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Sample records for risk based culling

  1. Metabolic predictors of post-partum disease and culling risk in dairy cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifi, Hesam A; Leblanc, Stephen J; Leslie, Ken E; Duffield, Todd F

    2011-05-01

    A retrospective study was conducted to determine the relationship between serum non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA), β-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA), glucose and calcium (Ca) with the occurrence of displaced abomasum (DA), clinical ketosis and culling in Holstein cows. Eight hundred and forty-nine cows from 16 farms were sampled weekly for the first 3 weeks post-partum. The cows were under clinical observation from calving until 60 days in milk (DIM) and during this time there were 22 cases of DA, 31 cases of clinical ketosis and 39 cows were culled. Elevated concentrations of BHBA were associated with DA, clinical ketosis and culling. In the first week after calving, cows with serum BHBA ≥1000μmol/L had 13.6 times greater odds of developing DA than cows with lower values. Serum NEFA and BHBA concentrations during week 1 were associated with the subsequent occurrence of clinical ketosis. The odds of clinical ketosis were 6.3 times greater in cows with serum NEFA ≥ 1.0mmol/L in the first week after calving. In addition, cows with BHB ≥1200μmol/L in the first week after calving, were at 4.7 times greater risk of developing clinical ketosis. In the first and second weeks after calving the serum Ca concentration was associated with subsequent culling. In addition, cows with NEFA concentration ≥ 1.0mmol/L were 3.6 times more likely to be culled within the following 2 months. The study indicated that early post-partum serum BHBA, NEFA and Ca concentrations have potential as indicators of disease and culling risk in dairy cows. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Contextual herd factors associated with cow culling risk in Québec dairy herds: A multilevel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haine, Denis; Delgado, Hector; Cue, Roger; Sewalem, Asheber; Wade, Kevin; Lacroix, René; Lefebvre, Daniel; Arsenault, Julie; Bouchard, Émile; Dubuc, Jocelyn

    2017-09-01

    Several health disorders, such as milk fever, displaced abomasum, and mastitis, as well as impaired reproductive performance, are known risk factors for the removal of affected cows from a dairy herd. While cow-level risk factors are well documented in the literature, herd-level associations have been less frequently investigated. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of cow- and herd-level determinants on variations in culling risk in Québec dairy herds: whether herd influences a cow's culling risk. For this, we assessed the influence of herd membership on cow culling risk according to displaced abomasum, milk fever, and retained placenta. A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted on data from dairy herds in the Province of Québec, Canada, by extracting health information events from the dairy herd health management software used by most Québec dairy producers and their veterinarians. Data were extracted for all lactations starting between January 1st and December 31st, 2010. Using multilevel logistic regression, we analysed a total of 10,529 cows from 201 herds that met the inclusion criteria. Milk fever and displaced abomasum were demonstrated to increase the cow culling risk. A minor general herd effect was found for the culling risk (i.e. an intra-class correlation of 1.0% and median odds ratio [MOR] of 1.20). The proportion of first lactation cows was responsible for this significant, but weak herd effect on individual cow culling risk, after taking into account the cow-level factors. On the other hand, the herd's average milk production was a protective factor. The planning and management of forthcoming replacement animals has to be taken into consideration when assessing cow culling risks and herd culling rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. A multivariable assessment quantifying effects of cohort-level factors associated with combined mortality and culling risk in cohorts of U.S. commercial feedlot cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, A H; Cernicchiaro, N; White, B J; Dubnicka, S R; Thomson, D U; Ives, S E; Scott, H M; Milliken, G A; Renter, D G

    2013-01-01

    Economic losses due to cattle mortality and culling have a substantial impact on the feedlot industry. Since criteria for culling may vary and may affect measures of cumulative mortality within cattle cohorts, it is important to assess both mortality and culling when evaluating cattle losses over time and among feedlots. To date, there are no published multivariable assessments of factors associated with combined mortality and culling risk. Our objective was to evaluate combined mortality and culling losses in feedlot cattle cohorts and quantify effects of commonly measured cohort-level risk factors (weight at feedlot arrival, gender, and month of feedlot arrival) using data routinely collected by commercial feedlots. We used retrospective data representing 8,904,965 animals in 54,416 cohorts from 16 U.S. feedlots from 2000 to 2007. The sum of mortality and culling counts for each cohort (given the number of cattle at risk) was used to generate the outcome of interest, the cumulative incidence of combined mortality and culling. Associations between this outcome variable and cohort-level risk factors were evaluated using a mixed effects multivariable negative binomial regression model with random effects for feedlot, year, month and week of arrival. Mean arrival weight of the cohort, gender, and arrival month and a three-way interaction (and corresponding two-way interactions) among arrival weight, gender and month were significantly (Prisk decreased, but effects of arrival weight were modified both by the gender of the cohort and the month of feedlot arrival. There was a seasonal pattern in combined mortality and culling risk for light and middle-weight male and female cohorts, with a significantly (Prisk for cattle arriving at the feedlot in spring and summer (March-September) than in cattle arriving during fall, and winter months (November-February). Our results quantified effects of covariate patterns that have been heretofore difficult to fully evaluate in

  4. Test and cull of high risk Coxiella burnetii infected pregnant dairy goats is not feasible due to poor test performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogerwerf, L.; Koop, G.; Klinkenberg, D.; Roest, H.J.; Vellema, P.; Nielen, M.

    2014-01-01

    A major human Q fever epidemic occurred in The Netherlands during 2007–2009. In response, all pregnant goats from infected herds were culled before the 2010 kidding season without individual testing. The aim of this study was to assess whether high risk animals from recently infected naive herds can

  5. Test and cull of high risk Coxiella burnetii infected pregnant dairy goats is not feasible due to poor test performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogerwerf, Lenny; Koop, Gerrit; Klinkenberg, Don; Roest, Hendrik I J; Vellema, Piet; Nielen, Mirjam

    2014-01-01

    A major human Q fever epidemic occurred in The Netherlands during 2007-2009. In response, all pregnant goats from infected herds were culled before the 2010 kidding season without individual testing. The aim of this study was to assess whether high risk animals from recently infected naive herds can

  6. Test and cull of high risk Coxiella burnetii infected pregnant dairy goats is not feasible due to poor test performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogerwerf, Lenny; Koop, Gerrit; Klinkenberg, Don; Roest, Hendrik I J; Vellema, Piet; Nielen, Mirjam

    2014-05-01

    A major human Q fever epidemic occurred in The Netherlands during 2007-2009. In response, all pregnant goats from infected herds were culled before the 2010 kidding season without individual testing. The aim of this study was to assess whether high risk animals from recently infected naive herds can be identified by diagnostic testing. Samples of uterine fluid, milk and vaginal mucus from 203 euthanized pregnant goats were tested by PCR or ELISA. The results suggest that testing followed by culling of only the high risk animals is not a feasible method for protecting public health, mainly due to the low specificity of the tests and variability between herds. The risk of massive bacterial shedding during abortion or parturition can only be prevented by removal of all pregnant animals from naive recently infected herds. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Retrospective evaluation of milk production and culling risk following either surgical, toggle-pin suture or conservative treatment of left displaced abomasum in Chilean dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melendez, P; Romero, C; Pithua, P; Marin, M P; Pinedo, P; Duchens, M

    2017-11-01

    AIMS To describe milk yield and culling risk in cows diagnosed with left displacement of abomasum (LDA) treated either conservatively, by right flank pyloric omentopexy, or rolling and toggling, compared with normal herdmates from four Chilean dairy herds. METHODS Historical records were obtained from four commercial dairy farms located in Central Chile for cows with a history of LDA between 2010 and 2012, and healthy herdmates. Cows with LDA were categorised into three groups: cows treated with right omentopexy (ST, n=58), cows treated by toggle suturing (TT, n=15) and cows treated conservatively (CT, n=56). Control cows (n=129) were selected from unaffected cows, matched by days in milk (DIM), parity and herd with affected cows. Groups were compared for risk of culling up to 300 DIM and for milk production up to 5 months of lactation using survival and Cox proportional hazard models and mixed models for repeated measures, respectively. RESULTS Compared with cows in the Control group, the risk of being culled up to 300 DIM was 9.1 (SE 0.62) times greater in ST cows, 10.4 (SE 0.68) times greater in TT cows, and 37.3 (SE 0.61) times greater in CT cows (pcows in the Control group, mean daily milk production was 23.3 (SE 1.5) kg less in ST cows, 15.3 (SE 1.6) kg less in TT cows, and 30.1 (SE 1.3) kg less in CT cows (pCows in four dairy herds in central Chile diagnosed and treated for LDA produced significantly less milk and had a higher risk of culling than healthy herdmates. Although cows treated surgically or with toggle suture never recovered to the extent of healthy cows, they produced more milk than cows treated conservatively. However, the retrospective nature of the data, the inclusion of only four herds and the non-random allocation to treatments means that these conclusions cannot be extrapolated to the overall dairy cattle population in Chile.

  8. Strategies for time of culling in control of paratuberculosis in dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kudahl, Anne Margrethe Braad; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Østergaard, Søren

    2011-01-01

    Effect of time for culling cows infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis on prevalence and profitability was identified through simulations. Seven test-and-cull strategies with different culling criteria and no attempts to close infection routes were compared with strategies with (1...... would be the most effective culling strategy to reduce prevalence. However, closing transmission routes was even more effective in reducing the prevalence. In the first 3 to 6 yr, all test-and-cull strategies reduced gross margin by US$5 to 55/stall per year. These losses were fully compensated...... the ranking between the different culling strategies. Increased market price (20%) of replacement heifers made all culling strategies less profitable and made culling based on a milk yield criterion the most profitable culling strategy for a longer period (11 to 13 yr). A 20% reduction in heifer price made...

  9. Mycoplasma mastitis in cattle: To cull or not to cull.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas, Robin A J; Fox, Larry K; Lysnyansky, Inna

    2016-10-01

    Bovine mastitis caused by mycoplasmas, in particular Mycoplasma bovis, is a major problem for milk production and animal welfare in large dairy herds in the USA and a serious, although sporadic, disease in Europe and the Middle East. It causes severe damage to the udder of cattle and is largely untreatable by chemotherapy. Mycoplasma mastitis has a distinct epidemiology and a unique set of risk factors, the most important of which is large herd size. The disease is often self-limiting, disappearing within months of outbreaks, sometimes without deliberate intervention. Improved molecular diagnostic tests are leading to more rapid detection of mycoplasmas. Typing tests, such as multi-locus sequence typing, can help trace the source of outbreaks. An approach to successful control is proposed, which involves regular monitoring and rapid segregation or culling of infected cows. Serious consideration should be given by owners of healthy dairy herds to the purchase of M. bovis-free replacements. Increased cases of disease could occur in Europe and Israel if the trend for larger dairy herds continues. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Culling from the herd's perspective-Exploring herd-level management factors and culling rates in Québec dairy herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haine, Denis; Delgado, Hector; Cue, Roger; Sewalem, Asheber; Wade, Kevin; Lacroix, René; Lefebvre, Daniel; Arsenault, Julie; Bouchard, Émile; Dubuc, Jocelyn

    2017-11-01

    The relationship between cows' health, reproductive performance or disorders and their longevity is well demonstrated in the literature. However these associations at the cow level might not hold true at the herd level, and herd-level variables can modify cow-level outcomes independently of the cows' characteristics. The interaction between cow-level and herd-level variables is a relevant issue for understanding the culling of dairy cows. However it requires the appropriate group-level variables to assess any contextual effect. Based on 10 years of health and production data, the objectives of this paper are:(a) to quantify the culling rates of dairy herds in Québec; (b) to determine the profiles of the herds based on herd-level factors, such as demographics, reproduction, production and health indicators, and whether these profiles can be related to herd culling rates for use as potential contextual variables in multilevel modelling of culling risk. A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted on data from dairy herds in Québec, Canada, by extracting health information events from the dairy herd health management software used by most Québec producers and their veterinarians. Data were extracted for all lactations taking place between January 1st, 2001 and December 31st, 2010. A total of 432,733 lactations from 156,409 cows out of 763 herds were available for analysis. Thirty cow-level variables were aggregated for each herd and years of follow-up, and their relationship was investigated by Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA). The overall annual culling rate was 32%, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of [31.6%,32.5%]. The dairy sale rate by 60 days in milk (DIM) was 3.2% [2.8%,3.6%]. The annual culling rate within 60 DIM was 8.2% [7.9%,8.4%]. The explained variance for each axis from the MFA was very low: 14.8% for the first axis and 13.1% for the second. From the MFA results, we conclude there is no relationship between the groups of herd-level indicators

  11. Strategies for time of culling in control of paratuberculosis in dairy herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudahl, A B; Nielsen, S S; Ostergaard, S

    2011-08-01

    based on a milk yield criterion the most profitable culling strategy for a longer period (11 to 13 yr). A 20% reduction in heifer price made immediate culling after a positive test the most profitable strategy overall in herds with typical reproduction, and after 9 yr in herd with poor reproduction. To conclude, the ideal culling strategy depends on the aim of intervention, the time horizon, and the reproductive capabilities combined with prices of replacement animals. Copyright © 2011 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Indicators of cull in western Oregon conifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul E. Aho

    1982-01-01

    Descriptions and color photographs of important fungal sporophores (conks), other indicators of cull (wounds), and associated decays in western Oregon conifers are provided to aid timber markers, cruisers, and scalers in identifying them. Cull factors are given for the indicators by tree species.

  13. 7 CFR 51.343 - Culls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards, Inspections, Marketing Practices), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE REGULATIONS AND STANDARDS UNDER THE AGRICULTURAL MARKETING ACT OF 1946... Standards for Grades of Apples for Processing Culls § 51.343 Culls. “Culls” consist of apples which fail to...

  14. The effect of badger culling on breakdown prolongation and recurrence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herds in Great Britain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katerina Karolemeas

    Full Text Available Bovine tuberculosis is endemic in cattle herds in Great Britain, with a substantial economic impact. A reservoir of Mycobacterium bovis within the Eurasian badger (Meles meles population is thought to have hindered disease control. Cattle herd incidents, termed breakdowns, that are either 'prolonged' (lasting ≥ 240 days or 'recurrent' (with another breakdown within a specified time period may be important foci for onward spread of infection. They drain veterinary resources and can be demoralising for farmers. Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT data were re-analysed to examine the effects of two culling strategies on breakdown prolongation and recurrence, during and after culling, using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Separate effect estimates were obtained for the 'core' trial areas (where culling occurred and the 'buffer' zones (up to 2 km outside of the core areas. For breakdowns that started during the culling period, 'reactive' (localised culling was associated with marginally increased odds of prolongation, with an odds ratio (OR of 1.7 (95% credible interval [CI] 1.1-2.4 within the core areas. This effect was not present after the culling ceased. There was no notable effect of 'proactive' culling on prolongation. In contrast, reactive culling had no effect on breakdown recurrence, though there was evidence of a reduced risk of recurrence in proactive core areas during the culling period (ORs and 95% CIs: 0.82 (0.64-1.0 and 0.69 (0.54-0.86 for 24- and 36-month recurrence respectively. Again these effects were not present after the culling ceased. There seemed to be no effect of culling on breakdown prolongation or recurrence in the buffer zones. These results suggest that the RBCT badger culling strategies are unlikely to reduce either the prolongation or recurrence of breakdowns in the long term, and that reactive strategies (such as employed during the RBCT are, if anything, likely to impact detrimentally on breakdown persistence.

  15. Relationships between milk culture results and treatment for clinical mastitis or culling in Norwegian dairy cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reksen, O; Sølverød, L; Branscum, A J; Osterås, O

    2006-08-01

    In quarter milk samples from 2,492 randomly sampled cows that were selected without regard to their current or previous udder health status, the relationships between the following outcome variables were studied: treatment of clinical mastitis; the joint event of either treatment or culling for mastitis; culling for all reasons; culling specifically for mastitis; and the covariates of positive milk culture for Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus spp., and coagulase-negative Staphylococcus spp., or other pathogens, or of negative culture for mastitis pathogens. Microbiological diagnoses were assigned at the cow level, and altogether 3,075 diagnoses were related to the outcome variables. The relation between the absence of pathogens and rich (>1,500 cfu/mL of milk) or sparse (mastitis was greater for cows diagnosed with Staph. aureus compared with cows with no pathogens in all analyses. Cows with sparse growth of Staph. aureus upon microbiological analysis were more likely to be treated for clinical mastitis, and cows with rich growth of the bacteria experienced a higher overall risk of culling when the models adjusted for cow composite milk somatic cell count. No difference between rich and sparse growth of Staph. aureus was found when mastitis was defined as the joint event of either culling for mastitis or treatment of clinical mastitis, and when the relationship with culling specifically for mastitis was assessed. The combined outcome of treatment and culling for mastitis was related to a positive diagnosis of Strep. spp. after cow composite milk somatic cell count was omitted from the model. Presence of Streptococcus spp. was also related to culling specifically for mastitis, whereas culling for all reasons and treatment of clinical mastitis was not related to a positive culture of Strep. spp. Presence of coagulase-negative Staph. spp. or other pathogens was not associated with either of the outcome variables.

  16. Enhanced oxidative stability of fish oil by encapsulating in culled banana resistant starch-soy protein isolate based microcapsules in functional bakery products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasrin, Taslima Ayesha Aktar; Anal, Anil Kumar

    2015-08-01

    Oil in water emulsions were produced by the mixture of culled banana resistant starch (CBRS) & soy protein isolate (SPI), mixture of Hylon VII & SPI and SPI with 7.5 and 5 % (w/w) Menhaden fish oil. The emulsions were further freeze- dried obtaining 33 and 50 % oil load microcapsules. The range of particles diameter was 4.11 to 7.25 μm and viscosity was 34.6 to 146.48 cP of the emulsions. Compressibility index (CI), Hasner ratio (HR) and angle of repose (AR) was significantly (p < 0.01) lower of the microcapsules made with starch and protein (CBRS & SPI and Hylon VII & SPI) than that made with protein (SPI) only. Microcapsules composed of CBRS & SPI with 33 % oil load had maximum microencapsulation efficiency (82.49 %) and highest oxidative stability. Muffin made with emulsions containing mixture of CBRS & SPI exhibited less fishy flavour than that containing mixture of Hylon VII & SPI.

  17. Poultry Culling and Campylobacteriosis Reduction among Humans, the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friesema, I.H.M.; Havelaar, A.H.; Westra, P.P.; Wagenaar, J.A.; Pelt, van W.

    2012-01-01

    In the Netherlands in 2003, an outbreak of avian influenza in poultry resulted in extensive culling, especially of layer hens. Concurrently, human campylobacteriosis cases decreased, particularly in the culling area. These observations raise the hypothesis that Campylobacter spp. dissemination from

  18. Depth-dependent effects of culling-do mesophotic lionfish populations undermine current management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andradi-Brown, Dominic A; Grey, Rachel; Hendrix, Alicia; Hitchner, Drew; Hunt, Christina L; Gress, Erika; Madej, Konrad; Parry, Rachel L; Régnier-McKellar, Catriona; Jones, Owen P; Arteaga, María; Izaguirre, Andrea P; Rogers, Alex D; Exton, Dan A

    2017-05-01

    Invasive lionfish ( Pterois volitans and P. miles ) have spread widely across the western Atlantic and are recognized as a major threat to native marine biodiversity. Although lionfish inhabit both shallow reefs and mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs; reefs from 30 to 150 m depth), the primary management response implemented by many countries has been diver-led culling limited to reefs less than 30 m. However, many reef fish undergo ontogenetic migrations, with the largest and therefore most fecund individuals found at greatest depths. Here, we study lionfish density, body size, maturity and dietary patterns across the depth gradient from the surface down to 85 m on heavily culled reefs around Utila, Honduras. We found lionfish at increased densities, body size and weight on MCEs compared with shallow reefs, with MCEs also containing the greatest proportion of actively spawning females, while shallow reefs contained the greatest proportion of immature lionfish. We then compared lionfish behaviour in response to divers on shallow culled and mesophotic unculled Utilan reefs, and on shallow unculled reefs in Tela Bay, on the Honduran mainland. We found that mesophotic lionfish exhibited high alert distances, consistent with individuals previously exposed to culling despite being below the depth limits of removal. In addition, when examining stomach content, we found that fish were the major component of lionfish diets across the depth gradient. Importantly, our results suggest that despite adjacent shallow culling, MCEs retain substantial lionfish populations that may be disproportionately contributing towards continued lionfish recruitment onto the shallow reefs of Utila, potentially undermining current culling-based management.

  19. 7 CFR 959.126 - Handling of culls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Handling of culls. 959.126 Section 959.126 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements...) Handled for canning or freezing. (b) As a safeguard against culls entering fresh market channels each...

  20. Management of the panzootic white-nose syndrome through culling of bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallam, Thomas G; McCracken, Gary F

    2011-02-01

    The probability of persistence of many species of hibernating bats in the United States is greatly reduced by an emerging infectious disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). In the United States WNS is rapidly spreading and is associated with a psychrophilic fungus, Geomyces destructans. WNS has caused massive mortality of bats that hibernate. Efforts to control the disease have been ineffective. The culling of bats in hibernacula has been proposed as a way to break the transmission cycle or slow the spread of WNS. We formulated a disease model to examine the efficacy of culling to abate WNS in bat populations. We based the model dynamics on disease transmission in maternity roosts, swarms, and hibernacula, which are the arenas of contact among bats. Our simulations indicated culling will not control WNS in bats primarily because contact rates are high among colonial bats, contact occurs in multiple arenas, and periodic movement between arenas occurs. In general, culling is ineffective in the control of animal diseases in the wild. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. Short Communication: Use of culling Information in Genetic Evaluation of fertility, and Mastitis in Norwegian Red Cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtsmark, M; Heringstad, B; Madsen, P

    2008-01-01

    Breeding values for clinical mastitis, interval from calving to first insemination, and 56-d nonreturn rate for heifers and primiparous cows, were predicted using multivariate linear-threshold sire models, with or without including information on culling during the first lactation. Breeding values...... to phenotypic performance of second-crop daughters. The predictive ability of estimated breeding values for clinical mastitis and interval from calving to first insemination did not improve when including information on early culling, irrespective of the size of first-crop daughter groups. For 56-d nonreturn...... rates (heifer and primiparous cow), sire evaluations based on reduced size of daughter groups tended to predict performance of the future daughters slightly better when including data on early culling. Hence, for breeding programs with direct selection for health and fertility traits there is little...

  2. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  3. A proposal on culling & filtering a coxeter group for 4D, N=1 spacetime SUSY representations: revised

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gates, D.E.A. [Jefferson Physical Laboratory, Harvard University,17 Oxford St., Cambridge, MA, 02138 (United States); Gates, James S. Jr. [Center for String and Particle Theory, Dept. of Physics, University of Maryland, 4150 Campus Dr., College Park, MD, 20472 (United States); Department of Physics and Astronomy, Dartmouth College,6127 College St., Hanover, NH, 03755 (United States); Stiffler, Kory [Department of Chemistry, Physics, and Astronomy, Indiana University Northwest, 3400 Broadway, Gary, Indiana, 46408 (United States)

    2016-08-10

    We present an expanded and detailed discussion of the mathematical tools required to cull and filter representations of the Coxeter Group BC{sub 4} into providing bases for the construction of minimal off-shell representations of the 4D, N = 1 spacetime supersymmetry algebra.

  4. Post-mortem findings in Irish culled hounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahns, H; Callanan, J J; McElroy, M C; Sammin, D J; Bassett, H F

    2011-07-01

    Little is known of the common diseases of hunting dogs or of the reasons why they are culled. To address these questions, necropsy examinations were conducted on 52 hounds aged 1.5-12 years (mean 6.5 ± 2.5 years) and culled from 10 Irish hunting kennels over a 3-year period. Progressive systemic disease was seen in six dogs only and encompassed individual cases of tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium bovis, bronchioalveolar carcinoma with metastasis to regional lymph nodes, renal amyloidosis, suppurative pneumonia, extramedullary plasmacytoma in the atrial wall of the heart and foreign body-induced hepatitis with focal peritonitis. Single or multiple localized tumours were identified in five dogs and, apart from the aforementioned, included two cutaneous haemangiomas, a trichoepithelioma, a lipoma and a mammary ductal adenoma. Three dogs were culled for lameness; one of these dogs had torn musculature, another had cellulitis and the third had a healed fracture of the tibia and fibula. Chronic renal changes were present in 48% of the dogs and included focal proliferative, exudative or crescentic glomerulonephritis (33%) or low-grade interstitial inflammatory changes (50%). The most frequently diagnosed skin lesions reported in this study were mild healed decubitus ulcers (33%), scars (33%) and stereotypic dermatitis (13%). These findings indicate that hounds are likely to be culled for reasons other than the presence of disease in most cases. In addition, this survey highlights different disease patterns in hounds than are typically observed in pet dogs. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Moral Convictions and Culling Animals: A Survey in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen, N.E.; Brom, F.W.A.; Stassen, E.N.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper the results are presented of a national survey in the Netherlands. The aim was to identify and describe the convictions about animals that people have in Dutch society and the role of these in judgments on the culling of healthy animals during an animal disease epidemic. A total of

  6. Factors determining the carcass value of culled dairy cows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arendonk, van J.A.M.; Stokvisch, P.E.; Korver, S.; Oldenbroek, J.K.

    1984-01-01

    Data from 763 cows culled during the period September 1973–May 1982 on two experimental farms have been analysed. The carcass value of each individual cow was adjusted for seasonal fluctuations in price per kilogram carcass weight. The grade was assessed through in vivo scoring by experts of a

  7. Causes for culling first calving cows on farms with different levels of production

    OpenAIRE

    Stojić P.; Beskorovajni R.; Pantelić V.; Novaković Ž.; Bojković-Kovačević S.; Stanojević D.

    2013-01-01

    It is general knowledge that management influences results in cattle production to the highest extent, and that the culling of cows is a very good indicator of the success of farm management. A comparison of results of culling for first calving cows on farms with various levels of production in 2011 established differences both for the number of culled animals and the reasons for culling. On farms with higher levels of production, the share of first calving...

  8. Culling decisions of dairy farmers during a 3-year Salmonella control study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Dohoo, I.

    2011-01-01

    Dublin which is the most prevalent and most persistent serotype in the Danish cattle population. A field study in 10 dairy herds with persistent Salmonella infections was carried out over three years to gain experience with control procedures including risk assessment, targeted control actions and test...... animals into risk groups. These risk groups and all individual ELISA-results were communicated to the farmers as colour-coded lists four to six times per year. Farmers were advised to manage the risk of Salmonella transmission from cattle with repeatedly high ELISA results (flagged as “red”) or cows...... if animals with red and yellow flags had higher probability of being slaughtered or sold before first calving than animals without any risk flags. For adult cows a semi-parametric proportional hazard survival model was used to test the effect of number of red and yellow flags on hazards of culling...

  9. Cull Vegetables As Substitute For Conventional Forages In Goats Diet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AlSultan, S.I

    2007-01-01

    Comparison of certain responses of kids and nannies to a cull-vegetable diet as a substitute to the conventional diet (Barseem and Rhodes) was investigated. Kids after eight weeks of the experiment showed a significant increase in weight on all the three types of diet with more pronounced growth in the conventional diet containing Barseem and concentrate. On the other hand nannies exposed to the three types of diet following eight weeks of feeding displayed no significant increase in body weight as compared with the initial weight within each group or among the different groups. Similarly milk quality remained the same with no observable influence induced by the type of diet except that there was a slight increase in fat content of the cull -vegetable diet which require further investigation. (author)

  10. A field study of culling and mortality in beef cows from western Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldner, Cheryl L; Kennedy, Richard I; Rosengren, Leigh; Clark, Edward G

    2009-05-01

    The objectives were to describe the pattern of losses through culling, sales of breeding stock, mortality, and disappearance, and to characterize the causes of mortality of cows and replacement heifers of breeding age from Western Canadian beef herds. Cows and replacement heifers from 203 herds were observed for a 1-year period starting June 1, 2001. Veterinarians examined dead animals on-farm using a standard postmortem protocol. The incidence of culling in cows and replacements heifers was 14.3 per 100 cow-years at risk, and the frequencies of sales for breeding stock, mortality, and cows reported missing per cow-years at risk were 4.0, 1.1, and 0.4, respectively. During the study, 355 animals died or were euthanized, 209 were examined postmortem, and the requested tissues were submitted for histopathologic examination from 184. A cause of death was determined for 70% (128/184) of the cows with complete gross postmortem and histopathologic examinations. Hardware disease (traumatic reticuloperitonitis), malignant neoplasia (cancer), calving-associated injury, rumen tympany (bloat), myopathy, and pneumonia accounted for 56% (72/128) of the animals where a cause of death was determined. Twenty-three other causes of death accounted for the remaining 44% (56/128). Factors relating to cow nutrition accounted for 25% of the deaths, emphasizing the importance of feeding management as a determinant of cow health in western Canada.

  11. Culling and the Common Good: Re-evaluating Harms and Benefits under the One Health Paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degeling, Chris; Lederman, Zohar; Rock, Melanie

    2016-11-01

    One Health (OH) is a novel paradigm that recognizes that human and non-human animal health is interlinked through our shared environment. Increasingly prominent in public health responses to zoonoses, OH differs from traditional approaches to animal-borne infectious risks, because it also aims to promote the health of animals and ecological systems. Despite the widespread adoption of OH, culling remains a key component of institutional responses to the risks of zoonoses. Using the threats posed by highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses to human and animal health, economic activity and food security as a case exemplar, we explore whether culling and other standard control measures for animal-borne infectious disease might be justified as part of OH approaches. Our central premise is that OH requires us to reformulate 'health' as universal good that is best shared across species boundaries such that human health and well-being are contingent upon identifying and meeting the relevant sets of human and non-human interests and shared dependencies. Our purpose is to further nascent discussions about the ethical dimensions of OH and begin to describe the principles around which a public health agenda that truly seeks to co-promote human and non-human health could potentially begin to be implemented.

  12. An adaptive occlusion culling algorithm for use in large ves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bormann, Karsten

    2000-01-01

    The Hierarchical Occlusion Map algorithm is combined with Frustum Slicing to give a simpler occlusion-culling algorithm that more adequately caters to large, open VEs. The algorithm adapts to the level of visual congestion and is well suited for use with large, complex models with long mean free ...... line of sight ('the great outdoors'), models for which it is not feasible to construct, or search, a database of occluders to be rendered each frame....

  13. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

  14. Efficient Geometric Sound Propagation Using Visibility Culling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandak, Anish

    2011-07-01

    Simulating propagation of sound can improve the sense of realism in interactive applications such as video games and can lead to better designs in engineering applications such as architectural acoustics. In this thesis, we present geometric sound propagation techniques which are faster than prior methods and map well to upcoming parallel multi-core CPUs. We model specular reflections by using the image-source method and model finite-edge diffraction by using the well-known Biot-Tolstoy-Medwin (BTM) model. We accelerate the computation of specular reflections by applying novel visibility algorithms, FastV and AD-Frustum, which compute visibility from a point. We accelerate finite-edge diffraction modeling by applying a novel visibility algorithm which computes visibility from a region. Our visibility algorithms are based on frustum tracing and exploit recent advances in fast ray-hierarchy intersections, data-parallel computations, and scalable, multi-core algorithms. The AD-Frustum algorithm adapts its computation to the scene complexity and allows small errors in computing specular reflection paths for higher computational efficiency. FastV and our visibility algorithm from a region are general, object-space, conservative visibility algorithms that together significantly reduce the number of image sources compared to other techniques while preserving the same accuracy. Our geometric propagation algorithms are an order of magnitude faster than prior approaches for modeling specular reflections and two to ten times faster for modeling finite-edge diffraction. Our algorithms are interactive, scale almost linearly on multi-core CPUs, and can handle large, complex, and dynamic scenes. We also compare the accuracy of our sound propagation algorithms with other methods. Once sound propagation is performed, it is desirable to listen to the propagated sound in interactive and engineering applications. We can generate smooth, artifact-free output audio signals by applying

  15. Farmer attitudes to vaccination and culling of badgers in controlling bovine tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, M; Lobley, M; Winter, M

    2013-07-13

    Controversy persists in England, Wales and Northern Ireland concerning methods of controlling the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) between badgers and cattle. The National Trust, a major land-owning heritage organisation, in 2011, began a programme of vaccinating badgers against bTB on its Killerton Estate in Devon. Most of the estate is farmed by 18 tenant farmers, who thus have a strong interest in the Trust's approach, particularly as all have felt the effects of the disease. This article reports on a study of the attitudes to vaccination of badgers and to the alternative of a culling programme, using face-to-face interviews with 14 of the tenants. The results indicated first that the views of the respondents were more nuanced than the contemporary public debate about badger control would suggest. Secondly, the attitude of the interviewees to vaccination of badgers against bTB was generally one of resigned acceptance. Thirdly, most respondents would prefer a combination of an effective vaccination programme with an effective culling programme, the latter reducing population of density sufficiently (and preferably targeting the badgers most likely to be diseased) for vaccination to have a reasonable chance of success. While based on a small sample, these results will contribute to the vigorous debate concerning contrasting policy approaches to bTB control in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

  16. Risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

  17. 7 CFR 987.56 - Outlets for utility and cull dates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ..., utility dates and cull dates may be disposed of without inspection, but only in feed, non-table syrup... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Outlets for utility and cull dates. 987.56 Section 987... DATES PRODUCED OR PACKED IN RIVERSIDE COUNTY, CALIFORNIA Order Regulating Handling Disposition of Other...

  18. The association of culling and death rate within 30 days after calving with productivity or reproductive performance in dairy herds in Fukuoka, Southern Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, Akira; Nakada, Ken; Katamoto, Hiromu

    2016-05-03

    The incidence of peripartum disorders in dairy herds negatively influences productivity and reproductive performance. Concrete data from local areas are helpful for explaining the importance of peripartum management to dairy farmers. This study was conducted to clarify the association of culling and death rate within 30 days after calving with productivity or reproductive performance in 179 dairy herds in Fukuoka, Southern Japan. A database was compiled from the records of the Livestock Improvement Association of Japan, the Dairy Cooperative Association and the Federation of Agricultural Mutual Relief Association. In this study, we created a comprehensive database of dairy farm production data for epidemiological analysis and used a general linear mixed model to analyze the association of culling and death rate within 30 days after calving with milk production or reproductive performance. The database can be used to describe, analyze and predict the risk of production. A cross-sectional analysis with contrasts was applied to investigate the association of cows served by AI/all cows, pregnant cows/cows served by AI, days open, milk yield and somatic cell counts with culling and death rate within 30 days after calving. The days open value significantly increased with increasing rate of culling and death within 30 days after calving (P for trend <0.001). No significant differences were found for the other comparisons. Our data suggest that proper feeding and management in the dry period may lead to improved postpartum reproductive performance in this dairy cow cohort.

  19. Genetic Relationship between Culling, Milk Production, Fertility, and Health Traits in Norwegian Red Cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtsmark, M; Heringstad, B; Madsen, P

    2008-01-01

    First-lactation records on 836,452 daughters of 3,064 Norwegian Red sires were used to examine associations between culling in first lactation and 305-d protein yield, susceptibility to clinical mastitis, lactation mean somatic cell score (SCS), nonreturn rate within 56 d in heifers and primiparous......, including functional traits such as health and fertility, most of the genetic variation in culling will probably be covered by other traits in the breeding goal. However, in populations where data on health and fertility is scarce or not available at all, selection against early culling may be useful...... cows, and interval from calving to first insemination. A Bayesian multivariate threshold-linear model was used for analysis. Posterior mean of heritability of liability to culling of primiparous cows was 0.04. The posterior means of the genetic correlations between culling and the other traits were -0...

  20. 9 CFR 147.17 - Laboratory procedure recommended for the bacteriological examination of cull chicks and poults...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... bacteriological examination of cull chicks from egg-type and meat-type chicken flocks and waterfowl, exhibition poultry, and game bird flocks and poults from turkey flocks for salmonella. (a) For cull chicks, from 25...

  1. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedlak, J.

    2001-12-01

    The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

  2. Low prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in cull sows and pork.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesley, Irene V; Larsen, Steven; Hurd, H Scott; McKean, James D; Griffith, Ronald; Rivera, Fernando; Nannapaneni, Ramakrishna; Cox, Mandy; Johnson, Michael; Wagner, Dean; de Martino, Mary

    2008-03-01

    The goal of this study was to determine the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in sows slaughtered at a single Midwestern plant on two occasions (trial 1, n = 179 sows; trial 2, n = 160 sows). Fecal samples collected antemortem (trial 1) as well as animal tissues, and carcass swabs collected at the abattoir (trials 1 and 2) were analyzed. Eight isolates of L. monocytogenes were recovered from five samples that represented 0.18% of the total samples (n = 2,775). In trial 1, L. monocytogenes was detected in a tonsil sample (0.6%; 1 positive of 181 tonsils), in a carcass (0.6%; 1 positive of 179 carcasses), which was sampled prior to the organic rinse, and in two chopped meat block samples (1.2%; 2 positive of 165 samples). In trial 2, L. monocytogenes was only detected in a single chopped meat block sample (0.15%; 1 positive of 688 total samples). These data indicate the low prevalence of L. monocytogenes in the cull sow.

  3. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  4. A field study of culling and mortality in beef cows from western Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Waldner, Cheryl L.; Kennedy, Richard I.; Rosengren, Leigh; Clark, Edward G.

