emotion regulation, temperament, and parenting style as potential predictors of adolescent depression risk status: a correlational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Betts, Jennifer; Gullone, Eleonora; Allen, J Sabura

2009-06-01

Given that depression is a debilitating disorder, it is critical that we advance our understanding about the aetiology of this disorder. This study investigated both traditional (temperament and parenting) and novel (emotion regulation strategy) risk factors associated with adolescent depression. Forty-four adolescents (12-16 years; 64% females) with high scores on a self-report depressive symptomatology questionnaire were compared to a similar group of 44 adolescents with low scores, matched for age, gender, and ethnicity. Significant group differences were present on all assessed risk factors. The presence of high depressive symptomatology was found to be associated with (1) low levels of temperamentally based positive mood, flexibility, and approach behaviours, (2) a parenting style characterized by low nurturance and high overprotection, and (3) emotion regulation characterized by higher levels of expressive suppression and lower levels of cognitive reappraisal. It was concluded that, in addition to specific temperament characteristics and parenting style, use of particular emotion regulation strategies is associated with varying levels of depressive symptomatology. These findings reinforce the importance of incorporating emotion regulation into explanatory models of depression symptomatology. Further research that tests the direction of effects for these cross-sectional findings is warranted.
Adaptive risk management using new risk perspectives – an example from the oil and gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjerga, Torbjørn; Aven, Terje

2015-01-01

This article discusses management of risk in the case of large uncertainties and the use of adaptive risk management in such situations. This type of management is based on the acknowledgement that one best decision cannot be made, but rather, a set of alternatives should be dynamically tracked to gain information and knowledge about the effects of different courses of action. In the article, we study a case from the oil and gas industry, the main aim being to gain insights into how adaptive risk management could be implemented when giving due attention to the knowledge and uncertainty aspects of risk. In recent years, several authors have argued for the adoption of some new types of risk perspectives, which highlight uncertainties and knowledge in the way risk is understood and measured — this article uses these perspectives as the basis for the discussion. - Highlights: • Demonstrates a new perspective on adaptive risk management. • The perspective highlights uncertainty and knowledge, not only probability. • Illustrates the perspective on an oil and gas case, which is characterized by deep uncertainties
Risk of cardiovascular disease? A qualitative study of risk interpretation among patients with high cholesterol

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkegaard, P.; Edwards, A.; Risor, M. B.

2013-01-01

Background: Previous studies have shown the importance of paying attention to lay peoples' interpretations of risk of disease, in order to explain health-related behavior. However, risk interpretations interplay with social context in complex ways. The objective was to explore how asymptomatic...
Cerium(III) molybdate nanoparticles: Synthesis, characterization and radionuclides adsorption studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yousefi, Taher, E-mail: Taher_yosefy@yahoo.com [NFCRS, Nuclear Science and Technology Institute, Kargher Ave, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Tarbiat Moallem University, Mofatteh Ave, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Khanchi, Ali Reza; Ahmadi, Seyed Javad [NFCRS, Nuclear Science and Technology Institute, Kargher Ave, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Rofouei, Mohamad Kazem [Tarbiat Moallem University, Mofatteh Ave, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Yavari, Ramin; Davarkhah, Reza; Myanji, Behzad [NFCRS, Nuclear Science and Technology Institute, Kargher Ave, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2012-05-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A new inorganic nanoparticles with average size about 40 nm were synthesized by chemical method. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The morphology studies reveal existing nanowires among dense nanoparticles. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Investigation shows it has high stability in rough media and high affinity for Cs(I), U(VI), and Th(IV). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It was used for adsorption of radionuclides and removal of {sup 134}Cs from real sample. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer These findings are important for evaluating human and environmental risk assessment. - Abstract: Cerium(III) molybdate nanostructure with average size about 40 nm was prepared by adding cerium(III) chloride and ammonium molybdate solutions under varying conditions. The product was characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and Brunauere Emmette Teller (BET) techniques. Ion exchange capacity of the sample for potassium ion and distribution coefficients (K{sub d}) for 23 metal ions were determined, the K{sub d} values for Tl(I), Pb(II), Th(IV), U(VI), and Cs(I) ions were found to be sufficiently high for their removal from various effluents. The adsorption behavior of the sample towards Cs(I){sub 134} species were studied. Finally, the binary separation of Dy(III)-U(VI), Sm(III)-Th(IV) and Cs(I)-Rb(I) and removal of Cs(I){sub 134} from the real sample were successfully achieved.
[Risk factors for Parkinson disease: an epidemiologic study].

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, Duarte; Garrett, Carolina

2010-01-01

The etiology of Parkinson's disease (PD) remains in a certain part unknown. Both genetic susceptibility and environmental factors are sometimes considered to be putative contributors to its origin. Recent epidemiologic studies have focused on the possible role of environmental risk factors present during adult life or aging, once pure genetic forms of PD are rare. The purpose of this study was to investigate possible environmental and familial risk factors for PD. We performed a hospital based case-control study using 88 PD patients with neurologist confirmed diagnostic, and 176 sex, age, and residence similar controls. Several possible risk factors were evaluated related to life style, past history, family history, occupational history and other exposures to potential neurotoxin agents. Statistical differences, using a 95% confidence interval, were observed in positive family history of PD (p = 0,002), occupation category (p = 0,001), rural living (p = 0,037), living/working near a industry (p = 0,017), exposure to pesticides, herbicides and in-secticides (p coffee consumption (p = 0,036) and tea consumption (p = 0,001). Sex and age adjusted logistic regression showed as potential risk factors, a positive family history of PD (odds ratio [OR] = 9,996; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2,19-45,597), blue collar occupations (OR = 3,967; 95% CI = 1,670-9,426), exposure to pesticides, herbicides and insecticides (OR = 2,619 ; 95% CI = 1,170-5,862). An inverse relationship was found between tea consumption and the risk of PD (OR = 0,356; 95% CI = 0,174-0,727). The results of the study show that both familial and environmental factors may contribute to the development of PD. Like other studies suggest, PD is of unknown, but presumably multifactorial etiology.
Social amplification of risk: An empirical study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burns, W.; Slovic, P.; Kasperson, R.; Kasperson, J.; Renn, O.; Emani, S.

1990-09-01

The social amplification of risk is a theoretical framework that addresses an important deficiency of formal risk assessment methods and procedures. Typically assessments of risk from technological mishaps have been based upon the expected number of people who could be killed or injured or the amount of property that might be damaged. The diverse and consequential impacts that followed in the aftermath of the Three Mile Island accident make it clear that risk assessments that exclude the role of public perceptions of risk will greatly underestimate the potential costs of certain types of hazards. The accident at Three Mile Island produced no direct fatalities and few, if any, expected deaths due to cancer, yet few other accidents in history have had such costly societal impacts. The experience of amplified impacts argues for the development of a broadened theoretical and methodological perspective capable of integrating technical assessment of risk with public perceptions. This report presents the results to date in an ongoing research effort to better understand the complex processes by which adverse events produce impacts. In particular this research attempts to construct a framework that can account for those events that have produced, or are capable of producing, greater societal impacts than would be forecast by traditional risk assessment methods. This study demonstrates that the social amplification of risk involves interactions between sophisticated technological hazards, public and private institutions, and subtle individual and public perceptions and behaviors. These factors, and the variables underlying the intricate processes of social amplification that occur in modern society, are not fully defined and clarified in this report. 19 refs., 9 figs., 10 tabs
Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

1987-01-01

The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)
WRAP Module 1 sampling strategy and waste characterization alternatives study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bergeson, C.L.

1994-09-30

The Waste Receiving and Processing Module 1 Facility is designed to examine, process, certify, and ship drums and boxes of solid wastes that have a surface dose equivalent of less than 200 mrem/h. These wastes will include low-level and transuranic wastes that are retrievably stored in the 200 Area burial grounds and facilities in addition to newly generated wastes. Certification of retrievably stored wastes processing in WRAP 1 is required to meet the waste acceptance criteria for onsite treatment and disposal of low-level waste and mixed low-level waste and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Waste Acceptance Criteria for the disposal of TRU waste. In addition, these wastes will need to be certified for packaging in TRUPACT-II shipping containers. Characterization of the retrievably stored waste is needed to support the certification process. Characterization data will be obtained from historical records, process knowledge, nondestructive examination nondestructive assay, visual inspection of the waste, head-gas sampling, and analysis of samples taken from the waste containers. Sample characterization refers to the method or methods that are used to test waste samples for specific analytes. The focus of this study is the sample characterization needed to accurately identify the hazardous and radioactive constituents present in the retrieved wastes that will be processed in WRAP 1. In addition, some sampling and characterization will be required to support NDA calculations and to provide an over-check for the characterization of newly generated wastes. This study results in the baseline definition of WRAP 1 sampling and analysis requirements and identifies alternative methods to meet these requirements in an efficient and economical manner.
WRAP Module 1 sampling strategy and waste characterization alternatives study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergeson, C.L.

1994-01-01

The Waste Receiving and Processing Module 1 Facility is designed to examine, process, certify, and ship drums and boxes of solid wastes that have a surface dose equivalent of less than 200 mrem/h. These wastes will include low-level and transuranic wastes that are retrievably stored in the 200 Area burial grounds and facilities in addition to newly generated wastes. Certification of retrievably stored wastes processing in WRAP 1 is required to meet the waste acceptance criteria for onsite treatment and disposal of low-level waste and mixed low-level waste and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Waste Acceptance Criteria for the disposal of TRU waste. In addition, these wastes will need to be certified for packaging in TRUPACT-II shipping containers. Characterization of the retrievably stored waste is needed to support the certification process. Characterization data will be obtained from historical records, process knowledge, nondestructive examination nondestructive assay, visual inspection of the waste, head-gas sampling, and analysis of samples taken from the waste containers. Sample characterization refers to the method or methods that are used to test waste samples for specific analytes. The focus of this study is the sample characterization needed to accurately identify the hazardous and radioactive constituents present in the retrieved wastes that will be processed in WRAP 1. In addition, some sampling and characterization will be required to support NDA calculations and to provide an over-check for the characterization of newly generated wastes. This study results in the baseline definition of WRAP 1 sampling and analysis requirements and identifies alternative methods to meet these requirements in an efficient and economical manner
Characterization and Health Risk Assessment of Volatile Organic Compounds in Gas Service Station Workers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Duangduan Yimrungruang

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Gas service station workers who work near volatile organic compounds (VOCs sources, such as gasoline vapor emissions, and motor vehicle exhausts, may be exposed to highly elevated VOCs levels. This study investigates air samples from gas service stations in Thailand to evaluate the health risks following inhalation exposure. Personal air samplings were obtained at nine gas service stations in Chonburi, Thailand from October to December 2007. The concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes, and hexane in the air from the workplaces were significantly higher than in a control group of office workers (p<0.05. However, all VOCs in these air samples were lower than TWA limit of Thailand and the OSHA standard. Samples of urine, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed for VOCs metabolites, including t,t muconic acid, hippuric acid, mandelic acid and m-hippuric acid, demonstrate that the average levels of metabolites in gas service station workers and in controls were close, except for t,t muconic acid of gas service station workers which displayed higher levels than the in the controls. The lifetime cancer and noncancer risks for the workers exposed to VOCs were also assessed. Results show that all nine gas service stations in this study had a elevated lifetime cancer risk ranging from 53 to 630 per million, thus exceeding the normal risk of 1 per million. For noncancer risks, the levels in all gas stations ranged between 0.03 and 0.4, which is well below the reference hazard level of 1.0. Benzene may the most important cause of both cancer and noncancer risk followed by 1,3 butadiene.
Risk prediction of major complications in individuals with diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Parrinello, C M; Matsushita, K; Woodward, M; Wagenknecht, L E; Coresh, J; Selvin, E

2016-09-01

To develop a prediction equation for 10-year risk of a combined endpoint (incident coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, lower extremity hospitalizations) in people with diabetes, using demographic and clinical information, and a panel of traditional and non-traditional biomarkers. We included in the study 654 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a prospective cohort study, with diagnosed diabetes (visit 2; 1990-1992). Models included self-reported variables (Model 1), clinical measurements (Model 2), and glycated haemoglobin (Model 3). Model 4 tested the addition of 12 blood-based biomarkers. We compared models using prediction and discrimination statistics. Successive stages of model development improved risk prediction. The C-statistics (95% confidence intervals) of models 1, 2, and 3 were 0.667 (0.64, 0.70), 0.683 (0.65, 0.71), and 0.694 (0.66, 0.72), respectively (p < 0.05 for differences). The addition of three traditional and non-traditional biomarkers [β-2 microglobulin, creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and cystatin C-based eGFR] to Model 3 significantly improved discrimination (C-statistic = 0.716; p = 0.003) and accuracy of 10-year risk prediction for major complications in people with diabetes (midpoint percentiles of lowest and highest deciles of predicted risk changed from 18-68% to 12-87%). These biomarkers, particularly those of kidney filtration, may help distinguish between people at low versus high risk of long-term major complications. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer: A Swedish population-based cohort study of competing risks and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Science.gov (United States)

Häggström, Christel; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke; Garmo, Hans; Robinson, David; Stattin, Pär; Rowley, Mark; Coolen, Anthony C C; Holmberg, Lars

2018-05-09

Most previous studies of prostate cancer have not taken into account that men in the studied populations are also at risk of competing event, and that these men may have different susceptibility to prostate cancer risk. The aim of this study was to investigate heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer, using a recently developed latent class regression method for competing risks. We further aimed to elucidate the association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and prostate cancer risk, and to compare the results with conventional methods for survival analysis. We analysed the risk of prostate cancer in 126,482 men from the comparison cohort of the Prostate Cancer Data base Sweden (PCBaSe) 3.0. During a mean follow-up of 6 years 6,036 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 22,393 men died. We detected heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer with two distinct latent classes in the study population. The smaller class included 9% of the study population in which men had a higher risk of prostate cancer and the risk was stronger associated with class membership than any of the covariates included in the study. Moreover, we found no association between T2DM and risk of prostate cancer after removal of the effect of informative censoring due to competing risks. The recently developed latent class for competing risks method could be used to provide new insights in precision medicine with the target to classify individuals regarding different susceptibility to a particular disease, reaction to a risk factor or response to treatment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 UICC.
An example postclosure risk assessment using the potential Yucca Mountain Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doctor, P.G.; Eslinger, P.W.; Elwood, D.M.; Engel, D.W.; Freshley, M.D.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Reimus, P.W.; Strenge, D.L.; Tanner, J.E.; Van Luik, A.E.

1992-05-01

The risk analysis described in this document was performed for the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) over a 2-year time period ending in June 1988. The objective of Pacific Northwest Laboratory's (PNL) task was to demonstrate an integrated, though preliminary, modeling approach for estimating the postclosure risk associated with a geologic repository for the disposal of high-level nuclear waste. The modeling study used published characterization data for the proposed candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, along with existing models and computer codes available at that time. Some of the site data and conceptual models reported in the Site Characterization Plan published in December 1988, however, were not yet available at the time that PNL conducted the modeling studies

Polygenic risk and the development and course of asthma: Evidence from a 4-decade longitudinal study

Science.gov (United States)

Belsky, DW; Sears, MR; Hancox, RJ; Harrington, HL; Houts, R; Moffitt, TE; Sugden, K; Williams, B; Poulton, R; Caspi, A

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have discovered loci that predispose to asthma. To integrate these new discoveries with emerging models of asthma pathobiology, research is needed to test how genetic discoveries relate to developmental and biological characteristics of asthma. METHODS We derived a multi-locus profile of genetic risk from published GWAS of asthma case status. We then tested associations between this “genetic risk score” and developmental and biological characteristics of asthma in a population-based long-running birth cohort, the Dunedin Longitudinal Study (n=1,037). We evaluated asthma onset, persistence, atopy, airway hyperresponsiveness, incompletely reversible airflow obstruction, and asthma-related school and work absenteeism and hospitalization during 9 prospective assessments spanning ages 9–38 years, when 95% of surviving cohort members were seen. INTERPRETATION Cohort members at higher genetic risk experienced asthma onset earlier in life (HR=1.12 [1.01–1.26]). Childhood-onset asthma cases at higher genetic risk were more likely to become life-course-persistent asthma cases (RR=1.36 [1.14–1.63]). Asthma cases at higher genetic risk more often manifested atopy (RR=1.07 [1.01–1.14]), airway hyperresponsiveness (RR=1.16 [1.03–1.32]), and incompletely reversible airflow obstruction (RR=1.28 [1.04–1.57]). They were also more likely to miss school or work due to asthma (IRR=1.38 [1.02–1.86]) and to be hospitalized with breathing problems (HR=1.38 [1.07–1.79]). Genotypic information about asthma risk was independent of and additive to information derived from cohort members’ family histories of asthma. CONCLUSIONS Findings from this population study confirm that GWAS-discoveries for asthma associate with a childhood-onset phenotype and advance asthma genetics beyond the original GWAS-discoveries in three ways: (1) We show that genetic risks predict which childhood-onset asthma cases remit and which become
Probability-of-success studies for geothermal projects: from subsurface data to geological risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Schumacher, Sandra; Pierau, Roberto; Wirth, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

In recent years, the development of geothermal plants in Germany has increased significantly due to a favorable political setting and resulting financial incentives. However, most projects are developed by local communities or private investors, which cannot afford a project to fail. To cover the risk of total loss if the geothermal well should not provide the energy output necessary for an economically viable project, investors try to procure insurances for this worst case scenario. In order to issue such insurances, the insurance companies insist on so called probability-of-success studies (POS studies), in which the geological risk for not achieving the necessary temperatures and/or flow rates for an economically successful project is quantified. Quantifying the probability of reaching a minimum temperature, which has to be defined by the project investors, is relatively straight forward as subsurface temperatures in Germany are comparatively well known due tens of thousands of hydrocarbon wells. Moreover, for the German Molasse Basin a method to characterize the hydraulic potential of a site based on pump test analysis has been developed and refined in recent years. However, to quantify the probability of reaching a given flow rate with a given drawdown is much more challenging in areas where pump test data are generally not available (e.g. the North German Basin). Therefore, a new method based on log and core derived porosity and permeability data was developed to quantify the geological risk of reaching a determined flow rate in such areas. We present both methods for POS studies and show how subsurface data such as pump tests or log and core measurements can be used to predict the chances of a potential geothermal project from a geological point of view.
On Modeling Risk Shocks

OpenAIRE

Dorofeenko, Victor; Lee, Gabriel; Salyer, Kevin; Strobel, Johannes

2016-01-01

Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) and high-risk (relatively large second moment for productivity) and the fraction of both types is...
Radiological social risk perception: something more than experts/ public discrepancies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prades Lopez, Ana; Gonzalez Reyes, Felisa

1998-01-01

One of the most important concerns of the postindustrial societies lies on the specification and quantification of risk, the Risk Assesment. However, the efforts and resources devoted to such goal have not avoided a growing worry about both the environmental conditions and the situations that potentially threaten it, generating an intense social debate about risks. In this framework, discrepancies between experts and public evaluations risks leaded to the study of social Risk perception. Several theoretical scopes have tried to characterize the phenomenon. A worthy conclusion of the empirical studies carried out on this issue is that all of them, experts and public, are influence by some factors which, in turns, affect their risk perception,. Specially striking is the fact that perception of risk among experts is also modulated by qualitative, personal and social factors. Social Risk Perception, through the process of Communication and Social Participation, has been configurated as a critical tool for both risk prevention and management
Risk Factors For Ectopic Pregnancy : A Case Control Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deshmukh J.S

1999-01-01

Full Text Available Research question: Which are the risk factors for ectopic pregnancy . Objective: To study the strength of association between hypothesised risk factors and ectopic pregnancy. Study design: Unmatched case- control study. Setting: Government Medical College, Hospital, Nagpur. Participants: 133 cases of ectopic pregnancy and equal number of controls (non pregnant women admitted to study hospital. Study variables : Pelvic inflammatory diseases, sexually transmitted diseases, IUD use at conception , past use of IUD, prior ectopic pregnancy, OC pills use at the time of conception, past use of OC pills, induced abortion, spontaneous abortion, infertility and pelvic and abdominal surgery. Statistical analysis: Odds ratios & their 95% CI, Pearsonâ€s chi square test, unconditional logistic regression analysis and population attributable risk proportion. Results : Use of IUD at conception, prior ectopic pregnancy , pelvic inflammatory disease, sexually transmitted diseases, infertility, OC pills use at the time of conception, past use of IUD and induced abortion were found to be significantly associated with ectopic pregnancy. Conclusion: Identification of these risk factors for etopic pregnancy shall help in early detection and appropriate management in an individual case and it may help in devising a comprehensive preventive strategy for ectopic pregnancy
Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners' use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; McKinn, Shannon; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul; McCaffery, Kirsten

2014-05-29

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs' descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: 'positive', 'scare tactic', and 'indirect'. A 'positive' strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A 'scare tactic' strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to 'scare' them into taking action. An 'indirect' strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice.
Predicting Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Population-Based Study

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Mahmut Kilic

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Aim: One of the major risk factors that can cause death in the world is also type-2 diabetes mellitus (DM. Turkey does not have a vehicle in the society has been formulate predicting the risk of developing DM. The purpose of this study is to determine the level of DM risk in Turkish society using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC tool. Material and Method: This is a cross-sectional study. The data has been obtained from %u201Cbehavioral risk factors for chronic diseases study%u201D that was made in the province of Yozgat, in 2011. The study population included 825 subjects between 25 to 79 years old who had measured their blood sugar before, but who were not diagnosed DM. DM risk level was calculated using FINDRISC tool. The scale score is between 0-26, %u226515 points are considered high risk (risk ratio 1/3. In analyzing the data, t-test, ANOVA and chi-square test and binary logistic regression were used. Results: Of the subjects 10 years of DM risk score%u2019s mean was 8.8 ± 4.6. When FINDRISC score low / medium and high divided into 2 groups, the proportion of those in the high risk group is 11.5%. This rate is similar to the 10-year incidence of DM calculated (11-12.4% for Turkey. In this study, all of the factors taken into FINDRISC calculations were statistically significant (p 0.05. Discussion: FINDRISC used to be in the DM risk calculations of Turkish population. One out of every ten adults are at high risk of developing DM in 10 years. To avoid this problem urgently needs to be implemented by the various programs on an individual and societal level.
Assessing the impact of a combined analysis of four common low-risk genetic variants on autism risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carayol Jerome

