The effect of clustering on lot quality assurance sampling: a probabilistic model to calculate sample sizes for quality assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Hedt-Gauthier, Bethany L; Mitsunaga, Tisha; Hund, Lauren; Olives, Casey; Pagano, Marcello

2013-10-26

Traditional Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) designs assume observations are collected using simple random sampling. Alternatively, randomly sampling clusters of observations and then individuals within clusters reduces costs but decreases the precision of the classifications. In this paper, we develop a general framework for designing the cluster(C)-LQAS system and illustrate the method with the design of data quality assessments for the community health worker program in Rwanda. To determine sample size and decision rules for C-LQAS, we use the beta-binomial distribution to account for inflated risk of errors introduced by sampling clusters at the first stage. We present general theory and code for sample size calculations.The C-LQAS sample sizes provided in this paper constrain misclassification risks below user-specified limits. Multiple C-LQAS systems meet the specified risk requirements, but numerous considerations, including per-cluster versus per-individual sampling costs, help identify optimal systems for distinct applications. We show the utility of C-LQAS for data quality assessments, but the method generalizes to numerous applications. This paper provides the necessary technical detail and supplemental code to support the design of C-LQAS for specific programs.

Alcohol, Drugs, and Links to Sexual Risk Behaviors among a Sample of Virginia College Students

Science.gov (United States)

Enyeart Smith, Theresa M.; Wessel, Maria T.

2011-01-01

This project was significant in that it administered the National College Health Risk Behavior Survey (NCHRBS), a health risk assessment, to a sample of students at three public universities in Virginia. Virginia was never included in the original or subsequent nationwide assessments using this instrument. This health risk assessment is…

Can an Internet-based health risk assessment highlight problems of heart disease risk factor awareness? A cross-sectional analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dickerson, Justin B; McNeal, Catherine J; Tsai, Ginger; Rivera, Cathleen M; Smith, Matthew Lee; Ohsfeldt, Robert L; Ory, Marcia G

2014-04-18

Health risk assessments are becoming more popular as a tool to conveniently and effectively reach community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for serious chronic conditions such as coronary heart disease (CHD). The use of such instruments to improve adults' risk factor awareness and concordance with clinically measured risk factor values could be an opportunity to advance public health knowledge and build effective interventions. The objective of this study was to determine if an Internet-based health risk assessment can highlight important aspects of agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors for community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for CHD. Data from an Internet-based cardiovascular health risk assessment (Heart Aware) administered to community-dwelling adults at 127 clinical sites were analyzed. Respondents were recruited through individual hospital marketing campaigns, such as media advertising and print media, found throughout inpatient and outpatient facilities. CHD risk factors from the Framingham Heart Study were examined. Weighted kappa statistics were calculated to measure interrater agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors. Weighted kappa statistics were then calculated for each sample by strata of overall 10-year CHD risk. Three samples were drawn based on strategies for treating missing data: a listwise deleted sample, a pairwise deleted sample, and a multiple imputation (MI) sample. The MI sample (n=16,879) was most appropriate for addressing missing data. No CHD risk factor had better than marginal interrater agreement (κ>.60). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) exhibited suboptimal interrater agreement that deteriorated (eg, κInternet-based health risk assessments such as Heart Aware may contribute to public health surveillance, but they must address selection bias of Internet-based recruitment methods.

External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Powell, Troy C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-08-01

Two risk assessment algorithms and philosophies have been augmented and combined to form a new algorit hm, the External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA), that allows for effective and statistically sound analysis of external threat sources in relation to individual attack methods . In addition to the attack method use probability and the attack method employment consequence, t he concept of defining threat sources is added to the risk assessment process. Sample data is tabulated and depicted in radar plots and bar graphs for algorithm demonstration purposes. The largest success of ExTRAA is its ability to visualize the kind of r isk posed in a given situation using the radar plot method.

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Ecological risk assessment and carcinogen health risk assessment of arsenic in soils from part area of the Daye City, China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, F.; Wang, T.; Xiao, M. S.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Z. Y.

2018-01-01

Soils in four sampling sites from part area of the Daye City were collected. Concentrations of arsenic (As) in soils in sampling sites were detected by Atomic Fluorescence Spectrometry, ecological risk was calculated by potential ecological risk index (RI) and human health risk was measured by human health risk assessment model established by USEPA. The results showed that, the total content of As in soils in Daye was decreased in the order of S4 (66.58 mg/kg)>S2 (44.73 mg/kg)>S3 (34.86 mg/kg) >S1 (21.84 mg/kg), concentrations in all sampling sites were higher than background values of Hubei Province. The potential risk and human health risk were decreased in the order of S4>S2>S3>S1 and S4>S3>S2>S1, respectively. Specially, S1, S2 and S3 were at low potential ecological risk while S4 was at moderate ecological risk. But there was no carcinogenic risk for human exposure to As in soil in Daye.

Sensors vs. experts - a performance comparison of sensor-based fall risk assessment vs. conventional assessment in a sample of geriatric patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Marschollek, Michael; Rehwald, Anja; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Gietzelt, Matthias; Nemitz, Gerhard; zu Schwabedissen, Hubertus Meyer; Schulze, Mareike

2011-06-28

Fall events contribute significantly to mortality, morbidity and costs in our ageing population. In order to identify persons at risk and to target preventive measures, many scores and assessment tools have been developed. These often require expertise and are costly to implement. Recent research investigates the use of wearable inertial sensors to provide objective data on motion features which can be used to assess individual fall risk automatically. So far it is unknown how well this new method performs in comparison with conventional fall risk assessment tools. The aim of our research is to compare the predictive performance of our new sensor-based method with conventional and established methods, based on prospective data. In a first study phase, 119 inpatients of a geriatric clinic took part in motion measurements using a wireless triaxial accelerometer during a Timed Up&Go (TUG) test and a 20 m walk. Furthermore, the St. Thomas Risk Assessment Tool in Falling Elderly Inpatients (STRATIFY) was performed, and the multidisciplinary geriatric care team estimated the patients' fall risk. In a second follow-up phase of the study, 46 of the participants were interviewed after one year, including a fall and activity assessment. The predictive performances of the TUG, the STRATIFY and team scores are compared. Furthermore, two automatically induced logistic regression models based on conventional clinical and assessment data (CONV) as well as sensor data (SENSOR) are matched. Among the risk assessment scores, the geriatric team score (sensitivity 56%, specificity 80%) outperforms STRATIFY and TUG. The induced logistic regression models CONV and SENSOR achieve similar performance values (sensitivity 68%/58%, specificity 74%/78%, AUC 0.74/0.72, +LR 2.64/2.61). Both models are able to identify more persons at risk than the simple scores. Sensor-based objective measurements of motion parameters in geriatric patients can be used to assess individual fall risk, and our

Characterizing the risk assessment of heavy metals and sampling uncertainty analysis in paddy field by geostatistics and GIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xingmei; Wu Jianjun; Xu Jianming

2006-01-01

For many practical problems in environmental management, information about soil heavy metals, relative to threshold values that may be of practical importance is needed at unsampled sites. The Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou (HJH) Plain has always been one of the most important rice production areas in Zhejiang province, China, and the soil heavy metal concentration is directly related to the crop quality and ultimately the health of people. Four hundred and fifty soil samples were selected in topsoil in HJH Plain to characterize the spatial variability of Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr and Cd. Ordinary kriging and lognormal kriging were carried out to map the spatial patterns of heavy metals and disjunctive kriging was used to quantify the probability of heavy metal concentrations higher than their guide value. Cokriging method was used to minimize the sampling density for Cu, Zn and Cr. The results of this study could give insight into risk assessment of environmental pollution and decision-making for agriculture. - Probability maps gave insight into risk assesment of environmental metals in a rice paddy field

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Donnelly, K.C.; Safe, S.H. [Texas A& M Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Randerath, K.; Randerath, E. [College Station and Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX (United States)

1994-12-31

To compare the standard chemical-based risk assessment with in vitro genotoxicity assays, two complex environmental mixtures from a wood preserving site were analyzed in the Salmonella/microsome and E. coli prophage induction assays. Using GC/MS, sample 003 was found to contain relatively low levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PNAs) and elevated levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), while sample 005 had higher levels of PNAs and relatively low levels of PCDDs. The complex mixtures were sequentially extracted with methylene chloride and methanol for analysis in Salmonella, or extracted with 1:1 hexane: acetone mixture for analysis in the prophage induction assay. At a dose of 1.0 mg/plate in Salmonella strain TA98 with metabolic activation, the methanol extract of sample 003 induced 197 net revertants, while sample 005 induced 436 net revertants. In the prophage induction assay, with activation, the hexane:acetone extract of sample 003 induced a fold increase that was slightly lower than that observed with sample 005. The estimated incremental carcinogenic risk for dermal adsorption and ingestion was 1.5E-3 for sample 003, while for sample 005 the estimated risk was 1.5E-2. Thus, the sample which induced the maximum response in both bioassays also had the highest estimated cancer risk. However, the frequency of PNA-DNA adducts in both skin and liver tissues was appreciably higher with sample 005 than with sample 003.

Personality factors and suicide risk in a representative sample of the German general population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victor Blüml

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Previous research has shown an association between certain personality characteristics and suicidality. Methodological differences including small sample sizes and missing adjustment for possible confounding factors could explain the varying results. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the Big Five personality dimensions on suicidality in a representative population based sample of adults. METHOD: Interviews were conducted in a representative German population-based sample (n=2555 in 2011. Personality characteristics were assessed using the Big Five Inventory-10 (BFI-10 and suicide risk was assessed with the Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R. Multivariate logistic regression models were calculated adjusting for depression, anxiety, and various sociodemographic variables. RESULTS: Neuroticism and openness were significantly associated with suicide risk, while extraversion and conscientiousness were found to be protective. Significant sex differences were observed. For males, extraversion and conscientiousness were protective factors. Neuroticism and openness were found to be associated with suicide risk only in females. These associations remained significant after adjusting for covariates. CONCLUSION: The results highlight the role of personality dimensions as risk factors for suicide-related behaviors. Different personality dimensions are significantly associated with suicide-related behaviors even when adjusting for other known risk factors of suicidality.

A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (II) Application

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

2011-01-01

This paper presents the procedures and results of intensity- and time-based seismic risk assessments of a sample nuclear power plant (NPP) to demonstrate the risk-assessment methodology proposed in its companion paper. The intensity-based assessments include three sets of sensitivity studies to identify the impact of the following factors on the seismic vulnerability of the sample NPP, namely: (1) the description of fragility curves for primary and secondary components of NPPs, (2) the number of simulations of NPP response required for risk assessment, and (3) the correlation in responses between NPP components. The time-based assessment is performed as a series of intensity-based assessments. The studies illustrate the utility of the response-based fragility curves and the inclusion of the correlation in the responses of NPP components directly in the risk computation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Methodology for the assessment of human health risks associated ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Studies have shown that the aquatic environment can be polluted by contaminates that are accumulated by freshwater fish and this may pose a health risk to the ... bioaccumulation potential and health risks of analytes, sound sampling design, risk assessment procedures and performing monitoring at different scales and ...

Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 7. Absolute Risk Reduction and ARR-like Expressions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrei ACHIMAŞ CADARIU

2004-08-01

Full Text Available Assessments of a controlled clinical trial suppose to interpret some key parameters as the controlled event rate, experimental event date, relative risk, absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, number needed to treat when the effect of the treatment are dichotomous variables. Defined as the difference in the event rate between treatment and control groups, the absolute risk reduction is the parameter that allowed computing the number needed to treat. The absolute risk reduction is compute when the experimental treatment reduces the risk for an undesirable outcome/event. In medical literature when the absolute risk reduction is report with its confidence intervals, the method used is the asymptotic one, even if it is well know that may be inadequate. The aim of this paper is to introduce and assess nine methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction – like function.Computer implementations of the methods use the PHP language. Methods comparison uses the experimental errors, the standard deviations, and the deviation relative to the imposed significance level for specified sample sizes. Six methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction-like functions were assessed using random binomial variables and random sample sizes.The experiments shows that the ADAC, and ADAC1 methods obtains the best overall performance of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction.

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Bacteriological safety assessment, hygienic habits and cross-contamination risks in a Nigerian urban sample of household kitchen environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ejechi, Bernard O; Ochei, Ono P

2017-06-01

Urban household kitchen environment was assessed for safety by determining their levels of indicator bacteria, hygienic habits and risk of cross-contamination. Household kitchens (60) were selected in Warri Town, Nigeria, by the multi-stage sampling technique. Contact surfaces, water and indoor kitchen air were analysed for aerobic plate counts, total and faecal coliforms using Nutrient and McConkey media by swab/rinse method, membrane filtration and sedimentation methods, respectively. Hygienic habits and risk of cross-contamination were assessed with structured questionnaire which included socio-demographic variables. On the basis of median counts, the prevalence of high counts (log cfu/cm 2 /m 3 /100 mL) of aerobic plate counts (>3.0), total coliforms (>1.0) and faecal coliforms (>0) on contact surfaces and air was high (58.0-92.0%), but low in water (30.0-40.0%). Pots, plates and cutleries were the contact surfaces with low counts. Prevalence of poor hygienic habits and high risk of cross-contamination was 38.6 and 67.5%, respectively. Education, occupation and kitchen type were associated with cross-contamination risk (P = 0.002-0.022), while only education was associated with hygienic habits (P = 0.03). Cross-contamination risk was related (P = 0.01-0.05) to aerobic plate counts (OR 2.30; CL 1.30-3.17), total coliforms (OR 5.63; CL 2.76-8.25) and faecal coliforms (OR 4.24; CL 2.87-6.24), while hygienic habit was not. It can be concluded that urban household kitchens in the Nigerian setting are vulnerable to pathogens likely to cause food-borne infections.

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Assessment and management of suicide risk in primary care.

Science.gov (United States)

Saini, Pooja; While, David; Chantler, Khatidja; Windfuhr, Kirsten; Kapur, Navneet

2014-01-01

Risk assessment and management of suicidal patients is emphasized as a key component of care in specialist mental health services, but these issues are relatively unexplored in primary care services. To examine risk assessment and management in primary and secondary care in a clinical sample of individuals who were in contact with mental health services and died by suicide. Data collection from clinical proformas, case records, and semistructured face-to-face interviews with general practitioners. Primary and secondary care data were available for 198 of the 336 cases (59%). The overall agreement in the rating of risk between services was poor (overall κ = .127, p = .10). Depression, care setting (after discharge), suicidal ideation at last contact, and a history of self-harm were associated with a rating of higher risk. Suicide prevention policies were available in 25% of primary care practices, and 33% of staff received training in suicide risk assessments. Risk is difficult to predict, but the variation in risk assessment between professional groups may reflect poor communication. Further research is required to understand this. There appears to be a relative lack of suicide risk assessment training in primary care.

Determination of toxic elements (mercury, cadmium, lead, tin and arsenic) in fish and shellfish samples. Risk assessment for the consumers.

Science.gov (United States)

Olmedo, P; Pla, A; Hernández, A F; Barbier, F; Ayouni, L; Gil, F

2013-09-01

Although fish intake has potential health benefits, the presence of metal contamination in seafood has raised public health concerns. In this study, levels of mercury, cadmium, lead, tin and arsenic have been determined in fresh, canned and frozen fish and shellfish products and compared with the maximum levels currently in force. In a further step, potential human health risks for the consumers were assessed. A total of 485 samples of the 43 most frequently consumed fish and shellfish species in Andalusia (Southern Spain) were analyzed for their toxic elements content. High mercury concentrations were found in some predatory species (blue shark, cat shark, swordfish and tuna), although they were below the regulatory maximum levels. In the case of cadmium, bivalve mollusks such as canned clams and mussels presented higher concentrations than fish, but almost none of the samples analyzed exceeded the maximum levels. Lead concentrations were almost negligible with the exception of frozen common sole, which showed median levels above the legal limit. Tin levels in canned products were far below the maximum regulatory limit, indicating that no significant tin was transferred from the can. Arsenic concentrations were higher in crustaceans such as fresh and frozen shrimps. The risk assessment performed indicated that fish and shellfish products were safe for the average consumer, although a potential risk cannot be dismissed for regular or excessive consumers of particular fish species, such as tuna, swordfish, blue shark and cat shark (for mercury) and common sole (for lead). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Probabilistic risk assessment of insecticide concentrations in agricultural surface waters: a critical appraisal.

Science.gov (United States)

Stehle, Sebastian; Knäbel, Anja; Schulz, Ralf

2013-08-01

Due to the specific modes of action and application patterns of agricultural insecticides, the insecticide exposure of agricultural surface waters is characterized by infrequent and short-term insecticide concentration peaks of high ecotoxicological relevance with implications for both monitoring and risk assessment. Here, we apply several fixed-interval strategies and an event-based sampling strategy to two generalized and two realistic insecticide exposure patterns for typical agricultural streams derived from FOCUS exposure modeling using Monte Carlo simulations. Sampling based on regular intervals was found to be inadequate for the detection of transient insecticide concentrations, whereas event-triggered sampling successfully detected all exposure incidences at substantially lower analytical costs. Our study proves that probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) concepts in their present forms are not appropriate for a thorough evaluation of insecticide exposure. Despite claims that the PRA approach uses all available data to assess exposure and enhances risk assessment realism, we demonstrate that this concept is severely biased by the amount of insecticide concentrations below detection limits and therefore by the sampling designs. Moreover, actual insecticide exposure is of almost no relevance for PRA threshold level exceedance frequencies and consequential risk assessment outcomes. Therefore, we propose a concept that features a field-relevant ecological risk analysis of agricultural insecticide surface water exposure. Our study quantifies for the first time the environmental and economic consequences of inappropriate monitoring and risk assessment concepts used for the evaluation of short-term peak surface water pollutants such as insecticides.

