Post-mortem findings in Irish culled hounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahns, H; Callanan, J J; McElroy, M C; Sammin, D J; Bassett, H F

2011-07-01

Little is known of the common diseases of hunting dogs or of the reasons why they are culled. To address these questions, necropsy examinations were conducted on 52 hounds aged 1.5-12 years (mean 6.5 ± 2.5 years) and culled from 10 Irish hunting kennels over a 3-year period. Progressive systemic disease was seen in six dogs only and encompassed individual cases of tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium bovis, bronchioalveolar carcinoma with metastasis to regional lymph nodes, renal amyloidosis, suppurative pneumonia, extramedullary plasmacytoma in the atrial wall of the heart and foreign body-induced hepatitis with focal peritonitis. Single or multiple localized tumours were identified in five dogs and, apart from the aforementioned, included two cutaneous haemangiomas, a trichoepithelioma, a lipoma and a mammary ductal adenoma. Three dogs were culled for lameness; one of these dogs had torn musculature, another had cellulitis and the third had a healed fracture of the tibia and fibula. Chronic renal changes were present in 48% of the dogs and included focal proliferative, exudative or crescentic glomerulonephritis (33%) or low-grade interstitial inflammatory changes (50%). The most frequently diagnosed skin lesions reported in this study were mild healed decubitus ulcers (33%), scars (33%) and stereotypic dermatitis (13%). These findings indicate that hounds are likely to be culled for reasons other than the presence of disease in most cases. In addition, this survey highlights different disease patterns in hounds than are typically observed in pet dogs. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

7 CFR 987.56 - Outlets for utility and cull dates.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

..., utility dates and cull dates may be disposed of without inspection, but only in feed, non-table syrup... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Outlets for utility and cull dates. 987.56 Section 987... DATES PRODUCED OR PACKED IN RIVERSIDE COUNTY, CALIFORNIA Order Regulating Handling Disposition of Other...

Culling from the actors' perspectives-Decision-making criteria for culling in Québec dairy herds enrolled in a veterinary preventive medicine program.

Science.gov (United States)

Haine, Denis; Cue, Roger; Sewalem, Asheber; Wade, Kevin; Lacroix, René; Lefebvre, Daniel; Rushton, Jonathan; Arsenault, Julie; Bouchard, Émile; Dubuc, Jocelyn

2017-12-01

The series of events leading to the decision to cull a cow is complex, involving both individual-level and herd-level factors. While the decision is guided by financial returns, it is also influenced by social and psychological factors. Research studies on the motivational and behavioural aspects of farmers' decision utility are sparse, and nonexistent regarding culling expectations and its decision process. Our goal was to identify shared criteria on culling decisions held by dairy producers and farm advisers, with the help of the Q-methodology. Forty-one dairy producers and 42 advisers (17 veterinarians, 13 feed mill advisers, and 12 dairy herd improvement (DHI) advisers) undertook a Q-sort with 40 statements that represented a range of views about cow and herd health, production performance, management issues, and material factors that might impact their culling decision-making process. The sorts were analysed by-person using factor analysis and oblimin rotation. A single view on culling could be identified among dairy producers that can be extended to dairy farm advisers, who showed two variations of the same well-structured, uni-dimensional decision-making process. Udder health, milk production performance, and milk quota management were the key criteria for the culling decision. Farm management parameters (debts, amortization, employees, milking parlour capacity, herd size) did not play any role in the decision process. Three key differences were, however, identified between producers and the two types of advisers. One group of advisers followed the recommendations from mathematical models, where pregnancy is a major determinant of a cow's value. They assessed the cow in a more abstract way than did the other participants, still taking into account udder health and milk production, but adding economic considerations, like the availability of financial incentives and an evaluation of the post-partum health of the cow. Dairy producers were also more concerned

Genetic Relationship between Culling, Milk Production, Fertility, and Health Traits in Norwegian Red Cows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holtsmark, M; Heringstad, B; Madsen, P

2008-01-01

First-lactation records on 836,452 daughters of 3,064 Norwegian Red sires were used to examine associations between culling in first lactation and 305-d protein yield, susceptibility to clinical mastitis, lactation mean somatic cell score (SCS), nonreturn rate within 56 d in heifers and primiparous......, including functional traits such as health and fertility, most of the genetic variation in culling will probably be covered by other traits in the breeding goal. However, in populations where data on health and fertility is scarce or not available at all, selection against early culling may be useful...... cows, and interval from calving to first insemination. A Bayesian multivariate threshold-linear model was used for analysis. Posterior mean of heritability of liability to culling of primiparous cows was 0.04. The posterior means of the genetic correlations between culling and the other traits were -0...

Short Communication: Use of culling Information in Genetic Evaluation of fertility, and Mastitis in Norwegian Red Cows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holtsmark, M; Heringstad, B; Madsen, P

2008-01-01

Breeding values for clinical mastitis, interval from calving to first insemination, and 56-d nonreturn rate for heifers and primiparous cows, were predicted using multivariate linear-threshold sire models, with or without including information on culling during the first lactation. Breeding values...... to phenotypic performance of second-crop daughters. The predictive ability of estimated breeding values for clinical mastitis and interval from calving to first insemination did not improve when including information on early culling, irrespective of the size of first-crop daughter groups. For 56-d nonreturn...... rates (heifer and primiparous cow), sire evaluations based on reduced size of daughter groups tended to predict performance of the future daughters slightly better when including data on early culling. Hence, for breeding programs with direct selection for health and fertility traits there is little...

A field study of culling and mortality in beef cows from western Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Waldner, Cheryl L; Kennedy, Richard I; Rosengren, Leigh; Clark, Edward G

2009-05-01

The objectives were to describe the pattern of losses through culling, sales of breeding stock, mortality, and disappearance, and to characterize the causes of mortality of cows and replacement heifers of breeding age from Western Canadian beef herds. Cows and replacement heifers from 203 herds were observed for a 1-year period starting June 1, 2001. Veterinarians examined dead animals on-farm using a standard postmortem protocol. The incidence of culling in cows and replacements heifers was 14.3 per 100 cow-years at risk, and the frequencies of sales for breeding stock, mortality, and cows reported missing per cow-years at risk were 4.0, 1.1, and 0.4, respectively. During the study, 355 animals died or were euthanized, 209 were examined postmortem, and the requested tissues were submitted for histopathologic examination from 184. A cause of death was determined for 70% (128/184) of the cows with complete gross postmortem and histopathologic examinations. Hardware disease (traumatic reticuloperitonitis), malignant neoplasia (cancer), calving-associated injury, rumen tympany (bloat), myopathy, and pneumonia accounted for 56% (72/128) of the animals where a cause of death was determined. Twenty-three other causes of death accounted for the remaining 44% (56/128). Factors relating to cow nutrition accounted for 25% of the deaths, emphasizing the importance of feeding management as a determinant of cow health in western Canada.

Culling decisions of dairy farmers during a 3-year Salmonella control study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Dohoo, I.

2011-01-01

Dublin which is the most prevalent and most persistent serotype in the Danish cattle population. A field study in 10 dairy herds with persistent Salmonella infections was carried out over three years to gain experience with control procedures including risk assessment, targeted control actions and test...... animals into risk groups. These risk groups and all individual ELISA-results were communicated to the farmers as colour-coded lists four to six times per year. Farmers were advised to manage the risk of Salmonella transmission from cattle with repeatedly high ELISA results (flagged as “red”) or cows...... if animals with red and yellow flags had higher probability of being slaughtered or sold before first calving than animals without any risk flags. For adult cows a semi-parametric proportional hazard survival model was used to test the effect of number of red and yellow flags on hazards of culling...

Culling and the Common Good: Re-evaluating Harms and Benefits under the One Health Paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Degeling, Chris; Lederman, Zohar; Rock, Melanie

2016-11-01

One Health (OH) is a novel paradigm that recognizes that human and non-human animal health is interlinked through our shared environment. Increasingly prominent in public health responses to zoonoses, OH differs from traditional approaches to animal-borne infectious risks, because it also aims to promote the health of animals and ecological systems. Despite the widespread adoption of OH, culling remains a key component of institutional responses to the risks of zoonoses. Using the threats posed by highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses to human and animal health, economic activity and food security as a case exemplar, we explore whether culling and other standard control measures for animal-borne infectious disease might be justified as part of OH approaches. Our central premise is that OH requires us to reformulate 'health' as universal good that is best shared across species boundaries such that human health and well-being are contingent upon identifying and meeting the relevant sets of human and non-human interests and shared dependencies. Our purpose is to further nascent discussions about the ethical dimensions of OH and begin to describe the principles around which a public health agenda that truly seeks to co-promote human and non-human health could potentially begin to be implemented.

9 CFR 147.17 - Laboratory procedure recommended for the bacteriological examination of cull chicks and poults...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... bacteriological examination of cull chicks from egg-type and meat-type chicken flocks and waterfowl, exhibition poultry, and game bird flocks and poults from turkey flocks for salmonella. (a) For cull chicks, from 25...

A new application of pelvis area data as culling tool to aid in the management of dystocia in heifers.

Science.gov (United States)

Holm, D E; Webb, E C; Thompson, P N

2014-05-01

Although fetomaternal disproportion is the major cause of dystocia in heifers, pelvis area (PA) is not recommended as a culling tool due to its relatively low importance and genetic correlation with calf birth weight (BWT), the most important factor associated with dystocia. The objective of this observational study of 484 limited bred yearling beef heifers was to compare the effects of different methods of adjustment of PA data for culling to select against dystocia. Multivariable analyses were used to determine predictors of PA, calf BWT, and dystocia. Hypothetical culling rates of 10 and 20% were then applied after ranking heifers by each of the following: unadjusted PA, PA adjusted to 365 d of age by subtracting 0.27 cm(2) per day of age difference between each heifer's age and 365 d (APA), PA:prebreeding BW ratio (PA:BW), PA adjusted to the median BW of the group using the regression coefficient of PA on BW within age group (BWPA), and PA similarly adjusted to the median lean BW (LBWPA). Dam parity, sire, prebreeding age, prebreeding BW, and prebreeding BCS were associated with PA whereas dam parity, sire, own BWT, PA, AI bull, and calf gender were associated with calf BWT (P dystocia (P dystocia. After hypothetical culling by PA, retained heifers were heavier and had a higher calving rate and calves tended to be heavier at birth compared to culled heifers, but dystocia rates were not different. Culling by APA resulted in similar effects, except that dystocia rate tended to be lower in retained heifers. Culling by PA:BW resulted in lower dystocia rate in retained than in culled heifers, but retained heifers had lower prebreeding BW than culls. Culling by BWPA and LBWPA resulted in lower proportions with dystocia and a tendency towards higher calving rates in the retained heifers, without affecting the prebreeding BW or calf BWT. It is concluded that pelvimetry is a useful culling tool to aid in the management of dystocia in yearling heifers and that adjustment

The Effect of Zingiber Officinale Rosc in The Diets of Performance in Culled Layer Ducks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tjokorda Gede Belawa Yadnya

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The experiment was design using a completely randomized block design (CRBD with four treatments. Treatment were diets without Zingiber officinale rosc (A, diets contain 2,91% Zingiber officinale Rosc  (B, diets contain 5,66%. Zingiber officinale Rosc (C, and diets contain 8,26% Zingiber officinale Rosc (D. Each treatment with five replicates, and each replicate consist four culled layer ducks. Variable observed were feed conversation ratio, carcass physical composition, and meat quality. It was concluded that present  Zingiber officinale Rosc in the diets could be improved of performance in culled layer ducks.   Keywords : Zingiber officinale Rosc, Culled layer ducks, and  meat qualit

Postpartum body condition score and results from the first test day milk as predictors of disease, fertility, yield, and culling in commercial dairy herds.

Science.gov (United States)

Heuer, C; Schukken, Y H; Dobbelaar, P

1999-02-01

The study used field data from a regular herd health service to investigate the relationships between body condition scores or first test day milk data and disease incidence, milk yield, fertility, and culling. Path model analysis with adjustment for time at risk was applied to delineate the time sequence of events. Milk fever occurred more often in fat cows, and endometritis occurred between calving and 20 d of lactation more often in thin cows. Fat cows were less likely to conceive at first service than were cows in normal condition. Fat body condition postpartum, higher first test day milk yield, and a fat to protein ratio of > 1.5 increased body condition loss. Fat or thin condition or condition loss was not related to other lactation diseases, fertility parameters, milk yield, or culling. First test day milk yield was 1.3 kg higher after milk fever and was 7.1 kg lower after displaced abomasum. Higher first test day milk yield directly increased the risk of ovarian cyst and lameness, increased 100-d milk yield, and reduced the risk of culling and indirectly decreased reproductive performance. Cows with a fat to protein ratio of > 1.5 had higher risks for ketosis, displaced abomasum, ovarian cyst, lameness, and mastitis. Those cows produced more milk but showed poor reproductive performance. Given this type of herd health data, we concluded that the first test day milk yield and the fat to protein ratio were more reliable indicators of disease, fertility, and milk yield than was body condition score or loss of body condition score.

A field study of culling and mortality in beef cows from western Canada

OpenAIRE

Waldner, Cheryl L.; Kennedy, Richard I.; Rosengren, Leigh; Clark, Edward G.

2009-01-01

The objectives were to describe the pattern of losses through culling, sales of breeding stock, mortality, and disappearance, and to characterize the causes of mortality of cows and replacement heifers of breeding age from Western Canadian beef herds. Cows and replacement heifers from 203 herds were observed for a 1-year period starting June 1, 2001. Veterinarians examined dead animals on-farm using a standard postmortem protocol. The incidence of culling in cows and replacements heifers was ...

Cull sow knife-separable lean content evaluation at harvest and lean mass content prediction equation development.

Science.gov (United States)

Abell, Caitlyn E; Stalder, Kenneth J; Hendricks, Haven B; Fitzgerald, Robert F

2012-07-01

The objectives of this study were to develop a prediction equation for carcass knife-separable lean within and across USDA cull sow market weight classes (MWC) and to determine carcass and individual primal cut knife separable lean content from cull sows. There were significant percent lean and fat differences in the primal cuts across USDA MWC. The two lighter USDA MWC had a greater percent carcass lean and lower percent fat compared to the two heavier MWC. In general, hot carcass weight explained the majority of carcass lean variation. Additionally, backfat was a significant variation source when predicting cull sow carcass lean. The findings support using a single lean prediction equation across MWC to assist processors when making cull sow purchasing decisions and determine the mix of animals from various USDA MWC that will meet their needs when making pork products with defined lean:fat content. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Zilpaterol improves feeding performance and fabrication yield of concentrate-finished cull cows.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, T E; Gasch, C A; Hutcheson, J P; Hodgen, J M

2011-07-01

The objective of this study was to quantify the effects of zilpaterol hydrochloride (ZH) on feeding performance and fabrication yield of concentrate-finished cull cows. Three hundred twenty commercial cull cows (2 to 10 yr old) were obtained from ranches in Missouri and South Dakota and assigned to 1 of 2 treatments: 1) a control diet containing no ZH and 2) a diet that contained ZH. Cows were fed for 75, 88, or 110 d, and all received the control ration until ZH treatments were initiated. Twenty-four days before slaughter, ZH feeding began for the designated treatment pens; cows were fed ZH [8.33 mg/kg (100% DM basis)] for 20 d with a 4-d withdrawal period before slaughter. No differences (P>0.05) were detected between the 2 treatment groups for initial BW or DMI. Final BW (640.5 vs. 619.1 kg), ADG for the last 24 d (2.75 vs. 2.17 kg), and G:F for the last 24 d (0.160 vs. 0.126) were greater (P 0.05) were found for lean or skeletal maturity score, fat thickness, LM area, HCW, or calculated yield grade among the 2 treatment groups. Feeding ZH increased (P0.07) were found for the remaining fabrication yield attributes. The ZH-treated cows had greater (Pfeeding of ZH to concentrate-finished cull cows enhances production efficiencies and can add new value to the cull cow market. © 2011 American Society of Animal Science. All rights reserved.

Cull Vegetables As Substitute For Conventional Forages In Goats Diet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

AlSultan, S.I

2007-01-01

Comparison of certain responses of kids and nannies to a cull-vegetable diet as a substitute to the conventional diet (Barseem and Rhodes) was investigated. Kids after eight weeks of the experiment showed a significant increase in weight on all the three types of diet with more pronounced growth in the conventional diet containing Barseem and concentrate. On the other hand nannies exposed to the three types of diet following eight weeks of feeding displayed no significant increase in body weight as compared with the initial weight within each group or among the different groups. Similarly milk quality remained the same with no observable influence induced by the type of diet except that there was a slight increase in fat content of the cull -vegetable diet which require further investigation. (author)

A proposal on culling & filtering a coxeter group for 4D, N=1 spacetime SUSY representations: revised

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gates, D.E.A. [Jefferson Physical Laboratory, Harvard University,17 Oxford St., Cambridge, MA, 02138 (United States); Gates, James S. Jr. [Center for String and Particle Theory, Dept. of Physics, University of Maryland, 4150 Campus Dr., College Park, MD, 20472 (United States); Department of Physics and Astronomy, Dartmouth College,6127 College St., Hanover, NH, 03755 (United States); Stiffler, Kory [Department of Chemistry, Physics, and Astronomy, Indiana University Northwest, 3400 Broadway, Gary, Indiana, 46408 (United States)

2016-08-10

We present an expanded and detailed discussion of the mathematical tools required to cull and filter representations of the Coxeter Group BC{sub 4} into providing bases for the construction of minimal off-shell representations of the 4D, N = 1 spacetime supersymmetry algebra.

Factors determining the carcass value of culled dairy cows

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arendonk, van J.A.M.; Stokvisch, P.E.; Korver, S.; Oldenbroek, J.K.

1984-01-01

Data from 763 cows culled during the period September 1973–May 1982 on two experimental farms have been analysed. The carcass value of each individual cow was adjusted for seasonal fluctuations in price per kilogram carcass weight. The grade was assessed through in vivo scoring by experts of a

Behavior of feral horses in response to culling and GnRH immunocontraception

Science.gov (United States)

Ransom, Jason I.; Powers, Jenny G.; Garbe, Heidi M.; Oehler, Michael W.; Nett, Terry M.; Baker, Dan L.

2014-01-01

Wildlife management actions can alter fundamental behaviors of individuals and groups,which may directly impact their life history parameters in unforeseen ways. This is especially true for highly social animals because changes in one individual’s behavior can cascade throughout its social network. When resources to support populations of social animals are limited and populations become locally overabundant, managers are faced with the daunting challenge of decreasing population size without disrupting core behavioral processes. Increasingly, managers are turning to fertility control technologies to supplement culling in efforts to suppress population growth, but little is quantitatively known about how either of these management tools affects behavior. Gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) is a small neuropeptide that performs an obligatory role in mammalian reproduction and has been formulated into the immunocontraceptive GonaCon-BTM. We investigated the influences of this vaccine on behavior of feral horses (Equus caballus) at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA, for a year preceding and a year following nonlethal culling and GnRH-vaccine treatment. We observed horses during the breeding season and found only minimal differences in time budget behaviors of free-ranging female feral horses treated with GnRH and those treated with saline. The differences observed were consistent with the metabolic demands of pregnancy and lactation. We observed similar social behaviors between treatment groups, reflecting limited reproductive behavior among control females due to high rates of pregnancy and suppressed reproductive behavior among treated females due to GnRH-inhibited ovarian activity. In the treatment year, band stallion age was the only supported factor influencing herding behavior (P < 0.001), harem-tending behavior (P < 0.001), and agonistic behavior (P = 0.02). There was no difference between the mean body condition of control females (4

The association of culling and death rate within 30 days after calving with productivity or reproductive performance in dairy herds in Fukuoka, Southern Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Goto, Akira; Nakada, Ken; Katamoto, Hiromu

2016-05-03

The incidence of peripartum disorders in dairy herds negatively influences productivity and reproductive performance. Concrete data from local areas are helpful for explaining the importance of peripartum management to dairy farmers. This study was conducted to clarify the association of culling and death rate within 30 days after calving with productivity or reproductive performance in 179 dairy herds in Fukuoka, Southern Japan. A database was compiled from the records of the Livestock Improvement Association of Japan, the Dairy Cooperative Association and the Federation of Agricultural Mutual Relief Association. In this study, we created a comprehensive database of dairy farm production data for epidemiological analysis and used a general linear mixed model to analyze the association of culling and death rate within 30 days after calving with milk production or reproductive performance. The database can be used to describe, analyze and predict the risk of production. A cross-sectional analysis with contrasts was applied to investigate the association of cows served by AI/all cows, pregnant cows/cows served by AI, days open, milk yield and somatic cell counts with culling and death rate within 30 days after calving. The days open value significantly increased with increasing rate of culling and death within 30 days after calving (P for trend <0.001). No significant differences were found for the other comparisons. Our data suggest that proper feeding and management in the dry period may lead to improved postpartum reproductive performance in this dairy cow cohort.

Comparative behaviour of yeast strains for ethanolic fermentation of culled apple juice.

Science.gov (United States)

Modi, D R; Garg, S K; Johri, B N

1998-07-01

The culled apple juice contained (% w/v): nitrogen, 0.036; total sugars, 11.6 and was of pH 3.9. Saccharomyces cerevisiae NCIM 3284, Pichia kluyeri and Candida krusei produced more ethanol from culled apple juice at its optimum initial pH 4.5, whereas S. cerevisiae NCIM 3316 did so at pH 5.0. An increase in sugar concentration of apple juice from natural 11.6% to 20% exhibited enhanced ethanol production and improved fermentation efficiency of both the S. cerevisiae strains, whereas P. kluyveri and C. krusei produced high ethanol at 11.6% and 16.0% sugar levels, respectively. Urea was stimulatory for ethanol production as well as fermentation efficiency of the yeast strains under study.

Occlusion culling and calculation for a computer generated hologram using spatial frequency index method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Kai; Yan, Xingpeng; Jiang, Xiaoyu; Huang, Yingqing

2015-01-01

A spatial frequency index method is proposed to cull occlusion and generate a hologram. Object points with the same spatial frequency are put into a set for their mutual occlusion. The hidden surfaces of the three-dimensional (3D) scene are quickly removed through culling the object points that are furthest from the hologram plane in the set. The phases of plane wave, which are only interrelated with the spatial frequencies, are precomputed and stored in a table. According to the spatial frequency of the object points, the phases of plane wave for generating fringes are obtained directly from the table. Three 3D scenes are chosen to verify the spatial frequency index method. Both numerical simulation and optical reconstruction are performed. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can cull the hidden surfaces of the 3D scene correctly. The occlusion effect of the 3D scene can be well reproduced. The computational speed is better than that obtained using conventional methods but is still time-consuming. (paper)

Moral Convictions and Culling Animals: A Survey in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cohen, N.E.; Brom, F.W.A.; Stassen, E.N.

2012-01-01

In this paper the results are presented of a national survey in the Netherlands. The aim was to identify and describe the convictions about animals that people have in Dutch society and the role of these in judgments on the culling of healthy animals during an animal disease epidemic. A total of

What doesn't kill you makes you wary? Effect of repeated culling on the behaviour of an invasive predator.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabelle M Côté

Full Text Available As a result of being hunted, animals often alter their behaviour in ways that make future encounters with predators less likely. When hunting is carried out for conservation, for example to control invasive species, these behavioural changes can inadvertently impede the success of future efforts. We examined the effects of repeated culling by spearing on the behaviour of invasive predatory lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles on Bahamian coral reef patches. We compared the extent of concealment and activity levels of lionfish at dawn and midday on 16 coral reef patches off Eleuthera, The Bahamas. Eight of the patches had been subjected to regular daytime removals of lionfish by spearing for two years. We also estimated the distance at which lionfish became alert to slowly approaching divers on culled and unculled reef patches. Lionfish on culled reefs were less active and hid deeper within the reef during the day than lionfish on patches where no culling had occurred. There were no differences at dawn when removals do not take place. Lionfish on culled reefs also adopted an alert posture at a greater distance from divers than lionfish on unculled reefs. More crepuscular activity likely leads to greater encounter rates by lionfish with more native fish species because the abundance of reef fish outside of shelters typically peaks at dawn and dusk. Hiding deeper within the reef could also make remaining lionfish less likely to be encountered and more difficult to catch by spearfishers during culling efforts. Shifts in the behaviour of hunted invasive animals might be common and they have implications both for the impact of invasive species and for the design and success of invasive control programs.

What doesn't kill you makes you wary? Effect of repeated culling on the behaviour of an invasive predator.

Science.gov (United States)

Côté, Isabelle M; Darling, Emily S; Malpica-Cruz, Luis; Smith, Nicola S; Green, Stephanie J; Curtis-Quick, Jocelyn; Layman, Craig

2014-01-01

As a result of being hunted, animals often alter their behaviour in ways that make future encounters with predators less likely. When hunting is carried out for conservation, for example to control invasive species, these behavioural changes can inadvertently impede the success of future efforts. We examined the effects of repeated culling by spearing on the behaviour of invasive predatory lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) on Bahamian coral reef patches. We compared the extent of concealment and activity levels of lionfish at dawn and midday on 16 coral reef patches off Eleuthera, The Bahamas. Eight of the patches had been subjected to regular daytime removals of lionfish by spearing for two years. We also estimated the distance at which lionfish became alert to slowly approaching divers on culled and unculled reef patches. Lionfish on culled reefs were less active and hid deeper within the reef during the day than lionfish on patches where no culling had occurred. There were no differences at dawn when removals do not take place. Lionfish on culled reefs also adopted an alert posture at a greater distance from divers than lionfish on unculled reefs. More crepuscular activity likely leads to greater encounter rates by lionfish with more native fish species because the abundance of reef fish outside of shelters typically peaks at dawn and dusk. Hiding deeper within the reef could also make remaining lionfish less likely to be encountered and more difficult to catch by spearfishers during culling efforts. Shifts in the behaviour of hunted invasive animals might be common and they have implications both for the impact of invasive species and for the design and success of invasive control programs.

Farmer attitudes to vaccination and culling of badgers in controlling bovine tuberculosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, M; Lobley, M; Winter, M

2013-07-13

Controversy persists in England, Wales and Northern Ireland concerning methods of controlling the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) between badgers and cattle. The National Trust, a major land-owning heritage organisation, in 2011, began a programme of vaccinating badgers against bTB on its Killerton Estate in Devon. Most of the estate is farmed by 18 tenant farmers, who thus have a strong interest in the Trust's approach, particularly as all have felt the effects of the disease. This article reports on a study of the attitudes to vaccination of badgers and to the alternative of a culling programme, using face-to-face interviews with 14 of the tenants. The results indicated first that the views of the respondents were more nuanced than the contemporary public debate about badger control would suggest. Secondly, the attitude of the interviewees to vaccination of badgers against bTB was generally one of resigned acceptance. Thirdly, most respondents would prefer a combination of an effective vaccination programme with an effective culling programme, the latter reducing population of density sufficiently (and preferably targeting the badgers most likely to be diseased) for vaccination to have a reasonable chance of success. While based on a small sample, these results will contribute to the vigorous debate concerning contrasting policy approaches to bTB control in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Associations between strain, herd size, age at first calving, culling reason and lifetime performance characteristics in Holstein-Friesian cows.

Science.gov (United States)

Adamczyk, K; Makulska, J; Jagusiak, W; Węglarz, A

2017-02-01

Cow longevity and lifetime performance traits are good indicators of breeding effectiveness and animal welfare. They are also interrelated with the economics of dairy herd. Unfortunately, a high milk yield is often associated with deteriorated cow health and fertility and, consequently, with an increased culling rate. This situation, observed also in the Polish population of Holstein-Friesian cattle, inspired us to undertake a study on the associations between some factors and lifetime performance characteristics. The data set consisted of the records on 135 496 cows, including 131 526 of the Black and White strain (BW), and 3970 of the Red and White strain (RW) covered by performance recording and culled in 2012. It was found that cows of the BW strain and those from the largest herds (>100 cows) reached higher lifetime and mean daily energy-corrected milk (ECM) yields than cows of the RW strain and those from smaller herds culled at a similar age. Cows youngest at first calving (reasons for cow culling. Cow longevity and lifetime productivity were considerably affected by the interactions between the studied factors.

Culling prey promotes predator recovery - Alternative states in a whole-lake experiment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Persson, L.; Amundsen, P.A.; de Roos, A.M.; Klemetsen, A.; Knudsen, R.; Primicerio, R.

2007-01-01

Many top-predator fish stocks in both freshwater and marine systems have collapsed as a result of overharvesting. Consequently, some of these communities have shifted into seemingly irreversible new states. We showed, for predators feeding on prey that exhibit food-dependent growth, that culling of

[Mass culling in the context of animal disease outbreaks--veterinarians caught between ethical issues and control policies].

Science.gov (United States)

Hartnack, Sonja; Doherr, Marcus G; Grimm, Herwig; Kunzmann, Peter

2009-04-01

In recent years controversial discussions arose during major animal disease outbreaks in the EU about the ethical soundness of mass culling. In contrast to numerous publications about ethical issues and laboratory animals/animal experiments, literature concerning ethical deliberations in the case of mass culling as a means of outbreak control remain scarce. Veterinarians in charge of decision about and implementation of mass culling actions find themselves in an area of conflict in between the officially required animal disease control policy and a public that is increasingly critical. Those veterinarians are faced with the challenge to defend the relevant decisions against all stakeholders and also themselves. In this context an interdisciplinary workshop was initiated in Switzerland in October 2007 with ethicians and (official) veterinarians from Germany, Switzerland and Austria. With the aim to identify ethical components of animal disease control for official veterinarians, talks and moderated group discussions took place. This article summarizes selected discussion points and conclusions.

A small quantity of sodium arsenite will kill large cull hardwoods

Science.gov (United States)

Francis M. Rushmore

1956-01-01

Although it is well known that sodium arsenite is an effective silvicide, forestry literature contains little information about the minimum quantities of this chemical that are required to kill large cull trees. Such information would be of value because if small quantities of a chemical will produce satisfactory results, small holes or frills in the tree will hold it...

Association between isolation of Staphylococcus aureus one week after calving and milk yield, somatic cell count, clinical mastitis, and culling through the remaining lactation.

