WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment modelling

  1. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  2. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  3. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

    2016-08-20

    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) (1/2); Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2(Health effect level)×2(exposure ratio)×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

  4. Soil Erosion Risk Assessment and Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fister, Wolfgang; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.; Heckrath, Goswin

    2013-04-01

    Soil erosion is a phenomenon with relevance for many research topics in the geosciences. Consequently, PhD students with many different backgrounds are exposed to soil erosion related questions during their research. These students require a compact, but detailed introduction to erosion processes, the risks associated with erosion, but also tools to assess and study erosion related questions ranging from a simple risk assessment to effects of climate change on erosion-related effects on geochemistry on various scales. The PhD course on Soil Erosion Risk Assessment and Modelling offered by the University of Aarhus and conducted jointly with the University of Basel is aimed at graduate students with degrees in the geosciences and a PhD research topic with a link to soil erosion. The course offers a unique introduction to erosion processes, conventional risk assessment and field-truthing of results. This is achieved by combing lectures, mapping, erosion experiments, and GIS-based erosion modelling. A particular mark of the course design is the direct link between the results of each part of the course activities. This ensures the achievement of a holistic understanding of erosion in the environment as a key learning outcome.

  5. Simulation modeling for microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassin, M H; Paoli, G M; Lammerding, A M

    1998-11-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment implies an estimation of the probability and impact of adverse health outcomes due to microbial hazards. In the case of food safety, the probability of human illness is a complex function of the variability of many parameters that influence the microbial environment, from the production to the consumption of a food. The analytical integration required to estimate the probability of foodborne illness is intractable in all but the simplest of models. Monte Carlo simulation is an alternative to computing analytical solutions. In some cases, a risk assessment may be commissioned to serve a larger purpose than simply the estimation of risk. A Monte Carlo simulation can provide insights into complex processes that are invaluable, and otherwise unavailable, to those charged with the task of risk management. Using examples from a farm-to-fork model of the fate of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers, this paper describes specifically how such goals as research prioritization, risk-based characterization of control points, and risk-based comparison of intervention strategies can be objectively achieved using Monte Carlo simulation.

  6. Risk Assessment Model for Mobile Malware

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Stanescu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The mobile technology is considered to be the fastest-developing IT security area. Only in the last year security threats around mobile devices have reached new heights in terms of both quality and quantity. The speed of this development has made possible several types of security attacks that, until recently, were only possible on computers. In terms of the most targeted mobile operating systems, Android continues to be the most vulnerable, although new ways of strengthening its security model were introduced by Google. The aim of this article is to provide a model for assessing the risk of mobile infection with malware, starting from a statistical analysis of the permissions required by each application installed into the mobile system. The software implementation of this model will use the Android operating system and in order to do so, we will start by analyzing its permission-based security architecture. Furthermore, based on statistical data regarding the most dangerous permissions, we build the risk assessment model and, to prove its efficiency, we scan some of the most popular apps and interpret the results. To this end, we offer an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of this permission-based model and we also state a short conclusion regarding model’s efficiency.

  7. Flood risk assessment: concepts, modelling, applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Tsakiris

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Natural hazards have caused severe consequences to the natural, modified and human systems, in the past. These consequences seem to increase with time due to both higher intensity of the natural phenomena and higher value of elements at risk. Among the water related hazards flood hazards have the most destructive impacts. The paper presents a new systemic paradigm for the assessment of flood hazard and flood risk in the riverine flood prone areas. Special emphasis is given to the urban areas with mild terrain and complicated topography, in which 2-D fully dynamic flood modelling is proposed. Further the EU flood directive is critically reviewed and examples of its implementation are presented. Some critical points in the flood directive implementation are also highlighted.

  8. Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM: Groundwater Risk Assessment Model for Wellfield Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nara Somaratne

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A groundwater risk assessment was carried out for 30 potable water supply systems under a framework of protecting drinking water quality across South Australia. A semi-quantitative Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM was developed based on a “multi-barrier” approach using likelihood of release, contaminant pathway and consequence equation. Groundwater vulnerability and well integrity have been incorporated to the pathway component of the risk equation. The land use of the study basins varies from protected water reserves to heavily stocked grazing lands. Based on the risk assessment, 15 systems were considered as low risk, four as medium and 11 systems as at high risk. The GRAM risk levels were comparable with indicator bacteria—total coliform—detection. Most high risk systems were the result of poor well construction and casing corrosion rather than the land use. We carried out risk management actions, including changes to well designs and well operational practices, design to increase time of residence and setting the production zone below identified low permeable zones to provide additional barriers to contaminants. The highlight of the risk management element is the well integrity testing using down hole geophysical methods and camera views of the casing condition.

  9. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  10. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  11. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107......). All patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing a structured professional judgment model: the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scheme. After a follow-up period of 5.6 years, recidivism outcome were obtained from the Danish National Crime...... predictive of violent recidivism compared to static items. In sum, the findings support the use of structured professional judgment models of risk assessment and in particular the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. Findings regarding the importance of the (clinical) structured final risk judgment...

  12. Ecological risk assessment conceptual model formulation for nonindigenous species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G

    2004-08-01

    This article addresses the application of ecological risk assessment at the regional scale to the prediction of impacts due to invasive or nonindigenous species (NIS). The first section describes risk assessment, the decision-making process, and introduces regional risk assessment. A general conceptual model for the risk assessment of NIS is then presented based upon the regional risk assessment approach. Two diverse examples of the application of this approach are presented. The first example is based upon the dynamics of introduced plasmids into bacteria populations. The second example is the application risk assessment approach to the invasion of a coastal marine site of Cherry Point, Washington, USA by the European green crab. The lessons learned from the two examples demonstrate that assessment of the risks of invasion of NIS will have to incorporate not only the characteristics of the invasive species, but also the other stresses and impacts affecting the region of interest.

  13. Ozone flux modelling for risk assessment: status and research needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuovinen J-P

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, some shortcomings involved in the modelling of ozone fluxes in the context of local-scale risk assessment are discussed, especially as related to the data collected within the International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests. An enhanced monitoring strategy, that would provide a sounder basis for the development, validation and application of risk assessment modelling tools, is also suggested.

  14. Graphical models and Bayesian domains in risk modelling: application in microbiological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greiner, Matthias; Smid, Joost; Havelaar, Arie H; Müller-Graf, Christine

    2013-05-15

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) models are used to reflect knowledge about complex real-world scenarios for the propagation of microbiological hazards along the feed and food chain. The aim is to provide insight into interdependencies among model parameters, typically with an interest to characterise the effect of risk mitigation measures. A particular requirement is to achieve clarity about the reliability of conclusions from the model in the presence of uncertainty. To this end, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation modelling has become a standard in so-called probabilistic risk assessment. In this paper, we elaborate on the application of Bayesian computational statistics in the context of QMRA. It is useful to explore the analogy between MC modelling and Bayesian inference (BI). This pertains in particular to the procedures for deriving prior distributions for model parameters. We illustrate using a simple example that the inability to cope with feedback among model parameters is a major limitation of MC modelling. However, BI models can be easily integrated into MC modelling to overcome this limitation. We refer a BI submodel integrated into a MC model to as a "Bayes domain". We also demonstrate that an entire QMRA model can be formulated as Bayesian graphical model (BGM) and discuss the advantages of this approach. Finally, we show example graphs of MC, BI and BGM models, highlighting the similarities among the three approaches.

  15. Sensitivity of Coastal Flood Risk Assessments to Digital Elevation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bas van de Sande

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Most coastal flood risk studies make use of a Digital Elevation Model (DEM in addition to a projected flood water level in order to estimate the flood inundation and associated damages to property and livelihoods. The resolution and accuracy of a DEM are critical in a flood risk assessment, as land elevation largely determines whether a location will be flooded or will remain dry during a flood event. Especially in low lying deltaic areas, the land elevation variation is usually in the order of only a few decimeters, and an offset of various decimeters in the elevation data has a significant impact on the accuracy of the risk assessment. Publicly available DEMs are often used in studies for coastal flood risk assessments. The accuracy of these datasets is relatively low, in the order of meters, and is especially low in comparison to the level of accuracy required for a flood risk assessment in a deltaic area. For a coastal zone area in Nigeria (Lagos State an accurate LiDAR DEM dataset was adopted as ground truth concerning terrain elevation. In the case study, the LiDAR DEM was compared to various publicly available DEMs. The coastal flood risk assessment using various publicly available DEMs was compared to a flood risk assessment using LiDAR DEMs. It can be concluded that the publicly available DEMs do not meet the accuracy requirement of coastal flood risk assessments, especially in coastal and deltaic areas. For this particular case study, the publically available DEMs highly overestimated the land elevation Z-values and thereby underestimated the coastal flood risk for the Lagos State area. The findings are of interest when selecting data sets for coastal flood risk assessments in low-lying deltaic areas.

  16. Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, J.

    2007-04-01

    An evaluation of the risk to an exposed element from a hazardous event requires a consideration of the element's vulnerability, which expresses its propensity to suffer damage. This concept allows the assessed level of hazard to be translated to an estimated level of risk and is often used to evaluate the risk from earthquakes and cyclones. However, for other natural perils, such as mass movements, coastal erosion and volcanoes, the incorporation of vulnerability within risk assessment is not well established and consequently quantitative risk estimations are not often made. This impedes the study of the relative contributions from different hazards to the overall risk at a site. Physical vulnerability is poorly modelled for many reasons: the cause of human casualties (from the event itself rather than by building damage); lack of observational data on the hazard, the elements at risk and the induced damage; the complexity of the structural damage mechanisms; the temporal and geographical scales; and the ability to modify the hazard level. Many of these causes are related to the nature of the peril therefore for some hazards, such as coastal erosion, the benefits of considering an element's physical vulnerability may be limited. However, for hazards such as volcanoes and mass movements the modelling of vulnerability should be improved by, for example, following the efforts made in earthquake risk assessment. For example, additional observational data on induced building damage and the hazardous event should be routinely collected and correlated and also numerical modelling of building behaviour during a damaging event should be attempted.

  17. A mathematical model for environmental risk assessment in manufacturing industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何莉萍; 徐盛明; 陈大川; 党创寅

    2002-01-01

    Environmental conscious manufacturing has become an important issue in industry because of market pressure and environmental regulations. An environmental risk assessment model was developed based on the network analytic method and fuzzy set theory. The "interval analysis method" was applied to deal with the on-site monitoring data as basic information for assessment. In addition, the fuzzy set theory was employed to allow uncertain, interactive and dynamic information to be effectively incorporated into the environmental risk assessment. This model is a simple, practical and effective tool for evaluating the environmental risk of manufacturing industry and for analyzing the relative impacts of emission wastes, which are hazardous to both human and ecosystem health. Furthermore, the model is considered useful for design engineers and decision-maker to design and select processes when the costs, environmental impacts and performances of a product are taken into consideration.

  18. Model of risk assessment under ballistic statistical tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabrovski, Ivan; Karakaneva, Juliana

    The material presents the application of a mathematical method for risk assessment under statistical determination of the ballistic limits of the protection equipment. The authors have implemented a mathematical model based on Pierson's criteria. The software accomplishment of the model allows to evaluate the V50 indicator and to assess the statistical hypothesis' reliability. The results supply the specialists with information about the interval valuations of the probability determined during the testing process.

  19. Risk Assessment in Fractured Clayey Tills - Which Modeling Tools?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup; Binning, Philip John

    2012-01-01

    assessment is challenging and the inclusion of the relevant processes is difficult. Furthermore the lack of long-term monitoring data prevents from verifying the accuracy of the different conceptual models. Further investigations based on long-term data and numerical modeling are needed to accurately......The article presents different tools available for risk assessment in fractured clayey tills and their advantages and limitations are discussed. Because of the complex processes occurring during contaminant transport through fractured media, the development of simple practical tools for risk...

  20. Dental caries: an updated medical model of risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutsch, V Kim

    2014-04-01

    Dental caries is a transmissible, complex biofilm disease that creates prolonged periods of low pH in the mouth, resulting in a net mineral loss from the teeth. Historically, the disease model for dental caries consisted of mutans streptococci and Lactobacillus species, and the dental profession focused on restoring the lesions/damage from the disease by using a surgical model. The current recommendation is to implement a risk-assessment-based medical model called CAMBRA (caries management by risk assessment) to diagnose and treat dental caries. Unfortunately, many of the suggestions of CAMBRA have been overly complicated and confusing for clinicians. The risk of caries, however, is usually related to just a few common factors, and these factors result in common patterns of disease. This article examines the biofilm model of dental caries, identifies the common disease patterns, and discusses their targeted therapeutic strategies to make CAMBRA more easily adaptable for the privately practicing professional.

  1. A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.

    2009-01-01

    The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

  2. Sensitivity of Coastal Flood Risk Assessments to Digital Elevation Models

    OpenAIRE

    Bas van de Sande; Claartje Hoyng; Joost Lansen

    2012-01-01

    Most coastal flood risk studies make use of a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in addition to a projected flood water level in order to estimate the flood inundation and associated damages to property and livelihoods. The resolution and accuracy of a DEM are critical in a flood risk assessment, as land elevation largely determines whether a location will be flooded or will remain dry during a flood event. Especially in low lying deltaic areas, the land elevation variation is usually in the order...

  3. A new model for polluted soil risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andretta, M.; Serra, R.; Villani, M.

    2006-08-01

    In this paper, we discuss the most important theoretical aspects of polluted soil Risk Assessment Methodologies, which have been developed in order to evaluate the risk, for the exposed people, connected with the residual contaminant concentration in polluted soil, and we make a short presentation of the major different kinds of risk assessment methodologies. We also underline the relevant role played, in this kind of analysis, by the pollutant transport models. We also describe a new and innovative model, based on the general framework of the so-called Cellular Automata (CA), initially developed in the UE-Esprit Project COLOMBO for the simulation of bioremediation processes. These kinds of models, for their intrinsic "finite and discrete" characteristics, seem to be very well suited for a detailed analysis of the shape of the pollutant sources, the contaminant fates and the evaluation of target in the risk assessment evaluation. In particular, we will describe the future research activities we are going to develop in the area of a strict integration between pollutant fate and transport models and Risk Analysis Methodologies.

  4. Modeling Logistic Performance in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijgersberg, H.; Tromp, S.O.; Jacxsens, L.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage ti

  5. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2006-01-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of ne

  6. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2006-01-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of

  7. Quantitative risk assessment modeling for nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Qu, Xiaobo; Wang, Xinchang; Yuanita, Vivi; Wong, Siew Chee

    2011-03-01

    Urban road tunnels provide an increasingly cost-effective engineering solution, especially in compact cities like Singapore. For some urban road tunnels, tunnel characteristics such as tunnel configurations, geometries, provisions of tunnel electrical and mechanical systems, traffic volumes, etc. may vary from one section to another. These urban road tunnels that have characterized nonuniform parameters are referred to as nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels. In this study, a novel quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model is proposed for nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels because the existing QRA models for road tunnels are inapplicable to assess the risks in these road tunnels. This model uses a tunnel segmentation principle whereby a nonhomogeneous urban road tunnel is divided into various homogenous sections. Individual risk for road tunnel sections as well as the integrated risk indices for the entire road tunnel is defined. The article then proceeds to develop a new QRA model for each of the homogeneous sections. Compared to the existing QRA models for road tunnels, this section-based model incorporates one additional top event-toxic gases due to traffic congestion-and employs the Poisson regression method to estimate the vehicle accident frequencies of tunnel sections. This article further illustrates an aggregated QRA model for nonhomogeneous urban tunnels by integrating the section-based QRA models. Finally, a case study in Singapore is carried out.

  8. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, E.A., E-mail: elizabeth.masden@uhi.ac.uk [Environmental Research Institute, North Highland College-UHI, University of the Highlands and Islands, Ormlie Road, Thurso, Caithness KW14 7EE (United Kingdom); Cook, A.S.C.P. [British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU (United Kingdom)

    2016-01-15

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  9. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application

  10. RISK ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES IN COSO INTERNAL CONTROL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan TÜREDİ

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The companies pursue their goals and operate their activities in an environment full of risks and uncertainties. One of the major principles in accounting is that the companies to continue indefinitely, which is called “the going concern assumption”. Any company, surrounded by many risks must adapt to the rapidly changing conditions of the business environment, realize and manage those risks and build some core competencies to continue as a going concern. COSO internal control, having practical application tools for companies is one of the generally accepted frameworks that aims enabling the companies to build, manage and develop an internal control structure as a tool to reach sustainable success. One of the five COSO components is “risk assessment” covering the recognition and assessment of the potential risks that the company faces and manage those risk considering their materiality. This study aims to explain the COSO internal control model with its five components as well as stressing the assessment of risks component supported by some examples.

  11. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  12. Probabilistic Modeling and Risk Assessment of Cable Icing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roldsgaard, Joan Hee

    assessments together with the Bayesian pre-posterior decision analysis and builds upon the quantification of Value of Information (VoI). The consequences are evaluated for different outputs of the probabilistic model to provide a basis for prioritizing risk management decision alternatives. Each step...... the bridge cables, which can cause socioeconomically expensive closures of bridges and traffic disruptions. The objective is to develop a simple model that can be used to assess the occurrence probability of ice accretion on bridge cables from readily available meteorological variables. This model is used....... The damage assessment is performed using a probabilistic approach, based on a Bayesian Probabilistic Network, where the wind environment, traffic loading, bridge specific parameters and the mechanisms that induce significant cable vibrations are the main input parameters. It is outlined how information...

  13. Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2011-01-01

    Current measures used to estimate the risks of toxic chemicals are not relevant to the goals of the environmental protection process, and thus ecological risk assessment (ERA) is not used as extensively as it should be as a basis for cost-effective management of environmental resources. Appropriate...... population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...... what we measure and what we want to protect. We then describe six actions needed for its implementation into management-relevant ERA....

  14. Supply Chain Modeling: Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-05

    Supply Chain Modeling: Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM) Dr. Sean Barnett December 5, 2013 Institute for Defense Analyses Alexandria, Virginia DMSMS Conference 2013 These Slides are Unclassified and Not Proprietary Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the

  15. Toxicological risk assessment of complex mixtures through the Wtox model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Gerson Matias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models are important tools for environmental management and risk assessment. Predictions about the toxicity of chemical mixtures must be enhanced due to the complexity of eects that can be caused to the living species. In this work, the environmental risk was accessed addressing the need to study the relationship between the organism and xenobiotics. Therefore, ve toxicological endpoints were applied through the WTox Model, and with this methodology we obtained the risk classication of potentially toxic substances. Acute and chronic toxicity, citotoxicity and genotoxicity were observed in the organisms Daphnia magna, Vibrio scheri and Oreochromis niloticus. A case study was conducted with solid wastes from textile, metal-mechanic and pulp and paper industries. The results have shown that several industrial wastes induced mortality, reproductive eects, micronucleus formation and increases in the rate of lipid peroxidation and DNA methylation of the organisms tested. These results, analyzed together through the WTox Model, allowed the classication of the environmental risk of industrial wastes. The evaluation showed that the toxicological environmental risk of the samples analyzed can be classied as signicant or critical.

  16. Tackling Biocomplexity with Meta-models for Species Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip J. Nyhus

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available We describe results of a multi-year effort to strengthen consideration of the human dimension into endangered species risk assessments and to strengthen research capacity to understand biodiversity risk assessment in the context of coupled human-natural systems. A core group of social and biological scientists have worked with a network of more than 50 individuals from four countries to develop a conceptual framework illustrating how human-mediated processes influence biological systems and to develop tools to gather, translate, and incorporate these data into existing simulation models. A central theme of our research focused on (1 the difficulties often encountered in identifying and securing diverse bodies of expertise and information that is necessary to adequately address complex species conservation issues; and (2 the development of quantitative simulation modeling tools that could explicitly link these datasets as a way to gain deeper insight into these issues. To address these important challenges, we promote a "meta-modeling" approach where computational links are constructed between discipline-specific models already in existence. In this approach, each model can function as a powerful stand-alone program, but interaction between applications is achieved by passing data structures describing the state of the system between programs. As one example of this concept, an integrated meta-model of wildlife disease and population biology is described. A goal of this effort is to improve science-based capabilities for decision making by scientists, natural resource managers, and policy makers addressing environmental problems in general, and focusing on biodiversity risk assessment in particular.

  17. Modeling logistic performance in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijgersberg, Hajo; Tromp, Seth; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage times, temperatures, gas conditions, and their distributions) are determined. However, the logistic chain with its queues (storages, shelves) and mechanisms for ordering products is usually not taken into account. As a consequence, storage times-mutually dependent in successive steps in the chain-cannot be described adequately. This may have a great impact on the tails of risk distributions. Because food safety risks are generally very small, it is crucial to model the tails of (underlying) distributions as accurately as possible. Logistic performance can be modeled by describing the underlying planning and scheduling mechanisms in discrete-event modeling. This is common practice in operations research, specifically in supply chain management. In this article, we present the application of discrete-event modeling in the context of a QMRA for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh-cut iceberg lettuce. We show the potential value of discrete-event modeling in QMRA by calculating logistic interventions (modifications in the logistic chain) and determining their significance with respect to food safety.

  18. USING COPULAS TO MODEL DEPENDENCE IN SIMULATION RISK ASSESSMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dana L. Kelly

    2007-11-01

    Typical engineering systems in applications with high failure consequences such as nuclear reactor plants often employ redundancy and diversity of equipment in an effort to lower the probability of failure and therefore risk. However, it has long been recognized that dependencies exist in these redundant and diverse systems. Some dependencies, such as common sources of electrical power, are typically captured in the logic structure of the risk model. Others, usually referred to as intercomponent dependencies, are treated implicitly by introducing one or more statistical parameters into the model. Such common-cause failure models have limitations in a simulation environment. In addition, substantial subjectivity is associated with parameter estimation for these models. This paper describes an approach in which system performance is simulated by drawing samples from the joint distributions of dependent variables. The approach relies on the notion of a copula distribution, a notion which has been employed by the actuarial community for ten years or more, but which has seen only limited application in technological risk assessment. The paper also illustrates how equipment failure data can be used in a Bayesian framework to estimate the parameter values in the copula model. This approach avoids much of the subjectivity required to estimate parameters in traditional common-cause failure models. Simulation examples are presented for failures in time. The open-source software package R is used to perform the simulations. The open-source software package WinBUGS is used to perform the Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.

  19. Risk Assessment For Spreadsheet Developments: Choosing Which Models to Audit

    CERN Document Server

    Butler, Raymond J

    2008-01-01

    Errors in spreadsheet applications and models are alarmingly common (some authorities, with justification cite spreadsheets containing errors as the norm rather than the exception). Faced with this body of evidence, the auditor can be faced with a huge task - the temptation may be to launch code inspections for every spreadsheet in an organisation. This can be very expensive and time-consuming. This paper describes risk assessment based on the "SpACE" audit methodology used by H M Customs & Excise's tax inspectors. This allows the auditor to target resources on the spreadsheets posing the highest risk of error, and justify the deployment of those resources to managers and clients. Since the opposite of audit risk is audit assurance the paper also offers an overview of some elements of good practice in the use of spreadsheets in business.

  20. Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

    2016-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

  1. Risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1986-03-01

    The article deals with the calculation of risks, as applied to living near to a) a nuclear reactor or b) an industrial complex. The application of risk assessment techniques to the pressurised water reactor (PWR) is discussed with respect to: containment, frequencies of degraded core accidents, release of radioisotopes, consequences and risk to society, and uncertainties. The risk assessment for an industrial complex concerns the work of the Safety and Reliability Directorate for the chemical complex on Canvey Island. (U.K.).

  2. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  3. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  4. Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. P. Daanen

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP, defined as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland, in agreement with present observations. We provide examples of application of the risk zone assessment approach for the two towns of Sisimiut and Ilulissat, both classified with high PTP.

  5. GERMcode: A Stochastic Model for Space Radiation Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2012-01-01

    A new computer model, the GCR Event-based Risk Model code (GERMcode), was developed to describe biophysical events from high-energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) particles that have been studied at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) for the purpose of simulating space radiation biological effects. In the GERMcode, the biophysical description of the passage of HZE particles in tissue and shielding materials is made with a stochastic approach that includes both particle track structure and nuclear interactions. The GERMcode accounts for the major nuclear interaction processes of importance for describing heavy ion beams, including nuclear fragmentation, elastic scattering, and knockout-cascade processes by using the quantum multiple scattering fragmentation (QMSFRG) model. The QMSFRG model has been shown to be in excellent agreement with available experimental data for nuclear fragmentation cross sections. For NSRL applications, the GERMcode evaluates a set of biophysical properties, such as the Poisson distribution of particles or delta-ray hits for a given cellular area and particle dose, the radial dose on tissue, and the frequency distribution of energy deposition in a DNA volume. By utilizing the ProE/Fishbowl ray-tracing analysis, the GERMcode will be used as a bi-directional radiation transport model for future spacecraft shielding analysis in support of Mars mission risk assessments. Recent radiobiological experiments suggest the need for new approaches to risk assessment that include time-dependent biological events due to the signaling times for activation and relaxation of biological processes in cells and tissue. Thus, the tracking of the temporal and spatial distribution of events in tissue is a major goal of the GERMcode in support of the simulation of biological processes important in GCR risk assessments. In order to validate our approach, basic radiobiological responses such as cell survival curves, mutation, chromosomal

  6. Permafrost Degradation Risk Zone Assessment using Simulation Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daanen, R.P.; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas; Marchenko, S.;

    2011-01-01

    In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures...... to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined...... as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland...

  7. Assessing Sustainability of Land Management Using a Risk Identification Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    New Zealand is highly dependent on its soil resource for continued agricultural production. To avoiddepleting this resource, there is a need to identify soils and associated land management practices wherethere is a risk of soil degradation. Environmental integrity and ecosystem services also need to be maintained.Accordingly, to ensure sustainable production, the on- and off-site environmental impacts of land managementneed to be identified and managed. We developed a structural vulnerability index for New Zealand soils. Thisindex ranks soils according to their inherent susceptibility to physical degradation when used for agricultural(pasture, forestry and cropping) purposes. We also developed a rule-based model to assess soil compactionvulnerability by characterising the combined effects of resistance and resilience. Other soil attributes havebeen appraised using seven chemical, physical and biological indicators of soil quality. These indicators havebeen applied in a nation-wide project involving data collection from over 500 sites for a range of land uses.These soil quality data can be interpreted via the World Wide Web - through the interactive decision-support tool SINDI. The land-use impact model is a framework to assess agricultural land management andenvironmental sustainability, and may be applied to land units at any scale. Using land resource data andinformation the model explicitly identifies hazards to land productivity and environmental integrity. It utilisesqualitative expert and local knowledge and quantitative model-based evaluations to assess the potentialenvironmental impacts of land-management practices. The model is linked to a geographic informationsystem (GIS), allowing model outputs, such as the environmental impacts of site-specific best managementpractices, to be identified in a spatially explicit manner. The model has been tested in New Zealand in anarea of pastoral land use. Advantages of this risk identification model include

  8. Documentation of the Ecological Risk Assessment Computer Model ECORSK.5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anthony F. Gallegos; Gilbert J. Gonzales

    1999-06-01

    The FORTRAN77 ecological risk computer model--ECORSK.5--has been used to estimate the potential toxicity of surficial deposits of radioactive and non-radioactive contaminants to several threatened and endangered (T and E) species at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses to date include preliminary toxicity estimates for the Mexican spotted owl, the American peregrine falcon, the bald eagle, and the southwestern willow flycatcher. This work has been performed as required for the Record of Decision for the construction of the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) Facility at LANL as part of the Environmental Impact Statement. The model is dependent on the use of the geographic information system and associated software--ARC/INFO--and has been used in conjunction with LANL's Facility for Information Management and Display (FIMAD) contaminant database. The integration of FIMAD data and ARC/INFO using ECORSK.5 allows the generation of spatial information from a gridded area of potential exposure called an Ecological Exposure Unit. ECORSK.5 was used to simulate exposures using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient Method. The model can handle a large number of contaminants within the home range of T and E species. This integration results in the production of hazard indices which, when compared to risk evaluation criteria, estimate the potential for impact from consumption of contaminants in food and ingestion of soil. The assessment is considered a Tier-2 type of analysis. This report summarizes and documents the ECORSK.5 code, the mathematical models used in the development of ECORSK.5, and the input and other requirements for its operation. Other auxiliary FORTRAN 77 codes used for processing and graphing output from ECORSK.5 are also discussed. The reader may refer to reports cited in the introduction to obtain greater detail on past applications of ECORSK.5 and assumptions used in deriving model parameters.

  9. Assessment model of dam operation risk based on monitoring data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Although the dams produce remarkable social and economic benefits,the threat made by unsafe dams to the life and property of people who live in the lower river area is un-negligible.Based on the monitoring data which reflect the safety condition of dams,the risk degree concept is proposed and the analysis system and model for evaluating risk degree (rate) are established in this paper by combining the reliability theory and field monitoring data.The analysis method for risk degree is presented based on Bayesian approach.A five-grade risk degree system for dam operation risk and corresponding risk degree is put forward according to the safety condition of dams.The operation risks of four cascade dams on some river are analyzed by the model and approach presented here and the result is adopted by the owner.

  10. Modeling for regulatory purposes (risk and safety assessment).

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Masri, Hisham

    2013-01-01

    Chemicals provide many key building blocks that are converted into end-use products or used in industrial processes to make products that benefit society. Ensuring the safety of chemicals and their associated products is a key regulatory mission. Current processes and procedures for evaluating and assessing the impact of chemicals on human health, wildlife, and the environment were, in general, designed decades ago. These procedures depend on generation of relevant scientific knowledge in the laboratory and interpretation of this knowledge to refine our understanding of the related potential health risks. In practice, this often means that estimates of dose-response and time-course behaviors for apical toxic effects are needed as a function of relevant levels of exposure. In many situations, these experimentally determined functions are constructed using relatively high doses in experimental animals. In absence of experimental data, the application of computational modeling is necessary to extrapolate risk or safety guidance values for human exposures at low but environmentally relevant levels.

  11. Modeling data quality for risk assessment of GIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to determine three data quality (DQ) risk characteristics: accuracy, comprehensiveness and nonmembership. The methodology provides a set of quantitative models to confirm the information quality risks for the database of the geographical information system (GIS). Four quantitative measures are introduced to examine how the quality risks of source information affect the quality of information outputs produced using the relational algebra operations Selection, Projection, and...

  12. Application of the Beck model to stock markets: Value-at-Risk and portfolio risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozaki, M.; Sato, A.-H.

    2008-02-01

    We apply the Beck model, developed for turbulent systems that exhibit scaling properties, to stock markets. Our study reveals that the Beck model elucidates the properties of stock market returns and is applicable to practical use such as the Value-at-Risk estimation and the portfolio analysis. We perform empirical analysis with daily/intraday data of the S&P500 index return and find that the volatility fluctuation of real markets is well-consistent with the assumptions of the Beck model: The volatility fluctuates at a much larger time scale than the return itself and the inverse of variance, or “inverse temperature”, β obeys Γ-distribution. As predicted by the Beck model, the distribution of returns is well-fitted by q-Gaussian distribution of Tsallis statistics. The evaluation method of Value-at-Risk (VaR), one of the most significant indicators in risk management, is studied for q-Gaussian distribution. Our proposed method enables the VaR evaluation in consideration of tail risk, which is underestimated by the variance-covariance method. A framework of portfolio risk assessment under the existence of tail risk is considered. We propose a multi-asset model with a single volatility fluctuation shared by all assets, named the single β model, and empirically examine the agreement between the model and an imaginary portfolio with Dow Jones indices. It turns out that the single β model gives good approximation to portfolios composed of the assets with non-Gaussian and correlated returns.

  13. An ensemble model of QSAR tools for regulatory risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradeep, Prachi; Povinelli, Richard J; White, Shannon; Merrill, Stephen J

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative structure activity relationships (QSARs) are theoretical models that relate a quantitative measure of chemical structure to a physical property or a biological effect. QSAR predictions can be used for chemical risk assessment for protection of human and environmental health, which makes them interesting to regulators, especially in the absence of experimental data. For compatibility with regulatory use, QSAR models should be transparent, reproducible and optimized to minimize the number of false negatives. In silico QSAR tools are gaining wide acceptance as a faster alternative to otherwise time-consuming clinical and animal testing methods. However, different QSAR tools often make conflicting predictions for a given chemical and may also vary in their predictive performance across different chemical datasets. In a regulatory context, conflicting predictions raise interpretation, validation and adequacy concerns. To address these concerns, ensemble learning techniques in the machine learning paradigm can be used to integrate predictions from multiple tools. By leveraging various underlying QSAR algorithms and training datasets, the resulting consensus prediction should yield better overall predictive ability. We present a novel ensemble QSAR model using Bayesian classification. The model allows for varying a cut-off parameter that allows for a selection in the desirable trade-off between model sensitivity and specificity. The predictive performance of the ensemble model is compared with four in silico tools (Toxtree, Lazar, OECD Toolbox, and Danish QSAR) to predict carcinogenicity for a dataset of air toxins (332 chemicals) and a subset of the gold carcinogenic potency database (480 chemicals). Leave-one-out cross validation results show that the ensemble model achieves the best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity (accuracy: 83.8 % and 80.4 %, and balanced accuracy: 80.6 % and 80.8 %) and highest inter-rater agreement [kappa (κ): 0

  14. Risk assessment and food allergy: the probabilistic model applied to allergens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spanjersberg, M.Q.I.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Rennen, M.A.J.; Houben, G.F.

    2007-01-01

    In order to assess the risk of unintended exposure to food allergens, traditional deterministic risk assessment is usually applied, leading to inconsequential conclusions as 'an allergic reaction cannot be excluded'. TNO therefore developed a quantitative risk assessment model for allergens based on

  15. Risk assessment and food allergy: the probabilistic model applied to allergens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spanjersberg, M.Q.I.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Rennen, M.A.J.; Houben, G.F.

    2007-01-01

    In order to assess the risk of unintended exposure to food allergens, traditional deterministic risk assessment is usually applied, leading to inconsequential conclusions as 'an allergic reaction cannot be excluded'. TNO therefore developed a quantitative risk assessment model for allergens based on

  16. Plenary lecture: innovative modeling approaches applicable to risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proper identification of safe and unsafe food at the processing plant is important for maximizing the public health benefit of food by ensuring both its consumption and safety. Risk assessment is a holistic approach to food safety that consists of four steps: 1) hazard identification; 2) exposure a...

  17. Model-based benefit-risk assessment: can Archimedes help?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna, R

    2009-03-01

    In December 2008, the US Food and Drug Administration issued a new draft Guidance for Industry on Diabetes Mellitus--evaluating cardiovascular risk in new antidiabetic therapies to treat Type 2 diabetes. This guidance comes at a time when recent discussions have focused on delineation of cardiovascular risk reduction for new antidiabetic drugs. Computational tools that can enable early prediction of cardiovascular risk are reviewed with specific reference to Archimedes (Kaiser Permanente), with an aim of proposing a model-based solution and enabling decisions to be made as early as possible in the drug development value chain.

  18. TSUNAMI RISK ASSESSMENT MODELLING IN CHABAHAR PORT, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Delavar

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The well-known historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ region was generated by the earthquake of November 28, 1945 in Makran Coast in the North of Oman Sea. This destructive tsunami killed over 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan and India, caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran and Oman. According to the report of "Remembering the 1945 Makran Tsunami", compiled by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO/IOC, the maximum inundation of Chabahar port was 367 m toward the dry land, which had a height of 3.6 meters from the sea level. In addition, the maximum amount of inundation at Pasni (Pakistan reached to 3 km from the coastline. For the two beaches of Gujarat (India and Oman the maximum run-up height was 3 m from the sea level. In this paper, we first use Makran 1945 seismic parameters to simulate the tsunami in generation, propagation and inundation phases. The effect of tsunami on Chabahar port is simulated using the ComMIT model which is based on the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST. In this process the results are compared with the documented eyewitnesses and some reports from researchers for calibration and validation of the result. Next we have used the model to perform risk assessment for Chabahar port in the south of Iran with the worst case scenario of the tsunami. The simulated results showed that the tsunami waves will reach Chabahar coastline 11 minutes after generation and 9 minutes later, over 9.4 Km2 of the dry land will be flooded with maximum wave amplitude reaching up to 30 meters.

  19. Offshore risk assessment principles, modelling and applications of QRA studies

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2007-01-01

    attempt has been made to capture the new trends in the regulations, to the extent they are known. There have over the last 10-15 years been published a few textbooks on risk assessment, most of them are devoted to relatively generic topics. Some are also focused on the risk management aspects, in general and with offshore applicability. None are known to address the needs and topics of the use of QRA studies by the offshore industry in particular. The present work is trying to bridge this gap. The use of QRA studies is somewhat special in Northern Europe, and par- cularly in Norway. The use of

  20. Conceptual geoinformation model of natural hazards risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulygin, Valerii

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are the major threat to safe interactions between nature and society. The assessment of the natural hazards impacts and their consequences is important in spatial planning and resource management. Today there is a challenge to advance our understanding of how socio-economical and climate changes will affect the frequency and magnitude of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks. However, the impacts from different types of natural hazards on various marine and coastal economic activities are not of the same type. In this study, the conceptual geomodel of risk assessment is presented to highlight the differentiation by the type of economic activities in extreme events risk assessment. The marine and coastal ecosystems are considered as the objects of management, on the one hand, and as the place of natural hazards' origin, on the other hand. One of the key elements in describing of such systems is the spatial characterization of their components. Assessment of ecosystem state is based on ecosystem indicators (indexes). They are used to identify the changes in time. The scenario approach is utilized to account for the spatio-temporal dynamics and uncertainty factors. Two types of scenarios are considered: scenarios of using ecosystem services by economic activities and scenarios of extreme events and related hazards. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No. 16-35-60043 mol_a_dk.

  1. Pipeline risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kariyawasam, S. [TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Weir, D. [Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)] (comps.)

    2009-07-01

    Risk assessments and risk analysis are system-wide activities that include site-specific risk and reliability-based decision-making, implementation, and monitoring. This working group discussed the risk management process in the pipeline industry, including reliability-based integrity management and risk control processes. Attendants at the group discussed reliability-based decision support and performance measurements designed to support corporate risk management policies. New developments and technologies designed to optimize risk management procedures were also presented. The group was divided into 3 sessions: (1) current practice, strengths and limitations of system-wide risk assessments for facility assets; (2) accounting for uncertainties to assure safety; and (3) reliability based excavation repair criteria and removing potentially unsafe corrosion defects. Presentations of risk assessment procedures used at various companies were given. The role of regulators, best practices, and effective networking environments in ensuring the success of risk assessment policies was discussed. Risk assessment models were also reviewed.

  2. Risk assessment models for cancer-associated venous thromboembolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutia, Mrinal; White, Richard H; Wun, Ted

    2012-07-15

    Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is common in cancer patients, and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Several factors, including procoagulant agents secreted by tumor cells, immobilization, surgery, indwelling catheters, and systemic treatment (including chemotherapy), contribute to an increased risk of VTE in cancer patients. There is growing interest in instituting primary prophylaxis in high-risk patients to prevent incident (first-time) VTE events. The identification of patients at sufficiently high risk of VTE to warrant primary thromboprophylaxis is essential, as anticoagulation may be associated with a higher risk of bleeding. Current guidelines recommend the use of pharmacological thromboprophylaxis in postoperative and hospitalized cancer patients, as well as ambulatory cancer patients receiving thalidomide or lenalidomide in combination with high-dose dexamethasone or chemotherapy, in the absence of contraindications to anticoagulation. However, the majority of cancer patients are ambulatory, and currently primary thromboprophylaxis is not recommended for these patients, even those considered at very high risk. In this concise review, the authors discuss risk stratification models that have been specifically developed to identify cancer patients at high risk for VTE, and thus might be useful in future studies designed to determine the potential benefit of primary thromboprophylaxis.

  3. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that p

  4. Recurrence models of volcanic events: Applications to volcanic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowe, B.M. [Los Alamos National Lab., Las Vegas, NV (United States); Picard, R.; Valentine, G. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Perry, F.V. [New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1992-03-01

    An assessment of the risk of future volcanism has been conducted for isolation of high-level radioactive waste at the potential Yucca Mountain site in southern Nevada. Risk used in this context refers to a combined assessment of the probability and consequences of future volcanic activity. Past studies established bounds on the probability of magmatic disruption of a repository. These bounds were revised as additional data were gathered from site characterization studies. The probability of direct intersection of a potential repository located in an eight km{sup 2} area of Yucca Mountain by ascending basalt magma was bounded by the range of 10{sup {minus}8} to 10{sup {minus}10} yr{sup {minus}1 2}. The consequences of magmatic disruption of a repository were estimated in previous studies to be limited. The exact releases from such an event are dependent on the strike of an intruding basalt dike relative to the repository geometry, the timing of the basaltic event relative to the age of the radioactive waste and the mechanisms of release and dispersal of the waste radionuclides in the accessible environment. The combined low probability of repository disruption and the limited releases associated with this event established the basis for the judgement that the risk of future volcanism was relatively low. It was reasoned that that risk of future volcanism was not likely to result in disqualification of the potential Yucca Mountain site.

  5. The Terrestrial Investigation Model: A probabilistic risk assessment model for birds exposed to pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    One of the major recommendations of the National Academy of Science to the USEPA, NMFS and USFWS was to utilize probabilistic methods when assessing the risks of pesticides to federally listed endangered and threatened species. The Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM, version 3....

  6. A Hybrid Support Vector Machines and Two-dimensional Risk Matrix Model for Supply Chain Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Fan Jiang; Junfei Chen

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the supply chain managements have been paid more and more attention. The supply chain risk management is an important content for enterprises implementing supply chain management. Therefore, how to measure the risk of supply chain is quite important. In this study, a supply chain risk evaluation model based on support vector machines and two-dimensional risk matrix is proposed. The index system of supply chain risk assessment which includes 14 indices is established. The case...

  7. How to Decide on Modeling Details: Risk and Benefit Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özilgen, Mustafa

    2017-01-01

    Mathematical models based on thermodynamic, kinetic, heat, and mass transfer analysis are central to this chapter. Microbial growth, death, enzyme inactivation models, and the modeling of material properties, including those pertinent to conduction and convection heating, mass transfer, such as diffusion and convective mass transfer, and thermodynamic properties, such as specific heat, enthalpy, and Gibbs free energy of formation and specific chemical exergy are also needed in this task. The origins, simplifying assumptions, and uses of model equations are discussed in this chapter, together with their benefits. The simplified forms of these models are sometimes referred to as "laws," such as "the first law of thermodynamics" or "Fick's second law." Starting to modeling a study with such "laws" without considering the conditions under which they are valid runs the risk of ending up with erronous conclusions. On the other hand, models started with fundamental concepts and simplified with appropriate considerations may offer explanations for the phenomena which may not be obtained just with measurements or unprocessed experimental data. The discussion presented here is strengthened with case studies and references to the literature.