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Autism is a complex disorder characterized by deficits involving communication, social interaction, and repetitive and restrictive patterns of behavior. Twin studies have shown that autism is strongly heritable, suggesting a strong genetic component. In other disease states with a complex etiology, such as type 2 diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular disease, combined analysis of multiple genetic variants in a genetic score has helped to identify individuals at high risk of disease. Genetic scores are designed to test for association of genetic markers with disease. Method The accumulation of multiple risk alleles markedly increases the risk of being affected, and compared with studying polymorphisms individually, it improves the identification of subgroups of individuals at greater risk. In the present study, we show that this approach can be applied to autism by specifically looking at a high-risk population of children who have siblings with autism. A two-sample study design and the generation of a genetic score using multiple independent genes were used to assess the risk of autism in a high-risk population. Results In both samples, odds ratios (ORs increased significantly as a function of the number of risk alleles, with a genetic score of 8 being associated with an OR of 5.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.45 to 12.49. The sensitivities and specificities for each genetic score were similar in both analyses, and the resultant area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were identical (0.59. Conclusions These results suggest that the accumulation of multiple risk alleles in a genetic score is a useful strategy for assessing the risk of autism in siblings of affected individuals, and may be better than studying single polymorphisms for identifying subgroups of individuals with significantly greater risk.
Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jiuhong; Song, Chunli; Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

2017-01-10

To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture.
Prospective study of blood metabolites associated with colorectal cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Shu, Xiang; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Rothman, Nathaniel; Yu, Danxia; Li, Hong-Lan; Yang, Gong; Cai, Hui; Ma, Xiao; Lan, Qing; Gao, Yu-Tang; Jia, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Zheng, Wei

2018-02-26

Few prospective studies, and none in Asians, have systematically evaluated the relationship between blood metabolites and colorectal cancer risk. We conducted a nested case-control study to search for risk-associated metabolite biomarkers for colorectal cancer in an Asian population using blood samples collected prior to cancer diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression was performed to assess associations of metabolites with cancer risk. In this study, we included 250 incident cases with colorectal cancer and individually matched controls nested within two prospective Shanghai cohorts. We found 35 metabolites associated with risk of colorectal cancer after adjusting for multiple comparisons. Among them, 12 metabolites were glycerophospholipids including nine associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer and three with increased risk [odds ratios per standard deviation increase of transformed metabolites: 0.31-1.98; p values: 0.002-1.25 × 10 -10 ]. The other 23 metabolites associated with colorectal cancer risk included nine lipids other than glycerophospholipid, seven aromatic compounds, five organic acids and four other organic compounds. After mutual adjustment, nine metabolites remained statistically significant for colorectal cancer. Together, these independently associated metabolites can separate cancer cases from controls with an area under the curve of 0.76 for colorectal cancer. We have identified that dysregulation of glycerophospholipids may contribute to risk of colorectal cancer. © 2018 UICC.
Interactive web visualization tools to the results interpretation of a seismic risk study aimed at the emergency levels definition

Science.gov (United States)

Rivas-Medina, A.; Gutierrez, V.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.

2009-04-01

Results of a seismic risk assessment study are often applied and interpreted by users unspecialised on the topic or lacking a scientific background. In this context, the availability of tools that help translating essentially scientific contents to broader audiences (such as decision makers or civil defence officials) as well as representing and managing results in a user-friendly fashion, are on indubitable value. On of such tools is the visualization tool VISOR-RISNA, a web tool developed within the RISNA project (financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre, Spain) for regional seismic risk assessment of Navarre and the subsequent development of emergency plans. The RISNA study included seismic hazard evaluation, geotechnical characterization of soils, incorporation of site effects to expected ground motions, vulnerability distribution assessment and estimation of expected damage distributions for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The main goal of RISNA was the identification of higher risk area where focusing detailed, local-scale risk studies in the future and the corresponding urban emergency plans. A geographic information system was used to combine different information layers, generate tables of results and represent maps with partial and final results. The visualization tool VISOR-RISNA is intended to facilitate the interpretation and representation of the collection of results, with the ultimate purpose of defining actuation plans. A number of criteria for defining actuation priorities are proposed in this work. They are based on combinations of risk parameters resulting from the risk study (such as expected ground motion and damage and exposed population), as determined by risk assessment specialists. Although the values that these parameters take are a result of the risk study, their distribution in several classes depends on the intervals defined by decision takers or civil defense officials. These criteria provide a ranking of
Risk factors associated with lipomyelomeningocele: a case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Esmaeili, Arash; Hanaei, Sara; Fadakar, Kaveh; Dadkhah, Sahar; Arjipour, Mahdi; Habibi, Zohreh; Nejat, Farideh; El Khashab, Mostafa

2013-01-01

In general, it seems that both genetic and environmental factors play important roles in the induction of neural tube defects. Lipomyelomeningocele (LipoMMC) is a rather common type of closed neural tube defect, but only limited studies have investigated the potential risk factors of this anomaly. Therefore, the purpose of this case-control study was to investigate the risk factors involved in LipoMMC formation. Various risk factors were evaluated in 35 children between 1 month and 10 years of age with LipoMMC in a hospital-based case-control study. The 2 control arms consisted of 35 children with myelomeningocele (MMC group) and 35 children with congenital anomalies other than central nervous system problems (control group). All groups were matched for age and visited the same hospital. A structured questionnaire was used for the collection of all data, including the mothers' weight and height during pregnancy, education, reproductive history, previous abortions, and socioeconomic status, as well as the parents' consanguinity and family history of the same anomalies. Univariate analysis of the children with LipoMMC compared to the control group showed that the use of periconceptional folic acid supplementation was significantly lower in the MMC and LipoMMC groups compared to the control group. In addition, comparison of the MMC and control groups revealed statistically significant differences regarding the use of folic acid and maternal obesity. In multivariate analysis, use of folic acid in the periconceptional period and during the first trimester was an independent risk factor for LipoMMC and MMC. Furthermore, maternal obesity was a significantly positive risk factor for MMC. The probable risk factors for LipoMMC were investigated in this case-control study. Consumption of folic acid in the periconceptional period and during the first trimester is an independent protective factor against LipoMMC. It seems that larger studies are needed to examine other possible
Employment relations, flexibility and risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Carsten Strøby

Employment relations literature often distinguishes between social democratic/corporatist models of employment relations and liberal models of employment relations as they are seen as opposite or at least different ways of organizing labor markets. They are often characterized as having very...... different risk profiles in terms of relationships between employees, employers, and the state. Low levels of labor market regulation very often characterize the liberal models of employment relations as we know them from, for instance, the USA and the UK. This means that employment conditions are very often...... insecure and that the burden of unemployment risk mostly lies with the employees rather than the employer. Corporatist – or social democratic – employment relations models are, in contrast to the liberal models, often characterized by stricter regulation of the labor market and by high standards...
Studying risk factors associated with Human Leptospirosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramachandra Kamath

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Leptospirosis is one of the most under diagnosed and underreported disease in both developed and developing countries including India. It is established that environmental conditions and occupational habit of the individuals put them at risk of acquiring disease, which varies from community to community. Various seroprevalence studies across the world have documented emerging situation of this neglected tropical disease, but limited have probed to identify the risk factors, especially in India. Objectives: The objective of this study was to identify the environmental and occupational risk factors associated with the disease in Udupi District. Materials and Methods: This population-based case-control study was carried out in Udupi, a District in Southern India from April 2012 until August 2012. Udupi is considered to be endemic for Leptospirosis and reported 116 confirmed cases in the year 2011. Seventy of 116 laboratory confirmed cases and 140 sex matched neighborhood healthy controls participated in the study. A predesigned, semi-structured and validated questionnaire was used for data collection through house to house visit and observations were noted about environmental conditions. Univariate analysis followed by multivariate analysis (back ward conditional logistic regression was performed by using STATA version 9.2 (StataCorp, College Station, TX, USA to identify potential risk factors. Results: Occupational factors such as outdoor activities (matched odds ratio [OR] of 3.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-13.0, presence of cut or wound at body parts during work (matched OR: 4.88, CI: 1.83-13.02 and environmental factors such as contact with rodents through using the food materials ate by rat (matched OR: 4.29, CI: 1.45-12.73 and contact with soil or water contaminated with urine of rat (matched OR: 4.58, CI: 1.43-14.67 were the risk factors identified to be associated with disease. Conclusion: Leptospirosis is still
Can vascular risk factors influence number and size of cerebral metastases? A 3D-MRI study in patients with different tumor entities.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagel, Sandra; Berk, Benjamin-Andreas; Kortmann, Rolf-Dieter; Hoffmann, Karl-Titus; Seidel, Clemens

2018-02-01

There is increasing evidence that cerebral microangiopathy reduces number of brain metastases. Aim of this study was to analyse if vascular risk factors (arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and hypercholesterolemia) or the presence of peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD) can have an impact on number or size of brain metastases. 200 patients with pre-therapeutic 3D-brain MRI and available clinical data were analyzed retrospectively. Mean number of metastases (NoM) and mean diameter of metastases (mDM) were compared between patients with/without vascular risk factors (vasRF). No general correlation of vascular risk factors with brain metastases was found in this monocentric analysis of a patient cohort with several tumor types. Arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia and smoking did not show an effect in uni- and multivariate analysis. In patients with PAOD the number of BM was lower than without PAOD. This was the case independent from cerebral microangiopathy but did not persist in multivariate analysis. From this first screening approach vascular risk factors do not appear to strongly influence brain metastasation. However, larger prospective multi-centric studies with better characterized severity of vascular risk are needed to more accurately detect effects of individual factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Canadian HIV and aging cohort study - determinants of increased risk of cardio-vascular diseases in HIV-infected individuals: rationale and study protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Durand, Madeleine; Chartrand-Lefebvre, Carl; Baril, Jean-Guy; Trottier, Sylvie; Trottier, Benoit; Harris, Marianne; Walmsley, Sharon; Conway, Brian; Wong, Alexander; Routy, Jean-Pierre; Kovacs, Colin; MacPherson, Paul A; Monteith, Kenneth Marc; Mansour, Samer; Thanassoulis, George; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Zhu, Zhitong; Tsoukas, Christos; Ancuta, Petronela; Bernard, Nicole; Tremblay, Cécile L

2017-09-11

With potent antiretroviral drugs, HIV infection is becoming a chronic disease. Emergence of comorbidities, particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD) has become a leading concern for patients living with the infection. We hypothesized that the chronic and persistent inflammation and immune activation associated with HIV disease leads to accelerated aging, characterized by CVD. This will translate into higher incidence rates of CVD in HIV infected participants, when compared to HIV negative participants, after adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors. When characterized further using cardiovascular imaging, biomarkers, immunological and genetic profiles, CVD associated with HIV will show different characteristics compared to CVD in HIV-negative individuals. The Canadian HIV and Aging cohort is a prospective, controlled cohort study funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. It will recruit patients living with HIV who are aged 40 years or older or have lived with HIV for 15 years or more. A control population, frequency matched for age, sex, and smoking status, will be recruited from the general population. Patients will attend study visits at baseline, year 1, 2, 5 and 8. At each study visit, data on complete medical and pharmaceutical history will be captured, along with anthropometric measures, a complete physical examination, routine blood tests and electrocardiogram. Consenting participants will also contribute blood samples to a research biobank. The primary outcome is incidence of a composite of: myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, stroke, hospitalization for angina or congestive heart failure, revascularization or amputation for peripheral artery disease, or cardiovascular death. Preplanned secondary outcomes are all-cause mortality, incidence of the metabolic syndrome, incidence of type 2 diabetes, incidence of renal failure, incidence of abnormal bone mineral density and body fat distribution. Patients participating to the
PO-58 - Cardiovascular risk profile in survivors of adult cancer - results from the general population study.

Science.gov (United States)

Panova-Noeva, M; Hermanns, I M; Schulz, A; Laubert-Reh, D; Zeller, T; Blankenberg, S; Spronk, H M; Münzel, T; Lackner, K J; Ten Cate, H; Wild, P S

2016-04-01

The advancements in cancer treatment and detection of early cancer have resulted in steady increase of adult cancer survivors over the years. However, due to the long term toxic effects of chemotherapy and radiotherapy, the incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is increasing in survivors. Identifying risk factors and interventions to reduce the excess burden of CVD in this vulnerable population is urgently needed. To investigate the cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), inflammation and coagulation profile in cancer survivors from a large population-based study. Presence of CVRFs and laboratory markers have been compared in individuals with (n=1,359) and without (n=13,626) history of cancer. Standard laboratory profile, including blood glucose and lipid profile, has been evaluated in 15,010 individuals from the Gutenberg Health Study (GHS). Coagulation factors, D-dimer and von Willebrand factor (vWF) activity were available in N=4,993. The individuals with history of cancer were older compared to no history of cancer with mean age of 61,5years and 54.4years, respectively (pprofile showed cancer survivors with lower erythrocyte, platelet and white blood cell counts and higher C-reactive protein (CRP), glucose, HbA1c and triglycerides levels (pprofile in individuals with history of cancer from a well characterized population-representative adult sample. It gives evidence for higher prevalence of CVRFs, particularly diabetes in this vulnerable population. Markers of inflammation as CRP and fibrinogen and vWF activity were higher in cancer survivors independent of the cardiovascular risk profile. These results underline the increased risk of CVD and need for development of cardio-oncology programs offering cardiovascular prevention. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

Science.gov (United States)

Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

2010-05-01

Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and
Goal-oriented Site Characterization in Hydrogeological Applications: An Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Nowak, W.; de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.

2011-12-01

In this study, we address the importance of goal-oriented site characterization. Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in hydrogeological applications, information needs of modeling, prediction and decision support should be satisfied with efficient and rational field campaigns. In this work, we provide an overview of an optimal sampling design framework based on Bayesian decision theory, statistical parameter inference and Bayesian model averaging. It optimizes the field sampling campaign around decisions on environmental performance metrics (e.g., risk, arrival times, etc.) while accounting for parametric and model uncertainty in the geostatistical characterization, in forcing terms, and measurement error. The appealing aspects of the framework lie on its goal-oriented character and that it is directly linked to the confidence in a specified decision. We illustrate how these concepts could be applied in a human health risk problem where uncertainty from both hydrogeological and health parameters are accounted.
A comparative study of the perceptions of nuclear and environmental risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boemer, Veronica Araujo

2011-01-01

With the necessity for new forms of energy production to contain the environmental crisis and the global warming, new technologies have been studied and the nuclear energy has been placed as one of the ways out for clean energy production. The study of the risk is directly related to the study of its perception, that determines the human being's actions, therefore it influences in new technologies applications, since the awareness of something as dangerous is determined by socio-historical factors. The purpose of this study was compare the perceptions of nuclear and environmental risks, considering a group of university students, with the application of research in the period from March 31 to May 31, 2010, containing: images of historical facts to be nominated; structuring of a risk scale for certain activities, and a questionnaire about risks and benefits related to the subject research. The analysis of results evidenced a reduction in the perception of nuclear risk over the perception of environmental risk in this population. (author)

The structure of risk perception. A comparative study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martinez-Arias, R. [Universidad Complutense, Madrid (Spain); Prades, A. [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain); Arranz, L. [Hospital Ramon y Cajal, Madrid (Spain); Macias, M.T. [CSIC, Madrid (Spain)

2000-05-01

Research by cognitive and social psychologists has demonstrated that when lay persons make estimates of risks they do not merely calculate in terms of probabilistic information. People tend to construe the risk in accordance with other schemata. The Psychometric Paradigm (Slovic et. al., 1980), found out two main dimensions in the perception of risk: the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness factors. This paper presents some of the key findings of a comparative Latin-American study on radiological risk perception in the health area. The main objective is to check whether or not the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness dimensions explain the perception of risk in this specific context. A questionnaire was distributed to outpatient samples from ten countries: Argentine, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, and Spain, thanks to the collaboration of the different National Radioprotection Societies of the above mentioned countries, and of other concerned professionals (in case they didn't have any association at the time). A list of 22 risks, including both radiological and non-radiological ones, were evaluated on two rating scales: possibility and seriousness. Factor analysis, both exploratory and confirmatory, as well as Multidimensional Scaling will be used for the data analysis. The paper will discuss the main cross-cultural differences with regard to the structure of risk perception. The peculiarities of the health related risks will be emphasised. (author)
The structure of risk perception. A comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez-Arias, R.; Prades, A.; Arranz, L.; Macias, M.T.

2000-01-01

Research by cognitive and social psychologists has demonstrated that when lay persons make estimates of risks they do not merely calculate in terms of probabilistic information. People tend to construe the risk in accordance with other schemata. The Psychometric Paradigm (Slovic et. al., 1980), found out two main dimensions in the perception of risk: the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness factors. This paper presents some of the key findings of a comparative Latin-American study on radiological risk perception in the health area. The main objective is to check whether or not the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness dimensions explain the perception of risk in this specific context. A questionnaire was distributed to outpatient samples from ten countries: Argentine, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, and Spain, thanks to the collaboration of the different National Radioprotection Societies of the above mentioned countries, and of other concerned professionals (in case they didn't have any association at the time). A list of 22 risks, including both radiological and non-radiological ones, were evaluated on two rating scales: possibility and seriousness. Factor analysis, both exploratory and confirmatory, as well as Multidimensional Scaling will be used for the data analysis. The paper will discuss the main cross-cultural differences with regard to the structure of risk perception. The peculiarities of the health related risks will be emphasised. (author)
Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Carlton, Stuart J; Jacobson, Susan K

2013-11-30

Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Characterizing cardiovascular risk in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: more than the sum of its parts?

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Alice Y; Wild, Robert A

2009-07-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), a condition of irregular menses and androgen excess, is the most common endocrinopathy of young women. Insulin resistance is a well-established feature among many women with PCOS, even in the nonobese. Therefore, it is not surprising that PCOS is frequently associated with cardiovascular risk factors and the metabolic syndrome. However, it is not known whether PCOS is an independent risk factor for atherosclerosis and cardiovascular (CV) events or whether CV risk is attributable to associated risk factors. We review previous studies on CV risk and disease in women with PCOS, describing the pitfalls and challenges in ascribing CV risk to PCOS. Women with PCOS might be partly reassured that their relative risk approximates that of the metabolic syndrome (RR 1.5) and also strongly counseled at the individual level about the greatest potential threat to their CV health, the development of type 2 diabetes.
Reactor risk reference document: Appendices A-I, Draft for comment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-02-01

This document discusses the risks of severe accidents in a set of commercial nuclear power plants. This risk is characterized by the types and frequencies of accidents leading to severe core damage, the performance of containment structures under severe accident loadings, possible radioactive releases into the environment if the containment were to fail, and the offsite consequences of such releases. A discussion of the methods used to calculate risk is provided and the principal results of the analyses of the studied plants is summarized
Risk Communication as a Tool for Training Apprentice Welders: A Study about Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents

Science.gov (United States)

Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Bonow, Clarice Alves; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; de Almeida, Marlise Capa Verde; Severo, Luana de Oliveira; Borges, Anelise Miritz; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Turik, Claudia

2012-01-01

The present study has aimed to identify the perceptions of apprentice welders about physical, chemical, biological, and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed; identify types of occupational accidents involving apprentice welders; and report the development of a socioenvironmental education intervention as a tool for risk communication for apprentice welders. A quantitative study was performed with 161 apprentice welders in Southern Brazil in 2011. Data collection was performed via structured interviews with the apprentice welders about risk perception, occupational accidents, and time experienced in welding. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: physical (96.9%), chemical (95%), physiological (86.3%), and biological (51.5%). In this sample, 39.7% of apprentice welders reported occupational accidents and 27.3% reported burning. The inferential analysis showed that the frequency of risk perception factors increases with the length of experience, and apprentice welders who have experienced accidents during welding activity perceive a higher amount of risk factors than those who have never experienced them. It is concluded that apprentice welders perceive risks and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their activity. PMID:23326211
Variations of emission characterization of PAHs emitted from different utility boilers of coal-fired power plants and risk assessment related to atmospheric PAHs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Ruwei; Liu, Guijian; Zhang, Jiamei

2015-01-01

Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) represent important source of atmospheric PAHs, however, their emission characterization are still largely unknown. In this work, the concentration, distribution and gas-particle partitioning of PM_1_0- and gas-phase PAHs in flue gas emitted from different coal-fired utility boilers were investigated. Moreover, concentration and distribution in airborne PAHs from different functional areas of power plants were studied. People's inhalatory and dermal exposures to airborne PAHs at these sites were estimated and their resultant lung cancer and skin cancer risks were assessed. Results indicated that the boiler capacity and operation conditions have significant effect on PAH concentrations in both PM_1_0 and gas phases due to the variation of combustion efficiency, whereas they take neglected effect on PAH distributions. The wet flue gas desulphurization (WFGD) takes significant effect on the scavenging of PAH in both PM_1_0 and gas phases, higher scavenging efficiency were found for less volatile PAHs. PAH partitioning is dominated by absorption into organic matter and accompanied by adsorption onto PM_1_0 surface. In addition, different partitioning mechanism is observed for individual PAHs, which is assumed arising from their chemical affinity and vapor pressure. Risk assessment indicates that both inhalation and dermal contact greatly contribute to the cancer risk for CFPP workers and nearby residents. People working in workshop are exposed to greater inhalation and dermal exposure risk than people living in nearby vicinity and working office. - Highlights: • PAH distribution in PM_1_0 and gas phases primarily depend on the vapor pressure. • Combustion conditions and WFGD show typical effects on PAH level and profile. • PAH partitioning is dominated by absorption and also accompanied by adsorption. • Individual PAHs show different partitioning mechanisms in PM_1_0- and gas-phases. • People in workshop suffer greater cancer
German study on the risks of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wollny, V.