Science.gov (United States)

Whist, Anne Cathrine; Osterås, Olav; Sølverød, Liv

2009-02-01

Cows with isolation of Staphylococcus aureus approximately 1 week after calving and milk yield, somatic cell count (SCC), clinical mastitis (CM), and culling risk through the remaining lactation were assessed in 178 Norwegian dairy herds. Mixed models with repeated measures were used to compare milk yield and SCC, and survival analyses were used to estimate the hazard ratio for CM and culling. On average, cows with an isolate of Staph. aureus had a significantly higher SCC than culture-negative cows. If no post-milking teat disinfection (PMTD) was used, the mean values of SCC were 42,000, 61,000, 68,000 and 77,000 cells/ml for cows with no Staph. aureus isolate, with Staph. aureus isolated in 1 quarter, in 2 quarters and more than 2 quarters respectively. If iodine PMTD was used, SCC means were 36,000; 63,000; 70,000 and 122,000, respectively. Primiparous cows testing positive for Staph. aureus had the same milk yield curve as culture-negative cows, except for those with Staph. aureus isolated in more than 2 quarters. They produced 229 kg less during a 305-d lactation. Multiparous cows with isolation of Staph. aureus in at least 1 quarter produced 94-161 kg less milk in 2nd and >3rd parity, respectively, and those with isolation in more than 2 quarters produced 303-390 kg less than multiparous culture-negative animals during a 305-d lactation. Compared with culture-negative cows, the hazard ratio for CM and culling in cows with isolation of Staph. aureus in at least 1 quarter was 2.0 (1.6-2.4) and 1.7 (1.5-1.9), respectively. There was a decrease in the SCC and in the CM risk in culture-negative cows where iodine PMTD had been used, indicating that iodine PMTD has a preventive effect on already healthy cows. For cows testing positive for Staph. aureus in more than 2 quarters at calving, iodine PMTD had a negative effect on the CM risk and on the SCC through the remaining lactation.

An adaptive occlusion culling algorithm for use in large ves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bormann, Karsten

2000-01-01

The Hierarchical Occlusion Map algorithm is combined with Frustum Slicing to give a simpler occlusion-culling algorithm that more adequately caters to large, open VEs. The algorithm adapts to the level of visual congestion and is well suited for use with large, complex models with long mean free ...... line of sight ('the great outdoors'), models for which it is not feasible to construct, or search, a database of occluders to be rendered each frame....

Effects of hot boning and moisture enhancement on the eating quality of cull cow beef.

Science.gov (United States)

Pivotto, L M; Campbell, C P; Swanson, K; Mandell, I B

2014-01-01

The effects of chilling method and moisture enhancement were examined for improving eating quality of semimembranosus (SM) and longissimus lumborum (LL) from 62 cull beef cows. Chilling method included hot boning muscles after 45 to 60 min postmortem or conventional chilling for 24 h. Moisture enhancement included 1) a non-injected control (CONT) or injection processing (10% of product weight) using 2) Sodium Tripolyphosphate/salt (Na/STP), 3) Sodium Citrate (NaCIT), 4) Calcium Ascorbate (CaASC), or 5) Citrus Juices (CITRUS). Chilling method by moisture enhancement treatment interactions (Pboned vs. conventionally chilled product (SM and LL) for CaASC vs. other moisture enhancement treatments. Chilling method by moisture enhancement treatment interactions (Pboned LL using CaASC vs. Na/STP. Moisture enhancement can improve tenderness of cull cow beef depending on combinations of chilling method and moisture enhancement treatments used. © 2013.

Premature culling of production animals; ethical questions related to killing animals in food production

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bruijnis, M.R.N.; Meijboom, F.L.B.; Stassen, E.N.

2016-01-01

The aim of this chapter is to analyse the importance of longevity in relation to the welfare of production animals. I hypothesize that the concept of longevity helps to support the moral intuition that premature culling of animals is a moral wrong. The analysis shows that the interpretation of the

Distribution of Penicillin G Residues in Culled Dairy Cow Muscles: Implications for Residue Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration sets tolerances for veterinary drug residues in muscle, but does not specify which type of muscle should be analyzed. In order to determine if antibiotic residue levels are dependent on muscle type, 7 culled dairy cows were dosed with Penicillin G (Pen G) from ...

Culling dogs in scenarios of imperfect control: realistic impact on the prevalence of canine visceral leishmaniasis.

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Danielle N C C Costa

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis belongs to the list of neglected tropical diseases and is considered a public health problem worldwide. Spatial correlation between the occurrence of the disease in humans and high rates of canine infection suggests that in the presence of the vector, canine visceral leishmaniasis is the key factor for triggering transmission to humans. Despite the control strategies implemented, such as the sacrifice of infected dogs being put down, the incidence of American visceral leishmaniasis remains high in many Latin American countries. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Mathematical models were developed to describe the transmission dynamics of canine leishmaniasis and its control by culling. Using these models, imperfect control scenarios were implemented to verify the possible factors which alter the effectiveness of controlling this disease in practice. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A long-term continuous program targeting both asymptomatic and symptomatic dogs should be effective in controlling canine leishmaniasis in areas of low to moderate transmission (R0 up to 1.4. However, the indiscriminate sacrifice of asymptomatic dogs with positive diagnosis may jeopardize the effectiveness of the control program, if tests with low specificity are used, increasing the chance of generating outrage in the population, and leading to lower adherence to the program. Therefore, culling must be planned accurately and implemented responsibly and never as a mechanical measure in large scale. In areas with higher transmission, culling alone is not an effective control strategy.

What happens to living cull trees left after heavy cutting in mixed hardwood stands?

Science.gov (United States)

George R., Jr. Trimble; Henry Clay Smith

1963-01-01

In the Appalachian Mountains, the logging operator usually cuts only those trees that he thinks will yield a profit, and leaves the trees that appear to be unprofitable. Generally these unprofitable trees are either below merchantable size or are culls-trees of merchantable size that contain too little sound material to justify harvesting costs.

Invited review: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis of mortality and culling in dairy cattle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Compton, C. W. R.; Heuer, C.; Thomsen, Peter T.

2017-01-01

Dairy industries and individual farmers are concerned about mortality and culling of dairy animals. This is because the timing and fates of animals that exit dairy farms have important animal welfare and economic consequences that reflect the conditions under which they are farmed and the efficie...

Consequences of two or four months of finishing feeding of culled dry dairy cows on carcass characteristics and technological and sensory meat quality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vestergaard, Mogens; Bligaard, H. B.; Bredahl, L.

2007-01-01

Finishing feeding was evaluated as a way to improve carcass-, meat- and eating quality of culled dairy cows. In total, 125 Danish Friesian cows were purchased from commercial dairy herds. Cows were culled for various typical reasons at different stages of lactation, were non-pregnant and had milk.......16§0.05 kg/d in the finishing period. Compared with C-cows, F2- and F4-cows had 56 and 97 kg higher carcass weight, 10% and 21% larger Longissimus muscle area, and 14 and 70% more backfat, respectively, at time of slaughter. EUROP conformation scores were 2.2 (C), 3.4 (F2) and 4.4 (F4) and EUROP fat scores...... with 1st parity cows, older cows ate 12% more feed, had similar daily gain, were heavier, and had higher BCS and fatness including IMF. The results show that it is possible to dry-off and finish-feed culled dairy cows resulting in larger muscles, increased fatness, improved overall carcass quality...

Effect of feeding period for dry cull cows on carcass quality, meat quality, and consumer reactions to loin steaks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Niels T.; Vestergaard, Mogens; Bredahl, Lone

2003-01-01

A major part of the beef marketed for Danish retail consumers originates from dairy cows slaughtered when the are culled from milk production. As these cows are often slaughtered at varios stages of lactation and with variable degrees of fatness the meat is often criticised for having a considera......A major part of the beef marketed for Danish retail consumers originates from dairy cows slaughtered when the are culled from milk production. As these cows are often slaughtered at varios stages of lactation and with variable degrees of fatness the meat is often criticised for having...... thoroughly. The present study comprise two trials. The results of both the first and second trail, including 62 cows in 2002, are reported here....

78 FR 35743 - Irish Potatoes Grown in Colorado; Modification of the General Cull and Handling Regulation for...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-14

... IR] Irish Potatoes Grown in Colorado; Modification of the General Cull and Handling Regulation for.... SUMMARY: This interim rule modifies the size requirements for potatoes handled under the Colorado potato marketing order, Area No. 2 (order). The order regulates the handling of Irish potatoes grown in Colorado...

Level and period of realimentation to assess improvement in body condition and carcass quality in cull ewes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhatt, Randhir Singh; Soren, Nira Manik; Sahoo, Artabandhu; Karim, Shaikh Abdul

2013-01-01

Improvement in body condition was assessed in 40 cull ewes (>6 years), equally distributed in two groups and realimented with ad libitum roughage (gram straw) and two levels of concentrate feeding, i.e., 2.5 % (T(1)) of live weight (LW) and ad libitum (T(2)). Five representative animals from an initial 45 were slaughtered at the initiation of the study (0 day) and five animals from each treatment at 44, 67, and 90 days of experiment for carcass attributes. Improvement in body condition score (BCS), nutrient utilization, feed efficiency, and carcass traits were assessed at 44, 67, and 90 days. Metabolism trial of 6-day collection of feed, feces, and urine samples was conducted on five representative ewes from each group after 60 days of feeding. The level of concentrate feeding on LW gain and BCS was significant, and the duration of realimentation showed a linear improvement (P body condition of cull ewes for quality mutton production.

Relationships between mastitis and functional longevity in Danish Black and White dairy cattle estimated using survival analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Neerhof, H J; Madsen, P; Ducrocq, V P; Vollema, A R; Jensen, J; Korsgaard, I R

2000-05-01

The relationship between mastitis and functional longevity was assessed with survival analysis on data of Danish Black and White dairy cows. Different methods of including the effect of mastitis treatment on the culling decision by a farmer in the model were compared. The model in which mastitis treatment was assumed to have an effect on functional longevity until the end of the lactation had the highest likelihood, and the model in which mastitis treatment had an effect for only a short period had the lowest likelihood. A cow with mastitis had 1.69 times greater risk of being culled than did a healthy herdmate with all other effects being the same. A model without mastitis treatment was used to predict transmitting abilities of bulls for risk of being culled, based on longevity records of their daughters, and was expressed in terms of risk of being culled. The correlation between the risk of being culled and the national evaluations of the bulls for mastitis resistance was approximately -0.4, indicating that resistance against mastitis was genetically correlated with a lower risk of being culled and, thus, a longer functional length of productive life.

Qualitative Evaluation of the Five-Year 'Red Collar' Campaign to End Inhumane Culling of Dogs as a Method of Rabies Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Hiby, Elly; Tasker, Lou

2018-02-06

Dog-mediated human rabies can be eliminated through mass dog vaccination. Despite leading authorities in human and animal health uniting to advance effective and humane rabies control, some governments resort to lethal methods, which are unethical, often inhumane and ineffective. To end the inhumane culling of dogs in response to rabies, World Animal Protection launched 'Red Collar'; a five-year campaign (2011-2016) that worked with governments to promote the implementation of mass dog vaccination for rabies control. We present the findings from a qualitative evaluation of 'Red Collar', conducted both regionally and with national focus on Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Zanzibar, Tanzania. Through semi-structured interviews and written contributions from stakeholders ( n = 54), we compared perceptions of changes with stated campaign goals to capture recommendations for future work. The campaign successfully generated momentum for implementation of mass dog vaccination by targeted governments. Lessons learned were established: Value of a consistent animal welfare 'voice'; the need to explore the motivations behind culling; the need to capacity build; time required for the 'ripple effect' to inspire humane control in other countries; importance of monitoring and evaluation of indicators; time and effort required for exit strategies and prior preparation for a robust response to culling.

78 FR 70191 - Irish Potatoes Grown in Colorado; Modification of the General Cull and Handling Regulation for...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-25

...-FV-13-0001; FV13-948-1 FIR] Irish Potatoes Grown in Colorado; Modification of the General Cull and..., without change, an interim rule that modified the size requirements for potatoes handled under the Colorado potato marketing order, Area No. 2 (order). The order regulates the handling of Irish potatoes...

The interrelationships between clinical signs and their effect on involuntary culling among pregnant sows in group-housing systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Tina Birk; Bonde, Marianne Kjær; Kongsted, Anne Grete

2010-01-01

Sows suffering from clinical signs of disease (e.g. lameness, wounds and shoulder ulcers) are often involuntarily culled, affecting the farmer's economy and the welfare of the animals. In order to investigate the interrelationships between clinical signs of individual pregnant group-housed sows, we...

Re-alimentation strategy to manoeuvre body condition and carcass characteristics in cull ewes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhatt, R S; Soren, N M; Sahoo, A; Karim, S A

2012-01-01

Improvement in body condition and carcass traits through nutritional intervention was studied in cull ewes. Sixty-eight adult non-productive Malpura ewes (average body weight 26.7 ± 0.33 kg) were randomly divided into four equal groups: G0 maintained on free grazing for 8 h on protected natural rangeland with ad libitum guar (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba) straw (GS) after grazing; G1, G2 and G3 fed with supplemental concentrate at the rate of 250 g, 2.5% of live weight (LW) and ad libitum, respectively. The experiment was continued for 90 days and daily feed intake, weekly LW and body condition score (BCS) were recorded. Intake and digestibility of nutrients were assessed by indicator method. Rumen fermentation attributes and blood biochemical profile were studied to assess the dietary effects and animals were slaughtered at the end of experiment for evaluation of carcass characteristics. Higher dry matter (DM) intake and improvement in plane of nutrition was observed in G2 and G3 with a higher LW gain (LWG) and improvement in BCS than in G0. The digestibility of DM, organic matter, CP, ADF and cellulose was higher (P alimentation of cull ewes with challenged feeding of concentrate at 2.5% of LW on a basal roughage diet for a period of 3 months may have promise for better economic return to the farmers with possibly meeting quality mutton for human consumption.

Epidemiology of Salmonella sp. in California cull dairy cattle: prevalence of fecal shedding and diagnostic accuracy of pooled enriched broth culture of fecal samples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omran A. Abu Aboud

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Background The primary objective of this cross-sectional study was to estimate the crude, seasonal and cull-reason stratified prevalence of Salmonella fecal shedding in cull dairy cattle on seven California dairies. A secondary objective was to estimate and compare the relative sensitivity (Se and specificity (Sp for pools of 5 and 10 enriched broth cultures of fecal samples for Salmonella sp. detection. Methods Seven dairy farms located in the San Joaquin Valley of California were identified and enrolled in the study as a convenience sample. Cull cows were identified for fecal sampling once during each season between 2014 and 2015, specifically during spring, summer, fall, and winter, and 10 cows were randomly selected for fecal sampling at the day of their sale. In addition, study personnel completed a survey based on responses of the herd manager to questions related to the previous four month’s herd management. Fecal samples were frozen until testing for Salmonella. After overnight enrichment in liquid broth, pools of enrichment broth (EBP were created for 5 and 10 samples. All individual and pooled broths were cultured on selective media with putative Salmonella colonies confirmed by biochemical testing before being serogrouped and serotyped. Results A total of 249 cull cows were enrolled into the study and their fecal samples tested for Salmonella. The survey-weighted period prevalence of fecal shedding of all Salmonella sp. in the cull cow samples across all study herds and the entire study period was 3.42% (N = 249; SE 1.07. The within herd prevalence of Salmonella shed in feces did not differ over the four study seasons (P = 0.074. The Se of culture of EBP of five samples was 62.5% (SE = 17.12, which was not statistically different from the Se of culture of EBP of 10 (37.5%, SE = 17.12, P = 0.48. The Sp of culture of EBP of five samples was 95.24% (SE = 3.29 and for pools of 10 samples was 100.00% (SE = 0. There was no statistical

Economic comparison of common treatment protocols and J5 vaccination for clinical mastitis in dairy herds using optimized culling decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kessels, J A; Cha, E; Johnson, S K; Welcome, F L; Kristensen, A R; Gröhn, Y T

2016-05-01

This study used an existing dynamic optimization model to compare costs of common treatment protocols and J5 vaccination for clinical mastitis in US dairy herds. Clinical mastitis is an infection of the mammary gland causing major economic losses in dairy herds due to reduced milk production, reduced conception, and increased risk of mortality and culling for infected cows. Treatment protocols were developed to reflect common practices in dairy herds. These included targeted therapy following pathogen identification, and therapy without pathogen identification using a broad-spectrum antimicrobial or treating with the cheapest treatment option. The cost-benefit of J5 vaccination was also estimated. Effects of treatment were accounted for as changes in treatment costs, milk loss due to mastitis, milk discarded due to treatment, and mortality. Following ineffective treatments, secondary decisions included extending the current treatment, alternative treatment, discontinuing treatment, and pathogen identification followed by recommended treatment. Average net returns for treatment protocols and vaccination were generated using an existing dynamic programming model. This model incorporates cow and pathogen characteristics to optimize management decisions to treat, inseminate, or cull cows. Of the treatment protocols where 100% of cows received recommended treatment, pathogen-specific identification followed by recommended therapy yielded the highest average net returns per cow per year. Out of all treatment scenarios, the highest net returns were achieved with selecting the cheapest treatment option and discontinuing treatment, or alternate treatment with a similar spectrum therapy; however, this may not account for the full consequences of giving nonrecommended therapies to cows with clinical mastitis. Vaccination increased average net returns in all scenarios. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Qualitative Evaluation of the Five-Year ‘Red Collar’ Campaign to End Inhumane Culling of Dogs as a Method of Rabies Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elly Hiby

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Dog-mediated human rabies can be eliminated through mass dog vaccination. Despite leading authorities in human and animal health uniting to advance effective and humane rabies control, some governments resort to lethal methods, which are unethical, often inhumane and ineffective. To end the inhumane culling of dogs in response to rabies, World Animal Protection launched ‘Red Collar’; a five-year campaign (2011–2016 that worked with governments to promote the implementation of mass dog vaccination for rabies control. We present the findings from a qualitative evaluation of ‘Red Collar’, conducted both regionally and with national focus on Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Zanzibar, Tanzania. Through semi-structured interviews and written contributions from stakeholders (n = 54, we compared perceptions of changes with stated campaign goals to capture recommendations for future work. The campaign successfully generated momentum for implementation of mass dog vaccination by targeted governments. Lessons learned were established: Value of a consistent animal welfare ‘voice’; the need to explore the motivations behind culling; the need to capacity build; time required for the ‘ripple effect’ to inspire humane control in other countries; importance of monitoring and evaluation of indicators; time and effort required for exit strategies and prior preparation for a robust response to culling.

Computer-generated holograms by multiple wavefront recording plane method with occlusion culling.

Science.gov (United States)

Symeonidou, Athanasia; Blinder, David; Munteanu, Adrian; Schelkens, Peter

2015-08-24

We propose a novel fast method for full parallax computer-generated holograms with occlusion processing, suitable for volumetric data such as point clouds. A novel light wave propagation strategy relying on the sequential use of the wavefront recording plane method is proposed, which employs look-up tables in order to reduce the computational complexity in the calculation of the fields. Also, a novel technique for occlusion culling with little additional computation cost is introduced. Additionally, the method adheres a Gaussian distribution to the individual points in order to improve visual quality. Performance tests show that for a full-parallax high-definition CGH a speedup factor of more than 2,500 compared to the ray-tracing method can be achieved without hardware acceleration.

Low prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in cull sows and pork.

Science.gov (United States)

Wesley, Irene V; Larsen, Steven; Hurd, H Scott; McKean, James D; Griffith, Ronald; Rivera, Fernando; Nannapaneni, Ramakrishna; Cox, Mandy; Johnson, Michael; Wagner, Dean; de Martino, Mary

2008-03-01

The goal of this study was to determine the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in sows slaughtered at a single Midwestern plant on two occasions (trial 1, n = 179 sows; trial 2, n = 160 sows). Fecal samples collected antemortem (trial 1) as well as animal tissues, and carcass swabs collected at the abattoir (trials 1 and 2) were analyzed. Eight isolates of L. monocytogenes were recovered from five samples that represented 0.18% of the total samples (n = 2,775). In trial 1, L. monocytogenes was detected in a tonsil sample (0.6%; 1 positive of 181 tonsils), in a carcass (0.6%; 1 positive of 179 carcasses), which was sampled prior to the organic rinse, and in two chopped meat block samples (1.2%; 2 positive of 165 samples). In trial 2, L. monocytogenes was only detected in a single chopped meat block sample (0.15%; 1 positive of 688 total samples). These data indicate the low prevalence of L. monocytogenes in the cull sow.

Effect of culling and vaccination on bovine tuberculosis infection in a European badger (Meles meles) population by spatial simulation modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Abdou, Marwa; Frankena, Klaas; O'Keeffe, James; Byrne, Andrew W.

2016-01-01

The control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle herds in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) is partially hindered by spill-back infection from wild badgers (Meles meles). The aim of this study was to determine the relative effects of interventions (combinations of culling and/or vaccination) on bTB

Fatty acid profile in meat of culling ewes in different feedlot periods fed diets containing levels of inclusion of linseed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Claudia Radis

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Linseed plays an important role in animal nutrition as it contains long-chain fatty acids in its composition, which, once absorbed, are incorporated into meat and milk. For evaluate the concentration of fatty acids in the Longissimus dorsi muscle of culling ewes fed diets containing levels of inclusion of linseed, 88 culling ewes were used with an average initial body weight of 37.65 ± 6.98 kg were distributed in a completely randomized design with 12 treatments. Treatments consisted of the interaction between levels of linseed (0, 5, 10, and 15% and days in feedlot (30, 45, and 60. The most present fatty acids in the composition of the muscle L. dorsi were palmitic (27.32 g 100 g-1 and stearic (17.77 g 100 g-1. Saturated acids remained at low levels as the animals were fed greater levels of linseed, demonstrating the importance of introducing quality foods in animal feeding. Oleic acid was the most present monounsaturated fatty acid, with 40 g 100 g-1. Palmitoleic and elaidic fatty acids increased linearly as the linseed inclusion in the diet was increased. Polyunsaturated acids increased with the presence of linseed in the diet. For the linolenic acid (C18: 3n3, the best result was with inclusion of 10% of linseed in the total diet. All groups of animals that received linseed obtained better n6:n3 ratios, which varied from 1.81 to 4.14. The higher CLA values obtained in this study are related to the higher amounts of inclusion of linseed in the sheep diet, varying from 1.15 to 5.72 g 100 g-1. It is recommended culling ewes supplemented with inclusion of 10% linseed, for 60 days in feedlot, because they comprise a larger number of favorable traits regarding to the profile fatty acids of Longissimus dorsi.

Enhanced oxidative stability of fish oil by encapsulating in culled banana resistant starch-soy protein isolate based microcapsules in functional bakery products.

Science.gov (United States)

Nasrin, Taslima Ayesha Aktar; Anal, Anil Kumar

2015-08-01

Oil in water emulsions were produced by the mixture of culled banana resistant starch (CBRS) & soy protein isolate (SPI), mixture of Hylon VII & SPI and SPI with 7.5 and 5 % (w/w) Menhaden fish oil. The emulsions were further freeze- dried obtaining 33 and 50 % oil load microcapsules. The range of particles diameter was 4.11 to 7.25 μm and viscosity was 34.6 to 146.48 cP of the emulsions. Compressibility index (CI), Hasner ratio (HR) and angle of repose (AR) was significantly (p < 0.01) lower of the microcapsules made with starch and protein (CBRS & SPI and Hylon VII & SPI) than that made with protein (SPI) only. Microcapsules composed of CBRS & SPI with 33 % oil load had maximum microencapsulation efficiency (82.49 %) and highest oxidative stability. Muffin made with emulsions containing mixture of CBRS & SPI exhibited less fishy flavour than that containing mixture of Hylon VII & SPI.

Effect of anthelmintics on reproductive performance and first-lactation culling rate in Holstein heifers.

Science.gov (United States)

Mejía, M E; Perri, A F; Miglierina, M M; Formía, N; Becú-Villalobos, D; Lacau-Mengido, I M

2009-12-26

Female Holstein calves were treated with ivermectin from birth to first oestrus to study the effect of parasitic burden and anthelmintic treatment on reproductive and productive performance. First oestrus, age at first service and age at calving were advanced by 30, 70 and 110 days, respectively (P<0.05), in ivermectin-treated animals compared with controls. No significant differences were observed in the conception rate, the number of services and the characteristics of the newborn calves and any problems at calving between the two groups. Daily milk yield, fat content in milk during first lactation, and the concentrations of growth hormone, insulin-like growth factor type 1, insulin and prolactin in serum were similar in both groups of cows. Culling during the first lactation was more common in untreated (47 per cent) than in treated (11 per cent) cows (P<0.05).

Selection for reproductive traits in white egg stock using independent culling levels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GS Schmidt

2005-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to report the response to selection for fertility and hatchability in white egg layers strains, based on sire and dam performance, and the effects of inbreeding on these traits. Two selected white egg strains (CC and DD from Embrapa´s poultry program under multiple trait selection were compared to a control strain (CCc. The control strain was established by randomly mating one male from each sire family to a non-related female from each dam family and was used to monitor genetic change in the selected lines. CC and DD were selected using family and individual information on hen-day egg production up to 40 weeks of age, egg weight, sexual maturity and 16-week-old body weight over five generations. Independent culling levels (ICL were also used during population expansion to eliminate sires and dams with low fertility (FERT and hatchability (HATC. Initially, FERT and HATC were over 90.0% in both selected and control strains. FERT and HATC of the selected and the control strains were compared during the last generation. FERT averages were 93.8, 93.8 and 94.4%, and HATCH averages were 93.2, 91.6 and 93.1% for CC, DD and CCc respectively. FERT and HATCH means were not different among strains. Estimated inbreeding increased at a rate of 0.4% per generation in all strains. Selection using ICL was able to effectively maintain the high initial FERT and HATC levels, and provide potential for high selection intensity in other traits. Inbreeding depression was not observed for any trait, indicating that selection compensated for any negative effects of inbreeding.

Influence of body condition score on live and carcass value of cull beef cows.

Science.gov (United States)

Apple, J K

1999-10-01

Mature beef cows (n = 88) were slaughtered to determine the influence of body condition score (BCS) on carcass and live animal value. Cows were weighed and assigned a BCS (9-point scale), 24 h before slaughter. Hide and by-products weights were recorded during harvest. After a 48-h chill period, the right side of each carcass was fabricated into boneless subprimal cuts, minor cuts, lean trim, fat, and bone. Weights were recorded at all stages of fabrication. Carcass values (U.S.$/100 kg of hot carcass weight) were calculated for U.S. Utility and U.S. Cutter grades, as well as for the Utility/Cutter mix for each BCS. Gross value included the carcass value and the value of the hide and byproducts, whereas net value was calculated after harvest and fabrication costs and by-product value were considered. Live value (U.S.$/100 kg of live weight) was computed by dividing the net value by the animal's live weight 24 h before harvest. The value of the hide and by-products for BCS-2 cows was greater (Pmix, cows designated with a BCS of 7 and 8 had greater (P.05) to BCS-7 cows. Information from this study can be used by the non-fed beef industry to establish a value-based marketing system. Data from this study would indicate that marketing cull beef cows at a BCS of 6 could optimize economic returns to both cow-calf producers and non-fed beef packers.

Evaluation of Two Compressed Air Foam Systems for Culling Caged Layer Hens

Science.gov (United States)

Weiher, Jaclyn A.; Alphin, Robert L.; Hougentogler, Daniel P.

2018-01-01

Simple Summary Control of avian influenza and similar diseases in commercial poultry operations is challenging; the six major steps are surveillance, biosecurity, quarantine, depopulation, disposal, and cleaning and disinfection. Depopulation is used to cull animals that are terminally ill and to reduce the number of animals that can spread an untreatable disease. Water-based foam depopulation was used effectively during the 2014–2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak in the United States. Water-based foam, however, cannot be used effectively in caged poultry operations. Compressed air foam systems were initially developed for structural fire-fighting and, with modifications, can provide the conditions required to effectively penetrate a poultry cage and provide sufficient residence time for depopulation. In this experiment, compressed air foam was used to depopulate caged layer hens. Compressed air foam resulted in faster unconsciousness than carbon dioxide gassing. The experiment demonstrated that compressed air foam systems have promise for depopulating birds raised in cages. Abstract Outbreaks of avian influenza (AI) and other highly contagious poultry diseases continue to be a concern for those involved in the poultry industry. In the situation of an outbreak, emergency depopulation of the birds involved is necessary. In this project, two compressed air foam systems (CAFS) were evaluated for mass emergency depopulation of layer hens in a manure belt equipped cage system. In both experiments, a randomized block design was used with multiple commercial layer hens treated with one of three randomly selected depopulation methods: CAFS, CAFS with CO2 gas, and CO2 gas. In Experiment 1, a Rowe manufactured CAFS was used, a selection of birds were instrumented, and the time to unconsciousness, brain death, altered terminal cardiac activity and motion cessation were recorded. CAFS with and without CO2 was faster to unconsciousness, however, the other

A structured approach to control of Salmonella Dublin in 10 Danish dairy herds based on risk scoring and test-and-manage procedures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

2012-01-01

routes of infection; 4) interpretation of repeated testing of individual animals to detect high-risk animals for special hygienic management or culling; and 5) diagnostic testing of different age groups and bulk tank milk to evaluate progress of control over time. Serology, true prevalence estimates...... stock and adult cattle in 10 case herds that were followed for more than three years. The five steps in the structured approach were: 1) risk scoring to determine transmission routes within the herd and into the herd; 2) determining a plan of action; 3) performing management changes to close important...... and changes in herd classification in the Danish surveillance programme for Salmonella Dublin were used to assess the progress in the herds during and after the control period. Effective control of Salmonella Dublin was achieved in all participating herds through management that focused on closing infection...

The effects of skeletal separation and moisture enhancement for improving the eating quality of cull cow beef.

