WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment sampling

  1. Asbestos Workshop: Sampling, Analysis, and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    1EMDQ March 2012 ASBESTOS WORKSHOP: SAMPLING, ANALYSIS, AND RISK ASSESSMENT Paul Black, PhD, Neptune and Company Ralph Perona, DABT, Neptune and...NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Neptune and Company, Inc,1435 Garrison Street, Suite 110,Denver,CO...8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 2 Presentation Objective Provide an overview of asbestos-related risk assessment: • Focus on risk from

  2. Personal gravimetric dust sampling and risk assessment.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Unsted, AD

    1996-03-01

    Full Text Available . At all the sampling sites extremely large variation in dust concentrations were measured on a day to day and shift basis. Correlation of dust concentrations between personal and stationary samples was very poor as was the correlation between quartz...

  3. Passive sampling methods for contaminated sediments: Risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Marc S; Chapman, Peter M; Allan, Ian J; Anderson, Kim A; Apitz, Sabine E; Beegan, Chris; Bridges, Todd S; Brown, Steve S; Cargill, John G; McCulloch, Megan C; Menzie, Charles A; Shine, James P; Parkerton, Thomas F

    2014-01-01

    This paper details how activity-based passive sampling methods (PSMs), which provide information on bioavailability in terms of freely dissolved contaminant concentrations (Cfree), can be used to better inform risk management decision making at multiple points in the process of assessing and managing contaminated sediment sites. PSMs can increase certainty in site investigation and management, because Cfree is a better predictor of bioavailability than total bulk sediment concentration (Ctotal) for 4 key endpoints included in conceptual site models (benthic organism toxicity, bioaccumulation, sediment flux, and water column exposures). The use of passive sampling devices (PSDs) presents challenges with respect to representative sampling for estimating average concentrations and other metrics relevant for exposure and risk assessment. These challenges can be addressed by designing studies that account for sources of variation associated with PSMs and considering appropriate spatial scales to meet study objectives. Possible applications of PSMs include: quantifying spatial and temporal trends in bioavailable contaminants, identifying and evaluating contaminant source contributions, calibrating site-specific models, and, improving weight-of-evidence based decision frameworks. PSM data can be used to assist in delineating sediment management zones based on likelihood of exposure effects, monitor remedy effectiveness, and, evaluate risk reduction after sediment treatment, disposal, or beneficial reuse after management actions. Examples are provided illustrating why PSMs and freely dissolved contaminant concentrations (Cfree) should be incorporated into contaminated sediment investigations and study designs to better focus on and understand contaminant bioavailability, more accurately estimate exposure to sediment-associated contaminants, and better inform risk management decisions. Research and communication needs for encouraging broader use are discussed. Integr

  4. Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalk, Thomas R.; Spence, Cliff A.

    2003-01-01

    A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

  5. Passive sampling methods for contaminated sediments: risk assessment and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Marc S; Chapman, Peter M; Allan, Ian J; Anderson, Kim A; Apitz, Sabine E; Beegan, Chris; Bridges, Todd S; Brown, Steve S; Cargill, John G; McCulloch, Megan C; Menzie, Charles A; Shine, James P; Parkerton, Thomas F

    2014-04-01

    This paper details how activity-based passive sampling methods (PSMs), which provide information on bioavailability in terms of freely dissolved contaminant concentrations (Cfree ), can be used to better inform risk management decision making at multiple points in the process of assessing and managing contaminated sediment sites. PSMs can increase certainty in site investigation and management, because Cfree is a better predictor of bioavailability than total bulk sediment concentration (Ctotal ) for 4 key endpoints included in conceptual site models (benthic organism toxicity, bioaccumulation, sediment flux, and water column exposures). The use of passive sampling devices (PSDs) presents challenges with respect to representative sampling for estimating average concentrations and other metrics relevant for exposure and risk assessment. These challenges can be addressed by designing studies that account for sources of variation associated with PSMs and considering appropriate spatial scales to meet study objectives. Possible applications of PSMs include: quantifying spatial and temporal trends in bioavailable contaminants, identifying and evaluating contaminant source contributions, calibrating site-specific models, and, improving weight-of-evidence based decision frameworks. PSM data can be used to assist in delineating sediment management zones based on likelihood of exposure effects, monitor remedy effectiveness, and, evaluate risk reduction after sediment treatment, disposal, or beneficial reuse after management actions. Examples are provided illustrating why PSMs and freely dissolved contaminant concentrations (Cfree ) should be incorporated into contaminated sediment investigations and study designs to better focus on and understand contaminant bioavailability, more accurately estimate exposure to sediment-associated contaminants, and better inform risk management decisions. Research and communication needs for encouraging broader use are discussed. © 2014

  6. Adaptive Sampling Algorithms for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diego Mandelli; Dan Maljovec; Bei Wang; Valerio Pascucci; Peer-Timo Bremer

    2013-09-01

    Nuclear simulations are often computationally expensive, time-consuming, and high-dimensional with respect to the number of input parameters. Thus exploring the space of all possible simulation outcomes is infeasible using finite computing resources. During simulation-based probabilistic risk analysis, it is important to discover the relationship between a potentially large number of input parameters and the output of a simulation using as few simulation trials as possible. This is a typical context for performing adaptive sampling where a few observations are obtained from the simulation, a surrogate model is built to represent the simulation space, and new samples are selected based on the model constructed. The surrogate model is then updated based on the simulation results of the sampled points. In this way, we attempt to gain the most information possible with a small number of carefully selected sampled points, limiting the number of expensive trials needed to understand features of the simulation space. We analyze the specific use case of identifying the limit surface, i.e., the boundaries in the simulation space between system failure and system success. In this study, we explore several techniques for adaptively sampling the parameter space in order to reconstruct the limit surface. We focus on several adaptive sampling schemes. First, we seek to learn a global model of the entire simulation space using prediction models or neighborhood graphs and extract the limit surface as an iso-surface of the global model. Second, we estimate the limit surface by sampling in the neighborhood of the current estimate based on topological segmentations obtained locally. Our techniques draw inspirations from topological structure known as the Morse-Smale complex. We highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using a global prediction model versus local topological view of the simulation space, comparing several different strategies for adaptive sampling in both

  7. The Structure of Self-Assessed Competencies in an Urban At-Risk Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Raymond K.; MacPhee, David; Fetsch, Robert J.; Wahler, James J.

    2000-01-01

    Compared urban at-risk children's responses on the Harter's Self-Perception Profile for Children to norms established primarily on middle class samples. Results revealed similarities and differences in how urban at-risk children assessed their competencies. The data suggest that domains of competence can differ in interpretable ways as a function…

  8. [Distribution Characteristics of Heavy Metals in Environmental Samples Around Electroplating Factories and the Health Risk Assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Peng-ran; Lei, Yong-qian; Zhou, Qiao-li; Wang, Chang; Pan, Jia-chuan

    2015-09-01

    This study aimed to investigate the pollution degree and human health risk of heavy metals in soil and air samples around electroplating factories. Soil, air and waste gas samples were collected to measure 8 heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn) in two electroplating factories, located in Baiyun district of Guangzhou city. Geoaccumulation index and USEPA Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) were respectively carried out. Results showed that concentrations of Hg and Pb in waste gas and Cr in air samples were higher than limits of the corresponding quality standards, and concentrations of Cd, Hg and Zn in soil samples reached the moderate pollution level. The HQ and HI of exposure by heavy metals in air and soil samples were both lower than 1, indicating that there was no non-carcinogen risk. CRAs and CRCr in soil samples were beyond the maximum acceptable level of carcinogen risk (10(-4)), and the contribution rate of CRCr to TCR was over 81%. CRCr, CRNi and TCR in air samples were in range of 10(-6) - 10(-4), indicating there was possibly carcinogen risk but was acceptable risk. CR values for children were higher than adults in soils, but were higher for adults in air samples. Correlation analysis revealed that concentrations of heavy metals in soils were significantly correlated with these in waste gas samples, and PCA data showed pollution sources of Cd, Hg and Zn in soils were different from other metals.

  9. A New Approach To Soil Sampling For Risk Assessment Of Nutrient Mobilisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonczyk, J. C.; Owen, G. J.; Snell, M. A.; Barber, N.; Benskin, C.; Reaney, S. M.; Haygarth, P.; Quinn, P. F.; Barker, P. A.; Aftab, A.; Burke, S.; Cleasby, W.; Surridge, B.; Perks, M. T.

    2016-12-01

    Traditionally, risks of nutrient and sediment losses from soils are assessed through a combination of field soil nutrient values on soil samples taken over the whole field and the proximity of the field to water courses. The field average nutrient concentration of the soil is used by farmers to determine fertiliser needs. These data are often used by scientists to assess the risk of nutrient losses to water course, though are not really `fit' for this purpose. The Eden Demonstration Test Catchment (http://www.edendtc.org.uk/) is a research project based in the River Eden catchment, NW UK, with the aim of cost effectively mitigating diffuse pollution from agriculture whilst maintaining agricultural productivity. Three instrumented focus catchments have been monitored since 2011, providing high resolution in-stream chemistry and ecological data, alongside some spatial data on soils, land use and nutrient inputs. An approach to mitigation was demonstrated in a small sub-catchment, where surface runoff was identified as the key drivers of nutrient losses, using a suite of runoff attenuation features. Other issues identified were management of hard- standings and soil compaction. A new approach for evaluating nutrient losses from soils is assessed in the Eden DTC project. The Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling and Prediction (SCIMAP) model is a risk-mapping framework designed to identify where in the landscape diffuse pollution is most likely to be originating (http://www.scimap.org.uk) and was used to look at the spatial pattern of erosion potential. The aim of this work was to assess if erosion potential identified through the model could be used to inform a new soil sampling strategy, to better assess risk of erosion and risk of transport of sediment-bound phosphorus. Soil samples were taken from areas with different erosion potential. The chemical analysis of these targeted samples are compared to those obtained using more traditional sampling approaches

  10. Actuarial Risk Assessment and Recidivism in a Sample of UK Intellectually Disabled Sexual Offenders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, Dan; Beech, Anthony; Markall, Helena F.; Blacker, Janine

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the effectiveness of three risk assessment instruments: Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) and the Rapid Risk of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), in predicting sexual recidivism among 27 intellectually disabled sex offenders. The overall sexual offence reconviction rate was 30%, while non-recidivists remained offence-free…

  11. RISK-ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES AND ESTABLISHING THE SIZE OF SAMPLES FOR AUDITING FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Daniel Botez

    2014-01-01

    In auditing financial statements, the procedures for the assessment of the risks and the calculation of the materiality differ from an auditor to another, by audit cabinet policy or advice professional bodies...

  12. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  13. RISK-ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES AND ESTABLISHING THE SIZE OF SAMPLES FOR AUDITING FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Botez

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In auditing financial statements, the procedures for the assessment of the risks and the calculation of the materiality differ from an auditor to another, by audit cabinet policy or advice professional bodies. All, however, have the reference International Audit Standards ISA 315 “Identifying and assessing the risks of material misstatement through understanding the entity and its environment” and ISA 320 “Materiality in planning and performing an audit”. On the basis of specific practices auditors in Romania, the article shows some laborious and examples of these aspects. Such considerations are presented evaluation of the general inherent risk, a specific inherent risk, the risk of control and the calculation of the materiality.

  14. Statistical approach for risk assessment of aflatoxin sampling plan used by manufacturers for raw shelled peanuts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandeven, Mark; Whitaker, Thomas; Slate, Andy

    2002-01-01

    Processed food manufacturers often use acceptance sampling plans to screen out lots with unacceptable levels of contamination from incoming raw material streams. Sampling plan designs are determined by specifying sample sizes, sample preparation methods, analytical test methods, and accept/reject criteria. Sampling plan performance can be indicated by plotting acceptance probability versus contamination level as an operating characteristic (OC) curve. In practice, actual plan performance depends on the level of contamination in the incoming lot stream. This level can vary considerably over time, among different crop varieties, and among locales. To better gauge plan performance, a method of coupling an OC curve and crop distributions is proposed. The method provides a precise probabilistic statement about risk and can be easily performed with commercial spreadsheet software.

  15. Perceived sanction risk, individual propensity and adolescent offending : Assessing key findings from the deterrence literature in a dutch sample

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pauwels, Lieven; Weerman, Frank; Bruinsma, Gerben; Bernasco, Wim

    Deterrence studies have shown that perceived sanction risk is related to delinquent behaviour, independent of other variables, and that this relation may be conditioned by individual propensity towards crime. The principal goal of this study is to assess these findings with data from a sample of 843

  16. Seasonal rockfall risk assessment along transportation network: a sample from Mallorca (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos, Rosa Maria; Garcia, Inmaculada; Reichenbach, Paola; Herrera, Gerardo; Rius, Joan; Aguilo, Raul; Roldan, Francisco J.

    2014-05-01

    In the literature there are numerous works focusing on rockfall risk assessment along transportation corridors which take into account several factors, including the annual average traffic volume. Few papers examine in detail examples with a strong seasonal distribution of people travelling along roads, in particular in regions with a great importance for tourism. In these areas, potential blockages along the road network can cause significant economic losses, considering not only direct costs, but also indirect ones related to a reduction in tourism arrivals, with the consequent loss of jobs and profits. In this work we present a methodology for rockfall risk assessment focusing on the reliability and applicability of the evaluation in a test site located in the island of Mallorca, a region which welcomes over 11.3 million visitors per year and where tourism represents the main source of income (83% of its GDP). The Ma-10 road (111 km), located in the north-western sector of the island along the coastal face of the Tramuntana range, has been affected by 85 rockfall events during the past 18 years, which caused repairing costs valued at approximately 2M Euro (Mateos et al., 2013). Rockfalls are triggered by heavy rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles and, for these reasons, autumn and winter can be considered as the most hazardous seasons (Mateos et al., 2012). The road has heavy traffic estimated at 7.200 vehicles per day on average, with a seasonal variation of people travelling in vehicles, the summer being most prominent- up to 6 times the average- due to the pattern of tourism arrivals. To analyse the seasonal rockfall hazard and risk along the Ma-10 road, we obtained the extent of the areas potentially subject to rockfall hazards using STONE, a physically-based rockfall simulation computer program (Guzzetti et al, 2002). The availability of historical rockfalls mapped in detail allowed checking the STONE results, and identifying a hazardous area on the southern

  17. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  18. Assessing eating disorder risk: the pivotal role of achievement anxiety, depression and female gender in non-clinical samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Frangos, Christos C

    2013-03-12

    The objective of the present study was to assess factors predicting eating disorder risk in a sample of undergraduate students. A structured questionnaire was employed on a random sample (n = 1865) consisting of the following sections: demographics, SCOFF (Sick, Control, One stone, Fat, Food) questionnaire for screening eating disorders and the Achievement Anxiety Test and the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale. The students at risk for eating disorders (SCOFF score ≥2) were 39.7%. Eating disorder risk was more frequent in females, students with divorced parents, students who lived alone, students who were seeking a romantic relationship or were married, students who were at a post-secondary vocational institute/college (private-public) educational level and who were more likely to have marks under merit level. Also, the mean scores for the psychological factors of depression, stress and anxiety were higher in students with eating disorder risk. A logistic regression model was produced depicting that depression, stress, female gender, being married and searching for a romantic relationship were risk factors of having an eating disorder risk. The suggested psychological model examined with structural equation modelling signified the role of academic anxiety as an immediate precursor of general anxiety. Hence, college populations in Greece need organized infrastructures of nutrition health services and campaigns to assist in reducing the risk of eating disorders.

  19. Assessing Eating Disorder Risk: The Pivotal Role of Achievement Anxiety, Depression and Female Gender in Non-Clinical Samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos C. Frangos

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to assess factors predicting eating disorder risk in a sample of undergraduate students. A structured questionnaire was employed on a random sample (n = 1865 consisting of the following sections: demographics, SCOFF (Sick, Control, One stone, Fat, Food questionnaire for screening eating disorders and the Achievement Anxiety Test and the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale. The students at risk for eating disorders (SCOFF score ≥2 were 39.7%. Eating disorder risk was more frequent in females, students with divorced parents, students who lived alone, students who were seeking a romantic relationship or were married, students who were at a post-secondary vocational institute/college (private-public educational level and who were more likely to have marks under merit level. Also, the mean scores for the psychological factors of depression, stress and anxiety were higher in students with eating disorder risk. A logistic regression model was produced depicting that depression, stress, female gender, being married and searching for a romantic relationship were risk factors of having an eating disorder risk. The suggested psychological model examined with structural equation modelling signified the role of academic anxiety as an immediate precursor of general anxiety. Hence, college populations in Greece need organized infrastructures of nutrition health services and campaigns to assist in reducing the risk of eating disorders.

  20. Health risk assessment of drinking arsenic-containing groundwater in Hasilpur, Pakistan: effect of sampling area, depth, and source.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabassum, Riaz Ahmad; Shahid, Muhammad; Dumat, Camille; Niazi, Nabeel Khan; Khalid, Sana; Shah, Noor Samad; Imran, Muhammad; Khalid, Samina

    2018-02-10

    Currently, several news channels and research publications have highlighted the dilemma of arsenic (As)-contaminated groundwater in Pakistan. However, there is lack of data regarding groundwater As content of various areas in Pakistan. The present study evaluated As contamination and associated health risks in previously unexplored groundwater of Hasilpur-Pakistan. Total of 61 groundwater samples were collected from different areas (rural and urban), sources (electric pump, hand pump, and tubewell) and depths (35-430 ft or 11-131 m). The water samples were analyzed for As level and other parameters such as pH, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, cations, and anions. It was found that 41% (25 out of 61) water samples contained As (≥ 5 μg/L). Out of 25 As-contaminated water samples, 13 water samples exceeded the permissible level of WHO (10 μg/L). High As contents have been found in tubewell samples and at high sampling depths (> 300 ft). The major As-contaminated groundwater in Hasilpur is found in urban areas. Furthermore, health risk and cancer risk due to As contamination were also assessed with respect to average daily dose (ADD), hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR). The values of HQ and CR of As in Hasilpur were up to 58 and 0.00231, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed a positive correlation between groundwater As contents, pH, and depth in Hasilpur. The current study proposed the proper monitoring and management of well water in Hasilpur to minimize the As-associated health hazards.

  1. Sampling of Total Mercury in Sand on Sydney Beaches and Assessment of Risk of Exposure to Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, D.; Tang, C.; Edwards, G. C.; Gan, T.; Tran, S.; Geremia, S.; Campbell, J.

    2014-12-01

    Industrial waste, sewage outfall and storm water run-off are potential anthropogenic sources of mercury to Sydney beaches. Children playing on these beaches are possibly at risk of exposure to mercury in beach sand through the ingestion pathway. As part of an investigation into this risk samples were collected from various locations along 7 of Sydney's beaches where children typically would be exposed. Samples were dried and the sand fraction (i.e. >63 µm and mercury using a Direct Mercury Analyser (DMA-80) methodology. Risk of Exposure to mercury was assessed based on published estimates of daily ingestion of soil by children and Health Canada's guideline of 105 ng Hg kg-1 BW d-1 exposure threshold. For the beaches sampled concentrations of total mercury in beach sand ranged from 0.6 to 58 ppb. The maximum concentrations of total mercury in beach sand were observed on Beach 6, in the vicinity of five storm water runoff sources. Daily mercury intake values were determined for two commonly used published values for daily ingestion of soil by children of 0.2 g soil d-1 and 1.75 g soil d-1. Results to date show the maximum daily intake calculated using an average child weight of 13 kg to be 7.8 ng Hg kg-1 BW d-1, well below the currently accepted daily intake threshold of 105 ng Hg kg-1 BW d-1.

  2. Assessment of region, farming system, irrigation source and sampling time as food safety risk factors for tomatoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagadala, Sivaranjani; Marine, Sasha C; Micallef, Shirley A; Wang, Fei; Pahl, Donna M; Melendez, Meredith V; Kline, Wesley L; Oni, Ruth A; Walsh, Christopher S; Everts, Kathryne L; Buchanan, Robert L

    2015-03-02

    In the mid-Atlantic region of the United States, small- and medium-sized farmers use varied farm management methods and water sources to produce tomatoes. It is unclear whether these practices affect the food safety risk for tomatoes. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence, and assess risk factors for Salmonella enterica, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and bacterial indicators in pre-harvest tomatoes and their production areas. A total of 24 organic and conventional, small- to medium-sized farms were sampled for six weeks in Maryland (MD), Delaware (DE) and New Jersey (NJ) between July and September 2012, and analyzed for indicator bacteria, Salmonella and STEC. A total of 422 samples--tomato fruit, irrigation water, compost, field soil and pond sediment samples--were collected, 259 of which were tomato samples. A low level of Salmonella-specific invA and Shiga toxin genes (stx1 or stx2) were detected, but no Salmonella or STEC isolates were recovered. Of the 422 samples analyzed, 9.5% were positive for generic E. coli, found in 5.4% (n=259) of tomato fruits, 22.5% (n=102) of irrigation water, 8.9% (n=45) of soil, 3/9 of pond sediment and 0/7 of compost samples. For tomato fruit, farming system (organic versus conventional) was not a significant factor for levels of indicator bacteria. However, the total number of organic tomato samples positive for generic E. coli (1.6%; 2/129) was significantly lower than for conventional tomatoes (6.9% (9/130); (χ(2) (1)=4.60, p=0.032)). Region was a significant factor for levels of Total Coliforms (TC) (p=0.046), although differences were marginal, with western MD having the highest TC counts (2.6 log CFU/g) and NJ having the lowest (2.0 log CFU/g). Tomatoes touching the ground or plastic mulch harbored significantly higher levels of TC compared to vine tomatoes, signaling a potential risk factor. Source of irrigation water was a significant factor for all indicator bacteria (pfactors contributing

  3. [Occupational exposure to sevoflurane in pediatric operating rooms: the multi-point sampling method for risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaffina, S; Camisa, V; Poscia, A; Tucci, M G; Montaldi, V; Cerabona, V; Wachocka, M; Moscato, U

    2012-01-01

    Several studies have shown that occupational exposure to anesthetic gases might be higher during pediatric surgery, probably due to the increased use of inhalational induction techniques. Our study aims to assess the level of exposure to sevoflurane in two rooms of pediatric surgery, using multi-point sampling method for environmental monitoring. The gas concentrations as well as its dispersion were measured in strategic points in the rooms for a total of 44 surgical interventions. Although the average of these concentrations has been rather low (1.32, SD +/- 1:55 ppm), the results obtained have documented a significant distribution kinetics difference inside the rooms as function of multiple factors among which there were the anesthetic technique used and the team involved. Therefore the method described allows to correctly analyze the spread of anesthetic gases and suggests a different risk stratification which may be dependent on the professional work.

  4. A Survey of occurrence of toxogenic fungi and mycotoxins in pig feed samples-Use in evaluation of risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragan Milicevic

    Full Text Available In order to assess of risk assessment, the aim of this paper was to provide good and detailed insight into the level of contamination of complete feedmixes intended for fattening swine from mycotoxin-producing fungi and mycotoxins (n=18. Isolation and quantitative enumeration of fungal propagules were done on solid media using the standard microbiological procedure. These plates were incubated the number of colonies was determined and thent on the basis of characteristic colonies and microscopic analysis was performed to identify genera and species of moulds. Isolates identified as Aspergillus and Penicillium species were subjected to molecular characterization of the presence of genes responsible for the synthesis of OTA (polyketide synthase gene-PKS. Total fungal counts (CFU/g ranged from 0,5x105 do 4x106. From a total samples analysed, seven samples had fungal counts higher than the limit established by Serbian regulations (3x105. During a mycological analysis of complete feedmixes intended for fattening swine, a total of six genera and 14 species of moulds were identified of which the most frequent one was of the genus Penicillium (94,4% while the moulds from Fusarium genere isolated in 55,5% and Paecilomyces in 44,4% of the samples from investigated localities. Other fungi from the genera Aspergillus (22%, Mycor (11,1% and Alternaria (5,5% were represented in a less amount. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR is a set of 18 isolates of the DNA belonging to families Penicillium and Aspergillus. The sequences of PCR reaction products in three samples were compared with nucleotide sequences of genes for poliketid synthase (PKS from Penicillium species and found that the samples possess PKS sequence. The traditional methods for identification of ochratoxin-producing fungi are time-consuming and labor-intensive. Rapid and specific detection of ochratoxinproducing fungi is important for ensuring microbiological quality and safety of feed and food

  5. Evaluation of spot and passive sampling for monitoring, flux estimation and risk assessment of pesticides within the constraints of a typical regulatory monitoring scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zulin; Troldborg, Mads; Yates, Kyari; Osprey, Mark; Kerr, Christine; Hallett, Paul D; Baggaley, Nikki; Rhind, Stewart M; Dawson, Julian J C; Hough, Rupert L

    2016-11-01

    In many agricultural catchments of Europe and North America, pesticides occur at generally low concentrations with significant temporal variation. This poses several challenges for both monitoring and understanding ecological risks/impacts of these chemicals. This study aimed to compare the performance of passive and spot sampling strategies given the constraints of typical regulatory monitoring. Nine pesticides were investigated in a river currently undergoing regulatory monitoring (River Ugie, Scotland). Within this regulatory framework, spot and passive sampling were undertaken to understand spatiotemporal occurrence, mass loads and ecological risks. All the target pesticides were detected in water by both sampling strategies. Chlorotoluron was observed to be the dominant pesticide by both spot (maximum: 111.8ng/l, mean: 9.35ng/l) and passive sampling (maximum: 39.24ng/l, mean: 4.76ng/l). The annual pesticide loads were estimated to be 2735g and 1837g based on the spot and passive sampling data, respectively. The spatiotemporal trend suggested that agricultural activities were the primary source of the compounds with variability in loads explained in large by timing of pesticide applications and rainfall. The risk assessment showed chlorotoluron and chlorpyrifos posed the highest ecological risks with 23% of the chlorotoluron spot samples and 36% of the chlorpyrifos passive samples resulting in a Risk Quotient greater than 0.1. This suggests that mitigation measures might need to be taken to reduce the input of pesticides into the river. The overall comparison of the two sampling strategies supported the hypothesis that passive sampling tends to integrate the contaminants over a period of exposure and allows quantification of contamination at low concentration. The results suggested that within a regulatory monitoring context passive sampling was more suitable for flux estimation and risk assessment of trace contaminants which cannot be diagnosed by spot

  6. Periodontal risk assessment model in a sample of regular and irregular compliers under maintenance therapy: a 3-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Fernando Oliveira; Cota, Luís Otávio Miranda; Lages, Eugênio José Pereira; Lima Oliveira, Ana Paula; Cortelli, Sheila Cavalca; Cortelli, José Roberto; Lorentz, Telma Campos Medeiros; Costa, José Eustáquio

    2012-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the association of the periodontal risk assessment (PRA) model with the recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss during periodontal maintenance therapy (PMT). In a prospective PMT program, 75 regular complier (RC) and 89 erratic complier (EC) patients were selected. A periodontal examination and PRA were performed after active periodontal therapy and after 3 years of PMT. Risk profiles (low, moderate, or high) of participants were evaluated, and the recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. RCs showed less recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss than ECs (P periodontitis recurrence in RCs and ECs were 2.7% and 3.4%, respectively, for the moderate-risk profile and 6.7% and 11.2%, respectively, for the high-risk profile. During PMT, 49 teeth (0.65 ± 1.4 teeth per participant) were lost in the RC group, and 70 teeth (0.78 ± 2.1 teeth per participant) were lost in the EC group. High-risk profile participants showed more recurrence of periodontitis and lost significantly more teeth than did participants with moderate- or low-risk profiles in RC and EC groups (P periodontitis and tooth loss. RCs had less recurrence of periodontitis and less tooth loss. The PRA model can be useful in particularizing the risk of patients and adjusting recall intervals.

  7. Assessing Local Risk of Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa Using Lot Quality Assurance Sampling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine L Heidebrecht

    Full Text Available KwaZulu-Natal (KZN has the highest burden of notified multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB and extensively drug-resistant (XDR TB cases in South Africa. A better understanding of spatial heterogeneity in the risk of drug-resistance may help to prioritize local responses.Between July 2012 and June 2013, we conducted a two-way Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS study to classify the burden of rifampicin (RIF-resistant TB among incident TB cases notified within the catchment areas of seven laboratories in two northern and one southern district of KZN. Decision rules for classification of areas as having either a high- or low-risk of RIF resistant TB (based on proportion of RIF resistance among all TB cases were based on consultation with local policy makers.We classified five areas as high-risk and two as low-risk. High-risk areas were identified in both Southern and Northern districts, with the greatest proportion of RIF resistance observed in the northernmost area, the Manguzi community situated on the Mozambique border.Our study revealed heterogeneity in the risk of RIF resistant disease among incident TB cases in KZN. This study demonstrates the potential for LQAS to detect geographic heterogeneity in areas where access to drug susceptibility testing is limited.

  8. Assessing causality in associations between cannabis use and schizophrenia risk: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gage, S H; Jones, H J; Burgess, S; Bowden, J; Davey Smith, G; Zammit, S; Munafò, M R

    2017-04-01

    Observational associations between cannabis and schizophrenia are well documented, but ascertaining causation is more challenging. We used Mendelian randomization (MR), utilizing publicly available data as a method for ascertaining causation from observational data. We performed bi-directional two-sample MR using summary-level genome-wide data from the International Cannabis Consortium (ICC) and the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC2). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with cannabis initiation (p schizophrenia (p cannabis initiation on risk of schizophrenia [odds ratio (OR) 1.04 per doubling odds of cannabis initiation, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.07, p = 0.019]. There was strong evidence consistent with a causal effect of schizophrenia risk on likelihood of cannabis initiation (OR 1.10 per doubling of the odds of schizophrenia, 95% CI 1.05-1.14, p = 2.64 × 10-5). Findings were as predicted for the negative control (height: OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.01, p = 0.90) but weaker than predicted for the positive control (years in education: OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.97-1.00, p = 0.066) analyses. Our results provide some that cannabis initiation increases the risk of schizophrenia, although the size of the causal estimate is small. We find stronger evidence that schizophrenia risk predicts cannabis initiation, possibly as genetic instruments for schizophrenia are stronger than for cannabis initiation.

  9. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. ... at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed by the CDC and get a personalized ...

