WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment service

  1. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  2. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamel, D.R. [Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  3. Patient satisfaction with a chronic kidney disease risk assessment service in community pharmacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheewala, Pankti A; Peterson, Gregory M; Zaidi, Syed Tabish R; Jose, Matthew D; Castelino, Ronald L

    2018-04-01

    Patient satisfaction is an important determinant of the feasibility and sustainability of community pharmacy screening services. However, few studies have evaluated this, with no such study performed for a chronic kidney disease risk assessment service. The aim was to determine patient satisfaction with a chronic kidney disease risk assessment service performed in community pharmacies. Community pharmacies in the state of Tasmania, Australia. An anonymous nine-item satisfaction survey, with Likert-type scales, was developed following a literature review of existing surveys. Reliability of the nine-item scale was determined using Cronbach's alpha. Patients were asked an additional question on willingness to pay, with choices of amount from $5 to $25. The satisfaction survey was mailed to 389 patients who participated in the chronic kidney disease risk assessment study. Patient level of satisfaction with and willingness to pay for the chronic kidney disease service. Responses from 143 participants were included in the final analysis. Cronbach's alpha for the nine-item satisfaction scale was 0.87. The majority of participants agreed that the time required to undergo the risk assessment process was justified (90.2%); overall, they were satisfied with the chronic kidney disease risk assessment service (90.0%) and they felt comfortable with the pharmacist referring their results to their doctor (88.9%). Of 136 participants who answered the question on willingness to pay, 62.9% indicated that they would pay for the chronic kidney disease service. Of these, 29.2, 25.8 and 19.1% were willing to pay $20, $10 and $5, respectively. Patient satisfaction with the community pharmacy-based chronic kidney disease risk assessment was high. These findings provide support for the implementation of the service within community pharmacy practice.

  4. Design and initial validation of the Raster method for telecom service availability risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vriezekolk, E.; Wieringa, R.J.; Etalle, S.; Rothkrantz, L.; Ristvej, J.; Franco, Z.

    2012-01-01

    Crisis organisations depend on telecommunication services; unavailability of these services reduces the effectiveness of crisis response. Crisis organisations should therefore be aware of availability risks, and need a suitable risk assessment method. Such a method needs to be aware of the

  5. Design and initial validation of the Raster method for telecom service availability risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vriezekolk, E.; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Etalle, Sandro; Rothkrantz, L.J.M.; Ristvej, J.; Franco, Z.

    Crisis organisations depend on telecommunication services; unavailability of these services reduces the effectiveness of crisis response. Crisis organisations should therefore be aware of availability risks, and need a suitable risk assessment method. Such a method needs to be aware of the

  6. Families at risk of poor parenting: a model for service delivery, assessment, and intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayoub, C; Jacewitz, M M

    1982-01-01

    The At Risk Parent Child Program is a multidisciplinary network agency designed for the secondary prevention of poor parenting and the extremes of child abuse and neglect. This model system of service delivery emphasizes (1) the coordination of existing community resources to access a target population of families at risk of parenting problems, (2) the provision of multiple special services in a neutral location (ambulatory pediatric clinic), and (3) the importance of intensive individual contact with a clinical professional who serves as primary therapist, social advocate and service coordinator for client families. Identification and assessment of families is best done during prenatal and perinatal periods. Both formal and informal procedures for screening for risk factors are described, and a simple set of at risk criteria for use by hospital nursing staff is provided. Preventive intervention strategies include special medical, psychological, social and developmental services, offered in an inpatient; outpatient, or in-home setting. Matching family needs to modality and setting of treatment is a major program concern. All direct services to at risk families are supplied by professionals employed within existing local agencies (hospital, public health department, state guidance center, and medical school pediatric clinic). Multiple agency involvement allows a broad-based screening capacity which allows thousands of families routine access to program services. The administrative center of the network stands as an independent, community-funded core which coordinates and monitors direct clinical services, and provides local political advocacy for families at risk of parenting problems.

  7. Assessing Protective Factors for Violence Risk in U.K. General Mental Health Services Using the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, Alina; Brown, Andrew; Javaid, Syed Fahad; Khan, Fayyaz; Noblett, Steve; Omodunbi, Oladipupo; Sadiq, Khurram; Zaman, Wahid; Whittington, Richard

    2017-12-01

    Violence risk assessment and management are key tasks in mental health services and should be guided by validated instruments covering both risk and protective factors. This article is part of an international effort to validate the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) for violence. The SAPROF, Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) and the Psychopathy Checklist-Screening Version (PCL-SV) were administered in a sample of 261 patients in U.K. forensic, general inpatient, and community mental health settings. There was significant variation between these groups on SAPROF scores with fewer protective factors in the forensic group. The prospective validity of the SAPROF for nonviolence in the general inpatient and community samples was moderate (area under the curve [AUC] = .60). Adoption of the SAPROF or similar instruments as a supplement to risk-focused assessments has the potential to improve awareness of protective factors and enhance therapeutic engagement in a range of mental health services.

  8. Characterization and Health Risk Assessment of Volatile Organic Compounds in Gas Service Station Workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duangduan Yimrungruang

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Gas service station workers who work near volatile organic compounds (VOCs sources, such as gasoline vapor emissions, and motor vehicle exhausts, may be exposed to highly elevated VOCs levels. This study investigates air samples from gas service stations in Thailand to evaluate the health risks following inhalation exposure. Personal air samplings were obtained at nine gas service stations in Chonburi, Thailand from October to December 2007. The concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes, and hexane in the air from the workplaces were significantly higher than in a control group of office workers (p<0.05. However, all VOCs in these air samples were lower than TWA limit of Thailand and the OSHA standard. Samples of urine, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed for VOCs metabolites, including t,t muconic acid, hippuric acid, mandelic acid and m-hippuric acid, demonstrate that the average levels of metabolites in gas service station workers and in controls were close, except for t,t muconic acid of gas service station workers which displayed higher levels than the in the controls. The lifetime cancer and noncancer risks for the workers exposed to VOCs were also assessed. Results show that all nine gas service stations in this study had a elevated lifetime cancer risk ranging from 53 to 630 per million, thus exceeding the normal risk of 1 per million. For noncancer risks, the levels in all gas stations ranged between 0.03 and 0.4, which is well below the reference hazard level of 1.0. Benzene may the most important cause of both cancer and noncancer risk followed by 1,3 butadiene.

  9. Risk assessment for implementing e-services in some ministries in the State of Kuwait

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaied, A.N.H.; Al-Khairalla, F.

    2007-01-01

    The movement to e-government is basically about changing the way people and business interact with government. Kuwait, like any developing country, is currently launching major e-service projects aiming at improving government processes, connect government to citizens, and build interaction within the civil society. The e-services category of e-government applications enables interactions and relationships between the government and citizens, through which the latter gain access to a range of public services. However, the implementation process of e-services involves many factors of risk that could threaten the success of process. Therefore, an effective risk management process is an important component of a successful information security program. This paper investigates and discusses the possibilities of e-services risk areas and assesses the security and privacy protection issues in some ministries in Kuwait. The results show that the total average percentage of applying security and privacy issues in the studied ministries is moderate. The Ministry of Communication (MoC) has the highest percentage of applications, whereas the Ministry of Trading and Industry (MoTI) has the lowest. Physical security is the highest applied variable, while prevention of unauthorized access is the lowest one. (author)

  10. Environmental risk assessment for invasive alien species : A case study of apple snails affecting ecosystem services in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gilioli, Gianni; Schrader, Gritta; Carlsson, Nils; van Donk, Ellen; van Leeuwen, Casper H.A.; Martín, Pablo R.; Pasquali, Sara; Vilà, Montserrat; Vos, Sybren

    2017-01-01

    The assessment of the risk posed by invasive alien species (IAS) to the environment is a component of increasing importance for Pest Risk Analysis. Standardized and comprehensive procedures to assess their impacts on ecosystem services have been developed only recently. The invasive apple snails

  11. Environmental risk assessment for invasive alien species: A case study of apple snails affecting ecosystem services in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gilioli, Gianni; Schrader, Gritta; Carlsson, Nils; van Donk, Ellen; van Leeuwen, Casper H.A.; Martín, Pablo R.; Pasquali, Sara; Vilà, Montserrat; Vos, Sybren

    Abstract The assessment of the risk posed by invasive alien species (IAS) to the environment is a component of increasing importance for Pest Risk Analysis. Standardized and comprehensive procedures to assess their impacts on ecosystem services have been developed only recently. The invasive apple

  12. Environmental risk assessment for plant pests: a procedure to evaluate their impacts on ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilioli, G; Schrader, G; Baker, R H A; Ceglarska, E; Kertész, V K; Lövei, G; Navajas, M; Rossi, V; Tramontini, S; van Lenteren, J C

    2014-01-15

    The current methods to assess the environmental impacts of plant pests differ in their approaches and there is a lack of the standardized procedures necessary to provide accurate and consistent results, demonstrating the complexity of developing a commonly accepted scheme for this purpose. By including both the structural and functional components of the environment threatened by invasive alien species (IAS), in particular plant pests, we propose an environmental risk assessment scheme that addresses this complexity. Structural components are investigated by evaluating the impacts of the plant pest on genetic, species and landscape diversity. Functional components are evaluated by estimating how plant pests modify ecosystem services in order to determine the extent to which an IAS changes the functional traits that influence ecosystem services. A scenario study at a defined spatial and temporal resolution is then used to explore how an IAS, as an exogenous driving force, may trigger modifications in the target environment. The method presented here provides a standardized approach to generate comparable and reproducible results for environmental risk assessment as a component of Pest Risk Analysis. The method enables the assessment of overall environmental risk which integrates the impacts on different components of the environment and their probabilities of occurrence. The application of the proposed scheme is illustrated by evaluating the environmental impacts of the invasive citrus long-horn beetle, Anoplophora chinensis. © 2013.

  13. Biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services in environmental risk assessment: introduction to the special issue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfer, Ralf B

    2012-01-15

    This Special Issue focuses on the questions if and how biodiversity, ecosystem functions and resulting services could be incorporated into the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). Therefore, three articles provide a framework for the integration of ecosystem services into ERA of soils, sediments and pesticides. Further articles demonstrate ways how stakeholders can be integrated into an ecosystem service-based ERA for soils and describe how the current monitoring could be adapted to new assessment endpoints that are directly linked to ecosystem services. Case studies show that the current ERA may not be protective for biodiversity, ecosystem functions and resulting services and that both pesticides and salinity currently adversely affect ecosystem functions in the field. Moreover, ecological models can be used for prediction of new protection goals and could finally support their implementation into the ERA. Overall, the Special Issue stresses the urgent need to enhance current procedures of ERA if biodiversity, ecosystem functions and resulting services are to be protected. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  15. Assessing Freshwater Ecosystem Service Risk over Ecological, Socioeconomic, and Cultural Gradients: Problem Space Characterization and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, T. C.; Villamizar, S. R.; Conde, D.; Rusak, J.; Reid, B.; Astorga, A.; Perillo, G. M.; Piccolo, M. C.; Zilio, M.; London, S.; Velez, M.; Hoyos, N.; Escobar, J.

    2014-12-01

    Freshwater ecosystems and the services they provide are under increasing anthropogenic pressure at local (e.g., irrigation diversions, wastewater discharge) and global scales (e.g., climate change, global trading). The impact depends on an ecosystem's sensitivity, which is determined by its geophysical and ecological settings, and the population and activities in its surrounding watershed. Given the importance of ecosystem services, it is critical that we improve our ability to identify and understand changes in aquatic ecosystems, and translate them to risk of service loss. Furthermore, to inspire changes in human behavior, it is equally critical that we learn to communicate risk, and pose risk mitigation strategies, in a manner acceptable to a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Quantifying the nature and timing of the risk is difficult because (1) we often fail to understand the connection between anthropogenic pressures and the timing and extent of ecosystem changes; and (2) the concept of risk is inherently coupled to human perception, which generally differs with cultural and socio-economic conditions. In this study, we endeavor to assess aquatic ecosystem risks across an international array of six study sites. The challenge is to construct a methodology capable of capturing the marked biogeographical, socioeconomic, and cultural differences among the sites, which include: (1) Muskoka River watershed in humid continental Ontario, Canada; (2) Lower San Joaquin River, an impounded snow-fed river in semi-arid Central California; (3) Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta, a tropical coastal lagoon in Colombia; (4) Senguer River basin in the semi-arid part of Argentina; (5) Laguna de Rocha watershed in humid subtropical Uruguay; and (6) Palomas Lake complex in oceanic Chilean Patagonia. Results will include a characterization of the experimental gradient over the six sites, an overview of the risk assessment methodology, and preliminary findings for several of the sites.

  16. Assessing the risk of foliar injury from ozone on vegetation in parks in the U.S. National Park Service's Vital Signs Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohut, Robert

    2007-01-01

    The risk of ozone injury to plants was assessed in support of the National Park Service's Vital Signs Monitoring Network program. The assessment examined bioindicator species, evaluated levels of ozone exposure, and investigated soil moisture conditions during periods of exposure for a 5-year period in each park. The assessment assigned each park a risk rating of high, moderate, or low. For the 244 parks for which assessments were conducted, the risk of foliar injury was high in 65 parks, moderate in 46 parks, and low in 131 parks. Among the well-known parks with a high risk of ozone injury are Gettysburg, Valley Forge, Delaware Water Gap, Cape Cod, Fire Island, Antietam, Harpers Ferry, Manassas, Wolf Trap Farm Park, Mammoth Cave, Shiloh, Sleeping Bear Dunes, Great Smoky Mountains, Joshua Tree, Sequoia and Kings Canyon, and Yosemite. - An assessment of the risk of foliar ozone injury on plants was conducted for 269 parks in support of the U.S. National Park Service's Vital Signs Monitoring Network Program

  17. Assessment and management of suicide risk in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saini, Pooja; While, David; Chantler, Khatidja; Windfuhr, Kirsten; Kapur, Navneet

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment and management of suicidal patients is emphasized as a key component of care in specialist mental health services, but these issues are relatively unexplored in primary care services. To examine risk assessment and management in primary and secondary care in a clinical sample of individuals who were in contact with mental health services and died by suicide. Data collection from clinical proformas, case records, and semistructured face-to-face interviews with general practitioners. Primary and secondary care data were available for 198 of the 336 cases (59%). The overall agreement in the rating of risk between services was poor (overall κ = .127, p = .10). Depression, care setting (after discharge), suicidal ideation at last contact, and a history of self-harm were associated with a rating of higher risk. Suicide prevention policies were available in 25% of primary care practices, and 33% of staff received training in suicide risk assessments. Risk is difficult to predict, but the variation in risk assessment between professional groups may reflect poor communication. Further research is required to understand this. There appears to be a relative lack of suicide risk assessment training in primary care.

  18. Barriers and Facilitators for Utilization of Genetic Counseling and Risk Assessment Services in Young Female Breast Cancer Survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth Anderson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Women diagnosed with breast cancer at a young age are more likely to carry a cancer predisposing genetic mutation. Per the current NCCN recommendations, women diagnosed under age 50 should be referred to cancer genetic counseling for further risk evaluation. This study seeks to assess patient-reported barriers and facilitators to receiving genetic counseling and risk assessment among a community-based population of young breast cancer survivors (YBCS. Methods. Through the Michigan Cancer Surveillance Program, a state-based cancer registry, 488 women diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50 in 2006-2007 were identified. They received a mail survey regarding family history and facilitators and barriers to receiving genetic counseling and risk assessment. Results. Responses were received from 289 women (59.2%. One hundred twenty-two (42.2% reported having received cancer genetic counseling. The most frequent reason identified for receiving services was to benefit their family's future. The top reasons for not attending were “no one recommended it” and “medical insurance coverage issues.” Discussion. This study is the first published report using a state cancer registry to determine facilitators and barriers to receiving genetic counseling and risk assessment among YBCS. These findings demonstrate the need for additional awareness and education about appropriate indications for genetic services.

  19. Barriers and Facilitators for Utilization of Genetic Counseling and Risk Assessment Services in Young Female Breast Cancer Survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, B.; McLosky, J.; Wasilevich, E.; Callo, S. L.; Duquette, D.; Copeland, G.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction. Women diagnosed with breast cancer at a young age are more likely to carry a cancer predisposing genetic mutation. Per the current NCCN recommendations, women diagnosed under age 50 should be referred to cancer genetic counseling for further risk evaluation. This study seeks to assess patient-reported barriers and facilitators to receiving genetic counseling and risk assessment among a community-based population of young breast cancer survivors (YBCS). Methods. Through the Michigan Cancer Surveillance Program, a state-based cancer registry, 488 women diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50 in 2006-2007 were identified. They received a mail survey regarding family history and facilitators and barriers to receiving genetic counseling and risk assessment. Results. Responses were received from 289 women (59.2%). One hundred twenty-two (42.2%) reported having received cancer genetic counseling. The most frequent reason identified for receiving services was to benefit their family's future. The top reasons for not attending were “no one recommended it” and “medical insurance coverage issues.” Discussion. This study is the first published report using a state cancer registry to determine facilitators and barriers to receiving genetic counseling and risk assessment among YBCS. These findings demonstrate the need for additional awareness and education about appropriate indications for genetic services.

  20. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  1. Development of a framework based on an ecosystem services approach for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk assessment of pesticides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nienstedt, Karin M.; Brock, Theo C.M.; Wensem, Joke van; Montforts, Mark; Hart, Andy; Aagaard, Alf; Alix, Anne; Boesten, Jos; Bopp, Stephanie K.; Brown, Colin; Capri, Ettore; Forbes, Valery; Köpp, Herbert; Liess, Matthias; Luttik, Robert; Maltby, Lorraine

    2012-01-01

    General protection goals for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of plant protection products are stated in European legislation but specific protection goals (SPGs) are often not precisely defined. These are however crucial for designing appropriate risk assessment schemes. The process followed by the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) as well as examples of resulting SPGs obtained so far for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is presented. The ecosystem services approach was used as an overarching concept for the development of SPGs, which will likely facilitate communication with stakeholders in general and risk managers in particular. It is proposed to develop SPG options for 7 key drivers for ecosystem services (microbes, algae, non target plants (aquatic and terrestrial), aquatic invertebrates, terrestrial non target arthropods including honeybees, terrestrial non-arthropod invertebrates, and vertebrates), covering the ecosystem services that could potentially be affected by the use of pesticides. These SPGs need to be defined in 6 dimensions: biological entity, attribute, magnitude, temporal and geographical scale of the effect, and the degree of certainty that the specified level of effect will not be exceeded. In general, to ensure ecosystem services, taxa representative for the key drivers identified need to be protected at the population level. However, for some vertebrates and species that have a protection status in legislation, protection may be at the individual level. To protect the provisioning and supporting services provided by microbes it may be sufficient to protect them at the functional group level. To protect biodiversity impacts need to be assessed at least at the scale of the watershed/landscape. - Research highlights: ► How to define specific protection goals (SPGs) for environmental risk assessment? ► The process uses the ecosystem services (ES

  2. Promoting Service User Inclusion in Risk Assessment and Management: A Pilot Project Developing a Human Rights-Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhill, Beth; Whitehead, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Recent reports highlight the extent to which many people with learning disabilities are not afforded access to their basic human rights. In addition, traditional approaches to risk management often focus on professional assessments of risks and challenging behaviour and exclude service user perspectives. In this paper, we outline what we believe…

  3. An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, Peter H; Koomen, Eric; Hilferink, Maarten; Pérez-Soba, Marta; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal

  4. Development of a framework based on an ecosystem services approach for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk assessment of pesticides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Nienstedt, Karin M.; Brock, T. C. M.

    2012-01-01

    General protection goals for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of plant protection products are stated in European legislation but specific protection goals (SPGs) are often not precisely defined. These are however crucial for designing appropriate risk assessment schemes. The process...... followed by the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) as well as examples of resulting SPGs obtained so far for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is presented. The ecosystem services approach was used as an overarching...... and geographical scale of the effect, and the degree of certainty that the specified level of effect will not be exceeded. In general, to ensure ecosystem services, taxa representative for the key drivers identified need to be protected at the population level. However, for some vertebrates and species that have...

  5. Caries risk assessment in young adults using Public Dental Service guidelines and the Cariogram--a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Ericson, Ewa; Isberg, Per-Erik; Twetman, Svante

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the caries risk profiles in young adults and to compare the risk classification using the Public Dental Service (PDS) guidelines with a risk assessment program, the Cariogram. All 19-year-old patients registered at eight public dental clinics were invited to participate (n = 1699). The study group who completed the baseline examination consisted of 1295 subjects representing 10% of all 19 year-olds attending dental care at the PDS in Skåne, Sweden. A risk classification of each patient was made by the patient's regular team according to the PDS guidelines. A research team collected whole saliva samples and information from a questionnaire and a structured interview in order to calculate risk according to the Cariogram model. The mean DFS value was 4.9 and 23% of the patients were registered as caries-free (DFS = 0). The PDS risk classification was predominantly based on past caries and/or present caries activity. The majority was classified as 'some risk', while 16.7% were assessed as being of 'high' or 'very high risk'. The corresponding value for the two highest risk groups in the Cariogram model was 17.4%. The agreement between the two models was found acceptable (77.5%) for those assessed as low risk, while discrepancies were disclosed among those classified with higher risks. Although the proportion of subjects assessed with high or very high risk was similar using the PDS guidelines and the Cariogram model, the agreement between the models was fair. An acceptable agreement was only disclosed for the low risk category.

  6. Assessing the risk of foliar injury from ozone on vegetation in parks in the U.S. National Park Service's Vital Signs Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kohut, Robert [Boyce Thompson Institute for Plant Research, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)], E-mail: rjk9@cornell.edu

    2007-10-15

    The risk of ozone injury to plants was assessed in support of the National Park Service's Vital Signs Monitoring Network program. The assessment examined bioindicator species, evaluated levels of ozone exposure, and investigated soil moisture conditions during periods of exposure for a 5-year period in each park. The assessment assigned each park a risk rating of high, moderate, or low. For the 244 parks for which assessments were conducted, the risk of foliar injury was high in 65 parks, moderate in 46 parks, and low in 131 parks. Among the well-known parks with a high risk of ozone injury are Gettysburg, Valley Forge, Delaware Water Gap, Cape Cod, Fire Island, Antietam, Harpers Ferry, Manassas, Wolf Trap Farm Park, Mammoth Cave, Shiloh, Sleeping Bear Dunes, Great Smoky Mountains, Joshua Tree, Sequoia and Kings Canyon, and Yosemite. - An assessment of the risk of foliar ozone injury on plants was conducted for 269 parks in support of the U.S. National Park Service's Vital Signs Monitoring Network Program.

  7. Risk assessment practice within primary mental health care: A logics perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flintoff, Adam; Speed, Ewen; McPherson, Susan

    2018-04-01

    From the 1980s onwards, discourses of risk have continued to grow, almost in ubiquity. Ideas and practices of risk and risk aversion have extended to UK mental health care where services are expected to assess and manage risks, and high-quality clinical assessment has been revised to incorporate risk assessment. This article problematises practices of risk assessment in mental health provision, focussing on the base-rate problem. It presents an analysis of audio recordings of risk assessments completed within a primary care mental health service. The analysis is informed by a critical logics approach which, using ideas from discourse theory as well as Lacanian psychoanalysis, involves developing a set of logics to describe, analyse and explain social phenomena. We characterise the assessments as functioning according to social logics of well-oiled administration and preservation, whereby bureaucratic processes are prioritised, contingency ironed out or ignored, and a need to manage potential risks to the service are the dominant operational frames. These logics are considered in terms of their beatific and horrific fantasmatic dimensions, whereby risk assessment is enacted as infallible (beatific) until clients become threats (horrific), creating a range of potential false negatives, false positives and so forth. These processes function to obscure or background problems with risk assessment, by generating practices that favour and offer protection to assessors, at the expense of those being assessed, thus presenting a challenge to the stated aim of risk assessment practice.

  8. Managing risk: clinical decision-making in mental health services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir-Cochrane, Eimear; Gerace, Adam; Mosel, Krista; O'Kane, Debra; Barkway, Patricia; Curren, David; Oster, Candice

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment and management is a major component of contemporary mental health practice. Risk assessment in health care exists within contemporary perspectives of management and risk aversive practices in health care. This has led to much discussion about the best approach to assessing possible risks posed by people with mental health problems. In addition, researchers and commentators have expressed concern that clinical practice is being dominated by managerial models of risk management at the expense of meeting the patient's health and social care needs. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the risk assessment practices of a multidisciplinary mental health service. Findings indicate that mental health professionals draw on both managerial and therapeutic approaches to risk management, integrating these approaches into their clinical practice. Rather than being dominated by managerial concerns regarding risk, the participants demonstrate professional autonomy and concern for the needs of their clients.

  9. Service Use by At-Risk Youth after School-Based Suicide Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Objective We sought to examine follow-up service use by students identified at risk for suicidal behavior in a school-based screening program, and assess barriers to seeking services as perceived by youth and parents. Method We conducted a longitudinal study of 317 at-risk youth identified by a school-based suicide screening in six high schools in New York State. The at-risk teenagers and their parents were interviewed approximately two years after the initial screen to assess service use during the intervening period and identify barriers that may have interfered with seeking treatment. Results At the time of the screen, 72% of the at-risk students were not receiving any type of mental health service. Of these students, 51% were deemed in need of services and subsequently referred by us to a mental health professional. Nearly 70% followed through with the screening’s referral recommendations. Youth and their parents reported perceptions about mental health problems, specifically relating to the need for treatment, as the primary reasons for not seeking service. Conclusions Screening appears to be effective in enhancing the likelihood that students at risk for suicidal behavior will get into treatment. Well developed and systematic planning is needed to ensure that screening and referral services are coordinated so as to facilitate access for youth into timely treatment. PMID:19858758

  10. Providing access to risk prediction tools via the HL7 XML-formatted risk web service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, Jonathan; Drohan, Brian; Blackford, Amanda; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Hughes, Kevin; Bosinoff, Phil

    2013-07-01

    Cancer risk prediction tools provide valuable information to clinicians but remain computationally challenging. Many clinics find that CaGene or HughesRiskApps fit their needs for easy- and ready-to-use software to obtain cancer risks; however, these resources may not fit all clinics' needs. The HughesRiskApps Group and BayesMendel Lab therefore developed a web service, called "Risk Service", which may be integrated into any client software to quickly obtain standardized and up-to-date risk predictions for BayesMendel tools (BRCAPRO, MMRpro, PancPRO, and MelaPRO), the Tyrer-Cuzick IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, and the Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. Software clients that can convert their local structured data into the HL7 XML-formatted family and clinical patient history (Pedigree model) may integrate with the Risk Service. The Risk Service uses Apache Tomcat and Apache Axis2 technologies to provide an all Java web service. The software client sends HL7 XML information containing anonymized family and clinical history to a Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI) server, where it is parsed, interpreted, and processed by multiple risk tools. The Risk Service then formats the results into an HL7 style message and returns the risk predictions to the originating software client. Upon consent, users may allow DFCI to maintain the data for future research. The Risk Service implementation is exemplified through HughesRiskApps. The Risk Service broadens the availability of valuable, up-to-date cancer risk tools and allows clinics and researchers to integrate risk prediction tools into their own software interface designed for their needs. Each software package can collect risk data using its own interface, and display the results using its own interface, while using a central, up-to-date risk calculator. This allows users to choose from multiple interfaces while always getting the latest risk calculations. Consenting users contribute their data for future

  11. Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turturro, A; Hart, R W

    1987-01-01

    A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

  12. 78 FR 24693 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-26

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration 21 CFR Part 117 [Docket No. FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for..., and requesting comment on, a document entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity...

  13. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V

    2017-03-21

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider's server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs' users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs' risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs' risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing.

  14. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V.

    2017-01-01

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider’s server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs’ users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs’ risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs’ risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing. PMID:28335569

  15. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  16. Relationship between risk assessment and payment models in Swedish Public Dental Service

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2017-01-01

    risk preferred the prepaid model while those in the higher risk categories selected fee-for-service. As more additional preventive care was delivered to patients in the subscribed care, oral health planners and decision makers should be aware of the fact that capitation payment models may enhance...

  17. Caries risk assessment in young adults using Public Dental Service guidelines and the Cariogram-a comparative study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hänsel Petersson, Gunnel; Ericson, Ewa; Isberg, Per-Erik

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Objectives. To investigate the caries risk profiles in young adults and to compare the risk classification using the Public Dental Service (PDS) guidelines with a risk assessment program, the Cariogram. Materials and methods. All 19-year-old patients registered at eight public dental...... clinics were invited to participate (n = 1699). The study group who completed the baseline examination consisted of 1295 subjects representing 10% of all 19 year-olds attending dental care at the PDS in Skåne, Sweden. A risk classification of each patient was made by the patient's regular team according...... to the PDS guidelines. A research team collected whole saliva samples and information from a questionnaire and a structured interview in order to calculate risk according to the Cariogram model. Results. The mean DFS value was 4.9 and 23% of the patients were registered as caries-free (DFS = 0). The PDS risk...

  18. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world-The Roskilde recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selck, Henriette; Adamsen, Peter B; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary T; Bruce, Peter K H; Burton, G Allen; Butts, Michael B; Boegh, Eva; Clague, John J; Dinh, Khuong V; Doorn, Neelke; Gunnarsson, Jonas S; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Hazlerigg, Charles; Hunka, Agnieszka D; Jensen, John; Lin, Yan; Loureiro, Susana; Miraglia, Simona; Munns, Wayne R; Nadim, Farrokh; Palmqvist, Annemette; Rämö, Robert A; Seaby, Lauren P; Syberg, Kristian; Tangaa, Stine R; Thit, Amalie; Windfeld, Ronja; Zalewski, Maciej; Chapman, Peter M

    2017-01-01

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk-Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological context for assessments in human-modified systems; 8) assess risks and benefits to humans and the ecosystem and consider unintended consequences of management actions; 9) avoid excessive conservatism or possible underprotection resulting from sole reliance on binary, numerical benchmarks; and 10) develop adaptive risk-management and regulatory goals based on ranges of uncertainty. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:7-16. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  19. 78 FR 47272 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment and Environmental Assessment for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-05

    ..., DC, this 31st day of July 2013. Kevin Shea, Administrator, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service [Docket No. APHIS-2012-0020] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment and Environmental Assessment for Determination of...

  20. Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    alternative root be economically advantageous , an actor’s ability to exploit market forces and create an alternative root would be significantly improved...conduct their operations. Therefore, a loss or disruption to Internet services would not be advantageous for the desired outcomes of these syndicates.26... eCommerce Service loss or disruption [C] Traffic Redirection [C] = Undesired consequence Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment

  1. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  2. 78 FR 66892 - BASF Plant Science LP; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment and Environmental Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-07

    .... Kevin Shea, Administrator, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. [FR Doc. 2013-26701 Filed 11-6-13... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service [Docket No. APHIS-2012-0028] BASF Plant Science LP; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment and Environmental Assessment for...