Science.gov (United States)

Streiter, P J; Campbell, C P; Mandell, I B

2012-12-01

Sixty-two cull beef cows were slaughtered to investigate effects of skeletal separation and moisture enhancement on beef eating quality. Muscles from each carcass side were randomly assigned to 1) no postmortem processing (NPP), 2) prerigor skeletal separation (SS), 3) moisture enhancement (ME) using calcium ascorbate or 4) a combination of SS and ME (SS/ME). Postmortem processing treatment (PPT) by ageing (PM) interactions (Padditive effect of combining SS and ME improved palatability traits versus SS or ME alone. Panellists found no differences (P>0.14) in softness and tenderness between SS/ME and Canadian AA or AAA beef. Postmortem processing of beef cows may produce beef as tender and juicy as beef from younger carcasses. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the Farm Management of Culling Cattle: A Survey of Existing Practices and Suggestions for Drafting of Best Practices

Science.gov (United States)

Frattasi, Alessandro Russo; Cesano, Lorenzo; Botta, Michelangelo

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate different aspects regarding culled cattle and to suggest operating procedures for their correct management. Information collected in Piedmont region allowed for an assessment of the number of cattle put down on the farm, a quantification of slaughters performed in urgency and emergency (SUS/SES) and a headcount of those which died during farming. The survey highlighted the limited use of euthanasia or putting down compared to the number of cases of SUS/SES which were approximately ten times higher. If cattle displays severe health problems, such as a multifactorial disease like downer cow, the farmer has to decide rapidly the treatment to avoid cattle distress. A checklist has been developed and a flow chart has been revised to assist farmers and vets to quicken the decision-taking process and to manage the cattle in a more efficient manner. During this study a number of different problems have been stressed out. Particularly, the shortcomings in the training of operators commissioned to manage the animals, the inadequacy of structures used for the sheltering and slaughter of bovines on the farm, and differences in the operating procedures for culled cattle across the territory. From the obtained results, we can conclude that it is necessary to adopt a transversal approach, so that the information regarding these animals (welfare, health status, drug treatments and destination) will be uniform and adequate during all the steps of production, to ensure animal welfare and food safety. PMID:27800327

Assessment of the farm management of culling cattle: a survey of existing practices and suggestions for drafting of best practices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandro Russo Frattasi

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to evaluate different aspects regarding culled cattle and to suggest operating procedures for their correct management. Information collected in Piedmont region allowed for an assessment of the number of cattle put down on the farm, a quantification of slaughters performed in urgency and emergency (SUS/SES and a headcount of those which died during farming. The survey highlighted the limited use of euthanasia or putting down compared to the number of cases of SUS/SES which were approximately ten times higher. If cattle displays severe health problems, such as a multifactorial disease like downer cow, the farmer has to decide rapidly the treatment to avoid cattle distress. A checklist has been developed and a flow chart has been revised to assist farmers and vets to quicken the decision-taking process and to manage the cattle in a more efficient manner. During this study a number of different problems have been stressed out. Particularly, the shortcomings in the training of operators commissioned to manage the animals, the inadequacy of structures used for the sheltering and slaughter of bovines on the farm, and differences in the operating procedures for culled cattle across the territory. From the obtained results, we can conclude that it is necessary to adopt a transversal approach, so that the information regarding these animals (welfare, health status, drug treatments and destination will be uniform and adequate during all the steps of production, to ensure animal welfare and food safety.

Risk-based safety indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szikszai, T.

1997-01-01

The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

Risk based modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

1993-01-01

Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

Feedlot finishing cull cows fed diets with different levels of concentrateTerminação em confinamento de vacas de descarte recebendo dietas com diferentes teores de concentrado

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maryon Guilherme Strack

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance and carcass quality and beef and cull cow subjected to diets with two levels of concentrate (1.08 and 1.62% of body weight, whith base in dry matter durind the feedlot finishing. In this study were used twenty cull cows of the breed Aberdeen Angus, Charolais, Caracu, Canchim and Charolais x Caracu whith a mean age of 7.2 years. The average weight gain during the termination was similar between levels 1.08 and 1.62% (1.81 and 2.00 kg/day, respectively. However, animals in the 1.62% group consumed much digestible energy (46.13 Mcal / day compared to the lowest level (38.32 Mcal / day, showing similarity (P > 0.01 in the values of conversion food (6.78 and 6.93 kg dry matter / kg weight gain and energy efficiency (21.68 and 23.40 between the two groups. In feedlot finishing cull cows with an average age of 7.5 years, the increase of the concentrate from 1.08 to 1.62% of body weight based on dry matter based on corn silage, no benefits productive performance of cows nor the quality characteristics of meat. Increasing the concentrate level in the diet of this category can cause greater haunch thickness and better carcass conformation in feedlot finishing.O objetivo do presente estudo foi avaliar o desempenho e a qualidade da carcaça e da carne de vacas de descarte submetidas a dietas com dois teores de concentrado (1,08 e 1,62% do peso vivo, com base na matéria seca durante o processo de terminação em confinamento. Foram utilizadas 20 vacas de descarte, de raça mestiça, que compõem a formação do composto Purunã, Aberdeen Angus, Charolês, Caracu, Canchim e Caracu x Charolês com idade média de 7,2 anos. Independente do nível de concentrado o ganho de peso médio durante a terminação foi semelhante entre os teores 1,08 e 1,62% (1,81 e 2,00 kg/ dia, respectivamente. No entanto, os animais do grupo 1,62% consumiram maior quantidade energia digestível (46,13Mcal/dia em relação ao

Prediction of beef carcass and meat traits from rearing factors in young bulls and cull cows.

Science.gov (United States)

Soulat, J; Picard, B; Léger, S; Monteils, V

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to predict the beef carcass and LM (thoracis part) characteristics and the sensory properties of the LM from rearing factors applied during the fattening period. Individual data from 995 animals (688 young bulls and 307 cull cows) in 15 experiments were used to establish prediction models. The data concerned rearing factors (13 variables), carcass characteristics (5 variables), LM characteristics (2 variables), and LM sensory properties (3 variables). In this study, 8 prediction models were established: dressing percentage and the proportions of fat tissue and muscle in the carcass to characterize the beef carcass; cross-sectional area of fibers (mean fiber area) and isocitrate dehydrogenase activity to characterize the LM; and, finally, overall tenderness, juiciness, and flavor intensity scores to characterize the LM sensory properties. A random effect was considered in each model: the breed for the prediction models for the carcass and LM characteristics and the trained taste panel for the prediction of the meat sensory properties. To evaluate the quality of prediction models, 3 criteria were measured: robustness, accuracy, and precision. The model was robust when the root mean square errors of prediction of calibration and validation sub-data sets were near to one another. Except for the mean fiber area model, the obtained predicted models were robust. The prediction models were considered to have a high accuracy when the mean prediction error (MPE) was ≤0.10 and to have a high precision when the was the closest to 1. The prediction of the characteristics of the carcass from the rearing factors had a high precision ( > 0.70) and a high prediction accuracy (MPE 0.10). Only the flavor intensity of the beef score could be satisfactorily predicted from the rearing factors with high precision ( = 0.72) and accuracy (MPE = 0.10). All the prediction models displayed different effects of the rearing factors according to animal categories

Designing a risk-based surveillance program for Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis in Norwegian dairy herds using multivariate statistical process control analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Whist, A C; Liland, K H; Jonsson, M E; Sæbø, S; Sviland, S; Østerås, O; Norström, M; Hopp, P

2014-11-01

Surveillance programs for animal diseases are critical to early disease detection and risk estimation and to documenting a population's disease status at a given time. The aim of this study was to describe a risk-based surveillance program for detecting Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in Norwegian dairy cattle. The included risk factors for detecting MAP were purchase of cattle, combined cattle and goat farming, and location of the cattle farm in counties containing goats with MAP. The risk indicators included production data [culling of animals >3 yr of age, carcass conformation of animals >3 yr of age, milk production decrease in older lactating cows (lactations 3, 4, and 5)], and clinical data (diarrhea, enteritis, or both, in animals >3 yr of age). Except for combined cattle and goat farming and cattle farm location, all data were collected at the cow level and summarized at the herd level. Predefined risk factors and risk indicators were extracted from different national databases and combined in a multivariate statistical process control to obtain a risk assessment for each herd. The ordinary Hotelling's T(2) statistic was applied as a multivariate, standardized measure of difference between the current observed state and the average state of the risk factors for a given herd. To make the analysis more robust and adapt it to the slowly developing nature of MAP, monthly risk calculations were based on data accumulated during a 24-mo period. Monitoring of these variables was performed to identify outliers that may indicate deviance in one or more of the underlying processes. The highest-ranked herds were scattered all over Norway and clustered in high-density dairy cattle farm areas. The resulting rankings of herds are being used in the national surveillance program for MAP in 2014 to increase the sensitivity of the ongoing surveillance program in which 5 fecal samples for bacteriological examination are collected from 25 dairy herds

Study on some risk factors and effects of bovine ketosis on dairy cows from the Galicia region (Spain).

Science.gov (United States)

Viña, C; Fouz, R; Camino, F; Sanjuán, M L; Yus, E; Diéguez, F J

2017-10-01

The study was designed to determine the relation between β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) concentrations in milk from dairy cows after calving and the length of the previous lactation, the dry period and the 305-day normalized production, and to assess the influence of BHB concentrations on culling and test-day milk productions and somatic cell counts (SCC) throughout the lactation that followed the BHB measurement. The data used in the study were obtained from 59 187 cows in the Galicia region (Spain). BHB determination was performed using Fourier-transformed infrared spectrometry from the milk samples collected from each cow on the first post-partum test day. For statistical analysis, the following methods were applied: (i) ordinal regression to assess the effect of the length of the previous lactation, the dry period and the 305-day normalized milk production on milk BHB, (ii) a Cox model to estimate the influence of the BHB concentration on risk of culling (overall and for a variety of reasons) and (iii) linear regression to assess the link between BHB and the milk yield and SCC obtained from each of the tests day performed throughout lactation. The probability of having higher BHB concentrations increased when the length of the previous lactation (p = 0.006), the dry period (p = 0.003) and the 305-day normalized milk yield (p = 0.005) increased. However, the slight increase observed (especially for the case of the dry period and the 305-day milk yield) would not justify that measures be implemented to reduce these traits. Higher concentrations of BHB led to an increased risk of culling due to 'death' (p ≤ 0.001) and 'urgent slaughter' (p ≤ 0.002) (both causes of involuntary culling). It also led to a reduction in milk production (p < 0.001) and an increase in SCC (p < 0.001) in the post-partum; from that moment onward (including peak lactation), there were no differences in those two parameters depending on the BHB levels. Journal of Animal

77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-30

...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

Risk-based safety indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sedlak, J.

2001-12-01

The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

Trailer temperature and humidity during winter transport of cattle in Canada and evaluation of indicators used to assess the welfare of cull beef cows before and after transport.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldhawk, C; Janzen, E; González, L A; Crowe, T; Kastelic, J; Kehler, C; Siemens, M; Ominski, K; Pajor, E; Schwartzkopf-Genswein, K S

2015-07-01

The current study evaluated 17 loads of cull beef cows transported in Canadian winter conditions to assess in-transit temperature and humidity, evaluation of events during loading and unloading, and animal condition and bruising. Regardless of the use of boards to block ventilation holes in trailers, temperatures were higher within trailers than at ambient locations during both travel and stationary periods (P cow transport may be related to pretransport animal condition and management of unloading.

Risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szikszai, T.

1997-01-01

The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

Effect of feeding complete feed block containing rumen protected protein, non-protein nitrogen and rumen protected fat on improving body condition and carcass traits of cull ewes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhatt, R S; Sahoo, A

2017-12-01

Nutrient utilization, body condition and carcass traits of cull ewes were studied in three dietary regimens based on complete feed block (CFB) feeding to control (C) with rumen protected protein (RPP), CU [RPP + urea (6 g/kg)] and CUF [RPP + urea + rumen protected fat (RPF; 40 g/kg)]. The RPP component (g/kg) in C had 1% formaldehyde-treated soy flakes 50, mustard cake 50 and sesame cake 30. The mustard and sesame cakes were replaced with urea on equivalent N basis in CU and CUF. The ewes were offered ad libitum CFB composed (g/kg) of concentrate 650, roughage 300 and molasses 50. The digestibility of OM and EE was higher (p Ewes in all the groups showed an improvement in carcass traits at 90 day. The pre-slaughter weight was higher (p ewes. Journal of Animal Physiology and Animal Nutrition © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bari, R.A.

1995-01-01

Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-11

... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment: An Empirical Model to Describe Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment on the Culling of Healthy Animals During an Animal Disease Epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cohen, N.E.; Brom, F.W.A.; Stassen, E.N.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present and defend the theoretical framework of an empirical model to describe people’s fundamental moral attitudes (FMAs) to animals, the stratification of FMAs in society and the role of FMAs in judgment on the culling of healthy animals in an animal disease epidemic. We used

RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

OpenAIRE

Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

2011-01-01

Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based Requirements Prioritization method (RiskREP) that extends misuse case-based methods with IT architecture based risk assessment and countermeasure definition and prioritization. Countermeasure prioritizati...

12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

2007-01-01

Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

Pengaruh Pemberian Margarin terhadap Sifat Fisiko Kimiawi dan Sensoris Sosis Ayam Petelur Afkir (The Effect of Margarine Application on Physicochemical and Sensory Properties of Culled Hens Layer Sausages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendronoto Arnoldus Walewengko Lengkey

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Research was aimed to determine the effect of margarine application on the physicochemical and sensory properties of culled layer hens sausages. In addition to utilizing the culled layer hens meat as a source of animal protein, as well as to diversify food, so that the resulting product can be accepted by consumers. This study was conducted in a completely randomized experimental design with four treatments unidirectional pattern with margarine giving addition 0.0 %; 2.5 %; 5.0 % and 7.5 % with four replications. The data obtained were statistically tested by analysis of variance (ANOVA, if there is a noticeable difference, then it continued to Duncan's multiple range test. The analysis showed that the water content, fat content, and pH sausage has significant effect, but the protein content was not significantly between the sausages were not given margarine (P-1 and the sausages are given margarine (P-2, P-3 and P-4. The sausage produced will increase the protein content, fat content, and pH with increasing percentage of margarine given, otherwise the moisture content will decrease. Based on sensory testing (appearance, color, flavor, texture and total acceptance, culled layer hens sausage can be accepted by consumers. Sausages were given margarine value ranges between 7.0 to 8.4 (just like - really like and were not given margarine has lower value ranging from 5.2 to 6.9 (neutral - just like.   ABSTRAK Penelitian mengenai pengaruh pemberian margarin terhadap sifat fisiko kimiawi dan sensoris sosis ayam petelur afkir adalah untuk mengetahui penambahan margarin terhadap kualitas sosis ayam petelur afkir, selain itu untuk memanfaatkan daging ayam petelur afkir sebagai sumber protein hewani, dan untuk melakukan penganekaragaman pangan, sehingga produk yang dihasilkan dapat diterima oleh konsumen. Penelitian ini dilakukan secara eksperimental dengan rancangan acak lengkap pola searah dengan empat perlakuan pemberian margarin 0,0 %; 2,5 %; 5

Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bødker, Rene

of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...... in Northern Europe. This model approach may be used as a basis for risk based surveillance. In risk based surveillance limited resources for surveillance are targeted at geographical areas most at risk and only when the risk is high. This makes risk based surveillance a cost effective alternative...... sample to a diagnostic laboratory. Risk based surveillance models may reduce this delay. An important feature of risk based surveillance models is their ability to continuously communicate the level of risk to veterinarians and hence increase awareness when risk is high. This is essential for submission...

Risk-based and deterministic regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

1995-07-01

Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

Management of bacterial kidney disease in Chinook Salmon hatcheries based on broodstock testing by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay: A multiyear study

Science.gov (United States)

Munson, A. Douglas; Elliott, Diane G.; Johnson, Keith

2010-01-01

From the mid-1980s through the early 1990s, outbreaks of bacterial kidney disease (BKD) caused by Renibacterium salmoninarum continued in Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG) hatcheries despite the use of three control methods: (1) injection of returning adult fish with erythromycin to reduce prespawning BKD mortality and limit vertical transmission of R. salmoninarum, (2) topical disinfection of green eggs with iodophor, and (3) prophylactic treatments of juvenile fish with erythromycin-medicated feed. In addition, programs to manage BKD through measurement of R. salmoninarum antigen levels in kidney tissues from spawning female Chinook salmon by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were tested over 13–15 brood years at three IDFG hatcheries. The ELISA results were used for either (1) segregated rearing of progeny from females with high ELISA optical density (OD) values (usually ≥0.25), which are indicative of high R. salmoninarum antigen levels, or (2) culling of eggs from females with high ELISA OD values. The ELISA-based culling program had the most profound positive effects on the study populations. Mortality of juvenile fish during rearing was significantly lower at each hatchery for brood years derived from culling compared with brood years for which culling was not practiced. The prevalence of R. salmoninarum in juvenile fish, as evidenced by detection of the bacterium in kidney smears by the direct fluorescent antibody test, also decreased significantly at each hatchery. In addition, the proportions of returning adult females with kidney ELISA OD values of 0.25 or more decreased 56–85% for fish reared in brood years during which culling was practiced, whereas the proportions of ELISA-negative adults increased 55–58%. This management strategy may allow IDFG Chinook salmon hatcheries to reduce or eliminate prophylactic erythromycin-medicated feed treatments. We recommend using ELISA-based

Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

1995-01-01

This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

Science.gov (United States)

Leitner, Jesse

2016-01-01

This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

Text mining of web-based medical content

CERN Document Server

Neustein, Amy

2014-01-01

Text Mining of Web-Based Medical Content examines web mining for extracting useful information that can be used for treating and monitoring the healthcare of patients. This work provides methodological approaches to designing mapping tools that exploit data found in social media postings. Specific linguistic features of medical postings are analyzed vis-a-vis available data extraction tools for culling useful information.

Communication between United States-Based Firms and Mexican Production Facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Waldman, Lila

A study examined the types of communication technologies being used by United States-based corporations with operations in Mexico to determine the challenges these companies face when communicating across the border. A total of 703 U.S. corporations doing business with Mexico (culled from lists in two professional directories) were chosen for the…

HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Dorosh

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

Effects of pain mitigation and method of castration on behavior and feedlot performance in cull beef bulls.

Science.gov (United States)

Repenning, P E; Ahola, J K; Callan, R J; Fox, J T; French, J T; Giles, R L; Peel, R K; Whittier, J C; Engle, T E

2013-10-01

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of castration method (banding vs. surgical) and use of analgesia on behavior and feedlot performance in cull bulls. Angus, Hereford, and Angus-crossbred bulls (n = 20; initial BW = 384 ± 59.3 kg; 336 ± 20.1 d old) were housed in feedlot pens equipped with the ability to measure individual daily feed intake. A balanced randomized block design using a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement of treatments was used. A multimodal analgesia (MMA) protocol was used and consisted of sutcutaneous ketamine stun containing butorphanol (0.01 mg/kg BW), xylazine (0.02 mg/kg BW), ketamine (0.04 mg/kg BW), and a local 2% lidocaine hydrochloride anesthetic block of the spermatic cords (10 mL/cord) and scrotum (10 mL) on d 0. Flunixin meglumine (1.2 mg/kg) was administered intravenously on d 0, 1, 2, and 3 to MMA cattle. Cattle were stratified to treatments based on breed, BW, age, and a temperament score. Treatments included 1) band castration without analgesia (BND), 2) band castration with analgesia (BND-MMA), 3) surgical castration without analgesia (SURG), and 4) surgical castration with analgesia (SURG-MMA). All castrations were performed on d 0. Chute exit velocity (EV) and time in chute (TIC) were collected on d -9, 0, 1, 2, and 13. Willingness-to-enter-chute (WTE) score, rectal temperature (TEMP), heart rate (HR), and respiration (RESP) were collected on d 0, 1, 2, 3, and 13. Cattle were weighed on d -9 and 13 while feeding behaviors were collected continuously for 57 d precastration and 28 d postcastration. There was a tendency (P cattle receiving analgesia. Both SURG treatments exhibited elevated TEMP on d 1 (P castrates during the first week postcastration. Results suggest that pain mitigation reduces the impact of castration on ADG and DMI.

RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming-Chang LEE

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

Risk-based inspection of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masopust, R.

1995-01-01

A multidiscipline research programme was developed in the USA to establish risk-based inspections for NPP structures and equipment components. Based on this US research effort, the risk-based procedure for developing inspection guidelines for NPPs is described. The procedure includes the definition of systems, qualitative risk assessment, qualitative risk analysis and development of the inspection programme. The method, when adopted and modified, is recommended also for risk-based inspections of structures and equipment of WWER-type NPPs. A pilot application of the method to unit 1 of the Surry NPP is summarized. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig., 5 refs

Risk-based remediation: Approach and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frishmuth, R.A.; Benson, L.A.

1995-01-01

The principle objective of remedial actions is to protect human health and the environment. Risk assessments are the only defensible tools available to demonstrate to the regulatory community and public that this objective can be achieved. Understanding the actual risks posed by site-related contamination is crucial to designing cost-effective remedial strategies. All to often remedial actions are overdesigned, resulting in little to no increase in risk reduction while increasing project cost. Risk-based remedial actions have recently been embraced by federal and state regulators, industry, government, the scientific community, and the public as a mechanism to implement rapid and cost-effective remedial actions. Emphasizing risk reduction, rather than adherence to ambiguous and generic standards, ensures that only remedial actions required to protect human health and the environment at a particular site are implemented. Two sites are presented as case studies on how risk-based approaches are being used to remediate two petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. The sites are located at two US Air Force Bases, Wurtsmith Air Force Base (AFB) in Oscoda, Michigan and Malmstrom AFB in Great Falls, Montana

Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

2016-09-30

Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

Spatial Targeting for Bovine Tuberculosis Control: Can the Locations of Infected Cattle Be Used to Find Infected Badgers?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine M Smith

Full Text Available Bovine tuberculosis is a disease of historical importance to human health in the UK that remains a major animal health and economic issue. Control of the disease in cattle is complicated by the presence of a reservoir species, the Eurasian badger. In spite of uncertainty in the degree to which cattle disease results from transmission from badgers, and opposition from environmental groups, culling of badgers has been licenced in two large areas in England. Methods to limit culls to smaller areas that target badgers infected with TB whilst minimising the number of uninfected badgers culled is therefore of considerable interest. Here, we use historical data from a large-scale field trial of badger culling to assess two alternative hypothetical methods of targeting TB-infected badgers based on the distribution of cattle TB incidents: (i a simple circular 'ring cull'; and (ii geographic profiling, a novel technique for spatial targeting of infectious disease control that predicts the locations of sources of infection based on the distribution of linked cases. Our results showed that both methods required coverage of very large areas to ensure a substantial proportion of infected badgers were removed, and would result in many uninfected badgers being culled. Geographic profiling, which accounts for clustering of infections in badger and cattle populations, produced a small but non-significant increase in the proportion of setts with TB-infected compared to uninfected badgers included in a cull. It also provided no overall improvement at targeting setts with infected badgers compared to the ring cull. Cattle TB incidents in this study were therefore insufficiently clustered around TB-infected badger setts to design an efficient spatially targeted cull; and this analysis provided no evidence to support a move towards spatially targeted badger culling policies for bovine TB control.

Clinical endometritis in an Argentinean herd of dairy cows: risk factors and reproductive efficiency.

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliodori, M J; Magnasco, R P; Becu-Villalobos, D; Lacau-Mengido, I M; Risco, C A; de la Sota, R L

2013-01-01

The objectives of this study were to assess the clinical and metabolic risk factors for clinical endometritis, the likelihood for having a normal vaginal discharge during postpartum, and the effects of endometritis on milk yield, reproductive efficiency, and metabolic status in Holstein cows. The study was conducted in a commercial dairy herd (Cordoba, Argentina) where 303 Holstein cows were enrolled. Cows were body condition scored (1 to 5) and tail bled on -14, 7, 21, 31, 41, and 50 d relative to parturition. Cows having a vaginal discharge with presence of pus between 21 and 41 d postpartum (dpp) were diagnosed as having clinical endometritis. Plasma blood samples were analyzed for nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA), β-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA), and blood urea nitrogen using commercial kits and insulin-like growth factor 1, insulin, and leptin by RIA. Data were analyzed with PROC MIXED, PROC GENMOD, and PROC PHREG of SAS (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC). Abnormal calving and puerperal metritis increased the risk for endometritis [adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=2.21 for both]. High prepartum NEFA and high postpartum BHBA increased the risk for endometritis (AOR=1.003 and 1.001, respectively), whereas high prepartum blood urea nitrogen reduced it (AOR=0.853). Cut-offs of 456.6 μM NEFA and 402.5 μM BHBA had sensitivities of 0.69 and 0.58, and specificities of 0.88 and 0.86, respectively. The likelihood for having normal vaginal discharge increased with time (∼1% × dpp) and with normal calving. Cows with endometritis had higher milk yield than normal herdmates (27.8±0.9 vs. 25.7±0.4 kg/d), lower risk for pregnancy by 100 dpp (AOR=0.10), higher nonpregnancy risk by 200 dpp (AOR=2.87), and higher risk for culling than normal cows (AOR=2.28). Cows with endometritis had a lower hazard rate (0.44) for pregnancy and had approximately 70 d longer calving-to-conception intervals. Finally, endometritis had no effect on metabolic hormones. In conclusion, the risk for clinical

A model-based risk management framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

2002-08-15

The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

Risk aversion affects economic values of blue fox breeding scheme.

Science.gov (United States)

Peura, J; Kempe, R; Strandén, I; Rydhmer, L

2016-12-01

The profit and production of an average Finnish blue fox farm was simulated using a deterministic bio-economic farm model. Risk was included using Arrow-Prat absolute risk aversion coefficient and profit variance. Risk-rated economic values were calculated for pregnancy rate, litter loss, litter size, pelt size, pelt quality, pelt colour clarity, feed efficiency and eye infection. With high absolute risk aversion, economic values were lower than with low absolute risk aversion. Economic values were highest for litter loss (18.16 and 26.42 EUR), litter size (13.27 and 19.40 EUR), pregnancy (11.99 and 18.39 EUR) and eye infection (12.39 and 13.81 EUR). Sensitivity analysis showed that selection pressure for improved eye health depended strongly on proportion of culled animals among infected animals and much less on the proportion of infected animals. The economic value of feed efficiency was lower than expected (6.06 and 8.03 EUR). However, it was almost the same magnitude as pelt quality (7.30 and 7.30 EUR) and higher than the economic value of pelt size (3.37 and 5.26 EUR). Risk factors should be considered in blue fox breeding scheme because they change the relative importance of traits. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

2003-01-01

of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

Livestock Disease Management for Trading Across Different Regulatory Regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bate, Andrew M; Jones, Glyn; Kleczkowski, Adam; Naylor, Rebecca; Timmis, Jon; White, Piran C L; Touza, Julia

2018-02-12

The maintenance of livestock health depends on the combined actions of many different actors, both within and across different regulatory frameworks. Prior work recognised that private risk management choices have the ability to reduce the spread of infection to trading partners. We evaluate the efficiency of farmers' alternative biosecurity choices in terms of their own-benefits from unilateral strategies and quantify the impact they may have in filtering the disease externality of trade. We use bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) in England and Scotland as a case study, since this provides an example of a situation where contrasting strategies for BVD management occur between selling and purchasing farms. We use an agent-based bioeconomic model to assess the payoff dependence of farmers connected by trade but using different BVD management strategies. We compare three disease management actions: test-cull, test-cull with vaccination and vaccination alone. For a two-farm trading situation, all actions carried out by the selling farm provide substantial benefits to the purchasing farm in terms of disease avoided, with the greatest benefit resulting from test-culling with vaccination on the selling farm. Likewise, unilateral disease strategies by purchasers can be effective in reducing disease risks created through trade. We conclude that regulation needs to balance the trade-off between private gains from those bearing the disease management costs and the positive spillover effects on others.

Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deriot, S.

1992-10-01

This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, T.H.

1995-12-31

By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

Risk factors and the economic impact of ovarian cysts on reproductive performance of dairy cows in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ki-Doek; Ki, Kwang-Sook; Kang, Hyun-Gu; Kim, Ill-Hwa

2005-08-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the risk factors for development of postpartum ovarian cysts by evaluating several reproductive factors in individual cows, and to determine the economic impact of ovarian cysts on subsequent reproductive performance in dairy herds in Korea. The data, including cow parity, abnormal puerperium, endometritis, body condition score (BCS), and breeding status were collected from 634 cows in 9 dairy herds. We used logistic regression to evaluate the effects of these factors on ovarian cysts. A stepwise procedure, used to obtain the appropriate model with alpha=0.05, revealed that cow parity was the most important risk factor for ovarian cyst development within 8 weeks postpartum, while development of endometritis and BCS loss>or=1 from the dry period to 8 weeks postpartum were the most important risk factors for ovarian cyst development beyond 8 weeks postpartum. The occurrence of ovarian cysts beyond 8 weeks postpartum prolonged (Pconception (77 days), and increased (Prate (7.8%), while ovarian cyst development within 8 weeks postpartum did not affect (P>0.05) the mean intervals from calving to first service and conception or the culling rate. The economic loss resulting from the occurrence of ovarian cysts was estimated at approximately 823,996 won ($687) due to effects on the cost of nutrition, average growth of calves, labor and medical costs, and culling. These results suggest that cow parity is correlated with the development of ovarian cysts within 8 weeks postpartum, and endometritis and BCS loss>or=1 from the dry period to 8 weeks postpartum are correlated with the development of ovarian cysts after 8 weeks postpartum, which decreases reproductive performance and results in economic loss in dairy herds in Korea.

Effect of cull potatoes in the diet for finishing Belgian Blue double-muscled cows.

Science.gov (United States)

Fiems, L O; De Boever, J L; Vanacker, J M; De Brabander, D L

2013-01-01

The use of culled potatoes was investigated in Belgian Blue double-muscled finishing cows, confined in tie stalls. The control diet (Treatment 1) consisted of concentrate and maize silage (50/50 on a dry matter (DM) basis). Potatoes either replaced 60% maize silage (Treatment 2) or 60% concentrate (Treatment 3). Diets were formulated to be isocaloric and isonitrogenous. They were fed ad libitum. Approximately 18 kg potatoes were fed daily in Treatments 2 and 3. Daily gain was not significantly altered; it decreased from 1.09 kg (Treatment 1) to 1.04 kg (Treatment 2) or increased to 1.20 kg (Treatment 3), although potatoes stimulated DM intake by 5% to 8% (P < 0.05). Feed conversion was unaffected in comparison with the control diet, when expressed in terms of DM, but energy efficiency (MJ/kg live weight gain) was substantially lower for Treatment 2 compared with Treatment 1 (89.9 v. 79.0; P = 0.046). Carcass weight, grading and composition were not affected by treatments, but potatoes increased dressing percentage (P = 0.009). Treatment had no significant effect on meat quality parameters. However, potatoes (Treatments 2 and 3) tended to decrease moisture content (P = 0.090) and tended to increase drip loss (P = 0.059) compared with Treatment 1. Because of a better animal performance and a lower feed cost, it is most appropriate to use potatoes as a replacement for concentrate. Feeding large amounts of potatoes besides concentrate may have an adverse effect on the fibrousness of the diet, resulting in a tendency (-5%) for a reduced daily gain and a lower energy efficiency (P < 0.05).