1987-01-01

The 'Deutsche Risikostudie Kernkraftwerke', DRS, (German study on the risks of nuclear plants) calculates a frequency of 1/10000 years (i.e. once in 10000 years of reactor operation) for the event of insufficient cooling of the reactor core occurring. The resulting collective risk is put at approximately 10 deaths per year for 25 plants. As the explanations show, the error margin of such a risk statement is enormous. Moreover, much seems to indicate that the risk was underrated. Apart from this, risk analyses are of doubtful value in the decision process for or against the introduction of large-scale technologies. They cannot replace the individual decision of all concerned. (orig./HSCH) [de
Gendered risk perceptions associated with human-wildlife conflict: implications for participatory conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Gore, Meredith L; Kahler, Jessica S

2012-01-01

This research aims to foster discourse about the extent to which gender is important to consider within the context of participatory approaches for biological conservation. Our objectives are to: (1) gender-disaggregate data about stakeholders' risk perceptions associated with human-wildlife conflict (HWC) in a participatory conservation context, and (2) highlight insights from characterizing gendered similarities and differences in the way people think about HWC-related risks. Two communal conservancies in Caprivi, Namibia served as case study sites. We analyzed data from focus groups (n = 2) to create gendered concept maps about risks to wildlife and livelihoods and any associations of those risks with HWC, and semi-structured interviews (n = 76; men = 38, women = 38) to measure explicit risk attitudes associated with HWC. Concept maps indicated some divergent perceptions in how groups characterized risks to wildlife and livelihoods; however, not only were identified risks to wildlife (e.g., pollution, hunting) dissimilar in some instances, descriptions of risks varied as well. Study groups reported similar risk perceptions associated with HWC with the exception of worry associated with HWC effects on local livelihoods. Gendered differences in risk perceptions may signal different priorities or incentives to participate in efforts to resolve HWC-related risks. Thus, although shared goals and interests may seem to be an obvious reason for cooperative wildlife management, it is not always obvious that management goals are shared. Opportunity exists to move beyond thinking about gender as an explanatory variable for understanding how different groups think about participating in conservation activities.
Gendered risk perceptions associated with human-wildlife conflict: implications for participatory conservation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meredith L Gore

Full Text Available This research aims to foster discourse about the extent to which gender is important to consider within the context of participatory approaches for biological conservation. Our objectives are to: (1 gender-disaggregate data about stakeholders' risk perceptions associated with human-wildlife conflict (HWC in a participatory conservation context, and (2 highlight insights from characterizing gendered similarities and differences in the way people think about HWC-related risks. Two communal conservancies in Caprivi, Namibia served as case study sites. We analyzed data from focus groups (n = 2 to create gendered concept maps about risks to wildlife and livelihoods and any associations of those risks with HWC, and semi-structured interviews (n = 76; men = 38, women = 38 to measure explicit risk attitudes associated with HWC. Concept maps indicated some divergent perceptions in how groups characterized risks to wildlife and livelihoods; however, not only were identified risks to wildlife (e.g., pollution, hunting dissimilar in some instances, descriptions of risks varied as well. Study groups reported similar risk perceptions associated with HWC with the exception of worry associated with HWC effects on local livelihoods. Gendered differences in risk perceptions may signal different priorities or incentives to participate in efforts to resolve HWC-related risks. Thus, although shared goals and interests may seem to be an obvious reason for cooperative wildlife management, it is not always obvious that management goals are shared. Opportunity exists to move beyond thinking about gender as an explanatory variable for understanding how different groups think about participating in conservation activities.
Job strain as a risk factor for clinical depression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, I. E. H.; Nyberg, S. T.; Magnusson Hanson, L. L.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Adverse psychosocial working environments characterized by job strain (the combination of high demands and low control at work) are associated with an increased risk of depressive symptoms among employees, but evidence on clinically diagnosed depression is scarce. We examined job strain...... as a risk factor for clinical depression. METHOD: We identified published cohort studies from a systematic literature search in PubMed and PsycNET and obtained 14 cohort studies with unpublished individual-level data from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD...... unpublished datasets we included 120 221 individuals and 982 first episodes of hospital-treated clinical depression. Job strain was associated with an increased risk of clinical depression in both published [relative risk (RR) = 1.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.47-2.13] and unpublished datasets (RR = 1...
Infective Endocarditis and Cancer Risk: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Li-Min; Wu, Jung-Nan; Lin, Cheng-Li; Day, Jen-Der; Liang, Ji-An; Liou, Li-Ren; Kao, Chia-Hung

2016-03-01

This study investigated the possible relationship between endocarditis and overall and individual cancer risk among study participants in Taiwan.We used data from the National Health Insurance program of Taiwan to conduct a population-based, observational, and retrospective cohort study. The case group consisted of 14,534 patients who were diagnosed with endocarditis between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010. For the control group, 4 patients without endocarditis were frequency matched to each endocarditis patient according to age, sex, and index year. Competing risks regression analysis was conducted to determine the effect of endocarditis on cancer risk.A large difference was noted in Charlson comorbidity index between endocarditis and nonendocarditis patients. In patients with endocarditis, the risk for developing overall cancer was significant and 119% higher than in patients without endocarditis (adjusted subhazard ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval = 1.98-2.42). Regarding individual cancers, in addition to head and neck, uterus, female breast and hematological malignancies, the risks of developing colorectal cancer, and some digestive tract cancers were significantly higher. Additional analyses determined that the association of cancer with endocarditis is stronger within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis.This population-based cohort study found that patients with endocarditis are at a higher risk for colorectal cancer and other cancers in Taiwan. The risk was even higher within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. It suggested that endocarditis is an early marker of colorectal cancer and other cancers. The underlying mechanisms must still be explored and may account for a shared risk factor of infection in both endocarditis and malignancy.
Dietary Patterns Exhibit Sex-Specific Associations with Adiposity and Metabolic Risk in a Cross-Sectional Study in Urban Mexican Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Perng, Wei; Fernandez, Carmen; Peterson, Karen E; Zhang, ZhenZhen; Cantoral, Alejandra; Sanchez, Brisa N; Solano-González, Maritsa; Téllez-Rojo, Martha Maria; Baylin, Ana

2017-10-01

Background: Studies in Western nations have shown associations of certain dietary patterns with obesity and metabolic risk in youth. Little is known about these relations in newly industrialized countries where obesity prevalence is surpassing those of developed countries. Objective: We sought to characterize dietary patterns in a cross-sectional study in 224 adolescents aged 8-14 y in Mexico and to investigate associations of the dietary patterns with adiposity and metabolic risk. Methods: We used principal components analysis to derive dietary patterns from food-frequency questionnaire data. By using linear regression models that accounted for mother's marital status, education, and smoking habits and child's age and physical activity, we examined associations of the dietary patterns with adiposity [body mass index z score, waist circumference, the sum and ratio of the subscapular and triceps skinfold thicknesses, blood pressure, serum fasting glucose and a C-peptide-based measure of insulin resistance (CP-IR), lipid profile, and a metabolic syndrome risk z score (MetS z score)]. Results: We identified a "prudent" dietary pattern characterized by high intakes of vegetables, fruit, fish, chicken, and legumes and a "transitioning" dietary pattern, which comprises processed meats, Mexican foods, and sweetened beverages. Each unit increase in the prudent pattern factor score corresponded with 0.33 ng/mL (95% CI: 0.09, 0.57 ng/mL) lower C-peptide, 0.08 units (95% CI: 0.02, 0.13 units) lower CP-IR, and a 0.14 unit (0.00, 0.27 unit) lower MetS z score in boys. In girls, the transitioning pattern corresponded with higher subscapular + triceps skinfold thickness (per 1-unit increase in the factor score: 2.46 mm; 95% CI: 0.10, 4.81 mm). These results did not change after accounting for pubertal status. Conclusions: A prudent dietary pattern was protective against metabolic risk in adolescent boys, whereas a transitioning dietary pattern corresponded with higher adiposity
APROBA-Plus: A probabilistic tool to evaluate and express uncertainty in hazard characterization and exposure assessment of substances.

Science.gov (United States)

Bokkers, Bas G H; Mengelers, Marcel J; Bakker, Martine I; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Slob, Wout

2017-12-01

To facilitate the application of probabilistic risk assessment, the WHO released the APROBA tool. This tool applies lognormal uncertainty distributions to the different aspects of the hazard characterization, resulting in a probabilistic health-based guidance value. The current paper describes an extension, APROBA-Plus, which combines the output from the probabilistic hazard characterization with the probabilistic exposure to rapidly characterize risk and its uncertainty. The uncertainty in exposure is graphically compared with the uncertainty in the target human dose, i.e. the dose that complies with the specified protection goals. APROBA-Plus is applied to several case studies, resulting in distinct outcomes and illustrating that APROBA-Plus could serve as a standard extension of routine risk assessments. By visualizing the uncertainties, APROBA-Plus provides a more transparent and informative outcome than the more usual deterministic approaches, so that risk managers can make better informed decisions. For example, APROBA-Plus can help in deciding whether risk-reducing measures are warranted or that a refined risk assessment would first be needed. If the latter, the tool can be used to prioritize possible refinements. APROBA-Plus may also be used to rank substances into different risk categories, based on potential health risks without being compromised by different levels of conservatism that may be associated with point estimates of risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Study reputational risk in an audit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. N. Volkova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The introduction of international sanctions and the formation of intense competition among companies in the Russian market and the related need to assess their risk of reputation that directly affect the value of the goodwill of the company is very important. The article presents the main reputational risks Russian enterprises, which need to be analyzed in the course of the audit. The definition of "reputational risk", which is a challenge due to the problems associated with certain norms of economic security. Currently in economics there are no deep research on managing reputational risks of commercial structures. Is a list of the main risks for Russian companies, such as fraud, financial problems, bankruptcy, information leaks, lawsuits, violating the legislation and labor disputes, allegations of money laundering, tax evasion. It is concluded that the occurrence of at least one of reputational risks will inevitably lead to the gradual emergence of the rest. As well as a diagram the relationship reputational risks. Under the present scheme, identified reputational risks that arise in the financial problems of the enterprise. It was determined that the most significant reputational risks are tax evasion, violation of the law and labor disputes, allegations of money laundering and lawsuits. These risks are managed should have a strategic character. The strategic nature of the management can be achieved through the implementation of effective marketing communication policy. The risk management policy should be made a compulsory item - audit of the calculation and analysis of reputational risk. Compiled scheme of action needed to reputational risk.
Drugs of abuse, cytostatic drugs and iodinated contrast media in tap water from the Madrid region (central Spain):A case study to analyse their occurrence and human health risk characterization.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, A; Zonja, B; Mastroianni, N; Negreira, N; López de Alda, M; Pérez, S; Barceló, D; Gil, A; Valcárcel, Y

2016-01-01

This work analyses the presence of forty-eight emerging pollutants, including twenty-five drugs of abuse and metabolites, seventeen cytostatic drugs and six iodinated contrast media, in tap water from the Madrid Region. Analysis of the target compounds in the tap water was performed by means of (on-line or off-line) solid-phase extraction followed by analysis by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. A preliminary human health risk characterization was undertaken for each individual compound and for different groups of compounds with a common mechanism of action found in tap water. The results of the study showed the presence of eight out of the twenty-five drugs of abuse and metabolites analysed, namely, the cocainics cocaine and benzoylecgonine, the amphetamine-type stimulants ephedrine, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine and methamphetamine, the opioid methadone and its metabolite 2-ethylene-1,5-dimethyl-3,3-diphenylpyrrolidine and, finally caffeine at concentrations ranging from 0.11 to 502 ng L(-1). Four out of the six analysed iodinated contrast media, namely, diatrizoate, iohexol, iomeprol and iopromide, were detected in at least one sample, with concentration values varying between 0.4 and 5 ng L(-1). Cytostatic compounds were not detected in any sample. Caffeine was the substance showing the highest concentrations, up to 502 ng L(-1), mainly in the drinking water sampling point located in Madrid city. Among the other drugs of abuse, the most abundant compounds were cocaine and benzoylecgonine, detected at concentrations ranging from 0.11 to 86 ng L(-1) and from 0.11 to 53 ng L(-1), respectively. Regarding iodinated contrast media, iohexol was the most ubiquitous and abundant compound, with a frequency of detection of 100% and concentrations from 0.5 to 5.0 ng L(-1) in basically the same range in all sampling points. Taking into account the results and types of treatment applied, ozonisation plus granular activated carbon filtration appears to be
Guidance Manual for Conducting Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessments at the INEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; R. C. Morris

1995-06-01

This document presents reference material for conducting screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERAs)for the waste area groups (WAGs) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included in this document are discussions of the objectives of and processes for conducting SLERAs. The Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework is closely followed. Guidance for site characterization, stressor characterization, ecological effects, pathways of contaminant migration, the conceptual site model, assessment endpoints, measurement endpoints, analysis guidance, and risk characterization are included.
Bayesian Hierarchical Structure for Quantifying Population Variability to Inform Probabilistic Health Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Kan; Allen, Bruce C; Wheeler, Matthew W

2017-10-01

Human variability is a very important factor considered in human health risk assessment for protecting sensitive populations from chemical exposure. Traditionally, to account for this variability, an interhuman uncertainty factor is applied to lower the exposure limit. However, using a fixed uncertainty factor rather than probabilistically accounting for human variability can hardly support probabilistic risk assessment advocated by a number of researchers; new methods are needed to probabilistically quantify human population variability. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify variability among different populations. This approach jointly characterizes the distribution of risk at background exposure and the sensitivity of response to exposure, which are commonly represented by model parameters. We demonstrate, through both an application to real data and a simulation study, that using the proposed hierarchical structure adequately characterizes variability across different populations. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
Municipal Solid Waste Characterization according to Different Income Levels: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huseyin Kurtulus Ozcan

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Solid waste generation and characterization are some of the most important parameters which affect environmental sustainability. Municipal solid waste (MSW characterization depends on social structure and income levels. This study aims to determine the variations in waste components within MSW mass by income levels and seasonal conditions following the analysis conducted on the characterization of solid wastes produced in the Kartal district of the province of Istanbul, which is the research area of this study. To this end, 1.9 tons of solid waste samples were collected to represent four different lifestyles (high, medium, and low income levels, and downtown in the winter and summer periods, and characterization was made on these samples. In order to support waste characterization, humidity content and calorific value analyses were also conducted and various suggestions were brought towards waste management in line with the obtained findings. According to the results obtained in the study, organic waste had the highest rate of waste mass by 57.69%. Additionally, significant differences were found in municipal solid waste components (MSWC based on income level. Average moisture content (MC of solid waste samples was 71.1% in moisture analyses. The average of calorific (heating value (HHV was calculated as 2518.5 kcal·kg−1.
A social work study high-risk behavior among teenagers

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Mohammad Reza Iravani

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Teenagers are believed the people who are supposed to build the world's future. High-risk behaviors such as addiction to drugs, smoking cigarettes, sex, etc. could significantly hurts teenagers and there must be some supporting programs to reduce these issues as much as possible. This paper performs an empirical investigation to study the different factors influencing high- risk behavior among teenagers who live in a city of Esfahan, Iran. The proposed study designs a questionnaire and distribute between two groups of female and male teenagers. The results indicate that while there is a meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and average high school marks among male students there is no meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and high school grades among female students. The results also indicate that there is a meaningful difference between gender and high-risk behavior. The season of birth for female and male students is another important factor for having high-risk behaviors. While the order of birth plays an important role among male students, the order of birth is not an important factor among female teenagers. Finally, the results indicate that teenagers' parental financial affordability plays a vital role on both female and male teenagers.

Mendelian Randomization Study of Body Mass Index and Colorectal Cancer Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thrift, Aaron P.; Gong, Jian; Peters, Ulrike

2015-01-01

Background: High body mass index (BMI) is consistently linked to increased risk of colorectal cancer for men, whereas the association is less clear for women. As risk estimates from observational studies may be biased and/or confounded, we conducted a Mendelian randomization study to estimate...... the causal association between BMI and colorectal cancer. Methods: We used data from 10,226 colorectal cancer cases and 10,286 controls of European ancestry. The Mendelian randomization analysis used a weighted genetic risk score, derived from 77 genome-wide association study–identified variants associated......, rather than overall obesity, is a more important risk factor for men requires further investigation. Impact: Overall, conventional epidemiologic and Mendelian randomization studies suggest a strong association between obesity and the risk of colorectal cancer....
A study on the risk perception of light pollution and the process of social amplification of risk in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kyung Hee; Choi, Jae Wook; Lee, Eunil; Cho, Yong Min; Ahn, Hyung Rae

2015-05-01

In this study, the risk perception level of each light pollution type was analyzed, and the effects of the variables (e.g., psychometric paradigm factor, trust in the government, etc.) on the process of the increase in the risk perception were analyzed. For the sample population (1096 persons) in Korea, the risk perception levels of each light pollution type and other environmental and health risk factors were compared, and the relative magnitude was examined. In addition, to test which variables affect the group with high-risk perception of each light pollution type, a logistic regression analysis was performed. For the group with highest risk perception of light pollution, the odds ratios (OR) of all psychometric paradigms (excluding controllability) increased compared to those of the group with low-risk perception. Additionally, the level showing the acquisition of information from the media and the recollection level of media criticism on each light pollution type showed a statistically significant increase. Especially, the risk perception of light trespass increased as trust in the government decreased. The significance of this study includes the finding that the public's risk perception of light pollution was significantly affected by the psychometric paradigm factors. Moreover, this study analyzed the differences of the variables that affect the increase in the risk perception of each light pollution type and provided a theoretical framework that can practically reflect the strategy for the risk communication of light pollution.
The @RISK Study: Risk communication for patients with type 2 diabetes: design of a randomised controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Welschen, Laura M C; Bot, Sandra D M; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Timmermans, Daniëlle R M; van der Weijden, Trudy; Nijpels, Giel

2010-08-05

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have an increased risk to develop severe diabetes related complications, especially cardiovascular disease (CVD). The risk to develop CVD can be estimated by means of risk formulas. However, patients have difficulties to understand the outcomes of these formulas. As a result, they may not recognize the importance of changing lifestyle and taking medication in time. Therefore, it is important to develop risk communication methods, that will improve the patients' understanding of risks associated with having diabetes, which enables them to make informed choices about their diabetes care.The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of an intervention focussed on the communication of the absolute 10-year risk to develop CVD on risk perception, attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour in patients with T2DM. The conceptual framework of the intervention is based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Self-regulation Theory. A randomised controlled trial will be performed in the Diabetes Care System West-Friesland (DCS), a managed care system. Newly referred T2DM patients of the DCS, younger than 75 years will be eligible for the study. The intervention group will be exposed to risk communication on CVD, on top of standard managed care of the DCS. This intervention consists of a simple explanation on the causes and consequences of CVD, and possibilities for prevention. The probabilities of CVD in 10 year will be explained in natural frequencies and visualised by a population diagram. The control group will receive standard managed care. The primary outcome is appropriateness of risk perception. Secondary outcomes are attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour and illness perception. Differences between baseline and follow-up (2 and 12 weeks) between groups will be analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle. The study was powered on 120 patients in each group. This innovative risk
Volcanic risk; Risque volcanique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rancon, J.P.; Baubron, J.C.

1995-12-31

This project follows the previous multi-disciplinary studies carried out by the French Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM) on the two active volcanoes of the French lesser Antilles: Mt Pelee (Martinique) and Soufriere (Guadeloupe) for which geological maps and volcanic risk studies have been achieved. The research program comprises 5 parts: the study of pyroclastic deposits from recent eruptions of the two volcanoes for a better characterization of their eruptive phenomenology and a better definition of crisis scenarios; the study of deposits and structures of active volcanoes from Central America and the study of eruptive dynamics of andesite volcanoes for a transposition to Antilles` volcanoes; the starting of a methodological multi-disciplinary research (volcanology, geography, sociology...) on the volcanic risk analysis and on the management of a future crisis; and finally, the development of geochemical survey techniques (radon, CO{sub 2}, H{sub 2}O) on active volcanoes of Costa-Rica and Europe (Fournaise, Furnas, Etna) and their application to the Soufriere. (J.S.). 9 refs., 3 figs.
Characterization of mercury and its risk in Nelson's, Saltmarsh, and Seaside Sparrows.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Virginia L Winder

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Nelson's, Saltmarsh, and Seaside Sparrows (Ammodramus nelsoni, A. caudacutus, and A. maritimus, respectively depend on marsh and wetland habitats--ecosystems in which mercury (Hg bioavailability is notoriously high. The purpose of the present study was to address the potential impact of Hg on these species using first primary and breast feathers as non-destructive biomonitoring tools. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Feathers were sampled from wintering sparrows in North Carolina salt marshes (2006-2010. Feather Hg data were used in three risk analysis components (1 Threshold Component--examined feather Hg with regard to published negative effects thresholds; (2 Hg Dynamics Component--examined Hg in sparrows captured multiple times; and (3 Capture Frequency and Survival Component--tested for links between Hg and return frequency and survival. Threshold Component analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in 42-77% of sampled individuals (breast feather n = 879; first primary feather n = 663 were within the range associated with decreased reproduction in other avian species. Hg Dynamics Component analyses demonstrated that Hg increased between first and second captures for Nelson's (n = 9 and Seaside Sparrows (n = 23. Capture Frequency and Survival Component analyses detected a negative relationship between Hg and capture frequency in Nelson's Sparrows (n = 315. However, MARK models detected no effect of Hg on apparent survival in any species. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE: This study indicates that current Hg exposure places a considerable proportion of each population at risk. In particular, 52% of all sampled Saltmarsh Sparrows exhibited first primary feather Hg concentrations exceeding those associated with a >60% reduction in reproductive success in other species. This study reports evidence for net annual bioaccumulation, indicating an increased risk in older individuals. These data can be used to inform future population
Characterization of mercury and its risk in Nelson's, Saltmarsh, and Seaside Sparrows.