  8. Organism and population-level ecological models for chemical risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological risk assessment typically focuses on animal populations as endpoints for regulatory ecotoxicology. Scientists at USEPA are developing models for animal populations exposed to a wide range of chemicals from pesticides to emerging contaminants. Modeled taxa include aquat...

  9. Organism and population-level ecological models for chemical risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological risk assessment typically focuses on animal populations as endpoints for regulatory ecotoxicology. Scientists at USEPA are developing models for animal populations exposed to a wide range of chemicals from pesticides to emerging contaminants. Modeled taxa include aquat...

  10. A Hybrid Support Vector Machines and Two-dimensional Risk Matrix Model for Supply Chain Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Jiang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the supply chain managements have been paid more and more attention. The supply chain risk management is an important content for enterprises implementing supply chain management. Therefore, how to measure the risk of supply chain is quite important. In this study, a supply chain risk evaluation model based on support vector machines and two-dimensional risk matrix is proposed. The index system of supply chain risk assessment which includes 14 indices is established. The case study shows that the proposed model is reasonable, effective and it can provide an important reference for supply chain risk management.

  11. A comparison of radiological risk assessment models: Risk assessment models used by the BEIR V Committee, UNSCEAR, ICRP, and EPA (for NESHAP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahl, L.E.

    1994-03-01

    Radiological risk assessments and resulting risk estimates have been developed by numerous national and international organizations, including the National Research Council`s fifth Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR V), the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), and the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). A fourth organization, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), has also performed a risk assessment as a basis for the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP). This paper compares the EPA`s model of risk assessment with the models used by the BEIR V Committee, UNSCEAR, and ICRP. Comparison is made of the values chosen by each organization for several model parameters: populations used in studies and population transfer coefficients, dose-response curves and dose-rate effects, risk projection methods, and risk estimates. This comparison suggests that the EPA has based its risk assessment on outdated information and that the organization should consider adopting the method used by the BEIR V Committee, UNSCEAR, or ICRP.

  12. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  13. Developing a Generic Risk Assessment Simulation Modelling Software Tool for Assessing the Risk of Foot and Mouth Virus Introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tameru, B; Gebremadhin, B; Habtemariam, T; Nganwa, D; Ayanwale, O; Wilson, S; Robnett, V; Wilson, W

    2008-06-01

    Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease that affects all cloven-hoofed animals. Because of its devastating effects on the agricultural industry, many countries take measures to stop the introduction of FMD virus into their countries. Decision makers at multiple levels of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) use Risk Assessments (RAs) (both quantitative and qualitative) to make better and more informed scientifically based decisions to prevent the accidental or intentional introduction of the disease. There is a need for a generic RA that can be applied to any country (whether FMD free or non-FMD free) and for any product (FMD infected animals and animal products). We developed a user-friendly generic RA tool (software) that can be used to conduct and examine different scenarios of quantitative/qualitative risk assessments for the different countries with their varying FMD statuses in relation to reintroduction of FMD virus into the USA. The program was written in Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0 (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington, USA). The @Risk 6.1 Developer Kit (RDK) and @Risk 6.1 Best Fit Kit library (Palisade Corporation, Newfield, NY.USA) was used to build Monte Carlo simulation models. Microsoft Access 2000 (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington, USA) was used and SQL to query the data. Different input probability distributions can be selected for the nodes in the scenario tree and different output for each end-state of the simulation is given in different graphical formats and statistical values are used in describing the likelihood of FMD virus introduction. Sensitivity Analysis in determining which input factor has more effect on the total risk outputs is also given. The developed generic RA tools can be eventually extended and modified to conduct RAs for other animal diseases and animal products.

  14. Consumer product in vitro digestion model: Bioaccessibility of contaminants and its application in risk assessment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandon, Esther F A; Oomen, Agnes G; Rompelberg, Cathy J M; Versantvoort, Carolien H M; Engelen, Jacqueline G M van; Sips, Adrienne J A M

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes the applicability of in vitro digestion models as a tool for consumer products in (ad hoc) risk assessment. In current risk assessment, oral bioavailability from a specific product is considered to be equal to bioavailability found in toxicity studies in which contaminants are u

  15. Toxicokinetic models and related tools in environmental risk assessment of chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grech, Audrey; Brochot, Céline; Dorne, Jean-Lou; Quignot, Nadia; Bois, Frédéric Y; Beaudouin, Rémy

    2017-02-01

    Environmental risk assessment of chemicals for the protection of ecosystems integrity is a key regulatory and scientific research field which is undergoing constant development in modelling approaches and harmonisation with human risk assessment. This review focuses on state-of-the-art toxicokinetic tools and models that have been applied to terrestrial and aquatic species relevant to environmental risk assessment of chemicals. Both empirical and mechanistic toxicokinetic models are discussed using the results of extensive literature searches together with tools and software for their calibration and an overview of applications in environmental risk assessment. These include simple tools such as one-compartment models, multi-compartment models to physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models, mostly available for aquatic species such as fish species and a number of chemical classes including plant protection products, metals, persistent organic pollutants, nanoparticles. Data gaps and further research needs are highlighted.

  16. Spatio-Temporal Risk Assessment Process Modeling for Urban Hazard Events in Sensor Web Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Wang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Immediate risk assessment and analysis are crucial in managing urban hazard events (UHEs. However, it is a challenge to develop an immediate risk assessment process (RAP that can integrate distributed sensors and data to determine the uncertain model parameters of facilities, environments, and populations. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a RAP modeling method within a unified spatio-temporal framework and forms a 10-tuple process information description structure based on a Meta-Object Facility (MOF. A RAP is designed as an abstract RAP chain that collects urban information resources and performs immediate risk assessments. In addition, we propose a prototype system known as Risk Assessment Process Management (RAPM to achieve the functions of RAP modeling, management, execution and visualization. An urban gas leakage event is simulated as an example in which individual risk and social risk are used to illustrate the applicability of the RAP modeling method based on the 10-tuple metadata framework. The experimental results show that the proposed RAP immediately assesses risk by the aggregation of urban sensors, data, and model resources. Moreover, an extension mechanism is introduced in the spatio-temporal RAP modeling method to assess risk and to provide decision-making support for different UHEs.

  17. GIS modeling for canine dirofilariosis risk assessment in central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Mortarino

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A survey was conducted in an area of central Italy in order to study the prevalence of Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens in dogs. Blood samples were collected from 283 dogs and examined using a modified Knott’s technique. In addition, in order to detect D. immitis occult infection, 203 serum samples were also analysed for D. immitis antigen detection. The results were analyzed in order to evaluate the behavioural and attitudinal risk factors. A geographical information system (GIS for the study area was constructed, utilizing the following data layers: administrative boundaries, elevation, temperature, rainfall and humidity. Microfilariae were detected in 32 of the 283 dogs surveyed, constituting a total Dirofilaria prevalence of 11.3%. In particular, 20 dogs (7.1% were positive for D. immitis and 12 dogs (4.2% for D. repens microfilariae. One case of D. immitis occult infection was also detected. Choroplethic municipal maps were drawn within the GIS in order to display the distribution of each Dirofilaria species in the study area. Statistical analysis showed a significant association between Dirofilaria infection and animal attitude (hunting/truffle dogs showed a higher prevalence compared to guard/pet dogs. A higher prevalence was also recorded in 2 to 5-years old dogs. Furthermore a GIS-based modelling of climatic data, collected from 5 meteorological stations in the study area, was performed to estimate the yearly number of D. immitis generations in the mosquito vector. The results of the model as depicted by GIS analysis was highly concordant with the territorial distribution of positive dogs and showed that D. immitis spreading is markedly influenced by season. The potential transmission period in the study area was found to be confined to summer months with a peak in July and August, as expected for a temperate region where summer season is the most favourable period for the parasite.

  18. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and human health effect...

  19. Assessing patient safety risk before the injury occurs: an introduction to sociotechnical probabilistic risk modelling in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, D A; Slonim, A D

    2003-12-01

    Since 1 July 2001 the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO) has required each accredited hospital to conduct at least one proactive risk assessment annually. Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) was recommended as one tool for conducting this task. This paper examines the limitations of FMEA and introduces a second tool used by the aviation and nuclear industries to examine low frequency, high impact events in complex systems. The adapted tool, known as sociotechnical probabilistic risk assessment (ST-PRA), provides an alternative for proactively identifying, prioritizing, and mitigating patient safety risk. The uniqueness of ST-PRA is its ability to model combinations of equipment failures, human error, at risk behavioral norms, and recovery opportunities through the use of fault trees. While ST-PRA is a complex, high end risk modelling tool, it provides an opportunity to visualize system risk in a manner that is not possible through FMEA.

  20. Development of fire simulation models for radiative heat transfer and probabilistic risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hostikka, Simo

    2008-01-01

    An essential part of fire risk assessment is the analysis of fire hazards and fire propagation. In this work, models and tools for two different aspects of numerical fire simulation have been developed. The primary objectives have been firstly to investigate the possibility of exploiting state-of-the-art fire models within probabilistic fire risk assessments and secondly to develop a computationally efficient solver of thermal radiation for the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) code. In the f...

  1. Determinants of Dermal Exposure Relevant for Exposure Modelling in Regulatory Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, J.; Brouwer, D.H.; Gijsbers, J.H.J.; Links, I.H.M.; Warren, N.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment of chemicals requires assessment of the exposure levels of workers. In the absence of adequate specific measured data, models are often used to estimate exposure levels. For dermal exposure only a few models exist, which are not validated externally. In the scope of a large European

  2. The Common Risk Model for Dams: A Portfolio Approach to Security Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    Portfolio Approach to Security Risk Assessments Yev Kirpichevsky Yazmin Seda -Sanabria, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Enrique E. Matheu, U.S...Yev Kirpichevsky Yazmin Seda -Sanabria, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Enrique E. Matheu, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Jason A. Dechant M...adaptive threats across a large portfolio [ Seda -Sanabria et al., 20111]. At the most basic level, risk is estimated for an attack scenario, defined as

  3. Nitrogen Risk Assessment Model for Scotland: II. Hydrological transport and model testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Dunn

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The amount and concentration of N in catchment runoff is strongly controlled by a number of hydrological influences, such as leaching rates and the rate of transport of N from the land to surface water bodies. This paper describes how the principal hydrological controls at a catchment scale have been represented within the Nitrogen Risk Assessment Model for Scotland (NIRAMS; it demonstrates their influence through application of the model to eight Scottish catchments, contrasting in terms of their land use, climate and topography. Calculation of N leaching rates, described in the preceding paper (Dunn et al., 2004, is based on soil water content determined by application of a weekly water balance model. This model uses national scale datasets and has been developed and applied to the whole of Scotland using five years of historical meteorological data. A catchment scale transport model, constructed from a 50m digital elevation model, routes flows of N through the sub-surface and groundwater to the stream system. The results of the simulations carried out for eight different catchments demonstrate that the NIRAMS model is capable of predicting time-series of weekly stream flows and N concentrations, to an acceptable degree of accuracy. The model provides an appropriate framework for risk assessment applications requiring predictions in ungauged catchments and at a national scale. Analysis of the model behaviour shows that streamwater N concentrations are controlled both by the rate of supply of N from leaching as well as the rate of transport of N from the land to the water. Keywords: nitrogen, diffuse pollution, hydrology, model, transport, catchment

  4. [The application of two occupation health risk assessment models in a wooden furniture manufacturing industry].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, A H; Leng, P B; Bian, G L; Li, X H; Mao, G C; Zhang, M B

    2016-10-20

    Objective: To explore the applicability of 2 different models of occupational health risk assessment in wooden furniture manufacturing industry. Methods: American EPA inhalation risk model and ICMM model of occupational health risk assessment were conducted to assess occupational health risk in a small wooden furniture enterprises, respectively. Results: There was poor protective measure and equipment of occupational disease in the plant. The concentration of wood dust in the air of two workshops was over occupational exposure limit (OEL) , and the CTWA was 8.9 mg/m(3) and 3.6 mg/m(3), respectively. According to EPA model, the workers who exposed to benzene in this plant had high risk (9.7×10(-6) ~34.3×10(-6)) of leukemia, and who exposed to formaldehyde had high risk (11.4 × 10(-6)) of squamous cell carcinoma. There were inconsistent evaluation results using the ICMM tools of standard-based matrix and calculated risk rating. There were very high risks to be attacked by rhinocarcinoma of the workers who exposed to wood dust for the tool of calculated risk rating, while high risk for the tool of standard-based matrix. For the workers who exposed to noise, risk of noise-induced deafness was unacceptable and medium risk using two tools, respectively. Conclusion: Both EPA model and ICMM model can appropriately predict and assessthe occupational health risk in wooden furniture manufactory, ICMM due to the relatively simple operation, easy evaluation parameters, assessment of occupational- disease-inductive factors comprehensively, and more suitable for wooden furniture production enterprise.

  5. Modeling uncertainty in risk assessment: an integrated approach with fuzzy set theory and Monte Carlo simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arunraj, N S; Mandal, Saptarshi; Maiti, J

    2013-06-01

    Modeling uncertainty during risk assessment is a vital component for effective decision making. Unfortunately, most of the risk assessment studies suffer from uncertainty analysis. The development of tools and techniques for capturing uncertainty in risk assessment is ongoing and there has been a substantial growth in this respect in health risk assessment. In this study, the cross-disciplinary approaches for uncertainty analyses are identified and a modified approach suitable for industrial safety risk assessment is proposed using fuzzy set theory and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method is applied to a benzene extraction unit (BEU) of a chemical plant. The case study results show that the proposed method provides better measure of uncertainty than the existing methods as unlike traditional risk analysis method this approach takes into account both variability and uncertainty of information into risk calculation, and instead of a single risk value this approach provides interval value of risk values for a given percentile of risk. The implications of these results in terms of risk control and regulatory compliances are also discussed.

  6. Risk Assessment on Drought Disaster in China Based on Integrative Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfei Chen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study promotes cloud model for risk assessment of drought disaster. Cloud model is an effective tool in uncertain transforming between qualitative concepts and their quantitative expressions. Cloud is expressed by a concept with three quantitative characteristics of expectation, entropy and hyper entropy and the mapping between qualitative and quantitative is realized. In this study, considering the fuzziness and uncertainty of drought disaster, we established the comprehensive cloudy model based on entropy weight method for evaluating the risk of drought disaster. The disaster-affected rate and disaster-damaged rate are selected as the evaluation indices of drought degree. The model is applied to assess the drought disaster risk in China. The BP neural network, hard division method and integrative cloud model are compared, and the integrative cloud model is shown better for evaluating drought risk. This study shows that risk assessment of drought disaster based on cloud model is feasible and effective and can provide decision-making for the risk assessment of drought disaster.

  7. Time-varying disaster risk models: An empirical assessment of the Rietz-Barro hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Irarrazabal, Alfonso; Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos

    This paper revisits the fit of disaster risk models where a representative agent has recursive preferences and the probability of a macroeconomic disaster changes over time. We calibrate the model as in Wachter (2013) and perform two sets of tests to assess the empirical performance of the model ...

  8. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewert, F; Rötter, R P; Bindi, M

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess...... climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables....... However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming...

  9. Modelling of deep subsurface for geohazard risk assessment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orlic, B.; Eijs, R. van

    2002-01-01

    Exploitation of subsurface natural resources, and subsurface storage of energy residues, may cause subsurface and surface deformation and damage to property. Deformation is generally difficult to assess and prove, although economical, environmental and societal interests are huge in terms of strain

  10. Modelling of deep subsurface for geohazard risk assessment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orlic, B.; Eijs, R. van

    2002-01-01

    Exploitation of subsurface natural resources, and subsurface storage of energy residues, may cause subsurface and surface deformation and damage to property. Deformation is generally difficult to assess and prove, although economical, environmental and societal interests are huge in terms of strain

  11. Dynamic drought risk assessment using crop model and remote sensing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, H.; Su, Z.; Lv, J.; Li, L.; Wang, Y.

    2017-02-01

    Drought risk assessment is of great significance to reduce the loss of agricultural drought and ensure food security. The normally drought risk assessment method is to evaluate its exposure to the hazard and the vulnerability to extended periods of water shortage for a specific region, which is a static evaluation method. The Dynamic Drought Risk Assessment (DDRA) is to estimate the drought risk according to the crop growth and water stress conditions in real time. In this study, a DDRA method using crop model and remote sensing techniques was proposed. The crop model we employed is DeNitrification and DeComposition (DNDC) model. The drought risk was quantified by the yield losses predicted by the crop model in a scenario-based method. The crop model was re-calibrated to improve the performance by the Leaf Area Index (LAI) retrieved from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. And the in-situ station-based crop model was extended to assess the regional drought risk by integrating crop planted mapping. The crop planted area was extracted with extended CPPI method from MODIS data. This study was implemented and validated on maize crop in Liaoning province, China.

  12. Clonal Expansion (CE) Models in Cancer Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancer arises when cells accumulate sufficient critical mutations. Carcinogens increase the probability of mutation during cell division or promote clonal expansion within stages. Multistage CE models recapitulate this process and provide a framework for incorporating relevant da...

  13. Integrating water quality modeling with ecological risk assessment for nonpoint source pollution control: A conceptual framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Y.D.; McCutcheon, S.C.; Rasmussen, T.C.; Nutter, W.L.; Carsel, R.F.

    1993-01-01

    The historical development of water quality protection goals and strategies in the United States is reviewed. The review leads to the identification and discussion of three components (i.e., management mechanism, environmental investigation approaches, and environmental assessment and criteria) for establishing a management framework for nonpoint source pollution control. Water quality modeling and ecological risk assessment are the two most important and promising approaches to the operation of the proposed management framework. A conceptual framework that shows the general integrative relationships between water quality modeling and ecological risk assessment is presented. (Copyright (c) 1993 IAWQ.)

  14. Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic/Toxicokinetic Modeling in Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-03-01

    thyroid stroma, follicular membrane and lumen after perchlorate (C10 4 ) dosing (Chow and Woodbury, 1970). Electrical potential differences can be...concentration in blood. In addition, some of the chemical will be reabsorbed from bile and result in an increase of parent or metabolite(s) concentration...misleading as it is usually not suggested that there is an actual membrane barrier to the diffusion process. PBPK/PD models These models include a

  15. Risk Assessment of New Chemical Substances. Applicability of EXAMS II as an advanced Water Quality Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Nijs ACM; Burns LA

    1990-01-01

    In the cluster project "Risk Assessment of New Chemical Substances methods are developed to systematically predict and assess the hazards for man and environment. After the basic screening of a substance has been carried out, a more extensive study can be performed using models adhered to the

  16. Risk Assessment of New Chemical Substances. Applicability of EXAMS II as an advanced Water Quality Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Nijs ACM; Burns LA

    1990-01-01

    In the cluster project "Risk Assessment of New Chemical Substances methods are developed to systematically predict and assess the hazards for man and environment. After the basic screening of a substance has been carried out, a more extensive study can be performed using models adhered to the

  17. Developing an index model for flood risk assessment in the western coastal region of Mazandaran, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadeghi-Pouya Alireza

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper represents an index model developed for the assessment of risk caused by river floods. The main purpose of this model is to evaluate the flood risk in the western coastal region of Mazandaran Province/Iran. The model assesses the risk at triple components, i.e. the flood occurrence probability, vulnerability and consequences, through identification and evaluation of effective criteria categorized into seven indexes (environmental, technical, economic, social, depth, population and sensitivity ones that are involved in all stages of flooding (source, pathway and receptor. The flood risk in the developed model is defined by a dimensionless magnitude called as risk score between 0 and 100 for each zone of the area under assessment by calculating and combining of two newly defined factors: occurrence and vulnerability factor and impact factor. The model was applied in a case study, the Nowshahr flood in 2012. The results showed that: (i the flood risk zoning was compared with observed data for aspect of the damages, and general agreement between them was obtained; (ii for urban zones, which surrounded by two rivers, would easily be in critical condition and rescue operations face difficulties; and (iii it is necessary to review the location of the emergency services, according the flood risk zoning.

  18. Body cooling, modelling & risk assessment - Immersion Hypothermia Chapter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tikuisis, P; Daanen, H.A.M.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter describes a model that can be used to predict hypothermia during cold water immersion. Drowning in cold water might precede the onset of hypothermia due to cold shock, injury or incapacitation. As pointed out in Chap. 129, there are three phases of increasing incapacitation leading to l

  19. Body cooling, modelling & risk assessment - Immersion Hypothermia Chapter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tikuisis, P; Daanen, H.A.M.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter describes a model that can be used to predict hypothermia during cold water immersion. Drowning in cold water might precede the onset of hypothermia due to cold shock, injury or incapacitation. As pointed out in Chap. 129, there are three phases of increasing incapacitation leading to

  20. Dynamic building risk assessment theoretic model for rainstorm-flood utilization ABM and ABS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Wenze; Li, Wenbo; Wang, Hailei; Huang, Yingliang; Wu, Xuelian; Sun, Bingyun

    2015-12-01

    Flood is one of natural disasters with the worst loss in the world. It needs to assess flood disaster risk so that we can reduce the loss of flood disaster. Disaster management practical work needs the dynamic risk results of building. Rainstorm flood disaster system is a typical complex system. From the view of complex system theory, flood disaster risk is the interaction result of hazard effect objects, rainstorm flood hazard factors, and hazard environments. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an important tool for complex system modeling. Rainstorm-flood building risk dynamic assessment method (RFBRDAM) was proposed using ABM in this paper. The interior structures and procedures of different agents in proposed meth had been designed. On the Netlogo platform, the proposed method was implemented to assess the building risk changes of the rainstorm flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin using Agent-based simulation (ABS). The results indicated that the proposed method can dynamically assess building risk of the whole process for the rainstorm flood disaster. The results of this paper can provide one new approach for flood disaster building risk dynamic assessment and flood disaster management.

  1. Fuzzy hierarchical model for risk assessment principles, concepts, and practical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chan, Hing Kai

    2013-01-01

    Risk management is often complicated by situational uncertainties and the subjective preferences of decision makers. Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment introduces a fuzzy-based hierarchical approach to solve risk management problems considering both qualitative and quantitative criteria to tackle imprecise information.   This approach is illustrated through number of case studies using examples from the food, fashion and electronics sectors to cover a range of applications including supply chain management, green product design and green initiatives. These practical examples explore how this method can be adapted and fine tuned to fit other industries as well.   Supported by an extensive literature review, Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment  comprehensively introduces a new method for project managers across all industries as well as researchers in risk management.

  2. Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjorn Axel [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: bjorn.axel.gran@hrp.no; Fredriksen, Rune [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: rune.fredriksen@hrp.no; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J. [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: atoosa.p-j.thunem@hrp.no

    2007-11-15

    This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development.

  3. Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Case of Radon and Smoking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan I. Levy

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case example, given its large attributable risk, effect modification due to smoking, and significant variability in radon concentrations and smoking patterns. In spite of this fact, no study to date has estimated geographic and sociodemographic patterns of both radon and smoking in a manner that would allow for inclusion of radon in community-based cumulative risk assessment. In this study, we apply multi-level regression models to explain variability in radon based on housing characteristics and geological variables, and construct a regression model predicting housing characteristics using U.S. Census data. Multi-level regression models of smoking based on predictors common to the housing model allow us to link the exposures. We estimate county-average lifetime lung cancer risks from radon ranging from 0.15 to 1.8 in 100, with high-risk clusters in areas and for subpopulations with high predicted radon and smoking rates. Our findings demonstrate the viability of screening-level assessment to characterize patterns of lung cancer risk from radon, with an approach that can be generalized to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors.

  4. An integrated model-based approach to the risk assessment of pesticide drift from vineyards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pivato, Alberto; Barausse, Alberto; Zecchinato, Francesco; Palmeri, Luca; Raga, Roberto; Lavagnolo, Maria Cristina; Cossu, Raffaello

    2015-06-01

    The inhalation of pesticide in air is of particular concern for people living in close contact with intensive agricultural activities. This study aims to develop an integrated modelling methodology to assess whether pesticides pose a risk to the health of people living near vineyards, and apply this methodology in the world-renowned Prosecco DOCG (Italian label for protection of origin and geographical indication of wines) region. A sample field in Bigolino di Valdobbiadene (North-Eastern Italy) was selected to perform the pesticide fate modellization and the consequent inhalation risk assessment for people living in the area. The modellization accounts for the direct pesticide loss during the treatment of vineyards and for the volatilization from soil after the end of the treatment. A fugacity model was used to assess the volatilization flux from soil. The Gaussian puff air dispersion model CALPUFF was employed to assess the airborne concentration of the emitted pesticide over the simulation domain. The subsequent risk assessment integrates the HArmonised environmental Indicators for pesticide Risk (HAIR) and US-EPA guidelines. In this case study the modelled situation turned to be safe from the point of view of human health in the case of non-carcinogenic compounds, and additional improvements were suggested to further mitigate the effect of the most critical compound.

  5. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

    2016-02-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real

  6. Risk model for estimating the 1-year risk of deferred lesion intervention following deferred revascularization after fractional flow reserve assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depta, Jeremiah P; Patel, Jayendrakumar S; Novak, Eric; Gage, Brian F; Masrani, Shriti K; Raymer, David; Facey, Gabrielle; Patel, Yogesh; Zajarias, Alan; Lasala, John M; Amin, Amit P; Kurz, Howard I; Singh, Jasvindar; Bach, Richard G

    2015-02-21

    Although lesions deferred revascularization following fractional flow reserve (FFR) assessment have a low risk of adverse cardiac events, variability in risk for deferred lesion intervention (DLI) has not been previously evaluated. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to estimate 1-year risk of DLI for coronary lesions where revascularization was not performed following FFR assessment. A prediction model for DLI was developed from a cohort of 721 patients with 882 coronary lesions where revascularization was deferred based on FFR between 10/2002 and 7/2010. Deferred lesion intervention was defined as any revascularization of a lesion previously deferred following FFR. The final DLI model was developed using stepwise Cox regression and validated using bootstrapping techniques. An algorithm was constructed to predict the 1-year risk of DLI. During a mean (±SD) follow-up period of 4.0 ± 2.3 years, 18% of lesions deferred after FFR underwent DLI; the 1-year incidence of DLI was 5.3%, while the predicted risk of DLI varied from 1 to 40%. The final Cox model included the FFR value, age, current or former smoking, history of coronary artery disease (CAD) or prior percutaneous coronary intervention, multi-vessel CAD, and serum creatinine. The c statistic for the DLI prediction model was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.61-0.70). Patients deferred revascularization based on FFR have variation in their risk for DLI. A clinical prediction model consisting of five clinical variables and the FFR value can help predict the risk of DLI in the first year following FFR assessment. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2014. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

    2017-04-01

    Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the

  8. Development of Toxicological Risk Assessment Models for Acute and Chronic Exposure to Pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elke S. Reichwaldt

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Alert level frameworks advise agencies on a sequence of monitoring and management actions, and are implemented so as to reduce the risk of the public coming into contact with hazardous substances. Their effectiveness relies on the detection of the hazard, but with many systems not receiving any regular monitoring, pollution events often go undetected. We developed toxicological risk assessment models for acute and chronic exposure to pollutants that incorporate the probabilities that the public will come into contact with undetected pollution events, to identify the level of risk a system poses in regards to the pollutant. As a proof of concept, we successfully demonstrated that the models could be applied to determine probabilities of acute and chronic illness types related to recreational activities in waterbodies containing cyanotoxins. Using the acute model, we identified lakes that present a ‘high’ risk to develop Day Away From Work illness, and lakes that present a ‘low’ or ‘medium’ risk to develop First Aid Cases when used for swimming. The developed risk models succeeded in categorising lakes according to their risk level to the public in an objective way. Modelling by how much the probability of public exposure has to decrease to lower the risks to acceptable levels will enable authorities to identify suitable control measures and monitoring strategies. We suggest broadening the application of these models to other contaminants.

  9. A Novel Method for Assessing Drug Degradation Product Safety Using Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Models and Stochastic Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hoa Q; Stamatis, Stephen D; Kirsch, Lee E

    2015-09-01

    Patient safety risk due to toxic degradation products is a potentially critical quality issue for a small group of useful drug substances. Although the pharmacokinetics of toxic drug degradation products may impact product safety, these data are frequently unavailable. The objective of this study is to incorporate the prediction capability of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models into a rational drug degradation product risk assessment procedure using a series of model drug degradants (substituted anilines). The PBPK models were parameterized using a combination of experimental and literature data and computational methods. The impact of model parameter uncertainty was incorporated into stochastic risk assessment procedure for estimating human safe exposure levels based on the novel use of a statistical metric called "PROB" for comparing probability that a human toxicity-target tissue exposure exceeds the rat exposure level at a critical no-observed-adverse-effect level. When compared with traditional risk assessment calculations, this novel PBPK approach appeared to provide a rational basis for drug instability risk assessment by focusing on target tissue exposure and leveraging physiological, biochemical, biophysical knowledge of compounds and species.

  10. Modelling bacterial growth in quantitative microbiological risk assessment: is it possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauta, Maarten J

    2002-03-01

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), predictive modelling and HACCP may be used as tools to increase food safety and can be integrated fruitfully for many purposes. However, when QMRA is applied for public health issues like the evaluation of the status of public health, existing predictive models may not be suited to model bacterial growth. In this context, precise quantification of risks is more important than in the context of food manufacturing alone. In this paper, the modular process risk model (MPRM) is briefly introduced as a QMRA modelling framework. This framework can be used to model the transmission of pathogens through any food pathway, by assigning one of six basic processes (modules) to each of the processing steps. Bacterial growth is one of these basic processes. For QMRA, models of bacterial growth need to be expressed in terms of probability, for example to predict the probability that a critical concentration is reached within a certain amount of time. In contrast, available predictive models are developed and validated to produce point estimates of population sizes and therefore do not fit with this requirement. Recent experience from a European risk assessment project is discussed to illustrate some of the problems that may arise when predictive growth models are used in QMRA. It is suggested that a new type of predictive models needs to be developed that incorporates modelling of variability and uncertainty in growth.

  11. Opportunities for improved risk assessments of exotic species in Canada using bioclimatic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenney, Daniel W; Hopkin, Anthony A; Campbell, Kathy L; Mackey, Brendan G; Foottit, Robert

    2003-01-01

    This paper briefly reviews the process of exotic pest risk assessments and presents some examples of emerging opportunities for spatial bioclimatic modeling of exotic species in Canada. This type of analysis can support risk assessments but does not replace the need for on-going high quality field-based observations to validate and update models. Bioclimatic analysis of several exotic pests is provided to illustrate both opportunities and limits. A link is demonstrated to the National Forest Inventory to characterize timber volumes at risk for one exotic species. 'Challenges' are both scientific and administrative. More accessible and current field survey data are required to improve models. Our experience is that for many exotic species, historical, and even current, data are not always digital or quality controlled for taxonomic identity and accurate geo-referencing. This inhibits their use for integrated spatial modeling applications.

  12. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fernandes

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable shoreline risk levels from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS. The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area – Portuguese Continental shelf – with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time. Shoreline risks can be computed in real-time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns, "hot spots" or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real time risk levels can be used in the prioritization of individual ships, geographical areas, strategic tug

  13. Scientific Opinion on good modelling practice in the context of mechanistic effect models for risk assessment of plant protection products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The Panel has interpreted the Terms of Reference as a stepwise analysis of issues relevant to both the development and the evaluation of models to assess ecological effects of pesticides. The regulatory model should be selected or developed to address the relevant specific protection goal. The basis of good modelling practice must be the knowledge of relevant processes and the availability of data of sufficient quality. The opinion identifies several critical steps in order to set models within risk assessment, namely: problem formulation, considering the specific protection goals for the taxa or functional groups of concern; model domain of applicability, which drives the species and scenarios to model; species (and life stage selection, considering relevant life history traits and toxicological/toxicokinetics characteristics of the pesticide; selection of the environmental scenario, which is defined by a combination of abiotic, biotic and agronomic parameters to provide a realistic worst-case situation. Model development should follow the modelling cycle, in which every step has to be fully documented: (i problem definition; (ii model formulation, i.e. design of a conceptual model; (iii model formalisation, in which variables and parameters are linked together into mathematical equations or algorithms; (iv model implementation, in which a computer code is produced and verified; (v model setup, including sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis and comparison with observed data, that delivers the regulatory model; (vi prior to actual use in risk assessment, the regulatory model should be evaluated for relevance to the specific protection goals; (vii feedback from risk assessor with possible recommendations for model improvement. Model evaluation by regulatory authorities should consider each step of the modelling cycle: the opinion identifies points of particular attention for the use of mechanistic effect models in pesticide risk assessment

  14. Development and Application of Oil-Spill Risk Assessment Model for Offshore Pipeline

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LU Yan; WANG Jia; WEI Wenpu; YANG Yong; AN Wei

    2014-01-01

    To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden oil-spill from the offshore pipeline has been raised. In this paper, we proposed an optimized model to analyze the main causes (probability) of spill and the consequence with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. Considering the complicated assessment process for oil-spill, the assessment factor system involving the spill probability and consequence was established based on the operative manual and statistic leakage/damage data of offshore pipeline in order to estimate the integrated spill risk score automatically. The evaluated factors of spill probability could be grouped into five aspects:corrosion, fatigue, national damage, third party, and operational fault;the consequence evaluated factors of spill included hazard of oil and impact-controlling capability. With some modifications based on experts’ opinions, each of the evaluated factors in our work was developed with a relative weight and evaluation criterion. A test example for an offshore pipe-line in the Bohai waters was described to show how the model can be used for an actual case in more detail. By using the oil-spill risk assessment model, it is easy to determine the risk level associated with the ongoing activity and management level and hence to take the risk mitigation action immediately.

  15. Terrestrial population models for ecological risk assessment: A state-of-the-art review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emlen, J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Few attempts have been made to formulate models for predicting impacts of xenobiotic chemicals on wildlife populations. However, considerable effort has been invested in wildlife optimal exploitation models. Because death from intoxication has a similar effect on population dynamics as death by harvesting, these management models are applicable to ecological risk assessment. An underlying Leslie-matrix bookkeeping formulation is widely applicable to vertebrate wildlife populations. Unfortunately, however, the various submodels that track birth, death, and dispersal rates as functions of the physical, chemical, and biotic environment are by their nature almost inevitably highly species- and locale-specific. Short-term prediction of one-time chemical applications requires only information on mortality before and after contamination. In such cases a simple matrix formulation may be adequate for risk assessment. But generally, risk must be projected over periods of a generation or more. This precludes generic protocols for risk assessment and also the ready and inexpensive predictions of a chemical's influence on a given population. When designing and applying models for ecological risk assessment at the population level, the endpoints (output) of concern must be carefully and rigorously defined. The most easily accessible and appropriate endpoints are (1) pseudoextinction (the frequency or probability of a population falling below a prespecified density), and (2) temporal mean population density. Spatial and temporal extent of predicted changes must be clearly specified a priori to avoid apparent contradictions and confusion.

  16. Model Development for Risk Assessment of Driving on Freeway under Rainy Weather Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaonan Cai

    Full Text Available Rainy weather conditions could result in significantly negative impacts on driving on freeways. However, due to lack of enough historical data and monitoring facilities, many regions are not able to establish reliable risk assessment models to identify such impacts. Given the situation, this paper provides an alternative solution where the procedure of risk assessment is developed based on drivers' subjective questionnaire and its performance is validated by using actual crash data. First, an ordered logit model was developed, based on questionnaire data collected from Freeway G15 in China, to estimate the relationship between drivers' perceived risk and factors, including vehicle type, rain intensity, traffic volume, and location. Then, weighted driving risk for different conditions was obtained by the model, and further divided into four levels of early warning (specified by colors using a rank order cluster analysis. After that, a risk matrix was established to determine which warning color should be disseminated to drivers, given a specific condition. Finally, to validate the proposed procedure, actual crash data from Freeway G15 were compared with the safety prediction based on the risk matrix. The results show that the risk matrix obtained in the study is able to predict driving risk consistent with actual safety implications, under rainy weather conditions.

  17. Developing population models: A systematic approach for pesticide risk assessment using herbaceous plants as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Kapo, Katherine E; Rueda-Cediel, Pamela; Thorbek, Pernille; Brain, Richard; Forbes, Valery

    2017-12-01

    Population models are used as tools in species management and conservation and are increasingly recognized as important tools in pesticide risk assessments. A wide variety of population model applications and resources on modeling techniques, evaluation and documentation can be found in the literature. In this paper, we add to these resources by introducing a systematic, transparent approach to developing population models. The decision guide that we propose is intended to help model developers systematically address data availability for their purpose and the steps that need to be taken in any model development. The resulting conceptual model includes the necessary complexity to address the model purpose on the basis of current understanding and available data. We provide specific guidance for the development of population models for herbaceous plant species in pesticide risk assessment and demonstrate the approach with an example of a conceptual model developed following the decision guide for herbicide risk assessment of Mead's milkweed (Asclepias meadii), a species listed as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. The decision guide specific to herbaceous plants demonstrates the details, but the general approach can be adapted for other species groups and management objectives. Population models provide a tool to link population-level dynamics, species and habitat characteristics as well as information about stressors in a single approach. Developing such models in a systematic, transparent way will increase their applicability and credibility, reduce development efforts, and result in models that are readily available for use in species management and risk assessments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. A model standardized risk assessment protocol for use with hazardous waste sites.

    OpenAIRE

    Marsh, G M; Day, R.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a model standardized risk assessment protocol (SRAP) for use with hazardous waste sites. The proposed SRAP focuses on the degree and patterns of evidence that exist for a significant risk to human populations from exposure to a hazardous waste site. The SRAP was designed with at least four specific goals in mind: to organize the available scientific data on a specific site and to highlight important gaps in this knowledge; to facilitate rational, cost-effective decision ma...

  19. Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  20. Regulatory Forum commentary: alternative mouse models for future cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Daniel; Sistare, Frank D; Nambiar, Prashant R; Turner, Oliver C; Radi, Zaher; Bower, Nancy

    2014-07-01

    International regulatory and pharmaceutical industry scientists are discussing revision of the International Conference on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) S1 guidance on rodent carcinogenicity assessment of small molecule pharmaceuticals. A weight-of-evidence approach is proposed to determine the need for rodent carcinogenicity studies. For compounds with high human cancer risk, the product may be labeled appropriately without conducting rodent carcinogenicity studies. For compounds with minimal cancer risk, only a 6-month transgenic mouse study (rasH2 mouse or p53+/- mouse) or a 2-year mouse study would be needed. If rodent carcinogenicity testing may add significant value to cancer risk assessment, a 2-year rat study and either a 6-month transgenic mouse or a 2-year mouse study is appropriate. In many cases, therefore, one rodent carcinogenicity study could be sufficient. The rasH2 model predicts neoplastic findings relevant to human cancer risk assessment as well as 2-year rodent models, produces fewer irrelevant neoplastic outcomes, and often will be preferable to a 2-year rodent study. Before revising ICH S1 guidance, a prospective evaluation will be conducted to test the proposed weight-of-evidence approach. This evaluation offers an opportunity for a secondary analysis comparing the value of alternative mouse models and 2-year rodent studies in the proposed ICH S1 weight-of-evidence approach for human cancer risk assessment.

  1. Risk assessment of oil price from static and dynamic modelling approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mi, Zhi-Fu; Wei, Yi-Ming; Tang, Bao-Jun

    2017-01-01

    The price gap between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil markets has been completely changed in the past several years. The price of WTI was always a little larger than that of Brent for a long time. However, the price of WTI has been surpassed by that of Brent since 2011. The new...... market circumstances and volatility of oil price require a comprehensive reestimation of risk. Therefore, this study aims to explore an integrated approach to assess the price risk in the two crude oil markets through the value at risk (VaR) model. The VaR is estimated by the extreme value theory (EVT......) and GARCH model on the basis of generalized error distribution (GED). The results show that EVT is a powerful approach to capture the risk in the oil markets. On the contrary, the traditional variance–covariance (VC) and Monte Carlo (MC) approaches tend to overestimate risk when the confidence level is 95...

  2. Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

    2015-02-01

    When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise.

  3. Predictive microbiology models vs. modeling microbial growth within Listeria monocytogenes risk assessment: what parameters matter and why.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Lubran, Meryl B

    2011-06-01

    Predictive microbiology models are essential tools to model bacterial growth in quantitative microbial risk assessments. Various predictive microbiology models and sets of parameters are available: it is of interest to understand the consequences of the choice of the growth model on the risk assessment outputs. Thus, an exercise was conducted to explore the impact of the use of several published models to predict Listeria monocytogenes growth during food storage in a product that permits growth. Results underline a gap between the most studied factors in predictive microbiology modeling (lag, growth rate) and the most influential parameters on the estimated risk of listeriosis in this scenario (maximum population density, bacterial competition). The mathematical properties of an exponential dose-response model for Listeria accounts for the fact that the mean number of bacteria per serving and, as a consequence, the highest achievable concentrations in the product under study, has a strong influence on the estimated expected number of listeriosis cases in this context.

  4. Chemical Analysis, Distributed Modelling and Risk Indices. Three Fundamental Pillars in Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilio Benfenati

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The Risk Assessment (RA of pollutants from contaminated sites and landfills is a major environmental issue in Europe, due to the large number of sites and to the importance of groundwater protection. The high number of contaminants and the lack of knowledge of their environmental properties and their ecotoxicological and toxicological characteristics complicate the problem. Furthermore, this information about the chemicals has to be combined with the data relative to the territory and to the targets. We will describe the problems relative to each topic involved in the process, and we will propose an integrated methodology for coping with these problems, using state-of-the-art approaches in each part of the protocol. This methodology has been applied in several real cases.

  5. Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

    2011-01-01

    Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

  6. Evaluating correlative and mechanistic niche models for assessing the risk of pest establishment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological niche modeling was used to assess the risk of establishment of western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran (Diptera: Tephritidae), in sweet cherry, Prunus avium (L.) L., in the commercial cherry-growing areas of California. We integrated species occurrence records and spatial...

  7. Probabilistic modeling of percutaneous absorption for risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug delivery.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ho, Clifford Kuofei

    2004-06-01

    Chemical transport through human skin can play a significant role in human exposure to toxic chemicals in the workplace, as well as to chemical/biological warfare agents in the battlefield. The viability of transdermal drug delivery also relies on chemical transport processes through the skin. Models of percutaneous absorption are needed for risk-based exposure assessments and drug-delivery analyses, but previous mechanistic models have been largely deterministic. A probabilistic, transient, three-phase model of percutaneous absorption of chemicals has been developed to assess the relative importance of uncertain parameters and processes that may be important to risk-based assessments. Penetration routes through the skin that were modeled include the following: (1) intercellular diffusion through the multiphase stratum corneum; (2) aqueous-phase diffusion through sweat ducts; and (3) oil-phase diffusion through hair follicles. Uncertainty distributions were developed for the model parameters, and a Monte Carlo analysis was performed to simulate probability distributions of mass fluxes through each of the routes. Sensitivity analyses using stepwise linear regression were also performed to identify model parameters that were most important to the simulated mass fluxes at different times. This probabilistic analysis of percutaneous absorption (PAPA) method has been developed to improve risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug-delivery analyses, where parameters and processes can be highly uncertain.