Sampling and Analysis for Assessment of Body Burdens

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harley, J.H.

1964-01-01

A review of sampling criteria and techniques and of sample processing methods for indirect assessment of body burdens is presented. The text is limited to the more recent developments in the field of bioassay and to the nuclides which cannot be readily determined in the body directly. A selected bibliography is included. The planning of a bioassay programme should emphasize the detection of high or unusual exposures and the concentrated study of these cases when detected. This procedure gives the maximum amount of data for the dosimetry of individuals at risk and also adds to our scientific background for an understanding of internal emitters. Only a minimum of effort should be spent on sampling individuals having had negligible exposure. The chemical separation procedures required for bioassay also fall into two categories. The first is the rapid method, possibly of low accuracy, used for detection. The second is the more accurate method required for study of the individual after detection of the exposure. Excretion, whether exponential or a power function, drops off rapidly. It is necessary to locate the exposure in time before any evaluation can be made, even before deciding if the exposure is significant. One approach is frequent sampling and analysis by a quick screening technique. More commonly, samples are collected at longer intervals and an arbitrary level of re-sampling is set to assist in the detection of real exposures. It is probable that too much bioassay effort has gone into measurements on individuals at low risk and not enough on those at higher risk. The development of bioassay procedures for overcoming this problem has begun, and this paper emphasizes this facet of sampling and sample processing. (author) [fr

Indoor air quality investigation and health risk assessment at correctional institutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ofungwu, Joseph

2005-04-01

A comprehensive indoor air-quality (IAQ) investigation was conducted at a state correctional facility in New Jersey, USA with a lengthy history of IAQ problems. The IAQ investigation comprised preliminary indoor air screening using direct readout instrumentation, indoor air/surface wipe sampling and laboratory analysis, as well as a heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system evaluation, and a building envelope survey. In addition to air sampling, a human health risk assessment was performed to evaluate the potential for exposure to site-related air contaminants with respect to the inmate and worker populations. The risk assessment results for the prison facility indicated the potential for significant health risks for the inmate population, possibly reflecting the effects of their confinement and extended exposure to indoor air contaminants, as compared to the prison guard and worker population. Based on the results of the risk assessment, several mitigation measures are recommended to minimize prison population health risks and improve indoor air quality at prison facilities.

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Assessment of fracture risk: value of random population-based samples--the Geelong Osteoporosis Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, M J; Pasco, J A; Seeman, E; Nicholson, G C; Sanders, K M; Kotowicz, M A

2001-01-01

Fracture risk is determined by bone mineral density (BMD). The T-score, a measure of fracture risk, is the position of an individual's BMD in relation to a reference range. The aim of this study was to determine the magnitude of change in the T-score when different sampling techniques were used to produce the reference range. Reference ranges were derived from three samples, drawn from the same region: (1) an age-stratified population-based random sample, (2) unselected volunteers, and (3) a selected healthy subset of the population-based sample with no diseases or drugs known to affect bone. T-scores were calculated using the three reference ranges for a cohort of women who had sustained a fracture and as a group had a low mean BMD (ages 35-72 yr; n = 484). For most comparisons, the T-scores for the fracture cohort were more negative using the population reference range. The difference in T-scores reached 1.0 SD. The proportion of the fracture cohort classified as having osteoporosis at the spine was 26, 14, and 23% when the population, volunteer, and healthy reference ranges were applied, respectively. The use of inappropriate reference ranges results in substantial changes to T-scores and may lead to inappropriate management.

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

Advancing the Use of Passive Sampling in Risk Assessment and Management of Sediments Contaminated with Hydrophobic Organic Chemicals: Results of an International Ex Situ Passive Sampling Interlaboratory Comparison.

Science.gov (United States)

Jonker, Michiel T O; van der Heijden, Stephan A; Adelman, Dave; Apell, Jennifer N; Burgess, Robert M; Choi, Yongju; Fernandez, Loretta A; Flavetta, Geanna M; Ghosh, Upal; Gschwend, Philip M; Hale, Sarah E; Jalalizadeh, Mehregan; Khairy, Mohammed; Lampi, Mark A; Lao, Wenjian; Lohmann, Rainer; Lydy, Michael J; Maruya, Keith A; Nutile, Samuel A; Oen, Amy M P; Rakowska, Magdalena I; Reible, Danny; Rusina, Tatsiana P; Smedes, Foppe; Wu, Yanwen

2018-03-20

This work presents the results of an international interlaboratory comparison on ex situ passive sampling in sediments. The main objectives were to map the state of the science in passively sampling sediments, identify sources of variability, provide recommendations and practical guidance for standardized passive sampling, and advance the use of passive sampling in regulatory decision making by increasing confidence in the use of the technique. The study was performed by a consortium of 11 laboratories and included experiments with 14 passive sampling formats on 3 sediments for 25 target chemicals (PAHs and PCBs). The resulting overall interlaboratory variability was large (a factor of ∼10), but standardization of methods halved this variability. The remaining variability was primarily due to factors not related to passive sampling itself, i.e., sediment heterogeneity and analytical chemistry. Excluding the latter source of variability, by performing all analyses in one laboratory, showed that passive sampling results can have a high precision and a very low intermethod variability (sampling, irrespective of the specific method used, is fit for implementation in risk assessment and management of contaminated sediments, provided that method setup and performance, as well as chemical analyses are quality-controlled.

Equilibrium sampling for a thermodynamic assessment of contaminated sediments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mayer, Philipp; Nørgaard Schmidt, Stine; Mäenpää, Kimmo

Hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) reaching the aquatic environment are largely stored in sediments. The risk of contaminated sediments is challenging to assess since traditional exhaustive extraction methods yield total HOC concentrations, whereas freely dissolved concentrations (Cfree......) govern diffusive uptake and partitioning. Equilibrium sampling of sediment was introduced 15 years ago to measure Cfree, and it has since developed into a straightforward, precise and sensitive approach for determining Cfree and other exposure parameters that allow for thermodynamic assessment...... of polluted sediments. Glass jars with µm-thin silicone coatings on the inner walls can be used for ex situ equilibration while a device housing several silicone-coated fibers can be used for in situ equilibration. In both cases, parallel sampling with varying silicone thicknesses can be applied to confirm...

Tooele Army Depot Revised Final Site-Wide Ecological Risk Assessment. Volume IV

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

1998-01-01

Partial Contents: Soil samples, Biota Samples, Risk Assessment, Historic, Hazard, Herbicides, Metals, Pesticides, Dioxins, Furans, Invertebrate Data, Toxicity, Detection, Exposure, Bioaccumulation Models...

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

2017-03-01

The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

Probabilistic disaggregation of a spatial portfolio of exposure for natural hazard risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

2018-01-01

In natural hazard risk assessment situations are encountered where information on the portfolio of exposure is only available in a spatially aggregated form, hindering a precise risk assessment. Recourse might be found in the spatial disaggregation of the portfolio of exposure to the resolution...... of a portfolio of buildings in two communes in Switzerland and the results are compared to sample observations. The relevance of probabilistic disaggregation uncertainty in natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated with the example of a simple flood risk assessment....

Improving risk assessments for manufactured gas plant soils by measuring PAH availability.

Science.gov (United States)

Stroo, Hans F; Nakles, David V; Kreitinger, Joseph P; Loehr, Raymond C; Hawthorne, Steven B; Luthy, Richard G; Holman, Hoi-Ying; LaPierre, Adrienne

2005-07-01

Remediation of soils at oil-gas manufactured gas plant (MGP) sites is driven primarily by the human health risks posed by the carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), particularly benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), that are associated with lampblack residues. Although PAHs on lampblack are tightly sorbed, risk assessments do not account for this reduced availability. A multi-investigator study of 7 oil-gas MGP site soil samples demonstrated that the dermal and ingestion absorption factors are far lower than current default assumptions used in risk assessments. Using these sample-specific absorption factors in standard risk assessment equations increased risk-based cleanup levels by a factor of 72 on average (with a range from 23 to 142 times the default level). The rapidly released fraction of the BaP in each sample, as measured by supercritical fluid extraction, was closely correlated (r2 = 0.96) to these calculated cleanup levels. The weight of evidence developed during this research indicates that the risks posed by PAHs on lampblack are far less than assumed when using default absorption factors and that a tiered evaluation protocol employing chemical analyses, chemical release data, and in vitro bioassays can be used to establish more realistic site-specific criteria.

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

Chemical Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

Field sampling of soil pore water to evaluate trace element mobility and associated environmental risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moreno-Jimenez, Eduardo, E-mail: eduardo.moreno@uam.es [Departamento de Quimica Agricola, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, 28049 Madrid (Spain); Beesley, Luke [James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH (United Kingdom); Lepp, Nicholas W. [35, Victoria Road, Formby, Liverpool L37 7DH (United Kingdom); Dickinson, Nicholas M. [Department of Ecology, Lincoln University, Lincoln 7647, PO Box 84 (New Zealand); Hartley, William [School of Computing, Science and Engineering, University of Salford, Cockcroft Building, Salford, M5 4WT (United Kingdom); Clemente, Rafael [Dep. of Soil and Water Conservation and Organic Waste Management, CEBAS-CSIC, Campus Universitario de Espinardo, PO Box 164, 30100 Espinardo, Murcia (Spain)

2011-10-15

Monitoring soil pollution is a key aspect in sustainable management of contaminated land but there is often debate over what should be monitored to assess ecological risk. Soil pore water, containing the most labile pollutant fraction in soils, can be easily collected in situ offering a routine way to monitor this risk. We present a compilation of data on concentration of trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn) in soil pore water collected in field conditions from a range of polluted and non-polluted soils in Spain and the UK during single and repeated monitoring, and propose a simple eco-toxicity test using this media. Sufficient pore water could be extracted for analysis both under semi-arid and temperate conditions, and eco-toxicity comparisons could be effectively made between polluted and non-polluted soils. We propose that in-situ pore water extraction could enhance the realism of risk assessment at some contaminated sites. - Highlights: > In situ pore water sampling successfully evaluates trace elements mobility in soils. > Field sampling proved robust for different soils, sites and climatic regimes. > Measurements may be directly related to ecotoxicological assays. > Both short and long-term monitoring of polluted lands may be achieved. > This method complements other widely used assays for environmental risk assessment. - In situ pore water sampling from a wide variety of soils proves to be a beneficial application to monitor the stability of pollutants in soils and subsequent risk through mobility.

Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

2015-12-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

Aquatic risk assessment of the new rice herbicide profoxydim

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanchez, Paloma [Laboratory for Ecotoxicology, Department of the Environment, INIA, Crta De La Coruna Km 7, 28040 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: arguello@inia.es; Kubitza, Johanna [BASF-AG, Agricultural Center Limburgerhof, P.O. Box 120, D-67114 Limburgerhof (Germany); Peter Dohmen, G. [BASF-AG, Agricultural Center Limburgerhof, P.O. Box 120, D-67114 Limburgerhof (Germany); Tarazona, Jose V. [Laboratory for Ecotoxicology, Department of the Environment, INIA, Crta De La Coruna Km 7, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

2006-07-15

A tiered protocol for assessing ecological risks has been applied to the rice pesticide profoxydim. The initial assessment (Tier I) was based on toxicity exposure ratio (TER) calculations based on laboratory data using a worst-case rice scenario. The first refinement (Tier II) was based on direct toxicity assessment (DTA) of water samples collected during a field-mesocosm study. Finally, a higher-tier assessment on the in situ assessment of paddy community responses (field-mesocosm-Tier III) was performed. A successive application of three pesticides, the herbicides azimsulfuron, propanil and the insecticide malathion, was used as reference controls. The refined assessments indicated a lower risk than that predicted from TER estimations. DTA-based Tier II showed toxicity effects only for concentrations above the recommended dose of profoxydim. Effects for reference controls were observed in DTA which were not expected from Tier I. The field-mesocosm study confirmed these effects but also showed that they were transient and of low relevance. - Risk refinement assessment of rice pesticides starting with DTA and moving to community studies is a cost-effective approach, only if required.

Aquatic risk assessment of the new rice herbicide profoxydim

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez, Paloma; Kubitza, Johanna; Peter Dohmen, G.; Tarazona, Jose V.

2006-01-01

A tiered protocol for assessing ecological risks has been applied to the rice pesticide profoxydim. The initial assessment (Tier I) was based on toxicity exposure ratio (TER) calculations based on laboratory data using a worst-case rice scenario. The first refinement (Tier II) was based on direct toxicity assessment (DTA) of water samples collected during a field-mesocosm study. Finally, a higher-tier assessment on the in situ assessment of paddy community responses (field-mesocosm-Tier III) was performed. A successive application of three pesticides, the herbicides azimsulfuron, propanil and the insecticide malathion, was used as reference controls. The refined assessments indicated a lower risk than that predicted from TER estimations. DTA-based Tier II showed toxicity effects only for concentrations above the recommended dose of profoxydim. Effects for reference controls were observed in DTA which were not expected from Tier I. The field-mesocosm study confirmed these effects but also showed that they were transient and of low relevance. - Risk refinement assessment of rice pesticides starting with DTA and moving to community studies is a cost-effective approach, only if required

Occurrence and ecological risk assessment of emerging organic chemicals in urban rivers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peng, Fengjiao; Pan, Chang Gui; Zhang, Min

2017-01-01

at the suburb area. A screening-level risk assessment showed that 4-nonylphenol and triclosan (TCS) pose potential risks to aquatic organisms in most sampling sites. For individual taxa, 4-NP may pose risks to various groups of aquatic organisms, while TCS only might pose high risks to algae....

Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2009-04-01

The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi [Nuclear Science Programme, School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan (Malaysia)

2013-11-27

Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Yellow fever risk assessment in the Central African Republic.

Science.gov (United States)

Staples, J Erin; Diallo, Mawlouth; Janusz, Kristen B; Manengu, Casimir; Lewis, Rosamund F; Perea, William; Yactayo, Sergio; Sall, Amadou A

2014-10-01

Starting in 2008, the Central African Republic (CAR) experienced an unprecedented number of reported yellow fever (YF) cases. A risk assessment of YF virus (YFV) activity was conducted to estimate potential disease risk and vaccine needs. A multistage cluster sampling design was used to sample humans, non-human primates, and mosquitoes in distinct ecologic zones. Humans and non-human primates were tested for YFV-specific antibodies; mosquitoes were tested for YFV RNA. Overall, 13.3% (125/938) of humans were found to have naturally-acquired YFV antibodies. Antibody levels were higher in zones in the southern and south central regions of CAR. All sampled non-human primates (n=56) were known YFV reservoirs; one tested positive for YFV antibodies. Several known YF vectors were identified including Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, Ae. luteocephalus, and Ae. simpsoni. Several more urban locations were found to have elevated Breateau and Container indices for Ae. aegypti. A country-wide assessment of YF risk found YFV to be endemic in CAR. The potential for future YF cases and outbreaks, however, varied by ecologic zone. Improved vaccination coverage through mass campaign and childhood immunization was recommended to mitigate the YF risk. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

[Health Risk Assessment of Drinking Water Quality in Tianjin Based on GIS].

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Gang; Zeng, Qiang; Zhao, Liang; Zhang, Yue; Feng, Bao-jia; Wang, Rui; Zhang, Lei; Wang, Yang; Hou, Chang-chun

2015-12-01

This study intends to assess the potential health hazards of drinking water quality and explore the application of geographic information system( GIS) in drinking water safety in Tianjin. Eight hundred and fifty water samples from 401 sampling points in Tianjin were measured according to the national drinking water standards. The risk assessment was conducted using the environmental health risk assessment model recommended by US EAP, and GIS was combined to explore the information visualization and risk factors simultaneously. The results showed that the health risks of carcinogens, non-carcinogens were 3.83 x 10⁻⁵, 5.62 x 10⁻⁹ and 3.83 x 10⁻⁵ for total health risk respectively. The rank of health risk was carcinogen > non-carcinogen. The rank of carcinogens health risk was urban > new area > rural area, chromium (VI) > cadmium > arsenic > trichlormethane > carbon tetrachloride. The rank of non-carcinogens health risk was rural area > new area > urban, fluoride > cyanide > lead > nitrate. The total health risk level of drinking water in Tianjin was lower than that of ICRP recommended level (5.0 x 10⁻⁵), while was between US EPA recommended level (1.0 x 10⁻⁴-1.0 x 10⁻⁶). It was at an acceptable level and would not cause obvious health hazards. The main health risks of drinking water came from carcinogens. More attentions should be paid to chromium (VI) for carcinogens and fluoride for non-carcinogens. GIS can accomplish information visualization of drinking water risk assessment and further explore of risk factors.