Science.gov (United States)

Winder, Virginia L

2012-01-01

Nelson's, Saltmarsh, and Seaside Sparrows (Ammodramus nelsoni, A. caudacutus, and A. maritimus, respectively) depend on marsh and wetland habitats--ecosystems in which mercury (Hg) bioavailability is notoriously high. The purpose of the present study was to address the potential impact of Hg on these species using first primary and breast feathers as non-destructive biomonitoring tools. Feathers were sampled from wintering sparrows in North Carolina salt marshes (2006-2010). Feather Hg data were used in three risk analysis components (1) Threshold Component--examined feather Hg with regard to published negative effects thresholds; (2) Hg Dynamics Component--examined Hg in sparrows captured multiple times; and (3) Capture Frequency and Survival Component--tested for links between Hg and return frequency and survival. Threshold Component analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in 42-77% of sampled individuals (breast feather n = 879; first primary feather n = 663) were within the range associated with decreased reproduction in other avian species. Hg Dynamics Component analyses demonstrated that Hg increased between first and second captures for Nelson's (n = 9) and Seaside Sparrows (n = 23). Capture Frequency and Survival Component analyses detected a negative relationship between Hg and capture frequency in Nelson's Sparrows (n = 315). However, MARK models detected no effect of Hg on apparent survival in any species. This study indicates that current Hg exposure places a considerable proportion of each population at risk. In particular, 52% of all sampled Saltmarsh Sparrows exhibited first primary feather Hg concentrations exceeding those associated with a >60% reduction in reproductive success in other species. This study reports evidence for net annual bioaccumulation, indicating an increased risk in older individuals. These data can be used to inform future population assessments and management for these species.
Chemical and radiation environmental risk management at the crossroads: Case studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tran, N.; Burke, T.; Locke, P.

1999-01-01

Although many of the major environmental risk management decisions we face today require the simultaneous evaluation and control of both radiological and chemical risks, the separation of radiation and chemical risk management persists along legal, regulatory, programmatic, training and professional practice levels. In June 1998, a panel of 40 chemical and radiation risk experts met at an interactive workshop entitled 'Addressing the Similarities and Differences in Chemical and Radiation Environmental Risk Management,' in Annapolis, Maryland to discuss several perspectives on harmonizing chemical and radiation risk management approaches. At the conclusion of the meeting, workshop participants recommended that case studies of clean-up sites at which radioactive materials and hazardous chemical risks were addressed, be developed to help educate participants in the harmonization dialogue about their counterpart's issues, stimulate discussion and sharpen issues in a way that they can be resolved. Several key risk management issues that were highlighted from the discussion at the Annapolis meeting are being evaluated in the case studies. They include: decision criteria, costs and public/stakeholder input. This paper presents these key issues and the approach taken in the case studies. (author)
Quantifying pathogen risks associated with potable reuse: A risk assessment case study for Cryptosporidium.

Science.gov (United States)

Amoueyan, Erfaneh; Ahmad, Sajjad; Eisenberg, Joseph N S; Pecson, Brian; Gerrity, Daniel

2017-08-01

This study evaluated the reliability and equivalency of three different potable reuse paradigms: (1) surface water augmentation via de facto reuse with conventional wastewater treatment; (2) surface water augmentation via planned indirect potable reuse (IPR) with ultrafiltration, pre-ozone, biological activated carbon (BAC), and post-ozone; and (3) direct potable reuse (DPR) with ultrafiltration, ozone, BAC, and UV disinfection. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was performed to (1) quantify the risk of infection from Cryptosporidium oocysts; (2) compare the risks associated with different potable reuse systems under optimal and sub-optimal conditions; and (3) identify critical model/operational parameters based on sensitivity analyses. The annual risks of infection associated with the de facto and planned IPR systems were generally consistent with those of conventional drinking water systems [mean of (9.4 ± 0.3) × 10 -5 to (4.5 ± 0.1) × 10 -4 ], while DPR was clearly superior [mean of (6.1 ± 67) × 10 -9 during sub-optimal operation]. Because the advanced treatment train in the planned IPR system was highly effective in reducing Cryptosporidium concentrations, the associated risks were generally dominated by the pathogen loading already present in the surface water. As a result, risks generally decreased with higher recycled water contributions (RWCs). Advanced treatment failures were generally inconsequential either due to the robustness of the advanced treatment train (i.e., DPR) or resiliency provided by the environmental buffer (i.e., planned IPR). Storage time in the environmental buffer was important for the de facto reuse system, and the model indicated a critical storage time of approximately 105 days. Storage times shorter than the critical value resulted in significant increases in risk. The conclusions from this study can be used to inform regulatory decision making and aid in the development of design or operational
Expert risk perceptions and the social amplification of risk: A case study in invasive tree pests and diseases

OpenAIRE

Urquhart, Julie; Potter, Clive; Barnett, Julie; Fellenor, John; Mumford, John; Quine, Christopher P.

2017-01-01

The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk\\ud perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that\\ud it is possible to define a benchmark ‘real’ risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk\\ud perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly\\ud problematic when there are high leve...
Factors Associated With Engagement With a Web-Based Lifestyle Intervention Following Provision of Coronary Heart Disease Risk: Mixed Methods Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Winther, Laura R; Shefer, Guy S; Silarova, Barbora; Payne, Rupert A; Griffin, Simon J

2017-10-16

Web-based interventions provide the opportunity to combine the tailored approach of face-to-face interventions with the scalability and cost-effectiveness of public health interventions. This potential is often limited by low engagement. A number of studies have described the characteristics of individuals who engage more in Web-based interventions but few have explored the reasons for these variations. We aimed to explore individual-level factors associated with different degrees of engagement with a Web-based behavior change intervention following provision of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk information, and the barriers and facilitators to engagement. This study involved the secondary analysis of data from the Information and Risk Modification Trial, a randomized controlled trial of a Web-based lifestyle intervention alone, or alongside information on estimated CHD risk. The intervention consisted of three interactive sessions, each lasting up to 60 minutes, delivered at monthly intervals. Participants were characterized as high engagers if they completed all three sessions. Thematic analysis of qualitative data from interviews with 37 participants was combined with quantitative data on usage of the Web-based intervention using a mixed-methods matrix, and data on the views of the intervention itself were analyzed across all participants. Thirteen participants were characterized as low engagers and 24 as high engagers. There was no difference in age (P=.75), gender (P=.95), or level of risk (P=.65) between the groups. Low engagement was more often associated with: (1) reporting a negative emotional reaction in response to the risk score (P=.029), (2) perceiving that the intervention did not provide any new lifestyle information (P=.011), and (3) being less likely to have reported feeling an obligation to complete the intervention as part of the study (P=.019). The mixed-methods matrix suggested that there was also an association between low engagement and less
Genetic risk score predicting risk of rheumatoid arthritis phenotypes and age of symptom onset.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lori B Chibnik

Full Text Available Cumulative genetic profiles can help identify individuals at high-risk for developing RA. We examined the impact of 39 validated genetic risk alleles on the risk of RA phenotypes characterized by serologic and erosive status.We evaluated single nucleotide polymorphisms at 31 validated RA risk loci and 8 Human Leukocyte Antigen alleles among 542 Caucasian RA cases and 551 Caucasian controls from Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II. We created a weighted genetic risk score (GRS and evaluated it as 7 ordinal groups using logistic regression (adjusting for age and smoking to assess the relationship between GRS group and odds of developing seronegative (RF- and CCP-, seropositive (RF+ or CCP+, erosive, and seropositive, erosive RA phenotypes. In separate case only analyses, we assessed the relationships between GRS and age of symptom onset. In 542 RA cases, 317 (58% were seropositive, 163 (30% had erosions and 105 (19% were seropositive with erosions. Comparing the highest GRS risk group to the median group, we found an OR of 1.2 (95% CI = 0.8-2.1 for seronegative RA, 3.0 (95% CI = 1.9-4.7 for seropositive RA, 3.2 (95% CI = 1.8-5.6 for erosive RA, and 7.6 (95% CI = 3.6-16.3 for seropositive, erosive RA. No significant relationship was seen between GRS and age of onset.Results suggest that seronegative and seropositive/erosive RA have different genetic architecture and support the importance of considering RA phenotypes in RA genetic studies.
Systematic review of perceptive studies on nuclear risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freitas, Mariana Gama de

2014-01-01

This present work contains the study of risk perception in different areas of interaction. For it was made an analysis using methodology previously recognized and tested: a systematic review in the search for better understanding of the perception of risk in the nuclear area. Through this study it was possible to understand the potential of the systematic review as a tool for information that encompass the perception of risk as a whole. Making it possible to trace parameters to find out why the world's people have an aversion to certain matters relating to nuclear energy. Considering that if you can understand what drives the people has disgust on nuclear area, it is probably possible to create alternatives to remedy this lack of information and knowledge about the area. Causing the population to realize the benefits that nuclear power brings to people. (author)
Screening situations for risk of ethical conflicts: a pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Pavlish, Carol L; Hellyer, Joan Henriksen; Brown-Saltzman, Katherine; Miers, Anne G; Squire, Karina

2015-05-01

Ethical conflicts, often leading to poor teamwork and moral distress, are very challenging to patients, patients' families, and health care providers. A proactive approach to ethical conflicts may improve patient care outcomes. To examine acceptability and feasibility of an ethics screening and early intervention tool for use by nurses caring for critically ill patients. Twenty-eight nurses in 2 medical centers applied the ethics screening tool to 55 patient situations. Nurses assessed situations for risk factors and early indicators of ethical conflicts and analyzed level of risk. At study completion, nurses participated in focus group discussions about the tool's benefits and challenges. Frequency counts were performed on risk factors and early indicators of ethical conflicts. Content analysis was used on written explanations regarding high-, medium-, and low-risk situations and on focus group data. Older patients with multiple comorbid conditions and aggressive treatments were frequently assessed to be at risk for ethical conflicts. Nurses who witnessed patients' suffering and deterioration were likely to initiate the screening process. The most prominent family risk factors included unrealistic expectations and adamancy about treatment. The most prominent early indicators were signs of patients' suffering, unrealistic expectations, and providers' own moral distress. High-risk situations averaged a greater number of risk factors and early indicators than did medium- and low-risk situations. Certain risk factors featured prominently in high-risk situations. A phenomenon of shared suffering emerged from the study and signifies the importance of relational strategies such as routine family conferences and ethics consultation. ©2015 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.
Uncertainty in ecological risk assessment: A statistician's view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, E.P.

1995-01-01

Uncertainty is a topic that has different meanings to researchers, modelers, managers and policy makers. The perspective of this presentation will be on the modeling view of uncertainty and its quantitative assessment. The goal is to provide some insight into how a statistician visualizes and addresses the issue of uncertainty in ecological risk assessment problems. In ecological risk assessment, uncertainty arises from many sources and is of different type depending on what is studies, where it is studied and how it is studied. Some major sources and their impact are described. A variety of quantitative approaches to modeling uncertainty are characterized and a general taxonomy given. Examples of risk assessments of lake acidification, power plant impact assessment and the setting of standards for chemicals will be used discuss approaches to quantitative assessment of uncertainty and some of the potential difficulties
Mechanical characterization of atherosclerotic arteries using finite-element modeling: feasibility study on mock arteries.

Science.gov (United States)

Pazos, Valérie; Mongrain, Rosaire; Tardif, Jean-Claude

2010-06-01

Clinical studies on lipid-lowering therapy have shown that changing the composition of lipid pools reduced significantly the risk of cardiac events associated with plaque rupture. It has been shown also that changing the composition of the lipid pool affects its mechanical properties. However, knowledge about the mechanical properties of human atherosclerotic lesions remains limited due to the difficulty of the experiments. This paper aims to assess the feasibility of characterizing a lipid pool embedded in the wall of a pressurized vessel using finite-element simulations and an optimization algorithm. Finite-element simulations of inflation experiments were used together with nonlinear least squares algorithm to estimate the material model parameters of the wall and of the inclusion. An optimal fit of the simulated experiment and the real experiment was sought with the parameter estimation algorithm. The method was first tested on a single-layer polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) cryogel stenotic vessel, and then, applied on a double-layered PVA cryogel stenotic vessel with a lipid inclusion.
Familial risks of glomerulonephritis - a nationwide family study in Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Akrawi, Delshad Saleh; Li, Xinjun; Sundquist, Jan; Fjellstedt, Erik; Sundquist, Kristina; Zöller, Bengt

2016-08-01

Familial risks of glomerulonephritis (acute, chronic and unspecified glomerulonephritis) have not been studied. This study aims to determine the familial risks of glomerulonephritis. Individuals born from1932 onwards diagnosed with glomerulonephritis (acute [n = 7011], chronic [n = 10,242] and unspecified glomerulonephritis [n = 5762]) were included. The familial risk (Standardized incidence ratio = SIR) was calculated for individuals whose parents/full-siblings were diagnosed with glomerulonephritis compared to those whose parents/full-siblings were not. The procedure was repeated for spouses. Familial concordant risk (same disease in proband and exposed relative) and discordant risk (different disease in proband and exposed relative) of glomerulonephritis were determined. Familial concordant risks (parents/full-sibling history) were: SIR = 3.57 (95% confidence interval, 2.77-4.53) for acute glomerulonephritis, SIR = 3.84 (3.37-4.36) for chronic glomerulonephritis and SIR = 3.75 (2.85-4.83) for unspecified glomerulonephritis. High familial risks were observed if two or more relatives were affected; the SIR was 209.83 (150.51-284.87) in individuals with at least one affected parent as well as one full-sibling. The spouse risk was only moderately increased (SIR = 1.53, 1.33-1.75). Family history of glomerulonephritis is a strong predictor for glomerulonephritis, and is a potentially useful tool in clinical risk assessment. Our data emphasize the contribution of familial factors to the glomerulonephritis burden in the community. Key Messages The familial risks (full-sibling/parent history) of glomerulonephritis (acute, chronic and unspecified glomerulonephritis) have not been determined previously. The familial risks of glomerulonephritis were increased among individuals with family history of acute, chronic or unspecified glomerulonephritis. The familial risks of glomerulonephritis were slightly increased among spouses indicating a
Vascular risk factors, vascular disease, lipids and lipid targets in patients with familial dysbetalipoproteinemia : A European cross-sectional study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koopal, C.; Retterstol, K.; Sjouke, B.; Hovingh, G. K.; Ros, E.; de Graaf, J.; Dullaart, R. P. F.; Bertolini, S.; Visseren, F. L. J.

Background: Familial dysbetalipoproteinemia (FD), also known as type III hyperlipoproteinemia, is a genetic dyslipidemia characterized by elevated very low density lipoprotein (VLDL) and chylomicron remnant particles that confers increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The objective of this
Use of genomic data in risk assessment case study: I. Evaluation of the dibutyl phthalate male reproductive development toxicity data set

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makris, Susan L., E-mail: makris.susan@epa.gov [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, (Mail code 8623P), 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Euling, Susan Y. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, (Mail code 8623P), 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Gray, L. Earl [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, (MD-72), Highway 54, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Benson, Robert [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, (Mail code 8P-W), 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); Foster, Paul M.D. [National Toxicology Program, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, P.O. Box 12233 (MD K2-12), Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States)

2013-09-15

A case study was conducted, using dibutyl phthalate (DBP), to explore an approach to using toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. The toxicity and toxicogenomic data sets relative to DBP-related male reproductive developmental outcomes were considered conjointly to derive information about mode and mechanism of action. In this manuscript, we describe the case study evaluation of the toxicological database for DBP, focusing on identifying the full spectrum of male reproductive developmental effects. The data were assessed to 1) evaluate low dose and low incidence findings and 2) identify male reproductive toxicity endpoints without well-established modes of action (MOAs). These efforts led to the characterization of data gaps and research needs for the toxicity and toxicogenomic studies in a risk assessment context. Further, the identification of endpoints with unexplained MOAs in the toxicity data set was useful in the subsequent evaluation of the mechanistic information that the toxicogenomic data set evaluation could provide. The extensive analysis of the toxicology data set within the MOA context provided a resource of information for DBP in attempts to hypothesize MOAs (for endpoints without a well-established MOA) and to phenotypically anchor toxicogenomic and other mechanistic data both to toxicity endpoints and to available toxicogenomic data. This case study serves as an example of the steps that can be taken to develop a toxicological data source for a risk assessment, both in general and especially for risk assessments that include toxicogenomic data.
Childhood Psychosocial Cumulative Risks and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

Science.gov (United States)

Hakulinen, Christian; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Kubzansky, Laura D.; Jokela, Markus; Hintsanen, Mirka; Juonala, Markus; Kivimäki, Mika; Josefsson, Kim; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli T

2015-01-01

Objective Adverse experiences in childhood may influence cardiovascular risk in adulthood. We examined the prospective associations between types of psychosocial adversity as well as having multiple adversities (e.g., cumulative risk) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and its progression among young adults. Higher cumulative risk score in childhood was expected to be associated with higher IMT and its progression. Methods Participants were 2265 men and women (age range: 24-39 years in 2001) from the on-going Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study whose carotid IMT were measured in 2001 and 2007. A cumulative psychosocial risk score, assessed at the study baseline in 1980, was derived from four separate aspects of the childhood environment that may impose risk (childhood stressful life-events, parental health behavior family, socioeconomic status, and childhood emotional environment). Results The cumulative risk score was associated with higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.001; padulthood, including adulthood health behavior, adulthood socioeconomic status and depressive symptoms. Among the individual childhood psychosocial risk categories, having more stressful life-events was associated with higher IMT in 2001 (b=.007; se=.003; p=.016) and poorer parental health behavior predicted higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.002; p=.031) after adjustment for age, sex and childhood cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Early life psychosocial environment influences cardiovascular risk later in life and considering cumulative childhood risk factors may be more informative than individual factors in predicting progression of preclinical atherosclerosis in adulthood. PMID:26809108
Risk Characterization for Future Training Scenarios at the Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR), Final Results

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Zakikhani, Mansour; Dortch, Mark S; Gerald, Jeffrey A; Hawkins, Melanie S

2005-01-01

This study was conducted to evaluate potential human and ecological health risks associated with emission of pyrotechnic compounds during future training exercises at the Massachusetts Military Reservation...

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.
Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation
Work plan for waste receiving and processing module 2A waste characterization study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergeson, C.L.

1994-11-01

This WRAP 2A Waste Characterization Study effort addresses those certification strategy functions related to characterization by defining criteria associated with each function, identifying administrative and design mechanisms for accomplishing each of these functions and evaluating alternatives where applicable. This work plan provides direction for completing the study
[Mother-newborn relational risk - Study of prevalence and associated variables].

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, Maribel; Poo, Ana María; Baeza, Bernardita; Bustos, M Luis

2015-01-01

Clinical evidence reveals the importance of mother-newborn bonding experience for health promoting and maintenance of human life. If the newborn lacks care and affection, she/he may develop an attachment disorder. A predictive scale regarding the risk of mothernewborn relationships is available, which makes possible an early intervention to prevent the development of relational disorders. The aim of this study is to apply the Kimelman measurement scale to determine the relational risk in mother-newborn pairs, as well as the prevalence and the associated biopsychosocial variables. A cross-sectional study with a probabilistic sample of 333 mother-infant pairs in postpartum maternity at Temuco hospital. The Kimelman mother-newborn attachment assessment guide was used. Biopsychosocial variables were obtained from the mothers studied. The association of biopsychosocial variables with relational risk was analyzed using OR and confidence intervals of 95%. The prevalence of high relational risk was 43.8%. The associated biopsychosocial variables included, women with no steady partner, single parent, teenage mothers, unwanted and unplanned pregnancy. Almost half of the mothers were in the high risk group. Early identification of relational risk and its related variables could help in the intervention in this vulnerable group. Copyright © 2015. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.
A Clinical Risk Score for Atrial Fibrillation in a Biracial Prospective Cohort (From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study)

OpenAIRE

Chamberlain, Alanna M.; Agarwal, Sunil K.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Chambless, Lloyd E.; Crow, Richard; Ambrose, Marietta; Alonso, Alvaro

2011-01-01

A risk score for AF has been developed by the Framingham Heart Study; however the applicability of this risk score, derived from whites, to predict new-onset AF in non-whites is uncertain. Therefore, we developed a 10-year risk score for new-onset AF using risk factors commonly measured in clinical practice using 14,546 individuals from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective community-based cohort of blacks and whites in the United States. During 10 years of follow-up, 5...
Study of Systemic Risk Involved in Mutual Funds

Science.gov (United States)

Dash, Kishore C.; Dash, Monika

Systemic risk, may be defined as the risk that contaminates to the whole system, consisting of many interacting agents that fail one after another. These agents, in an economic context, could be firms, banks, funds, or other financial institutions. Systemic risk is a macroscopic property of a system which emerges due to the nonlinear interaction of agents on a microscopic level. A stock market itself is a system in which there are many sub-systems, like Dowjones, Nifty, Sensex, Nasdaq, Nikkei and other market indices in global perspective. In Indian market, subsystems may be like Sensex, Nifty, BSE200, Bankex, smallcap index, midcap index, S&P CNX 500 and many others. Similarly there are many mutual funds, which have their own portfolio of different stocks, bonds etc. We have attempted to study the systemic risk involved in a fund as a macroscopic object with regard to its microscopic components as different stocks in its portfolio. It is observed that fund managers do manage to reduce the systemic risk just like we take precautions to control the spread of an epidemic.
Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.
From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

Science.gov (United States)

Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

2015-12-01

Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical
Shifted risk preferences in pathological gambling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ligneul, R.; Sescousse, G.T.; Barbalat, G.; Domenech, P.; Dreher, J.C.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Pathological gambling (PG) is an impulse control disorder characterized by excessive monetary risk seeking in the face of negative consequences. We used tools from the field of behavioral economics to refine our description of risk-taking behavior in pathological gamblers. This
Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro Balbás

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.
Characterization strategy report for the organic safety issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goheen, S.C.; Campbell, J.A.; Fryxell, G.E.