  8. Risk assessment and management: a community forensic mental health practice model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Teresa; Simmons, Warren; Gregory, Esther

    2002-12-01

    In Victoria, the Crimes (Mental Impairment and Unfitness to be Tried) Act (1997) reformed legal practice in relation to the detention, management and release of persons found by a court to be not guilty on the grounds of insanity or unfit to be tried. This Act provides a legal structure for such 'forensic patients' to move from secure inpatient facilities into the community. This new legislative landscape has generated challenges for all stakeholders and has provided the impetus for the development of a risk assessment and management model. The key components of the model are the risk profile, assessment and management plan. The discussion comprises theory, legislation, practice implications and limitations of the model. Practice implications concern the provision of objective tools, which identify risk and document strategic interventions to support clinical management. Some of the practice limitations include the model's applicability to risk assessment and management and its dependence on a mercurial multi-service interface in after-hours crisis situations. In addition to this, the paper articulates human limitations implicit in the therapeutic relationship that necessarily underpins the model. The paper concludes with an exploration of the importance of evaluative processes as well as the need for formal support and education for clinicians.

  9. Cancer risk assessment: Optimizing human health through linear dose-response models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J; Shamoun, Dima Yazji; Hanekamp, Jaap C

    2015-07-01

    This paper proposes that generic cancer risk assessments be based on the integration of the Linear Non-Threshold (LNT) and hormetic dose-responses since optimal hormetic beneficial responses are estimated to occur at the dose associated with a 10(-4) risk level based on the use of a LNT model as applied to animal cancer studies. The adoption of the 10(-4) risk estimate provides a theoretical and practical integration of two competing risk assessment models whose predictions cannot be validated in human population studies or with standard chronic animal bioassay data. This model-integration reveals both substantial protection of the population from cancer effects (i.e. functional utility of the LNT model) while offering the possibility of significant reductions in cancer incidence should the hormetic dose-response model predictions be correct. The dose yielding the 10(-4) cancer risk therefore yields the optimized toxicologically based "regulatory sweet spot". Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Model Comprehensive Risk Assessment of the Insurance Company: Tradition and Innovation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulia Slepukhina

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the traditional methods of evaluating financial risk arising from the insurance business, such as method correction norm of discount, method reliable equivalents, sensitivity analysis of efficiency criteria, analysis of the probability distributions, decision trees, method based on the fuzzy sets theory, and other, identified their advantages and disadvantages. In the study author proposes developed by him a model of the complex (integrated risk assessment arising in insurance companies. It is proved that the greatest effect of risk management can be achieved by using an integrated approach to their assessment and analysis, i.e. considering different groups of risks arising from the activities of the insurance company, not abstracted from each other, and together, taking into account their mutual influence and the dynamics change.

  11. STRUCTURE OF MODELS FOR AGGREGATE ASSESSMENT OF FINANCIAL RISK COMMERCIAL BANKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Kryshtal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Conceptual approaches use a structural model for assessment of financial risk commercial banks, namely the risk measurement in combination: a comparison of its capital, calculated based on the standard approach of Basel II advanced approaches of Basel II and the structural model. Analysis of the application of the model in a economics crisis situation, such as the capital adequacy of the commercial banks. Deals with a unified approach to the choice of measure and its risk parameters to measure the risks of different nature. There was also a speaker examined risk factors and the corresponding volumes of portfolios at risk, per month from 2014 to 2015 for the commercial banks, namely the weighted average yield on loans (including the reserve individuals, legal entities, banks; the average cost of deposits of individuals and legal entities; market portfolio yield securities (RTS Index; the share of administrative and economic costs in the assets of the bank. For each risk factor were built parametric approximation of their historical distributions. Graphically shows the distribution, yield corporate loan portfolio, the cost of redundancy, the cost of deposits of individuals and entities that reflect the behavior of risk factors in conditions of economics crisis.

  12. Modeling tools for the assessment of microbiological risks during floods: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collender, Philip; Yang, Wen; Stieglitz, Marc; Remais, Justin

    2015-04-01

    Floods are a major, recurring source of harm to global economies and public health. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events under future climate change, coupled with continued urbanization in areas with high risk of floods, may exacerbate future impacts of flooding. Improved flood risk management is essential to support global development, poverty reduction and public health, and is likely to be a crucial aspect of climate change adaptation. Importantly, floods can facilitate the transmission of waterborne pathogens by changing social conditions (overcrowding among displaced populations, interruption of public health services), imposing physical challenges to infrastructure (sewerage overflow, reduced capacity to treat drinking water), and altering fate and transport of pathogens (transport into waterways from overland flow, resuspension of settled contaminants) during and after flood conditions. Hydrological and hydrodynamic models are capable of generating quantitative characterizations of microbiological risks associated with flooding, while accounting for these diverse and at times competing physical and biological processes. Despite a few applications of such models to the quantification of microbiological risks associated with floods, there exists limited guidance as to the relative capabilities, and limitations, of existing modeling platforms when used for this purpose. Here, we review 17 commonly used flood and water quality modeling tools that have demonstrated or implicit capabilities of mechanistically representing and quantifying microbial risk during flood conditions. We compare models with respect to their capabilities of generating outputs that describe physical and microbial conditions during floods, such as concentration or load of non-cohesive sediments or pathogens, and the dynamics of high flow conditions. Recommendations are presented for the application of specific modeling tools for assessing

  13. Risk assessment framework of fate and transport models applied to hazardous waste sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, S.T.

    1993-06-01

    Risk assessment is an increasingly important part of the decision-making process in the cleanup of hazardous waste sites. Despite guidelines from regulatory agencies and considerable research efforts to reduce uncertainties in risk assessments, there are still many issues unanswered. This paper presents new research results pertaining to fate and transport models, which will be useful in estimating exposure concentrations and will help reduce uncertainties in risk assessment. These developments include an approach for (1) estimating the degree of emissions and concentration levels of volatile pollutants during the use of contaminated water, (2) absorption of organic chemicals in the soil matrix through the skin, and (3) steady state, near-field, contaminant concentrations in the aquifer within a waste boundary.

  14. A quantitative risk assessment model for Vibrio parahaemolyticus in raw oysters in Sao Paulo State, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobrinho, Paulo de S Costa; Destro, Maria T; Franco, Bernadette D G M; Landgraf, Mariza

    2014-06-16

    A risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus associated with raw oysters produced and consumed in São Paulo State was developed. The model was built according to the United States Food and Drug Administration framework for risk assessment. The outcome of the exposure assessment estimated the prevalence and density of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in raw oysters from harvest to consumption. The result of the exposure step was combined with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to estimate the probability of illness. The model predicted that the average risks per serving of raw oysters were 4.7×10(-4), 6.0×10(-4), 4.7×10(-4) and 3.1×10(-4) for spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the most influential variables on the risk of illness were the total density of V. parahaemolyticus at harvest, transport temperature, relative prevalence of pathogenic strains and storage time at retail. Only storage time under refrigeration at retail showed negative correlation with the risk of illness.

  15. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  16. Physicologically Based Toxicokinetic Models of Tebuconazole and Application in Human Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Svava Osk; Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Petersen, Annette

    2016-01-01

    A series of physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models for tebuconazole were developed in four species, rat, rabbit, rhesus monkey, and human. The developed models were analyzed with respect to the application of the models in higher tier human risk assessment, and the prospect of using...... (ADME) of tebuconazole. The developed models were validated on in vivo half-life data for rabbit with good results, and on plasma and tissue concentration-time course data of tebuconazole after i.v. administration in rabbit. In most cases, the predicted concentration levels were seen to be within...... a factor of 2 compared to the experimental data, which is the threshold set for the use of PBTK simulation results in risk assessment. An exception to this was seen for one of the target organs, namely, the liver, for which tebuconazole concentration was significantly underestimated, a trend also seen...

  17. Integrating Fire Behavior Models and Geospatial Analysis for Wildland Fire Risk Assessment and Fuel Management Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan A. Ager

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals and public expectations. A number of fire behavior metrics, including fire spread, intensity, likelihood, and ecological risk must be analyzed for multiple treatment alternatives. The effect of treatments on wildfire impacts must be considered at multiple scales. The process is complicated by the lack of data integration among fire behavior models, and weak linkages to geographic information systems, corporate data, and desktop office software. This paper describes our efforts to build a streamlined fuel management planning and risk assessment framework, and an integrated system of tools for designing and testing fuel treatment programs on fire-prone wildlands.

  18. Risk assessment of consuming agricultural products irrigated with reclaimed wastewater: An exposure model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ginneken, Meike; Oron, Gideon

    2000-09-01

    This study assesses health risks to consumers due to the use of agricultural products irrigated with reclaimed wastewater. The analysis is based on a definition of an exposure model which takes into account several parameters: (1) the quality of the applied wastewater, (2) the irrigation method, (3) the elapsed times between irrigation, harvest, and product consumption, and (4) the consumers' habits. The exposure model is used for numerical simulation of human consumers' risks using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of the numerical simulation show large deviations, probably caused by uncertainty (impreciseness in quality of input data) and variability due to diversity among populations. There is a 10-orders of magnitude difference in the risk of infection between the different exposure scenarios with the same water quality. This variation indicates the need for setting risk-based criteria for wastewater reclamation rather than single water quality guidelines. Extra data are required to decrease uncertainty in the risk assessment. Future research needs to include definition of acceptable risk criteria, more accurate dose-response modeling, information regarding pathogen survival in treated wastewater, additional data related to the passage of pathogens into and in the plants during irrigation, and information regarding the behavior patterns of the community of human consumers.

  19. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger [Galson Sciences Ltd (United Kingdom)

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference

  20. An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for risk assessment of groundwater contamination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianbing; Huang, Gordon H; Zeng, Guangming; Maqsood, Imran; Huang, Yuefei

    2007-01-01

    An integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment (IFSRA) approach was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with site conditions, environmental guidelines, and health impact criteria. The contaminant concentrations in groundwater predicted from a numerical model were associated with probabilistic uncertainties due to the randomness in modeling input parameters, while the consequences of contaminant concentrations violating relevant environmental quality guidelines and health evaluation criteria were linked with fuzzy uncertainties. The contaminant of interest in this study was xylene. The environmental quality guideline was divided into three different strictness categories: "loose", "medium" and "strict". The environmental-guideline-based risk (ER) and health risk (HR) due to xylene ingestion were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The ER and HR risk levels were divided into five categories of "low", "low-to-medium", "medium", "medium-to-high" and "high", respectively. The general risk levels included six categories ranging from "low" to "very high". The fuzzy membership functions of the related fuzzy events and the fuzzy rule base were established based on a questionnaire survey. Thus the IFSRA integrated fuzzy logic, expert involvement, and stochastic simulation within a general framework. The robustness of the modeling processes was enhanced through the effective reflection of the two types of uncertainties as compared with the conventional risk assessment approaches. The developed IFSRA was applied to a petroleum-contaminated groundwater system in western Canada. Three scenarios with different environmental quality guidelines were analyzed, and reasonable results were obtained. The risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a unique tool for systematically quantifying various uncertainties in contaminated site management, and it also

  1. An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

  2. Quantitative microbial risk assessment combined with hydrodynamic modelling to estimate the public health risk associated with bathing after rainfall events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eregno, Fasil Ejigu; Tryland, Ingun; Tjomsland, Torulv; Myrmel, Mette; Robertson, Lucy; Heistad, Arve

    2016-04-01

    This study investigated the public health risk from exposure to infectious microorganisms at Sandvika recreational beaches, Norway and dose-response relationships by combining hydrodynamic modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). Meteorological and hydrological data were collected to produce a calibrated hydrodynamic model using Escherichia coli as an indicator of faecal contamination. Based on average concentrations of reference pathogens (norovirus, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Giardia and Cryptosporidium) relative to E. coli in Norwegian sewage from previous studies, the hydrodynamic model was used for simulating the concentrations of pathogens at the local beaches during and after a heavy rainfall event, using three different decay rates. The simulated concentrations were used as input for QMRA and the public health risk was estimated as probability of infection from a single exposure of bathers during the three consecutive days after the rainfall event. The level of risk on the first day after the rainfall event was acceptable for the bacterial and parasitic reference pathogens, but high for the viral reference pathogen at all beaches, and severe at Kalvøya-small and Kalvøya-big beaches, supporting the advice of avoiding swimming in the day(s) after heavy rainfall. The study demonstrates the potential of combining discharge-based hydrodynamic modelling with QMRA in the context of bathing water as a tool to evaluate public health risk and support beach management decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Assessing the Performance of Value-at-Risk Models in Chinese Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Lin

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, parametric, nonparametric, and semi-parametric models are applied to a hypothetical portfolio - Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index to estimate Value-at-Risk in Chinese market. In order to assess the performance of different approaches, the statistic features such as kurtosis, skewness and autocorrelation of daily return have been studied. In addition, this article analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of each model and implements back-tests to check the validation of t...

  4. Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

  5. A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions.

  6. Large-scale model-based assessment of deer-vehicle collision risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

    2012-01-01

    Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer-vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on >74,000 deer-vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer-vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer-vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment-deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new "deer-vehicle collision index" for deer management. We show that the risk of deer-vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer-vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer-vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and defining hunting quota. Open

  7. Prioritization of chemicals in the aquatic environment based on risk assessment: analytical, modeling and regulatory perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillén, D; Ginebreda, A; Farré, M; Darbra, R M; Petrovic, M; Gros, M; Barceló, D

    2012-12-01

    The extensive and intensive use of chemicals in our developed, highly technological society includes more than 100,000 chemical substances. Significant scientific evidence has lead to the recognition that their improper use and release may result in undesirable and harmful side-effects on both the human and ecosystem health. To cope with them, appropriate risk assessment processes and related prioritization schemes have been developed in order to provide the necessary scientific support for regulatory procedures. In the present paper, two of the elements that constitute the core of risk assessment, namely occurrence and hazard effects, have been discussed. Recent advances in analytical chemistry (sample pre-treatment and instrumental equipment, etc.) have allowed for more comprehensive monitoring of environmental pollution reaching limits of detection up to sub ng L(-1). Alternative to analytical measurements, occurrence models can provide risk managers with a very interesting approach for estimating environmental concentrations from real or hypothetical scenarios. The most representative prioritization schemes used for issuing lists of concerning chemicals have also been examined and put in the context of existing environmental policies for protection strategies and regulations. Finally, new challenges in the field of risk-assessment have been outlined, including those posed by new materials (i.e., nanomaterials), transformation products, multi-chemical exposure, or extension of the risk assessment process to the whole ecosystem.

  8. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

    2009-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

  9. Model of Information Security Risk Assessment based on Improved Wavelet Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Chen

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper concentrates on the information security risk assessment model utilizing the improved wavelet neural network. The structure of wavelet neural network is similar to the multi-layer neural network, which is a feed-forward neural network with one or more inputs. Afterwards, we point out that the training process of wavelet neural networks is made up of four steps until the value of error function can satisfy a pre-defined error criteria. In order to enhance the quality of information security risk assessment, we proposed a modified version of wavelet neural network which can effectively combine all influencing factors in assessing information security risk by linear integrating several weights. Furthermore, the proposed wavelet neural network is trained by the BP algorithm with batch mode, and the weight coefficients of the wavelet are modified with the adopting mode. Finally, a series of experiments are conduct to make performance evaluation. From the experimental results, we can see that the proposed model can assess information security risk accurately and rapidly

  10. Assessing the risk persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ault, Toby R.; Cole, Julia E.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Meko, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Projected changes in global rainfall patterns will likely alter water supplies and ecosystems in semiarid regions during the coming century. Instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that natural hydroclimate fluctuations tend to be more energetic at low (multidecadal to multicentury) than at high (interannual) frequencies. State-of-the-art global climate models do not capture this characteristic of hydroclimate variability, suggesting that the models underestimate the risk of future persistent droughts. Methods are developed here for assessing the risk of such events in the coming century using climate model projections as well as observational (paleoclimate) information. Where instrumental and paleoclimate data are reliable, these methods may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk. In the U.S. Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; the analysis herein suggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas. The likelihood of longer-lived events (>35 yr) is between 20% and 50%, and the risk of an unprecedented 50-yr megadrought is nonnegligible under the most severe warming scenario (5%–10%). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadrought—worse than anything seen during the last 2000 years—would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region.

  11. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  12. Issues in risk assessment and modifications of the NRC health effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1992-07-02

    A report, Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, was published by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, in 1985, and revised in 1989. These reports provided models for estimating health effects that would be expected to result from the radiation exposure received in a nuclear reactor accident. Separate models were given for early occurring effects, late somatic effects, and genetic effects; however, this paper addresses only late somatic effects, or the risk of cancer expected to occur in the lifetimes of exposed individuals. The 1989 revision was prepared prior to the publication of the BEIR V, 1988 UNSCEAR, and ICRP 60 reports. For this reason, an addendum was needed that would provide modified risk models that took into account these recent reports, and, more generally, any new evidence that had appeared since the 1989 publication. Of special importance was consideration of updated analyses of the Japanese A-bomb survivor study data based on revised DS86 dosimetry. The process of preparing the addendum required thorough review and evaluation of the models used by the BEIR V, UNSCEAR, and ICRP committees, and also required thorough consideration of the various decisions that must be made in any risk assessment effort. This paper emphasizes general issues and problems that arise in risk assessment, and also indicates areas where additional development and application of statistical methods may be fruitful.

  13. Are engineered nano iron oxide particles safe? an environmental risk assessment by probabilistic exposure, effects and risk modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Deng, Lei; Caballero-Guzman, Alejandro; Nowack, Bernd

    2016-12-01

    Nano iron oxide particles are beneficial to our daily lives through their use in paints, construction materials, biomedical imaging and other industrial fields. However, little is known about the possible risks associated with the current exposure level of engineered nano iron oxides (nano-FeOX) to organisms in the environment. The goal of this study was to predict the release of nano-FeOX to the environment and assess their risks for surface waters in the EU and Switzerland. The material flows of nano-FeOX to technical compartments (waste incineration and waste water treatment plants) and to the environment were calculated with a probabilistic modeling approach. The mean value of the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of nano-FeOX in surface waters in the EU for a worst-case scenario (no particle sedimentation) was estimated to be 28 ng/l. Using a probabilistic species sensitivity distribution, the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) was determined from ecotoxicological data. The risk characterization ratio, calculated by dividing the PEC by PNEC values, was used to characterize the risks. The mean risk characterization ratio was predicted to be several orders of magnitude smaller than 1 (1.4 × 10(-)(4)). Therefore, this modeling effort indicates that only a very limited risk is posed by the current release level of nano-FeOX to organisms in surface waters. However, a better understanding of the hazards of nano-FeOX to the organisms in other ecosystems (such as sediment) needs to be assessed to determine the overall risk of these particles to the environment.

  14. A fracture risk assessment model of the femur in children with osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) during gait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Jessica M; Guan, Yabo; Wang, Mei; Smith, Peter A; Harris, Gerald F

    2009-11-01

    Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a heritable bone fragility disorder characterized by skeletal deformities and increased bone fragility. There is currently no established clinical method for quantifying fracture risk in OI patients. This study begins the development of a patient-specific model for femur fracture risk assessment and prediction based on individuals' gait analysis data, bone geometry from imaging and material properties from nanoindentation (Young's modulus=19 GPa, Poisson's ratio=0.3). Finite element models of the femur were developed to assess fracture risk of the femur in a pediatric patient with OI type I. Kinetic data from clinical gait analysis was used to prescribe loading conditions on the femoral head and condyles along with muscle forces on the bone's surface. von Mises stresses were analyzed against a fracture strength of 115 MPa. The patient with OI whose femur was modeled showed no risk of femoral fracture during normal gait. The highest stress levels occurred during the mid-stance and loading responses phases of gait. The location of high stress migrated throughout the femoral diaphysis across the gait cycle. Maximum femoral stress levels occurred during the gait cycle phases associated with the highest loading. The fracture risk (fracture strength/von Mises stress), however, was low. This study provides a relevant method for combining functional activity, material property and analytical methods to improve patient monitoring.

  15. A Global Climate Model based event set for tropical cyclone risk assessment in the West Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitolo, Renato; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Stephenson, David; Cook, Ian; Flay, Shaun; Foote, Matthew

    2010-05-01

    We propose a new approach to the creation of a stochastic event set for tropical cyclone risk assessment in West Pacific, for use in the insurance industry in the catastrophe modelling process. The event set is based on both available observational data and a database of tropical cyclones dynamically simulated by a state-of-the-art Global Climate Model. For an initial proof of concept exercise we focus on the West Pacific region: Japan, China and South-East Asia. A database of tropical cyclone tracks is extracted from over 200 years of current climate simulations by HiGEM1.1, a high resolution, coupled ocean-atmosphere Global Climate Model. A bias correction procedure is applied to model the central pressure of the dynamically HiGEM-simulated tropical cyclones in terms of the observed (IBTrACS) distribution of central pressures. The bias-corrected storm track database is statistically sampled and spatially perturbed to produce a 1000 year database of synthetic storms. The proposed approach has several advantages: 1. it is based on a long-term, globally consistent source of dynamically simulated tropical storms under current state of the atmosphere/climate; this compensates reliance on limited and/or inconsistent historical data and provides a much larger sampling for the distribution of the tropical cyclone landfalls; 2. it allows assessment of how large scale natural climate variability may influence regional tropical cyclone activity on multidecadal time scales, and how this may alter risk; 3. it allows to analyse teleconnections in weather extremes, and hence potential accumulation of seemingly unrelated risk; 4. it can be further developed to assess how climate change may affect tropical cyclone risk in the future. Adopting an integrated approach may begin to change the way that weather related risk is understood and assessed in the insurance industry.

  16. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  17. VTE Risk assessment – a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schürmann Rolf

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE. There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. Materials and methods A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18–55 years, was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993. The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. Results Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs. A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation. Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%, moderate risk (21.1%, high risk (6.0%, very high risk of future VTE (0.9%. In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. Conclusion Our prognostic tool – containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data

  18. Integration of Gis-analysis and Atmospheric Modelling For Nuclear Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigina, O.; Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.

    The paper is devoted to the problems of residential radiation risk and territorial vul- nerability with respect to nuclear sites in Europe. The study suggests two approaches, based on an integration of the GIS-analysis and the atmospheric modelling, to calcu- late radiation risk/vulnerability. First, modelling simulations were done for a number of case-studies, based on real data, such as reactor core inventory and estimations from the known accidents, for a number of typical meteorological conditions and different accidental scenarios. Then, using these simulations and the population database as input data, the GIS-analysis reveals administrative units at the highest risk with re- spect to the mean individual and collective doses received by the population. Then, two alternative methods were suggested to assess a probabilistic risk to the population in case of a severe accident on the Kola and Leningrad NPPs (as examples) based on social-geophysical factors: proximity to the accident site, population density and presence of critical groups, and the probabilities of wind trajectories and precipitation. The two latter probabilities were calculated by the atmospheric trajectory models and statistical methods for many years. The GIS analysis was done for the Nordic coun- tries as an example. GIS-based spatial analyses integrated with mathematical mod- elling allow to develop a common methodological approach for complex assessment of regional vulnerability and residential radiation risk, by merging together the sepa- rate aspects: modelling of consequences, probabilistic analysis of atmospheric flows, dose estimation etc. The approach was capable to create risk/vulnerability maps of the Nordic countries and to reveal the most vulnerable provinces with respect to the radiation risk sites.

  19. Integrated Water and Sanitation Risk Assessment and Modeling in the Upper Sonora River basin (Northwest, Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, A. S.; Robles-Morua, A.; Halvorsen, K. E.; Vivoni, E. R.; Auer, M. T.

    2011-12-01

    Studies that integrate human dimensions and the biophysical characteristics of watersheds are necessary to meet the challenge of sustainable water resources development. In this project, we integrated perspectives from sociology, hydrology, and environmental engineering to examine and suggest solutions for managing waterborne disease risks associated with wastewater contamination in the Sonora River basin (SRB), a semiarid rural basin in northwest Mexico. This research consisted of four sub-projects. First, we assessed the perceptions of risks associated with wastewater contamination of water resources in rural communities in the SRB through a series of semi-structured interviews Results from this study indicate that there are major differences in risk perceptions among health professionals, government officials, and lay citizens. Government officials and lay citizens tend to underestimate the severity of the problems related to water related risks. Second, a fully distributed hydrologic model was used to make streamflow predictions in the un-gauged SRB. Synthetic flows generated from the hydrologic model were used to evaluate pollutant transport processes associated with wastewater loadings to the Sonora River. The hydrologic model revealed that the high degree of spatio-temporal variability of runoff in the SRB is associated with links between runoff generation mechanisms and land-atmosphere interactions. Third, a surface water quality model was used to assess the impact of wastewater discharges and develop pathogen contamination indicators in two sites along the Sonora River. To parameterize the water quality model, pathogenic indicator loadings and removal rates were estimated, along with their uncertainty. Results from the water quality modeling show regions in the watershed that may be exceeding pathogenic standards, but also that uncertainty in model parameters requires a probabilistic approach for estimating risks. Finally, a workshop was conducted to

  20. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  1. Credit Risk Assessment Model Based Using Principal component Analysis And Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamdy Abeer

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk assessment for bank customers has gained increasing attention in recent years. Several models for credit scoring have been proposed in the literature for this purpose. The accuracy of the model is crucial for any financial institution’s profitability. This paper provided a high accuracy credit scoring model that could be utilized with small and large datasets utilizing a principal component analysis (PCA based breakdown to the significance of the attributes commonly used in the credit scoring models. The proposed credit scoring model applied PCA to acquire the main attributes of the credit scoring data then an ANN classifier to determine the credit worthiness of an individual applicant. The performance of the proposed model was compared to other models in terms of accuracy and training time. Results, based on German dataset showed that the proposed model is superior to others and computationally cheaper. Thus it can be a potential candidate for future credit scoring systems.

  2. A REVIEW OF MULTI-HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT (MHRA USING 4D DYNAMIC MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Bibi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the 4D dynamic models for multi natural hazard risk assessment. It is important to review the characteristic of the different dynamic models and to choose the most suitable model for certain application. The characteristic of the different 4D dynamic models are based on several main aspects (e.g. space, time, event or phenomenon etc.. The most suitable 4D dynamic model depends on the type of application it is used for. There is no single 4D Dynamic model suitable for all types of application. Therefore, it is very important to define the requirements of the 4D Dynamic model. The main context of this paper is spatio temporal modelling for multi hazards.

  3. Discrete Fracture Network Models for Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration in Coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jack Pashin; Guohai Jin; Chunmiao Zheng; Song Chen; Marcella McIntyre

    2008-07-01

    A software package called DFNModeler has been developed to assess the potential risks associated with carbon sequestration in coal. Natural fractures provide the principal conduits for fluid flow in coal-bearing strata, and these fractures present the most tangible risks for the leakage of injected carbon dioxide. The objectives of this study were to develop discrete fracture network (DFN) modeling tools for risk assessment and to use these tools to assess risks in the Black Warrior Basin of Alabama, where coal-bearing strata have high potential for carbon sequestration and enhanced coalbed methane recovery. DFNModeler provides a user-friendly interface for the construction, visualization, and analysis of DFN models. DFNModeler employs an OpenGL graphics engine that enables real-time manipulation of DFN models. Analytical capabilities in DFNModeler include display of structural and hydrologic parameters, compartmentalization analysis, and fluid pathways analysis. DFN models can be exported to third-party software packages for flow modeling. DFN models were constructed to simulate fracturing in coal-bearing strata of the upper Pottsville Formation in the Black Warrior Basin. Outcrops and wireline cores were used to characterize fracture systems, which include joint systems, cleat systems, and fault-related shear fractures. DFN models were constructed to simulate jointing, cleating, faulting, and hydraulic fracturing. Analysis of DFN models indicates that strata-bound jointing compartmentalizes the Pottsville hydrologic system and helps protect shallow aquifers from injection operations at reservoir depth. Analysis of fault zones, however, suggests that faulting can facilitate cross-formational flow. For this reason, faults should be avoided when siting injection wells. DFN-based flow models constructed in TOUGH2 indicate that fracture aperture and connectivity are critical variables affecting the leakage of injected CO{sub 2} from coal. Highly transmissive joints

  4. Unsaturated zone leaching models for assessing risk to groundwater of contaminated sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Mads; Binning, Philip John; Nielsen, Signe;

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessments of sites contaminated with organic contaminants are typically conducted using models that ignore gas phase transport in the unsaturated zone. Here a general approach to developing analytical solutions to multiphase transport is presented. The approach is based on a combined gas...... are important mechanisms for attenuation of contaminant concentrations at the water table. Finally, model results are compared with field data to illustrate the applicability of the solutions in risk assessment....... and aqueous phase contaminant transport equation. The equation has the same general form as the standard advection-diffusion equation for which many analytical solutions have been derived. Four new analytical solutions are developed using this approach: a three-dimensional solution accounting for infiltration...

  5. Clinical Prediction Model and Tool for Assessing Risk of Persistent Pain After Breast Cancer Surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meretoja, Tuomo J; Andersen, Kenneth Geving; Bruce, Julie

    2017-01-01

    at 1 year postoperatively were developed by logistic regression analyses in the Finnish patient cohort. The models were tested in two independent cohorts from Denmark and Scotland by assessing the areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC-AUCs). The outcome variable was moderate......), high body mass index ( P = .039), axillary lymph node dissection ( P = .008), and more severe acute postoperative pain intensity at the seventh postoperative day ( P = .003) predicted persistent pain in the final prediction model, which performed well in the Danish (ROC-AUC, 0.739) and Scottish (ROC......-AUC, 0.740) cohorts. At the 20% risk level, the model had 32.8% and 47.4% sensitivity and 94.4% and 82.4% specificity in the Danish and Scottish cohorts, respectively. Conclusion Our validated prediction models and an online risk calculator provide clinicians and researchers with a simple tool to screen...

  6. On-line Meteorology-Chemistry/Aerosols Modelling and Integration for Risk Assessment: Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostanbekov, Kairat; Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Nurseitov, Daniyar; Zakarin, Edige; Baklanov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    On regional level, and especially in areas with potential diverse sources of industrial pollutants, the risk assessment of impact on environment and population is critically important. During normal operations, the risk is minimal. However, during accidental situations, the risk is increased due to releases of harmful pollutants into different environments such as water, soil, and atmosphere where it is following processes of continuous transformation and transport. In this study, the Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment High Resolution Limited Area Model) was adapted and employed for assessment of scenarios with accidental and continuous emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) for selected case studies during January of 2010. The following scenarios were considered: (i) control reference run; (ii) accidental release (due to short-term 1 day fire at oil storage facility) occurred at city of Atyrau (Kazakhstan) near the northern part of the Caspian Sea; and (iii) doubling of original continuous emissions from three locations of metallurgical enterprises on the Kola Peninsula (Russia). The implemented aerosol microphysics module M7 uses 5 types - sulphates, sea salt, dust, black and organic carbon; as well as distributed in 7 size modes. Removal processes of aerosols include gravitational settling and wet deposition. As the Enviro-HIRLAM model is the on-line integrated model, both meteorological and chemical processes are simultaneously modelled at each time step. The modelled spatio-temporal variations for meteorological and chemical patterns are analyzed for both European and Kazakhstan regions domains. The results of evaluation of sulphur dioxide concentration and deposition on main populated cities, selected regions, countries are presented employing GIS tools. As outcome, the results of Enviro-HIRLAM modelling for accidental release near the Caspian Sea are integrated into the RANDOM (Risk Assessment of Nature Detriment due to Oil spill Migration) system.

  7. Framework for microbial food-safety risk assessments amenable to Bayesian modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Michael S; Ebel, Eric D; Vose, David

    2011-04-01

    Regulatory agencies often perform microbial risk assessments to evaluate the change in the number of human illnesses as the result of a new policy that reduces the level of contamination in the food supply. These agencies generally have regulatory authority over the production and retail sectors of the farm-to-table continuum. Any predicted change in contamination that results from new policy that regulates production practices occurs many steps prior to consumption of the product. This study proposes a framework for conducting microbial food-safety risk assessments; this framework can be used to quantitatively assess the annual effects of national regulatory policies. Advantages of the framework are that estimates of human illnesses are consistent with national disease surveillance data (which are usually summarized on an annual basis) and some of the modeling steps that occur between production and consumption can be collapsed or eliminated. The framework leads to probabilistic models that include uncertainty and variability in critical input parameters; these models can be solved using a number of different Bayesian methods. The Bayesian synthesis method performs well for this application and generates posterior distributions of parameters that are relevant to assessing the effect of implementing a new policy. An example, based on Campylobacter and chicken, estimates the annual number of illnesses avoided by a hypothetical policy; this output could be used to assess the economic benefits of a new policy. Empirical validation of the policy effect is also examined by estimating the annual change in the numbers of illnesses observed via disease surveillance systems.

  8. Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the final version of the CBA-DK decision support model for assessment of transport projects. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval...... result, and the determination of suitable probability distributions. Use is made of the reference class forecasting information, such as that developed in Optimism Bias for adjustments to investment decisions that relate to all modes of transport. The CBA-DK decision support model results in more...

  9. Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, M.

    2008-01-01

    Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  10. MobRISK: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to flash flood events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabou, Saif; Ruin, Isabelle; Lutoff, Céline; Debionne, Samuel; Anquetin, Sandrine; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Beaufils, Xavier

    2017-09-01

    Recent flash flood impact studies highlight that road networks are often disrupted due to adverse weather and flash flood events. Road users are thus particularly exposed to road flooding during their daily mobility. Previous exposure studies, however, do not take into consideration population mobility. Recent advances in transportation research provide an appropriate framework for simulating individual travel-activity patterns using an activity-based approach. These activity-based mobility models enable the prediction of the sequence of activities performed by individuals and locating them with a high spatial-temporal resolution. This paper describes the development of the MobRISK microsimulation system: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to extreme hydrometeorological events. MobRISK aims at providing an accurate spatiotemporal exposure assessment by integrating travel-activity behaviors and mobility adaptation with respect to weather disruptions. The model is applied in a flash-flood-prone area in southern France to assess motorists' exposure to the September 2002 flash flood event. The results show that risk of flooding mainly occurs in principal road links with considerable traffic load. However, a lag time between the timing of the road submersion and persons crossing these roads contributes to reducing the potential vehicle-related fatal accidents. It is also found that sociodemographic variables have a significant effect on individual exposure. Thus, the proposed model demonstrates the benefits of considering spatiotemporal dynamics of population exposure to flash floods and presents an important improvement in exposure assessment methods. Such improved characterization of road user exposures can present valuable information for flood risk management services.

  11. Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understand from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.

  12. Psychometric assessment of HIV/STI sexual risk scale among MSM: A Rasch model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Hui

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little research has assessed the degree of severity and ordering of different types of sexual behaviors for HIV/STI infection in a measurement scale. The purpose of this study was to apply the Rasch model on psychometric assessment of an HIV/STI sexual risk scale among men who have sex with men (MSM. Methods A cross-sectional study using respondent driven sampling was conducted among 351 MSM in Shenzhen, China. The Rasch model was used to examine the psychometric properties of an HIV/STI sexual risk scale including nine types of sexual behaviors. Results The Rasch analysis of the nine items met the unidimensionality and local independence assumption. Although the person reliability was low at 0.35, the item reliability was high at 0.99. The fit statistics provided acceptable infit and outfit values. Item difficulty invariance analysis showed that the item estimates of the risk behavior items were invariant (within error. Conclusions The findings suggest that the Rasch model can be utilized for measuring the level of sexual risk for HIV/STI infection as a single latent construct and for establishing the relative degree of severity of each type of sexual behavior in HIV/STI transmission and acquisition among MSM. The measurement scale provides a useful measurement tool to inform, design and evaluate behavioral interventions for HIV/STI infection among MSM.

  13. Applying simulation modeling to problems in toxicology and risk assessment--a short perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, M E; Clewell, H J; Frederick, C B

    1995-08-01

    The goals of this perspective have been to examine areas where quantitative simulation models may be useful in toxicology and related risk assessment fields and to offer suggestions for preparing manuscripts that describe these models. If developments in other disciplines serve as a bell-wether, the use of mathematical models in toxicology will continue to increase, partly, at least, because the new generations of scientists are being trained in an electronic environment where computation of all kinds is learned at an early age. Undoubtedly, however, the utility of these models will be directly tied to the skills of investigators in accurately describing models in their research papers. These publications should convey descriptions of both the insights obtained and the opportunities provided by these models to integrate existing data bases and suggest new and useful experiments. We hope these comments serve to facilitate the expansion of good modeling practices as applied to toxicological problems.

  14. GEOCODING OF TRAUMA IN CHILDREN AS A MODELING OF CITY RISK ASSESSMENT AREAS (GIS BASED METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DAMIAN ABSALON

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Geocoding of trauma in children as a modeling of city risk assessment areas (GIS based method. The article presents the results of statistical evaluation of fractures in children who were treated in 2009 – 2010 in the Upper Silesian Child Health Center in Katowice, Department of Orthopedics and Traumatology and it attempts to calculate the risk of injury. The overall statistical analysis involved all types of fractures and injuries have been divided due to their location pointing to the most common and the rarest ones and the difference in the amount of fractures in each gender. In the section on the method of calculating the risk of injury in children owing to the ability to take many factors (age, sex into account that affect the occurrence of fracture and the type of injury. This ratio allows to accurately calculate the percentage of those risks. Using a mathematical formula allows the calculation of risk for a number of administrative units and an indication of the existence of such risks in a particular administrative unit. This allows for a spatial representation of the phenomenon through a system of geographic information systems (GIS. Moreover, in both cases, either spatial or just a statistical presentation of data, it is possible to observe dynamic changes in risks over the years.

  15. Significance of genetic information in risk assessment and individual classification using silicosis as a case model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCanlies, E.; Landsittel, D.P.; Yucesoy, B.; Vallyathan, V.; Luster, M.L.; Sharp, D.S. [NIOSH, Morgantown, WV (United States)

    2002-06-01

    Over the last decade the role of genetic data in epidemiological research has expanded considerably. The authors recently published a case-control study that evaluated the interaction between silica exposure and minor variants in the genes coding for interleukin-1alpha. (IL-1alpha), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) as risk factors associated with silicosis, a fibrotic lung disease. In contrast, this report uses data generated from these studies to illustrate the utility of genetic information for the purposes of risk assessment and clinical prediction. Specifically, this study addresses how, given a known exposure, genetic information affects the characterization of risk groups. Relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves were then used to determine the impact of genetic information on individual classification. Logistic regression modeling procedures were used to estimate the predicted probability of developing silicosis. This probability was then used to construct predicted risk deciles, first for a model with occupational exposure only and then for a model containing occupational exposure and genetic main effects and interactions. The results indicate that genetic information plays a valuable role in effectively characterizing risk groups and mechanisms of disease operating in a substantial proportion of the population. However, in the case of fibrotic lung disease caused by silica exposure, information about the presence or absence of the minor variants of IL-1alpha, IL-1RA and TNFalpha is unlikely to be a useful tool for individual classification.

  16. Modeling the survival kinetics of Salmonella in tree nuts for use in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillana Farakos, Sofia M; Pouillot, Régis; Anderson, Nathan; Johnson, Rhoma; Son, Insook; Van Doren, Jane

    2016-06-16

    Salmonella has been shown to survive in tree nuts over long periods of time. This survival capacity and its variability are key elements for risk assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict survival of Salmonella in tree nuts at ambient storage temperatures that considers variability and uncertainty separately and can easily be incorporated into a risk assessment model. Data on Salmonella survival on raw almonds, pecans, pistachios and walnuts were collected from the peer reviewed literature. The Weibull model was chosen as the baseline model and various fixed effect and mixed effect models were fit to the data. The best model identified through statistical analysis testing was then used to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model. Salmonella in tree nuts showed slow declines at temperatures ranging from 21°C to 24°C. A high degree of variability in survival was observed across tree nut studies reported in the literature. Statistical analysis results indicated that the best applicable model was a mixed effect model that included a fixed and random variation of δ per tree nut (which is the time it takes for the first log10 reduction) and a fixed variation of ρ per tree nut (parameter which defines the shape of the curve). Higher estimated survival rates (δ) were obtained for Salmonella on pistachios, followed in decreasing order by pecans, almonds and walnuts. The posterior distributions obtained from Bayesian inference were used to estimate the variability in the log10 decrease levels in survival for each tree nut, and the uncertainty of these estimates. These modeled uncertainty and variability distributions of the estimates can be used to obtain a complete exposure assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts when including time-temperature parameters for storage and consumption data. The statistical approach presented in this study may be applied to any studies that aim to develop predictive models to be

  17. Description of codes and models to be used in risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    Human health and environmental risk assessments will be performed as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) activities at the Hanford Site. Analytical and computer encoded numerical models are commonly used during both the remedial investigation (RI) and feasibility study (FS) to predict or estimate the concentration of contaminants at the point of exposure to humans and/or the environment. This document has been prepared to identify the computer codes that will be used in support of RI/FS human health and environmental risk assessments at the Hanford Site. In addition to the CERCLA RI/FS process, it is recommended that these computer codes be used when fate and transport analyses is required for other activities. Additional computer codes may be used for other purposes (e.g., design of tracer tests, location of observation wells, etc.). This document provides guidance for unit managers in charge of RI/FS activities. Use of the same computer codes for all analytical activities at the Hanford Site will promote consistency, reduce the effort required to develop, validate, and implement models to simulate Hanford Site conditions, and expedite regulatory review. The discussion provides a description of how models will likely be developed and utilized at the Hanford Site. It is intended to summarize previous environmental-related modeling at the Hanford Site and provide background for future model development. The modeling capabilities that are desirable for the Hanford Site and the codes that were evaluated. The recommendations include the codes proposed to support future risk assessment modeling at the Hanford Site, and provides the rational for the codes selected. 27 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Statistical modeling of complex health outcomes and air pollution data: Application of air quality health indexing for asthma risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swarna Weerasinghe

    2017-03-01

    Conclusion:  This study demonstrated the importance of complex statistical model use and the consequences of lack of such modelling that accounted for data structures in public health risk assessments.