    2009-01-01

    The objectives were to describe the pattern of losses through culling, sales of breeding stock, mortality, and disappearance, and to characterize the causes of mortality of cows and replacement heifers of breeding age from Western Canadian beef herds. Cows and replacement heifers from 203 herds were observed for a 1-year period starting June 1, 2001. Veterinarians examined dead animals on-farm using a standard postmortem protocol. The incidence of culling in cows and replacements heifers was ...

  5. Culling from the actors' perspectives-Decision-making criteria for culling in Québec dairy herds enrolled in a veterinary preventive medicine program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haine, Denis; Cue, Roger; Sewalem, Asheber; Wade, Kevin; Lacroix, René; Lefebvre, Daniel; Rushton, Jonathan; Arsenault, Julie; Bouchard, Émile; Dubuc, Jocelyn

    2017-12-01

    The series of events leading to the decision to cull a cow is complex, involving both individual-level and herd-level factors. While the decision is guided by financial returns, it is also influenced by social and psychological factors. Research studies on the motivational and behavioural aspects of farmers' decision utility are sparse, and nonexistent regarding culling expectations and its decision process. Our goal was to identify shared criteria on culling decisions held by dairy producers and farm advisers, with the help of the Q-methodology. Forty-one dairy producers and 42 advisers (17 veterinarians, 13 feed mill advisers, and 12 dairy herd improvement (DHI) advisers) undertook a Q-sort with 40 statements that represented a range of views about cow and herd health, production performance, management issues, and material factors that might impact their culling decision-making process. The sorts were analysed by-person using factor analysis and oblimin rotation. A single view on culling could be identified among dairy producers that can be extended to dairy farm advisers, who showed two variations of the same well-structured, uni-dimensional decision-making process. Udder health, milk production performance, and milk quota management were the key criteria for the culling decision. Farm management parameters (debts, amortization, employees, milking parlour capacity, herd size) did not play any role in the decision process. Three key differences were, however, identified between producers and the two types of advisers. One group of advisers followed the recommendations from mathematical models, where pregnancy is a major determinant of a cow's value. They assessed the cow in a more abstract way than did the other participants, still taking into account udder health and milk production, but adding economic considerations, like the availability of financial incentives and an evaluation of the post-partum health of the cow. Dairy producers were also more concerned

  6. 77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

  7. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

  8. The Effect of Zingiber Officinale Rosc in The Diets of Performance in Culled Layer Ducks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tjokorda Gede Belawa Yadnya

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The experiment was design using a completely randomized block design (CRBD with four treatments. Treatment were diets without Zingiber officinale rosc (A, diets contain 2,91% Zingiber officinale Rosc  (B, diets contain 5,66%. Zingiber officinale Rosc (C, and diets contain 8,26% Zingiber officinale Rosc (D. Each treatment with five replicates, and each replicate consist four culled layer ducks. Variable observed were feed conversation ratio, carcass physical composition, and meat quality. It was concluded that present  Zingiber officinale Rosc in the diets could be improved of performance in culled layer ducks.   Keywords : Zingiber officinale Rosc, Culled layer ducks, and  meat qualit

  9. Postpartum body condition score and results from the first test day milk as predictors of disease, fertility, yield, and culling in commercial dairy herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heuer, C; Schukken, Y H; Dobbelaar, P

    1999-02-01

    The study used field data from a regular herd health service to investigate the relationships between body condition scores or first test day milk data and disease incidence, milk yield, fertility, and culling. Path model analysis with adjustment for time at risk was applied to delineate the time sequence of events. Milk fever occurred more often in fat cows, and endometritis occurred between calving and 20 d of lactation more often in thin cows. Fat cows were less likely to conceive at first service than were cows in normal condition. Fat body condition postpartum, higher first test day milk yield, and a fat to protein ratio of > 1.5 increased body condition loss. Fat or thin condition or condition loss was not related to other lactation diseases, fertility parameters, milk yield, or culling. First test day milk yield was 1.3 kg higher after milk fever and was 7.1 kg lower after displaced abomasum. Higher first test day milk yield directly increased the risk of ovarian cyst and lameness, increased 100-d milk yield, and reduced the risk of culling and indirectly decreased reproductive performance. Cows with a fat to protein ratio of > 1.5 had higher risks for ketosis, displaced abomasum, ovarian cyst, lameness, and mastitis. Those cows produced more milk but showed poor reproductive performance. Given this type of herd health data, we concluded that the first test day milk yield and the fat to protein ratio were more reliable indicators of disease, fertility, and milk yield than was body condition score or loss of body condition score.

  10. Risk-based performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

    1987-01-01

    The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

  11. Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene

    of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...... in Northern Europe. This model approach may be used as a basis for risk based surveillance. In risk based surveillance limited resources for surveillance are targeted at geographical areas most at risk and only when the risk is high. This makes risk based surveillance a cost effective alternative...... sample to a diagnostic laboratory. Risk based surveillance models may reduce this delay. An important feature of risk based surveillance models is their ability to continuously communicate the level of risk to veterinarians and hence increase awareness when risk is high. This is essential for submission...

  12. What happens to living cull trees left after heavy cutting in mixed hardwood stands?

    Science.gov (United States)

    George R., Jr. Trimble; Henry Clay Smith

    1963-01-01

    In the Appalachian Mountains, the logging operator usually cuts only those trees that he thinks will yield a profit, and leaves the trees that appear to be unprofitable. Generally these unprofitable trees are either below merchantable size or are culls-trees of merchantable size that contain too little sound material to justify harvesting costs.

  13. Distribution of Penicillin G Residues in Culled Dairy Cow Muscles: Implications for Residue Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration sets tolerances for veterinary drug residues in muscle, but does not specify which type of muscle should be analyzed. In order to determine if antibiotic residue levels are dependent on muscle type, 7 culled dairy cows were dosed with Penicillin G (Pen G) from ...

  14. Premature culling of production animals; ethical questions related to killing animals in food production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijnis, M.R.N.; Meijboom, F.L.B.; Stassen, E.N.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this chapter is to analyse the importance of longevity in relation to the welfare of production animals. I hypothesize that the concept of longevity helps to support the moral intuition that premature culling of animals is a moral wrong. The analysis shows that the interpretation of the

  15. Culling prey promotes predator recovery - Alternative states in a whole-lake experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persson, L.; Amundsen, P.A.; de Roos, A.M.; Klemetsen, A.; Knudsen, R.; Primicerio, R.

    2007-01-01

    Many top-predator fish stocks in both freshwater and marine systems have collapsed as a result of overharvesting. Consequently, some of these communities have shifted into seemingly irreversible new states. We showed, for predators feeding on prey that exhibit food-dependent growth, that culling of

  16. A small quantity of sodium arsenite will kill large cull hardwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis M. Rushmore

    1956-01-01

    Although it is well known that sodium arsenite is an effective silvicide, forestry literature contains little information about the minimum quantities of this chemical that are required to kill large cull trees. Such information would be of value because if small quantities of a chemical will produce satisfactory results, small holes or frills in the tree will hold it...

  17. Economic comparison of common treatment protocols and J5 vaccination for clinical mastitis in dairy herds using optimized culling decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessels, J A; Cha, E; Johnson, S K; Welcome, F L; Kristensen, A R; Gröhn, Y T

    2016-05-01

    This study used an existing dynamic optimization model to compare costs of common treatment protocols and J5 vaccination for clinical mastitis in US dairy herds. Clinical mastitis is an infection of the mammary gland causing major economic losses in dairy herds due to reduced milk production, reduced conception, and increased risk of mortality and culling for infected cows. Treatment protocols were developed to reflect common practices in dairy herds. These included targeted therapy following pathogen identification, and therapy without pathogen identification using a broad-spectrum antimicrobial or treating with the cheapest treatment option. The cost-benefit of J5 vaccination was also estimated. Effects of treatment were accounted for as changes in treatment costs, milk loss due to mastitis, milk discarded due to treatment, and mortality. Following ineffective treatments, secondary decisions included extending the current treatment, alternative treatment, discontinuing treatment, and pathogen identification followed by recommended treatment. Average net returns for treatment protocols and vaccination were generated using an existing dynamic programming model. This model incorporates cow and pathogen characteristics to optimize management decisions to treat, inseminate, or cull cows. Of the treatment protocols where 100% of cows received recommended treatment, pathogen-specific identification followed by recommended therapy yielded the highest average net returns per cow per year. Out of all treatment scenarios, the highest net returns were achieved with selecting the cheapest treatment option and discontinuing treatment, or alternate treatment with a similar spectrum therapy; however, this may not account for the full consequences of giving nonrecommended therapies to cows with clinical mastitis. Vaccination increased average net returns in all scenarios. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Influence of body condition score on live and carcass value of cull beef cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apple, J K

    1999-10-01

    Mature beef cows (n = 88) were slaughtered to determine the influence of body condition score (BCS) on carcass and live animal value. Cows were weighed and assigned a BCS (9-point scale), 24 h before slaughter. Hide and by-products weights were recorded during harvest. After a 48-h chill period, the right side of each carcass was fabricated into boneless subprimal cuts, minor cuts, lean trim, fat, and bone. Weights were recorded at all stages of fabrication. Carcass values (U.S.$/100 kg of hot carcass weight) were calculated for U.S. Utility and U.S. Cutter grades, as well as for the Utility/Cutter mix for each BCS. Gross value included the carcass value and the value of the hide and byproducts, whereas net value was calculated after harvest and fabrication costs and by-product value were considered. Live value (U.S.$/100 kg of live weight) was computed by dividing the net value by the animal's live weight 24 h before harvest. The value of the hide and by-products for BCS-2 cows was greater (Pmix, cows designated with a BCS of 7 and 8 had greater (P.05) to BCS-7 cows. Information from this study can be used by the non-fed beef industry to establish a value-based marketing system. Data from this study would indicate that marketing cull beef cows at a BCS of 6 could optimize economic returns to both cow-calf producers and non-fed beef packers.

  19. Selection for reproductive traits in white egg stock using independent culling levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GS Schmidt

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to report the response to selection for fertility and hatchability in white egg layers strains, based on sire and dam performance, and the effects of inbreeding on these traits. Two selected white egg strains (CC and DD from Embrapa´s poultry program under multiple trait selection were compared to a control strain (CCc. The control strain was established by randomly mating one male from each sire family to a non-related female from each dam family and was used to monitor genetic change in the selected lines. CC and DD were selected using family and individual information on hen-day egg production up to 40 weeks of age, egg weight, sexual maturity and 16-week-old body weight over five generations. Independent culling levels (ICL were also used during population expansion to eliminate sires and dams with low fertility (FERT and hatchability (HATC. Initially, FERT and HATC were over 90.0% in both selected and control strains. FERT and HATC of the selected and the control strains were compared during the last generation. FERT averages were 93.8, 93.8 and 94.4%, and HATCH averages were 93.2, 91.6 and 93.1% for CC, DD and CCc respectively. FERT and HATCH means were not different among strains. Estimated inbreeding increased at a rate of 0.4% per generation in all strains. Selection using ICL was able to effectively maintain the high initial FERT and HATC levels, and provide potential for high selection intensity in other traits. Inbreeding depression was not observed for any trait, indicating that selection compensated for any negative effects of inbreeding.

  20. Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

  1. Comparative behaviour of yeast strains for ethanolic fermentation of culled apple juice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modi, D R; Garg, S K; Johri, B N

    1998-07-01

    The culled apple juice contained (% w/v): nitrogen, 0.036; total sugars, 11.6 and was of pH 3.9. Saccharomyces cerevisiae NCIM 3284, Pichia kluyeri and Candida krusei produced more ethanol from culled apple juice at its optimum initial pH 4.5, whereas S. cerevisiae NCIM 3316 did so at pH 5.0. An increase in sugar concentration of apple juice from natural 11.6% to 20% exhibited enhanced ethanol production and improved fermentation efficiency of both the S. cerevisiae strains, whereas P. kluyveri and C. krusei produced high ethanol at 11.6% and 16.0% sugar levels, respectively. Urea was stimulatory for ethanol production as well as fermentation efficiency of the yeast strains under study.

  2. Effects of hot boning and moisture enhancement on the eating quality of cull cow beef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pivotto, L M; Campbell, C P; Swanson, K; Mandell, I B

    2014-01-01

    The effects of chilling method and moisture enhancement were examined for improving eating quality of semimembranosus (SM) and longissimus lumborum (LL) from 62 cull beef cows. Chilling method included hot boning muscles after 45 to 60 min postmortem or conventional chilling for 24 h. Moisture enhancement included 1) a non-injected control (CONT) or injection processing (10% of product weight) using 2) Sodium Tripolyphosphate/salt (Na/STP), 3) Sodium Citrate (NaCIT), 4) Calcium Ascorbate (CaASC), or 5) Citrus Juices (CITRUS). Chilling method by moisture enhancement treatment interactions (Pboned vs. conventionally chilled product (SM and LL) for CaASC vs. other moisture enhancement treatments. Chilling method by moisture enhancement treatment interactions (Pboned LL using CaASC vs. Na/STP. Moisture enhancement can improve tenderness of cull cow beef depending on combinations of chilling method and moisture enhancement treatments used. © 2013.

  3. Risk based seismic design criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.

    1999-01-01

    In order to develop a risk based seismic design criteria the following four issues must be addressed: (1) What target annual probability of seismic induced unacceptable performance is acceptable? (2) What minimum seismic margin is acceptable? (3) Given the decisions made under Issues 1 and 2, at what annual frequency of exceedance should the safe-shutdown-earthquake (SSE) ground motion be defined? (4) What seismic design criteria should be established to reasonably achieve the seismic margin defined under Issue 2? The first issue is purely a policy decision and is not addressed in this paper. Each of the other three issues are addressed. Issues 2 and 3 are integrally tied together so that a very large number of possible combinations of responses to these two issues can be used to achieve the target goal defined under Issue 1. Section 2 lays out a combined approach to these two issues and presents three potentially attractive combined resolutions of these two issues which reasonably achieves the target goal. The remainder of the paper discusses an approach which can be used to develop seismic design criteria aimed at achieving the desired seismic margin defined in resolution of Issue 2. Suggestions for revising existing seismic design criteria to more consistently achieve the desired seismic margin are presented. (orig.)

  4. Zilpaterol improves feeding performance and fabrication yield of concentrate-finished cull cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, T E; Gasch, C A; Hutcheson, J P; Hodgen, J M

    2011-07-01

    The objective of this study was to quantify the effects of zilpaterol hydrochloride (ZH) on feeding performance and fabrication yield of concentrate-finished cull cows. Three hundred twenty commercial cull cows (2 to 10 yr old) were obtained from ranches in Missouri and South Dakota and assigned to 1 of 2 treatments: 1) a control diet containing no ZH and 2) a diet that contained ZH. Cows were fed for 75, 88, or 110 d, and all received the control ration until ZH treatments were initiated. Twenty-four days before slaughter, ZH feeding began for the designated treatment pens; cows were fed ZH [8.33 mg/kg (100% DM basis)] for 20 d with a 4-d withdrawal period before slaughter. No differences (P>0.05) were detected between the 2 treatment groups for initial BW or DMI. Final BW (640.5 vs. 619.1 kg), ADG for the last 24 d (2.75 vs. 2.17 kg), and G:F for the last 24 d (0.160 vs. 0.126) were greater (P 0.05) were found for lean or skeletal maturity score, fat thickness, LM area, HCW, or calculated yield grade among the 2 treatment groups. Feeding ZH increased (P0.07) were found for the remaining fabrication yield attributes. The ZH-treated cows had greater (Pfeeding of ZH to concentrate-finished cull cows enhances production efficiencies and can add new value to the cull cow market. © 2011 American Society of Animal Science. All rights reserved.

  5. Will Culling White-Tailed Deer Prevent Lyme Disease?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kugeler, K J; Jordan, R A; Schulze, T L; Griffith, K S; Mead, P S

    2016-08-01

    White-tailed deer play an important role in the ecology of Lyme disease. In the United States, where the incidence and geographic range of Lyme disease continue to increase, reduction of white-tailed deer populations has been proposed as a means of preventing human illness. The effectiveness of this politically sensitive prevention method is poorly understood. We summarize and evaluate available evidence regarding the effect of deer reduction on vector tick abundance and human disease incidence. Elimination of deer from islands and other isolated settings can have a substantial impact on the reproduction of blacklegged ticks, while reduction short of complete elimination has yielded mixed results. To date, most studies have been conducted in ecologic situations that are not representative to the vast majority of areas with high human Lyme disease risk. Robust evidence linking deer control to reduced human Lyme disease risk is lacking. Currently, there is insufficient evidence to recommend deer population reduction as a Lyme disease prevention measure, except in specific ecologic circumstances. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  6. Cull sow knife-separable lean content evaluation at harvest and lean mass content prediction equation development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abell, Caitlyn E; Stalder, Kenneth J; Hendricks, Haven B; Fitzgerald, Robert F

    2012-07-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a prediction equation for carcass knife-separable lean within and across USDA cull sow market weight classes (MWC) and to determine carcass and individual primal cut knife separable lean content from cull sows. There were significant percent lean and fat differences in the primal cuts across USDA MWC. The two lighter USDA MWC had a greater percent carcass lean and lower percent fat compared to the two heavier MWC. In general, hot carcass weight explained the majority of carcass lean variation. Additionally, backfat was a significant variation source when predicting cull sow carcass lean. The findings support using a single lean prediction equation across MWC to assist processors when making cull sow purchasing decisions and determine the mix of animals from various USDA MWC that will meet their needs when making pork products with defined lean:fat content. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Culling dogs in scenarios of imperfect control: realistic impact on the prevalence of canine visceral leishmaniasis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle N C C Costa

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis belongs to the list of neglected tropical diseases and is considered a public health problem worldwide. Spatial correlation between the occurrence of the disease in humans and high rates of canine infection suggests that in the presence of the vector, canine visceral leishmaniasis is the key factor for triggering transmission to humans. Despite the control strategies implemented, such as the sacrifice of infected dogs being put down, the incidence of American visceral leishmaniasis remains high in many Latin American countries. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Mathematical models were developed to describe the transmission dynamics of canine leishmaniasis and its control by culling. Using these models, imperfect control scenarios were implemented to verify the possible factors which alter the effectiveness of controlling this disease in practice. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A long-term continuous program targeting both asymptomatic and symptomatic dogs should be effective in controlling canine leishmaniasis in areas of low to moderate transmission (R0 up to 1.4. However, the indiscriminate sacrifice of asymptomatic dogs with positive diagnosis may jeopardize the effectiveness of the control program, if tests with low specificity are used, increasing the chance of generating outrage in the population, and leading to lower adherence to the program. Therefore, culling must be planned accurately and implemented responsibly and never as a mechanical measure in large scale. In areas with higher transmission, culling alone is not an effective control strategy.

  8. Occlusion culling and calculation for a computer generated hologram using spatial frequency index method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Kai; Yan, Xingpeng; Jiang, Xiaoyu; Huang, Yingqing

    2015-01-01

    A spatial frequency index method is proposed to cull occlusion and generate a hologram. Object points with the same spatial frequency are put into a set for their mutual occlusion. The hidden surfaces of the three-dimensional (3D) scene are quickly removed through culling the object points that are furthest from the hologram plane in the set. The phases of plane wave, which are only interrelated with the spatial frequencies, are precomputed and stored in a table. According to the spatial frequency of the object points, the phases of plane wave for generating fringes are obtained directly from the table. Three 3D scenes are chosen to verify the spatial frequency index method. Both numerical simulation and optical reconstruction are performed. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can cull the hidden surfaces of the 3D scene correctly. The occlusion effect of the 3D scene can be well reproduced. The computational speed is better than that obtained using conventional methods but is still time-consuming. (paper)

  9. A new application of pelvis area data as culling tool to aid in the management of dystocia in heifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, D E; Webb, E C; Thompson, P N

    2014-05-01

    Although fetomaternal disproportion is the major cause of dystocia in heifers, pelvis area (PA) is not recommended as a culling tool due to its relatively low importance and genetic correlation with calf birth weight (BWT), the most important factor associated with dystocia. The objective of this observational study of 484 limited bred yearling beef heifers was to compare the effects of different methods of adjustment of PA data for culling to select against dystocia. Multivariable analyses were used to determine predictors of PA, calf BWT, and dystocia. Hypothetical culling rates of 10 and 20% were then applied after ranking heifers by each of the following: unadjusted PA, PA adjusted to 365 d of age by subtracting 0.27 cm(2) per day of age difference between each heifer's age and 365 d (APA), PA:prebreeding BW ratio (PA:BW), PA adjusted to the median BW of the group using the regression coefficient of PA on BW within age group (BWPA), and PA similarly adjusted to the median lean BW (LBWPA). Dam parity, sire, prebreeding age, prebreeding BW, and prebreeding BCS were associated with PA whereas dam parity, sire, own BWT, PA, AI bull, and calf gender were associated with calf BWT (P dystocia (P dystocia. After hypothetical culling by PA, retained heifers were heavier and had a higher calving rate and calves tended to be heavier at birth compared to culled heifers, but dystocia rates were not different. Culling by APA resulted in similar effects, except that dystocia rate tended to be lower in retained heifers. Culling by PA:BW resulted in lower dystocia rate in retained than in culled heifers, but retained heifers had lower prebreeding BW than culls. Culling by BWPA and LBWPA resulted in lower proportions with dystocia and a tendency towards higher calving rates in the retained heifers, without affecting the prebreeding BW or calf BWT. It is concluded that pelvimetry is a useful culling tool to aid in the management of dystocia in yearling heifers and that adjustment

  10. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

  11. Evaluation of Two Compressed Air Foam Systems for Culling Caged Layer Hens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiher, Jaclyn A.; Alphin, Robert L.; Hougentogler, Daniel P.

    2018-01-01

    Simple Summary Control of avian influenza and similar diseases in commercial poultry operations is challenging; the six major steps are surveillance, biosecurity, quarantine, depopulation, disposal, and cleaning and disinfection. Depopulation is used to cull animals that are terminally ill and to reduce the number of animals that can spread an untreatable disease. Water-based foam depopulation was used effectively during the 2014–2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak in the United States. Water-based foam, however, cannot be used effectively in caged poultry operations. Compressed air foam systems were initially developed for structural fire-fighting and, with modifications, can provide the conditions required to effectively penetrate a poultry cage and provide sufficient residence time for depopulation. In this experiment, compressed air foam was used to depopulate caged layer hens. Compressed air foam resulted in faster unconsciousness than carbon dioxide gassing. The experiment demonstrated that compressed air foam systems have promise for depopulating birds raised in cages. Abstract Outbreaks of avian influenza (AI) and other highly contagious poultry diseases continue to be a concern for those involved in the poultry industry. In the situation of an outbreak, emergency depopulation of the birds involved is necessary. In this project, two compressed air foam systems (CAFS) were evaluated for mass emergency depopulation of layer hens in a manure belt equipped cage system. In both experiments, a randomized block design was used with multiple commercial layer hens treated with one of three randomly selected depopulation methods: CAFS, CAFS with CO2 gas, and CO2 gas. In Experiment 1, a Rowe manufactured CAFS was used, a selection of birds were instrumented, and the time to unconsciousness, brain death, altered terminal cardiac activity and motion cessation were recorded. CAFS with and without CO2 was faster to unconsciousness, however, the other

  12. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  13. Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for

  14. Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse

    2016-01-01

    This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

  15. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  16. Behavior of feral horses in response to culling and GnRH immunocontraception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, Jason I.; Powers, Jenny G.; Garbe, Heidi M.; Oehler, Michael W.; Nett, Terry M.; Baker, Dan L.

    2014-01-01

    Wildlife management actions can alter fundamental behaviors of individuals and groups,which may directly impact their life history parameters in unforeseen ways. This is especially true for highly social animals because changes in one individual’s behavior can cascade throughout its social network. When resources to support populations of social animals are limited and populations become locally overabundant, managers are faced with the daunting challenge of decreasing population size without disrupting core behavioral processes. Increasingly, managers are turning to fertility control technologies to supplement culling in efforts to suppress population growth, but little is quantitatively known about how either of these management tools affects behavior. Gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) is a small neuropeptide that performs an obligatory role in mammalian reproduction and has been formulated into the immunocontraceptive GonaCon-BTM. We investigated the influences of this vaccine on behavior of feral horses (Equus caballus) at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA, for a year preceding and a year following nonlethal culling and GnRH-vaccine treatment. We observed horses during the breeding season and found only minimal differences in time budget behaviors of free-ranging female feral horses treated with GnRH and those treated with saline. The differences observed were consistent with the metabolic demands of pregnancy and lactation. We observed similar social behaviors between treatment groups, reflecting limited reproductive behavior among control females due to high rates of pregnancy and suppressed reproductive behavior among treated females due to GnRH-inhibited ovarian activity. In the treatment year, band stallion age was the only supported factor influencing herding behavior (P < 0.001), harem-tending behavior (P < 0.001), and agonistic behavior (P = 0.02). There was no difference between the mean body condition of control females (4

  17. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  18. Development of new risk based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, L.

    1999-01-01

    A short presentation of the oil and gas industry in Norway, and a brief overview of the regulatory regime in the petroleum sector in Norway is given. Risk analysis has been performed in Norway since 1981 and the various applications will be described. These risk analyses are quite different from a nuclear PSA and some of these differences will be commented. Risk based optimisation techniques such as RCM (Reliability Centred Maintenance) and Risk Based Inspection is used in the industry, with very limited support from the risk analysis. Some of the limitation that exist when such techniques are imported from other industries will be commented on. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) is revising our regulations and some of the future plants when it comes to risk informed regulatory requirements will be presented. (au)

  19. Association between isolation of Staphylococcus aureus one week after calving and milk yield, somatic cell count, clinical mastitis, and culling through the remaining lactation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whist, Anne Cathrine; Osterås, Olav; Sølverød, Liv

    2009-02-01

    Cows with isolation of Staphylococcus aureus approximately 1 week after calving and milk yield, somatic cell count (SCC), clinical mastitis (CM), and culling risk through the remaining lactation were assessed in 178 Norwegian dairy herds. Mixed models with repeated measures were used to compare milk yield and SCC, and survival analyses were used to estimate the hazard ratio for CM and culling. On average, cows with an isolate of Staph. aureus had a significantly higher SCC than culture-negative cows. If no post-milking teat disinfection (PMTD) was used, the mean values of SCC were 42,000, 61,000, 68,000 and 77,000 cells/ml for cows with no Staph. aureus isolate, with Staph. aureus isolated in 1 quarter, in 2 quarters and more than 2 quarters respectively. If iodine PMTD was used, SCC means were 36,000; 63,000; 70,000 and 122,000, respectively. Primiparous cows testing positive for Staph. aureus had the same milk yield curve as culture-negative cows, except for those with Staph. aureus isolated in more than 2 quarters. They produced 229 kg less during a 305-d lactation. Multiparous cows with isolation of Staph. aureus in at least 1 quarter produced 94-161 kg less milk in 2nd and >3rd parity, respectively, and those with isolation in more than 2 quarters produced 303-390 kg less than multiparous culture-negative animals during a 305-d lactation. Compared with culture-negative cows, the hazard ratio for CM and culling in cows with isolation of Staph. aureus in at least 1 quarter was 2.0 (1.6-2.4) and 1.7 (1.5-1.9), respectively. There was a decrease in the SCC and in the CM risk in culture-negative cows where iodine PMTD had been used, indicating that iodine PMTD has a preventive effect on already healthy cows. For cows testing positive for Staph. aureus in more than 2 quarters at calving, iodine PMTD had a negative effect on the CM risk and on the SCC through the remaining lactation.

  20. Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

  1. Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

  2. Risk Based Optimal Fatigue Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, M.H.; Kroon, I.B.

    1992-01-01

    Optimal fatigue life testing of materials is considered. Based on minimization of the total expected costs of a mechanical component a strategy is suggested to determine the optimal stress range levels for which additional experiments are to be performed together with an optimal value...

  3. A model-based risk management framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

    2002-08-15

    The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

  4. WTS - Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) application supports a new SMS-structured process designed to focus on safety oversight of systems and processes rather than...

  5. Re-alimentation strategy to manoeuvre body condition and carcass characteristics in cull ewes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, R S; Soren, N M; Sahoo, A; Karim, S A

    2012-01-01

    Improvement in body condition and carcass traits through nutritional intervention was studied in cull ewes. Sixty-eight adult non-productive Malpura ewes (average body weight 26.7 ± 0.33 kg) were randomly divided into four equal groups: G0 maintained on free grazing for 8 h on protected natural rangeland with ad libitum guar (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba) straw (GS) after grazing; G1, G2 and G3 fed with supplemental concentrate at the rate of 250 g, 2.5% of live weight (LW) and ad libitum, respectively. The experiment was continued for 90 days and daily feed intake, weekly LW and body condition score (BCS) were recorded. Intake and digestibility of nutrients were assessed by indicator method. Rumen fermentation attributes and blood biochemical profile were studied to assess the dietary effects and animals were slaughtered at the end of experiment for evaluation of carcass characteristics. Higher dry matter (DM) intake and improvement in plane of nutrition was observed in G2 and G3 with a higher LW gain (LWG) and improvement in BCS than in G0. The digestibility of DM, organic matter, CP, ADF and cellulose was higher (P alimentation of cull ewes with challenged feeding of concentrate at 2.5% of LW on a basal roughage diet for a period of 3 months may have promise for better economic return to the farmers with possibly meeting quality mutton for human consumption.

  6. [Mass culling in the context of animal disease outbreaks--veterinarians caught between ethical issues and control policies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartnack, Sonja; Doherr, Marcus G; Grimm, Herwig; Kunzmann, Peter

    2009-04-01

    In recent years controversial discussions arose during major animal disease outbreaks in the EU about the ethical soundness of mass culling. In contrast to numerous publications about ethical issues and laboratory animals/animal experiments, literature concerning ethical deliberations in the case of mass culling as a means of outbreak control remain scarce. Veterinarians in charge of decision about and implementation of mass culling actions find themselves in an area of conflict in between the officially required animal disease control policy and a public that is increasingly critical. Those veterinarians are faced with the challenge to defend the relevant decisions against all stakeholders and also themselves. In this context an interdisciplinary workshop was initiated in Switzerland in October 2007 with ethicians and (official) veterinarians from Germany, Switzerland and Austria. With the aim to identify ethical components of animal disease control for official veterinarians, talks and moderated group discussions took place. This article summarizes selected discussion points and conclusions.

  7. What doesn't kill you makes you wary? Effect of repeated culling on the behaviour of an invasive predator.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle M Côté

    Full Text Available As a result of being hunted, animals often alter their behaviour in ways that make future encounters with predators less likely. When hunting is carried out for conservation, for example to control invasive species, these behavioural changes can inadvertently impede the success of future efforts. We examined the effects of repeated culling by spearing on the behaviour of invasive predatory lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles on Bahamian coral reef patches. We compared the extent of concealment and activity levels of lionfish at dawn and midday on 16 coral reef patches off Eleuthera, The Bahamas. Eight of the patches had been subjected to regular daytime removals of lionfish by spearing for two years. We also estimated the distance at which lionfish became alert to slowly approaching divers on culled and unculled reef patches. Lionfish on culled reefs were less active and hid deeper within the reef during the day than lionfish on patches where no culling had occurred. There were no differences at dawn when removals do not take place. Lionfish on culled reefs also adopted an alert posture at a greater distance from divers than lionfish on unculled reefs. More crepuscular activity likely leads to greater encounter rates by lionfish with more native fish species because the abundance of reef fish outside of shelters typically peaks at dawn and dusk. Hiding deeper within the reef could also make remaining lionfish less likely to be encountered and more difficult to catch by spearfishers during culling efforts. Shifts in the behaviour of hunted invasive animals might be common and they have implications both for the impact of invasive species and for the design and success of invasive control programs.

  8. What doesn't kill you makes you wary? Effect of repeated culling on the behaviour of an invasive predator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Isabelle M; Darling, Emily S; Malpica-Cruz, Luis; Smith, Nicola S; Green, Stephanie J; Curtis-Quick, Jocelyn; Layman, Craig

    2014-01-01

    As a result of being hunted, animals often alter their behaviour in ways that make future encounters with predators less likely. When hunting is carried out for conservation, for example to control invasive species, these behavioural changes can inadvertently impede the success of future efforts. We examined the effects of repeated culling by spearing on the behaviour of invasive predatory lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) on Bahamian coral reef patches. We compared the extent of concealment and activity levels of lionfish at dawn and midday on 16 coral reef patches off Eleuthera, The Bahamas. Eight of the patches had been subjected to regular daytime removals of lionfish by spearing for two years. We also estimated the distance at which lionfish became alert to slowly approaching divers on culled and unculled reef patches. Lionfish on culled reefs were less active and hid deeper within the reef during the day than lionfish on patches where no culling had occurred. There were no differences at dawn when removals do not take place. Lionfish on culled reefs also adopted an alert posture at a greater distance from divers than lionfish on unculled reefs. More crepuscular activity likely leads to greater encounter rates by lionfish with more native fish species because the abundance of reef fish outside of shelters typically peaks at dawn and dusk. Hiding deeper within the reef could also make remaining lionfish less likely to be encountered and more difficult to catch by spearfishers during culling efforts. Shifts in the behaviour of hunted invasive animals might be common and they have implications both for the impact of invasive species and for the design and success of invasive control programs.

  9. Epidemiology of Salmonella sp. in California cull dairy cattle: prevalence of fecal shedding and diagnostic accuracy of pooled enriched broth culture of fecal samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omran A. Abu Aboud

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background The primary objective of this cross-sectional study was to estimate the crude, seasonal and cull-reason stratified prevalence of Salmonella fecal shedding in cull dairy cattle on seven California dairies. A secondary objective was to estimate and compare the relative sensitivity (Se and specificity (Sp for pools of 5 and 10 enriched broth cultures of fecal samples for Salmonella sp. detection. Methods Seven dairy farms located in the San Joaquin Valley of California were identified and enrolled in the study as a convenience sample. Cull cows were identified for fecal sampling once during each season between 2014 and 2015, specifically during spring, summer, fall, and winter, and 10 cows were randomly selected for fecal sampling at the day of their sale. In addition, study personnel completed a survey based on responses of the herd manager to questions related to the previous four month’s herd management. Fecal samples were frozen until testing for Salmonella. After overnight enrichment in liquid broth, pools of enrichment broth (EBP were created for 5 and 10 samples. All individual and pooled broths were cultured on selective media with putative Salmonella colonies confirmed by biochemical testing before being serogrouped and serotyped. Results A total of 249 cull cows were enrolled into the study and their fecal samples tested for Salmonella. The survey-weighted period prevalence of fecal shedding of all Salmonella sp. in the cull cow samples across all study herds and the entire study period was 3.42% (N = 249; SE 1.07. The within herd prevalence of Salmonella shed in feces did not differ over the four study seasons (P = 0.074. The Se of culture of EBP of five samples was 62.5% (SE = 17.12, which was not statistically different from the Se of culture of EBP of 10 (37.5%, SE = 17.12, P = 0.48. The Sp of culture of EBP of five samples was 95.24% (SE = 3.29 and for pools of 10 samples was 100.00% (SE = 0. There was no statistical

  10. Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

  11. Risk-based and deterministic regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

    1995-07-01

    Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

  12. Risk-based remediation: Approach and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frishmuth, R.A.; Benson, L.A.

    1995-01-01

    The principle objective of remedial actions is to protect human health and the environment. Risk assessments are the only defensible tools available to demonstrate to the regulatory community and public that this objective can be achieved. Understanding the actual risks posed by site-related contamination is crucial to designing cost-effective remedial strategies. All to often remedial actions are overdesigned, resulting in little to no increase in risk reduction while increasing project cost. Risk-based remedial actions have recently been embraced by federal and state regulators, industry, government, the scientific community, and the public as a mechanism to implement rapid and cost-effective remedial actions. Emphasizing risk reduction, rather than adherence to ambiguous and generic standards, ensures that only remedial actions required to protect human health and the environment at a particular site are implemented. Two sites are presented as case studies on how risk-based approaches are being used to remediate two petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. The sites are located at two US Air Force Bases, Wurtsmith Air Force Base (AFB) in Oscoda, Michigan and Malmstrom AFB in Great Falls, Montana

  13. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  14. Effect of anthelmintics on reproductive performance and first-lactation culling rate in Holstein heifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejía, M E; Perri, A F; Miglierina, M M; Formía, N; Becú-Villalobos, D; Lacau-Mengido, I M

    2009-12-26

    Female Holstein calves were treated with ivermectin from birth to first oestrus to study the effect of parasitic burden and anthelmintic treatment on reproductive and productive performance. First oestrus, age at first service and age at calving were advanced by 30, 70 and 110 days, respectively (P<0.05), in ivermectin-treated animals compared with controls. No significant differences were observed in the conception rate, the number of services and the characteristics of the newborn calves and any problems at calving between the two groups. Daily milk yield, fat content in milk during first lactation, and the concentrations of growth hormone, insulin-like growth factor type 1, insulin and prolactin in serum were similar in both groups of cows. Culling during the first lactation was more common in untreated (47 per cent) than in treated (11 per cent) cows (P<0.05).

  15. Computer-generated holograms by multiple wavefront recording plane method with occlusion culling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symeonidou, Athanasia; Blinder, David; Munteanu, Adrian; Schelkens, Peter

    2015-08-24

    We propose a novel fast method for full parallax computer-generated holograms with occlusion processing, suitable for volumetric data such as point clouds. A novel light wave propagation strategy relying on the sequential use of the wavefront recording plane method is proposed, which employs look-up tables in order to reduce the computational complexity in the calculation of the fields. Also, a novel technique for occlusion culling with little additional computation cost is introduced. Additionally, the method adheres a Gaussian distribution to the individual points in order to improve visual quality. Performance tests show that for a full-parallax high-definition CGH a speedup factor of more than 2,500 compared to the ray-tracing method can be achieved without hardware acceleration.