1997-08-01

This report describes a logical approach to resolving potential safety issues resulting from the presence of organic components in hanford tank wastes. The approach uses a structured logic diagram (SLD) to provide a pathway for quantifying organic safety issue risk. The scope of the report is limited to selected organics (i.e., solvents and complexants) that were added to the tanks and their degradation products. The greatest concern is the potential exothermic reactions that can occur between these components and oxidants, such as sodium nitrate, that are present in the waste tanks. The organic safety issue is described in a conceptual model that depicts key modes of failure-event reaction processes in tank systems and phase domains (domains are regions of the tank that have similar contents) that are depicted with the SLD. Applying this approach to quantify risk requires knowing the composition and distribution of the organic and inorganic components to determine (1) how much energy the waste would release in the various domains, (2) the toxicity of the region associated with a disruptive event, and (3) the probability of an initiating reaction. Five different characterization options are described, each providing a different level of quality in calculating the risks involved with organic safety issues. Recommendations include processing existing data through the SLD to estimate risk, developing models needed to link more complex characterization information for the purpose of estimating risk, and examining correlations between the characterization approaches for optimizing information quality while minimizing cost in estimating risk
Exploring inductive risk case studies of values in science

CERN Document Server

Richards, Ted

2017-01-01

Science is the most reliable means available for understanding the world around us and our place in it. But, since science draws conclusions based on limited empirical evidence, there is always a chance that a scientific inference will be incorrect. That chance, known as inductive risk, is endemic to science. Though inductive risk has always been present in scientific practice, the role of values in responding to it has only recently gained extensive attention from philosophers, scientists, and policy-makers. Exploring Inductive Risk brings together a set of eleven concrete case studies with the goals of illustrating the pervasiveness of inductive risk, assisting scientists and policymakers in responding to it, and moving theoretical discussions of this phenomenon forward. The case studies range over a wide variety of scientific contexts, including the drug approval process, high energy particle physics, dual-use research, climate science, research on gender disparities in employment, clinical trials, and to...
The Alaska Education and Research Towards Health (EARTH) Study: cancer risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lanier, Anne P; Redwood, Diana G; Kelly, Janet J

2012-04-01

The Alaska Education and Research Towards Health (EARTH) Study assessed cancer risk among 3,821 Alaska Native people (AN). We present the prevalence of selected cancer risk factors and comparison with Healthy People 2010 goals. Participants completed extensive computer-assisted self-administered questionnaires on diet, physical activity, tobacco and alcohol use, cancer screening, family history of cancer, and environmental exposures. Measurement data were collected on blood pressure, height, weight, waist/hip circumference, fasting serum lipids, and glucose. Cancer risk factors are high for the Alaska EARTH study population. For all risk factors studied except for vegetable consumption, Alaska EARTH Study participants did not meet Healthy People 2010 goals. This study is unique in providing questionnaire and measurement data of cancer risk factors on a larger study sample than any previous study among AN living in Alaska. Data show that the prevalence of most cancer risk factors exceeded national recommendations. Given the disease disparities that exist for the AN population, these data provide important baseline data that can be used to target health interventions and reduce health disparities.
Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, A. Paige; Spies, Thomas A; Steelman, Toddi A; Moseley, Cassandra; Johnson, Bart R.; Bailey, John D.; Ager, Alan A; Bourgeron, Patrick S.; Charnley, Susan; Collins, Brandon M.; Kline, Jeffrey D; Leahy, Jessica E; Littell, Jeremy; Millington, James D. A.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max; Olsen, Christine S; Paveglio, Travis B; Roos, Christopher I.; Steen-Adams, Michelle M; Stevens, Forrest R; Vukomanovic, Jelena; White, Eric M; Bowman, David M J S

2016-01-01

Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS.
Quadrant III RFI draft report: Appendix J, Baseline risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-12-01

In accordance with the Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (U. S.EPA 1989), which states that background risk should be calculated separately from site-related risk in order to provide important information to the risk manager, this appendix assesses the human health risks associated with background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soil at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS). This appendix is organized as follows: Background Conditions, in which the results of Geraghty ampersand Miller's work on characterizing background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soils is summarized; Identification of Exposure Pathways; Estimation of Environmental Concentrations; Estimation of Human Intake; Toxicity Assessment, and Risk Characterization, in which numerical estimates of carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risk are calculated for each naturally occurring compound and potential exposure pathway
Illness and risk behaviour in health care students studying abroad.

Science.gov (United States)

Angelin, Martin; Evengård, Birgitta; Palmgren, Helena

2015-07-01

The numbers of university students studying abroad increase every year. These students are not tourists as their studies require different types of travel that expose them to different risks. Moreover, health care students (HCSs) may be exposed to even greater risks according to their travel destinations and itineraries. Clearly, research-based pre-travel advice is needed. This study reports on a prospective survey conducted from April 2010 to January 2014 of health care and non-health care students from Swedish universities in Umeå, Stockholm and Gothenburg studying abroad. Of the 393 students included in the study, 85% responded. Over half (55%) were HCSs. Pre-travel health information was received by 79% and information on personal safety by 49% of HCSs. The rate of illness during travel was 52%. Health care students more often travelled to developing regions and were at increased risk for travellers' diarrhoea. One in 10 experienced theft and 3% were involved in traffic accidents. One in five met a new sexual partner during travel and 65% of these practised safe sex. Half of all participants increased their alcohol consumption while abroad; high alcohol consumption was associated with increased risk for being a victim of theft, as well as for meeting a new sexual partner during travel. University authorities are responsible for the safety and well-being of students studying abroad. This study supplies organisers and students with epidemiological data that will help improve pre-travel preparation and increase student awareness of the potential risks associated with studying abroad. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Risk assessment in infrastructure in educational institution: A study in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Rasdan Ismail, Ahmad; Adilah Hamzah, Noor; Kamilah Makhtar, Nor; Azhar Mat Daud, Khairul; Zulkarnaen Khidzir, Nik; Husna Che Hassan, Nurul; Arifpin Mansor, Muhamad

2017-10-01

This particular study was conducted to assess the hazard exposure in education institution and to highlight the possible risk level available. The assessment utilised is Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC). There was a 2008’s form in order to determine the risk level of the hazard. There were over 111 of education institutions were selected around Malaysia to perform this assessment. Area chosen for each institution was office, playing field, canteen, classroom, toilet and drainage. By referring HIRARC Guideline 2008, the determination of risk rank is measure based on the formula likelihood multiply severity and the rank need to refer from risk matrix standard. There are several hazard have be found and shows the high, medium and low of risk level. The higher level of risk was discussed in the study which is hazard found in playing field and hazard in office. There several hazard that need to be control by education management to avoid increase of case accident in Education Sector, Malaysia. As conclusion, the exposure hazard among the staff and educators is high and further action and control are needed. Further study need to explore the best recommendation for control measure of the hazard exposed by education institution.
A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2001-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)
Developing smartphone apps for behavioural studies: The AlcoRisk app case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Anthony; de Salas, Kristy; Lewis, Ian; Schüz, Benjamin

2017-08-01

Smartphone apps have emerged as valuable research tools to sample human behaviours at their time of occurrence within natural environments. Human behaviour sampling methods, such as Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA), aim to facilitate research that is situated in ecologically valid real world environments rather than laboratory environments. Researchers have trialled a range of EMA smartphone apps to sample human behaviours such as dieting, physical activity and smoking. Software development processes for EMA smartphones apps, however, are not widely documented with little guidance provided for the integration of complex multidisciplinary behavioural and technical fields. In this paper, the AlcoRisk app for studying alcohol consumption and risk taking tendencies is presented alongside a software development process that integrates these multidisciplinary fields. The software development process consists of three stages including requirements analysis, feature and interface design followed by app implementation. Results from a preliminary feasibility study support the efficacy of the AlcoRisk app's software development process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Implementation of Risk Management in Malaysian Construction Industry: Case Studies

OpenAIRE

Abdul-Rahman, Hamzah; Wang, Chen; Sheik Mohamad, Farhanim

2015-01-01

Construction industries are exposed to wide array of risks, such as financial, design, and contractual ones, which might have a direct impact on their performance toward achieving the desired objectives. Risk Management is a proactive decision-making process used to minimize and manage the risks in the most efficient and appropriate manner. However, most construction firms in Malaysia do not apply formal risk management in their projects. Thus, this study aims to identify the actual process o...

An empirical study for ranking risk factors using linear assignment: A case study of road construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amin Foroughi

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Road construction projects are considered as the most important governmental issues since there are normally heavy investments required in such projects. There is also shortage of financial resources in governmental budget, which makes the asset allocation more challenging. One primary step in reducing the cost is to determine different risks associated with execution of such project activities. In this study, we present some important risk factors associated with road construction in two levels for a real-world case study of rail-road industry located between two cities of Esfahan and Deligan. The first group of risk factors includes the probability and the effects for various attributes including cost, time, quality and performance. The second group of risk factors includes socio-economical factors as well as political and managerial aspects. The study finds 21 main risk factors as well as 193 sub risk factors. The factors are ranked using groups decision-making method called linear assignment. The preliminary results indicate that the road construction projects could finish faster with better outcome should we carefully consider risk factors and attempt to reduce their impacts.
Characterizing Tumor Heterogeneity With Functional Imaging and Quantifying High-Risk Tumor Volume for Early Prediction of Treatment Outcome: Cervical Cancer as a Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mayr, Nina A., E-mail: Nina.Mayr@osumc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Huang Zhibin [Department of Radiation Oncology and Department of Physics, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC (United States); Wang, Jian Z. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Lo, Simon S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH (United States); Fan, Joline M. [Department of Molecular Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Grecula, John C. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Sammet, Steffen [Department of Radiology, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States); Department of Radiology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Sammet, Christina L. [Department of Radiology, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States); Jia Guang; Zhang Jun; Knopp, Michael V.; Yuh, William T.C. [Department of Radiology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States)

2012-07-01

Purpose: Treatment response in cancer has been monitored by measuring anatomic tumor volume (ATV) at various times without considering the inherent functional tumor heterogeneity known to critically influence ultimate treatment outcome: primary tumor control and survival. This study applied dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) functional MRI to characterize tumors' heterogeneous subregions with low DCE values, at risk for treatment failure, and to quantify the functional risk volume (FRV) for personalized early prediction of treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: DCE-MRI was performed in 102 stage IB{sub 2}-IVA cervical cancer patients to assess tumor perfusion heterogeneity before and during radiation/chemotherapy. FRV represents the total volume of tumor voxels with critically low DCE signal intensity (<2.1 compared with precontrast image, determined by previous receiver operator characteristic analysis). FRVs were correlated with treatment outcome (follow-up: 0.2-9.4, mean 6.8 years) and compared with ATVs (Mann-Whitney, Kaplan-Meier, and multivariate analyses). Results: Before and during therapy at 2-2.5 and 4-5 weeks of RT, FRVs >20, >13, and >5 cm{sup 3}, respectively, significantly predicted unfavorable 6-year primary tumor control (p = 0.003, 7.3 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -8}, 2.0 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -8}) and disease-specific survival (p = 1.9 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -4}, 2.1 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -6}, 2.5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7}, respectively). The FRVs were superior to the ATVs as early predictors of outcome, and the differentiating power of FRVs increased during treatment. Discussion: Our preliminary results suggest that functional tumor heterogeneity can be characterized by DCE-MRI to quantify FRV for predicting ultimate long-term treatment outcome. FRV is a novel functional imaging heterogeneity parameter, superior to ATV, and can be clinically translated for personalized early outcome prediction before or as early as 2
Risk informed decision making - a pre-study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simola, K.; Pulkkinen, U.

2004-04-01

Examples of risk-informed decisions are establishing maintenance programmes, optimising inspection policies and justifying plant modifications, and revising technical specifications. Applications in daily situations can be such as accepting or rejecting exemptions from technical specifications. The aim of this pre-study was to identify the status of risk-informed decision making at Swedish and Finnish nuclear power plants and nuclear safety authorities. Responses to a questionnaire were obtained either by interviews or by e-mail from two Swedish and two Finnish NPPs, SKI and STUK. The development of a risk-informed decision procedure based on decision analytic ideas is worth recommending. A clear documentation format is a part of such procedure. In order to serve as a basis for final decision, the documentation should include clearly defined decision criteria, qualification of PSA model for the issue under analysis, description of most important uncertainties and assumptions. (au)
Magnetic, geochemical characterization and health risk assessment of road dust in Xuanwei and Fuyuan, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Zhengying; Lu, Senlin; Zhao, Hui; Kai, Xiao; Jiaxian, Peng; Win, Myat Sandar; Yu, Shang; Yonemochi, Shinich; Wang, Qingyue

2018-01-19

As an accumulation of solid organic and inorganic pollutant particles on outdoor ground surfaces, road dust is an important carrier of heavy metal contaminants and can be a valuable medium for characterizing urban environmental quality. Because the dusts can be an important source of atmospheric particles and take impact on human health, the aim of this study described in detail the mineralogical characteristics, morphology, and heavy metal content of road dust from Xuanwei and Fuyuan, locations with high lung cancer incidence. Our results show that the average concentrations of heavy metals in road dust were higher than their background values. Higher concentrations of heavy metals were found in the magnetic fractions (MFs) than in the non-magnetic fractions (NMFs). Magnetic measurements revealed high magnetic susceptibility values in the road dust samples, and the dominant magnetic carrier was magnetite. The magnetic grains were predominantly pseudo-single domain, multi-domain, and coarse-grained stable single domains (coarse SSD) in size. SEM/XRD analysis identified two groups of magnetic particles: spherules and angular/aggregate particles. Hazard index (HI) values for adults exposure to road dust samples, including MF, Bulk, and NMF, in both areas were lower or close to safe levels, while HI values for childhood exposure to magnetic fractions in both areas were very close or higher than safe levels. Cancer risks from road dust exposure in both areas were in the acceptable value range.
Motives for Risk-Taking in Adolescence: A Cross-Cultural Study

Science.gov (United States)

Kloep, M.; Guney, N.; Cok, F.; Simsek, O. F.

2009-01-01

Most research on adolescent risk-taking has been conducted in Western societies, but it is as yet unknown whether motives to engage in risk behaviours show cultural variety. This study sets out to investigate differences in perceived motives to engage in perceived risks in Turkish and Welsh samples of young people (N = 922) between 14 and 20 years…
Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

2016-12-01

Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a
Acceptable risk in reactor safety studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benjamin, J.R.; Shinozuka, M.; Shah, H.C.

1975-01-01

Acceptable risk is defined in terms of its five basic parameters: the hazard or problem; the probability of occurrence; the consequence; the possible alternative actions; and the value system of the community or the society. The problem of consistency in design at a site and between differing sites is discussed and solutions are suggested. Techniques for consistent deterministic and probabilistic setting limits and design standards are illustrated using data from AEC Reactor Safety Study, WASH-1400. The influence of level of consequence is discussed and a general methodology for decision analysis in resource allocation problem is briefly introduced and illustrated. The concept of acceptable risk is put in a quantitative format that can be used by engineers and planners. Bayesian statistical methods are introduced to develop the methodologies
A prospective study of occupational physical activity and breast cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ekenga, Christine C; Parks, Christine G; Sandler, Dale P

2015-12-01

Physical activity has been associated with reduced breast cancer risk, but studies of occupational activity have produced inconsistent results. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between occupational physical activity and breast cancer in a prospective study of women with a family history of breast cancer. We studied breast cancer risk in 47,649 Sister Study participants with an occupational history. Information on occupational activity and breast cancer risk factors was collected during baseline interviews (2004-2009). Physical activity at each job was self-reported and categorized as mostly sitting, sitting and standing equally, mostly standing, and active. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate associations between lifetime occupational activity and incident breast cancer, after adjusting for established risk factors and recreational activity. During follow-up, a total of 1,798 breast cancer diagnoses were reported. Compared with women who did not spend any time in active jobs, women who spent a high proportion (≥75%) of their working years in active jobs had a reduced risk of breast cancer (HR 0.72; 95% CI 0.52-0.98). Associations were strongest among overweight (HR 0.64; 95% CI 0.42-0.98) and postmenopausal (HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.45-0.98) women. Occupational activity was associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer. Occupational activity is a domain of physical activity that should be further examined in studies of postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Additional research is necessary to better understand the mechanisms underlying the relationships between occupational activity, body size, and breast cancer.
Antenna coupling study for ICWC plasma characterization in TEXTOR

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2015-11-27

Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 80; Issue 1. Antenna coupling study for ICWC plasma characterization in ... Proceedings of the International Workshop/Conference on Computational Condensed Matter Physics and Materials Science (IWCCMP-2015). Posted on November 27, 2015. Guest Editors: ...
Strategic characterization of anti-drug antibody responses for the assessment of clinical relevance and impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Tatarewicz, Suzanna M; Mytych, Daniel T; Manning, Marta Starcevic; Swanson, Steven J; Moxness, Michael S; Chirmule, Narendra

2014-06-01

All therapeutic proteins have the potential to induce anti-drug antibodies (ADA). Clinically relevant ADA can impact efficacy and/or safety of a biological therapeutic. Immunogenicity assessment strategy evaluates binding and neutralizing ADA, and the need for additional characterization (e.g., epitope, titer and so on) is determined using a risk-based approach. The choice of characterization assays depends on the type, application and immunogenicity of the therapeutic. ADA characterization can impact the interpretation of the risk profile of a given therapeutic, and offers insight into opportunities for risk mitigation and management. This article describes common ADA characterization methods. Strategic assessment and characterization of clinically relevant ADA are discussed, in order to support clinical options for safe and effective patient care and disease management.
Night Shift Work and Risk of Depression: Meta-analysis of Observational Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Aeyoung; Myung, Seung Kwon; Cho, Jung Jin; Jung, Yu Jin; Yoon, Jong Lull; Kim, Mee Young

2017-07-01

This study aimed to assess whether night shift work is associated with the risk of depression by using a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in August, 2016 to locate eligible studies and investigated the association between night shift work and the risk of depression, reporting outcome measures with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the meta-analysis of a total of 11 observational studies with 9 cross-sectional study, 1 longitudinal study, and 1 cohort study, night shift work was significantly associated with an increased risk of depression (OR/RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.24-1.64; I² = 78.0%). Also, subgroup meta-analyses by gender, night shift work duration, type of occupation, continent, and type of publication showed that night shift work was consistently associated with the increased risk of depression. The current meta-analysis suggests that night shift work is associated with the increased risk of depression. However, further large prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm this association. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.
Fuzzy logic model to quantify risk perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bukh, Julia; Dickstein, Phineas

2008-01-01

The aim of this study is a quantification of public risk perception towards the nuclear field so as to be considered in decision making whenever the public involvement is sought. The proposed model includes both qualitative factors such as familiarity and voluntariness and numerical factors influencing risk perception, such as probability of occurrence and severity of consequence. Since part of these factors can be characterized only by qualitative expressions and the determination of them are linked with vagueness, imprecision and uncertainty, the most suitable method for the risk level assessment is Fuzzy Logic, which models qualitative aspects of knowledge and reasoning processes without employing precise quantitative analyses. This work, then, offers a Fuzzy-Logic based mean of representing the risk perception by a single numerical feature, which can be weighted and accounted for in decision making procedures. (author)
Obesity, physical activity and cancer risks: Results from the Cancer, Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study (CLEAR).