  19. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  20. Physics-Based Fragment Acceleration Modeling for Pressurized Tank Burst Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Ted A.; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2014-01-01

    As part of comprehensive efforts to develop physics-based risk assessment techniques for space systems at NASA, coupled computational fluid and rigid body dynamic simulations were carried out to investigate the flow mechanisms that accelerate tank fragments in bursting pressurized vessels. Simulations of several configurations were compared to analyses based on the industry-standard Baker explosion model, and were used to formulate an improved version of the model. The standard model, which neglects an external fluid, was found to agree best with simulation results only in configurations where the internal-to-external pressure ratio is very high and fragment curvature is small. The improved model introduces terms that accommodate an external fluid and better account for variations based on circumferential fragment count. Physics-based analysis was critical in increasing the model's range of applicability. The improved tank burst model can be used to produce more accurate risk assessments of space vehicle failure modes that involve high-speed debris, such as exploding propellant tanks and bursting rocket engines.

  1. Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2010-01-01

    results. Two special concerns in this paper is firstly the treatment of feasibility risk assessment adopted for evaluation of transport infrastructure projects, and secondly whether this can provide a more robust decision support model. This means moving away from a single point estimate to an interval...... result, and the determination of suitable probability distributions. Use is made of the reference class forecasting information, such as that developed in Optimism Bias for adjustments to investment decisions that relate to all modes of transport. The CBA-DK decision support model results in more...

  2. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  3. A toxicokinetic model for thiamethoxam in rats: implications for higher-tier risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Edwards, Peter; Sibly, Richard; Thorbek, Pernille

    2013-04-01

    Risk assessment for mammals is currently based on external exposure measurements, but effects of toxicants are better correlated with the systemically available dose than with the external administered dose. So for risk assessment of pesticides, toxicokinetics should be interpreted in the context of potential exposure in the field taking account of the timescale of exposure and individual patterns of feeding. Internal concentration is the net result of absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME). We present a case study for thiamethoxam to show how data from ADME study on rats can be used to parameterize a body burden model which predicts body residue levels after exposures to LD50 dose either as a bolus or eaten at different feeding rates. Kinetic parameters were determined in male and female rats after an intravenous and oral administration of (14)C labelled by fitting one-compartment models to measured pesticide concentrations in blood for each individual separately. The concentration of thiamethoxam in blood over time correlated closely with concentrations in other tissues and so was considered representative of pesticide concentration in the whole body. Body burden model simulations showed that maximum body weight-normalized doses of thiamethoxam were lower if the same external dose was ingested normally than if it was force fed in a single bolus dose. This indicates lower risk to rats through dietary exposure than would be estimated from the bolus LD50. The importance of key questions that should be answered before using the body burden approach in risk assessment, data requirements and assumptions made in this study are discussed in detail.

  4. Model Components of the Certification Framework for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Bryant, Steven L.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Kumar, Navanit; Zhang, Yingqi; Jordan, Preston; Pan, Lehua; Granvold, Patrick; Chow, Fotini K.

    2009-06-01

    We have developed a framework for assessing the leakage risk of geologic carbon sequestration sites. This framework, known as the Certification Framework (CF), emphasizes wells and faults as the primary potential leakage conduits. Vulnerable resources are grouped into compartments, and impacts due to leakage are quantified by the leakage flux or concentrations that could potentially occur in compartments under various scenarios. The CF utilizes several model components to simulate leakage scenarios. One model component is a catalog of results of reservoir simulations that can be queried to estimate plume travel distances and times, rather than requiring CF users to run new reservoir simulations for each case. Other model components developed for the CF and described here include fault characterization using fault-population statistics; fault connection probability using fuzzy rules; well-flow modeling with a drift-flux model implemented in TOUGH2; and atmospheric dense-gas dispersion using a mesoscale weather prediction code.

  5. Mathematical model for assessment of radiation risk on long space missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnova, O. A.

    A mathematical model is developed which describes the dynamics of radiation-induced mortality in mammalian populations. It relates statistical biometric functions with statistical characteristics and dynamics of an organism's critical system. In the framework of the model the effects of low and very low dose rates of chronic radiation on mice are simulated. Respectively, thrombocytopoietic and granulocytopoietic systems are considered as the critical ones. To calculate the dynamics of these systems, mathematical models are applied, too. In accordance with experimental data, the mortality model reproduces on quantitative level both increased and decreased mortality rates in populations of LAF1 mice, which were chronically exposed, respectively, to low and very low level radiation. All this makes it feasible to use the model as a basis for risk assessments of low level long-term irradiation.

  6. Integrated modelling for assessing the risk of TCE groundwater contamination to human and surface water ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKnight, Ursula S.; Funder, Simon Goltermann; Finkel, Michael;

    2009-01-01

    management tools designed to work with sparse data sets from preliminary site assessments are needed which can explicitly link contaminant point sources with groundwater, surface water and ecological impacts. Here, a novel integrated modelling approach was employed for evaluating the impact of a TCE...... groundwater plume, located in an area with protected drinking water interests, to human health and surface water ecosystems. This is accomplished by coupling the system dynamics-based decision support system CARO-Plus to the aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX via an analytical volatilisation model for the stream...... of “effective” parameters in groundwater transport modelling. The initial modelling results indicate that TCE contaminant plumes with μgL-1 concentrations entering surface water systems do not pose a significant risk to either human or ecological receptors. The current work will be extended to additional...

  7. Large-scale model-based assessment of deer-vehicle collision risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torsten Hothorn

    Full Text Available Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer-vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on >74,000 deer-vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer-vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer-vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment-deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new "deer-vehicle collision index" for deer management. We show that the risk of deer-vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer-vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer-vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and defining

  8. Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

    2012-09-01

    Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to

  9. Groundwater Nitrate Contamination Risk Assessment: A Comparison of Parametric Systems and Simulation Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Sacco

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater nitrate contamination is a source of rising concern that has been faced through the introduction of several regulations in different countries. However the methodologies used in the definition of Nitrate Vulnerable Zones are not included in the regulations. The aim of this work was to compare different methodologies, used to asses groundwater nitrate contamination risks, based on parametric systems or simulation modelling. The work was carried out in Piedmont, Italy, in an area characterised by intensive animal husbandry, high N load, a shallow water table and a coarse type of sub-soil sediments. Only N loads from agricultural non-point sources were considered. Different methodologies with different level of information have been compared to determine the groundwater nitrate contamination risk assessment: N load, IPNOA index, the intrinsic contamination risk from nitrates, leached N and N concentration of the soil solution estimated by the simulation model. The good correlation between the IPNOA index and the intrinsic nitrate contamination risk revealed that the parameters that describe the soil in this area did not lead to a different classification of the parcels. The intrinsic nitrate contamination risk was greatly influenced by N fertilisation, however the effect of the soils increased the variability in comparison to the IPNOA index. The leached N and N concentration in the leaching were closely correlated. The dilution effect of percolated water was almost negligible. Both methodologies were slightly correlated to the N fertilisation and the two indexes. The correlations related to the intrinsic nitrate contamination risk was higher than those related to IPNOA, and this means that the effect of taking into account soil parameters increases the correlation to the prediction of the simulation model.

  10. Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

    2008-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

  11. [Joint application of mathematic models in assessing the residual risk of hepatitis C virus transmitted through blood transfusion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xun; Jia, Yao; Xie, Yun-zheng; Li, Xiu-mei; Liu, Xiao-ying; Wu, Xiao-fei

    2011-09-01

    The practicable and effective methods for residual risk assessment on transfusion-transmitted disease was to establish the mathematic models. Based on the characteristics of the repeat donors which donated their blood on a regular base, a model of sero-conversion during the interval of donations was established to assess the incidence of the repeat donors. Based on the characteristics of the prevalence in the population, a model of 'prevalence increased with the age of the donor' was established to assess the incidence of those first-time donors. And based on the impact of the windows period through blood screening program, a model of residual risk associated with the incidence and the length of the windows period was established to assess the residual risk of blood transfusion. In this paper, above said 3 kinds of mathematic models were jointly applied to assess the residual risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) which was transmitted through blood transfusion in Shanghai, based on data from the routine blood collection and screening program. All the anti-HCV unqualified blood donations were confirmed before assessment. Results showed that the residual risk of HCV transmitted through blood transfusion during Jan. 1(st), 2007 to Dec. 31(st), 2008 in Shanghai was 1:101 000. Data showed that the results of residual risk assessment with mathematic models was valuable. The residual risk of transfusion-transmitted HCV in Shanghai was at a safe level, according to the results in this paper.

  12. Chemometrics models for assessment of oxidative stress risk in chrome-electroplating workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zendehdel, Rezvan; Shetab-Boushehri, Seyed Vahid; Azari, Mansoor R; Hosseini, Vajihe; Mohammadi, Hamidreza

    2015-04-01

    Oxidative stress is the main cause of hexavalant chromium-induced damage in chrome electroplating workers. The main goal of this study is toxicity analysis and the possibility of toxicity risk categorizing in the chrome electroplating workers based on oxidative stress parameters as prognostic variables. We assessed blood chromium levels and biomarkers of oxidative stress such as lipid peroxidation, thiol (SH) groups and antioxidant capacity of plasma. Data were subjected to principle component analysis (PCA) and artificial neuronal network (ANN) to obtain oxidative stress pattern for chrome electroplating workers. Blood chromium levels increased from 4.42 ppb to 10.6 ppb. Induction of oxidative stress was observed by increased in lipid peroxidation (22.38 ± 10.47 μM versus 14.74 ± 4.82 μM, p < 0.0008), decreased plasma antioxidant capacity (3.17 ± 1.35 μM versus 7.74 ± 4.45 μM, p < 0.0001) and plasma total thiol (SH groups) (0.21 ± 0.07 μM versus 0.45 ± 0.41 μM, p < 0.0042) in comparison to controls. Based on the oxidative parameters, two groups were identified by PCA methods. One category is workers with the risk of oxidative stress and second group is subjects with probable risk of oxidative stress induction. ANN methods can predict oxidative-risk category for assessment of toxicity induction in chrome electroplaters. The result showed multivariate modeling can be interpreted as the induced biochemical toxicity in the workers exposed to hexavalent chromium. Different occupation groups were assessed on the basis of risk level of oxidative stress which could further justify proceeding engineering control measures.

  13. A Model-based Framework for Risk Assessment in Human-Computer Controlled Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatanaka, Iwao

    2000-01-01

    The rapid growth of computer technology and innovation has played a significant role in the rise of computer automation of human tasks in modem production systems across all industries. Although the rationale for automation has been to eliminate "human error" or to relieve humans from manual repetitive tasks, various computer-related hazards and accidents have emerged as a direct result of increased system complexity attributed to computer automation. The risk assessment techniques utilized for electromechanical systems are not suitable for today's software-intensive systems or complex human-computer controlled systems. This thesis will propose a new systemic model-based framework for analyzing risk in safety-critical systems where both computers and humans are controlling safety-critical functions. A new systems accident model will be developed based upon modem systems theory and human cognitive processes to better characterize system accidents, the role of human operators, and the influence of software in its direct control of significant system functions. Better risk assessments will then be achievable through the application of this new framework to complex human-computer controlled systems.

  14. Quantitative modeling for risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams in southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Akio; Iwahori, Jun'ichiro; Vuddhakul, Varaporn; Charernjiratragul, Wilawan; Vose, David; Osaka, Ken; Shigematsu, Mika; Toyofuku, Hajime; Yamamoto, Shigeki; Nishibuchi, Mitsuaki; Kasuga, Fumiko

    2008-05-10

    A risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams (Anadara granosa) consumed in southern Thailand was conducted. This study estimated the prevalence and concentration of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in bloody clams at harvest and retail stages; and during this process, methods to detect the total and pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus were investigated. Consumption of bloody clams and cooking efficiency were studied using interviews and on-site observation of consumers. A beta-Poisson dose-response model was used to estimate probability of illness applying estimation methods for the most likely parameter values presented by USFDA. Microbial and behavioral data were analyzed by developing a stochastic model and the simulation gave a mean number of times a person would get ill with V. parahaemolyticus by consuming bloody clams at 5.6 x 10(-4)/person/year. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the fraction of people who did not boil the clams properly was the primary factor in increasing risk. This study serves as an example of how a microbiological risk assessment with limited data collection and international cooperation leads to valuable local insight.

  15. Integrated modelling for assessing the risk of groundwater contaminants to human health and surface water ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKnight, Ursula S.; Rasmussen, Jes; Funder, Simon G.

    2010-01-01

    for evaluating the impact of a TCE groundwater plume, located in an area with protected drinking water interests, to human health and surface water ecosystems. This is accomplished by coupling the system dynamicsbased decision support system CARO-Plus to the aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX via an analytical......The practical implementation of the European Water Framework Directive has resulted in an increased focus on the groundwater-surface water interaction zone. A gap exists with respect to preliminary assessment methodologies that are capable of evaluating and prioritising point sources...... volatilisation model for the stream. The model is tested on a Danish case study involving a 750 m long TCE groundwater plume discharging into a stream. The initial modelling results indicate that TCE contaminant plumes with μgL-1 concentrations entering surface water systems do not pose a significant risk...

  16. Ecological risk assessment of nonylphenol in coastal waters of China based on species sensitivity distribution model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Pei; Li, Zhengyan; Gibson, Mark; Gao, Huiwang

    2014-06-01

    Nonylphenol (NP) is an endocrine disruptor and causes feminization and carcinogenesis in various organisms. Consequently, the environmental distribution and ecological risks of NP have received wide concern. China accounts for approximately 10% of the total NP usage in the world, but the water quality criteria of NP have not been established in China and the ecological risks of this pollutant cannot be properly assessed. This study thus aims to determine the predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) of NP and to assess the ecological risks of NP in coastal waters of China with the PNEC as water quality criteria. To obtain the HC5 (hazardous concentration for 5% of biological species) and PNEC estimates, the species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) models were built with chronic toxicity data of NP on aquatic organisms screened from the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) ECOTOX database. The results showed that the PNEC for NP in freshwater and seawater was 0.48 μg L(-1) and 0.28 μg L(-1), respectively. The RQ (risk quotient) values of NP in coastal waters of China ranged from 0.01 to 69.7. About 60% of the reported areas showed a high ecological risk with an RQ value ≥ 1.00. NP therefore exists ubiquitously in coastal waters of China and it poses various risks to aquatic ecosystems in the country. This study demonstrates that the SSD methodology can provide a feasible tool for the establishment of water quality criteria for emergent new pollutants when sufficient toxicity data is available. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  18. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  19. An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used...... and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite...... assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios....

  20. A Globally Consistent Methodology for an Exposure Model for Natural Catastrophe Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Pandey, Bishwa; Saito, Keiko

    2013-04-01

    There is a high demand for the development of a globally consistent and robust exposure data model employing a top down approach, to be used in national level catastrophic risk profiling for the public sector liability. To this effect, there are currently several initiatives such as UN-ISDR Global Assessment Report (GAR) and Global Exposure Database for Global Earthquake Model (GED4GEM). However, the consistency and granularity differs from region to region, a problem that is overcome in this proposed approach using national datasets for example in Latin America and the Caribbean Region (LCR). The methodology proposed in this paper aim to produce a global open exposure dataset based upon population, country specific building type distribution and other global/economic indicators such as World Bank indices that are suitable for natural catastrophe risk modelling purposes. The output would be a GIS raster grid at approximately 1 km spatial resolution which would highlight urbaness (building typology distribution, occupancy and use) for each cell at sub national level and compatible with other global initiatives and datasets. It would make use of datasets on population, census, demographic, building data and land use/land cover which are largely available in the public domain. The resultant exposure dataset could be used in conjunction with hazard and vulnerability components to create views of risk for multiple hazards that include earthquake, flood and windstorms. The model we hope would also assist in steps towards future initiatives for open, interchangeable and compatible databases for catastrophe risk modelling. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

  1. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  2. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  3. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria....... Seven studies had high quality, 35 moderate and the rest poor quality. The accuracy of multivariate models was higher for pre-school children than for schoolchildren/adolescents. However, the models had seldom been validated in independent populations, making their accuracy uncertain. Of the single...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited...

  4. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Christian; Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe; de Koeijer, Aline; Sheridan, Hazel; Saegerman, Claude; Selhorst, Thomas; Arnold, Mark; Polak, Miroslaw P; Calavas, Didier

    2010-06-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong decline in BSE risk was observed for all countries that applied control measures during the 1990s, starting at different points in time in the different countries. Results were compared with the type and date of the BSE control measures implemented between 1990 and 2001 in each country. Results show that a ban on the feeding of meat and bone meal (MBM) to cattle alone was not sufficient to eliminate BSE. The fading out of the epidemic started shortly after the complementary measures targeted at controlling the risk in MBM. Given the long incubation period, it is still too early to estimate the additional effect of the ban on the feeding of animal protein to all farm animals that started in 2001. These results provide new insights in the risk assessment of BSE for cattle and Humans, which will especially be useful in the context of possible relaxing BSE surveillance and control measures.

  5. Computer modelling for risk assessment of emergency situations and terrorist attacks during transportation using methods of fuzzy set theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kosterev, V.V.; Boliatko, V.V.; Gusev, S.M.; Panin, M.P. [MEPhI, Moscow (Russian Federation); Averkin, A.N. [CC RAS, Moscox (Russian Federation)

    1998-07-01

    Computer software for risk assessment of transportation of important freight has been developed. It incorporates models of transport accidents, including terrorist attacks. These models use, among the others, input data of cartographic character. Geographic information system technology and electronic maps of a geographic area are involved as an instrument for handling this kind of data. Fuzzy set theory methods as well as standard methods of probability theory have been used for quantitative risk assessment. Fuzzy algebraic operations and their computer realization are discussed. Risk assessment for one particular route of railway transportation is given as an example. (author)

  6. An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

  7. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Using Cybernomic Computational Models: Tailored for Industrial Control Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL; Sheldon, Federick T. [University of Memphis; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    There are many influencing economic factors to weigh from the defender-practitioner stakeholder point-of-view that involve cost combined with development/deployment models. Some examples include the cost of countermeasures themselves, the cost of training and the cost of maintenance. Meanwhile, we must better anticipate the total cost from a compromise. The return on investment in countermeasures is essentially impact costs (i.e., the costs from violating availability, integrity and confidentiality / privacy requirements). The natural question arises about choosing the main risks that must be mitigated/controlled and monitored in deciding where to focus security investments. To answer this question, we have investigated the cost/benefits to the attacker/defender to better estimate risk exposure. In doing so, it s important to develop a sound basis for estimating the factors that derive risk exposure, such as likelihood that a threat will emerge and whether it will be thwarted. This impact assessment framework can provide key information for ranking cybersecurity threats and managing risk.

  8. Optimization of an In silico Cardiac Cell Model for Proarrhythmia Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Dutta

    2017-08-01

    concentrations both near and higher than clinical exposure, and a physiological framework to check the relationship between a metric and EAD. These findings provide a solid foundation for using in silico models for the regulatory assessment of TdP risk under the CiPA paradigm.

  9. Bayesian updating in a fault tree model for shipwreck risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landquist, H; Rosén, L; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M

    2017-03-14

    Shipwrecks containing oil and other hazardous substances have been deteriorating on the seabeds of the world for many years and are threatening to pollute the marine environment. The status of the wrecks and the potential volume of harmful substances present in the wrecks are affected by a multitude of uncertainties. Each shipwreck poses a unique threat, the nature of which is determined by the structural status of the wreck and possible damage resulting from hazardous activities that could potentially cause a discharge. Decision support is required to ensure the efficiency of the prioritisation process and the allocation of resources required to carry out risk mitigation measures. Whilst risk assessments can provide the requisite decision support, comprehensive methods that take into account key uncertainties related to shipwrecks are limited. The aim of this paper was to develop a method for estimating the probability of discharge of hazardous substances from shipwrecks. The method is based on Bayesian updating of generic information on the hazards posed by different activities in the surroundings of the wreck, with information on site-specific and wreck-specific conditions in a fault tree model. Bayesian updating is performed using Monte Carlo simulations for estimating the probability of a discharge of hazardous substances and formal handling of intrinsic uncertainties. An example application involving two wrecks located off the Swedish coast is presented. Results show the estimated probability of opening, discharge and volume of the discharge for the two wrecks and illustrate the capability of the model to provide decision support. Together with consequence estimations of a discharge of hazardous substances, the suggested model enables comprehensive and probabilistic risk assessments of shipwrecks to be made.

  10. Analyzing the sensitivity of a flood risk assessment model towards its input data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glas, Hanne; Deruyter, Greet; De Maeyer, Philippe; Mandal, Arpita; James-Williamson, Sherene

    2016-11-01

    The Small Island Developing States are characterized by an unstable economy and low-lying, densely populated cities, resulting in a high vulnerability to natural hazards. Flooding affects more people than any other hazard. To limit the consequences of these hazards, adequate risk assessments are indispensable. Satisfactory input data for these assessments are hard to acquire, especially in developing countries. Therefore, in this study, a methodology was developed and evaluated to test the sensitivity of a flood model towards its input data in order to determine a minimum set of indispensable data. In a first step, a flood damage assessment model was created for the case study of Annotto Bay, Jamaica. This model generates a damage map for the region based on the flood extent map of the 2001 inundations caused by Tropical Storm Michelle. Three damages were taken into account: building, road and crop damage. Twelve scenarios were generated, each with a different combination of input data, testing one of the three damage calculations for its sensitivity. One main conclusion was that population density, in combination with an average number of people per household, is a good parameter in determining the building damage when exact building locations are unknown. Furthermore, the importance of roads for an accurate visual result was demonstrated.

  11. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models....... enables the relative importance of the different factors (i.e. degree of climate change, assets value, discount rate etc.) to be determined, thus influencing the overall output of the assessment.......Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...

  12. A comparison of risk modeling tools and a case study for human health risk assessment of volatile organic compounds in contaminated groundwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Lu; Qian, Linbo; Yan, Jingchun; Liu, Rongqin; Du, Yihua; Chen, Mengfang

    2016-01-01

    In order to promote the risk-based strategy in the investigation, assessment, and remediation of Chinese brownfield sites, the Health and Environmental Risk Assessment (HERA) software was developed. It is vital to validate the HERA model and compare the inter-model differences of HERA model against other available risk assessment tools. This paper discusses the similarities and differences between the Risk-Based Corrective Action (RBCA) Tool Kit and the HERA model by evaluating the health risk of organic contaminated groundwater sources for a chemical works in China for the first time. Consequently, the HERA and RBCA models yielded the identical results for Site-Specific Assessment Criteria (SSAC) under the commercial redevelopment. However, the HERA estimated more conservative and stringent SSACs under the residential scenario based on the different exposure calculations. The inhalation of indoor vapors was the most predominated exposure pathway for all the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) determined using the RBCA and HERA models. According to the HERA model, inhalation of chloroform may cause the highest unacceptable carcinogenic risk at 2.31 × 10(-3) under the residential scenario. Therefore, it is recommended that a risk-based remedial strategy be developed to ensure the safe and sustainable redevelopment of the site.

  13. Microbiological risk assessment models for partitioning and mixing during food handling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauta, Maarten J

    2005-04-15

    To describe the transmission dynamics of a pathogen over a food pathway in quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), several types of processes need to be modelled. Next to microbial processes like bacterial growth and inactivation, four food handling processes can be identified. Among these are partitioning and mixing of the food product. With these processes, the (sizes of) units of food product are modified and the pathogenic cells are reallocated over the units, so that the prevalence of contaminated units and the number of cells per unit may change. Usually, simple models of these processes are applied in QMRA food chain models. These models assume independence of units, random homogeneous distribution of cells (for partitioning) and equal contribution of units (for mixing), which is often not realistic in food and food handling processes. In this paper, these assumptions are abandoned. The use of multivariate distributions is proposed to include the effect of dependence between units: the Multinomial distribution for partitioning and the Dirichlet distribution for mixing. Effects of cell clustering and/or unequal sizes of units formed by partitioning or contributing to mixing are incorporated. Some algorithms are derived that are easily implemented in spreadsheet models that simulate food production and preparation. Some examples show the effect of more realistic modelling by implementation of these algorithms on the prevalence and the probability distribution of the number of pathogens per unit of food product. In general, cell clustering will result in lower prevalences, but higher levels of contamination in contaminated food units. With the methods presented, these effects can be quantified. Difficulties in estimating the model parameters and the impact of implementation of the proposed methods on risk estimates in QMRA are discussed.

  14. Assessment of soil erosion risk in Komering watershed, South Sumatera, using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salsabilla, A.; Kusratmoko, E.

    2017-07-01

    Changes in land use watershed led to environmental degradation. Estimated loss of soil erosion is often difficult due to some factors such as topography, land use, climate and human activities. This study aims to predict soil erosion hazard and sediment yield using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model. The SWAT was chosen because it can simulate the model with limited data. The study area is Komering watershed (806,001 Ha) in South Sumatera Province. There are two factors land management intervention: 1) land with agriculture, and 2) land with cultivation. These factors selected in accordance with the regulations of spatial plan area. Application of the SWAT demonstrated that the model can predict surface runoff, soil erosion loss and sediment yield. The erosion risk for each watershed can be classified and predicted its changes based on the scenarios which arranged. In this paper, we also discussed the relationship between the distribution of erosion risk and watershed's characteristics in a spatial perspective.

  15. Application of predictive modelling techniques in industry: from food design up to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Lambert, Ronald J W

    2008-11-30

    In this communication, examples of applications of predictive microbiology in industrial contexts (i.e. Nestlé and Unilever) are presented which cover a range of applications in food safety from formulation and process design to consumer safety risk assessment. A tailor-made, private expert system, developed to support safe product/process design assessment is introduced as an example of how predictive models can be deployed for use by non-experts. Its use in conjunction with other tools and software available in the public domain is discussed. Specific applications of predictive microbiology techniques are presented relating to investigations of either growth or limits to growth with respect to product formulation or process conditions. An example of a probabilistic exposure assessment model for chilled food application is provided and its potential added value as a food safety management tool in an industrial context is weighed against its disadvantages. The role of predictive microbiology in the suite of tools available to food industry and some of its advantages and constraints are discussed.

  16. Application of GIS and modelling in health risk assessment for urban road mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Van-Hieu; Le, Xuan-Quynh; Pham, Ngoc-Ho; Hens, Luc

    2013-08-01

    Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributes to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer and physical injuries. This paper presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Haiphong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and geographic information system approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-referenced data. The study shows that health burdens due to particulate matter in Haiphong include 1,200 extra deaths for the situation in 2007. This figure can double by 2020 as the result of the fast economic development the city pursues. In addition, 51,000 extra hospital admissions and more than 850,000 restricted activity days are expected by 2020.

  17. Advantages of toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic modelling in aquatic ecotoxicology and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashauer, Roman; Escher, Beate I

    2010-11-01

    Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) models simulate the processes that lead to toxicity at the level of organisms over time. These dynamic simulation models quantify toxicity, but more importantly they also provide a conceptual framework to better understand the causes for variability in different species' sensitivity to the same compound as well as causes for different toxicity of different compounds to the same species. Thus TK-TD models bring advantages for very diverse ecotoxicological questions as they can address two major challenges: the large number of species that are potentially affected and the large number of chemicals of concern. The first important benefit of TK-TD models is the role that they can play to formalize established knowledge about toxicity of compounds, sensitivity of organisms, organism recovery times and carry-over toxicity. The second important aspect of TK-TD models is their ability to simulate temporal aspects of toxicity which makes them excellent extrapolation tools for risk assessment of fluctuating or pulsed exposures to pollutants. We provide a general introduction to the concept of TK-TD modelling for environmental scientists and discuss opportunities as well as current limitations.

  18. Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Model for personalized prognostic risk assessment in colon carcinomatosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stojadinovic, Alexander; Nissan, Aviram; Eberhardt, John; Chua, Terence C; Pelz, Joerg O W; Esquivel, Jesus

    2011-02-01

    Multimodality therapy in selected patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis is gaining acceptance. Treatment-directing decision support tools are needed to individualize care and select patients best suited for cytoreductive surgery +/- hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS +/- HIPEC). The purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model that could support surgical decisions in patients with colon carcinomatosis. Fifty-three patients were enrolled in a prospective study collecting 31 clinical-pathological, treatment-related, and outcome data. The population was characterized by disease presentation, performance status, extent of peritoneal cancer (Peritoneal Cancer Index, PCI), primary tumor histology, and nodal staging. These preoperative parameters were analyzed using step-wise machine-learned Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to develop a predictive model for overall survival (OS) in patients considered for CRS +/- HIPEC. Area-under-the-curve from receiver-operating-characteristics curves of OS predictions was calculated to determine the model's positive and negative predictive value. Model structure defined three predictors of OS: severity of symptoms (performance status), PCI, and ability to undergo CRS +/- HIPEC. Patients with PCI 20, who were not considered surgical candidates. Cross validation of the BBN model robustly classified OS (area-under-the-curve = 0.71). The model's positive predictive value and negative predictive value are 63.3 per cent and 68.3 per cent, respectively. This exploratory study supports the utility of Bayesian classification for developing decision support tools, which assess case-specific relative risk for a given patient for oncological outcomes based on clinically relevant classifiers of survival. Further prospective studies to validate the BBN model-derived prognostic assessment tool are warranted.

  19. How TK-TD and population models for aquatic macrophytes could support the risk assessment for plant protection products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hommen, Udo; Schmitt, Walter; Heine, Simon; Brock, Theo Cm; Duquesne, Sabine; Manson, Phil; Meregalli, Giovanna; Ochoa-Acuña, Hugo; van Vliet, Peter; Arts, Gertie

    2016-01-01

    This case study of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) workshop MODELINK demonstrates the potential use of mechanistic effects models for macrophytes to extrapolate from effects of a plant protection product observed in laboratory tests to effects resulting from dynamic exposure on macrophyte populations in edge-of-field water bodies. A standard European Union (EU) risk assessment for an example herbicide based on macrophyte laboratory tests indicated risks for several exposure scenarios. Three of these scenarios are further analyzed using effect models for 2 aquatic macrophytes, the free-floating standard test species Lemna sp., and the sediment-rooted submerged additional standard test species Myriophyllum spicatum. Both models include a toxicokinetic (TK) part, describing uptake and elimination of the toxicant, a toxicodynamic (TD) part, describing the internal concentration-response function for growth inhibition, and a description of biomass growth as a function of environmental factors to allow simulating seasonal dynamics. The TK-TD models are calibrated and tested using laboratory tests, whereas the growth models were assumed to be fit for purpose based on comparisons of predictions with typical growth patterns observed in the field. For the risk assessment, biomass dynamics are predicted for the control situation and for several exposure levels. Based on specific protection goals for macrophytes, preliminary example decision criteria are suggested for evaluating the model outputs. The models refined the risk indicated by lower tier testing for 2 exposure scenarios, while confirming the risk associated for the third. Uncertainties related to the experimental and the modeling approaches and their application in the risk assessment are discussed. Based on this case study and the assumption that the models prove suitable for risk assessment once fully evaluated, we recommend that 1) ecological scenarios be developed that are also

  20. Landslide risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  1. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... for prediction purposes, as measured until now in the literature, is at best questionable in schoolchildren, adolescents and adults. That is not to say these additional factors should not be assessed to help understand the strength of their associations with the disease experience in a particular patient......, and aid in the development of an individualized and targeted preventive and management plan....

  2. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric L.; Minard, Charles; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary H.; Walton, Marlei E.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.; Saile, Lynn G.; Lopez, Vilma; Butler, Douglas J.; Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and its use as a risk assessment and decision support tool for human space flight missions. The IMM is an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to NASA crew health and mission planners. It is intended to assist in optimizing crew health, safety and mission success within the constraints of the space flight environment for in-flight operations. It uses ISS data to assist in planning for the Exploration Program and it is not intended to assist in post flight research. The IMM was used to update Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) for the purpose of updating forecasts for the conditions requiring evacuation (EVAC) or Loss of Crew Life (LOC) for the ISS. The IMM validation approach includes comparison with actual events and involves both qualitative and quantitaive approaches. The results of these comparisons are reviewed. Another use of the IMM is to optimize the medical kits taking into consideration the specific mission and the crew profile. An example of the use of the IMM to optimize the medical kits is reviewed.

  3. New approach to risk assessment of central neurotoxicity induced by 1-bromopropane using animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fueta, Yukiko; Ishidao, Toru; Ueno, Susumu; Yoshida, Yasuhiro; Kunugita, Naoki; Hori, Hajime

    2007-03-01

    1-Bromopropane (1-BP) induces central as well as peripheral neurotoxicity in workers. We have reported the dysfunction of feedback inhibition (i.e. disinhibition) in the rat hippocampus following exposure to 1-BP at concentrations of 1500 and 700 ppm. For risk assessment, we studied disinhibition of the CA1 region and the dentate gyrus in hippocampal slices obtained from control and 1-BP-exposed (200 and 400 ppm) rats, and determined the bromide concentration in the brain. Granule cell disinhibition was observed after inhalation exposure to 400 ppm 1-BP for 8 or 12 weeks, suggesting that the dentate gyrus was more sensitive than the CA1 region to 1-BP exposure. The lowest observed adverse effect level and the no observed adverse effect level of 1-BP inhalation for disinhibition were 400 and 200 ppm, respectively. The concentration of bromides in the brain increased from 2.9+/-1.5 to 85.0+/-25.4 microg/g-wet brain at week 4 of 400 ppm inhalation, and no further increase was observed even when the exposure period was extended for up to 12 weeks. The relationship between total dose (ppm-h) and the exposure concentration of 1-BP was investigated at different exposure concentrations. Disinhibition and death by inhalation depended on the total dose, and their occurrence appeared earlier as the exposure concentration increased. The results demonstrated a novel model for risk assessment of central neurotoxicity induced by 1-BP inhalation.

  4. A probabilistic model for silver bioaccumulation in aquatic systems and assessment of human health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warila, J; Batterman, S; Passino-Reader, D R

    2001-02-01

    Silver (Ag) is discharged in wastewater effluents and is also a component in a proposed secondary water disinfectant. A steady-state model was developed to simulate bioaccumulation in aquatic biota and assess ecological and human health risks. Trophic levels included phytoplankton, invertebrates, brown trout, and common carp. Uptake routes included water, food, or sediment. Based on an extensive review of the literature, distributions were derived for most inputs for use in Monte Carlo simulations. Three scenarios represented ranges of dilution and turbidity. Compared with the limited field data available, median estimates of Ag in carp (0.07-2.1 micrograms/g dry weight) were 0.5 to 9 times measured values, and all measurements were within the predicted interquartile range. Median Ag concentrations in biota were ranked invertebrates > phytoplankton > trout > carp. Biotic concentrations were highest for conditions of low dilution and low turbidity. Critical variables included Ag assimilation efficiency, specific feeding rate, and the phytoplankton bioconcentration factor. Bioaccumulation of Ag seems unlikely to result in toxicity to aquatic biota and humans consuming fish. Although the highest predicted Ag concentrations in water (> 200 ng/L) may pose chronic risks to early survival and development of salmonids and risks of argyria to subsistence fishers, these results occur under highly conservative conditions.

  5. From home range dynamics to population cycles: validation and realism of a common vole population model for pesticide risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Magnus

    2013-04-01

    Despite various attempts to establish population models as standard tools in pesticide risk assessment, population models still receive limited acceptance by risk assessors and authorities in Europe. A main criticism of risk assessors is that population models are often not, or not sufficiently, validated. Hence the realism of population-level risk assessments conducted with such models remains uncertain. We therefore developed an individual-based population model for the common vole, Microtus arvalis, and demonstrate how population models can be validated in great detail based on published data. The model is developed for application in pesticide risk assessment, therefore, the validation covers all areas of the biology of the common vole that are relevant for the analysis of potential effects and recovery after application of pesticides. Our results indicate that reproduction, survival, age structure, spatial behavior, and population dynamics reproduced from the model are comparable to field observations. Also interannual population cycles, which are frequently observed in field studies of small mammals, emerge from the population model. These cycles were shown to be caused by the home range behavior and dispersal. As observed previously in the field, population cycles in the model were also stronger for longer breeding season length. Our results show how validation can help to evaluate the realism of population models, and we discuss the importance of taking field methodology and resulting bias into account. Our results also demonstrate how population models can help to test or understand biological mechanisms in population ecology.

  6. Testing a model-driven Geographical Information System for risk assessment during an effusive volcanic crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew; Latutrie, Benjamin; Andredakis, Ioannis; De Groeve, Tom; Langlois, Eric; van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin; Del Negro, Ciro; Favalli, Massimiliano; Fujita, Eisuke; Kelfoun, Karim; Rongo, Rocco

    2016-04-01

    RED-SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modeling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. It is an informal working group that has evolved around the philosophy of combining global scientific resources, in the realm of physical volcanology, remote sensing and modeling, to better define and limit uncertainty. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. The main recommendation of the workshop in terms of modeling was that there is a pressing need for "real-time input of reliable Time-Averaged Discharge Rate (TADR) data with regular up-dates of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) if modeling is to be effective; the DEMs can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community." We thus set up a test to explore (i) which model source terms are needed, (ii) how they can be provided and updated, and (iii) how can models be run and applied in an ensemble approach. The test used two hypothetical effusive events in the Chaîne des Puys (Auvergne, France), for which a prototype Geographical Information System (GIS) was set up to allow loss assessment during an effusive crisis. This system drew on all immediately available data for population, land use, communications, utility and building-type. After defining lava flow model source terms (vent location, effusion rate, lava chemistry, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity), five operational lava flow emplacement models were run (DOWNFLOW, FLOWGO, LAVASIM, MAGFLOW and VOLCFLOW) to produce a projection for likelihood of impact for all pixels within the area covered by the GIS, based on agreement between models. The test thus aimed not to assess the model output, but instead to examine overlapping output. Next, inundation maps and damage reports for impacted zones were produced. The exercise identified several

  7. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor.

  8. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  9. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  10. Using the Bayesian network relative risk model risk assessment process to evaluate management alternatives for the South River and upper Shenandoah River, Virginia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johns, Annie F; Graham, Scarlett E; Harris, Meagan J; Markiewicz, April J; Stinson, Jonah M; Landis, Wayne G

    2017-01-01

    We have conducted a series of regional scale risk assessments using the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) to evaluate the efficacy of 2 remediation options in the reduction of risks to the South River and upper Shenandoah River study area. The 2 remediation options were 1) bank stabilization (BST) and 2) the implementation of best management practices for agriculture (AgBMPs) to reduce Hg input in to the river. Eight endpoints were chosen to be part of the risk assessment, based on stakeholder input. Although Hg contamination was the original impetus for the site being remediated, multiple chemical and physical stressors were evaluated in this analysis. Specific models were built that incorporated the changes expected from AgBMP and BST and were based on our previous research. Changes in risk were calculated, and sensitivity and influence analyses were conducted on the models. The assessments indicated that AgBMP would only slightly change risk in the study area but that negative impacts were also unlikely. Bank stabilization would reduce risk to Hg for the smallmouth bass and belted kingfisher and increase risk to abiotic water quality endpoints. However, if care were not taken to prevent loss of nesting habitat to belted kingfisher, an increase in risk to that species would occur. Because Hg was only one of several stressors contributing to risk, the change in risk depended on the specific endpoint. Sensitivity analysis provided a list of variables to be measured as part of a monitoring program. Influence analysis provided the range of maximum and minimum risk values for each endpoint and remediation option. This research demonstrates the applicability of ecological risk assessment and specifically the BN-RRM as part of a long-term adaptive management scheme for managing contaminated sites. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:100-114. © 2016 SETAC.

  11. Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bladbjerg, Else-Marie; Jespersen, Jørgen

    2014-01-01

    -reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards...

  12. Atmospheric aerosol dispersion models and their applications to environmental risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Mazur

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Numerical models of dispersion of atmospheric pollutants are widely used to forecast the spread of contaminants in the air and to analyze the effects of this phenomenon. The aim of the study is to investigate the possibilities and the quality of diagnosis and prediction of atmospheric transport of aerosols in the air using the dispersion model of atmospheric pollutants, developed at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM in Warsaw. Material and methods. A model of the dispersion of atmospheric pollutants, linked with meteorological models in a diagnostic mode, was used to simulate the transport of the cloud of aerosols released during the crash near the town of Ożydiw (Ukraine and of volcanic ash – during the volcanic eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland. Results. Possible directions of dispersion of pollutants in the air and its concentration in the atmosphere and deposition to the soil were assessed. The analysis of temporal variability of concentrations of aerosols in the atmosphere confirmed that the model developed at IMWM is an effective tool for diagnosis of air quality in the area of Poland as well as for determination of exposure duration to the aerosol clouds for different weather scenarios. Conclusions. The results are a confirmation of the thesis, that because in the environmental risk assessment, an important element is not only current information on the level of pollution concentrations, but also the time of exposure to pollution and forecast of these elements, and consequently the predicted effects on man or the environment in general; so it is necessary to use forecasting tools, similar to presented application. The dispersion model described in the paper is an operational tool for description, analysis and forecasting of emergency situations in case of emissions of hazardous substances.

  13. Model Uncertainty via the Integration of Hormesis and LNT as the Default in Cancer Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward J. Calabrese

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available On June 23, 2015, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC issued a formal notice in the Federal Register that it would consider whether “it should amend its ‘Standards for Protection Against Radiation’ regulations from the linear non-threshold (LNT model of radiation protection to the hormesis model.” The present commentary supports this recommendation based on the (1 flawed and deceptive history of the adoption of LNT by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS in 1956; (2 the documented capacity of hormesis to make more accurate predictions of biological responses for diverse biological end points in the low-dose zone; (3 the occurrence of extensive hormetic data from the peer-reviewed biomedical literature that revealed hormetic responses are highly generalizable, being independent of biological model, end point measured, inducing agent, level of biological organization, and mechanism; and (4 the integration of hormesis and LNT models via a model uncertainty methodology that optimizes public health responses at 10−4. Thus, both LNT and hormesis can be integratively used for risk assessment purposes, and this integration defines the so-called “regulatory sweet spot.”

  14. USE OF CHOSEN DISCRIMINATION MODELS IN THE ASSESSMENT OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN MEAT PROCESSING ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zielińska-Chmielewska

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study is to assess the fi nancial situation from the point of view of the bankruptcy risk of selected meat processing enterprises in Poland, such as: PKM Duda S.A., Indykpol S.A., Pamapol S.A. and Tarczyński S.A. For the analysis, 750 fi nancial data were collected, by means of which fi ve fi nancial variables in the fi rst model, four variables – in the second, the fourth and the fi fth model and six variables in the second model, were generated. The main criteria for the selection of the companies for testing were: carrying out the main business in the area of meat processing (companies belonging to group 15.11 according to the PKD classifi cation, legal status: limited liability company or joint stock company, which employs more than 50 people, and the availability of fi nancial data. The analysis shows that all surveyed meat industry companies were in a very good fi nancial situation. In 2008–2009 and 2012–2013 the most diffi cult fi nancial situation and, consequently, the greatest threat of bankruptcy, was faced by Pamapol S.A. Extremely sensitive to the deteriorating situation of surveyed companies, and thus to the most common threat of bankruptcy, proved to be: D. Wierzby model (for all companies, in 2009 and Pamapol S.A. (in 2008 and D. Hadasik model (Pamapol S.A. in the years 2008–2009

  15. Breast cancer risk assessment by Gail Model in women of Baghdad

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Salam Hussein Ewaid

    2016-09-22

    Sep 22, 2016 ... b College of Health and Medical Technology, Middle Technical University, Iraq ... Brest cancer risk was calculated using the BCR Assessment Tool (BCRAT) of the ... physical activity, type of food and family history of BC are.