  16. The interrelationships between clinical signs and their effect on involuntary culling among pregnant sows in group-housing systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Tina Birk; Bonde, Marianne Kjær; Kongsted, Anne Grete

    2010-01-01

    Sows suffering from clinical signs of disease (e.g. lameness, wounds and shoulder ulcers) are often involuntarily culled, affecting the farmer's economy and the welfare of the animals. In order to investigate the interrelationships between clinical signs of individual pregnant group-housed sows, we...

  17. 78 FR 70191 - Irish Potatoes Grown in Colorado; Modification of the General Cull and Handling Regulation for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-25

    ...-FV-13-0001; FV13-948-1 FIR] Irish Potatoes Grown in Colorado; Modification of the General Cull and..., without change, an interim rule that modified the size requirements for potatoes handled under the Colorado potato marketing order, Area No. 2 (order). The order regulates the handling of Irish potatoes...

  18. 78 FR 35743 - Irish Potatoes Grown in Colorado; Modification of the General Cull and Handling Regulation for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-14

    ... IR] Irish Potatoes Grown in Colorado; Modification of the General Cull and Handling Regulation for.... SUMMARY: This interim rule modifies the size requirements for potatoes handled under the Colorado potato marketing order, Area No. 2 (order). The order regulates the handling of Irish potatoes grown in Colorado...

  19. Invited review: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis of mortality and culling in dairy cattle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Compton, C. W. R.; Heuer, C.; Thomsen, Peter T.

    2017-01-01

    Dairy industries and individual farmers are concerned about mortality and culling of dairy animals. This is because the timing and fates of animals that exit dairy farms have important animal welfare and economic consequences that reflect the conditions under which they are farmed and the efficie...

  20. Associations between strain, herd size, age at first calving, culling reason and lifetime performance characteristics in Holstein-Friesian cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamczyk, K; Makulska, J; Jagusiak, W; Węglarz, A

    2017-02-01

    Cow longevity and lifetime performance traits are good indicators of breeding effectiveness and animal welfare. They are also interrelated with the economics of dairy herd. Unfortunately, a high milk yield is often associated with deteriorated cow health and fertility and, consequently, with an increased culling rate. This situation, observed also in the Polish population of Holstein-Friesian cattle, inspired us to undertake a study on the associations between some factors and lifetime performance characteristics. The data set consisted of the records on 135 496 cows, including 131 526 of the Black and White strain (BW), and 3970 of the Red and White strain (RW) covered by performance recording and culled in 2012. It was found that cows of the BW strain and those from the largest herds (>100 cows) reached higher lifetime and mean daily energy-corrected milk (ECM) yields than cows of the RW strain and those from smaller herds culled at a similar age. Cows youngest at first calving (reasons for cow culling. Cow longevity and lifetime productivity were considerably affected by the interactions between the studied factors.

  1. Effect of culling and vaccination on bovine tuberculosis infection in a European badger (Meles meles) population by spatial simulation modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abdou, Marwa; Frankena, Klaas; O'Keeffe, James; Byrne, Andrew W.

    2016-01-01

    The control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle herds in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) is partially hindered by spill-back infection from wild badgers (Meles meles). The aim of this study was to determine the relative effects of interventions (combinations of culling and/or vaccination) on bTB

  2. A risk-based sensor placement methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

  3. Risk-based regulation: A regulatory perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarborough, J.C.

    1993-01-01

    In the early development of regulations for nuclear power plants, risk was implicitly considered through qualitative assessments and engineering reliability principles and practices. Examples included worst case analysis, defense in depth, and the single failure criterion. However, the contributions of various systems, structures, components and operator actions to plant safety were not explicitly assessed since a methodology for this purpose had not been developed. As a consequence of the TMI accident, the use of more quantitative risk methodology and information in regulation such as probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) increased. The use of both qualitative and quantitative consideration of risk in regulation has been a set of regulations and regulatory guides and practices that ensure adequate protection of public health and safety. Presently, the development of PRA techniques has developed to the point that safety goals, expressed in terms of risk, have been established to help guide further regulatory decision making. This paper presents the personal opinions of the author as regards the use of risk today in nuclear power plant regulation, areas of further information needs, and necessary plans for moving toward a more systematic use of risk-based information in regulatory initiatives in the future

  4. 12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

  5. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    2009-01-01

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  6. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tervonen, Tommi, E-mail: t.p.tervonen@rug.n [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor, E-mail: igor.linkov@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Figueira, Jose Rui, E-mail: figueira@ist.utl.p [Technical University of Lisbon, CEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies, Instituto Superior Tecnico (Portugal); Steevens, Jeffery, E-mail: jeffery.a.steevens@usace.army.mil; Chappell, Mark, E-mail: mark.a.chappell@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Merad, Myriam, E-mail: myriam.merad@ineris.f [INERIS BP 2, Societal Management of Risks Unit/Accidental Risks Division (France)

    2009-05-15

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  7. Effects of pain mitigation and method of castration on behavior and feedlot performance in cull beef bulls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Repenning, P E; Ahola, J K; Callan, R J; Fox, J T; French, J T; Giles, R L; Peel, R K; Whittier, J C; Engle, T E

    2013-10-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of castration method (banding vs. surgical) and use of analgesia on behavior and feedlot performance in cull bulls. Angus, Hereford, and Angus-crossbred bulls (n = 20; initial BW = 384 ± 59.3 kg; 336 ± 20.1 d old) were housed in feedlot pens equipped with the ability to measure individual daily feed intake. A balanced randomized block design using a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement of treatments was used. A multimodal analgesia (MMA) protocol was used and consisted of sutcutaneous ketamine stun containing butorphanol (0.01 mg/kg BW), xylazine (0.02 mg/kg BW), ketamine (0.04 mg/kg BW), and a local 2% lidocaine hydrochloride anesthetic block of the spermatic cords (10 mL/cord) and scrotum (10 mL) on d 0. Flunixin meglumine (1.2 mg/kg) was administered intravenously on d 0, 1, 2, and 3 to MMA cattle. Cattle were stratified to treatments based on breed, BW, age, and a temperament score. Treatments included 1) band castration without analgesia (BND), 2) band castration with analgesia (BND-MMA), 3) surgical castration without analgesia (SURG), and 4) surgical castration with analgesia (SURG-MMA). All castrations were performed on d 0. Chute exit velocity (EV) and time in chute (TIC) were collected on d -9, 0, 1, 2, and 13. Willingness-to-enter-chute (WTE) score, rectal temperature (TEMP), heart rate (HR), and respiration (RESP) were collected on d 0, 1, 2, 3, and 13. Cattle were weighed on d -9 and 13 while feeding behaviors were collected continuously for 57 d precastration and 28 d postcastration. There was a tendency (P cattle receiving analgesia. Both SURG treatments exhibited elevated TEMP on d 1 (P castrates during the first week postcastration. Results suggest that pain mitigation reduces the impact of castration on ADG and DMI.

  8. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

  10. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

  11. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  12. Prediction of beef carcass and meat traits from rearing factors in young bulls and cull cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soulat, J; Picard, B; Léger, S; Monteils, V

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this study was to predict the beef carcass and LM (thoracis part) characteristics and the sensory properties of the LM from rearing factors applied during the fattening period. Individual data from 995 animals (688 young bulls and 307 cull cows) in 15 experiments were used to establish prediction models. The data concerned rearing factors (13 variables), carcass characteristics (5 variables), LM characteristics (2 variables), and LM sensory properties (3 variables). In this study, 8 prediction models were established: dressing percentage and the proportions of fat tissue and muscle in the carcass to characterize the beef carcass; cross-sectional area of fibers (mean fiber area) and isocitrate dehydrogenase activity to characterize the LM; and, finally, overall tenderness, juiciness, and flavor intensity scores to characterize the LM sensory properties. A random effect was considered in each model: the breed for the prediction models for the carcass and LM characteristics and the trained taste panel for the prediction of the meat sensory properties. To evaluate the quality of prediction models, 3 criteria were measured: robustness, accuracy, and precision. The model was robust when the root mean square errors of prediction of calibration and validation sub-data sets were near to one another. Except for the mean fiber area model, the obtained predicted models were robust. The prediction models were considered to have a high accuracy when the mean prediction error (MPE) was ≤0.10 and to have a high precision when the was the closest to 1. The prediction of the characteristics of the carcass from the rearing factors had a high precision ( > 0.70) and a high prediction accuracy (MPE 0.10). Only the flavor intensity of the beef score could be satisfactorily predicted from the rearing factors with high precision ( = 0.72) and accuracy (MPE = 0.10). All the prediction models displayed different effects of the rearing factors according to animal categories

  13. Using risk based tools in emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm

  14. Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei, Fangliang

    2012-05-01

    Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

  15. Effect of feeding period for dry cull cows on carcass quality, meat quality, and consumer reactions to loin steaks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Niels T.; Vestergaard, Mogens; Bredahl, Lone

    2003-01-01

    A major part of the beef marketed for Danish retail consumers originates from dairy cows slaughtered when the are culled from milk production. As these cows are often slaughtered at varios stages of lactation and with variable degrees of fatness the meat is often criticised for having a considera......A major part of the beef marketed for Danish retail consumers originates from dairy cows slaughtered when the are culled from milk production. As these cows are often slaughtered at varios stages of lactation and with variable degrees of fatness the meat is often criticised for having...... thoroughly. The present study comprise two trials. The results of both the first and second trail, including 62 cows in 2002, are reported here....

  16. Level and period of realimentation to assess improvement in body condition and carcass quality in cull ewes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, Randhir Singh; Soren, Nira Manik; Sahoo, Artabandhu; Karim, Shaikh Abdul

    2013-01-01

    Improvement in body condition was assessed in 40 cull ewes (>6 years), equally distributed in two groups and realimented with ad libitum roughage (gram straw) and two levels of concentrate feeding, i.e., 2.5 % (T(1)) of live weight (LW) and ad libitum (T(2)). Five representative animals from an initial 45 were slaughtered at the initiation of the study (0 day) and five animals from each treatment at 44, 67, and 90 days of experiment for carcass attributes. Improvement in body condition score (BCS), nutrient utilization, feed efficiency, and carcass traits were assessed at 44, 67, and 90 days. Metabolism trial of 6-day collection of feed, feces, and urine samples was conducted on five representative ewes from each group after 60 days of feeding. The level of concentrate feeding on LW gain and BCS was significant, and the duration of realimentation showed a linear improvement (P body condition of cull ewes for quality mutton production.

  17. Risk-based emergency decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koerte, Jens

    2003-01-01

    In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

  18. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  19. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

  20. Model-based mitigation of availability risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, E.; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, S.; Salvato, M.

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for risk assessment and mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  1. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  2. Effect of cull potatoes in the diet for finishing Belgian Blue double-muscled cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiems, L O; De Boever, J L; Vanacker, J M; De Brabander, D L

    2013-01-01

    The use of culled potatoes was investigated in Belgian Blue double-muscled finishing cows, confined in tie stalls. The control diet (Treatment 1) consisted of concentrate and maize silage (50/50 on a dry matter (DM) basis). Potatoes either replaced 60% maize silage (Treatment 2) or 60% concentrate (Treatment 3). Diets were formulated to be isocaloric and isonitrogenous. They were fed ad libitum. Approximately 18 kg potatoes were fed daily in Treatments 2 and 3. Daily gain was not significantly altered; it decreased from 1.09 kg (Treatment 1) to 1.04 kg (Treatment 2) or increased to 1.20 kg (Treatment 3), although potatoes stimulated DM intake by 5% to 8% (P < 0.05). Feed conversion was unaffected in comparison with the control diet, when expressed in terms of DM, but energy efficiency (MJ/kg live weight gain) was substantially lower for Treatment 2 compared with Treatment 1 (89.9 v. 79.0; P = 0.046). Carcass weight, grading and composition were not affected by treatments, but potatoes increased dressing percentage (P = 0.009). Treatment had no significant effect on meat quality parameters. However, potatoes (Treatments 2 and 3) tended to decrease moisture content (P = 0.090) and tended to increase drip loss (P = 0.059) compared with Treatment 1. Because of a better animal performance and a lower feed cost, it is most appropriate to use potatoes as a replacement for concentrate. Feeding large amounts of potatoes besides concentrate may have an adverse effect on the fibrousness of the diet, resulting in a tendency (-5%) for a reduced daily gain and a lower energy efficiency (P < 0.05).

  3. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  4. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  5. Project transition to risk based corrective action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judge, J.M.; Cormier, S.L.

    1996-01-01

    Many states have adopted or are considering the adoption of the America Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Standard E 1739, Standard for Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) Applied to Petroleum Release Sites. This standard is being adopted to regulate leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. The case studies of two LUST sites in Michigan will be presented to demonstrate the decision making process and limiting factors involved in transitioning sites to the RBCA program. Both of these case studies had been previously investigated and one was actively remediated. The first case study involves a private petroleum facility where soil and ground water have been impacted. Remediation involved a ground water pump and treat system. Subsequent monitoring during system operation indicated that analytical data were still above the Tier 1 RBSLs but below the Tier 2 SSTLs. The closure strategy that was developed was based on the compounds of concern that were below the SSTLs. A deed restriction was also developed for the site as an institutional control. The second LUST site exhibited BTEX concentrations in soil and ground water above the Tier 1 RBSLs. Due to the exceedence of the Tier 1 RBSLs, the second site required a Tier 2 assessment to develop SSTLs as remedial objectives and remove hot spots in the soil and treat the ground water to achieve closure. Again, a deed restriction was instituted along with a performance monitoring plan

  6. Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

    1995-01-01

    Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

  7. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

    2015-01-01

    A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  8. Fatty acid profile in meat of culling ewes in different feedlot periods fed diets containing levels of inclusion of linseed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Claudia Radis

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Linseed plays an important role in animal nutrition as it contains long-chain fatty acids in its composition, which, once absorbed, are incorporated into meat and milk. For evaluate the concentration of fatty acids in the Longissimus dorsi muscle of culling ewes fed diets containing levels of inclusion of linseed, 88 culling ewes were used with an average initial body weight of 37.65 ± 6.98 kg were distributed in a completely randomized design with 12 treatments. Treatments consisted of the interaction between levels of linseed (0, 5, 10, and 15% and days in feedlot (30, 45, and 60. The most present fatty acids in the composition of the muscle L. dorsi were palmitic (27.32 g 100 g-1 and stearic (17.77 g 100 g-1. Saturated acids remained at low levels as the animals were fed greater levels of linseed, demonstrating the importance of introducing quality foods in animal feeding. Oleic acid was the most present monounsaturated fatty acid, with 40 g 100 g-1. Palmitoleic and elaidic fatty acids increased linearly as the linseed inclusion in the diet was increased. Polyunsaturated acids increased with the presence of linseed in the diet. For the linolenic acid (C18: 3n3, the best result was with inclusion of 10% of linseed in the total diet. All groups of animals that received linseed obtained better n6:n3 ratios, which varied from 1.81 to 4.14. The higher CLA values obtained in this study are related to the higher amounts of inclusion of linseed in the sheep diet, varying from 1.15 to 5.72 g 100 g-1. It is recommended culling ewes supplemented with inclusion of 10% linseed, for 60 days in feedlot, because they comprise a larger number of favorable traits regarding to the profile fatty acids of Longissimus dorsi.

  9. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) The bank must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is independent... management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk.... Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes, a bank subject to this appendix...

  10. Pengaruh Pemberian Margarin terhadap Sifat Fisiko Kimiawi dan Sensoris Sosis Ayam Petelur Afkir (The Effect of Margarine Application on Physicochemical and Sensory Properties of Culled Hens Layer Sausages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendronoto Arnoldus Walewengko Lengkey

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Research was aimed to determine the effect of margarine application on the physicochemical and sensory properties of culled layer hens sausages. In addition to utilizing the culled layer hens meat as a source of animal protein, as well as to diversify food, so that the resulting product can be accepted by consumers. This study was conducted in a completely randomized experimental design with four treatments unidirectional pattern with margarine giving addition 0.0 %; 2.5 %; 5.0 % and 7.5 % with four replications. The data obtained were statistically tested by analysis of variance (ANOVA, if there is a noticeable difference, then it continued to Duncan's multiple range test. The analysis showed that the water content, fat content, and pH sausage has significant effect, but the protein content was not significantly between the sausages were not given margarine (P-1 and the sausages are given margarine (P-2, P-3 and P-4. The sausage produced will increase the protein content, fat content, and pH with increasing percentage of margarine given, otherwise the moisture content will decrease. Based on sensory testing (appearance, color, flavor, texture and total acceptance, culled layer hens sausage can be accepted by consumers. Sausages were given margarine value ranges between 7.0 to 8.4 (just like - really like and were not given margarine has lower value ranging from 5.2 to 6.9 (neutral - just like.   ABSTRAK Penelitian mengenai pengaruh pemberian margarin terhadap sifat fisiko kimiawi dan sensoris sosis ayam petelur afkir adalah untuk mengetahui penambahan margarin terhadap kualitas sosis ayam petelur afkir, selain itu untuk memanfaatkan daging ayam petelur afkir sebagai sumber protein hewani, dan untuk melakukan penganekaragaman pangan, sehingga produk yang dihasilkan dapat diterima oleh konsumen. Penelitian ini dilakukan secara eksperimental dengan rancangan acak lengkap pola searah dengan empat perlakuan pemberian margarin 0,0 %; 2,5 %; 5

  11. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE...

  12. Risk-based inspection of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masopust, R.

    1995-01-01

    A multidiscipline research programme was developed in the USA to establish risk-based inspections for NPP structures and equipment components. Based on this US research effort, the risk-based procedure for developing inspection guidelines for NPPs is described. The procedure includes the definition of systems, qualitative risk assessment, qualitative risk analysis and development of the inspection programme. The method, when adopted and modified, is recommended also for risk-based inspections of structures and equipment of WWER-type NPPs. A pilot application of the method to unit 1 of the Surry NPP is summarized. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig., 5 refs

  13. Risk-based plant performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Azarm, M.A.; Hall, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    Tasked by the 1979 President's Commission on the Accident at Three Mile Island, the U.S. nuclear power industry has put into place a performance indicator program as one means for showing a demonstrable record of achievement. Largely through the efforts of the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO), plant performance data has, since 1983, been collected and analyzed to aid utility management in measuring their plants' performance progress. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has also developed a set of performance indicators. This program, conducted by NRC's Office for the Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD), is structured to present information on plant operational performance in a manner that could enhance the staff's ability to recognize changes in the safety performance. Both organizations recognized that performance indicators have limitations and could be subject to misinterpretation and misuse with the potential for an adverse impact on safety. This paper reports on performance indicators presently in use, e.g., unplanned automatic scrams, unplanned safety system actuation, safety system failures, etc., which are logically related to safety. But, a reliability/risk-based method for evaluating either individual indicators or an aggregated set of indicators is not yet available

  14. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  15. Lifestyle-based risk model for fall risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Sannino, Giovanna; De Falco, Ivanoe; De Pietro, Guiseppe

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify the explicit relationship between life-style and the risk of falling under the form of a mathematical model. Starting from some personal and behavioral information of a subject as, e.g., weight, height, age, data about physical activity habits, and concern about falling, the model would estimate the score of her/his Mini-Balance Evaluation Systems (Mini-BES) test. This score ranges within 0 and 28, and the lower its value the more likely the subj...

  16. Risk of Debt-Based Financing in Indonesian Islamic Banking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kharisya Ayu Effendi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to know the risk of debt-based financing in Islamic banking in Indonesia by using an accounting based calculation, those are NPF analysis, Credit risk Z-score and Altman Z-score. This study is telling about the risk of debt-based finacing on Indonesian Islamic banking using an accounting based measurement, those are NPF analysis, Credit Risk Z-score analysis and Altman Z-score analysis. The data was obtained from 2011 to 2015 from the website of each bank. The result is a risk on debt-based financing on Indonesian Islamic banking is low. The measurement using 3 accounting based measurement tool gives a consistent result, that is Indonesian Islamic banking use a debt-based financing have a high financial stability and a low risk.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.4821

  17. The term 'risk' and its evaluation bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brueckner, R.

    1976-01-01

    The term risk, the risk itself and its application for radiation exposure in practised medicine is presented from the following points of view: Life expectation, susceptibility to sickness and permanent inability to work, impaired professional and earning capacity, work accident and sickness. (HP) [de

  18. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  19. Assessment of the Farm Management of Culling Cattle: A Survey of Existing Practices and Suggestions for Drafting of Best Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frattasi, Alessandro Russo; Cesano, Lorenzo; Botta, Michelangelo

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate different aspects regarding culled cattle and to suggest operating procedures for their correct management. Information collected in Piedmont region allowed for an assessment of the number of cattle put down on the farm, a quantification of slaughters performed in urgency and emergency (SUS/SES) and a headcount of those which died during farming. The survey highlighted the limited use of euthanasia or putting down compared to the number of cases of SUS/SES which were approximately ten times higher. If cattle displays severe health problems, such as a multifactorial disease like downer cow, the farmer has to decide rapidly the treatment to avoid cattle distress. A checklist has been developed and a flow chart has been revised to assist farmers and vets to quicken the decision-taking process and to manage the cattle in a more efficient manner. During this study a number of different problems have been stressed out. Particularly, the shortcomings in the training of operators commissioned to manage the animals, the inadequacy of structures used for the sheltering and slaughter of bovines on the farm, and differences in the operating procedures for culled cattle across the territory. From the obtained results, we can conclude that it is necessary to adopt a transversal approach, so that the information regarding these animals (welfare, health status, drug treatments and destination) will be uniform and adequate during all the steps of production, to ensure animal welfare and food safety. PMID:27800327

  20. Assessment of the farm management of culling cattle: a survey of existing practices and suggestions for drafting of best practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Russo Frattasi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to evaluate different aspects regarding culled cattle and to suggest operating procedures for their correct management. Information collected in Piedmont region allowed for an assessment of the number of cattle put down on the farm, a quantification of slaughters performed in urgency and emergency (SUS/SES and a headcount of those which died during farming. The survey highlighted the limited use of euthanasia or putting down compared to the number of cases of SUS/SES which were approximately ten times higher. If cattle displays severe health problems, such as a multifactorial disease like downer cow, the farmer has to decide rapidly the treatment to avoid cattle distress. A checklist has been developed and a flow chart has been revised to assist farmers and vets to quicken the decision-taking process and to manage the cattle in a more efficient manner. During this study a number of different problems have been stressed out. Particularly, the shortcomings in the training of operators commissioned to manage the animals, the inadequacy of structures used for the sheltering and slaughter of bovines on the farm, and differences in the operating procedures for culled cattle across the territory. From the obtained results, we can conclude that it is necessary to adopt a transversal approach, so that the information regarding these animals (welfare, health status, drug treatments and destination will be uniform and adequate during all the steps of production, to ensure animal welfare and food safety.

  1. Designing a risk-based surveillance program for Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis in Norwegian dairy herds using multivariate statistical process control analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whist, A C; Liland, K H; Jonsson, M E; Sæbø, S; Sviland, S; Østerås, O; Norström, M; Hopp, P

    2014-11-01

    Surveillance programs for animal diseases are critical to early disease detection and risk estimation and to documenting a population's disease status at a given time. The aim of this study was to describe a risk-based surveillance program for detecting Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in Norwegian dairy cattle. The included risk factors for detecting MAP were purchase of cattle, combined cattle and goat farming, and location of the cattle farm in counties containing goats with MAP. The risk indicators included production data [culling of animals >3 yr of age, carcass conformation of animals >3 yr of age, milk production decrease in older lactating cows (lactations 3, 4, and 5)], and clinical data (diarrhea, enteritis, or both, in animals >3 yr of age). Except for combined cattle and goat farming and cattle farm location, all data were collected at the cow level and summarized at the herd level. Predefined risk factors and risk indicators were extracted from different national databases and combined in a multivariate statistical process control to obtain a risk assessment for each herd. The ordinary Hotelling's T(2) statistic was applied as a multivariate, standardized measure of difference between the current observed state and the average state of the risk factors for a given herd. To make the analysis more robust and adapt it to the slowly developing nature of MAP, monthly risk calculations were based on data accumulated during a 24-mo period. Monitoring of these variables was performed to identify outliers that may indicate deviance in one or more of the underlying processes. The highest-ranked herds were scattered all over Norway and clustered in high-density dairy cattle farm areas. The resulting rankings of herds are being used in the national surveillance program for MAP in 2014 to increase the sensitivity of the ongoing surveillance program in which 5 fecal samples for bacteriological examination are collected from 25 dairy herds

  2. Effect of feeding complete feed block containing rumen protected protein, non-protein nitrogen and rumen protected fat on improving body condition and carcass traits of cull ewes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, R S; Sahoo, A

    2017-12-01

    Nutrient utilization, body condition and carcass traits of cull ewes were studied in three dietary regimens based on complete feed block (CFB) feeding to control (C) with rumen protected protein (RPP), CU [RPP + urea (6 g/kg)] and CUF [RPP + urea + rumen protected fat (RPF; 40 g/kg)]. The RPP component (g/kg) in C had 1% formaldehyde-treated soy flakes 50, mustard cake 50 and sesame cake 30. The mustard and sesame cakes were replaced with urea on equivalent N basis in CU and CUF. The ewes were offered ad libitum CFB composed (g/kg) of concentrate 650, roughage 300 and molasses 50. The digestibility of OM and EE was higher (p Ewes in all the groups showed an improvement in carcass traits at 90 day. The pre-slaughter weight was higher (p ewes. Journal of Animal Physiology and Animal Nutrition © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  3. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  4. Process-based project proposal risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alok Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We all are aware of the organizational omnipresence. Projects within the organizations are ubiquitous too. Projects achieve their goals successfully if they are planned, scheduled, controlled and implemented well. The project lifecycle of initiating, planning, scheduling, controlling and implementing are very well-planned by project managers and the organizations. Successful projects have well-developed risk management plans to deal with situations impacting projects. Like any other organisation, a university does try to access funds for different purposes too. For such organisations, running a project is not the issue, rather getting a project proposal approved to fund a project is the key. Project proposal processing is done by the nodal office in every organisation. Usually, these nodal offices help in administration and submission of a project proposal for accessing funds. Seldom are these nodal project offices within the organizations facilitate a project proposal approval by proactively reaching out to the project managers. And as project managers prepare project proposals, little or no attention is made to prepare a project proposal risk plan so as to maximise project acquisition. Risk plans are submitted while preparing proposals but these risk plans cater to a requirement to address actual projects upon approval. Hence, a risk management plan for project proposal is either missing or very little effort is made to treat the risks inherent in project acquisition. This paper is an integral attempt to highlight the importance of risk treatment for project proposal stage as an extremely important step to preparing the risk management plan made for projects corresponding to their lifecycle phases. Several tools and techniques have been proposed in the paper to help and guide either the project owner (proposer or the main organisational unit responsible for project management. Development of tools and techniques to further enhance project

  5. Air Quality Monitoring: Risk-Based Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, John T.

    2009-01-01

    Air monitoring is secondary to rigid control of risks to air quality. Air quality monitoring requires us to target the credible residual risks. Constraints on monitoring devices are severe. Must transition from archival to real-time, on-board monitoring. Must provide data to crew in a way that they can interpret findings. Dust management and monitoring may be a major concern for exploration class missions.

  6. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  7. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    OpenAIRE

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based Requirements Prioritization method (RiskREP) that extends misuse case-based methods with IT architecture based risk assessment and countermeasure definition and prioritization. Countermeasure prioritizati...

  8. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  9. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  10. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  11. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected

  12. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  13. Risk assessment and model for community-based construction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It, therefore, becomes necessary to systematically manage uncertainty in community-based construction in order to increase the likelihood of meeting project objectives using necessary risk management strategies. Risk management, which is an iterative process due to the dynamic nature of many risks, follows three main ...

  14. Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

    2007-01-01

    Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

  15. A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Dhar, Vasant; Lewis, Barry; Peters, James

    1988-01-01

    Within the academic and professional auditing communities, there has been growing concern about how to accurately assess the various risks associated with performing an audit. These risks are difficult to conceptualize in terms of numeric estimates. This article discusses the development of a prototype computational model (computer program) that assesses one of the major audit risks -- inherent risk. This program bases most of its inferencing activities on a qualitative model of a typical bus...

  16. Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Jidong; Tao, Ye; Wang, Haoran; Chen, Tao

    2015-01-01

    With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions....

  17. Principles of risk-based decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    United States. Coast Guard. Risk based decision-making guidelines

    2001-01-01

    ... original content in order to make this product more generically applicable and less Coast Guard specific. h s k assessment and risk management are important topics in industry and government. Because of limited resources and increasing demands for services, most organizations simply cannot continue business as usual. Even if resources are not dec...

  18. Internet-based screening for dementia risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jason; Sullivan, Campbell; Burrell, Larry E; Rogerson, Mark; Anderson, Allan

    2013-01-01

    The Dementia Risk Assessment (DRA) is an online tool consisting of questions about known risk factors for dementia, a novel verbal memory test, and an informant report of cognitive decline. Its primary goal is to educate the public about dementia risk factors and encourage clinical evaluation where appropriate. In Study 1, more than 3,000 anonymous persons over age 50 completed the DRA about themselves; 1,000 people also completed proxy reports about another person. Advanced age, lower education, male sex, complaints of severe memory impairment, and histories of cerebrovascular disease, Parkinson's disease, and brain tumor all contributed significantly to poor memory performance. A high correlation was obtained between proxy-reported decline and actual memory test performance. In Study 2, 52 persons seeking first-time evaluation at dementia clinics completed the DRA prior to their visits. Their responses (and those of their proxy informants) were compared to the results of independent evaluation by geriatric neuropsychiatrists. The 30 patients found to meet criteria for probable Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, or frontotemporal dementia differed on the DRA from the 22 patients without dementia (most other neuropsychiatric conditions). Scoring below criterion on the DRA's memory test had moderately high predictive validity for clinically diagnosed dementia. Although additional studies of larger clinical samples are needed, the DRA holds promise for wide-scale screening for dementia risk.

  19. Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2007-01-01

    The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many, noti...

  20. Risk based technique for improving technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I. S.; Jae, M. S.; Kim, B. S.; Hwang, S. W.; Kang, K. M.; Park, S. S.; Yu, Y. S.

    2001-03-01

    The objective of this study is to develop the systematic guidance for reviewing the documents associated with the changes of technical specifications. The work done in this fiscal year is the following : surveys in TS requirements, TS improvements and TS regulations in foreign countries as well as Korea, surveys on the state-of-the-art of RITSs and their use in Korea, development of a decision-making framework for both the licensee and the regulation agency, description of risk measures, assessment methodology on STI/AOT, and adverse effects caused by periodic maintenance, which are explained in appendix. The results of this study might contribute to enhancing the quality of the current technical specifications and contribute to preparing the risk informed regulation program using the decision-making framework developed in this study

  1. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M.

    1995-01-01

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities

  2. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

  3. Risk-based zoning for urbanizing floodplains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porse, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Urban floodplain development brings economic benefits and enhanced flood risks. Rapidly growing cities must often balance the economic benefits and increased risks of floodplain settlement. Planning can provide multiple flood mitigation and environmental benefits by combining traditional structural measures such as levees, increasingly popular landscape and design features (green infrastructure), and non-structural measures such as zoning. Flexibility in both structural and non-structural options, including zoning procedures, can reduce flood risks. This paper presents a linear programming formulation to assess cost-effective urban floodplain development decisions that consider benefits and costs of development along with expected flood damages. It uses a probabilistic approach to identify combinations of land-use allocations (residential and commercial development, flood channels, distributed runoff management) and zoning regulations (development zones in channel) to maximize benefits. The model is applied to a floodplain planning analysis for an urbanizing region in the Baja Sur peninsula of Mexico. The analysis demonstrates how (1) economic benefits drive floodplain development, (2) flexible zoning can improve economic returns, and (3) cities can use landscapes, enhanced by technology and design, to manage floods. The framework can incorporate additional green infrastructure benefits, and bridges typical disciplinary gaps for planning and engineering.

  4. PENGARUH PELAKSANAAN RISK BASED INTERNAL AUDITING TERHADAP PENCEGAHAN FRAUD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rozmita Dewi Yuniarti Rozali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the effect of implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on internal audit Inspection Office Bank BRI Bandung Region. The sample used by 18 internal auditors in Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region saturated sampling method. Based on calculation of simple regression analysis obtained result that every increase of implementation of risk based internal auditing (X will lead to increase fraud prevention (Y. It shows that there is a positive influence between the implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on the internal audit of Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region.

  5. The effects of skeletal separation and moisture enhancement for improving the eating quality of cull cow beef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streiter, P J; Campbell, C P; Mandell, I B

    2012-12-01

    Sixty-two cull beef cows were slaughtered to investigate effects of skeletal separation and moisture enhancement on beef eating quality. Muscles from each carcass side were randomly assigned to 1) no postmortem processing (NPP), 2) prerigor skeletal separation (SS), 3) moisture enhancement (ME) using calcium ascorbate or 4) a combination of SS and ME (SS/ME). Postmortem processing treatment (PPT) by ageing (PM) interactions (Padditive effect of combining SS and ME improved palatability traits versus SS or ME alone. Panellists found no differences (P>0.14) in softness and tenderness between SS/ME and Canadian AA or AAA beef. Postmortem processing of beef cows may produce beef as tender and juicy as beef from younger carcasses. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

    2016-09-30

    Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

  8. Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

  9. Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  10. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  11. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  12. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  13. Risk Based Maintenance in Electricity Network Organisations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mehairjan, R.P.Y.

    2016-01-01

    Presently, maintenance management of assets in infrastructure utilities such as electricity, gas and water are widely undergoing changes towards new working environments. These are mainly driven against the background of stringent regulatory regimes, an ageing asset base, increased customer demands

  14. III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

    2017-06-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Application of risk-based inspection methods for cryogenic equipment

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Risk-based Inspection (RBI) is widely applied across the world as part of Pressure Equipment Integrity Management, especially in the oil and gas industry, to generally reduce costs compared with time-based approaches and assist in assigning resources to the most critical equipment. One of the challenges in RBI is to apply it for low temperature and cryogenic applications, as there are usually no degradation mechanisms by which to determine a suitable probability of failure in the overall risk assessment. However, the assumptions used for other degradation mechanisms can be adopted to determine, qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, a consequence of failure within the risk assessment. This can assist in providing a consistent basis for the assumptions used in ensuring adequate process safety barriers and determining suitable sizing of relief devices. This presentation will discuss risk-based inspection in the context of cryogenic safety, as well as present some of the considerations for the risk assessme...

  16. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thadani, A.C.

    1997-01-01

    This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

  17. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  18. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Velthuis, A.G.J.

    2014-01-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process

  19. Risk-Based Educational Accountability in Dutch Primary Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, A. C.; de Wolf, I. F.; Bosker, R. J.; Doolaard, S.

    2015-01-01

    A recent development in educational accountability is a risk-based approach, in which intensity and frequency of school inspections vary across schools to make educational accountability more efficient and effective by enabling inspectorates to focus on organizations at risk. Characteristics relevant in predicting which schools are "at risk…

  20. Event-based historical value-at-risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogenboom, F.P.; Winter, Michael; Hogenboom, A.C.; Jansen, Milan; Frasincar, F.; Kaymak, U.

    2012-01-01

    Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an important tool to assess portfolio risk. When calculating VaR based on historical stock return data, we hypothesize that this historical data is sensitive to outliers caused by news events in the sampled period. In this paper, we research whether the VaR accuracy can be

  1. Risk based decision tool for space exploration missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steve; Moran, Terrence

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an approach and corresponding tool to assess and analyze the risks involved in a mission during the pre-phase A design process. This approach is based on creating a risk template for each subsystem expert involved in the mission design process and defining appropriate interactions between the templates.

  2. Risk Based Corrosion Studies at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, E.

    2010-01-01

    TYPE I and II (ASTM 285-B) - Experienced stress corrosion cracking (SCC), 2 have been closed; 22 scheduled for closure by 2017, and No active leak sites today. TYPE III (ASTM A516-70 and A537 Class I) - Post-fabrication relief of weld residual stresses, Improved resistance to SCC and brittle fracture, No leakage history, and Receives new waste. The objectives are to utilize statistical methods to reduce conservatism in current chemistry control program; and express nitrite inhibitor limits in terms of pitting risk on waste tank steel. Conclusions are: (1) A statistically designed experimental study has been undertaken to improve the effectiveness of the minimum nitrite concentrations to inhibit pitting corrosion; (2) Mixture/amount model supports that pitting depends on the ratio of aggressive to inhibitive anions, as well as the concentration of each species; (3) Secondary aggressive species, Cl - and SO 4 2- , significantly effect the corrosion response; and (4) Results support the reduction of the chemistry control nitrite inhibitor concentrations in the regime of 0.8-1.0 M nitrate.

  3. Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Septiani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs. 

  4. Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

    2007-02-01

    A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

  5. Assessment of Home-Based Nigerian Engineers on Risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of Home-Based Nigerian Engineers on Risk Management Approach ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Correlation methods were adopted for statistical ...

  6. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.