Science.gov (United States)

Nunez, Carlos; Bauman, Adrian; Egger, Sam; Sitas, Freddy; Nair-Shalliker, Visalini

2017-04-01

Physical activity (PA) has been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular diseases, but the evidence linking PA with lower cancer risk is inconclusive. We examined the independent and interactive effects of PA and obesity using body mass index (BMI) as a proxy for obesity, on the risk of developing prostate (PC), postmenopausal breast (BC), colorectal (CRC), ovarian (OC) and uterine (UC) cancers. We estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for cancer specific confounders, in 6831 self-reported cancer cases and 1992 self-reported cancer-free controls from the Cancer Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study, using unconditional logistic regression. For women, BMI was positively associated with UC risk; specifically, obese women (BMI≥30kg/m 2 ) had nearly twice the risk of developing UC compared to women with healthy-BMI-range (risk of developing any cancer type, CRC and PC. In particular, obese men had 37% (OR=1.37;CI:1.11-1.70), 113% (OR=2.13;CI:1.55-2.91) and 51% (OR=1.51;CI:1.17-1.94) higher risks of developing any cancer, CRC and PC respectively, when compared to men with healthy-BMI-range (BMIrisks of CRC, UC and BC. In particular, the highest level of PA (versus nil activity) was associated with reduced risks of CRC (OR=0.60;CI:0.44-0.84) and UC (OR=0.47;CI:0.27-0.80). Reduced risks of BC were associated with low (OR=0.66;CI:0.51-0.86) and moderate (OR=0.72;CI:0.57-0.91) levels of PA. There was no association between PA levels and cancer risks for men. We found no evidence of an interaction between BMI and PA in the CLEAR study. These findings suggest that PA and obesity are independent cancer risk factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Social network, social support, and risk of incident stroke: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagayoshi, Mako; Everson-Rose, Susan A; Iso, Hiroyasu; Mosley, Thomas H; Rose, Kathryn M; Lutsey, Pamela L

2014-10-01

Having a small social network and lack of social support have been associated with incident coronary heart disease; however, epidemiological evidence for incident stroke is limited. We assessed the longitudinal association of a small social network and lack of social support with risk of incident stroke and evaluated whether the association was partly mediated by vital exhaustion and inflammation. The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study measured social network and social support in 13 686 men and women (mean, 57 years; 56% women; 24% black; 76% white) without a history of stroke. Social network was assessed by the 10-item Lubben Social Network Scale and social support by a 16-item Interpersonal Support Evaluation List-Short Form. During a median follow-up of 18.6 years, 905 incident strokes occurred. Relative to participants with a large social network, those with a small social network had a higher risk of stroke (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.44 [1.02-2.04]) after adjustment for demographics, socioeconomic variables, marital status, behavioral risk factors, and major stroke risk factors. Vital exhaustion, but not inflammation, partly mediated the association between a small social network and incident stroke. Social support was unrelated to incident stroke. In this sample of US community-dwelling men and women, having a small social network was associated with excess risk of incident stroke. As with other cardiovascular conditions, having a small social network may be associated with a modestly increased risk of incident stroke. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.
Discussion of some issues in risk study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qu Jingyuan; Liu Yuanzhong

1998-01-01

The concept of risk, the methods for assessing risk and the acceptability of risk are discussed. The emphasis was laid on the three components for complete description of a risk: scenario, probability and consequence of an event. The disadvantages of the concept and presentation of risk used in some risk analysis were pointed out. The paper emphasized that it is necessary to explicitly consider the multi-dimensionality of risk in the assessment and management of risk. Several important factors influencing the acceptability of risk and the methodology for evaluating the acceptability of risk were also described
Association between metabolic syndrome and bone fracture risk: A community-based study using a fracture risk assessment tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Chia-Ying; Chen, Fang-Ping; Chen, Li-Wei; Kuo, Sheng-Fong; Chien, Rong-Nan

2017-12-01

Osteoporosis and metabolic syndrome (MS) share similar risk factors. Previous studies of association between bone marrow density (BMD) and MS are controversial. Moreover, some studies revealed that MS is associated with BMD but not with bone fracture. In clinical practice, patients pay more attention to bone fracture risk than BMD values. Hence, this study aimed to evaluate the association between MS and the 10-year bone fracture risk probability using a fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) from community-based data. From March 2014 to August 2015, 2689 participants (897 men and 1792 women) were enrolled in this study. Inflammatory cytokines, such as tumor necrosis factor alpha and C-reactive protein, and adipokines were included for analysis.The mean age was 60.2 ± 10.7 years in men and 58.9 ± 9.6 years in women. The percentage of MS was 27.6% in men and 27.9% in women. Participants were divided into 2 groups, those with or without MS. Compared with women without MS, women with MS had a higher rate of fracture risk (22.8% vs 16.3%, P = .001). In contrast, men with MS had a lower rate of fracture risk then men without MS (5.6% vs 12.3%, P = .004). However, MS loss the association with a high bone fracture risk in men based on multivariate logistical regression analysis, after adjusting for confounding factor of body mass index (BMI). Conclusively, the result of regression analysis between MS and the bone fracture risk may be different in men and women, and BMI was an important confounding factor to interfere with the regression analysis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.
Risk Factors for Upper and Lower Urinary Tract Cancer Death in a Japanese Population: Findings from the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk (JACC Study).

Science.gov (United States)

Washio, Masakazu; Mori, Mitsuru; Mikami, Kazuya; Miki, Tsuneharu; Watanabe, Yoshiyuki; Nakao, Masahiro; Kubo, Tatsuhiko; Suzuki, Koji; Ozasa, Kotaro; Wakai, Kenji; Tamakoshi, Akiko

2016-01-01

The incidence of bladder cancer is lower in Asian than in Western countries. However, the crude incidence and mortality of bladder cancer have recently increased in Japan because of the increased number of senior citizens. We have already reported risk factors for urothelial cancer in a large populationbased cohort study in Japan (JACC study). However, we did not evaluate the cancer risk in the upper and lower urinary tract separately in our previous study. Here we evaluated the risk of cancer death in the upper and lower urinary tracts, separately, using the database of the JACC study. The analytic cohort included 46,395 males and 64,190 females aged 40 to 79 years old. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. Current smoking increased the risk of both upper and lower urinary tract cancer deaths. A history of kidney disease was associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer death, even after controlling for age, sex and smoking status. The present study confirmed that current smoking increases the risk of both upper and lower urinary tract cancer deaths and indicated the possibility that a history of kidney disease may be a risk factor for bladder cancer death in the Japanese population.
Fire Risk Scoping Study: Investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk, including previously unaddressed issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambright, J.A.; Nowlen, S.P.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

1989-01-01

An investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk issues raised as a result of the USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program at Sandia National Laboratories has been performed. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. In performance of the fire risk scenario requantifications several important insights were gained. It was found that utilization of a more extensive operational experience base resulted in both fire occurrence frequencies and fire duration times (i.e., time required for fire suppression) increasing significantly over those assumed in the original works. Additionally, some thermal damage threshold limits assumed in the original works were identified as being nonconservative based on more recent experimental data. Finally, application of the COMPBRN III fire growth model resulted in calculation of considerably longer fire damage times than those calculated in the original works using COMPBRN I. 14 refs., 2 figs., 16 tabs
Contamination of public transports by Staphylococcus aureus and its carriage by biomedical students: point-prevalence, related risk factors and molecular characterization of methicillin-resistant strains.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendes, Â; Martins da Costa, P; Rego, D; Beça, N; Alves, C; Moreira, T; Conceição, T; Aires-de-Sousa, M

2015-08-01

To analyse the contamination of public transports by Staphylococcus aureus and assess its carriage by biomedical students, focussing on the point-prevalence, related risk factors and molecular characterization of methicillin-resistant strains. Cross-sectional survey. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) isolated from handrails of buses (n = 112) and trains (n = 79) circulating in Porto and from nasal swabs of local university students (n = 475) were quantified, characterized by molecular typing methods and related to possible risk factors. The MRSA prevalence in buses (16.1%) was not significantly different from trains (8.9%). There was also no identifiable association between the counts of MSSA and MRSA in buses and trains and the number of travellers in each sampling day, specific routes (including those passing by main hospitals) or other risk factors. Of the students, 37.1% carried S. aureus, and having a part-time job or smoking were found to be risk factors for carriage. EMRSA-15 (ST22-SCCmecIVh) was the prevalent MRSA clonal lineage, found not only in the buses (n = 14) and trains (n = 2) but also in the single MRSA-carrier among the students. The characteristics of the community-associated Southwest Pacific MRSA clone were found in a single ST30-IVa isolate, which may suggest a recent SCCmec acquisition by an MSSA background in the community. The spread of EMRSA-15, a common hospital-associated lineage, among different public transports and as a nasal coloniser is of concern and warrants adequate public health control measures. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Incorporating uncertainties into risk assessment with an application to the exploratory studies facilities at Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fathauer, P.M.

1995-08-01

A methodology that incorporates variability and reducible sources of uncertainty into the probabilistic and consequence components of risk was developed. The method was applied to the north tunnel of the Exploratory Studies Facility at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. In this assessment, variability and reducible sources of uncertainty were characterized and propagated through the risk assessment models using a Monte Carlo based software package. The results were then manipulated into risk curves at the 5% and 95% confidence levels for both the variability and overall uncertainty analyses, thus distinguishing between variability and reducible sources of uncertainty. In the Yucca Mountain application, the designation of the north tunnel as an item important to public safety, as defined by 10 CFR 60, was determined. Specifically, the annual frequency of a rock fall breaching a waste package causing an off-site dose of 500 mrem (5x10 -3 Sv) was calculated. The annual frequency, taking variability into account, ranged from 1.9x10 -9 per year at the 5% confidence level to 2.5x10 -9 per year at the 95% confidence level. The frequency range after including all uncertainty was 9.5x10 -10 to 1.8x10 -8 per year. The maximum observable frequency, at the 100% confidence level, was 4.9x10 -8 per year. This is below the 10 -6 per year frequency criteria of 10 CFR 60. Therefore, based on this work, the north tunnel does not fall under the items important to public safety designation for the event studied

Managing Risk to the Patient: Recoding Quality Risk Management for the Pharmaceutical and Biopharmaceutical Industries

OpenAIRE

Waldron, Kelly

2017-01-01

This thesis explores the application of quality risk management (QRM) in pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical companies and its effectiveness at managing risk to the patient. The objective of the research described in this thesis was to characterize a maturity state of QRM implementation in which the patient is adequately protected from the risks associated with medicinal products of inadequate quality. The research was conducted over three phases: first, to determine whether patients are bet...
Correlational Study of Risk Management and Information Technology Project Success

Science.gov (United States)

Gillespie, Seth J.

2014-01-01

Many IT projects fail despite the best efforts to keep these projects within budget, schedule, and scope. Few studies have looked at the effect of project risk management tools and techniques on project success. The primary focus of this study was to examine the extent to which utilization of project risk management processes influence project…
Cardiorespiratory fitness, BMI, and risk of hypertension: the HYPGENE study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rankinen, Tuomo; Church, Timothy S; Rice, Treva; Bouchard, Claude; Blair, Steven N

2007-10-01

Cardiorespiratory fitness and regular physical activity are inversely associated with the risk of hypertension, and exercise training has been shown to lower elevated blood pressure (BP). Genetic factors contribute significantly to the interindividual differences in endurance training-induced changes in BP. However, similar data on the genotype-by-fitness interactions on the risk of hypertension are scarce. In 2000, we started a systematic collection of blood samples from all consenting subjects of the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study (ACLS) with a goal to generate a resource for studies addressing genotype-by-fitness interaction effects on various health-related end points. Here, we introduce the rationale and design of the first study based on the ACLS genetics resource focusing on hypertension as the health outcome (HYPGENE study), and we report the associations of cardiorespiratory fitness and body mass index (BMI) with the risk of hypertension. All HYPGENE subjects (N = 1234) were healthy and normotensive at their first clinic visit. Cases (N = 629) developed hypertension during the follow-up period (mean 8.7 yr), whereas controls (N = 605) remained normotensive (mean follow-up 10.1 yr). Cardiorespiratory fitness was the strongest predictor of the hypertension risk, with each maximal metabolic equivalent unit being associated with a 19% lower risk (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 12-24%). Each baseline BMI unit was associated with a 9% higher hypertension risk (95% CI, 4-13%). However, the association of BMI was greatly attenuated (odds ratio 1.04 [95% CI, 0.99-1.09]) when fitness also was included in the model. The HYPGENE study will provide an excellent resource to address hypotheses regarding the genetic basis of hypertension while taking cardiorespiratory fitness level into account.
Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2014-03-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.
Risk factors of kernicterus; a study in 312 icteric neonates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behjati Ardakani S

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Background: Kernicterus, also known as bilirubin encephalopathy, is a neurologic syndrome resulting from the deposition of unconjugated bilirubin in the basal ganglia and brainstem nuclei. Indirect bilirubin is toxic for brain. Neurologic dysfunction (BIND that include acute phase (hyperbilirubin encephalopathy and chronic phase (Kernicterus resulting from hyperbilirubinemia and disruption of blood brain barrier. In this study, the association between bilirubin encephalopathy and risk factors was evaluated. Methods: In this retrospective study, 312 icteric neonates were admitted in the neonatal ward of Children's Hospital, Medical Center, Tehran, and 305 of these cases were evaluated. Patient histories were taken and physical examinations were performed. For each patient, the age, sex, birth weight, time of discharge from the hospital and risk factors were recorded, and a questionnaire was completed. Results: In this study, of the 305 icteric neonates evaluated, 25 cases had kernicterus. Risk factors included acidosis, prematurity, hemolysis, hypoglycemia, sepsis, respiratory distress, low birth weight, ABO incompatibility and G6PD deficiency. The mean level of bilirubin in cases of kernicterus was 32 mg/dl and in the others was 20 mg/dl (p=0.001. Kernicterus was most common among high risk neonates (p<0.001. Birth weight less than 2,500 gm was also an important factor (p=0.04. Conclusion: High-risk neonates need prompt treatment for hyperbilirubinemia compared to low risk neonates.
A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2000-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)
Snus and risk of gastroesophageal reflux. A population-based case-control study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lie, Tina Malene; Bomme, Maria; Hveem, Kristian

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Tobacco smoking is a risk factor for gastroesophageal reflux, but whether other tobacco products increase the risk is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate if snus increases the risk of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms (GERS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study was based...
Alcohol and ovarian cancer risk: Results from the Netherlands Cohort Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schouten, L.J.; Zeegers, M.P.A.; Goldbohm, R.A.; Brandt, P.A. van den

2004-01-01

Objective: To study alcohol consumption in relation to ovarian cancer risk in a prospective cohort study. Methods: The Netherlands Cohort Study on diet and cancer was initiated in 1986. A self-administered questionnaire on dietary habits and other risk factors for cancer was completed by 62,573
Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, B.C.; Ermoliev, Y.; Ermolieva, T.

2005-01-01

We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- (Value at Risk) and CVaR-type risk (Conditional Value at Risk) measures. Combined with explicit introduction of 'safety' constraints, it creates a 'hit-or-miss' type decision making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties
Rollover risk, liquidity and macroprudential regulation

OpenAIRE

Ahnert, Toni

2014-01-01

I study rollover risk in the wholesale funding market when intermediaries can hold liquidity ex ante and are subject to fire sales ex post. Precautionary liquidity restores multiple equilibria in a global rollover game. An intermediate liquidity level supports both the usual run equilibrium and an efficient equilibrium. I provide a uniqueness refinement to characterize the privately optimal liquidity choice. Because of fire sales, liquidity holdings are strategic substitutes. Intermediaries f...
Studies of cancer risk among Chernobyl liquidators: materials and methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kesminiene, A.; Cardis, E.; Tenet, V.; Ivanov, V.K.; Kurtinaitis, J.; Malakhova, I.; Stengrevics, A.; Tekkel, M.

2002-01-01

The current paper presents the methods and design of two case-control studies among Chernobyl liquidators - one of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, the other of thyroid cancer risk - carried out in Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia. The specific objective of these studies is to estimate the radiation induced risk of these diseases among liquidators of the Chernobyl accident, and, in particular, to study the effect of exposure protraction and radiation type on the risk of radiation induced cancer in the low-to-medium- (0-500 mSv) radiation dose range. The study population consists of the approximately 10,000 Baltic, 40,000 Belarus and 51,000 Russian liquidators who worked in the 30 km zone in 1986-1987, and who were registered in the Chernobyl registry of these countries. The studies included cases diagnosed in 1993-1998 for all countries but Belarus, where the study period was extended until 2000. Four controls were selected in each country from the national cohort for each case, matched on age, gender and region of residence. Information on study subjects was obtained through face-to-face interview using a standardised questionnaire with questions on demographic factors, time, place and conditions of work as a liquidator and potential risk and confounding factors for the tumours of interest. Overall, 136 cases and 595 controls after receiving their consent were included in the studies. A method of analytical dose reconstruction has been developed, validated and applied to the estimation of doses and related uncertainties for all the subjects in the study. Dose-response analyses are underway and results are likely to have important implications to assess the adequacy of existing protection standards, which are based on risk estimates derived from analyses of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors and other high dose studies. (author)
The Risk-Stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation study (ROSE)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rubin, Katrine Hass; Holmberg, Teresa; Rothmann, Mette Juel

2015-01-01

The risk-stratified osteoporosis strategy evaluation study (ROSE) is a randomized prospective population-based study investigating the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. This paper reports the study design and baseline characteristics of the study population....... 35,000 women aged 65-80 years were selected at random from the population in the Region of Southern Denmark and-before inclusion-randomized to either a screening group or a control group. As first step, a self-administered questionnaire regarding risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX......(®) was issued to both groups. As second step, subjects in the screening group with a 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures ≥15 % were offered a DXA scan. Patients diagnosed with osteoporosis from the DXA scan were advised to see their GP and discuss pharmaceutical treatment according to Danish...
Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groer, P.G.

1980-01-01

New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)
Class II HLA interactions modulate genetic risk for multiple sclerosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moutsianas, Loukas; Jostins, Luke; Beecham, Ashley H

2015-01-01

Association studies have greatly refined the understanding of how variation within the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes influences risk of multiple sclerosis. However, the extent to which major effects are modulated by interactions is poorly characterized. We analyzed high-density SNP data on 17...
Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...
Risk of suicide in high risk pregnancy: an exploratory study.

Science.gov (United States)

Benute, Gláucia Rosana Guerra; Nomura, Roseli Mieko Yamamoto; Jorge, Vanessa Marques Ferreira; Nonnenmacher, Daniele; Fráguas Junior, Renério; Lucia, Mara Cristina Souza de; Zugaib, Marcelo

2011-01-01

To identify the risk of suicidal behavior in high-risk pregnant women at a public hospital in São Paulo. We conducted a semi-structured interview with each of the participants (n = 268) through a previously prepared questionnaire. Risk of suicidal behavior was assessed by the Portuguese version of PRIME-MD. The mean age of patients was 29 years (SD = 0.507) and gestation period was 30 weeks (SD = 0.556). Of the total sample, specific risk of suicide was found in 5% (n = 14). Of these, 85% have a stable relationship (married or cohabitating), the pregnancy was planned in 50% of cases, and 71% have no religion or professional activities. The correlation of risk of suicide with data from marital status, planned birth, age, education, professional practice, risk of prematurity, and religion showed that having a religion is statistically significant (p = 0.012). There were no positive associations for any of the other selected variables when compared with the risk of suicide. By correlating the risk of suicide with other characteristic symptoms of major depression, there was statistical significance in the sample with regard to insomnia or hypersomnia (p = 0.003), fatigue or loss of energy (p = 0.001), decreased or increased appetite (p = 0.005), less interest in daily activities (p = 0.000), depressed mood (p = 0.000), feelings of worthlessness or guilt (p = 0.000), decreased concentration (p = 0.002), and agitation or psychomotor retardation (p = 0.002). We found that religion can be a protective factor against suicidal behavior. Besides providing a social support network needed by women during pregnancy, religion supports belief in life after death and in a loving God, giving purpose to life and self esteem and providing models for coping with crises. The results show the importance of prevention and early diagnosis of suicidal behavior, since suicide is an attempt to move from one sphere to another by force, seeking to solve what seems impossible.
Nuclear and environmental risk perceptions: results from a study with university students

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boemer, Veronica Araujo; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de

2010-01-01

The deployment of advanced technologies depends on public acceptance. Studies on risk perception can assist decision makers in their choices and working methodology, as well as science communicators. In this work, the field study was conducted with a university population with the objective of compare the perceptions of nuclear risk and environmental. Concluding that the perception of environmental risk has excelled in public opinion, overcoming the perceived nuclear risk. (author)
Coffee and cardiovascular risk; an epidemiological study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.A.A. Bak (Annette)

1990-01-01

textabstractThis thesis comprises several studies on the effect of coffee and caffeine on cardiovascular risk in general, and the effect on serum lipids, blood pressure and selected hemostatic variables in particular. The association between coffee use and cardiovascular morbidity and
Expert risk perceptions and the social amplification of risk: A case study in invasive tree pests and diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Urquhart, Julie; Potter, Clive; Barnett, Julie; Fellenor, John; Mumford, John; Quine, Christopher P

2017-11-01

The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that it is possible to define a benchmark 'real' risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly problematic when there are high levels of scientific uncertainty and a lack of expert consensus about the nature of a risk and its impacts. In order to explore this further, this paper examines how 'experts' - defined in this case as scientists, policy makers, outbreak managers and key stakeholders - construct and assemble their understanding of the risks associated with two invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks in the UK, ash dieback and oak processionary moth. Through semi-structured interviews with experts in each of the case study outbreaks, the paper aims to better understand the nature of information sources drawn on to construct perceptions of tree health risks, especially when uncertainty is prevalent. A key conclusion is that risk assessment is a socially-mediated, relational and incremental process with experts drawing on a range of official, anecdotal and experiential sources of information, as well as reference to past events in order to assemble the risk case. Aligned with this, experts make attributions about public concern, especially when the evidence base is incomplete and there is a need to justify policy and management actions and safeguard reputation.
Prediction of Adulthood Obesity Using Genetic and Childhood Clinical Risk Factors in the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Seyednasrollah, Fatemeh; Mäkelä, Johanna; Pitkänen, Niina; Juonala, Markus; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Lehtimäki, Terho; Viikari, Jorma; Kelly, Tanika; Li, Changwei; Bazzano, Lydia; Elo, Laura L; Raitakari, Olli T

2017-06-01

Obesity is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Early prediction of obesity is essential for prevention. The aim of this study is to assess the use of childhood clinical factors and the genetic risk factors in predicting adulthood obesity using machine learning methods. A total of 2262 participants from the Cardiovascular Risk in YFS (Young Finns Study) were followed up from childhood (age 3-18 years) to adulthood for 31 years. The data were divided into training (n=1625) and validation (n=637) set. The effect of known genetic risk factors (97 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) was investigated as a weighted genetic risk score of all 97 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (WGRS97) or a subset of 19 most significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (WGRS19) using boosting machine learning technique. WGRS97 and WGRS19 were validated using external data (n=369) from BHS (Bogalusa Heart Study). WGRS19 improved the accuracy of predicting adulthood obesity in training (area under the curve [AUC=0.787 versus AUC=0.744, P obesity. Predictive accuracy is highest among young children (3-6 years), whereas among older children (9-18 years) the risk can be identified using childhood clinical factors. The model is helpful in screening children with high risk of developing obesity. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Cardiovascular risk assessment in type 2 diabetes mellitus: comparison of the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts versus UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine.