  16. Relationship between risk assessment and payment models in Swedish Public Dental Service

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To a) compare risk categories in patients selecting a capitation payment (CP) model with those in fee-for-service (FFS), b) determine the 3-year caries increment in the two groups, and c) compare the amount of delivered preventive care in the two groups. METHODS: A comprehensive risk...... the dental records. RESULTS: More patients in the low risk category preferred the CP model (74% vs. 26%) while >80% with high risk selected FFS. The baseline caries level was significantly higher in the FFS group as well as the 3-year caries increment (1.6 vs. 0.8 DFS: p ... preventive care delivered to each patient was generally lower in the FFS model; it was most frequent among patients with "some" risk in the CP model (83.8%) while the lowest delivery rates were found among low risk patients in the FFS system (32.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Young adults in public dental care with low...

  17. MATILDA Version 2: Rough Earth TIALD Model for Laser Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Hilly Terrain - Part I

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-13

    AFRL-RH-FS-TR-2017-0009 MATILDA Version-2: Rough Earth TIALD Model for Laser Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Hilly Terrain – Part I Paul K...Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Hilly Terrain – Part I ii Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. PA Case No: TSRL-PA-2017-0169...any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN

  18. Development of Regression Models for Assessing Fire Risk of Some Indian Coals

    OpenAIRE

    Devidas S. Nimaje; D.P. Tripathy; Santosh Kumar Nanda

    2013-01-01

    Spontaneous combustion of coals leading to mine fires is a major problem in Indian coal mines that creates serious safety and mining risk. A number of experimental techniques based on petrological, thermal and oxygen avidity studies have been used for assessing the spontaneous heating liability of coals all over the world. Crossing point temperature (CPT) is one of the most common methods in India to assess the fire risk of coal so that appropriate strategies and effective action plans could...

  19. Risk factors for mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis and assessment of prognostic models: A population-based study

    OpenAIRE

    Pang, Jack XQ; Ross, Erin; Borman, Meredith A; Zimmer, Scott; Gilaad G. Kaplan; Heitman, Steven J.; Swain, Mark G.; Burak, Kelly; Quan, Hude; Myers, Robert P

    2015-01-01

    The poor outcomes and high mortality risk associated with alcoholic hepatitis (AH) have prompted the search for predictive risk factors that could guide management and treatment, and facilitate risk stratification in clinical trials. Presently, several prognostic models for AH are available, all of which have helped physicians decide which therapies to initiate or to assess a given patient’s response to treatment. This retrospective study, conducted at a Canadian tertiary care centre, aimed t...

  20. A Risk Assessment Example for Soil Invertebrates Using Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reed, Melissa; Alvarez, Tania; Chelinho, Sonia

    2016-01-01

    Current risk assessment methods for measuring the toxicity of plant protection products (PPPs) on soil invertebrates use standardized laboratory conditions to determine acute effects on mortality and sublethal effects on reproduction. If an unacceptable risk is identified at the lower tier, popul...

  1. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Risk Assessment Related tests: Lipid Profile , VLDL Cholesterol , hs-CRP , Lp(a) Overview | Common Questions | Related Pages What ... cardiac risk include: High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) : Studies have shown that measuring CRP with a ...

  2. The role of ecological models in linking ecological risk assessment to ecosystem services in agroecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galic, Nika; Schmolke, Amelie; Forbes, Valery; Baveco, Hans; van den Brink, Paul J

    2012-01-15

    Agricultural practices are essential for sustaining the human population, but at the same time they can directly disrupt ecosystem functioning. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) aims to estimate possible adverse effects of human activities on ecosystems and their parts. Current ERA practices, however, incorporate very little ecology and base the risk estimates on the results of standard tests with several standard species. The main obstacles for a more ecologically relevant ERA are the lack of clear protection goals and the inherent complexity of ecosystems that is hard to approach empirically. In this paper, we argue that the ecosystem services framework offers an opportunity to define clear and ecologically relevant protection goals. At the same time, ecological models provide the tools to address ecological complexity to the degree needed to link measurement endpoints and ecosystem services, and to quantify service provision and possible adverse effects from human activities. We focus on the ecosystem services relevant for agroecosystem functioning, including pollination, biocontrol and eutrophication effects and present modeling studies relevant for quantification of each of the services. The challenges of the ecosystem services approach are discussed as well as the limitations of ecological models in the context of ERA. A broad, multi-stakeholder dialog is necessary to aid the definition of protection goals in terms of services delivered by ecosystems and their parts. The need to capture spatio-temporal dynamics and possible interactions among service providers pose challenges for ecological models as a basis for decision making. However, we argue that both fields are advancing quickly and can prove very valuable in achieving more ecologically relevant ERA. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Accidental benzene release risk assessment in an urban area using an atmospheric dispersion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truong, Son C. H.; Lee, Myong-In; Kim, Ganghan; Kim, Dongmin; Park, Jong-Hwa; Choi, Sung-Deuk; Cho, Gi-Hyoug

    2016-11-01

    This study applied the American Meteorological Society and Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) to assess the risk caused by an accidental release and dispersion of the toxic chemical benzene in the vicinity of a highly populated urban area. The modeling domain encompasses the Korean megacity of Ulsan, which includes two national industrial complexes and is characterized by a complex coastal terrain. Multiple AERMOD simulations were conducted for an assumed emission scenario using background wind data from August between 2009 and 2013. The series of experiments produced the spatial accident probability patterns for different concentration levels during daytime and nighttime scenarios based on the corresponding dominant wind patterns. This study further quantifies the potential accident risk based on the number of affected individuals by combining the accident probability with the indoor and outdoor population estimates. The chemical gas dispersion characteristics depend on various local meteorological conditions, such as the land-sea breeze direction, which alternates between daytime and nighttime, and the atmospheric stability. The results reveal that benzene dispersion affects a much larger area during the nighttime owing to the presence of a nocturnal stable boundary layer with significant temperature stratification. The affected area is smaller during the daytime owing to decreased stability and enhanced vertical mixing in the boundary layer. The results include a high degree of uncertainty during the nighttime owing to weak wind speeds and the lack of a prevailing wind direction, which impact the vulnerable area. However, vulnerable areas are more effectively identified during the daytime, when more consistent meteorological conditions exist. However, the potential risk becomes much lower during the nighttime owing to a substantial reduction of the outdoor population.

  4. Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

    2016-08-01

    Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well.

  5. State of the Science: Biologically Based Modeling in Risk Assessment [Editorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    The health risk assessment from exposure to a particular agent is preferred when the assessment is based on a relevant measure of internal dose (e.g., maximal concentration of an active metabolite in target tissue) rather than simply the administered dose or exposure concentratio...

  6. Simplified risk assessment of noise induced hearing loss by means of 2 spreadsheet models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lie, Arve; Engdahl, Bo; Tambs, Kristian

    2016-11-18

    The objective of this study has been to test 2 spreadsheet models to compare the observed with the expected hearing loss for a Norwegian reference population. The prevalence rates of the Norwegian and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) definitions of hearing outcomes were calculated in terms of sex and age, 20-64 years old, for a screened (with no occupational noise exposure) (N = 18 858) and unscreened (N = 38 333) Norwegian reference population from the Nord-Trøndelag Hearing Loss Study (NTHLS). Based on the prevalence rates, 2 different spreadsheet models were constructed in order to compare the prevalence rates of various groups of workers with the expected rates. The spreadsheets were then tested on 10 different occupational groups with varying degrees of hearing loss as compared to a reference population. Hearing of office workers, train drivers, conductors and teachers differed little from the screened reference values based on the Norwegian and the NIOSH criterion. The construction workers, miners, farmers and military had an impaired hearing and railway maintenance workers and bus drivers had a mildly impaired hearing. The spreadsheet models give a valid assessment of the hearing loss. The use of spreadsheet models to compare hearing in occupational groups with that of a reference population is a simple and quick method. The results are in line with comparable hearing thresholds, and allow for significance testing. The method is believed to be useful for occupational health services in the assessment of risk of noise induced hearing loss (NIHL) and the preventive potential in groups of noise-exposed workers. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2016;29(6):991-999.

  7. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  8. Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrier, Guillaume; Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Améglio, Thierry

    2017-02-09

    Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, Juglans regia x nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The Photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (Efficiency = 0.879; RMSEP = 2.55 °C) than the Thermal model (Efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R(2)  = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter.

  9. From Global Climate Modelling to Catastrophe Modelling: a risk assessment supply chain made possible through the Willis Research Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strachan, J.; Vidale, P.-L.; Galy, H.; Scott, I.

    2012-04-01

    Using the application of simulated tropical cyclones as a case study, we will present a critical review of the end-to-end process of taking scientific research through to cat model development for the insurance industry. We will look at lessons learned, and the outlook for the supply chain developing from academic research to industry. Relying on a limited period of observed data to conduct tropical cyclone risk assessment would ignore the non-stationary nature of the climate system. Simulated tropical cyclones are extracted from multi-decadal to multi-century, high-resolution global climate model (GCM) integrations using a feature-tracking algorithm. We have found that GCMs with a horizontal resolution higher than 100km are able to realistically reproduce observed tropical cyclone numbers, location and interannual variability. Using a co-developed tropical cyclone hazard lab, we compare the hazard event-sets created from an historical tropical cyclone database alongside those created from simulated tropical cyclone databases. The simulated storm event-sets, derived from a dynamical, global model, are complementary to the existing hazard event-sets, and provide a way to explore the impact of natural variability on tropical cyclone risk. These event-sets are imported into a modular and user-friendly catastrophe model platform, which allows the various parties along the cat modelling supply chain to test sensitivities at each stage of the catastrophe modelling processes, including exploring the use of different hazard models. The interactive framework allows more transparency and intercomparison of information from very different sources (i.e. observed, dynamically simulated, statistically simulated). Our collaborative research with other members of the WRN is essential to the successful integration of the simulated tropical cyclones into the catastrophe risk assessment process. For example, we work closely with statisticians at the University of Exeter to explore

  10. A Fuzzy Set-Based Approach for Model-Based Internet-Banking System Security Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hetian; LIU Yun; HE Dequan

    2006-01-01

    A fuzzy set-based evaluation approach is demonstrated to assess the security risks for Internet-banking System. The Internet-banking system is semi-formally described using Unified Modeling Language (UML) to specify the behavior and state of the system on the base of analyzing the existing qualitative risk assessment methods. And a quantitative method based on fuzzy set is used to measure security risks of the system. A case study was performed on the WEB server of the Internet-banking System using fuzzy-set based assessment algorithm to quantitatively compute the security risk severity. The numeric result also provides a method to decide the most critical component which should arouse the system administrator enough attention to take the appropriate security measure or controls to alleviate the risk severity. The experiments show this method can be used to quantify the security properties for the Internet-banking System in practice.

  11. Model of personalised risk assessment of phytoestrogen intake based on 11 SNP in ESR1 and ESR2 genes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radoslav Zidek

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Phytoestrogens can induce biological responses in vertebrates by mimicking or modulating the action or production of endogenous hormones, and because of their structural similarity with estradiol they have the ability to cause estrogenic or anti-estrogenic effects. Risk assessment of phytoestrogens intake may therefore provide important information useful in the adjustment of nutrients composition, as one of nutrigenomics approaches. Proper risk assessment is an essential part of good nutrient composition. The current risk assessment procedures does use an additive effect of genes, but the accumulation of relevant factors do not count with the distribution of risk in the European population. A combination of approaches based on genetic score, along with the use of the data bases like 1000 genomes and dbSNP is a powerful tool for population risk modelling that would provide reasonable results without needs of as testing a representative number of individual genetic profiles.

  12. THE APPLICABILITY OF THE EDMISTER MODEL FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF CREDIT RISK IN CROATIAN SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danijela Milos Sprcic

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the applicability of the Edmister model for the assessment of credit risk in small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs was examined by testing the hypothesis that the Edmister model is applicable for predicting financial difficulties of SMEs in Croatia. Data from a data base of financial reports of SMEs in Croatia managed by FINA, as well as internal data and records of one of the major banks in Croatia were used. Data of 822 enterprises were collected and analysed. The Edmister Z-score was calculated for all 822 SMEs and finally only enterprises with the Edmister Z-score lower than 0.47 or higher than 0.53 (a total of 760 enterprises were selected to the final research sample. A method of classification analysis and compliance measurement Cohen’s Kappa were used for testing the research hypothesis. On the basis of the research results, it can be concluded that the Edmister model is not applicable for predicting financial difficulties of SMEs in Croatia.

  13. Family psychosocial risk screening guided by the Pediatric Psychosocial Preventative Health Model (PPPHM) using the Psychosocial Assessment Tool (PAT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazak, Anne E; Schneider, Stephanie; Didonato, Stephen; Pai, Ahna L H

    2015-05-01

    Although families of children with cancer and other serious medical conditions have documented psychosocial needs, the systematic identification of needs and delivery of evidence-based care remain challenges. Screening for multifaceted family psychosocial risk is a means by which psychosocial treatment needs for pediatric patients and their families can be identified in an effective and inclusive manner. The Pediatric Psychosocial Preventative Health Model (PPPHM) is a model that can guide systematic assessment of family psychosocial risk. The Psychosocial Assessment Tool (PAT) is a brief parent report screener of psychosocial risk based on the PPPHM that can be used for families of infants through adolescents. The PPPHM and the PAT are described in this paper, along with a summary of data supporting systematic risk assessment. The PPPHM outlines three tiers of family psychosocial risk - Universal (low), Targeted (medium), and Clinical (high). The PAT is a validated measure of psychosocial risk. Scores on the PAT, derived from multiple sites and disease conditions, map on to the PPPHM with indications that one-half to two-thirds of families score at the Universal level of risk based on the PAT. The PAT is a unique screener of psychosocial risk, both in terms of its breadth and underlying model (PPPHM), and its length and format. As an example of a means by which families can be screened early in the treatment process, PAT scores and corresponding PPPHM levels can provide direction for the delivery of evidence-based psychosocial care.

  14. AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling

    2014-08-01

    The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of "chemicals of concern" for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  16. Comparison of three fish bioaccumulation models for ecological and human risk assessment and validation with field data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smitkova, H.; Huijbregts, M.A.J.; Hendriks, A.J.

    2005-01-01

    This article compares two bioconcentration Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships ( QSARs) for fish applied in human risk assessments with the mechanistic bioaccumulation model OMEGA and field data. It was found that all models are virtually similar up to a Kow of 10(6). For substances with a

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment model for allergens in food: sensitivity analysis of the minimum eliciting dose and food consumption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kruizinga, A.G.; Briggs, D.; Crevel, R.W.R.; Knulst, A.C.; Bosch, L.M.C.v.d.; Houben, G.F.

    2008-01-01

    Previously, TNO developed a probabilistic model to predict the likelihood of an allergic reaction, resulting in a quantitative assessment of the risk associated with unintended exposure to food allergens. The likelihood is estimated by including in the model the proportion of the population who is a

  18. Concerns about the widespread use of rodent models for human risk assessments of endocrine disruptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habert, René; Muczynski, Vincent; Grisin, Tiphany; Moison, Delphine; Messiaen, Sébastien; Frydman, René; Benachi, Alexandra; Delbes, Géraldine; Lambrot, Romain; Lehraiki, Abdelali; N'tumba-Byn, Thierry; Guerquin, Marie-Justine; Levacher, Christine; Rouiller-Fabre, Virginie; Livera, Gabriel

    2014-01-01

    Fetal testis is a major target of endocrine disruptors (EDs). During the last 20 years, we have developed an organotypic culture system that maintains the function of the different fetal testis cell types and have used this approach as a toxicological test to evaluate the effects of various compounds on gametogenesis and steroidogenesis in rat, mouse and human testes. We named this test rat, mouse and human fetal testis assay. With this approach, we compared the effects of six potential EDs ((mono-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP), cadmium, depleted uranium, diethylstilboestrol (DES), bisphenol A (BPA) and metformin) and one signalling molecule (retinoic acid (RA)) on the function of rat, mouse and human fetal testis at a comparable developmental stage. We found that the response is similar in humans and rodents for only one third of our analyses. For instance, RA and MEHP have similar negative effects on gametogenesis in the three species. For another third of our analyses, the threshold efficient concentrations that disturb gametogenesis and/or steroidogenesis differ as a function of the species. For instance, BPA and metformin have similar negative effects on steroidogenesis in human and rodents, but at different threshold doses. For the last third of our analyses, the qualitative response is species specific. For instance, MEHP and DES affect steroidogenesis in rodents, but not in human fetal testis. These species differences raise concerns about the extrapolation of data obtained in rodents to human health risk assessment and highlight the need of rigorous comparisons of the effects in human and rodent models, when assessing ED risk.

  19. Qualitative risk assessment in a data-scarce environment: a model to assess the impact of control measures on spread of African Swine Fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieland, Barbara; Dhollander, Sofie; Salman, Mo; Koenen, Frank

    2011-04-01

    In the absence of data, qualitative risk assessment frameworks have proved useful to assess risks associated with animal health diseases. As part of a scientific opinion for the European Commission (EC) on African Swine Fever (ASF), a working group of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) assessed the risk of ASF remaining endemic in Trans Caucasus Countries (TCC) and the Russian Federation (RF) and the risk of ASF becoming endemic in the EU if disease were introduced. The aim was to develop a tool to evaluate how current control or preventive measures mitigate the risk of spread and giving decision makers the means to review how strengthening of surveillance and control measures would mitigate the risk of disease spread. Based on a generic model outlining disease introduction, spread and endemicity in a region, the impact of risk mitigation measures on spread of disease was assessed for specific risk questions. The resulting hierarchical models consisted of key steps containing several sub-steps. For each step of the risk pathways risk estimates were determined by the expert group based on existing data or through expert opinion elicitation. Risk estimates were combined using two different combination matrices, one to combine estimates of independent steps and one to combine conditional probabilities. The qualitative risk assessment indicated a moderate risk that ASF will remain endemic in current affected areas in the TCC and RF and a high risk of spread to currently unaffected areas. If introduced into the EU, ASF is likely to be controlled effectively in the production sector with high or limited biosecurity. In the free range production sector, however, there is a moderate risk of ASF becoming endemic due to wild boar contact, non-compliance with animal movement bans, and difficult access to all individual pigs upon implementation of control measures. This study demonstrated the advantages of a systematic framework to assist an expert panel to carry out a

  20. Air blast circuit breaker noise and hearing loss: a multifactorial model for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBride, D I; Williams, S

    2000-04-01

    The assessment of the risk to hearing from impulse noise exposure may be a problem for the occupational physician because existing legislative and international noise exposure standards deal primarily with continuous noise, and are not valid in excess of the peak exposure limit of 200 pa (140 dB). Noise exposure in excess of this level, for example that due to firearms, is frequently perceived as harmful, but this is not necessarily the case, as impulse noise standards do, in fact, allow exposure with a maximum in the order of 6.3 kPa (170 dB). To illustrate this, a cross-sectional group of electrical transmission workers have been studied who were exposed to significant levels of impulse noise from air blast circuit breakers and firearms. Important hearing loss factors have been identified by means of a specially designed questionnaire. Using the Health & Safety Executive definition, the risk of hearing loss was determined by calculating prevalence odds ratios (ORs) for exposure to these factors. The OR for those with fewer than eight unprotected air blast circuit breaker exposures was 2.27 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01-5.08), whilst for those with more than eight exposures the OR was 2.10 (95% CI, 0.97-4.54). For firearm exposure, ORs of 1.61 (95% CI, 0.95-2.74) were noted in the medium exposure group and 2.05 (95% CI, 1.08-3.86) in the high exposure group. When all the factors were included in the model, the most significant factor was age. The study gives support to the impulse noise exposure criteria, confirming the borderline risk from air blast circuit breaker noise exposure and the relative safety of moderate gunfire exposure.

  1. Homeostatic model assessment and risk for hypertension during pregnancy: a longitudinal prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero-Gutiérrez, Gustavo; Malacara, Juan Manuel; Amador, Norma; Fierro-Martínez, César; Muñoz-Guevara, Luis Manuel; Molina-Rodríguez, Roberto

    2004-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the association between insulin resistance and hypertension during pregnancy with the homeostatic model assessment (HOMA-IR). A longitudinal prospective study was carried out. One hundred sixty normotensive pregnant women were followed from the first trimester until delivery. HOMA-IR levels were determined each trimester. Statistical analysis included one-way analysis of variance and multivariate logistic regression. At follow-up, 134 women (83.8%) remained normotensive, 18 (11.2%) developed gestational hypertension, and 8 (5%) developed preeclampsia. At first trimester, HOMA-IR levels were higher in women who developed gestational hypertension (2.1 +/- 0.2) than in women who developed preeclampsia (1.2 +/- 0.0), or remained normotensive (1.2 +/- 0.3); p < 0.01. In the logistic regression analysis, HOMA-IR levels at first trimester were statistically significant ( p = 0.03) to predict development of gestational hypertension. Our results support the use of the HOMA-IR as an alternative index for the assessment of the risk for hypertension during pregnancy.

  2. Perfluorocarbon Gas Tracer Studies to Support Risk Assessment Modeling of Critical Infrastructure Subjected to Terrorist Attacks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Terry M.; Heiser, John H.; Watson, Tom; Allwine, K Jerry; Flaherty, Julia E.

    2006-05-06

    transport models needed for risk assessment.

  3. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    OpenAIRE

    R. Fernandes; F. Braunschweig; Lourenço, F.; R. Neves

    2015-01-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable shoreline risk levels from ships has b...

  4. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    OpenAIRE

    R. Fernandes; F. Braunschweig; Lourenço, F.; R. Neves

    2016-01-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline cont...

  5. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... and toxicity. Whereas Risk Assessment (RA) aims to identify absolute risks, LCA assess potential or relative impacts. LCA is readily applicable to nanotechnologies and several studies have been carried out, but LCA faces large problems when addressing toxic impacts of nanomaterials emitted during the life...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  6. RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP IN THE ROAD SECTOR

    OpenAIRE

    V. V. Gasilov; D. V. Shitikov

    2013-01-01

    This article studies the main potential models of public-private partnership; it gives evaluation of risks for these models, considering their distribution between members of partnership. It offers the mechanism of making an optimal choice of a public-private partnership model for projects of transport system development.

  7. RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP IN THE ROAD SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Gasilov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This article studies the main potential models of public-private partnership; it gives evaluation of risks for these models, considering their distribution between members of partnership. It offers the mechanism of making an optimal choice of a public-private partnership model for projects of transport system development.

  8. Applications of contaminant fate and bioaccumulation models in assessing ecological risks of chemicals: A case study for gasoline hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Foster, Karen L.; Maddalena, Randy L.; Parkerton, Thomas F.; Mackay, Don

    2004-02-01

    Mass balance models of chemical fate and transport can be applied in ecological risk assessments for quantitative estimation of concentrations in air, water, soil and sediment. These concentrations can, in turn, be used to estimate organism exposures and ultimately internal tissue concentrations that can be compared to mode-of-action-based critical body residues that correspond to toxic effects. From this comparison, risks to the exposed organism can be evaluated. To illustrate the practical utility of fate models in ecological risk assessments of commercial products, the EQC model and a simple screening level biouptake model including three organisms, (a bird, a mammal and a fish) is applied to gasoline. In this analysis, gasoline is divided into 24 components or ''blocks'' with similar environmental fate properties that are assumed to elicit ecotoxicity via a narcotic mode of action. Results demonstrate that differences in chemical properties and mode of entry into the environment lead to profound differences in the efficiency of transport from emission to target biota. We discuss the implications of these results and insights gained into the regional fate and ecological risks associated with gasoline. This approach is particularly suitable for assessing mixtures of components that have similar modes of action. We conclude that the model-based methodologies presented are widely applicable for screening level ecological risk assessments that support effective chemicals management.

  9. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  10. The Impact of Task Performance Fraud Risk Assessment on Forensic Skills and Mindsets: A Conceptual Model

    OpenAIRE

    Popoola, Oluwatoyin Muse Johnson; Che-Ahmad, Ayoib; Samsudin, Rose Shamsiah; Yussof, Rushami Zien

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses the impact of task performance, fraud risk assessment and forensic accountants and auditors’ skills and mindsets in the Nigerian public sector. It also draws the attention of the users of public sector accountants and auditors such as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, the Independent and Corrupt Practices Commission,Special Control Unit of Money Laundering, Terrorism Financing and white collar crimes. The objective of the study is to enhance the fraud risk ass...

  11. A probabilistic modeling approach to assess human inhalation exposure risks to airborne aflatoxin B 1 (AFB 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chung-Min; Chen, Szu-Chieh

    To assess how the human lung exposure to airborne aflatoxin B 1 (AFB 1) during on-farm activities including swine feeding, storage bin cleaning, corn harvest, and grain elevator loading/unloading, we present a probabilistic risk model, appraised with empirical data. The model integrates probabilistic exposure profiles from a compartmental lung model with the reconstructed dose-response relationships based on an empirical three-parameter Hill equation model, describing AFB 1 cytotoxicity for inhibition response in human bronchial epithelial cells, to quantitatively estimate the inhalation exposure risks. The risk assessment results implicate that exposure to airborne AFB 1 may pose no significance to corn harvest and grain elevator loading/unloading activities, yet a relatively high risk for swine feeding and storage bin cleaning. Applying a joint probability function method based on exceedence profiles, we estimate that a potential high risk for the bronchial region (inhibition=56.69% with 95% confidence interval (CI): 35.05-72.87%) and bronchiolar region (inhibition=44.93% with 95% CI: 21.61 - 66.78%) is alarming during swine feeding activity. We parameterized the proposed predictive model that should encourage a risk-management framework for discussion of carcinogenic risk in occupational settings where inhalation of AFB 1-contaminated dust occurs.

  12. CSOIL 2000 an exposure model for human risk assessment of soil contamination. A model description

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brand E; Otte PF; Lijzen JPA; LER

    2007-01-01

    This RIVM description of the CSOIL 2000 model deals, for the first time, with all aspects of the model. CSOIL 2000 can be used to derive intervention values. Intervention values are calculated for contaminated soil and represent a measure for determining when contaminated soil needs to be

  13. CSOIL 2000 an exposure model for human risk assessment of soil contamination. A model description

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brand E; Otte PF; Lijzen JPA; LER

    2007-01-01

    This RIVM description of the CSOIL 2000 model deals, for the first time, with all aspects of the model. CSOIL 2000 can be used to derive intervention values. Intervention values are calculated for contaminated soil and represent a measure for determining when contaminated soil needs to be remediated

  14. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  15. Conceptual model for improving the link between exposure and effects in the aquatic risk assessment of pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boesten, J.J.T.I.; Köpp, H.; Adriaanse, P.I.; Brock, T.C.M.; Forbes, V.E.

    2007-01-01

    Assessment of risks to aquatic organisms is important in the registration procedures for pesticides in industrialised countries. This risk assessment consists of two parts: (i) assessment of effects to these organisms derived from ecotoxicological experiments (=effect assessment), and (ii) assessmen

  16. Assessment of fracture risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanis, John A. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom)], E-mail: w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); McCloskey, Eugene V. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Osteoporosis Centre, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2009-09-15

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  17. Forest fire risk assessment in Sweden using climate model data: bias correction and future changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As the risk for a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40 and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5 for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3. The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire.

  18. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  19. Methodology for Developing a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model of Spacecraft Rendezvous and Dockings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farnham, Steven J., II; Garza, Joel, Jr.; Castillo, Theresa M.; Lutomski, Michael

    2011-01-01

    In 2007 NASA was preparing to send two new visiting vehicles carrying logistics and propellant to the International Space Station (ISS). These new vehicles were the European Space Agency s (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), the Jules Verne, and the Japanese Aerospace and Explorations Agency s (JAXA) H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV). The ISS Program wanted to quantify the increased risk to the ISS from these visiting vehicles. At the time, only the Shuttle, the Soyuz, and the Progress vehicles rendezvoused and docked to the ISS. The increased risk to the ISS was from an increase in vehicle traffic, thereby, increasing the potential catastrophic collision during the rendezvous and the docking or berthing of the spacecraft to the ISS. A universal method of evaluating the risk of rendezvous and docking or berthing was created by the ISS s Risk Team to accommodate the increasing number of rendezvous and docking or berthing operations due to the increasing number of different spacecraft, as well as the future arrival of commercial spacecraft. Before the first docking attempt of ESA's ATV and JAXA's HTV to the ISS, a probabilistic risk model was developed to quantitatively calculate the risk of collision of each spacecraft with the ISS. The 5 rendezvous and docking risk models (Soyuz, Progress, Shuttle, ATV, and HTV) have been used to build and refine the modeling methodology for rendezvous and docking of spacecrafts. This risk modeling methodology will be NASA s basis for evaluating the addition of future ISS visiting spacecrafts hazards, including SpaceX s Dragon, Orbital Science s Cygnus, and NASA s own Orion spacecraft. This paper will describe the methodology used for developing a visiting vehicle risk model.

  20. A model for assessing the risk of human trafficking on a local level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colegrove, Amanda

    Human trafficking is a human rights violation that is difficult to quantify. Models for estimating the number of victims of trafficking presented by previous researchers depend on inconsistent, poor quality data. As an intermediate step to help current efforts by nonprofits to combat human trafficking, this project presents a model that is not dependent on quantitative data specific to human trafficking, but rather profiles the risk of human trafficking at the local level through causative factors. Businesses, indicated by the literature, were weighted based on the presence of characteristics that increase the likelihood of trafficking in persons. The mean risk was calculated by census tract to reveal the multiplicity of risk levels in both rural and urban settings. Results indicate that labor trafficking may be a more diffuse problem in Missouri than sex trafficking. Additionally, spatial patterns of risk remained largely the same regardless of adjustments made to the model.

  1. Modeling individual movement decisions of brown hare (Lepus europaeus) as a key concept for realistic spatial behavior and exposure: A population model for landscape-level risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinmann, Joachim U; Wang, Magnus

    2017-09-01

    Spatial behavior is of crucial importance for the risk assessment of pesticides and for the assessment of effects of agricultural practice or multiple stressors, because it determines field use, exposition, and recovery. Recently, population models have increasingly been used to understand the mechanisms driving risk and recovery or to conduct landscape-level risk assessments. To include spatial behavior appropriately in population models for use in risk assessments, a new method, "probabilistic walk," was developed, which simulates the detailed daily movement of individuals by taking into account food resources, vegetation cover, and the presence of conspecifics. At each movement step, animals decide where to move next based on probabilities being determined from this information. The model was parameterized to simulate populations of brown hares (Lepus europaeus). A detailed validation of the model demonstrated that it can realistically reproduce various natural patterns of brown hare ecology and behavior. Simulated proportions of time animals spent in fields (PT values) were also comparable to field observations. It is shown that these important parameters for the risk assessment may, however, vary in different landscapes. The results demonstrate the value of using population models to reduce uncertainties in risk assessment and to better understand which factors determine risk in a landscape context. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2299-2307. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  2. Assessing risk to birds from industrial wind energy development via paired resource selection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tricia A; Brooks, Robert P; Lanzone, Michael; Brandes, David; Cooper, Jeff; O'Malley, Kieran; Maisonneuve, Charles; Tremblay, Junior; Duerr, Adam; Katzner, Todd

    2014-06-01

    When wildlife habitat overlaps with industrial development animals may be harmed. Because wildlife and people select resources to maximize biological fitness and economic return, respectively, we estimated risk, the probability of eagles encountering and being affected by turbines, by overlaying models of resource selection for each entity. This conceptual framework can be applied across multiple spatial scales to understand and mitigate impacts of industry on wildlife. We estimated risk to Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from wind energy development in 3 topographically distinct regions of the central Appalachian Mountains of Pennsylvania (United States) based on models of resource selection of wind facilities (n = 43) and of northbound migrating eagles (n = 30). Risk to eagles from wind energy was greatest in the Ridge and Valley region; all 24 eagles that passed through that region used the highest risk landscapes at least once during low altitude flight. In contrast, only half of the birds that entered the Allegheny Plateau region used highest risk landscapes and none did in the Allegheny Mountains. Likewise, in the Allegheny Mountains, the majority of wind turbines (56%) were situated in poor eagle habitat; thus, risk to eagles is lower there than in the Ridge and Valley, where only 1% of turbines are in poor eagle habitat. Risk within individual facilities was extremely variable; on average, facilities had 11% (SD 23; range = 0-100%) of turbines in highest risk landscapes and 26% (SD 30; range = 0-85%) of turbines in the lowest risk landscapes. Our results provide a mechanism for relocating high-risk turbines, and they show the feasibility of this novel and highly adaptable framework for managing risk of harm to wildlife from industrial development.

  3. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina;

    that combines a model for the socio-economic development of cities (DANCE4WATER) with an urban flood model. The urban flood model is a 1D-2D spatially distributed hydrologic and hydraulic model that, for a given urban layout, simulates flow in the sewer system and the surface flow in the catchment (MIKE FLOOD......). The socio-economic model computes urban layouts that are transferred to the hydraulic model in the form of changes of impervious area and potential flow paths on the surface. Estimates of flood prone areas, as well as the expected annual damage due to flooding, are returned to the socio-economic model...... to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large number of scenarios that need to be considered in the planning of the development of a city. This calls...

  4. A venous thromboembolism risk assessment model for patients with Cushing's syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zilio, Marialuisa; Mazzai, Linda; Sartori, Maria Teresa; Barbot, Mattia; Ceccato, Filippo; Daidone, Viviana; Casonato, Alessandra; Saggiorato, Graziella; Noventa, Franco; Trementino, Laura; Prandoni, Paolo; Boscaro, Marco; Arnaldi, Giorgio; Scaroni, Carla

    2016-05-01

    Cushing's syndrome (CS) is associated with an incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) about ten times higher than in the normal population. The aim of our study was to develop a model for identifying CS patients at higher risk of VTE. We considered clinical, hormonal, and coagulation data from 176 active CS patients and used a forward stepwise logistic multivariate regression analysis to select the major independent risk factors for thrombosis. The risk of VTE was calculated as a 'CS-VTE score' from the sum of points of present risk factors. VTE developed in 20 patients (4 pulmonary embolism). The group of CS patients with VTE were older (p 3.15 times the normality and shortened APTT were given one point each. A CS-VTE score <2 anticipated no risk of VTE; a CS-VTE score of two mild risk (10 %); a CS-VTE score of three moderate risk (46 %); a CS-VTE score ≥4 high risk (85 %). Considering a score ≥3 as predictive of VTE, 94 % of the patients were correctly classified. A simple score helps stratify the VTE risk in CS patients and identify those who could benefit from thromboprophylaxis.

  5. Environmental Health and Aging: Activity, Exposure and Biological Models to Improve Risk Assessment and Health Promotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other public health agencies are concerned that the environmental health of America’s growing population of older adults has not been taken into consideration in current approaches to risk assessment. The reduced capacity to respo...

  6. An Actuarial Model for Assessment of Prison Violence Risk Among Maximum Security Inmates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Mark D.; Sorensen, Jon R.; Reidy, Thomas J.

    2005-01-01

    An experimental scale for the assessment of prison violence risk among maximum security inmates was developed from a logistic regression analysis involving inmates serving parole-eligible terms of varying length (n = 1,503), life-without-parole inmates (n = 960), and death-sentenced inmates who were mainstreamed into the general prison population…

  7. An Actuarial Model for Assessment of Prison Violence Risk Among Maximum Security Inmates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Mark D.; Sorensen, Jon R.; Reidy, Thomas J.

    2005-01-01

    An experimental scale for the assessment of prison violence risk among maximum security inmates was developed from a logistic regression analysis involving inmates serving parole-eligible terms of varying length (n = 1,503), life-without-parole inmates (n = 960), and death-sentenced inmates who were mainstreamed into the general prison population…

  8. Bayesian algorithm implementation in a real time exposure assessment model on benzene with calculation of associated cancer risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Gotti, Alberto; Papaloukas, Costas L; Kassomenos, Pavlos A; Pilidis, Georgios A

    2009-01-01

    The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded) determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based Pharmaco-Kinetic (PBPK) risk assessment model was developed in order to calculate the lifetime probability distribution of leukemia to the employees, fed by data obtained by the ANN model. Bayesian algorithm was involved in crucial points of both model sub compartments. The application was evaluated in two filling stations (one urban and one rural). Among several algorithms available for the development of the ANN exposure model, Bayesian regularization provided the best results and seemed to be a promising technique for prediction of the exposure pattern of that occupational population group. On assessing the estimated leukemia risk under the scope of providing a distribution curve based on the exposure levels and the different susceptibility of the population, the Bayesian algorithm was a prerequisite of the Monte Carlo approach, which is integrated in the PBPK-based risk model. In conclusion, the modeling system described herein is capable of exploiting the information collected by the environmental sensors in order to estimate in real time the personal exposure and the resulting health risk for employees of gasoline filling stations.

  9. Bayesian Algorithm Implementation in a Real Time Exposure Assessment Model on Benzene with Calculation of Associated Cancer Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavlos A. Kassomenos

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based Pharmaco-Kinetic (PBPK risk assessment model was developed in order to calculate the lifetime probability distribution of leukemia to the employees, fed by data obtained by the ANN model. Bayesian algorithm was involved in crucial points of both model sub compartments. The application was evaluated in two filling stations (one urban and one rural. Among several algorithms available for the development of the ANN exposure model, Bayesian regularization provided the best results and seemed to be a promising technique for prediction of the exposure pattern of that occupational population group. On assessing the estimated leukemia risk under the scope of providing a distribution curve based on the exposure levels and the different susceptibility of the population, the Bayesian algorithm was a prerequisite of the Monte Carlo approach, which is integrated in the PBPK-based risk model. In conclusion, the modeling system described herein is capable of exploiting the information collected by the environmental sensors in order to estimate in real time the personal exposure and the resulting health risk for employees of gasoline filling stations.

  10. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure...... to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large number of scenarios that need to be considered in the planning of the development of a city. This calls...... that combines a model for the socio-economic development of cities (DANCE4WATER) with an urban flood model. The urban flood model is a 1D-2D spatially distributed hydrologic and hydraulic model that, for a given urban layout, simulates flow in the sewer system and the surface flow in the catchment (MIKE FLOOD...

  11. Erosion risk assessment in the southern Amazon - Data Preprocessing, data base application and process based modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindewolf, Marcus; Herrmann, Marie-Kristin; Herrmann, Anne-Katrin; Schultze, Nico; Amorim, Ricardo S. S.; Schmidt, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The study region along the BR 16 highway belongs to the "Deforestation Arc" at the southern border of the Amazon rainforest. At the same time, it incorporates a land use gradient as colonization started in the 1975-1990 in Central Mato Grosso in 1990 in northern Mato Grosso and most recently in 2004-2005 in southern Pará. Based on present knowledge soil erosion is one of the key driver of soil degradation. Hence, there is a strong need to implement soil erosion control measures in eroding landscapes. Planning and dimensioning of such measures require reliable and detailed information on the temporal and spatial distribution of soil loss, sediment transport and deposition. Soil erosion models are increasingly used, in order to simulate the physical processes involved and to predict the effects of soil erosion control measures. The process based EROSION 3D simulation model is used for surveying soil erosion and deposition on regional catchments. Although EROSION 3D is a widespread, extensively validated model, the application of the model on regional scale remains challenging due to the enormous data requirements and complex data processing operations. In this context the study includes the compilation, validation and generalisation of existing land use and soil data in order to generate a consistent EROSION 3D input datasets. As a part of this process a GIS-linked data base application allows to transfer the original soil and land use data into model specific parameter files. This combined methodology provides different risk assessment maps for certain demands on regional scale. Besides soil loss and sediment transport, sediment pass over points into surface water bodies and particle enrichment can be simulated using the EROSION 3D model. Thus the estimation of particle bound nutrient and pollutant inputs into surface water bodies becomes possible. The study ended up in a user-friendly, timesaving and improved software package for the simulation of soil loss and

  12. Modeling the fate of paddy field pesticide in surface water and environmental risk assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The risk of drinking water is greatly concerned because of the large amount of pesticide applied to paddy field and the contamination of drinking water sources due to the runoff. A mathematical model is developed, based on the mass balance, to predict the fate of paddy field pesticides from application, runoff and mixing in a river, taking account of the physical-chemical properties and processes of volatilization, degradation, adsorption and desorption. The model is applied to a river basin in Japan to estimate the contaminant level of several popularly used pesticides at the water intakes. The health risk in drinking water induced by each pesticide concerned is estimated and evaluated by comparing with the acceptable daily intake values (ADI) and with that induced by trihalomethanes. An index to evaluate the total risk of all pesticides appearing in water is proposed. The methods for risk management are also discussed.

  13. A method of ecological and economic risk assessment during the development of the shelf based on mathematical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solovyova, N. V.; Lobkovsky, L. I.

    2015-09-01

    This paper proposes a method of mathematical modelling of ecological risk based on a synthesis of dynamic and probabilistic risk assessment techniques. The probability of assessment of an acceptable probability of an anthropogenic impact to minimize economic costs is proposed. The dependence of an acceptable probability of an anthropogenic impact on the ecological risk is demonstrated with an example calculation. The results of the modelling of the state of a shelf ecosystem based on the dynamic model are used for the calculation as source information. Based on this synthesis, the calculation results bring about the opportunity to balance ecological-economic goals of achieving safe development of the shelf and to satisfy the involuntary necessity to reduce the costs on environmental protection measures, while maintaining the priority of environmental requirements.

  14. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events, flood water routing in downstream areas, and flood risk reduction, providing a unified framework for addressing a variety of flood related events. Numerical, statistical and constraint based method...

  15. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinet, Christelle; Kehlenbeck, Hella; Kriticos, Darren J; Baker, Richard H A; Battisti, Andrea; Brunel, Sarah; Dupin, Maxime; Eyre, Dominic; Faccoli, Massimo; Ilieva, Zhenya; Kenis, Marc; Knight, Jon; Reynaud, Philippe; Yart, Annie; van der Werf, Wopke

    2012-01-01

    Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens). Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  16. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christelle Robinet

    Full Text Available Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens. Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  17. Multistage Carcinogenesis Modelling of Low and Protracted Radiation Exposure for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brugmans, M. J. P.; Bijwaard, H.