    2010-01-01

    Today, companies are required to be in control of the security of their IT assets. This is especially challenging in the presence of limited budgets and conflicting requirements. Here, we present Risk-Based Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (RiskREP), a method for managing IT security

  7. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  8. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  9. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Risk based regulation: a convenient concept for legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    Legislation and regulation concerning risk activities are traditionally based on deterministic safety measures. This may lead to inefficient results: sometimes the law requires safety measures which are - from an economic viewpoint - not justified because of their poor cost-effectiveness; sometimes it does not require safety measures although they would be very efficient. The risk based regulation approach wants to make the law more efficient and to get more safety at less costs. Legislation and regulation should be based on terms of risk rather than on deterministic rules. Risk should be expressed in quantitative terms and risk regulation should be based on the cost-effectiveness of safety measures. Thus a most efficient (in the sense of the economic analysis of the law) strategy for safety and environmental law could be established. The approach is economically reasonable and theoretically convincing. Its practical implementation however raises a lot of technical and legal questions. The project 'Risk Based Regulation' (1996-1999), sponsored by the Swiss National Fund for Scientific Research, intends to evaluate the practical feasibility of the approach from a technical and a legal view. It contains a general part which describes the risk based regulation approach and its legal and technical questions, case studies which try to practically implement the risk based regulation approach; the case studies are: storage and management of explosives in the army, storage and management of explosives for non-military purposes, safety at work, accident prevention in the non-professional field (mainly road accidents), fire protection, transportation of dangerous goods, waste disposal: traditional waste, waste disposal: radioactive waste, nuclear energy (reactor safety), a synthesis with recommendations for the future legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks. The paper presents the project and its preliminary results. (author)

  11. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  12. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  13. Risk-based inspection--Development of guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-07-01

    Effective inservice inspection programs can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. Most of the current inservice inspection programs for light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant components are based on experience and engineers' qualitative judgment. These programs include only an implicit consideration of risk, which combines the probability of failure of a component under its operation and loading conditions and the consequences of such failure, if it occurs. This document recommends appropriate methods for establishing a risk-based inspection program for LWR nuclear power plant components. The process has been built from a general methodology (Volume 1) and has been expanded to involve five major steps: defining the system; evaluating qualitative risk assessment results; using this and information from plant probabilistic risk assessments to perform a quantitative risk analysis; selecting target failure probabilities; and developing an inspection program for components using economic decision analysis and structural reliability assessment methods

  14. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  15. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Stian [Section for Control Systems, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Stian.Ruud@dnv.com; Mikkelsen, Age [Section for Lifting Appliances, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Age.Mikkelsen@dnv.com

    2008-09-15

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented.

  16. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruud, Stian; Mikkelsen, Age

    2008-01-01

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented

  17. Perception of mobile phone and base station risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegrist, Michael; Earle, Timothy C; Gutscher, Heinz; Keller, Carmen

    2005-10-01

    Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N = 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

  18. Risk-based technical specifications program: Site interview results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andre, G.R.; Baker, A.J.; Johnson, R.L.

    1991-08-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute and Pacific Gas and Electric Company are sponsoring a program directed at improving Technical Specifications using risk-based methods. The major objectives of the program are to develop risk-based approaches to improve Technical Specifications and to develop an Interactive Risk Advisor (IRA) prototype. The IRA is envisioned as an interactive system that is available to plant personnel to assist in controlling plant operation. Use of an IRA is viewed as a method to improve plant availability while maintaining or improving plant safety. In support of the program, interviews were conducted at several PWR and BWR plant sites, to elicit opinions and information concerning risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications and IRA requirements. This report presents the results of these interviews, including the functional requirements of an IRA. 2 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

  19. Risk based maintenance to increase safety and decrease costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.

    2000-01-01

    Risk-Based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants for the last eight years by a team working through the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development (CRTD). System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis or Probabilistic Safety Analysis developed to meet the Individual Plant Evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for the Maintenance Rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low risk-significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. Pilot studies on risk-based testing indicate that about 60% of pumps and 25 to 30% of valves in plants are high safety-significant The reduction in inspection and testing reduces the person-rem exposure and resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publications by the ASME CRTD which are referenced. (author)

  20. Configuration control based on risk matrix for radiotherapy treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montes de Oca Quinnones, Joe; Torres Valle, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    The incorporation of the science and technique breakthroughs in the application of the radiotherapy represents a challenge so that, the appearance of equipment failure or human mistakes that triggers unfavorable consequences for patients, public, or the occupationally exposed workers; it is also diversified forcing to incorporate besides, as part of the efforts, new techniques for the evaluation of risk and the detection of the weak points that can lead to these consequences. In order to evaluate the risks of the radiotherapy practices there is the SEVRRA code, based on the method of Risk Matrix. The system SEVRRA is the most frequently used code in the applications of risk studies in radiotherapy treatment. On the other hand, starting from the development of tools to control the dangerous configurations in nuclear power plants, it has been developed the SECURE code, which in its application variant of Risk Matrix, has gain a comfortable interface man-machine to make risk analyses to the radiotherapy treatment, molding in this way a lot of combinations of scenarios. These capacities outstandingly facilitate the studies and risk optimization applications in these practices. In the system SECURE-Risk Matrix are incorporated graphic and analytical capacities, which make more flexible the analyses and the subsequent documentation of all the results. The paper shows the the application of the proposed system to an integral risk study for the process of radiotherapy treatment with linear accelerator. (Author)

  1. Risk-based remediation of polluted sites: A critical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuppusamy, Saranya; Venkateswarlu, Kadiyala; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Mayilswami, Srinithi; Lee, Yong Bok

    2017-11-01

    Sites contaminated with chemical pollutants represent a growing challenge, and remediation of such lands is of international concern. Risk-based land management (RBLM) is an emerging approach that integrates risk assessment practices with more traditional site-specific investigations and remediation activities. Developing countries are yet to adopt RBLM strategies for remediation. RBLM is considered to be practical, scientifically defensible and cost-efficient. However, it is inherently limited by: firstly, the accuracy of risk assessment models used; secondly, ramifications of the fact that they are more likely to leave contamination in place; and thirdly, uncertainties involved and having to consider the total concentrations of all contaminants in soils that overestimate the potential risks from exposure to the contaminants. Consideration of contaminant bioavailability as the underlying basis for risk assessment and setting remediation goals of those contaminated lands that pose a risk to environmental and human health may lead to the development of a more sophisticated risk-based approach. However, employing the bioavailability concept in RBLM has not been extensively studied and/or legalized. This review highlights the extent of global land contamination, and the concept of risk-based assessment and management of contaminated sites including its advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, the concept of bioavailability-based RBLM strategy has been proposed, and the challenges of RBLM and the priority areas for future research are summarized. Thus, the present review may help achieve a better understanding and successful implementation of a sustainable bioavailability-based RBLM strategy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...

  3. Benefits of Risk Based Inspection Planning for Offshore Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Straub, D.M.; Goyet, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2006-01-01

    The economical benefits of applying risk-based inspection planning (RBI) for offshore structures subject to fatigue are evaluated based on experiences from past industrial projects. To this end, the factors influencing the cost of inspection, repair and failure of structures are discussed......, the financial benefit of RBI is assessed....

  4. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2009-01-01

    For offshore wind turbines costs to operation and maintenance are substantial. This paper describes a risk-based lifecycle approach for optimal planning of operation and maintenance. The approach is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. Deterioration mechanisms such as fatigue, corrosion...

  5. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

    to oil and gas structures. In addition, condition monitoring systems are often available, and the information should be taken into account when making decisions. In this thesis, methods for risk-based maintenance planning using Bayesian methods are investigated, with the aim of making optimal decisions......, but presently maintenance is not planned using advanced methods taking all available information into account in a consistent manner. Maintenance decisions can be made based on risk-based methods, where the total expected life cycle costs are minimized. Methods have been developed for assessing the corrective...... considering all available information. First, a theoretical damage model is formulated, the model is then updated using condition monitoring data, and the updated model is used as basis for risk-based decision making. Several approaches for solving the decision problems have been considered: various types...

  6. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  7. An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

    2017-11-17

    Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  9. Towards risk-based structural integrity methods for PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Lloyd, R.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the development of risk-based structural integrity assurance methods and their application to Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) plant. In-service inspection is introduced as a way of reducing the failure probability of high risk sites and the latter are identified using reliability analysis; the extent and interval of inspection can also be optimized. The methodology is illustrated by reference to the aspect of reliability of weldments in PWR systems. (author)

  10. Quantification of Technology Innovation Usinga Risk-Based Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Gerard E. Sleefe

    2010-01-01

    There is significant interest in achieving technology innovation through new product development activities. It is recognized, however, that traditional project management practices focused only on performance, cost, and schedule attributes, can often lead to risk mitigation strategies that limit new technology innovation. In this paper, a new approach is proposed for formally managing and quantifying technology innovation. This approach uses a risk-based framework that s...

  11. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  12. Application of risk-based methodologies to prioritize safety resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Hosler, J.

    1993-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) started a program entitled risk-based prioritization in 1992. The purpose of this program is to provide generic technical support to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of operations and maintenance (O ampersand M) cost control using state-of-the-art risk methods. The approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. Specifically, those items or events that have high risk significance would receive the most attention, while those with little risk content would command fewer resources. As quantified in a companion paper,close-quote the potential O ampersand M cost reduction inherent in this approach is very large. Furthermore, risk-based methods should also lead to safety improvements. This paper outlines the way that the EPRI technical work complements the technical, policy, and regulatory initiatives taken by others in the industry and provides an example of the approach as used to prioritize motor-operated valve (MOV) testing in response to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Generic Letter 89-10

  13. Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jidong Chen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions. To extend the fraud risk prevention ability to external customers, Alibaba also built up a big data based fraud prevention product called AntBuckler. AntBuckler aims to identify and prevent all flavors of malicious behaviors with flexibility and intelligence for online merchants and banks. By combining large amount data of Alibaba and customers', AntBuckler uses the RAIN score engine to quantify risk levels of users or transactions for fraud prevention. It also has a user-friendly visualization UI with risk scores, top reasons and fraud connections.

  14. Risk Assessment of Engineering Project Financing Based on PPP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Qiuli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the project financing channel is single, and the urban facilities are in short supply, and the risk assessment and prevention mechanism of financing should be further improved to reduce the risk of project financing. In view of this, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of project financing risk which combined the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process is established. The scientificalness and effectiveness of the model are verified by the example of the world port project in Luohe city, and it provides basis and reference for engineering project financing based on PPP mode.

  15. Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

  16. Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowled, Brendan D; Garner, M Graeme; Negus, Katherine; Ward, Michael P

    2012-01-16

    Disease modelling is one approach for providing new insights into wildlife disease epidemiology. This paper describes a spatio-temporal, stochastic, susceptible- exposed-infected-recovered process model that simulates the potential spread of classical swine fever through a documented, large and free living wild pig population following a simulated incursion. The study area (300 000 km2) was in northern Australia. Published data on wild pig ecology from Australia, and international Classical Swine Fever data was used to parameterise the model. Sensitivity analyses revealed that herd density (best estimate 1-3 pigs km-2), daily herd movement distances (best estimate approximately 1 km), probability of infection transmission between herds (best estimate 0.75) and disease related herd mortality (best estimate 42%) were highly influential on epidemic size but that extraordinary movements of pigs and the yearly home range size of a pig herd were not. CSF generally established (98% of simulations) following a single point introduction. CSF spread at approximately 9 km2 per day with low incidence rates (management in wildlife. An important finding was that it may only be necessary to cull or vaccinate relatively small proportions of a population to successfully contain and eradicate some wildlife disease epidemics.

  17. Trailer temperature and humidity during winter transport of cattle in Canada and evaluation of indicators used to assess the welfare of cull beef cows before and after transport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldhawk, C; Janzen, E; González, L A; Crowe, T; Kastelic, J; Kehler, C; Siemens, M; Ominski, K; Pajor, E; Schwartzkopf-Genswein, K S

    2015-07-01

    The current study evaluated 17 loads of cull beef cows transported in Canadian winter conditions to assess in-transit temperature and humidity, evaluation of events during loading and unloading, and animal condition and bruising. Regardless of the use of boards to block ventilation holes in trailers, temperatures were higher within trailers than at ambient locations during both travel and stationary periods (P cow transport may be related to pretransport animal condition and management of unloading.

  18. Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yuan

    2018-04-01

    GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

  19. Qualitative Evaluation of the Five-Year ‘Red Collar’ Campaign to End Inhumane Culling of Dogs as a Method of Rabies Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elly Hiby

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dog-mediated human rabies can be eliminated through mass dog vaccination. Despite leading authorities in human and animal health uniting to advance effective and humane rabies control, some governments resort to lethal methods, which are unethical, often inhumane and ineffective. To end the inhumane culling of dogs in response to rabies, World Animal Protection launched ‘Red Collar’; a five-year campaign (2011–2016 that worked with governments to promote the implementation of mass dog vaccination for rabies control. We present the findings from a qualitative evaluation of ‘Red Collar’, conducted both regionally and with national focus on Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Zanzibar, Tanzania. Through semi-structured interviews and written contributions from stakeholders (n = 54, we compared perceptions of changes with stated campaign goals to capture recommendations for future work. The campaign successfully generated momentum for implementation of mass dog vaccination by targeted governments. Lessons learned were established: Value of a consistent animal welfare ‘voice’; the need to explore the motivations behind culling; the need to capacity build; time required for the ‘ripple effect’ to inspire humane control in other countries; importance of monitoring and evaluation of indicators; time and effort required for exit strategies and prior preparation for a robust response to culling.

  20. Qualitative Evaluation of the Five-Year 'Red Collar' Campaign to End Inhumane Culling of Dogs as a Method of Rabies Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiby, Elly; Tasker, Lou

    2018-02-06

    Dog-mediated human rabies can be eliminated through mass dog vaccination. Despite leading authorities in human and animal health uniting to advance effective and humane rabies control, some governments resort to lethal methods, which are unethical, often inhumane and ineffective. To end the inhumane culling of dogs in response to rabies, World Animal Protection launched 'Red Collar'; a five-year campaign (2011-2016) that worked with governments to promote the implementation of mass dog vaccination for rabies control. We present the findings from a qualitative evaluation of 'Red Collar', conducted both regionally and with national focus on Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Zanzibar, Tanzania. Through semi-structured interviews and written contributions from stakeholders ( n = 54), we compared perceptions of changes with stated campaign goals to capture recommendations for future work. The campaign successfully generated momentum for implementation of mass dog vaccination by targeted governments. Lessons learned were established: Value of a consistent animal welfare 'voice'; the need to explore the motivations behind culling; the need to capacity build; time required for the 'ripple effect' to inspire humane control in other countries; importance of monitoring and evaluation of indicators; time and effort required for exit strategies and prior preparation for a robust response to culling.

  1. Consequences of two or four months of finishing feeding of culled dry dairy cows on carcass characteristics and technological and sensory meat quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, Mogens; Bligaard, H. B.; Bredahl, L.

    2007-01-01

    Finishing feeding was evaluated as a way to improve carcass-, meat- and eating quality of culled dairy cows. In total, 125 Danish Friesian cows were purchased from commercial dairy herds. Cows were culled for various typical reasons at different stages of lactation, were non-pregnant and had milk.......16§0.05 kg/d in the finishing period. Compared with C-cows, F2- and F4-cows had 56 and 97 kg higher carcass weight, 10% and 21% larger Longissimus muscle area, and 14 and 70% more backfat, respectively, at time of slaughter. EUROP conformation scores were 2.2 (C), 3.4 (F2) and 4.4 (F4) and EUROP fat scores...... with 1st parity cows, older cows ate 12% more feed, had similar daily gain, were heavier, and had higher BCS and fatness including IMF. The results show that it is possible to dry-off and finish-feed culled dairy cows resulting in larger muscles, increased fatness, improved overall carcass quality...

  2. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  3. A simple data base for identification of risk profiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munganahalli, D.

    1996-12-31

    Sedco Forex is a drilling contractor that operates approximately 80 rigs on land and offshore worldwide. The HSE management system developed by Sedco Forex is an effort to prevent accidents and minimize losses. An integral part of the HSE management system is establishing risk profiles and thereby minimizing risk and reducing loss exposures. Risk profiles are established based on accident reports, potential accident reports and other risk identification reports (RIR) like the Du Pont STOP system. A rig could fill in as many as 30 accident reports, 30 potential accident reports and 500 STOP cards each year. Statistics are important for an HSE management system, since they are indicators of success or failure of HSE systems. It is however difficult to establish risk profiles based on statistical information, unless tools are available at the rig site to aid with the analysis. Risk profiles are then used to identify important areas in the operation that may require specific attention to minimize the loss exposure. Programs to address the loss exposure can then be identified and implemented with either a local or corporate approach. In January 1995, Sedco Forex implemented a uniform HSE Database on all the rigs worldwide. In one year companywide, the HSE database would contain information on approximately 500 accident and potential accident reports, and 10,000 STOP cards. This paper demonstrates the salient features of the database and describes how it has helped in establishing key risk profiles. It also shows a recent example of how risk profiles have been established at the corporate level and used to identify the key contributing factors to hands and finger injuries. Based on this information, a campaign was launched to minimize the frequency of occurrence and associated loss attributed to hands and fingers accidents.

  4. Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haire, M.J.; Guthrie, V.; Walker, D.; Singer, R.

    1995-01-01

    The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry)

  5. Promotion of technical harmonisation on risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchsteiger, Christian; Cojazzi, Giacomo

    2000-01-01

    The EC-JRC International Workshop on Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making, held at Stresa and Ispra, Italy, 22-25 May 2000, was an experts meeting to discuss the possible need of developing an internationally accepted generic 'standard' for risk-based decision making.This paper briefly describes the workshop background, its organisation and summarises its main results and conclusions; it reflects the personal opinions of the authors and in no way commits the European Commission. (author)

  6. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

    2014-02-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalopoulos Evangelos

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

  8. Genetic variation in the base excision repair pathway, environmental risk factors, and colorectal adenoma risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Corral

    Full Text Available Cigarette smoking, high alcohol intake, and low dietary folate levels are risk factors for colorectal adenomas. Oxidative damage caused by these three factors can be repaired through the base excision repair pathway (BER. We hypothesized that genetic variation in BER might modify colorectal adenoma risk. In a sigmoidoscopy-based study, we examined associations between 182 haplotype tagging SNPs in 14 BER genes, and colorectal adenoma risk, and examined their potential role as modifiers of the effect cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, and dietary folate levels. Among all individuals, no statistically significant associations between BER SNPs and adenoma risk persisted after correction for multiple comparisons. However, among Asian-Pacific Islanders we observed two SNPs in FEN1 and one in NTHL1, and among African-Americans one SNP in APEX1 that were associated with colorectal adenoma risk. Significant associations were also observed between SNPs in the NEIL2 gene and rectal adenoma risk. Three SNPS modified the effect of smoking (MUTYH interaction p = 0.002; OGG1 interaction p = 0.013; FEN1 interaction p = 0.013, one SNP in LIG3 modified the effect of alcohol consumption (interaction p = 0.024 and two SNPs in LIG3 modified the effect of dietary folate (interaction p = 0.001 and p = 0.08 on colorectal adenoma risk. These findings support a role for genetic variants in the BER pathway as potential modifiers of colorectal adenoma risk. Our findings strengthen the role of oxidative damage induced by key lifestyle and dietary risk factors in colorectal adenoma formation.

  9. Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terrier, Douglas; Clayton, Ronald G.; Patel, Zarana; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice

    2015-01-01

    Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

  10. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  11. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  12. Study of operational risk-based configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1991-08-01

    This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

  13. New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Sharma, Pavan K.; Santosh, T.V.; Hari Prasad, M.; Vaze, K.K.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Study looks into improving the consequence evaluation in risk based inspection. • Ways to revise the quantity factors used in qualitative approach. • New approach based on computational fluid dynamics along with probit mathematics. • Demonstrated this methodology along with a suitable case study for the said issue. - Abstract: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Consequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisation. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H 2 S based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the quantity of H 2 S released

  14. Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and ...

  15. Risk-based indicators of Canadians' exposures to environmental carcinogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setton, Eleanor; Hystad, Perry; Poplawski, Karla; Cheasley, Roslyn; Cervantes-Larios, Alejandro; Keller, C Peter; Demers, Paul A

    2013-02-12

    Tools for estimating population exposures to environmental carcinogens are required to support evidence-based policies to reduce chronic exposures and associated cancers. Our objective was to develop indicators of population exposure to selected environmental carcinogens that can be easily updated over time, and allow comparisons and prioritization between different carcinogens and exposure pathways. We employed a risk assessment-based approach to produce screening-level estimates of lifetime excess cancer risk for selected substances listed as known carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Estimates of lifetime average daily intake were calculated using population characteristics combined with concentrations (circa 2006) in outdoor air, indoor air, dust, drinking water, and food and beverages from existing monitoring databases or comprehensive literature reviews. Intake estimates were then multiplied by cancer potency factors from Health Canada, the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment to estimate lifetime excess cancer risks associated with each substance and exposure pathway. Lifetime excess cancer risks in excess of 1 per million people are identified as potential priorities for further attention. Based on data representing average conditions circa 2006, a total of 18 carcinogen-exposure pathways had potential lifetime excess cancer risks greater than 1 per million, based on varying data quality. Carcinogens with moderate to high data quality and lifetime excess cancer risk greater than 1 per million included benzene, 1,3-butadiene and radon in outdoor air; benzene and radon in indoor air; and arsenic and hexavalent chromium in drinking water. Important data gaps were identified for asbestos, hexavalent chromium and diesel exhaust in outdoor and indoor air, while little data were available to assess risk for substances in dust, food and beverages. The ability to

  16. A new active portfolio risk management for an electricity retailer based on a drawdown risk preference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charwand, Mansour; Gitizadeh, Mohsen; Siano, Pierluigi

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses the deciding under uncertainty of an electricity retailer in order to maximise its total expected rate of return. The developed methodology is based on the modelling of the stochastic evolution of zonal prices that seeks to manage a portfolio of different contracts. Retailer's load and the price at each zone are forecasted using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and a clustering technique is used for scenario reduction. Supply sources include the pool, self-production facilities, forward and bilateral contracts. The risk of cost fluctuation due to uncertainties is explicitly modelled using the multi-scenario drawdown methodology. This risk function quantifies in aggregated format the frequency and magnitude of the portfolio drawdowns over planning horizon. In-sample and out-of-sample runs are performed for a portfolio allocation problem. Carried out experimental results on the basis of realistic data, show that imposing risk constraints improve the “real” performance of a portfolio management in out-of-sample runs. - Highlights: • A new drawdown-based method is introduced to retailer deciding under uncertainty. • This tool is used to assess the risk levels regarding retailer midterm strategies. • The methodology is based on the modeling of the stochastic evolution of zonal prices. • The risk function quantifies the frequency and magnitude of the portfolio drawdowns. • In-sample and out-of-sample runs are performed for a portfolio allocation problem.

  17. Time-based collision risk modeling for air traffic management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Alan E.

    Since the emergence of commercial aviation in the early part of last century, economic forces have driven a steadily increasing demand for air transportation. Increasing density of aircraft operating in a finite volume of airspace is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the risk of collision, and in response to a growing number of incidents and accidents involving collisions between aircraft, governments worldwide have developed air traffic control systems and procedures to mitigate this risk. The objective of any collision risk management system is to project conflicts and provide operators with sufficient opportunity to recognize potential collisions and take necessary actions to avoid them. It is therefore the assertion of this research that the currency of collision risk management is time. Future Air Traffic Management Systems are being designed around the foundational principle of four dimensional trajectory based operations, a method that replaces legacy first-come, first-served sequencing priorities with time-based reservations throughout the airspace system. This research will demonstrate that if aircraft are to be sequenced in four dimensions, they must also be separated in four dimensions. In order to separate aircraft in four dimensions, time must emerge as the primary tool by which air traffic is managed. A functional relationship exists between the time-based performance of aircraft, the interval between aircraft scheduled to cross some three dimensional point in space, and the risk of collision. This research models that relationship and presents two key findings. First, a method is developed by which the ability of an aircraft to meet a required time of arrival may be expressed as a robust standard for both industry and operations. Second, a method by which airspace system capacity may be increased while maintaining an acceptable level of collision risk is presented and demonstrated for the purpose of formulating recommendations for procedures

  18. A School-Based Suicide Risk Assessment Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boccio, Dana E.

    2015-01-01

    Suicide remains the third leading cause of death among young people in the United States. Considering that youth who contemplate suicide generally exhibit warning signs before engaging in lethal self-harm, school-based mental health professionals can play a vital role in identifying students who are at risk for suicidal behavior. Nevertheless, the…

  19. Risk-based management of invading plant disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyatt-Twynam, Samuel R; Parnell, Stephen; Stutt, Richard O J H; Gottwald, Tim R; Gilligan, Christopher A; Cunniffe, Nik J

    2017-05-01

    Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida. We test risk-based control, which preferentially removes hosts expected to cause a high number of infections in the remaining host population. Removals then depend on past patterns of pathogen spread and host removal, which might be nontransparent to affected stakeholders. This motivates a variable radius strategy, which approximates risk-based control via removal radii that vary by location, but which are fixed in advance of any epidemic. Risk-based control outperforms variable radius control, which in turn outperforms constant radius removal. This result is robust to changes in disease spread parameters and initial patterns of susceptible host plants. However, efficiency degrades if epidemiological parameters are incorrectly characterised. Risk-based control including additional epidemiology can be used to improve disease management, but it requires good prior knowledge for optimal performance. This focuses attention on gaining maximal information from past epidemics, on understanding model transferability between locations and on adaptive management strategies that change over time. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  20. 6 CFR 27.230 - Risk-based performance standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based performance standards. 27.230 Section 27.230 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CHEMICAL FACILITY... the facility and that discourages abuse through established disciplinary measures; (4) Deter, Detect...

  1. Develop risk-based procurement management tools for SMEs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Staal, Anne; Hagelaar, Geoffrey; Walhof, Gert; Holman, Richard

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides guidance for developing risk-based management tools to improve the procurement (purchasing) performance of SMEs. Extant academic literature only offers little support on developing such tools and does not consider the wide variety of SMEs. The paper defines a procurement tool for

  2. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cloninger, T.H.

    1997-01-01

    This presentation was made by an executive in the utility which operates the South Texas Project reactors, and summarizes their perspective on probabilistic safety analysis, risk-based operation, and risk-based regulation. They view it as a tool to help them better apply their resources to maintain the level of safety necessary to protect the public health and safety. South Texas served as one of the pilot plants for the application of risk-based regulation to the maintenance rule. The author feels that the process presents opportunities as well as challenges. Among the opportunities is the involvement of more people in the process, and the sense of investment they take in the decisions, in addition to the insight they can offer. In the area of challenges there is the need for better understanding of how to apply what already is known on problems, rather than essentially reinventing the wheel to address problems. Research is needed to better understand when some events are not truly of a significant safety concern. The demarcation between deterministic decisions and the appropriate application of risk-based decisions must be better defined, for the sake of the operator as well as the public observing plant operation

  3. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2006-01-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of

  4. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how risk-based decision making can be used for maintenance planning of components exposed to degradation such as fatigue in offshore wind turbines. In fatigue models, large epistemic uncertainties are usually present. These can be reduced if monitoring results are used to upd...

  5. Agent-Based Modelling for Security Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.A.M.; Sharpans'kykh, Alexei; Bajo, J.; Vale, Z.; Hallenborg, K.; Rocha, A.P.; Mathieu, P.; Pawlewski, P.; Del Val, E.; Novais, P.; Lopes, F.; Duque Méndez, N.D.; Julián, V.; Holmgren, J.

    2017-01-01

    Security Risk Assessment is commonly performed by using traditional methods based on linear probabilistic tools and informal expert judgements. These methods lack the capability to take the inherent dynamic and intelligent nature of attackers into account. To partially address the limitations,

  6. Planning of operation & maintenance using risk and reliability based methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    Operation and maintenance (OM) of offshore wind turbines contributes with a substantial part of the total levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The objective of this paper is to present an application of risk- and reliability-based methods for planning of OM. The theoretical basis is presented...

  7. Feedlot finishing cull cows fed diets with different levels of concentrateTerminação em confinamento de vacas de descarte recebendo dietas com diferentes teores de concentrado

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryon Guilherme Strack

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance and carcass quality and beef and cull cow subjected to diets with two levels of concentrate (1.08 and 1.62% of body weight, whith base in dry matter durind the feedlot finishing. In this study were used twenty cull cows of the breed Aberdeen Angus, Charolais, Caracu, Canchim and Charolais x Caracu whith a mean age of 7.2 years. The average weight gain during the termination was similar between levels 1.08 and 1.62% (1.81 and 2.00 kg/day, respectively. However, animals in the 1.62% group consumed much digestible energy (46.13 Mcal / day compared to the lowest level (38.32 Mcal / day, showing similarity (P > 0.01 in the values of conversion food (6.78 and 6.93 kg dry matter / kg weight gain and energy efficiency (21.68 and 23.40 between the two groups. In feedlot finishing cull cows with an average age of 7.5 years, the increase of the concentrate from 1.08 to 1.62% of body weight based on dry matter based on corn silage, no benefits productive performance of cows nor the quality characteristics of meat. Increasing the concentrate level in the diet of this category can cause greater haunch thickness and better carcass conformation in feedlot finishing.O objetivo do presente estudo foi avaliar o desempenho e a qualidade da carcaça e da carne de vacas de descarte submetidas a dietas com dois teores de concentrado (1,08 e 1,62% do peso vivo, com base na matéria seca durante o processo de terminação em confinamento. Foram utilizadas 20 vacas de descarte, de raça mestiça, que compõem a formação do composto Purunã, Aberdeen Angus, Charolês, Caracu, Canchim e Caracu x Charolês com idade média de 7,2 anos. Independente do nível de concentrado o ganho de peso médio durante a terminação foi semelhante entre os teores 1,08 e 1,62% (1,81 e 2,00 kg/ dia, respectivamente. No entanto, os animais do grupo 1,62% consumiram maior quantidade energia digestível (46,13Mcal/dia em relação ao

  8. A structured approach to control of Salmonella Dublin in 10 Danish dairy herds based on risk scoring and test-and-manage procedures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2012-01-01

    routes of infection; 4) interpretation of repeated testing of individual animals to detect high-risk animals for special hygienic management or culling; and 5) diagnostic testing of different age groups and bulk tank milk to evaluate progress of control over time. Serology, true prevalence estimates...... stock and adult cattle in 10 case herds that were followed for more than three years. The five steps in the structured approach were: 1) risk scoring to determine transmission routes within the herd and into the herd; 2) determining a plan of action; 3) performing management changes to close important...... and changes in herd classification in the Danish surveillance programme for Salmonella Dublin were used to assess the progress in the herds during and after the control period. Effective control of Salmonella Dublin was achieved in all participating herds through management that focused on closing infection...

  9. An Integrated Risk Index Model Based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic for Underground Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Fayaz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Available space in congested cities is getting scarce due to growing urbanization in the recent past. The utilization of underground space is considered as a solution to the limited space in smart cities. The numbers of underground facilities are growing day by day in the developing world. Typical underground facilities include the transit subway, parking lots, electric lines, water supply and sewer lines. The likelihood of the occurrence of accidents due to underground facilities is a random phenomenon. To avoid any accidental loss, a risk assessment method is required to conduct the continuous risk assessment and report any abnormality before it happens. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical fuzzy inference based model for under-ground risk assessment. The proposed hierarchical fuzzy inference architecture reduces the total number of rules from the rule base. Rule reduction is important because the curse of dimensionality damages the transparency and interpretation as it is very tough to understand and justify hundreds or thousands of fuzzy rules. The computation time also increases as rules increase. The proposed model takes 175 rules having eight input parameters to compute the risk index, and the conventional fuzzy logic requires 390,625 rules, having the same number of input parameters to compute risk index. Hence, the proposed model significantly reduces the curse of dimensionality. Rule design for fuzzy logic is also a tedious task. In this paper, we have also introduced new rule schemes, namely maximum rule-based and average rule-based; both schemes can be used interchangeably according to the logic needed for rule design. The experimental results show that the proposed method is a virtuous choice for risk index calculation where the numbers of variables are greater.

  10. RiskREP : risk-based security requirements elicitation and prioritization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, A.; Morali, A.; Etalle, S.; Wieringa, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement "good-enough security" but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

  11. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

  12. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de

    2015-01-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ"2) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue

  13. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ{sup 2}) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue.

  14. Pedestrian safety management using the risk-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romanowska Aleksandra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a concept of a multi-level pedestrian safety management system. Three management levels are distinguished: strategic, tactical and operational. The basis for the proposed approach to pedestrian safety management is a risk-based method. In the approach the elements of behavioural and systemic theories were used, allowing for the development of a formalised and repeatable procedure integrating the phases of risk assessment and response to the hazards of road crashes involving pedestrians. Key to the method are tools supporting pedestrian safety management. According to the risk management approach, the tools can be divided into two groups: tools supporting risk assessment and tools supporting risk response. In the paper attention is paid to selected tools supporting risk assessment, with particular emphasis on the methods for estimating forecasted pedestrian safety measures (at strategic, national and regional level and identification of particularly dangerous locations in terms of pedestrian safety at tactical (regional and local and operational level. The proposed pedestrian safety management methods and tools can support road administration in making rational decisions in terms of road safety, safety of road infrastructure, crash elimination measures or reducing the consequences suffered by road users (particularly pedestrians as a result of road crashes.

  15. A perspective of PC-based probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Robinson, R.C.; Russell, K.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information has been under-utilized in the past due to the large effort required to input the PRA data and the large expense of the computers needed to run PRA codes. The microcomputer-based Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System, under development at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, have greatly enhanced the ability of managers to use PRA techniques in their decision-making. IRRAS is a tool that allows an analyst to create, modify, update, and reanalyze a plant PRA to keep the risk assessment current with the plant's configuration and operation. The SARA system is used to perform sensitivity studies on the results of a PRA. This type of analysis can be used to evaluate proposed changes to a plant or its operation. The success of these two software projects demonstrate that risk information can be made readily available to those that need it. This is the first step in the development of a true risk management capability

  16. Effect of the dietary level of cull pinto beans (Phaseolus vulgaris on ruminal fermentation, kinetics, and digestibility of hair lambs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Castillo Rangel

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The objective was to evaluate the effect of three levels of cull pinto beans (CPB; Phaseolus vulgaris on ruminal fermentation, kinetics, and nutrient digestibility in hair lambs. Six cannulated lambs averaging 56.6±3.8 kg were used and were randomly assigned to one of three treatments. Treatments were: 0.0 kg kg−1 of CPB in the supplement (control; 0.25 kg kg−1 of CPB in the supplement (CB25; and 0.40 kg kg−1 of CPB in the supplement (CB40. Dry matter intake, ruminal pH, NH3, and volatile fatty acid (VFA concentration, methane production, Kp (passage rate, MRT (mean retention time, and digestibility of dry matter, crude protein, and neutral detergent fiber were evaluated. Data were analyzed in a Latin square design, repeated in line, by MIXED procedure of SAS. Estimates used for Kp and MRT were obtained by a non-linear regression model (PROC NLIN. Dry matter intake was reduced by supplementation of CPB. No differences were found in ruminal pH or ruminal NH3. During the trial, differences were found for ruminal VFA concentration (mM, which were greater for the CB25 group. The propionate:acetate ratio was greater for the CB40 treatment. Methane production (mM/m differed among treatments, but it was the greatest for the CB40 group. Passage rate (kg kg−1/h and MRT (h were similar among treatments and the digestibility (kg kg−1 of dry matter, crude protein, and neutral detergent fiber was not different among treatments. The inclusion of 0.25 kg kg−1 of CPB in the diet of hair lambs allows for appropriate nutrient digestion without affecting Kp and MRT and increases the molar proportion of the ability of VFA to maintain acetate:propionate ratio without increasing methane production.

  17. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  18. Demonstration of risk-based approaches to nuclear plant regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Darling, S.S.; Oddo, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes generic technical support EPRI is providing to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of risk-based regulations (RBR). A risk-based regulatory approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate safety resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. This approach will reduce O ampersand M costs, and also improve nuclear plant safety. In order to enhance industry, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and public confidence in RBR, three things need to be shown: (1) manpower/resource savings are significant for both NRC and industry; (2) the process is doable in a reasonable amount of time; and (3) the process, if uniformly applied, results in demonstrably cheaper power and safer plants. In 1992, EPRI performed a qualitative study of the key RBR issues contributing to high O ampersand M costs. The results are given on Table 1. This study is being followed up by an in-depth quantitative cost/benefit study to focus technical work on producing guidelines/procedures for licensing submittals to NRC. The guidelines/procedures necessarily will be developed from successful demonstration projects such as the Fitzpatrick pilot plant study proposed by the New York Power Authority and other generic applications. This paper presents three examples: two motor operated valve projects performed by QUADREX Energy Services Corporation working with utilities in responding to NRC Generic Letter 89-10, and a third project working with Yankee Atomic Electric Company on service water systems at a plant in its service system. These demonstration projects aim to show the following: (1) the relative ease of putting together a technical case based on RBR concepts; (2) clarity in differentiating the various risk trade-offs, and in communicating overall reductions in risk with NRC; and (3) improved prioritization of NRC directives

  19. Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

    2012-04-01

    The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

  20. Risk prediction of cardiovascular death based on the QTc interval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas B; Graff, Claus; Rasmussen, Peter V

    2014-01-01

    electrocardiograms from 173 529 primary care patients aged 50-90 years were collected during 2001-11. The Framingham formula was used for heart rate-correction of the QT interval. Data on medication, comorbidity, and outcomes were retrieved from administrative registries. During a median follow-up period of 6......AIMS: Using a large, contemporary primary care population we aimed to provide absolute long-term risks of cardiovascular death (CVD) based on the QTc interval and to test whether the QTc interval is of value in risk prediction of CVD on an individual level. METHODS AND RESULTS: Digital...

