WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk aversion causing

  1. Risk Aversion and Emotions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, Y.; Noussair, C.N.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: We consider the relationship between emotions and decision-making under risk. Specifically, we examine the emotional correlates of risk-averse decisions. In our experiment, individuals' facial expressions are monitored with facereading software, as they are presented with risky lotteries.

  2. Risk Aversion and Job Mobility

    OpenAIRE

    van Huizen, T.M.; Alessie, Rob

    2016-01-01

    Job mobility is inherently risky as workers have limited ex ante information about the quality of outside jobs. Using a large longitudinal Dutch dataset, which includes data on risk preferences elicited through (incentivized) experiments, we examine the relation between risk aversion and job mobility. The results for men show that risk averse workers are less likely to move to other jobs. For women, the evidence that risk aversion affects job mobility is weak. Our empirical findings indicate ...

  3. Risk aversion and social networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kovářík, J.; van der Leij, M.J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper first investigates empirically the relationship between risk aversion and social network structure in a large group of undergraduate students. We find that risk aversion is strongly correlated to local network clustering, that is, the probability that one has a social tie to friends of

  4. ARE PEOPLE INEQUALITY AVERSE OR JUST RISK AVERSE?

    OpenAIRE

    Carlsson, Fredrik; Daruvala, Dinky; Johansson-Stenman, Olof

    2001-01-01

    Individuals’ preferences for risk and inequality are measured through experimental choices between hypothetical societies and lotteries. The median relative risk aversion, which is often seen to reflect social inequality aversion, is between 2 and 3. We also estimate the individual inequality aversion, reflecting individuals’ willingness to pay for living in a more equal society. Left-wing voters and women are both more risk- and inequality averse than others. The model allows for non-monoton...

  5. The origin of risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruixun; Brennan, Thomas J; Lo, Andrew W

    2014-12-16

    Risk aversion is one of the most basic assumptions of economic behavior, but few studies have addressed the question of where risk preferences come from and why they differ from one individual to the next. Here, we propose an evolutionary explanation for the origin of risk aversion. In the context of a simple binary-choice model, we show that risk aversion emerges by natural selection if reproductive risk is systematic (i.e., correlated across individuals in a given generation). In contrast, risk neutrality emerges if reproductive risk is idiosyncratic (i.e., uncorrelated across each given generation). More generally, our framework implies that the degree of risk aversion is determined by the stochastic nature of reproductive rates, and we show that different statistical properties lead to different utility functions. The simplicity and generality of our model suggest that these implications are primitive and cut across species, physiology, and genetic origins.

  6. Peer effects in risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balsa, Ana I; Gandelman, Néstor; González, Nicolás

    2015-01-01

    We estimate peer effects in risk attitudes in a sample of high school students. Relative risk aversion is elicited from surveys administered at school. Identification of peer effects is based on parents not being able to choose the class within the school of their choice, and on the use of instrumental variables conditional on school-grade fixed effects. We find a significant and quantitatively large impact of peers' risk attitudes on a male individual's coefficient of risk aversion. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the group's coefficient of risk aversion increases an individual's risk aversion by 43%. Our findings shed light on the origin and stability of risk attitudes and, more generally, on the determinants of economic preferences. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Linking Measured Risk Aversion to Individual Characteristics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartog, J.; Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A.; Jonker, N.

    2002-01-01

    From the stated price of a specified lottery in three unrelated surveys we deduce individuals' Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion. We find that risk aversion indeed falls with income and wealth. Entrepreneurs are less risk averse than employees, civil servants are more risk averse than private

  8. Health shocks and risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, Simon; Schmitz, Hendrik

    2016-12-01

    We empirically assess whether a health shock influences individual risk aversion. We use grip strength data to obtain an objective health shock indicator. In order to account for the non-random nature of our data regression-adjusted matching is employed. Risk preferences are traditionally assumed to be constant. However, we find that a health shock increases individual risk aversion. The finding is robust to a series of sensitivity analyses and persists for at least four years after the shock. Income changes do not seem to be the driving mechanism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk Aversion and Job Mobility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Huizen, T.M.; Alessie, Rob

    2016-01-01

    Job mobility is inherently risky as workers have limited ex ante information about the quality of outside jobs. Using a large longitudinal Dutch dataset, which includes data on risk preferences elicited through (incentivized) experiments, we examine the relation between risk aversion and job

  10. Leverage Aversion and Risk Parity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asness, Clifford; Frazzini, Andrea; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2012-01-01

    The authors show that leverage aversion changes the predictions of modern portfolio theory: Safer assets must offer higher risk-adjusted returns than riskier assets. Consuming the high risk-adjusted returns of safer assets requires leverage, creating an opportunity for investors with the ability...... to apply leverage. Risk parity portfolios exploit this opportunity by equalizing the risk allocation across asset classes, thus overweighting safer assets relative to their weight in the market portfolio....

  11. Small Stakes Risk Aversion in the Laboratory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.; Ross, Don

    2017-01-01

    Evidence of risk aversion in laboratory settings over small stakes leads to a priori implausible levels of risk aversion over large stakes under certain assumptions. One core assumption in statements of this calibration puzzle is that small-stakes risk aversion is observed over all levels of wealth...

  12. Risk Aversion and Religion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noussair, C.N.; Trautmann, S.T.; van de Kuilen, G.; Vellekoop, N.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Using a dataset for a demographically representative sample of the Dutch population, containing a revealed preference risk attitude measure, as well as very detailed information about participants’ religious background, we study three issues raised in previous literature. First, we find

  13. Risk aversion and religious behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jytte Seested; Bech, Mickael; Christensen, Kaare

    2017-01-01

    would expect that risk averse individuals would demand a more generous protection plan which they may do by devoting more effort and resources into religious activities such as church attendance and prayer, which seems to be in accordance with previous empirical results. However, a general concern...... and prayer frequency on the other controlling for unobservable variables using survey data of Danish same-sex twin pairs. We verify the correlation between risk preferences and religion found previously by carrying out cross-sectional analyses. We also show that the association between risk attitudes...

  14. Risk Aversion, Price Uncertainty and Irreversible Investments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Goorbergh, R.W.J.; Huisman, K.J.M.; Kort, P.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper generalizes the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk averse investors in the absence of com-plete markets.Until now this theory has only been developed in the cases of risk neutrality, or risk aversion in combination with complete markets.Within a

  15. Risk Aversion, Loss Aversion, and the Demand for Insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Eeckhoudt

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze insurance demand when the utility function depends both upon final wealth and the level of losses or gains relative to a reference point. Besides some comparative statics results, we discuss the links with first-order risk aversion, with the Omega measure, and with a tendency to over-insure modest risks that has been been extensively documented in real insurance markets.

  16. Health Security and Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herington, Jonathan

    2016-09-01

    Health security has become a popular way of justifying efforts to control catastrophic threats to public health. Unfortunately, there has been little analysis of the concept of health security, nor the relationship between health security and other potential aims of public health policy. In this paper I develop an account of health security as an aversion to risky policy options. I explore three reasons for thinking risk avoidance is a distinctly worthwhile aim of public health policy: (i) that security is intrinsically valuable, (ii) that it is necessary for social planning and (iii) that it is an appropriate response to decision-making in contexts of very limited information. Striking the right balance between securing and maximizing population health thus requires a substantive, and hitherto unrecognized, value judgment. Finally, I critically evaluate the current health security agenda in light of this new account of the concept and its relationship to the other aims of public health policy. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Risk Aversion Relates to Cognitive Ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making, rather than to risk preferences....

  18. Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences....

  19. Climate policy: Risk-averse governments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Paul G.

    2014-04-01

    Relative to the scale of the problem, climate policies worldwide have failed. Now research explains why policy innovations are often inadequate, routinely reflecting the aversion of policymakers to the risk of failure.

  20. Small Stakes Risk Aversion in the Laboratory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten; Ross, Don

    Evidence of risk aversion in laboratory settings over small stakes leads to a priori implausible levels of risk aversion over large stakes under certain assumptions. One core assumption in standard statements of this calibration puzzle is that individuals define utility over terminal wealth......, and that terminal wealth is defined as the sum of extra-lab wealth and any wealth accumulated in the lab. This assumption is often used in Expected Utility Theory, as well as popular alternatives such as RankDependent Utility theory. Another core assumption is that the small-stakes risk aversion is observed over...... all levels of wealth, or over a “sufficiently large” range of wealth. Although this second assumption if often viewed as self-evident from the vast experimental literature showing risk aversion over laboratory stakes, it actually requires that lab wealth be varied for a given subject as one takes...

  1. How does economic risk aversion affect biodiversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouysset, L; Doyen, L; Jiguet, F

    2013-01-01

    Significant decline of biodiversity in farmlands has been reported for several decades. To limit the negative impact of agriculture, many agro-environmental schemes have been implemented, but their effectiveness remains controversial. In this context, the study of economic drivers is helpful to understand the role played by farming on biodiversity. The present paper analyzes the impact of risk aversion on farmland biodiversity. Here "risk aversion" means a cautious behavior of farmers facing uncertainty. We develop a bio-economic model that articulates bird community dynamics and representative farmers selecting land uses within an uncertain macro-economic context. It is specialized and calibrated at a regional scale for France through national databases. The influence of risk aversion is assessed on ecological, agricultural, and economic outputs through projections at the 2050 horizon. A high enough risk aversion appears sufficient to both manage economic risk and promote ecological performance. This occurs through a diversification mechanism on regional land uses. However, economic calibration leads to a weak risk-aversion parameter, which is consistent with the current decline of farmland birds. Spatial disparities however suggest that public incentives could be necessary to reinforce the diversification and bio-economic effectiveness.

  2. Effective return, risk aversion and drawdowns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dacorogna, Michel M.; Gençay, Ramazan; Müller, Ulrich A.; Pictet, Olivier V.

    2001-01-01

    We derive two risk-adjusted performance measures for investors with risk averse preferences. Maximizing these measures is equivalent to maximizing the expected utility of an investor. The first measure, Xeff, is derived assuming a constant risk aversion while the second measure, Reff, is based on a stronger risk aversion to clustering of losses than of gains. The clustering of returns is captured through a multi-horizon framework. The empirical properties of Xeff, Reff are studied within the context of real-time trading models for foreign exchange rates and their properties are compared to those of more traditional measures like the annualized return, the Sharpe Ratio and the maximum drawdown. Our measures are shown to be more robust against clustering of losses and have the ability to fully characterize the dynamic behaviour of investment strategies.

  3. Characterizing the genetic influences on risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrati, Amal

    2014-01-01

    Risk aversion has long been cited as an important factor in retirement decisions, investment behavior, and health. Some of the heterogeneity in individual risk tolerance is well understood, reflecting age gradients, wealth gradients, and similar effects, but much remains unexplained. This study explores genetic contributions to heterogeneity in risk aversion among older Americans. Using over 2 million genetic markers per individual from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, I report results from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on risk preferences using a sample of 10,455 adults. None of the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are found to be statistically significant determinants of risk preferences at levels stricter than 5 × 10(-8). These results suggest that risk aversion is a complex trait that is highly polygenic. The analysis leads to upper bounds on the number of genetic effects that could exceed certain thresholds of significance and still remain undetected at the current sample size. The findings suggest that the known heritability in risk aversion is likely to be driven by large numbers of genetic variants, each with a small effect size.

  4. Risk Aversion and Public Reporting. Part 2: Mitigation Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahian, David M; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Badhwar, Vinay; D'Agostino, Richard S; Bavaria, Joseph E; Prager, Richard L

    2017-12-01

    Part 1 of this review summarizes the consequences of risk aversion and the observational studies and surveys relevant to this phenomenon, almost all of which are derived from cardiac surgery and interventional cardiology. In Part 2, we describe the root cause of risk aversion-the belief by providers that current risk adjustment is inadequate to account for the severity of their highest-risk patients, thereby prejudicing their publicly reported performance scores. Evidence supporting the robustness of current risk adjustment is presented, as well as nine potential strategies to further mitigate risk aversion: optimization of data source, risk models, and performance measures; exclusion of high-risk patients; exclusion of non-procedure-related end points; separate reporting of high-risk patients; reporting by condition or diagnosis rather than by procedures; reporting at the hospital or program level rather than the physician level; collaborative, cross-disciplinary decision making; active surveillance for risk aversion; and improved stakeholder education. Of these, the first is most desirable, widely applicable, and resistant to gaming. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk Aversion and the Value of Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eeckhoudt, Louis; Godfroid, Phillippe

    2000-01-01

    Explains why risk aversion does not always induce a greater information value, but instead may induce a lower information value when increased. Presents a basic model defining the concept of perfect information value and providing a numerical illustration. Includes references. (CMK)

  6. Random queues and risk averse users

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Palma, André; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2013-01-01

    We analyze Nash equilibrium in time of use of a congested facility. Users are risk averse with general concave utility. Queues are subject to varying degrees of random sorting, ranging from strict queue priority to a completely random queue. We define the key “no residual queue” property, which...

  7. Household portfolios and implicit risk aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bucciol, A.; Miniaci, R.

    2008-01-01

    We derive from a sample of US households the distribution of the risk aversion implicit in their portfolio choice. Our estimate minimizes the distance between the certainty equivalent return generated with observed portfolios and portfolios that are optimal in a mean-variance framework. Taking into

  8. Public Sector Employees: Risk Averse and Altruistic?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.W.J.M. Buurman (Margaretha); A.J. Dur (Robert); S. Bossche, van den (Seth)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractWe assess whether public sector employees have a stronger inclination to serve others and are more risk averse than employees in the private sector. A unique feature of our study is that we use revealed rather than stated preferences data. Respondents of a large-scale survey were offered

  9. Public sector employees: risk averse and altruistic?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buurman, M.; Delfgaauw, J.; Dur, R.; Bossche, S.N.J. van den

    2012-01-01

    We assess whether public sector employees have a stronger inclination to serve others and are more risk averse than employees in the private sector. A unique feature of our study is that we use revealed rather than stated preferences data. Respondents of a large-scale survey were offered a

  10. Public sector employees: risk averse and altruistic?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buurman, M.; Dur, R.; Bossche, S.N.J. van den

    2009-01-01

    We assess whether public sector employees have a stronger inclination to serve others and are more risk averse than employees in the private sector. A unique feature of our study is that we use revealed rather than stated preferences data. Respondents of a large-scale survey were offered a

  11. Risk Aversion and Skewness Preference: a comment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.T. Post (Thierry); P. van Vliet (Pim)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractEmpirically, co-skewness of asset returns seems to explain a substantial part of the cross-sectional variation of mean return not explained by beta. Thisfinding is typically interpreted in terms of a risk averse representativeinvestor with a cubic utility function. This comment questions

  12. Risk and risk aversion in our society

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, B L [Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA)

    1985-01-01

    The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks with which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks.

  13. Risk and risk aversion in our society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1985-01-01

    The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks

  14. Risk Aversion in Game Shows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2008-01-01

    We review the use of behavior from television game shows to infer risk attitudes. These shows provide evidence when contestants are making decisions over very large stakes, and in a replicated, structured way. Inferences are generally confounded by the subjective assessment of skill in some games......, and the dynamic nature of the task in most games. We consider the game shows Card Sharks, Jeopardy!, Lingo, and finally Deal Or No Deal. We provide a detailed case study of the analyses of Deal Or No Deal, since it is suitable for inference about risk attitudes and has attracted considerable attention....

  15. Risk aversion and social networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kovarik, J.; van der Leij, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Agents involved in the formation of a social or economic network typically face uncertainty about the benefits of creating a link. However, the interplay of such uncertainty and risk attitudes has been neglected in the network formation literature. We propose a dynamic network formation model that

  16. Risk aversion and social networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kovářík, J.; van der Leij, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Agents involved in the formation of a social or economic network typically face uncertainty about the benefits of creating a link. However, the interplay of such uncertainty and risk attitudes has been neglected in the network formation literature. We propose a dynamic network formation model that

  17. Risk aversion and compliance in markets for pollution control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stranlund, John K

    2008-07-01

    This paper examines the effects of risk aversion on compliance choices in markets for pollution control. A firm's decision to be compliant or not is independent of its manager's risk preference. However, non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers will have lower violations than otherwise identical firms with risk-neutral managers. The violations of non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers are independent of differences in their profit functions and their initial allocations of permits if and only if their managers' utility functions exhibit constant absolute risk aversion. However, firm-level characteristics do impact violation choices when managers have coefficients of absolute risk aversion that are increasing or decreasing in profit levels. Finally, in the equilibrium of a market for emissions rights with widespread non-compliance, risk aversion is associated with higher permit prices, better environmental quality, and lower aggregate violations.

  18. Time-varying risk aversion. An application to energy hedging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cotter, John [Centre for Financial Markets, School of Business, University College Dublin, Blackrock, Co. Dublin (Ireland); Hanly, Jim [School of Accounting and Finance, Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin 2 (Ireland)

    2010-03-15

    Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison. (author)

  19. Time-varying risk aversion. An application to energy hedging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotter, John; Hanly, Jim

    2010-01-01

    Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison. (author)

  20. The risks of risk aversion in drug regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichler, Hans-Georg; Bloechl-Daum, Brigitte; Brasseur, Daniel; Breckenridge, Alasdair; Leufkens, Hubert; Raine, June; Salmonson, Tomas; Schneider, Christian K; Rasi, Guido

    2013-12-01

    Drugs are approved by regulatory agencies on the basis of their assessment of whether the available evidence indicates that the benefits of the drug outweigh its risks. In recent years, regulatory agencies have been criticized both for being overly tolerant of risks or being excessively risk-averse, which reflects the challenge in determining an appropriate balance between benefit and risk with the limited data that is typically available before drug approval. The negative consequences of regulatory tolerance in allowing drugs onto the market that turn out to be unsafe are obvious, but the potential for adverse effects on public health owing to the absence of new drugs because of regulatory risk-aversion is less apparent. Here, we discuss the consequences of regulatory risk-aversion for public health and suggest what might be done to best align acceptance of risk and uncertainty by regulators with the interests of public health.

  1. Risk aversion in medical decision making: a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Liliana Chicaíza; Mario García; Giancarlo Romano

    2011-01-01

    This article surveys the literature on risk aversion in medical decision making. The search covered Econlit, Jstor Science Direct and Springer Link since 1985. The results are classified in three topics: Risk aversion in the frameworks of Expected Utility and Rank Dependent Expected Utility theories, and the methodologies for measuring risk aversion and its applications to clinical situations from the points of view of economics and psychology. It was found that, despite conceptual and method...

  2. Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem.

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew Rabin.

    2000-01-01

    Within the expected-utility framework, the only explanation for risk aversion is that the utility function for wealth is concave: A person has lower marginal utility for additional wealth when she is wealthy than when she is poor. This paper provides a theorem showing that expected-utility theory is an utterly implausible explanation for appreciable risk aversion over modest stakes: Within expected-utility theory, for any concave utility function, even very little risk aversion over modest st...

  3. Enhanced Risk Aversion, But Not Loss Aversion, in Unmedicated Pathological Anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Caroline J; Aylward, Jessica; Roiser, Jonathan P; Robinson, Oliver J

    2017-06-15

    Anxiety disorders are associated with disruptions in both emotional processing and decision making. As a result, anxious individuals often make decisions that favor harm avoidance. However, this bias could be driven by enhanced aversion to uncertainty about the decision outcome (e.g., risk) or aversion to negative outcomes (e.g., loss). Distinguishing between these possibilities may provide a better cognitive understanding of anxiety disorders and hence inform treatment strategies. To address this question, unmedicated individuals with pathological anxiety (n = 25) and matched healthy control subjects (n = 23) completed a gambling task featuring a decision between a gamble and a safe (certain) option on every trial. Choices on one type of gamble-involving weighing a potential win against a potential loss (mixed)-could be driven by both loss and risk aversion, whereas choices on the other type-featuring only wins (gain only)-were exclusively driven by risk aversion. By fitting a computational prospect theory model to participants' choices, we were able to reliably estimate risk and loss aversion and their respective contribution to gambling decisions. Relative to healthy control subjects, pathologically anxious participants exhibited enhanced risk aversion but equivalent levels of loss aversion. Individuals with pathological anxiety demonstrate clear avoidance biases in their decision making. These findings suggest that this may be driven by a reduced propensity to take risks rather than a stronger aversion to losses. This important clarification suggests that psychological interventions for anxiety should focus on reducing risk sensitivity rather than reducing sensitivity to negative outcomes per se. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Mathematical Modeling for Risk Averse Firm Facing Loss Averse Customer’s Stochastic Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seungbeom Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To optimize the firm’s profit during a finite planning horizon, a dynamic programming model is used to make joint pricing and inventory replenishment decision assuming that customers are loss averse and the firm is risk averse. We model the loss averse customer’s demand using the multinomial choice model. In this choice model, we consider the acquisition and transition utilities widely used by a mental accounting theory which also incorporate the reference price and actual price. Then, we show that there is an optimal inventory policy which is base-stock policy depending on the accumulated wealth in each period.

  5. Differences in Risk Aversion between Young and Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Steven M; Duffy, John

    2012-01-15

    Research on decision-making strategies among younger and older adults suggests that older adults may be more risk averse than younger people in the case of potential losses. These results mostly come from experimental studies involving gambling paradigms. Since these paradigms involve substantial demands on memory and learning, differences in risk aversion or other features of decision-making attributed to age may in fact reflect age-related declines in cognitive abilities. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a simpler, paired lottery choice task used in the experimental economics literature to elicit risk aversion. A similar approach was used to elicit participants' discount rates. The older adult group was more risk averse than younger adults (p Risk aversion and implied discount rates were weakly correlated. It may be valuable to investigate developmental changes in neural correlates of decision-making across the lifespan.

  6. Risk Aversion and Sorting into Public Sector Employment

    OpenAIRE

    Pfeifer, Christian

    2008-01-01

    This research note uses two German data sets – the large-scale German Socio-Economic Panel and unique data from own student questionnaires – to analyse the relationship between risk aversion and the choice for public sector employment. Main results are: (1) more risk averse individuals sort into public sector employment, (2) the impact of career specific and unemployment risk attitudes is larger than the impact of general risk attitudes, and (3) risk taking is rewarded with higher wages in th...

  7. Averse to Initiative: Risk Management’s Effect on Mission Command

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-25

    Master’s Thesis 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) JUN 2016 – MAY 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Averse to Initiative: Risk Management’s Effect on Mission...decision weights and potential implications of educating leaders with Prospect Theory . Prospect Theory sheds light on how to look at loss and opportunity...the gain–causing risk aversion. Leaders educated in how to analyze a problem using Prospect Theory can rationally approach gains and losses. For the

  8. Risk Aversion and Engagement in the Sharing Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Santana

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The sharing economy is a new online community that has important implications for offline behavior. This study evaluates whether engagement in the sharing economy is associated with an actor’s aversion to risk. Using a web-based survey and a field experiment, we apply an adaptation of Holt and Laury’s (2002 risk lottery game to a representative sample of sharing economy participants. We find that frequency of activity in the sharing economy predicts risk aversion, but only in interaction with satisfaction. While greater satisfaction with sharing economy websites is associated with a decrease in risk aversion, greater frequency of usage is associated with greater risk aversion. This analysis shows the limitations of a static perspective on how risk attitudes relate to participation in the sharing economy.

  9. The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviours

    OpenAIRE

    Guiso, Luigi; Paiella, Monica

    2004-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers’ decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways cons...

  10. The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Monica Paiella; Luigi Guiso

    2004-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers' decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways cons...

  11. Neurocognitive development of risk aversion from early childhood to adulthood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David ePaulsen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Human adults tend to avoid risk. In behavioral economic studies, risk aversion is manifest as a preference for sure gains over uncertain gains. However, children tend to be less averse to risk than adults. Given that many of the brain regions supporting decision making under risk do not reach maturity until late adolescence or beyond it is possible that mature risk-averse behavior may emerge from the development of decision-making circuitry. To explore this hypothesis, we tested 6- to 8-year-old children, 14- to 16-year-old adolescents, and young adults in a risky-decision task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data acquisition. We found a number of decision-related brain regions to increase in activation with age during decision making, including areas associated with contextual memory retrieval and the incorporation of prior outcomes into the current decision-making strategy, e.g. insula, hippocampus and amygdala. Further, children who were more risk averse showed increased activation during decision making in vmPFC and ventral striatum. Our findings indicate that the emergence of adult levels of risk aversion co-occurs with the recruitment of regions supporting decision making under risk, including the integration of prior outcomes into current decision-making behavior. This pattern of results suggests that individual differences in the development of risk aversion may reflect differences in the maturation of these neural processes.

  12. Feasible sets, comparative risk aversion, and comparative uncertainty aversion in bargaining

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driesen, B.W.I.; Lombardi, M.; Peters, H.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    We study feasible sets of the bargaining problem under two different assumptions: the players are subjective expected utility maximizers or the players are Choquet expected utility maximizers. For the latter case, we consider the effects on bargaining solutions when players become more risk averse

  13. Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ebert, S.; Wiesen, D.

    Risk aversion—but also the higher-order risk preferences of prudence and temperance—are fundamental concepts in the study of economic decision making. We propose a method to jointly measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Our theoretical approach is to define risk

  14. Risk-Averse Newsvendor Model with Strategic Consumer Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tie Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The classic newsvendor problem focuses on maximizing the expected profit or minimizing the expected cost when the newsvendor faces myopic customers. However, it ignores the customer’s bargain-hunting behavior and risk preference measure of the newsvendor. As a result, we carry out the rational expectation (RE equilibrium analysis for risk-averse newsvendor facing forward-looking customers who anticipate future sales and choose purchasing timing to maximize their expected surplus. We propose the equations satisfied by the RE equilibrium price and quantity for the risk-averse retailer in general setting and the explicit equilibrium decisions for the case where demand follows the uniform distribution and utility is a general power function. We identify the impacts of the system parameters on the RE equilibrium for this specific situation. In particular, we show that the RE equilibrium price for some risk-averse newsvendors is lower than for a risk-neutral retailer and the RE equilibrium stocking quantity for some risk-averse newsvendors is higher than for a risk-neutral retailer. We also find that the RE equilibrium sale price for a risk-averse newsvendor is decreasing in salvage price in some situations.

  15. Forward conditioning with wheel running causes place aversion in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masaki, Takahisa; Nakajima, Sadahiko

    2008-09-01

    Backward pairings of a distinctive chamber as a conditioned stimulus and wheel running as an unconditioned stimulus (i.e., running-then-chamber) can produce a conditioned place preference in rats. The present study explored whether a forward conditioning procedure with these stimuli (i.e., chamber-then-running) would yield place preference or aversion. Confinement of a rat in one of two distinctive chambers was followed by a 20- or 60-min running opportunity, but confinement in the other was not. After four repetitions of this treatment (i.e., differential conditioning), a choice preference test was given in which the rat had free access to both chambers. This choice test showed that the rats given 60-min running opportunities spent less time in the running-paired chamber than in the unpaired chamber. Namely, a 60-min running opportunity after confinement in a distinctive chamber caused conditioned aversion to that chamber after four paired trials. This result was discussed with regard to the opponent-process theory of motivation.

  16. Experimental evidence against the paradigm of mortality risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinberger, Christoph M

    2010-04-01

    This article deals with the question of how societal impacts of fatal accidents can be integrated into the management of natural or man-made hazards. Today, many governmental agencies give additional weight to the number of potential fatalities in their risk assessments to reflect society's aversion to large accidents. Although mortality risk aversion has been proposed in numerous risk management guidelines, there has been no evidence that lay people want public decisionmakers to overweight infrequent accidents of large societal consequences against more frequent ones of smaller societal consequences. Furthermore, it is not known whether public decisionmakers actually do such overweighting when they decide upon the mitigation of natural or technical hazards. In this article, we report on two experimental tasks that required participants to evaluate negative prospects involving 1-100 potential fatalities. Our results show that neither lay people nor hazard experts exhibit risk-averse behavior in decisions on mortality risks.

  17. Gender Differences in Risk Aversion Among Chinese University Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Desmond

    2015-12-01

    This paper examines gender differences in risk aversion among Chinese university students. Chinese females are proposed to be more risk averse and require a higher risk premium when faced with a gamble option in the gain-domain frame as compared to Chinese males. Two groups of 100 participants each (male = 100 and female = 100 in total) were recruited to fill up questionnaires that included items relating to objective probability lotteries. Within each group, it was found that Chinese males and females did not differ in their risk aversion. However, results show that Chinese males tend to react more readily to rising risk premium by taking up options with higher expected values when compared to Chinese females. Current findings will have useful implications to marketers (particularly, promoters of gambling products) and problem gambling counselors.

  18. Differences in risk aversion between young and older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert SM

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Steven M Albert1, John Duffy21Department of Behavioral and Community Health Sciences, 2Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USAAbstract: Research on decision-making strategies among younger and older adults suggests that older adults may be more risk averse than younger people in the case of potential losses. These results mostly come from experimental studies involving gambling paradigms. Since these paradigms involve substantial demands on memory and learning, differences in risk aversion or other features of decision making attributed to age may in fact reflect age-related declines in cognitive abilities. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a simpler, paired lottery choice task used in the experimental economics literature to elicit risk aversion. A similar approach was used to elicit participants' discount rates. The older adult group was more risk averse than the younger (P < 0.05 and had a higher discount rate (15.6%–21.0% versus 10.3%–15.5%, P < 0.01, indicating lower expected utility from future income. Risk aversion and implied discount rates were weakly correlated. It may be valuable to investigate developmental changes in neural correlates of decision making across the lifespan.Keywords: aging, decision making, risk, time preference, behavioral economics

  19. Neurocognitive development of risk aversion from early childhood to adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, David J; Carter, R McKell; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

    2011-01-01

    Human adults tend to avoid risk. In behavioral economic studies, risk aversion is manifest as a preference for sure gains over uncertain gains. However, children tend to be less averse to risk than adults. Given that many of the brain regions supporting decision-making under risk do not reach maturity until late adolescence or beyond it is possible that mature risk-averse behavior may emerge from the development of decision-making circuitry. To explore this hypothesis, we tested 5- to 8-year-old children, 14- to 16-year-old adolescents, and young adults in a risky-decision task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquisition. To our knowledge, this is the youngest sample of children in an fMRI decision-making task. We found a number of decision-related brain regions to increase in activation with age during decision-making, including areas associated with contextual memory retrieval and the incorporation of prior outcomes into the current decision-making strategy, e.g., insula, hippocampus, and amygdala. Further, children who were more risk-averse showed increased activation during decision-making in ventromedial prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum. Our findings indicate that the emergence of adult levels of risk aversion co-occurs with the recruitment of regions supporting decision-making under risk, including the integration of prior outcomes into current decision-making behavior. This pattern of results suggests that individual differences in the development of risk aversion may reflect differences in the maturation of these neural processes.

  20. Human capital and risk aversion in relational incentive contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kvaloey, Ola

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines a self-enforced relational incentive contract between a risk neutral principal and a risk averse agent where the agent's human capital is essential in ex post realization of values. I analyse the effect of outside options on the optimal bonus level, showing how the presence of ex post outside options may impede desirable degrees of performance pay. The effect of risk aversion and incentive responsiveness is analysed by allowing for linear contracts. I show that the first order effect of these parameters are the same as in verifiable contracts, but second order effects show that the optimal bonus level's sensitivity to risk aversion and incentive responsiveness increases with the discount factor. The analysis has interesting implications on firm boundaries and specificity choices. (author)

  1. THE ROLE OF RISK AVERSION IN PREDICTING INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR

    OpenAIRE

    Luigi Guiso; Monica Paiella

    2005-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers� decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways co...

  2. Endogenous time-varying risk aversion and asset returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berardi, Michele

    2016-01-01

    Stylized facts about statistical properties for short horizon returns in financial markets have been identified in the literature, but a satisfactory understanding for their manifestation is yet to be achieved. In this work, we show that a simple asset pricing model with representative agent is able to generate time series of returns that replicate such stylized facts if the risk aversion coefficient is allowed to change endogenously over time in response to unexpected excess returns under evolutionary forces. The same model, under constant risk aversion, would instead generate returns that are essentially Gaussian. We conclude that an endogenous time-varying risk aversion represents a very parsimonious way to make the model match real data on key statistical properties, and therefore deserves careful consideration from economists and practitioners alike.

  3. Heterogenous Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution and Relative Risk Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia; Gayle, Wayne-Roy

    This paper investigates the existence and degree of variation across house holds and over time in the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) and the coefficient of relative risk aversion (RRA) that is generated by habit forming preferences. To do so, we develop a new nonlinear GMM estimator...... in food consumption. Using these estimates, we develop bounds for the expectation of the implied heterogenous intertemporal elasticity of substitution and relative risk aversion that account for measurement errors and compute asymptotically valid confidence intervals on these bounds. We find...

  4. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Gender differences in financial risk aversion and career choices are affected by testosterone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapienza, Paola; Zingales, Luigi; Maestripieri, Dario

    2009-09-08

    Women are generally more risk averse than men. We investigated whether between- and within-gender variation in financial risk aversion was accounted for by variation in salivary concentrations of testosterone and in markers of prenatal testosterone exposure in a sample of >500 MBA students. Higher levels of circulating testosterone were associated with lower risk aversion among women, but not among men. At comparably low concentrations of salivary testosterone, however, the gender difference in risk aversion disappeared, suggesting that testosterone has nonlinear effects on risk aversion regardless of gender. A similar relationship between risk aversion and testosterone was also found using markers of prenatal testosterone exposure. Finally, both testosterone levels and risk aversion predicted career choices after graduation: Individuals high in testosterone and low in risk aversion were more likely to choose risky careers in finance. These results suggest that testosterone has both organizational and activational effects on risk-sensitive financial decisions and long-term career choices.

  6. An Index of Loss Aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Köbberling, V.; Wakker, P.P.

    2005-01-01

    To a considerable extent, risk aversion as it is commonly observed is caused by loss aversion. Several indexes of loss aversion have been proposed in the literature. The one proposed in this paper leads to a clear decomposition of risk attitude into three distinct components: basic utility,

  7. An Index of Loss Aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V. Köbberling (Veronika); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractTo a considerable extent, risk aversion as it is commonly observed is caused by loss aversion. Several indexes of loss aversion have been proposed in the literature. The one proposed in this paper leads to a clear decomposition of risk attitude into three distinct components: basic

  8. Myopic loss aversion: Potential causes of replication failures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Klos

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents two studies on narrow bracketing and myopic loss aversion. The first study shows that the tendency to segregate multiple gambles is eliminated if subjects face a certainty equivalent or a probability equivalent task instead of a binary choice. The second study argues that the behavioral differences previously attributed entirely to myopic loss aversion are partly because long-term return properties are simply easier to grasp if the return information is already provided in the form of long-term returns rather than one-year returns. Both results may be related to recent failures to replicate myopic loss aversion. When the choice situation is structured in such a way that it draws respondents' attention to the final outcome distribution and/or if severe misestimations of long-term returns based on short-term return information are unlikely, behavioral differences consistent with myopic loss aversion are less likely to be observed.

  9. Absolute Risk Aversion and the Returns to Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunello, Giorgio

    2002-01-01

    Uses 1995 Italian household income and wealth survey to measure individual absolute risk aversion of 1,583 married Italian male household heads. Uses this measure as an instrument for attained education in a standard-log earnings equation. Finds that the IV estimate of the marginal return to schooling is much higher than the ordinary least squares…

  10. Subjective expected utility with non-increasing risk aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.

    1989-01-01

    It is shown that assumptions about risk aversion, usually studied under the presupposition of expected utility maximization, have a surprising extra merit at an earlier stage of the measurement work: together with the sure-thing principle, these assumptions imply subjective expected utility

  11. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

  12. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the m otivational density , to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

  13. A Survey Data Response to the Teaching of Utility Curves and Risk Aversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, Jeffrey; Sharma, Vivek

    2011-01-01

    In many finance and economics courses as well as in practice, the concept of risk aversion is reduced to the standard deviation of returns, whereby risk-averse investors prefer to minimize their portfolios' standard deviations. In reality, the concept of risk aversion is richer and more interesting than this, and can easily be conveyed through…

  14. Model dependencies of risk aversion and working interest estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    Working interest, W, and risk adjusted value, RAV, are evaluated using both Cozzolino's formula for exponential dependence of risk aversion and also for a hyperbolic tangent dependence. In addition, the general method is given of constructing an RAV formula for any functional choice of risk aversion dependence. Two examples are given to illustrate how the model dependencies influence choices of working interest and risk adjusted value depending on whether the expected value of the project is positive or negative. In general the Cozzolino formula provides a more conservative position for risk than does the hyperbolic tangent formula, reflecting the difference in corporate attitudes to risk aversion. The commonly used Cozzolino formula is shown to have simple exact arithmetic expressions for maximum working interest and maximum RAV; the hyperbolic tangent formula has approximate analytic expressions. Both formulae also yield approximate analytical expressions for the working interest yielding a risk neutral RAV of zero. These arithmetic results are useful for making quick estimates of working interest ranges and risk adjusted values. (Author)

  15. Risk aversion affects economic values of blue fox breeding scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peura, J; Kempe, R; Strandén, I; Rydhmer, L

    2016-12-01

    The profit and production of an average Finnish blue fox farm was simulated using a deterministic bio-economic farm model. Risk was included using Arrow-Prat absolute risk aversion coefficient and profit variance. Risk-rated economic values were calculated for pregnancy rate, litter loss, litter size, pelt size, pelt quality, pelt colour clarity, feed efficiency and eye infection. With high absolute risk aversion, economic values were lower than with low absolute risk aversion. Economic values were highest for litter loss (18.16 and 26.42 EUR), litter size (13.27 and 19.40 EUR), pregnancy (11.99 and 18.39 EUR) and eye infection (12.39 and 13.81 EUR). Sensitivity analysis showed that selection pressure for improved eye health depended strongly on proportion of culled animals among infected animals and much less on the proportion of infected animals. The economic value of feed efficiency was lower than expected (6.06 and 8.03 EUR). However, it was almost the same magnitude as pelt quality (7.30 and 7.30 EUR) and higher than the economic value of pelt size (3.37 and 5.26 EUR). Risk factors should be considered in blue fox breeding scheme because they change the relative importance of traits. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  16. Hiring a Gay Man, Taking a Risk?: A Lab Experiment on Employment Discrimination and Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baert, Stijn

    2018-01-01

    We investigate risk aversion as a driver of labor market discrimination against homosexual men. We show that more hiring discrimination by more risk-averse employers is consistent with taste-based and statistical discrimination. To test this hypothesis we conduct a scenario experiment in which experimental employers take a fictitious hiring decision concerning a heterosexual or homosexual male job candidate. In addition, participants are surveyed on their risk aversion and other characteristics that might correlate with this risk aversion. Analysis of the (post-)experimental data confirms our hypothesis. The likelihood of a beneficial hiring decision for homosexual male candidates decreases by 31.7% when employers are a standard deviation more risk-averse.

  17. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead

  18. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead.

  19. Identification of risk aversion factor for radiation workers in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fadul, Abdulbagi; Na, Seong H.

    2016-01-01

    Radiation aversion factor reflects the degree of avoidance of radiation exposure which is considered a fundamental element in the optimization of radiation protection and a key factor in determining the real monetary value of the man-Sievert (Sv). This study provides an adjusted risk aversion factor, which was prescribed by the Korea Institute for Nuclear Safety (KINS), a regulatory body in Korea. Specifically, the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (KHNP) evaluated the monetary value of the man-Sv for Korean Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) workers. This monetary value was assessed by the radiation aversion factor. Consequently, identifying the monetary value of the man-Sv in this study will enhance not only the effectiveness of optimization of radiation protection in Korea but also contribute to reduce doses to As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) when accounting for economic and societal aspects. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain the risk aversion factor for radiation workers in medical and industrial facilities in Korea. The secondary purpose is to evaluate the real monetary value of the man-Sv.These objectives will be accomplished by collecting data from surveys that consider a variety of socio-economic conditions. The value of 1.45 represents considerable avoidance of radiation risk for the majority of NDT radiographers due to familiarity and work experience with radiation hazards. On the other hand, the value 1.57 indicates that most of radiation medical practitioners, in particular, interventional radiologists have a strong will to avoid radiation risk. However, they will accept more risk with incremental salary increases. For international comparison, the concept of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) should be adopted to obtain the alpha values in real term. Certainly, this monetary value of the man-Sv is expected to contribute effectively in optimization of radiation protection in both medical and industrial fields. The findings of this study

  20. Identification of risk aversion factor for radiation workers in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fadul, Abdulbagi [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Na, Seong H. [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Radiation aversion factor reflects the degree of avoidance of radiation exposure which is considered a fundamental element in the optimization of radiation protection and a key factor in determining the real monetary value of the man-Sievert (Sv). This study provides an adjusted risk aversion factor, which was prescribed by the Korea Institute for Nuclear Safety (KINS), a regulatory body in Korea. Specifically, the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (KHNP) evaluated the monetary value of the man-Sv for Korean Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) workers. This monetary value was assessed by the radiation aversion factor. Consequently, identifying the monetary value of the man-Sv in this study will enhance not only the effectiveness of optimization of radiation protection in Korea but also contribute to reduce doses to As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) when accounting for economic and societal aspects. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain the risk aversion factor for radiation workers in medical and industrial facilities in Korea. The secondary purpose is to evaluate the real monetary value of the man-Sv.These objectives will be accomplished by collecting data from surveys that consider a variety of socio-economic conditions. The value of 1.45 represents considerable avoidance of radiation risk for the majority of NDT radiographers due to familiarity and work experience with radiation hazards. On the other hand, the value 1.57 indicates that most of radiation medical practitioners, in particular, interventional radiologists have a strong will to avoid radiation risk. However, they will accept more risk with incremental salary increases. For international comparison, the concept of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) should be adopted to obtain the alpha values in real term. Certainly, this monetary value of the man-Sv is expected to contribute effectively in optimization of radiation protection in both medical and industrial fields. The findings of this study

  1. Brief Report: Risk-Aversion and Rationality in Autism Spectrum Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, Corentin J; Moutier, Sylvain

    2018-05-30

    Risk-aversion and rationality have both been highlighted as core features of decision making in individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). This study tested whether risk-aversion is related to rational decision-making in ASD individuals. ASD and matched control adults completed a decision-making task that discriminated between the use of risk-averse and rational strategies. Results showed that overall, ASD participants were more risk-averse than control participants. Specifically, both groups made similar choices when risk-aversion was the less rational strategy but ASD participants chose more rational options than control participants when risk-aversion was the most rational strategy. This study confirmed that risk-aversion is a core feature of ASD and revealed that ASD individuals can switch their decision-making strategy adaptively to avoid negative consequences.

  2. Mean-Preserving-Spread Risk Aversion and The CAPM

    OpenAIRE

    Phelim P. Boyle; Chenghu Ma

    2013-01-01

    This paper establishes conditions under which the classical CAPM holds in equilibrium. Our derivation uses simple arguments to clarify and extend results available in the literature. We show that if agents are risk averse in the sense of mean-preserving-spread (MPS) the CAPM will necessarily hold, along with two-fund separation. We derive this result without imposing any distributional assumptions on asset returns. The CAPM holds even when the market contains an infinite number of securities ...

  3. Personality, risk aversion and speeding: an empirical investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greaves, Stephen P; Ellison, Adrian B

    2011-09-01

    Evidence suggests that in addition to demographics, there are strong relationships between facets of drivers' personality (e.g., aggression, thrill-seeking, altruism), aversion to risk and driving behaviour, particularly speeding. However, evidence is muted by the reliance on self-reported driving behaviour, which is thought to not accurately reflect actual driving behaviour. This paper reports on a study of 133 drivers in Sydney, who were asked to complete a short survey to develop their personality and risk aversion profiles and self-reported speeding behaviour. A Global Positioning System (GPS) device was then installed in their vehicle for several weeks as part of a major investigation of driving behaviour from which empirical measures of speeding are derived. Among the most pertinent findings are: (1) the tendency for drivers to both under and over-estimate their propensity to speed, (2) significant heterogeneity in speeding with a small, but notable number of drivers exceeding the limit for more than 20 percent of the distance driven, (3) weak relationships between the personality/risk-aversion measures and actual speeding, and (4) the suggestion that different personality traits appear to influence behaviour in different situations both from self-reported and actual speeding behaviour. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Business corruption, uncertainty and risk aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Tina Søreide

    2006-01-01

    The presence of business-corruption in a market provokes firms to make choices between legal business approaches and illegal bribery. The outcome of a chosen strategy will usually be uncertain at the time the decision is made, and a firm's decision will depend partly on its attitude towards risk. Drawing on the empirical data provided by a survey of 82 Norwegian exporting businesses, the paper proposes a theory about firm's choices between legal and illegal business practices. It begins by de...

  5. Engineering Decisions Under Risk-Averseness

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-13

    Y (x′) may be different, especially in the critical upper tail. For example, if Y (x) = g(x,V ) = 100− xV1 − (1− x)V2, where V1 is normally...Econometrica, 47:263–291, 1979. [16] K. Kalinchenko, S. Uryasev, and R.T. Rockafellar. Calibrating risk preferences with generalized CAPM based on mixed

  6. Measuring Risk Aversion to Guide Transportation Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dixit, Vinayak K.; Harb, Rami C.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy

    2015-01-01

    Road pricing may provide a solution to increasing traffic congestion in metropolitan areas. Route, departure time and travel mode choices depend on risk attitudes as commuters perceive the options as having uncertain effects on travel times. We propose that Experimental Economics methods can...... deliver data that uses real consequences and where the context can be varied by the researcher. The approach relies on the controlled manipulation of contexts, similar to what is done in the Stated Choice approach, but builds in actual consequences, similar to the Revealed Preference approach. This paper...

  7. Fairness concerns and risk aversion on recycle pricing strategies: Implications for environmentally friendly supply chains

    OpenAIRE

    He, Jianhong; Zhang, Lei; Lu, Binbin; Li, Lin

    2018-01-01

    This paper studies the pricing strategy in the closed-loop supply chain with Nash bargaining when considering fairness concerns and risk aversion. Mainly, the authors argue that behavioral factors (i.e., fairness concern and risk aversion) should be introduced into pricing process. They consider three different pricing models: the first is that both manufacturer and retailer have fairness concern; the second is both manufacturer and retailer have risk aversion and the final is manufacturer ha...

  8. Risk aversion, time preference, and the social cost of carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthoff, David; Tol, Richard S J; Yohe, Gary W

    2009-01-01

    The Stern Review reported a social cost of carbon of over $300/tC, calling for ambitious climate policy. We here conduct a systematic sensitivity analysis of this result on two crucial parameters: the rate of pure time preference, and the rate of risk aversion. We show that the social cost of carbon lies anywhere in between 0 and $120 000/tC. However, if we restrict these two parameters to matching observed behaviour, an expected social cost of carbon of $60/tC results. If we correct this estimate for income differences across the world, the social cost of carbon rises to over $200/tC.

  9. Labor migration and risk aversion in less developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, E; Stark, O

    1986-01-01

    "In this paper we question the pioneering work of Todaro, which states that rural-to-urban labor migration in less developed countries (LDCs) is an individual response to a higher urban expected income. We demonstrate that rural-to-urban labor migration is perfectly rational even if urban expected income is lower than rural income. We achieve this under a set of fairly stringent conditions: an individual decision-making entity, a one-period planning horizon, and global risk aversion. We obtain the result that a small chance of reaping a high reward is sufficient to trigger rural-to-urban labor migration." excerpt

  10. Shared risk aversion in spontaneous and induced abortion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalano, Ralph; Bruckner, Tim A; Karasek, Deborah; Adler, Nancy E; Mortensen, Laust H

    2016-05-01

    Does the incidence of spontaneous abortion correlate positively over conception cohorts with the incidence of non-clinically indicated induced abortion as predicted by shared risk aversion? We find that the number of spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions correlates in conception cohorts, suggesting that risk aversion affects both the conscious and non-conscious mechanisms that control parturition. Much literature speculates that natural selection conserved risk aversion because the trait enhanced Darwinian fitness. Risk aversion, moreover, supposedly influences all decisions including those that individuals can and cannot report making. We argue that these circumstances, if real, would manifest in conscious and non-conscious decisions to invest in prospective offspring, and therefore affect incidence of induced and spontaneous abortion over time. Using data from Denmark, we test the hypothesis that monthly conception cohorts yielding unexpectedly many non-clinically indicated induced abortions also yield unexpectedly many spontaneous abortions. The 180 month test period (January 1995 through December 2009), yielded 1 351 800 gestations including 156 780 spontaneous as well as 233 280 induced abortions 9100 of which were clinically indicated. We use Box-Jenkins transfer functions to adjust the incidence of spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions for autocorrelation (including seasonality), cohort size, and fetal as well as gestational anomalies over the 180-month test period. We use cross-correlation to test our hypothesized association. We find a positive association between spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions. This suggests, consistent with our theory, that mothers of conception cohorts that yielded more spontaneous abortions than expected opted more frequently than expected for non-clinically indicated induced abortion. Limitations of our work include that even the world's best registration system

  11. Simulating the market coefficient of relative risk aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samih Antoine Azar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, expected utility, defined by a Taylor series expansion around expected wealth, is maximized. The coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA that is commensurate with a 100% investment in the risky asset is simulated. The following parameters are varied: the riskless return, the market standard deviation, the market stock premium, and the skewness and the kurtosis of the risky return. Both the high extremes and the low extremes are considered. With these figures, the upper bound of the market CRRA is 3.021 and the lower bound is 0.466. Log utility, which corresponds to a CRRA of 1, is not excluded.

  12. Optimal Consumption and Investment under Time-Varying Relative Risk Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steffensen, Mogens

    2011-01-01

    We consider the continuous time consumption-investment problem originally formalized and solved by Merton in case of constant relative risk aversion. We present a complete solution for the case where relative risk aversion with respect to consumption varies with time, having in mind an investor...... with age-dependent risk aversion. This provides a new motivation for life-cycle investment rules. We study the optimal consumption and investment rules, in particular in the case where the relative risk aversion with respect to consumption is increasing with age....

  13. Modeling OPEC behavior: theories of risk aversion for oil producer decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    1999-01-01

    Theories of OPEC such as price leadership, cartel, or game theoretic models suggest an incentive for OPEC members to expand their production capacity well above current levels in order to maximize revenues. Yet individual OPEC members consistently explore for and develop oil fields at a level well below their potential. The cause of low oil exploration and development efforts among OPEC members, and even some non-OPEC members, may have to do with risk aversion. This paper describes an alternative theory for OPEC behavior based on risk aversion using a two piece non-Neumann-Morgenstern utility function similar to Fishburn and Koehenberger (1979, Decision Science 10, 503-518), and Friedman and Savage (1948, Journal of political Economy 56). The model shows possible low oil production behavior. (author)

  14. Empirical analysis of time preferences and risk aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tu, Q.

    2005-01-01

    One of the important contributions is that a structural model with the reference point and loss aversion for intertemporal choice was developed to estimate the coefficient of loss aversion and the reference points of individuals.