  3. Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

    2009-04-01

    There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

  4. Reconceptualising risk: Perceptions of risk in rural and remote maternity service planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, Lesley; Kornelsen, Jude; Longman, Jo; Robin, Sarah; Kruske, Sue; Kildea, Sue; Pilcher, Jennifer; Martin, Tanya; Grzybowski, Stefan; Donoghue, Deborah; Rolfe, Margaret; Morgan, Geoff

    2016-07-01

    to explore perceptions and examples of risk related to pregnancy and childbirth in rural and remote Australia and how these influence the planning of maternity services. data collection in this qualitative component of a mixed methods study included 88 semi-structured individual and group interviews (n=102), three focus groups (n=22) and one group information session (n=17). Researchers identified two categories of risk for exploration: health services risk (including clinical and corporate risks) and social risk (including cultural, emotional and financial risks). Data were aggregated and thematically analysed to identify perceptions and examples of risk related to each category. fieldwork was conducted in four jurisdictions at nine sites in rural (n=3) and remote (n=6) Australia. 117 health service employees and 24 consumers. examples and perceptions relating to each category of risk were identified from the data. Most medical practitioners and health service managers perceived clinical risks related to rural birthing services without access to caesarean section. Consumer participants were more likely to emphasise social risks arising from a lack of local birthing services. our analysis demonstrated that the closure of services adds social risk, which exacerbates clinical risk. Analysis also highlighted that perceptions of clinical risk are privileged over social risk in decisions about rural and remote maternity service planning. a comprehensive analysis of risk that identifies how social and other forms of risk contribute to adverse clinical outcomes would benefit rural and remote people and their health services. Formal risk analyses should consider the risks associated with failure to provide birthing services in rural and remote communities as well as the risks of maintaining services. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. The applications of risk-informed in-service-inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ting, K.; Ko, T.-H.; Li, Y.-C.; Wu, W.-F.; Lu, Y.-L.; Chien, F.-T.

    2005-01-01

    The US NRC and nuclear industry encouraged the applications of risk-informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI) which can be an alternative program to the ASME Section XI In-service Inspection requirements. The Implementation of RI-ISI can improve the substantial cost as well as does reductions. From the aspect of defense in depth for nuclear safety, the achievements of these procedures can identify the inspection rank to promote the integrity of the current inspection program. Thus, this study utilizes this techniques to implement risk assessment on safety class 1 recirculation piping welds where sensitized to IGSCC of Taibei BWR-6 nuclear power plant. In the evaluation process, WinPraise code is used to calculate the failure probabilities of all welds. The result of risk evaluations can be referred to the further regulatory and plant operation. (authors)

  6. Usage of Geoprocessing Services in Precision Forestry for Wood Volume Calculation and Wind Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Mikita

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the idea of a precision forestry tool for optimizing clearcut size and shape within the process of forest recovery and its publishing in the form of a web processing service for forest owners on the Internet. The designed tool titled COWRAS (Clearcut Optimization and Wind Risk Assessment is developed for optimization of clearcuts (their location, shape, size, and orientation with subsequent wind risk assessment. The tool primarily works with airborne LiDAR data previously processed to the form of a digital surface model (DSM and a digital elevation model (DEM. In the first step, the growing stock on the planned clearcut determined by its location and area in feature class is calculated (by the method of individual tree detection. Subsequently tree heights from canopy height model (CHM are extracted and then diameters at breast height (DBH and wood volume using the regressions are calculated. Information about wood volume of each tree in the clearcut is exported and summarized in a table. In the next step, all trees in the clearcut are removed and a new DSM without trees in the clearcut is generated. This canopy model subsequently serves as an input for evaluation of wind risk damage by the MAXTOPEX tool (Mikita et al., 2012. In the final raster, predisposition of uncovered forest stand edges (around the clearcut to wind risk is calculated based on this analysis. The entire tool works in the background of ArcGIS server as a spatial decision support system for foresters.

  7. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing...... the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...... (biodiversity) and the functional (ecosystem services) aspects of the environment, this new approach includes methods for assessing both aspects for the first time in a pest risk assessment scheme. A list of questions has been developed for the assessor to evaluate the consequences for structural biodiversity...

  8. Nuclear plant service water system aging degradation assessment: Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarrell, D.B.; Johnson, A.B. Jr.; Zimmerman, P.W.; Gore, M.L.

    1989-06-01

    The initial phase of an aging assessment of nuclear power plant service water systems (SWSs) was performed by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory to support the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) program. The SWS was selected for study because of its essential role in the mitigation of and recovery from accident scenarios involving the potential for core-melt. The objectives of the SWS task under the NPAR program are to identify and characterize the principal aging degradation mechanisms relevant to this system and assess their impact on operational readiness, and to provide a methodology for the mitigation of aging on the service water aspect of nuclear plant safety. The first two of these objectives have been met and are covered in this Phase 1 report. A review of available literature and data-base information indicated that motor operated valve torque switches (an electro-mechanical device) were the prime suspect in component service water systems failures. More extensive and detailed data obtained from cooperating utility maintenance records and personnel accounts contradicted this conclusion indicating that biologic and inorganic accumulation and corrosive attack of service water on component surfaces were, in fact, the primary degradation mechanisms. A review of the development of time dependent risk assessment (aging) models shows that, as yet, this methodology has not been developed to a degree where implementation is reliable. Improvements in the accuracy of failure data documentation and time dependent risk analysis methodology should yield significant gains in relating aging phenomena to probabilistic risk assessment. 23 refs., 8 figs., 10 tabs

  9. Tooth wear risk assessment and care-planning in general dental practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Toole, S; Khan, M; Patel, A; Patel, N J; Shah, N; Bartlett, D; Movahedi, S

    2018-03-09

    Objective To assess charting, risk assessment and treatment-planning of tooth wear between recently qualified and experienced dentists in general dental practice.Design Service evaluation.Setting Multi-setting evaluation of three mixed NHS/Private general dental practices in North-East London.Methods The clinical notes of new patient examinations on dentate adults presenting from the 1 October 2016 to 31 December 2016 were audited collecting data on tooth wear charting, risk assessment and treatment planning. Data were analysed using descriptives, chi square and logistic regressions in SPSS. Significance was inferred at p charted for 48% of those attending foundation dentists and 5% of those attending experienced dentists. Diet was assessed in 50.6% of patients examined by foundation dentists and 1.0% of patients examined by experienced dentists. Foundation dentists were more likely to chart tooth wear, risk assess and preventively manage tooth wear compared to experienced dentists (p <0.001).Conclusion This service evaluation highlights that improvements are required in recording, risk assessing and preventive treatment planning of erosive tooth wear. Experienced dentists were less likely to risk assess tooth wear and less likely to provide preventive treatment. Experienced GDPs may benefit from re-training in this area.

  10. Risk informed In-service Inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corak, Z.

    2003-01-01

    Safety of nuclear power plants is one of the most important conditions for their acceptance. Safety is being acheived by numerous methods and techniques in phase of design, manufacturing and maintenance of the nuclear power plants. In-service Inspection (ISI) has a significant role in avoidances of failure in components of nuclear power plants just the same as in assurance of their integrity. Non-destructive examinations are performed periodically in accordance with 10 CFR 50 50.55a and ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code section XI which is referenced by 10 CFR 50.55a. Nondestructive examinations provide information about a current condition of equipment at nuclear power plants and about any damage, defect or degradation mechanism. A lot of effort is often spent in situations in which the probability of failure and their effects on safety have a very low impact. Practical experience shows that failures can often occur at locations where the inspection has never been performed. Costs and expenses of in-service inspections are very high. Therefore, the accent has to be on locations with significant risk to safety. Many years of nuclear power plants' operation and maintenance have resulted in a more broad knowledge of degradation mechanism and the most susceptible locations and huge databases of different nuclear power plants' components. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the nuclear industry have recognized that probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has developed and changed to be more useful in improvement of traditional engineering approaches in nuclear power plants regulation. After the publication of its policy statement on the use of PRA in nuclear regulatory activities, the Commission ordered the NRC staff to develop a regulatory framework that incorporated risk insights. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) initiated Code Case N-560, N-577, and N-578 that address the importance of categorization and inspection of piping using risk

  11. CREDIT RISK MINIMIZATION WAYS AND PRICING OF BANKING SERVICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. E. Gladkova

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate accounting of own expenses on rendering banking services and forming reasonable prices for them make it possible for commercial banks to adequately react to market situation changes. Credit risk minimization comprises: credit rationing (in Russia according to RF Central Bank norms; credit diversification; credit structuring; and forming reserves to cover respective bank risks (also in accordance with RF CB documents. Effective is bank credit hedging (insuring through credit derivatives. Most advanced at international finance markets are such risk minimization systems as Basel-II and IRBA. Pricing models based on individual assessment of each borrower’s risk class (Risk Based Pricing approach are widely used.

  12. A Guide to the Application of Probability Risk Assessment Methodology and Hazard Risk Frequency Criteria as a Hazard Control for the Use of the Mobile Servicing System on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'silva, Oneil; Kerrison, Roger

    2013-09-01

    A key feature for the increased utilization of space robotics is to automate Extra-Vehicular manned space activities and thus significantly reduce the potential for catastrophic hazards while simultaneously minimizing the overall costs associated with manned space. The principal scope of the paper is to evaluate the use of industry standard accepted Probability risk/safety assessment (PRA/PSA) methodologies and Hazard Risk frequency Criteria as a hazard control. This paper illustrates the applicability of combining the selected Probability risk assessment methodology and hazard risk frequency criteria, in order to apply the necessary safety controls that allow for the increased use of the Mobile Servicing system (MSS) robotic system on the International Space Station. This document will consider factors such as component failure rate reliability, software reliability, and periods of operation and dormancy, fault tree analyses and their effects on the probability risk assessments. The paper concludes with suggestions for the incorporation of existing industry Risk/Safety plans to create an applicable safety process for future activities/programs

  13. A Real-Time Location-Based Services System Using WiFi Fingerprinting Algorithm for Safety Risk Assessment of Workers in Tunnels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Lin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the feasibility of a real-time tunnel location-based services (LBS system to provide workers’ safety protection and various services in concrete dam site. In this study, received signal strength- (RSS- based location using fingerprinting algorithm and artificial neural network (ANN risk assessment is employed for position analysis. This tunnel LBS system achieves an online, real-time, intelligent tracking identification feature, and the on-site running system has many functions such as worker emergency call, track history, and location query. Based on ANN with a strong nonlinear mapping, and large-scale parallel processing capabilities, proposed LBS system is effective to evaluate the risk management on worker safety. The field implementation shows that the proposed location algorithm is reliable and accurate (3 to 5 meters enough for providing real-time positioning service. The proposed LBS system is demonstrated and firstly applied to the second largest hydropower project in the world, to track workers on tunnel site and assure their safety. The results show that the system is simple and easily deployed.

  14. Do Service Users with Intellectual Disabilities Want to Be Involved in the Risk Management Process? A Thematic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilcommons, Aoiffe M.; Withers, Paul; Moreno-Lopez, Agueda

    2012-01-01

    Background: Involving ID service users in risk decision making necessitates consideration of an individual's ability to assess the implications and associated risks and thus make an informed choice. This calls for research on service users' awareness and understanding of risk management (RM). Method: Thirteen people in a residential ID service who…

  15. The comparative risk assessment framework and tools (CRAFT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southern Research Station. USDA Forest Service

    2010-01-01

    To help address these challenges, the USDA Forest Service’s Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center (EFETAC) and the University of North Carolina Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC) designed a planning framework, called the Comparative Risk Assessment Framework and Tools (CRAFT). CRAFT is...

  16. Health risk assessment of ambient air concentrations of benzene, toluene and xylene (BTX) in service station environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edokpolo, Benjamin; Yu, Qiming Jimmy; Connell, Des

    2014-06-18

    A comprehensive evaluation of the adverse health effects of human exposures to BTX from service station emissions was carried out using BTX exposure data from the scientific literature. The data was grouped into different scenarios based on activity, location and occupation and plotted as Cumulative Probability Distributions (CPD) plots. Health risk was evaluated for each scenario using the Hazard Quotient (HQ) at 50% (CEXP50) and 95% (CEXP95) exposure levels. HQ50 and HQ95 > 1 were obtained with benzene in the scenario for service station attendants and mechanics repairing petrol dispensing pumps indicating a possible health risk. The risk was minimized for service stations using vapour recovery systems which greatly reduced the benzene exposure levels. HQ50 and HQ95 service station attendants than any other scenario.

  17. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon levels and risk assessment for food from service facilities in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Shin-Woong; Jeong, Jun-Hyun; Her, Jae-Young; Kim, Mina K; Lee, Kwang-Geun

    2017-06-01

    In this study, levels of benzo[a]anthracene, chrysene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), dibenzo[a,h]anthracene, benzo[g,h,i]perylene and indeno[1,2,3-c,d]pyrene in 412 food items collected from food service facilities in Korea were analysed. The concentrations of the eight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) ranged 0.13-0.48 μg/kg. The concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene in all food samples were foods regulated by European Union legislation. PAH contents were employed to conduct exposure and risk assessment. The chronic daily intake of PAHs from 412 food samples was 5.48 × 10 -6 -4.70 ×x 10 -4  µg-TEQ BaP /kg/day with margins of exposure of 1.04 × 10 9 -1.16 × 10 11 .

  18. The Feasibility of Embedding Data Collection into the Routine Service Delivery of a Multi-Component Program for High-Risk Young People.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Alice; Havard, Alys; Shakeshaft, Anthony; Maple, Myfanwy; Snijder, Mieke; Shakeshaft, Bernie

    2017-02-20

    There is little evidence about how to improve outcomes for high-risk young people, of whom Indigenous young people are disproportionately represented, due to few evaluation studies of interventions. One way to increase the evidence is to have researchers and service providers collaborate to embed evaluation into the routine delivery of services, so program delivery and evaluation occur simultaneously. This study aims to demonstrate the feasibility of integrating best-evidence measures into the routine data collection processes of a service for high-risk young people, and identify the number and nature of risk factors experienced by participants. The youth service is a rural based NGO comprised of multiple program components: (i) engagement activities; (ii) case management; (iii) diversionary activities; (iv) personal development; and (v) learning and skills. A best-evidence assessment tool was developed by staff and researchers and embedded into the service's existing intake procedure. Assessment items were organised into demographic characteristics and four domains of risk: education and employment; health and wellbeing; substance use; and crime. Descriptive data are presented and summary risk variables were created for each domain of risk. A count of these summary variables represented the number of co-occurring risks experienced by each participant. The feasibility of this process was determined by the proportion of participants who completed the intake assessment and provided research consent. This study shows 85% of participants completed the assessment tool demonstrating that data on participant risk factors can feasibly be collected by embedding a best-evidence assessment tool into the routine data collection processes of a service. The most prevalent risk factors were school absence, unemployment, suicide ideation, mental distress, substance use, low levels of physical activity, low health service utilisation, and involvement in crime or with the juvenile

  19. Optimizing and Validating a Brief Assessment for Identifying Children of Service Members at Risk for Psychological Health Problems Following Parent Deployment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-01

    Journal of Family Therapy, 21, 313-323. Behar, L.B. (1997). The Preschool Behavior Questionnaire. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology , 5, 265-275... Psychological Health Problems Following Parent Deployment PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Julie Wargo Aikins, PhD CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: Wayne State...Validating a Brief Assessment for Identifying Children of Service Members at Risk for Psychological Health Problems Following Parent Deployment 5b. GRANT

  20. Employee Health Service for Teaching and Nonteaching Staff: A Needs Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Bonita C.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    A needs assessment was conducted to identify the health needs of school district employees in planning a comprehensive employee health service. Survey questionnaires were analyzed to determine characteristics of those individuals who may be at greatest health risk. Results indicate that degree of stress can differentiate health risk predictors.…

  1. THE ALGORITHM IMPLEMENTATION OF THE RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM ON THE MARKET OF TOURIST SERVICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Agafonov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. In the article the author conducted a comprehensive assessment of the factors and the level of operational risk, environmental risk, security risk, political risk, marketing risk, economic risk and infrastructure risk market of tourist services in Russia in 2015. As a result of the analysis of risks and measures for risk management, applied in Russian market of tourist services has now been found that the most serious risk is the risk of reducing the demand for travel companies for various reasons, the main of which is the reduction of incomes of the population and the preference of consumers to buy tourism services directly from the enterprises in the hospitality without the participation of tourist companies through the spread of information and communication technologies. It offers innovative risk manag ement tools in the field of tourism companies and the market of tourist services, such as: creating a site with reviews based on tourism and the provision of professional advice on tourism for their customers; collaboration with the insurance companies and the provision of a large insurance tourists from unsuccessful rest and bad experiences; sales booked, but hotel rooms sold abroad at an auction; creation of a network of hotels where you can pay in Russian rubles. An author algorithm implementation of the risk management system on the market of tourist services.

  2. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duenas-Espin, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Carles Contel, Joan; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M. H.; Lluch-Ariet, Magi; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastia; Schonenberg, Helen; Stoerk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

  3. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

  4. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  5. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  6. ILO activities in the field of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinnagoda, C [Occupational Safety and Health Branch, Working Conditions and Environment Department, International Labor Organization, Geneva (Switzerland)

    1992-07-01

    Control of chemical risks has become a matter of increasing concern for the occupational safety and health activities of the ILO. Its chemical safety programme focuses attention on a series of comprehensive measures to promote national level action for effective control of chemical risks aimed at the protection of workers and consequently of the general public. The supply and use of information based on risk assessment for exposure control and the application of practical improvement measures through improved risk management and training continue to receive increasing importance. The important and direct role of employers and workers in the assessment of risks and planning and implementation of workplace improvements is an identified need. Risk assessment is a component of the chemical safety programme of the ILO that places significant emphasis on: the setting of international standards that lay down basic principles in chemical risk assessment and control; national level action to promote coherent policies and programmes on safety in the use of chemicals and prevention of industrial disasters (major hazard control); technical advisory services through the development of guides and training programmes that focus on workplace participatory approaches; collection and dissemination of practical information; and technical co-operation assistance to developing countries.

  7. ILO activities in the field of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinnagoda, C.

    1992-01-01

    Control of chemical risks has become a matter of increasing concern for the occupational safety and health activities of the ILO. Its chemical safety programme focuses attention on a series of comprehensive measures to promote national level action for effective control of chemical risks aimed at the protection of workers and consequently of the general public. The supply and use of information based on risk assessment for exposure control and the application of practical improvement measures through improved risk management and training continue to receive increasing importance. The important and direct role of employers and workers in the assessment of risks and planning and implementation of workplace improvements is an identified need. Risk assessment is a component of the chemical safety programme of the ILO that places significant emphasis on: the setting of international standards that lay down basic principles in chemical risk assessment and control; national level action to promote coherent policies and programmes on safety in the use of chemicals and prevention of industrial disasters (major hazard control); technical advisory services through the development of guides and training programmes that focus on workplace participatory approaches; collection and dissemination of practical information; and technical co-operation assistance to developing countries

  8. Safety assessment of nuclear medicine practice using the Risk Matrix Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, Dumenigo; Cruz, Yoanis; Soler, Karen; Guerrero, Mayka

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the main results from the application of the methodology of Risk Matrices in a hypothetical service / department of the Nuclear medicine that realize metabolic radiotherapy treatment and diagnostic studies with 131 I and 99 m Tc and 18 F. We could identify major equipment failures and human errors that could potentially lead to a accident in practice. For each analyzed initiating events evaluated the frequency of occurrence, identified key existing defenses to avoid the accident and assessed the potential consequences of an accident if this comes to fruition. With this methodology we could identify which accident sequences increased risk and to propose means to reduce the risk in such cases. As a result of this work was developed the 'RMA Nuclear Medicine' computer tools that will apply this methodology in nuclear medicine services that need to do similar risk assessments

  9. Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horie, Seichi

    2010-09-01

    Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  10. Occupational Health Policies on Risk Assessment in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seichi Horie

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law of Japan requires abnormalities identifi ed in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording “employers shall endeavor.” Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifi es criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer signifi cant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, fi nancial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  11. Navigating complexity through knowledge coproduction: Mainstreaming ecosystem services into disaster risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyers, Belinda; Nel, Jeanne L; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Sitas, Nadia; Nel, Deon C

    2015-06-16

    Achieving the policy and practice shifts needed to secure ecosystem services is hampered by the inherent complexities of ecosystem services and their management. Methods for the participatory production and exchange of knowledge offer an avenue to navigate this complexity together with the beneficiaries and managers of ecosystem services. We develop and apply a knowledge coproduction approach based on social-ecological systems research and assess its utility in generating shared knowledge and action for ecosystem services. The approach was piloted in South Africa across four case studies aimed at reducing the risk of disasters associated with floods, wildfires, storm waves, and droughts. Different configurations of stakeholders (knowledge brokers, assessment teams, implementers, and bridging agents) were involved in collaboratively designing each study, generating and exchanging knowledge, and planning for implementation. The approach proved useful in the development of shared knowledge on the sizable contribution of ecosystem services to disaster risk reduction. This knowledge was used by stakeholders to design and implement several actions to enhance ecosystem services, including new investments in ecosystem restoration, institutional changes in the private and public sector, and innovative partnerships of science, practice, and policy. By bringing together multiple disciplines, sectors, and stakeholders to jointly produce the knowledge needed to understand and manage a complex system, knowledge coproduction approaches offer an effective avenue for the improved integration of ecosystem services into decision making.

  12. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  13. Ordinary risks and accepted fictions: how contrasting and competing priorities work in risk assessment and mental health care planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffey, Michael; Cohen, Rachel; Faulkner, Alison; Hannigan, Ben; Simpson, Alan; Barlow, Sally

    2017-06-01

    Communication and information sharing are considered crucial to recovery-focused mental health services. Effective mental health care planning and coordination includes assessment and management of risk and safety. Using data from our cross-national mixed-method study of care planning and coordination, we examined what patients, family members and workers say about risk assessment and management and explored the contents of care plans. Thematic analysis of qualitative research interviews (n = 117) with patients, family members and workers, across four English and two Welsh National Health Service sites. Care plans were reviewed (n = 33) using a structured template. Participants have contrasting priorities in relation to risk. Patients see benefit in discussions about risk, but cast the process as a worker priority that may lead to loss of liberty. Relationships with workers are key to family members and patients; however, worker claims of involving people in the care planning process do not extend to risk assessment and management procedures for fear of causing upset. Workers locate risk as coming from the person rather than social or environmental factors, are risk averse and appear to prioritize the procedural aspects of assessment. Despite limitations, risk assessment is treated as legitimate work by professionals. Risk assessment practice operates as a type of fiction in which poor predictive ability and fear of consequences are accepted in the interests of normative certainty by all parties. As a consequence, risk adverse options are encouraged by workers and patients steered away from opportunities for ordinary risks thereby hindering the mobilization of their strengths and abilities. © 2016 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  15. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  16. Risk informed approach to the in-service inspection activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korosec, D.; Vojvodic Tuma, J.

    2004-01-01

    In the present paper, the aspects of Risk Informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI) are discussed. Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) and its authorized organization for the ISI activities, Institute of Metals and Technologies (IMT), are actually permanently involved in the ISI processes of the nuclear power plant (NPP) Krsko. Based on the previous experience on the ISI activities, evaluation of the results and review of the existing practice in nuclear world, the activities are started to asses the piping of systems in the light of probability of failure. This is so called Risk Informed approach. By the design established criteria, standards and practice gives good fundaments for the improvements implementation. Improvements can be done on the way that the more broad knowledge about safety important components of the systems shall bee added to the basic practice. It is necessary to identify conditions of the safety important components, such as realistic stress and fatigue conditions, material properties changes due aging processes, the temperature cycling effects, existing flaws characterization in the light of the previous detection and equipment technique used, assessment of the measurement accuracy on the results etc. In addition to this deterministic approach, the principles of risk evaluation methods should be used. NPP Krsko has, as practically majority of NPP's, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies for all safety important systems and components. The methods and results from these studies can be efficiently used to upgrade classical deterministic results, based on which the in-service program as a whole is usually done. In addition to the above mentioned, risk assessment and evaluation of the piping shall be done, which is not covered by the existing PRA analysis. To do this it is necessary to made risk evaluation of the piping segments, based on previous structural element probability assessment. Probabilistic risk assessment is important

  17. The role of service learning in teaching and research for disaster-risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suckale, J.; Saiyed, Z.; Alvisyahrin, T.; Hilley, G. E.; Muhari, A.; Zoback, M. L. C.; Truebe, S.

    2016-12-01

    An important motivation for natural-hazards research is to reduce threats posed by natural disasters to at-risk communities. Yet, we rarely teach students how research may be used to construct implementable solutions that reduce disaster risk. The goal of this contribution is to evaluate the potential of service learning to impart students with both the scientific background and the skills necessary to navigate real-world constraints of disaster risk reduction. We present results from a service-learning class taught at Stanford in the Winter quarter of 2016 in collaboration with the Indonesian Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries and Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh. The main deliverable of the class was a final project in which students developed a specific idea of how to contribute to tsunami-risk reduction in Indonesia. A common critique of the service-learning approach posits that it may implicitly embed social and political perspectives within risk-reduction strategies that may be inappropriate within a particular culture. We attempted to avoid this problem using three strategies: First, we paired students from Stanford with students at Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, to facilitate a close dialogue. Second, the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries provided a list of current risk-reduction strategies without requiring students to contribute to one specific project to minimally precondition project suggestions. Third, our community partners provided ongoing feedback on the scope and feasibility of the proposed projects and students were assessed based on their ability to integrate the feedback. Preliminary results from our class suggest significant promise for a service-learning approach to teaching disaster-risk reduction. There was substantial student interest in service learning, particularly among undergraduates. Pre-and post-assessment surveys showed that over 75% of students adjusted previous notions about disaster-risk reduction during the

  18. The Feasibility of Embedding Data Collection into the Routine Service Delivery of a Multi-Component Program for High-Risk Young People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice Knight

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: There is little evidence about how to improve outcomes for high-risk young people, of whom Indigenous young people are disproportionately represented, due to few evaluation studies of interventions. One way to increase the evidence is to have researchers and service providers collaborate to embed evaluation into the routine delivery of services, so program delivery and evaluation occur simultaneously. This study aims to demonstrate the feasibility of integrating best-evidence measures into the routine data collection processes of a service for high-risk young people, and identify the number and nature of risk factors experienced by participants. Methods: The youth service is a rural based NGO comprised of multiple program components: (i engagement activities; (ii case management; (iii diversionary activities; (iv personal development; and (v learning and skills. A best-evidence assessment tool was developed by staff and researchers and embedded into the service’s existing intake procedure. Assessment items were organised into demographic characteristics and four domains of risk: education and employment; health and wellbeing; substance use; and crime. Descriptive data are presented and summary risk variables were created for each domain of risk. A count of these summary variables represented the number of co-occurring risks experienced by each participant. The feasibility of this process was determined by the proportion of participants who completed the intake assessment and provided research consent. Results: This study shows 85% of participants completed the assessment tool demonstrating that data on participant risk factors can feasibly be collected by embedding a best-evidence assessment tool into the routine data collection processes of a service. The most prevalent risk factors were school absence, unemployment, suicide ideation, mental distress, substance use, low levels of physical activity, low health service utilisation

  19. Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessments are often criticised for defending activities that could harm the environment and human health. The risk assessments produce numbers which are used to prove that the risk associated with the activity is acceptable. In this way, risk assessments seem to be a tool generally serving business. Government agencies have based their regulations on the use of risk assessment and the prevailing practise is supported by the regulations. In this paper, we look more closely into this critique. Are risk assessments being misused or are risk assessments simply not a suitable tool for guiding decision-making in the face of risks and uncertainties? Is the use of risk assessments not servicing public interests? We argue that risk assessments may provide useful decision support but the quality of the risk assessments and the associated risk assessment processes need to be improved. In this paper, three main improvement areas (success factors) are identified and discussed: (1) the scientific basis of the risk assessments needs to be strengthened, (2) the risk assessments need to provide a much broader risk picture than what is typically the case today. Separate uncertainty analyses should be carried out, extending the traditional probabilistic-based analyses and (3) the cautionary and precautionary principles need to be seen as rational risk management approaches, and their application would, to a large extent, be based on risk and uncertainty assessments.

  20. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Risk assessment to an integrated planning model for UST programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, K.W.

    1993-01-01

    The US Postal Service maintains the largest civilian fleet in the United States totaling approximately 180,000 vehicles. To support the fleets daily energy requirements, the Postal Service also operates one of the largest networks of underground storage tanks nearly 7,500 nationwide. A program to apply risk assessment to planning, budget development and other management actions was implemented during September, 1989. Working closely with a consultant, the postal service developed regulatory and environmental risk criteria and weighting factors for a ranking model. The primary objective was to identify relative risks for each underground tank at individual facilities. Relative risks at each facility were determined central to prioritizing scheduled improvements to the tank network. The survey was conducted on 302 underground tanks in the Northeast Region of the US. An environmental and regulatory risk score was computed for each UST. By ranking the tanks according to their risk score, tanks were classified into management action categories including, but the limited to, underground tank testing, retrofit, repair, replacement and closure

  2. Actuarial assessment of violence risk in hospital-based partner assault clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilton, N Zoe; Harris, Grant T; Holder, Norah

    2008-12-01

    Hospital-based partner assault clinics are a relatively recent addition to the community response to partner violence. In this study, 66% of 111 women attending hospital clinics for partner assault were physically injured and 43% reported death threats. Few concurrently used other services (shelters or police) and most relied on female friends and relatives for help. Many participants who currently lived with the perpetrator were contemplating leaving but only a third had made plans to do so. Participants faced an unusually high risk of future assault, according to both victim interview using the ODARA actuarial risk assessment and their own perceptions. Findings imply an important role for partner assault clinics and the feasibility of the victim service sector's using the same actuarial risk assessments as the criminal justice system.

  3. Applicability of PSA Issues for Risk Assessment during Optimisation of In-Service Inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolykhanov, V.; Skalozubov, V.; Kovrigkin, Y.

    2006-01-01

    The current codes determining periodicity of in-service inspection of the NPP equipment have been formed using deterministic approaches and have an unnecessary degree of conservatism. A perspective direction of perfection of normative base is decision making on a basis of risk-informed methodologies. It allows to increase safety of NPP equipment's operation and to optimise programs on inspection of the equipment subject to limited resources by focusing efforts on the most safety significant elements of the equipment. It is internationally accepted that methodology of the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is the most universal and comprehensive tool focused on the general assessment of safety of NPP as a whole. By now, PSA Level 1 is fulfilled for all pilot units of the Ukrainian NPPs that is a valuable result, which should be taken into account at an assessment of reliability of the equipment. However, specificity of PSA methodology should be taken into account at the decision of the particular tasks aimed at optimisation of maintenance of the equipment within individual systems. The estimation of the contribution to core damage frequency (CDF) is a PSA issue usually used to assess the significance of consequences of failure of a system/equipment during risk-informed decision-making. This work shows that above factor is only a part of assessment of the significance of consequences as core damage can be expressed in different amount of the damaged fuel elements and, hence, severity of consequences. Besides CDF is directly affected only by active elements which failure can be an initiating event. PSA methodology uses averaged reliability factors of the equipment for all possible operating modes occurring at transitive accident process. Here, there are limited opportunities to account impact of periodicity of maintenance of the equipment on reliability and to predict impact of change of the inspection program. PSA methodology does not allow taking into account

  4. The Westgate Service and Related Referral, Assessment, and Treatment Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Alice L

    2015-12-01

    The formerly named "Dangerous and Severe Personality Disorder" (DSPD) units are no longer standalone services within the criminal justice system in England and Wales. These sites now provide personality disorder treatment services in the high-security prison estate as part of the new national Offender Personality Disorder (OPD) Pathway Strategy. The OPD Pathway intends to take responsibility for the assessment, treatment, and management of offenders who are likely to have a personality disorder and who present a high risk of re-offending (men and women) and serious harm to others (men). Further PD treatment and progression services are being commissioned in lower security prisons and in the community as part of the new PD Strategy. While the suitability criteria for the two male high-security PD treatment sites are the same, the individual units have their own assessment and treatment methods. This article aims to communicate the referral, assessment, and treatment methods employed within the prison-based Westgate Personality Disorder Treatment Service, HMP Frankland. © The Author(s) 2014.