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Ecological risk assessment for the terrestrial ecosystem under chronic radioactive pollution - Ecological risk assessment for the biota on regional radioactive waste storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavrentyeva, G.V.; Synzynys, B.I.; Shoshina, R.R.; Mirzeabasov, O.A. [Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering, branch of the National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Department of Ecology, Studgorodok,1, 249040 Obninsk, Kaluga region (Russian Federation)

2014-07-01

Now the methods of ecological regulation of a radiation factor from risk assessment are developed poorly. The paper attempts to assess and forecast the terrestrial ecosystem conditions under chronic ionizing radiation by calculating the critical loads. The paper is aimed at developing a methodology to assess the ecological risk for a terrestrial ecosystem under chronic radioactive pollution in a biotope of a regional radioactive waste storage. Objects and Methods: Biotope monitoring of a radioactive waste storage makes clear that the radioecological situation in this territory is stipulated by technogenic {sup 90}Sr found in soil, ground water and biota. Terrestrial mollusks of a shrubby Snail type (Bradybaena fruticum) were chosen as reference species due to their activity to accumulate {sup 90}Sr in shells and the number of colony-forming soil units (CFU) as reference indices. The number of CFU was determined by inoculation of solid medium. Soil and mollusk samples have been collected at most representative sites identified in the previous studies. To assess {sup 90}Sr content in the samples collected, radiochemical separation was used with further radionuclide activity measurements by a 'BETA-01C' scintillation beta-ray spectrometer according to a standard procedure of {sup 90}Sr content assessment from beta-radiation of its daughter radionuclide {sup 90}Y. Ecological risk was calculated from analyzed critical loads using a 'dose-effect' dependence. Statistical data processing was realized with Excell 2007 and R software programs [R Development Core Team, 2010]. The software R was also used for GIS creation. Results and Discussion: A methodology of ecological risk assessment for the terrestrial ecosystem under chronic radioactive pollution of a biotope near a regional radioactive waste storage has been developed in terms of the critical environmental loads analyzed. It consists of five stages: determination of effect indicators and assessment

Application of passive sampling in assessing the occurrence and risk of antibiotics and endocrine disrupting chemicals in the Yangtze Estuary, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, X; Zhou, J L; Zhao, H; Hou, L; Yang, Y

2014-09-01

Polar organic chemical integrative sampler (POCIS) was used in assessing the occurrence and risk of 12 widely used antibiotics and 5 most potent endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in the Yangtze Estuary, China. During laboratory validation, the kinetics of pollutant uptake by POCIS were linear, and the sampling rates of most compounds were raised by flow rate and salinity, reaching the highest values at salinity 14‰. The sampling rates varied with the target compounds with the EDCs showing the highest values (overall average=0.123Ld(-1)), followed by chloramphenicols (0.100Ld(-1)), macrolides (0.089Ld(-1)), and finally sulfonamides (0.056Ld(-1)). Validation in the Yangtze Estuary in 2013 showed that the field sampling rates were significantly greater for all compounds except bisphenol A, in comparison to laboratory results, and high-frequency spot sampling is critical for fully validating the passive sampler. The field studies show that antibiotics were widely detected in the Yangtze Estuary, with concentrations varying from below quantification to 1613ngL(-1), suggesting their widespread use and persistence in estuarine waters. The dominating pollutants in July were sulfonamides with a total concentration of 258ngL(-1) and in October were macrolides with a total concentration of 350ngL(-1). The calculation of risk quotient suggested that sulfapyridine, sulfaquinoxaline and erythromycin-H2O may have caused medium damage to sensitive organisms such as fish. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Harmful Chemicals in Soil and Risk Assessment of an Abandoned Open Dumpsite in Eastern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Huang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The concentrations of pollutants in soil samples collected in and around a dumpsite in Heze, Shandong, China, were investigated, and the potential ecological and health risks of these pollutants were assessed. Seventeen soil samples from five different locations were analysed for pollution characteristics, and the target pollutants included inorganic pollutants and heavy metals as well as volatile organic compounds/semivolatile organic compounds (VOCs/SVOCs. Results showed that the mean concentration level of each pollutant from the interior area was relatively higher than that from the boundary area of the dumpsite. Inorganic pollutants and heavy metals were detected in all of the soil samples. According to potential ecological risk assessment with environmental background values of Shandong as screening values, heavy metals in majority of the samples pose low ecological risk to the ecosystem except Hg. Hg poses a considerable or very high risk because of its high levels of accumulation. In consideration of future land use pattern, human health risks derived from environmental exposure to heavy metals were assessed. Carcinogenic risk and noncarcinogenic hazards for adults are acceptable, while noncarcinogenic hazards for children exceed the safety threshold. The health risks are primarily attributed to oral exposure to As and Cr.

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

Fall Risk Assessment Through Automatic Combination of Clinical Fall Risk Factors and Body-Worn Sensor Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Greene, Barry R; Redmond, Stephen J; Caulfield, Brian

2017-05-01

Falls are the leading global cause of accidental death and disability in older adults and are the most common cause of injury and hospitalization. Accurate, early identification of patients at risk of falling, could lead to timely intervention and a reduction in the incidence of fall-related injury and associated costs. We report a statistical method for fall risk assessment using standard clinical fall risk factors (N = 748). We also report a means of improving this method by automatically combining it, with a fall risk assessment algorithm based on inertial sensor data and the timed-up-and-go test. Furthermore, we provide validation data on the sensor-based fall risk assessment method using a statistically independent dataset. Results obtained using cross-validation on a sample of 292 community dwelling older adults suggest that a combined clinical and sensor-based approach yields a classification accuracy of 76.0%, compared to either 73.6% for sensor-based assessment alone, or 68.8% for clinical risk factors alone. Increasing the cohort size by adding an additional 130 subjects from a separate recruitment wave (N = 422), and applying the same model building and validation method, resulted in a decrease in classification performance (68.5% for combined classifier, 66.8% for sensor data alone, and 58.5% for clinical data alone). This suggests that heterogeneity between cohorts may be a major challenge when attempting to develop fall risk assessment algorithms which generalize well. Independent validation of the sensor-based fall risk assessment algorithm on an independent cohort of 22 community dwelling older adults yielded a classification accuracy of 72.7%. Results suggest that the present method compares well to previously reported sensor-based fall risk assessment methods in assessing falls risk. Implementation of objective fall risk assessment methods on a large scale has the potential to improve quality of care and lead to a reduction in associated hospital

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Assessment of high-risk human papillomavirus infections using clinician- and self-collected cervical sampling methods in rural women from far western Nepal.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Derek C Johnson

Full Text Available Nepal has one of the highest cervical cancer rates in South Asia. Only a few studies in populations from urban areas have investigated type specific distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV in Nepali women. Data on high-risk HPV (HR-HPV types are not currently available for rural populations in Nepal. We aimed to assess the distribution of HR- HPV among rural Nepali women while assessing self-collected and clinician-collected cervico-vaginal specimens as sample collection methods for HPV screening.Study participants were recruited during a health camp conducted by Nepal Fertility Care Center in Achham District of rural far western Nepal. Women of reproductive age completed a socio-demographic and clinical questionnaire, and provided two specimens; one cervical-vaginal specimen using a self-collection method and another cervical specimen collected by health camp auxiliary nurse midwives during a pelvic examination. All samples were tested for 14 different HR-HPV mRNA and also specific for HPV16/18/45 mRNA.Of 261 women with both clinician- and self-collected cervical samples, 25 tested positive for HR-HPV, resulting in an overall HR-HPV prevalence of 9.6% (95% confidence Interval [CI]: 6.3-13.8. The overall Kappa value assessing agreement between clinician- and self-collected tests was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.43-0.81, indicating a "good" level of agreement. Abnormal cytology was reported for 8 women. One woman identified with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC, and 7 women with high grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL. Seven of the 8 women tested positive for HR-HPV (87.5% in clinician-collected samples and 6 in self-collected samples (75.0%.This is the first study to assess HR-HPV among rural Nepali women. Self-collected sampling methods should be the subject of additional research in Nepal for screening HR-HPV, associated with pre-cancer lesions and cancer, in women in rural areas with limited access to health services.

[Risk assessment work-related stress. pilot study on perceived stress, quality of health and work problems in a sample of workers of judicial offices in rome.

Science.gov (United States)

Berivi, Sandra; Grassi, Antonio; Russello, Carla; Palummieri, Antonio

2017-11-01

In 2008, it was introduced by the Legislature legislation which provided the inclusion of Article 28, paragraph 1 of Legislative Decree. N. 81/2008, which stipulates for businesses and public authorities a duty to assess, among a variety of risks that could threaten the safety and health of workers (chemical, biological risk, etc) and also the work-related stress. The implementation of this decree is, therefore, specified as "work-related stress" as one of the subjects of mandatory assessment risks. The decree, then entrusted to the Permanent Consultative Commission for health and safety at work the task to "prepare the necessary information for the risk assessment of work-related stress", subsequently issued on 17/11/2010 in the form of a "methodological path which represents the minimum level of implementation of the obligation". In light of this regulatory framework, we established our pilot study, with the objective of analyzing a growing occupational discomfort. This objective has been diffused and palpable, but very difficult to define, in a sample of employees of the Judiciary Lazio Offices. The study was commissioned by Law Committee of Guarantee of Equal Opportunity Enhancement of Welfare Work and those against Discrimination (CUG) of the Judicial Offices Romans of the Court of Appeal of Rome also contributed to its realization. The data collected from the administration of two standardized questionnaires was analyzed (Questionnaire-gauge instrument INAIL and the SF-12 v1). More evidently in this pilot study, there was a serious problem in the organizational dimension, in specific, in Managerial Support. Just as it appears, the study sample is perceived "less healthy", both physically and mentally, than the Italian normative sample. Although the sample is only a part of the study population, 26% of workers of the Judicial Offices Romans, the data obtained shows however, from both a quantitative and qualitative view point, a significant occupational stress

Actual problems of environmental factors risk assessment on human health and ways to improve it

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y.A. Rakhmanin

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article provides an analysis of global trends and new areas of health risk assessment and analysis methodology caused by exposure to chemicals, environmental pollutants, and the contemporary issues of national assessment methodology. Most details are considered: risk assessment evidence base, modern methods and problems of carcinogenic risk assessment, hygienic regulation based on risk assessment, the economic aspects of the methodology. Particular attention is paid to reasons of recent years perceived gaps in the Russian methodological basis of the best foreign samples. The urgent measures to improve the national risk assessment methodology are proposed, the main of which are: legislative consolidation of the basic concepts of risk assessment, a further update of the methodology and the practice of hygienic regulation on the basis of risk assessment, improving the valuation of damage to human health, the tightening of the requirements to the developed regulatory guidance documents on risk assessment, as well as to the training and retraining of personnel in the risk assessment.

Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana Open Bays

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

1995-06-23

Data were collected prior to termination of discharge at three sites (including two open bay sites at Delacroix Island and Bay De Chene) for the risk assessments. The Delacroix Island Oil and Gas Field has been in production since the first well drilling in 1940; the Bay De Chene Field, since 1942. Concentrations of 226Ra, 228Ra, 210Po, and 228Th were measured in discharges. Radium conc. were measured in fish and shellfish tissues. Sediment PAH and metal conc. were also available. Benthos sampling was conducted. A survey of fishermen was conducted. The tiered risk assessment showed that human health risks from radium in produced water appear to be small; ecological risk from radium and other radionuclides in produced water also appear small. Many of the chemical contaminants discharged to open Louisiana bays appear to present little human health or ecological risk. A conservative screening analysis suggested potential risks to human health from Hg and Pb and a potential risk to ecological receptors from total effluent, Sb, Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni, Ag, Zn, and phenol in the water column and PAHs in sediment; quantitiative risk assessments are being done for these contaminants.

Personal gravimetric dust sampling and risk assessment.

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Unsted, AD

1996-03-01

Full Text Available The origin of the project SIMGAP project GAP046, were rooted in the industry’s need to establish the viability of such a simplification of sampling procedures. Extensive investigations were conducted at three underground sites and one surface...

Acrylamide in Romanian food using HPLC-UV and a health risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Oroian, Mircea; Amariei, Sonia; Gutt, Gheorghe

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the level of acrylamide from coffee, potato chips and French fries in Romanian food. According to the European Food Safety Authority, coffee beans, potato chips and French fries have the highest levels of acrylamide. For this survey, 50 samples of coffee beans, 50 samples of potato chips and 25 samples of French fries were purchased from different producers from the Romanian market. Acrylamide levels have been quantified using high-performance liquid chromatography with a diode array detector (HPLC-DAD) method, using water as mobile phase. Health risk assessment was achieved by computing the average daily intake, hazard quotient, cumulative risk, carcinogenic risk and cancer risk. For coffee, potato chips and French fries, acrylamide was not shown to pose a health risk in Romanian food.

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saeed Asefzadeh

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

Assessing the bioavailability and risk from metal-contaminated ...

Science.gov (United States)

Exposure to contaminated soil and dust is an important pathway in human health risk assessment. Physical and chemical characteristics, as well as biological factors, determine the bioaccessibility/bioavailability of soil and dust contaminants. Within a single sample, contamination may arise from multiple sources of toxic elements that may exist as different forms (species) which impact bioavailability. In turn, the bioaccessibility/bioavailability of soil and dust contaminants has a direct impact on human health risk assessment and risk management practices. Novel research efforts focusing on development and application of in vitro and in vivo methods to measure the bioaccessibility/bioavailability of metal contaminated soils have advanced in the past few years. The objective of this workshop was to focus on recent developments in assessing the bioaccessibility/bioavailability of arsenic contaminated soils, metal contamination in urban residences in Canada and potential children’s exposures to toxic elements in house dust, a community-based study known as the West Oakland Residential Lead Assessment , studies of the bioavailability of soil cadmium, chromium, nickel and mercury and human exposures to contaminated Brownfield soils. These presentations covered issues related to human health and bioavailability along with the most recent studies on community participation in assessing metal contamination, studies of exposures to residential contamination, and

Assessing Protective Factors for Violence Risk in U.K. General Mental Health Services Using the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Haines, Alina; Brown, Andrew; Javaid, Syed Fahad; Khan, Fayyaz; Noblett, Steve; Omodunbi, Oladipupo; Sadiq, Khurram; Zaman, Wahid; Whittington, Richard

2017-12-01

Violence risk assessment and management are key tasks in mental health services and should be guided by validated instruments covering both risk and protective factors. This article is part of an international effort to validate the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) for violence. The SAPROF, Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) and the Psychopathy Checklist-Screening Version (PCL-SV) were administered in a sample of 261 patients in U.K. forensic, general inpatient, and community mental health settings. There was significant variation between these groups on SAPROF scores with fewer protective factors in the forensic group. The prospective validity of the SAPROF for nonviolence in the general inpatient and community samples was moderate (area under the curve [AUC] = .60). Adoption of the SAPROF or similar instruments as a supplement to risk-focused assessments has the potential to improve awareness of protective factors and enhance therapeutic engagement in a range of mental health services.

Seasonal rockfall risk assessment along transportation network: a sample from Mallorca (Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Mateos, Rosa Maria; Garcia, Inmaculada; Reichenbach, Paola; Herrera, Gerardo; Rius, Joan; Aguilo, Raul; Roldan, Francisco J.

2014-05-01

In the literature there are numerous works focusing on rockfall risk assessment along transportation corridors which take into account several factors, including the annual average traffic volume. Few papers examine in detail examples with a strong seasonal distribution of people travelling along roads, in particular in regions with a great importance for tourism. In these areas, potential blockages along the road network can cause significant economic losses, considering not only direct costs, but also indirect ones related to a reduction in tourism arrivals, with the consequent loss of jobs and profits. In this work we present a methodology for rockfall risk assessment focusing on the reliability and applicability of the evaluation in a test site located in the island of Mallorca, a region which welcomes over 11.3 million visitors per year and where tourism represents the main source of income (83% of its GDP). The Ma-10 road (111 km), located in the north-western sector of the island along the coastal face of the Tramuntana range, has been affected by 85 rockfall events during the past 18 years, which caused repairing costs valued at approximately 2M Euro (Mateos et al., 2013). Rockfalls are triggered by heavy rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles and, for these reasons, autumn and winter can be considered as the most hazardous seasons (Mateos et al., 2012). The road has heavy traffic estimated at 7.200 vehicles per day on average, with a seasonal variation of people travelling in vehicles, the summer being most prominent- up to 6 times the average- due to the pattern of tourism arrivals. To analyse the seasonal rockfall hazard and risk along the Ma-10 road, we obtained the extent of the areas potentially subject to rockfall hazards using STONE, a physically-based rockfall simulation computer program (Guzzetti et al, 2002). The availability of historical rockfalls mapped in detail allowed checking the STONE results, and identifying a hazardous area on the southern

Monitoring and risk assessment of pesticides in irrigation systems in Debra Zeit, Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Teklu, Berhan M; Adriaanse, Paulien I; Van den Brink, Paul J

2016-10-01

Since Ethiopia is going through a rapid transformation of its agricultural sector, we assessed the human health and environmental risks due to the past use of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) as well as the risks of the current pesticide use by farmers. A monitoring programme and risk assessment was carried out for the Wedecha-Belbela irrigation system in the Debra Zeit area. The Wedecha and Belbela rivers and adjacent temporary ponds were sampled and examined for the presence of OCPs between August and October 2014, while data on the current pesticide use by small- and large-scale farmers was collected by interviews. The usage patterns were evaluated for risks of using the river or temporary ponds as source of drinking water and for risks for the aquatic ecosystems in the river and ponds with the aid of the PRIMET_Registration_Ethiopa_1.1 model. The samples were collected in five sampling periods, and results indicate that most of the 18 target OCPs were not detected above the detection limit, while g-chlordane may pose chronic risks when surface water is used as drinking water. Endosulfan and heptachlor pose risks to aquatic organisms at second-tier level, while for heptachlor-epoxide B, g-chlordane and b-BHC only risks could be determined at the first tier due to a lack of data. For all nine pesticides used by small-scale farmers the calculated acute risks to humans were low. Second tier risk assessment for the aquatic ecosystem indicated that lambda-cyhalothrin, endosulfan, profenofos, and diazinon may pose high risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterhouse, Rachel

1992-01-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

A regional approach to the environmental risk assessment in the Campania region

Science.gov (United States)

Minolfi, Giulia; Albanese, Stefano; Lima, Annamaria; De Vivo, Benedetto

2016-04-01

Environmental risk assessment and analysis has a crucial role for guaranteeing the safety of the population, especially in intensive urbanized and industrialized areas, such as the Campania region (Italy). In Italy, since 2006, the human health risk assessment has become mandatory for contaminated soil and waters at contaminated sites. While traditional risk assessment procedures are usually run at site specific level (brownfields), with this work we would like to introduce a freshly developed method to assess risks at regional level by means of GIS, considering the hazard due to the presence in the environment of a contaminated media, the land use variability and the actual distribution of the population. 3535 top soils were collected across the whole Campania region (Italy) with a sampling density of 1 sample/4 km2. Samples were analyzed at ACME Analytical Lab. Ltd (Vancouver, Canada), to determine the concentration of 52 elements, with a combined methods of ICP-MS and ICP-ES following an aqua regia digestion. After a detailed statistical data analysis and geochemical mapping, we reclassified the interpolated maps of some potentially toxic elements (Sb, As, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb, Se, Sn, Tl, V, Zn), in accordance with the Italian environmental law (D.Lgs 152/2006), on the base of the trigger and action limits (CSC) for human safety established by this latter. The obtained maps were summed up in the GIS environment in order to get a cumulative map of the potential hazard for the topsoils of Campania region. Considering that environmental risk for the population is strongly influenced by the exposure pathways followed by contaminants to reach the human target, in the case of Campania region we evaluated as relevant pathways both the soil/dust and food ingestion. Furthermore to consider the influence of the land use in the onset of the risk, each land use type was associated with a specific value of a Land Use Risk Coefficient (LURC) which is also dependent on

Smoking during pregnancy and associated risk factors in a sample of Romanian women.