  10. Assessment of balance and risk for falls in a sample of community-dwelling adults aged 65 and older

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colonvega Makasha

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Falls are a major health concern for older adults and their impact is a significant public health problem. The chief modifiable risk factors for falls in community-dwellers are psychotropic drugs, polypharmacy, environmental hazards, poor vision, lower extremity impairments, and balance impairments. This study focused on balance impairments. Its purpose was to assess the feasibility of recruiting older adults with possible balance problems for research conducted at a chiropractic research center, and to explore the utility of several widely used balance instruments for future studies of the effect of chiropractic care on balance in older adults. Methods This descriptive study was conducted from September through December 2004. Participants were recruited through a variety of outreach methods, and all were provided with an educational intervention. Data were collected at each of two visits through questionnaires, interviews, and physical examinations. Balance was assessed on both visits using the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABCS, the Berg Balance Scale (BBS, and the One Leg Standing Test (OLST. Results A total of 101 participants enrolled in the study. Advertising in the local senior newspaper was the most effective method of recruitment (46%. The majority of our participants were white (86% females (67%. About one third (32% of participants had a baseline BBS score below 46, the cut-off point for predicting risk of falling. A mean improvement in BBS scores of 1.7 points was observed on the second visit. For the subgroup with baseline scores below 46, the mean change was 4.5 points, but the group mean remained below 46 (42.5. Conclusion Recruitment of community-dwelling seniors for fall-related research conducted at a chiropractic research center appears feasible, and the most successful recruitment strategies for this center appeared to be a combination of targeted newspaper ads and personal contact through

  11. Assessment of balance and risk for falls in a sample of community-dwelling adults aged 65 and older

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawk, Cheryl; Hyland, John K; Rupert, Ronald; Colonvega, Makasha; Hall, Stephanie

    2006-01-01

    Background Falls are a major health concern for older adults and their impact is a significant public health problem. The chief modifiable risk factors for falls in community-dwellers are psychotropic drugs, polypharmacy, environmental hazards, poor vision, lower extremity impairments, and balance impairments. This study focused on balance impairments. Its purpose was to assess the feasibility of recruiting older adults with possible balance problems for research conducted at a chiropractic research center, and to explore the utility of several widely used balance instruments for future studies of the effect of chiropractic care on balance in older adults. Methods This descriptive study was conducted from September through December 2004. Participants were recruited through a variety of outreach methods, and all were provided with an educational intervention. Data were collected at each of two visits through questionnaires, interviews, and physical examinations. Balance was assessed on both visits using the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABCS), the Berg Balance Scale (BBS), and the One Leg Standing Test (OLST). Results A total of 101 participants enrolled in the study. Advertising in the local senior newspaper was the most effective method of recruitment (46%). The majority of our participants were white (86%) females (67%). About one third (32%) of participants had a baseline BBS score below 46, the cut-off point for predicting risk of falling. A mean improvement in BBS scores of 1.7 points was observed on the second visit. For the subgroup with baseline scores below 46, the mean change was 4.5 points, but the group mean remained below 46 (42.5). Conclusion Recruitment of community-dwelling seniors for fall-related research conducted at a chiropractic research center appears feasible, and the most successful recruitment strategies for this center appeared to be a combination of targeted newspaper ads and personal contact through senior centers. The

  12. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  13. The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth in a large community sample of young adult males and females: The TRAILS study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sijtsema, Jelle J; Kretschmer, Tina; van Os, Titus

    2015-06-01

    This study examined associations between the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY; Borum, Bartel, & Forth, 2002) risk and protective items, identified clusters of SAVRY items, and used these clusters to predict police contact and violence. SAVRY items were assessed in a community sample of adolescent boys and girls (N = 963, 46.5% boys) via self-, parent, and teacher reports at ages 11 and 13.5 as part of a longitudinal cohort study. Police contact and violence were assessed at age 19. Correlations between risk and protective items and police contact and violence were largely similar in boys and girls, though there were some differences with regard to outcome measure. Principal factor analysis on the SAVRY items yielded a 2-factor model, distinguishing between History of Violence/Dysregulation and Social Support factors. Follow-up analyses showed incremental validity of the Social Support factor over and beyond the History of Violence/Dysregulation factor and sex in the prediction of violence. The findings provide new insights into the SAVRY factor structure and show that the SAVRY was able to predict violence in a community sample of adolescents over a period of 4 to 7 years. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  15. Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

  16. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  17. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  18. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  19. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  20. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  1. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  2. Heavy metal accumulation in soils, plants, and hair samples: an assessment of heavy metal exposure risks from the consumption of vegetables grown on soils previously irrigated with wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massaquoi, Lamin Daddy; Ma, Hui; Liu, Xue Hui; Han, Peng Yu; Zuo, Shu-Mei; Hua, Zhong-Xian; Liu, Dian-Wu

    2015-12-01

    It is common knowledge that soils irrigated with wastewater accumulate heavy metals more than those irrigated with cleaner water sources. However, little is known on metal concentrations in soils and cultivars after the cessation of wastewater use. This study assessed the accumulation and health risk of heavy metals 3 years post-wastewater irrigation in soils, vegetables, and farmers' hair. Soils, vegetables, and hair samples were collected from villages previously irrigating with wastewater (experimental villages) and villages with no history of wastewater irrigation (control villages). Soil samples were digested in a mixture of HCL/HNO3/HCLO4/HF. Plants and hair samples were digested in HNO3/HCLO4 mixture. Inductive coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometer (ICP-OES) was used to determine metal concentrations of digested extracts. Study results indicate a persistence of heavy metal concentration in soils and plants from farms previously irrigated with wastewater. In addition, soils previously irrigated with wastewater were severely contaminated with cadmium. Hair metal concentrations of farmers previously irrigating with wastewater were significantly higher (P clean water, but metal concentrations in hair samples of farmers previously irrigating with wastewater were not associated with current soil metal concentrations. The study concludes that there is a persistence of heavy metals in soils and plants previously irrigated with wastewater, but high metal concentrations in hair samples of farmers cannot be associated with current soil metal concentrations.

  3. Assessing the Risk Factors of Cyber and Mobile Phone Bullying Victimization in a Nationally Representative Sample of Singapore Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Thomas J; Fitzgerald, Sarah; Bossler, Adam M; Chee, Grace; Ng, Esther

    2016-04-01

    This study utilized routine activity theory to examine the relationships between online behaviors, target suitability, and cyber and mobile phone-based bullying victimization in a nationally representative sample of youth from nine schools across Singapore. Key measures in all three categories-access to technology, online routine behaviors, and target suitability-were significant predictors of both forms of bullying victimization. In particular, females and victims of physical bullying were more likely to experience both forms of victimization. Access to technology and online routine behaviors predicted cyber and mobile phone-based bullying victimization differently. These findings demonstrate that routine activity theory is a viable framework to understand online bullying in non-Western nations, consistent with the existing literature on Western nations. © The Author(s) 2014.

  4. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  5. Assessment of high-risk human papillomavirus infections using clinician- and self-collected cervical sampling methods in rural women from far western Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Derek C; Bhatta, Madhav P; Smith, Jennifer S; Kempf, Mirjam-Colette; Broker, Thomas R; Vermund, Sten H; Chamot, Eric; Aryal, Shilu; Lhaki, Pema; Shrestha, Sadeep

    2014-01-01

    Nepal has one of the highest cervical cancer rates in South Asia. Only a few studies in populations from urban areas have investigated type specific distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV) in Nepali women. Data on high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) types are not currently available for rural populations in Nepal. We aimed to assess the distribution of HR- HPV among rural Nepali women while assessing self-collected and clinician-collected cervico-vaginal specimens as sample collection methods for HPV screening. Study participants were recruited during a health camp conducted by Nepal Fertility Care Center in Achham District of rural far western Nepal. Women of reproductive age completed a socio-demographic and clinical questionnaire, and provided two specimens; one cervical-vaginal specimen using a self-collection method and another cervical specimen collected by health camp auxiliary nurse midwives during a pelvic examination. All samples were tested for 14 different HR-HPV mRNA and also specific for HPV16/18/45 mRNA. Of 261 women with both clinician- and self-collected cervical samples, 25 tested positive for HR-HPV, resulting in an overall HR-HPV prevalence of 9.6% (95% confidence Interval [CI]: 6.3-13.8). The overall Kappa value assessing agreement between clinician- and self-collected tests was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.43-0.81), indicating a "good" level of agreement. Abnormal cytology was reported for 8 women. One woman identified with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and 7 women with high grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL). Seven of the 8 women tested positive for HR-HPV (87.5%) in clinician-collected samples and 6 in self-collected samples (75.0%). This is the first study to assess HR-HPV among rural Nepali women. Self-collected sampling methods should be the subject of additional research in Nepal for screening HR-HPV, associated with pre-cancer lesions and cancer, in women in rural areas with limited access to health services.

  6. Assessment of high-risk human papillomavirus infections using clinician- and self-collected cervical sampling methods in rural women from far western Nepal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek C Johnson

    Full Text Available Nepal has one of the highest cervical cancer rates in South Asia. Only a few studies in populations from urban areas have investigated type specific distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV in Nepali women. Data on high-risk HPV (HR-HPV types are not currently available for rural populations in Nepal. We aimed to assess the distribution of HR- HPV among rural Nepali women while assessing self-collected and clinician-collected cervico-vaginal specimens as sample collection methods for HPV screening.Study participants were recruited during a health camp conducted by Nepal Fertility Care Center in Achham District of rural far western Nepal. Women of reproductive age completed a socio-demographic and clinical questionnaire, and provided two specimens; one cervical-vaginal specimen using a self-collection method and another cervical specimen collected by health camp auxiliary nurse midwives during a pelvic examination. All samples were tested for 14 different HR-HPV mRNA and also specific for HPV16/18/45 mRNA.Of 261 women with both clinician- and self-collected cervical samples, 25 tested positive for HR-HPV, resulting in an overall HR-HPV prevalence of 9.6% (95% confidence Interval [CI]: 6.3-13.8. The overall Kappa value assessing agreement between clinician- and self-collected tests was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.43-0.81, indicating a "good" level of agreement. Abnormal cytology was reported for 8 women. One woman identified with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC, and 7 women with high grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL. Seven of the 8 women tested positive for HR-HPV (87.5% in clinician-collected samples and 6 in self-collected samples (75.0%.This is the first study to assess HR-HPV among rural Nepali women. Self-collected sampling methods should be the subject of additional research in Nepal for screening HR-HPV, associated with pre-cancer lesions and cancer, in women in rural areas with limited access to health services.

  7. Public Risk Assessment Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  8. Pollution and health risk assessment of industrial and residential area based on metal and metalloids contents in soil and sediment samples from and around the petrochemical industry, Serbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Relic, Dubravka; Sakan, Sanja; Andjelkovic, Ivan; Djordjevic, Dragana

    2017-04-01

    Within this study the investigation of pollution state of metal and metalloids contamination in soils and sediments samples of the petrochemical and nearby residential area is present. The pseudo-total concentrations of Ba, Cd, Co, Cu, Cr, Mn, Ni, Pb, V, Zn, As, Hg, and Se were monitored with ICP/OES. The pollution indices applied in this work, such as the enrichment factor, the pollution load index, the total enrichment factor, and the ecological risk index showed that some of the soil and sediment samples were highly polluted by Hg, Ba, Pb, Cd, Cr Cu and Zn. The highest pollution indices were calculated for Hg in samples from the petrochemical area: chloralkali plant, electrolysis factory, mercury disposal area, and in samples from the waste channel. The pollution indices of the samples from the residential area indicated that this area is not polluted by investigated elements. Besides the pollution indices, the metal and metalloids concentrations were used in the equations for calculating the health risk criteria. We calculate no carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks for the composite worker and residential people by usage adequate equations. In analyzed samples, the no carcinogenic risks were lower than 1. The highest values of carcinogenic risk were obtained in sediment samples from the waste channel within the petrochemical industry and the metal that mostly contributes to the highest carcinogenic risk is Cr. Correlation analysis of pollution indices and carcinogenic risks calculated from the residential area samples showed good correlations while this is not the case for an industrial area.

  9. The structured assessment of violence risk in youth in a large community sample of young adult males and females : The TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sijtsema, J. J.; Kretschmer, Tina; van Os, Titus

    2015-01-01

    This study examined associations between the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY; Borum, Bartel, & Forth, 2002) risk and protective items, identified clusters of SAVRY items, and used these clusters to predict police contact and violence. SAVRY items were assessed in a community

  10. The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth in a Large Community Sample of Young Adult Males and Females : The TRAILS Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sijtsema, Jelle; Kretschmer, Tina; van Os, Titus

    This study examined associations between the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY; Borum, Bartel, & Forth, 2002) risk and protective items, identified clusters of SAVRY items, and used these clusters to predict police contact and violence. SAVRY items were assessed in a community

  11. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  12. Speciation analysis, bioavailability and risk assessment of trace metals in herbal decoctions using a combined technique of in Vitro digestion and biomembrane filtration as sample pretreatment method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shun-Xing; Lin, Lu-xiu; Lin, Jing; Zheng, Feng-Ying; Wang, Qing-Xiang; Weng, Wen

    2010-01-01

    Sample preparation is the first crucial step in the speciation analysis, bioavailability and risk assessment of trace metals in plant samples such as herb and vegetables. Two bionic technologies titled 'in vitro digestion' and 'extraction with biomembrane' were developed for pre-treatment of herbal decoction. The decoctions of Aconiteum carmichaeli and Paeonia lactiflora were digested at body temperature, at the acidity of the stomach or intestine and with inorganic and organic materials (digestive enzymes were included for whole-bionic and excluded for semi-bionic) found in the stomach or intestine. Being similar to the biomembrane between the gastrointestinal tract and blood vessels, monolayer liposome was used as a biomembrane model. Affinity-monolayer liposome metals and water-soluble metals were used for speciation analysis and bioavailability assessment of copper and zinc in herbal decoction. In the decoction of Aconiteum carmichaeli and Paeonia lactiflora, Zn was mainly absorbed in the intestine and Cu was mainly absorbed by both stomach and intestine. The safe dosage for males and females is below 257.1 g/day Aconiteum carmichaeli and 529.4 g/day Paeonia lactiflora. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Elektrometal Kaplama İşlemlerinde Hazop Risk Değerlendirmesi; Örnek Uygulaması - Hazop Risk Assessment in Electrometal Coating Process; Sample Application

    OpenAIRE

    Çetinkaya Uzun, Reyhan; UTLU, Zafer

    2015-01-01

    Elektrometal Kaplama İşlemlerinde Hazop Risk Değerlendirmesi; Örnek UygulamasıElektrometal kaplama yapan bir firma üzerinde tüm risk değerlendirme adımları uygulanmış olup risk değerlendirme yöntemlerinden ise HAZOP (Tehlike ve işletilebilme Çalışması) Risk Değerlendirme Yöntemi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Yapılan bu çalışmalarda krom kaplama tankında gerçekleşen kimyasal reaksiyonlar sonucu oluşan veya kullanılmak zorunda kalınan tehlikeli kimyasallar ve bunların çalışanlara ve çevreye verdiği etk...

  14. A questionnaire to measure melanoma risk, knowledge and protective behaviour: Assessing content validity in a convenience sample of Scots and Australians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Amanda J

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study was to assess the content validity of a questionnaire to measure melanoma risk, knowledge and protective behaviour in a convenience sample of Scots and Australians. Australia has the highest melanoma incidence worldwide but has developed a culture of skin cancer avoidance with a long history of skin cancer primary prevention campaigns of proven effectiveness. Scotland has lower incidence, but has shown a greater rate of increase between 1985 and 2007. There is an urgent need in Scotland, therefore, to identify those groups at greatest risk and provide them with effective preventative advice. Method A self-administered postal survey was completed by four groups formed from convenience samples in two geographical locations (Northeast Scotland and Western Australia. In univariate analysis scores on personal risk, level of concern, protective behaviour, and knowledge were compared by nationality, previous skin cancer diagnosis and personally knowing someone with melanoma. Multivariate linear regression analysis modelled the influence of potential predictor variables upon each of the scores. Results 540 people completed the questionnaire, 273 Scots (50.6%. 133 (24.6% Scots and 83 (15.4% Australians previously had melanoma or non-melanoma skin cancer, whilst 120 (22.2% Scots and 190 (35.2% Australians personally knew someone with melanoma. Australians had higher knowledge (p , level of concern (p and protective behaviour (p scores than the Scottish. Australian nationality was the strongest independent predictor of a higher knowledge score (p , followed by a previous skin cancer diagnosis (p = 0.003, personal knowledge of someone with melanoma (p = 0.011, female gender (p = 0.005 and higher education status (p (R2 = 0.163. Conclusion The questionnaire detected higher levels of knowledge and skin cancer protective behaviours in Australians than in Scottish people. This was expected and supports the content

  15. Cardiometabolic Risk Assessments by Body Mass Index z-Score or Waist-to-Height Ratio in a Multiethnic Sample of Sixth-Graders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry S. Kahn

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabolic risk. Among 5,482 sixth-grade students from 42 middle schools, we estimated explanatory variations (R2 and standardized beta coefficients of BMIz or WHtR for cardiometabolic risk factors: insulin resistance (HOMA-IR, lipids, blood pressures, and glucose. For each risk outcome variable, we prepared adjusted regression models for four subpopulations stratified by sex and high versus lower fatness. For HOMA-IR, R2 attributed to BMIz or WHtR was 19%–28% among high-fatness and 8%–13% among lower-fatness students. R2 for lipid variables was 4%–9% among high-fatness and 2%–7% among lower-fatness students. In the lower-fatness subpopulations, the standardized coefficients for total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol and triglycerides tended to be weaker for BMIz (0.13–0.20 than for WHtR (0.17–0.28. Among high-fatness students, BMIz and WHtR correlated with blood pressures for Hispanics and whites, but not black boys (systolic or girls (systolic and diastolic. In 11-12 year olds, assessments by WHtR can provide cardiometabolic risk estimates similar to conventional BMIz without requiring reference to a normative growth chart.

  16. Assessment of fracture risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanis, John A. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom)], E-mail: w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); McCloskey, Eugene V. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Osteoporosis Centre, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2009-09-15

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  17. Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  18. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

  19. Passive sampling approaches used for time-integrated environmental monitoring and Risk Assessment in the tropical Río Tapezco catchment in Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Frederik; Wey, Hannah; Stamm, Christian; Ruepert, Clemens; Zurbrügg, Christian; Eggen, Rik

    2017-04-01

    Highest pesticide application rates and high surface runoff potentials are found in tropical countries. Global data indicate that among these countries, Costa Rica's agriculture is one of the most pesticide intensive worldwide. After use, pesticides can be transported from the fields into surface water through heavy raining events via wash-off, leaching, surface runoff and erosion processes, or direct as point source due to poor pesticide application practices and deteriorate the water quality and impair aquatic organisms. Even if the risk of pesticide pollution is well documented in Costa Rica, comprehensive information about the diffuse and direct pesticide entry routes, their environmental behavior, and the degree of water pollution is often lacking. Generally, only grab samples are taken and time integrated methods for environmental monitoring are seldom used so far. There is a need for more time integrated data at catchment scale. Current passive sampling techniques are low-costs options that, when combined with advanced analytical screening methods, allow for a broad assessment of pesticide pollution in streams. This will lead to a better systematic understanding of the environmental fate of pesticides and to describe their impacts to non-target organisms in tropical aquatic environments in the short- and long-term. We implemented such an approach in the tropical Río Tapezco catchment in the Zarcero canton, Costa Rica. The area covers 5112 ha, ranges between an altitude of 1100 and 2200 m above sea level and receives an average annual precipitation of 2000 - 2500 mm/yr. The catchment is intensively used for the horticultural production of vegetables, potatoes and herbs and it is specially characterized by its agricultural fields with steep slopes. The area is a hot spot of pesticide use with an average application rate of about 22 kg/ha of arable land and cropping cycle. For time-integrated monitoring, the rivers of the study area were sampled at five points

  20. Biological Environmental Sampling Technologies Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    array‐based measurements that are made on carbon ink surfaces. The instrument can process a wide variety of sample types and is targeted at...from all types of surfaces and absorb unknown liquids. The Aklus Shield system can also be used to sample debris, soil, or vegetation . For this...system is already part of the selected JBTDS system. Therefore, if the InnovaPrep system was selected, it would reduce the logistical footprint of

  1. Suicide Risk Assessment in Adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Ida Skytte; Larsen, Kim Juul; Horwood, John

    2016-01-01

    Background: Assessment and screening are often the first step in planning interventions to help adolescents at risk of suicide. Causes of suicidal thoughts and behavior are multifaceted and it is important for clinical work that assessment reflects this complexity. Aim(s): To investigate whether...... a general psychological "Resilience Scale for Adolescents" (READ) is associated with a validated suicide rating scale (C-SSRS). Method: An observational study of self-reported suicidality (C-SSRS), psychological distress (K10) and resiliency (READ) in three adolescent samples: suicide clinic (N=147...

  2. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  3. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  4. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  5. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  6. A Critical Review of Research Methods Used in: ?Use of Risk Assessment Instruments to Predict Violence and Antisocial Behavior in 73 Samples Involving 24,827 People?

    OpenAIRE

    Pistone, Renee Ann

    2012-01-01

    Our society requires that experts predict incidences of violence with greater speed and accuracy. We have seen the rise in violence that is random and public. The shootings leave society wondering how could this tragedy have been prevented. Why were the warning signs ignored? This article posits that considering personality traits along with other risk assessments can help make psychologists better predictors of violent behavior.

  7. Spatial distribution and risk assessment of metals in dust based on samples from nursery and primary schools of Xi'an, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hao; Lu, Xinwei; Li, Loretta Y.

    2014-05-01

    The spatial distribution of metal (Cu, Pb, Zn, As, Ba, Co, Cr, Mn, Ni and V) concentrations in urban dust of Xi'an, China was determined using the geographical information system method on dust from nursery and primary schools. The health risk of these metals in campus dust to children was assessed based on the EPA heath risk model. The results indicate elevated metal concentrations, especially of Cu, Pb, Zn, Co, Cr and Ba, which are 1.5-10.2, 2.6-73.0, 2.1-26.5, 2.0-10.9, 1.2-10.2 and 1.1-10.4 times the background values of Shaanxi soil, respectively. Pb, Cr, Cu and Ba have similar distribution patterns. The hot-spot areas of Pb, Zn, Cu, Co, Cr and Ba are mainly associated with industrial activities and heavy traffic. Their spatial distributions in the Xi'an urban dust indicated that these metals mainly originate from vehicles and industrial activities. For As, Mn, Ni and V, natural factors are important in controlling their distributions. Health risk assessment shows that ingestion is the largest exposure route of metals in dust from nursery and primary schools to children. The mean hazard indices for non-cancer risk of all analyzed metals due to campus dust are within the safe range, while the maximum hazard indices of Pb, Cr and As are close to, or slightly higher than, safe levels. The cancer risks of As, Co, Cr and Ni to nursery and primary school children, considering only inhalation, are within the acceptable range.

  8. Children's health risk assessment based on the content of toxic metals Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn in urban soil samples of Podgorica, Montenegro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mugoša, Boban; Djurović, Dijana; Pirnat, Aleksandra; Bulat, Zorica; Barjaktarović-Labović, Snežana

    2015-09-01

    Due to their low tolerance to pollutants and hand-to-mouth pathways the health risk is very high in children's population. The aim of this study was to evaluate risk to children's health based on the content of heavy metals in urban soil samples from Podgorica, Montenegro. This study included the investigation of several toxic metals such as Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn in soil samples from public parks and playgrounds. Sampling was conducted in a period October-November, 2012. Based on cluster analysis, soil samples were divided into two groups related to similarity of metal content at examinated locations: the group I--near by recreational or residential areas of the city, and the group II--near traffic roads. Concentration of toxic metals, in urban soil samples were determined by a graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (Pb and Cd) and by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry technique after microwave digestion. Due to exposure to urban soil, non-cancerogenic index hazardous index (HI) for children was estimated using 95th percentile values of total metal concentration. The value of the total (ingestion, dermal and inhalation) HI is calculated for maximum, minimum and the average concentration of metals for children. Mean concentrations of Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn in the surface layer of the studied urban soils were 85.91 mg/kg, 2.8 mg/kg and 52.9 mg/kg and 112.5 mg/kg, respectively. Samples from group II showed higher metal content compared to group I. Urbanization and traffic are the main sources of pollution of the urban soils of Podgorica. Most of the samples (93.5%) had a high Pb content, 12.9% of the samples had a higher content of Cd, while Cu and Zn were within the limits prescribed by national legislation. At one location the level of security for lead is HI = 0.8 and very closed to maximum acceptable value of 1. It is probably the result of intensive traffic near by. All metals investigated showed relatively higher concentrations at sites

  9. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  10. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  11. Advances in stalking risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Troy E; Pathé, Michele; Ogloff, James R P

    2011-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, forensic mental health has become more concerned with the concepts of violence prevention, management, and treatment. The development of specialist tools to aid in the assessment of a range of risks reflects this concern. This article explores contemporary thinking on violence risk assessment and how this knowledge can be applied to the relatively newer field of stalking risk assessment. The role of risk state and risk status are discussed, in addition to the way that standard structured professional judgment procedures need to be adapted to reflect the variety of risks present in stalking situations. The authors go on to describe the development and format of the Stalking Risk Profile, a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for assessing risk in stalkers. Suggestions are made for future research to enhance knowledge and improve practice in the field of stalking risk assessment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  13. Assessing the detection of human papillomavirus late mRNA in liquid base cytology samples for risk stratification of cervical disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, George; Millan, David; Cuschieri, Kate; Cubie, Heather A; Graham, Sheila V

    2014-04-01

    Molecular human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is an important and developing tool for cervical disease management. However there is a requirement to develop new HPV tests that can differentiate between clinically significant and benign, clinically insignificant infection. Evidence would indicate that clinically significant infection is linked to an abortive HPV replication cycle. In particular the later stages of the replication cycle (i.e., production of late messenger (m) RNAs and proteins) appear compromised. Compared to current DNA-based tests which indicate only presence or absence of virus, detecting virus mRNAs by reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) may give a more refined insight into viral activity and by implication, clinical relevance. A novel quantitative (q)RT-PCR assay was developed for the detection of mRNAs produced late in the viral replication cycle. Initially this was validated on HPV-containing cell lines before being applied to a panel of 223 clinical cervical samples representing the cervical disease spectrum (normal to high grade). Samples were also tested by a commercial assay which detects expression of early HPV E6/E7 oncoprotein mRNAs. Late mRNAs were found in samples associated with no, low and high grade disease and did not risk-stratify HPV infection. The data reveal hidden complexities within the virus replication cycle and associated lesion development. This suggests that future mRNA tests for cervical disease may require quantitative detection of specific novel viral mRNAs. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  15. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Development of a 4-NQO toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach to enable a preliminary risk assessment of unknown genotoxic compounds detected by the Ames II test in UV/H₂O₂ water treatment samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martijn, Bram J; Van Rompay, An R; Penders, Eric J M; Alharbi, Yousif; Baggelaar, Paul K; Kruithof, Joop C; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

    2016-02-01

    An approach to enable a preliminary risk assessment of unknown genotoxic compounds formed by MP UV/H2O2 treatment of nitrate rich water, is described. Since the identity and concentration of specific genotoxic compounds is not established yet, a compound specific risk assessment cannot be performed. This limitation is circumvented by introducing a toxic equivalency factor, converting the concentration of unknown genotoxic compounds expressed by an Ames II test response into equivalent concentrations of 4-nitroquinoline oxide (4-NQO), to enable a preliminary risk assessment. Based on the obtained 4-NQO equivalent concentrations for the tested water samples and 4-NQO carcinogenicity data, an indication of the associated risk of the by MP UV/H2O2 treatment produced nitrated genotoxic compounds is obtained via the margin of exposure (MOE) approach. Based on a carcinogen study by Tang et al. (2004), a body weight of 70 kg and a drinking water consumption of 2 L per day, the 4-NQO equivalent concentration should not exceed 80 ng/L associated with a negligible risk. Application of this approach on samples from MP UV/H2O2 treated water of a full scale drinking water production facility, a 4-NQO equivalent concentration of 107 ng/L was established. These results indicate a safety concern in case this water would be distributed as drinking water without further post treatment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  18. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  19. Assessing the environmental/human risk of potential genotoxicants in water samples from lacustrine ecosystems: The case of lakes in Western Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlastos, Dimitris; Dailianis, Stefanos; Kindou, Aggeliki; Antonopoulou, Maria; Gianni, Areti; Zacharias, Ierotheos

    2017-01-01

    Lakes, representing major freshwater resources, play a crucial role for both humans and ecosystems. Based on the increasing international interest in the contamination of water resources by genotoxic compounds, the present study aimed to evaluate the genotoxic potential of surface water samples collected from the five (5) lakes (Amvrakia, Lysimachia, Ozeros, Trichonida, Kastraki) located in Aitoloakarnania regional unit (Western Greece). The genotoxic potential of surface water samples was evaluated by employing the Cytokinesis Block MicroNucleus (CBMN) assay in cultured human lymphocytes. In the former assay, lymphocytes were treated with 1, 2 and 5% (v/v) of surface water from each lake. Statistically significant differences (1.7 to 3.3 fold increase in MN frequencies vs. the control) were seen at the dose of 5% (v/v) in all studied lakes. At the dose of 2% (v/v) statistically significant differences (1.7 to 2.6 fold increase in MN frequencies vs. the control) were observed in all studied lakes except Trichonida lake. Finally, at the dose of 1% (v/v) statistically significant differences (2.3 and 2.5 fold increase in MN frequencies vs. the control) were observed in the Ozeros and Lysimachia lakes. The evaluation of the potential genotoxic effects and the analysis of the physicochemical parameters of lakes' surface water samples is a first step in our effort to evaluate the water quality, in terms of the presence and environmental/human risk of genotoxicants in the studied lake ecosystems. The present study showed for the first time the presence of genotoxic substances in surface waters of the studied lakes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  1. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  2. Accuracy assessment with complex sampling designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond L. Czaplewski

    2010-01-01

    A reliable accuracy assessment of remotely sensed geospatial data requires a sufficiently large probability sample of expensive reference data. Complex sampling designs reduce cost or increase precision, especially with regional, continental and global projects. The General Restriction (GR) Estimator and the Recursive Restriction (RR) Estimator separate a complex...

  3. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given......, and also assist industry in their ambition to design innovative yet safe foods for consumers....

  4. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  5. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    and to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be substantial enough...... to be a risk. A hazard does not necessarily constitute a risk, as efforts can be done to minimize risk by reducing the exposure. Thus, the relationship between hazard and risk must be treated cautiously. Fora robust risk assessment good data on exposure to the substance is needed and exposure data for other...... similarly acting substances are needed for assessing the risk for mixture effects. Such data may, however, often be absent. Toxicological potency, i.e. the lowest dose found to cause adverse effects, has been proposed as one of the key characteristics when evaluating safety of a substance. However, this may...

  6. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  7. Common breast cancer risk alleles and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Näslund-Koch, C; Nordestgaard, B G; Bojesen, S E

    2017-01-01

    general population were followed in Danish health registries for up to 21 years after blood sampling. After genotyping 72 breast cancer risk loci, each with 0-2 alleles, the sum for each individual was calculated. We used the simple allele sum instead of the conventional polygenic risk score...... cancer risks ≤ 1.5%. Using polygenic risk score led to similar results. CONCLUSION: Common breast cancer risk alleles are associated with incidence and mortality of breast cancer in the general population, but not with other cancers. After including breast cancer allele sum in risk assessment, 25......BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that common breast cancer risk alleles are associated with incidences of breast cancer and other cancers in the general population, and identify low risk women among those invited for screening mammography. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: 35,441 individuals from the Danish...

  8. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  9. Assessment of Hair Aluminum, Lead, and Mercury in a Sample of Autistic Egyptian Children: Environmental Risk Factors of Heavy Metals in Autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed, Farida El Baz; Zaky, Eman Ahmed; El-Sayed, Adel Bassuoni; Elhossieny, Reham Mohammed; Zahra, Sally Soliman; Salah Eldin, Waleed; Youssef, Walaa Yousef; Khaled, Rania Abdelmgeed; Youssef, Azza Mohamed

    2015-01-01

    The etiological factors involved in the etiology of autism remain elusive and controversial, but both genetic and environmental factors have been implicated. The aim of this study was to assess the levels and possible environmental risk factors and sources of exposure to mercury, lead, and aluminum in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) as compared to their matched controls. One hundred ASD children were studied in comparison to 100 controls. All participants were subjected to clinical evaluation and measurement of mercury, lead, and aluminum through hair analysis which reflects past exposure. The mean Levels of mercury, lead, and aluminum in hair of the autistic patients were significantly higher than controls. Mercury, lead, and aluminum levels were positively correlated with maternal fish consumptions, living nearby gasoline stations, and the usage of aluminum pans, respectively. Levels of mercury, lead, and aluminum in the hair of autistic children are higher than controls. Environmental exposure to these toxic heavy metals, at key times in development, may play a causal role in autism.

  10. Assessment of Hair Aluminum, Lead, and Mercury in a Sample of Autistic Egyptian Children: Environmental Risk Factors of Heavy Metals in Autism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farida El Baz Mohamed

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims. The etiological factors involved in the etiology of autism remain elusive and controversial, but both genetic and environmental factors have been implicated. The aim of this study was to assess the levels and possible environmental risk factors and sources of exposure to mercury, lead, and aluminum in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD as compared to their matched controls. Methods. One hundred ASD children were studied in comparison to 100 controls. All participants were subjected to clinical evaluation and measurement of mercury, lead, and aluminum through hair analysis which reflects past exposure. Results. The mean Levels of mercury, lead, and aluminum in hair of the autistic patients were significantly higher than controls. Mercury, lead, and aluminum levels were positively correlated with maternal fish consumptions, living nearby gasoline stations, and the usage of aluminum pans, respectively. Conclusion. Levels of mercury, lead, and aluminum in the hair of autistic children are higher than controls. Environmental exposure to these toxic heavy metals, at key times in development, may play a causal role in autism.

  11. The Violence Risk Scale: Predictive Validity and Linking Changes in Risk with Violent Recidivism in a Sample of High-Risk Offenders with Psychopathic Traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Kathy; Olver, Mark E.; Wong, Stephen C. P.

    2013-01-01

    The Violence Risk Scale (VRS) uses ratings of static and dynamic risk predictors to assess violence risk, identify targets for treatment, and assess changes in risk following treatment. The VRS was rated pre- and posttreatment on a sample of 150 males, mostly high-risk violent offenders many with psychopathic personality traits. These individuals…

  12. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  13. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  14. Options for operational risk assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dover, S.A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk assessment is a set of analytical tools that can be used to clarify possible outcomes of decisions where two different courses of action are indicated or different values are in conflict. These conflicts often arise in the management of any production or support facility. This paper outlines the options for performing risk assessments of any scope and the parameters that determine their effectiveness. It highlights the relative costs of each option, useful information developed, and limitations of the information. The paper concludes with the types of decisions that are routinely made in an operating facility and could benefit from the information generated in a risk assessment.

  15. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... and toxicity. Whereas Risk Assessment (RA) aims to identify absolute risks, LCA assess potential or relative impacts. LCA is readily applicable to nanotechnologies and several studies have been carried out, but LCA faces large problems when addressing toxic impacts of nanomaterials emitted during the life...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  16. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  17. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  18. Alcohol, Drugs, and Links to Sexual Risk Behaviors among a Sample of Virginia College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enyeart Smith, Theresa M.; Wessel, Maria T.