  15. Does Market Experience Attenuate Risk Aversion? Evidence from Landed Farm Households in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melesse, Mequanint Biset; Cecchi, Francesco

    2017-01-01

    Risk preferences are important drivers of many relevant economic decisions of farm households. High risk aversion is a well-known trigger of "poverty traps" for farm households in developing countries. This paper analyzes the effect of market experience on risk aversion for a relatively large sample

  16. Does Market Experience Attenuate Risk Aversion? Evidence from Landed Farm Households in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melesse, Mequanint B.; Cecchi, Francesco

    2017-01-01

    Risk preferences are important drivers of many relevant economic decisions of farm households. High risk aversion is a well-known trigger of "poverty traps" for farm households in developing countries. This paper analyzes the effect of market experience on risk aversion for a relatively large

  17. Cognitive function is associated with risk aversion in community-based older persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Laibson, David I; Bennett, David A

    2011-09-11

    Emerging data from younger and middle-aged persons suggest that cognitive ability is negatively associated with risk aversion, but this association has not been studied among older persons who are at high risk of experiencing loss of cognitive function. Using data from 369 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the correlates of risk aversion and tested the hypothesis that cognition is negatively associated with risk aversion. Global cognition and five specific cognitive abilities were measured via detailed cognitive testing, and risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $21.79 to $151.19 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. We first examined the bivariate associations of age, education, sex, income and cognition with risk aversion. Next, we examined the associations between cognition and risk aversion via mixed models adjusted for age, sex, education, and income. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analyses to ensure that our results were not driven by persons with preclinical cognitive impairment. In bivariate analyses, sex, education, income and global cognition were associated with risk aversion. However, in a mixed effect model, only sex (estimate = -1.49, standard error (SE) = 0.39, p risk aversion. Thus, a lower level of global cognitive function and female sex were associated with greater risk aversion. Moreover, performance on four out of the five cognitive domains was negatively related to risk aversion (i.e., semantic memory, episodic memory, working memory, and perceptual speed); performance on visuospatial abilities was not. A lower level of cognitive ability and female sex are associated with greater

  18. Impact of childhood trauma and cognitive emotion regulation strategies on risk-aversive and loss-aversive patterns of decision-making in patients with depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huh, Hyu Jung; Baek, Kwangyeol; Kwon, Jae-Hyung; Jeong, Jaeseung; Chae, Jeong-Ho

    2016-11-01

    Although poor decision-making ultimately impairs quality of life in depression, few studies describe the clinical characteristics of patients suffering from dysfunctional decision-making. This study aims to delineate the effect of childhood trauma and other personality factors on risk-aversive and loss-aversive patterns of decision-making in patients with depression. A total of 50 depressive patients completed surveys for the measurement of sociodemographic factors, trauma loads and other clinical characteristics, including depression, anxiety, and strategies for emotion regulation. Risk aversion and loss aversion were quantified using probability discounting task and a 50:50 gamble on monetary decision-making task under specified risks. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the factors, predicting risk aversion or loss aversion in depression. Childhood trauma was the most prominent factor predicting loss aversion in patients with depressive disorders. Overall maladaptive emotion regulation strategies were associated with risk aversion. Childhood trauma and specific strategies of emotion regulation contribute to risk or loss aversion in patients with depression. These findings may provide useful insight into elaborative evaluation and interventions to improve decision-making and quality of life in patients with depression.

  19. On the descriptive value of loss aversion in decisions under risk: Six clarifications

    OpenAIRE

    Eyal Ert; Ido Erev

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies of loss aversion in decisions under risk have led to mixed results. Losses appear to loom larger than gains in some settings, but not in others. The current paper clarifies these results by highlighting six experimental manipulations that tend to increase the likelihood of the behavior predicted by loss aversion. These manipulations include: (1) framing of the safe alternative as the status quo; (2) ensuring that the choice pattern predicted by loss aversion maximizes the pro...

  20. Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

    2015-04-01

    Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management

  1. Acute stress affects risk taking but not ambiguity aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckert, Magdalena; Schwieren, Christiane; Kudielka, Brigitte M; Fiebach, Christian J

    2014-01-01

    Economic decisions are often made in stressful situations (e.g., at the trading floor), but the effects of stress on economic decision making have not been systematically investigated so far. The present study examines how acute stress influences economic decision making under uncertainty (risk and ambiguity) using financially incentivized lotteries. We varied the domain of decision making as well as the expected value of the risky prospect. Importantly, no feedback was provided to investigate risk taking and ambiguity aversion independent from learning processes. In a sample of 75 healthy young participants, 55 of whom underwent a stress induction protocol (Trier Social Stress Test for Groups), we observed more risk seeking for gains. This effect was restricted to a subgroup of participants that showed a robust cortisol response to acute stress (n = 26). Gambling under ambiguity, in contrast to gambling under risk, was not influenced by the cortisol response to stress. These results show that acute psychosocial stress affects economic decision making under risk, independent of learning processes. Our results further point to the importance of cortisol as a mediator of this effect.

  2. Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD

  3. Risk aversion and religious behaviour: Analysis using a sample of Danish twins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Jytte Seested; Bech, Mickael; Christensen, Kaare; Kiil, Astrid; Hvidt, Niels Christian

    2017-08-01

    Economics offers an analytical framework to consider human behaviour including religious behaviour. Within the realm of Expected Utility Theory, religious belief and activity could be interpreted as an insurance both for current life events and for afterlife rewards. Based on that framework, we would expect that risk averse individuals would demand a more generous protection plan which they may do by devoting more effort and resources into religious activities such as church attendance and prayer, which seems to be in accordance with previous empirical results. However, a general concern regards the problems of spurious correlations due to underlying omitted or unobservable characteristics shaping both religious activities and risk attitudes. This paper examines empirically the demand for religion by analysing the association between risk attitudes on the one hand, and church attandance and prayer frequency on the other controlling for unobservable variables using survey data of Danish same-sex twin pairs. We verify the correlation between risk preferences and religion found previously by carrying out cross-sectional analyses. We also show that the association between risk attitudes and religious behaviour is driven by the subgroup of individuals who believe in an afterlife. In addition, when re-analysing our results using panel data analyses which cancel out shared factors among twin pairs, we find that the correlation found between risk aversion and religious behaviour is no longer significant indicating that other factors might explain differences in religious behaviour. Caution is needed in the interpretation of our results as the insignificant association between risk aversion and religious behaviour in the panel data analyses potentially might be due to measurement error causing attenuation bias or lack of variation within twin pairs rather than the actual absence of an association. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Neural correlates of value, risk, and risk aversion contributing to decision making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopoulos, George I; Tobler, Philippe N; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J; Schultz, Wolfram

    2009-10-07

    Decision making under risk is central to human behavior. Economic decision theory suggests that value, risk, and risk aversion influence choice behavior. Although previous studies identified neural correlates of decision parameters, the contribution of these correlates to actual choices is unknown. In two different experiments, participants chose between risky and safe options. We identified discrete blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) correlates of value and risk in the ventral striatum and anterior cingulate, respectively. Notably, increasing inferior frontal gyrus activity to low risk and safe options correlated with higher risk aversion. Importantly, the combination of these BOLD responses effectively decoded the behavioral choice. Striatal value and cingulate risk responses increased the probability of a risky choice, whereas inferior frontal gyrus responses showed the inverse relationship. These findings suggest that the BOLD correlates of decision factors are appropriate for an ideal observer to detect behavioral choices. More generally, these biological data contribute to the validity of the theoretical decision parameters for actual decisions under risk.

  5. Small- and large-stakes risk aversion: implications of concavity calabration for decision theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cox, J.C.; Sadiraj, V.

    2006-01-01

    A growing literature reports the conclusions that: (a) expected utility theory does not provide a plausible theory of risk aversion for both small-stakes and large-stakes gambles; and (b) this decision theory should be replaced with an alternative theory characterized by loss aversion. This paper

  6. Risk Aversion is Associated with Decision Making among Community-Based Older Persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

    2012-01-01

    Risk aversion is associated with many important decisions among younger and middle aged persons, but the association of risk aversion with decision making has not been well studied among older persons who face some of the most significant decisions of their lives. Using data from 606 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the association of risk aversion with decision making. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $20 to $300 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. Decision making was measured using a 12 item version of the Decision Making Competence Assessment Tool. In a linear regression model adjusted for age, sex, education, and income, greater risk aversion was associated with poorer decision making [estimate = -1.03, standard error (SE) = 0.35, p = 0.003]. Subsequent analyses showed that the association of risk aversion with decision making persisted after adjustment for global cognitive function as well as executive and non-executive cognitive abilities. Similar to findings from studies of younger persons, risk aversion is associated with poorer decision making among older persons who face a myriad of complex and influential decisions.

  7. Predicting Cancer-Prevention Behavior: Disentangling the Effects of Risk Aversion and Risk Perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddel, Mary; Hales, David

    2018-05-16

    Experimental and survey research spanning the last two decades concludes that people who are more risk tolerant are more likely to engage in risky health activities such as smoking and heavy alcohol consumption, and are more likely to be obese. Subjective perceptions of the risk associated with different activities have also been found to be associated with health behaviors. While there are numerous studies that link risk perceptions with risky behavior, it is notable that none of these controls for risk aversion. Similarly, studies that control for risk aversion fail to control for risk misperceptions. We use a survey of 474 men and women to investigate the influence of risk aversion, risk misperceptions, and cognitive ability on the choice to engage in behaviors that either increase or mitigate cancer risk. We measure optimism in two dimensions: baseline optimists are those who inaccurately believe their cancer risk to be below its expert-assessed level, while control optimists are those who believe they can reduce their risk of cancer (by changing their lifestyle choices) to a greater extent than is actually the case. Our results indicate that baseline optimism is significantly and negatively correlated with subjects' tendencies to engage in cancer-risk-reducing behaviors, and positively correlated with risky behaviors. Subjects' control misperceptions also appear to play a role in their tendency to engage in risky and prevention behaviors. When controlling for both of these types of risk misperception, risk aversion plays a much smaller role in determining health behaviors than found in past studies. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Noxious facility impact projection: Incorporating the effects of risk aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieves, L.A.

    1993-01-01

    Developing new sites for noxious facilities has become a complex process with many potential pitfalls. In addition to the need to negotiate conditions acceptable to the host community, siting success may depend on the facility proposer's ability to identify a candidate site that not only meets technical requirements, but that is located in a community or region whose population is not highly averse to the risks associated with the type of facility being proposed. Success may also depend on the proposer accurately assessing potential impacts of the facility and offering an equitable compensation package to the people affected by it. Facility impact assessments, as typically performed, include only the effects of changes in population, employment and economic activity associated with facility construction and operation. Because of their scope, such assessments usually show a short-run, net economic benefit for the host region, making the intensely negative public reaction to some types and locations of facilities seem unreasonable. The impact component excluded from these assessments is the long-run economic effect of public perceptions of facility risk and nuisance characteristics. Recent developments in psychological and economic measurement techniques have opened the possibility of correcting this flaw by incorporating public perceptions in projections of economic impacts from noxious facilities

  9. Patient risk perceptions for carotid endarterectomy: which patients are strongly averse to surgery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosworth, Hayden B; Stechuchak, Karen M; Grambow, Steven C; Oddone, Eugene Z

    2004-07-01

    Patient risk perception for surgery may be central to their willingness to undergo surgery. This study examined potential factors associated with patient aversion of surgery. This is a secondary data analysis of a prospective cohort study that examined patients referred for evaluation of carotid artery stenosis at five Veterans Affairs Medical Centers. The study collected demographic, clinical, and psychosocial information related to surgery. This analysis focused on patient response to a question assessing their aversion to surgery. Among the 1065 individuals, at the time of evaluation for carotid endarterectomy (CEA), 66% of patients had no symptoms, 16% had a transient ischemic attack, and 18% had stroke. Twelve percent of patients referred for CEA evaluation were averse to surgery. In adjusted analyses, increased age, black race, no previous surgery, lower level of chance locus of control, less trust of physicians, and less social support were significantly related to greater likelihood of surgery aversion among individuals referred for CEA evaluation. Patient degree of medical comorbidity and a validated measure of preoperative risk score were not associated with increased aversion to surgery. In previous work, aversion to CEA was associated with lack of receipt of CEA even after accounting for patient clinical appropriateness for surgery. We identified important patient characteristics associated with aversion to CEA. Interventions designed to assist patient decision making should focus on these more complex factors related to CEA aversion rather than the simple explanation of clinical usefulness.

  10. Rationality on the rise: Why relative risk aversion increases with stake size

    OpenAIRE

    Fehr-Duda, Helga; Bruhin, Adrian; Epper, Thomas F.; Schubert, Renate

    2008-01-01

    How does risk tolerance vary with stake size? This important question cannot be adequately answered if framing effects, nonlinear probability weighting, and heterogeneity of preference types are neglected. We show that, contrary to gains, no coherent change in relative risk aversion is observed for losses. The increase in relative risk aversion over gains cannot be captured by the curvature of the utility function. It is driven predominantly by a change in probability weighting of a majority ...

  11. Risk Aversion: As Perceived by U.S. and Swedish Officers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-10

    marginalized traditional morality . (Furedi 1997, 153f) The value of risk aversion means to not put people at risk and to regulate behavior. The main...difference compared to traditional morality lies in the individualistic orientation of risk aversion (Furedi 1997, 163) Ulrich Beck German Professor of...that distinguishes one group of people from another (Hofstede 2005, 3ff). Studying differences in culture demands a position of cultural relativism

  12. The role of risk aversion in non-conscious decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shuo; Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tsuchiya, Naotsugu

    2012-01-01

    To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects' post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk.

  13. Cognitive function is associated with risk aversion in community-based older persons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buchman Aron S

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Emerging data from younger and middle-aged persons suggest that cognitive ability is negatively associated with risk aversion, but this association has not been studied among older persons who are at high risk of experiencing loss of cognitive function. Methods Using data from 369 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the correlates of risk aversion and tested the hypothesis that cognition is negatively associated with risk aversion. Global cognition and five specific cognitive abilities were measured via detailed cognitive testing, and risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15 versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $21.79 to $151.19 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. We first examined the bivariate associations of age, education, sex, income and cognition with risk aversion. Next, we examined the associations between cognition and risk aversion via mixed models adjusted for age, sex, education, and income. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analyses to ensure that our results were not driven by persons with preclinical cognitive impairment. Results In bivariate analyses, sex, education, income and global cognition were associated with risk aversion. However, in a mixed effect model, only sex (estimate = -1.49, standard error (SE = 0.39, p i.e., semantic memory, episodic memory, working memory, and perceptual speed; performance on visuospatial abilities was not. Conclusion A lower level of cognitive ability and female sex are associated with greater risk aversion in advanced age.

  14. Correlations of self-esteem and intolerance of ambiguity with risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johanson, J C

    2000-10-01

    The current paper reports for 80 undergraduates that risk aversion is greater among those with lower self-esteem scores on Rosenberg's Self-esteem Scale and those with higher scores on Budner's Intolerance of Ambiguity Scale.

  15. The Unspoken Consequence of Command, Control Communications Technology: Enhanced Micromanagement by Risk-Averse Commanders

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Carozza, John

    2004-01-01

    .... However, along with its benefits, this command, control and communications (C3) network includes the dangerous consequence of eroding the autonomy of tactical command through enhanced micromanagement by risk-averse operational commanders...

  16. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AND RISK AVERSION RATE FOR SEVERAL STOCK INDICES IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robiyanto Robiyanto

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available There are numerous stock indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Several of them are LQ-45, MBX, DBX, JII, SRI-KEHATI, PEFINDO-25, BISNIS-27, IDX-30 and KOMPAS-100. Unfortunately there are limi­ted researches which have been done to measure those indices performance specifically. The same condition also occurs on risk aversion level usage in Indonesia Stock Exchange, only few numbers of researches use this me­a­surement in the portfolio valuation. Based on that, this research measured the performance and risk aversion rate of those indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results of this study were SRI-KEHATI becomes the best performer with the highest risk aversion rate, while Jakarta Islamic Index (JII produces the lowest positive per­formance with the lowest risk aversion rate. This finding shows that sharia stocks’ characters (i.e. usury free could give relieveness and convenience regardless its per­formance.

  17. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2015-01-01

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  18. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  19. Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…

  20. Low- and high-testosterone individuals exhibit decreased aversion to economic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanton, Steven J; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A; McLaurin, R Edward; Kuhn, Cynthia M; LaBar, Kevin S; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A

    2011-04-01

    Testosterone is positively associated with risk-taking behavior in social domains (e.g., crime, physical aggression). However, the scant research linking testosterone to economic risk preferences presents inconsistent findings. We examined the relationship between endogenous testosterone and individuals' economic preferences (i.e., risk preference, ambiguity preference, and loss aversion) in a large sample (N = 298) of men and women. We found that endogenous testosterone levels have a significant U-shaped association with individuals' risk and ambiguity preferences, but not loss aversion. Specifically, individuals with low or high levels of testosterone (more than 1.5 SD from the mean for their gender) were risk and ambiguity neutral, whereas individuals with intermediate levels of testosterone were risk and ambiguity averse. This relationship was highly similar in men and women. In contrast to received wisdom regarding testosterone and risk, the present data provide the first robust evidence for a nonlinear association between economic preferences and levels of endogenous testosterone.

  1. Neural intrinsic connectivity networks associated with risk aversion in old age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, S Duke; Boyle, Patricia A; Arfanakis, Konstantinos; Fleischman, Debra A; Yu, Lei; Edmonds, Emily C; Bennett, David A

    2012-02-01

    Risk aversion is associated with several important real world outcomes. Although the neurobiological correlates of risk aversion have been studied in young persons, little is known of the neurobiological correlates of risk aversion among older persons. Resting-state functional MRI data were collected on 134 non-demented participants of the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a community-based cohort study of aging. Risk aversion was measured using a series of standard questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing, with potential gains varied across questions. Participants determined to be "high" (n=27) and "low" (n=27) in risk aversion were grouped accordingly. Using a spherical seed region of interest in the anterior cingulate cortex, voxel-wise functional connectivity network similarities were observed in bilateral frontal, anterior and posterior cingulate, insula, basal ganglia, temporal, parietal, and thalamic regions. Differences in functional connectivity were observed such that those low in risk aversion had greater connectivity to clusters in the superior, middle, and medial frontal regions, as well as cerebellar, parietal, occipital, and inferior temporal regions. Those high in risk aversion had greater connectivity to clusters in the inferior and orbital frontal, parahippocampal, and insula regions, as well as thalamic, parietal, precentral gyrus, postcentral gyrus, and middle temporal regions. Similarities and differences in functional connectivity patterns may reflect the historical recruitment of specific brain regions as a network in the active processing of risk in older adults. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Managing Risk Aversion for Low-Carbon Supply Chains with Emission Abatement Outsourcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qinpeng; He, Longfei

    2018-02-21

    Reducing carbon emissions, including emission abatement outsourcing at the supply-chain level, is becoming a significant but challenging problem in practice. Confronting this challenge, we therefore break down the practice to focus on a low-carbon supply chain consisting of one supplier, one manufacturer and one third-party emission-reducing contractor. The contractor offers a carbon reduction service to the manufacturer. In view of the increasing proportion of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions and absence of carbon reduction policies in developing countries, we adopt the prospect of consumers' low-carbon preferences to capture the demand sensitivity on carbon emission. By exploiting the Mean-Variance (MV) model, we develop a supply chain game model considering risk aversion. Comparing the supply chain performances of the cases under risk neutrality and risk aversion, we investigate the impact of the risk aversion of the supplier and the manufacturer on the low-carbon supply chain performances, respectively. We show that the risk aversion of chain members will not influence the relationship underlain by the profit-sharing contract between the manufacturer and contractor, whereas they may extend the supplier's concerning range. Although the manufacturer's risk aversion has a positive impact on the wholesale price, interestingly, the supplier's impact on the wholesale price is negative. Furthermore, we propose a contract to coordinate the risk-averse low-carbon supply chain by tuning the aversion levels of the supplier and the manufacturer, respectively. Through numerical study, we draw on managerial insights for industrial practitioners to adopt a low carbon strategy potentially by managing the risk attitudes along the supply chain channel.

  3. Managing Risk Aversion for Low-Carbon Supply Chains with Emission Abatement Outsourcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qinpeng; He, Longfei

    2018-01-01

    Reducing carbon emissions, including emission abatement outsourcing at the supply-chain level, is becoming a significant but challenging problem in practice. Confronting this challenge, we therefore break down the practice to focus on a low-carbon supply chain consisting of one supplier, one manufacturer and one third-party emission-reducing contractor. The contractor offers a carbon reduction service to the manufacturer. In view of the increasing proportion of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions and absence of carbon reduction policies in developing countries, we adopt the prospect of consumers’ low-carbon preferences to capture the demand sensitivity on carbon emission. By exploiting the Mean-Variance (MV) model, we develop a supply chain game model considering risk aversion. Comparing the supply chain performances of the cases under risk neutrality and risk aversion, we investigate the impact of the risk aversion of the supplier and the manufacturer on the low-carbon supply chain performances, respectively. We show that the risk aversion of chain members will not influence the relationship underlain by the profit-sharing contract between the manufacturer and contractor, whereas they may extend the supplier’s concerning range. Although the manufacturer’s risk aversion has a positive impact on the wholesale price, interestingly, the supplier’s impact on the wholesale price is negative. Furthermore, we propose a contract to coordinate the risk-averse low-carbon supply chain by tuning the aversion levels of the supplier and the manufacturer, respectively. Through numerical study, we draw on managerial insights for industrial practitioners to adopt a low carbon strategy potentially by managing the risk attitudes along the supply chain channel. PMID:29466281

  4. Managing Risk Aversion for Low-Carbon Supply Chains with Emission Abatement Outsourcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinpeng Wang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Reducing carbon emissions, including emission abatement outsourcing at the supply-chain level, is becoming a significant but challenging problem in practice. Confronting this challenge, we therefore break down the practice to focus on a low-carbon supply chain consisting of one supplier, one manufacturer and one third-party emission-reducing contractor. The contractor offers a carbon reduction service to the manufacturer. In view of the increasing proportion of Greenhouse Gases (GHG emissions and absence of carbon reduction policies in developing countries, we adopt the prospect of consumers’ low-carbon preferences to capture the demand sensitivity on carbon emission. By exploiting the Mean-Variance (MV model, we develop a supply chain game model considering risk aversion. Comparing the supply chain performances of the cases under risk neutrality and risk aversion, we investigate the impact of the risk aversion of the supplier and the manufacturer on the low-carbon supply chain performances, respectively. We show that the risk aversion of chain members will not influence the relationship underlain by the profit-sharing contract between the manufacturer and contractor, whereas they may extend the supplier’s concerning range. Although the manufacturer’s risk aversion has a positive impact on the wholesale price, interestingly, the supplier’s impact on the wholesale price is negative. Furthermore, we propose a contract to coordinate the risk-averse low-carbon supply chain by tuning the aversion levels of the supplier and the manufacturer, respectively. Through numerical study, we draw on managerial insights for industrial practitioners to adopt a low carbon strategy potentially by managing the risk attitudes along the supply chain channel.

  5. Risk-Averse Suppliers’ Optimal Pricing Strategies in a Two-Stage Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Shen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-averse suppliers’ optimal pricing strategies in two-stage supply chains under competitive environment are discussed. The suppliers in this paper focus more on losses as compared to profits, and they care their long-term relationship with their customers. We introduce for the suppliers a loss function, which covers both current loss and future loss. The optimal wholesale price is solved under situations of risk neutral, risk averse, and a combination of minimizing loss and controlling risk, respectively. Besides, some properties of and relations among these optimal wholesale prices are given as well. A numerical example is given to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

  6. Risk Aversion and Public Reporting. Part 1: Observations From Cardiac Surgery and Interventional Cardiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahian, David M; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Badhwar, Vinay; D'Agostino, Richard S; Bavaria, Joseph E; Prager, Richard L

    2017-12-01

    Risk aversion is a potential unintended consequence of health care public reporting. In Part 1 of this review, four possible consequences of this phenomenon are discussed, including the denial of interventions to some high-risk patients, stifling of innovation, appropriate avoidance of futile interventions, and better matching of high-risk patients to more capable providers. We also summarize relevant observational clinical reports and survey results from cardiovascular medicine and surgery, the two specialties from which almost all risk aversion observations have been derived. Although these demonstrate that risk aversion does occur, the empirical data are much more consistent and compelling for interventional cardiology than for cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Twins less frequent than expected among male births in risk averse populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karasek, Deborah; Goodman, Julia; Gemmill, Alison; Falconi, April; Hartig, Terry; Magganas, Aristotle; Catalano, Ralph

    2015-06-01

    Male twin gestations exhibit higher incidence of fetal morbidity and mortality than singleton gestations. From an evolutionary perspective, the relatively high rates of infant and child mortality among male twins born into threatening environments reduce the fitness of these gestations, making them more vulnerable to fetal loss. Women do not perceive choosing to spontaneously abort gestations although the outcome may result from estimates, made without awareness, of the risks of continuing a pregnancy. Here, we examine whether the non-conscious decisional biology of gestation can be linked to conscious risk aversion. We test this speculation by measuring the association between household surveys in Sweden that gauge financial risk aversion in the population and the frequency of twins among live male births. We used time-series regression methods to estimate our suspected associations and Box-Jenkins modeling to ensure that autocorrelation did not confound the estimation or reduce its efficiency. We found, consistent with theory, that financial risk aversion in the population correlates inversely with the odds of a twin among Swedish males born two months later. The odds of a twin among males fell by approximately 3.5% two months after unexpectedly great risk aversion in the population. This work implies that shocks that affect population risk aversion carry implications for fetal loss in vulnerable twin pregnancies.

  8. Heightened aversion to risk and loss in depressed patients with a suicide attempt history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Kwangyeol; Kwon, JaeHyung; Chae, Jeong-Ho; Chung, Yong An; Kralik, Jerald D; Min, Jung-Ah; Huh, HyuJung; Choi, Kyung Mook; Jang, Kuk-In; Lee, Na-Bin; Kim, Sunyoung; Peterson, Bradley S; Jeong, Jaeseung

    2017-09-11

    Suicide attempters have been found to be impaired in decision-making; however, their specific biases in evaluating uncertain outcomes remain unclear. Here we tested the hypothesis that suicidal behavior is associated with heightened aversion to risk and loss, which might produce negative predictions about uncertain future events. Forty-five depressed patients with a suicide attempt history, 47 nonsuicidal depressed patients, and 75 healthy controls participated in monetary decision-making tasks assessing risk and loss aversion. Suicide attempters compared with the other groups exhibited greater aversion to both risk and loss during gambles involving potential loss. Risk and loss aversion correlated with each other in the depressed patients, suggesting that a common pathophysiological mechanism underlies these biases. In addition, emotion regulation via suppression, a detrimental emotional control strategy, was positively correlated with loss aversion in the depressed patients, also implicating impairment in regulatory processes. A preliminary fMRI study also found disrupted neural responses to potential gains and losses in the subgenual anterior cingulate cortex, insula cortex, and left amygdala, brain regions involved in valuation, emotion reactivity, and emotion regulation. The findings thus implicate heightened negative valuation in decision-making under risk, and impaired emotion regulation in depressed patients with a history of suicide attempts.

  9. Electricity capacity investment under risk aversion: A case study of coal, gas, and concentrated solar power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan Lin; Norman, Catherine S.; Patt, Anthony G.

    2012-01-01

    The policy instrument many economists favor to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to shift new investment towards low carbon technologies is the tradable allowance system. Experience with this instrument has been mixed, with a crucial design issue being the choice of whether to auction allowances to firms, or to grandfather them based on historical emissions. In this paper, we examine the changing incentives of investment in different technologies, when investors are risk averse and are expecting an allowance system with a certain allocation rule but do not know if the policy is going to take place in the near future. Investors also cannot fully predict future investment costs for the low-carbon technology. We apply a game theoretic model to examine the combined effects of uncertainty and risk aversion on the actions of potential investors into high and low carbon generating capacity, under both allocation rules and uncertain costs. We find that uncertainty and risk aversion do have implications towards investment incentives. We discuss policy implications of these findings. - Highlights: ► We examined capacity investments under alternative carbon permit allocation schemes. ► Uncertainty in future permit markets’ existence reduces investments into renewables. ► If permits are grandfathered, risk averse companies decrease renewable investment. ► Risk aversion minimizes the effects of uncertainty if carbon permits are auctioned.

  10. Cross-sectional survey: risk-averse French general practitioners are more favorable toward influenza vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massin, Sophie; Ventelou, Bruno; Nebout, Antoine; Verger, Pierre; Pulcini, Céline

    2015-01-29

    We tested the following hypotheses: (i) risk-averse general practitioners (GPs) are more likely to be vaccinated against influenza; (ii) and risk-averse GPs recommend influenza vaccination more often to their patients. In risk-averse GPs, the perceived benefits of the vaccine and/or the perceived risks of the infectious disease might indeed outweigh the perceived risks of the vaccine. In 2010-2012, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of a nationwide French representative sample of 1136 GPs. Multivariate analyses adjusted for four stratification variables (age, gender, urban/suburban/rural practice location and annual patient consultations) and for GPs' characteristics (group/solo practice, and occasional practice of alternative medicine, e.g., homeopathy) looked for associations between their risk attitudes and self-reported vaccination behavior. Individual risk attitudes were expressed as a continuous variable, from 0 (risk-tolerant) to 10 (risk-averse). Overall, 69% of GPs reported that they were very favorable toward vaccination in general. Self-reported vaccination coverage was 78% for 2009/2010 seasonal influenza and 62% for A/H1N1 pandemic influenza. Most GPs (72%) reported recommending the pandemic influenza vaccination to at-risk young adults in 2009, but few than half (42%) to young adults not at risk. In multivariate analyses, risk-averse GPs were more often vaccinated against seasonal (marginal effect=1.3%, P=0.02) and pandemic influenza (marginal effect=1.5%, P=0.02). Risk-averse GPs recommended the pandemic influenza vaccination more often than their more risk-tolerant colleagues to patients without risk factors (marginal effect=1.7%, P=0.01), but not to their at-risk patients and were more favorable toward vaccination in general (marginal effect=1.5%, P=0.04). Individual risk attitudes may influence GPs' practices regarding influenza vaccination, both for themselves and their patients. Our results suggest that risk-averse GPs may perceive the risks

  11. Risk-Averse Evolutionary Game Model of Aviation Joint Emergency Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Pan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We study effects of risk-averse attitude of both participators in aviation joint emergency response on the coevolution of cooperation mechanisms and individual preferences between airport and nonprofit organization. First, based on the current aviation joint emergency mechanism in China, we put forward two mechanisms to select the joint nonprofit organization, including reputation cooperation and bidding competition. Meanwhile, we consider two preferences including altruism and selfishness. Then we build replicator dynamics equations using the theory of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR taking risk aversion attitude into account. Finally, we introduce the factor of government and give all participators some suggestions. We show that the risk-averse attitude of the other game participator affects the one participator’s decision and the effects subject to some parameters.

  12. Gender differences in sleep deprivation effects on risk and inequality aversion: evidence from an economic experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrara, Michele; Bottasso, Anna; Tempesta, Daniela; Carrieri, Marika; De Gennaro, Luigi; Ponti, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    Excessive working hours--even at night--are becoming increasingly common in our modern 24/7 society. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is particularly vulnerable to the effects of sleep loss and, consequently, the specific behaviors subserved by the functional integrity of the PFC, such as risk-taking and pro-social behavior, may be affected significantly. This paper seeks to assess the effects of one night of sleep deprivation on subjects' risk and social preferences, which are probably the most explored behavioral domains in the tradition of Experimental Economics. This novel cross-over study employs thirty-two university students (gender-balanced) participating to 2 counterbalanced laboratory sessions in which they perform standard risk and social preference elicitation protocols. One session was after one night of undisturbed sleep at home, and the other was after one night of sleep deprivation in the laboratory. Sleep deprivation causes increased sleepiness and decreased alertness in all subjects. After sleep loss males make riskier decisions compared to the rested condition, while females do the opposite. Females likewise show decreased inequity aversion after sleep deprivation. As for the relationship between cognitive ability and economic decisions, sleep deprived individuals with higher cognitive reflection show lower risk aversion and more altruistic behavior. These results show that one night of sleep deprivation alters economic behavior in a gender-sensitive way. Females' reaction to sleep deprivation, characterized by reduced risky choices and increased egoism compared to males, may be related to intrinsic psychological gender differences, such as in the way men and women weigh up probabilities in their decision-making, and/or to the different neurofunctional substrate of their decision-making.

  13. Gender Differences in Sleep Deprivation Effects on Risk and Inequality Aversion: Evidence from an Economic Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrara, Michele; Bottasso, Anna; Tempesta, Daniela; Carrieri, Marika; De Gennaro, Luigi; Ponti, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    Excessive working hours—even at night—are becoming increasingly common in our modern 24/7 society. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is particularly vulnerable to the effects of sleep loss and, consequently, the specific behaviors subserved by the functional integrity of the PFC, such as risk-taking and pro-social behavior, may be affected significantly. This paper seeks to assess the effects of one night of sleep deprivation on subjects’ risk and social preferences, which are probably the most explored behavioral domains in the tradition of Experimental Economics. This novel cross-over study employs thirty-two university students (gender-balanced) participating to 2 counterbalanced laboratory sessions in which they perform standard risk and social preference elicitation protocols. One session was after one night of undisturbed sleep at home, and the other was after one night of sleep deprivation in the laboratory. Sleep deprivation causes increased sleepiness and decreased alertness in all subjects. After sleep loss males make riskier decisions compared to the rested condition, while females do the opposite. Females likewise show decreased inequity aversion after sleep deprivation. As for the relationship between cognitive ability and economic decisions, sleep deprived individuals with higher cognitive reflection show lower risk aversion and more altruistic behavior. These results show that one night of sleep deprivation alters economic behavior in a gender-sensitive way. Females’ reaction to sleep deprivation, characterized by reduced risky choices and increased egoism compared to males, may be related to intrinsic psychological gender differences, such as in the way men and women weigh up probabilities in their decision-making, and/or to the different neurofunctional substrate of their decision-making. PMID:25793869

  14. Gender differences in sleep deprivation effects on risk and inequality aversion: evidence from an economic experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Ferrara

    Full Text Available Excessive working hours--even at night--are becoming increasingly common in our modern 24/7 society. The prefrontal cortex (PFC is particularly vulnerable to the effects of sleep loss and, consequently, the specific behaviors subserved by the functional integrity of the PFC, such as risk-taking and pro-social behavior, may be affected significantly. This paper seeks to assess the effects of one night of sleep deprivation on subjects' risk and social preferences, which are probably the most explored behavioral domains in the tradition of Experimental Economics. This novel cross-over study employs thirty-two university students (gender-balanced participating to 2 counterbalanced laboratory sessions in which they perform standard risk and social preference elicitation protocols. One session was after one night of undisturbed sleep at home, and the other was after one night of sleep deprivation in the laboratory. Sleep deprivation causes increased sleepiness and decreased alertness in all subjects. After sleep loss males make riskier decisions compared to the rested condition, while females do the opposite. Females likewise show decreased inequity aversion after sleep deprivation. As for the relationship between cognitive ability and economic decisions, sleep deprived individuals with higher cognitive reflection show lower risk aversion and more altruistic behavior. These results show that one night of sleep deprivation alters economic behavior in a gender-sensitive way. Females' reaction to sleep deprivation, characterized by reduced risky choices and increased egoism compared to males, may be related to intrinsic psychological gender differences, such as in the way men and women weigh up probabilities in their decision-making, and/or to the different neurofunctional substrate of their decision-making.

  15. Estimation of Esfarayen Farmers Risk Aversion Coefficient and Its Influencing Factors (Nonparametric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Nematollahi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Due to existence of the risk and uncertainty in agriculture, risk management is crucial for management in agriculture. Therefore the present study was designed to determine the risk aversion coefficient for Esfarayens farmers. Materials and Methods: The following approaches have been utilized to assess risk attitudes: (1 direct elicitation of utility functions, (2 experimental procedures in which individuals are presented with hypothetical questionnaires regarding risky alternatives with or without real payments and (3: Inference from observation of economic behavior. In this paper, we focused on approach (3: inference from observation of economic behavior, based on this assumption of existence of the relationship between the actual behavior of a decision maker and the behavior predicted from empirically specified models. A new non-parametric method and the QP method were used to calculate the coefficient of risk aversion. We maximized the decision maker expected utility with the E-V formulation (Freund, 1956. Ideally, in constructing a QP model, the variance-covariance matrix should be formed for each individual farmer. For this purpose, a sample of 100 farmers was selected using random sampling and their data about 14 products of years 2008- 2012 were assembled. The lowlands of Esfarayen were used since within this area, production possibilities are rather homogeneous. Results and Discussion: The results of this study showed that there was low correlation between some of the activities, which implies opportunities for income stabilization through diversification. With respect to transitory income, Ra, vary from 0.000006 to 0.000361 and the absolute coefficient of risk aversion in our sample were 0.00005. The estimated Ra values vary considerably from farm to farm. The results showed that the estimated Ra for the subsample existing of 'non-wealthy' farmers was 0.00010. The subsample with farmers in the 'wealthy' group had an

  16. Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price. Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lappi, Pauli; Ollikka, Kimmo; Ollikainen, Markku

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO 2 -intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO 2 -intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion. (author)

  17. Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price. Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lappi, Pauli; Ollikka, Kimmo; Ollikainen, Markku [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland)

    2010-02-15

    This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO{sub 2}-intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO{sub 2}-intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion. (author)

  18. Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price: Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lappi, Pauli, E-mail: pauli.lappi@helsinki.f [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland); Ollikka, Kimmo, E-mail: kimmo.ollikka@helsinki.f [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland); Ollikainen, Markku, E-mail: markku.ollikainen@helsinki.f [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland)

    2010-02-15

    This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO{sub 2}-intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO{sub 2}-intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion.

  19. Conformists or Rebels? Relative Risk Aversion, Educational Decisions, and Social Class Reproduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier

    2012-01-01

    This paper tests the theory of Relative Risk Aversion (RRA), which argues that educational decisions are intended to minimize the risk of downward social class mobility. We propose a structural model which distinguishes the instantaneous utility of educational decisions from the future utility...

  20. Financial literacy, risk aversion and choice of mortgage type by households

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cox, R.; Brounen, Dirk; Neuteboom, P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes how financial literacy and reported willingness to take financial risk impact a household’s choice of mortgage type. The results show that households reporting higher financial literacy and lower risk aversion are 55 to 97 % more likely to opt for interest-only mortgages. The

  1. Optimal investment and indifference pricing when risk aversion is not monotone: SAHARA utility functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, A.; Pelsser, A.; Vellekoop, M.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract. We develop a new class of utility functions, SAHARA utility, with the dis- tinguishing feature that they implement the assumption that agents may become less risk-averse for very low values of wealth. This means that SAHARA utility can be used to characterize risk gambling behavior of an

  2. Negative learning bias is associated with risk aversion in a genetic animal model of depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabel, Steven J; Murphy, Ryan T; Malinow, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The lateral habenula (LHb) is activated by aversive stimuli and the omission of reward, inhibited by rewarding stimuli and is hyperactive in helpless rats-an animal model of depression. Here we test the hypothesis that congenital learned helpless (cLH) rats are more sensitive to decreases in reward size and/or less sensitive to increases in reward than wild-type (WT) control rats. Consistent with the hypothesis, we found that cLH rats were slower to switch preference between two responses after a small upshift in reward size on one of the responses but faster to switch their preference after a small downshift in reward size. cLH rats were also more risk-averse than WT rats-they chose a response delivering a constant amount of reward ("safe" response) more often than a response delivering a variable amount of reward ("risky" response) compared to WT rats. Interestingly, the level of bias toward negative events was associated with the rat's level of risk aversion when compared across individual rats. cLH rats also showed impaired appetitive Pavlovian conditioning but more accurate responding in a two-choice sensory discrimination task. These results are consistent with a negative learning bias and risk aversion in cLH rats, suggesting abnormal processing of rewarding and aversive events in the LHb of cLH rats.

  3. Optimal Ordering Policy of a Risk-Averse Retailer Subject to Inventory Inaccuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijing Zhu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Inventory inaccuracy refers to the discrepancy between the actual inventory and the recorded inventory information. Inventory inaccuracy is prevalent in retail stores. It may result in a higher inventory level or poor customer service. Earlier studies of inventory inaccuracy have traditionally assumed risk-neutral retailers whose objective is to maximize expected profits. We investigate a risk-averse retailer within a newsvendor framework. The risk aversion attitude is measured by conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR. We consider inventory inaccuracy stemming both from permanent shrinkage and temporary shrinkage. Two scenarios of reducing inventory shrinkage are presented. In the first scenario, the retailer conducts physical inventory audits to identify the discrepancy. In the second scenario, the retailer deploys an automatic tracking technology, radiofrequency identification (RFID, to reduce inventory shrinkage. With the CVaR criterion, we propose optimal policies for the two scenarios. We show monotonicity between the retailer’s ordering policy and his risk aversion degree. A numerical analysis provides managerial insights for risk-averse retailers considering investing in RFID technology.

  4. Priority setting in health care: disentangling risk aversion from inequality aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echazu, Luciana; Nocetti, Diego

    2013-06-01

    In this paper, we introduce a tractable social welfare function that is rich enough to disentangle attitudes towards risk in health outcomes from attitudes towards health inequalities across individuals. Given this preference specification, we evaluate how the introduction of uncertainty over the severity of illness and over the effectiveness of treatments affects the optimal allocation of healthcare resources. We show that the way in which uncertainty affects the optimal allocation within our proposed specification may differ sharply from that in the standard expected utility framework. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Impact of Risk Aversion on Price and Quality Decisions under Demand Uncertainty via the CARA Utility Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinqin Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates optimal price and quality decisions of a manufacturer-retailer supply chain under demand uncertainty, in which players are both risk-averse decision makers. The manufacturer determines the wholesale price and quality of the product, and the retailer determines the retail price. By means of game theory, we employ the constant absolute risk aversion (CARA function to analyze two different supply chain structures, that is, manufacturer Stackelberg model (MS and retailer Stackelberg model (RS. We then analyze the results to explore the effects of risk aversion of the manufacturer and the retailer upon the equilibrium decisions. Our results imply that both the risk aversion of the manufacturer and the retailer play an important role in the price and quality decisions. We find that, in general, in MS and RS models, the optimal wholesale price and quality decrease with the risk aversion of the manufacturer but increase with the risk aversion of the retailer, while the retail price decreases with the risk aversion of the manufacturer as well as the retailer. We also examine the impact of quality cost coefficient on the optimal decisions. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the different degree of effects of players’ risk aversion on equilibrium results and to compare results in different models considered.

  6. Impact of gender and personality traits (BFI-10) on risk-aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pavlicek, Antonin; Sudzina, Frantisek

    2017-01-01

    The paper investigates impact of gender and personality traits on risk-aversion. The research was conducted in the Czech Republic using an on-line questionnaire. Data were collected between December 2016 and January 2017. Big Five Inventory-10 was used to measure personality traits. A validated...

  7. A simultaneous approach to the estimation of risk aversion and the subjective time discount rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, A.S.; van Praag, B.M.S.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we analyze a sample of 1832 individuals who responded to six randomly generated lottery questions that differ with respect to chance, prize and the timing of the draw. Using a model that explicitly allows for consumption smoothing, we obtain an estimate of relative risk aversion of 82.

  8. A note on risk aversion and labour market outcomes: further evidence from German survey data

    OpenAIRE

    Pfeifer, Christian

    2008-01-01

    Using the large-scale German Socio-Economic Panel, this note reports direct empirical evidence for significant correlations between risk aversion and labour market outcomes (full-time employment, temporary agency work, fixed-term contracts, employer change, quits, training, wages, and job satisfaction).

  9. Risk Aversion and Effort in an Incentive Pay Scheme with Multiplicative Noise: Theory and Experimental Evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N.V. Zubanov (Nick)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe application of the classical "linear" model of incentive pay to the case when the noise is multiplicative to effort generates two predictions for a given strength of incentives: 1) more risk-averse workers will put in less effort, and 2) setting a performance target will weaken the

  10. The Emotional Information Processing System is Risk Averse: Ego-Depletion and Investment Behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. de Langhe (Bart); S.T.L.R. Sweldens (Steven); S.M.J. van Osselaer (Stijn); M.A. Tuk (Mirjam)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractTwo experiments show that a shortage of self-regulatory resources results in more risk aversion in mixed-gamble (gain/loss) situations. The findings support a dual process view that distinguishes between a rational and an affective information processing system, in which self-regulatory

  11. Risk-averse formulations and methods for a virtual power plant

    KAUST Repository

    Lima, Ricardo M.; Conejo, Antonio J.; Langodan, Sabique; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we address the optimal operation of a virtual power plant using stochastic programming. We consider one risk-neutral and two risk-averse formulations that rely on the conditional value at risk. To handle large-scale problems, we implement two decomposition methods with variants using single- and multiple-cuts. We propose the utilization of wind ensembles obtained from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to quantify the uncertainty of the wind forecast. We present detailed results relative to the computational performance of the risk-averse formulations, the decomposition methods, and risk management and sensitivities analysis as a function of the number of scenarios and risk parameters. The implementation of the two decomposition methods relies on the parallel solution of subproblems, which turns out to be paramount for computational efficiency. The results show that one of the two decomposition methods is the most efficient.

  12. Risk-averse formulations and methods for a virtual power plant

    KAUST Repository

    Lima, Ricardo M.

    2017-12-15

    In this paper we address the optimal operation of a virtual power plant using stochastic programming. We consider one risk-neutral and two risk-averse formulations that rely on the conditional value at risk. To handle large-scale problems, we implement two decomposition methods with variants using single- and multiple-cuts. We propose the utilization of wind ensembles obtained from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to quantify the uncertainty of the wind forecast. We present detailed results relative to the computational performance of the risk-averse formulations, the decomposition methods, and risk management and sensitivities analysis as a function of the number of scenarios and risk parameters. The implementation of the two decomposition methods relies on the parallel solution of subproblems, which turns out to be paramount for computational efficiency. The results show that one of the two decomposition methods is the most efficient.

  13. Optimal combined purchasing strategies for a risk-averse manufacturer under price uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiao Wu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of our paper is to analyze optimal purchasing strategies when a manufacturer can buy raw materials from a long-term contract supplier and a spot market under spot price uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach: This procurement model can be solved by using dynamic programming. First, we maximize the DM’s utility of the second period, obtaining the optimal contract quantity and spot quantity for the second period. Then, maximize the DM’s utility of both periods, obtaining the optimal purchasing strategy for the first period. We use a numerical method to compare the performance level of a pure spot sourcing strategy with that of a mixed strategy. Findings: Our results show that optimal purchasing strategies vary with the trend of contract prices. If the contract price falls, the total quantity purchased in period 1 will decrease in the degree of risk aversion. If the contract price increases, the total quantity purchased in period 1 will increase in the degree of risk aversion. The relationship between the optimal contract quantity and the degree of risk aversion depends on whether the expected spot price or the contract price is larger in period 2. Finally, we compare the performance levels between a combined strategy and a spot sourcing strategy. It shows that a combined strategy is optimal for a risk-averse buyer. Originality/value: It’s challenging to deal with a two-period procurement problem with risk consideration. We have obtained results of a two-period procurement problem with two sourcing options, namely contract procurement and spot purchases. Our model incorporates the buyer’s risk aversion factor and the change of contract prices, which are not addressed in early studies.

  14. Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanju Zhou

    Full Text Available This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR, a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

  15. Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yanju; Chen, Qian; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Zongrun

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

  16. Five-year-olds do not show ambiguity aversion in a risk and ambiguity task with physical objects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Rosa; Roberts, Rachel C; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

    2017-07-01

    Ambiguity aversion arises when a decision maker prefers risky gambles with known probabilities over equivalent ambiguous gambles with unknown probabilities. This phenomenon has been consistently observed in adults across a large body of empirical work. Evaluating ambiguity aversion in young children, however, has posed methodological challenges because probabilistic representations appropriate for adults might not be understood by young children. Here, we established a novel method for representing risk and ambiguity with physical objects that overcomes previous methodological limitations and allows us to measure ambiguity aversion in young children. We found that individual 5-year-olds exhibited consistent choice preferences and, as a group, exhibited no ambiguity aversion in a task that evokes ambiguity aversion in adults. Across individuals, 5-year-olds exhibited greater variance in ambiguity preferences compared with adults tested under similar conditions. This suggests that ambiguity aversion is absent during early childhood and emerges over the course of development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk aversion and willingness to pay for energy efficient systems in rental apartments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farsi, Mehdi [Centre for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich, Zuerichbergstr. 18, Zurich 8032 (Switzerland)

    2010-06-15

    This paper uses a random utility model to estimate consumers' valuation of energy efficient insulation and ventilation systems in rental apartments. Given consumers' limited experience in residential buildings and the perceived uncertainty about their comfort benefits and resulting energy savings, these relatively new technologies might be undervalued by risk-averse consumers. Using the concept of certainty-equivalence, this paper proposes a model to assess the consumers' risk-aversion for adopting energy-efficient systems. These systems are treated as risky assets while conventional commodities are assumed to be risk-free. The curvature of the utility function is interpreted as a measure of aversion to perceived risks as opposed to explicit risks measured by observed variances. The proposed formulation is applicable in stated preference data with qualitative variables. The model is applied to data from a choice experiment conducted among 264 apartment tenants in Switzerland. The estimated curvatures reject the risk-neutrality hypothesis. The range of the estimated risk premiums suggests that risk considerations remain a central issue in dealing with energy efficiency in residential buildings. The analysis also indicates that assuming same risk attitudes toward new and conventional systems could bias the estimates of the willingness to pay, especially when the system is comprised of several components. (author)

  18. Risk aversion and willingness to pay for energy efficient systems in rental apartments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farsi, Mehdi

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses a random utility model to estimate consumers' valuation of energy efficient insulation and ventilation systems in rental apartments. Given consumers' limited experience in residential buildings and the perceived uncertainty about their comfort benefits and resulting energy savings, these relatively new technologies might be undervalued by risk-averse consumers. Using the concept of certainty-equivalence, this paper proposes a model to assess the consumers' risk-aversion for adopting energy-efficient systems. These systems are treated as risky assets while conventional commodities are assumed to be risk-free. The curvature of the utility function is interpreted as a measure of aversion to perceived risks as opposed to explicit risks measured by observed variances. The proposed formulation is applicable in stated preference data with qualitative variables. The model is applied to data from a choice experiment conducted among 264 apartment tenants in Switzerland. The estimated curvatures reject the risk-neutrality hypothesis. The range of the estimated risk premiums suggests that risk considerations remain a central issue in dealing with energy efficiency in residential buildings. The analysis also indicates that assuming same risk attitudes toward new and conventional systems could bias the estimates of the willingness to pay, especially when the system is comprised of several components.

  19. A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. -- Highlights: → We model uncertainties on energy market prices and wind power production. → A hybrid intelligent approach generates price-wind power scenarios. → Risk aversion is also incorporated in the proposed stochastic programming approach. → A realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, is provided. → Our approach allows selecting the best solution according to the desired risk exposure level.

  20. Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Mark J. Ducey; Robert A. Haack; Marty Siltanen; Kirsty Wilson

    2013-01-01

    Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique...

  1. Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan D James

    Full Text Available Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9 years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03. More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002 and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006. Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015 and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026 persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment; the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078. These findings are consistent with the

  2. Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Bryan D; Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Han, S Duke; Bennett, David A

    2015-01-01

    Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9) years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03). More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002) and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006). Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015) and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026) persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment); the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that

  3. Explaining Asset Prices with Low Risk Aversion and Low Intertemporal Substitution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller; Jørgensen, Kasper

    model to explain asset prices with a low relative risk aversion (RRA) of 9.8 and a low intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) of 0:11. We also show that the proposed preferences allow an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to match the equity premium, the bond premium, and the risk-free rate......This paper extends the class of Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences with a new utility kernel that disentangles uncertainty about the consumption trend (long-run risk) from short-term variation around this trend (cyclical risk). Our estimation results show that these preferences enable the long-run risk...

  4. On the descriptive value of loss aversion in decisions under risk: Six clarifications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eyal Ert

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies of loss aversion in decisions under risk have led to mixed results. Losses appear to loom larger than gains in some settings, but not in others. The current paper clarifies these results by highlighting six experimental manipulations that tend to increase the likelihood of the behavior predicted by loss aversion. These manipulations include: (1 framing of the safe alternative as the status quo; (2 ensuring that the choice pattern predicted by loss aversion maximizes the probability of positive (rather than zero or negative outcomes; (3 the use of high nominal (numerical payoffs; (4 the use of high stakes; (5 the inclusion of highly attractive risky prospects that creates a contrast effect; and (6 the use of long experiments in which no feedback is provided and in which the computation of the expected values is difficult. In addition, the results suggest the possibility of learning in the absence of feedback: The tendency to select simple strategies, like ``maximize the worst outcome'' which implies ``loss aversion'', increases when this behavior is not costly. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

  5. Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denys Yemshanov

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse course of action. We presented a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker.We demonstrated the method by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the U.S. states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood by visitors to U.S. federal campgrounds. We tested the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritized regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employed, respectively, first- and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporated the notion of risk aversion. We then identified regions in the study area where the pest risk value changed considerably after incorporating risk aversion.While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate-risk areas. In general, the second-order stochastic dominance method assigned lower risk rankings to moderate-risk areas. Overall, this new method offers a better strategy to deal with the uncertainty typically associated with risk assessments and provides a tractable way to incorporate decision-making preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about a pest organism of concern. Incorporation of risk aversion also helps prioritize the set of locations to target for inspections and

  6. Reward salience and risk aversion underlie differential ACC activity in substance dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, William H; Fukunaga, Rena; Finn, Peter; Brown, Joshua W

    2015-01-01

    The medial prefrontal cortex, especially the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), has long been implicated in cognitive control and error processing. Although the association between ACC and behavior has been established, it is less clear how ACC contributes to dysfunctional behavior such as substance dependence. Evidence from neuroimaging studies investigating ACC function in substance users is mixed, with some studies showing disengagement of ACC in substance dependent individuals (SDs), while others show increased ACC activity related to substance use. In this study, we investigate ACC function in SDs and healthy individuals performing a change signal task for monetary rewards. Using a priori predictions derived from a recent computational model of ACC, we find that ACC activity differs between SDs and controls in factors related to reward salience and risk aversion between SDs and healthy individuals. Quantitative fits of a computational model to fMRI data reveal significant differences in best fit parameters for reward salience and risk preferences. Specifically, the ACC in SDs shows greater risk aversion, defined as concavity in the utility function, and greater attention to rewards relative to reward omission. Furthermore, across participants risk aversion and reward salience are positively correlated. The results clarify the role that ACC plays in both the reduced sensitivity to omitted rewards and greater reward valuation in SDs. Clinical implications of applying computational modeling in psychiatry are also discussed.