Science.gov (United States)

Meghea, Cristian I; Rus, Diana; Rus, Ioana A; Summers Holtrop, Jodi; Roman, Leeanne

2012-04-01

Smoking during pregnancy is one of the most modifiable risk factor for poor birth outcomes. This study assesses the prevalence and correlates of smoking during pregnancy. A questionnaire was applied to pregnant women in two urban clinics in Romania to assess smoking prevalence, attitudes and knowledge about smoking, and other risks poorly documented in Romania, such as depressive symptoms, stress and social support. The response rate was >80% and the valid sample comprised of 916 women. Descriptive statistics and logistic regressions were used to estimate the prevalence of smoking and other risk factors and to identify correlates of smoking during pregnancy. Approximately 15% of the women continued smoking during pregnancy, and 26% of all women said they smoked prior to pregnancy, but quit upon finding out they were pregnant. Depressive symptoms and stress were not associated with smoking during pregnancy. Women with no social support had higher odds of continued smoking vs. non-smoking (OR = 2.3, P non-smoking. Lack of awareness about the benefits of quitting smoking and about the risks of smoking light cigarettes were associated with continued smoking during pregnancy. Smoking was common in a sample of Romanian pregnant women. Smoking cessation programs in Romania should include components to raise the awareness about the risks of smoking during pregnancy and the benefits of quitting at any time during pregnancy. More targeted interventions are needed in Roma communities.

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

A questionnaire to measure melanoma risk, knowledge and protective behaviour: assessing content validity in a convenience sample of Scots and Australians.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillespie, Helen S; Watson, Tony; Emery, Jon D; Lee, Amanda J; Murchie, Peter

2011-08-25

The aim of this study was to assess the content validity of a questionnaire to measure melanoma risk, knowledge and protective behaviour in a convenience sample of Scots and Australians. Australia has the highest melanoma incidence worldwide but has developed a culture of skin cancer avoidance with a long history of skin cancer primary prevention campaigns of proven effectiveness. Scotland has lower incidence, but has shown a greater rate of increase between 1985 and 2007. There is an urgent need in Scotland, therefore, to identify those groups at greatest risk and provide them with effective preventative advice. A self-administered postal survey was completed by four groups formed from convenience samples in two geographical locations (Northeast Scotland and Western Australia). In univariate analysis scores on personal risk, level of concern, protective behaviour, and knowledge were compared by nationality, previous skin cancer diagnosis and personally knowing someone with melanoma. Multivariate linear regression analysis modelled the influence of potential predictor variables upon each of the scores. 540 people completed the questionnaire, 273 Scots (50.6%). 133 (24.6%) Scots and 83 (15.4%) Australians previously had melanoma or non-melanoma skin cancer, whilst 120 (22.2%) Scots and 190 (35.2%) Australians personally knew someone with melanoma. Australians had higher knowledge (p behaviour (p behaviours in Australians than in Scottish people. This was expected and supports the content validity of the questionnaire and its value as a future research tool in the Scottish population.

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

A Survey of occurrence of toxogenic fungi and mycotoxins in pig feed samples-Use in evaluation of risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dragan Milicevic

Full Text Available In order to assess of risk assessment, the aim of this paper was to provide good and detailed insight into the level of contamination of complete feedmixes intended for fattening swine from mycotoxin-producing fungi and mycotoxins (n=18. Isolation and quantitative enumeration of fungal propagules were done on solid media using the standard microbiological procedure. These plates were incubated the number of colonies was determined and thent on the basis of characteristic colonies and microscopic analysis was performed to identify genera and species of moulds. Isolates identified as Aspergillus and Penicillium species were subjected to molecular characterization of the presence of genes responsible for the synthesis of OTA (polyketide synthase gene-PKS. Total fungal counts (CFU/g ranged from 0,5x105 do 4x106. From a total samples analysed, seven samples had fungal counts higher than the limit established by Serbian regulations (3x105. During a mycological analysis of complete feedmixes intended for fattening swine, a total of six genera and 14 species of moulds were identified of which the most frequent one was of the genus Penicillium (94,4% while the moulds from Fusarium genere isolated in 55,5% and Paecilomyces in 44,4% of the samples from investigated localities. Other fungi from the genera Aspergillus (22%, Mycor (11,1% and Alternaria (5,5% were represented in a less amount. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR is a set of 18 isolates of the DNA belonging to families Penicillium and Aspergillus. The sequences of PCR reaction products in three samples were compared with nucleotide sequences of genes for poliketid synthase (PKS from Penicillium species and found that the samples possess PKS sequence. The traditional methods for identification of ochratoxin-producing fungi are time-consuming and labor-intensive. Rapid and specific detection of ochratoxinproducing fungi is important for ensuring microbiological quality and safety of feed and food

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Fall Risk Assessment Tools in People With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy

Science.gov (United States)

Pohl, Patricia S.; Mahnken, Jonathan D.; Kluding, Patricia M.

2012-01-01

Background Diabetic peripheral neuropathy affects nearly half of individuals with diabetes and leads to increased fall risk. Evidence addressing fall risk assessment for these individuals is lacking. Objective The purpose of this study was to identify which of 4 functional mobility fall risk assessment tools best discriminates, in people with diabetic peripheral neuropathy, between recurrent “fallers” and those who are not recurrent fallers. Design A cross-sectional study was conducted. Setting The study was conducted in a medical research university setting. Participants The participants were a convenience sample of 36 individuals between 40 and 65 years of age with diabetic peripheral neuropathy. Measurements Fall history was assessed retrospectively and was the criterion standard. Fall risk was assessed using the Functional Reach Test, the Timed “Up & Go” Test, the Berg Balance Scale, and the Dynamic Gait Index. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and overall diagnostic accuracy were calculated for each fall risk assessment tool. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to estimate modified cutoff scores for each fall risk assessment tool; indexes then were recalculated. Results Ten of the 36 participants were classified as recurrent fallers. When traditional cutoff scores were used, the Dynamic Gait Index and Functional Reach Test demonstrated the highest sensitivity at only 30%; the Dynamic Gait Index also demonstrated the highest overall diagnostic accuracy. When modified cutoff scores were used, all tools demonstrated improved sensitivity (80% or 90%). Overall diagnostic accuracy improved for all tests except the Functional Reach Test; the Timed “Up & Go” Test demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy at 88.9%. Limitations The small sample size and retrospective fall history assessment were limitations of the study. Conclusions Modified cutoff scores improved diagnostic accuracy for 3 of 4 fall risk

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Parametric estimation of P(X > Y) for normal distributions in the context of probabilistic environmental risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, Rianne; Bekker, Andriëtte A; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

2015-01-01

Estimating the risk, P(X > Y), in probabilistic environmental risk assessment of nanoparticles is a problem when confronted by potentially small risks and small sample sizes of the exposure concentration X and/or the effect concentration Y. This is illustrated in the motivating case study of aquatic risk assessment of nano-Ag. A non-parametric estimator based on data alone is not sufficient as it is limited by sample size. In this paper, we investigate the maximum gain possible when making strong parametric assumptions as opposed to making no parametric assumptions at all. We compare maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators with the non-parametric estimator and study the influence of sample size and risk on the (interval) estimators via simulation. We found that the parametric estimators enable us to estimate and bound the risk for smaller sample sizes and small risks. Also, the Bayesian estimator outperforms the maximum likelihood estimators in terms of coverage and interval lengths and is, therefore, preferred in our motivating case study.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

2013-01-01

Summary An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations. PMID:23914133

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Risk assessments ensure safer power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-02-19

A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

Evaluation the total exposure of soil sample in Adaya site and the obtain risk assessments for the worker by Res Rad code program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahadi, A. M.; Khadim, A. A. N.; Ibrahim, Z. H.; Ali, S. A.

2012-12-01

The present study aims to evaluation the total exposure to the worker in Adaya site risk assessment by using Res Rad code program. The study including 5 areas soil sample calculate in the site and analysis it by High Pure Germaniums (Hg) system made (CANBERRA) company. The soil sample simulation by (Res Rad) code program by inter the radioactive isotope concentration and the specification of the contamination zone area, depth and the cover depth of it. The total exposure of same sample was about 9 mSv/year and the (Heast 2001 Morbidity, FGR13 Morbidity) about 2.045 state every 100 worker in the year. There are simple different between Heast 2001 Morbidity and FGR13 Morbidity according to the Dose Conversion Factor (DCF) use it. The (FGR13 Morbidity) about 2.041 state every 100 worker in the year. (Author)

Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana open bays. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

1996-01-01

The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has a program of research in the environmental aspects of oil and gas extraction. This sampling project will characterize the environmental impacts associated with the discharge of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM), metals and organics in produced water. This report is part of a series of studies of the health and ecological risks from discharges of produced water to the Gulf of Mexico, supported by the USDOE. These assessments are being coordinated with the field study, using the collected data to perform human health and ecological risk assessments. These assessments will provide input to regulators in the development of guidelines and permits, and to industry in the development and use of appropriate discharge practices. The initial human health and ecological risk assessments consist of conservative screening analyses meant to identify potentially important contaminants, and to eliminate others from further consideration. More quantitative assessments were done for contaminants identified, in the screening analysis, as being of potential concern. Section 2 gives an overview of human health and ecological risk assessment to help put the analyses presented here in perspective. Section 3 provides the hazard assessment portion of the risk assessment, and identifies the important receptors and pathways of concern. Section 3 also outlines the approach taken to the risk assessments presented in the rest of the report. The remaining sections (4 through 9) present the human health and ecological risk assessments for discharges of produced water to open bays in Louisiana

Risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

2010-01-01

International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

Baseline risk assessment for groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site, Gunnison, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-11-01

The Gunnison Baseline Risk Assessment for Groundwater Contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site was performed to determine if long-term use of groundwater from domestic wells near the site has a potential for adverse health effects. The risk assessment was based on the results of sampling domestic wells during 1989--1990. A risk assessment evaluates health risks by comparing the amount of a contaminant taken in by a person with the amount of the contaminant that may be toxic. The Gunnison Risk Assessment used high intake values to estimate the maximum levels a person might be exposed to. The results of the risk assessment are divided into cancer (carcinogenic) risks and non-carcinogenic risks. Five key contaminants were evaluated for adverse health risks: uranium, manganese, lead antimony, and cadmium. Due to the potential health risks and the unavoidable uncertainties associated with limited groundwater and toxicity data, it is prudent public health policy to provide a permanent alternate water supply. Additionally, providing a permanent alternate water supply is cost-effective compared to long-term routine monitoring

Risk assessment of Deoxynivalenol in Food. An assessment of exposure and effects in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pieters MN; Freijer J; Baars AJ; Slob W; CSR; LEO; LBM

2001-01-01

This report describes a risk assessment of deoxynivalenol (DON) in food in the Netherlands. Based on monitoring data of DON in wheat and wheat containing food products (sampling period September 1998 - January 2000) and data on the food consumption pattern in the Netherlands we carried out a

Postoperative constipation risk assessment in Turkish orthopedic patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Şendir, Merdiye; Büyükıylmaz, Funda; Aştı, Türkinaz; Gürpınar, Şengül; Yazgan, İlknur

2012-01-01

This descriptive, correlational study was conducted to describe constipation risk assessment and the affecting factors of constipation risk of patients who have undergone major orthopedic surgery. Data were collected using a patient information form and the Constipation Risk Assessment Scale (CRAS) on the second postoperative day. Data were analyzed using the SPSS version 11.5 for Windows. The mean age of the 83 patients studied was 53.75 ± 21.29 years. Subjects were hospitalized in the orthopedic wards for 14.39 ± 15.17 days, and their current bowel habit was 2.18 ± 1.80 stools per week. Of the sample, 63.9% were female, 69.9% of the patients had a history of previous surgery, 45.8% had hip/knee arthroplasty surgery, and 55.4% had bowel problems during the hospitalization period. Patients had a medium risk for constipation according to the CRAS subscale (gender, mobility, and pharmacological agents). Total CRAS score was 12.73 ± 4.75 (medium risk) on the second postoperative day. In addition, age, marital status, educational level, having a history of surgery, and bowel elimination problems did have a significant effect on constipation risk. On the basis of the findings from this study, nurses must learn the postoperative constipation risk of orthopedic patients to implement safe and effective interventions.

Risk Attitudes, Sample Selection and Attrition in a Longitudinal Field Experiment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

with respect to risk attitudes. Our design builds in explicit randomization on the incentives for participation. We show that there are significant sample selection effects on inferences about the extent of risk aversion, but that the effects of subsequent sample attrition are minimal. Ignoring sample...... selection leads to inferences that subjects in the population are more risk averse than they actually are. Correcting for sample selection and attrition affects utility curvature, but does not affect inferences about probability weighting. Properly accounting for sample selection and attrition effects leads...... to findings of temporal stability in overall risk aversion. However, that stability is around different levels of risk aversion than one might naively infer without the controls for sample selection and attrition we are able to implement. This evidence of “randomization bias” from sample selection...

SAMPLING IN EXTERNAL AUDIT - THE MONETARY UNIT SAMPLING METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Dascalu

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This article approaches the general issue of diminishing the evidence investigation space in audit activities, by means of sampling techniques, given that in the instance of a significant data volume an exhaustive examination of the assessed popula¬tion is not possible and/or effective. The general perspective of the presentation involves dealing with sampling risk, in essence, the risk that a selected sample may not be representative for the overall population, in correlation with the audit risk model and with the component parts of this model (inherent risk, control risk and non detection risk and highlights the inter-conditionings between these two models.

Assessing Acceptability of Self-Sampling Kits, Prevalence, and Risk Factors for Human Papillomavirus Infection in American Indian Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Winer, Rachel L; Gonzales, Angela A; Noonan, Carolyn J; Cherne, Stephen L; Buchwald, Dedra S

2016-10-01

We evaluated the feasibility and acceptability of self-sampling for human papillomavirus (HPV) testing and calculated the prevalence of and risk factors for high-risk (hr) HPV infections in a community-based sample of American Indian women. To this end, we recruited 329 Hopi women aged 21-65 years to self-collect vaginal samples for hrHPV testing. Samples were tested by polymerase chain reaction for 14 hrHPV genotypes. We used Chi square tests to identify correlates of preference for clinician Pap testing versus HPV self-sampling, and age-adjusted Poisson regression to evaluate correlates of hrHPV prevalence. We found that satisfaction with HPV self-sampling was high, with 96 % of women reporting that the sample was easy to collect and 87 % reporting no discomfort. The majority (62 %) indicated that they preferred HPV self-sampling to receiving a Pap test from a clinician. Preference for Pap testing over HPV self-sampling was positively associated with adherence to Pap screening and employment outside the home. All samples evaluated were satisfactory for HPV testing, and 22 % were positive for hrHPV. HrHPV prevalence peaked in the late 20 s and declined with increasing age. HrHPV positivity was inversely associated with having children living the household. In conclusion, HPV self-sampling is feasible and acceptable to Hopi women, and could be effective in increasing rates of cervical cancer screening in Hopi communities. HrHPV prevalence was similar to estimates in the general United States population.

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Bullying, Depression, and Suicide Risk in a Pediatric Primary Care Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Kodish, Tamar; Herres, Joanna; Shearer, Annie; Atte, Tita; Fein, Joel; Diamond, Guy

2016-05-01

Suicide is a serious public health concern for US youth. Research has established an association between bullying and suicide risk. However, several questions remain regarding this relationship. The present study examined (a) whether experiences of verbal, physical, and cyber bullying were uniquely associated with general suicide risk; (b) whether each specific form of bullying was related to suicide attempt; and (c) whether depression moderated the relationship between each type of bullying and suicide risk. The sample included medical records of 5,429 youth screened in primary care when providers had mental health concerns. Patients were screened using the Behavioral Health Screen (BHS), which assessed a range of mental health problems and behaviors, including bullying, depression, and suicide. All types of bullying were associated with suicide risk, but verbal bullying was uniquely associated with suicide attempt. Depression significantly moderated the relationship between each type of bullying and suicide risk. The study's limitations include the use of cross-sectional and self-data reports. When medical providers evaluate suicide risk, bullying should be considered as a possible precipitant, especially if the patient is depressed. Verbal bullying may be particularly important in understanding severity of suicide risk.