  5. Risk Assessment and Life Cycle Assessment, Environmental Strategies, Nordic Workshop, Vedbæk 1999

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poll, Christian

    At a Nordic workshop on Product-oriented Environmental Strategies the roles of risk and hazard assessment and life cycle assessment of products in the future regulation of chemicals were discussed by participants representing administration, academia and industry from the Nordic countries....... This report compiles the papers and presentations given at the workshop. The papers present and discuss the different assessment tools and procedures - for individual chemicals through hazard and risk assessments and for products, materials and services through life-cycle assessment. The report also contains......, consultants and private enterprises to consider these well-established tools as individually necessary for the future regulation of the chemical pressure on the environment and to accept them as complementary to each other. Together with other process- or chain oriented tools like Substance or Material Flow...

  6. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-13

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  7. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-01

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  8. Data security and risk assessment in cloud computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jing

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing has attracted more and more attention as it reduces the cost of IT infrastructure of organizations. In our country, business Cloud services, such as Alibaba Cloud, Huawei Cloud, QingCloud, UCloud and so on are gaining more and more uses, especially small or median organizations. In the cloud service scenario, the program and data are migrating into cloud, resulting the lack of trust between customers and cloud service providers. However, the recent study on Cloud computing is mainly focused on the service side, while the data security and trust have not been sufficiently studied yet. This paper investigates into the data security issues from data life cycle which includes five steps when an organization uses Cloud computing. A data management framework is given out, including not only the data classification but also the risk management framework. Concretely, the data is divided into two varieties, business and personal information. And then, four classification levels (high, medium, low, normal according to the different extent of the potential adverse effect is introduced. With the help of classification, the administrators can identify the application or data to implement corresponding security controls. At last, the administrators conduct the risk assessment to alleviate the risk of data security. The trust between customers and cloud service providers will be strengthen through this way.

  9. INFORMATION SECURITY RISKS OPTIMIZATION IN CLOUDY SERVICES ON THE BASIS OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Zikratov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses theoretical aspects of secure cloud services creation for information processing of various confidentiality degrees. A new approach to the reasoning of information security composition in distributed computing structures is suggested, presenting the problem of risk assessment as an extreme problem of decisionmaking. Linear programming method application is proved to minimize the risk of information security for given performance security in compliance with the economic balance for the maintenance of security facilities and cost of services. An example is given to illustrate the obtained theoretical results.

  10. Assessment of Coastal Ecosystem Services for Conservation Strategies in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Min Gon; Kang, Hojeong; Choi, Sung-Uk

    2015-01-01

    Despite the fact that scientific and political consideration for ecosystem services has dramatically increased over the past decade, few studies have focused on marine and coastal ecosystem services for conservation strategies. We used an ecosystem services approach to assess spatial distributions of habitat risks and four ecosystem services (coastal protection, carbon storage, recreation, and aesthetic quality), and explored the tradeoffs among them in coastal areas of South Korea. Additionally, we analyzed how the social and ecological characteristics in coastal areas interact with conservation and development policies by using this approach. We found strong negative associations between the habitat risks and ecosystem services (aquaculture, carbon storage, recreation, and aesthetic quality) across the coastal counties. Our results showed that the intensity of the habitat risks and the provision of ecosystem services were significantly different between reclamation-dominated and conservation-dominated counties, except for coastal vulnerability. A generalized linear model suggested that reclamation projects were dependent on economic efficiency, whereas demographic pressures and habitat conditions influenced the designation of protected areas at a county level. The ecosystem services approach provided guidelines to achieve both sustainable development and environment conservation. By using the approach, we can select the priority areas for developments while we can minimize the degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. As cultural ecosystem services are evenly distributed throughout coastal areas of South Korea, decision makers may employ them to improve the conditions of coastal wetlands outside of protected areas.

  11. Assessment of Coastal Ecosystem Services for Conservation Strategies in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Min Gon; Kang, Hojeong; Choi, Sung-Uk

    2015-01-01

    Despite the fact that scientific and political consideration for ecosystem services has dramatically increased over the past decade, few studies have focused on marine and coastal ecosystem services for conservation strategies. We used an ecosystem services approach to assess spatial distributions of habitat risks and four ecosystem services (coastal protection, carbon storage, recreation, and aesthetic quality), and explored the tradeoffs among them in coastal areas of South Korea. Additionally, we analyzed how the social and ecological characteristics in coastal areas interact with conservation and development policies by using this approach. We found strong negative associations between the habitat risks and ecosystem services (aquaculture, carbon storage, recreation, and aesthetic quality) across the coastal counties. Our results showed that the intensity of the habitat risks and the provision of ecosystem services were significantly different between reclamation-dominated and conservation-dominated counties, except for coastal vulnerability. A generalized linear model suggested that reclamation projects were dependent on economic efficiency, whereas demographic pressures and habitat conditions influenced the designation of protected areas at a county level. The ecosystem services approach provided guidelines to achieve both sustainable development and environment conservation. By using the approach, we can select the priority areas for developments while we can minimize the degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. As cultural ecosystem services are evenly distributed throughout coastal areas of South Korea, decision makers may employ them to improve the conditions of coastal wetlands outside of protected areas. PMID:26221950

  12. Information systems outsourcing reasons and risks: a new assessment

    OpenAIRE

    González Ramírez, María Reyes; Gascó Gascó, José Luis; Llopis Taverner, Juan

    2010-01-01

    Outsourcing is currently going through a stage of unstoppable growth. This paper makes a proposal about the main reasons which may lead firms to adopt Outsourcing in Information Systems services. It will equally analyse the potential risks that IS clients are likely to face. An additional objective is to assess these reasons and risks in the case of large Spanish firms, while simultaneously examining their evolution over time. This study of outsourcing reasons and risks has been carried out f...

  13. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  14. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  15. A Cyber Security Risk Assessment Procedure for Digital I and C Systems in NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, J. G.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, C. K.; Kwon, K. C.; Lee, D. Y.

    2011-01-01

    Digital Instrumentation and Control (I and C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) use general digital technologies similar to those used in IT systems. However, one of significant differences between the two systems resides in the duration of their service life. The I and C systems in NPPs operate for more than 20 years. IT systems, on the other hand, are in service for about 3 to 5 years. Hence, a one-time risk assessment for IT systems is normally acceptable. In contrast, the risk assessment for the I and C systems in NPPs should be recursively performed during their longer operation life. A recursive procedure for cyber security risk assessment of the I and C systems in NPPs is studied and proposed in this paper

  16. A Cyber Security Risk Assessment Procedure for Digital I and C Systems in NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, J. G.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, C. K.; Kwon, K. C.; Lee, D. Y. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    Digital Instrumentation and Control (I and C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) use general digital technologies similar to those used in IT systems. However, one of significant differences between the two systems resides in the duration of their service life. The I and C systems in NPPs operate for more than 20 years. IT systems, on the other hand, are in service for about 3 to 5 years. Hence, a one-time risk assessment for IT systems is normally acceptable. In contrast, the risk assessment for the I and C systems in NPPs should be recursively performed during their longer operation life. A recursive procedure for cyber security risk assessment of the I and C systems in NPPs is studied and proposed in this paper

  17. Risk assessment to determine the advisability of seismic trip systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cummings, G.E.; Wells, J.E.

    1977-01-01

    Seismic trip (scram) systems have been used for many years on certain research, test, and production reactors, but not on commercial power reactors. An assessment is made of the risks associated with the presence and absence of such trip systems on power reactors. An attempt was made to go beyond the reactor per se and to consider the risks to society as a whole; for example, the advantages of tripping to avoid an earthquake-caused accident were weighed against the disadvantages associated with interrupting electric power in a time when it would be needed for emergency services. The comparative risk assessment was performed by means of fault tree analysis

  18. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  19. Lifetime assessment of service-exposed components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalwa, G.; Weber, H.

    1988-01-01

    A longtime prognosis on the operation of creep-exposed components requires a lifetime analysis. The basis for such an analysis can be improved by an analysis of microstructure and material properties. Actually the grade of material exhaustion has to be regarded as proper assessment quantity. However, stress and time safety also are valuable assessment quantities which should be taken into consideration, especially when the grade of exhaustion is uncertain because of inaccurate input parameters. A correct assessment of the damage state cannot be made without taking into consideration the failure mechanism which has to be assumed for a specific component. With respect to creep the most critical component of a steamline system is the pipe bend because of the risk of large damage events. For this case component metallography by replicas is suggested as preventive test method. The continuation of service of a creep damage pipe bend cannot be recommended. (orig./MM) [de

  20. Money laundering: correlation between risk assessment and suspicious transactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Cindori

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The risk assessment system was introduced in the Republic of Croatia in 2009, as a result of harmonization with international standards, especially the Directive 2005/60/EC on the prevention of the use of the financial system for the purpose of money laundering and terrorist financing. Risk assessment is an extensive concept which requires not only a legislative framework, but also the application of numerous criteria for its effective implementation in practice. Among these criteria are suspicious transactions, closely related to the assessment of the customer, transaction, product or service.The undeniable contribution of suspicious transactions to the quality of the risk assessment system will be confirmed by a statistical analysis of a number of West and East European countries. A combination of strict, but sufficiently flexible legal provisions governing the system for prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing and a statistical analysis of reported suspicious transactions will lead to conclusions that either support or represent criticism of the efficiency of application of the risk assessment system in practice.The aforementioned statistical analysis will show whether suspicious transactions are a reliable criterion for the risk assessment analysis, and whether they can be considered the only such criterion. There is a possibility that the findings of the analysis will be contradictory to those of some international studies.

  1. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  2. Perceived Risk in Service Consumption – a C2C Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Nicholls, Richard

    2008-01-01

    In the field of services marketing some attention has been paid to the theme of risks associated with purchasing and consuming services. The literature includes issues such as: the relative uncertainty of services and goods at various stages of consumption; types of perceived risk; difficulties associated with evaluating services; service organisation responses to consumer perceived risk; and consumer risk reduction strategies. This literature, however, focuses overwhelmingly on service consu...

  3. [Risk assessment for food preparation, cooking and service].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottica, Danilo; Grignani, Elena

    2014-01-01

    The restaurant and food preparation, cooking and distribution sector includes hotels, restaurants, catering, fast food, ecc. The restaurant and food preparation, cooking and distribution sector form a significant part of the Italian economy; they provide employment for a large number of people, both direct employees as well as part-time and contract staff. In this sector there are many hazards that can lead to a broad range of injuries and/or diseases to the workers. For the safety these hazards principally are slick floors, open flames, high temperature cooking surfaces, steam, knives and other cutting instruments and machineries. For the health: cleaning and disinfecting chemicals substances, cooking fumes and vapors, biological agents, heavy loads handling, thermal comfort, ecc. The paper presents an overview of the hazards in the sector and then make a focus on chemical risks identification and assessment to evaluate the workers' exposure (by skin adsorption and inhalation).

  4. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  5. Is risk assessment the new clinical model in public mental health?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Alex

    2013-12-01

    Australian public mental health services have seen a rapid adoption of risk assessment into clinical practice over the past decade. It is timely to review the role of risk assessment in clinical practice, evidence for its validity and to explore its role in clinical decision-making. There is little evidence to support the current form of risk assessment used in public mental health. The continued focus in risk may lead public psychiatrists into a bind where their specialist role is defined by a capacity that they do not fully possess. Further work is required to find ways of demonstrating our attention to the possibility of adverse outcomes whilst maintaining our skills and capacity to manage mental illness with complexity and balance within the limitations of rational decision-making.

  6. Benefits and risks of shared services in healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennewell, Suzanne; Baker, Laura

    2016-05-16

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore the experiences of staff in a large, public health service involved in transitioning support services to a shared services model. It aims to understand their perceptions of the benefits and risks arising from this change. Design/methodology/approach - Thematic analysis of qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with both service provider and customer agency staff was used to identify, analyze and report patterns of benefits and risks within data. Findings - Staff expressed the need for relevant subject-matter-experts to work within customer agencies to facilitate effective communication between the customer agency and shared services provider, reflecting observations found in out-sourcing literature. Research limitations/implications - Results point to significant challenges continuing to occur for shared services in healthcare. Risks identified suggest a more intimate relationship between clinical and support services than previously discussed. Originality/value - Previous discussion of the shared services model has not considered the skills, knowledge and ability required by staff in the customer agency. This research indicates that in the absence of such consideration, the concepts of the shared services model are weakened.

  7. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  8. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  9. Establishing a family risk assessment clinic for breast cancer.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Mulsow, Jurgen

    2012-02-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting European women and the leading cause of cancer-related death. A total of 15-20% of women who develop breast cancer have a family history and 5-10% a true genetic predisposition. The identification and screening of women at increased risk may allow early detection of breast cancer and improve prognosis. We established a family risk assessment clinic in May 2005 to assess and counsel women with a family history of breast cancer, to initiate surveillance, and to offer risk-reducing strategies for selected high-risk patients. Patients at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer according to NICE guidelines were accepted. Family history was determined by structured questionnaire and interview. Lifetime risk of developing breast cancer was calculated using Claus and Tyrer-Cuzick scoring. Risk of carrying a breast cancer-related gene mutation was calculated using the Manchester system. One thousand two hundred and forty-three patients have been referred. Ninety-two percent were at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer. Formal assessment of risk has been performed in 368 patients, 73% have a high lifetime risk of developing breast cancer, and 72% a Manchester score >or=16. BRCA1\\/2 mutations have been identified in 14 patients and breast cancer diagnosed in two. Our initial experience of family risk assessment has shown there to be a significant demand for this service. Identification of patients at increased risk of developing breast cancer allows us to provide individuals with accurate risk profiles, and enables patients to make informed choices regarding their follow-up and management.

  10. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  11. Nutritional Risk Screening 2002, Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire, Malnutrition Screening Tool, and Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool Are Good Predictors of Nutrition Risk in an Emergency Service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabito, Estela Iraci; Marcadenti, Aline; da Silva Fink, Jaqueline; Figueira, Luciane; Silva, Flávia Moraes

    2017-08-01

    There is an international consensus that nutrition screening be performed at the hospital; however, there is no "best tool" for screening of malnutrition risk in hospitalized patients. To evaluate (1) the accuracy of the MUST (Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool), MST (Malnutrition Screening Tool), and SNAQ (Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire) in comparison with the NRS-2002 (Nutritional Risk Screening 2002) to identify patients at risk of malnutrition and (2) the ability of these nutrition screening tools to predict morbidity and mortality. A specific questionnaire was administered to complete the 4 screening tools. Outcomes measures included length of hospital stay, transfer to the intensive care unit, presence of infection, and incidence of death. A total of 752 patients were included. The nutrition risk was 29.3%, 37.1%, 33.6%, and 31.3% according to the NRS-2002, MUST, MST, and SNAQ, respectively. All screening tools showed satisfactory performance to identify patients at nutrition risk (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.765-0.808). Patients at nutrition risk showed higher risk of very long length of hospital stay as compared with those not at nutrition risk, independent of the tool applied (relative risk, 1.35-1.78). Increased risk of mortality (2.34 times) was detected by the MUST. The MUST, MST, and SNAQ share similar accuracy to the NRS-2002 in identifying risk of malnutrition, and all instruments were positively associated with very long hospital stay. In clinical practice, the 4 tools could be applied, and the choice for one of them should be made per the particularities of the service.

  12. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  13. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  14. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  15. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystem services (ES) are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future, and include the production of food and drinking water, purification of air and water, pollination, and nutrient cycling. The n...

  16. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-04-15

    Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

  17. Parenting stress, coping strategies and risk assessment in mothers from at-risk families assisted by Child and Family Protection Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Pérez Padilla

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study parenting stress and coping strategies in a sample of 109 mothers from at-risk families were analyzed. Results obtained show over half of these women experienced clinical levels of parenting stress, and problem focused coping strategies were the most commonly used. Moreover, the main characteristics of these families and their trajectories in Child and Family Protection Services were correlated with parenting stress and coping strategies. The global valuation of family risk informed by professionals was significantly related to parenting stress.

  18. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  19. Environmental risk assessment for plant pests: a procedure to evaluate their impacts on ecosystem services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gilioli, G.; Schrader, G.; Baker, R.H.A.

    2014-01-01

    and temporal resolution is then used to explore how an IAS, as an exogenous driving force, may trigger modifications in the target environment. The method presented here provides a standardized approach to generate comparable and reproducible results for environmental risk assessment as a component of Pest...... Risk Analysis. The method enables the assessment of overall environmental risk which integrates the impacts on different components of the environment and their probabilities of occurrence. The application of the proposed scheme is illustrated by evaluating the environmental impacts of the invasive......The current methods to assess the environmental impacts of plant pests differ in their approaches and there is a lack of the standardized procedures necessary to provide accurate and consistent results, demonstrating the complexity of developing a commonly accepted scheme for this purpose...

  20. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  1. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  2. American Society of Clinical Oncology Policy Statement: The Role of the Oncologist in Cancer Prevention and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zon, Robin T.; Goss, Elizabeth; Vogel, Victor G.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Jatoi, Ismail; Robson, Mark E.; Wollins, Dana S.; Garber, Judy E.; Brown, Powel; Kramer, Barnett S.

    2009-01-01

    Oncologists have a critical opportunity to utilize risk assessment and cancer prevention strategies to interrupt the initiation or progression of cancer in cancer survivors and individuals at high risk of developing cancer. Expanding knowledge about the natural history and prognosis of cancers positions oncologists to advise patients regarding the risk of second malignancies and treatment-related cancers. In addition, as recognized experts in the full spectrum of cancer care, oncologists are afforded opportunities for involvement in community-based cancer prevention activities. Although oncologists are currently providing many cancer prevention and risk assessment services to their patients, economic barriers exist, including inadequate or lack of insurance, that may compromise uniform patient access to these services. Additionally, insufficient reimbursement for existing and developing interventions may discourage patient access to these services. The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), the medical society representing cancer specialists involved in patient care and clinical research, is committed to supporting oncologists in their wide-ranging involvement in cancer prevention. This statement on risk assessment and prevention counseling, although not intended to be a comprehensive overview of cancer prevention describes the current role of oncologists in risk assessment and prevention; provides examples of risk assessment and prevention activities that should be offered by oncologists; identifies potential opportunities for coordination between oncologists and primary care physicians in prevention education and coordination of care for cancer survivors; describes ASCO's involvement in education and training of oncologists regarding prevention; and proposes improvement in the payment environment to encourage patient access to these services. PMID:19075281

  3. Perceived Preparedness of Health Care Students for Providing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Zolezzi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Early assessment and management of risk factors is known to have significant impact in preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD and its associated burden. Cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management (CVDRAM is best approached by teamwork across health care professionals. This study aimed at assessing health care students’ (HCSs knowledge about the parameters needed for estimating CVD risk, their self-assessed preparedness/confidence and perceived barriers for the provision of CVDRAM services through a survey administered to third and fourth year pharmacy, medical, and nursing students in Qatar. Although all student cohorst achieved similar knowledge scores, less than half (n = 38, 47% were able to identify all of the six main risk factors necessary to estimate absolute CVD risk, and a third (32% were unable to identify total cholesterol as an independent risk factor necessary to estimate CVD risk. Training on the use of CVD risk assessment tools differed among the three student cohorts. All student cohorts also perceived similar levels of preparedness in CVDRAM. However, pharmacy students reported the highest preparedness/confidence with the use of the latest CVDRAM guidelines. The majority of statements listed under the barriers scale were perceived by the students as being moderate (median score = 3. Poor public acceptance or unawareness of importance of estimating CVD risk was the only barrier perceived as major by nursing students. Future integration of interprofessional educational (IPE activities in the CVDRAM curricula of HCSs may be a suitable strategy to minimize barriers and foster collaborative practice for the provision of CVDRAM services in Qatar.

  4. Perceived Preparedness of Health Care Students for Providing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolezzi, Monica; Abdallah, Oraib; Aden, Suad; Major, Stella; White, Diana; El-Awaisi, Alla

    2017-02-21

    Early assessment and management of risk factors is known to have significant impact in preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its associated burden. Cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management (CVDRAM) is best approached by teamwork across health care professionals. This study aimed at assessing health care students' (HCSs) knowledge about the parameters needed for estimating CVD risk, their self-assessed preparedness/confidence and perceived barriers for the provision of CVDRAM services through a survey administered to third and fourth year pharmacy, medical, and nursing students in Qatar. Although all student cohorts achieved similar knowledge scores, less than half ( n = 38, 47%) were able to identify all of the six main risk factors necessary to estimate absolute CVD risk, and a third (32%) were unable to identify total cholesterol as an independent risk factor necessary to estimate CVD risk. Training on the use of CVD risk assessment tools differed among the three student cohorts. All student cohorts also perceived similar levels of preparedness in CVDRAM. However, pharmacy students reported the highest preparedness/confidence with the use of the latest CVDRAM guidelines. The majority of statements listed under the barriers scale were perceived by the students as being moderate (median score = 3). Poor public acceptance or unawareness of importance of estimating CVD risk was the only barrier perceived as a major by nursing students. Future integration of interprofessional educational (IPE) activities in the CVDRAM curricula of HCSs may be a suitable strategy to minimize barriers and foster collaborative practice for the provision of CVDRAM services in Qatar.

  5. Risk Management of P2P Internet Financing Service Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yalei, Li

    2017-09-01

    Since 2005, the world’s first P2P Internet financing service platform Zopa in UK was introduced, in the development of “Internet +” trend, P2P Internet financing service platform has been developed rapidly. In 2007, China’s first P2P platform “filming loan” was established, marking the P2P Internet financing service platform to enter China and the rapid development. At the same time, China’s P2P Internet financing service platform also appeared in different forms of risk. This paper focuses on the analysis of the causes of risk of P2P Internet financing service platform and the performance of risk management process. It provides a solution to the Internet risk management plan, and explains the risk management system of the whole P2P Internet financing service platform and the future development direction.

  6. Methodology in use for the assessment of carcinogenic risk. II. Radiation. Oncology overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-04-01

    Oncology Overviews are a service of the International Cancer Research Data Bank (ICRDB) Program of the National Cancer Institute, intended to facilitate and promote the exchange of information between cancer scientists by keeping them aware of literature related to their research being published by other laboratories throughout the world. Each Oncology Overview represents a survey of the literature associated with a selected area of cancer research. It contains abstracts of articles which have been selected and organized by researchers associated with the field. Contents: Assessment of carcinogenic risk from environmental and occupational exposures to ionizing radiation; Assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation used for medical diagnosis or treatment; Assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation following nuclear bomb explosions; Comparison of risk from radiation sources with risk from nonradiation sources; Experimental studies to assess risk of carcinogenesis following exposure to ionizing radiation; Theoretical aspects of dose-response relationships in the assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation; Public policy and standards for acceptable risk from exposure to ionizing radiation; General reviews on the assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiation

  7. Advantages and risks in service standardization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veres Zoltán

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparing the advantages and risks in standardizing services, there can be no clear-cut answer concerning the strategy to be followed. Exploiting advantages in the long run is only worth it for a provider of a service that is able to build up a powerful brand image. However, the more successful a service concept, the stronger the temptation to imitation. The success of imitators will sooner or later bring about multibrand loyalty.

  8. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  9. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  10. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  11. Risk based service life prediction of underground cast iron pipes subjected to corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.Q.; Mahmoodian, M.

    2013-01-01

    Aging and deterioration of underground cast iron pipes is inevitable after their long time in service, with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism for pipe failures. Although considerable research has been undertaken in the past few decades, more is on the effects of corrosion on structural capacity of pipes than that on the prediction of their service life. This paper presents a methodology to quantitatively assess the risk of pipe collapse and predict its remaining service life using a time-dependent reliability theory. The concept of stress intensity in fracture mechanics is employed to establish the failure criterion of pipe collapse. An empirical model is derived for maximum pit growth of corrosion from the available data based on mathematical regressions. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method. It is found in the paper that the risk of pipe collapse increases with an increase in the diameter of the pipe for both external and internal corrosion. It is also found that the tougher the pipe is, the smaller the risk of its collapse. The paper concludes that a time-dependent reliability method is a very useful tool to predict the risk of pipe collapse and its remaining service life. The proposed method can help the water industry develop rehabilitation or replacement strategy for existing pipe networks with a view for better management of the pipe asset

  12. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  13. Korean Ministry of Environment's web-based visual consumer product exposure and risk assessment system (COPER).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hunjoo; Lee, Kiyoung; Park, Ji Young; Min, Sung-Gi

    2017-05-01

    With support from the Korean Ministry of the Environment (ME), our interdisciplinary research staff developed the COnsumer Product Exposure and Risk assessment system (COPER). This system includes various databases and features that enable the calculation of exposure and determination of risk caused by consumer products use. COPER is divided into three tiers: the integrated database layer (IDL), the domain specific service layer (DSSL), and the exposure and risk assessment layer (ERAL). IDL is organized by the form of the raw data (mostly non-aggregated data) and includes four sub-databases: a toxicity profile, an inventory of Korean consumer products, the weight fractions of chemical substances in the consumer products determined by chemical analysis and national representative exposure factors. DSSL provides web-based information services corresponding to each database within IDL. Finally, ERAL enables risk assessors to perform various exposure and risk assessments, including exposure scenario design via either inhalation or dermal contact by using or organizing each database in an intuitive manner. This paper outlines the overall architecture of the system and highlights some of the unique features of COPER based on visual and dynamic rendering engine for exposure assessment model on web.

  14. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  15. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  16. A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metzger, M.J.; Schröter, D.; Leemans, R.; Cramer, W.

    2008-01-01

    Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant

  17. Fall risk factors in community-dwelling elderly who receive Medicaid-supported home- and community-based care services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Takashi; Jeon, Haesang; Bailer, A John; Nelson, Ian M; Mehdizadeh, Shahla

    2011-06-01

    This study identifies fall risk factors in an understudied population of older people who receive community-based care services. Data were collected from enrollees of Ohio's Medicaid home- and community-based waiver program (preadmission screening system providing options and resources today [PASSPORT]). A total of 23,182 participants receiving PASSPORT services in 2005/2006 was classified as fallers and nonfallers, and a variety of risk factors for falling was analyzed using logistic regressions. The following factors were identified as risk factors for falling: previous fall history, older age, White race, incontinence, higher number of medications, fewer numbers of activity of daily living limitations, unsteady gait, tremor, grasping strength, and absence of supervision. Identifying risk factors for the participants of a Medicaid home- and community-based waiver program are useful for a fall risk assessment, but it would be most helpful if the community-based care service programs incorporate measurements of known fall risk factors into their regular data collection, if not already included.

  18. A service dedicated to Cultural Heritage Risk Assessment and Monitoring on the Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dore, Nicole; Monteleone, Antonio; Benenati, Luca; Bernardi, Lorenzo; Giovagnoli, Annamaria; Cacace, Carlo

    2017-04-01

    , for which also UNESCO reports indicate the earthquake as a potential risk for the Villa. Seismic waves of the most severe events recorded in central Italy were well distinguished also in Rome and surroundings, damaging some monuments and private buildings of the city. After the stronger seismic events of October 2016 and January 2017 (magnitude superior to 5.5), VIDEOR service activated for performing interferometric analyses over Villa Adriana for the assessment of monuments' stress associated to the static-structural modified conditions. The system, in fact, recorded movements (of few millimeters) of some of the Villa Adriana's monuments. These monuments, furthermore previously surveyed and recorded by ISCR in summer 2016 during the project's phase of cataloguing, are located on different geological conformation that justified differences in monuments behaviors. Soon after earthquake events, additional inspections in loco were done by ISCR, while multispectral acquisitions by drones allowed to deepening analyses performed by satellite and the general monuments status.

  19. Preventive care delivered within Public Dental Service after caries risk assessment of young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hänsel Petersson, G; Ericson, E; Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To study preventive care provided to young adults in relation to their estimated risk category over a 3-year period. METHODS: The amount and type of preventive treatment during 3 years was extracted from the digital dental records of 982 patients attending eight public dental clinics...... adults attending public dental service. Further research is needed how to reach those with the greatest need of primary and secondary prevention....

  20. Managing the unmanageable: risk assessment and risk management in contemporary professional practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raven, J; Rix, P

    1999-07-01

    This study sets out to investigate the theories and practices of risk assessment and management in the context of contemporary mental health practice. Although risk assessment and management policies are well established for those working in the field of community mental health care, there are noticeable anomalies and regional variations, in the criteria, procedures and decision-making strategies used. Focus group taped interviews were conducted with over 100 mental health professionals in one NHS Trust. These were compared with an extensive literature review on the topic. The main theme to emerge was lack of resources, which included time and staff in the context of a changing and increasing workload. Another important theme was the lack of access to centralized and accurate information about mental health service provision. It is essential that professionals, clients, their families and the public feel confident in professional judgements and practices to avoid a 'back to the asylum' lobby, for the care and treatment of seriously mentally ill individuals.

  1. Ecological risk assessment and natural resource management on the Outer Continental Shelf

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goeke, G.; Roscigno, P.F.

    1993-01-01

    Since 1988 beginning with the Drilling Impact Assessment Task Force, Minerals Management Service (MMS) has used formal risk analysis methodologies in the Gulf of Mexico to determine the potential impact of gas and oil activities son natural resources. In the process, a list of assumptions, critical for the assessment of potential impacts, was generated. These assumptions were incorporated into a scenario where several levels of certainty described the hazards in terms of expected frequency of effects and the seriousness of the consequences. A risk matrix was generated from these assumptions and was used to generate a risk assessment for the various impact-producing factors on ecological endpoints. Recommendations for risk management were also provided so that decision-makers were given insight into acceptable/unacceptable levels of risk. This process insured that those issues with the highest potential impact were given the highest priority in terms of resources. One of the most important aspect so f the development of a risk assessment was determining the frequency of effects of the impact-producing factors. A paucity of data concerning the effects of impact-producing factors on estuarine and marine ecosystems remains the primary limiting factor in the development of ecological risk assessments. Presented here is a broad outline of the risk assessment methodology using chemosynthetic communities found in the Gulf of Mexico as an example

  2. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  3. Assessment of food safety practices of food service food handlers (risk assessment data): testing a communication intervention (evaluation of tools).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Benjamin; Eversley, Tiffany; Fillion, Katie; Maclaurin, Tanya; Powell, Douglas

    2010-06-01

    Globally, foodborne illness affects an estimated 30% of individuals annually. Meals prepared outside of the home are a risk factor for acquiring foodborne illness and have been implicated in up to 70% of traced outbreaks. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has called on food safety communicators to design new methods and messages aimed at increasing food safety risk-reduction practices from farm to fork. Food safety infosheets, a novel communication tool designed to appeal to food handlers and compel behavior change, were evaluated. Food safety infosheets were provided weekly to food handlers in working food service operations for 7 weeks. It was hypothesized that through the posting of food safety infosheets in highly visible locations, such as kitchen work areas and hand washing stations, that safe food handling behaviors of food service staff could be positively influenced. Using video observation, food handlers (n = 47) in eight food service operations were observed for a total of 348 h (pre- and postintervention combined). After the food safety infosheets were introduced, food handlers demonstrated a significant increase (6.7%, P < 0.05, 95% confidence interval) in mean hand washing attempts, and a significant reduction in indirect cross-contamination events (19.6%, P < 0.05, 95% confidence interval). Results of the research demonstrate that posting food safety infosheets is an effective intervention tool that positively influences the food safety behaviors of food handlers.

  4. Health risk assessment standards of cyanobacteria bloom occurrence in bathing sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka Stankiewicz

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Threat for human health appears during a massive cyanobacteria bloom in potable water used for human consumption or in basins used for recreational purposes. General health risk assessment standards and preventive measures to be taken by sanitation service were presented in scope of: – evaluation of cyanobacteria bloom occurrence in bathing sites / water bodies, – procedures in case of cyanobacteria bloom, including health risk assessment and decision making process to protect users’ health at bathing sites, – preventive measures, to be taken in case of cyanobacteria bloom occurrence in bathing sites and basins, where bathing sites are located.

  5. Reliability assessment of serviceability performance of braced retaining walls using a neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, A. T. C.; Kulhawy, F. H.