    2011-01-01

    This project was significant in that it administered the National College Health Risk Behavior Survey (NCHRBS), a health risk assessment, to a sample of students at three public universities in Virginia. Virginia was never included in the original or subsequent nationwide assessments using this instrument. This health risk assessment is…

  19. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  20. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  1. Nitarsone, Inorganic Arsenic, and Other Arsenic Species in Turkey Meat: Exposure and Risk Assessment Based on a 2014 U.S. Market Basket Sample

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nachman, Keeve E; Love, David C; Baron, Patrick A; Nigra, Anne E; Murko, Manuela; Raber, Georg; Francesconi, Kevin A; Navas-Acien, Ana

    ...: We characterized the impact of nitarsone use on arsenic species in turkey meat and arsenic exposures among turkey consumers, and we estimated cancer risk increases from consuming turkey treated...

  2. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  3. The risk assessment information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  4. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... know before using this tool: The Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool was designed for use by doctors and other health providers with their patients. If you are not a health ... your personal risk of colorectal cancer. (Colorectal cancer is another way ...

  5. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  6. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  7. SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF LEVEES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Rosidi

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A seismic risk assessment procedure for earth embankments and levees is presented. The procedure consists of three major elements: (1 probability of ground motion at the site, (2 probability of levee failure given a level of ground motion has occurred and (3 expected loss resulting from the failure. This paper discusses the first two elements of the risk assessment. The third element, which includes economic losses and human casualty, will not be presented herein. The ground motions for risk assessment are developed using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. A two-dimensional finite element analysis is performed to estimate the dynamic responses of levee, and the probability of levee failure is calculated using the levee fragility curve. The overall objective of the assessment is to develop an analytical tool for assessing the failure risk and the effectiveness of various levee strengthening alternatives for risk reduction. An example of the procedure, as it applies to a levee built along the perimeter of an island for flood protection and water storage, is presented. Variations in earthquake ground motion and soil and water conditions at the site are incorporated in the risk assessment. The effects of liquefaction in the foundation soils are also considered.

  8. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models....... enables the relative importance of the different factors (i.e. degree of climate change, assets value, discount rate etc.) to be determined, thus influencing the overall output of the assessment.......Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...

  9. Preconception risk assessment of infertile couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekuei, Nafisehsadat; Kazemi, Ashraf; Ehsanpur, Soheila; Beigi, Nastaran Mohammad Ali

    2013-01-01

    With regard to the importance of preconception conditions in maternal health and fertility, preconception risk assessment makes treatment trends and pregnancy outcome more successful among infertile couples. This study has tried to investigate preconception risk assessment in infertile couples. This is a descriptive analytical survey conducted on 268 subjects, selected by convenient sampling, referring to Isfahan infertility centers (Iran). The data were collected by questionnaires through interview and clients' medical records. Pre-pregnancy risk assessment including history taking (personal, familial, medical, medications, menstruation, and pregnancy), exams (physical, genital, and vital signs), and routine test requests (routine, cervix, infections, and biochemical tests) was performed in the present study. The results showed that the lowest percentage of taking a complete history was for personal history (0.4%) and the highest was for history of menstruation (100%). The lowest percentage of complete exam was for physical exam (3.4%) and the highest for genital exam (100%). With regard to laboratory assessment, the highest percentage was for routine tests (36.6%) and the lowest was for infection tests (0.4%). Based o the results of the present study, most of the risk assessment components are poorly assessed in infertile couples. With regard to the importance of infertility treatment, spending high costs and time on that, and existence of high-risk individuals as well as treatment failures, health providers should essentially pay special attention to preconception risk assessment in infertile couples in order to enhance the chance of success and promote treatment outcome.

  10. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  11. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  12. Validation and Assessment of Three Methods to Estimate 24-h Urinary Sodium Excretion from Spot Urine Samples in High-Risk Elder Patients of Stroke from the Rural Areas of Shaanxi Province.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Wenxia; Yin, Xuejun; Zhang, Ruijuan; Liu, Furong; Yang, Danrong; Fan, Yameng; Rong, Jie; Tian, Maoyi; Yu, Yan

    2017-10-11

    Background: 24-h urine collection is regarded as the "gold standard" for monitoring sodium intake at the population level, but ensuring high quality urine samples is difficult to achieve. The Kawasaki, International Study of Sodium, Potassium, and Blood Pressure (INTERSALT) and Tanaka methods have been used to estimate 24-h urinary sodium excretion from spot urine samples in some countries, but few studies have been performed to compare and validate these methods in the Chinese population. Objective: To compare and validate the Kawasaki, INTERSALT and Tanaka formulas in predicting 24-h urinary sodium excretion using spot urine samples in 365 high-risk elder patients of strokefrom the rural areas of Shaanxi province. Methods: Data were collected from a sub-sample of theSalt Substitute and Stroke Study. 365 high-risk elder patients of stroke from the rural areas of Shaanxi province participated and their spot and 24-h urine specimens were collected. The concentrations of sodium, potassium and creatinine in spot and 24-h urine samples wereanalysed. Estimated 24-h sodium excretion was predicted from spot urine concentration using the Kawasaki, INTERSALT, and Tanaka formulas. Pearson correlation coefficients and agreement by Bland-Altman method were computed for estimated and measured 24-h urinary sodium excretion. Results: The average 24-h urinary sodium excretion was 162.0 mmol/day, which representing a salt intake of 9.5 g/day. Three predictive equations had low correlation with the measured 24-h sodium excretion (r = 0.38, p h sodium excretion were observed (all p h sodium excretion. Conclusion: The Kawasaki, INTERSALT and Tanaka methods for estimation of 24-h urinary sodium excretion from spot urine specimens were inadequate for the assessment of sodium intake at the population level in high-risk elder patients of stroke from the rural areas of Shaanxi province, although the Kawasaki method was the least biased compared with the other two methods.

  13. Cardiometabolic risk assessments by body mass index z-score or waist-to-height ratio in a multiethnic sample of sixth-graders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz) referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabol...

  14. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  15. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without warning, and two- ... and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool is supported in part ...

  16. Thermal Desorption Capability Development for Enhanced On-site Health Risk Assessment: HAPSITE (registered trademark) ER Passive Sampling in the Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-07

    This report is published in the interest of scientific and technical information exchange , and its publication does not constitute the Government’s...extraction methods for Liquid Chromatography -MS (LC- MS). Additionally, TD is approximately 1000X more sensitive, requires minimal sample preparation...NEG) and an ion sputter pump (Smith 2012). Figure 2: HAPSITE® ER (left) and TD Accessory (right) 2.1.2. Stainless Steel (SS) TD Tubes Inficon’s

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  18. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  19. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  20. Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.

    2016-01-01

    Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items

  1. ASSESSING SMALL SAMPLE WAR-GAMING DATASETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. J. HURLEY

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the fundamental problems faced by military planners is the assessment of changes to force structure. An example is whether to replace an existing capability with an enhanced system. This can be done directly with a comparison of measures such as accuracy, lethality, survivability, etc. However this approach does not allow an assessment of the force multiplier effects of the proposed change. To gauge these effects, planners often turn to war-gaming. For many war-gaming experiments, it is expensive, both in terms of time and dollars, to generate a large number of sample observations. This puts a premium on the statistical methodology used to examine these small datasets. In this paper we compare the power of three tests to assess population differences: the Wald-Wolfowitz test, the Mann-Whitney U test, and re-sampling. We employ a series of Monte Carlo simulation experiments. Not unexpectedly, we find that the Mann-Whitney test performs better than the Wald-Wolfowitz test. Resampling is judged to perform slightly better than the Mann-Whitney test.

  2. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  3. Phytosanitary risk assessment of composts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Termorshuizen, A.J.; Rijn, van E.; Blok, W.J.

    2005-01-01

    Assessment of phytosanitary risks associated with application of composts in agriculture generally has focused on the sanitation (self-heating) phase during composting when most plant pathogens are inactivated due to lethal temperatures. However, a few plant pathogens are heat resistant and they may

  4. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  5. Environmental Risk Assessment Based on High-Resolution Spatial Maps of Potentially Toxic Elements Sampled on Stream Sediments of Santiago, Cape Verde

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina M. S. Cabral Pinto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Geochemical mapping is the base knowledge to identify the regions of the planet with critical contents of potentially toxic elements from either natural or anthropogenic sources. Sediments, soils and waters are the vehicles which link the inorganic environment to life through the supply of essential macro and micro nutrients. The chemical composition of surface geological materials may cause metabolic changes which may favor the occurrence of endemic diseases in humans. In order to better understand the relationships between environmental geochemistry and public health, we present environmental risk maps of some harmful elements (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn in the stream sediments of Santiago, Cape Verde, identifying the potentially harmful areas in this island. The Estimated Background Values (EBV of Cd, Co, Cr, Ni and V were found to be above the Canadian guidelines for any type of use of stream sediments and also above the target values of the Dutch and United States guidelines. The Probably Effect Concentrations (PEC, above which harmful effects are likely in sediment dwelling organisms, were found for Cr and Ni. Some associations between the geological formations of the island and the composition of stream sediments were identified and confirmed by descriptive statistics and by Principal Component Analysis (PCA. The EBV spatial distribution of the metals and the results of PCA allowed us to establish relationships between the EBV maps and the geological formations. The first two PCA modes indicate that heavy metals in Santiago stream sediments are mainly originated from weathering of underlying bedrocks. The first metal association (Co, V, Cr, and Mn; first PCA mode consists of elements enriched in basic rocks and compatible elements. The second association of variables (Zn and Cd as opposed to Ni; second PCA mode appears to be strongly controlled by the composition of alkaline volcanic rocks and pyroclastic rocks. So, the

  6. Determining sample size when assessing mean equivalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asberg, Arne; Solem, Kristine B; Mikkelsen, Gustav

    2014-11-01

    When we want to assess whether two analytical methods are equivalent, we could test if the difference between the mean results is within the specification limits of 0 ± an acceptance criterion. Testing the null hypothesis of zero difference is less interesting, and so is the sample size estimation based on testing that hypothesis. Power function curves for equivalence testing experiments are not widely available. In this paper we present power function curves to help decide on the number of measurements when testing equivalence between the means of two analytical methods. Computer simulation was used to calculate the probability that the 90% confidence interval for the difference between the means of two analytical methods would exceed the specification limits of 0 ± 1, 0 ± 2 or 0 ± 3 analytical standard deviations (SDa), respectively. The probability of getting a nonequivalence alarm increases with increasing difference between the means when the difference is well within the specification limits. The probability increases with decreasing sample size and with smaller acceptance criteria. We may need at least 40-50 measurements with each analytical method when the specification limits are 0 ± 1 SDa, and 10-15 and 5-10 when the specification limits are 0 ± 2 and 0 ± 3 SDa, respectively. The power function curves provide information of the probability of false alarm, so that we can decide on the sample size under less uncertainty.

  7. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  8. Development of a 4-NQO toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach to enable a preliminary risk assessment of unknown genotoxic compounds detected by the Ames II test in UV/H2O2 water treatment samples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martijn, A.J.; Rompay, van A.R.; Penders, E.J.M.; Alharbi, Y.; Baggelaar, P.; Kruithof, J.C.; Rietjens, I.M.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    An approach to enable a preliminary risk assessment of unknown genotoxic compounds formed by MP UV/H2O2 treatment of nitrate rich water, is described. Since the identity and concentration of specific genotoxic compounds is not established yet, a compound specific risk assessment cannot be performed.

  9. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Veterinary Anatomy and Public Health

    1996-12-31

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures.

  10. Validation and Assessment of Three Methods to Estimate 24-h Urinary Sodium Excretion from Spot Urine Samples in High-Risk Elder Patients of Stroke from the Rural Areas of Shaanxi Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenxia Ma

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: 24-h urine collection is regarded as the “gold standard” for monitoring sodium intake at the population level, but ensuring high quality urine samples is difficult to achieve. The Kawasaki, International Study of Sodium, Potassium, and Blood Pressure (INTERSALT and Tanaka methods have been used to estimate 24-h urinary sodium excretion from spot urine samples in some countries, but few studies have been performed to compare and validate these methods in the Chinese population. Objective: To compare and validate the Kawasaki, INTERSALT and Tanaka formulas in predicting 24-h urinary sodium excretion using spot urine samples in 365 high-risk elder patients of strokefrom the rural areas of Shaanxi province. Methods: Data were collected from a sub-sample of theSalt Substitute and Stroke Study. 365 high-risk elder patients of stroke from the rural areas of Shaanxi province participated and their spot and 24-h urine specimens were collected. The concentrations of sodium, potassium and creatinine in spot and 24-h urine samples wereanalysed. Estimated 24-h sodium excretion was predicted from spot urine concentration using the Kawasaki, INTERSALT, and Tanaka formulas. Pearson correlation coefficients and agreement by Bland-Altman method were computed for estimated and measured 24-h urinary sodium excretion. Results: The average 24-h urinary sodium excretion was 162.0 mmol/day, which representing a salt intake of 9.5 g/day. Three predictive equations had low correlation with the measured 24-h sodium excretion (r = 0.38, p < 0.01; ICC = 0.38, p < 0.01 for the Kawasaki; r = 0.35, p < 0.01; ICC = 0.31, p < 0.01 for the INTERSALT; r = 0.37, p < 0.01; ICC = 0.34, p < 0.01 for the Tanaka. Significant biases between estimated and measured 24-h sodium excretion were observed (all p < 0.01 for three methods. Among the three methods, the Kawasaki method was the least biased compared with the other two methods (mean bias: 31.90, 95% Cl: 23.84, 39

  11. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  12. Apollo 13 Risk Assessment Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Bukovics, István

    2007-01-01

    Fault tree methodology is the most widespread risk assessment tool by which one is able to predict - in principle - the outcome of an event whenever it is reduced to simpler ones by the logic operations conjunction and disjunction according to the basics of Boolean algebra. The object of this work is to present an algorithm by which, using the corresponding computer code, one is able to predict - in practice - the outcome of an event whenever its fault tree is given in the u...

  13. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  14. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  15. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  16. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  17. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  18. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  19. Personal Risk Assessment of HIV/ AIDS Infections among Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated personal risk assessment of AIV/AIDS infections among adolescent girls in Nigeria. Four variables (age, knowledge and awareness, Parental status and family type) constituted the personal risk assessment of the adolescent girls. The sample consisted of 2000 adolescent girls using the stage ...

  20. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  1. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-18

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens' involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed.

  2. Effect of Risk Aversion on Single Sample Attribute Inspection Plans

    OpenAIRE

    Herbert Moskowitz; Robert Plante

    1984-01-01

    The impact of a decision maker's risk aversion on the choice of an optimal sampling plan is empirically examined for various batch sizes and prior distributions of the process quality level. These plans are compared to those of the classical linear cost model. The comparisons show that substantial differences in the characteristics of an optimal sampling plan (i.e., probability of acceptance, optimal sample size and expected total cost) occur when risk aversion is considered. A discussion of ...

  3. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  4. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Apel, H; Thieken, A. H; Merz, B; Blöschl, G

    2004-01-01

    Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure...

  5. Cardiovascular risk factors among college students: Knowledge, perception, and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Dieu-My T; Zimmerman, Lani M; Kupzyk, Kevin A; Shurmur, Scott W; Pullen, Carol H; Yates, Bernice C

    2017-04-01

    To assess college students' knowledge and perception of cardiovascular risk factors and to screen for their cardiovascular risks. The final sample that responded to recruitment consisted of 158 college students from a midwestern university. A cross-sectional, descriptive study was performed using convenience sampling. College students were knowledgeable about cardiovascular risk factors but did not perceive themselves at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors was correlated with the lifetime risk estimates (ρ = .17, p = .048), and perception of cardiovascular risk was positively associated with 30-year CVD risk estimates (ρ = .16, p = .048). More than 50% of the participants had 1 or more cardiovascular risk factors. High knowledge level of cardiovascular risk factors was not sufficient to lower cardiovascular risks within this study population, but changing perception of cardiovascular risk factors may play a bigger role in reducing long-term cardiovascular risks.

  6. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  8. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  9. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  10. UAV Swarm Operational Risk Assessment System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    distribution is unlimited UAV SWARM OPERATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT SYSTEM by Team CQ Alpha Cohort 311-141A September 2015 Project Advisors: Gregory......need for a UAV Swarm Risk Assessment Tool and how it can assist the Navy’s decision makers in assessing risk of UAV swarm threats in littoral

  11. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  12. Biostatistics series module 8: Assessing risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avijit Hazra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In observational studies, as well as in interventional ones, it is frequently necessary to estimate risk that is the association between an observed outcome or event and exposure to one or more factors that may be contributing to the event. Understanding incidence and prevalence are the starting point in any discussion of risk assessment. Incidence rate uses person-time as the denominator rather than a simple count. Ideally, rates and ratios estimated from samples should be presented with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs. To assess the importance of an individual risk factor, it is necessary to compare the risk of the outcome in the exposed group with that in the nonexposed group. A comparison between risks in different groups can be made by examining either their ratio or the difference between them. The 2 × 2 contingency table comes in handy in the calculation of ratios. Odds ratio (OR is the ratio of the odds of an event in the exposed group, to the odds of the same event in the nonexposed group. It can range from zero to infinity. When the odds of an outcome in the two groups are identical, then the OR equals one. OR >1 indicates exposure increases risk while OR <1 indicates that exposure is protecting against risk. The OR should be presented with its 95% CI to enable more meaningful interpretation – if this interval includes 1, then even a relatively large OR will not carry much weight. The relative risk (RR denotes the ratio of risk (probability of event in exposed group to risk of same event in the nonexposed group. Its interpretation is similar (but not identical to the OR. If the event in question is relatively uncommon, values of OR and RR tend to be similar. Absolute risk reduction (ARR is a measure of the effectiveness of an intervention with respect to a dichotomous event. It is calculated as proportion experiencing the event in control group minus the proportion experiencing the event in treated group. It is

  13. Persistent sample circulation microextraction combined with graphite furnace atomic absorption spectroscopy for trace determination of heavy metals in fish species marketed in Kermanshah, Iran and human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safari, Yahya; Karimaei, Mostafa; Sharafi, Kiomars; Arfaeinia, Hossein; Moradi, Masoud; Fattahi, Nazir

    2017-11-21

    The persistent sample circulation microextraction (PSCME) joined with the graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GFAAS) was developed as a high preconcentration technique for the determination of heavy metals in fish species. In this method, a few microliter of organic solvent (40.0 µl carbon tetrachloride) was transferred to the bottom of a conical sample cup. Then a 10.0 ml of aqueous solution transformed to fine droplets while passing through an organic solvent. At this stage, metal-ligand hydrophobic complex was extracted into the organic solvent. After extraction, 20 µl of extraction solvent was injected into the graphite tube using an auto-sampler. Under the optimum conditions, enrichment factors and enhancement factor were in the range of 180-240 and 155-214, respectively. The calibration curves were linear in the range of 0.03-200 µg kg-1 and the limits of detections (LODs) were in the range of 0.01-0.05 µg kg-1 . The Repeatability (intra-day) and reproducibility (inter-day) for 0.50 µg l-1 of Hg and 0.10 µg l-1 of Cd and Pb were in the range of 3.1-4.2% (n = 7) and 4.3-6.1% (n = 7), respectively. A potential human health risk assessment was conducted by calculating estimated weekly intake (EWI) of the metals from eating fish and comparison of these values with provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) values. EWI data for the studied metals through fish consumption were lower than the PTWI values. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  14. From Hazard to Risk - Assessing the Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madsen, C.B.; Houben, G.; Hattersley, S.; Crevel, R.W.R.; Remington, B.C.; Baumert, J.L.

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory thresholds for allergenic foods have not yet been developed. This means that public and industrial risk managers do not have regulatory thresholds to decide if a content or level of contamination is acceptable or not. For a long time, data have been inadequate to define safe thresholds

  15. Bilastine: an environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucero, María Luisa; Peither, Armin; Ledo, Francisco

    2015-10-01

    Bilastine is a new oral selective, non-sedating histamine H1 antagonist for the symptomatic treatment of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and urticaria. The European Medicines Agency requires an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for all novel medicines for human use. To calculate the bilastine predicted environmental concentration in surface water (PECsw; phase I ERA), and to determine the effects of bilastine on aquatic systems (phase II [tier A]). Bilastine PECsw was calculated using the maximum daily dosage (20 mg), assuming that all administered bilastine was released into the aquatic environment. A persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity assessment was conducted using the log Kow from the molecular structure. In phase II (tier A), a ready biodegradability test was performed, and bilastine's potential toxicity to various aquatic and sediment-dwelling micro-organisms was evaluated. Bilastine PECSW was calculated as 0.1 μg L(-1), and the compound was not readily biodegradable. Bilastine had no significant effects on Chironomus riparius midges, or on the respiration rate of activated sludge. For green algae, the bilastine no observed effect concentration (NOEC) was 22 mg L(-1); bilastine had no effect on zebra fish development, or on the reproduction rate of daphnids. Bilastine NOEC values against zebra fish, algae, daphnids, and aerobic organisms in activated sludge were at least 130 000-fold greater than the calculated PECSW value. No environmental concerns exist from bilastine use in patients with allergic rhinoconjunctivitis or urticaria.

  16. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  17. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible.

  18. Incremental Sampling Methodology: Applications for Background Screening Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pooler, Penelope S; Goodrum, Philip E; Crumbling, Deana; Stuchal, Leah D; Roberts, Stephen M

    2018-01-01

    This article presents the findings from a numerical simulation study that was conducted to evaluate the performance of alternative statistical analysis methods for background screening assessments when data sets are generated with incremental sampling methods (ISMs). A wide range of background and site conditions are represented in order to test different ISM sampling designs. Both hypothesis tests and upper tolerance limit (UTL) screening methods were implemented following U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidance for specifying error rates. The simulations show that hypothesis testing using two-sample t-tests can meet standard performance criteria under a wide range of conditions, even with relatively small sample sizes. Key factors that affect the performance include unequal population variances and small absolute differences in population means. UTL methods are generally not recommended due to conceptual limitations in the technique when applied to ISM data sets from single decision units and due to insufficient power given standard statistical sample sizes from ISM. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Equilibrium sampling for a thermodynamic assessment of contaminated sediments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    of the biota relative to the sediment. Furthermore, concentrations in lipid at thermodynamic equilibrium with sediment (Clip?Sed) can be calculated via lipid/silicone partition ratios CSil × KLip:Sil, which has been done in studies with limnic, river and marine sediments. The data can then be compared to lipid......Hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) reaching the aquatic environment are largely stored in sediments. The risk of contaminated sediments is challenging to assess since traditional exhaustive extraction methods yield total HOC concentrations, whereas freely dissolved concentrations (Cfree......) govern diffusive uptake and partitioning. Equilibrium sampling of sediment was introduced 15 years ago to measure Cfree, and it has since developed into a straightforward, precise and sensitive approach for determining Cfree and other exposure parameters that allow for thermodynamic assessment...

  20. ASSESSING SMALL SAMPLE WAR-GAMING DATASETS

    OpenAIRE

    W. J. HURLEY; R. N. FARRELL

    2013-01-01

    One of the fundamental problems faced by military planners is the assessment of changes to force structure. An example is whether to replace an existing capability with an enhanced system. This can be done directly with a comparison of measures such as accuracy, lethality, survivability, etc. However this approach does not allow an assessment of the force multiplier effects of the proposed change. To gauge these effects, planners often turn to war-gaming. For many war-gaming experiments, it i...

  1. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  2. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  3. Bayesian stratified sampling to assess corpus utility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hochberg, J.; Scovel, C.; Thomas, T.; Hall, S.

    1998-12-01

    This paper describes a method for asking statistical questions about a large text corpus. The authors exemplify the method by addressing the question, ``What percentage of Federal Register documents are real documents, of possible interest to a text researcher or analyst?`` They estimate an answer to this question by evaluating 200 documents selected from a corpus of 45,820 Federal Register documents. Bayesian analysis and stratified sampling are used to reduce the sampling uncertainty of the estimate from over 3,100 documents to fewer than 1,000. A possible application of the method is to establish baseline statistics used to estimate recall rates for information retrieval systems.

  4. An efficient sampling strategy for selection of biobank samples using risk scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björk, Jonas; Malmqvist, Ebba; Rylander, Lars; Rignell-Hydbom, Anna

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this study was to suggest a new sample-selection strategy based on risk scores in case-control studies with biobank data. An ongoing Swedish case-control study on fetal exposure to endocrine disruptors and overweight in early childhood was used as the empirical example. Cases were defined as children with a body mass index (BMI) ⩾18 kg/m(2) ( n=545) at four years of age, and controls as children with a BMI of ⩽17 kg/m(2) ( n=4472 available). The risk of being overweight was modelled using logistic regression based on available covariates from the health examination and prior to selecting samples from the biobank. A risk score was estimated for each child and categorised as low (0-5%), medium (6-13%) or high (⩾14%) risk of being overweight. The final risk-score model, with smoking during pregnancy ( p=0.001), birth weight ( poperating characteristic curve of 67% ( n=3945 with complete data). The case group ( n=416) had the following risk-score profile: low (12%), medium (46%) and high risk (43%). Twice as many controls were selected from each risk group, with further matching on sex. Computer simulations showed that the proposed selection strategy with stratification on risk scores yielded consistent improvements in statistical precision. Using risk scores based on available survey or register data as a basis for sample selection may improve possibilities to study heterogeneity of exposure effects in biobank-based studies.

  5. Risk Gambling and Personality: Results from a Representative Swedish Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundqvist, Kristina; Wennberg, Peter

    2015-12-01

    The association between personality and gambling has been explored previously. However, few studies are based on representative populations. This study aimed at examining the association between risk gambling and personality in a representative Swedish population. A random Swedish sample (N = 19,530) was screened for risk gambling using the Lie/Bet questionnaire. The study sample (N = 257) consisted of those screening positive on Lie/Bet and completing a postal questionnaire about gambling and personality (measured with the NODS-PERC and the HP5i respectively). Risk gambling was positively correlated with Negative Affectivity (a facet of Neuroticism) and Impulsivity (an inversely related facet of Conscientiousness), but all associations were weak. When taking age and gender into account, there were no differences in personality across game preference groups, though preferred game correlated with level of risk gambling. Risk gamblers scored lower than the population norm data with respect to Negative Affectivity, but risk gambling men scored higher on Impulsivity. The association between risk gambling and personality found in previous studies was corroborated in this study using a representative sample. We conclude that risk and problem gamblers should not be treated as a homogeneous group, and prevention and treatment interventions should be adapted according to differences in personality, preferred type of game and the risk potential of the games.

  6. European risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaver, M.H.A.; Luiijf, H.A.M.; Nieuwenhuijs, A.H.; Cavenne, F.; Ulisse, A.; Bridegeman, G.

    2008-01-01

    Most risk assessment methodologies aim at the risk at the level of an individual organization or company. The European Union commissioned a study to define the elements for a uniform and scalable risk assessment methodology which takes into account critical infrastructure dependencies across

  7. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  8. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  9. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...... the area forward. Three possible approaches to safety assessment and risk assessment for allergenic foods were presented and discussed: safety assessment using NOAEL/LOAEL and uncertainty factors, safety assessment using Benchmark Dose and Margin of Exposure (MoE), and risk assessment using probabilistic...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic...

  10. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 7. Absolute Risk Reduction and ARR-like Expressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei ACHIMAŞ CADARIU

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Assessments of a controlled clinical trial suppose to interpret some key parameters as the controlled event rate, experimental event date, relative risk, absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, number needed to treat when the effect of the treatment are dichotomous variables. Defined as the difference in the event rate between treatment and control groups, the absolute risk reduction is the parameter that allowed computing the number needed to treat. The absolute risk reduction is compute when the experimental treatment reduces the risk for an undesirable outcome/event. In medical literature when the absolute risk reduction is report with its confidence intervals, the method used is the asymptotic one, even if it is well know that may be inadequate. The aim of this paper is to introduce and assess nine methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction – like function.Computer implementations of the methods use the PHP language. Methods comparison uses the experimental errors, the standard deviations, and the deviation relative to the imposed significance level for specified sample sizes. Six methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction-like functions were assessed using random binomial variables and random sample sizes.The experiments shows that the ADAC, and ADAC1 methods obtains the best overall performance of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction.

  11. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi [Nuclear Science Programme, School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan (Malaysia)

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

  12. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  13. Pesticide Science and Assessing Pesticide Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  14. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  15. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  16. Gambling Motives in a Representative Swedish Sample of Risk Gamblers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundqvist, Kristina; Jonsson, Jakob; Wennberg, Peter

    2016-12-01

    Motives for gambling have been shown to be associated with gambling involvement, and hence important in the understanding of the etiology of problem gambling. The aim of this study was to describe differences in gambling motives in different subgroups of lifetime risk gamblers, categorized by: age, gender, alcohol- and drug habits and type of game preferred, when considering the level of risk gambling. A random Swedish sample (n = 19,530) was screened for risk gambling, using the Lie/Bet questionnaire. The study sample (n = 257) consisted of the respondents screening positive on Lie/Bet and completing a postal questionnaire about gambling and motives for gambling (measured with the NODS-PERC and the RGQ respectively). When considering the level of risk gambling, motives for gambling were not associated with gender, whereas younger persons gambled for the challenge more often than did older participants. Card/Casino and Sport gamblers played to a greater extent for social and challenge reasons then did Lotto/Bingo-gamblers. EGM-gamblers played more for coping reasons than did Lotto/Bingo gamblers. However, this association turned non-significant when considering the level of risk gambling. Moderate risk gamblers played for the challenge and coping reasons to a greater extent than low risk gamblers motives for gambling differ across subgroups of preferred game and between gamblers with low and moderate risk. The level of risk gambling is intertwined with motives for gambling and should be considered when examining gambling reasons.

  17. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

    2016-08-20

    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2Health effect level×2exposure ratio×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions and

  18. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment: A Methodological Comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Christensen, Frans Møller; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2001-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment are two different tools in environmental management. The paper identifies harmonies, discrepancies and relations between the two tools exemplified by the risk assessment principles of the European Commission (EC) and the LCA method ‘EDIP’ (En......-vironmental Design of Industrial Products) developed in Denmark, respectively. A very important feature of LCA is the relative assessment due to the use of a functional unit. Risk assessment on the other hand is an absolute assessment, which may require very specific and detailed information on e.g. the exposure...

  19. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  20. Preconception risk assessment of infertile couples

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nekuei, Nafisehsadat; Kazemi, Ashraf; Ehsanpur, Soheila; Beigi, Nastaran Mohammad Ali

    2013-01-01

    With regard to the importance of preconception conditions in maternal health and fertility, preconception risk assessment makes treatment trends and pregnancy outcome more successful among infertile couples...

  1. Computing Sampling Weights in Large-scale Assessments in Education

    OpenAIRE

    Meinck, Sabine

    2015-01-01

    Sampling weights are a reflection of sampling design; they allow us to draw valid conclusions about population features from sample data. This paper explains the fundamentals of computing sampling weights for large-scale assessments in educational research. The relationship between the nature of complex samples and best practices in developing a set of weights to enable computation of unbiased population estimates is described. Effects of sampling weights on estimates are shown...

  2. [Development and application of fracture risk assessments].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Toshitaka

    2012-06-01

    Definition of osteoporosis by BMD T-score has been accepted globally. However, the age-dependent changes in BMD values differ on the different sites for measurements and the sensitivity of BMD to predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture, assessed by the risk gradient value, is as small as 1.7. Reportedly, WHO Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX®) tool to compute 10-year probabilities of osteoporotic fracture, is sensitive enough to select the high fracture risk subjects with the risk gradient value of 2.57 - 2.77 in Japanese men and women. The combination of the three major risk factors such as age, BMD and prevalent fractures, when both morphometric spine and clinical non-spine fracture are included, represents the value of 2.49 - 2.71. Radiographic assessment of prevalent vertebral fracture, along with FRAX®evaluation, seems to be important in assessing the fracture risk in Japanese subjects.

  3. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  4. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  5. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  6. Risk assessment for industrial safety engineers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Nae U; Lee, Ji U; Jeon, Seong Gyun; Lee, Yeong Sun

    1997-02-15

    This book deals with risk assessment and dangerous material of definition cases and industrial disaster, risk assessment of summary, ways of assessment and effect model, material safety data sheet system such as management, writing skill and use, product and storage of dangerous material like chemical reaction of homogeneous catalysis, harmfulness of material, corrosion and anti corrosion like crevice corrosion and erosion corrosion and range, classification, application of safety assessment.

  7. Ecological risk assessment of heavy metals pollution on irrigated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper assessed the heavy metals pollution in irrigated soil of salanta river valley of Sharada industrial area with aim of assessing the potential ecological risk of Cd, Cu, Cr and Zn. Soil samples were collected from five plots randomly selected along the stream and heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Cr and Zn) and pH were ...