A spatially-evaluated methodology for assessing risk to a population from contaminated land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gay, J. Rebecca; Korre, Anna

2006-01-01

A methodology is proposed which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land, in a manner which preserves the spatial distribution of risks and provides a measure of uncertainty in the assessment. Maps of soil contaminant levels, which incorporate uncertainty, are produced from sparse sample data using sequential indicator simulation. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. An abundance of information is contained in results which can be interrogated at the population and individual level, and mapped to provide a powerful visual tool for risk managers, enabling efficient targeting of risk reduction measures to different locations. - A methodology for calculating and mapping risks to a population from intake of soil contaminants

Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Rausand, Marvin

2011-01-01

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

2004-01-01

This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

Atherogenic Risk Assessment among Persons Living in Rural Uganda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clara Wekesa

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Hypertension and dyslipidemia are independent risk factors for coronary heart disease and commonly coexist. Cardiovascular risk can be reliably predicted using lipid ratios such as the atherogenic index, a useful prognostic parameter for guiding timely interventions. Objective. We assessed the cardiovascular risk profile based on the atherogenic index of residents within a rural Ugandan cohort. Methods. In 2011, a population based survey was conducted among 7507 participants. Sociodemographic characteristics, physical measurements (blood pressure, weight, height, and waist and hip circumference, and blood sampling for nonfasting lipid profile were collected for each participant. Atherogenic risk profile, defined as logarithm base ten of (triglyceride divided by high density lipoprotein cholesterol, was categorised as low risk (0.24. Results. Fifty-five percent of participants were female and the mean age was 49.9 years (SD±20.2. Forty-two percent of participants had high and intermediate atherogenic risk. Persons with hypertension, untreated HIV infection, abnormal glycaemia, and obesity and living in less urbanised villages were more at risk. Conclusion. A significant proportion of persons in this rural population are at risk of atherosclerosis. Key identified populations at risk should be considered for future intervention against cardiovascular related morbidity and mortality. The study however used parameters from unfasted samples that may have a bearing on observed results.

Sudbury soils study : summary of volume 3 : ecological risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2009-03-15

The Sudbury soils study was comprised of 3 volumes: (1) a background, study organization and 2001 soils survey; (2) a human health risk assessment; and (3) an ecological risk assessment (ERA). This document provided details of the ERA, which was conducted to characterize the current and future risks of chemicals of concern (COC) to terrestrial and ecosystem components from Sudbury smelter particulate emissions. The extent to which COC are preventing the recovery of regionally representative terrestrial plant communities was investigated. Risks to terrestrial wildlife populations and endangered species and communities were evaluated. Samples of soil, water, sediment, plants, terrestrial invertebrates, and fish tissue were collected. Data were then analyzed by scientists and independent consultants in order to assess the impacts of arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, lead, nickel and selenium. Results of the study indicated that terrestrial plant communities in the region continue to be impacted by COC in the soil, as well as by soil erosion, low nutrient levels, and a lack of soil organic matter. Direct impacts on wildlife populations were also observed. 5 refs., 7 tabs., 21 figs.

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Utility of Respondent Driven Sampling to Reach Disadvantaged Emerging Adults for Assessment of Substance Use, Weight, and Sexual Behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Jalie A; Simpson, Cathy A; Chandler, Susan D; Borch, Casey A; Davies, Susan L; Kerbawy, Shatomi J; Lewis, Terri H; Crawford, M Scott; Cheong, JeeWon; Michael, Max

2016-01-01

Emerging adulthood often entails heightened risk-taking with potential life-long consequences, and research on risk behaviors is needed to guide prevention programming, particularly in under-served and difficult to reach populations. This study evaluated the utility of Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS), a peer-driven methodology that corrects limitations of snowball sampling, to reach at-risk African American emerging adults from disadvantaged urban communities. Initial "seed" participants from the target group recruited peers, who then recruited their peers in an iterative process (110 males, 234 females; M age = 18.86 years). Structured field interviews assessed common health risk factors, including substance use, overweight/obesity, and sexual behaviors. Established gender-and age-related associations with risk factors were replicated, and sample risk profiles and prevalence estimates compared favorably with matched samples from representative U.S. national surveys. Findings supported the use of RDS as a sampling method and grassroots platform for research and prevention with community-dwelling risk groups.

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Hrdová, Edita

2012-01-01

This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Kirk R; Stansfield, Richard

2017-08-01

To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

HTGR accident and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

1982-01-01

This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Risk-informed assessment of degraded containment structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spencer, B.W.; Kunsman, D.M.; Graves, H.L.

2003-01-01

As nuclear power plants age, a number of degradation mechanisms may begin to affect the ability of critical containment structures to prevent radiation release during a severe accident. A research program is underway to quantify the effects of various types of containment degradation in a risk-informed manner. In this paper, corrosion is assumed to occur in the liner of a reinforced concrete containment at a 'typical' U.S. pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant, and its effect is investigated. Latin hypercube sampling is used in conjunction with finite element models of a typical steel-lined reinforced concrete containment to generate overpressurization fragilities of the containment with and without corrosion. An existing probabilistic risk assessment model of the plant is then used with these fragilities to determine the increase in risk caused by the corrosion. (author)

Risk assessment and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisk, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

Risk assessment and the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Bioassay-based risk assessment of hazardous waste

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Donnelly, K.C.; Brown, K.W.; He, L.Y. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

1994-12-31

Microbial bioassays have been used to assess the genotoxic hazard at more than 30 different hazardous waste sites. Environmental samples were extracted with dichloromethane and methanol, and the resulting residue tested using GC/MS analysis as well as the Salmonella Microsomal and E. coli Prophage Induction assays. At a munitions wastewater contaminated site, there was no correlation between mutagenicity in bacteria, and the risk as estimated from chemical analysis data of trinitrotoluene. Samples 202 and 204 from a coal gasification site contained 72 mg/kg and 9 mg/kg benzo(a)pyrene, whereas the mutagenic responses of these samples were 231 net revertants/mg and 902 revertants/mg, respectively. The data suggest that microbial bioassays provide a valuable tool for monitoring the interactions of the components of a complex mixture.

Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1988-01-01

A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

Science.gov (United States)

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, K.C.

1992-01-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

1992-07-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

OpenAIRE

Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

2017-01-01

The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-04-01

The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Părăian Mihaela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

Screening Level Risk Assessment for the New Waste Calcining Facility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

M. L. Abbott; K. N. Keck; R. E. Schindler; R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; M. B. Heiser

1999-05-01

This screening level risk assessment evaluates potential adverse human health and ecological impacts resulting from continued operations of the calciner at the New Waste Calcining Facility (NWCF) at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC), Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). The assessment was conducted in accordance with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, Guidance for Performing Screening Level Risk Analyses at Combustion Facilities Burning Hazardous Waste. This screening guidance is intended to give a conservative estimate of the potential risks to determine whether a more refined assessment is warranted. The NWCF uses a fluidized-bed combustor to solidify (calcine) liquid radioactive mixed waste from the INTEC Tank Farm facility. Calciner off volatilized metal species, trace organic compounds, and low-levels of radionuclides. Conservative stack emission rates were calculated based on maximum waste solution feed samples, conservative assumptions for off gas partitioning of metals and organics, stack gas sampling for mercury, and conservative measurements of contaminant removal (decontamination factors) in the off gas treatment system. Stack emissions were modeled using the ISC3 air dispersion model to predict maximum particulate and vapor air concentrations and ground deposition rates. Results demonstrate that NWCF emissions calculated from best-available process knowledge would result in maximum onsite and offsite health and ecological impacts that are less then EPA-established criteria for operation of a combustion facility.

Chlorine transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

1977-02-01

An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

Risk assessment in maritime transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

2001-01-01

A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

Framework for ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

1992-02-01

Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

Assessing the impact of a combined analysis of four common low-risk genetic variants on autism risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carayol Jerome

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Autism is a complex disorder characterized by deficits involving communication, social interaction, and repetitive and restrictive patterns of behavior. Twin studies have shown that autism is strongly heritable, suggesting a strong genetic component. In other disease states with a complex etiology, such as type 2 diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular disease, combined analysis of multiple genetic variants in a genetic score has helped to identify individuals at high risk of disease. Genetic scores are designed to test for association of genetic markers with disease. Method The accumulation of multiple risk alleles markedly increases the risk of being affected, and compared with studying polymorphisms individually, it improves the identification of subgroups of individuals at greater risk. In the present study, we show that this approach can be applied to autism by specifically looking at a high-risk population of children who have siblings with autism. A two-sample study design and the generation of a genetic score using multiple independent genes were used to assess the risk of autism in a high-risk population. Results In both samples, odds ratios (ORs increased significantly as a function of the number of risk alleles, with a genetic score of 8 being associated with an OR of 5.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.45 to 12.49. The sensitivities and specificities for each genetic score were similar in both analyses, and the resultant area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were identical (0.59. Conclusions These results suggest that the accumulation of multiple risk alleles in a genetic score is a useful strategy for assessing the risk of autism in siblings of affected individuals, and may be better than studying single polymorphisms for identifying subgroups of individuals with significantly greater risk.

Focus maps: a means of prioritizing data collection for efficient geo-risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Massimiliano Pittore

2015-04-01

Full Text Available  Efficient Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR management constantly calls upon high-quality information to be collected or updated for vulnerability monitoring and risk assessment. This process is often resource- and time-intensive, which many economically developing states (including most Central Asian countries can seldom afford. In this paper, we introduce the concept of focus maps as a useful tool to quantify the spatial probability of sampling. Focus maps allow for a data collection prioritization scheme to be put in place, enabling the realization of optimized spatial sampling which assigns a higher priority to locations where the need for high-quality information is greater. In practice, smaller samples can be drawn with the same (or better resulting accuracy of the estimates, resulting in a more efficient use of time and resources. The factors that affect such a spatial sampling scheme include the usual components of risk assessment (hazard, exposure, vulnerability where available, as well as other potentially critical factors, such as the extent and quality of previously collected data. The practical application of the proposed approach to the case of Central Asia will be exemplified and discussed.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

A case study of risk assessment in contaminated site remediation in China

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, S.; Guo, J.; Wu, J.; Wang, J.; Chien, C.; Stahl, R.; Mack, E.; Grosso, N.

2013-12-01

A field site in Nanjing, China was selected for a case study of risk assessment in contaminated site remediation. This site is about 100m long and 100m wide. A chemical plant (1999-2010) at the site manufactured optical brightener PF, 2-Amino-4-methylphenol and 2-Nitro-4-methylphenol, totally three products. Soil and groundwater samples were collected and analyzed for PPL 126 (126 pollutants in the 'Priority Pollutants List' issued by US EPA). Values of the Dutch Standards were used as the screening criteria for soil and ground water. Low levels of ethylbenezene, chlorobenzene, 1,3-dichlorobenzene and 1,4- dichlorobenzene were detected in one soil sample. Concentrations above Dutch Target Value (DTV) of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, chlorobenzene, 1,2-dichlorobenzene, 1,3-dichlorobenzene, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, and/or 1,2,4-trichlorobenzene, phenol, and/or 2,4-dichlorophenol were exhibited in two groundwater samples. The ground water was especially highly impacted by bichlorobenzenes and trichlorobenzenes. The maximum concentration of impacts was 7.3 mg/L of 1,2,4-trichlorobenzene in groundwater which was 730 times higher than Dutch Intervention Values (DIV). Risk of soil and groundwater at this site was assessed according to the guidelines issued by Chinese MEP and US EPA, respectively. Finally, remedy techniques were selected according to the result of risk assessment and the characteristics of hydrogeology conditions and contaminants.

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Response to Ecological Risk Assessment Forum Request for Information on the Benefits of PCB Congener-Specific Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

In August, 2001, the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF) submitted a formal question to the Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) on the benefits of evaluating PCB congeners in environmental samples. This question was developed by ERAF members Bruce Duncan and Cla...

Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

2018-08-01

Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Study to Assess the Knowledge on Risk for Fall among Geriatric People Above 60 Years at Selected Oldage Home at Karaikal

OpenAIRE

R.G. Padmapriya; E. Kalaivani

2017-01-01

A study to assess the risk for fall among geriatric people above 60 years of age in selected old age home at karaikal. The research approach was adopted for this study was quantitative approach. The research design used for this study is descriptive design. A simple random sampling technique adopted to select the desired sample. Sample size is 50. Donna conley fall risk assessment scale was used to assess the risk for fall among geriatric people above 60 years of age . The collected data was...

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana G. Feoktistova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

Pesticides in the Ebro River basin: Occurrence and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ccanccapa, Alexander; Masiá, Ana; Navarro-Ortega, Alícia; Picó, Yolanda; Barceló, Damià

2016-01-01

In this study, 50 pesticides were analyzed in the Ebro River basin in 2010 and 2011 to assess their impact in water, sediment and biota. A special emphasis was placed on the potential effects of both, individual pesticides and their mixtures, in three trophic levels (algae, daphnia and fish) using Risk Quotients (RQs) and Toxic Units (TUs) for water and sediments. Chlorpyrifos, diazinon and carbendazim were the most frequent in water (95, 95 and 70% of the samples, respectively). Imazalil (409.73 ng/L) and diuron (150 ng/L) were at the highest concentrations. Sediment and biota were less contaminated. Chlorpyrifos, diazinon and diclofenthion were the most frequent in sediments (82, 45 and 21% of the samples, respectively). The only pesticide detected in biota was chlorpyrifos (up to 840.2 ng g"−"1). Ecotoxicological risk assessment through RQs showed that organophosphorus and azol presented high risk for algae; organophosphorus, benzimidazoles, carbamates, juvenile hormone mimic and other pesticides for daphnia, and organophosphorus, azol and juvenile hormone mimics for fish. The sum TU_s_i_t_e for water and sediments showed values < 1 for the three bioassays. In both matrices, daphnia and fish were more sensitive to the mixture of pesticide residues present. - Highlights: • Wide occurrence of pesticides in water and in lesser extent in sediment and biota. • Ecotoxicological pesticide risk assessment in the Ebro river and its tributaries. • Sum TU_s_i_t_e pointed out daphnia as more sensitive to the pesticide residue mixture. • Chronic toxicity test (RQ) showed risk in three trophic level (algae, daphnia and fish). - Evidence of water, sediment and biota contamination by a cocktail of pesticide residues especially hazardous for Daphnia.

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

Science.gov (United States)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Go, Susie

2014-01-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Risk perception of different emergencies in a sample of European firefighters.

Science.gov (United States)

Prati, Gabriele; Pietrantoni, Luca; Saccinto, Elisa; Kehl, Doris; Knuth, Daniela; Schmidt, Silke

2013-01-01

Firefighters frequently incur injuries while providing emergency services. Risk perception has been found to be associated with injury and safety behavior. This study examined risk perception of different emergency situations among firefighters. Along with risk perceptions, we investigated the role of practical experience, perceived training, tenure, and acute stress related to different emergency situations. Participants were a sample of 1324 firefighters from Germany and Italy. A questionnaire was administered to participants on risk perceptions, practical experience, perceived training, tenure, and acute stress. The results showed that different levels of risk perception are related to different practical experience, acute stress reactions, and training. Higher risk perception was associated with higher perceived training, practical experience, and acute stress reactions. A significant difference was found between the German and the Italian sample in risk perceptions. More specifically the Italian sample perceived disasters (e.g., earthquakes) as more risky. Moreover, there were some differences in perceived training and practical experience about the different emergency situations, in the two samples. The results underline the importance of considering organizational factors in the prediction of risk perception among firefighters.

Psychosis risk screening: Validation of the youth psychosis at-risk questionnaire - brief in a community-derived sample of adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca-Pedrero, Eduardo; Ortuño-Sierra, Javier; Chocarro, Edurne; Inchausti, Felix; Debbané, Martin; Bobes, Julio

2017-12-01

There have been several attempts to identify individuals potentially at high risk for psychotic-spectrum disorders using brief screening measures. However, relatively few studies have tested the psychometric properties of the psychosis screening measures in representative samples of adolescents. The main purpose of the present study was to analyse the prevalence, factorial structure, measurement invariance across gender, and reliability of the Youth Psychosis At-Risk Questionnaire - Brief (YPARQ-B) in a community-derived sample of adolescents. Additionally, the relationship between YPARQ-B, depressive symptoms, psychopathology, stress manifestations, and prosocial skills was analysed. One thousand and twenty students from high schools participated in a cross-sectional survey. The YPARQ-B, the Reynolds Adolescent Depression Scale, the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, and the Student Stress Inventory - Stress Manifestations were used. A total of 85.1% of the total sample self-reported at least one subclinical psychotic experience. We observed a total of 10.9% of adolescents with a cutoff score of ≥11 or 6.8% with a cutoff score of ≥13. The analysis of internal structure of the YPARQ-B yielded an essentially unidimensional structure. The YPARQ-B scores showed measurement invariance across gender. The internal consistency of the YPARQ-B total score was 0.94. Furthermore, self-reported subclinical psychotic experiences were associated with depressive symptoms, emotional and behavioural problems, poor prosocial skills, and stress manifestations. These results would appear to indicate that YPARQ-B is a brief and easy tool to assess self-reported subclinical psychotic experiences in adolescents from the general population. The assessment of these experiences in community settings, and its associations with psychopathology, may help us to enhance the possibility of an early identification of adolescents potentially at risk for psychosis and mental health

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-11-15

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Social aspects of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

1977-01-01

Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

Risk assessment - black art or science?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, G.