  7. Female babies and risk-aversion: Causal evidence from hospital wards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pogrebna, Ganna; Oswald, Andrew J; Haig, David

    2018-03-01

    Using ultrasound scan data from paediatric hospitals, and the exogenous 'shock' of learning the gender of an unborn baby, the paper documents the first causal evidence that offspring gender affects adult risk-aversion. On a standard Holt-Laury criterion, parents of daughters, whether unborn or recently born, become almost twice as risk-averse as parents of sons. The study demonstrates this in longitudinal and cross-sectional data, for fathers and mothers, for babies in the womb and new-born children, and in a West European nation and East European nation. These findings may eventually aid our understanding of risky health behaviors and gender inequalities. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Application of a General Risk Management Model to Portfolio Optimization Problems with Elliptical Distributed Returns for Risk Neutral and Risk Averse Decision Makers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Kaynar; S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper portfolio problems with linear loss functions and multivariate elliptical distributed returns are studied. We consider two risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Value-at-Risk, and two types of decision makers, risk neutral and risk averse. For Value-at-Risk, we show

  9. PERAN PRODUCT CUES AND RISK AVERSION PADA PURCHASE INTENTION DAN POST PURCHASE FEELINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Rejeki Ekasasi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available AbstractThe research aimed to investigate the influence of extrinsic cues and intrinsic cues and risk aversion towards purchase intention and post-purchase feeling of counterfeited computer software and music CD. This research study collected data from two populations which are students and employee. Approximately 128 respondents involved to give respond for the survey. The analysis using Structural Equation Model (SEM show that product cues and risk aversion give different significant impact towards purchase intention and post-purchase feeling of counterfeited computer software and music CD. The research concluded that risk aversion and extrinsic cues has a significant influence to purchase intention of counterfeited computer software while it does not appear similar result to music CD. Moreover, the study revealed that for both counterfeited computer software and music CD, the purchase intention is proven to have negative significant influence towards post-purchase feelings.Keywords: risk aversion, extrinsic cues, intrinsic cues, purchase intention, post-purchase feelingsAbstrakTujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk melihat pengaruh atribut ekstrinsik dan intrinsic produk serta aspek menolak resiko terhadap niat beli dan perasaan paska beli software computer dan CD music bajakan. Penelitian ini diharapkan akan memperoleh sebuah model dengan pendekatan cultural dan strategi bisnis untuk memblokir atau mengurangi produk bajakan yang dapat diakses konsumen di pasar. Data primer akan dikumpulkan dari dua populasi, kelompok mahasiswa dan kelompok pekerja, dari empat kota besar di Indonesia yaitu Jakarta, Semarang, Surabaya, dan Yogyakarta. Lebih kurang 128 responden terlibat dalam penelitian ini. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa aspek atribut produk yang bersifat ekstrinsik dan aspek menolak resiko terbukti memiliki hubungan signifikan mempengaruhi niat beli software computer, akan tetapi lain tidak demikian pada niat beli CD music bajakan

  10. Optimal Management of Supply Disruptions when Contracting with Unreliable, Risk-averse, Suppliers

    OpenAIRE

    Parlane, Sarah; Tsai, Ying-Yi

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the optimal management of supply disruptions by a manufacturer who uses order inflation and/or investments in process reliability when contracting two risk-averse suppliers. We consider that these investments can be subject to moral hazard. Technically we solve a newsvendor optimization problem using a random capacity model of disruption. In such a model, the order size does not affect the average production but impacts the probability of disruption. When investments a...

  11. Who's Afraid of the Big Bad Wolf? Risk Aversion and Gender Discrimination in Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jason Hartford and Nic Spearman

    2014-01-01

    This study exploits a natural experiment to evaluate the gender bias effect associated with negative marking due to gender-differentiated risk aversion. This approach avoids framing effects that characterize experimental evaluation of negative marking assessments. Evidence of a gender bias against female students is found. Quantile regressions indicate that female students in higher quantiles are substantially more adversely affected by negative marking. This distribution effect has been over...

  12. From risk-seeking to risk-averse: The development of economic risk preference from early childhood to adulthood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Paulsen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Adolescence is often described as a period of heightened risk-taking. Adolescents are notorious for impulsivity, emotional volatility, and risky behaviors such as drinking under the influence of alcohol. By contrast, we found that risk-taking declines linearly from childhood to adulthood when individuals make choices over monetary gambles. Further, with age we found increases in the sensitivity to economic risk, defined as the degree to which a preference for assured monetary gains over a risky payoff depends upon the variability in the risky payoff. These findings indicate that decisions about economic risk may follow a different developmental trajectory than other kinds of risk taking, and that changes in sensitivity to risk may be a major factor in the development of mature risk aversion.

  13. Aversive effects of ethanol in adolescent versus adult rats: potential causes and implication for future drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schramm-Sapyta, Nicole L; DiFeliceantonio, Alexandra G; Foscue, Ethan; Glowacz, Susan; Haseeb, Naadeyah; Wang, Nancy; Zhou, Cathy; Kuhn, Cynthia M

    2010-12-01

    Many people experiment with alcohol and other drugs of abuse during their teenage years. Epidemiological evidence suggests that younger initiates into drug taking are more likely to develop problematic drug seeking behavior, including binge and other high-intake behaviors. The level of drug intake for any individual depends on the balance of rewarding and aversive effects of the drug in that individual. Multiple rodent studies have demonstrated that aversive effects of drugs of abuse are reduced in adolescent compared to adult animals. In this study, we addressed 2 key questions: First, do reduced aversive effects of ethanol in younger rats correlate with increased ethanol consumption? Second, are the reduced aversive effects in adolescents attributable to reduced sensitivity to ethanol's physiologic effects? Adolescent and adult rats were tested for ethanol conditioned taste aversion (CTA) followed by a voluntary drinking period, including postdeprivation consumption. Multivariate regression was used to assess correlations. In separate experiments, adolescent and adult rats were tested for their sensitivity to the hypothermic and sedative effects of ethanol, and for blood ethanol concentrations (BECs). We observed that in adolescent rats but not adults, taste aversion was inversely correlated with postdeprivation consumption. Adolescents also exhibited a greater increase in consumption after deprivation than adults. Furthermore, the age difference in ethanol CTA was not attributable to differences in hypothermia, sedation, or BECs. These results suggest that during adolescence, individuals that are insensitive to aversive effects are most likely to develop problem drinking behaviors. These results underscore the importance of the interaction between developmental stage and individual variation in sensitivity to alcohol. Copyright © 2010 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  14. Potential Impact of Risk and Loss Aversion on the Process of Accepting Kidneys for Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilman, Raymond L; Green, Ellen P; Reddy, Kunam S; Moss, Adyr; Kaplan, Bruce

    2017-07-01

    Behavioral economic theory suggests that people make decisions based on maximizing perceived value; however, this may be influenced more by the risk of loss rather than of potential gain. Additionally, individuals may seek certainty over uncertainty. These are termed loss aversion and risk aversion, respectively. Loss aversion is particularly sensitive to how the decision is "framed." Thus, labeling a kidney as high Kidney Donor Profile Index results in higher discard rates because this creates a nonlinearity in perceived risk. There is also evidence that the perceived loss due to regulatory sanction results in increased organ discard rates. This may be due to the overuse of terminology that stresses regulatory sanctions and thus perpetuates fear of loss through a form of nudging. Our goal is to point out how these concepts of behavioral economics may negatively influence the decision process to accept these suboptimal organs. We hope to make the community more aware of these powerful psychological influences and thus potentially increase the utilization of these suboptimal organs. Further, we would urge regulatory bodies to avoid utilizing strategies that frame outcomes in terms of loss due to flagging and build models that are less prone to uncertain expected versus observed outcomes.

  15. Altered risk-aversion and risk-taking behaviour in patients with Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Juwon; Kim, Eun-Jin; Lim, Sewon; Shin, Dong-Won; Kang, Yeo-Jin; Bae, Seung-Min; Yoon, Hyung-Kun; Oh, Kang-Seob

    2012-09-01

    Normal individuals are risk averse for decisions framed as gains but risk taking for decisions framed as losses. This framing effect is supposed to be attenuated in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. We investigated the effects of highlighting rewards versus highlighting punishments on the risky decision-making of AD patients. Fourteen mild to moderate AD patients (Mini-Mental Status Examination score, 11-23; Clinical Dementia Rating, 1-2) and 16 healthy volunteers were recruited for the study. Subjects completed a computerized task on risky decision-making in which mathematically equivalent dilemmas were presented in terms of opportunities to gain monetary rewards ('positive frame') or avoid suffering losses ('negative frame'). As expected, AD patients chose more risky options under the positive frame than the negative frame, contrary to the control group (Z =-2.671, P= 0.007). The normal difference in the distribution of risky choices between positively and negatively framed dilemmas was significantly reduced in the AD group after we adjusted for years of education, mean age and depression (F= 5.321, P= 0.030). Deliberation time did not differ significantly between the two groups. These results suggest that AD patients making high-risk choices is associated with attenuated sensitivity to the emotional frames that highlight rewards or punishments, possibly reflecting altered evaluations of prospective gains and losses. © 2012 The Authors. Psychogeriatrics © 2012 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

  16. Dynamic asset allocation and downside-risk aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Berkelaar (Arjan); R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractThis paper considers dynamic asset allocation in a mean versus downside-risk framework. We derive closed-form solutions for the optimal portfolio weights when returns are lognormally distributed. Moreover, we study the impact of skewed and fat-tailed return distributions. We find that

  17. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  18. Which currency to set price? A model of multiple countries and risk averse firm

    OpenAIRE

    Jian Wang

    2004-01-01

    A crucial question centering many recent debates in the international macroeconomics is under which currency the price is sticky. This paper provides a microfoundation to study the firm¡¦s choice of price setting currency in the sticky price model. I first prove that the risk preference is a secondary consideration in the choice of the price setting currency. This result questions the claim that the currency forward market can change the currency choice of risk averse firms. Then I extend the...

  19. Cooperative game analysis of a supply chain with one risk-neutral supplier and two risk-averse retailers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changwen Li

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper considers a two-echelon supply chain composed of one risk-neutral supplier and two risk-averse retailers. The retailers obtain production from the supplier and sell them to the market. Based on the cooperative game theory, the paper studies the appropriate profit allocation of the supply chain when all the players cooperate with each other, where the two retailers face a price-sensitive stochastic demand. The two retailers can either determine their retail prices independently, or decide whether or not to cooperate with each other. Design/methodology/approach: To allocate the system-wide profit among upstream risk-neutral suppliers and two risk-averse downstream retailers, this paper constructed a cooperative game model, considered as the supermodularity of the characteristic function and the Shapley value of the game. Findings and Originality/value: By analyzing the construction’s cooperative game model, the results show that the profit of the whole supply chain is the highest in the grand coalition structure. This paper also shows that the core of our cooperative game is nonempty, and has the supermodularity property. Based on this, we have computed the Shapley value-based profit allocation for the whole supply chain in a fair manner. Originality/value: Although there are a lot of literature examined risk aversion in a supply chain, but they did not consider using cooperative game to study this problem. This the first study is in the context of a supply chain with risk aversion problem.

  20. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion.

  1. Integration of risk aversion in the evaluation of the external cost of a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eeckhoudt, L.; Schieber, C.; Schneider, Th.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the external costs of fuel cycles used in the production of electricity are those imposed on society and environment that are not accounted for by the producers and consumers of energy. Within the evaluation of the external cost of the nuclear fuel cycle, the evaluation of a nuclear accident has to be addressed. For this purpose, the basic approach consists in calculating the expected value of various occident scenarios. the main criticism of this approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the average monetary value which corresponds in principle to the compensation of the consequences for each individual of the population affected by the accident. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for the integration of risk aversion, relying on the expected utility approach, as well as a numerical application based on the French data for the external cost of a nuclear accident. Although a huge range of values has been published for the relative risk aversion coefficient, it seems reasonable to adopt a value of 2 for the specific case of nuclear accident. This leads to an estimated multiplying coefficient approximately equal to 20 to be applied to the expected external cost of a nuclear accident corresponding to a release of about 1% of the core. In this case, the external cost of the nuclear accident is estimated to 0.046 mECU/kWh (i.e. about 50% of the total external costs of the nuclear fuel cycle estimated at 0.1 mECU/kWh with a 3% discount rate), instead of 0.0023 mECU/kWh without taking into account risk aversion. (authors)

  2. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion

  3. Loss Aversion in the Laboratory

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, William G.; Oxoby, Robert J.

    2014-01-01

    We report the results of a laboratory experiment testing for the existence of loss aversion in a standard risk aversion protocol (Holt and Laury, 2002). In our experiment, participants earn and retain money for a week before using it in an incentivized risk preference elicitation task. We find loss aversion, distinct from risk aversion, has a significant effect on behavior resulting in participants requiring higher compensation to bear risk.

  4. Multi-market energy procurement for a large consumer using a risk-aversion procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zare, Kazem; Conejo, Antonio J.; Carrion, Miguel; Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides a technique to derive the bidding strategy in the day-ahead market of a large consumer that procures its electricity demand in both the day-ahead market and a subsequent adjustment market. Price uncertainty is modeled using concepts derived from information gap decision theory, which allows deriving robust decisions with respect to price volatility. Risk aversion is built implicitly within the proposed model. Correlations among prices in the day-ahead and the adjustment markets are properly modeled. The proposed technique is illustrated through a realistic case study. (author)

  5. Multi-market energy procurement for a large consumer using a risk-aversion procedure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zare, Kazem [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, P.O. Box 14115-111 (Iran); Conejo, Antonio J. [Castilla-La Mancha University, Ciudad Real (Spain); Carrion, Miguel [Castilla-La Mancha University, Toledo (Spain); Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran)

    2010-01-15

    This paper provides a technique to derive the bidding strategy in the day-ahead market of a large consumer that procures its electricity demand in both the day-ahead market and a subsequent adjustment market. Price uncertainty is modeled using concepts derived from information gap decision theory, which allows deriving robust decisions with respect to price volatility. Risk aversion is built implicitly within the proposed model. Correlations among prices in the day-ahead and the adjustment markets are properly modeled. The proposed technique is illustrated through a realistic case study. (author)

  6. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AND RISK AVERSION RATE FOR SEVERAL STOCK INDICES IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    Robiyanto Robiyanto

    2017-01-01

    There are numerous stock indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Several of them are LQ-45, MBX, DBX, JII, SRI-KEHATI, PEFINDO-25, BISNIS-27, IDX-30 and KOMPAS-100. Unfortunately there are limi­ted researches which have been done to measure those indices performance specifically. The same condition also occurs on risk aversion level usage in Indonesia Stock Exchange, only few numbers of researches use this me­a­surement in the portfolio valuation. Based on that, this research measured the perfor...

  7. Serotonin 2A receptors contribute to the regulation of risk-averse decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Macoveanu, Julian; Rowe, James B; Hornboll, Bettina

    2013-01-01

    Pharmacological studies point to a role of the neurotransmitter serotonin (5-HT) in regulating the preference for risky decisions, yet the functional contribution of specific 5-HT receptors remains to be clarified. We used pharmacological fMRI to investigate the role of the 5-HT2A receptors...... in processing negative outcomes and regulating risk-averse behavior. During fMRI, twenty healthy volunteers performed a gambling task under two conditions: with or without blocking the 5-HT2A receptors. The volunteers repeatedly chose between small, likely rewards and large, unlikely rewards. Choices were...

  8. Coordinating a Supply Chain with Risk-Averse Agents under Demand and Consumer Returns Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the optimal order decision in a supply chain when it faces uncertain demand and uncertain consumer returns. We build consumer returns model with decision-makers’ risk preference under mean-variance objective framework and discuss supply chain coordination problem under wholesale-price-only policy and the manufacturer’s buyback policy, respectively. We find that, with wholesale price policy, the supply chain cannot be coordinated whether the supply chain agents are risk-neutral or risk-averse. However, with buyback policy, the supply chain can be coordinated and the profit of the supply chain can be arbitrarily allocated between the manufacturer and the retailer. Through numerical examples, we illustrate the impact of stochastic consumer returns and the supply chain agents’ risk attitude on the optimal order decision.

  9. Modelling risk aversion to support decision-making for controlling zoonotic livestock diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Bergevoet, R H M; Ge, L

    2013-12-01

    Zoonotic infectious livestock diseases are becoming a significant burden for both animal and human health and are rapidly gaining the attention of decision-makers who manage public health programmes. If control decisions have only monetary components, governments are generally regarded as being risk-neutral and the intervention strategy with the highest expected benefit (lowest expected net costs) should be preferred. However, preferences will differ and alternative intervention plans will prevail if (human) life and death outcomes are involved. A rational decision framework must therefore consider risk aversion in the decision-maker and controversial values related to public health. In the present study, risk aversion and its impact on both the utility for the monetary component and the utility for the non-monetary component is shown to be an important element when dealing with emerging zoonotic infectious livestock diseases and should not be ignored in the understanding and support of decision-making. The decision framework was applied to several control strategies for the reduction of human cases of brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) originating from sheep in Turkey.

  10. The (Null) Effect of Affective Touch on Betrayal Aversion, Altruism, and Risk Taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koppel, Lina; Andersson, David; Morrison, India; Västfjäll, Daniel; Tinghög, Gustav

    2017-01-01

    Pleasant touch is thought to increase the release of oxytocin. Oxytocin, in turn, has been extensively studied with regards to its effects on trust and prosocial behavior, but results remain inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of touch on economic decision making. Participants ( n = 120) were stroked on their left arm using a soft brush (touch condition) or not at all (control condition; varied within subjects), while they performed a series of decision tasks assessing betrayal aversion (the Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task), altruism (donating money to a charitable organization), and risk taking (the Balloon Analog Risk Task). We found no significant effect of touch on any of the outcome measures, neither within nor between subjects. Furthermore, effects were not moderated by gender or attachment. However, attachment avoidance had a significant effect on altruism in that those who were high in avoidance donated less money. Our findings contribute to the understanding of affective touch-and, by extension, oxytocin-in social behavior, and decision making by showing that touch does not directly influence performance in tasks involving risk and prosocial decisions. Specifically, our work casts further doubt on the validity of oxytocin research in humans.

  11. Impact of perennial energy crops income variability on the crop selection of risk averse farmers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Peter; Moran, Dominic

    2013-01-01

    The UK Government policy is for the area of perennial energy crops in the UK to expand significantly. Farmers need to choose these crops in preference to conventional rotations for this to be achievable. This paper looks at the potential level and variability of perennial energy crop incomes and the relation to incomes from conventional arable crops. Assuming energy crop prices are correlated to oil prices the results suggests that incomes from them are not well correlated to conventional arable crop incomes. A farm scale mathematical programming model is then used to attempt to understand the affect on risk averse farmers crop selection. The inclusion of risk reduces the energy crop price required for the selection of these crops. However yields towards the highest of those predicted in the UK are still required to make them an optimal choice, suggesting only a small area of energy crops within the UK would be expected to be chosen to be grown. This must be regarded as a tentative conclusion, primarily due to high sensitivity found to crop yields, resulting in the proposal for further work to apply the model using spatially disaggregated data. - Highlights: ► Energy crop and conventional crop incomes suggested as uncorrelated. ► Diversification effect of energy crops investigated for a risk averse farmer. ► Energy crops indicated as optimal selection only on highest yielding UK sites. ► Large establishment grant rates to substantially alter crop selections.

  12. Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalão, J.P.S.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A MIQP approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem. ► Head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints are considered. ► As new contribution to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios. ► Also, risk aversion is incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through CVaR. ► A case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems is provided. - Abstract: In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

  13. The (Null Effect of Affective Touch on Betrayal Aversion, Altruism, and Risk Taking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Koppel

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Pleasant touch is thought to increase the release of oxytocin. Oxytocin, in turn, has been extensively studied with regards to its effects on trust and prosocial behavior, but results remain inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of touch on economic decision making. Participants (n = 120 were stroked on their left arm using a soft brush (touch condition or not at all (control condition; varied within subjects, while they performed a series of decision tasks assessing betrayal aversion (the Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task, altruism (donating money to a charitable organization, and risk taking (the Balloon Analog Risk Task. We found no significant effect of touch on any of the outcome measures, neither within nor between subjects. Furthermore, effects were not moderated by gender or attachment. However, attachment avoidance had a significant effect on altruism in that those who were high in avoidance donated less money. Our findings contribute to the understanding of affective touch—and, by extension, oxytocin—in social behavior, and decision making by showing that touch does not directly influence performance in tasks involving risk and prosocial decisions. Specifically, our work casts further doubt on the validity of oxytocin research in humans.

  14. Impact of Risk Aversion on the Operation of Hydroelectric Reservoirs in the Presence of Renewable Energy Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nenad Jovanović

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The increasing share of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar generation, has a direct impact on the planning and operation of power systems. In addition, the consideration of risk criteria within the decision support tools used by market participants (generation companies, energy services companies, and arbitrageurs is becoming a common activity given the increasing level of uncertainties faced by them. As a consequence, the behavior of market participants is affected by their level of risk aversion, and the application of equilibrium-based models is a common technique used in order to simulate their behavior. This paper presents a multi-stage market equilibrium model of risk-averse agents in order to analyze up to what extent the operation of hydro reservoirs can be affected by the risk-averse profile of market participants in a context of renewable energy source penetration and fuel price volatility.

  15. An evolutionary game model for behavioral gambit of loyalists: Global awareness and risk-aversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfinito, E.; Barra, A.; Beccaria, M.; Fachechi, A.; Macorini, G.

    2018-02-01

    We study the phase diagram of a minority game where three classes of agents are present. Two types of agents play a risk-loving game that we model by the standard Snowdrift Game. The behaviour of the third type of agents is coded by indifference with respect to the game at all: their dynamics is designed to account for risk-aversion as an innovative behavioral gambit. From this point of view, the choice of this solitary strategy is enhanced when innovation starts, while is depressed when it becomes the majority option. This implies that the payoff matrix of the game becomes dependent on the global awareness of the agents measured by the relevance of the population of the indifferent players. The resulting dynamics is nontrivial with different kinds of phase transition depending on a few model parameters. The phase diagram is studied on regular as well as complex networks.

  16. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Personal finance and life insurance under separation of risk aversion and elasticity of substitution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Steffensen, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    aversion from elasticity of inter-temporal substitution, we introduce certainty equivalents. We propose a time-inconsistent global optimization problem, and we present a verification theorem for an equilibrium control. In the special case without mortality risk, we discover that our optimization approach...... is equivalent to recursive utility optimization with Epstein–Zin preferences in the sense that the two approaches lead to the same result. We find this interesting since our optimization problem has an intuitive interpretation as a global maximization of certainty equivalents and since recursive utility......, in contrast to our approach, gives rise to severe differentiability problems. Also, our optimization approach can there be seen as a generalization of recursive utility optimization with Epstein–Zin preferences to include mortality risk and life insurance....

  18. Risk and Interaction Aversion: Screening Mechanisms in the Prisoner's Dilemma Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canova, Gabriel A.; Arenzon, Jeferson J.

    2017-09-01

    When the interactions between cooperators (C) and defectors (D) can be partially avoided within a population, there may be an overall enhancement of cooperation. One example of such screening mechanism occurs in the presence of risk-averse agents (loners, L) that are neutral towards others, i.e., both L and its opponent, whatever its strategy, receive the same payoff. Their presence in the Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) game sustains the coexistence of cooperators and defectors far beyond the level attained in their absence. Another screening mechanism is a heterogeneous landscape obtained, for example, by site diluting the lattice. In this case, cooperation is enhanced with some fraction of such inactive, interaction-averse sites. By considering the interplay of both mechanisms, we show that there is an explosive increase in the range of densities, just above the percolation threshold, where neutrality is prevented and loners become extinct, the behavior reverting to the pure PD game. Interestingly, this occurs despite defectors being usually abundant in that region. This has to be compared with the corresponding loner-free region in the undiluted case that, besides being very small, is dominated by cooperators.

  19. Flexible Multi-Objective Transmission Expansion Planning with Adjustable Risk Aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Qiu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a multi-objective transmission expansion planning (TEP framework. Rather than using the conventional deterministic reliability criterion, a risk component based on the probabilistic reliability criterion is incorporated into the TEP objectives. This risk component can capture the stochastic nature of power systems, such as load and wind power output variations, component availability, and incentive-based demand response (IBDR costs. Specifically, the formulation of risk value after risk aversion is explicitly given, and it aims to provide network planners with the flexibility to conduct risk analysis. Thus, a final expansion plan can be selected according to individual risk preferences. Moreover, the economic value of IBDR is modeled and integrated into the cost objective. In addition, a relatively new multi-objective evolutionary algorithm called the MOEA/D is introduced and employed to find Pareto optimal solutions, and tradeoffs between overall cost and risk are provided. The proposed approach is numerically verified on the Garver’s six-bus, IEEE 24-bus RTS and Polish 2383-bus systems. Case study results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively reduce cost and hedge risk in relation to increasing wind power integration.

  20. Environmental and Economic Optimization Model for Electric System Planning in Ningxia, China: Inexact Stochastic Risk-Aversion Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to provide a novel risk aversion model for long-term electric power system planning from the manager’s perspective with the consideration of various uncertainties. In the proposed method, interval parameter programming and two-stage stochastic programming are integrated to deal with the technical, economics, and policy uncertainties. Moreover, downside risk theory is introduced to balance the trade-off between the profit and risk according to the decision-maker’s risk aversion attitude. To verify the effectiveness and practical application of this approach, an inexact stochastic risk aversion model is developed for regional electric system planning and management in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. The series of solutions provide the decision-maker with the optimal investment strategy and operation management under different future emission reduction scenarios and risk-aversion levels. The results indicated that pollution control devices are still the main measures to achieve the current mitigation goal and the adjustment of generation structure would play an important role in the future cleaner electricity system with the stricter environmental policy. In addition, the model can be used for generating decision alternatives and helping decision-makers identify desired energy structure adjustment and pollutants/carbon mitigation abatement policies under various economic and system-reliability constraints.

  1. Playing it safe but losing anyway--serotonergic signaling of negative outcomes in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex in the context of risk-aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macoveanu, Julian; Rowe, James B; Hornboll, Bettina; Elliott, Rebecca; Paulson, Olaf B; Knudsen, Gitte M; Siebner, Hartwig R

    2013-08-01

    Risk avoidance is an important determinant of human behavior. The neurotransmitter serotonin has been implicated in processing negative outcomes caused by risky decisions. However, it is unclear whether serotonin provides a neurobiological link between making a risk aversive decision and the response to a negative outcome. Using pharmacological fMRI, we manipulated the availability of serotonin in healthy volunteers while performing a gambling task. The same group of participants was studied in three fMRI sessions: (i) during intravenous administration of the SSRI citalopram to increase the serotonergic tone, (ii) after acute tryptophan depletion (ATD) to reduce central serotonin levels, or (iii) without interventions. ATD and citalopram had opposite effects on outcome related activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) and amygdala. Relative to the control condition, ATD increased and citalopram decreased the neural response to negative outcomes in dmPFC. Conversely, ATD decreased and citalopram increased the neural response to negative outcomes in left amygdala. Critically, these pharmacological effects were restricted to negative outcomes that were caused by low-risk decisions and led to a high missed reward. ATD and citalopram did not alter the neural response to positive outcomes in dmPFC, but relative to ATD, citalopram produced a bilateral increase in the amygdala response to large wins caused by high-risk choices. The results show a selective involvement of the serotonergic system in neocortical processing of negative outcomes resulting from risk-averse decisions, thereby linking risk aversion and processing of negative outcomes in goal-directed behaviors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

  2. Integrated framework for the external cost assessment of nuclear power plant accident considering risk aversion: The Korean case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    Recently, the estimation of accident costs within the social costs of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has garnered substantial interest. In particular, the risk aversion behavior of the public toward an NPP accident is considered an important factor when integrating risk aversion into NPP accident cost. In this study, an integrated framework for the external cost assessment of NPP accident that measures the value of statistical life (VSL) and the relative risk aversion (RRA) coefficient for NPP accident based on an individual-level survey is proposed. To derive the willingness to pay and the RRA coefficient for NPP accident risks, a survey was conducted on a sample of 1550 individuals in Korea. The estimation obtained a mean VSL of USD 2.78 million and an RRA coefficient of 1.315. Based on the estimation results in which various cost factors were considered, a multiplication factor of 5.16 and an external cost of NPP accidents of 4.39E−03 USD-cents/kW h were estimated. This study is expected to provide insight to energy policy decision-makers on analyzing the economic validity of NPP compared to other energy sources by reflecting the estimated external cost of NPP accident into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. - Highlights: •External cost assessment framework for NPP is proposed considering risk aversion. •VSL was derived from WTP for mortality risk reduction from hypothetical NPP accident. •RRA was derived to integrate public risk aversion into external cost of NPP accident. •Individual-level survey was conducted to derive WTP and RRA for NPP accident risk. •The external cost was estimated considering the direct cost factors of NPP accident.

  3. Reporting individual surgeon outcomes does not lead to risk aversion in abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saratzis, A; Thatcher, A; Bath, M F; Sidloff, D A; Bown, M J; Shakespeare, J; Sayers, R D; Imray, C

    2017-02-01

    INTRODUCTION Reporting surgeons' outcomes has recently been introduced in the UK. This has the potential to result in surgeons becoming risk averse. The aim of this study was to investigate whether reporting outcomes for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery impacts on the number and risk profile (level of fitness) of patients offered elective treatment. METHODS Publically available National Vascular Registry data were used to compare the number of AAAs treated in those centres across the UK that reported outcomes for the periods 2008-2012, 2009-2013 and 2010-2014. Furthermore, the number and characteristics of patients referred for consideration of elective AAA repair at a single tertiary unit were analysed yearly between 2010 and 2014. Clinic, casualty and theatre event codes were searched to obtain all AAAs treated. The results of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) were assessed. RESULTS For the 85 centres that reported outcomes in all three five-year periods, the median number of AAAs treated per unit increased between the periods 2008-2012 and 2010-2014 from 192 to 214 per year (p=0.006). In the single centre cohort study, the proportion of patients offered elective AAA repair increased from 74% in 2009-2010 to 81% in 2013-2014, with a maximum of 84% in 2012-2013. The age, aneurysm size and CPET results (anaerobic threshold levels) for those eventually offered elective treatment did not differ significantly between 2010 and 2014. CONCLUSIONS The results do not support the assumption that reporting individual surgeon outcomes is associated with a risk averse strategy regarding patient selection in aneurysm surgery at present.

  4. Innovation and risk-averse firms: Options on carbon allowances as a hedging tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szolgayová, Jana; Golub, Alexander; Fuss, Sabine

    2014-01-01

    In a regulated world where government seeks to decarbonize the energy sector, firms face both indirect and direct costs of emitting CO 2 . This study seeks to take the perspective of the firm, which needs to maximize profits implying minimization of (carbon) cost as well. In this study, the firm can compose the cost-optimal portfolio of (a) investing into carbon-saving technology, which is currently expensive, (b) investing into carbon-saving technology R and D and adopt this technology at a later point, (c) buying allowances per ton of emitted CO 2 in a carbon market (alternatively this could be formulated as a tax), and (d) buying offsets traded in the same market, which are based on reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+). Uncertainties in the cost of carbon coming from a lack of commitment in policy-making leading to fluctuations in markets and uncertainty in the payoff of R and D activities could provide disincentives to incur large up-front sunk cost and raise the economic value of being flexible. We apply a real options approach with stochastic carbon-saving technology costs and stochastic CO 2 costs. Assuming that firms are risk-averse, they will not only value flexibility, but also risk reductions from diversification over the different (carbon mitigation) options. - Highlights: • We study the compliance problem of a private firm under both regulatory and technological uncertainty in an optimal control setting. • When firms are risk-averse, forest-backed offset options will be part of the compliance portfolio. • R and D creates valuable options on new technology

  5. Regret Aversion Bias dan Risk Tolerance Investor Muda Jakarta dan Surabaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yohnson Yohnson

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decision behavior is an interesting topic in finance research. Bailey and Kinerson’s (2005 research found that individual risk tolerance and experienced regret significantly influenced investment decisions. Anticipation of potential future regret did not predict subsequent investment decision behavior. Specifically, this research also wants to know the effects of a person’s experienced regret and anticipated regret or the effects of individual risk tolerance on investment decision behavior in Jakarta and Surabaya. Respondent of this research is 323 students from UK Petra who represent young investors from Surabaya and students from UPH who represent young investors from Jakarta. The method of research is experimental study and the design of research is 2x2x2 (between subject with experienced regret (time deposit and stock as first variable, anticipated regret (time deposit and stock as second variable and risk tolerance (high and low as third variable This study finds that an individual risk tolerance significantly influences decisions. Regret aversion bias does not influence young investors in Indonesia. (We assume that it is because the character of Indonesian investors is different from foreign investors. The couse of this is supposedly the unique characteristics of Indonesian investors and the different view points between Indonesian investors and investors from other countries. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia: Perilaku keputusan investasi sangat menarik untuk diteliti. Dalam penelitian Bailey dan Kinerson (2005 ditemukan risk tolerance dan experienced regret mempengaruhi keputusan investasi. Anticipated regret tidak dapat dipakai sebagai predictor perilaku keputusan investasi. Penelitian ini juga ingin mengetahui experienced regret, anticipated regret atau risk tolerance yang lebih mempengaruhi perilaku keputusan investasi di Jakarta dan Surabaya. Responden yang diteliti sebesar 323 mahasiswa berasal dari UK Petra yang mewakili

  6. In uncertainty we trust: a median voter model with risk aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel A. Yakovlev

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The principal-agent problem and uncertainty are some of the key factors affecting financial and political markets. Fear of the unknown plays an important role in human decision making, including voting. This article describes a theoretical model where voter risk aversion towards uncertainty gives political incumbents a significant advantage over their challengers, exacerbating the principal-agent problem between voters and legislators. The model presented predicts that a rise in voter uncertainty concerning the challenger allows the incumbent to deviate from the median voter’s policy preference without losing the election. This model reconciles the paradoxical coexistence of ideological shirking and high incumbent reelection rates without abandoning the elegant median voter framework.

  7. Decision on risk-averse dual-channel supply chain under demand disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Bo; Jin, Zijie; Liu, Yanping; Yang, Jianbo

    2018-02-01

    We studied dual-channel supply chains using centralized and decentralized decision-making models. We also conducted a comparative analysis of the decisions before and after demand disruption. The study shows that the amount of change in decision-making is a linear function of the amount of demand disruption, and it is independent of the risk-averse coefficient. The optimal sales volume decision of the disturbing supply chain is related to market share and demand disruption in the decentralized decision-making model. The optimal decision is only influenced by demand disruption in the centralized decision-making model. The stability of the sales volume of the two models is related to market share and demand disruption. The optimal system production of the two models shows robustness, but their stable internals are different.

  8. Assessing the Impact of the Funding Environment on Researchers' Risk Aversion: The Use of Citation Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoller, Frank A.; Zimmerling, Eric; Boutellier, Roman

    2014-01-01

    The funding environment has a profound impact on researchers' behavior. In particular, it influences their freedom and readiness to conduct research ventures with highly uncertain outcomes. In this conceptual paper, we propose a concise new methodology to evaluate researchers' risk aversion based on citation statistics. The derived…

  9. Effects of incorporating environmental cost and risk aversion on economic values of pig breeding goal traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, B M; de Mey, Y; Bastiaansen, J W M; Oude Lansink, A G J M

    2018-06-01

    Economic values (EVs) of traits, accounting for environmental impacts and risk preferences of farmers, are required to design breeding goals that contribute to both economic and environmental sustainability. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of incorporating environmental costs and the risk preferences of farmers on the EVs of pig breeding goal traits. A breeding goal consisting of both sow efficiency and production traits was defined for a typical Brazilian farrow-to-finish pig farm with 1,500 productive sows. A mean-variance utility function was employed for deriving the EVs at finishing pig level assuming fixed slaughter weight. The inclusion of risk and risk aversion reduces the economic weights of sow efficiency traits (17%) while increasing the importance of production traits (7%). For a risk-neutral producer, inclusion of environmental cost reduces the economic importance of sow efficiency traits (3%) while increasing the importance of production traits (1%). Genetic changes of breeding goal traits by their genetic standard deviations reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and excretions of nitrogen and phosphorus per finished pig by up to 6% while increasing farm profit. The estimated EVs could be used to improve selection criteria and thereby contribute to the sustainability of pig production systems. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Breeding and Genetics published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  10. Transcranial direct current stimulation over prefrontal cortex diminishes degree of risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Hang; Chen, Shu; Huang, Daqiang; Wang, Siqi; Jia, Yongmin; Luo, Jun

    2015-06-26

    Previous studies have established that transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a powerful technique for manipulating the activity of the human cerebral cortex. Many studies have found that weighing the risks and benefits in decision-making involves a complex neural network that includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). We studied whether participants change the balance of risky and safe responses after receiving tDCS applied over the right and left prefrontal cortex. A total of 60 healthy volunteers performed a risk task while they received either anodal tDCS over the right prefrontal cortex, with cathodal over the left; anodal tDCS over the left prefrontal cortex, with cathodal over the right; or sham stimulation. The participants tended to choose less risky options after receiving sham stimulation, demonstrating that the task might be highly influenced by the "wealth effect". There was no statistically significant change after either right anodal/left cathodal or left anodal/right cathodal tDCS, indicating that both types of tDCS impact the participants' degrees of risk aversion, and therefore, counteract the wealth effect. We also found gender differences in the participants' choices. These findings extend the notion that DLPFC activity is critical for risk decision-making. Application of tDCS to the right/left DLPFC may impact a person's attitude to taking risks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk aversion, time preference and health production: theory and empirical evidence from Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieger, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    This paper quantifies the relationship between risk aversion and discount rates on the one hand and height and weight on the other. It studies this link in the context of poor households in Cambodia. Evidence is based on an original dataset that contains both experimental measures of risk taking and impatience along with anthropometric measurements of children and adults. The aim of the paper is to (i) explore the importance of risk and time preferences in explaining undernutrition and (ii) compare the evidence stemming from poor households to strikingly similar findings from industrialized countries. It uses an inter-generational approach to explain observed correlations in adults and children that is inspired by the height premium on labor markets. Parents can invest in the health capital of their child to increase future earnings and their consumption when old: better nutrition during infancy translates into better human capital and better wages, and ultimately better financial means to take care of elderly parents. However this investment is subject to considerable uncertainty, since parents neither perfectly foresee economic conditions when the child starts earning nor fully observe the ability to transform nutritional investments into long-term health capital. As a result, risk taking households have taller and heavier children. Conversely, impatience does not affect child health. In the case of adults, only weight and the body mass index (BMI), but not height, are positively and moderately correlated with risk taking and impatience. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

    2017-02-01

    Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Risk-averse decision-making for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability, high-consequence events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Eun Jeong; Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative analysis and assessment of risk to civil infrastructure has two components: probability of a potentially damaging event and consequence of damage, measured in terms of financial or human losses. Decision models that have been utilized during the past three decades take into account the probabilistic component rationally, but address decision-maker attitudes toward consequences and risk only to a limited degree. The application of models reflecting these attitudes to decisions involving low-probability, high-consequence events that may impact civil infrastructure requires a fundamental understanding of risk acceptance attitudes and how they affect individual and group choices. In particular, the phenomenon of risk aversion may be a significant factor in decisions for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability events with severe consequences, such as earthquakes, hurricanes or floods. This paper utilizes cumulative prospect theory to investigate the role and characteristics of risk-aversion in assurance of structural safety.

  14. Risk aversion and institutional information disclosure on the European carbon market. A case-study of the 2006 compliance event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien; Ielpo, Florian; Mercier, Ludovic

    2009-01-01

    This article evaluates the impact of the 2006 compliance event on changes in investors' risk aversion on the European carbon market using the newly available option prices dataset. Thus, we aim at capturing the specific event that occurred on April 2007 as the European Commission disclosed the 2006 verified emissions data. Following the methodology existing for stock indices, we recover empirically risk aversion adjustments on the period 2006-2007 by estimating first the risk-neutral distribution from option prices and second the actual distribution from futures on the European Climate Exchange. Our results show evidence of a dramatic change in the market perception of risk around the 2006 yearly compliance event that has not been assessed yet. (author)

  15. Decision-making, financial risk aversion, and behavioral biases: The role of testosterone and stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofsinger, John R; Patterson, Fernando M; Shank, Corey A

    2018-05-01

    We examine the relation between testosterone, cortisol, and financial decisions in a sample of naïve investors. We find that testosterone level is positively related to excess risk-taking, whereas cortisol level is negatively related to excess risk-taking (correlation coefficient [r]: 0.75 and -0.21, respectively). Additionally, we find support for the dual-hormone hypothesis in a financial context. Specifically, the testosterone-to-cortisol ratio is significantly related to loss aversion. Individuals with a higher ratio are 3.4 times more likely to sell losing stocks (standard error [SE]: 1.63). Furthermore, we find a positive feedback loop between financial success, testosterone, and cortisol. Specifically, financial success is significantly related to higher post-trial testosterone and cortisol by a factor of 0.53 (SE: 0.14). Finally, we find that in a competitive environment, testosterone level increases significantly, leading to greater risk-taking than in noncompetitive environment. Overall, this study underscores the importance of the endocrine system on financial decision-making. The results of this study are relevant to a broad audience, including investors looking to optimize financial performance, industry human resources, market regulators, and researchers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Clinical responsibility, accountability, and risk aversion in mental health nursing: a descriptive, qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Jenni; Crowe, Marie

    2014-08-01

    A number of recent, highly-publicized, perceived health-care service failures have raised concerns about health professionals' accountabilities. Relevant to these concerns, the present study sought to examine how mental health nurses understood clinical responsibility and its impact on their practice. A descriptive, qualitative design was used, and a convenience sample of 10 mental health nurses was recruited from specialist inpatient and outpatient mental health settings in Canterbury, New Zealand. Data were collected using semistructured interviews, and the transcriptions were analysed using an inductive, descriptive approach. Three major themes were identified: being accountable, fostering patient responsibility, and shifting responsibility. Being accountable involved weighing up patients' therapeutic needs against the potential for blame in an organizational culture of risk management. Fostering patient responsibility described the process of deciding in what situations patients could take responsibility for their behaviour. Shifting responsibility described the culture of defensive practice fostered by the organizational culture of risk aversion. The present study highlighted the challenges mental health nurses experience in relation to clinical responsibility in practice, including the balancing required between the needs of patients, the needs of the organization, and the perceived need for self-protection. © 2014 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  17. The neural basis of loss aversion in decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tom, Sabrina M; Fox, Craig R; Trepel, Christopher; Poldrack, Russell A

    2007-01-26

    People typically exhibit greater sensitivity to losses than to equivalent gains when making decisions. We investigated neural correlates of loss aversion while individuals decided whether to accept or reject gambles that offered a 50/50 chance of gaining or losing money. A broad set of areas (including midbrain dopaminergic regions and their targets) showed increasing activity as potential gains increased. Potential losses were represented by decreasing activity in several of these same gain-sensitive areas. Finally, individual differences in behavioral loss aversion were predicted by a measure of neural loss aversion in several regions, including the ventral striatum and prefrontal cortex.

  18. Decisions during negatively-framed messages yield smaller risk-aversion-related brain activation in substance-dependent individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukunaga, Rena; Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R; Brown, Joshua W

    2013-12-01

    A sizable segment of addiction research investigates the effects of persuasive message appeals on risky and deleterious behaviors. However, to date, little research has examined how various forms of message framing and corresponding behavioral choices might by mediated by risk-related brain regions. Using event-related functional MRI, we investigated brain regions hypothesized to mediate the influence of message appeals on decision making in substance-dependent (SD) compared with nonsubstance-dependent (non-SD) individuals. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was modified to include positively-framed, negatively-framed, and control messages about long-term deck payoffs. In the positively-framed condition, the SD and non-SD groups showed improved decision-making performance that corresponded to higher risk-aversion-related brain activity in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and anterior insula (AI). In contrast, in the negatively-framed condition, the SD group showed poorer performance that corresponded to lower risk-aversion-related brain activity in the AI region. In addition, only the non-SD group showed a positive association between decision quality and greater risk-related activity in the ACC, regardless of message type. The findings suggest substance-dependent individuals may have reduced neurocognitive sensitivity in the ACC and AI regions involved in risk perception and aversion during decision-making, especially in response to framed messages that emphasize reduced prospects for long-term gains. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. Coordinating Contracts for Two-Stage Fashion Supply Chain with Risk-Averse Retailer and Price-Dependent Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minli Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available When the demand is sensitive to retail price, revenue sharing contract and two-part tariff contract have been shown to be able to coordinate supply chains with risk neutral agents. We extend the previous studies to consider a risk-averse retailer in a two-echelon fashion supply chain. Based on the classic mean-variance approach in finance, the issue of channel coordination in a fashion supply chain with risk-averse retailer and price-dependent demand is investigated. We propose both single contracts and joint contracts to achieve supply chain coordination. We find that the coordinating revenue sharing contract and two-part tariff contract in the supply chain with risk neutral agents are still useful to coordinate the supply chain taking into account the degree of risk aversion of fashion retailer, whereas a more complex sales rebate and penalty (SRP contract fails to do so. When using combined contracts to coordinate the supply chain, we demonstrate that only revenue sharing with two-part tariff contract can coordinate the fashion supply chain. The optimal conditions for contract parameters to achieve channel coordination are determined. Numerical analysis is presented to supplement the results and more insights are gained.

  20. Decisions during Negatively-Framed Messages Yield Smaller Risk-Aversion-Related Brain Activation in Substance-Dependent Individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukunaga, Rena; Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R.; Brown, Joshua W.

    2012-01-01

    A sizable segment of addiction research investigates the effects of persuasive message appeals on risky and deleterious behaviors. However, to date, little research has examined how various forms of message framing and corresponding behavioral choices might by mediated by risk-related brain regions. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated brain regions hypothesized to mediate the influence of message appeals on decision making in substance-dependent (SD) compared to non-substance-dependent (non-SD) individuals. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was modified to include positively-framed, negatively-framed, and control messages about long-term deck payoffs. In the positively-framed condition, the SD and non-SD groups showed improved decision-making performance that corresponded to higher risk-aversion-related brain activity in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and anterior insula (AI). In contrast, in the negatively-framed condition, the SD group showed poorer performance that corresponded to lower risk-aversion-related brain activity in the AI region. In addition, only the non-SD group showed a positive association between decision quality and greater risk-related activity in the ACC, regardless of message type. The findings suggest substance-dependent individuals may have reduced neurocognitive sensitivity in the ACC and AI regions involved in risk perception and aversion during decision-making, especially in response to framed messages that emphasize reduced prospects for long-term gains. PMID:23148798

  1. Decisions for Others Are Less Risk-Averse in the Gain Frame and Less Risk-Seeking in the Loss Frame Than Decisions for the Self

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiangyi; Liu, Yi; Chen, Xiyou; Shang, Xuesong; Liu, Yongfang

    2017-01-01

    Despite the fact that people make decisions for others as often as they make decisions for themselves, little is known about how decisions for others are different from those made for the self. In two experiments, we investigated the effect of social distance (i.e., making decisions for oneself, a friend, or a stranger) on risk preferences in both gain and loss situations. We found that people were more risk averse in gain situations when they made decisions for themselves than for a stranger (Studies 1 and 2), but were equally risk averse for themselves and their friends (Study 2). However, people were more risk seeking in loss situations when they made decisions for themselves than for their friends as well as for a stranger, and were more risk seeking for their friends than for a stranger (Study 2). Furthermore, the effect of social distance on risk preferences was stronger in loss than in gain situations. Mediation analysis indicated that outcome-induced loss aversion was responsible for effects of social distance on risk preferences. These findings demonstrate that social distance influences risk preferences via perceived loss aversion, which sheds new light on self-other differences in decision making. PMID:28966604

  2. Decisions for Others Are Less Risk-Averse in the Gain Frame and Less Risk-Seeking in the Loss Frame Than Decisions for the Self.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiangyi; Liu, Yi; Chen, Xiyou; Shang, Xuesong; Liu, Yongfang

    2017-01-01

    Despite the fact that people make decisions for others as often as they make decisions for themselves, little is known about how decisions for others are different from those made for the self. In two experiments, we investigated the effect of social distance (i.e., making decisions for oneself, a friend, or a stranger) on risk preferences in both gain and loss situations. We found that people were more risk averse in gain situations when they made decisions for themselves than for a stranger (Studies 1 and 2), but were equally risk averse for themselves and their friends (Study 2). However, people were more risk seeking in loss situations when they made decisions for themselves than for their friends as well as for a stranger, and were more risk seeking for their friends than for a stranger (Study 2). Furthermore, the effect of social distance on risk preferences was stronger in loss than in gain situations. Mediation analysis indicated that outcome-induced loss aversion was responsible for effects of social distance on risk preferences. These findings demonstrate that social distance influences risk preferences via perceived loss aversion, which sheds new light on self-other differences in decision making.

  3. Strategic and Tactical Design of Competing Decentralized Supply Chain Networks with Risk-Averse Participants for Markets with Uncertain Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashkan Hafezalkotob

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated equilibrium model for tactical decisions in network design is developed. We consider a decentralized supply chain network operating in markets under uncertain demands when there is a rival decentralized chain. The primary assumption is that two chains provide partial substitutable products to the markets, and markets' demands are affected by tactical decisions such as price, service level, and advertising expenditure. Each chain consists of one risk-averse manufacturer and a set of risk-averse retailers. The strategic decisions are frequently taking precedence over tactical ones. Therefore, we first find equilibrium of tactical decisions for each possible scenario of supply chain network. Afterwards, we find optimal distribution network of the new supply chain by the scenario evaluation method. Numerical example, including sensitivity analysis will illustrate how the conservative behaviors of chains' members affect expected demand, profit, and utility of each distribution scenario.

  4. Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

  5. Strategic and Tactical Design of Competing Decentralized Supply Chain Networks with Risk-Averse Participants for Markets with Uncertain Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Hafezalkotob, Ashkan; Makui, Ahmad; Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar

    2011-01-01

    An integrated equilibrium model for tactical decisions in network design is developed. We consider a decentralized supply chain network operating in markets under uncertain demands when there is a rival decentralized chain. The primary assumption is that two chains provide partial substitutable products to the markets, and markets' demands are affected by tactical decisions such as price, service level, and advertising expenditure. Each chain consists of one risk-averse manufacturer and a set...

  6. The Influence of Financial Literacy, Risk Aversion and Expectations on Retirement Planning and Portfolio Allocation in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Shahnaz Mahdzan

    2018-12-01

    Full Text Available The two objectives of this paper are to examine the effect of financial literacy, risk aversion and expectations on retirement planning; and, to investigate the effect of these antecedents on the retire- ment portfolio allocation. Data was collected via a self-administered questionnaire from a sample of 270 working individuals in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Logistic and ordered probit regressions were employed to analyse the first and second objective, respectively. The results from the logistic regression indicate that future expectations significantly influence the probability of planning for retirement. Meanwhile, individu- als with higher financial literacy and lower risk aversion are more likely to hold risky assets in their retirement portfolios. Subsequently, two-sample t-test and one-way ANOVA tests were conducted to further examine the differences in financial literacy, risk aversion and expectations, across demographic sub-groups. The study contributes to the literature by holistically incorporating the behavioural aspects that affect retirement planning and by exploring an uncharted issue of retirement planning—namely, the retirement portfolio allocation.