  8. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  9. GHGT-11 - Integrated Carbon Risk Assessment (ICARAS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wollenweber, J.; Busby, D.; Wessel-Berg, D.; Nepveu, M.; Bossie Codreanu, D.; Grimstad, A-A.; Sijacic, D.; Maurand, N.; Lothe, A.; Wahl, F.; Polak, S.; Boot, H.; Grøver, A.; Wildenborg, T.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper an integrated workflow is described for risk assessment within CCS. IFPEN, SINTEF and TNO joined forces to define a comprehensive and transparent risk assessment methodology. The tools developed in these institutes are thereby integrated. The workflow can be applied to proposed carbon

  10. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  11. Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

  12. Factors affecting behaviours that address HIV risk among a sample ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Factors affecting behaviours that address HIV risk among a sample of junior secondary school students in the Northern Province, South Africa. ... 16.3 yr, SD = 2.3) from three rural schools in one region of the Northern Province of South Africa.

  13. Dual Protection, Contraceptive Use And Hiv Risk Among A Sample ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dual Protection, Contraceptive Use And Hiv Risk Among A Sample Of South African Male And Female Students. ... Gender and Behaviour ... Results indicate that 71% were protected from both pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections the last time they had sexual intercourse, 8.8% using dual methods and 61.8% using ...

  14. Vascular Plaque Determination for Stroke Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0608 TITLE: Vascular Plaque Determination for Stroke Risk Assessment PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Vince, David Geoffrey...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Vascular Plaque Determination for Stroke Risk Assessment 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-16-1-0608 5c. PROGRAM... plaques at high risk for initiating a cerebrovascular accident. The core of the current research project is a pilot clinical study to enroll 100 subjects

  15. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  16. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  17. RISK ASSESSMENT SUPPORTING THE FINAL RULE FOR ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This analysis evaluates potential risks due to release of solvents from laundry sludge and disposable wipes sent to a landfill. Receptors for air and groundwater in lined and unlined landfills were evaluated. The potential solvent concentrations were calculated to determine the solvent loadings from the wipes and sludge. The mass based solvent quantity loadings were compared to the risk based loadings to determine the risk potential for specific solvents. This risk analysis also addressed previous peer reviewers’ and general public comments on the initial risk assessment conducted for the proposed rule. The final rule, supported by the risk assessment, will be prepared after the consideration of all comments for the proposed rule and the risk analysis Notice of Data Availability. The risk analysis will be used to support the development of a final rule for solvent-contaminated wipes. To ensure the adequacy of the modeling and solvent concentrations, the analysis was peer reviewed by external reviewers.

  18. Cardiovascular Risk Factors among College Students: Knowledge, Perception, and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Dieu-My T.; Zimmerman, Lani M.; Kupzyk, Kevin A.; Shurmur, Scott W.; Pullen, Carol H.; Yates, Bernice C.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To assess college students' knowledge and perception of cardiovascular risk factors and to screen for their cardiovascular risks. Participants: The final sample that responded to recruitment consisted of 158 college students from a midwestern university. Methods: A cross-sectional, descriptive study was performed using convenience…

  19. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung-Hee Choi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

  20. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  1. Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

    OpenAIRE

    Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The ...

  2. Sampling efficiency for species composition assessments using the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A pilot survey to determine the sampling efficiency of the wheel-point method, using the nearest plant method, to assess species composition (using replicate similarity related to sampling intensity, and total sampling time) was conducted on three plot sizes (20 x 20m, 30 x 30m, 40 x 40m) at two sites in a semi-arid savanna.

  3. Automated Neuropsychological Assessment Metrics: Repeated Assessment with Two Military Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Eonta, Operational & Undersea Medicine/Neurotrauma, Naval Medical Re- search Center, 503 Robert Grant Ave., Silver Spring, MD 20910-7500...DC : Winston & Sons ; 1972 . 30. Wilken JA, Sullivan CL, Lewandowski A, Kane RL . The use of ANAM to assess the side-effect profi les

  4. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  5. Cardiovascular risk assessment in diabetes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Djaberi, Roxana

    2014-01-01

    Research described in this thesis is based on clinical data obtained through diabetes cardiovascular risk management (DIACARM) project. A clinical protocol founded on the co-operation of the departments of endocrinology, cardiology, nephrology, radiology and nuclear medicine at the Leiden University

  6. Health risk assessments for alumina refineries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S

    2014-05-01

    To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

  7. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  8. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Models to Assess the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Valeria TOMA

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Closely related to financial risk assessment, one of the main concerns of the organizations should be the evaluation of bankruptcy risk, in this period of slow economic growth. Organization bankruptcies have increased in recent years worldwide. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the methods and models for forecasting bankruptcy of organizations, for the bankruptcy risk assessment are seeing for the health financing of an entity in financial accounting diagnosis and that the organizations requires assessment of risks accompanying the work, in which some signals fragility (vulnerable health this and other projected bankruptcy (insolvability threatens its survival (continuity. The bankruptcy risk assessment is important for profit-seeking investors because they must know how to value a company in or near bankruptcy is an important skill, but to detect any signs of looming bankruptcy is necessary to calculate and to analyse all kinds of financial rations: working capital, profitability, debt levels and liquidity.

  10. Suicide risk assessment in high-risk adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Barbara P; Dihigo, Sharolyn K

    2015-09-13

    A significant number of adolescents experience depression and other mental health disorders that may put them at risk for suicide. Mental health assessment is an important component of primary healthcare. Depression and suicide risk screening can assist healthcare providers in preventing suicides.

  11. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  12. Quality of fracture risk assessment in post-fracture care in Ontario, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Allin, S.; Munce, S.; Schott, A.-M.; Hawker, G.; Murphy, K.; Jaglal, S. B.

    2012-01-01

    Summary As fracture risk assessment is a basis for treatment decisions, accurate risk assessments on bone mineral density (BMD) reports are important. Over 50?% of sampled BMD reports for Ontarians with fracture histories underestimated fracture risk by a single category. Risk assessments in Ontario may not accurately inform treatment recommendations. Introduction The shifting emphasis on fracture risk assessment as a basis for treatment recommendations highlights the importance of ensuring t...

  13. Applying Incremental Sampling Methodology to Soils Containing Heterogeneously Distributed Metallic Residues to Improve Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clausen, J L; Georgian, T; Gardner, K H; Douglas, T A

    2018-01-01

    This study compares conventional grab sampling to incremental sampling methodology (ISM) to characterize metal contamination at a military small-arms-range. Grab sample results had large variances, positively skewed non-normal distributions, extreme outliers, and poor agreement between duplicate samples even when samples were co-located within tens of centimeters of each other. The extreme outliers strongly influenced the grab sample means for the primary contaminants lead (Pb) and antinomy (Sb). In contrast, median and mean metal concentrations were similar for the ISM samples. ISM significantly reduced measurement uncertainty of estimates of the mean, increasing data quality (e.g., for environmental risk assessments) with fewer samples (e.g., decreasing total project costs). Based on Monte Carlo resampling simulations, grab sampling resulted in highly variable means and upper confidence limits of the mean relative to ISM.

  14. Risk Assessment of the Innovative Projects Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deptuła Anna Małgorzata

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the issue of risk assessment of innovations. Specificity of technological innovation realized in manufacturing companies has been particularly well described here. An original method of assessing the innovative projects risk has been presented. The elaborated method has been implemented in three enterprises, the business activity of which is not typical for electrical engineering, metal and mechanical engineering and companies which are going to carry out the innovative project simultaneously with already started innovative projects. Moreover, an example of the risk assessment of a chosen technological innovation has been presented.

  15. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    standardised scientific methods to characterise the probability and magnitude of harm caused by a hazard, preferably in a quantitative manner. In turn, HIA is a process to assess future impacts of recent proposals and is dominated by qualitative evaluation. It makes a projection for a future scenario rather......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...... their relationship. The experiences accumulated during the preparation of several case studies in a large scale international project (RAPID) are used for argumentation and formulation of recommendations on how risk assessment can be systematically integrated into the HIA process. Risk assessment uses well...

  16. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  17. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  18. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  19. [Study on application of two risk assessment methods in coal dust occupational health risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, B; Zhang, Y L; Chen, Y Q

    2017-04-20

    Objective: To evaluate the applicability of quantitative grading method (GBZ/T 229.1-2010) and occupational hazard risk index method in coal dust occupational health risk assessment. Methods: Taking 4 coal mines as the research object of risk assessment and making occupational health field testing and investigation. Based on two risk assessment methods, we analysed the health risk levels of 20 occupations which were exposed to coal dust in workplaces. Results: Coal dust working post had different risk levels in 4 coal mines, the post of higher risk level were mainly concentrated in the underground workplace of coal mine, especially the post of coal mining and tunneling system. The two risk assessment results showed that the risk levels of coal-mining machine drivers and tunneling machine drivers were the highest. The risk levels of coal dust working post used by two risk assessment methods had no significant difference (P>0.05) and were highly correlated (r=0.821, Prisk assessment methods were supported by the field investigation and literatures. Conclusion: The two risk assessment methods can be used in coal dust occupational health risk assessment.

  20. Risk assessment in transportation systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Młyńczak Marek

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents problems of hazard identification in transportation systems, where not only field of action is large but also cause-consequences relations between failure causes and losses are distant in time and space. It is observed in transportation systems of goods and passengers, systems of water, gas, oil distribution and electro-energetic nets. Proposed systemic approach based on system elements classification on active (casual and passive ones (affected. There are described concepts of vulnerability (damageability, resilience (ability of recovering and risk controlling by introducing safety measures to undesired event chain.

  1. [Working abroad: risk assessment and immunization].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianco, P; Anzelmo, V

    2010-01-01

    The workers travelling abroad by country of origin to carry on the job puts at risk not present in the country of origin, which overlap those related to the job profile. These risks are related to the trip, the geographic area of destination, the climate, the presence of vector, the socio-economic variables, the hygienic conditions of the host country. The risk assessment for workers abroad is complex and requires multidisciplinary inputs. Correctly performed, the risk assessment identifies the parameters needed to develop appropriate preventive strategies. The assessment of biological risk related to the geographic areas identifies immunization programs that prevent serious infectious diseases. The occupational physician must establish health surveillance programs in which the vaccination schemes should be related to geographical areas. Training and information company programs to complete protection through hygienic measures.

  2. Comparative Assessment of Copper, Iron, and Zinc Contents in Selected Indian (Assam) and South African (Thohoyandou) Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) Samples and Their Infusion: A Quest for Health Risks to Consumer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karak, Tanmoy; Paul, Ranjit Kumar; Kutu, Funso Raphael; Mehra, Aradhana; Khare, Puja; Dutta, Amrit Kumar; Bora, Krishnamoni; Boruah, Romesh Kumar

    2017-02-01

    The current study aims to assess the infusion pattern of three important micronutrients namely copper (Cu), iron (Fe), and zinc (Zn) contents from black tea samples produced in Assam (India) and Thohoyandou (South Africa). Average daily intakes and hazardous quotient were reported for these micronutrients. Total content for Cu, Fe, and Zn varied from 2.25 to 48.82 mg kg(-1), 14.75 to 148.18 mg kg(-1), and 28.48 to 106.68 mg kg(-1), respectively. The average contents of each of the three micronutrients were higher in tea leaves samples collected from South Africa than those from India while the contents in tea infusions in Indian samples were higher than in South African tea samples. Results of this study revealed that the consumption of 600 mL tea infusion produced from 24 g of made tea per day may be beneficial to human in terms of these micronutrients content. Application of nonparametric tests revealed that most of the data sets do not satisfy the normality assumptions. Hence, the use of both parametric and nonparametric statistical analysis that subsequently revealed significant differences in elemental contents among Indian and South African tea.

  3. Family Dysfunction and Suicide Risk in a Community Corrections Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, C Brendan; Li, Ye; Cropsey, Karen L

    2016-11-01

    When comparted with the general population, the suicide rate in correctional populations is elevated. While predictors of suicide are well researched in jail and prison populations, much less work has been done to examine predictors of suicide in community corrections samples where 80% of the US correctional population is currently supervised. The goal of this study was to determine factors associated with suicide risk in a community corrections sample. Self-reported current ideation was examined in a sample of 512 individuals under supervision. When univariate associations between current suicidal ideation and predictor variables were examined, current suicidal ideation was associated with being female, being White, reporting an increased level of stress, reporting an increased level of depression, meeting criteria for an anxiety disorder, an increased number of physical health complaints, and self-report of family dysfunction. In a multivariate analysis predicting suicide risk, only meeting criteria for an anxiety disorder, an increased number of physical health complaints, and self-report of family dysfunction were significant. Mental and physical health complaints as well as self-report of family dysfunction are salient predictors of suicide risk in the community corrections population.

  4. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...

  5. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...

  6. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  7. Open risk assessment: methods and expertise

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Verloo, Didier; Meyvis, Tom; Smith, Anthony

    2016-01-01

    ... traditional dialogue and towards a more sustainable stakeholder and society interaction. The discussion centred on the needs of EFSA and of target audiences throughout the process, from risk assessment initiation through societal...

  8. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  9. How We Assess Risks to Pollinators

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has a new risk assessment framework for bees as part of its regulatory decision-making process for all pesticides, which relies on a tiered process, focuses on major routes of exposure, and distinguishes different types of pesticide treatment.

  10. Towards dynamics in flood risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mazzorana, B; Levaggi, L; Keiler, M; Fuchs, S

    2012-01-01

    .... The assessment of the dynamic evolution of flood risk is the pillar of any subsequent planning process that is targeted at a reduction of the expected adverse consequences of the hazard impact...

  11. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  12. European Union Risk Assessment Report - Sodium Perborate

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    This report provides , with conclusions, the risk assessment report of the substance sodium perborate that has been prepared by Austria in the context of Council Regulation (EEC) No. 793/93 on the evaluation and control of existing substances.

  13. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  14. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments ? A Review

    OpenAIRE

    Kyoung-Hee Choi; Heeyoung Lee; Soomin Lee; Sejeong Kim; Yohan Yoon

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused o...

  15. Import risk assessment for salmon meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beers, P T; Wilson, D W

    1993-12-01

    The authors discuss the risk assessment currently being conducted by the Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service (AQIS) on the importation of salmon products. AQIS conducted a public consultation on the proposal, in line with Australian Government policy on transparency and accountability in the quarantine decision-making process. The authors examine the factors which should be taken into account in the assessment of the risk associated with the importation of such products, and note the difficulties encountered with the epidemiology of fish diseases.

  16. Sulfur Oxides Risk and Exposure Assessment Planning ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    In conducting risk/exposure assessments for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review, EPA will first develop a draft Scope and Methods Plan which will describe the proposed scope of the quantitative and qualitative analyses to be performed and the tools/methods that may be employed Provide opportunity for CASAC feedback on EPA's plans for the risk and exposure assessment for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review

  17. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  18. Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Moel, H.; Jongman, B.; Kreibich, H.; Merz, B.; Penning-Rowsell, E; Ward, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    Managing flood risk, i.e. both the hazard and the potential consequences, is an important aspect of adapting to global change and has gained much traction in recent decades. As a result, a priori flood risk assessments have become an important part of flood management practices. Many methodologies

  19. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  20. Experimental Validation of a Risk Assessment Method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vriezekolk, E.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    [Context and motivation] It is desirable that require- ment engineering methods are reliable, that is, that methods can be repeated with the same results. Risk assessments methods, however, often have low reliability when they identify risk mitigations for a sys- tem based on expert judgement.

  1. [Current lines of methodology for risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakhmanin, Iu A; Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A

    2007-01-01

    The paper presents the results of some guidance studies assessing the risk, recently conducted at the A. N. Sysin Research Institute of Human Ecology and Environmental Health, such as validation of toxicological and hygienic criteria for risk assessment upon short- and long-term human exposures to deleterious substances; development and introduction of methods for assessing health risk and damage, by applying computer technologies; elaboration of guidelines for establishing the cause-and-effect relationship of changes in health indices to those in the environment; characterization of damage caused by ambient air pollution in Russian cities and towns; possibilities of using the guidance for assessing the risk to improve sociohygienic monitoring. It also gives the results of testing scientific developments in the assessment of a multienvironmental risk in the areas exposed to emission from aluminum works (Khakasia) and chemical and petrochemical enterprises (Samara Region) and in the determination of contribution of emission from the Moscow fuel-and-energy complex to risks and damages to human health, caused by ambient air pollution. The urgent issues of further development of modern trends in risk guidance studies are determined.

  2. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  3. Estimating risk at a Superfund site using passive sampling devices as biological surrogates in human health risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Sarah E; Sower, Gregory J; Anderson, Kim A

    2011-10-01

    Passive sampling devices (PSDs) sequester the freely dissolved fraction of lipophilic contaminants, mimicking passive chemical uptake and accumulation by biomembranes and lipid tissues. Public Health Assessments that inform the public about health risks from exposure to contaminants through consumption of resident fish are generally based on tissue data, which can be difficult to obtain and requires destructive sampling. The purpose of this study is to apply PSD data in a Public Health Assessment to demonstrate that PSDs can be used as a biological surrogate to evaluate potential human health risks and elucidate spatio-temporal variations in risk. PSDs were used to measure polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Willamette River; upriver, downriver and within the Portland Harbor Superfund megasite for 3 years during wet and dry seasons. Based on an existing Public Health Assessment for this area, concentrations of PAHs in PSDs were substituted for fish tissue concentrations. PSD measured PAH concentrations captured the magnitude, range and variability of PAH concentrations reported for fish/shellfish from Portland Harbor. Using PSD results in place of fish data revealed an unacceptable risk level for cancer in all seasons but no unacceptable risk for non-cancer endpoints. Estimated cancer risk varied by several orders of magnitude based on season and location. Sites near coal tar contamination demonstrated the highest risk, particularly during the dry season and remediation activities. Incorporating PSD data into Public Health Assessments provides specific spatial and temporal contaminant exposure information that can assist public health professionals in evaluating human health risks. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Updating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2017-06-01

    Actuarial scales like the Static-99R are widely used to predict an individual's risk of sexual recidivism. However, current actuarial scales only provide rates of detected sex offenses over 10-year follow-up and do not account for all recidivism risk factors. Therefore, some forensic evaluators extrapolate, adjust, or override recidivism rates derived from actuarial scales to predict the lifetime risk of committed offenses that accounts for external risk factors, those not addressed by the actuarial scales. However, critics contend that altering rates from actuarial scales degrades their predictive validity. This article makes the case for extrapolating risk for time of exposure and for evidence-based external risk factors. It proposes using odds ratios (ORs) from case-control studies to adjust predictions from follow-up cohort studies. Finally, it shows how evaluators can apply ORs and their margins of error to sex offender risk assessment.

  5. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p ... of impaired specificities. No combinations proved clinically useful values according to Yuoden's index. CONCLUSIONS: Within the limitations of the present study, the computer-based Cariogram did not perform better than a caries risk assessment scheme based on past caries experience and caries progression...

  6. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  8. Assessing wildfire risks at multiple spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justin Fitch

    2008-01-01

    In continuation of the efforts to advance wildfire science and develop tools for wildland fire managers, a spatial wildfire risk assessment was carried out using Classification and Regression Tree analysis (CART) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis was performed at two scales. The small-scale assessment covered the entire state of New Mexico, while...

  9. Risk assessment as collective clinical judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Denis

    2002-01-01

    Risk assessment occupies an increasingly important position in psychiatry. This paper contends that collective judgement is the optimal method of assessing risk. Risk has a dual meaning: emotional and judgemental. Assaults, threats and survival anxiety. Staff wariness and resistance, attribution of blame. For a group to function well it must have a clear task. Custodial roles can lead to ambiguity. Externally directed hostility, internal homogenization of views. Rituals can develop in forensic institutions, as well as militarism. ANTI-THERAPEUTIC CULTURE: Sadism may develop where a marked power differential develops. Danger intensifies the feelings about leaders, perhaps idealization, perhaps disaffection. Leaders and others need to agree on risk assessment or fragmentation will occur. The assessment of risk may modify it. Mutual hostility must be reduced. Dialogue and understanding are needed. The environment should be less authoritarian and more democratic, so that patients can join a group and internalize its values. Reflective space is also required. Risk assessment is best described in terms of human endeavour, not in the language of scientific measurement.

  10. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  11. Desertification risk assessment and management program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Akbari

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment provides the possibility of planning and management to prevent and reduce the risk of desertification. The present study is aimed to assess the hazard and risk of desertification and to develop management programs in the semi-arid western regions of Golestan Province in Iran. Desertification rate was obtained using the Iranian model of desertification potential assessment. Since the rating system was considered for the indicators, data analyses were carried out according to the Mann-Whitney test. The risk of desertification was calculated based on hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability assessment maps. The intensity of desertification was estimated to be medium. Among the factors affecting desertification, agriculture by the weighted average of 3.22 had the highest effect, followed by soil, vegetation, water and wind erosion criteria by weighted averages of 2.45, 2.32, 2.15 and 1.6 respectively. Desertification risk assessment results also showed that about 78% of central and northern parts of the region, with the largest population and residential centers, surface and underground water resources, agriculture and horticulture, is confronted with a high to very high degree of risk. Management plans and control measures, based on risk values were presented in four activities (with two management priorities under critical and non-critical conditions. For the management program with the largest area. Control measures and strategies such as the establishment of halophytic and xerophytic plants, drainage networks, resilient facilities and infrastructure were proposed. Reducing the risk of desertification, could play a crucial role in the sustainable development of drylands and desert ecosystems.

  12. An assessment of high risk sexual behaviour and HIV transmission ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Method: A total of 300 randomly selected migrant oil workers were assessed using structured questionnaires to evaluate key high – risk sexual behavioral parameters such as multiplicity of sexual partners, bisexuality (closet homosexuality), high grade sexual behaviour and lesbianism. Sampling period was two months with ...

  13. Human health risk assessment for silver catfish Schilbe intermedius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-09-03

    Sep 3, 2014 ... of the Olifants River (Flag Boshielo Dam and the Phalaborwa Barrage) were measured, and a human health risk assessment following .... samples were stored at −80°C prior to analysis at an accredited laboratory (ISO/IEC ... methodology of the US Environmental Protection Agency. (US-EPA, 2000) as ...

  14. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  15. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  16. Personality factors and suicide risk in a representative sample of the German general population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Blüml

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Previous research has shown an association between certain personality characteristics and suicidality. Methodological differences including small sample sizes and missing adjustment for possible confounding factors could explain the varying results. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the Big Five personality dimensions on suicidality in a representative population based sample of adults. METHOD: Interviews were conducted in a representative German population-based sample (n=2555 in 2011. Personality characteristics were assessed using the Big Five Inventory-10 (BFI-10 and suicide risk was assessed with the Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R. Multivariate logistic regression models were calculated adjusting for depression, anxiety, and various sociodemographic variables. RESULTS: Neuroticism and openness were significantly associated with suicide risk, while extraversion and conscientiousness were found to be protective. Significant sex differences were observed. For males, extraversion and conscientiousness were protective factors. Neuroticism and openness were found to be associated with suicide risk only in females. These associations remained significant after adjusting for covariates. CONCLUSION: The results highlight the role of personality dimensions as risk factors for suicide-related behaviors. Different personality dimensions are significantly associated with suicide-related behaviors even when adjusting for other known risk factors of suicidality.

  17. Fuzzy logic for pipelines risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Alidoosti

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Pipelines systems are identified to be the safest way of transporting oil and natural gas. One of the most important aspects in developing pipeline systems is determining the potential risks that implementers may encounter. Therefore, risk analysis can determine critical risk items to allocate the limited resources and time. Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP is one of the best methodologies for assessing the security risks. However, the most challenging problem in this method is uncertainty. Therefore, fuzzy set theory is used to model the uncertainty. Thus, Fuzzy RAMCAP is introduced in order to risk analysis and management for pipeline systems. Finally, a notional example from pipeline systems is provided to demonstrate an application of the proposed methodology.

  18. Risk propensity assessment in military special operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, B; Jouve, E; Blin, O

    2001-10-01

    Risk taking, decision making, and stress factors are strongly associated in military operations. The authors used the Bond and Lader mood and alertness scale and a new scale, Evaluation of Risks (EVAR), to assess risk proneness in a maritime counter-terrorism exercise. EVAR items are distributed among five factors: self-control, danger seeking, energy, impulsiveness, and invincibility. In the study, 10 pilots were submitted to strenuous night flights with limited sleep deprivation. Compared with baseline data, pilots reported an increase in impulsiveness, whereas EVAR factors were consistent in a control group composed of 9 navy crew member. Correlations were observed between mood and alertness and risk factors. These results illustrate how EVAR can be used to evaluate change in risk proneness in individuals submitted to various stressors. But further studies are required to weigh stress factors and environmental conditions in risk propensity with a larger population of various age and personality traits.

  19. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamali, K. [Dept. of Energy, Germantown, MD (United States). Core Technical Support and Facility Transition; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.; Sanzo, D.L. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1997-08-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.

  20. FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT OF AVIATION EVENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Sharov Valeriy

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the technique of fuzzy expert assessment of risk that existed at the time an event occurred. The risk assessment is based on matrix proposed by the Airline Risk Management Solution (ARMS Group. The matrix allows assessing such risks in the numerical values of the conditional average. The values of the indicators in the cells of the ma- trix obtained by use of data processing got from aviation insurance.In practice the risk assessment that existed at the time of the event is largely based on expert opinions, however ARMS Group does not offer the method of forming estimates expert group total opinion. Conventional methods of expert estimation and averaging of final grades is difficult due to the exponential nature of changes in risk values recorded in thecells, when considered by columns and by rows of the matrix.The proposed method of risk assessment uses the approach adopted in the formation of membership functions ac- cording to expert estimates in the theory of fuzzy sets. Experts are invited to classify each event according to one of the categories of potential damage and the effectiveness of barriers parry (defenses using all available information. Processing of results is conducted using the method of expert analysis of fuzzy data based on the approach of fuzzy set theory. The seriousness (damage of the occurrence and effectiveness of the barriers considered as linguistic variables, each of which has four term sets. This approach allows taking into account the opinions of experts and obtaining valid estimates of risk do not necessarily coincided with fixed values of matrix cells.

  1. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  2. Assessing osteoporosis risk factors in Spanish menopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez Pérez, José Antonio; Palacios, Santiago; García, Felipe Chavida; Pérez, Maite

    2011-10-01

    (1) To assess the prevalence of osteoporosis risk factors in Spanish menopausal women; (2) to detect medical and lifestyle risk factor differences between perimenopausal and postmenopausal women; (3) and to identify the main factors responsible for osteoporosis. Cross-sectional descriptive study encompassing women aged 45-65 across Spain. The study population sample was collected through random sampling and a total of 10,514 women were included. Socio-demographic, medical history, and lifestyle data were assessed. The prevalence of osteoporosis risk factors was 67.6%. The most common risk factors were physical inactivity (53.6%), use of medication related to osteoporosis risk (45.9%), and low calcium intake (30.1%). There were statistically significant differences between peri- and postmenopausal women in terms of smoking status, alcohol intake, personal history, poor dairy product intake, and medication use that could increase risk. Logistic regression analysis showed that osteoporosis was significantly associated with age, family history, age at onset of menopause, Kupperman Index, prolonged immobilization, weight loss, and other diseases that increase the probability of developing osteoporosis. A high prevalence of women taking osteoporosis risk-related medication was observed in our study. There was correlation between the menopausal symptoms' degree of severity and the risk of suffering from osteoporosis.

  3. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  4. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  5. Effect of sampling frequency on shoreline microbiology assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leecaster, Molly K.; Weisberg, Stephen B. [Southern California Coastal Water, Research Project, Westminster, CA (United States)

    2001-07-01

    More than 80,000 shoreline bacteriological samples are collected annually in southern California to protect beachgoer health, but sampling frequency varies from daily to monthly among sampling sites. To assess the effectiveness of various sampling frequencies, we used five years of data from 24 Los Angeles area sites that have been monitored daily to simulate five alternative sampling strategies: five weekdays, five days per week including a weekend day, three days per week, weekly, and monthly. For each of these sampling strategies, we included in the simulation the local custom of adaptive sampling, in which a site is resampled the following day if bacterial concentrations exceed the State of California's beach water quality standards. We found that sampling five times per week resulted in observing about 80% of the events in which State standards were exceeded. This frequency dropped to 55%, 25%, and 5% for three times per week, weekly, and monthly sampling, respectively. Adaptive sampling was ineffective because nearly 70% of the water quality exceedences were single-day events, even at the most frequently contaminated sites. This high frequency of single-day events is of concern because the public is typically notified about water quality conditions 24-48 h after samples are collected, meaning that most warnings are out-of-date when they are issued. (Author)

  6. Assessment of Suicide Risk: Validation of the Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk Index for the Portuguese Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Façanha, Jorge; Santos, Jose Carlos; Cutcliffe, John

    2016-08-01

    Mental health problems, particularly depression, are a major risk factor for suicide. Currently, there is no way to predict, with 100% accuracy, who will make a suicide attempt, but during a clinical interview, it is possible to assess the risk presented by each patient based on the investigation of risk and protective factors. The assessment of these factors helps health care professionals make decisions on the interventions to put into practice, thus contributing to reducing risk. The use of suicide risk assessment tools, properly validated for the population under consideration facilitate communication and information gathering, with clinical nurse specialists in mental health playing an important role. Because of the shortage of suicide risk assessment tools properly validated for the Portuguese population, it was our aim to translate, adapt and validate the Nurses Global Assessment of Suicide Risk (NGASR) for the Portuguese population. In this study, a questionnaire was applied to a sample of 109 patients with depressive symptoms and risk factors for suicidal behaviors. The analysis of the results showed that most sample participants had a very high risk of suicide. The study of the psychometric properties of the NGASR showed moderate internal consistency and good content and criterion validity. Content validity, obtained through a panel of experts, was consensual. The NGASR index had good criterion validity, showing strong correlation with the SIQ, BDI and DASS-21 (R=0.830, p<0.05). The principal components analysis showed 6 factors, and the 15 predictive variables explained 66.92% of the total variance. These results are similar to those obtained in studies conducted in other countries and, therefore, the application of the NGASR is believed to be reliable for the Portuguese population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Quality assurance guidance for field sampling and measurement assessment plates in support of EM environmental sampling and analysis activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-05-01

    This document is one of several guidance documents developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM). These documents support the EM Analytical Services Program (ASP) and are based on applicable regulatory requirements and DOE Orders. They address requirements in DOE Orders by providing guidance that pertains specifically to environmental restoration and waste management sampling and analysis activities. DOE 5700.6C Quality Assurance (QA) defines policy and requirements to establish QA programs ensuring that risks and environmental impacts are minimized and that safety, reliability, and performance are maximized. This is accomplished through the application of effective management systems commensurate with the risks imposed by the facility and the project. Every organization supporting EM`s environmental sampling and analysis activities must develop and document a QA program. Management of each organization is responsible for appropriate QA program implementation, assessment, and improvement. The collection of credible and cost-effective environmental data is critical to the long-term success of remedial and waste management actions performed at DOE facilities. Only well established and management supported assessment programs within each EM-support organization will enable DOE to demonstrate data quality. The purpose of this series of documents is to offer specific guidance for establishing an effective assessment program for EM`s environmental sampling and analysis (ESA) activities.

  8. Assessment of Risk for Recurrent Diverticulitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallinen, Ville; Mali, Juha; Leppäniemi, Ari; Mentula, Panu

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Recurrence of acute diverticulitis is common, and—especially complicated recurrence—causes significant morbidity. To prevent recurrence, selected patients have been offered prophylactic sigmoid resection. However, as there is no tool to predict whose diverticulitis will recur and, in particular, who will have complicated recurrence, the indications for sigmoid resections have been variable. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors predicting recurrence of acute diverticulitis. This is a retrospective cohort study of patients presenting with computed tomography–confirmed acute diverticulitis and treated nonresectionally during 2006 to 2010. Risk factors for recurrence were identified using uni- and multivariate Cox regression. A total of 512 patients were included. History of diverticulitis was an independent risk factor predicting uncomplicated recurrence of diverticulitis (1–2 earlier diverticulitis HR 1.6, 3 or more—HR 3.2). History of diverticulitis (HR 3.3), abscess (HR 6.2), and corticosteroid medication (HR 16.1) were independent risk factors for complicated recurrence. Based on regression coefficients, risk scoring was created: 1 point for history of diverticulitis, 2 points for abscess, and 3 points for corticosteroid medication. The risk score was unable to predict uncomplicated recurrence (AUC 0.48), but was able to predict complicated recurrence (AUC 0.80). Patients were further divided into low-risk (0–2 points) and high-risk (>2 points) groups. Low-risk and high-risk groups had 3% and 43% 5-year complicated recurrence rates, respectively. Risk for complicated recurrence of acute diverticulitis can be assessed using risk scoring. The risk for uncomplicated recurrence increases along with increasing number of previous diverticulitis. PMID:25715253

  9. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  10. Assessing and Mitigating Risks in Computer Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Netland, Lars-Helge

    2008-01-01

    When it comes to non-trivial networked computer systems, bulletproof security is very hard to achieve. Over a system's lifetime new security risks are likely to emerge from e.g. newly discovered classes of vulnerabilities or the arrival of new threat agents. Given the dynamic environment in which computer systems are deployed, continuous evaluations and adjustments are wiser than one-shot e orts for perfection. Security risk management focuses on assessing and treating security...