1988-01-01

Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

Violent reinjury risk assessment instrument (VRRAI) for hospital-based violence intervention programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Erik J; Dodington, James; Hunt, Ava; Henderson, Terrell; Nwabuo, Adaobi; Dicker, Rochelle; Juillard, Catherine

2017-09-01

Violent injury is the second most common cause of death among 15- to 24-year olds in the US. Up to 58% of violently injured youth return to the hospital with a second violent injury. Hospital-based violence intervention programs (HVIPs) have been shown to reduce injury recidivism through intensive case management. However, no validated guidelines for risk assessment strategies in the HVIP setting have been reported. We aimed to use qualitative methods to investigate the key components of risk assessments employed by HVIP case managers and to propose a risk assessment model based on this qualitative analysis. An established academic hospital-affiliated HVIP served as the nexus for this research. Thematic saturation was reached with 11 semi-structured interviews and two focus groups conducted with HVIP case managers and key informants identified through snowball sampling. Interactions were analyzed by a four-member team using Nvivo 10, employing the constant comparison method. Risk factors identified were used to create a set of models presented in two follow-up HVIP case managers and leadership focus groups. Eighteen key themes within seven domains (environment, identity, mental health, behavior, conflict, indicators of lower risk, and case management) and 141 potential risk factors for use in the risk assessment framework were identified. The most salient factors were incorporated into eight models that were presented to the HVIP case managers. A 29-item algorithmic structured professional judgment model was chosen. We identified four tiers of risk factors for violent reinjury that were incorporated into a proposed risk assessment instrument, VRRAI. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of ulceration risk in diabetic individuals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luz Marina Alfonso Dutra

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To identify the risk factors for foot ulceration through the tracing of diabetic peripheral neuropathy and peripheral arterial disease in individuals with type I and II diabetes, who were assisted in reference centers of the Federal District, Brazil. Method: a cross-sectional and analytical study, with the assessment of 117 individuals in outpatient clinics of the Federal District. Continuous variables were compared through Mann-Whitney test, and categorized variables, through Chi-square test for univariate analysis and Logistics regression test for multivariate analysis. Results: painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy was present in 37 (75.5% of the individuals with neuropathy. Deformities and loss of protective plant sensibility were related to neuropathy (p=0.014 and p=0.001, respectively. Of the 40 (34.2% individuals in the sample who presented peripheral arterial disease, 26 (65% presented calcification risk. Conclusion: signs of painful peripheral polyneuropathy, peripheral arterial disease, deformities, loss of protective plantar sensibility, and dry skin were identified as risk factors for ulceration.

Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT): The development of an actuarial risk assessment instrument for predicting general offense recidivism on the basis of police records.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Put, Claudia E

2014-06-01

Estimating the risk for recidivism is important for many areas of the criminal justice system. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT) was developed for juvenile offenders based solely on police records, with the aim to estimate the risk of general recidivism among large groups of juvenile offenders by police officers without clinical expertise. On the basis of the Y-ARAT, juvenile offenders are classified into five risk groups based on (combinations of) 10 variables including different types of incidents in which the juvenile was a suspect, total number of incidents in which the juvenile was a suspect, total number of other incidents, total number of incidents in which co-occupants at the youth's address were suspects, gender, and age at first incident. The Y-ARAT was developed on a sample of 2,501 juvenile offenders and validated on another sample of 2,499 juvenile offenders, showing moderate predictive accuracy (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve = .73), with little variation between the construction and validation sample. The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT was considered sufficient to justify its use as a screening instrument for the police. © The Author(s) 2013.

Cardiometabolic Risk Assessments by Body Mass Index z-Score or Waist-to-Height Ratio in a Multiethnic Sample of Sixth-Graders

Science.gov (United States)

Kahn, Henry S.; El ghormli, Laure; Jago, Russell; Foster, Gary D.; McMurray, Robert G.; Buse, John B.; Stadler, Diane D.; Treviño, Roberto P.; Baranowski, Tom; HEALTHY Study Group

2014-01-01

Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz) referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabolic risk. Among 5,482 sixth-grade students from 42 middle schools, we estimated explanatory variations (R 2) and standardized beta coefficients of BMIz or WHtR for cardiometabolic risk factors: insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), lipids, blood pressures, and glucose. For each risk outcome variable, we prepared adjusted regression models for four subpopulations stratified by sex and high versus lower fatness. For HOMA-IR, R 2 attributed to BMIz or WHtR was 19%–28% among high-fatness and 8%–13% among lower-fatness students. R 2 for lipid variables was 4%–9% among high-fatness and 2%–7% among lower-fatness students. In the lower-fatness subpopulations, the standardized coefficients for total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol and triglycerides tended to be weaker for BMIz (0.13–0.20) than for WHtR (0.17–0.28). Among high-fatness students, BMIz and WHtR correlated with blood pressures for Hispanics and whites, but not black boys (systolic) or girls (systolic and diastolic). In 11-12 year olds, assessments by WHtR can provide cardiometabolic risk estimates similar to conventional BMIz without requiring reference to a normative growth chart. PMID:25132986

Cardiometabolic Risk Assessments by Body Mass Index z-Score or Waist-to-Height Ratio in a Multiethnic Sample of Sixth-Graders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry S. Kahn

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabolic risk. Among 5,482 sixth-grade students from 42 middle schools, we estimated explanatory variations (R2 and standardized beta coefficients of BMIz or WHtR for cardiometabolic risk factors: insulin resistance (HOMA-IR, lipids, blood pressures, and glucose. For each risk outcome variable, we prepared adjusted regression models for four subpopulations stratified by sex and high versus lower fatness. For HOMA-IR, R2 attributed to BMIz or WHtR was 19%–28% among high-fatness and 8%–13% among lower-fatness students. R2 for lipid variables was 4%–9% among high-fatness and 2%–7% among lower-fatness students. In the lower-fatness subpopulations, the standardized coefficients for total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol and triglycerides tended to be weaker for BMIz (0.13–0.20 than for WHtR (0.17–0.28. Among high-fatness students, BMIz and WHtR correlated with blood pressures for Hispanics and whites, but not black boys (systolic or girls (systolic and diastolic. In 11-12 year olds, assessments by WHtR can provide cardiometabolic risk estimates similar to conventional BMIz without requiring reference to a normative growth chart.

Improving nursing students' assessment of fall risk in community-dwelling older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Patton, Susan K

2016-12-09

Nationally, approximately one third of older adults fall each year. Falls and resulting injury result in decreased mobility, functional impairment, loss of independence, and increased mortality. Utilization of evidence-based protocols by health care providers to identify older adults at risk of falling is limited, and rates of participation by older adults in prevention activities is low. Because of nursing's increasing role in caring for older adults, development of fall prevention education for nursing students would result in increased awareness of the need for fall prevention in community-dwelling older adults and increased access of older adults to falls risk assessment. There is a need to extend research to inform teaching and learning strategies for fall prevention. After pretesting, a convenience sample of 52 undergraduate nursing students and 22 graduate nursing students completed an online education program and performed a falls risk assessment on an older adult. After completing the clinical assignment, students completed a posttest and self-efficacy survey. Data were analyzed using multivariate statistical tests. Results revealed an increase in knowledge and student self-reporting of efficacy of fall risk assessment skills for the older adult population. This study suggests that nursing students acquired the necessary knowledge and self-efficacy for assessing fall risk of older adults through the combination of an online learning module and participating in actual fall risk assessment of an older adult.

Concerning ethical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeckle, F.

1991-01-01

After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

Ecological risk assessment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

2007-01-01

Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

Psychometric properties of the Blood-borne Virus Transmission Risk Assessment Questionnaire (BBV-TRAQ).

Science.gov (United States)

Fry, Craig L; Lintzeris, Nick

2003-02-01

To develop a standard measure of blood-borne virus transmission risk behaviour, and examine the underlying psychometric properties. The Blood-borne Virus Transmission Risk Assessment Questionnaire (BBV-TRAQ) was developed over three consecutive phases of the original BBV-TRAQ study in adherence to classical scale development procedures, culminating in the recruitment of a development sample of current injecting drug users via convenience and snowball sampling. Needle and syringe programmes (NSPs), medical clinics, alcohol/drug agencies, peer-based and outreach organizations across inner and outer metropolitan Melbourne. Two hundred and nine current injecting drug users. The mean age was 27 years, 68% were male, 65% unemployed, 36% with prison history and 25% in methadone maintenance. BBV-TRAQ items cover specific injecting, sexual and skin penetration risk practices. BBV-TRAQ characteristics were assessed via measures of internal and test-retest reliability; collateral validation; and principal components analyses. The BBV-TRAQ has satisfactory psychometric properties. Internal (a=0.87), test-retest (r=0.84) and inter-observer reliability results were high, suggesting that the instrument provides a reliable measure of BBV risk behaviour and is reliable over time and across interviewers. A principal components analysis with varimax rotation produced a parsimonious factor solution despite modest communality, and indicated that three factors (injecting, sex and skin penetration/hygiene risks) are required to describe BBV risk behaviour. The BBV-TRAQ is reliable and represents the first risk assessment tool to incorporate sufficient coverage of injecting, sex and other skin penetration risk practices to be considered truly content valid. The questionnaire is indicated for use in addictions research, clinical, peer education and BBV risk behaviour surveillance settings.

Assessment of natural radioactivity and radiation hazard indices in different soil samples from Assiut governorate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Issa, S.A.M.; Uosif, M.A.M.; Hefni, M.A.; El-Kamel, A.H; Nesreen, A.A.

2013-01-01

Natural radioactive materials under certain conditions can reach hazard radiological levels. So, it becomes necessary to study the natural radioactivity levels in soil to assess the dose for the population in order to know the health risks and to have a baseline for future changes in the environmental radioactivity due to human activities. Determine the radioactivity concentration of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K in surface and 20 cm soil samples collected beside Assiut fertilizer plant, Assiut government in south Upper Egypt, to assess their contribution to the external dose exposure. The contents of natural radionuclides 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K were measured in investigated samples by using gamma spectrometry [NaI (Tl) 3”x 3”]. The total absorbed dose rate, annual effective dose rate, radium equivalent, excess lifetime cancer risk and the external hazard index, which resulted from the natural radionuclides in soil, were calculated

Core sampling system spare parts assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walter, E.J.

1995-01-01

Soon, there will be 4 independent core sampling systems obtaining samples from the underground tanks. It is desirable that these systems be available for sampling during the next 2 years. This assessment was prepared to evaluate the adequacy of the spare parts identified for the core sampling system and to provide recommendations that may remediate overages or inadequacies of spare parts

Assessment of dust sampling methods for the study of cultivable-microorganism exposure in stables.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Normand, A.C.; Vacheyrou, M.; Sudre, B.; Heederik, D.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/072910542; Piarroux, R.

2009-01-01

Studies have shown a link between living on a farm, exposure to microbial components (e.g., endotoxins or beta-d-glucans), and a lower risk for allergic diseases and asthma. Due to the lack of validated sampling methods, studies of asthma and atopy have not relied on exposure assessment based on

Health Risk Assessment and DNA Damage of Volatile Organic Compounds in Car Painting Houses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patpida Siripongpokin

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Car painters who work near volatile organic compounds (VOCs sources, including paints, solvents and painting processes may be exposed to highly elevated VOCs levels. This study investigates air samples from car painting houses in Thailand to evaluate the health risks following inhalation exposure. Personal air samplings were obtained at nine garages in Phitsanulok, Thailand from June to September 2012. The concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes, and styrene in the air workplaces were significantly higher than in a control group of office workers (p < 0.05. Toluene, xylene and ethylbenzene were the most abundant species. However, all VOCs in these air samples were lower than TWA limit of Thailand and the OSHA standard. The lifetime cancer and non-cancer risks for the workers exposed to VOCs were also assessed. The average lifetime cancer risk was 41.0 (38.2-47.2 per million, which is in the acceptable risk. The average lifetime non-cancer risk, the HI, was 0.962 (0.643-1.397, which is well below the reference hazard level. Urine samples, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed for VOCs metabolites, including t,t muconic acid, hippuric acid, mandelic acid and m-hippuric acid, demonstrate that the average levels of metabolites in car painters and in controls were close. All VOCs metabolites in urine samples were lower than BEI of ACGIH standard. Blood samples, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed by single cell gel electrophoresis (comet assay. The DNA damage, assessed by tail moment, demonstrates that the average of tail moment in car painters were significantly higher than in the controls (p < 0.05.

Assessing uncertainty and risk in exploited marine populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fogarty, M.J.; Mayo, R.K.; O'Brien, L.; Serchuk, F.M.; Rosenberg, A.A.

1996-01-01

The assessment and management of exploited fish and invertebrate populations is subject to several types of uncertainty. This uncertainty translates into risk to the population in the development and implementation of fishery management advice. Here, we define risk as the probability that exploitation rates will exceed a threshold level where long term sustainability of the stock is threatened. We distinguish among several sources of error or uncertainty due to (a) stochasticity in demographic rates and processes, particularly in survival rates during the early fife stages; (b) measurement error resulting from sampling variation in the determination of population parameters or in model estimation; and (c) the lack of complete information on population and ecosystem dynamics. The first represents a form of aleatory uncertainty while the latter two factors represent forms of epistemic uncertainty. To illustrate these points, we evaluate the recent status of the Georges Bank cod stock in a risk assessment framework. Short term stochastic projections are made accounting for uncertainty in population size and for random variability in the number of young surviving to enter the fishery. We show that recent declines in this cod stock can be attributed to exploitation rates that have substantially exceeded sustainable levels

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2001-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

Caries risk assessment in children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, S

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

Caffeine and paraxanthine in aquatic systems: Global exposure distributions and probabilistic risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Gil, J L; Cáceres, N; Dafouz, R; Valcárcel, Y

2018-01-15

This study presents one of the most complete applications of probabilistic methodologies to the risk assessment of emerging contaminants. Perhaps the most data-rich of these compounds, caffeine, as well as its main metabolite (paraxanthine), were selected for this study. Information for a total of 29,132 individual caffeine and 7442 paraxanthine samples was compiled, including samples where the compounds were not detected. The inclusion of non-detect samples (as censored data) in the estimation of environmental exposure distributions (EEDs) allowed for a realistic characterization of the global presence of these compounds in aquatic systems. EEDs were compared to species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), when possible, in order to calculate joint probability curves (JPCs) to describe the risk to aquatic organisms. This way, it was determined that unacceptable environmental risk (defined as 5% of the species being potentially exposed to concentrations able to cause effects in>5% of the cases) could be expected from chronic exposure to caffeine from effluent (28.4% of the cases), surface water (6.7% of the cases) and estuary water (5.4% of the cases). Probability of exceedance of acute predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) for paraxanthine were higher than 5% for all assessed matrices except for drinking water and ground water, however no experimental effects data was available for paraxanthine, resulting in a precautionary deterministic hazard assessment for this compound. Given the chemical similarities between both compounds, real effect thresholds, and thus risk, for paraxanthine, would be expected to be close to those observed for caffeine. Negligible Human health risk from exposure to caffeine via drinking or groundwater is expected from the compiled data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

2012-12-01

Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

Bayesian inference in probabilistic risk assessment-The current state of the art

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, Dana L.; Smith, Curtis L.

2009-01-01

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches to sampling directly from the joint posterior distribution of aleatory model parameters have led to tremendous advances in Bayesian inference capability in a wide variety of fields, including probabilistic risk analysis. The advent of freely available software coupled with inexpensive computing power has catalyzed this advance. This paper examines where the risk assessment community is with respect to implementing modern computational-based Bayesian approaches to inference. Through a series of examples in different topical areas, it introduces salient concepts and illustrates the practical application of Bayesian inference via MCMC sampling to a variety of important problems

Nursing Child Assessment Satellite Training Parent-Child Interaction Scales: Comparing American and Canadian Normative and High-Risk Samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Letourneau, Nicole L; Tryphonopoulos, Panagiota D; Novick, Jason; Hart, J Martha; Giesbrecht, Gerald; Oxford, Monica L

Many nurses rely on the American Nursing Child Assessment Satellite Training (NCAST) Parent-Child Interaction (PCI) Teaching and Feeding Scales to identify and target interventions for families affected by severe/chronic stressors (e.g. postpartum depression (PPD), intimate partner violence (IPV), low-income). However, the NCAST Database that provides normative data for comparisons may not apply to Canadian families. The purpose of this study was to compare NCAST PCI scores in Canadian and American samples and to assess the reliability of the NCAST PCI Scales in Canadian samples. This secondary analysis employed independent samples t-tests (p parent-child relationships and ultimately child development. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

Science.gov (United States)

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

2013-06-01

The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

Modeling for operational event risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

Science.gov (United States)

Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

2005-03-01

One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birnbacher, D.

1991-01-01

Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2011-09-01

The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-01-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth in a Large Community Sample of Young Adult Males and Females : The TRAILS Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sijtsema, Jelle; Kretschmer, Tina; van Os, Titus

This study examined associations between the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY; Borum, Bartel, & Forth, 2002) risk and protective items, identified clusters of SAVRY items, and used these clusters to predict police contact and violence. SAVRY items were assessed in a community

The structured assessment of violence risk in youth in a large community sample of young adult males and females : The TRAILS study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sijtsema, J. J.; Kretschmer, Tina; van Os, Titus

2015-01-01

This study examined associations between the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY; Borum, Bartel, & Forth, 2002) risk and protective items, identified clusters of SAVRY items, and used these clusters to predict police contact and violence. SAVRY items were assessed in a community

Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deriot, S.