    2005-05-01

    In urban environments, one major concern with deep excavations in soft clay is the potentially large ground deformations in and around the excavation. Excessive movements can damage adjacent buildings and utilities. There are many uncertainties associated with the calculation of the ultimate or serviceability performance of a braced excavation system. These include the variabilities of the loadings, geotechnical soil properties, and engineering and geometrical properties of the wall. A risk-based approach to serviceability performance failure is necessary to incorporate systematically the uncertainties associated with the various design parameters. This paper demonstrates the use of an integrated neural network-reliability method to assess the risk of serviceability failure through the calculation of the reliability index. By first performing a series of parametric studies using the finite element method and then approximating the non-linear limit state surface (the boundary separating the safe and failure domains) through a neural network model, the reliability index can be determined with the aid of a spreadsheet. Two illustrative examples are presented to show how the serviceability performance for braced excavation problems can be assessed using the reliability index.

  6. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  8. Risk management of emergency service vehicle crashes in the United States fire service: process, outputs, and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bui, David P; Pollack Porter, Keshia; Griffin, Stephanie; French, Dustin D; Jung, Alesia M; Crothers, Stephen; Burgess, Jefferey L

    2017-11-17

    Emergency service vehicle crashes (ESVCs) are a leading cause of death in the United States fire service. Risk management (RM) is a proactive process for identifying occupational risks and reducing hazards and unwanted events through an iterative process of scoping hazards, risk assessment, and implementing controls. We describe the process, outputs, and lessons learned from the application of a proactive RM process to reduce ESVCs in US fire departments. Three fire departments representative of urban, suburban, and rural geographies, participated in a facilitated RM process delivered through focus groups and stakeholder discussion. Crash reports from department databases were reviewed to characterize the context, circumstances, hazards and risks of ESVCs. Identified risks were ranked using a risk matrix that considered risk likelihood and severity. Department-specific control measures were selected based on group consensus. Interviews, and focus groups were used to assess acceptability and utility of the RM process and perceived facilitators and barriers of implementation. Three to six RM meetings were conducted at each fire department. There were 7.4 crashes per 100 personnel in the urban department and 10.5 per 100 personnel in the suburban department; the rural department experienced zero crashes. All departments identified emergency response, backing, on scene struck by, driver distraction, vehicle/road visibility, and driver training as high or medium concerns. Additional high priority risks varied by department; the urban department prioritized turning and rear ending crashes; the suburban firefighters prioritized inclement weather/road environment and low visibility related crashes; and the rural volunteer fire department prioritized exiting station, vehicle failure, and inclement weather/road environment related incidents. Selected controls included new policies and standard operating procedures to reduce emergency response, cameras to enhance driver

  9. Berlengas Biosphere Reserve - Plan for the assessment of ecosystem services and functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Miguel Leandro

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The project Berlengas Biosphere Reserve - Plan for the Assessment of Ecosystem Services and Functions arises from the need to identify and assess ecosystem services, promoting sustainable uses of the services in the Reserve. The high degradation rate currently observed in the natural systems, thus reducing the level and quality of ecosystem services, is reflected in a negative effect on environmental quality, human well-being and in some economic activities. Thus, it becomes inevitable to promote the need to convey the importance of these services to society. It is also essential to contribute to the development of innovative and environmentally sustainable practices which will maintain the functioning of the local ecosystem and the sustainability of the services. Thus, the main goals of this project are i to identify and analyse the impacts and dependencies on ecosystem services in the Reserve; ii to analyse the trends of the priority services, iii to identify the risks and opportunities associated with these services; iv to evaluate their value and ultimately iv to disseminate the results improving conservation and management. Based on the results to be obtained through the evaluation and maintenance of these services it is expected an improvement on the environment in the region and the development of efficient mechanisms for the management of resources. Started in February 2014, over the past 3 months much research has already been conducted, with emphasis for the identification of services and opportunities in the Reserve. Ecosystem services in Berlengas can range from simply providing essential goods or support (e.g. fish to cultural services (e.g. field trips, diving. Work is also being done to develop, define and optimize the methods to assess ecosystems services trends and values.

  10. Internal Audit Service | Internal Audit Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    their internal auditing function in the areas of professional excellence, quality of service and Students and teachers Media Internal Audit Service Navbar Toggle Home About the Staff Risk Assessment and Planning Internal Audit Process Search for Search Home The mission of the Fermilab Internal Audit Service

  11. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  12. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  13. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  14. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  15. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  16. Conceptual geoinformation model of natural hazards risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulygin, Valerii

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are the major threat to safe interactions between nature and society. The assessment of the natural hazards impacts and their consequences is important in spatial planning and resource management. Today there is a challenge to advance our understanding of how socio-economical and climate changes will affect the frequency and magnitude of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks. However, the impacts from different types of natural hazards on various marine and coastal economic activities are not of the same type. In this study, the conceptual geomodel of risk assessment is presented to highlight the differentiation by the type of economic activities in extreme events risk assessment. The marine and coastal ecosystems are considered as the objects of management, on the one hand, and as the place of natural hazards' origin, on the other hand. One of the key elements in describing of such systems is the spatial characterization of their components. Assessment of ecosystem state is based on ecosystem indicators (indexes). They are used to identify the changes in time. The scenario approach is utilized to account for the spatio-temporal dynamics and uncertainty factors. Two types of scenarios are considered: scenarios of using ecosystem services by economic activities and scenarios of extreme events and related hazards. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No. 16-35-60043 mol_a_dk.

  17. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  19. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  20. Posters as assessment strategies: focusing on service users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawley, Loretta; Frazer, Kate

    This article debates whether posters as an assessment strategy in health professionals' education programmes can benefit learners, academics, and service users. Evidence suggests that service-user involvement benefits learning by developing students' communication, partnership and advocacy skills. The authors debate the value of posters as an assessment strategy in postgraduate diploma nursing programmes delivered in an Irish School of Nursing, Midwifery and Health Systems. It is argued that assessment strategies should not only examine programme theory and practice but should also benefit the people that will be using the service. Although the assessment strategy used in these programmes aimed to benefit service users, additional work is required for assessment to be truly inclusive of service users.

  1. Priority setting for risk assessment-The benefit of human experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonzo, Cristina; Laborde, Amalia

    2005-01-01

    The chemical risk assessment process plays an essential role in the potential human health risk evaluation. Setting priorities for this purpose is critical for better use of the available human and material resources. It has been generally accepted that all new chemicals require safety evaluation before manufacture and sale. This is a difficult task due to the large number of chemicals directly consumed by man, as well as those that are widely used. At present, more than 50% of chemicals do not have the minimum data requirements for risk assessment. Production and release volumes are well-established prioritization criteria, although volume itself does not directly reflect the likelihood of human exposure. This quantitative approach applied in setting priorities may be influenced by human experience. Human data provided by epidemiological investigations have been accepted as the most credible evidence for human toxicity although analytical studies are expensive and require long-term follow up. Unfortunately, some epidemiological studies continue to have difficulties with exposure documentation, controlling bias and confounding, and are not able to provide predictions of risk until humans are exposed. Clinical toxicology services and Poison Centres around the world accumulate a great amount of toxicological-related information that may contribute to the evidence-based medicine and research and so collaborate with all the risk assessment disciplines. The information obtained from these services and centers has the potential to prioritize existing chemical assessment processes or to influence scheduling of classes of chemicals. Prioritization process may be improved by evaluating Poisons Centres statistics about frequency of cases, severity of effects, detection of unusual circumstances of exposure, as well as vulnerable sub-populations. International efforts for the harmonization of these data offer a useful tool to take advantage of this global information. Case

  2. A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Richard J.; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N.; Watson, Geoff V. R.; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N.; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W.

    2018-06-01

    Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  3. A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Darch, Geoff; Paulson, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712793

  4. Earthquake risk assessment of building structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2001-01-01

    During the past two decades, probabilistic risk analysis tools have been applied to assess the performance of new and existing building structural systems. Structural design and evaluation of buildings and other facilities with regard to their ability to withstand the effects of earthquakes requires special considerations that are not normally a part of such evaluations for other occupancy, service and environmental loads. This paper reviews some of these special considerations, specifically as they pertain to probability-based codified design and reliability-based condition assessment of existing buildings. Difficulties experienced in implementing probability-based limit states design criteria for earthquake are summarized. Comparisons of predicted and observed building damage highlight the limitations of using current deterministic approaches for post-earthquake building condition assessment. The importance of inherent randomness and modeling uncertainty in forecasting building performance is examined through a building fragility assessment of a steel frame with welded connections that was damaged during the Northridge Earthquake of 1994. The prospects for future improvements in earthquake-resistant design procedures based on a more rational probability-based treatment of uncertainty are examined

  5. Relationship between risk and transparency in the financial statements of professional services entities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela Elena Nichita

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of financial reports is to provide useful information to users; the utility of information is defined through the qualitative characteristics (fundamental and enhancing. The financial crisis emphasized the limits of financial reporting, which has been unable to prevent investors about the risks they were facing. Due to the current changes in business environment, managers been highly motivated to rethink and improve the risk governance philosophy, processes and methodologies. The lack of quality, timely data and adequate systems to capture, report and measure the right information across the organization are fundamental challenges to implementing and sustaining all aspects of effective risk management. Starting from ‘80s, the investors have become more interested in narratives (from the Notes to financial statements, than in primary reports (which disclose financial position and performance. In this research, we aim to identify whether the accounting services entities disclose risk information in their financial statements. The research will use a regression model for the assessment of the relationship between the size, profitability, leverage ratios and risk reporting by the accounting and taxation services providers in Romania during the period 2009-2013

  6. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  7. Ecological risk assessment of ecosystem services in the Taihu Lake Basin of China from 1985 to 2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xibao; Yang, Guishan; Tan, Yan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Li, Hengpeng; Wan, Rongrong; Su, Weizhong; Zhang, Jian

    2016-06-01

    There are tremendous theoretical, methodological and policy challenges in evaluating the impact of land-use change on the degradation of ecosystem services (ES) at the regional scale. This study addresses these challenges by developing an interdisciplinary methodology based on the Procedure for Ecological Tiered Assessment of Risk (PETAR). This novel methodology integrates ecological models with a land-use change model. This study quantifies the multi-dimensional degradation risks of ES in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) of China from 1985 to 2020. Four key ES related to water purification, water quantity adjustment, carbon sequestration and grain production are selected. The study employs models of Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC), Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP), Biome-BGC and Agro-ecological Zoning (AEZ) for assimilations. Land-use changes by 2020 were projected using a geographically weighted multinomial logit-cellular automata (GWML-CA) model. The results show that rapid land-use change has posed a great degradation risk of ES in the region in 1985-2020. Slightly less than two-thirds of the basin experienced degradation of ES over the 1985-2010 period, and about 12% of the basin will continue to experience degradation until 2020. Hot spots with severe deterioration in 2010-2020 are projected to be centered around some small and less developed cities in the region. Regulating accelerated urban sprawl and population growth, reinforcing current environmental programs, and establishing monitoring systems for observing dynamics of regional ES are suggested as practical counter-measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Hazard risk and vulnerability assessment : Regional District of Nanaimo : final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-06-01

    A Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (HRVA) is a mandated regulatory requirement in British Columbia that requires local authorities to prepare emergency plans that reflect the local authority's assessment of the relative risk of occurrence and the potential impact on people and property of the hazards, emergencies or disasters that could affect the jurisdictional area for which the local authority has responsibility. This report constituted an HRVA for the Regional District of Nanaimo, British Columbia. It presented the study scope and methodology and provided an overview of the Regional District of Nanaimo. This included information on the setting, demographics, and economy. Next, it discussed social vulnerability; critical response and recovery facilities; and critical infrastructure such as water, energy, telecommunications and transportation. A summary of the Regional District of Nanaimo's response capabilities that were considered when assessing the Regional District's overall risk to the hazards was also presented. Response capabilities were discussed with reference to fire and rescue; police; ambulance; and search and rescue. Emergency support and preparedness organizations were also identified. These included the Emergency Coordination Centre, environmental services, emergency social services, amateur radio and health authorities. Last, 33 hazards that could affect the Regional District of Nanaimo were identified and discussed. The study identified the following hazards as high risk: flooding; forest fires and wildland urban interface fires; and human diseases and pandemic. It was recommended that the advancement of business continuity planning in the Regional District of Nanaimo would help to reduce the impact of a possible human disease and pandemic risk outbreak affecting the population. 75 refs., 25 figs., 14 tabs., 2 appendices

  9. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  10. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  11. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  12. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  13. A risk assessment approach to support the launching of new products, services or processes

    OpenAIRE

    Steen, Riana

    2015-01-01

    This is the accepted, refereed and final manuscript to the article published This research paper aims to develop a practical method to highlight certain key risk factors involved in the product development process. A new definition of the term “launch risk” is introduced in this work. The term is defined as the uncertainty about and severity of the consequences of failed launch. The launch could be the further development of existing products or the introduction of new products/services or...

  14. Nurses' perception about risk classification in an emergency service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiane Chaves de Souza

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Get to know how nurses perceive the accomplishment of risk classification in an emergency service. Methodology. In this qualitative study, 11 nurses were included with at least two months of experience in the risk classification of patients who visited the emergency service. Semistructured interviews were used to collect the information. The data were collected between August and December 2011. For data analysis, Bardin's theoretical framework was used. Results. The nurses in the study consider the risk classification as a work organization instruments that permits closer contact between nurses and patients. The nursing skills needed for risk classification were identified: knowledge about the scale used, clinical perspective, patience and agility. The availability of risk classification scales was the main facilitator of this work. The main difficulties were the disorganization of the care network and the health team's lack of knowledge of the protocol. Conclusion. Risk classification offers an opportunity for professional autonomy to the extent that it is the main responsible for regulating care at the entry door of the emergency services.

  15. Risk assessment of soil compaction in Europe – Rubber tracks or wheels on machinery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lamandé, Mathieu; Greve, Mogens Humlekrog; Schjønning, Per

    2018-01-01

    Subsoil compaction is persistent and affects the wide diversity of ecological services provided by agricultural soils. Efficient risk assessment tools are required to identify sustainable agricultural practices. Vehicles should not transmit stresses that exceed soil strength. Wheel load is the pr......Subsoil compaction is persistent and affects the wide diversity of ecological services provided by agricultural soils. Efficient risk assessment tools are required to identify sustainable agricultural practices. Vehicles should not transmit stresses that exceed soil strength. Wheel load...... the magnitude of contact stresses, (ii) compare effects of traffic on soil physical properties using tires or tracks, and (iii) evaluate a state-of-the-art method for risk assessment of soil compaction beneath tracks or tires at the European level. We measured contact stress below a fully-loaded sugar beet....... The contact area was larger and the maximum and vertical stress smaller beneath the rubber track than beneath the tire. Nevertheless, stress distribution beneath the rubber track was far from uniform, presenting high peak stresses beneath the wheels and rollers. Dry bulk density was similar after traffic...

  16. Risk and markets for ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendor, Todd K; Riggsbee, J Adam; Doyle, Martin

    2011-12-15

    Market-based environmental regulations (e.g., cap and trade, "payments for ecosystem services") are increasingly common. However, few detailed studies of operating ecosystem markets have lent understanding to how such policies affect incentive structures for improving environmental quality. The largest U.S. market stems from the Clean Water Act provisions requiring ecosystem restoration to offset aquatic ecosystems damaged during development. We describe and test how variations in the rules governing this ecosystem market shift risk between regulators and entrepreneurs to promote ecological restoration. We analyze extensive national scale data to assess how two critical aspects of market structure - (a) the geographic scale of markets and (b) policies dictating the release of credits - affect the willingness of entrepreneurs to enter specific markets and produce credits. We find no discernible relationship between policies attempting to ease market entry and either the number of individual producers or total credits produced. Rather, market entry is primarily related to regional geography (the prevalence of aquatic ecosystems) and regional economic growth. Any improvements to policies governing ecosystem markets require explicit evaluation of the interplay between policy and risk elements affecting both regulators and entrepreneurial credit providers. Our findings extend to emerging, regulated ecosystem markets, including proposed carbon offset mechanisms, biodiversity banking, and water quality trading programs.

  17. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  18. Early identification and preventive care for elevated cardiovascular disease risk within a remote Australian Aboriginal primary health care service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O'Dea Kerin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the single greatest contributor to the gap in life expectancy between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Our objective is to determine if holistic CVD risk assessment, introduced as part of the new Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Adult Health Check (AHC, results in better identification of elevated CVD risk, improved delivery of preventive care for CVD and improvements in the CVD risk profile for Aboriginal adults in a remote community. Methods Interrupted time series study over six years in a remote primary health care (PHC service involving Aboriginal adults identified with elevated CVD risk (N = 64. Several process and outcome measures were audited at 6 monthly intervals for three years prior to the AHC (the intervention and three years following: (i the proportion of guideline scheduled CVD preventive care services delivered, (ii mean CVD medications prescribed and dispensed, (iii mean PHC consultations, (iv changes in participants' CVD risk factors and estimated absolute CVD risk and (v mean number of CVD events and iatrogenic events. Results Twenty-five percent of AHC participants were identified as having elevated CVD risk. Of these, 84% had not been previously identified during routine care. Following the intervention, there were significant improvements in the recorded delivery of preventive care services for CVD (30% to 53%, and prescription of CVD related medications (28% to 89% (P P = 0.004 following the intervention. However, there were no significant changes in the mean number of PHC consultations or mean number of CVD events or iatrogenic events. Conclusions Holistic CVD risk assessment during an AHC can lead to better and earlier identification of elevated CVD risk, improvement in the recorded delivery of preventive care services for CVD, intensification of treatment for CVD, and improvements in participants' CVD risk profile. Further research is required on

  19. 78 FR 79658 - Okanagan Specialty Fruits, Inc.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment and Environmental...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-31

    ..., DC, this 20th day of December 2013. Kevin Shea, Administrator, Animal and Plant Health Inspection... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service [Docket No. APHIS-2012-0025] Okanagan Specialty Fruits, Inc.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment and Environmental Assessment...

  20. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  1. Toward a conceptual approach for assessing risks from chemical mixtures and other stressors to coastal ecosystem services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Syberg, Kristian; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary Thomas

    2017-01-01

    in Costa Rica) are provided; one focuses on chemicals that affect human food supply and the other addresses pesticide runoff and trade-offs among ES. The 2 cases are used to highlight challenges of such risk assessments, including use of standardized versus ES-relevant test species, data completeness......, translate impacts into ES units; step F, assess cumulative risk in ES units; step G, rank stressors based on their contribution to adverse effects on ES; and step H, implement regulation and management as appropriate and necessary. Two illustrative case studies (Swedish coastal waters and a coastal lagoon......, and trade-offs among ES. Lessons learned from the 2 case studies are discussed in relation to environmental risk assessment and management of chemical mixtures....

  2. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  3. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  4. METAL STRUCTURES SURVIVABILITY ASSESSMENT WHEN SIMULATING SERVICE CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. M. Gibalenko

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The research is aimed at improving the quality and reliability of measures of primary and secondary protection of metal structures at manufacturing companies, to prolong the service life of cyclically loaded structures of production facilities taking into account the corrosion level of danger. Methodology. Authors proposed to use the principles of process approach for statement and realization of management problems of operational service life in corrosion environments. The principles of ensuring reliability on the level of corrosion danger include justification of stages sequence for survivability assessment of a structural metalwork based on the strategy of DMAIC (define, measure, analyze, improve, control: definitions, measurements, analysis, improvement and monitoring of measures of primary and secondary corrosion protection. Findings. Providing control measures from corrosion according to the criterion of corrosion danger allows providing requirements of reliability of structural metalwork based on calculated provisions of the limiting conditions method and solving the problems of management in technological safety during the expected service life of structural objects. Originality. The developed strategy of maintenance of the industrial facilities on an actual state includes the process approach to resource management by creation of system for the account and the functional controlling, risk analysis and regulation of technological safety in production facilities of the enterprises. Realization of the principles of process approach to management of technological safety at the object level is directed to perfecting of tools and methods of anticorrosive protection, extension of a resource taking into account indexes of survivability (, and justification of program measures to ensure the reliability of enterprises(PER. Practical value. On the basis of process approach to quality and reliability management, generalizations of the

  5. Venous Thromboembolism – Risk Assessment Tool and Thromboprophylaxis Policy: A National Survey

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Khan, MI

    2017-01-01

    Venous Thromboembolic (VTE) events in hospitalised patients are associated with significant mortality and morbidity and a major economic burden on the health service. It is well established in the literature that active implementation of a mandatory risk assessment tool and thromboprophylaxis policy reduces the incidence of hospital associated thrombosis (HAT). This study examines the utilization of a VTE risk assessment tool and thromboprophylaxis (TP) policy in Irish hospitals that manage acute admissions. A national survey was distributed to forty acute hospitals throughout Ireland. The response rate was 78% (31\\/40). The results showed that only 26% (n=8\\/31) of acute hospitals in Ireland have a local implemented TP policy. Six (75%) of these eight had a risk assessment tool in conjunction with the TP policy. All respondents who did not report to have a TP policy and risk assessment tool agreed that they should implement VTE prevention policy at their hospital. Based on the data from this survey and evidence from the effectiveness of the VTE prevention programme introduced in the United Kingdom, there is a need for a national risk assessment and thromboprophylaxis policy in Ireland. This change in practice would have the potential to prevent or reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with hospital acquired thrombosis

  6. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  7. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  8. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  9. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  10. Innovative Models of Dental Care Delivery and Coverage: Patient-Centric Dental Benefits Based on Digital Oral Health Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, John; Mills, Shannon; Foley, Mary E

    2018-04-01

    Innovative models of dental care delivery and coverage are emerging across oral health care systems causing changes to treatment and benefit plans. A novel addition to these models is digital risk assessment, which offers a promising new approach that incorporates the use of a cloud-based technology platform to assess an individual patient's risk for oral disease. Risk assessment changes treatment by including risk as a modifier of treatment and as a determinant of preventive services. Benefit plans are being developed to use risk assessment to predetermine preventive benefits for patients identified at elevated risk for oral disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  13. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  14. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  15. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  16. Analysis of risk-reduction measures for multiunit essential service water systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohut, P.; Musicki, Z.; Fitzpatrick, R.

    1989-01-01

    Many risk analyses have indicated the potentially significant contribution to core damage frequency (CDF) due to the loss of the essential service water (ESW) function. The ESW system serves as the ultimate heat sink, and its failure can affect numerous safety components and systems, although it does not directly perform a frontline safety function. As such, probabilistic risk assessment studies usually analyze its failures through support system modeling; however, the direct loss of the ESW as an initiator may or may not be explicitly treated. In addition, the actual analysis is made more complex due to the linked initiating event nature of these events, since the system fault trees are coupled to the initiator in these cases. Previously, a specific safety issue was identified concerning the increase in core-melt vulnerability caused by the failure of the ESW system in pressurized water reactor (PWR) multiplant units that have only two service water (SW) pumps per unit with a backup crosstie capability to the other unit. The main objective of the present study was to establish a realistic measure of the core damage vulnerability, to identify potential improvements for the ESW systems, and to obtain generic estimates of their risk-reduction potential and cost-effectiveness

  17. Health assessment of self-employed in the food service industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grégoris, Marina; Deschamps, Frédéric; Salles, Julie; Sanchez, Stéphane

    2017-07-01

    Objectives This study's objective was to assess the morbidity of self-employed workers in the food service industry, an industry with a large amount of occupational health risks. Methods A cross-sectional study, consisting of 437 participants, was conducted between 2011 and 2013 in Champagne-Ardenne, France. The health questionnaire included an interview, a clinical examination, and medical investigations. Results The study population consisted of 146 self-employed workers (not working for an employer) and 291 employees (working with employment contracts for an employer). Logistic regression analysis revealed that self-employed workers had a higher morbidity than employees, after adjusting for age (OR: 3.45; 95% CI: 1.28 to 9.25). Main adverse health conditions were joint pain (71.2% self-employed vs. 38.1% employees, p < 0.001), ear disorders (54.1% self-employed vs. 33.7%, employees, p < 0.001), and cardiovascular diseases (47.3% self-employed vs. 21% employees, p < 0.001). Conclusions The study highlights the need for occupational health services for self-employed workers in France so that they may benefit from prevention of occupational risks and health surveillance. Results were presented to the self-employed healthcare insurance fund in order to establish an occupational health risks prevention system.

  18. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  19. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  20. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  1. Approaches to Risk and Consumer Policy in Financial Service Regulation in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Lunt

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The financial service and communication sectors in the UK have been subject to radical re-organisation, involving the formation of sector-wide regulatory bodies (FSA and Ofcom with wide-ranging powers and statutory obligations. Although both have responsibilities for assessment and management of risk, their remits go beyond traditional approaches to regulation. Hence, although primarily oriented to economic policy, both regulators address questions of corporate responsibility, balance of stakeholder interests, the public good, consumer representation and public participation. Accordingly, they are undertaking a range of activities, including consumer education and research, public consultation and the involvement of stakeholders in policy review. Focusing on the case of financial services, this paper presents an analysis of two early speeches by FSA directors, one focused on the approach to risk adopted by the regulator and the other on consumer policy. The second part of the paper considers the conceptual issues regarding different modes of risk management in the new regulators, requiring an account of the various levels and forms of involvement by stakeholders and publics in the identification and management of risk. It follows on from the analysis of the speeches to examine the relationship between risk and consumer policy in the practices of the FSA. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0601323

  2. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  3. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  4. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  5. A service development study of the assessment and management of fracture risk in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shribman, Samuel; Torsney, Kelli M; Noyce, Alastair J; Giovannoni, Gavin; Fearnley, Julian; Dobson, Ruth

    2014-06-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) is associated with an increased risk of fragility fracture. FRAX and Qfracture are risk calculators that estimate the 10-year risk of hip and major fractures and guide definitive investigation for osteoporosis using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) imaging. It is unclear which PD patients should be considered for fracture risk assessment and whether FRAX or Qfracture should be used. Seventy-seven patients with PD were recruited in the movement disorders clinic. Data were collected on PD-related characteristics and fracture risk scores were calculated. Patients with previous osteoporotic fractures had a higher incidence of falls (p = 0.0026) and use of bilateral walking aids (p = 0.0187) in addition to longer disease duration (p = 0.0037). Selecting patients with falls in combination with either disease duration >5 years, bilateral walking aids, or previous osteoporotic fracture distinguished patients with and without previous osteoporotic fracture with specificity 67.7 % (95 % CI 55.0-78.8) and sensitivity 100.0 % (95 % CI 73.5-100.0). Qfracture calculated significantly higher fracture risk scores than FRAX for hip (p < 0.0001) and major (p = 0.0008) fracture in PD patients. Receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated that FRAX outperformed Qfracture with an area under the curve of 0.84 (95 % CI 0.70-0.97, p = 0.0004) for FRAX and 0.68 (95 % CI 52-86, p = 0.0476) for Qfracture major fracture risk calculators. We suggest that falls in combination with either a disease duration longer than 5 years or bilateral walking aids or previous osteoporotic fracture should be used as red flags in PD patients to prompt clinicians to perform a FRAX fracture risk assessment in the neurology clinic.

  6. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  7. Flood risk assessment. Case of study: Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Novelo-Casanova

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to its geographical location, the community of Motozintla de Mendoza (Motozintla in the State of Chiapas, Mexico, is continuously exposed to the impact of natural hazards. In this work, we assessed the flood risk of Motozintla considering the structural, socioeconomic, organizational, and global (structural, socioeconomic, and organizational vulnerabilities. In addition, we also measured the local risk perception. Spatial maps were generated to determine the most vulnerable and risk areas of this community. Our results indicate that the population has a high level of risk to flooding mainly because (1 the majority of the local houses has high structural vulnerability; (2 a high percentage of the families has a daily income less than the official Mexican minimum wage and lacks of basic public services as well as of proper social security services; (3 most of the community does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan; and (4 the community organization for disaster mitigation and response is practically non-existent. For these reasons, we believe that it is necessary for local authorities to establish in the short-term, preparedness, mitigation and response plans as well as land-use measures to reduce the risk to floods in Motozintla.

  8. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  9. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  10. Service water system aging assessment - Phase I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarrell, D.B.; Zimmerman, P.W.; Gore, M.L.

    1988-01-01

    The Service Water System (SWS) represents the final heat transfer loop between decay heat generated in the nuclear core and the safe dispersal of that heat energy in the environment. It is the objective of this investigation to demonstrate that aging phenomena can be identified and quantified such that aging degradation of system components can be detected and mitigated prior to the reduction of system availability to below an acceptable threshold. The approach used during the Phase I task was to (1) perform a literature search of government and private sector reports which relate to service water, aging related degradation, and potential methodologies for analysis; (2) assemble a data base which contains all the commercial power plants in the US, their Service Water System configuration, characteristics, and water source; (3) obtain and examine the available service water data from large generic data bases, i.e. NPRDS, LER, NPE, inspection reports, and other relevant plant reference data; (4) perform a fault tree analysis of a typical plant service water systems to examine failure propagation and understand specific input requirements of probabilistic risk analyses; (5) develop an in-depth questionnaire protocol for examining the information resource at a power plant which is not available through data base query and visit a central station power plant and solicit the required information; (6) analyze the information obtained from the in-depth plant interrogation and draw contrasts and conclusions with the data base information; (7) utilize the plant information to perform an interim assessment of service water system degradation mechanisms and focus future investigations. This paper addresses the elements of this task plan numbered 1, 3, 6, and 7. The remaining items are detailed in the phase-I report

  11. Experimental climate information services in support of risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. S.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Davidson, M. A.; Shea, E. E.; Nierenberg, C.; Dole, R. M.

    2009-12-01

    Climate variability and change impact national and local economies and environments. Developing and communicating climate and climate impacts information to inform decision making requires an understanding of context, societal objectives, and identification of factors important to the management of risk. Information sensitive to changing baselines or extremes is a critical emergent need. Meeting this need requires timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information and knowledge within familiar pathways. We identify key attributes for a climate service , and the network and infrastructure to develop and coordinate the resulting services based on lessons learned in experimental implementations of climate services. "Service-type" activities already exist in many settings within federal, state, academic, and private sectors. The challenge for a climate service is to find effective implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting user needs). These strategies include upfront infrastructure investments, learning from event to event, coordinated innovation and diffusion, and highlighting common adaptation interests. Common to these strategies is the production of reliable and accessible data, analyses of emergent conditions and needs, and deliberative processes to identify appropriate entry points and uses for improved knowledge. Experimental climate services show that the development of well-structured paths among observations, projections, risk assessments and usable information requires sustained participation in “knowledge management systems” for early warning across temporal and spatial scales. Central to these systems is a collaborative framework between research and management to ensure anticipatory coordination between decision makers and information providers, allowing for emerging research findings and their attendant uncertainties to be considered. Early warnings in this context are not simply forecasts or

  12. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  13. Track 6: safety and risk management. Plant operational risk management. Plant Configuration Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Periodic Maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Huichang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Sung, Key Yong

    2001-01-01

    As the operation experiences of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Korea accumulate and NPP safety functions become enhanced, the role of stable and optimal NPP operation within acceptable safety criteria becomes important at present. To accomplish the goal of safe and optimal operation, maintenance and its related activities should be regarded as the issues of most concern. Studies of methodologies for maintenance improvement and optimization have focused on system performance rather than on the hardware itself. From this point of view, the probabilistic methods are most useful. In terms of risk including core damage frequency and unavailability, the cause that might impact plant safety during normal maintenance activities can be identified and evaluated effectively. The results from these probabilistic analyses can provide insightful information for the reallocation of risk-contributing maintenance activity. This information can be utilized in a way that separates the significant risk-contributing maintenance activities from each other unless they are timely related. In Korea, the risk-monitoring program for operating NPPs is under development and will be implemented in 2003. To accomplish the risk-monitoring program objectives, suitable risk evaluation methods should be developed before the implementation of the risk-monitoring program. The plant configuration assessment methodology was developed for these reasons, and this method is to incorporate the field experiences into the risk calculation exactly within the limit of probabilistic methods. During normal plant operation, the plant operational risk changes frequently depending on the status of the plant system and the arrangement of the components. Specific plant systems or components are typically removed from service because of random equipment failure, planned preventive/predictive maintenance, corrective maintenance, surveillance testing, and operational bypass activities, and such events usually impact the

  14. Innovation risks in the market of tourist services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Kiseleva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article defines methods of managing innovation risk in the tourist business. A travel company that implements an innovative strategy of its activities faces special risks that accompany innovation: low demand for innovative services due to lack of information about them, and lack of feedback from consumers of these services; underestimation of the cost of the innovation service; the appearance of so-called problematic innovations, etc. The aim of the work is to study the features of the functioning of the tourism market, as well as to identify problems and prospects for the development of tourism using innovations. The following tasks were accomplished: an analysis of the functioning of the market at the present stage; recommendations are proposed for improving the development of the tourism market with the use of innovations. Methods of cognition, retrospective and documentary analysis, as well as synthesis, generalization, systematization were methods. In the article the assortment of innovative services is considered; proposed the organizational and economic mechanism of risk management in tourism and the main directions for improving management in tourism. Currently, the tourism industry in the regions is represented by a large number of small travel agencies. The fragmentation of the tourism industry creates information problems. In order to coordinate the activities of these firms, it is advisable to create a single center that performs information, coordination and dispatch functions. In addition, measures should be envisaged to eliminate the resulting damage on the basis of recovery technologies. At the same time, for effective management of business risks, effective management is most important, and for consumer risks different types of insurance.