  11. Guyana Rice Supply Chain Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2011-01-01

    This report is the outcome of assessment and is intended as an advisory note to the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB) to enable them to identify a strategy and potential public investments to improve current risk-management practices in the rice supply chain. This report identifies the major risks facing the rice supply chain, ranks them in terms of the...

  12. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  13. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  14. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  15. Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana Open Bays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

    1995-06-23

    Data were collected prior to termination of discharge at three sites (including two open bay sites at Delacroix Island and Bay De Chene) for the risk assessments. The Delacroix Island Oil and Gas Field has been in production since the first well drilling in 1940; the Bay De Chene Field, since 1942. Concentrations of 226Ra, 228Ra, 210Po, and 228Th were measured in discharges. Radium conc. were measured in fish and shellfish tissues. Sediment PAH and metal conc. were also available. Benthos sampling was conducted. A survey of fishermen was conducted. The tiered risk assessment showed that human health risks from radium in produced water appear to be small; ecological risk from radium and other radionuclides in produced water also appear small. Many of the chemical contaminants discharged to open Louisiana bays appear to present little human health or ecological risk. A conservative screening analysis suggested potential risks to human health from Hg and Pb and a potential risk to ecological receptors from total effluent, Sb, Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni, Ag, Zn, and phenol in the water column and PAHs in sediment; quantitiative risk assessments are being done for these contaminants.

  16. Sensitivity analysis in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwieterin, M H; van Gerwen, S J

    2000-07-15

    The occurrence of foodborne disease remains a widespread problem in both the developing and the developed world. A systematic and quantitative evaluation of food safety is important to control the risk of foodborne diseases. World-wide, many initiatives are being taken to develop quantitative risk analysis. However, the quantitative evaluation of food safety in all its aspects is very complex, especially since in many cases specific parameter values are not available. Often many variables have large statistical variability while the quantitative effect of various phenomena is unknown. Therefore, sensitivity analysis can be a useful tool to determine the main risk-determining phenomena, as well as the aspects that mainly determine the inaccuracy in the risk estimate. This paper presents three stages of sensitivity analysis. First, deterministic analysis selects the most relevant determinants for risk. Overlooking of exceptional, but relevant cases is prevented by a second, worst-case analysis. This analysis finds relevant process steps in worst-case situations, and shows the relevance of variations of factors for risk. The third, stochastic analysis, studies the effects of variations of factors for the variability of risk estimates. Care must be taken that the assumptions made as well as the results are clearly communicated. Stochastic risk estimates are, like deterministic ones, just as good (or bad) as the available data, and the stochastic analysis must not be used to mask lack of information. Sensitivity analysis is a valuable tool in quantitative risk assessment by determining critical aspects and effects of variations.

  17. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE DYE AND PIGMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This risk assessment calculates the maximum loadings of constituents found in dyes and pigment industries waste streams which can be disposed in different types of waste management units without causing health benchmarks to be exceeded at plausible receptor locations. The assessment focuses on potential risks from volatilization and leaching to groundwater of constituents disposed in surface impoundments and landfills with either clay liners or composite liners. This product will be used by EPA decision makers to assist in determining whether certain waste streams generated by the dyes and pigments industries should be designated as hazardous.

  18. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...

  19. Atherogenic Risk Assessment among Persons Living in Rural Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Wekesa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Hypertension and dyslipidemia are independent risk factors for coronary heart disease and commonly coexist. Cardiovascular risk can be reliably predicted using lipid ratios such as the atherogenic index, a useful prognostic parameter for guiding timely interventions. Objective. We assessed the cardiovascular risk profile based on the atherogenic index of residents within a rural Ugandan cohort. Methods. In 2011, a population based survey was conducted among 7507 participants. Sociodemographic characteristics, physical measurements (blood pressure, weight, height, and waist and hip circumference, and blood sampling for nonfasting lipid profile were collected for each participant. Atherogenic risk profile, defined as logarithm base ten of (triglyceride divided by high density lipoprotein cholesterol, was categorised as low risk (0.24. Results. Fifty-five percent of participants were female and the mean age was 49.9 years (SD±20.2. Forty-two percent of participants had high and intermediate atherogenic risk. Persons with hypertension, untreated HIV infection, abnormal glycaemia, and obesity and living in less urbanised villages were more at risk. Conclusion. A significant proportion of persons in this rural population are at risk of atherosclerosis. Key identified populations at risk should be considered for future intervention against cardiovascular related morbidity and mortality. The study however used parameters from unfasted samples that may have a bearing on observed results.

  20. Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

  1. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  2. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  3. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  4. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Apel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the 'German Research Network of Natural Disasters' (DFNK the working group 'Flood Risk Analysis' investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system. The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results

  5. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Assessment of dust sampling methods for the study of cultivable-microorganism exposure in stables.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Normand, A.C.; Vacheyrou, M.; Sudre, B.; Heederik, D.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/072910542; Piarroux, R.

    2009-01-01

    Studies have shown a link between living on a farm, exposure to microbial components (e.g., endotoxins or beta-d-glucans), and a lower risk for allergic diseases and asthma. Due to the lack of validated sampling methods, studies of asthma and atopy have not relied on exposure assessment based on

  7. External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Powell, Troy C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Two risk assessment algorithms and philosophies have been augmented and combined to form a new algorit hm, the External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA), that allows for effective and statistically sound analysis of external threat sources in relation to individual attack methods . In addition to the attack method use probability and the attack method employment consequence, t he concept of defining threat sources is added to the risk assessment process. Sample data is tabulated and depicted in radar plots and bar graphs for algorithm demonstration purposes. The largest success of ExTRAA is its ability to visualize the kind of r isk posed in a given situation using the radar plot method.

  8. Genomic data sampling and its effect on classification performance assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azuaje Francisco

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Supervised classification is fundamental in bioinformatics. Machine learning models, such as neural networks, have been applied to discover genes and expression patterns. This process is achieved by implementing training and test phases. In the training phase, a set of cases and their respective labels are used to build a classifier. During testing, the classifier is used to predict new cases. One approach to assessing its predictive quality is to estimate its accuracy during the test phase. Key limitations appear when dealing with small-data samples. This paper investigates the effect of data sampling techniques on the assessment of neural network classifiers. Results Three data sampling techniques were studied: Cross-validation, leave-one-out, and bootstrap. These methods are designed to reduce the bias and variance of small-sample estimations. Two prediction problems based on small-sample sets were considered: Classification of microarray data originating from a leukemia study and from small, round blue-cell tumours. A third problem, the prediction of splice-junctions, was analysed to perform comparisons. Different accuracy estimations were produced for each problem. The variations are accentuated in the small-data samples. The quality of the estimates depends on the number of train-test experiments and the amount of data used for training the networks. Conclusion The predictive quality assessment of biomolecular data classifiers depends on the data size, sampling techniques and the number of train-test experiments. Conservative and optimistic accuracy estimations can be obtained by applying different methods. Guidelines are suggested to select a sampling technique according to the complexity of the prediction problem under consideration.

  9. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  10. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  11. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  12. Building caries risk assessment models for children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, X-L; Hsu, C-Y S; Xu, Y; Hwarng, H B; Loh, T; Koh, D

    2010-06-01

    Despite the well-recognized importance of caries risk assessment, practical models remain to be established. This study was designed to develop biopsychosocial models for caries risk assessment in various settings. With a questionnaire, an oral examination, and biological (salivary, microbiological, and plaque pH) tests, a prospective study was conducted among 1782 children aged 3-6 years, with 1576 (88.4%) participants followed in 12 months. Multiple risk factors, indicators, and protective factors were identified. Various risk assessment models were constructed by the random selection of 50% of the cases and further validated in the remaining cases. For the prediction of a "one-year caries increment", screening models without biological tests achieved a sensitivity/specificity of 82%/73%; with biological tests, full-blown models achieved the sensitivity/specificity of 90%/90%. For identification of a quarter of the children with high caries burden (baseline dmft > 2), a community-screening model requiring only a questionnaire reached a sensitivity/specificity of 82%/81%. These models are promising tools for cost-effective caries control and evidence-based treatment planning. decayed, missing, filled teeth in primary dentition (dmft); receiver operation characteristics (ROC); relative risk (RR); confidence interval (CI); National Institutes of Health (NIH); World Health Organization (WHO); US Department of Health and Human Services (US/DHHS); American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry (AAPD).

  13. a preliminary assessment of groundwater samples around a filling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Home

    This paper is a preliminary assessment of groundwater samples around a filling station in Diobu area of Port. Harcourt for four years at ... while Ec, TDS, Cl, Fe, TSS, salinity, hardness may be due to saltwater intrusion from the sea. The anthropogenic .... soil, Bm is the background concentration (value) of metal, either taken ...

  14. Research Note Pilot survey to assess sample size for herbaceous ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A pilot survey to determine sub-sample size (number of point observations per plot) for herbaceous species composition assessments, using a wheel-point apparatus applying the nearest-plant method, was conducted. Three plots differing in species composition on the Zululand coastal plain were selected, and on each plot ...

  15. Jet reliability study Survey and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Esteban, G.

    2015-07-01

    Culham Center for Fusion Energy (CCFE) in UK has been contracted to undertake a second Deuterium-Tritium Experiment (DTE2) using Join European Torus (JET) in 2017, in support of technical developments for the ITER project. In order to manage risks of delay or early project termination CCFE has adopted a risk based inspection (RBI) process to identify the systems which could influence the successful delivery of DTE2 and in turn to identify by a basic risk assessment process those systems or components which require mitigating action in order to minimize risk. In this context, the primary purpose of the RBI is to address issues of reliability and satisfactory functionality in a similar way to that which a power plant operator would take to address its commercial risks in the event of loss of generating capacity. The objective of this presentation is describe the activities developed for Idom to deliver the survey, interviews and risk assessment of different systems of JET with the aim to identify the critical components and system that could affect the operation of JET during the DTE2 experiment. (Author)

  16. Health Risk Assessment for Organotins in Textiles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen PJCM; Veen MP van; Speijers GJA; CSR; LBM

    2000-01-01

    In January 1998 RIVM was asked to carry out a preliminary risk assessment on organic tin compounds (organotins) in textiles. Measurements carried out by the Dutch Health Protection Inspectorate had shown these potentially toxic compounds to be present in several consumer products, including items of

  17. Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment extended periods could result in communications disruptions or congestion , if...function. Concern Threats to BGP and other interdomain router operating systems and intra-domain protocols are the primary vulnerabilities within the...facilities [C] Negatively affect ASN/IP block allocation [C] Impair Crisis response [C] Interdomain /Backbone connectivity impact [V] BGP [V

  18. Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Jane

    2011-09-30

    Sep 30, 2011 ... Key words: Risk assessment, biosafety, Malaysian Biosafety Act 2007, genetically modified organisms. (GMOs). INTRODUCTION. Nowadays, with ... from the early stages of genetic engineering, legal frameworks were set up to ensure the ..... Since the advances in gene technology have led to speculation ...

  19. Next generation of microbiological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den Heidy M.W.; Amézquita, Alejandro; Bover-Cid, Sara; Dagnas, Stéphane; Ellouze, Mariem; Guillou, Sandrine; Nychas, George; O'Mahony, Cian; Pérez-Rodriguez, Fernando; Membré, Jeanne Marie

    2017-01-01

    In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now

  20. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  1. Instrument Development for Nanomaterial Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brossell, D.

    2016-01-01

    Nanomaterials are a growing source for innovation. However, the very properties that make them so effective for their desired purpose might also render them more hazardous towards humans and the environment. Adequate risk assessment tools are often missing, partly due to instrumental gaps in

  2. Ecological Risk Assessment in Water Resource Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The US EPA published guidelines for the application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in the USA in 1998 (US EPA 1998). The process diagram derived by Murray and Claassen (1999) in an evaluation of the US EPA framework is discussed in the context of the South African National Water Act. The evaluation discusses ...

  3. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides, organic

  4. Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

    2017-06-04

    This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as "relatively low", contrasting with 21.4% rated as "relatively high". Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders.

  5. Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiejing Hao

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC. The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as “relatively low”, contrasting with 21.4% rated as “relatively high”. Most of the respondents (62.7% did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders.

  6. exLOPA for explosion risks assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markowski, Adam S

    2007-04-11

    The European Union regulations require safety and health protection of workers who are potentially at risk from explosive atmosphere areas. According to the requirements, the operators of installations where potentially explosive atmosphere can occur are obliged to produce an explosion protection document. The key objective of this document is the assessment of explosion risks. This paper is concerned with the so-called explosion layer of protection analysis (exLOPA), which allows for semi-quantitative explosion risk assessment for process plants where explosive atmospheres occur. The exLOPA is based on the original work of CCPS for LOPA but takes into account some typical factors appropriate for explosion, like the probability that an explosive atmosphere will occur, probability that sources of ignition will be present and become effective as well as the probability of failure on demand for appropriate explosion prevention and mitigation means.

  7. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  8. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  9. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  10. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G.; Bos, Peter M. J.

    2017-01-01

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models. PMID:29048395

  11. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  12. Risk assessment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Kristina D; Gerba, Charles P

    2009-01-01

    drinking water industry, very little has been reported regarding the role of P. aeruginosa in biofilms. Tap water appears to be a significant route of transmission in hospitals, from colonization of plumbing fixtures. It is still not clear if the colonization results from the water in the distribution system, or personnel use within the hospital. Infections and colonization can be significantly reduced by placement of filters on the water taps. The oral dose of P. aeruginosa required to establish colonization in a healthy subject is high (George et al. 1989a). During dose-response studies, even when subjects (mice or humans) were colonized via ingestion, there was no evidence of disease. P. aeruginosa administered by the aerosol route at levels of 10(7) cells did cause disease symptoms in mice, and was lethal in aerosolized doses of 10(9) cells. Aerosol dose-response studies have not been undertaken with human subjects. Human health risks associated with exposure to P. aeruginosa via drinking water ingestion were estimated using a four-step risk assessment approach. The risk of colonization from ingesting P. aeruginosa in drinking water is low. The risk is slightly higher if the subject is taking an antibiotic resisted by P. aeruginosa. The fact that individuals on ampicillin are more susceptible to Pseudomonas gastrointestinal infection probably results from suppression of normal intestinal flora, which would allow Pseudomonas to colonize. The process of estimating risk was significantly constrained because of the absence of specific (quantitative) occurrence data for Pseudomonas. Sensitivity analysis shows that the greatest source of variability/uncertainty in the risk assessment is from the density distribution in the exposure rather than the dose-response or water consumption distributions. In summary, two routes appear to carry the greatest health risks from contacting water contaminated with P. aeruginosa (1) skin exposure in hot tubs and (2) lung exposure from

  13. Alcohol, drugs, and links to sexual risk behaviors among a sample of Virginia college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enyeart Smith, Theresa M; Wessel, Maria T

    2011-01-01

    This project was significant in that it administered the National College Health Risk Behavior Survey (NCHRBS), a health risk assessment, to a sample of students at three public universities in Virginia. Virginia was never included in the original or subsequent nationwide assessments using this instrument. This health risk assessment is comprehensive, easy to administer, and free. The NCHRBS assesses risk behaviors in six categories including: (1) behaviors that contribute to unintentional and intentional injuries; (2) tobacco use; (3) alcohol and other drug use; (4) sexual behaviors that contribute to unintended pregnancy and STDs, including the HIV infection; (5) unhealthy dietary behaviors; and (6) physical inactivity. This article focuses on student responses to questions about alcohol and other drugs and sexual behaviors linked to the use of these substances. It provided baseline data on health risk behaviors of college students which can help determine wellness/health education course objectives and health promotion programming and services provided to the students within the universities. In addition, this project provided protocol to expand use of the survey statewide.

  14. Integrated ecological risk assessment of dioxin compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sany, Seyedeh Belin Tavakoly; Hashim, Rosli; Rezayi, Majid; Rahman, Mohammad Azizur; Razavizadeh, Bi Bi Marzieh; Abouzari-lotf, Ebrahim; Karlen, David J

    2015-08-01

    Current ecological risk assessment (ERA) schemes focus mainly on bioaccumulation and toxicity of pollutants in individual organisms. Ecological models are tools mainly used to assess ecological risks of pollutants to ecosystems, communities, and populations. Their main advantage is the relatively direct integration of the species sensitivity to organic pollutants, the fate and mechanism of action in the environment of toxicants, and life-history features of the individual organism of concern. To promote scientific consensus on ERA schemes, this review is intended to provide a guideline on short-term ERA involving dioxin chemicals and to identify key findings for exposure assessment based on policies of different agencies. It also presents possible adverse effects of dioxins on ecosystems, toxicity equivalence methodology, environmental fate and transport modeling, and development of stressor-response profiles for dioxin-like chemicals.

  15. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  16. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickol, Craig L.

    2008-01-01

    A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

  18. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  19. Validation of the High-Risk Pregnancy Stress Scale in a sample of hospitalized Greek high-risk pregnant women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourounti, Kleanthi; Karpathiotaki, Natassa; Karapanou, Vassiliki; Antzaklis, Panos; Daskalakis, Georgios

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the authors in this study was to determine the psychometric properties of the Greek adaptation of the High-Risk Pregnancy Stress Scale (HRPSS) in a sample of high-risk hospitalized pregnant women. The sample consisted of 133 high-risk pregnant women with gestational age from 9 to 37 weeks. Data were collected between February and June of 2014. HRPSS was "forward-backward" translated from English to Greek. Principal axis factoring with promax rotation was used to test the factor structure of the HRPSS. Measures of state anxiety (STAI) and depressive symptoms (EPDS) were used to assess the convergent validity of the HRPSS. Exploratory factor analysis suggested three factors: concerns of pregnancy, movement restriction, and isolation and restriction of external activities. Construct validity was confirmed by computing correlations between the HRPSS and constructions of anxiety and depressive symptoms. Internal consistency reliability was satisfactory (α = 0.813). The original factor structure of the HRPSS was only partly replicated. The results of the exploratory factor analysis suggested that a three-factor solution instead of a two-factor solution would be the most adequate. The HRPSS is an appropriate measure for assessing the levels of concerns regarding pregnancy outcome, movement restriction, isolation, and external activity restrictions in Greek high-risk pregnant women.

  20. Assessing calibration of prognostic risk scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowson, Cynthia S; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Therneau, Terry M

    2016-08-01

    Current methods used to assess calibration are limited, particularly in the assessment of prognostic models. Methods for testing and visualizing calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration slope) have been well thought out in the binary regression setting. However, extension of these methods to Cox models is less well known and could be improved. We describe a model-based framework for the assessment of calibration in the binary setting that provides natural extensions to the survival data setting. We show that Poisson regression models can be used to easily assess calibration in prognostic models. In addition, we show that a calibration test suggested for use in survival data has poor performance. Finally, we apply these methods to the problem of external validation of a risk score developed for the general population when assessed in a special patient population (i.e. patients with particular comorbidities, such as rheumatoid arthritis). © The Author(s) 2013.

  1. Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment: Overview of Exposure Assessment, Whole Mixtures Assessments; Basic Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    This problems-based, half-day, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks f...

  2. Lead (Pb) quantification in potable water samples: implications for regulatory compliance and assessment of human exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllidou, Simoni; Nguyen, Caroline K; Zhang, Yan; Edwards, Marc A

    2013-02-01

    Assessing the health risk from lead (Pb) in potable water requires accurate quantification of the Pb concentration. Under worst-case scenarios of highly contaminated water samples, representative of public health concerns, up to 71-98 % of the total Pb was not quantified if water samples were not mixed thoroughly after standard preservation (i.e., addition of 0.15 % (v/v) HNO(3)). Thorough mixing after standard preservation improved recovery in all samples, but 35-81 % of the total Pb was still un-quantified in some samples. Transfer of samples from one bottle to another also created high errors (40-100 % of the total Pb was un-quantified in transferred samples). Although the United States Environmental Protection Agency's standard protocol avoids most of these errors, certain methods considered EPA-equivalent allow these errors for regulatory compliance sampling. Moreover, routine monitoring for assessment of human Pb exposure in the USA has no standardized protocols for water sample handling and pre-treatment. Overall, while there is no reason to believe that sample handling and pre-treatment dramatically skew regulatory compliance with the US Pb action level, slight variations from one approved protocol to another may cause Pb-in-water health risks to be significantly underestimated, especially for unusual situations of "worst case" individual exposure to highly contaminated water.

  3. Examples of Optical Assessment of Surface Cleanliness of Genesis Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, Melissa C.; Allton, J. H.; Burkett, P. J.; Gonzalez, C. P.

    2013-01-01

    Optical microscope assessment of Genesis solar wind collector surfaces is a coordinated part of the effort to obtain an assessed clean subset of flown wafer material for the scientific community. Microscopic survey is typically done at 50X magnification at selected approximately 1 square millimeter areas on the fragment surface. This survey is performed each time a principle investigator (PI) returns a sample to JSC for documentation as part of the established cleaning plan. The cleaning plan encompasses sample handling and analysis by Genesis science team members, and optical survey is done at each step in the process. Sample surface cleaning is performed at JSC (ultrapure water [1] and UV ozone cleaning [2]) and experimentally by other science team members (acid etch [3], acetate replica peels [4], CO2 snow [5], etc.). The documentation of each cleaning method can potentially be assessed with optical observation utilizing Image Pro Plus software [6]. Differences in particle counts can be studied and discussed within analysis groups. Approximately 25 samples have been identified as part of the cleaning matrix effort to date.

  4. Assessment of efficient sampling designs for urban stormwater monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leecaster, Molly K; Schiff, Kenneth; Tiefenthaler, Liesl L

    2002-03-01

    Monitoring programs for urban runoff have not been assessed for effectiveness or efficiency in estimating mass emissions. In order to determine appropriate designs for stormwater, total suspended solids (TSS) and flow information from the Santa Ana River was collected nearly every 15 min for every storm of the 1998 water year. All samples were used to calculate the "true load" and then three within-storm sampling designs (flow-interval, time-interval, and simple random) and five among-storm sampling designs (stratified by size, stratified by season, simple random, simple random of medium and large storms, and the first m storms of the season) were simulated. Using these designs, we evaluated three estimators for storm mass emissions (mean, volume-weighted, and ratio) and three estimators for annual mass emissions (median, ratio, and regular). Designs and estimators were evaluated with respect to accuracy and precision. The optimal strategy was used to determine the appropriate number of storms to sample annually based upon confidence interval width for estimates of annual mass emissions and concentration. The amount of detectable trend in mass emissions and concentration was determined for sample sizes 3 and 7. Single storms were most efficiently characterized (small bias and standard error) by taking 12 samples following a flow-interval schedule and using a volume-weighted estimator of mass emissions. The ratio estimator, when coupled with the simple random sample of medium and large storms within a season, most accurately estimated concentration and mass emissions; and had low bias over all of the designs. Sampling seven storms is the most efficient method for attaining small confidence interval width for annual concentration. Sampling three storms per year allows a 20% trend to be detected in mass emissions or concentration over five years. These results are decreased by 10% by sampling seven storms per year.

  5. Incremental Validity Analyses of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version in a Civil Psychiatric Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edens, John F.; Skeem, Jennifer L.; Douglas, Kevin S.

    2006-01-01

    This study compares two instruments frequently used to assess risk for violence, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV), in a large sample of civil psychiatric patients. Despite a strong bivariate relationship with community violence, the VRAG could not improve on the predictive validity…

  6. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  7. Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM: Groundwater Risk Assessment Model for Wellfield Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nara Somaratne

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A groundwater risk assessment was carried out for 30 potable water supply systems under a framework of protecting drinking water quality across South Australia. A semi-quantitative Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM was developed based on a “multi-barrier” approach using likelihood of release, contaminant pathway and consequence equation. Groundwater vulnerability and well integrity have been incorporated to the pathway component of the risk equation. The land use of the study basins varies from protected water reserves to heavily stocked grazing lands. Based on the risk assessment, 15 systems were considered as low risk, four as medium and 11 systems as at high risk. The GRAM risk levels were comparable with indicator bacteria—total coliform—detection. Most high risk systems were the result of poor well construction and casing corrosion rather than the land use. We carried out risk management actions, including changes to well designs and well operational practices, design to increase time of residence and setting the production zone below identified low permeable zones to provide additional barriers to contaminants. The highlight of the risk management element is the well integrity testing using down hole geophysical methods and camera views of the casing condition.

  8. miRNA expression profiling enables risk stratification in archived and fresh neuroblastoma tumor samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Preter, Katleen; Mestdagh, Pieter; Vermeulen, Joëlle; Zeka, Fjoralba; Naranjo, Arlene; Bray, Isabella; Castel, Victoria; Chen, Caifu; Drozynska, Elzbieta; Eggert, Angelika; Hogarty, Michael D; Izycka-Swieszewska, Ewa; London, Wendy B; Noguera, Rosa; Piqueras, Marta; Bryan, Kenneth; Schowe, Benjamin; van Sluis, Peter; Molenaar, Jan J; Schramm, Alexander; Schulte, Johannes H; Stallings, Raymond L; Versteeg, Rogier; Laureys, Geneviève; Van Roy, Nadine; Speleman, Frank; Vandesompele, Jo

    2011-12-15

    More accurate assessment of prognosis is important to further improve the choice of risk-related therapy in neuroblastoma (NB) patients. In this study, we aimed to establish and validate a prognostic miRNA signature for children with NB and tested it in both fresh frozen and archived formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples. Four hundred-thirty human mature miRNAs were profiled in two patient subgroups with maximally divergent clinical courses. Univariate logistic regression analysis was used to select miRNAs correlating with NB patient survival. A 25-miRNA gene signature was built using 51 training samples, tested on 179 test samples, and validated on an independent set of 304 fresh frozen tumor samples and 75 archived FFPE samples. The 25-miRNA signature significantly discriminates the test patients with respect to progression-free and overall survival (P < 0.0001), both in the overall population and in the cohort of high-risk patients. Multivariate analysis indicates that the miRNA signature is an independent predictor of patient survival after controlling for current risk factors. The results were confirmed in an external validation set. In contrast to a previously published mRNA classifier, the 25-miRNA signature was found to be predictive for patient survival in a set of 75 FFPE neuroblastoma samples. In this study, we present the largest NB miRNA expression study so far, including more than 500 NB patients. We established and validated a robust miRNA classifier, able to identify a cohort of high-risk NB patients at greater risk for adverse outcome using both fresh frozen and archived material. ©2011 AACR.

  9. Computerized experience-sampling approach for realtime assessment of stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Serino

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The incredible advancement in the ICT sector has challenged technology developers, designers, and psychologists to reflect on how to develop technologies to promote mental health. Computerized experience-sampling method appears to be a promising assessment approach to investigate the real-time fluctuation of experience in daily life in order to detect stressful events. At this purpose, we developed PsychLog (http://psychlog.com a free open-source mobile experience sampling platform that allows psychophysiological data to be collected, aggregated, visualized and collated into reports. Results showed a good classification of relaxing and stressful events, defining the two groups with psychological analysis and verifying the discrimination with physiological measures. Within the paradigm of Positive Technology, our innovative approach offers for researchers and clinicians new effective opportunities for the assessment and treatment of the psychological stress in daily situations.

  10. Equilibrium sampling for a thermodynamic assessment of contaminated sediments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mayer, Philipp; Nørgaard Schmidt, Stine; Mäenpää, Kimmo

    ) govern diffusive uptake and partitioning. Equilibrium sampling of sediment was introduced 15 years ago to measure Cfree, and it has since developed into a straightforward, precise and sensitive approach for determining Cfree and other exposure parameters that allow for thermodynamic assessment...... of the biota relative to the sediment. Furthermore, concentrations in lipid at thermodynamic equilibrium with sediment (Clip?Sed) can be calculated via lipid/silicone partition ratios CSil × KLip:Sil, which has been done in studies with limnic, river and marine sediments. The data can then be compared to lipid...... will focus at the latest developments in equilibrium sampling concepts and methods. Further, we will explain how these approaches can provide a new basis for a thermodynamic assessment of polluted sediments....

  11. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  12. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  13. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  14. Risk Assessment for Destructive Re-Entry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lips, T.; Koppenwallner, G.; Bianchi, L.; Klinkrad, H.

    2009-03-01

    From 2007 to 2008, Hypersonic Technology Göttingen (HTG) worked on a study called Risk Assessment for Destructive Re-entry (RADR). The main purposes of this study were to identify and to quantify the inherent uncertainties of re-entry analysis tools, and to provide possible risk mitigation measures. For these purposes, three basic risk scenarios were specified: a 1-ton-class satellite without propulsion for uncontrolled re-entry, a 6-ton-class satellite with propulsion and the capability to perform a controlled re-entry, and a 1-ton-class launcher upper stage re-entering uncontrolled. Based on the identified uncertainty parameters, variation analyses were conducted for these scenarios with the two ESA tools for re-entry analysis SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Reentry and Aerothermal Breakup) and SESAM (Spacecraft Entry Survival Analysis Module). This paper describes the major results of the RADR study.

  15. Degraded Environments Alter Prey Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I; Chivers, Douglas P

    2013-01-01

    Elevated water temperatures, a decrease in ocean pH, and an increasing prevalence of severe storms have lead to bleaching and death of the hard corals that underpin coral reef ecosystems. As coral cover declines, fish diversity and abundance declines. How degradation of coral reefs affects behavior of reef inhabitants is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that risk assessment behaviors of prey are severely affected by coral degradation. Juvenile damselfish were exposed to visual and olfactory indicators of predation risk in healthy live, thermally bleached, and dead coral in a series of laboratory and field experiments. While fish still responded to visual cues in all habitats, they did not respond to olfactory indicators of risk in dead coral habitats, likely as a result of alteration or degradation of chemical cues. These cues are critical for learning and avoiding predators, and a failure to respond can have dramatic repercussions for survival and recruitment. PMID:23403754

  16. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  17. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  18. Assessing glacial lake outburst flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Cook, Simon; Jomelli, Vincent; Clarke, Leon; Symeonakis, Elias

    2017-04-01

    Glaciers across the world are thinning and receding in response to atmospheric warming. Glaciers tend to erode subglacial basins and deposit eroded materials around their margins as lateral-frontal terminal moraines. Recession into these basins and behind impounding moraines causes meltwater to pond as proglacial and supraglacial lakes. Consequently, there has been a general trend of increasing number and size of these lakes associated with glacier melting in many mountainous regions around the globe, in the last 30 years. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) then may occur where the glacial lake dam (ice, rock, moraine, or combination thereof) is breached, or overtopped, and thousands of people have lost their lives to such events in the last few decades, especially in the Andes and in the Himalaya. Given the ongoing and arguably increasing risk posed to downstream communities, and infrastructure, there has been a proliferation of GLOF studies, with many seeking to estimate GLOF hazard or risk in specific regions, or to identify 'potentially dangerous glacial lakes'. Given the increased scientific interest in GLOFs, it is timely to evaluate critically the ways in which GLOF risk has been assessed previously, and whether there are improvements that can be made to the ways in which risk assessment is achieved. We argue that, whilst existing GLOF hazard and risk assessments have been extremely valuable they often suffer from a number of key shortcomings that can be addressed by using different techniques as multi-criteria decision analysis and hydraulic modelling borrowed from disciplines like engineering, remote sensing and operations research.

  19. Yellow fever risk assessment in the Central African Republic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staples, J Erin; Diallo, Mawlouth; Janusz, Kristen B; Manengu, Casimir; Lewis, Rosamund F; Perea, William; Yactayo, Sergio; Sall, Amadou A

    2014-10-01

    Starting in 2008, the Central African Republic (CAR) experienced an unprecedented number of reported yellow fever (YF) cases. A risk assessment of YF virus (YFV) activity was conducted to estimate potential disease risk and vaccine needs. A multistage cluster sampling design was used to sample humans, non-human primates, and mosquitoes in distinct ecologic zones. Humans and non-human primates were tested for YFV-specific antibodies; mosquitoes were tested for YFV RNA. Overall, 13.3% (125/938) of humans were found to have naturally-acquired YFV antibodies. Antibody levels were higher in zones in the southern and south central regions of CAR. All sampled non-human primates (n=56) were known YFV reservoirs; one tested positive for YFV antibodies. Several known YF vectors were identified including Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, Ae. luteocephalus, and Ae. simpsoni. Several more urban locations were found to have elevated Breateau and Container indices for Ae. aegypti. A country-wide assessment of YF risk found YFV to be endemic in CAR. The potential for future YF cases and outbreaks, however, varied by ecologic zone. Improved vaccination coverage through mass campaign and childhood immunization was recommended to mitigate the YF risk. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Kelly, S.

    2013-01-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for th...