  1. Alternative approaches to risk-based technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.; Liner, R.T.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1987-01-01

    Four alternative risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications are identified. These are: a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) oriented approach; a reliability goal-oriented approach; an approach based on configuration control; a data-oriented approach. Based on preliminary results, the PRA-oriented approach, which has been developed further than the other approaches, seems to offer a logical, quantitative basis for setting Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) for some plant components and systems. The most attractive feature of this approach is that it directly links the AOTs and STIs with the risk associated with the operation of the plant. This would focus the plant operator's and the regulatory agency's attention on the most risk-significant components of the plant. A series of practical issues related to the level of detail and content of the plant PRAs, requirements for the review of these PRAs, and monitoring cf the plant's performance by the regulatory agency must be resolved before the approach could be implemented. Future efforts will examine the other three approaches and their practicality before firm conclusions are drawn regarding the viability of any of these approaches

  2. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

  3. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  4. Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

    2016-10-01

    This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk-based Operation and Maintenance for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Nielsen, Jannie Jessen

    2011-01-01

    For offshore wind turbines, costs to Operation and Maintenance (OM) are substantial, and can be expected to increase when wind farms are placed at deeper water depths and in more harsh environments. Traditional strategies for OM include corrective and preventive (scheduled and condition...... statistics and costs of the different operations. The different OM strategies are described and compared in an illustrative example with focus on which types of information that are needed. Special focus is on comparison between risk-based maintenance strategies and the conventional maintenance planning...... and are often the driving mechanisms for failures / faults that need maintenance. Observations of the degree of damage can increase the reliability of predictions and decrease the costs of OM if integrated in a risk-based framework theoretically based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. The mathematical...

  6. Evaluation of Two Compressed Air Foam Systems for Culling Caged Layer Hens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric R. Benson

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of avian influenza (AI and other highly contagious poultry diseases continue to be a concern for those involved in the poultry industry. In the situation of an outbreak, emergency depopulation of the birds involved is necessary. In this project, two compressed air foam systems (CAFS were evaluated for mass emergency depopulation of layer hens in a manure belt equipped cage system. In both experiments, a randomized block design was used with multiple commercial layer hens treated with one of three randomly selected depopulation methods: CAFS, CAFS with CO2 gas, and CO2 gas. In Experiment 1, a Rowe manufactured CAFS was used, a selection of birds were instrumented, and the time to unconsciousness, brain death, altered terminal cardiac activity and motion cessation were recorded. CAFS with and without CO2 was faster to unconsciousness, however, the other parameters were not statistically significant. In Experiment 2, a custom Hale based CAFS was used to evaluate the impact of bird age, a selection of birds were instrumented, and the time to motion cessation was recorded. The difference in time to cessation of movement between pullets and spent hens using CAFS was not statistically significant. Both CAFS depopulate caged layers, however, there was no benefit to including CO2.

  7. Evaluation of Two Compressed Air Foam Systems for Culling Caged Layer Hens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Eric R; Weiher, Jaclyn A; Alphin, Robert L; Farnell, Morgan; Hougentogler, Daniel P

    2018-04-24

    Outbreaks of avian influenza (AI) and other highly contagious poultry diseases continue to be a concern for those involved in the poultry industry. In the situation of an outbreak, emergency depopulation of the birds involved is necessary. In this project, two compressed air foam systems (CAFS) were evaluated for mass emergency depopulation of layer hens in a manure belt equipped cage system. In both experiments, a randomized block design was used with multiple commercial layer hens treated with one of three randomly selected depopulation methods: CAFS, CAFS with CO₂ gas, and CO₂ gas. In Experiment 1, a Rowe manufactured CAFS was used, a selection of birds were instrumented, and the time to unconsciousness, brain death, altered terminal cardiac activity and motion cessation were recorded. CAFS with and without CO₂ was faster to unconsciousness, however, the other parameters were not statistically significant. In Experiment 2, a custom Hale based CAFS was used to evaluate the impact of bird age, a selection of birds were instrumented, and the time to motion cessation was recorded. The difference in time to cessation of movement between pullets and spent hens using CAFS was not statistically significant. Both CAFS depopulate caged layers, however, there was no benefit to including CO₂.

  8. Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsabadze, Teimuraz

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

  9. Modifying EPA radiation risk models based on BEIR VII

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pawel, D.; Puskin, J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper summarizes a 'draft White Paper' that provides details on proposed changes in EPA's methodology for estimating radiogenic cancer risks. Many of the changes are based on the contents of a recent National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report (BEIR VII), that addresses cancer and genetic risks from low doses of low-LET radiation. The draft White Paper was prepared for a meeting with the EPA's Science Advisory Board's Radiation Advisory Committee (RAC) in September for seeking advice on the application of BEIR VII and on issues relating to these modifications and expansions. After receiving the Advisory review, we plan to implement the changes by publishing the new methodology in an EPA report, which we expect to submit to the RAC for final review. The revised methodology could then be applied to update the cancer risk coefficients for over 800 radionuclides that are published in EPA's Federal Guidance Report 13. (author)

  10. Enhancing the effectiveness of IST through risk-based techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Floyd, S.D.

    1996-12-01

    Current IST requirements were developed mainly through deterministic-based methods. While this approach has resulted in an adequate level of safety and reliability for pumps and valves, insights from probabilistic safety assessments suggest a better safety focus can be achieved at lower costs. That is, some high safety impact pumps and valves are currently not tested under the IST program and should be added, while low safety impact valves could be tested at significantly greater intervals than allowed by the current IST program. The nuclear utility industry, through the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), has developed a draft guideline for applying risk-based techniques to focus testing on those pumps and valves with a high safety impact while reducing test frequencies on low safety impact pumps and valves. The guideline is being validated through an industry pilot application program that is being reviewed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NEI and the ASME maintain a dialogue on the two groups` activities related to risk-based IST. The presenter will provide an overview of the NEI guideline, discuss the methodological approach for applying risk-based technology to IST and provide the status of the industry pilot plant effort.

  11. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  12. A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.

  13. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  14. Risk-based prioritization at Hanford Nuclear Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Mosely, M.T.

    1995-11-01

    This paper describes the method used to incorporate risk-based decision making into the Hanford resource allocation process. This method, the Revised Priority Planning Grid, is used as a tool to calculate benefits and benefit-to-cost ratios for comparison of environmental cleanup activities. The tool is based on Hanford Site objectives. Benefits are determined by estimating the impact on those objectives resulting from funding specific environmental management activities. Impacts are also a function of the weights associated with the objectives. These weights in the Revised Priority Planning Grid reflect US Development of Energy management values, which were obtained through a formal value-elicitation process. With modification to the objectives and weights, the Revised Priority Planning Grid could be used in different situations. By factoring in environmental, safety, and health risk and assigning higher scores to those activities that provide the most benefit, the Revised Priority Planning Grid is a reproducible, scientific way of scoring competing activities or interests

  15. Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jeng-Hsiang

    2018-04-01

    Flat earthquake premiums are 'uniformly' set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk-based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  16. A risk-based auditing process for pharmaceutical manufacturers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargo, Susan; Dana, Bob; Rangavajhula, Vijaya; Rönninger, Stephan

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to share ideas on developing a risk-based model for the scheduling of audits (both internal and external). Audits are a key element of a manufacturer's quality system and provide an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's or the supplier/vendor's compliance status. Suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches are discussed in the article. Pharmaceutical manufacturers are required to establish and implement a quality system. The quality system is an organizational structure defining responsibilities, procedures, processes, and resources that the manufacturer has established to ensure quality throughout the manufacturing process. Audits are a component of the manufacturer's quality system and provide a systematic and an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's overall quality system and compliance status. Audits are performed at defined intervals for a specified duration. The intention of the audit process is to focus on key areas within the quality system and may not cover all relevant areas during each audit. In this article, the authors provide suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches to aid pharmaceutical manufacturers in identifying the key focus areas for an audit.

  17. Risk-based fault detection using Self-Organizing Map

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Garaniya, Vikram

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of modern systems is increasing rapidly and the dominating relationships among system variables have become highly non-linear. This results in difficulty in the identification of a system's operating states. In turn, this difficulty affects the sensitivity of fault detection and imposes a challenge on ensuring the safety of operation. In recent years, Self-Organizing Maps has gained popularity in system monitoring as a robust non-linear dimensionality reduction tool. Self-Organizing Map is able to capture non-linear variations of the system. Therefore, it is sensitive to the change of a system's states leading to early detection of fault. In this paper, a new approach based on Self-Organizing Map is proposed to detect and assess the risk of fault. In addition, probabilistic analysis is applied to characterize the risk of fault into different levels according to the hazard potential to enable a refined monitoring of the system. The proposed approach is applied on two experimental systems. The results from both systems have shown high sensitivity of the proposed approach in detecting and identifying the root cause of faults. The refined monitoring facilitates the determination of the risk of fault and early deployment of remedial actions and safety measures to minimize the potential impact of fault. - Highlights: • A new approach based on Self-Organizing Map is proposed to detect faults. • Integration of fault detection with risk assessment methodology. • Fault risk characterization into different levels to enable focused system monitoring

  18. Developing Hydrogeological Site Characterization Strategies based on Human Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to provide better sustainable groundwater quality management and minimize the impact of contamination in humans, improved understanding and quantification of the interaction between hydrogeological models, geological site information and human health are needed. Considering the joint influence of these components in the overall human health risk assessment and the corresponding sources of uncertainty aid decision makers to better allocate resources in data acquisition campaigns. This is important to (1) achieve remediation goals in a cost-effective manner, (2) protect human health and (3) keep water supplies clean in order to keep with quality standards. Such task is challenging since a full characterization of the subsurface is unfeasible due to financial and technological constraints. In addition, human exposure and physiological response to contamination are subject to uncertainty and variability. Normally, sampling strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on the overall system uncertainty. Therefore, quantifying the impact from each of these components (hydrogeological, behavioral and physiological) in final human health risk prediction can provide guidance for decision makers to best allocate resources towards minimal prediction uncertainty. In this presentation, a multi-component human health risk-based framework is presented which allows decision makers to set priorities through an information entropy-based visualization tool. Results highlight the role of characteristic length-scales characterizing flow and transport in determining data needs within an integrated hydrogeological-health framework. Conditions where uncertainty reduction in human health risk predictions may benefit from better understanding of the health component, as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization, are also discussed. Finally, results illustrate how different dose

  19. Beyond Castration and Culling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palmer, Clare; Pedersen, Hanne Gervi; Sandøe, Peter

    2018-01-01

    explored include animals’ welfare, the possible violation of animals’ rights, including rights to life, reproduction and bodily integrity; and potential concerns about loss of wildness. We compare ethical concerns about pharmaceutical fertility control with alternative strategies for managing animals......This paper explores ethical issues raised by the application of non-surgical, pharmaceutical fertility control to manage reproductive behaviors in domesticated and wild animal species. We focus on methods that interfere with the effects of GnRH, making animals infertile and significantly...... alternative choices, including doing nothing, would be ethically preferable. This suggests that in ethical terms a case-by-case approach should be taken to the use of pharmaceutical fertility control in animals....

  20. Team based risk assessment in the South African mining industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, J.; Ashworth, G.; Webger, S.; Protheroe, B. [CSIR, Auckland Park (South Africa). MineRisk Africa Division

    1996-12-31

    Improved health and safety for the large mining workforce in South Africa is a priority. Risk Assessments will be mandatory following the promulgation of the new health and safety act, due out in mid 1996. There is also a strong demand for employee organizations for participation in regulating the work process, particularly in the aspects of health and safety. The concept of system safety is that safe production is achieved through four ingredients, being, competent and trained personnel working according to appropriate standard operating practices using fit-for-purpose equipment in a well-controlled environment. A deficiency in any one of these areas will lead to an increased chance of operating problems and consequently accidents. The Mine Risk processes for risk assessment and management provide a mechanism for adopting this concept in practical mining operations; they provide a framework for identifying the root cause of safety problems as a basis for defining changes which will contribute significantly towards improving safety. The Mine Risk processes are applied practively and systematically to identify hazards and evaluate the magnitude of the associated risk in a defined aspect of the mining operation using a participative team based approach. The team, whose membership consists of highly experienced personnel drawn from all relevant departments and from positions ranging from manager to operator, then determines practical controls to reduce priority risks to acceptable levels. Team building is a natural product of this process, and should lead to higher productivity levels which is also a cause for concern. By using this process, a number of objectives of all the stakeholders in the South African Mining industry are addressed. 3 tabs.

  1. Efficacy of antibiotic treatment and test-based culling strategies for eradicating brucellosis in commercial swine herds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieste-Pérez, L.; Frankena, K.; Blasco, J.M.; Muñoz, P.M.; Jong, de M.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    Swine brucellosis caused by Brucella suis biovar 2 is an emerging disease in continental Europe. Without effective vaccines being available, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) recommends the full depopulation of infected herds as the only strategy to eradicate B. suis outbreaks. Using data

  2. Efficacy of antibiotic treatment and test-based culling strategies for eradicating brucellosis in commercial swine herds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieste-Pérez, L.; Frankena, K.; Blasco, J. M.; Muñoz, P. M.; De Jong, M. C M

    2016-01-01

    Swine brucellosis caused by Brucella suis biovar 2 is an emerging disease in continental Europe. Without effective vaccines being available, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) recommends the full depopulation of infected herds as the only strategy to eradicate B. suis outbreaks. Using data

  3. Large-scale invasion of western Atlantic mesophotic reefs by lionfish potentially undermines culling-based management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andradi-Brown, D.A.; Vermeij, M.J.A.; Slattery, M.; Lesser, M.; Bejarano, I.; Appeldoorn, R.; Goodbody-Gringley, G.; Chequer, A.D.; Pitt, J.M.; Eddy, C.; Smith, S.R.; Brokovich, E.; Pinheiro, H.T.; Jessup, M.E.; Shepherd, B.; Rocha, L.A.; Curtis-Quick, J.; Eyal, G.; Noyes, T.J.; Rogers, A.D.; Exton, D.A.

    The detrimental effects of invasive lionfishes (Pterois volitans and Pterois miles) on western Atlantic shallow reefs are well documented, including declines in coral cover and native fish populations, with disproportionate predation on critically endangered reef fish in some locations. Yet despite

  4. Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

    2011-11-01

    Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Environmental restoration risk-based prioritization work package planning and risk ranking methodology. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dail, J.L.; Nanstad, L.D.; White, R.K.

    1995-06-01

    This document presents the risk-based prioritization methodology developed to evaluate and rank Environmental Restoration (ER) work packages at the five US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Field Office (DOE-ORO) sites [i.e., Oak Ridge K-25 Site (K-25), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12)], the ER Off-site Program, and Central ER. This prioritization methodology was developed to support the increased rigor and formality of work planning in the overall conduct of operations within the DOE-ORO ER Program. Prioritization is conducted as an integral component of the fiscal ER funding cycle to establish program budget priorities. The purpose of the ER risk-based prioritization methodology is to provide ER management with the tools and processes needed to evaluate, compare, prioritize, and justify fiscal budget decisions for a diverse set of remedial action, decontamination and decommissioning, and waste management activities. The methodology provides the ER Program with a framework for (1) organizing information about identified DOE-ORO environmental problems, (2) generating qualitative assessments of the long- and short-term risks posed by DOE-ORO environmental problems, and (3) evaluating the benefits associated with candidate work packages designed to reduce those risks. Prioritization is conducted to rank ER work packages on the basis of the overall value (e.g., risk reduction, stakeholder confidence) each package provides to the ER Program. Application of the methodology yields individual work package ''scores'' and rankings that are used to develop fiscal budget requests. This document presents the technical basis for the decision support tools and process

  6. Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer variation range assessment based on various radon risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Jing

    2017-01-01

    To address public concerns regarding radon risk and variations in risk estimates based on various risk models available in the literature, lifetime lung cancer risks were calculated with five well-known risk models using more recent Canadian vital statistics (5-year averages from 2008 to 2012). Variations in population risk estimation among various models were assessed. The results showed that the Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer can vary from 5.0 to 17% for men and 5.1 to 18% for women based on different radon risk models. Averaged over the estimates from various risk models with better radon dosimetry, 13% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian males and 14% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian females were attributable to long-term indoor radon exposure. (authors)

  7. Evaluating Risk Perception based on Gender Differences for Mountaineering Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanto Novie

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In average 26 death events in mountaineering per year for the time span from 2003 to 2012 is reported. The number of women dying during the mountaineering is significantly smaller than males (3.5 deaths male for one female death. This study aims to analyze the differences of risk perception based on gender and provide recommendations as education basic to prevent accidents in mountaineering. This study utilizes the Kruskal-Wallis test and the Delphi Method. A total of 200 mountaineer respondents (100 males and 100 females participated in this study. The independent variable in this study was gender. The dependent variable was risk perception including perception toward the serious accident, perception toward the probability of accident event as well as anxiety level and perception of efficacy and self-efficacy. The study result showed that the risk perception of women is higher than men with significant difference (p-value = 0.019. The recommendations from Delphi method result are by developing a positive mental attitude, showing about the risks that exist in nature, implementing Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT to raise awareness of the safety of ownself, following the climbing or mountaineer school, and using instructors to give lessons about safety in outdoor activities.

  8. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Safe, S.H. [Texas A& M Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Randerath, K.; Randerath, E. [College Station and Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX (United States)

    1994-12-31

    To compare the standard chemical-based risk assessment with in vitro genotoxicity assays, two complex environmental mixtures from a wood preserving site were analyzed in the Salmonella/microsome and E. coli prophage induction assays. Using GC/MS, sample 003 was found to contain relatively low levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PNAs) and elevated levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), while sample 005 had higher levels of PNAs and relatively low levels of PCDDs. The complex mixtures were sequentially extracted with methylene chloride and methanol for analysis in Salmonella, or extracted with 1:1 hexane: acetone mixture for analysis in the prophage induction assay. At a dose of 1.0 mg/plate in Salmonella strain TA98 with metabolic activation, the methanol extract of sample 003 induced 197 net revertants, while sample 005 induced 436 net revertants. In the prophage induction assay, with activation, the hexane:acetone extract of sample 003 induced a fold increase that was slightly lower than that observed with sample 005. The estimated incremental carcinogenic risk for dermal adsorption and ingestion was 1.5E-3 for sample 003, while for sample 005 the estimated risk was 1.5E-2. Thus, the sample which induced the maximum response in both bioassays also had the highest estimated cancer risk. However, the frequency of PNA-DNA adducts in both skin and liver tissues was appreciably higher with sample 005 than with sample 003.

  9. Evaluating Risk Perception based on Gender Differences for Mountaineering Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susanto, Novie; Susatyo, Nugroho W. P.; Rizkiyah, Ega

    2018-02-01

    In average 26 death events in mountaineering per year for the time span from 2003 to 2012 is reported. The number of women dying during the mountaineering is significantly smaller than males (3.5 deaths male for one female death). This study aims to analyze the differences of risk perception based on gender and provide recommendations as education basic to prevent accidents in mountaineering. This study utilizes the Kruskal-Wallis test and the Delphi Method. A total of 200 mountaineer respondents (100 males and 100 females) participated in this study. The independent variable in this study was gender. The dependent variable was risk perception including perception toward the serious accident, perception toward the probability of accident event as well as anxiety level and perception of efficacy and self-efficacy. The study result showed that the risk perception of women is higher than men with significant difference (p-value = 0.019). The recommendations from Delphi method result are by developing a positive mental attitude, showing about the risks that exist in nature, implementing Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT) to raise awareness of the safety of ownself, following the climbing or mountaineer school, and using instructors to give lessons about safety in outdoor activities.

  10. Forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Guo, Qizhong; Chen, Yaqian; Lu, Mengxiong; Tinoco, Luis

    2014-02-01

    In order to reduce the losses by water pollution, forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory was studied. This model is built upon risk indexes in complex systems, proceeding from the whole structure and its components. In this study, the principal components analysis is used to screen out index systems. Hydrological model is employed to simulate index value according to the prediction principle. Bayes theory is adopted to obtain posterior distribution by prior distribution with sample information which can make samples' features preferably reflect and represent the totals to some extent. Forewarning level is judged on the maximum probability rule, and then local conditions for proposing management strategies that will have the effect of transforming heavy warnings to a lesser degree. This study takes Taihu Basin as an example. After forewarning model application and vertification for water pollution risk from 2000 to 2009 between the actual and simulated data, forewarning level in 2010 is given as a severe warning, which is well coincide with logistic curve. It is shown that the model is rigorous in theory with flexible method, reasonable in result with simple structure, and it has strong logic superiority and regional adaptability, providing a new way for warning water pollution risk.

  11. Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Huynh, Loc C.; Manning, Ted

    2014-01-01

    A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

  12. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joung-Hun Lee

    Full Text Available By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

  13. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joung-Hun; Jusup, Marko; Podobnik, Boris; Iwasa, Yoh

    2015-01-01

    By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

  14. Toward a Safety Risk-Based Classification of Unmanned Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2016-01-01

    There is a trend of growing interest and demand for greater access of unmanned aircraft (UA) to the National Airspace System (NAS) as the ongoing development of UA technology has created the potential for significant economic benefits. However, the lack of a comprehensive and efficient UA regulatory framework has constrained the number and kinds of UA operations that can be performed. This report presents initial results of a study aimed at defining a safety-risk-based UA classification as a plausible basis for a regulatory framework for UA operating in the NAS. Much of the study up to this point has been at a conceptual high level. The report includes a survey of contextual topics, analysis of safety risk considerations, and initial recommendations for a risk-based approach to safe UA operations in the NAS. The next phase of the study will develop and leverage deeper clarity and insight into practical engineering and regulatory considerations for ensuring that UA operations have an acceptable level of safety.

  15. Some computer simulations based on the linear relative risk model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1991-10-01

    This report presents the results of computer simulations designed to evaluate and compare the performance of the likelihood ratio statistic and the score statistic for making inferences about the linear relative risk mode. The work was motivated by data on workers exposed to low doses of radiation, and the report includes illustration of several procedures for obtaining confidence limits for the excess relative risk coefficient based on data from three studies of nuclear workers. The computer simulations indicate that with small sample sizes and highly skewed dose distributions, asymptotic approximations to the score statistic or to the likelihood ratio statistic may not be adequate. For testing the null hypothesis that the excess relative risk is equal to zero, the asymptotic approximation to the likelihood ratio statistic was adequate, but use of the asymptotic approximation to the score statistic rejected the null hypothesis too often. Frequently the likelihood was maximized at the lower constraint, and when this occurred, the asymptotic approximations for the likelihood ratio and score statistics did not perform well in obtaining upper confidence limits. The score statistic and likelihood ratio statistics were found to perform comparably in terms of power and width of the confidence limits. It is recommended that with modest sample sizes, confidence limits be obtained using computer simulations based on the score statistic. Although nuclear worker studies are emphasized in this report, its results are relevant for any study investigating linear dose-response functions with highly skewed exposure distributions. 22 refs., 14 tabs

  16. Eielson Air Force Base OU-1 baseline risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarvis, M.T.; Jarvis, T.T.; Van Houten, N.C.; Lewis, R.E.

    1993-09-01

    This Baseline Risk Assessment report is the second volume in a set of three volumes for operable Unit 1 (OU-1). The companion documents contain the Remedial Investigation and the Feasibility Study. Operable Unit 1 (OU-1) is one of several groups of hazardous waste sites located at Eielson Air Force Base (AFB) near Fairbanks, Alaska. The operable units at Eielson are typically characterized by petroleum, oil, lubricant/solvent contamination, and by the presence of organics floating at the water table. In 1989 and 1990, firms under contract to the Air Force conducted field studies to gather information about the extent of chemical contamination in soil, groundwater, and soil air pore space (soil gas) at the site. This report documents the results of a baseline risk assessment, which uses the 1989 and 1991 site characterization database to quantify the potential human health risk associated with past Base industrial activities in the vicinity of OU-1. Background data collected in 1992 were also used in the preparation of this report

  17. Market Mechanism Design for Renewable Energy based on Risk Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wu; Bo, Wang; Jichun, Liu; Wenjiao, Zai; Pingliang, Zeng; Haobo, Shi

    2018-02-01

    Generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is an efficient market means for transforming supply structure of electric power into sustainable development pattern. But the trading is hampered by the output fluctuations of renewable energy and the cost differences between renewable energy and thermal power at present. In this paper, the external environmental cost (EEC) is defined and the EEC is introduced into the generation cost. At same time, the incentive functions of renewable energy and low-emission thermal power are designed, which are decreasing functions of EEC. On these bases, for the market risks caused by the random variability of EEC, the decision-making model of generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is constructed according to the risk theory. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by simulation results.

  18. LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jing

    2017-04-01

    This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.

  19. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through ris based insurance premiums: trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  20. Risk, individual differences, and environment: an Agent-Based Modeling approach to sexual risk-taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagoski, Emily; Janssen, Erick; Lohrmann, David; Nichols, Eric

    2012-08-01

    Risky sexual behaviors, including the decision to have unprotected sex, result from interactions between individuals and their environment. The current study explored the use of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)-a methodological approach in which computer-generated artificial societies simulate human sexual networks-to assess the influence of heterogeneity of sexual motivation on the risk of contracting HIV. The models successfully simulated some characteristics of human sexual systems, such as the relationship between individual differences in sexual motivation (sexual excitation and inhibition) and sexual risk, but failed to reproduce the scale-free distribution of number of partners observed in the real world. ABM has the potential to inform intervention strategies that target the interaction between an individual and his or her social environment.

  1. A risk-based approach to prioritize underground storage tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chidambariah, V.; Travis, C.C.; Trabalka, J.R.; Thomas, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a risk-based approach for rapid prioritization of low level liquid radioactive waste underground storage tanks (LLLW USTs) for possible interim corrective measures and/or ultimate closure. The ranking of LLLW USTs is needed to ensure that tanks with the greatest potential for adverse impact on the environment and human health receive top priority for further evaluation and remediation. Wastes from the LLLW USTs at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) were pumped out at the time the tanks were removed from service. The residual liquids and sludge contain a mixture of radionuclides and chemicals. Contaminants of concern that were identified in the liquid phase of the inactive LLLW USTs include, the radionuclides, 9O Sr, 137 Cs and 233 U and the chemicals, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethene, tetrachloroethene, methyl ethyl ketone, mercury, lead and chromium. The risk-based approach for prioritization of the LLLW USTs is based upon three major criteria: (1) leaking characteristics of the tank; (2) location of the tanks; and (3) toxic potential of the tank contents

  2. The Risks and Rewards of Value-Based Reimbursement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henkel, Robert J; Maryland, Patricia A

    2015-01-01

    As healthcare systems across the country shift to value-based care, they face an enormous challenge. Not only must they reimagine how they identify, engage, and manage the care of patients, they also need to determine new ways of engaging and aligning physicians and other caregivers in creating better-coordinated care across the continuum. This article explores how healthcare systems making the transition from volume to value can maximize their reward while managing their risk. As the largest not-for-profit healthcare system in the United States and the largest Catholic healthcare system in the world, Ascension is committed to making its own transition, marked by broad-based innovation. We call this goal the Quadruple Aim: improving health outcomes, patient experiences, and provider experiences while lowering the overall cost of care. Healthcare systems and providers have many value-based models to choose from, including pay for performance (P4P), shared savings, bundled payments, shared risk, global capitation, and provider-sponsored health plans. Analysis of these options should include an evaluation of market readiness (i.e., the ability of a health system to align with the needs of employers or commercial insurers in a given market). Healthcare systems also must be prepared to invest in resources that facilitate effective transitions and continuity of care--for example, care management. In addition, they need to recognize that as they focus on wellness, inpatient volumes will decline, requiring cost-structure adjustments and added ancillary services to compensate for this decline. Some healthcare systems are even exploring the possibility of becoming their own payer, taking on more risk and responsibility for the health of patients and populations.

  3. German data for risk based fire safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, M.; Berg, H.P.

    1998-01-01

    Different types of data are necessary to perform risk based fire safety assessments and, in particular, to quantify the fire event tree considering the plant specific conditions. Data on fire barriers, fire detection and extinguishing, including also data on secondary effects of a fire, have to be used for quantifying the potential hazard and damage states. The existing German database on fires in nuclear power plants (NPPs) is very small. Therefore, in general generic data, mainly from US databases, are used for risk based safety assessments. Due to several differences in the plant design and conditions generic data can only be used as conservative assumptions. World-wide existing generic data on personnel failures in case of fire fighting have only to be adapted to the plant specific conditions inside the NPP to be investigated. In contrary, unavailabilities of fire barrier elements may differ strongly depending on different standards, testing requirements, etc. In addition, the operational behaviour of active fire protection equipment may vary depending on type and manufacturer. The necessity for more detailed and for additional plant specific data was the main reason for generating updated German data on the operational behaviour of active fire protection equipment/features in NPPs to support risk based fire safety analyses being recommended to be carried out as an additional tool to deterministic fire hazard analyses in the frame of safety reviews. The results of these investigations revealed a broader and more realistic database for technical reliability of active fire protection means, but improvements as well as collection of further data are still necessary. (author)

  4. Risk Based Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used to make optimal decisions for repairs of offshore wind turbines. The Bayesian network is an efficient tool for updating a deterioration model whenever new information becomes available from inspections/monitoring. The optimal decision is found...... such that the preventive maintenance effort is balanced against the costs to corrective maintenance including indirect costs to reduced production. The basis for the optimization is the risk based Bayesian decision theory. The method is demonstrated through an application example....

  5. Risk-based and maintenance systems for steam turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujiyama, K.; Nagai, S.; Akikuni, Y.; Fujiwara, T.; Furuya, K.; Matsumoto, S.; Takagi, K.; Kawabata, T.

    2003-01-01

    The risk-based maintenance (RBM) system has been developed for steam turbine plants coupled with the quick inspection systems. The RBM system utilizes the field failure and inspection database accumulated over 30 years. The failure modes are determined for each component of steam turbines and the failure scenarios are described as event trees. The probability of failure is expressed in the form of unreliability functions of operation hours or start-up cycles through the cumulative hazard function method. The posterior unreliability is derived from the field data analysis according to the inspection information. Quick inspection can be conducted using air-cooled borescope and heat resistant ultrasonic sensors even if the turbine is not cooled down sufficiently. Another inspection information comes from degradation and damage measurement. The probabilistic life assessment using structural analysis and statistical material properties, the latter is estimated from hardness measurement, replica observation and embrittlement measurement. The risk function is calculated as the sum product of unreliability functions and expected monetary loss as the consequence of failure along event trees. The optimum maintenance plan is determined among simulated scenarios described through component breakdown trees, life cycle event trees and risk functions. Those methods are effective for total condition assessment and economical maintenance for operating plants. (orig.)

  6. Risk-based inspection and maintenance systems for steam turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujiyama, Kazunari; Nagai, Satoshi; Akikuni, Yasunari; Fujiwara, Toshihiro; Furuya, Kenichiro; Matsumoto, Shigeru; Takagi, Kentaro; Kawabata, Taro

    2004-01-01

    The risk-based maintenance (RBM) system has been developed for steam turbine plants coupled with the quick inspection systems. The RBM system utilizes the field failure and inspection database accumulated over 30 years. The failure modes are determined for each component of steam turbines and the failure scenarios are described as event trees. The probability of failure is expressed in the form of unreliability functions of operation hours or start-up cycles through the cumulative hazard function method. The posterior unreliability is derived from the field data analysis according to the inspection information. Quick inspection can be conducted using air-cooled borescope and heat resistant ultrasonic sensors even if the turbine is not cooled down sufficiently. Another inspection information comes from degradation and damage measurement. The probabilistic life assessment using structural analysis and statistical material properties, the latter is estimated from hardness measurement, replica observation and embrittlement measurement. The risk function is calculated as the sum product of unreliability functions and expected monetary loss as the consequence of failure along event trees. The optimum maintenance plan is determined among simulated scenarios described through component breakdown trees, life cycle event trees and risk functions. Those methods are effective for total condition assessment and economical maintenance for operating plants

  7. [Dyslipidaemia and vascular risk. A new evidence based review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallarés-Carratalá, V; Pascual-Fuster, V; Godoy-Rocatí, D

    2015-01-01

    Dyslipidaemia is one of the major risk factors for ischaemic heart disease, the leading cause of death worldwide. Early detection and therapeutic intervention are key elements in the adequate prevention of cardiovascular disease. It is essential to have knowledge of the therapeutic arsenal available for their appropriate use in each of the clinical situations that might be presented in our patients. In the past 3 years, there has been a proliferation of multiple guidelines for the clinical management of patients with dyslipidaemia, with apparent contradictory messages regarding the achievement of the control objectives, which are confusing clinicians. This review aims to provide an updated overview of the situation as regards dyslipidaemia, based on the positioning of both European and American guidelines, through different risk situations and ending with the concept of atherogenic dyslipidaemia as a recognized cardiovascular risk factor. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. Cernavoda NPP risk - Based test and maintenance planning - Methodology development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, G.; Popa, P.; Petrescu, A.; Naum, M.; Gutu, M.

    1997-01-01

    The Cernavoda Power Plant starts the commercial operation in November 1996. During operation of the nuclear power plant, several mandatory tests and maintenance are performed on stand-by safety system components to ensure their availability in case of accident. The basic purpose of such activities is the early detection of any failure and degradation, and timely correction of deteriorations. Because of the large number of such activities, emphasis on plant safety and allocation of resources becomes difficult. The probabilistic model and methodology can be effectively used to obtain the risk significance of these activities so that the resources are directed to the most important areas. The proposed Research Contract activity is strongly connected with other safety related areas under development. Since, the Cernavoda Probabilistic Safety Evaluation Level 1 PSA Study (CPSE) was performed and now the study is revised taking into account the as-built information, it is recommended to implement into the model the necessary modeling features to support further PSA application, especially related to Test and Maintenance optimization. Methods need to be developed in order to apply the PSA model including risk information together with other needed information for Test and Maintenance optimization. Also, in parallel with the CPSE study updating, the software interface for the PSA model is under development (Risk Monitor Software class), methods and models needing to be developed for the purpose of using it for qualified monitoring of Test and Maintenance Strategy efficiency. Similar, the Data Collection System need to be appropriate for the purpose of an ongoing implementation of a risk - based Test and Maintenance Strategy. (author). 4 refs, 1 fig

  9. An Evidence Base for Human Spaceflight Risks in Wikipedia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundrot, Craig; Steil, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Pellis, Neal

    2013-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is focused on understanding and mitigating thirty two risks to crew health and performance in exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. The HRP has developed an evidence report for each of the risks. Most evidence reports are a brief review article describing the evidence related to a specified risk, written at a level appropriate for the scientifically educated, non-specialist reader. Each evidence report captured the current state of knowledge from both research and operations. Two limitations of the evidence reports have become apparent: 1) they are updated infrequently and 2) they do not take full advantage of the expertise available in other space agencies and in related fields of terrestrial research. Therefore, the HRP is experimenting with the use of Wikipedia articles as a repository for evidence. Wikipedia's accessibility to the international space flight community and researchers in related terrestrial fields creates the opportunity to generate a more timely and comprehensive evidence base. Initial Wikipedia articles were populated for seven risks using a subset of the information in the HRP-approved evidence reports: Fatigue and Sleep Loss, Treating An Ill or Injured Crew Member, Radiation Carcinogenesis, Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure, Renal Stone Formation, Team Cohesion, and Intervertebral Disc Damage. Since the initial articles were created, there have been additions to these Wikipedia articles, including content from sources outside the HRP, and editorial changes to the pages. We will report on the nature of the contributions made after the initial articles were created, the comprehensiveness of the resulting Wikipedia articles, and the effort required to maintain quality control of the content. The Wikipedia approach will also be compared to wiki efforts that exert more traditional editorial control of content prior to posting.

  10. Weather based risks and insurances for agricultural production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as frost, drought, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The principle of return periods or frequencies of natural hazards is adopted in many countries as the basis of eligibility for the compensation of associated losses. For adequate risk management and eligibility, hazard maps for events with a 20-year return period are often used. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar therefore requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event in the farming calendar. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage. Subsequent examination of the frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and soil moisture stress in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages allows for risk profiles to be confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims. The methodology is demonstrated for arable food crops, bio-energy crops and fruit. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. Though average yields have risen continuously due to technological advances, there is no evidence that relative tolerance to adverse weather events has improved. The research is funded by the Belgian Science Policy Organisation (Belspo) under contract nr SD/RI/03A.

  11. State-of-the-art risk-based approach to spill contingency planning and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt Etkin, Dagmar; Reilly, Timothy; French McCay, Deborah

    2011-01-01

    The paper proposes incorporating a comprehensive examination of spill risk into risk management and contingency planning, and applying state-of-the-art modeling tools to evaluate various alternatives for appropriate spill response measures and optimize protective responses. The approach allows spill contingency planners and decision-makers to determine the types of spill scenarios that may occur in a particular location or from a particular source and calculate the probability distribution of the various scenarios. The spill probability information is useful in assessing and putting into perspective the various costs options for spill control systems that will be recommended ultimately. Using advanced modeling tools helps in estimating the potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of each spill scenario based on location-specific factors over a range of stochastic possibilities, simulating spill scenarios and determining optimal responses and protection strategies. The benefits and costs of various response alternatives and variations in response time can be calculated and modeling tools for training and risk allocation/transfer purposes used.