  15. Fraud Risk Modelling: Requirements Elicitation in the Case of Telecom Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yesuf, Ahmed; Wolos, Lars Peter; Rannenberg, Kai

    2017-01-01

    Telecom providers are losing tremendous amounts of money due to fraud risks posed to Telecom services and products. Currently, they are mainly focusing on fraud detection approaches to reduce the impact of fraud risks against their services. However, fraud prevention approaches should also...... be investigated in order to further reduce fraud risks and improve the revenue of Telecom providers. Fraud risk modelling is a fraud prevention approach aims at identifying the potential fraud risks, estimating the damage and setting up preventive mechanisms before the fraud risks lead to actual losses....... In this paper, we highlight the important requirements for a usable and context-aware fraud risk modelling approach for Telecom services. To do so, we have conducted two workshops with experts from a Telecom provider and experts from multi-disciplinary areas. In order to show and document the requirements, we...

  16. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  17. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  18. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  19. Cross-Cultural Perspectives of Service Quality and Risk in Air Transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Lawrence F.; Young, Clifford E.; Lee, Moonkyu

    2002-01-01

    This study compares US and Korean customers in terms of their perceptions of airline service quality based on SERVPERF and industry-based measures, as well as their perceptions of risks involved in the airline choice. SERVPERF is a set of multi-dimensional measures of customer evaluations of service quality. The results indicate that: (1) US passengers are generally more satisfied with their airline service than Korean customers on most of the SERVPERF dimensions; (2) Koreans are generally more satisfied with the bumping procedures whereas US participants feel more satisfied with the airline's baggage handling, operations/safety, and connections; and (3) US participants perceive higher levels of performance and financial risks whereas Koreans feel greater social risk in choosing an airline. This study also examines the SERVPERF, industry-based measure, and perceived risk in predicting customer satisfaction with, and intention to repatronize the airline. The results suggest that US customers consider service reliability, in-flight comfort, and connections as the key factors determining satisfaction with airline service whereas Korean passengers generally regard reliability, assurance, and risk factors as predictors of satisfaction. The determining factors of customer intention to repatronize the airline are reliability and empathy for US, and reliability and overall risk for Korean customers. The study demonstrates the applicability of SERVPERF as a cross-cultural tool and indicates the importance of perceived risk in cross-cultural studies.

  20. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

  1. Going beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: an index system of human dependence on ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wu; Dietz, Thomas; Liu, Wei; Luo, Junyan; Liu, Jianguo

    2013-01-01

    The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) estimated that two thirds of ecosystem services on the earth have degraded or are in decline due to the unprecedented scale of human activities during recent decades. These changes will have tremendous consequences for human well-being, and offer both risks and opportunities for a wide range of stakeholders. Yet these risks and opportunities have not been well managed due in part to the lack of quantitative understanding of human dependence on ecosystem services. Here, we propose an index of dependence on ecosystem services (IDES) system to quantify human dependence on ecosystem services. We demonstrate the construction of the IDES system using household survey data. We show that the overall index and sub-indices can reflect the general pattern of households' dependences on ecosystem services, and their variations across time, space, and different forms of capital (i.e., natural, human, financial, manufactured, and social capitals). We support the proposition that the poor are more dependent on ecosystem services and further generalize this proposition by arguing that those disadvantaged groups who possess low levels of any form of capital except for natural capital are more dependent on ecosystem services than those with greater control of capital. The higher value of the overall IDES or sub-index represents the higher dependence on the corresponding ecosystem services, and thus the higher vulnerability to the degradation or decline of corresponding ecosystem services. The IDES system improves our understanding of human dependence on ecosystem services. It also provides insights into strategies for alleviating poverty, for targeting priority groups of conservation programs, and for managing risks and opportunities due to changes of ecosystem services at multiple scales.

  2. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  3. Cancer Genetics Services Directory

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Services Directory Cancer Prevention Overview Research NCI Cancer Genetics Services Directory This directory lists professionals who provide services related to cancer genetics (cancer risk assessment, genetic counseling, genetic susceptibility testing, ...

  4. Emerging contaminants: Presentations at the 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murnyak, George; Vandenberg, John; Yaroschak, Paul J.; Williams, Larry; Prabhakaran, Krishnan; Hinz, John

    2011-01-01

    A session entitled 'Emerging Contaminants' was held in April 2009 in Cincinnati, OH at the 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference. The purpose of the session was to share information on both programmatic and technical aspects associated with emerging contaminants. Emerging contaminants are chemicals or materials that are characterized by a perceived or real threat to human health or environment, a lack of published health standards or an evolving standard. A contaminant may also be 'emerging' because of the discovery of a new source, a new pathway to humans, or a new detection method or technology. The session included five speakers representing the Department of Defense (DoD), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and each of the military services. The DoD created the Emerging Contaminant Directorate to proactively address environmental, health, and safety concerns associated with emerging contaminants. This session described the scan-watch-action list process, impact assessment methodology, and integrated risk management concept that DoD has implemented to manage emerging contaminants. EPA presented emerging trends in health risk assessment. Researchers made technical presentations on the status of some emerging contaminates in the assessment process (i.e. manganese, RDX, and naphthalene).

  5. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  6. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  7. Targeted In-service Inspections Using Risk Insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulat, S.; Montgomery, B.; Robin Graybeal, M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper includes a discussion of the historical background and rationale for development of a targeted In-service Inspection (ISI) program using risk insights, known as Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI). RI-ISI programs are optimized inspection programs which target specific welds for inspection based upon potential degradation mechanisms and consequences of failure. Inspections are performed on those welds that are the highest contributors to plant risk. Additionally the inspections are tailored to detect the specific postulated degradation mechanisms. As a result, the numbers of inspections are reduced along with the associated cost and radiation exposure, while maintaining or improving the level of quality and safety. Provided in this paper are the basic principles of RI-ISI program development, and a summary of the impact of the implementation of such programs. For example, implementation of a Risk-Informed In-service Inspection program results in a reduction of both cost and radiation exposure. Cost savings are estimated at between USD 1,000,000 and USD 2,300,000 per unit per ten year interval for a Class 1 and2 RI-ISI application. Cost savings are estimated based on average cost per weld of USD 7600 for examination, including the following activities: erection and removal of scaffolding, removal and replacement of insulation, removal and replacement of interferences, weld preparation, examination, documentation, craft support. Reduction in radiation exposure is estimated at 75% to 90% for a Class 1 and2 RI-ISI application. Reduction in radiation exposure is due to the following factors: number of welds selected for examination decreases by 60% to 75%, surface examinations essentially eliminated, within a given risk category, welds can be selected for examination based on additional factors such as the minimization of radiation exposure.(author).

  8. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  9. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  10. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  11. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  12. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  13. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  14. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  15. A Wide Area Risk Assessment Framework for Underwater Military Munitions Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, K. T.; Calantoni, J.

    2017-12-01

    Our objective was to develop a prototype statistical framework supporting Wide Area Assessment and Remedial Investigation decisions relating to the risk of unexploded ordnance and other military munitions concentrated in underwater environments. Decision making involving underwater munitions is inherently complex due to the high degree of uncertainty in the environmental conditions that force munitions responses (burial, decay, migration, etc.) and associated risks to the public. The prototype framework provides a consistent approach to accurately delineating contaminated areas at underwater munitions sites through the estimation of most probable concentrations. We adapted existing deterministic models and environmental data services for use within statistical modules that allowed the estimation of munition concentration given historic site information and environmental attributes. Ultimately this risk surface can be used to evaluate costs associated with various remediation approaches (e.g. removal, monitoring, etc.). Unfortunately, evaluation of the assessment framework was limited due to the lack of enduser data services from munition site managers. Of the 450 U.S. sites identified as having potential contamination with underwater munitions, assessment of available munitions information (including historic firing or disposal records, and recent ground-truth munitions samples) indicated very limited information in the databases. Example data types include the most probable munition types, approximate firing / disposal dates and locations, and any supportive munition survey or sampling results. However the overall technical goal to integrate trained statistical belief networks with detailed geophysical knowledge of sites, of sensors and of the underwater environment was demonstrated and should allow probabilistic estimates of the most likely outcomes and tradeoffs while managing uncertainty associated with military munitions response.

  16. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  17. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  18. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  19. 76 FR 27301 - Syngenta Biotechnology, Inc.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-11

    ...] Syngenta Biotechnology, Inc.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental... Plant Health Inspection Service has received a petition from Syngenta Biotechnology, Inc., seeking a.../brs/aphisdocs/07_10801p _dpra.pdf. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. Rick Coker, Biotechnology...

  20. Landslide risk impact management and web services for improving resilience: the LIFE+IMAGINE project approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congi, Maria Pia; Campo, Valentina; Cipolloni, Carlo; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Guerrieri, Luca; Iadanza, Carla; Spizzichino, Daniele; Trigila, Alessandro

    2014-05-01

    The increasing damage caused by natural disasters in the last decades points out the need for interoperable added-value services to support environmental safety and human protection, by reducing vulnerability of exposed elements as well as improving the resilience of the involved communities. For this reason, to provide access to harmonized and customized data is only one of several steps towards delivering adequate support to risk assessment, reduction and management. Scope of the present work is to illustrate a methodology under development for analysis of potential impacts in areas prone to landslide hazard in the framework of the EC project LIFE+IMAGINE. The project aims to implement an infrastructure based on web services for environmental analysis, that integrates in its own architecture specifications and results from INSPIRE, SEIS and GMES. Existing web services will be customized during the project to provide functionalities for supporting the environmental integrated management. The implemented infrastructure will be applied to landslide risk scenarios, to be developed in selected pilot areas, aiming at: i) application of standard procedures to implement a landslide risk analysis; ii) definition of a procedure for assessment of potential environmental impacts, based on a set of indicators to estimate the different exposed elements with their specific vulnerability in the pilot area. More in detail, the landslide pilot will be aimed at providing a landslide risk scenario through the implementation and analysis of: 1) a landslide inventory from available historical databases and maps; 2) landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; 3) assessment of exposure and vulnerability on selected typologies of elements at risk; 4) implementation of a landslide risk scenario for different sets of exposed elements (e.g. population, road network, residential area, cultural heritage). The pilot will be implemented in Liguria, Italy, in two different catchment areas located

  1. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  2. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  3. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  4. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  5. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  6. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  8. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  9. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  10. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  11. REGRESSION MODEL FOR RISK REPORTING IN FINANCIAL STATEMENTS OF ACCOUNTING SERVICES ENTITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela NICHITA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of financial reports is to provide useful information to users; the utility of information is defined through the qualitative characteristics (fundamental and enhancing. The financial crisis emphasized the limits of financial reporting which has been unable to prevent investors about the risks they were facing. Due to the current changes in business environment, managers have been highly motivated to rethink and improve the risk governance philosophy, processes and methodologies. The lack of quality, timely data and adequate systems to capture, report and measure the right information across the organization is a fundamental challenge for implementing and sustaining all aspects of effective risk management. Starting with the 80s, the investors are more interested in narratives (Notes to financial statements, than in primary reports (financial position and performance. The research will apply a regression model for assessment of risk reporting by the professional (accounting and taxation services for major companies from Romania during the period 2009 – 2013.

  12. Integration of Grid and Sensor Web for Flood Monitoring and Risk Assessment from Heterogeneous Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

    2013-04-01

    Over last decades we have witnessed the upward global trend in natural disaster occurrence. Hydrological and meteorological disasters such as floods are the main contributors to this pattern. In recent years flood management has shifted from protection against floods to managing the risks of floods (the European Flood risk directive). In order to enable operational flood monitoring and assessment of flood risk, it is required to provide an infrastructure with standardized interfaces and services. Grid and Sensor Web can meet these requirements. In this paper we present a general approach to flood monitoring and risk assessment based on heterogeneous geospatial data acquired from multiple sources. To enable operational flood risk assessment integration of Grid and Sensor Web approaches is proposed [1]. Grid represents a distributed environment that integrates heterogeneous computing and storage resources administrated by multiple organizations. SensorWeb is an emerging paradigm for integrating heterogeneous satellite and in situ sensors and data systems into a common informational infrastructure that produces products on demand. The basic Sensor Web functionality includes sensor discovery, triggering events by observed or predicted conditions, remote data access and processing capabilities to generate and deliver data products. Sensor Web is governed by the set of standards, called Sensor Web Enablement (SWE), developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Different practical issues regarding integration of Sensor Web with Grids are discussed in the study. We show how the Sensor Web can benefit from using Grids and vice versa. For example, Sensor Web services such as SOS, SPS and SAS can benefit from the integration with the Grid platform like Globus Toolkit. The proposed approach is implemented within the Sensor Web framework for flood monitoring and risk assessment, and a case-study of exploiting this framework, namely the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project, is

  13. Medical cost savings for participants and nonparticipants in health risk assessments, lifestyle management, disease management, depression management, and nurseline in a large financial services corporation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serxner, Seth; Alberti, Angela; Weinberger, Sarah

    2012-01-01

    To compare changes in medical costs between participants and nonparticipants in five different health and productivity management (HPM) programs. Quasi-experimental pre/post intervention study. A large financial services corporation. A cohort population of employees enrolled in medical plans (n  =  49,723) [corrected]. A comprehensive HPM program, which addressed health risks, acute and chronic conditions, and psychosocial disorders from 2005 to 2007. Incentives were used to encourage health risk assessment participation in years 2 and 3. Program participation and medical claims data were collected for members at the end of each program year to assess the change in total costs from the baseline period. Analysis . Multivariate analyses for participation categories were conducted comparing baseline versus program year cost differences, controlling for demographics. All participation categories yielded a lower cost increase compared to nonparticipation and a positive return on investment (ROI) for years 2 and 3, resulting in a 2.45∶1 ROI for the combined program years. Medical cost savings exceeded program costs in a wide variety of health and productivity management programs by the second year.

  14. Interrelationships of risks faced by third party logistics service providers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Govindan, Kannan; Chaudhuri, Atanu

    2016-01-01

    insights. Results show that arms-length relationship between the customer and the 3PLs has strong influence on other risks and there is a need for collaborative relationships between 3PLs and its customers. Moreover, analysis indicates that the 3PLs need to improve internal processes related to quality......This paper analyses the interrelationships between risks faced by third party logistics service providers (3PLs) in relation to one of its customers using DEMATEL. Novel analysis of both within and between risk categories and generation of threshold value to prioritize risks generate useful...... management, flexibility of its operations and also geographical coverage of their services....

  15. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  17. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  18. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  19. The role of ecological models in linking ecological risk assessment to ecosystem services in agroecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galic, N.G.; Schmolke, A.; Forbes, V.; Baveco, J.M.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2012-01-01

    Agricultural practices are essential for sustaining the human population, but at the same time they can directly disrupt ecosystem functioning. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) aims to estimate possible adverse effects of human activities on ecosystems and their parts. Current ERA practices,

  20. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  1. Service Availability and Readiness Assessment of Maternal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJRH Managing Editor

    Keywords: Madagascar, Maternal and Child health services, Service availability and readiness assessment, Public health facilities. Résumé ..... Table 2: Percentage of Health Facilities Equipped with Tracer Items for Antenatal Care Services Among Facilities. Providing this ... 32 CSBs, due to its location in a tourist area.

  2. Antepartum Services and Symptoms of Postpartum Depression in At-Risk Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruyak, Sharon L; Flores-Montoya, Angelina; Boursaw, Blake

    To examine which psychosocial risk factors are predictors of symptoms of postpartum depression (PPD) and whether home visit services are associated with decreased reports of symptoms of PPD. Secondary analysis of observational data from the 2012 to 2013 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS). A national sample with data from more than 30,000 births from 41 states. To account for unequal probabilities of selection, PRAMS-produced survey weights were incorporated in all percentage estimates, all chi-square tests, and an overall logistic regression model for maternal characteristics as predictors of symptoms of PPD. The effect of interventions on PPD was assessed using statistical techniques that adjusted for the likelihood of receiving the intervention. Stressors (odds ratio [OR] = 2.6 for three to five stressors; OR = 3.1 for six or more stressors), physical abuse (OR = 1.8), and history of depression (OR = 3.0) were associated with PPD in the logistic regression model. Using propensity score analysis, the average treatment effect of home visiting on PPD, during or after pregnancy, was nonsignificant. However, the propensity score analysis did identify a group of high-risk women for whom receiving a home visit was associated with nearly 40% lower odds (OR = 0.6) of experiencing PPD symptoms. Findings highlight the effect home visits during pregnancy may have on the odds of at-risk women developing symptoms of PPD. Future research is indicated to assess the extent to which targeted interventions during these home visits can enhance effectiveness by mitigating psychosocial stress in pregnancy to prevent PPD. Copyright © 2017 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  4. Issues related to structural aging in probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    1998-01-01

    Structural components and systems have an important safety function in nuclear power plants. Although they are essentially passive under normal operating conditions, they play a key role in mitigating the impact of extreme environmental events such as earthquakes, winds, fire and floods on plant safety. Moreover, the importance of structural components and systems in accident mitigation is amplified by common-cause effects. Reinforced concrete structural components and systems in NPPs are subject to a phenomenon known as aging, leading to time-dependent changes in strength and stiffness that may impact their ability to withstand various challenges during their service lives from operation, the environment and accidents. Time-dependent changes in structural properties as well as challenges to the system are random in nature. Accordingly, condition assessment of existing structures should be performed within a probabilistic framework. The mathematical formalism of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) provides a means for identifying aging structural components that may play a significant role in mitigating plant risk. Structural condition assessments supporting a decision regarding continued service can be rendered more efficient if guided by the logic of a PRA

  5. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  6. Correlation between the reason for referral, clinical, and objective assessment of the risk for dysphagia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancopes, Renata; Gonçalves, Bruna Franciele da Trindade; Costa, Cintia Conceição; Favero, Talita Cristina; Drozdz, Daniela Rejane Constantino; Bilheri, Diego Fernando Dorneles; Schumacher, Stéfani Fernanda

    2014-01-01

    To correlate the reason for referral to speech therapy service at a university hospital with the results of clinical and objective assessment of risk for dysphagia. This is a cross-sectional, observational, retrospective analytical and quantitative study. The data were gathered from the database, and the information used was the reason for referral to speech therapy service, results of clinical assessment of the risk for dysphagia, and also from swallowing videofluoroscopy. There was a mean difference between the variables of the reason for the referral, results of the clinical and objective swallowing assessments, and scale of penetration/aspiration, although the values were not statistically significant. Statistically significant correlation was observed between clinical and objective assessments and the penetration scale, with the largest occurring between the results of objective assessment and penetration scale. There was a correlation between clinical and objective assessments of swallowing and mean difference between the variables of the reason for the referral with their respective assessment. This shows the importance of the association between the data of patient's history and results of clinical evaluation and complementary tests, such as videofluoroscopy, for correct identification of the swallowing disorders, being important to combine the use of severity scales of penetration/aspiration for diagnosis.

  7. Earth observation technologies in service to the cultural landscape of Cyprus: risk identification and assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuca, Branka; Tzouvaras, Marios; Agapiou, Athos; Lysandrou, Vasiliki; Themistocleous, Kyriacos; Nisantzi, Argyro; Hadjimitsis, Diofantos G.

    2016-08-01

    The Cultural landscapes are witnesses of "the creative genius, social development and the imaginative and spiritual vitality of humanity. They are part of our collective identity", as it is internationally defined and accepted (ICOMOSUNESCO). The need for their protection, management and inclusion in the territorial policies has already been widely accepted and pursued. There is a great number of risks to which the cultural landscapes are exposed, arising mainly from natural (both due to slow geo-physical phenomena as well as hazards) and anthropogenic causes (e.g. urbanisation pressure, agriculture, landscape fragmentation etc.). This paper explores to what extent Earth Observation (EO) technologies can contribute to identify and evaluate the risks to which Cultural Landscapes of Cyprus are exposed, taking into consideration specific phenomena, such as land movements and soil erosion. The research of the paper is illustrated as part of the activities carried out in the CLIMA project - "Cultural Landscape risk Identification, Management and Assessment". It aims to combine the fields of remote sensing technologies, including Sentinel data, and monitoring of cultural landscape for its improved protection and management. Part of this approach will be based on the use of InSAR techniques in order to monitor the temporal evolution of deformations through the detection and measurement of the effects of surface movements caused by various factors. The case study selected for Cyprus is the Nea Paphos archeological site and historical center of Paphos, which are listed as UNESCO World Heritage sites. The interdisciplinary approach adopted in this research was useful to identify major risks affecting the landscape of Cyprus and to classify the most suitable EO methods to assess and map such risks.

  8. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  9. Risk-informed decision making a keystone in advanced safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinhart, M.

    2007-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) has provided extremely valuable complementary insight, perspective, comprehension, and balance to deterministic nuclear reactor safety assessment. This integrated approach of risk-informed management and decision making has been called Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM). RIDM provides enhanced safety, reliability, operational flexibility, reduced radiological exposure, and improved fiscal economy. Applications of RIDM continuously increase. Current applications are in the areas of design, construction, licensing, operations, and security. Operational phase safety applications include the following: technical specifications improvement, risk-monitors and configuration control, maintenance planning, outage planning and management, in-service inspection, inservice testing, graded quality assurance, reactor oversight and inspection, inspection finding significance determination, operational events assessment, and rulemaking. Interestingly there is a significant spectrum of approaches, methods, programs, controls, data bases, and standards. The quest of many is to assimilate the full compliment of PSA and RIDM information and to achieve a balanced international harmony. The goal is to focus the best of the best, so to speak, for the benefit of all. Accordingly, this presentation will address the principles, benefits, and applications of RIDM. It will also address some of the challenges and areas to improve. Finally it will highlight efforts by the IAEA and others to capture the international thinking, experience, successes, challenges, and lessons in RIDM. (authors)

  10. Service Quality and Process Maturity Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serek Radomir

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with service quality and the methods for its measurement and improvements to reach the so called service excellence. Besides older methods such as SERVQUAL and SERPERF, there are also shortly described capability maturity models based on which the own methodology is developed and used for process maturity assessment in organizations providing technical services. This method is equally described and accompanied by examples on pictures. The verification of method functionality is explored on finding a correlation between service employee satisfaction and average process maturity in a service organization. The results seem to be quite promising and open an arena for further studies.

  11. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  12. Scientific Opinion addressing the state of the science on risk assessment of plant protection products for non-target arthropods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    EFSA PPR Panel (EFSA Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues); Topping, Christopher John

    2015-01-01

    scheme is reviewed, taking into consideration recent workshops and progress in science. Proposals are made for specific protection goals which aim to protect important ecosystem services such as food web support, pest control and biodiversity. In order to address recovery and source–sink population...... dynamics, conducting a landscape-level risk assessment is suggested. A new risk assessment scheme is suggested which integrates modelling approaches. The main exposure routes for non-target arthropods are identified and proposals are made on how to integrate them in the risk assessment. The appropriateness...

  13. Development of a risk-based in-service inspection program for an LMR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, R.W.; Buschman, H.W.

    1996-01-01

    The emerging application of risk-based assessment technology to the operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants holds considerable promise for improving efficiency and reducing operating costs. Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) is a liquid-metal-cooled fast reactor (LMR) that operated for 30 yr before shutting down in September 1994 due to program termination. Prior to the shutdown of EBR-II, an in-service inspection (ISI) program was developed that exploited certain advantages of the LMR design. For example, it demonstrated passive response to plant upset events, low-pressure primary coolant, and compatibility of the coolant and reactor materials. This ISI program was based on work currently being done by an American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inspection

  14. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  15. Scaling up from an individual to a population-level assessment for risks of pesticides to threatened and endangered birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in collaboration with the National Marine Fisheries Service and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is currently developing a methodology to assess the risks of pesticides to federally-listed threatened and endangered species. In thi...

  16. "Check This out": Assessing Customer Service at the Circulation Desk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Dallas

    2012-01-01

    The access services staff at Milner Library, Illinois State University, designed a customer service assessment to evaluate how effectively the department was carrying out its mission statement. Areas of assessment included the department's waiting times, helpfulness, and courtesy. The assessment activity focused on circulation services, which is…

  17. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  18. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  19. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  20. Coordinating ecological risk assessment with natural resource damage assessment: A panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Brenda; Ammann, Mike; Hoff, Rebecca; Huston, Mark; Jenkins, Kenneth; Palagyi, Tony; Pelto, Karen; Rettig, Todd; Wagner, Anne

    2016-10-01

    Contaminated sites in the United States undergo remediation and restoration through regulatory programs that lead the 2 processes through independent but often parallel pathways with different objectives. The objective of remediation is to reduce risk to human health and the environment, whereas that of restoration is to restore injured resources and compensate the public for lost use of the services that natural resources provide. More complex sites, such as those associated with large river systems and urban waterways, have resulted in increasingly larger-scale ecological risk assessments (ERAs) and natural resource damage assessments (NRDAs) that take many years and involve diverse practitioners including scientists, economists, and engineers. Substantial levels of effort are now frequently required, creating a need for more efficient and cost-effective approaches to data collection, analyses, and assessments. Because there are commonalities in the data needs between ERAs and NRDAs, coordination of the design and implementation of site-specific studies that meet the needs of both programs could result in increased efficiency and lower costs. The Association for Environmental Health and Sciences Foundation convened a panel of environmental practitioners from industry, consulting, and regulatory bodies to examine the benefits and challenges associated with coordinating ERA and NRDA activities in the context of a broad range of regulatory programs. This brief communication presents the opinions and conclusions of the panelists on these issues and reports 2 case studies for which coordinated ERA and NRDA activities produced a positive outcome. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:616-621. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

  1. Performance Assessment for e-Government Services: An Experience Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Yan; Zhu, Liming; Gorton, Ian

    2007-08-14

    The transformation and integration of government services, enabled by the use of new technologies such as application servers and Web services, is fundamental to reduce the cost of government and improving service outcomes to citizens. Many core Government information systems comprise applications running on legacy mainframes, databases and transaction processing monitors. As Governments worldwide provide direct access over the Internet to these legacy applications from the general public, they may be exposed to workloads well above the origin design parameters of these back-end systems. This creates a significant risk of high profile failures for Government agencies whose newly integrated systems become overloaded. In this paper we describe how we conducted a performance assessment of a business-critical, Internet-facing Web services that integrated new and legacy systems from two Australian Government agencies. We leveraged prototype tools from our own research along with known techniques in performance modeling. We were able to clearly demonstrate that the existing hardware and software would be adequate to handle the predicted workload for the next financial year. We were also able to do ‘what-if’ analysis and predict how the system can perform with alternative strategies to scale the system. We conclude by summarizing the lessons learnt, including the importance of architecture visibility, benchmarking data quality, and measurement feasibility due to issues of outsourcing, privacy legislation and cross-agency involvement.

  2. Internal dosimetry hazard and risk assessments: methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, G.A.

    2006-01-01

    Routine internal dose exposures are typically (in the UK nuclear industry) less than external dose exposures: however, the costs of internal dosimetry monitoring programmes can be significantly greater than those for external dosimetry. For this reason decisions on when to apply routine monitoring programmes, and the nature of these programmes, can be more critical than for external dosimetry programmes. This paper describes various methods for performing hazard and risk assessments which are being developed by RWE NUKEM Limited Approved Dosimetry Services to provide an indication when routine internal dosimetry monitoring should be considered. (author)

  3. Assessing Health Outcomes After Environmental Exposures Associated With Open Pit Burning in Deployed US Service Members.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohrbeck, Patricia; Hu, Zheng; Mallon, Col Timothy M

    2016-08-01

    This study assessed the long-term health impact of environmental exposures associated with open pit burning in deployed US service members. Two hundred individuals deployed to Balad, Iraq, and Bagram, Afghanistan, with known exposure to open pits, were matched to 200 non-deployed service members. Both cohorts were observed for adverse health outcomes after returning from deployment. Slight increased risks were observed for respiratory diseases in the Bagram cohort (adj RR: 1.259), and for cardiovascular disease in the Balad cohort (adj RR: 1.072), but the findings were not significant. The combined deployed cohort showed lower risks for adverse health outcomes, suggesting a healthy deployer effect. In conclusion, this study did not find significantly increased risks for selected health outcomes after burn pit exposure during deployment among two deployed cohorts compared with a non-deployed cohort.

  4. Navigating the risks of prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV services in Kibera, Kenya: Barriers to engaging and remaining in care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Kerry A; Telfer, Barbara; Opondo Awiti, Patricia; Munge, Jane; Ngunga, Mathew; Reid, Anthony

    2018-01-01

    Within the first year of implementation, 43% of women who tested HIV positive at their first antenatal care visit were no longer retained and being followed in the free prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV program offered by the Kenyan Ministry of Health and Médecins Sans Frontières in the informal settlement of Kibera, Nairobi. This study aimed to explore barriers to enrolling and remaining engaged in PMTCT services throughout the pregnancy and postpartum periods. Qualitative data from 31 focus group discussions and 35 in-depth interviews across six stakeholder groups that included women, men, and PMTCT service providers were analyzed. Using an inductive exploratory approach, four researchers coded the data and identified key themes. Five themes emerged from the data that may influence attrition from PMTCT service in this setting: 1) HIV in the context of Kibera, 2) knowledge of HIV status, 3) knowledge of PMTCT, 4) disclosure of HIV status, and 5) male partner support for PMTCT services. A new HIV diagnosis during pregnancy immediately triggered an ongoing risk assessment of perceived hazards in the home, community, and clinic environments that could occur as a result of female participation in PMTCT services. Male partners were a major influence in this risk assessment, but were generally unaware of PMTCT services. To preserve relationships with male partners, meet community expectations of womanhood, and maintain confidentiality while following recommendations of healthcare providers, women had to continuously weigh the risks and benefits of PMTCT services and interventions. Community-based HIV testing and PMTCT education, male involvement in antenatal care, and counseling customized to assist each woman in her own unique risk assessment, may improve uptake of and retention in care and optimize the HIV prevention benefit of PMTCT interventions.

  5. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  6. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  7. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  8. Assessment of customer satisfaction in transportation service ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of customer satisfaction in transportation service delivery: The case of three terminals of Anbassa City Bus service enterprise. ... Fullscreen Fullscreen Off. AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL... for Researchers · for ...