  1. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  2. Importance of Numeracy as a Risk Factor for Elder Financial Exploitation in a Community Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Stacey A; Liu, Pi-Ju; Hanoch, Yaniv; Estevez-Cores, Sara

    2016-11-01

    To examine the role of numeracy, or comfort with numbers, as a potential risk factor for financial elder exploitation in a community sample. Individually administered surveys were given to 201 independent, community-dwelling adults aged 60 and older. Risk for financial elder exploitation was assessed using the Older Adult Financial Exploitation Measure (OAFEM). Other variables of interest included numeracy, executive functioning, and other risk factors identified from the literature. Assessments were completed individually at the Wood Lab at Scripps College in Claremont, CA and neighboring community centers. After controlling for other variables, including education, lower numeracy was related to higher scores on the OAFEM consistent with higher risk for financial exploitation. Self-reported physical and mental health, male gender, and younger age were also related to increased risk. Results indicated that numeracy is a significant risk factor for elder financial exploitation after controlling for other commonly reported variables. These findings are consistent with the broader literature relating numeracy to wealth and debt levels and extend them to the area of elder financial exploitation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Quantum chemistry in environmental pesticide risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villaverde, Juan J; López-Goti, Carmen; Alcamí, Manuel; Lamsabhi, Al Mokhtar; Alonso-Prados, José L; Sandín-España, Pilar

    2017-11-01

    The scientific community and regulatory bodies worldwide, currently promote the development of non-experimental tests that produce reliable data for pesticide risk assessment. The use of standard quantum chemistry methods could allow the development of tools to perform a first screening of compounds to be considered for the experimental studies, improving the risk assessment. This fact results in a better distribution of resources and in better planning, allowing a more exhaustive study of the pesticides and their metabolic products. The current paper explores the potential of quantum chemistry in modelling toxicity and environmental behaviour of pesticides and their by-products by using electronic descriptors obtained computationally. Quantum chemistry has potential to estimate the physico-chemical properties of pesticides, including certain chemical reaction mechanisms and their degradation pathways, allowing modelling of the environmental behaviour of both pesticides and their by-products. In this sense, theoretical methods can contribute to performing a more focused risk assessment of pesticides used in the market, and may lead to higher quality and safer agricultural products. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  4. Weighted normalized risk factor for floods risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Mohamed Elmoustafa

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA describes any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where options accomplish certain or several objectives. The flood protection of properties is a highly important issue due to the damage, danger and other hazards associated to it to human life, properties, and environment. To determine the priority of execution of protection works for any project, many aspects should be considered in order to decide the areas to start the data collection and analysis with. Multi criteria analysis techniques were tested and evaluated for the purpose of flood risk assessment, hydro-morphological parameters were used in this analysis. Finally a suitable technique was chosen and tested to be adopted as a mark of flood risk level and results were presented.

  5. Assessment of the 296-S-21 Stack Sampling Probe Location

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glissmeyer, John A.

    2006-09-08

    Tests were performed to assess the suitability of the location of the air sampling probe on the 296-S-21 stack according to the criteria of ANSI N13.1-1999, Sampling and Monitoring Releases of Airborne Radioactive Substances from the Stacks and Ducts of Nuclear Facilities. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory conducted most tests on a 3.67:1 scale model of the stack. CH2MHill also performed some limited confirmatory tests on the actual stack. The tests assessed the capability of the air-monitoring probe to extract a sample representative of the effluent stream. The tests were conducted for the practical combinations of operating fans and addressed: (1) Angular Flow--The purpose is to determine whether the velocity vector is aligned with the sampling nozzle. The average yaw angle relative to the nozzle axis should not be more than 20. The measured values ranged from 5 to 11 degrees on the scale model and 10 to 12 degrees on the actual stack. (2) Uniform Air Velocity--The gas momentum across the stack cross section where the sample is extracted should be well mixed or uniform. The uniformity is expressed as the variability of the measurements about the mean, the coefficient of variance (COV). The lower the COV value, the more uniform the velocity. The acceptance criterion is that the COV of the air velocity must be ?20% across the center two-thirds of the area of the stack. At the location simulating the sampling probe, the measured values ranged form 4 to 11%, which are within the criterion. To confirm the validity of the scale model results, air velocity uniformity measurements were made both on the actual stack and on the scale model at the test ports 1.5 stack diameters upstream of the sampling probe. The results ranged from 6 to 8% COV on the actual stack and 10 to 13% COV on the scale model. The average difference for the eight runs was 4.8% COV, which is within the validation criterion. The fact that the scale model results were slightly higher than the

  6. Sample size requirement in analytical studies for similarity assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Shein-Chung; Song, Fuyu; Bai, He

    2017-01-01

    For the assessment of biosimilar products, the FDA recommends a stepwise approach for obtaining the totality-of-the-evidence for assessing biosimilarity between a proposed biosimilar product and its corresponding innovative biologic product. The stepwise approach starts with analytical studies for assessing similarity in critical quality attributes (CQAs), which are relevant to clinical outcomes at various stages of the manufacturing process. For CQAs that are the most relevant to clinical outcomes, the FDA requires an equivalence test be performed for similarity assessment based on an equivalence acceptance criterion (EAC) that is obtained using a single test value of some selected reference lots. In practice, we often have extremely imbalanced numbers of reference and test lots available for the establishment of EAC. In this case, to assist the sponsors, the FDA proposed an idea for determining the number of reference lots and the number of test lots required in order not to have imbalanced sample sizes when establishing EAC for the equivalence test based on extensive simulation studies. Along this line, this article not only provides statistical justification of Dong, Tsong, and Weng's proposal, but also proposes an alternative method for sample size requirement for the Tier 1 equivalence test.

  7. Knowledge of modifiable risk factors of Coronary Atherosclerotic Heart Disease (CASHD among a sample in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ku Melvin

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence of Coronary Atherosclerotic Heart Disease (CASHD is increasing in India. Several modifiable risk factors contribute directly to this disease burden. Public knowledge of such risk factors among the urban Indian population is largely unknown. This investigation attempts to quantify knowledge of modifiable risk factors of CASHD as sampled among an Indian population at a large metropolitan hospital. Methods A hospital-based, cross sectional study was conducted at All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS, a major tertiary care hospital in New Delhi, India. Participants (n = 217 recruited from patient waiting areas in the emergency room were provided with standardized questionnaires to assess their knowledge of modifiable risk factors of CASHD. The risk factors specifically included smoking, hypertension, elevated cholesterol levels, diabetes mellitus and obesity. Identifying 3 or less risk factors was regarded as a poor knowledge level, whereas identifying 4 or more risk factors was regarded as a good knowledge level. A multiple logistic regression model was used to isolate independent demographic markers predictive of a participant's level of knowledge. Results 41% of the sample surveyed had a good level of knowledge. 68%, 72%, 73% and 57% of the population identified smoking, obesity, hypertension, and high cholesterol correctly, respectively. 30% identified diabetes mellitus as a modifiable risk factor of CASHD. In multiple logistic regression analysis independent demographic predictors of a good knowledge level with a statistically significant (p Conclusion An Indian population in a hospital setting shows a lack of knowledge pertaining to modifiable risk factors of CASHD. By isolating demographic predictors of poor knowledge, such as current smokers and persons who do not exercise regularly, educational interventions can be effectively targeted and implemented as primary and secondary prevention strategies

  8. Cardiovascular risk assessment in Italy: the CUORE Project risk score and risk chart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Giampaoli

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Aim: Risk charts and risk score, based on the global absolute risk, are key tools for CVD risk assessment. When applied to the population from which they derive, they provide the best estimate of CVD risk. That is why the CUORE Project has among its objectives the assessment of the Italian population’s cardiovascular risk, identifying the model for the prediction of coronary and cerebrovascular events in 10 years.

    Methods: Data fromdifferent cohorts enrolled in the North, Centre and South of Italy between the 1980s and the 1990s were used. From the 7,056 men and 12,574 women aged 35-69 years, free of cardiovascular disease at base-line and followed up for a mean time of 10 years for total and cause-specific mortality and non fatal cerebrovascular and coronary events, 894 major cardiovascular events (596 coronary and 298 cerebrovascular were identified and validated. To assess 10-year cardiovascular risk, the risk score and risk chart were developed for men and women separately, considering the first major coronary or cerebrovascular event as the endpoint.

    Results: The risk score is applied tomen andwomen aged 35-69 years and includes age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, smoking habit, diabetes and hypertension treatment using continuous values when possible. The risk chart is applied to persons aged 40-69 years and includes the same risk factors as risk score, except for HDL-cholesterol and hypertension treatment, and uses categorical values for all variables.

    Conclusions: The risk score and risk chart are easy-to-use tools which enable general practitioners and specialists to achieve an objective evaluation of the absolute global cardiovascular risk of middle-aged persons in primary prevention.

  9. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  10. Bullying, Depression, and Suicide Risk in a Pediatric Primary Care Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodish, Tamar; Herres, Joanna; Shearer, Annie; Atte, Tita; Fein, Joel; Diamond, Guy

    2016-05-01

    Suicide is a serious public health concern for US youth. Research has established an association between bullying and suicide risk. However, several questions remain regarding this relationship. The present study examined (a) whether experiences of verbal, physical, and cyber bullying were uniquely associated with general suicide risk; (b) whether each specific form of bullying was related to suicide attempt; and (c) whether depression moderated the relationship between each type of bullying and suicide risk. The sample included medical records of 5,429 youth screened in primary care when providers had mental health concerns. Patients were screened using the Behavioral Health Screen (BHS), which assessed a range of mental health problems and behaviors, including bullying, depression, and suicide. All types of bullying were associated with suicide risk, but verbal bullying was uniquely associated with suicide attempt. Depression significantly moderated the relationship between each type of bullying and suicide risk. The study's limitations include the use of cross-sectional and self-data reports. When medical providers evaluate suicide risk, bullying should be considered as a possible precipitant, especially if the patient is depressed. Verbal bullying may be particularly important in understanding severity of suicide risk.

  11. Assessment of Primitive Reflexes in High-risk Newborns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohn, Min; Ahn, Youngmee; Lee, Sangmi

    2011-12-01

    Assessment of primitive reflexes is one of the earliest, simplest, and most frequently used assessment tools among health care providers for newborns and young infants. However, very few data exist for high-risk infants in this topic. Among the various primitive reflexes, this study was undertaken particularly to describe the sucking, Babinski and Moro reflexes in high-risk newborns and to explore their relationships with clinical variables. This study is a cross-sectional descriptive study. Sixty seven high-risk newborns including full-term infants required intensive care as well as premature infants were recruited in a neonatal intensive care unit using convenient sampling method. The sucking, Babinski and Moro reflexes were assessed and classified by normal, abnormal and absence. To explore their relationships with clinical variables, birth-related variables, brain sonogram results, and behavioral state (the Anderson Behavioral State Scale, ABSS) and mental status (the Infant Coma Scale, ICS) were assessed. The sucking reflex presented a normal response most frequently (63.5%), followed by Babinski reflex (58.7%) and Moro reflex (42.9%). Newborns who presented normal sucking and Babinski reflex responses were more likely to have older gestational age, heavier birth and current weight, higher Apgar scores, shorter length of hospitalization, better respiratory conditions, and better mental status assessed by ICS, but not with Moro reflex. High risk newborns presented more frequent abnormal and absence responses of primitive reflex and the proportions of the responses varied by reflex. Further researches are necessary in exploring diverse aspects of primitive reflexes and revealing their clinical implication in the high-risk newborns that are unique and different to normal healthy newborns. Primitive reflex; High risk infants; Korean; Moro reflex; Sucking reflex; Babinski reflex; The Anderson Behavioral State Scale; Infant Coma Scale.

  12. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments of...

  14. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wei

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG. The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  15. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  16. Risk-Based Assessment of Structural Robustness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana-Mihaela Ioniţă

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing safety of structures is one of the main aims of design. In traditional design it is achieved by designing structural components against specified limit states. However, as showed the Ronan Point collapse in UK in 1968, when a gas explosion in one of flats on the 18-th floor of the residential building caused the failure of an entire section of the building, this approach is not sufficient. The approach does not exclude the risk of local damage to a structure due to accidental events that can occur during service life of the structure. While probability of occurrence of such events for ordinary structures is low, and, therefore, they are not considered explicitly in design, their effect on structural safety becomes significant if the structure is not robust, that is when some local damage can trigger a chain reaction of failures causing collapse of the whole structure or of a major part of it, the so called progressive collapse. The purpose of this paper is to outline the basic premises for the utilization of risk assessment in evaluating the robustness of structures. In the following the robustness assessment is understood as a process of decision making based on risks.

  17. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  18. Information Security Risk Assessment in Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayatollahi, Haleh; Shagerdi, Ghazal

    2017-01-01

    To date, many efforts have been made to classify information security threats, especially in the healthcare area. However, there are still many unknown risks which may threat the security of health information and their resources especially in the hospitals. The aim of this study was to assess the risks threatening information security in the hospitals located in one of the northwest cities of Iran. This study was completed in 2014. The participants were information technology managers who worked in the hospitals (n=27). The research instrument was a questionnaire composed of a number of open and closed questions. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed, and the reliability of the closed questions was measured by using the test-retest method (r =0.78). The results showed that among the information security risks, fire found to be a high probability/high impact risk factor. Human and physical/environmental threats were among the low probability risk factors. Regarding the information security safeguards used in the hospitals, the results showed that the use of the technical safeguards was the most frequent one (n =22, 91.7%) compared to the administrative (n =21, 87.5%) and the physical safeguards (n =16, 66.7%). The high probability risk factors require quick corrective actions to be taken. Therefore, the underlying causes of such threats should be identified and controlled before experiencing adverse effects. It is also important to note that information security in health care systems needs to be considered at a macro level with respect to the national interests and policies.

  19. Risk assessment methodology for the forniture industrial sector

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigues, Matilde A.

    2014-01-01

    Companies need to constantly make decisions about risk. They need to decide if a certain risk level is low enough or if some measures for its reduction are still needed. In this regard, risk assessment appears as a basis for the decision-making about risks. However, risk acceptance is an important issue related to the risk assessment process, which may put into question its appropriateness. Despite the importance of risk acceptance, this subject is insufficiently discussed in the literature r...

  20. Excipient Usage Technical Risk Assessment for Generic Solid Dose Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Babu Pazhayattil

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an assessment methodology for solid dose generic small molecule drug products. It addresses the ‘usage of the excipient’ portion of the trinomial by utilizing the systematic approach of Risk Identification, Risk Analysis and Risk Evaluation as per ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management outlined for developing risk control strategies. The assessment and maintenance of excipient risk profile is essential to minimize any potential risk associated to excipients impacting patients.

  1. Towards the production of reliable quantitative microbiological data for risk assessment: Direct quantification of Campylobacter in naturally infected chicken fecal samples using selective culture and real-time PCR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia Clavero, Ana Belén; Vigre, Håkan; Josefsen, Mathilde Hasseldam

    2015-01-01

    and for the evaluation of control strategies implemented in poultry production. The aim of this study was to compare estimates of the numbers of Campylobacter spp. in naturally infected chicken fecal samples obtained using direct quantification by selective culture and by real-time PCR. Absolute quantification...... of Campylobacter by real-time PCR was performed using standard curves designed for two different DNA extraction methods: Easy-DNA™ Kit from Invitrogen (Easy-DNA) and NucliSENS® MiniMAG® from bioMérieux (MiniMAG). Results indicated that the estimation of the numbers of Campylobacter present in chicken fecal samples...... was partly dependent on the methodologies used. In general, the numbers of Campylobacter obtained by real-time PCR when extracting DNA using the MiniMAG method were in most cases higher than the numbers of Campylobacter obtained by selective culture and by real-time PCR when using the Easy-DNA method...

  2. Avian influenza virus risk assessment in falconry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lüschow Dörte

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a continuing threat of human infections with avian influenza viruses (AIV. In this regard falconers might be a potential risk group because they have close contact to their hunting birds (raptors such as falcons and hawks as well as their avian prey such as gulls and ducks. Both (hunting birds and prey birds seem to be highly susceptible to some AIV strains, especially H5N1. We therefore conducted a field study to investigate AIV infections in falconers, their falconry birds as well as prey birds. Findings During 2 hunting seasons (2006/2007 and 2007/2008 falconers took tracheal and cloacal swabs from 1080 prey birds that were captured by their falconry birds (n = 54 in Germany. AIV-RNA of subtypes H6, H9, or H13 was detected in swabs of 4.1% of gulls (n = 74 and 3.8% of ducks (n = 53 using RT-PCR. The remaining 953 sampled prey birds and all falconry birds were negative. Blood samples of the falconry birds tested negative for AIV specific antibodies. Serum samples from all 43 falconers reacted positive in influenza A virus-specific ELISA, but remained negative using microneutralisation test against subtypes H5 and H7 and haemagglutination inhibition test against subtypes H6, H9 and H13. Conclusion Although we were able to detect AIV-RNA in samples from prey birds, the corresponding falconry birds and falconers did not become infected. Currently falconers do not seem to carry a high risk for getting infected with AIV through handling their falconry birds and their prey.

  3. Risk Assessment in Advanced Engineering Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holický

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional methods for designing of civil engineering structures and other engineering systems are frequently based on the concept of target probability of failure. However, this fundamental quantity is usually specified on the basis of comparative studies and past experience only. Moreover, probabilistic design methods suffer from several deficiencies, including lack of consideration for accidental and other hazard situations and their consequences. Both of these extreme conditions are more and more frequently becoming causes of serious failures and other adverse events. Available experience clearly indicates that probabilistic design procedures may be efficiently supplemented by a risk analysis and assessment, which can take into account various consequences of unfavourable events. It is therefore anticipated that in addition to traditional probabilistic concepts the methods of advanced engineering design will also commonly include criteria for acceptable risks.

  4. Overestimation of the Legionella spp. load in environmental samples by quantitative real-time PCR: pretreatment with propidium monoazide as a tool for the assessment of an association between Legionella concentration and sanitary risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditommaso, Savina; Ricciardi, Elisa; Giacomuzzi, Monica; Arauco Rivera, Susan R; Ceccarelli, Adriano; Zotti, Carla M

    2014-12-01

    Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) offers rapid, sensitive, and specific detection of Legionella in environmental water samples. In this study, qPCR and qPCR combined with propidium monoazide (PMA-qPCR) were both applied to hot-water system samples and compared to traditional culture techniques. In addition, we evaluated the ability of PMA-qPCR to monitor the efficacy of different disinfection strategies. Comparison between the quantification obtained by culture and by qPCR or PMA-qPCR on environmental water samples confirms that the concentration of Legionella estimated by GU/L is generally higher than that estimated in CFU/L. Our results on 57 hot-water-system samples collected from 3 different sites show that: i) qPCR results were on average 178-fold higher than the culture results (Δ log10=2.25), ii) PMA-qPCR results were on average 27-fold higher than the culture results (Δ log10=1.43), iii) propidium monoazide-induced signal reduction in qPCR were nearly 10-fold (Δ log10=0.95), and that iv) different degrees of correlations between the 3 methods might be explained by different matrix properties, but also by different disinfection methods affecting cultivability of Legionella. In our study, we calculated the logarithmic differences between the results obtained by PMA-qPCR and those obtained by culture, and we suggested an algorithm for the interpretation of PMA-qPCR results for the routine monitoring of healthcare water systems using a commercial qPCR system (iQ-check real-time PCR kit; Bio-Rad, Marnes-la-Coquette, France). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Screening Level Risk Assessment for the New Waste Calcining Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. L. Abbott; K. N. Keck; R. E. Schindler; R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; M. B. Heiser

    1999-05-01

    This screening level risk assessment evaluates potential adverse human health and ecological impacts resulting from continued operations of the calciner at the New Waste Calcining Facility (NWCF) at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC), Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). The assessment was conducted in accordance with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, Guidance for Performing Screening Level Risk Analyses at Combustion Facilities Burning Hazardous Waste. This screening guidance is intended to give a conservative estimate of the potential risks to determine whether a more refined assessment is warranted. The NWCF uses a fluidized-bed combustor to solidify (calcine) liquid radioactive mixed waste from the INTEC Tank Farm facility. Calciner off volatilized metal species, trace organic compounds, and low-levels of radionuclides. Conservative stack emission rates were calculated based on maximum waste solution feed samples, conservative assumptions for off gas partitioning of metals and organics, stack gas sampling for mercury, and conservative measurements of contaminant removal (decontamination factors) in the off gas treatment system. Stack emissions were modeled using the ISC3 air dispersion model to predict maximum particulate and vapor air concentrations and ground deposition rates. Results demonstrate that NWCF emissions calculated from best-available process knowledge would result in maximum onsite and offsite health and ecological impacts that are less then EPA-established criteria for operation of a combustion facility.

  6. Risk Assessment Report, Davis Global Communications Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-02-23

    methiocarb . All of the contaminants detected in the production well were evaluated as COPCs in the risk assessment, with the exception of methiocarb ... Methiocarb (Mesurol, produced by Mobay Contaminant Corp.) is a moderately toxic carbamate pesticide used principally as a bird repellant in fruit and...6.7 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 2 2.95 3.71 3 1,1-Dichloroethene 27 0.2 3.0 Ethylene dibromide 2 1.407 2.3 3 Freon 113 45 1.3 14.1 Methiocarb 1 -- 50.0 3 Methyl

  7. BfR assesses research results of samples of mineral water with hormone-like effects

    OpenAIRE

    German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment

    2009-01-01

    Media reports on research results by scientists at Frankfurt University concerning samples of mineral water with hormone-like effects have disconcerted consumers. In the study, such effects were determined in 12 out of 20 mineral waters tested. The scientists assume that this oestrogen-like effect originates from substances in plastic bottles that contain the mineral water. The position of the Federal Institute of Risk Assessment (BfR) is that mineral water essentially should have no hormone-...

  8. Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

  9. Scientific risk assessment and the regulation of human cancer risks: background and new directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnard, R.C.

    1987-09-01

    I consider the importance of scientific risk assessment as optimal basis for socially sound risk management decisions. The health professional has both risk assessment and risk management responsibilities; the functions are conceptually separate and governed by separate criteria: scientific for risk assessment and social for risk management. The history of the development of regulating risk assessment methodology with particular reference to potential carcinogens is discussed. The scientific basis for possible improvements in risk assessment methodology for potential carcinogens is identified and the significance of the potential improvements is considered with special reference to the health professional.

  10. Comparison of soil sampling and analytical methods for asbestos at the Sumas Mountain Asbestos Site—Working towards a toolbox for better assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Established soil sampling methods for asbestos are inadequate to support risk assessment and risk-based decision making at Superfund sites due to difficulties in detecting asbestos at low concentrations and difficulty in extrapolating soil concentrations to air concentrations. En...

  11. Adverse childhood experiences, gender, and HIV risk behaviors: Results from a population-based sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Fang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent HIV research suggested assessing adverse childhood experiences (ACEs as contributing factors of HIV risk behaviors. However, studies often focused on a single type of adverse experience and very few utilized population-based data. This population study examined the associations between ACE (individual and cumulative ACE score and HIV risk behaviors. We analyzed the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS from 5 states. The sample consisted of 39,434 adults. Eight types of ACEs that included different types of child abuse and household dysfunctions before the age of 18 were measured. A cumulative score of ACEs was also computed. Logistic regression estimated of the association between ACEs and HIV risk behaviors using odds ratio (OR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs for males and females separately. We found that ACEs were positively associated with HIV risk behaviors overall, but the associations differed between males and females in a few instances. While the cumulative ACE score was associated with HIV risk behaviors in a stepwise manner, the pattern varied by gender. For males, the odds of HIV risk increased at a significant level as long as they experienced one ACE, whereas for females, the odds did not increase until they experienced three or more ACEs. Future research should further investigate the gender-specific associations between ACEs and HIV risk behaviors. As childhood adversities are prevalent among general population, and such experiences are associated with increased risk behaviors for HIV transmission, service providers can benefit from the principles of trauma-informed practice.

  12. [Bus drivers' biomechanical risk assessment in two different contexts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baracco, A; Coggiola, M; Perrelli, F; Banchio, M; Martignone, S; Gullino, A; Romano, C

    2012-01-01

    The application of standardize methods for the biomechanical risk assessment in non-industrial cycled activity is not always possible. A typical case is the public transport sector, where workers complain of suffering for shoulder more than elbow and wrist pains. The Authors present the results of two studies involving two public transport companies and the risk of biomechanical overload of upper limbs for bus and tram drivers. The analysis has been made using three different approaches: focus groups; static analysis by using anthropometric manikins; work sampling technique by monitoring worker's activity and posture at each minute, for two hours and for each binomial vehicle-route, considering P5F e P95M drivers and assessing the perceived efforts thorough the Borg's CR10 Scale. The conclusive results show that the ergonomic analysis managed by multiple non-standardized techniques may reach consistent and repeatable results according to the epidemiological evidences.

  13. Quality of fracture risk assessment in post-fracture care in Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allin, S; Munce, S; Schott, A-M; Hawker, G; Murphy, K; Jaglal, S B

    2013-03-01

    As fracture risk assessment is a basis for treatment decisions, accurate risk assessments on bone mineral density (BMD) reports are important. Over 50 % of sampled BMD reports for Ontarians with fracture histories underestimated fracture risk by a single category. Risk assessments in Ontario may not accurately inform treatment recommendations. The shifting emphasis on fracture risk assessment as a basis for treatment recommendations highlights the importance of ensuring that accurate fracture risk assessments are present on reading specialists' BMD reports. This study seeks to determine the accuracy of fracture risk assessments on a sample of BMD reports from 2008 for individuals with a history of fracture and produced by a broad cross section of Ontario's imaging laboratories. Forty-eight BMD reports for individuals with documented history of fragility fracture were collected as part of a cluster randomized trial. To compute fracture risk, risk factors, and BMD T-scores from reports were abstracted using a standardized template and compared to the assessments on the reports. Cohen's kappa was used to score agreement between the research team and the reading specialists. The weighted kappa was 0.21, indicating agreement to be at the margin of "poor to fair." More than 50 % of the time, reported fracture risks did not reflect fracture history and were therefore underestimated by a single category. Over 30 % of the reports containing a "low" fracture risk assessment were assessed as "moderate" fracture risk by the research team, given fracture history. Over 20 % of the reports with a "moderate" fracture risk were assessed as "high" by the research team, given fracture history. This study highlights the high prevalence of fracture risk assessments that are underestimated. This has implications in terms of fracture risk categorization that can negatively affect subsequent follow-up care and treatment recommendations.

  14. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  15. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  16. A new hypervolume approach for assessing environmental risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Lu, Bo; Fournier, Ronald; Cook, Gericke; Turgeon, Jean J

    2017-05-15

    Assessing risks of uncertain but potentially damaging events, such as environmental disturbances, disease outbreaks and pest invasions, is a key analytical step that informs subsequent decisions about how to respond to these events. We present a continuous risk measure that can be used to assess and prioritize environmental risks from uncertain data in a geographical domain. The metric is influenced by both the expected magnitude of risk and its uncertainty. We demonstrate the approach by assessing risks of human-mediated spread of Asian longhorned beetle (ALB, Anoplophora glabripennis) in Greater Toronto (Ontario, Canada). Information about the human-mediated spread of ALB through this urban environment to individual geographical locations is uncertain, so each location was characterized by a set of probabilistic rates of spread, derived in this case using a network model. We represented the sets of spread rates for the locations by their cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and then, using the first-order stochastic dominance rule, found ordered non-dominant subsets of these CDFs, which we then used to define different classes of risk across the geographical domain, from high to low. Because each non-dominant subset was estimated with respect to all elements of the distribution, the uncertainty in the underlying data was factored into the delineation of the risk classes; essentially, fewer non-dominant subsets can be defined in portions of the full set where information is sparse. We then depicted each non-dominant subset as a point cloud, where points represented the CDF values of each subset element at specific sampling intervals. For each subset, we then defined a hypervolume bounded by the outermost convex frontier of that point cloud. This resulted in a collection of hypervolumes for every non-dominant subset that together serve as a continuous measure of risk, which may be more practically useful than averaging metrics or ordinal rank measures. Overall

  17. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  18. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  19. Women with chromosomally normal male fetuses are at increased risk of being referred for invasive testing following first-trimester risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miltoft, Caroline Borregaard; Ekelund, Charlotte Kvist; Rode, Line

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated the gender distribution in karyotype results from chorionic villus samples and amniocenteses performed due to an increased risk for Down syndrome based on first-trimester combined risk assessment.......This study investigated the gender distribution in karyotype results from chorionic villus samples and amniocenteses performed due to an increased risk for Down syndrome based on first-trimester combined risk assessment....

  20. Radiological endpoints relevant to ecological risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, F. [Univ. of California, Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Livermore, CA (United States)

    1997-07-01

    Because of the potential risk from radiation due to the releases of radionuclides from anthropogenic activities, considerable research was performed to determine for humans the levels of dose received, their responses to the doses and mechanisms of action of radioactivity on living matter. More recently, there is an increased interest in the effects of radioactivity on non-human species. There are differences in approach between risk assessment for humans and ecosystems. For protection of humans, the focus is the individual and the endpoint of primary concern is cancer induction. For protection of ecosystems, the focus is on population stability and the endpoint of concern is reproductive success for organisms important ecologically and economically. For these organisms, information is needed on their responses to irradiation and the potential impact of the doses absorbed on their reproductive success. Considerable information is available on the effects of radiation on organisms from different phyla and types of ecosystems. Databases useful for assessing risk from exposures of populations to radioactivity are the effects of irradiation on mortality, fertility and sterility, the latter two of which are important components of reproductive success. Data on radiation effects on mortality are available both from acute and chronic irradiation. In relation to radiation effects, reproductive success for a given population is related to a number of characteristics of the species, including inherent radiosensitivity of reproductive tissues and early life stages, processes occurring during gametogenesis, reproductive strategy and exposure history. The available data on acute and chronic radiation doses is reviewed for invertebrates, fishes and mammals. The information reviewed indicates that wide ranges in responses with species can be expected. Parameters that most likely contribute to inherent radiosensitivity are discussed. (author)

  1. HIV risk behavior of psychiatric patients with mental illness: a sample of Brazilian patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães, Mark Drew Crosland; McKinnon, Karen; Campos, Lorenza Nogueira; Melo, Ana Paula Souto; Wainberg, Milton

    2010-12-01

    The prevalence of HIV among psychiatric patients is higher than general population rates worldwide. Many risk behaviors have been identified in studies from both developing and developed countries, though sampling limitations restrict the generalizability of their results. The objective of this study was to report findings from the first national sample of psychiatric patients about lifetime practice of unsafe sex and associated factors. A national multicenter sample of adults with mental illness was randomly selected from 26 public mental health institutions throughout Brazil. Sociodemographic, sexual behavior and clinical data were obtained from person-to-person interviews and blood was collected for serology testing. Logistic regression was used for analysis. The overall prevalence of lifetime unprotected sex was 80.3%. Married, older, female patients, those with multiple partners and living with children or partners only and those with less severe psychiatric diagnosis more often practised unsafe sex. Risk behavior assessment is a critical tool for clinicians to be able to determine needed HIV-related services for their clients and ensure appropriate follow-through with care and prevention. Interventions that address situational risks in psychiatric patients' lives-institutional and individual- and increase their ability to make informed decisions about their sexual health are urgently needed.

  2. Regional risk assessment as a part of the long-term receiving water study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Thomas, Jill F

    2009-04-01

    A regional-scale watershed assessment using the relative risk model has now been performed on each of the watersheds that are part of the Long-Term Receiving Waters Study (LTRWS) to generate patterns of risk at each study site. The watersheds assessed included the lower McKenzie and mid-Willamette rivers in Oregon, USA; Codorus Creek in Pennsylvania, USA; and the Leaf River in Mississippi, USA. In each case, the goal was to put the LTRWS into a watershed and regional context, including multiple sources, stressors, habitats, and assessment endpoints. In each instance, the relative risk model provided measures of relative risk and testable hypotheses about patterns within the watersheds. There were similarities among the 3 risk studies. First, land use within the watershed was the most important driver of risk in each instance, even compared with point sources. Second, the list of endpoints was similar for each risk assessment. Water quality was held as important, along with populations critical to recreation or commercial use. At each site, data from the LTRWS and other sources could be used to support the risk patterns predicted from the risk assessment process. However, the sampling design of the LTRWS prevented the confirmation of specific cause-effect relationships. A fundamental conclusion is that risk assessment, using an adaptation of the relative risk model, should be performed as an integral part of any watershed assessment and management effort. These initial watershed risk assessments have led to similar assessments across the world.

  3. Assessing Food Safety Risk in Global Supply Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Shirani, Mohsen

    2016-01-01

    Despite many attempts in the food safety risk assessment, there are a few studies and methods to cover the entire food supply chain. This study introduce a new model to perform the food risk assessment considering human factor along the entire food supply chain. The multi-discipline methodology of risk assessment tool, in combination of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) has been applied in order to assess high safety risk point along the entire supply chain of food products. The method has be...

  4. Preventive risk assessment in forensic child and youth care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assink, M.