Development of new risk based regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, L.

1999-01-01

A short presentation of the oil and gas industry in Norway, and a brief overview of the regulatory regime in the petroleum sector in Norway is given. Risk analysis has been performed in Norway since 1981 and the various applications will be described. These risk analyses are quite different from a nuclear PSA and some of these differences will be commented. Risk based optimisation techniques such as RCM (Reliability Centred Maintenance) and Risk Based Inspection is used in the industry, with very limited support from the risk analysis. Some of the limitation that exist when such techniques are imported from other industries will be commented on. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) is revising our regulations and some of the future plants when it comes to risk informed regulatory requirements will be presented. (au)

Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

2012-01-01

Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

1995-01-01

Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Cowled, Brendan D; Garner, M Graeme; Negus, Katherine; Ward, Michael P

2012-01-16

Disease modelling is one approach for providing new insights into wildlife disease epidemiology. This paper describes a spatio-temporal, stochastic, susceptible- exposed-infected-recovered process model that simulates the potential spread of classical swine fever through a documented, large and free living wild pig population following a simulated incursion. The study area (300 000 km2) was in northern Australia. Published data on wild pig ecology from Australia, and international Classical Swine Fever data was used to parameterise the model. Sensitivity analyses revealed that herd density (best estimate 1-3 pigs km-2), daily herd movement distances (best estimate approximately 1 km), probability of infection transmission between herds (best estimate 0.75) and disease related herd mortality (best estimate 42%) were highly influential on epidemic size but that extraordinary movements of pigs and the yearly home range size of a pig herd were not. CSF generally established (98% of simulations) following a single point introduction. CSF spread at approximately 9 km2 per day with low incidence rates (management in wildlife. An important finding was that it may only be necessary to cull or vaccinate relatively small proportions of a population to successfully contain and eradicate some wildlife disease epidemics.

Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

Science.gov (United States)

Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

Relationships between metabolite and IGF1 concentrations with fertility and production outcomes following left abomasal displacement.

Science.gov (United States)

Lyons, N A; Cooke, J S; Wilson, S; van Winden, S C; Gordon, P J; Wathes, D C

2014-06-28

Left displacement of the abomasum (LDA) is an important periparturient disorder of dairy cows. This study evaluated differences in metabolic parameters between case-control pairs of cows (n=67) from 24 farms, and related these to outcomes in fertility and production. Cows with an assisted delivery were ×3 more likely to develop LDA, and affected cows tended to have had a longer dry period. At recruitment, cows with LDA tended to be in lower body condition accompanied by significantly higher circulating concentrations of β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB), non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA) and glucose and lower IGF1. Overall culling rate for all cows in the subsequent lactation was 22.5 per cent. Cows with LDA were not at increased odds of being culled but they produced, on average, 2272 l less milk and tended to have longer intervals to conception. Considering all cows irrespective of LDA status, the mean IGF1 level at recruitment was the only measured parameter associated with subsequent risk of culling (culled 11.7 ng/ml, not culled 23.5 ng/ml; P=0.005). Our findings support previous work indicating that poor insulin sensitivity through an uncoupling of the somatotrophic axis may be an important factor associated with LDA. Improved nutritional management of dry cows should reduce the incidence of both LDA and culling. British Veterinary Association.

A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

2015-01-01

A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.

2002-01-01

In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for

Calving interval and survival breeding values as measure of cow fertility in a pasture based production system with seasonal calving

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Olori, V.; Meuwissen, T.H.E.; Veerkamp, R.F.

2001-01-01

In a grass-based production system with seasonal calving, fertility is of major economic importance. A delay in conception due to poor fertility prolongs intercalving interval and causes a shift in calving pattern, which can lead to culling. Calving interval (CIV) information is readily available

Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

1993-01-01

OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thadani, A.C.

1997-01-01

This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

Risk of Debt-Based Financing in Indonesian Islamic Banking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kharisya Ayu Effendi

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to know the risk of debt-based financing in Islamic banking in Indonesia by using an accounting based calculation, those are NPF analysis, Credit risk Z-score and Altman Z-score. This study is telling about the risk of debt-based finacing on Indonesian Islamic banking using an accounting based measurement, those are NPF analysis, Credit Risk Z-score analysis and Altman Z-score analysis. The data was obtained from 2011 to 2015 from the website of each bank. The result is a risk on debt-based financing on Indonesian Islamic banking is low. The measurement using 3 accounting based measurement tool gives a consistent result, that is Indonesian Islamic banking use a debt-based financing have a high financial stability and a low risk.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.4821

Perception of mobile phone and base station risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegrist, Michael; Earle, Timothy C; Gutscher, Heinz; Keller, Carmen

2005-10-01

Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N = 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

Risk-based inspection--Development of guidelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-07-01

Effective inservice inspection programs can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. Most of the current inservice inspection programs for light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant components are based on experience and engineers' qualitative judgment. These programs include only an implicit consideration of risk, which combines the probability of failure of a component under its operation and loading conditions and the consequences of such failure, if it occurs. This document recommends appropriate methods for establishing a risk-based inspection program for LWR nuclear power plant components. The process has been built from a general methodology (Volume 1) and has been expanded to involve five major steps: defining the system; evaluating qualitative risk assessment results; using this and information from plant probabilistic risk assessments to perform a quantitative risk analysis; selecting target failure probabilities; and developing an inspection program for components using economic decision analysis and structural reliability assessment methods

Application of REVEAL-W to risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dezfuli, H.; Meyer, J.; Modarres, M.

1994-01-01

Over the past two years, the concept of risk-based configuration control has been introduced to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the nuclear industry. Converting much of the current, deterministically based regulation of nuclear power plants to risk-based regulation can result in lower levels of risk while relieving unnecessary burdens on power plant operators and regulatory staff. To achieve the potential benefits of risk-based configuration control, the risk models developed for nuclear power plants should be (1) flexible enough to effectively support necessary risk calculations, and (2) transparent enough to encourage their use by all parties. To address these needs, SCIENTECH, Inc., has developed the PC-based REVEAL W (formerly known as SMART). This graphic-oriented and user-friendly application software allows the user to develop transparent complex logic models based on the concept of the master plant logic diagram. The logic model is success-oriented and compact. The analytical capability built into REVEAL W is generic, so the software can support different types of risk-based evaluations, such as probabilistic safety assessment, accident sequence precursor analysis, design evaluation and configuration management. In this paper, we focus on the application of REVEAL W to support risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plants. (author)

Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

Science.gov (United States)

Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

2016-10-01

This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Sharma, Pavan K.; Santosh, T.V.; Hari Prasad, M.; Vaze, K.K.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Study looks into improving the consequence evaluation in risk based inspection. • Ways to revise the quantity factors used in qualitative approach. • New approach based on computational fluid dynamics along with probit mathematics. • Demonstrated this methodology along with a suitable case study for the said issue. - Abstract: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Consequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisation. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H 2 S based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the quantity of H 2 S released

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

1996-01-01

The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE...

Solid-phase extraction of copper(II) in water and food samples using silica gel modified with bis(3-aminopropyl)amine and determination by flame atomic absorption spectrometry.

Science.gov (United States)

Cagirdi, Duygu; Altundag, Hüseyin; Imamoglu, Mustafa; Tuzen, Mustafa

2014-01-01

A simple and selective separation and preconcentration method was developed for the determination of Cu(ll) ions. This method is based on adsorption of Cu(ll) ions from aqueous solution on a bis(3-aminopropyl)amine modified silica gel column and flame atomic absorption spectrometric determination after desorption. Various analytical parameters such as pH, type of eluent solution and its volume, flow rate of sample and eluent, and sample volume were optimized. Effects of some cation, anion, and transition metal ions on the recoveries of Cu(ll) ions were also investigated. Cu(ll) ions were quantitatively recovered at pH 6; 5.0 mL of 2 M HCI was used as the eluent. The preconcentration factor was found to be 150. The LOD was 0.12 microg/L for Cu(ll). The accuracy of the method was confirmed by analysis of Tea Leaves (INCT-TL-1) and Fish Protein (DORM-3) certified reference materials. The optimized method was applied to various water and food samples for the determination of Cu(ll).

A risk-based sensor placement methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

2008-01-01

A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

1989-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

Benefits to rare plants and highway safety from annual population reductions of a "native invader," white-tailed deer, in a Chicago-area woodland.

Science.gov (United States)

Engeman, Richard M; Guerrant, Travis; Dunn, Glen; Beckerman, Scott F; Anchor, Chris

2014-01-01

Overabundant white-tailed deer are one of the most serious threats to woodland plant communities in the Chicago area. Moreover, the abundant deer in a highly populated area causes economic harm and poses hazards to human safety through collisions with vehicles. The artificial conditions causing the overabundance and resulting consequences qualify the white-tailed deer in the Chicago area to be considered as "native invaders". We examined the benefits of culling deer at a Chicago-area woodland preserve by comparing browse rates on four endangered plant species from years before culling began with years with culling. We also examined deer-vehicle collision and traffic flow rates on area roads from years before culling began and years with culling to assess whether population reductions may have benefited road safety in the area. All four endangered plant species (three orchid species and sweet fern) had lower browse rates in years with culls, although the decreased browsing rates were statistically distinguishable for only two of the species (grass pink orchid and sweet fern). After first verifying that traffic flow rates did not decrease from pre-cull years to years with culls, we analyzed the Illinois Department of Transportation data from area roads based on deer-vehicle collisions causing >US$500 in damage and showed a one-third reduction in deer-vehicle collisions. An economic analysis showed a cost savings during the cull years of US$0.6 million for reducing browsing to just these four monitored plant species and the reduction in deer-vehicle collisions.

Risk-based performance indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

1987-01-01

The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

2009-03-01

This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

1991-01-01

A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michalopoulos Evangelos

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.

2010-01-01

Today, companies are required to be in control of the security of their IT assets. This is especially challenging in the presence of limited budgets and conflicting requirements. Here, we present Risk-Based Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (RiskREP), a method for managing IT security

Optimizing the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark by simulation – the project outline

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enøe, Claes

2012-01-01

. These control options included different options for emergency vaccination, zoning and culling. Optimal control/eradication strategies was evaluated based on costs, number of culled animals, epidemic duration and time to lift of restrictions on animal movements and trade. An important part of the project...

12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bendure, A.O.

1995-03-01

Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

Science.gov (United States)

Leitner, Jesse A.

2014-01-01

Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

Study of operational risk-based configuration control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

1991-08-01

This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

2017-06-01

Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

1987-01-01

The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

Science.gov (United States)

Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

2007-02-01

A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

1991-05-01

To assess the potential use of risk and reliability techniques for improving the effectiveness of the technical specifications to control plant operational risk, the Technical Specifications Branch of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated an effort to identify and evaluate alternative risk-based approaches that could bring greater risk perspective to these requirements. In the first phase four alternative approaches were identified and their characteristics were analyzed. Among these, the risk-based approach to technical specifications is the most promising approach for controlling plant operational risk using technical specifications. The second phase of the study concentrated on detailed characteristics of the real time risk-based approach. It is concluded that a real time risk-based approach to technical specifications has the potential to improve both plant safety and availability. 33 figs., 5 figs., 6 tabs

Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruud, Stian [Section for Control Systems, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Stian.Ruud@dnv.com; Mikkelsen, Age [Section for Lifting Appliances, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Age.Mikkelsen@dnv.com

2008-09-15

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented.

Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruud, Stian; Mikkelsen, Age

2008-01-01

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented

Event-based historical value-at-risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hogenboom, F.P.; Winter, Michael; Hogenboom, A.C.; Jansen, Milan; Frasincar, F.; Kaymak, U.

2012-01-01

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an important tool to assess portfolio risk. When calculating VaR based on historical stock return data, we hypothesize that this historical data is sensitive to outliers caused by news events in the sampled period. In this paper, we research whether the VaR accuracy can be

Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

Science.gov (United States)

van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

2014-02-01

Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and ...

Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

1992-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk

OpenAIRE

Dhar, Vasant; Lewis, Barry; Peters, James

1988-01-01

Within the academic and professional auditing communities, there has been growing concern about how to accurately assess the various risks associated with performing an audit. These risks are difficult to conceptualize in terms of numeric estimates. This article discusses the development of a prototype computational model (computer program) that assesses one of the major audit risks -- inherent risk. This program bases most of its inferencing activities on a qualitative model of a typical bus...

Economic epidemiology of avian influenza on smallholder poultry farms☆

Science.gov (United States)

Boni, Maciej F.; Galvani, Alison P.; Wickelgren, Abraham L.; Malani, Anup

2013-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is often controlled through culling of poultry. Compensating farmers for culled chickens or ducks facilitates effective culling and control of HPAI. However, ensuing price shifts can create incentives that alter the disease dynamics of HPAI. Farmers control certain aspects of the dynamics by setting a farm size, implementing infection control measures, and determining the age at which poultry are sent to market. Their decisions can be influenced by the market price of poultry which can, in turn, be set by policy makers during an HPAI outbreak. Here, we integrate these economic considerations into an epidemiological model in which epidemiological parameters are determined by an outside agent (the farmer) to maximize profit from poultry sales. Our model exhibits a diversity of behaviors which are sensitive to (i) the ability to identify infected poultry, (ii) the average price of infected poultry, (iii) the basic reproductive number of avian influenza, (iv) the effect of culling on the market price of poultry, (v) the effect of market price on farm size, and (vi) the effect of poultry density on disease transmission. We find that under certain market and epidemiological conditions, culling can increase farm size and the total number of HPAI infections. Our model helps to inform the optimization of public health outcomes that best weigh the balance between public health risk and beneficial economic outcomes for farmers. PMID:24161559

Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

2007-01-01

The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many, noti...

12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...) The bank must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is independent... management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk.... Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes, a bank subject to this appendix...

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sitima Innocent

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

Risk-based technical specifications program: Site interview results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andre, G.R.; Baker, A.J.; Johnson, R.L.

1991-08-01

The Electric Power Research Institute and Pacific Gas and Electric Company are sponsoring a program directed at improving Technical Specifications using risk-based methods. The major objectives of the program are to develop risk-based approaches to improve Technical Specifications and to develop an Interactive Risk Advisor (IRA) prototype. The IRA is envisioned as an interactive system that is available to plant personnel to assist in controlling plant operation. Use of an IRA is viewed as a method to improve plant availability while maintaining or improving plant safety. In support of the program, interviews were conducted at several PWR and BWR plant sites, to elicit opinions and information concerning risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications and IRA requirements. This report presents the results of these interviews, including the functional requirements of an IRA. 2 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

Risk based regulation: a convenient concept for legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seiler, J.H.

1998-01-01

Legislation and regulation concerning risk activities are traditionally based on deterministic safety measures. This may lead to inefficient results: sometimes the law requires safety measures which are - from an economic viewpoint - not justified because of their poor cost-effectiveness; sometimes it does not require safety measures although they would be very efficient. The risk based regulation approach wants to make the law more efficient and to get more safety at less costs. Legislation and regulation should be based on terms of risk rather than on deterministic rules. Risk should be expressed in quantitative terms and risk regulation should be based on the cost-effectiveness of safety measures. Thus a most efficient (in the sense of the economic analysis of the law) strategy for safety and environmental law could be established. The approach is economically reasonable and theoretically convincing. Its practical implementation however raises a lot of technical and legal questions. The project 'Risk Based Regulation' (1996-1999), sponsored by the Swiss National Fund for Scientific Research, intends to evaluate the practical feasibility of the approach from a technical and a legal view. It contains a general part which describes the risk based regulation approach and its legal and technical questions, case studies which try to practically implement the risk based regulation approach; the case studies are: storage and management of explosives in the army, storage and management of explosives for non-military purposes, safety at work, accident prevention in the non-professional field (mainly road accidents), fire protection, transportation of dangerous goods, waste disposal: traditional waste, waste disposal: radioactive waste, nuclear energy (reactor safety), a synthesis with recommendations for the future legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks. The paper presents the project and its preliminary results. (author)

76 FR 13902 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-15

... TRADE COMMISSION 16 CFR Parts 640 and 698 RIN R411009 Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing... respective risk-based pricing rules to require disclosure of credit scores and information relating to credit scores in risk-based pricing notices if a credit score of the consumer is used in setting the material...

Alternative approaches to risk-based technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.; Liner, R.T.; Lofgren, E.V.

1987-01-01

Four alternative risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications are identified. These are: a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) oriented approach; a reliability goal-oriented approach; an approach based on configuration control; a data-oriented approach. Based on preliminary results, the PRA-oriented approach, which has been developed further than the other approaches, seems to offer a logical, quantitative basis for setting Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) for some plant components and systems. The most attractive feature of this approach is that it directly links the AOTs and STIs with the risk associated with the operation of the plant. This would focus the plant operator's and the regulatory agency's attention on the most risk-significant components of the plant. A series of practical issues related to the level of detail and content of the plant PRAs, requirements for the review of these PRAs, and monitoring cf the plant's performance by the regulatory agency must be resolved before the approach could be implemented. Future efforts will examine the other three approaches and their practicality before firm conclusions are drawn regarding the viability of any of these approaches

Study on institutionalization of risk-informed performance-based regulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, M. G.; Hong, S. Y.; Seo, M. R. [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

2003-02-15

In this study, for the institutionalization of risk informed and performance based regulation in Korea, the latest technical movements of overseas countries are examined and reviewed. And the issues that was found when license change petition using risk information was submitted in Korean regulatory body are reviewed. Based on these review, the applicable areas to domestic situation will be found and proposed. This study can contribute to setting up the proper direction for the institutionalization of risk informed and performance based regulation.

Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

1996-01-01

In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

Risk-based remediation of polluted sites: A critical perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuppusamy, Saranya; Venkateswarlu, Kadiyala; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Mayilswami, Srinithi; Lee, Yong Bok

2017-11-01

Sites contaminated with chemical pollutants represent a growing challenge, and remediation of such lands is of international concern. Risk-based land management (RBLM) is an emerging approach that integrates risk assessment practices with more traditional site-specific investigations and remediation activities. Developing countries are yet to adopt RBLM strategies for remediation. RBLM is considered to be practical, scientifically defensible and cost-efficient. However, it is inherently limited by: firstly, the accuracy of risk assessment models used; secondly, ramifications of the fact that they are more likely to leave contamination in place; and thirdly, uncertainties involved and having to consider the total concentrations of all contaminants in soils that overestimate the potential risks from exposure to the contaminants. Consideration of contaminant bioavailability as the underlying basis for risk assessment and setting remediation goals of those contaminated lands that pose a risk to environmental and human health may lead to the development of a more sophisticated risk-based approach. However, employing the bioavailability concept in RBLM has not been extensively studied and/or legalized. This review highlights the extent of global land contamination, and the concept of risk-based assessment and management of contaminated sites including its advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, the concept of bioavailability-based RBLM strategy has been proposed, and the challenges of RBLM and the priority areas for future research are summarized. Thus, the present review may help achieve a better understanding and successful implementation of a sustainable bioavailability-based RBLM strategy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-based management of invading plant disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Hyatt-Twynam, Samuel R; Parnell, Stephen; Stutt, Richard O J H; Gottwald, Tim R; Gilligan, Christopher A; Cunniffe, Nik J

2017-05-01

Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida. We test risk-based control, which preferentially removes hosts expected to cause a high number of infections in the remaining host population. Removals then depend on past patterns of pathogen spread and host removal, which might be nontransparent to affected stakeholders. This motivates a variable radius strategy, which approximates risk-based control via removal radii that vary by location, but which are fixed in advance of any epidemic. Risk-based control outperforms variable radius control, which in turn outperforms constant radius removal. This result is robust to changes in disease spread parameters and initial patterns of susceptible host plants. However, efficiency degrades if epidemiological parameters are incorrectly characterised. Risk-based control including additional epidemiology can be used to improve disease management, but it requires good prior knowledge for optimal performance. This focuses attention on gaining maximal information from past epidemics, on understanding model transferability between locations and on adaptive management strategies that change over time. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M.

1995-01-01

The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities

Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

1995-12-31

The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

Risk assessment and model for community-based construction ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

It, therefore, becomes necessary to systematically manage uncertainty in community-based construction in order to increase the likelihood of meeting project objectives using necessary risk management strategies. Risk management, which is an iterative process due to the dynamic nature of many risks, follows three main ...

Epidemiological models to control the spread of information in marine mammals.

Science.gov (United States)

Schakner, Zachary A; Buhnerkempe, Michael G; Tennis, Mathew J; Stansell, Robert J; van der Leeuw, Bjorn K; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Blumstein, Daniel T

2016-12-14

Socially transmitted wildlife behaviours that create human-wildlife conflict are an emerging problem for conservation efforts, but also provide a unique opportunity to apply principles of infectious disease control to wildlife management. As an example, California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) have learned to exploit concentrations of migratory adult salmonids below the fish ladders at Bonneville Dam, impeding endangered salmonid recovery. Proliferation of this foraging behaviour in the sea lion population has resulted in a controversial culling programme of individual sea lions at the dam, but the impact of such culling remains unclear. To evaluate the effectiveness of current and alternative culling strategies, we used network-based diffusion analysis on a long-term dataset to demonstrate that social transmission is implicated in the increase in dam-foraging behaviour and then studied different culling strategies within an epidemiological model of the behavioural transmission data. We show that current levels of lethal control have substantially reduced the rate of social transmission, but failed to effectively reduce overall sea lion recruitment. Earlier implementation of culling could have substantially reduced the extent of behavioural transmission and, ultimately, resulted in fewer animals being culled. Epidemiological analyses offer a promising tool to understand and control socially transmissible behaviours. © 2016 The Author(s).

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

Science.gov (United States)

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jidong Chen

2015-12-01

Full Text Available With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions. To extend the fraud risk prevention ability to external customers, Alibaba also built up a big data based fraud prevention product called AntBuckler. AntBuckler aims to identify and prevent all flavors of malicious behaviors with flexibility and intelligence for online merchants and banks. By combining large amount data of Alibaba and customers', AntBuckler uses the RAIN score engine to quantify risk levels of users or transactions for fraud prevention. It also has a user-friendly visualization UI with risk scores, top reasons and fraud connections.

Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs. equation-based Framingham models: significant implications for clinical care.

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, William J; Polansky, Jesse M; Boscardin, W John; Fung, Kathy Z; Steinman, Michael A

2010-11-01

US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20-79 from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having "moderate" risk (20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25-46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions of Americans into risk groups for which guidelines recommend different treatment strategies.

Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Velthuis, A.G.J.

2014-01-01

Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process

LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jing

2017-04-01

This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.

Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

1996-01-01

Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operations (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analyses and engineering judgments. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant-specific Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs). The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research sponsored research to develop systematic, risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. A handbook of methods summarizing such risk-based approaches has been completed in 1994. It is expected that this handbook will provide valuable input to NRC's present work in developing guidance for using PRA in risk-informed regulation. The handbook addresses reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenance

PENGARUH PELAKSANAAN RISK BASED INTERNAL AUDITING TERHADAP PENCEGAHAN FRAUD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rozmita Dewi Yuniarti Rozali

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This study aims to determine the effect of implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on internal audit Inspection Office Bank BRI Bandung Region. The sample used by 18 internal auditors in Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region saturated sampling method. Based on calculation of simple regression analysis obtained result that every increase of implementation of risk based internal auditing (X will lead to increase fraud prevention (Y. It shows that there is a positive influence between the implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on the internal audit of Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region.

Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

2009-01-01

Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

Risk-based regulation: A regulatory perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scarborough, J.C.

1993-01-01

In the early development of regulations for nuclear power plants, risk was implicitly considered through qualitative assessments and engineering reliability principles and practices. Examples included worst case analysis, defense in depth, and the single failure criterion. However, the contributions of various systems, structures, components and operator actions to plant safety were not explicitly assessed since a methodology for this purpose had not been developed. As a consequence of the TMI accident, the use of more quantitative risk methodology and information in regulation such as probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) increased. The use of both qualitative and quantitative consideration of risk in regulation has been a set of regulations and regulatory guides and practices that ensure adequate protection of public health and safety. Presently, the development of PRA techniques has developed to the point that safety goals, expressed in terms of risk, have been established to help guide further regulatory decision making. This paper presents the personal opinions of the author as regards the use of risk today in nuclear power plant regulation, areas of further information needs, and necessary plans for moving toward a more systematic use of risk-based information in regulatory initiatives in the future

Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Yuan

2018-04-01

GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

Will Culling White-Tailed Deer Prevent Lyme Disease?

Science.gov (United States)

Kugeler, K J; Jordan, R A; Schulze, T L; Griffith, K S; Mead, P S

2016-08-01

White-tailed deer play an important role in the ecology of Lyme disease. In the United States, where the incidence and geographic range of Lyme disease continue to increase, reduction of white-tailed deer populations has been proposed as a means of preventing human illness. The effectiveness of this politically sensitive prevention method is poorly understood. We summarize and evaluate available evidence regarding the effect of deer reduction on vector tick abundance and human disease incidence. Elimination of deer from islands and other isolated settings can have a substantial impact on the reproduction of blacklegged ticks, while reduction short of complete elimination has yielded mixed results. To date, most studies have been conducted in ecologic situations that are not representative to the vast majority of areas with high human Lyme disease risk. Robust evidence linking deer control to reduced human Lyme disease risk is lacking. Currently, there is insufficient evidence to recommend deer population reduction as a Lyme disease prevention measure, except in specific ecologic circumstances. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

2015-01-01

Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Septiani

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs. 

Risk based maintenance to increase safety and decrease costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, J.H.

2000-01-01

Risk-Based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants for the last eight years by a team working through the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development (CRTD). System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis or Probabilistic Safety Analysis developed to meet the Individual Plant Evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for the Maintenance Rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low risk-significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. Pilot studies on risk-based testing indicate that about 60% of pumps and 25 to 30% of valves in plants are high safety-significant The reduction in inspection and testing reduces the person-rem exposure and resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publications by the ASME CRTD which are referenced. (author)

WTS - Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) -

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Transportation — The Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) application supports a new SMS-structured process designed to focus on safety oversight of systems and processes rather than...

RiskREP : risk-based security requirements elicitation and prioritization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herrmann, A.; Morali, A.; Etalle, S.; Wieringa, R.J.

2011-01-01

Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement "good-enough security" but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

2011-01-01

Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

1990-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

1989-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Science.gov (United States)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-01-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

2016-04-19

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Application of risk-based inspection methods for cryogenic equipment

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2016-01-01

Risk-based Inspection (RBI) is widely applied across the world as part of Pressure Equipment Integrity Management, especially in the oil and gas industry, to generally reduce costs compared with time-based approaches and assist in assigning resources to the most critical equipment. One of the challenges in RBI is to apply it for low temperature and cryogenic applications, as there are usually no degradation mechanisms by which to determine a suitable probability of failure in the overall risk assessment. However, the assumptions used for other degradation mechanisms can be adopted to determine, qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, a consequence of failure within the risk assessment. This can assist in providing a consistent basis for the assumptions used in ensuring adequate process safety barriers and determining suitable sizing of relief devices. This presentation will discuss risk-based inspection in the context of cryogenic safety, as well as present some of the considerations for the risk assessme...

Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tervonen, Tommi, E-mail: t.p.tervonen@rug.n [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor, E-mail: igor.linkov@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Figueira, Jose Rui, E-mail: figueira@ist.utl.p [Technical University of Lisbon, CEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies, Instituto Superior Tecnico (Portugal); Steevens, Jeffery, E-mail: jeffery.a.steevens@usace.army.mil; Chappell, Mark, E-mail: mark.a.chappell@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Merad, Myriam, E-mail: myriam.merad@ineris.f [INERIS BP 2, Societal Management of Risks Unit/Accidental Risks Division (France)

2009-05-15

Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

2004-04-15

Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

CAUSAS DE DESCARTE DE VACAS DA RAÇA HOLANDESA CONFINADAS EM UMA POPULAÇÃO DE 2.083 BOVINOS (2000–2003 CULLING CAUSES IN CONFINED HOLLAND BREED COWS IN A POPULATION OF 2083 BOVINES (2000–2003

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luiz Antônio Franco Silva

2008-07-01

Full Text Available

Avaliaram-se causas de descarte de vacas Holandesas manejadas intensivamente, em cinco propriedades rurais, em um rebanho de 2.083 animais, no período compreendido entre janeiro de 2000 a janeiro de 2003. As informações obtidas foram classificadas em categorias, procedendo-se ao cálculo da respectiva freqüência em percentuais. Foram descartados 296 animais (14,2% durante o período estudado, sendo que 82 (27,7% descartes ocorreram em virtude de alterações no sistema reprodutor, 55 (18,5% por problemas no sistema locomotor, 51 (17,2% em decorrência de enfermidades na glândula mamária, 7 (2,6% pela ocorrência de problemas digestivos, 3 (2,6% por doenças metabólicas, 2 (0,7% em razão de doenças respiratórias, 1 (0,7% em conseqüência de fotossensibilização e 95 (32% por motivos diversos, como idade avançada e comercialização. Considerou-se indispensável a adoção de medidas efetivas no controle dos distúrbios reprodutivos, locomotores e da glândula mamária para a manutenção dos animais no rebanho e, conseqüentemente, da lucratividade do negócio.

PALAVRAS-CHAVES: Causas de descarte, confinamento, vacas.

12 CFR 652.65 - Risk-based capital stress test.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...) You will use Corporation loan-level data to implement the credit risk component of the risk-based... Service corporate income tax schedule, as further described in appendix A to this subpart. (b) Credit risk. The credit risk part estimates loan losses during a period of sustained economic stress. (1) For each...

Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer variation range assessment based on various radon risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Jing

2017-01-01

To address public concerns regarding radon risk and variations in risk estimates based on various risk models available in the literature, lifetime lung cancer risks were calculated with five well-known risk models using more recent Canadian vital statistics (5-year averages from 2008 to 2012). Variations in population risk estimation among various models were assessed. The results showed that the Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer can vary from 5.0 to 17% for men and 5.1 to 18% for women based on different radon risk models. Averaged over the estimates from various risk models with better radon dosimetry, 13% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian males and 14% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian females were attributable to long-term indoor radon exposure. (authors)

Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cloninger, T.H.