  9. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  10. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  11. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  12. IMPLEMENTING A VALUE ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR SERVICE INNOVATION IDEAS

    OpenAIRE

    TOR HELGE AAS

    2010-01-01

    There has not been much discussion of how firms may assess the value of service innovation projects ex-ante in the extant research literature. This paper theoretically derives a value assessment tool for service innovation ideas called QSI (tool for pre-Qualification of Service Innovation projects). Thereafter QSI is implemented in three firms and it is explored to what degree the implementation improved managerial decision making on service innovation projects and investments. The findings i...

  13. Analyzing the systematic risk of logistics service providers : The influence of market, industry and company effects

    OpenAIRE

    Lampe, Kerstin; Hofmann, Erik

    2013-01-01

    With this paper we want to find out which factors influence beta coefficient of logistics service providers. The systematic risk (beta coefficient, ?) of LSPs becomes more and more important for strategic decision making of LSPs, as it helps calculating the cost of capital. The cost of capital is an important factor when assessing LSPs' (future) investments, strategies and performance.

  14. Ecological Risk Assessment of the Southern Fujian Golden Triangle in China Based on Regional Transportation Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyi Yang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Regional transportation development (RTD is an important stressor of urban agglomeration ecosystems. Groundwater recharge potential may be adversely affected when natural soil is replaced by impervious materials. To systematically identify the urban agglomeration ecological risk (UAER of RTD in the southern Fujian Golden Triangle, water regulation was used as an assessment endpoint, and RTD was considered the stressor. We used the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (SCS-CN to analyze the internal relationship between the assessment endpoint and the stressor factors. Then, a multi-level risk characterization method was used to show the evolutionary process of risk, and to provide a scientific basis for the management of UAER. Based on the current RTD plan, the UAER assessment shows that there is a 0.90 probability of that the risk distribution results will occur by 2030. The intensity of stress from arterial roads on the urban agglomeration ecosystem is greater than that of the railway system. By considering the development of the railway system as a factor in the stress of RTD, this study of UAER assessment differs from past studies of urban ecological risk assessment, since the latter considers only highways. We also propose a systematic method of risk assessment simulation-prediction.

  15. Acceptability and Receipt of Preventive Care for Chronic-Disease Health Risk Behaviors Reported by Clients of Community Mental Health Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlem, Kate; Bowman, Jenny; Freund, Megan; Wye, Paula; Lecathelinais, Christophe; McElwaine, Kathleen; Wolfenden, Luke; Gillham, Karen; Wiggers, John

    2015-08-01

    Compared with the general population, people with a mental illness have a greater prevalence of behaviors that contribute to higher chronic disease rates. Mental health clinical guidelines recommend preventive care to address such behaviors; however, little information is available about whether clients consider preventive care acceptable or about the prevalence of such care in mental health services. This article describes acceptability and receipt of assessment, advice, and referral for smoking, inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption, harmful alcohol consumption, and physical inactivity, as reported by community mental health service clients. The association between preventive care, diagnosis, and number of clinical appointments was examined. A cross-sectional telephone interview was conducted with clients (N=558) of community mental health services in Australia. Although preventive care was highly acceptable to clients (86%-97%), receipt of preventive care was low. Client receipt of risk assessment ranged from 26% (assessment of fruit or vegetable intake) to 76% (assessment of alcohol consumption). The proportion of clients at risk of and assessed for unhealthy behavior who then received brief advice ranged from 69% (fruit or vegetable intake) to 85% (physical activity), whereas only 38% (alcohol consumption) to 49% (smoking) received any referral. A greater number of mental health appointments were associated with higher prevalence of preventive care, as were diagnoses of diabetes or respiratory conditions and not having a schizophrenia diagnosis. Practice change strategies are required to increase the delivery of routine preventive care within mental health services if clients are to benefit from clinical guidelines.

  16. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

  17. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  18. E-Services quality assessment framework for collaborative networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stegaru, Georgiana; Danila, Cristian; Sacala, Ioan Stefan; Moisescu, Mihnea; Mihai Stanescu, Aurelian

    2015-08-01

    In a globalised networked economy, collaborative networks (CNs) are formed to take advantage of new business opportunities. Collaboration involves shared resources and capabilities, such as e-Services that can be dynamically composed to automate CN participants' business processes. Quality is essential for the success of business process automation. Current approaches mostly focus on quality of service (QoS)-based service selection and ranking algorithms, overlooking the process of service composition which requires interoperable, adaptable and secure e-Services to ensure seamless collaboration, data confidentiality and integrity. Lack of assessment of these quality attributes can result in e-Service composition failure. The quality of e-Service composition relies on the quality of each e-Service and on the quality of the composition process. Therefore, there is the need for a framework that addresses quality from both views: product and process. We propose a quality of e-Service composition (QoESC) framework for quality assessment of e-Service composition for CNs which comprises of a quality model for e-Service evaluation and guidelines for quality of e-Service composition process. We implemented a prototype considering a simplified telemedicine use case which involves a CN in e-Healthcare domain. To validate the proposed quality-driven framework, we analysed service composition reliability with and without using the proposed framework.

  19. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  20. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  1. Assessment of patient's satisfaction with healthcare services ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of patient's satisfaction with healthcare services obtained from a ... to identify deficiencies and improve on the quality of health services rendered. ... by the doctor or nurse (r = 0.315, p<0.001) and a significant negative correlation ...

  2. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  3. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  4. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  5. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  6. Project risk and appeals in U.S. Forest Service planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, Marc J.; Predmore, S. Andrew; Morse, Wayde C.; Seesholtz, David N.

    2013-01-01

    The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires U.S. Forest Service planning processes to be conducted by interdisciplinary teams of resource specialists to analyze and disclose the likely environmental impacts of proposed natural resource management actions on Forest Service lands. Multiple challenges associated with these processes have been a source of frustration for the agency. One of these challenges involves administrative appeals through which public entities can challenge a Forest Service decision following a NEPA process. These appeals instigate an internal review process and can result in an affirmation of the Forest Service decision, a reversal of that decision, or additional work that re-initiates all or part of the NEPA process. We examine the best predictors of appeals and their outcomes on a representative sample of 489 Forest Service NEPA processes that were decided between 2007 and 2009. While certain factors associated with pre-existing social contexts (such as a history of controversy) or pre-determined elements of a proposed action (such as the extraction of forest products) predispose certain processes to a higher risk of appeals, other practices and process-related strategies within the control of the agency also appear to bear meaningful influence on the occurrence of appeals and their outcomes. Appeals and their outcomes were most strongly related to programmatic, structural (turnover of personnel in particular), and relationship risks (both internal and external) within the processes, suggesting the need for greater focus within the agency on cultivating positive internal and external relationships to manage the risk of appeals. -- Highlights: ► We examined appeals and their outcomes on 489 U.S. Forest Service NEPA processes. ► Project type, context, team turnover, and personal relationships predicted appeals. ► External relationship management and staff turnover best predicted appeal outcomes. ► Positive internal and

  7. Project risk and appeals in U.S. Forest Service planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stern, Marc J., E-mail: mjstern@vt.edu [Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, 304 Cheatham Hall (0324), Blacksburg, VA 24061 (United States); Predmore, S. Andrew, E-mail: spred2@uis.edu [Department of Environmental Studies, University of Illinois-Springfield, Public Affairs Center, Room 314, Springfield, IL 62703 (United States); Morse, Wayde C., E-mail: morsewc@auburn.edu [School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 3301 Forestry and Wildlife Bldg., Auburn, AL 36849 (United States); Seesholtz, David N., E-mail: dseesholtz@fs.fed.us [Focused Science Delivery Program, Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 1249S Vinnell Way, Suite 200, Boise, ID 83709 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires U.S. Forest Service planning processes to be conducted by interdisciplinary teams of resource specialists to analyze and disclose the likely environmental impacts of proposed natural resource management actions on Forest Service lands. Multiple challenges associated with these processes have been a source of frustration for the agency. One of these challenges involves administrative appeals through which public entities can challenge a Forest Service decision following a NEPA process. These appeals instigate an internal review process and can result in an affirmation of the Forest Service decision, a reversal of that decision, or additional work that re-initiates all or part of the NEPA process. We examine the best predictors of appeals and their outcomes on a representative sample of 489 Forest Service NEPA processes that were decided between 2007 and 2009. While certain factors associated with pre-existing social contexts (such as a history of controversy) or pre-determined elements of a proposed action (such as the extraction of forest products) predispose certain processes to a higher risk of appeals, other practices and process-related strategies within the control of the agency also appear to bear meaningful influence on the occurrence of appeals and their outcomes. Appeals and their outcomes were most strongly related to programmatic, structural (turnover of personnel in particular), and relationship risks (both internal and external) within the processes, suggesting the need for greater focus within the agency on cultivating positive internal and external relationships to manage the risk of appeals. -- Highlights: ► We examined appeals and their outcomes on 489 U.S. Forest Service NEPA processes. ► Project type, context, team turnover, and personal relationships predicted appeals. ► External relationship management and staff turnover best predicted appeal outcomes. ► Positive internal and

  8. Does the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool Predict Discharge Disposition After Joint Replacement?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Viktor J.; Gromov, Kirill; Lebrun, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Payers of health services and policymakers place a major focus on cost containment in health care. Studies have shown that early planning of discharge is essential in reducing length of stay and achieving financial benefit; tools that can help predict discharge disposition would...... populations is unknown. A low RAPT score is reported to indicate a high risk of needing any form of inpatient rehabilitation after TJA, including short-term nursing facilities. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: This study attempts (1) to assess predictive accuracy of the RAPT on US patients undergoing total hip and knee....... Based on our findings, the risk categories in our populations should be high risk intermediate risk 7 to 10, and low risk > 10. CONCLUSIONS: The RAPT accurately predicted discharge disposition for high- and low-risk patients in our cohort. Based on our data, intermediate-risk patients should...

  9. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  10. Development of a Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS for Predicting Osteoporotic Fracture Risk: Analysis of Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ha Young Kim

    Full Text Available Asian-specific prediction models for estimating individual risk of osteoporotic fractures are rare. We developed a Korean fracture risk prediction model using clinical risk factors and assessed validity of the final model.A total of 718,306 Korean men and women aged 50-90 years were followed for 7 years in a national system-based cohort study. In total, 50% of the subjects were assigned randomly to the development dataset and 50% were assigned to the validation dataset. Clinical risk factors for osteoporotic fracture were assessed at the biennial health check. Data on osteoporotic fractures during the follow-up period were identified by ICD-10 codes and the nationwide database of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS.During the follow-up period, 19,840 osteoporotic fractures were reported (4,889 in men and 14,951 in women in the development dataset. The assessment tool called the Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS is comprised of a set of nine variables, including age, body mass index, recent fragility fracture, current smoking, high alcohol intake, lack of regular exercise, recent use of oral glucocorticoid, rheumatoid arthritis, and other causes of secondary osteoporosis. The KFRS predicted osteoporotic fractures over the 7 years. This score was validated using an independent dataset. A close relationship with overall fracture rate was observed when we compared the mean predicted scores after applying the KFRS with the observed risks after 7 years within each 10th of predicted risk.We developed a Korean specific prediction model for osteoporotic fractures. The KFRS was able to predict risk of fracture in the primary population without bone mineral density testing and is therefore suitable for use in both clinical setting and self-assessment. The website is available at http://www.nhis.or.kr.

  11. Managing Risk in Information Resources and Services Provision in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk management forms an integral part of the Library's planning and monitoring process and its internal control framework. It is therefore a vital element of good governance and management. This paper discusses the strategies for managing risks in the provision of information services in University Libraries. The concept ...

  12. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  13. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  14. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  15. Global approach of mean service satisfaction assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Dooguy Kora

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical expression for mobile service satisfaction assessment has been proposed. Mobile networks users’ satisfaction is a major concern for the operators and regulators. Therefore a certain level of network qualification is required to be offered to consumers by operators thanks to the decisions initiated by the regulation authority. For the assessment of the level of satisfaction, several methodologies and tools (measuring and monitoring have emerged. Ranking in two broad categories, namely the objective and subjective methods, both have advantages as well as disadvantages. This Letter has proposed a unified approach to evaluate more objectively users’ level of satisfaction of a service based on the most common network key performance indicators (KPIs rate following the different methods. This approach's main advantage is that it has taken advantages of the different positive aspects of the existing methods and outperformed their limitations thanks to the introduced concept of global KPI. In addition, the size of samples according to each method has been considered. A mean service satisfaction theoretical expression has been proposed to regulation authority, consumers association and operators as common base of service satisfaction assessment.

  16. Global Cardiovascular Risk Assessment by Family Physicians in Suez Canal University-Family Medicine Centers-Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nour-Eldein, Hebatallah; Abdelsalam, Shimaa A; Nasr, Gamila M; Abdelwahed, Hassan A

    2013-01-01

    The close sustained contact of family physician with their patients and local community makes preventive care an integral part of their routine work. Most cardiovascular diseases (CVD) can be prevented by addressing their risk factors. There are several guidelines that recommend different CV risk assessment tools to support CV prevention strategies. This study aimed to assess awareness and attitude of global CV risk assessment and use of their tools by family physicians; aiming to improve CV prevention service. The current study is a cross-sectional descriptive analytic. Sixty-five family physicians were asked to respond to, validated anonymous questionnaire to collect data about characteristics of family physicians, their awareness, attitude, current use, barriers, and recommendations of global CV risk assessment. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 18 was used for data entry and analysis. Awareness of guidelines of global CV risk assessment was relatively higher regarding the American guidelines (30.8%) than that recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) for Egypt (20.2%). 50.8% of participants had favorable attitude. There was statistical significant relationship between attitude scores and physician characteristics; age (P = 0.003), qualification (P = 0.001) and number of patients seen per week (P = 0.009). Routine use of global CV risk assessment tools was reported only (23%) by family physicians. Relative higher attitude scores than use of global CV risk assessment tools in practice. The most frequent barriers were related to lack of resources and shortage in training/skills and the raised suggestions were towards training.

  17. Assessing Interprofessional Education Collaborative Competencies in Service-Learning Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevin, Alexa M; Hale, Kenneth M; Brown, Nicole V; McAuley, James W

    2016-03-25

    Objective. To investigate the effect of an interprofessional service-learning course on health professions students' self-assessment of Interprofessional Education Collaborative (IPEC) competencies. Design. The semester-long elective course consisted of two components: a service component where students provided patient care in an interprofessional student-run free clinic and bi-weekly workshops in which students reflected on their experiences and discussed roles, team dynamics, communication skills, and challenges with underserved patient populations. Assessment. All fifteen students enrolled in the course completed a validated 42-question survey in a retrospective post-then-pre design. The survey instrument assessed IPEC competencies in four domains: Values and Ethics, Roles and Responsibilities, Interprofessional Communication, and Teams and Teamwork. Students' self-assessment of IPEC competencies significantly improved in all four domains after completion of the course. Conclusion. Completing an interprofessional service-learning course had a positive effect on students' self-assessment of interprofessional competencies, suggesting service-learning is an effective pedagogical platform for interprofessional education.

  18. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  19. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  20. Psychosocial risk factors in medical personnel of a health service in Cartagena de Indias, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irma Y. Castillo Á

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to determine the variables associated with psychosocial risk factors among the doctors of a stateowned social welfare enterprise providing health services in Cartagena. Methodology: a cross-sectional study on a population of 197 doctors from the enterprise’s outpatient and emergency services. The istas21 questionnaire, a Spanish adaptation of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (copsoq, was used to assess psychosocial factors. Statistical analysis was performed using the program SPSS® version 17, and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test was applied to estimate the associations between variables. Results: 170 doctors participated in this study; 88.8% of which had favorable exposure to risk factors in the following dimensions: social support and quality of leadership and Double presence. 69.4% showed adverse exposure in the insecurity dimension. In the dimensions Insecurity and Double Presence, general practitioners were in worse conditions than specialists (Mann-Whitney U Prob<0.05. Additionally, doctors from the outpatient service showed more deterioration in the social support and quality of leadership dimensions than those from the emergency service (Mann-Whitney U Prob<0.05. As for the psychological demands dimension, doctors from higher socioeconomic strata showed higher unfavorable scores than those from lower strata (Mann-Whitney U Prob<0.05.

  1. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  2. Assessment of service quality of public antiretroviral treatment (ART clinics in South Africa: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kinkel Hans F

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In South Africa the ever increasing demand for antiretroviral treatment (ART runs the risk of leading to sub-optimal care in public sector ART clinics that are overburdened and under resourced. This study assessed the quality of ART services to identify service areas that require improvement. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out at 16 of 17 public ART clinics in the target area in greater Pretoria, South Africa. Trained participant observers presented as ART qualifying HIV positive patients that required a visit to assess treatment readiness. They evaluated each facility on five different occasions between June and November 2009, assessing the time it took to get an appointment, the services available and accessed, service quality and the duration of the visit. Services (reception area, clinician’s consultation, HIV counselling, pharmacy, nutrition counselling and social worker’s assessment were assessed against performance standards that apply to all clinics. Service quality was expressed as scores for clinic performance (CPS and service performance (SPS, defined as the percentage of performance standards met per clinic and service area. Results In most of the clinics (62.5% participant observers were able to obtain an appointment within one week, although on the day of their visit essential services could not always be accessed. The median CPS of the assessed facilities was 68.5 with four clinics not meeting minimum standards (CPS > 60. The service areas that performed least well were the clinician’s consultation (SPS 67.3 and HIV counselling (SPS 70.7. Most notably, clinicians performed a physical examination in only 41.1% of the visits and rarely did a complete TB symptom screening. Counsellors frequently failed to address prevention of HIV transmission. Conclusions Overall public sector ART clinics in greater Pretoria were easily accessible and their services were of an acceptable quality. However

  3. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  4. ANALYSING PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT IN PUBLIC SERVICES: HOW USEFUL IS THE CONCEPT OF A PERFORMANCE REGIME?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Steve; Nutley, Sandra; Downe, James; Grace, Clive

    2016-03-01

    Approaches to performance assessment have been described as 'performance regimes', but there has been little analysis of what is meant by this concept and whether it has any real value. We draw on four perspectives on regimes - 'institutions and instruments', 'risk regulation regimes', 'internal logics and effects' and 'analytics of government' - to explore how the concept of a multi-dimensional regime can be applied to performance assessment in public services. We conclude that the concept is valuable. It helps to frame comparative and longitudinal analyses of approaches to performance assessment and draws attention to the ways in which public service performance regimes operate at different levels, how they change over time and what drives their development. Areas for future research include analysis of the impacts of performance regimes and interactions between their visible features (such as inspections, performance indicators and star ratings) and the veiled rationalities which underpin them.

  5. Coenoses risk assessment in industry (resource specificity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyaglov Sergey, G.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The modernization of the economic infrastructure of modern Russia is now essential, taking a natural limiter necessary momentum, which is especially important in the current conditions of global trends and taking into account the efforts taken by the State, aimed at large-scale growth of production of Russian companies. This paper discusses the direction of overcoming the problem of lack of access to financial services to business entities, due to the lack of a universal tool to identify risks in the provision of credit resources to the understanding that, despite the differences in interpretation of Russian and foreign sources, is a complex of ontological perception of researchers, proposed expanded by generally accepted phenomenon of self-organization. It is proposed to assess the risks of the enterprises on the basis of the provisions of coenoses theory, which allows using a few key parameters to determine the degree of efficiency of use of available resources, to identify the stability of the enterprise as a system and predict its dynamic changes.

  6. Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, Hiromitsu

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

  7. Ten-year audit of clients presenting to a specialised service for young people experiencing or at increased risk for psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrad, Agatha M; Lewin, Terry J; Sly, Ketrina A; Schall, Ulrich; Halpin, Sean A; Hunter, Mick; Carr, Vaughan J

    2014-11-18

    Despite strong research interest in psychosis risk identification and the potential for early intervention, few papers have sought to document the implementation and evaluation of specialised psychosis related services. Assessment of Ultra High Risk (UHR) has been given priority, but it is equally as important to identify appropriate comparison groups and other baseline differences. This largely descriptive service evaluation paper focuses on the 'baseline characteristics' of referred clients (i.e., previously assessed characteristics or those identified within the first two months following service presentation). Data are reported from a 10-year layered service audit of all presentations to a 'Psychological Assistance Service' for young people (PAS, Newcastle, Australia). Baseline socio-demographic and clinical characteristics (N =1,997) are described (including clients' psychosis and UHR status, previous service contacts, hospitalisation rates, and diagnostic and comorbidity profiles). Key groups are identified and comparisons made between clients who received ongoing treatment and those who were primarily assessed and referred elsewhere. Clients averaged 19.2 (SD =4.5) years of age and 59% were male. One-tenth of clients (9.6%) were categorised as UHR, among whom there were relatively high rates of attenuated psychotic symptoms (69.1%), comorbid depression (62.3%), anxiety (42.9%), and attentional and related problems (67.5%). Overall, one-fifth (19.8%) experienced a recent psychotic episode, while a further 14.5% were categorised as having an existing psychosis (46.7% with a schizophrenia diagnosis), amongst whom there were relatively high rates of comorbid substance misuse (52.9%), psychosocial (70.2%) and physical health (37.7%) problems. The largest group presenting to PAS were those with non-psychotic disorders (43.7%), who provide a valuable comparison group against which to contrast the health trajectories of those with UHR and recent psychosis. Ongoing

  8. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  9. 'What on earth can this possibly mean'? French reentry courts and experts' risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog-Evans, Martine

    2016-01-01

    Against the backdrop of ten years of punitive criminal justice policies, the number of cases in which risk assessments by psychiatrist experts are mandatory has considerably increased in France. Because of complex and deeply ingrained cultural factors, most experts and academics oppose the use of actuarial or other structured judgement tools, which they assimilate to these policy changes. Parallel to this, the reentry judges in charge of making release and other community sentence decisions have maintained a strong rehabilitative and desistance-focused culture. Drawing on interviews with these judges and experts, the author wanted to assess the judges' expectations of experts' reports, their opinion on actuarial tools, and how they perceived experts and their aptitude to assess risk. The study showed that French reentry judges manage to keep experts' conclusions at bay when they do not fit with their desistance goals, as they can draw upon their own expertise and that of probation services. They do not have much faith in the professionalism and methodology of experts, and would like them to better demonstrate how they reach their conclusions. Moreover, criminogenic needs assessment would be much more useful to them than static risk assessment, which raises the issue as to why this is not the French probation services' role. Reentry judges who never encountered a report which uses a structured tool are influenced by the French ideological debate; those who have read such reports are unanimously in favour of such tools. It thus seems clear that they would like experts to be more strongly guided by science, but are not yet fully aware of what this entails. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Higher tier field research in ecological risk assessment: a case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faber, J. [Alterra, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2003-07-01

    A newly developed basic procedure for site-specific ecological risk assessment in The Netherlands was followed in practice for the first time. In line with conventional Triade approaches, the procedure includes multidisciplinary parameters from environmental chemistry, toxicology and ecology to provide multiple weight of evidence. However, land use at the contaminated site and its vicinity is given more importance, and research parameters are selected in accordance to specific objectives for land use in order to test for harmful effects to underlying ecosystem services. Moreover, the approach is characterized by repetitive interactions between stakeholders and researching consultants, in particular with respect to the choice of parameters and criteria to assess the results. The approach was followed in an ecological risk assessment to test the assumptions underlying a soil management plant for a rural area in The Netherlands, called 'Krimpenerwaard'. Throughout this region some 5000 polder ditches have been filled with waste materials originating from local households, waterway sludge, industrial wastes, car shredders, and more. Several sites are severely polluted by heavy metals, cyanide, PAH or chlorinated hydrocarbons and require remediation or clean up. However, the exact distribution of these wastes over the entire region is scarcely known, and the Krimpenerwaard as a whole is treated as one case of serious soil pollution. A soil management plan was constructed by 13 stakeholding parties, aiming for a 'functional clean up' in view of land use, by means of covering 'suspected' categories of wastes with a 30-cm layer of local type soil. The ecological risk assessment aims to verify the assumptions in the soil management plan regarding the prevention of possible undesirable effects induced by the various waste materials. A tiered approach is followed, including a screening for bioavailable contaminants, a testing for general effects

  11. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  12. Risk assessment of pre-hospital trauma airway management by anaesthesiologists using the predictive Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nakstad Anders R

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Endotracheal intubation (ETI has been considered an essential part of pre-hospital advanced life support. Pre-hospital ETI, however, is a complex intervention also for airway specialist like anaesthesiologists working as pre-hospital emergency physicians. We therefore wanted to investigate the quality of pre-hospital airway management by anaesthesiologists in severely traumatised patients and identify possible areas for improvement. Method We performed a risk assessment according to the predictive Bayesian approach, in a typical anaesthesiologist-manned Norwegian helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS. The main focus of the risk assessment was the event where a patient arrives in the emergency department without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication for it. Results In the risk assessment, we assigned a high probability (29% for the event assessed, that a patient arrives without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication. However, several uncertainty factors in the risk assessment were identified related to data quality, indications for use of ETI, patient outcome and need for special training of ETI providers. Conclusion Our risk assessment indicated a high probability for trauma patients with an indication for pre-hospital ETI not receiving it in the studied HEMS. The uncertainty factors identified in the assessment should be further investigated to better understand the problem assessed and consequences for the patients. Better quality of pre-hospital airway management data could contribute to a reduction of these uncertainties.

  13. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  14. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  15. Bt rice in China - focusing the nontarget risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yunhe; Zhang, Qingling; Liu, Qingsong; Meissle, Michael; Yang, Yan; Wang, Yanan; Hua, Hongxia; Chen, Xiuping; Peng, Yufa; Romeis, Jörg

    2017-10-01

    Bt rice can control yield losses caused by lepidopteran pests but may also harm nontarget species and reduce important ecosystem services. A comprehensive data set on herbivores, natural enemies, and their interactions in Chinese rice fields was compiled. This together with an analysis of the Cry protein content in arthropods collected from Bt rice in China indicated which nontarget species are most exposed to the insecticidal protein and should be the focus of regulatory risk assessment. © 2017 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  17. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  18. A multi-criteria, ecosystem-service value method used to assess catchment suitability for potential wetland reconstruction in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Turner, Katrine Grace; Bøcher, Peder Klith

    2017-01-01

    Wetlands provide a range of ecosystem services such as drought resistance, flood resistance, nutrient deposition, biodiversity, etc. This study presents a new multi-criteria, ecosystems service value-driven method to drive the optimal placement of restored wetlands in terms of maximizing selected...... for potential wetland reconstruction (i.e. restoration)? Five key ecosystem services indicators produced or affected by wetlands in Denmark were mapped (recreational potential, biodiversity, nitrogen mitigation potential, inverse land rent, and flash-flood risk). These services were compared to current...... ecosystem services which a wetland can provide or affect. We aim to answer two questions: 1) which of the ecosystem services indicators defines the placement of wetlands today? 2) Based on the ecosystem services indicator assessment, what are the recommendations for future selection of catchments...

  19. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  20. Multiple service use: the impact of consistency in service quality for vulnerable youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Jackie; Munford, Robyn; Liebenberg, Linda; Ungar, Michael

    2014-04-01

    Little is known about the way in which variations in service quality influence outcomes when youth are clients of more than one service system. This article reports on a study of 1,210 adolescents (aged 13-17 years), half were concurrent clients of two or more services and half were not involved in two or more services. Youth completed a self-report questionnaire administered by a trained interviewer. It was hypothesized that youth reporting two positive service experiences would report lower risks, higher resilience, and better outcomes than youth reporting inconsistent or two negative service experiences and that their resilience, risks, and outcomes would be similar to those of youth not involved in two or more services. MANCOVA was used to determine the relationship among service quality and resilience, risk, and outcomes with four covariates that assessed family and neighborhood environments, history of abuse and neglect, and chronic need. Results indicate that service quality had an effect on resilience, risks, and outcomes. These relationships were mediated quite strongly by the influence of the risks youth faced in their neighborhoods and to a lesser extent by the other three covariates. Of the three dependent variables, risk appeared to be the most consistently influenced by all the covariates, and it also differentiated service experience groups. Results point to the importance of services developing strategies to effectively address risks confronted by youth and also to ensure that when more than one service is involved with youth, consistency in service delivery is achieved. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  3. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  4. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  5. Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

  6. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  7. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

  8. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  9. Operational Remote Sensing Services in North Eastern Region of India for Natural Resources Management, Early Warning for Disaster Risk Reduction and Dissemination of Information and Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, P. L. N.; Sarma, K. K.; Barman, D.; Handique, B. K.; Chutia, D.; Kundu, S. S.; Das, R. Kr.; Chakraborty, K.; Das, R.; Goswami, J.; Das, P.; Devi, H. S.; Nongkynrih, J. M.; Bhusan, K.; Singh, M. S.; Singh, P. S.; Saikhom, V.; Goswami, C.; Pebam, R.; Borgohain, A.; Gogoi, R. B.; Singh, N. R.; Bharali, A.; Sarma, D.; Lyngdoh, R. B.; Mandal, P. P.; Chabukdhara, M.

    2016-06-01

    North Eastern Region (NER) of India comprising of eight states considered to be most unique and one of the most challenging regions to govern due to its unique physiographic condition, rich biodiversity, disaster prone and diverse socio-economic characteristics. Operational Remote Sensing services increased manifolds in the region with the establishment of North Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC) in the year 2000. Since inception, NESAC has been providing remote sensing services in generating inventory, planning and developmental activities, and management of natural resources, disasters and dissemination of information and services through geo-web services for NER. The operational remote sensing services provided by NESAC can be broadly divided into three categories viz. natural resource planning and developmental services, disaster risk reduction and early warning services and information dissemination through geo-portal services. As a apart of natural resources planning and developmental services NESAC supports the state forest departments in preparing the forest working plans by providing geospatial inputs covering entire NER, identifying the suitable culturable wastelands for cultivation of silkworm food plants, mapping of natural resources such as land use/land cover, wastelands, land degradation etc. on temporal basis. In the area of disaster risk reduction, NESAC has initiated operational services for early warning and post disaster assessment inputs for flood early warning system (FLEWS) using satellite remote sensing, numerical weather prediction, hydrological modeling etc.; forest fire alert system with actionable attribute information; Japanese Encephalitis Early Warning System (JEWS) based on mosquito vector abundance, pig population and historical disease intensity and agriculture drought monitoring for the region. The large volumes of geo-spatial databases generated as part of operational services are made available to the administrators and

  10. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  11. Assessing the impact of heart failure specialist services on patient populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyratzopoulos Georgios

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The assessment of the impact of healthcare interventions may help commissioners of healthcare services to make optimal decisions. This can be particularly the case if the impact assessment relates to specific patient populations and uses timely local data. We examined the potential impact on readmissions and mortality of specialist heart failure services capable of delivering treatments such as b-blockers and Nurse-Led Educational Intervention (N-LEI. Methods Statistical modelling of prevented or postponed events among previously hospitalised patients, using estimates of: treatment uptake and contraindications (based on local audit data; treatment effectiveness and intolerance (based on literature; and annual number of hospitalization per patient and annual risk of death (based on routine data. Results Optimal treatment uptake among eligible but untreated patients would over one year prevent or postpone 11% of all expected readmissions and 18% of all expected deaths for spironolactone, 13% of all expected readmisisons and 22% of all expected deaths for b-blockers (carvedilol and 20% of all expected readmissions and an uncertain number of deaths for N-LEI. Optimal combined treatment uptake for all three interventions during one year among all eligible but untreated patients would prevent or postpone 37% of all expected readmissions and a minimum of 36% of all expected deaths. Conclusion In a population of previously hospitalised patients with low previous uptake of b-blockers and no uptake of N-LEI, optimal combined uptake of interventions through specialist heart failure services can potentially help prevent or postpone approximately four times as many readmissions and a minimum of twice as many deaths compared with simply optimising uptake of spironolactone (not necessarily requiring specialist services. Examination of the impact of different heart failure interventions can inform rational planning of relevant healthcare

  12. Assessing the impact of heart failure specialist services on patient populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyratzopoulos, Georgios; Cook, Gary A; McElduff, Patrick; Havely, Daniel; Edwards, Richard; Heller, Richard F

    2004-05-24

    The assessment of the impact of healthcare interventions may help commissioners of healthcare services to make optimal decisions. This can be particularly the case if the impact assessment relates to specific patient populations and uses timely local data. We examined the potential impact on readmissions and mortality of specialist heart failure services capable of delivering treatments such as b-blockers and Nurse-Led Educational Intervention (N-LEI). Statistical modelling of prevented or postponed events among previously hospitalised patients, using estimates of: treatment uptake and contraindications (based on local audit data); treatment effectiveness and intolerance (based on literature); and annual number of hospitalization per patient and annual risk of death (based on routine data). Optimal treatment uptake among eligible but untreated patients would over one year prevent or postpone 11% of all expected readmissions and 18% of all expected deaths for spironolactone, 13% of all expected readmisisons and 22% of all expected deaths for b-blockers (carvedilol) and 20% of all expected readmissions and an uncertain number of deaths for N-LEI. Optimal combined treatment uptake for all three interventions during one year among all eligible but untreated patients would prevent or postpone 37% of all expected readmissions and a minimum of 36% of all expected deaths. In a population of previously hospitalised patients with low previous uptake of b-blockers and no uptake of N-LEI, optimal combined uptake of interventions through specialist heart failure services can potentially help prevent or postpone approximately four times as many readmissions and a minimum of twice as many deaths compared with simply optimising uptake of spironolactone (not necessarily requiring specialist services). Examination of the impact of different heart failure interventions can inform rational planning of relevant healthcare services.