  12. Risk-based configuration control: Application of PRA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations form a risk perspective. The configurations of particular interest involve components which are down during power operation. Controlling plant configurations from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser control in areas unimportant to risk

  13. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

    For offshore wind turbines, maintenance costs are substantial due to a large number of component failures. In addition to the repair costs, equipment costs and lost production costs are large due to limited accessibility to the turbines. In order to reduce the costs, preventive methods can be used......, but presently maintenance is not planned using advanced methods taking all available information into account in a consistent manner. Maintenance decisions can be made based on risk-based methods, where the total expected life cycle costs are minimized. Methods have been developed for assessing the corrective...... maintenance costs, and many studies have also been published for preventive maintenance. However, an important part is the modeling of the relationship between maintenance and reliability, which is typically not modeled in a consistent way. Therefore, the methods cannot be used directly for optimal...

  14. Optimal Risk-Based Inspection Planning for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangel-Ramirez, Jose G.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    , inspection and maintenance activities are developed. This paper considers aspects of inspection and maintenance planning of fatigue prone details in jacket and tripod types of wind turbine support structures. Based oil risk-based inspection planning methods used for oil & gas installations, a framework......Wind turbines for electricity production have increased significantly the last years both in production capability and size. This development is expected to continue also in the coining years. The Support structure for offshore wind turbines is typically a steel structure consisting of a tower...... for optimal inspection and maintenance planning of offshore wind turbines is presented. Special aspects for offshore wind turbines are considered: usually the wind loading are dominating the wave loading, wake effects in wind farms are important and the reliability level is typically significantly lower than...

  15. 12 CFR 955.6 - Risk-based capital requirement for acquired member assets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... losses as support for the credit risk of all AMA estimated by the Bank to represent a credit risk that is...) Recalculation of credit enhancement. For risk-based capital purposes, each Bank shall recalculate the estimated... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement for acquired...

  16. A risk-based model for maintenance decision support of civil structures using RAMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Viana Da Rocha, T. C.; Stipanovic, I.; Hartmann, A.; Bakker, J.

    2017-01-01

    As a cornerstone of transportation asset management, risk-based approaches have been used to support maintenance decisions of civil structures. However, ambiguous and subjective risk criteria and inconsistency on the use of risk-based approaches can lead to a fuzzy understanding of the risks

  17. Familial risk of epilepsy: a population-based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peljto, Anna L.; Barker-Cummings, Christie; Vasoli, Vincent M.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Hauser, W. Allen; Buchhalter, Jeffrey R.

    2014-01-01

    Almost all previous studies of familial risk of epilepsy have had potentially serious methodological limitations. Our goal was to address these limitations and provide more rigorous estimates of familial risk in a population-based study. We used the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify all 660 Rochester, Minnesota residents born in 1920 or later with incidence of epilepsy from 1935–94 (probands) and their 2439 first-degree relatives who resided in Olmsted County. We assessed incidence of epilepsy in relatives by comprehensive review of the relatives’ medical records, and estimated age-specific cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios for epilepsy in relatives compared with the general population, according to proband and relative characteristics. Among relatives of all probands, cumulative incidence of epilepsy to age 40 was 4.7%, and risk was increased 3.3-fold (95% confidence interval 2.75–5.99) compared with population incidence. Risk was increased to the greatest extent in relatives of probands with idiopathic generalized epilepsies (standardized incidence ratio 6.0) and epilepsies associated with intellectual or motor disability presumed present from birth, which we denoted ‘prenatal/developmental cause’ (standardized incidence ratio 4.3). Among relatives of probands with epilepsy without identified cause (including epilepsies classified as ‘idiopathic’ or ‘unknown cause’), risk was significantly increased for epilepsy of prenatal/developmental cause (standardized incidence ratio 4.1). Similarly, among relatives of probands with prenatal/developmental cause, risk was significantly increased for epilepsies without identified cause (standardized incidence ratio 3.8). In relatives of probands with generalized epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 8.3 (95% confidence interval 2.93–15.31) for generalized epilepsy and 2.5 (95% confidence interval 0.92–4.00) for focal epilepsy. In relatives of

  18. Weather based risks and insurances for crop production in Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2014-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as late frosts, droughts, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The risk of soil moisture deficit increases towards harvesting, such that drought stress occurs in spring and summer. Conversely, waterlogging occurs mostly during early spring and autumn. Risks of temperature stress appear during winter and spring for chilling and during summer for heat. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, the regional crop model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) enabled to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims for different crops. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage as demonstrated for cropping systems in Belgium. Extreme weather events have already precipitated contraction of insurance coverage in some markets (e.g. hail insurance), and the process can be expected to continue if the losses or damages from such events increase in the future. Climate

  19. WORKSHOP ON APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS TO BIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biologically-based pharmacokinetic models are being increasingly used in the risk assessment of environmental chemicals. These models are based on biological, mathematical, statistical and engineering principles. Their potential uses in risk assessment include extrapolation betwe...

  20. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

  1. Methyldibromo glutaronitrile: clinical experience and exposure-based risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zachariae, Claus; Rastogi, Suresh; Devantier, Charlotte; Menné, Torkil; Johansen, Jeanne Duus

    2003-03-01

    In the year 2000, the level of methyldibromo glutaronitrile (MDGN) allergy in dermatology clinics in Europe exceeded the level of allergies to all other preservatives, with a prevalence of 3.5%. In the present study, cases of primary sensitization and elicitation to MDGN due to cosmetic products were collected over an 8-month period at the Department of Dermatology, Gentofte University Hospital. The aim was to identify the products related to hand eczema, assess exposure to MDGN in these products and relate the findings to results from a newly developed updated risk assessment model for contact allergy. Out of 24 patients with a positive patch test to MDGN, 17 patients with hand eczema were identified. In 11 of these patients, cosmetic products used in relation to the onset of the disease were shown to contain MDGN (65%). In 8 of these 11 cases, primary sensitization was probable, 5 due to hand/body lotions and 3 due to lotions and/or liquid hand soap. Chemical analysis of 12 products showed that lotions contained 149-390 ppm of MDGN, liquid hand soap 144-399 ppm, a rinsing cream 293 ppm and shampoos 78-79 ppm. The shampoo exposure was not of certain relevance to the eczema. Applying the newly developed updated risk assessment model showed that the concentrations of MDGN in lotions of 149-390 ppm exceeded the calculated maximum acceptable exposure level for MDGN, which would be expected to lead to sensitization in consumers using such products, as seen in the current study. The present cases and updated exposure-based risk assessment process add to the evidence and need for re-defining safe-use concentrations of MDGN in cosmetic products.

  2. 12 CFR 652.100 - Audit of the risk-based capital stress test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Audit of the risk-based capital stress test... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.100 Audit of the risk-based capital stress test. You must have a qualified, independent external auditor review...

  3. 76 FR 13902 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-15

    ... TRADE COMMISSION 16 CFR Parts 640 and 698 RIN R411009 Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing... respective risk-based pricing rules to require disclosure of credit scores and information relating to credit scores in risk-based pricing notices if a credit score of the consumer is used in setting the material...

  4. 76 FR 35138 - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Farmer Mac Risk-Based...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-16

    ... Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Farmer Mac Risk-Based Capital Stress Test, Version 5.0 AGENCY: Farm Credit... credit rating agency) in regulations addressing the Risk-Based Capital Stress Test (RBCST or stress test...) (repealing and replacing Pub. L. 110-234). B. Risk-Based Capital and Credit Ratings Under our rules, Farmer...

  5. Risk-Based Fire Safety Experiment Definition for Manned Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostolakis, G. E.; Ho, V. S.; Marcus, E.; Perry, A. T.; Thompson, S. L.

    1989-01-01

    Risk methodology is used to define experiments to be conducted in space which will help to construct and test the models required for accident sequence identification. The development of accident scenarios is based on the realization that whether damage occurs depends on the time competition of two processes: the ignition and creation of an adverse environment, and the detection and suppression activities. If the fire grows and causes damage faster than it is detected and suppressed, then an accident occurred. The proposed integrated experiments will provide information on individual models that apply to each of the above processes, as well as previously unidentified interactions and processes, if any. Initially, models that are used in terrestrial fire risk assessments are considered. These include heat and smoke release models, detection and suppression models, as well as damage models. In cases where the absence of gravity substantially invalidates a model, alternate models will be developed. Models that depend on buoyancy effects, such as the multizone compartment fire models, are included in these cases. The experiments will be performed in a variety of geometries simulating habitable areas, racks, and other spaces. These simulations will necessitate theoretical studies of scaling effects. Sensitivity studies will also be carried out including the effects of varying oxygen concentrations, pressures, fuel orientation and geometry, and air flow rates. The experimental apparatus described herein includes three major modules: the combustion, the fluids, and the command and power modules.

  6. Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models in Chemical Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moiz Mumtaz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Post-exposure risk assessment of chemical and environmental stressors is a public health challenge. Linking exposure to health outcomes is a 4-step process: exposure assessment, hazard identification, dose response assessment, and risk characterization. This process is increasingly adopting “in silico” tools such as physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK models to fine-tune exposure assessments and determine internal doses in target organs/tissues. Many excellent PBPK models have been developed. But most, because of their scientific sophistication, have found limited field application—health assessors rarely use them. Over the years, government agencies, stakeholders/partners, and the scientific community have attempted to use these models or their underlying principles in combination with other practical procedures. During the past two decades, through cooperative agreements and contracts at several research and higher education institutions, ATSDR funded translational research has encouraged the use of various types of models. Such collaborative efforts have led to the development and use of transparent and user-friendly models. The “human PBPK model toolkit” is one such project. While not necessarily state of the art, this toolkit is sufficiently accurate for screening purposes. Highlighted in this paper are some selected examples of environmental and occupational exposure assessments of chemicals and their mixtures.

  7. Risk Based Inspection of Gas-Cooling Heat Exchanger

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwi Priyanta

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available On October 2013, Pertamina Hulu Energi Offshore North West Java (PHE – ONWJ platform personnel found 93 leaking tubes locations in the finfan coolers/ gas-cooling heat exchanger. After analysis had been performed, the crack in the tube strongly indicate that stress corrosion cracking was occurred by chloride. Chloride stress corrosion cracking (CLSCC is the cracking occurred by the combined influence of tensile stress and a corrosive environment. CLSCC is the one of the most common reasons why austenitic stainless steel pipework or tube and vessels deteriorate in the chemical processing, petrochemical industries and maritime industries. In this thesis purpose to determine the appropriate inspection planning for two main items (tubes and header box in the gas-cooling heat exchanger using risk based inspection (RBI method. The result, inspection of the tubes must be performed on July 6, 2024 and for the header box inspection must be performed on July 6, 2025. In the end, RBI method can be applicated to gas-cooling heat exchanger. Because, risk on the tubes can be reduced from 4.537 m2/year to 0.453 m2/year. And inspection planning for header box can be reduced from 4.528 m2/year to 0.563 m2/year.

  8. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Nicholas D; Marquart, Hans; Christopher, Yvette; Laitinen, Juha; VAN Hemmen, Joop J

    2006-07-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of new measurements of dermal exposure together with detailed contextual information. This article describes the development of a set of generic task-based models capable of predicting potential dermal exposure to both solids and liquids in a wide range of situations. To facilitate modelling of the wide variety of dermal exposure situations six separate models were made for groupings of exposure scenarios called Dermal Exposure Operation units (DEO units). These task-based groupings cluster exposure scenarios with regard to the expected routes of dermal exposure and the expected influence of exposure determinants. Within these groupings linear mixed effect models were used to estimate the influence of various exposure determinants and to estimate components of variance. The models predict median potential dermal exposure rates for the hands and the rest of the body from the values of relevant exposure determinants. These rates are expressed as mg or microl product per minute. Using these median potential dermal exposure rates and an accompanying geometric standard deviation allows a range of exposure percentiles to be calculated.

  9. Urinary incontinence: hospital-based prevalence and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzieh Nojomi

    2008-02-01

    trauma, constipation, chronic illnesses (specially diabetes, and gynecologic and other pelvic surgeries.

  10. KEY WORDS: Urinary incontinence, prevalence, risk factors, hospital-based.
  11. Drought Risk Assessment based on Natural and Social Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jing; Wang, Huimin; Han, Dawei

    2015-04-01

    In many parts of the world, drought hazard is becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change and human activities. It is crucial to monitor and assess drought conditions, especially for decision making support in agriculture sector. The vegetation index (VI) decreases, and the land surface temperature (LST) increases when the vegetation is under drought stress. Therefore both of these remotely sensed indices are widely used in drought monitoring and assessment. Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) is obtained by establishing the feature space of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST, which reflects agriculture dry situation by inverting soil moisture. However, these indices only concern the natural hazard-causing factors. Our society is a complex large-scale system with various natural and social elements. The drought risk is the joint consequence of hazard-causing factors and hazard-affected bodies. For example, as the population increases, the exposure of the hazard-affected bodies also tends to increase. The high GDP enhances the response ability of government, and the irrigation and water conservancy reduces the vulnerability. Such characteristics of hazard-affected bodies should be coupled with natural factors. In this study, the 16-day moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI and LST data are combined to establish NDVI-Ts space according to different land use types in Yunnan Province, China. And then, TVDIs are calculated through dry and wet edges modeled as a linear fit to data for each land cover type. Next, the efforts are turned to establish an integrated drought assessment index of social factors and TVDI through ascertaining attribute weight based on rough sets theory. Thus, the new CDI (comprehensive drought index) recorded during spring of 2010 and the spatial variations in drought are analyzed and compared with TVDI dataset. Moreover, actual drought risk situation in the study area is given to

  12. A risk standard based on societal cost with bounded consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worledge, D.H.

    1982-01-01

    A risk standard is proposed that relates the frequency of occurrence of single events to the consequences of the events. Maximum consequences and risk aversion are used to give the cumulative risk curve a shape similar to the results of a risk assessment and to bound the expectation of deaths. Societal costs in terms of deaths are used to fix the parameters of the model together with an approximate comparison with individual risks. The proposed standard is compared with some practical applications of risk assessment to nuclear reactor systems

  13. Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs. equation-based Framingham models: significant implications for clinical care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, William J; Polansky, Jesse M; Boscardin, W John; Fung, Kathy Z; Steinman, Michael A

    2010-11-01

    US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20-79 from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having "moderate" risk (20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25-46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions of Americans into risk groups for which guidelines recommend different treatment strategies.

  14. Risk-Based Decision Support of Water Resource Management Alternatives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    West, Paul D; Trainor, Timothy E

    2006-01-01

    .... A model is presented that combines a new risk assessment methodology with traditional decision-making tools to enable systems engineers to capture the full spectrum of operational risks during the design process...

  15. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie, E-mail: christine.hendren@duke.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Lowry, Gregory V., E-mail: glowry@andrew.cmu.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 119 Porter Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Unrine, Jason M., E-mail: jason.unrine@uky.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Kentucky, Agricultural Science Center, Lexington, KY 40546 (United States); Wiesner, Mark R., E-mail: wiesner@duke.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, 121 Hudson Hall PO Box 90287, Durham, NC 27708 (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical–chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical–chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. - Highlights: • Approaches to predict risk directly from nanomaterial (NM) properties are problematic. • We propose

  16. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Gregory V.; Unrine, Jason M.; Wiesner, Mark R.

    2015-01-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical–chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical–chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. - Highlights: • Approaches to predict risk directly from nanomaterial (NM) properties are problematic. • We propose

  17. Risk based test interval and maintenance optimisation - Application and uses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sparre, E.

    1999-10-01

    The project is part of an IAEA co-ordinated Research Project (CRP) on 'Development of Methodologies for Optimisation of Surveillance Testing and Maintenance of Safety Related Equipment at NPPs'. The purpose of the project is to investigate the sensitivity of the results obtained when performing risk based optimisation of the technical specifications. Previous projects have shown that complete LPSA models can be created and that these models allow optimisation of technical specifications. However, these optimisations did not include any in depth check of the result sensitivity with regards to methods, model completeness etc. Four different test intervals have been investigated in this study. Aside from an original, nominal, optimisation a set of sensitivity analyses has been performed and the results from these analyses have been compared to the original optimisation. The analyses indicate that the result of an optimisation is rather stable. However, it is not possible to draw any certain conclusions without performing a number of sensitivity analyses. Significant differences in the optimisation result were discovered when analysing an alternative configuration. Also deterministic uncertainties seem to affect the result of an optimisation largely. The sensitivity of failure data uncertainties is important to investigate in detail since the methodology is based on the assumption that the unavailability of a component is dependent on the length of the test interval

  18. Reliability and risk analysis data base development: an historical perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.

    1996-01-01

    Collection of empirical data and data base development for use in the prediction of the probability of future events has a long history. Dating back at least to the 17th century, safe passage events and mortality events were collected and analyzed to uncover prospective underlying classes and associated class attributes. Tabulations of these developed classes and associated attributes formed the underwriting basis for the fledgling insurance industry. Much earlier, master masons and architects used design rules of thumb to capture the experience of the ages and thereby produce structures of incredible longevity and reliability (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and Galvagni, R. Risk based decision analysis in design. Fourth SRA Europe Conference Proceedings, Rome, Italy, 18-20 October 1993). These rules served so well in producing robust designs that it was not until almost the 19th century that the analysis (Charlton, T.M., A History Of Theory Of Structures In The 19th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1982) of masonry voussoir arches, begun by Galileo some two centuries earlier (Galilei, G. Discorsi e dimostrazioni mathematiche intorno a due nuove science, (Discourses and mathematical demonstrations concerning two new sciences, Leiden, The Netherlands, 1638), was placed on a sound scientific basis. Still, with the introduction of new materials (such as wrought iron and steel) and the lack of theoretical knowledge and computational facilities, approximate methods of structural design abounded well into the second half of the 20th century. To this day structural designers account for material variations and gaps in theoretical knowledge by employing factors of safety (Benvenuto, E., An Introduction to the History of Structural Mechanics, Part II: Vaulted Structures and Elastic Systems, Springer-Verlag, NY, 1991) or codes of practice (ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, ASME, New York) originally developed in the 19th century (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and

  19. Towards Validating Risk Indicators Based on Measurement Theory (Extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    Due to the lack of quantitative information and for cost-efficiency, most risk assessment methods use partially ordered values (e.g. high, medium, low) as risk indicators. In practice it is common to validate risk indicators by asking stakeholders whether they make sense. This way of validation is

  20. Perceptions of risk in adults with a low or high risk profile of developing type 2 diabetes; a cross sectional population-bases study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adriaanse, M.C.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Dekker, J.M.; Spijkerman, A.M.W.; Nijpels, G.; Heine, R.J.; Snoek, F.J.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To compare the perceived seriousness and risk of type 2 diabetes among low risk with high risk profile non-diabetic subjects and examine the relationship of perceived risk with multiple self-reported risk indicators. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study among 4435 low risk

  21. 12 CFR 652.65 - Risk-based capital stress test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) You will use Corporation loan-level data to implement the credit risk component of the risk-based... Service corporate income tax schedule, as further described in appendix A to this subpart. (b) Credit risk. The credit risk part estimates loan losses during a period of sustained economic stress. (1) For each...

  1. Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment: An Empirical Model to Describe Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment on the Culling of Healthy Animals During an Animal Disease Epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen, N.E.; Brom, F.W.A.; Stassen, E.N.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present and defend the theoretical framework of an empirical model to describe people’s fundamental moral attitudes (FMAs) to animals, the stratification of FMAs in society and the role of FMAs in judgment on the culling of healthy animals in an animal disease epidemic. We used

  2. A risk-based approach to flammable gas detector spacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defriend, Stephen; Dejmek, Mark; Porter, Leisa; Deshotels, Bob; Natvig, Bernt

    2008-11-15

    Flammable gas detectors allow an operating company to address leaks before they become serious, by automatically alarming and by initiating isolation and safe venting. Without effective gas detection, there is very limited defense against a flammable gas leak developing into a fire or explosion that could cause loss of life or escalate to cascading failures of nearby vessels, piping, and equipment. While it is commonly recognized that some gas detectors are needed in a process plant containing flammable gas or volatile liquids, there is usually a question of how many are needed. The areas that need protection can be determined by dispersion modeling from potential leak sites. Within the areas that must be protected, the spacing of detectors (or alternatively, number of detectors) should be based on risk. Detector design can be characterized by spacing criteria, which is convenient for design - or alternatively by number of detectors, which is convenient for cost reporting. The factors that influence the risk are site-specific, including process conditions, chemical composition, number of potential leak sites, piping design standards, arrangement of plant equipment and structures, design of isolation and depressurization systems, and frequency of detector testing. Site-specific factors such as those just mentioned affect the size of flammable gas cloud that must be detected (within a specified probability) by the gas detection system. A probability of detection must be specified that gives a design with a tolerable risk of fires and explosions. To determine the optimum spacing of detectors, it is important to consider the probability that a detector will fail at some time and be inoperative until replaced or repaired. A cost-effective approach is based on the combined risk from a representative selection of leakage scenarios, rather than a worst-case evaluation. This means that probability and severity of leak consequences must be evaluated together. In marine and

  3. Design of process displays based on risk analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundtang Paulsen, J.

    2004-05-01

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, especially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems. The state of the art is discussed: How are supervision systems designed today and why? Which strategies are used? What kind of research is going on? Four different plants and their display systems, designed by the author, are described and discussed. Next we outline different methods for eliciting knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chapter presents an overview of the various types of operation references: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, component characteristics etc., and their validity in different situations. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engineer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is on the table, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant. (au)

  4. Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.

    2014-09-01

    Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

  5. Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Hong

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs. The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

  6. Risk assessment of logistics outsourcing based on BP neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaofeng; Tian, Zi-you

    The purpose of this article is to evaluate the risk of the enterprises logistics outsourcing. To get this goal, the paper first analysed he main risks existing in the logistics outsourcing, and then set up a risk evaluation index system of the logistics outsourcing; second applied BP neural network into the logistics outsourcing risk evaluation and used MATLAB to the simulation. It proved that the network error is small and has strong practicability. And this method can be used by enterprises to evaluate the risks of logistics outsourcing.

  7. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in aging risk-based prioritizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.; Uryas'ev, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Aging risk evaluations of nuclear power plants using Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs) involve assessments of the impact of aging structures, systems, and components (SSCs) on plant core damage frequency (CDF). These assessments can be used to prioritize the contributors to aging risk reflecting the relative risk potential of the SSCs. Aging prioritizations are important for identifying the SSCs contributing most to plant risk and can provide a systematic basis on which aging risk control and management strategies for a plant can be developed. However, these prioritizations are subject to variabilities arising from uncertainties in data, and/or from various modeling assumptions. The objective of this paper is to present an evaluation of the sensitivity of aging prioritizations of active components to uncertainties in aging risk quantifications. Approaches for robust prioritization of SSCs also are presented which are less susceptible to the uncertainties

  8. The neural bases underlying social risk perception in purchase decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Ryoichi; Nozawa, Takayuki; Sugiura, Motoaki; Yomogida, Yukihito; Takeuchi, Hikaru; Akimoto, Yoritaka; Shibuya, Satoru; Kawashima, Ryuta

    2014-05-01

    Social considerations significantly influence daily purchase decisions, and the perception of social risk (i.e., the anticipated disapproval of others) is crucial in dissuading consumers from making purchases. However, the neural basis for consumers' perception of social risk remains undiscovered, and this novel study clarifies the relevant neural processes. A total of 26 volunteers were scanned while they evaluated purchase intention of products (purchase intention task) and their anticipation of others' disapproval for possessing a product (social risk task), using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The fMRI data from the purchase intention task was used to identify the brain region associated with perception of social risk during purchase decision making by using subjective social risk ratings for a parametric modulation analysis. Furthermore, we aimed to explore if there was a difference between participants' purchase decisions and their explicit evaluations of social risk, with reference to the neural activity associated with social risk perception. For this, subjective social risk ratings were used for a parametric modulation analysis on fMRI data from the social risk task. Analysis of the purchase intention task revealed a significant positive correlation between ratings of social risk and activity in the anterior insula, an area of the brain that is known as part of the emotion-related network. Analysis of the social risk task revealed a significant positive correlation between ratings of social risk and activity in the temporal parietal junction and the medial prefrontal cortex, which are known as theory-of-mind regions. Our results suggest that the anterior insula processes consumers' social risk implicitly to prompt consumers not to buy socially unacceptable products, whereas ToM-related regions process such risk explicitly in considering the anticipated disapproval of others. These findings may prove helpful in understanding the mental

  9. Integration of Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saile, Lyn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; Kerstman, Eric; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

    2011-01-01

    . CONCLUSION: The IMM Database in junction with the IMM is helping NASA aerospace program improve the health care and reduce risk for the astronauts crew. Both the database and model will continue to expand to meet customer needs through its multi-disciplinary evidence based approach to managing data. Future expansion could serve as a platform for a Space Medicine Wiki of medical conditions.

  10. A risk-based approach to scheduling audits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rönninger, Stephan; Holmes, Malcolm

    2009-01-01

    The manufacture and supply of pharmaceutical products can be a very complex operation. Companies may purchase a wide variety of materials, from active pharmaceutical ingredients to packaging materials, from "in company" suppliers or from third parties. They may also purchase or contract a number of services such as analysis, data management, audit, among others. It is very important that these materials and services are of the requisite quality in order that patient safety and company reputation are adequately protected. Such quality requirements are ongoing throughout the product life cycle. In recent years, assurance of quality has been derived via audit of the supplier or service provider and by using periodic audits, for example, annually or at least once every 5 years. In the past, companies may have used an audit only for what they considered to be "key" materials or services and used testing on receipt, for example, as their quality assurance measure for "less important" supplies. Such approaches changed as a result of pressure from both internal sources and regulators to the time-driven audit for all suppliers and service providers. Companies recognised that eventually they would be responsible for the quality of the supplied product or service and audit, although providing only a "snapshot in time" seemed a convenient way of demonstrating that they were meeting their obligations. Problems, however, still occur with the supplied product or service and will usually be more frequent from certain suppliers. Additionally, some third-party suppliers will no longer accept routine audits from individual companies, as the overall audit load can exceed one external audit per working day. Consequently a different model is needed for assessing supplier quality. This paper presents a risk-based approach to creating an audit plan and for scheduling the frequency and depth of such audits. The approach is based on the principles and process of the Quality Risk Management

  11. Risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat: A comparison of two approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten; Andersen, Jens Kirk; Tuominen, Pirkko

    2015-01-01

    Risk-based microbiological criteria can offer a tool to control Campylobacter in the broiler meat production chain. Recently two approaches have been applied to derive such criteria and to analyse their potential impact in terms of human health risk reduction: the risk-based version...

  12. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim

    2015-01-01

    action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health. Scope and approach The advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring the safety of food chemicals, allergens, ingredients and microorganisms were...

  13. Recognition of risk situations based on endoscopic instrument tracking and knowledge based situation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speidel, Stefanie; Sudra, Gunther; Senemaud, Julien; Drentschew, Maximilian; Müller-Stich, Beat Peter; Gutt, Carsten; Dillmann, Rüdiger

    2008-03-01

    Minimally invasive surgery has gained significantly in importance over the last decade due to the numerous advantages on patient-side. The surgeon has to adapt special operation-techniques and deal with difficulties like the complex hand-eye coordination, limited field of view and restricted mobility. To alleviate these constraints we propose to enhance the surgeon's capabilities by providing a context-aware assistance using augmented reality (AR) techniques. In order to generate a context-aware assistance it is necessary to recognize the current state of the intervention using intraoperatively gained sensor data and a model of the surgical intervention. In this paper we present the recognition of risk situations, the system warns the surgeon if an instrument gets too close to a risk structure. The context-aware assistance system starts with an image-based analysis to retrieve information from the endoscopic images. This information is classified and a semantic description is generated. The description is used to recognize the current state and launch an appropriate AR visualization. In detail we present an automatic vision-based instrument tracking to obtain the positions of the instruments. Situation recognition is performed using a knowledge representation based on a description logic system. Two augmented reality visualization programs are realized to warn the surgeon if a risk situation occurs.

  14. IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Xiaoling

    Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

  15. Crash sequence based risk matrix for motorcycle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Kun-Feng; Sasidharan, Lekshmi; Thor, Craig P; Chen, Sheng-Yin

    2018-04-05

    Considerable research has been conducted related to motorcycle and other powered-two-wheeler (PTW) crashes; however, it always has been controversial among practitioners concerning with types of crashes should be first targeted and how to prioritize resources for the implementation of mitigating actions. Therefore, there is a need to identify types of motorcycle crashes that constitute the greatest safety risk to riders - most frequent and most severe crashes. This pilot study seeks exhibit the efficacy of a new approach for prioritizing PTW crash causation sequences as they relate to injury severity to better inform the application of mitigating countermeasures. To accomplish this, the present study constructed a crash sequence-based risk matrix to identify most frequent and most severe motorcycle crashes in an attempt to better connect causes and countermeasures of PTW crashes. Although the frequency of each crash sequence can be computed from crash data, a crash severity model is needed to compare the levels of crash severity among different crash sequences, while controlling for other factors that also have effects on crash severity such drivers' age, use of helmet, etc. The construction of risk matrix based on crash sequences involve two tasks: formulation of crash sequence and the estimation of a mixed-effects (ME) model to adjust the levels of severities for each crash sequence to account for other crash contributing factors that would have an effect on the maximum level of crash severity in a crash. Three data elements from the National Automotive Sampling System - General Estimating System (NASS-GES) data were utilized to form a crash sequence: critical event, crash types, and sequence of events. A mixed-effects model was constructed to model the severity levels for each crash sequence while accounting for the effects of those crash contributing factors on crash severity. A total of 8039 crashes involving 8208 motorcycles occurred during 2011 and 2013 were

  16. Investors’ Risk Preference Characteristics Based on Different Reference Point

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fenghua Wen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking the stock market as a whole object, we assume that prior losses and gains are two different factors that can influence risk preference separately. The two factors are introduced as separate explanatory variables into the time-varying GARCH-M (TVRA-GARCH-M model. Then, we redefine prior losses and gains by selecting different reference point to study investors’ time-varying risk preference. The empirical evidence shows that investors’ risk preference is time varying and is influenced by previous outcomes; the stock market as a whole exhibits house money effect; that is, prior gains can decrease investors’ risk aversion while prior losses increase their risk aversion. Besides, different reference points selected by investors will cause different valuation of prior losses and gains, thus affecting investors’ risk preference.

  17. Risk based maintenance: Resource requirements and organizational challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weerakkody, S.D.

    2000-01-01

    10CFR50.65 'Requirements for Monitoring the Effectiveness of Maintenance at Nuclear Power Plants' required licensees to monitor the performance or condition of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) against licensee established goals, in a manner sufficient to provide reasonable assurance that such SSCs are capable of fulfilling their intended functions. The goals were required to be commensurate with safety significance and operating experience. Northeast Utilities relied upon PRAs to implement 10CFR50.65, which is also referred to as the 'Maintenance Rule'. The Maintenance Rule changed some aspects of maintenance of structures, systems, and components (SSC) at nuclear power plants. One objective of the rule was to focus the maintenance resources based on risk significance of components. This paper will discuss the organizational challenges and resource requirements associated with implementation of the Maintenance Rule at nuclear facilities that are supported by the Northeast Utilities Services Company (NUSCo). The paper will discuss (a) how these challenges were addressed, (b) the resources required for ongoing efforts to support the Maintenance Rule, and (c) several key safety benefits derived from the implementation of the Maintenance Rule. (author)

  18. Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

    1991-05-01

    To assess the potential use of risk and reliability techniques for improving the effectiveness of the technical specifications to control plant operational risk, the Technical Specifications Branch of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated an effort to identify and evaluate alternative risk-based approaches that could bring greater risk perspective to these requirements. In the first phase four alternative approaches were identified and their characteristics were analyzed. Among these, the risk-based approach to technical specifications is the most promising approach for controlling plant operational risk using technical specifications. The second phase of the study concentrated on detailed characteristics of the real time risk-based approach. It is concluded that a real time risk-based approach to technical specifications has the potential to improve both plant safety and availability. 33 figs., 5 figs., 6 tabs

  19. K-Anonymity Based Privacy Risk Budgeting System for Interactive Record Linkage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hye-Chung Kum

    2017-04-01

    The k-anonymity based privacy risk budgeting system provides a mechanism where we can concretely reason about the tradeoff between the privacy risks due to information disclosed, accuracy gained, and biases reduced during interactive record linkage.

  20. Conceptual Framework for Trait-Based Ecological Risk Assessment for Wildlife Populations Exposed to Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Between screening level risk assessments and complex ecological models, a need exists for practical identification of risk based on general information about species, chemicals, and exposure scenarios. Several studies have identified demographic, biological, and toxicological fa...

  1. Risk-based assessment of the surety of information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansma, R.M.; Fletcher, S.K.; Murphy, M.D.; Lim, J.J.; Wyss, G.D.

    1996-07-01

    When software is used in safety-critical, security-critical, or mission-critical situations, it is imperative to understand and manage the risks involved. A risk assessment methodology and toolset have been developed which are specific to software systems and address a broad range of risks including security, safety, and correct operation. A unique aspect of this methodology is the use of a modeling technique that captures interactions and tradeoffs among risk mitigators. This paper describes the concepts and components of the methodology and presents its application to example systems.

  2. INFORMATION SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT USING EXISTING LEGAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Trubei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides a survey of the existing regulatory framework for information security riskmanagement. Practical methods for information security risk and vulnerability assessment are proposed.

  3. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  4. In service inspection of pipes based on risk methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza G, G.; Viais J, J.; Carmona C, M.

    2006-01-01

    The politics of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (by its initials in English NRC) of the United States of America on the use of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) in activities of nuclear regulation it foments the use of this analysis technique to improve the decisions making, to reduce the unnecessary work in maintenance aspects, inspection and tests and to improve the regulatory efficiency. The inspection programs in service (ISI by its initials in English) developed by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (by its initials in English ASME) it has been the one primary mechanism to prove the mechanical equipment in plants of nuclear energy, these programs indeed have been carried out in plants of nuclear energy by more of two decades. Their purpose is to identify the conditions, such as indications of cracks that are precursory of flights and ruptures which violate the integrity principles of the pressure frontier. The inspection in service activities include ultrasonic tests, surface tests and penetrating liquids test, also activities that include the scaffolds construction, removal of insulations and welding polishing. The inspections in service every 18 months during the times outside of service are executed. One of the objectives is to lower the costs of the inspections during the times outside of service and to reduce the exposure to the radiation by part of the personnel during these times out for inspections, while it is increased or it maintains the personnel's safety and the reliability. As part of the methodology a pipe segment is selected for which a fault in any point has the same consequences, being calculated the fault probability of the tube using the dimensions of the segment. In this work the inspection in service methodology is applied based on risk to an aspersion system of low pressure of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric Central. For this system a reduction in the number of welding to inspect of 103 to only 15 is obtained

  5. Health-Based Capitation Risk Adjustment in Minnesota Public Health Care Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, Gregory A.; Edwards, Kevan R.; Knutson, David J.

    2004-01-01

    This article documents the history and implementation of health-based capitation risk adjustment in Minnesota public health care programs, and identifies key implementation issues. Capitation payments in these programs are risk adjusted using an historical, health plan risk score, based on concurrent risk assessment. Phased implementation of capitation risk adjustment for these programs began January 1, 2000. Minnesota's experience with capitation risk adjustment suggests that: (1) implementation can accelerate encounter data submission, (2) administrative decisions made during implementation can create issues that impact payment model performance, and (3) changes in diagnosis data management during implementation may require changes to the payment model. PMID:25372356

  6. Effectiveness of Neuromuscular Training Based on the Neuromuscular Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewett, Timothy E; Ford, Kevin R; Xu, Yingying Y; Khoury, Jane; Myer, Gregory D

    2017-07-01

    The effects of targeted neuromuscular training (TNMT) on movement biomechanics associated with the risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are currently unknown. Purpose/Hypotheses: To determine the effectiveness of TNMT specifically designed to increase trunk control and hip strength. The hypotheses were that (1) TNMT would decrease biomechanical and neuromuscular factors related to an increased ACL injury risk and (2) TNMT would decrease these biomechanical and neuromuscular factors to a greater extent in athletes identified as being at a high risk for future ACL injuries. Controlled laboratory study. Female athletes who participated in jumping, cutting, and pivoting sports underwent 3-dimensional biomechanical testing before the season and after completing TNMT. During testing, athletes performed 3 different types of tasks: (1) drop vertical jump, (2) single-leg drop, and (3) single-leg cross drop. Analysis of covariance was used to examine the treatment effects of TNMT designed to enhance core and hip strength on biomechanical and neuromuscular characteristics. Differences were also evaluated by risk profile. Differences were considered statistically significant at P risk before the intervention (risk profile III) had a more significant treatment effect of TNMT than low-risk groups (risk profiles I and II). TNMT significantly improved proximal biomechanics, including increased hip external rotation moments and moment impulses, increased peak trunk flexion, and decreased peak trunk extension. TNMT that focuses exclusively on proximal leg and trunk risk factors is not, however, adequate to induce significant changes in frontal-plane knee loading. Biomechanical changes varied across the risk profile groups, with higher risk groups exhibiting greater improvements in their biomechanics.

  7. Health-based risk neutralization in private disability insurance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnvoord, Elisabeth C.; Buitenhuis, Jan; Brouwer, Sandra; van der Klink, Jac J. L.; de Boer, Michiel R.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Exclusions are used by insurers to neutralize higher than average risks of sickness absence (SA). However, differentiating risk groups according to one's medical situation can be seen as discrimination against people with health problems in violation of a 2006 United Nations convention.

  8. Health-based risk neutralization in private disability insurance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnvoord, Elisabeth C; Buitenhuis, Jan; Brouwer, Sandra; van der Klink, Jac J L; de Boer, Michiel R

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Exclusions are used by insurers to neutralize higher than average risks of sickness absence (SA). However, differentiating risk groups according to one's medical situation can be seen as discrimination against people with health problems in violation of a 2006 United Nations convention.