  7. Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: an introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gent, David H; De Wolf, Erick; Pethybridge, Sarah J

    2011-06-01

    Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect tactical management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease risk and thus assist in accurately targeting events critical for management. However, in many instances adoption of these systems for use in routine disease management has been perceived as slow. The under-utilization of some decision support systems is likely due to both technical and perception constraints that have not been addressed adequately during development and implementation phases. Growers' perceptions of risk and their aversion to these perceived risks can be reasons for the "slow" uptake of decision support systems and, more broadly, integrated pest management (IPM). Decision theory provides some tools that may assist in quantifying and incorporating subjective and/or measured probabilities of disease occurrence or crop loss into decision support systems. Incorporation of subjective probabilities into IPM recommendations may be one means to reduce grower uncertainty and improve trust of these systems because management recommendations could be explicitly informed by growers' perceptions of risk and economic utility. Ultimately though, we suggest that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.

  8. Possibility of dying as a unified explanation of why we discount the future, get weaker with age, and display risk-aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhry, Bhagwan

    2011-01-01

    I formulate a simple and parsimonious evolutionary model that shows that because most species face a possibility of dying because of external factors, called extrinsic mortality in the biology literature, it can simultaneously explain (a) why we discount the future, (b) get weaker with age, and (c) display risk-aversion. The paper suggests that testable restrictions—across species, across time, or across genders—among time preference, aging, and risk-aversion could be analyzed in a simple framework .

  9. Impact of risk aversion and disease outbreak characteristics on the incentives of producers as a group to participate in animal disease insurance-A simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemi, Jarkko K; Heikkilä, Jaakko

    2011-06-01

    The participation of agricultural producers in financing losses caused by livestock epidemics has been debated in many countries. One of the issues raised is how reluctant producers are to participate voluntarily in the financing of disease losses before an outbreak occurs. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether disease losses should be financed through pre- or post-outbreak premiums or their combination. A Monte Carlo simulation was employed to illustrate the costs of financing two diseases of different profiles. The profiles differed in the probability in which the damage occurs and in the average damage per event. Three hypothetical financing schemes were compared based on their ability to reduce utility losses in the case of risk-neutral and risk-averse producer groups. The schemes were examined in a dynamic setting where premiums depended on the compensation history of the sector. If producers choose the preferred financing scheme based on utility losses, results suggest that the timing of the premiums, the transaction costs of the scheme, the degree of risk aversion of the producer, and the level and the volatility of premiums affect the choice of the financing scheme. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. The Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task: An Individual Level Betrayal Aversion Measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aimone, Jason; Ball, Sheryl; King-Casas, Brooks

    2015-01-01

    Research on betrayal aversion shows that individuals' response to risk depends not only on probabilities and payoffs, but also on whether the risk includes a betrayal of trust. While previous studies focus on measuring aggregate levels of betrayal aversion, the connection between an individual's own betrayal aversion and other individually varying factors, including risk preferences, are currently unexplored. This paper develops a new task to elicit an individual's level of betrayal aversion that can then be compared to individual characteristics. We demonstrate the feasibility of our new task and show that our aggregate individual results are consistent with previous studies. We then use this classification to ask whether betrayal aversion is correlated with risk aversion. While we find risk aversion and betrayal aversion have no significant relationship, we do observe that risk aversion is correlated with non-social risk preferences, but not the social, betrayal related, risk component of the new task.

  11. Ambiguity aversion in schizophrenia: An fMRI study of decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujino, Junya; Hirose, Kimito; Tei, Shisei; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Matsukawa, Noriko; Miyata, Jun; Sugihara, Genichi; Yoshihara, Yujiro; Ideno, Takashi; Aso, Toshihiko; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

    2016-12-01

    When making decisions in everyday life, we often have to choose between uncertain outcomes. Economic studies have demonstrated that healthy people tend to prefer options with known probabilities (risk) than those with unknown probabilities (ambiguity), which is referred to as "ambiguity aversion." However, it remains unclear how patients with schizophrenia behave under ambiguity, despite growing evidence of their altered decision-making under uncertainty. In this study, combining economic tools and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we assessed the attitudes toward risk/ambiguity and investigated the neural correlates during decision-making under risk/ambiguity in schizophrenia. Although no significant difference in attitudes under risk was observed, patients with schizophrenia chose ambiguity significantly more often than the healthy controls. Attitudes under risk and ambiguity did not correlate across patients with schizophrenia. Furthermore, unlike in the healthy controls, activation of the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex was not increased during decision-making under ambiguity compared to under risk in schizophrenia. These results suggest that ambiguity aversion, a well-established subjective bias, is attenuated in patients with schizophrenia, highlighting the need to distinguish between risk and ambiguity when assessing decision-making under these situations. Our findings, comprising important clinical implications, contribute to improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying altered decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. A time consistent risk averse three-stage stochastic mixed integer optimization model for power generation capacity expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pisciella, P.; Vespucci, M.T.; Bertocchi, M.; Zigrino, S.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a multi-stage stochastic optimization model for the generation capacity expansion problem of a price-taker power producer. Uncertainties regarding the evolution of electricity prices and fuel costs play a major role in long term investment decisions, therefore the objective function represents a trade-off between expected profit and risk. The Conditional Value at Risk is the risk measure used and is defined by a nested formulation that guarantees time consistency in the multi-stage model. The proposed model allows one to determine a long term expansion plan which takes into account uncertainty, while the LCoE approach, currently used by decision makers, only allows one to determine which technology should be chosen for the next power plant to be built. A sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to the risk weighting factor and budget amount. - Highlights: • We propose a time consistent risk averse multi-stage model for capacity expansion. • We introduce a case study with uncertainty on electricity prices and fuel costs. • Increased budget moves the investment from gas towards renewables and then coal. • Increased risk aversion moves the investment from coal towards renewables. • Time inconsistency leads to a profit gap between planned and implemented policies.

  13. Risk aversion and willingness to pay for water quality: The case of non-farm rural residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larue, Bruno; West, Gale E; Singbo, Alphonse; Tamini, Lota Dabio

    2017-07-15

    Stated choice experiments are used to investigate the economic valuation of rural residents living in the province of Quebec for water quality improvements. In Quebec, rural residents played an important role in the setting of stricter environmental regulations. Unlike most stated choice experiments about the valuation of improvements in water quality, this study explicitly accounts for risk in the design and analysis of choice experiments. Risk in phosphorus and coliform reductions is introduced through a three-point uniform distribution in the choice sets. The results show greater support for constant absolute risk aversion preferences than for constant relative risk aversion. Rural residents value coliform and phosphorus reductions and the more educated ones are particularly willing to see the government tax farmers and taxpayers to secure such reductions. As the science improves and risk in water quality outcomes decrease and as the political weight of non-farm rural residents increase, it should be easier for governments to replace voluntary cost-share programs by polluter-payer programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. An inexact mixed risk-aversion two-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, W; Wang, B; Xie, Y L; Huang, G H; Liu, L

    2015-02-01

    Uncertainties exist in the water resources system, while traditional two-stage stochastic programming is risk-neutral and compares the random variables (e.g., total benefit) to identify the best decisions. To deal with the risk issues, a risk-aversion inexact two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. The model was a hybrid methodology of interval-parameter programming, conditional value-at-risk measure, and a general two-stage stochastic programming framework. The method extends on the traditional two-stage stochastic programming method by enabling uncertainties presented as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. It could not only provide information on the benefits of the allocation plan to the decision makers but also measure the extreme expected loss on the second-stage penalty cost. The developed model was applied to a hypothetical case of water resources management. Results showed that that could help managers generate feasible and balanced risk-aversion allocation plans, and analyze the trade-offs between system stability and economy.

  15. Too Risk Averse to Stay Honest? Business Corruption, Uncertainty and Attitudes Toward Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Soreide, T.

    2009-01-01

    The presence of business-corruption provokes firms to make choices between legal business approaches and illegal bribery. The outcome of a chosen strategy will usually be uncertain at the time the decision is made, and a firm's decision will depend partly on its attitude towards risk. Drawing on empirical results about business corruption, this paper describes the risks, uncertainties and benefits attached to bribery, and specifies their impact on firms' propensity to offer bribes. it then de...

  16. Prospect theory and body mass: characterizing psychological parameters for weight-related risk attitudes and weight-gain aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Seung-Lark; Bruce, Amanda S

    2015-01-01

    We developed a novel decision-making paradigm that allows us to apply prospect theory in behavioral economics to body mass. 67 healthy young adults completed self-report measures and two decision-making tasks for weight-loss, as well as for monetary rewards. We estimated risk-related preference and loss aversion parameters for each individual, separately for weight-loss and monetary rewards choice data. Risk-seeking tendency for weight-loss was positively correlated with body mass index in individuals who desired to lose body weight, whereas the risk-seeking for momentary rewards was not. Risk-seeking for weight-loss was correlated to excessive body shape preoccupations, while aversion to weight-gain was correlated with self-reports of behavioral involvement for successful weight-loss. We demonstrated that prospect theory can be useful in explaining the decision-making process related to body mass. Applying prospect theory is expected to advance our understanding of decision-making mechanisms in obesity, which might prove helpful for improving healthy choices.

  17. Prospect theory and body mass: Characterizing psychological parameters for weight-related risk attitudes and weight-gain aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung-Lark eLim

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We developed a novel decision-making paradigm that allows us to apply prospect theory in behavioral economics to body mass. 67 healthy young adults completed self-report measures and two decision-making tasks for weight-loss, as well as for monetary rewards. We estimated risk-related preference and loss aversion parameters for each individual, separately for weight-loss and monetary rewards choice data. Risk-seeking tendency for weight-loss was positively correlated with body mass index in individuals who desired to lose body weight, whereas the risk-seeking for momentary rewards was not. Risk-seeking for weight-loss was correlated to excessive body shape preoccupations, while aversion to weight-gain was correlated with self-reports of behavioral involvement for successful weight-loss. We demonstrated that prospect theory can be useful in explaining the decision-making process related to body mass. Applying prospect theory is expected to advance our understanding of decision-making mechanisms in obesity, which might prove helpful for improving healthy choices.

  18. Risk aversion and risk seeking in multicriteria forest management: a Markov decision process approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou; Craig Johnston

    2017-01-01

    Markov decision process models were extended to reflect some consequences of the risk attitude of forestry decision makers. One approach consisted of maximizing the expected value of a criterion subject to an upper bound on the variance or, symmetrically, minimizing the variance subject to a lower bound on the expected value.  The other method used the certainty...

  19. Stochastic risk-averse coordinated scheduling of grid integrated energy storage units in transmission constrained wind-thermal systems within a conditional value-at-risk framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemmati, Reza; Saboori, Hedayat; Saboori, Saeid

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, wind power resources have been integrated in the power systems increasingly. Besides confirmed benefits, utilization of large share of this volatile source in power generation portfolio has been faced system operators with new challenges in terms of uncertainty management. It is proved that energy storage systems are capable to handle projected uncertainty concerns. Risk-neutral methods have been proposed in the previous literature to schedule storage units considering wind resources uncertainty. Ignoring risk of the cost distributions with non-desirable properties may result in experiencing high costs in some unfavorable scenarios with high probability. In order to control the risk of the operator decisions, this paper proposes a new risk-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to make optimal decisions on energy storage and thermal units in a transmission constrained hybrid wind-thermal power system. Risk-aversion procedure is explicitly formulated using the conditional value-at-risk measure, because of possessing distinguished features compared to the other risk measures. The proposed model is a mixed integer linear programming considering transmission network, thermal unit dynamics, and storage devices constraints. The simulations results demonstrate that taking the risk of the problem into account will affect scheduling decisions considerably depend on the level of the risk-aversion. - Highlights: • Risk of the operation decisions is handled by using risk-averse programming. • Conditional value-at-risk is used as risk measure. • Optimal risk level is obtained based on the cost/benefit analysis. • The proposed model is a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming. • The unit commitment is integrated with ESSs and wind power penetration.

  20. Do no harm: Risk aversion versus risk management in the context of pedagogic frailty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie A. Hulme

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Innovation in teaching ensures that education remains fit for purpose in a changing world. The model of pedagogic frailty proposes that educators may perceive innovation as risky, which may inhibit innovation, and thus reduce opportunities to update learning experiences. Within psychology, psychological literacy (the skills, knowledge and attributes acquired as outcomes of studying psychology is becoming increasingly central to the curriculum. Educators are teaching more applied psychology, which requires new pedagogic approaches and are adopting and modelling core professional values espoused as components of psychological literacy, including evidence-based practice, ethics, and professional competence. We argue that psychology educators (and those from other disciplines may assess the risk of innovation through the lenses of these professional values. The decision to maintain ‘safe’ practices may reflect a risk management approach, rather than frailty. We propose a model whereby frailty may depend on social context and risk in different educational circumstances. The professional values associated with psychological literacy and similar integrative disciplinary constructs, which at first seem to hinder innovation, may promote innovation which is creative and safe, and will facilitate the development of a rigorous evidence base to inform future practice.

  1. Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-06-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed

  2. Alcohol reduces aversion to ambiguity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz eTyszka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Several years ago, Cohen, Dearnaley, and Hansel [1] demonstrated that under the influence of alcohol drivers became more risk prone, although their risk perception remained unchanged. Research shows that ambiguity aversion is to some extent positively correlated with risk aversion, though not very highly [2]. The question addressed by the present research is whether alcohol reduces ambiguity aversion. Our research was conducted in a natural setting (a restaurant bar, where customers with differing levels of alcohol intoxication were offered a choice between a risky and an ambiguous lottery. We found that alcohol reduced ambiguity aversion and that the effect occurred in men but not women. We interpret these findings in terms of the risk-as-value hypothesis, according to which, people in Western culture tend to value risk, and suggest that alcohol consumption triggers adherence to socially and culturally valued patterns of conduct different for men and women.

  3. Alcohol reduces aversion to ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyszka, Tadeusz; Macko, Anna; Stańczak, Maciej

    2014-01-01

    Several years ago, Cohen et al. (1958) demonstrated that under the influence of alcohol drivers became more risk prone, although their risk perception remained unchanged. Research shows that ambiguity aversion is to some extent positively correlated with risk aversion, though not very highly (Camerer and Weber, 1992). The question addressed by the present research is whether alcohol reduces ambiguity aversion. Our research was conducted in a natural setting (a restaurant bar), where customers with differing levels of alcohol intoxication were offered a choice between a risky and an ambiguous lottery. We found that alcohol reduced ambiguity aversion and that the effect occurred in men but not women. We interpret these findings in terms of the risk-as-value hypothesis, according to which, people in Western culture tend to value risk, and suggest that alcohol consumption triggers adherence to socially and culturally valued patterns of conduct different for men and women.

  4. Does a too risk-averse approach to the implementation of new radiotherapy technologies delay their clinical use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, R; Nyström, H; Fiorino, C; Thwaites, D

    2015-07-01

    Radiotherapy is a generally safe treatment modality in practice; nevertheless, recent well-reported accidents also confirm its potential risks. However, this may obstruct or delay the introduction of new technologies and treatment strategies/techniques into clinical practice. Risks must be addressed and judged in a realistic context: risks must be assessed realistically. Introducing new technology may introduce new possibilities of errors. However, delaying the introduction of such new technology therefore means that patients are denied the potentially better treatment opportunities. Despite the difficulty in quantitatively assessing the risks on both sides of the possible choice of actions, including the "lost opportunity", the best estimates should be included in the overall risk-benefit and cost-benefit analysis. Radiotherapy requires a sufficiently high level of support for the safety, precision and accuracy required: radiotherapy development and implementation is exciting. However, it has been anxious with a constant awareness of the consequences of mistakes or misunderstandings. Recent history can be used to show that for introduction of advanced radiotherapy, the risk-averse medical physicist can act as an electrical fuse in a complex circuit. The lack of sufficient medical physics resource or expertise can short out this fuse and leave systems unsafe. Future technological developments will continue to present further safety and risk challenges. The important evolution of radiotherapy brings different management opinions and strategies. Advanced radiotherapy technologies can and should be safely implemented in as timely a manner as possible for the patient groups where clinical benefit is indicated.

  5. Therapeutic Decisions in Atrial Fibrillation for Stroke Prevention: The Role of Aversion to Ambiguity and Physicians' Risk Preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sposato, Luciano A; Stirling, Devin; Saposnik, Gustavo

    2018-04-09

    Knowledge-to-action gaps influence therapeutic decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF). Physician-related factors are common, but the least studied. We evaluated the prevalence and determinants of physician-related factors and knowledge-to-action gaps among physicians involved in the management of AF patients. In this cross-sectional study, participants from 6 South American countries recruited during an educational program answered questions regarding 16 case scenarios of patients with AF and completed experiments assessing 3 outcome measures: therapeutic inertia, herding, and errors in risk stratification knowledge translated into action (ERSKTA) based on commonly used stratification tools (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years (double), Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism (double), Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, and female gender (score of 0 for males and 1 for female) (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years, Diabetes mellitus, and previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack (double) (CHADS 2 )). Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine factors associated with the outcomes. Overall, 149 physicians were invited to participate, of which 88 (59.1%) completed the online assessment tool. Cardiology was the most frequent specialty (69.3%). Therapeutic inertia was present in 53 participants (60.2%), herding in 66 (75.0%), and ERSKTA in 46 (52.3%). Therapeutic inertia was inversely associated with willingness to take financial risks (odds ratio [OR] .72, 95% confidence interval [CI] .59-.89 per point in the financial risk propensity score), herding was associated with aversion to ambiguity in the medical domain (OR 5.35, 95% CI 1.40-20.46), and ERSKTA was associated with the willingness to take risks (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.15-2.50, per point in score). Among physicians involved in stroke prevention in AF, individual risk preferences and aversion to ambiguity lead

  6. The effect of accountability on loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieider, Ferdinand M

    2009-09-01

    This paper investigates the effect of accountability-the expectation on the side of the decision maker of having to justify his/her decisions to somebody else-on loss aversion. Loss aversion is commonly thought to be the strongest component of risk aversion. Accountability is found to reduce the bias of loss aversion. This effect is explained by the higher cognitive effort induced by accountability, which triggers a rational check on emotional reactions at the base of loss aversion, leading to a reduction of the latter. Connections to dual-processing models are discussed.

  7. Risk-averse portfolio selection of renewable electricity generator investments in Brazil: An optimised multi-market commercialisation strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier, Sebastian; Street, Alexandre; McKinnon, Ken

    2016-01-01

    Investment decisions in renewable energy sources such as small hydro, wind power, biomass and solar are frequently made in the context of enormous uncertainty surrounding both intermittent generation and the highly volatile electricity spot prices that are used for clearing of trades. This paper presents a new portfolio-based approach for selecting long-term investments in small-scale renewable energy projects and matching contracts for the sale of the resulting electricity. Using this approach, we have formulated a stochastic optimisation model that maximises a holding company's risk-averse measure of value. Using an illustrative example representative of investment decisions within the Brazilian electricity system, we investigate the sensitivity of the optimised portfolio composition and commercialisation strategy to contract prices in the free contracting environment and to the decision maker's attitude towards risk. The numerical results demonstrate it is possible to reduce significantly financial risks, such as the price-quantity risk, not only by exploiting the complementarity of the considered renewable sources generation profiles, but also by selecting the optimal mix of commercialisation contracts from different markets. We find that the multi-market strategy generally results in appreciably higher optimal value than single-market strategies and can be applied to a wide range of renewable generators and contracts. - Highlights: • Gives a portfolio-based multi-market, multi-asset approach to renewable investment. • Details how to model currently used contract types in each of the Brazilian markets. • Presents a test case using realistic contract and real renewable data from Brazil. • Shows that the approach controls financial risks and boosts optimal values. • Explains how relative contract prices and attitude to risk affect optimal decisions.

  8. Dose limits cause unacceptable risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collier, Sylvia.

    1985-01-01

    This paper on radiation dose limits for workers and the public discusses the following: Medical Research Council report; safety standards; risk assessment; deaths from cancers; biological radiation effects; UK legislation; low-level radiation; public concern; UKAEA staff survey; Ionising Radiations Regulations; United Nations Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation; US studies on work force in nuclear establishments; problems of extrapolation; Japanese data from Hiroshima and Nagasaki; International Commission on Radiological Protection recommendations; studies on uranium miners; UK Health and Safety Executive; UK National Radiological Protection Board. (U.K.)

  9. Study and Simulation on Dynamics of a Risk-Averse Supply Chain Pricing Model with Dual-Channel and Incomplete Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lijian; Ma, Junhai

    Under the industrial background of dual-channel, volatility in demand of consumers, we use the theory of bifurcations and numerical simulation tools to investigate the dynamic pricing game in a dual-channel supply chain with risk-averse behavior and incomplete information. Due to volatility of demand of consumers, we consider all the players in the supply chain are risk-averse. We assume there exist Bertrand game and Manufacturers’ Stackelberg in the chain which are closer to reality. The main objective of the paper is to investigate the complex influence of the decision parameters such as wholesale price adjustment speed, risk preference and service value on stability of the risk-averse supply chain and average utilities of all the players. We lay emphasis on the influence of chaos on average utilities of all the players which did not appear in previous studies. The dynamic phenomena, such as the bifurcation, chaos and sensitivity to initial values are analyzed by 2D bifurcation phase portraits, Double Largest Lyapunov exponent, basins of attraction and so on. The study shows that the manufacturers should slow down their wholesale price adjustment speed to get more utilities, if the manufacturers are willing to take on more risk, they will get more profits, but they must keep their wholesale prices in a certain range in order to maintain the market stability.

  10. Aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks affect therapeutic decisions in managing atrial fibrillation for stroke prevention: results of a pilot study in family physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raptis, Stavroula; Chen, Jia Ning; Saposnik, Florencia; Pelyavskyy, Roman; Liuni, Andrew; Saposnik, Gustavo

    2017-01-01

    Anticoagulation is the therapeutic paradigm for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It is unknown how physicians make treatment decisions in primary stroke prevention for patients with AF. To evaluate the association between family physicians' risk preferences (aversion risk and ambiguity) and therapeutic recommendations (anticoagulation) in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention by applying concepts from behavioral economics. Overall, 73 family physicians participated and completed the study. Our study comprised seven simulated case vignettes, three behavioral experiments, and two validated surveys. Behavioral experiments and surveys incorporated an economic framework to determine risk preferences and biases (e.g., ambiguity aversion, willingness to take risks). The primary outcome was making the correct decision of anticoagulation therapy. Secondary outcomes included medical errors in the management of AF for stroke prevention. Overall, 23.3% (17/73) of the family physicians elected not to escalate the therapy from antiplatelets to anticoagulation when recommended by best practice guidelines. A total of 67.1% of physicians selected the correct therapeutic options in two or more of the three simulated case vignettes. Multivariate analysis showed that aversion to ambiguity was associated with appropriate change to anticoagulation therapy in the management of AF (OR 5.48, 95% CI 1.08-27.85). Physicians' willingness to take individual risk in multiple domains was associated with lower errors (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.03-0.86). Physicians' aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks are associated with appropriate therapeutic decisions in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention. Further large scale studies are needed.

  11. Aversive odorant causing appetite decrease downregulates tyrosine decarboxylase gene expression in the olfactory receptor neuron of the blowfly, Phormia regina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Yuko; Ozaki, Mamiko

    2012-01-01

    In the blowfly Phormia regina, exposure to d-limonene for 5 days during feeding inhibits proboscis extension reflex behavior due to decreasing tyramine (TA) titer in the brain. TA is synthesized by tyrosine decarboxylase (Tdc) and catalyzed into octopamine (OA) by TA ß-hydroxylase (Tbh). To address the mechanisms of TA titer regulation in the blowfly, we cloned Tdc and Tbh cDNAs from P. regina (PregTdc and PregTbh). The deduced amino acid sequences of both proteins showed high identity to those of the corresponding proteins from Drosophila melanogaster at the amino acid level. PregTdc was expressed in the antenna, labellum, and tarsus whereas PregTbh was expressed in the head, indicating that TA is mainly synthesized in the sensory organs whereas OA is primarily synthesized in the brain. d-Limonene exposure significantly decreased PregTdc expression in the antenna but not in the labellum and the tarsus, indicating that PregTdc expressed in the antenna is responsible for decreasing TA titer. PregTdc-like immunoreactive material was localized in the thin-walled sensillum. In contrast, the OA/TA receptor (PregOAR/TAR) was localized to the thick-walled sensillum. The results indicated that d-limonene inhibits PregTdc expression in the olfactory receptor neurons in the thin-walled sensilla, likely resulting in reduced TA levels in the receptor neurons in the antenna. TA may be transferred from the receptor neuron to the specific synaptic junction in the antennal lobe of the brain through the projection neurons and play a role in conveying the aversive odorant information to the projection and local neurons.

  12. Inexact stochastic risk-aversion optimal day-ahead dispatch model for electricity system management with wind power under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, Ling; Huang, Guo-He; Huang, Lu-Cheng; Xie, Yu-Lei; Niu, Dong-Xiao

    2016-01-01

    High penetration of wind power generation and deregulated electricity market brings a great challenge to the electricity system operators. It is crucial to make optimal strategy among various generation units and spinning reserve for supporting the system safety operation. By integrating interval two-stage programming and stochastic robust programming, this paper proposes a novel robust model for day-ahead dispatch and risk-aversion management under uncertainties. In the proposed model, the uncertainties are expressed as interval values with different scenario probability. The proposed method requires low computation, and still retains the complete information. A case study is to validate the effectiveness of this approach. Facing the uncertainties of future demand and electricity price, the system operators need to make optimal dispatch strategy for thermal power units and wind turbine, and arrange proper spinning reserve and flexible demand response program to mitigate wind power forecasting error. The optimal strategies provide the system operators with better trade-off between the maximum benefits and the minimum system risk. In additional, two different market rules are compared. The results show that extra financial penalty for the wind power dispatch deviation is another efficient way to enhance the risk consciousness of decision makers and lead to more conservative strategy. - Highlights: • An inexact two-stage stochastic robust programming model for electricity system with wind power penetration. • Uncertainties expressed as discrete intervals and probability distributions. • Demand response program was introduced to adjust the deviation in real-time market. • Financial penalty for imbalance risk from wind power generation was evaluated.

  13. Aging and loss decision making: increased risk aversion and decreased use of maximizing information, with correlated rationality and value maximization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A; Sim, Sam K Y; Chee, Michael W L; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A

    2015-01-01

    We investigated how adult aging specifically alters economic decision-making, focusing on examining alterations in uncertainty preferences (willingness to gamble) and choice strategies (what gamble information influences choices) within both the gains and losses domains. Within each domain, participants chose between certain monetary outcomes and gambles with uncertain outcomes. We examined preferences by quantifying how uncertainty modulates choice behavior as if altering the subjective valuation of gambles. We explored age-related preferences for two types of uncertainty, risk, and ambiguity. Additionally, we explored how aging may alter what information participants utilize to make their choices by comparing the relative utilization of maximizing and satisficing information types through a choice strategy metric. Maximizing information was the ratio of the expected value of the two options, while satisficing information was the probability of winning. We found age-related alterations of economic preferences within the losses domain, but no alterations within the gains domain. Older adults (OA; 61-80 years old) were significantly more uncertainty averse for both risky and ambiguous choices. OA also exhibited choice strategies with decreased use of maximizing information. Within OA, we found a significant correlation between risk preferences and choice strategy. This linkage between preferences and strategy appears to derive from a convergence to risk neutrality driven by greater use of the effortful maximizing strategy. As utility maximization and value maximization intersect at risk neutrality, this result suggests that OA are exhibiting a relationship between enhanced rationality and enhanced value maximization. While there was variability in economic decision-making measures within OA, these individual differences were unrelated to variability within examined measures of cognitive ability. Our results demonstrate that aging alters economic decision-making for

  14. Aging and loss decision making: increased risk aversion and decreased use of maximizing information, with correlated rationality and value maximization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoanna Arlina Kurnianingsih

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We investigated how adult aging specifically alters economic decision-making, focusing on examining alterations in uncertainty preferences (willingness to gamble and choice strategies (what gamble information influences choices within both the gains and losses domains. Within each domain, participants chose between certain monetary outcomes and gambles with uncertain outcomes. We examined preferences by quantifying how uncertainty modulates choice behavior as if altering the subjective valuation of gambles. We explored age-related preferences for two types of uncertainty, risk and ambiguity. Additionally, we explored how aging may alter what information participants utilize to make their choices by comparing the relative utilization of maximizing and satisficing information types through a choice strategy metric. Maximizing information was the ratio of the expected value of the two options, while satisficing information was the probability of winning.We found age-related alterations of economic preferences within the losses domain, but no alterations within the gains domain. Older adults (OA; 61 to 80 years old were significantly more uncertainty averse for both risky and ambiguous choices. OA also exhibited choice strategies with decreased use of maximizing information. Within OA, we found a significant correlation between risk preferences and choice strategy. This linkage between preferences and strategy appears to derive from a convergence to risk neutrality driven by greater use of the effortful maximizing strategy. As utility maximization and value maximization intersect at risk neutrality, this result suggests that OA are exhibiting a relationship between enhanced rationality and enhanced value maximization. While there was variability in economic decision-making measures within OA, these individual differences were unrelated to variability within examined measures of cognitive ability. Our results demonstrate that aging alters economic

  15. Behavioral and neural correlates of loss aversion and risk avoidance in adolescents and adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkley-Levenson, Emily E; Van Leijenhorst, Linda; Galván, Adriana

    2013-01-01

    Individuals are frequently faced with risky decisions involving the potential for both gain and loss. Exploring the role of both potential gains and potential losses in predicting risk taking is critical to understanding how adolescents and adults make the choice to engage in or avoid a real-life risk. This study aimed to examine the impact of potential losses as well as gains on adolescent decisions during risky choice in a laboratory task. Adolescent (n=18) and adult (n=16) participants underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during a mixed gambles task, and completed questionnaires measuring real-world risk-taking behaviors. While potential loss had a significantly greater effect on choice than potential gain in both adolescents and adults and there were no behavioral group differences on the task, adolescents recruited significantly more frontostriatal circuitry than adults when choosing to reject a gamble. During risk-seeking behavior, adolescent activation in medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) was negatively correlated with self-reported likelihood of risk taking. During risk-avoidant behavior, mPFC activation of in adults was negatively correlated with self-reported benefits of risk-taking. Taken together, these findings reflect different neural patterns during risk-taking and risk-avoidant behaviors in adolescents and adults. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Assessment of cardiovascular risk of new drugs for the treatment of diabetes mellitus: risk assessment vs. risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zannad, Faiez; Stough, Wendy Gattis; Lipicky, Raymond J; Tamargo, Juan; Bakris, George L; Borer, Jeffrey S; Alonso García, Maria de Los Angeles; Hadjadj, Samy; Koenig, Wolfgang; Kupfer, Stuart; McCullough, Peter A; Mosenzon, Ofri; Pocock, Stuart; Scheen, André J; Sourij, Harald; Van der Schueren, Bart; Stahre, Christina; White, William B; Calvo, Gonzalo

    2016-07-01

    The Food and Drug Administration issued guidance for evaluating the cardiovascular risk of new diabetes mellitus drugs in 2008. Accumulating evidence from several completed trials conducted within this framework raises questions as to whether requiring safety outcome studies for all new diabetes mellitus therapies remains justified. Given the burden of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes, the focus should shift towards cardiovascular outcome studies designed to evaluate efficacy (i.e. to determine the efficacy of a drug over placebo or standard care) rather than demonstrating that risk is not increased by a pre-specified safety margin. All stakeholders are responsible for ensuring that new drug approvals occur under conditions of appropriate safety and effectiveness. It is also a shared responsibility to avoid unnecessary hurdles that may compromise access to useful drugs and threaten the sustainability of health systems. It is critical to renew this debate so that stakeholders can collectively determine the optimal approach for developing new drugs to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Risk-averse purchasing behavior of female dentists and innovation in dental practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J McGrath

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The aim of this study was to see if there was any correlation between the variables of age, gender, practice location and longevity, and type of practice on the risk-taking behavior of dentists in Connecticut. Risk-taking behavior was defined as the willingness to adopt new technologies. A questionnaire was used to gather data, and a series of questions were then posed to estimate the degree to which the responding dentists would be willing to implement the technology into their practices. Materials and Methods: Three hundred Connecticut dentists were randomly selected from a list of dentists that was provided by Benco Dental Supply Company. A questionnaire was written and mailed to all 300 dentists with a return envelope inside. One hundred twenty-nine dentists responded. The questionnaire contained questions to gather demographic information about the respondents. It posed a hypothetical situation that described a new imaging technology that was recently brought into the market. The only differences between this technology and current imaging machines were that it did not emit any radiation, and it was twice as expensive as comparable imaging technologies. A risk score was calculated based on the responses to the three main questions. Those who would adopt the technology quickly or immediately received higher risk scores, and those who would wait or would not buy the technology at all received low risk scores. The data were then analyzed with SPSS software to detect if there were statistically significant differences between different groups of dentists. Results: Male dentists were found to have higher risk scores than their female counterparts. Men in the 30-39-years age range had the highest risk scores, while women in this age range had the lowest. As age increased, the difference between the sexes decreased. Specialists were found to have higher risk scores compared to general dentists of the same gender; however, male

  18. Risk aversion and uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis: the expected-utility, moment-generating function approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbasha, Elamin H

    2005-05-01

    The availability of patient-level data from clinical trials has spurred a lot of interest in developing methods for quantifying and presenting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Although the majority has focused on developing methods for using sample data to estimate a confidence interval for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), a small strand of the literature has emphasized the importance of incorporating risk preferences and the trade-off between the mean and the variance of returns to investment in health and medicine (mean-variance analysis). This paper shows how the exponential utility-moment-generating function approach is a natural extension to this branch of the literature for modelling choices from healthcare interventions with uncertain costs and effects. The paper assumes an exponential utility function, which implies constant absolute risk aversion, and is based on the fact that the expected value of this function results in a convenient expression that depends only on the moment-generating function of the random variables. The mean-variance approach is shown to be a special case of this more general framework. The paper characterizes the solution to the resource allocation problem using standard optimization techniques and derives the summary measure researchers need to estimate for each programme, when the assumption of risk neutrality does not hold, and compares it to the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The importance of choosing the correct distribution of costs and effects and the issues related to estimation of the parameters of the distribution are also discussed. An empirical example to illustrate the methods and concepts is provided. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

  19. Risk averse optimal operation of a virtual power plant using two stage stochastic programming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tajeddini, Mohammad Amin; Rahimi-Kian, Ashkan; Soroudi, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    VPP (Virtual Power Plant) is defined as a cluster of energy conversion/storage units which are centrally operated in order to improve the technical and economic performance. This paper addresses the optimal operation of a VPP considering the risk factors affecting its daily operation profits. The optimal operation is modelled in both day ahead and balancing markets as a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming in order to maximize a GenCo (generation companies) expected profit. Furthermore, the CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) is used as a risk measure technique in order to control the risk of low profit scenarios. The uncertain parameters, including the PV power output, wind power output and day-ahead market prices are modelled through scenarios. The proposed model is successfully applied to a real case study to show its applicability and the results are presented and thoroughly discussed. - Highlights: • Virtual power plant modelling considering a set of energy generating and conversion units. • Uncertainty modelling using two stage stochastic programming technique. • Risk modelling using conditional value at risk. • Flexible operation of renewable energy resources. • Electricity price uncertainty in day ahead energy markets

  20. Decision Making in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART): Anterior Cingulate Cortex Signals Loss-Aversion but not the Infrequency of Risky Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukunaga, Rena; Brown, Joshua W.; Bogg, Tim

    2012-01-01

    The inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula (IFG/AI) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are key regions involved in risk appraisal during decision making, but accounts of how these regions contribute to decision-making under risk remain contested. To help clarify the roles of these and other related regions, we used a modified version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002) to distinguish between decision-making and feedback-related processes when participants decided to pursue a gain as the probability of loss increased parametrically. Specifically, we set out to test whether ACC and IFG/AI regions correspond to loss-aversion at the time of decision making in a way that is not confounded with either reward-seeking or infrequency effects. When participants chose to discontinue inflating the balloon (win option), we observed greater ACC and mainly bilateral IFG/AI activity at the time of decision as the probability of explosion increased, consistent with increased loss-aversion but inconsistent with an infrequency effect. In contrast, we found robust vmPFC activity when participants chose to continue inflating the balloon (risky option), consistent with reward-seeking. However, in the cingulate and mainly bilateral IFG regions, BOLD activation decreased when participants chose to inflate the balloon as the probability of explosion increased, findings consistent with a reduced loss-aversion signal. Our results highlight the existence of distinct reward-seeking and loss-averse signals during decision-making, as well as the importance of distinguishing decision and feedback signals. PMID:22707378

  1. Decision making in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART): anterior cingulate cortex signals loss aversion but not the infrequency of risky choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukunaga, Rena; Brown, Joshua W; Bogg, Tim

    2012-09-01

    The inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula (IFG/AI) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are key regions involved in risk appraisal during decision making, but accounts of how these regions contribute to decision making under risk remain contested. To help clarify the roles of these and other related regions, we used a modified version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 8, 75-84, 2002) to distinguish between decision-making and feedback-related processes when participants decided to pursue a gain as the probability of loss increased parametrically. Specifically, we set out to test whether the ACC and IFG/AI regions correspond to loss aversion at the time of decision making in a way that is not confounded with either reward-seeking or infrequency effects. When participants chose to discontinue inflating the balloon (win option), we observed greater ACC and mainly bilateral IFG/AI activity at the time of decision as the probability of explosion increased, consistent with increased loss aversion but inconsistent with an infrequency effect. In contrast, we found robust vmPFC activity when participants chose to continue inflating the balloon (risky option), consistent with reward seeking. However, in the cingulate and in mainly bilateral IFG regions, blood-oxygenation-level-dependent activation decreased when participants chose to inflate the balloon as the probability of explosion increased, findings that are consistent with a reduced loss aversion signal. Our results highlight the existence of distinct reward-seeking and loss-averse signals during decision making, as well as the importance of distinguishing between decision and feedback signals.

  2. Reacting to Crises: The Risk-Averse Nature of Contemporary American Public Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, numerous arguments have been made advancing the notion that the failings of the public education system in the United States have placed the nation's national security or economic prosperity at risk. This article will examine some of these "crises" and explore how arguments claiming that the shortcomings of…

  3. Animal testing, 3R models and regulatory acceptance : Technology transition in a risk-averse context

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schiffelers, M.J.W.A.

    2016-01-01

    Risk avoidance has resulted in a broad range of regulations to guarantee the safety of products such as pharmaceuticals and chemicals. Many of these regulations rely on animal tests. About 3 million laboratory animals are used annually in Europe to meet such regulatory requirements.Regulatory animal

  4. Deciding for Future Selves Reduces Loss Aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiqi Cheng

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present an incentivized experiment to investigate the degree of loss aversion when people make decisions for their current selves and future selves under risk. We find that when participants make decisions for their future selves, they are less loss averse compared to when they make decisions for their current selves. This finding is consistent with the interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision-making driven by emotions, which are reduced when making decisions for future selves. Our findings endorsed the external validity of previous studies on the impact of emotion on loss aversion in a real world decision-making environment.

  5. Deciding for Future Selves Reduces Loss Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Qiqi; He, Guibing

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present an incentivized experiment to investigate the degree of loss aversion when people make decisions for their current selves and future selves under risk. We find that when participants make decisions for their future selves, they are less loss averse compared to when they make decisions for their current selves. This finding is consistent with the interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision-making driven by emotions, which are reduced when making decisions for future selves. Our findings endorsed the external validity of previous studies on the impact of emotion on loss aversion in a real world decision-making environment.

  6. Effects of Risk Aversion on Market Outcomes: A Stochastic Two-Stage Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kazempour, Jalal; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    This paper evaluates how different risk preferences of electricity producers alter the market-clearing outcomes. Toward this goal, we propose a stochastic equilibrium model for electricity markets with two settlements, i.e., day-ahead and balancing, in which a number of conventional and stochastic...... by its optimality conditions, resulting in a mixed complementarity problem. Numerical results from a case study based on the IEEE one-area reliability test system are derived and discussed....

  7. Irrigation, risk aversion, and water right priority under water supply uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Man; Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W.

    2017-09-01

    This paper explores the impacts of a water right's allocative priority—as an indicator of farmers' risk-bearing ability—on land irrigation under water supply uncertainty. We develop and use an economic model to simulate farmers' land irrigation decision and associated economic returns in eastern Idaho. Results indicate that the optimal acreage of land irrigated increases with water right priority when hydroclimate risk exhibits a negatively skewed or right-truncated distribution. Simulation results suggest that prior appropriation enables senior water rights holders to allocate a higher proportion of their land to irrigation, 6 times as much as junior rights holders do, creating a gap in the annual expected net revenue reaching up to 141.4 acre-1 or 55,800 per farm between the two groups. The optimal irrigated acreage, expected net revenue, and shadow value of a water right's priority are subject to substantial changes under a changing climate in the future, where temporal variation in water supply risks significantly affects the profitability of agricultural land use under the priority-based water sharing mechanism.

  8. On the influence of uncertainties in estimating risk aversion and working interest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    The influence of uncertainties in costs, value, success probability, risk tolerance and mandated working interest are evaluated for their impact on assessing probable ranges of uncertainty on risk adjusted value, RAV, using different models. The relative importance of different factors in contributing to the uncertainty in RAV is analyzed, as is the influence of different probability distributions for the intrinsic variables entering the RAV model formulae. Numerical illustrations indicate how the RAV probabilities depend not only on the model functions (Cozzolino, hyperbolic tangent) used to provide RAV estimates, but also on the intrinsic shapes of the probability distributions from which are drawn input parameter values for Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, a mandated range of working interest can be addressed as an extra variable contributing to the probabilistic range of RAV; while negative RAV values for high-cost project can be used to assess the probable buy-out amount one should be prepared to pay depending on corporate risk philosophy. Also, the procedures illustrate how the relative contributions of scientific factors influence uncertainty of reserve assessments, allowing one to determine where to concentrate effort to improve the ranges of uncertainty. (Author)

  9. Research on closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium with two-type suppliers, risk-averse manufacturers and capacity constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Sun

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the aim of this paper is to investigate the closed-loop supply chain (CLSC network equilibrium wiht the consideration of three practical factors: two complementary types of suppliers, risk-averse character of the manufacturer and capacity constraints of the suppliers. Design/methodology/approach: The equilibrium of various decision makers including the suppliers, the manufacturers, the retailers, the collectors and the demand markets are modeled via finite-dimensional variational inequality, respectively. Then the governing CLSC network equilibrium model is established. The logarithmic-quadratic proximal prediction-correction algorithm is designed to solve the variational inequality model. Numerical examples are given to analyze the impact of return rate, risk-averse degree and capacity constraints on the network equilibrium under different product BOMs. Findings: with the increase of return rate, the profits of various channel members and the performance of the CLSC system will improve. There is a contradiction between profit maximization and risk minimization for the manufacturers. Moreover, the economic behavior of the CLSC is likely to be limited by the capacity constraints of the suppliers. Originality/value: Prior to this paper, few papers have addressed with the CLSC network equilibrium considering some practical factors. They assume all the suppliers are identical and all the decision-makers are risk neutral. Furthermore, the production capacities of all suppliers are assumed to be infinite or large enough. To fill the gap, this paper examines the influences of two-type suppliers, risk aversion and capacity constraints upon the CLSC network equilibrium.

  10. Aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks affect therapeutic decisions in managing atrial fibrillation for stroke prevention: results of a pilot study in family physicians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raptis S

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Stavroula Raptis,1,* Jia Ning Chen,2,* Florencia Saposnik,2 Roman Pelyavskyy,2 Andrew Liuni,3 Gustavo Saposnik2,4 On behalf of the Stroke Outcomes Research Canada Working Group (SORCan- www.sorcan.ca 1Applied Health Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, 2Stroke Outcomes and Decision Neuroscience Research Unit, Department of Medicine, St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, 3Medical Department, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada Ltd., Burlington, ON, Canada; 4Neuroeconomics and Decision Neuroscience, Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: Anticoagulation is the therapeutic paradigm for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF. It is unknown how physicians make treatment decisions in primary stroke prevention for patients with AF. Objectives: To evaluate the association between family physicians’ risk preferences (aversion risk and ambiguity and therapeutic recommendations (anticoagulation in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention by applying concepts from behavioral economics. Methods: Overall, 73 family physicians participated and completed the study. Our study comprised seven simulated case vignettes, three behavioral experiments, and two validated surveys. Behavioral experiments and surveys incorporated an economic framework to determine risk preferences and biases (e.g., ambiguity aversion, willingness to take risks. The primary outcome was making the correct decision of anticoagulation therapy. Secondary outcomes included medical errors in the management of AF for stroke prevention. Results: Overall, 23.3% (17/73 of the family physicians elected not to escalate the therapy from antiplatelets to anticoagulation when recommended by best practice guidelines. A total of 67.1% of physicians selected the correct therapeutic options in two or more of the three simulated case vignettes. Multivariate

  11. Myopic loss aversion revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Blavatskyy, Pavlo; Pogrebna, Ganna

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we reexamine several experimental papers on myopic loss aversion by analyzing individual rather than aggregate choice patterns. We find that the behavior of the majority of subjects is inconsistent with the hypothesis of myopic loss aversion.

  12. Multiattribute Utility Theory, Intertemporal Utility and Correlation Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten

    2018-01-01

    Convenient assumptions about qualitative properties of the intertemporal utility function have generated counterintuitive implications for the relationship between atemporal risk aversion and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. If the intertemporal utility function is additively separable...... aversion. Our results show that subjects are correlation averse over lotteries with intertemporal income profiles....

  13. Complex dynamics of a MC-MS pricing model for a risk-averse supply chain with after-sale investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junhai; Sun, Lijian

    2015-09-01

    In this paper, we investigate the pricing strategy of the manufacturers and that of a common retailer, including their after-sale investment in a risk-averse supply chain. As the demand is not always for sure, the supply chain follows Manufacturers Cooperating (MC) and Manufacturers Stackelberg (MS). The main objective of the paper is to investigate the influence of the decision parameters such as the after-sale investment, wholesale price adjustment speed and risk preference on the stability and utilities of the risk-averse supply chain. The dynamic phenomena, such as the bifurcation, chaos and sensitivity to initial values are analyzed with 2D-bifurcation diagrams, double largest Lyapunov exponent and basins of attraction. The study shows that the faster the adjustment speed is, the more profits the retailer can make, but on the other hand, it is no good to manufacturers. Risk tolerance levels (RM and RR) affect the utility of the manufacturers and that of the retailer differently. A feedback control method is used to control the chaos in the supply chain.

  14. Frontal, Striatal, and Medial Temporal Sensitivity to Value Distinguishes Risk-Taking from Risk-Aversive Older Adults during Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Joshua O S; Su, Yu-Shiang; Tang, Yong-Jheng; McCarrey, Anna C; Tereshchenko, Alexander; Elkins, Wendy; Resnick, Susan M

    2016-12-07

    Aging compromises the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas of the reward system, impeding accurate value representation and feedback processing critical for decision making. However, substantial variability characterizes age-related effects on the brain so that some older individuals evince clear neurocognitive declines whereas others are spared. Moreover, the functional correlates of normative individual differences in older-adult value-based decision making remain unclear. We performed a functional magnetic resonance imaging study in 173 human older adults during a lottery choice task in which costly to more desirable stakes were depicted using low to high expected values (EVs) of points. Across trials that varied in EVs, participants decided to accept or decline the offered stakes to maximize total accumulated points. We found that greater age was associated with less optimal decisions, accepting stakes when losses were likely and declining stakes when gains were likely, and was associated with increased frontal activity for costlier stakes. Critically, risk preferences varied substantially across older adults and neural sensitivity to EVs in the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas dissociated risk-aversive from risk-taking individuals. Specifically, risk-averters increased neural responses to increasing EVs as stakes became more desirable, whereas risk-takers increased neural responses with decreasing EV as stakes became more costly. Risk preference also modulated striatal responses during feedback with risk-takers showing more positive responses to gains compared with risk-averters. Our findings highlight the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas as key neural loci in which individual differences differentially affect value-based decision-making ability in older adults. Frontal, striatal, and medial temporal functions implicated in value-based decision processing of rewards and costs undergo substantial age-related changes. However, age

  15. Incidental fear cues increase monetary loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulreich, Stefan; Gerhardt, Holger; Heekeren, Hauke R

    2016-04-01

    In many everyday decisions, people exhibit loss aversion-a greater sensitivity to losses relative to gains of equal size. Loss aversion is thought to be (at least partly) mediated by emotional--in particular, fear-related--processes. Decision research has shown that even incidental emotions, which are unrelated to the decision at hand, can influence decision making. The effect of incidental fear on loss aversion, however, is thus far unclear. In two studies, we experimentally investigated how incidental fear cues, presented during (Study 1) or before (Study 2) choices to accept or reject mixed gambles over real monetary stakes, influence monetary loss aversion. We find that the presentation of fearful faces, relative to the presentation of neutral faces, increased risk aversion-an effect that could be attributed to increased loss aversion. The size of this effect was moderated by psychopathic personality: Fearless dominance, in particular its interpersonal facet, but not self-centered impulsivity, attenuated the effect of incidental fear cues on loss aversion, consistent with reduced fear reactivity. Together, these results highlight the sensitivity of loss aversion to the affective context. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: An introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease r...

  17. Accounting for risk aversion, income distribution, and social welfare in cost-benefit analysis for flood risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kind, Jarl; Botzen, W.J.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/297620584; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-01-01

    Most cost-benefit analysis (CBA) textbooks and guidelines recognize the objective of CBAs to improve social welfare—a function of well-being of all individuals, conceptualized by utility. However, today's common practice to value flood risk management benefits as the reduction of the expected annual

  18. Dynamic Estimation of Volatility Risk Premia and Investor Risk Aversion from Option-Implied and Realized Volatilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Gibson, Michael; Zhou, Hao

    experiment confirms that the procedure works well in practice. Implementing the procedure with actual S&P500 option-implied volatilities and high-frequency five-minute-based realized volatilities indicates significant temporal dependencies in the estimated stochastic volatility risk premium, which we in turn...

  19. Heterogeneity of Loss Aversion in Pathological Gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeuchi, Hideaki; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Yokoyama, Naoto; Takemura, Ariyoshi; Murao, Takuro; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

    2016-12-01

    Pathological gambling (PG) is characterized by continual repeated gambling behavior despite negative consequences. PG is considered to be a disorder of altered decision-making under risk, and behavioral economics tools were utilized by studies on decision-making under risk. At the same time, PG was suggested to be a heterogeneous disorder in terms of personality traits as well as risk attitude. We aimed to examine the heterogeneity of PG in terms of loss aversion, which means that a loss is subjectively felt to be larger than the same amount of gain. Thirty-one male PG subjects and 26 male healthy control (HC) subjects underwent a behavioral economics task for estimation of loss aversion and personality traits assessment. Although loss aversion in PG subjects was not significantly different from that in HC subjects, distributions of loss aversion differed between PG and HC subjects. HC subjects were uniformly classified into three levels (low, middle, high) of loss aversion, whereas PG subjects were mostly classified into the two extremes, and few PG subjects were classified into the middle range. PG subjects with low and high loss aversion showed a significant difference in anxiety, excitement-seeking and craving intensity. Our study suggested that PG was a heterogeneous disorder in terms of loss aversion. This result might be useful for understanding cognitive and neurobiological mechanisms and the establishment of treatment strategies for PG.

  20. Drugs and taste aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rondeau, D.B.; Jolicoeur, F.B.; Merkel, A.D.; Wayner, M.J.