1997-01-01

This presentation was made by an executive in the utility which operates the South Texas Project reactors, and summarizes their perspective on probabilistic safety analysis, risk-based operation, and risk-based regulation. They view it as a tool to help them better apply their resources to maintain the level of safety necessary to protect the public health and safety. South Texas served as one of the pilot plants for the application of risk-based regulation to the maintenance rule. The author feels that the process presents opportunities as well as challenges. Among the opportunities is the involvement of more people in the process, and the sense of investment they take in the decisions, in addition to the insight they can offer. In the area of challenges there is the need for better understanding of how to apply what already is known on problems, rather than essentially reinventing the wheel to address problems. Research is needed to better understand when some events are not truly of a significant safety concern. The demarcation between deterministic decisions and the appropriate application of risk-based decisions must be better defined, for the sake of the operator as well as the public observing plant operation

Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

Science.gov (United States)

Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

2017-06-01

In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

The risk-based approach to anti-money laundering: problems and solutions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonova, Anna

2011-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper, which is a part of a PhD thesis, is to detect problems associated with the risk-based approach to anti-money laundering (AML), as well as present ways to improve the risk-based approach. Design/methodology/approach – The method is law and economics. The Ph......D thesis itself is also based on a comparative analysis of the Danish and British AML regimes. Findings – The main findings are: failure to develop adequate risk-based AML systems, taking into account varying levels of money laundering risk, is not only to be considered in the context of legal risk...... but also and more importantly in the context of integrity risk; anti-money laundering (AML) has to be made part of financial and non-financial institutions' corporate social responsibility policies; the Risk Analysis Manual provided by the Central Bank of The Netherlands lists very specific...

Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

OpenAIRE

Chen, Jidong; Tao, Ye; Wang, Haoran; Chen, Tao

2015-01-01

With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions....

Options for improving hazardous waste cleanups using risk-based criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elcock, D.

1995-01-01

This paper explores how risk- and technology-based criteria are currently used in the RCRA and CERCLA cleanup programs. It identifies ways in which risk could be further incorporated into RCRA and CERCLA cleanup requirements and the implications of risk-based approaches. The more universal use of risk assessment as embodied in the risk communication and risk improvement bills before Congress is not addressed. Incorporating risk into the laws and regulations governing hazardous waste cleanup, will allow the use of the best scientific information available to further the goal of environmental protection in the United States while containing costs. and may help set an example for other countries that may be developing cleanup programs, thereby contributing to enhanced global environmental management

Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kenley, C. Robert; Collins, John W.; Beck, John M.; Heydt, Harold J.; Garcia, Chad B.

2001-01-01

This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.

An Integrated Risk Index Model Based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic for Underground Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Fayaz

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Available space in congested cities is getting scarce due to growing urbanization in the recent past. The utilization of underground space is considered as a solution to the limited space in smart cities. The numbers of underground facilities are growing day by day in the developing world. Typical underground facilities include the transit subway, parking lots, electric lines, water supply and sewer lines. The likelihood of the occurrence of accidents due to underground facilities is a random phenomenon. To avoid any accidental loss, a risk assessment method is required to conduct the continuous risk assessment and report any abnormality before it happens. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical fuzzy inference based model for under-ground risk assessment. The proposed hierarchical fuzzy inference architecture reduces the total number of rules from the rule base. Rule reduction is important because the curse of dimensionality damages the transparency and interpretation as it is very tough to understand and justify hundreds or thousands of fuzzy rules. The computation time also increases as rules increase. The proposed model takes 175 rules having eight input parameters to compute the risk index, and the conventional fuzzy logic requires 390,625 rules, having the same number of input parameters to compute risk index. Hence, the proposed model significantly reduces the curse of dimensionality. Rule design for fuzzy logic is also a tedious task. In this paper, we have also introduced new rule schemes, namely maximum rule-based and average rule-based; both schemes can be used interchangeably according to the logic needed for rule design. The experimental results show that the proposed method is a virtuous choice for risk index calculation where the numbers of variables are greater.

Risk-based indicators of Canadians' exposures to environmental carcinogens.

Science.gov (United States)

Setton, Eleanor; Hystad, Perry; Poplawski, Karla; Cheasley, Roslyn; Cervantes-Larios, Alejandro; Keller, C Peter; Demers, Paul A

2013-02-12

Tools for estimating population exposures to environmental carcinogens are required to support evidence-based policies to reduce chronic exposures and associated cancers. Our objective was to develop indicators of population exposure to selected environmental carcinogens that can be easily updated over time, and allow comparisons and prioritization between different carcinogens and exposure pathways. We employed a risk assessment-based approach to produce screening-level estimates of lifetime excess cancer risk for selected substances listed as known carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Estimates of lifetime average daily intake were calculated using population characteristics combined with concentrations (circa 2006) in outdoor air, indoor air, dust, drinking water, and food and beverages from existing monitoring databases or comprehensive literature reviews. Intake estimates were then multiplied by cancer potency factors from Health Canada, the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment to estimate lifetime excess cancer risks associated with each substance and exposure pathway. Lifetime excess cancer risks in excess of 1 per million people are identified as potential priorities for further attention. Based on data representing average conditions circa 2006, a total of 18 carcinogen-exposure pathways had potential lifetime excess cancer risks greater than 1 per million, based on varying data quality. Carcinogens with moderate to high data quality and lifetime excess cancer risk greater than 1 per million included benzene, 1,3-butadiene and radon in outdoor air; benzene and radon in indoor air; and arsenic and hexavalent chromium in drinking water. Important data gaps were identified for asbestos, hexavalent chromium and diesel exhaust in outdoor and indoor air, while little data were available to assess risk for substances in dust, food and beverages. The ability to

Post-traumatic stress disorder in participants of foot-and-mouth disease epidemic control in Miyazaki, Japan, in 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Hibi, Juri; Kurosawa, Aiko; Watanabe, Takuto; Kadowaki, Hazumu; Watari, Michiko; Makita, Kohei

2015-08-01

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred in Miyazaki, Japan, in 2010, and 290,000 animals were culled. This paper describes the mental distress of the volunteers who had been dispatched to Miyazaki for disease control two years after the epidemic. It also assesses risk factors for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). A participatory appraisal and self-administered questionnaire survey were conducted in 2012 for those who were dispatched to Miyazaki in 2010. The Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R) was used as an indicator of PTSD, and univariate and multivariable analyses were performed. Of the 875 respondents, 1.3% had higher IES-R scores than the cut-off point (25), which is suggestive of PTSD. Mental stresses during and soon after FMD control and after two years were described. Four risk factors associated with high IES-R scores were found: transporting culled animals (Pstress during FMD control (Pstress at the time of the survey (Pstress two years later. Public services should provide an opportunity for them to consult with mental health specialists. These findings should be used to better prepare workers who deal with infectious diseases of animals, especially when they must be culled. The establishment of a collaborative framework between veterinary and mental health services is recommended.

How effective is dog culling in controlling zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis? a critical evaluation of the science, politics and ethics behind this public health policy Quanto é efetivo o abate de cães para o controle do calazar zoonótico? uma avaliação crítica da ciência, política e ética por trás desta política de saúde pública

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Henrique Nery Costa

2011-04-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Zoonotic kala-azar, a lethal disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania is considered out of control in parts of the world, particularly in Brazil, where transmission has spread to cities throughout most of the territory and mortality presents an increasing trend. Although a highly debatable measure, the Brazilian government regularly culls seropositive dogs to control the disease. Since control is failing, critical analysis concerning the actions focused on the canine reservoir was conducted. METHODS: In a review of the literature, a historical perspective focusing mainly on comparisons between the successful Chinese and Soviet strategies and the Brazilian approach is presented. In addition, analyses of the principal studies regarding the role of dogs as risk factors to humans and of the main intervention studies regarding the efficacy of the dog killing strategy were undertaken. Brazilian political reaction to a recently published systematic review that concluded that the dog culling program lacked efficiency and its effect on public policy were also reviewed. RESULTS: No firm evidence of the risk conferred by the presence of dogs to humans was verified; on the contrary, a lack of scientific support for the policy of killing dogs was confirmed. A bias for distorting scientific data towards maintaining the policy of culling animals was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Since there is no evidence that dog culling diminishes visceral leishmaniasis transmission, it should be abandoned as a control measure. Ethical considerations have been raised regarding distorting scientific results and the killing of animals despite minimal or absent scientific evidenceINTRODUÇÃO: O calazar zoonótico, uma doença fatal causada por protozoários do gênero Leishmania, é considerada fora de controle, particularmente no Brasil, onde se urbaniza e a letalidade aumenta. Apesar de ser uma medida muito controversa, o governo brasileiro abate c

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

to oil and gas structures. In addition, condition monitoring systems are often available, and the information should be taken into account when making decisions. In this thesis, methods for risk-based maintenance planning using Bayesian methods are investigated, with the aim of making optimal decisions......, but presently maintenance is not planned using advanced methods taking all available information into account in a consistent manner. Maintenance decisions can be made based on risk-based methods, where the total expected life cycle costs are minimized. Methods have been developed for assessing the corrective...... considering all available information. First, a theoretical damage model is formulated, the model is then updated using condition monitoring data, and the updated model is used as basis for risk-based decision making. Several approaches for solving the decision problems have been considered: various types...

Waste-acceptance criteria and risk-based thinking for radioactive-waste classification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowenthal, M.D.

1998-01-01

The US system of radioactive-waste classification and its development provide a reference point for the discussion of risk-based thinking in waste classification. The official US system is described and waste-acceptance criteria for disposal sites are introduced because they constitute a form of de facto waste classification. Risk-based classification is explored and it is found that a truly risk-based system is context-dependent: risk depends not only on the waste-management activity but, for some activities such as disposal, it depends on the specific physical context. Some of the elements of the official US system incorporate risk-based thinking, but like many proposed alternative schemes, the physical context of disposal is ignored. The waste-acceptance criteria for disposal sites do account for this context dependence and could be used as a risk-based classification scheme for disposal. While different classes would be necessary for different management activities, the waste-acceptance criteria would obviate the need for the current system and could better match wastes to disposal environments saving money or improving safety or both

The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

OpenAIRE

Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim; Cockburn, Andrew; Dekant, Wolfgang; Hepburn, Paul; Houben, Geert F.; König, Jürgen; Nauta, Maarten; Schuermans, Jeroen; Bánáti, Diána

2015-01-01

BackgroundFood legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health.Scope and approachThe advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-ba...

Risk-based inspection in the context of nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soares, Wellington A.; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Rabello, Emerson G., E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: egr@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2015-07-01

Nuclear power plant owners have to consider several aspects like safety, availability, costs and radiation exposure during operation of nuclear power plants. They also need to demonstrate to regulatory bodies that risk assessment and inspection planning processes are being implemented in effective and appropriate manner. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is a methodology that, unlike time-based inspection, involves a quantitative assessment of both failure probability and consequence associated with each safety-related item. A correctly implemented RBI program classifies individual equipment by its risks and prioritizes inspection efforts based on this classification. While in traditional deterministic approach, the inspection frequencies are constant, in the RBI approach the inspection interval for each item depends on the risk level. Regularly, inspection intervals from RBI result in risk levels lower or equal than deterministic inspection intervals. According to the literature, RBI solutions improve integrity and reduce costs through a more effective inspection. Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI) is the equivalent term used in the nuclear area. Its use in nuclear power plants around world is briefly reviewed in this paper. Identification of practice methodologies for performing risk-based analyses presented in this paper can help both Brazilian nuclear power plant operator and regulatory body in evaluating the RI-ISI technique feasibility as a tool for optimizing inspections within nuclear plants. (author)

Risk-based inspection in the context of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, Wellington A.; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Rabello, Emerson G.

2015-01-01

Nuclear power plant owners have to consider several aspects like safety, availability, costs and radiation exposure during operation of nuclear power plants. They also need to demonstrate to regulatory bodies that risk assessment and inspection planning processes are being implemented in effective and appropriate manner. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is a methodology that, unlike time-based inspection, involves a quantitative assessment of both failure probability and consequence associated with each safety-related item. A correctly implemented RBI program classifies individual equipment by its risks and prioritizes inspection efforts based on this classification. While in traditional deterministic approach, the inspection frequencies are constant, in the RBI approach the inspection interval for each item depends on the risk level. Regularly, inspection intervals from RBI result in risk levels lower or equal than deterministic inspection intervals. According to the literature, RBI solutions improve integrity and reduce costs through a more effective inspection. Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI) is the equivalent term used in the nuclear area. Its use in nuclear power plants around world is briefly reviewed in this paper. Identification of practice methodologies for performing risk-based analyses presented in this paper can help both Brazilian nuclear power plant operator and regulatory body in evaluating the RI-ISI technique feasibility as a tool for optimizing inspections within nuclear plants. (author)

Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specification requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

1994-01-01

Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: Quantitatively evaluate the risk and justify changes based on objective risk arguments; Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The US NRC Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of Technical Specification requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

1993-01-01

Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: quantitatively evaluate the risk impact and justify changes based on objective risk arguments. Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

Risk-Based Educational Accountability in Dutch Primary Education

Science.gov (United States)

Timmermans, A. C.; de Wolf, I. F.; Bosker, R. J.; Doolaard, S.

2015-01-01

A recent development in educational accountability is a risk-based approach, in which intensity and frequency of school inspections vary across schools to make educational accountability more efficient and effective by enabling inspectorates to focus on organizations at risk. Characteristics relevant in predicting which schools are "at risk…

Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

Science.gov (United States)

Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

2014-12-01

Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through ris based insurance premiums: trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Hei, Fangliang

2012-05-01

Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

1996-01-01

Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an 'expert panel.' The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC's increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the open-quotes expert panelclose quotes and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate

Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

1996-12-01

Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an `expert panel.` The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC`s increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the {open_quotes}expert panel{close_quotes} and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate.

Development of a risk-based approach to Hanford site cleanup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hesser, W.A.

1996-01-01

In response to a request from Mr. Thomas Grumbly, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environmental Management, the Hanford Site contractors developed a set of risk-based cleanup strategies that (1) protect the public, workers, and environment from unacceptable risks; (2) are executable technically; and (3) fit within currently expected annual funding profiles. These strategies were developed because (1) the U.S. Department of Energy and Hanford Site budgets are being reduced, (2) stakeholders are dissatisfied with the perceived rate of cleanup, (3) the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Department of Energy are increasingly focusing on risk and risk-reduction activities, (4) the present strategy is not integrated across the Site and is inconsistent in its treatment of similar hazards, (5) the present cleanup strategy is not cost-effective from a risk-reduction or future land use perspective, and (6) the milestones and activities in the Tri-Party Agreement cannot be achieved with an anticipated funding of 1.05 billion dollars, or less, annually. This analysis produced a framework and a set of tools that are available for dealing with changes to anticipated funding levels, changes in risk cleanup standards, and Congressional initiatives and inquiries. The tools include land-supply curves, cost profiles, risk profiles, mortgage reduction curves, and minimum operations costs. This paper describes the methodology used to develop mortgage-based, risk-based, and land-based cleanup strategies and how those strategies differ in terms of the work to be performed, its sequence, and the resulting end states

Can an Internet-based health risk assessment highlight problems of heart disease risk factor awareness? A cross-sectional analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dickerson, Justin B; McNeal, Catherine J; Tsai, Ginger; Rivera, Cathleen M; Smith, Matthew Lee; Ohsfeldt, Robert L; Ory, Marcia G

2014-04-18

Health risk assessments are becoming more popular as a tool to conveniently and effectively reach community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for serious chronic conditions such as coronary heart disease (CHD). The use of such instruments to improve adults' risk factor awareness and concordance with clinically measured risk factor values could be an opportunity to advance public health knowledge and build effective interventions. The objective of this study was to determine if an Internet-based health risk assessment can highlight important aspects of agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors for community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for CHD. Data from an Internet-based cardiovascular health risk assessment (Heart Aware) administered to community-dwelling adults at 127 clinical sites were analyzed. Respondents were recruited through individual hospital marketing campaigns, such as media advertising and print media, found throughout inpatient and outpatient facilities. CHD risk factors from the Framingham Heart Study were examined. Weighted kappa statistics were calculated to measure interrater agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors. Weighted kappa statistics were then calculated for each sample by strata of overall 10-year CHD risk. Three samples were drawn based on strategies for treating missing data: a listwise deleted sample, a pairwise deleted sample, and a multiple imputation (MI) sample. The MI sample (n=16,879) was most appropriate for addressing missing data. No CHD risk factor had better than marginal interrater agreement (κ>.60). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) exhibited suboptimal interrater agreement that deteriorated (eg, κInternet-based health risk assessments such as Heart Aware may contribute to public health surveillance, but they must address selection bias of Internet-based recruitment methods.

Risk based decision tool for space exploration missions

Science.gov (United States)

Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steve; Moran, Terrence

2003-01-01

This paper presents an approach and corresponding tool to assess and analyze the risks involved in a mission during the pre-phase A design process. This approach is based on creating a risk template for each subsystem expert involved in the mission design process and defining appropriate interactions between the templates.

Application of risk-based methodologies to prioritize safety resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Hosler, J.

1993-01-01

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) started a program entitled risk-based prioritization in 1992. The purpose of this program is to provide generic technical support to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of operations and maintenance (O ampersand M) cost control using state-of-the-art risk methods. The approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. Specifically, those items or events that have high risk significance would receive the most attention, while those with little risk content would command fewer resources. As quantified in a companion paper,close-quote the potential O ampersand M cost reduction inherent in this approach is very large. Furthermore, risk-based methods should also lead to safety improvements. This paper outlines the way that the EPRI technical work complements the technical, policy, and regulatory initiatives taken by others in the industry and provides an example of the approach as used to prioritize motor-operated valve (MOV) testing in response to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Generic Letter 89-10

Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

1992-01-01

When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

12 CFR 652.100 - Audit of the risk-based capital stress test.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Audit of the risk-based capital stress test... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.100 Audit of the risk-based capital stress test. You must have a qualified, independent external auditor review...

Handbook of methods for risk-based analyses of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

1994-12-01

Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while a few may not be conducive to safety. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research has sponsored research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. This handbook summarizes these risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), scheduled or preventive maintenance, action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), and management of plant configurations resulting from outages of systems, or components. For each topic, the handbook summarizes analytic methods with data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and gives examples of evaluations

Handbook of methods for risk-based analyses of technical specifications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Mankamo, T. [Avaplan Oy, Espoo (Finland); Vesely, W.E. [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States)

1994-12-01

Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while a few may not be conducive to safety. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research has sponsored research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. This handbook summarizes these risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), scheduled or preventive maintenance, action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), and management of plant configurations resulting from outages of systems, or components. For each topic, the handbook summarizes analytic methods with data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and gives examples of evaluations.

Guidelines for Risk-Based Changeover of Biopharma Multi-Product Facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Lynch, Rob; Barabani, David; Bellorado, Kathy; Canisius, Peter; Heathcote, Doug; Johnson, Alan; Wyman, Ned; Parry, Derek Willison

2018-01-01

In multi-product biopharma facilities, the protection from product contamination due to the manufacture of multiple products simultaneously is paramount to assure product quality. To that end, the use of traditional changeover methods (elastomer change-out, full sampling, etc.) have been widely used within the industry and have been accepted by regulatory agencies. However, with the endorsement of Quality Risk Management (1), the use of risk-based approaches may be applied to assess and continuously improve established changeover processes. All processes, including changeover, can be improved with investment (money/resources), parallel activities, equipment design improvements, and standardization. However, processes can also be improved by eliminating waste. For product changeover, waste is any activity not needed for the new process or that does not provide added assurance of the quality of the subsequent product. The application of a risk-based approach to changeover aligns with the principles of Quality Risk Management. Through the use of risk assessments, the appropriate changeover controls can be identified and controlled to assure product quality is maintained. Likewise, the use of risk assessments and risk-based approaches may be used to improve operational efficiency, reduce waste, and permit concurrent manufacturing of products. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

Strengthening air traffic safety management by moving from outcome-based towards risk-based evaluation of runway incursions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stroeve, Sybert H.; Som, Pradip; Doorn, Bas A. van; Bakker, G.J.

2016-01-01

Current safety management of aerodrome operations uses judgements of severity categories to evaluate runway incursions. Incident data show a small minority of severe incursions and a large majority of less severe incursions. We show that these severity judgements are mainly based upon the outcomes of runway incursions, in particular on the closest distances attained. As such, the severity-based evaluation leads to coincidental safety management feedback, wherein causes and risk implications of runway incursions are not well considered. In this paper we present a new framework for the evaluation of runway incursions, which effectively uses all runway incursions, which judges same types of causes similarly, and which structures causes and risk implications. The framework is based on risks of scenarios associated with the initiation of runway incursions. As a basis an inventory of scenarios is provided, which can represent almost all runway incursions involving a conflict with an aircraft. A main step in the framework is the assessment of the conditional probability of a collision given a runway incursion scenario. This can be effectively achieved for large sets of scenarios by agent-based dynamic risk modelling. The results provide detailed feedback on risks of runway incursion scenarios, thus enabling effective safety management. - Highlights: • Current evaluation of runway incursions is primarily based on their outcomes. • A new framework assesses collision risk given initiation of runway incursions. • Agent-based dynamic risk modelling can evaluate the risks of many scenarios. • A developed scenario inventory can represent almost all runway incursions. • The framework provides detailed feedback to safety management.

Health-Based Capitation Risk Adjustment in Minnesota Public Health Care Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Gifford, Gregory A.; Edwards, Kevan R.; Knutson, David J.

2004-01-01

This article documents the history and implementation of health-based capitation risk adjustment in Minnesota public health care programs, and identifies key implementation issues. Capitation payments in these programs are risk adjusted using an historical, health plan risk score, based on concurrent risk assessment. Phased implementation of capitation risk adjustment for these programs began January 1, 2000. Minnesota's experience with capitation risk adjustment suggests that: (1) implementation can accelerate encounter data submission, (2) administrative decisions made during implementation can create issues that impact payment model performance, and (3) changes in diagnosis data management during implementation may require changes to the payment model. PMID:25372356

Likelihood ratio-based integrated personal risk assessment of type 2 diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Noriko; Htun, Nay Chi; Daimon, Makoto; Tamiya, Gen; Kato, Takeo; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa; Muramatsu, Masaaki

2014-01-01

To facilitate personalized health care for multifactorial diseases, risks of genetic and clinical/environmental factors should be assessed together for each individual in an integrated fashion. This approach is possible with the likelihood ratio (LR)-based risk assessment system, as this system can incorporate manifold tests. We examined the usefulness of this system for assessing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Our system employed 29 genetic susceptibility variants, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension as risk factors whose LRs can be estimated from openly available T2D association data for the Japanese population. The pretest probability was set at a sex- and age-appropriate population average of diabetes prevalence. The classification performance of our LR-based risk assessment was compared to that of a non-invasive screening test for diabetes called TOPICS (with score based on age, sex, family history, smoking, BMI, and hypertension) using receiver operating characteristic analysis with a community cohort (n = 1263). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the LR-based assessment and TOPICS was 0.707 (95% CI 0.665-0.750) and 0.719 (0.675-0.762), respectively. These AUCs were much higher than that of a genetic risk score constructed using the same genetic susceptibility variants, 0.624 (0.574-0.674). The use of ethnically matched LRs is necessary for proper personal risk assessment. In conclusion, although LR-based integrated risk assessment for T2D still requires additional tests that evaluate other factors, such as risks involved in missing heritability, our results indicate the potential usability of LR-based assessment system and stress the importance of stratified epidemiological investigations in personalized medicine.

12 CFR 956.4 - Risk-based capital requirement for investments.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement for investments... OFF-BALANCE SHEET ITEMS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK INVESTMENTS § 956.4 Risk-based capital requirement for investments. Each Bank shall hold retained earnings plus general allowance for losses as support for the...

12 CFR 955.6 - Risk-based capital requirement for acquired member assets.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... losses as support for the credit risk of all AMA estimated by the Bank to represent a credit risk that is...) Recalculation of credit enhancement. For risk-based capital purposes, each Bank shall recalculate the estimated... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement for acquired...

A simple data base for identification of risk profiles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Munganahalli, D.

1996-12-31

Sedco Forex is a drilling contractor that operates approximately 80 rigs on land and offshore worldwide. The HSE management system developed by Sedco Forex is an effort to prevent accidents and minimize losses. An integral part of the HSE management system is establishing risk profiles and thereby minimizing risk and reducing loss exposures. Risk profiles are established based on accident reports, potential accident reports and other risk identification reports (RIR) like the Du Pont STOP system. A rig could fill in as many as 30 accident reports, 30 potential accident reports and 500 STOP cards each year. Statistics are important for an HSE management system, since they are indicators of success or failure of HSE systems. It is however difficult to establish risk profiles based on statistical information, unless tools are available at the rig site to aid with the analysis. Risk profiles are then used to identify important areas in the operation that may require specific attention to minimize the loss exposure. Programs to address the loss exposure can then be identified and implemented with either a local or corporate approach. In January 1995, Sedco Forex implemented a uniform HSE Database on all the rigs worldwide. In one year companywide, the HSE database would contain information on approximately 500 accident and potential accident reports, and 10,000 STOP cards. This paper demonstrates the salient features of the database and describes how it has helped in establishing key risk profiles. It also shows a recent example of how risk profiles have been established at the corporate level and used to identify the key contributing factors to hands and finger injuries. Based on this information, a campaign was launched to minimize the frequency of occurrence and associated loss attributed to hands and fingers accidents.

AHP-based risk analysis of energy performance contracting projects in Russia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garbuzova-Schlifter, Maria; Madlener, Reinhard

2016-01-01

Understanding and properly managing risks that could potentially affect the target- and performance-based profits of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects are essential. It is particularly important for the establishment and success of energy service companies (ESCOs) acting in the vulnerable environment of the vast but highly energy-inefficient Russian market. This study systematically explores common risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects executed in three Russian sectors: (1) industrial; (2) housing and communal services; and (3) public. Several interviews with the Russian EPC experts were accomplished and a qualitative risk assessment by using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach. The data were obtained from a web-based questionnaire survey conducted among Russian EPC project executors. For each focus sector, a specific preference-based ranking of the identified risk factors and causes of risk was derived. The AHP results show that causes of risk related to the financial and regulatory aspects contribute most to the riskiness of EPC projects performed in all three focus sectors in Russia, calling for the special attention of EPC policy- and business-makers. Due to sectorial particularities and different actors involved, we conclude that there is a need for elaboration of sector-specific contractual schemes for EPC projects. - Highlights: • AHP- and survey-based study of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects in Russia. • Main risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects are investigated. • In practice, lack of a feasible risk management approach in EPC projects. • Regulatory and financial risks contribute most to the EPC projects’ riskiness. • Elaboration of the sector-specific EPC project contractual scheme is required.

A performance-oriented and risk-based regulation for containment testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dey, M.

1994-01-01

In August 1992, the NRC initiated a major initiative to develop requirements for containment testing that are less prescriptive, and more performance-oriented and risk-based. This action was a result of public comments and several studies that concluded that the economic burden of certain, present containment testing requirements are not commensurate with their safety benefits. The rulemaking will include consideration of relaxing the allowable containment leakage rate, increasing the interval for the integrated containment test, and establishing intervals for the local containment leak rate tests based on their performance. A study has been conducted to provide technical information for establishing the performance criteria for containment tests, the allowable leakage rate, commensurate with its significance to total public risk. The study used results of a recent comprehensive study conducted by the NRC, NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants,' to examine the sensitivity of containment leakage to public risk. Risk was found to be insensitive to containment leakage rate up to levels of about 100 percent-volume per day for certain types of containments. PRA methods have also been developed to establish risk-based intervals for containment tests based on their past experience. Preliminary evaluations show that increasing the interval for the integrated containment leakage test from three times to once every ten years would have an insignificant impact on public risk. Preliminary analyses of operational experience data for local leak rate tests show that performance-based testing, valves and penetrations that perform well are tested less frequently, is feasible with marginal impact on safety. The above technical studies are being used to develop efficient (cost-effective) requirements for containment tests. (author). 4 refs., 2 figs

Genetic variation in the base excision repair pathway, environmental risk factors, and colorectal adenoma risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roman Corral

Full Text Available Cigarette smoking, high alcohol intake, and low dietary folate levels are risk factors for colorectal adenomas. Oxidative damage caused by these three factors can be repaired through the base excision repair pathway (BER. We hypothesized that genetic variation in BER might modify colorectal adenoma risk. In a sigmoidoscopy-based study, we examined associations between 182 haplotype tagging SNPs in 14 BER genes, and colorectal adenoma risk, and examined their potential role as modifiers of the effect cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, and dietary folate levels. Among all individuals, no statistically significant associations between BER SNPs and adenoma risk persisted after correction for multiple comparisons. However, among Asian-Pacific Islanders we observed two SNPs in FEN1 and one in NTHL1, and among African-Americans one SNP in APEX1 that were associated with colorectal adenoma risk. Significant associations were also observed between SNPs in the NEIL2 gene and rectal adenoma risk. Three SNPS modified the effect of smoking (MUTYH interaction p = 0.002; OGG1 interaction p = 0.013; FEN1 interaction p = 0.013, one SNP in LIG3 modified the effect of alcohol consumption (interaction p = 0.024 and two SNPs in LIG3 modified the effect of dietary folate (interaction p = 0.001 and p = 0.08 on colorectal adenoma risk. These findings support a role for genetic variants in the BER pathway as potential modifiers of colorectal adenoma risk. Our findings strengthen the role of oxidative damage induced by key lifestyle and dietary risk factors in colorectal adenoma formation.

An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

2017-11-17

Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Xiaoling

Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

1981-07-01

Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected

Development of a risk-based approach to Hanford Site cleanup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hesser, W.A.; Daling, P.M.; Baynes, P.A.

1995-06-01

In response to a request from Mr. Thomas Grumbly, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environmental Management, the Hanford Site contractors developed a conceptual set of risk-based cleanup strategies that (1) protect the public, workers, and environment from unacceptable risks; (2) are executable technically; and (3) fit within an expected annual funding profile of 1.05 billion dollars. These strategies were developed because (1) the US Department of Energy and Hanford Site budgets are being reduced, (2) stakeholders are dissatisfied with the perceived rate of cleanup, (3) the US Congress and the US Department of Energy are increasingly focusing on risk and riskreduction activities, (4) the present strategy is not integrated across the Site and is inconsistent in its treatment of similar hazards, (5) the present cleanup strategy is not cost-effective from a risk-reduction or future land use perspective, and (6) the milestones and activities in the Tri-Party Agreement cannot be achieved with an anticipated funding of 1.05 billion dollars annually. The risk-based strategies described herein were developed through a systems analysis approach that (1) analyzed the cleanup mission; (2) identified cleanup objectives, including risk reduction, land use, and mortgage reduction; (3) analyzed the existing baseline cleanup strategy from a cost and risk perspective; (4) developed alternatives for accomplishing the cleanup mission; (5) compared those alternatives against cleanup objectives; and (6) produced conclusions and recommendations regarding the current strategy and potential risk-based strategies

The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim

2015-01-01

action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health. Scope and approach The advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring the safety of food chemicals, allergens, ingredients and microorganisms were...

Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

Science.gov (United States)

Terrier, Douglas; Clayton, Ronald G.; Patel, Zarana; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice

2015-01-01

Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

Promotion of technical harmonisation on risk-based decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchsteiger, Christian; Cojazzi, Giacomo

2000-01-01

The EC-JRC International Workshop on Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making, held at Stresa and Ispra, Italy, 22-25 May 2000, was an experts meeting to discuss the possible need of developing an internationally accepted generic 'standard' for risk-based decision making.This paper briefly describes the workshop background, its organisation and summarises its main results and conclusions; it reflects the personal opinions of the authors and in no way commits the European Commission. (author)

Risk-Based Sampling: I Don't Want to Weight in Vain.

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Mark R

2015-12-01

Recently, there has been considerable interest in developing risk-based sampling for food safety and animal and plant health for efficient allocation of inspection and surveillance resources. The problem of risk-based sampling allocation presents a challenge similar to financial portfolio analysis. Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for modern portfolio theory based on mean-variance optimization. However, a persistent challenge in implementing portfolio optimization is the problem of estimation error, leading to false "optimal" portfolios and unstable asset weights. In some cases, portfolio diversification based on simple heuristics (e.g., equal allocation) has better out-of-sample performance than complex portfolio optimization methods due to estimation uncertainty. Even for portfolios with a modest number of assets, the estimation window required for true optimization may imply an implausibly long stationary period. The implications for risk-based sampling are illustrated by a simple simulation model of lot inspection for a small, heterogeneous group of producers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Knowledge-Base for a Personalized Infectious Disease Risk Prediction System.

Science.gov (United States)

Vinarti, Retno; Hederman, Lucy

2018-01-01

We present a knowledge-base to represent collated infectious disease risk (IDR) knowledge. The knowledge is about personal and contextual risk of contracting an infectious disease obtained from declarative sources (e.g. Atlas of Human Infectious Diseases). Automated prediction requires encoding this knowledge in a form that can produce risk probabilities (e.g. Bayesian Network - BN). The knowledge-base presented in this paper feeds an algorithm that can auto-generate the BN. The knowledge from 234 infectious diseases was compiled. From this compilation, we designed an ontology and five rule types for modelling IDR knowledge in general. The evaluation aims to assess whether the knowledge-base structure, and its application to three disease-country contexts, meets the needs of personalized IDR prediction system. From the evaluation results, the knowledge-base conforms to the system's purpose: personalization of infectious disease risk.

The Two C”s of the Risk-Based Approach to Goal based Standards: Challenges and Caveats

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Zachariadis, Panos

2007-01-01

industry has begun to move from a reactive to a proactive approach to safety through “Formal Safety Assessment” (FSA) and “Goal Based Standards” (GBS). FSA was introduced by the IMO as “a rational and systematic process for accessing the risk related to maritime safety and the protection of the marine...... environment and for evaluating the costs and benefits of IMO’s options for reducing these risks”. The recent GBS approach aims to be another proactive instrument, and there has been recent discussion in the IMO on the possible links between FSA and GBS. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used......, but confusing to many, notions such as Risk Based Rulemaking vs. Risk Based Design, and IMO's GBS Traditional Approach vs. Safety Level Approach, and the implications of their use, or misuse, to future ship rulemaking, design and safety. The paper elaborates on some identified weaknesses of the risk based...

A risk-based auditing process for pharmaceutical manufacturers.

Science.gov (United States)

Vargo, Susan; Dana, Bob; Rangavajhula, Vijaya; Rönninger, Stephan

2014-01-01

The purpose of this article is to share ideas on developing a risk-based model for the scheduling of audits (both internal and external). Audits are a key element of a manufacturer's quality system and provide an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's or the supplier/vendor's compliance status. Suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches are discussed in the article. Pharmaceutical manufacturers are required to establish and implement a quality system. The quality system is an organizational structure defining responsibilities, procedures, processes, and resources that the manufacturer has established to ensure quality throughout the manufacturing process. Audits are a component of the manufacturer's quality system and provide a systematic and an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's overall quality system and compliance status. Audits are performed at defined intervals for a specified duration. The intention of the audit process is to focus on key areas within the quality system and may not cover all relevant areas during each audit. In this article, the authors provide suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches to aid pharmaceutical manufacturers in identifying the key focus areas for an audit.

Volatility and correlation-based systemic risk measures in the US market

Science.gov (United States)

Civitarese, Jamil

2016-10-01

This paper deals with the problem of how to use simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. Using three simple examples taken from previous literature, one based on raw and partial correlations, another based on the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix and the last one based on an eigenvalue entropy, a Granger-causation analysis revealed some of them are not always a good measure of risk in the S&P 500 and in the VIX. The measures selected do not Granger-cause the VIX index in all windows selected; therefore, in the sense of risk as volatility, the indicators are not always suitable. Nevertheless, their results towards returns are similar to previous works that accept them. A deeper analysis has shown that any symmetric measure based on eigenvalue decomposition of correlation matrices, however, is not useful as a measure of "correlation" risk. The empirical counterpart analysis of this proposition stated that negative correlations are usually small and, therefore, do not heavily distort the behavior of the indicator.

A risk-based model for maintenance decision support of civil structures using RAMS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Viana Da Rocha, T. C.; Stipanovic, I.; Hartmann, A.; Bakker, J.

2017-01-01

As a cornerstone of transportation asset management, risk-based approaches have been used to support maintenance decisions of civil structures. However, ambiguous and subjective risk criteria and inconsistency on the use of risk-based approaches can lead to a fuzzy understanding of the risks

Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

1987-01-01

The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

Depth-dependent effects of culling—do mesophotic lionfish populations undermine current management?

Science.gov (United States)

Grey, Rachel; Hendrix, Alicia; Hitchner, Drew; Gress, Erika; Madej, Konrad; Parry, Rachel L.; Régnier-McKellar, Catriona; Jones, Owen P.; Arteaga, María; Izaguirre, Andrea P.; Rogers, Alex D.; Exton, Dan A.

2017-01-01

Invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) have spread widely across the western Atlantic and are recognized as a major threat to native marine biodiversity. Although lionfish inhabit both shallow reefs and mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs; reefs from 30 to 150 m depth), the primary management response implemented by many countries has been diver-led culling limited to reefs less than 30 m. However, many reef fish undergo ontogenetic migrations, with the largest and therefore most fecund individuals found at greatest depths. Here, we study lionfish density, body size, maturity and dietary patterns across the depth gradient from the surface down to 85 m on heavily culled reefs around Utila, Honduras. We found lionfish at increased densities, body size and weight on MCEs compared with shallow reefs, with MCEs also containing the greatest proportion of actively spawning females, while shallow reefs contained the greatest proportion of immature lionfish. We then compared lionfish behaviour in response to divers on shallow culled and mesophotic unculled Utilan reefs, and on shallow unculled reefs in Tela Bay, on the Honduran mainland. We found that mesophotic lionfish exhibited high alert distances, consistent with individuals previously exposed to culling despite being below the depth limits of removal. In addition, when examining stomach content, we found that fish were the major component of lionfish diets across the depth gradient. Importantly, our results suggest that despite adjacent shallow culling, MCEs retain substantial lionfish populations that may be disproportionately contributing towards continued lionfish recruitment onto the shallow reefs of Utila, potentially undermining current culling-based management. PMID:28573007

Risk Analysis Method Based on FMEA for Transmission Line in Lightning Hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

You-Yuan WANG

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Failure rate of transmission line and reliability of power system are significantly affected by Lightning meteorological factor. In view of the complexity and variability of Lightning meteorological factors, this paper presents lightning trip-out rate model of transmission line in considering distribution of ground flash density and lightning day hours. Meanwhile, presents a failure rate model of transmission line in different condition, and a risk analysis method for transmission line considering multiple risk factors based on risk quantification. This method takes Lightning meteorological factor as the main evaluation standard, and establishes risk degree evaluation system for transmission line including another five evaluation standard. Put forward the risk indicators by quantify the risk factors based on experience date of transmission line in service. Based on the risk indexes comprehensive evaluation is conducted, and the evaluation result closer to practice is achieved, providing basis for transmission line risk warning and maintenance strategy. Through the risk analysis for 220 kV transmission line in a certain power supply bureau, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated.

Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

2004-01-01

In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

Quantification of Technology Innovation Usinga Risk-Based Framework

OpenAIRE

Gerard E. Sleefe

2010-01-01

There is significant interest in achieving technology innovation through new product development activities. It is recognized, however, that traditional project management practices focused only on performance, cost, and schedule attributes, can often lead to risk mitigation strategies that limit new technology innovation. In this paper, a new approach is proposed for formally managing and quantifying technology innovation. This approach uses a risk-based framework that s...

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Delaware based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Delaware census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Alabama based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Alabama census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Washington based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Washington census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Hawaii based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Hawaii census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Mississippi based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Mississippi census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Louisiana based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Louisiana census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Wisconsin based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Wisconsin census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Georgia based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Georgia census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Michigan based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Michigan census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Virginia based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Virginia census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Maryland based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Maryland census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Maine based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Maine census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Alaska based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Alaska census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Illinois based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Illinois census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Ohio based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Ohio census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Pennsylvania based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Pennsylvania census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Connecticut based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Connecticut census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Massachusetts based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Massachusetts census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Texas based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Texas census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Indiana based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Indiana census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Oregon based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Oregon census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

1981-07-01

Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

2014-01-01

This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

OpenAIRE

Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

2009-01-01

The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommend...

Trust-Based Information Risk Management in a Supply Chain Network

OpenAIRE

Yanjun Zuo; Wen-Chen Hu

2009-01-01

Information risk management is crucial for an organization operating in an increasingly integrated and intensively communicated environment to mitigate risks and ensure core business functions. Given the open and dynamic nature of a supply chain network, information risk management is challenging and various factors must be considered. This article introduces a trust-based approach to facilitate supply chain participants to perform effective risk management. The major components of the propos...

Cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit analyses of risk-based screening strategies for breast cancer.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ester Vilaprinyo

Full Text Available The one-size-fits-all paradigm in organized screening of breast cancer is shifting towards a personalized approach. The present study has two objectives: 1 To perform an economic evaluation and to assess the harm-benefit ratios of screening strategies that vary in their intensity and interval ages based on breast cancer risk; and 2 To estimate the gain in terms of cost and harm reductions using risk-based screening with respect to the usual practice. We used a probabilistic model and input data from Spanish population registries and screening programs, as well as from clinical studies, to estimate the benefit, harm, and costs over time of 2,624 screening strategies, uniform or risk-based. We defined four risk groups, low, moderate-low, moderate-high and high, based on breast density, family history of breast cancer and personal history of breast biopsy. The risk-based strategies were obtained combining the exam periodicity (annual, biennial, triennial and quinquennial, the starting ages (40, 45 and 50 years and the ending ages (69 and 74 years in the four risk groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios were used to select the optimal strategies. Compared to risk-based strategies, the uniform ones result in a much lower benefit for a specific cost. Reductions close to 10% in costs and higher than 20% in false-positive results and overdiagnosed cases were obtained for risk-based strategies. Optimal screening is characterized by quinquennial or triennial periodicities for the low or moderate risk-groups and annual periodicity for the high-risk group. Risk-based strategies can reduce harm and costs. It is necessary to develop accurate measures of individual risk and to work on how to implement risk-based screening strategies.

Sensitivity of Risk-Based Maintenance Planning of Offshore Wind Turbine Farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ambühl, Simon; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2017-01-01

Inspection and maintenance expenses cover a considerable part of the cost of energy from offshore wind turbines. Risk-based maintenance planning approaches are a powerful tool to optimize maintenance and inspection actions and decrease the total maintenance expenses. Risk-based planning is based...... on many input parameters, which are in reality often not completely known. This paper will assess the cost impact of this incomplete knowledge based on a case study following risk-based maintenance planning. The sensitivity study focuses on weather forecast uncertainties, incomplete knowledge about...... the needed repair time on the site as well as uncertainties about the operational range of the boat and helicopter used to access the broken wind turbine. The cost saving potential is estimated by running Crude Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, corrective and preventive (scheduled and condition...

Agent-Based Modelling for Security Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, S.A.M.; Sharpans'kykh, Alexei; Bajo, J.; Vale, Z.; Hallenborg, K.; Rocha, A.P.; Mathieu, P.; Pawlewski, P.; Del Val, E.; Novais, P.; Lopes, F.; Duque Méndez, N.D.; Julián, V.; Holmgren, J.

2017-01-01

Security Risk Assessment is commonly performed by using traditional methods based on linear probabilistic tools and informal expert judgements. These methods lack the capability to take the inherent dynamic and intelligent nature of attackers into account. To partially address the limitations,

Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

2016-07-01

Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measuring the coupled risks: A copula-based CVaR model

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xubiao; Gong, Pu

2009-01-01

Integrated risk management for financial institutions requires an approach for aggregating risk types (such as market and credit) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. The financial institutions often ignore risks' coupling influence so as to underestimate the financial risks. We constructed a copula-based Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) model for market and credit risks. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture essential empirical features of these risks, such as skewness and fat-tails while allowing for a rich dependence structure. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to implement the model. Our results indicate that the coupled risks for the listed company's stock maybe are undervalued if credit risk is ignored, especially for the listed company with bad credit quality.

Risk-based emergency decision support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koerte, Jens

2003-01-01

In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

Time-based collision risk modeling for air traffic management

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Alan E.

Since the emergence of commercial aviation in the early part of last century, economic forces have driven a steadily increasing demand for air transportation. Increasing density of aircraft operating in a finite volume of airspace is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the risk of collision, and in response to a growing number of incidents and accidents involving collisions between aircraft, governments worldwide have developed air traffic control systems and procedures to mitigate this risk. The objective of any collision risk management system is to project conflicts and provide operators with sufficient opportunity to recognize potential collisions and take necessary actions to avoid them. It is therefore the assertion of this research that the currency of collision risk management is time. Future Air Traffic Management Systems are being designed around the foundational principle of four dimensional trajectory based operations, a method that replaces legacy first-come, first-served sequencing priorities with time-based reservations throughout the airspace system. This research will demonstrate that if aircraft are to be sequenced in four dimensions, they must also be separated in four dimensions. In order to separate aircraft in four dimensions, time must emerge as the primary tool by which air traffic is managed. A functional relationship exists between the time-based performance of aircraft, the interval between aircraft scheduled to cross some three dimensional point in space, and the risk of collision. This research models that relationship and presents two key findings. First, a method is developed by which the ability of an aircraft to meet a required time of arrival may be expressed as a robust standard for both industry and operations. Second, a method by which airspace system capacity may be increased while maintaining an acceptable level of collision risk is presented and demonstrated for the purpose of formulating recommendations for procedures

Enhancing the effectiveness of IST through risk-based techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Floyd, S.D.

1996-12-01

Current IST requirements were developed mainly through deterministic-based methods. While this approach has resulted in an adequate level of safety and reliability for pumps and valves, insights from probabilistic safety assessments suggest a better safety focus can be achieved at lower costs. That is, some high safety impact pumps and valves are currently not tested under the IST program and should be added, while low safety impact valves could be tested at significantly greater intervals than allowed by the current IST program. The nuclear utility industry, through the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), has developed a draft guideline for applying risk-based techniques to focus testing on those pumps and valves with a high safety impact while reducing test frequencies on low safety impact pumps and valves. The guideline is being validated through an industry pilot application program that is being reviewed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NEI and the ASME maintain a dialogue on the two groups` activities related to risk-based IST. The presenter will provide an overview of the NEI guideline, discuss the methodological approach for applying risk-based technology to IST and provide the status of the industry pilot plant effort.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

The price of the precautionary principle: cost-effectiveness of BSE intervention strategies in The Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Benedictus, A; Hogeveen, H; Berends, B R

2009-06-01

Since 1996, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle has been linked to a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), a fatal brain disease in man. This paper assessed the cost-effectiveness of BSE control strategies instituted by the European Commission. In a Monte Carlo simulation model, a non-intervention baseline scenario was compared to three intervention strategies: removal of specified risk materials from slaughter animals, post-mortem testing for BSE and the culling of feed and age cohorts of BSE cases. The food risk in the baseline scenario ranged from 16.98 lost life years in 2002 to 2.69 lost life years in 2005. Removing specified risk materials removal practices, post-mortem testing and post-mortem testing plus cohort culling reduced this risk with 93%, 82.7% and 83.1%. The estimated cost-effectiveness of all BSE measures in The Netherlands ranged from 4.3 million euros per life year saved in 2002 to 17.7 million euros in 2005. It was discussed that the cost-effectiveness of BSE control strategies will further deviate from regular health economics thresholds as BSE prevalence and incidence declines.

A perspective of PC-based probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Robinson, R.C.; Russell, K.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information has been under-utilized in the past due to the large effort required to input the PRA data and the large expense of the computers needed to run PRA codes. The microcomputer-based Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System, under development at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, have greatly enhanced the ability of managers to use PRA techniques in their decision-making. IRRAS is a tool that allows an analyst to create, modify, update, and reanalyze a plant PRA to keep the risk assessment current with the plant's configuration and operation. The SARA system is used to perform sensitivity studies on the results of a PRA. This type of analysis can be used to evaluate proposed changes to a plant or its operation. The success of these two software projects demonstrate that risk information can be made readily available to those that need it. This is the first step in the development of a true risk management capability

SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

Science.gov (United States)

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

Managing long-term polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contaminated soils: a risk-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Luchun; Naidu, Ravi; Thavamani, Palanisami; Meaklim, Jean; Megharaj, Mallavarapu

2015-06-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a family of contaminants that consist of two or more aromatic rings fused together. Soils contaminated with PAHs pose significant risk to human and ecological health. Over the last 50 years, significant research has been directed towards the cleanup of PAH-contaminated soils to background level. However, this achieved only limited success especially with high molecular weight compounds. Notably, during the last 5-10 years, the approach to remediate PAH-contaminated soils has changed considerably. A risk-based prioritization of remediation interventions has become a valuable step in the management of contaminated sites. The hydrophobicity of PAHs underlines that their phase distribution in soil is strongly influenced by factors such as soil properties and ageing of PAHs within the soil. A risk-based approach recognizes that exposure and environmental effects of PAHs are not directly related to the commonly measured total chemical concentration. Thus, a bioavailability-based assessment using a combination of chemical analysis with toxicological assays and nonexhaustive extraction technique would serve as a valuable tool in risk-based approach for remediation of PAH-contaminated soils. In this paper, the fate and availability of PAHs in contaminated soils and their relevance to risk-based management of long-term contaminated soils are reviewed. This review may serve as guidance for the use of site-specific risk-based management methods.

[Physical process based risk assessment of groundwater pollution in the mining area].

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Fa-Sheng; Cheng, Pin; Zhang, Bo

2014-04-01

Case studies of groundwater pollution risk assessment at home and abroad generally start from groundwater vulnerability, without considering the influence of characteristic pollutants on the consequences of pollution too much. Vulnerability is the natural sensitivity of the environment to pollutants. Risk assessment of groundwater pollution should reflect the movement and distribution of pollutants in groundwater. In order to improve the risk assessment theory and method of groundwater pollution, a physical process based risk assessment methodology for groundwater pollution was proposed in a mining area. According to the sensitivity of the economic and social conditions and the possible distribution of pollutants in the future, the spatial distribution of risk levels in aquifer was ranged before hand, and the pollutant source intensity corresponding to each risk level was deduced accordingly. By taking it as the criterion for the classification of groundwater pollution risk assessment, the groundwater pollution risk in the mining area was evaluated by simulating the migration of pollutants in the vadose zone and aquifer. The result show that the risk assessment method of groundwater pollution based on physical process can give the concentration distribution of pollutants and the risk level in the spatial and temporal. For single punctuate polluted area, it gives detailed risk characterization, which is better than the risk assessment method that based on aquifer intrinsic vulnerability index, and it is applicable to the risk assessment of existing polluted sites, optimizing the future sites and providing design parameters for the site construction.

FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

AZARM, M.A.; TRAVIS, R.J.

1999-01-01

The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions

Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

1995-01-01

The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

Gorduras de descarte e componentes externos do corpo de novilhos e vacas de descarte de diferentes grupos genéticos Trim fat and external components of the body of steers and cull cows from different genetic groups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonatan Cattelan

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Objetivou-se com esse estudo avaliar as proporções das diferentes gorduras de descarte e os componentes externos do corpo de novilhos e vacas de descarte 5/8Charolês (Ch 3/8Nelore (Ne e 5/8Ne 3/8Ch. A idade média dos animais ao final do período experimental foi de 23 meses para os novilhos e 68 meses para as vacas de descarte. Os animais foram terminados em confinamento até atingirem acabamento para o abate. A dieta alimentar continha relação volumoso:concentrado de 40:60 (base na matéria seca, com 14,2% de proteína bruta e 2.869kcal de energia digestível kg-1 de matéria seca. O delineamento experimental foi o inteiramente casualizado, em um arranjo fatorial 2x2 (2 categorias x 2 grupos genéticos. Houve maior peso de abate (PAB (509,67 contra 414,50kg e de corpo vazio (PCVZ (433,01 contra 355,27kg para as vacas em relação aos novilhos. Quando os componentes foram expressos em valores absolutos e ajustados para PCVZ e PAB, as vacas apresentaram maiores pesos de gordura inguinal/úbere, gordura renal e no total de gordura interna. Quando os pesos dos componentes foram ajustados para PAB e PCVZ, os novilhos foram superiores no peso da cabeça, patas, vassoura da cauda e no total dos componentes externos. Os animais 5/8Ch 3/8Ne apresentaram maior peso absoluto da cabeça e maior peso relativo ao PCVZ da gordura ruminal, em relação aos 5/8Ne 3/8Ch. Por outro lado, os 5/8N e 3/8Ch apresentaram maiores pesos relativos ao PAB e PCVZ do couro e do PAB do total de componentes externos, quando comparados aos 5/8Ch 3/8Ne. Não houve correlação entre o rendimento de carcaça e os componentes não integrantes da carcaça.The objective of this research was to evaluate the trim fat and external components of the body of two categories, steers and cull cows, from two genetic groups: 5/8 Charolais (Ch 3/8 Nellore (Ne and 5/8Ne 3/8Ch. The average age of animals at the end of the experimental period was of 23 and 68 months, for steers and cull

System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

2013-01-01

During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

Bayesian risk-based decision method for model validation under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang Xiaomo; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2007-01-01

This paper develops a decision-making methodology for computational model validation, considering the risk of using the current model, data support for the current model, and cost of acquiring new information to improve the model. A Bayesian decision theory-based method is developed for this purpose, using a likelihood ratio as the validation metric for model assessment. An expected risk or cost function is defined as a function of the decision costs, and the likelihood and prior of each hypothesis. The risk is minimized through correctly assigning experimental data to two decision regions based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a decision threshold. A Bayesian validation metric is derived based on the risk minimization criterion. Two types of validation tests are considered: pass/fail tests and system response value measurement tests. The methodology is illustrated for the validation of reliability prediction models in a tension bar and an engine blade subjected to high cycle fatigue. The proposed method can effectively integrate optimal experimental design into model validation to simultaneously reduce the cost and improve the accuracy of reliability model assessment

Towards risk-based structural integrity methods for PWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, O.J.V.; Lloyd, R.B.

1992-01-01

This paper describes the development of risk-based structural integrity assurance methods and their application to Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) plant. In-service inspection is introduced as a way of reducing the failure probability of high risk sites and the latter are identified using reliability analysis; the extent and interval of inspection can also be optimized. The methodology is illustrated by reference to the aspect of reliability of weldments in PWR systems. (author)

A clustering approach to segmenting users of internet-based risk calculators.

Science.gov (United States)

Harle, C A; Downs, J S; Padman, R

2011-01-01

Risk calculators are widely available Internet applications that deliver quantitative health risk estimates to consumers. Although these tools are known to have varying effects on risk perceptions, little is known about who will be more likely to accept objective risk estimates. To identify clusters of online health consumers that help explain variation in individual improvement in risk perceptions from web-based quantitative disease risk information. A secondary analysis was performed on data collected in a field experiment that measured people's pre-diabetes risk perceptions before and after visiting a realistic health promotion website that provided quantitative risk information. K-means clustering was performed on numerous candidate variable sets, and the different segmentations were evaluated based on between-cluster variation in risk perception improvement. Variation in responses to risk information was best explained by clustering on pre-intervention absolute pre-diabetes risk perceptions and an objective estimate of personal risk. Members of a high-risk overestimater cluster showed large improvements in their risk perceptions, but clusters of both moderate-risk and high-risk underestimaters were much more muted in improving their optimistically biased perceptions. Cluster analysis provided a unique approach for segmenting health consumers and predicting their acceptance of quantitative disease risk information. These clusters suggest that health consumers were very responsive to good news, but tended not to incorporate bad news into their self-perceptions much. These findings help to quantify variation among online health consumers and may inform the targeted marketing of and improvements to risk communication tools on the Internet.

Demonstration of risk-based approaches to nuclear plant regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Darling, S.S.; Oddo, J.M.

1993-01-01

This paper describes generic technical support EPRI is providing to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of risk-based regulations (RBR). A risk-based regulatory approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate safety resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. This approach will reduce O ampersand M costs, and also improve nuclear plant safety. In order to enhance industry, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and public confidence in RBR, three things need to be shown: (1) manpower/resource savings are significant for both NRC and industry; (2) the process is doable in a reasonable amount of time; and (3) the process, if uniformly applied, results in demonstrably cheaper power and safer plants. In 1992, EPRI performed a qualitative study of the key RBR issues contributing to high O ampersand M costs. The results are given on Table 1. This study is being followed up by an in-depth quantitative cost/benefit study to focus technical work on producing guidelines/procedures for licensing submittals to NRC. The guidelines/procedures necessarily will be developed from successful demonstration projects such as the Fitzpatrick pilot plant study proposed by the New York Power Authority and other generic applications. This paper presents three examples: two motor operated valve projects performed by QUADREX Energy Services Corporation working with utilities in responding to NRC Generic Letter 89-10, and a third project working with Yankee Atomic Electric Company on service water systems at a plant in its service system. These demonstration projects aim to show the following: (1) the relative ease of putting together a technical case based on RBR concepts; (2) clarity in differentiating the various risk trade-offs, and in communicating overall reductions in risk with NRC; and (3) improved prioritization of NRC directives

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Coastal States based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of coastal states census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for Rhode Island based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of Rhode Island census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for New Hampshire based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of New Hampshire census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for New Jersey based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of New Jersey census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for New York based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of New York census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for South Carolina based on 2000 Census Block Groups

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data depicts the social vulnerability of South Carolina census block groups to environmental hazards. Data were culled primarily from the 2000 Decennial Census.

Cool but counterproductive: interactive, Web-based risk communications can backfire.

Science.gov (United States)

Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Dickson, Mark; Witteman, Holly O

2011-08-25

Paper-based patient decision aids generally present risk information using numbers and/or static images. However, limited psychological research has suggested that when people interactively graph risk information, they process the statistics more actively, making the information more available for decision making. Such interactive tools could potentially be incorporated in a new generation of Web-based decision aids. The objective of our study was to investigate whether interactive graphics detailing the risk of side effects of two treatments improve knowledge and decision making over standard risk graphics. A total of 3371 members of a demographically diverse Internet panel viewed a hypothetical scenario about two hypothetical treatments for thyroid cancer. Each treatment had a chance of causing 1 of 2 side effects, but we randomly varied whether one treatment was better on both dimensions (strong dominance condition), slightly better on only one dimension (mild dominance condition), or better on one dimension but worse on the other (trade-off condition) than the other treatment. We also varied whether respondents passively viewed the risk information in static pictograph (icon array) images or actively manipulated the information by using interactive Flash-based animations of "fill-in-the-blank" pictographs. Our primary hypothesis was that active manipulation would increase respondents' ability to recognize dominance (when available) and choose the better treatment. The interactive risk graphic conditions had significantly worse survey completion rates (1110/1695, 65.5% vs 1316/1659, 79.3%, P graphic formats.

A new active portfolio risk management for an electricity retailer based on a drawdown risk preference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charwand, Mansour; Gitizadeh, Mohsen; Siano, Pierluigi

2017-01-01

This paper addresses the deciding under uncertainty of an electricity retailer in order to maximise its total expected rate of return. The developed methodology is based on the modelling of the stochastic evolution of zonal prices that seeks to manage a portfolio of different contracts. Retailer's load and the price at each zone are forecasted using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and a clustering technique is used for scenario reduction. Supply sources include the pool, self-production facilities, forward and bilateral contracts. The risk of cost fluctuation due to uncertainties is explicitly modelled using the multi-scenario drawdown methodology. This risk function quantifies in aggregated format the frequency and magnitude of the portfolio drawdowns over planning horizon. In-sample and out-of-sample runs are performed for a portfolio allocation problem. Carried out experimental results on the basis of realistic data, show that imposing risk constraints improve the “real” performance of a portfolio management in out-of-sample runs. - Highlights: • A new drawdown-based method is introduced to retailer deciding under uncertainty. • This tool is used to assess the risk levels regarding retailer midterm strategies. • The methodology is based on the modeling of the stochastic evolution of zonal prices. • The risk function quantifies the frequency and magnitude of the portfolio drawdowns. • In-sample and out-of-sample runs are performed for a portfolio allocation problem.

A risk-based review of Instrument Air systems at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeMoss, G.; Lofgren, E.; Rothleder, B.; Villeran, M.; Ruger, C.