  9. An agent-based model of flood risk and insurance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dubbelboer, J.; Nikolic, I.; Jenkins, K.; Hall, J

    2017-01-01

    Flood risk emerges from the dynamic interaction between natural hazards and human vulnerability. Methods for the quantification of flood risk are well established, but tend to deal with human and economic vulnerability as being static or changing with an exogenously defined trend. In this paper

  10. safety risk management based on fuzzy logic at underground projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Taherkhani

    2017-11-01

    Conclusion: In the present article, a new model was developed to calculate the probability of occurrence of the event, which so far has not been addressed in other studies. Finally, effective measures can be taken to reduce the risk of a project by eliminating the high risk factors.

  11. IT Confidentiality Risk Assessment for an Architecture-Based Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Zambon, Emmanuele; Etalle, Sandro; Overbeek, Paul

    2008-01-01

    Information systems require awareness of risks and a good understanding of vulnerabilities and their exploitations. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the systematic assessment and analysis of confidentiality risks caused by disclosure of operational and functional information. The

  12. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  13. Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

    1995-01-01

    The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

  14. Risk factors for child maltreatment in an Australian population-based birth cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doidge, James C; Higgins, Daryl J; Delfabbro, Paul; Segal, Leonie

    2017-02-01

    Child maltreatment and other adverse childhood experiences adversely influence population health and socioeconomic outcomes. Knowledge of the risk factors for child maltreatment can be used to identify children at risk and may represent opportunities for prevention. We examined a range of possible child, parent and family risk factors for child maltreatment in a prospective 27-year population-based birth cohort of 2443 Australians. Physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect and witnessing of domestic violence were recorded retrospectively in early adulthood. Potential risk factors were collected prospectively during childhood or reported retrospectively. Associations were estimated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions and combined into cumulative risk scores. Higher levels of economic disadvantage, poor parental mental health and substance use, and social instability were strongly associated with increased risk of child maltreatment. Indicators of child health displayed mixed associations and infant temperament was uncorrelated to maltreatment. Some differences were observed across types of maltreatment but risk profiles were generally similar. In multivariate analyses, nine independent risk factors were identified, including some that are potentially modifiable: economic disadvantage and parental substance use problems. Risk of maltreatment increased exponentially with the number of risk factors experienced, with prevalence of maltreatment in the highest risk groups exceeding 80%. A cumulative risk score based on the independent risk factors allowed identification of individuals at very high risk of maltreatment, while a score that incorporated all significant risk and protective factors provided better identification of low-risk individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. CAViaR-based forecast for oil price risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Dashan; Yu, Baimin; Fabozzi, Frank J.; Fukushima, Masao

    2009-01-01

    As a benchmark for measuring market risk, value-at-risk (VaR) reduces the risk associated with any kind of asset to just a number (amount in terms of a currency), which can be well understood by regulators, board members, and other interested parties. This paper employs a new VaR approach due to Engle and Manganelli [Engle, R.F., Manganelli, S., 2004. CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 22, 367-381] to forecasting oil price risk. In doing so, we provide two original contributions by introducing a new exponentially weighted moving average CAViaR model and developing a mixed data regression model for multi-period VaR prediction. (author)

  16. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

    2018-01-22

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

  17. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenley, C. Robert; Collins, John W.; Beck, John M.; Heydt, Harold J.; Garcia, Chad B.

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.

  19. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    OpenAIRE

    Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim; Cockburn, Andrew; Dekant, Wolfgang; Hepburn, Paul; Houben, Geert F.; König, Jürgen; Nauta, Maarten; Schuermans, Jeroen; Bánáti, Diána

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundFood legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health.Scope and approachThe advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-ba...

  20. Biomechanical rupture risk assessment of abdominal aortic aneurysms based on a novel probabilistic rupture risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polzer, Stanislav; Gasser, T Christian

    2015-12-06

    A rupture risk assessment is critical to the clinical treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patients. The biomechanical AAA rupture risk assessment quantitatively integrates many known AAA rupture risk factors but the variability of risk predictions due to model input uncertainties remains a challenging limitation. This study derives a probabilistic rupture risk index (PRRI). Specifically, the uncertainties in AAA wall thickness and wall strength were considered, and wall stress was predicted with a state-of-the-art deterministic biomechanical model. The discriminative power of PRRI was tested in a diameter-matched cohort of ruptured (n = 7) and intact (n = 7) AAAs and compared to alternative risk assessment methods. Computed PRRI at 1.5 mean arterial pressure was significantly (p = 0.041) higher in ruptured AAAs (20.21(s.d. 14.15%)) than in intact AAAs (3.71(s.d. 5.77)%). PRRI showed a high sensitivity and specificity (discriminative power of 0.837) to discriminate between ruptured and intact AAA cases. The underlying statistical representation of stochastic data of wall thickness, wall strength and peak wall stress had only negligible effects on PRRI computations. Uncertainties in AAA wall stress predictions, the wide range of reported wall strength and the stochastic nature of failure motivate a probabilistic rupture risk assessment. Advanced AAA biomechanical modelling paired with a probabilistic rupture index definition as known from engineering risk assessment seems to be superior to a purely deterministic approach. © 2015 The Author(s).

  1. Risk-based regulation - an NRC perspective and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, T.L.; Murphy, J.A.

    1993-01-01

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision making has traditionally been part of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) policy and practice. In the early days of regulation, this consideration was more qualitative in nature and was reflected in prescriptive/deterministic regulatory requirements. However, with the development of quantitative risk assessment methods, more detailed and comprehensive (although not complete) risk information on nuclear power plants is available to the designer, operator, and regulator. The availability of such information provides an opportunity to assess the need for change in the current regulatory structure and to develop future regulatory requirements in a less prescriptive, more performance-oriented fashion

  2. Study on institutionalization of risk-informed performance-based regulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, M. G.; Hong, S. Y.; Seo, M. R. [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2003-02-15

    In this study, for the institutionalization of risk informed and performance based regulation in Korea, the latest technical movements of overseas countries are examined and reviewed. And the issues that was found when license change petition using risk information was submitted in Korean regulatory body are reviewed. Based on these review, the applicable areas to domestic situation will be found and proposed. This study can contribute to setting up the proper direction for the institutionalization of risk informed and performance based regulation.

  3. The risk-based approach to anti-money laundering: problems and solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonova, Anna

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper, which is a part of a PhD thesis, is to detect problems associated with the risk-based approach to anti-money laundering (AML), as well as present ways to improve the risk-based approach. Design/methodology/approach – The method is law and economics. The Ph......D thesis itself is also based on a comparative analysis of the Danish and British AML regimes. Findings – The main findings are: failure to develop adequate risk-based AML systems, taking into account varying levels of money laundering risk, is not only to be considered in the context of legal risk...... but also and more importantly in the context of integrity risk; anti-money laundering (AML) has to be made part of financial and non-financial institutions' corporate social responsibility policies; the Risk Analysis Manual provided by the Central Bank of The Netherlands lists very specific...

  4. Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

    2017-03-01

    Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

  5. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Fournier, Mathieu

    -neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

  6. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris

    -neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models' performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

  7. Risk-based selection of SSCs at Peach Bottom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krueger, G.A.; Marie, A.J.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of identifying risk significant systems, structures, and components (SSCS) that are within the scope of the maintenance rule is to bring a higher level of attention to a subset of those SSCS. These risk-significant SSCs will have specific performance criteria established for them, and failure to meet this performance criteria will result in establishing goals to ensure the necessary improvement in performance. The Peach Bottom individual plant examination (IPE) results were used to provide insights for the verification of proposed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods set forth in the Industry Maintenance Guidelines for Implementation of the Maintenance Rule. The objective of reviewing the methods for selection of SSCs that are considered risk significant was to ensure the methods used are logical, reproducible, and can be consistently applied

  8. Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina V. Tulupova

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

  9. Identifying and Mitigating the Impact of the Budget Control Act on High Risk Sectors and Tiers of the Defense Industrial Base: Assessment Approach to Industrial Base Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    Ü~åÖÉ= - 351 - products, similar to those found in a bill of material. Figure 3 provides an example of the relationship between sectors , sub- sectors ...defense aircraft. Defense aircraft are divided in three main sub- sectors : fixed-wing, rotary wing, and unmanned systems. The fixed-wing sub- sector ...Risk Sectors and Tiers of the Defense Industrial Base: Assessment Approach to Industrial Base Risks Lirio Avilés, Engineer, MIBP, OUSD(AT&L) Sally

  10. Risk of portfolio with simulated returns based on copula model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razak, Ruzanna Ab; Ismail, Noriszura

    2015-02-01

    The commonly used tool for measuring risk of a portfolio with equally weighted stocks is variance-covariance method. Under extreme circumstances, this method leads to significant underestimation of actual risk due to its multivariate normality assumption of the joint distribution of stocks. The purpose of this research is to compare the actual risk of portfolio with the simulated risk of portfolio in which the joint distribution of two return series is predetermined. The data used is daily stock prices from the ASEAN market for the period January 2000 to December 2012. The copula approach is applied to capture the time varying dependence among the return series. The results shows that the chosen copula families are not suitable to present the dependence structures of each bivariate returns. Exception for the Philippines-Thailand pair where by t copula distribution appears to be the appropriate choice to depict its dependence. Assuming that the t copula distribution is the joint distribution of each paired series, simulated returns is generated and value-at-risk (VaR) is then applied to evaluate the risk of each portfolio consisting of two simulated return series. The VaR estimates was found to be symmetrical due to the simulation of returns via elliptical copula-GARCH approach. By comparison, it is found that the actual risks are underestimated for all pairs of portfolios except for Philippines-Thailand. This study was able to show that disregard of the non-normal dependence structure of two series will result underestimation of actual risk of the portfolio.

  11. Provider-based Medicare risk contracting and subcontracting: opportunities and risks for provider sponsored organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, H A; Zenner, P A; Kipp, R A; Whitney, E L

    1997-01-01

    Provider sponsored organizations (PSOs) are increasingly acquiring the risk for the management of Medicare Risk patients by accepting capitation directly from the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) or through contracts with HMOs or other organizations contracting with HCFA. The Medicare population and the requirements that the federal administration has put into place with respect to risk contracting are unique and demand specific responses on the part of the PSO for a contract to be successful. The PSO is cautioned to understand the actuarial risk, the clinical uniqueness of the Medicare beneficiary, Medicare reimbursement regulatory requirements, utilization management needs, and necessary reporting before entering into a contractual arrangement. This article attempts to describe some of the more common issues a provider organization must consider.

  12. [Physical process based risk assessment of groundwater pollution in the mining area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Fa-Sheng; Cheng, Pin; Zhang, Bo

    2014-04-01

    Case studies of groundwater pollution risk assessment at home and abroad generally start from groundwater vulnerability, without considering the influence of characteristic pollutants on the consequences of pollution too much. Vulnerability is the natural sensitivity of the environment to pollutants. Risk assessment of groundwater pollution should reflect the movement and distribution of pollutants in groundwater. In order to improve the risk assessment theory and method of groundwater pollution, a physical process based risk assessment methodology for groundwater pollution was proposed in a mining area. According to the sensitivity of the economic and social conditions and the possible distribution of pollutants in the future, the spatial distribution of risk levels in aquifer was ranged before hand, and the pollutant source intensity corresponding to each risk level was deduced accordingly. By taking it as the criterion for the classification of groundwater pollution risk assessment, the groundwater pollution risk in the mining area was evaluated by simulating the migration of pollutants in the vadose zone and aquifer. The result show that the risk assessment method of groundwater pollution based on physical process can give the concentration distribution of pollutants and the risk level in the spatial and temporal. For single punctuate polluted area, it gives detailed risk characterization, which is better than the risk assessment method that based on aquifer intrinsic vulnerability index, and it is applicable to the risk assessment of existing polluted sites, optimizing the future sites and providing design parameters for the site construction.

  13. Risk-based configuration control: Application of PSA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1992-01-01

    Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur, then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, to minimize the risk from components being unavailable, becomes difficult, because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. Controlling plant configuration from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser controls in areas unimportant to risk. Risk-based configuration control approaches can be used to replace parts of nuclear power plant Technical Specifications. With the advances in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technology, such approaches to improve Technical Specifications and operational safety are feasible. In this paper, we present an analysis of configuration risks, and a framework for risk-based configuration control to achieve the desired control of risk-significant configurations during plant operation

  14. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  15. 75 FR 3647 - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Risk-Based Capital...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-22

    ... Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Risk-Based Capital Requirements AGENCY: Farm Credit Administration. ACTION... further directed FCA to estimate the credit risk on the portfolio covered by this new authority at a rate... component to directly recognize the credit risk on such loans.\\4\\ At the time of the Farm Bill's enactment...

  16. Snus and risk of gastroesophageal reflux. A population-based case-control study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lie, Tina Malene; Bomme, Maria; Hveem, Kristian

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Tobacco smoking is a risk factor for gastroesophageal reflux, but whether other tobacco products increase the risk is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate if snus increases the risk of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms (GERS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study was based...

  17. Sibling risk of anxiety disorders based on hospitalizations in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xinjun; Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina

    2011-04-01

    This study used nationwide hospital records to examine sibling risk of any type of anxiety disorder in Sweden over a 40-year period. This study, carried out between 1 January 1968 and 31 December 2007, of the entire population of Sweden, linked information on family relationships from the nationwide Multi-Generation Register with information from the nationwide Swedish Hospital Discharge Register on first diagnosis of anxiety disorder. A total of 42,602 persons hospitalized for anxiety disorders and 2093 affected siblings were identified. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were calculated by comparing risk in siblings of persons hospitalized for anxiety disorders with risk in persons whose siblings had no hospital diagnosis of anxiety disorders. The sibling risk was 2.26, which was independent of sex and age differences between siblings. The SIR was highest in siblings sibling diagnosed with any anxiety disorder resulted in increased risks of a number of disorders; the highest increased risk was of social phobia (SIR 3.68, 95% confidence interval, 1.68-7.69). Risk of panic disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, mixed anxiety and depressive disorder, and obsessive-compulsive disorder was raised in female but not male siblings. Heritable effects likely play an important role in the cause of anxiety disorders, but the extent of their role remains to be established. Important contributions could be made by studies of gene-environment interactions that have sufficient sample sizes to produce reliable results. © 2011 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2011 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

  18. Gorduras de descarte e componentes externos do corpo de novilhos e vacas de descarte de diferentes grupos genéticos Trim fat and external components of the body of steers and cull cows from different genetic groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonatan Cattelan

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Objetivou-se com esse estudo avaliar as proporções das diferentes gorduras de descarte e os componentes externos do corpo de novilhos e vacas de descarte 5/8Charolês (Ch 3/8Nelore (Ne e 5/8Ne 3/8Ch. A idade média dos animais ao final do período experimental foi de 23 meses para os novilhos e 68 meses para as vacas de descarte. Os animais foram terminados em confinamento até atingirem acabamento para o abate. A dieta alimentar continha relação volumoso:concentrado de 40:60 (base na matéria seca, com 14,2% de proteína bruta e 2.869kcal de energia digestível kg-1 de matéria seca. O delineamento experimental foi o inteiramente casualizado, em um arranjo fatorial 2x2 (2 categorias x 2 grupos genéticos. Houve maior peso de abate (PAB (509,67 contra 414,50kg e de corpo vazio (PCVZ (433,01 contra 355,27kg para as vacas em relação aos novilhos. Quando os componentes foram expressos em valores absolutos e ajustados para PCVZ e PAB, as vacas apresentaram maiores pesos de gordura inguinal/úbere, gordura renal e no total de gordura interna. Quando os pesos dos componentes foram ajustados para PAB e PCVZ, os novilhos foram superiores no peso da cabeça, patas, vassoura da cauda e no total dos componentes externos. Os animais 5/8Ch 3/8Ne apresentaram maior peso absoluto da cabeça e maior peso relativo ao PCVZ da gordura ruminal, em relação aos 5/8Ne 3/8Ch. Por outro lado, os 5/8N e 3/8Ch apresentaram maiores pesos relativos ao PAB e PCVZ do couro e do PAB do total de componentes externos, quando comparados aos 5/8Ch 3/8Ne. Não houve correlação entre o rendimento de carcaça e os componentes não integrantes da carcaça.The objective of this research was to evaluate the trim fat and external components of the body of two categories, steers and cull cows, from two genetic groups: 5/8 Charolais (Ch 3/8 Nellore (Ne and 5/8Ne 3/8Ch. The average age of animals at the end of the experimental period was of 23 and 68 months, for steers and cull

  19. Feasibility of interdisciplinary community-based fall risk screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Sharon J; Ivanescu, Andrada; Leland, Natalie E; Fogo, Jennifer; Painter, Jane A; Trujillo, Leonard G

    2012-01-01

    This pilot study examined the feasibility of (1) conducting interdisciplinary fall risk screens at a communitywide adult fall prevention event and (2) collecting preliminary follow-up data from people screened at the event about balance confidence and home and activity modifications made after receiving educational information at the event. We conducted a pilot study with pre- and posttesting (4-mo follow-up) with 35 community-dwelling adults ≥55 yr old. Approximately half the participants were at risk for falls. Most participants who anticipated making environmental or activity changes to reduce fall risk initiated changes (n = 8/11; 72.7%) during the 4-mo follow-up period. We found no significant difference in participants' balance confidence between baseline (median = 62.81) and follow-up (median = 64.06) as measured by the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale. Conducting interdisciplinary fall risk screens at an adult fall prevention event is feasible and can facilitate environmental and behavior changes to reduce fall risk. Copyright © 2012 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

  20. Risk Management of Assets Dependency Based on Copulas Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Lei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As the two important form of financial market, the risk of financial securities, such as stocks and bonds, has been a hot topic in the financial field; at the same time, under the influence of many factors of financial assets, the correlation between portfolio returns causes more research. This paper presents Copula-SV-t model that it uses SV-t model to measure the edge distribution, and uses the Copula-t method to obtain the high-dimensional joint distribution. It not only solves the actual deviation with using the ARCH family model to calculate the portfolio risk, but also solves the problem to overestimate the risk with using extreme value theory to study financial risk. Through the empirical research, the conclusion shows that the model describes better assets and tail characteristics of assets, and is more in line with the reality of the market. Furthermore, Empirical evidence also shows that if the portfolio is relatively large degree of correlation, the ability to disperse portfolio risk is relatively weakness.

  1. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P [Servicio de Radiofísica y Protección Radiológica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain); Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C [Servicio de Oncología Radioterápica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  2. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P; Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  3. Ecological risk assessment of hydropower dam construction based on ecological network analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Shaoqing; Fath, Brian D.; Chen, Bin

    2010-01-01

    Dam construction is regarded as one of the major factors contributing to significant modifications of the river ecosystems, and the ecological risk (ER) assessment of dam construction has received growing attention in recent years. In the present study, we explored the potential ecological risk caused by dam project based on the general principles of the ecological risk assessment. Ecological network analysis was proposed as the usable analytic method for the implement of ecological risk asse...

  4. Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modelling for project risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fang , Chao; Marle , Franck

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Engineering projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. In this paper, we present a quantitative method for modelling propagation behaviour in the project risk network. The construction of the network requires the involvement of the project manager and related experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. A matrix-based risk propagation model is introduced to calculate risk propagation and thus to re-eva...

  5. Trust-Based Information Risk Management in a Supply Chain Network

    OpenAIRE

    Yanjun Zuo; Wen-Chen Hu

    2009-01-01

    Information risk management is crucial for an organization operating in an increasingly integrated and intensively communicated environment to mitigate risks and ensure core business functions. Given the open and dynamic nature of a supply chain network, information risk management is challenging and various factors must be considered. This article introduces a trust-based approach to facilitate supply chain participants to perform effective risk management. The major components of the propos...

  6. Risk Evaluation on UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on AHP and FCE Method

    OpenAIRE

    Huiru Zhao; Sen Guo

    2014-01-01

    Ultra high voltage (UHV) power transmission construction project is a high-tech power grid construction project which faces many risks and uncertainty. Identifying the risk of UHV power transmission construction project can help mitigate the risk loss and promote the smooth construction. The risk evaluation on “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project was performed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method in this paper. Afte...

  7. Application of probabilistic risk based optimization approaches in environmental restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldammer, W.

    1995-01-01

    The paper presents a general approach to site-specific risk assessments and optimization procedures. In order to account for uncertainties in the assessment of the current situation and future developments, optimization parameters are treated as probabilistic distributions. The assessments are performed within the framework of a cost-benefit analysis. Radiation hazards and conventional risks are treated within an integrated approach. Special consideration is given to consequences of low probability events such as, earthquakes or major floods. Risks and financial costs are combined to an overall figure of detriment allowing one to distinguish between benefits of available reclamation options. The probabilistic analysis uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The paper demonstrates the applicability of this approach in aiding the reclamation planning using an example from the German reclamation program for uranium mining and milling sites

  8. A risk based approach for SSTO/TSTO comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Joel S.

    1996-03-01

    An approach has been developed for performing early comparisons of transportation architectures explicitly taking into account quantitative measures of uncertainty and resulting risk. Risk considerations are necessary since the transportation systems are likely to have significantly different levels of risk, both because of differing degrees of freedom in achieving desired performance levels and their different states of development and utilization. The approach considers the uncertainty of achievement of technology goals, effect that the achieved technology level will have on transportation system performance and the relationship between system performance/capability and the ability to accommodate variations in payload mass. The consequences of system performance are developed in terms of nonrecurring, recurring, and the present value of transportation system life cycle costs.

  9. Measuring the coupled risks: A copula-based CVaR model

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xubiao; Gong, Pu

    2009-01-01

    Integrated risk management for financial institutions requires an approach for aggregating risk types (such as market and credit) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. The financial institutions often ignore risks' coupling influence so as to underestimate the financial risks. We constructed a copula-based Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) model for market and credit risks. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture essential empirical features of these risks, such as skewness and fat-tails while allowing for a rich dependence structure. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to implement the model. Our results indicate that the coupled risks for the listed company's stock maybe are undervalued if credit risk is ignored, especially for the listed company with bad credit quality.

  10. P2P Lending Risk Contagion Analysis Based on a Complex Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes two major channels of P2P lending risk contagion in China—direct risk contagion between platforms and indirect risk contagion with other financial organizations as the contagion medium. Based on this analysis, the current study constructs a complex network model of P2P lending risk contagion in China and performs dynamics analogue simulations in order to analyze general characteristics of direct risk contagion among China’s online P2P lending platforms. The assumed conditions are that other financial organizations act as the contagion medium, with variations in the risk contagion characteristics set under the condition of significant information asymmetry in Internet lending. It is indicated that, compared to direct risk contagion among platforms, both financial organizations acting as the contagion medium and information asymmetry magnify the effect of risk contagion. It is also found that the superposition of media effects and information asymmetry is more likely to magnify the risk contagion effect.

  11. A Novel Dynamic Algorithm for IT Outsourcing Risk Assessment Based on Transaction Cost Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guodong Cong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the great risk exposed in IT outsourcing, how to assess IT outsourcing risk becomes a critical issue. However, most of approaches to date need to further adapt to the particular complexity of IT outsourcing risk for either falling short in subjective bias, inaccuracy, or efficiency. This paper proposes a dynamic algorithm of risk assessment. It initially forwards extended three layers (risk factors, risks, and risk consequences of transferring mechanism based on transaction cost theory (TCT as the framework of risk analysis, which bridges the interconnection of components in three layers with preset transferring probability and impact. Then, it establishes an equation group between risk factors and risk consequences, which assures the “attribution” more precisely to track the specific sources that lead to certain loss. Namely, in each phase of the outsourcing lifecycle, both the likelihood and the loss of each risk factor and those of each risk are acquired through solving equation group with real data of risk consequences collected. In this “reverse” way, risk assessment becomes a responsive and interactive process with real data instead of subjective estimation, which improves the accuracy and alleviates bias in risk assessment. The numerical case proves the effectiveness of the algorithm compared with the approach forwarded by other references.

  12. Are Masking-Based Models of Risk Useful?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gisiner, Robert C

    2016-01-01

    As our understanding of directly observable effects from anthropogenic sound exposure has improved, concern about "unobservable" effects such as stress and masking have received greater attention. Equal energy models of masking such as power spectrum models have the appeal of simplicity, but do they offer biologically realistic assessments of the risk of masking? Data relevant to masking such as critical ratios, critical bandwidths, temporal resolution, and directional resolution along with what is known about general mammalian antimasking mechanisms all argue for a much more complicated view of masking when making decisions about the risk of masking inherent in a given anthropogenic sound exposure scenario.

  13. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

    1996-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operations (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analyses and engineering judgments. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant-specific Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs). The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research sponsored research to develop systematic, risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. A handbook of methods summarizing such risk-based approaches has been completed in 1994. It is expected that this handbook will provide valuable input to NRC's present work in developing guidance for using PRA in risk-informed regulation. The handbook addresses reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenance

  14. A clustering approach to segmenting users of internet-based risk calculators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harle, C A; Downs, J S; Padman, R

    2011-01-01

    Risk calculators are widely available Internet applications that deliver quantitative health risk estimates to consumers. Although these tools are known to have varying effects on risk perceptions, little is known about who will be more likely to accept objective risk estimates. To identify clusters of online health consumers that help explain variation in individual improvement in risk perceptions from web-based quantitative disease risk information. A secondary analysis was performed on data collected in a field experiment that measured people's pre-diabetes risk perceptions before and after visiting a realistic health promotion website that provided quantitative risk information. K-means clustering was performed on numerous candidate variable sets, and the different segmentations were evaluated based on between-cluster variation in risk perception improvement. Variation in responses to risk information was best explained by clustering on pre-intervention absolute pre-diabetes risk perceptions and an objective estimate of personal risk. Members of a high-risk overestimater cluster showed large improvements in their risk perceptions, but clusters of both moderate-risk and high-risk underestimaters were much more muted in improving their optimistically biased perceptions. Cluster analysis provided a unique approach for segmenting health consumers and predicting their acceptance of quantitative disease risk information. These clusters suggest that health consumers were very responsive to good news, but tended not to incorporate bad news into their self-perceptions much. These findings help to quantify variation among online health consumers and may inform the targeted marketing of and improvements to risk communication tools on the Internet.

  15. Design of Process Displays based on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Jette Lundtang

    -tions. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engi-neer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described...

  16. Risk-Based Models for Managing Data Privacy in Healthcare

    Science.gov (United States)

    AL Faresi, Ahmed

    2011-01-01

    Current research in health care lacks a systematic investigation to identify and classify various sources of threats to information privacy when sharing health data. Identifying and classifying such threats would enable the development of effective information security risk monitoring and management policies. In this research I put the first step…

  17. Questionnaire Based Assessment of Risk Factors for Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammert, Craig; Nguyen, Douglas L.; Juran, Brian D.; Schlicht, Erik; Larson, Joseph J.; Atkinson, Elizabeth J.; Lazaridis, Konstantinos N.

    2013-01-01

    Background Primary Biliary Cirrhosis is a cholestatic liver disease characterized by immune-mediated destruction of bile ducts. Its pathogenesis is largely unknown, although complex interactions between environment and genetic predisposition are proposed. Aims Identify disease risk factors using a detailed patient questionnaire and compare study findings to 3 published reports. Methods Questionnaire data were prospectively collected from 522 cases and 616 controls of the Mayo Clinic Primary Biliary Cirrhosis Genetic Epidemiology Registry. Case and control responses were compared using logistic regression, adjusting for recruitment age, sex, and education level. Results Cases reported ever regularly smoking cigarettes more frequently than controls (P < 0.001). History of urinary tract infection (UTI) was similar between groups; however, cases reported multiple UTIs more commonly than controls (P < 0.001). Frequency of other autoimmune disease was higher in cases than controls (P < 0.001). As well, prevalence of primary biliary cirrhosis among first-degree relatives was higher in case families than control families (P < 0.001). Conclusions Our study confirms prior reported risk factors associated with disease risk. Given the potential importance of gene and environment interactions, further examination of environmental risk factors considering genetic background may provide new insight into primary biliary cirrhosis pathogenesis. PMID:23490343

  18. Risk-based analysis of business process executions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alizadeh, M.; Zannone, N.

    2016-01-01

    Organizations need to monitor their business processes to ensure that what actually happens in the system is compliant with the prescribed behavior. Deviations from the prescribed behavior may correspond to violations of security requirements and expose organizations to severe risks. Thus, it is

  19. Enterprise Architecture-Based Risk and Security Modelling and Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, Henk; Quartel, Dick; Kordy, Barbara; Ekstedt, Mathias; Seong Kim, Deng

    2016-01-01

    The growing complexity of organizations and the increasing number of sophisticated cyber attacks asks for a systematic and integral approach to Enterprise Risk and Security Management (ERSM). As enterprise architecture offers the necessary integral perspective, including the business and IT aspects

  20. A risk-based approach to cleanup: Problems and pitfalls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anspaugh, L.

    1995-10-01

    This paper details information dealing with the meetings of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). Topics discussed include: Radtest program to summarize all data on radiation doses resulting from nuclear weapons testing; current status of US cleanup strategies; development of new milestones for the project due to reduced budgets; health hazards; and risk reduction

  1. Project Scheduling Based on Risk of Gas Transmission Pipe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvianita; Nurbaity, A.; Mulyadi, Y.; Suntoyo; Chamelia, D. M.

    2018-03-01

    The planning of a project has a time limit on which must be completed before or right at a predetermined time. Thus, in a project planning, it is necessary to have scheduling management that is useful for completing a project to achieve maximum results by considering the constraints that will exists. Scheduling management is undertaken to deal with uncertainties and negative impacts of time and cost in project completion. This paper explains about scheduling management in gas transmission pipeline project Gresik-Semarang to find out which scheduling plan is most effectively used in accordance with its risk value. Scheduling management in this paper is assissted by Microsoft Project software to find the critical path of existing project scheduling planning data. Critical path is the longest scheduling path with the fastest completion time. The result is found a critical path on project scheduling with completion time is 152 days. Furthermore, the calculation of risk is done by using House of Risk (HOR) method and it is found that the critical path has a share of 40.98 percent of all causes of the occurence of risk events that will be experienced.

  2. A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

    OpenAIRE

    Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

    2009-01-01

    The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommend...

  3. Operational Risk Measurement of Chinese Commercial Banks Based on Extreme Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jiashan; Li, Yong; Ji, Feng; Peng, Cheng

    The financial institutions and supervision institutions have all agreed on strengthening the measurement and management of operational risks. This paper attempts to build a model on the loss of operational risks basing on Peak Over Threshold model, emphasizing on weighted least square, which improved Hill’s estimation method, while discussing the situation of small sample, and fix the sample threshold more objectively basing on the media-published data of primary banks loss on operational risk from 1994 to 2007.

  4. Association between metabolic syndrome and bone fracture risk: A community-based study using a fracture risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Chia-Ying; Chen, Fang-Ping; Chen, Li-Wei; Kuo, Sheng-Fong; Chien, Rong-Nan

    2017-12-01

    Osteoporosis and metabolic syndrome (MS) share similar risk factors. Previous studies of association between bone marrow density (BMD) and MS are controversial. Moreover, some studies revealed that MS is associated with BMD but not with bone fracture. In clinical practice, patients pay more attention to bone fracture risk than BMD values. Hence, this study aimed to evaluate the association between MS and the 10-year bone fracture risk probability using a fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) from community-based data. From March 2014 to August 2015, 2689 participants (897 men and 1792 women) were enrolled in this study. Inflammatory cytokines, such as tumor necrosis factor alpha and C-reactive protein, and adipokines were included for analysis.The mean age was 60.2 ± 10.7 years in men and 58.9 ± 9.6 years in women. The percentage of MS was 27.6% in men and 27.9% in women. Participants were divided into 2 groups, those with or without MS. Compared with women without MS, women with MS had a higher rate of fracture risk (22.8% vs 16.3%, P = .001). In contrast, men with MS had a lower rate of fracture risk then men without MS (5.6% vs 12.3%, P = .004). However, MS loss the association with a high bone fracture risk in men based on multivariate logistical regression analysis, after adjusting for confounding factor of body mass index (BMI). Conclusively, the result of regression analysis between MS and the bone fracture risk may be different in men and women, and BMI was an important confounding factor to interfere with the regression analysis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Application of REVEAL-W to risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dezfuli, H.; Meyer, J.; Modarres, M.

    1994-01-01

    Over the past two years, the concept of risk-based configuration control has been introduced to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the nuclear industry. Converting much of the current, deterministically based regulation of nuclear power plants to risk-based regulation can result in lower levels of risk while relieving unnecessary burdens on power plant operators and regulatory staff. To achieve the potential benefits of risk-based configuration control, the risk models developed for nuclear power plants should be (1) flexible enough to effectively support necessary risk calculations, and (2) transparent enough to encourage their use by all parties. To address these needs, SCIENTECH, Inc., has developed the PC-based REVEAL W (formerly known as SMART). This graphic-oriented and user-friendly application software allows the user to develop transparent complex logic models based on the concept of the master plant logic diagram. The logic model is success-oriented and compact. The analytical capability built into REVEAL W is generic, so the software can support different types of risk-based evaluations, such as probabilistic safety assessment, accident sequence precursor analysis, design evaluation and configuration management. In this paper, we focus on the application of REVEAL W to support risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plants. (author)

  6. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barlow, S.M.; Boobis, A.R.; Bridges, J.; Cockburn, A.; Dekant, W.; Hepburn, P.; Houben, G.F.; König, J.; Nauta, M.J.; Schuermans, J.; Bánáti, D.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Food legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management

  7. PSA requirements for use in the safety management. Risk based indicators and the configurational control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to show the role of the risk based indicators- namely the core damage frequency (CDFI), the core damage probability indicators (CDPI) and the importance of the equipment together- in the risk based configuration control. 1 fig

  8. 12 CFR 956.4 - Risk-based capital requirement for investments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement for investments... OFF-BALANCE SHEET ITEMS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK INVESTMENTS § 956.4 Risk-based capital requirement for investments. Each Bank shall hold retained earnings plus general allowance for losses as support for the...

  9. Integrating household risk mitigation behaviour in flood risk analysis : An agent-based model approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W.J.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/297620584; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect

  10. Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

    1996-12-01

    Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an `expert panel.` The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC`s increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the {open_quotes}expert panel{close_quotes} and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate.

  11. Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

    1996-01-01

    Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an 'expert panel.' The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC's increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the open-quotes expert panelclose quotes and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate

  12. Options for improving hazardous waste cleanups using risk-based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elcock, D.

    1995-01-01

    This paper explores how risk- and technology-based criteria are currently used in the RCRA and CERCLA cleanup programs. It identifies ways in which risk could be further incorporated into RCRA and CERCLA cleanup requirements and the implications of risk-based approaches. The more universal use of risk assessment as embodied in the risk communication and risk improvement bills before Congress is not addressed. Incorporating risk into the laws and regulations governing hazardous waste cleanup, will allow the use of the best scientific information available to further the goal of environmental protection in the United States while containing costs. and may help set an example for other countries that may be developing cleanup programs, thereby contributing to enhanced global environmental management

  13. Estimation of second primary cancers risk based on the treatment planning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Chufeng; Sun Guangyao; Liu Hui; Zheng Huaqing; Cheng Mengyun; Li Gui; Wu Yican; FDS Team

    2011-01-01

    Estimates of second primary cancers risk after radiotherapy has become increasingly important for comparative treatment planning. A new method based on the treatment planning system to estimate the risk of second primary cancers was introduced in this paper. Using the Advanced/Accurate Radiotherapy Treatment System(ARTS), a treatment planning system developed by the FDS team,the risk of second primary cancer was estimated over two treatment plans for a patient with pancreatic cancer. Based on the second primary cancer risk, the two plans were compared. It was found that,kidney and gall-bladder had higher risk to develop second primary cancer. A better plan was chosen by the analysis of second primary cancer risk. The results showed that this risk estimation method we developed could be used to evaluate treatment plans. (authors)

  14. Usable Multi-factor Authentication and Risk-based Authorization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    platforms (Apple iOS and Google Android), a hybrid application development platform was used so that must of the user interaction and security...instantiated as an HTML mockup, including risk communication and anti- phishing features. We conducted heuristic evaluation of this design with two... phishing attacks. At enrollment time, users select an image to be displayed there. If the image is not displayed, the login screen may be fake and users

  15. Increasing Effectiveness and Efficiency Through Risk-Based Deployments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Shaw and Henry McKay, both University of Chicago professors, began using maps to understand juvenile delinquency better in Chicago, IL.36 In the...André-Michel Guerry’s Ordonnateur Statistique: The First Statistical Calculator?,” The American Statistician 66, no. 3 (August 1, 2012): 195–200...micro or macro levels using basic inferential statistics .”91 5. Protecting Civil Rights and Liberties It is also important to note that a risk

  16. Reviewing the development of an artificial intelligence based risk program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.; Hinton, M.F.

    1985-01-01

    A successful application of nonconventional programming methods has been achieved in computer-assisted probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The event tree sequence importance calculator, SQUIMP, provides for prompted data entry, generic expansion, on-line pruning, boolean reductions, and importance factor selection. SQUIMP employs constructs typically found in artificial intelligence (AI) programs. The development history of SQUIMP is outlined and its internal structure described as background for a discussion on the applicability of symbolic programming methods in PRA

  17. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements.