Science.gov (United States)

Herath, Herath M Meththananda; Weerarathna, Thilak Priyantha; Umesha, Dilini

2015-01-01

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at higher risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, and assessment of their cardiac risk is important for preventive strategies. The Ministry of Health of Sri Lanka has recommended World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts for cardiac risk assessment in individuals with T2DM. However, the most suitable cardiac risk assessment tool for Sri Lankans with T2DM has not been studied. This study was designed to evaluate the performance of two cardiac risk assessments tools; WHO/ISH charts and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Cardiac risk assessments were done in 2,432 patients with T2DM attending a diabetes clinic in Southern Sri Lanka using the two risk assessment tools. Validity of two assessment tools was further assessed by their ability to recognize individuals with raised low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and raised diastolic blood pressure in a cohort of newly diagnosed T2DM patients (n=332). WHO/ISH charts identified 78.4% of subjects as low cardiac risk whereas the UKPDS risk engine categorized 52.3% as low cardiac risk (Pengine identified higher proportions of patients (28%) compared to WHO/ISH charts (7%). Approximately 6% of subjects were classified as low cardiac risk (20%. Agreement between the two tools was poor (κ value =0.144, Pengine. Risk assessment by both assessment tools demonstrated poor sensitivity in identifying those with treatable levels of LDL cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure.
Fibromyalgia and Risk of Dementia-A Nationwide, Population-Based, Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tzeng, Nian-Sheng; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Liu, Feng-Cheng; Chiu, Yu-Hsiang; Chang, Hsin-An; Yeh, Chin-Bin; Huang, San-Yuan; Lu, Ru-Band; Yeh, Hui-Wen; Kao, Yu-Chen; Chiang, Wei-Shan; Tsao, Chang-Hui; Wu, Yung-Fu; Chou, Yu-Ching; Lin, Fu-Huang; Chien, Wu-Chien

2018-02-01

Fibromyalgia is a syndrome of chronic pain and other symptoms and is associated with patient discomfort and other diseases. This nationwide matched-cohort population-based study aimed to investigate the association between fibromyalgia and the risk of developing dementia, and to clarify the association between fibromyalgia and dementia. A total of 41,612 patients of age ≥50 years with newly diagnosed fibromyalgia between January 1, and December 31, 2000 were selected from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan, along with 124,836 controls matched for sex and age. After adjusting for any confounding factors, Fine and Gray competing risk analysis was used to compare the risk of developing dementia during the 10 years of follow-up. Of the study subjects, 1,704 from 41,612 fibromyalgia patients (21.23 per 1,000 person-years) developed dementia when compared to 4,419 from 124,836 controls (18.94 per 1,000 person-years). Fine and Gray competing risk analysis revealed that the study subjects were more likely to develop dementia (hazard ratio: 2.29, 95% CI: 2.16-2.42; P dementia in this study. The study subjects with fibromyalgia had a 2.77-fold risk of dementia in comparison to the control group. Therefore, further studies are needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of the association between fibromyalgia and the risk of dementia. Copyright © 2018 Southern Society for Clinical Investigation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Risk factors for gallbladder cancer: a case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Kajal; Sreenivas, V; Velpandian, T; Kapil, Umesh; Garg, Pramod Kumar

2013-04-01

Risk factors for gallbladder cancer (GBC) except gallstones are not well known. The objective was to study the risk factors for GBC. In a case-control study, 200 patients with GBC, 200 healthy controls and 200 gallstones patients as diseased controls were included prospectively. The risk factors studied were related to socioeconomic profile, life style, reproduction, diet and bile acids. On comparing GBC patients (mean age 51.7 years; 130 females) with healthy controls, risk factors were chemical exposure [odd ratios (OR): 7.0 (2.7-18.2); p < 0.001)], family history of gallstones [OR: 5.3 (1.5-18.9); p < 0.01)], tobacco [OR: 4.1 (1.8-9.7); p < 0.001)], fried foods [OR: 3.1 (1.7-5.6); p < 0.001], joint family [OR: 3.2 (1.7-6.2); p < 0.001], long interval between meals [OR: 1.4 (1.2-1.6); p < 0.001] and residence in Gangetic belt [OR: 3.3 (1.8-6.2); p < 0.001]. On comparing GBC cases with gallstone controls, risk factors were female gender [OR: 2.4 (1.3-4.3); p = 0.004], residence in Gangetic belt [OR: 2.3 (1.2-4.4); p = 0.012], fried foods [OR: 2.5 (1.4-4.4); p < 0.001], diabetes [OR: 2.7 (1.2-6.4); p = 0.02)], tobacco [OR 3.8 (1.7-8.1); p < 0.001)] and joint family [OR: 2.1 (1.2-3.4); p = 0.004]. The ratio of secondary to primary bile acids was significantly higher in GBC cases than gallstone controls (20.8 vs. 0.44). Fried foods, tobacco, chemical exposure, family history of gallstones, residence in Gangetic belt and secondary bile acids were significant risk factors for GBC. Copyright © 2012 UICC.
Risk factors of knee osteoarthritis, WHO-ILAR-COPCORD study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barghamdi M

2009-01-01

Full Text Available "nBackground: To evaluate the association between age, sex, BMI, waist/hip ratio, smoking, religion, ethnicity, education and knee osteoarthritis. "nMethods: Eligible subjects were randomly included from participants of Tehran COPCORD study, of whom 480 subjects with knee osteoarthritis were compared to 490 subjects without (case-control study. Using a questionnaire developed by COPCORD group (Asia & Oceania, we enquired about the risk factors of knee osteoarthritis i.e. age, sex, BMI, Waist/Hip ratio, religion, ethnicity, education and smoking. Knee osteoarthritis was defined using ACR criteria. Each knee was unit of analysis using GEE technique to evaluate these associations. "nResults: Age (OR; 1.096; CI95%: 1.091-1.1; P: 0.00 and sex (OR; 2.85; CI95%: 2.49-3.28; P: 0.00 showed significant association with knee osteoarthritis. Overweight (OR; 1.81; CI95%: 1.28-2.55; P: 0.00 and obesity (OR; 3.3; CI95%: 2.34-4.66; P: 0.00 both showed higher risk for knee osteoarthritis. The association between waist/hip ratio and knee osteoarthritis showed an OR of 5.28, CI95%: 0.89-31.44; P: 0.07. However, this association was only borderline significant. People with different religion or ethnicity and smokers had no extra risks for knee osteoarthritis. Higher education is a protective factor for knee osteoarthritis as people who had university education compared to people with no/primary education showed a lower risk for knee osteoarthritis (OR; 0.54; CI95%: 0.38-0.78; P: 0.00. "nConclusions: Our study confirmed that elderly, females, overweight and obese people are at higher risk to develop knee osteoarthritis as found in western societies. Higher education is a protective factor against knee osteoarthritis. Ethnicity, religion and smoking showed no extra risk of knee osteoarthritis.
VTE Risk assessment - a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinemann, Lothar Aj; Dominh, Thai; Assmann, Anita; Schramm, Wolfgang; Schürmann, Rolf; Hilpert, Jan; Spannagl, Michael

2005-04-18

BACKGROUND: Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER) study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18-55 years), was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993). The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. RESULTS: Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs). A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI) and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation). Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%), moderate risk (21.1%), high risk (6.0%), very high risk of future VTE (0.9%). In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic tool - containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data) - seems to be
ATM, radiation, and the risk of second primary breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernstein, Jonine L; Concannon, Patrick

2017-10-01

It was first suggested more than 40 years ago that heterozygous carriers for the human autosomal recessive disorder Ataxia-Telangiectasia (A-T) might also be at increased risk for cancer. Subsequent studies have identified the responsible gene, Ataxia-Telangiectasia Mutated (ATM), characterized genetic variation at this locus in A-T and a variety of different cancers, and described the functions of the ATM protein with regard to cellular DNA damage responses. However, an overall model of how ATM contributes to cancer risk, and in particular, the role of DNA damage in this process, remains lacking. This review considers these questions in the context of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). Heterozygous carriers of loss of function mutations in ATM that are A-T causing, are at increased risk of breast cancer. However, examination of a range of genetic variants, both rare and common, across multiple cancers, suggests that ATM may have additional effects on cancer risk that are allele-dependent. In the case of CBC, selected common alleles at ATM are associated with a reduced incidence of CBC, while other rare and predicted deleterious variants may act jointly with radiation exposure to increase risk. Further studies that characterize germline and somatic ATM mutations in breast cancer and relate the detected genetic changes to functional outcomes, particularly with regard to radiation responses, are needed to gain a complete picture of the complex relationship between ATM, radiation and breast cancer.
Major dietary patterns and cardiovascular risk factors from childhood to adulthood. The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Mikkilä, Vera; Räsänen, Leena; Raitakari, Olli T; Marniemi, Jukka; Pietinen, Pirjo; Rönnemaa, Tapani; Viikari, Jorma

2007-07-01

Studies on the impact of single nutrients on the risk of CVD have often given inconclusive results. Recent research on dietary patterns has offered promising information on the effects of diet as a whole on the risk of CVD. The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study is an ongoing, prospective cohort study with a 21-year follow-up to date. The subjects were children and adolescents at baseline (3-18 years, n 1768) and adults at the latest follow-up study (24-39 years, n 1037). We investigated the associations between two major dietary patterns and several risk factors for CVD. In longitudinal analyses with repeated measurements, using multivariate mixed linear regression models, the traditional dietary pattern (characterised by high consumption of rye, potatoes, butter, sausages, milk and coffee) was independently associated with total and LDL cholesterol concentrations, apolipoprotein B and C-reactive protein concentrations among both genders, and also with systolic blood pressure and insulin levels among women and concentrations of homocysteine among men (P health-conscious food choices (such as high consumption of vegetables, legumes and nuts, tea, rye, cheese and other dairy products, and alcoholic beverages) was inversely, but less strongly associated with cardiovascular risk factors. Our results support earlier findings that dietary patterns have a role in the development of CVD.
Patient Characterization Protocols for Psychophysiological Studies of Traumatic Brain Injury and Post-TBI Psychiatric Disorders

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Paul E. Rapp

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Psychophysiological investigations of traumatic brain injury (TBI are being conducted for several reasons, including the objective of learning more about the underlying physiological mechanisms of the pathological processes that can be initiated by a head injury. Additional goals include the development of objective physiologically based measures that can be used to monitor the response to treatment and to identify minimally symptomatic individuals who are at risk of delayed onset neuropsychiatric disorders following injury. Research programs studying TBI search for relationships between psychophysiological measures, particularly ERP component properties (e.g. timing, amplitude, scalp distribution, and a participant’s clinical condition. Moreover, the complex relationships between brain injury and psychiatric disorders are receiving increased research attention, and ERP technologies are making contributions to this effort. This review has two objectives supporting such research efforts. The first is to review evidence indicating that traumatic brain injury is a significant risk factor for post-injury neuropsychiatric disorders. The second objective is to introduce ERP researchers who are not familiar with neuropsychiatric assessment to the instruments that are available for characterizing traumatic brain injury, post-concussion syndrome, and psychiatric disorders. Specific recommendations within this very large literature are made. We have proceeded on the assumption that, as is typically the case in an ERP laboratory, the investigators are not clinically qualified and that they will not have access to participant medical records.
Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

1994-02-01

This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included
Using prior risk-related knowledge to support risk management decisions: lessons learnt from a tunneling project.

Science.gov (United States)

Cárdenas, Ibsen Chivatá; Al-Jibouri, Saad S H; Halman, Johannes I M; van de Linde, Wim; Kaalberg, Frank

2014-10-01

The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site- and project-specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk-related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk-related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk-related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic-causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are
Real-world antidiabetic drug use and fracture risk in 12,277 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a nested case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Losada, E; Soldevila, B; Ali, M S; Martínez-Laguna, D; Nogués, X; Puig-Domingo, M; Díez-Pérez, A; Mauricio, D; Prieto-Alhambra, D

2018-06-02

We conducted a nested case-control study to study the association between antidiabetic treatments (alone or in combination) use and fracture risk among incident type 2 Diabetes mellitus patients. We found an increased risk of bone fracture with insulin therapy compared to metformin monotherapy. Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have an increased risk of fragility fractures, to which antidiabetic therapies may contribute. We aimed to characterize the risk of fracture associated with different antidiabetic treatments as usually prescribed to T2DM patients in actual practice conditions. A case-control study was nested within a cohort of incident T2DM patients registered in 2006-2012 in the Information System for Research Development in Primary Care (Catalan acronym, SIDIAP), a database which includes records for > 5.5 million patients in Catalonia (Spain). Each case (incident major osteoporotic fracture) was risk-set matched with up to five same-sex controls by calendar year of T2DM diagnosis and year of birth (± 10 years). Study exposure included previous use of all antidiabetic medications (alone or in combination), as dispensed in the 6 months before the index date, with metformin (MTF) monotherapy, the most commonly used drug, as a reference group (active comparator). Data on 12,277 T2DM patients (2049 cases and 10,228 controls) were analyzed. Insulin use was associated with increased fracture risk (adjusted OR 1.63 (95% CI 1.30-2.04)), as was the combination of MTF and sulfonylurea (SU) (adjusted OR 1.29 (1.07-1.56)), compared with MTF monotherapy. Sensitivity analyses suggest possible causality for insulin therapy but not for the MTF + SU combination association. No significant association was found with any other antidiabetic medications. Insulin monotherapy was associated with an increased fracture risk compared to MTF monotherapy in T2DM patients. Fracture risk should be taken into account when starting a glucose-lowering drug as part
NEW MARKERS FOR CARDIOVASCULAR RISK: FROM STUDIES TO CLINICAL GUIDELINES

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D. A. Anichkov

2014-11-01

Full Text Available New markers for cardiovascular disease (CVD risk are the subject of an intensive discussion in the scientific literature. The biomarkers (newlipid parameters, inflammatory markers and signs of subclinical atherosclerosis are candidates to be included in models to assess the cumulative risk of CVD. The paper considers the basic studies dealing with new markers of CVD risk and their place in current clinical recommendations.
Studies on site characterization methodologies for high level radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ju; Guo Yonghai; Chen Weiming

2008-01-01

This paper presents the final achievement of the project 'Studies of Site-specific Geological Environment for High Level Waste Disposal and Performance Assessment Methodology, Part Ⅰ: Studies on Site Characterization Methodologies for High Level Radioactive Waste Disposal', which is a 'Key Scientific and Technological Pre-Research Project for National Defense' during 2001-2005. The study area is Beishan area, Gansu Province, NW China--the most potential site for China's underground research laboratory and high level radioactive waste repository. The boreholes BS01, BS2, BS03 and BS04 drilled in fractured granite media in Beishan are used to conduct comprehensive studies on site characterization methodologies, including: bore hole drilling method, in situ measurement methods of hydrogeological parameters, underground water sampling technology, hydrogeochemical logging method, geo-stress measurement method, acoustic borehole televiewer measurement method, borehole radar measurement method, fault stability evaluation methods and rock joint evaluation method. The execution of the project has resulted in the establishment of an 'Integrated Methodological System for Site Characterization in Granite Site for High Level Radioactive Waste Repository' and the 8 key methodologies for site characterization: bore hole drilling method with minimum disturbance to rock mass, measurement method for hydrogeological parameters of fracture granite mass, in situ groundwater sampling methods from bore holes in fractured granite mass, fracture measurement methods by borehole televiewer and bore radar system, hydrogeochemical logging, low permeability measurement methods, geophysical methods for rock mass evaluation, modeling methods for rock joints. Those methods are comprehensive, advanced, innovative, practical, reliable and of high accuracy. The comprehensive utilization of those methods in granite mass will help to obtain systematic parameters of
Sudbury soils study : human health and ecological risk assessment : a case study in science, process and perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wren, C.

2009-01-01

This presentation discussed the public relations and public opinion strategies used as part of a soils study conducted to assess the risk of mining activities in the Sudbury region to human health and the environment. The human health risk assessment (HHRA) study was conducted and administered by a multi-stakeholder technical committee attended by the public. The study was comprised of extensive soil collection and analysis; a review of historical soils data; and extensive human health and ecological risk assessments. Extensive sampling was also conducted on air, dust, and locally-produced foods. A public advisory committee was formed to disseminate scientific information to the community. Scientific data obtained in the study were reviewed by experts in various fields. Results of the study were also peer-reviewed by an independent expert review panel comprised of leading specialists in human health, toxicology, speciation, and risk assessment. The study showed that the identified risks were over-estimated in the interest of protecting human health. It was concluded that the HHRA's findings were generally accepted by the public. tabs., figs
Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

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Wolt Jeffrey D

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.
Risk Evaluation for Cyclic Aliphatic Bromide Cluster (HBCD Cluster)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.
Basic principles and results of the German risk study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heuser, F.W.; Bayer, A.

1980-01-01

In June 1976 the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology had commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit to write the German Risk Study, the first part of which has now been completed after three years of work and has been publicized recently. The German Risk Study is an attempt to define the societal risk posed by accidents in nuclear power plants under conditions in Germany. For this purpose, the accident rates and the resultant health hazards were determined. By adopting most of the basic premises and methods of the American Rasmussen Study, the German study is to allow a comparison to be made with the results of that study. The calculations were based on 19 sites with a total of 25 nuclear generating units presently in operation, under construction or in the licensing procedure in the Federal Republic of Germany. The technical studies were conducted on a 1300 MW PWR as the representative example. The results show that the decisive contributions are made by uncontrolled minor loss-of-coolant accidents and by failures of power supply (emergency power case). Large loss-of-coolant accidents do not play a role. The study also shows the decisive safety function of the containment. (orig.) [de
Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

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Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc
Is there dependence and systemic risk between oil and renewable energy stock prices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reboredo, Juan C.

2015-01-01

We study systemic risk and dependence between oil and renewable energy markets using copulas to characterize the dependence structure and to compute the conditional value-at-risk as a measure of systemic risk. We found significant time-varying average and symmetric tail dependence between oil returns and several global and sectoral renewable energy indices. Our evidence on systemic risk indicates that oil price dynamics significantly contributes around 30% to downside and upside risk of renewable energy companies. These results have important implications for risk management and renewable energy policies. - Highlights: • We study systemic risk and dependence between oil and renewable energy markets. • Dependence and conditional value-at-risk is obtained through copulas. • Oil and renewable energy displayed time-varying average and symmetric tail dependence. • Oil price contribution to the downside and upside risks of renewable energy companies was around 30%
Risk-based analyses in support of California hazardous site remediation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringland, J.T.

1995-08-01

The California Environmental Enterprise (CEE) is a joint program of the Department of Energy (DOE), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Its goal is to make DOE laboratory expertise accessible to hazardous site cleanups in the state This support might involve working directly with parties responsible for individual cleanups or it might involve working with the California Environmental Protection Agency to develop tools that would be applicable across a broad range of sites. As part of its initial year's activities, the CEE supported a review to examine where laboratory risk and risk-based systems analysis capabilities might be most effectively applied. To this end, this study draws the following observations. The labs have a clear role in analyses supporting the demonstration and transfer of laboratory characterization or remediation technologies. The labs may have opportunities in developing broadly applicable analysis tools and computer codes for problems such as site characterization or efficient management of resources. Analysis at individual sites, separate from supporting lab technologies or prototyping general tools, may be appropriate only in limited circumstances. In any of these roles, the labs' capabilities extend beyond health risk assessment to the broader areas of risk management and risk-based systems analysis

IMPLEMENTATION OF RISK-MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN ENTERPRISE IN CONDITIONS OF INNOVATION ACTIVITY

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Vereshchagina Ganna

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Search approaches to assessment and risk management was one of the priority directions of development of modern enterprises. That is why the study of the formation of enterprise risk management in terms of innovation and development of risk management systems in the enterprise is becoming increasingly relevant. Purpose. The aim of this research is to identify the essence of the concept of «risk» and «risk management», to analyze of risk management functions and existing models of risk management, to generalize of risk management process for further minimization of negative consequences and reduce the probability of occurrence of risks in the process of economic activity of enterprises in terms of innovation. Results. In the article the authors analyzed the main approaches to the definition of the concepts «risk» and «risk management». The main functions of risk management, namely forecasting (planning, organization, control, coordination and motivation, are analyzed, and their main characteristics are given. The combination of the performance of all risk management functions in the context of innovation activity allows us to characterize risk management from the viewpoint of a process management approach as a series of consistent management actions characterized by the following stages of the risk management process: analysis and identification, qualitative risk assessment, quantitative risk assessment, risk control, choice of optimization / avoidance or risk prevention methods, development of a management decision, decision-making, impact on risk, evaluation of results and their correcting. Features of existing risk management models and their distinctive features, as well as the main directions and methods of risk management are considered. Conclusions. It is revealed that the process of risk management includes not only the methods for reducing the risk factors of innovation risk, but also the methods for using the
Seroepidemiological Study of Brucellosis in High Risk Groups in Boyerahmad 1384

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AM Khosravani

2007-01-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Introduction & Objective: Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease that may have a major public health and economic impact in most countries. The disease appears as a Malt fever in humans and abortion in animals. This study was designed to determine the serologic titer of Brucella in high risk and non high risk people in Boyerahmad. Materials & Methods: A retrospective seroepidemiological study was performed on samples collected from 604 high risk and non high risk people using Rose Bengol test, tube standard test as a rapid test and 2 mercaptoethanol (2ME and comb's wright as a confirmatory test. The data collected were analyzed by X2 test via SPSS. Results: Seroprevalence of Brucellosis in high risk people appeared to be high in the Rose Bengal and tube standard test (TST 6.62 at titer ≥1/40 whereas for non high risk it was 0%. Confirmation test in high risk people was shown with 2ME in four people. Conclusion: Brucellosis is a major cause of disease in high risk people which can be due to direct or indirect contact with diary products of the related animals.
Characterization and source apportionment of health risks from ambient PM10 in Hong Kong over 2000-2011

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhiyuan; Yuan, Zibing; Li, Ying; Lau, Alexis K. H.; Louie, Peter K. K.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) pollution is a major public health concern in Hong Kong. In this study, the spatiotemporal variations of health risks from ambient PM10 from seven air quality monitoring stations between 2000 and 2011 were analyzed. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) was adopted to identify major source categories of ambient PM10 and quantify their contributions. Afterwards, a point-estimated risk model was used to identify the inhalation cancer and non-cancer risks of PM10 sources. The long-term trends of the health risks from classified local and non-local sources were explored. Furthermore, the reason for the increase of health risks during high PM10 days was discussed. Results show that vehicle exhaust source was the dominant inhalation cancer risk (ICR) contributor (72%), whereas trace metals and vehicle exhaust sources contributed approximately 27% and 21% of PM10 inhalation non-cancer risk (INCR), respectively. The identified local sources accounted for approximately 80% of the ICR in Hong Kong, while contribution percentages of the non-local and local sources for INCR are comparable. The clear increase of ICR at high PM days was mainly attributed to the increase of contributions from coal combustion/biomass burning and secondary sulfate, while the increase of INCR at high PM days was attributed to the increase of contributions from the sources coal combustion/biomass burning, secondary nitrate, and trace metals. This study highlights the importance of health risk-based source apportionment in air quality management with protecting human health as the ultimate target.
Physical activity, obesity, weight change, and risk of atrial fibrillation: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

Science.gov (United States)

Huxley, Rachel R; Misialek, Jeffrey R; Agarwal, Sunil K; Loehr, Laura R; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Chen, Lin Y; Alonso, Alvaro

2014-08-01

Physical activity (PA) has previously been suggested to attenuate the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) conferred by excess body weight and weight gain. We prospectively examined the relationship between body size, weight change, and level of PA in a biracial cohort of middle-aged men and women. Baseline characteristics on risk factor levels were obtained on 14 219 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. AF incidence was ascertained from 1987 to 2009. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the associations between body mass index, waist circumference, relative weight change, and PA level with incident AF. During follow-up, there were 1775 cases of incident AF. Body mass index and waist circumference were positively associated with AF as was weight loss/gain of >5% initial body weight. An ideal level of PA had a small protective effect on AF risk and partially attenuated the risk of AF associated with excess weight in men but not women: compared with men with a normal body mass index, the risk of AF in obese men with an ideal, intermediate, and poor level of PA at baseline was increased by 37%, 129%, and 156% (Pinteraction=0.04). During follow-up, PA did not modify the association between weight gain and risk of AF. Obesity and extreme weight change are risk factors for incident AF, whereas being physically active is associated with a small reduction in risk. In men only, being physically active offset some, but not all, of the risk incurred with excess body weight. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.
Cancer and risk of cerebral venous thrombosis: a case-control study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Silvis, S. M.; Hiltunen, S.; Lindgren, E.; Jood, K.; Zuurbier, S. M.; Middeldorp, S.; Putaala, J.; Cannegieter, S. C.; Tatlisumak, T.; Coutinho, J. M.