1992-10-01

This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Fielder

2018-06-01

Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

1984-01-01

Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

Assessment of metals contamination and ecological risk in ait Ammar abandoned iron mine soil, Morocco

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nouri Mohamed

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The present study is an attempt to assess the pollution intensity and corresponding ecological risk of phosphorus and metals including Cd, Cr, Cu, Zn, Pb and Fe using various indices like geo-accumulation index, enrichment factor, pollution and ecological risk index. In all, 20 surface soil samples were collected from the Ait Ammar iron mine of Oued Zem city, province of Khouribga, in central Morocco. The concentrations of heavy metals in soil samples were used to assess their potential ecological risks. According to the results of potential ecological risk index (RI, pollution index (PI, geo-accumulation index (Igeo, enrichment factor (EF, potential contamination index (Cp, contaminant factor (Cf and degree of contamination (Cd, based on the averages, considerable pollution of metals in soils of study area was observed. The consequence of the correlation matrix and principal component analysis (PCA indicated that Fe, Cu, Zn, Cr and P mainly originated from natural sources and Cd and Pb are mostly derived from anthropogenic sources. The results showed that these metals in soil were ranked by severity of ecological risk as Pb > Cd > Cu > Cr > Zn, based on their single-element indexes. In view of the potential ecological risk (RI, soils from all soil samples showed a potential ecological risk. These results will provide basic information for the improvement of soil environment management and heavy metal pollution prevention in Ait Ammar.

Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2015-04-01

Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

Knowledge of Coronary Heart Disease Risk Factors among a Community Sample in Oman; Pilot study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali A. Ammouri

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the knowledge of Omani adults regarding conventional coronary heart disease (CHD risk factors and to identify demographic variables associated with these knowledge levels. Methods: This descriptive cross-sectional pilot study was carried out among a convenience sample of 130 adults attending a health awareness fair held in a local shopping mall in Muscat, Oman, in November 2012. A modified version of the Heart Disease Facts Questionnaire in both English and Arabic was used to assess knowledge of CHD risk factors. Scores were calculated by summing the correct answers for each item (range: 0–21. Inadequate knowledge was indicated by a mean score of <70%. Descriptive and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to establish the participants’ knowledge levels and identify associated demographic variables. Results: A total of 114 subjects participated in the study (response rate: 87.7%. Of these, 69 participants (60.5% had inadequate mean CHD knowledge scores. Knowledge of CHD risk factors was significantly associated with body mass index (odds ratio [OR] = 0.739; P = 0.023, marital status (OR = 0.057; P = 0.036 and education level (OR = 9.243; P = 0.006. Conclusion: Low knowledge levels of CHD risk factors were observed among the studied community sample in Oman; this is likely to limit the participants’ ability to engage in preventative practices. These findings support the need for education programmes to enhance awareness of risk factors and prevention of CHD in Oman.

Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogata, Hiromitsu

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

Sovereign default risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

2013-01-01

We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

Risk Gambling and Personality: Results from a Representative Swedish Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Sundqvist, Kristina; Wennberg, Peter

2015-12-01

The association between personality and gambling has been explored previously. However, few studies are based on representative populations. This study aimed at examining the association between risk gambling and personality in a representative Swedish population. A random Swedish sample (N = 19,530) was screened for risk gambling using the Lie/Bet questionnaire. The study sample (N = 257) consisted of those screening positive on Lie/Bet and completing a postal questionnaire about gambling and personality (measured with the NODS-PERC and the HP5i respectively). Risk gambling was positively correlated with Negative Affectivity (a facet of Neuroticism) and Impulsivity (an inversely related facet of Conscientiousness), but all associations were weak. When taking age and gender into account, there were no differences in personality across game preference groups, though preferred game correlated with level of risk gambling. Risk gamblers scored lower than the population norm data with respect to Negative Affectivity, but risk gambling men scored higher on Impulsivity. The association between risk gambling and personality found in previous studies was corroborated in this study using a representative sample. We conclude that risk and problem gamblers should not be treated as a homogeneous group, and prevention and treatment interventions should be adapted according to differences in personality, preferred type of game and the risk potential of the games.

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

1996-01-01

A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

1987-06-01

Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

2017-08-01

Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Development of a Quantitative Framework for Regulatory Risk Assessments: Probabilistic Approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.

2003-11-01

The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point and have been based on deterministic calculations. Recently introduced Swedish regulations have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. A recent review of the overall structure of risk assessments in safety cases concluded that there are a number of decisions and assumptions in the development of a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. Regulatory understanding of these issues, potentially supported by independent calculations, is important in preparing for review of a proponent's risk assessment. One approach to evaluating risk in performance assessments is to use the concept of probability to express uncertainties, and to propagate these probabilities through the analysis. This report describes the various approaches available for undertaking such probabilistic analyses, both as a means of accounting for uncertainty in the determination of risk and more generally as a means of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The report discusses the overall nature of probabilistic analyses and how they are applied to both the calculation of risk and sensitivity analyses. Several approaches are available, including differential analysis, response surface methods and simulation. Simulation is the approach most commonly used, both in assessments for radioactive waste disposal and in other subject areas, and the report describes the key stages of this approach in detail. Decisions relating to the development of input PDFs, sampling methods (including approaches to the treatment

Risk assessment for transport operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

1990-01-01

The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

Suicide Risk Assessment in Adolescents - C-SSRS, K10, and READ

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, Ida Skytte; Larsen, Kim Juul; Horwood, John L

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Assessment and screening are often the first step in planning interventions to help adolescents at risk of suicide. Causes of suicidal thoughts and behavior are multifaceted and it is important for clinical work that assessment reflects this complexity. AIMS: To investigate whether...... a general psychological Resilience Scale for Adolescents (READ) is associated with a validated suicide rating scale (C-SSRS). METHOD: An observational study of self-reported suicidality (C-SSRS), psychological distress (K10), and resiliency (READ) in three adolescent samples: suicide clinic (N = 147...... was significantly lower in the suicide clinic sample. READ was predictive of levels of suicidality within all samples independently of general psychological distress (K10). LIMITATIONS: The study did not examine other early childhood factors that may contribute to individual resiliency or suicidality. CONCLUSION...

Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason Dunham

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

Pharmaceuticals in tap water: human health risk assessment and proposed monitoring framework in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Leung, Ho Wing; Jin, Ling; Wei, Si; Tsui, Mirabelle Mei Po; Zhou, Bingsheng; Jiao, Liping; Cheung, Pak Chuen; Chun, Yiu Kan; Murphy, Margaret Burkhardt; Lam, Paul Kwan Sing

2013-07-01

Pharmaceuticals are known to contaminate tap water worldwide, but the relevant human health risks have not been assessed in China. We monitored 32 pharmaceuticals in Chinese tap water and evaluated the life-long human health risks of exposure in order to provide information for future prioritization and risk management. We analyzed samples (n = 113) from 13 cities and compared detected concentrations with existing or newly-derived safety levels for assessing risk quotients (RQs) at different life stages, excluding the prenatal stage. We detected 17 pharmaceuticals in 89% of samples, with most detectable concentrations (92%) at risk levels, but 4 (i.e., dimetridazole, thiamphenicol, sulfamethazine, and clarithromycin) were found to have at least one life-stage RQ ≥ 0.01, especially for the infant and child life stages, and should be considered of high priority for management. We propose an indicator-based monitoring framework for providing information for source identification, water treatment effectiveness, and water safety management in China. Chinese tap water is an additional route of human exposure to pharmaceuticals, particularly for dimetridazole, although the risk to human health is low based on current toxicity data. Pharmaceutical detection and application of the proposed monitoring framework can be used for water source protection and risk management in China and elsewhere.

Evaluation of the performance of existing non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background The high burden and rising incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in resource constrained countries necessitates implementation of robust and pragmatic primary and secondary prevention strategies. Many current CVD management guidelines recommend absolute cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment as a clinically sound guide to preventive and treatment strategies. Development of non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms enable absolute risk assessment in resource constrained countries. The objective of this review is to evaluate the performance of existing non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms using the benchmarks for clinically useful CV risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Methods A literature search to identify non-laboratory based risk prediction algorithms was performed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Ovid Premier Nursing Journals Plus, and PubMed databases. The identified algorithms were evaluated using the benchmarks for clinically useful cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Results Five non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms were identified. The Gaziano and Framingham algorithms met the criteria for appropriateness of statistical methods used to derive the algorithms and endpoints. The Swedish Consultation, Framingham and Gaziano algorithms demonstrated good discrimination in derivation datasets. Only the Gaziano algorithm was externally validated where it had optimal discrimination. The Gaziano and WHO algorithms had chart formats which made them simple and user friendly for clinical application. Conclusion Both the Gaziano and Framingham non-laboratory based algorithms met most of the criteria outlined by Cooney and colleagues. External validation of the algorithms in diverse samples is needed to ascertain their performance and applicability to different populations and to enhance clinicians’ confidence in them. PMID:24373202

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

Risk assessment research and technology assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

1991-01-01

The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

Contamination and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Lake Bed Sediment of a Large Lake Scenic Area in China

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Li; Xu, Liang; Fu, Yongsheng

2016-01-01

The exposure of heavy metals to lake bed sediment of scenic areas may pose risks on aquatic ecosystems and human health, however very few studies on risk assessment have been reported for scenic areas. Accordingly, this study determined concentration levels, and assessed contamination characteristics and risks, of heavy metals in lake bed sediment of National Scenic Areas Songhuahu (NSAS) in China. The concentrations of Zn, Cr, Pb, Ni, and Cu were determined in 29 bed sediment samples. Results showed that the mean values of Zn, Cr, Pb, Ni, and Cu were 92.69, 90.73, 38.29, 46.77, and 49.44 mg/kg, respectively. Pearson correlation coefficients indicated that organic matter was a major factor influencing distribution of heavy metals. The results for enrichment factors indicated that contamination rates and anthropogenic inputs of single heavy metals decreased in the order Cu > Ni > Pb > Cr > Zn; results of Nemerow integrated pollution index suggested that 72.41% of sampling sites were exposed to low to moderately integrated pollution, and 27.59% of sampling sites were exposed to strongly integrated pollution. According to results for potential ecological risk index, ecological risks of single and all the heavy metals in bed sediment from all the sampling sites were low. Human risks were assessed with hazardous quotients, and the results suggested that exposure of heavy metals to bed sediment posed no or little risk to human health, and the pathway of ingestion significantly contributed to human health risks. PMID:27455296

Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

2013-01-01

A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

Occurrence, Distribution, and Risk Assessment of Antibiotics in a Subtropical River-Reservoir System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yihan Chen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Antibiotic pollutions in the aquatic environment have attracted widespread attention due to their ubiquitous distribution and antibacterial properties. The occurrence, distribution, and ecological risk assessment of 17 common antibiotics in this study were preformed in a vital drinking water source represented as a river-reservoir system in South China. In general, 15 antibiotics were detected at least once in the watershed, with the total concentrations of antibiotics in the water samples ranging from 193.6 to 863.3 ng/L and 115.1 to 278.2 μg/kg in the sediment samples. For the water samples, higher rain runoff may contribute to the levels of total concentration in the river system, while perennial anthropic activity associated with the usage pattern of antibiotics may be an important factor determining similar sources and release mechanisms of antibiotics in the riparian environment. Meanwhile, the reservoir system could act as a stable reactor to influence the level and composition of antibiotics exported from the river system. For the sediment samples, hydrological factor in the reservoir may influence the antibiotic distributions along with seasonal variation. Ecological risk assessment revealed that tetracycline and ciprofloxacin could pose high risks in the aquatic environment. Taken together, further investigations should be performed to elaborate the environmental behaviors of antibiotics in the river-reservoir system, especially in drinking water sources.

The MCRA model for probabilistic single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Voet, Hilko; de Boer, Waldo J; Kruisselbrink, Johannes W; Goedhart, Paul W; van der Heijden, Gerie W A M; Kennedy, Marc C; Boon, Polly E; van Klaveren, Jacob D

2015-05-01

Pesticide risk assessment is hampered by worst-case assumptions leading to overly pessimistic assessments. On the other hand, cumulative health effects of similar pesticides are often not taken into account. This paper describes models and a web-based software system developed in the European research project ACROPOLIS. The models are appropriate for both acute and chronic exposure assessments of single compounds and of multiple compounds in cumulative assessment groups. The software system MCRA (Monte Carlo Risk Assessment) is available for stakeholders in pesticide risk assessment at mcra.rivm.nl. We describe the MCRA implementation of the methods as advised in the 2012 EFSA Guidance on probabilistic modelling, as well as more refined methods developed in the ACROPOLIS project. The emphasis is on cumulative assessments. Two approaches, sample-based and compound-based, are contrasted. It is shown that additional data on agricultural use of pesticides may give more realistic risk assessments. Examples are given of model and software validation of acute and chronic assessments, using both simulated data and comparisons against the previous release of MCRA and against the standard software DEEM-FCID used by the Environmental Protection Agency in the USA. It is shown that the EFSA Guidance pessimistic model may not always give an appropriate modelling of exposure. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

1990-01-01

During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

Science.gov (United States)

Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.

1976-04-01

The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

The evolution of violence risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2014-10-01

Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Psychology Doctoral Programs: Core Competencies and a Framework for Training

OpenAIRE

Cramer, Robert J.; Johnson, Shara M.; McLaughlin, Jennifer; Rausch, Emilie M.; Conroy, Mary Alice

2013-01-01

Clinical and counseling psychology programs currently lack adequate evidence-based competency goals and training in suicide risk assessment. To begin to address this problem, this article proposes core competencies and an integrated training framework that can form the basis for training and research in this area. First, we evaluate the extent to which current training is effective in preparing trainees for suicide risk assessment. Within this discussion, sample and methodological issues are ...

Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, M.M.

2007-01-01

Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in well water from a native community of Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Balderrama-Carmona, Ana Paola; Gortáres-Moroyoqui, Pablo; Álvarez-Valencia, Luis Humberto; Castro-Espinoza, Luciano; Balderas-Cortés, José de Jesús; Mondaca-Fernández, Iram; Chaidez-Quiroz, Cristóbal; Meza-Montenegro, María Mercedes

2015-01-01

Cryptosporidium and Giardia are gastrointestinal disease-causing organisms transmitted by the fecal-oral route, zoonotic and prevalent in all socioeconomic segments with greater emphasis in rural communities. The goal of this study was to assess the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis of Potam dwellers consuming drinking water from communal well water. To achieve the goal, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was carried out as follows: (a) identification of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts in well water samples by information collection rule method, (b) assessment of exposure to healthy Potam residents, (c) dose-response modelling, and (d) risk characterization using an exponential model. All well water samples tested were positive for Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The QMRA results indicate a mean of annual risks of 99:100 (0.99) for cryptosporidiosis and 1:1 (1.0) for giardiasis. The outcome of the present study may drive decision-makers to establish an educational and treatment program to reduce the incidence of parasite-borne intestinal infection in the Potam community, and to conduct risk analysis programs in other similar rural communities in Mexico.

Science-based risk assessments for rare events in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M. K.; Camargo, S. J.; Lee, C. Y.; Allen, J. T.

2014-12-01

History shows that substantial investments in protection against any specific type of natural disaster usually occur only after (usually shortly after) that specific type of disaster has happened in a given place. This is true even when it was well known before the event that there was a significant risk that it could occur. Presumably what psychologists Kahneman and Tversky have called "availability bias" is responsible, at least in part, for these failures to act on known but out-of-sample risks. While understandable, this human tendency prepares us poorly for events which are very rare (on the time scales of human lives) and even more poorly for a changing climate, as historical records become a poorer guide. A more forward-thinking and rational approach would require scientific risk assessments that can place meaningful probabilities on events that are rare enough to be absent from the historical record, and that can account for the influences of both anthropogenic climate change and low-frequency natural climate variability. The set of tools available for doing such risk assessments is still quite limited, particularly for some of the most extreme events such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes. We will briefly assess the state of the art for these events in particular, and describe some of our ongoing research to develop new tools for quantitative risk assessment using hybrids of statistical methods and physical understanding of the hazards.

Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

2006-01-01

Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

Pesticides in the surface waters of Lake Vistonis Basin, Greece: Occurrence and environmental risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Papadakis, Emmanouil-Nikolaos; Tsaboula, Aggeliki; Kotopoulou, Athina; Kintzikoglou, Katerina; Vryzas, Zisis; Papadopoulou-Mourkidou, Euphemia

2015-12-01

A study was undertaken for the evaluation of the pesticide pollution caused by the agricultural activities in the basin of Lake Vistonis, Greece during the years 2010-2012. Water samples were collected from Lake Vistonis, four major rivers and various small streams and agriculture drainage canals. The concentration of 302 compounds was determined after solid-phase extraction of the water samples and subsequent LC-MS/MS and GC-MS/MS analysis of the extracts. Overall, herbicides were the most frequently detected pesticides (57%), followed by insecticides (28%) and fungicides (14%). In Lake Vistonis 11 pesticides were detected. Specifically, fluometuron was detected in the 75% of the samples (maximum concentration 0.088 μg/L) whereas lambda-cyhalothrin was detected in all the samples of spring 2011 and alphamethrin in all the samples of spring 2012 (maximum concentration 0.041 and 0.168 μg/L, respectively). In the rivers and drainage canals 68 pesticides were detected. Specifically, fluometuron was detected in the 53% of the samples (maximum concentration 317.6 μg/L) followed by chlorpyrifos and prometryn (16 and 13% of the samples respectively). An environmental risk assessment was performed by employing the Risk Quotient (RQ) method. The risk assessment revealed that at least one pesticide concentration led to a RQ>1 in 20% of the samples. In Lake Vistonis, alphamethrin and lambda-cyhalothrin concentrations resulted in RQ>1, whereas in the other water bodies this was mainly the result of chlorpyrifos-methyl and alphamethrin exposure. In contrast, herbicide and fungicide concentrations contributed substantially less to environmental risks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marek Burda

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

Incremental Validity Analyses of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version in a Civil Psychiatric Sample

Science.gov (United States)

Edens, John F.; Skeem, Jennifer L.; Douglas, Kevin S.