    Exposure to cosmic radiation in space poses an increased risk for radiation-induced cancer later in life. Modelling is essential to quantify these excess risks from low and protracted exposures to a mixture of radiation types, since they cannot be determined directly in epidemiological studies. Multistage carcinogenesis models provide a mechanistic basis for the extrapolation of epidemiological data to the regime that is relevant for radiation protection. In recent years, we have exploited the well-known two-mutation carcinogenesis model to bridge the gap between radiobiology and epidemiology. We have fitted this model to a number of animal and epidemiological data sets, using dose-response relationships for the mutational steps that are well established in cellular radiobiology. The methodology and implications for radiation risks are illustrated with analyses of two radiation-induced tumours: bone cancer from internal (high-LET and low-LET) emitters and lung cancer after radon exposure. For the risks of bone-seeking radionuclides (Ra-226, Sr-90, Pu-239), model fits to beagle data show that the dose-effect relationship for bone cancer at low intakes is linear-quadratic. This is due to a combination of equally strong linear dose-effects in the two subsequent mutational steps in the model. This supra-linear dose-effect relationship is also found in a model analysis of bone cancer in radium dial painters. This implies that at low intakes the risks from bone seekers are significantly lower than estimated from a linear extrapolation from high doses. Model analyses of radon-exposed rats and uranium miners show that lung-cancer induction is dominated by a linear radiation effect in the first mutational step. For two miner cohorts with significantly different lung cancer baselines a uniform description of the effect of radon is obtained in a joint analysis. This demonstrates the possibility to model risk transfer across populations. In addition to biologically based risk

  18. Risk Assessment of Repetitive Movements in Olive Growing: Analysis of Annual Exposure Level Assessment Models with the OCRA Checklist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proto, A R; Zimbalatti, G

    2015-10-01

    In Italy, one of the main agricultural crops is represented by the cultivation of olive trees. Olive cultivation characterizes the Italian agricultural landscape and national agricultural economics. Italy is the world's second largest producer of olive oil. Because olive cultivation requires the largest labor force in southern Italy, the aim of this research was to assess the risk of biomechanical overload of the workers' upper limbs. The objective, therefore, was to determine the level of risk that workers are exposed to in each phase of the production process. In Calabria, the second most important region in Italy for both the production of olive oil and cultivated area, there are 113,907 olive farms (83% of all farms) and 250,000 workers. To evaluate the risk of repetitive movements, all of the work tasks performed by workers on 100 farms in Calabria were analyzed. A total of 430 workers were interviewed over the four-year research period. To evaluate the level of exposure to repetitive movements, the OCRA (occupational repetitive actions) checklist was adopted. This checklist was the primary analytical tool during the preliminary risk assessment and in a given working situation. The analysis suggested by the OCRA checklist starts with pre-assigned scores (increasing in value with intensification of risk) for each of four main risk factors and additional factors. Between 2010 and 2013, surveys were conducted using the OCRA checklist with the aim of verifying musculoskeletal risks. The results obtained from the study of 430 workers allowed us to identify the level of exposure to risk. This analysis was conducted in the workplace to examine in detail the repetitive movements performed by the workers. The research was divided into two phases: first to provide preliminary information on the different tasks performed in olive growing, and second to assign a percentage to each task of the total hours worked in a year. Based on the results, this method could well

  19. PERFLUOROCARBON GAS TRACER STUDIES TO SUPPORT RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE SUBJECTED TO TERRORIST ATTACKS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SULLIVAN, T.M.; HEISER, J.; WATSON, T.; ALLWINE, K.J.; FLAHERTY, J.E.

    2006-05-06

    for improving transport models needed for risk assessment.

  20. The multiple stressor ecological risk assessment for the mercury-contaminated South River and upper Shenandoah River using the Bayesian network-relative risk model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Ayre, Kimberley K; Johns, Annie F; Summers, Heather M; Stinson, Jonah; Harris, Meagan J; Herring, Carlie E; Markiewicz, April J

    2017-01-01

    We have conducted a regional scale risk assessment using the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) to calculate the ecological risks to the South River and upper Shenandoah River study area. Four biological endpoints (smallmouth bass, white sucker, Belted Kingfisher, and Carolina Wren) and 4 abiotic endpoints (Fishing River Use, Swimming River Use, Boating River Use, and Water Quality Standards) were included in this risk assessment, based on stakeholder input. Although mercury (Hg) contamination was the original impetus for the site being remediated, other chemical and physical stressors were evaluated. There were 3 primary conclusions from the BN-RRM results. First, risk varies according to location, type and quality of habitat, and exposure to stressors within the landscape. The patterns of risk can be evaluated with reasonable certitude. Second, overall risk to abiotic endpoints was greater than overall risk to biotic endpoints. By including both biotic and abiotic endpoints, we are able to compare risk to endpoints that represent a wide range of stakeholder values. Third, whereas Hg reduction is the regulatory priority for the South River, Hg is not the only stressor driving risk to the endpoints. Ecological and habitat stressors contribute risk to the endpoints and should be considered when managing this site. This research provides the foundation for evaluating the risks of multiple stressors of the South River to a variety of endpoints. From this foundation, tools for the evaluation of management options and an adaptive management tools have been forged. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:85-99. © 2016 SETAC.

  1. Evaluation of semi-generic PBTK modeling for emergency risk assessment after acute inhalation exposure to volatile hazardous chemicals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olie, J. Daniël N; Bessems, Jos G.; Clewell, Harvey J.; Meulenbelt, Jan; Hunault, Claudine C.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Physiologically Based Toxicokinetic Models (PBTK) may facilitate emergency risk assessment after chemical incidents with inhalation exposure, but they are rarely used due to their relative complexity and skill requirements. We aimed to tackle this problem by evaluating a semi-generic PBT

  2. Holistic flood risk assessment using agent-based modelling: the case of Sint Maarten Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abayneh Abebe, Yared; Vojinovic, Zoran; Nikolic, Igor; Hammond, Michael; Sanchez, Arlex; Pelling, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Floods in coastal regions are regarded as one of the most dangerous and harmful disasters. Though commonly referred to as natural disasters, coastal floods are also attributable to various social, economic, historical and political issues. Rapid urbanisation in coastal areas combined with climate change and poor governance can lead to a significant increase in the risk of pluvial flooding coinciding with fluvial and coastal flooding posing a greater risk of devastation in coastal communities. Disasters that can be triggered by hydro-meteorological events are interconnected and interrelated with both human activities and natural processes. They, therefore, require holistic approaches to help understand their complexity in order to design and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimise social and economic losses and environmental impacts, and increase resilience to such events. Being located in the North Atlantic Ocean, Sint Maarten is frequently subjected to hurricanes. In addition, the stormwater catchments and streams on Sint Maarten have several unique characteristics that contribute to the severity of flood-related impacts. Urban environments are usually situated in low-lying areas, with little consideration for stormwater drainage, and as such are subject to flash flooding. Hence, Sint Maarten authorities drafted policies to minimise the risk of flood-related disasters on the island. In this study, an agent-based model is designed and applied to understand the implications of introduced policies and regulations, and to understand how different actors' behaviours influence the formation, propagation and accumulation of flood risk. The agent-based model built for this study is based on the MAIA meta-model, which helps to decompose, structure and conceptualize socio-technical systems with an agent-oriented perspective, and is developed using the NetLogo simulation environment. The agents described in this model are households and businesses, and

  3. Genetically modified plants and food hypersensitivity diseases: usage and implications of experimental models for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prescott, Vanessa E; Hogan, Simon P

    2006-08-01

    The recent advances in biotechnology in the plant industry have led to increasing crop production and yield that in turn has increased the usage of genetically modified (GM) food in the human food chain. The usage of GM foods for human consumption has raised a number of fundamental questions including the ability of GM foods to elicit potentially harmful immunological responses, including allergic hypersensitivity. To assess the safety of foods derived from GM plants including allergenic potential, the US FDA, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)/World Health Organization (WHO), and the EU have developed approaches for evaluation assessment. One assessment approach that has been a very active area of research and debate is the development and usage of animal models to assess the potential allergenicity of GM foods. A number of specific animal models employing rodents, pigs, and dogs have been developed for allergenicity assessment. However, validation of these models is needed and consideration of the criteria for an appropriate animal model for the assessment of allergenicity in GM plants is required. We have recently employed a BALB/c mouse model to assess the potential allergenicity of GM plants. We have been able to demonstrate that this model is able to detect differences in antigenicity and identify aspects of protein post-translational modifications that can alter antigenicity. Furthermore, this model has also enabled us to examine the usage of GM plants as a therapeutic approach for the treatment of allergic diseases. This review discusses the current approaches to assess the allergenic potential of GM food and particularly focusing on the usage of animal models to determine the potential allergenicity of GM foods and gives an overview of our recent findings and implications of these studies.

  4. Stability model and risk assessment for the Montescaglioso Landslide (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amanti, Marco; Chiessi, Vittorio; Guarino, Paolo Maria; Spizzichino, Daniele; Troccoli, Alessandro; Vizzini, Giorgio

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, we present the final results of a landslide risk assessment evaluation implemented for the recent Montescaglioso landslide emergency occurred on 3rd December 2013 when a large and rapid slope failure, triggered by prolonged and intense rainfall, affected a big portion of the SW slope of the village. The slope failure damaged a main road, private homes and commercial buildings. The Montescaglioso village (Basilicata Region, Italy) is located on the top of a conglomerate hill overlying a gentle slope constituted by Plio-Pleistocene clays. The area has been affected since ancient time by different landslide typologies and mechanism, as determined by a direct geomorphological survey and from mapping and available technical literature. Phenomena such as rock-falls and rock lateral spreading in the upper part of the hill, and rotational/translational slides and earth flows can be recognized in the area. Landslides are mainly promoted by the geological and structural setting of the area as well as by very low mechanical characteristics of sediments outcropping in the area. After the emergency phase, a detailed program of field survey and laboratory campaign has been implemented during the last year. A detailed topographical analysis has been developed by using the LIDAR survey in order to define morphometric conditions and geometry modifications of the slope affected by the landslide. Based on the studies carried out in the area, the research has been aimed to assessing the stability conditions (residual landslide risk) of the SW slope of the hill trough an extended geological, geomorphological and geotechnical campaign linked with numerical study of present instability mechanism. The geological and geotechnical model of the slope has been defined trough the analysis of the past and recent logs obtained from several boreholes and also through the results of many mechanical test performed on samples taken in the area. The numerical study has been carried out

  5. A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Balbi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of: (1 likelihood of non-fatal physical injury; (2 likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder; (3 likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the benefits of improving an existing Early Warning System, taking into account the reliability, lead-time and scope (i.e. coverage of people reached by the warning. Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event: about 75 % of fatalities, 25 % of injuries and 18 % of post-traumatic stress disorders could be avoided.

  6. A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balbi, Stefano; Villa, Ferdinando; Mojtahed, Vahid; Hegetschweiler, Karin Tessa; Giupponi, Carlo

    2016-06-01

    This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; and produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury, (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder and (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the effect of improving an existing early warning system, taking into account the reliability, lead time and scope (i.e., coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event.

  7. Dose-response modeling for the environmental risk assessment in cases of technogenic soil contamination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shitikov Vladimir Kirilloviсh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The review of regression models for the approximation of dependences "dose- response" was performed based on ecotoxicological results. The advantages and deficiencies of different models as well as the problems arising both in modeling and subsequent interpreting results are discussed for the purpose of ecological rationing and estimation of negative influence risk. Search procedures of best dependences based on statistical criteria and the methods of uncertainty estimation of calculated parameters are shown. Construction of models is illustrated in detail using the analysis of toxicity results of soil samples received from uranium mines tailings in Kadzhi-Say province (Kyrgyzstan. Threshold values of activity for U-238 and Ra-226 radionuclides providing the minimum probability of ecological risk were determined.

  8. Education and risk of coronary heart disease: assessment of mediation by behavioral risk factors using the additive hazards model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordahl, Helene; Rod, Naja Hulvej; Frederiksen, Birgitte Lidegaard; Andersen, Ingelise; Lange, Theis; Diderichsen, Finn; Prescott, Eva; Overvad, Kim; Osler, Merete

    2013-02-01

    Educational-related gradients in coronary heart disease (CHD) and mediation by behavioral risk factors are plausible given previous research; however this has not been comprehensively addressed in absolute measures. Questionnaire data on health behavior of 69,513 participants, 52 % women, from seven Danish cohort studies were linked to registry data on education and incidence of CHD. Mediation by smoking, low physical activity, and body mass index (BMI) on the association between education and CHD were estimated by applying newly proposed methods for mediation based on the additive hazards model, and compared with results from the Cox proportional hazards model. Short (vs. long) education was associated with 277 (95 % CI: 219, 336) additional cases of CHD per 100,000 person-years at risk among women, and 461 (95 % CI: 368, 555) additional cases among men. Of these additional cases 17 (95 % CI: 12, 22) for women and 37 (95 % CI: 28, 46) for men could be ascribed to the pathway through smoking. Further, 39 (95 % CI: 30, 49) cases for women and 94 (95 % CI: 79, 110) cases for men could be ascribed to the pathway through BMI. The effects of low physical activity were negligible. Using contemporary methods, the additive hazards model, for mediation we indicated the absolute numbers of CHD cases prevented when modifying smoking and BMI. This study confirms previous claims based on the Cox proportional hazards model that behavioral risk factors partially mediates the effect of education on CHD, and the results seems not to be particularly model dependent.

  9. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Saroff, L. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  10. Supply Chain Modeling: Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM) Demonstration of Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    This work was done for Defense Logistics Agency Strategic Materials (DLA SM) to provide the capability to analyze supply chains of strategic and...of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics , 2013). 9 3. Supply Chain Modeling... Logistics , 2013. Kouvelis, Panos, Lingxiu Dong, Onur Boyabatli, and Rong Li. Handbook of Integrated Risk Management in Global Supply Chains Hoboken, NJ

  11. Heuristic approach for risk assessment modeling: EPCCM application (Engineer Procure Construct Contract Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali F. Bakr

    2012-12-01

    Finally, EPCCM; modeling system is created to assist contract administrators, to diminish time, effort, wading back and forth between construction cases and developed projects. The result is a more efficient and proactive contract management environment by providing database for lessons learned in addition to tracking ongoing projects contractual risks, and consequently for issuing relevant decisions and activity plans.

  12. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events,

  13. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events,

  14. Can Bayesian Belief Networks help tackling conceptual model uncertainties in contaminated site risk assessment?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Mads; Thomsen, Nanna Isbak; McKnight, Ursula S.;

    models that are effective for integrating quantitative and qualitative information, and thus can strengthen decisions when empirical data are lacking. The developed BBN combines data from desk studies and initial site investigations with expert opinion to assess which of the conceptual models are more...... help inform future investigations at a contaminated site....

  15. Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saile, Lynn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Kerstman, Eric; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

  16. Simulating floods : On the application of a 2D-hydraulic model for flood hazard and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Alkema, D.

    2007-01-01

    Over the last decades, river floods in Europe seem to occur more frequently and are causing more and more economic and emotional damage. Understanding the processes causing flooding and the development of simulation models to evaluate countermeasures to control that damage are important issues. This study deals with the application of a 2D hydraulic flood propagation model for flood hazard and risk assessment. It focuses on two components: 1) how well does it predict the spatial-dynamic chara...

  17. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for spray irrigation of dairy manure based on an empirical fate and transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burch, Tucker R; Spencer, Susan K.; Stokdyk, Joel; Kieke, Burney A; Larson, Rebecca A; Firnstahl, Aaron; Rule, Ana M; Borchardt, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. METHODS: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irri- gation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. RESULTS: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk.

  18. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is generally imperfect, uncertainty arises in disaggregation. This paper therefore proposes a probabilistic...... disaggregation model that considers the uncertainty in the disaggregation, taking basis in the scaled Dirichlet distribution. The proposed probabilistic disaggregation model is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings in the Canton Bern, Switzerland, subject to flood risk. Thereby, the model is verified...

  19. Evaluation of snow-glide risk by modelling and on-site assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitinger, Georg; Meusburger, Katrin; Rüdisser, Johannes; Tasser, Erich; Höller, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Abandonment of agricultural practices on alpine grasslands lead to increasing snow-glide intensities due to lower surface roughness of the vegetation. Beneath the danger of snow-glide avalanches snow gliding leads to soil erosion and damaging of young trees at afforested sites. Especially in high altitudes afforestation is important to protect settlements and infrastructure against snow-gliding and glide avalanches. Snow-glide damages are therefore of particular danger for these afforestation sites. In the light of future climate change and warmer winter periods, studies already state increasing snow-glide risk and the occurrence of glide avalanches. This study presents an approach to evaluate snow-glide risk by combining the refined Spatial Snow Glide Model (SSGM) first published by Leitinger et al. (2008) and the Guidelines to Identify Snow-Glide Areas (GISGA) proposed by Höller (2012), an on-site risk analyses approach. First, GISGA was validated on the basis of corresponding snow-glide measurements. Second, a potential snow-glide map for an area in the Eastern Alps covering 20000 km² was modelled. The results revealed considerable areas of high snow-glide risk. Using the average amount of winter precipitation between 1990 and 2010 in the SSGM shows higher vulnerability for the northern part of the study area (Tyrol, Austria) than in the southern part (South Tyrol, Italy) because of lower winter precipitation. However, running the SSGM based on the highest winter precipitation registered in the study area between 1801 and 2003 exhibits the possibility of very high snow-glide risk for most parts of the study area with significant increasing risk in the southern part. Given the very probable future climate during winter periods with increasing temperatures but uncertain development of precipitation patterns, snow-glide activity and linked glide avalanches might further increase at least in areas and altitudes with solid precipitation. In combination with the

  20. AB159. Endocrine disrupting chemicals: toxicological risk assessment in vivo and in vitro models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuy, Vo Thi Bich; Nguyen Binh, Le Thi; Phuong Oanh, Kim Thi; Van Hai, Nong

    2015-01-01

    the stimulation of CaBP-9k gene, an estrogenic biomarker, via binding to estrogen receptor and/or progesterone receptor in immature female rat and GH3 cell line. An increasing number of chemical compounds in the environment have been identified as endocrine disruptor in vivo and in vitro bioassay. A future challenge is required to confirm a theoretical toxicology and risk assessment of EDs for human and animal health.

  1. Health Risk Assessment using in vitro digestion model in assessing bioavailability of heavy metal in rice: A preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omar, N A; Praveena, S M; Aris, A Z; Hashim, Z

    2015-12-01

    Little is known about the bioavailability of heavy metal contamination and its health risks after rice ingestion. This study aimed to determine bioavailability of heavy metal (As, Cd, Cu, Cr, Co, Al, Fe, Zn and Pb) concentrations in cooked rice and human Health Risk Assessment (HRA). The results found Zn was the highest (4.3±0.1 mg/kg), whereas As showed the lowest (0.015±0.001 mg/kg) bioavailability of heavy metal concentration in 22 varieties of cooked rice. For single heavy metal exposure, no potential of non carcinogenic health risks was found, while carcinogenic health risks were found only for As. Combined heavy metal exposures found that total Hazard Quotient (HQtotal) values for adult were higher than the acceptable range (HQTotal1×10(-4)) for both adult and children. This study is done to understand that the inclusion of bioavailability heavy metal into HRA produces a more realistic estimation of human heavy metal exposure.

  2. Invasive alien species in the food chain: Advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren Kriticos

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Pest risk maps illustrate where invasive alien arthropods, molluscs, pathogens, and weeds might become established, spread, and cause harm to natural and agricultural resources within a pest risk area. Such maps can be powerful tools to assist policymakers in matters of international trade, domestic quarantines, biosecurity surveillance, or pest-incursion responses. The International Pest Risk Mapping Workgroup (IPRMW is a group of ecologists, economists, modellers, and practising risk analysts who are committed to improving the methods used to estimate risks posed by invasive alien species to agricultural and natural resources. The group also strives to improve communication about pest risks to biosecurity, production, and natural-resource-sector stakeholders so that risks can be better managed. The IPRMW previously identified ten activities to improve pest risk assessment procedures, among these were: “improve representations of uncertainty, … expand communications with decision-makers on the interpretation and use of risk maps, … increase international collaboration, … incorporate climate change, … [and] study how human and biological dimensions interact” (Venette et al. 2010.

  3. An integrated model for assessing the risk of TCE groundwater contamination to human receptors and surface water ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKnight, Ursula S.; Funder, S.G.; Rasmussen, J.J.;

    2010-01-01

    . This was accomplished by coupling the system dynamics-based decision support system CARO-PLUS to the aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX using an analytical volatilization model for the stream. The model was applied to a case study where a TCE contaminated groundwater plume is discharging to a stream. The TCE source...... will not be depleted for many decades, however measured and predicted TCE concentrations in surface water were found to be below human health risk management targets. Volatilization rapidly attenuates TCE concentrations in surface water. Thus, only a 300 m stream reach fails to meet surface water quality criteria....... An ecological risk assessment found that the TCE contamination did not impact the stream ecosystem. Uncertainty assessment revealed hydraulic conductivity to be the most important site-specific parameter. These results indicate that contaminant plumes with μgL-1 concentrations of TCE entering surface water...

  4. Regional probabilistic nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment by integration of mathematical modelling land GIS-analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rigina, O. [Univ. of Copenhagen, Inst. of Geography, Copenhagen (Denmark); Baklanov, A. [Danish Meteorological Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2002-04-01

    The Kola Peninsula, Russian Arctic exceeds all other regions in the world in the number of nuclear reactors. The study was aimed at estimating possible radiation risks to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident in the Kola Peninsula. A new approach based on probabilistic analysis of modelled possible pathways of radionuclide transport and precipitation was developed. For the general population, Finland is at most risk with respect to the Kola NPP, because of: high population density or proximity to the radiation-risk sites and relatively high probability of an airflow trajectory there, and precipitation. After considering the critical group, northern counties in Norway, Finland and Sweden appear to be most vulnerable. (au)

  5. Structural equation models for meta-analysis in environmental risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben; Debes, Frodi; Weihe, Pal;

    2010-01-01

    The potential of structural equation models for combining information from different studies in environmental epidemiology is explored. For illustration we synthesize data from two birth cohorts assessing the effects of prenatal exposure to methylmercury on childhood cognitive performance. One...... cohort was the largest by far, but a smaller cohort included superior assessment of the PCB exposure which has been considered an important confounder when estimating the mercury effect. The data were analyzed by specification of a structural equation model for each cohort. Information was then pooled...

  6. Application of the GREAT-ER model for environmental risk assessment of nonylphenol and nonylphenol ethoxylates in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lai; Cao, Yan; Hao, Xuewen; Zhang, Yongyong; Liu, Jianguo

    2015-12-01

    The environmental risk presented by "down-the-drain" chemicals to receiving rivers in large urban areas has received increasing attention in recent years. Geo-referenced Regional Environmental Assessment Tool for European Rivers (GREAT-ER) is a typical river catchment model that has been specifically developed for the risk assessment of these chemicals and applied in many European rivers. By utilizing the new version of the model, GREAT-ER 3.0, which is the first completely open source software for worldwide application, this study represents the first attempt to conduct an application of GREAT-ER in the Wenyu River of China. Aquatic exposure simulation and an environmental risk assessment of nonylphenol (NP) and its environmental precursor nonylphenol ethoxylates (NPEOs) were conducted effectively by GREAT-ER model, since NP is one of typical endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and its environmental precursor NPEOs as a "down-the-drain" chemical are extensively used in China. In the result, the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of NP and NPEOs in the water of Wenyu River were 538 and 4320 ng/L, respectively, at the regional scale, and 1210 and 8990 ng/L, respectively, at the local scale. From the results profile of the RCR, the combination of high emissions from large STPs with insufficient dilution of the river caused the high RCR. The PECs of NP in the sediment were in the range of 216.8-8218.3 ng/g (dry weight), which was consistent with the available monitoring data. The study showed the worldwide applicability and reliability of GREAT-ER as a river catchment model for the risk assessment of these chemicals and also revealed the general environmental risks presented by NP and NPEOs in the Wenyu River catchment in Beijing due to the extensive use of these chemicals. The results suggest that specific control or treatment measures are probably warranted for these chemicals to reduce their discharge in major cities.

  7. Comparative application of different risk assessment models and implications on resulting remediation options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capodaglio, Andrea; Callegari, Arianna; Torretta, Vincenzo

    2014-01-01

    The issue of contaminated soils and their productive recovery is a quite controversial environmental and economic problem with important consequences for its social, public health and sustainability aspects. The sheer number and characteristics of the polluted sites are so large and varied, and the definition of priorities related to their remediation interventions so site-dependent, that proper characterization and final environmental quality goals reflect a strategic importance. One of the possible approaches to site specific approach and site priority ranking can be that of carrying out, respectively, absolute and comparative analysis procedures. An important aspect to be solved is represented by the necessity to consider not only the potential risk to public health, but also the best possible financial return from the investments for remediation, especially when carried out with public money. In this paper, different contaminated sites' risk assessment approaches are considered, compared and their applicability to support sustainable policies discussed using a case study.

  8. Integration Of Company’s Financial Data In Credit Risk Assessment Using A Multidimensional Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria – Monica Haralambie

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a detailed overview from theoretical and practical perspectives of a scoring system used by a financial institution in assessing the credit risk of a corporate client. The objective of this research was to demonstrate the importance of a scoring system for a credit institution when approving a loan application of a potential borrower. The complexity and importance of the topic makes it a subject of high interest for all type of credit institutions. We believe that through this work we were able to bring into discussion only a part of the specific issues related to credit risk management scoring systems and we believe that this work represents a support for future research

  9. Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis. Pc Behavior Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallejo, J.J.; Hejduk, M.D.; Stamey, J. D.

    2015-01-01

    Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

  10. Using climate model simulations to assess the current climate risk to maize production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Chris; Pope, Edward; Thompson, Vikki; Lewis, Kirsty; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick

    2017-05-01

    The relationship between the climate and agricultural production is of considerable importance to global food security. However, there has been relatively little exploration of climate-variability related yield shocks. The short observational yield record does not adequately sample natural inter-annual variability thereby limiting the accuracy of probability assessments. Focusing on the United States and China, we present an innovative use of initialised ensemble climate simulations and a new agro-climatic indicator, to calculate the risk of severe water stress. Combined, these regions provide 60% of the world’s maize, and therefore, are crucial to global food security. To probe a greater range of inter-annual variability, the indicator is applied to 1400 simulations of the present day climate. The probability of severe water stress in the major maize producing regions is quantified, and in many regions an increased risk is found compared to calculations from observed historical data. Analysis suggests that the present day climate is also capable of producing unprecedented severe water stress conditions. Therefore, adaptation plans and policies based solely on observed events from the recent past may considerably under-estimate the true risk of climate-related maize shocks. The probability of a major impact event occurring simultaneously across both regions—a multi-breadbasket failure—is estimated to be up to 6% per decade and arises from a physically plausible climate state. This novel approach highlights the significance of climate impacts on crop production shocks and provides a platform for considerably improving food security assessments, in the present day or under a changing climate, as well as development of new risk based climate services.

  11. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  12. Semiparametric Bayesian joint modeling of a binary and continuous outcome with applications in toxicological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Beom Seuk; Pennell, Michael L

    2014-03-30

    Many dose-response studies collect data on correlated outcomes. For example, in developmental toxicity studies, uterine weight and presence of malformed pups are measured on the same dam. Joint modeling can result in more efficient inferences than independent models for each outcome. Most methods for joint modeling assume standard parametric response distributions. However, in toxicity studies, it is possible that response distributions vary in location and shape with dose, which may not be easily captured by standard models. To address this issue, we propose a semiparametric Bayesian joint model for a binary and continuous response. In our model, a kernel stick-breaking process prior is assigned to the distribution of a random effect shared across outcomes, which allows flexible changes in distribution shape with dose shared across outcomes. The model also includes outcome-specific fixed effects to allow different location effects. In simulation studies, we found that the proposed model provides accurate estimates of toxicological risk when the data do not satisfy assumptions of standard parametric models. We apply our method to data from a developmental toxicity study of ethylene glycol diethyl ether.

  13. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ducrot, C.; Sala, C.; Ru, G.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Sheridan, H.; Saegerman, C.; Selhorst, T.; Arnold, M.; Polak, M.P.; Calavas, D.

    2010-01-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong dec

  14. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ducrot, C.; Sala, C.; Ru, G.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Sheridan, H.; Saegerman, C.; Selhorst, T.; Arnold, M.; Polak, M.P.; Calavas, D.

    2010-01-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong

  15. A globally applicable location-specific screening model for assessing the relative risk of pesticide leaching

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whelan, M.J. [Unilever Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, MK44 1LQ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: mick.whelan@unilever.com; Davenport, E.J. [Unilever Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, MK44 1LQ (United Kingdom); Smith, B.G. [Unilever Sustainable Agriculture Team, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, MK44 1LQ (United Kingdom)

    2007-05-15

    A screening model of pesticide leaching loss is described which forms part of a multi-criteria risk-based indicator system called PRoMPT (Pesticide Risk Management and Profiling Tool). The leaching model evaluates pesticide fate in soil for any application rate and time of application (including multiple applications), for any land-based location in the world. It considers a generic evaluative environment with fixed dimensions and soil properties. The soil profile is conceptualised as a number of discrete layers. Equilibrium partitioning between adsorbed and dissolved chemical (based on the organic carbon-water partition coefficient [K {sub OC}]) is assumed in each time step, in each layer. Non-leaching losses are described using first order kinetics. Drainage is assumed to be uniform throughout the soil profile but varies temporally. The drainage rate, which can be augmented by evapotranspiration-adjusted irrigation, is derived from long-term mean monthly water balance model calculations performed for 30 arc-minute grid cells across the entire ice-free land surface of the earth. Although, such predictions are approximate, they do capture the seasonality and relative magnitude of drainage and allow the model to be applied anywhere, without the need for extensive data compilation. PRoMPT predictions are shown to be consistent with those made by more sophisticated models (PRZM, PELMO and PEARL) for the FOCUS groundwater scenarios.

  16. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  17. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  18. A GIS based urban flood risk analysis model for vulnerability assessment of critical structures during flood emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Adamowski, J.; Mancusi, L.

    2014-04-01

    Risk analysis has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk by considering the priority and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a flood risk analysis model was developed in this study that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that assesses the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a quantitative estimation of flood risk on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e., connection between aid centres and buildings at risk) in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia Region in Southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for the defining of a hierarchy between different infrastructures in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas.

  19. Benchmarking computational fluid dynamics models of lava flow simulation for hazard assessment, forecasting, and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietterich, Hannah; Lev, Einat; Chen, Jiangzhi; Richardson, Jacob A.; Cashman, Katharine V.

    2017-01-01

    Numerical simulations of lava flow emplacement are valuable for assessing lava flow hazards, forecasting active flows, designing flow mitigation measures, interpreting past eruptions, and understanding the controls on lava flow behavior. Existing lava flow models vary in simplifying assumptions, physics, dimensionality, and the degree to which they have been validated against analytical solutions, experiments, and natural observations. In order to assess existing models and guide the development of new codes, we conduct a benchmarking study of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for lava flow emplacement, including VolcFlow, OpenFOAM, FLOW-3D, COMSOL, and MOLASSES. We model viscous, cooling, and solidifying flows over horizontal planes, sloping surfaces, and into topographic obstacles. We compare model results to physical observations made during well-controlled analogue and molten basalt experiments, and to analytical theory when available. Overall, the models accurately simulate viscous flow with some variability in flow thickness where flows intersect obstacles. OpenFOAM, COMSOL, and FLOW-3D can each reproduce experimental measurements of cooling viscous flows, and OpenFOAM and FLOW-3D simulations with temperature-dependent rheology match results from molten basalt experiments. We assess the goodness-of-fit of the simulation results and the computational cost. Our results guide the selection of numerical simulation codes for different applications, including inferring emplacement conditions of past lava flows, modeling the temporal evolution of ongoing flows during eruption, and probabilistic assessment of lava flow hazard prior to eruption. Finally, we outline potential experiments and desired key observational data from future flows that would extend existing benchmarking data sets.

  20. Database assessment of CMIP5 and hydrological models to determine flood risk areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limlahapun, Ponthip; Fukui, Hiromichi

    2016-11-01

    Solutions for water-related disasters may not be solved with a single scientific method. Based on this premise, we involved logic conceptions, associate sequential result amongst models, and database applications attempting to analyse historical and future scenarios in the context of flooding. The three main models used in this study are (1) the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to derive precipitation; (2) the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) to extract amount of discharge; and (3) the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) model to generate inundated areas. This research notably focused on integrating data regardless of system-design complexity, and database approaches are significantly flexible, manageable, and well-supported for system data transfer, which makes them suitable for monitoring a flood. The outcome of flood map together with real-time stream data can help local communities identify areas at-risk of flooding in advance.

  1. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  2. Prioritising chemicals used in personal care products in China for environmental risk assessment: application of the RAIDAR model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouin, Todd; van Egmond, Roger; Price, Oliver R; Hodges, Juliet E N

    2012-06-01

    China represents a significant market for the sale of personal care products (PCPs). Given the continuous emission of hundreds of chemicals used in PCPs to waste water and the aquatic environment after regular use, methods for prioritising the environmental risk assessment for China are needed. In an effort to assess the prioritisation of chemicals used in PCPs in China, we have identified the chemical ingredients used in 2500 PCPs released to the Chinese market in 2009, and estimated the annual emission of these chemicals. The physical-chemical property data for these substances have been estimated and used as model inputs in the RAIDAR model. In general, the RAIDAR model provides an overall assessment of the multimedia fate of chemicals, and provides a holistic approach for prioritising chemical ingredients. The prioritisation exercise conducted in this study is shown to be strongly influenced by loss processes, such as the removal efficiencies of WWT plants and biotransformation.

  3. Quantitative flood risk assessment in historic cities: sensitivity to hydraulic modeling and open socio-economic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Castelli, Fabio; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Mazzanti, Bernardo

    2014-05-01

    The assessment of flood risk in urban areas is considered nowadays a crucial issue to be addressed by technicians and public authorities and requires the estimation of hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Each step of the risk assessment brings its uncertainties to the final result, thus the analysis of the sensitivity to the different contributors is required. Since the damages are generally evaluated through stage-damage functions one of the most important contribution is the estimated value of the water depth. Water depth is the outcome of hydraulic models that can be implemented with different modeling approaches and levels of spatial detail, thus providing flood depth maps that may differ in the extension of the inundated area and in the flood depth value. It is generally argued that 2D models are the most suitable to describe flood behavior in the urban environment although most of applications are carried out in small and sparse urban areas. In the historic cities a 2D model provides reliable results if the grid size is small enough to describe the street/building pattern, implying long simulation runs. Another contribution is given by monetary values assigned to the damage categories that may come from different proxy variables and may oscillate according to the real estate quotations. The risk assessment here presented is made possible thanks to a methodology based on the open data, both socio-economic and territorial, that are available in the web. In this work the risk assessment procedure and the sensitivity analysis are applied to the main cities located along the Arno river, Pisa and Florence (Italy) that are usually considered of broad interest for the importance of urban and cultural heritage. The risk is estimated accounting for structures, household contents, commercial and tertiary sectors which are the most representative of the studied areas. The evaluation and mapping of micro-scale flood risk is carried out in a GIS environment using open data

  4. Key issues for the development and application of the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model for ecological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Fu-Liu; Li, Yi-Long; Wang, Yin

    2015-01-01

    The species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model is one of the most commonly used methods for ecological risk assessment based on the potentially affected fraction (PAF) of and the combined PAF (msPAF) as quantitative indicators. There are usually four steps for the development of SSD models...... fractions (msPAFs) for the joint ecological risk assessment of multiple pollutants. Among the above mentioned four steps, the first two steps are paramount. In the present study, the following six key issues are discussed: (1) how to select the appropriate species, (2) how to preprocess the toxicity data...... collected from the ecotoxicity database, (3) how to transform the acute toxicity data into chronic data, (4) how to best fit the toxicity data, (5) how to calculate the msPAF of multiple pollutants, and (6) how to determine the uncertainty of the SSD model”. In response to these questions, several...

  5. Linking turbine collision risks with population models to assess cumulative impacts of multiple wind farms on threatened birds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smales, Ian; Muir, Stuart; Meredith, Charles; Baird, Robert

    2011-07-01

    Full text: Assessment of the effects on birds of wind turbine collisions has generally been focussed on the number of individuals that might be killed at a particular facility. However, this measure, of itself, may have little relevance to evaluating the potential or real effects on conservation status of threatened species. Determination of the overall effect any such mortality may have on the functioning of these populations will provide a better basis for decisions that have a strong foundation in ecology. For species with sufficient demographic information, we have developed and applied an approach combining collision risk modelling for all wind farms within the range of a threatened species with population modelling. This permits population-level evaluation of potential cumulative impacts of multiple wind farms. In Australia, regulatory authorities are increasingly interested in the cumulative risk to threatened species that may be posed by multiple wind energy facilities within a species. range. The approach outlined here has been applied in the pre-construction approval stage using collision risk modelling, and can be applied to operational facilities using data on actual mortalities. Cumulative modelling of risk posed by multiple wind farms requires different approaches for sedentary and migratory species. For sedentary species the cumulative effect will be the sum of the impact experienced by those parts of the population whose range intersects with wind farms. Cumulative impact is derived for migratory species by assessing the probability of birds surviving encounters with one wind farm after another on the migratory route and is thus the product of their survivorship rates for the relevant wind farms. The collision risk modelling used will be outlined along with the method in which it is integrated with a population model. Case studies for a crane (Brolga Grus rubicundus) and a parrot (orange- bellied parrot Neophema chrysogaster) species will be

  6. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  7. Physiologically based kinetic models for the alkenylbenzene elemicin in rat and human and possible implications for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Berg, Suzanne J P L; Punt, Ans; Soffers, Ans E M F; Vervoort, Jacques; Ngeleja, Stephen; Spenkelink, Bert; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

    2012-11-19

    The present study describes physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models for the alkenylbenzene elemicin (3,4,5-trimethoxyallylbenzene) in rat and human, based on the PBK models previously developed for the structurally related alkenylbenzenes estragole, methyleugenol, and safrole. Using the newly developed models, the level of metabolic activation of elemicin in rat and human was predicted to obtain insight in species differences in the bioactivation of elemicin and read across to the other methoxy allylbenzenes, estragole and methyleugenol. Results reveal that the differences between rat and human in the formation of the proximate carcinogenic metabolite 1'-hydroxyelemicin and the ultimate carcinogenic metabolite 1'-sulfoxyelemicin are limited (rat and human liver. The insights thus obtained were used to perform a risk assessment for elemicin using the margin of exposure (MOE) approach and read across to the other methoxy allylbenzene derivatives for which in vivo animal tumor data are available. This reveals that elemicin poses a lower priority for risk management as compared to its structurally related analogues estragole and methyleugenol. Altogether, the results obtained indicate that PBK modeling provides an important insight in the occurrence of species differences in the metabolic activation of elemicin. Moreover, they provide an example of how PBK modeling can facilitate a read across in risk assessment from compounds for which in vivo toxicity studies are available to a compound for which only limited toxicity data have been described, thus contributing to the development of alternatives for animal testing.

  8. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  9. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  10. Risk assessment and consequence modeling of BLEVE explosion wave phenomenon of LPG spherical tank in a refinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Kamaei

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Although human industrial activities are as a part of efforts to achieve greater prosperity, the risks related to these activities are also expanding. Hazard identification and risk assessment in the oil and gas industries are essential to reduce the frequency and severity of accidents and minimize damage to people and property before their occurrence. The aim of this study was to evaluate the liquefied and pressurized petroleum gas spherical tanks in a refinery and assessing the risks of Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE phenomenon. Material and Method: In this study, the risks of BLEVE phenomenon were assessed, using the Bowtie method. The consequences of explosion wave phenomenon and the resulting wave quantity and its impacts on the neighboring machineries and equipment were analyzed. PHAST software version 6.54 has been used for modeling the BLEVE phenomenon. Result: In this evaluation, generally five causes and two consequences were identified for BLEVE phenomenon. In order to reduce its consequences, forty-three controlling measures were introduced to prevent the BLEVE phenomenon and the impacts of 31 control measures were identified. According to the conducted analysis, it was found that the spherical tank blast wave caused by LPG can lead to explosion of close located tanks which can create a chain of explosions. Conclusion: The results of modeling and risk assessment can be used to identify the BLEVE phenomenon causes and its effects on nearby people and equipment. Based on these results, preventive controlling measures can be implemented and also be determined by adopting proper design and layout, margin of safety for personnel, equipment and accessories.

  11. Assessment of a remote sensing-based model for predicting malaria transmission risk in villages of Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, L. R.; Rodriguez, M. H.; Dister, S. W.; Rodriguez, A. D.; Washino, R. K.; Roberts, D. R.; Spanner, M. A.

    1997-01-01

    A blind test of two remote sensing-based models for predicting adult populations of Anopheles albimanus in villages, an indicator of malaria transmission risk, was conducted in southern Chiapas, Mexico. One model was developed using a discriminant analysis approach, while the other was based on regression analysis. The models were developed in 1992 for an area around Tapachula, Chiapas, using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite data and geographic information system functions. Using two remotely sensed landscape elements, the discriminant model was able to successfully distinguish between villages with high and low An. albimanus abundance with an overall accuracy of 90%. To test the predictive capability of the models, multitemporal TM data were used to generate a landscape map of the Huixtla area, northwest of Tapachula, where the models were used to predict risk for 40 villages. The resulting predictions were not disclosed until the end of the test. Independently, An. albimanus abundance data were collected in the 40 randomly selected villages for which the predictions had been made. These data were subsequently used to assess the models' accuracies. The discriminant model accurately predicted 79% of the high-abundance villages and 50% of the low-abundance villages, for an overall accuracy of 70%. The regression model correctly identified seven of the 10 villages with the highest mosquito abundance. This test demonstrated that remote sensing-based models generated for one area can be used successfully in another, comparable area.

  12. Modelling tools for assessing bioremediation performance and risk of chlorinated solvents in clay tills

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia

    transfer limitations in order to achieve remediation in reasonable timeframes. The importance of mass transfer limitations depends on the extent of the reductive dechlorination in the matrix (termed bioactive zones), and the spacing between them, which is controlled by the injection interval. Numerical......Chlorinated solvents are widespread contaminants in the subsurface. In lowpermeability fractured media, such as clay tills, chlorinated solvents are transported downwards along preferential pathways, formed by fractures and sand lenses, and diffuse into the adjacent clay matrix. These contaminants...... are trapped in the low-permeability matrix and can then slowly back diffuse to the fracture network, forming a long-term secondary contamination source to the underlying aquifers. Because of the complex transport and degradation processes and the mass transfer limitations, risk assessment and remediation...

  13. Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

    2016-03-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical

  14. Tools for microbiological risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bassett, J; Nauta, M; Lindqvist, R.; Zwietering, M. H.