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessment is central to the work of forensic mental health professionals, since it serves as a guide for prevention and intervention strategies. For effective risk assessment, knowledge on risk factors and their effects as well as the availability of valid and reliable instruments for risk

  5. The relationships between gender, psychopathic traits and self-reported delinquency: a comparison between a general population sample and a high-risk sample for juvenile delinquency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leenarts, L E W; Dölitzsch, C; Pérez, T; Schmeck, K; Fegert, J M; Schmid, M

    2017-01-01

    Studies have shown that youths with high psychopathic traits have an earlier onset of delinquent behavior, have higher levels of delinquent behavior, and show higher rates of recidivism than youths with low psychopathic traits. Furthermore, psychopathic traits have received much attention as a robust indicator for delinquent and aggressive behavior in both boys and girls. However, there is a notable lack of research on gender differences in the relationship between psychopathic traits and delinquent behavior. In addition, most of the studies on psychopathic traits and delinquent behavior were conducted in high-risk samples. Therefore, the first objective of the current study was to investigate the relationship between psychopathic traits and specific forms of self-reported delinquency in a high-risk sample for juvenile delinquency as well as in a general population sample. The second objective was to examine the influence of gender on this relationship. Finally, we investigated whether the moderating effect of gender was comparable in the high-risk sample for juvenile delinquency and the general population sample. Participants were 1220 adolescents of the German-speaking part of Switzerland (N = 351 high-risk sample, N = 869 general population sample) who were between 13 and 21 years of age. The Youth Psychopathic traits Inventory (YPI) was used to assess psychopathic traits. To assess the lifetime prevalence of the adolescents' delinquent behavior, 15 items derived from a self-report delinquency instrument were used. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between gender, psychopathic traits and self-reported delinquency across both samples. Our results demonstrated that psychopathic traits are related to non-violent and violent offenses. We found no moderating effect of gender and therefore we could not detect differences in the moderating effect of gender between the samples. However, there was a moderating effect of sample for

  6. Probabilistic disaggregation of a spatial portfolio of exposure for natural hazard risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2017-01-01

    of a portfolio of buildings in two communes in Switzerland and the results are compared to sample observations. The relevance of probabilistic disaggregation uncertainty in natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated with the example of a simple flood risk assessment.......In natural hazard risk assessment situations are encountered where information on the portfolio of exposure is only available in a spatially aggregated form, hindering a precise risk assessment. Recourse might be found in the spatial disaggregation of the portfolio of exposure to the resolution...

  7. Risk factors for developing endometrial cancer after benign endometrial sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Michelle L; Weaver, Amy L; Kumar, Sanjeev; Uccella, Stefano; Famuyide, Abimbola O; Cliby, William A; Dowdy, Sean C; Gostout, Bobbie S; Mariani, Andrea

    2012-11-01

    To identify risk factors for endometrial cancer after benign results of endometrial biopsy or dilation and curettage (D&C). Nested case-control study from Rochester Epidemiology Project data. Among 370 Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents who received an endometrial cancer diagnosis between 1970 and 2008, we identified 90 patients (24.5%) who had previous benign endometrial biopsy or D&C results (no atypical hyperplasia). We compared them with 172 matched control group participants who had benign endometrial biopsy or D&C results without subsequent endometrial cancer. Using a multivariable conditional logistic regression model, we found that oral contraceptive pill (OCP) use was protective (odds ratio [OR] 0.18, 95% CI [CI] 0.08-0.45; Pmorbid obesity (OR 3.40, 95% CI 1.18-9.78; Prisk factor, presence of one and two or more risk factors increased the risk of endometrial cancer by 8.12 (95% CI 3.08-21.44) and 17.87 (95% CI 5.57-57.39) times, respectively. Assuming a 2.6% lifetime risk of endometrial cancer, ORs of 8.12 and 17.87 for one and two or more of the four aforementioned risk factors confer a lifetime risk of approximately 18% and 32%, respectively. One fourth of patients with endometrial cancer had previous benign endometrial biopsy or D&C results. Personal history of colorectal cancer, presence of endometrial polyps, and morbid obesity are the strongest risk factors for having endometrial cancer after a benign endometrial biopsy or D&C result, and OCP use is the strongest protective factor. II.

  8. 75 FR 70009 - Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-16

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance... guidance concerning Health Risk Assessment (HRAs). Section 4103 of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (Pub. L. 111-148) requires that a health risk assessment be included in the annual wellness visit benefit...

  9. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  10. 78 FR 23901 - Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-23

    ... Food Safety and Inspection Service Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail... risk assessment (QRA), ``Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens... and on the FSIS Web site at http://www.fsis.usda.gov/PDF/Listeria-Transcript_062309.pdf ). II. Purpose...

  11. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

  12. Clinical Perspective Youth violence risk assessment: gaps in local ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There is a lack of research on violence risk assessment in South Africa, particularly on the assessment of risk for violence in children and adolescents. ... to assess youth violence risk exist, many primarily focus on identifying psychopathic tendencies in young people, which has stimulated much debate amongst scholars.

  13. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: a comparison of commonly used risk scoring programs

    OpenAIRE

    Ulusoy, Şükrü

    2013-01-01

    Several calculation modalities are used today for cardiovascular risk assessment. Cardiovascular risk assessment should be performed in all hypertensive patients. Risk assessment methods being based on the population in which the patient lives and the inclusion of factors such as ethnicity variations, socioeconomic status, and medication use will contribute to improvements in risk assessments. The results should be shared with the patient, and modifiable risk factors must be effectively treated.

  14. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  15. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  16. Disaster risk assessment at Roburnia Plantation, Mpumalanga, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudzani A. Makhado

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study reports about disaster risk assessment undertaken at Roburnia Plantation, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were followed to collect data. A total of eight experienced foresters and fire fighters were purposively sampled for interview at Roburnia Plantation. A questionnaire survey was also used to collect the data. Risk levels were quantified using the risks equations of Wisner et al. (2004 and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR 2002. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Analysis of variance (ANOVA, single factor was also applied. This study found that Roburnia Plantation is highly exposed to fire risks. The mean (± s.d. output from the Wisner risk equation shows that fire is the highest risk at 7.7 ± 0.3, followed by harsh weather conditions at 5.6 ± 0.4 and least by tree diseases, pests and pathogens at 2.3 ± 0.2. Similarly, the mean (± s.d. output from the UNISDR risk equation also shows that fire is the highest risk at 2.9 ± 0.2, followed by harsh weather conditions at 2.2 ± 0.3 and least by tree diseases, pests and pathogens at 1.3 ± 0.2. There was no significant deference in the risk analysis outputs (p = 0.13. This study also found that the number of fire incidents were low during summer, but increased during winter and spring. This variation is mainly due to a converse relationship with rainfall, because the availability of rain moistens the area as well as the fuel. When the area and fuel is moist, fire incidents are reduced, but they increase with a decrease in fuel moisture.

  17. Recollection Bias and Its Underpinnings: Lessons from Terrorism Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viscusi, W Kip; Zeckhauser, Richard J

    2017-05-01

    Recollection bias is the phenomenon whereby people who observe a highly unexpected event hold current risk beliefs about a similar event that are no higher than their recollection of their prior beliefs. This article replicates and extends the authors' previous study of recollection bias in relation to individuals' perceptions of the risks of terrorism attacks. Over 60% of respondents in a national U.S. sample of over 900 adults believe that the current risk of a future terrorist attack by either an airplane or in a public setting is no higher than they recall having believed, respectively, before the 9/11 attack and before the Boston Marathon bombing. By contrast, a rational Bayesian model would update to a higher currently assessed risk of these previously uncontemplated events. Recollection bias is a persistent trait: individuals who exhibited this bias for the 9/11 attack exhibited it for the Boston Marathon bombing. Only one-fifth of respondents are free of any type of recollection bias. Recollection bias is negatively correlated with absolute levels of risk belief. Recollection bias in relation to highly unexpected terrorist events-the belief that perceived risks did not increase after the surprise occurrence-dampens support for a variety of anti-terrorism measures, controlling for the level of risk beliefs and demographic factors. Persistent recollection bias for both 9/11 and the Boston Marathon bombing is especially influential in diminishing support for protective policy measures, such as surveillance cameras in public places. Given that public attitudes influence policy, educating the public about risk is critical. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Direct analytical sample quality assessment for biomarker investigation: qualifying cerebrospinal fluid samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greco, Viviana; Pieragostino, Damiana; Piras, Cristian; Aebersold, Ruedi; Wiltfang, Jens; Caltagirone, Carlo; Bernardini, Sergio; Urbani, Andrea

    2014-09-01

    Measurement of biochemical markers represents an important aid to clinicians in the early diagnosis and prognosis of neurological diseases. Many factors can contribute to increase the chances that a biomarker study becomes successful. In a cerebrospinal fluid analysis (CSF), more than 84% of laboratory errors can be attributed to several preanalytical variables that include CSF collection, storage, and freeze thawing cycles. In this concept paper, we focus on some critical issues arising from basic proteomics investigation in order to highlight some key elements of CSF quality control. Furthermore, we propose a direct assessment of sample quality (DASQ) by applying a fast MALDI-TOF-MS methodology to evaluate molecular features of sample degradation and oxidation. We propose DASQ as a fast and simple initial step to be included in large-scale projects for neurological biomarker studies. In fact, such a procedure will improved the development of standardized protocols in order to have well-characterized CSF biobanks. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. Assessing the Invasion Risk of Eucalyptus in the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doria R. Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA. This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38 Eucalyptus taxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

  20. Sample size requirements for training high-dimensional risk predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbin, Kevin K; Song, Xiao

    2013-09-01

    A common objective of biomarker studies is to develop a predictor of patient survival outcome. Determining the number of samples required to train a predictor from survival data is important for designing such studies. Existing sample size methods for training studies use parametric models for the high-dimensional data and cannot handle a right-censored dependent variable. We present a new training sample size method that is non-parametric with respect to the high-dimensional vectors, and is developed for a right-censored response. The method can be applied to any prediction algorithm that satisfies a set of conditions. The sample size is chosen so that the expected performance of the predictor is within a user-defined tolerance of optimal. The central method is based on a pilot dataset. To quantify uncertainty, a method to construct a confidence interval for the tolerance is developed. Adequacy of the size of the pilot dataset is discussed. An alternative model-based version of our method for estimating the tolerance when no adequate pilot dataset is available is presented. The model-based method requires a covariance matrix be specified, but we show that the identity covariance matrix provides adequate sample size when the user specifies three key quantities. Application of the sample size method to two microarray datasets is discussed.

  1. Sampling for Soil Carbon Stock Assessment in Rocky Agricultural Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beem-Miller, Jeffrey P.; Kong, Angela Y. Y.; Ogle, Stephen; Wolfe, David

    2016-01-01

    Coring methods commonly employed in soil organic C (SOC) stock assessment may not accurately capture soil rock fragment (RF) content or soil bulk density (rho (sub b)) in rocky agricultural soils, potentially biasing SOC stock estimates. Quantitative pits are considered less biased than coring methods but are invasive and often cost-prohibitive. We compared fixed-depth and mass-based estimates of SOC stocks (0.3-meters depth) for hammer, hydraulic push, and rotary coring methods relative to quantitative pits at four agricultural sites ranging in RF content from less than 0.01 to 0.24 cubic meters per cubic meter. Sampling costs were also compared. Coring methods significantly underestimated RF content at all rocky sites, but significant differences (p is less than 0.05) in SOC stocks between pits and corers were only found with the hammer method using the fixed-depth approach at the less than 0.01 cubic meters per cubic meter RF site (pit, 5.80 kilograms C per square meter; hammer, 4.74 kilograms C per square meter) and at the 0.14 cubic meters per cubic meter RF site (pit, 8.81 kilograms C per square meter; hammer, 6.71 kilograms C per square meter). The hammer corer also underestimated rho (sub b) at all sites as did the hydraulic push corer at the 0.21 cubic meters per cubic meter RF site. No significant differences in mass-based SOC stock estimates were observed between pits and corers. Our results indicate that (i) calculating SOC stocks on a mass basis can overcome biases in RF and rho (sub b) estimates introduced by sampling equipment and (ii) a quantitative pit is the optimal sampling method for establishing reference soil masses, followed by rotary and then hydraulic push corers.

  2. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  3. Risk assessment of tuberculosis in immunocompromised patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sester, Martina; van Leth, Frank; Bruchfeld, Judith

    2014-01-01

    RATIONALE: In the absence of active tuberculosis, a positive tuberculin skin test (TST) or interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) result defines latent infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, although test results may vary depending on immunodeficiency. OBJECTIVES: This study compared the performance...... of TST and IGRAs in five different groups of immunocompromised patients, and evaluated their ability to identify those at risk for development of tuberculosis. METHODS: Immunocompromised patients with HIV infection, chronic renal failure, rheumatoid arthritis, solid-organ or stem-cell transplantation......, and healthy control subjects were evaluated head-to-head by the TST, QuantiFERON-TB-Gold in-tube test (ELISA), and T-SPOT.TB test (enzyme-linked immunospot) at 17 centers in 11 European countries. Development of tuberculosis was assessed during follow-up. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Frequencies of positive...

  4. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... skin associated with various skin disorders. BADGE and derivatives had a tendency to permeate pig skin membranes in vitro with higher fluxes in the tape stripped membranes compared to the non-treated membranes. Data from the in vitro skin permeation study and from the literature were used as input...

  5. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  6. Miniature Biosensor with Health Risk Assessment Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Andrea; Downs, Meghan; Kalogera, Kent; Buxton, Roxanne; Cooper, Tommy; Cooper, Alan; Cooper, Ross

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) monitoring is a medical requirement during exercise on the International Space Station (ISS), fitness tests, and extravehicular activity (EVA); however, NASA does not currently have the technology to consistently and accurately monitor HR and other physiological data during these activities. Performance of currently available HR monitor technologies is dependent on uninterrupted contact with the torso and are prone to data drop-out and motion artifact. Here, we seek an alternative to the chest strap and electrode based sensors currently in use on ISS today. This project aims to develop a high performance, robust earbud based biosensor with focused efforts on improved HR data quality during exercise or EVA. A health risk assessment algorithm will further advance the goals of autonomous crew health care for exploration missions.

  7. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  8. Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, Donovan L.; Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Go, Susie

    2014-01-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

  9. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  10. Environmental Assessment of Natural Radioactivity in Soil Samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryuta Hazama

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The environmental impacts and hazards due to the unstoppable hot mud flow by the East Java ‘LUSI’ Mud Volcano are increasing since its unexpected eruption on May 29, 2006. Analysis should be undertaken, not only to examine its impact on human health and the environment, but also to explore the potential benefits of the mud flow. One may be able to tap the mud flow as a material source for brick and cement. Recently there has been great concern about the health risks associated with exposure to natural radioactivity present in soil and building materials all over the world. In this context, measurements for natural radioactive isotopes such as 238U and 232Th series, and 40K in mud samples were carried out using the HPGe (High-Purity Germanium detector to determine the re-usability of the mud. 226Ra, 232Th and 40K activity concentrations were found to be 13±1, 15±1 and 111±3 Bq/kg (1 Bq = 1 sec-1, respectively, and the corresponding activity index was found to be 0.16±0.02. These values were compared with previous data and our measured accuracy was improved by a factor of nine at the maximum. Radium equivalent activity, external and internal hazard indices, and annual effective dose equivalent were also evaluated and all were found to be within acceptable limits.

  11. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxiao Ji

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1 formulation of risk assessment hierarchy; (2 representation of both qualitative and quantitative information; (3 elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities; (4 aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5 quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.

  12. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...

  13. Caries risk assessment in an educational environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doméjean-Orliaguet, Sophie; Gansky, Stuart A; Featherstone, John D

    2006-12-01

    This study was designed to assess, retrospectively using dental records, the impact on the management of dental caries of new caries risk assessment (CRA) forms and procedures introduced into a predoctoral dental school clinic. Of 3,659 patients with a new patient visit (NPV) and baseline exam (BE) in the two-year period of July 2003 through June 2005, 69 percent (n= 2,516) had a baseline CRA. "Visible cavitation or caries into dentin by radiograph" was significantly correlated to most items included in the CRA form, for example, "frequent between meal snack of sugars/cooked starch" (pinterproximal enamel lesions or radiolucencies" (OR=11.8), and "white spots or occlusal discoloration" (OR=1.50) were positively related. CRA use at follow-up, the use of bacterial tests, antibacterial therapy, and specific patient recommendations were all very low. While the content and usefulness of the CRA procedures were validated, the study highlighted the difficulties of implementing such programs in educational establishments even with an extensive student didactic program and faculty training.

  14. THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  15. Problematic Internet use and associated risks in a college sample

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Derbyshire, Katherine L; Lust, Katherine A; Schreiber, Liana R N

    2013-01-01

    understanding of this relationship. METHOD: A sample (n=2108) of college students (56.9% female) was examined using a self-report Internet survey concerning demographic characteristics, Internet use, health behaviors, psychosocial functioning, and psychiatric comorbidities. The IAT was used to determine levels...

  16. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  17. A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (II) Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the procedures and results of intensity- and time-based seismic risk assessments of a sample nuclear power plant (NPP) to demonstrate the risk-assessment methodology proposed in its companion paper. The intensity-based assessments include three sets of sensitivity studies to identify the impact of the following factors on the seismic vulnerability of the sample NPP, namely: (1) the description of fragility curves for primary and secondary components of NPPs, (2) the number of simulations of NPP response required for risk assessment, and (3) the correlation in responses between NPP components. The time-based assessment is performed as a series of intensity-based assessments. The studies illustrate the utility of the response-based fragility curves and the inclusion of the correlation in the responses of NPP components directly in the risk computation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Toxicological risk assessment of complex mixtures through the Wtox model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Gerson Matias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models are important tools for environmental management and risk assessment. Predictions about the toxicity of chemical mixtures must be enhanced due to the complexity of eects that can be caused to the living species. In this work, the environmental risk was accessed addressing the need to study the relationship between the organism and xenobiotics. Therefore, ve toxicological endpoints were applied through the WTox Model, and with this methodology we obtained the risk classication of potentially toxic substances. Acute and chronic toxicity, citotoxicity and genotoxicity were observed in the organisms Daphnia magna, Vibrio scheri and Oreochromis niloticus. A case study was conducted with solid wastes from textile, metal-mechanic and pulp and paper industries. The results have shown that several industrial wastes induced mortality, reproductive eects, micronucleus formation and increases in the rate of lipid peroxidation and DNA methylation of the organisms tested. These results, analyzed together through the WTox Model, allowed the classication of the environmental risk of industrial wastes. The evaluation showed that the toxicological environmental risk of the samples analyzed can be classied as signicant or critical.

  19. Risk, surprises and black swans fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2014-01-01

    Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.

  20. Using Group Projects to Assess the Learning of Sampling Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neidigh, Robert O.; Dunkelberger, Jake

    2012-01-01

    In an introductory business statistics course, student groups used sample data to compare a set of sample means to the theoretical sampling distribution. Each group was given a production measurement with a population mean and standard deviation. The groups were also provided an excel spreadsheet with 40 sample measurements per week for 52 weeks…

  1. Ecological Risk Assessment of a Metal-Contaminated Area in the Tropics. Tier II: Detailed Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemeyer, Júlia Carina; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Ribeiro, Rui; Rutgers, Michiel; Nogueira, Marco Antonio; da Silva, Eduardo Mendes; Sousa, José Paulo

    2015-01-01

    This study presents data on the detailed evaluation (tier 2) of a site-specific ecological risk assessment (ssERA) in a former smelter area contaminated with metals (Santo Amaro, Bahia, Brazil). Combining information from three lines of evidence (LoE), chemical (ChemLoE), ecotoxicological (EcotoxLoE) and ecological (EcoLoE), in the Triad approach, integrated risk values were calculated to rank sites and confirm the potential risk disclosed with tier 1. Risk values were calculated for the habitat and for the retention functions in each sampling point. Habitat function included the ChemLoE calculated from total metal concentrations. The EcotoxLoE was based on reproduction tests with terrestrial invertebrates (Folsomia candida, Enchytraeus crypticus, Eisenia andrei), shoot length and plant biomass (Avena sativa, Brassica rapa). For the EcoLoE, ecological parameters (microbial parameters, soil invertebrate community, litter breakdown) were used to derive risk values. Retention function included the ChemLoE, calculated from extractable metal concentrations, and the EcotoxLoE based on eluate tests with aquatic organisms (Daphnia magna reproduction and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata growth). Results related to the habitat function indicated that the metal residues are sufficient to cause risk to biota, while the low metal levels in extracts and the general lack of toxicity in aquatic tests indicated a high soil retention capacity in most sampling points. Integrated risk of tier 2 showed the same trend of tier 1, suggesting the need to proceed with remediation actions. The high risk levels were related to direct toxicity to organisms and indirect effects, such as failure in the establishment of vegetation and the consequent loss of habitat quality for microorganisms and soil fauna. This study shed some light on the selection of tools for the tier 2 of an ssERA in tropical metal-contaminated sites, focusing on ecological receptors at risk and using available chemical

  2. Ecological Risk Assessment of a Metal-Contaminated Area in the Tropics. Tier II: Detailed Assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Júlia Carina Niemeyer

    Full Text Available This study presents data on the detailed evaluation (tier 2 of a site-specific ecological risk assessment (ssERA in a former smelter area contaminated with metals (Santo Amaro, Bahia, Brazil. Combining information from three lines of evidence (LoE, chemical (ChemLoE, ecotoxicological (EcotoxLoE and ecological (EcoLoE, in the Triad approach, integrated risk values were calculated to rank sites and confirm the potential risk disclosed with tier 1. Risk values were calculated for the habitat and for the retention functions in each sampling point. Habitat function included the ChemLoE calculated from total metal concentrations. The EcotoxLoE was based on reproduction tests with terrestrial invertebrates (Folsomia candida, Enchytraeus crypticus, Eisenia andrei, shoot length and plant biomass (Avena sativa, Brassica rapa. For the EcoLoE, ecological parameters (microbial parameters, soil invertebrate community, litter breakdown were used to derive risk values. Retention function included the ChemLoE, calculated from extractable metal concentrations, and the EcotoxLoE based on eluate tests with aquatic organisms (Daphnia magna reproduction and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata growth. Results related to the habitat function indicated that the metal residues are sufficient to cause risk to biota, while the low metal levels in extracts and the general lack of toxicity in aquatic tests indicated a high soil retention capacity in most sampling points. Integrated risk of tier 2 showed the same trend of tier 1, suggesting the need to proceed with remediation actions. The high risk levels were related to direct toxicity to organisms and indirect effects, such as failure in the establishment of vegetation and the consequent loss of habitat quality for microorganisms and soil fauna. This study shed some light on the selection of tools for the tier 2 of an ssERA in tropical metal-contaminated sites, focusing on ecological receptors at risk and using available

  3. Psychometric Properties of the Social and Emotional Health Survey with a Small Sample of Academically At-Risk Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renshaw, Tyler L.

    2016-01-01

    The present study examines the psychometric properties of the Social and Emotional Health Survey (SEHS), which is a 32-item self-report behavior rating scale for assessing youths' social-emotional competencies, with a small sample (N = 77) of academically at-risk students attending a limited-residency charter school. This study is the first to…

  4. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Hines, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain

  5. Spatial Variation of Soil Lead in an Urban Community Garden: Implications for Risk-Based Sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugdalski, Lauren; Lemke, Lawrence D; McElmurry, Shawn P

    2014-01-01

    Soil lead pollution is a recalcitrant problem in urban areas resulting from a combination of historical residential, industrial, and transportation practices. The emergence of urban gardening movements in postindustrial cities necessitates accurate assessment of soil lead levels to ensure safe gardening. In this study, we examined small-scale spatial variability of soil lead within a 15 × 30 m urban garden plot established on two adjacent residential lots located in Detroit, Michigan, USA. Eighty samples collected using a variably spaced sampling grid were analyzed for total, fine fraction (less than 250 μm), and bioaccessible soil lead. Measured concentrations varied at sampling scales of 1-10 m and a hot spot exceeding 400 ppm total soil lead was identified in the northwest portion of the site. An interpolated map of total lead was treated as an exhaustive data set, and random sampling was simulated to generate Monte Carlo distributions and evaluate alternative sampling strategies intended to estimate the average soil lead concentration or detect hot spots. Increasing the number of individual samples decreases the probability of overlooking the hot spot (type II error). However, the practice of compositing and averaging samples decreased the probability of overestimating the mean concentration (type I error) at the expense of increasing the chance for type II error. The results reported here suggest a need to reconsider U.S. Environmental Protection Agency sampling objectives and consequent guidelines for reclaimed city lots where soil lead distributions are expected to be nonuniform. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  7. Psychopathological risk factors for partner aggression in a community sample

    OpenAIRE

    María Luisa Factores de riesgo psicopatológicos para la agresión en la pareja en una muestra comunitaria Psychopathological risk factors for partner aggression in a community sample Cuenca; José Luis Graña

    2016-01-01

    The present study examines the predictive value of certain psychopathological variables for physical aggression, from the developmental and dyadic perspectives, in a sample of 2,032 heterosexual couples from the Madrid Region, through the Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS-2). The results showed a higher prevalence of psychological aggression than of physical aggression, and significant differences in low level physical aggression in the case of women, 13% vs. 10%, chi;2(1, N=4.064)=7.43, p less tha...

  8. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO ASSESSMENTS OF HEALTH RISKS IN HYGIENIC RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Biblin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This review of publications presents the analysis of national scientific publications and methodological documents on health risks assessments under unfavorable external impacts. In available research publications, the hygienic risks assessment is most often considered in situations of chemicals impact, and such assessment has sufficient methodological providing. Comparison of publications and methodological documents allows determination of the possibility of methodological unity for health risk assessment in conditions of chemical and radiation impacts.

  9. Cardiovascular risk factors and cardiac surgery outcomes in a multiethnic sample of men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verderber, A; Castelfranco, A M; Nishioka, D; Johnson, K G

    1999-05-01

    Cardiovascular disease is more prevalent in some ethnic groups than in others, as are risk factors stemming from cultural practices and values. Data on the health status of Asians and Pacific Islanders are scarce and sporadic, and data on the 2 groups are usually combined for analysis. To determine ethnic and sex-related differences among white, Japanese, and Pacific Island subjects in cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Data were collected from a random sample of 41 men and 19 women scheduled for nonemergent coronary artery bypass graft surgery: 19 white, 18 Japanese, and 23 Pacific Island/Hawaiian subjects. Subjects were interviewed about risk factors before surgery and were followed up for the first 20 hours after surgery. Problems that occurred during the remainder of the hospital stay were assessed by chart review. Instruments used included the Charlson Comorbidity Index, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and the Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System. Pacific Island and Japanese subjects differed significantly in their demographic and clinical characteristics. Pacific Islanders tended to have a more difficult postoperative course than did white subjects, whereas Japanese patients tended to have fewer problems and an easier postoperative course than other subjects. Further study of ethnic variations in risk factors and surgical outcomes, especially variations in comorbidities, age at the onset of signs and symptoms, and postoperative complications, is needed. Combining data obtained from Japanese and Pacific Island subjects for data analysis most likely will result in a loss of important information.

  10. Bayesian adaptive determination of the sample size required to assure acceptably low adverse event risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence Gould, A; Zhang, Xiaohua Douglas

    2014-03-15

    An emerging concern with new therapeutic agents, especially treatments for type 2 diabetes, a prevalent condition that increases an individual's risk of heart attack or stroke, is the likelihood of adverse events, especially cardiovascular events, that the new agents may cause. These concerns have led to regulatory requirements for demonstrating that a new agent increases the risk of an adverse event relative to a control by no more than, say, 30% or 80% with high (e.g., 97.5%) confidence. We describe a Bayesian adaptive procedure for determining if the sample size for a development program needs to be increased and, if necessary, by how much, to provide the required assurance of limited risk. The decision is based on the predictive likelihood of a sufficiently high posterior probability that the relative risk is no more than a specified bound. Allowance can be made for between-center as well as within-center variability to accommodate large-scale developmental programs, and design alternatives (e.g., many small centers, few large centers) for obtaining additional data if needed can be explored. Binomial or Poisson likelihoods can be used, and center-level covariates can be accommodated. The predictive likelihoods are explored under various conditions to assess the statistical properties of the method. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Assessing Racial Microaggression Distress in a Diverse Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Harding, Susan; Turner, Tasha

    2015-12-01

    Racial microaggressions are everyday subtle or ambiguous racially related insults, slights, mistreatment, or invalidations. Racial microaggressions are a type of perceived racism that may negatively impact the health and well-being of people of color in the United States. This study examined the reliability and validity of the Racial Microaggression Scale distress subscales, which measure the perceived stressfulness of six types of microaggression experiences in a racially and ethnically diverse sample. These subscales exhibited acceptable to good internal consistency. The distress subscales also evidenced good convergent validity; the distress subscales were positively correlated with additional measures of stressfulness due to experiencing microaggressions or everyday discrimination. When controlling for the frequency of one's exposure to microaggression incidents, some racial/ethnic group differences were found. Asian Americans reported comparatively lower distress and Latinos reporting comparatively higher distress in response to Foreigner, Low-Achieving, Invisibility, and Environmental microaggressions. African Americans reported higher distress than the other groups in response to Environmental microaggressions. Results suggest that the Racial Microaggressions Scale distress subscales may aid health professionals in assessing the distress elicited by different types of microaggressions. In turn, this may facilitate diagnosis and treatment planning in order to provide multiculturally competent care for African American, Latino, and Asian American clients. © The Author(s) 2014.

  12. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  13. Risk assessment framework for emerging vector-borne livestock diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, de C.J.; Hoek, M.R.; Fischer, E.A.J.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Bremmer, J.

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this project was to develop a framework for risk assessment of introduction, establishment, spread and persistence of vector-borne livestock diseases by integrating the essential elements of different approaches. This framework will help risk analysts to assess the risk of

  14. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  15. Risk assessment and safety regulations in offshore oil and gas ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk management of which risk assessment is part, and safety regulations are common in the offshore oil and gas industry management system. The process of conducting risk assessment is mostly a challenge for operational personnel assigned to perform this function. The most significant problem is the decision to use ...

  16. IDA’s Integrated Risk Assessment and Management Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    Management Model James S. Thomason, Project Leader Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This work was conducted under IDA’s independent...P-4470 IDA’s Integrated Risk Assessment and Management Model James S. Thomason, Project Leader IDA’s Integrated Risk Assessment and... Management Model INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES “There has been plenty of risk management talk,

  17. A new hypervolume approach for assessing environmental risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Bo Lu; Ronald Fournier; Gericke Cook; Jean J. Turgeon

    2017-01-01

    Assessing risks of uncertain but potentially damaging events, such as environmental disturbances, disease outbreaks and pest invasions, is a key analytical step that informs subsequent decisions about how to respond to these events. We present a continuous risk measure that can be used to assess and prioritize environmental risks from uncertain data in a geographical...

  18. Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) | Amin ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objectives of this paper are to critically examine the risk assessment provisions of the Malaysian Biosafety Act (2007), and to compare it with several risk ... with only a brief provision on risk assessment and there is no specific coverage on the socio-economic and ethical aspects as well as the precautionary approach.

  19. Differences between Teacher Reports on Universal Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Millman, Marissa K.; Flaspohler, Paul D.; Maras, Melissa A.; Splett, Joni Williams; Warmbold, Kristy; Dinnen, Hannah; Luebbe, Aaron

    2017-01-01

    Some universal behavioural screening processes require classroom teachers to complete a risk assessment measure on each student in their class, leading to a possible, but unexplored, problem: risk assessment scores may be influenced by the teacher completing the measure. The current study investigated whether teacher-reported risk assessment…

  20. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.

    2000-01-01

    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews

  1. Familial risk assessment for early-onset coronary heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuner, Maren T; Whitworth, William C; McGruder, Henraya; Yoon, Paula W; Khoury, Muin J

    2006-08-01

    We examined the performance of a familial risk assessment method that stratifies risk for early-onset coronary heart disease by considering the number of relatives with coronary disease, degree of relationship, lineage, and age at diagnosis. By using data from the HealthStyles 2003 survey, we assessed the associations between familial risk and early-onset coronary heart disease, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and obesity. By using area under the curve statistics, we evaluated the discriminatory ability of various risk assessment models. Of 4,035 respondents, 60% were female and 72% were white, with a mean age of 48.8 years. After adjustment for demographics, strong and moderate risk were significantly associated with approximately a five- and twofold risk of early-onset coronary disease, respectively. After adjustment for demographics and personal history of cardiovascular disease, strong familial risk was also significantly associated with diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and obesity. A risk assessment model that included familial risk, demographics, and personal history of diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and obesity was most optimal with an area under the curve statistic of 87.2% Familial risk assessment can stratify risk for early-onset coronary heart disease. Several conditions associated with increased familial risk can be prevented. These results have important implications for risk assessment and risk-reducing interventions.

  2. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  3. Violence against women: prevalence and risk factors in Turkish sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Selma; Bolsoy, Nursen

    2017-11-03

    This study reports on a large cross-sectional study of violence against women in Turkey, and outlines the risk factors associated with intimate partner violence. The purpose of this study was to identify in order to evaluate the domestic violence against women living in Manisa and to determine the risk factors affecting this situation. We implemented a cross-sectional descriptive study in the Manisa province of Turkey. The research data were collected by using a "Women's Information Form" consisting of 32 items, and "Scale of Domestic Violence Against Women". The study was conducted with 1760 women who complied with the inclusion criteria. It was determined that score averages of 30.0% of women from the scale of domestic violence against women were above the score average of the scale (71.38 ± 10.71) and they were exposed to violence more than the others. A statistically significant difference was obtained in the statistical analysis made between score averages from the scale of domestic violence against women and such variables as age, education, employment status, social insurance, immigration status, place of residence, marital age, year of marriage of women; age, education status, employment status of husband; and whether the husband has another wife (p violence against women is high, women does not perceive many behaviors of their husbands as violence, and the most important factor leading to this situation is social status. It is believed that the results of the study will be a guidance to local authorities, formal and voluntary organizations, educational institutions, and relevant researchers in the prevention of violence against women.