  18. Menopause management: a cardiovascular risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, C J; Farrell, E

    2010-08-01

    Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) remains the gold standard for the management of menopausal symptoms; however, HRT use has declined due to concerns over possible adverse side-effects. Approaches to menopause management are continually being revised and these extend beyond the control of recognized menopausal symptoms to encompass wider aspects of menopausal women's health. Hypertension and associated cardiovascular risk are particularly important unmet needs in postmenopausal women, especially in the Asia-Pacific region which has a rapidly aging population and bears around half of the global burden of cardiovascular disease, two-thirds of which has been attributed to elevated blood pressure. As first point of contact for women with menopausal symptoms, gynecologists play a gatekeeper role in assessing women's health, providing appropriate lifestyle counseling, and, where appropriate, implementing treatment or referral to relevant specialists. This paper, with contributions by gynecologists and cardiologists from Asia Pacific and beyond, summarizes available evidence and provides a treatment algorithm that employs a flexible blood pressure classification strategy to assist physicians in their decision-making for the individualized management of menopausal symptoms in women with low, moderate and high cardiovascular risk, and also for women with diabetes. Individualized HRT according to cardiovascular risk may yield improvements in cardiovascular health, as well as managing menopausal symptoms.

  19. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements

  20. Epidemic dynamics on a risk-based evolving social network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antwi, Shadrack; Shaw, Leah

    2013-03-01

    Social network models have been used to study how behavior affects the dynamics of an infection in a population. Motivated by HIV, we consider how a trade-off between benefits and risks of sexual connections determine network structure and disease prevalence. We define a stochastic network model with formation and breaking of links as changes in sexual contacts. Each node has an intrinsic benefit its neighbors derive from connecting to it. Nodes' infection status is not apparent to others, but nodes with more connections (higher degree) are assumed more likely to be infected. The probability to form and break links is determined by a payoff computed from the benefit and degree-dependent risk. The disease is represented by a SI (susceptible-infected) model. We study network and epidemic evolution via Monte Carlo simulation and analytically predict the behavior with a heterogeneous mean field approach. The dependence of network connectivity and infection threshold on parameters is determined, and steady state degree distribution and epidemic levels are obtained. We also study a situation where system-wide infection levels alter perception of risk and cause nodes to adjust their behavior. This is a case of an adaptive network, where node status feeds back to change network geometry.

  1. A risk-based review of Instrument Air systems at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeMoss, G.; Lofgren, E.; Rothleder, B.; Villeran, M.; Ruger, C.

    1990-01-01

    The broad objective of this analysis was to provide risk-based information to help focus regulatory actions related to Instrument Air (IA) systems at operating nuclear power plants. We first created an extensive data base of summarized and characterized IA-related events that gave a qualitative indication of the nature and severity of these events. Additionally, this data base was used to calculate the frequencies of certain events, which were used in the risk analysis. The risk analysis consisted of reviewing published PRAs and NRC Accident Sequence Precursor reports for IA-initiated accident sequences, IA interactions with frontline systems, and IA-related risk significant events. Sensitivity calculations were performed when possible. Generically, IA was found to contribute less to total risk than many safety systems; however, specific design weaknesses in safety systems, non-safety systems, and the IA system were found to be significant in risk. 22 refs., 13 figs., 24 tabs

  2. The Research on Safety Management Information System of Railway Passenger Based on Risk Management Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wenmin; Jia, Yuanhua

    2018-01-01

    Based on the risk management theory and the PDCA cycle model, requirements of the railway passenger transport safety production is analyzed, and the establishment of the security risk assessment team is proposed to manage risk by FTA with Delphi from both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The safety production committee is also established to accomplish performance appraisal, which is for further ensuring the correctness of risk management results, optimizing the safety management business processes and improving risk management capabilities. The basic framework and risk information database of risk management information system of railway passenger transport safety are designed by Ajax, Web Services and SQL technologies. The system realizes functions about risk management, performance appraisal and data management, and provides an efficient and convenient information management platform for railway passenger safety manager.

  3. Novel two-tiered approach of ecological risk assessment for pesticide mixtures based on joint effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Dayong; Mao, Haichen; Lv, Huichao; Zheng, Yong; Peng, Conghu; Hou, Shaogang

    2018-02-01

    Ecological risk assessments for mixtures have attracted considerable attention. In this study, 38 pesticides in the real environment were taken as objects and their toxicities to different organisms from three trophic levels were employed to assess the ecological risk of the mixture. The first tier assessment was based on the CA effect and the obtained sum of risk quotients (SRQ species-CA ) were 3.06-9.22. The second tier assessment was based on non-CA effects and the calculated SRQ species-TU are 5.37-9.29 using joint effects (TU sum ) as modified coefficients, which is higher than SRQ species-CA and indicates that ignoring joint effects might run the risk of underestimating the actual impact of pesticide mixtures. Due to the influences of synergistic and antagonistic effects, risk contribution of components to mixture risks based on non-CA effects are different from those based on the CA effect. Moreover, it was found that the top 8 dominating components explained 95.5%-99.8% of mixture risks in this study. The dominating components are similar in the two tiers for a given species. Accordingly, a novel two-tiered approach was proposed to assess the ecological risks of mixtures based on joint effects. This study provides new insights for ecological risk assessments with the consideration of joint effects of components in the pesticide mixtures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

    2018-04-01

    Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local

  5. The Two C”s of the Risk-Based Approach to Goal based Standards: Challenges and Caveats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Zachariadis, Panos

    2007-01-01

    industry has begun to move from a reactive to a proactive approach to safety through “Formal Safety Assessment” (FSA) and “Goal Based Standards” (GBS). FSA was introduced by the IMO as “a rational and systematic process for accessing the risk related to maritime safety and the protection of the marine...... environment and for evaluating the costs and benefits of IMO’s options for reducing these risks”. The recent GBS approach aims to be another proactive instrument, and there has been recent discussion in the IMO on the possible links between FSA and GBS. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used......, but confusing to many, notions such as Risk Based Rulemaking vs. Risk Based Design, and IMO's GBS Traditional Approach vs. Safety Level Approach, and the implications of their use, or misuse, to future ship rulemaking, design and safety. The paper elaborates on some identified weaknesses of the risk based...

  6. Risk-based environmental assessment for uranium mines – Some Canadian and Australian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phaneuf, M.; McKee, M.; Woods, P.

    2014-01-01

    The Risk-Based Approach to Environmental Assessment in Australia: • This has emerged over the last 2 decades; • Currently usually based around the Australian and New Zealand standard (AS4360:1999) for risk assessment: • Potential impact events; • Inherent risk levels (e.g. low, moderate) using a matrix approach; • Design and operational control measures; • Residual risk levels; • Outcomes to be achieved; • Outcomes measurement criteria - • Leading to ‘compliance’ monitoring; • Leading indicator criteria - • Leading to ‘early warning’ monitoring

  7. RIMAP demonstration project. Pat. 1: Risk based life management of piping system in power plant Heilbronn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bareiss, J.; Puck, P.; Matschecko, B.; Jovanovic, A.; Balos, D.; Perunicic

    2003-01-01

    In the framework of EU project RIMAP [1] a new European Guideline for optimized risk based maintenance and inspection planning of industrial plants (RBLM - Risk Based Life Management) is being developed. The RIMAP project consists of the three clustered projects: development (RTD), demonstration (DEMO) and thematic network (TN). Current work and future, planned work in RIMAP demonstration project on applications of the RIMAP methodology in power plants are presented briefly in the first part of the paper. Also presented in the paper are the results of a preliminary analysis of piping system in power plant Heilbronn using the concept of risk-based monitoring as part of overall concept of risk-based life management. Shortly the following issues are discussed in the paper: identification of critical components, application of a multilevel risk analysis (..from ''screening'' to ''detailed analysis''), determination of PoF - Probability of Failure, determination of COF - Consequence of Failure and optimation of inspection and maintenance plan. (orig.)

  8. A stable systemic risk ranking in China's banking sector: Based on principal component analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Libing; Xiao, Binqing; Yu, Honghai; You, Qixing

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we compare five popular systemic risk rankings, and apply principal component analysis (PCA) model to provide a stable systemic risk ranking for the Chinese banking sector. Our empirical results indicate that five methods suggest vastly different systemic risk rankings for the same bank, while the combined systemic risk measure based on PCA provides a reliable ranking. Furthermore, according to factor loadings of the first component, PCA combined ranking is mainly based on fundamentals instead of market price data. We clearly find that price-based rankings are not as practical a method as fundamentals-based ones. This PCA combined ranking directly shows systemic risk contributions of each bank for banking supervision purpose and reminds banks to prevent and cope with the financial crisis in advance.

  9. Biomonitoring-based risk assessment for hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aylward, Lesa L; Hays, Sean M

    2011-06-01

    Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) is a brominated flame retardant compound that has been the subject of recent interest and risk assessment efforts due to its detection in a variety of environmental media and in human biological matrices. Because the exposure pathways for HBCD may be varied and exposure estimation uncertain, biomonitoring for HBCD in humans shows promise as a means of reflecting integrated human exposures to HBCD with lower uncertainty than through estimation of external exposures via multiple pathways. Data from numerous biomonitoring studies of HBCD over the past decade indicate that the central tendency of lipid-adjusted serum and human milk concentrations is approximately 1ng/g lipid, with upper bound levels of approximately 20 ng/g lipid. Recent risk assessment evaluations from Health Canada and the European Union have identified points of departure of 10 and 20mg/kg day, respectively, from rat repeated dose studies. The corresponding measured or estimated lipid-adjusted tissue concentrations in the laboratory animals at these points of departure range from 120,000 to 190,000 ng/g lipid. In comparison to these concentrations, the biomonitored human serum and milk concentrations indicate margins of exposure (MOEs) of 6000 to more than 100,000, which are greatly in excess of target MOE values. The use of internal dose measures (both from measurements of tissue concentrations in animal toxicology studies and from human biomonitoring studies) provides risk managers with highly relevant exposure information that is less uncertain than estimated external doses. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  10. Further validation of the Internet-based Dementia Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jason; Blehar, Justin; Anderson, Allan; Gross, Alden L

    2014-01-01

    Most approaches to the detection of presymptomatic or prodromal Alzheimer's disease require the costly collection and analysis of biological samples or neuroimaging measurements. The Dementia Risk Assessment (DRA) was developed to facilitate this detection by collecting self-report and proxy-report of dementia risk variables and episodic memory performance on a free Internet website. We now report two validation studies. In Study 1, 130 community-residing older adults seeking memory screening at senior health fairs were tested using the Mini-Cog, and were then observed while taking the DRA. They were compared to a demographically-matched subsample from our anonymous Internet sample. Participants seeking memory screening had more dementia risk factors and obtained lower scores on the DRA's recognition memory test (RMT) than their Internet controls. In addition, those who failed the Mini-Cog obtained much lower scores on the RMT than those who passed the Mini-Cog. In Study 2, 160 older adults seeking evaluation of cognitive difficulties took the DRA prior to diagnostic evaluations at outpatient dementia clinics. Patients who ultimately received the diagnosis of a dementia syndrome scored significantly lower on the RMT than those diagnosed with other conditions or deemed normal. Lower education, family history of dementia, presence of hypercholesterolemia and diabetes, and memory test score distinguished the dementia and no-dementia groups with around 82% accuracy. In addition, score on the RMT correlated highly with scores on other instruments widely used to detect cognitive decline. These findings support the concurrent validity of the DRA for detecting prevalent cognitive impairment. Prospective studies of cognitively normal persons who subsequently develop dementia will be necessary to establish its predictive validity.

  11. Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk Based Inspection analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovhus, Torben Lund; Hillier, Elizabeth; Andersen, Erlend S.

    . Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion (MIC) is a degradation mechanism that has received increased attention from corrosion engineers and asset operators in the past decades. In this paper, the most recent models that have been developed in order to assess the impact of MIC on asset integrity will be presented...... and an extensive up-to date literature study. The parameters are discussed and subsequently combined in a novel procedure that allows assessment of MIC in a RBI analysis. The procedure is sub-divided into one screening step and a detailed assessment, which fits the recommended approach to assess risk in a RBI...

  12. Diagnosis-Based Risk Adjustment for Medicare Capitation Payments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P.; Pope, Gregory C.; Iezzoni, Lisa I.; Ayanian, John Z.; Bates, David W.; Burstin, Helen; Ash, Arlene S.

    1996-01-01

    Using 1991-92 data for a 5-percent Medicare sample, we develop, estimate, and evaluate risk-adjustment models that utilize diagnostic information from both inpatient and ambulatory claims to adjust payments for aged and disabled Medicare enrollees. Hierarchical coexisting conditions (HCC) models achieve greater explanatory power than diagnostic cost group (DCG) models by taking account of multiple coexisting medical conditions. Prospective models predict average costs of individuals with chronic conditions nearly as well as concurrent models. All models predict medical costs far more accurately than the current health maintenance organization (HMO) payment formula. PMID:10172666

  13. Risk-based Comparative Study of Fluid Power Pitch Concepts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liniger, Jesper; Pedersen, Henrik Clemmensen; N. Soltani, Mohsen

    2017-01-01

    Proper functioning of the pitch system is essential to both normal operation and safety critical shut down of modern multi megawatt wind turbines. Several studies on field failure rates for such turbines show that pitch systems are a major contributor to failures which entails an increased risk....... Thus, more reliable and safe concepts are needed. A review of patents and patent applications covering fluid power pitch concepts, reveals that many propose closed-type hydraulic systems. This paper proposes a closed-type concept with a bootstrap reservoir. In contrary to a conventional system where...

  14. Bio-based supply chains : risks and institutional arrangements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peerlings, J.H.M.; Ge, L.; Galen, van M.A.

    2012-01-01

    One of the challenges for the bio-based economy is to achieve production efficiency that can compete with fossil-based products. New scale-efficient product supply chains have to be created, or current supply chains have to be amended to incorporate the biomass supply chain. These new supply chains

  15. FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AZARM,M.A.; TRAVIS,R.J.

    1999-11-14

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions.

  16. FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AZARM, M.A.; TRAVIS, R.J.

    1999-01-01

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions

  17. Individual-based model for radiation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnova, O.

    A mathematical model is developed which enables one to predict the life span probability for mammals exposed to radiation. It relates statistical biometric functions with statistical and dynamic characteristics of an organism's critical system. To calculate the dynamics of the latter, the respective mathematical model is used too. This approach is applied to describe the effects of low level chronic irradiation on mice when the hematopoietic system (namely, thrombocytopoiesis) is the critical one. For identification of the joint model, experimental data on hematopoiesis in nonirradiated and irradiated mice, as well as on mortality dynamics of those in the absence of radiation are utilized. The life span probability and life span shortening predicted by the model agree with corresponding experimental data. Modeling results show the significance of ac- counting the variability of the individual radiosensitivity of critical system cells when estimating the radiation risk. These findings are corroborated by clinical data on persons involved in the elimination of the Chernobyl catastrophe after- effects. All this makes it feasible to use the model for radiation risk assessments for cosmonauts and astronauts on long-term missions such as a voyage to Mars or a lunar colony. In this case the model coefficients have to be determined by making use of the available data for humans. Scenarios for the dynamics of dose accumulation during space flights should also be taken into account.

  18. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, J.A.

    1997-01-01

    Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station has used PRA-derived risk insights for about 10 years now. The plant originally started applying PRA modeling to an auxiliary feedwater system during the initial licensing phases of the plant, and as a result of that, they were able to work with the NRC and apply some graded quality requirements to that particular system. There was a third redundant auxiliary feedwater pump, and they now can treat that system as partially safety related and partially non-safety related. So it was an advance for Palo Verde at that time to be able to make decisions with a PRA and they began learning how to use those techniques. After completing the IPE it became natural for the plant to make a transition into other areas at the plant to look for areas where the insights gained from PRA could be applied into their decision-making processes. Those that the plant embarked upon initially were areas where they could gain operational risk assessment insights. The author goes on to discuss experiences gained in using these techniques to better assess the safety of operations within the plant. In addition he offers comments on areas which need further development and research to make them more applicable to a plant by plant basis

  19. Statistically based uncertainty assessments in nuclear risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, F.W.; Diegert, K.V.; Easterling, R.G.

    1987-01-01

    Over the last decade, the problems of estimation and uncertainty assessment in probabilistics risk assessment (PRAs) have been addressed in a variety of NRC and industry-sponsored projects. These problems have received attention because of a recognition that major uncertainties in risk estimation exist, which can be reduced by collecting more and better data and other information, and because of a recognition that better methods for assessing these uncertainties are needed. In particular, a clear understanding of the nature and magnitude of various sources of uncertainty is needed to facilitate descision-making on possible plant changes and research options. Recent PRAs have employed methods of probability propagation, sometimes involving the use of Bayes Theorem, and intended to formalize the use of ''engineering judgment'' or ''expert opinion.'' All sources, or feelings, of uncertainty are expressed probabilistically, so that uncertainty analysis becomes simply a matter of probability propagation. Alternatives to forcing a probabilistic framework at all stages of a PRA are a major concern in this paper, however

  20. Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

  1. The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

    2013-01-01

    AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

  2. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jia; Hong, Bei; Jiang, Xuepeng; Chen, Qinghua

    2017-05-01

    With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  3. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui Jia

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  4. Development of the Risk-Based Inspection Techniques and Pilot Plant Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.

    1997-01-01

    Risk-based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants. System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the probabilistic risk analysis or probabilistic safety analysis developed to meet the individual plant evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for maintenance rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low-risk significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of pilot plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates that safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. The reduction in inspection reduces the person-rem exposure resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publication by the ASME CRTD

  5. Fusion reactor passive safety and ignitor risk-based regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zucchetti, M.

    1995-01-01

    Passive design features are more reliable than operator action of successful operation of active safety systems. Passive safety has usually been adopted for fission. The achievement of an inventory-based passive safety is difficult if the fusion reactor uses neutronic reactions. Ignitor is a high-magnetic field tokamak designed to study the physics of ignited plasmas. The safety goal for Ignitor is classification as a mobility-based passively safe machine

  6. A risk-based approach to health criteria for radon indoors -report on a WHO initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinhaeusler, F.

    1994-01-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO), Regional Office for Europe, organised a meeting of a working group on indoor air quality in Eilat, Israel, from 28 March to 4 April 1993. The aim was to develop a risk-based approach to health criteria for radon indoors. The Group reviewed the latest epidemiological data from occupational and non-occupational radon exposure, animal experiments and dosimetry. The Group issued 14 conclusions and 23 recommendations on radon related risk to health, on risk management and risk communication. In summary, radon was confirmed as a human carcinogen. Indoor radon exposures resulting in individual risks exceeding 10 -3 per year are to be considered as severe and risk reduction programmes implemented. Guidance on risk management and communication is offered to national authorities. (author)

  7. Comprehensive risk assessment method of catastrophic accident based on complex network properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Zhen; Pang, Jun; Shen, Xiaohong

    2017-09-01

    On the macro level, the structural properties of the network and the electrical characteristics of the micro components determine the risk of cascading failures. And the cascading failures, as a process with dynamic development, not only the direct risk but also potential risk should be considered. In this paper, comprehensively considered the direct risk and potential risk of failures based on uncertain risk analysis theory and connection number theory, quantified uncertain correlation by the node degree and node clustering coefficient, then established a comprehensive risk indicator of failure. The proposed method has been proved by simulation on the actual power grid. Modeling a network according to the actual power grid, and verified the rationality of the proposed method.

  8. A Bayesian network model for predicting type 2 diabetes risk based on electronic health records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jiang; Liu, Yan; Zeng, Xu; Zhang, Wu; Mei, Zhen

    2017-07-01

    An extensive, in-depth study of diabetes risk factors (DBRF) is of crucial importance to prevent (or reduce) the chance of suffering from type 2 diabetes (T2D). Accumulation of electronic health records (EHRs) makes it possible to build nonlinear relationships between risk factors and diabetes. However, the current DBRF researches mainly focus on qualitative analyses, and the inconformity of physical examination items makes the risk factors likely to be lost, which drives us to study the novel machine learning approach for risk model development. In this paper, we use Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the relationship between physical examination information and T2D, and to quantify the link between risk factors and T2D. Furthermore, with the quantitative analyses of DBRF, we adopt EHR and propose a machine learning approach based on BNs to predict the risk of T2D. The experiments demonstrate that our approach can lead to better predictive performance than the classical risk model.

  9. Risk-Based Decision-Making and the Use of Operational Risk Management in Developing a Course of Action (COA) for the Joint Task Force (JTF)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Faherty, Denis

    2003-01-01

    Uncertainty and risk are inherent in the nature of military action. The success of any joint military operation is based upon a willingness to balance risk with opportunity in taking bold, decisive action necessary to triumph in war...

  10. Bioassay-based risk assessment of hazardous waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Brown, K.W.; He, L.Y. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-12-31

    Microbial bioassays have been used to assess the genotoxic hazard at more than 30 different hazardous waste sites. Environmental samples were extracted with dichloromethane and methanol, and the resulting residue tested using GC/MS analysis as well as the Salmonella Microsomal and E. coli Prophage Induction assays. At a munitions wastewater contaminated site, there was no correlation between mutagenicity in bacteria, and the risk as estimated from chemical analysis data of trinitrotoluene. Samples 202 and 204 from a coal gasification site contained 72 mg/kg and 9 mg/kg benzo(a)pyrene, whereas the mutagenic responses of these samples were 231 net revertants/mg and 902 revertants/mg, respectively. The data suggest that microbial bioassays provide a valuable tool for monitoring the interactions of the components of a complex mixture.

  11. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  12. Prioritization of motor operated valves based on risk importances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Weidenhamer, G.H.

    1994-01-01

    The plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can be a potentially useful and powerful tool for helping to define an effective response to GL 89-10. The plant PRA can be used to prioritize the Motor Operated Valves (MOV) dynamic test. The plant PRA can also be used to determine test schedules for the MOVs. In order for the PRA to be validly used to respond to GL 89-10, various issues need to be validly addressed. Eleven issues are specifically identified and responses to these issues are outlined. The issues of joint MOV importance, PRA truncation, and validation of the proposed approach are specifically highlighted and more detailed response considerations are described. As in all PRA applications, sensitivity studies and uncertainty considerations should be incorporated in the PRA evaluations. 4 refs, 3 tabs

  13. Hanford Mission Plan risk-based prioritization methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Madden, M.S.; Pyron, N.M.; Butcher, J.L.

    1994-08-01

    Sites across the US Department (DOE) complex recognize the critical need for a systematic method for prioritizing among their work scope activities. Here at the Hanford Site, Pacific Northwest Laboratory and Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) conducted preliminary research into techniques to meet this need and assist managers in making financial resource allocation decisions. This research is a subtask of the risk management task of the Hanford Mission Plan as described in the WHC Integrated Planning Work Breakdown Structure 1.8.2 Fiscal Year 1994 Work Plan. The research team investigated prioritization techniques used at other DOE sites and compared them with the Priority Planning Grid (PPG), a tool used at Hanford. The authors concluded that the PPG could be used for prioritization of resource allocation, but it needed to be revised to better reflect the Site's priorities and objectives. The revised PPG was tested with three Hanford programs, the PPG was modified, and updated procedures were prepared

  14. Risk-informed, performance-based safety-security interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mrowca, B.; Eltawila, F.

    2012-01-01

    Safety-security interface is a term that is used as part of the commercial nuclear power security framework to promote coordination of the many potentially adverse interactions between plant security and plant safety. Its object is to prevent the compromise of either. It is also used to describe the concept of building security into a plant's design similar to the long standing practices used for safety therefore reducing the complexity of the operational security while maintaining or enhancing overall security. With this in mind, the concept of safety-security interface, when fully implemented, can influence a plant's design, operation and maintenance. It brings the approach use for plant security to one that is similar to that used for safety. Also, as with safety, the application of risk-informed techniques to fully implement and integrate safety and security is important. Just as designers and operators have applied these techniques to enhance and focus safety, these same techniques can be applied to security to not only enhance and focus the security but also to aid in the implementation of effective techniques to address the safety-security interfaces. Implementing this safety-security concept early within the design process can prevent or reduce security vulnerabilities through low cost solutions that often become difficult and expensive to retrofit later in the design and/or post construction period. These security considerations address many of the same issues as safety in ensuring that the response of equipment and plant personnel are adequate. That is, both safety and security are focused on reaching safe shutdown and preventing radiological release. However, the initiation of challenges and the progression of actions in response these challenges and even the definitions of safe shutdown can be considerably different. This paper explores the techniques and limitations that are employed to fully implement a risk-informed, safety-security interface

  15. Risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yu; Lian, Xin-Ying; Jiang, Yong-Hai; Xi, Bei-Dou; He, Xiao-Song

    2017-11-01

    Agricultural regions are a significant source of groundwater pesticide pollution. To ensure that agricultural regions with a significantly high risk of groundwater pesticide contamination are properly managed, a risk-based ranking method related to groundwater pesticide contamination is needed. In the present paper, a risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions was established. The method encompasses 3 phases, including indicator selection, characterization, and classification. In the risk ranking index system employed here, 17 indicators involving the physicochemical properties, environmental behavior characteristics, pesticide application methods, and inherent vulnerability of groundwater in the agricultural region were selected. The boundary of each indicator was determined using K-means cluster analysis based on a survey of a typical agricultural region and the physical and chemical properties of 300 typical pesticides. The total risk characterization was calculated by multiplying the risk value of each indicator, which could effectively avoid the subjectivity of index weight calculation and identify the main factors associated with the risk. The results indicated that the risk for groundwater pesticide contamination from agriculture in a region could be ranked into 4 classes from low to high risk. This method was applied to an agricultural region in Jiangsu Province, China, and it showed that this region had a relatively high risk for groundwater contamination from pesticides, and that the pesticide application method was the primary factor contributing to the relatively high risk. The risk ranking method was determined to be feasible, valid, and able to provide reference data related to the risk management of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:1052-1059. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  16. The case for risk-based premiums in public health insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zweifel, Peter; Breuer, Michael

    2006-04-01

    Uniform, risk-independent insurance premiums are accepted as part of 'managed competition' in health care. However, they are not compatible with optimality of health insurance contracts in the presence of both ex ante and ex post moral hazard. They have adverse effects on insurer behaviour even if risk adjustment is taken into account. Risk-based premiums combined with means-tested, tax-financed transfers are advocated as an alternative.

  17. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  18. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: Quantitatively evaluate the risk and justify changes based on objective risk arguments; Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The US NRC Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  19. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of Technical Specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: quantitatively evaluate the risk impact and justify changes based on objective risk arguments. Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  20. Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas Based on Spatial Analytics and Social Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Costas Armenakis

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood maps alone are not sufficient to determine and assess the risks to people, property, infrastructure, and services due to a flood event. Simply put, the risk is almost zero to minimum if the flooded region is “empty” (i.e., unpopulated, has not properties, no industry, no infrastructure, and no socio-economic activity. High spatial resolution Earth Observation (EO data can contribute to the generation and updating of flood risk maps based on several aspects including population, economic development, and critical infrastructure, which can enhance a city’s flood mitigation and preparedness planning. In this case study for the Don River watershed, Toronto, the flood risk is determined and flood risk index maps are generated by implementing a methodology for estimating risk based on the geographic coverage of the flood hazard, vulnerability of people, and the exposure of large building structures to flood water. Specifically, the spatial flood risk index maps have been generated through analytical spatial modeling which takes into account the areas in which a flood hazard is expected to occur, the terrain’s morphological characteristics, socio-economic parameters based on demographic data, and the density of large building complexes. Generated flood risk maps are verified through visual inspection with 3D city flood maps. Findings illustrate that areas of higher flood risk coincide with areas of high flood hazard and social and building exposure vulnerability.

  1. Risk Analysis Method Based on FMEA for Transmission Line in Lightning Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Yuan WANG

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Failure rate of transmission line and reliability of power system are significantly affected by Lightning meteorological factor. In view of the complexity and variability of Lightning meteorological factors, this paper presents lightning trip-out rate model of transmission line in considering distribution of ground flash density and lightning day hours. Meanwhile, presents a failure rate model of transmission line in different condition, and a risk analysis method for transmission line considering multiple risk factors based on risk quantification. This method takes Lightning meteorological factor as the main evaluation standard, and establishes risk degree evaluation system for transmission line including another five evaluation standard. Put forward the risk indicators by quantify the risk factors based on experience date of transmission line in service. Based on the risk indexes comprehensive evaluation is conducted, and the evaluation result closer to practice is achieved, providing basis for transmission line risk warning and maintenance strategy. Through the risk analysis for 220 kV transmission line in a certain power supply bureau, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated.

  2. Strengthening air traffic safety management by moving from outcome-based towards risk-based evaluation of runway incursions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroeve, Sybert H.; Som, Pradip; Doorn, Bas A. van; Bakker, G.J.

    2016-01-01

    Current safety management of aerodrome operations uses judgements of severity categories to evaluate runway incursions. Incident data show a small minority of severe incursions and a large majority of less severe incursions. We show that these severity judgements are mainly based upon the outcomes of runway incursions, in particular on the closest distances attained. As such, the severity-based evaluation leads to coincidental safety management feedback, wherein causes and risk implications of runway incursions are not well considered. In this paper we present a new framework for the evaluation of runway incursions, which effectively uses all runway incursions, which judges same types of causes similarly, and which structures causes and risk implications. The framework is based on risks of scenarios associated with the initiation of runway incursions. As a basis an inventory of scenarios is provided, which can represent almost all runway incursions involving a conflict with an aircraft. A main step in the framework is the assessment of the conditional probability of a collision given a runway incursion scenario. This can be effectively achieved for large sets of scenarios by agent-based dynamic risk modelling. The results provide detailed feedback on risks of runway incursion scenarios, thus enabling effective safety management. - Highlights: • Current evaluation of runway incursions is primarily based on their outcomes. • A new framework assesses collision risk given initiation of runway incursions. • Agent-based dynamic risk modelling can evaluate the risks of many scenarios. • A developed scenario inventory can represent almost all runway incursions. • The framework provides detailed feedback to safety management.

  3. Risk-based prioritization and its application to inspection of valves in the water sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marlow, David R.; Beale, David J.; Mashford, John S.

    2012-01-01

    Isolation valves facilitate the effective operation and maintenance of water supply networks, but their sheer number presents a significant asset management challenge. If left unmanaged, valve reliability issues can become widespread. Inspections provide a means of increasing reliability, but a survey of industry practices indicated that some utilities did not have such a program in place. To improve asset management and reduce business risk exposure, such utilities need an effective means of commencing inspection programs. From a theoretical perspective, risk concepts provide a means of optimizing maintenance effort. However, in the face of poor data on reliability or condition, pragmatic approaches to risk-based prioritization are needed. One such approach, risk indexing, is considered in this paper. Background on the research is presented, including the application of risk-based inspection concepts within the water sector. The development of a risk indexing scheme is then investigated, drawing on two industry workshops in which the analytical hierarchy process was used to set relative weights. It is concluded that risk indexing provides the basis for a rational prioritization process in the absence of data on valve reliability or condition. - Highlights: ► Importance of valve inspections to water network reliability. ► Theoretical perspective of risk concepts that provide a means of optimizing inspection programs. ► Pragmatic approaches to prioritization in light of poor valve data. ► Development and assessment of a risk index scheme. ► Use of the analytical hierarchy process to set relative weights of risk factors.

  4. Risk assessment of atherosclerotic plaques based on global biomechanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melchionna, Simone; Amati, Giorgio; Bernaschi, Massimo; Bisson, Mauro; Succi, Sauro; Mitsouras, Dimitrios; Rybicki, Frank J

    2013-09-01

    We present the results of a computational study of the entire left coronary system simulated both at Newtonian level and at red blood cell resolution for a sizeable number of physiological conditions. We analyze the cardiovascular implications of stenotic plaques and show that the standard clinical criterion for surgical or percutaneous intervention, based on the fractional flow reserve (FFR), is significantly affected by system-dependent, local hemodynamic factors. A refined version, based on the new notion of local FFR response to stenotic growth, and accounting for statistical uncertainties due to flow heterogeneity, is suggested and illustrated. Copyright © 2013 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Data analyses and modelling for risk based monitoring of mycotoxins in animal feed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ine van der Fels-Klerx, H.J.; Adamse, Paulien; Punt, Ans; Asselt, van Esther D.

    2018-01-01

    Following legislation, European Member States should have multi-annual control programs for contaminants, such as for mycotoxins, in feed and food. These programs need to be risk based implying the checks are regular and proportional to the estimated risk for animal and human health. This study

  6. Learning Risk-Taking and Coping with Uncertainty through Experiential, Team-Based Entrepreneurship Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arpiainen, Riitta-Liisa; Kurczewska, Agnieszka

    2017-01-01

    This empirical study investigates how students' perceptions of risk-taking and coping with uncertainty change while they are exposed to experience-based entrepreneurship education. The aim of the study is twofold. First, the authors set out to identify the dynamics of entrepreneurial thinking among students experiencing risk and uncertainty while…

  7. 75 FR 2723 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-15

    ...-based pricing notice to a consumer when the creditor uses a consumer report to grant or extend credit to... consumers to combat identity theft, increase the accuracy of consumer reports, and allow consumers to... consumer report is often used in evaluating the risk posed by the consumer. Creditors that engage in risk...

  8. Dutch home-based pre-reading intervention with children at familial risk of dyslexia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Otterloo, S.G.; van der Leij, A.

    2009-01-01

    Children (5 and 6 years old, n = 30) at familial risk of dyslexia received a home-based intervention that focused on phoneme awareness and letter knowledge in the year prior to formal reading instruction. The children were compared to a no-training at-risk control group (n = 27), which was selected

  9. Early home-based intervention in the Netherlands for children at familial risk of dyslexia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Otterloo, S.G.; van der Leij, A.; Henrichs, L.F.

    2009-01-01

    Dutch children at higher familial risk of reading disability received a home-based intervention programme before formal reading instruction started to investigate whether this would reduce the risk of dyslexia. The experimental group (n=23) received a specific training in phoneme awareness and

  10. Risk-Based School Inspections: Impact of Targeted Inspection Approaches on Dutch Secondary Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehren, Melanie C.; Shackleton, Nichola

    2016-01-01

    In most countries, publicly funded schools are held accountable to one inspectorate and are judged against agreed national standards. Many inspectorates of education have recently moved towards more proportional risk-based inspection models, targeting high-risk schools for visits, while schools with satisfactory student attainment levels are…

  11. Dutch Home-Based Pre-Reading Intervention with Children at Familial Risk of Dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Otterloo, Sandra G.; van der Leij, Aryan

    2009-01-01

    Children (5 and 6 years old, n = 30) at familial risk of dyslexia received a home-based intervention that focused on phoneme awareness and letter knowledge in the year prior to formal reading instruction. The children were compared to a no-training at-risk control group (n = 27), which was selected a year earlier. After training, we found a small…

  12. Early Home-Based Intervention in the Netherlands for Children at Familial Risk of Dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Otterloo, Sandra G.; van der Leij, Aryan; Henrichs, Lotte F.

    2009-01-01

    Dutch children at higher familial risk of reading disability received a home-based intervention programme before formal reading instruction started to investigate whether this would reduce the risk of dyslexia. The experimental group (n = 23) received a specific training in phoneme awareness and letter knowledge. A control group (n = 25) received…

  13. Risk and Benefit Perceptions of Mobile Phone and Base Station Technology in Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleef, van E.; Fischer, A.R.H.; Khan, M.; Frewer, L.J.

    2010-01-01

    Research in developed countries showed that many citizens perceive that radio signals transmitted by mobile phones and base stations represent potential health risks. Less research has been conducted in developing countries focused on citizen perceptions of risks and benefits, despite the recent and

  14. Using the Clinical Interview and Curriculum Based Measurement to Examine Risk Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsburg, Herbert P.; Lee, Young-Sun; Pappas, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the power of the computer guided clinical interview (CI) and new curriculum based measurement (CBM) measures to identify and help children at risk of low mathematics achievement. We use data from large numbers of children in Kindergarten through Grade 3 to investigate the construct validity of CBM risk categories. The basic…

  15. Recurrence risk of low Apgar score among term singletons: a population-based cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, Sabine; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Mol, Ben W. J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.

    2014-01-01

    To examine the risk of recurrence of low Apgar score in a subsequent term singleton pregnancy. Population-based cohort study. The Netherlands. A total of 190,725 women with two subsequent singleton term live births between 1999 and 2007. We calculated the recurrence risk of low Apgar score after

  16. Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Ping

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

  17. A CALCIUM-BASED INVASION RISK ASSESSMENT FOR ZEBRA AND QUAGGA MUSSELS (DREISSENA SPP.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    We used calcium concentration data from over 3000 stream and river sites across the contiguous United States to classify ecoregions relative to their risk for Dreissena species invasion. We defined risk based on calcium concentrations as: very low (< 12 mg L−1), low (12–20 mg L−1...

  18. The process of developing policy based on global environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1995-01-01

    A brief presentation is given on developing policy based on a global environmental risk assessment. The author looks at the global warming issue as if it were a formal problem in risk assessment. He uses that framework to make one or two suggestions as to how the interaction of policy and research might evolve as the climate convention progresses

  19. Prevalence and risk factors for gender based violence during ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Gender Based Violence (GBV) is a pervasive and systemic public health problem affecting pregnant women but there is paucity of data on the magnitude of GBV during pregnancy and the factors associated with it in Kenya, particularly in areas where the prevalence of GBV in the general population is ...

  20. Automated analysis of security requirements through risk-based argumentation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yu, Yijun; Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; Tun, Thein Tan; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Nuseibeh, Bashar

    2015-01-01

    Computer-based systems are increasingly being exposed to evolving security threats, which often reveal new vulnerabilities. A formal analysis of the evolving threats is difficult due to a number of practical considerations such as incomplete knowledge about the design, limited information about