    1981-01-01

    The literature on the effects of drugs on the acquisition and the magnitude of taste aversion is reviewed and discussed. Then, the results of a series of experiments on the effects of phenobarbital and related drugs on taste aversion are reported. A standard taste aversion model was used in all experiments; test drugs were injected prior to drinking in a one bottle situation on the first test day following the taste aversion treatment. Phenobarbital in doses ranging from 20 to 80 mg/kg significantly attenuated taste aversion induced by lithium chloride (LiCl) and x-radiation, the maximal effect occurred with the 60 mg/kg dose. The attenuating effect was found to be dependent upon the magnitude of the aversion to the sapid solution. Phenobarbital completely abolished aversion produced by 0.375 mEq LiCl while the attenuation effect decreased linearly with higher doses of LiCl. Results also indicate that phenobarbital's attenuating effect cannot be solely attributed to its dipsogenic characteristic or to its state dependent learning effect. Attenuation of LiCl aversion to a saccharin solution was also observed following single doses of amobarbital, 30 mg/kg, pentobarbital, 15 mg/kg, and chloropromazine, 0.75 mg/kg. Taste aversion was not affected by other doses of those drugs or by hexobarbital, barbital, and chlordiazepoxide. Phenobarbital's attenuating effect on taste aversion is discussed in relation to other known behavioral and neurophysiological effects of the drug

  1. Unpleasant odors increase aversion to monetary losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stancak, Andrej; Xie, Yuxin; Fallon, Nicholas; Bulsing, Patricia; Giesbrecht, Timo; Thomas, Anna; Pantelous, Athanasios A

    2015-04-01

    Loss aversion is the tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains of equal nominal values. Unpleasant odors not only influence affective state but have also been shown to activate brain regions similar to those mediating loss aversion. Therefore, we hypothesized a stronger loss aversion in a monetary gamble task if gambles were associated with an unpleasant as opposed to pleasant odor. In thirty human subjects, unpleasant (methylmercaptan), pleasant (jasmine), and neutral (clean air) odors were presented for 4 s. At the same time, uncertain gambles offering an equal chance of gain or loss of a variable amount of money, or a prospect of an assured win were displayed. One hundred different gambles were presented three times, each time paired with a different odor. Loss aversion, risk aversion, and logit sensitivity were evaluated using non-linear fitting of individual gamble decisions. Loss aversion was larger when prospects were displayed in the presence of methylmercaptan compared to jasmine or clean air. Moreover, individual differences in changes in loss aversion to the unpleasant as compared to pleasant odor correlated with odor pleasantness but not with odor intensity. Skin conductance responses to losses during the outcome period were larger when gambles were associated with methylmercaptan compared to jasmine. Increased loss aversion while perceiving an unpleasant odor suggests a dynamic adjustment of loss aversion toward greater sensitivity to losses. Given that odors are biological signals of hazards, such adjustment of loss aversion may have adaptive value in situations entailing threat or danger. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. [Amblyopia. Epidemiology, causes and risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elflein, H M

    2016-04-01

    Amblyopia is the main cause for mostly monocular, impaired vision in childhood. Treatment and prevention of amblyopia is only effective during childhood. Ophthalmological screening of children does not yet exist in Germany. The prevalence of amblyopia in Germany is 5.6%, which is higher than in reports from studies in Australia; however, the prevalence of amblyopia is not comparable in these studies due to different definitions of amblyopia and the inclusion/exclusion criteria of the study cohorts. At present it is unknown at what age ophthalmological screening should be carried out to prevent amblyopia and the appropriate frequency of screening examinations. Amblyopia is a disorder of the visual cortex that is due to suppression and deprivation of one eye leading to unilateral visual impairment. Approximately 50% of cases of amblyopia are caused by anisometropia, 25% by strabismus and in every sixth person by a combination of both. Other causes, such as unilateral congenital cataracts are relatively rare. A variety of factors, such as ocular pathologies, premature birth, familial disposition and general diseases are associated with an increased risk for amblyopia.

  3. Rats and seabirds: effects of egg size on predation risk and the potential of conditioned taste aversion as a mitigation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latorre, Lucía; Larrinaga, Asier R; Santamaría, Luis

    2013-01-01

    Seabirds nesting on islands are threatened by invasive rodents, such as mice and rats, which may attack eggs, chicks and even adults. The low feasibility of rat eradications on many islands makes the development of alternate control plans necessary. We used a combination of field experiments on a Mediterranean island invaded by black rats (Rattusrattus) to evaluate (1) the predation risk posed to different-sized seabird eggs and (2), the potential of two deterrent methods (electronic and chemical) to reduce its impact. Rats were able to consume eggs of all sizes (12 to 68 g), but survival increased 13 times from the smallest to the largest eggs (which also had more resistant eggshells). Extrapolation to seabird eggs suggests that the smallest species (Hydrobatespelagicus) suffer the most severe predation risk, but even the largest (Larusmichahellis) could suffer >60% mortality. Nest attack was not reduced by the deterrents. However, chemical deterrence (conditioned taste aversion by lithium chloride) slowed the increase in predation rate over time, which resulted in a three-fold increase in egg survival to predation as compared to both control and electronic deterrence. At the end of the experimental period, this effect was confirmed by a treatment swap, which showed that conferred protection remains at least 15 days after cessation of the treatment. Results indicate that small seabird species are likely to suffer severe rates of nest predation by rats and that conditioned taste aversion, but not electronic repellents, may represent a suitable method to protect colonies when eradication or control is not feasible or cost-effective.

  4. Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probablistic beliefs from loss-averse agents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Offerman, T.; Palley, A.B.

    2016-01-01

    Strictly proper scoring rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs from risk neutral agents. Previous experimental studies have identified two problems with this method: (i) risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports toward the probability of 1/2 , and (ii) for

  5. A Moist Crevice for Word Aversion: In Semantics Not Sounds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul H Thibodeau

    Full Text Available Why do people self-report an aversion to words like "moist"? The present studies represent an initial scientific exploration into the phenomenon of word aversion by investigating its prevalence and cause. Results of five experiments indicate that about 10-20% of the population is averse to the word "moist." This population often speculates that phonological properties of the word are the cause of their displeasure. However, data from the current studies point to semantic features of the word-namely, associations with disgusting bodily functions-as a more prominent source of peoples' unpleasant experience. "Moist," for averse participants, was notable for its valence and personal use, rather than imagery or arousal-a finding that was confirmed by an experiment designed to induce an aversion to the word. Analyses of individual difference measures suggest that word aversion is more prevalent among younger, more educated, and more neurotic people, and is more commonly reported by females than males.

  6. Loss aversion in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trémeau, Fabien; Brady, Melissa; Saccente, Erica; Moreno, Alexis; Epstein, Henry; Citrome, Leslie; Malaspina, Dolores; Javitt, Daniel

    2008-08-01

    Loss aversion in decision-making refers to a higher sensitivity to losses than to gains. Loss aversion is conceived as an affective interference in cognitive processes such as judgment and decision-making. Loss aversion in non-risky choices has not been studied in schizophrenia. Forty-two individuals with schizophrenia and 42 non-patient control subjects, matched by gender and age, were randomized to two different scenarios (a buying scenario and a selling scenario). Subjects were asked to evaluate the price of a decorated mug. Schizophrenia subjects were re-tested four weeks later with the other scenario. Contrary to non-patient controls, schizophrenia subjects did not show loss aversion. In the schizophrenia group, absence of loss aversion was correlated with age, duration of illness, number of months in State hospitals, and poorer performance in the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, but not with current psychopathology and two domains of emotional experience. Absence of loss aversion in schizophrenia represents a deficit in the processing of emotional information during decision-making. It can be interpreted as a lack of integration between the emotional and the cognitive systems, or to a more diffuse and de-differentiated impact of emotional information on decision-making. Future studies should bring more clarity to this question.

  7. Application of a general risk management model to portfolio optimization problems with elliptical distributed returns for risk neutral and risk averse decision makers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Kaynar; S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe discuss a class of risk measures for portfolio optimization with linear loss functions, where the random returns of financial instruments have a multivariate elliptical distribution. Under this setting we pay special attention to two risk measures, Value-at-Risk and

  8. Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Offerman, Theo; Palley, Asa B

    2016-01-01

    Strictly proper scoring rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs from risk neutral agents. Previous experimental studies have identified two problems with this method: (i) risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports toward the probability of [Formula: see text], and (ii) for moderate beliefs agents simply report [Formula: see text]. Applying a prospect theory model of risk preferences, we show that loss aversion can explain both of these behavioral phenomena. Using the insights of this model, we develop a simple off-the-shelf probability assessment mechanism that encourages loss-averse agents to report true beliefs. In an experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this modification in both eliminating uninformative reports and eliciting true probabilistic beliefs.

  9. Loss Aversion and Individual Characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjorth, Katrine; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2011-01-01

    Many studies have shown that loss aversion affects the valuation of non-market goods. Using stated choice data, this paper presents an empirical investigation of how individual-level loss aversion varies with observable personal characteristics and with the choice context. We investigate loss...... aversion with respect to travel time and money, and find significant loss aversion in both dimensions. The degree of loss aversion in the time dimension is larger than in the money dimension, and depends on age and education. Subjects tend to be more loss averse when the reference is well established....

  10. Probability Weighting and Loss Aversion in Futures Hedging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mattos, F.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2008-01-01

    We analyze how the introduction of probability weighting and loss aversion in a futures hedging model affects decision making. Analytical findings indicate that probability weighting alone always affects optimal hedge ratios, while loss and risk aversion only have an impact when probability

  11. Loss aversion and 5HTT gene variants in adolescent anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, Monique; Plate, Rista C; Carlisi, Christina O; Gorodetsky, Elena; Goldman, David; Pine, Daniel S

    2014-04-01

    Loss aversion, a well-documented behavioral phenomenon, characterizes decisions under risk in adult populations. As such, loss aversion may provide a reliable measure of risky behavior. Surprisingly, little is known about loss aversion in adolescents, a group who manifests risk-taking behavior, or in anxiety disorders, which are associated with risk-avoidance. Finally, loss aversion is expected to be modulated by genotype, particularly the serotonin transporter (SERT) gene variant, based on its role in anxiety and impulsivity. This genetic modulation may also differ between anxious and healthy adolescents, given their distinct propensities for risk taking. The present work examines the modulation of loss aversion, an index of risk-taking, and reaction-time to decision, an index of impulsivity, by the serotonin-transporter-gene-linked polymorphisms (5HTTLPR) in healthy and clinically anxious adolescents. Findings show that loss aversion (1) does manifest in adolescents, (2) does not differ between healthy and clinically anxious participants, and (3), when stratified by SERT genotype, identifies a subset of anxious adolescents who are high SERT-expressers, and show excessively low loss-aversion and high impulsivity. This last finding may serve as preliminary evidence for 5HTTLPR as a risk factor for the development of comorbid disorders associated with risk-taking and impulsivity in clinically anxious adolescents. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Loss aversion and 5HTT gene variants in adolescent anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monique Ernst

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Loss aversion, a well-documented behavioral phenomenon, characterizes decisions under risk in adult populations. As such, loss aversion may provide a reliable measure of risky behavior. Surprisingly, little is known about loss aversion in adolescents, a group who manifests risk-taking behavior, or in anxiety disorders, which are associated with risk-avoidance. Finally, loss aversion is expected to be modulated by genotype, particularly the serotonin transporter (SERT gene variant, based on its role in anxiety and impulsivity. This genetic modulation may also differ between anxious and healthy adolescents, given their distinct propensities for risk taking. The present work examines the modulation of loss aversion, an index of risk-taking, and reaction-time to decision, an index of impulsivity, by the serotonin-transporter-gene-linked polymorphisms (5HTTLPR in healthy and clinically anxious adolescents. Findings show that loss aversion (1 does manifest in adolescents, (2 does not differ between healthy and clinically anxious participants, and (3, when stratified by SERT genotype, identifies a subset of anxious adolescents who are high SERT-expressers, and show excessively low loss-aversion and high impulsivity. This last finding may serve as preliminary evidence for 5HTTLPR as a risk factor for the development of comorbid disorders associated with risk-taking and impulsivity in clinically anxious adolescents.

  13. Lossed in Translation: An Off-the-Shelf Method to Recover Probabilistic Beliefs from Loss-Averse Agents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Offerman, T.; Palley, A.

    2013-01-01

    Although strictly proper rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs, experimental results have shown that risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports towards the rule's baseline probability of 1/2, and a conservative preference for certain outcomes leads agents

  14. Memory modulation across neural systems: intra-amygdala glucose reverses deficits caused by intraseptal morphine on a spatial task but not on an aversive task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNay, E C; Gold, P E

    1998-05-15

    Based largely on dissociations of the effects of different lesions on learning and memory, memories for different attributes appear to be organized in independent neural systems. Results obtained with direct injections of drugs into one brain region at a time support a similar conclusion. The present experiments investigated the effects of simultaneous pharmacological manipulation of two neural systems, the amygdala and the septohippocampal system, to examine possible interactions of memory modulation across systems. Morphine injected into the medial septum impaired memory both for avoidance training and during spontaneous alternation. When glucose was concomitantly administered to the amygdala, glucose reversed the morphine-induced deficits in memory during alternation but not for avoidance training. These results suggest that the amygdala is involved in modulation of spatial memory processes and that direct injections of memory-modulating drugs into the amygdala do not always modulate memory for aversive events. These findings are contrary to predictions from the findings of lesion studies and of studies using direct injections of drugs into single brain areas. Thus, the independence of neural systems responsible for processing different classes of memory is less clear than implied by studies using lesions or injections of drugs into single brain areas.

  15. Acquisition and retrieval of conditioned taste aversion is impaired by brain damage caused by two hours of pilocarpine-induced status epilepticus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sroubek, J; Hort, J; Komárek, V; Langmeier, M; Brozek, G

    2001-01-01

    The effect of Cavalheiro's pilocarpine model of epileptogenesis upon conditioned taste aversion (CTA), an important example of nondeclarative memory, was studied in adult Long Evans rats. Deterioration of CTA was studied during the silent period between pilocarpine-induced status epilepticus (SE) and delayed spontaneous recurrent seizures. SE was elicited by i.p. injection of pilocarpine (320 mg/kg ) and interrupted after 2 hours by clonazepame (1 mg/kg i.p.). Peripheral cholinergic symptoms were suppressed by methylscopolamine (1 mg/kg i.p.), administered together with pilocarpine. CTA was formed against the salty taste of isotonic LiCl. In the experiment of CTA acquisition, the CTA was formed and tested during the silent period after SE. In the experiment of CTA retrieval, the CTA was acquired before SE and the retrieval itself was tested during the silent period. Retrieval of CTA acquired before SE was impaired more than the retrieval of CTA formed during the silent period. Our findings indicate that epileptic seizures can disrupt even non-declarative memory but that CTA formed by the damaged brain can use its better preserved parts for memory trace formation. Ketamine (50 mg/kg i.p.) applied 2 min after the onset of pilocarpine-induced status epilepticus protected memory deterioration.

  16. [Hepatitis caused by virus C. Risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garassini, M E; Pulgar, Y; Alvarado, M; Garassini, M A

    1995-01-01

    To establish the risk factors to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, we studied 120 patients divided in 2 groups: A first group of 40 patients with HCV infection, 24 (60%) with past medical history of blood transfusion, 14 (35%) of them also had hemodialysis and 3 Kidney transplant. 10 patients (25%) had mayor surgery without transfusion, 3 had frequent visits to the dentist and 3 month baby whose mother was HCV positive. In 4 patients we found no risk factors. A second group of 80 patients who visit our clinic for the first time, 2 were found positive for HCV (1.6%). 13 of them had blood transfusion, one was HCV+ (OR: 5.5, P = 0.73). 41 had history of mayor surgery, one HCV+ (OR: 0.95, P = 1.000). The risk factors related to HCV infection in our population were blood transfusion, hemodialysis and mayor surgery. The use of EV drugs, tatoos, sexual behavior, interfamiliar or vertical transmission were not risk factor in our population.

  17. Investigating the Effect of Consumer’s Risk Aversion and Product Involvement on their Brand Loyalty and Word of Mouth Behavior: The Mediating Role of Brand Attachment and Brand Trust

    OpenAIRE

    Manijeh Bahrainizadeh; Alireza Ziaei Bide

    2013-01-01

    In today’s highly competitive markets, brand loyalty is a central element of marketing strategies and tactics. Therefore, the sources of loyalty and the processes through which it is established is becoming central concern of marketers. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between the consumer’s risk aversion and product involvement with their brand loyalty and positive word of mouth behaviors and also to test empirically whether this relationship is mediated by brand trus...

  18. Interoceptive ability predicts aversion to losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Hartley, Catherine A; Hamilton, Jeffrey R; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2015-01-01

    Emotions have been proposed to inform risky decision-making through the influence of affective physiological responses on subjective value. The ability to perceive internal body states, or "interoception" may influence this relationship. Here, we examined whether interoception predicts participants' degree of loss aversion, which has been previously linked to choice-related arousal responses. Participants performed both a heartbeat-detection task indexing interoception and a risky monetary decision-making task, from which loss aversion, risk attitudes and choice consistency were parametrically measured. Interoceptive ability correlated selectively with loss aversion and was unrelated to the other value parameters. This finding suggests that specific and separable component processes underlying valuation are shaped not only by our physiological responses, as shown in previous findings, but also by our interoceptive access to such signals.

  19. Colour Separation and Aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah M Haigh

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Aversion to achromatic patterns is well documented but relatively little is known about discomfort from chromatic patterns. Large colour differences are uncommon in the natural environment and deviation from natural statistics makes images uncomfortable (Fernandez and Wilkins 2008, Perception, 37(7, 1098–113; Juricevic et al 2010, Perception, 39(7, 884–899. We report twelve studies documenting a linear increase in aversion to chromatic square-wave gratings as a function of the separation in UCS chromaticity between the component bars, independent of their luminance contrast. Two possible explanations for the aversion were investigated: (1 accommodative response, or (2 cortical metabolic demand. We found no correlation between chromaticity separation and accommodative lag or variance in lag, measured using an open-field autorefractor. However, near infrared spectroscopy of the occipital cortex revealed a larger oxyhaemoglobin response to patterns with large chromaticity separation. The aversion may be cortical in origin and does not appear to be due to accommodation.

  20. Inequity aversion revisted

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Y.; Onderstal, S.; Schram, A.

    2012-01-01

    We provide the first systematic study of the robustness of parameter estimates for the Fehr-Schmidt (1999) model of inequity aversion with respect to (i) the occurrence of efficiency concerns; (ii) the scale of payoffs; and (iii) the game used (i.e., cross-game consistency). Moreover, we provide

  1. Understanding Loan Aversion in Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Boatman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Although prior research has suggested that some students may be averse to taking out loans to finance their college education, there is little empirical evidence showing the extent to which loan aversion exists or how it affects different populations of students. This study provides the first large-scale quantitative evidence of levels of loan aversion in the United States. Using survey data collected on more than 6,000 individuals, we examine the frequency of loan aversion in three distinct populations. Depending on the measure, between 20 and 40% of high school seniors exhibit loan aversion with lower rates among community college students and adults not in college. Women are less likely to express loan-averse attitudes than men, and Hispanic respondents are more likely to be loan averse than White respondents.

  2. Coping with Loss Aversion in the Newsvendor Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianwu Sun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce loss aversion into the decision framework of the newsvendor model. By introducing the loss aversion coefficient λ, we propose a novel utility function for the loss-averse newsvendor. First, we obtain the optimal order quantity to maximize the expected utility for the loss-averse newsvendor who is risk-neutral. It is found that this optimal order quantity is smaller than the expected profit maximization order quantity in the classical newsvendor model, which may help to explain the decision bias in the classical newsvendor model. Then, to reduce the risk which originates from the fluctuation in the market demand, we achieve the optimal order quantity to maximize CVaR about utility for the loss-averse newsvendor who is risk-averse. We find that this optimal order quantity is smaller than the optimal order quantity to maximize the expected utility above and is decreasing in the confidence level α. Further, it is proved that the expected utility under this optimal order quantity is decreasing in the confidence level α, which verifies that low risk implies low return. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the obtained results and some management insights are suggested for the loss-averse newsvendor model.

  3. Enhanced striatal sensitivity to aversive reinforcement in adolescents versus adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galván, Adriana; McGlennen, Kristine M

    2013-02-01

    Neurodevelopmental changes in mesolimbic regions are associated with adolescent risk-taking behavior. Numerous studies have shown exaggerated activation in the striatum in adolescents compared with children and adults during reward processing. However, striatal sensitivity to aversion remains elusive. Given the important role of the striatum in tracking both appetitive and aversive events, addressing this question is critical to understanding adolescent decision-making, as both positive and negative factors contribute to this behavior. In this study, human adult and adolescent participants performed a task in which they received squirts of appetitive or aversive liquid while undergoing fMRI, a novel approach in human adolescents. Compared with adults, adolescents showed greater behavioral and striatal sensitivity to both appetitive and aversive stimuli, an effect that was exaggerated in response to delivery of the aversive stimulus. Collectively, these findings contribute to understanding how neural responses to positive and negative outcomes differ between adolescents and adults and how they may influence adolescent behavior.

  4. Further evidence for conditioned taste aversion induced by forced swimming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masaki, Takahisa; Nakajima, Sadahiko

    2005-01-31

    A series of experiments with rats reported that aversion to a taste solution can be established by forced swimming in a water pool. Experiment 1 demonstrated that correlation of taste and swimming is a critical factor for this phenomenon, indicating associative (i.e., Pavlovian) nature of this learning. Experiment 2 showed that this learning obeys the Pavlovian law of strength, by displaying a positive relationship between the duration of water immersion in training and the taste aversion observed in subsequent testing. Experiment 3 revealed that swimming rather than being wet is the critical agent, because a water shower did not endow rats with taste aversion. Experiment 4 found that taste aversion was a positive function of water level of the pools in training (0, 12 or 32 cm). These results, taken together, suggest that energy expenditure caused by physical exercise might be involved in the development of taste aversion.

  5. Amygdala damage eliminates monetary loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Martino, Benedetto; Camerer, Colin F; Adolphs, Ralph

    2010-02-23

    Losses are a possibility in many risky decisions, and organisms have evolved mechanisms to evaluate and avoid them. Laboratory and field evidence suggests that people often avoid risks with losses even when they might earn a substantially larger gain, a behavioral preference termed "loss aversion." The cautionary brake on behavior known to rely on the amygdala is a plausible candidate mechanism for loss aversion, yet evidence for this idea has so far not been found. We studied two rare individuals with focal bilateral amygdala lesions using a series of experimental economics tasks. To measure individual sensitivity to financial losses we asked participants to play a variety of monetary gambles with possible gains and losses. Although both participants retained a normal ability to respond to changes in the gambles' expected value and risk, they showed a dramatic reduction in loss aversion compared to matched controls. The findings suggest that the amygdala plays a key role in generating loss aversion by inhibiting actions with potentially deleterious outcomes.

  6. Do Different ADHD-Related Etiological Risks Involve Specific Neuropsychological Pathways? An Analysis of Mediation Processes by Inhibitory Control and Delay Aversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauli-Pott, Ursula; Dalir, Silke; Mingebach, Tanja; Roller, Alisa; Becker, Katja

    2013-01-01

    Background: Inhibitory control (IC) has been regarded as a neuropsychological basic deficit and as an endophenotype of attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Implicated here are mediation processes between etiological factors and ADHD symptoms. We thus analyze whether and to what extent executive IC and delay aversion (DA; i.e.,…

  7. Risk factors and antibiogram of organisms causing puerperal sepsis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Puerperal sepsis is a common pregnancy related complication and is one of the leading causes of maternal morbidity and mortality in Sub Saharan Africa. There is paucity of regional data on the antibiogram and risk factors associated with this condition, Aim: To determine the risk factors, aetiological organisms ...

  8. Risk aversion and social networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kovářík, Jaromír; van der Leij, M. J.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 2 (2014), s. 121-155 ISSN 2194-5993 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-22044S Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : clustering coefficient * degree distribution * local/global search Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.447, year: 2014

  9. Loss Aversion Reflects Information Accumulation, Not Bias: A Drift-Diffusion Model Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clay, Summer N; Clithero, John A; Harris, Alison M; Reed, Catherine L

    2017-01-01

    Defined as increased sensitivity to losses, loss aversion is often conceptualized as a cognitive bias. However, findings that loss aversion has an attentional or emotional regulation component suggest that it may instead reflect differences in information processing. To distinguish these alternatives, we applied the drift-diffusion model (DDM) to choice and response time (RT) data in a card gambling task with unknown risk distributions. Loss aversion was measured separately for each participant. Dividing the participants into terciles based on loss aversion estimates, we found that the most loss-averse group showed a significantly lower drift rate than the other two groups, indicating overall slower uptake of information. In contrast, neither the starting bias nor the threshold separation (barrier) varied by group, suggesting that decision thresholds are not affected by loss aversion. These results shed new light on the cognitive mechanisms underlying loss aversion, consistent with an account based on information accumulation.

  10. Loss-Averse Retailer’s Optimal Ordering Policies for Perishable Products with Customer Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the loss-averse retailer’s ordering policies for perishable product with customer returns. With the introduction of the segmental loss utility function, we depict the retailer’s loss aversion decision bias and establish the loss-averse retailer’s ordering policy model. We derive that the loss-averse retailer’s optimal order quantity with customer returns exists and is unique. By comparison, we obtain that both the risk-neutral and the loss-averse retailer’s optimal order quantities depend on the inventory holding cost and the marginal shortage cost. Through the sensitivity analysis, we also discuss the effect of loss-averse coefficient and the ratio of return on the loss-averse retailer’s optimal order quantity with customer returns.

  11. Loss Aversion Reflects Information Accumulation, Not Bias: A Drift-Diffusion Model Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Summer N. Clay

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Defined as increased sensitivity to losses, loss aversion is often conceptualized as a cognitive bias. However, findings that loss aversion has an attentional or emotional regulation component suggest that it may instead reflect differences in information processing. To distinguish these alternatives, we applied the drift-diffusion model (DDM to choice and response time (RT data in a card gambling task with unknown risk distributions. Loss aversion was measured separately for each participant. Dividing the participants into terciles based on loss aversion estimates, we found that the most loss-averse group showed a significantly lower drift rate than the other two groups, indicating overall slower uptake of information. In contrast, neither the starting bias nor the threshold separation (barrier varied by group, suggesting that decision thresholds are not affected by loss aversion. These results shed new light on the cognitive mechanisms underlying loss aversion, consistent with an account based on information accumulation.

  12. Deciding for Others Reduces Loss Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    We study risk taking on behalf of others, both when choices involve losses and when they do not. A large-scale incentivized experiment with subjects randomly drawn from the Danish population is conducted. We find that deciding for others reduces loss aversion. When choosing between risky prospects...... when losses loom. This finding is consistent with an interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision making driven by emotions and that these emotions are reduced when making decisions for others....... for which losses are ruled out by design, subjects make the same choices for themselves as for others. In contrast, when losses are possible, we find that the two types of choices differ. In particular, we find that subjects who make choices for themselves take less risk than those who decide for others...

  13. On Loss Aversion, Level-1 Reasoning, and Betting

    OpenAIRE

    Ido Erev; Sharon Gilat-Yihyie; Davide Marchiori; Doron Sonsino

    2013-01-01

    Previous research suggests that human reaction to risky opportunities reflects two contradicting biases: Òloss aversion", and Òlimited level of reasoning" that leads to overconfidence. Rejection of attractive gambles is explained by loss aversion, while counterproductive risk seeking is attributed to limited level of reasoning. The current research highlights a shortcoming of this popular (but often implicit) "contradicting biases" assertion. Studies of "negative-sum betting games" reveal hig...

  14. Good luck, bad luck, and ambiguity aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Briony D. Pulford; Poonam Gill

    2014-01-01

    We report a series of experiments investigating the influence of feeling lucky or unlucky on people's choice of known-risk or ambiguous options using the traditional Ellsberg Urns decision-making task. We induced a state of feeling lucky or unlucky in subjects by using a rigged wheel-of-fortune game, which just missed either the bankrupt or the jackpot outcome. In the first experiment a large reversal of the usual ambiguity aversion effect was shown, indicating that feeling ...

  15. The ontogeny of ethanol aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saalfield, Jessica; Spear, Linda

    2016-03-15

    Recent work has suggested separate developmental periods within the broader framework of adolescence, with data suggesting distinct alterations and vulnerabilities within these intervals. While previous research has suggested reduced sensitivity to the aversive effects of alcohol in adolescence relative to adults, a more detailed ontogeny of this effect has yet to be conducted. The adolescent brain undergoes significant transitions throughout adolescence, including in regions linked with drug reward and aversion. The current study aimed to determine the ontogeny of ethanol aversion by utilizing a conditioned taste aversion procedure at six different ages to test the hypothesis that the transitions into, through, and out of adolescence are associated with ontogenetic alterations in sensitivity to the aversive properties of ethanol. Non-deprived animals given Boost® as the conditioned stimulus (CS) were used in Experiment 1, whereas Experiment 2 used water-restricted animals provided with a saccharin/sucrose solution as the CS. In both experiments, an attenuated sensitivity to the aversive properties of ethanol was evident in adolescents compared to adults, although more age differences were apparent in water deprived animals than when a highly palatable CS was given to ad libitum animals. Overall, the data suggest an attenuated sensitivity to the aversive properties of ethanol that is most pronounced during pre- and early adolescence, declining thereafter to reach the enhanced aversive sensitivity of adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Statistical aspects and risks of human-caused earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, C. D.

    2013-12-01

    The seismological community invests ample human capital and financial resources to research and predict risks associated with earthquakes. Industries such as the insurance and re-insurance sector are equally interested in using probabilistic risk models developed by the scientific community to transfer risks. These models are used to predict expected losses due to naturally occurring earthquakes. But what about the risks associated with human-caused earthquakes? Such risk models are largely absent from both industry and academic discourse. In countries around the world, informed citizens are becoming increasingly aware and concerned that this economic bias is not sustainable for long-term economic growth, environmental and human security. Ultimately, citizens look to their government officials to hold industry accountable. In the Netherlands, for example, the hydrocarbon industry is held accountable for causing earthquakes near Groningen. In Switzerland, geothermal power plants were shut down or suspended because they caused earthquakes in canton Basel and St. Gallen. The public and the private non-extractive industry needs access to information about earthquake risks in connection with sub/urban geoengineeing activities, including natural gas production through fracking, geothermal energy production, carbon sequestration, mining and water irrigation. This presentation illuminates statistical aspects of human-caused earthquakes with respect to different geologic environments. Statistical findings are based on the first catalog of human-caused earthquakes (in Klose 2013). Findings are discussed which include the odds to die during a medium-size earthquake that is set off by geomechanical pollution. Any kind of geoengineering activity causes this type of pollution and increases the likelihood of triggering nearby faults to rupture.

  17. Repeatable aversion across threat types is linked with life-history traits but is dependent on how aversion is measured.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Gabrielle L; Reichert, Michael S; Crane, Jodie M S; O'Shea, William; Quinn, John L

    2018-02-01

    Personality research suggests that individual differences in risk aversion may be explained by links with life-history variation. However, few empirical studies examine whether repeatable differences in risk avoidance behaviour covary with life-history traits among individuals in natural populations, or how these links vary depending on the context and the way risk aversion is measured. We measured two different risk avoidance behaviours (latency to enter the nest and inspection time) in wild great tits ( Parus major ) in two different contexts-response to a novel object and to a predator cue placed at the nest-box during incubation---and related these behaviours to female reproductive success and condition. Females responded equally strongly to both stimuli, and although both behaviours were repeatable, they did not correlate. Latency to enter was negatively related to body condition and the number of offspring fledged. By contrast, inspection time was directly explained by whether incubating females had been flushed from the nest before the trial began. Thus, our inferences on the relationship between risk aversion and fitness depend on how risk aversion was measured. Our results highlight the limitations of drawing conclusions about the relevance of single measures of a personality trait such as risk aversion.

  18. Combined Effects of Glucocorticoid and Noradrenergic Activity on Loss Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margittai, Zsofia; Nave, Gideon; Van Wingerden, Marijn; Schnitzler, Alfons; Schwabe, Lars; Kalenscher, Tobias

    2018-01-01

    Loss aversion is a well-known behavioral regularity in financial decision making, describing humans' tendency to overweigh losses compared to gains of the same amount. Recent research indicates that stress and associated hormonal changes affect loss aversion, yet the underlying neuroendocrine mechanisms are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated the causal influence of two major stress neuromodulators, cortisol and noradrenaline, on loss aversion during financial decision making. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled between-subject design, we orally administered either the α2-adrenergic antagonist yohimbine (increasing noradrenergic stimulation), hydrocortisone, both substances, or a placebo to healthy young men. We tested the treatments' influence on a financial decision-making task measuring loss aversion and risk attitude. We found that both drugs combined, relative to either drug by itself, reduced loss aversion in the absence of an effect on risk attitude or choice consistency. Our data suggest that concurrent glucocorticoid and noradrenergic activity prompts an alignment of reward- with loss-sensitivity, and thus diminishes loss aversion. Our results have implications for the understanding of the susceptibility to biases in decision making.

  19. Dynamical tendencies of health consequences caused by competitive risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Pronina, I.A.; Kudriavtsev, G.I.

    2000-01-01

    The paper deals with the generalized probabilistic approach for analyzing health consequences caused by various exposure factors. Formally basing on the competitive risk theory, it is introduced a general risk model for analysis the influence of environmental risk factors to human health. The usefulness of the model approach is in the opportunity of taking into account: time delay of impact and consequence manifestation; easy comparisons of exposure factors with different nature and various consequences (morbidity and mortality, carcinogenic and genetic); social and environmental components in overall mortality. Preliminary examples of comparative risk analysis are demonstrated on the Russian demography and environmental data with the attempt of characterizing the dynamical tendencies and evolution of introduced risk index. The prospects of the probabilistic approach and the results obtaining on this basis are discussed. (author)

  20. Ionizing radiation causing a risk of cancer in man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fichardt, T.; Sandison, A.G.; Savage, D.J.

    1977-01-01

    An attempt has been made to present, in short review, the most important carcinogens that have been implicated in the development of cancer in the various organ sites of the human body and to demonstrate the relatively minor role played by ionizing radiation, especially radiotherapy, in causing a risk of cancer in man

  1. Behavioural feedback to risk variation ensues from unsatisfied appetency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussault, C

    1996-07-01

    For a long time, but particularly since the last two decades, the phenomenon of behavioural feedback to risk variation, especially to highway safety measures, has been the subject of numerous papers and debates. It has been advanced that human behaviour ensues from the interaction between two motivational systems: (1) appetency, governed by a homeostasic mechanism, wherein the individual seeks to satisfy needs, and (2) aversion, guided by the principle of zero aversion, whereby the individual seeks to avoid aversive stimuli. When an individual considers the possibility of undertaking an action, he weighs the advantages (appetency) and the disavantages (aversion). If the appetency proves to be stronger than the aversion, the action is completed and ipso facto, the individual accepts the risk associated with it. In this article, it is suggested that the behavioural feedback following a variation in the risk (aversion) ensues from unsatisfied appetency. If the unsatisfied appetency is nil (the individual is already satisfied), a drop in the aversive constraint (e.g. lowered risk of an accident) will not cause any behavioural feedback. On the other hand, if there is an unsatisfied appetency (the individual is not fully satisfied), a drop in the aversive constraint will bring about behavioural feedback in proportion to the level of unsatisfied appetency. Cases in which behavioural feedback is likely to arise and the implications for public policy-making are briefly discussed.

  2. Different components of conditioned food aversion memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikitin, Vladimir P; Solntseva, Svetlana V; Kozyrev, Sergey A; Nikitin, Pavel V; Shevelkin, Alexey V

    2016-07-01

    Memory reconsolidation processes and protein kinase Mzeta (PKMzeta) activity in memory maintenance and reorganization are poorly understood. Therefore, we examined memory reconsolidation and PKMzeta activity during the maintenance and reorganization of a conditioned food aversion memory among snails. These processes were specifically evaluated after administration of a serotonin receptor antagonist (methiothepin), NMDA glutamate receptor antagonist (MK-801), protein synthesis inhibitor (cycloheximide; CYH), or PKMzeta inhibitor (zeta inhibitory peptide; ZIP) either 2 or 10 days after aversion training. Two days post-training, injections of MK-801 or CYH, combined with a conditioned stimulus reminder, caused amnesia development, and a second training 11 days after this induction did not lead to long-term memory formation. Interestingly, MK-801 or CYH injections and the reminder 10 days after training did not affect memory retrieval. Methiothepin and the reminder, or ZIP without the reminder, at 2 and 10 days after training led to memory impairment, while a second training 11 days after amnesia induction resulted in memory formation. These results suggest that the maintenance of a conditioned food aversion involves two different components with variable dynamics. One component could be characterized by memory strengthening over time and involve N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors and protein synthesis reconsolidation at early, but not late, training stages. The other memory component could involve serotonin-dependent reconsolidation and Mzeta-like kinase activity at both early and late stages after learning. Deficiencies within these two components led to various forms of memory impairment, which differed in terms of the formation of a conditioned food aversion during the second training. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Challenges to communicate risks of human-caused earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    The awareness of natural hazards has been up-trending in recent years. In particular, this is true for earthquakes, which increase in frequency and magnitude in regions that normally do not experience seismic activity. In fact, one of the major concerns for many communities and businesses is that humans today seem to cause earthquakes due to large-scale shale gas production, dewatering and flooding of mines and deep geothermal power production. Accordingly, without opposing any of these technologies it should be a priority of earth scientists who are researching natural hazards to communicate earthquake risks. This presentation discusses the challenges that earth scientists are facing to properly communicate earthquake risks, in light of the fact that human-caused earthquakes are an environmental change affecting only some communities and businesses. Communication channels may range from research papers, books and class room lectures to outreach events and programs, popular media events or even social media networks.

  4. Development of fire risk assessment method caused by earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitomo, Nobuo; Matsukura, Hiroshi; Matsuoka, Takeshi; Suzuki, Kazutaka

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to establish the assessment method of the risk of the multiple fires caused by earthquake, in the framework of PSA. In order to establish this method, we have settled four tasks and started a five years research project in 1999 for five years. These results will be useful for not only nuclear power plants but also chemical plants, traffic systems etc. (author)

  5. Playing it safe but losing anyway-Serotonergic signaling of negative outcomes in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex in the context of risk-aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Macoveanu, Julian; Rowe, James B; Hornboll, Bettina

    2013-01-01

    and the response to a negative outcome. Using pharmacological fMRI, we manipulated the availability of serotonin in healthy volunteers while performing a gambling task. The same group of participants was studied in three fMRI sessions: (i) during intravenous administration of the SSRI citalopram to increase...... and citalopram decreased the neural response to negative outcomes in dmPFC. Conversely, ATD decreased and citalopram increased the neural response to negative outcomes in left amygdala. Critically, these pharmacological effects were restricted to negative outcomes that were caused by low-risk decisions and led...

  6. Conditioned taste aversion, drugs of abuse and palatability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jian-You; Arthurs, Joe; Reilly, Steve

    2014-09-01

    We consider conditioned taste aversion to involve a learned reduction in the palatability of a taste (and hence in amount consumed) based on the association that develops when a taste experience is followed by gastrointestinal malaise. The present article evaluates the well-established finding that drugs of abuse, at doses that are otherwise considered rewarding and self-administered, cause intake suppression. Our recent work using lick pattern analysis shows that drugs of abuse also cause a palatability downshift and, therefore, support conditioned taste aversion learning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Deciding for Others Reduces Loss Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    We study risk taking on behalf of others, both with and without potential losses. A large-scale incentivized experiment is conducted with subjects randomly drawn from the Danish population. On average, decision makers take the same risks for other people as for themselves when losses are excluded....... In contrast, when losses are possible, decisions on behalf of others are more risky. Using structural estimation, we show that this increase in risk stems from a decrease in loss aversion when others are affected by their choices.......We study risk taking on behalf of others, both with and without potential losses. A large-scale incentivized experiment is conducted with subjects randomly drawn from the Danish population. On average, decision makers take the same risks for other people as for themselves when losses are excluded...

  8. Risk factors which cause senile cataract evolvement: outline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.V. Bragin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Examination of natural ageing processes including those caused by multiple external factors has been attracting re-searchers' attention over the last years. Senile cataract is a multi-factor disease. Expenditure on cataract surgery remain one of the greatest expenses items in public health care. Age is a basic factor which causes senile cataract. Morbidity with cataract doubles each 10 years of life. This outline considers some literature sources which describe research results on influence exerted on cataract evolvement by such risk factors as age, sex, race, smoking, alcohol intake, pancreatic diabetes, intake of certain medications, a number of environmental factors including ultraviolet and ionizing radiation. mane of these factors are shown to increase or reduce senile cataract risk; there are conflicting data on certain factors. The outline also contains quantitative characteristics of cataract risks which are given via odds relation and evolve due to age parameters impacts, alcohol intake, ionizing radiation, etc. The authors also state that still there is no answer to the question whether dose-effect relationship for cataract evolvement is a threshold or non-threshold.

  9. Risk factors and causes of sudden noncardiac death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risgaard, Bjarke; Lynge, Thomas Hadberg; Wissenberg, Mads

    2015-01-01

    was to report the risk factors and causes of SNCD. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, nationwide study including all deaths between 2000 and 2006 of individuals aged 1-35 years and all deaths between 2007 and 2009 of individuals aged 1-49 years. Two physicians identified all sudden death cases through.......3-2.3; OR 3.0, 95% CI 2.0-4.4; and OR 4.3, 95% CI 2.5-7.4, respectively). The most common cause of SNCD was pulmonary disease (n = 115 [40%]). CONCLUSION: Sudden death among individuals aged caused by noncardiac diseases in 28% of cases. Risk factors were female sex, age, and the absence......BACKGROUND: On the performance of an autopsy, sudden deaths may be divided into 2 classifications: (1) sudden cardiac deaths and (2) sudden noncardiac deaths (SNCDs). Families of SNCD victims should not be followed up as a means of searching for cardiac disease. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study...

  10. Are ambiguity aversion and ambiguity intolerance identical? A neuroeconomics investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Yusuke; Fujino, Junya; Ideno, Takashi; Okubo, Shigetaka; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Miyata, Jun; Kawada, Ryosaku; Fujimoto, Shinsuke; Kubota, Manabu; Sasamoto, Akihiko; Hirose, Kimito; Takeuchi, Hideaki; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, there has been growing interest in understanding a person's reaction to ambiguous situations, and two similar constructs related to ambiguity, "ambiguity aversion" and "ambiguity intolerance," are defined in different disciplines. In the field of economic decision-making research, "ambiguity aversion" represents a preference for known risks relative to unknown risks. On the other hand, in clinical psychology, "ambiguity intolerance" describes the tendency to perceive ambiguous situations as undesirable. However, it remains unclear whether these two notions derived from different disciplines are identical or not. To clarify this issue, we combined an economic task, psychological questionnaires, and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) of structural brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a sample of healthy volunteers. The individual ambiguity aversion tendency parameter, as measured by our economic task, was negatively correlated with agreeableness scores on the self-reported version of the Revised NEO Personality Inventory. However, it was not correlated with scores of discomfort with ambiguity, one of the subscales of the Need for Closure Scale. Furthermore, the ambiguity aversion tendency parameter was negatively correlated with gray matter (GM) volume of areas in the lateral prefrontal cortex and parietal cortex, whereas ambiguity intolerance was not correlated with GM volume in any region. Our results suggest that ambiguity aversion, described in decision theory, may not necessarily be identical to ambiguity intolerance, referred to in clinical psychology. Cautious applications of decision theory to clinical neuropsychiatry are recommended.

  11. Lateral, Not Medial, Prefrontal Cortex Contributes to Punishment and Aversive Instrumental Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jean-Richard-dit-Bressel , Philip; McNally, Gavan P.

    2016-01-01

    Aversive outcomes punish behaviors that cause their occurrence. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) has been implicated in punishment learning and behavior, although the exact roles for different PFC regions in instrumental aversive learning and decision-making remain poorly understood. Here, we assessed the role of the orbitofrontal (OFC), rostral…

  12. Pneumoperitoneum after virtual colonoscopy: causes, risk factors, and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baccaro, Leopoldo M; Markelov, Alexey; Wilhelm, Jakub; Bloch, Robert

    2014-06-01

    Computed tomographic virtual colonoscopy (CTVC) is a safe and minimally invasive modality when compared with fiberoptic colonoscopy for evaluating the colon and rectum. We have reviewed the risks for colonic perforation by investigating the relevant literature. The objectives of this study were to assess the risk of colonic perforation during CTVC, describe risk factors, evaluate ways to reduce the incidence complications, and to review management and treatment options. A formal search of indexed publications was performed through PubMed. Search queries using keywords "CT colonography," "CT virtual colonoscopy," "virtual colonoscopy," and "perforation" yielded a total of 133 articles. A total of eight case reports and four review articles were selected. Combining case reports and review articles, a total of 25 cases of colonic perforation after CTVC have been reported. Causes include, but are not limited to, diverticular disease, irritable bowel diseases, obstructive processes, malignancies, and iatrogenic injury. Both operative and nonoperative management has been described. Nonoperative management has been proven safe and successful in minimally symptomatic and stable patients. Colonic perforation after CTVC is a rare complication and very few cases have been reported. Several risk factors are recurrent in the literature and must be acknowledged at the time of the study. Management options vary and should be tailored to each individual patient.

  13. A pilot study of loss aversion for drug and non-drug commodities in cocaine users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strickland, Justin C; Beckmann, Joshua S; Rush, Craig R; Stoops, William W

    2017-11-01

    Numerous studies in behavioral economics have demonstrated that individuals are more sensitive to the prospect of a loss than a gain (i.e., loss aversion). Although loss aversion has been well described in "healthy" populations, little research exists in individuals with substance use disorders. This gap is notable considering the prominent role that choice and decision-making play in drug use. The purpose of this pilot study was to evaluate loss aversion in active cocaine users. Current cocaine users (N=38; 42% female) participated in this within-subjects laboratory pilot study. Subjects completed a battery of tasks designed to assess loss aversion for drug and non-drug commodities under varying risk conditions. Standardized loss aversion coefficients (λ) were compared to theoretically and empirically relevant normative values (i.e., λ=2). Compared to normative loss aversion coefficient values, a precise and consistent decrease in loss aversion was observed in cocaine users (sample λ≈1). These values were observed across drug and non-drug commodities as well as under certain and risky conditions. These data represent the first systematic study of loss aversion in cocaine-using populations and provide evidence for equal sensitivity to losses and gains or loss equivalence. Futures studies should evaluate the specificity of these effects to a history of cocaine use as well as the impact of manipulations of loss aversion on drug use to determine how this phenomenon may contribute to intervention development efforts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Coordination of a Random Yield Supply Chain with a Loss-Averse Supplier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiarong Luo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the coordination of a supply chain consisting of a loss-averse supplier and a risk-neutral buyer who orders products from the supplier who suffers from random yield to meet a deterministic demand. We derive the risk-neutral buyer’s optimal order policy and the loss-averse supplier’s optimal production policy under shortage-penalty-surplus-subsidy (SPSS contracts. We also analyze the impacts of loss aversion on the loss-averse supplier’s production decision making and find that the loss-averse supplier may produce less than, equal to, or more than the risk-neutral supplier. Then, we provide explicit conditions on which the random yield supply chain with a loss-averse supplier can be coordinated under SPSS contracts. Finally, adopting numerical examples, we find that when the shortage penalty is low, the buyer’s optimal order quantity will increase, while the supplier’s optimal production quantity will first decrease and then increase as the loss aversion level increases. When the shortage penalty is high, the buyer’s optimal order quantity will decrease but the supplier’s optimal production quantity will always increase as the loss aversion level increases. Furthermore, the numerical examples provide strong evidence for the view that SPSS contracts can effectively improve the performance of the whole supply chain.

  15. [Public health risk caused by emissions from refuse incinerators].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wassermann, O; Kruse, H

    1995-01-01

    An irresponsible "approval on request" in favour of waste incineration written by a consulting committee of the German Federal Board of Physicians has meanwhile been widely distributed both nationally and internationally. The aim of this politically motivated paper is to dramatically increase the present number of 49 waste incinerators in Germany. It is our duty to warn of this intention. Health problems are known to exist both in workers at waste incinerators and in humans living in their vicinity. Furthermore, in the long run negative impact also to ecosystems should be expected from the emissions. Health problems in patients living downwind of waste incinerators repeatedly have been reported on by physicians. "Lack of statistical significance", often used as counter-argument, is only due to absence of funding of comprehensive epidemiological studies in Germany. Analyses of soil samples reveal the pollution from waste incineration. Considering the pre-load of the region, additional emissions caused by waste incineration and other sources have to be assessed. The application of preventive limit values is imperative. The presently used "limit values", being about 100 times too high, bear an unacceptable risk. Therefore, reliable regional registers of emissions have to be established immediately. Limit values continuously have to be adjusted to the progress of scientific knowledge. In this respect it is imperative to consider that the actual composition of emissions is unknown; isolated risk assessment of single compounds underestimates the total risk; the negative impact, e.g. of dioxins, on both the immune and hormone systems occurs at concentrations 100 times lower than those causing carcinogenic effects; the assumption of "threshold values" is obsolete; a considerable lack of knowledge exists about accumulation in food webs and in ecosystems; the demand of preservation of natural, geogenic situations is indispensable in assessments of soil and water pollution

  16. All-Cause and Cause-Specific Risk of Emergency Transport Attributable to Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Although several studies have estimated the associations between mortality or morbidity and extreme temperatures in terms of relative risk, few studies have investigated the risk of emergency transport attributable to the whole temperature range nationwide. We acquired data on daily emergency ambulance dispatches in all 47 prefectures of Japan from 2007 to 2010. We examined the relationship between emergency transport and temperature for each prefecture using a Poisson regression model in a distributed lag nonlinear model with adjustment for time trends. A random-effect multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the estimates at the national level. Attributable morbidity was calculated for high and low temperatures, which were defined as those above or below the optimum temperature (ie, the minimum morbidity temperature) and for moderate and also extreme temperatures, which were defined using cutoffs at the 2.5th and 97.5th temperature percentiles. A total of 15,868,086 cases of emergency transport met the inclusion criteria. The emergency transport was attributable to nonoptimal temperature. The median minimum morbidity percentile was in the 79th percentile for all causes, the 96th percentile for cardiovascular disease, and the 92th percentile for respiratory disease. The fraction attributable to low temperature was 6.94% (95% eCI: 5.93–7.70) for all causes, 17.93% (95% eCI: 16.10–19.25) for cardiovascular disease, and 12.19% (95% eCI: 9.90–13.66) for respiratory disease, whereas the fraction attributable to high temperature was small (all causes = 1.01%, 95% eCI: 0.90–1.11; cardiovascular disease = 0.10%, 95% eCI: 0.04–0.14; respiratory disease = 0.29%, 95% eCI: 0.07–0.50). The all-cause morbidity risk that was attributable to temperature was related to moderate cold, with an overall estimate of 6.41% (95% eCI: 5.47–7.20). Extreme temperatures were responsible for a small fraction, which corresponded to 0.57% (95% e

  17. On Loss Aversion, Level-1 Reasoning, and Betting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erev, Ido; Gilat-Yihyie, Sharon; Marchiori, Davide

    2014-01-01

    Previous research suggests that human reaction to risky opportunities reflects two contradicting biases: “loss aversion”, and “limited level of reasoning” that leads to overconfidence. Rejection of attractive gambles is explained by loss aversion, while counterproductive risk seeking is attributed...... to limited level of reasoning. The current research highlights a shortcoming of this popular (but often implicit) “contradicting biases” assertion. Studies of “negative-sum betting games” reveal high rate of counterproductive betting even when limited level of reasoning and loss aversion imply no betting...

  18. Optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Berkelaar (Arjan); R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractProspect theory and loss aversion play a dominant role in behavioral finance. In this paper we derive closed-form solutions for optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion. When confronted with gains a loss averse investor behaves similar to a portfolio insurer. When confronted with

  19. Aversive racism in Spain: testing the theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wojcieszak, M.

    2015-01-01

    This study applies the aversive racism framework to Spain and tests whether aversive racism depends on intergroup contact. Relying on a 3 (qualifications) by 3 (ethnicity) experiment, this study finds that aversive racism is especially pronounced against the Mexican job applicant, and emerges among

  20. Are the cause(s) responsible for urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk rooted in families or individuals?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2006-01-01

    Many studies have identified urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk. Hypothetical underlying cause(s) may include toxic exposures, diet, infections, and selective migration. The authors investigated whether the underlying cause(s) responsible for the urban-rural differences were rooted...... evaluated whether the nearest older sibling's place of birth had an independent effect on schizophrenia risk. If the cause(s) responsible for the urban-rural differences are rooted in individuals only, the nearest older sibling's place of birth should have no independent effect. In this analysis....... Some of the cause(s) responsible for the urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk are rooted in families, but some might also be rooted in individuals....