2018-01-01

Background: Cancer is an established risk factor for leg vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. Controlled studies assessing the risk of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) in patients with cancer have not been performed. Objective: To assess whether cancer is a risk factor for CVT. Patients/Methods:
Gout in Older Adults: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Science.gov (United States)

Burke, Bridget Teevan; Köttgen, Anna; Law, Andrew; Grams, Morgan; Baer, Alan N.; Coresh, Josef

2016-01-01

Background: It is unclear whether traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age predict the onset of gout in older age. Methods: We studied the incidence of gout in older adults using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective U.S. population–based cohort of middle-aged adults enrolled between 1987 and 1989 with ongoing follow-up. A genetic urate score was formed from common urate-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms for eight genes. The adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval of incident gout by traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results: The cumulative incidence from middle age to age 65 was 8.6% in men and 2.5% in women; by age 75 the cumulative incidence was 11.8% and 5.0%. In middle age, increased adiposity, beer intake, protein intake, smoking status, hypertension, diuretic use, and kidney function (but not sex) were associated with an increased gout risk in older age. In addition, a 100 µmol/L increase in genetic urate score was associated with a 3.29-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.63–6.63) increased gout risk in older age. Conclusions: These findings suggest that traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age may be useful for identifying those at risk of gout in older age. PMID:26714568
Characterization of zeolite Y pastilles for the ortho-positronium annihilation studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarado D, E.; Garcia S, I.; Cabral P, A.

2008-01-01

This paper presents the characterization of zeolite Y pastilles prior to their study by the Positronium Annihilation Lifetimes Spectroscopy. The characterization is the estimation of porosity, the determination of its purity and crystal size for X-ray diffraction, the determination of its morphology and particle size by scanning electron microscopy and its specific area by the Brunauer-Emmett-Teller method. Presenting the first lifetimes measurements of positronium in zeolites LTA and Y. (Author)
Preliminary Hydrogeologic Characterization Results from the Wallula Basalt Pilot Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

B.P. McGrail; E. C. Sullivan; F. A. Spane; D. H. Bacon; G. Hund; P. D. Thorne; C. J. Thompson; S. P. Reidel; F. S. Colwell

2009-12-01

The DOE's Big Sky Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership has completed drilling the first continental flood basalt sequestration pilot borehole to a total depth (TD) of 4,110 feet on the Boise White Paper Mill property at Wallula, Washington. Site suitability was assessed prior to drilling by the 2007-2008 acquisition, processing and analysis of a four-mile, five-line three component seismic swath, which was processed as a single data-dense line. Analysis of the seismic survey data indicated a composite basalt formation thickness of {approx}8,000 feet and absence of major geologic structures (i.e., faults) along the line imaged by the seismic swath. Drilling of Wallula pilot borehole was initiated on January 13, 2009 and reached TD on April 6, 2009. Based on characterization results obtained during drilling, three basalt breccia zones were identified between the depth interval of 2,716 and 2,910 feet, as being suitable injection reservoir for a subsequent CO2 injection pilot study. The targeted injection reservoir lies stratigraphically below the massive Umtanum Member of the Grande Ronde Basalt, whose flow-interior section possesses regionally recognized low-permeability characteristics. The identified composite injection zone reservoir provides a unique and attractive opportunity to scientifically study the reservoir behavior of three inter-connected reservoir intervals below primary and secondary caprock confining zones. Drill cuttings, wireline geophysical logs, and 31one-inch diameter rotary sidewall cores provided geologic data for characterization of rock properties. XRF analyses of selected rock samples provided geochemical characterizations of the rocks and stratigraphic control for the basalt flows encountered by the Wallula pilot borehole. Based on the geochemical results, the pilot borehole was terminated in the Wapshilla Ridge 1 flow of the Grande Ronde Basalt Formation. Detailed hydrologic test characterizations of 12 basalt interflow
Proliferation Risk Characterization Model Prototype Model - User and Programmer Guidelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dukelow, J.S.; Whitford, D.

1998-12-01

A model for the estimation of the risk of diversion of weapons-capable materials was developed. It represents both the threat of diversion and site vulnerability as a product of a small number of variables (two to eight), each of which can take on a small number (two to four) of qualitatively defined (but quantitatively implemented) values. The values of the overall threat and vulnerability variables are then converted to threat and vulnerability categories. The threat and vulnerability categories are used to define the likelihood of diversion, also defined categorically. The evaluator supplies an estimate of the consequences of a diversion, defined categorically, but with the categories based on the IAEA Attractiveness levels. Likelihood and Consequences categories are used to define the Risk, also defined categorically. The threat, vulnerability, and consequences input provided by the evaluator contains a representation of his/her uncertainty in each variable assignment which is propagated all the way through to the calculation of the Risk categories. [Appendix G available on diskette only.
Fall risk factors in Parkinson's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, P; Hildebrand, K

2000-08-01

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by tremor, rigidity, bradykinesia, gait disturbance, and postural instability. Patients with PD suffer frequent falls, yet little research has been done to identify risks specific to PD patients. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with falls for PD patients through the collection of demographic, environmental, and medical information as well as fall diaries completed during a 3-month period. Patients with a diagnosis of idiopathic PD, with and without falls, were included in the study provided they could stand and walk and had no other condition that could predispose them to falls. Of the 118 participants, 59% reported one or more falls. A total of 237 falls were reported. Duration and severity of PD symptoms, particularly freezing, involuntary movements, and walking and postural difficulties, were significantly associated with an increased risk of falls. Other factors associated with falls were postural hypotension and daily intake of alcohol. Forty percent of falls resulted in injury, but serious injury was rare. The findings have implications for reducing the risk of falls through patient education.
Risk Perception as the Quantitative Parameter of Ethics and Responsibility in Disaster Study

Science.gov (United States)

Kostyuchenko, Yuriy; Movchan, Dmytro

2014-05-01

Intensity of impacts of natural disasters is increasing with climate and ecological changes spread. Frequency of disasters is increasing, and recurrence of catastrophes characterizing by essential spatial heterogeneity. Distribution of losses is fundamentally non-linear and reflects complex interrelation of natural, social and environmental factor in the changing world on multi scale range. We faced with new types of risks, which require a comprehensive security concept. Modern understanding of complex security, and complex risk management require analysis of all natural and social phenomena, involvement of all available data, constructing of advanced analytical tools, and transformation of our perception of risk and security issues. Traditional deterministic models used for risk analysis are difficult applicable for analysis of social issues, as well as for analysis of multi scale multi-physics phenomena quantification. Also parametric methods are not absolutely effective because the system analyzed is essentially non-ergodic. The stochastic models of risk analysis are applicable for quantitative analysis of human behavior and risk perception. In framework of risk analysis models the risk perception issues were described. Risk is presented as the superposition of distribution (f(x,y)) and damage functions (p(x,y)): P →δΣ x,yf(x,y)p(x,y). As it was shown risk perception essentially influents to the damage function. Basing on the prospect theory and decision making under uncertainty on cognitive bias and handling of risk, modification of damage function is proposed: p(x,y|α(t)). Modified damage function includes an awareness function α(t), which is the system of risk perception function (rp) and function of education and log-term experience (c) as: α(t) → (c - rp). Education function c(t) describes the trend of education and experience. Risk perception function rp reflects security concept of human behavior, is the basis for prediction of socio-economic and
Cardioprotective aspirin users and their excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; García Rodríguez, Luis A

2006-09-20

To balance the cardiovascular benefits from low-dose aspirin against the gastrointestinal harm caused, studies have considered the coronary heart disease risk for each individual but not their gastrointestinal risk profile. We characterized the gastrointestinal risk profile of low-dose aspirin users in real clinical practice, and estimated the excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin among patients with different gastrointestinal risk profiles. To characterize aspirin users in terms of major gastrointestinal risk factors (i.e., advanced age, male sex, prior ulcer history and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), we used The General Practice Research Database in the United Kingdom and the Base de Datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria in Spain. To estimate the baseline risk of upper gastrointestinal complications according to major gastrointestinal risk factors and the excess risk attributable to aspirin within levels of these factors, we used previously published meta-analyses on both absolute and relative risks of upper gastrointestinal complications. Over 60% of aspirin users are above 60 years of age, 4 to 6% have a recent history of peptic ulcers and over 13% use other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The estimated average excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin is around 5 extra cases per 1,000 aspirin users per year. However, the excess risk varies in parallel to the underlying gastrointestinal risk and might be above 10 extra cases per 1,000 person-years in over 10% of aspirin users. In addition to the cardiovascular risk, the underlying gastrointestinal risk factors have to be considered when balancing harms and benefits of aspirin use for an individual patient. The gastrointestinal harms may offset the cardiovascular benefits in certain groups of patients where the gastrointestinal risk is high and the cardiovascular risk is low.
A population-based study on alcohol and high-risk sexual behaviors in Botswana.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheri D Weiser

2006-10-01

Full Text Available In Botswana, an estimated 24% of adults ages 15-49 years are infected with HIV. While alcohol use is strongly associated with HIV infection in Africa, few population-based studies have characterized the association of alcohol use with specific high-risk sexual behaviors.We conducted a cross-sectional, population-based study of 1,268 adults from five districts in Botswana using a stratified two-stage probability sample design. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess correlates of heavy alcohol consumption (>14 drinks/week for women, and >21 drinks/week for men as a dependent variable. We also assessed gender-specific associations between alcohol use as a primary independent variable (categorized as none, moderate, problem and heavy drinking and several risky sex outcomes including: (a having unprotected sex with a nonmonogamous partner; (b having multiple sexual partners; and (c paying for or selling sex in exchange for money or other resources. Criteria for heavy drinking were met by 31% of men and 17% of women. Adjusted correlates of heavy alcohol use included male gender, intergenerational relationships (age gap > or =10 y, higher education, and living with a sexual partner. Among men, heavy alcohol use was associated with higher odds of all risky sex outcomes examined, including unprotected sex (AOR = 3.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65 to 7.32, multiple partners (AOR = 3.08; 95% CI, 1.95 to 4.87, and paying for sex (AOR = 3.65; 95% CI, 2.58 to 12.37. Similarly, among women, heavy alcohol consumption was associated with higher odds of unprotected sex (AOR = 3.28; 95% CI, 1.71 to 6.28, multiple partners (AOR = 3.05; 95% CI, 1.83 to 5.07, and selling sex (AOR = 8.50; 95% CI, 3.41 to 21.18. A dose-response relationship was seen between alcohol use and risky sexual behaviors, with moderate drinkers at lower risk than both problem and heavy drinkers.Alcohol use is associated with multiple risks for HIV transmission among both men
Variations of emission characterization of PAHs emitted from different utility boilers of coal-fired power plants and risk assessment related to atmospheric PAHs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Ruwei [CAS Key Laboratory of Crust-Mantle and the Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi' an 710075, Shanxi (China); Liu, Guijian, E-mail: lgj@ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Crust-Mantle and the Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi' an 710075, Shanxi (China); Zhang, Jiamei [CAS Key Laboratory of Crust-Mantle and the Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China)

2015-12-15

Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) represent important source of atmospheric PAHs, however, their emission characterization are still largely unknown. In this work, the concentration, distribution and gas-particle partitioning of PM{sub 10}- and gas-phase PAHs in flue gas emitted from different coal-fired utility boilers were investigated. Moreover, concentration and distribution in airborne PAHs from different functional areas of power plants were studied. People's inhalatory and dermal exposures to airborne PAHs at these sites were estimated and their resultant lung cancer and skin cancer risks were assessed. Results indicated that the boiler capacity and operation conditions have significant effect on PAH concentrations in both PM{sub 10} and gas phases due to the variation of combustion efficiency, whereas they take neglected effect on PAH distributions. The wet flue gas desulphurization (WFGD) takes significant effect on the scavenging of PAH in both PM{sub 10} and gas phases, higher scavenging efficiency were found for less volatile PAHs. PAH partitioning is dominated by absorption into organic matter and accompanied by adsorption onto PM{sub 10} surface. In addition, different partitioning mechanism is observed for individual PAHs, which is assumed arising from their chemical affinity and vapor pressure. Risk assessment indicates that both inhalation and dermal contact greatly contribute to the cancer risk for CFPP workers and nearby residents. People working in workshop are exposed to greater inhalation and dermal exposure risk than people living in nearby vicinity and working office. - Highlights: • PAH distribution in PM{sub 10} and gas phases primarily depend on the vapor pressure. • Combustion conditions and WFGD show typical effects on PAH level and profile. • PAH partitioning is dominated by absorption and also accompanied by adsorption. • Individual PAHs show different partitioning mechanisms in PM{sub 10}- and gas-phases. • People in
Modelling and propagation of uncertainties in the German Risk Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hofer, E.; Krzykacz, B.

1982-01-01

Risk assessments are generally subject to uncertainty considerations. This is because of the various estimates that are involved. The paper points out those estimates in the so-called phase A of the German Risk Study, for which uncertainties were quantified. It explains the probabilistic models applied in the assessment to their impact on the findings of the study. Finally the resulting subjective confidence intervals of the study results are presented and their sensitivity to these probabilistic models is investigated
Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study

Science.gov (United States)

Otsuki, Shiori

2016-01-01

Background An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013–16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. Methodology/Principal Findings The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. Conclusions The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission. PMID:27657544
Quantitative risk assessment for environmental and occupational health. The practical solution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hallenbeck, W.H.; Cunningham, K.M.

1986-01-01

These following topics are covered in this book: concepts, methods, and limitations; exposure characterization; qualitative evaluation of human and animal studies; quantitative evaluation of human and animal studies; risk analysis; acceptable concentrations; environmental and occupational exposure to a hypothetical toxicant; and environmental exposure to a natural toxicant radon-222 and its daughters
Smoking and high-risk mammographic parenchymal patterns: a case-control study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sala, Evis; Warren, Ruth; McCann, Jenny; Duffy, Stephen; Luben, Robert; Day, Nicholas

2000-01-01

Current smoking was strongly and inversely associated with high-risk patterns, after adjustment for concomitant risk factors. Relative to never smokers, current smokers were significantly less likely to have a high-risk pattern. Similar results were obtained when the analysis was confined to postmenopausal women. Past smoking was not related to the mammographic parenchymal patterns. The overall effect in postmenopausal women lost its significance when adjusted for other risk factors for P2/DY patterns that were found to be significant in the present study, although the results are still strongly suggestive. The present data indicate that adjustment for current smoking status is important when evaluating the relationship between mammographic parenchymal pattern and breast cancer risk. They also indicate that smoking is a prominent potential confounder when analyzing effects of other risk factors such as obesity-related variables. It appears that parenchymal patterns may act as an informative biomarker of the effect of cigarette smoking on breast cancer risk. Overall, epidemiological studies [1,2,3,4] have reported no substantial association between cigarette smoking and the risk of breast cancer. Some studies [5,6,7] reported a significant increase of breast cancer risk among smokers. In recent studies that addressed the association between breast cancer and cigarette smoking, however, there was some suggestion of a decreased risk [8,9,10], especially among current smokers, ranging from approximately 10 to 30% [9,10]. Brunet et al [11] reported that smoking might reduce the risk of breast cancer by 44% in carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene mutations. Wolfe [12] described four different mammographic patterns created by variations in the relative amounts of fat, epithelial and connective tissue in the breast, designated N1, P1, P2 and DY. Women with either P2 or DY pattern are considered at greater risk for breast cancer than those with N1 or P1 pattern [12
Long-term Risk of Dementia in Persons With Schizophrenia: A Danish Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ribe, Anette Riisgaard; Laursen, Thomas Munk; Charles, Morten; Katon, Wayne; Fenger-Grøn, Morten; Davydow, Dimitry; Chwastiak, Lydia; Cerimele, Joseph M; Vestergaard, Mogens

2015-11-01

Although schizophrenia is associated with several age-related disorders and considerable cognitive impairment, it remains unclear whether the risk of dementia is higher among persons with schizophrenia compared with those without schizophrenia. To determine the risk of dementia among persons with schizophrenia compared with those without schizophrenia in a large nationwide cohort study with up to 18 years of follow-up, taking age and established risk factors for dementia into account. This population-based cohort study of more than 2.8 million persons aged 50 years or older used individual data from 6 nationwide registers in Denmark. A total of 20 683 individuals had schizophrenia. Follow-up started on January 1, 1995, and ended on January 1, 2013. Analysis was conducted from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2015. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and cumulative incidence proportions (CIPs) of dementia for persons with schizophrenia compared with persons without schizophrenia. During 18 years of follow-up, 136 012 individuals, including 944 individuals with a history of schizophrenia, developed dementia. Schizophrenia was associated with a more than 2-fold higher risk of all-cause dementia (IRR, 2.13; 95% CI, 2.00-2.27) after adjusting for age, sex, and calendar period. The estimates (reported as IRR; 95% CI) did not change substantially when adjusting for medical comorbidities, such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus (2.01; 1.89-2.15) but decreased slightly when adjusting for substance abuse (1.71; 1.60-1.82). The association between schizophrenia and dementia risk was stable when evaluated in subgroups characterized by demographics and comorbidities, although the IRR was higher among individuals younger than 65 years (3.77; 3.29-4.33), men (2.38; 2.13-2.66), individuals living with a partner (3.16; 2.71-3.69), those without cerebrovascular disease (2.23; 2.08-2.39), and those without substance abuse (1.96; 1.82-2.11). The CIPs (95% CIs) of developing
Cardiovascular risk from water arsenic exposure in Vietnam: Application of systematic review and meta-regression analysis in chemical health risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Phung, Dung; Connell, Des; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia

2017-06-01

A systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis cannot provide the endpoint answer for a chemical risk assessment (CRA). The objective of this study was to apply SR and meta-regression (MR) analysis to address this limitation using a case study in cardiovascular risk from arsenic exposure in Vietnam. Published studies were searched from PubMed using the keywords of arsenic exposure and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Random-effects meta-regression was applied to model the linear relationship between arsenic concentration in water and risk of CVD, and then the no-observable-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) were identified from the regression function. The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique was applied to characterize risk of CVD due to arsenic exposure by estimating the overlapping coefficient between dose-response and exposure distribution curves. The risks were evaluated for groundwater, treated and drinking water. A total of 8 high quality studies for dose-response and 12 studies for exposure data were included for final analyses. The results of MR suggested a NOAEL of 50 μg/L and a guideline of 5 μg/L for arsenic in water which valued as a half of NOAEL and guidelines recommended from previous studies and authorities. The results of PRA indicated that the observed exposure level with exceeding CVD risk was 52% for groundwater, 24% for treated water, and 10% for drinking water in Vietnam, respectively. The study found that systematic review and meta-regression can be considered as an ideal method to chemical risk assessment due to its advantages to bring the answer for the endpoint question of a CRA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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