1990-01-01

The broad objective of this analysis was to provide risk-based information to help focus regulatory actions related to Instrument Air (IA) systems at operating nuclear power plants. We first created an extensive data base of summarized and characterized IA-related events that gave a qualitative indication of the nature and severity of these events. Additionally, this data base was used to calculate the frequencies of certain events, which were used in the risk analysis. The risk analysis consisted of reviewing published PRAs and NRC Accident Sequence Precursor reports for IA-initiated accident sequences, IA interactions with frontline systems, and IA-related risk significant events. Sensitivity calculations were performed when possible. Generically, IA was found to contribute less to total risk than many safety systems; however, specific design weaknesses in safety systems, non-safety systems, and the IA system were found to be significant in risk. 22 refs., 13 figs., 24 tabs

Development of the Risk-Based Inspection Techniques and Pilot Plant Activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, J.H.

1997-01-01

Risk-based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants. System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the probabilistic risk analysis or probabilistic safety analysis developed to meet the individual plant evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for maintenance rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low-risk significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of pilot plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates that safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. The reduction in inspection reduces the person-rem exposure resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publication by the ASME CRTD

Assessment of Home-Based Nigerian Engineers on Risk ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Assessment of Home-Based Nigerian Engineers on Risk Management Approach ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Correlation methods were adopted for statistical ...

Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

1989-11-01

A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs.

Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

1989-11-01

A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs

Estimation of second primary cancers risk based on the treatment planning system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Chufeng; Sun Guangyao; Liu Hui; Zheng Huaqing; Cheng Mengyun; Li Gui; Wu Yican; FDS Team

2011-01-01

Estimates of second primary cancers risk after radiotherapy has become increasingly important for comparative treatment planning. A new method based on the treatment planning system to estimate the risk of second primary cancers was introduced in this paper. Using the Advanced/Accurate Radiotherapy Treatment System(ARTS), a treatment planning system developed by the FDS team,the risk of second primary cancer was estimated over two treatment plans for a patient with pancreatic cancer. Based on the second primary cancer risk, the two plans were compared. It was found that,kidney and gall-bladder had higher risk to develop second primary cancer. A better plan was chosen by the analysis of second primary cancer risk. The results showed that this risk estimation method we developed could be used to evaluate treatment plans. (authors)

Risk-based prioritization at Hanford Nuclear Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hesser, W.A.; Mosely, M.T.

1995-11-01

This paper describes the method used to incorporate risk-based decision making into the Hanford resource allocation process. This method, the Revised Priority Planning Grid, is used as a tool to calculate benefits and benefit-to-cost ratios for comparison of environmental cleanup activities. The tool is based on Hanford Site objectives. Benefits are determined by estimating the impact on those objectives resulting from funding specific environmental management activities. Impacts are also a function of the weights associated with the objectives. These weights in the Revised Priority Planning Grid reflect US Development of Energy management values, which were obtained through a formal value-elicitation process. With modification to the objectives and weights, the Revised Priority Planning Grid could be used in different situations. By factoring in environmental, safety, and health risk and assigning higher scores to those activities that provide the most benefit, the Revised Priority Planning Grid is a reproducible, scientific way of scoring competing activities or interests

Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Jeng-Hsiang

2018-04-01

Flat earthquake premiums are 'uniformly' set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk-based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

Risk-based fault detection using Self-Organizing Map

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Garaniya, Vikram

2015-01-01

The complexity of modern systems is increasing rapidly and the dominating relationships among system variables have become highly non-linear. This results in difficulty in the identification of a system's operating states. In turn, this difficulty affects the sensitivity of fault detection and imposes a challenge on ensuring the safety of operation. In recent years, Self-Organizing Maps has gained popularity in system monitoring as a robust non-linear dimensionality reduction tool. Self-Organizing Map is able to capture non-linear variations of the system. Therefore, it is sensitive to the change of a system's states leading to early detection of fault. In this paper, a new approach based on Self-Organizing Map is proposed to detect and assess the risk of fault. In addition, probabilistic analysis is applied to characterize the risk of fault into different levels according to the hazard potential to enable a refined monitoring of the system. The proposed approach is applied on two experimental systems. The results from both systems have shown high sensitivity of the proposed approach in detecting and identifying the root cause of faults. The refined monitoring facilitates the determination of the risk of fault and early deployment of remedial actions and safety measures to minimize the potential impact of fault. - Highlights: • A new approach based on Self-Organizing Map is proposed to detect faults. • Integration of fault detection with risk assessment methodology. • Fault risk characterization into different levels to enable focused system monitoring

Silagem de milho e grão de sorgo como suplementos para vacas de descarte terminadas em pastagem cultivada de estação fria Corn silage and sorghum grain supplementation to cull cows finished on cultivated winter pasture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L.F.G. Menezes

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Avaliou-se o efeito da suplementação com silagem de milho ou grão de sorgo no desempenho e características da carcaça e da carne de vacas de descarte, submetidas ao pastejo restrito em pastagem de aveia (Avena strigosa + azevém (Lolium multiflorum. Foram utilizadas 30 vacas mestiças Charolês-Nelore, com idade média de oito anos, distribuídas em igual número e ao acaso em três tratamentos: silagem de milho (TSI ou grão de sorgo moído (TSO como suplemento, e não suplementação (TPH. A suplementação com silagem de milho proporcionou aos animais maior escore corporal ao final do experimento (4,35 pontos contra 4,15 do TPH e 4,22 pontos para o TSO. Não houve efeito do volumoso ou concentrado suplementar sobre o peso corporal, ganho de peso diário e ganho em escore corporal. Não houve efeito de tratamento (P>0,05 sobre pesos e rendimentos quentes e frios da carcaça, espessura de gordura subcutânea, conformação, espessura de coxão, área de Longissimus dorsi e percentagem de cortes comerciais. A suplementação resultou em maior percentagem de gordura na carcaça e influenciou a cor e o marmoreio da carne. A silagem de milho e o grão de sorgo servem como alternativa para a suplementação de vacas de descarte em pastagem de aveia e azevém, uma vez que melhora as características da carcaça, embora sem efeito sobre o desempenho quando comparado à pastagem exclusiva.The effect of supplementation with corn silage or sorghum grain on the performance and characteristics of carcass and meat of cull cows, under temporary grazing on oats (Avena strigosa + ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum pasture was evaluated. Thirty crossbred Charolais-Nellore cull cows, with averaging eight-yearold,were randomly distributed in three treatments. The animals received corn silage (TSI or sorghum grain (TSO as supplement, while another lot did not receive supplementation (TPH. Animals supplemented with corn silage showed higher final body condition

Developing a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mansour Halimi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Summary: The strong relationship between climate and fascioliasis outbreaks enables the development of climate-based models to estimate the potential risk of fascioliasis outbreaks. This work aims to develop a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran using Ollerenshaw's fascioliasis risk index incorporating geographical information system (GIS. Using this index, a risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks for the entire country was developed. We determined that the country can be divided into 4 fascioliasis outbreak risk categories. Class 1, in which the Mt value is less than 100, includes more than 0.91 of the country's area. The climate in this class is not conducive to fascioliasis outbreaks in any month. Dryness and low temperature in the wet season (December to April are the key barriers against fascioliasis outbreaks in this class. The risk map developed based on climatic factors indicated that only 0.03 of the country's area, including Gilan province in the northern region of Iran, is highly suitable to fascioliasis outbreaks during September to January. The Mt value is greater than 500 in this class. Heavy rainfall in the summer and fall, especially in Rasht, Astara and Bandar Anzaly (≥1000 mm/year, creates more suitable breeding places for snail intermediate hosts. Keywords: Ollerenshaw fascioliasis risk index, Climate, Gilan province, Iran

Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haire, M.J.; Guthrie, V.; Walker, D.; Singer, R.

1995-01-01

The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry)

FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

AZARM,M.A.; TRAVIS,R.J.

1999-11-14

The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions.

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

2018-01-01

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

Influences of a Church-Based Intervention on Falls Risk Among Seniors.

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, Morgan; Morzinski, Jeffrey A; Ellis, Julie

2017-08-01

Prior studies illustrate that community-based programs effectively decrease falls risk in older adults and that faith-based programs improve health behaviors. The literature is unclear whether faith-based initiatives reduce seniors' fall risks. To tackle this gap, a long-term partnership led by 10 urban churches, a nearby nursing school, and a medical school developed a study with 3 objectives: determine baseline health concerns associated with falls (eg, depression, polypharmacy), implement a nurse-led, faith-based health education initiative for community-dwelling African American seniors at-risk of hospitalization, and assess pre- to post -program fall frequency. The 100 Healthy, At-Risk Families study team implemented 8 monthly educational health sessions promoting self-care and social support. Community nurses led the 60- to 90-minute sessions at each of 10 churches. To collect study data, nurses interviewed enrolled seniors pre- and post-intervention. Descriptive and comparison statistics were analyzed in Excel and Statistical Package for Social Sciences. Senior data at baseline found high rates of polypharmacy and physical imbalance, and no significant depression or gaps in social support. There was not a statistically significant change pre- to post-program in fall frequency "in prior year." Study findings reveal insights about African American senior health and fall risks. Church settings may provide a protective, psychosocial buffer for seniors, while polypharmacy and mobility/balance concerns indicate need for continued attention to fall risks. No increase in pre- to post-program falls was encouraging.

Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

2012-04-01

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

2012-01-01

This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

Lingua franca of personality - Taxonomies and structures based on the psycholexical approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Raad, B; Perugini, M; Hrebickova, M; Szarota, P

Data sets from seven original trait taxonomies from different languages, American English, Dutch, German, Hungarian, Italian, Czech, and Polish, are used for a crosscultural study. The taxonomic procedures, involving culling trait terms from the various lexicons and the construction Of

Effect of the dietary level of cull pinto beans (Phaseolus vulgaris on ruminal fermentation, kinetics, and digestibility of hair lambs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francisco Castillo Rangel

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The objective was to evaluate the effect of three levels of cull pinto beans (CPB; Phaseolus vulgaris on ruminal fermentation, kinetics, and nutrient digestibility in hair lambs. Six cannulated lambs averaging 56.6±3.8 kg were used and were randomly assigned to one of three treatments. Treatments were: 0.0 kg kg−1 of CPB in the supplement (control; 0.25 kg kg−1 of CPB in the supplement (CB25; and 0.40 kg kg−1 of CPB in the supplement (CB40. Dry matter intake, ruminal pH, NH3, and volatile fatty acid (VFA concentration, methane production, Kp (passage rate, MRT (mean retention time, and digestibility of dry matter, crude protein, and neutral detergent fiber were evaluated. Data were analyzed in a Latin square design, repeated in line, by MIXED procedure of SAS. Estimates used for Kp and MRT were obtained by a non-linear regression model (PROC NLIN. Dry matter intake was reduced by supplementation of CPB. No differences were found in ruminal pH or ruminal NH3. During the trial, differences were found for ruminal VFA concentration (mM, which were greater for the CB25 group. The propionate:acetate ratio was greater for the CB40 treatment. Methane production (mM/m differed among treatments, but it was the greatest for the CB40 group. Passage rate (kg kg−1/h and MRT (h were similar among treatments and the digestibility (kg kg−1 of dry matter, crude protein, and neutral detergent fiber was not different among treatments. The inclusion of 0.25 kg kg−1 of CPB in the diet of hair lambs allows for appropriate nutrient digestion without affecting Kp and MRT and increases the molar proportion of the ability of VFA to maintain acetate:propionate ratio without increasing methane production.

Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu Shenping [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: sphu@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Fang Quangen [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: qgfang@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xia Haibo [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: hbxia@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xi Yongtao [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: xiyt@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn

2007-03-15

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice.

Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu Shenping; Fang Quangen; Xia Haibo; Xi Yongtao

2007-01-01

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice

Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2009-01-01

For offshore wind turbines costs to operation and maintenance are substantial. This paper describes a risk-based lifecycle approach for optimal planning of operation and maintenance. The approach is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. Deterioration mechanisms such as fatigue, corrosion...

Risk-Based Maintenance Assessment in the Manufacturing Industry: Minimisation of Suboptimal Prioritisation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ratnayake R.M. Chandima

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Manufacturing firms continuously strive to increase the efficiency and effectiveness in the maintenance management processes. Focus is placed on eliminating the unexpected failures which cause unnecessary costs and the production losses. Risk-based maintenance (RBM strategies enable to address the above through the identification of probability and consequences of potential failures whilst providing a way for prioritisation of maintenance actions based on the risk of possible failures. Such prioritisations enable to identify the optimal maintenance strategy, intervals of maintenance tasks, and optimal level of spare parts inventory. However, the risk assessment activities are performed with the support of a risk matrix. Suboptimal classifications and/or prioritisations arise due to the inherent nature of the risk matrix. This is caused by the fact that there are no means to incorporate actual circumstances at the boundary of the input ranges or at the levels of linguistic data and risk categories. In this paper, a risk matrix is first developed in collaboration with one of the manufacturing firms in Poland. Then, it illustrates the use of fuzzy logic for minimisation of suboptimal prioritisation and/or classifications using a fuzzy inference system (FIS together with illustrative membership functions and a rule base. Finally, an illustrative risk assessment is also demonstrated to illustrate the methodology.

Risk of influenza A (H5N1) infection among poultry workers, Hong Kong, 1997-1998.

Science.gov (United States)

Bridges, Carolyn Buxton; Lim, Wilina; Hu-Primmer, Jean; Sims, Les; Fukuda, Keiji; Mak, K H; Rowe, Thomas; Thompson, William W; Conn, Laura; Lu, Xiuhua; Cox, Nancy J; Katz, Jacqueline M

2002-04-15

In 1997, outbreaks of highly pathogenic influenza A (H5N1) among poultry coincided with 18 documented human cases of H5N1 illness. Although exposure to live poultry was associated with human illness, no cases were documented among poultry workers (PWs). To evaluate the potential for avian-to-human transmission of H5N1, a cohort study was conducted among 293 Hong Kong government workers (GWs) who participated in a poultry culling operation and among 1525 PWs. Paired serum samples collected from GWs and single serum samples collected from PWs were considered to be anti-H5 antibody positive if they were positive by both microneutralization and Western blot testing. Among GWs, 3% were seropositive, and 1 seroconversion was documented. Among PWs, approximately 10% had anti-H5 antibody. More-intensive poultry exposure, such as butchering and exposure to ill poultry, was associated with having anti-H5 antibody. These findings suggest an increased risk for avian influenza infection from occupational exposure.

The case for risk-based premiums in public health insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Zweifel, Peter; Breuer, Michael

2006-04-01

Uniform, risk-independent insurance premiums are accepted as part of 'managed competition' in health care. However, they are not compatible with optimality of health insurance contracts in the presence of both ex ante and ex post moral hazard. They have adverse effects on insurer behaviour even if risk adjustment is taken into account. Risk-based premiums combined with means-tested, tax-financed transfers are advocated as an alternative.

Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

2018-04-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local

Risk-based Operation and Maintenance for Offshore Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Nielsen, Jannie Jessen

2011-01-01

For offshore wind turbines, costs to Operation and Maintenance (OM) are substantial, and can be expected to increase when wind farms are placed at deeper water depths and in more harsh environments. Traditional strategies for OM include corrective and preventive (scheduled and condition...... statistics and costs of the different operations. The different OM strategies are described and compared in an illustrative example with focus on which types of information that are needed. Special focus is on comparison between risk-based maintenance strategies and the conventional maintenance planning...... and are often the driving mechanisms for failures / faults that need maintenance. Observations of the degree of damage can increase the reliability of predictions and decrease the costs of OM if integrated in a risk-based framework theoretically based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. The mathematical...

Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

1991-05-01

The first phase of the assessment concentrates on (1) identification of selected risk-based approaches for improving current technical specifications, (2) appraisal of characteristics of each approach, including advantages and disadvantages, and (3) recommendation of one or more approaches that might result in improving current technical specification requirements. The second phase of the work concentrates on assessment of the feasibility of implementation of a pilot program to study detailed characteristics of the preferred approach. The real time risk-based approach was identified as the preferred approach to technical specifications for controlling plant operational risk. There do not appear to be any technical or institutional obstacles to prevent initiation of a pilot program to assess the characteristics and effectiveness of such an approach. 2 tabs

Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

Science.gov (United States)

Tsabadze, Teimuraz

2017-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

Risk-based management of remaining life of power plant components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roos, E.; Jovanovic, A.S.; Maile, K.; Auerkari, P.

1999-01-01

The paper describes application of different modules of the MPA-System ALIAS in risk-based management of remaining life of power plant components. The system allows comprehensive coverage of all aspects of the remaining life management, including also the risk analysis and risk management. In addition, thanks to the modular character of the system it is also possible to implement new methods: In the case described here, a new (probabilistic) method for determination of the next inspection time for the components exposed to creep loading has been developed and implemented in the system. Practical application of the method has shown (a) that the mean values obtained by the method fall into the range of results obtained by other methods (based on expert knowledge), and (b) that it is possible to quantify the probability of aberration from the mean values. This in turn allows quantifying the additional risks linked to e.g. prolonging of inspection intervals. (orig.) [de

A School-Based Suicide Risk Assessment Protocol

Science.gov (United States)

Boccio, Dana E.

2015-01-01

Suicide remains the third leading cause of death among young people in the United States. Considering that youth who contemplate suicide generally exhibit warning signs before engaging in lethal self-harm, school-based mental health professionals can play a vital role in identifying students who are at risk for suicidal behavior. Nevertheless, the…

Environmental restoration risk-based prioritization work package planning and risk ranking methodology. Revision 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dail, J.L.; Nanstad, L.D.; White, R.K.

1995-06-01

This document presents the risk-based prioritization methodology developed to evaluate and rank Environmental Restoration (ER) work packages at the five US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Field Office (DOE-ORO) sites [i.e., Oak Ridge K-25 Site (K-25), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12)], the ER Off-site Program, and Central ER. This prioritization methodology was developed to support the increased rigor and formality of work planning in the overall conduct of operations within the DOE-ORO ER Program. Prioritization is conducted as an integral component of the fiscal ER funding cycle to establish program budget priorities. The purpose of the ER risk-based prioritization methodology is to provide ER management with the tools and processes needed to evaluate, compare, prioritize, and justify fiscal budget decisions for a diverse set of remedial action, decontamination and decommissioning, and waste management activities. The methodology provides the ER Program with a framework for (1) organizing information about identified DOE-ORO environmental problems, (2) generating qualitative assessments of the long- and short-term risks posed by DOE-ORO environmental problems, and (3) evaluating the benefits associated with candidate work packages designed to reduce those risks. Prioritization is conducted to rank ER work packages on the basis of the overall value (e.g., risk reduction, stakeholder confidence) each package provides to the ER Program. Application of the methodology yields individual work package ''scores'' and rankings that are used to develop fiscal budget requests. This document presents the technical basis for the decision support tools and process

Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdulkareem, Shaheen A; Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Mustafa, Yaseen T; Filatova, Tatiana

2018-03-20

Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed. We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior). We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of

Estimating risk factors for farm-level transmission of disease: Foot and mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul R. Bessell

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Controlling an epidemic would be aided by establishing whether particular individuals in infected populations are more likely to transmit infection. However, few analyses have characterised such individuals. Such analyses require both data on who infected whom and on the likely determinants of transmission; data that are available at the farm level for the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease epidemic in Great Britain. Using these data a putative number of daughter infected premises (IPs resulting from each IP was calculated where these daughters were within 3 km of the IP. A set of possible epidemiological, demographic, spatial and temporal risk factors were analysed, with the final multivariate generalised linear model (Poisson error term having 6 statistically significant (p<0.05 main effects including geographic area, local cattle and sheep densities, and the number of non-IP culls. This model demonstrates that farms are heterogeneous in their propensity to transmit infection to other farms and, importantly, that it may be possible to identify holdings that are at high risk of spreading disease a priori. Such information could be used to help prioritise the response to an epidemic. Keywords: Foot and mouth disease, Epidemiology, Risk modelling, Livestock, Disease control

Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...

Toward a Safety Risk-Based Classification of Unmanned Aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2016-01-01

There is a trend of growing interest and demand for greater access of unmanned aircraft (UA) to the National Airspace System (NAS) as the ongoing development of UA technology has created the potential for significant economic benefits. However, the lack of a comprehensive and efficient UA regulatory framework has constrained the number and kinds of UA operations that can be performed. This report presents initial results of a study aimed at defining a safety-risk-based UA classification as a plausible basis for a regulatory framework for UA operating in the NAS. Much of the study up to this point has been at a conceptual high level. The report includes a survey of contextual topics, analysis of safety risk considerations, and initial recommendations for a risk-based approach to safe UA operations in the NAS. The next phase of the study will develop and leverage deeper clarity and insight into practical engineering and regulatory considerations for ensuring that UA operations have an acceptable level of safety.

A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

2010-01-01

The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommendations are made as to how current practice could evolve to support a fully risk- and performance-based multipollutant air quality management system. The ability to implement a risk assessment framework in a credible and policy-relevant manner depends on the availability of component models and data which are scientifically sound and developed with an understanding of their application in integrated assessments. The same can be said about accountability assessments used to evaluate the outcomes of decisions made using such frameworks. The existing risk analysis framework, although typically applied to individual pollutants, is conceptually well suited for analyzing multipollutant management actions. Many elements of this framework, such as emissions and air quality modeling, already exist with multipollutant characteristics. However, the framework needs to be supported with information on exposure and concentration response relationships that result from multipollutant health studies. Because the causal chain that links management actions to emission reductions, air quality improvements, exposure reductions and health outcomes is parallel between prospective risk analyses and retrospective accountability assessments, both types of assessment should be placed within a single framework with common metrics and indicators where possible. Improvements in risk reductions can be obtained by adopting a multipollutant risk analysis framework within the current air quality management

Developing a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Halimi, Mansour; Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Delavari, Mahdi; Arbabi, Mohsen

2015-01-01

The strong relationship between climate and fascioliasis outbreaks enables the development of climate-based models to estimate the potential risk of fascioliasis outbreaks. This work aims to develop a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran using Ollerenshaw's fascioliasis risk index incorporating geographical information system (GIS). Using this index, a risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks for the entire country was developed. We determined that the country can be divided into 4 fascioliasis outbreak risk categories. Class 1, in which the Mt value is less than 100, includes more than 0.91 of the country's area. The climate in this class is not conducive to fascioliasis outbreaks in any month. Dryness and low temperature in the wet season (December to April) are the key barriers against fascioliasis outbreaks in this class. The risk map developed based on climatic factors indicated that only 0.03 of the country's area, including Gilan province in the northern region of Iran, is highly suitable to fascioliasis outbreaks during September to January. The Mt value is greater than 500 in this class. Heavy rainfall in the summer and fall, especially in Rasht, Astara and Bandar Anzaly (≥ 1000 mm/year), creates more suitable breeding places for snail intermediate hosts. Copyright © 2015 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

1985-01-01

Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

Pedestrian safety management using the risk-based approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romanowska Aleksandra

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a concept of a multi-level pedestrian safety management system. Three management levels are distinguished: strategic, tactical and operational. The basis for the proposed approach to pedestrian safety management is a risk-based method. In the approach the elements of behavioural and systemic theories were used, allowing for the development of a formalised and repeatable procedure integrating the phases of risk assessment and response to the hazards of road crashes involving pedestrians. Key to the method are tools supporting pedestrian safety management. According to the risk management approach, the tools can be divided into two groups: tools supporting risk assessment and tools supporting risk response. In the paper attention is paid to selected tools supporting risk assessment, with particular emphasis on the methods for estimating forecasted pedestrian safety measures (at strategic, national and regional level and identification of particularly dangerous locations in terms of pedestrian safety at tactical (regional and local and operational level. The proposed pedestrian safety management methods and tools can support road administration in making rational decisions in terms of road safety, safety of road infrastructure, crash elimination measures or reducing the consequences suffered by road users (particularly pedestrians as a result of road crashes.

Operational Risk Measurement of Chinese Commercial Banks Based on Extreme Value Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Jiashan; Li, Yong; Ji, Feng; Peng, Cheng

The financial institutions and supervision institutions have all agreed on strengthening the measurement and management of operational risks. This paper attempts to build a model on the loss of operational risks basing on Peak Over Threshold model, emphasizing on weighted least square, which improved Hill’s estimation method, while discussing the situation of small sample, and fix the sample threshold more objectively basing on the media-published data of primary banks loss on operational risk from 1994 to 2007.

Risk-based configuration control: Application of PSA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

1992-01-01

Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur, then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, to minimize the risk from components being unavailable, becomes difficult, because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. Controlling plant configuration from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser controls in areas unimportant to risk. Risk-based configuration control approaches can be used to replace parts of nuclear power plant Technical Specifications. With the advances in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technology, such approaches to improve Technical Specifications and operational safety are feasible. In this paper, we present an analysis of configuration risks, and a framework for risk-based configuration control to achieve the desired control of risk-significant configurations during plant operation

The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Barlow, S.M.; Boobis, A.R.; Bridges, J.; Cockburn, A.; Dekant, W.; Hepburn, P.; Houben, G.F.; König, J.; Nauta, M.J.; Schuermans, J.; Bánáti, D.

2015-01-01

Background: Food legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management

A stable systemic risk ranking in China's banking sector: Based on principal component analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Libing; Xiao, Binqing; Yu, Honghai; You, Qixing

2018-02-01

In this paper, we compare five popular systemic risk rankings, and apply principal component analysis (PCA) model to provide a stable systemic risk ranking for the Chinese banking sector. Our empirical results indicate that five methods suggest vastly different systemic risk rankings for the same bank, while the combined systemic risk measure based on PCA provides a reliable ranking. Furthermore, according to factor loadings of the first component, PCA combined ranking is mainly based on fundamentals instead of market price data. We clearly find that price-based rankings are not as practical a method as fundamentals-based ones. This PCA combined ranking directly shows systemic risk contributions of each bank for banking supervision purpose and reminds banks to prevent and cope with the financial crisis in advance.

Determination of the sequence of the complete open reading frame and the 5 ' NTR of the Paderborn isolate of classical swine fever virus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Oleksiewicz, Martin B.; Rasmussen, Thomas Bruun; Normann, Preben

2003-01-01

The classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in the Netherlands in 1997-1998 lasted 14 months, during which 429 infected and 1300 at risk herds were culled, at an estimated economical cost of 2 billion US dollars. Despite the overwhelming scale of the epizootic, the CSF virus (CSFV) strain causing th...

PELVIC AREA ASSESSMENT IN BUNAJI AND RAHAJI COWS ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Keywords: Fostering calving ease, pelvic area assessment, Bunaji, Rahaji. Abstract. Pelvic area (P.A.) assessment may be used as management tool to reduce the risks associated with dystocia and foster calving ease. Relationship between cow's P.A. and age can aid pre- breeding culling decisions. This study used 100 ...

Benefits of Risk Based Inspection Planning for Offshore Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Straub, D.M.; Goyet, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2006-01-01

The economical benefits of applying risk-based inspection planning (RBI) for offshore structures subject to fatigue are evaluated based on experiences from past industrial projects. To this end, the factors influencing the cost of inspection, repair and failure of structures are discussed......, the financial benefit of RBI is assessed....

Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

2012-01-01

Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose–response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials’ physical–chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

Science.gov (United States)

Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

2012-09-01

Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose-response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials' physical-chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

Modeling seasonal behavior changes and disease transmission with application to chronic wasting disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Oraby, Tamer; Vasilyeva, Olga; Krewski, Daniel; Lutscher, Frithjof

2014-01-07

Behavior and habitat of wildlife animals change seasonally according to environmental conditions. Mathematical models need to represent this seasonality to be able to make realistic predictions about the future of a population and the effectiveness of human interventions. Managing and modeling disease in wild animal populations requires particular care in that disease transmission dynamics is a critical consideration in the etiology of both human and animal diseases, with different transmission paradigms requiring different disease risk management strategies. Since transmission of infectious diseases among wildlife depends strongly on social behavior, mechanisms of disease transmission could also change seasonally. A specific consideration in this regard confronted by modellers is whether the contact rate between individuals is density-dependent or frequency-dependent. We argue that seasonal behavior changes could lead to a seasonal shift between density and frequency dependence. This hypothesis is explored in the case of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal disease that affects deer, elk and moose in many areas of North America. Specifically, we introduce a strategic CWD risk model based on direct disease transmission that accounts for the seasonal change in the transmission dynamics and habitats occupied, guided by information derived from cervid ecology. The model is composed of summer and winter susceptible-infected (SI) equations, with frequency-dependent and density-dependent transmission dynamics, respectively. The model includes impulsive birth events with density-dependent birth rate. We determine the basic reproduction number as a weighted average of two seasonal reproduction numbers. We parameterize the model from data derived from the scientific literature on CWD and deer ecology, and conduct global and local sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number. We explore the effectiveness of different culling strategies for the management of CWD

Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shouwei Li

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

Using risk based tools in emergency response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm

The use of biologically based cancer risk models in radiation epidemiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krewski, D.; Zielinski, J.M.; Hazelton, W.D.; Garner, M.J.; Moolgavkar, S.H.

2003-01-01

Biologically based risk projection models for radiation carcinogenesis seek to describe the fundamental biological processes involved in neoplastic transformation of somatic cells into malignant cancer cells. A validated biologically based model, whose parameters have a direct biological interpretation, can also be used to extrapolate cancer risks to different exposure conditions with some confidence. In this article, biologically based models for radiation carcinogenesis, including the two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model and its extensions, are reviewed. The biological and mathematical bases for such models are described, and the implications of key model parameters for cancer risk assessment examined. Specific applications of versions of the TSCE model to important epidemiologic datasets are discussed, including the Colorado uranium miners' cohort; a cohort of Chinese tin miners; the lifespan cohort of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki; and a cohort of over 200,000 workers included in the National Dose Registry (NDR) of Canada. (author)

Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

K-Anonymity Based Privacy Risk Budgeting System for Interactive Record Linkage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hye-Chung Kum

2017-04-01

The k-anonymity based privacy risk budgeting system provides a mechanism where we can concretely reason about the tradeoff between the privacy risks due to information disclosed, accuracy gained, and biases reduced during interactive record linkage.

Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de

2015-01-01

To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ"2) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue

Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN (Brazil)

2015-07-01

To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ{sup 2}) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue.

75 FR 2723 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-15

...-based pricing notice to a consumer when the creditor uses a consumer report to grant or extend credit to... consumers to combat identity theft, increase the accuracy of consumer reports, and allow consumers to... consumer report is often used in evaluating the risk posed by the consumer. Creditors that engage in risk...

Risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat: A comparison of two approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nauta, Maarten; Andersen, Jens Kirk; Tuominen, Pirkko

2015-01-01

Risk-based microbiological criteria can offer a tool to control Campylobacter in the broiler meat production chain. Recently two approaches have been applied to derive such criteria and to analyse their potential impact in terms of human health risk reduction: the risk-based version...

Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

2017-03-01

Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

A Study on the Estimation Method of Risk Based Area for Jetty Safety Monitoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Byeong-Wook Nam

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Recently, the importance of safety-monitoring systems was highlighted by the unprecedented collision between a ship and a jetty in Yeosu. Accordingly, in this study, we introduce the concept of risk based area and develop a methodology for a jetty safety-monitoring system. By calculating the risk based areas for a ship and a jetty, the risk of collision was evaluated. To calculate the risk based areas, we employed an automatic identification system for the ship, stopping-distance equations, and the regulation velocity near the jetty. In this paper, we suggest a risk calculation method for jetty safety monitoring that can determine the collision probability in real time and predict collisions using the amount of overlap between the two calculated risk based areas. A test was conducted at a jetty control center at GS Caltex, and the effectiveness of the proposed risk calculation method was verified. The method is currently applied to the jetty-monitoring system at GS Caltex in Yeosu for the prevention of collisions.

Risk-based environmental assessment for uranium mines – Some Canadian and Australian experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phaneuf, M.; McKee, M.; Woods, P.

2014-01-01

The Risk-Based Approach to Environmental Assessment in Australia: • This has emerged over the last 2 decades; • Currently usually based around the Australian and New Zealand standard (AS4360:1999) for risk assessment: • Potential impact events; • Inherent risk levels (e.g. low, moderate) using a matrix approach; • Design and operational control measures; • Residual risk levels; • Outcomes to be achieved; • Outcomes measurement criteria - • Leading to ‘compliance’ monitoring; • Leading indicator criteria - • Leading to ‘early warning’ monitoring

Integration of laboratory bioassays into the risk-based corrective action process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, D.; Messina, F.; Clark, J.

1995-01-01

Recent data generated by the Gas Research Institute (GRI) and others indicate that residual hydrocarbon may be bound/sequestered in soil such that it is unavailable for microbial degradation, and thus possibly not bioavailable to human/ecological receptors. A reduction in bioavailability would directly equate to reduced exposure and, therefore, potentially less-conservative risk-based cleanup soil goals. Laboratory bioassays which measure bioavailability/toxicity can be cost-effectively integrated into the risk-based corrective action process. However, in order to maximize the cost-effective application of bioassays several site-specific parameters should be addressed up front. This paper discusses (1) the evaluation of parameters impacting the application of bioassays to soils contaminated with metals and/or petroleum hydrocarbons and (2) the cost-effective integration of bioassays into a tiered ASTM type framework for risk-based corrective action

Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

Application of risk-based methods for inspection of nuclear power plant components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balkey, K.R.

1992-01-01

In-service inspections (ISIs) can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. All aspects of inspections, i.e., objectives, method, timing, and the acceptance criteria for detected flaws can affect the probability of component failure. Where ISI programs exist, they are primarily based on prior experience and engineering judgment. At best, some include an implicit consideration of risk (probability of failure multiplied by consequence). Since late 1988, a multidisciplined American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inspection Guidelines has been addressing the general question of how to formally incorporate risk considerations into plans and requirements for the ISI of components and structural systems. The task force and steering committee that guided the project have concluded that appropriate analytical methods exist for evaluating and quantifying risks associated with pressure boundary and structural failures. With the support of about a dozen industry and government organizations, the research group has recommended a general methodology for establishing a risk-based inspection program that could be applied to any nuclear system or structural system

Risk factors for child maltreatment in an Australian population-based birth cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Doidge, James C; Higgins, Daryl J; Delfabbro, Paul; Segal, Leonie

2017-02-01

Child maltreatment and other adverse childhood experiences adversely influence population health and socioeconomic outcomes. Knowledge of the risk factors for child maltreatment can be used to identify children at risk and may represent opportunities for prevention. We examined a range of possible child, parent and family risk factors for child maltreatment in a prospective 27-year population-based birth cohort of 2443 Australians. Physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect and witnessing of domestic violence were recorded retrospectively in early adulthood. Potential risk factors were collected prospectively during childhood or reported retrospectively. Associations were estimated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions and combined into cumulative risk scores. Higher levels of economic disadvantage, poor parental mental health and substance use, and social instability were strongly associated with increased risk of child maltreatment. Indicators of child health displayed mixed associations and infant temperament was uncorrelated to maltreatment. Some differences were observed across types of maltreatment but risk profiles were generally similar. In multivariate analyses, nine independent risk factors were identified, including some that are potentially modifiable: economic disadvantage and parental substance use problems. Risk of maltreatment increased exponentially with the number of risk factors experienced, with prevalence of maltreatment in the highest risk groups exceeding 80%. A cumulative risk score based on the independent risk factors allowed identification of individuals at very high risk of maltreatment, while a score that incorporated all significant risk and protective factors provided better identification of low-risk individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

Infective Endocarditis and Cancer Risk: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Li-Min; Wu, Jung-Nan; Lin, Cheng-Li; Day, Jen-Der; Liang, Ji-An; Liou, Li-Ren; Kao, Chia-Hung

2016-03-01

This study investigated the possible relationship between endocarditis and overall and individual cancer risk among study participants in Taiwan.We used data from the National Health Insurance program of Taiwan to conduct a population-based, observational, and retrospective cohort study. The case group consisted of 14,534 patients who were diagnosed with endocarditis between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010. For the control group, 4 patients without endocarditis were frequency matched to each endocarditis patient according to age, sex, and index year. Competing risks regression analysis was conducted to determine the effect of endocarditis on cancer risk.A large difference was noted in Charlson comorbidity index between endocarditis and nonendocarditis patients. In patients with endocarditis, the risk for developing overall cancer was significant and 119% higher than in patients without endocarditis (adjusted subhazard ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval = 1.98-2.42). Regarding individual cancers, in addition to head and neck, uterus, female breast and hematological malignancies, the risks of developing colorectal cancer, and some digestive tract cancers were significantly higher. Additional analyses determined that the association of cancer with endocarditis is stronger within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis.This population-based cohort study found that patients with endocarditis are at a higher risk for colorectal cancer and other cancers in Taiwan. The risk was even higher within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. It suggested that endocarditis is an early marker of colorectal cancer and other cancers. The underlying mechanisms must still be explored and may account for a shared risk factor of infection in both endocarditis and malignancy.

Snus and risk of gastroesophageal reflux. A population-based case-control study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lie, Tina Malene; Bomme, Maria; Hveem, Kristian

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Tobacco smoking is a risk factor for gastroesophageal reflux, but whether other tobacco products increase the risk is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate if snus increases the risk of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms (GERS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study was based...

Recognition of risk situations based on endoscopic instrument tracking and knowledge based situation modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Speidel, Stefanie; Sudra, Gunther; Senemaud, Julien; Drentschew, Maximilian; Müller-Stich, Beat Peter; Gutt, Carsten; Dillmann, Rüdiger

2008-03-01

Minimally invasive surgery has gained significantly in importance over the last decade due to the numerous advantages on patient-side. The surgeon has to adapt special operation-techniques and deal with difficulties like the complex hand-eye coordination, limited field of view and restricted mobility. To alleviate these constraints we propose to enhance the surgeon's capabilities by providing a context-aware assistance using augmented reality (AR) techniques. In order to generate a context-aware assistance it is necessary to recognize the current state of the intervention using intraoperatively gained sensor data and a model of the surgical intervention. In this paper we present the recognition of risk situations, the system warns the surgeon if an instrument gets too close to a risk structure. The context-aware assistance system starts with an image-based analysis to retrieve information from the endoscopic images. This information is classified and a semantic description is generated. The description is used to recognize the current state and launch an appropriate AR visualization. In detail we present an automatic vision-based instrument tracking to obtain the positions of the instruments. Situation recognition is performed using a knowledge representation based on a description logic system. Two augmented reality visualization programs are realized to warn the surgeon if a risk situation occurs.

Supplier Risk Assessment Based on Best-Worst Method and K-Means Clustering: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Merve Er Kara

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Supplier evaluation and selection is one of the most critical strategic decisions for developing a competitive and sustainable organization. Companies have to consider supplier related risks and threats in their purchasing decisions. In today’s competitive and risky business environment, it is very important to work with reliable suppliers. This study proposes a clustering based approach to group suppliers based on their risk profile. Suppliers of a company in the heavy-machinery sector are assessed based on 17 qualitative and quantitative risk types. The weights of the criteria are determined by using the Best-Worst method. Four factors are extracted by applying Factor Analysis to the supplier risk data. Then k-means clustering algorithm is applied to group core suppliers of the company based on the four risk factors. Three clusters are created with different risk exposure levels. The interpretation of the results provides insights for risk management actions and supplier development programs to mitigate supplier risk.

Neural Network-Based Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Using Feature Correlation Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae Kwon Kim

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Of the machine learning techniques used in predicting coronary heart disease (CHD, neural network (NN is popularly used to improve performance accuracy. Objective. Even though NN-based systems provide meaningful results based on clinical experiments, medical experts are not satisfied with their predictive performances because NN is trained in a “black-box” style. Method. We sought to devise an NN-based prediction of CHD risk using feature correlation analysis (NN-FCA using two stages. First, the feature selection stage, which makes features acceding to the importance in predicting CHD risk, is ranked, and second, the feature correlation analysis stage, during which one learns about the existence of correlations between feature relations and the data of each NN predictor output, is determined. Result. Of the 4146 individuals in the Korean dataset evaluated, 3031 had low CHD risk and 1115 had CHD high risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve of the proposed model (0.749 ± 0.010 was larger than the Framingham risk score (FRS (0.393 ± 0.010. Conclusions. The proposed NN-FCA, which utilizes feature correlation analysis, was found to be better than FRS in terms of CHD risk prediction. Furthermore, the proposed model resulted in a larger ROC curve and more accurate predictions of CHD risk in the Korean population than the FRS.

Evaluation of the performance of existing non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background The high burden and rising incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in resource constrained countries necessitates implementation of robust and pragmatic primary and secondary prevention strategies. Many current CVD management guidelines recommend absolute cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment as a clinically sound guide to preventive and treatment strategies. Development of non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms enable absolute risk assessment in resource constrained countries. The objective of this review is to evaluate the performance of existing non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms using the benchmarks for clinically useful CV risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Methods A literature search to identify non-laboratory based risk prediction algorithms was performed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Ovid Premier Nursing Journals Plus, and PubMed databases. The identified algorithms were evaluated using the benchmarks for clinically useful cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Results Five non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms were identified. The Gaziano and Framingham algorithms met the criteria for appropriateness of statistical methods used to derive the algorithms and endpoints. The Swedish Consultation, Framingham and Gaziano algorithms demonstrated good discrimination in derivation datasets. Only the Gaziano algorithm was externally validated where it had optimal discrimination. The Gaziano and WHO algorithms had chart formats which made them simple and user friendly for clinical application. Conclusion Both the Gaziano and Framingham non-laboratory based algorithms met most of the criteria outlined by Cooney and colleagues. External validation of the algorithms in diverse samples is needed to ascertain their performance and applicability to different populations and to enhance clinicians’ confidence in them. PMID:24373202

German data for risk based fire safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roewekamp, M.; Berg, H.P.

1998-01-01

Different types of data are necessary to perform risk based fire safety assessments and, in particular, to quantify the fire event tree considering the plant specific conditions. Data on fire barriers, fire detection and extinguishing, including also data on secondary effects of a fire, have to be used for quantifying the potential hazard and damage states. The existing German database on fires in nuclear power plants (NPPs) is very small. Therefore, in general generic data, mainly from US databases, are used for risk based safety assessments. Due to several differences in the plant design and conditions generic data can only be used as conservative assumptions. World-wide existing generic data on personnel failures in case of fire fighting have only to be adapted to the plant specific conditions inside the NPP to be investigated. In contrary, unavailabilities of fire barrier elements may differ strongly depending on different standards, testing requirements, etc. In addition, the operational behaviour of active fire protection equipment may vary depending on type and manufacturer. The necessity for more detailed and for additional plant specific data was the main reason for generating updated German data on the operational behaviour of active fire protection equipment/features in NPPs to support risk based fire safety analyses being recommended to be carried out as an additional tool to deterministic fire hazard analyses in the frame of safety reviews. The results of these investigations revealed a broader and more realistic database for technical reliability of active fire protection means, but improvements as well as collection of further data are still necessary. (author)

Risk-based analyses in support of California hazardous site remediation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringland, J.T.

1995-08-01

The California Environmental Enterprise (CEE) is a joint program of the Department of Energy (DOE), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Its goal is to make DOE laboratory expertise accessible to hazardous site cleanups in the state This support might involve working directly with parties responsible for individual cleanups or it might involve working with the California Environmental Protection Agency to develop tools that would be applicable across a broad range of sites. As part of its initial year's activities, the CEE supported a review to examine where laboratory risk and risk-based systems analysis capabilities might be most effectively applied. To this end, this study draws the following observations. The labs have a clear role in analyses supporting the demonstration and transfer of laboratory characterization or remediation technologies. The labs may have opportunities in developing broadly applicable analysis tools and computer codes for problems such as site characterization or efficient management of resources. Analysis at individual sites, separate from supporting lab technologies or prototyping general tools, may be appropriate only in limited circumstances. In any of these roles, the labs' capabilities extend beyond health risk assessment to the broader areas of risk management and risk-based systems analysis

76 FR 35138 - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Farmer Mac Risk-Based...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-16

... Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Farmer Mac Risk-Based Capital Stress Test, Version 5.0 AGENCY: Farm Credit... credit rating agency) in regulations addressing the Risk-Based Capital Stress Test (RBCST or stress test...) (repealing and replacing Pub. L. 110-234). B. Risk-Based Capital and Credit Ratings Under our rules, Farmer...

Waste management project’s alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We examine the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives. ► We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. ► In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project’s alternatives. ► Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is examined. ► Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives’ B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project’s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

Eielson Air Force Base OU-1 baseline risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jarvis, M.T.; Jarvis, T.T.; Van Houten, N.C.; Lewis, R.E.

1993-09-01

This Baseline Risk Assessment report is the second volume in a set of three volumes for operable Unit 1 (OU-1). The companion documents contain the Remedial Investigation and the Feasibility Study. Operable Unit 1 (OU-1) is one of several groups of hazardous waste sites located at Eielson Air Force Base (AFB) near Fairbanks, Alaska. The operable units at Eielson are typically characterized by petroleum, oil, lubricant/solvent contamination, and by the presence of organics floating at the water table. In 1989 and 1990, firms under contract to the Air Force conducted field studies to gather information about the extent of chemical contamination in soil, groundwater, and soil air pore space (soil gas) at the site. This report documents the results of a baseline risk assessment, which uses the 1989 and 1991 site characterization database to quantify the potential human health risk associated with past Base industrial activities in the vicinity of OU-1. Background data collected in 1992 were also used in the preparation of this report

Identifying and Mitigating the Impact of the Budget Control Act on High Risk Sectors and Tiers of the Defense Industrial Base: Assessment Approach to Industrial Base Risks

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-30

Ü~åÖÉ= - 351 - products, similar to those found in a bill of material. Figure 3 provides an example of the relationship between sectors , sub- sectors ...defense aircraft. Defense aircraft are divided in three main sub- sectors : fixed-wing, rotary wing, and unmanned systems. The fixed-wing sub- sector ...Risk Sectors and Tiers of the Defense Industrial Base: Assessment Approach to Industrial Base Risks Lirio Avilés, Engineer, MIBP, OUSD(AT&L) Sally

Develop risk-based procurement management tools for SMEs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Staal, Anne; Hagelaar, Geoffrey; Walhof, Gert; Holman, Richard

2016-01-01

This paper provides guidance for developing risk-based management tools to improve the procurement (purchasing) performance of SMEs. Extant academic literature only offers little support on developing such tools and does not consider the wide variety of SMEs. The paper defines a procurement tool for

6 CFR 27.230 - Risk-based performance standards.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based performance standards. 27.230 Section 27.230 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CHEMICAL FACILITY... the facility and that discourages abuse through established disciplinary measures; (4) Deter, Detect...

Studies on fertility in dairy cattle based on analysis of AI data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, J.

1986-01-01

Fertility is one of the non-yield traits which is of great economic importance in dairy herds. Reduced fertility results in prolonged calving intervals and an increased culling rate. Both are undesirable. Fertility problems account for about 30% of all disposals.

In this thesis it

RISK MANAGEMENT AUTOMATION OF SOFTWARE PROJECTS BASED ОN FUZZY INFERENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. M. Zubkova

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Application suitability for one of the intelligent methods for risk management of software projects has been shown based on the review of existing algorithms for fuzzy inference in the field of applied problems. Information sources in the management of software projects are analyzed; major and minor risks are highlighted. The most critical parameters have been singled out giving the possibility to estimate the occurrence of an adverse situations (project duration, the frequency of customer’s requirements changing, work deadlines, experience of developers’ participation in such projects and others.. The method of qualitative fuzzy description based on fuzzy logic has been developed for analysis of these parameters. Evaluation of possible situations and knowledge base formation rely on a survey of experts. The main limitations of existing automated systems have been identified in relation to their applicability to risk management in the software design. Theoretical research set the stage for software system that makes it possible to automate the risk management process for software projects. The developed software system automates the process of fuzzy inference in the following stages: rule base formation of the fuzzy inference systems, fuzzification of input variables, aggregation of sub-conditions, activation and accumulation of conclusions for fuzzy production rules, variables defuzzification. The result of risk management automation process in the software design is their quantitative and qualitative assessment and expert advice for their minimization. Practical significance of the work lies in the fact that implementation of the developed automated system gives the possibility for performance improvement of software projects.

Validation of risk-based performance indicators: Safety system function trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Azarm, M.A.; Carbonaro, J.F.; Usher, J.L.; Oden, N.

1989-10-01

This report describes and applies a process for validating a model for a risk-based performance indicator. The purpose of the risk-based indicator evaluated, Safety System Function Trend (SSFT), is to monitor the unavailability of selected safety systems. Interim validation of this indicator is based on three aspects: a theoretical basis, an empirical basis relying on statistical correlations, and case studies employing 25 plant years of historical data collected from five plants for a number of safety systems. Results using the SSFT model are encouraging. Application of the model through case studies dealing with the performance of important safety systems shows that statistically significant trends in, and levels of, system performance can be discerned which thereby can provide leading indications of degrading and/or improving performances. Methods for developing system performance tolerance bounds are discussed and applied to aid in the interpretation of the trends in this risk-based indicator. Some additional characteristics of the SSFT indicator, learned through the data-collection efforts and subsequent data analyses performed, are also discussed. The usefulness and practicality of other data sources for validation purposes are explored. Further validation of this indicator is noted. Also, additional research is underway in developing a more detailed estimator of system unavailability. 9 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

2011-11-01

Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RIMAP demonstration project. Risk-based life management of piping system in power plant Heilbronn

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bareiss, J.; Buck, P.; Matschecko, B.; Jovanovic, A.; Balos, D.; Perunicic, M.

2004-01-01

In the framework of EU project RIMAP [Risk Based Inspection and Maintenance Procedures for European Industry (2000)] a new European Guideline for optimized risk based maintenance and inspection planning of industrial plants (RBLM, Risk Based Life Management) is being developed. The RIMAP project consists of the three clustered projects: - development (RTD); - demonstration (DEMO): - thematic network (TN). Current work and future, planned work in RIMAP demonstration project on applications of the RIMAP methodology in power plants are presented briefly in the first part of the paper. Also presented in the paper are the results of a preliminary analysis of piping system in power plant Heilbronn using the concept of risk-based monitoring as part of overall concept of risk-based life management. Shortly the following issues are discussed in the paper: - identification of critical components; - application of a multilevel risk analysis (...from 'screening' to 'detailed analysis'); - determination of PoF (Probability of Failure); - determination of CoF (Consequence of Failure); - optimation of inspection and maintenance plan. From our experience with the application of the RIMAP methodology the following conclusions can be drawn: The use of risk-based methods in inspection and maintenance of piping systems in power plants gives transparency to the decision making process and gives an optimized maintenance policy based on current state of the components. The results of the work clearly show the power of the proposed method for concentration on critical items: out of 64 monitored components 5 were selected for intermediate analysis and only 1 for the detailed analysis (probabilistic high temperature fracture mechanics)

Configuration control based on risk matrix for radiotherapy treatment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Montes de Oca Quinnones, Joe; Torres Valle, Antonio

2015-01-01

The incorporation of the science and technique breakthroughs in the application of the radiotherapy represents a challenge so that, the appearance of equipment failure or human mistakes that triggers unfavorable consequences for patients, public, or the occupationally exposed workers; it is also diversified forcing to incorporate besides, as part of the efforts, new techniques for the evaluation of risk and the detection of the weak points that can lead to these consequences. In order to evaluate the risks of the radiotherapy practices there is the SEVRRA code, based on the method of Risk Matrix. The system SEVRRA is the most frequently used code in the applications of risk studies in radiotherapy treatment. On the other hand, starting from the development of tools to control the dangerous configurations in nuclear power plants, it has been developed the SECURE code, which in its application variant of Risk Matrix, has gain a comfortable interface man-machine to make risk analyses to the radiotherapy treatment, molding in this way a lot of combinations of scenarios. These capacities outstandingly facilitate the studies and risk optimization applications in these practices. In the system SECURE-Risk Matrix are incorporated graphic and analytical capacities, which make more flexible the analyses and the subsequent documentation of all the results. The paper shows the the application of the proposed system to an integral risk study for the process of radiotherapy treatment with linear accelerator. (Author)

Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Using Bayesian Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2011-01-01

This paper describes how risk-based decision making can be used for maintenance planning of components exposed to degradation such as fatigue in offshore wind turbines. In fatigue models, large epistemic uncertainties are usually present. These can be reduced if monitoring results are used to upd...

Perceptions of risk in adults with a low or high risk profile of developing type 2 diabetes; a cross sectional population-bases study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adriaanse, M.C.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Dekker, J.M.; Spijkerman, A.M.W.; Nijpels, G.; Heine, R.J.; Snoek, F.J.

2008-01-01

Objective: To compare the perceived seriousness and risk of type 2 diabetes among low risk with high risk profile non-diabetic subjects and examine the relationship of perceived risk with multiple self-reported risk indicators. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study among 4435 low risk

The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

Science.gov (United States)

Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

2013-01-01

AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, R. M.

2017-12-01

Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

A Risk-Based Approach for Asset Allocation with A Defaultable Share

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Shen

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a novel risk-based approach for an optimal asset allocation problem with default risk, where a money market account, an ordinary share and a defaultable security are investment opportunities in a general non-Markovian economy incorporating random market parameters. The objective of an investor is to select an optimal mix of these securities such that a risk metric of an investment portfolio is minimized. By adopting a sub-additive convex risk measure, which takes into account interest rate risk, as a measure for risk, the investment problem is discussed mathematically in a form of a two-player, zero-sum, stochastic differential game between the investor and the market. A backward stochastic differential equation approach is used to provide a flexible and theoretically sound way to solve the game problem. Closed-form expressions for the optimal strategies of the investor and the market are obtained when the penalty function is a quadratic function and when the risk measure is a sub-additive coherent risk measure. An important case of the general non-Markovian model, namely the self-exciting threshold diffusion model with time delay, is considered. Numerical examples based on simulations for the self-exciting threshold diffusion model with and without time delay are provided to illustrate how the proposed model can be applied in this important case. The proposed model can be implemented using Excel spreadsheets.

A risk-based decision-aiding tool for waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiner, R.F.; Reiser, A.S.; Elcock, C.G.; Nevins, S.

1997-01-01

N-CART (the National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program Cost Analysis and Risk Tool) is being developed to aid in low-risk, cost-effective, timely management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and can therefore be used in management of mixed waste. N-CART provides evaluation of multiple alternatives and presents the consequences of proposed waste management activities in a clear and concise format. N-CART's decision-aiding analyses include comparisons and sensitivity analyses of multiple alternatives and allows the user to perform quick turn-around open-quotes what ifclose quotes studies to investigate various scenarios. Uncertainties in data (such as cost and schedule of various activities) are represented as distributions. N-CART centralizes documentation of the bases of program alternatives and program decisions, thereby supporting responses to stakeholders concerns. The initial N-CART design considers regulatory requirements, costs, and schedules for alternative courses of action. The final design will include risks (public health, occupational, economic, scheduling), economic benefits, and the impacts of secondary waste generation. An optimization tool is being incorporated that allows the user to specify the relative importance of cost, time risks, and other bases for decisions. The N-CART prototype can be used to compare the costs and schedules of disposal alternatives for mixed low-level radioactive waste (MLLW) and greater-than-Class-C (GTCC) waste, as well as spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and related scrap material

Risk-based management system development for the Advanced Test Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, M.L.; Eide, S.A.

1990-01-01

A Risk-Based Management System (RBMS) is being developed to facilitate the use of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment to support ATR operation. Most ATR RBMS questions can best be answered using the System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA) developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. However, some applications may require employment of the other four codes used to develop and report the PRA. These four codes include the Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS), SETS, ETA-II, and the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). The ATR RBMS will evolve over three years, and will include the results of the Level 3 and external events analysis

A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.

Science.gov (United States)

Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty

2013-09-01

Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

An operative dengue risk stratification system in Argentina based on geospatial technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ximena Porcasi

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Based on an agreement between the Ministry of Health and the National Space Activities Commission in Argentina, an integrated informatics platform for dengue risk using geospatial technology for the surveillance and prediction of risk areas for dengue fever has been designed. The task was focused on developing stratification based on environmental (historical and current, viral, social and entomological situation for >3,000 cities as part of a system. The platform, developed with open-source software with pattern design, following the European Space Agency standards for space informatics, delivers two products: a national risk map consisting of point vectors for each city/town/locality and an approximate 50 m resolution urban risk map modelling the risk inside selected high-risk cities. The operative system, architecture and tools used in the development are described, including a detailed list of end users’ requirements. Additionally, an algorithm based on bibliography and landscape epidemiology concepts is presented and discussed. The system, in operation since September 2011, is capable of continuously improving the algorithms producing improved risk stratifications without a complete set of inputs. The platform was specifically developed for surveillance of dengue fever as this disease has reemerged in Argentina but the aim is to widen the scope to include also other relevant vector-borne diseases such as chagas, malaria and leishmaniasis as well as other countries belonging to south region of Latin America.

Comparing badger (Meles meles) management strategies for reducing tuberculosis incidence in cattle.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Graham C; McDonald, Robbie A; Wilkinson, David

2012-01-01

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, continues to be a serious economic problem for the British cattle industry. The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) is partly responsible for maintenance of the disease and its transmission to cattle. Previous attempts to manage the disease by culling badgers have been hampered by social perturbation, which in some situations is associated with increases in the cattle herd incidence of bTB. Following the licensing of an injectable vaccine, we consider the relative merits of management strategies to reduce bTB in badgers, and thereby reduce cattle herd incidence. We used an established simulation model of the badger-cattle-TB system and investigated four proposed strategies: business as usual with no badger management, large-scale proactive badger culling, badger vaccination, and culling with a ring of vaccination around it. For ease of comparison with empirical data, model treatments were applied over 150 km(2) and were evaluated over the whole of a 300 km(2) area, comprising the core treatment area and a ring of approximately 2 km. The effects of treatment were evaluated over a 10-year period comprising treatment for five years and the subsequent five year period without treatment. Against a background of existing disease control measures, where 144 cattle herd incidents might be expected over 10 years, badger culling prevented 26 cattle herd incidents while vaccination prevented 16. Culling in the core 150 km(2) plus vaccination in a ring around it prevented about 40 cattle herd breakdowns by partly mitigating the negative effects of culling, although this approach clearly required greater effort. While model outcomes were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimates, the outcomes of culling were sensitive to low rates of land access for culling, low culling efficacy, and the early cessation of a culling strategy, all of which were likely to lead to an overall increase in cattle disease.

Comparing badger (Meles meles management strategies for reducing tuberculosis incidence in cattle.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Graham C Smith

Full Text Available Bovine tuberculosis (bTB, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, continues to be a serious economic problem for the British cattle industry. The Eurasian badger (Meles meles is partly responsible for maintenance of the disease and its transmission to cattle. Previous attempts to manage the disease by culling badgers have been hampered by social perturbation, which in some situations is associated with increases in the cattle herd incidence of bTB. Following the licensing of an injectable vaccine, we consider the relative merits of management strategies to reduce bTB in badgers, and thereby reduce cattle herd incidence. We used an established simulation model of the badger-cattle-TB system and investigated four proposed strategies: business as usual with no badger management, large-scale proactive badger culling, badger vaccination, and culling with a ring of vaccination around it. For ease of comparison with empirical data, model treatments were applied over 150 km(2 and were evaluated over the whole of a 300 km(2 area, comprising the core treatment area and a ring of approximately 2 km. The effects of treatment were evaluated over a 10-year period comprising treatment for five years and the subsequent five year period without treatment. Against a background of existing disease control measures, where 144 cattle herd incidents might be expected over 10 years, badger culling prevented 26 cattle herd incidents while vaccination prevented 16. Culling in the core 150 km(2 plus vaccination in a ring around it prevented about 40 cattle herd breakdowns by partly mitigating the negative effects of culling, although this approach clearly required greater effort. While model outcomes were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimates, the outcomes of culling were sensitive to low rates of land access for culling, low culling efficacy, and the early cessation of a culling strategy, all of which were likely to lead to an overall increase in cattle disease.

Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gran, Bjorn Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J.

2007-01-01

This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development

Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjorn Axel [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: bjorn.axel.gran@hrp.no; Fredriksen, Rune [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: rune.fredriksen@hrp.no; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J. [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: atoosa.p-j.thunem@hrp.no

2007-11-15

This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development.

Risk-based analysis methods applied to nuclear power plant technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

1989-01-01

A computer-aided methodology and practical applications of risk-based evaluation of technical specifications are described. The methodology, developed for use by the utility industry, is a part of the overall process of improving nuclear power plant technical specifications. The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a probabilistic risk assessment or a system-level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at the plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns and decreasing labor requirements for test and maintenance activities, with no adverse impacts on risk. The methodology and the SOCRATES computer program have been used extensively toe valuate several actual technical specifications in case studies demonstrating the methods. Summaries of these applications demonstrate the types of results achieved and the usefulness of the risk-based evaluation in improving the technical specifications

The Risks and Rewards of Value-Based Reimbursement.