  13. Financial services and disaster risk finance; Examples from the community level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warner, K.; Bouwer, L.M.; Ammann, W.

    2007-01-01

    Increased attention has recently been given to the possible role of financial services in the management of natural disaster risk. Local communities have been at the forefront of developing innovative disaster risk finance strategies and implementing risk-oriented incentive programs. In view of

  14. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  15. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  16. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  17. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  18. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  19. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  20. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  1. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  2. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  3. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  4. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  5. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  6. Effectiveness of a national cardiovascular disease risk assessment program (NHS Health Check): results after one year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artac, Macide; Dalton, Andrew R H; Majeed, Azeem; Car, Josip; Millett, Christopher

    2013-08-01

    We aimed to assess whether the National Health Service (NHS) Health Check, a systematic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management program, was associated with reduction in CVD risk in attendees after one year. We extracted data from patients aged 40-74 years, with high estimated CVD risk, who were registered with general practices in a deprived, culturally diverse setting in England. We included 4748 patients at baseline (July 2008-November 2009), with 3712 at follow-up (December 2009-March 2011). We used a pre-post study design to assess changes in global CVD risk, individual CVD risk factors and statin prescription in patients with a complete and partial Health Check. There were significant reductions in mean CVD risk score (28.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI)=27.3-29.1 to 26.2%; 95% CI, 25.4-27.1), diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol levels and lipid ratios after one year in patients with a complete Health Check. Statin prescription increased from 14.0% (95% CI=11.9-16.0) to 60.6% (95% CI=57.7-63.5). The introduction of NHS Health Check was associated with significant but modest reductions in CVD risk among screened high-risk individuals. Further cost-effectiveness analysis and work accounting for uptake is required to assess whether the program can make significant changes to population health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2000-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

  8. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  9. Operational Risk Assesement Tools for Quality Management in Banking Services

    OpenAIRE

    Dima, Alina Mihaela

    2009-01-01

    Among all the different types of risks that can affect financial companies, the operational risk can be the most devastating and the most difficult to anticipate. The management of operational risk is a key component of financial and risk management discipline that drives net income results, 2capital management and customer satisfaction. The present paper contains a statistical analysis in order to determine the number of operational errors as quality based services determinants, depending on...

  10. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  11. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  12. Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2001-01-01

    Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

  13. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  14. Risk Management Model from the Perspective of the Implementing ISO 9001:2015 Standard Within Financial Services Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălina Sitnikov

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In its new form, the ISO 9001:2015 standard activates and utilizes a thought pattern based on risk assessment functioning in parallel with the implementation of the system regarding quality management. Therefore, we strive to identify the risks and opportunities associated with the processes and products needed to create and implement a system of quality management based on the ISO 9001:2015 standard. This standard is defined by a strong client-based orientation, motivation and managerial involvement from the higher levels, as well as a process-based approach and a commitment towards constant improvement. By implementing the requirements of the new version of the ISO 9001:2015 standard, the organisation needs to determine all the processes necessary to the system of quality management, as well as to identify those which include activities dealing with risks and opportunities. Considering the importance and the impact of the requirements of the new version of the ISO 9001:2015 standard, starting from theoretical concepts and underscoring a set of research vectors, a model of financial risk assessment has been devised. The model is based on the correlation which can be established between the multiplicity of components relating to the components of the new standard structure, SL Annex, elements of an approach derived from risk patterns of processes and risk types which are assessed from the perspective of financial services companies.

  15. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  16. Aging and Cardiometabolic Risk in European HEMS Pilots: An Assessment of Occupational Old-Age Limits as a Regulatory Risk Management Strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Hans; Nowak, Dennis; Herbig, Britta

    2017-12-11

    Old-age limits are imposed in some occupations in an effort to ensure public safety. In aviation, the "Age 60 Rule" limits permissible flight operations conducted by pilots aged 60 and over. Using a retrospective cohort design, we assessed this rule's validity by comparing age-related change rates of cardiometabolic incapacitation risk markers in European helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) pilots near age 60 with those in younger pilots. Specifically, individual clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiogram (ECG)-based risk markers and an overall cardiovascular event risk score were determined from aeromedical examination records of 66 German, Austrian, Polish, and Czech HEMS pilots (average follow-up 8.52 years). Risk marker change rates were assessed using linear mixed models and generalized additive models. Body mass index increases over time were slower in pilots near age 60 compared to younger pilots, and fasting glucose levels increased only in the latter. Whereas the lipid profile remained unchanged in the latter, it improved in the former. An ECG-based arrhythmia risk marker increased in younger pilots, which persisted in the older pilots. Six-month risk of a fatal cardiovascular event (in or out of cockpit) was estimated between 0% and 0.3%. Between 41% and 95% of risk marker variability was due to unexplained time-stable between-person differences. To conclude, the cardiometabolic risk marker profile of HEMS pilots appears to improve over time in pilots near age 60, compared to younger pilots. Given large stable interindividual differences, we recommend individualized risk assessment of HEMS pilots near age 60 instead of general grounding. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

  18. Fall risk assessment: retrospective analysis of Morse Fall Scale scores in Portuguese hospitalized adult patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardo, Pedro Miguel Garcez; Simões, Cláudia Sofia Oliveira; Alvarelhão, José Joaquim Marques; Simões, João Filipe Fernandes Lindo; Melo, Elsa Maria de Oliveira Pinheiro de

    2016-08-01

    The Morse Fall Scale is used in several care settings for fall risk assessment and supports the implementation of preventive nursing interventions. Our work aims to analyze the Morse Fall Scale scores of Portuguese hospitalized adult patients in association with their characteristics, diagnoses and length of stay. Retrospective cohort analysis of Morse Fall Scale scores of 8356 patients hospitalized during 2012. Data were associated to age, gender, type of admission, specialty units, length of stay, patient discharge, and ICD-9 diagnosis. Elderly patients, female, with emergency service admission, at medical units and/or with longer length of stays were more frequently included in the risk group for falls. ICD-9 diagnosis may also be an important risk factor. More than a half of hospitalized patients had "medium" to "high" risk of falling during the length of stay, which determines the implementation and maintenance of protocoled preventive nursing interventions throughout hospitalization. There are several fall risk factors not assessed by Morse Fall Scale. There were no statistical differences in Morse Fall Scale score between the first and the last assessment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  20. Learning from a Rapid Health Impact Assessment of a proposed maternity service reconfiguration in the English NHS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fell, Greg; Haroon, Sophie

    2008-04-25

    Within many parts of the country, the NHS is undertaking reconfiguration of services. Such proposals can prove a tipping point and provoke public protest, often with significant involvement of local and national politicians. We undertook a rapid Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of a proposed reconfiguration of maternity services in Huddersfield and Halifax in England. The aim of the HIA was to help the PCT Boards to assess the reconfiguration's possible consequences on access to maternity services, and maternal and infant health outcomes across different socio-economic groups in Kirklees. We report on the findings of the HIA and the usefulness of the process to decision making. This HIA used routine maternity data for 2004-2005 in Huddersfield, in addition to published evidence. Standard HIA techniques were used. We re-highlighted the socio economic differences in smoking status at booking and quitting during pregnancy. We focused on the key concerns of the public, that of adverse obstetric events on a Midwife Led Unit (MLU) with distant obstetric cover. We estimate that twenty percent of women giving birth in a MLU may require urgent transfer to obstetric care during labour. There were no significant socio economic differences. Much of the risk can be mitigated though robust risk management policies. Additional travelling distances and costs could affect lower socio-economic groups the greatest because of lower car ownership and geographical location in relation to the units. There is potential that with improved community antenatal and post natal care, population outcomes could improve significantly, the available evidence supports this view. Available evidence suggests that maternity reconfiguration towards enhanced community care could have many potential benefits but carries risk. Investment is needed to realise the former and mitigate the latter. The usefulness of this Health Impact Assessment may have been impeded by its timing, and the politically charged

  1. Learning from a Rapid Health Impact Assessment of a proposed maternity service reconfiguration in the English NHS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haroon Sophie

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Within many parts of the country, the NHS is undertaking reconfiguration of services. Such proposals can prove a tipping point and provoke public protest, often with significant involvement of local and national politicians. We undertook a rapid Health Impact Assessment (HIA of a proposed reconfiguration of maternity services in Huddersfield and Halifax in England. The aim of the HIA was to help the PCT Boards to assess the reconfiguration's possible consequences on access to maternity services, and maternal and infant health outcomes across different socio-economic groups in Kirklees. We report on the findings of the HIA and the usefulness of the process to decision making. Methods This HIA used routine maternity data for 2004–2005 in Huddersfield, in addition to published evidence. Standard HIA techniques were used. Results We re-highlighted the socio economic differences in smoking status at booking and quitting during pregnancy. We focused on the key concerns of the public, that of adverse obstetric events on a Midwife Led Unit (MLU with distant obstetric cover. We estimate that twenty percent of women giving birth in a MLU may require urgent transfer to obstetric care during labour. There were no significant socio economic differences. Much of the risk can be mitigated though robust risk management policies. Additional travelling distances and costs could affect lower socio-economic groups the greatest because of lower car ownership and geographical location in relation to the units. There is potential that with improved community antenatal and post natal care, population outcomes could improve significantly, the available evidence supports this view. Conclusion Available evidence suggests that maternity reconfiguration towards enhanced community care could have many potential benefits but carries risk. Investment is needed to realise the former and mitigate the latter. The usefulness of this Health Impact Assessment

  2. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  3. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  4. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  6. Development and application of a novel method for regional assessment of groundwater contamination risk in the Songhua River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixdorf, Erik; Sun, Yuanyuan; Lin, Mao; Kolditz, Olaf

    2017-12-15

    The main objective of this study is to quantify the groundwater contamination risk of Songhua River Basin by applying a novel approach of integrating public datasets, web services and numerical modelling techniques. To our knowledge, this study is the first to establish groundwater risk maps for the entire Songhua River Basin, one of the largest and most contamination-endangered river basins in China. Index-based groundwater risk maps were created with GIS tools at a spatial resolution of 30arc sec by combining the results of groundwater vulnerability and hazard assessment. Groundwater vulnerability was evaluated using the DRASTIC index method based on public datasets at the highest available resolution in combination with numerical groundwater modelling. As a novel approach to overcome data scarcity at large scales, a web mapping service based data query was applied to obtain an inventory for potential hazardous sites within the basin. The groundwater risk assessment demonstrated that contamination risk. These areas were mainly located in the vast plain areas with hotspots particularly in the Changchun metropolitan area. Moreover, groundwater levels and pollution point sources were found to play a significantly larger impact in assessing these areas than originally assumed by the index scheme. Moderate contamination risk was assigned to 27% of the aquifers, predominantly associated with less densely populated agricultural areas. However, the majority of aquifer area in the sparsely populated mountain ranges displayed low groundwater contamination risk. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that this novel method is valid for regional assessments of groundwater contamination risk. Despite limitations in resolution and input data consistency, the obtained groundwater contamination risk maps will be beneficial for regional and local decision-making processes with regard to groundwater protection measures, particularly if other data availability is limited. Copyright

  7. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  8. Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Services for Individuals at Ultra High Risk for Psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; De Micheli, Andrea; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Davies, Cathy; Ramella-Cravaro, Valentina; Oliver, Dominic; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Rocchetti, Matteo; Gavaghan, Lauren; Patel, Rashmi; McGuire, Philip

    2018-02-15

    The diagnostic and prognostic significance of the DSM-5-defined Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome (DSM-5-APS) in individuals undergoing an ultra high risk (UHR) clinical assessment for suspicion of psychosis risk is unknown. Prospective cohort study including all consecutive help-seeking individuals undergoing both a DSM-5-APS and a Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS 12/2006) assessment for psychosis risk at the Outreach and Support in South London (OASIS) UHR service (March 2013-April 2014). The diagnostic significance of DSM-5-APS was assessed with percent overall agreement, prevalence bias adjusted kappa, Bowker's test, Stuart-Maxwell test, residual analysis; the prognostic significance with Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier failure function, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and net benefits analysis. The impact of specific revisions of the DSM-5-APS was further tested. In 203 help-seeking individuals undergoing UHR assessment, the agreement between the DSM-5-APS and the CAARMS 12/2006 was only moderate (kappa 0.59). Among 142 nonpsychotic cases, those meeting DSM-5-APS criteria had a 5-fold probability (HR = 5.379) of developing psychosis compared to those not meeting DSM-5-APS criteria, with a 21-month cumulative risk of psychosis of 28.17% vs 6.49%, respectively. The DSM-5-APS prognostic accuracy was acceptable (AUC 0.76 at 24 months) and similar to the CAARMS 12/2006. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful to guide the provision of indicated interventions within a 7%-35% (2-year) range of psychosis risk. The removal of the criterion E or C of the DSM-5-APS may improve its prognostic performance and transdiagnostic value. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful in individuals accessing clinical services for psychosis prevention. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  9. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  11. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  12. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  13. Key outcomes from risk based assessment of pressure equipment in refineries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firth, D.; Lichti, K.; Hill, T.; Thomas, C.; Widrig, J.; Simmonds, G.; Karstensen, A.

    2012-01-01

    Risk based assessment (RBA) has become the best industry practice for management of pressure equipment reliability. Application of RBA programs significantly reduces risk and gives opportunity to optimize inspection programs and produce long term financial benefits. Quest Integrity Group have implemented risk based inspection programs n a variety of industries including ammonia, methanol, geothermal power, :combined cycle power, gas turbines, gas production facilities and refineries. This paper outlines the semi quantitative RBA procedures that have been followed and lists some of the specific technical outcomes. Advanced inspection and life assessment methods used in support of RBI in refineries ire discussed. Piping in refineries is a key risk issue and it is not uncommon for piping failures to result in major incidents. Specific inspection programs are available to monitor differing damage processes such as flow assisted corrosion, hydrogen damage and corrosion under insulation. During assessment it s often found that numerous pipes have never been inspected especially underground smaller diameter pipes which are frequently considered to be un-piggable using conventional technologies and difficult to inspect. Advanced high accuracy flexible miniaturized ultrasonic intelligent pigging combined with fitness for service assessment such as Invista TM is recommended for inspection of critical pipelines which previously have been un-piggable. The processing of crude oil from a range of sources can result in significant variations in the levels of contaminants such as chlorides and sulfides. Major failures have occurred as a result of very rapid increases in corrosion rates in hydrotreating processes due to rapid changes in chemistry. The outcome of the assessment of plants that have potentially high and variable levels of contaminants often results in a review the process chemistry, how it is monitored and development of a detailed corrosion monitoring program. Fired

  14. Pharmacists’ Attitudes and Perceived Barriers about Community Pharmacy-Based Cardiovascular Risk Screening Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Jahangard-Rafsanjani

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available  Background: Community pharmacies are considered as ideal settings to provide cardiovascular risk screening (CRS. However, little is known about pharmacists’ views on providing such services in developing countries including Iran. In the present study, we evaluated the pharmacists’ attitudes and perceived barriers to providing CRS services. Methods:In a cross-sectional study, a questionnaire in three sections was developed by the investigators (attitudes, perceived barriers, and demographics. Five likert items (5 points bipolar scale were designed to evaluate pharmacists’ attitudes about their professional role in providing CRS services in community pharmacies. Seven likert items were designed to assess the pharmacists’ perceived importance of possible barriers to providing the services. The study tool was distributed among a convenient sample of 500 pharmacists, who had participated in a national continuing education event. Results:The response rate was 44% and descriptive statistics and Chi squared test were used to analyze data. Results showed that 70.4% participants had an overall positive attitude to providing CRS services. Pharmacists who were pharmacy owner and pharmacist-in-charge simultaneously were more positive about providing CRS services. Lack of regulatory policy and compensation mechanism, limited physical space in pharmacy and time limitation were reported to be the most important barriers to providing CRS services (> 50% rated as highly important. Low human resource and time limitation were significantly associated with negative attitudes (P: 0.02 and 0.001, respectively.Conclusion:The Iranian pharmacists’ attitudes seem to be positive about providing CRS services; however, their perceived barriers should be addressed prior to CRS service implementation.

  15. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-01-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

  16. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  17. Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heikkeroe, Topi

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology

  18. Medical risk assessment in dentistry: use of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clough, S; Shehabi, Z; Morgan, C

    2016-02-12

    Medical risk assessment is essential to safe patient management and the delivery of appropriate dental care. The American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA PS) Classification is widely used within medicine and dentistry, but has received significant criticism. This is the first UK survey to assess the consistency of medical risk assessment in dentistry. (i) To determine the use and consistency of the ASA PS among dentists and anaesthetists. (ii) To consider the appropriateness of the ASA PS in relation to dental treatment planning and delivery of care. A cross-sectional online questionnaire was distributed to anaesthetists and dental practitioners in general practice, community and hospital dental services. Questions focused on professional backgrounds, use of the ASA PS, alternative approaches to risk assessment in everyday practice and scoring of eight hypothetical patients using ASA PS. There were 101 responses, 82 were complete. Anaesthetists recorded ASA PS score more frequently than dental practitioners and found it more useful. Inconsistencies were evident in the assignment of ASA PS scores both between and within professional groups. Many dental practitioners did not use or find ASA PS helpful, with significant inconsistencies in its use. An awareness of alternative assessment scales may be useful across settings. Accepting its limitations, it would be helpful for all dentists to be educated in ASA PS and its use in medical risk assessment, particularly in relation to conscious sedation.

  19. Assessing parent education programs for families involved with child welfare services: evidence and implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Michelle; Stone, Susan; Lou, Christine; Ling, Jennifer; Claassen, Jennette; Austin, Michael J

    2008-01-01

    Parent education programs may be offered or mandated at various stages of the child welfare services continuum. However, little is known regarding their efficacy in addressing the parenting problems that bring families to the attention of child welfare services. This article synthesizes outcome data generated from 58 parenting programs with families determined to be at-risk of child maltreatment and/or abusive or neglectful. It places parent education programs within the broader context of research on effective parenting as well as the leading etiological models of child maltreatment to assess the evaluations of these programs with regard to methodological rigor as well as theoretical salience. Practical and theoretical implications are presented along with recommendations for future research.

  20. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  1. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  2. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  3. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  4. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  5. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  6. Procedures for risk management and a review of crisis referrals from the MindSpot Clinic, a national service for the remote assessment and treatment of anxiety and depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielssen, Olav; Dear, Blake F; Staples, Lauren G; Dear, Rebecca; Ryan, Kathryn; Purtell, Carol; Titov, Nickolai

    2015-12-01

    The MindSpot Clinic (MindSpot) provides remote screening assessments and therapist-guided treatment for anxiety and depression to adult Australians. Most patients are self-referred. The purpose of this study was to report on the procedures followed to maintain the safety of patients and to examine the circumstances of urgent referrals to local services made by this remote mental health service. A description of the procedures used to manage risk, and an audit of case summaries of patients who were urgently referred for crisis intervention. The reported measures were scores on self-report scales of psychological distress (K-10) and depression (PHQ-9), the number reporting suicidal thoughts and plans, and the number of acute referrals. A total of 9061 people completed assessments and consented for analysis of their data in the year from 1 July, 2013 to 30 June, 2014. Of these, 2599 enrolled in online treatment at MindSpot, and the remainder were supported to access local mental health services. Suicidal thoughts were reported by 2366 (26.1 %) and suicidal plans were reported by 213 (2.4 %). There were 51 acute referrals, of whom 19 (37.3 %) lived in regional or remote locations. The main reason for referral was the patients' self-report of imminent suicidal intent. The police were notified in three cases, and in another case an ambulance attended after the patient reported taking an overdose. For the remaining acute referrals, MindSpot therapists were able to identify a local mental health service or a general practitioner, confirm receipt of a written case summary, and confirm that the patient had been contacted, or that the local service intended to contact the patient. Around 0.6 % of the people seeking assessment or treatment by MindSpot were referred to local mental health services for urgent face to face care. The procedures for identifying and managing those patients were satisfactory, and in every case, either emergency services or local mental health

  7. Using incident response trees as a tool for risk management of online financial services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorton, Dan

    2014-09-01

    The article introduces the use of probabilistic risk assessment for modeling the incident response process of online financial services. The main contribution is the creation of incident response trees, using event tree analysis, which provides us with a visual tool and a systematic way to estimate the probability of a successful incident response process against the currently known risk landscape, making it possible to measure the balance between front-end and back-end security measures. The model is presented using an illustrative example, and is then applied to the incident response process of a Swedish bank. Access to relevant data is verified and the applicability and usability of the proposed model is verified using one year of historical data. Potential advantages and possible shortcomings are discussed, referring to both the design phase and the operational phase, and future work is presented. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. A comparative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in prepackaged versus retail-sliced deli meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endrikat, Sarah; Gallagher, Daniel; Pouillot, Régis; Hicks Quesenberry, Heather; Labarre, David; Schroeder, Carl M; Kause, Janell

    2010-04-01

    Deli meat was ranked as the highest-risk ready-to-eat food vehicle of Listeria monocytogenes within the 2003 U.S. Food and Drug Administration and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Service risk assessment. The comparative risk of L. monocytogenes in retail-sliced versus prepackaged deli meats was evaluated with a modified version of this model. Other research has found that retail-sliced deli meats have both higher prevalence and levels of L. monocytogenes than have product sliced and packaged at the manufacturer level. The updated risk assessment model considered slicing location as well as the use of growth inhibitors. The per annum comparative risk ratio for the number of deaths from retail-sliced versus prepackaged deli meats was found to be 4.89, and the per-serving comparative risk ratio was 4.27. There was a significant interaction between the use of growth inhibitors and slicing location. Almost 70% of the estimated deaths occurred from retail-sliced product that did not possess a growth inhibitor. A sensitivity analysis, assessing the effect of the model's consumer storage time and shelf life assumptions, found that even if retail-sliced deli meats were stored for a quarter of the time prepackaged deli meats were stored, retail-sliced product is 1.7 times more likely to result in death from listeriosis. Sensitivity analysis also showed that the shelf life assumption had little effect on the comparative risk ratio.

  9. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  10. Evaluating intersectoral collaboration: a model for assessment by service users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bengt Ahgren

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: DELTA was launched as a project in 1997 to improve intersectoral collaboration in the rehabilitation field. In 2005 DELTA was transformed into a local association for financial co-ordination between the institutions involved. Based on a study of the DELTA service users, the purpose of this article is to develop and to validate a model that can be used to assess the integration of welfare services from the perspective of the service users. Theory: The foundation of integration is a well functioning structure of integration. Without such structural conditions, it is difficult to develop a process of integration that combines the resources and competences of the collaborating organisations to create services advantageous for the service users. In this way, both the structure and the process will contribute to the outcome of integration. Method: The study was carried out as a retrospective cross-sectional survey during two weeks, including all the current service users of DELTA. The questionnaire contained 32 questions, which were derived from the theoretical framework and research on service users, capturing perceptions of integration structure, process and outcome. Ordinal scales and open questions where used for the assessment. Results: The survey had a response rate of 82% and no serious biases of the results were detected. The study shows that the users of the rehabilitation services perceived the services as well integrated, relevant and adapted to their needs. The assessment model was tested for reliability and validity and a few modifications were suggested. Some key measurement themes were derived from the study. Conclusion: The model developed in this study is an important step towards an assessment of service integration from the perspective of the service users. It needs to be further refined, however, before it can be used in other evaluations of collaboration in the provision of integrated welfare services.

  11. How professionals perceive types of risk in public service innovation: Reports from Copenhagen municipality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timeus, Krista; Ricard, Lykke Margot

    The paper addresses two questions; what do professionals working in the public administration understand by ‘risk’ in relation to their work on innovation?; and how do these professionals understand their own role in managing risks of innovation? The paper takes an inductive approach and focuses....... In the last five years, Copenhagen municipality has implemented programmes and partnerships for innovation, especially in social services, such as a new ‘innovation house’ to coordinate the municipality’s innovation strategy across all administrative departments. This context makes it a suitable case to study...... on individuals, namely, professionals in Copenhagen municipality working on public services innovation. Such innovation includes new services or new methods of service delivery. Although all types of innovation include some risk, in public services, risks are exacerbated by the vulnerability of many users...

  12. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  13. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  14. Risk-informed in-service inspections of nuclear power plants: European activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simola, K.; Gandossi, L.

    2010-01-01

    Risk-informed in-service inspection (RI-ISI) methods aim at enhancing ISI effectiveness by taking into account the risk importance of possible inspection sites. These methods are widely applied in US, but in Europe the situation is different, as there are many regulatory environments implying a variety of ISI codes and standards and national guidelines. The objective of the European Network for Inspection Qualification, ENIQ, is to co-ordinate and to manage at European level expertise and resources for the qualification of non-destructive inspection techniques and procedures primarily for the in-service inspection of nuclear components. ENIQ has established a Task Group on Risk (TGR) to work towards developing best practice for RI-ISI methodologies. TGR has published a European framework document for risk-informed in-service inspection, and the group has been working at producing more detailed recommended practices and discussion documents on several RI-ISI related issues. In addition, TGR has been active in initiating international projects, such as the JRC-OECD/NEA coordinated RI-ISI benchmark exercise (RISMET). This paper describes the activities and publications of TGR to date, and summarises the contents and main results of the RISMET RI-ISI benchmark exercise. (orig.)

  15. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  16. [Assessment of risk of burden in construction: improvement interventions and contribution of the competent physician].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinelli, R; Tarquini, M

    2012-01-01

    Three construction companies in three years have changed the operating modes, making use of innovative carpentry, with little amount of equipment, improved usability of the site, reduced cleaning time, less manual handling and reduced risk of accidents. The Competent Doctor has participated in the review of the risk assessment of manual handling: data has been acquired on musculoskeletal disorders to compare, in terms of this innovation, the average trend and changes, with encouraging results in terms of incidence of musculoskeletal disorders, absenteeism due to illness by these causes, new cases of lumbar diseases. It remains difficult in building to assess manual handling risk, but the collaboration between the Employer, Prevention and Protection Service and Competent Doctor, thanks to the greater attention that the design subject to these issues, suggests improvements and further steps to extend to all phases of operation of building.

  17. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  18. Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

    2015-04-01

    This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  20. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  1. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  2. Assessing service quality satisfying the expectations of library customers

    CERN Document Server

    Hernon, Peter; Dugan, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Academic and public libraries are continuing to transform as the information landscape changes, expanding their missions into new service roles that call for improved organizational performance and accountability. Since Assessing Service Quality premiered in 1998, receiving the prestigious Highsmith Library Literature Award, scores of library managers and administrators have trusted its guidance for applying a customer-centered approach to service quality and performance evaluation. This extensively revised and updated edition explores even further the ways technology influences both the experiences of library customers and the ways libraries themselves can assess those experiences.

  3. Animal populations and environmental risks. Approaches for assessment and monitoring; Popolazioni animali e rischi ambientali. Approcci per la valutazione ed il monitoraggio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Girolamo, Irene [Istituto Superiore di Sanita` , Rome (Italy). Lab. di Igiene Ambientale; Mantovani, Alberto [Istituto Superiore di Sanita` , Rome (Italy). Lab. di Tossicologia Comparata ed Ecotossicologia

    1998-12-31

    The main contributions of the `4th Course Veterinary medicine and environmental contamination` held at the Istituto Superiore di Sanita` on September 18-22 1995 are presented. They are organized into three sections: a) general concepts (principles of ecology, toxicological risk assessment, risk communication and environmental regulations relevant to the activities of veterinary services); b) methodological approaches (indicators of environmental quality which can be used by the public health services; use of invertebrates and of domestic, synanthropic and wild animals to assess environmental from animal epidemics; radioactive contamination); c) field experiences (pollutants in honey; contamination from hydrocarbons in anthropic and coastal environments; problems of health education).

  4. Animal populations and environmental risks. Approaches for assessment and monitoring; Popolazioni animali e rischi ambientali. Approcci per la valutazione ed il monitoraggio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Girolamo, Irene [Istituto Superiore di Sanita`, Rome (Italy). Lab. di Igiene Ambientale; Mantovani, Alberto [Istituto Superiore di Sanita`, Rome (Italy). Lab. di Tossicologia Comparata ed Ecotossicologia

    1997-12-31

    The main contributions of the `4th Course Veterinary medicine and environmental contamination` held at the Istituto Superiore di Sanita` on September 18-22 1995 are presented. They are organized into three sections: a) general concepts (principles of ecology, toxicological risk assessment, risk communication and environmental regulations relevant to the activities of veterinary services); b) methodological approaches (indicators of environmental quality which can be used by the public health services; use of invertebrates and of domestic, synanthropic and wild animals to assess environmental from animal epidemics; radioactive contamination); c) field experiences (pollutants in honey; contamination from hydrocarbons in anthropic and coastal environments; problems of health education).

  5. Training needs assessment of service providers: targeted intervention for HIV/AIDS in Jharkhand, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Anant; Kumar, Prakash

    2013-01-01

    Training needs assessments are pivotal for any capacity building program. Building capacity of service providers and staff involved in HIV/AIDS intervention programs is crucial because of the distinct nature of such programs. It requires specific knowledge, skills, and attitudes that are of utmost importance, influencing the reach of the program and its impact in halting and reversing the epidemic. This study was conducted to identify the training needs assessment of personnel involved in targeted intervention for high risk populations vulnerable to HIV infection in Jharkhand, India. Through the study the authors critically examine the existing training needs and gaps and suggest strategies to address them.

  6. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Assessment of cardiometabolic risk among shift workers in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jermendy György

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim Shift workers may be at risk of different diseases. In order to assess cardiometabolic risk in shift workers, a cross-sectional study was performed among active workers. Methods A total of 481 workers (121 men, 360 women were investigated; most of them were employees in light industry (58.2% or in public services (23.9%. Past medical history was recorded and physical examination was performed. Questionnaires were used to characterize daily activity. Fasting venous blood sample was collected for measuring laboratory parameters. Data from shift workers (n = 234, age: 43.9 ± 8.1 years were compared to those of daytime workers (n = 247, age: 42.8 ± 8.5 years, men and women were analyzed separately. Results In men, systolic blood pressure was higher in shift workers compared to daytime workers (133 ± 8 vs 126 ± 17 mmHg; p vs 67.7 ± 13.2 kg; p vs 13.4%; p vs 21.7%; p vs 1.68 ± 0.36 mmol/l; p Conclusion Middle-aged active shift workers, especially women, have a less healthy lifestyle and are at higher cardiometabolic risk as compared to daytime workers. Our study highlights the importance of measures for identifying and preventing cardiometabolic risk factors in shift workers.