  4. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  5. Risk Assessment Model and Supply Chain Risk Catalog

    OpenAIRE

    Borut Jereb; Tina Cvahte; Bojan Rosi

    2011-01-01

    By managing risk on the level of the supply chain we gain insight of all potential threats to all organizations involved in the chain as well as to the supply chain itself, especially to the logistics resources: flow of goods, services and information; logistics infrastructure and suprastructure; and people. Supply chain risk management should represent a crucial activity in every organization. As there is currently no standard specifically aimed at holistic supply chain risk management, we p...

  6. USING COPULAS TO MODEL DEPENDENCE IN SIMULATION RISK ASSESSMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dana L. Kelly

    2007-11-01

    Typical engineering systems in applications with high failure consequences such as nuclear reactor plants often employ redundancy and diversity of equipment in an effort to lower the probability of failure and therefore risk. However, it has long been recognized that dependencies exist in these redundant and diverse systems. Some dependencies, such as common sources of electrical power, are typically captured in the logic structure of the risk model. Others, usually referred to as intercomponent dependencies, are treated implicitly by introducing one or more statistical parameters into the model. Such common-cause failure models have limitations in a simulation environment. In addition, substantial subjectivity is associated with parameter estimation for these models. This paper describes an approach in which system performance is simulated by drawing samples from the joint distributions of dependent variables. The approach relies on the notion of a copula distribution, a notion which has been employed by the actuarial community for ten years or more, but which has seen only limited application in technological risk assessment. The paper also illustrates how equipment failure data can be used in a Bayesian framework to estimate the parameter values in the copula model. This approach avoids much of the subjectivity required to estimate parameters in traditional common-cause failure models. Simulation examples are presented for failures in time. The open-source software package R is used to perform the simulations. The open-source software package WinBUGS is used to perform the Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.

  7. Risk factors and assessment for cardiovascular disease among HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: cardiovascular risk factors are prevalent in HIV-positive patients which places them at increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to determine the risk factors and risk assessment for CVD in HIV-positive patients with and without antiretroviral therapy. Methods: this was a cross-sectional study of ...

  8. an assessment of methods for sampling carabid beetles

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mgina

    Moist leaf litter was scooped onto white clothing (1 square metre beating sheet) and carabid beetles caught using a “pootah” (aspirator) or a pair of forceps. Resting beetles were sampled by manual searching under logs, stones and tree barks. Sampling effort was measured by time, each "sample" containing carabid.

  9. Assessment of helminth load in faecal samples of free range ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    0.2-0.5g of feacal sample was collected from birds between January and September, 2011. Feacal samples were collected from 224 birds in both dry and wet season. Feacal sample were analyzed for helminths load using wet preparation, sedimentation and floatation method for the isolation and identification of helminths ...

  10. an assessment of methods for sampling carabid beetles

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mgina

    particular habitat where we sampled (rugged montane rain forest) pitfall trapping has no advantage over searching methods with respect to ease of operation, low cost or efficiency. However, despite its inefficiency, pitfall trapping cannot be left out of sampling protocols because the method sampled some species that were ...

  11. Assessment of toxic heavy metal loading in topsoil samples within ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Loading of Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu, Co, Mn, Ni, Zn, and Fe in topsoil samples (TS) collected from the vicinity of limestone quarry in South Western Nigeria was investigated. Thirty TS were sampled within ½ km radius from exploration area and 5 background samples from undeveloped area 10 km away from the study area. Limestone ...

  12. Photogrammetry in Experiments for Hydrogeological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barazzetti, L.; Scaioni, M.; Feng, T.; Qiao, G.; Lu, P.; Tong, X.; Li, R.

    2013-01-01

    The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN) to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors) can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors), potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China).

  13. [Research on risk factors associated with osteoporosis, on two samples of patients investigated using ultrasonic osteo-densitometry].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejan, V; Azoicăi, Doina; Saviuc, Elena; Olteanu, St; Miu, Smaranda; Ivan, A

    2007-01-01

    To detect risk factors associated with osteoporosis, on two samples of patients investigated using ultrasonic osteo-densitometry method (UOD). To found out the relation between anthropometrical data, factors which describe lifestyle of personal pathologic antecedents and T score obtained after UOD, as well as their classification. The epidemiological and imaging assessments were carried out on two samples of 364 persons from general population (the A sample), and 144 (the B sample), respectively. The registered variables were processed using adequate statistical tests. In the A sample, over 50% of patients had, after the T score, osteopenia, and 10% suffered from osteoporosis. Concerning the lifestyle, we highlighted: a low lactates consumption (69.7%), coffee (14.3%) and alcohol (0.8%) consumption; sedentary life (48.9%), tobacco smoking (2.2%). The risk quantification by score calculation put in evidence an average of 9.9 +/- 3.3 (for a minimum of 4 and a maximum of 20). In the B sample, the T score varied between 4.77 and 1.67. The assessment of relation between the T score and lifestyle permitted the classification in risk, protection and indifferent factors. Coffee consumption is a weak protection factor (OR = 0.84), and tobacco smoking increases osteoporosis risk 4.13 times. The risk is 3.7 for alcohol consumers, as well as for low lactate consumption (OR=2.87). Sedentary life cannot consider a risk factor, in our research. Calculation of a individual score that show the weight risk in persons with densitometric alterations represents a practical method in monitoring persons who can be exposed of some handicap after alterations of bone structures.

  14. Psychopathological risk factors for partner aggression in a community sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Luisa Factores de riesgo psicopatológicos para la agresión en la pareja en una muestra comunitaria Psychopathological risk factors for partner aggression in a community sample; Cuenca

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The present study examines the predictive value of certain psychopathological variables for physical aggression, from the developmental and dyadic perspectives, in a sample of 2,032 heterosexual couples from the Madrid Region, through the Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS-2. The results showed a higher prevalence of psychological aggression than of physical aggression, and significant differences in low level physical aggression in the case of women, 13% vs. 10%, chi;2(1, N=4.064=7.43, p less than.001. The results confirm that symptoms of hostility, impulsive, borderline, and antisocial personality traits, alcohol consumption, and the experience of victimization have a greater impact on younger men and women (18-29 years. The implications of the results for prevention of partner violence and for couple therapy are discussed.

  15. 78 FR 27939 - Draft Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-13

    ... Draft Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: Notice of... Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens.'' This draft quantitative risk assessment (QRA... conditions, such as Listeria (L.) monocytogenes contamination of certain ready-to-eat (RTE) foods, for...

  16. Exposure Data for Travel Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O; Koornstra, Matthijs; Broughton, Jeremy

    1999-01-01

    This report illustrates why risk and exposure data are critical for policymaking at local, national and EU levels.Conclusions are drawn about the evaluation and use of risk information for different modes and estimates are presented for the fatality risk of various travel modes in the EU....

  17. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... greater risk for heart disease and other conditions: Risk Factors High blood pressure (hypertension) High LDL cholesterol ("bad" cholesterol) Low HDL cholesterol ("good" cholesterol) High triglycerides High blood ... to 29.9) and have two or more risk factors, it is recommended that you lose weight. Even ...

  18. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Ozone Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    The health risk assessment described in this report estimated various health effects associated with O3 exposures as well as the reduced risks for one O3 season associated with just meeting the current O3 NAAQS.

  20. FIFRA Peer Review: Proposed Risk Assessment Methods Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    From September 11-14, 2012, EPA participated in a Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act Scientific Advisory Panel (SAP) meeting on a proposed pollinator risk assessment framework for determining the potential risks of pesticides to honey bees.

  1. Human Health Risk Assessment: A case study application of principles in dose response assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This case study application workshop will build on fundamental concepts and techniques in risk assessment presented and archived at previous TRAC meeting workshops. Practical examples from publicly available, peer reviewed risk assessments will be used as teaching aids. Course ...

  2. Preliminary biogeochemical assessment of EPICA LGM and Holocene ice samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulat, S.; Alekhina, I.; Marie, D.; Wagenbach, D.; Raynaud, D.; Petit, J. R.

    2009-04-01

    weak signals were possible to generate which are now under cloning. The signals were hard to reproduce because of rather low volume of samples. More ice volume is needed to get the biosignal stronger and reproducible. Meantime we are adjusting PCR and in addition testing DNA repair-enzyme cocktail in case of DNA damage. As a preliminary conclusion we would like to highlight the following. Both Holocene and LGM ice samples (EDC99 and EDML) are very clean in terms of Ultra low biomass and Ultra low DOC content. The most basal ice of EDC and EDML ice cores could help in assessing microbial biomass and diversity if present under the glacier at the ice-bedrock boundary. * The present-day consortium includes S. Bulat, I. Alekhina, P. Normand, D. Prieur, J-R. Petit and D. Raynaud (France) and E. Willerslev and J.P. Steffensen (Denmark)

  3. Assessment of cardiometabolic risk among shift workers in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jermendy György

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim Shift workers may be at risk of different diseases. In order to assess cardiometabolic risk in shift workers, a cross-sectional study was performed among active workers. Methods A total of 481 workers (121 men, 360 women were investigated; most of them were employees in light industry (58.2% or in public services (23.9%. Past medical history was recorded and physical examination was performed. Questionnaires were used to characterize daily activity. Fasting venous blood sample was collected for measuring laboratory parameters. Data from shift workers (n = 234, age: 43.9 ± 8.1 years were compared to those of daytime workers (n = 247, age: 42.8 ± 8.5 years, men and women were analyzed separately. Results In men, systolic blood pressure was higher in shift workers compared to daytime workers (133 ± 8 vs 126 ± 17 mmHg; p vs 67.7 ± 13.2 kg; p vs 13.4%; p vs 21.7%; p vs 1.68 ± 0.36 mmol/l; p Conclusion Middle-aged active shift workers, especially women, have a less healthy lifestyle and are at higher cardiometabolic risk as compared to daytime workers. Our study highlights the importance of measures for identifying and preventing cardiometabolic risk factors in shift workers.

  4. Systematic Suicide Risk Assessment for Patients With Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Charlotte Gjørup; Wallenstein Jensen, Signe Olrik; Gradus, Jaimie

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: Systematic suicide risk assessment is recommended for patients with schizophrenia; however, little is known about the implementation of suicide risk assessment in routine clinical practice. The study aimed to determine the use of systematic suicide risk assessment at discharge....... Results: The proportion of patients receiving suicide risk assessment at discharge from a psychiatric ward increased from 72% (95% confidence interval [CI]=71%-74%) in 2005, when the national monitoring began, to 89% (CI.89%-90%) in 2009. Within one year after discharge, 1% of all registered patients had...... died by suicide and 8% had attempted suicide. One out of three patients who died by suicide had no documented suicide risk assessment before discharge. Conclusions: The use of systematic suicide risk assessment at discharge among patients with schizophrenia increased in Denmark between 2005 and 2009...

  5. Brief Report: Risk-Taking Behaviors in a Non-Western Urban Adolescent Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayar, Nalan; Sayil, Melike

    2005-01-01

    This study analyzes the age and gender related risk-taking behaviors of Turkish adolescents in an urban sample. A self-report risk taking scale was administered to 280 adolescents between the ages of 12-21. Results revealed that both the type and the frequency of risk-taking behaviors were changed according to age and gender. All risky behaviors…

  6. Problematic Internet use and associated risks in a college sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derbyshire, Katherine L; Lust, Katherine A; Schreiber, Liana R N; Odlaug, Brian L; Christenson, Gary A; Golden, David J; Grant, Jon E

    2013-07-01

    The Internet is commonly used among young adults; however, Internet use may become a problematic behavior. Past research has examined Internet behavior in young adults and its relationship to other behaviors and health issues, yet further research is needed to gain a more comprehensive understanding of this relationship. A sample (n=2108) of college students (56.9% female) was examined using a self-report Internet survey concerning demographic characteristics, Internet use, health behaviors, psychosocial functioning, and psychiatric comorbidities. The IAT was used to determine levels of problematic Internet use (limited use (none or almost no use), mild use (typical user), moderate use (occasional problems) and severe use (frequent, serious problems)) and the MINI for testing for psychiatric problems. We found that 237 students (12.9%) met criteria for limited Internet use, 1502 (81.8%) for mild Internet use and 98 (5.3%) for moderate to severe Internet use. Variables significantly associated with greater frequency of Internet use included lower Grade Point Average (p=.006), less frequent exercise (p=.018), higher PHQ-9 scores (pStress Scores (p<.0001). These data indicate that moderate to severe Internet use is associated with a range of psychosocial problems in young adults. More research is needed to better understand the relationship between Internet use and physical and mental health, as well as academic variables. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Spousal assaulters in outpatient mental health care : The relevance of structured risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Serie, C.M.B.; van Tilburg, C.A.; van Dam, A.; de Ruiter, C.

    2017-01-01

    This study examined whether a typology of perpetrators of intimate partner violence (IPV) could be replicated in a Dutch sample (N = 154) of self-referred IPV perpetrators using a structured risk assessment tool for relational violence (Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk

  8. Effective Methodology for Security Risk Assessment of Computer Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel F. García; Adrián Fernández

    2013-01-01

    Today, computer systems are more and more complex and support growing security risks. The security managers need to find effective security risk assessment methodologies that allow modeling well the increasing complexity of current computer systems but also maintaining low the complexity of the assessment procedure. This paper provides a brief analysis of common security risk assessment methodologies leading to the selection of a proper methodology to fulfill these requirements. Then, a detai...

  9. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamel, D.R. [Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  10. Risk Assessment and Hierarchical Risk Management of Enterprises in Chemical Industrial Parks Based on Catastrophe Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Zhenyu Liu; Yun Zhang; Shushen Zhang; Fenglin Yang; Guobao Song; Yu Chen

    2012-01-01

    According to risk systems theory and the characteristics of the chemical industry, an index system was established for risk assessment of enterprises in chemical industrial parks (CIPs) based on the inherent risk of the source, effectiveness of the prevention and control mechanism, and vulnerability of the receptor. A comprehensive risk assessment method based on catastrophe theory was then proposed and used to analyze the risk levels of ten major chemical enterprises in the Songmu Island CIP...

  11. Validation and adaptation of the danger assessment-5: A brief intimate partner violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messing, Jill Theresa; Campbell, Jacquelyn C; Snider, Carolyn

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the predictive validity of the DA-5 with the addition of a strangulation item in evaluating the risk of an intimate partner violence (IPV) victim being nearly killed by an intimate partner. The DA-5 was developed as a short form of the Danger Assessment for use in healthcare settings, including emergency and urgent care settings. Analyzing data from a sample of IPV survivors who had called the police for domestic violence, the DA-5 was tested with and without an item on strangulation, a potentially fatal and medically damaging IPV tactic used commonly by dangerous abusers. Researchers interviewed a heterogeneous sample of 1,081 women recruited by police between 2009-2013 at the scene of a domestic violence call; 619 (57.3%) were contacted and re-interviewed after an average of 7 months. The predictive validity of the DA-5 was assessed for the outcome of severe or near lethal IPV re-assault using sensitivity, specificity and ROC curve analysis techniques. The original DA-5 was found to be accurate (AUC = .68), equally accurate with the strangulation item from the original DA substituted (AUC = .68) and slightly more accurate (but not a statistically significant difference) if multiple strangulation is assessed. We recommend that the DA-5 with the strangulation item be used for a quick assessment of homicide or near homicide risk among IPV survivors. A protocol for immediate referral and examination for further injury from strangulation should be adopted for IPV survivors at high risk. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Cardiovascular risk factor associations in adults with psychosis and adults in a national comparator sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Debra L; Mackinnon, Andrew; Morgan, Vera A; Watts, Gerald F; Shaw, Jonathan E; Magliano, Dianna J; Castle, David J; McGrath, John J; Waterreus, Anna; Galletly, Cherrie A

    2015-08-01

    Antipsychotic drug treatment alters status on key risk factors for cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to test whether cardiovascular risk factor associations differ in adults with psychosis and adults from the general community. Data were analysed for those aged 25-64 years from a nationally representative psychosis sample (n = 1,457) and a national comparator sample (n = 8,866). The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to estimate the association among tobacco use, body mass index, waist circumference, diastolic and systolic blood pressure and fasting total-, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides and plasma glucose. The robust Levene test was used to test for sample differences in variance. Correlations among cardiovascular risk indicators and between cardiovascular risk indicators and age were often significantly weaker in those with psychosis than in those from the national comparator sample. This was not due to a reduction in variance within the psychosis sample. Risk prediction that synthesizes multivariate risk indicator data needs to be connected to verified cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in those with psychosis to determine if standard risk calculators adequately discriminate those at high, medium and low future risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Until then the clinical implications of low or absent correlations among cardiovascular risk indicators and their low or absent association with increasing age is unclear but may indicate that risk equations commonly used in the general population may not be applicable for those with treated psychosis. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

  13. INFORMATION SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT USING EXISTING LEGAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Trubei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides a survey of the existing regulatory framework for information security riskmanagement. Practical methods for information security risk and vulnerability assessment are proposed.

  14. RISK FACTORS FOR ANXIETY DISORDERS: COMMON AND SPECIFIC EFFECTS IN A NATIONAL SAMPLE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, Carlos; Rubio, José; Wall, Melanie; Wang, Shuai; Jiu, Chelsea J.; Kendler, Kenneth S.

    2014-01-01

    Background Anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder (MDD) often co-occur and share a broad range of risk factors. The goal of this study was to examine whether the co-occurrence of anxiety disorders and MDD could be explained by an underlying latent factor and whether the risk factors exert their effect exclusively through this factor, directly on each disorder, or through a combination of effects at both levels. Methods Data were drawn from a large, nationally representative sample. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to identify the latent structure of anxiety disorders. A multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) approach was used to assess the common and specific effects of risk factors for anxiety disorders. Results A one-factor model provided a good fit to the co-occurrence of anxiety disorders. Low self-esteem, family history of depression, female sex, childhood sexual abuse, White race, years of education, number of traumatic experiences, and disturbed family environment increased the risk of anxiety disorders and MDD through their effect on the latent factor. There were also several direct effects of the covariates on the disorders, indicating that the effect of the covariates differed across disorders. Conclusions Risk for anxiety disorders and MDD appears to be mediated partially by a latent variable underlying anxiety disorders and MDD, and partially by disorder-specific effects. These findings may contribute to account for the high rates of comorbidity among disorders, identify commonalities in the etiologies of these disorders, and provide clues for the development of unified preventive interventions. PMID:24577934

  15. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  16. Behavioral risk assessment for infectious diseases (BRAID): Self-report instrument to assess injection and noninjection risk behaviors in substance users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Kelly E; Barrett, Frederick S; Herrmann, Evan S; Plebani, Jennifer G; Sigmon, Stacey C; Johnson, Matthew W

    2016-11-01

    Infectious diseases such as Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Hepatitis C are a significant problem among substance abusers. Current risk behavior measures [e.g., HIV Risk Taking Behaviour Scale (HRBS) and Risk Assessment Battery (RAB)] were developed for injection drug users and do not include newly identified risks or noninjection drug use behaviors. This study developed and provided initial, internal validation of the Behavioral Risk Assessment for Infectious Diseases (BRAID) to assess infectious disease risk behaviors among alcohol and other drug users. A self-report measure was developed from literature regarding risk behaviors. Participants (total N=998) with alcohol/substance use disorder completed the measure in 2 phases to establish initial psychometric validity. Phase 1 (N=270) completed 65 self-report questions; factor analysis revealed a 12-item solution with 5 factors (Unprotected Sex with Risky Partners, Injection Use, Sex on Cocaine/Crack, Condom Availability, and Intranasal Drug Use). Infectious disease history was positively associated with Injection Use (Sample 1) and Unprotected Sex with Risky Partners (Sample 2) and negatively associated with Intranasal Drug Use (Samples 1 and 2). Phase 2 (N=728) added additional injection-related items and confirmed the factor structure of the existing BRAID. The BRAID is a 5-factor, 14-item self-report measure of past 6 month risk behaviors that is composed of noninjection and injection risk behaviors and was psychometrically confirmed. Though additional external (convergent/divergent) validation is needed, this report provides preliminary support for the use of the BRAID to assess infectious disease risk in substance users. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Cavity degradation risk insurance assessment. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hampson, C.; Neill, P.; de Bivort, L.

    1980-01-01

    This study examined the risks and risk management issues involved with the implementation by electric power utilities of compressed air energy storage and underground pumped hydro storage systems. The results are listed in terms of relative risks for the construction and operation of these systems in different geologic deposits, with varying amounts of pressurization, with natural or man-made disasters in the vicinity of the storage equipment, and with different modes of operating the facilities. (LCL)

  18. THE ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE OF THE OPERATIONAL RISK EVENTS

    OpenAIRE

    Iulia Iuga

    2009-01-01

    A credit institution must establish a management framework of the operational risk.This framework must cover the appetite and tolerance to the operational risk of a credit institution,in accordance with the management policies of this risk, including the measure and method inwhich the operational risk is transferred outside the credit institution.The management framework of the operational risk should include policies and processes for theidentification, assessment, monitoring and control/dim...

  19. Validated sampling strategy for assessing contaminants in soil stockpiles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lamé, F.; Honders, T.; Derksen, G.B.; Gadella, M.

    2005-01-01

    Dutch legislation on the reuse of soil requires a sampling strategy to determine the degree of contamination. This sampling strategy was developed in three stages. Its main aim is to obtain a single analytical result, representative of the true mean concentration of the soil stockpile. The

  20. Adaptive cluster sampling: An efficient method for assessing inconspicuous species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrea M. Silletti; Joan Walker

    2003-01-01

    Restorationistis typically evaluate the success of a project by estimating the population sizes of species that have been planted or seeded. Because total census is raely feasible, they must rely on sampling methods for population estimates. However, traditional random sampling designs may be inefficient for species that, for one reason or another, are challenging to...

  1. Human Health Toxicity Values in Superfund Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    This memorandum revises the hierarchy of human health toxicity values generally recommended for use inr isk assessments, originally presented in Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Volume I, Part A.

  2. Dangerousness and risk assessment: the state of the art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Arie; Rosca, Paula; Khawalled, Razak; Gruzniewski, Adrian; Grinshpoon, Alex

    2003-01-01

    Risk or dangerousness is an issue which burdens the minds of all mental health and law enforcement professionals. Researchers have attempted to define its extent and constituent elements and to predict and assess it. Risk assessment is a complex task, influenced by the interaction of many variables, such as previous pattern of violence, biological, sociological and psychological factors, divided into facilitating and inhibiting factors. In our paper we discuss the theoretical concepts linked with dangerousness prediction and assessment, and then review the "first" and "second" generations of literature on dangerousness and risk assessment, including the actuarial instruments. We then present the current trends in the field, concentrating on the correlation between dangerousness and mental disorders, dangerousness analysis and risk management, a wider concept including prevention, treatment and communication of risk. Although great progress has been made in this field, there are still many unresolved issues, among them the development of valid instruments for the assessment of risk.

  3. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  4. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  5. Development of the Sports Organization Concussion Risk Assessment Tool (SOCRAT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, A; Munjal, V; Virji-Babul, N

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the development of a novel tool-the Sports Organization Concussion Risk Assessment Tool (SOCRAT)-to assist sport organizations in assessing the overall risk of concussion at a team level by identifying key risk factors. We first conducted a literature review to identify risk factors of concussion using ice hockey as a model. We then developed an algorithm by combining the severity and the probability of occurrence of concussions of the identified risk factors by adapting a risk assessment tool commonly used in engineering applications. The following risk factors for ice hockey were identified: age, history of previous concussions, previous body checking experience, allowance of body checking, type of helmet worn and the game or practice environment. These risk factors were incorporated into the algorithm, resulting in an individual risk priority number (RPN) for each risk factor and an overall RPN that provides an estimate of the risk in the given circumstances. The SOCRAT can be used to analyse how different risk factors contribute to the overall risk of concussion. The tool may be tailored to organizations to provide: (1) an RPN for each risk factor and (2) an overall RPN that takes into account all the risk factors. Further work is needed to validate the tool based on real data.

  6. Assessing risk: the role of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in patient safety improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wreathall, J; Nemeth, C

    2004-06-01

    Morbidity and mortality due to "medical errors" compel better understanding of health care as a system. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been used to assess the designs of high hazard, low risk systems such as commercial nuclear power plants and chemical manufacturing plants and is now being studied for its potential in the improvement of patient safety. PRA examines events that contribute to adverse outcomes through the use of event tree analysis and determines the likelihood of event occurrence through fault tree analysis. It complements tools already in use in patient safety such as failure modes and effects analyses (FMEAs) and root cause analyses (RCAs). PRA improves on RCA by taking account of the more complex causal interrelationships that are typical in health care. It also enables the analyst to examine potential solution effectiveness by direct graphical representations. However, PRA simplifies real world complexity by forcing binary conditions on events, and it lacks adequate probability data (although recent developments help to overcome these limitations). Its reliance on expert assessment calls for deep domain knowledge which has to come from research performed at the "sharp end" of acute care.

  7. Assessment of weather risk on chestnut production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Caramelo, L.

    2009-04-01

    to March) precipitation, the number of days with maximum temperature between 24°C and 28°C and the number of days of May with minimum temperature below 0°C is able to model the chestnut productivity with r2 equal to 0.79. It should be pointed out that the relation between weather/climate and chestnut productivity may change over time. Finally, it is important to express objectively the effects of temperature and precipitation extremes on the chestnut productivity since temperature is one of the global circulation models predicted variables with less uncertainty. With these tools will be possible to assess the weather related risk on chestnut production as well as infer about evolution of the adequate conditions to the chestnut trees in the actual plantations and about the expansion of this specie. Bounous, G. (2002) "Il castagno" [Chestnut.] - Edagricole, Bologna. [In Ital.] Gomes-Laranjo, J., Coutinho, J.P., Ferreira-Cardoso, J., Pimentel-Pereira, M., Ramos, C., Torres-Pereira, J.(2005) "Assessment to a new concept of chestnut orchard management in vegetative wall.". Acta Hort. 693: 707-712. Gomes-Laranjo, J.C.E., Peixoto, F., Wong Fong Sang, H.W., Torres-Pereira, J.M.G.(2006) "Study of the temperature effect in three chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivars' behavior". J. Plant Physiol. 163: 945-955.

  8. Assessing the Construct Validity of Risk Attitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Smidts, A.

    2000-01-01

    Two major approaches to measuring risk attitude are compared. One, based on the expected utility model is derived from responses to lotteries and direct scaling. The other measure is a psychometric approach based on Likert statements that produces a unidimensional risk attitude scale. The data are

  9. Stringent and efficient assessment of boson-sampling devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tichy, Malte C; Mayer, Klaus; Buchleitner, Andreas; Mølmer, Klaus

    2014-07-11

    Boson sampling holds the potential to experimentally falsify the extended Church-Turing thesis. The computational hardness of boson sampling, however, complicates the certification that an experimental device yields correct results in the regime in which it outmatches classical computers. To certify a boson sampler, one needs to verify quantum predictions and rule out models that yield these predictions without true many-boson interference. We show that a semiclassical model for many-boson propagation reproduces coarse-grained observables that are proposed as witnesses of boson sampling. A test based on Fourier matrices is demonstrated to falsify physically plausible alternatives to coherent many-boson propagation.

  10. Sexual HIV risk behaviors in a treatment-refractory opioid-dependent sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHugh, R Kathryn; Weitzman, Meara; Safren, Steven A; Murray, Heather W; Pollack, Mark H; Otto, Michael W

    2012-01-01

    The propensity to engage in risk behaviors confers an elevated risk of HIV and other infectious disease transmission in opioid-dependent populations. Although drug abuse treatment may decrease drug-related risk behaviors such as needle-sharing, additional intervention may be needed to reduce HIV risk behavior. In this investigation, we assessed sexual HIV risk behaviors in opioid-dependent patients who were engaging in regular drug use despite ongoing counseling and methadone maintenance therapy. Potential risk and protective factors for engaging in sexual HIV risk behavior were examined. Taking into account demographic, psychiatric, substance use, and psychological variables, the only significant predictor of risk behavior was age. Specifically, younger patients were more likely to engage in sexual HIV risk behavior. The implications of these results for reducing sexual HIV risk behavior and for HIV prevention in methadone-maintained, treatment-refractory opioid-dependent patients are discussed.

  11. Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana open bays. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

    1996-03-22

    The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has a program of research in the environmental aspects of oil and gas extraction. This sampling project will characterize the environmental impacts associated with the discharge of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM), metals and organics in produced water. This report is part of a series of studies of the health and ecological risks from discharges of produced water to the Gulf of Mexico, supported by the USDOE. These assessments are being coordinated with the field study, using the collected data to perform human health and ecological risk assessments. These assessments will provide input to regulators in the development of guidelines and permits, and to industry in the development and use of appropriate discharge practices. The initial human health and ecological risk assessments consist of conservative screening analyses meant to identify potentially important contaminants, and to eliminate others from further consideration. More quantitative assessments were done for contaminants identified, in the screening analysis, as being of potential concern. Section 2 gives an overview of human health and ecological risk assessment to help put the analyses presented here in perspective. Section 3 provides the hazard assessment portion of the risk assessment, and identifies the important receptors and pathways of concern. Section 3 also outlines the approach taken to the risk assessments presented in the rest of the report. The remaining sections (4 through 9) present the human health and ecological risk assessments for discharges of produced water to open bays in Louisiana.

  12. Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: Are We There Yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge

    2015-01-01

    Research on risk assessment and risk management in offenders with intellectual disabilities (OIDs), although far behind compared to the mainstream offender literature, is now expanding. The current review provides an overview of the predictive value of risk assessment and treatment outcome monitoring tools developed for both mainstream forensic…

  13. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing the envi......The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing...... the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...

  14. OPPT workplan risk assessment for antimony trioxide (CASRN ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This assessment will focus on the ecological hazards that may be associated with ATO use in flame retardants. Because ATO’s use in PET plastics was previously evaluated and determined to present minimal concerns for human health and the environment (EU, 2008), this use scenario will not be evaluated here. Human health risks have been evaluated previously and will be summarized in this assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  15. Risk Attitudes, Sample Selection and Attrition in a Longitudinal Field Experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

    with respect to risk attitudes. Our design builds in explicit randomization on the incentives for participation. We show that there are significant sample selection effects on inferences about the extent of risk aversion, but that the effects of subsequent sample attrition are minimal. Ignoring sample...... temporal stability. We evaluate the hypothesis that risk preferences are stable over time using a remarkable data set combining administrative information from the Danish registry with longitudinal experimental data we designed to allow better identification of joint selection and attrition effects...... selection leads to inferences that subjects in the population are more risk averse than they actually are. Correcting for sample selection and attrition affects utility curvature, but does not affect inferences about probability weighting. Properly accounting for sample selection and attrition effects leads...

  16. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...... randomly selected 5000 women living in the region of Southern Denmark aged 40-90 years to receive a mailed questionnaire concerning risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX. The predicted 10-year probability of hip fractures was calculated for each woman returning a complete questionnaire using...... the Swedish version of FRAX. The observed 10-year hip fracture risk was also calculated for each woman using age-specific hip fracture rates from the National Hospital Discharge Register and National survival tables. RESULTS: A total of 4194 (84%) women responded to the questionnaire and 3636 (73%) gave...

  17. Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Monira Hussain

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk.

  18. The Utility of Risk Assessment Instruments for the Prediction of Recidivism in Sexual Homicide Perpetrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andreas; Rettenberger, Martin; Habermann, Niels; Berner, Wolfgang; Eher, Reinhard; Briken, Peer

    2012-01-01

    To examine the predictive accuracy of four well established risk assessment instruments (PCL-R, HCR-20, SVR-20, and Static-99) in an important subgroup of sexual offenders, these instruments were assessed retrospectively based on information from forensic psychiatric court reports in a sample of 90 released male sexual homicide offenders (out of…

  19. Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…

  20. Osteoporosis risk assessment by family practice faculty and residents: a chart review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrager, S; Kausch, T; Bobula, J A

    1999-12-01

    To assess the frequency of osteoporosis risk assessment of postmenopausal women by family practice faculty and residents. Review of 263 charts of women over 50 from 3 residency clinics. Charts were evaluated for evidence of osteoporosis risk assessments or discussion of prevention strategies during the past 2 years. Overall, 35% of the charts contained documentation of some discussion of osteoporosis. Female physicians discussed osteoporosis more than their male colleagues (p osteoporosis discussions decreased as women aged (p osteoporosis discussions with high risk women was low in this sample. Strategies to improve osteoporosis screening are necessary.