  1. Ambiguity aversion in rhesus macaques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin eHayden

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available People generally prefer risky options, which have fully specified outcome probabilities, to ambiguous options, which have unspecified probabilities. This preference, formalized in economics, is strong enough that people will reliably prefer a risky option to an ambiguous option with a greater expected value. Explanations for ambiguity aversion often invoke uniquely human faculties like language, self-justification, or a desire to avoid public embarrassment. Challenging these ideas, here we demonstrate that a preference for unambiguous options is shared with rhesus macaques. We trained four monkeys to choose between pairs of options that both offered explicitly cued probabilities of large and small juice outcomes. We then introduced occasional trials where one of the options was obscured and examined their resulting preferences; we ran humans in a parallel experiment on a nearly identical task. We found that monkeys reliably preferred risky options to ambiguous ones, even when this bias was costly, closely matching the behavior of humans in the analogous task. Notably, ambiguity aversion varied parametrically with the extent of ambiguity. As expected, ambiguity aversion gradually declined as monkeys learned the underlying probability distribution of rewards. These data indicate that ambiguity aversion reflects fundamental cognitive biases shared with other animals rather than uniquely human factors guiding decisions.

  2. Ambiguity aversion is not universal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kocher, M.G.; Lahno, Amrei; Trautmann, Stefan

    Assuming universal ambiguity aversion, an extensive theoretical literature studies how ambiguity can account for market anomalies from the perspective of expected utility-based theories. We provide a systematic experimental assessment of ambiguity attitudes in different likelihood ranges, and in the

  3. Aversive Stimulation -- Criteria for Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Patrick A.; Ohlson, Glenn A.

    Criteria for applying aversive stimulation with severely handicapped children are examined, and practical and ethical issues are considered. Factors seen to influence punishment outcomes include timing, intensity, and schedule of reinforcement. Suggested is the need for further research on the comparative effectiveness of positive and negative…

  4. Size doesn't really matter: ambiguity aversion in Ellsberg urns with few balls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulford, Briony D; Colman, Andrew M

    2008-01-01

    When attempting to draw a ball of a specified color either from an urn containing 50 red balls and 50 black balls or from an urn containing an unknown ratio of 100 red and black balls, a majority of decision makers prefer the known-risk urn, and this ambiguity aversion effect violates expected utility theory. In an experimental investigation of the effect of urn size on ambiguity aversion, 149 participants showed similar levels of aversion when choosing from urns containing 2, 10, or 100 balls. The occurrence of a substantial and significant ambiguity aversion effect even in the smallest urn suggests that influential theoretical interpretations of ambiguity aversion may need to be reconsidered.

  5. Eliciting and Measuring Betrayal Aversion using the BDM Mechanism*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quercia, Simone

    2016-01-01

    Betrayal aversion has been operationalized as the evidence that subjects demand a higher risk premium to take social risks compared to natural risks. This evidence has been first shown by Bohnet and Zeckhauser (2004) using an adaptation of the Becker – DeGroot – Marschak mechanism (BDM, Becker et al. (1964)). We compare their implementation of the BDM mechanism with a new version designed to facilitate subjects’ comprehension. We find that, although the two versions produce different distributions of values, the size of betrayal aversion, measured as an average treatment difference between social and natural risk settings, is not different across the two versions. We further show that our implementation is preferable to use in practice as it reduces substantially subjects’ mistakes and the likelihood of noisy valuations. PMID:27366658

  6. How Much Is that Exam Grade Really Worth? An Estimation of Student Risk Aversion to Their Unknown Final College Course Grades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nalley, Lanier; McKenzie, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    This study created an experimental design with which students can empirically assess their risk behavior with respect to exam grades within an expected utility framework. Specifically, the authors analyzed students' risk preferences associated with taking exams and earning a "risky" unknown grade versus not taking exams and instead…

  7. Risk, Uncertainty, and Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

    2016-01-01

    21288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler. Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss...... aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique...... feature of entrepreneurs: their willingness to risk losses....

  8. Risk, Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

    . Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore...... entrepreneurs to managers – a suitable comparison group – and employees (n = 2288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler...... suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique feature of entrepreneurs; their willingness to risk losses....

  9. Attenuation of radiation- and drug-induced conditioned taste aversions following area postrema lesions in the rat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabin, B.M.; Hunt, W.A.; Lee, J.

    1983-01-01

    The effects of lesions of the area postrema on the acquisition of radiation- and drug-induced (histamine and lithium chloride) conditioned taste aversions were investigated. The results indicated that area postrema lesions caused a significant attenuation of the aversion produced by pairing a novel sucrose solution with radiation (100 rad) or drug injection. Further, the area postrema lesions produced a similar level of attenuation of the taste aversion in all three treatment conditions. The results are discussed in terms of the implications of this finding for defining the mechanisms by which exposure to ionizing radiation can lead to the acquisition of a conditioned taste aversion

  10. Motivated attention and family risk for depression: Neuronal generator patterns at scalp elicited by lateralized aversive pictures reveal blunted emotional responsivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayser, Jürgen; Tenke, Craig E; Abraham, Karen S; Alschuler, Daniel M; Alvarenga, Jorge E; Skipper, Jamie; Warner, Virginia; Bruder, Gerard E; Weissman, Myrna M

    2017-01-01

    Behavioral and electrophysiologic evidence suggests that major depression (MDD) involves right parietotemporal dysfunction, a region activated by arousing affective stimuli. Building on prior event-related potential (ERP) findings (Kayser et al. 2016 NeuroImage 142:337-350), this study examined whether these abnormalities also characterize individuals at clinical high risk for MDD. We systematically explored the impact of family risk status and personal history of depression and anxiety on three distinct stages of emotional processing comprising the late positive potential (LPP). ERPs (72 channels) were recorded from 74 high and 53 low risk individuals (age 13-59 years, 58 male) during a visual half-field paradigm using highly-controlled pictures of cosmetic surgery patients showing disordered (negative) or healed (neutral) facial areas before or after treatment. Reference-free current source density (CSD) transformations of ERP waveforms were quantified by temporal principal components analysis (tPCA). Component scores of prominent CSD-tPCA factors sensitive to emotional content were analyzed via permutation tests and repeated measures ANOVA for mixed factorial designs with unstructured covariance matrix, including gender, age and clinical covariates. Factor-based distributed inverse solutions provided descriptive estimates of emotional brain activations at group level corresponding to hierarchical activations along ventral visual processing stream. Risk status affected emotional responsivity (increased positivity to negative-than-neutral stimuli) overlapping early N2 sink (peak latency 212 ms), P3 source (385 ms), and a late centroparietal source (630 ms). High risk individuals had reduced right-greater-than-left emotional lateralization involving occipitotemporal cortex (N2 sink) and bilaterally reduced emotional effects involving posterior cingulate (P3 source) and inferior temporal cortex (630 ms) when compared to those at low risk. While the early

  11. Causes of disagreement and conditions of agreement in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jungermann, H.; Wiedemann, P.M.

    1990-01-01

    The intuitive, e.g. the estimation of a 'risk' which is not determined by a certain scientific method does obviously not only depend on the probabilities of occurring events and on the evaluation of the consequences of these events. There are further factors, the significance of which can be important for the estimation of the risk as well as for the risk behaviour. This is the topic in this article. At first cognitive determinants for estimating the probability and consequences are described, then further dimensions of the risk understanding are outlined, and finally appropriate steps are taken for the communication about technical risks. The study especially deals with the risk as function of probability and failure, characteristics of consequences, situation genesis as well as with risk and ambiguity. (orig./HSCH) [de

  12. Does ambiguity aversion influence the framing effect during decision making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmont, Anaïs; Cassotti, Mathieu; Agogué, Marine; Houdé, Olivier; Moutier, Sylvain

    2015-04-01

    Decision-makers present a systematic tendency to avoid ambiguous options for which the level of risk is unknown. This ambiguity aversion is one of the most striking decision-making biases. Given that human choices strongly depend on the options' presentation, the purpose of the present study was to examine whether ambiguity aversion influences the framing effect during decision making. We designed a new financial decision-making task involving the manipulation of both frame and uncertainty levels. Thirty-seven participants had to choose between a sure option and a gamble depicting either clear or ambiguous probabilities. The results revealed a clear preference for the sure option in the ambiguity condition regardless of frame. However, participants presented a framing effect in both the risk and ambiguity conditions. Indeed, the framing effect was bidirectional in the risk condition and unidirectional in the ambiguity condition given that it did not involve preference reversal but only a more extreme choice tendency.

  13. Are Teams Less Inequality Averse than Individuals?

    OpenAIRE

    He, Haoran; Villeval, Marie Claire

    2014-01-01

    We compare inequality aversion in individuals and teams by means of both within- and between-subject experimental designs, and we investigate how teams aggregate individual preferences. We find that team decisions reveal less inequality aversion than individual initial proposals in team decision-making. However, teams are no more selfish than individuals who decide in isolation. Individuals express strategically more inequality aversion in their initial proposals in team decision-making becau...

  14. Assessment of health risks caused by air pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilsson, Robert.

    1991-02-01

    This report is a support document to an other report from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 'Risk assessment - a research programme aimed at health risks from air pollution in the general environment', report 3890, 1991 and is a survey of the scientific 'state of the art' in the different parts of risk assessment. Furthermore certain proposals are made concerning the scientific content of the future research in this area. (au)

  15. Alcohol-Aversion Therapy: Relation Between Strength of Aversion and Abstinence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Dale S.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Assessed degree of alcohol aversion in 60 alcoholics who received emetic alcohol-aversion therapy. Results revealed changes in response to alcoholic, but not to nonalcoholic, flavors, including decreased consumption in taste tests, more negative flavor ratings, overt behavioral indicants of aversion and increased tachycardiac response. (Author/NB)

  16. Risk management and liability for environmental harm caused by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This calls for the existence of a liability regime that will place some legal responsibility on the party responsible for the harm. This paper assesses the South African regulatory framework of relevance to GMOs, which is composed of a fragmented set of laws that deals with risk assessment, risk management and liability for ...

  17. Preliminary analysis of hydrogen risk caused by dust in ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng Kun; Tong Lili; Cao Xuewu

    2012-01-01

    A lot of dust will be generated during ITER operation,and hydrogen will be produced by the interaction of hot dust with water in the case of coolant ingress accident. The accumulated hydrogen will bring risk of combustion and explosion,which will damage the device. CFD method has been used to analyze the produced hydrogen in 'wet bypass' scenario, and come to the results that hydrogen will burn and explode at the beginning of the accident, different hydrogen risk will be brought by different coolant leakage, and hydrogen risk will be inert if the leakage is massive.Injecting CO 2 to inert the vacuum vessel has also been discussed, the risk of hydrogen will be suppressed by injecting CO 2 with a large rate at the beginning of accident. (authors)

  18. Fractional-moment CAPM with loss aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Yahao; Wang Xiaotian; Wu Min

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new fractional-order value function which generalizes the value function of Kahneman and Tversky [Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 1979;47:263-91; Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J. Risk Uncertainty 1992;4:297-323], and give the corresponding fractional-moment versions of CAPM in the cases of both the prospect theory [Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 1979;47:263-91; Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J. Risk Uncertainty 1992;4:297-323] and the expected utility model. The models that we obtain can be used to price assets when asset return distributions are likely to be asymmetric stable Levy distribution during panics and stampedes in worldwide security markets in 2008. In particular, from the prospect theory we get the following fractional-moment CAPM with loss aversion: E(R i -R 0 )=(E[(W-W 0 ) + -0.12 (R i -R 0 )]+2.25E[(W 0 -W) + -0.12 (R i -R 0 )])/ (E[(W-W 0 ) + -0.12 (W-R 0 )]+2.25E[(W 0 -W) + -0.12 (W-R 0 )]) .E(W-R 0 ), where W 0 is a fixed reference point distinguishing between losses and gains.

  19. To answer or not to answer? A field test of loss aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Michał Krawczyk

    2011-01-01

    This study is a field experiment on loss aversion. The framing of scoring rules was differentiated in two exams at the University of Warsaw, with only half the students facing explicit penalty points in the case of giving an incorrect answer. Loss aversion predicts that less risk will be taken (less questions will be answered) when losses are possible but in fact, no treatment effect was observed.

  20. Inequality Aversion and Voting on Redistribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Höchtl, Wolfgang; Sausgruber, Rupert; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    of income classes. We experimentally study voting on redistribution between two income classes and show that the effect of inequality aversion is asymmetric. Inequality aversion is more likely to matter if the “rich” are in majority. With a “poor” majority, we find that redistribution outcomes look...

  1. Inequality aversion and voting on redistribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Höchtl, Wolfgang; Sausgruber, Rupert; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2012-01-01

    of income classes. We experimentally study voting on redistribution between two income classes and show that the effect of inequality aversion is asymmetric. Inequality aversion is more likely to matter if the “rich” are in majority. With a “poor” majority, we find that redistribution outcomes look...

  2. An Aversion-Desensitization Treatment for Alcoholism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primo, Richard V.; And Others

    1972-01-01

    A six-to nine-month interview follow-up showed that five of the seven traceable Ss given the interpersonal aversion-systematic desensitization treatment had been abstinent, compared with only one of seven treated by the interpersonal aversion-control procedure. (Author)

  3. A competing risk approach for the European Heart SCORE model based on cause-specific and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Støvring, Henrik; Harmsen, Charlotte G; Wisløff, Torbjørn

    2013-01-01

    for older individuals. When non-CVD mortality was assumed unaffected by smoking status, the absolute risk reduction due to statin treatment ranged from 0.0% to 3.5%, whereas the gain in expected residual lifetime ranged from 3 to 11 months. Statin effectiveness increased for non-smokers and declined...... pressure, and total cholesterol level. The SCORE model, however, is not mathematically consistent and does not estimate all-cause mortality. Our aim is to modify the SCORE model to allow consistent estimation of both CVD-specific and all-cause mortality. Methods: Using a competing risk approach, we first...

  4. Causes and Risk Factors for Maternal Mortality in Rural Tanzania ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJRH Managing Editor

    , School of Public Health ... Keywords: Maternal death, maternal mortality, risk factors and developing country .... technique which encompasses use of educational ..... Farm. Workers. 0.70. 0.547. (0.213-2.267). Cannot work 2.67. 0.396. (0.277-.

  5. Preliminary Investigation of Risk Factors Causing Dyskinesias in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: To determine the risk factors involved in the onset of dyskinesias in patients suffering from Parkinson's disease in South Africa. Methods: A questionnaire survey and medical record review were conducted. A total of 43 patients with Parkinson's disease in two metropolitan areas were included in the study. Results: ...

  6. Multiple causes of stress in the context of radiation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, P.T.

    1996-01-01

    In the presence of a threat from radiation, such as that posed by exposure to contamination caused by the Chernobyl accident, people are actually confronted with a variety of 'threats'. These include a mixture of components having objective and subjective elements. The management of countermeasures, in particular, contributes to the definition of the situation which labels the threats of people encounter. Some findings from the affected areas in the former Soviet Union are discussed to demonstrate the impact of several factors on the affect response of the population. (author)

  7. Determinants of Propranolol's Selective Effect on Loss Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Lackovic, Sandra F; Tobe, Russell H; Camerer, Colin F; Leventhal, Bennett L; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2015-07-01

    Research on emotion and decision making has suggested that arousal mediates risky decisions, but several distinct and often confounded processes drive such choices. We used econometric modeling to separate and quantify the unique contributions of loss aversion, risk attitudes, and choice consistency to risky decision making. We administered the beta-blocker propranolol in a double-blind, placebo-controlled within-subjects study, targeting the neurohormonal basis of physiological arousal. Matching our intervention's pharmacological specificity with a quantitative model delineating decision-making components allowed us to identify the causal relationships between arousal and decision making that do and do not exist. Propranolol selectively reduced loss aversion in a baseline- and dose-dependent manner (i.e., as a function of initial loss aversion and body mass index), and did not affect risk attitudes or choice consistency. These findings provide evidence for a specific, modulatory, and causal relationship between precise components of emotion and risky decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. Determinants of propranolol’s selective effect on loss aversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Lackovic, Sandra F.; Tobe, Russell H.; Camerer, Colin F.; Leventhal, Bennett L.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Research on emotion and decision-making has suggested that arousal mediates risky decisions (e.g., Bechara et al., 1997), but several distinct and often confounded processes drive such choices. Here, we used econometric modeling to separate and quantify the unique contributions of loss aversion, risk sensitivity and choice consistency to risky decision-making. We administered the beta-blocker propranolol in a double-blind, placebo-controlled within-subjects study, targeting the neurohormonal basis of physiological arousal. Matching our intervention’s pharmacological specificity with a quantitative model delineating decision-making components allowed us to identify the causal relationships between arousal and decision-making that do and do not exist. Propranolol selectively reduced loss aversion in a baseline- and dose-dependent manner (i.e. as a function of initial loss aversion and body-mass index), and did not affect risk sensitivity or choice consistency. These findings provide evidence for a specific, modulatory, and causal relationship between precise components of both emotion and risky decision-making. PMID:26063441

  9. Postmenopausal bleeding: causes and risk of genital tract malignancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dawood, N.S.; Peter, K.; Ibrar, F.; Dawood, A.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Postmenopausal bleeding (PMB) is bleeding occurring after 6-12 months of amenorrhea in a woman of age where the menopause can be expected. Objectives of this study were to ascertain various causes and prevalence of genital organ malignancy in patients presenting with postmenopausal bleeding. Methods: A prospective observational study carried out in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Fauji Foundation Hospital, Rawalpindi comprising of 167 consecutive cases presenting with postmenopausal bleeding one year after menopause. Women having undergone hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy, receiving radiotherapy or chemotherapy, suffered trauma to the genital tract, having coagulation disorder or on anticoagulant or hormone replacement therapy were excluded. Detailed history was obtained and a thorough clinical examination was conducted. Data were entered into hospital computer database (Medix) system. Mean +- SD were calculated for age, percentage was calculated for types of histopathological findings. Results: The commonest cause of PMB was atrophic endometritis and vaginitis 33 (21.2%). Overall incidence of various genital tract malignancies was 25 (16.0%). Conclusion: The overall incidence of genital tract malignancies in patients presenting with PMB is high (16.0%), therefore, it needs to be taken seriously and requires prompt and thorough investigations. (author)

  10. Social influences on inequity aversion in children.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine McAuliffe

    Full Text Available Adults and children are willing to sacrifice personal gain to avoid both disadvantageous and advantageous inequity. These two forms of inequity aversion follow different developmental trajectories, with disadvantageous inequity aversion emerging around 4 years and advantageous inequity aversion emerging around 8 years. Although inequity aversion is assumed to be specific to situations where resources are distributed among individuals, the role of social context has not been tested in children. Here, we investigated the influence of two aspects of social context on inequity aversion in 4- to 9-year-old children: (1 the role of the experimenter distributing rewards and (2 the presence of a peer with whom rewards could be shared. Experiment 1 showed that children rejected inequity at the same rate, regardless of whether the experimenter had control over reward allocations. This indicates that children's decisions are based upon reward allocations between themselves and a peer and are not attempts to elicit more favorable distributions from the experimenter. Experiment 2 compared rejections of unequal reward allocations in children interacting with or without a peer partner. When faced with a disadvantageous distribution, children frequently rejected a smaller reward when a larger reward was visible, even if no partner would obtain the larger reward. This suggests that nonsocial factors partly explain disadvantageous inequity rejections. However, rejections of disadvantageous distributions were higher when the larger amount would go to a peer, indicating that social context enhances disadvantageous inequity aversion. By contrast, children rejected advantageous distributions almost exclusively in the social context. Therefore, advantageous inequity aversion appears to be genuinely social, highlighting its potential relevance for the development of fairness concerns. By comparing social and nonsocial factors, this study provides a detailed picture of

  11. Visual Aversive Learning Compromises Sensory Discrimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shalev, Lee; Paz, Rony; Avidan, Galia

    2018-03-14

    Aversive learning is thought to modulate perceptual thresholds, which can lead to overgeneralization. However, it remains undetermined whether this modulation is domain specific or a general effect. Moreover, despite the unique role of the visual modality in human perception, it is unclear whether this aspect of aversive learning exists in this modality. The current study was designed to examine the effect of visual aversive outcomes on the perception of basic visual and auditory features. We tested the ability of healthy participants, both males and females, to discriminate between neutral stimuli, before and after visual learning. In each experiment, neutral stimuli were associated with aversive images in an experimental group and with neutral images in a control group. Participants demonstrated a deterioration in discrimination (higher discrimination thresholds) only after aversive learning. This deterioration was measured for both auditory (tone frequency) and visual (orientation and contrast) features. The effect was replicated in five different experiments and lasted for at least 24 h. fMRI neural responses and pupil size were also measured during learning. We showed an increase in neural activations in the anterior cingulate cortex, insula, and amygdala during aversive compared with neutral learning. Interestingly, the early visual cortex showed increased brain activity during aversive compared with neutral context trials, with identical visual information. Our findings imply the existence of a central multimodal mechanism, which modulates early perceptual properties, following exposure to negative situations. Such a mechanism could contribute to abnormal responses that underlie anxiety states, even in new and safe environments. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Using a visual aversive-learning paradigm, we found deteriorated discrimination abilities for visual and auditory stimuli that were associated with visual aversive stimuli. We showed increased neural

  12. Internal risks of factoring business: identification, cause-effect relationships, accounting and management aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.M. Vygivska

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article identifies the risks of the economic activity of a factoring company. The identified risks are divided into internal (fraud risk, credit risk, liquidity, nonpayment, staff, supplier's failure to meet the terms of the supply / factoring contract and external (legal, inflation, currency, interest, industry risks, country risk. The cause-effect relationships of the identified risks have been established. The content of information requests of the leading part of the factoring company, as well as the management subsystems (accounting, economic analysis, control and planning, and the direction of information flows between them (to manage the company's internal risks is determined. These proposals contribute to the improvement of accounting and analytical support for risk management of the factoring business, the choice of alternative risk management methods, the impact on their possible consequences, minimizing the negative impact of risks on the financial condition of the company, and establishing the effectiveness of factoring operations under risk.

  13. Fractional-moment CAPM with loss aversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu Yahao [Dep. of Math., South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640 (China); Wang Xiaotian [Dep. of Math., South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640 (China)], E-mail: swa001@126.com; Wu Min [Dep. of Math., South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640 (China)

    2009-11-15

    In this paper, we present a new fractional-order value function which generalizes the value function of Kahneman and Tversky [Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 1979;47:263-91; Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J. Risk Uncertainty 1992;4:297-323], and give the corresponding fractional-moment versions of CAPM in the cases of both the prospect theory [Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 1979;47:263-91; Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J. Risk Uncertainty 1992;4:297-323] and the expected utility model. The models that we obtain can be used to price assets when asset return distributions are likely to be asymmetric stable Levy distribution during panics and stampedes in worldwide security markets in 2008. In particular, from the prospect theory we get the following fractional-moment CAPM with loss aversion: E(R{sub i}-R{sub 0})=(E[(W-W{sub 0}){sub +}{sup -0.12}(R{sub i}-R{sub 0})]+2.25E[(W{sub 0}-W){sub +}{sup -0.12}(R{sub i}-R{sub 0})])/ (E[(W-W{sub 0}){sub +}{sup -0.12} (W-R{sub 0})]+2.25E[(W{sub 0}-W){sub +}{sup -0.12}(W-R{sub 0})]) .E(W-R{sub 0}), where W{sub 0} is a fixed reference point distinguishing between losses and gains.

  14. Expressing negative emotions to children: Mothers' aversion sensitivity and children's adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moed, Anat; Dix, Theodore; Anderson, Edward R; Greene, Shannon M

    2017-03-01

    Research is unclear about when expressing negative emotions to children performs valuable socialization and regulatory functions and when, instead, it undermines children's adjustment. In this study, we isolated 1 kind of negative expression to test the aversion sensitivity hypothesis: that rapid increases in mothers' negativity as a function of increases in the aversiveness of children's behavior are uniquely problematic for children. During multiple assessments of a divorcing sample over 2 years (N = 284), 12-min interactions between mothers and their 4- to 11-year-old children were recorded. Forty-seven observed child behaviors were ranked from low to high aversive. Within-dyad changes demonstrated that mothers' general negativity-their tendency to express negative emotion at high rates-was unrelated to children's adjustment. In contrast, mothers' aversion-focused negativity-their tendency to increase negative emotional expression rapidly as the aversiveness of children's behavior increased-predicted children's poor social competence, poor emotion regulation, and externalizing behavior problems at the next assessment. The findings suggest that negative expression that reflects mothers' affective sensitivity to aversive child behavior may promote interaction patterns and adaptations in children that are particularly likely to place children at risk for adjustment problems. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. The functional and structural neural basis of individual differences in loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canessa, Nicola; Crespi, Chiara; Motterlini, Matteo; Baud-Bovy, Gabriel; Chierchia, Gabriele; Pantaleo, Giuseppe; Tettamanti, Marco; Cappa, Stefano F

    2013-09-04

    Decision making under risk entails the anticipation of prospective outcomes, typically leading to the greater sensitivity to losses than gains known as loss aversion. Previous studies on the neural bases of choice-outcome anticipation and loss aversion provided inconsistent results, showing either bidirectional mesolimbic responses of activation for gains and deactivation for losses, or a specific amygdala involvement in processing losses. Here we focused on loss aversion with the aim to address interindividual differences in the neural bases of choice-outcome anticipation. Fifty-six healthy human participants accepted or rejected 104 mixed gambles offering equal (50%) chances of gaining or losing different amounts of money while their brain activity was measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We report both bidirectional and gain/loss-specific responses while evaluating risky gambles, with amygdala and posterior insula specifically tracking the magnitude of potential losses. At the individual level, loss aversion was reflected both in limbic fMRI responses and in gray matter volume in a structural amygdala-thalamus-striatum network, in which the volume of the "output" centromedial amygdala nuclei mediating avoidance behavior was negatively correlated with monetary performance. We conclude that outcome anticipation and ensuing loss aversion involve multiple neural systems, showing functional and structural individual variability directly related to the actual financial outcomes of choices. By supporting the simultaneous involvement of both appetitive and aversive processing in economic decision making, these results contribute to the interpretation of existing inconsistencies on the neural bases of anticipating choice outcomes.

  16. Neural loss aversion differences between depression patients and healthy individuals: A functional MRI investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekhar Pammi, V S; Pillai Geethabhavan Rajesh, Purushothaman; Kesavadas, Chandrasekharan; Rappai Mary, Paramban; Seema, Satish; Radhakrishnan, Ashalatha; Sitaram, Ranganatha

    2015-04-01

    Neuroeconomics employs neuroscience techniques to explain decision-making behaviours. Prospect theory, a prominent model of decision-making, features a value function with parameters for risk and loss aversion. Recent work with normal participants identified activation related to loss aversion in brain regions including the amygdala, ventral striatum, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. However, the brain network for loss aversion in pathologies such as depression has yet to be identified. The aim of the current study is to employ the value function from prospect theory to examine behavioural and neural manifestations of loss aversion in depressed and healthy individuals to identify the neurobiological markers of loss aversion in economic behaviour. We acquired behavioural data and fMRI scans while healthy controls and patients with depression performed an economic decision-making task. Behavioural loss aversion was higher in patients with depression than in healthy controls. fMRI results revealed that the two groups shared a brain network for value function including right ventral striatum, ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and right amygdala. However, the neural loss aversion results revealed greater activations in the right dorsal striatum and the right anterior insula for controls compared with patients with depression, and higher activations in the midbrain region ventral tegmental area for patients with depression compared with controls. These results suggest that while the brain network for loss aversion is shared between depressed and healthy individuals, some differences exist with respect to differential activation of additional areas. Our findings are relevant to identifying neurobiological markers for altered decision-making in the depressed. © The Author(s) 2015 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  17. Aversive smell associations shape social judgment

    OpenAIRE

    Homan, Philipp; Ely, Benjamin A.; Yuan, May; Brosch, Tobias; Ng, John; Trope, Yaacov; Schiller, Daniela

    2017-01-01

    Once associating another person with an unpleasant smell, how do we perceive and judge this person from that moment on? Here, we used aversive olfactory conditioning followed by a social attribution task during functional magnetic resonance imaging to address this question. After conditioning, where one of two faces was repeatedly paired with an aversive smell, the participants reported negative affect when viewing the smell-conditioned but not the neutral face. When subsequently confronted w...

  18. Oxytocin attenuates aversive response to nicotine and anxiety-like behavior in adolescent rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyunchan; Jang, Minji; Noh, Jihyun

    2017-02-01

    Initial tobacco use is initiated with rewarding and aversive properties of nicotine and aversive response to nicotine plays a critical role in nicotine dependency. Decrease of nicotine aversion increases the nicotine use that causes behavioral and neuronal changes of animals. Oxytocin influences drug abuse and reciprocally affect vulnerability to drug use. To assess the effect of oxytocin on initial nicotine aversion and anxiety, we examined voluntary oral nicotine intake and anxiety-like behavior following oxytocin treatment in adolescent rats. Sprague-Dawley male rats (4 weeks old) were used. For oxytocin administration, rats were injected subcutaneously with saline or oxytocin (0.01, 0.1 and 1mg/kg) according to the assigned groups. Voluntary oral nicotine consumption test was performed by two bottle free-choice paradigm. To examine anxiety-like behavior in rats, we performed a light/dark box test. Oxytocin not only significantly increased the nicotine intake but also alleviated nicotine aversion after acclimation to nicotine solution in a concentration dependent manner. Meanwhile, oxytocin significantly reduced anxiety-like behavior. We suggest that oxytocin itself mitigates aversive response toward initial nicotine intake and anxiety-like behavior. These results widen the psychophysiological perspective on oxytocin for better understanding of nicotine addiction related behaviors influenced by diverse social factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and Japan Neuroscience Society. All rights reserved.

  19. Pupillometry reveals the physiological underpinnings of the aversion to holes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayzenberg, Vladislav; Hickey, Meghan R; Lourenco, Stella F

    2018-01-01

    An unusual, but common, aversion to images with clusters of holes is known as trypophobia. Recent research suggests that trypophobic reactions are caused by visual spectral properties also present in aversive images of evolutionary threatening animals (e.g., snakes and spiders). However, despite similar spectral properties, it remains unknown whether there is a shared emotional response to holes and threatening animals. Whereas snakes and spiders are known to elicit a fear reaction, associated with the sympathetic nervous system, anecdotal reports from self-described trypophobes suggest reactions more consistent with disgust, which is associated with activation of the parasympathetic nervous system. Here we used pupillometry in a novel attempt to uncover the distinct emotional response associated with a trypophobic response to holes. Across two experiments, images of holes elicited greater constriction compared to images of threatening animals and neutral images. Moreover, this effect held when controlling for level of arousal and accounting for the pupil grating response. This pattern of pupillary response is consistent with involvement of the parasympathetic nervous system and suggests a disgust, not a fear, response to images of holes. Although general aversion may be rooted in shared visual-spectral properties, we propose that the specific emotion is determined by cognitive appraisal of the distinct image content.

  20. Ambiguity and risk measures in the lab and students’ real-life borrowing behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fairley, Kim; Weitzel, Utz

    This study analyzes the external validity of experimentally elicited ambiguity aversion, likelihood insensitivity and risk aversion on real-life decision-making in the field of student loans. Our main finding is that ambiguity aversion, likelihood insensitivity and risk aversion are not related to

  1. "Incidental fear cues increase monetary loss aversion": Correction to Schulreich, Gerhardt, and Heekeren (2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Reports an error in "Incidental fear cues increase monetary loss aversion" by Stefan Schulreich, Holger Gerhardt and Hauke R. Heekeren ( Emotion , 2016[Apr], Vol 16[3], 402-412). In the current article, there was an error in the Study 2 portion of the article. The fourth paragraph of the Results section should read as follows: Performing the same analyses as in Study 1, we found an effect of incidental fear cues on decision behavior. Participants accepted fewer gambles in the fearful-face condition (32.77%) than in the neutral-face condition (33.96%), with Z = -2.187, p = .027, d = -0.998 in the Wilcoxon signed-ranks test and β = 0.012, SE = 0.0053, F(1, 21) = 4.434, p = .047, partial η² = .174 in the linear regression. This suggests increased risk aversion in the fearful-face condition. Concerning personality, however, there were no significant between-subjects effects or between-within interaction effects (all ps = .349). (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2015-52358-001.) In many everyday decisions, people exhibit loss aversion-a greater sensitivity to losses relative to gains of equal size. Loss aversion is thought to be (at least partly) mediated by emotional-in particular, fear-related-processes. Decision research has shown that even incidental emotions, which are unrelated to the decision at hand, can influence decision making. The effect of incidental fear on loss aversion, however, is thus far unclear. In two studies, we experimentally investigated how incidental fear cues, presented during (Study 1) or before (Study 2) choices to accept or reject mixed gambles over real monetary stakes, influence monetary loss aversion. We find that the presentation of fearful faces, relative to the presentation of neutral faces, increased risk aversion-an effect that could be attributed to increased loss aversion. The size of this effect was moderated by psychopathic personality: Fearless dominance, in particular its interpersonal facet

  2. QUANTIFYING AND MODELING THE RISK OF DISTURBANCE TO ECOSYSTEMS CAUSED BY INVASIVE SPECIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Invasive species are biological pollutants that threaten ecosystem health. Identifying the mechanisms of invasive and developing predictive models of invasion will be critical to developing risk management strategies for limiting the economic and environmental damage caused by i...

  3. Reference-dependent preferences and loss aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Einat Neuman

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available This study employs a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE in the health-care sector to test the loss aversion theory that is derived from reference-dependent preferences: The absolute subjective value of a deviation from a reference point is generally greater when the deviation represents a loss than when the same-sized change is perceived as a gain. As far as is known, this paper is the first to use a DCE to test the loss aversion theory. A DCE is a highly suitable tool for such testing because it estimates the marginal valuations of attributes, based onextit{ deviations from a reference point} (a constant scenario. Moreover, loss aversion can be examined for extit{each attribute separately}. Another advantage of a DCE is that is can be applied toextit{ non-traded goods with non-tangible attributes}. A health-care event is used for empirical illustration: The loss aversion theory is tested within the context of preference structures for maternity-ward attributes, estimated using data gathered from 3850 observations made by a sample of 542 women who had recently given birth. Seven hypotheses are presented and tested. Overall, significant support for behavioral loss aversion theories was found. %JEL codes: D01, D12, I19

  4. My loss is your loss ... Sometimes: loss aversion and the effect of motivational biases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robyn S; Arvai, Joseph L; Arkes, Hal R

    2008-08-01

    Findings from previous studies of individual decision-making behavior predict that losses will loom larger than gains. It is less clear, however, if this loss aversion applies to the way in which individuals attribute value to the gains and losses of others, or if it is robust across a broad spectrum of policy and management decision contexts. Consistent with previous work, the results from a series of experiments reported here revealed that subjects exhibited loss aversion when evaluating their own financial gains and losses. The presence of loss aversion was also confirmed for the way in which individuals attribute value to the financial gains and losses of others. However, similar evaluations within social and environmental contexts did not exhibit loss aversion. In addition, research subjects expected that individuals who were unknown to them would significantly undervalue the subjects' own losses across all contexts. The implications of these findings for risk-based policy and management are many. Specifically, they warrant caution when relying upon loss aversion to explain or predict the reaction of affected individuals to risk-based decisions that involve moral or protected values. The findings also suggest that motivational biases may lead decisionmakers to assume that their attitudes and beliefs are common among those affected by a decision, while those affected may expect unfamiliar others to be unable to identify and act in accordance with shared values.

  5. Subclinical and overt thyroid dysfunction and risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selmer, Christian; Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Hansen, Morten Lock

    2014-01-01

    hypothyroidism with TSH of 5-10 mIU/L [IRR 0.92 (95% CI 0.86-0.98)]. CONCLUSIONS: Heart failure is the leading cause of an increased cardiovascular mortality in both overt and subclinical hyperthyroidism. Subclinical hypothyroidism with TSH 5-10 mIU/L might be associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality....

  6. How to make loss aversion disappear and reverse: tests of the decision by sampling origin of loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walasek, Lukasz; Stewart, Neil

    2015-02-01

    One of the most robust empirical findings in the behavioral sciences is loss aversion--the finding that losses loom larger than gains. We offer a new psychological explanation of the origins of loss aversion in which loss aversion emerges from differences in the distribution of gains and losses people experience. In 4 experiments, we tested this proposition by manipulating the range of gains and losses that individuals saw during the process of eliciting their loss aversion. We were able to find loss aversion, loss neutrality, and even the reverse of loss aversion.

  7. A root cause analysis approach to risk assessment of a pipeline network for Kuwait Oil Company

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, Ray J.; Alfano, Tony D. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Waheed, Farrukh [Kuwait Oil Company, Ahmadi (Kuwait); Komulainen, Tiina [Kongsberg Oil and Gas Technologies, Sandvika (Norway)

    2009-07-01

    A large scale risk assessment was performed by Det Norske Veritas (DNV) for the entire Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) pipeline network. This risk assessment was unique in that it incorporated the assessment of all major sources of process related risk faced by KOC and included root cause management system related risks in addition to technical risks related to more immediate causes. The assessment was conducted across the entire pipeline network with the scope divided into three major categories:1. Integrity Management 2. Operations 3. Management Systems Aspects of integrity management were ranked and prioritized using a custom algorithm based on critical data sets. A detailed quantitative risk assessment was then used to further evaluate those issues deemed unacceptable, and finally a cost benefit analysis approach was used to compare and select improvement options. The operations assessment involved computer modeling of the entire pipeline network to assess for bottlenecks, surge and erosion analysis, and to identify opportunities within the network that could potentially lead to increased production. The management system assessment was performed by conducting a gap analysis on the existing system and by prioritizing those improvement actions that best aligned with KOC's strategic goals for pipelines. Using a broad and three-pronged approach to their overall risk assessment, KOC achieved a thorough, root cause analysis-based understanding of risks to their system as well as a detailed list of recommended remediation measures that were merged into a 5-year improvement plan. (author)

  8. All-Cause and Cause-Specific Risk of Emergency Transport Attributable to Temperature: A Nationwide Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

    2015-12-01

    Although several studies have estimated the associations between mortality or morbidity and extreme temperatures in terms of relative risk, few studies have investigated the risk of emergency transport attributable to the whole temperature range nationwide.We acquired data on daily emergency ambulance dispatches in all 47 prefectures of Japan from 2007 to 2010. We examined the relationship between emergency transport and temperature for each prefecture using a Poisson regression model in a distributed lag nonlinear model with adjustment for time trends. A random-effect multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the estimates at the national level. Attributable morbidity was calculated for high and low temperatures, which were defined as those above or below the optimum temperature (ie, the minimum morbidity temperature) and for moderate and also extreme temperatures, which were defined using cutoffs at the 2.5th and 97.5th temperature percentiles.A total of 15,868,086 cases of emergency transport met the inclusion criteria. The emergency transport was attributable to nonoptimal temperature. The median minimum morbidity percentile was in the 79th percentile for all causes, the 96th percentile for cardiovascular disease, and the 92th percentile for respiratory disease. The fraction attributable to low temperature was 6.94% (95% eCI: 5.93-7.70) for all causes, 17.93% (95% eCI: 16.10-19.25) for cardiovascular disease, and 12.19% (95% eCI: 9.90-13.66) for respiratory disease, whereas the fraction attributable to high temperature was small (all causes = 1.01%, 95% eCI: 0.90-1.11; cardiovascular disease = 0.10%, 95% eCI: 0.04-0.14; respiratory disease = 0.29%, 95% eCI: 0.07-0.50). The all-cause morbidity risk that was attributable to temperature was related to moderate cold, with an overall estimate of 6.41% (95% eCI: 5.47-7.20). Extreme temperatures were responsible for a small fraction, which corresponded to 0.57% (95% eCI: 0.50-0.62) for extreme

  9. Hyponatremia, all-cause mortality, and risk of cancer diagnoses in the primary care setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selmer, Christian; Madsen, Jesper Clausager; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Hyponatremia has been associated with increased all-cause mortality in hospitalized individuals. In this study we examine the risk of all-cause mortality in primary care subjects with hyponatremia, while also exploring the association with subsequent diagnosis of cancer. METHODS...... was all-cause mortality, and secondary outcomes overall and specific types of cancer diagnoses. RESULTS: Among 625,114 included subjects (mean age 49.9 [SD±18.4] years; 43.5% males), 90,926 (14.5%) deaths occurred. All-cause mortality was increased in mild, moderate, and severe hyponatremia (age...... of hyponatremia are associated with all-cause mortality in primary care patients and hyponatremia is linked to an increased risk of being diagnosed with any cancer, particularly pulmonary and head and neck cancers....

  10. Loss aversion and rent-seeking: An experimental study

    OpenAIRE

    Kong, Xiaojing

    2008-01-01

    We report an experiment designed to evaluate the impact of loss aversion on rent-seeking contests. We find, as theoretically predicted, a negative relationship between rent-seeking expenditures and loss aversion. However, for any degree of loss aversion, levels of rent-seeking expenditure are higher than predicted. Moreover, we find that the effect of loss aversion becomes weaker with repetition of the contest.

  11. Association of BMI with risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kee, Chee Cheong; Sumarni, Mohd Ghazali; Lim, Kuang Hock; Selvarajah, Sharmini; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Tee, Guat Hiong Helen; Gurpreet, Kaur; Faudzi, Yusoff Ahmad; Amal, Nasir Mustafa

    2017-05-01

    To determine the relationship between BMI and risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality among Malaysian adults. Population-based, retrospective cohort study. Participants were followed up for 5 years from 2006 to 2010. Mortality data were obtained via record linkages with the Malaysian National Registration Department. Multiple Cox regression was applied to compare risk of CVD and all-cause mortality between BMI categories adjusting for age, gender and ethnicity. Models were generated for all participants, all participants the first 2 years of follow-up, healthy participants, healthy never smokers, never smokers, current smokers and former smokers. All fourteen states in Malaysia. Malaysian adults (n 32 839) aged 18 years or above from the third National Health and Morbidity Survey. Total follow-up time was 153 814 person-years with 1035 deaths from all causes and 225 deaths from CVD. Underweight (BMIBMI ≥30·0 kg/m2) was associated with a heightened risk of CVD mortality. Overweight (BMI=25·0-29·9 kg/m2) was inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality. Underweight was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in all models except for current smokers. Overweight was inversely associated with all-cause mortality in all participants. Although a positive trend was observed between BMI and CVD mortality in all participants, a significant association was observed only for severe obesity (BMI≥35·0 kg/m2). Underweight was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and obesity with increased risk of CVD mortality. Therefore, maintaining a normal BMI through leading an active lifestyle and healthy dietary habits should continue to be promoted.

  12. Overweight Without Central Obesity, Cardiovascular Risk, and All-Cause Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xin; Liu, Chen; Chen, Yili; He, Jiangui; Dong, Yugang

    2018-04-12

    To assess the association of overweight without central obesity with risks of mortality. We included 14,299 participants in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (from October 18, 1988, through October 15, 1994). According to their body mass index and waist circumference, participants were categorized into 7 anthropometric groups. Logistic regression models were used to assess the relation of cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, or hypercholesterolemia) and 10-year cardiovascular risk to anthropometric groups. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of all-cause mortality, and competing-risks regression models were used for calculating cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality. Compared with those with normal body mass index and waist circumference, overweight men without central obesity were more likely to have all 3 cardiovascular risk factors and a high cardiovascular risk, whereas women in this anthropometric group were more likely to have hypercholesterolemia. In proportional hazards models, overweight without central obesity was associated with lower all-cause mortality among men in the population with cardiovascular risk factors (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56-0.89; P=.004) and the general population (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.60-0.87; P=.001), whereas results of these comparisons among women were not significant (P>.05). In competing risk analyses, overweight men without central obesity had a lower risk of noncardiovascular mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Although overweight without central obesity was associated with cardiovascular risk factors and a high cardiovascular risk among men, men in this anthropometric group had a lower mortality risk. Copyright © 2018 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Probabilistic Sophistication, Second Order Stochastic Dominance, and Uncertainty Aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Simone Cerreia-Vioglio; Fabio Maccheroni; Massimo Marinacci; Luigi Montrucchio

    2010-01-01

    We study the interplay of probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance, and uncertainty aversion, three fundamental notions in choice under uncertainty. In particular, our main result, Theorem 2, characterizes uncertainty averse preferences that satisfy second order stochastic dominance, as well as uncertainty averse preferences that are probabilistically sophisticated.

  14. Aversion substance(s) of the rat coagulating glands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawienowski, Anthony M.; Berry, Iver J.; Kennelly, James J.

    1982-01-01

    The aversive substance(s) present in adult male urine were not found in castrate rat urine. Removal of the coagulating glands also resulted in a loss of the aversion compounds. The aversion substances were restored to the urine after androgen treatment of the castrate rats.

  15. Consequences of regret aversion : effects of expected feedback on risky decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeelenberg, M.; Beattie, J.; Pligt, van der J.; Vries, de N.K.

    1996-01-01

    Previous research has considered the question of how anticipated regret affects risky decision making. Several studies have shown that anticipated regret forces participants towards the safe option, showing risk-aversion. We argue that these results are due to the previous confounding of the

  16. Aversive Life Events Enhance Human Freezing Responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagenaars, M.A.; Stins, J.F.; Roelofs, K.

    2012-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated the effect of prior aversive life events on freezing-like responses. Fifty healthy females were presented neutral, pleasant, and unpleasant images from the International Affective Picture System while standing on a stabilometric platform and wearing a polar band

  17. Aversive life events enhance human freezing responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagenaars, M.A.; Stins, J.F.; Roelofs, K.

    2012-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated the effect of prior aversive life events on freezing-like responses. Fifty healthy females were presented neutral, pleasant, and unpleasant images from the International Affective Picture System while standing on a stabilometric platform and wearing a polar band

  18. Memory reconsolidation in aversive and appetitive settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Claire Reichelt

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Memory reconsolidation has been observed across species and in a number of behavioural paradigms. The majority of memory reconsolidation studies have been carried out in pavlovian fear conditioning and other aversive memory settings, with potential implications for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder. However, there is a growing literature on memory reconsolidation in appetitive reward-related memory paradigms, including translational models of drug addiction. While there appears to be substantial similarity in the basic phenomenon and underlying mechanisms of memory reconsolidation across unconditioned stimulus valence, there are also notable discrepancies. These arise both when comparing aversive to appetitive paradigms and also across different paradigms within the same valence of memory. We review the demonstration of memory reconsolidation across different aversive and appetitive memory paradigms, the commonalities and differences in underlying mechanisms and the conditions under which each memory undergoes reconsolidation. We focus particularly on whether principles derived from the aversive literature are applicable to appetitive settings, and also whether the expanding literature in appetitive paradigms is informative for fear memory reconsolidation.

  19. Comparing uncertainty aversion towards different sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baillon, Aurélien; Liu, Ning; van Dolder, Dennie

    2017-01-01

    We propose simple behavioral definitions of comparative uncertainty aversion for a single agent towards different sources of uncertainty. Our definitions allow for the comparison of utility curvature for different sources if the agent’s choices satisfy subjective expected utility towards each

  20. On Loss Aversion in Capuchin Monkeys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silberberg, Alan; Roma, Peter G.; Huntsberry, Mary E.; Warren-Boulton, Frederick R.; Sakagami, Takayuki; Ruggiero, Angela M.; Suomi, Stephen J.

    2008-01-01

    Chen, Lakshminarayanan, and Santos (2006) claim to show in three choice experiments that monkeys react rationally to price and wealth shocks, but, when faced with gambles, display hallmark, human-like biases that include loss aversion. We present three experiments with monkeys and humans consistent with a reinterpretation of their data that…

  1. APPLICATION OF FISHBONE DIAGRAM TO DETERMINE THE RISK OF AN EVENT WITH MULTIPLE CAUSES

    OpenAIRE

    Gheorghe ILIE; Carmen Nadia CIOCOIU

    2010-01-01

    Fishbone diagram (also known as Ishikawa diagram) was created with the goal of identifying and grouping the causes which generate a quality problem. Gradually, the method has been used also to group in categories the causes of other types of problems which an organization confronts with. This made Fishbone diagram become a very useful instrument in risk identification stage. The article proposes to extend the applicability of the method by including in the analysis the probabilities and the i...

  2. Causes and risk factors of falls in patients with Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudzińska, Monika; Bukowczan, Sylwia; Banaszkiewicz, Krzysztof; Stozek, Joanna; Zajdel, Katarzyna; Szczudlik, Andrzej

    2008-01-01

    Falls are a common and serious problem among Parkinson's disease (PD) patients. However, knowledge about the causes and risk factors of falls is limited. There have been a few attempts to classify the causes of falls. The classification suggested by Olanow seems to be the most comprehensive one. The aim of this study was to analyze retrospectively the causes of falls and risk factors of falls in PD patients. One hundred and four patients with moderately advanced PD were included in the study. The patients were asked to describe the circumstances and consequences of falls which occurred during 12 months preceding the examination. The falls were classified according to the Olanow classification of causes of falls. Fifty-two patients (50%) reported at least one fall during the previous year with a mean number of 1.5 falls per year. The most common causes of falls were environmental factors, sudden falls and postural instability. There were no falls caused by severe dyskinesia, drugs or cardiovascular disorders. The only independent risk factors of the recurrent falls identified in this study were UPDRS part II score (OR 1.17, 95% CI: 1.02-1.37) and Mini Mental State Examination score (OR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.72-0.99). Considering these results we may be able to prevent most falls by means of the education of patients about environmental factors and using adequate rehabilitation techniques concentrating on postural stability and gait.

  3. Public beliefs about causes and risk factors for mental disorders: a comparison of Japan and Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nakane Hideyuki

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Surveys of the public in a range of Western countries have shown a predominant belief in social stressors as causes of mental disorders. However, there has been little direct cross-cultural comparison. Here we report a comparison of public beliefs about the causes of mental disorders in Japan and Australia. Methods Surveys of the public were carried out in each country using as similar a methodology as feasible. In both countries, household interviews were carried out concerning beliefs about causes and risk factors in relation to one of four case vignettes, describing either depression, depression with suicidal thoughts, early schizophrenia or chronic schizophrenia. In Japan, the survey involved 2000 adults aged between 20 and 69 from 25 regional sites spread across the country. In Australia, the survey involved a national sample of 3998 adults aged 18 years or over. Results In both countries, both social and personal vulnerability causes were commonly endorsed across all vignettes. The major differences in causal beliefs were that Australians were more likely to believe in infection, allergy and genetics, while Japanese were more likely to endorse "nervous person" and "weakness of character". For risk factors, Australians tended to believe that women, the young and the poor were more at risk of depression, but these were not seen as higher risk groups by Japanese. Conclusion In both Japan and Australia, the public has a predominant belief in social causes and risk factors, with personal vulnerability factors also seen as important. However, there are also some major differences between the countries. The belief in weakness of character as a cause, which was stronger in Japan, is of particular concern because it may reduce the likelihood of seeking professional help and support from others.

  4. Occupational heavy lifting and risk of ischemic heart disease and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Eriksen, Louise; Tolstrup, Janne S

    2012-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Occupational heavy lifting is known to impose a high cardiovascular strain, but the risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) from occupational heavy lifting is unknown. The objective was to investigate the association between occupational heavy lifting and risk of IHD and all...... cardiovascular disease at baseline. Conventional risk factors for the outcomes IHD and all-cause mortality were controlled for in Cox analyses. RESULTS: Among men, heavy lifting was associated with increased risk for IHD (hazard ratio (HR): 1.52, 95 % Confidence interval (95 % CI): 1.15, 2.02), while a decreased...... risk was associated with occupational (HR: 0.50, 95 % CI: 0.37, 0.68) and leisure time (HR: 0.73, 95 % CI: 0.56, 0.95) physical activity. Referencing men with high occupational physical activity and no heavy lifting, men with high occupational physical activity and heavy lifting did not have...

  5. A RESEARCH ON ACCIDENTS RISKS AND CAUSES IN THE NEONATAL INTENSIVE CARE UNITS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haluk Tanrıverdi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to demonstrate the relationship between the qualifications of neonatal intensive care units of hospitals (physical conditions, standard applications, employee qualifications and use of personal protective equipment and work related causes and risks, employee related causes and risks when occupational accidents occur. Accordingly, a survey was prepared and was made among 105 nurses working in 3 public and 3 private hospital's neonatal intensive care units, in the January of 2010. The survey consists of questions about the qualifications of neonatal intensive care units, work related causes and risks, and employee related causes and risks. From the regression analysis conducted, it has been found that confirmed hypotheses in several studies in the literature were not significant in this study. The sub-dimensions in which relationships has been found show that the improvement of the physical environment in workplace, the improvement of the employee qualifications and standard applications can reduce the rate of occupational accidents. According to the results of this study management should take care of the organizational factors besides to improvement of the physical environment in workplace, the improvement of the employee qualifications and standard applications.