    2012-01-01

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute ...

  15. Estimating the value of a Country's built assets: investment-based exposure modelling for global risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Pomonis, Antonios; Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Gaspari, Maria; Lu, Xijie; Aubrecht, Christoph; Ungar, Joachim

    2017-04-01

    In order to quantify disaster risk, there is a demand and need for determining consistent and reliable economic value of built assets at national or sub national level exposed to natural hazards. The value of the built stock in the context of a city or a country is critical for risk modelling applications as it allows for the upper bound in potential losses to be established. Under the World Bank probabilistic disaster risk assessment - Country Disaster Risk Profiles (CDRP) Program and rapid post-disaster loss analyses in CATDAT, key methodologies have been developed that quantify the asset exposure of a country. In this study, we assess the complementary methods determining value of building stock through capital investment data vs aggregated ground up values based on built area and unit cost of construction analyses. Different approaches to modelling exposure around the world, have resulted in estimated values of built assets of some countries differing by order(s) of magnitude. Using the aforementioned methodology of comparing investment data based capital stock and bottom-up unit cost of construction values per square meter of assets; a suitable range of capital stock estimates for built assets have been created. A blind test format was undertaken to compare the two types of approaches from top-down (investment) and bottom-up (construction cost per unit), In many cases, census data, demographic, engineering and construction cost data are key for bottom-up calculations from previous years. Similarly for the top-down investment approach, distributed GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) data is also required. Over the past few years, numerous studies have been undertaken through the World Bank Caribbean and Central America disaster risk assessment program adopting this methodology initially developed by Gunasekera et al. (2015). The range of values of the building stock is tested for around 15 countries. In addition, three types of costs - Reconstruction cost

  16. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.;

    2009-01-01

    the area forward. Three possible approaches to safety assessment and risk assessment for allergenic foods were presented and discussed: safety assessment using NOAEL/LOAEL and uncertainty factors, safety assessment using Benchmark Dose and Margin of Exposure (MoE), and risk assessment using probabilistic...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic...

  17. On the use of hierarchical probabilistic models for characterizing and managing uncertainty in risk/safety assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodell, Ralph L; Chen, James J

    2007-04-01

    A general probabilistically-based approach is proposed for both cancer and noncancer risk/safety assessments. The familiar framework of the original ADI/RfD formulation is used, substituting in the numerator a benchmark dose derived from a hierarchical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model and in the denominator a unitary uncertainty factor derived from a hierarchical animal/average human/sensitive human model. The empirical probability distributions of the numerator and denominator can be combined to produce an empirical human-equivalent distribution for an animal-derived benchmark dose in external-exposure units.

  18. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing foodregulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  19. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SIMONBROOKE-TAYLOR

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supple,The World Trade Oranization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.The relevant international organization for food standards,the Codex Alimentarius Commission,recognises risk analysis,and its component parts risk assessment,risk management and risk communication as the basis for scientific decision-making,Risk assessment comprises two activities:hazard evaluation;and exposure estimation.A hazard may be chemical,microbiological or nutritional in origin,The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation y four examples involving:(1) food additives,(2) microiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses,(3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  20. A model for assessing water quality risk in catchments prone to wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhans, Christoph; Smith, Hugh; Chong, Derek; Nyman, Petter; Lane, Patrick; Sheridan, Gary

    2017-04-01

    Post-fire debris flows can have erosion rates up to three orders of magnitude higher than background rates. They are major sources of fine suspended sediment, which is critical to the safety of water supply from forested catchments. Fire can cover parts or all of these large catchments and burn severity is often heterogeneous. The probability of spatial and temporal overlap of fire disturbance and rainfall events, and the susceptibility of hillslopes to severe erosion determine the risk to water quality. Here we present a model to calculate recurrence intervals of high magnitude sediment delivery from runoff-generated debris flows to a reservoir in a large catchment (>100 km2) accounting for heterogeneous burn conditions. Debris flow initiation was modelled with indicators of surface runoff and soil surface erodibility. Debris flow volume was calculated with an empirical model, and fine sediment delivery was calculated using simple, expert-based assumptions. In a Monte-Carlo simulation, wildfire was modelled with a fire spread model using historic data on weather and ignition probabilities for a forested catchment in central Victoria, Australia. Multiple high intensity storms covering the study catchment were simulated using Intensity-Frequency-Duration relationships, and the runoff indicator calculated with a runoff model for hillslopes. A sensitivity analysis showed that fine sediment is most sensitive to variables related to the texture of the source material, debris flow volume estimation, and the proportion of fine sediment transported to the reservoir. As a measure of indirect validation, denudation rates of 4.6 - 28.5 mm ka-1 were estimated and compared well to other studies in the region. From the results it was extrapolated that in the absence of fire management intervention the critical sediment concentrations in the studied reservoir could be exceeded in intervals of 18 - 124 years.

  1. A model for assessing water quality risk in catchments prone to wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhans, Christoph; Smith, Hugh G.; Chong, Derek M. O.; Nyman, Petter; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Sheridan, Gary J.

    2016-03-01

    Post-fire debris flows can have erosion rates up to three orders of magnitude higher than background rates. They are major sources of fine suspended sediment, which is critical to the safety of water supply from forested catchments. Fire can cover parts or all of these large catchments and burn severity is often heterogeneous. The probability of spatial and temporal overlap of fire disturbance and rainfall events, and the susceptibility of hillslopes to severe erosion determine the risk to water quality. Here we present a model to calculate recurrence intervals of high magnitude sediment delivery from runoff-generated debris flows to a reservoir in a large catchment (>100 km2) accounting for heterogeneous burn conditions. Debris flow initiation was modelled with indicators of surface runoff and soil surface erodibility. Debris flow volume was calculated with an empirical model, and fine sediment delivery was calculated using simple, expert-based assumptions. In a Monte-Carlo simulation, wildfire was modelled with a fire spread model using historic data on weather and ignition probabilities for a forested catchment in central Victoria, Australia. Multiple high intensity storms covering the study catchment were simulated using Intensity-Frequency-Duration relationships, and the runoff indicator calculated with a runoff model for hillslopes. A sensitivity analysis showed that fine sediment is most sensitive to variables related to the texture of the source material, debris flow volume estimation, and the proportion of fine sediment transported to the reservoir. As a measure of indirect validation, denudation rates of 4.6-28.5 mm ka-1 were estimated and compared well to other studies in the region. From the results it was extrapolated that in the absence of fire management intervention the critical sediment concentrations in the studied reservoir could be exceeded in intervals of 18-124 years.

  2. Quantitative risk assessment relating to adventitious presence of allergens in food: a probabilistic model applied to peanut in chocolate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimbaud, Loup; Heraud, Fanny; La Vieille, Sébastien; Leblanc, Jean-Charles; Crepet, Amélie

    2010-01-01

    Peanut allergy is a public health concern, owing to the high prevalence in France and the severity of the reactions. Despite peanut-containing product avoidance diets, a risk may exist due to the adventitious presence of peanut allergens in a wide range of food products. Peanut is not mentioned in their ingredients list, but precautionary labeling is often present. A method of quantifying the risk of allergic reactions following the consumption of such products is developed, taking the example of peanut in chocolate tablets. The occurrence of adventitious peanut proteins in chocolate and the dose-response relationship are estimated with a Bayesian approach using available published data. The consumption pattern is described by the French individual consumption survey INCA2. Risk simulations are performed using second-order Monte Carlo simulations, which separately propagates variability and uncertainty of the model input variables. Peanut allergens occur in approximately 36% of the chocolates, leading to a mean exposure level of 0.2 mg of peanut proteins per eating occasion. The estimated risk of reaction averages 0.57% per eating occasion for peanut-allergic adults. The 95% values of the risk stand between 0 and 3.61%, which illustrates the risk variability. The uncertainty, represented by the 95% credible intervals, is concentrated around these risk estimates. Children have similar results. The conclusion is that adventitious peanut allergens induce a risk of reaction for a part of the French peanut-allergic population. The method developed can be generalized to assess the risk due to the consumption of every foodstuff potentially contaminated by allergens.

  3. Assessing the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for risk analyses in coastal areas: a stochastic storm surge model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Wahl

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a methodology to stochastically simulate a large number of storm surge scenarios (here: 10 million. The applied model is very cheap in computation time and will contribute to improve the overall results from integrated risk analyses in coastal areas. Initially, the observed storm surge events from the tide gauges of Cuxhaven (located in the Elbe estuary and Hörnum (located in the southeast of Sylt Island are parameterised by taking into account 25 parameters (19 sea level parameters and 6 time parameters. Throughout the paper, the total water levels are considered. The astronomical tides are semidiurnal in the investigation area with a tidal range >2 m. The second step of the stochastic simulation consists in fitting parametric distribution functions to the data sets resulting from the parameterisation. The distribution functions are then used to run Monte-Carlo-Simulations. Based on the simulation results, a large number of storm surge scenarios are reconstructed. Parameter interdependencies are considered and different filter functions are applied to avoid inconsistencies. Storm surge scenarios, which are of interest for risk analyses, can easily be extracted from the results.

  4. Using a network model to assess risk of forest pest spread via recreational travel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank H Koch

    Full Text Available Long-distance dispersal pathways, which frequently relate to human activities, facilitate the spread of alien species. One pathway of concern in North America is the possible spread of forest pests in firewood carried by visitors to campgrounds or recreational facilities. We present a network model depicting the movement of campers and, by extension, potentially infested firewood. We constructed the model from US National Recreation Reservation Service data documenting more than seven million visitor reservations (including visitors from Canada at campgrounds nationwide. This bi-directional model can be used to identify likely origin and destination locations for a camper-transported pest. To support broad-scale decision making, we used the model to generate summary maps for 48 US states and seven Canadian provinces that depict the most likely origins of campers traveling from outside the target state or province. The maps generally showed one of two basic spatial patterns of out-of-state (or out-of-province origin risk. In the eastern United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were usually found in a localized region restricted to portions of adjacent states. In the western United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were typically associated with major urban areas located far from the state of interest. A few states and the Canadian provinces showed characteristics of both patterns. These model outputs can guide deployment of resources for surveillance, firewood inspections, or other activities. Significantly, the contrasting map patterns indicate that no single response strategy is appropriate for all states and provinces. If most out-of-state campers are traveling from distant areas, it may be effective to deploy resources at key points along major roads (e.g., interstate highways, since these locations could effectively represent bottlenecks of camper movement. If most campers are from nearby areas, they may

  5. Extended sorption partitioning models for pesticide leaching risk assessments: Can we improve upon the k{sub oc} concept?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jarvis, Nicholas, E-mail: nicholas.jarvis@slu.se

    2016-01-01

    Models used to assess leaching of pesticides to groundwater still rely on the sorption k{sub oc} value, even though its limitations have been known for several decades, especially for soils of low organic carbon content (i.e. subsoils). This is mainly because the general applicability of any improved model approach that is also simple enough to use for regulatory purposes has not been demonstrated. The objective of this study was to test and compare alternative models of sorption that could be useful in pesticide risk assessment and management. To this end, a database containing the results of batch sorption experiments for pesticides was compiled from published studies in the literature, which placed at least as much emphasis on measurements in subsoil horizons as in topsoil. The database includes 785 data entries from 34 different published studies and for 21 different active substances. Overall, the apparent k{sub oc} value, k{sub oc(app)}, roughly doubled as the soil organic carbon content decreased by a factor of ten. Nevertheless, in nearly half of the individual datasets, a constant k{sub oc} value proved to be an adequate model. Further analysis showed that significant increases in k{sub oc(app)} in subsoil were found primarily for the more weakly adsorbing compounds (k{sub oc} values < ca. 100–200 L kg{sup −1}) and that sorption to clay in loamy and clayey-textured subsoil horizons was the main cause. Tests with the MACRO model demonstrated that sorption to clay minerals may significantly affect the outcome of regulatory exposure and risk assessments for leaching to groundwater. The k{sub oc} concept currently used in leaching models should therefore be replaced by an alternative approach that gives a more realistic representation of pesticide sorption in subsoil. The two alternative models tested in this study appear to have widespread applicability and are also simple enough to parameterize for this purpose. - Highlights: • A database was collated

  6. Evaluation of periodontal risk assessment model among adults aged 30-60 years attending KLE Dental College, Belgaum: A hospital-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eshwar Shruthi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim : The aim of the present study was to evaluate the periodontal risk of individuals using the modified periodontal risk assessment model. Materials and Methods: Adult subjects aged 30-60 years attending the out patient department of Institute of Dental Sciences, Belgaum in a week′s period were screened and 30 among those who met the criteria were included in the study. Complete history and examination of the oral cavity was done using mouth mirror and community periodontal index probes. Periodontal status was recorded using community periodontal index. Systemic conditions like hypertension and diabetes was assessed by suitable investigations. All the risk factors were plotted on a model using Microsoft excel and periodontal risk was assessed based on the findings and categorized as low, moderate and high risk. Results: Among 30 patients 13 were in low risk group, 10 in moderate risk group, and 7 in high risk group identified by proposed model given by Vishwa Chandra whereas 20 patients were in low risk group, 5 in moderate risk group and 5 in high risk group when identified Lang and Tonetti model (2003. Conclusion: In conclusion the use of risk assessment tool would result in reduction of complex therapies and would prevent the future effects of periodontal disease such as bone and tooth loss.

  7. A Risk Assessment Model for Reduced Aircraft Separation: A Quantitative Method to Evaluate the Safety of Free Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassell, Rick; Smith, Alex; Connors, Mary; Wojciech, Jack; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    As new technologies and procedures are introduced into the National Airspace System, whether they are intended to improve efficiency, capacity, or safety level, the quantification of potential changes in safety levels is of vital concern. Applications of technology can improve safety levels and allow the reduction of separation standards. An excellent example is the Precision Runway Monitor (PRM). By taking advantage of the surveillance and display advances of PRM, airports can run instrument parallel approaches to runways separated by 3400 feet with the same level of safety as parallel approaches to runways separated by 4300 feet using the standard technology. Despite a wealth of information from flight operations and testing programs, there is no readily quantifiable relationship between numerical safety levels and the separation standards that apply to aircraft on final approach. This paper presents a modeling approach to quantify the risk associated with reducing separation on final approach. Reducing aircraft separation, both laterally and longitudinally, has been the goal of several aviation R&D programs over the past several years. Many of these programs have focused on technological solutions to improve navigation accuracy, surveillance accuracy, aircraft situational awareness, controller situational awareness, and other technical and operational factors that are vital to maintaining flight safety. The risk assessment model relates different types of potential aircraft accidents and incidents and their contribution to overall accident risk. The framework links accident risks to a hierarchy of failsafe mechanisms characterized by procedures and interventions. The model will be used to assess the overall level of safety associated with reducing separation standards and the introduction of new technology and procedures, as envisaged under the Free Flight concept. The model framework can be applied to various aircraft scenarios, including parallel and in

  8. A statistical simulation model for field testing of non-target organisms in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goedhart, Paul W; van der Voet, Hilko; Baldacchino, Ferdinando; Arpaia, Salvatore

    2014-04-01

    Genetic modification of plants may result in unintended effects causing potentially adverse effects on the environment. A comparative safety assessment is therefore required by authorities, such as the European Food Safety Authority, in which the genetically modified plant is compared with its conventional counterpart. Part of the environmental risk assessment is a comparative field experiment in which the effect on non-target organisms is compared. Statistical analysis of such trials come in two flavors: difference testing and equivalence testing. It is important to know the statistical properties of these, for example, the power to detect environmental change of a given magnitude, before the start of an experiment. Such prospective power analysis can best be studied by means of a statistical simulation model. This paper describes a general framework for simulating data typically encountered in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. The simulation model, available as Supplementary Material, can be used to generate count data having different statistical distributions possibly with excess-zeros. In addition the model employs completely randomized or randomized block experiments, can be used to simulate single or multiple trials across environments, enables genotype by environment interaction by adding random variety effects, and finally includes repeated measures in time following a constant, linear or quadratic pattern in time possibly with some form of autocorrelation. The model also allows to add a set of reference varieties to the GM plants and its comparator to assess the natural variation which can then be used to set limits of concern for equivalence testing. The different count distributions are described in some detail and some examples of how to use the simulation model to study various aspects, including a prospective power analysis, are provided.

  9. Using remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems for Rift Valley fever risk assessment in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedrow, Christine Atkins

    transmission to humans. Maps delineating the geographic areas in Virginia with highest risk for RVF establishment in mosquito populations and RVF disease transmission to human populations were generated in a GIS using human, domestic animal, and white-tailed deer population estimates and the MaxEnt potential RVF competent vector species distribution prediction. The candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution and RVF risk maps presented in this study can help vector control agencies and public health officials focus Rift Valley fever surveillance efforts in geographic areas with large co-located populations of potential RVF competent vectors and human, domestic animal, and wildlife hosts. Keywords. Rift Valley fever, risk assessment, Ecological Niche Modeling, MaxEnt, Geographic Information System, remote sensing, Pearson's Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient, vectors, mosquito distribution, mosquito density, mosquito surveillance, United States, Virginia, domestic animals, white-tailed deer, ArcGIS

  10. Geometry reconstruction method for patient-specific finite element models for the assessment of tibia fracture risk in osteogenesis imperfecta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caouette, Christiane; Ikin, Nicole; Villemure, Isabelle; Arnoux, Pierre-Jean; Rauch, Frank; Aubin, Carl-Éric

    2017-04-01

    Lower limb deformation in children with osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) impairs ambulation and may lead to fracture. Corrective surgery is based on empirical assessment criteria. The objective was to develop a reconstruction method of the tibia for OI patients that could be used as input of a comprehensive finite element model to assess fracture risks. Data were obtained from three children with OI and tibia deformities. Four pQCT scans were registered to biplanar radiographs, and a template mesh was deformed to fit the bone outline. Cortical bone thickness was computed. Sensitivity of the model to missing slices of pQCT was assessed by calculating maximal von Mises stress for a vertical hopping load case. Sensitivity of the model to ±5 % of cortical thickness measurements was assessed by calculating loads at fracture. Difference between the mesh contour and bone outline on the radiographs was below 1 mm. Removal of one pQCT slice increased maximal von Mises stress by up to 10 %. Simulated ±5 % variation of cortical bone thickness leads to variations of up to 4.1 % on predicted fracture loads. Using clinically available tibia imaging from children with OI, the developed reconstruction method allowed the building of patient-specific finite element models.

  11. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  12. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  13. Multilevel modeling versus cross-sectional analysis for assessing the longitudinal tracking of cardiovascular risk factors over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xanthakis, Vanessa; Sullivan, Lisa M; Vasan, Ramachandran S

    2013-12-10

    Correlated data are obtained in longitudinal epidemiological studies, where repeated measurements are taken on individuals or groups over time. Such longitudinal data are ideally analyzed using multilevel modeling approaches, which appropriately account for the correlations in repeated responses in the same individual. Commonly used regression models are inappropriate as they assume that measurements are independent. In this tutorial, we use multilevel modeling to demonstrate its use for analysis of correlated data obtained from serial examinations on individuals. We focus on cardiovascular epidemiological research where investigators are often interested in quantifying the relations between clinical risk factors and outcome measures (X and Y, respectively), where X and Y are measured repeatedly over time, for example, using serial observations on participants attending multiple examinations in a longitudinal cohort study. For instance, it may be of interest to evaluate the relations between serial measures of left ventricular mass (outcome) and of its potential determinants (i.e., body mass index and blood pressure), both of which are measured over time. In this tutorial, we describe the application of multilevel modeling to cardiovascular risk factors and outcome data (using serial echocardiographic data as an example of an outcome). We suggest an analytical approach that can be implemented to evaluate relations between any potential outcome of interest and risk factors, including assessment of random effects and nonlinear relations. We illustrate these steps using echocardiographic data from the Framingham Heart Study with SAS PROC MIXED.

  14. Levels and occupational health risk assessment of trace metals in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Levels and occupational health risk assessment of trace metals in soils from ... African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology ... The trace metal levels were subjected to risk assessment model to estimate toxic risks due to ...

  15. Investigation of nuclear nano-morphology marker as a biomarker for cancer risk assessment using a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bista, Rajan K; Uttam, Shikhar; Hartman, Douglas J; Qiu, Wei; Yu, Jian; Zhang, Lin; Brand, Randall E; Liu, Yang

    2012-06-01

    The development of accurate and clinically applicable tools to assess cancer risk is essential to define candidates to undergo screening for early-stage cancers at a curable stage or provide a novel method to monitor chemoprevention treatments. With the use of our recently developed optical technology--spatial-domain low-coherence quantitative phase microscopy (SL-QPM), we have derived a novel optical biomarker characterized by structure-derived optical path length (OPL) properties from the cell nucleus on the standard histology and cytology specimens, which quantifies the nano-structural alterations within the cell nucleus at the nanoscale sensitivity, referred to as nano-morphology marker. The aim of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of the nuclear nano-morphology marker from histologically normal cells, extracted directly from the standard histology specimens, to detect early-stage carcinogenesis, assess cancer risk, and monitor the effect of chemopreventive treatment. We used a well-established mouse model of spontaneous carcinogenesis--Apc(Min) mice, which develop multiple intestinal adenomas (Min) due to a germline mutation in the adenomatous polyposis coli (Apc) gene. We found that the nuclear nano-morphology marker quantified by OPL detects the development of carcinogenesis from histologically normal intestinal epithelial cells, even at an early pre-adenomatous stage (six weeks). It also exhibits a good temporal correlation with the small intestine that parallels the development of carcinogenesis and cancer risk. To further assess its ability to monitor the efficacy of chemopreventive agents, we used an established chemopreventive agent, sulindac. The nuclear nano-morphology marker is reversed toward normal after a prolonged treatment. Therefore, our proof-of-concept study establishes the feasibility of the SL-QPM derived nuclear nano-morphology marker OPL as a promising, simple and clinically applicable biomarker for cancer risk assessment and

  16. Investigation of nuclear nano-morphology marker as a biomarker for cancer risk assessment using a mouse model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bista, Rajan K.; Uttam, Shikhar; Hartman, Douglas J.; Qiu, Wei; Yu, Jian; Zhang, Lin; Brand, Randall E.; Liu, Yang

    2012-06-01

    The development of accurate and clinically applicable tools to assess cancer risk is essential to define candidates to undergo screening for early-stage cancers at a curable stage or provide a novel method to monitor chemoprevention treatments. With the use of our recently developed optical technology--spatial-domain low-coherence quantitative phase microscopy (SL-QPM), we have derived a novel optical biomarker characterized by structure-derived optical path length (OPL) properties from the cell nucleus on the standard histology and cytology specimens, which quantifies the nano-structural alterations within the cell nucleus at the nanoscale sensitivity, referred to as nano-morphology marker. The aim of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of the nuclear nano-morphology marker from histologically normal cells, extracted directly from the standard histology specimens, to detect early-stage carcinogenesis, assess cancer risk, and monitor the effect of chemopreventive treatment. We used a well-established mouse model of spontaneous carcinogenesis--ApcMin mice, which develop multiple intestinal adenomas (Min) due to a germline mutation in the adenomatous polyposis coli (Apc) gene. We found that the nuclear nano-morphology marker quantified by OPL detects the development of carcinogenesis from histologically normal intestinal epithelial cells, even at an early pre-adenomatous stage (six weeks). It also exhibits a good temporal correlation with the small intestine that parallels the development of carcinogenesis and cancer risk. To further assess its ability to monitor the efficacy of chemopreventive agents, we used an established chemopreventive agent, sulindac. The nuclear nano-morphology marker is reversed toward normal after a prolonged treatment. Therefore, our proof-of-concept study establishes the feasibility of the SL-QPM derived nuclear nano-morphology marker OPL as a promising, simple and clinically applicable biomarker for cancer risk assessment and

  17. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  18. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  19. Melanoma risk prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Jelena

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were

  20. DOSE-RESPONSE MODELING FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF CUMULATIVE RISK DUE TO EXPOSURE TO N-METHYL CARBAMATE PESTICIDES

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPAs N-Methyl Carbamate Cumulative Risk Assessment (NMCRA) assesses the effect on acetylcholine esterase (AChE) activity of exposure to 10 N-methyl carbamate (NMC) pesticides through dietary, drinking water, and residential exposures.

  1. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  2. Regional groundwater flow and tritium transport modeling and risk assessment of the underground test area, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1997-10-01

    underground testing areas on a regional scale. The groundwater flow model was used in conjunction with a particle-tracking code to define the pathlines followed by groundwater particles originating from 415 points associated with 253 nuclear test locations. Three of the most rapid pathlines were selected for transport simulations. These pathlines are associated with three nuclear test locations, each representing one of the three largest testing areas. These testing locations are: BOURBON on Yucca Flat, HOUSTON on Central Pahute Mesa, and TYBO on Western Pahute Mesa. One-dimensional stochastic tritium transport simulations were performed for the three pathlines using the Monte Carlo method with Latin hypercube sampling. For the BOURBON and TYBO pathlines, sources of tritium from other tests located along the same pathline were included in the simulations. Sensitivity analyses were also performed on the transport model to evaluate the uncertainties associated with the geologic model, the rates of groundwater flow, the tritium source, and the transport parameters. Tritium concentration predictions were found to be mostly sensitive to the regional geology in controlling the horizontal and vertical position of transport pathways. The simulated concentrations are also sensitive to matrix diffusion, an important mechanism governing the migration of tritium in fractured carbonate and volcanic rocks. Source term concentration uncertainty is most important near the test locations and decreases in importance as the travel distance increases. The uncertainty on groundwater flow rates is as important as that on matrix diffusion at downgradient locations. The risk assessment was performed to provide conservative and bounding estimates of the potential risks to human health and the environment from tritium in groundwater. Risk models were designed by coupling scenario-specific tritium intake with tritium dose models and cancer and genetic risk estimates using the Monte Carlo method

  3. Quantitative Metrics and Risk Assessment: The Three Tenets Model of Cybersecurity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Hughes

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Progress in operational cybersecurity has been difficult to demonstrate. In spite of the considerable research and development investments made for more than 30 years, many government, industrial, financial, and consumer information systems continue to be successfully attacked and exploited on a routine basis. One of the main reasons that progress has been so meagre is that most technical cybersecurity solutions that have been proposed to-date have been point solutions that fail to address operational tradeoffs, implementation costs, and consequent adversary adaptations across the full spectrum of vulnerabilities. Furthermore, sound prescriptive security principles previously established, such as the Orange Book, have been difficult to apply given current system complexity and acquisition approaches. To address these issues, the authors have developed threat-based descriptive methodologies to more completely identify system vulnerabilities, to quantify the effectiveness of possible protections against those vulnerabilities, and to evaluate operational consequences and tradeoffs of possible protections. This article begins with a discussion of the tradeoffs among seemingly different system security properties such as confidentiality, integrity, and availability. We develop a quantitative framework for understanding these tradeoffs and the issues that arise when those security properties are all in play within an organization. Once security goals and candidate protections are identified, risk/benefit assessments can be performed using a novel multidisciplinary approach, called “QuERIES.” The article ends with a threat-driven quantitative methodology, called “The Three Tenets”, for identifying vulnerabilities and countermeasures in networked cyber-physical systems. The goal of this article is to offer operational guidance, based on the techniques presented here, for informed decision making about cyber-physical system security.

  4. An integrated risk assessment model of township-scaled land subsidence based on an evidential reasoning algorithm and fuzzy set theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu; Shu, Longcang; Burbey, Thomas J

    2014-04-01

    Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor-level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi-Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information--quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise--to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.

  5. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung-Hee Choi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

  6. Assessing the Role of Climate Variability on Liver Fluke Risk in the UK Through Mechanistic Hydro-Epidemiological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrame, L.; Dunne, T.; Rose, H.; Walker, J.; Morgan, E.; Vickerman, P.; Wagener, T.

    2016-12-01

    Liver fluke is a flatworm parasite infecting grazing animals worldwide. In the UK, it causes considerable production losses to cattle and sheep industries and costs farmers millions of pounds each year due to reduced growth rates and lower milk yields. Large part of the parasite life-cycle takes place outside of the host, with its survival and development strongly controlled by climatic and hydrologic conditions. Evidence of climate-driven changes in the distribution and seasonality of fluke disease already exists, as the infection is increasingly expanding to new areas and becoming a year-round problem. Therefore, it is crucial to assess current and potential future impacts of climate variability on the disease to guide interventions at the farm scale and mitigate risk. Climate-based fluke risk models have been available since the 1950s, however, they are based on empirical relationships derived between historical climate and incidence data, and thus are unlikely to be robust for simulating risk under changing conditions. Moreover, they are not dynamic, but estimate risk over large regions in the UK based on monthly average climate conditions, so they do not allow investigating the effects of climate variability for supporting farmers' decisions. In this study, we introduce a mechanistic model for fluke, which represents habitat suitability for disease development at 25m resolution with a daily time step, explicitly linking the parasite life-cycle to key hydro-climate conditions. The model is used on a case study in the UK and sensitivity analysis is performed to better understand the role of climate variability on the space-time dynamics of the disease, while explicitly accounting for uncertainties. Comparisons are presented with experts' knowledge and a widely used empirical model.

  7. Application of IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of children aged 61–84 months old in central China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Yanyan [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Hu, Jia [Suzhou Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Suzhou, Jiangsu (China); Wu, Wei [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Liu, Shuyun [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Li, Mei [Hanyang Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Yao, Na; Chen, Jianwei [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Ye, Linxiang [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Wang, Qi, E-mail: lwq95@126.com [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Zhou, Yikai, E-mail: zhouyk@mails.tjmu.edu.cn [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China)

    2016-01-15

    Few studies have focused on the accuracy of using the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model in Chinese children with site- and age-specific exposure data. This study aimed to validate the accuracy and sensitivity of the IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old. A total of 760 children were enrolled from two respective counties in Central China by using random cluster sampling method. Blood lead levels (BLLs) of all subjects were determined using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry, as well as that in the environmental media, such as air, drinking water, soil, dust and food. Age- and site-specific time-activity patterns and water consumption were evaluated by using questionnaires for children. Exposure parameters including outdoor and indoor activity time, ventilation rate and water consumption in this study were different from the default values of the IEUBK model. Statistical analysis revealed no significant differences between the predicted and observed BLLs. Diet and soil/dust lead intake contributed approximately 83.39% (57.40%–93.84% range) and 15.18% (3.25%–41.60% range) of total lead intake, respectively. These findings showed that the IEUBK model is suitable for lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old and diet acts as an important lead source. - Highlights: • The first time to fit and discuss the IEUBK model in China based on comprehensive local children exposure parameters. • Two different exposure scenarios to apply the IEUBK model in different conditions. • The first time to report the ventilation rate in Chinese children aged 61 to 84 months. • Highlight the role of dietary to lead intake for Chinese children.

  8. The use of modelling and probabilistic methods in cumulative risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosgra, S.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis was realized as part of the EU integrated project SAFE FOODS, the overall objective of which was to change the scope of decision-making on food safety from single risks to considering foods as sources of risks, benefits and costs associated with their production and consumption, and taki

  9. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Kriticos, D.J.; Baker, R.H.A.; Battisti, A.; Brunel, S.; Dupin, M.; Eyre, D.; Faccoli, M.; Ilieva, Z.; Kenis, M.; Knight, J.; Reynaud, P.; Yart, A.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no sui

  10. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  11. Dose-response modeling : Evaluation, application, and development of procedures for benchmark dose analysis in health risk assessment of chemical substances

    OpenAIRE

    Sand, Salomon

    2005-01-01

    In this thesis, dose-response modeling and procedures for benchmark dose (BMD) analysis in health risk assessment of chemical substances have been investigated. The BMD method has been proposed as an alternative to the NOAEL (no-observedadverse- effect-level) approach in health risk assessment of non-genotoxic agents. According to the BMD concept, a dose-response model is fitted to data and the BMD is defined as the dose causing a predetermined change in response. A lowe...

  12. How to use mechanistic effect models in environmental risk assessment of pesticides: Case studies and recommendations from the SETAC workshop MODELINK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hommen, Udo; Forbes, Valery; Grimm, Volker; Preuss, Thomas G; Thorbek, Pernille; Ducrot, Virginie

    2016-01-01

    Mechanistic effect models (MEMs) are useful tools for ecological risk assessment of chemicals to complement experimentation. However, currently no recommendations exist for how to use them in risk assessments. Therefore, the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) MODELINK workshop aimed at providing guidance for when and how to apply MEMs in regulatory risk assessments. The workshop focused on risk assessment of plant protection products under Regulation (EC) No 1107/2009 using MEMs at the organism and population levels. Realistic applications of MEMs were demonstrated in 6 case studies covering assessments for plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates in aquatic and terrestrial habitats. From the case studies and their evaluation, 12 recommendations on the future use of MEMs were formulated, addressing the issues of how to translate specific protection goals into workable questions, how to select species and scenarios to be modeled, and where and how to fit MEMs into current and future risk assessment schemes. The most important recommendations are that protection goals should be made more quantitative; the species to be modeled must be vulnerable not only regarding toxic effects but also regarding their life history and dispersal traits; the models should be as realistic as possible for a specific risk assessment question, and the level of conservatism required for a specific risk assessment should be reached by designing appropriately conservative environmental and exposure scenarios; scenarios should include different regions of the European Union (EU) and different crops; in the long run, generic MEMs covering relevant species based on representative scenarios should be developed, which will require EU-level joint initiatives of all stakeholders involved. The main conclusion from the MODELINK workshop is that the considerable effort required for making MEMs an integral part of environmental risk assessment of pesticides is worthwhile, because

  13. Assessing the risk of ignition in the Russian far east within a modeling framework of fire threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loboda, Tatiana V; Csiszar, Ivan A

    2007-04-01

    The forests of high biological importance in the Russian Far East (RFE) have been experiencing increasing pressure from growing demands for natural resources under the changing economy of post-Soviet Russia. This pressure is further amplified by the rising threat of large and catastrophic fire occurrence, which threatens both the resources and the economic potential of the region. In this paper we introduce a conceptual Fire Threat Model (FTM) and use it to provide quantitative assessment of the risk of ignition in the Russian Far East. The remotely sensed data driven FTM is aimed at evaluating potential wildland fire occurrence and its impact and recovery potential for a given resource. This model is intended for use by resource managers to assist in assessing current levels of fire threat to a given resource, projecting the changes in fire threat under changing climate and land use, and evaluating the efficiency of various management approaches aimed at minimizing the fire impact. Risk of ignition (one of the major uncertainties within fire threat modeling) was analyzed using the MODIS active fire product. The risk of ignition in the RFE is shown to be highly variable in spatial and temporal domains. However, the number of ignition points is not directly proportional to the amount of fire occurrence in the area. Fire ignitions in the RFE are strongly linked to anthropogenic activity (transportation routes, settlements, and land use). An increase in the number of fire ignitions during summer months could be attributed to (1) disruption of the summer monsoons and subsequent changes in fire weather and (2) an increase in natural sources of fire ignitions.

  14. Radiological risk assessment and biosphere modelling for radioactive waste disposal in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennwald, M S; van Dorp, F

    2009-12-01

    Long-term safety assessments for geological disposal of radioactive waste in Switzerland involve the demonstration that the annual radiation dose to humans due to the potential release of radionuclides from the waste repository into the biosphere will not exceed the regulatory limit of 0.1 mSv. Here, we describe the simple but robust approach used by Nagra (Swiss National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste) to quantify the dose to humans as a result to time-dependent release of radionuclides from the geosphere into the biosphere. The model calculates the concentrations of radionuclides in different terrestrial and aquatic compartments of the surface environment. The fluxes of water and solids within the environment are the drivers for the exchange of radionuclides between these compartments. The calculated radionuclide concentrations in the biosphere are then used to estimate the radiation doses to humans due to various exposure paths (e.g. ingestion of radionuclides via drinking water and food, inhalation of radionuclides, external irradiation from radionuclides in soils). In this paper we also discuss recent new achievements and planned future work.

  15. Establish susceptibility and risk assessment models for rainfall-induced landslide: A case in Central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chunhung; Huang, Jyuntai

    2017-04-01

    .823 for LR. The study normalized the susceptibility value range of three landslide susceptibility models to 0 to 1 to deeply compare the model performance. The normalized landslide susceptibility value > 0.5 and ≦0.5 are regarded as predicted-landslide area and predicted-not-landslide area. The ratio of the area in the predicted-landslide area to the total area is 3.0% for FR, 71.4% for WOE, and 26.5% for LR. And the correct ratio is 65.5% for FR, 61.9% for WOE, 74.5% for LR. The study adopted 14 rainfall stations with more than 20 years daily rainfall data in Renai Township to estimate the 24 hrs accumulated rainfall with different RPYs. Landslide susceptibility map under 24 hrs accumulated rainfall distribution with different RPYs is used to estimate the landslide disaster location and scale. The landslide risk under different RPYs in Renai Township is calculated as 2.62 billion for 5 RPYs, 3.06 billion for 10 RPYs, 4.69 billion for 25 RPYs, 5.97 billion for 50 RPYs, 6.98 billion for 100 RPYs, and 8.23 billion for 200 RPYs, respectively.

  16. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large nu...

  17. Dispersion modeling and health risk assessment of dioxin emissions from a municipal solid waste incinerator in Hangzhou, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-jun MA; Xu-guang JIANG; Yu-qi JIN; Hong-mei LIU; Xiao-dong LI; Tong CHEN; Jian-hua YAN

    2012-01-01

    The emission of dioxins from municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) has become a widespread concern.The effect of meteorological parameters (wind speed,atmospheric stability and mixing height) on the hourly ground level concentration (GLC) of dioxins was estimated using air dispersion models.Moreover,the health risks of dioxin exposure were evaluated for children and adults using the Nouwen equation.The total environmental exposure via air inhalation and food mgestion was calculated,based on linear fit equations.The results indicate that potentially severe pollution from dioxins occurs at a wind speed of 1.5 m/s with atmospheric stability class F.In addition,local residents in the study area are exposed to severe weather conditions most of the time,and the risk exposures for children are far higher than those for adults.The total exposure for children far exceeds the tolerable daily intake of dioxin recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) of 1-4 pg TEQ/(kg·d) under severe weather conditions.Results from modeling calculations of health risk assessment were consistent with dioxin levels obtained during actual monitoring of emissions.

  18. Application of modeling tools for risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials in aquatic systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ondiaka, M

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Globally, engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are increasingly being used in nanoproducts to improve their performance. The multi-stage lifecycle of ENMs increases their potential risk profiles to different environmental systems, for example, due...

  19. The DYNAMO-HIA model: an efficient implementation of a risk factor/chronic disease Markov model for use in Health Impact Assessment (HIA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Lhachimi, Stefan K; van Baal, Pieter H M; Hoogenveen, Rudolf T; Smit, Henriette A; Mackenbach, Johan P; Nusselder, Wilma J

    2012-11-01

    In Health Impact Assessment (HIA), or priority-setting for health policy, effects of risk factors (exposures) on health need to be modeled, such as with a Markov model, in which exposure influences mortality and disease incidence rates. Because many risk factors are related to a variety of chronic diseases, these Markov models potentially contain a large number of states (risk factor and disease combinations), providing a challenge both technically (keeping down execution time and memory use) and practically (estimating the model parameters and retaining transparency). To meet this challenge, we propose an approach that combines micro-simulation of the exposure information with macro-simulation of the diseases and survival. This approach allows users to simulate exposure in detail while avoiding the need for large simulated populations because of the relative rareness of chronic disease events. Further efficiency is gained by splitting the disease state space into smaller spaces, each of which contains a cluster of diseases that is independent of the other clusters. The challenge of feasible input data requirements is met by including parameter calculation routines, which use marginal population data to estimate the transitions between states. As an illustration, we present the recently developed model DYNAMO-HIA (DYNAMIC MODEL for Health Impact Assessment) that implements this approach.

  20. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    The topics of regulation and risk assessment of nanomaterials have never been more relevant and controversial in Europe than they are at this point in time. In this entry, we present and discuss a number of major pieces of legislation relevant for the regulation of nanomaterials, including REACH...... Regulation. Chemical risk assessment provides a fundamental element in support of existing legislation. Risk assessment is normally said to consist of four elements, i.e., hazard identification, dose–response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Each of these four elements hold......, the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  1. The development of a glacio-hydrologic model in the river basin context: Applicability for climate change risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wi, S.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Brown, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    In high latitude and altitude regions of the world, melting water from snow and glacier is critical for domestic, agricultural and industrial water supply. These water supplies depending on the melting water are particularly vulnerable to changing climate caused by temperature increases and precipitation variation. A better understanding of how water availability change due to climate change impact in these regions is essential for water resources management. To achieve this goal, a recent research trend highlights the need of advancing hydrologic modeling tools with enhanced snow and glacier modeling capability. This study demonstrates a recently developed distributed glacio-hydrologic model that specifically targets the Himalayan region. We describe the model's development background, underlying concepts, and some typical applications of the model and test it as a tool for assessing climate change risk for snow and glacier-fed river basins. Enhanced snow and glacier modules based on temperature-energy index are the primary feature of the model. We demonstrate the model's applicability in case studies for the Upper Trishuli River Basin and the Koshi River Basin in Nepal and detailed climate change impact on water resources in these snow and glacier dominated are presented.

  2. A combined approach of experiments and modelling for the implementation of freshwater copepods in ecological risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Kulkarni, Devdutt

    2014-01-01

    Standardized test guidelines used in ecological risk assessment (ERA) consider a relatively small set of test species. For instance in most standard risk assessments, Daphnia magna is the only required species representing freshwater invertebrates which assumes that tests with such standard species in combination with relatively large assessment factors are protective for other species in the field. Standard test species are usually selected based on intrinsic sensitivity as well as practicab...