  8. 78 FR 9701 - Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-11

    ... on the sources of L. monocytogenes contamination, the effects of individual manufacturing and/or... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration [Docket No. FDA-2012-N-1182] Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

  9. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  10. Optimizing prevention of hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (VTE): prospective validation of a VTE risk assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Gregory A; Morris, Timothy A; Jenkins, Ian H; Stone, Sarah; Lee, Joshua; Renvall, Marian; Fink, Ed; Schoenhaus, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Hospital-acquired (HA) venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common source of morbidity/mortality. Prophylactic measures are underutilized. Available risk assessment models/protocols are not prospectively validated. Improve VTE prophylaxis, reduce HA VTE, and prospectively validate a VTE risk-assessment model. Observational design. Academic medical center. Adult inpatients on medical/surgical services. A simple VTE risk assessment linked to a menu of preferred VTE prophylaxis methods, embedded in order sets. Education, audit/feedback, and concurrent identification of nonadherence. Randomly sampled inpatient audits determined the percent of patients with "adequate" VTE prevention. HA VTE cases were identified concurrently via digital imaging system. Interobserver agreement for VTE risk level and judgment of adequate prophylaxis were calculated from 150 random audits. Interobserver agreement with 5 observers was high (kappa score for VTE risk level = 0.81, and for judgment of "adequate" prophylaxis = 0.90). The percent of patients on adequate prophylaxis improved each of the 3 years (58%, 78%, and 93%; P risk of HA VTE (risk ratio [RR] = 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.47-0.79) and preventable HA VTE (RR = 0.14; 95% CI = 0.06-0.31) occurred. We detected no increase in heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) or prophylaxis-related bleeding using administrative data/chart review. We prospectively validated a VTE risk-assessment/prevention protocol by demonstrating ease of use, good interobserver agreement, and effectiveness. Improved VTE prophylaxis resulted in a substantial reduction in HA VTE. (c) 2010 Society of Hospital Medicine.

  11. OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING SERVICES IN NORTH EASTERN REGION OF INDIA FOR NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, EARLY WARNING FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION AND SERVICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. L. N. Raju

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available North Eastern Region (NER of India comprising of eight states considered to be most unique and one of the most challenging regions to govern due to its unique physiographic condition, rich biodiversity, disaster prone and diverse socio-economic characteristics. Operational Remote Sensing services increased manifolds in the region with the establishment of North Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC in the year 2000. Since inception, NESAC has been providing remote sensing services in generating inventory, planning and developmental activities, and management of natural resources, disasters and dissemination of information and services through geo-web services for NER. The operational remote sensing services provided by NESAC can be broadly divided into three categories viz. natural resource planning and developmental services, disaster risk reduction and early warning services and information dissemination through geo-portal services. As a apart of natural resources planning and developmental services NESAC supports the state forest departments in preparing the forest working plans by providing geospatial inputs covering entire NER, identifying the suitable culturable wastelands for cultivation of silkworm food plants, mapping of natural resources such as land use/land cover, wastelands, land degradation etc. on temporal basis. In the area of disaster risk reduction, NESAC has initiated operational services for early warning and post disaster assessment inputs for flood early warning system (FLEWS using satellite remote sensing, numerical weather prediction, hydrological modeling etc.; forest fire alert system with actionable attribute information; Japanese Encephalitis Early Warning System (JEWS based on mosquito vector abundance, pig population and historical disease intensity and agriculture drought monitoring for the region. The large volumes of geo-spatial databases generated as part of operational services are made available to the

  12. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  13. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  14. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  15. Impact risk assessment for the ATV using ESABASE/DEBRIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrami Karlezi, P.; Drolshagen, G.; Lambert, M.

    2001-10-01

    The European Space Agency ESA participates in the International Space Station with various programs, one of them being the Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV). The ATV is an unmanned servicing and logistics vehicle launched on Ariane 5 and designed to fulfil different roles like cargo transport, re-supply of fuel and consumables and orbit re-boost of the International Space Station (ISS). For this reason it is important that the risks imposed on these modules by meteoroids and orbital debris are calculated accurately. Following such calculations the Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Protection System (M/ODPS) can be optimised. This paper presents the results of the risk assessment of meteoroids and space debris for the ATV spacecraft attached to the ISS using different shield configurations. The results are presented as the probability of no penetration (PNP) for each component and each configuration. They are compared to a target PNP requirement of 0.999 for 135 days and the weight penalty produced by the extra shielding is given.

  16. 76 FR 44891 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-27

    ...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft environmental assessment for the proposed...-2817 before coming. The petition, draft environmental assessment, and plant pest risk assessment are...

  17. ICT services for active ageing and independent living: identification and assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christophorou, Christophoros; Kleanthous, Styliani; Georgiadis, Dimosthenis; Cereghetti, Donato M; Andreou, Panayiotis; Wings, Cindy; Christodoulou, Eleni; Samaras, George

    2016-09-01

    Based on the demographic changes and the rapid increase of older population in Europe, major challenges are expected to rise, both in the economy as well as the society, whether the dominant care model for supporting elderly in living independently at home continues to rely on informal and formal caregivers' assistance. To respond to the above challenges, assistive technologies are called to develop Information and Communication Technology (ICT) services for supporting seniors to remain active and independent, for as long as possible, in their chosen home environment. The work described in this Letter is based on the Miraculous-Life project and it emphasises the identification and assessment of a set of services that an ICT system for Ageing Well should support, in an actual end-users setting. The outcome of this work may inform fellow researchers and other projects in the area of Ageing Well in: (i) understanding which ICT services can be the most valuable for end-users' Quality of Life, (ii) prioritising the development of related ICT services and (iii) facilitating better recourse allocation in order to reduce any risks associated to implementation failures of these services within their respective projects. A final trial phase is planned, aiming to validate the Miraculous Life prototype longitudinally in a naturalistic environment with a larger sample size. During this trial, it will be investigated if perceived usefulness, satisfaction and motivation could be predicted by sociodemographic variables and personality.

  18. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  20. Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

  1. Fall Risk, Supports and Services, and Falls Following a Nursing Home Discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noureldin, Marwa; Hass, Zachary; Abrahamson, Kathleen; Arling, Greg

    2017-09-04

    Falls are a major source of morbidity and mortality among older adults; however, little is known regarding fall occurrence during a nursing home (NH) to community transition. This study sought to examine whether the presence of supports and services impacts the relationship between fall-related risk factors and fall occurrence post NH discharge. Participants in the Minnesota Return to Community Initiative who were assisted in achieving a community discharge (N = 1459) comprised the study sample. The main outcome was fall occurrence within 30 days of discharge. Factor analyses were used to estimate latent models from variables of interest. A structural equation model (SEM) was estimated to determine the relationship between the emerging latent variables and falls. Fifteen percent of participants fell within 30 days of NH discharge. Factor analysis of fall-related risk factors produced three latent variables: fall concerns/history; activities of daily living impairments; and use of high-risk medications. A supports/services latent variable also emerged that included caregiver support frequency, medication management assistance, durable medical equipment use, discharge location, and receipt of home health or skilled nursing services. In the SEM model, high-risk medications use and fall concerns/history had direct positive effects on falling. Receiving supports/services did not affect falling directly; however, it reduced the effect of high-risk medication use on falling (p risk of falling post NH discharge. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith

    2001-01-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision

  3. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in

  4. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  5. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  6. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  7. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, Patrick [Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XI, Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection (Belgium)

    1992-07-01

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  8. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, Patrick

    1992-01-01

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  9. Strategy for prioritizing whistleblowing with potential risks related to health services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Fernandes Barros

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Sanitary Surveillance of Health Services receives daily denunciations that refer to situations of risk that can hardly be measured quantitatively and attribute to some type of specific damage, in a context of great uncertainty. Objective: Considering such situations should be adequately addressed under the health risk paradigm, this work had as objective identifying notions about risk and its forms of analysis in the scope of Sanitary Surveillance of Health Services, as well as the existence of strategies and models in the analysis and treatment of denunciations. Method: An extensive literature review (through the Regional Portal of the BVS, databases SciELO and SciELO Books, and the journal Visa em Debate was conducted. Results: Although the results point to a relatively recent discussion regarding the model of potential risk analysis as an operational concept for the field of health surveillance in health services, there is no description of strategies or models applied to the analysis or treatment of whistleblowing. Thus, it is discussed and proposed a strategy for the initial analysis of reports with potential risk, which seeks to bring minimally objective criteria, in a field marked by enormous subjectivity. Conclusions: We conclude by indicating that the presented strategy is an initial instrument for the management of whistleblowing that must be discussed and adapted to the reality and context of health surveillance agencies.

  10. Examining Fall Recurrence Risk of Homebound Hispanic Older Adults Receiving Home Care Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solis, Guillermina R; Champion, Jane Dimmitt

    2017-03-01

    Unintentional falls and injuries is a major problem among older adults and the fourth cause of death in the United States. A previous fall event doubles the risk of recurrence and lessens the person's quality of life. Hispanic older adults have higher rates of disability and lower independent functioning due to poor medical health and risk for fall recurrence. Most fall studies focus on fall risk with few studies on fall recurrence in older adults receiving home health care services unrelated to fall incident. A descriptive pilot study of 30 homebound Hispanic older adults receiving home care services who reported a fall within 3 months was conducted by a multidisciplinary team to evaluate risk of fall recurrence. A heightened risk for fall recurrence was identified with high number of chronic illnesses, high intake of medications, vision problems, and prevalence of urinary incontinence. Findings highlight significant number of intrinsic factors for fall risk recurrence and injuries in a Hispanic older adults population that is homebound and receiving home care services. A multidisciplinary evaluation and culturally appropriate interventions to lessen the risk of fall recurrence are recommended.

  11. Association Between Employee Dental Claims, Health Risks, Workplace Productivity, and Preventive Services Compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Wayne N; Chen, Chin-Yu; Li, Xingquan; Schultz, Alyssa B

    2017-08-01

    This study examined differences in health risks and workplace outcomes among employees who utilized preventive dental services compared with other employees. A retrospective observational study of employees of a large financial services corporation, with data from health risk appraisal questionnaires, medical claims, pharmacy claims, and dental claims. Employees with no dental claims were significantly more likely to have a variety of health risk factors (such as obesity and tobacco use), health conditions (such as diabetes), absenteeism, and lost on-the-job productivity, and were significantly less likely to be compliant with clinical preventive services compared with those with preventive dental claims. Employees with preventive dental claims had fewer health risks and medical conditions and better health and productivity measures. Study employees underutilized free dental care; employers should incorporate preventive dental care awareness into their worksite wellness programs.

  12. Military service absences and family members' mental health: A timeline followback assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Aubrey J; Margolin, Gayla

    2015-08-01

    Although military service, and particularly absence due to deployment, has been linked to risk for depression and anxiety among some spouses and children of active duty service members, there is limited research to explain the heterogeneity in family members' reactions to military service stressors. The current investigation introduces the Timeline Followback Military Family Interview (TFMFI) as a clinically useful strategy to collect detailed time-linked information about the service member's absences. Two dimensions of parent absence--the extent to which absences coincide with important family events and cumulative time absent--were tested as potential risks to family members' mental health. Data from 70 mother-adolescent pairs revealed that the number of important family events missed by the service member was linked to elevated youth symptoms of depression, even when accounting for the number of deployments and cumulative duration of the service member's absence. However, youth who reported more frequent contact with the service member during absences were buffered from the effects of extensive absence. Mothers' symptoms were associated with the cumulative duration of the service members' time away, but not with family events missed by the service member. These results identify circumstances that increase the risk for mental health symptoms associated with military family life. The TFMFI provides an interview-based strategy for clinicians wishing to understand military family members' lived experience during periods of service-member absence. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  14. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  15. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  16. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  17. 78 FR 15894 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-13

    .... FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for... comment period for a document entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/ [[Page... ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside the Farm...

  18. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  19. 76 FR 23860 - Financial Management Service Proposed Collection of Information: Schedule of Excess Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-28

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Fiscal Service Financial Management Service Proposed Collection of Information: Schedule of Excess Risks AGENCY: Financial Management Service, Fiscal Service, Treasury. ACTION: Notice and request for comments. SUMMARY: The Financial Management Service, as part of its continuing...

  20. Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyles, John; Heddle, Nancy; Webert, Kathryn; Arnold, Emmy; McCurdy, Bronwen

    2011-08-24

    Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

  1. Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold Emmy

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Methods Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. Results While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Conclusions Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

  2. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  3. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  4. Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

    2010-01-01

    Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

  5. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  6. A spatial analysis of integrated risk: vulnerability of ecosystem services provisioning to different hazards in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pártl, Adam; Vačkář, David; Loučková, Blanka; Lorencová, Eliška

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 89, č. 3 (2017), s. 1185-1204 ISSN 0921-030X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA MV VG20122015091 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : Ecosystems * Ecosystem services * Czech Republic * Integrated risk assessment * Vulnerability * GIS Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 1.833, year: 2016

  7. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  8. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  9. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narumiya, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  10. Assessing Future Ecosystem Services: a Case Study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garry D. Peterson

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which the projected use of ecological services is substantially different. The work reported in this paper demonstrates how scenarios can be developed for a region and provides a starting point for a participatory discussion of alternative futures for northern Wisconsin. Although the future is unknowable, we hope that the assessment process begun in this paper will help the people of the Northern Highlands Lake District choose the future path of their region.

  11. Risk assessment of safety violations for coal mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Megan Orsulaka; Vladislav Kecojevicb; Larry Graysona; Antonio Nietoa [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States). Dept of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2010-09-15

    This article presents an application of a risk assessment approach in characterising the risks associated with safety violations in underground bituminous mines in Pennsylvania using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) citation database. The MSHA database on citations provides an opportunity to assess risks in mines through scrutiny of violations of mandatory safety standards. In this study, quantitative risk assessment is performed, which allows determination of the frequency of occurrence of safety violations (through associated citations) as well as the consequences of them in terms of penalty assessments. Focus is on establishing risk matrices on citation experiences of mines, which can give early indication of emerging potentially serious problems. The resulting frequency, consequence and risk rankings present valuable tools for prioritising resource allocations, determining control strategies, and could potentially contribute to more proactive prevention of incidents and injuries.

  12. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  13. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  14. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  15. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  16. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  17. Customer-oriented risk assessment in network utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gómez Fernández, Juan F.; Márquez, Adolfo Crespo; López-Campos, Mónica A.

    2016-01-01

    For companies that distribute services such as telecommunications, water, energy, gas, etc., quality perceived by the customers has a strong impact on the fulfillment of financial goals, positively increasing the demand and negatively increasing the risk of customer churn (loss of customers). Failures by these companies may cause customer affection in a massive way, augmenting the intention to leave the company. Therefore, maintenance performance and specifically service reliability has a strong influence on financial goals. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate the contribution of the maintenance department in economic terms, based on service unreliability by network failures. The developed methodology aims to provide an analysis of failures to facilitate decision making about maintenance (preventive/predictive and corrective) costs versus negative impacts in end-customer invoicing based on the probability of losing customers. Survival analysis of recurrent failures with the General Renewal Process distribution is used for this novel purpose with the intention to be applied as a standard procedure to calculate the expected maintenance financial impact, for a given period of time. Also, geographical areas of coverage are distinguished, enabling the comparison of different technical or management alternatives. Two case studies in a telecommunications services company are presented in order to illustrate the applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Reliability and reparability impact the rate of abandonment of customers. • Expected reliability and interruptions must be contemplated in services contracts. • Preventive maintenance reduces the risk of abandonment, besides corrective costs. • Analysis of investment in service reliability vs. impact on customer retention. • Reliability of services has a positive impact in business financial situation.

  18. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  19. Complaints and compliments assessment in developing service delivery measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norshahrizan Nordin

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Excellent healthcare services delivered to patients would not necessarily entail an excellent patient service fulfillment, fulfill patient expectations, and attain high satisfaction levels. Hence, patient satisfaction is multifactorial and difficult to measure. Appliance of satisfaction model, service dissatisfaction and satisfaction feedback are able to translate the nonlinear attributes for a more accurate service dissatisfaction and satisfaction feedback assessment. Service recipients of experienced Inpatient and Outpatient (IOPs can be translated into levels of compliments and complaints to describe degrees of patient satisfaction and dissatisfaction, respectively. Compliments and complaints voiced by patients should be taken seriously. As a result, the translation of service satisfaction and service dissatisfaction based on compliments and complaints from patients in the form of satisfaction index SCi and dissatisfaction index SCa introduced a new theoretical concept of concurrent and balance measurement in evaluating customer (VOC or VOPs feedback. In normal practice, the service improvement is usually based on complaints or dissatisfaction aspect, but the compliments or satisfaction aspect on the same service delivery was always neglected. In this study, the formulation which was based on a non-linear assessment, not only amplified the effectiveness in communicating patients’ compliments and complaints in a more receptive manner but also corresponded with Kano model.

  20. Cloud Computing Services: Benefits, Risks and Intellectual Property Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IONELA BĂLŢĂTESCU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Major software players of the global market, such as Google, Amazon and Microsoft are developing cloud computing solutions, providing cloud services on demand: Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS, Platform as a Service (PaaS and Software as a service (SaaS. In software industry and also in ICT services market, cloud computing is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, the expansion of cloud services indirectly contributed to the development and improvement of other types of services on the market – financial and accounting services, human resources services, educational services etc. – in terms of quality and affordability. Given the fact that cloud computing applications proved to be more affordable for small and medium enterprises (SME, an increasing number of companies in almost all the fields of activity have chosen cloud based solutions, such as Enterprise Resource Management (ERP software and Customer Relationship Management (CRM software. However, cloud computing services involve also some risks concerning privacy, security of data and lack of interoperability between cloud platforms. Patent strategy of certain proprietary software companies leaded to a veritable “patent war” and “patent arm race” endangering the process of standardization in software industry, especially in cloud computing. Intellectual property (IP legislation and court ruling in patent litigations is likely to have a significant impact on the development of cloud computing industry and cloud services.

  1. Risk informed in-service inspection and testing in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bros, Juan; Marcelles, Ignacio

    2002-01-01

    The Spanish nuclear regulatory authority, the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (CSN), requires the use of codes and standards in force in the country of origin of the plant technology. For this reason, the in-service inspection and testing programs applied at Spanish nuclear power plants basically adhere to the requirements of the ASME XI and ASME OM Codes. It is not surprising that when the earliest developments aimed at drawing up risk informed inservice inspection and testing programs were initiated within the framework of ASME, the Spanish industry should follows such developments very closely. In fact, persons within the Spanish nuclear industry joined different ASME committees involved in the development and approval of the various code cases encompassing these developments. Developments specific to the Spanish nuclear power plants were initiated at a time when the aforementioned reference documentation was in a very advanced stage of development/approval. Two clearly differentiated lines of work got under way: On the one hand, and as regards risk informed in-service testing programs, the American standards were used as the sole reference. In the case of risk informed in-service inspection programs, the Spanish nuclear power plant-owning utilities and the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear decided to draw up a Spanish guideline that, although using the ASME developments as a reference, would have its own specific characteristics. In relation to the above, and referring to the chronology of the events, the activities performed to date in Spain are described

  2. Caries risk assessment tool and prevention protocol for public health nurses in mother and child health centers, Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natapov, Lena; Dekel-Markovich, Dan; Granit-Palmon, Hadas; Aflalo, Efrat; Zusman, Shlomo Paul

    2018-01-01

    Dental caries is the most prevalent chronic disease in children. Caries risk assessment tools enable the dentists, physicians, and nondental health care providers to assess the individual's risk. Intervention by nurses in primary care settings can contribute to the establishment of oral health habits and prevention of dental disease. In Israel, Mother and Child Health Centers provide free preventive services for pregnant women and children by public health nurses. A caries prevention program in health centers started in 2015. Nurses underwent special training regarding caries prevention. A customized Caries Risk Assessment tool and Prevention Protocol for nurses, based on the AAPD tool, was introduced. A two-step evaluation was conducted which included a questionnaire and in-depth phone interviews. Twenty-eight (out of 46) health centers returned a completed questionnaire. Most nurses believed that oral health preventive services should be incorporated into their daily work. In the in-depth phone interviews, nurses stated that the integration of the program into their busy daily schedule was realistic and appropriate. The lack of specific dental module for computer program was mentioned as an implementation difficulty. The wide use of our tool by nurses supports its simplicity and feasibility which enables quick calculation and informed decision making. The nurses readily embraced the tool and it became an integral part of their toolkit. We provide public health nurses with a caries risk assessment tool and prevention protocol thus integrating oral health into general health of infants and toddlers. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  4. Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ragozin, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

  5. Resource handbook on transport risk assessment (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; Luna, R.; Weiner, R.; Yoshimura, R.; Detrick, C.; Dunn, T.; Maheras, S.; Bhatnager, S.; Kapoor, A.K.

    2003-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program established the DOE Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group (TRAWG) to develop the Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment, published in July 2002. The working group is comprised of technical experts representing DOE national laboratories, the DOE Naval Reactors Program, and DOE contractors. The motivation behind preparing this handbook was to document and disseminate lessons learned and information accumulated from more than 20 years of experience by DOE and its contractors in preparing transport risk assessments that address the shipment of virtually all types of radioactive materials and wastes. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information on conducting transport risk assessments for shipments of radioactive materials or wastes under both normal and accident conditions. The paper provides an overview of the information contained in the handbook. It should be recognised that development of radioactive materials transport risk assessment is an ongoing process, and that the analysis methods are regularly improved. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment appears on the Web at www.ntp.doe.gov/transrisk_handbook.pdf. (author)

  6. Safety and security risk assessments--now demystified!

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Donald E

    2011-01-01

    Safety/security risk assessments no longer need to spook nor baffle healthcare safety/security managers. This grid template provides at-at-glance quick lookup of the possible threats, the affected people and things, a priority ranking of these risks, and a workable solution for each risk. Using the standard document, spreadsheet, or graphics software already available on your computer, you can easily use a scientific method to produce professional looking risk assessments that get quickly understood by both senior managers and first responders alike!

  7. An exploration of service user involvement in the assessment of students

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naylor, S.; Harcus, J.; Elkington, M.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: This paper is an exploration of service user involvement in assessing first year diagnostic radiography students' ability to practise and interact with the public safely prior to attending placement. Service users took the role of patients during a simulation exercise undertaken in a general X-ray room. In recent years the importance of involving service users in all aspects of healthcare has been promoted; this includes being involved in the education of healthcare workers. The evaluation of service user involvement in the education of healthcare workers is limited, as is any literature about service user involvement outside nursing, mental health, and social work. Method: Feedback was obtained via email and face to face via a focus group from academic staff, service users and students using open questions. Results: The benefits of service user involvement were that it made the exercise more relevant and meaningful. It was perceived as a valuable exercise for the students to interact with service users in terms of developing, and for assessing, patient care, communication and positioning skills. The service users valued the experience. Issues highlighted include travel to the venue and the physical demands on the service user. Concerns highlighted by previous authors of preparation of the service users for their role, and remuneration had been addressed prior to the exercise. Conclusion: There is increasing diversity in the ways in which service users are involved in education. Service user involvement as patients in a simulation exercise for student assessment was deemed successful in this setting. - Highlights: • There is limited literature about service user involvement outside nursing, mental health and social work. • There are benefits to involving service users in the assessment of student diagnostic radiographers. • There are challenges to involving service users in the assessment of student diagnostic radiographers

  8. Health risk assessment for a MWC ash utilization demonstration project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roffman, H.K.

    1992-01-01

    A Health Risk Assessment (HRA) was conducted for the proposed joint Hennepin County/Municipal Services Corporation (MSC) MSW Ash Utilization Demonstration Project, in which combined HERC ash was shipped to the MSC Pilot Plan near Atlanta, Georgia and used in the production of a synthetic aggregate. The synthetic aggregate, or TAP, will serve as a partial replacement for natural aggregates in a section of bituminous pavement that is proposed to be constructed on Pioneer Trail in the City of Corcoran, Minnesota. In this paper, the assessment compares the following three scenarios: a section of roadway paved using the MSC synthetic aggregate product (TAP) as a replacement for 30 percent of the natural aggregates used in bituminous pavement; a section of regular bituminous (asphalt) pavement; and a section of unpaved road currently in place at the site

  9. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

  10. Assessment of Extension Service Delivery on Improved Cassava ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Extension service delivery is too often merely seen as a vehicle for spreading scientific and technical progress and technology transfer. In the real sense, however, dissemination of knowledge is not a one way affair from scientists to producers. The study was conducted to assess extension service delivery on improved ...

  11. Social Filters in Assessing Higher Education Services Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shkurkin, Anatoly; Lutsenko, Ekaterina; Bazhenova, Natalia; Bazhenov, Ruslan; Bogachenko, Natalia

    2016-01-01

    The main goal of this work is to reveal social filters in the system of assessing the higher education services market. On the basis of the institutional interpretation of market relations, mechanisms and features of asymmetries formation in the educational services market are investigated. The role of the institutional environment ensuring…

  12. Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.

    Preface This publication is a first version of a manual identifying the data needs for ecological risk assessment of genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). It is the intention of the authors to stimulate further discussion of what data are needed in order to conduct a proper ecological risk...... of the project Biotechnology: elements in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. December 1999 Christian Kjær Introduction In ecological risk assessment of transgenic plants, information on a wide range of subjects is needed for an effective and reliable assessment procedure...... in the amendment to the directive. This report suggests a structured way to identify the type of data needed to perform a sound ecological risk assessment for genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). The identified data types are intended to support the evaluation of the following risks: risk of invasion...

  13. Draft CSA standard on environmental risk assessments at class I nuclear facilities and uranium mines and mills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, D.; Garisto, N.; Parker, R.; Kovacs, R.; Thompson, B.

    2012-01-01

    The Canadian Standards Association (CSA) is preparing a draft Standard on environmental risk assessments (ERAs) at Class I nuclear facilities and uranium mines and mills (CSA N288.6). It is being prepared by a technical subcommittee of the CSA N288 Technical Committee, including experts from across the nuclear industry, government and regulatory authorities, and environmental service providers, among others. It addresses the design, implementation, and management of environmental risk assessment programs, and is intended to standardize practice across the industry. This paper outlines the scope of the draft Standard and highlights key features. It is under development and subject to change. (author)

  14. Use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in expert systems to advise nuclear plant operators and managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uhrig, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    The use of expert systems in nuclear power plants to provide advice to managers, supervisors and/or operators is a concept that is rapidly gaining acceptance. Generally, expert systems rely on the expertise of human experts or knowledge that has been codified in publications, books, or regulations to provide advice under a wide variety of conditions. In this work, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant performed previously is used to assess the safety status of nuclear power plants and to make recommendations to the plant personnel. Nuclear power plants have many redundant systems and can continue to operate when one or more of these systems is disabled or removed from service for maintenance or testing. PRAs provide a means of evaluating the risk to the public associated with the operation of nuclear power plants with components or systems out of service. While the choice of the source term and methodology in a PRA may influence the absolute probability and consequences of a core melt, the ratio of the PRA calculations for two configurations of the same plant, carried out on a consistent basis, can readily identify the increase in risk associated with going from one configuration to the other

  15. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  16. Hybrid data mining-regression for infrastructure risk assessment based on zero-inflated data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, S.D.; Quiring, S.M.

    2012-01-01

    Infrastructure disaster risk assessment seeks to estimate the probability of a given customer or area losing service during a disaster, sometimes in conjunction with estimating the duration of each outage. This is often done on the basis of past data about the effects of similar events impacting the same or similar systems. In many situations this past performance data from infrastructure systems is zero-inflated; it has more zeros than can be appropriately modeled with standard probability distributions. The data are also often non-linear and exhibit threshold effects due to the complexities of infrastructure system performance. Standard zero-inflated statistical models such as zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models do not adequately capture these complexities. In this paper we develop a novel method that is a hybrid classification tree/regression method for complex, zero-inflated data sets. We investigate its predictive accuracy based on a large number of simulated data sets and then demonstrate its practical usefulness with an application to hurricane power outage risk assessment for a large utility based on actual data from the utility. While formulated for infrastructure disaster risk assessment, this method is promising for data-driven analysis for other situations with zero-inflated, complex data exhibiting response thresholds.

  17. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  18. Assessment of Patients’ Perception of Telemedicine Services Using the Service User Technology Acceptability Questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Dario

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The purpose of this paper is to assess if similar telemedicine services integrated in the management of different chronic diseases are acceptable and well perceived by patients or if there are any negative perceptions. Theory and methods: Participants suffering from different chronic diseases were enrolled in Veneto Region and gathered into clusters. Each cluster received a similar telemedicine service equipped with different disease-specific measuring devices. Participants were patients with diabetes (n = 163, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (n = 180, congestive heart failure (n = 140 and Cardiac Implantable Electronic Devices (n = 1635. The Service User Technology Acceptability Questionnaire (SUTAQ was initially translated, culturally adapted and pretested and subsequently used to assess patients’ perception of telemedicine. Data were collected after 3 months and after 12 months from the beginning of the intervention. Data for patients with implantable devices was collected only at 12 months. Results: Results at 12 months for all clusters are similar and assessed a positive perception of telemedicine. The SUTAQ results for clusters 2 (diabetes, 5 (COPD and 7 (CHF after 3 months of intervention were confirmed after 12 months. Conclusions: Telemedicine was perceived as a viable addition to usual care. A positive perception for telemedicine services isn’t a transitory effect, but extends over the course of time.

  19. Assessment of Patients' Perception of Telemedicine Services Using the Service User Technology Acceptability Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dario, Claudio; Luisotto, Elena; Dal Pozzo, Enrico; Mancin, Silvia; Aletras, Vassilis; Newman, Stanton; Gubian, Lorenzo; Saccavini, Claudio

    2016-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to assess if similar telemedicine services integrated in the management of different chronic diseases are acceptable and well perceived by patients or if there are any negative perceptions. Participants suffering from different chronic diseases were enrolled in Veneto Region and gathered into clusters. Each cluster received a similar telemedicine service equipped with different disease-specific measuring devices. Participants were patients with diabetes (n = 163), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (n = 180), congestive heart failure (n = 140) and Cardiac Implantable Electronic Devices (n = 1635). The Service User Technology Acceptability Questionnaire (SUTAQ) was initially translated, culturally adapted and pretested and subsequently used to assess patients' perception of telemedicine. Data were collected after 3 months and after 12 months from the beginning of the intervention. Data for patients with implantable devices was collected only at 12 months. Results at 12 months for all clusters are similar and assessed a positive perception of telemedicine. The SUTAQ results for clusters 2 (diabetes), 5 (COPD) and 7 (CHF) after 3 months of intervention were confirmed after 12 months. Telemedicine was perceived as a viable addition to usual care. A positive perception for telemedicine services isn't a transitory effect, but extends over the course of time.

  20. Risk analysis of in-service pressure piping containing defects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Y.C.; Xie, Y.J.; Wang, X.H.; Luo, H.

    2004-01-01

    The reliability of pressure piping containing defects is important in engineering. The failure probability of pressure piping containing defects may be used as a guide to the most economic deployment of resources on maintenance, inspection and repair. This paper presents a probabilistic assessment methodology for in-service pressure piping containing defects, which is especially designed for programming. It is based on three assessment codes, BS 7910, R6 and SAPV-99, considering uncertainties in operating loadings, flaw sizes, material fracture toughness and flow stress. A general sampling computation method of stress intensity factor (SIF), in the form of the relationship between SIF and axial force and bending moment and torsion, is adopted. This relationship has been successfully used in developing software, Safety Assessment System of In-service Pressure Piping Containing Flaws (SAPP-2003), to assess planar and non-planar flaws. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the application of SAPP-2003 for calculating the failure probabilities of separate defects and for the assessed pressure piping