  6. The risk and causes of death in childhoodonset epilepsy: A 4-study collaboration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, Anne T.; Nickels, K.; Wirrell, E.C.; Rios, C.; Geerts, A.T.; Callenbach, P.M.; Arts, W.F.; Camfield, P.R.; Camfield, C.S.

    2013-01-01

    Rationale: Young people with epilepsy experience high death rates compared to the general population. Understanding the magnitude of risk and the causes of death (CoD) is essential for counseling and for potential prevention. Methods: We combined the mortality experiences of four cohort studies of

  7. Mechanism and preclinical prevention of increased breast cancer risk caused by pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haricharan, Svasti; Dong, Jie; Hein, Sarah; Reddy, Jay P; Du, Zhijun; Toneff, Michael; Holloway, Kimberly; Hilsenbeck, Susan G; Huang, Shixia; Atkinson, Rachel; Woodward, Wendy; Jindal, Sonali; Borges, Virginia F; Gutierrez, Carolina; Zhang, Hong; Schedin, Pepper J; Osborne, C Kent; Tweardy, David J; Li, Yi

    2013-12-31

    While a first pregnancy before age 22 lowers breast cancer risk, a pregnancy after age 35 significantly increases life-long breast cancer risk. Pregnancy causes several changes to the normal breast that raise barriers to transformation, but how pregnancy can also increase cancer risk remains unclear. We show in mice that pregnancy has different effects on the few early lesions that have already developed in the otherwise normal breast-it causes apoptosis evasion and accelerated progression to cancer. The apoptosis evasion is due to the normally tightly controlled STAT5 signaling going astray-these precancerous cells activate STAT5 in response to pregnancy/lactation hormones and maintain STAT5 activation even during involution, thus preventing the apoptosis normally initiated by oncoprotein and involution. Short-term anti-STAT5 treatment of lactation-completed mice bearing early lesions eliminates the increased risk after a pregnancy. This chemoprevention strategy has important implications for preventing increased human breast cancer risk caused by pregnancy. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00996.001.

  8. Association of flavonoid-rich foods and flavonoids with risk of all-cause mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivey, Kerry L; Jensen, Majken K; Hodgson, Jonathan M; Eliassen, A Heather; Cassidy, Aedín; Rimm, Eric B

    2017-05-01

    Flavonoids are bioactive compounds found in foods such as tea, red wine, fruits and vegetables. Higher intakes of specific flavonoids, and flavonoid-rich foods, have been linked to reduced mortality from specific vascular diseases and cancers. However, the importance of flavonoid-rich foods, and flavonoids, in preventing all-cause mortality remains uncertain. As such, we examined the association of intake of flavonoid-rich foods and flavonoids with subsequent mortality among 93 145 young and middle-aged women in the Nurses' Health Study II. During 1 838 946 person-years of follow-up, 1808 participants died. When compared with non-consumers, frequent consumers of red wine, tea, peppers, blueberries and strawberries were at reduced risk of all-cause mortality (Pflavonoid intake were at reduced risk of all-cause mortality in the age-adjusted model; 0·81 (95 % CI 0·71, 0·93). However, this association was attenuated following multivariable adjustment; 0·92 (95 % CI 0·80, 1·06). Similar results were observed for consumption of flavan-3-ols, proanthocyanidins and anthocyanins. Flavonols, flavanones and flavones were not associated with all-cause mortality in any model. Despite null associations at the compound level and select foods, higher consumption of red wine, tea, peppers, blueberries and strawberries, was associated with reduced risk of total and cause-specific mortality. These findings support the rationale for making food-based dietary recommendations.

  9. Economic decisions for others: an exception to loss aversion law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengarelli, Flavia; Moretti, Laura; Faralla, Valeria; Vindras, Philippe; Sirigu, Angela

    2014-01-01

    In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision.

  10. Non-melanoma skin cancer and risk of Alzheimer's disease and all-cause dementia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigrun A J Schmidt

    Full Text Available Cancer patients may be at decreased risk of Alzheimer's disease. This hypothesis is best developed for non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC, but supportive epidemiological data are sparse. We therefore conducted a nationwide cohort study of the association between NMSC and Alzheimer's disease (main outcome and all-cause dementia. Using Danish medical databases, we identified adults diagnosed with NMSC between 1 January 1980 and 30 November 2013 (n = 216,221 and a comparison cohort of five individuals matched to each NMSC patient by sex and birth year (n = 1,081,097. We followed individuals from the time of diagnosis, or corresponding date for matched comparators, until a dementia diagnosis, death, emigration, or 30 November 2013, whichever came first. We used stratified Cox regression adjusted for comorbidities to compute hazard ratios (HRs associating NMSC with dementia. We computed cumulative risks of dementia, treating death as a competing risk. NMSC was associated with a HR of 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.92-0.98 for Alzheimer's disease and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90-0.94 for all-cause dementia. HRs were similar for basal cell and squamous cell carcinoma, the two most common forms of NMSC. Estimates of risk reduction were more pronounced in the beginning of follow-up, reaching null after 5-10 years. At the end of follow-up (34 years, cumulative risk of Alzheimer's disease was 4.6% (95% CI: 4.4%-4.8% among patients with NMSC vs. 4.7% (95% CI: 4.6%-4.9% in the comparison cohort. In conclusion, NMSC was associated with 2%-10% reductions in relative risks of Alzheimer's disease and all-cause dementia. However, these small inverse associations may have been caused by ascertainment bias due to decreased awareness of NMSC tumors in persons with undiagnosed early cognitive impairment or by confounding from a more neuroprotective lifestyle among persons with NMSC.

  11. Algorithm aversion: people erroneously avoid algorithms after seeing them err.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietvorst, Berkeley J; Simmons, Joseph P; Massey, Cade

    2015-02-01

    Research shows that evidence-based algorithms more accurately predict the future than do human forecasters. Yet when forecasters are deciding whether to use a human forecaster or a statistical algorithm, they often choose the human forecaster. This phenomenon, which we call algorithm aversion, is costly, and it is important to understand its causes. We show that people are especially averse to algorithmic forecasters after seeing them perform, even when they see them outperform a human forecaster. This is because people more quickly lose confidence in algorithmic than human forecasters after seeing them make the same mistake. In 5 studies, participants either saw an algorithm make forecasts, a human make forecasts, both, or neither. They then decided whether to tie their incentives to the future predictions of the algorithm or the human. Participants who saw the algorithm perform were less confident in it, and less likely to choose it over an inferior human forecaster. This was true even among those who saw the algorithm outperform the human.

  12. Increased Loss Aversion in Unmedicated Patients with Obsessive–Compulsive Disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamila E. Sip

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionObsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD patients show abnormalities in decision-making and, clinically, appear to show heightened sensitivity to potential negative outcomes. Despite the importance of these cognitive processes in OCD, few studies have examined the disorder within an economic decision-making framework. Here, we investigated loss aversion, a key construct in the prospect theory that describes the tendency for individuals to be more sensitive to potential losses than gains when making decisions.MethodsAcross two study sites, groups of unmedicated OCD patients (n = 14, medicated OCD patients (n = 29, and healthy controls (n = 34 accepted or rejected a series of 50/50 gambles containing varying loss/gain values. Loss aversion was calculated as the ratio of the likelihood of rejecting a gamble with increasing potential losses to the likelihood of accepting a gamble with increasing potential gains. Decision times to accept or reject were also examined and correlated with loss aversion.ResultsUnmedicated OCD patients exhibited significantly more loss aversion compared to medicated OCD or controls, an effect that was replicated across both sites and remained significant even after controlling for OCD symptom severity, trait anxiety, and sex. Post hoc analyses further indicated that unmedicated patients’ increased likelihood to reject a gamble as its loss value increased could not be explained solely by greater risk aversion among patients. Unmedicated patients were also slower to accept than reject gambles, effects that were not found in the other two groups. Loss aversion was correlated with decision times in unmedicated patients but not in the other two groups.DiscussionThese data identify abnormalities of decision-making in a subgroup of OCD patients not taking psychotropic medication. The findings help elucidate the cognitive mechanisms of the disorder and suggest that future treatments could aim to target

  13. Increased Loss Aversion in Unmedicated Patients with Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sip, Kamila E; Gonzalez, Richard; Taylor, Stephan F; Stern, Emily R

    2017-01-01

    Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) patients show abnormalities in decision-making and, clinically, appear to show heightened sensitivity to potential negative outcomes. Despite the importance of these cognitive processes in OCD, few studies have examined the disorder within an economic decision-making framework. Here, we investigated loss aversion, a key construct in the prospect theory that describes the tendency for individuals to be more sensitive to potential losses than gains when making decisions. Across two study sites, groups of unmedicated OCD patients ( n  = 14), medicated OCD patients ( n  = 29), and healthy controls ( n  = 34) accepted or rejected a series of 50/50 gambles containing varying loss/gain values. Loss aversion was calculated as the ratio of the likelihood of rejecting a gamble with increasing potential losses to the likelihood of accepting a gamble with increasing potential gains. Decision times to accept or reject were also examined and correlated with loss aversion. Unmedicated OCD patients exhibited significantly more loss aversion compared to medicated OCD or controls, an effect that was replicated across both sites and remained significant even after controlling for OCD symptom severity, trait anxiety, and sex. Post hoc analyses further indicated that unmedicated patients' increased likelihood to reject a gamble as its loss value increased could not be explained solely by greater risk aversion among patients. Unmedicated patients were also slower to accept than reject gambles, effects that were not found in the other two groups. Loss aversion was correlated with decision times in unmedicated patients but not in the other two groups. These data identify abnormalities of decision-making in a subgroup of OCD patients not taking psychotropic medication. The findings help elucidate the cognitive mechanisms of the disorder and suggest that future treatments could aim to target abnormalities of loss/gain processing during

  14. Neural markers of loss aversion in resting-state brain activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canessa, Nicola; Crespi, Chiara; Baud-Bovy, Gabriel; Dodich, Alessandra; Falini, Andrea; Antonellis, Giulia; Cappa, Stefano F

    2017-02-01

    Neural responses in striatal, limbic and somatosensory brain regions track individual differences in loss aversion, i.e. the higher sensitivity to potential losses compared with equivalent gains in decision-making under risk. The engagement of structures involved in the processing of aversive stimuli and experiences raises a further question, i.e. whether the tendency to avoid losses rather than acquire gains represents a transient fearful overreaction elicited by choice-related information, or rather a stable component of one's own preference function, reflecting a specific pattern of neural activity. We tested the latter hypothesis by assessing in 57 healthy human subjects whether the relationship between behavioral and neural loss aversion holds at rest, i.e. when the BOLD signal is collected during 5minutes of cross-fixation in the absence of an explicit task. Within the resting-state networks highlighted by a spatial group Independent Component Analysis (gICA), we found a significant correlation between strength of activity and behavioral loss aversion in the left ventral striatum and right posterior insula/supramarginal gyrus, i.e. the very same regions displaying a pattern of neural loss aversion during explicit choices. Cross-study analyses confirmed that this correlation holds when voxels identified by gICA are used as regions of interest in task-related activity and vice versa. These results suggest that the individual degree of (neural) loss aversion represents a stable dimension of decision-making, which reflects in specific metrics of intrinsic brain activity at rest possibly modulating cortical excitability at choice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Risk factors for suicide in offspring bereaved by sudden parental death from external causes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrell, Lisa Victoria; Mehlum, Lars; Qin, Ping

    2017-11-01

    Parentally bereaved offspring have an increased suicide risk as a group, but the ability to identify specific individuals at risk on the basis of risk and protective factors is limited. The present study aimed to investigate to what degree different risk factors influence suicide risk in offspring bereaved by parental death from external causes. Based on Norwegian registers, individual-level data were retrieved for 375 parentally bereaved suicide cases and 7500 parentally bereaved gender- and age-matched living controls. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. Bereaved offspring with low social support, indicated by offspring's single status and repeated changes in marital status and residence, had a significantly increased suicide risk compared to bereaved offspring with high social support. Moreover, low socioeconomic status, having an immigration background, having lost both parents and loss due to suicide significantly increased suicide risk. Several variables relevant to bereavement outcome, such as coping mechanisms and the quality of the parent-offspring relationship are impossible to examine by utilizing population registers. Moreover, the availability of data did not enable the measurement of marital stability and residence stability across the entire lifespan for older individuals. Healthcare professionals should be aware of the additional risk posed by the identified risk factors and incorporate this knowledge into existing practice and risk assessment in order to identify individuals at risk and effectively target bereaved family and friends for prevention and intervention programs. Ideal follow-up for bereaved families should include a specific focus on mobilizing social support. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Inequity aversion and the evolution of cooperation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Asrar; Karlapalem, Kamalakar

    2014-02-01

    Evolution of cooperation is a widely studied problem in biology, social science, economics, and artificial intelligence. Most of the existing approaches that explain cooperation rely on some notion of direct or indirect reciprocity. These reciprocity based models assume agents recognize their partner and know their previous interactions, which requires advanced cognitive abilities. In this paper we are interested in developing a model that produces cooperation without requiring any explicit memory of previous game plays. Our model is based on the notion of inequity aversion, a concept introduced within behavioral economics, whereby individuals care about payoff equality in outcomes. Here we explore the effect of using income inequality to guide partner selection and interaction. We study our model by considering both the well-mixed and the spatially structured population and present the conditions under which cooperation becomes dominant. Our results support the hypothesis that inequity aversion promotes cooperative relationship among nonkin.

  17. Cervical HSV-2 infection causes cervical remodeling and increases risk for ascending infection and preterm birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Devin; Poncil, Sharra; Patterson, Amanda

    2017-01-01

    Preterm birth (PTB), or birth before 37 weeks gestation, is the leading cause of neonatal mortality worldwide. Cervical viral infections have been established as risk factors for PTB in women, although the mechanism leading to increased risk is unknown. Using a mouse model of pregnancy, we determined that intra-vaginal HSV2 infection caused increased rates of preterm birth following an intra-vaginal bacterial infection. HSV2 infection resulted in histological changes in the cervix mimicking cervical ripening, including significant collagen remodeling and increased hyaluronic acid synthesis. Viral infection also caused aberrant expression of estrogen and progesterone receptor in the cervical epithelium. Further analysis using human ectocervical cells demonstrated a role for Src kinase in virus-mediated changes in estrogen receptor and hyaluronic acid expression. In conclusion, HSV2 affects proteins involved in tissue hormone responsiveness, causes significant changes reminiscent of premature cervical ripening, and increases risk of preterm birth. Studies such as this improve our chances of identifying clinical interventions in the future. PMID:29190738

  18. Leisure-time running reduces all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Duck-Chul; Pate, Russell R; Lavie, Carl J; Sui, Xuemei; Church, Timothy S; Blair, Steven N

    2014-08-05

    Although running is a popular leisure-time physical activity, little is known about the long-term effects of running on mortality. The dose-response relations between running, as well as the change in running behaviors over time, and mortality remain uncertain. We examined the associations of running with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks in 55,137 adults, 18 to 100 years of age (mean age 44 years). Running was assessed on a medical history questionnaire by leisure-time activity. During a mean follow-up of 15 years, 3,413 all-cause and 1,217 cardiovascular deaths occurred. Approximately 24% of adults participated in running in this population. Compared with nonrunners, runners had 30% and 45% lower adjusted risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, with a 3-year life expectancy benefit. In dose-response analyses, the mortality benefits in runners were similar across quintiles of running time, distance, frequency, amount, and speed, compared with nonrunners. Weekly running even benefits, with 29% and 50% lower risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, compared with never-runners. Running, even 5 to 10 min/day and at slow speeds benefits. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. A Representation Theorem for Guilt Aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Jensen, Martin Kaae; Kozlovskaya, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Guilt aversion has been shown to play an important role in economic decision-making. In this paper, we take an axiomatic approach to guilt by deducing a utility representation from a list of easily interpretable assumptions on an agent's preferences. It turns out that our logarithmic representation can mitigate the problem of multiplicity of equilibria to which psychological games are prone. We apply the model in three well-known games and show that its predictions are consistent with experim...

  20. Inflation Aversion and the Optimal Inflation Tax

    OpenAIRE

    Gaowang Wang; Heng-fu Zou

    2011-01-01

    The optimal inflation tax is reexamined in the framework of dynamic second best economy populated by individuals with inflation aversion. A simple formula for the optimal inflation rate is derived. Different from the literature, it is shown that if the marginal excess burden of other distorting taxes approaches zero, Friedman's rule for optimum quantity of money is not optimal, and the optimal inflation tax is negative; if the marginal excess burden of other taxes is nonzero, the optimal infl...

  1. The Loss Aversion / Narrow Framing Approach to the Equity Premium Puzzle

    OpenAIRE

    Nicholas Barberis; Ming Huang

    2006-01-01

    We review a recent approach to understanding the equity premium puzzle. The key elements of this approach are loss aversion and narrow framing, two well-known features of decision-making under risk in experimental settings. In equilibrium, models that incorporate these ideas can generate a large equity premium and a low and stable risk-free rate, even when consumption growth is smooth and only weakly correlated with the stock market. Moreover, they can do so for parameter values that correspo...

  2. [Sudden Cardiac Death of Young Persons: Risk Factors, Causes, Morphological Equivalents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilova, M A; Mamedov, M N

    2015-01-01

    The article contains literature review on the problem of causes of sudden cardiac death (SCD) among young people as well as results of author's own retrospective study of deaths of persons before 39 years based on forensic autopsies performed during 10 year period. The study of structure and dynamics of causes of death, its risk factors and the role of connective tissue dysplasia in development of terminal symptomocomlexes allowed to establish that main mechanism of SCD in young people was arrhythmogenic developing as a response to provoking factors--physical effort, psychoemotional stress, consumption of light alcoholic beverages.

  3. Excitation of lateral habenula neurons as a neural mechanism underlying ethanol-induced conditioned taste aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tandon, Shashank; Keefe, Kristen A; Taha, Sharif A

    2017-02-15

    The lateral habenula (LHb) has been implicated in regulation of drug-seeking behaviours through aversion-mediated learning. In this study, we recorded neuronal activity in the LHb of rats during an operant task before and after ethanol-induced conditioned taste aversion (CTA) to saccharin. Ethanol-induced CTA caused significantly higher baseline firing rates in LHb neurons, as well as elevated firing rates in response to cue presentation, lever press and saccharin taste. In a separate cohort of rats, we found that bilateral LHb lesions blocked ethanol-induced CTA. Our results strongly suggest that excitation of LHb neurons is required for ethanol-induced CTA, and point towards a mechanism through which LHb firing may regulate voluntary ethanol consumption. Ethanol, like other drugs of abuse, has both rewarding and aversive properties. Previous work suggests that sensitivity to ethanol's aversive effects negatively modulates voluntary alcohol intake and thus may be important in vulnerability to developing alcohol use disorders. We previously found that rats with lesions of the lateral habenula (LHb), which is implicated in aversion-mediated learning, show accelerated escalation of voluntary ethanol consumption. To understand neural encoding in the LHb contributing to ethanol-induced aversion, we recorded neural firing in the LHb of freely behaving, water-deprived rats before and after an ethanol-induced (1.5 g kg -1 20% ethanol, i.p.) conditioned taste aversion (CTA) to saccharin taste. Ethanol-induced CTA strongly decreased motivation for saccharin in an operant task to obtain the tastant. Comparison of LHb neural firing before and after CTA induction revealed four main differences in firing properties. First, baseline firing after CTA induction was significantly higher. Second, firing evoked by cues signalling saccharin availability shifted from a pattern of primarily inhibition before CTA to primarily excitation after CTA induction. Third, CTA induction reduced

  4. Regional Variations in the Risk and Severity of Ciguatera Caused by Eating Moray Eels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Thomas Y K

    2017-06-26

    Moray eels ( Gymnothorax species) from tropical waters have long been known to be high-risk species, and the consumption of particularly the viscera or ungutted eels can result in severe ciguatera (known as Gymnothorax or moray eel poisoning), characterized by prominent neurological features. In this review, the main objective was to describe the risk and severity of ciguatera caused by eating moray eels in different parts of the world. Moray eels can accumulate very high ciguatoxin (CTX) levels in the flesh and particularly the liver. Therefore, even the smaller ones can be toxic and the consumption of an average portion (particularly liver) can result in severe or fatal ciguatera. Moray eels (particularly when ungutted) must never be served in gatherings since they can cause mass poisoning because of their large sizes and high CTX levels. Apart from regulatory measures restricting or excluding access, the public should be repeatedly warned to avoid eating moray eels.

  5. Regional Variations in the Risk and Severity of Ciguatera Caused by Eating Moray Eels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Y. K. Chan

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Moray eels (Gymnothorax species from tropical waters have long been known to be high-risk species, and the consumption of particularly the viscera or ungutted eels can result in severe ciguatera (known as Gymnothorax or moray eel poisoning, characterized by prominent neurological features. In this review, the main objective was to describe the risk and severity of ciguatera caused by eating moray eels in different parts of the world. Moray eels can accumulate very high ciguatoxin (CTX levels in the flesh and particularly the liver. Therefore, even the smaller ones can be toxic and the consumption of an average portion (particularly liver can result in severe or fatal ciguatera. Moray eels (particularly when ungutted must never be served in gatherings since they can cause mass poisoning because of their large sizes and high CTX levels. Apart from regulatory measures restricting or excluding access, the public should be repeatedly warned to avoid eating moray eels.

  6. Regional Variations in the Risk and Severity of Ciguatera Caused by Eating Moray Eels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Thomas Y. K.

    2017-01-01

    Moray eels (Gymnothorax species) from tropical waters have long been known to be high-risk species, and the consumption of particularly the viscera or ungutted eels can result in severe ciguatera (known as Gymnothorax or moray eel poisoning), characterized by prominent neurological features. In this review, the main objective was to describe the risk and severity of ciguatera caused by eating moray eels in different parts of the world. Moray eels can accumulate very high ciguatoxin (CTX) levels in the flesh and particularly the liver. Therefore, even the smaller ones can be toxic and the consumption of an average portion (particularly liver) can result in severe or fatal ciguatera. Moray eels (particularly when ungutted) must never be served in gatherings since they can cause mass poisoning because of their large sizes and high CTX levels. Apart from regulatory measures restricting or excluding access, the public should be repeatedly warned to avoid eating moray eels. PMID:28672845

  7. Investors’ Risk Preference Characteristics Based on Different Reference Point

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fenghua Wen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking the stock market as a whole object, we assume that prior losses and gains are two different factors that can influence risk preference separately. The two factors are introduced as separate explanatory variables into the time-varying GARCH-M (TVRA-GARCH-M model. Then, we redefine prior losses and gains by selecting different reference point to study investors’ time-varying risk preference. The empirical evidence shows that investors’ risk preference is time varying and is influenced by previous outcomes; the stock market as a whole exhibits house money effect; that is, prior gains can decrease investors’ risk aversion while prior losses increase their risk aversion. Besides, different reference points selected by investors will cause different valuation of prior losses and gains, thus affecting investors’ risk preference.

  8. All-Cause Mortality Risk of Metabolically Healthy Obese Individuals in NHANES III

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Durward

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mortality risk across metabolic health-by-BMI categories in NHANES-III was examined. Metabolic health was defined as: (1 homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR <2.5; (2 ≤2 Adult Treatment Panel (ATP III metabolic syndrome criteria; (3 combined definition using ≤1 of the following: HOMA-IR ≥1.95 (or diabetes medications, triglycerides ≥1.7 mmol/L, HDL-C <1.04 mmol/L (males or <1.30 mmol/L (females, LDL-C ≥2.6 mmol/L, and total cholesterol ≥5.2 mmol/L (or cholesterol-lowering medications. Hazard ratios (HR for all-cause mortality were estimated with Cox regression models. Nonpregnant women and men were included (n=4373, mean ± SD, age 37.1±10.9 years, BMI 27.3±5.8 kg/m2, 49.4% female. Only 40 of 1160 obese individuals were identified as MHO by all definitions. MHO groups had superior levels of clinical risk factors compared to unhealthy individuals but inferior levels compared to healthy lean groups. There was increased risk of all-cause mortality in metabolically unhealthy obese participants regardless of definition (HOMA-IR HR 2.07 (CI 1.3–3.4, P<0.01; ATP-III HR 1.98 (CI 1.4–2.9, P<0.001; combined definition HR 2.19 (CI 1.3–3.8, P<0.01. MHO participants were not significantly different from healthy lean individuals by any definition. While MHO individuals are not at significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality, their clinical risk profile is worse than that of metabolically healthy lean individuals.

  9. Patients' Risk of Causing Traffic Violations and Traffic Accidents while Driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šestan, Nevenka; Dodič Fikfak, Metoda; Balantič, Zvone

    2017-09-01

    This study examines whether drivers suffering from epilepsy, chronic alcoholism and/or hazardous drinking, psychoactive substance abuse, other diseases of the nervous system, mental and behavioural disorders, cardiovascular diseases, severe diabetes, and severe eye diseases are at a greater risk of causing traffic accidents and traffic violations than drivers that cause accidents and violations without these diagnoses. A case control study was carried out. The cases were drivers checked by a special medical committee in the period observed suffering from the diseases listed above. Matched controls were taken from the cohort of those that caused accidents and violations during the same period observed. The descriptive statistics were followed by calculation of correlations, t-tests and χ 2 , and the odds ratio. Drivers with referrals for diseases of the nervous system are five times more likely to cause a traffic accident compared to controls (OR=5.18; 95% CI=2.59-10.34); in addition, a high risk is associated with drivers with mental and behavioural disorders (OR=3.64; 95% CI=1.91-6.94), drivers with epilepsy (OR=1.99; 95% CI=1.01-3.92), and drivers addicted to alcohol (OR=1.71; 95% CI=1.01-2.89). Drivers suffering from addiction, a disease of the nervous system, or epilepsy are more likely to cause a traffic accident, which is a contribution to the inconclusive findings of previous studies. The multiple reasons for risks of patients suffering from mental and behavioural disorders need to be further investigated. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

  10. Subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with increased risk for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Fen-Yu; Lin, Wen-Yuan; Lin, Cheng-Chieh; Lee, Long-Teng; Li, Tsai-Chung; Sung, Pei-Kun; Huang, Kuo-Chin

    2012-08-21

    This study sought to evaluate the relationship between subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. SCH may increase the risks of hypercholesterolemia and atherosclerosis. The associations between SCH and all-cause or CVD mortality are uncertain, on the basis of the results of previous studies. A baseline cohort of 115,746 participants without a history of thyroid disease, ≥20 years of age, was recruited in Taiwan. SCH was defined as a serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) level of 5.0 to 19.96 mIU/l with normal total thyroxine concentrations. Euthyroidism was defined as a serum TSH level of 0.47 to 4.9 mIU/l. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of death from all-cause and CVD for adults with SCH during a 10-year follow-up period. There were 3,669 deaths during the follow-up period; 680 deaths were due to CVD. Compared with subjects with euthyroidism, after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking, alcohol consumption, betel nut chewing, physical activity, income, and education level, the RRs (95% confidence interval) of deaths from all-cause and CVD among subjects with SCH were 1.30 (1.02 to 1.66), and 1.68 (1.02 to 2.76), respectively. Adult Taiwanese with SCH had an increased risk for all-cause mortality and CVD death. Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Nongenetic causes of childhood cancers: evidence from international variation, time trends, and risk factor studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunin, Greta R.

    2004-01-01

    Ionizing radiation and a variety of genetic conditions are thought to explain 5-10% of childhood cancers. Infection with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in parts of Africa and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) increase the risk of Burkitt's lymphoma and Kaposi's sarcoma, respectively. Other risk factors have not been conclusively identified. A review of the data on international variation in incidence, recent changes in incidence, and risk factors suggests that many childhood cancers are likely to have nongenetic causes. The pattern of international variation and associations with surrogates of infection suggest an infectious etiology for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, although no agent has been identified. The biologic plausibility is strong that maternal consumption of food containing DNA topoisomerase II inhibitors may increase the risk of acute myeloid leukemia, although the data are limited now. For brain tumors, cured meats, polyomaviruses, and farm exposures may have etiologic roles. Changes in the incidence and characteristics of children with hepatoblastoma as well as risk factor studies suggest a role for an exposure of very low birth weight babies. High birth weight, tea or coffee consumption, and certain paternal occupations have shown some consistency in their association with Wilms' tumor. For most of the other cancers, very few epidemiologic studies have been conducted, so it is not surprising that nongenetic risk factors have not been detected. The most important difference between the cancers for which there are good etiologic clues and those for which there are not may be the number of relevant studies

  12. Cardiovascular risk factors cause premature rarefaction of the collateral circulation and greater ischemic tissue injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Scott M; Zhang, Hua; Maeda, Nobuyo; Doerschuk, Claire M; Faber, James E

    2015-07-01

    Collaterals lessen tissue injury in occlusive disease. However, aging causes progressive decline in their number and smaller diameters in those that remain (collateral rarefaction), beginning at 16 months of age in mice (i.e., middle age), and worse ischemic injury-effects that are accelerated in even 3-month-old eNOS(-/-) mice. These findings have found indirect support in recent human studies. We sought to determine whether other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) associated with endothelial dysfunction cause collateral rarefaction, investigate possible mechanisms, and test strategies for prevention. Mice with nine different models of CVRFs of 4-12 months of age were assessed for number and diameter of native collaterals in skeletal muscle and brain and for collateral-dependent perfusion and ischemic injury after arterial occlusion. Hypertension caused collateral rarefaction whose severity increased with duration and level of hypertension, accompanied by greater hindlimb ischemia and cerebral infarct volume. Chronic treatment of wild-type mice with L-N (G)-nitro-arginine methylester caused similar rarefaction and worse ischemic injury which were not prevented by lowering arterial pressure with hydralazine. Metabolic syndrome, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and obesity also caused collateral rarefaction. Neither chronic statin treatment nor exercise training lessened hypertension-induced rarefaction. Chronic CVRF presence caused collateral rarefaction and worse ischemic injury, even at relatively young ages. Rarefaction was associated with increased proliferation rate of collateral endothelial cells, effects that may promote accelerated endothelial cell senescence.

  13. Causes and remedies for the dominant risk factors in Enterprise System implementation projects: the consultants' perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lech, Przemysław

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the causes of the dominant risk factors, affecting Enterprise System implementation projects and propose remedies for those risk factors from the perspective of implementation consultants. The study used a qualitative research strategy, based on e-mail interviews, semi-structured personal interviews with consultants and participant observation during implementation projects. The main contribution of this paper is that it offers viable indications of how to mitigate the dominant risk factors. These indications were grouped into the following categories: stable project scope, smooth communication supported by the project management, dedicated, competent and decision-making client team, competent and engaged consultant project manager, schedule and budget consistent with the project scope, use of methodology and procedures, enforced and enabled by the project managers, competent and dedicated consultants. A detailed description is provided for each category.

  14. Risk factors for automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving in obstructive sleep apnea syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arita, Aki; Sasanabe, Ryujiro; Hasegawa, Rika; Nomura, Atsuhiko; Hori, Reiko; Mano, Mamiko; Konishi, Noriyuki; Shiomi, Toshiaki

    2015-12-01

    We examined the risk factors for automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving in subjects with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). We asked licensed drivers with history of snoring and excessive daytime sleepiness who had undergone polysomnography (PSG) at the Department of Sleep Medicine/Sleep Disorders Center at Aichi Medical University Hospital to complete the questionnaires on accidents caused by falling asleep while driving. As a subjective measure of sleepiness, we used the Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS). Based on PSG results, 2387 subjects diagnosed with OSAS were divided into three groups according to apnea-hypopnea index (AHI): mild-to-moderate (5 ≤ AHI accidents in the past 5 years due to falling asleep. Our multivariate analysis suggests that scores on the ESS and patient-reported frequency of feeling drowsy while regular driving and working are related to automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving.

  15. Coordinating a Supply Chain with a Loss-Averse Retailer under Yield and Demand Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiwei Luo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the channel coordination of a supply chain (SC consisting of a loss-averse retailer and a risk-neutral supplier under yield and demand uncertainties. Three existing contracts are analyzed. Our results demonstrate that the buyback (BB and quantity flexibility (QF contracts can not only coordinate the supply chain but also lead to Pareto improvement for each player, while the wholesale price (WP contract fails to coordinate the chain due to the effects of double marginalization and risk preference. For comparison, a chain with a risk-neutral retailer is also analyzed. Furthermore, numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the coordination contracts, and the impacts of loss aversion and random yield on the decision-making behaviors and system performance are then discussed.

  16. The preventable causes of death in the United States: comparative risk assessment of dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goodarz Danaei

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the number of deaths caused by risk factors is needed for health policy and priority setting. Our aim was to estimate the mortality effects of the following 12 modifiable dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors in the United States (US using consistent and comparable methods: high blood glucose, low-density lipoprotein (LDL cholesterol, and blood pressure; overweight-obesity; high dietary trans fatty acids and salt; low dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids, omega-3 fatty acids (seafood, and fruits and vegetables; physical inactivity; alcohol use; and tobacco smoking.We used data on risk factor exposures in the US population from nationally representative health surveys and disease-specific mortality statistics from the National Center for Health Statistics. We obtained the etiological effects of risk factors on disease-specific mortality, by age, from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies that had adjusted (i for major potential confounders, and (ii where possible for regression dilution bias. We estimated the number of disease-specific deaths attributable to all non-optimal levels of each risk factor exposure, by age and sex. In 2005, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure were responsible for an estimated 467,000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 436,000-500,000 and 395,000 (372,000-414,000 deaths, accounting for about one in five or six deaths in US adults. Overweight-obesity (216,000; 188,000-237,000 and physical inactivity (191,000; 164,000-222,000 were each responsible for nearly 1 in 10 deaths. High dietary salt (102,000; 97,000-107,000, low dietary omega-3 fatty acids (84,000; 72,000-96,000, and high dietary trans fatty acids (82,000; 63,000-97,000 were the dietary risks with the largest mortality effects. Although 26,000 (23,000-40,000 deaths from ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and diabetes were averted by current alcohol use, they were outweighed by 90,000 (88,000-94,000 deaths from

  17. Risk factors for fatal candidemia caused by Candida albicans and non-albicans Candida species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tang Ran-Bin

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Invasive fungal infections, such as candidemia, caused by Candida species have been increasing. Candidemia is not only associated with a high mortality (30% to 40% but also extends the length of hospital stay and increases the costs of medical care. Sepsis caused by Candida species is clinically indistinguishable from bacterial infections. Although, the clinical presentations of the patients with candidemia caused by Candida albicans and non-albicans Candida species (NAC are indistinguishable, the susceptibilities to antifungal agents of these species are different. In this study, we attempted to identify the risk factors for candidemia caused by C. albicans and NAC in the hope that this may guide initial empiric therapy. Methods A retrospective chart review was conducted during 1996 to 1999 at the Veterans General Hospital-Taipei. Results There were 130 fatal cases of candidemia, including 68 patients with C. albicans and 62 with NAC. Candidemia was the most likely cause of death in 55 of the 130 patients (42.3 %. There was no significant difference in the distribution of Candida species between those died of candidemia and those died of underlying conditions. Patients who had one of the following conditions were more likely to have C. albicans, age ≧ 65 years, immunosuppression accounted to prior use of steroids, leukocytosis, in the intensive care unit (ICU, and intravascular and urinary catheters. Patients who had undergone cancer chemotherapy often appeared less critically ill and were more likely to have NAC. Conclusion Clinical and epidemiological differences in the risk factors between candidemia caused by C. albicans and NAC may provide helpful clues to initiate empiric therapy for patients infected with C. albicans versus NAC.

  18. Risk factors for fatal candidemia caused by Candida albicans and non-albicans Candida species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Ming-Fang; Yang, Yun-Liang; Yao, Tzy-Jyun; Lin, Chin-Yu; Liu, Jih-Shin; Tang, Ran-Bin; Yu, Kwok-Woon; Fan, Yu-Hua; Hsieh, Kai-Sheng; Ho, Monto; Lo, Hsiu-Jung

    2005-01-01

    Background Invasive fungal infections, such as candidemia, caused by Candida species have been increasing. Candidemia is not only associated with a high mortality (30% to 40%) but also extends the length of hospital stay and increases the costs of medical care. Sepsis caused by Candida species is clinically indistinguishable from bacterial infections. Although, the clinical presentations of the patients with candidemia caused by Candida albicans and non-albicans Candida species (NAC) are indistinguishable, the susceptibilities to antifungal agents of these species are different. In this study, we attempted to identify the risk factors for candidemia caused by C. albicans and NAC in the hope that this may guide initial empiric therapy. Methods A retrospective chart review was conducted during 1996 to 1999 at the Veterans General Hospital-Taipei. Results There were 130 fatal cases of candidemia, including 68 patients with C. albicans and 62 with NAC. Candidemia was the most likely cause of death in 55 of the 130 patients (42.3 %). There was no significant difference in the distribution of Candida species between those died of candidemia and those died of underlying conditions. Patients who had one of the following conditions were more likely to have C. albicans, age ≧ 65 years, immunosuppression accounted to prior use of steroids, leukocytosis, in the intensive care unit (ICU), and intravascular and urinary catheters. Patients who had undergone cancer chemotherapy often appeared less critically ill and were more likely to have NAC. Conclusion Clinical and epidemiological differences in the risk factors between candidemia caused by C. albicans and NAC may provide helpful clues to initiate empiric therapy for patients infected with C. albicans versus NAC. PMID:15813977

  19. Are team members less inequality averse than individual decision makers?

    OpenAIRE

    Haoran He; Marie Claire Villeval

    2014-01-01

    révision Août 2015; We compare inequality aversion in individuals and teams by means of both within- and between-subject experimental designs, and we investigate how teams aggregate individual preferences. We find that team decisions reveal less inequality aversion than individual initial proposals in team decision-making. However, teams are no more selfish than individuals who decide in isolation. Individuals express strategically more inequality aversion in their initial proposals in team d...

  20. Are group members less inequality averse than individual decision makers?

    OpenAIRE

    He, Haoran; Villeval, Marie Claire

    2017-01-01

    International audience; We compare inequality aversion in individuals and teams by means of both within- and between-subject experimental designs, and we investigate how teams aggregate individual preferences. We find that team decisions reveal less inequality aversion than individual initial proposals in team decision-making. However, teams are no more selfish than individuals who decide in isolation. Individuals express strategically more inequality aversion in their initial proposals in te...

  1. Serotonin affects association of aversive outcomes to past actions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Saori C; Shishida, Kazuhiro; Schweighofer, Nicolas; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Yamawaki, Shigeto; Doya, Kenji

    2009-12-16

    Impairment in the serotonergic system has been linked to action choices that are less advantageous in a long run. Such impulsive choices can be caused by a deficit in linking a given reward or punishment with past actions. Here, we tested the effect of manipulation of the serotonergic system by tryptophan depletion and loading on learning the association of current rewards and punishments with past actions. We observed slower associative learning when actions were followed by a delayed punishment in the low serotonergic condition. Furthermore, a model-based analysis revealed a positive correlation between the length of the memory trace for aversive choices and subjects' blood tryptophan concentration. Our results suggest that the serotonergic system regulates the time scale of retrospective association of punishments to past actions.

  2. At-Risk Student Averse: Risk Management and Accountability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasquez Heilig, Julian; Young, Michelle; Williams, Amy

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The prevailing theory of action underlying accountability is that holding schools and students accountable will increase educational output. While accountability's theory of action intuitively seemed plausible, at the point of No Child Left Behind's national implementation, little empirical research was available to either support or…

  3. Mechanisms of radiation-induced conditioned taste aversion learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabin, B.M.; Hunt, W.A.

    1986-01-01

    The literature on taste aversion learning is reviewed and discussed, with particular emphasis on those studies that have used exposure to ionizing radiation as an unconditioned stimulus to produce a conditioned taste aversion. The primary aim of the review is to attempt to define the mechanisms that lead to the initiation of the taste aversion response following exposure to ionizing radiation. Studies using drug treatments to produce a taste aversion have been included to the extent that they are relevant to understanding the mechanisms by which exposure to ionizing radiation can affect the behavior of the organism. 141 references

  4. Risk factors and causes of sudden noncardiac death: A nationwide cohort study in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risgaard, Bjarke; Lynge, Thomas Hadberg; Wissenberg, Mads; Jabbari, Reza; Glinge, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Haunsø, Stig; Winkel, Bo Gregers; Tfelt-Hansen, Jacob

    2015-05-01

    On the performance of an autopsy, sudden deaths may be divided into 2 classifications: (1) sudden cardiac deaths and (2) sudden noncardiac deaths (SNCDs). Families of SNCD victims should not be followed up as a means of searching for cardiac disease. The purpose of this study was to report the risk factors and causes of SNCD. We conducted a retrospective, nationwide study including all deaths between 2000 and 2006 of individuals aged 1-35 years and all deaths between 2007 and 2009 of individuals aged 1-49 years. Two physicians identified all sudden death cases through review of death certificates. Autopsy reports were collected. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify both clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with SNCD. We identified 1039 autopsied cases of sudden death, of which 286 (28%) were classified as SNCD. The median age in the SNCD death population was 32 years. Increasing age was inversely associated with SNCD (odds ratio [OR] 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-0.98). Female sex, in-hospital location, and the absence of cardiac comorbidities were positively associated with SNCD (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.3; OR 3.0, 95% CI 2.0-4.4; and OR 4.3, 95% CI 2.5-7.4, respectively). The most common cause of SNCD was pulmonary disease (n = 115 [40%]). Sudden death among individuals aged caused by noncardiac diseases in 28% of cases. Risk factors were female sex, age, and the absence of cardiac comorbidities. These data may guide future strategies for the follow-up of family members of nonautopsied sudden death victims, improve risk stratification, and influence public health strategies. Copyright © 2015 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Emergency Physician Attitudes, Preferences, and Risk Tolerance for Stroke as a Potential Cause of Dizziness Symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamata V. Kene

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: We evaluated emergency physicians’ (EP current perceptions, practice, and attitudes towards evaluating stroke as a cause of dizziness among emergency department patients. Methods: We administered a survey to all EPs in a large integrated healthcare delivery system. The survey included clinical vignettes, perceived utility of historical and exam elements, attitudes about the value of and requisite post-test probability of a clinical prediction rule for dizziness. We calculated descriptive statistics and post-test probabilities for such a clinical prediction rule. Results: The response rate was 68% (366/535. Respondents’ median practice tenure was eight years (37% female, 92% emergency medicine board certified. Symptom quality and typical vascular risk factors increased suspicion for stroke as a cause of dizziness. Most respondents reported obtaining head computed tomography (CT (74%. Nearly all respondents used and felt confident using cranial nerve and limb strength testing. A substantial minority of EPs used the Epley maneuver (49% and HINTS (head-thrust test, gaze-evoked nystagmus, and skew deviation testing (30%; however, few EPs reported confidence in these tests’ bedside application (35% and 16%, respectively. Respondents favorably viewed applying a properly validated clinical prediction rule for assessment of immediate and 30-day stroke risk, but indicated it would have to reduce stroke risk to <0.5% to be clinically useful. Conclusion: EPs report relying on symptom quality, vascular risk factors, simple physical exam elements, and head CT to diagnose stroke as the cause of dizziness, but would find a validated clinical prediction rule for dizziness helpful. A clinical prediction rule would have to achieve a 0.5% post-test stroke probability for acceptability.

  6. Causes of death from the randomized CoreValve US Pivotal High-Risk Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudiani, Vincent; Deeb, G Michael; Popma, Jeffrey J; Adams, David H; Gleason, Thomas G; Conte, John V; Zorn, George L; Hermiller, James B; Chetcuti, Stan; Mumtaz, Mubashir; Yakubov, Steven J; Kleiman, Neal S; Huang, Jian; Reardon, Michael J

    2017-06-01

    Explore causes and timing of death from the CoreValve US Pivotal High-Risk Trial. An independent clinical events committee adjudicated causes of death, followed by post hoc hierarchical classification. Baseline characteristics, early outcomes, and causes of death were evaluated for 3 time periods (selected based on threshold of surgical 30-day mortality and on the differences in the continuous hazard between the 2 groups): early (0-30 days), recovery (31-120 days), and late (121-365 days). Differences in the rate of death were evident only during the recovery period (31-120 days), whereas 15 patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) (4.0%) and 27 surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) patients (7.9%) died (P = .025). This mortality difference was largely driven by higher rates of technical failure, surgical complications, and lack of recovery following surgery. From 0 to 30 days, the causes of death were more technical failures in the TAVR group and lack of recovery in the SAVR group. Mortality in the late period (121-365 days) in both arms was most commonly ascribed to other circumstances, comprising death from medical complications from comorbid disease. Mortality at 1 year in the CoreValve US Pivotal High-Risk Trial favored TAVR over SAVR. The major contributor was that more SAVR patients died during the recovery period (31-121 days), likely affected by the overall influence of physical stress associated with surgery. Similar rates of technical failure and complications were observed between the 2 groups. This suggests that early TAVR results can improve with technical refinements and that high-risk surgical patients will benefit from reducing complications. Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Trichinellosis Caused by Consumption of Pork Meat Sausages in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sequeira, G J; Zbrun, M V; Soto, L P; Astesana, D M; Blajman, J E; Rosmini, M R; Frizzo, L S; Signorini, M L

    2016-03-01

    In Argentina, there are three known species of genus Trichinella; however, Trichinella spiralis is most commonly associated with domestic pigs and it is recognized as the main cause of human trichinellosis by the consumption of products made with raw or insufficiently cooked pork meat. In some areas of Argentina, this disease is endemic and it is thus necessary to develop a more effective programme of prevention and control. Here, we developed a quantitative risk assessment of human trichinellosis following pork meat sausage consumption, which may be used to identify the stages with greater impact on the probability of acquiring the disease. The quantitative model was designed to describe the conditions in which the meat is produced, processed, transported, stored, sold and consumed in Argentina. The model predicted a risk of human trichinellosis of 4.88 × 10(-6) and an estimated annual number of trichinellosis cases of 109. The risk of human trichinellosis was sensitive to the number of Trichinella larvae that effectively survived the storage period (r = 0.89), the average probability of infection (PPinf ) (r = 0.44) and the storage time (Storage) (r = 0.08). This model allowed assessing the impact of different factors influencing the risk of acquiring trichinellosis. The model may thus help to select possible strategies to reduce the risk in the chain of by-products of pork production. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  8. How to Make Loss Aversion Disappear and Reverse: Tests of the Decision by Sampling Origin of Loss Aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Walasek, Lukasz; Stewart, Neil

    2014-01-01

    One of the most robust empirical findings in the behavioral sciences is loss aversion—the finding that losses loom larger than gains. We offer a new psychological explanation of the origins of loss aversion in which loss aversion emerges from differences in the distribution of gains and losses people experience. In 4 experiments, we tested this proposition by manipulating the range of gains and losses that individuals saw during the process of eliciting their loss aversion. We were able to fi...

  9. Loss aversion and duration of residence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip S. Morrison

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies of internal migration ask who moves, why they move, and what are the consequences - to themselves, their origin, and their destination. By contrast, studies of those who stay for very long durations are less common, despite the fact that most people move relatively infrequently. Objective: We argue that staying is the dominant, preferred state and that moving is simply an adjustment toward a desired state of stability (or equilibrium. The core of our argument, already recognized in the literature, is that migration is risky. However, we extend the argument to loss aversion as developed within prospect theory. Prospect theory posits that existing possessions, including the dwelling and existing commodities, are attributed a value well beyond their purchase price and that this extends the average period of staying among the loss-averse. Methods: Applying prospect theory has several challenges, including measurement of the reference point and potential degrees of gain and loss households face in deciding to change residence, as well as their own degree of loss aversion. The growing number of large panel sets should make it possible to estimate the degree to which endowment effects are likely to extend durations of residence as predicted by prospect theory. Conclusions: Rational expectations models of mobility focus on the changes in the level of consumption of residential services. By contrast, prospect theory focuses on potential gains and losses relative to the existing dwelling - the reference point. As we confront increasing durations of residence in contemporary society, an application of prospect theory is likely to yield important advantages over existing models of mobility and staying.

  10. A note on testing guilt aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bellemare, Charles; Sebald, Alexander Christopher; Suetens, Sigrid

    2017-01-01

    We compare three approaches to test for guilt aversion in two economic experiments. The first approach elicits second-order beliefs using self-reports. The second approach discloses first-order beliefs of matched players to decision makers, which are taken as exogenous second-order beliefs...... of decision makers. The third approach lets decision makers make choices conditional on a sequence of possible first-order beliefs of matched players. We find that the first and third approach generate similar results, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The second approach, however, generates...

  11. Loss aversion is an affective forecasting error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kermer, Deborah A; Driver-Linn, Erin; Wilson, Timothy D; Gilbert, Daniel T

    2006-08-01

    Loss aversion occurs because people expect losses to have greater hedonic impact than gains of equal magnitude. In two studies, people predicted that losses in a gambling task would have greater hedonic impact than would gains of equal magnitude, but when people actually gambled, losses did not have as much of an emotional impact as they predicted. People overestimated the hedonic impact of losses because they underestimated their tendency to rationalize losses and overestimated their tendency to dwell on losses. The asymmetrical impact of losses and gains was thus more a property of affective forecasts than a property of affective experience.

  12. Cause or consequence? Investigating attention bias and self-regulation skills in children at risk for obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehl, Nora; Bergmann, Sarah; Klein, Annette M; Daum, Moritz; von Klitzing, Kai; Horstmann, Annette

    2017-03-01

    Impaired self-regulation, especially in food-specific situations, has been linked to childhood obesity. These deficits may be acquired during the development of obesity rather than being a prerequisite thereof. The current study, hence, focused on an at-risk population versus controls. Normal-weight children of obese and normal-weight parents were tested regarding attentional flexibility, emotion regulation, and inhibitory control. A sample of 50 preschoolers of obese parents (n=25) or normal-weight parents (n=25) participated in this study. Through eye-tracking, attentional bias for food cues was measured during a visual probe task using food and toy images. Emotion regulation was assessed during a distress-evoking task, and inhibitory control was examined through a delay-of-gratification task. Both tasks are standardized and were conducted in non-food contexts. Results showed no significant group differences in overall attentional bias to food images over toy images. However, children of normal-weight parents showed a preference for toy images. Regarding emotion regulation, children in the risk group expressed significantly less overall emotional distress. In addition, less gaze aversion and bodily sadness could be observed in this group. No differences were found for inhibitory control. Findings suggest that general deficits in self-regulation are not yet present in normal-weight children at risk for obesity. Instead, they might develop as a by-product of unhealthy weight gain. Results indicate, however, that children of obese parents are less emotionally expressive compared with children of normal-weight parents. Furthermore, children of normal-weight parents appeared to be more interested in toy images than in food images. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. The number of years lived with obesity and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abdullah, Asnawi; Wolfe, Rory; Stoelwinder, Johannes U

    2011-01-01

    ) of the Framingham Cohort Study were followed up every 2 years from 1948 for up to 48 years. The association between obesity duration and all-cause and cause-specific mortality was analysed using time-dependent Cox models adjusted for body mass index. The role of biological intermediates and chronic diseases...... was also explored. RESULTS: The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality increased as the number of years lived with obesity increased. For those who were obese for 1-4.9, 5-14.9, 15-24.9 and =25 years of the study follow-up period, adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.51 [95% confidence interval...... (CI) 1.27-1.79], 1.94 (95% CI 1.71-2.20), 2.25 (95% CI 1.89-2.67) and 2.52 (95% CI 2.08-3.06), respectively, compared with those who were never obese. A dose-response relation between years of duration of obesity was also clear for all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer and other-cause mortality. For every...