  3. Assessing threats to species at risk using stage-structured state-space models: mortality trends in skate populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, Douglas P; Jonsen, Ian D; Simon, James E; Myers, Ransom A

    2009-07-01

    Population models are needed to assess the threats to species at risk and to evaluate alternative management actions. Data to support modeling is limited for many species at risk, and commonly used approaches generally assume stationary vital rates, a questionable assumption given widespread ecosystem change. We describe a modeling approach that can be applied to time series of length composition data to estimate vital rates and test for changes in these rates. Our approach uses stage-structured population models fit within a Bayesian state-space model. This approach simultaneously allows for both process and observation uncertainty, and it facilitates incorporating prior information on population dynamics and on the monitoring process. We apply these models to populations of winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata) that have been designated as "endangered" or "threatened." These models indicate that natural mortality has decreased for juveniles and increased for adults in these populations. The declines observed in these populations had been attributed to unsustainable rates of bycatch in fisheries for other groundfishes; our analyses indicate that increased natural mortality of adults is also an important factor contributing to these declines. Adult natural mortality was positively related to grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) abundance, suggesting the hypothesis that increased adult mortality reflected increased predation by expanding grey seal herds. Population projections indicated that the threatened population would be expected to stabilize at a low level of abundance if all fishery removals were eliminated, but that the endangered population would likely continue to decline even in the absence of fishery removals. We note that time series of size distributions are available for most marine fish populations monitored by research surveys, and we suggest that a similar approach could be used to extract information from these time series in order to estimate mortality

  4. Assessing the Global Risk of Establishment of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) using CLIMEX and MaxEnt Niche Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G; Zhu, Hongyu; Zhang, Runzhi

    2015-08-01

    Accurate assessment of insect pest establishment risk is needed by national plant protection organizations to negotiate international trade of horticultural commodities that can potentially carry the pests and result in inadvertent introductions in the importing countries. We used mechanistic and correlative niche models to quantify and map the global patterns of the potential for establishment of codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), a major pest of apples, peaches, pears, and other pome and stone fruits, and a quarantine pest in countries where it currently does not occur. The mechanistic model CLIMEX was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, whereas the correlative model MaxEnt used species occurrences and climatic spatial data. Projected potential distribution from both models conformed well to the current known distribution of codling moth. None of the models predicted suitable environmental conditions in countries located between 20°N and 20°S potentially because of shorter photoperiod, and lack of chilling requirement (<60 d at ≤10°C) in these areas for codling moth to break diapause. Models predicted suitable conditions in South Korea and Japan where codling moth currently does not occur but where its preferred host species (i.e., apple) is present. Average annual temperature and latitude were the main environmental variables associated with codling moth distribution at global level. The predictive models developed in this study present the global risk of establishment of codling moth, and can be used for monitoring potential introductions of codling moth in different countries and by policy makers and trade negotiators in making science-based decisions. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. GrundRisk - Coupling of vertical and horizontal transport models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Rosenberg, Louise; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    This report presents the development of the GrundRisk model for contaminated site risk assessment.......This report presents the development of the GrundRisk model for contaminated site risk assessment....

  6. Driving risk assessment using near-crash database through data mining of tree-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianqiang; Zheng, Yang; Li, Xiaofei; Yu, Chenfei; Kodaka, Kenji; Li, Keqiang

    2015-11-01

    This paper considers a comprehensive naturalistic driving experiment to collect driving data under potential threats on actual Chinese roads. Using acquired real-world naturalistic driving data, a near-crash database is built, which contains vehicle status, potential crash objects, driving environment and road types, weather condition, and driver information and actions. The aims of this study are summarized into two aspects: (1) to cluster different driving-risk levels involved in near-crashes, and (2) to unveil the factors that greatly influence the driving-risk level. A novel method to quantify the driving-risk level of a near-crash scenario is proposed by clustering the braking process characteristics, namely maximum deceleration, average deceleration, and percentage reduction in vehicle kinetic energy. A classification and regression tree (CART) is employed to unveil the relationship among driving risk, driver/vehicle characteristics, and road environment. The results indicate that the velocity when braking, triggering factors, potential object type, and potential crash type exerted the greatest influence on the driving-risk levels in near-crashes.

  7. Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moss, Robert; Hickson, Roslyn I.; McVernon, Jodie; McCaw, James M.; Hort, Krishna; Black, Jim; Madden, John R.; Tran, Nhi H.; McBryde, Emma S.

    2016-01-01

    Background Effective response to emerging infectious disease (EID) threats relies on health care systems that can detect and contain localised outbreaks before they reach a national or international scale. The Asia-Pacific region contains low and middle income countries in which the risk of EID outbreaks is elevated and whose health care systems may require international support to effectively detect and respond to such events. The absence of comprehensive data on populations, health care systems and disease characteristics in this region makes risk assessment and decisions about the provision of such support challenging. Methodology/principal findings We describe a mathematical modelling framework that can inform this process by integrating available data sources, systematically explore the effects of uncertainty, and provide estimates of outbreak risk under a range of intervention scenarios. We illustrate the use of this framework in the context of a potential importation of Ebola Virus Disease into the Asia-Pacific region. Results suggest that, across a wide range of plausible scenarios, preemptive interventions supporting the timely detection of early cases provide substantially greater reductions in the probability of large outbreaks than interventions that support health care system capacity after an outbreak has commenced. Conclusions/significance Our study demonstrates how, in the presence of substantial uncertainty about health care system infrastructure and other relevant aspects of disease control, mathematical models can be used to assess the constraints that limited resources place upon the ability of local health care systems to detect and respond to EID outbreaks in a timely and effective fashion. Our framework can help evaluate the relative impact of these constraints to identify resourcing priorities for health care system support, in order to inform principled and quantifiable decision making. PMID:27661978

  8. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H. (eds.)

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.).

  9. FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

  10. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  11. Quantitative risk assessment of CO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koornneef, J.; Spruijt, M.; Molag, M.; Ramírez, A.; Turkenburg, W.; Faaij, A.

    2010-01-01

    A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO2 pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperat

  12. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  13. [Risk assessment of chemical agents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottica, Danilo; Grignani, Elena; Bartolucci, Giovanni Battista

    2011-01-01

    The risk assessment of chemical agents is a well known and applied process carried out by Industrial Hygienists and Occupational Physicians based on exposure evaluation. The application of REACH (CE 1907/2006), CLP (CE 1272/2008) and SDS (UE 453/2010) introduces some changes and instruments to carry out the occupational exposure assessment, like new classification of substances, Exposure Scenario, suggested control measures that the Industrial Hygienist and the Occupational Physician must evaluate. If there is not a similar Exposure Scenario to apply a new risk assessment must carried out also by recommended software (ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment; Easy to use workplace EMKG; Stoffenmanager). Looking at the relevance of the control measures and evaluation of Exposure Scenario we report the flowchart of risk assessment and management by the Method of Organisational Congruencies carried out with the Prevention and Protection Service and Occupational Physician Office of the Health Service of the Azienda Provinciale of Trento.

  14. Probabilistic migration modelling focused on functional barrier efficiency and low migration concepts in support of risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandsch, Rainer

    2017-10-01

    Migration modelling provides reliable migration estimates from food-contact materials (FCM) to food or food simulants based on mass-transfer parameters like diffusion and partition coefficients related to individual materials. In most cases, mass-transfer parameters are not readily available from the literature and for this reason are estimated with a given uncertainty. Historically, uncertainty was accounted for by introducing upper limit concepts first, turning out to be of limited applicability due to highly overestimated migration results. Probabilistic migration modelling gives the possibility to consider uncertainty of the mass-transfer parameters as well as other model inputs. With respect to a functional barrier, the most important parameters among others are the diffusion properties of the functional barrier and its thickness. A software tool that accepts distribution as inputs and is capable of applying Monte Carlo methods, i.e., random sampling from the input distributions of the relevant parameters (i.e., diffusion coefficient and layer thickness), predicts migration results with related uncertainty and confidence intervals. The capabilities of probabilistic migration modelling are presented in the view of three case studies (1) sensitivity analysis, (2) functional barrier efficiency and (3) validation by experimental testing. Based on the predicted migration by probabilistic migration modelling and related exposure estimates, safety evaluation of new materials in the context of existing or new packaging concepts is possible. Identifying associated migration risk and potential safety concerns in the early stage of packaging development is possible. Furthermore, dedicated material selection exhibiting required functional barrier efficiency under application conditions becomes feasible. Validation of the migration risk assessment by probabilistic migration modelling through a minimum of dedicated experimental testing is strongly recommended.

  15. NanoSafer vs. 1.1 - Nanomaterial risk assessment using first order modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Keld A.; Saber, Anne T.; Kristensen, Henrik V.

    2013-01-01

    Currently, there are no nanospecific safety data sheets (SDS) fo r manufactured nanomaterials (MN) and there is only limited data available on nanomaterial exposure levels. We have established an advanced control banding tool, NanoSafer, which enables alternative risk assessm ent and guidance...

  16. Climate analyses to assess risks from invasive forest insects: Simple matching to advanced models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert C. Venette

    2017-01-01

    Purpose of Review. The number of invasive alien insects that adversely affect trees and forests continues to increase as do associated ecological, economic, and sociological impacts. Prevention strategies remain the most cost-effective approach to address the issue, but risk management decisions, particularly those affecting international trade,...

  17. Health Risk Assessments of Waste Combustion Emissions Using Surrogate Analyte Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    to DoD health risk assessors are the AeroTrak® 9303 and the DustTrakTM DRX. Both measure PM with 44 aerodynamic diameters larger than 0.3 µm...Warnatz. “Emissions from the Combustion Process in Vegetation,” Fire in the Environment: The Ecological , Atmospheric, and Climatic Importance of

  18. Evaluation of models for metal partitioning and speciation in soils and their use in risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Groenenberg, J.E.

    2011-01-01

    In this thesis models were developed and evaluated which describe metal partitioning and speciation in soils. Both partition-relations and multisurface models were developed and evaluated on their performance for a large set of elements

  19. Caries risk assessment in school children using a reduced Cariogram model without saliva tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Isberg, Per-Erik; Twetman, Svante

    2010-01-01

    To investigate the caries predictive ability of a reduced Cariogram model without salivary tests in schoolchildren.......To investigate the caries predictive ability of a reduced Cariogram model without salivary tests in schoolchildren....

  20. Physical Ability-Task Performance Models: Assessing the Risk of Omitted Variable Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-15

    Variable Bias References Anderson, J. C., & Gerbing, D. W. (1988). Structural equation modeling in practice: A review and recommended two-step...Boomsma, A. (2000). Reporting analysis of covariance structures. Structural Equation Modeling , 7(3), 461-483. Browne, M. W., & Cudeck, R. (1993...Company. Fan, X., Thompson, B., & Wang, L. (1999). Effects of sample size, estimation methods, and model specification on structural equation modeling fit

  1. Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

    2012-01-01

    The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

  2. Assessing safety risk in electricity distribution processes using ET & BA improved technique and its ranking by VIKOR and TOPSIS models in fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Rahmani

    2016-04-01

      Conclusion: The height and electricity are of the main causes of accidents in electricity transmission and distribution industry which caused the overhead power networks to be ranked as high risk. Application of decision-making models in fuzzy environment minimizes the judgment of assessors in the risk assessment process.

  3. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as currently

  4. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  5. Mathematical modeling of postcoinfection with influenza A virus and Streptococcus pneumoniae, with implications for pneumonia and COPD-risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng YH

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Yi-Hsien Cheng,1 Shu-Han You,2 Yi-Jun Lin,3 Szu-Chieh Chen,4,5 Wei-Yu Chen,6 Wei-Chun Chou,2 Nan-Hung Hsieh,7 Chung-Min Liao3 1Institute of Computational Comparative Medicine (ICCM, Department of Anatomy and Physiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA; 2National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, 3Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 4Department of Public Health, 5Department of Family and Community Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, Taichung, 6Department of Biomedical Science and Environmental Biology, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan; 7Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA Background: The interaction between influenza and pneumococcus is important for understanding how coinfection may exacerbate pneumonia. Secondary pneumococcal pneumonia associated with influenza infection is more likely to increase respiratory morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to assess exacerbated inflammatory effects posed by secondary pneumococcal pneumonia, given prior influenza infection. Materials and methods: A well-derived mathematical within-host dynamic model of coinfection with influenza A virus and Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP integrated with dose–response relationships composed of previously published mouse experimental data and clinical studies was implemented to study potentially exacerbated inflammatory responses in pneumonia based on a probabilistic approach. Results: We found that TNFα is likely to be the most sensitive biomarker reflecting inflammatory response during coinfection among three explored cytokines. We showed that the worst inflammatory effects would occur at day 7 SP coinfection, with risk probability of 50% (likely to develop severe

  6. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  7. A Minority Report for Social Work? The Predictive Risk Model (PRM) and the Tuituia Assessment Framework in addressing the needs of New Zealand's Vulnerable Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oak, Eileen

    2016-07-01

    This article examines the viability of the Risk Predictor Model (RPM) and its counterpart the actuarial risk assessment (ARA) tool in the form of the Tuituia Assessment Framework to address child vulnerability in New Zealand. In doing so, it suggests that these types of risk-assessment tools fail to address issues of contingency and complexity at the heart of the relationship-based nature of social work practice. Such developments have considerable implications for the capacity to enhance critical reflexive practice skills, whilst the introduction of these risk tools is occurring at a time when the reflexive space is being eroded as a result of the increased regulation of practice and supervision. It is further asserted that the primary aim of such instruments is not so much to detect risk, but rather to foster professional conformity with these managerialist risk-management systems so prevalent in contemporary Western societies.

  8. Xinhe Mine water inrush risk assessment based on quantification theoretical models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hui; JING Guo-xun; CAI Zheng-long; OU Jian-chun

    2010-01-01

    Taking the Xinhe mine's structure, mine pressure, structural fissure, fault and fault displacement, the distance between fault and water inrush point, thickness of block,water pressure those geological factors which influenced the water inrush as the independent variable, based on these data of water inrush point and water uninrush point, using the method of quantification theory( Ⅰ, Ⅱ ), it would quantitatively disposes the qualitative variable, applied to calculation to evaluate the risk of Xinhe's water inrush.

  9. An IOT Security Risk Autonomic Assessment Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengchao Ma

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In terms of Internet of Things (IOT system with the possibility criterion of fuzziness and randomness security risk, we qualitatively analyze the security risk level of IOT security scene by describing generalization metrics the potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of every major threat scenarios. On this basis, we proposed self-assessment algorithm of IOT security risk, adopting three-dimensional normal cloud model integrated consideration of risk indicators, researching the multi-rule mapping relationship between the qualitative input of safety indicators and the quantitative reasoning of self-assessment. Finally, we build security risk assessment simulation platform, and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm in the premise of substantiating the risk level and the safety criterion domain.

  10. Groundwater nitrate pollution and human health risk assessment by using HHRA model in an agricultural area, NE China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Yuanzheng; Zhao, Xiaobing; Teng, Yanguo; Li, Xiao; Zhang, Junjun; Wu, Jin; Zuo, Rui

    2017-03-01

    In order to learn the pollution circumstance of groundwater nitrate detailedly in Songnen Plain of Northeast China and estimate its potential risk to human health of local residents, a total of 389 groundwater samples were collected in 2014 and studied from residential areas and public water supply wells in 11 cities and counties in southeastern of Songnen Plain. The analysis results showed that the spatial distributions of main chemical components in groundwater had great variations with statistical concentrations in the order of TDS> HCO3> Ca> NO3> Cl> Na> SO4> Mg> K> NH4> NO2. As for NO3, it ranged from less than 0.02mg/L to 497mg/L with an average value of 39.46mg/L indicating an obviously anthropogenic pollution. Even more than 32% of the samples exceeded the Grade III threshold (20mg/L of N) according to China's standard. The results obtained from principal component analysis showed that high NO3 concentration could be attributed to human activities, especially the excessive use of chemical fertilizers in agriculture. Further, a human health risk assessment (HHRA) model derived from the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) was applied to estimate the potential health risk of groundwater nitrate considering both drinking water and dermal contact pathways. The results indicated that potential health risks of adult males and females within about 60% of the area were at the acceptable level, while those within about 40% were beyond the acceptable level. The area at the acceptable level for children covered 49% of the total area while the same value for infants was 37%. The NO3 concentration in southeast and northeast of the study area was the highest so that residents in these regions were at the highest health risk. In conclusion, risk levels for different crowds in the study area varied obviously, generally in the order of infants> children> adult females> adult males, and the potential health risks of residents, especially minors and rural residents

  11. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...... and to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be substantial enough...... be a poor substitute for a proper risk assessment as low potency substances can constitute a risk if the exposure is high enough and vice versa. Examples illustrating the strength and limitations of hazard classification, risk assessment and toxicological potency will be presented with focus on reproductive...

  12. A new model for providing cell-free DNA and risk assessment for chromosome abnormalities in a public hospital setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallerstein, Robert; Jelks, Andrea; Garabedian, Matthew J

    2014-01-01

    Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) offers highly accurate noninvasive screening for Down syndrome. Incorporating it into routine care is complicated. We present our experience implementing a novel program for cfDNA screening, emphasizing patient education, genetic counseling, and resource management. Beginning in January 2013, we initiated a new patient care model in which high-risk patients for aneuploidy received genetic counseling at 12 weeks of gestation. Patients were presented with four pathways for aneuploidy risk assessment and diagnosis: (1) cfDNA; (2) integrated screening; (3) direct-to-invasive testing (chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis); or (4) no first trimester diagnostic testing/screening. Patients underwent follow-up genetic counseling and detailed ultrasound at 18-20 weeks to review first trimester testing and finalize decision for amniocentesis. Counseling and second trimester detailed ultrasound were provided to 163 women. Most selected cfDNA screening (69%) over integrated screening (0.6%), direct-to-invasive testing (14.1%), or no screening (16.6%). Amniocentesis rates decreased following implementation of cfDNA screening (19.0% versus 13.0%, P < 0.05). When counseled about screening options, women often chose cfDNA over integrated screening. This program is a model for patient-directed, efficient delivery of a newly available high-level technology in a public health setting. Genetic counseling is an integral part of patient education and determination of plan of care.

  13. A New Model for Providing Cell-Free DNA and Risk Assessment for Chromosome Abnormalities in a Public Hospital Setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Wallerstein

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Cell-free DNA (cfDNA offers highly accurate noninvasive screening for Down syndrome. Incorporating it into routine care is complicated. We present our experience implementing a novel program for cfDNA screening, emphasizing patient education, genetic counseling, and resource management. Study Design. Beginning in January 2013, we initiated a new patient care model in which high-risk patients for aneuploidy received genetic counseling at 12 weeks of gestation. Patients were presented with four pathways for aneuploidy risk assessment and diagnosis: (1 cfDNA; (2 integrated screening; (3 direct-to-invasive testing (chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis; or (4 no first trimester diagnostic testing/screening. Patients underwent follow-up genetic counseling and detailed ultrasound at 18–20 weeks to review first trimester testing and finalize decision for amniocentesis. Results. Counseling and second trimester detailed ultrasound were provided to 163 women. Most selected cfDNA screening (69% over integrated screening (0.6%, direct-to-invasive testing (14.1%, or no screening (16.6%. Amniocentesis rates decreased following implementation of cfDNA screening (19.0% versus 13.0%, P<0.05. Conclusion. When counseled about screening options, women often chose cfDNA over integrated screening. This program is a model for patient-directed, efficient delivery of a newly available high-level technology in a public health setting. Genetic counseling is an integral part of patient education and determination of plan of care.

  14. Evaluating Computer-Based Assessment in a Risk-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakrzewski, Stan; Steven, Christine; Ricketts, Chris

    2009-01-01

    There are three purposes for evaluation: evaluation for action to aid the decision making process, evaluation for understanding to further enhance enlightenment and evaluation for control to ensure compliance to standards. This article argues that the primary function of evaluation in the "Catherine Wheel" computer-based assessment (CBA) cyclic…

  15. Validation and evaluation of predicitive models in hazard assessment and risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beguería, S.

    2007-01-01

    The paper deals with the validation and evaluation of mathematical models in natural hazard analysis, with a special focus on establishing their predictive power. Although most of the tools and statistics available are common to general classification models, some peculiarites arise in the case of h

  16. Malaria Risk Assessment for the Republic of Korea Based on Models of Mosquito Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 treatment, among a myriad of olher factors . Because the Plasmodium parasite is...Yam;lda All. kleilli Rueda All. belellme Rueda VPH 0.8 • 0.6• ~ ~ 0.’ 0.2 0 H P V VPH Figure I, Illustration of the concept of the mal-area as it...the percentage of the sampled area that these parameters cover. The value for VPH could be used as a simplified index of malaria risk to compare

  17. A probabilistic model for simultaneous exposure to multiple compounds from food and its use for risk-benefit assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voet, van der H.; Mul, de A.; Klaveren, van J.D.

    2007-01-01

    A model is presented which allows to quantify the simultaneous distribution of the exposure to two compounds, for example a health-risk and a health promoting compound. The model considers the total dietary intake, and can be used as a first step to study the effects on the balance between risks and

  18. Regional groundwater flow and tritium transport modeling and risk assessment of the underground test area, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1997-10-01

    underground testing areas on a regional scale. The groundwater flow model was used in conjunction with a particle-tracking code to define the pathlines followed by groundwater particles originating from 415 points associated with 253 nuclear test locations. Three of the most rapid pathlines were selected for transport simulations. These pathlines are associated with three nuclear test locations, each representing one of the three largest testing areas. These testing locations are: BOURBON on Yucca Flat, HOUSTON on Central Pahute Mesa, and TYBO on Western Pahute Mesa. One-dimensional stochastic tritium transport simulations were performed for the three pathlines using the Monte Carlo method with Latin hypercube sampling. For the BOURBON and TYBO pathlines, sources of tritium from other tests located along the same pathline were included in the simulations. Sensitivity analyses were also performed on the transport model to evaluate the uncertainties associated with the geologic model, the rates of groundwater flow, the tritium source, and the transport parameters. Tritium concentration predictions were found to be mostly sensitive to the regional geology in controlling the horizontal and vertical position of transport pathways. The simulated concentrations are also sensitive to matrix diffusion, an important mechanism governing the migration of tritium in fractured carbonate and volcanic rocks. Source term concentration uncertainty is most important near the test locations and decreases in importance as the travel distance increases. The uncertainty on groundwater flow rates is as important as that on matrix diffusion at downgradient locations. The risk assessment was performed to provide conservative and bounding estimates of the potential risks to human health and the environment from tritium in groundwater. Risk models were designed by coupling scenario-specific tritium intake with tritium dose models and cancer and genetic risk estimates using the Monte Carlo method

  19. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  20. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  1. Global ozone and air quality: a multi-model assessment of risks to human health and crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ellingsen

    2008-02-01

    assessment of the risks to human health and vegetation from changing levels of surface ozone.

  2. Global ozone and air quality: a multi-model assessment of risks to human health and crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellingsen, K.; Gauss, M.; van Dingenen, R.; Dentener, F. J.; Emberson, L.; Fiore, A. M.; Schultz, M. G.; Stevenson, D. S.; Ashmore, M. R.; Atherton, C. S.; Bergmann, D. J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H.; Hauglustaine, D. A.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Horowitz, L. W.; Krol, M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Lawrence, M. G.; van Noije, T.; Pyle, J.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.; Savage, N.; Strahan, S.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Wild, O.

    2008-02-01

    Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, eighteen atmospheric models from the U.S., Europe, and Japan calculated present (2000) and future (2030) concentrations of ozone at the Earth's surface with hourly temporal resolution. Comparison of model results with surface ozone measurements in 14 world regions indicates that levels and seasonality of surface ozone in North America and Europe are characterized well by global models, with annual average biases typically within 5-10 nmol/mol. However, comparison with rather sparse observations over some regions suggest that most models overestimate annual ozone by 15-20 nmol/mol in some locations. Two scenarios from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and one from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) have been implemented in the models. This study focuses on changes in near-surface ozone and their effects on human health and vegetation. Different indices and air quality standards are used to characterise air quality. We show that often the calculated changes in the different indices are closely inter-related. Indices using lower thresholds are more consistent between the models, and are recommended for global model analysis. Our analysis indicates that currently about two-thirds of the regions considered do not meet health air quality standards, whereas only 2-4 regions remain below the threshold. Calculated air quality exceedances show moderate deterioration by 2030 if current emissions legislation is followed and slight improvements if current emissions reduction technology is used optimally. For the "business as usual" scenario severe air quality problems are predicted. We show that model simulations of air quality indices are particularly sensitive to how well ozone is represented, and improved accuracy is needed for future projections. Additional measurements are needed to allow a more quantitative assessment of the risks to

  3. SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF LEVEES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Rosidi

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A seismic risk assessment procedure for earth embankments and levees is presented. The procedure consists of three major elements: (1 probability of ground motion at the site, (2 probability of levee failure given a level of ground motion has occurred and (3 expected loss resulting from the failure. This paper discusses the first two elements of the risk assessment. The third element, which includes economic losses and human casualty, will not be presented herein. The ground motions for risk assessment are developed using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. A two-dimensional finite element analysis is performed to estimate the dynamic responses of levee, and the probability of levee failure is calculated using the levee fragility curve. The overall objective of the assessment is to develop an analytical tool for assessing the failure risk and the effectiveness of various levee strengthening alternatives for risk reduction. An example of the procedure, as it applies to a levee built along the perimeter of an island for flood protection and water storage, is presented. Variations in earthquake ground motion and soil and water conditions at the site are incorporated in the risk assessment. The effects of liquefaction in the foundation soils are also considered.

  4. Credit risk assessment model for Jordanian commercial banks: Neural scoring approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hussain Ali Bekhet

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the increase in the number of non-performing loans and competition in the banking market, most of the Jordanian commercial banks are reluctant to use data mining tools to support credit decisions. Artificial neural networks represent a new family of statistical techniques and promising data mining tools that have been used successfully in classification problems in many domains. This paper proposes two credit scoring models using data mining techniques to support loan decisions for the Jordanian commercial banks. Loan application evaluation would improve credit decision effectiveness and control loan office tasks, as well as save analysis time and cost. Both accepted and rejected loan applications, from different Jordanian commercial banks, were used to build the credit scoring models. The results indicate that the logistic regression model performed slightly better than the radial basis function model in terms of the overall accuracy rate. However, the radial basis function was superior in identifying those customers who may default.

  5. Rat postimplantation embryo culture as a tool for internal dose modelling in embryotoxicity risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Piersma AH; Verhoef A; Klaassen R; van Eijkeren JCH; Olling M; LEO; LBO

    1997-01-01

    De bruikbaarheid van de postimplantatie embryokweek voor interne dosis-modellering van embryotoxiciteit werd geevalueerd met carbamazepine als modelstof. Blootstelling via het kweekmedium leidde tot neuraalbuisdefecten, en blootstelling via amnionholte of exocoeloom veroorzaakte slechts lokale effe

  6. Multimedia fate modeling and risk assessment of a commonly used azole fungicide climbazole at the river basin scale in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian-Qian; Ying, Guang-Guo; Chen, Zhi-Feng; Liu, You-Sheng; Liu, Wang-Rong; Zhao, Jian-Liang

    2015-07-01

    Climbazole is an antidandruff active ingredient commonly used in personal care products, but little is known about its environmental fate. The aim of this study was to evaluate the fate of climbazole in water, sediment, soil and air compartments of the whole China by using a level III multimedia fugacity model. The usage of climbazole was calculated to be 345 t in the whole China according to the market research data, and after wastewater treatment a total emission of 245 t was discharged into the receiving environment with approximately 93% into the water compartment and 7% into the soil compartment. The developed fugacity model was successfully applied to estimate the contamination levels and mass inventories of climbazole in various environmental compartments of the river basins in China. The predicted environmental concentration ranges of climbazole were: 0.20-367 ng/L in water, and 0.009-25.2 ng/g dry weight in sediment. The highest concentration was mainly found in Haihe River basin and the lowest was in basins of Tibet and Xinjiang regions. The mass inventory of climbazole in the whole China was estimated to be 294 t, with 6.79% in water, 83.7% in sediment, 9.49% in soil, and 0.002% in air. Preliminary risk assessment showed high risks in sediment posed by climbazole in 2 out of 58 basins in China. The medium risks in water and sediment were mostly concentrated in north China. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first report on the emissions and multimedia fate of climbazole in the river basins of the whole China.

  7. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  8. Acute Heart Failure Registry: Risk Assessment Model in Decompensated Heart Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Anne; Rodrigues, Bruno; Nunes, Sara; Baptista, Rui; Marmelo, Bruno; Moreira, Davide; Gama, Pedro; Nunes, Luís; Santos, Oliveira; Cabral, Costa

    2016-01-01

    Background Heart failure (HF) is a highly prevalent syndrome. Although the long-term prognostic factors have been identified in chronic HF, this information is scarcer with respect to patients with acute HF. despite available data in the literature on long-term prognostic factors in chronic HF, data on acute HF patients are more scarce. Objectives To develop a predictor of unfavorable prognostic events in patients hospitalized for acute HF syndromes, and to characterize a group at higher risk regarding their clinical characteristics, treatment and outcomes. Methods cohort study of 600 patients admitted for acute HF, defined according to the European Society of Cardiology criteria. Primary endpoint for score derivation was defined as all-cause mortality and / or rehospitalization for HF at 12 months. For score validation, the following endpoints were used: all-cause mortality and / or readmission for HF at 6, 12 and 24 months. The exclusion criteria were: high output HF; patients with acute myocardial infraction, acute myocarditis, infectious endocarditis, pulmonary infection, pulmonary artery hypertension and severe mitral stenosis. Results 505 patients were included, and prognostic predicting factors at 12 months were identified. One or two points were assigned according to the odds ratio (OR) obtained (p < 0.05). After the total score value was determined, a 4-point cut-off was determined for each ROC curve at 12 months. Two groups were formed according to the number of points, group A < 4 points, and group B = 4 points. Group B was composed of older patients, with higher number of comorbidities and predictors of the combined endpoint at 6, 12 and 24 months, as linearly represented in the survival curves (Log rank). Conclusions This risk score enabled the identification of a group with worse prognosis at 12 months.

  9. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  10. Using the Maxent program for species distribution modelling to assess invasion risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E.; Venette, R.C

    2015-01-01

    MAXENT is a software package used to relate known species occurrences to information describing the environment, such as climate, topography, anthropogenic features or soil data, and forecast the presence or absence of a species at unsampled locations. This particular method is one of the most popular species distribution modelling techniques because of its consistent strong predictive performance and its ease to implement. This chapter discusses the decisions and techniques needed to prepare a correlative climate matching model for the native range of an invasive alien species and use this model to predict the potential distribution of this species in a potentially invaded range (i.e. a novel environment) by using MAXENT for the Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus) as a case study. The chapter discusses and demonstrates the challenges that are associated with this approach and examines the inherent limitations that come with using MAXENT to forecast distributions of invasive alien species.

  11. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  12. Modeling aeolian transport in response to succession, disturbance and future climate: Dynamic long-term risk assessment for contaminant redistribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breshears, D.D.; Kirchner, T.B.; Whicker, J.J.; Field, J.P.; Allen, C.D.

    2012-01-01

    Aeolian sediment transport is a fundamental process redistributing sediment, nutrients, and contaminants in dryland ecosystems. Over time frames of centuries or longer, horizontal sediment fluxes and associated rates of contaminant transport are likely to be influenced by succession, disturbances, and changes in climate, yet models of horizontal sediment transport that account for these fundamental factors are lacking, precluding in large part accurate assessment of human health risks associated with persistent soil-bound contaminants. We present a simple model based on empirical measurements of horizontal sediment transport (predominantly saltation) to predict potential contaminant transport rates for recently disturbed sites such as a landfill cover. Omnidirectional transport is estimated within vegetation that changes using a simple Markov model that simulates successional trajectory and considers three types of short-term disturbances (surface fire, crown fire, and drought-induced plant mortality) under current and projected climates. The model results highlight that movement of contaminated soil is sensitive to vegetation dynamics and increases substantially (e.g., > fivefold) when disturbance and/or future climate are considered. The time-dependent responses in horizontal sediment fluxes and associated contaminant fluxes were sensitive to variability in the timing of disturbance, with longer intervals between disturbance allowing woody plants to become dominant and crown fire and drought abruptly reducing woody plant cover. Our results, which have direct implications for contaminant transport and landfill management in the specific context of our assessment, also have general relevance because they highlight the need to more fully account for vegetation dynamics, disturbance, and changing climate in aeolian process studies. ?? 2011.

  13. Integrated modelling for assessing the risk of groundwater contaminants to human health and surface water ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKnight, Ursula S.; Rasmussen, Jes; Funder, Simon G.;

    2010-01-01

    for evaluating the impact of a TCE groundwater plume, located in an area with protected drinking water interests, to human health and surface water ecosystems. This is accomplished by coupling the system dynamicsbased decision support system CARO-Plus to the aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX via an analytical...

  14. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  15. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  16. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  17. Improvement, Verification, and Refinement of Spatially-Explicit Exposure Models in Risk Assessment - SEEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    on the NPL in 1990, and is located east of the demolition debris site. The shot fall zone is to the east of Gun Club Creek marshes (GPC, 2009...vegetation that comprised the rodents’ diets . Vegetation concentrations come from plant material that was collected at each trap site where a small...through either incidental soil ingestion with the diet , or by direct contact with the soil while foraging. The model was developed for APG Gun Club

  18. Supply Chain Modeling: Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM) Summary of Development and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Stockpile Requirements,” for the Strategic Materials Office of the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA). The views, opinions, and findings should not be... Logistics Agency Strategic Materials (DLA SM) to provide the capability to analyze supply chains of strategic and critical materials and the... material feedstock requirements. The fundamental approach is mass flow analysis, from raw material through each step in production. The model must also

  19. Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling for assessing risk of bisphosphonate-related osteonecrosis of the jaw

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedghizadeh, Parish P.; Jones, Allan C.; LaVallee, Chris; Jelliffe, Roger W.; Le, Anh D.; Lee, Peter; Kiss, Andrew; Neely, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Objective We hypothesized that patients with bisphosphonate (BP)-related osteonecrosis of the jaw (BRONJ) accumulate higher levels of BP in bone than those without BRONJ. Study Design Using the Pmetrics® package and published data, we designed a population pharmacokinetic model of pamidronate concentration in plasma and bone and derived a toxic bone BP threshold of 0.2 mM. With the model, and using patient individual BP duration and bone mineral content estimated from lean body weight, we calculated bone BP levels in 153 subjects. Results Mean bone BP in 69 BRONJ cases was higher than in 84 controls (0.20 vs. 0.10 mM, P<0.001) consistent with the toxic bone threshold of 0.2 mM. BRONJ was also associated with longer duration BP therapy (5.3 vs. 2.7 years, P<0.001), older age (76 vs. 70 years, P<0.001), and Asian race (49% vs. 14%, P<0.001). Conclusions Our model accurately discriminated BRONJ cases from controls, among patients on BP therapy. PMID:23246224

  20. Probabilistic Modeling for Risk Assessment of California Ground Water Contamination by Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, M.; Troiano, J.; Spurlock, F.

    2007-12-01

    The California Department of Pesticide Regulation (DPR) is responsible for the registration of pesticides in California. DPR's Environmental Monitoring Branch evaluates the potential for pesticide active ingredients to move to ground water under legal agricultural use conditions. Previous evaluations were primarily based on threshold values for specific persistence and mobility properties of pesticides as prescribed in the California Pesticide Contamination Prevention Act of 1985. Two limitations identified with that process were the univariate nature where interactions of the properties were not accounted for, and the inability to accommodate multiple values of a physical-chemical property. We addressed these limitations by developing a probabilistic modeling method based on prediction of potential well water concentrations. A mechanistic pesticide transport model, LEACHM, is used to simulate sorption, degradation and transport of a candidate pesticide through the root zone. A second empirical model component then simulates pesticide degradation and transport through the vadose zone to a receiving ground water aquifer. Finally, degradation during transport in the aquifer to the well screen is included in calculating final potential well concentrations. Using Monte Carlo techniques, numerous LEACHM simulations are conducted using random samples of the organic carbon normalized soil adsorption coefficients (Koc) and soil dissipation half-life values derived from terrestrial field dissipation (TFD) studies. Koc and TFD values are obtained from gamma distributions fitted to pooled data from agricultural-use pesticides detected in California ground water: atrazine, simazine, diuron, bromacil, hexazinone, and norflurazon. The distribution of predicted well water concentrations for these pesticides is in good agreement with concentrations measured in domestic wells in coarse, leaching vulnerable soils of Fresno and Tulure Counties. The leaching potential of a new

  1. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... of guidance documents. These deal with the peer review of existing pest risk assessments, a framework for conducting risk assessments which harmonise standards set by the International Plant Protection Convention and the legislative requirements of the EU, and extension of this framework to include......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  2. Mathematical model for the assessment of fracture risk associated with osteoporosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinis, Jairson; Pereira, Ana I.; Fonseca, Elza M.

    2012-09-01

    Osteoporosis is a skeletal disease characterized by low bone mass. It is considered a worldwide public health problem that affects a large number of people, in particularly for women with more than 50 years old. The occurrence pattern of osteoporosis in a population may be related to several factors, including socio-economic factors such as income, educational attainment, and factors related to lifestyle such as diet and physical activity. These and other aspects have increasingly been identified as determining the occurrence of various diseases, including osteoporosis. This work proposes a mathematical model that provides the level of osteoporosis in the patient. Preliminary numerical results are presented.

  3. Mode of action based risk assessment of the botanical food-borne alkenylbenzene apiol from parsley using physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling and read-across from safrole

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alajlouni, A.M.; Al-Malahmeh, A.J.; Kiwamoto, Reiko; Wesseling, Sebastiaan; Soffers, A.E.M.F.; Al-Subeihi, A.A.A.; Vervoort, Jacques; Rietjens, I.M.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    The present study developed physiologically-based kinetic (PBK) models for the alkenylbenzene apiol in order to facilitate risk assessment based on read-across from the related alkenylbenzene safrole. Model predictions indicate that in rat liver the formation of the 1'-sulfoxy metabolite is about

  4. Cancer risk assessment of human exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) via indoor and outdoor dust based on probit model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Yuan; Shao, Dingding; Li, Ning; Yang, Gelin; Zhang, Qiuyun; Zeng, Lixuan; Luo, Jiwen; Zhong, Wenfeng

    2015-03-01

    In the present study, the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in indoor dust and outdoor dust including road and window dust around the traffic road in Hunan Province, China, were sampled and detected. The ∑PAHs in indoor dust ranged from 5007-24,236 ng g(-1), with a median of 14,049 ng g(-1). The ∑PAHs in road dust ranged from 3644-12,875 ng g(-1), with a median of 10,559 ng g(-1). The ∑PAHs in window dust ranged from 803-12,590 ng g(-1), with a median of 5459 ng g(-1). Similar pattern of PAHs was observed in road and window dust except in H3W and H4W samples, which was dominated by naphthalene (Nap), benzo(b+k)fluoranthene (B(b+k)F), phenanthrene (Phe), and fluorine (Fle). Indoor dust showed slightly different PAHs profiles, which was dominated by Nap, fluoranthene (Fla) and Phe. Risk assessment indicated that dermal contact and dust ingestion exposure pathways were more important than the inhalation pathway. Cancer risk of PAHs via dust varied from 2.73 × 10(-8)-8.04 × 10(-6), with a median of 2.06 × 10(-6) for children, and from 2 × 10(-8)-5.89 × 10(-6), with a median of 1.52 × 10(-6) for adult. Probit model showed that 76 and 71 % of samples in the sampling area would result in the risk of children and adult exposure to PAHs via dust higher than the acceptable level (1 × 10(-6)), respectively.

  5. Assessing the impact of uncertainty on flood risk estimates with reliability analysis using 1-D and 2-D hydraulic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Altarejos-García

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of reliability techniques such as Rosenblueth's Point-Estimate Method (PEM as a practical alternative to more precise Monte Carlo approaches to get estimates of the mean and variance of uncertain flood parameters water depth and velocity. These parameters define the flood severity, which is a concept used for decision-making in the context of flood risk assessment. The method proposed is particularly useful when the degree of complexity of the hydraulic models makes Monte Carlo inapplicable in terms of computing time, but when a measure of the variability of these parameters is still needed. The capacity of PEM, which is a special case of numerical quadrature based on orthogonal polynomials, to evaluate the first two moments of performance functions such as the water depth and velocity is demonstrated in the case of a single river reach using a 1-D HEC-RAS model. It is shown that in some cases, using a simple variable transformation, statistical distributions of both water depth and velocity approximate the lognormal. As this distribution is fully defined by its mean and variance, PEM can be used to define the full probability distribution function of these flood parameters and so allowing for probability estimations of flood severity. Then, an application of the method to the same river reach using a 2-D Shallow Water Equations (SWE model is performed. Flood maps of mean and standard deviation of water depth and velocity are obtained, and uncertainty in the extension of flooded areas with different severity levels is assessed. It is recognized, though, that whenever application of Monte Carlo method is practically feasible, it is a preferred approach.

  6. Impact of adding therapeutic recommendations to risk assessments from a prediction model for postoperative nausea and vomiting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappen, T. H.; Vergouwe, Y.; van Wolfswinkel, L.; Kalkman, C. J.; Moons, K. G. M.; van Klei, W. A.

    2015-01-01

    Background. In a large cluster-randomized trial on the impact of a prediction model, presenting the calculated risk of postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) on-screen (assistive approach) increased the administration of risk-dependent PONV prophylaxis by anaesthetists. This change in therapeutic

  7. Modeling potential scenarios of the Tangjiashan Lake outburst and risk assessment in the downstream valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidyaeva, Vera; Chernomorets, Sergey; Krylenko, Inna; Wei, Fangqiang; Petrakov, Dmitry; Su, Pengcheng; Yang, Hongjuan; Xiong, Junnan

    2017-09-01

    This research is devoted to Tangjiashan Lake, a quake landslide-dammed lake, situated in Sichuan Province, China, which was formed by a landslide triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake on 12 May 2008. A STREAM_2D two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Russia was applied to simulate the process of two flood scenarios: 1, lake dam outbreak, and 2, dam overtopping. An artificial dam outbreak was made after the earthquake to lower the water level of the lake in 2008, which led to a great flood with a maximum water discharge of more than 6400 m3/s. The negative impact of the flood was reduced by a timely evacuation of the population. Flood hazards still remain in the event of new landslides into the lake and lake dam overtopping (Scenario 2), in which case a maximum water discharge at the dam crest would reach 5000 m3/s, placing the population of Shabacun and Shilingzi villages in the zone of flood impact.

  8. Production of high-resolution digital terrain models in mountain regions to support risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianfranco Forlani

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Demand for high-accuracy digital terrain models (DTMs in the Alpine region has been steadily increasing in recent years in valleys as well as high mountains. In the former, the determination of the geo-mechanical parameters of rock masses is the main objective; global warming, which causes the retreat of glaciers and the reduction of permafrost, is the main drive of the latter. The consequence is the instability of rock masses in high mountains: new cost-effective monitoring techniques are required to deal with the peculiar characteristics of such environment, delivering results at short notice. After discussing the design and execution of photogrammetric surveys in such areas, with particular reference to block orientation and block control, the paper describes the production of DTMs of rock faces and glacier fronts with light instrumentation and data acquisition techniques, allowing highly automated data processing. To this aim, the PhotoGPS technique and structure from motion algorithms are used to speed up the orientation process, while dense matching area-based correlation techniques are used to generate the DTMs.

  9. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Apel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the 'German Research Network of Natural Disasters' (DFNK the working group 'Flood Risk Analysis' investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system. The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results

  10. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc.......A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...

  11. Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework, southwest of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamani, Reza; Akhond-Ali, Ali-Mohammad; Roozbahani, Abbas; Fattahi, Rouhollah

    2017-08-01

    Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Gi