2006-01-01

This study compares two instruments frequently used to assess risk for violence, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV), in a large sample of civil psychiatric patients. Despite a strong bivariate relationship with community violence, the VRAG could not improve on the predictive validity…

Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

2013-12-01

Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

2009-01-01

Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

Science.gov (United States)

Ebner, G.

2009-04-01

Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

1994-01-01

The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

Risk assessment and nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bodansky, D.

1982-01-01

The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

Risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

1990-09-01

The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

2001-01-01

the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2013-01-01

Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

Science.gov (United States)

The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2000-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

2009-01-01

modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

Final Sampling and Analysis Plan for Background Sampling, Fort Sheridan, Illinois

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

1995-01-01

.... This Background Sampling and Analysis Plan (BSAP) is designed to address this issue through the collection of additional background samples at Fort Sheridan to support the statistical analysis and the Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA...

Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

1991-09-01

A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

CERN Document Server

Heimsch, Laura

2016-01-01

The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

2001-01-01

Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

Site remediation guided by risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

2002-01-01

'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

2006-01-01

Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Elwood, Richard W

2016-12-01

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

Science.gov (United States)

Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

2009-04-01

There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

Heavy metal contamination and risk assessment in water, paddy soil, and rice around an electroplating plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jie; Zhang, Xue-Hong; Tran, Henry; Wang, Dun-Qiu; Zhu, Yi-Nian

2011-11-01

The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of long-term electroplating industrial activities on heavy metal contamination in agricultural soils and potential health risks for local residents. Water, soil, and rice samples were collected from sites upstream (control) and downstream of the electroplating wastewater outlet. The concentrations of heavy metals were determined by an atomic absorption spectrophotometer. Fractionation and risk assessment code (RAC) were used to evaluate the environmental risks of heavy metals in soils. The health risk index (HRI) and hazard index (HI) were calculated to assess potential health risks to local populations through rice consumption. Hazardous levels of Cu, Cr, and Ni were observed in water and paddy soils at sites near the plant. According to the RAC analysis, the soils showed a high risk for Ni and a medium risk for Cu and Cr at certain sites. The rice samples were primarily contaminated with Ni, followed by Cr and Cu. HRI values >1 were not found for any heavy metal. However, HI values for adults and children were 2.075 and 1.808, respectively. Water, paddy soil, and rice from the studied area have been contaminated by Cu, Cr, and Ni. The contamination of these elements is related to the electroplating wastewater. Although no single metal poses health risks for local residents through rice consumption, the combination of several metals may threaten the health of local residents. Cu and Ni are the key components contributing to the potential health risks.

A questionnaire to measure melanoma risk, knowledge and protective behaviour: Assessing content validity in a convenience sample of Scots and Australians

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lee Amanda J

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study was to assess the content validity of a questionnaire to measure melanoma risk, knowledge and protective behaviour in a convenience sample of Scots and Australians. Australia has the highest melanoma incidence worldwide but has developed a culture of skin cancer avoidance with a long history of skin cancer primary prevention campaigns of proven effectiveness. Scotland has lower incidence, but has shown a greater rate of increase between 1985 and 2007. There is an urgent need in Scotland, therefore, to identify those groups at greatest risk and provide them with effective preventative advice. Method A self-administered postal survey was completed by four groups formed from convenience samples in two geographical locations (Northeast Scotland and Western Australia. In univariate analysis scores on personal risk, level of concern, protective behaviour, and knowledge were compared by nationality, previous skin cancer diagnosis and personally knowing someone with melanoma. Multivariate linear regression analysis modelled the influence of potential predictor variables upon each of the scores. Results 540 people completed the questionnaire, 273 Scots (50.6%. 133 (24.6% Scots and 83 (15.4% Australians previously had melanoma or non-melanoma skin cancer, whilst 120 (22.2% Scots and 190 (35.2% Australians personally knew someone with melanoma. Australians had higher knowledge (p , level of concern (p and protective behaviour (p scores than the Scottish. Australian nationality was the strongest independent predictor of a higher knowledge score (p , followed by a previous skin cancer diagnosis (p = 0.003, personal knowledge of someone with melanoma (p = 0.011, female gender (p = 0.005 and higher education status (p (R2 = 0.163. Conclusion The questionnaire detected higher levels of knowledge and skin cancer protective behaviours in Australians than in Scottish people. This was expected and supports the content

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Durango, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-02-01

This risk assessment evaluates the possibility of health and environmental risks from contaminated ground water at the uranium mill tailings site near Durango, Colorado. The former uranium processing site's contaminated soil and material were removed and placed at a disposal site located in Body Canyon, Colorado, during 1986--1991 by the US Departments of Energy's Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating the nature and extent of ground water contamination at the site. This risk assessment follows an approach similar to that used by the US Environmental Protection Agency. The first step is to determine what site-related contaminants are found in ground water samples. The next step in the risk assessment is to determine how much of these contaminants people might ingest if they got their drinking water from a well on the site. In accordance with standard practice for this type of risk assessment, the highest contaminant concentrations from the most contaminated wells are used. The risk assessment then explains the possible health problems that could result from this amount of contamination

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Durango, Colorado

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1995-02-01

This risk assessment evaluates the possibility of health and environmental risks from contaminated ground water at the uranium mill tailings site near Durango, Colorado. The former uranium processing site`s contaminated soil and material were removed and placed at a disposal site located in Body Canyon, Colorado, during 1986--1991 by the US Departments of Energy`s Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating the nature and extent of ground water contamination at the site. This risk assessment follows an approach similar to that used by the US Environmental Protection Agency. The first step is to determine what site-related contaminants are found in ground water samples. The next step in the risk assessment is to determine how much of these contaminants people might ingest if they got their drinking water from a well on the site. In accordance with standard practice for this type of risk assessment, the highest contaminant concentrations from the most contaminated wells are used. The risk assessment then explains the possible health problems that could result from this amount of contamination.

Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

Science.gov (United States)

Turturro, A; Hart, R W

1987-01-01

A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ø.J. Rødseth

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-05-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

2018-01-01

Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avila, R.

2004-01-01

A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Risk-Based Sampling: I Don't Want to Weight in Vain.

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Mark R

2015-12-01

Recently, there has been considerable interest in developing risk-based sampling for food safety and animal and plant health for efficient allocation of inspection and surveillance resources. The problem of risk-based sampling allocation presents a challenge similar to financial portfolio analysis. Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for modern portfolio theory based on mean-variance optimization. However, a persistent challenge in implementing portfolio optimization is the problem of estimation error, leading to false "optimal" portfolios and unstable asset weights. In some cases, portfolio diversification based on simple heuristics (e.g., equal allocation) has better out-of-sample performance than complex portfolio optimization methods due to estimation uncertainty. Even for portfolios with a modest number of assets, the estimation window required for true optimization may imply an implausibly long stationary period. The implications for risk-based sampling are illustrated by a simple simulation model of lot inspection for a small, heterogeneous group of producers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Risk assessment in support of plant health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

2012-01-01

environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, W Jon

2007-03-01

Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

Contamination risk of stable isotope samples during milling.

Science.gov (United States)

Isaac-Renton, M; Schneider, L; Treydte, K

2016-07-15

Isotope analysis of wood is an important tool in dendrochronology and ecophysiology. Prior to mass spectrometry analysis, wood must be homogenized, and a convenient method involves a ball mill capable of milling samples directly in sample tubes. However, sample-tube plastic can contaminate wood during milling, which could lead to biological misinterpretations. We tested possible contamination of whole wood and cellulose samples during ball-mill homogenization for carbon and oxygen isotope measurements. We used a multi-factorial design with two/three steel milling balls, two sample amounts (10 mg, 40 mg), and two milling times (5 min, 10 min). We further analyzed abrasion by milling empty tubes, and measured the isotope ratios of pure contaminants. A strong risk exists for carbon isotope bias through plastic contamination: the δ(13) C value of polypropylene deviated from the control by -6.77‰. Small fibers from PTFE filter bags used during cellulose extraction also present a risk as the δ(13) C value of this plastic deviated by -5.02‰. Low sample amounts (10 mg) showed highest contamination due to increased abrasion during milling (-1.34‰), which is further concentrated by cellulose extraction (-3.38‰). Oxygen isotope measurements were unaffected. A ball mill can be used to homogenize samples within test tubes prior to oxygen isotope analysis, but not prior to carbon or radiocarbon isotope analysis. There is still a need for a fast, simple and contamination-free sample preparation procedure. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

2005-01-01

The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Michiaki

2012-01-01

This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heikkeroe, Topi

2006-01-01

This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology

A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

The impact of stigma, experience, and group referent on HIV risk assessments and HIV testing intentions in Namibia.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Rachel A; Morrison, Daniel

2006-11-01

People often perceive risks for others and themselves differently. This study examines whether personal beliefs about HIV and experience with those living with HIV influence personal risk assessments of contracting HIV in an interview sample of northern Namibians (N=400), but not others' assessments as explained by singular-distribution theory [Klar, Medding, & Sarel (1996). Nonunique invulnerability: Singular versus distributional probabilities and unrealistic optimism in comparative risk judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 229-245]. Findings indicate that personal risk perceptions decrease with more HIV stigmatizing beliefs and increase with greater experience, but that those characteristics had no impact on assessments for others' risk. The study also examines whether the size and characteristics of the referent group, peers and the general Namibian population, influence others' risk assessments. Optimistic biases for personal risk versus others' risk appear with the highest discrepancy emerging between personal and general population risk assessments. Further, we found that personal risk perceptions did not mediate the relationship between personal characteristics, beliefs and experiences, and intentions to seek HIV testing.

Assessing Local Risk of Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa Using Lot Quality Assurance Sampling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christine L Heidebrecht

Full Text Available KwaZulu-Natal (KZN has the highest burden of notified multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB and extensively drug-resistant (XDR TB cases in South Africa. A better understanding of spatial heterogeneity in the risk of drug-resistance may help to prioritize local responses.Between July 2012 and June 2013, we conducted a two-way Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS study to classify the burden of rifampicin (RIF-resistant TB among incident TB cases notified within the catchment areas of seven laboratories in two northern and one southern district of KZN. Decision rules for classification of areas as having either a high- or low-risk of RIF resistant TB (based on proportion of RIF resistance among all TB cases were based on consultation with local policy makers.We classified five areas as high-risk and two as low-risk. High-risk areas were identified in both Southern and Northern districts, with the greatest proportion of RIF resistance observed in the northernmost area, the Manguzi community situated on the Mozambique border.Our study revealed heterogeneity in the risk of RIF resistant disease among incident TB cases in KZN. This study demonstrates the potential for LQAS to detect geographic heterogeneity in areas where access to drug susceptibility testing is limited.

Assessing Local Risk of Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa Using Lot Quality Assurance Sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Heidebrecht, Christine L; Podewils, Laura J; Pym, Alexander; Mthiyane, Thuli; Cohen, Ted

2016-01-01

KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) has the highest burden of notified multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) TB cases in South Africa. A better understanding of spatial heterogeneity in the risk of drug-resistance may help to prioritize local responses. Between July 2012 and June 2013, we conducted a two-way Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) study to classify the burden of rifampicin (RIF)-resistant TB among incident TB cases notified within the catchment areas of seven laboratories in two northern and one southern district of KZN. Decision rules for classification of areas as having either a high- or low-risk of RIF resistant TB (based on proportion of RIF resistance among all TB cases) were based on consultation with local policy makers. We classified five areas as high-risk and two as low-risk. High-risk areas were identified in both Southern and Northern districts, with the greatest proportion of RIF resistance observed in the northernmost area, the Manguzi community situated on the Mozambique border. Our study revealed heterogeneity in the risk of RIF resistant disease among incident TB cases in KZN. This study demonstrates the potential for LQAS to detect geographic heterogeneity in areas where access to drug susceptibility testing is limited.

Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Segerstaahl, Boris

1989-01-01

Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iain Brown

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

Assessment of health risks of policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

2014-01-01

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

Assessment of health risks of policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

2014-09-15

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

Science.gov (United States)

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Page, D

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

A Wide Area Risk Assessment Framework for Underwater Military Munitions Response

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, K. T.; Calantoni, J.

2017-12-01

Our objective was to develop a prototype statistical framework supporting Wide Area Assessment and Remedial Investigation decisions relating to the risk of unexploded ordnance and other military munitions concentrated in underwater environments. Decision making involving underwater munitions is inherently complex due to the high degree of uncertainty in the environmental conditions that force munitions responses (burial, decay, migration, etc.) and associated risks to the public. The prototype framework provides a consistent approach to accurately delineating contaminated areas at underwater munitions sites through the estimation of most probable concentrations. We adapted existing deterministic models and environmental data services for use within statistical modules that allowed the estimation of munition concentration given historic site information and environmental attributes. Ultimately this risk surface can be used to evaluate costs associated with various remediation approaches (e.g. removal, monitoring, etc.). Unfortunately, evaluation of the assessment framework was limited due to the lack of enduser data services from munition site managers. Of the 450 U.S. sites identified as having potential contamination with underwater munitions, assessment of available munitions information (including historic firing or disposal records, and recent ground-truth munitions samples) indicated very limited information in the databases. Example data types include the most probable munition types, approximate firing / disposal dates and locations, and any supportive munition survey or sampling results. However the overall technical goal to integrate trained statistical belief networks with detailed geophysical knowledge of sites, of sensors and of the underwater environment was demonstrated and should allow probabilistic estimates of the most likely outcomes and tradeoffs while managing uncertainty associated with military munitions response.

Comparison of seven fall risk assessment tools in community-dwelling Korean older women.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Taekyoung; Xiong, Shuping

2017-03-01

This study aimed to compare seven widely used fall risk assessment tools in terms of validity and practicality, and to provide a guideline for choosing appropriate fall risk assessment tools for elderly Koreans. Sixty community-dwelling Korean older women (30 fallers and 30 matched non-fallers) were evaluated. Performance measures of all tools were compared between the faller and non-faller groups through two sample t-tests. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves were generated with odds ratios for discriminant analysis. Results showed that four tools had significant discriminative power, and the shortened version of Falls Efficacy Scale (SFES) showed excellent discriminant validity, followed by Berg Balance Scale (BBS) with acceptable discriminant validity. The Mini Balance Evaluation System Test and Timed Up and Go, however, had limited discriminant validities. In terms of practicality, SFES was also excellent. These findings suggest that SFES is the most suitable tool for assessing the fall risks of community-dwelling Korean older women, followed by BBS. Practitioner Summary: There is no general guideline on which fall risk assessment tools are suitable for community-dwelling Korean older women. This study compared seven widely used assessment tools in terms of validity and practicality. Results suggested that the short Falls Efficacy Scale is the most suitable tool, followed by Berg Balance Scale.

A method of quantitative risk assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jo, Young-Do; Ahn, Bum Jong

2005-01-01

Regulatory authorities in many countries are moving away from prescriptive approaches for keeping natural gas pipelines safe. As an alternative, risk management based on a quantitative assessment is being considered to improve the level of safety. This paper focuses on the development of a simplified method for the quantitative risk assessment for natural gas pipelines and introduces parameters of fatal length and cumulative fatal length. The fatal length is defined as the integrated fatality along the pipeline associated with hypothetical accidents. The cumulative fatal length is defined as the section of pipeline in which an accident leads to N or more fatalities. These parameters can be estimated easily by using the information of pipeline geometry and population density of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To demonstrate the proposed method, individual and societal risks for a sample pipeline have been estimated from the historical data of European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group and BG Transco. With currently acceptable criteria taken into account for individual risk, the minimum proximity of the pipeline to occupied buildings is approximately proportional to the square root of the operating pressure of the pipeline. The proposed method of quantitative risk assessment may be useful for risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, and modification of a buried pipeline

Cloud computing assessing the risks

CERN Document Server

Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

2012-01-01

Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomson, J.R.

1994-01-01

This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea ARMEAN

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

2016-01-01

Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive multipathway risk assessment of chemicals associated with recycled ("crumb") rubber in synthetic turf fields.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Michael K; Lemay, Julie C; Pacheco Shubin, Sara; Prueitt, Robyn L

2018-01-01

Thousands of synthetic turf fields in the US are regularly used by millions of individuals (particularly children and adolescents). Although many safety assessments have concluded that there are low or negligible risks related to exposure to chemicals found in the recycled rubber used to make these fields, concerns remain about the safety of this product. Existing studies of recycled rubber's potential health risks have limitations such as small sample sizes and limited evaluation of relevant exposure pathways and scenarios. Conduct a comprehensive multipathway human health risk assessment (HHRA) of exposure to chemicals found in recycled rubber. All available North American data on the chemical composition of recycled rubber, as well as air sampling data collected on or near synthetic turf fields, were identified via a literature search. Ingestion, dermal contact, and inhalation pathways were evaluated according to US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) guidance, and exposure scenarios for adults, adolescents, and children were considered. Estimated non-cancer hazards and cancer risks for all the evaluated scenarios were within US EPA guidelines. In addition, cancer risk levels for users of synthetic turf field were comparable to or lower than those associated with natural soil fields. This HHRA's results add to the growing body of literature that suggests recycled rubber infill in synthetic turf poses negligible risks to human health. This comprehensive assessment provides data that allow stakeholders to make informed decisions about installing and using these fields. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.