  14. Gestational age at birth and risk of intellectual disability without a common genetic cause.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heuvelman, Hein; Abel, Kathryn; Wicks, Susanne; Gardner, Renee; Johnstone, Edward; Lee, Brian; Magnusson, Cecilia; Dalman, Christina; Rai, Dheeraj

    2017-12-06

    Preterm birth is linked to intellectual disability and there is evidence to suggest post-term birth may also incur risk. However, these associations have not yet been investigated in the absence of common genetic causes of intellectual disability, where risk associated with late delivery may be preventable. We therefore aimed to examine risk of intellectual disability without a common genetic cause across the entire range of gestation, using a matched-sibling design to account for unmeasured confounding by shared familial factors. We conducted a population-based retrospective study using data from the Stockholm Youth Cohort (n = 499,621) and examined associations in a nested cohort of matched outcome-discordant siblings (n = 8034). Risk of intellectual disability was greatest among those born extremely early (adjusted OR 24 weeks  = 14.54 [95% CI 11.46-18.44]), lessening with advancing gestational age toward term (aOR 32 weeks  = 3.59 [3.22-4.01]; aOR 37 weeks  = 1.50 [1.38-1.63]); aOR 38 weeks  = 1.26 [1.16-1.37]; aOR 39 weeks = 1.10 [1.04-1.17]) and increasing with advancing gestational age post-term (aOR 42 weeks  = 1.16 [1.08-1.25]; aOR 43 weeks  = 1.41 [1.21-1.64]; aOR 44 weeks  = 1.71 [1.34-2.18]; aOR 45 weeks  = 2.07 [1.47-2.92]). Associations persisted in a cohort of matched siblings suggesting they were robust against confounding by shared familial traits. Risk of intellectual disability was greatest among children showing evidence of fetal growth restriction, especially when birth occurred before or after term. Birth at non-optimal gestational duration may be linked causally with greater risk of intellectual disability. The mechanisms underlying these associations need to be elucidated as they are relevant to clinical practice concerning elective delivery around term and mitigation of risk in post-term children.

  15. Obesity and vehicle type as risk factors for injury caused by motor vehicle collision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, John P; Griffin, Russell Lee; Sathiakumar, Nalini; McGwin, Gerald

    2014-04-01

    This study sought to describe variations in the risk of motor vehicle collision (MVC) injury and death by occupant body mass index (BMI) class and vehicle type. We hypothesized that the relationship between BMI and the risk of MVC injury or mortality would be modified by vehicle type. This is a retrospective cohort study of occupants involved in MVCs using data from the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network and the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System. Occupants were grouped based on vehicle body style (passenger car, sport utility vehicle, or light truck) and vehicle size (compact or normal, corresponding to below- or above-average curb weight). The relationship between occupant BMI class (underweight, normal weight, overweight, or obese) and risk of injury or mortality was examined for each vehicle type. Odds ratios (ORs) adjusted for various occupant and collision characteristics were estimated. Of an estimated 44 million occupants of MVCs sampled from 2000 to 2009, 37.1% sustained an injury. We limited our analysis to injuries achieving an Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score of 2 or more severe, totaling 17 million injuries. Occupants differed substantially in terms of demographic and collision characteristics. After adjustment for confounding factors, we found that obesity was a risk factor for mortality caused by MVC (OR, 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-2.0). When stratified by vehicle type, we found that obesity was a risk factor for mortality in larger vehicles, including any-sized light trucks (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3-3.5), normal-sized passenger cars (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.3), and normal-sized sports utility vehicles or vans (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0-3.8). Being overweight was a risk factor in any-sized light trucks (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.1). We identified a significant interaction between occupant BMI class and vehicle type in terms of MVC-related mortality risk. Both factors should be taken into account when

  16. Discontinuation of antiplatelet treatment and risk of recurrent stroke and all-cause death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ostergaard, Kamilla; Pottegård, Anton; Hallas, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    use and followed them up for stroke recurrence, or all-cause death. Person-time was classified by antiplatelet drug use into current use, recent use (≤150 days after last use), and non-use (>150 days after last use). Lipid-lowering drug (LLD) use was classified by the same rules. We used Cox......BACKGROUND: We wished to examine the impact of antiplatelet drug discontinuation on recurrent stroke and all-cause mortality. METHODS: We identified a cohort of incident ischaemic stroke patients in a Danish stroke registry, 2007-2011. Using population-based registries we assessed subjects' drug...... proportional hazard models to calculate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of recurrent stroke or death associated with discontinuation of antiplatelet or LLD drugs. RESULTS: Among 4,670 stroke patients followed up for up a median of 1.5 years, 237...

  17. Different clinical features of anaphylaxis according to cause and risk factors for severe reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang-Yoon; Kim, Min-Hye; Cho, Young-Joo

    2018-01-01

    Anaphylaxis is a life-threatening allergic reaction. Several studies reported different anaphylactic reactions according to the causative substances. However, a comparison of anaphylaxis for each cause has not been done. This study was conducted to identify common causes of anaphylaxis, characteristics of anaphylactic reaction for each cause and to analyze the factors related to the severity of the reaction. Medical records of patients who visited the emergency room of Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital from March 2003 to April 2016 and diagnosed with anaphylactic shock were retrospectively reviewed. We compared the clinical features of anaphylaxis according to the cause. In addition, the severity of anaphylaxis was analyzed and contributing factors for severe anaphylaxis were reviewed. A total of 199 patients with anaphylaxis were analyzed. Food was the most common cause (49.7%), followed by drug reaction (36.2%), bee venom (10.1%), and unknown cause (4.0%). Cardiovascular symptoms of syncope and hypotension were more common in drug-induced anaphylaxis. The incidence of severe anaphylaxis was the highest in anaphylaxis due to drugs (54.2%). Urticaria and other skin symptoms were significantly more common in food-induced anaphylaxis. Risk factors for severe anaphylaxis included older age, male, and drug-induced one. Epinephrine treatment of anaphylaxis was done for 69.7% and 56.9% of patients with food-induced and drug-induced anaphylaxis, respectively. More severe anaphylaxis developed with drug treatment and in males. Low rate of epinephrine prescription was also observed. Male patients with drug induced anaphylaxis should be paid more attention. Copyright © 2017 Japanese Society of Allergology. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessment of professional risk caused by heating microclimate in the process of un-derground mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    М. Л. Рудаков

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews the possibility to apply probit-function to assess professional risks of underground mining under conditions of heating microclimate. Operations under conditions of heating microclimate, whose parameters exceed threshold criteria, can lead to dehydration, fainting and heat stroke for mine workers. Basing on the results of medico-biological research on the effects of microclimate on human body, the authors have assessed probabilistic nature of excessive heat accumulation depending on heat stress index.Using Shapiro-Wilk statistics, an assessment has been carried out in order to test correspondence of experimental data on heat accumulation in the human body to the normal law of distribution for different values of heat stress index, measured in the process of underground mining operations under conditions of heating microclimate.The paper justifies construction of a probit-model to assess professional risks caused by overheating for various types of underground mining operations, depending on their intensity.Modeling results have been verified by way of comparison with a currently used deterministic model of body overheating. Taking into account satisfactory convergence of results, the authors suggest using probit-model to assess professional risks of overheating, as this model allows to obtain a continuous dependency between professional risk and heat stress index, which in its own turn facilitates a more justified approach to the selection of measures to upgrade working conditions of personnel.

  19. Uncertainty Analysis on the Health Risk Caused by a Radiological Terror

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Hyojoon; Hwang, Wontae; Kim, Eunhan; Han, Moonhee

    2010-01-01

    Atmospheric dispersion modeling and uncertainty analysis were carried out support the decision making in case of radiological emergency events. The risk caused by inhalation is highly dependent on air concentrations for radionuclides, therefore air monitoring and dispersion modeling have to be performed carefully to reduce the uncertainty of the health risk assessment for the public. When an intentional release of radioactive materials occurs in an urban area, air quality for radioactive materials in the environment is of great importance to take action for countermeasures and environmental risk assessments. Atmospheric modeling is part of the decision making tasks and that it is particularly important for emergency managers as they often need to take actions quickly on very inadequate information. In this study, we assume an 137 Cs explosion of 50 TBq using RDDs in the metropolitan area of Soul, South Korea. California Puff Model is used to calculate an atmospheric dispersion and transport for 137 Cs, and environmental risk analysis is performed using the Monte Carlo method

  20. Risk for colorectal cancer in ulcerative colitis: changes, causes and management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakatos, Peter-Laszlo; Lakatos, Laszlo

    2008-07-07

    The risk of colorectal cancer for any patient with ulcerative colitis is known to be elevated, and is estimated to be 2% after 10 years, 8% after 20 years and 18% after 30 years of disease. Risk factors for cancer include extent and duration of ulcerative colitis, primary sclerosing cholangitis, a family history of sporadic colorectal cancer, severity of histologic bowel inflammation, and in some studies, young age at onset of colitis. In this review, the authors discuss recent epidemiological trends and causes for the observed changes. Population-based studies published within the past 5 years suggest that this risk has decreased over time, despite the low frequency of colectomies. The crude annual incidence rate of colorectal cancer in ulcerative colitis ranges from approximately 0.06% to 0.16% with a relative risk of 1.0-2.75. The exact mechanism for this change is unknown; it may partly be explained by the more widespread use of maintenance therapy and surveillance colonoscopy.

  1. Benzodiazepines and risk of all cause mortality in adults: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patorno, Elisabetta; Glynn, Robert J; Levin, Raisa; Lee, Moa P; Huybrechts, Krista F

    2017-07-06

    Objectives  To evaluate the risk of all cause mortality associated with initiating compared with not initiating benzodiazepines in adults, and to address potential treatment barriers and confounding related to the use of a non-active comparator group. Design  Retrospective cohort study. Setting  Large de-identified US commercial healthcare database (Optum Clinformatics Datamart). Participants  1:1 high dimensional propensity score matched cohort of benzodiazepine initiators, and randomly selected benzodiazepine non-initiators with a medical visit within 14 days of the start of benzodiazepine treatment (n=1 252 988), between July 2004 and December 2013. To address treatment barriers and confounding, patients were required to have filled one or more prescriptions for any medication in the 90 days and 91-180 days before the index date (ie, the date of starting benzodiazepine treatment for initiators and the date of the selected medical visit for benzodiazepine non-initiators) and the high dimensional propensity score was estimated on the basis of more than 300 covariates. Main outcome measure  All cause mortality, determined by linkage with the Social Security Administration Death Master File. Results  Over a six month follow-up period, 5061 and 4691 deaths occurred among high dimensional propensity score matched benzodiazepine initiators versus non-initiators (9.3 v 9.4 events per 1000 person years; hazard ratio 1.00, 95% confidence interval 0.96 to 1.04). A 4% (95% confidence interval 1% to 8%) to 9% (2% to 7%) increase in mortality risk was observed associated with the start of benzodiazepine treatment for follow-ups of 12 and 48 months and in subgroups of younger patients and patients initiating short acting agents. In secondary analyses comparing 1:1 high dimensional propensity score matched patients initiating benzodiazepines with an active comparator, ie, patients starting treatment with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor antidepressants

  2. Understanding the Uncanny: Both Atypical Features and Category Ambiguity Provoke Aversion toward Humanlike Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K. Strait

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Robots intended for social contexts are often designed with explicit humanlike attributes in order to facilitate their reception by (and communication with people. However, observation of an “uncanny valley”—a phenomenon in which highly humanlike entities provoke aversion in human observers—has lead some to caution against this practice. Both of these contrasting perspectives on the anthropomorphic design of social robots find some support in empirical investigations to date. Yet, owing to outstanding empirical limitations and theoretical disputes, the uncanny valley and its implications for human-robot interaction remains poorly understood. We thus explored the relationship between human similarity and people's aversion toward humanlike robots via manipulation of the agents' appearances. To that end, we employed a picture-viewing task (Nagents = 60 to conduct an experimental test (Nparticipants = 72 of the uncanny valley's existence and the visual features that cause certain humanlike robots to be unnerving. Across the levels of human similarity, we further manipulated agent appearance on two dimensions, typicality (prototypic, atypical, and ambiguous and agent identity (robot, person, and measured participants' aversion using both subjective and behavioral indices. Our findings were as follows: (1 Further substantiating its existence, the data show a clear and consistent uncanny valley in the current design space of humanoid robots. (2 Both category ambiguity, and more so, atypicalities provoke aversive responding, thus shedding light on the visual factors that drive people's discomfort. (3 Use of the Negative Attitudes toward Robots Scale did not reveal any significant relationships between people's pre-existing attitudes toward humanlike robots and their aversive responding—suggesting positive exposure and/or additional experience with robots is unlikely to affect the occurrence of an uncanny valley effect in humanoid robotics

  3. Understanding the Uncanny: Both Atypical Features and Category Ambiguity Provoke Aversion toward Humanlike Robots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strait, Megan K; Floerke, Victoria A; Ju, Wendy; Maddox, Keith; Remedios, Jessica D; Jung, Malte F; Urry, Heather L

    2017-01-01

    Robots intended for social contexts are often designed with explicit humanlike attributes in order to facilitate their reception by (and communication with) people. However, observation of an "uncanny valley"-a phenomenon in which highly humanlike entities provoke aversion in human observers-has lead some to caution against this practice. Both of these contrasting perspectives on the anthropomorphic design of social robots find some support in empirical investigations to date. Yet, owing to outstanding empirical limitations and theoretical disputes, the uncanny valley and its implications for human-robot interaction remains poorly understood. We thus explored the relationship between human similarity and people's aversion toward humanlike robots via manipulation of the agents' appearances. To that end, we employed a picture-viewing task ( N agents = 60) to conduct an experimental test ( N participants = 72) of the uncanny valley's existence and the visual features that cause certain humanlike robots to be unnerving. Across the levels of human similarity, we further manipulated agent appearance on two dimensions, typicality (prototypic, atypical, and ambiguous) and agent identity (robot, person), and measured participants' aversion using both subjective and behavioral indices. Our findings were as follows: (1) Further substantiating its existence, the data show a clear and consistent uncanny valley in the current design space of humanoid robots. (2) Both category ambiguity, and more so, atypicalities provoke aversive responding, thus shedding light on the visual factors that drive people's discomfort. (3) Use of the Negative Attitudes toward Robots Scale did not reveal any significant relationships between people's pre-existing attitudes toward humanlike robots and their aversive responding-suggesting positive exposure and/or additional experience with robots is unlikely to affect the occurrence of an uncanny valley effect in humanoid robotics. This work furthers

  4. Some aversive characteristics of centrifugally generated gravity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altman, F.

    1973-01-01

    The effective weight of rats was manipulated by centrifugation. Two effective weight levels were obtained. In three escape avoidance conditions a lever press produced a change from a base level of 2.1 g to a response level of 1.1 g. In a punishment condition a response produced a change from a 1.1 g level to a 2.1 g level and in an extinction condition responses had no effect on the 2.1 g effective weight level present. All changes took 30 sec and were maintained for an additional 10 sec before a return to base level was initiated. When responses occurred closer together than the 40 sec, they delayed the return to base level by 40 sec. This 40 sec interval is referred to as response-contingent-time. The response rate and amount of response-contingent-time served as the data. The results confirmed previous data that centrifugation is aversive. The results are interpreted as indicating that the aversiveness is attributable to the increase in effective weight, and that rats can discriminate the different angular velocity-radius of rotation combinations used.

  5. Does ambiguity aversion survive in experimental asset markets?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Füllbrunn, Sascha; Rau, Holger A.; Weitzel, Utz

    2014-01-01

    Although a number of theoretical studies explain empirical puzzles in finance with ambiguity aversion, it is not a given that individual ambiguity attitudes survive in markets. In fact, despite ample evidence of ambiguity aversion in individual decision making, most studies find no or only limited

  6. Black Faces, White Spaces: Adjusting Self to Manage Aversive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article focuses on conversations in which South Africans speak about their experiences of aversive racism in 'raced' spaces. The article interrogates experiences of aversive racism and argues that, for various reasons, racial segregation and less overt forms of racism remain entrenched in South Africa. Presently, those ...

  7. Aversive Learning and Trait Aggression Influence Retaliatory Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molapour, Tanaz; Lindström, Björn; Olsson, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    In two experiments (n = 35, n = 34), we used a modified fear-conditioning paradigm to investigate the role of aversive learning in retaliatory behavior in social context. Participants first completed an initial aversive learning phase in which the pairing of a neutral conditioned stimulus (CS; i.e., neutral face) with a naturally aversive unconditioned stimulus (US; electric shock) was learned. Then they were given an opportunity to interact (i.e., administer 0-2 shocks) with the same faces again, during a Test phase. In Experiment 2, we used the same paradigm with the addition of online trial-by-trial ratings (e.g., US expectancy and anger) to examine the role of aversive learning, anger, and the learned expectancy of receiving punishment more closely. Our results indicate that learned aversions influenced future retaliation in a social context. In both experiments, participants showed largest skin conductance responses (SCRs) to the faces paired with one or two shocks, demonstrating successful aversive learning. Importantly, participants administered more shocks to the faces paired with the most number of shocks when the opportunity was given during test. Also, our results revealed that aggressive traits (Buss and Perry Aggression scale) were associated with retaliation only toward CSs associated with aversive experiences. These two experiments show that aggressive traits, when paired with aversive learning experiences enhance the likelihood to act anti-socially toward others.

  8. Loss Aversion under Prospect Theory: a Parameter-Free Measurement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Bleichrodt (Han); M. Abdellaoui (Mohammed); C. Paraschiv (Corina)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractA growing body of qualitative evidence shows that loss aversion, a phenomenon formalized in prospect theory, can explain a variety of field and experimental data. Quantifications of loss aversion are, however, hindered by the absence of a general preference-based method to elicit the

  9. Self-Other Decision Making and Loss Aversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polman, Evan

    2012-01-01

    In eight studies, we tested the prediction that making choices for others involves less loss aversion than making choices for the self. We found that loss aversion is significantly lessened among people choosing for others in scenarios describing riskless choice (Study 1), gambling (Studies 2 and 3), and social aspects of life, such as likeably…

  10. Schizophrenia illness severity is associated with reduced loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, James; Buruju, Dheeraj; Perrin, Jennifer S; Reid, Ian C; Steele, J Douglas; Feltovich, Nick

    2017-06-01

    Loss aversion, whereby losses weigh more heavily than equal-sized gains, has been demonstrated in many decision-making settings. Previous research has suggested reduced loss aversion in schizophrenia, but with little evidence of a link between loss aversion and schizophrenia illness severity. In this study, 20 individuals with schizophrenia and 16 control participants, matched by age and sex, played two versions of the Iterated Prisoners' Dilemma, one version with only positive payoffs and another version in which negative payoffs were possible, with the second version being derived from the first by subtracting a constant value from all payoffs. The control group demonstrated significantly lower cooperation rates under negative payoffs, compared with the version with only positive payoffs, indicative of loss aversion. The patient group on average showed no loss aversion response. Moreover, the extent of loss aversion in patients was found to be negatively correlated with schizophrenia illness severity, with less ill patients showing loss aversion more similar to controls. Results were found to be robust to the inclusion of potential confounding factors as covariates within rigorous probit regression analyses. Reduced loss aversion is a feature of schizophrenia and related to illness severity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. The Antimetabolite ara-CTP Blocks Long-Term Memory of Conditioned Taste Aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Jianpeng; Ren, Keqin; Pérez, Javier; Silva, Alcino J.; Peña de Ortiz, Sandra

    2003-01-01

    We examined the hypothesis that processes related to DNA recombination and repair are involved in learning and memory. Rats received intracerebroventricular (icv) infusions of the antimetabolite 1-beta-D-arabinofuranosylcytosine triphosphate (ara-CTP) or its precursor cytosine arabinoside (ara-C) 30 min prior to conditioned taste aversion (CTA) training. Both ara-CTP and ara-C caused significant impairments in long-term memory (LTM) of CTA. Control experiments indicate that the effect of ara-...

  12. Risk and Causes of Death in Patients After Alcohol Septal Ablation for Hypertrophic Obstructive Cardiomyopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veselka, Josef; Zemánek, David; Jahnlová, Denisa; Krejčí, Jan; Januška, Jaroslav; Dabrowski, Maciej; Bartel, Thomas; Tomašov, Pavol

    2015-10-01

    Because the final myocardial scar might be theoretically associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death, the long-term clinical course of patients who undergo alcohol septal ablation (ASA) is still a matter of debate. In this retrospective multicentre study, we report outcomes after ASA, including survival, analysis of causes of deaths, and association between time and cause of death. We enrolled 366 consecutive patients (58 ± 12 years, 54% women) who were treated using ASA and followed-up for 5.1 ± 4.5 years. The in-hospital and 30-day mortality were 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively; the ASA-related morbidity was cause mortality rate was 2.8% per year. The mortality rates of sudden death and sudden death with an appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) discharge were 0.4% and 1% per year, respectively. Patients with sudden death or appropriate ICD discharge experienced these mortality events at younger age than patients who died of other hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy-related causes (60.8 years [range, 52-71.5 years] vs 72.4 years [range, 64.2-75.2 years]; P = 0.048). A total of 292 patients (80%) had an outflow gradient ≤ 30 mm Hg, and 327 patients (89%) were in New York Heart Association class ≤ II at the last clinical check-up. ASA had low procedure-related mortality, with subsequent 1% occurrence of sudden mortality events per year and 2.8% mortality rate per year in the long-term follow-up. Patients with sudden death or ICD discharge experienced the mortality events approximately 1 decade earlier than patients who died from other causes not related to hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Copyright © 2015 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Children do not exhibit ambiguity aversion despite intact familiarity bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Rosa; Brannon, Elizabeth M; Huettel, Scott A

    2014-01-01

    The phenomenon of ambiguity aversion, in which risky gambles with known probabilities are preferred over ambiguous gambles with unknown probabilities, has been thoroughly documented in adults but never measured in children. Here, we use two distinct tasks to investigate ambiguity preferences of children (8- to 9-year-olds) and a comparison group of adults (19- to 27-year-olds). Across three separate measures, we found evidence for significant ambiguity aversion in adults but not in children and for greater ambiguity aversion in adults compared to children. As ambiguity aversion in adults has been theorized to result from a preference to bet on the known and avoid the unfamiliar, we separately measured familiarity bias and found that children, like adults, are biased towards the familiar. Our findings indicate that ambiguity aversion emerges across the course of development between childhood and adolescence, while a familiarity bias is already present in childhood.

  14. Acceptable losses: the debatable origins of loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yechiam, Eldad

    2018-04-16

    It is often claimed that negative events carry a larger weight than positive events. Loss aversion is the manifestation of this argument in monetary outcomes. In this review, we examine early studies of the utility function of gains and losses, and in particular the original evidence for loss aversion reported by Kahneman and Tversky (Econometrica  47:263-291, 1979). We suggest that loss aversion proponents have over-interpreted these findings. Specifically, the early studies of utility functions have shown that while very large losses are overweighted, smaller losses are often not. In addition, the findings of some of these studies have been systematically misrepresented to reflect loss aversion, though they did not find it. These findings shed light both on the inability of modern studies to reproduce loss aversion as well as a second literature arguing strongly for it.

  15. Complexity and competition in appetitive and aversive neural circuits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crista L. Barberini

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making often involves using sensory cues to predict possible rewarding or punishing reinforcement outcomes before selecting a course of action. Recent work has revealed complexity in how the brain learns to predict rewards and punishments. Analysis of neural signaling during and after learning in the amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex, two brain areas that process appetitive and aversive stimuli, reveals a dynamic relationship between appetitive and aversive circuits. Specifically, the relationship between signaling in appetitive and aversive circuits in these areas shifts as a function of learning. Furthermore, although appetitive and aversive circuits may often drive opposite behaviors – approaching or avoiding reinforcement depending upon its valence – these circuits can also drive similar behaviors, such as enhanced arousal or attention; these processes also may influence choice behavior. These data highlight the formidable challenges ahead in dissecting how appetitive and aversive neural circuits interact to produce a complex and nuanced range of behaviors.

  16. Causes and risk factors for infant mortality in Nunavut, Canada 1999–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collins Sorcha A

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The northern territory Nunavut has Canada’s largest jurisdictional land mass with 33,322 inhabitants, of which 85% self-identify as Inuit. Nunavut has rates of infant mortality, postneonatal mortality and hospitalisation of infants for respiratory infections that greatly exceed those for the rest of Canada. The infant mortality rate in Nunavut is 3 times the national average, and twice that of the neighbouring territory, the Northwest Territories. Nunavut has the largest Inuit population in Canada, a population which has been identified as having high rates of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS and infant deaths due to infections. Methods To determine the causes and potential risk factors of infant mortality in Nunavut, we reviewed all infant deaths ( Results Sudden death in infancy (SIDS/SUDI; 48% and infection (21% were the leading causes of infant death, with rates significantly higher than for Canada (2003–2007. Of SIDS/SUDI cases with information on sleep position (n=42 and bed-sharing (n=47, 29 (69% were sleeping non-supine and 33 (70% were bed-sharing. Of those bed-sharing, 23 (70% had two or more additional risk factors present, usually non-supine sleep position. CPT1A P479L homozygosity, which has been previously associated with infant mortality in Alaska Native and British Columbia First Nations populations, was associated with unexpected infant death (SIDS/SUDI, infection throughout Nunavut (OR:3.43, 95% CI:1.30-11.47. Conclusion Unexpected infant deaths comprise the majority of infant deaths in Nunavut. Although the CPT1A P479L variant was associated with unexpected infant death in Nunavut as a whole, the association was less apparent when population stratification was considered. Strategies to promote safe sleep practices and further understand other potential risk factors for infant mortality (P479L variant, respiratory illness are underway with local partners.

  17. Children with hypercholesterolemia of unknown cause: Value of genetic risk scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjouke, Barbara; Tanck, Michael W T; Fouchier, Sigrid W; Defesche, Joep C; Hutten, Barbara A; Wiegman, Albert; Kastelein, John J P; Hovingh, G Kees

    2016-01-01

    Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is caused by mutations in LDLR, APOB, or PCSK9, and in a previous study, we identified a causative mutation in these FH genes in 95% (255 of 269) of children with the FH phenotype. It has been hypothesized that a polygenic form of hypercholesterolemia is present in FH patients in whom no mutation is identified in the 3 FH genes. To address whether a polygenic form of hypercholesterolemia, defined as high-weighted effect of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) raising SNPs expressed as the genetic risk score (GRS), is present in the remaining 14 children. On reassessment of the molecular diagnosis and clinical phenotype, 8 FH kindreds met the criteria for hypercholesterolemia of unknown cause and were included in this study. We calculated a weighted GRS comprising 10 established LDL-C-associated SNPs and the APOE genotype in these index cases and evaluated whether the index cases were characterized by an increased GRS compared to 26 first-degree relatives. Phenotypically affected and unaffected individuals could not be distinguished based on any of the risk scores. In this and our previous study, we show that a causal mutation in LDLR, APOB, and PCSK9 can be identified in almost all children with a definite clinical diagnosis of FH. In the small group of patients without a mutation, we did not observe a higher GRS compared with unaffected relatives, which suggests that the FH phenotype is not caused by the aggregate of LDL-C increasing SNPs. Our data imply that application of the GRS is not instrumental as a diagnostic tool to individually define clinically diagnosed FH patients with polygenic hypercholesterolemia in our study population. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Collision risk investigation for an operational spacecraft caused by space debris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Binbin; Wang, Zhaokui; Zhang, Yulin

    2017-04-01

    The collision probability between an operational spacecraft and a population of space debris is investigated. By dividing the 3-dimensional operational space of the spacecraft into several space volume cells (SVC) and proposing a boundary selection method to calculate the collision probability in each SVC, the distribution of the collision risk, as functions of the time, the orbital height, the declination, the impact elevation, the collision velocity, etc., can be obtained. Thus, the collision risk could be carefully evaluated over a time span for the general orbital configurations of the spacecraft and the space debris. As an application, the collision risk for the Tiangong-2 space laboratory caused by the cataloged space debris is discussed and evaluated. Results show that most of the collision threat comes from the front left and front right in Tiangong-2's local, quasi-horizontal plane. And the collision probability will also accumulate when Tiangong-2 moves to the largest declinations (about {±} 42°). As a result, the manned space activities should be avoided at those declinations.

  19. Hygienic assessment of risk caused by application of graminis ke and rinkor vg herbicides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.M. Vasileva

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Our research goal was to perform hygienic assessment of risks caused by Graminis KE and Rinkor VG herbicides for people working with them. We applied sanitary-hygienic and toxicological research techniques in our work in full conformity with valid technical regulatory documents and guidelines. We set the following research tasks: to analyze literature and information sources; to perform primary toxicological assessment of preparatory herbicides and study their acute toxicity together with sensitizing effects at intragastric introduction, cutaneous application, and inhalation exposure on laboratory animals; to examine herbicides cumulative effects and calculation their cumulation coefficient; to examine working conditions during a natural experiment when Graminis KE and Rinkor VG herbicides were applied and calculate risks for workers; to work out scientifically grounded recommendations on their safety application in agriculture. The examined herbicides, Graminis KE and Rinkor VG, are classified as substances with the 3rd hazard degree as per their toxicometric parameters (moderately hazardous substances. Calculated risks of complex (inhalant and dermal exposure to Gramins KE and Rinkor VG herbicides for workers (operators who refills them and those who spray plants with them when they are applied in agriculture don't exceed acceptable levels (are less than 1. Our work results allow to enrich a set of plant protectors which are applied in the country and to use such preparations in agriculture which are the least harmful for health and the environment. Application of Graminis KE and Rinkor VG herbicides will help to increase crops productivity.

  20. The study of logistic regression of risk factor on the death cause of uranium miners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen Jinai; Yuan Liyun; Jiang Ruyi

    1999-01-01

    Logistic regression model has widely been used in the field of medicine. The computer software on this model is popular, but it is worth to discuss how to use this model correctly. Using SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Science) software, unconditional logistic regression method was adopted to carry out multi-factor analyses on the cause of total death, cancer death and lung cancer death of uranium miners. The data is from radioepidemiological database of one uranium mine. The result show that attained age is a risk factor in the logistic regression analyses of total death, cancer death and lung cancer death. In the logistic regression analysis of cancer death, there is a negative correlation between the age of exposure and cancer death. This shows that the younger the age at exposure, the bigger the risk of cancer death. In the logistic regression analysis of lung cancer death, there is a positive correlation between the cumulated exposure and lung cancer death, this show that cumulated exposure is a most important risk factor of lung cancer death on uranium miners. It has been documented by many foreign reports that the lung cancer death rate is higher in uranium miners

  1. [Risks and health problems caused by the use of video terminals].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamez González, Silvia; Ortiz-Hernández, Luis; Martínez-Alcántara, Susana; Méndez-Ramírez, Ignacio

    2003-01-01

    To evaluate the association between video display terminal (VDT) use and health hazards, occupational risks, and psychosocial factors, in newspaper workers. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 1998 in a representative sample (n = 68) drawn from a population of 218 VDT operators in Mexico City. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. Data were confirmed by performing physical examinations. The research hypothesis was that both the current and cumulative use of VDT are associated with visual, musculoskeletal system, and skin illnesses, as well as with fatigue and mental or psychosomatic disorders. Occupational health hazards were assessed (visual problems, postural risks, sedentary work, computer mouse use, excessive heat, and overcrowding), as well as psychosocial factors related to work organization (psychological demands, work control, and social support). Prevalence ratios were adjusted for confounding variables like age, sex and schooling. Women were more likely than men to have upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders (MSD), dermatitis, and seborrheic eczema. VDT use was associated with neuro-visual fatigue, upper extremity MSD, dermatitis, and seborrheic eczema. Computer mouse use and postural risks were significantly associated with health problems. Psychosocial factors were mainly associated with mental problems, psychosomatic disorders, and fatigue. Intense use of video screens has been found to cause musculoskeletal disorders of the hand. The diversification of tasks and control of labor processes itself had a protective effect against psychosomatic disorders and pathological fatigue.

  2. Risk, Balanced Skills and Entrepreneurship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hsieh, C.; Parker, S.C.; van Praag, C.M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes that risk aversion encourages individuals to invest in balanced skill profiles, making them more likely to become entrepreneurs. By not taking this possible linkage into account, previous research has underestimated the impacts of both risk aversion and balanced skills on the

  3. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-02-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer - numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups.

  4. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer – numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups. PMID:25649757

  5. Causes of liver failure and impact analysis of prognostic risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WU Xiaoqing

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo perform a retrospective analysis of patients with liver failure to investigate the causative factors and related risk factors that may affect patient prognosis. MethodsThe clinical, demographic, and laboratory data of 79 consecutive patients diagnosed with liver failure and treated at our hospital between January 2010 and January 2012 (58 males and 21 females; age range: 16-74 years old were collected from the medical records. To identify risk factors of liver failure, the patient variables were assessed by Student’s t-test (continuous variables or Chi-squared test (categorical variables. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the relation between patient outcome and independent risk factors. ResultsThe 79 cases of liver failure were grouped according to disease severity: acute liver failure (n=6; 5 died, subacute liver failure (n=35; 19 died, and chronic liver failure (n=38; 28 died. The overall rate of death was 66%. The majority of cases (81% were related to hepatitis B virus infection. While the three groups of liver failure severity did not show significant differences in sex, mean age, occupation, presence of potassium disorder, total bilirubin (TBil or total cholesterol (CHO at admission, or lowest recorded level of CHO during hospitalization, there were significant intergroup differences in highest recorded TBil level, prothrombin activity (PTA at admission, and highest and lowest recorded PTA, and highest recorded level of CHO. Five independent risk factors were identified: the highest recorded TBil level during hospitalization, presence of infection, hepatorenal syndrome, gastrointestinal bleeding, and hepatic encephalopathy. ConclusionThe major cause of liver failure in this cohort of patients was hepatitis infection, and common biomarkers of liver function, such as TBil, CHO and PTA, may indicate patients with poor prognosis despite clinical intervention. Complications should be addressed as

  6. Fibrosis-Related Biomarkers and Risk of Total and Cause-Specific Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Isha; Glazer, Nicole L.; Barasch, Eddy; Biggs, Mary L.; Djoussé, Luc; Fitzpatrick, Annette L.; Gottdiener, John S.; Ix, Joachim H.; Kizer, Jorge R.; Rimm, Eric B.; Siscovick, David S.; Tracy, Russell P.; Zieman, Susan J.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.

    2014-01-01

    Fibrosis has been implicated in diverse diseases of the liver, kidney, lungs, and heart, but its importance as a risk factor for mortality remains unconfirmed. We determined the prospective associations of 2 complementary biomarkers of fibrosis, transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) and procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP), with total and cause-specific mortality risks among community-living older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study (1996–2010). We measured circulating TGF-β and PIIINP levels in plasma samples collected in 1996 and ascertained the number of deaths through 2010. Both TGF-β and PIIINP were associated with elevated risks of total and pulmonary mortality after adjustment for sociodemographic, clinical, and biochemical risk factors. For total mortality, the hazard ratios per doubling of TGF-β and PIIINP were 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.17; P = 0.02) and 1.14 (CI: 1.03, 1.27; P = 0.01), respectively. The corresponding hazard ratios for pulmonary mortality were 1.27 (CI: 1.01, 1.60; P = 0.04) for TGF-β and 1.52 (CI: 1.11, 2.10; P = 0.01) for PIIINP. Associations of TGF-β and PIIINP with total and pulmonary mortality were strongest among individuals with higher C-reactive protein concentrations (P for interaction < 0.05). Our findings provide some of the first large-scale prospective evidence that circulating biomarkers of fibrosis measured late in life are associated with death. PMID:24771724

  7. All-cause mortality among diabetic foot patients and related risk factors in Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almashouq, Mohammad K.; Youssef, Amira M.; Al-Qumaidi, Hamid; Al Derwish, Mohammad; Ouizi, Samir; Al-Shehri, Khalid; Masoodi, Saba N.

    2017-01-01

    Background Although Diabetes mellitus is a major public health problem in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region with high rates of diabetic foot complications, there are only limited data concerning mortality among such a high risk group. Therefore, the main aim of the current study was to assess all-cause mortality and its related predictors among diabetic patients with and without diabetic foot complications. Methods Using data from the Saudi National Diabetes Registry (SNDR), a total of 840 patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes aged ≥25 years with current or past history of diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) or diabetes related lower extremity amputation (LEA) were recruited in 2007 from active patients’ files and followed up to 2013. These patients were compared with an equal number of age and gender matched diabetic patients without foot complication recruited at the same period. All patients were subjected to living status verification at 31st December 2013. Results The all-cause mortality rate among patients with DFU was 42.54 per 1000 person-years and among LEA patients was 86.80 per 1000 person-years among LEA patients for a total of 2280 and 1129 person-years of follow up respectively. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) (95% CI) was 4.39 (3.55–5.23) and 7.21 (5.70–8.72) for cases with foot ulcer and LEA respectively. The percentage of deceased patients increased by almost twofold (18.5%) among patients with diabetic foot ulcer and more than threefold (32.2%) among patients with LEA compared with patients without diabetic foot complications (10.7%). The worst survival was among patients with LEA at 0.679 and the presence of diabetic nephropathy was the only significant independent risk factor for all-cause mortality among patients with diabetic foot complications. On the other hand, obese patients have demonstrated significantly reduced all-cause mortality rate. Conclusions Diabetic patients with diabetic foot complications have an excess

  8. Toxoplasma gondii influences aversive behaviors of female rats in an estrus cycle dependent manner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golcu, Doruk; Gebre, Rahiwa Z; Sapolsky, Robert M

    2014-08-01

    The protozoan Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) manipulates the behavior of its rodent intermediate host to facilitate its passage to its feline definitive host. This is accomplished by a reduction of the aversive response that rodents show towards cat odors, which likely increases the predation risk. Females on average show similar changes as males. However, behaviors that relate to aversion and attraction are usually strongly influenced by the estrus cycle. In this study, we replicated behavioral effects of T. gondii in female rats, as well as expanded it to two novel behavioral paradigms. We also characterized the role of the estrus cycle in the behavioral effects of T. gondii on female rats. Uninfected females preferred to spend more time in proximity to rabbit rather than bobcat urine, and in a dark chamber rather than a lit chamber. Infected females lost both of these preferences, and also spent more time investigating social novelty (foreign bedding in their environment). Taken together, these data suggest that infection makes females less risk averse and more exploratory. Furthermore, this effect was influenced by the estrus cycle. Uninfected rats preferred rabbit urine to bobcat urine throughout the cycle except at estrus and metestrus. In contrast, infected rats lost this preference at every stage of the cycle except estrus. Commensurate with the possibility that this was a hormone-dependent effect, infected rats had elevated levels of circulating progesterone, a known anxiolytic. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Disorders in melanopsin effect of pupil constriction as a risk factor causing eye diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.A. Kaptsov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Risks of eye damage and eyesight deterioration to a great extent depend on how efficient a biomechanical eye system is under energy-saving lighting conditions. The system's efficiency is determined by its adequacy in managing pupils and ciliary muscle. We analyzed mathematical models describing changes in pupil's diameter which were determined by light-technical parameters of illumination environment (luminance level and brightness. We highlighted the importance of ganglionic cells and the role they play in managing pupil's diameter (miosis when they are exposed to blue light within 480 nm spectrum. Basing on the assessment of a pupil's constriction under exposure to various light stimuli (blue, red, and green ones we worked out a melanopsin effect concept of a pupil's retention at miosis and showed that it could be a diagnostic sign of some diseases (age-related direct retinopathy, pancreatic diabetes under exposure to a blue light impulse with a certain wave length. Under exposure to blue light within 480 nm spectrum ganglionic cells form a managing signal for a sphincter muscle of a pupil and ciliary muscle which provides accommodation (as per Helmholtz and regulates aqueous humor flow in ciliary channel. All modern energy-saving light sources have a low energy level at wave length equal to 480 nm due to gap in their spectrum in comparison with sunlight spectrum with the same light temperature and luminance level. Inadequate management of pupil's diameter under artificial lighting conditions leads to melanopsin effect disorders and causes disharmony in managing aqueous humor outflow. All the above-stated factors under long-term visual load cause eye diseases risks in modern illumination environment. We detected that contemporary mathematic models describing pupil's diameter fluctuations needed to be refined allowing for new knowledge on functional peculiarities of retina cells and energy-saving light sources spectrum.

  10. Risk factors for mortality caused by hypothalamic obesity in children with hypothalamic tumours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haliloglu, B; Atay, Z; Guran, T; Abalı, S; Bas, S; Turan, S; Bereket, A

    2016-10-01

    Hypothalamic obesity (HyOb) is a common complication of childhood hypothalamic tumours. Patients with HyOb probably have a higher mortality rate than those with other types of obesity due in many cases to obstructive sleep apnoea/hypoventilation. To identify predictive factors for mortality caused by HyOb in children. Twenty children with HyOb secondary to hypothalamic tumours that were followed-up for ≥3 years and aged 6 years at diagnosis (3.71 ± 1.96 vs. 0.83 ± 0.73, P  1 SDS after 6 months of therapy (RR: 8.4, P obesity-related mortality rates were higher in the patients aged  0.05). The mortality rate was also 3.7-fold higher in the patients with a maximum BMI SDS ≥ 3 at any time during the first 3 years after therapy(P > 0.05). An increase in BMI SDS after 6 months of therapy was observed to be a risk factor for mortality caused by HyOb. In addition, age obesity is required. © 2015 World Obesity.

  11. Health risk factors in lead polluted environment causing isthemic health disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khnwal, S.; Rahman, K.U.

    2008-01-01

    Faisalabad is third most populous and industrial city, known as Manchester of Pakistan. Most of the people working in the industries of this city are exposed to highly polluted and toxic environment. Lead is a natural metal found in the environment and its contamination exceeds the range of normal limits by human activities causing a lot of health hazardous. An effort is made to assess the association of anemia and cholesterol with the development IHD among industrial workers who are exposed to the lead polluted environment. For this purpose the study was conducted during a period of one year (2006-7) and the respondents were the patients from industrial area coming to the hospitals visiting at DHQ Hospital Faisalabad. Only those patients were selected for this study who were diagnosed with clinical symptoms of lead toxicity. The demographic features of the respondents regarding their age, gender, marital status, family size, education, income, duration on job, working place and nature of work were considered. The data of this study was categorical nature and this measures the association among exposure to the environment with lead toxicity and causative risk factors i.e., cholesterol level, Hb level (anemia) causing ischemic heart disease (IHD) were studied. (author)

  12. THE FOOD RUSH. A SECURITY RISK AND A CAUSE FOR INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana FILIP

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Access to food is more than ever a question of interest. The world needs to produce at least 50% more food to feed 9 billion people by 2050. The land, biodiversity, oceans, forests, and other forms of natural capital are being depleted at unprecedented rates. Unless we change how we grow our food and manage our natural capital, food security – especially for the world’s poorest – will be at risk. In this context we expect that the struggle for food to generate migration, conflicts and, why not, international intervention defined by the new Copenhagen School of Security Studies paradigm. Since March 2008 governments, UN agencies and many social movements have adopted positions on the causes of the food crisis and the means to address it. Unfortunately, while these parties are trying to coordinate their activities and suggest new approaches, the old recipes for producing more food are often brought up. Contradictory proposals are made and the thought given to the causes underlying hunger and the food crisis (social, economic and political discrimination and exclusion has gone largely unheeded. The first Millennium Development Goal, which called for cutting the percentage of hungry people by half by 2015, is clearly out of reach. But the food crisis might lead to a new world food order.

  13. [Analysis of main risk factors causing foodborne diseases in food catering business].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yong-xiang; Liu, Xiu-mei; Bao, Yi-dan

    2011-06-01

    To study main risk factors that cause foodborne diseases in food catering business. Data from references and investigations conducted in food catering units were used to establish models which based on @Risk 4.5 with Monte Carlo method referring to food handling practice model (FHPM) to make risk assessment on factors of food contamination in food catering units. The Beta-Poisson models on dose-response relationship to Salmonella (developed by WHO/FAO and United States Department of Agriculture) and Vibrio parahaemolyticus (developed by US FDA) were used in this article to analyze the dose-response relationship of pathogens. The average probability of food poisoning by consuming Salmonella contaminated cooked meat under refrigeration was 1.96 × 10(-4) which was 1/2800 of the food under non-refrigeration (the average probability of food poisoning was 0.35 at room temperature 25°C). The average probability by consuming 6 hours stored meat under room temperature was 0.11 which was 16 times of 2 hours storage (6.79 × 10(-3)). The average probability by consuming contaminated meat without fully cooking was 1.71 × 10(-4) which was 100 times of consuming fully cooked meat (1.88 × 10(-6)). The probability growth of food poisoning by consuming Vibrio parahaemolyticus contaminated fresh seafood was proportional with contamination level and prevalence. The primary contamination level, storage temperature and time, cooking process and cross contamination are important factors of catering food safety.

  14. Obesity, Oxidative Stress, Adipose Tissue Dysfunction, and the Associated Health Risks: Causes and Therapeutic Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manna, Prasenjit

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Obesity is gaining acceptance as a serious primary health burden that impairs the quality of life because of its associated complications, including diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, asthma, sleep disorders, hepatic dysfunction, renal dysfunction, and infertility. It is a complex metabolic disorder with a multifactorial origin. Growing evidence suggests that oxidative stress plays a role as the critical factor linking obesity with its associated complications. Obesity per se can induce systemic oxidative stress through various biochemical mechanisms, such as superoxide generation from NADPH oxidases, oxidative phosphorylation, glyceraldehyde auto-oxidation, protein kinase C activation, and polyol and hexosamine pathways. Other factors that also contribute to oxidative stress in obesity include hyperleptinemia, low antioxidant defense, chronic inflammation, and postprandial reactive oxygen species generation. In addition, recent studies suggest that adipose tissue plays a critical role in regulating the pathophysiological mechanisms of obesity and its related co-morbidities. To establish an adequate platform for the prevention of obesity and its associated health risks, understanding the factors that contribute to the cause of obesity is necessary. The most current list of obesity determinants includes genetic factors, dietary intake, physical activity, environmental and socioeconomic factors, eating disorders, and societal influences. On the basis of the currently identified predominant determinants of obesity, a broad range of strategies have been recommended to reduce the prevalence of obesity, such as regular physical activity, ad libitum food intake limiting to certain micronutrients, increased dietary intake of fruits and vegetables, and meal replacements. This review aims to highlight recent findings regarding the role of oxidative stress in the pathogenesis of obesity and its associated risk factors, the role of dysfunctional adipose tissue

  15. Causes, costs, and risk factors for unplanned return visits after adenotonsillectomy in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, Melanie; Wilkes, Jacob; Korgenski, Kent; Srivastava, Rajendu; Meier, Jeremy

    2015-10-01

    To review the causes, costs, and risk factors for unplanned return visits and readmissions after pediatric adenotonsillectomy (T&A). Review of administrative database of outpatient adenotonsillectomy performed at any facility within a vertically integrated health care system in the Intermountain West on children age 1-18 years old between 1998 and 2012. Data reviewed included demographic variables, diagnosis associated with return visit and costs associated with return visits. Data from 39,906 children aged 1-18 years old were reviewed. A total of 2499 (6.3%) children had unplanned return visits. The most common reasons for return visits were bleeding (2.3%), dehydration, (2.3%) and throat pain (1.2%). After multivariate analysis, the main risk factors for any type of return visits were Medicaid insurance (OR=1.64 95% CI 1.47-1.84), Hispanic race (OR=1.36 95% CI 1.13-1.64), and increased severity of illness (SOI) (OR=11.29 95% CI 2.69-47.4 for SOI=3). The only factor associated with increased odds of requiring an inpatient admission on return visit was length of time spent in PACU (prelationship was also observed between the child's age and the risk of post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage. Children with increased severity of illness, those insured with Medicaid, and children of Hispanic ethnicity should be targeted with increased education and interventions in order to reduce unplanned visits after T&A. Further studies on post-tonsillectomy complications should include evaluating the effect of surgical technique and post-operative pain management on all complications and not solely post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Obesity, Oxidative Stress, Adipose Tissue Dysfunction, and the Associated Health Risks: Causes and Therapeutic Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manna, Prasenjit; Jain, Sushil K

    2015-12-01

    Obesity is gaining acceptance as a serious primary health burden that impairs the quality of life because of its associated complications, including diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, asthma, sleep disorders, hepatic dysfunction, renal dysfunction, and infertility. It is a complex metabolic disorder with a multifactorial origin. Growing evidence suggests that oxidative stress plays a role as the critical factor linking obesity with its associated complications. Obesity per se can induce systemic oxidative stress through various biochemical mechanisms, such as superoxide generation from NADPH oxidases, oxidative phosphorylation, glyceraldehyde auto-oxidation, protein kinase C activation, and polyol and hexosamine pathways. Other factors that also contribute to oxidative stress in obesity include hyperleptinemia, low antioxidant defense, chronic inflammation, and postprandial reactive oxygen species generation. In addition, recent studies suggest that adipose tissue plays a critical role in regulating the pathophysiological mechanisms of obesity and its related co-morbidities. To establish an adequate platform for the prevention of obesity and its associated health risks, understanding the factors that contribute to the cause of obesity is necessary. The most current list of obesity determinants includes genetic factors, dietary intake, physical activity, environmental and socioeconomic factors, eating disorders, and societal influences. On the basis of the currently identified predominant determinants of obesity, a broad range of strategies have been recommended to reduce the prevalence of obesity, such as regular physical activity, ad libitum food intake limiting to certain micronutrients, increased dietary intake of fruits and vegetables, and meal replacements. This review aims to highlight recent findings regarding the role of oxidative stress in the pathogenesis of obesity and its associated risk factors, the role of dysfunctional adipose tissue in

  17. Risk-based decision making to manage water quality failures caused by combined sewer overflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriwastava, A. K.; Torres-Matallana, J. A.; Tait, S.; Schellart, A.

    2017-12-01

    Regulatory authorities set certain environmental permit for water utilities such that the combined sewer overflows (CSO) managed by these companies conform to the regulations. These utility companies face the risk of paying penalty or negative publicity in case they breach the environmental permit. These risks can be addressed by designing appropriate solutions such as investing in additional infrastructure which improve the system capacity and reduce the impact of CSO spills. The performance of these solutions is often estimated using urban drainage models. Hence, any uncertainty in these models can have a significant effect on the decision making process. This study outlines a risk-based decision making approach to address water quality failure caused by CSO spills. A calibrated lumped urban drainage model is used to simulate CSO spill quality in Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg. Uncertainty in rainfall and model parameters is propagated through Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty in the concentration of ammonia in the CSO spill. A combination of decision alternatives such as the construction of a storage tank at the CSO and the reduction in the flow contribution of catchment surfaces are selected as planning measures to avoid the water quality failure. Failure is defined as exceedance of a concentration-duration based threshold based on Austrian emission standards for ammonia (De Toffol, 2006) with a certain frequency. For each decision alternative, uncertainty quantification results into a probability distribution of the number of annual CSO spill events which exceed the threshold. For each alternative, a buffered failure probability as defined in Rockafellar & Royset (2010), is estimated. Buffered failure probability (pbf) is a conservative estimate of failure probability (pf), however, unlike failure probability, it includes information about the upper tail of the distribution. A pareto-optimal set of solutions is obtained by performing mean

  18. The Impact of Abdominal Fat Levels on All-Cause Mortality Risk in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takahiro Yajima

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Although an increased body mass index is associated with lower mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD, known as the “obesity paradox,” the relationship of abdominal fat levels with all-cause mortality has rarely been studied. We investigated the impact of computed-tomography-measured abdominal fat levels (visceral fat area (VFA and subcutaneous fat area (SFA on all-cause mortality in this population. A total of 201 patients undergoing HD were enrolled and cross-classified by VFA and SFA levels according to each cutoff point, VFA of 78.7 cm2 and SFA of 93.2 cm2, based on the receiver operator characteristic (ROC curve as following; group 1 (G1: lower VFA and lower SFA, G2: higher VFA and lower SFA, G3: lower VFA and higher SFA, G4: higher VFA and higher SFA. During a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 67 patients died. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed 10-year survival rates of 29.0%, 50.0%, 62.6%, and 72.4% in G1, G2, G3, and G4 (p < 0.0001, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio was 0.30 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.05–1.09, p = 0.070 for G2 vs. G1, 0.37 (95% CI 0.18–0.76, p = 0.0065 for G3 vs. G1, and 0.21 (95% CI 0.07–0.62, p = 0.0035 for G4 vs. G1, respectively. In conclusion, combined SFA and VFA levels were negatively associated with risks for all-cause mortality in patients undergoing HD. These results are a manifestation of the “obesity paradox.”

  19. Economic decisions for others: an exception to loss aversion law.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Mengarelli

    Full Text Available In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision.

  20. The Neural Foundations of Reaction and Action in Aversive Motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campese, Vincent D; Sears, Robert M; Moscarello, Justin M; Diaz-Mataix, Lorenzo; Cain, Christopher K; LeDoux, Joseph E

    2016-01-01

    Much of the early research in aversive learning concerned motivation and reinforcement in avoidance conditioning and related paradigms. When the field transitioned toward the focus on Pavlovian threat conditioning in isolation, this paved the way for the clear understanding of the psychological principles and neural and molecular mechanisms responsible for this type of learning and memory that has unfolded over recent decades. Currently, avoidance conditioning is being revisited, and with what has been learned about associative aversive learning, rapid progress is being made. We review, below, the literature on the neural substrates critical for learning in instrumental active avoidance tasks and conditioned aversive motivation.